ES

r_BigUziHorizont

because you don't have to be overly bullish for a PCS. i had similar trades on (albeit not 740k lmao), and my thesis was that we would hold the 200 SMA by this week (and hopefully next as I have one more on as part of an iron condor). If you get a drop, you can still play a PCS even if you're not overly bullish as you just need to hold the short strike to get max gain. You would've lost a ton of money longing ES futures this week, but you could make a max win on a PCS.

systerix

For credit spreads, my risk (and profit) is exactly defined - for long ES futures it's a more variable margin. For ES - if my position goes against me I'm immediately losing money. For credit spreads, position can go against me but I can stoll profit as theta is continuing to burn. Today is an example case - market dropped up to 0.7% approaching my short leg (6600) and my implies profits were still increasing because of theta burn. However the trade off is that I have to put up more collateral (in this case $740k) whereas for ES it'll be less, depending on the number of contracts I wouldn't say I'm bullish, it's more than I think SPX will remain above a certain threshold (for this week that was 6600) and am making a bet on that. Next week I believe the level will be 6500.

Competitive_Rise4729

If you’re that bullish why not just go long ES futures? What’s the reasoning since you risk so much of your capital for a defined loss? I imagine margin and commission would be lower to gain similar long exposure.

Imaginary_Tear_2328

Just ES today bro

w562d67Z

Would love for us to stay in touch. I'm a CTA and a trader working for a $10 bil RIA so I owuld be very interested in this as a service since I almost always have a short vol book in ES and risk assets.

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES bears still in control and selling bounces.

Ok-Piano8789

i try a long ES here =\]

MarginCalledManager

ES is right around the 50 day ~6640; we either bounce here or we collapse beneath it

Imaginary_Tear_2328

Made a decent amount today ($3k) But shit— shorted 2 ES at 6730.75 and bough back at 6728.75 That’s like $8500 Damn

brannock_

Huh /ES is at 6700 and QQQ is at 600

CUbuffGuy

I paid for data for SPX and ES and it's so nice to actually see every tick, even if it doesn't actually change trading much

DAlphaOne

Also, to address your comment specifically on what to trade, I chart on ES/NQ and take the options trade on SPY, QQQ. SPX is expensive but you can find good deals after the lunch sesh. Other daytrades/leaps, I look for stocks I like or use. Kinda funny but I feel like I take money back from spending with them. Like, if my wife shops at target, I'll see if there's good opportunities on TGT. I know it's dumb but I try not to complicate it. If it's not there, it's not there.

RemarkableVictory990

damn ES CL -0.8 corr

Historical_Shower551

Needed this. I’ll note to short Nnvidia , long helium and sulfur futures if it exist. Longing the yen and shorting the Nikkei, Nasdaq,ES and Korean index futures. Also longing corn futures for shits and giggles. Can anybody get me a direct line to North Korea? I’m thinking about longing their potato futures if it exists. Tatoes seem prevalent over there

Significant_Speed854

Being a bull for the next couple weeks means you’re betting against oil. Oil and ES are just inverting each other. No point.

brannock_

if you doubt for even ONE SECOND that the trading action is fraudulent, pull up the /ES chart and compare the overnight action -- trendy, momentum, can see the build-up and cool-off of pressure -- to the RTH action which looks like a fucking seismometer The MMs are deliberately yanking price action back and forth as to burn as much option premium as possible.

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES bears in control and bounces getting sold.

Ok-Piano8789

price rejecting ES VWAP so cleanly so many times in a row lol

SighRamp

/ES cracks and holds under 6693 and the 200SMA, adios.

MasterSexyBunnyLord

This is incorrect. European stocks are usually paired with American options Indexes and futures are usually paired with European options that they need listed in Europe or anywhere else. You can write CCs, short puts etc using European options of course too. Like if you buy an ES future today you can sell a call on it. ES is the s&p 500 future and it uses European options except for end of quarter options Same thing in Asia, Asian options are used worldwide but usually American style options are paired with Asian stocks and so on

Less_Spare_6970

Why tf ES price so disconnected from SPY?

BertAnsink

Contango om ES futures mainly has to do with interest rates and predicted dividends not so much with expected market movements.

katrav86

why is the move ratio of /NQ vs /ES so much changed? just because /NQ sold off earlier in the year?

BertAnsink

You can just short VIX futures. You just have to be careful with margin don’t go full port. Say you do have a scenario like last year where VIX spikes to 60+ you can be margin called if not careful. The VIX future will never get as high as spot fox though as these spikes cause the curve to flip from contante to backwardation. Plus since VIX is generally rangebound as in won’t stay rising forever you can double down on your trade. Something I would not advise doing on say ES futures.

