Reddit Posts
One of the reasons why there is a housing shortage or will be in the USA.
With inflation running, interest rates hike, covid lockdowns, a war & possible recession where would you invest?
Eviction hold expires 8/31. profit or delusional?
Eviction hold expires 8/31. profit or delusional?
Mentions
I don't think your arguments are great, and I don't own either stock...yet. The bill probably will pass. Sounds very nice to most people. It'll pass before the midterms. The stocks of AMH and INVH will dump further. Republicans will run on the bill hoping to get some populist support. This will be the best time to buy these stocks. The bill, which will be stayed by the courts, will ultimately be struck down. It represents an obvious violation of basic property rights are far exceeds the government's power to regulate commerce. The bill will in no way adversely impact either stock after the midterms.
There’s plenty left to buy. Look at RYN, INVH, MLP, HHH, UMH, VICI. All real asset based stocks at troughs. If Abel goes in on land the whole world will realize they’ve been buying every commodity but the one they’re standing on.
I like land oriented stocks long term - HHH, MLP, RYN, and even INVH. In general I want to own real estate stocks if I think they make a large profit if they sell everything, and pay their debt off Some commercial real estate is over leveraged and w potential lack of buyers.
You don't understand the math. Cap rate = net operating income / property value. So you can derive property value, because INVH discloses both cap rate and net operating income. Occupancy comes in because vacant properties are not producing any net operating income. So you use this figure to adjust the net operating income component.
Those $30 calls for INVH could be interesting if we see sustained momentum, but I'd proceed with caution given the recent volatility in the real estate sector. The support at $28 needs to hold for this to have legs. You might want to reality-check with some real-time data: https://aimytrade.io/ticker/INVH?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=comment&utm_campaign=smallstreetbets.
Went up over 400 percent on my QXO call options which I plugged here. My next pick is INVH if anyone wants to ride.
There are a lot of REITs where this is the case. AMH and INVH come to mind. The market value of their assets are ~30% more than their EV. Real estate just isn't a popular investment right now, people would rather own AI.
1. The $200 Billion "Mortgage Bazooka" Trump announced he is directing the federal government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. The Logic: By flooding the market with $200B in buying power for these bonds, the goal is to force mortgage rates down immediately. The $OPEN Connection: Opendoor's biggest enemy is high interest rates. Lower rates mean more people can afford to buy the houses Opendoor is currently holding, which speeds up their "flip" cycle and lowers their borrowing costs. 2. The "Institutional Ban" Twist In a classic "populist" move, Trump also proposed a ban on large institutional investors buying single-family homes. Wait, isn't that bad for $OPEN? You’d think so, but CEO Kaz Nejatian has been sprinting to the cameras to clarify: "We aren't institutional investors, we are a marketplace. We don't hold homes long-term; we help families buy them." * The Result: While institutional landlords like Blackstone ($BX) and Invitation Homes ($INVH) got crushed today (down 5-8%), $OPEN is being viewed as the "last man standing" that helps individuals buy homes. If the "Big Bad Wall Street Landlords" are banned, $OPEN becomes the primary way for people to move houses quickly. That's from Gemini
INVH forecasted AFFO is 1.69 for 2026. So it's trading at under 16 P/AFFO. Compared to O trading at forecasted P/AFFO of 13. So not a huge difference.
From a market lens, this reads more like “cap future buying, not force sales.” The marginal impact is on single-family rental operators and related REITs (e.g., AMH, INVH, Tricon), where premium multiples could compress and funding-driven growth gets harder. While institutional ownership is \~1–3% nationally, in tight-inventory, high‑concentration metros, fewer marginal buyers can still shift volumes and price dynamics. For homebuilding and home improvement, near‑term demand/pricing could soften; medium‑term outcomes for builders (DHI, LEN, NVR) hinge on mortgage rates and credit conditions if owner‑occupier demand improves. Execution risk is high (the President can’t legislate alone), so prices tend to react first, with the path depending on Congressional action and definitional carve‑outs (what counts as “institutional” and “large”).
I grabbed GRAB, and some INVH since I didn't have any real estate related stocks.
