ES

YOLOdollhair

Patiently waiting with my ES short for Bibi to shoot missiles at Lebanon and tear this concept of a deal to shreds.

Bubbly-Fly-205

Early formation of a large bull flag on /ES.

Forward-Surprise1192

I was looking at that as well. If SPX jumps up then it’s going to print. ES futures are the SPX future so idk? Buy it and see.

FatFluffyFish

12 more points on ES to reach 7600. Cmon big guy

Forward-Surprise1192

How close to SPX opening price are ES futures? ES is listed at $7,518 right now. Does that mean at like 10am SPX will be close to that?

FatFluffyFish

/ES Futes slight retrace then going up even higher. Bers are omegafucked

Scalpaholic

We've got downward divergence in the RSIs and MACDs across ES, NQ and RTY. Yet futes are flatlining now from the fake deal pump. Sell orders are loading up for MMs to drop the floor under Bols when Big Money pulls the trigger. Prob as early as 10:30am ET Monday with constant 45° selling just like Black Friday 2 weeks ago after a similar fake peace deal pump.

Forward-Surprise1192

Is that ES futures?

Forward-Surprise1192

The options price simulator for SPX shows a $7,550 call is currently buying for $7.10 but if you check the price simulator it shows as possibly worth $8k. What does that mean? ES futures for June show $7,516 if that’s relevantv

dontbelievejustwatch

I didn’t trade Friday. I’m a little confused… The deal was announced today ya? But it looks like at 4 pm eastern Friday, ES futures jumped 100 points?

Capt_Chickenpox

Well, I sold my ES 7525 6/18 C at an 82% gain. I can't stand this shit. Every moment feels like the market will turn 180 degrees. Fuck you all and good luck.

WorldlyWar2143

ES is up less than 1% wtf are you smoking retard

Capt_Chickenpox

I have an ES 7525C 6/18 wtf do i even do now? i expected to be down? Now i have to guess whether i should sell now or wait till tomorrow or something?

Significant_Speed854

60k of positions and you're only up 1,100 and NQ and ES are up this huge? my god you must suck

KittyLover-7

Am I seeing things or did ES charts rocket down

Capt_Chickenpox

Fuck i have ES 7525C expiring on the 18th, do i sell now?

Delicious_Put_5857

120 ES gap up do u know how awesome this is got damn

onerandomcomputerguy

Just went long ES1 🚀🚀

VolSpread_

ES is great, but as you said, size is the issue, and that is what holds me back because it creates too much exposure for my portfolio. I used ES before mostly for put credit spreads. Assignment should not happen on SPY either if you place a farther OTM calendar and close it before price gets close to the short leg. I do not close based on a fixed rule, but rather as soon as IV comes back into balance ... basically, I trade anomalies in RV/IV. Sometimes that can take one day, sometimes 20 days. But after more than 20 days, vega is already too weak, so I may leave the option open a little longer to let theta do some work, but not for too long because then gamma becomes the problem.

BlackDriller23

I trade a similar idea, but mostly using ES futures options instead of SPY. So assignment risk is not the main issue for me, but contract size and risk management become much more important. My approach is fairly systematic: enter on a specific weekday, use defined front/back expirations, and exit after a fixed number of trading days rather than holding into expiration. For backtesting, I don’t have clean long-term historical ES options data, so I test the logic on SPY options and then adjust the interpretation for ES. It’s not perfect, but it helps evaluate entry timing, exit timing, IV regime, and how the actual P/L path differs from the calculator profile shown at entry.

InformationVast2718

Bro you are living five different lifetime movies at once 💀 Respect for turning felony Friday into futures Friday but for real, lock in that lawyer and chill size for a bit. W streaks feel invincible right up until they don’t and you’re back explaining to a judge how “ES looked juicy on the 15m.”

