MBS

DistributionBroad173

The AI bubble burst will be like the dotcom bubble of 2002. The 2008 bubble was worse, that was real estate and mortgage backed securities, CDO, Collateralized Debt Obligations. The financial wizards on Wall Street sold them all over the world and crushed the economies of Iceland and Ireland. People were buying real estate with Adjustable Rate Mortgages, in the hopes rates would come down. oopsie, the ARMs reset to new higher mortgage payments and people could not afford them. default default default default default. MBS and CDO all of a sudden became almost worthless. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns went bye bye. AIG insurance company took a MAJOR hit. AIG was deemed to big to fail, but AIG tried. I am planning on exiting my 401k and IRA equity mutual funds by October/November/December 2028. I think the next crash is in 2029. I will ride my dividend stocks as they will pay me while I wait it out.

YouKnown999

Sure but the US had Enron, MBS, etc. Everyone dogs China for being uninvestible, but the US isn’t a paragon of manipulation free markets. I think it’s okay to have healthy skepticism, especially when there’s a finger on the scales daily via tweets.

iSoLost

If MBS is a sinking ship, the whole economy is fuked. Yeah 08 economy fuked up so bad

fire_alarmist

Redditards once again not understanding the underlying issues. The bipartisan housing bill about corporations not being able to own more than 350 properties is the issue here. We are in an MBS 2008 situation again but this time they just bought the houses to use as collateral for risky shit instead of packaging the mortgages. They made the housing market illiquid and are using every data manipulation trick to try to tap into that same "housing never goes down" mindset that caused 2008. History repeating and whatnot, thats whats spooking the markets. If that bill stated they had to actively sell any properties over 350 we would already be down to SPY 300 but they just cant buy more.

Millenial_Xer

MBS is an investor in his fund, I think. But agreed, maybe the most openly corrupt presidency in history. It’s spectacle now.

git0ffmylawnm8

Call Vennett. Buy 50 million in swaps on the MBS

Civil-Rip1302

Did as you asked and put it in AI. This is the reply: That post is a classic "doomer" financial manifesto—the kind you find late at night on Reddit or X. It takes very real, legitimate economic anxieties and cranks them up to an apocalyptic 11, mixed with a healthy dose of cynicism and aggressive formatting. Let's break down what the user actually got right, where they are blowing things out of proportion, and what the real risks look like. # 1. What the Post Gets Right (The Real Risks) The author isn't entirely pulling this out of thin air. The private credit market *has* exploded, and regulators are genuinely keeping a close eye on it. * **The Scale of Private Credit:** It is true that private credit has grown massively to over $2 trillion. Because it happens outside traditional banks, it is often referred to as "shadow banking." * **The Maturity Wall:** A massive amount of corporate debt was taken out in the ultra-low interest rate environment of 2020–2022. Refinancing that debt at today's much higher rates is a massive hurdle for highly leveraged companies. * **Payment-in-Kind (PIK) & "Kicking the Can":** This is a very real trend. When a borrower struggles to pay interest, some lenders allow them to pay with *more debt* (PIK) instead of cash. Delayed-Draw Term Loans (DDTLs) are also being used in creative ways that mask underlying stress. * **Liquidity Mismatches:** Investing in illiquid, 7-year corporate loans while promising investors they can cash out quarterly is a fundamental structural flaw. We have already seen major funds (like Blackstone's BREIT in the real estate sector previously, and others in private credit) have to limit or "gate" withdrawals to prevent a run on the fund. # 2. Where the Post Gets It Wrong (The Over-Hyperbole) While the ingredients for a corporate debt headache are there, comparing this directly to a **"2008 systemic collapse worse than subprime"** fundamentally misunderstands how the 2008 crash happened. * **No "Systemic" Doom-Loop:** In 2008, toxic subprime mortgages were heavily held on the balance sheets of the world's largest commercial banks (Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Citigroup). When they failed, the global banking system froze. Private credit, by definition, is held by *private funds* (institutional investors, wealthy individuals, pension funds). If a private credit fund goes under, the investors lose money, but it doesn't cause a systemic run on the commercial banks that hold your checking account. * **Level 3 Assets Aren't a Con:** "Mark-to-model" sounds scary, but it’s standard practice for illiquid assets that don't trade on an open exchange every day. It doesn't mean analysts are just making up numbers blindly; these models are heavily audited by major accounting firms, even if they are lagging indicators. * **Diversification vs. Subprime:** The post compares Private Credit CLOs to 2008 Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). However, subprime mortgages failed simultaneously because they were all tied to the exact same variable: US housing prices. Private credit is spread across software companies, healthcare, manufacturing, and infrastructure. They don't all fail for the same exact reason at the same exact time. * **The Federal Reserve Hyperbole:** The author claims the Fed "cancelled rate cuts" and is planning "rate hikes for the end of the year." While rate cuts have been delayed or scaled back due to sticky inflation, the Fed is not aggressively charting a course for major new rate hikes unless inflation completely spirals out of control. # 3. How Fucked is Retail? The author claims retail investors will "hold the bags." The truth is, everyday retail investors rarely have direct exposure to private credit because these funds usually require you to be an "accredited investor" (net worth over $1M). However, retail *does* have indirect exposure through: 1. **Pension Funds & Insurance Companies:** If you have a corporate pension or a life insurance policy, those institutions may have a small percentage of their capital allocated to private credit to chase higher yields. 2. **BDCs (Business Development Companies):** These are publicly traded vehicles that allow retail to buy into private debt. If the market turns, BDC stock prices will tank. # The Verdict: Dog Shit wrapped in Cat Shit? Not quite. It's more like **highly spiced corporate debt wrapped in high-yield risk**. We are likely looking at a **slow-burning corporate default cycle** rather than a sudden, explosive 2008-style collapse. Weak, unprofitable companies (especially tech and SaaS startups that relied on free money) will indeed go bankrupt, and some private credit funds will post terrible returns or freeze withdrawals. It will be painful for the private equity firms and the institutional investors who over-leveraged themselves, but it is highly unlikely to break the global financial system. Do you have money tied up in BDCs or private market funds that made you come across this post?

