ES

RenkoSniper

I do a very similar thing on FESX, wich is a perfected way from trading ES for years. Gamma levels, and zero Gamma line for the regime. Then I'll compute vanna and and charm, wich give me a daily bias, I'll also see if vstoxx is in contango. Positions are made via a weekly plan that gets tweaked daily, so by friday I'll have 3 to 5 open positions that max each other out. I now do everything by hand, would be cool to read the PDF. Look into my profile for more info or if you'd like a brainstorm session.

ShotBandicoot7

Leverage the 10k to the tits with short SP500 futures. ES is your way. Stop-loss such that you pull the trigger at 10k drawdown.

OldHamburger7923

Sell futures, /ES. You'll make $50 per point the market drops. Costs like $5 each

Special-Age6210

Oil and /ES Puts/short Calls since Jan Was +50 %ytd late March .. negative 60% now

trsx5

We all have our nemesis ticker. Mine is $SNDK and /ES

1098duc_w_the_termi

ES is gonna get pinned to 7150. Last 30 min of trading are a waste of time

PROMlSED

Thinking longer term 1-2 OTM puts and an /ES hedge is the play…maybe

WillTheGreat

This rally was kinda expected or at least most traders following acknowledged existed once SPX blew throw JPM’s hedge collar sandwich at 6850. The gamma exposure skyrocketed, meaning dealers had to keep buying calls and buying ES to cover. The next level was 7000, and the gamma exposure massive there too and it blew past that resistance and from there it was 7025 after 7025 it was just an empty void. Short capitulation happened at 6850. I completely expect the broader market to pullback through earning season once gamma is re-established. The rally was a bit of an anomaly, the supply shock and geopolitics is not completely certain, will definitely have impact to guidance for Q3 Compound it with short covering and that’s how you got your squeeze leading up to opex(today).

trsx5

Look at the daily chart on /ES - you just have to laugh.

dontslambro

ES futures have moved 5% green all week. wild

SocraticGoats

A week? ES has had 13 green days in a row if you ignore those few hours of trading on good friday.

TopTrey9

I mean with the way we’re grinding up. It’s going to take a news story or a tweet to crater the market. And of course that’s gonna happen in a microsecond literally within a one minute candle on ES…

daedalus_dance

RSI2 on ES1 E-Mini Futures (S&P 500) is 99.46 according to my chart. I would short here but it'll be pumped.

Boys4Ever

All futures Rising /BZ indicates rising oil prices. Early indicator of inflation and economic stress. Dropping /6E means dollar rising which indicates rising cost of financing similar to increasing rates. TOS has dollar futures, but I cannot get mine to display so I use Euro as it runs inverse. Rising /10Y indicates yields rising. When it hits 5 time to panic. Rising /VX means growing fear. North of 19 early stress. 25-30 stress and above panic. Rising /ES and /NQ bullish behavior. Can also add Russel 2000 and DOW for confirmation but these two are what I follow. I copy paste my panel to ChatGPT and ask for an analysis based on momentum trend as well as shift in sentiment. Ultimately, I decide but nothing wrong with getting assistance. Every CFO I've worked for worked this way.

