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Tail risk that GCC pulling out of infrastructure/AI investment triggers financial crisis. They are fucked economically right now.
This is where I disagree with you (and the market). You think this ends when Trump wants it to end. Even in a defeat for him. This is Iran with a resurgence. Say the USA leaves and they start charging tolls. Ok, maybe not huge impact. What if they start decided to tell OPEC what to do since they now control the shipping for most of its members? Or Iran wants to further press their victory and have USA air bases removed from the GCC? What happens then Why does everyone assume Iran wants a ceasefire? Everything indicates they want to punish the US for what they have done, and are prepared to see it through. So why would they stop the blockade if not forced?
US economy heavily propped up by the GCC nations. This situation is absolutely cooking the GCC. And if the GCC gets cooked, so does the US
Which GCC country except Israel and maybe the Saudis (as long as Iran doesn't blow up their precious pipeline)?
it's not just a "bad look", Iran will retaliate by targeting all energy infrastructure in the GCC
Looks like NATO and GCC will be joining in this time 🍿
South africa gets 35% percent of its oil from the GCC. Expect the prices of rare metals like platinum, that are energy intensive to mine and already in short supply, to skyrocket
The GCC and India are attractive and underrated though.
Not until some of the GCC countries spend a fortune hoping to create a new artificial strait as scammed by the 🍊moses
GCC collapses and makes the US the dominant player: [https://www.youtube.com/live/8ckOxpy6ENc?si=8WtggpamT9NhUD9k&t=1399](https://www.youtube.com/live/8ckOxpy6ENc?si=8WtggpamT9NhUD9k&t=1399)
They control Hormuz and there's nothing anyone can do about it. This was in doubt before the war. Now, everyone knows the US can't protect the GCC including the GCC. If the Gulf States want their revenue stream, they have to pay tributes to Iran. From their point of view, they no longer have to pay the US so it's a wash.
War risk on = market dump, oil up and risk to be scarce = USD up because petrodollar needed to buy fast War risk off = market pump, oil could be bought at lower price later = USD dump not needed as much Safe haven narrative is bullshit, look at gold got liquidated to fund the wave of deleverage in stocks/oil hedges and get USD Trade like any other forex/equities on shorter time frame On longer time frame petrodollar will fade because trust with GCC is broken + china / europe (yuan, euro) seems more rationals and the yields will fade because US debt ballooning so USD will slowly crumble
Yeah, and either us pays for all repairs which could be hundreds of billions and the civilian deaths. Or they toll the strait, either way 🥭 has shown his cards and us can’t do anything unless they risk Iran blowing every other GCC oil infrastructure 😂 it’s essentially MADD but regional and it’s working
You are arguing for war crimes which Iran would retaliate in kind against the GCC countries. This kind of escalation could leave the Middle East uninhabitable. Also the last option to achieve what exactly? No nuclear? Return of the uranium? Regime change? Safe passage through the strait?
So what's the big news for the melt up/oil dump ? Iran will pay for reparation to US, Israel and GCC, gives free oil to compensate every countries that have been buttfckd by oil price and make mango the spiritual leader of shia crescent ?
>they are active participants in the war No, they were passive participants, Iran themselves first said they'll attack US bases in GCC countries and everyone were cool with that but all of a sudden they started attacking hotels and civilian infrastructure >Literally every single war was either started by Israel or by US proxies like AL-Queda and ISIS. People like you love to throw random wrong facts - Iran/Iraq war had nothing to do with the US or Israel, over 1M dead - Iraq invading Kuwait - Yemen/Saudi Arabia - their first war happened in 1930s - Yemen & Syrian civil war - local minorities oppressed other people - Libya / Egypt - several border clashes
>Iran threatened to attack U.S. destroyers last week if they transited the strait, but several did without being touched. Since then, more tankers have started going through from GCC countries, resulting in the highest amount yesterday since the war started. This is true. But let's keep in mind context here. 20 ships made it through yesterday \[actually on Tuesday, we don't yet know yesterday's total\], out of a daily average of between 100-150 transits. At best, 20% of avg shipping made it through. That doesn't exactly indicate that things are getting back to normal, or anywhere close to it, really. And again, we're currently one week into a two week cease fire - what happens when that cease fire ends if Iran decides it wants to start firing drones and missiles at ships again? Do you think maritime traffic transiting the strait will still be 20 ships per day? Of course not. >You claimed the situation was the exact same as it was weeks ago (false) No, I didn't, but nice strawman. I said that Iran could still "stop any and all traffic it wants from sailing through the strait, regardless of whatever the US is doing." Go back and reread my post if you have any intellectual integrity. >and that Iran was capable of stopping any traffic it wants to (also false). I did state this. And it's objectively true, despite your insistence that it's false. Do you believe that Iran suddenly ran out of drones and missiles in the last week? Otherwise, you actually agree with me that Iran can shut down the strait whenever they want.
