GSK

Ok_Blacksmith1684

I like this.. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-wave-life-sciences-nasdaq-wve-stock-bumped-up-to-strong-buy-by-ubs-group-2026-10-17/ UBS Group recently bumped WVE stock up to a Strong-Buy rating. The FDA voiced support for registrational pathway of WVE-006 GSK selected an siRNA program to transition into its pipeline, triggering a $12 million milestone payment to Wave. • Obesity Trial: Wave initiated a Phase 2a combination trial of WVE-007 • Upcoming Events: The company scheduled its Third Quarter 2026 financial results for October 27, 2026, and a Research Day for November 4, 2026. • Leadership Update: Dr. Monika Vnuk was appointed as the new Chief Business Officer.

imustbegthequestion

You guys? Me? Bomber boomer sir, I am a man of science with a metaphysics understanding of reality. Russia is fucked and shutoff be doomed to figure out Siberian Sarcoidosis SuperIntelligence Subvariant on their own. Calls on Siberian Tigers. It's bear hunting strain season and LVMH needs J&J to research more bear traditions testicles and livers for Rutgers pipeline, Carolina based, research. They can't afford GSK anymore. Oh well. At least the Louis Pasteur can still survive on French Republic Lira EuroSubunits. They're still worth more than toilet paper cause they plastic.

fiesew

It wasn’t Pfizer who came up with it but BioNtech from Germany back then owned by a Turkish scientist couple. They had a partnership already before the pandemic. But when the pandemic started they expanded it to use Pfizers resources for the “production and distribution” of the vaccine. Moderna, for a short time, jumped on the same train while GSK failed to make any meaningful gains at all.

coolest35

Another dumbass comment, you realize those guys make vaccines.. which you know.. prevent the diseases in the first place. So no, their core business model just to treat. Ex. GSK makes as much money from vaccines as they do from they drug products. J&J and Pfizer both make cancer treatments (curative).

fiesew

This post is true. Pfizer, GSK, JandJ, etc. aren’t developing their products to cure but mainly to treat symptoms for most diseases. That’s their core business model.

Etherius

I actually work in the “picks and shovels” industry for pharmaceutical research. I don’t know what’s happening in the research labs of Astrazenica and GSK or other big pharma primes… but something BIG is on the horizon Or maybe a LOT of small somethings. But these pharma companies seem to be pouring what amounts to “unlimited money” into bleeding-edge research equipment. Gene sequencing, machine vision, quantum computing, you name it. They’re all in some race and no one seems to know where they’re going

AndrewDaDawg223

I don't think so, CEO said on earnings call that Novo Nordisk is working w MSFT to develop copilot for clinical trial compliance along w BHP, GSK, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and LSEG for application based AI. I think MSFT is rly taking advantage of its client network to develop useful AI

NiceCreamSundaes

Why don't you just hold a bit of GSK? It went up 37% on the previous year, it's quite recession resilient, pays a 3-4% dividend and has a good pipeline. It's probably going to be a decent long term hold. Then if you want to trade go do that with something else.

Weekly-Barracuda-494

What buyout? THIS IS MY UNDERSTANDING OF THE SITUATION. Do your own due diligence, don't believe mine. This was posted on YAHOO.... Spero Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPRO) has entered into a $105 million non-recourse, non-dilutive royalty financing agreement with affiliates of HealthCare Royalty (HCRx), a company majority owned by KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR), providing fresh capital to support its clinical pipeline without issuing new shares. SPRO bought an asset from Innovent for all their royalty stream from GSK until the $105 million is paid back, then after its all paid back they only get 35% of the revenue from the royalties, while the buyer gets 65%. Even if the asset they bought from Innovent is a blockbuster, initially they would barely have enough money to run Phase 2 and 3 trials if the FDA allows the trials AND if they get all the milestone payments from GSK, in addition to paying hundreds of millions(up to $1.1 billion to Innovent based on milestones). The only way they get bought out is if GSK wants to save the $300 million(approximately) in milestone payments, and they like the Innovent asset, but any buyer would be on the hook to pay back the $105 million and 65% of the promised royalties to the other company. Not clean or very profitable now. I am just a bag holder at this point. I am hoping SPRO doesn't go below $1 a share and face delisting in their endeavor to SWITCH horses from antibiotics. If they do go below $1 share price, will they do reverse stock split? I went from thinking this was a guaranteed winner with the money from the Tebipenem Hbr to a 3-5 year limbo period with multiple dilution points possible along the way. I would be happy at this point to just recoup my initial investment somewhere along the line, but its very murky now. To go from a clean win to a pivot and potential chance at a potential win 3-5 years down the road IF they have successful phase 2 and Phase 3 FDA trials is a kick in the teeth to the stockholders by the management of this company. Maybe GSK will surprise me and make an offer, but I wouldn't count on it or bet on it.

Weekly-Barracuda-494

Yes That was disappointing.  I am going to be sitting on quite a few shares until at least completion of a phase 2 the FDA hasn’t approved yet.  On the other hand, only piss poor management with the amount of money coming in from GSK in milestones alone would need to dilute to get through phase 3.  They will also retain 35% of the royalties earned after the loan is paid back.

Weekly-Barracuda-494

Yeah, it is tanking a bit. They re-entered development instead of bowing out with a quick sale to GSK, hopefully the asset pans out, but the time horizon is out years now instead of months for investor payout. The antibody they acquired development rights for may treat multiple conditions in addition to rare disease voucher potential? Lot of speculation on a deal that has just been announced.

Weekly-Barracuda-494

Seems lots of people look for instant gratification in the market and give up their convictions based on their research when things don’t go smoothly up.  I miss some, and I win some, but I research in advance based on potential market size, cash on hand/ cash runway, potential of the science/product to change the status quo, and in penny stocks, market cap and shares outstanding as a measure of dilution and potential return, among other things.  I think right now that Spero valuation IF this becomes a preferred treatment looks like a market cap between $500 million and $3 or 4 billion IF they get bought out.  If GSK doesn’t buy them out, they get milestones initially and royalties, likely putting value at lower end of potential value?  Like I said in my post, I am not in the industry, just a science major that works to understand the science first, and that the financials of the science makes sense.  This product replaces IV antibiotics in a hospital setting with pills to take at home, saving insurers money.   Do your own research/due diligence, I have my shares, and I will be sitting on them until I have more information, and that information should be available in the next six months to a year if no buy out occurs before then. 

Weekly-Barracuda-494

Fair enough, I still hold out hope that GSK will buy them out, although if they wait until they begin marketing and the product is a success, GSK risks paying more than they would today. I don't have any problem holding until mid 2027 and some sales data has been reported, but my averaged pricing is around $2.40 a share.