Toe_Shanks

Kind of answered your own question there. These are not Euro style like SPX so if they're itm then yes there is an inherent risk of early assignment, but not a guarantee. If you close them out before settlement, then also yes, you won't have anything to worry about. Since the start of Iran CL has been carrying a fair amount of volatility and extrinsic value until the final moments and it only stops trading 30min before close. GC though stops trading at 1:30et so opening a trade in the morning, especially a bwb, isn't going to leave much juice to squeeze whether a credit or debit. Pennies in front of a steamroller, or fuzz off a grape as he said lol. Another thing to remember, which isn't going to apply directly here but you'll still notice. Is that the pricing on spreads is different enough between options on futures and their etf/index counterpart that it sometimes makes a strategy that works on one incompatible with the other. ES/SPX, RTY/RUT, NQ/NDX for example have a more obvious skew in their pricing because of the Euro vs American expirations. CL/USO are more loosely correlated than GC/GLD, but it still may work in your case. CL tracks WTI, it doesn't hold WTI, and it doesn't track the whole thing. USO tracks WTI by holding the front month contract, not pysical oil itself, and not the whole timeline. This causes some drag and further separates the resulting move that one might see versus the other as time goes on. Think of WTI as the whole curve, USO only tracks a slice of it at the front. So for a single or two day hedge you should be fine, but anything on a longer timeframe then USO won't provide quite as tight of a hedge as you think it will. GC/GLD is the opposite story. GLD holds bullion, not the contract, so it's a much tighter correlation without the drag that USO has and would provide a better hedge. Think of CL/USO as a derivative of a derivative, and GC/GLD as spot for spot. But with the points I made above, the GC/GLD trade you're wanting to take may not be as profitable as you think it will be because of how little time will be left once you open it. If you want to branch out to trading options on futures in the same way you have been trading, go for it. But the same strategy you're using on SPX/SPY might not work for CL/USO, GC/GLD, NQ/NDX/QQQ, RTY/RUT/IWM. But you currently have a strategy that's working. As Steve Clark said, "Do more of what works and less of what doesn't"

OurNewestMember

1. learn the settlement characteristics. Some options are physically settled, some financially. This also affects how close to expiration you can carry positions (see next point) 2. Learn the delivery basics. Mainly, what your broker does around that time. Many retail brokers won't let you take physical delivery, so the flow is like this: trade futures options, options are exercised or assigned (possibly early) and then the resulting futures position (sometimes only a few hours old) must be liquidated by you, or your broker will call you and tell you to close out or they will do it for you. Ie, If you're running a volatility strategy, you need to know any non-obvious dates or limits that might affect, say, your gamma positioning (eg, due to delivery rules on the underlying that will affect what you can do with the options) 3. You should definitely understand rates and also carry in general. Do you know how to find the comparable strikes between ES and SPY, for example? Do you know how to trade or avoid the dividend? 4. US taxes can get confusing for things like "mixed straddles", fyi 5. The basics: are you trading American style or European? AM or PM expiration? When does the spot/cash market stop trading? (And therefore liquidity dries up). Etc 6. Margin. Obviously futures margin is separate from securities margin. And it's risk-based. The carry on the margin/debits is a struggle for many people. Daily cash sweeps are not great, but it sounds like you want to avoid holding outrights anyway 7. More basics. 18 month options on USO have the same underlying ticker as the 0 DTE options. Not the case for CL options. Don't screw up your calculations for strikes and carry when working over any duration Anyway, nothing inherently stops you. But often hedging like this mainly adds complication (not always, though). If you want to open an options spread in CL and hedge with USO, it's possible. Not great, but it can work. IIRC, CL options are American style, so early assignment is on the table (which shouldn't be a huge deal, but carrying the outright can be a pain) -- similar to USO options anyway.

