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I firmly believe trump is forcing GCC trust funds to prop up the market and keep shorting crude.
> Can someone explain what is causing this positive price action? Vibes, we are not gonna nuke Iran, looks like Iran is not gonna go buck wild on the GCC countries. Earning season for banks, AI is back in play... I mean its all fucking made up at the end of the day. The market is kinda detached from everyday America, which I dont care WTF Bloomberg tells me our economy is fucked. The US capitial markets are like an Amoeba that just retracts if it gets poked. If you pick the right direction, you can make a lot of money... not sure if thats just because of ease of access and retail investors + weekly 401k dumps, or whatever... but IMO everything id acting utterly irrationally.
i don’t understand how we’re higher than we were before the war, with oil nearly 2x as expensive and the strait still effectively blocked and a lot of the infrastructure in the GCC and iran destroyed
I would want Strait to open for all unconditionally, like it was before asap. Lot many people have lost their jobs, companies their businesses in the GCC region. How it happens I leave it to Mr. Trump.
Am I missing something? opening the Strait of Hormuz, which is an international waterway, does not change the blockade of Iranian Ports. It's opening the waterway used by the world to access GCC markets, to allow commerce through.
They absolutely do though. Iran is just gonna start blowing up infrastructure in the GCC nations again unless the US walks away entirely
This market is being manipulated into oblivion. Wouldn’t surprise me if there were to be tons of shorts trapped and they get fucked hard once the supply shock hits the entire global economy. Why would oil suddenly recover overnight after all that war destruction to the GCC’s? That’s going to take at least months, if not a year+ to fix and recover from
If you can give me an iota of evidence , counter to the points I have provided above , I will be inclined to concede. Democrats will for sure win the next election , but won’t gain any of the global trust. The GCC and the EU understand , that US foreign policy is not in their interest , and often times not even in the interest of US herself often. They want a stable world order. Biden and Democrats were instrumental in destroying that. Carny and Macron didn’t say , oh we will wait for Trumps presidency to end and we will do Dems to do the right thing. They have said very clearly and Loudly, that it’s time to move on from US as a reliable partner “period”
A little bird told me that Trump’s made the GCC pay protection money via the stock market. Make of that what you will.
GCC countries being dumped in real time.
Market believes: * More GCC exports will move by pipeline to the Red Sea * Venezuela’s production will first recover to pre Chavez levels, then exceed it * Alberta’s separatist vote (even if the courts suppress it) will stimulate Ottawa find ways to get more Canadian oil production to market * China will continue to electrify by building coal powered plants * U.S. oil companies will produce more oil > Israel is destroying entire villages in Lebanon Utterly irrelevant to the U.S. stock market, or any stock market for that matter.
Chinese tankers carrying oil from GCC ports are sailing through fine. Only ships from Iranian ports are subject to US blockade, that’s around 11% of oil which flows through the strait. A large chuck of Iranian oil has already crossed the strait and is in the high seas. China also has plenty of reserves to make up for any potential gaps. I don’t see any reason why markets should freak out, yet.
And? Now iran is threatening china’s oil supplies if they strike at other GCC crude ships. Which would entice china to tell iran to back down. US is blocking Iranian ports, not GCC.
I get that oil companies are extremely hesitant to invest in higher cost oil infra if they’re not confident that oil prices will remain high in the future. But honestly I think it’s highly unlikely that oil prices will drop to 2025 levels anytime soon. It would probably take one or more of the following events: 1. Total capitulation by the US or Iran and return to confidence in freedom of navigation in SoH (unlikely). Note that a land invasion or Iranian civil war would likely not provide enough stability for this. 2. Investment in oil processing technology to reduce the costs of currently more expensive oil fields. This is happening but is really slow. 3. Miraculous discovery of new oil fields that are cost competitive (unlikely). 4. Investment in clean energy tech that reduces the demand for oil and thus the price of oil. This is also happening but is slow, although the rate of progress is different in different places. Out of all of these outcomes 4 seems the most promising, and also helps solve climate change which we want anyway. Even if the conflict is resolved it’s an overall win to move to renewables. Prior to this there just wasn’t the economic incentive when oil was still cheap. But it’ll still take time and countries like China and the EU are much more advanced in this than the US or global south. In regard to pipelines and other overland transportation, it’s an option but Iran has shown it’s very capable of striking infrastructure targets in the GCC. You can bury the pipeline (which is expensive) but then Iran can still strike wells and ports. I think it’s less about how much infra the GCC has, and more about how well it can be protected or how well Iran can be contained and unable to project power in the gulf.
