FDX

the_Q_spice

For some stocks yes, for others: no. Biggest one for me that is getting a boost is the shipping sector, which has honestly been beaten to a pulp by the last year. Basically, the gains everything else is seeing have been synonymous to the shipping industry tanking. The funny thing is; the shipping industry is making a *killing* on tariffs due to rate hikes and brokerage fees. More than that; companies like FDX and UPS are multinational - but the market prices them as if they are domestic-only, which misses probably around 75% of their actual markets, and leaves analysts confused AF as to how they keep beating projections.

the_Q_spice

To your first example of Google and AI: *Always* remember that everyone thought Docusign, Fax, and email would kill FedEx. Instead, it made FedEx’s services of overnight and time-critical delivery more necessary than ever. There is still reasonable doubt in electronic communication. There is almost *none* in consigned shipment and delivery. Fax can and does fail, power outages and grid failures happen. None of that inherently stops aircraft from flying or landing, or FedEx from running the fleet out with old signature reference sheets to collect signatures with ink and pen. FWIW; work at FDX and was a courier last year when our network went down nation-wide. We reverted to said method of requiring everyone to sign in ink for receipt of their delivery. Same thing can be said of Google and AI. If AI craps out - Google is still there. Hell, the AI is likely *using* Google for training data or parts of its searches. Remove Google, and the entire house of cards comes crashing down.

the_Q_spice

UPS and FDX could go absolutely nuts depending on the timing. Current events impacting both that could end up happening near simultaneously: SCOTUS tariff ruling, if the tariffs are stricken, this means huge increases in shipping volumes. FDX is spinning off Freight into FDXF… *in June*. This coincides with the SCOTUS schedule. Both FDX and UPS are expecting the FAA to return the MD-11 to service in Q1-Q2, likely based on how the crash investigation is proceeding. That will be a 10-15% boost to their air fleets and could end up timed simultaneously to both the SCOTUS ruling and FDXF spinoff. The MD-11 grounding and tariffs are fundamentally what has hammered UPS down from >$200/share to now hovering around $100/share. If the tariffs are repealed and the MDs return to service at the same time, we could see a 100% rally in value for UPS simply as it returns to its normal trading position. Prospective increases due to trade increasing are expected to lead to between a 30-40% rally across the shipping sector as well, and the FDXF spinoff will come with a distribution of shares to existing shareholders (basically, you could get free shares timed right at an increase of 30-40% across both FDX and FDXF). TLDR: tariffs end = trade increases = significant shipping sector rallies.

explorer_soul99

Good technical read on UPS. Let me add fundamental context: UPS vs FDX Comparison: | Metric | UPS | FDX | |--------|-----|-----| | Price | $101.02 | $293.13 | | % Above 52wk Low | 22.33% | Mid-range | | Gross Margin | 18.77% | 21.60% | | Op Margin | 9.56% | 6.92% | | P/E | 14.94 | 17.28 | UPS actually has BETTER operating margin than FDX (9.56% vs 6.92%) but trades at a lower P/E (14.94 vs 17.28). That's the setup you want. Margin Trend Check (8 quarters): FDX margins bouncing around: 20.28% → 26.42% → 21.10% (volatile) Need to pull UPS specific margin data, but the P/E discount to FDX is notable. The Risk: At 22% above 52-week low, some of the tax-loss selling reversal may already be priced in. Compare to TTD (5% above low) or ADBE (7% above low) - those are closer to max pain. If earnings beat in Feb, UPS breaks through the 50-week MA you mentioned. Miss = retest $82. The lower P/E vs FDX gives margin of safety, but it's not a "sitting at the bottom" play like some others.

the_Q_spice

Both FDX and UPS also do LTL, and significant amounts of it in quite a few different markets. FedEx for instance has: [Freight](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/shipping/freight/ltl.html) [Express Freight](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/shipping/freight/air-freight/freight-1-3-business-day.html) - LTL freight via air And [Custom Critical](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/custom-critical.html#whatis) Huge note, Freight is being spun off and intending a separate IPO (just filed their Form 10) this year on the NYSE under FDXF with around $20B in FDXF shares distributed to existing FDX shareholders. https://investors.fedex.com/news-and-events/investor-news/investor-news-details/2025/FedEx-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-Earnings-Growth-Year-Over-Year/ When it is spin-off, it will become the largest publicly traded LTL in the US ($8.9B in revenue, next highest being ODFL at $5.8B, and XPO after that at $4.9B). To be clear; this isn’t a rumor, it’s happening May 31.

