MBS

ShokTherapy

MBS is literally a 13 year old child in the body of a man. Its like if Elon Musk ran a petrostate, I hope a houthi missile gets him and someone competent takes over.

acemedic

We knew about the “investment” of $2 billion from MBS as he also overrode the sovereign wealth funds recommendation to not put the money with Kushner. Nothing new here. Nobody gave a shit about it cause Hunter Biden got a check for $30,000. Much more important.

Invinciblez_Gunner

Kushner saved MBS in the aftermath of chopping up the reporter in the Saudi Consulate in Turkey

GhettoMuppet

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was the actual buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's Salvator Mundi, which sold for a record-breaking $450.3 million at a Christie's auction in New York in November 2017. After the sale, the painting was kept in storage then moved to a superyacht (Serene). Imagine decorating your superyacht with Da Vincis.

spendology

More of the Great Financial Crisis hidden derivative risk - MBS, MBO, CDS, CDO...Off the Balance Sheet risk and bullshit.

HearshotKDS

They are speaking past each other, or maybe more accurate are speaking on different levels - not unexpected from a conversation between a junior analyst and the CEO. Sullivan is speaking about the broader MBS market which hadnt seen significant drawndown yet. He doesnt realize Tuld is referring to the firms future in that market. The firm is so overleveraged - Sullivan makes that "25% drop in value would be a greater loss than the market cap of the company" - but its a massive disaster well before you get to "full market cap loss", even just a small downturn in the mortgages would lead to such a massive loss that it would cost people jobs, tank the stock (and the networth of almost everyone in that meeting), lead to the mother of all D&O lawsuits, and at that point maybe even bring prison time (although with the benefit of hindsight we now know that was effectively not on the table outside of that 1 guy). The firm wouldnt survive a 2-3% market drawdown as that would lead to *Margin Calls* that couldnt be met, forcing liquidations that would further drop the market leading to a death spiral.

pm_me_yo_creditscore

MBS said he gonna bukkake OPEC

confused_teabagger

Then parcel them out as CDO tranches? Larry Fink invented MBS's btw!

NeuroLeak

BREAKING: Following the Houthi's new attacks, Saudi Crown Prince MBS has officially changed his name to IBS

yourgirl696969

Middle East about to erupt in the next couple weeks. 🥭 retardmaxing and for some reason, MBS is acting just as retarded. It’s like a retard circle jerk

Successful_Car1670

Saylor describes btc like they’re MBS. I think we need a synthetic cdo of MSTR

Parallel-Quality

Just like how the banks called their investors and let them know about how the MBS’s were worth nothing right? By the time they do that, they’ll already have unloaded all of their stock and assumed a short position, with retail holding the bag.

Rock_or_Rol

Gulf states too.. they’re all getting squeezed Tank the yen on top of that, it’s done. Personally, I don’t see any structural failures until next quarter unless the Iran war escalates and they wipe out 10% of the worlds oil and intensify the crack spread while we overreact to a chain of nonsense that was started over what? Iran ratcheting up enrichment as a bargaining chip after we tore up the JCPOA at the behest of Israel and gulf states and started sanctioning them again for this exact reason? Over Yemen’s sand while their president sleeps in Saudi Arabia with MBS’s hand firmly up his ass as they genocide his own people? Such a stupid ass world. Every one of these catastrophic events is preceded by hubris and the rest of the world thinking, “no way they’d blow it all up over something so dumb. They’re the main beneficiaries of the global architecture, why throw it away for prestige that will ultimately slip away anyway? No, it’s just bluster.” It’s never about economics. It’s always about illusions of grandeur.

GregGirthman

Does MBS have a sister? At this rate me and her would date but I'm scared our children would have Habsburg chin.

Nervous-Sky2414

Oh no. WSJ reporting that MBS is shuttling from bunker to bunker to avoid Houthi drones and missiles.

GregGirthman

MBS should flee the country. Not safe.

LarryStink

2008 had MBS 202? has CBS (chip backed securities) same risk, same outcome, different asset, different timeline.

Happy-n-Healthy

MBS is such an asshole even the Saudis don't want to protect themselves from the Houthis

Emergency_Zone5456

i just saw that 2008 Lehman went belly up because they were 30:1 leveraged and the MBS went from gold to trash. 500k in that wolf would be a nice fireworks show, unless you’re aiming for a freehouse in a bankruptcy court. remember the “subprime bubble isn’t a bubble” narrative? it was the bubble in the house, but the house didn’t get built.