Iran threatened to attack U.S. destroyers last week if they transited the strait, but several did without being touched. Since then, more tankers have started going through from GCC countries, resulting in the highest amount yesterday since the war started. This is up from just a couple a day a week ago. Meanwhile, Iran’s ports are blockaded. You claimed the situation was the exact same as it was weeks ago (false) and that Iran was capable of stopping any traffic it wants to (also false). For a self-professed “security expert”, your information is pretty outdated.
And what is stopping Iran from hitting GCC sites as well? US and Trump don't care if that entire region turns into WWZ style survival AS long as US gets it's cheap oil
We are midst the shock. The dead cat bounce we are in are funds and retail investors ignoring it. Europe has limited air fuel supply, APAC does too. This is not an experiment in determining if the global economy is disconnected from the US one...we ARE connected and things WILL be horrid. There are infrastructure implications that will take years to repair in the GCC. So...yes we have now globs inflation due to 70m Americans voting without brain cells (or not using the few they have), and it'll be semi permanent until 2030. I hope the 2030s are better. Or we go straight into a global recession....
I firmly believe trump is forcing GCC trust funds to prop up the market and keep shorting crude.
> Can someone explain what is causing this positive price action? Vibes, we are not gonna nuke Iran, looks like Iran is not gonna go buck wild on the GCC countries. Earning season for banks, AI is back in play... I mean its all fucking made up at the end of the day. The market is kinda detached from everyday America, which I dont care WTF Bloomberg tells me our economy is fucked. The US capitial markets are like an Amoeba that just retracts if it gets poked. If you pick the right direction, you can make a lot of money... not sure if thats just because of ease of access and retail investors + weekly 401k dumps, or whatever... but IMO everything id acting utterly irrationally.
i don’t understand how we’re higher than we were before the war, with oil nearly 2x as expensive and the strait still effectively blocked and a lot of the infrastructure in the GCC and iran destroyed
I would want Strait to open for all unconditionally, like it was before asap. Lot many people have lost their jobs, companies their businesses in the GCC region. How it happens I leave it to Mr. Trump.
Am I missing something? opening the Strait of Hormuz, which is an international waterway, does not change the blockade of Iranian Ports. It's opening the waterway used by the world to access GCC markets, to allow commerce through.
They absolutely do though. Iran is just gonna start blowing up infrastructure in the GCC nations again unless the US walks away entirely
This market is being manipulated into oblivion. Wouldn’t surprise me if there were to be tons of shorts trapped and they get fucked hard once the supply shock hits the entire global economy. Why would oil suddenly recover overnight after all that war destruction to the GCC’s? That’s going to take at least months, if not a year+ to fix and recover from
If you can give me an iota of evidence , counter to the points I have provided above , I will be inclined to concede. Democrats will for sure win the next election , but won’t gain any of the global trust. The GCC and the EU understand , that US foreign policy is not in their interest , and often times not even in the interest of US herself often. They want a stable world order. Biden and Democrats were instrumental in destroying that. Carny and Macron didn’t say , oh we will wait for Trumps presidency to end and we will do Dems to do the right thing. They have said very clearly and Loudly, that it’s time to move on from US as a reliable partner “period”
A little bird told me that Trump’s made the GCC pay protection money via the stock market. Make of that what you will.
GCC countries being dumped in real time.
Market believes: * More GCC exports will move by pipeline to the Red Sea * Venezuela’s production will first recover to pre Chavez levels, then exceed it * Alberta’s separatist vote (even if the courts suppress it) will stimulate Ottawa find ways to get more Canadian oil production to market * China will continue to electrify by building coal powered plants * U.S. oil companies will produce more oil > Israel is destroying entire villages in Lebanon Utterly irrelevant to the U.S. stock market, or any stock market for that matter.