ClevelandSteamer81

“Look, nobody — and I mean NOBODY — has been in more perfect positions than me. Incredible positions. The best positions. Two days in a row, folks, two days in a row. Yesterday? I’m short the ES. Beautiful short. Up six hundred dollars — which by the way is a lot of money, very impressive — and I’m heading straight to my profit target. Now was it a perfect profit target? No. Frankly it was a terrible target. Sad, even. But we were getting there. And then — BOOM. Somebody decided to open his big beautiful mouth and I got stopped out for a thousand dollars. A THOUSAND dollars. Just like that. So today — and this shows you how smart I am, I learn, I adapt, nobody adapts like me — I flip long. Tremendous long. Up five hundred, moving beautifully, and I say to myself, ‘once we hit six hundred, we move that stop to breakeven.’ Very disciplined. Very presidential, actually. BAM. Stopped out. A thousand dollars. Gone. Now here’s where it gets interesting — and people are saying this, a lot of people — I doubled down. Was that the right move? Many experts are saying yes, actually. But we lost two thousand more dollars almost immediately. Almost immediately! And I’ll tell you what — this guy has it out for me. Personally. It’s a witch hunt on my trading account. Total persecution. Totally unfair. Many people are saying it.”

Gold_Victory3435

it's not really market manipulation. SPY, SPX, and XSP are commanded by /ES, the S&P futures. If you can manipulate or "move" that, then you can command SPY. SPY movement has nothing to do with Stocks. Maybe this is the manipulation part, you claim. institutions can move /ES and do all the time, esp during premarket.

unhappyreach_

Well, if this deal is real, SPY could still squeeze a bunch from here MM and the bunch were super heavy shorts on ES. I'm not sure how much of today's pump was the ES short unwinding, but I feel we should have plenty more juice

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES up over 160 points from last night's bear trap.

OurNewestMember

Also what happens at front month expiration majorly impacts PnL assumptions. A debit call calendar on SPX can easily become delta positive at front expiration where the comparable spread with physically-settled ES futures options can easily become delta negative at front expiration. Contract specs and your intention to hold the back contract can completely change or invalidate the PnL calculator

Necessary-Chain4066

With $3k the wheel on individual stocks is tough since you'll be locked into cheap names with worse liquidity. PutYield focuses on ES futures options which are more capital efficient, though the margin requirements might still stretch your account. Worth understanding the mechanics even if you size up later.

Necessary-Chain4066

The psychology around closing trades is so much harder than the mechanics once you're running real size. I've watched a few systematic services that just remove the decision entirely, which seems to be the only thing that actually fixes the discipline gap. PutYield is one that comes to mind - they only enter when ES is above key EMAs and send the full setup Sunday evening so you're not deciding anything in the moment. For the Sharpe issue, the variance you're seeing from letting losers run will keep crushing that metric regardless of total return.

Necessary-Chain4066

Backtesting systematic put selling on ES would be a solid one to run. Filter entries with EMA trend confirmation, only write when futures sit above key levels, then compare raw short put P/L against the filtered version. PutYield publishes a verified 482-trade track record using exactly that rules-based EMA filter, so their data could serve as a useful benchmark against whatever your own backtest turns up.

Necessary-Chain4066

Section 1256 was written specifically for broad-based index derivatives, so SPX and ES futures options get the 60/40 blend automatically. SPY doesn't qualify because it's an ETF, not a broad index contract. PutYield has a decent breakdown of how this works for ES options if you want the mechanics.

Necessary-Chain4066

I saw your post about recovering from losses and using a systematic income approach with options. PutYield has a similar setup for selling weekly ES puts when the market is in an uptrend. It takes the manual work out of watching the charts and deciding when to enter. Might be worth a look if you want to keep that income idea simple.

OddWeb4671

I was there too but I kept trading and did it right with options and now futures. It’s not hard you just have to do it right and be honest with your self about your strategy and what works for you. I trade spy/SPX and ES futures scalping usually 0dte

fuf3d

Been trading for a while and watching the futures contracts around expiration you can get an extreme amount of volitility. /ES and /NQ are rolling to the next quarter contract and you have to sell this front contract to close it out and who wants to buy the back month contract at a higher price. So my theory is large firms dump the front month futures contract and it translates to selling in the index funds based of the contract and cascades down into the individual stocks that make up the indexes and ETFs that track them. It's cyclical more than news or data driven. This one is also amped up due to IPO kickoff on Friday, freeing up capital to go in on the IPO and the ETFS and indexes all over again. The news is so far behind what's happening they are making shit up at this point. Everytime I read an article about the market it's lagging reality so bad it's laughable. Also you can consider moves like this "shakeout" moves to force liquidation on over leveraged accounts and positions. After the massive rally a pull ack like this around futures contract expiration is normal and it's good for the market.