Not_FinancialAdvice

There's some great opportunities in MBS mezz tranches!

Delicious_Put_5857

MBS: we've lost an airplane, im resigning from my post as god emperor trillionaire of the kingdom of saud

Dude_HaHa

There's no narrator. MBS might be lucky if he is lucky to get himself and his inbred family out with a few suitcases full of clothes and some food.

Dude_HaHa

Thanks MBS, you must flee arabia with your inbred family.

Dude_HaHa

Once MBS and his force to flee Saudi Arabia, get their ports liquidated (in index and megacap stocks), which results in a major market cash, bears' puts will print. We will then do passport bro'ing in Arabia (there will be no 'Saudi', LMAO 🤌). Just sand, camels and hoes under the desert night skies. We'll hire the lady fat fuckers (their 'men') as camel drivers, while their hoes will say sweet nothings in our ears (I don't speak arabic). 🥰

Dude_HaHa

Would be cool to see MBS and his inbred family flee Saudi Arabia and all the oil get obliterated. Back to sand and camels. Very demure. That would crash the market as well, which is a net positive in my book. These guys hold a lot of stock in the AI space so that will also break the legs of the "AI revolution"

cute_polarbear

yeah...just worried if / when the hammer drops on AI, likely goes my 401k. I still remember the impact from 2008 MBS crisis...

yourgirl696969

I didn’t call them goat fuckers lol Saudis have one of the most modern militaries in the world and are getting wrecked by an Iranian proxy in fucking Yemen. It’s actually insane how incompetent they are. MBS is completely retarded for getting into this

Provolone-Jones

The Houthis could livestream them capturing MBS and bulldozing the EW pipeline, and the financial news aggregator accounts would report oil is flowing normally.

Full_Pear449

Just a touch of history: traded on a Primary Dealeras prop desk for 25+ yrs , retired in 2011. We were the Risk/ARB desk , basically if we could justify the trade we did it, Balance Sheet restrictions were open ended. Transportation capacity is probably the longer term issue as is the Straits being closed, rerouted tankers , and just not havinf more tankers parked in the parking lot ready to go. In 2008 oil started out at $100, went to $140's in july and ended the year at $35+. That price was basicallym driven by lack of demand and the coming MBS Crisis. I do have the OIL long trade & short 10's on. The correlation coeficient for rising oil and rising 10's rate is .94

yourgirl696969

MBS is losing a decade long war to dudes in sandals lmao

Disastrous_Pay3314

Saudis fixed the drone attacked east west pipeline. 3.5 million barrels of oil are pumped through the pipe every day. At $100/barrel, that's $350 million every day. $3.5 billion every 10 days. MBS is smiling.

BigHomie_

These are mortgage REITs. Not your traditional ones. They are not in the property owning/ rental business. They own mortgage backed securities through leverage. Their business model is borrow short term (repo) and lend long term (own MBS and loans). The spread between the two is how they make their money. Their risk is if short term rates go up but back end rates stay flat (less spread between the two). Or if MBS and loans sell off due to higher rates and their mark to market position drops (as well as their NAV)

Mustatan

The Fed eventually put in smarter policy but they also messed things up with the combo of QE and MBS buy's and then the ZIRP when inflation was gearing up, even Powell admitted they messed up badly by thinking it transitory when it clearly wasn't, and never should of done QE and MBS buys. That's why they course corrected and they did put in much smarter policy then. Biden was also slow at first to respond but he did also do things like help break up some of the big monopolistic cartels and claw back some of the PPP waste and fraud, just apparently not enough and made some of his own mistakes with tariffs like with EV's. But his policy still a lot better than Trump's and Trump's Covid PPP mess and all the fraud was a big source of the inflation from the pandemic.

A_Credo

Hey fucking idiot. See I can do this too. Who gives a shit who your family member is. Pulte is a puppet for Trump and Bessent. He does make a decision without their say-so. They are having Fannie and Freddie buy MBS, push the spread down. If YOU (and not your daughter) took finance 101, you would know that. But hey, keep being an idiot and ass. Maybe someone will believe you are smart.

