GCC

Ill_Ground_1572

Because the market is full of greed right now. But if the US wipes out Irans energy infrastructure and they in turn wipe out GCC energy infrastructure, the world is in big big big time shit. The great depression was a system collapse. This would be a molecule collapse. If it goes forward, and I hope it doesn't, were in bigger trouble than the stock market.

beginner75

This would force the GCC to join hitting Iran which is the eventual outcome.

StrategicallyLazy007

Not really sure why you think it's in Israel's interest to strike GCC countries oil and gas infrastructure

Fauster

I checked this AM and options prices were pretty close to spot. Unless stocks drop a bunch, there is no need for MM's to push markets up. If markets rally, the MM may try to push them down. I don't know their exact book. There might be trouble in Korea when Aug 5 looms and retail traders need the equivalent of $20k us cash in their account to buy leveraged 2x or 3x funds, so why wouldn't you buy more stock instead? This means a slow suck of money out of these ETFs, which hold Samsung and Hynix, where drag semis around via correlation the algos see. Oil and fertilizer stocks are strongish today, the biggest predictor of escalating weekend kinetic action. Nothing happens in this admin without big money moving money before the news prints. Yesterday's big rally is a needed precondition for markets to recover, but we don't always get V-shaped bottoms. If Trump starts taking out desal plants, more bridges and rail transport, and takes down the grid around Ban dar Abbas, Iran just warned that 1) It can hit a tanker crossing the Suez if they get a little lucky vs a static target. 2) they can take out the Yanbu pipeline, with 5-7 Mbpd flow, but the port can only offload \~4M bpd. Iran's asymmetric actions against GCC countries when Trump attacks Iran is the one thing that has advisers warning Trump not to go full Regard. Not investment advice. Have a diversified book. Don't trade on margin. You don't need to. Don't trade any 2x or 3x funds, they all exponentially decay to zero and reverse split. Never let the MM or trading on margin force your hand, let it force other people's hands. With a barbell, you can always decide to take on concentration risk of the algos or current events make the bottom fall out. This is the summer slump and it is not supposed to be peak slump this early. If you were going yachting, you would derisk too.

Fauster

There were massive foreign outflows in Korea that I didn't initially understand, but Wall Street knew that the Korean government was going to go more nanny state on Korean markets. I think 2x and 3x funds are toxic, but I still want them so I don't have to worry about wide spreads after a flash crash. Algos drive most of the market, and to the Algos, MU, my favorite stock still, should move in tandem with Korean memory via many pairs trades frameworks. Every crisis is an opportunity though. Wall Street got out because of the Aug 5th cliff and new Korean market regulations to hamstring retail, in my opinion. It took me a week to figure out why big money fled Korea. None of this helps Korea get out of emerging market baskets and into MSCI, which is really what they need. They might go even less free market and crack down on shorting. Who knows. They still suffer from 1998 Asian Contagion shell shock currenty-protection and market protection policies. These are policies that sound good on paper, but I think they only make volatility worse. I will be following foreign inflows into Korea, when they happen. Hedge funds are usually a bit ahead of me, but they have SOTA research. There is always a chance that Wall Street will buy the news shortly before or shortly after the Aug. 5 leveraged fund cliff. Another concern, we have been talking about the top end of the K hanging in there and still buying, supporting the economy, while the bottom 80% has been reducing its spending. I think Asia and the Mid East have shown signs of top-end stress. Luxury purchases are way down in GCC countries, predictably, but also in Asia. We are draining our SPR at record rates, though from near-record levels. China has stopped buying oil at scale, they have the biggest SPRs by far. When the US drain the SPR stimulus goes away, that could be real trouble and a real liquidity crisis. We see blowouts in AI complex CDS spreads, but no broader debt contagion, but, in a liquidity crisis, fundamentals won't shield you from short term losses. Wall street is back into IGV, the funding source for semis, and bidding up healthcare and Oil and fertilizer stocks, a standard flight-to-safety book. But big picture, a lot of cash flow machines with ramping top and bottom lines and ramping margins (all of memory right now from HBM to hard drives). The ramp in memory names perfectly coincided with the ramp in use of agentic frameworks. Is the first order signal (Anthropic makes more money every quarter) going down? If no, every crisis is an opportunity if you can hold risk long enough.

Thehealthygamer

Well there's not a damn thing the US or GCC can do about it, as has been proven in the last few months, so, iran will infact control the strait.