Chinese tankers carrying oil from GCC ports are sailing through fine. Only ships from Iranian ports are subject to US blockade, that’s around 11% of oil which flows through the strait. A large chuck of Iranian oil has already crossed the strait and is in the high seas. China also has plenty of reserves to make up for any potential gaps. I don’t see any reason why markets should freak out, yet.
And? Now iran is threatening china’s oil supplies if they strike at other GCC crude ships. Which would entice china to tell iran to back down. US is blocking Iranian ports, not GCC.
I get that oil companies are extremely hesitant to invest in higher cost oil infra if they’re not confident that oil prices will remain high in the future. But honestly I think it’s highly unlikely that oil prices will drop to 2025 levels anytime soon. It would probably take one or more of the following events: 1. Total capitulation by the US or Iran and return to confidence in freedom of navigation in SoH (unlikely). Note that a land invasion or Iranian civil war would likely not provide enough stability for this. 2. Investment in oil processing technology to reduce the costs of currently more expensive oil fields. This is happening but is really slow. 3. Miraculous discovery of new oil fields that are cost competitive (unlikely). 4. Investment in clean energy tech that reduces the demand for oil and thus the price of oil. This is also happening but is slow, although the rate of progress is different in different places. Out of all of these outcomes 4 seems the most promising, and also helps solve climate change which we want anyway. Even if the conflict is resolved it’s an overall win to move to renewables. Prior to this there just wasn’t the economic incentive when oil was still cheap. But it’ll still take time and countries like China and the EU are much more advanced in this than the US or global south. In regard to pipelines and other overland transportation, it’s an option but Iran has shown it’s very capable of striking infrastructure targets in the GCC. You can bury the pipeline (which is expensive) but then Iran can still strike wells and ports. I think it’s less about how much infra the GCC has, and more about how well it can be protected or how well Iran can be contained and unable to project power in the gulf.
The US is blockading a country it is in war with. It will say it has every right to do so. What is China gonna do? Blow through a USN CSG? No one (even Iran) is foolish enough to do that. Barring a diplomatic solution, China really cannot do shit here. As for the earlier trade war, China had time to sign deals with other countries and US-China trade war was a mutual destruction, so the US had to retrace its policies. This case is different. The US doesn't need oil from the ME. It can blockade the entire strait for longer than China can sustain. This time even GCC are in support of curbing Iran's powers.
I’d assumed Trump wrangle the GCC countries to buy up the stock market massively in return for his protection.
If tonight Iran bomb 85% of GCC energy capacity, SPY will gap up to 695, CRDO to 250 and NBIS to 200 Got it now, ez
The way I’m reading the news of 121 tankers leaving Hormuz to come to the US is that expectations are at least 16 more days of closure. Up to 44 days if some of those ships are going to India. I haven’t seen the makeup of the 121 ships origin or destination countries be detailed yet. So that means that the strait is likely to remain closed for a couple weeks to a month longer at the least, all the while the production of certain things like sulfuric acid and helium are semi-permanently reduced (think chip making). Oil pipelines have ramped up to full capacity but this is a percentage increase from normal flow, so not anywhere near the 20M barrels per day that normally leave the GCC through the strait. This ignores the other ~4M barrels per day that normally leave Bab el-Mendeb route, which I’m sure for insurance reasons alone some ships (their owners) won’t be navigating in the same term, and has been threatened for closure already. I’ll continue to ignore this but leave it on the radar until closed, but should be mathed out by someone with more time than me for actual export loss. So for another .5-1 month of *delayed* shipment is the very least right now and that’s the optimistic view. The pessimistic view is of course much cloudier with no timeline of reopening, potential for other energy routes to be tolled (or tolled heavier, think Panama Canal etc), and a general bearish call for loss of all hope. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, and likely to be toward the optimistic side as the economies currently doing battle need to fund the battle itself in order to remain potent. So is it looking good for oil prices in the near term? Idk man I work at Wendy’s. You want fries with that?