Full_Pear449

Hey Genius , Pulte is not Treasury or Fed spokesperson, And By the way that family member is my daughter who this week was on a Nationally Televised Financial Network show talking about this exact topic. And, if you real are a Risk Analyst and not just some spread sheet PYTHON extrapolater you probaly should hae watched her and what she said as to MBS spreds through the stack, ARM generation and trading, how the rise in rates affects CMO'S and their trading & issuance and lastly defaults and that effect/affect on credit scores

Full_Pear449

That is unequivocally not true. How I know this is that a Family Member of mine is US Head of U.S. FICC Trading, for a Primary Dealer, and that person saud NO. Actually , she sent me the POICY statement sent to all Primary Dealers who traded MBS with the Fed. As of the October 2025 meeting, the Fed has announced an end to QT—a policy stance of reducing the size of its balance sheet by allowing bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. Also, I too worked /traded for a Primary dealer before, during and after the MBS Crisis and the Manipulation as you put it back then was and is purely a cost basis for the generation of martgages. AND, back in those days rates were based off the LONG BOND. Then in the late 80's early 90's when CMO's came into being the Structures realized what the actual duration of Mortgages were. Back then I beleive it was 13yrs on a 30yr mortgage

A_Credo

What you need to understand is the spread is actually being compressed right now because Trump/Bessent pushed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase MBS. Without that market manipulation, the spread would be close 300bps instead of the 225bps it is right now.

NotRobotNFL

I think the answer is our very smart leader didn’t agree to help MBS fight…I think that signaled we will not escalate

MyStoopidStuff

I'd like to see the source for this. The only thing I could find was that they are reinvesting funds recovered from MBS principal payments into t-bills, which has been policy for a while. It's not money printing.

Upset-Motor-2602

MBS can get fucked...imagine if he gets the Kashogi treatment by the Houthis?

niaqr

The conversation probably went like "MBS, bubbi, I can't keep saving your ass every single time you're in hot water. MAYBE if adnan kashoggi or whatever his name was spent more on missiles instead all those yachts and penthouses of his, you wouldn't be in this mess in the first place! Maybe I can cut you a good deal on some jets would you like that?"

tropicalia84

You really think the US is going to let MBS get rekt by some sandals and RPGs? Crude $120 end of week

jraiv420

MBS and Saudis are long

ArcDogRob

Start of the fall for House of Saud and MBS.

Provolone-Jones

If you asked MBS if he’d stick his dick in a buzzsaw to be able go back in time and not bomb that Houthi airport, I’m 95% sure he’d take that deal.

sorrow_anthropology

Kushner and MBS are on it!

IDFStrongestSoldier

>Saudi Crown Prince MBS has indirectly approached Israel via @CENTCOM requesting intelligence and operational assistance against the Houthis, diplomatic sources reveal Somehow Israel always comes out on top lmao

isTradingintheZone

you need institutional money to do big short shit. you didnt pay attention to the movie, watch it on adderall. Michael bury was wrong for a long time and kept paying for being wrong and if the FED decided to buy MBS sooner he would have been fucked.

stickman07738

If you believe he will not listen to MBS and his DOW, I got a bridge for sale.

TheLastGoodRiot

That's the market believing that in a week or so MBS will beg the Houthis for a toll. Of course, all of that is possible due to the very real discussion between MBS and Jeff BFF.

PositiveUse

Anyone knows if the elite in SA are scheming the fall of MBS? I mean that guy literally failed to secure the most important industry of the country…

spendology

Oh! We still have dark money. Private credit, CDOs, CDS, MBO, MBS, BS...

Autogreens

Not divesting, but rebalacing some of their treasuries into MBS

MajorGeneralMaryJane

It’s a correlation, not a causal relationship with 10yr yields. Mortgage rates are tied to MBS prices.

movdqa

Probably part of the pressure on Treasuries. One of the European sovereign wealth funds is moving about $80 billion from Treasuries to MBS as they offer higher yields.

