MBS
Angel Oak Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF
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I went through Airbnb's last two 10-Ks. A third of their profit isn't from hosting. It's from the Fed, and that's unwinding
[Survey, 6 min] How AI tools affect retail traders' decision biases — Bachelor research, MBS France
Trump, Twitter & Truth Social: How to Move Markets like a Pro
Kevin Warsh isn't just a new Chair. He represents a monetary "Regime Change" (The 1951 Accord logic)
Trump Admin. OKs double MBS purchases, to $450M from GSE's
RKT - YOLO - 60k Shares + SELLING Options against them. $1.3M (4000% some lots) Gains + some CC LOSSES (and lessons learnt)... & Discussion
$OPEN - Trump Tells Fannie, Freddie to Buy $200 Billion of Mortgage Debt
What is Value Investing? (VI according to Graham & Buffet)
BofA: Fed’s RMPs, combined with Treasury issuance strategy, may create QE-like market effects
Everybody talks about the AI bubble going to burst, but how? And what are the implications for the small investor?
Can anyone explain in simple terms, the different types of derivatives, named in the book "The Big Short"?
General discussion question and my answer
Trump Unfiltered: ABC Blowup, Powell Threats, Epstein Files
MBS in town tomorrow / NVIDIA - AI Trade ?
Someone advised me to construct a portfolio of 50% junk bonds, 30% Treasuries, and 20% MBS. Is this typical ?
Why did assets collectively plummet despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut? The market seems to be repeating itself from 2008.
Why did assets collectively plummet despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut? The market seems to be repeating itself from 2008.
Will the Fed end QT this week?
$FNMA $FMCC “F2” IPO DD - My Retirement Trade
Pimco’s Warning on a Fannie-Freddie IPO: ‘Don’t Fix What Is Not Broken’
Does anyone without a high net worth mess with mortgage backed securities still?
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac up 20%. Trump administration plans IPOs later this year valuing them near $500B combined
Who will buy bonds if interest rates drop? Answer: A lot of people
60% Canadian mortgage renewals up for renewal 2026. What to short?
Rising Mortgage Delinquencies
Mentions
Cut SOFR sell MBS, long duration. Steepen the curve and crash the market, Warsh is going to be good for banks and depositors and crush equities
I know what he did what I’m saying is you usually can be elite at one product in finance. MBS specialist is not going to be as good in FX or metals or equities. He seems to try to call the top in markets he has no experience being a “guru” in. And does because it makes headlines and he likes the fame of that. It’s obvious. My point is when he says he’s shorting semis why should I listen? What track record does he have in knowing AI? Or any modern market? He recognized defaults rates in homes were picking up 20 years ago. Most hedge funds are smarter than him and they trade the market given.
It looks authentic because AI won’t be stupid enough to call MBS the President of Saudi Arabia
Finance is hard. You’d be lucky to be super right on one market one time like burry was with MBS/CDOs. Why people listen to him about a market he clearly has no clue in understanding is beyond me. He was a flash in a pan. Not a guru
The issue with the '08 crisis wasn't just that MBSes were fraudulently being rated AAA, it's that highly rated debt is used as collateral for short term liquidity. Banks, insurance companies, any company that has a lot of long-term holdings and could theoretically need a lot of cash on short notice, use their long-term assets as collateral for liquidity (same concept as home owners getting a HELOC) via repos or other measures. So the value of these MBSes collapsed and with it came a liquidity crisis until the Fed fired up the money printer to buy all the garbage MBSes from the banks to bail them out and pump cash into the economy. In the meantime, people got fucked as the economy went to shit, the value of their homes went down, and they lost their jobs, which resulted in more people selling their houses, lowering the prices of houses even more, more people defaulting, etc. In my view, a company like SpaceX can definitely pump and dump and the bag holders will be fucked. But I don't see how the AI bubble bursting will have the same ripple effects as the MBS market collapsing did.
Lip service. They all talk about reigning in the balance sheet but none of them outline a plan. He says he doesn't want as many MBS great. Except they are extremely sticky an essentially can only be rolled of by maturity, so 30 year (or we can crash the MBS market again). You see him propose a MBS purchase moratorium? FED even under powell has tried to roll off balance sheet to be hit by REPO market throwing tantrums essentially indicating that liquidity floor for ample reserve has been following the sheet up. He going to crash the financial system? Everyone wants a Volcker move in the FED but that was in the days of scare reserves we are now in Bernankes ample reserve framework (further adopted by Powell). So there is a very real ugly reality, there is very little they can do as the financial system has grown around this and it requires long term transitioning off. And it requires fiscal policy side as well. Warsh like Powell before him will try walk the line of being credible enough to sell debt while not crashing the system. If you want an interesting read on this I think Russel Napiers interview back in 2021 ish was spot on for the structural change in markets we are seeing where Monetary policy of the central banks starts to get dwarfed by fiscal policy needs. \ https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606
unlike the MBS, AI is not build on lies - it's just a matter of how fast it will advance
MBS told Mango to fuck off and cutoff use of their airspace and bases. Whole project concluded in 36 hours.
Because people misunderstand how banks make money. All they do is facilitate transactions or hold assets on their books etc. and skim the top. A company doesn’t want to hold inventory they don’t plan on using for months-years? The bank will hold it for you and charge interest. People always think banks make money on mortgages but those are bundled up and sold immediately as MBS or in a different type of derivative. Banks rarely if ever lose money because all transactions are hedged. It takes large market downturn or being caught conducting tax avoidance transactions or fines, etc. As long as banks have cash, they’re going to make lots of money unless there are 0 investment opportunities.