The US is blockading a country it is in war with. It will say it has every right to do so. What is China gonna do? Blow through a USN CSG? No one (even Iran) is foolish enough to do that. Barring a diplomatic solution, China really cannot do shit here. As for the earlier trade war, China had time to sign deals with other countries and US-China trade war was a mutual destruction, so the US had to retrace its policies. This case is different. The US doesn't need oil from the ME. It can blockade the entire strait for longer than China can sustain. This time even GCC are in support of curbing Iran's powers.
I’d assumed Trump wrangle the GCC countries to buy up the stock market massively in return for his protection.
If tonight Iran bomb 85% of GCC energy capacity, SPY will gap up to 695, CRDO to 250 and NBIS to 200 Got it now, ez
The way I’m reading the news of 121 tankers leaving Hormuz to come to the US is that expectations are at least 16 more days of closure. Up to 44 days if some of those ships are going to India. I haven’t seen the makeup of the 121 ships origin or destination countries be detailed yet. So that means that the strait is likely to remain closed for a couple weeks to a month longer at the least, all the while the production of certain things like sulfuric acid and helium are semi-permanently reduced (think chip making). Oil pipelines have ramped up to full capacity but this is a percentage increase from normal flow, so not anywhere near the 20M barrels per day that normally leave the GCC through the strait. This ignores the other ~4M barrels per day that normally leave Bab el-Mendeb route, which I’m sure for insurance reasons alone some ships (their owners) won’t be navigating in the same term, and has been threatened for closure already. I’ll continue to ignore this but leave it on the radar until closed, but should be mathed out by someone with more time than me for actual export loss. So for another .5-1 month of *delayed* shipment is the very least right now and that’s the optimistic view. The pessimistic view is of course much cloudier with no timeline of reopening, potential for other energy routes to be tolled (or tolled heavier, think Panama Canal etc), and a general bearish call for loss of all hope. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, and likely to be toward the optimistic side as the economies currently doing battle need to fund the battle itself in order to remain potent. So is it looking good for oil prices in the near term? Idk man I work at Wendy’s. You want fries with that?
Yeah yeah now try to spin a Fckin narrative around what is pure manipulation. The reality is that the US is forcing the GCC trust funds to keep this market afloat, plain and simple.
we are one tweet and one drunken decision away from all energy facilities being flattened in iran and the GCC this just can’t be priced in already. we’re already missing hundreds of tankers of oil per day. the market is fundamentally broken from reality
US admin is trying to keep the market propped up through manipulation through GCC trust funds.
This is a gun point rally. GCC trust funds have been forced to prop up US markets.. there is no logic to the rally.
Because US admin is forcing the GCC trust funds to prop up the US markets and keep shorting oil futures. The President had said that GCC countries will have to pay for this war with Iran. How they will pay, you were never told.
Yes. That’s the part I don’t get. Won’t there soon be a physical energy shortage throughout Asia, Australia, and soon the EU? 5 ships per day doesn’t fix that. Why doesn’t the market have more concern about this reality? Paper oil price won’t be real compared with spot price. And who can assure delivery from GCC?
No way bro. The full scale invasion of Ukraine was just the start of the great 21st century Cold War. Many thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed by Iranian drones. GCC nations are united against Iran now.
No lol the GCC would never accept a blockade. The GCC would blockade themselves and bypass.
Yes. The GCC states are firmly against Iran. They see Israel and Lebanon as separate to their own sovereignty that Iran is threatening.
The GCC states are not ‘firmly in a coalition’. If you believe that you have no idea about the politics in the Middle East. The GCC states don’t support Israel’s attack on Lebanon. The GCC states are only supporting the U.S to the extent they want the straits open for their oil and gas. Their fear is if the U.S left, it becomes a permanent toll booth.
