GCC

UND_mtnman

I heard this will mainly impact the GCC, not as globally catestrophic as the post makes it out to be. 

Ok_Location_1092

Lol, gross over simplification of epic proportions. Escalation at this juncture means destruction of GCC oil infrastructure.

FunAdditional6947

They call these offshore locations in India as IDC - India Delivery Center or India Development center or GCC - Global capability centre

imoverthisapp

The GCC has nothing to do with this. The only reason Iran is beefing with Saudi Arabia is because they want Shia dominion over Mecca and Madina. In fact Saudi Arabia has housed over 1.9 million Yemenis, they work and live there and get an education. How many Yemenis have Iran housed since they started funding a terrorist group there? How many Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian people have they housed? They’re all living perfectly in the GCC while Iran uses their countries as a military extension of them.

Electrical-Bus5706

Well iran was pummeling israel directly a few months ago, quite satisfying. However now theyre a bit busy in the straight of hormuz. So they lean into their "proxies" in the axis of resistance. You dont have to agree with these countries governance structure, theological beliefs or domestic affairs. But its very obvious theyre a pretty unified front against a common enemy (us, israel and the GCC) and you are just outright foolish to claim the current situation is anyone but fat pedo and satanyahus fault. They dont need to be heros theyre just less in the wrong here lol.

Criticall16

The ability to use those basis is totally contingent on the home countries though. UK, Spain, multiple GCC countries have refused to let US use their base when they wanted. Not to mention much of Middle East basis have been evacuated and we are being forced to use satellite basis in Jordan.

jrex035

Agreed. The market is also seriously underestimating the risk of future damage to regional O&G facilities. I mean, Christ, ARAMCO gets hit daily at this point. The Houthis blew up the top floors of their HQ 2 days ago not that anyone seems to care. If, or more accurately *when* the conflict escalates again, more regional infrastructure will go boom which is beneficial for equities with facilities outside the GCC.

Sufficient-Skill9530

Arrakis = the GCC and Fremen = Yemen. Them Houths are the Fremen, but who is Muad'dib???

LargeShirt2863

I doubt that. search the GCC buildup in India and east asia, you will see interesting names and figures. Corporate understand just one thing - Profit. They can balance it with politics but would never keep it on second priority

msnred

You don’t know jack shit. These jobs r never coming to Americans. You have no idea how many companies are setting up GCC’s offshore.

jkp2072

I have worked at big tech and most big tech has major GCC offices in india, eastern asia and Europe... They are pretty competent at their work.. If you wanted a job at big tech in india as a developer, it was much harder... High population, harder dsa level, more loops of dsa and system design and what not... Heard from my co-workers.

LargeShirt2863

Will lead to more offshoring and GCC buildup in other countries

Sufficient-Skill9530

I’m legit surprised Iran isn’t ramping up attacks ahead of the midterms as we are roughly a month away. I doubt that they lost capabilities to mess up Hormuz ships and GCC infrastructure, so they must expect that mangue screwed up so badly already that he’s guaranteed to lose the house and senate without Iran having to risk more attacks. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

No, my statement holds, but at least you could make a reasonable claim, 4 months is simply stupid. I strongly doubt, without advances in technology to allow more oil to be extracted from the Permian, that Permian volumes increase from here. More likely, the Permian will continuously lose pressure and permanently decrease. Just look at current rigs, majors aren’t making large capex investments to increase production and Permian wells lose pressure in months to years. So I stand by my statement that seeing $50 ever again is unlikely, but I acknowledge the edge case still exists where some technology advancement in parallel to electrification makes $50 possible, albeit unlikely.  Looking at the GCC, there’s zero reason at this time to think a resolution is imminent and a permanent risk premium will exist going forward. Not to mention the significant infrastructure damage in the gulf and Russia. There’s simply no path to $50 oil in 4 months. 

RuleSafe6767

Boomers are creating a vacuum in equities because most of them need to rotate to fixed income before the next downturn. (As usual, most boomers will get super lucky and be fine because of this, vacations and spending will continue unabated) same with middle east GCC countries. Theyre selling out of equities to make up for drop in oil sales (although price bump is helping)

Uzunzatu

This war has been a carnival of retardation and you have to say Iran is winning on points. I hope they know when to take the W, though. Now Mango refusing the deal could be a bluff, or he could be entering his Keyser Soze phase, where he personally shoots the oil price, a Midwestern farmer, the GCC countries and the mid-terms in the head and asks those men of will what will really is. Those men of will have one ambition, which is glorious religious martyrdom, so that will be bad for everybody, but I think that's where we might be.