I am in agreement that rent prices are going down. Its very clear across most markets in the US. I also agree with your mafia play. I am not believing that Trump is going to push a typical left policy for very long. I think this is actually designed to go after Section 8 housing. Just wait for the truth social post: "these corporate real estate investors are raking in millions of dollars paid by the government for affordable housing, when the housing is far from affordable. We are getting rid of Section 8 subsidies immediately." This will still hurt INVH, but I think this is where this administration is actually going with this.
Problem is will those assets be revalued. I don't think the market agrees that they are worth what INVH thinks they are.
INVH builds homes to rent out, not to sell. They are not part of ITB for that reason.
INVH will finally get gaped. Karma to have its way.
There are stocks trading at rather cheap levels right now, because the entire market is trading based on momentum and hype right now. People are selling off boring stocks to harvest tax losses and piling into AI stocks. There is opportunity in buying boring stocks. CMCSA- 6-7x forward earnings, compared to 15x historically. While they face some stagnation due to competition in the broadband space, that's still potential 15% returns just for keeping earnings steady. PYPL, GIS, KHC, CAG, VZ are all in a roughly 10-12x forward PE range. Then you got REITs like AMH/INVH trading at 20-30% below the value of the homes they own minus their debts.
RBLX, a Minecraft clone that developed into a platform where kids can spend their parents credit cards on shitty games in the 3D version of Newgrounds: $80B market cap INVH, which has in inventory of over 80,000 actual houses that you can live in, in the real world: $20B market cap
RBLX, a Minecraft clone that developed into a platform where kids can spend their parents credit cards on shitty games in the 3D version of Newgrounds: $80B market cap INVH, which has in inventory of over 80,000 actual houses that you can live in, in the real world: $20B market cap
could invest in INVH as they use more of that QE-influenced financing to buy up all the new housing if prices start to drop.
Everything down except the publicly traded rental home firms. You know, the ones who bought up houses in 2008 for sole purpose of renting them out. INVH & AMH. I think that's telling fir recession and I want to finally buy puts today
INVH & ANH are responsible for much of the single family home fuckery in the US.
u/TheBarnacle63 : why do you think DLT, INVH , PLD, AXP, BX and BLK are sells ? I’d rate them holds at the worst max personally, I’ve been watching them for entry points.
As others have said, REITs are a very broad category. Are you looking for one that tends to move more in line with housing prices? Something like INVH or AMH?
What the fuck is a house? Do you mean $INVH?
So INVH just giving its tenants free meals?
I am thinking Nov 25th $90 put. The market is irrational and it may go up again this week for some weird reason. Last week, I was lurking $ENPH and I was glad I didnt buy put. It’s freaking way overvalued like ABNB but it ran up. INVH earnings was bad but stock went up. Finally INVH gave guidance and it tanked. I dont trust 1-2 weeks out put, I am doing Nov 25th. Catalyst? ABNB lower its guidance, fed hawkish (jay fulcker), higher interest rate, russia announce nuke after G20. It wont happen in a day or two, it will happen in more than weeks. Any thoughts?
Thanks for the info! https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INVH Looks like they're having quite the rough year.
I loaded up on INVH puts midday yesterday and it's been going up ever since. I actually managed to lose money on puts today.
Pretty sure it's going to be INVH or AMH. INVH doesn't have a lot of cash, their debt is exposed to variable interest rates, and they are exposed to both a stock market crash and a real estate market crash.
Started buying early July, down 10% and I think we keep dropping until Nov. Still holding my longs because I'm probably/usually wrong. Loaded up on INVH puts after this last hike and it's green so far today and yesterday... classic. Imagine losing money on puts today...
AMH, INVH, and OPEN - but OPEN is already dead.
CoStar Group Inc. (NASD:CSGP) and Invitation Homes Inc. (NYSE:INVH) will replace PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) and PENN Entertainment Inc. (NASD: PENN) respectively in the S&P 500. Ouch penn. Remember that
How about puts on VNQ or INVH?
I don't know enough about INVH to say one way or another. Would have to do more research if I were to make a play.