Weekly-Barracuda-494

I think it has been a little disappointing. Look, I am just an investor with a science degree, I don't claim to know what will happen with this stock, but the market cap last Thursday was 127MM, based on $2.20 share price. It is crazy, but based on initial milestone payments due for sales volumes, It looks like it is undervalued by a factor of 2 1/2 - three times that in sales level bonuses and milestone payments. I am not sure about returns and don't want to do the math to find net present value of future streams, but GSK has around 16% of the company's shares, this from a basic Google search on the initial agreement: The exclusive license agreement between Spero Therapeutics (**SPRO**) and **GSK** for the oral antibiotic tebipenem HBr (commercialized as **Utebzi**) is structured to transition global commercialization rights to GSK while providing Spero with substantial upfront capital, developmental milestones, and ongoing sales revenue. \[[1](https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/utebzi-tebipenem-pivoxil-approved-in-the-us-for-adults-with-complicated-urinary-tract-infections-cutis/), [2](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/09/22/2520704/0/en/gsk-and-spero-therapeutics-announce-exclusive-license-agreement-for-late-stage-antibiotic-asset-tebipenem-hbr.html)\] 1. Upfront Payments & Equity (2022) When the agreement was finalized and closed in late 2022, GSK provided Spero with immediate capital to fund the phase III clinical trial: \[[1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312522248772/d370224d8k.htm), [2](https://www.biospace.com/spero-therapeutics-announces-closing-of-exclusive-license-agreement-with-gsk-for-tebipenem-hbr), [3](https://www.biospace.com/gsk-and-spero-therapeutics-announce-exclusive-license-agreement-for-late-stage-antibiotic-asset-tebipenem-hbr), [4](https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5672810)\] * **Upfront License Fee:** **$66 million** cash paid to Spero for exclusive rights. * **Equity Investment:** **$9 million** direct investment. GSK purchased 7,450,000 shares of Spero common stock at approximately $1.21 per share. \[[1](https://us.gsk.com/en-us/media/press-releases/gsk-and-spero-therapeutics-announce-exclusive-licence-agreement-for-tebipenem-hbr-a-late-stage-antibiotic-that-may-treat-complicated-urinary-tract-infections/), [2](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312522248772/d370224d8k.htm), [3](https://www.biospace.com/spero-therapeutics-announces-closing-of-exclusive-license-agreement-with-gsk-for-tebipenem-hbr)\] 1. Milestone Payment Structure The deal outlines up to **$525 million** in total potential milestone payments across three distinct phases of the drug's lifecycle: \[[1](https://www.biospace.com/spero-therapeutics-announces-closing-of-exclusive-license-agreement-with-gsk-for-tebipenem-hbr), [2](https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5765775)\] |**Phase \[**[1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312522248772/d370224d8k.htm)**,** [2](https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5765775)**,** [3](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312526126244/d107475dex991.htm)**,** [4](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spero-announces-nda-resubmission-tebipenem-130000983.html)**,** [5](https://pharmaphorum.com/news/gsk-will-file-oral-carbapenem-complicated-utis-year)**\]**|**Milestone Description**|**Maximum Payout**| |:-|:-|:-| || |**Development & Regulatory**|Paid out as the Phase 3 trial progressed and regulatory filings were made. Includes a **$25 million** payment triggered by the FDA NDA resubmission.|**$150 million total**| |**First Commercial Sales**|Triggered upon the first commercial sales of the drug in the United States and Europe.|**$150 million total**| |**Annual Sales Milestones**|Tiered cash payments triggered as cumulative global net sales cross specific revenue hurdles.|**$225 million total**| Breakdown of the $225M Sales Milestones: * **$25 million** when net annual sales exceed $200 million * **$25 million** when net annual sales exceed $300 million * **$25 million** when net annual sales exceed $400 million * **$50 million** when net annual sales exceed $500 million * **$50 million** when net annual sales exceed $750 million * **$50 million** when net annual sales exceed $1 billion \[[1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312522248772/d370224d8k.htm)\] 1. Tiered Royalty Percentages Spero is entitled to continuous, tiered royalties on net product sales within GSK’s territories: \[[1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312522248772/d370224d8k.htm), [2](https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5765775)\] * **Rate Scale:** Ranges from **low-single digits to low-double digits** (the highest tier is unlocked if annual net sales exceed $1 billion). * **Adjustments:** Royalties are subject to standard reduction clauses if third-party licenses are required, if a generic version enters the market, or if patent exclusivity expires before the 10th anniversary of the first commercial sale. \[[1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312522248772/d370224d8k.htm)\] 1. Operational Division of Labor * **Spero's Role:** Responsible for the operational execution and initial costs of the follow-up Phase 3 trial (the PIVOT-PO study, which successfully finished early for efficacy). \[[1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312522248772/d370224d8k.htm), [2](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spero-announces-nda-resubmission-tebipenem-130000983.html)\] * **GSK's Role:** Holds exclusive rights to develop and commercialize the drug globally. GSK assumed full responsibility for additional clinical development, regulatory submissions, and all commercial launch and marketing costs. \[[1](https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-and-spero-therapeutics-announce-exclusive-licence-agreement-for-tebipenem-hbr-a-late-stage-antibiotic-that-may-treat-complicated-urinary-tract-infections/)\] * **Excluded Territories:** The agreement covers all global territories *except* Japan and select Asian countries, which are retained by Spero’s long-standing partner, Meiji Seika. \[[1](https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-and-spero-therapeutics-announce-exclusive-licence-agreement-for-tebipenem-hbr-a-late-stage-antibiotic-that-may-treat-complicated-urinary-tract-infections/), [2](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spero-announces-nda-resubmission-tebipenem-130000983.html)\] Not sure, but think Spero has already gotten first $150 million, so $325 million? in milestones remain in addition to royalties paid out on sales, looked like flat rate of 1% to first $750 million then ascending from $750 million to a max low double digit royalty on sales of over $1 billion. I got this off of Stock Titan article, showing parts of 10K Spero's annual report? |**Contingent Event**|**Milestone Payment**| | |:-|:-|:-| || |**Total potential commercial milestones based on first commercial sales**|**$101.0**\*| | |First commercial sale of a product in the United States| \-|$51.0| |Second anniversary of first commercial sale of a product in the United States| \-|$25.0| |First commercial sale of a product in two European countries| \-|$25.0| |**Total potential sales milestone payments**|**$225.0**| | |Net annual sales greater than $200.0| \-|$25.0| |Net annual sales greater than $300.0| \-|$25.0| |Net annual sales greater than $400.0| \-|$25.0| |Net annual sales greater than $500.0| \-|$50.0| |Net annual sales greater than $750.0| \-|$50.0| |Net annual sales greater than $1,000.0| \-|$50.0|   \*Under the terms of the GSK License Agreement, the maximum potential milestone amount was revised from $150.0 million after PIVOT-PO was stopped early for efficacy following completion of a pre-specified interim analysis of data from 1,690 patients enrolled in the trial, thereby reducing the overall cost of the trial to the Company; the maximum potential milestone payment of $150.0 million was contingent upon the trial continuing to full enrollment, with 2,637 patients enrolled in the trial. In addition to the milestones described above, GSK is obligated to pay us royalties on annual net sales of GSK Licensed Products in the GSK Territory. Such royalties are 1% for annual sales up to $750.0 million each year and range from high single-digit percentages on annual net sales above $750.0 million each year to low double-digit percentages on annual net sales above $1,000.0 million each year. Even though Spero is a one trick pony, after discontinuing the rest of their pipeline, I would think a buyout would benefit both parties. GSK may be waiting to see how drug sales are going upon the introduction in late 2026 that they project, but a successful launch would only increse the buyout price. I am not making a recommendation, and I have no expertise in this area. Do your own due diligence if you plan on pursuing this stock.