Sufficient-Skill9530

They’ll be proven right again in a matter of weeks when oil runs up north of $100 again, then Trump will deescalate and Bessent will short and oil will fall back to $80, and WSP will make fun of the oil bulls. Rinse and repeat. There’s simply not enough coming out of the GCC for prices to fall back to prewar levels and the divisions between the US, Iran and Israel prevents the possibility of a lasting peace. 

Njorls_Saga

There’s a UN General Assembly happening over the next ten days. I think he means that he’s going to discuss the situation with the GCC when everyone shows up in NY.

2020isgreat

Oman has postponed tomorrow's GCC-Iran meeting in Salalah, FM Badr Albusaidi says. The talks were to cover a proposed Iran-Oman shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. bullish

yourgirl696969

Nah Iran meeting cancelled with GCC and more details are coming out with Saudi exports going to basically zero in a week. High chance Iran retaliates for the last US strike on their commercial vessel too

Sea_Local2557

i don't think it has smaller IV than spy, price = volatility, btw won't the war escalation kill your calls on Monday or are you betting on a good talk between GCC and Iran?

Glass-Amount-9170

GCC is probably ready to tell the US to get the fuck out at this point!

Uzunzatu

No hikes. Iran and GCC will open both straits on Monday with generous tolls. Think about it, this is text book Mango. Fuck the situation up so badly it is intolerable for everyone, so they will be forced to fix it themselves. Mango will effectively surrender but finesse it as brokering a deal to stop a nuclear WW3. GCC will eat the cost because the alternative is being blockaded forever.

Western-Platypus-907

Believe it’s because the GCC seems to meeting with Iran. Might possibly lead to some sort of cooling off/framework

hayleybts

Gulf states are considering rare talks with Iran next week over the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman seeking a meeting of GCC and Iranian foreign ministers. Why we green today

hayleybts

Gulf states are considering rare talks with Iran next week over the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman seeking a meeting of GCC and Iranian foreign ministers. Why we green today

ResponsibilitySea327

No, the Saudi's win consistently, but never wipe them out and they come back after they regroup. It is all asymmetric rebel fighting so difficult to ever eradicate -- especially with the continued influx of Iranian money/arms. The Saudis have superior weapons, but it does little good against cheap Iranian rockets. But it is a big enough problem that even the GCC has tried to partner with Israel at times. And the current conflict may be enough for the GCC to finally do something against their sponsor, Iran.

ResponsibilitySea327

The Houthi are one of the few groups in the Middle East that both Arabs and Jews hate. The GCC will act pretty swiftly.

EternalMayhem01

>They say US didn't execute article 1 about Lebanon and started a new route in Southern Waters despite the fact article 5 had left that to negotiations of Iran, Oman and other Persian Gulf states. Not taking sides here but we are talking about Trump and cronies who have little regards for anything they sign. They never entered the MOU in good faith, it was just to get the oil flowing and to reload The MOU was signed June 17th. A ceasefire between Irsael and Hezbollah was set on June 19th. Iran decided in about 6 days that article 1 was breached.That's their excuse. [With Lebanon ceasefire set, Trump envoy heads to Switzerland for U.S.-Iran talks](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-iran-peace-talks-postponed-clouding-prospects-lasting-truce-2026-06-19/) Article 5, which I quoted for you above, required Iran to use “best efforts” for 60-day no-charge safe passage, start traffic immediately, demine within 30 days, and talk with Oman about future administration of the strait. It did not give Iran exclusive routing authority or ban an Omani/IMO southern corridor. The Omani/IMO southern corridor was keeping in line with the Article 5: "in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz." But Iran violated both with its attack on the Ever Lovely. Their attack on the Everly lovely was their move to assert control over the strait because they wanted exclusive control over routes under the IMO plan, but Article 5 didn't give them such a right, they were allowed to manage only what was in their waters. I would say it was Iran that didn't enter the agreement in good faith. The US secured a ceasefire in line with Article 1, while sure it was not the immediate stop in the fighting that Article 1required, it was an effort, and as I pointed out Iran didn't give that effort time. The US did grant a 60 day oil waiver so Iran could sell oil, which was part of the agreement to reopen the strait. The US did lift its blockade of Iran, which was part of the agreement to reopen the strait. US actions shown more good faith than what Iran has demonstrated. >And it didn't help that US media branded the MOU as total surrender or capitulation by Trump so Rubio went bck to the GCC in 5 days from signing of it and publicly saying things against article 5. What Rubio and the GCC said June 25th repeated the same language that article 5 of the MOU used in regards to international law. "A statement issued on June 25, at the conclusion of a meeting between the foreign ministers of the GCC countries and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, stressed that “free, unconditional, and unrestricted navigation, including the right of transit under international law, shall remain essential to regional and global security.” It also rejected “any tolls, fees, or attempts to assert control over the strait.” [Source. ](https://www.memri.org/reports/concern-gulf-states-over-possible-iranian-control-hormuz-imposition-transit-fees-it-could) It didn't help that Iranian officials and state media framed the June MOU as an Iranian victory and a U.S. defeat, claiming Washington accepted Iran’s its maximalist demands. [Source.](https://www.memri.org/reports/iranian-officials-celebrate-us-iran-mou-we-are-victorious-america-has-been-defeated)