Lucid is an interesting company. They're taking a while to release their SUV. I feel like they have potential use in Motorsport, especially the direction Formula 1 is heading. Does that add wight to future growth. Plus MBS is all in. 🤷🏿♂️ But, I'm just musing cause I always....
It's also probably a factor that by some accounts MBS/KSA are pushing the war, and others are not so happy about it. Not making for great economic political alliances. That said, it's a potentially dangerous game for UAE. If the Hormuz/Iran situation suddenly reverses, Saudi will again have the upper hand in pricing power.
MBS might have some strong opinions on it. He already blockaded Qatar by land once. He can find excuses to do it again.
Long on INTC, FNMA, FMCC, and BULL. INTC U.S. will not allow to get crushed. Huge ecosystem moat (x86 dominance). Massive revenue base ($54B+) enabling heavy R&D. 18A process in high‑volume manufacturing. AI PC upgrade cycle tailwind. Foundry business gaining first major customers. Geopolitical support. FNMA and FMCC - Massive market share (~45% each) — Together they guarantee about $7 trillion in U.S. mortgages, giving them unmatched scale. - Critical to U.S. housing liquidity — They buy mortgages, package them into MBS, and guarantee against default, stabilizing the entire housing system. - Conservatorship roadmap emerging — Treasury and FHFA have issued guidelines for an eventual release, boosting investor sentiment. - Potential privatization upside — If released from conservatorship, equity holders could benefit from repricing as government ownership unwinds. - Strong earnings base — Recent net income: FNMA ~$21B, FMCC ~$19B. BULL - Strong cash generation — Webull’s 2025 surge in operating and free cash flow materially strengthened its financial flexibility. - Profitability turnaround — The company moved into profitability in 2025, improving investor sentiment. - Growing global footprint — Expansion into Canada, Latin America, and Europe is rapidly increasing AUM and user base. - Subscription revenue momentum — Webull Premium and paid analytics products are exceeding targets, boosting recurring revenue. - Product innovation (AI assistant Vega) — Enhances engagement and supports higher ARPU. - Zero‑commission expansion — New zero‑commission trading in Canada increases competitiveness. Contrarians welcome.
I watched the whole 2.5hr confirmation hearing. I think his plan is to offload the b/s of non-treasury assets while simultaneously lowering rates. This will add a bunch of MBS' to the market and supply will increase and demand will decrease as a result. Pensions, REITS, insurers will become the primary market but they will demand higher yields as a result. Could be a good way for them to transition out of the private credit toxic sludge pool they're holding onto now. However, that would probably result in very high mortgage rates. I think there's more to what he's trying to accomplish than easing stagflation or preventing increased inflation. In his confirmation hearing, he basically pitched the idea of Monte-Carlo-ing the rates and throwing out all of the "one time" or "transitionary" inflationary risks that are impacting the upward movements on prices. So, he's going to figure out how to exclude things like tariffs, oil shocks, etc. from the data and see what the "true underlying rate is" and go from there. In my opinion, these "one time impacts" are vast and compounding in nature and shouldn't be excluded from the overall analysis or dataset. Bottom line is, if he wants to massage the numbers to accomplish what Trump wants him to do, it'll happen, and there's nothing we can really do to stop that at this point.
He also allegedly likes to torture and kill cats, so he’s perfect company for Bibi and MBS
The joke just writes itself, or in this case comments. Another textbook economist with the memory retention of a road kill, nice of you to be talking about MBS tranches by rating agencies like it's the sole culprit when multiple people involved had criminal prosecution levied against them exactly because they colluded with the banks to let it happen. The fact that something that illegal has happened and you're still over here like "Bessent won't do that because it's highly illegal!!" after the last full year of this admin doing all sorts of illegal shit makes you look extra fucking dumb. Also I'm in my 40s with kids and net aum north of 9 digits, your response screams broke economist that has never made anything off the market outside of yapping about all the things that has happened around it. Sybau.
It is not illegal for Trumps buddy MBS to short futures when told the USA and Israel are going to bomb Iran.
The market can do anything it wants, never has it been more walled off from the real economy, and is at one of its most deregulated points in its recent history. Omissions, lying, cooked financials, insider trading are all allowed because the billionaires quite literally are running the government and are letting the market get away with whatever it wants lol. It’s also heavily automated, so the second something hits Bloomberg terminal, or combination of metrics occurs, the funds trade to protect themselves and hedge toward profit. Unless you see private equity debt get caught in the open as being worthless, or the sudden devaluation of a large swathe of the MBS market like in the late 2000s, this markets going to continue to rip up.
Even when he was right the first time, ratings agencies were still handing out AAA ratings all the way up until the end on MBS, so even if he's right again he still has to battle through a system of total corruption to be proven right.
Everything he has made big bets on since the MBS market crash has been a dud.
People give Michael Burry way too much attention. He is quite literally the definition of a 1 hit wonder and shorting MBS wasn’t even his idea.
Yeah, I'm sure we can trust AI instead of the guy who literally made hundreds of millions of dollars from actually reading dozens of MBS prospectuses and picking the ones to buy credit default swaps on. Everyone else who got famous for buying CDS's in the lead up to the crash did so on the coattails of Burry's work. Spoiler: he's correct. The question is whether the market cares and when they will.
MBS just has to threaten to dump all his SPY shares and 🥭 will comply.