What do you think of $35 put INVH Oct 2023 at $3.00? Check that out. I am against company that I look up to. Lol. Do you check financials? INVH revenue around $1.8B-$2B. Market cap around $24B, overvalued Cash around $280m Debt whooping $7.7B No doubt this will be a great investment for more than 7 years. However, I am doing short term trade less than 2 years.
Big ups to the guy who said puts on INVH yesturday. Had to pick up calls
Picking up puts on INVH. ​ High PE, low yield, 75,000 homes with a $17B value in a period where the Fed is raising rates. Institutions are going to sell into strength, so predicting that today is as good as it is going to get for 2022.
Which is better for short/puts Mets INVH MCHI Thanks
Back at the end of April I bought puts on OPEN and INVH (both own 10's of thousands of SFR's and have been buying like crazy over the last 12 months). My OPEN puts expire in Feb '23 and INVH Oct '23. OPEN has been meh...I think I was late to the game on that one. INVH is printing so far.
Short or puts on INVH, AMH, and maybe LAND. The first two are REITs that only own single family homes.
Puts on INVH because people put their rent money in Celcius 💀🪦 Oh by the way, did you know Celcius had a literal 20-something pornstar as *Head of Institutional Lending*, Jessica Khater. 🤡🍆👩
None of them, there's one single family rental REIT (INVH) but that's not going to really be an apples-to-apples to owning a house.
I’m thinking INVH, mostly single family home rentals
Tricon residential($TCN) American Homes for Rent($AMH) and invitation homes ($INVH) have switched to building homes instead of buying them. I’m not sure what this means.
On the first point, you aren't wrong, but two clarifications: -They aren't using "cash" in the common sense, but raising equity or issuing corporate bonds. AMH is already at a PE ratio of what, 65? And they're getting destroyed YTD. INVH fundamentals look similar. Their ability to raise cash will be affected by rate increases, same as the consumer. If the real estate market starts going south, I expect both to be in a world of hurt. -Institutional investors make up a tiny fraction of the investment activity specifically in SFH. The maintenance/management eats into margins heavily, and the risk profile is far different than an apartment block.
Invitation Homes $INVH is another one.
They’re broadly invested across all global equities. They own a percentage of companies buying single family homes because they own a percentage of thousands of publicly traded companies. You wouldn’t say Blackrock makes iPhones because they own 6% of Apple. Vanguard an even larger share of INVH than Blackrock but no one says Vanguard is buying up single family homes
Blackrock literally doesn’t buy single family homes though. They’re a fun bogeyman for politicians both liberal and conservative and it’s been effective given how many people regurgitate it across social media. Why so many people fell for something that can easily be fact checked I don’t know. They do invest in companies that buy homes like INVH and AMH but thats to be expected given that they invest broadly across all American and global stocks.
Shorting real estate: $DRV, and INVH puts
INVH is a unique publicly traded company. I don't know the best strategy, though. They own about 80,000 rental homes in major cities around the country.
For INVH what are your strike prices and dates?
Got insight in build for rent stocks AMH and INVH
Also, nothing worth with holding cash, however, there's a few sectors that work well during high inflationary periods. Energy, Financials, REITS come to mind. Here's a few of my holdings. Energy: FANG, PXD, EOG. Financials: BRK/B, GS, BLK. REITS: PLD, INVH.
AMH is down 17.37% YTD $INVH is down 20.28% YTD VTI is down 18.08% YTD It's not just those two stocks that look like a car going downhill without brakes.
If you want to know what Wall Street thinks about the direction of home prices, all you have to do is look at $AMH or $INVH. These companies own huge numbers of rental homes and they are as good a proxy as there is for home prices in the future. Right now, they both look like a car going downhill without brakes.
Zillow, ABNB, INVH, COIN
Buying homebuilders on this ride down. Mortgage rates aren't going to kill demand, only a real recession and people losing their jobs will. Corporate investors (like INVH) have deals set up to buy as rental units at fixed paces which guarantees homebuilder pace closings. Add on to the grotesque amounts people are paying for these shit boxes in general as cash buyers. And all the analysts are pushing DHR/LEN/PHM this last earnings to as high of an option rate as possible to free up cash and start stronger buybacks and divvies. Less invested capital on large tracts of land up front means high ROE.