Honestly it’s because Iran’s only leverage is targeting civilian shipping. This is a double edged sword and now that everyone knows that they want to do this, bypasses will be expanded and built. I expect a slow cessation of hostilities that leave Iran in hyperinflation and economic collapse. GCC nations will not accept a blockade by a rump state without a military.
Probably the optimal move in a mediocre situation. Forces China to pressure Iran, cuts off Iranian revenue. GCC states have partial reroute that can be improved in coming months and aren’t under active attack.
Will Iran let GCC loaded ships pass through?
It’s not just moving from one investment to another one. Some people need liquidity to buy real stuff. GCC countries for example must be hurting badly.
don't forget about the GCC countries who have lost a ton of export revenue in USD but still have to import things
I mean they are not doing shit to American ships though. There will be carpet bombing over Iran before they can take out a USS. I don't condone violence though, just being realistic. The only leverage Iran has is it can lash out at GCC countries and occasionally shoot at passing container ships. That's not equivalent to taking out USS.
Iran was prepared to mine the Strait. This causes the GCC more pain than Iran, with Iran not having to do anything, its like that scene from Dark Knight Rises where the army actually helps keep the Gotham citizenry hostages unintentionally. What does Trump think the price of oil will be by Friday?? He is so stupid he thinks Iran will capitulate in a day of the blockade being in place
i would build a railroad 🚂🚃🚃🚃 from Kuwait 🇰🇼 all the way to Southern Oman 🇴🇲 carrying crude freight- a dedicated crude corridor from all GCC States 🧐
Except it turns out pretty much every country would rather deal with Iran than with the US, Israel, and the GCC.
That's today. That's not China's goal. It would start with China buying a portion of its oil from the GCC in yuan and building relationships from there.
> If any country on that list, for example, China, refuses to be interdicted, it will lead to both a faster de-dollarization and a broad display of weakened American control over global trade. If the Strait is left in Iran & China's control that would happen anyways. China would push for oil markets to trade in yuan all across the GCC.
Oh you mean the pipelines that got attacked last week? https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en/2026/03/14/SIUIYVMM6RGLDKI4RLSLMOPHE4/#:~:text=Fujairah%20Port%20is%20located%20in,port%20to%20Asia%20and%20Europe. I didn’t call UAE “completely insolvent”, they’re in the best position out of the gulf countries I guess but given that the vast majority of the gulf economies are supported almost entirely by hydrocarbon exports with some finance and real estate and tourism peppered in, i still don’t see how they aren’t fried. Who would ever want to voluntarily travel somewhere where bombs are flying overhead? Tourism industry is cooked. Same with finance, the facade of stability is required for investors to put money into your country. Who would ever invest in the gulf states now even if the war ended tomorrow it won’t chance the fact that the illusion of stability is gone. The keystone of the gulf states economies has been not just removed with the blockade (and the USA is now enforcing one as well), but actively damaged. It will take years to get exports to any appreciable pre war level, and right now the GCC are suddenly facing: a) effectively zero revenue from hydrocarbon exports + tourism (Saudi still has 10% from the pipeline, not that it matters microscopically) b) billions of dollars in infrastructure repairs c) billions of dollars in defense spending Where are they going to get the money to fund all this plus their welfare states and government exactly? I don’t think they’ll have any choice but to start liquidating their sovereign wealth funds after their cash reserves are gone. I really like the part where you miss my point and act like a condescending ass. Hope you bought the “ceasefire” dip
Why not let the GCC ships pass? We can easily identify the Iranian ships and seize/block.
So let’s starve the people in the GCC and then what’s the plan when China shows up with its navy that disagrees? SMH
Iran yearly oil export is less than GCC 2 week export. Orango hasn't done the math correctly i think...
I guess we'll see what happens then, don't know how GCC will react to this given that some Chinese vessel did carry non-Iran crude through the strait, now even that will be gone.
