FPE
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Valuing Semiconductor manufacturers and a look at INTC, AMD, TSM and MU
Buy Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT) before its earnings release (ER) today after close
Technical Analysis Series (3): Move it, Move it, Moving Averages
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Those are FPE and not P/E ratios..
This has been answered. They are both forward PE. One is a 12mo FPE and the other is a 24mo FPE.
I'm with those who say these will at least double. What's that old adage about ORCL stock? Never bet against their fourth quarter results? Also helps that ORCL's traded down to 17 FPE multiples and MSFT is down to 19. Were you supposed to buy WMT or COST shares at double ORCL and MSFT's valuation?:) OpenAI's ad monetization pilot results are out, and that stock is valued at $728 on the private markets. You also got confirmations Stargate Michigan is also on track today as shown below. ORCL also announced recent Medicaid, Medicare, Pentagon, and too many other government contracts to list here just today along with job cuts. Congrats. in advance and sorry you're taking any heat at all on this one. https://preview.redd.it/1i6hanvfoesg1.png?width=1073&format=png&auto=webp&s=457a59b269a4703c98e68f77422303296d71f661
Never buy Micron at a low PE. That means they have maxed out their margins and are treated as an electronic commodity. Best to buy when earnings are negative so high or non-existent FPE or margins are expanding. Indicates a new base in memory prices.
A little bit of a stretch to go back 3-4 years to claim it’s a great buying opportunity. Who cares about 4 years and and that pricing? We’re in 2026 I’ve never invest in SOFI because it’s overvalued and has been for a while. But why is it every financial YouTuber is talking about SOFI, a company trading at rich valuations proclaiming it’s something amazing when nobody I know in real life has ever heard of it. YouTubers are bought out and the sheer volume of them that talk about SOFI on any dip feels paid for. Since 2025 it’s a trash speculative stock that is significantly overvalued but have a very good marketing team/strategy. Well Fargo forward Pe 11 JP Morgan forward PE 13 Bank of Murica FPE 10.5 SOFI Forward Pe 32 Why would I pay 3x for a small bank with significantly higher risks over 3 quality bank stocks with a proven history of surviving the worst financial crises
They are a profiting business that has already compressed to sub-20 FPE, despite at worst growing users at 20% YoY. You can absolutely not buy the upside story, but there’s not much downside to be had from this point and how flush they are with cash/positive cash flow. The risk and atrocious sentiment is priced in. Worst case for Duolingo, they get bought out by Alphabet or Anthropic or OpenAI if they get serious about education as a business model. There’s no reason any of those companies wouldn’t take the opportunity of Duolingo’s large and growing user base to immediately capture 85% market share. Disclosure: I’m holding just over 60 shares of Duolingo. I absolutely believe that they are going to either do okay (which would be a significant win) or reaccelerate user growth and match their 100 million DAU target by 2028 (which is a 10x opportunity). In the case it is the slow steady growth, I’m happy with ‘just’ 15/20% compounding growth. Either way I do expect it to take years for the company’s future to become evident and for market sentiment to shift
Great post. Thanks for the perspective. And Friday, NVDA closed at a 16.3 FPE next fiscal year.
NVDA has traded down to a 16.9 FPE next FY. For context, SPY is 23.6 FPE. XLK is 30.67 FPE, QQQ is 24-30 FPE, and INDUSTRIALS are 30+ FPE depending on the source one uses. Can't make this stuff up.
True makes sense. Crazy that MSFT has 22 FPE and COST is 48 (WMT 44.5). Everybody chasing defensives lately
SMCI's currently trading at a 9.8 FPE and $17.5B market cap. For context, that market cap is so low, it's less than 1/2 of the $36B revenues analysts expect for FY26, which ends in June 30, 2026. :) xAI's Colossus 2 (https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/i/174558672/colossus-2-from-zero-to-200mw-in-six-months) is also training as of mid January. SMCI also just told us they're increasing rack capacity to 6K a month by June. Wishing you the best with your positions. https://preview.redd.it/s4p7zbd97jgg1.jpeg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed19e657969437eb10a254797504dfeb8ffed822
And that’s with a FPE of 30-40. Industrial average for AI tech company.
