ES

socal_gunslinger

I day trade $ES/$MES. I have followed you for a year and I feel out of my depth and overwhelmed by what you do and how you do it to the point that I even began to start a trial week and decided against it based upon the fact that I felt I would be starting from way behind in a week would not be sufficient to even learn. Where can a person at an insufficient Vol GEX knowledge level or complete lack thereof like me begin to learn about and grow to where I can take advantage of and incorporate what you're doing and what your service offers?

RodionRaskolnikov866

Yes, I read that institutions are rotating into defensive stocks i.e consumer staples and utilities. Given that ES/NQ are tech-heavy, its obvious they will take a hit. But its been nearly half of a year, and most big-caps reported positive earnings (Unless they were fabricated aswell) Why would they give us fake numbers tho?

RodionRaskolnikov866

Weird week, weird times in the markets. NFP - positive Unemployment Rate - positive CPI - positive Equities - mixed. RTY/DOW - positive YTD ES/NQ - negative YTD 5months of sideways action, tightening of range. Is this longterm profit taking? Is this extreme hedging? Is this options gamma range?

softboiledjadepotato

/ES closing at +.03% We are so back!!!!

MarginCalledManager

red candles have twice the volume of green candles on ES… but okay dude

ExplanationNormal339

[$ES](https://aimytrade.io/ticker/ES?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=comment&utm_campaign=smallstreetbets&utm_term=ES&utm_content=variant_1771007991884_aruias) consolidating before the next move, but watch if it breaks below support here.

MarginCalledManager

ES and SPY melting on lowest volume candles of the day... volume is gonna come in and completely obliterate this

nextdoorelephant

Also worth noting it gets marked to /ES after hours

Parunreborn

Damn every dip getting bought on ES, looks like we’re flying on CPI

MarginCalledManager

Do you even ES futures?

MarginCalledManager

SPY ES futures 40 minutes of pump since touch of the 100 day SMA

MarginCalledManager

/ES 20 point bounce as SPY hits and bounces off 100 day SMA

Delicious_Put_5857

ES didnt even get to bottom 2 sigma bollinger band. can always bounce but not some kinda oversold where it "has" to bounce. last little dip bottomed just outside 3rd stdev and still no reason that "has" to hold.

CompetitiveIdeal3104

I tried this with ES options (24 hours trading time) and it takes 22-30 debits to open a position for 0.5-1.5 profit. any suggestions? going with 0.2 deltas for 1DTEs same strike for long side too

RodionRaskolnikov866

Sell near 700SPY/700SPX/7000ES has been the play since October.

