Reddit Posts
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
PCE Tomorrow… 1-25-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, and DXY/ US Dollar Daily Market Analysis
PCE Tomorrow… 1-25-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, and DXY/ US Dollar Daily Market Analysis
PCE Tomorrow… 1-25-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, and DXY/ US Dollar Daily Market Analysis
Dear TDA or Schwab peeps - can you help out? - CFTC combos with opts & spot
Retrace Inbound? 1-24-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, and DXY/ US Dollar Daily Market Analysis (Tesla Earnings)
Retrace Inbound? 1-24-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, and DXY/ US Dollar Daily Market Analysis (Tesla Earnings)
Trading SPY + QQQ off /ES and /NQ chart anybody else do this?
$2K to $50K in 90 Days - Options Trading Challenge (Day 2 +$519.03 Net Realized)
$2K to $50K in 90 Days - Options Trading Challenge (Day 1 +$250 Unrealized)
$2K to $50K in 90 Days - Options Trading Challenge (Day 1 +$250 Unrealized)
Buying a naked call or a Futures contract on strong directional days
Need advice about index option and option on future.
Someone close to me made an interesting bet against ES NQ IWM TSLA, the semiconductors, but is long on PSNY, China, oil, cereals, wheat pall
Why not use index future /ES for leverage instead of a margin loan for holding 2x SPY?
A cancer drug just got approved in China and thus far hasn't hit English news yet. SRNEQ
US Broker Recommendation with a market that allows both longs/shorts
Here's a Breakdown of My Recent Strategy - SPX Long Strangle Plays
Different brokers showing different Delta values for the same strike
$DPRO DD - A deeper look into the company
Yesterday was a great day. Strangle paid off beautifully.
Successful Trading Partner : 1 trade per day, Long only, 0 DTE, ATM/1 OTM, 1 leg SPX, NY Session
Where can I find the daily average IV crush on /ES?
Is there a good 3rd party software for options charting?
$DPRO DD - A deeper look into the company
$DPRO DD - A deeper look into the company
$DPRO DD - A deeper look into the company
Could military drone production be a good investment with a looming world war III?
Could military drone production be a good investment with a looming world war III?
Anyone out there working with a delta neutral strategy using futures and options?
"Going the Extra Mile: NIO's Journey Towards a Greener Future"
NIO: Embrace the cycle of rising gas prices and join the future of transportation with cost-effective and eco-friendly electric vehicles.
Swingtrading the S&P500? Question To all people that know/trade the S&P500 and its instruments.
Swingtrading the S&P500? Question To all people that know/trade the S&P500 and its instruments.
Going into next week SPX 4300 remains a key level of gamma exposure worth watching
What level of margin is required when futures options are exercised?
Difference in ES / MES quotes and current bid / ask price
ALBERTSONS / KROGER MERGER OPPORTUNITY
S&P September Stats: headed for doom or potential for a rally?
NIO Earnings Are Coming. Investors Are Nervous.
/ES Technical Analysis for Week of 8-28-23: Potential Squeeze?
SPX 4400 is a key level to watch based on full chain options positioning
Bought a 20 contracts of SPX 4390/4400 CDS but picked AM settled by accident...
Grid Battery Metals Inc. (OTC:EVKRF)(TSX.V:CELL) - Focused on Lithium and Nickel while currently fully funded with $4.5M cash & 6M shares (worth $3.6M) of recent high grade discovery Surge Battery Metals (TSXV:NILI) entering exploration on multiple properties. - Due diligence summary
"SPX options are priced based on ES"...So does this mean I ignore the SPX chart?
ES complex options orders only trade in 25c increments?
VolSignals Weekly SPX Recap PT 2 / 3 → ARE WE DUE FOR A THETAGANGBANG? 👀 / WHY is SPX positioning *so* dangerous? 🦈
VolSignals Weekly SPX Recap PT 2 / 3 → ARE WE DUE FOR A THETAGANGBANG? 👀 / WHY is SPX positioning *so* dangerous? 🦈
🚀 $NIO: Igniting the EV Revolution with Game-Changing Innovations! 🔥🌟
Diamond Hands and some risk management.