Accurate-Exchange298

Great post — deep ITM calendars on SPX are genuinely underexplored and your analysis is already more rigorous than most. Let me add some color on each risk you raised, plus a couple you didn't mention. **On bid-ask spreads** You're right that deep ITM SPX options can have wide markets, but the real killer is *slippage on the diagonal exit*. When you close, you're simultaneously buying back the short and selling the long. In a fast-moving tape, the two legs can move against you independently before your combo order fills. Always use the native SPX combo order on CBOE — never leg in or out. Mid-price on the spread itself is usually achievable in normal conditions; getting cute trying to improve each leg separately will cost you. **On vega risk — this is your most important consideration** Here's the math that matters: deep ITM calls have delta approaching 1.0, which means their vega approaches *zero*. At 30-40% ITM, both legs are essentially trading like synthetic stock. The vega differential you're worried about is real but shrinks dramatically the deeper ITM you go. The sweet spot for your strategy is actually *extreme* depth — 40-50% ITM — where both legs are nearly pure delta and vega barely registers. Paradoxically, the shallower end of your range (30% ITM) carries more vega risk than the deeper end. **On gamma at expiry** Your mitigation (close at 30+ DTE) is correct, and I'd actually tighten that to 45 DTE given how gamma accelerates on SPX. The other thing to know: SPX settles AM on expiration Friday, which means you lose the ability to close the short leg on Thursday afternoon if something weird happens overnight. Roll or close by Thursday close — never hold to AM settlement on a position this size. **On closing-side bid-ask eating profit** Yes, and it's worse than the opening side because you're now a *motivated seller* of the long. The market knows time is running out. Budget 0.3-0.5% of SPX notional for round-trip slippage in your return models — if the trade still works after that haircut, you're good. **On IV and deep ITM** This is where your intuition is mostly right but the nuance matters. For extremely deep ITM (delta 0.90+), IV changes have minimal impact on option price because intrinsic value dominates. Your real exposure is to the *difference* in vega between the two strikes, not absolute IV. Since the 18-month leg has more vega than the 12-month leg, a sharp IV *drop* (like post-earnings calm or a volatility crush) slightly hurts you — the long loses more time premium than the short. A sharp IV *rise* slightly helps. But at true 40-50% ITM depth, these effects are small enough to largely ignore. **Two risks you didn't mention** *Early assignment on the short leg* — SPX is European-settled so this literally cannot happen. This is one of the strongest structural reasons to use SPX over SPY or ES options for this strategy. No assignment risk, period. *Margin/capital treatment* — Depending on your broker, a deep ITM debit calendar may be margined as a naked short position on the short leg until the system recognizes the hedge. Call your broker before putting this on at size. TastyTrade and IBKR are generally good at recognizing the structure; some retail platforms are not. **Your volatility bet angle** Completely valid. Deep ITM calendars as a low-cost long-vega play when VIX is crushed (sub-15) is a legitimate institutional strategy. The position is essentially long the vol term structure spread — if front-month IV rises more than back-month, you win twice. Just be aware the *timing* of that vol expansion matters; you can be right and still bleed theta waiting. **Bottom line on your return target** 12-15% annualized on a structure with \~40% downside barrier is genuinely compelling relative to IG bonds. The main execution risk is slippage; the main structural risk is a fast vol crush on the closing leg. Both are manageable with disciplined entry sizing and a hard rule to close at 45 DTE. The strategy is sound — your analysis got the key risks right.

Then-Restaurant6376

Fuck all that shit I say run it 9:45 that's the 1st 15 min 🕯 it closes green 5k on atm /just itm calls spy,spx,/ES spx hold till close after it moves your way throw on a trailing stop at 10% ish or just stare at ir all day ready to mkt close if it slows down or watch the $VOLD on a split screen if it falls close its been pumping 5 min before close tho so if you play cash settled index you can just let it close and tis over woulda made bank today or do that other gay quitter thing or put it back in VOO and keep adding shit you were happy doing that so what you made a mistake you tried something new and it went badly o well this shit isn't a crisis you need counseling for i was addicted to herion for 10 years that's a fucken crisis every day but bro you'll get it back way faster stable investing in your voo then just pulling out you know that you got your ass kicked so what at least you fought dont change schools cuz you lost one fight that will only fuck you up more have some heart give it time if you want to fuck with options then only use what you can loose 500 1000 you know hits you can take if you loose dont add till your long term port is up to where it was when you first pulled also dont take my advice I was addicted to HERION for 10 years I know nothing about addiction LOL I am learning options too I have a system I fallow tho I started badly but I only han 1000 or so to start now I have 700 ish its been three months soon as I stopped thinking about money and started thinking about my plan it started working if a trade is moving against me I close at a small loss ASAP or not moving in 2 days no maybe it'll turn shit its kinda boring and grindy like leveling up on some rpg's but it works find a group who knows wtf they are doing learn from taking their trades dont guess idk I just hate to see ppl quit something that can make their life better and damm that shit hurts your pride to just give up and watch others make it look easy you can do it if you want but you gotta get some discipline thats what I think 🤔 peace and God's luck my friend

PabloooG

Volume bars on ES and NQ. Maybe! It’s all just hunches and analysis that we use to create our individual thesis

USSZim

Yeah, I joke but that was exactly the plan. Sold half to cover the position, then sold at Friday's highs because I was 50/50 on whether it would continue or consolidate for a few days after that. The puts were based on the top wicking forming at 7000 ES (the futures derivative of SPX), so I was only giving it 3 points from my entry as a stop. If it made new highs from where I entered, I likely would have stopped out at 1 on the contracts, a 30% loss.

