FPE
First Trust Preferred Securities and Income ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
0.00% Today
Reddit Posts
Valuing Semiconductor manufacturers and a look at INTC, AMD, TSM and MU
Buy Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT) before its earnings release (ER) today after close
Technical Analysis Series (3): Move it, Move it, Moving Averages
Mentions
If it, MU or any others down 20 percent were the SPY they would've been halted three times by now and stopped trading for the day by now. Our beloved MM's would also be getting invitations to testify before Congress about it as well. Even more insane is the 3 FPEs they are now trading for vs. others trading at a 30-40 FPE's and going up.
What bubble though? Besides TSLA and SPCX, what companies are significantly overvalued? NVDA now has a FPE of 15, as an example.
Great comment. SNDK dropped to a 2.8 FPE NFY this morning. MU was at a 3 FPE NFY. 85+ gross profit margins and LTAs out to 2031. I can't be the only one having a tough time buying more COST, WMT at 40-42 FPEs (NFY) with their 3 percent margins.
I learned to never judge memory chips based on any kind of PE. P/S below or near 1 means buy and wait but they got to dump the excess inventory first. When the neoclouds fail and all the H100s/HBMM hit the market that’s when you buy. A low FPE with margins in the high 80s was when I knew Micron did it again. You can’t improve margins much more and the memory cabal requires a ton of capex. They also pissed off most of their largest customers. Maybe they finally did it but I’m not interested in gambling on standardized components. I’m much more interested in photonic companies than the same old silicon transistors just stacked on top of each other because they can’t shrink them anymore. Semis are a cyclical business. If it’s different this time it’ll be because of something else. It took a decade of work and collaboration between Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix just to standardize HBMM. That’s a long lead time.
For NVDA, maybe, unless you look at their FPE of 13.5. But, for MU, absolutely not. MU has a PE of 13, and FPE of 5.4. Pretending that's price in is beyond absurd.
These are the investing strategies I come here to learn about. :) Are you looking for a CEO with Kardashian or Victoria's Secret model looks for your next investment? Just FYI, the Kardashians may be busy with their own companies. Do they have to chew gum and walk at the same time, or just one or the other? I hope that made you laugh a bit and sorry the stock is selling off so heavily today. It's a bit overdone. Just for fun, check out his history and watch a few of his interviews. As others kindly wrote, McDermott is a legend and the tech. industry is lucky he's still working, as he could've retired 10X by now. I hope the stock recovers quickly now that it's sold off to a 22 FPE NFY and wish you the best with your position.
Because they have been hammered and Elon secured $40B in funds to buy chips. MU's FPE is 5 and the trailing is 12 and they print money like crazy.
Aren’t they at 40PE ? Or is that FPE?
LONG VERSION: What's PE spiking look like? Will memory stock's PE "spike" up to 6 FPE from 2.9 FPE? Sorry I have to ask, but the memory stocks are priced so far below any fundamental reality at this point, but the chronically low valuations are such a slap in the face to those companies employees and long term investors, I do. I'm not claiming to be smarter than anyone else, we've just been hearing the same narratives quarterly from the same people for years now. The reason it seems like memory stock's have exploded is because the financial industry was so late to re-rate them up to any semblance of intrinsic value in the first place and they lagged for so long. Same with other hardware companies. The memory shortages were predicted long before the stock's prices caught up. So forgive me if I'm skeptical of those claiming a memory industry "collapse" while hyperscalers sign LTAs out to 2030-2035 and AI spend is predicted to be another Trillion+ next year---which starts in a few months. Eventually prices will normalize, but the structural demand for more compute and thus more memory isn't going away for years. And then there's the mushrooms. Researchers have been trying to make mushrooms into memory for a few years now. If that doesn't demonstrate the desperation for compute, I don't know what to tell you. :) Hope ALL that helps your confluence a bit or at least offers an alternative view. https://preview.redd.it/lm5zj5syw1wh1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=9947bd99cedae2ee844c0a7fd6f3bac65bb58bc0 Source: [https://ycm.group/mushrooms-as-materials-for-computer-chips/](https://ycm.group/mushrooms-as-materials-for-computer-chips/) SHORT VERSION: People getting paid to try to make mushrooms into memory doesn't suggest any "collapse" anytime soon. Prices will normalize at some point, but structural demand is here to stay.