Sufficient-Skill9530

I don’t get you guys, do you think the only thing that exists is the abstraction of physical reality you experience through your computer screen? How many Russian refineries, oil terminals and tankers have been destroyed by Ukraine? What about infrastructure destroyed in the GCC? How much oil and products are transiting Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb? SPRs are being drawn to unsustainable levels and there’s no meaningful cushion left. China is restarting its teapot refineries to capture the current unprecedented crack spreads. Trumph and the Mossad outlet, Axios, can pump out endless fake news articles about an impending deal but none of that changes the physics of the situation. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

Just buy integrated oil producers like Exxon and Suncor. It doesn’t matter if the brainlet wants to TACO or not, too many GCC and Russian refineries are offline, integrated oil producers benefit from high oil prices and/or high crack spreads.

ActivatingEMP

Same sarticle also said Pakistan won't open negotiations unless they stop bombing the GCC and Saudis. Good luck with that without opening the strait, which would just mean they lose

Foriegn_Picachu

The US knew the GCC didn’t have the appetite for war and here we are

-Cthaeh

China likely had the largest oil reserves and possibly still does. They massively reduced imports when the strait closed to protect their exports. It would take quite awhile, with much larger events in the MEast to seriously disrupt China. The GCC and other sources, as well as much of the world, benefit by getting China oil.

Own-Recipe5908

GCC is probably overjoyed to be asked to pay the people who caused the problem in the first place.

Silver-Charming

US won, because Iran can do nothing significant with their shitty rockets. Strait blockage starts to be problem for Iran's oil export because GCC have bypass routes by pipelines. At this time export of natural gas, helium and fertilizers from persian gulf is the problem. It will not tank broad economy like crude shortage can. Iran will fold

Silver-Charming

It will if oil goes up. For oil to go up Iran must retaliatate and attack GCC. If they dont do this eow it means their threats mean nothing. They must decide to either fire the world or surrender. In my opinion they will surrender. Their military power is unsufficient to harm GCC (like destroying pipelines that bypasses SoH transport) and they know this. We will have peace talk in Pakistan in incoming week.

Ajenthavoc

How? Pipe it to the red sea where houthies can shut down the bab al mandab? Or pipe it to the Mediterranean through unstable Syria or Israel, in the direction of Hezbollah and away from their primary Asian markets? They can get as creative as they want, in the end the Gulf is a critical access for the GCC countries and Iran has shown that it's reach is regional. These countries will struggle, but since Mar 1st, we haven't even seen Iran respond in a way that is on par with their True Promise 2 attack back in 2024. Why? Probably has to do with timing of the spr drawdown which is still going down 5-7 MMbbl weekly.

Sufficient-Skill9530

Kharg island has been hit. Fuuuuuuck. Oil is going to moon after Iran responds against GCC infrastructure and closes Hormuz totally again. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

Question is, what does Iran do? Iran and the GCC seem to be on better terms, so it’s unlikely that Iran retaliates on gulf infrastructure. They could attack a US ship, but that is a big escalation.  You know what I have been thinking about, did you know that Israel produces like 95% of the bromine that Taiwan and South Korea use for their chips? If Iran wants to wreck the global economy they don’t need to impact crude oil, if Iran hits ICL Sodom, in Israel’s southern desert, the AI build out is wrecked. Such a crazy single point of failure. 

BigMisterLawyerDude

Israel ended up costing the U.S. And its GCC slaves $300 billion. Calls I guess

not_my_monkeys_

Do you really believe that Trump hasn’t already won this war because he hasn’t cared to try hard enough? Or because he’s afraid of international judgement? Come on now. He expended the vast majority of the US stockpile of advanced missiles and missile interceptors, pushed the US stock market to the edge of collapse, and Iran’s regime held on until Trump lost his nerve and backed off. Twice now, including today. The only way to remove the regime is with a massive ground invasion, which is unthinkable. Sure, we could genocide the whole country at any time. Power plants and desalination plants are their weak point. But before they died, they would do the same to the infrastructure of the surrounding GCC countries, and thus demolish the global economy. It’s mutually assured economic destruction.

tripping_on_phonics

This war with Iran is the worst strategic defeat in the history of the United States. We have: \- Wrecked our relationships with GCC countries \- Wrecked our relationships with allies in Europe and Asia, who suffer economically through no fault of their own \- Significantly and permanently diminished our imperial influence in the Middle East \- Tied our international reputation to that of Israel, which is increasingly viewed as a pariah \- Largely exhausted our inventory of standoff munitions and interceptor missiles \- Transformed the Strait of Hormuz from an open waterway into an Iran-administered waterway \- Exposed the fact that we are unable to defeat Iran, a middle power with significantly less resources \- Exposed the fact that our concept of warfighting is completely insufficient against more significant adversaries, like China \- Exposed the fact that our massive investment in military spending was a waste, and easily opposed by significantly cheaper weapons systems \- Undermined our credible military deterrence \- Undermined our diplomatic credibility \- Severely damaged the world economy …I can go on. There is simply no version of this that makes Trump look good.

