Reddit Posts
I called the FDX miss, who got rich this morning?
Why is Chewy stock so low. Will it boom soon?
Give me a good reason to play $FDX earnings today
Earnings play: writing naked 9/22 puts on FDX at $230 strike (2x expected move) for.75/contract.
$FDX - FedEx being sued for "the biggest odometer fraud scheme in history"
Highly considering this iron condor into FDX on Tuesday ahead of earnings.
The Wild $AMZN Ride - How I Bagged $12K in Profits While Y'all Apes Struggled
Insider Trading Weekly Update #034: Kimbal Musk Sells ~$20M in Tesla, 4 Apple Execs Cash Out $41.3M | Insider Trading Recap
Technical Trade Radar: April 10 - 14 (FDX, GIS, ICE, ORCL, CAH, LLY, PEP)
A summary of the recent advances and developments of Fobi (A little DD) a leading AI and data intelligence company that provides businesses with real-time applications to digitally transform and future-proof their organizations
5 stocks to watch on Friday: FedEx, Nvidia and more (NYSE:FDX)
(FedEx stock flies higher as cost-saving efforts promote strong profits (NYSE:FDX)
ETFs to Watch: Earnings from ADBE and FDX; Treasury ETFs look to CPI data
Expected moves: SPY, XLF, KRE, TLT, and Earnings from Adobe and FedEx
Insider Trading Weekly Update #021: Execs Dump $ADP, $NVCR, $AZO, $DDOG; Largest Trades + Sector and Market Cap Overviews From The Past Week
Markets gain on strong Nike earnings and increased consumer confidence data
Indexes being carried by NKE (+13.4%) and FDX (+5%) today - Increased consumer confidence data
FedEx (FDX) being thought of as a bellwether for the U.S. economy, is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, (12/20) after market close. Will it beat earnings estimates? Do you think FDX will trade higher on Wednesday (12/21) market open than its closing price on Tuesday (12/20)?
2022-11-22 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-11-21 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
$FDX Bearish action, expecting lower moves
$FDX looking like it’s going to run pretty hard. Buybacks already started.
1000 into this idea day before the close $FDX best I’ve ever seen #options
Woohoo FDX crash and burn baby crash and burn
Woohoo FDX crash and burn baby crash and burn
FedEx: Is it OK for corporate leaders to crash the market openly?
Anyone made 1.2M% gain in FDX 165 put today?
It's suicide to raise rates by 1.0 and here's why.
Thanks to "Operation Fly Formula" $FDX EARNINGS SHALL BE JUICY. Today Marks The 23rd Operation Fly Formula…Great Dip Buy IMO…No?
Notable Friday Option Activity: FDX, META, HD
Thanks to "Operation Fly Formula" $FDX EARNINGS SHALL BE JUICY. Today Marks The 23rd Operation Fly Formula
Can we all agree gain porn without immediate proof of trades should incur a punishment?
Jim Cramer predicted that FedEx will have a great year amid strong e-commerce sales back on the 29th of June. Now, FDX is cutting costs & has withdrawn 2023 guidance after Q1 shipments disappointed. At this point, do you think Cramer should even bother sharing his opinions?
Jim Cramer predicted that FedEx will have a great year amid strong e-commerce sales back on the 29th of June. Now, FDX is cutting costs & has withdrawn 2023 guidance after Q1 shipments disappointed. At this point, do you think Cramer should even bother sharing his opinions?
FedEx CEO says he expects the economy to enter a ‘worldwide recession’
FedEx CEO says he expects the economy to enter a ‘worldwide recession’
FDX large after market drop, justified or over reaction?
Risky Strategy: Selling and Re-Purchasing to Reduce Cost Basis During a Crash
FDX potential monster short opp if she continues to breakdown
Earnings for the Week of June 20, 2022
Weekly Earnings Calendar by Implied Move - Highlights: FDX and?
FedEx Calls Will Revive r/RedditIsland, an FDX Due Diligence
Calls on FedEx (FDX). USPS is just some random sports company so don't buy puts.
Calls on FedEx (FDX). USPS is just some random sports company
Gates Foundation exits Alphabet, pares Microsoft, Walmart, Berkshire holdings
Fed up with losing? Buy FedEx ($FDX)!!!