Null_Reference1

They're not binary options in the traditional sense, they're CFTC-regulated derivatives traded on actual exchanges (ForecastEx, Kalshi, CME Group). Big difference from the offshore binary options that got banned. The three exchanges worth knowing: ForecastEx ($1 payout, \~$0.01 fee per contract, available at IBKR), Kalshi ($1 payout, $0.02 total fees, available at Robinhood and Webull), and CME Group ($100 payout, $0.25-0.40 fees, available at IBKR and NinjaTrader). Liquidity varies a lot by market. ES contracts are liquid, some of the niche political stuff less so. One thing people miss: IBKR actually pays 3.8% interest on capital locked up in positions, which matters if you're holding longer-dated contracts like Fed rate bets.

Available-Range-5341

I think now is a good time to buy CRM, MSFT, AMT, HD, BX, and PG. Maybe ES. BX may be a bit controversial, but the rest are good AND all dipped a bit so you're getting a bit of a sale, which is why I recommend them. MMM and CLX are in dips after recent rallies so might be good to I'm assuming you're saying you don't care about the next ten years but I am sure at some level, you'd be pissed if you lost $ tomorrow, hence I recommend things already down but with good earnings Actually making this list I realized credit card stocks are way down too, maybe AXP is a buy?

louis-debroglie

Watch 10YR futures... they have been ahead of the move all day Lots of noise in ES & NQ from dip buyers, federal manipulators, and people who don't understand what's actually happening, but the direction was signaled by the move in treasuries all day

Country_Gravy420

Asia is going to sell ES futures like crazy

Upset-Motor-2602

Same here, but staying away from oil and gas, too volatile for me. Swing/Scalp ES futures.

Roygbiv-Turtle-98

you dont need the slash just say ES this aint fuckin thinkorswim bitch

Roygbiv-Turtle-98

Yea, 1000 pts on NQ ain't much these days apparently. Trust me. I've been trading NQ and ES since 2020. Eat my ass, bb.

its_probably_wine

ES futures are contango through June. VX futes are pretty flat staying around ~23. You may consider cutting some of the April just to preserve something.

Elforas_Tero

Triple bottom on NQ and ES. Bers r fuk

Roygbiv-Turtle-98

exactly. trends are dependent on time frame. currently in a 5m mega ber-gaping uptrend on ES/NQ - even the 1hr has broken the "downtrend" from the peak 2 weeks ago to the highs last week, currently trading above the downtrendline on NQ. idk if you can see the pic but the pink lines are just ONH/ONL markers so ignore those https://preview.redd.it/18eiowr1ccog1.png?width=724&format=png&auto=webp&s=03f92116a214664cc5134d737c6a4d3dadb75e25

Upset-Motor-2602

Oh, that explains the crazy movement in ES futures...Glad I punched out!

Bright-Ad6621

You really don't need the high leverage CFDs market. I didn't start being consistently profitable after losses over time untill I switched to Futures. E-mini S&P 500 (ES): 4 ticks per point 4 contracts = 1 point ($50) per move, a 20 point move is $1,000. I swing trade for weeks at a time, my average open position time is around a month when I catch a sweet spot runner. Other than that most of my trades survive about a week. I take a bunch of paper cuts looking for solid entries on the buy side and usually end up losing a few grand in a day before I call it quits for the day, when I catch a good runner I trail the stop loss for hours or days, wiping my red days clean plus profit, and when I get lucky I usually have enough profit built up to have multiple weeks worth of red days before im back to break even or red on the month as long as i don't over trade past my $4K per day loss limit rule. All that to say is Futures forced me to trade less and look at the market differently. Once you get over lots and start getting familiar with the different contract sizes and their tick values, it gets pretty easy from there.

iShitBloodandCumShit

Berz ES is a giant HS forming. Short toots here.

Theipodrookie

For the love of god will you regards take a look at the ES daily chart and let me know what you see whenever one of these giant ass wicks are made

Country_Gravy420

Asia is going to buy ES futures like crazy and pump this shit

Bubbly-Fly-205

Incredible 150+ point bear trap on /ES.

Upset-Motor-2602

That is why I didn't short ES futures... It's shit like this. A flippant comment amplified on X, and you are fcked.

Ridiculous_Society

I have to say, I'm completely unimpressed by this rally; no surprise it's happening, but this is a dead cat bounce if I've ever seen one. Could it continue back to 6800 on ES? Sure. But with financials and transports so weak, this thing will come off just as fast. Once we break through 24k on NQ and 6550 on ES, there's nothing but air below.