ResponsibleAnt8049

and he’s being fr too. GCC will be cooked.

ResponsibleAnt8049

!banbet GCC & Iranian infrastructure in shambles 1W

Mallev

Plus all the oil infra in the GCC would be kinda broken by then. Wouldn’t be any oil to ship anyway.

ResponsibleAnt8049

infrastructure strikes on iran, and then the GCC gets the same in retaliation.

Tall-Illustrator543

Netanyahu and Trump working on getting GCC countries into the fight. Nightmare fuel

DREAMS_OF_BOKEH

This is strange bc most of America's petrol products come from Canada not the GCC... where can you link this info?

julian_jakobi

But one is not buying then. It’s today at a laughable market cap of below $40 Million. Price is what you pay and value is what you get. Five material updates in roughly 100 days. The progress is real and and I believe the validation through global partners will result in rocketing revenues: ✅ Lake Stockholm AEC install - done. January 27, 2026. Live. In the ground. Under NJDEP & EPA monitoring. First real-world municipal PFAS deployment. ✅ Clyra first stocking order - secured February 2026 through Advanced Solution’s national US distribution network. Hospitals. Clinics. Revenue starting. ✅ Clyra Al Hikma deal - signed May 5, 2026. Exclusive Middle East + North Africa distribution for ViaCLYR™. GCC, Levant, and adjacent markets. ✅ $1.2M Minerals Contract signed - April 20, 2026 BioLargo Engineering providing its expertise in designing and engineering the pilot-scale facility. ✅ New MOU signed - May 3, 2026. Another AEC partnership in motion (Aquatech) + revenues started to recover from Q4 lows.

Opposite_Day_9771

They are moving some by rail up north via the stans. I'm not sure how much capacity they have. It's a game of chicken to see who folds first. My bet would be the GCC. 90% of the population in some areas are expats. Citizens are all rich living the high life. Iranians would eat dirt if they have to. They are not going to cave and will hold out for a good deal.

DesticularDorsion

I've been saying. After the hajj, we probably go hot again. He can't have missiles flying through Saudi airspace when there are pilgrims trying to return home. He would alienate all the Sunnis in the GCC.

wafflingzebra

hardware design licensing has to be one of the world's worst rackets. All this money to essentially use the hardware equivalent of GCC (a verilog compiler), nevermind additional licenses for things like timing analysis, PD routing and placement, DFT insertion, power analysis, even waveform viewers.

Icy_Jelly_315

Yeah the very confident word was 6 months ago that a gazillion petrodollars was going to get invested in AI by the GCC nations to keep the bubble going. That is out of the window and US mom n pop retirement accounts have to step up and fill the gap

FirstAtEridu

After the GCC, Turkey, China, the EU, the Soviet Union, the Centauri Republic, Ferengi Alliance and Mordor who's left who else needs to be part of the deal? I just want to make some money...

fools_eye

[](https://www.reddit.com/user/UNEXPECTED_PREQUEL/)🥭 is now forcing the GCC to sign onto the Abraham Accords after the Iran deal. LMAOOO saudi might as well sabotage the deal themselves

13jfncjai31

Yes, if the US cannot credibly protect the GCC states from attacks and guarantee the free and open passage of international shipping what incentive does anyone have to use dollars as the global currency? Thats the trade, US keeps oceans safe and the world uses dollars. The deal is not being held up on our end, hence bond market yields skyrocketing. A bum deal maybe makes line go up temporarily, but structurally it would erode the US global standing and instigate our debt spiral. If we leave and make a bum deal with Iran, that doesn’t mean Israel takes it sitting down. Israel will go gloves off against Iran and probably blow up Kharg, south pars, everything. The Iranian response will be so severe the US will have to reengage kinetically just to save the gulf from extinction. We’re talking Iranian strikes on nuclear plants, desal plants, all oil infrastructure, the Red Sea strait probably closed too, activating the global terror network. It’s going to be ugly, and reality will catch up to markets eventually whether they like it or not. When it comes to bond market vs equity market the bond market wins every time

Provolone-Jones

lol my original point is that permanent damage is unlikely as evidenced by 2020 shut ins. Then you asked ChatGPT, which proves my point that the alternatives to the GCC are limited, thereby leading to shut ins. The remainder of your AI slop is just “Iran is dumber than the GCC”