kerplunktard

They already received the $25m earlier in the year, but its all good, they are due another $300m and this should be very profitable for Spero & GSK so just hang on in there, there will be some profit taking and then the stock will bottom out and start rising again

flowersinmyvase

Yeah, I’d agree. Today’s market reaction made me rethink my hypothesis on $SPRO. At this point, I hope GSK buys it out. They already own 20% and those royalties and milestone payments will add up. $SPRO owns the intellectual property but has zero control over the commercialization of the asset. Don’t know much about SPRO’s Board but small biotechs blow through loads of cash on dumb things all the time. If SPRO’s future relies on those milestone payments, then I don’t see how we go back to $3+. The fda approval was clearly priced in already. I think GSK is in a good position to buy out SPRO. Would be a win win.

Weekly-Barracuda-494

I got this off the online Google AI, "Yes, GSK and its partner Spero Therapeutics received FDA approval for oral tebipenem pivoxil (branded as **Utebzi**). \[[1](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/17/3313706/0/en/utebzi-tebipenem-pivoxil-approved-in-the-us-for-adults-with-complicated-urinary-tract-infections-cutis.html)\] However, it is **not yet ready to sell**. While Utebzi was officially approved for the treatment of complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs) including pyelonephritis, GSK announced that the antibiotic is anticipated to become available to U.S. patients by the **end of 2026**." This may be another reason for the sell off, drug won't be used until GSK gets it into distribution. Unless sale to GSK occurs, I guess I don't expect big movement in SPRO price based on unknown revenues.

flowersinmyvase

Perhaps. I’m not sure I believe this is just because investors stopped reading the label. I’m in at 500 shares and will hold. Curious to see what happens. But my concern is this is a bigger win for GSK than it is for SPRO. With nothing else in the pipeline, isnt SPRO just going to become a milestone holding company?

Weekly-Barracuda-494

If you look at total shares, market price, and milestone/royalty payments from GSK, if the drug is only used for complicated UTI's, the income stream from GSK alone should more than justify a $3-$4 price. The current IV carbepenem drugs require hospital stays, health plans will pay for the oral carbapenem to avoid hospitalizations? Upside still on sales volume and potential GSK buyout, down side only used for narrow infection indications and sales volume never materializes. I am guardedly optimistic, but really confused by the price drop after approval.

housekeyslow

Phase 3 is already banked.  PIVOT-PO hit its endpoint and got stopped early for efficacy. The approval rate on a Class 2 resubmission is a much tighter, higher distribution, especially when the resubmission directly cures the original deficiency. The 2022 CRL wasn't about efficacy or safety. FDA wanted a second adequate, well-controlled trial. PIVOT-PO is literally that trial. So the "if" is real. You're pricing trial risk that's already off the table. GSK owning the NDA and paying the $25M resubmission milestone is them voting with capital, not a press release. Residual risk here is label language and timing, not a binary reject.

The_Cornwallis

Do regards actually research and find companies like Nuvalent, in hopes for a GSK buyout? $NUVL

smirk79

The shape that matters The distribution (the SVG) is trimodal and the eye-opener is that the mass sits left of $3. P(below today's price) ≈ 56%, P(≥$5) collapses to ~9% (versus ~48% in my ungrounded first pass), and the ~15% chance of a 50%+ loss is unchanged and ugly — that's the CRL branch, where rescue-financing dilution compounds the loss. The bull's $5–7 target lands in the ~5–9% right tail, not the base case. So what would I actually believe? Three things, in tension: The drug will very likely get approved. The bull is right about that, and right that the GSK structure is elegant (no salesforce to build). The stock is roughly fairly priced at $3, because the market has correctly absorbed both the high approval odds and the limited-use label that caps the commercial story. This isn't a mispriced lottery ticket; it's an efficiently-priced one. The real edge, if any exists, is entirely a bet on label breadth — the single variable that swings fair value from ~$2.69 (narrow) to ~$4.54 (broad). If you have a differentiated view that the final label will be broader than the FDA's "limited use" signaling suggests, that's the thesis. The milestone-counting and reverse-merger narrative is noise by comparison. The honest read is that the Reddit author did real homework but made the classic error: counting gross milestone caps and assuming a commercial-scale label, when the regulatory paper trail points to a de-risked approval of a deliberately narrow drug. Those two facts roughly cancel to "fair value."