Significant_Speed854

Can somebody explain the god candles happening on ES and NQ?

Delicious_Put_5857

ES movin 20 pts every few mins 😳

PoliticsRealityTV

Longed some more /ES 0 DTEs--betting that the market wants any excuse to rally so a CPI that isn't something insane like 8% will give them that reason.

xInfinity962

Y'all know the /ES is down like 10 bucks in the past 2 hours right

PoliticsRealityTV

Many here seem bearish on CPI so just longed 0 DTEs on /ES. It should crash now, you're welcome.

Delicious_Put_5857

not like it cant keep going down but its funny seeing people who were v-tards for the last 2 months now flipping bearish with ES almost at -3 stdev bb

Emergency-Ticket5859

FYI anyone looking at the SPY or ES chart over the last couple days will see multiple retests of the post crash low, and now a sweep of the high. The market can now choose a direction

iShitBloodandCumShit

I’m going short ES. Enjoy the green fucking dildo.

Miserable_Mine_4189

on what ES?

-IQ200

Potential ES double bottom 7390s. 7500 retest probably. Guaranteed maybe.

LarryStink

100pt wide butterfly at 7000 on spx for next friday and 100pt wide put vertical 7300/7200 for this friday on ES. 

Bubbly-Fly-205

/ES digesting rally. Still need to backtest breakdown above.

dontbelievejustwatch

anyone follow adam mancini the ES trader? he miraculously buys every bottom and is out every time before it reverses back to the mean. truly incredible stuff. best part is, he only charges $20/month for his sub stack subscription so you know it's legit despite never posting any position screenshots

GeoLogic23

Yea that would definitely be a part of it. As well as needing the infrastructure to support large scale production of fiber/fuel products from that hemp. Here's some of things that the group [Minorities for Medical Marijuana](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/752540db-b40b-4803-8690-96c6660b32e9/print/) were lobbying for up through 2023. This gives you an idea of some of the incentives hemp could be looking for: * Hemp for American Made Biofuel Production Act - **Adding Hemp to the US Biofuel production programs** as a strategy to for increasing Hemp licensed Producers and diversifying our clean energy sources for ethanol/auto fuel, blended biofuel, aviation fuel, home heating, commercial heating and other fuel based applications. * Add statutory language via the 2023 Farm Bill and Environmental Protection Agency regulatory rule to **add Hemp as an EPA defined Native Plant** to the Environmental Protection Agencys: >Superfund Redevelopment Program Ecological reuse Ecological restoration and revegetation of contaminated sites Ecosystem services (ES) Green Remediation Revegetating Landfills and Waste Containment Areas as a plant crop that can be incorporated into site remediation plans for Superfund and Legacy toxic landfill sites. * Crop Insurance reform legislation and State implementation of Hemp programs - making **Crop Insurance** more accessible and cost effective to minority farmers and providing **relief for failed Hemp crop production** and/or loss valuation. * Increase access for Hemp in the **USDA BioPreferred Program designates categories for federal purchasing** as well as identifies certification categories for the voluntary labeling initiative. Unique biobased content minimums have been established as part of the process of designating categories for federal purchasing preference. Categories that only fall under the voluntary labeling initiative have a minimum biobased content of 25%. * Ensure the applicability of Hemp as an **eligible environmental Construction product for the Environmental Product Information Program**. This program provides $250 million to support the development and enhanced standardization and transparency of environmental product declaration for construction materials and products. * Safe Advertising Act - Senator Ben Ray Lujans Bill - Summary: The Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Advertising Act, which will permit radio and television stations to accept advertising for legal cannabis products if the station is licensed in states that permit the advertising of medical or adult-use cannabis. The SAFE Advertising Act removes the risk that stations could lose their licenses if they accept ads for legal cannabis products. For stations in states that have not legalized cannabis advertising, the legislation would leave the law as it is today and would not interfere with state regulation of cannabis advertising. Legislation to protect broadcasters from penalty and provide advertising services on-air for Cannabis Companies, which opens up advertising opportunities for Black and Minority Media organizations with the Cannabis Industry. * Creating 420 Industrial Hemp Processors in four years Act - Currently, there are only 20 operating Hemp Processors in America, which doesn't the support the development of Industrial Hemp products for domestic usage and exporting opportunities. Providing investment and regulatory support to increase the number of Hemp licensed Processors for the Industrial Hemp Sector and creating new Hemp exporting opportunities (working with the Department of Commerce Global Export Diversity coordinator). **Provide funding allocations for lending vehicle through MDIs and CDFIs for capital access for interested Hemp Processors.**

iShitBloodandCumShit

What if I told you that dump was just an excuse to go higher 🤌 Also, I fucking hate the ES chart right now and hope this isn’t just a bol trap.

