ES

EmpathyFabrication

He's talking about e-mini futures ES=F aka /es it's something TA people use to divine their market proclamations

_hiddenscout

What are you even taking about with ES_F?  I see you post these almost daily into the void

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F in bearish consolidation.

Galadon17

How do you use vanna? I've been trying to make use of it with the IV curve (skew and flatten), and I've been able to calculate live vanna and charm as well. While my Gamma levels work for me now and then, I still haven't quite managed to work vanna into my edge. With Gamma for instance, it usually bounces off of my positive walls. But sometimes, price gets pinned to my wall where it stays for a bit before pushing through. Apparently its because the sign of the gamma wall flips and pushes price through, and that supposedly happens because of the IV curve flattening. But I'm still working on wrapping my head around it. Just curious if there are any videos or papers that you found particularly useful, I'm planning on digesting a few academic literature (Natenberg, Nassim and Hull to name a few) over the next few weeks to get up to speed. Right now I just trade GC and ES futures between the call and put walls while monitoring IVs, but I know I'm barely scratching the surface with it.

Vast_Ad_8414

ES 6920 smash it soon 🚀

Maleficent-Hold-5466

k enough of this ES pretending to give a fuck about the fkn KOSPI

whodey84

the second ES drops below 6850 GOOG/AAPL news break hits within a minute.

Strangerdanger8812

For the ES bois we fail here at 6850 or im fucked like butt

anonkraken

ES did close that daily gap overnight

MensRea_87

/ES trying to confirm a lower high on the longer intraday charts (30 min/2 hour). Need to get over 6800 and hold over 6800 for confirmation to the upside IMO.

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F bears held the back test yesterday and made another low.

Heineken_500ml

SPY and ES moving in opposite directions? what is this

johnlovesbigwomen

YOU FOOL! YOU SHOULD HAVE YOLO AT 637! QQQ IS OVERSOLD AND SUBJECTED TO A NICE SHORT SQUEEZE ANY TRADING DAY NOW. YOU ARE LATE TO THE PARTY! QQQ IS GOING BACK UP. I AM STICKING TO DAY TRADING. IF I WANT TO TRADE OVERNIGHT I WILL TRADE FUTURES! FUTURES REVERSAL OF OVER 200 POINTS FOR NQ AND 40 POINTS FOR ES MARKET ALREADY PREDICTING YOUR QQQ PUT SPREAD WILL BE OBLITERATED BY 9:30 AM EST OPEN! https://preview.redd.it/83u5skv94dzf1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7435860ad52cbc349b39b6019585eea81f5e8af

MensRea_87

/ES gotta get over and hold above neighborhood of 6800. Until then, this is just a bounce. But, I did call 6750ish to be the spot is was likely to start recovering from.

Maleficent-Hold-5466

ES down 0.6% and yall crying lmao

dontslambro

almost another .5% down ES futes, NQ is .61%

whodey84

Gotta break through a 'Triple Tylenol' level of 675 SPY 6800 ES 6770 SPX

nokarmawhore

https://preview.redd.it/nj41dhjnc9zf1.png?width=3214&format=png&auto=webp&s=51cba62ba345c4de6d088ee3dbbedbc13da90bdd 4HR candle back in bull flag and 4hr wavetrend fully reset. Just need ES to close today above 6843 and the party to 7000 is back on.

MensRea_87

/ES at a critical spot. If 6800 holds, then all this is is a retest of the most recent breakout area. If it fails then the breakout was a bull trap and we will be revisiting the lows of 10/10.

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F bears broke down structure and are in control.

giantfootsteps

+5 /ES long opened at 6880. Upvote to hold, downvote to close.