Adii2311

You have the confidence of a politician and the knowledge of doorknob but you made me learn something new more deeply so thanks. Key DifferencesTechnical Vulnerability: Iran’s wells are generally more mature and have lower pressure than those in the GCC. Shutting them down carries a high risk of permanent reservoir damage, as waxy substances like paraffins can clog the pipes and rock pores during a halt. Resource Access: The GCC has access to the world’s top petroleum engineering firms to safely manage "shut-ins" and eventual restarts. Iran, under heavy sanctions, lacks the specialized equipment and expertise to prevent long-term damage during a prolonged shutdown. Storage Limits: Iran is estimated to have only 12 to 22 days of storage left before it is physically forced to stop pumping. In contrast, some GCC members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited alternative routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, though nations like Qatar and Kuwait are as stranded as Iran

Provolone-Jones

Lmao you realize pipelines have a maximum capacity and that GCC countries have already implemented shut-ins, right? Oh wait, you don’t.

Provolone-Jones

Assuming that is true (unlikely it is) the same permanent damage is already occurring to the other GCC countries, thereby making the drop to $90 all the more inexplicable.

FeaturePotential4562

It’s not the same problem: it’s substantially worse. GCC countries are wondering why they host US bases if that only makes them a target, but doesn’t grant them any input on US middle East policy, and it’s clear the US can’t or won’t defend them if attacked. Iran may ban their exports if they are sold in USD, and that puts in danger the petrodollar. Luckily China doesn’t seem to be interested in Yuan being the global currency. Israel has been exposed as being overly aggressive and ambitious. The first week of the attack they were talking about how Turkey is now the enemy. They are looking more and more like an inviable state as is. Europe is wondering why their major ally seems to work overtime against its interests. Europeans are itching to move closer East and reduce the exposure to unstable American chicaneries. South Korea and Japan are deeply hurting. They are applying painful measures to reduce oil demand and are considering how to reduce US army presence on their land.

tinydisaster

Absolutely, but kinda looks like GCC doesn’t want their shit blown to hell either.

DesticularDorsion

I'm sure all the financial stress on the GCC and Asia won't fuck up the treasury market. US is cooked. I hope the strait stays closed. 

ActivatingEMP

They need either the tolls or nukes. The GCC will not tolerate tolls as it allows Iran to control the oil market, and the US and Israel will not tolerate nukes. We are in a double bind because there are too many involved parties with different wants

e-alromaithi

Yeah so banks in GCC advertise rates as “fixed-rate” rather than reducing rate so you would have to convert that to a reducing rate which is more reflective on how exactly the bank will deduct interest/profit from the monthly EMI. 2.7% fixed Would be sub 5% reducing I guess.

ResponsibleAnt8049

lol in addition to all vital GCC infrastructure being targeted by EOW, nearly all fed members signaled hikes yesterday.

LarryStink

GCC oil money -> us bonds/bills (denominated in USD) cash equivalent.  That liquidity is gone as shut ins and damaged infrastructure halts production and hormuz closure removes export capabilities.  Net Oil importers (Japan, and most of asia, Europe, Aus, etc.) Scrambling for dollars to fund increasing energy costs(mostly denominated in USD) sell assets to fund liabilities. Mostly US bonds stocks and gold.   This is the current regime we are in for the foreseeable future.

Ambivalent28

The difference from the tarrifs event is to reverse tarrifs really all he had to say is "nah, we ain't doing that". Here, the US already has troops, weapons, the navy etc. in the middle east + he has to rein in Israel from Lebanon to settle things with Iran + the GCC countries (esp UAE) are furious. It's significantly harder and more delicate than just stating "ok, the Iran war is over" and everything goes back to normal. Plus, its very hard to claim a victory of any kind after doing that. Even if the Strait were to "open" tomorrow, to get ships through and oil back to pre-war levels will take months.

ResponsibleAnt8049

historic volatility expansion due to the targets presented in iran’s retaliation. All GCC desalination plants, power plants, oil infrastructure, everything up in flames.

LordFaquaad

Trump might be bluffing but the people in his administration arent. They want China to bleed. Yes the US will bleed but theyre betting on China bleeding more. The US is trying to find an edge over China sknce they control rare earth metals and itll take the US a decade to catch up in production/ refining. I dont expect this to be over anytime soon. The administration is willing to sacrifice the GCC and OPEC for energy leverage over China

digbickrich

US has military in bases and CIA in hotels in the GCC. Also recently came out that UAE was sneaky and bombing Iran quietly.

Odaskills

$AERT Aeries Technology Launches A1 GCC, an Agentic AI-Driven Operations Platform for Global Capability Centers

Slow-Information-847

y'all, buy crude is the only right trade. 2 nuclear plants got hit in 24 hours, this war is far from over. Even we keep the cease fire, GCC will be busy fighting each other.