MetaCalm

They say US didn't execute article 1 about Lebanon and started a new route in Southern Waters despite the fact article 5 had left that to negotiations of Iran, Oman and other Persian Gulf states. Not taking sides here but we are talking about Trump and cronies who have little regards for anything they sign. They never entered the MOU in good faith, it was just to get the oil flowing and to reload. And it didn't help that US media branded the MOU as total surrender or capitulation by Trump so Rubio went bck to the GCC in 5 days from signing of it and publicly saying things against article 5.

Drshakalah

**Claim followed by Why it fails** China has a “zero-marginal-cost clean grid” China’s grid is not remotely zero-cost or predominantly clean in generation terms. Coal supplied almost 60% of Chinese electricity in 2024, and the IEA estimates approximately 70% of electricity used by Chinese data centers currently comes from coal. Cheap Chinese electricity creates a 70%–95% compute-cost advantage Posted token prices are not production costs. They reflect model quality, subsidies, pricing strategy, utilization, batching, memory requirements and hardware efficiency. Electricity is only one component of total compute economics. Chinese open models strand US data centers Open-weight Chinese models can be and routinely are run on US hyperscaler infrastructure. A more efficient model can reduce compute per task while simultaneously expanding the number of economically viable tasks. Hyperscalers are debt-leveraged like 1929 railroads The largest hyperscalers remain extraordinarily profitable and internally finance much of their investment. Alphabet produced $164.7 billion of 2025 operating cash flow against $91.4 billion of capex; Microsoft’s March 2026 quarter produced $38.4 billion of operating income, up 20%. SaaS contraction means cloud demand collapses Fewer human seats could hurt some SaaS vendors, but deploying agents consumes inference, storage, databases, security and orchestration services—the products cloud providers sell. The demand effect is ambiguous, not mechanically negative. Agents eliminate advertising Agents may reduce traditional searches, but platforms can monetize agent placement, sponsored recommendations, transactions and API access. Moreover, Alphabet’s Q2 2026 operating income increased 30%, which is inconsistent with an already-occurring advertising implosion. Passive ETFs create an automatic liquidation loop Passive funds do not sell merely because their largest holdings decline. Their weights fall automatically with the stocks’ prices. Selling occurs only when investors redeem, and ETFs frequently satisfy redemptions through in-kind transfers. Data-center losses cause a repo-market run Private-credit loans and data-center real estate are not core repo collateral. Repo markets are anchored principally by government securities and other liquid collateral. Losses in private data-center SPVs could be severe without automatically disabling Treasury repo. GCC liquidation creates a Treasury funding crisis Gulf sales could raise yields at the margin, but the paper supplies no holdings, required-sale amount or market-depth analysis. Total foreign holdings of US securities were about $35.3 trillion at June 2025; the relevant GCC portfolios are only one part of that market. Oil abundance caused the 1929 crash This reverses the dominant causal direction. Historical research finds that the Depression’s demand collapse magnified the price impact of new oil discoveries. Banking failures, monetary contraction, deflation and the gold standard—not one week of Standard Oil announcements—explain the Depression’s severity. A 36-month global collapse follows No quantified balance-sheet model connects the exposures. There are no estimates of defaults, creditor losses, repo usage, fund redemptions, bank capital impairment or policy responses. The timeline is asserted rather than derived.

IsaacJacobSquires

Iran already ended the US dollar in March. Nobody's admitted it yet. Iran demonstrated that not only can the US not defend Israel, they can't defend the GCC either. That means the petrodollar scam is over. As soon as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is empty and the US economy feels the full impact of the Hormuz closure shock, it's game over. It should also mean that the DoD budget is cut by 80%, particularly for weapons and gigantic ships, as Iran also proved that shit don't work in battle and the DoD budget has been nothing but a total scam from the beginning.

Sufficient-Skill9530

Just to clarify about these reports, they are bs, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil.  Sources… This is the data I have for break even prices for Canadian producers… - Canadian Natural Resources: $40-$45 per barrel - Suncor: $38 per barrel - Cenovus: oil sands $21, total corp $45 - Strathcona Resources: $35 I don’t have good data for Venezuela, maybe someone has better. I only have $60-$80 per barrel.