YourChildhood5762

The press release from the company announcing the drug as having passed Phase 3 clinical review was published on Oct 21st last year. You are very late to the show. Today another announcement was made. `GSK is paying $66 million upfront to license rights to Spero Therapeutics novel antibiotic tebipenem Hbr, unswayed by the FDA's decision earlier this year not to approve the drug for adults with complicated urinary tract infections (cUTI).` `Spero will now have funding to start a new phase 3 trial of the drug – tebipenem pivoxil hydrobromide, to give it its full name – and according to GSK this will be designed based on feedback from the FDA. The Massachusetts-based biotech sought approval of tebipenem on the strength of a phase 3 trial – called ADAPT-PO – which showed that the drug was equivalent to standard care with intravenous ertapenem in patients with cUTI and acute pyelonephritis (AP).` `There were signs that Spero was expecting a negative outcome from the FDA when it halted all efforts to develop a commercial platform for the antibiotic, shed 75% of its workforce, and said it was pivoting its attention to two other pipeline drugs.` [https://pharmaphorum.com/news/undeterred-by-fda-setback-gsk-snaps-up-spero-antibiotic](https://pharmaphorum.com/news/undeterred-by-fda-setback-gsk-snaps-up-spero-antibiotic)

crisco000

I don’t think you could be any more incorrect if you tried. It 100% IS happening. Just in the past week’s companies announced more than $3.6 billion in new projects ranging from automotive assembly lines and steel processing centers to dairy production plants and electric bicycle factories. There is continued momentum in domestic manufacturing as companies seek to strengthen supply chains, expand production capacity and move operations closer to customers. Toyotas $2 billion expansion at its manufacturing complex in San Antonio creating 2,000 jobs. Japans MISUMI Group announced the launch of their $1 billion global investment initiative for manufacturing and supply chain organization in North America. Walmart just celebrated the opening of its $350 million third company-owned milk processing facility in Robstown, TX which also supports the company’s broader commitment to invest $350 billion in products made, grown, or assembled in the US by 2031. XPEL just announced approximately $110 million in manufacturing and supply chain investments of four building campus totaling 435,000 square feet that will serve as the company’s North American Manufacturing and operations hub. Italian based CEP USA just opened its first US manufacturing facility in North Little Rock, AR. LEV Manufacturing just announced plans to establish its first Tennessee operation in Algood, TN which will be a 100,000 square foot assembly, logistics and distribution facility. Hyundai Motor Group - $26 billion in US investment including a new Louisiana steel mill supporting domestic vehicle production. John Deere- $20 billion of US investment including onshoring excavator productions Stallantis- billions in US manufacturing investments and plant upgrades as part of reshoring efforts. GE Aerospace- investing $1billion in US factories and suppliers across 16 states. Hiring roughly 5,000 US workers. Eli Lilly- $27 billion for four new US manufacturing sites. More than 13,000 US jobs expected. Specifically reshoring API. Novartis- $23 billion investment to build/expand 10 US manufacturing facilities. GSK- $30 billion investment on US based manufacturing and research. Amkor Technology- $7 billion advanced packaging facilities creating 3,000 jobs…… I could go on and on. There’s been roughly 1.7 TRILLION of announced US industrial investment since 2025 across 140 companies and 35 states. Just as offshoring took time so will reshoring/onshoring, but it is happening no matter what you or that uneducated fool says.

birdflustocks

I agree with your sentiment, see my analysis here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech\_bntx\_market\_capitalization\_is\_near\_cash/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech_bntx_market_capitalization_is_near_cash/) I don't understand the transition from pancreatic cancer to lung cancer in your post. Regarding the BMS deal they will receive $2 billion unconditionally before 2029 in addition to $1.5 billion already paid. That's a total upfront payment of $3.5 billion. While there are more milestone payments, we can also calculate with $2 billion cash plus at least $3.5 billion for the remaining 50% share. That would justify a $25.5 billion market capitalization. If you add $20 billion cash and $10 billion R&D expenses in the last 5 years, you get a $30 billion market capitalization. I feel less is absurd, that would indicate they are wasting money while the results look good so far. There is also the completed CureVac acquisition and the included license agreement with GSK for vaccines. That's in addition to the license agreement with Pfizer for vaccines. Ultimately we will see seasonal and pandemic influenza mRNA vaccines. And other diseases are in the vaccine pipeline like HIV and Malaria.

birdflustocks

I agree with your sentiment, see my analysis here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech\_bntx\_market\_capitalization\_is\_near\_cash/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech_bntx_market_capitalization_is_near_cash/) I don't understand the transition from pancreatic cancer to lung cancer in your post. Regarding the BMS deal they will receive $2 billion unconditionally before 2029 in addition to $1.5 billion already paid. That's a total upfront payment of $3.5 billion. While there are more milestone payments, we can also calculate with $2 billion cash plus at least $3.5 billion for the remaining 50% share. That would justify a $25.5 billion market capitalization. If you add $20 billion cash and $10 billion R&D expenses in the last 5 years, you get a $30 billion market capitalization. I feel less is absurd, that would indicate they are wasting money while the results look good so far. There is also the completed CureVac acquisition and the included license agreement with GSK for vaccines. That's in addition to license agreement with Pfizer for vaccines. Ultimately we will see seasonal and pandemic influenza mRNA vaccines. And other diseases are in the vaccine pipeline like HIV and Malaria.

FlimsyPriority751

I literally voted for kamala Harris and thought Trump being elected was going to ruin America. After he was elected I read his policies and executive orders and started seeing through the bullshit spin that gets put on almost everything he does.  GSK, Astra Zeneca, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Amgen and others have all announced massive pharma investments in the USA. Most of which will be concentrated in the North East where my sales territory is located.  Oh and don't forget about the billions of dollars being invested by semiconductor companies into the USA. Also, my wife is German with a PhD and I have a good understanding of German culture. I can literally feel the arrogance in how you're writing.  Speaking of Germany, companies are leaving en masse as manufacturing costs from energy and labor have gotten away too high for companies to stay competitive. Just look next door at Poland that is growing like crazy while Germany's economy is stagnant. Bosch is moving jobs and manufacturing out, Volkswagen is struggling and reducing manufacturing jobs, and there are many other stories like this throughout the country. Too much bureaucracy, govt regulation, and cost of doing business. 

StockyJ122

I think this is a fair take, especially on Brexafemme and the history here, but I’m looking at the story a bit differently at this point. I’m not really building the thesis around Brexafemme anymore, and I think the market isn’t either. That asset clearly didn’t live up to the original expectations, especially on the IV/systemic side, and the commercial opportunity there looks limited given existing options like fluconazole. What I’m focused on is SCY-247, which I see as a reset rather than a continuation of the old story. On the IV point, I agree that the original compound had limitations, but SCY-247 is a next-generation fungerp that is specifically being developed with both oral and IV formulations, which is why the current Phase 1 IV study matters. So I don’t see the “it can’t be used intravenously” issue as applying to the current pipeline in the same way. On the TAM argument, I don’t view antifungals as a massive market like oncology, but I do think drug-resistant infections, especially Candida auris and invasive candidiasis, are areas where effective new treatments can still command meaningful value, even if the patient population is smaller. In biotech, you don’t always need a huge market to justify a few hundred million in valuation if the need is real and competition is limited. I also think the GSK deal matters here, because large pharma companies tend to be selective in this space, and their involvement suggests there is still perceived value in the platform, even if the first product didn’t fully deliver.

sytena10

GSK autism drug approved by FDA RIP WSB

pootenanner

MT, RELX, GSK, VOD, UL. Have printed me cash Jan and Feb

pootenanner

For the 1,000th time. ENB, MT, VOD, GSK, UL. And chill.

pootenanner

UL, RELX, MT, GSK, ENB. These are international companies which are apparently all the rage right now.