LarryStink

I think we are seeing exactly that. But there is a growing likelyhood that dollar retains its strength while bonds and stocks suffer. Countries who are net short energy, (eur, asia, aus) are being forced to liquidate everything to buy oil. Gold, us stocks and bonds. And they also have to convert to dollars to buy the oil. The bond sales also lend to dollar strength and gold weakness. Not a very pretty picture considering the one-sided nature of positioning in both the dollar fx shorts and gold longs. Dollar will continue to massively outperform other currencies until GCC oil moves freely. 

julian_jakobi

$BLGO the progress is real and not reflected in the price at all: ✅ Lake Stockholm AEC install - done. January 27, 2026. Live. In the ground. Under NJDEP & EPA monitoring. First real-world municipal PFAS deployment. ✅ Clyra first stocking order - secured February 2026 through Advanced Solution’s national US distribution network. Hospitals. Clinics. Revenue starting. ✅ Clyra Al Hikma deal - signed May 5, 2026. Exclusive Middle East + North Africa distribution for ViaCLYR™. GCC, Levant, and adjacent markets. ✅ $1.2M Minerals Contract signed - April 20, 2026 BioLargo Engineering providing its expertise in designing and engineering the pilot-scale facility. ✅ New MOU signed - May 3, 2026. Another AEC partnership in motion (Aquatech) That’s five material updates in roughly 100 days. No guts - No Glory💪🏻 📈

julian_jakobi

$BLGO the progress is real and not reflected in the price at all: ✅ Lake Stockholm AEC install - done. January 27, 2026. Live. In the ground. Under NJDEP & EPA monitoring. First real-world municipal PFAS deployment. ✅ Clyra first stocking order - secured February 2026 through Advanced Solution’s national US distribution network. Hospitals. Clinics. Revenue starting. ✅ Clyra Al Hikma deal - signed May 5, 2026. Exclusive Middle East + North Africa distribution for ViaCLYR™. GCC, Levant, and adjacent markets. ✅ $1.2M Minerals Contract signed - April 20, 2026 BioLargo Engineering providing its expertise in designing and engineering the pilot-scale facility. ✅ New MOU signed - May 3, 2026. Another AEC partnership in motion (Aquatech) That’s five material updates in roughly 100 days. No guts - No Glory💪🏻 📈

ImaginaryHospital306

It’s all about liquidity. Geopolitical events have caused a massive redirection of capital from trade financing to equities. Where is capital going to go right now? Not Europe, definitely not the GCC, not Asia. UST yielding 5% but nobody wants it (yet) and sovereigns are selling them to buy oil. It will not end well but nobody knows when exactly.

julian_jakobi

It’s how the big money is made 😉 ✅ Lake Stockholm AEC install - done. January 27, 2026. Live. In the ground. Under NJDEP & EPA monitoring. First real-world municipal PFAS deployment. ✅ Clyra first stocking order - secured February 2026 through Advanced Solution’s national US distribution network. Hospitals. Clinics. Revenue starting. ✅ Clyra Al Hikma deal - signed May 5, 2026. Exclusive Middle East + North Africa distribution for ViaCLYR™. GCC, Levant, and adjacent markets. ✅ New MOU signed - May 3, 2026. Another AEC partnership in motion. That’s four material updates in roughly 100 days.

infraa_

Not just KSA either. The entire GCC is being rapidly plunged into current account deficits as 50%+ of their export revenues are evaporating. Then you add Europe and DM Asia who are being pushed into deficit due to doubling of energy costs, and you suddenly have 90% of global creditors turning to debtors No one is talking about basic BoP. No one.

BaseConnect1420

I suspect there’s more to this. Did these GCC countries only advise the US at the last moment that they could not use the bases in their countries? Why? What happened for them to reach this decision?

CarRamRob

This one is special. It’s the largest oil output reduction the world has ever seen. And it has no ending in sight. Most oil price crashes and price spikes were a result of a 1% supply imbalance (either above or below). We are at 10% right now, and every month of this offline is like one of those whole years of supply. Somehow everyone has been convinced by a few tweets that are fed from the US government that a deal is about to happen. Why? The Iranians have the upper hand, are the ones who escalated the attacks to all of their GCC neighbours knowing it was a major step, and who’s leader had his parents, spouse, and son killed in the initial attacks? These are the negotiators you think are happy just to return to normal? So of course Iran will stale for time and less actual attacks. Their weapon of choice in the blockade has been firing this whole time, yet they got the Americans to stop shooting at them while their weapon is still deployed. The market is missing this, clearly, especially when you see it pumps higher than previous pumps on the same news as a ceasefire, each and every week.