Sufficient-Skill9530

I fully expect oil futures to drop, not because the Venezuela deal is real, but because oil traders behave like a battered housewife every time Trump makes an announcement. Just to clarify about these reports, they are total bullshit, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil.  Sources… This is the data I have for break even prices for Canadian producers… - Canadian Natural Resources: $40-$45 per barrel - Suncor: $38 per barrel - Cenovus: oil sands $21, total corp $45 - Strathcona Resources: $35 I don’t have good data for Venezuela, maybe someone has better. I only have $60-$80 per barrel.

ButtonNo7686

I was in Denmark recently and it cost around €15 per person (was with 2 other people). I’d rather go to a 5 guys at that’s price and pay a wee bit extra but we were desperate and hungry 🤣 I also travel to GCC countries quite often and due to the entire anti-Israel sentiment almost no one goes to McDonalds. I remember precovid in Saudi/Kuwait/Bahrain they used to be packed. Now only those looking for food after midnight bother with it. I don’t think there’s coming back from that no matter how much you rebrand.

Sufficient-Skill9530

It’s bullshit, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

It’s bullshit, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil.  I’m sure I’ll be claimed to be a bear, I’m not. I am bullish on the market because I expect, even though Trump’s deal is total bullshit, it will still cause oil futures to dump and equities to rip. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

It is bullshit, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

Very much so, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil. 

myazi321

Pakistan has the 2nd largest Shia population in the world and borders Iran and is already sandwiched in lifelong rivalry with India and has border issues with Afghanistan so they arent stupid enough to do anything. On top of that most of Pakistan's gas is imported from Iran and both have issues in Balochistan which neither would like to have blown up. Saudi Arabia as before is getting its ass handed to it by Yemen and cant do shit against them so they wont do anything against Iran either. Turkiye borders Iran and has historic ties and both equally hate the Kurds and given Israel's intent to attack Turkiye they are more focused there and wont do shit against Iran and they know damn well it cant rely on NATO. So as i said they will just write a strongly worded letter if any of the GCC is attacked. The Mecca pact is against Israel not Iran thats why there are reports of inviting Iran in to it too. How is Iran's military cooked? Do explain as all of it is underground now and US hasnt and cant do shit against it. Even bunker busters cant drill granite mountains

myazi321

How so? The GCC countries will just send a strongly worded letter thats it.

EquivalentOne241

They are claiming sovereignty over strait, not over the pipelines of GCC countries. They previously attacked because they had the excuse that they being attacked from those countries. What would be their excuse for unprovoked attacks on pipelines?

Sanpaku

BRICS nations have geopolitical interests that align with Iran's. There are alternatives for credit/trade settlement to the US-led Swift banking system. Historical US allies regard the affair as the schoolyard bully kicking a hornet's next and expecting those the bully has threatened, insulted, and tarrifed to join in. The GCC nations are incensed that Israel & the US started this war without consulting with them or obtaining their consent. Future historians may have to decide whether November 8, 2016 or February 28, 2026 better mark the end to the American century.

Junior_Post8222

But the GCC produced only 12% of global refined products vs almost twice that amount in crude before the war. The world has lost a lot more access to crude than refined products, so the increase in crude prices should exceed the increase in refined product prices. Refiners will go up, sure, but not as much because crude prices will eat at their profits. I also don't see this market phenomenon ending calmly. Either the US uses force to end things or demand destruction happens before any alternatives can replace the strait (leaning towards demand destruction). When we hit the peak before the crash, those who bought extractors early will be in a better place than those who bought refiners

Picks6x

Prepare to get fuked America $40T+ in debt at 6% you won't be able to get bonds for Jack fuking shit. And now the GCC countries will probably go whole sale on the bonds they hold. Japan will be next and sell there's off and then America will be off to the races for a depression

Misfiring

Iran is using this war to blackmail the GCC into paying them so that they stop attacking. I think UAE at least complied, not sure about others. However, a few billions here and there will do nothing to help Iran's economy that is in free fall. Inflation is currently between 60-90%, with food specifically at 120%. Iran also needs money to rebuild and replace all the missiles and factories that got destroyed, which means no money for the country itself (not that they have much to begin with). Iran's control (hostage) of Hormuz will become less relevant in a few years. Once the use of Hormuz is no longer relevant, Iran will have no more cards to play. China may donate a few weapons here and there, but not even China and Russia will give them top of the line AA weapons to deter US strikes, since US can and will analyse and counter them.

Kraul

Iran seems fine living with the pain. Can the GCC and the rest of the world live with it? Let’s also not forget the Caspian Sea. Iran can still send ships to Russia through the Caspian Sea without a blockade to worry about. US and Israel are gambling with geo politics and economics. Iran has more chips on the table because it’s gambling with its existence.

