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$DAC - Analysis and DD - A 2023 Deep Value Play
2023-03-10 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Is Global Ship Lease ($GSL) a steal at these prices? A free business + %30 return per year in most pessimistic case?
Favourite Strategies for Adjusting a Debit Call Spread
Globus Maritime - Is There Any Hope Left?
Amazon is Building The Greatest Moat Through Logistics
$AMZN - Amazon is Building The Greatest Moat Through Its Logistics Network
GENI: Genius Sports Reports Strong First Quarter 2021 Results, Raises Full-Year 2021 Revenue Guidance By 35%
DYMD - GENIUS SPORTS - Merger Meeting Scheduled for April 16th
Mentions
GSL leaps look really great! I've bought 200 calls expiring March 2026, at $38.00. We're already at $31, and if we hit $38, your initial investment goes up by 1000%. Due to the current upward trend, option pricing models are underestimating the volatility badly. Due to the valuation of the stock (>$50 based on several fundamental valuation models), the upside volatility is much higher than the downside volatility.
https://youtu.be/idx3GSL2KWs?si=b9DL-WJHG5JGaYCg
I just recently bought a bunch of GSL. ESEA is also intriguing. I watched the webinar with those two and MPCC. It was really interesting.
I’m buying both UPS and GSL. The shipping is just shifting. China is shipping to other countries than the US, and other countries are shipping to the US. In fact, GSL reported that the tariffs are actually creating more demand for their smaller container ships and increasing their profit. It’s a good time to buy and hold.
The problem is that you will have to convert US dollars to buy, plus pay a foreign fee to buy, and maybe pay foreign taxes. Then pay fees and deal with exchange rate fees again when you want to cash it back out into USD. There are ways to invest in foreign stocks without these issues, for instance GSL stock is a Greek/UK company you can buy on the NYSE. Or buy a fund like SCHF that only holds foreign stocks and deals with all the taxes and currency issues for you. If your income is generated in USD, including social security, you’re still going to be dealing with the value of the dollar when you exchange it into a different currency. And the fees to do it.
Listened to my first recorded one yesterday by GSL. I was curious if I would hear that tariffs are actually lucrative for small and medium container ship leasing, thinking goods would just be rerouted to different markets, and they didn’t let me down. It was really interesting in a shipping business nerd way.
For dividend stocks, I like UPS, GSL, EPD, C, JPM, WMT
I have GSL calls for my Monday hit
Inverting wsb in RKLB, i have puts. Calls on instacart, GSL calls. Inverting me for ensured profit
For shipping companies, P/B is not very useful as the value of ships fluctuates heavily according to supply/demand. What you want to look at is P/NAV. GSL operates like a royalty company for the shipping business. It doesn't need many employees as all the legwork is contracted out: they own access to the container ships. This is also why their margins are so high compared to sector averages.
|Ticker|Sector|Allocation| |:-|:-|:-| |ACGL|Financial|22.75%| |UVE|Financial|15.75%| |SGOV|Short-term Bonds|15.75%| |MGM|Discretionary|10.00%| |GSL|Industrial|10.00%| |QFIN|Financial|7.25%| |IAU|Gold|6.50%| |MO|Staple|5.75%| |Cash|Cash|4.75%| |HPP|Real Estate|1.50%|
|| || |Ticker|Name|Sector|Allocation| |ACGL|Arch Capital Group|Financial|22.75%| |UVE|Universal Insurance Holdings|Financial|15.75%| |SGOV|0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF|Short-term bonds|15.75%| |MGM|MGM Resorts International|Discretionary|10.00%| |GSL|Global Ship Lease|Industrial|10.00%| |QFIN|Qifu Technology Inc|Financial|7.25%| |IAU|iShares Gold Trust|Gold|6.50%| |MO|Altria Group|Staple|5.75%| |Cash|Cash|Cash|4.75%| |HPP|Hudson Pacific Properties|Real Estate|1.50%|