Phoenix from the Ashes- Check out FDX - possibly good for a 5 point Pop Monday Opening
Expected Moves this week: USO, XOM, CVX, WEAT, FDX, and more.
SPY is burning up, 420 blaze it?
Questions about straddle Options in relation to the fine example of Autism seen in todays episode of “FDX Call Guy : Theta My Ass”
Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, December 17, 2021
Here is a Market Recap for today Friday, December 17, 2021
Mentions
FDX, UPS, HSHP, ALL, *maybe* LUNR.
IMO, it isn’t to invest in the high CapEx companies. Look at the cash flow. Who are they spending that capital on? Take Amazon for example; They are engaged in new contracts with OSK (airport equipment for Prime Air), FDX (freight, bulk, and deliveries they can’t otherwise do in 2 days or less), and AAWW (who wet leases basically *all* of AMZN’s aircraft). Regarding the last point; wet lease contracts can be a bit confusing to folks not in the aviation business. Basically, AMZN owns the airplanes, but *none* of operating certificates, equipment, staff, pilots, or facilities. They cover AAWW’s operating expenses, pay their staff, add a bit on top for profit, *and* provide them fueled aircraft (the “wet” portion) in return for operating under AAWW’s airline license and insurance. But AMZN doesn’t operate their own flights (matter of fact, they are forbidden from doing so as they aren’t a licensed air carrier).
I’ve been telling you about FDX for a month and a half now bitches! If you did listen, your already partying. If you didn’t listen… Im glad you are out on the street! Take your shitty losing mouth with ya!
My fellow gentlemen and colleagues. The past mention on the beginning unilateral calendar equaling a month’s time I respectfully mention FDX. This stock has out performed most stocks in a time when margins where raised to stop the leveraging of Silver. Silver which is needed in operational mechanization of solar panels, cell phones, etc…caused margins to be raised in China. The USA soon afterward did the same. This caused the margin call holders to off load and sell stocks to meet the margins so the brokers would not sell their good stock. Since most silver holders own gold thats what they sold. Crypto holders who lack the understanding of finance bought gold to shore up the losses they were sustaining. So when everyone started selling, it cascaded into a total fallout of the market. FDX whose beat eps and profit cause large institutions like the New York teachers union, Vanguard and many more to buy shares of stock. FDX had no position’s in silver or crypto shielding them from any stock market crash. Many looking for a haven listened to me and protected their losses by investing in FDX. So dear gentlemen and women, Im holding FDX stock and currently showing a massive bull run on AMD until the end of the month. My proof is the 8.28% gain on the market today out performing its rivals. So Spank! Spank! And ride them bitches!!! Make sure you tell them. “Hey bitches” You know…..” I love you! “
I’ve been tell’n Ya Bitches for a month and a half now FDX. When the crap hit the fan FDX … Sole money witch bitch maker. Yesterday when all you bitches were crying I did a holla again FDX and then added best stock going up Everyday til the end of February AMD! AMD just crossed the Hidden Convergence Divergence out of the black hole into the gas emitting pulsar straight up out of the whole friggin universe. Did I mention Im still holding FDX! Im whipping yo bitches ass ..Spank…Spank! Can ya feel it baby! Can ya feel it Baby! Ouch ! My hands are gettin tired. Oh by the way bitches! Ya know I love You!!!
FDX and AMD up until the end of February. What ever was driving the downfall by leveraging the markets ran out of money or control. They will be buying back in making earnings then dump again at the end Of February. Why? You always take profit when your up 20%. Enjoy the game, Like the Bob Seger song, “Your Still The Same”.
Did I happen to mention FDX today. I know I have been tell YA All for a month now. Sorry Im a narcissist, I , me, myself etc: Well bitches I did take some profit. How bout something different… how about AMD through the roof starting tomorrow until the end of the month. Rumor has it..awoo! Rumor has it!!!! Hee! Haa!! Haa!
Dollars depreciated 10% , layoffs in January over 100,000 , interest rate are 3.5% and over 6% for mortgages, which is going to lead to higher interest so people or companys could buy bonds to strengthened the dollar. We are going into or officially are in a recession. That said Im still holding FDX, you know the stock I have been telling you about for a little more than a month now.