> And the big one: migrating from Windows Active Directory, Group Policy, Exchange Oh, about this I completely agree. I have seen myself a failed attempt to make administrative personnel move from Linux to Windows. I want to see what happens with France, but I am as sceptical as you about it. I was just discussing > A sovereign Linux stack means you also need driver support for every piece of hardware your government touches printers, NICs, GPUs, biometric readers. Manufacturers write drivers for mainline, not your fork. The only reason why Europe would need to fork is if the US tries to close Linux. The fork becomes the mainline the very moment this happens. Unless Europe gets put under some sort of global embargo, manufacturers will race to write all that is needed. > Security response for zero-days that won't wait for your team to catch up with upstream. Toolchain maintenance, think GCC/LLVM, glibc, systemd… Yeah, not "ours" but the money required falls in the same ballparks, completely manageable.
The kernel is the easy part. A sovereign Linux stack means you also need driver support for every piece of hardware your government touches printers, NICs, GPUs, biometric readers. Manufacturers write drivers for mainline, not your fork. Then you need a desktop environment, package manager, and userland tooling… an entire distro. Security response for zero-days that won't wait for your team to catch up with upstream. Toolchain maintenance, think GCC/LLVM, glibc, systemd… also not yours. Certification and compliance for every agency deploying it. And the big one: migrating from Windows Active Directory, Group Policy, Exchange, blah, blah, blah, every internal app that assumes Windows exists. Your $40M gets you a kernel fork. Period. Actually replacing Windows across a government costs billions and a decade of integration hell. Google LiMux, Munich spent 10+ years on it, and went back to Windows.
It must be so nice to be a GCC country, have your ally USA start a war from your territory, just bail after ruining your economy for the foreseeable future, then brag about profiting from it.
Oil will hit $200 the GCC will be abandoned.
negotiation falls through, Iran bombs GCC oil facilities, nukes will begin flying monday opens -0.15%
US still does physical safety of GCC countries. Everyone hedges though.
Iran not showing to peace talks, Drones in GCC, Drones in Iran, bombs in Lebanon. So the only country that is not attacking anyone now is the US. So it's not an iran-us ceasefire. It is us-us ceasefire.
This is where you're wrong. The US grabbed Venezuela oil and cut a deal with Indonesia before the war started. If Israel or the US destroy Iran's oil infrastructure and Iran retaliates and destroy GCC's oil, the world would go into a depression. However, US ends up controlling 52% of the existing world's oil. China would collapse internally with economic armageddon. The AI race would effectively be over. The price for US hegemony for the next 50 years is a single POTUS and perhaps some Republican representatives. That's a small price to pay considering WW3 with super powerful China is a possibility.
> The normalized relations with GCC states will also suffer as they are pretty bitter that the US has prioritized defending Israel while they took heavy pounding from Iran. LOL i get you hate Israel, but this war drove the GC states towards Israel, not away. They have not achieved any of YOUR goals, fine. They absolutely achieved some or even the majority of their goals, including the assassination of Khameni, who was responsible for the largest Jewish massacre since the holocaust. If you cannot see that as a war goal achievement, you are blinded by your hatred of Israel.
depends how long you think disruptions will last and what are the linger effect of getting GCC OG facilities back up + restore normal traffic in the strait. I would also assume a lot of countries will be building deeper reserves and there is also the nat gas story with data centers. XLE is pretty good play
Israel both control USA but is also a pawn. While it’s possible Israel fucked the USA on this one, I don’t think it’s the case. I think USA and Israel both agreed to break the ceasefire nearly immediately. USA and Israel have the same goal. No it’s not to defeat Iran. It’s actually the destruction of the GCC. But they can’t destroy it themselves. So they will poke Iran incessantly until Iran destroys the GCC. Then they’ll bomb Iran. USA will fuck off to North America. USA and Israel have agreed to make Israel the dominant power in Middle East. But the actual dominant power in Middle East isn’t Iran. It’s the USA through the GCC. So before Israel is made the center of the Middle East, Trump must conspire with Israel to destroy USA military power in the region through destruction of USA bases and the petrodollar. As depraved as Israel just not listening to USA or Israel “owning” Trump , the truth is actually far more depraved. They may have things on Trump but do not get it twisted; Trump is happy to work along Israel for destruction of USA hegemony because it would allow his children to be kings of North America.