Valuations have been so high for so long that FPE of 20ish is considered a discount? We're cooked.
60% EPS growth. means that if the SP stays at its current level its forward PE would be a 17. TO maintain a FPE between 23-25 the SP would have to be around 288. I believe EPS will grow around 50-65% yoy. Especially with significantly more penetration into foreign markets like saudi arabia, india, potentially china, and europe. Robotics will be realized next year and powered on NVDA and AMD chips
Economy gets fucked, government prints money. Inflate everything. Companies charge more because things cost more profits go back up, FPE revised back higher, stocks pump. We're at the point where recessions are speeding up, coming every 5-7 years instead of 10-15. Governments create endless money and Inflate their debt away to afford interest payments. Is there a bubble? Sure, but let's not pretend that any market crash is going to last more than 6-9 months. If you get in at a decent cost basis and don't pick poop companies with bad balance sheets or imaginary revenue. You can eat a 35% drop in your port and hold out until it goes green a year later. Maybe this sub can't since everyone is jacked to the tits on 0DTEs lmao. Imo the AI bubble fear mongering is overblown.
At a macro level, let me explain the thesis you seem to be missing: \> Economy gets fucked \> Consumers have less discretionary income \> Companies return on ad spend plummets \> META, GOOGL revenue plummets and first thing to go is CAPEX (read, GPU spend) \> NVIDIA revises forecasts down all of a sudden your forward P/Es don't look so reasonable. There's a reason FPE is forward and not realized, that's the threat Anyways, I'm not retarded enough to buy NVDA puts (COF, ALLY, MGM, LUV puts are very on the table though) but your prices are not extreme theory misses the primary threat vector
Some much data is not present in this crayon math of a post: RPOs, sovereign infra, datacenters outside of USA, long etc. Want to make it simple? Check the supply chain: - RAM and storage markets are white hot -- smartphone makers only have memories for a few weeks, too expensive to negotiate for more -- spot prices for memories are being suspended ATM - ODMs (Hon Hai, Quanta, etc) increasing capacity and forecast - Jensen begging for more wafers at TSMC -- CoWoS is at capacity, more coming -- 3nm at capacity, and they can only increase a bit - Taiwan had 144% exports increase to the states, second largest in history Do all the napkin math you want about PE, FPE or PEEPEE, but the truth is in the pudding Bonus: (not added to the previous list because I can't verify this) one side analyst, John Vinh from KeyBanc (with 60% success rate) is reporting that hopper orders where increased, the rationale is that china is ordering some back again.
Tbf those who believe there is over investment in AI argue that growth in AI spend is going to come to a screeching halt as one or more of the hyperscalers decide they are not going to see the kind of returns they originally expected. In that case FPE tells us literally nothing besides "at this exact moment, if growth continues as we expect, NVDA is not really overvalued."
Nvidia FPE is 30 Broadcom FPE is 38 Costco FPE is 45 Walmart FPE is 35 Tech is still behind Retail here.
These are not comparable,PLTR is subjectively expensive but had 63% yoy growth, increasing margings net profits and a rule of 40 of 114 which literally unheard of, yes maybe growth rates will stall at some point but this gives the crazy PE. TSLA has a decaying business, compression of margins, it got saved by the US tax credit last quarter but nex one you will see revenue falling and less car sales. A crazy CEO that wants a 1 Trillion pay package and lives of a robotaxis and humanoid future that might not materialize for the next decade. Keep in mind, that factually Waymo is ahead of tesla on robotaxis and china has as impressive humanoid robots as tesla for a fraction of the cost but still trades at FPE of 250...