If a stock's in a cyclical industry, should it be a priced lower than a 3 FPE? Is that the narrative we're going with? :) This could be why they've been buying back $30B of their own stock through Nov.
Your SKHY is now priced at a 3.9 FPE NFY. The other major memory stocks got munched down to 4-5FPEs. Hard to feel bad about owning any of them when they're priced like value/defensive stocks and the actual value stocks are trading at 35+ FPEs. Congrats. in advance on your profits. You deserve every cent after the last few weeks of shenanigans in that space.
Priced in.. there's already a very healthy dose of skepticism in the market . Like, Micron is at a 5 FPE.... Nvidia at 14 FPE... So no, those things aren't priced for continuous 70% growth like what just happened, it's priced for growth rate to crash. Also you forget the CUDA moat for Nvidia which is massive... TSMC has the china risk going on which takes a valuation haircut.. "So whatever prices they're able the command now will eventually level off to being just above the cost of the electricity and the depreciation." That's a pretty insane take lmao. Azure and AWS have insane growth at the moment so what you say isnt supported
Well an historic double beat on MU, they sit on a cash pile: $73.5 billion total. Debt is under $5.2 billion. Shareholders' equity $138 billion and yet management gave the confidence of a gravedigger. No one knows about buybacks that will happen this quarter and they should have guided it since ... I don't know they have $73B in cash and still have not asked the board for a larger authorization. This is why this stock trades with an FPE of 6.
people really looked at GOOG at 10 FPE and said "nah, it go down"
FPE. Also last year was at 23,5. It is less than 20 now.
No reason, they print $$$ like crazy and MU trades with a FPE of 6. There is plenty of reason. Sandisk just guided out to 2030 with double digit growth for years.
I was checking out OONA and stumbled across OSPN (OneSpan). 9.5 PE, 13.6 FPE, and pays a 3% dividend. Worth a deep dive into the fundamentals.
MU with a 5.5 FPE says WTF
MU baffled me when he still shorted @ $880. JFC dude its the most profitable company in the world you dolt. It spits out Benjamin's and has a 5 FPE. Not the time to double down on your short.
Have to agree with OP. SNDK opened at $1173 this morning. Thats a 4.49 FPE for FY28 analyst consensus. :) No idea how our beloved markets and the financial industry can continue to price the stock so low. MU too.
At $1,240 a share, SNDK's FPE is 5.85x to 6.6 based on EPS of $188-$212. It's current PE is trailing, based on the last 12 months.
Imagine selling a stock trading at a 5.49 NFY FPE, when they just guided to continued 84+ percent margins after growing revenues from $7B to $20B in ONE year. SNDK's EPS this FY is estimated to be higher than all the FANGMAN combined. Also higher than 497 of the other companies listed in the S&P 500.
Samsung, is like Apple & Amazon combined with the Korean discount. Currently at a FPE of 5.4 and a market cap of a trillion+ but ignore the FPE. Never buy a memory company with a low FPE. It’s not a bargain, it’s a trap.
Nvda at 18 FPE with 70 percent growth. You sure?
Meta at 15x FPE with 25%+ growth. Is this not the best deal of recent memory?
It has a forward PE of 4.5 and a PEG of .028. Insanely cheap by any measure. ARM has a FPE of 111.
NVDA has a forward PE of 21.68 and a PEG ratio of 0.37. GOOG has a forward PE of 16.51 and a PEG ratio of 0.95, META 17.99 FPE / 0.88 PEG, MST 20.39 FPE / 1.2 PEG. AMZN is slightly more expensive. AAPL is very overvalued at 38.83 forward PE and 2.94 PEG.