So no one cares then about GS missing badly on FICC, signaling problems in the MBS sector again? Okay
The average person does not understand what was going on in 2008 other than a “housing bubble.” This is anecdotal, but my friends don’t know the difference between a MBS, CDO, or CDS, and I’m willing to bet the average person wouldn’t either. Even today, people on social media (especially in this sub) don’t realize what they’re talking about.
CNBC and other sources put it around $3T but it’s hard to estimate and $3T might even be conservative. Either way relative to the total credit market, hundreds of trillions, it’s a drop. The majority of the private credit crunch tied to software company borrowing is actually due in 2028, roughly 25% matures then, not now. Private credit alone doesn’t pose a systemic risk in my opinion and that seems to be the rough market consensus too. Partly because as the name implies most of it is private. In 2007-08 when Bear Stearns showed the first signs of stress it looked to every expert like a contained issue. No metrics, no formulas that could assess the real extent of it. I’ll assume some here know what changed with Basel III so I won’t go deep but essentially banks are now forced by regulation to transfer risk off their balance sheets. In practice: ∙ Banks lend to private credit firms profiting off spreads and fees while credit risk sits off their balance sheet inside the fund ∙ BNPL providers (PayPal, Klarna etc.) originate loans and immediately securitize them as ABS, repackaged into CDOs. Structurally different from GFC era instruments but not necessarily safer ∙ Insurance companies hold this paper under accounting rules that don’t require mark-to-market so losses stay invisible until they aren’t ∙ CLO pools are leveraged and tranches get sold to other funds or shadow entities It looks much smaller than a GFC scenario but we genuinely don’t know the real scale. Before Basel III the entities doing this were mostly banks so even when risks were disguised a rough picture could be captured if anyone looked hard enough. Now the risk is dispersed across private unregulated opaque entities. Could be smaller than feared, could be larger. Nobody knows. What I’d stress: MBS was a regulated, rated, publicly traded market. Most of what’s being discussed here is private, unrated, or held by entities with no mark-to-market obligation. We won’t know the real exposure until someone is forced to recognize it and by then it’s already a crisis.
Scam Altman and Peter Theil are in intense talks with MBS to open the gays again
The GCC never trusted Iran and this has pushed them closer to Israel than anything. MBS is whispering in trumps ear to get rid of this regime.
Check the upcoming Netanyahu remix called The Reveal (Ashkelon pipeline) that will give Iran regime the sads. Kushner creates beats to MBS rapping about a new partnership and dropping deals with the old regime. Trump never knew what hit him got played bad but everyone making money so..
Haha, with Jared Kushner married to Ivanka and is close pals with Netanyahu even proposing this is pure fantasy. Sorry friend but it's worse than you can imagine. Israel is bombing to collapse Irans power from within and source of income- oil, so they can show the world how unreliable the regime is and Israeli is offering an alternative to their oil, by proposing an Israeli pipeline in a new location to bypass Irans. They've been planning this for decades and to complicate it, Kushner already signed personal deals recently with MBS for investment funds, because they're chums who see ways to exploit one another and this manufactured crisis.
MBS/Saudis are investing in the Ellisons directly which aim to consolidate right wing power over the media, to control the message viewers see. They're also cutting deals with Kushner and Witkoff to build out new oil pipelines to Israel that can bypass Iran and cut them off from regional dominance. New alliances that will profit more from crude and gas sales and shipment and control U.S. politicians.
It's partly to show Iran isn't reliable and people will seek other partners to buy crude from. Like the Saudis, Qatar and the U.S.. and eventually Israel, who wants to become a gang in the oil club by building out a new regional pipeline. The violent population removal in Gaza was about this as is bombing south Lebanon. They also just recognized Somaliland in Dec as a real country and are bribing the leader to give them a military base there so they can better control the Houthis and help give security to the strait of Hormuz. Israel and Kushner also have done deals to partner with MBS to create a new regional partner for future projects. All corrupt players are united and Iran is being cut out. Mods will ban my post if I put up a link but for more of a newer big picture summary just search YouTube for @moreperfectunion post 'How Trump's Son in Law Became a Foreign Agent'. Search Google for Israel pipeline plans too. Look for 'Israeli PM Proposes Mediterranean Pipeline to Bypass Strait of Hormuz' and similar will show up.
That's when demand destruction hits and real lasting damage is done. If you wondered why Trump was always so focused on cancelling renewables (and personally invested in energy companies, banks and defense sector early on this term) now you're understanding how widespread his and his sons corruption has grown. Their crypto schemes were just a start to dig out of his first term debt. Now he's rigged things to invest first then engage in war which affects many levers, and stocks- which he sees a pattern of that easily drop and rip depending on sentiment. He and his cronies have banked big, as has Putin and MBS through high oil prices. And ironically, the Iranian regime.
And then MBS cut up his nephew. Small world.
Pretty much the same thing now. Trump and MBS are intertwined at every level
Kushner and Graham, working with MBS/Netanyahu and Mossad respectively manipulated the old man into it. They all know how easy he is to manipulate.
Because the risk would be too large. In 08 they just capitalized the loans. They were able to do that because MBS losses were overwhelming the entire revenue of the company. This time, there would be no revenue, or not enough, no matter how much money they print.
He thought it would be a 48 hour war like Venezuela. Kill the leader, Iran collapses. Go take Iran. It did not go as planned. Ali Khamenei was the second most prominent man in their faith. No one in the west realize about the level of grievance that murder caused across the muslim world. Also, killing world leaders sends a message to other world leaders. And it is not a good one. And bypassing international law also sends a very bad message. Add insulting allies to the list. Trump saying that MBS would kiss his arse is extremely offensive. Trump insulting the Japanese lady in the White House with that reference to Pearl Harbor was out of place too.