Extension-Temporary4

This.  Before drawing comparisons to 2008 or sounding the alarm bells, it’s worth grounding this discussion in some basic numbers. The private credit market stood at ~ $3 trillion at the start of 2025 and the U.S. subprime mortgage market was estimated at $1.3 trillion as of March 2007 — but the broader mortgage market that became infected was far larger. The total U.S. mortgage market was estimated at $12 trillion, with approximately 6.4% of loans delinquent and 2.75% in foreclosure as of August 2008. U.S. bank loan losses alone were projected at approximately $1.1 trillion out of a total $1.6 trillion, with an additional $600–700 billion in mark-to-market writedowns on securities — amounting to ~ $1.8 trillion against a total bank capitalization of only $1.4 trillion. it’s a fundamentally different setup than what we see in private credit today. For private credit to be comparably catastrophic, you’d need near-total default across a market that is still a fraction of the size, and you’d need that contagion to spread through globally interconnected balance sheets. Neither condition exists. During the GFC, financial institutions around the globe had written down subprime-related securities by over $500 billion by August 2008 — and the transmission mechanism was the MBS/CDO structure that embedded those losses inside virtually every major bank and institutional investor on the planet. Private credit doesn’t work that way. Loans are bilateral, held on fund balance sheets, not sliced into opaque tranches and sold globally. There are also structural buffers that the GFC simply didn’t have. Private credit funds can restrict withdrawals, extend loan maturities, and work out troubled credits directly with borrowers. If a KKR or Ares fund hits serious stress, the question isn’t automatic contagion — it’s whether the fund manager’s broader platform is adequately capitalized and diversified enough to absorb it, take over underlying businesses, or sell assets in an orderly fashion. That’s a very different failure mode than a bank run on institutions holding billions in suddenly worthless MBS. Signs worth watching do exist — PIK interest (where borrowers defer cash payments by adding to principal) in direct lending averaged about 4.2% pre-pandemic, rose to 7.4% post-pandemic, and reached roughly 8.8% in Q3 2025, which bears monitoring. But stress indicators are a far cry from systemic crisis. The GFC was systemic because the losses were massive, hidden inside complex instruments, and distributed across every major financial institution in the world simultaneously. Private credit problems, if they materialize, are far more likely to be a painful but contained repricing event for a relatively small universe of specialty lenders and their LPs — not a replay of 2008.

BagHoldersOfAmerica

Chatgpt response: 1. Private credit grew from ~$500B to over $2T and may exceed $4T by 2030 Score: TRUE 2. Private credit relies heavily on Level 3 assets and mark-to-model valuations Score: MOSTLY TRUE 3. Large amounts of debt from 2021-2022 mature in 2027-2029 Score: TRUE 4. High rates and the "maturity wall" could cause defaults and fire sales Score: TRUE, though the GPU/software collateral claim is exaggerated 5. The Fed canceled rate cuts and expects rate hikes Score: FALSE 6. About 40% of borrowers have negative free cash flow Score: MOSTLY TRUE 7. Real default rates are 5-6% despite reported rates of 1.5-2% Score: PLAUSIBLE BUT UNCERTAIN 8. PIKs are being used to delay recognition of defaults Score: TRUE 9. PIK usage doubled and accounts for roughly half of hidden defaults Score: PARTLY TRUE, exact percentages uncertain 10. Synthetic PIKs were invented to hide PIK exposure Score: OVERSTATED 11. Delayed-draw term loans are used to disguise missed interest payments Score: PARTLY TRUE, but "invented for concealment" is exaggerated 12. Private credit CLOs are packaging risky loans much like MBS Score: MOSTLY TRUE 13. Nobody knows the quality of AAA private credit CLOs Score: EXAGGERATED 14. Pension funds and insurance companies are major buyers Score: TRUE 15. The SEC knows disaster is coming and is protecting big banks Score: SPECULATION 16. Liquidity mismatches could force withdrawal freezes Score: TRUE 17. Withdrawal restrictions and redemption limits have already appeared Score: TRUE ──────────────────────────────────── OVERALL THESIS: "Private credit contains real risks and could produce years of losses." Score: TRUE "This will be worse than 2008." Score: UNSUPPORTED "Retail investors will be left holding the bag." Score: MISLEADING "2027 onward will be a slow-motion collapse combining the dot-com crash and 2008 crisis." Score: SPECULATION Overall post: ≈70% fact, 20% exaggeration, 10% outright falsehood.