Everything in shambles except FDX
FDX. Pretty clearly gapping upwards the last few days and had an utterly massive target upgrade from $295 to $380. Pretty glad I hopped on at $300 because there's a ton of positive catalysts going for it right now (likely MD-11 return in March-May, Freight spinoff adding $20B in value just to existing shareholders alone, and record profitability and increasing efficiencies of scale).
Did I mention today , I can’t remember, I’ve been telling you guys about FDX for over a month now. Just wondering?
Only pointing it out one more time I’ve been telling you guys for a month now FDX.
Been telling ya for a month now FDX.
Been telling you FDX all the way!
My main one is FDX. It’s not glamorous, but it provides consistent growth, dividends, and value all at the same time.
A good way of chasing it without major risk is courier services. UPS and FedEx were both some of the first essential workers declared specifically because of their ability to pick up and deliver antigen tests under temperature controlled conditions. No other couriers are capable of end-to-end cold-chain shipping *from* anywhere in the world, *to* anywhere in the world in 24 hours or less. Both have since cemented themselves as the primary shippers of Pfizer, ModeRNA, Exact, Abbot, and other biotech companies. *If* another pandemic breaks out, expect UPS and FDX shares to trade at a 15-20% premium.
To give an example of one that will happen later this year: FedEx Freight is going to have an IPO after being spun off from the main body of FedEx Corporation. There aren’t any warrants being issued, so the first shares are to be awarded to existing FDX shareholders. For instances like that, what you ca do is buy the parent stock before the split happens, and you’ll be given the stock split.
One you don’t mention that *absolutely* meets this definition, is *actually* beat down, and showing signs of a significant rally; UPS. P/E of 16.7, still posting earnings of >1.2B/quarter, and a massive market cap of ~$92B/yr. They were down at $80/share this fall, I got in at $100, and wouldn’t be surprised if they rebounded to last year’s (and before) norm of $120-$140/share. Their stock never recovered from the COVID hit, and then had a series of bad news events… there’s nothing underlying as far as lack of fundamentals goes - just seems like pricing reflecting emotional reaction of investors than actual company performance. IMO, *that* is a massive rebound candidate. Side note, even if their current guidance of $107/share is accurate, you’d be getting 6% guaranteed passive growth per year just in dividends. There really isn’t a downside unless they slash dividend - which contrary to what people say, they won’t do because FDX’s stock is performing too well in comparison. UPS is a large cap company whose stock currently has mid to even small cap pricing. Insane opportunity, and with over 100 years of operational history, and complexity/scale that isn’t appealing for a takeover, not a ton of risk of going under.
APPL, INTC, WMT, COST, cant believe I am saying this one (NKE), FDX, Steel companies
For some stocks yes, for others: no. Biggest one for me that is getting a boost is the shipping sector, which has honestly been beaten to a pulp by the last year. Basically, the gains everything else is seeing have been synonymous to the shipping industry tanking. The funny thing is; the shipping industry is making a *killing* on tariffs due to rate hikes and brokerage fees. More than that; companies like FDX and UPS are multinational - but the market prices them as if they are domestic-only, which misses probably around 75% of their actual markets, and leaves analysts confused AF as to how they keep beating projections.
To your first example of Google and AI: *Always* remember that everyone thought Docusign, Fax, and email would kill FedEx. Instead, it made FedEx’s services of overnight and time-critical delivery more necessary than ever. There is still reasonable doubt in electronic communication. There is almost *none* in consigned shipment and delivery. Fax can and does fail, power outages and grid failures happen. None of that inherently stops aircraft from flying or landing, or FedEx from running the fleet out with old signature reference sheets to collect signatures with ink and pen. FWIW; work at FDX and was a courier last year when our network went down nation-wide. We reverted to said method of requiring everyone to sign in ink for receipt of their delivery. Same thing can be said of Google and AI. If AI craps out - Google is still there. Hell, the AI is likely *using* Google for training data or parts of its searches. Remove Google, and the entire house of cards comes crashing down.