Beginning-Fig-9089

ES/NQ is flashing a rare signal called the Spigelian Hernia, where the insides of the market are spilling out, with no support

pineapplekiwipen

ES isn't even down a full percent we're fine probably

Content_Inspector778

ES_F broke down the bull flag.

f8worksbothways

**ES=F -0.52% overnight and falling. Zero sympathy for the bulls who wake up poor tomorrow.**

nokarmawhore

Buy the dip tomorrow. ES/SPY still in bull flag pattern and has yet to breakdown. As long as 6828 holds, remain bullish. https://preview.redd.it/m8u362m156zf1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e1a0bafbbc70f32381769a9c47d5ee1a93a1ae57

Galadon17

Just saw this and yes, charm is pretty useful towards the end of day especially for 0DTEs. Gamma and vanna exposure matter more towards start and mid day, this is for trading ES using SPX options greeks. You'll have a positive charm zone below spot (which has a bearish pressure on the underlying) and negative charm above spot (which will have a bearish pressure on the underlying). The only issue is finding accurate data for trading this. I wouldn't use spotgamma since they use OI as a stand-in for matchmaker's trades, you need to go with a provider that uses trades flow analysis or something like direct CBOE data which actually provides market participant info. I do have a working model using OI (one that I made myself for personal use) and it is fairly accurate, but I'm working towards making enough money with my current model to buy CBOE data. Not selling anything, but just stating that the easy part is building the model. The harder part is getting accurate data, since almost every so-called "GEX provider, vanna exposure provider and charm exposure provider" has different data. Great models but ultimately it boils down to how bad do you want it to be accurate. And I don't think these so-called providers really care enough to get the most accurate data, since there isn't really much of an incentive for them to do so if their current models already get them enough subscribers.

Emergency-Ticket5859

Are we short ES fam

Maleficent-Hold-5466

won $200 on a megabucks ticket😏 down $2800 on ES since 6pm 😏

WVUMD

"Geep posteng abut do booble, wa steel ned do got do ES BEE WHY seveen hudreh" https://preview.redd.it/7ctgaa0s25zf1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=70a379691bc36a8ef1a3f5321bc07e35421d7c79

nokarmawhore

https://preview.redd.it/gu0rnj3bz4zf1.png?width=3214&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd2a262510045d7e3c0993605a00975a81ed24f3 Not until ES closes under 6843. Till that happens, we are consolidating in a bull flag pattern for another breakout to 7000

eireniconic

meh, just bought an long ES contract for a trade. green by midnight.

orangeyougladiator

ES just went red. NQ diving too. VIX not giving up. Feels like a red day.

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F bounced off strong resistance.

WarmCalligrapher3006

lolz .. late night haters downvoting faster that i can type .. i posted a photo, it's like static tiktok ... xDD solid advice in the thread # Wu-Tang Clan - C.R.E.A.M. (Official HD Video) is of circumstance .. no shit, i broke the code, whats up with the hate? ... check that stupid photo i posted .. version 2 was fine, then move in a VIX /ES composite, but i fkd it up ... version 4 kicks ass with a Hermès shoe

spyputs1

Idk I’m seeing an inverse head and shoulder on ES

CMDR_Shepard96

Is everyone going wild over ES being 0.1% green? I'm confused

stupidber

Here's a link for all the retards that don't know where to see futes- [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/?guccounter=1](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ)

optimaleverage

This has been the /ES pattern lately: new ath overnight or near RTH open in the pre... Initial rush of FOMO call buying at open into a healthy pruning by about 10:30 est selling the top to eventually retest the session low and reap that call premium for market makers. Bounce/chop inside daily range out the rest of the session. Ezpz watch.

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F bull flag forming.

seamonkey31

Most of these my recs are focused on S&P and Nasdaq, and I don't often look for individual stocks to trade trade brigade is my favorite. Focus on ES, NQ, RTY with MAG7 names. Also discusses any exceptional names to trade, but usually S&P type companies, no penny or meme stocks. The host is a bit nerdy with a michael scott vibe, so IDK if it works for everyone. He has made incredible predictions, but still only right \~30% of the time TopstepTV and NinjaTrader TV focuses on futures and overall market via indexes. Chart Guys is similar to Trade Brigade. SPY and Mag7 with occasional focus on outperformers, but different vibe, a "millenial mix"-vibe. Trader Tom has okay stuff sometimes. jimdaltontrading is an OG with very little content, but I still watch his weekly videos because how many people reference him. Options Millionaire is okay, but he does his show during market hours and its a bit light on information/explaining, but he is entertaining. TraderTV is also okay. Analysis and screening stocks during market hours less focus on indexes. Pretty light on info, but it might suit certain people. Also worth mentioning al brooks has a paid trading room. Purely focused on price action on ES if that is what you are looking for. I don't like listening to people talking while I am trading, but probably could help someone I can't stand watching people that push monetization or "get rich quick" type stuff