SPUS down $60 coming from 9% realized vols? Uh oh... 💥 Recapping our SPX Whales + a 🔮into flows / positioning
SPUS down $60 coming from 9% realized vols? Uh oh... 💥 Recapping our SPX Whales + a 🔮into flows / positioning
Why Treasury bond with the same Maturity Date has such big difference in coupon rate?
CPI Week… 7-10-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
Bears had their day… 7-6-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
Post-FOMC Minutes… whats next? 7-5-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
FOMC Minutes are upon us… 7-3-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
2 week modified straddle. Gamma experience: Ticker /ES
2 week modified straddle. Gamma experience (learn from my loss)
7-3-23: Short Week Index Moves (part 2) - EEs OnlyCrayons
Are the bulls back in control? 6-27-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
Tight ranges and market wide oddities… 6-26-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
Here it is.. The BIG Short Squeeze on the /ES and $SPY.
JPOW day 1, one more day to go… 6-21-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
Buy the dip attempts to continue… 6-20-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily market Analysis
6-19-23 Short Week Index Moves - EEs OnlyCrayons
6-19-23 Short Week Index Moves - EEs OnlyCrayons
SPY Technical Analysis for Tuesday June 20, 2023 - SPY’s H1 Analysis: Market Shift Points to Bearish Bias
Is it time to short Spy yet? 6-16-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Market Analysis
Quad Witching Day is Upon Us… 6-15-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
The Hawkish Pause… 6-14-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
Mentions
I'll believe this pump if ES is over 6850...otherwise I'm sitting out
ES remained flat for the remainder of the 21st century, taking theta gains to entirely new levels
the chart is saying we're taking out SPY 675 and going back to ES 6700 go back to sleep
I buy puts when IV is low otherwise I’m short ES
I bet against it with ES puts back in 2015… did pretty well from memory. Not as well as I did going long ES futures just after Christmas that year… man, stocks were cheap back then.
If you will have withholding in 2026 that will be at least as much as your 2025 tax, then you don't need to make estimated tax payments, even though your 2026 tax will be much higher. See the 1040-ES instructions for details.
Who is on ES puts right now ? LOL
lol? We literally just got another Fed rate cut with higher forecasts, **ES** shouldn't be flushing this hard. This price action is completely disconnected from the macro.
Please just dump ES out of this range dear lord
The new ES futures contracts are already underwater and not ripping 🤣 bols are fucked
33 points on ES is a wonderful day for me
Why is there such a big price divergence between /ES and SPY? Shouldn't SPY be around 690 right now?
Go to your broker's app and look at /ES or /NQ or literally any stock that trades in the overnight session.
You can tell the 🤡 who don’t trade futures. Thinking ES is at 6882 when it’s actually 6827
Robinhood will show you live ES and NQ TradingView will give you delayed by 10 minutes unless you pay extra for live data
/ES futes gaparooni, going down
Protect? Sell everything. If you wanna keep it you can just hold until it recovers, or throw some sell orders in to ES futures as a hedge
This was my first time holding options into the 2 pm decision. I was holding ES calls, they were performing badly, I was down $150, then BOOM, was happy to see them rocket up, had horrific bid/ask spread of like 9 and 28. I put in a limit order for $26 and they were sold. I’ve decided ES is not for me at this time. You can really lose your ass, the spreads are terrible, etc etc.
0-DTE is the final boss of trading. I personally love it but you gonna size really small until you can definitely prove your system works and has positive expectancy. If you insist on 0DTE then start with defined risk spreads on /ES that have at least 1:2 risk to reward such as at the money debit spreads where the long strike in ATM and the short strike is 2-4 strikes above or out of the money
did you diversify at all just ES alone?
MES and ES are more liquid than 0dtes even
I guess I'm going to hold my shorts on all kinds of Crypto/AI stuff while offsetting it with long futes positions on /ES and /NQ. Hypothesis is that either it hedges me against a broad market V, or maybe it lets me profit from sector rotation within the indexes. Switched from short to long /NQ last night after that sharp sell-off when the Asian markets opened; so far the strategy seems to be working, as Oracle and friends are still in the toilet while the futures indexes came up sharply from the overnight lows. Really wonder what's going to happen at the opening bell tho.