UPS and FDX could go absolutely nuts depending on the timing. Current events impacting both that could end up happening near simultaneously: SCOTUS tariff ruling, if the tariffs are stricken, this means huge increases in shipping volumes. FDX is spinning off Freight into FDXF… *in June*. This coincides with the SCOTUS schedule. Both FDX and UPS are expecting the FAA to return the MD-11 to service in Q1-Q2, likely based on how the crash investigation is proceeding. That will be a 10-15% boost to their air fleets and could end up timed simultaneously to both the SCOTUS ruling and FDXF spinoff. The MD-11 grounding and tariffs are fundamentally what has hammered UPS down from >$200/share to now hovering around $100/share. If the tariffs are repealed and the MDs return to service at the same time, we could see a 100% rally in value for UPS simply as it returns to its normal trading position. Prospective increases due to trade increasing are expected to lead to between a 30-40% rally across the shipping sector as well, and the FDXF spinoff will come with a distribution of shares to existing shareholders (basically, you could get free shares timed right at an increase of 30-40% across both FDX and FDXF). TLDR: tariffs end = trade increases = significant shipping sector rallies.
Good technical read on UPS. Let me add fundamental context: UPS vs FDX Comparison: | Metric | UPS | FDX | |--------|-----|-----| | Price | $101.02 | $293.13 | | % Above 52wk Low | 22.33% | Mid-range | | Gross Margin | 18.77% | 21.60% | | Op Margin | 9.56% | 6.92% | | P/E | 14.94 | 17.28 | UPS actually has BETTER operating margin than FDX (9.56% vs 6.92%) but trades at a lower P/E (14.94 vs 17.28). That's the setup you want. Margin Trend Check (8 quarters): FDX margins bouncing around: 20.28% → 26.42% → 21.10% (volatile) Need to pull UPS specific margin data, but the P/E discount to FDX is notable. The Risk: At 22% above 52-week low, some of the tax-loss selling reversal may already be priced in. Compare to TTD (5% above low) or ADBE (7% above low) - those are closer to max pain. If earnings beat in Feb, UPS breaks through the 50-week MA you mentioned. Miss = retest $82. The lower P/E vs FDX gives margin of safety, but it's not a "sitting at the bottom" play like some others.
Both FDX and UPS also do LTL, and significant amounts of it in quite a few different markets. FedEx for instance has: [Freight](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/shipping/freight/ltl.html) [Express Freight](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/shipping/freight/air-freight/freight-1-3-business-day.html) - LTL freight via air And [Custom Critical](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/custom-critical.html#whatis) Huge note, Freight is being spun off and intending a separate IPO (just filed their Form 10) this year on the NYSE under FDXF with around $20B in FDXF shares distributed to existing FDX shareholders. https://investors.fedex.com/news-and-events/investor-news/investor-news-details/2025/FedEx-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-Earnings-Growth-Year-Over-Year/ When it is spin-off, it will become the largest publicly traded LTL in the US ($8.9B in revenue, next highest being ODFL at $5.8B, and XPO after that at $4.9B). To be clear; this isn’t a rumor, it’s happening May 31.
While I agree FDX and UPS look undervalued, I wouldn't say mining, datacenters, energy projects, etc are really relevant to these companies. Parcel and LTL carriers operate in a different segment of the industry. The projects you mentioned will likely be handled by truckload carriers.
3 main ones for me are FDX UPS and LUNR LUNR - because of acquiring both [KinetX](https://www.kinetx.com/missions) and [Lanteris](https://lanterisspace.com/about-us/history) and announcing a pivot into the defense and satellite industry. FDX and UPS - somewhat boring, but all the stuff for new datacenters, prospective mining, and power plant and energy projects has to be transported by *someone*. Both are pretty undervalued right now. I don’t see either moonshotting, but they’re good long term investments.
Most folks like UPS and FedEx can’t really use them at all. A lot of sort facilities are either on or near airports. Unless the FAA feels like shutting down portions of fully controlled airspace for drone corridors, flying tens of thousands of drones (would be needed even for the smallest of locations) per day to and from an airport is pure science fiction. Otherwise, you are going to need to buy thousands of drone trucks and similar thousands of shuttle trucks to carry freight to the drones, in addition to having our normal delivery trucks and flights. Delivery drones are a gimmick. Source: work at FDX, the only drones I have heard of us looking at are ones for flying to remote islands with pilot-less aircraft to avoid ETOPs requirements.