Imagine that their product helps healthcare reduce sepsis case by 30%, decrease panasonic days to perfomance of new hires by months, increase peoductivity of airbus by more than 10%, decrease bp cost per barrel by multiple dollars, increase lethality and autonomy of ukrainian armed forces drones, etc wtc etc Oh wait...you dont need to imagine it. Amazon, apple, msft were all 500+pe back in the days. PE is a past looking metric and doesnt account for accelerating growth. Even the 1 year FPE doesnt mean shit...they beat on earnings amd guidance every time
Thanks for the post. Just to add to what other kindly wrote, MELI. After a recent pullback, it's oversold, trading at less than 1/2 it's 5 year avg. fwd. FPE and trailing PE today. While it's incorporated in the US, only 60 percent of the markets MELI serves even has a broadband internet connection. (Investing in AMZN when the US had those stats worked out nicely for investors.) MELI's also been investing heavily in infrastructure while all LOBs continue to grow at astonishing rates, especially their fintech arm. Citi just put them on their catalyst watch list. Their recent promo with OpenAI and announcements they are getting into the pharmacy business had little impact on the stock. I buy on any 10+ percent dips, especially when it underperforms the SPY which is rare. Hope that helps your confluence a bit.
Well, I've posted some DD posts on this sub, you can look at those to get an idea. But those are of course simplified for a general audience. In very short, a DD should concise of: * Valuation, check if P/S, PE, FPE etc are within normal ranges for the industry. Buying a great company at an awful valuation still makes it a horrible investment. * Growth: Are the numbers that should be going up going up, consistently, * Cash flows: Do they have plenty of cash, is cash coming in? Can they finance their own operations without raising cash (usually by dillution). Dilution is fine, if it's for growth, it's not fine if it's to keep the lights on. * Upcoming milestones: Is there anything coming that might be a catalyst? What are the odds of those, are there already writings on the wall that they're going to reach that milestone. And is it STILL a good buy if they WOULDN'T reach that milestone/catalyst? The last one is why, for example, I stay away from biotech stocks, they ALL are 'weeks away' from the next phase trials, but there's no way to know if the phase will conclude successfully, and if it fails, and it usually does with biotech, most often, the company is dead in the water. Not that biotechs are bad, but then they'd have to already be very strong in the other categories.
I thought the stocks associated with Leucovorin may do better as insurance will cover the drug once the new use is added to the label. They're also inexpensive as TEVA is trading at a 6.8 FPE, while GSK is at an 8.41 FPE.
I am using equity growth as the basis, so possibly that. But I think the FPE or PEG might work. Thanks.
Yes there is. When a professional analysts reviews company they often provide 2-3 year eps and revenue estimates. Many websites will compile these... Zachs is an example of this. eg for Adobe [https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ADBE/detailed-earning-estimates](https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ADBE/detailed-earning-estimates) This includes next year and the next five years annualized. Frankly...I like the composite estimates on finviz to be better. They'll provide a 5 year CAGR eps growth estimate on the main page...but also really cool averaged eps estimates (and revenue) on their financials page. eg for Adobe: [https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ADBE&p=d&ty=ea](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ADBE&p=d&ty=ea) The blue bars are actual eps...and the grey bars estimates. You can see how accurate analysts have been , what they project in the future and how many believe this. Seeking Alpha also compiles future projections. But they just reword these differently...basically a 1 year forward pe, 2 year FPE, 3 year, etc... Below that is the annual eps growth rate sometimes into 2028. eg for Adobe: [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADBE/valuation/metrics](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADBE/valuation/metrics) Be careful with these analysts projections. Sometimes the estimates they are based off are "stale"...because of this sometimes recent analysts upgrades or downgrades can be signifant because they are "fresh".