Lol, ok gobbledygook. Based on ES liquid distillation fractures and monolith timing gradients, we open red and time shift fractally to slight greenish brown after close. What now, pointdexter?
Back to what? Back to ES 40s just like last few weeks? Lol
>That's all it does Nope. It's the main driver of the trade. It's what provides the actual income, at the cost of tail risk. Very similar to selling naked puts but the debit spread acts like a buffer and can potentially make a profit. The idea is not to make money off the debit spread but off the theta decay from the short put. Generally, you want to sell more than the value of the debit spread. So, if the debit spread costs $10, you sell $20, for a $10 net credit. >ES dropped 3% a day, your diagonal would most likely be underwater as well Yes, but the loss is temporary. Even if price stays flat at 3%, theta eats away the vega, which is what really bloats up the premium. If you haven't already, I encourage you to check out some videos on the 1-1-1 or its other variations.
Well, that took longer than expected, but ES finally did the head fake and took out the low. Crypto falling too.
You can buy ES futures all night
I'm really not trying to argue with you All I am trying to say is, and you said this yourself in your OP, the additional short put is to finance the debit spread That's all it does, and by doing so, it adds tail risk to the reverse PMCC. Adding the short put doesn't make the trade "omnidirectional" Also, if ES dropped 3% a day, your diagonal would most likely be underwater as well Personally, I don't sell naked puts if I am not prepared to be assigned, so I don't hedge, and I agree your stop loss can get whiplashed. I may buy a put when it's cheap, but that's a delta directional play, not a "hedge" for another trade Undefined risk means max loss is unknown when you enter a trade. When you sell a put, max loss is known: strike - premium
It's certainly a spin of a ratio spread and yes it's long delta. >You seem to think this structure gives better return I'm not comparing it to anything, so I'm not sure what you're implying here. >But then, you're worried about the naked leg, and buying an extra put to "hedge" So effectively, you just have 2 put spreads Well, I'm aware it's an undefined risk trade. I wouldn't say I'm "worried" about it, mostly because I understand the risks and keep my sizing in check (very small). I'm just trying to see if there's a more effective way of managing it. With the put hedge, sure, it becomes 2 spreads; the same put debit spread and then a diagonal put spread where the long put is at a far higher strike and closer to expiration than the short put, which is it a far lower strike, and much higher expiration. >Generally, you enter into ratio spreads because you have a stronger conviction on direction Not with this trade. Again, this is considered an "omni" trade where direction is not the primary factor, but sure still relevant because it's net long delta. Because the short put has such high exposure to vega, it's more of a volatility play. This trade is primarily designed for income. Timing the entry is not very relevant. You just set and forget (for the most part), take profits when you want and re-deploy. I believe the trade was invented by Tom King; he has a YouTube channel and X account if you want to look further into it. He has other variations like the 1-1-2 and the 1-1-2LT. >What does hedging bring to the table that stop loss can not? Due to the high vega exposure, this trade becomes a loser very quickly on any IV spike. However, theta eats away all that vega, so a lot of times the best way to manage these is to do nothing and just wait. As long as the price stays above that short put, (which is usually very far OTM, like 10-13%) you're golden. If you set a stop loss on these, you're very likely to get stopped out at horrible times, especially when liquidity dries up, and then usually price reverts and bounces back without you, even if price never even got close to your short put. So if I trade these on ES mini and ES drops 3%, IV spikes and I get stopped out with a huge loss, it's kind of a huge disadvantage. Why would I stop out when price is still so far away from my short strike? With a hedge though, you give the trade time to recover, to let theta eat away the vega. If it's a serious crash, the hedge put covers the position (at least delta wise). Anyway, this is why I'm more interested in finding a way to hedge these vs using a stop loss.
Bloomberg “futures dip” ES actual -.07% The machine hums away
Buyers held the ES 6835 level. Market that line on your charts folks.