DimMak1

The pandemic was supposed to be the worst financial calamity in human history. It resulted in like 2 days of light stock market declines, then immediately was flipped around by ZIRP, QE infinity, money printing, massive increase in national debt, the PPP scam loan program for the Epstein wealth class, more massive Fed purchases of MBS to specifically boost boomer home prices and screw over young people, and trillions in subsidies for all large businesses. The stock market hasn’t stopped going up since.

Key_Raisin_5091

This post mixes some real risks, some accurate industry terminology, a few exaggerations, and several claims that are either unsupported or factually questionable. My assessment would be: **Core concern: plausible and worth paying attention to.** **Conclusion that "2008 but worse is inevitable": not supported by the evidence presented.** # What the post gets right # 1. Private credit has grown enormously Private credit has expanded from a niche market into a multi-trillion-dollar asset class over the last decade. That much is true. The growth creates several legitimate concerns: * Less transparency than public debt markets * Limited price discovery * Greater exposure to economic downturns * Potential liquidity mismatches between investors and underlying assets Regulators, the IMF, the Fed, and major banks have all discussed these risks. # 2. "Mark-to-model" valuation is a real issue Many private loans don't trade frequently. As a result: * Valuations often rely on internal models * Managers have significant discretion * Losses can appear later than they would in public markets This doesn't automatically mean fraud, but it does mean reported values may lag reality. One criticism of private credit today is that loan marks appear much smoother than comparable public-market loans. # 3. The maturity wall is real A large amount of debt issued during the low-rate period of 2020-2022 will need refinancing over the next several years. If rates remain elevated: * Interest costs increase * Refinancing becomes harder * Defaults rise This is not unique to private credit, but private credit borrowers tend to be more leveraged and less financially resilient. # 4. PIKs can hide stress Payment-in-Kind (PIK) structures allow interest to be added to principal rather than paid in cash. This can: * Prevent technical default * Delay recognition of problems * Make borrower health appear better than it is Investors generally view rising PIK usage as a sign of deteriorating credit quality. So the author's concern here is largely reasonable. # Where the post starts overstating things # "The real default rate is 5-6%" This is harder to support. Private credit default estimates vary widely depending on: * Definitions * Sample selection * Time period The post presents this figure as established fact when it is closer to an estimate used by some analysts. The confidence level implied is much higher than the available evidence. # "Synthetic PIKs were invented to hide defaults" This is partially misleading. Delayed-draw term loans (DDTLs) are legitimate financing structures used for many purposes. Could some lenders use them to effectively fund interest payments? Yes. Does that mean the entire structure exists primarily to hide defaults? No. The post takes a real concern and presents the most cynical interpretation as established fact. # "AAA CLOs are basically 2008 MBS again" This is one of the biggest leaps. There are similarities: * Pooling risky assets * Structured finance * Rating agencies involved But there are also major differences: 2008 mortgage securities: * Often backed by extremely poor underwriting * Highly interconnected with global banks * Massive embedded leverage Private credit CLOs: * Generally backed by corporate loans * Smaller market * Less interconnected with systemically important banks That doesn't make them safe. It does make "exactly like 2008" an oversimplification. # Questionable claim: "The Fed cancelled rate cuts and expects rate hikes" This statement sounds outdated or incorrect. The Fed can revise expectations, but the claim that it has "cancelled rate cuts" and is actively projecting end-of-year hikes would need verification against current Fed projections. This is one of several places where the post mixes fact with dramatic interpretation. # Biggest weakness in the argument The author assumes: > That connection is not proven. For a true 2008-style crisis you generally need: 1. Massive leverage 2. Interconnected institutions 3. Forced liquidations 4. Contagion across the banking system 5. Funding markets freezing The post spends most of its time proving that **private credit may have hidden losses**, which is not the same thing as proving **global financial collapse**. Those are very different claims. # What would a realistic bearish scenario look like? A more measured downside case would be: * Defaults rise through 2027-2029 * Refinancing becomes difficult * Private credit returns disappoint * Some funds gate withdrawals * Pension funds and insurance companies take losses * Valuations get marked down * Private equity exits become harder * Economic growth slows That's serious. But it's still not automatically "worse than 2008." # What would need to be true for the author's prediction to happen? Several things would have to occur simultaneously: * Recession * High interest rates persist * AI-related spending collapses * Private credit defaults spike into double digits * CLO structures fail to absorb losses * Banks are more exposed than currently believed * Liquidity freezes across multiple asset classes Possible? Yes. Probable? The post doesn't provide enough evidence to conclude that. # Bottom line The post identifies a **real area of financial risk**: * explosive private credit growth, * opaque valuations, * increasing PIK usage, * upcoming refinancing pressures, * and liquidity mismatches. Those concerns are taken seriously by regulators and institutional investors. Where it becomes less reliable is in the jump from: > to > The first statement is well-supported. The second is largely speculative and would require much stronger evidence than what's presented in the post.