PurpleReign123

When? Not today, right? The US is out of ammo and defensive weapons. And the GCC countries (supposedly US allies) can’t take it anymore if Iran retaliates by firing missiles into their countries.

WorriedMushroom7085

On top of what everyone said regarding Iran can still shoot and degrade US bases in ME, Hormuz Strait remaining closed, there is also the matter of the GCC and Israeli allies pissing in everyone's ear about Trump surrendering. He can do his usual gloat of "he won", but he loses significant image and incurs major damage to his branding, which he cherishes more than his administration effectiveness.

CEOofBeanz

Didn’t know how soft GCC were until this war, marshmallow bois

Halbaras

The official/Axios line is that the Saudis phoned Trump up and requested him not to proceed with strikes. I suspect they may have told him they wouldn't permit the use of Saudi bases or airspace for the strikes. It's how they previously shut down 'Project Freedom' after he announced unilateral escort missions without ever bothering to consult the GCC. The Gulf States would be happy to see Iran crippled (although not collapsed), but they're not willing to deliberately risk their civilian infrastructure for more US bombing. It's increasingly clear that everyone else's interests (including those of US consumers and taxpayers) have been thrown under the bus for those of the warmongers in Tel Aviv and Washington.

radishr

The markets will take notice of the war if and when the energy infrastructure in the six GCC countries gets substantially destroyed. Damage has been minimal so far (most of Iran's missiles and drones get neutralized). When the supply shortages change from being a temporary problem to an unavoidably long-term one, the markets will start paying attention.

Spirited-Lawyer-8281

I doubt Iran asked him to hold off. More likely other GCC countries panicked.

RonBlake

GCC**

MajikoiA3When

Iran can hold said pipelines hostage. GCC are net importers who is going to export their oil if tankers don't bring in supplies? Asian economies are dependent on heavy crude from Middle East if their economies crash then their demand collapse will hurt world's economy? US is insulated yes just higher gas prices and inflation.

Ill_Ground_1572

Because the market is full of greed right now. But if the US wipes out Irans energy infrastructure and they in turn wipe out GCC energy infrastructure, the world is in big big big time shit. The great depression was a system collapse. This would be a molecule collapse. If it goes forward, and I hope it doesn't, were in bigger trouble than the stock market.

beginner75

This would force the GCC to join hitting Iran which is the eventual outcome.

StrategicallyLazy007

Not really sure why you think it's in Israel's interest to strike GCC countries oil and gas infrastructure

Fauster

I checked this AM and options prices were pretty close to spot. Unless stocks drop a bunch, there is no need for MM's to push markets up. If markets rally, the MM may try to push them down. I don't know their exact book. There might be trouble in Korea when Aug 5 looms and retail traders need the equivalent of $20k us cash in their account to buy leveraged 2x or 3x funds, so why wouldn't you buy more stock instead? This means a slow suck of money out of these ETFs, which hold Samsung and Hynix, where drag semis around via correlation the algos see. Oil and fertilizer stocks are strongish today, the biggest predictor of escalating weekend kinetic action. Nothing happens in this admin without big money moving money before the news prints. Yesterday's big rally is a needed precondition for markets to recover, but we don't always get V-shaped bottoms. If Trump starts taking out desal plants, more bridges and rail transport, and takes down the grid around Ban dar Abbas, Iran just warned that 1) It can hit a tanker crossing the Suez if they get a little lucky vs a static target. 2) they can take out the Yanbu pipeline, with 5-7 Mbpd flow, but the port can only offload \~4M bpd. Iran's asymmetric actions against GCC countries when Trump attacks Iran is the one thing that has advisers warning Trump not to go full Regard. Not investment advice. Have a diversified book. Don't trade on margin. You don't need to. Don't trade any 2x or 3x funds, they all exponentially decay to zero and reverse split. Never let the MM or trading on margin force your hand, let it force other people's hands. With a barbell, you can always decide to take on concentration risk of the algos or current events make the bottom fall out. This is the summer slump and it is not supposed to be peak slump this early. If you were going yachting, you would derisk too.