ES futures slashed through multiple support levels like butter in like 1 minute. Whatever the algos digested, the market did not like
/ES was unable to move far today due to low volatility.
The first sheet in the document is the "Universe" where all the tickers I track are loaded once. The second sheet is the portfolio, containing sections for retirement account holdings, brokerage account holdings, and cash like holdings. These are followed by summaries and evaluations of returns, and break downs of portfolio percentages. These are followed by a listing of sells for the year showing realized gains and showing short/ long for tax considerations. The third sheet is a digitized version of the 1040-ES worksheet I can plug W2 and capital gain info into to quickly estimate if I need to make estimated tax payments. The fourth sheet is the ES version for my state. Followed by random other sheets for discounted cash flow estimates.
The shrinking volume on ES since last week means that we are likely to get an outsized move; whether it is up or down, nobody knows. I am still holding 6960 ES calls. Let’s see if my gamble pays off.
100% You can blow up your account when becoming overly confident because that stuff will print for months, even with a few spike coming your way. You'll think no matter what you'll survive and then ... So always need to have an edge somewhere. ES to start with. And then you can try to be smart and buy puts on very speculative, high beta stocks and if possible those with spot vol correlation close to -1. The question becomes: what is the likelihood that you have a spike in VIX but MSTR for instance doesn't go down. Bonus point if you have something that tells you amongst your universe of targeted stock which one has cheap tails at the moment. It is honestly not a really hard trade. It is really a risk management trade. You'll have a couple of cold sweat once or twice a year but you can do extremely well.
The reason why this is a great trade is written in your handle. But that's okay. It always amuse me that people would wheel on something non mean reverting but the one thing mean reverting with a massive trend down .. OMG you're going to die !!! It's not a trade where you need to be particularly smart from a trading perspective. You need to be a good risk manager: buy some ES put with some of the proceed and you'll be fine.
I'm holding my put front ratio spread on both gold and ES mini futures through FOMC. Buying some cheap hedges in case of a huge crash but I'm expecting both to go higher after. We may get a decent dip if the Fed doesn't cut but I don't think it's going much lower. There's so much FUD around this meeting, I expect the market to rip higher. Market loves to climb a wall of worry...
/ES bulls must defend the breakout or it's failed breakout. If the flag breaks down, deep sell.
While I won’t tell you what to do. I have some 6960 calls on ES for Wednesday. Small relatively inexpensive play that was up this morning & is now down. But my thesis when I opened it last night was shakeout to some degree today & then some kind of pump into FOMC Wednesday. I don’t intend to hold all the way into FOMC though, any kind of pump before will see an extreme IV spike so I would get out there & then look to scalp the price action following the speech.
[https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=e8-Nfn2UuzC9jSLk)
Here's a link for you retards that don't know where to see futes [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=e8-Nfn2UuzC9jSLk)
It has for me but I mostly stay away from short calls now, have for at least 3 years. They keep getting ITM so I just don't feel they're rich enough for me to warrant selling them. I sell delta 20 puts on SPX, GC and less so on SI, NQ and ES. I roll them up at 50% profit and roll them out at 21 days. Sometimes it's tough, my strike for SPX in the tariff crash was 5700 and it went all the day to 4800. One roll later that strike was out of the money. It's pretty boring the majority of the time and the size of SPX means it has been really good return wise. I should say however my entire portfolio is a total world market index fund, that's the collateral for these options. On the call side I mostly do calendar calls or ratio spreads.
Any wealthy WSB members in here? Figured I would send this into the ether. I have a 10,000/10 strategy, backtested for over a year. Consistently wins strategy. My backtests showed win rate that is the in mid 80's. Not that that necessarily matters, because you could have a 90% win rate, but only on average catch 1 point on ES/NQ...etc. But the moves it catches are usually around 10 points a day, absolute minimum. Anyhow, not sure what I'm proposing really, but I'm not in the mental space currently to execute this strategy. Not in the correct space in life atm. If anyone has money + in a decent spot in life, with only a small edge in the market....well that is the opposite of what I have. I have the strategy, which I can go over with you, having trouble executing it due to emotions trading. Obviously I don't want to just give away this strategy that took me like 15 months back testing to come up with, a lot of late nights. But I see people blowing $100k-$400k on trades, and i'm like, dang, if only they had a strategy like mine or someone else, they could make so much money with some discipline. So, if anyone wants to team up potentially, talk for a little bit, see if it's a match, send me a DM. We could form a trading team. This is a long shot, but I know there's a wide net on WSB's. Been a trader for about 6+ years now, work at a #2 brokerage in the US. trying to transition to trading full time.
