Not only is it obviously fake from his post history / open interest+volume data / desktop RH screenshot, but also no one with half a million to gamble is stupid enough to trade SPY weeklies instead of SPX options or ES with 60-40 tax treatment.
[Here you go](https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights/investing/can-the-fed-rein-in-inflation-without-causing-a-recession?pid=YV9tb3JhbjNAeWFob28uY2E=&programName=20220623-NAM-ES-INV-Ideas%20&%20Insights&utm_source=email-pb&utm_medium=Other-EN-Investing&utm_campaign=20220623iipublic&utm_content=featured&mkt_tok=MzkyLUhLQy04NzYAAAGFMECo1Ea8IoxxIUHib-_MpbuNkBfo9pJCay-Eeqdjfb4pyE4M_g9qSsEuPDCpYWwgq8Z8Z9Hnuh8GTRP68sxDNe8ttuugAt4HpMLspcbffVqE2A)
You can play both sides using ES futures. I use ESU2 (sep) on the sell side and ESZ2 (December) on the buy side. I try to maintain a difference of no more than one contract between the sides. As of now, I have 4 contracts on the sell side and 3 on the buy side. It was 3 on each side until the last hour and added a sell side contract by selling ESU2 at 3800.
I like ES for simplicity. No need to know about vega, theta, gamma, delta. It just comes down to does price moves up or down. It’s okay if it moves sideways. Also trading 23 hours a day gives you more opportunities. Good set ups early night and early morning to take advantage of. If you make a profit tax treatment for futures significantly better than options.
Trading futures its risky. I would not recommend trading mini ES as one contract of mini ES worth about 400k . Instead trade micro ES each contract worth 20k. Do you have 20k? If you answer no that’s okay you might need between 1k -2k depending on your broker. Yes , you are leverage 10x-20x . That’s risky part. Each tick equals .25 points , each tick equals $1.25 for contract that means a ten point moves equals $50 . The benefits are you can trade as much as you want as all transactions are cash settle meaning no limits on trades . Of course you pay commission per contract traded. In addition futures trade 23 hours a day.
ES spreads are good and bad. You can force a good limit buy when things are stagnant but when things are moving fast one way or another you can get left in the dust or an unfilled order. I also found when things to against you the spreads do too. Meaning with their wide gap you arent getting a favorable fill youll always take the worst fill
ES is about to hit 3800. Tank Seng just blasted off. Nikkei is up and hard like Shrek’s dong. I can imagine how the Europoors’ going to react. They’ve already sold off their pantaloons so they literally have nothing else to sell off tomorrow. Market is literally countering each red dildos with larger green dongs. Yeah…I am feeling extremely fucked about having put positions.
Why don’t you trade micro ES? You can get into a position overnight put a stop loss in case it doesn’t work out limit damage but might have significant win if it does play your way. Also unlike options you don’t have to deal with decay, volatility .
While setting aside 30% isn't a bad place to start, anyone doing this should be aware that they should probably make estimated tax payments on a quarterly basis (form 1040-ES). The IRS likes getting their money early, and if you're not paying early enough you [may be subject to a penalty](https://www.irs.gov/payments/pay-as-you-go-so-you-wont-owe-a-guide-to-withholding-estimated-taxes-and-ways-to-avoid-the-estimated-tax-penalty). With a "normal" job, your taxes are deducted each paycheck and sent off to the feds and state, but as a business owner you need to handle this yourself. (Note that "quarterly" doesn't line up exactly with calendar quarters, with due dates every January, April, June, and September.) How you pay your taxes will largely depend on how you structure your LLC--are you going to set up shop as an S/C corp, partner with someone, or just run it yourself? [Here's a link with some basic explanations](https://www.freshbooks.com/hub/taxes/tax-classifications-llc). If you're going to go the LLC route, it's **best to have a chat with a CPA** (accountant) before you start so you can fully understand what the fed/state governments expect and avoid lots of trouble. Then pay a CPA to do your taxes each year, unless you really want to nerd out and do things yourself. However the IRS loves to audit small business owners that do their own taxes since they almost *always* screw something up. Source: I've been an LLC owner for over 13 years.