Im not saying it isnt helpful but it is speculative, as it relies on estimates which can be subject to bias and miscalculations. PE isnt any more irrelevant than FPE is, because past results dont gaurantee future results - just like no one can predict what an earnings per share will be one year from now
FPE is based upon analyst estimates, which represent Wall Street consensus. No one has a crystal ball, but the average of several dozen analysts (if not 50+ in most cases) is an extremely helpful data point. Speculation is when one buys a stock with zero fundamentals to support their thesis.
FPE is entirely speculative, thought
PE is backwards-looking (12 months). The market is always forward looking, hence FPE - Forward Price/Earnings Ratio - is imminently more valuable and useful than P/E ratio.
I can't answer any better than Leading\_Load5505. Just wanted to add the stock is currently trading at a 7.4 FPE. For context, the current SPY FPE is 3ish times that at 21.
FPE is now 7.9. Congrats if you own it at these levels. :)
Love the restaurant...hate the valuation. They have a forward PE of 129.33. For reference 29 FPE can be high for some companies...but 129 FPE is jaw dropping. I had AI do the math based on their store count and it just doesn't add up. Their growth recently spiked because they were able to purchase Zoes Kitchens and convert them to Cava's. But now that this trick is done growth will slow down. The hedge funds which have done the math on the stock are shorting it heavily (13.55%). IMO the stock will crash and there will be better entry points in the future for what otherwise is a quality company...but with hideous evaluations.
It’s the biggest health insurer in the country. They will probably fill up the boat with expense reserves and wipe out all their EPS in 2025. Average estimate is $26 for 2026. This maybe too high. Lowest diluted EPS past 3 years is $18. That is probably worst case scenario for 2026. I’d say you average these figures and $21 in diluted EPS FOR 2026 is very attainable. They will grow off that EPS figure. Thats a 14 FPE. Not many SPY components trading this cheaply. I have 40 shares and plan to add more but they could retest the low when they release their next report and disclose that they will not have any earnings in 2025. Buy low sell high.
not financial advice. GOOG looking attractive at these FPE and PE levels. Also doesn't Google give chrome away free? that isn't likely to cause an enormous dent in earnings. So much as it will be a boon to competitor who can monetize the browsing history. But doj saying keep AI investments and give away your browser big whoop. My guess is they still know what you're looking at via cookies . . . Oh yeah you're all a bunch of degenerates too so no surprise there 
NVDA trading at less than 20 FPE
NVDA is trading at 25X FPE. In the absence of artificial, shoot your self in the foot tariffs. We are pumping astronomically.
I love Axon the company but their stock is still trading at very high multiples, 110 PE now and 80 FPE.
I agree - stocks that are at the right price are few and far between. It’s hard to find right now. This is why Buffett has such a huge hoard of cash - his largest in a couple of decades. I like GOOGL at 21x PE, NVDA at 30x FPE, MU at a PEG ratio of 0.20. Also bought a little Amazon and META during this mini downturn. I like PLTR and SNOW long term, but not at these multiples. I also like TSM but again think it’s a bit overvalued.
Only GOOG has a lower FPE than NVDA in Mag7...growing at 80% per year. Go figure
This is what so many people miss. If you want good returns, you need good companies at fair or under value. Take AMZN and GOOGL last year, good returns last year because the stocks were trading significantly below their fair value. And for this year, UBER ran up 30% already because it was deeply undervalued. As a value investor, I've avoided MSFT and AAPL because it was overvalued based on PE, FPE, PEG.
You can’t compare CVNA to PLTR. It’s not just P/E. CVNA has a PE of 3300+, FPE of 100+ but PS of 2.5 and FPS of 3.7 On the other hand PLTR has a PE of 600+, FPE of 200+ yet PS of 90+ and FPS of 69+ If you had to short one, which one would you short based on these facts?!