Yeah yeah now try to spin a Fckin narrative around what is pure manipulation. The reality is that the US is forcing the GCC trust funds to keep this market afloat, plain and simple.
we are one tweet and one drunken decision away from all energy facilities being flattened in iran and the GCC this just can’t be priced in already. we’re already missing hundreds of tankers of oil per day. the market is fundamentally broken from reality
US admin is trying to keep the market propped up through manipulation through GCC trust funds.
This is a gun point rally. GCC trust funds have been forced to prop up US markets.. there is no logic to the rally.
Because US admin is forcing the GCC trust funds to prop up the US markets and keep shorting oil futures. The President had said that GCC countries will have to pay for this war with Iran. How they will pay, you were never told.
Yes. That’s the part I don’t get. Won’t there soon be a physical energy shortage throughout Asia, Australia, and soon the EU? 5 ships per day doesn’t fix that. Why doesn’t the market have more concern about this reality? Paper oil price won’t be real compared with spot price. And who can assure delivery from GCC?
No way bro. The full scale invasion of Ukraine was just the start of the great 21st century Cold War. Many thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed by Iranian drones. GCC nations are united against Iran now.
No lol the GCC would never accept a blockade. The GCC would blockade themselves and bypass.
Yes. The GCC states are firmly against Iran. They see Israel and Lebanon as separate to their own sovereignty that Iran is threatening.
The GCC states are not ‘firmly in a coalition’. If you believe that you have no idea about the politics in the Middle East. The GCC states don’t support Israel’s attack on Lebanon. The GCC states are only supporting the U.S to the extent they want the straits open for their oil and gas. Their fear is if the U.S left, it becomes a permanent toll booth.
Honestly it’s because Iran’s only leverage is targeting civilian shipping. This is a double edged sword and now that everyone knows that they want to do this, bypasses will be expanded and built. I expect a slow cessation of hostilities that leave Iran in hyperinflation and economic collapse. GCC nations will not accept a blockade by a rump state without a military.
Probably the optimal move in a mediocre situation. Forces China to pressure Iran, cuts off Iranian revenue. GCC states have partial reroute that can be improved in coming months and aren’t under active attack.
Will Iran let GCC loaded ships pass through?
It’s not just moving from one investment to another one. Some people need liquidity to buy real stuff. GCC countries for example must be hurting badly.
don't forget about the GCC countries who have lost a ton of export revenue in USD but still have to import things
I mean they are not doing shit to American ships though. There will be carpet bombing over Iran before they can take out a USS. I don't condone violence though, just being realistic. The only leverage Iran has is it can lash out at GCC countries and occasionally shoot at passing container ships. That's not equivalent to taking out USS.
Iran was prepared to mine the Strait. This causes the GCC more pain than Iran, with Iran not having to do anything, its like that scene from Dark Knight Rises where the army actually helps keep the Gotham citizenry hostages unintentionally. What does Trump think the price of oil will be by Friday?? He is so stupid he thinks Iran will capitulate in a day of the blockade being in place
i would build a railroad 🚂🚃🚃🚃 from Kuwait 🇰🇼 all the way to Southern Oman 🇴🇲 carrying crude freight- a dedicated crude corridor from all GCC States 🧐
Except it turns out pretty much every country would rather deal with Iran than with the US, Israel, and the GCC.
That's today. That's not China's goal. It would start with China buying a portion of its oil from the GCC in yuan and building relationships from there.
> If any country on that list, for example, China, refuses to be interdicted, it will lead to both a faster de-dollarization and a broad display of weakened American control over global trade. If the Strait is left in Iran & China's control that would happen anyways. China would push for oil markets to trade in yuan all across the GCC.