That’s awesome you’ve been successful trading with Kelly Criterion the past week especially given your gain percentage but couple of issues here for anyone else looking to replicate this: 1. You can’t know the p-win rate with certainty Kelly formulas presume zero slippage, zero skew, and a repeatable without deviance edge, conditions that break in a stochastic market and are orders of magnitude magnified in a 0DTE options environment. 2. You can’t know gain/loss R with certainty Slippage, volatility expansion skew - all of those invalidate R and thus replicability. 3. Drawdowns are path dependent Kelly assumes IID (independent, identically distributed outcomes) 4. Kelly tells you maximally aggressive sizing Even in hedge funds the prevailing rule trade 1/3 to 1/4 Kelly. Never full Kelly. Full Kelly is future port insolvency waiting to happen. You’ve defined winning as scalping here, that’s fine, but without defining what “win” means your whole mathematical equation is invalidated. Is the win condition a - scalp? Spread? Iron condor? Defined risk? Undefined risk? Each yields a completely different expectancy so 65% here is completely arbitrary. 5. Strategy gain/loss is asymmetrical 0DTE directional trades don’t behave like symmetric 30/30 gain/losses. A typical 0DTE profile is small gains, occasional large losses, massive hidden tail risk. Treating these gains/losses as symmetrical ratios is mathematically wrong. 6. Transfixing a fixed-edge gambling RoR formula to a stochastic market is a dangerous oversimplification. The formulas actually being used to model RoR in variable volatility markets are far more complex. Your post (and your linked guide) aren't’t entirely wrong but they’re dangerously misleading for the average WSB or SSB Redditor to be taken at face value. 0DTE has massive skew, volatility regime shifts, non-linear payoff distributions, gamma explosions (bi-directional), slippage, tail events, liquidity holes, and overnight risk not taken into account in your model. Using Kelly on derivatives with concave payoff and a fat tail risk leads to eventual, not probabilistic, ruin given enough repetitions. Your eventual ROI is eventually mathematically, negative. Kelly’s biggest hole here is redefining a worst case, repeatable scenario but thst falls flat in an inherently volatile and stochastic environment. 0DTE disproves that every day. Institutionals never go full Kelly or even half Kelly but typically fractional kelly (0.1-0.25 Kelly), Expected Shortfall (ES), Value at Risk (var), Kelly-adjusted for variance on edge, dynamic volatility targeting, Gamma exposure limits, and stress test analysis
All i see are /ES, how do you see spx?
What in the absolute fuck is Asia doing. ES moving more than all day in the US market
/ES futures are literally at the exact price they were before the META news dropped lol.
/ES opening line kinda resistant
Are you planning to wheel (sell covered calls) after you get assigned? If so, I think most backtesting will show buy and hold SPY outperforms wheeling it. That being said, if you want to just sell put premium, look into the 1-1-1 or put front ratio spread. These are undefined risk strategies so sizing properly and having a solid exit plan are key. It's not a strategy for newbies. You just have to be aware that one day it will get tested and if you don't have a plan in play (either a hedge or a mechanical stop), your account will get wrecked. Many blow their accounts on this strategy because they are reckless trading it. I often describe trading undefined risk like "dancing with the devil." It's easy money until it finally burns you, then it stings quite a bit. If you're careful and ready for it though, I think it's the best way to get income from options. I like to run them on ES mini futures for the span margin benefits (and accessibility) but if you're unfamiliar with futures mark-to-market and/or how span margin works, don't even touch it.