Napster-mp3

Buy an ES-335

Ok-Piano8789

wanted to wait until tomorrow morning but i cant, short ES 7012

Ok-Piano8789

some of u are calling me a retarded ber, may i remind you i literally went to the bull statue at the lows the purchased ES futures on my phone, and you were invited! [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1s7580i/comment/od829gq/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1s7580i/comment/od829gq/?context=3)

silverfutes

Hey, don’t look now, but ES futures are above 7k.

zestykite

ES over 7k. Everyone. Clap. NOW

dontslambro

ES futures are up 3.5% since yesterdays open. NQ is 4.27%

lordbell21

Next leg up once ES punches through 7k

WillTheGreat

It means dealers have to buy /ES futures to cover the top of the bread

-IQ200

I feel like a hard slap at ES 7000 is due for reality check.

LynoaFox

Sry I was looking at ES.. so you still have 0.3% of SPY going up left but then what... I am curious. I am mostly in cash now, I don't believe this shit.

NAh94

Well you see, speculators are shorting WTI to go long on /ES. This will of course have no negative implications come delivery time when spot oil prices are still sitting at 130 despite the imaginary contract price they sold at.

Significant_Speed854

/ES price exactly at YTD POC

ModeForJoe

**BREAKING NEWS:** The war in the Middle E-mini took a dramatic turn, with *Bearistan* taking brutal strikes across its industry, resulting in 5 out of the 7 *Magnificent Leaders* bankrupted or wounded in the attack. Bullrabia's successes, however, merely recover some lost ground in recent days. Bearistan Premier Mikhail Burryni still has capital hidden throughout his nation, and has rejected going to cash. He believes the nation of Bullrabia to be wildly overbought and out of position. In furtherance of his asymmetric warfare strats, he continues to hold puts against any hostile nation. Bullrabia Prince Tomáš Lee also remains committed, and will not remove his positions in the Gulf of Portfolio. "These bearorrists... they're not even people" in a statement given to Al Ja Zyn. Asked about the future, he responded "Which ones? ES? Our faith will never waiver from contango."

Due_Marsupial_969

A few hours before NY open I notice ES heading up. Why? Do they know the blockade will be lifted or something? Friggin market took off like everyone has inside info but me. I shorted at 6907 to show who's boss and will be holding for a few days.

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES up almost 100 points from bear trap.

-IQ200

No shot ES breaks 6900 today… right? 🤔

NAh94

VIX is the only safe trade. Everytime it slips below 20 this admin does something nuts and jacks it up again. As for right now, speculators are shorting oil to buy /ES despite no signs the spot barrel price will get anywhere close to what they are selling at. Oil speculators are going to get death star’d.

ParlayTheHard8

ES chart today tells all you need to know

Significant_Speed854

I’m genuinely afraid to press the sell button on /ES or buy on /CL bc of manipulation

Cav829

Think of it this way: the market is made up of new shorts, new longs, old shorts, and old longs. If the market isn't acting the way you think it should, you should think about which of the four is probably not doing their job. In the case of most of the day to day price movement, especially on the ES futures, that's a good indication that new longs are currently the majority of the price action, i.e. ,the buy the dippers. Since the buy the dippers have historically been the ones who act first and ask questions later, everyone else has likely gotten out of the way. On the old longs side, most of the overhead supply is above here. That 616-676ish area just doesn't contain much volume. So they're trapped and unless they want to eat the loss, they'd rather wait for us to return there. On the shorts side, they've created too much of a playbook for the buy the dippers and are likely tired of playing into it. If the market wants to rally and people want to put money into it, let it happen and figure things out once levels are there to trade off of. The tl;dr of everyone waiting to see if the TACO happens to not feed the buy the dippers.