Oh you mean the pipelines that got attacked last week? https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en/2026/03/14/SIUIYVMM6RGLDKI4RLSLMOPHE4/#:~:text=Fujairah%20Port%20is%20located%20in,port%20to%20Asia%20and%20Europe. I didn’t call UAE “completely insolvent”, they’re in the best position out of the gulf countries I guess but given that the vast majority of the gulf economies are supported almost entirely by hydrocarbon exports with some finance and real estate and tourism peppered in, i still don’t see how they aren’t fried. Who would ever want to voluntarily travel somewhere where bombs are flying overhead? Tourism industry is cooked. Same with finance, the facade of stability is required for investors to put money into your country. Who would ever invest in the gulf states now even if the war ended tomorrow it won’t chance the fact that the illusion of stability is gone. The keystone of the gulf states economies has been not just removed with the blockade (and the USA is now enforcing one as well), but actively damaged. It will take years to get exports to any appreciable pre war level, and right now the GCC are suddenly facing: a) effectively zero revenue from hydrocarbon exports + tourism (Saudi still has 10% from the pipeline, not that it matters microscopically) b) billions of dollars in infrastructure repairs c) billions of dollars in defense spending Where are they going to get the money to fund all this plus their welfare states and government exactly? I don’t think they’ll have any choice but to start liquidating their sovereign wealth funds after their cash reserves are gone. I really like the part where you miss my point and act like a condescending ass. Hope you bought the “ceasefire” dip
Why not let the GCC ships pass? We can easily identify the Iranian ships and seize/block.
So let’s starve the people in the GCC and then what’s the plan when China shows up with its navy that disagrees? SMH
Iran yearly oil export is less than GCC 2 week export. Orango hasn't done the math correctly i think...
I guess we'll see what happens then, don't know how GCC will react to this given that some Chinese vessel did carry non-Iran crude through the strait, now even that will be gone.
> And the big one: migrating from Windows Active Directory, Group Policy, Exchange Oh, about this I completely agree. I have seen myself a failed attempt to make administrative personnel move from Linux to Windows. I want to see what happens with France, but I am as sceptical as you about it. I was just discussing > A sovereign Linux stack means you also need driver support for every piece of hardware your government touches printers, NICs, GPUs, biometric readers. Manufacturers write drivers for mainline, not your fork. The only reason why Europe would need to fork is if the US tries to close Linux. The fork becomes the mainline the very moment this happens. Unless Europe gets put under some sort of global embargo, manufacturers will race to write all that is needed. > Security response for zero-days that won't wait for your team to catch up with upstream. Toolchain maintenance, think GCC/LLVM, glibc, systemd… Yeah, not "ours" but the money required falls in the same ballparks, completely manageable.
The kernel is the easy part. A sovereign Linux stack means you also need driver support for every piece of hardware your government touches printers, NICs, GPUs, biometric readers. Manufacturers write drivers for mainline, not your fork. Then you need a desktop environment, package manager, and userland tooling… an entire distro. Security response for zero-days that won't wait for your team to catch up with upstream. Toolchain maintenance, think GCC/LLVM, glibc, systemd… also not yours. Certification and compliance for every agency deploying it. And the big one: migrating from Windows Active Directory, Group Policy, Exchange, blah, blah, blah, every internal app that assumes Windows exists. Your $40M gets you a kernel fork. Period. Actually replacing Windows across a government costs billions and a decade of integration hell. Google LiMux, Munich spent 10+ years on it, and went back to Windows.
It must be so nice to be a GCC country, have your ally USA start a war from your territory, just bail after ruining your economy for the foreseeable future, then brag about profiting from it.
Oil will hit $200 the GCC will be abandoned.
negotiation falls through, Iran bombs GCC oil facilities, nukes will begin flying monday opens -0.15%
US still does physical safety of GCC countries. Everyone hedges though.
Iran not showing to peace talks, Drones in GCC, Drones in Iran, bombs in Lebanon. So the only country that is not attacking anyone now is the US. So it's not an iran-us ceasefire. It is us-us ceasefire.
This is where you're wrong. The US grabbed Venezuela oil and cut a deal with Indonesia before the war started. If Israel or the US destroy Iran's oil infrastructure and Iran retaliates and destroy GCC's oil, the world would go into a depression. However, US ends up controlling 52% of the existing world's oil. China would collapse internally with economic armageddon. The AI race would effectively be over. The price for US hegemony for the next 50 years is a single POTUS and perhaps some Republican representatives. That's a small price to pay considering WW3 with super powerful China is a possibility.