FewBelt7288

Anyone thinking else thinking $SNAP long dated calls with the share buyback news? Seems to have worked well for $GSK

I-STATE-FACTS

PFE - Zoloft LLY - Prozac GSK - Paxil ABBV - Range of generic drugs in the same space

wolvendael

So this is gaslighting 101 by a VKTX baggie. No stock has a bigger cult following than VKTX. How many times have you heard of ALT? My guess is few and far between - hence it doesn’t pass the smell test that it has a cult following. ALT does have a few followers who objectively look at very good science and differentiating factors that continue to be ignored by WS and bashed by competitors. The truth about pemvidutide: it’s a 1:1 glucagon to GLP agonist, which skews it less towards max weight loss (-15% in its straight obesity trial) and better suited for MASH. It had its phase 2 results (which weee excellent) published in The Lancet, has late-breaker podium presentation at the largest hepatology conference in Nov, receive BTD from the FDA for phase 3, has a new commercially-focused CEO, and is now likely in talks with a partner. Yet it barely sits above cash value. That is what ALT investors are focused on - the mispricing or deliberate suppression of the share price. The competitive landscape favors pemvidutide: it has the classic MASH and fibrosis response of other drugs in its class, but it has BIC tolerability. This is what matters most in MASH: staying on the drug. Hepatologists and GIs have repeatedly said that they are not chasing weight loss. It’s nice to have, but GLP1s that have 10-20% diacontinuations (like survodutide) are not going to be prescribed. Patients have a serious liver disease and have to remain on the drug. Pemvi has <1% tolerability, mainly due to its EuPort construction, which slows absorption and decrease max concentration. This is a large differentiating factor for pemvi. After that, its results with prescriber-preferred noninvasive tests (VCTE, ELF, PDFF) were so good and statistically significant that the global head of MASH for Lilly called them “beautiful” at AASLD conference in Nov. and now FDA is moving away from biopsy and allowing NITs for pivotal trials - right at the perfect time for ALT’s p3 design. ALT bulls aren’t trying to convening you that pemvidutide will be the number 1 drug of all time, or that it will replace all other MASH drugs. It’s simply that pemvidutide does seem poised to capture a lot of the market, has been derisked due to FDA BTD (conferring a historical 80% prob of success from a Jefferies analysis), and that every other drug entering p3 in MASH with good data and BTD has been bought for $3bn to $5bn. It’s a hot field. There are many legacy players with no presence - including GSK, AZ, PFE, and many others looking to get into the MASH field. ALT longs would simply like to see the company rerate to fair value. It’s certainly long overdue.

littlecomet111

AstraZeneca, HSBC, HSBC, Shell, Linde, Arm, BAT, Rio Tinto, Rolls Royce, GSK. The fact that they’re not always in the headlines is partly why they are so successful. They just do their thing in the background making billions of pounds in boring ways.

NeuroJak

I would switch j&j to GSK ... They are a set up for sure https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7672515/#jld200099t1

MaybeTheDoctor

Illy GSK and Novo are valuable because of the insane profits they make, mostly on the US market. If by some miracle there would be a healthcare reform in direction of a single payer system that could drive prices down their valuation would crash hard.

b88b15

This post has no pay off. What do you mean by hard assets and value plays? Even in pharma, lly is more valuable than GSK .

just-one-jay

I’ve been successfully doing this and have made a ton of money this year, I got stuck in a monster PFE position betting the admin would back off vaccines, that or a health crisis would occur thanks to brain worms and the money would pile in. I’m still long on PFE, and my medical vaccine investing really paid off with MRNA and GSK. At least PFE pays a sweet divvy

just-one-jay

I’m not throwing shade, I’m just saying my investing theory. Morally/academically I think the guy is a grade a loser; that’s however not part of my prospectus here. I see great value in PFE, GSK, MRNA and CRSP. And I don’t mean anything below to be political beyond its functional importance to my investing strategy. Who were the loudest people against the COVID vax? Republicans Who were the first people to get concierge COVID vaxs rushed out to them under Donald? Republicans Don’t watch what they say to rile up the base, watch what they do with their money when push comes to shove. When the chips are down and RFK causes a treatable disease to rip through the population people will be lined up for treatment.. That or in 3 years (or possibly next year) the Dems will neuter him and we’ll be back to letting big pharma run things

XZeroDelta

Scynexis is another example. For you regards, it has an FDA drug to treat resistant vaginal fungus. GSK is going to commercialize their drug between 12 to 18 months and Scynexis is gonna get a butt load of cash to buy tendies. It is a very risky stock and is trading bellow it's intrinsic value of $1.15 per share. With biotech things make less sense. Sometimes you just have to buy and forget if you believe in the management and the pipeline. Having big man balls also helps!

Pointsmonster

I’m holding a little over 3k shares at $0.63 that I held for the last couple weeks while it traded sideways. Not massive gains, but nice to get a few hundred dollars when the rest of the market is diving. So far I’m still holding because I legit think $1 is in-range for this one. What’s kind of funny to me is that people here often complain that no one posts stocks *before* they run, while in this case a few of us did (and I’d argue still are since I believe there’s room left to grow). Volume has steadily picked up and today was 5x the norm. Their GSK settlement and the likelihood of 2026 Brexafemme sales restarting are grounds for resetting the SP

Ok-Conversation6225

Second this! There is a great DD post in this sub from a month ago. This is slowly starting to climb. Very confident everything will go smooth with GSK on board.

ElmoLovesGrover

Not dramatic like LPTX... biotech SPRO is up 14% for the week. They have earnings and a business update Tomorrow after the close. Their partner GSK is due to file the NDA for their antibiotic any day now. Upon filing SPRO receives a $25 million milestone payment. 25 mill is about 20% of SPRO market cap and will almost double their cash on hand.