Fauster

There were massive foreign outflows in Korea that I didn't initially understand, but Wall Street knew that the Korean government was going to go more nanny state on Korean markets. I think 2x and 3x funds are toxic, but I still want them so I don't have to worry about wide spreads after a flash crash. Algos drive most of the market, and to the Algos, MU, my favorite stock still, should move in tandem with Korean memory via many pairs trades frameworks. Every crisis is an opportunity though. Wall Street got out because of the Aug 5th cliff and new Korean market regulations to hamstring retail, in my opinion. It took me a week to figure out why big money fled Korea. None of this helps Korea get out of emerging market baskets and into MSCI, which is really what they need. They might go even less free market and crack down on shorting. Who knows. They still suffer from 1998 Asian Contagion shell shock currenty-protection and market protection policies. These are policies that sound good on paper, but I think they only make volatility worse. I will be following foreign inflows into Korea, when they happen. Hedge funds are usually a bit ahead of me, but they have SOTA research. There is always a chance that Wall Street will buy the news shortly before or shortly after the Aug. 5 leveraged fund cliff. Another concern, we have been talking about the top end of the K hanging in there and still buying, supporting the economy, while the bottom 80% has been reducing its spending. I think Asia and the Mid East have shown signs of top-end stress. Luxury purchases are way down in GCC countries, predictably, but also in Asia. We are draining our SPR at record rates, though from near-record levels. China has stopped buying oil at scale, they have the biggest SPRs by far. When the US drain the SPR stimulus goes away, that could be real trouble and a real liquidity crisis. We see blowouts in AI complex CDS spreads, but no broader debt contagion, but, in a liquidity crisis, fundamentals won't shield you from short term losses. Wall street is back into IGV, the funding source for semis, and bidding up healthcare and Oil and fertilizer stocks, a standard flight-to-safety book. But big picture, a lot of cash flow machines with ramping top and bottom lines and ramping margins (all of memory right now from HBM to hard drives). The ramp in memory names perfectly coincided with the ramp in use of agentic frameworks. Is the first order signal (Anthropic makes more money every quarter) going down? If no, every crisis is an opportunity if you can hold risk long enough.

Thehealthygamer

Well there's not a damn thing the US or GCC can do about it, as has been proven in the last few months, so, iran will infact control the strait.

Sufficient-Skill9530

I don’t get you guys, do you think the only thing that exists is the abstraction of physical reality you experience through your computer screen? How many Russian refineries, oil terminals and tankers have been destroyed by Ukraine? What about infrastructure destroyed in the GCC? How much oil and products are transiting Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb? SPRs are being drawn to unsustainable levels and there’s no meaningful cushion left. China is restarting its teapot refineries to capture the current unprecedented crack spreads. Trumph and the Mossad outlet, Axios, can pump out endless fake news articles about an impending deal but none of that changes the physics of the situation. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

Just buy integrated oil producers like Exxon and Suncor. It doesn’t matter if the brainlet wants to TACO or not, too many GCC and Russian refineries are offline, integrated oil producers benefit from high oil prices and/or high crack spreads.

ActivatingEMP

Same sarticle also said Pakistan won't open negotiations unless they stop bombing the GCC and Saudis. Good luck with that without opening the strait, which would just mean they lose

Foriegn_Picachu

The US knew the GCC didn’t have the appetite for war and here we are

-Cthaeh

China likely had the largest oil reserves and possibly still does. They massively reduced imports when the strait closed to protect their exports. It would take quite awhile, with much larger events in the MEast to seriously disrupt China. The GCC and other sources, as well as much of the world, benefit by getting China oil.

Own-Recipe5908

GCC is probably overjoyed to be asked to pay the people who caused the problem in the first place.

Silver-Charming

US won, because Iran can do nothing significant with their shitty rockets. Strait blockage starts to be problem for Iran's oil export because GCC have bypass routes by pipelines. At this time export of natural gas, helium and fertilizers from persian gulf is the problem. It will not tank broad economy like crude shortage can. Iran will fold

Silver-Charming

It will if oil goes up. For oil to go up Iran must retaliatate and attack GCC. If they dont do this eow it means their threats mean nothing. They must decide to either fire the world or surrender. In my opinion they will surrender. Their military power is unsufficient to harm GCC (like destroying pipelines that bypasses SoH transport) and they know this. We will have peace talk in Pakistan in incoming week.

Ajenthavoc

How? Pipe it to the red sea where houthies can shut down the bab al mandab? Or pipe it to the Mediterranean through unstable Syria or Israel, in the direction of Hezbollah and away from their primary Asian markets? They can get as creative as they want, in the end the Gulf is a critical access for the GCC countries and Iran has shown that it's reach is regional. These countries will struggle, but since Mar 1st, we haven't even seen Iran respond in a way that is on par with their True Promise 2 attack back in 2024. Why? Probably has to do with timing of the spr drawdown which is still going down 5-7 MMbbl weekly.

Sufficient-Skill9530

Kharg island has been hit. Fuuuuuuck. Oil is going to moon after Iran responds against GCC infrastructure and closes Hormuz totally again. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

Question is, what does Iran do? Iran and the GCC seem to be on better terms, so it’s unlikely that Iran retaliates on gulf infrastructure. They could attack a US ship, but that is a big escalation.  You know what I have been thinking about, did you know that Israel produces like 95% of the bromine that Taiwan and South Korea use for their chips? If Iran wants to wreck the global economy they don’t need to impact crude oil, if Iran hits ICL Sodom, in Israel’s southern desert, the AI build out is wrecked. Such a crazy single point of failure. 