MensRea_87

/ES. 6905 ain't *that* serious. WTF you doing?

brucekeller

maybe if it actually breaches that base that /ES and /NQ formed basically all night

MensRea_87

Would try it around /ES 6930 mark. If that fails, try again at /ES 6955. But that's a dangerous play because if we get to those levels the market will want to make a new high. Lot of stops gonna trigger at open for people who went short into the close.

MensRea_87

Do not appreciate what the early morning crew is doing right now on /ES.

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F resistance getting accepted.

Wisertrader

I only trade futures options, and more specifically options on commodities, no ES! there was no bull market there! Its all over the place. I exit everything before April 2nd as tariffs have direct impact on commodity prices, I also haven’t traded in October due to the US/China negotiations which have a major affect on commodities as well but everything turned out to be okay for now

MensRea_87

That's what I called earlier when SPY leaked down into no mans land EOD. That was the signal to everybody we were going to gap down. Only to reverse off earnings. Just need the overnight crew for /ES to not fumble in the red zone of ATH's.

MensRea_87

Assuming the /ES crowd doesn't do anything ill advised, the short squeeze on the table tomorrow gonna send us to ATH's no cap.

dontslambro

Oh pls Tim, save my ES futes, with an absolute ripper

TrickyDickCheney

ES futures will likely fill the gap with earnings and will probably start going up again

TrickyDickCheney

Spx at least going to gap fill on the futures before it goes back up. ES futures never leave a gap

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F chopping

Maleficent-Hold-5466

i got that limit sell ES 6999 bring me to valhalla or dantes69th hell or w/e tank the fkn market once im short is what im saying

aaron-roger

jesus christ man we're at the point here where its upvoted that you can't buy ES calls at 9pm ET. like. wow. you guys are really setting new records of retardation.

Striking-Arrival1206

ES options trading 23 hours a day

aaron-roger

i am long ES, +$2700 since 6pm

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F bull flagging

Silent_Fault2969

Micro dips gets bought as ES_F continues to run from it's breakout.

Atlantis_Island

[this is definitely the top](https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2016/07/21/Photos/NS/MW-ES129_top_20160721110302_NS.png?uuid=3846c1ac-4f54-11e6-9f44-0015c588dfa6)

iH8thisworldandyou

Does that apply to /ES as well?

uhhhhhhhhhhhyeah

We got a Lexus ES 300H new for 42k last year. Strange.

MensRea_87

OK /ES. Do your thing and keep on futing. Reward my stupidity by allowing my accidental call buys EOD yesterday to print. LOL

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F continues to be parabolic.

wenxuan2

Use trading view on NQ/ES or US100/500, never freezes

trade_thriving

I'm really impressed by your consistency, Eli. That 12/12 win rate with a 2.47 Sharpe is phenomenal - I've been selling premium for about 5 years now and I know how challenging 2025 has been with all the volatility whipsaws. I'm particularly curious about your position sizing methodology. When you say 5.6% premium collected of capital, are you referring to notional premium or do you calculate it differently for futures? I've been experimenting with similar approaches on /ES and /NQ but I've struggled with the capital efficiency aspect since futures margins can be so variable. Your 50% stop loss discipline is something I really respect. I've gotten burned a few times this year holding positions too long hoping for theta decay to save me. That April and October pause is interesting too - I'm guessing you stepped aside during some of the choppier periods? I've been trying to develop better market regime filters myself. One thing I'd love to hear more about is how you handle overnight gamma risk, especially on the short puts. I've noticed futures can gap pretty aggressively and I'm always paranoid about getting blown out on a Sunday night open.