iShitBloodandCumShit

If ES rejects 7470, sell and buy the dip lmao.

iShitBloodandCumShit

ES futes could have another 20+ points to run before wicking down and testing those lower support EMAs. Fairly confident we aren’t hitting the daily SPX ema78. Per usual, berz will be driven into extinction.

iShitBloodandCumShit

ES futes have another 20+ points to run before wicking down and testing those lower support EMAs. Fairly confident we aren’t hitting the daily SPX ema78. Per usual, berz will be driven into extinction.

iShitBloodandCumShit

Bullish, 5m EMA9 is looking strong. But still expecting a quick wick to stop retail longs out lmao(ES)

iShitBloodandCumShit

I would enter only at 7423-7427 on ES if you decide to fomo. Between roll week, quad witching, and Warsh FOMC the next 2 weeks will be a shitshow. Don’t fuck your portfolio up by chasing green dildos unless you buy calls on VIX first.

iShitBloodandCumShit

As of right now, If we punch through 7470, extremely bullish. If it stalls anywhere before 7470, proceed with extreme caution(ES futures) But going long here is probably regarded without a pullback.

ClaudesSexBot

ES doesn't seem to give a shit, bullish

eje0100

Don't worry you could be me down $100k and still holding 11 ES futures contracts....

mikeytho1

Legitimately 0 fucking clue what I was doing but I just made $13 on a ES futures contract so thats pretty cool. Gambling is fun lmao

Still_Hippo928

Type ES on robinhood's search engine, that should lead you to the S&P futures.

FatFluffyFish

ES looks ready to fly

louis-debroglie

For people who don’t understand how it works: when rallies get extended and you retail poors start making money, the memo goes out, they send people like Ed Zitron on Bloomberg, no-name “research firms” like Citrini start spreading FUD, and they shake you out at a loss while they BUY Do you really think there will be a rate hike? No chance, not with the new Fed chair sucking on Trumps nuts Have earnings gotten worse? No, they’re getting better, people can’t build fast enough, can’t keep up with demand Valuations of some companies got regarded but nobody is exiting this market Buy calls on ES while the “responsible” (lazy) fund managers rotate a little into value, then buy NQ calls when the FOMO heats up again

claytondpark

ES and NQ closed -3% & -5% Friday which are huge moves. Even if there's more selling this week it should see somewhat of a decent retracement tmrw as if it didn't it would cause retail panic...

ApathysLastKiss_

NQ down, ES up.... 🤔

LarryStink

Bought 7500/7550 ES call verticals on the low of the sunday open. Still holding the 100pt iron fly at 7425. Will close the fly tomorrow once price reaches the short strikes at 7425 for a nice 30ish % gain. 🪰 

DanqueLeChay

Time to sit down and watch my favorite show on the TV. It’s called ES and it’s so fucking well written.

FNFactChecker

Well, technically you want to mark the H/L of the first 5 min candle on ES to mark the opening range. Then trade a retest and failure to the downside or breakout and backrest to the upside. Same thing for SPY opening range in RTH

nvictas

Let's see where ES Futures will open.

Slutty4Sourdough

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZN4LC6k4ES/

LarryStink

Futures/index > etf on just about every metric. Only thing spy has over ES is you save about a few penny on fills. But the tax savings, ability to manage overnight, trade options overnight, Sundays, and span margin allowing you to hedge by  buying/selling futures against the options with minimal to no additional BP requirements make them a superior product. Beginners trade spy intermediate trade spx and pros trade ES. I Don't make the rules.

Annual-Society9945

Why don't you regard learn and trade /ES or /NQ ?

FlyTradrHQ

For ESTX50, OptionMetrics IvyDB has full strike chains with Greeks. For NDX and ES, CBOE DataShop covers daily options going back decades. ThetaData does US index options at lower cost but European coverage is limited. Watch for providers that only keep active contracts, you lose expired strikes which matters for backtesting shorter-dated stuff.