Both-Improvement8645

And repairing the refinery infrastructure of the GCC? Estimated to be around 40 percent

kazkeb

GCC writing stern letters to Iran over it's actions

Dear-Law9628

This time around, the GCC countries have to respond. This was an unprovoked, unannounced attack on the UAE and not on a US base...they gotta respond at this point, even ceremonially

Locus_In_Quo

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereign funds invested a record $132 billion into U.S. assets in 2025. Averaging roughly $11 billion per month, these state-owned investors poured about half of their total global deployment into America, driven by strategic allocations in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and large-scale corporate acquisitions. [1, 2] The 2025 U.S. Investment Landscape Rather than deploying capital in perfectly uniform monthly installments, Gulf sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) executed block investments and major strategic acquisitions throughout the year. [1, 2] Total Deployed: The seven largest Gulf funds deployed a combined $119 billion across their portfolios. U.S. Share: A massive 59 percent of all Gulf SWF deals in 2025 targeted the United States. Focus Areas: **Capital heavily favored digital infrastructure, data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), and U.S. financial/real estate markets.** [1, 2, 3, 4] Key Spenders While the capital does not break down evenly by month, the 2025 yearly totals from the top GCC investors offer an idea of the monthly run rate: Sovereign Fund [1]2025 U.S. / Global Spending Notable Activity Saudi Arabia's PIF~$36 billion Four-fifths of this was used in a massive, PIF-led leveraged buyout of the U.S. gaming giant Electronic Arts. Abu Dhabi's Mubadala~$33 billion Acted as the most active overall Gulf investor globally. Its spending included a $10 billion investment in U.S. private equity firm TWG Global and $12.9 billion in AI and digitalization. Kuwait & Qatar Funds~$10 billion combined Deployed in heavy blocks toward U.S. infrastructure and tech. High-Level Pledges vs. Actual Capital Throughout 2025, the U.S. and GCC governments announced a series of sweeping, multi-year, non-binding investment pledges designed to deepen economic ties. These framework announcements—which included commitments stretching over the next decade—totaled over $3 trillion, but the bulk of this remains multi-year, long-term capital rather than immediate monthly cash injections. 4 days, winning, killing all the GCC golden geese at once. It may be a certainty that 2026 will see ZERO money coming to Wall St. Should do a Hormuz deal no questions ASAP. Spirit is the canary...the oil shock is worse than the one in 1973

DesticularDorsion

If the GCC infrastructure is hit or the Bab is closed, yes.

TabhairDomAnAirgead

Ok i don’t actually live in europe anymore so let me put it another way, this is 3.63aed per litre. This is basically the same price as the oil prodcing country I live in in the GCC. Again, cheap. Regardless, not all of Europe is as much a cycling utopia as you think. In a lot of places across a lot of countries a car is as much a necessity as america.

Gullible_Ad3785

Short term the bullish case is fantastic.  It takes a while to restart production and get the tankers delivering.  Of course the paper markets will go down if the strait comes back on line, but I am guessing not as fast or as deep as one might hope. Long term...there are a lot of variables.  Reserves got drawn down and a lot of countries that went light on reserves got fucked.  But EVs are demand destruction machines, as oil is mostly important for transportation rather than electricity generation. Also some more supply will be coming on market, like argentina and Venezuela.  There is a reason why the US shale guys are not going full drill, baby, drill despite windfall returns. Plus, you have Saudi arabia.  They tend to recover market share by dumping oil.  Will they do so again?  I see UAE leaving OPEC as not that important.  It's political habuki for trump to get the credit swaps so they can live to see tomorrow.  Also the GCC is a fucking joke.

RenfrowsGrapes

They left so they could produce more oil is my opinion. The GCC states are hurting for dollars and will not lower prices lol. Demand is thru the roof and you are niave if you think they don’t want to capitalize on higher prices.

Sea_Degree_4948

UAE has super low f&d costs and gets it to market a little more expensive than Saudi. The entire US oil business would be shut down before UAE.  Plus UAE is:The UAE has one of the most diversified economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with non-oil sectors contributing roughly 75% to 80% of its GDP as of early 2026. 

Lumpy_Ask_7379

Living and working in this market every day, the picture looks very different from what I hear from clients abroad. Dubai continues attracting serious capital from Europe, Asia, and the GCC. Rental yields here still outperform most major cities, and the off-plan market has been very active. What we consistently see from investors, whether they're based in London, Toronto, or Singapore, is that once they visit and see it firsthand, the hesitation subsides. Concern from people outside the region is understandable given everything that's happened, but Dubai has shown time and again it can absorb external shocks better than most markets. If anything, uncertainty tends to shake out the speculative buyers and leaves things in a healthier position. The real conversations worth having are around which areas, which asset types, and what the exit strategy looks like. That's where serious investment decisions get made. Happy to share what we're seeing if anyone wants a more specific breakdown.