Pointsmonster

SCYX is interesting and is not one that’s already made a run. There’s no near-term catalyst but also no near-term existential risk, and from what I can tell they’re trading for less than they’re worth in cash today. They already had 12-18 months of burn and that’s now >2 years with their GSK settlement, not including revenue they generate next year when GSK restarts Brexafemme sales. ~$25M market cap vs what I believe is ~$70M in cash and short-term assets and ~$14M in liabilities on a biotech that has funding through the next phase of their pipeline and has already successfully commercialized a therapy in their current asset class. Short interest isn’t that high but volume is so low that it’s like 3 days to cover. Maybe I’m missing something but this seems way under-valued and primed to leg up

ElmoLovesGrover

 Heck yeah baby! GSK already owns 16% of them and buying them out saves GSK from paying SPRO milestone payments and royalties. GSK would probably wait until after FDA approval just because that is the most risk-averse thing to do and big pharma is notoriously risk-averse. I've seen a post-approval buyout range of from $14 to $21 per share! To me the upper range of that seems improbable, but I'd take anything in the bottom of the range fer sure.

Ok-Conversation6225

Do you think GSK could buy them out? They’ve been pretty quiet and they know how much money tebipenem will be in demand. Im definitely in it for the long haul. Im confident they will see FDA approval next year and if I remember correctly they are on the fast track for approval? I’m in healthcare and the first oral carbapenem is a game changer! It’s already being used in other countries and they stopped the trial early because the drug was just as good as IV! It will save everyone sooo much money, which is bottom line.

ElmoLovesGrover

SPRO is good longer term and also good for a quick pump. Announcement that GSK has filed the NDA could give a big pump, and then once the NDA is accepted by FDA another pump, and finally upon FDA approval a third pump. SPRO has very low cash burn (since tebipenem is their only drug they have they have no research and development costs) so once sales start coming from that they are rolling in cash, baby! Heck, they get a $25 million milestone payment when GSK files the NDA and a $101 million milestone payment once the first unit is sold!

ElmoLovesGrover

Yes, the Guggeheim buy recommendation. You know, baby, that $25 mill from GSK is just one part of what they are getting from their GSK deal. They also have a deal with GSK for their anti-fungal BREXAFEMME (ibrexafungerp) which has both royalites and milestone payments associated with it. After the $25 mill payment SYCX is trading for less than their cash value (market cap is less than cash on hand) and their enterprise value is negative. These things are screaming "undervalued"!

Rpking92

I read this. They're getting $25 million from GSK and has a PT of $3 [1](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/SCYNEXIS+Secures+%2424.8+Million+Payment+from+GSK+and+Advances+SCY-247+Development+Plans+Amid+Phase+3+Study+Termination) [2](https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/guggenheim-reaffirms-their-buy-rating-on-scynexis-scyx-blurbs)

Cy-man

25M mc and received a 25M from GSK

NoDisk5699

For defensive stocks I have Pharma: Astrazenica and GSK and Utilities: SSE and National Grid. UK based GSK and SSE have been like growth stocks anyway so win win

stickman07738

I understand you comment but I walk into Costco or Walmart and I buy the generic acetaminophen. It is the same reason GSK spun-off Haleon (HLN) and you could look at its performance.

Gl5778

Please be aware I do have a potential conflict of interest here because I own over 1,000 shares of NWBO. You need to know how to read research papers, how to verify sources, and most importantly any tiny thing that you can use to tear them apart. While also being able to think like an investor. The burden of proof is on those who publish and not the reader. All it takes is a 👍 or 👎 from a group of regulator’s. One you make an assload of a gains the other near certain catastrophic loss in the stock you have. These are not MRK, GSK, J&J, and LLY that can /will soak up billion dollar losses on a drug and still have 40 others in the pipeline Will maintaining profitability. Small biotechs are very vulnerable to data manipulation, fraud, and regulatory scrutiny. I mean you need approval for profit. (Or a buyout) You have Assholes who will defraud people at all costs. Then the FDA is notorious for picking on the little guy. They don’t have the big legal teams. Only invest in if you trust the data and the conclusions that other professionals completely unrelated to the study have come to. Per google there are issues with NWBO’s study. “the company made fundamental changes to the trial design, used questionable statistical methods, and demonstrated a profound lack of transparency” The changes and statistical methodology is fine if it can be verified and replicated in other trials. The lack of transparency is a huge problem with the company. It is the big thing that makes me nervous. Anyway just my thoughts on NWBOz

ElmoLovesGrover

Agree, low risk on this one and 10x not happening. Low risk penny stock biotechs are uncommon indeed and SPRO stands out for that alone. Potential for maybe 8x is there though. In a buyout GSK could offer high teens meaning as much as 8-fold from current prices. I'm in 2,500 of the shares, $3,500 in Jan. 2026 calls to play a pump from NDA submission and $5,000 in April 2026 calls to play a pump from announcement from FDA of NDA receipt and start of review.

thalassamikra

Be boomer pharma - down when market's up, down when market's down Anyone long GSK explain price action today?

oquido

nothing much really, they will just reiterate GSK's plan for NDA submission in Q4, and report financial stability and that's about it.

EmpathyFabrication

Had to look up the distributions for YM Tesla fund. Avg about $50 a month on an $850 investment in a fund that I have zero confidence in the managers to maintain the share price. Meanwhile buywrite TSLA $44k investment to collect $3k premium right now on the ATM 30DTE 442.5 call. I'll argue that all these stocks you mentioned (and all the stocks YM offers) are not really that good for doing a buywrite strategy. Maybe msft and goog if you want to own the stock. Compare YM distributions to premiums on boring stocks that have pretty low "risk of cratering." SCHD $2700 investment collect $15-50 premium on the ATM 30DTE 27 call. KO $7000 investment collect about $115 premium on the ATM 30DTE 71 call. Look at something with an awful spread like GSK. Way OTM 30 delta I can collect $70 for the 30DTE 46.5 call and I would invest $4500. Plus you collect a dividend on all these stocks and skip writing the call that month. You don't even have to do anything. Decent chance of capital appreciation on all these stocks.