GOOGL is fucking cheap right now with 19 FPE stop dumping and start hoarding you regards  (Gemini 2.0 is actually good and cheaper than deepseek cope )
Several points that every doomsayer and panic-monger seem to overlook are: 1. This change only affects scaling. 500 billion units of GPU power are still far superior to 500 million. The demand for GPUs remains strong; the difference is that you now get significantly more value for your investment. The profitability of paid LLMs will soar, even after price reductions. 2. If everyone can now own a highly efficient LLM, it creates an entirely new wave of potential customers who currently don’t own any GPUs but will need them in the future. This is indeed a disruption, but it’s not a negative one, nor does it mark the end of the line. It certainly doesn’t justify drastic market reactions like a 20% drop, let alone something extreme like 40%. Such a drop would result in a FPE of around 6, making it an absolute no-brainer to buy — and it’s already a strong buy right now. TL;DR: Nvidia (despite its obvious bias) is correct in stating that this development will ultimately drive even more GPU demand. The improved scaling only enhances the value proposition for Nvidia’s customers.
FPE is closer to 40. $2.95 EPS on $120 share price. Also, the problem is the FPE is assuming massive revenue growth and margins on those sales. Any hit to that top line growth will badly damage EPS. The market is forward looking and right now the concern is that the estimates might be too high.
This. So many people struggle with understanding PE. High PE’s are often fine for rapidly growing companies and accelerating earnings. Their PE is 22 and FPE is increasing to 28. To give this perspective… if stock stayed flat, their PE gets worse. If PE stays flat, their stock price shrinks.
At this point, every up day I’m selling portions of big winners which includes SOFI and PLTR. I’m not selling all at once because you can’t time the market but I am taking chunks off the table because I agree it feels like it’s run too much. I’m keeping the cash or re-investing into stocks I feel are cheap, more value based low FPE. But yeah, things feel frothy and the bozos are everywhere calling for 10x after 10x. Someone will be holding the bag and it won’t be me, at least not a full bag!
APPL and NVDA are kinda expensive but it isn't fair to lump those with TSLA which have absurd PE and FPE ratios. MSTR on the other hand is a ticking time bomb buying up a useless asset during peak world conditions.
I have yet to see a solid bear case for MSTR. It survived FTX, and has the same FPE as NVDA (34) and perfectly reasonable debt/equity ratio of 1. Not many know about Finance on here, just hyperbolic reddit knowitall vague doom scroller comments?
It has a FPE over 110, which is high for a stock. It has to maintain that high FPE and maintain the high growth expectations (currently 85%) to maintain value. If people start selling, the FPE will drop. If it doesn't meet earnings, it probably will drop. It has a lot of room to drop. If you hold, it should be with money set aside to buy more if it dips down unless you are up a lot and willing to sit on a loss because you think earnings and FPE will eventually balance out in a few years. SPGI rates it as low quality which I don't like about it (meaning it will likely struggle to continue the same growth).
Silly indicator, the FPE was over 1000 a few years ago.
The OP is wasting his time. PLTR will have a 1000 FPE and still keep going to the moon. The fundamental target is 1000000000000 FPE. You don't understand the ontology of my cosmology. 100% Buzz light year in with loans in my kids names too.
Look at the FPE compared to its average.
You can go look at SPGI valuations for stocks or do the spreadsheet work yourself. There are many stocks in different ranges. There are plenty of good stocks with good evaluations and growth to pick from. The ones at the top of the total market are slowing down due to higher FPE and lower growth, but it is still positive which will push the market higher. However, the macroeconomic picture can still cause stocks to drop and that is always the risk of any stocks. However, you should have a plan for what you do now as a hedge and when that drop happens cause that risk is always there and always will be.
I already said Google but I am gonna say a household name that no one expects JNJ Trailing at 19 FPE 35% ROIC Growth between 4-6% + 3% divi 58% debt to equity with 25B cash on hand Normally, when a company does a spin-off, all the parts involved do well if it's done with Bona Fides (ejem INsolventum)
Some neg margins, SPGI rates the value at 25, quality at 31, growth stability at 42, health at 33. I don't like this. I only buy if value and quality are 50 and up. I want all positive and improved margins also. Last time I check a few weeks ago, current earnings make it worth $38. Analysts end of 25 earnings predictions make it worth $247 (if all things work out). 50 percent upside if earnings are met and FPE remains in play. Learn the math and not just the story.