NVDA has a forward PE of 21.68 and a PEG ratio of 0.37. GOOG has a forward PE of 16.51 and a PEG ratio of 0.95, META 17.99 FPE / 0.88 PEG, MST 20.39 FPE / 1.2 PEG. AMZN is slightly more expensive. AAPL is very overvalued at 38.83 forward PE and 2.94 PEG.
IDK. NVDA has a forward PE of 21.68 and a PEG ratio of 0.37. GOOG has a forward PE of 16.51 and a PEG ratio of 0.95, META 17.99 FPE / 0.88 PEG, MST 20.39 FPE / 1.2 PEG. AMZN is slightly more expensive. AAPL is very overvalued at 38.83 forward PE and 2.94 PEG. Most of these companies are either very cheap, cheap or very comfortable buys. CapEX is not indefinite, just like redoing the roof in your house, there's a build-out phase and then the capex will slow down, although people are saying it will be like this for the next 100 years, that's not the case. What is true, is that their revenues are growing a lot.
That would've been at a 6-7 FPE when they're making $200-$212 EPS and $44B-$55B in revenues this fiscal year. :) Ouch.
Wow. I guess we're going to find out if a stock can trade at a 3 FPE after all? Crazy.
It's trading at a 5.3 FPE today and they're in FY27. Same as MU, though MU starts their FY27 in about a month (September.)
I guess SKHY trading at a 4 FPE into earnings was expensive too?
0 earnings in 2025. $200-$212 EPS this fiscal year. $44B in revenues next FY, which is the same as V. Also added to the SPY, QQQ and Fortune 500. Trading at a 5.3 FPE is absurd.
MU: 5.3 FPE. SNDK 5.3 FPE. SKHY: 4 FPE. COST: 43 FPE. T: 8 FPE. SPY: 20 FPE. So yes, they can and should, but will they and when? That's the rub. :)
But we guess SNDK is only worth a 5.3 FPE, even if they're making a higher EPS than all the FANGMAN combined next year? At $200-$212 EPS, they are also making more than 498 companies in the S&P 500, but trading at 1/4 the SPY's 20 FPE today.
Thats why SAP is an even bigger POS than msft. Its always fucking red at 18 FPE. Hopeless.
Extreme volatility in individual stocks typically leads to a broader correction but “rotation” into the undervalued and 💀 stocks like $T humming along with just enough cash flow to pay the dividend that’s been cut and pay off the interest on its $150 billion in bonds, rated DS for dog shit. In other words it’s like the USA. Extreme, out of control spending when rates are low to buy unnecessary assets like Time Warner because everyone knows that cell phone & fiber companies should TOTALLY be in content. Valuation of 6 FPE bc rates are most likely going to stay the same or go higher so they can’t pay their debt interest and neither can the US. Trump, “WHAT DO YOU MEAN WE CANT JUST CUT THE 30 YEAR To ZERO!! AT&T DID IT! I talked to the CEO and he said spinning off Time Warner was their Strait of Hormuz.” Somehow, dividend investors will still take a non growing 5.39% yield with a 16% YTD decline and whisper, “I’ve compounded for 20 years. My cost basis is down to….you wouldn’t understand.” Hey I’m going to k myself in Minecraft real quick.” That last sentence wasn’t fair $T investors aren’t an average age of 73 and are totally into Roblox these days.
MSFT has FPE lower than 20, it isnt cheap but far from expensive
META is forbidden from pumping. Send that shit to 15 FPE, oh wait we are already there
CRM, INTU, ADBE to name a few, but there are more. My favorite is NOW but still over 18FPE
Wall street is going to refuse to give this a forward PE of more than 13 - really only 9. What you are seeing here, right now is the move to Goldmans #'s for earnings. $22 a share and guide to 30% growth rate. At earnings is the stock is around $1225 and they hit that on the nose the stock won't do much and slowly rise up until the FPE is 9 again for next earnings. If they beat it then you take those #'s and calculate out the FPE of 9 and that will give you the price of the stock at next earnings. What everyone is looking for is the gross margins, the growth in areas like NAND that can speak to if they can meat guidance and if they are going to blow it out. Read the Yahoo finance boards there are some good people analyzing the stock who post.