Neat-Concentrate-239

if trendlines hit ES at current volume we could gamma delta hedge into epsilon alpha. trade accordingly

Swiftnice

You can buy options on ES futures

Honest-Capital-4472

$ES and Stocks: While the market and its listings/stocks have been sideways since September/October… …Forward earnings have increased - so it kind of reads as good value (cheaper stocks) so rather than a dynamic pullback because of value or multiples - it was largely technical and events driven. Value corrected by time and also helped by price Increase in M2 supply or lower interest rates (in August perhaps) could add further value if it likes converting to equity investments or buybacks

Honest-Capital-4472

$ES and Stocks: While the market and its listings/stocks have been sideways since September/October… …Forward earnings have increased - so it kind of reads as good value (cheaper stocks) so rather than a dynamic pullback because of value or multiples - it was largely technical and events driven. Value corrected by time and also helped by price Increase in M2 supply or lower interest rates (in August perhaps) could add further value if it likes converting to equity investments or buybacks

ngr_fqt

market mechanics. we are in a positive gamma region. hard to break down unless shit hits the fan. ask ai for more explanation. and theres big liquidity level around ES 6800 going back to oct last yr.

shmito17

If ES stays above the 55 EMA. calls.

Independent_Ad1086

what does this mean? ES went from -1.2% to -0.7% in the span of 8 hours and it climbs more aggressively, no reason to think it won't be green no?

Inifity

they are talking about NQ and ES futures, not oil

prana_fish

I'm long ES futures right now so yes it absolutely matters.

Secure_Dog3810

ES futes already recovered by 50 points lmfao

fuzzywuzzy123

ES futures now at -1.28%

Significant_Speed854

Nearly 10% is good. Much more sensible than ES down 1%.

ramdomvariableX

With all the supposed panic, /ES is not even down by 100. It'll be a green day tomorrow.

SPY_0DTE

why is ES going up

BooBrew32

Lord, give me the optimism of VIX futures right now. Oil is back over $100, ES\_F is down 1%, and bonds are starting to get yippy again.

Tocharian

ES opens 83 pts down.

Dylhole09

I’ve never even seen the “Weekend DOW” by IG International, but after entering an extremely stupid and I’ll-advised put position on ES futures, I have to ask - anyone who has looked at these in the past before real futes open at 6pm, how accurate are they?

Consistent_Panda5891

Your mistake was buying QQQ. I assume you can only trade it within market hours. You should have bought ES futures, at least you could sell before Nikkei opened so you had a chance to exit before -3% index

Kwkatnip

So chart says its bull run now, after MES/ES broke above 6675. I believe the uncertainty is priced in. Look at the day after Israel broke the ceasefire. We should have gone straight down, but we’re near all time highs. I mean 🌮 attended a freaking UFC event yesterday night after negotiations failed.

kirmizikopek

/ES will first go up about 40–60 points as shorts take profits at the open, then fall 150+ points from there. Don’t short immediately at the open if you don’t want to get stopped out.

FG-Oracle

The divergence also looks bad for ES, lower highs on RSI and Volume but higher highs on the chart. I think next week we drop

Content_Inspector778

/ES broke out of a month long bull flag and rallied 300 points rally last week.

ModeForJoe

Deal is D-E-A-D... for now. Asia will freak out, so sunday evening, a bearish spread on ES might print. 8PM EST is 9AM Tokyo. Asian markets will be VERY upset about losing their dino juice.

shmito17

Ideally, from a technical point of view - need to stay above the 55EMA (ES 6800). Stay long till then.

charlesleestewart

Stay delta neutral do not be directional. Exploit the fact that volatility will be coming back soon. I have a long strangle on /ES for that purpose.

slamtt

Trump talking shit on twitter ES: "Best we can do is -5".

slamtt

Ceasefire - +250 ES TRUMP PREPARING MILITARY IF IRAN FAILS TO COMPLY IN TALKS - NYP enjoy your -20ES

grantern2

Thinking about longing an /ES futures contract tonight before I go to sleep. Stonks only go up, right? Why would we sell off tonight? Bulls are in control

JourneymanInvestor

I have a feeling /ES is gonna run all the way back to the 7000+ highs, grab all that hype liquidity and then waterfall downward

SighRamp

until /ES fails the 200SMA if you short, it better be quick.