To add an example using Micron (MU). Yesterday they had earnings and pretty much everyone was expecting good results, the vega was high (over 100%) which is a huge indicator people can get burned. I decided to play either way because stock is heavily undervalued (it was at 19 PE, 7 FPE). Some people bought 1d calls ATM. The value of those contracts were huge (due high volatility) so as soon as the earnings was released, if the stock did not moved by a lot everyone would lose a shit ton of money, even if they were right in the strike price and movement. To be on the safe side since I was already burned early this year with MU, I bet on a far OTM (145$) for Jan 2025. The stock moved a lot after earnings keeping the Vega pretty much still, so we can disregard it. Now, people with ATM or ITM for close dates (1-45d) managed to make a few hundreds, however they risk was incredibly high. On my case I was 200% at market open having literally 0 risk if the earnings went wrong or sideways cause I would still have until January for the stock to pick up (which it would since the company is heavily undervalued). If your analysis doesn't account for extrinsic value, it does not make sense to have a 200% increase on a contract that is still not profitable. Naturally too much OTM would have an incredibly low delta and high gamma, you would need to have big swings in stock price to make delta pick up and actually make a difference on your gains. My thesis (145) was far OTM for current price (98) but was within the analysts expectation (153). Delta was not that good but I had a good gamma. You can actually use online calculators to find the best contracts to buy for, with the most interesting combinations of the Greeks for your thesis but in this specific example was just gut feeling after following the stock throughout the year.
According to the FPE it’s trading heavily undervalued. But, their financials don’t look good. Their net income is up and down. Their current assets are out weighed by current liabilities by like 10x. Their free cash flow isn’t increasing either. Idk about this one.
SMCI does split in a month and will be under $100 then, so there's that. Also trading at an 8 FPE.
They’ve missed the last 3/4 earnings. FPE is higher than mrq PE. They are currently trading at 2x the book value. Their net income for the last year is 9%, and since 2022 their revenue and earnings have both declined annually.
They’ve missed the last 3/4 earnings. FPE is higher than mrq PE. They are currently trading at 2x the book value. Their net income for the last year is 9%, and since 2022 their revenue and earnings have both declined annually.
I think it’s puts on SCVL. Their FPE is higher than last quarters PE, they are trading 1.75x their book value, and previous net income was only 6% of revenue.
You’re agreeing with me no? FPE being < previous Q PE suggests the stock might be undervalued. With that combined with the less than 1.0 P/Book (mrq) it kinda comes across as undervalued.
That’s what I’m on the fence about. 2 quarters ago they absolutely destroyed earnings but dropped -7%. Last quarter only beat earnings by +.02 but pumped 12.5%. The DCF value suggests they are 55% overvalued at the current price. But their FPE is lower than the previous PE. So there’s cases for both sides.
That and their FPE is lower than last quarters PE.
Forward PE of 37 a bargain….lol. I remember when it a PE of 8. Semiconductor companies are very CYCLICAL. You can’t pay a 37 FPE for any company.
100 FPE is a perfectly crommulant ratio
look at the growth rate of revenue and earnings of big 8..... and then their FPE things don't seem out of line at all with proviso taht i am a little worred that in 18 months time, companies will realize they bought way too many NVDA chips and aren't getting a positve ROI on any of it...... See Lucent Nortel 2001 but compared to 2000, these stocks aren't out of line on a valuation basis.... and provide 90%+ of S&P's growth (ex-out energy firms revenue up on oil price and banks up on interest rate increase.. i mean, real growth)
Not sure why people are so high on AMD. Comparing it to a few other chip stocks and adjacent stocks on some key metrics: AMD TPE = 226 FPE = 45 Profit margin = 5% OM = 1% Ret on Assets = 0.5% Ret on Equity = 2% YoY rev growth = 2.2% Compare that to NVDA Trailing PE 71 Forward PE 46 Profit margin 54% Op Margin 65% ROA 49% ROE 115% Rev 80bn YoY rev growth 262% I can see why you might think NVDA’s growth will slow, but how do you value AMD that much more than NVDA?