ActivatingEMP

The GCC and Israel will never allow Iran to control the strait, they'd rather not export than pay Iran the toll because it means Iran would rule the entire region

Aggravating_Ad7022

GCC countries will end up fed up with this clowns

DingleJingle_

Can the US government afford to bail of Asia, the GCC and Spirit? If they can, I'm sure that will be the last of it.

Special-Age6210

Tail risk that GCC pulling out of infrastructure/AI investment triggers financial crisis. They are fucked economically right now.

CarRamRob

This is where I disagree with you (and the market). You think this ends when Trump wants it to end. Even in a defeat for him. This is Iran with a resurgence. Say the USA leaves and they start charging tolls. Ok, maybe not huge impact. What if they start decided to tell OPEC what to do since they now control the shipping for most of its members? Or Iran wants to further press their victory and have USA air bases removed from the GCC? What happens then Why does everyone assume Iran wants a ceasefire? Everything indicates they want to punish the US for what they have done, and are prepared to see it through. So why would they stop the blockade if not forced?

SLPFNK

US economy heavily propped up by the GCC nations. This situation is absolutely cooking the GCC. And if the GCC gets cooked, so does the US

Ascorbinium_Romanum

Which GCC country except Israel and maybe the Saudis (as long as Iran doesn't blow up their precious pipeline)?

Chopteeth

it's not just a "bad look", Iran will retaliate by targeting all energy infrastructure in the GCC

tika_dengu

Looks like NATO and GCC will be joining in this time 🍿

Spy300

South africa gets 35% percent of its oil from the GCC. Expect the prices of rare metals like platinum, that are energy intensive to mine and already in short supply, to skyrocket

llixaa

The GCC and India are attractive and underrated though.

billedev

Not until some of the GCC countries spend a fortune hoping to create a new artificial strait as scammed by the 🍊moses

Opposite_Day_9771

GCC collapses and makes the US the dominant player: [https://www.youtube.com/live/8ckOxpy6ENc?si=8WtggpamT9NhUD9k&t=1399](https://www.youtube.com/live/8ckOxpy6ENc?si=8WtggpamT9NhUD9k&t=1399)

Opposite_Day_9771

They control Hormuz and there's nothing anyone can do about it. This was in doubt before the war. Now, everyone knows the US can't protect the GCC including the GCC. If the Gulf States want their revenue stream, they have to pay tributes to Iran. From their point of view, they no longer have to pay the US so it's a wash.

illinformed-will

War risk on = market dump, oil up and risk to be scarce = USD up because petrodollar needed to buy fast War risk off = market pump, oil could be bought at lower price later = USD dump not needed as much Safe haven narrative is bullshit, look at gold got liquidated to fund the wave of deleverage in stocks/oil hedges and get USD Trade like any other forex/equities on shorter time frame On longer time frame petrodollar will fade because trust with GCC is broken + china / europe (yuan, euro) seems more rationals and the yields will fade because US debt ballooning so USD will slowly crumble

Stockengineer

Yeah, and either us pays for all repairs which could be hundreds of billions and the civilian deaths. Or they toll the strait, either way 🥭 has shown his cards and us can’t do anything unless they risk Iran blowing every other GCC oil infrastructure 😂 it’s essentially MADD but regional and it’s working

Old_Lab_2170

You are arguing for war crimes which Iran would retaliate in kind against the GCC countries. This kind of escalation could leave the Middle East uninhabitable. Also the last option to achieve what exactly? No nuclear? Return of the uranium? Regime change? Safe passage through the strait?

illinformed-will

So what's the big news for the melt up/oil dump ? Iran will pay for reparation to US, Israel and GCC, gives free oil to compensate every countries that have been buttfckd by oil price and make mango the spiritual leader of shia crescent ?