Kaner16

While I agree FDX and UPS look undervalued, I wouldn't say mining, datacenters, energy projects, etc are really relevant to these companies. Parcel and LTL carriers operate in a different segment of the industry. The projects you mentioned will likely be handled by truckload carriers.

the_Q_spice

3 main ones for me are FDX UPS and LUNR LUNR - because of acquiring both [KinetX](https://www.kinetx.com/missions) and [Lanteris](https://lanterisspace.com/about-us/history) and announcing a pivot into the defense and satellite industry. FDX and UPS - somewhat boring, but all the stuff for new datacenters, prospective mining, and power plant and energy projects has to be transported by *someone*. Both are pretty undervalued right now. I don’t see either moonshotting, but they’re good long term investments.

the_Q_spice

Most folks like UPS and FedEx can’t really use them at all. A lot of sort facilities are either on or near airports. Unless the FAA feels like shutting down portions of fully controlled airspace for drone corridors, flying tens of thousands of drones (would be needed even for the smallest of locations) per day to and from an airport is pure science fiction. Otherwise, you are going to need to buy thousands of drone trucks and similar thousands of shuttle trucks to carry freight to the drones, in addition to having our normal delivery trucks and flights. Delivery drones are a gimmick. Source: work at FDX, the only drones I have heard of us looking at are ones for flying to remote islands with pilot-less aircraft to avoid ETOPs requirements.

the_Q_spice

Honestly, fuel is factored into every shipping company’s prices. Profits don’t really change because we just raise or lower fuel surcharges as that market changes. We don’t really use the surcharges to increase profit, just to limit losses. These are updated weekly (which is why shipping prices can seem so volatile sometimes) and are [published on our websites](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/shipping/fuel-surcharge.html), broken down by service type. Just my $0.02 as a FDX employee. Both us and UPS have been trying to reduce fuel expenses, but mainly in the aviation sector by transitioning to sustainable aviation fuels and better flight routing. For example, in FY24 (2 years ago), we saved more than 130 *million* gallons of fuel, saving about $400M that year. But, again, most of those savings are from our airplanes and have more to do with retiring less efficient aircraft and acquiring more efficient ones or using more efficient fuels.

the_Q_spice

Personally; I’m buying a lot in the shipping market (UPS and FDX). Things always need to move from point A to point B, and literally no one is at the point of being peer competition to either UPS or FDX. Case in point being last year. FDX grew a ton and increased their operating income as well as yield per package; even in the face of tariffs and having 10% of their air fleet grounded right before the peak season. Despite UPS being down almost 40%, both their profit margin and operating income increased as well; again, in the face of what should have been a catastrophic year for shipping companies. Their last earnings report caused a 16% rebound in value, their next is due in a few weeks and could very easily be similar. Basically, expect them to return to their 10-year average throughout this year, pretty safe bet at a 20-30% gain.

the_Q_spice

Honestly, I only have a bit of stock popular here. Most of my portfolio is much more conservative picks like ALL, UPS, and FDX.

Unlucky_Mission_1444

NVO (first to fda approved oral semaglutide and already a beat up share price) NBIS (one of the "safer" high-risk high reward ai infrastructure plays with assets and income not directly related to data center play to lessen some of risk) AMZN (both ai and robotics growth without overleveraging) META (oversold money printer moving away from underperformed segments) GOOG (just a monster of the modern world whose PE hasn't hyper inflated to the degree many ai companies have despite continued growth and the resources to actually end up successfully achieving their goals) INTC (I just expect more movement towards intel as a hedge against China aggression towards taiwan) SOFI (great growth AND a high quality customer base should make SOFI look appealing compared to some of its higher risk peers in the year ahead as the K shaped economy intensifies) UUUU (has had success at creating some high quality rare earths donestically) FDX (based on market caps of competing LTLs like old dominion, the freight spinoff should create a lot of value if you get in before if it doesn't run up too much)

PastafarianSasquatch

Been holding FDX since i worked there in the early 2000s. I don't work there anymore, but the stock options were nice. Might pick up some UPS, but unions have been getting shit on lately. Hope that changes soon. Solid advice tho.

the_Q_spice

UPS, FDX, and holding for those sweet dividends. Both are pretty undervalued if anything right now too. A lot of folks day trading don’t understand that logistics shares are very long positions. Shorter positions on logistics are really dumb moves. Too many people value logistics on tabloid stories when most revenue is already decided and set in stone the previous year.