> The normalized relations with GCC states will also suffer as they are pretty bitter that the US has prioritized defending Israel while they took heavy pounding from Iran. LOL i get you hate Israel, but this war drove the GC states towards Israel, not away. They have not achieved any of YOUR goals, fine. They absolutely achieved some or even the majority of their goals, including the assassination of Khameni, who was responsible for the largest Jewish massacre since the holocaust. If you cannot see that as a war goal achievement, you are blinded by your hatred of Israel.
depends how long you think disruptions will last and what are the linger effect of getting GCC OG facilities back up + restore normal traffic in the strait. I would also assume a lot of countries will be building deeper reserves and there is also the nat gas story with data centers. XLE is pretty good play
Israel both control USA but is also a pawn. While it’s possible Israel fucked the USA on this one, I don’t think it’s the case. I think USA and Israel both agreed to break the ceasefire nearly immediately. USA and Israel have the same goal. No it’s not to defeat Iran. It’s actually the destruction of the GCC. But they can’t destroy it themselves. So they will poke Iran incessantly until Iran destroys the GCC. Then they’ll bomb Iran. USA will fuck off to North America. USA and Israel have agreed to make Israel the dominant power in Middle East. But the actual dominant power in Middle East isn’t Iran. It’s the USA through the GCC. So before Israel is made the center of the Middle East, Trump must conspire with Israel to destroy USA military power in the region through destruction of USA bases and the petrodollar. As depraved as Israel just not listening to USA or Israel “owning” Trump , the truth is actually far more depraved. They may have things on Trump but do not get it twisted; Trump is happy to work along Israel for destruction of USA hegemony because it would allow his children to be kings of North America.
The plan is to destroy the GCC then move on Greenland Cuba Mexico and Canada
Funny that you think Israel didn’t break the ceasefire with USA permission let alone USA order. The ceasefire was never meant to last. Donald’s goal is to have Iran destroy the GCC, send Iran back to the Stone Age , and end USA world hegemony. To embrace a multipolar world retreat back to the northern hemisphere and take control of American continent. This cannot happen with a ceasefire. Here’s what actually happened: USA fucked up a ground invasion that turned into a rescue mission. They had to nope the fuck out and then asked for a few days of “ceasefire” to regroup. They regrouped and gave Israel a green light.
Eh, the Strait of Hormuz will never have as much value as prior to the war. The single biggest infrastructure priority for the GCC will be to rapidly build pipelines across the peninsula, which will take a couple years. Unless Iran would initiate war and destroy those, that means the Gulf will just see far fewer ships.
Ok, so what boats are they blowing up? Iran has ports on either side of the strait, so they dont need to pass through it. They also have plenty of pipelines out, so unlike the gulf states, they have alternatives. Iran has no Navy, and can still block the strait because it has ample other military capabilities. It also doesnt have to use the strait if it doesnt want to. Its not the same comparison. Iran controls the strait but isnt reliant on it. The GCC nations dont control the strait, but are reliant on it. Gulf states can whine all they want, they cant open the straits on their own, or exact enough damage on Iran to convince Iran to open them.
After this shit is over, I’m expecting a fundamental repositiong of the GCC. American power as we know it, is over in the middle east and obviously with repercussions beyond. This was the dumbest decision of the 21st century.
It’s way too early to say America won. Iran’s military was badly hurt and their leader was killed, but their government is still running and still fighting. They have an ability to strike GCC and Israeli targets. The Strait of Hormuz is one of Iran’s biggest weapons because so much of the world’s oil passes through it. And NATO doesn’t get involved in Middle East wars, that’s not really what they’re for.
Its in crypto or Chinese Yuan. You would be a fool even to welcome it in USD. The GCC has issues, but they are no where near as bad or unpredicable as Iran.
So making NATO pay their bills, making Japan/SK/GCC invest trillions into America, making Canada lay their fair share and getting China to sign an unfavourable deal is losing? Not to mention destroying Iran
China and Iran are the biggest winners by a long shot. The GCC are already moving away from the US, Qatar expelled US troops from it's country. Bahrain plans to do the same... I would assume that they all do it. Why would you invest in an unreliable ally that can't even project a consistent message much less the power to support it.
Russia yes. Israel didn't get anything they wanted except degradation of Iran. No regime change or collapse, no removal of nuclear material, no destruction of Hizbullah, a loss in world public opinion etc. They are the biggest losers along with the GCC in 2nd place. The only clear winner is Russia.