|| || |Ticker|Name|Sector|Allocation| |ACGL|Arch Capital Group|Financial|22.75%| |UVE|Universal Insurance Holdings|Financial|15.75%| |SGOV|0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF|Short-term bonds|15.75%| |MGM|MGM Resorts International|Discretionary|10.00%| |GSL|Global Ship Lease|Industrial|10.00%| |QFIN|Qifu Technology Inc|Financial|7.25%| |IAU|iShares Gold Trust|Gold|6.50%| |MO|Altria Group|Staple|5.75%| |Cash|Cash|Cash|4.75%| |HPP|Hudson Pacific Properties|Real Estate|1.50%|
|| || |ACGL|Arch Capital Group|Financial|22.75%| |UVE|Universal Insurance Holdings|Financial|15.75%| |SGOV|0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF|Short-term bonds|15.75%| |MGM|MGM Resorts International|Discretionary|10.00%| |GSL|Global Ship Lease|Industrial|10.00%| |QFIN|Qifu Technology Inc|Financial|7.25%| |IAU|iShares Gold Trust|Gold|6.50%| |MO|Altria Group|Staple|5.75%| |Cash|Cash|Cash|4.75%| |HPP|Hudson Pacific Properties|Real Estate|1.50%|
|| || |ACGL|Arch Capital Group|Financial|22.75%| |UVE|Universal Insurance Holdings|Financial|15.75%| |SGOV|0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF|Short-term bonds|15.75%| |MGM|MGM Resorts International|Discretionary|10.00%| |GSL|Global Ship Lease|Industrial|10.00%| |QFIN|Qifu Technology Inc|Financial|7.25%| |IAU|iShares Gold Trust|Gold|6.50%| |MO|Altria Group|Staple|5.75%| |Cash|Cash|Cash|4.75%| |HPP|Hudson Pacific Properties|Real Estate|1.50%|
|| || |ACGL|Arch Capital Group|Financial|22.75%| |UVE|Universal Insurance Holdings|Financial|15.75%| |SGOV|0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF|Short-term bonds|15.75%| |MGM|MGM Resorts International|Discretionary|10.00%| |GSL|Global Ship Lease|Industrial|10.00%| |QFIN|Qifu Technology Inc|Financial|7.25%| |IAU|iShares Gold Trust|Gold|6.50%| |MO|Altria Group|Staple|5.75%| |Cash|Cash|Cash|4.75%| |HPP|Hudson Pacific Properties|Real Estate|1.50%|
Just sold on Tuesday, but made 60% return this year with GSL. We like(d) the stock
GSL DAC are both good choices
Say no to options; "Trading" is a crap shoot so you have to be as careful as you can. I've picked up some hints from CNBC - put a little money in CART, DELL, and VRT from suggestions in their panel show; not tremendous gains, but you're not going to lose your shirt - but NOT Cramer. I read a lot of stuff from TipRanks and Yahoo Finance most of which I disregard, but every once in a while, something will crop up like CELH and GSL that were good bets, esp. CELH which I nearly wrote off, but took it because it was expanding outside its gym sales and I thought it had room to run and it overdid my estimate. Look for things that show real possibilities for growth and make sense. Good luck.
I used to have foreign stocks (ADR) (RIO, GSL Philips N.V) in both IRA and Brokerage and noticed that is a fee charged in IRA but not in brokerage.
>Currently holding calls on GSL and **BBAI** I'm in danger.
If you want to make money with stocks just watch what I do and do the exact opposite! Currently holding calls on GSL and BBAI... Will they print? Nahhh
Definitely not GSL 🤦♂️
I bought CRGY and GSL calls. now the question is... How regarded am I actually...?
Not playing GSL but interested if gives gauge for other shipping stocks and shipping news.
Loaded up GSL 22.5C 3/15 a bit dumb with the whole Houthis and the Red Sea situation but who knows might hit 
GSL 20c SE 51p Didn't get in the last one
I bought some pretty inexpensive calls on GSL AND CRGY,
calls on 4 companies this coming week CIFR ABEV CRGY and GSL. Now is your time to call me a regard.
SE put, AVDL call, GSL call
calls on SEMR and GSL next week, no reason, literally flipped a coin for both
GSL's intrinsic value is potentially 83% above share price - YF
You are right, but be careful here. If J is pushing something in public, it usually means that he is playing with options and needs to push his narrative. He did the same with DAC and GSL. I think he lost millions because the stock price wasn't moving, so he wrote public articles about the best opportunity he saw in his whole career. He also tweeted about it a lot to pump the stocks. That said he's definitely one of the sharpest minds in the shipping investment scene.
More of a GSL/SBLK guy myself... not holding either at the moment.