Well nvda is one of the cheapest things to buy nowadays at 21 FPE...how the turntables.
I have some 20k cash and contemplating pouring it all into nvda. Its mentally difficult as it would fk up my avg price a lot (in the 130s currently) but its hard to imagine it will not shoot up from the current 21 FPE...its mad cheap and the market will jump on it at some point
The only way it makes sense is if it doesn't grow at those rates which would mean the FPE ratio isn't 30. If it does then it's insane.
So 22 FPE for a company like Microsoft is justifiable?
ADBE is probably the best investment right now. AI officially a Scam, ADBE FPE at 10x, another $25 Billion stock buy back, that’s 25% of its total value. ADBE Revenue is solid and growing at 12%. FireFly is commoditizing AI, charging credits for AI and already profitable, growing at 65% with over 6million user monthly. Open AI shut down SORA (lost over a billion and not profitable) Opportunities is calling is up to you to answer!
Those are FPE and not P/E ratios..
This has been answered. They are both forward PE. One is a 12mo FPE and the other is a 24mo FPE.
I'm with those who say these will at least double. What's that old adage about ORCL stock? Never bet against their fourth quarter results? Also helps that ORCL's traded down to 17 FPE multiples and MSFT is down to 19. Were you supposed to buy WMT or COST shares at double ORCL and MSFT's valuation?:) OpenAI's ad monetization pilot results are out, and that stock is valued at $728 on the private markets. You also got confirmations Stargate Michigan is also on track today as shown below. ORCL also announced recent Medicaid, Medicare, Pentagon, and too many other government contracts to list here just today along with job cuts. Congrats. in advance and sorry you're taking any heat at all on this one. https://preview.redd.it/1i6hanvfoesg1.png?width=1073&format=png&auto=webp&s=457a59b269a4703c98e68f77422303296d71f661
Never buy Micron at a low PE. That means they have maxed out their margins and are treated as an electronic commodity. Best to buy when earnings are negative so high or non-existent FPE or margins are expanding. Indicates a new base in memory prices.
A little bit of a stretch to go back 3-4 years to claim it’s a great buying opportunity. Who cares about 4 years and and that pricing? We’re in 2026 I’ve never invest in SOFI because it’s overvalued and has been for a while. But why is it every financial YouTuber is talking about SOFI, a company trading at rich valuations proclaiming it’s something amazing when nobody I know in real life has ever heard of it. YouTubers are bought out and the sheer volume of them that talk about SOFI on any dip feels paid for. Since 2025 it’s a trash speculative stock that is significantly overvalued but have a very good marketing team/strategy. Well Fargo forward Pe 11 JP Morgan forward PE 13 Bank of Murica FPE 10.5 SOFI Forward Pe 32 Why would I pay 3x for a small bank with significantly higher risks over 3 quality bank stocks with a proven history of surviving the worst financial crises
They are a profiting business that has already compressed to sub-20 FPE, despite at worst growing users at 20% YoY. You can absolutely not buy the upside story, but there’s not much downside to be had from this point and how flush they are with cash/positive cash flow. The risk and atrocious sentiment is priced in. Worst case for Duolingo, they get bought out by Alphabet or Anthropic or OpenAI if they get serious about education as a business model. There’s no reason any of those companies wouldn’t take the opportunity of Duolingo’s large and growing user base to immediately capture 85% market share. Disclosure: I’m holding just over 60 shares of Duolingo. I absolutely believe that they are going to either do okay (which would be a significant win) or reaccelerate user growth and match their 100 million DAU target by 2028 (which is a 10x opportunity). In the case it is the slow steady growth, I’m happy with ‘just’ 15/20% compounding growth. Either way I do expect it to take years for the company’s future to become evident and for market sentiment to shift
Great post. Thanks for the perspective. And Friday, NVDA closed at a 16.3 FPE next fiscal year.