-medicalthrowaway-

Literally retarded for not playing the correction on FDX 👍

Ok-Camel-9627

Wow FDX fuck you, my straddle failed

JJdante

MMs seem determined to keep FDX crab walking, at least in the premarket, to fuck everybody over.

JJdante

Let's go FDX, let's go NKE

AlpacaDream7

!banbet FDX 300 1d

callsonreddit

Gimme FDX -20%

6hchill

so fucking flat NKE and FDX

creemeeseason

Trucking tender rejections up to 12%....HTLD a few days from a golden cross....FDX reporting after hours today. Good setup.

Downtown-Raisin8724

Nike, FDX🚀🚀

ValuableBrilliant483

Puts on FDX?

Wisesize

Whelp, I was gonna get some FDX options before close tomorrow, so I guess I'll check in the afternoon.

Twerking4Rent

$FDX?

Gristle__McThornbody

Kelly is such a fn sloot. Her timeline is a huge red flag. The FDX plane plummet on Christmas Eve, and everyone assumes Chuck is fish food. Then, somehow, in the span of four short years, she manages to grieve, heal, date, fall madly in love with a the dentist, marry the guy, pop out some kids, all before Chuck shows up at her door. Four years. That’s not processing trauma, the math aint mathing bitch. What happened was the sloot went straight to the streets. Probably had the dentist on speed dial too. But in the end Tom Hanks wins. He walks away with the greatest pickup line in human history, “I survived four years alone on a desert island” that's a story that will slay any woman he comes across. That country girl at the crossroads with the angel winged truck? She didn’t stand a chance. In the end, the real lesson is to never trust women.

surfinbird

Best ER to gamble on this week? MU? NKE? FDX? CCL?

eskhalaf

**Week of 12/19 Market News and Data** **Hello WSB members, this week is a hot week regarding news and data we have CPI data on Thursday. Some few companies are reporting this week. All eyes on $MU and $FDX Tuesday 12/16: - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov) - Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) - Unemployment Rate (Nov) - Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) - S&P Global Manufacturing (Dec) Wednesday 12/17: - Crude Oil Inventories Thursday 12/18: - CPI (MoM) & (YoY) (Nov) - Core CPI (MoM) & (YoY) (Nov) - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) - Initial Jobless Claims Friday 12/19: - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) & (MoM) (Oct) - Existing Home Sales (Nov) Have a great week everyone**

culturefan

Generally already established companies, unlike growth stocks, Value stocks are generally publicly traded companies trading at cheap valuations relative to their earnings and long-term growth potential. You might think of companies like Target, Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Berkshire Hathaway, etc. Most stocks are classified as either value stocks or growth stocks. Generally, a value stock trades for a lower price than its financial performance and fundamentals suggest it's worth. A growth stock is a company expected to deliver above-average growth compared to its industry peers or the overall stock market. Value stocks generally have the following characteristics: They are typically mature businesses. They have steady (but not spectacular) growth rates. They report relatively stable revenues and earnings. Most pay dividends, although this isn't a set-in-stone rule. Some stocks easily fit into one category or the other. For example, package delivery giant FedEx (FDX -0.15%) is clearly a value stock that's fallen out of favor with Wall Street due to some short-term challenges. Conversely, fast-moving Tesla (TSLA +2.57%) is an obvious example of a growth stock.

eskhalaf

https://preview.redd.it/6ecewp9pdu6g1.jpeg?width=736&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03fd494d1c09f218f6f84ef1c7b7322fdee3f5b4 MU & FDX 🔥

PracticalAnywhere225

anyone keeping an eye on FDX, looks like a sleeper run. Whats the DD?

Chrg88

Amazon is heavily dependent on FDX UPS and the postal service

Money_Do_2

Hood was my best play Worst play was buying HOOD shares and not LEAPS. Also missing a FDX call that was a 60 bagger, the setup was there but i doubted TA in general - still do but it would have hit big. Biggest loss was not closing a put spread over $1 (it was 50% and i try to be mechanical) and watching it fall to a max loss.

Relative-Swim263

FDX calls been printing non stop

Far-Requirement9180

FDX 275c weeklies were 30x baggers today. Why nobody told me to buy it ? Lol

KarBear2021

FDX went up nicely today.