duboilburner

I tried a lot of indicators and strategies related to them and the edge wasn't consistent enough. I got better just focusing on SPX (and related), watching implied volatility/VIX (almost the same thing... almost), watching some correlated assets at the same time (Bitcoin and $HYG ETF) plus, the one technical analysis I do like, which is something you mentioned, important levels. Levels where volume was extra high, indicating that appears to be where considerable re-hedging occurs. Volume profile can largely give you those levels. In some conditions, you can get mean reversion back to either the POC or to the most recent high volume node to close the day. Now, to have a volume profile that actually is real, useful info, you can't really use the standard SPX data. It's just an index, it doesn't have shares to trade, thus no volume outside of options. Volume profile on /ES futures, however, does work well. Tradingview does have an SPX display that effectively is /ES data, but price corrected for SPX equivalent values. Find the SPX by "Spreadex" on Tradingview, it's pretty excellent, also gives you the overnight moves in SPX corrected price. The other thing I'm diving deeper into is paying for a service that more accurately reconstructs dealer SPX options positioning. Dealer gamma exposure. Not Naive gamma exposure, the real stuff you actually have to pay for. Naive gamma exposure just makes a broad assumption that dealers are sold calls, making them long, and customers buy puts, making dealers short. So, a Naive GEX graph just basically shows where we transition from net calls to net puts. Whereas the real positioning is far, far different. Customers can do more complex structures, buying options at one strike, selling them at others further OTM. Thus, dealer positions are much more varied. And what dealers have to do to keep their books delta neutral and risk-adjusted varies depending on if we're moving through a price range of where they are net short options or net long options. Last Thursday was a great example. Despite the solid downmove, you could see unusual amounts of long gamma near spot, both above and below where we were trading near the lows. Looking at the positioning in more detail, it became clear there was a hell of a lot of customers selling puts to dealers, making them long gamma. It also is a good sentiment indicator on days like that where a big down move happens, but smart customers have flipped to being net premium sellers instead of buyers, indicating a big reversal is being bet on happening in large quantity. And of course the act of customers selling options to dealers instead of buying is something that causes volatility to contract. Vol is "well supplied." When customers are panicking and are willing to pay more for owning the protection instead of selling it, the opposite happens. Prices of options shoot up, which means implied vols are going up, dealers become net short gamma, and that means if selling picks up, the dealers are selling futures that will accelerate the downmove, moving in concert with customers. But, it does take money to get the data, it takes awhile of studying and learning from ex-MMs how they know dealers have to react as price moves through certain options exposures, sometimes making them the biggest driver of price. I'll draw key levels on my chart daily on the bigger spots dealers may change behavior. Where we may be likely to stall and possibly reverse, or a level where, if breached, price moves can accelerate. Like TA, it doesn't tell you exactly what is going to happen, but it does add some great depth and gives good price targets on when to close out a trade and then wait out to see how things develop at those stall zones and get a feel for where we're likely to go next, let things develop a little before entering the next trade. If we're in predominantly suppressive or supportive charm also plays a big role in behavior, especially as we get closer to the end of the day as deltas compress. What dealers have to do as time passes is an important part of the equation.

Delicious_Put_5857

if were so lucky as to have some kinda dumbass reason for ES to go back up to the 20 MA lord bless you with the ability to turbo short it

MarginCalledManager

/ES is up 14… kinda meaningless though

MarginCalledManager

Sure the /ES lows for the day are in… surely…

MarginCalledManager

/ES futures up 14… seems sustainable…

MarginCalledManager

/ES LOL pumping into 5 pm eastern settlement close over 20 points off the lows

torqued8

Wonder if they'll be excluded from wash sale rules like ES futures

TanukiTrade

Let’s make this concrete. Suppose you’re looking at an “institutional only” or “dealer only” SPY options distribution — or a change in that distribution. Looks powerful, right? Big size. Clean visualization. Feels like inside information. But here’s the problem: 👉 you still don’t know what it means. Because for it to have directional value, you would need context that you simply do not have. For example: • Is that trade buy-to-open or buy-to-close? • How many SPY shares does the institution already own? • What is their average price on the underlying? • What other option structures are already on their book across other expirations? • Are they rolling something? • Are they reducing risk? • Are they adjusting vega? • How much /ES exposure are they running against it? The SAME exact options print could be: bullish, bearish, neutral, or just mechanical inventory management. Without the full portfolio → intent is unknowable. --- Imagine this: If they are long a massive SPY stock position, then buying puts might be protection. If they are short gamma elsewhere, the same trade might flatten risk. If they are closing previous longs, it might actually remove support. If they hedge via futures, the option flow alone becomes almost meaningless. You see a fragment. They operate the entire book. --- This is why most “dealer must buy” / “institutions are trapped” narratives are guesswork. You are trying to reverse engineer a professional portfolio while missing most of the variables. And even the dealer doesn’t pre-decide direction — they react to momentum when price reaches sensitivity zones. --- Where does GEX help? GEX is strongest when used as a **map of where reactions can intensify**. Not who is long. Not who is short. Not what someone must do. 🗺️ GEX is not the trade. It’s the map. Everything else depends on how price behaves when it gets there.