Capital markets will always choose to work with stable and predictable, even if authoritarian nations. The US has shown it is not only authoritarian under whatever guise it has assumed but its alliance and words aren't worth the paper it is written on. I was downvoted in a comment when I said China, Russia, Europe, the GCC are watching. Taiwan's representative is slated to meet Xi in a historical meeting to promote peace.
Literally just status quo from the last 5 weeks. Strait still closed unless you pay $2M petroyuans, Israel still annexing Lebanon, Iran still slowly dismantling GCC oil infrastructure, 🥭 still a liar even when he says things people want to hear.
If their was legitimate intelligence Iran was trying to acquire a nuclear weapon it wouldn't be the GCC it would be multiple countries invading
They are not, they haven't achieved any of their goals. Not only regime change didn't happen, it got way stronger/radical. Previously, Iran was ready to make many concessions which they are no longer willing to make, they are making demands instead now. This war may also weaken Israeli lobby in the US in the long term, as there has been a growing voice against it in both sides of the political spectrum and this was has given them a new strength. The normalized relations with GCC states will also suffer as they are pretty bitter that the US has prioritized defending Israel while they took heavy pounding from Iran.
Question is not if Trump is done with Iran. That’s been clear for 4 weeks now. It’s if Iran is done with Trump. Maybe they allow just enough oil through to their Asian customers, but throttle the GCC countries still for years? Who knows at this point.
I think Iran's threat towards GCC infrastructure is what gave them the biggest leverage. I do not think it will be possible for those states to have intercepters AND Israel. Israel was 100% wanting the entire Arab world to burn around them, but the US, apparently was not okay with their Petrol Vassals imploding.
Because even though China is friendly with Iran, having complete chaos in the region where the majority of Asia’s oil supply is coming from is terrible for everyone on that side of the sphere. If Iranian oil infrastructure is destroyed, and they retaliate against GCC I structure. It doesn’t matter who “controls the strait” beaches no oil is going to flow. Saudi and Pakistan have a military alliance as well.
You are smoking something. Political and military analysts shares this view most of whom are ex - oil advisors to companies in the GCC, including ex -white house ambassador. It's surprising you find this surprising.
Whatever the reason for the US conceding, this does signal to the world about the (already) unreliable support of the US. The GCC has, for decades, been allied with the US. Yesterday, the US decision to agree to a ceasefire, with Iran continuing to fire projectiles to the GCC members, says everything. Taiwan, China, Russia and the world is watching.
The ceasefire won't work because the demand of Iran is highly unacceptable in Israel favour:- Iran right to enrich uranium must be recognized = This does not sit well to Satanyahu as he is the one who have been bragging about Iran enriching uranium for years. This is one of reason why Israel drag US into this war in the first place Cancellation of all IAEA security council resolutions against Iran = Almost the same on the above Withdrawal of US military forces from the region = Won't work because the US somehow want the grip of middle east. This does not favour the Israeli as they will lose their ally and left alone in the middle east. Also a lot of GCC countries have sponsor the US to become their 'defender' The US must guarantee non-aggression = The US might abide on this but it is the Israeli who gonna go rogue
I know this isn't what you mean, but 10M would be $65 and 50M is $85. It could just be that the price of oil is too high. Plus, the GCC right now is scrambling to build pipelines around the hormuz, now that they've learned the USA can't protect them, so within a few years it will be much less of a problem.
The GCC never trusted Iran and this has pushed them closer to Israel than anything. MBS is whispering in trumps ear to get rid of this regime.
It’s not nothing gained. It’s actually at great loss. The GCC allies of the US are maybe univestable now, the Iranians control the flow (and thus the price) of oil through the whole region. And, some energy infrastructure is offline for months if not years still. This is clearly a degraded capability.
If the US rolls over on these terms, I think the suez comparison is apt, an inability to achieve strategic aims due to a lack of political and (to some extent) military power. On the other hand the GCC states and Saudi can't hand this much power to Iran either. Prediction: now that that shooting has stopped negotiations will drag out forever and both sides will claim key wins but net net is Iran is much stronger afterwards.
People thinking trump would actually do the bombing kinda highlights to me how regarding some WSB users are. Trumps TACO was so obvious - he could not carry through with his threat as the GCC wouldve been razed. The GCC give him plane, give his son in law billions to management. They lube him up. It was impossible for his to do this. His allies would lose 100s of Bills