This is ES's bear march. Rook to E7 my puts are cooked aren't they
Sounds like you need to start trading futures my dude, /ES and /ZN are literally designed for exactly this kind of macro play instead of trying to backdoor it through stonks
If you bought 1ES contract at open today and sold at close you would be up $15k.
ES is so much less stressful than NQ. I think I’m switching teams
/ES traveled the flag range again. This will be a huge trend move once it breakouts. Hold runners.
ES up more than NQ. Not looking good for tech today.
/ES compressing. Trend move incoming.
SNAP might. Might. Be a turnaround story if/when ES and gang are booted. Until then,…this is a terrible idea
Literally every trade you make you are fighting against one retard with an X account putting you one post away from Zero, and if you're trading ES or NQ, you're one truth social post away from a margin call.
What's causing the disconnect between NVDA, NQ, and ES? They all traded in-sync with each other the last few weeks and now they're all over the place.
After last week's rally, /ES is digesting and building new structure.
I think they must go off of a slightly different contract, because their actual numbers are lower than what I have for /ES and /NQ in ToS, but the % gains are a tad higher.
5M ES shows an upward rising wedge. Soon to plummet
I was wondering about that as well. As I’m watching, ES getting dumped relatively hard, I think a lot of institutions are cashing out. If trend continues into NY session, he should be fine. So it’s TBD rather than set in stone - may even profit if lucky.
Why are people talking about crypto? Do people not realize what futures are? Futures markets are open and ES is down which tracks the same index as SPY. But it's also not uncommon for NY session to reverse from asia/London on Sunday, so who knows
/GC is saying rate cut coming but /ES not so sure about that
My smooth brain dumbass bought ES long on Friday at 1:05 not knowing the market closed at 1:15pm for the weekend. Sold for $100 profit but could have been wrecked if we gapped down!
Attention retards, Anyone who posts a futes link like this- [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=e8-Nfn2UuzC9jSLk) will be hearing from my lawyers. Thats my thing. I do it every Sunday. Get your own thing 😡
here is a link to futes since you're a regard that cant even look them up [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=e8-Nfn2UuzC9jSLk)
Here's a link for you retards that don't know where to see futes [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=e8-Nfn2UuzC9jSLk)
Stop using meme gamer brokers and get IBKR and enjoy your 23/5 ES trading and 21/5 SPX trading. And if you can't afford a single ES/SPX contract, probably save up some money, you are incredibily unlikely to turn that 300 dollars into 10k and having a 300 portfolio requires you to do 0 DTE all or nothing gambles to make any real money, or your gains are 22 bucks from scalping and that point, man, just spend the time doing something to raise income instead so you have actual money to gamble with.
For me Q42024 earnings trades (Jan-March 2025) had more big moves than the other earnings seasons. Profitable overall, but better profitability with Q1-Q3 earnings trades. 0 DTE short strangles (8-16 delta) were profitable for the year and REALLY profitable in April / May. Started playing around with 1DTE strategies. I think because there is so much focus on 0DTE that it may be easier to find an edge in 1 DTE plays. Still experimenting and backtesting to get comfortable with a clean strategy. And I was messing around with futures short strangles (ES / NQ / CL) during liberation day and learned a very big lesson. I ignored my stop-loss because I thought the policy was crazy and everyone would come to their senses - and got my first margin call in over 30 years of trading. Small, high-risk trading account, so not life changing. But mr market definitely took me to school. Will never happen again.
SPX is about 60 to 90k depending on the strike and the number of open contracts. SPY is about 10% of that. Where it differs between RM and PM is if you own a wing it will be considerably less than the width of the strikes in PM. ES is about 8k to 25k. That's the one that is the most capital efficient since it's a futures contract
Coincidentally right as the dead cat bounce was over and the real move down was happening on ES.
Don’t know why you felt the need to downvote me. SPX options on CBOE. The GTH are 8:15pm - 9:25am. But they are currently not quoting as a knock on effect of the CME outage. Not surprising, since any market quoting SPX overnight is pricing off of the /ES price.