Then that would be my suggestion for you. Keep track of your short/long gains and losses and go through the fed and your state estimated tax forms and keep track of what you will owe. Fed has a [Tax Withholding Estimator](https://www.irs.gov/individuals/tax-withholding-estimator) you can use. Maybe your state will have something similar, but mine does not. [IRS 1040-ES](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040es.pdf) What I found useful is I want to do this, but I didn't want to figure out the forms over and over, so I went through the IRS 1040-ES and made a google sheet out of it that I can plug in the things it needs and it takes care of calculating the different steps to get the estimate. I also did this for my state. Dunno what your state is so I cannot lookup the estimated tax form for it off hand.
Hmmmm oil up, DXY up, but also futes up?! Something had to flip lower. I like the nice green candle we’ve painted on my long term resistance line on /ES, if we close green here we can make it support. F u DXY, do me a solid and go back to $100 today plz.
I usually take a Futures position on NQ or ES at the end of the day and close it the following morning. Although tonight I feel its a little tricky so I'm avoiding it. Yesterday's short NQ and covering early this morning was glorious.
I use 3 for futures but only one for options is doable. It’s more about trading structure in the underlying at key turning points. Actually, unless you have a solid understanding of market structure, I’d skip trading options until you’re able to be consistently profitable on SPY and /ES.
Update On Monday, #ES_F broke out of the 3 day base between 3630-3705ish. Overnight, ES dipped to backtest the breakout at 3705 and todays candle is key Plan today: Supports = 3705 and bulls need >3725 to trigger upside to 3755, 3800. 3705 fails, we see 3680-85, gate to 3625, 3500
Honest question why do tards buy puts/calls instead of just trading ES/NQ futures? IV always fucks you with options and time decay is even worse. Yes you can theoretically have unlimited losses on futures but thats what a stop loss is for - you could always set your stop loss to the amount you would have wagered on the put/call option.
Yea and the closer to open the closer to accurate it gets as SPY (not ES/) consolidates. That’s why you’ll hear people say ‘don’t bother watching Futes until 8am’. Or ‘plus or minus 0.50% doesn’t mean shut’. Regardless, -1.78% is a big deal. Not impossible to reverse but gonna need some catalysts.
someone should show him the chart of the dozens of 20 year negative real return periods in the last 100 years. hey, we can’t help everybody. can’t fix stupid. i hope he buys the dip, i’m just waiting to unload zeeee puts on his stocks. target 4400 ES in six plus weeks.
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Update Yesterday, #ES_F broke out a 3 day base. 1st target was 3755 & 6 points off. Now with volume back, bulls need to defend it & stop a trap Plan: Supports=3725, 3705-3695 (key). As long as they hold, 3755, 3795, 3855 in play. 3705 fails, its back to chop (3680, 3625-35, breakdown)
A non comprehensive list: Near term expirations: Index options (cash settled): SPX: Daily NDX: Monday Wednesday Friday RUT: MWF DJX: Weekly Fridays, Monthly Equity Exchange Traded Funds Options (shares settled) SPY: MWF QQQ: MWF IWM: MWF DIA: Weekly Fridays Futures index options (settleent to the futures contract) ES MWF NQ MWF RTY MWF YM Weekly Fridays https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/options-calendar-equity-index.html
I find ES to have better overall liquidity vs SPX. It also has less gaps due to it being traded 23/5 although that's negligible now since SPX options have overnight sessions. It also has much better margin treatment unless you have portfolio margin.
1 day's candle does not a rally make. You gotta give it time. Dont buy weeklies. Give them at least 30 days. You'll get the rally. Look at this weekly RSI on both NQ and ES, its ready to pop to the upside. However, once it does, back to puts. Know when to take profits and when to start getting puts. I trade strictly off technicals and been looking at the weekly as a main guide. I also day trade intraday and use lower time frames.