Full_Pear449

We were one of the Investmant Banks Depicted in "THe Big Short." A more intersting and much more Technically POINTENT was "Margin Call"*,* they use a fictional setting to capture the generalized panic, MATHematical reality of the situation and moral ambiguity of that exact night. The Risk Management Scene in this movie is REAL. Reality was that ARM Mortgages were all the rage with little to no regard for the reality of a rising interst environment. Adjustable-rate mortgages peaked in popularity around 2005, accounting for roughly 36% to 45% of all U.S. mortgage originations before fueling the subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent foreclosure wave. Second catch was the very popular variant where borrowers could choose monthly payment types, including a "minimum payment" that was less than the interest accrued. This caused negative amortization—meaning the unpaid interest was added to the principal balance, increasing the total debt over time. Popular because home valuations were rising very rapidly and you would take this type of mortgae and resell your house before the first Rate Adjustment. Then we had this line of BS: Lenders widely offered "no-doc" or "low-doc" loans (stating income without verifying it), often called liar loans, combined with lax credit score and down payment requirements. So you really were not making 100K , you just told them you were and no one ever checked. Those loans were very popular with customers without a W-2 5 year history. Countrywide ( big ARM issuer) received preferential treatment and carved out highly specialized, "sweetheart" arrangements. Later during further congressional investigation it was revealed that this "special treatment" was bidirectional, forming a complex web of mutual benefits that ultimately contributed to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis The ML short was strictly based on their purchase of the subprime mortgage lender First Franklin Financial from National City Corp. for $1.3 billion. The purchase brought massive exposure to toxic mortgage assets, contributing heavily to Merrill Lynch's multi-billion dollar write-downs during the 2008 financial crisis. Simple to connect all the potential dangerous DOTS. Washington Mutual bought this subprime lender in 1999, which pulled the bank deep into high-risk mortgages.They were also issuing the very popular and in massive amounts of adjustable-rate mortgages with payments so low that the total debt increased every month. AIG was easy, their London-based unit sold insurance contracts called CDS on collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which contained bundled subprime mortgages. AND, they owned a subprime mortgage lender called Wilmington Finance, which faced regulatory penalties in 2007 for ignoring borrower creditworthiness and charging high fees. Shorting LEHMAN , BEAR, were really easy because the entire STREET knew their exposure both in MBS TBA's , MBS pools, RMBS and CMBS and they tooooooooo LEHMAN acquired major subprime and Alt-A mortgage lenders Aurora Loan and BNC Mort. and by 2006 were collectively issuing $50bln MONTHLY in loans by mid [2006.In](http://2006.In) the CMO arena they had created many tranches using sub-prime collateral which will shortly stop pay P&I on those loans, hence LEH was not paying out that return to Customers who owned those bonds, DEFAULT was IMMENENT. Ans your carrying all the other pieces of crap you had created. Overnight borrowing cost were get real by now. One month , 2 BIG ASS chalk boards , thousands of pieces of colored chalk , curtains covering up everything, meetings well into the following mornings , many a day wore the same clothes from the day before, LOTS and LOTS of spray deodorant. We had a VERY large Balance Sheet once presented to the Firm, very little variance on return, could not lose anymore than 10%, and they monitored it hourly (LIVE P&L) , needed a Repo Facility that was not ours so no one knew anything and that facility could take on BILLIONS in Repo. OH, no hedge because when your short any upward movement means you have made a serious miscalculation. All in is exactly that ALL IN , no hedging your bets