Honestly, fuel is factored into every shipping company’s prices. Profits don’t really change because we just raise or lower fuel surcharges as that market changes. We don’t really use the surcharges to increase profit, just to limit losses. These are updated weekly (which is why shipping prices can seem so volatile sometimes) and are [published on our websites](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/shipping/fuel-surcharge.html), broken down by service type. Just my $0.02 as a FDX employee. Both us and UPS have been trying to reduce fuel expenses, but mainly in the aviation sector by transitioning to sustainable aviation fuels and better flight routing. For example, in FY24 (2 years ago), we saved more than 130 *million* gallons of fuel, saving about $400M that year. But, again, most of those savings are from our airplanes and have more to do with retiring less efficient aircraft and acquiring more efficient ones or using more efficient fuels.
Personally; I’m buying a lot in the shipping market (UPS and FDX). Things always need to move from point A to point B, and literally no one is at the point of being peer competition to either UPS or FDX. Case in point being last year. FDX grew a ton and increased their operating income as well as yield per package; even in the face of tariffs and having 10% of their air fleet grounded right before the peak season. Despite UPS being down almost 40%, both their profit margin and operating income increased as well; again, in the face of what should have been a catastrophic year for shipping companies. Their last earnings report caused a 16% rebound in value, their next is due in a few weeks and could very easily be similar. Basically, expect them to return to their 10-year average throughout this year, pretty safe bet at a 20-30% gain.
Honestly, I only have a bit of stock popular here. Most of my portfolio is much more conservative picks like ALL, UPS, and FDX.
NVO (first to fda approved oral semaglutide and already a beat up share price) NBIS (one of the "safer" high-risk high reward ai infrastructure plays with assets and income not directly related to data center play to lessen some of risk) AMZN (both ai and robotics growth without overleveraging) META (oversold money printer moving away from underperformed segments) GOOG (just a monster of the modern world whose PE hasn't hyper inflated to the degree many ai companies have despite continued growth and the resources to actually end up successfully achieving their goals) INTC (I just expect more movement towards intel as a hedge against China aggression towards taiwan) SOFI (great growth AND a high quality customer base should make SOFI look appealing compared to some of its higher risk peers in the year ahead as the K shaped economy intensifies) UUUU (has had success at creating some high quality rare earths donestically) FDX (based on market caps of competing LTLs like old dominion, the freight spinoff should create a lot of value if you get in before if it doesn't run up too much)
Been holding FDX since i worked there in the early 2000s. I don't work there anymore, but the stock options were nice. Might pick up some UPS, but unions have been getting shit on lately. Hope that changes soon. Solid advice tho.
UPS, FDX, and holding for those sweet dividends. Both are pretty undervalued if anything right now too. A lot of folks day trading don’t understand that logistics shares are very long positions. Shorter positions on logistics are really dumb moves. Too many people value logistics on tabloid stories when most revenue is already decided and set in stone the previous year.
Literally retarded for not playing the correction on FDX 👍
Wow FDX fuck you, my straddle failed
MMs seem determined to keep FDX crab walking, at least in the premarket, to fuck everybody over.
Trucking tender rejections up to 12%....HTLD a few days from a golden cross....FDX reporting after hours today. Good setup.
Whelp, I was gonna get some FDX options before close tomorrow, so I guess I'll check in the afternoon.
Kelly is such a fn sloot. Her timeline is a huge red flag. The FDX plane plummet on Christmas Eve, and everyone assumes Chuck is fish food. Then, somehow, in the span of four short years, she manages to grieve, heal, date, fall madly in love with a the dentist, marry the guy, pop out some kids, all before Chuck shows up at her door. Four years. That’s not processing trauma, the math aint mathing bitch. What happened was the sloot went straight to the streets. Probably had the dentist on speed dial too. But in the end Tom Hanks wins. He walks away with the greatest pickup line in human history, “I survived four years alone on a desert island” that's a story that will slay any woman he comes across. That country girl at the crossroads with the angel winged truck? She didn’t stand a chance. In the end, the real lesson is to never trust women.
Best ER to gamble on this week? MU? NKE? FDX? CCL?