> BlackRock is an asset manager? So they manage/offer mutual funds, private funds, ETFs, etc? Yes, all the above. From the below source it looks like they are think Blackrock will do what Blackstone did - which is spin out another company that rents out homes, to use cash to buy more homes. INVH - invitation homes is that company. But they also do an real estate etf, IYR, but that is a mix of companies. My guess is that with the capital they have, they can do a little bit of everything. I do not believe they are buying mortgages and packaging them. But then again, they have an MBS etf. Easy to research blackrock, just google blackrock +MBS or whatever too see what they do. Source: https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/239520/ishares-us-real-estate-etf https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/239465/ishares-mbs-etf https://slate.com/business/2021/06/blackrock-invitation-houses-investment-firms-real-estate.html
It will happen in June when $600 million of mortgage debt is due, and INVH hasn't sold enough bonds to cover it.
It's a predatory and awful business practice, but in the pandemic environment it was a good play for them to make. Under 3% interest rates and a looming tightening of the market. Other tickers: SFR, AMH, INVH. I think they are probably a good bet to make good money with the mortgages going bananas. My wife and I benefitted from the low rate and our payment is totally manageable. We have a new single family home constructed in Chicago. The ones behind us that are almost completed are going for 25% more and have fewer options due to material shortages and their rates will be well over 5%. We are on the edge of a developing area close to downtown but also close to bad neighborhoods. Not sure if anyone is going to pony up at least 50% more per month than us to buy the same home. We would not have and I doubt our neighbors (also all mid-30s) would have either. It seems to cross into a different demographic that may not want to speculate on a developing area like we wanted to.
I wonder if those clowns that were talking about wanting to short Invitation Homes (INVH) over the last week or two ever went through with it after I explained in great detain why it was an awful idea.
The guy telling me to short INVH called Zillow perfectly. Let’s crush them
I don’t know about you all but I’m shorting INVH tomorrow.
Zillow has been going down for months. INVH is the next one. You’re welcome
Within increased rents, INVH (and any landlord, really) is covering all of its increased operating expenses, like property taxes, repairs & maintenance, utilities, insurance, property management and several other things, as well as their financing costs and profit. The amount by which they raised their year-over-year rents really isn't that far off the broad year-over-year increase in CPI housing. People aren't going to stop paying their rent over that. We're not talking about going to the movies or eating out or buying an Apple watch. We're talking about "baseline hierarchy of needs" housing.
It's a great business model. Housing isn't discretionary spending. Everyone needs somewhere to live. Zoning regulations and construction costs limit the amount of competing inventory that can enter a market. High interest rates mean far fewer households are able to get a home loan for their own purchases. INVH has a ton of very low rate fixed debt and they'll have a ton of FFO growth as this all plays out.
Short invitation homes INVH
>Ok but how does this impact equities like INVH that gobbled up houses in 2020 at record low rates on a short term basis? Are they going to get absolutely fucked if mortgage rates keep going higher? No, they have 98% fixed debt at a weighted average 3.4% interest rate and if asset prices decline they can be a big buyer.
Ok but how does this impact equities like INVH that gobbled up houses in 2020 at record low rates in a short term basis? Are they going to get absolutely fucked if mortgage rates keep going higher?
Are REITS and other property etfs going to get fucked my rising mortgage rates? What about something like INVH?
INVH is liquid enough during market open many days to open a spread without too big of a bid-ask spread. For whatever reason the spread on INVH is wider for the first and last 30 minutes of market open. You'll also have better luck during big movement days with INVH. But you'll probably want to hold it until expiration rather than closing a day or two early like is typically best. I had a call credit spread on INVH that printed.
Call credit spreads on INVH or AMH
Very few REITs involve single family homes (INVH being the main one.) Otherwise, REITs are primarily apartments, offices, data centers, warehouses, billboards, cell towers, malls, labs and a number of other things. I think it's not a bad idea to have some exposure to REITs but personally I think it's best to focus on what subsector of real estate you think has strong fundamentals both short/long term or perhaps occasionally finding strong assets you think are underappreciated. Too many people just buy "what yields the most", which winds up being stuff like mREITS, which get obliterated the moment there's even the slightest hint of a downturn.