Full_Pear449

Traded on a PROP DESK - RISK/ARB---we also had a FICC desk, Principal Strategies, Global Macro X FICC, A seperate Cross Currencies,and 3 other Desk were essentially HFT desk, Two desk were combined and joined our Asset Management side. The difference between today's Prop desk is that today's are Girly Versions of a Prop. We were not restricted to only day trading like today and we were not retricted to equities. We traded what ever we wanted. The really cool part was that we were in a glass enclosed room, seperate security cards and entrance, on the 4th floor of our building and the totality of all the desk was a CITY BLOCK The execution of the PROP Desk was after the Volker rule went into affect. It was designed to strip all Prop Desk from firms in 2010 but was finally accomplished by the end of 2013. The general purpose was to have every trading desk a part of the Firms RWA calculation. No longer can you have an OFF balance Sheet Desk, or any exposure like CMO Tranches you did not sell just sitting on a Blotter and not counted as a risk. This all came about when Basel 1 and Basel 2 came into affect and you needed, most of the time, to count them as a Risk to Capital and not just OH BY THE WAY WE ALSO OWN THIS.  IN 2008 we were significantly short ML< SLH< AIG< NATWEST, WASHINGTON MUTUAL, MBS INDEX, COUNTRYWIDE , and long as possible CDS. While we were long CDS the regular firm was selling them to the Street on a BIG SCALE. Since we could not deal directly with the our Firm we were buying them from a 3rd party. We were trading the firms money not customer , client money so there we were not guided by any SEC or FINRA regulations. I was short 10's and 2yr Treasuries on a GRAND SCALE, long MBS pools that were made before 1999, short anything that had Adjustable Rate Mortgages associacted , indexed or was in the security. Generally speaking ,on the firms books, you were expected to be hedged against your position. NOT us , we went unhedged which at times was dangerous. It was fun, educational,tense,required constant attention, and was usually on the desk from 6am to 9-10pm at night. Exepting FRIDAY's , our desk had a reasonably strict rule on FRDIAY -EVERYONE imcluding OPs, trading, and trade support , or anyone associated with the desk be gone by 7PM. Saturday was an all hands gone bu noon and NO SUNDAY. PERIOD. You should look at the pod cast from-- David Weisburd -E189- Inside Goldman Sachs Desk: Lessons from a TOP Trader. We extensively used WACC modifiedModels , way way to our advantage. We had our very own IBM i system that ran continuously variantions on a theme for any and every security even remotely associate with MBS

bshaman1993

Nothing burger. The guy just wants relaxed lending standards. Just ask yourself what is the long term implication. Investors still want fico scores for their MBS investments

VegaGT-VZ

Overnight rate cuts dont move the needle. Shit like buying back bonds and MBS does, but the level of debt we are at blunts that effect. Fed/Treasury could move the needle when debt was like $6T. Now it's $40T, they cannot print or buy their way out of the mess we got into. Its really simple supply and demand, there is way too much supply of federal debt for the markets to absorb so they are charging a premium. Agreed that a balanced budget at the minimum and a federal property tax (excluding necessities like primary residence and cars below certain value) is prob the best way to pay it, since truthfully the deficit has mainly served to inflate asset values through extremely preferential taxation. It is really crazy that someone who scrapes some pennies together to buy a house w/after tax money then has to pay annual taxes on it, but someone else can have compounding equities and only pay taxes on them once. I think part of why the stock market doesnt make sense anymore is because the system is so blatantly rigged around it. They are heavily favored tax wise, they are the primary wealth vehicle for the ultra rich, people go to Congress just for the inside trading. Our deficits are a direct cost of that favor. Worst part is it would have been pretty simple to fix..... something like a progressively scaling wealth tax with an effective 2-3% rate would have kept the deficit in check w/o other changes. We are morons

ALth0r

We have the best oil, the greatest oil. Even MBS come see me and ask: "how great is your oil ?" I tell him. It's the most expensive oil in the world, cuz everybody wants it.

Garbage-Disposal-938

Ok, great and fair question. Short answer: I don't know. But when important large entities need to be bailed out -- they *are.* I believe there will be some sort of special Treasury/Fed/Wall Street operation to provide liquidity. (Wall Street and intelligence agencies have a long history of cooperation/collaboration.) These folks have an infinite money printer. In the 2008 GFC, the big banks were too big to fail, so they were supported. Goldman Sachs (and other investment banks I think) had offloaded their exposure to MBS credit default swaps to AIG. AIG got into hot water, but its obligations were eventually taken care of by the government, the ultimate magical backstop. In my view, OpenAI and Anthropic seem to be somehow anointed and protected by ~~God~~ the deep state. And I believe that for the reason you stated: It makes no fucking sense. They shouldn't have gotten this far. And we can all see the access which Scam Altman and Dario Amodei seem to have to the highest levels of power in this country. Why is that? And again, as you mention, because our government believes there's some sort of AI arms race occurring, a race which we MUST WIN (tho we probably don't and can't and it doesn't even matter), they'll pull all kinds of bullshit tricks to keep these two AI entities alive in one form or another. They'll cover for their shenanigans by saying *it's a matter of* *national security.* And OpenAI and Anthropic have huge market share. They are key players in controlling what the US and even global population *believe is true.* Think about how valuable that is to government of both parties! Government is not gonna let these two entities die. They're far too useful! Government/Deepstate will make the players whole on their investments. Furthermore, government can use these two as leverage against the other two monsters they created a generation ago: Google and Meta. Well, that's my paranoid conspiracy theory view of this matter. I wish I had a good answer to your question. I hope I'm wrong about all of it. But I have a hard time looking at these two companies through the lens of pure capitalism. Maybe you can talk me out of it. It would probably do me good. I'm too conspiracy minded.