**Week of 12/19 Market News and Data** **Hello WSB members, this week is a hot week regarding news and data we have CPI data on Thursday. Some few companies are reporting this week. All eyes on $MU and $FDX Tuesday 12/16: - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov) - Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) - Unemployment Rate (Nov) - Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) - S&P Global Manufacturing (Dec) Wednesday 12/17: - Crude Oil Inventories Thursday 12/18: - CPI (MoM) & (YoY) (Nov) - Core CPI (MoM) & (YoY) (Nov) - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) - Initial Jobless Claims Friday 12/19: - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) & (MoM) (Oct) - Existing Home Sales (Nov) Have a great week everyone**
Generally already established companies, unlike growth stocks, Value stocks are generally publicly traded companies trading at cheap valuations relative to their earnings and long-term growth potential. You might think of companies like Target, Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Berkshire Hathaway, etc. Most stocks are classified as either value stocks or growth stocks. Generally, a value stock trades for a lower price than its financial performance and fundamentals suggest it's worth. A growth stock is a company expected to deliver above-average growth compared to its industry peers or the overall stock market. Value stocks generally have the following characteristics: They are typically mature businesses. They have steady (but not spectacular) growth rates. They report relatively stable revenues and earnings. Most pay dividends, although this isn't a set-in-stone rule. Some stocks easily fit into one category or the other. For example, package delivery giant FedEx (FDX -0.15%) is clearly a value stock that's fallen out of favor with Wall Street due to some short-term challenges. Conversely, fast-moving Tesla (TSLA +2.57%) is an obvious example of a growth stock.
https://preview.redd.it/6ecewp9pdu6g1.jpeg?width=736&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03fd494d1c09f218f6f84ef1c7b7322fdee3f5b4 MU & FDX 🔥
anyone keeping an eye on FDX, looks like a sleeper run. Whats the DD?
Amazon is heavily dependent on FDX UPS and the postal service
Hood was my best play Worst play was buying HOOD shares and not LEAPS. Also missing a FDX call that was a 60 bagger, the setup was there but i doubted TA in general - still do but it would have hit big. Biggest loss was not closing a put spread over $1 (it was 50% and i try to be mechanical) and watching it fall to a max loss.
FDX calls been printing non stop
FDX 275c weeklies were 30x baggers today. Why nobody told me to buy it ? Lol
Ordered a package Friday...FedEx estimated it would arrive Tuesday afternoon. I'm leaving tomorrow for a week and it's perishable. Got the package this morning. Calls on $FDX
From a data perspective, most "bubblers"are referring to Shiller/CAPE index which is the long term PE ratio of the SP500, and it currently does sit near all time highs. The "AI narrative" is because the largest weights in said SP500 are heavily invested in the area. The entire circular money argument is nonsense. When company A exchanges an asset of value (cash, equity) to company B for a good or service, that is a legitimate economic transaction. If B then transacts with A, that's an entirely separate activity. Nobody is giving away anything for free. What's different if A goes to B and and B goes to A, versus A goes to B and B goes to C? It just means C got a win over A - not that this is "real" and other was "fake". Let's suppose AMZN contracts out to UPS to help with package delivery. And then separately, UPS decides to use AMZN AWS to host their web service and compute infrastructure. Is this fake/circular money? I'm fairly certain most will agree it is not. UPS could have instead gone to MSFT Azure to get another party involved. So it's not different than my prior A/B/C examples. Nothing unusual or out of the ordinary. AI "loop" is simply because a) big tech are the ones driving AI buildout b) big tech has the funds to do so c) AI/GPU hyperscaler is just the next interation of CPU/cloud hyperscaler. Makes perfect sense to me, just as AMZN can go to UPS and FDX for delivery. They aren't going to UBER or LFYT or COKE (distributor for KO). It's called synergy - it can be both inter-business or intra-business.
Cargo only but UPS and FDX still fly em often
I just got an offer from FDX for an odd lot tender. it seems like a really bad deal!