TomSheman

Last I checked private credit exposure is nowhere near MBS exposure for these guys

Sufficient_Habit5091

Is that a change in MBS caps for the balance sheet? I thought those were fully rolling off before.

Icy_Debt_5213

He called apple early 2000. Shirted the dot com bubble had swaps created for MBS for 08 crisis, bought stocks at the bottom of the crash, called GameStop, shorted PLTR and Tesla at the peak. Calls in Meta at the bottom. UNH calls at the bottom. Yeah he is not 100% but dang thats more than twice and not a broken clock. I tend to trust him but not mimic him 100%

FNFactChecker

Well, the strait isn't a gate that can be opened and shut at will. I think the peace deal is strategically timed for a few reasons (in no particular order of importance): \- To keep the market pumping till July (seasonality) \- Gives Warsh fewer reasons to be hawkish in his first FOMC as Chair \- Keeps the Bond Vigilantes at bay...ish (both domestic and foreign) \- Soothes the MBS market, taking pressure off the cost of rates\* \- Allows for the "not-QE" to continue \- Slows down pressures on global inflation & foreign rate hikes, which stabilizes USD to a degree \- Currencies with a hawkish monetary policy backdrop will still stay strong, but a key global player coming in with a 50 bp hike would make DXY plunge Also worth noting that gold & silver ripped in the face of geopolitical "softening," indicating the stagflation scenario is very much alive. \*Mortgage rates don't rise or fall; it's the cost of acquiring a rate that changes. This is dictated by the MBS/mortgage bond market and investor/institutional appetite for these debt-based products.

x7_omega

RAM is conditional to funding, funding is debt, and that debt is all bad but everyone pretends it is not (for now) - very similar to MBS in 2005\~2006 before funds then banks started blowing up. As long as debt bagholders keep funding the AI capex, RAM remains expensive and RAM makers are rich and happy. The moment debt "cockroach" shows up in its true scale, expressed in CDS and interest spikes, meaning none of that debt will be paid off ever, all this AI happy talk and funding for it will die instantly. For the simple folk struggling with acronyms, imagine AI bros come out and say "we can't get further capex funding at double-digit interest, but keep the faith". That will be the moment when all the RAM makers will regret walking away from DDR4 and DDR5 market, but it will be too late as China already makes it.

rithrawr

Saudi Aramco cooks their book. When they wanted to IPO they got western company to do it, but those companies were saying they're not worth that much. So instead, MBS made his own stock exchange and IPO instead.

Xyrus2000

The math isn't mathing on the whole economy. The market is completely disconnected from reality, and has been for a while. This level of irrationality has happened many times. And hypothetically, one could make a considerable profit by going against that irrationality. The problem is, no one can predict when reality is going to crash the market People always say, "Well, if you're so sure the market is going to crash, why don't you short it?" The answer is that the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. The example I like to use is Michael Burray (who made billions on shorting the housing market). He actually started shorting the MBS market in 2005. It took almost three years for reality to hit the market, and even when things finally went in his favor, the blatant market manipulation by the market makers still nearly caused him to crash out. I'm not Burray, and I certainly don't have the funds he had at his disposal. Shorting an irrational market is financial suicide for anyone without really deep pockets.

Elegant-Speaker5825

It literally like a subprime MBS CDO

TimeToGloat

I feel at that point though wealth and power kind of becomes more abstract. I feel if you are that rich and can perpetually run a country you are inherently probably a trillionaire. Like if Musk and MBS got in like a hypothetical bidding war generally I feel MBS would win. Maybe the other top heads of the Saudi family as well. Their names might not directly be on the accounts but as long as they have power over them they might as well be.

CommissionerOfLunacy

Yeah, but there are thousands of them in that family. It probably (definitely) does control a trillion dollars combined, but no individual Saudi royal family member is worth a trillion dollars. The structure there doesn't mean MBS or whoever actually has all the money.

LIEUTENANT__CRUNCH

“There’s a bubble! Call Vennet and buy 50 million in swaps on the MBS!”

theranchcorporation

SpaceX at this point is the equivalent of a MBS full of Elon’s subprime businesses. Once the SpaceX business fails there’s nowhere else to stash the rot. Luckily him and all his investors will have cashed out while retail and the wider market holds the bag while the gov simultaneously bailed him out.