the_flynn

FYI, The Fed already started reserve-management purchases in January 2026. Nearly $160B of reserve-management Treasury bill purchases have occurred by the end of July. That excludes the nearly $90B MBS principal reinvestments into bills…

Agitated_Trash203

To be fair those bank failures were an isolated incident and would have remained as such even if the fed didn’t step in and uncap the deposit insurance limit. Those banks (and SVB specifically) had such huge coffers with the “everything rally” of 2020-2021 they put way too money into fixed interest investments like treasuries or MBS. Rates got hiked because inflation become a runaway train which meant they were sitting on huge unrealized losses as the value of those treasuries and MBS plummeted. Rate hikes were probably the contributing factor that caused the bear market in 2022, which caused funding to dry up so all the startups (of which was the vast majority of their clients, also very risky) ran to their deposits in the bank to fund operations but they were sitting on these huge unrealized losses and they couldn’t pay out. This wasn’t happening to big banks, it was isolated to that very specific type of bank who primarily had VC’s and start-ups as their clients.

DieSchungel1234

Hey, there's a bubble. Trust me. Call Vennett. Buy 50 million in swaps on the MBS

Ruberis

The only way to find out is to put shares on the market. It’s like when the banks marked their MBS positions favorably, but once they tried to sell, their positions were worth a lot less. Without price discovery, no one knows.

elpresidentedeljunta

It´s not like he didn´t take a temporary hit with the MBS bet.

dataCollector42069

MSTR and btc will be the MBS of this generation

majdidisnsn

signals are fake- too fast/efficent in the uhh- burry was only okay for the events because of the MBS data he was given by a corporate laywer lol- old friends sharing little secrets- look at sol invictus.

LarryStink

2008 MBS 🤝 2026 CBS (compute backed securities) 

Ill-Construction-209

Wallstreet wizardry. CDO's and MBS's for semiconductors. What could go wrong?

Samjabr

Did bro really just analogize this to MBS and the next "financial engineering" What a fking donkey.

elpresidentedeljunta

JPM set their price target at 240. This probably explains the bump. It also tingles my bubble sense. When the analysts of big banks and rating agencies produce content that contains more bs than a 2007 MBS, then we´re not good.

elpresidentedeljunta

Burries Hedge Funds made 242% in five years and 490% after the MBS bubble. At that point Burry personally had made $100 million or 2.5x what he would have made if he just chilled in the S&P not until 2008, but until today, which is the original thesis here. If I ignored your overall results, looked only at a period of my chosing in order to make you look bad, I could probably easily prove you are the worst trader in the world.

JackPAnderson

Michael Burry is my favorite Mr. False Positive. He got the CDO/MBS situation right, sure. I'll give him that. But he's predicted like 117 crashes since. And as you say, he'll eventually call one, but in the meantime, it's all entertainment.

LockApprehensive2227

Seems like they been left with no choice since MBS gave trump that airplane and supports his attacks on Iran including a strategic partnership with the US

VirtuaFighter6

MBS told him to stop and now he’s scrambling. The US has two daddy’s; Bibbi and MBS.

CaptainCheckmate

Iran was pointing missiles at saudi's oil facilities and MBS called trump begging him to stop

evgis

IMO Iranian threats to destroy Gulf oil industry caused MBS to call Trump and threaten him to dump USD and stop recycling of oil revenue into USA. Of course Trump could have been only bluffing all along and had to fold when Iran called his bluff.

staythewaters

If Iran is "sent back to the stone age," then the rest of the oil and gas dependent world will be dragged to the same place. MBS realizes this which is probably why he begged Trump to hold off.