I’ve been obsessing about PE’s and forward PE’s lately. Totally willing to push limits and risk with high multiples. Even 40, 50 can be rationalized a bit. But ARM at 635x PE and 121 FPE is beyond my comfort level. Can’t even get acquired. It’s a great company and irrational exuberance around it so I wouldn’t short either.
All these comments about how low and stagnant INTC has been. I would have thought they had a super low forward PE considering they are so far behind competitively and negative revenue growth. But it is still 29! Higher than the much faster growing TSMC of 28. With all the issues and past performance, I would have guessed INTC FPE to be closer to 18-20. Being at 29 doesn’t sound cheap at all.
Here’s for future reference: if it was easy everyone would do it. Consider the velocity of money… if you go up 3% every day for a month that 3% gain gets more and more expensive (in terms of market cap) so after a certain number of days it gets to be so overvalued it must come down. If you look at NVIDIAs earnings and future expected earnings nothing is impressive except their FPE and it’s blown way up compared to their current earnings. NVIDIA is NOT more valuable than apple, Microsoft, or entire European countries even though the market cap is sitting higher. People should do more research before investing
New design rollout and expected growth in 5G demand. The stock’s relatively down at the moment due to capital pullbacks but FPE for next couple of years looks good
AMD was actually valued more than NVDA most of this year from a forward PE basis. I think that was their trouble. Being #2 shouldn’t mean more richly valued than #1. NVDA was just about 35x and AMD was low 40’s. In past month, NVDA has risen so much. Today, NVDA is 52.3. AMD is 46.3 Nit saying FPE is only way to value but it was odd that AMD was higher than NVDA. Both will likely exceed earnings and raise future earnings so these multiples may drip by 5x next quarter. Still pretty high though.
Yeah, they will likely exceed earnings expectations again. My guess is we climb to 55 FPE by earnings then it drops to 50 when they beat. Or whatever we are at, probably a reduction of 5 or so is reasonable. The numbers are so big now too they are also somewhat limited by sheer scale and literal lack of supply.
Just like their PE creeps up then drops every earnings, so does their FPE.
Not a student of AAPL like I am NVDA, but I look at Apple and wonder where their next big idea comes from, they seem to be aimless a bit under Tim. The big difference is growth. Investors get it and have priced them appropriately if looking at something like FPE.
I haven't seen a use case that is super profitable yet. NVDA is already making a ton of money on it, but only because CUDA is their technology and currently the most useful/scalable core type to build these models on. I am not sure it justifies their PE/FPE, but maybe they've got more cooking.
Apple was ~300 FPE in 2004...PE is useless to look at if you dont understand the company being it amd it's forward accelerating growth potential. Also institution FPE analysis doesnt take into account said growth accelaration thanks to their software distribution breakthrough.
This fucking taco stand is more expensive than NVDA on PE and FPE.
now do it with FPE, and lets so how this looks in 5 years.
PE of 40 and FPE of 54. That doesn't look like value.
Why yahoo finance shows FPE 35.59 vs I calculated around 41.5? NVDA is that bcs Market Cap Earnings P/E Ratio vs Earning forecast P/E method?