elpresidentedeljunta

I´ll hide this down here. The spaceX IPO and those following are basically shattering a myth. There are still people, who claim that the AI boom isn´t built on dreams, but earnings. Now between 3.5 and 4 trillion Dollar of market cap are entering the space on virtually no profit. And the valuations we see for existing companies are no longer based on their earnings, but on the bet of the earnings these unprofitable companies (maybe with an exception for Anthropic) will possibly potentially grow into. And there is another element hidden here. Up to now these companies could just say they needed another couple of dozen billions and investors would flock to them. If that had remained as easy as it was, then we would never see an IPO. Neither can they place reasonably priced bonds as the Mag7 do, or get capital from the banks at a great rate. In other words, these companies go public, because the first well of liquidity is running dry. And we have seen that already in first pullbacks from large commitments. And given the structure of SpaceX objectively you are investing in Elon Musk´s private equity, right when the Software bubble is bursting and hitting private credit and equity... These IPOs are structured to have the share price rise, don´t get me wrong, but they are meant to have the early investors reap now what the company is supposed to harvest in 10 years. And every new investor is buying pictures of tulips, which might come afterwards. This may not be the end of a bubble. But it is the start of the phase where risk and debt are being rolled over to the general public. And while it is true that the most money can be made in the final phases of an expanding bubble, do not forget that you want to cash out of the Dotcom bubble in time so that you can go big on the MBS bubble to fully make use of the potential and cash out before it bursts. As famously so many investors did in 2000 and 2008...

ExperienceFun1646

1) Yes. Let me simplify it, you can think of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) as option calls, Credit Default Swaps(CDS) as options puts for purposes of how they influenced pricing; Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) are like 10x leveraged MBS . So now with that picture, if MBS start tanking then the value of CDS go up. In fact, what the movie doesn’t show you is that these banks actually started realizing their risks, they were hella over leveraged. Meaning more insurance (CDS) existed than the underlying derivative they were insuring (MBS) AND they realized the housing market would probably crash because all it would take is 4% of defaults on payments to cause it. Just to give you a comparison, right now credit card debt in the U.S. is defaulted at 12-17%, why hasn’t there been massive news? Because of all the regulation we implemented on the finance sector after the 2008 crash. Anyways, during the final moments, many banks were actually trying to rig the pricing of MBS/CDS with credit agencies while trying to sell as many MBS and buy as many CDS as they could before everything went to shit. 2) I don’t have enough knowledge about this or 3) this.

musicandarts

These guys are idiots and sycophants with no integrity. None of their ideas are sound. Fortunately, they have already crashed into reality. Warsh wants to cut rates because he argues that AI would be so productive that it will counteract the inflationary forces. If anyone can explain how this works, please let me know. He also wants to reduce the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. In other words, he wants to dump all the assets that the Federal Reserve currently holds (treasuries and MBS) either drastically, or slowly upon maturation. Neither of these options are what the big 🥭 wants because these amount to quantitative tightening. "The Fed should instead focus on “protecting the dollar and restraining inflation,” Winfree wrote". Mr. Winfree, please let us know your strategies to protect the dollar and restrain inflation, if you also want a rate cut at the same time.

elpresidentedeljunta

I doubt that. I think, they will try to pump and pump and only when exit liquidity starts to dry up they will get out. It´s a pyramid scheme. And Tesla is proof, that those can run pretty high. Madoff would probably still be operating if it hadn´t been for the MBS crisis. But I don´t bleieve those "7 trillion" on the sideline are on the sideline either. They are exactly where their owners want them. And if those were hungry to chase momentum, they´d have driven Nvidia to 300 or something like that. They are by and large waiting for the day, when the music stops.

TonyzTone

What asset classes drilled to zero? Maybe a particular equity like pets.com or investment vehicle like call options September 2009 MBS. But to say an entire class— like stocks or MBS— goes to shit is something I can’t quite remember from history.

True_Grocery_3315

20 years ago would have been 2006, so not the ideal time to invest! 2009 at the bottom would have been better, or around 2002-4 after the dotcom crash but before the 2008 MBS crash.

RIP_Soulja_Slim

>Burry, Frontpoint, and Brownfield made their profits by selling their swaps as they thought there would be a chance that the people on the other side of the trade would be insolvent and not be able to pay. Is that a correct statement? A CDS is best thought of as an insurance product. You buy it, it raises in value depending on where the default rates go. The higher the rates, the higher the value of the contract. Basically an insurance against loss. Theoretically waiting would have resulted in a higher payout, but there was legit concern that said financial institutions would not be able to make those payouts, so most of them cashed in a bit earlier than they could have. Worth noting that the largest writer of CDS was AIG, so these fears weren't exactly unfounded. >What really happens when a private/non-agency MBS/CDO collapses and the market price goes to $0? This doesn't really happen, for the reasons you outlined. Even at it's peak MBS defaults were single digits. The issue is market value, in a panic environment these bonds that were trading at 100 were now selling for 90 cents or less on the dollar, many ended up being worth full value over time. But let's say your bank has threshold for a 5% variance in book, a 10% variance in a few weeks is astronomical volatility. That's what killed a lot of banks, book value losses creating insolvency from a loan to value standpoint. >At the end of the movie, Christian Bale's character said he kept 1 swap just to see if it would pay out. Does anyone know what happened? I don't, but given how much artistic license the movie took I wouldn't be shocked if that was entirely made up.