TanukiTrade

Let’s make this concrete. Suppose you’re looking at an “institutional only” or “dealer only” SPY options distribution — or a change in that distribution. Looks powerful, right? Big size. Clean visualization. Feels like inside information. But here’s the problem: 👉 you still don’t know what it means. Because for it to have directional value, you would need context that you simply do not have. For example: • Is that trade buy-to-open or buy-to-close? • How many SPY shares does the institution already own? • What is their average price on the underlying? • What other option structures are already on their book across other expirations? • Are they rolling something? • Are they reducing risk? • Are they adjusting vega? • How much /ES exposure are they running against it? The SAME exact options print could be: bullish, bearish, neutral, or just mechanical inventory management. Without the full portfolio → intent is unknowable. --- Imagine this: If they are long a massive SPY stock position, then buying puts might be protection. If they are short gamma elsewhere, the same trade might flatten risk. If they are closing previous longs, it might actually remove support. If they hedge via futures, the option flow alone becomes almost meaningless. You see a fragment. They operate the entire book. --- This is why most “dealer must buy” / “institutions are trapped” narratives are guesswork. You are trying to reverse engineer a professional portfolio while missing most of the variables. And even the dealer doesn’t pre-decide direction — they react to momentum when price reaches sensitivity zones. --- Where does GEX help? GEX is strongest when used as a **map of where reactions can intensify**. Not who is long. Not who is short. Not what someone must do. 🗺️ GEX is not the trade. It’s the map. Everything else depends on how price behaves when it gets there.

MarginCalledManager

Repeat of last night, low volume chump pump making /ES puts easy money

silverfutes

ES futures bout to get backhanded at 6980. Red dawn.

TanukiTrade

You can try TanukiTrade GEX LIVE with a 7 day FREE Trial. SPX, /ES, /NQ and 200+ US symbols supported. Screenshot: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hmq_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43def217-2612-46b1-ac27-11405fe38ac7_1732x1495.png We also have a GEX profile indicator for Tradingview with 5x daily seamless updates.

aybud777

fUTURes hitting a nice 'V' for VENGENACE -0.32% TO POSITIVE INC HOLDING THESE ES MICRO CONTRACTS TILL OPEN LETS BOUNCE !

Affectionate_Tart971

Canadian Junior Mining Companies to look for in March 2026 MAXX (Hydrogen) ES Gold (Gold and Silver)

Delicious_Put_5857

ES 20 DMA bounce

Domitus_Aurelian

/ES cracked 7k.

MarginCalledManager

/ES puts in afterhours because of fake pumps is so amazing

MarginCalledManager

love being able to buy /ES puts during overnight trading on a fake pump

Outrageous-Lab2721

Sellers are pathetically weak. Best they can do is a -0.15% down day after countless rejections of ATH/7K on both ES and SPX. Now futures open is immediately back up +0.20%.

abled

!banbet ES +1% 24h

UnivalveX

ES rejected 7000 more than a dozen times now. just dump already bitch

John-AtlasGames

Peter Navarro: "The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like ... Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market." Jobs report is going to be horrific. Position yourself accordingly. (As for me, I'm staying short /NQ and /ES for now, and long shiny rocks.)

slamtt

Gay bears think every 10pt ES down candle is a start of a fucking crash Absolute regards lmaooo 🤌🤌

BarbellPadawan

/ES is flat

Ambitious-Piano9794

This is great news. Its a good sign when a company is taking there time. Under promising and over delivering. Lets go ES gold

johnlovesbigwomen

DID YOU SEE SELLING OCCURING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY? THOSE WERE NOT RETAIL TRADERS TAKING THE MARKET DOWN, THOSE INSTITUTIONAL TRADERS. THE MSRKET ALWAYS BOUNCES ON A FRIDAY AFTER BEING DOWN 2% OR MORE EARLIER IN THE TRADING WEEK, IT IS CALL SHORT COVERING, PORTFOLIO REALLOCATION, AND SHORT SQUEEZE. THE 2% UPSIDE MOVE IN QQQ WAS A LOW RISK OPPORTUNITY TO BUY LONG PUTS OR SELL CALLS AND A HIGH RISK OPPORTUNITY TO BUY LONG CALLS AND SELL PUTS. YOU ARE TOADT ON MONDAY. BECAUSE COME SUNDAY EVENING, FEBRUARY 8, 2026. PROFESSIONAL QUANTIVE AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS ARE GOING TO DUMPING ESH26 CONTRACTS THEY BOUGHT ON FRIDAY. COULD THE MARKET GO UP? ABSOLUTELY. BUT IS WAS TOO RISKY TO BUY CALLS EXPIRING EVEN ON FEBRUARY 13, 2026 BASED ON DAILY CHART IN ES FUTURES https://preview.redd.it/ta85sr9aq3ig1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb86f91740c64e1e8f35bbacfa7a38cd35d51b93