I love profitable, fast-growing companies with a high return on capital. A few favorites going into 2024: STNE TGLS GSL URI HRMY LRN ULTA
I fucking hate OP Zerg. Like 5 years straight of ZvZ GSL finals.
AmD fucked me on my calls last time, but shorting it worked but I am still down almost 5k on that stock. F is a long time stock of mine that I have a DCA of 11.15 give or take a few cents. Idk GSL, what they about?
AMD and chasing the F dividend. GSL too
This was a mix of biotech stocks and some random follow the hype stocks. When I first started trading I bought into bpmx which is now after many reverse splits $TMBR and also bought into $AUPH. Bought in $GSL cause some random thread somewhere said go buy $GSL. Also reverse split like the olympics before I closed out. Was trading a lot of 3xETFs like $JNUG and $JDST. Some other randos I lost on: $HEB $DCTH $STAF $CLRB $DARE My final 8k loss was on a ARKF call
What do people think about shipping stocks like ZIM, DAC, GSL?
Value or growth perspective. Which would y'all pick, or both? Danaos Corporation (DAC) or Global Ship Lease (GSL)?
If that's all the rest of you are doing... then I'm not entirely sure why you were ever hired in the first place. Don't you even end up with novel combinations of cut and paste stuff? Because from what I've tried of ChatGPT it really struggled if you wanted, e.g. modern OpenGL with GSL and htslib. It would keep insisting on doing things the immediate mode way... so it wasn't worth even bothering to see if it even compiled, never mind ran properly, lol. And even when it isn't particularly novel... don't you still need to make sure that it works, not just passes test cases as tests can often not be guaranteed to have complete coverage. So this requires a complete understanding of the code. I won't speak for everyone, but I usually understand the logic behind code more quickly and easily if I came up with it and wrote it than when figuring out someone else's. I guess it may have many of the same challenges as outsourced code. Not insurmountable, but more trouble than it's worth in my opinion.
My strategy is basically selling covered short strangles on mostly high yield dividend stocks. I then just continually reinvest the cash flow into whatever I own that’s getting the most beaten up at the time. I largely steer clear of tech which is how I luckily got through 2022 unscathed. Tickers I own at the moment are ET, BX, PNC, AGNC, KEY, GSL and SOFI.
JD, QFIN, CVS looks better than it has in a long time. HOPE is beaten down and looks solid. GSL for shipping. AEL was just purchased for $55 a share and it’s under 53. I’m in the green on all of these by a lot.
The other commenter got my point exactly, GSL's profits from all their leases this cycle won't even be enough to pay down debt, realistically they aren't going to ramp up on divs/buybacks more than they are already. They have $600 million net debt on a $700 million market cap, which is pretty substantial. DAC, for all the shit they get, already has a far larger buyback plan than GSL (40m vs 100m authorization, 33m vs 40m spent). The next few months will be critical since DAC has just become net debt-free, so they literally have to figure out a new use for their earnings. They do seem to be ramping up on buybacks, having bought another $20 million not included in the $40 million above based on their latest share count. But we're in agreement that DAC blowing all their earnings on expansion would be the main bear case, and it's definitely possible.
True, but the assumptions is that DAC will return capital/value to shareholders. I dont see DAC doing that. I see them kingdom building. See their ZIM/EGLE engagement. GSL clearly communicated what they are doing. NET debt isnt that huge anymore.
That Greek part is so true. But because of GSL’s fairly large debt they don’t trade at such a discount to NAV. They have to allocate more to debt repayment and aren’t as capable of the catalysts mentioned in the OP. This is WSB after all.
GSL is the superior play. DAC management. 🙄 >Don't trust a sailor with your rum. > >Don't trust a greek shipping company with your monies.
Consider GSL. Would look into STNG
I don’t think DAC is under valued given it has higher PE than GSL and ZIM.
[https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/sexahar3](https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/sexahar3) this is the Q3 earnings call for GSL (a competitor of Danaos). I would recommend going through it as management offers insights into the new position of charter companies following COVID. Many executives do say that the increase in demand for container shipping during COVID without many excess costs means that the firms have just gone through a cash bonanza and the risk of GSL's customers not being able to pay contract premiums is virtually zero.
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/sexahar3 this is the Q3 earnings call for GSL (a competitor of Danaos). I would recommend going through it as management offers insights into the new position of charter companies following COVID. Many executives do say that the increase in demand for container shipping during COVID without many excess costs means that the firms have just gone through a cash bonanza and the risk of GSL's customers not being able to pay contract premiums is virtually zero.