Mid 50’s here and prepping for retirement. Market timing in & out of cash isn’t for me. Once I retire I won’t spend my stash all at once the day after I retire. I’ll need money over 30years and hopefully more. So it will suffer some crashes and some runups. Therefore I need to match risk & liabilities with proper duration, diversification … which means the right asset allocation for our situation. I ve been diversifying & rebalancing in 1Q and yes that includes buying equities as they ve gone down. Since you said things are so bleak now, what words did you use to describe - 2025 liberation day/ week - 2022 crash in both stocks & bonds - 2020 March covid - 2008-09 credit seizing up, MBS meltdown followed by Great Recession - 2001 market reopen after 9/11 - 2001 Telecom bust - 2000 DotCom crash …
Covers every imaginable security, from simple things like stocks up to the most complicated securities like MBS, CDS, plus access to institutional research etc etc. Not sure why a junior trader(?) that barely knows what a stock option needs a BT.
After what happened with Kristi Noem's husband I would not be the least bit surprised to learn that Jared is getting cornholed by MBS on the reg.
Netanyahu, MBS, MBZ, etc. want an invasion.
BIG BEAUTIFUL SPEECH tonight!? Don't bother... just watch /ES, /CL, $SPY, $USO, etc... for unusual trade activity in the hours leading up to this. If you have a service that realtime scans for unusual options activity, even better. Whoever's insider trading probably layered in the trade position during market hours, but that's not 100%. Instead, Mango might be getting pulled left and right by phone calls from Bibi, MBS, Lady Lindsay, Kegsbreath, etc... so even HE isn't sure what direction to go into until just before. It's likely that the mole dishing out insider info won't know for sure the direction of the speech until just before. One thing's for sure, the speech contents won't be a well-kept secret within the WH inner circle... cat's gonna get outta the bag prior to speech, and I want us to be the first to get to strangle it.
Yeah, us walking away with Hormuz closed will leave that region on fire. MBS and team will be pretty unhappy. I’m sure the US will get to keep all its air bases in those countries like Saudi and Qatar if they aren’t actively defending them. 🙄 Also, can you imagine the deals countries will cut with Iran? Will those deals include political outcomes Iran wants like dropping open support for Israel? Crazy.
MBS wasted how much on the failed Neom? This isn’t about money. It’s about geopolitics.
With who will the UAE would invade ? By paying mercenaries? Lol The only one left would be Saudia, look how they essentially lost against a armed insurgency (Houthis). SA buys peace with money with its own people but they people are not willing to die for MBS.
If MBS could cut a $30b check and have things go back to normal, he would in a heartbeat.
SA supposedly wanted it, where are you getting this information from? MBS was supportive according to multiple reports and I haven’t seen anything to the contrary. Mind sharing where you are getting your information as I would be curious to read.
I mean, Saudi Arabia only has themselves to blame for this. MBS and Netanyahu convinced Trump to do this. He just thought he'd get away with not having to commit any Saudi lives or money for it. Big fucking mistake to rely on Trump for this.
Perhaps MBS, but the other Arab leaders of Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE are not aligned with war and would rather make money. War prevents money from being made. Qatar and the UAE made significant investments with the US, but in the end, failed to adequately protect the GCC.
🎯 Saudi Arabia views itself as locked in an existential struggle vs Iran. MBS compares their leaders to Hitler, and he’s not speaking hyperbolically. He believes it. They believe Iran is bent on domination of the region to export Shia Islam into Sunni nations. Iran’s proxies aren’t just preoccupied by the destruction of Israel. They want to undermine every Sunni state.
Saudi Crown Prince MBS must be pissed after what he said yesterday. Not sure how that will play out behind the scenes in the GCC but adds an additional dimension.
Dude insulted MBS. That alone is enough to crash this shit
The market may not look good for Monday after 🥭 said MBS was kissing his arse.
I'm curious where you are getting your information as to blame allocation for the Strait closure. My friend who works in the various Gulf States (mostly the UAE) told me that even most Arabs he knows realize that America is destroying their countries/economies via Iran on behalf of Israel and MBS. I've honestly wondered how soon it would be before countries start agreeing to supply Iran with missiles and launchers (to be used only against Israel) in exchange for safe passage through the Strait and to avoid being targets.
Imagine watching insane tank explosion videos in the combatfootage forum in the 1st 3 days of the UKRRU war and someone wrote in the comments: 5 years from now Zelenski will be meeting MBS to make a deal for Gasoline in exchange to interceptors to destroy iranian suicide drones you will be like - i want whatever this guy is smoking.
Are we going to be red again because 🥭 made fun of MBS
🥭 said "MBS didn't think he'd be kissing my a\*\*". He is truly crazy.
Does anyone think there could be positive news over the weekend? In the form of a proxy war. Houthis entering the war today and yesterday Trump talking about MBS kissing ass surely can't be a coincidence. A proxy war is essentially a win/win for Iran & US. For Iran it avoids their country being directly attacked by US/Israel and the US can claim Iran backed down & strait ***slowly*** opens up. Ofc for Israel they can grab some land via Lebanon.