The plan is to destroy the GCC then move on Greenland Cuba Mexico and Canada
Funny that you think Israel didn’t break the ceasefire with USA permission let alone USA order. The ceasefire was never meant to last. Donald’s goal is to have Iran destroy the GCC, send Iran back to the Stone Age , and end USA world hegemony. To embrace a multipolar world retreat back to the northern hemisphere and take control of American continent. This cannot happen with a ceasefire. Here’s what actually happened: USA fucked up a ground invasion that turned into a rescue mission. They had to nope the fuck out and then asked for a few days of “ceasefire” to regroup. They regrouped and gave Israel a green light.
Eh, the Strait of Hormuz will never have as much value as prior to the war. The single biggest infrastructure priority for the GCC will be to rapidly build pipelines across the peninsula, which will take a couple years. Unless Iran would initiate war and destroy those, that means the Gulf will just see far fewer ships.
Ok, so what boats are they blowing up? Iran has ports on either side of the strait, so they dont need to pass through it. They also have plenty of pipelines out, so unlike the gulf states, they have alternatives. Iran has no Navy, and can still block the strait because it has ample other military capabilities. It also doesnt have to use the strait if it doesnt want to. Its not the same comparison. Iran controls the strait but isnt reliant on it. The GCC nations dont control the strait, but are reliant on it. Gulf states can whine all they want, they cant open the straits on their own, or exact enough damage on Iran to convince Iran to open them.
After this shit is over, I’m expecting a fundamental repositiong of the GCC. American power as we know it, is over in the middle east and obviously with repercussions beyond. This was the dumbest decision of the 21st century.
It’s way too early to say America won. Iran’s military was badly hurt and their leader was killed, but their government is still running and still fighting. They have an ability to strike GCC and Israeli targets. The Strait of Hormuz is one of Iran’s biggest weapons because so much of the world’s oil passes through it. And NATO doesn’t get involved in Middle East wars, that’s not really what they’re for.
Its in crypto or Chinese Yuan. You would be a fool even to welcome it in USD. The GCC has issues, but they are no where near as bad or unpredicable as Iran.
So making NATO pay their bills, making Japan/SK/GCC invest trillions into America, making Canada lay their fair share and getting China to sign an unfavourable deal is losing? Not to mention destroying Iran
China and Iran are the biggest winners by a long shot. The GCC are already moving away from the US, Qatar expelled US troops from it's country. Bahrain plans to do the same... I would assume that they all do it. Why would you invest in an unreliable ally that can't even project a consistent message much less the power to support it.
Russia yes. Israel didn't get anything they wanted except degradation of Iran. No regime change or collapse, no removal of nuclear material, no destruction of Hizbullah, a loss in world public opinion etc. They are the biggest losers along with the GCC in 2nd place. The only clear winner is Russia.
Capital markets will always choose to work with stable and predictable, even if authoritarian nations. The US has shown it is not only authoritarian under whatever guise it has assumed but its alliance and words aren't worth the paper it is written on. I was downvoted in a comment when I said China, Russia, Europe, the GCC are watching. Taiwan's representative is slated to meet Xi in a historical meeting to promote peace.
Literally just status quo from the last 5 weeks. Strait still closed unless you pay $2M petroyuans, Israel still annexing Lebanon, Iran still slowly dismantling GCC oil infrastructure, 🥭 still a liar even when he says things people want to hear.
If their was legitimate intelligence Iran was trying to acquire a nuclear weapon it wouldn't be the GCC it would be multiple countries invading
They are not, they haven't achieved any of their goals. Not only regime change didn't happen, it got way stronger/radical. Previously, Iran was ready to make many concessions which they are no longer willing to make, they are making demands instead now. This war may also weaken Israeli lobby in the US in the long term, as there has been a growing voice against it in both sides of the political spectrum and this was has given them a new strength. The normalized relations with GCC states will also suffer as they are pretty bitter that the US has prioritized defending Israel while they took heavy pounding from Iran.
Question is not if Trump is done with Iran. That’s been clear for 4 weeks now. It’s if Iran is done with Trump. Maybe they allow just enough oil through to their Asian customers, but throttle the GCC countries still for years? Who knows at this point.
I think Iran's threat towards GCC infrastructure is what gave them the biggest leverage. I do not think it will be possible for those states to have intercepters AND Israel. Israel was 100% wanting the entire Arab world to burn around them, but the US, apparently was not okay with their Petrol Vassals imploding.