FG-Oracle

Bought ES at 808 sold for 2k gain, would be up like 30 grand now

MilesDelta

UPRO $432 YOLO, avg 99.16, stop at 105: poor man's 3x SPY trade **Position** * 4 shares UPRO @ 99.16 avg * 68.93% of port (do not ask about the other 31%) * Open P&L: +$35.57 / +8.97% * Stop: $105. Hard. No moving it, no "just let it breathe bro" **The trade** I'm long 3x leveraged SPY into a tape where every large cap with three letters and a GPU is signing nine-figure capex deals before lunch. Meta just committed another $21B to CoreWeave this morning. Amazon is stocking Lilly's weight-loss pill in kiosks like it's Red Bull. The machines are buying, the boomers are buying, and the only thing the Fed is doing is watching. If you believe the AI capex cycle has another quarter in it, the cleanest way to express that without picking which hyperscaler ate the most glue is long index. And if you want 3x the pain with 3x the upside, that's UPRO. **Why UPRO and not SPY or futures** * SPY: boring, I'm not a pension fund * ES: I don't have the margin and I like sleeping * SPXL: same thing, Direxion just has worse swag * UPRO: 3x daily reset, tight spreads, and the decay only kills you if you buy chop. I did not buy chop. I bought the breakout. **The stop** 105 is \~3% below spot. On 3x that means SPX needs to drop \~1% through my line to clip me. Below 105 the chart loses the short-term structure I bought on and I'd rather eat a $15 loss than sit here arguing with the tape for two weeks. If we hit 105, I'm out. No averaging down. No "maybe just half." Out. **Risks** * AI capex trade finally gets the cold shower. Meta's $21B got a lukewarm reception this morning and if the next hyperscaler print misses on margins, the whole complex rolls * Hot CPI or labor print drags yields back above 4.5% and the multiple expansion thesis dies in a ditch * Leverage decay if we chop sideways for a week. UPRO bleeds in range-bound tape * I have four shares. Four. If I'm right, I buy a nice dinner. If I'm wrong, I buy a less nice dinner **Positioning** $432 notional, \~$1,300 equivalent SPY exposure at 3x. Stop at 105 = \~$12 max loss from here, \~$15 from avg. R:R at this point is basically free roll because I'm already sitting on +$35. https://preview.redd.it/u14h6df4o6ug1.png?width=924&format=png&auto=webp&s=9cfa923a73416a167d87c44c1fb858c8616374b5 Not financial advice. I'm a guy with four shares of a leveraged ETF. Take trading cues from me at your own regardation.

SighRamp

don't short as long as /ES is above 200DMA boys

SighRamp

don't short long if /ES stays over the 200SMA you know better boys

slamtt

/CL +6.66% ES no fuks given bers begging for WW3 cooked

Unique_username93_

You guys do you think we’ll get ES minis at 6600 again soon

StrifeRaZoR

Guess I'll throw some bullshit chart astrology in here for those that practice the dark arts. Going by a pretty damn accurate and reliable volume action at certain prices on the SPY and ES1 futures (the historical reasoning is that both SPY and ES1 always return to the price/strike with the highest overall trading volume...until it doesn't...and then all hell breaks loose) something weird just happened. ES1 price with highest volume: 6850 (with 6872 really close). SPY price with highest volume: 683 (with 685 really close). ES1 just pretty much tested that price after-hours around 7:30p EST. SPY, however, has yet to re-test the volume heavy price of 683. What does this mean? Fuck if I know man, I'm just pointing this shit out. (PS, probably means SPY will flush 683-ish before doing something crazy/going flat, and that could be after-hours knowing the current kangaroo market)

DeezCodeNutz

Hurry up and open Gyna. Maybe you can fuck some sense into the ES / SPY's

DeezCodeNutz

ES stuck in the land between realities (MA's).