MidwayTrades

No, futures are a different beast. European style options tend to be on things like direct indicies with no underlying shares like SPX, which ai trade a ton vs SPY which is an ETF with shares and so is American style and settled in shares. Just to stick with the S&P, the futures for that is /ES. I originally brought up range bound strategies because you were looking for ways to trade 0DTE on a day like today where it gap opens a lot then just stays near that open. That’s exactly where a range bound strategy would thrive. Had you done 0DTE relatively narrow (cheap) butterfly shortly after the open, you could have made 30-50% pretty quickly and been out, especially a butterfly as it has more theta decay near the middle.

Maleficent-Hold-5466

just shorted ES yall out over your skis 40-60 pts

No_Art_2787

No free lunch. Margin is typically 2x. VS 3x funds. The interest you pay on it is pretty much the "time decay". But margin can be seen as a better tool because you can scale out/close out the margin, and let your actual capital ride. VS in a leveraged ETF you need to close the full trade and go to the original stock, which *could* hurt you tax wise. So its just another tool. Wouldn't say margin VS leverage ETF is safer/better. Its like saying whats better, Options on Spy, SPX or /ES?? Dollar per delta its going to be the same. But the advantage is tax and fee's.

Sensitive_Pilot3689

Closed my ES strangles last week. Would have been rekt now. Thank Lord Krishna for seeing the future. Shalom and Happy Halloween 👻

GotBannedAgain_2

From the opening high Sunday night till right now, ES moved about 14 points. 14 FUCKING POINTS for almost 19 hours! What the fuck?! Paint dries faster than this shit. 🤡

Silent_Fault2969

Parabolic conditions on ES_F.

stupidber

For all the retards that don't know where to see futes [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ)

Maleficent-Hold-5466

lord jesus bless us with some stupid headline to cause a retest of previous ATH ES 6808

Dumbest-Questions

If you mean the C2 attributed trades data, it's nice (we buy the raw version, it's not _that_ expensive for an institutional team) but still very ambiguous. Here is just a few sources of uncertainty (a) The SPX vol complex includes SPX options, SPY options (and other S&P500 ETFs), ES futures options, VIX futures/options and a fair amount of OTC flow. (b) These days, majority of S&P delta-neutral inventory does not reside in the market maker books, but rather is dispersed through the volatility arbitrage community. A lot of the time it's hard to say if a particular trade is going to be managed neutral or outright just by participant denomination. (c) COB is _not_ properly accounted for in the C2 dataset. Unless your provider has a very good methodology to deal with COB trades, you are leaving a lot of flow off the roster. The point is that even with this data _and_ all kinds of other sources (we have like 6 different approaches to triangulate delta hedged positioning in real time and it's still frequently wrong), it's still very much a shot in the dark. Even OMMs themselves struggle with that.

MasterSexyBunnyLord

This cannot be done even with a traditional product that delivers shares. You can lock in a profit but not a loss. If we use SPY as a stand-in, if you have a profit on a call or a put you can short or long the shares respectively to lock in the gains and then wait for exercise to flatten out the position in lieu of closing the options when liquidity is a concern. Even then, the position is technically not closed until the equivalent put/call aren't sold at a matching strike to the long call/put. The opposite cannot be achieved because the options are expiring worthless. If you short shares or an ES contract it's mostly a new position and not a hedge. So if I own an SPX call at strike x and ATM is x-$60 shorting ES really opens up $60 of risk on the upside hence a new risk hence a new position. ES needs to be closed manually too on expiration because the SPX call protection from the short of ES is gone

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F bulls' task is to hold the breakout.

Proteinshake4

Eversource. ES. Should have bought when it was 55 though. Total monopoly on electric power.

ramoizain

This sounds more or less like the basic mechanical strategy that Tom Sosnoff espouses. He also suggests risking only 5% of your account in any one trade. I’ve been trying to hone this strategy too, somewhat. It’s been profitable for me mostly, but I’m using smaller positions. I’ve been mostly trading futures too (including /ES), since I can do it in the evening. I’m still not quite as good at the 21 day management aspect as I want to be, but I’m getting comfortable taking 50-60% as a norm, instead of trying to maximize every trade, which has helped me get consistent with wins. I’m not sure that I agree that the catch is the bull market, as one commenter suggested. I think you could be profitable in any direction market, if your focus is to collect premium during high IV moments. The direction the market is moving matters less if you’re managing your position well, which it sounds like you are. I’m still new to do this type of strategy, but I don’t think it’s too good to be true. There is still significant risk involved, and you have to be pretty active with your positions. It’s just that you are using higher probabilities to your advantage.