Because even though China is friendly with Iran, having complete chaos in the region where the majority of Asia’s oil supply is coming from is terrible for everyone on that side of the sphere. If Iranian oil infrastructure is destroyed, and they retaliate against GCC I structure. It doesn’t matter who “controls the strait” beaches no oil is going to flow. Saudi and Pakistan have a military alliance as well.
You are smoking something. Political and military analysts shares this view most of whom are ex - oil advisors to companies in the GCC, including ex -white house ambassador. It's surprising you find this surprising.
Whatever the reason for the US conceding, this does signal to the world about the (already) unreliable support of the US. The GCC has, for decades, been allied with the US. Yesterday, the US decision to agree to a ceasefire, with Iran continuing to fire projectiles to the GCC members, says everything. Taiwan, China, Russia and the world is watching.
The ceasefire won't work because the demand of Iran is highly unacceptable in Israel favour:- Iran right to enrich uranium must be recognized = This does not sit well to Satanyahu as he is the one who have been bragging about Iran enriching uranium for years. This is one of reason why Israel drag US into this war in the first place Cancellation of all IAEA security council resolutions against Iran = Almost the same on the above Withdrawal of US military forces from the region = Won't work because the US somehow want the grip of middle east. This does not favour the Israeli as they will lose their ally and left alone in the middle east. Also a lot of GCC countries have sponsor the US to become their 'defender' The US must guarantee non-aggression = The US might abide on this but it is the Israeli who gonna go rogue
I know this isn't what you mean, but 10M would be $65 and 50M is $85. It could just be that the price of oil is too high. Plus, the GCC right now is scrambling to build pipelines around the hormuz, now that they've learned the USA can't protect them, so within a few years it will be much less of a problem.
The GCC never trusted Iran and this has pushed them closer to Israel than anything. MBS is whispering in trumps ear to get rid of this regime.
It’s not nothing gained. It’s actually at great loss. The GCC allies of the US are maybe univestable now, the Iranians control the flow (and thus the price) of oil through the whole region. And, some energy infrastructure is offline for months if not years still. This is clearly a degraded capability.
If the US rolls over on these terms, I think the suez comparison is apt, an inability to achieve strategic aims due to a lack of political and (to some extent) military power. On the other hand the GCC states and Saudi can't hand this much power to Iran either. Prediction: now that that shooting has stopped negotiations will drag out forever and both sides will claim key wins but net net is Iran is much stronger afterwards.
People thinking trump would actually do the bombing kinda highlights to me how regarding some WSB users are. Trumps TACO was so obvious - he could not carry through with his threat as the GCC wouldve been razed. The GCC give him plane, give his son in law billions to management. They lube him up. It was impossible for his to do this. His allies would lose 100s of Bills
You underestimate how grossly incompetent GCC countries leadership are. These are the people who invested on the order of 1 trillion on Trump-Kushner and got shafted. They don’t learn anything. If anything they will double down.
Troops are largely evacuated already. Entirely from iraq, many other bases are ghost towns, with troop holed up in hotels and defences seriously damaged, to the tune of billions of dollars. Besides, I fail to see why GCC monarchies will still want those bases; their population HATES them. They have proven to be missile magnets rather than deterrence against Iran, and proved utterly pointless and unable in defending the GCC states or keeping the straight open. All they did was track missiles for Israel. If I was qatar or SA or Kuwait.. I would kick out the US and invite the chinese to take over those bases to help keep stability in the region.
The Arab investors who fund Kushners bullshit wouldn't be too happy either if this war continues. Trump is legit caught in a conundrum. He has to satisfy Russia, the GCC and Israel at the same time + has to entertain the US voter base because of the incoming midterms. Guy is fucked.