If bernanke and Paulson didn’t bail out the banks at the time they did there’s a very real possibility it would have nuked the entire global financial system….like no cash coming out of ATMs, panic in the streets, etc. And at the end of the day the federal government was paid back with interest. All of the people who cry about the bailout conveniently don’t address the way they might have handled it differently and how they imagine that would’ve played out. I’m not any more of a bailout fan than anyone else, but to a large degree it was necessary. The way to teach the people who were actually responsible lessons would have been aggressive SEC actions (especially into Goldman Sachs handling of their MBS portfolio in the beginning stages of the 2008 meltdown) once things stabilized on a macro level, alongside an FBI investigation into the ratings agencies for spending the entire early aughts essentially selling high grades on obscenely packaged CDLs brought to them by the banks. The only thing that refusing any bailout would’ve accomplished is chaos and it would’ve been Main Street that had to eat it.
I'm just waiting for MBS's family to give him the MBS treatment.
>Was the effect of greed/the thought that “the housing market cannot crash” that strong to blind them from doing DD? No. For a serious answer there were more than one effects in play. Most people know about the MBS situation and focus on that, as well as the bad correlations and poor statistical arguments, but you also had a real income fluctuation in 2007 which caused people to lose jobs and therefore lose the ability to maintain these balloon loans. So it wasn't the risk buried in the securities but instead the risk buried in the employment market that caused the crash overall. Think of it like doing DD on Meta but not realizing that Meta is reliant on pineapples in Malaysia flowing freely because a pineapple famine there results in the foreign workforce collapsing due to scurvy from vitamin C shortage for some critical task. No one is going to think of this but it's things like that which cause these issues. >Did the banks check to see why Burry wanted a massive position in Credit Default Swaps and if his theory had any legitimacy before selling Burry his massive positions in CDSs that would result in the banks having massive losses when they paid off? Did the banks hedge their risk against their exposure to Burry’s (and other) CDS positions and if so, why didn’t their hedge position(s) work? Yes, but hedging this position was easy. Remember, what actually "broke" wasn't banks, it was **insurance**, specifically AIG. The banks were super protected which is why they didn't mind taking it on; they already could not blow up. Yes, some bank exposure did occur, but again most of it was consumed by AIG and other insurance companies which effectively had to be bailed out. The losers here weren't the banks, because they just passed the risk on, but AIG who should have stopped them from breaking VAR models. Essentially you have too much focus on one player, the banks, but the game itself is bigger: 1. The unemployment rate rose in 2007. 2. The banks were heavily insured so it was free money for them. 3. The insurance companies and fed oversight were weak(er) at the time so they just ponied up when it came time to pay up on the grounds that they "couldn't have seen it coming" because it was the banks that blindsided them. The retelling of the story is fun but not 100% accurate.
Negotiations? Bibi said no deal. MBS said no deal. The Gulf States said no deal. So we ask for something outrageous and continue the fight. In return, the Iranians who don't trust us and ask for something equally outrageous, reinforce Kharg Island, and maybe the same for the Straits (use some of their 1 M in uniform). You've got 2 MEUs and the 82nd Airborne and possibly other forces out there? that could take limited amounts of territory, but maybe couldn't hold it or completely protect shipping in the Strait. Smash and grab? But Iranians would probably sink ships and destroy energy infrastructure, driving prices way up, threatening the Trump's bond market. So we play a war of attrition, our resupply versus Russia and maybe China resupply. We hope that we eventually gain the upper hand, but my guess is not this weekend. Really don't know how it ends. Maybe we end up with something like the "no fly zone" after the first Gulf War.
If I recall correctly they did hedge for the riskiest MBS but then sold CDS for the less risky ones thinking there was no way the default rates would ever touch those. Of course the CDS for the less risky ones command a higher payoff.
That's great but what about MBS and Bibi. That's the case against being bullish.
Nope. The problem with 2008 wasn't withdrawal rates. It was banks underestimating the volatility of MBS and were highly leveraged into these assets. These assets were also incorrectly rated by the rating agencies and people were incentivized to purchase mortgages like crazy and could easily do it without any income, job or asset and were still given a mortgage All of these in combination were bad combined. All the things you've linked is priced in. It's public information. 2008 the mechanic of how bad it could get and how many banks would start defaulting was not priced in until you start seeing bank failures, THEN those things started getting priced in.
Please tell me you're sarcastic. When the MBS tanked in 2008 did you say it wasn't happening because everyone said it was happening?
Imo trump is torn between boots on the ground and war and saving the global economy. It's escalated so much now for him that there are no good options, media reporting Saudis MBS is pushing him to finish the job.
While I really want to believe Trump is controlling the economy and the worst person ever, there may be another explanation, which isn't much better. It is more likely trump understands the movement of certain large investments. These exist in the form of what is called a Total Return Swap (TRS). In the Epstein files, you can read how Epstein predicted everything crashing, and discussing with a financial advisor (I believe from JP Morgan), about going long on OIL. These swaps were 5 year swaps, which started around June 2016, renewed in 2021. These TRS have BIG payments due this year, as the CDs and bonds mature. In order for their long oil positions to be positive, this war in the Middle East is essential. Some people Epstein met with while making these deals include Saudi crown prince MBS and the former prime minister of Qatar (two countries being hit heavily in this war, despite not being direct aggressors). It is likely trump followed Epstein on this investment. Large sales and purchases can't happen suddenly. The logistics don't function within the current market, but outside of it, in Dark Pools. If you look at the current dark pool buy orders, we are sitting at the bottom (SPY at 650). Trump knows when these tranches and swaps are due, and is likely just timing his posts to make it look like he is controlling the economy, so people don't become aware of their greater financial moves. June 1st is when their TRS full matures. If you look at option chains across any ticker, I bet you see heavy positioning for July and August, but not much before then. That is because the market is expecting heightened volatility before June. Markets seem to be positioning for as low as 250, and as high as 850. Gonna be a wild few months.