DuffyDoe

>they are active participants in the war No, they were passive participants, Iran themselves first said they'll attack US bases in GCC countries and everyone were cool with that but all of a sudden they started attacking hotels and civilian infrastructure >Literally every single war was either started by Israel or by US proxies like AL-Queda and ISIS. People like you love to throw random wrong facts - Iran/Iraq war had nothing to do with the US or Israel, over 1M dead - Iraq invading Kuwait - Yemen/Saudi Arabia - their first war happened in 1930s - Yemen & Syrian civil war - local minorities oppressed other people - Libya / Egypt - several border clashes

Heffe3737

>Iran threatened to attack U.S. destroyers last week if they transited the strait, but several did without being touched. Since then, more tankers have started going through from GCC countries, resulting in the highest amount yesterday since the war started. This is true. But let's keep in mind context here. 20 ships made it through yesterday \[actually on Tuesday, we don't yet know yesterday's total\], out of a daily average of between 100-150 transits. At best, 20% of avg shipping made it through. That doesn't exactly indicate that things are getting back to normal, or anywhere close to it, really. And again, we're currently one week into a two week cease fire - what happens when that cease fire ends if Iran decides it wants to start firing drones and missiles at ships again? Do you think maritime traffic transiting the strait will still be 20 ships per day? Of course not. >You claimed the situation was the exact same as it was weeks ago (false) No, I didn't, but nice strawman. I said that Iran could still "stop any and all traffic it wants from sailing through the strait, regardless of whatever the US is doing." Go back and reread my post if you have any intellectual integrity. >and that Iran was capable of stopping any traffic it wants to (also false). I did state this. And it's objectively true, despite your insistence that it's false. Do you believe that Iran suddenly ran out of drones and missiles in the last week? Otherwise, you actually agree with me that Iran can shut down the strait whenever they want.

Francisco-De-Miranda

Iran threatened to attack U.S. destroyers last week if they transited the strait, but several did without being touched. Since then, more tankers have started going through from GCC countries, resulting in the highest amount yesterday since the war started. This is up from just a couple a day a week ago. Meanwhile, Iran’s ports are blockaded. You claimed the situation was the exact same as it was weeks ago (false) and that Iran was capable of stopping any traffic it wants to (also false). For a self-professed “security expert”, your information is pretty outdated.

BusyHands_

And what is stopping Iran from hitting GCC sites as well? US and Trump don't care if that entire region turns into WWZ style survival AS long as US gets it's cheap oil

shivaswrath

We are midst the shock. The dead cat bounce we are in are funds and retail investors ignoring it. Europe has limited air fuel supply, APAC does too. This is not an experiment in determining if the global economy is disconnected from the US one...we ARE connected and things WILL be horrid. There are infrastructure implications that will take years to repair in the GCC. So...yes we have now globs inflation due to 70m Americans voting without brain cells (or not using the few they have), and it'll be semi permanent until 2030. I hope the 2030s are better. Or we go straight into a global recession....

RimandRam

I firmly believe trump is forcing GCC trust funds to prop up the market and keep shorting crude.

0o0o0o0o0o0z

> Can someone explain what is causing this positive price action? Vibes, we are not gonna nuke Iran, looks like Iran is not gonna go buck wild on the GCC countries. Earning season for banks, AI is back in play... I mean its all fucking made up at the end of the day. The market is kinda detached from everyday America, which I dont care WTF Bloomberg tells me our economy is fucked. The US capitial markets are like an Amoeba that just retracts if it gets poked. If you pick the right direction, you can make a lot of money... not sure if thats just because of ease of access and retail investors + weekly 401k dumps, or whatever... but IMO everything id acting utterly irrationally.

glwillia

i don’t understand how we’re higher than we were before the war, with oil nearly 2x as expensive and the strait still effectively blocked and a lot of the infrastructure in the GCC and iran destroyed

Quiet-Knowledge-4105

I would want Strait to open for all unconditionally, like it was before asap. Lot many people have lost their jobs, companies their businesses in the GCC region. How it happens I leave it to Mr. Trump.

Normal_Wonder668

Am I missing something? opening the Strait of Hormuz, which is an international waterway, does not change the blockade of Iranian Ports. It's opening the waterway used by the world to access GCC markets, to allow commerce through.

Agitated-Lobster-623

They absolutely do though. Iran is just gonna start blowing up infrastructure in the GCC nations again unless the US walks away entirely

FartyBoatCaptain

This market is being manipulated into oblivion. Wouldn’t surprise me if there were to be tons of shorts trapped and they get fucked hard once the supply shock hits the entire global economy. Why would oil suddenly recover overnight after all that war destruction to the GCC’s? That’s going to take at least months, if not a year+ to fix and recover from

loveisrocketscience

If you can give me an iota of evidence , counter to the points I have provided above , I will be inclined to concede. Democrats will for sure win the next election , but won’t gain any of the global trust. The GCC and the EU understand , that US foreign policy is not in their interest , and often times not even in the interest of US herself often. They want a stable world order. Biden and Democrats were instrumental in destroying that. Carny and Macron didn’t say , oh we will wait for Trumps presidency to end and we will do Dems to do the right thing. They have said very clearly and Loudly, that it’s time to move on from US as a reliable partner “period”