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/sexahar3 this is the Q3 earnings call for GSL (a competitor of Danaos). I would recommend going through it as management offers insights into the new position of charter companies following COVID. Many executives do say that the increase in demand for container shipping during COVID without many excess costs means that the firms have just gone through a cash bonanza and the risk of GSL's customers not being able to pay contract premiums is virtually zero.
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/sexahar3 this is the Q3 earnings call for GSL (a competitor of Danaos). I would recommend going through it as management offers insights into the new position of charter companies following COVID. Many executives do say that the increase in demand for container shipping during COVID without many excess costs means that the firms have just gone through a cash bonanza and the risk of GSL's customers not being able to pay contract premiums is virtually zero.
I've owned GSL in the past. Like it and great divvy.
You have to catch shipping cyclical stocks at the right time to get a good return on the value of capital gains. That requires a lot of research & economic forecasting that most people don't want to spend time on. The stocks with high quality ratings that pay good dividends (like GSL) are great investments most of the time except if you buy in just before a big cyclical downturn. So even with the best shipping stocks, you have to pay attention to the market cycle. I would recommend going into shipping stocks if you want to get good dividends and want to learn about market cycles. However, most growth oriented investors prefer capital gains to dividend/royalty income and most growth oriented investors don't have the patience for market cycle investing.
This particular dividend is way higher than last quarter, but it's for real. I have ZIM, SBLK, GSL and DSX. They are all great payers, but don't get overly invested in them. I have just under 15k between the four of them. That's all I'm willing to lose if things go bad.
Many ocean shippers including ZIM, Diana Shipping (DSX), Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK), Genco Shipping (GNK) and also related industries like Global Ship Leasing (GSL) have been punished due to projections that a recession will cause a decrease in shipment volume. Ocean shipments are bid on an auction model, so excess capacity would cause shipping rates to drop until shippers reduce their fleet to match demand. In reality though, most shippers anticipated this and have exceeded estimates during the most recent earnings cycle. These companies pay out the majority of their earnings through dividends, which may cause their potential to be ignored by average stock traders when the stock price remains flat. In ZIM's case, their dividend is currently more than 25% of the share price (though it changes each quarter unlike US firms that tend to keep a consistent dividend payout).
# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [KR](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#KR) 04/21 47P for $1.05 or less * [BITF](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BITF) 04/21 1P for $0.25 or less * [LIN](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LIN) 04/21 345P for $8.45 or less * [GSL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GSL) 04/21 17.5P for $0.90 or less * [TNP](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#TNP) 04/21 20P for $0.40 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [EFA](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EFA) 04/21 70C for $1.55 or less * [T](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#T) 04/21 19C for $0.20 or less * [GM](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#GM) 04/21 38C for $1.80 or less * [NCLH](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#NCLH) 04/21 15C for $0.70 or less * [SBUX](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SBUX) 04/21 105C for $1.65 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 77%. (Stats as of 2023-02-28)
Not my investing style. Once I close a position, I am eager to open another one. i.e. Sold NRT at 15.00 yesterday (I know it jumped today) and bought GSL at 18.40 today and put in a GTC order at 19.50.