NVDA has traded down to a 16.9 FPE next FY. For context, SPY is 23.6 FPE. XLK is 30.67 FPE, QQQ is 24-30 FPE, and INDUSTRIALS are 30+ FPE depending on the source one uses. Can't make this stuff up.
True makes sense. Crazy that MSFT has 22 FPE and COST is 48 (WMT 44.5). Everybody chasing defensives lately
SMCI's currently trading at a 9.8 FPE and $17.5B market cap. For context, that market cap is so low, it's less than 1/2 of the $36B revenues analysts expect for FY26, which ends in June 30, 2026. :) xAI's Colossus 2 (https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/i/174558672/colossus-2-from-zero-to-200mw-in-six-months) is also training as of mid January. SMCI also just told us they're increasing rack capacity to 6K a month by June. Wishing you the best with your positions. https://preview.redd.it/s4p7zbd97jgg1.jpeg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed19e657969437eb10a254797504dfeb8ffed822
And that’s with a FPE of 30-40. Industrial average for AI tech company.
Valuations have been so high for so long that FPE of 20ish is considered a discount? We're cooked.
60% EPS growth. means that if the SP stays at its current level its forward PE would be a 17. TO maintain a FPE between 23-25 the SP would have to be around 288. I believe EPS will grow around 50-65% yoy. Especially with significantly more penetration into foreign markets like saudi arabia, india, potentially china, and europe. Robotics will be realized next year and powered on NVDA and AMD chips
Economy gets fucked, government prints money. Inflate everything. Companies charge more because things cost more profits go back up, FPE revised back higher, stocks pump. We're at the point where recessions are speeding up, coming every 5-7 years instead of 10-15. Governments create endless money and Inflate their debt away to afford interest payments. Is there a bubble? Sure, but let's not pretend that any market crash is going to last more than 6-9 months. If you get in at a decent cost basis and don't pick poop companies with bad balance sheets or imaginary revenue. You can eat a 35% drop in your port and hold out until it goes green a year later. Maybe this sub can't since everyone is jacked to the tits on 0DTEs lmao. Imo the AI bubble fear mongering is overblown.
At a macro level, let me explain the thesis you seem to be missing: \> Economy gets fucked \> Consumers have less discretionary income \> Companies return on ad spend plummets \> META, GOOGL revenue plummets and first thing to go is CAPEX (read, GPU spend) \> NVIDIA revises forecasts down all of a sudden your forward P/Es don't look so reasonable. There's a reason FPE is forward and not realized, that's the threat Anyways, I'm not retarded enough to buy NVDA puts (COF, ALLY, MGM, LUV puts are very on the table though) but your prices are not extreme theory misses the primary threat vector
Some much data is not present in this crayon math of a post: RPOs, sovereign infra, datacenters outside of USA, long etc. Want to make it simple? Check the supply chain: - RAM and storage markets are white hot -- smartphone makers only have memories for a few weeks, too expensive to negotiate for more -- spot prices for memories are being suspended ATM - ODMs (Hon Hai, Quanta, etc) increasing capacity and forecast - Jensen begging for more wafers at TSMC -- CoWoS is at capacity, more coming -- 3nm at capacity, and they can only increase a bit - Taiwan had 144% exports increase to the states, second largest in history Do all the napkin math you want about PE, FPE or PEEPEE, but the truth is in the pudding Bonus: (not added to the previous list because I can't verify this) one side analyst, John Vinh from KeyBanc (with 60% success rate) is reporting that hopper orders where increased, the rationale is that china is ordering some back again.