WhatRUsernamesUsed4

I'm sure MBS begged him not to. Iran isn't agreeing to shit, they're running the show. They'll send some missiles to more bases, we'll call it a surprise attack as if they are only supposed to be retaliatory in an existential threat, and war will be back on Friday at 4:00 EST. Enjoy another kangaroo week with a 5m barrel SPR drawdown and a new high on the 30Y. Let's hope Japan keeps it together

clubdirthill

Thank you for saving my port MBS! 🙏

Sick0h

MBS finally just like nah fuck it I’ll just pay em idgaf I’m down to buying 60 Bentleys a day, a man simply live in this kinda poverty 

Onnimation

MBS raises concerns over 🍑's plans for massive Iran strikes 😂 Targets Iran just mentioned and then MBS releases his concerns, who didn't see this coming fr? Common... > **1. Ghawar Oil Field, Saudi Arabia, backbone of Saudi production, disruption puts 5%+ of world oil supply at risk** > **2. Abqaiq + Khurais, Saudi Arabia, 7M+ bpd throughput, world's largest oil stabilization plant** > **3. Ruways Refinery + Zakum Oil Field, UAE, 2nd largest offshore oil field, 1M+ bpd** > **4. North Ghadir Gas Field + Ras Laffan LNG, Qatar, world's largest gas field with 25% of proven reserves, 20% of global LNG trade** > **5. Burgan Oil Field, Kuwait, 67B barrel reserves, 2M bpd** > **6. Sitrah Refinery + Al-Mihaj, Bahrain** > **7. Leviathan + Tamar Gas Fields, Israel, Israel's largest + 2nd largest gas fields**

Tay_Tay86

axios reporting that MBS told him to stand down

Full_Pear449

Each one of our PROP DESK were part of a different entity's. We were housed in Principal Strategies,,,,Risk Arbitrage and Global Macro. We were prohibited from trading with the Main Firm, so neither had exposure to each other. That spinoff issue has been going for years. If you look at where Investment Bank Divisions are domiciled you will find some strange places . For the longest time Citibank's Credit card Division was housed in South Dakota, simplt becasue they had no Usury Laws so Interest Rates could be as high as they wanted. I was friends with a Trader from First Chicago Bank, she Traded their Securitized Products ( CMO's, MBS, Credit card deals , car loans) and they were domiciled in Puerto Rico just as a Mailing Address.

Full_Pear449

I Traded on a Fixed Income Prop Desk within shouting distance to the Risk/Arb Desk , for a Firm that basically avoided most of this mess, Primary Dealer. What you don't know is the Lehman had an heavy exposure to CMBS where Valuations are Suspect. They moved their ALT-A loan into RMBS, again different valuations from reality. Much of this MBS portfolio fell under "Level III" accounting. This meant the assets were highly illiquid, had no active market pricing, and their value was calculated using Lehman's internal models, which severely overstated their worth as the housing market collapsed. The other neat trick was the use of REPO 105 and Repo 108. Repo 108- temporarily removing assets from the balance sheet by over-collateralizing transactions at 108% to record them as sales rather than loans. REPO 105- Reclassify short-term loans as sales. It involved moving about $50 billion of assets off the balance sheet temporarily to hide debt and make the firm look healthier right before reporting dates. One other interesting segment of Lehamn was that their Distressed Debt/Convertible desk had a sheet of about $600mm and made $2BLN in 2007. Basically on CDS, shorting their own and others heavy in the MBS market DEBT.

Commercial_DataFarm

Youre onto something real but slightly miscalibrated on which yield matters. The Fed sets the overnight rate; the 30Y reflects the markets guess at the average path of short rates over 30 years plus term premium. So the September hike matters mostly as a signal about that path, not mechanically a single 25bp at the front does almost nothing to a 30Y at 5.2%. Whats actually driving the long end is term premium coming back: heavy Treasury supply, QT, less price insensitive foreign/central bank demand, and deficit concern. That’s the thing to watch, not the dot plot. Where Id push back: most real economy borrowing costs don’t key off the 30Y. Mortgages track the 10Y plus the MBS spread. Corporate refinancing clusters in the 5 to 10Y belly. The 30Y mostly matters for genuinely long duration liabilities pensions, life insurers, ultra long corporate/muni issuance. So for mortgages, REITs, indebted companies, you want to watch the 10Y and the belly more than the long bond. If long rates broadly stay 5%+ for another year, hardest hit are the long duration and refiwall names: CRE and the REITs with near-term maturities and compressed cap rates, unprofitable long-duration growth (it’s a DCF denominator problem), and leveraged/junk credit rolling into much higher coupons. On banks youre right to be unsure, because it cuts both ways. A bear steepener helps NIM on new loans, but the same move marks down their AOCI/HTM bond books (the SVB problem), deposit betas climb as they compete for funding, and credit on weaker borrowers/CRE deteriorates. Money center banks weather it; smaller regionals with CRE concentration and underwater securities are where the stress shows up. Short version: it’s less “does the hike matter” and more “why is term premium back” and the 10Y/belly plus credit spreads are cleaner tells than the 30Y alone.