Lmao he threw MBS under the bus. Puts on Aramco
Oh god. MBS and Bibi got the dude by the balls. Taco Bell isn’t on the menu.
It’s a fucked war but people gotta remember that Iran postures as hard as anyone, it’s what countries do. The entire Middle East more or less happily helped out, and MBS has been egging trump on to attack Iran. It’s no secret the Saudi government doesn’t like the Iranian government. Obviously Israel wanted this too. But it’s crazy to act like Iran got along with the Arab states in recent history.
> Saudi Leader Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/saudi-prince-iran-trump.html Epstein and MBS were close friends and allies. https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/screenshot-2026-02-09-at-13-26-01.png?c=original&q=w_860,c_fill https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-saudi-arabia/ https://www.middleeasteye.net/trending/saudi%20arabia-crown-prince-photo-inside-jefrrey-epstein-mansion-fuels-criticism-online
MBS pushing for more war lol oil to $200
Bonesawer MBS pushing Trump to continue the war against Iran, per NYT.
The rumor on Wall St is that the Saudis will cover the reparations so the US can save face, but the MBS is reportedly now close to a decision to join the war. There’s this weird attitude in finance circles that nothing really bad can ever happen and this will all be over in a few weeks anyway. When the TACO put finally collapses we’re going to be in deep shit.
Of course he lied. His son is part owner of polymarket.. where you (and his family/friends) can literally bet on what the guy will say. It’s grifting that only takes second to Kush/MBS. There is no limit to the wealth they desire, it’s never enough, and they will not rest when more can be redirected from hardworking constituents like yourself, especially when stealing is this easy. Try to stay calm. Get outside. Restructure your life and avoid politics or gambling in any form. You can recover from this. Put down the shovel and you’ll be able to pull yourself out. Avoid the rabbit holes.. Be kind and you’ll see more come your way.
Shout out to MBS for flooding the desert that one time..
You're wrong, for a number of reasons: 1. Private credit loans are way less levered (and therefore risky) than RMBS. 2. Private credit loans, while perhaps somewhat exposed to "buying at the top" via multiple expansion, are ultimately loans against a cash generative business vs. RMBS loans which are backed by crappy, inflated housing that has no intrinsic economic value. 3. ABS is often pointed to as the bogeyman of '08 by people who don't know what they're talking about, but the real differentiating feature of the '08 crash was not ABS per se but rather the scale it was able to achieve through synthetic ABS. In order to amass such a hugely levered, highly-correlated pile of long bets on US housing, banks had to use credit default swaps to replace the supply of subprime MBS that they were running out of in \~2005 - this by the way is also why it touched the insurance sector, since their insurance contracts formed the basis of cash flows in a synthetic RMBS offering. In this way, the already under-estimated correlation between mortgage delinquencies in different parts of the country was compounded by a synthetics market that effectively created the appearance of more diversification while really just increasing levered exposure to the same correlated part of the real economy. 4. The mark-to-market mechanics which accelerated the unwinding of RMBS and synthetic RMBS in 2008 and made it so catastrophic to the highly levered institutions which held these assets at the time have no analogue today. The valuation dynamics of private equity are by and large much more decentralized and less conflicted than the practices observed in '08, in which large issuer banks acting in a conflicted capacity as both principal and agent while structuring synthetic RMBS would have free rein to participate on both sides of the trade and then set prices marks favorably for their own position. In short, there is a difference between pre-08 and post-08 when dodgy loans moved into the shadow banking sector...the difference is that if these loans blow up the carnage is largely constrained to PC funds and the LPs who invest in them.
Private equity debt is considered risky and as such has a higher capital requirement. The rated note feeders repackage different sets of PE debt to create notes that are rated to be less risky and therefore have a lower capital requirement, similar to how varying tranches of MBS were repackaged to be less risky
We just need the Qataris and Saudis to dangle another jet or two in front of 🍊’s face so he won’t cause one of the biggest crises of the decade. Anybody got an Emir or MBS’s number?
Apples to Oranges. Mortgage backed securities were treated like T notes pre 08. This meant they were tied into pension funds, money market funds, banks being able to over leverage as mortgages were considered more stable. This is before you even get into the mess of insurance on MBS securities that wont exist with private credit. Dont get me wrong it can be bad but its not fundamental to the entire market.
I think the MBS market was like 7.3 trillion in 2007 which would be like 11.3 trillion in today's money. The mortgage market it was based on was like 6 trillion which is like 9.5 trillion in today's money. 11.3 + 9.5 = 20.8 trillion total housing bond + MBS market in 2007 compared to 4.5 trillion in the private lending market. So about 1/4 of the size of the 2008 crisis in terms of market impact BUT also the overall market is bigger now in dollar terms so its impact on the market and banks is likely also reduced by that factor. I think these things combined with also as other have said this being mostly exposed to a few select banks, hedge funds and UHNW people vs the pensions, 401ks etc of 2008 means its not going to have the same level of impact on the broader economy. Sure its probably going to be bad for some people but not catastrophic. Maybe there is something I am missing but I just don't see it right now.
Sounds good to me. America should step back and let the IDF put boots on the ground. I'm sure MBS and MBZ will ride into battle right alongside them like in Lord of the Rings.