**My Trade Details:** * Ticker: NKE * Strike Price & Expiration: $75 10/3/25 * Premium: $1.74 * Total Market Value: $3k **Rationale for Trade:** *Upcoming Earnings Report:* In recent months Nike has been stagnant around the mid $70s. Based on options trading movements, people are anticipating a significant swing, I'm guessing around 8-10%. Last quarter, Nike beat Q4 earnings expectations and soared 15% in one day. Another solid earnings beat could spark a big rally here. *News Catalysts:* RBC Capital just upgraded Nike to "outperform" on September 18, for several reasons. [See Here](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/nike-stock-rating-upgraded-by-rbc-capital-to-outperform-on-product-improvements-93CH-4243907). Additionally, Nike's management has been focusing on a turnaround and last quarter's results hinted that the sales slump could be bottoming out. [See Here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/nike-s-sales-beat-signals-the-sportswear-maker-s-slump-is-easing?embedded-checkout=true). *Technical Setup:* From a technical perspective, Nike's stock appears to be primed for a rebound. In the last year its down >10%. According to momentum indicators the stock is oversold: Nike's 14-day RSI is \~21 (well below typical threshold of 30). [See Here](https://stockinvest.us/stock/NKE#:~:text=Nike%20is%20oversold%20on%20RSI14,which%20increases%20the%20general%20risk). The downside is pretty limited here as a bad earnings report wouldn't drive down the price too much, but a good one could surge it. If it's positive news, Nike could easily rally to \~75+. *Options Market Signals:* The current options pricing shows high implied volatility, right ahead of earnings (45% IV versus \~21% realized volatility). [See Here](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/NKE/expected-move#:~:text=Latest%C2%A0Earnings%3A%20Earnings%3A%2009%2F30%2F25%20). While options contracts may be slightly overpriced, it also shows there might be a significant movement coming up. **Probability & Risk/Reward Profile:** *Profit Probability:* With the current delta of the contract, it's between 30-40% chance to profit but with the potential gains really high. Historically, when Nike beats expectations, the stocks upside tends to move much larger than the drops are on misses. *Risk/Reward:* If Nike's volatility crush is smaller than implied, or the news is disappointing, the calls could expire out of the money. However, the potential reward is multiples of the risk. If Nike rallys to >$80, it could be a +400% return. This is a completely asymmetrical payoff, we're risking a little to make a lot. (\~1:3 risk to reward ratio). Even factoring in the odds of success aren't above 50%, the EV is most likely strongly positive. PS: I made the same style research, risk profile and bet on FDX call options (FDX CALL $230 9/19 when FDX was @ $225) and that just soared after the 9/18 earnings report. DM for proof.
What do you think about FDX?
I like FDX and am long but you didn’t mention anything in your DD about tariffs?!?!
Is anyone bag holding FDX lmao couldn't be me
Got fucked by penny stocks, FDX puts, and LEN calls all in one day Is OKLO next?
9/26 212.5 put FDX am I completely cooked?
Took an L on both RIVN calls and FDX puts. Great start to the day!
Oh well on FDX calls, I rolled to a month out because options became cheap
holding a 0DTE on FDX and hoping it nosedives is so cancer
FDX opening flat really saved my life
Literally called this yesterday lmao FDX didn’t hold AT ALL. Watch it go red
FDX made the fuck your calls fuck your puts move
never trade FDX options, remember this
FDX, the whole market, or yes
FDX giving back the whole earnings pop, back to baseline, destroying both puts and calls alike
God damn it FDX I wanted 10% movement not this 5% bullshit
So FDX puts were not the move
Literally first time I have ever bought puts, I did on FDX, fml
Very well said. People are upset they missed the bottom not only covid bottom, 2022 bottom but also tariff bottom. Everyday we just see people posting negative post and why market should revert. Instead we don't talk about how poorly economic data is collected through survyes. Earnings are still beating look at FDX today, semi remain strong. Tech is strong in general. Unemployment remains at record lows.
These FDX 247 calls are cooked.
Shhhh.....FDX call is starting soon....
I suspect FDX gonna run out of steam and by eod tomorrow or Monday it’s gonna go red, guidance doesn’t impress anybody
FDX you piece of shit stay up there.
Algo sympathy on FDX earnings, but already giving it up
What a load of shit FDX is
what the fuck is happening with FDX which one of you dumped AH
FDX fucks me again… can’t get two correct in a row… fuck… Hope it goes back to flat at least
I don't trust this FDX move. Weak guidance and the call upcoming.
#Imagine not buying FDX calls. LMAO 🤌