You write things here and saying that I am saying. But no. You make things up and call dumdum stupid. I invested on NVDA based on PEG ratio since Oct 2022 $140. I never sold it since then. We all know what FPE PE etc. Please stop talking trash. You don’t make sense
I was talking about 2 yrs FPE. This is not a buble
It's a rough stock, Korean firms historically grow very quickly then manage their companies in a way that is very non-investor friendly manner. There are also things like the the "chebol wall" where the older/bigger families have been seen as disruptors moving into the space with the govt's blessing. The population is also an issue due to userbase slowing/shrinking over time. If you're investing in it as a growth company this is a huge factor since market saturation and market growth YoY are big factors. In these type of growth-focused companies you need YOY consumer growth. People say "the amazon of" but it's not really a fit, Amazon has AWS which greatly adds to their valuation. CPNG doesn't have that, so to keep it on par or even bring in FPE doesn't really pan 1:1. They're also in an area competing directly with SE, and other "Amazon of XYZ asian country". So they will have a hard time growing outside of South Korea.
TIL 32 FPE with continuing growth is a bubble, lol.
I think it just simply depends on your view and how the market values the stock. Adobe has been such a powerhouse due to it's moat like you mentioned. But as tools progress and enter the scene they don't have to take ALL of Adobe's market share they just need to slow down Adobe's growth. Growth stocks are only awarded their FPE due to their growth. Microsoft has openly said they don't need to overtake Google in search but just take enough market share to deliver a big blow to their stock. Just look at PANW, NFLX, or any big moat/growth stock that started to show signs of maturing and no longer growing their revs/users YoY. I'm not saying Adobe becomes a garbage company but it will change the dynamics from a stock/investment point of view and it will also change the talent they are able to attract with SBC as part of their TC. Everyone used Netscape, everyone used Myspace, everyone used Intent Explorer, everyone used Massey, etc.
There is never a known time frame on a bubble. It is all money until one day it isn't. The question is when do venture capitalist start asking for people to prove returns. NVidia is selling the shovels to the gold rush so it is the "safe" stock. HOWEVER current FPE is above 35x. People think that chips will sell exponentially, but the truth with all bubbles is this is an arms race, which means that sooner or later when these VCs ask for returns or they will not support any more chip purchases which leads to companies going under, these chips being sold for pennies on the dollar. The other scenario is that someone win's the arms race and then everyone loses VC support and the same scenario above happens. Which is when the bubble bursts, but how long who knows, it depends on when investors get impatient.
So the trillion dollar question is Tesla a car company. So far the answer is swaying more toward yes. The 100x FPE days were betting on no. FSD and Robotaxis are a bust for the foreseeable future.
>With a PE of 90 you're paying $90 for every $1 of earnings. Rearward looking metrics are NEVER the way to value high growth stocks. NVDA FPE is a reasonable 33. Intel is 31 while AMD is 52.
>expensive as fuck at the moment Measured by what? I'm not advocating buying at this moment, but dive in a little deeper into the numbers. Consensus revenue next fiscal year is [$93B](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis?p=NVDA) which is growth of nearly 60% over the current year. I expect Nvidia will hit $25B/Q before year end. Net income is 51%. At 52 FPE AMD is a lot more expensive. NVDA at 33 is more in line with Intel at 31 and AAPL 28.
>doesn't make Nvidia a good buy It's funny, you know, have been hearing that sentiment since 2015 when it was 40 FPE. NEWS FLASH: ***It's never a good time to get into NVDA*** unless you ahve the benefit of a time machine.
You can currently buy a model Y LR for 45k +7500 tax credit, literally the lowest it has ever been, that is proof that not enough people are buying their cars. Everyone can say that Tesla has sold more cars than ever but it has been priced in. Even at the current stock it is 60 something times FPE. Tesla needs to grow, it is not an option for them. It should be very concerning because at Q3 margins were at 7% down from 17.2% a year ago.
no, look at the link. "Map filter" is set to FPE NVDA is 27 AMD is 41
NVDA has 10 years of growth ahead. It's FPE is 26, very reasonable by high tech standards. The idea it's overvalued has been eliminated by earnings catching up to forward multiple. You've done no research. Your analysis seems to be to lick your finger and hold it in the wind.