Tbf those who believe there is over investment in AI argue that growth in AI spend is going to come to a screeching halt as one or more of the hyperscalers decide they are not going to see the kind of returns they originally expected. In that case FPE tells us literally nothing besides "at this exact moment, if growth continues as we expect, NVDA is not really overvalued."
Nvidia FPE is 30 Broadcom FPE is 38 Costco FPE is 45 Walmart FPE is 35 Tech is still behind Retail here.
These are not comparable,PLTR is subjectively expensive but had 63% yoy growth, increasing margings net profits and a rule of 40 of 114 which literally unheard of, yes maybe growth rates will stall at some point but this gives the crazy PE. TSLA has a decaying business, compression of margins, it got saved by the US tax credit last quarter but nex one you will see revenue falling and less car sales. A crazy CEO that wants a 1 Trillion pay package and lives of a robotaxis and humanoid future that might not materialize for the next decade. Keep in mind, that factually Waymo is ahead of tesla on robotaxis and china has as impressive humanoid robots as tesla for a fraction of the cost but still trades at FPE of 250...
Imagine that their product helps healthcare reduce sepsis case by 30%, decrease panasonic days to perfomance of new hires by months, increase peoductivity of airbus by more than 10%, decrease bp cost per barrel by multiple dollars, increase lethality and autonomy of ukrainian armed forces drones, etc wtc etc Oh wait...you dont need to imagine it. Amazon, apple, msft were all 500+pe back in the days. PE is a past looking metric and doesnt account for accelerating growth. Even the 1 year FPE doesnt mean shit...they beat on earnings amd guidance every time
Thanks for the post. Just to add to what other kindly wrote, MELI. After a recent pullback, it's oversold, trading at less than 1/2 it's 5 year avg. fwd. FPE and trailing PE today. While it's incorporated in the US, only 60 percent of the markets MELI serves even has a broadband internet connection. (Investing in AMZN when the US had those stats worked out nicely for investors.) MELI's also been investing heavily in infrastructure while all LOBs continue to grow at astonishing rates, especially their fintech arm. Citi just put them on their catalyst watch list. Their recent promo with OpenAI and announcements they are getting into the pharmacy business had little impact on the stock. I buy on any 10+ percent dips, especially when it underperforms the SPY which is rare. Hope that helps your confluence a bit.
Well, I've posted some DD posts on this sub, you can look at those to get an idea. But those are of course simplified for a general audience. In very short, a DD should concise of: * Valuation, check if P/S, PE, FPE etc are within normal ranges for the industry. Buying a great company at an awful valuation still makes it a horrible investment. * Growth: Are the numbers that should be going up going up, consistently, * Cash flows: Do they have plenty of cash, is cash coming in? Can they finance their own operations without raising cash (usually by dillution). Dilution is fine, if it's for growth, it's not fine if it's to keep the lights on. * Upcoming milestones: Is there anything coming that might be a catalyst? What are the odds of those, are there already writings on the wall that they're going to reach that milestone. And is it STILL a good buy if they WOULDN'T reach that milestone/catalyst? The last one is why, for example, I stay away from biotech stocks, they ALL are 'weeks away' from the next phase trials, but there's no way to know if the phase will conclude successfully, and if it fails, and it usually does with biotech, most often, the company is dead in the water. Not that biotechs are bad, but then they'd have to already be very strong in the other categories.
I thought the stocks associated with Leucovorin may do better as insurance will cover the drug once the new use is added to the label. They're also inexpensive as TEVA is trading at a 6.8 FPE, while GSK is at an 8.41 FPE.
I am using equity growth as the basis, so possibly that. But I think the FPE or PEG might work. Thanks.