Upset-Motor-2602

I want to short ES Futures, but afraid of Mango Man tweets...

IntentionExpert6732

Yaaa it’s not looking good mon frere, if ES climbs back between 690.50-718.50, we’re gonna open back inside that balance on SPY, there’s resistance on the Spy between 671.46-673.01 and then 676.46-678.25, that’s your last line of defense on the spy before this launches back up, I’m not surprised that we’re about to close that gap on ES, the next level of support for the spy is way to low they’re going to have to draw that out over some days, plus ES just left a weak Hi at 690.25 sooo.

iShitBloodandCumShit

ES order filled at 6586 green dildo boiz.

2020isgreat

Bols declaring victory from ES being down 1%

-TrueFacts-

lol some poor bastards trading ES futures no doubt went all in jacked to the tits when it recovered halfway after the big red candle...... and then it fell again 😝

Coffeewin

Long /NQ and /ES at the bottom got me bricked up 🤌

Roygbiv-Turtle-98

somewhere there is a bear that shorted ES at 6584 tonight

PetikMangga-

whats ES - CCS ?

joe4942

> WTI up almost 30% in one day but ES down only 2% speaks volumes. The big mistake I think many are probably making is thinking this is just like tariffs, and Trump can fix it one day simply by putting out a tweet. The current situation is not something that can be fixed in a day. Even in a best case scenario, it will take weeks and even months to have any sort of return to normal in oil markets, and even when things return to normal, there will probably still be some risk priced into oil, so it definitely won't be returning to $60. Something like $70-80 is probably more realistic longer-term which is great for producers, but still creates inflation.

calm_discussion_3500

WTI up almost 30% in one day but ES down only 2% speaks volumes. To me it says market doesn't believe inflation will have any lasting effect and more importantly Fed will see through it and view it to be transitory. Ultimately I think people will end up surprised this event ends up way smaller effect than it appears. Of course it could also mean equities are wrong and asleep here.

pootenanner

Holy fuck too busy with crude to realize ES broke 6660. My shorts are rippinnnnn

Coffeewin

Just went long /ES 6605 and /NQ 24075 certified knife catcher 🤗🪦

Ridiculous_Society

If ES passes 6500, this thing is going to collapse out of the sky. I expect a little rally in the morning, maybe 1% before they continue this. As long as oil is exploding, the markets will continue to get hammered.

EvolvingDior

Word on the street is /ES 6600 triggers a massive sell off. We're about 10 points from there.

gamjatang111

looks like correlation of 1 event is near. TLT selling, Gold Selling, no where to flee really. Personally i am in Gold, nat gas stocks and managed futures ETF atm. Managed futures etf seem to be doing good most are net short ES or have heavy cash positions.

BooBrew32

If this were a real crash, we would've hit limit down by now. But ES\_F hasn't even hit -2%.

Spooky_Mulder27

ES Main down 125 points woah

BooBrew32

Vix futes are up a measly couple of bucks and ES\_F hasn't moved out of its channel for over two hours. If this was a serious crash, we'd be limit down. This is orderly horseshit.

IntentionExpert6732

This lol but its 50/50 if ES turns 526.75-492.25 into resistance this isn’t going back up and market open is gonna be nasty, straight puts out the open like full port

BooBrew32

Futures have barely budged for almost two hours. "NO, it's not worth that much! NO WAIT, it's not worth that little! ES\_F has to be exactly 6625! That's the only price it can be!"

IntentionExpert6732

Possibly, ES has support at 6,524.75-6,503.75 and then another at 6,441.00. If they hold at 524.75-503.75 this has a good chance of snapping back up but that chance is lessened if they lose that zone. I have an area of support on the Spy between 655.85-652.82, I just can’t see the SPY getting that low in a single swipe I feel like it would get drawn out but we’ll see, so far the stars are aligning in your favor.

SWATSWATSWAT

What's a crash mean? We talking 20% or less? It'd be more fun if you made this a contest and we all had to pick a NQ, ES, or CL price by EOW.

louis-debroglie

It comes through more clearly with ES/NQ vs the Russell 2000 Word is that Mag 7 is where money is going to hide right now, but that's just people in denial, the last vestiges of the now-destroyed bull market

gnanwahs

ES and NQ only down -1.6% lmao, expect a -3% down at open

Wowmuchrya

Nq is safer than ES during a recession because of the mag7’s cash flow. Look at friday before 3pm.