Been holding cash since May 2021. Now slowly buying in. Cash - 50% Stocks portfolio - 50% Nasdaq 100 (QQQM) - 50% INVH - 10% AMH - 10% BABA - 15% NFLX - 15%
I'm talking single family homes like OP is (for example, INVH), not multi-family apartment buildings. There's plenty of apartment REITs.
Catching Reit daggers. ACC, EXR and INVH all look to be turning around after a sizeable dip and I need to diversify.
"Also, do you even think that REITs focused on single-family home is even a good business platform?" I think a decentralized group of houses is a difficult business, but INVH has seemed to do a pretty good job of it - if something like that can do it well and grow to a larger scale, there's some moat there. The only concern - and I'm not sure how much of a concern this is - is whether the uproar over large investors competing with average people for homes will eventually result in some sort of regulation (not likely, but maybe?) "In contrast, there are already many successful REITs focused on single-family homes." No, there's like 2 or 3. " It seems like more of the major publicly-traded REITs are focused on apartments." There's all sorts of REITs - billboards, data centers, malls, hotels, etc. Apartments are a fine choice over time although certainly going to go down in a downturn but not something involved with a larger growth theme (PLD and warehouses, ARE and life science demand, etc) or anything. The apartment REIT that's more interesting imo is NXRT, which is a small REIT that focuses on buying underfunded/mismanaged apartments, renovating them and then in many cases eventually selling. Other apartment REITs are often fairly static.
I've invested in the stock market for \~20 years now. Today is the day I made my first options trade, and it's completely thanks to all my fellow autists here. Thank you all for giving me the courage to gamble in a more efficient manner. If you're curious, I bought PUTs on INVH (invitation homes - the company the BlackRock spun off that holds their portfolio of single family rental homes). The real estate bubble should be ending soon. The home price to income ratio which is normally pretty stable has skyrocketed over the last 2 years and is at 2008 levels. 2006-2008 was the only other time we saw a huge increase and we know how that ended. Inventory is finally starting to open up again post-pandemic and houses are starting to sit on the market. Add to that the foreclosure wave which will hit soon, and the fact that all the new home starts (which finally started to increase during the pandemic) have started hitting the market, and you have the recipe for a bursting bubble. Zillow and opendoor were the first to learn this, but INVH is going to see some major losses if housing prices start to go down.
When is INVH going to tank
The poster has said they worked for Zillow, so if that's true I would assume a high chance they know. I have also read that companies like Zillow will offload their excess inventory onto REITs like Invitation Homes (INVH) and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH). So if you have an insight and you're interested in making money off of the rentals of those houses, that's where I would look.
Well get in on their profits then, they distribute 90% of them: $INVH
You seen to be misunderstanding the nature of INVH's business. They are a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust). They are the largest holder of residential real estate in the US. They aren't in the "evictions business". They are in the residential rental property business.
Ignoreing the politics - this is a financial question. INVH seems to profit on transactions - evicting human beings. There is another profit vector - purchasing the underlying houses from the distressed landlords who have not been paid. WHo are the real players that will move needles (Black Rock is too big to result in a huge profit)
Two interesting Single Family Rental investments are Invitation Homes (INVH) & American Homes 4 Rent (AMH). Both leaders in the space and have a lot of room for growth. INVH is holding slightly more premium assets (higher price points, larger, etc.) but it’s trading appropriately tighter as a result.
$ELY 8/20 $35 CALLS $INVH 8/20 & 9/17 $40 & 42.5 Calls $CARR 12/17 $70 calls
Yes look to 2022. First the NOD (notice of default) is sent that gives them 90 days to remedy the delinquency. This can be drawn out to depending on how servicers react they could be swift and sell all the REOs to INVH, OPEN, and Zillow. So you might want to buy puts on TLT and go long INVH, OPEN and Zillow. Think iBuyer. They quickly clear out the REO market
Real estate agents are polishing the brass on the titanic. Glad to see WSB has caught on to this. Position: 10 OPEN 12/17 $25c Also have 10 INVH 1/21/22 $50c rolled them up took some profit after we hit a new high.
All SFH stocks will jump today on the Blackstone HPA acquisition story. INVH is another option.