Yes there is. When a professional analysts reviews company they often provide 2-3 year eps and revenue estimates. Many websites will compile these... Zachs is an example of this. eg for Adobe [https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ADBE/detailed-earning-estimates](https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ADBE/detailed-earning-estimates) This includes next year and the next five years annualized. Frankly...I like the composite estimates on finviz to be better. They'll provide a 5 year CAGR eps growth estimate on the main page...but also really cool averaged eps estimates (and revenue) on their financials page. eg for Adobe: [https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ADBE&p=d&ty=ea](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ADBE&p=d&ty=ea) The blue bars are actual eps...and the grey bars estimates. You can see how accurate analysts have been , what they project in the future and how many believe this. Seeking Alpha also compiles future projections. But they just reword these differently...basically a 1 year forward pe, 2 year FPE, 3 year, etc... Below that is the annual eps growth rate sometimes into 2028. eg for Adobe: [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADBE/valuation/metrics](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADBE/valuation/metrics) Be careful with these analysts projections. Sometimes the estimates they are based off are "stale"...because of this sometimes recent analysts upgrades or downgrades can be signifant because they are "fresh".
Im not saying it isnt helpful but it is speculative, as it relies on estimates which can be subject to bias and miscalculations. PE isnt any more irrelevant than FPE is, because past results dont gaurantee future results - just like no one can predict what an earnings per share will be one year from now
FPE is based upon analyst estimates, which represent Wall Street consensus. No one has a crystal ball, but the average of several dozen analysts (if not 50+ in most cases) is an extremely helpful data point. Speculation is when one buys a stock with zero fundamentals to support their thesis.
FPE is entirely speculative, thought
PE is backwards-looking (12 months). The market is always forward looking, hence FPE - Forward Price/Earnings Ratio - is imminently more valuable and useful than P/E ratio.
I can't answer any better than Leading\_Load5505. Just wanted to add the stock is currently trading at a 7.4 FPE. For context, the current SPY FPE is 3ish times that at 21.
FPE is now 7.9. Congrats if you own it at these levels. :)
Love the restaurant...hate the valuation. They have a forward PE of 129.33. For reference 29 FPE can be high for some companies...but 129 FPE is jaw dropping. I had AI do the math based on their store count and it just doesn't add up. Their growth recently spiked because they were able to purchase Zoes Kitchens and convert them to Cava's. But now that this trick is done growth will slow down. The hedge funds which have done the math on the stock are shorting it heavily (13.55%). IMO the stock will crash and there will be better entry points in the future for what otherwise is a quality company...but with hideous evaluations.
It’s the biggest health insurer in the country. They will probably fill up the boat with expense reserves and wipe out all their EPS in 2025. Average estimate is $26 for 2026. This maybe too high. Lowest diluted EPS past 3 years is $18. That is probably worst case scenario for 2026. I’d say you average these figures and $21 in diluted EPS FOR 2026 is very attainable. They will grow off that EPS figure. Thats a 14 FPE. Not many SPY components trading this cheaply. I have 40 shares and plan to add more but they could retest the low when they release their next report and disclose that they will not have any earnings in 2025. Buy low sell high.
not financial advice. GOOG looking attractive at these FPE and PE levels. Also doesn't Google give chrome away free? that isn't likely to cause an enormous dent in earnings. So much as it will be a boon to competitor who can monetize the browsing history. But doj saying keep AI investments and give away your browser big whoop. My guess is they still know what you're looking at via cookies . . . Oh yeah you're all a bunch of degenerates too so no surprise there 
NVDA trading at less than 20 FPE
NVDA is trading at 25X FPE. In the absence of artificial, shoot your self in the foot tariffs. We are pumping astronomically.
I love Axon the company but their stock is still trading at very high multiples, 110 PE now and 80 FPE.
I agree - stocks that are at the right price are few and far between. It’s hard to find right now. This is why Buffett has such a huge hoard of cash - his largest in a couple of decades. I like GOOGL at 21x PE, NVDA at 30x FPE, MU at a PEG ratio of 0.20. Also bought a little Amazon and META during this mini downturn. I like PLTR and SNOW long term, but not at these multiples. I also like TSM but again think it’s a bit overvalued.