Ok_Cry7572

Pfizer: $2.3 billion criminal fine (2009). GSK: $3 billion criminal fine (2012). Johnson & Johnson: $2.2 billion criminal fine (2013). These aren't conspiracy theories. They are settled U.S. Department of Justice cases. The Victims: And who pays the price? The mothers of vaccine-injured children. Their pain is the human cost of this corruption. They are ignored, silenced, and called "anti-science" for demanding answers.

whoppermaltmilkballs

AVLNF is a sub $100M Canadian mining company with huge lithium and high risk REE reserves that's not getting a lot of hype yet. I will continue monitoring it. SCYX is my deep value play in the biotech space. They have more cash on hand than their market cap, and has actual FDA approved drugs in a high need area. Just going through temporary commercialization difficulties with GSK. As always - NFA.

britash1229

The CEO of CytoDyn left his former company, Quest Diagnostics, which he founded, to lead CytoDyn because of his strong belief in the potential of its drug. Max Latalaid also made a notable move, leaving GSK/VIIV to become Vice President of CytoDyn, and on the very same day, was appointed Vice President at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation—suggesting a deeper connection and possible involvement from Bill Gates in the company. Dr. Richard Pastell, one of the world’s leading oncologists and a top expert in cell therapy, has also joined CytoDyn, further validating its scientific credibility. During a recent shareholder letter and investor conference, the company announced that an ultra-high-net-worth individual has committed to fully funding the EIND (Expanded Access) study, as well as two glioblastoma studies and an Alzheimer’s study. So far, eight individuals worldwide have been cured of HIV through bone marrow transplants involving a CCR5 mutation—some of whom were also cured of cancer. CytoDyn’s drug is a CCR5 inhibitor, offering a non-transplant-based alternative with similar potential. Since the CCR5 receptor plays a key role in inflammation and disease progression, this drug could represent the future of medicine. Anyone getting involved now is in a fortunate position. ⸻ Let me know if you’d like i

Straight_Increase293

Eli Lilly, Verizon, KO, Shell, Walmart, Sony, GSK, Kymberly-Clark, Mercedes Benz

Tradingland

$SGMT going to triple, $PROK can double or more $SPOR can do double to quadruple on GSK buyout

Tradingland

SPOR Up 5%. GSK buyout coming?

Tradingland

$SPRO perking up. Dormant since p3 result. $GSK buyout coming?

Impressive_Review

Why are you calling names when someone consolidates information which may be helpful to those worrying about their prescription prices as many including myself are? To recap, 90% of the prescription drugs used in the US are generics which are exempt. As of 10/02/2025 the updated branded drugs exempt due to investment agreements are AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Gilead Sciences, GSK, Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Sanofi, and Pfizer. Pfizer has also agreed to lower some current drug prices for Medicaid patients with a ‘most favored nation’ agreement. Hopefully more manufacturers which we import branded drugs from will get on board with that, exempt from tariffs or not. We are paying far more than other countries for the same drugs.

Impressive_Review

I’m sorry to hear your sister is going through that. One of my monthly meds has doubled in the past year and my insurer doesn’t cover it. It’s a generic made by several, most recently an Indian mfr. Obviously my increase had nothing to do with tariffs and I lay blame on Pharmacy Benefits Mgrs, in my case Optum. As far as branded drugs now AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Gilead Sciences, GSK, Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Sanofi are now exempt

CreLoxSwag

Calls on GSK. WHY? Because one redditor farts so much I can smell it from here.

EmpathyFabrication

GSK up 10%+ on new CEO

oquido

I agree it's undervalued and hope the price increases. It could skyrocket with interest from big pharma, but the challenge is that it's currently only approved for uUTI, which is rarely a complicated disease. With GSK recent approval in the same field for their new antibiotics for uUTI, it will be an uphill battle to compete alone.

DoctorKoolAid1981

Anything to do with pulmonary diseases, let alone bio-tech, is never a certain thing. However, the open source information does show potential for this medication, to be beneficial. Not every drug has a 100% affect on any illness or disease being targeted. Viagra, Cialis, Rogain, are just a few examples. Among the reports and research from the first and second studies, it does help with the inflammation from pulmonary sarcoidosis. There is always room for improvement in medicine. That is why it is "medical pratice," and not absolute. Also, look back on the development of Brio-Elipta. The stocks for GSK showed volatility around it's development.

InternationalCow7269

Appreciate the clarity. If GSK is eyeing submission by year end and we’re looking at a Q3 2026 PDUFA, that gives some room, but it also means a lot of the move could get front-loaded if market starts pricing that in ahead of formal acceptance. Still, curious: do you see the market re-rating on submission alone? And at what price? Or are we banking on whispers of M&A to fuel the upside earlier? Seems like we’re all playing the “anticipation premium” game here. but how early does that show up do you think?

oquido

I was suggesting that, in comparison to other clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies, the SP movement may not be the most dynamic until future catalysts. According to GSK's Q2 earnings, an NDA submission is anticipated before the end of the year. If the submission is accepted without any issues, the PDUFA date is expected to be set in Q3 of 2026.

InternationalCow7269

Not the most thrilling? 7x move in 4–6 months isn’t thrilling? Lol. if that’s boring, I need more boring plays from you. But seriously, that $14–$21 range bakes in a lot of best-case and assumes the market front-runs GSK or a buyer.What gives you confidence the market will price that in pre-approval? Also PASTEUR’s still just a ‘maybe,’ not a milestone... even though there is bipartisan support, its been in legislative pipeline for a few years now. How would this really impact SPRO? Can you share what timeline you are looking for NDA submission and FDA Approval? Very interesting. Appreciate the insights

oquido

The valuation range of $14-$21 does not account for potential dilution risks and is predicated on assumptions regarding a near-term buyout, either before or after FDA approval. Regarding stewardship and payer considerations, GSK will be responsible for negotiations; however, I am highly optimistic about the advantages of tebi over current IV administration, particularly its potential to contribute to reduced overall hospitalization costs. I've not mentioned but pending Pasteur Act may also have some positive impact once passed. I appreciate your comment! While it may not be the most thrilling opportunity in the biotech field, it's worthwhile shortlisting it.

InternationalCow7269

Well written. definitely some good signals here. GSK licensing de-risks a lot, no doubt. But curious how you’re thinking about real commercial traction? approval does not necessarily mean adoption, especially with stewardship programs and payer bottlenecks in play. Are those $14 to $21 targets factored in dilution risk or just assuming a clean run to M&A... either way, appreciate the breakdown. watching closely.

Internal_Field5970

GSK and YPF Bullish for policy reasons 

Internal_Field5970

Bullish: IBM, GSK, YPF, TLRY, PSKY, HTZ, anything with drones, AMPX Hold: SoFI AAPL Google GLD GDXJ uranium quantum  Might sell: some fake overvalued companies that have AI in their description 

joeg26reddit

The market is irrational GSK literally just cured ass cancer and the stock went down (look it up)

Dramatic-Morning-100

I mostly look for swing trades. Strictly chartwise, YPF would be okay if it drops below 24 again, but it's on a long-term decline, so be careful. GSK is better for long-term and has some good volatility.