Spezalt4

That’s entirely different. The MBS disaster of 2008 required regulation because banking retards were gambling with OTHER PEOPLE’s money. That needs regulation Some Korea bro leveraging to the tits with his own money does not require regulation. It’s his money and his choice to risk it

elpresidentedeljunta

Oh, it absolutely is, as actual gambling laws will tell you. And this is, because, as we see now in South Korea and have seen many times over hundreds of years, in the end it is about the question if something has the potential to collapse the fabrique of society. That´s why "anti gambling laws" (not actual ones, this time I am paraphrasing) were set up after the MBS disaster in 2008.

Minimum_Thought_5361

Rewind to 2007 and say the same things about the big banks and MBS.  What you’re describing is an appeal to authority fallacy, as if corporate history isn’t full of misallocated spending and capex blunders.

TheEagleDied

Goodbye MBS. He decided to make a deal with the devil.

TheEagleDied

MBS only makes bad decisions.

greendildouptheass

Until it doesn't.  What you are doing mounts to high frequency trading with diminishing alpha. But all of this comes crashing down when whales manipulate or move markets in unexpected direction. When that happens your trades get margin called or expires worthless.  Trust me on this, everyone who though dot com was a huge bubble was right, MBS is trash was right, but they lost huge money if they thought it would crash, because market shot up for next 2 years. 

Few_Night7735

If you’re going the bond route…yes to Munis, treasuries and cash equivalents, would also include some baby bonds (aka 25 par bonds) preferreds, investment grade CLO and corporates for some yield above treasuries, MBS, mortgage REITs, CLO funds, maybe also some div Stocks or ETFs that provide some yield.

k3t4mine

MoM Core CPI average over the last 3 months is 0.2%. Pretty average. Everyone freaked out at 0.4% in April, and they're un-freaking out now over 0%. Nothing to see here, doesn't change the fact they've missed their target to the upside for 5 years. Warsh should hike 100bps and sell $2B in MBS next meeting.

DistributionBroad173

The AI bubble burst will be like the dotcom bubble of 2002. The 2008 bubble was worse, that was real estate and mortgage backed securities, CDO, Collateralized Debt Obligations. The financial wizards on Wall Street sold them all over the world and crushed the economies of Iceland and Ireland. People were buying real estate with Adjustable Rate Mortgages, in the hopes rates would come down. oopsie, the ARMs reset to new higher mortgage payments and people could not afford them. default default default default default. MBS and CDO all of a sudden became almost worthless. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns went bye bye. AIG insurance company took a MAJOR hit. AIG was deemed to big to fail, but AIG tried. I am planning on exiting my 401k and IRA equity mutual funds by October/November/December 2028. I think the next crash is in 2029. I will ride my dividend stocks as they will pay me while I wait it out.

YouKnown999

Sure but the US had Enron, MBS, etc. Everyone dogs China for being uninvestible, but the US isn’t a paragon of manipulation free markets. I think it’s okay to have healthy skepticism, especially when there’s a finger on the scales daily via tweets.

iSoLost

If MBS is a sinking ship, the whole economy is fuked. Yeah 08 economy fuked up so bad

fire_alarmist

Redditards once again not understanding the underlying issues. The bipartisan housing bill about corporations not being able to own more than 350 properties is the issue here. We are in an MBS 2008 situation again but this time they just bought the houses to use as collateral for risky shit instead of packaging the mortgages. They made the housing market illiquid and are using every data manipulation trick to try to tap into that same "housing never goes down" mindset that caused 2008. History repeating and whatnot, thats whats spooking the markets. If that bill stated they had to actively sell any properties over 350 we would already be down to SPY 300 but they just cant buy more.

Millenial_Xer

MBS is an investor in his fund, I think. But agreed, maybe the most openly corrupt presidency in history. It’s spectacle now.