Trump ‘didn’t have good options’ but to take the ceasefire deal, analyst says Trump’s hand was forced to accept a ceasefire deal with Iran because he “does not have any good options” on the table, an Iran foreign policy expert has said. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Trita Parsi, of the Quincy Institute, said a wider US-Israeli war with Iran would “destroy the Trump presidency”. “He was talking a big game about escalatory steps, but everyone in the region knew that if you go after Iran’s energy resources and power plants, the Iranians would retaliate against GCC states and we would have a much, much worse energy crisis than we have now,” Parsi said. “He needed to get out of this. He made his threats earlier today to give the appearance that an agreement he would come to by this evening was done on his terms,” Parsi noted. “But when you actually look at it, it appears that we wasn’t. Even his own statement said that the negotiations will be based on the 10-point plan of the Iranians, which is a much more reasonable plan.” [https://aje.news/9k7fl9?update=4471520](https://aje.news/9k7fl9?update=4471520)
Not defending Trump, huge mistake to start this war. Here's how it 'ends' with both sides 'happy' 1. Reparations - Trump is going to lift sanctions and will provide 'aid' through the remnants of USAID. This will be money and food, which Iran needs to reduce water usage for crops which has caused an almost total collapse of their water system. Trump will also lift some sanctions (Venezuela style). 2. Uranium - The US will acknowledge Iran's right to enrich, to a non-nuclear standard, basically the previous deal Obama negotiated. IAEA will monitor 3. Control of Strait - US will acknowledge that the Strait is "managed" by Iran and Oman commission but can't charge tolls. What does the US get: 1. Iran will conduct oil sales in USD. Iran DGAF about the Yuan and was using USD previously. 2. Iran won't be allowed to sell weapons to 'terrorists' basically ending Iran's proxies. Iran knows it's proxies deterrent failed anyway, and they need to rebuild the Iran military before support regional partners anyway (although they may continue to arm houthis to control the red sea). 3. Iran, US, GCC and Israel stop hostilities. Israel knew they couldn't topple Iran, as did the US, but if they can turn Iran from hostile to distrustful that's a big win for Israel in particular. This is the crown jewel for the US & Israel and is part of the US strategy of flipping middle powers from China to US. Cuba, Venezuela and Iran are all aligned against the US and therefore would align with China. Plus it reinforces petrodollar dominance. If the US gets this, they functionally win. Now will Iran be a friendly? No. But they effective neuter Iran, force the GCC to oblige the US lest they restart hostilities and shore up power through the USD. Ultimately the US fucked up here. But the US strategy is genuinely to open simmering conflicts to expand power. It's a bad strategy in the long term, because the US is showing itself to be a bully rather than a reliable partner. It's forcing allies and enemies to re-arm and will ultimately lead to a multi-polar order as the US lead collation fades as allies get fed up with bending the knee. Each conflict also leaves the US massively exposed for other corners of the globe to take advantage of the distraction. Next up Cuba. A much weaker power with almost no leverage. The US showed its quite willing to bomb the shit out of any country and leaders that don't go along with its plans, so you can bet that this one will go alot smoother. Trump has wounds to lick, but they will use this show of force against Iran to scare Cuba into heavy concessions. After Cuba, we'll have a break for the mid-terms but then we have 2 years of Trump uninhibited. He's going to get something from Canada, Greenland or Europe that they don't want to give up, he wants that 51st state and you better believe he's going to find a lever in there to take a big step in that direction. My guess, Canada as they aren't part of the EU. Probably removal of their tariffs.
Pal, I understand. But the US really hasn't made a real military effort to take it over specifically. It's not that I don't think they can, US/GCC will not allow it. Simply cannot allow it. UAE hates Iran and their whole economy is based on oil production so Iran cannot hold the strait, unless there is some magical way to circumvent it. Sorry I don't have Truth Social so I missed that freakout, but in the real world it's not that bad, right now. But I do agree we'll probably send troops or someway get control in 2 weeks.
$2 million toll per ship. 138 ships per day. 365 days per year. $100 billion in tolls per year. Iran's GDP is $350 billion. Their population is 90 million so that's $1100 per person per year paid for by the GCC monarchs. That's almost as much per capita as American taxpayers gift Israel every few months.
I'd guess the itch in Israel ass won't be calm and they're the ones to restart the attack. Step by step it will ratchet up, one bomb here another small bomb there.l causing Iran to retaliate equally on GCC.