So my Ai said this cuh, ong you a cuck You’re stacking a lot of real risks—but the mistake is assuming they all **resolve in the same bearish direction at the same time**. Markets rarely give you that clean outcome. Let’s build the **actual bull case**, not a strawman. --- # The Bull Case for U.S. Stocks (mid–late 2020s) ## 1) The U.S. can run higher debt than you think Yes, debt/GDP may exceed World War II levels. But here’s what matters more than the number: * The U.S. issues debt in **its own currency** * That currency is the global reserve: United States dollar * Global system still runs on dollar liquidity (trade, energy, collateral) Japan has run **250%+ debt/GDP for decades** without collapse. **Bull takeaway:** High debt ≠ bearish by itself. It often leads to: * financial repression * moderate inflation * asset inflation (stocks ↑) --- ## 2) “Everyone is fully invested” is usually a myth That Reddit take is classic late-cycle thinking—but positioning data rarely supports “no buyers left.” Reality: * Pension funds still need to allocate * Sovereign wealth funds still deploy * Retail panic → creates buyers on dips * Corporations themselves = **largest buyers via buybacks** Companies like: * Apple * Microsoft are constant **structural demand** for equities. **Bull takeaway:** There is always a marginal buyer—especially when prices drop. --- ## 3) Stagflation is possible—but not the base case You’re right: stagflation would be toxic. But here’s the pushback: * Labor market is **cooling, not collapsing** * Productivity may rise from tech adoption * Supply-side improvements (reshoring, energy) If inflation trends from \~3–4% → \~2.5–3%: → the Federal Reserve can still: * cut gradually * ease financial conditions We don’t need 0% rates again. Just **less tight policy** is bullish. --- ## 4) AI doesn’t need perfection to justify valuations You’re assuming AI = bubble unless it becomes AGI. That’s too binary. Even without AGI: * automation of **10–20% of white-collar tasks** * software margin expansion * cost reduction across industries Companies like: * Microsoft * NVIDIA don’t need sci-fi outcomes—just **incremental productivity gains**. **Bull version of your point:** Even if 80% of AI spend is inefficient… the 20% that works can justify massive value. --- ## 5) Private credit stress ≠ systemic collapse You’re right it’s stretched. But compare to 2008: * Banks are better capitalized * Risk is **more distributed** * No single asset (like subprime MBS) dominates Firms like: * Apollo Global Management * KKR may take hits—but that’s not the same as system failure. **Bull takeaway:** This is more likely a **contained credit cycle**, not a collapse. --- ## 6) The U.S. still dominates globally (this matters more than macro doom) Relative performance > absolute perfection. Compare the U.S. to: * China → property crisis, demographics * Europe → slow growth, fragmentation Where does global capital go? → still the U.S. Because: * deepest capital markets * rule of law * tech leadership * innovation pipeline **Bull takeaway:** Even if the U.S. is flawed, it’s still the **best house in a bad neighborhood**. --- ## 7) Earnings can grow even in a “meh” economy This is where most bears get caught. Stocks follow: >earnings × multiple Even if multiples compress: * cost cutting * automation * pricing power → earnings can still grow S&P 500 is dominated by high-margin firms now, not industrials. --- ## 8) Inflation can actually be bullish (to a point) Moderate inflation (2–4%): * inflates nominal GDP * boosts corporate revenues * reduces real debt burden This is literally the environment where equities often outperform bonds. --- ## 9) Buybacks + passive flows = structural tailwind This didn’t exist in 2000 or 1929 at the same scale. Drivers: * 401(k) auto-investing * index funds (constant inflows) * corporate buybacks This creates a **persistent bid under the market**. --- ## 10) Your SaaS/VC argument is half right—but incomplete Yes: * multiples compressed * bad startups will die But: * survivors become **more profitable** * competition gets wiped out * capital reallocates to winners That’s actually bullish long-term. --- # The real bull case in one sentence You don’t need a perfect economy— you just need: * moderate growth * controlled inflation * no systemic crisis …and stocks grind higher. --- # Where your thesis could be right To keep it real (not just bullish spin), your view wins if: * inflation stays >4% AND growth collapses * private credit causes forced deleveraging * AI capex fails to produce returns * policy mistake by the Federal Reserve That’s a **specific combo**, not guaranteed. --- # Final pushback (intellectual sparring) Right now your stance is: >“Too many things are broken → market must go down” The market doesn’t work like that. It prices: * probability * timing * relative outcomes If even **2–3 of your bearish points don’t materialize**, equities can still outperform cash. https://preview.redd.it/p7wy12mfdhqg1.jpeg?width=1106&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a7958457ae05d80cf447cf19caea050e593b3d7
lol but MBS loves Trump and Qatar gave him a jet. Fuck em
* If the US surrenders to Iran and removes all troops from military bases in the region, Iran will reopen the Strait and oil prices will drop. SPY will fall in the long term because the petrodollar system would be over. * If the US "declares victory" and keeps its bases in the region, Iran will keep the Strait closed to any countries associated with the US and Israel. Oil prices will remain high and the S&P 500 will drop in the long term because the petrodollar system will be over. * If the US puts boots on the ground as part of a "quick military action" to take Kharg Island or grab nuclear material, Iran will destroy all oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf states. Oil will immediately skyrocket and will remain elevated for many years. The S&P 500 will immediately crash. * If the US escalates into a decades long ground war, oil will skyrocket. The main street American economy will crash into a new great recession and taxpayers will be on the hook for enormous amounts of debt. The stock and real estate markets will drop temporarily, but after poor people are forced to sell to the rich at a loss, they will recover. The owners of American oil companies, defense contractors, tech companies, Wall Street firms, etc. will make a fortune. Israel will create Greater Israel and build a large oil pipeline from the Gulf states to Israel that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. A ton of Americans, Iranians, and migrant workers in the Gulf will suffer and die. But the Israelis, Epstein elites, and Gulf state monarchs will make a fortune in the long run. It's obvious that Netanyahu, Trump, MBS, etc. are going to go with the fourth bullet option. It's been the plan for years as outlined in the Abraham Accords. It's why Mossad helped Trump get elected, helped MBS purge his family for the crown, helped Keir Starmer become the British Prime Minister, etc. The biggest risk is that the rest of the world has figured out what they’re doing. (Using Jared Kushner as a fund manager and a diplomat at the same time made it particularly obvious.) That includes foreign powers like China and Russia as well as the domestic populations of their own countries. They need to escalate this war as quickly as possible before they’re overthrown through a peaceful, democratic process or a violent rebellion.