DeezCodeNutz

SPY / ES eerily quiet tonight.... 👻

DeezCodeNutz

Almost as good as the 6800 contracts of May-8 6950 ES calls traded a few hours before 🥭 TACO.

Nanas_700k

Nice wedge on ES 👀

fairlyaveragetrader

It doesn't necessarily mean we're going to continue higher but it does mean that you have a confirmed break out and the low is very likely in. ES was basing just under the hourly flip the past couple days looking for a reason. Today, massive rally, things are up Add on pullbacks and scary news

shmito17

ES needs to stay above the 50EMA at 6799. Otherwise, down we go.

nnnthrow

Opened positions just now. Calls USO. Short /ES. The opposite of buying the dip. Will it work? Stay tuned

neutralpoliticsbot

**Micro Russell** futures **/M2K** is the dopamine fix you need. **No PDT rules:** trade all day and night with no limits. **No Theta decay:** unlike options, you can hold and roll futures contracts forever at virtually no cost to you. **Tax benefits:** Futures (Section 1256): 60% long-term / 40% short-term, Options are 100% short term gain. **No IV risk:** VIX volatility can't fuck you. You always get full Realized Volatility. **Bid–ask spreads:** An options trader paying $0.20 in spread needs a ~20%+ option move just to break even. **Small margin requirement:** on /ES (E-Minis) you need $26,000 margin just to open a contract. On Micro Russell 2000 (/M2K) margin is only $1,100 per contract and still provides a nice 10.7x leverage. Futures > options.

w33dw1zard420

Literally buy 1 ES instead and use the other 250k for hookers and blow. What are you even doing?

shadowhand00

The MM provides liquidity. They are not incentivized on wanting to win a trade based off direction; they sell the call and then automatically hedge their delta by buying the underlying. (I believe they're usually buying ES futures in this case). They profit from the bid-ask spread plus gamma scalping as they rebalance. You have to consider MMs are doing thousands of these transactions at any given point so even if they're losing on this particular trade, they're profiting across a huge amount of transactions.

Tradewell3845

Sweet, on the most bullish night in trading ES (SPX futures) is up 160 and hitting new highs. This may make you feel a little better. On a Friday about 6 months ago I thought it was going to be a bearish weekend, serious stuff with China maybe ? Can’t remember but I bought OztM QQQ puts 200 contracts at .07. It went exactly 10 the opposite way and my $1400 vaporized, poof- like this play. The sickest and most cruel part is yet to come are you ready for it??? QQQ went 10 points UP and my $1400 would have turned into $200 K. Sorry man regroup …

Full_Cash6140

You're not wrong but Ive been trading futures less due to the fees and this time I only wanted a small amount of risk on. My account is too small right now to buy single leg calls on ES without risking way too much capital. And I didn't want spreads because I knew it could fly. So I did the next best thing.

Tradewell3845

I’m in some ES puts right now

bjxxjj

yeah 6645 feels like the line in the sand rn, if ES can’t hold there I don’t see VIX hanging under 25 for long. ngl the high put/call still makes me cautious even with the higher-lows, feels like one bad macro headline and this bounce gets slapped.

PremiumProprietor

Yeah, I have been a little. There is no way ES is holding a 150 point pop all day. Iran won't stand for that, LOL

w33dw1zard420

I have a banbet already but ES back to +0.5% by 9:30 AM or ban

WillTheGreat

Some pretty big resistance at 6813-6820 on the /ES. Think it'll have some room to run, I'd probably get some puts around that level. Lots of chasing on positive news that's mostly temporary, and contingent on the Homo Strait opening...which neither side has shown any good faith.

1bizzyone

Futes /ES Spy up a mere 137

DefiantDelta

literally hit 6750.00 on ES are you serious

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES broke out of downtrend channel and running.

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES technical are so bullish

Significant_Speed854

Keep a look out for a very #large #candle on CL or ES... that will be the insider trading. Then trade that.