Is it? Say hostilities end…and we find out 2 mmbbl/d is offline for at least a year. What else if we find out Iran caps tankers at 80% to the GCC to enforce OPEC goals that they are now in charge of. Or just simply charges their boats $20M instead of everyone else’s $2M? And Israel? Just March back from Lebanon and sit tight, waiting for a buildup of enemies that they finally had gotta ahead of? Speaking of the GCC too, they just want to become vassals of Iran? Because that’s what control of their trade means. Nah, even the peace has lots of global energy peril still ahead of it.
So are they ACTUALLY agreeing to Iran's terms!? That's a massive L for Taco at the geopolitical level if Iran is getting most of what they want. I'm glad it's at least stopped for 2 weeks, but we'd clearly be better off if this never happened. $2M a pop plus no sanctions will allow Iran to sell more oil at a much higher markup and get a $2M on all ships including GCC ships. Dayumn ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
I think the pertinent question is will GCC oil be allowed to transit the Straight? If not, then expedited transit just means that Iraqi and Iranian oil gets out faster.
Well, Iran is a functional country unlike Afghanistan was, and by the time Afghanistan was done the US had spent 8 trillion dollars. This is going to last months at least. This is too tidy. The idea that the US, Israel, the GCC and Iran are just going to shift their focus back to normality seems improbable to be. This is at the very least a several months long conflict. We're merely weeks in.
Saw on some OSINT telegrams that Israel was using 2026 made interceptors pointing towards their stockpiles running low. I’m assuming the same for the other GCC countries as well
Big if true. Because now that means they're terrifying the oil that comes thru, and indirectly tarriffing us. But what's even crazier: almost all of the oil pumped by the GCC goes to Europe, india, China, Japan, se asia. So they're gonna eat the costs the most and had zero hand in all of this lol
# Trump ‘didn’t have good options’ but to take the ceasefire deal, analyst says Trump’s hand was forced to accept a ceasefire deal with Iran because he “does not have any good options” on the table, an Iran foreign policy expert has said. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Trita Parsi, of the Quincy Institute, said a wider US-Israeli war with Iran would “destroy the Trump presidency”. “He was talking a big game about escalatory steps, but everyone in the region knew that if you go after Iran’s energy resources and power plants, the Iranians would retaliate against GCC states and we would have a much, much worse energy crisis than we have now,” Parsi said. “He needed to get out of this. He made his threats earlier today to give the appearance that an agreement he would come to by this evening was done on his terms,” Parsi noted. “But when you actually look at it, it appears that we wasn’t. Even his own statement said that the negotiations will be based on the 10-point plan of the Iranians, which is a much more reasonable plan.” [https://aje.news/9k7fl9?update=4471520](https://aje.news/9k7fl9?update=4471520)
Israel are out of control they dont care about anything and maybe this cost USA the GCC countries trust
A very possible reality here is that the GCC realize that Israel and the US can't protect them, which has been demonstrated here. They are probably looking at normalizing relationships with Iran as they might actually be the better long term partner for stability in the ME as compared to US/IS. Old rivalries can switch rather quickly when money is on the line.
investments into Chinese AI companies don't come with Chinese military defence guarantees. Whole point of the massive US AI investments by the GCC was to diversify into future growth sectors and tie US interests closer to the Gulf. China's not going to come to the Gulf's defence, with what proven navy? Unless Chinese diplomacy can actually get Iran to back down and thaw cross-Gulf relations
Maybe. But a Trump Taco doesn’t bring oil back online. Option 1. Trump attacks and escalates. Likely pushing Iranian oil offline for a long time. May increase GCC oil supplies if Iran doesn’t destroy them. $200/bbl oil Option 2. Status quo of bombing from the air. Potentially long term this whittles down the IRGC and a revolution occurs to oust them from power. But likely many months of Hormuz shut closed and lack of flow $150 bbl/d oil Option 3. Full American retreat, Hormuz stays partially closed for some time, with Iran controlling the world price of oil, and charging tolls on all existing tankers through the straight. Maybe $2M is the going rate for preferential friends, but if a Saudi or Emirati tanker wants to exit, is the price $10M per ship? Who knows. $110/bbl oil for a long long time and a retreat from American global trade protection elsewhere. These are the only options I see, as detente with the IRGC is impossible at this point.
He is not going to do it because Iran will retaliate against GCC energy production. There will be a deal.