CaptainChris1990

Ordered a package Friday...FedEx estimated it would arrive Tuesday afternoon. I'm leaving tomorrow for a week and it's perishable. Got the package this morning. Calls on $FDX

surmoiFire

put on FDX, UPS

greenpride32

From a data perspective, most "bubblers"are referring to Shiller/CAPE index which is the long term PE ratio of the SP500, and it currently does sit near all time highs. The "AI narrative" is because the largest weights in said SP500 are heavily invested in the area. The entire circular money argument is nonsense. When company A exchanges an asset of value (cash, equity) to company B for a good or service, that is a legitimate economic transaction. If B then transacts with A, that's an entirely separate activity. Nobody is giving away anything for free. What's different if A goes to B and and B goes to A, versus A goes to B and B goes to C? It just means C got a win over A - not that this is "real" and other was "fake". Let's suppose AMZN contracts out to UPS to help with package delivery. And then separately, UPS decides to use AMZN AWS to host their web service and compute infrastructure. Is this fake/circular money? I'm fairly certain most will agree it is not. UPS could have instead gone to MSFT Azure to get another party involved. So it's not different than my prior A/B/C examples. Nothing unusual or out of the ordinary. AI "loop" is simply because a) big tech are the ones driving AI buildout b) big tech has the funds to do so c) AI/GPU hyperscaler is just the next interation of CPU/cloud hyperscaler. Makes perfect sense to me, just as AMZN can go to UPS and FDX for delivery. They aren't going to UBER or LFYT or COKE (distributor for KO). It's called synergy - it can be both inter-business or intra-business.

sayonara49

Cargo only but UPS and FDX still fly em often

NoMorning5015

I just got an offer from FDX for an odd lot tender. it seems like a really bad deal!

sylphvanas

$FDX and $O calls

sylphvanas

$O and $FDX calls

sylphvanas

FDX calls

Live_Classroom_955

**My Trade Details:** * Ticker: NKE * Strike Price & Expiration: $75 10/3/25 * Premium: $1.74 * Total Market Value: $3k **Rationale for Trade:** *Upcoming Earnings Report:* In recent months Nike has been stagnant around the mid $70s. Based on options trading movements, people are anticipating a significant swing, I'm guessing around 8-10%. Last quarter, Nike beat Q4 earnings expectations and soared 15% in one day. Another solid earnings beat could spark a big rally here. *News Catalysts:* RBC Capital just upgraded Nike to "outperform" on September 18, for several reasons. [See Here](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/nike-stock-rating-upgraded-by-rbc-capital-to-outperform-on-product-improvements-93CH-4243907). Additionally, Nike's management has been focusing on a turnaround and last quarter's results hinted that the sales slump could be bottoming out. [See Here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/nike-s-sales-beat-signals-the-sportswear-maker-s-slump-is-easing?embedded-checkout=true). *Technical Setup:* From a technical perspective, Nike's stock appears to be primed for a rebound. In the last year its down >10%. According to momentum indicators the stock is oversold: Nike's 14-day RSI is \~21 (well below typical threshold of 30). [See Here](https://stockinvest.us/stock/NKE#:~:text=Nike%20is%20oversold%20on%20RSI14,which%20increases%20the%20general%20risk). The downside is pretty limited here as a bad earnings report wouldn't drive down the price too much, but a good one could surge it. If it's positive news, Nike could easily rally to \~75+. *Options Market Signals:* The current options pricing shows high implied volatility, right ahead of earnings (45% IV versus \~21% realized volatility). [See Here](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/NKE/expected-move#:~:text=Latest%C2%A0Earnings%3A%20Earnings%3A%2009%2F30%2F25%20). While options contracts may be slightly overpriced, it also shows there might be a significant movement coming up. **Probability & Risk/Reward Profile:** *Profit Probability:* With the current delta of the contract, it's between 30-40% chance to profit but with the potential gains really high. Historically, when Nike beats expectations, the stocks upside tends to move much larger than the drops are on misses. *Risk/Reward:* If Nike's volatility crush is smaller than implied, or the news is disappointing, the calls could expire out of the money. However, the potential reward is multiples of the risk. If Nike rallys to >$80, it could be a +400% return. This is a completely asymmetrical payoff, we're risking a little to make a lot. (\~1:3 risk to reward ratio). Even factoring in the odds of success aren't above 50%, the EV is most likely strongly positive. PS: I made the same style research, risk profile and bet on FDX call options (FDX CALL $230 9/19 when FDX was @ $225) and that just soared after the 9/18 earnings report. DM for proof.

Ballislife1313

What do you think about FDX?

Swimming_Ad5902

I like FDX and am long but you didn’t mention anything in your DD about tariffs?!?!