OurNewestMember

Oh right. The image in the comments. You did long underlying and a long ITM strangle with European style options? I don't know how else you would be long gamma/Vega and long theta. Long vol can explain cvar/ES of zero. So that's my answer. (You spent implied interest on long vol)

FSO88

It would explain the haircut (explained) being zero along with VaR and ES. The Vega as well. 90% of the Vega is related to the index position. The risk positions were maybe 3-4K vols. At 2K lots the req on the account would have gone to $0.

FSO88

Single index ticker. The req is related to (unrelated) risk-positions in other tickers. Even with the risk in the other positions the book shows $0 VaR and $0 ES (exp shortfall).

Content_Inspector778

140+ point bear trap on /ES

lndnmdn

ES below SPX rn

DanqueLeChay

ES failing 6810

CptFeelsBad

I gots a sealed ES booster box, and I’ll buy you all the tentacle tips your ass wants when I sell someday

bornofsupernovae

/ES

Available-Range-5341

yeah I bought DLR at $165 and ES at $68 today thinking boomer dividend stocks won't drop more, boy what I stupid.

CUbuffGuy

ES offline. we can get unhedged moves for an hr yay

FSO88

No complaint, Karen. TY. IBKR sows zero ES and VaR on the position and it adds buying power. I am thinking about volunteering my time to teach a weekend phonics class.

iannoyyou101

FTSE and CAC40 futes inverse ES after Paris open. This is literally EU banks being forced to liquidate their US equities and buy EU indices because of risk management.

GammaReaper_

It's very a conservative, 10‑day, vega‑sensitive margin regime (TIMS + VV overlay) that doesn’t grant full portfolio offsets. As a result your long vega position - despite modest VaR/ES - is chewing up credit instead of freeing it.

spyputs1

The ES chart matches 🌽chart wild shit

ConfederacyOfDunces_

This nice smooth liquidation. Just like in ES. These are leveraged sell orders being executed by institutions for those offsides. Pretty sure there is absolutely no bid happening except for some short coverings. We are witnesisng this live in BTC right now

Head_Welcome_4933

On ES they appear to be just repeatedly sledgehammered until they turn red 😂

dub_soda

lmao green candles getting sledgehammered down on ES and NQ

IKnowMeNotYou

Well, maybe you should research where the PDT does not apply. What do you think will happen, if the mass of ES-mini and Forex and commodity upcoming traders go for SanDisk gambles and TSLA instead? And that is just me stating the obvious. The question is rather, what do the people selling financial products and keep people in 'gaming' mode (the robin hood, webull etc fraction) think about it and of course all the other reasons I can not even imagen... When it comes to trading, I even today would simply trade 0dte options on a cash account... and guess what, that is what some people actually do to circumvent the PDT today. Especially since options now settle within the same time frame as stocks do.

claytondpark

ES back to ydays overnight lows???

Kind_Initiative_7567

ES 6 month chart is looking insanely bullish and wanting to rip to 10k by EOY Tom L may be right again lol

DanqueLeChay

Ok so ES will moon overnight and then we drill on open? Such a novel idea

Head_Welcome_4933

ES already at 7012

Scoiatael

Really kicking myself for not trying more aggressively to fill my /ES Call Debit Spreads before I went to sleep. Would have easily been max profit.