Yes, Hasbro/WotC is in trouble over this. Firstly the OGL 1.0a has only been around for 23 years. "Retroactive" grabs would only go back that far. And yes that is legally dubious, trending toward "that's not how it works chief." Magic the Gathering is the bulk of WotC revenue, not Dungeons and Dragons. Always has been. And the there have already been problems with MtG customers over card set releases (both too many, too fast, and too many delays), "bad" releases, and general gumbling quality. But this is a digression. Dungeons and Dragons as a division made a very large purchase of the 3rd party Virtual Table Top and digital Book platform "Beyond D&D". Sinking $146 Million. Plus additional money into development of their own Virtual Table Top, to compete with 3rd party generics Roll20, Foundry, and Fantasy Grounds. This is critically important to understanding what is happening internally. What WotCs planned growth sector for D&D was. The clear plan was to build a vertical monopoly around DIGITAL D&D. Expanding into Video Game like microtransactions, and "Metaverse" monetization. To accomplish this WotC felt the need kneecap and kill the competition, by depriving them of D&D on their platforms. So the OGL rewrite was an attempt to claw back sole control. On extremally shaky legal grounds. Being unable to do so would lead to a repeat of very recent history. This has happened before. In 2008 to 2013 (these dates are important). With 4th Edition Dungeons and Dragons. WotC attempted to make a hyper Player Focused edition, with physical form microtransactions (player option expansion non-random "card" packs). Under a new license agreement called the Game System License (GSL). Which required signatories to give up using OGL if they signed on the GSL. This was NOT restorative. WotC did not (could not) force people change licenses. They only had the carrot of 4e D&D. The GSL was about as draconian as the the leaked OGL 1.1. The D&D community split over 4e. Which resulted in Paizo and the Pathfinder RPG (under OGL 1.0a). Along with several other 3rd patients walking away from the GSL. WotC flounder with 4e for 5 years, mostly floating on brand name strength alone. And finally had to give up both 4e D&D (which is not a bad board game and rules system, it just ain't D&D) and the GSL. 5th Edition D&D was published under the OGL 1.0a again, as a sign that the customers and 3rd parties could trust them again. Which is what makes the current play for OGL 1.1/2.0 particularly stupid. In order to NOT have a repeat of 4e D&D creating competing variants, some CEO directed that the OGL 1.0a be killed (it can't). So they could safely lock down another hyper Player Focused 6e D&D (One D&D) behind a digital walled garden, with an exclusive 1st party Virtual Table-top. But WotC doesn't have the legal ground to kill OGL 1.0a, nor force automatic acceptance of OGL 1.1/2.0. We repeat history, with maybe a pointless court battle. There will be a 5e DnD (avoiding Trademarked IP) clone. Just like Paizo did with Pathfinder/3.5e. Only now it's worse. Because those larger 3rd party publishers (who were taking in a fraction of WotC 1st party revenue) are going to do so much more to entice customers out of the WotC subscription system they just paid millions for (remember $146MM for D&D Beyond). And Hasbro doesn't have the institutional C-Suite experience to understand how badly they've fucked up. Hasbro CEO C. Cocks came over from Microsoft in 2016, AFTER 4e D&D and the GSL debacle was 3 years gone. He has only known "good times" of 5e D&D. WotC CEO C. Williams was brought on in February 2022 (another Microsoft/Xbox & Amazon transplant), and is seemingly an egotistical moron (going by actions). And all of this try and unnaturally squeeze blood, and cut out fractional competition. When if they'd just left 1.0a alone, and built their 1st Party VTT like the Unity or Epic Asset Store, they would have been fine. With a new GSL that looked like a Unity or Unreal engine license. And likely would have had steady growth, because Dungeon Masters are lazy and will follow the path of easiest to use content.... Until you piss them off. Then they walk away FOREVER, and take 4 to 5 other (higher value) customers with them. Lastly, Knights of the Old Republic.(KotoR) IS NOT UNDER OGL. The guy from Roll for Combat who said this was wrong, he admits he was wrong, and was corrected by Ryan Dancey (head of WotC at the time) who was head of WotC at the time, during an interview. To the best of my knowledge there is NO video game that operates under the OGL. Those with D&D branding are on their own licenses. Lucas Arts (and thus now Disney) has a sperate perpetual license to the variant d20 IP (fear and skill names etc.) and "rules" system used in KotoR. Using OGL 1.0a for a video game is extremely difficult. The terms of 1.0a require human readable and indefinable decelerations of "Open Gaming Content" and "Product Identity". Human readable Just-In-Time (JIT) compiled languages like JavaScript can MAYBE get away with it, if they don't obfuscate the code and comments. Pre-compiled Byte Code, not a chance. Code comments get stripped, and even decompiled human readable code will lose understandable Class, Method, and Variable names.
Tanker gang still around? Bought some GSL for a long term hold. Guess these ships are going to be in high demand... can't make em anymore because of diesel engines... the electric ones cost a pile more.
Now imagine Kennecot, but it took all the water from GSL, utah lake and strawberry reservoir, and then everything left over is toxic and unusable and you have cobalt mining
Not all industries are able to fit the "always growing" model. Real estate (REITs), energy, mining, shipping industries all have companies that are high free cash flow with a high dividend. Also, look up preferred stocks. They are like bonds issued by companies but they trade on stock exchanges. Many of those have a coupon value of > 8% dividends at their issue value (generally $25 per share). GSL's B series preferred shares pays 875% dividends and it's a highly rated company.