Internal_Field5970

Any chart wizards who can shed light on some growth for YPF or GSK

Internal_Field5970

I bought some GSK because of Wellcovorin, the new ivermectin for autism And I can see that people who use this emoji  🤌  Will be the reason this stock goes up 

Internal_Field5970

Big on PSKY and SOFI Anything with the word Quantum or Uranium YPF for Argentina stuff GSK for Wellcovoroin (ivermectin for autism) TLRY for the 420 vibes, also for weed reclassification  Drones cause of war (RCAT/ONDS) GDXJ seems to be my stable golden child What I’m not big on are fake companies like Costco who provide no real services like data centers or generative AI sex robots 

Internal_Field5970

What do you think of GSK, wellcovorin company aka the Ivermectin of Austism Or YPF, Argentinian ADR that might benefit most from US stimulus 

bigmeatbag

I'm very interested in the option for GSK before Donnie's autism announcement since they decided to hype and approve their Leucovorin drug for folinic acid vitamin B9 deficiency which is nothing but a precursor that gets broken down into L-Methylfolate instead of just telling people to take readily available L-Methylfolate supplements that can be found in any store that sells any supplements. I've been taking it for a while to help with ADHD so I was shocked to see what the announcement was. Don't get a script or give GSK cash for the same damn thing you can buy anywhere over the counter for cheap. Donnie and his boys just hyping their GSK calls.

SignificantStuff5446

I thought the stocks associated with Leucovorin may do better as insurance will cover the drug once the new use is added to the label. They're also inexpensive as TEVA is trading at a 6.8 FPE, while GSK is at an 8.41 FPE.

Necessary_Fly_9266

GSK

NewtonMaxwellPlanck

It's a form of vitamin B9/folate. Generics available. I read that $GSK is marketing their own version of it called Wellcorvin. https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-to-submit-label-update-for-wellcovorin-leucovorin-at-us-fda-s-request/

bigmeatbag

So buy GSK calls for their leucovorin the new autist candy that the FDA approved today?

Internal_Field5970

GSK

SignificantStuff5446

I bought TEVA though GSK also went up AH. Anyone remember what happened with REGN stock? TEVA makes it today via tablet and injectable. GSK is re-labeling it.

Internal_Field5970

I purchased 5 shares of GSK because Wellcovorin is going to cure autism 

Internal_Field5970

GSK Shrek dildo thx to autism 

Internal_Field5970

You’re thinking of GSK

oquido

https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/s/wxkug4oSCX I've added a DD as well, great opportunity. GSK also announced $30B investment in the US for next 5 years.

OyyBrent

Ok here’s the AI response to these ridiculous price targets just to be objective here : Here are the main issues: ⸻ 🔹 1. “No dilution risk until 2028” is unrealistic • The DD claims Spero has cash until 2028 and won’t dilute. That’s not accurate. • Their last 10-Q showed a limited cash runway, extended by GSK milestones — but not enough to fully eliminate dilution risk. • Small biotechs almost always raise more capital before commercialization, even with a partner, especially when relying on royalties (which are low %). • Expect additional equity raises in the 1–2 years post-FDA approval. ⸻ 🔹 2. Overstating royalty economics • The DD suggests royalties could hit $190M/year if sales beat $2.7B. That’s misleading: • The royalty tiers are low (low single digits to low double digits). • For SPRO to see $190M/year, Tebi would have to sustain multi-billion sales at the high royalty tier — which is highly unlikely for an antibiotic. • Realistically, royalties would probably be in the $30–60M/year range at peak. • That makes the “FDA approval = $7–9 stock” assumption too aggressive. ⸻ 🔹 3. Overinflated buyout thesis • GSK holding ~16% is not a guarantee of a buyout. • Large pharma frequently partners without acquiring — especially in antibiotics, a space known for poor commercial returns (Melinta, Achaogen, Paratek all struggled). • Antibiotics have been historically weak M&A targets, even with strong trial data. ⸻ 🔹 4. Ignoring FDA label risk • FDA approvals for antibiotics often come with narrow indications, which can cut revenue potential. • The DD assumes a broad label for cUTI, but the FDA could restrict usage to ESBL-E or resistant pathogens only, reducing uptake. ⸻ 🔹 5. Valuation math problems • Market cap is ~$110M now. • The DD’s price targets ($7–9 approval, $14–21 buyout) imply >10x upside, but that ignores: • Near-term dilution • Modest royalty flows • Narrow label risk • Competition (new IV/oral agents are in the works, plus generics will pressure pricing) • A more grounded post-approval valuation might be $3–5/share near-term, drifting lower as dilution sets in unless sales surprise to the upside. ⸻ 🔹 6. Misleading claim about “no clinical risk” • The trial was stopped early for efficacy — great news, but it doesn’t make approval guaranteed. • FDA previously issued a CRL for Tebi (2022). They’ll scrutinize the new dataset carefully. • Manufacturing and resistance-pattern questions could still trip them up. ⸻ ✅ Bottom Line The DD oversells SPRO as “safe” and massively undervalued. What’s wrong with it is mainly: • Overstating GSK’s commitment → implies buyout is inevitable. • Overstating royalty value → ignores real-world antibiotic pricing. • Understating dilution risk → cash needs are not solved through 2028. • Assuming broad FDA approval → label could be narrow. • Unrealistic price targets → ignores past antibiotic failures. SPRO does have a real catalyst and backing, but future share price is more likely to see a pop into the $3–5 range around FDA approval than the $7–21 that DD projects, unless something very unexpected happens. ⸻

BryanDaBlaznAzn

My dad works at GSK, might have to give it a shot

oquido

[https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-and-spero-therapeutics-announce-exclusive-licence-agreement-for-tebipenem-hbr-a-late-stage-antibiotic-that-may-treat-complicated-urinary-tract-infections/](https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-and-spero-therapeutics-announce-exclusive-licence-agreement-for-tebipenem-hbr-a-late-stage-antibiotic-that-may-treat-complicated-urinary-tract-infections/) GSK's PR on the licensing/partnership deal with SPRO Furthermore, GSK has recently received a FDA approval for uUTI antibiotics last year, and getting cUTI will complete their UTI portfolio.

gghhossttzzerro

Paul Schimmel, co-founder of aTyr Pharma, is a serial biotech builder. From co‑founding Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Alkermes, Repligen, Sirtrist, Cubist, Momenta, Abide, to aTyr itself - all have made it to NASDAQ with strong valuations or exits. Current share prices: Alnylam : $465.89 Alkermes : $27.02 Repligen : $115.00 Momenta : Acquired by Johnson & Johnson for $6.5b Sirtrist: Acquired by GSK at $22.50 per share Cubist: Acquired by Merck at $102 per share Abide: Acquired by Lundbeck for $400m