Constant_Tomorrow_69

Although it does do a good job of explaining what happened with the junk, The Big Short is only a narrow view into the overall fiasco since it triggered a global crisis (e.g., Iceland sent 25 bankers to jail as a result). And generally speaking, yes, I do agree with you that the vast majority of it was technically legal, which if you think about it is a pretty shitty way to operate a multi-trillion dollar market lol. After the fact, though, it was found out that the investment banks were telling investors that the MBS were safe while internal emails revealed traders call them junk/crap...that is securities fraud. Additionally, execs artificially inflated the values of failing subprime assets on their balance sheets to keep stock prices high and secure quarterly bonuses...more fraud. Then you've got the "liars loans" where lenders were falsifying lender income to push the mortgages through so that they could be bundled and sold...mortgage fraud. The problem is that the DOJ and Admin thought that if they went after and jailed the leadership of major financial institutions that it would trigger a whole other panic/crisis and opted to "move forward" and focus on recovery. Then there is the latest and most recent shit with the Epstein files, there was most definitely some insider information sharing on between some people. IMO, the deregulation should have never happened in the first place. There are several deregulation things that should have never happened like stock buybacks and CEO compensation...it's a perverse incentive program to fuck over normal every day Americans to maximize profits to secure big CEO payouts...it's why Cuckerberg only takes a $1 salary.

the_one_jt

Yeah basically this AI bet is too big and will absolutely wipe out some investors. Not everyone can win at this amount of debt. So they absolutely got together and figured out this scheme to move the losses to the passive investors. If this works and there is no real blowback (and none is predicted) then they can and will use this in the future. This is another loophole like the MBS and seriously undermines the integrity and ethics of passive funds. It opens up fraud.

Vlisa

Wdym the rating boards work with MBS sellers?!?

Antique_Hawk_7192

This time it's datacenters. All that debt going into them, when even a single one defaults, it's gonna make 08 look tame. 08 had something to bail out. Govt could deal with all those MBS/CDO, it could stop AIG from defaulting. What they gonna do this time? Shovel boatloads of cash into Nvidia for buying GPUs to rot in warehouses? AI bubble is Bank/VC/Private Credit/Private Equity funnelling money into OAI/Anthropic and their users, and datacenter builders(Coreweave, Oracle). There's nothing and no one to bail out in this mess.

Electronic-Cell-3404

You’re basically right. The movie dramatizes a lot for clarity. Burry absolutely did not invent CDSs, he mainly pioneered using them specifically against subprime MBS at that scale. And yes, the premiums were initially “cheap” relative to the actual risk because everyone believed AAA housing debt was ultra safe. The painful part wasn’t that the CDS itself was irrational, it was the carry cost and timing. He had to keep paying premiums while the market stayed irrational longer than expected, and his investors were freaking out before the collapse actually hit. Also correct that CDS value can rise before outright defaults happen. Spreads widening alone can generate mark-to-market profits. The movie compresses that nuance because “housing collapses = Burry wins” is easier for audiences to follow.

the_bagel_warmonger

I'm not saying that liquidity isn't a concern, I agree that it's a huge concern. Whenever there's a PE market correction (which eventually occur in all markets) this liquidity crunch will ripple through the retirement system and it would realistically require a government bailout like for MBS in 2008. Except it would be worse because MBS were primarily institutional in 2008, but because of TDFs this would also affect retail investors. That would also make it a lot more difficult to control the panic. These things absolutely don't belong in 401ks. IRAs are fine though IMO.

BeneficialVisit2477

You are right bro. The movie simplifies a lot for storytelling. Burry didn’t invent CDSs, he just recognized that AAA subprime MBS were being badly mispriced. And you’re also right that CDS positions can become profitable before actual defaults occur, simply from weakening credit conditions and spread widening. The book explains the mechanics a bit more clearly than the film does.

Commercial-Group4859

Movies like these are simplified to be understood by a general audience. Yes, his premiums will be low but, in the end, if the notional of the CDS is high, the amount would still be important. Additionally, he would most likely be shorting the higher risk tranches which were not necessarily AAA. This connects to the part of the movie where the two guys from Brownfield get the brilliant idea of shorting the AA tranches becaues no one was doing it. The profit part is when they go to the ratings agencies. Since they had not adjusted the credit rating of the MBS's, that left Burry unable to profit from his position while already having spent a significant amount on premiums.

Ill_Station_6165

Cut SOFR sell MBS, long duration. Steepen the curve and crash the market, Warsh is going to be good for banks and depositors and crush equities

maeynor

I know what he did what I’m saying is you usually can be elite at one product in finance. MBS specialist is not going to be as good in FX or metals or equities. He seems to try to call the top in markets he has no experience being a “guru” in. And does because it makes headlines and he likes the fame of that. It’s obvious. My point is when he says he’s shorting semis why should I listen? What track record does he have in knowing AI? Or any modern market? He recognized defaults rates in homes were picking up 20 years ago. Most hedge funds are smarter than him and they trade the market given.

infomer

It looks authentic because AI won’t be stupid enough to call MBS the President of Saudi Arabia

maeynor

Finance is hard. You’d be lucky to be super right on one market one time like burry was with MBS/CDOs. Why people listen to him about a market he clearly has no clue in understanding is beyond me. He was a flash in a pan. Not a guru