GTFOH MBS Chopped up a Journalist.
Those people sold my dad MBS in 2007 and 2008 he lost a decent chunk of money when the banks started dumping that crap on retail investors. Private Equity is weak because they have gotten no return on the AI trade, the Trump Administration just loosened banking rules on lending, and Elon is trying to get SpaceX fast tracked to an S&P listing to gain access to the 24 trillion passive investment pool. It all adds ups to another financial meltdown. And with Trump’s team of idiots in the Whitehouss who know what will happen.
It kind of seems like Iran's plan is to just constantly launch drones at Israel forever. Most will miss, but just enough will hit to ensure that Israelis have to spend 99% of their lives in bomb shelters. And of course, each interception of a $20,000 drone will cost American taxpayers $4 million. Plus the debris will still fall to the ground and hit something. The same applies to the UAE. No expat tax dodger, influencer cum escort, or desperate migrant slave worker is going to live there knowing that they can be vaporized by a random drone at any moment. Dubai is the second busiest airport on Earth, and Iran has hit them multiple times. Even if you aren't killed, suffering through those flight delays will make you wish you were. If you're Netanyahu or MBS, you can jet off to DC or London whenever you want, but regular people have to live with this. If there was any real estate value, living standard, or anything else worthwhile in these places, it's gone. It's not like a British bomb shelter in a movie where everyone pulls together. People in those countries were at each others throats politically even before all this crap started. Netanyahu was facing prison for corruption. MBS purged his entire family for the crown. It's worse in Iran, but they've been living under awful conditions for many years. What more can sanctions do that the previous decades of sanctions couldn't? What targets are left for the US and Israel to bomb? They're already at rock bottom and have nothing more to lose. All Israelis could flee to the US. All of the Gulf state plutocrats could flee to London and still have the highest standard of living of anyone there. But there's nowhere on Earth for Iranians to go. They're backed into a corner and have no option but to fight their way out.
If I was a betting man, I’d guess those were actually serious plans, but never meant to be financed alone. They were supposed to draw other investors, which didn’t materialize. No, I doubt it was any money laundering plans around them. I don’t think MBS would put his reputation on the line just to launder some money.
Interesting take. I was in KSA last year and met with the ministry of AI, ministry of advanced manufacturing, and ministry of sustainability. I was shocked by their definition of “large” capex projects ($500B) versus what we think “large” is. However, after huge sums of money being spent there, everything they do look like hobbies. They are getting ripped off by western consultants that charge them criminal amounts of money and teach them how to download ChatGPT on their phones. /s Will they actually pull funding? Doubt it. They want to tell the world they’re serious about AI and sustainability. MBS announced he wants less than 50% GDP to be petroleum based. My random guess, this war will accelerate his plan to reduce oil economy reliance and increase investment in AI (really data centers) and renewable energy manufacturing (solar panels and desalination or hydrogen production)
When 🥭 meets with MBS: Who knows better about surprises than Saudi Arabia? Why didn't you tell me about 9/11?
It's complex and I don't like it either. Qatar hosts US bases and allows Israel to fly over it's airspace. Qatar and UAE always knew they would be involved in a regional war. This shouldn't have been a surprise. MBS and Trump seem to be the only people surprised by this.
Possibly: The unwind is from 10's to shorter Treasuries, specifically anything shorter than 17weeks. To be completely our guys did the same thing. When the cost of funds was .5% our guys borrowed at that Rate and bought MBS or Higher Corp Bonds B or better rated.
Lol dude, we've been talking to each other all day. There's only a dozen or so actual humans in this thread. You've been talking about politics too. It's neither of our faults that the single most important thing driving the global market right now is geopolitics. The little jokes and nuance matter. For example, Saudi Arabian ministers (but not the Crown Prince) criticized Israel directly for the first time a few minutes ago. If they flip teams like Iran wants, that could signal the end of the entire petrodollar system. > Riyadh ministers condemn Israel’s actions against Lebanon and its broader expansionist policies. The simple fact is that Trump, Netanyahu, and MBS are extremely unpopular at home. Trump was impeached twice, Netanyahu faced prison for corruption, and MBS got the crown by purging his entire family Game of Thrones style. So a joke about handing them over to Iran tells you exactly what's going on inside each of these countries. If you don't like the implication, that's fine. You're welcome to gamble away all your money on the other side of the bet. But this is more relevant to the market than absolutely anything else that happened today including JPow, Micron, and Meta abandoning the Metaverse.
You think if we handover Trump, Netanyahu, and MBS, the Iranians would let us go? I'm pretty sure about 8.3 billion humans would see that as win-win situation.