AcademicStandard3701

ES usually leaves some Sunday night gap but it already filled it I think this is the week spy cracks $700

Successful-Pass-568

Made up for my losses trading /ES lol….. yesterday was not chill

Content_Inspector778

100+ point bear trap on /ES

hitman133295

Yea ES erased 100pts deficit and now up so much. This market is so bs

dub_soda

lol ES switching to all green candles

UnivalveX

whoever's buying ES calls during these insane premarket dips is making bank

1Mby20201212

!banbet ES +1% 24 hr

triggermeharderdaddy

Pretty bearish in here - long ES it is

Happy_Discussion_536

Yea except NQ opened -1% and now just -.2%. ES opened down much more.

NativePlant870

ES about to be green

Equanimous-Fox

What are you talking about I’m seeing ES roughly flat and gold/silver futures up.

BlackFlames01

You must have a large account to trade gold futures. I trade ES futures and am up +23% YTD. Hard to tell where gold is going. Wishing us both good luck with our trades. 🍀

brannock_

/ES can't make any headway. Probably good time to take profits if long. Eyeing 6910

achay10

Your condescension and snooty superiority complex is absolutely insufferable. [](https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=038229efecd48614&sxsrf=ANbL-n7wrmnapUcaUC62L5arO4oF5C3G3A:1769781984494&q=condescension&si=AL3DRZGvge7Ly45ljJSlYzJexmOMP_cfZXCs2ZXyViCQVlyiYelBAJM9x-1ARaLAgAXnK9S2be5btJaL9-7HJZPfXVwDvWtw3arSrvso6NmW9j_Fm1xAFLw3G_REaeXmL2xw6ES_TVzVT3h5BJIsT9SAFguyEljk-g%3D%3D&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj0y4_Ut7OSAxVqM1kFHSAYBGgQyNoBKAB6BAgZEAA&ictx=1)

Successful-Pass-568

Bought a few /ES contracts @6900

Stock_Succotash_1560

/ES blasting over 6982

iShitBloodandCumShit

Someone short ES so we can break this 45

Stock_Succotash_1560

This is your chance to buy spy calls /ES 6940

Stock_Succotash_1560

/ES 6900 I just bought some spy calls 0day hoping for a bounce

ClevelandSteamer81

Have some ES calls from 6996. Trimmed half at 7014. Good night after the big drop.

dub_soda

ES is painfully slow overnight. Those of us with the silkiest pajamas trade NQ or metals

spyputs1

All my pajama traders time to stretch your dong and go long on the ES boys!

First-Bad2007

P/L here is for future contracts, not current "spot". And VIX jumping high now has near zero effect on where it would be in a few months. Basically, it's not spot options, it's Futures options, and very special futures, not ES

buppiejc

Not a bear, but I feel the need to mention I don’t like the potential death cross (Ichimoku Base Line 6928.75, Ichimoku Conversion Line 6928.75) on ES’s daily chart. Use caution. Gl.

Content_Inspector778

/ES one way traffic since Sunday open.

MrLiquidity

https://preview.redd.it/mmvczlabuzfg1.jpeg?width=977&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=557ce4659f8f3701bd74e7c338c7fc4f10b19091 3 ES all month longy

spyputs1

Ain’t no way this thing (ES) is just gonna drift past 7030 in the Asian session with no bounces, watching closely

TreadOnmeNot1

Yeah, but their forward guidance is generally simple in nature. They don't use that guidance internally, it's more for the public and to encourage business. Personally, i'm mostly in municipal bonds with a /ZN short to balance DV01 risk. 25% gold overlay, and 25% /ES overlay. We have contracting liquidity conditions in conjunction with ERP at -.66%.

bronzewhale

10 points on ES right now would be sick

pineapplekiwipen

ES 7000 congratulations to all bol 📈🥳🎉

spyputs1

ES long at 6975 support playing out nicely for me, me thinks it melts up overnight and dumps in the morning. Let’s see if it breaks 6985 resistance

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES dipped and trapped bears.

PracticalAnywhere225

That NQ and ES opening candle is disgusting.... We dumpin' tomorrow

Important-Tax1776

Whenever i see US 30, US500, and all that i see a CFD pleb. It is called ES, NQ, YM futures.

Negative_Win_5117

/ES down .30% is deep red?

Party_Reference2540

Anyone have an accurate ES-SPY calculation