BigMisterLawyerDude

Israel ended up costing the U.S. And its GCC slaves $300 billion. Calls I guess

not_my_monkeys_

Do you really believe that Trump hasn’t already won this war because he hasn’t cared to try hard enough? Or because he’s afraid of international judgement? Come on now. He expended the vast majority of the US stockpile of advanced missiles and missile interceptors, pushed the US stock market to the edge of collapse, and Iran’s regime held on until Trump lost his nerve and backed off. Twice now, including today. The only way to remove the regime is with a massive ground invasion, which is unthinkable. Sure, we could genocide the whole country at any time. Power plants and desalination plants are their weak point. But before they died, they would do the same to the infrastructure of the surrounding GCC countries, and thus demolish the global economy. It’s mutually assured economic destruction.

tripping_on_phonics

This war with Iran is the worst strategic defeat in the history of the United States. We have: \- Wrecked our relationships with GCC countries \- Wrecked our relationships with allies in Europe and Asia, who suffer economically through no fault of their own \- Significantly and permanently diminished our imperial influence in the Middle East \- Tied our international reputation to that of Israel, which is increasingly viewed as a pariah \- Largely exhausted our inventory of standoff munitions and interceptor missiles \- Transformed the Strait of Hormuz from an open waterway into an Iran-administered waterway \- Exposed the fact that we are unable to defeat Iran, a middle power with significantly less resources \- Exposed the fact that our concept of warfighting is completely insufficient against more significant adversaries, like China \- Exposed the fact that our massive investment in military spending was a waste, and easily opposed by significantly cheaper weapons systems \- Undermined our credible military deterrence \- Undermined our diplomatic credibility \- Severely damaged the world economy …I can go on. There is simply no version of this that makes Trump look good.

ResponsibleAnt8049

and he’s being fr too. GCC will be cooked.

ResponsibleAnt8049

!banbet GCC & Iranian infrastructure in shambles 1W

Mallev

Plus all the oil infra in the GCC would be kinda broken by then. Wouldn’t be any oil to ship anyway.

ResponsibleAnt8049

infrastructure strikes on iran, and then the GCC gets the same in retaliation.

Tall-Illustrator543

Netanyahu and Trump working on getting GCC countries into the fight. Nightmare fuel

DREAMS_OF_BOKEH

This is strange bc most of America's petrol products come from Canada not the GCC... where can you link this info?

julian_jakobi

But one is not buying then. It’s today at a laughable market cap of below $40 Million. Price is what you pay and value is what you get. Five material updates in roughly 100 days. The progress is real and and I believe the validation through global partners will result in rocketing revenues: ✅ Lake Stockholm AEC install - done. January 27, 2026. Live. In the ground. Under NJDEP & EPA monitoring. First real-world municipal PFAS deployment. ✅ Clyra first stocking order - secured February 2026 through Advanced Solution’s national US distribution network. Hospitals. Clinics. Revenue starting. ✅ Clyra Al Hikma deal - signed May 5, 2026. Exclusive Middle East + North Africa distribution for ViaCLYR™. GCC, Levant, and adjacent markets. ✅ $1.2M Minerals Contract signed - April 20, 2026 BioLargo Engineering providing its expertise in designing and engineering the pilot-scale facility. ✅ New MOU signed - May 3, 2026. Another AEC partnership in motion (Aquatech) + revenues started to recover from Q4 lows.

Opposite_Day_9771

They are moving some by rail up north via the stans. I'm not sure how much capacity they have. It's a game of chicken to see who folds first. My bet would be the GCC. 90% of the population in some areas are expats. Citizens are all rich living the high life. Iranians would eat dirt if they have to. They are not going to cave and will hold out for a good deal.

DesticularDorsion

I've been saying. After the hajj, we probably go hot again. He can't have missiles flying through Saudi airspace when there are pilgrims trying to return home. He would alienate all the Sunnis in the GCC.

wafflingzebra

hardware design licensing has to be one of the world's worst rackets. All this money to essentially use the hardware equivalent of GCC (a verilog compiler), nevermind additional licenses for things like timing analysis, PD routing and placement, DFT insertion, power analysis, even waveform viewers.

