52 Week High
52 Week Low
7 Days Mentions
3 more trading days for this month....check out the monthly candles on NQ/ES That doesnt exactly look like a quick fix situation 3 days a lot can happen though, it could look a lot better monday as unlikely as it currently seems
I definitely learned a very expensive lesson. I basically payed for very expensive classes in experience moving around in the market. I will not make the same mistake again. Can't say it doesn't hurt to see it bleed out that way but I'm thankful for the lesson. Pain is sometimes the best teacher they say. I've been reading charts better. RSI and moving averages better. Trading alongside TLT, VIX, VIXM, RUT, DJI, ES!1, US10Y, US02Y. Being more patient stepping in to stocks instead of letting fomo take over. Looking at balance sheets and income statements. Making sure the company makes sense. Operating margin, debt, return on assets, equities, growth year to year, volume, sector overall performance. Is the company something essential to the consumer. Is the company operating and selling products or service with a good return and reducing debt. Insider trading. What about the peers in it's sub sector? Are they better? They they have better risk to reeardy? I'm looking at everything closely and weeding out the zombies and laggards. The bull traps. I definitely have matured a bit more in the market with the pain. Since early November, I've come at the market different. Right now I'm more industrial and energy sector heavy in my 2nd portfolio. I appreciate the reply. Hopefully Jerome Powell comes out with some decent news today.
I sell NQ (Nasdaq), ES (s&p), RTY (russel2k) options. Way more cost efficient then SPY or QQQ. I don’t only sell put spreads, I sell a lot of call spreads and iron condors and skewed iron condors. Sometimes I sell naked calls but that’s only in some special times when im way too long cuz of a crash like this month. But naked stuff is very expensive to sell so stick to risk defined positions
If we close below 4260 on the ES contract this week, then the 4000 gap fill that ended up never happening back in April last year is likely and probably happens in a manner of a couple weeks at the most. It would actually line up with some things.
It's SPY micro futures. Pretty much just like SPY options but without the effects of theta and IV. Also has tax advantages. And they have options too. There's full /ES but you need a big account because those are some high notational and it's $50/tick move.
He probably sold a put and the underlying dumped enough to create a negative balance in his account. Brokerages will issue a margin call at that point, and the trader has to liquidate enough holdings to cover it. When you sell options you need to take in account buying power expansion and whatnot. When my portfolio gets a little too bullish I'll usually carry a protective hedge in SPY or ES for this kind of thing. It allows for the market to dump without me having to liquidate positions if I'm a bit overextended on my buying power. Just know that when the S&P/Nasdaq/Russell correct 8 to 10%, there's a whole bunch of people having a very bad day.
People here want to believe all technical analysis is voodoo but it isn't. ~4250 /ES was a clear low volume area, meaning all trade since mid-October has had heavy volume above that area and is seen as "true value" for the auction that has taken place since then. That makes the low volume node a great place to initiate longs or cover shorts.
2009 Q2 just made prop trader w my own account from 2d year analyst. Right out of the gate I nailed it with a bunch of OTC long leveraged 1:50 NFLX real rate swaps(CFDs) after hours earnings play wich was quite profitable. Emboldened by this,later that week.. I bought a block of 100 ES_F long contracts on an Q2 earning play along with puts to hedge it out to comply with risk management. As you may imagine I got punished hard by the market that day,and had to give back almost half of my previous gains. When time came for my year end Bonus you better believe this was by no means forgotten.
I'll copy and paste a comment I made last Friday: "Nah. You look at the end of this week there was heavy sell pressure on stocks and decent buy volume on treasuries. If people were just exiting stocks because of increasing rates, going into treasuries makes no sense. The last day or two was more garden variety flight to safety which won't last. Vix is jumping up towards 30. I'd expect another week of selling action at most and /ES to bottom out around 4250. In general I think the pace of rate hikes and balance sheet runoff is going to weigh on stocks and the year will mostly be digesting gains from 2021. I would find a bear market to be extremely surprising though." Today's rally was all price action related around the low volume node near 4250.