Thanks! $X trading at a 1.13 PE seems absurb, but tough to know if they will make any money at all next year if steel prices continue to fall. Can't go wrong with push up bras and guns tho. I like GSL for a value play. Shipping had been getting crushed, but they have long term contracts that guarantee earnings greater than their market cap over the next 2-3 years and pay a 9% dividend
>It doesn't matter to them that they can sit in B class preferred shares of a top rated shipping company like GSL for a guaranteed 8.75% dividend You call the above poster out for having a very myopic timeframe, but you call GSL's dividend "guaranteed", neglecting the fact that prior to 2021 the last time the company paid dividends was 2015, and before that in 2009. Shipping is seeing unprecedented profitability these last two years, but these times are absolutely not expected to last, which is why shipping stocks are so cheap from a dividend yield/PE standpoint.
> 24k/yr on 400k is 6% annual return needed. It’s not impossible, but it’s extremely unlikely without taking substantial risks on a loss of capital. This is false. The most deeply undervalued sectors right now -- energy & financials -- pay the highest dividends because all the millennial & GenZ bubble investors clinging to their still-inflated tech/growth stocks dreaming of massive bounces find dividend stocks boring ("boomer stocks"). Many of these stocks are paying more than 6% interest. This is the easiest time ever to make massive $$ in no-brainer plays. Let me try to explain this with metaphors: The bubble investors who grew up in an era of the Fed put, and ever-expanding money supply, truly believes stocks always go up and they believe that if they park their money in tech/growth stocks like Apple, that more money will always await them at the end. The passive index investor bubble has very similar psychology. To those investors, these stocks and their index ETFs are the entire universe of investing that matters. Everything else is just noise or options plays to make money in and get out. They may dip into other kinds of stocks from time to time, but only to get out take gains when they can and put those gains back into more AAPL, MSFT or SPY. It doesn't matter to them that they can sit in B class preferred shares of a top rated shipping company like GSL for a guaranteed 8.75% dividend, or be invested in PXD, a strong US energy company for greater than 10% dividends. So when you write your comments about how > 6% income/gains are unlikely, what I see is someone who is inside the SPY & tech/growth/mega cap bubble and can't see past it.
You're right about DAC, but GSL has a lot of liabilities. Realistically yes the price should be higher for dac but it looks like the margins are collapsing and the earnings show that. GSL is resilient but has a lot of liabilities, and fair value based on assets is $20 for GSL but $120 for DAC. Fair value wise however? Still similar.
DAC fair value based on assets and existing contracts is somewhere around $120, and GSL is $40ish. Accounting for shipping companies is a bit different from most industries.
Oh shit you’re right. I apologize for that. I just compared them based on occupation. GSL and DAC are consistent but ZIM is just leverage. Their dividends stand nothing compared to ZIMs. Cash is the main asset for ZIM, and they can utilize it to get in the dry bulk shipping course. The only problem is that the short term debt is unsustainable, and that of course they can get rid of it immediately, but that would leave them with high long term debt ratios and lower stock prices with no earnings potential. It’s a very very very risky play, and stocks like DAC and GSL do not have short term debt issue. Both of those stocks are expected to decline in earnings, but not by a long shot, and if consumer confidence increases, we will see all the stocks that you and I mentioned go up by a large amount. I did get confused with those stocks though, fuck
>Even though they have $12b assets $8b liabilities, they seen extremely undervalued compared to other shipping stocks like SBLK and DSX. Star Bulk and Diana are dry bulk shipping. It's a completely different industry and can't be compared to containerships at all. What you should be doing is comparing ZIM to peers like DAC or GSL. What you'd find, if you did so, is that Zim operates asset-light, engaging in long term charters of other companies' ships, and operating on the spot market to profit on the difference. Obviously, the last two years were phenomenal for spot, and Zim made truck loads of cash. As spot rates come down, and the company enters into new, higher rate charters, profits close. Currently, there's nothing to imply a significant long term upside in spot rates that would lead Zim to huge margins. GSL and DAC, on the other hand, operate in the same market, but are the ones owning the ships, and have fixed rate, multi year charters for most of their ships. That means stable, secure cash flow, regardless of market conditions. In a wild market like 2020-2021, they lose some of the upside, but you can lock them in for profit over the next few years, even if the market crashes. Both companies, for instance, could let their ships be used to the end of their charters, immediately scrap them, close up shop, and be worth roughly 2x their current share value. ZIM, on the other hand, will face compressed margins for the foreseeable future, and does not have significant assets beyond cash. If they enter a negative earnings period (highly possible), they'll burn cash. So basically, by buying Zim, you're betting on a surge in spot rates that nothing currently points to existing, in exchange for giving up guaranteed cash flow and value in more stable companies. Not saying that Zim is uninvestable, just pointing out the trade off. But ultimately, please don't compare them to dry bulk or tankerships.