I pick which one expiration has the most volume. I day trade them so really all I care about is liquidity. Futures pay per tick. There is no buy in so to say. You control a contract, if it goes your direction you get paid whatever that future pays per tick, opposite of it goes down. For example… ES mini is the s and mini futures. They pay $12.50 per tick. A tick is .25. One full point is 4 ticks, which means one point is $50. So every point the s and p goes in your direction you get $50 per point, (or $12.50 per tick). If you decide to control more contract, say 10, then each tick is $125.
Options provide a level of...options that you can't get with other instruments. I trade both futures and options and depending on the day and the setup I will choose one over the other. I trade ES futures for level to level scalps based on SPX delta/gamma and expected dealer hedging dynamics. You can't trade futures when PA is sideways but you can sure make good money in a sideways market with flys.
For weeklys, I'll do 20 wide on ES (equivalent to 10-wide on SPX), with the short strike around .20-.25 delta. For every other product, I'll do a similar width per lot ($1k, minus credit received -- usually $200-$250 credit with max loss of $750-$800 per lot). If I'm trading 30-45 DTE, I'll do a similar spread, maybe a bit wider but higher lot. For 90-120DTE, I'll do 50-100 wide. My general rule is the lower the DTE, the smaller the size of the trade. Higher DTE, bigger size. I also occasionally dabble in 0DTE (SPX only). For those, I like to either sell 5-wide or I'll buy a really cheap OTM long option, and then sell a single for about $250, with a stop loss at 1x. My 0DTE trades are tiny though, I use them for a bit of "weekend money." For risk management, I generally either roll or stop out at 1x, for weeklys, more often closer to 2x.
I am leaning more towards this. Can you share on futures how wide your credit spreads are and what is your profit taking and stop loss rules? I’m exploring future credit spreads on ES at 120 DTE and maybe 100 wide 15 Delta.
Yeah holy shit you're not kidding. /ES average true range is like below 2
>royally fucked one day with months or years of profit gone in an instant. That's because most people -- including yourself, apparently -- are *silly*. It's very simple. If you're going to sell puts, make sure it's on a company (or better yet index fund) *you want to actually own*. Now, if you are *silly* and want to own a fluffed up meme stock like MSTR, hey, more power to ya. But don't be surprised when you then get assigned on shares after the stock plummets 25% and you're stuck selling CC's below your cost basis for months or years... Nobody to blame but yourself for that. Those "juicy premiums" come with a high cost. Or you could do what I do, and just sell credit spreads. **Defined risk**. "Most beautiful words. The best words" as the pompous dotard would say. But yes, indeed, I sleep quite alright. I used to wheel MES futures (it's like SPY) until I realized credit spreads on ES/SPX are just better in every way, especially because it's defined risk. I also sell on GC, CL, ZB... I mostly just sell premium on futures nowadays, all credit spreads. I also sell as high as 120DTE sometimes, but these are usually larger positions that I only enter selectively and very far OTM. Lately, the market's been a bit skittish so I've been happy with small, low risk weekly trades. Returns have been smaller but I'm loving the low risk. Anyway, if you want to keep risk extra small, just sell weekly credit spreads and make sure you're comfortable with your max loss. Roll at 1-2X if you must. You'd be surprised how those little "checks" add up. It's really not that hard.
> wild to see fear and greed index so low at 14 with SPY not even $15 from ATH This is a bullshit indicator. Just look at the historical option pricing for overnight futures. Typically ATM /ES should be 10 with *the lowest* amount of "fear", 15-20 is "a big bad" and 30-50's is april level of dropping.
/ES broke out of it's steep downtrend channel.
ES is 30 pts above it rn, looking promising
ES right at resistance. I bought puts. But ofcourse the markets gonna keep pumping 😁
Closed my /ES and /NQ futes. Gonna call this good for a nice run and sit back a while.
Up bigly on ES calls, do I get slaughtered as a pig or hold hmmmm
It’s amazing how quickly you lose everything on ES futures and ES options.
Loaded on ES shorts for open fuck it
BTC: Dumps ES\_F: Dumps "Later that evening..." BTC: Moons ES\_F: (doesn't care)
HEY BITCOIN WHALE: Why not stop selling BTC and just start buying ES\_F? Damn thing goes up when you're not selling, might as well make some money.