So buy SPY and combine with ES futures to reach desired leverage. It’s not difficult for retail to implement and much more fine tuneable with far more liquidity. The benefit also of not having the risks of all the weird small print items you get with leveraged ETFs that no one ever mentions (counter party risk, bag of spanner’s collateral they post, what is a “re-strike event”, etc).
probably a bit lower as tech stole some business from brick and mortar companies, plus the entire downtowns in ALL major cities turned to ghost towns, not to mention giant empty malls and other commercial real estate. someone is going to pay for it and that someone is part of ES
Yes. If you approach trading from the mindset that you want make $xxx each day, you’re going to lose money. You’ll try to force trades to meet your goals and make bad decisions. A lot of trading is waiting for your specific setups to play out. For example, I fade extreme tick readings on ES as my primary setup. Most days, that doesn’t happen and I don’t take any trades at all. There are other setups I look for, but the point is you can’t force it. You have to wait for the right situation that presents a good risk to reward ratio. If day trading is something you really want to pursue, it’s going to take a lot of time to learn and you’re going to have to go slow to start. Here’s a good beginners’ guide: https://youtu.be/15yvLrGmWNQ
Come listen to the enthralling tale, of how I lost money being bearish during 2020 crash 2/24: I shorted /ES futures Sunday evening, made roughly $18k in one session, still my single biggest gain to date 2/27: I short /ES again, make $7k. I AM BEAR GOD. Total gains $25k 2/28 - 3/4: Put $40k into SPY puts, get wiped out everyday, theta/vega fucking me both ways. VIX actually went DOWN during this time, from about 50 down to 30. Total losses -$15k 3/9: Once again, Sunday evening, short /ES futures for $12k gain. Total gains $3k 3/10: Hold my futures position while the market proceeds to erase the entire 3/9 drop. Total losses -$15k 3/12-3/20: During the red days, I enter short positions somewhere near the top 1/3 of the drop, so decent entry points. Too bad, there's constant face-ripping green candles that retrace these drops. Total losses -$40k
I for one think shorting American Companies Is one of the most patriotic and even honorable Things to do. Use /ES if you have a big account or /MES if you have a small account. It's easy to over leverage , but with tight stops I have gotten some that have gone crazy. But then yes the occasional losing streak.
Watch the ES 50-week average at 4340, which is only 1% away. Once we lose that, there is a [volume shelf that coincides with 4153.50](https://imgur.com/CSRZoxo), which is a key Fib retrace from the March 2020 dump and only 5% down from current levels If we get there, [VIX will be around 31](https://imgur.com/hhr3UIF), which makes sense for a capitulation point/battle if you like crayons. The VIX is based on SPX options more than 23 days but less than 37 days away, and FOMC is 23 days away for the Feb 18th expiration. Coincidence? TL;DR: Watch 4340 and 4153.50 (if needed) for ES, and 31 on VIX before you buy the dip to make sure you're not catching a falling knife.
dude, options vary greatly based off greeks and IV. so dont compare the two. futures will make you money based off ticks and points, there are no greeks. every future contract like NQ and ES or RTY YM etc, have different point and tick values. its not as complicated as you're making it
Based on the fact that futures shit blood already (NQ -3%, ES -2% Down -2%), I think we're gonna have a bad time. Unless everyone changes their mind before open. That happens too. Just not sure what would cause that kind of joyful buying, or by who and with what money. Crypto crashing all weekend isn't helping the vibe.
Not disagreeing about leverage being dangerous unless timed very well, but shorting /VX and/or buying /ES on a reversal for a quick scalp is the way to go here. If you want to limit further downside risk and hedge these positions, buy 20% OTM VIX calls as insurance.
And I made 50% on my account in December trading futures. I’ve been shorting ES all week, but you keep on believing it’s impossible to time the market and TA is fake or whatever you believe. I really don’t care. You do what’s right for you. P.S. OP posted a meme. I don’t see anywhere where he’s asking for advice
If you realize how VIX works, you would understand that usually VIX plays out, then affects /ES & SPX with uptrends, we are heading up next week, then after FOMC rally, we are doomed! I got calls next weekend, then will play daily/weekly puts until we bottom in Feb then reverse in March! 🚀🚀🚀
Nah. You look at the end of this week there was heavy sell pressure on stocks and decent buy volume on treasuries. If people were just exiting stocks because of increasing rates, going into treasuries makes no sense. The last day or two was more garden variety flight to safety which won't last. Vix is jumping up towards 30. I'd expect another week of selling action at most and /ES to bottom out around 4250.