FrumpyFollicle

The issue with the '08 crisis wasn't just that MBSes were fraudulently being rated AAA, it's that highly rated debt is used as collateral for short term liquidity. Banks, insurance companies, any company that has a lot of long-term holdings and could theoretically need a lot of cash on short notice, use their long-term assets as collateral for liquidity (same concept as home owners getting a HELOC) via repos or other measures. So the value of these MBSes collapsed and with it came a liquidity crisis until the Fed fired up the money printer to buy all the garbage MBSes from the banks to bail them out and pump cash into the economy. In the meantime, people got fucked as the economy went to shit, the value of their homes went down, and they lost their jobs, which resulted in more people selling their houses, lowering the prices of houses even more, more people defaulting, etc. In my view, a company like SpaceX can definitely pump and dump and the bag holders will be fucked. But I don't see how the AI bubble bursting will have the same ripple effects as the MBS market collapsing did.

Brawmethius

Lip service. They all talk about reigning in the balance sheet but none of them outline a plan. He says he doesn't want as many MBS great. Except they are extremely sticky an essentially can only be rolled of by maturity, so 30 year (or we can crash the MBS market again). You see him propose a MBS purchase moratorium? FED even under powell has tried to roll off balance sheet to be hit by REPO market throwing tantrums essentially indicating that liquidity floor for ample reserve has been following the sheet up. He going to crash the financial system? Everyone wants a Volcker move in the FED but that was in the days of scare reserves we are now in Bernankes ample reserve framework (further adopted by Powell). So there is a very real ugly reality, there is very little they can do as the financial system has grown around this and it requires long term transitioning off. And it requires fiscal policy side as well. Warsh like Powell before him will try walk the line of being credible enough to sell debt while not crashing the system. If you want an interesting read on this I think Russel Napiers interview back in 2021 ish was spot on for the structural change in markets we are seeing where Monetary policy of the central banks starts to get dwarfed by fiscal policy needs. \ https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

Ok-Neighborhood-566

unlike the MBS, AI is not build on lies - it's just a matter of how fast it will advance

twenty_three_three

MBS told Mango to fuck off and cutoff use of their airspace and bases. Whole project concluded in 36 hours.

Teeemooooooo

Because people misunderstand how banks make money. All they do is facilitate transactions or hold assets on their books etc. and skim the top. A company doesn’t want to hold inventory they don’t plan on using for months-years? The bank will hold it for you and charge interest. People always think banks make money on mortgages but those are bundled up and sold immediately as MBS or in a different type of derivative. Banks rarely if ever lose money because all transactions are hedged. It takes large market downturn or being caught conducting tax avoidance transactions or fines, etc. As long as banks have cash, they’re going to make lots of money unless there are 0 investment opportunities.

imustbegthequestion

Lucid is an interesting company. They're taking a while to release their SUV. I feel like they have potential use in Motorsport, especially the direction Formula 1 is heading. Does that add wight to future growth. Plus MBS is all in. 🤷🏿‍♂️ But, I'm just musing cause I always....

Pain--In--The--Brain

It's also probably a factor that by some accounts MBS/KSA are pushing the war, and others are not so happy about it. Not making for great economic political alliances. That said, it's a potentially dangerous game for UAE. If the Hormuz/Iran situation suddenly reverses, Saudi will again have the upper hand in pricing power.

VancouverSky

MBS might have some strong opinions on it. He already blockaded Qatar by land once. He can find excuses to do it again.

Ok_Ad798

Long on INTC, FNMA, FMCC, and BULL. INTC U.S. will not allow to get crushed. Huge ecosystem moat (x86 dominance). Massive revenue base ($54B+) enabling heavy R&D. 18A process in high‑volume manufacturing. AI PC upgrade cycle tailwind. Foundry business gaining first major customers. Geopolitical support. FNMA and FMCC - Massive market share (~45% each) — Together they guarantee about $7 trillion in U.S. mortgages, giving them unmatched scale. - Critical to U.S. housing liquidity — They buy mortgages, package them into MBS, and guarantee against default, stabilizing the entire housing system. - Conservatorship roadmap emerging — Treasury and FHFA have issued guidelines for an eventual release, boosting investor sentiment. - Potential privatization upside — If released from conservatorship, equity holders could benefit from repricing as government ownership unwinds. - Strong earnings base — Recent net income: FNMA ~$21B, FMCC ~$19B. BULL - Strong cash generation — Webull’s 2025 surge in operating and free cash flow materially strengthened its financial flexibility. - Profitability turnaround — The company moved into profitability in 2025, improving investor sentiment. - Growing global footprint — Expansion into Canada, Latin America, and Europe is rapidly increasing AUM and user base. - Subscription revenue momentum — Webull Premium and paid analytics products are exceeding targets, boosting recurring revenue. - Product innovation (AI assistant Vega) — Enhances engagement and supports higher ARPU. - Zero‑commission expansion — New zero‑commission trading in Canada increases competitiveness. Contrarians welcome.