Only GOOG has a lower FPE than NVDA in Mag7...growing at 80% per year. Go figure
This is what so many people miss. If you want good returns, you need good companies at fair or under value. Take AMZN and GOOGL last year, good returns last year because the stocks were trading significantly below their fair value. And for this year, UBER ran up 30% already because it was deeply undervalued. As a value investor, I've avoided MSFT and AAPL because it was overvalued based on PE, FPE, PEG.
You can’t compare CVNA to PLTR. It’s not just P/E. CVNA has a PE of 3300+, FPE of 100+ but PS of 2.5 and FPS of 3.7 On the other hand PLTR has a PE of 600+, FPE of 200+ yet PS of 90+ and FPS of 69+ If you had to short one, which one would you short based on these facts?!
GOOGL is fucking cheap right now with 19 FPE stop dumping and start hoarding you regards  (Gemini 2.0 is actually good and cheaper than deepseek cope )
Several points that every doomsayer and panic-monger seem to overlook are: 1. This change only affects scaling. 500 billion units of GPU power are still far superior to 500 million. The demand for GPUs remains strong; the difference is that you now get significantly more value for your investment. The profitability of paid LLMs will soar, even after price reductions. 2. If everyone can now own a highly efficient LLM, it creates an entirely new wave of potential customers who currently don’t own any GPUs but will need them in the future. This is indeed a disruption, but it’s not a negative one, nor does it mark the end of the line. It certainly doesn’t justify drastic market reactions like a 20% drop, let alone something extreme like 40%. Such a drop would result in a FPE of around 6, making it an absolute no-brainer to buy — and it’s already a strong buy right now. TL;DR: Nvidia (despite its obvious bias) is correct in stating that this development will ultimately drive even more GPU demand. The improved scaling only enhances the value proposition for Nvidia’s customers.
FPE is closer to 40. $2.95 EPS on $120 share price. Also, the problem is the FPE is assuming massive revenue growth and margins on those sales. Any hit to that top line growth will badly damage EPS. The market is forward looking and right now the concern is that the estimates might be too high.
This. So many people struggle with understanding PE. High PE’s are often fine for rapidly growing companies and accelerating earnings. Their PE is 22 and FPE is increasing to 28. To give this perspective… if stock stayed flat, their PE gets worse. If PE stays flat, their stock price shrinks.
At this point, every up day I’m selling portions of big winners which includes SOFI and PLTR. I’m not selling all at once because you can’t time the market but I am taking chunks off the table because I agree it feels like it’s run too much. I’m keeping the cash or re-investing into stocks I feel are cheap, more value based low FPE. But yeah, things feel frothy and the bozos are everywhere calling for 10x after 10x. Someone will be holding the bag and it won’t be me, at least not a full bag!
APPL and NVDA are kinda expensive but it isn't fair to lump those with TSLA which have absurd PE and FPE ratios. MSTR on the other hand is a ticking time bomb buying up a useless asset during peak world conditions.
I have yet to see a solid bear case for MSTR. It survived FTX, and has the same FPE as NVDA (34) and perfectly reasonable debt/equity ratio of 1. Not many know about Finance on here, just hyperbolic reddit knowitall vague doom scroller comments?
It has a FPE over 110, which is high for a stock. It has to maintain that high FPE and maintain the high growth expectations (currently 85%) to maintain value. If people start selling, the FPE will drop. If it doesn't meet earnings, it probably will drop. It has a lot of room to drop. If you hold, it should be with money set aside to buy more if it dips down unless you are up a lot and willing to sit on a loss because you think earnings and FPE will eventually balance out in a few years. SPGI rates it as low quality which I don't like about it (meaning it will likely struggle to continue the same growth).
Silly indicator, the FPE was over 1000 a few years ago.
The OP is wasting his time. PLTR will have a 1000 FPE and still keep going to the moon. The fundamental target is 1000000000000 FPE. You don't understand the ontology of my cosmology. 100% Buzz light year in with loans in my kids names too.