Salt Lake City. The GSL crisis is somewhat overblown and will likely be addressed because it’s an easy fix that just no one has the balls to do yet. Mormon influence is fading quickly, and almost nonexistent in the eastern part of the city. Plus they make good neighbors. In terms of the outdoors, it actually is what people think living in Denver is. Denver is getting stuck in traffic on your way to mountains. SLC is actually a small city at the base of a great range with awesome canyons. The only good people live in the parts of town that are now prohibitively expensive like Sugar House and Park City, so that’s a challenge, but it beats the struggle of living somewhere as overcrowded and played out as Denver. Boise and Albuquerque are up there too for the same reasons.
GSL has only paid 6 quarters worth of dividends since 2015. Are they going to continuously pay dividends? I’ll take a look at the others too, thank you. Another question for you regarding commodities and oil too. I can see the prices rising throughout the upcoming year or two with the recession, Russo-Ukrainian war, supply chain problems etc. But do you think it’s a good entry point now, or if you weren’t already in commodities, would you wait to buy?
A lot of them pay a dividend For shipping I like $GSL, 10% dividend, ongoing buyback, contracts booked for years, 2 P/E. $DAC has very similar numbers For steel I like Cleveland cliffs. P/E of 2. Turn around story. Largest auto manufacturer steel supplier. Vertically integrated and pushing into green steel. No dividend but ongoing 1b buyback I know the least about oil but Exxom has a yield of 4% and buying back 10b of stock a year, OXY is the buffet favorite. Josh young on Twitter has some OTC explorers who could turn massive profits if oil stays elevated
GSL is a safe and easy bet buddy, buybacks are just a superior version of dividends, gonna be hard to find a stock that is all buyback no dividend that is retarded, but companies make decisions based on share holders not semantics with an idiot on WSB, keep on buying unprofitable Ponzi schemes
You said dividend not buy back so you already changed your story. Buy backs are authorized but not mandated. They disappear all the time. You should know that. GSL has a 650m market cap with 2x debt. Are you shitting me? 1 person pumped that trash on twitter a few days ago based on future leasing contracts but didn't mention they can be canceled without penaly. They lease a few ships and will go under if the contracts get canceled. This is not a dividend play its a re-re yolo into a super micro cap loaded to the tits with debt in a raising interest rate environment. Good luck with this trash.
GSL has an 8% yield and a 10% buyback. I look forward to roasting your retarded explanations as you somehow think you are the master of all sectors
I'm loading up on containership stocks, because they're so cheap. GSL is in a really good place, I like DAC and CMRE also.
$GSL This is in a magical spot where it pays a good, sustainable dividend *and* is primed for growth. And they are making buybacks. And they have a great balance sheet. (Really cleaned it up this year and locked low rates on their loans.) And the have locked in earnings for years to come.
GSL makes more money when shipping is backed up
Is GSL getting a short squeeze?
Nothing, that would be to fight the Fed. Instead I am looking for more bear market rallies to buy som more SQQQ. Or more vix calls. The stocks I keep an eye on the most is GSL, Google and CRM. Also looking for a good entry on CRSP - but I want it under 50 at least.
Check out Global Ship Lease $GSL too.
$GSL Global Ship Lease. * Sustainable dividend, currently at 8.5% annual yield * Active buybacks * Good debt management * Locked in cash flow via long term customer contacts * Highly undervalued
Listen up, idiot (calling you what you call yourself). Don't hold a "maybe, years from now" value stock. Their are so many undervalued opportunities available right now. Try plugging $GSL, $VET, or $ET into your spreadsheets and seeing what their fair values are.
Looks like GSL is the only thing working for me today so far. VERU fucked my ass yesterday, still holding tho