Icy_Jelly_315

Yeah the very confident word was 6 months ago that a gazillion petrodollars was going to get invested in AI by the GCC nations to keep the bubble going. That is out of the window and US mom n pop retirement accounts have to step up and fill the gap

FirstAtEridu

After the GCC, Turkey, China, the EU, the Soviet Union, the Centauri Republic, Ferengi Alliance and Mordor who's left who else needs to be part of the deal? I just want to make some money...

fools_eye

[](https://www.reddit.com/user/UNEXPECTED_PREQUEL/)🥭 is now forcing the GCC to sign onto the Abraham Accords after the Iran deal. LMAOOO saudi might as well sabotage the deal themselves

13jfncjai31

Yes, if the US cannot credibly protect the GCC states from attacks and guarantee the free and open passage of international shipping what incentive does anyone have to use dollars as the global currency? Thats the trade, US keeps oceans safe and the world uses dollars. The deal is not being held up on our end, hence bond market yields skyrocketing. A bum deal maybe makes line go up temporarily, but structurally it would erode the US global standing and instigate our debt spiral. If we leave and make a bum deal with Iran, that doesn’t mean Israel takes it sitting down. Israel will go gloves off against Iran and probably blow up Kharg, south pars, everything. The Iranian response will be so severe the US will have to reengage kinetically just to save the gulf from extinction. We’re talking Iranian strikes on nuclear plants, desal plants, all oil infrastructure, the Red Sea strait probably closed too, activating the global terror network. It’s going to be ugly, and reality will catch up to markets eventually whether they like it or not. When it comes to bond market vs equity market the bond market wins every time

Provolone-Jones

lol my original point is that permanent damage is unlikely as evidenced by 2020 shut ins. Then you asked ChatGPT, which proves my point that the alternatives to the GCC are limited, thereby leading to shut ins. The remainder of your AI slop is just “Iran is dumber than the GCC”

Adii2311

You have the confidence of a politician and the knowledge of doorknob but you made me learn something new more deeply so thanks. Key DifferencesTechnical Vulnerability: Iran’s wells are generally more mature and have lower pressure than those in the GCC. Shutting them down carries a high risk of permanent reservoir damage, as waxy substances like paraffins can clog the pipes and rock pores during a halt. Resource Access: The GCC has access to the world’s top petroleum engineering firms to safely manage "shut-ins" and eventual restarts. Iran, under heavy sanctions, lacks the specialized equipment and expertise to prevent long-term damage during a prolonged shutdown. Storage Limits: Iran is estimated to have only 12 to 22 days of storage left before it is physically forced to stop pumping. In contrast, some GCC members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited alternative routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, though nations like Qatar and Kuwait are as stranded as Iran

Provolone-Jones

Lmao you realize pipelines have a maximum capacity and that GCC countries have already implemented shut-ins, right? Oh wait, you don’t.

Provolone-Jones

Assuming that is true (unlikely it is) the same permanent damage is already occurring to the other GCC countries, thereby making the drop to $90 all the more inexplicable.

FeaturePotential4562

It’s not the same problem: it’s substantially worse. GCC countries are wondering why they host US bases if that only makes them a target, but doesn’t grant them any input on US middle East policy, and it’s clear the US can’t or won’t defend them if attacked. Iran may ban their exports if they are sold in USD, and that puts in danger the petrodollar. Luckily China doesn’t seem to be interested in Yuan being the global currency. Israel has been exposed as being overly aggressive and ambitious. The first week of the attack they were talking about how Turkey is now the enemy. They are looking more and more like an inviable state as is. Europe is wondering why their major ally seems to work overtime against its interests. Europeans are itching to move closer East and reduce the exposure to unstable American chicaneries. South Korea and Japan are deeply hurting. They are applying painful measures to reduce oil demand and are considering how to reduce US army presence on their land.

tinydisaster

Absolutely, but kinda looks like GCC doesn’t want their shit blown to hell either.

DesticularDorsion

I'm sure all the financial stress on the GCC and Asia won't fuck up the treasury market. US is cooked. I hope the strait stays closed. 

ActivatingEMP

They need either the tolls or nukes. The GCC will not tolerate tolls as it allows Iran to control the oil market, and the US and Israel will not tolerate nukes. We are in a double bind because there are too many involved parties with different wants

e-alromaithi

Yeah so banks in GCC advertise rates as “fixed-rate” rather than reducing rate so you would have to convert that to a reducing rate which is more reflective on how exactly the bank will deduct interest/profit from the monthly EMI. 2.7% fixed Would be sub 5% reducing I guess.

ResponsibleAnt8049

lol in addition to all vital GCC infrastructure being targeted by EOW, nearly all fed members signaled hikes yesterday.

LarryStink

GCC oil money -> us bonds/bills (denominated in USD) cash equivalent.  That liquidity is gone as shut ins and damaged infrastructure halts production and hormuz closure removes export capabilities.  Net Oil importers (Japan, and most of asia, Europe, Aus, etc.) Scrambling for dollars to fund increasing energy costs(mostly denominated in USD) sell assets to fund liabilities. Mostly US bonds stocks and gold.   This is the current regime we are in for the foreseeable future.