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F bulls in control as long as breakout holds.

Outrageous-Lab2721

Unbreakable level on the ES. Multiple failures.

Parunreborn

NQ is ES with adhd

Parunreborn

Once you discover ES you will never watch SPY ever again

tradesniperrr

It’s good for ES/NQ Futures

B2BContinuum

/ES has date with 6766 later today - do what you want with this info ...

MensRea_87

If you buy at the open you're most likely gonna get smoked. If this is a genuine breakout, a great setup for long positions is /ES6800. Ignore the noise and just look at technicals. they're right more often than they're wrong. Why? Market psychology.

aaron-roger

bra switch to ES for the screeny so ppl dont know ur poor

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F continues to pay. Just keep holding runners.

NonsensicalWorries

ES is up .2

ReconnaisX

Play it safe. The magnitude of that last red bar tells me you have a lot of risk tolerance-- maybe too much. Did something similar with ES futes earlier this year. Went from +160k to -30 after holding onto two bad trades way too long. I'm back up now, but I'm playing with much smaller numbers this time around.

ImportantProofAcadia

/ES Futures aren’t exactly one company, I feel like it is more amenable to statistical analysis because it aggregates quite a few of them, although the trend following is awesome more based on analysis of sentiment day-to-day. I don’t think anyone can be right 100% of the time though but it’s good to qualify things.

Vast_Ad_8414

/ES 7000

GotBannedAgain_2

We r less than 40 ES points away from making new ATH. We r definitely blasting off tomorrow.

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F working up the range after bears failed in defending the back test.

MidwayTrades

/ES is another option if you are comfortable with futures. Most brokers have it.

Silent_Fault2969

After ES_F broke down the flag and sold, it set a bear trap. Bulls are not safe yet until they recover the flag.

PapaCharlie9

Delayed quotes can be up to 20 minutes in arrears. That can be an eternity if news hits markets. The 100 point discrepancy could be explained entirely by not comparing real-time to real-time. SPX options vs. /ES are more tightly coupled by design. GLD and /GC are more loosely coupled. The market makers making a market for SPX options use /ES pricing to guide their pricing of SPX options, in order to avoid an arbitrage. That is not the case for market making on GLD options, since options only have to track the spot price of shares. Also, SPX and /ES are valued to a common asset (sort of, SET being not quite SPX at a given moment in time), while GLD and /GC are at one remove, since GLD options deliver shares while /GC delivers cash in lieu of spot gold. As I mentioned before, the ETF has tracking error due to fund management overhead. /GC on expiration day will track spot to the penny, but an ETF doesn't have to do that. How could it? Gold trades 24 hours a day, but ETF shares only trade 6.5 hours a day.

Silent_Fault2969

ES_F is flagging for large move soon.

Mobile_Wishbone643

Gibson ES-335 or a Martin D-28… which one should I get

Chance-Screen3602

Sorry, 100% options n00b here and am coming up with more questions than answers the more I dive into this. But AFAIK, I was comparing the current price of GLD from a delayed feed on [Barchart.com](http://Barchart.com) (378) to the current price of GCZ5 (4120) which is what I believed should track tightly but clearly I'm either doing it wrong of the market is out of whack. I have a Gexbot-type indicator that tracks SPY vs ES and that correlation is tight and was hoping I could figure out where the strikes were on GC (because yes, I'm trying to import SPX vs. /ES GEX techniques to GLD and /GC). But I see now that there are options on Futures available for GC...but why wouldn't the ETF be used for Gold Futures as well? And couldn't a volume/ strike indicator be cobbled together for GC?