Coffeewin

/GC is dumping while /NQ is down less than /ES, I actually can't read this market

jonneh

You can use TradingView but it’ll be delayed, ticker ES1!

MarginCalledManager

I find it impossible to believe Germans can’t see /ES /NQ /YM and any other futures contract through their broker

MarginCalledManager

Get a real broker and add /ES /NQ /YM /SI /CL and all other futures contracts to your watch list….

MarginCalledManager

/ES bid/ask now down 50

MarginCalledManager

/ES pre-open bid/ask is down 35

MarginCalledManager

/ES futures bid/ask opens down 40 lmao

LarryStink

ES going to open at 6675 Cl will open at 95. 🔮🙌

systerix

Follow me and eventually you'll see! It's really just a combo of shorting ES + selling call credit spreads, and opportunistically reducing my existing put credit spread position (which would entail eating losses). Key is how I stagger the hedges and manage size (too large a hedge can easily backfire, and vice versa)

systerix

At various times from when futures open on Sunday evening (8:15pm ET) to Tuesday. For these most were concentrated on Sunday around 3-4am when markets dropped hard (ES was down like 1.5% if i remember correctly) and I added a few addtl positions when markets dropped on Tuesday before they recovered hard. Contract sizing is dependent on portfolio size, I have a strict rule to make sure I have at least the full risked amount in cash ready to hedge (i.e. 50%) but other than that I am all fair game. I sometimes only risk $50k, sometimes I can go up to $1mm cumulative - all depends on my view of the market at the time. During high VIX times like these (18-25) I make tons of money, but when VIX drops to that 12-13 area then I may only make a couple grand a week just given premiums are so small (at this point I am legit picking up pennies in front of a steamroller)

systerix

Shorting ES and CCS primarily So once my cheek gets penetrated my hedges will PRINT HARD

dontslambro

Ive got 12 ES futures right now

w562d67Z

This is interesting to me. I typically sell far otm puts on ES due to the overpricing on those as you described. I always felt that commodities markets were skewed on the call side so otm calls should exhibit the vol risk premium that's present in otm puts in equities. Is your research showing that both calls and puts are underpriced relative to realized vol for most of these commodities?

iShitBloodandCumShit

Market needs a catalyst. Someone, go short ES.

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES bears took control overnight.

CUbuffGuy

Sold my ES contracts last night at a 4k loss because it just kept ticking up lol. I was positive we would see some downside before data but the market was being aids lol. Would be up like 10-12k now instead lol. Fucking hate pajama traders sometimes

HalversonKathy14

Market has been wonderful lately. Those ES shorts have been quite a ball. 

BlendedNotPerfect

holding ES without a stop is basically letting the max drawdown decide for you, one overnight gap against the position can wipe multiple days of gains., so the practical check is defining your risk in points before entry and confirming the contract margin and maintenance rules with your broker

spyputs1

Time to stretch your dong and go long ES tonight

spyputs1

Time to stretch your dong and go long on the ES tonight, they might be pumping into Friday expiration

Imaginary_Tear_2328

Did make about $4500 today. Only plan remaining - and need to look at Spy not just ES— if Spy hits $675 sometime between 2-2:30pm gonna V from there and I’m going long

PlasticDiscussion590

https://youtu.be/CFG5dk1GyRo?si=9ES8nkQPxJKysfWr

demi9od

A .05 increment on SPX is a .005 increment on SPY, half a cent. They are more granular, not less. In addition SPX effectively has half dollar strikes, equiv to SPY 680.5, 681.5, etc, also more granular. The commissions are the only drawback, but with this low frequency trading I don't think that would be an issue. I wonder though if MES/ES futures are not the better trade here. That is easily backtested.

iShitBloodandCumShit

*whips out the fancy crayons on ES futures* We either pump to 6970 or dump to 6650.

OptionGamble

I got money on ES so it matters to me

EvolvingDior

ES (SPX futes) rejected 6900 pretty resoundingly.

Competitive-Elk9326

This is how you know the bers are getting nervous, live updates on the ES 1s chart 🤣

MarginCalledManager

that equals ES 6900… hard to pull of with this price action

Theipodrookie

Cope harder 🤣 I said SPY would be 687 from 679 and now it's ES is 30 points away ok

EvolvingDior

ES still 30 points away from 6920. Don't move the goalpost now.

MarginCalledManager

so close to taking out the highs and exploding over ES 6900 and towards SPY 690… gogogo

MarginCalledManager

ES 6900 plz

Kind_Initiative_7567

This is the last 5 min candle for ES - been noticing it gets hammered back here for past few days 😂