907cconnak

Is anyone bag holding FDX lmao couldn't be me

duddnddkslsep

Got fucked by penny stocks, FDX puts, and LEN calls all in one day Is OKLO next?

Vasher14

9/26 212.5 put FDX am I completely cooked?

Tocharian

Took an L on both RIVN calls and FDX puts. Great start to the day!

WSB-Rizzler

Oh well on FDX calls, I rolled to a month out because options became cheap

duddnddkslsep

holding a 0DTE on FDX and hoping it nosedives is so cancer

duddnddkslsep

FDX opening flat really saved my life

AdPurple4902

Literally called this yesterday lmao FDX didn’t hold AT ALL. Watch it go red

eskhalaf

FDX made the fuck your calls fuck your puts move

dopeadult

never trade FDX options, remember this

IndependentAd3410

FDX, the whole market, or yes 

RedStag1905

FDX giving back the whole earnings pop, back to baseline, destroying both puts and calls alike

Quadsradamus

lol @FDX fade

RandyTomfoolery

FDX needs to dump bigly

Imprezeda

God damn it FDX I wanted 10% movement not this 5% bullshit

illegaltaco420

So FDX puts were not the move

RandyTomfoolery

Literally first time I have ever bought puts, I did on FDX, fml

NotGucci

FDX with a nice beat.

NotGucci

Very well said. People are upset they missed the bottom not only covid bottom, 2022 bottom but also tariff bottom. Everyday we just see people posting negative post and why market should revert. Instead we don't talk about how poorly economic data is collected through survyes. Earnings are still beating look at FDX today, semi remain strong. Tech is strong in general. Unemployment remains at record lows.

Gristle__McThornbody

These FDX 247 calls are cooked.

Rare-ish_Birb

Shhhh.....FDX call is starting soon....

StocksStormTrooper

I suspect FDX gonna run out of steam and by eod tomorrow or Monday it’s gonna go red, guidance doesn’t impress anybody

Gristle__McThornbody

FDX you piece of shit stay up there.

softboiledjadepotato

Algo sympathy on FDX earnings, but already giving it up

RandyTomfoolery

What a load of shit FDX is

duddnddkslsep

what the fuck is happening with FDX which one of you dumped AH

HistoricalComeBack

FDX fucks me again… can’t get two correct in a row… fuck… Hope it goes back to flat at least

TheoryInttro

I don't trust this FDX move. Weak guidance and the call upcoming.

No-Improvement3164

FDX earnings

Otterpoopie

#Imagine not buying FDX calls. LMAO 🤌

FUBOSOFI

Wow FDX is really pumping off beating some low estimates when de minimis just ended which should absolutely destroy their future outlook. Typical.

applerascal

everyone that got puts on FDX shoulda been betting on SCHL, Drump fucking with federal funds = less books for kids

isospeedrix

Well rip my FDX puts

Winter_Economics_278

sold $190 FDX put for $400.. happy to buy it there...premiums were too high to buy calls.. also sold $125 LEN put for $500, happy to buy if I get assigned

AdPurple4902

I bet FDX won’t hold

GargantuasGoose

FDX beats estimates but outlook is neutral/cautious. Lets see if this holds

fast412

Wow the market got FDX and SCHL wrong. The P/C ratio had them both wrong. I bailed on FDX because premiums were too high and SCHL I couldn't wrap my head around why that company still existed and there were so many calls lol. I've never been so glad to be sitting on the sidelines on those two plays. I would have lit a whole bunch of money on fire today.

Otterpoopie

You might as well go to $250 FDX. When ur there tho, keep going to $300 LMAO

AAPLx4

Almost bought puts on FDX because of WSB sentiment 🤬

StocksStormTrooper

MM is fake pumping FDX .🤣

907cconnak

FDX price isn't gonna hold into tomorrow huh hahahaha D;

echevierra

is FDX going to be flat?

OrangeExtra5306

did FDX beat?

Otterpoopie

Need FDX to pump another 10%. TYFYATTM

StocksStormTrooper

FDX will give us added picture of the economy

Boostyosh1tup

$FDX flat

907cconnak

I inversed the inverse of my inverse on FDX, wish me luck

907cconnak

I inversed the inverse of my inverse on FDX, wish me luck

bullfromthesea

FDX should announce they are exiting delivery business and turning all hubs into data centers for AI. Trillion dollar company by Monday

Jbball9269

May as well throw that last 7k on ITM FDX puts

RaikouVsHaiku

!banbet FDX -20% 1d

Imprezeda

!banbet FDX +6% 1D