WickOfDeath

Many people said so. The drop happened anyway. 2K points on the Nasdaq100, here I would call the ES resilient because it lost only 200 points and the Russel 2000 as well.

thetradingfenix

You're identifying the leak correctly: you had a $.20 exit and didn't take it because you wanted more. That's not random bad luck, it's a pattern, and if you're running 0DTE spreads daily it'll compound fast. The hard part isn't knowing you should take profit early or set a stop — it's actually doing it when the trade is live and your brain is rationalizing one more minute. What helped me was tracking every trade where I had a valid exit but didn't take it, then reviewing the equity curve of what I actually made vs. what I would've made if I'd followed my rule. Seeing that gap in black and white made the discipline click. You need a system that forces you to log the moment you deviate and why, so you can pattern-match your own psychology. I built therisingfenix.com/journal after blowing through stops on ES spreads for the same reason — it tracks not just P&L but where you broke your own rules and reminds you of past leaks when similar setups appear. For 0DTE, the difference between a $.20 take and a multi-thousand loss is pure execution, and you can't fix execution without seeing your own patterns repeated back to you.

Mexx_G

I track NQ instead of ES, but I believe that there's still a 1000pts drop possible in that pullback. It's still very bullish. It just needed to chill a bit.

tesseramous

Where are you getting your volume? I see twice as much volume on SPY and ES.

2020isgreat

Ayyyyy ES down 3%

Strangerdanger8812

If it holds it will beat out jan 20th -2.06% well for ES

NeighborhoodDry1821

Need ES to tickle $7585 by eod

TizzyHizzy

ES holding 7460. I just need a massive pop so I can gtfo lol

MarginCalledManager

ES puts closed out... thanks for the easy $17,000 today exit liquidity regards... see ya Sunday for ES open

MarginCalledManager

new lows again... SPY and ES literally have not gone up since your "never drops below" post... good work regard... good work.

MarginCalledManager

Or, you know, just trade ES and NQ contracts and options 23 hours a day

133756

These overnight dips on Spy & ES that keep getting bought are just hedging & stop running because big money is just selling puts that they want to get assigned or collect premium. 7650 tomorrow IMO. I was right last night too.

MarginCalledManager

All you dumbasses who never trade ES and NQ options that trade 23 hours a day Sunday through Friday, and on holidays, and never had PDT requirements.

MarginCalledManager

You realize smart traders only do ES options because they trade 23 hours a day, right?

VeryMercurial

Look at the NQ daily chart you dunce. ES not yet

memmolemmo

The options do. Dunno how it works, but I use real time data on ES to track them when a great setup pops up. Since there' no MM hedging during overnight sessions there's a lot less fuckery and price follows technicals a lot closer.

Significant_Speed854

So oil down, metals down, ES down, NQ down. Hm

VeryMercurial

DOW was up 1.7%, NQ was red, ES was slightly red. cmon bro...

SprinklesSuitable457

I use PutYield for this, it sells puts on ES when the trend is up and sits in cash otherwise, so you get a consistent yield without trying to time the market. It filters out bad trades with EMAs and has a 99% expiry rate, which takes the stress out of watching your cash sit idle.

unhappyreach_

Hear me out I'm G and R but this might be the start of a nice gamma squeeze on ES

133756

Profit taking on ES Futures was more aggressive than I thought it would be & they tried to dump it again to run stops & acquire it lower. But they could barely get 20 points down from RTH high instead of the 45 they got yesterday. I think we are ripping tonight after 5PM PST.

Beginning-Fig-9089

ES and NQ have agreed to continue drilling operations into 2027, due to supply issues.

SighRamp

wow rejected off Friday high 7611.5 to the penny on /ES

Haikoe

Insanely low volume on ES today. That can mean one thing.

133756

Valid. The theta decay on 1sts really starts hitting hard overnight. When I have ES options, I want out of my 1dtes by midnight PST unless they are 2 strikes ITM & holding firm.

133756

Big resistance on ES here because we are at a squeeze level.

Poptart_Salad

ES about to go green, I guess that was it for the selling.

iShitBloodandCumShit

I’ll save the fuckin market. Shorting ES right meow and buying puts premarket. 🤌

133756

7558 is a key level for ES. We have smacked up against it from the bottom. We gotta get over it!

Midnightruined

Long ES here