Lol-throwaway-WSB

I watched the whole 2.5hr confirmation hearing. I think his plan is to offload the b/s of non-treasury assets while simultaneously lowering rates. This will add a bunch of MBS' to the market and supply will increase and demand will decrease as a result. Pensions, REITS, insurers will become the primary market but they will demand higher yields as a result. Could be a good way for them to transition out of the private credit toxic sludge pool they're holding onto now. However, that would probably result in very high mortgage rates. I think there's more to what he's trying to accomplish than easing stagflation or preventing increased inflation. In his confirmation hearing, he basically pitched the idea of Monte-Carlo-ing the rates and throwing out all of the "one time" or "transitionary" inflationary risks that are impacting the upward movements on prices. So, he's going to figure out how to exclude things like tariffs, oil shocks, etc. from the data and see what the "true underlying rate is" and go from there. In my opinion, these "one time impacts" are vast and compounding in nature and shouldn't be excluded from the overall analysis or dataset. Bottom line is, if he wants to massage the numbers to accomplish what Trump wants him to do, it'll happen, and there's nothing we can really do to stop that at this point.

Krillin113

He also allegedly likes to torture and kill cats, so he’s perfect company for Bibi and MBS

TomatoSpecialist6879

The joke just writes itself, or in this case comments. Another textbook economist with the memory retention of a road kill, nice of you to be talking about MBS tranches by rating agencies like it's the sole culprit when multiple people involved had criminal prosecution levied against them exactly because they colluded with the banks to let it happen. The fact that something that illegal has happened and you're still over here like "Bessent won't do that because it's highly illegal!!" after the last full year of this admin doing all sorts of illegal shit makes you look extra fucking dumb. Also I'm in my 40s with kids and net aum north of 9 digits, your response screams broke economist that has never made anything off the market outside of yapping about all the things that has happened around it. Sybau.

pembquist

It is not illegal for Trumps buddy MBS to short futures when told the USA and Israel are going to bomb Iran.

PugsAndHugs95

The market can do anything it wants, never has it been more walled off from the real economy, and is at one of its most deregulated points in its recent history. Omissions, lying, cooked financials, insider trading are all allowed because the billionaires quite literally are running the government and are letting the market get away with whatever it wants lol. It’s also heavily automated, so the second something hits Bloomberg terminal, or combination of metrics occurs, the funds trade to protect themselves and hedge toward profit. Unless you see private equity debt get caught in the open as being worthless, or the sudden devaluation of a large swathe of the MBS market like in the late 2000s, this markets going to continue to rip up.

jah_bro_ney

Even when he was right the first time, ratings agencies were still handing out AAA ratings all the way up until the end on MBS, so even if he's right again he still has to battle through a system of total corruption to be proven right.

jffadvisors

Everything he has made big bets on since the MBS market crash has been a dud.

Nice-Ad-8156

People give Michael Burry way too much attention. He is quite literally the definition of a 1 hit wonder and shorting MBS wasn’t even his idea.

Outrageous_Length975

Yeah, I'm sure we can trust AI instead of the guy who literally made hundreds of millions of dollars from actually reading dozens of MBS prospectuses and picking the ones to buy credit default swaps on. Everyone else who got famous for buying CDS's in the lead up to the crash did so on the coattails of Burry's work. Spoiler: he's correct. The question is whether the market cares and when they will.

BillyShears2015

MBS just has to threaten to dump all his SPY shares and 🥭 will comply.

ChampionshipOdd947

So no one cares then about GS missing badly on FICC, signaling problems in the MBS sector again? Okay

Athos427

The average person does not understand what was going on in 2008 other than a “housing bubble.” This is anecdotal, but my friends don’t know the difference between a MBS, CDO, or CDS, and I’m willing to bet the average person wouldn’t either. Even today, people on social media (especially in this sub) don’t realize what they’re talking about.

yngmsss

CNBC and other sources put it around $3T but it’s hard to estimate and $3T might even be conservative. Either way relative to the total credit market, hundreds of trillions, it’s a drop. The majority of the private credit crunch tied to software company borrowing is actually due in 2028, roughly 25% matures then, not now. Private credit alone doesn’t pose a systemic risk in my opinion and that seems to be the rough market consensus too. Partly because as the name implies most of it is private. In 2007-08 when Bear Stearns showed the first signs of stress it looked to every expert like a contained issue. No metrics, no formulas that could assess the real extent of it. I’ll assume some here know what changed with Basel III so I won’t go deep but essentially banks are now forced by regulation to transfer risk off their balance sheets. In practice: ∙ Banks lend to private credit firms profiting off spreads and fees while credit risk sits off their balance sheet inside the fund ∙ BNPL providers (PayPal, Klarna etc.) originate loans and immediately securitize them as ABS, repackaged into CDOs. Structurally different from GFC era instruments but not necessarily safer ∙ Insurance companies hold this paper under accounting rules that don’t require mark-to-market so losses stay invisible until they aren’t ∙ CLO pools are leveraged and tranches get sold to other funds or shadow entities It looks much smaller than a GFC scenario but we genuinely don’t know the real scale. Before Basel III the entities doing this were mostly banks so even when risks were disguised a rough picture could be captured if anyone looked hard enough. Now the risk is dispersed across private unregulated opaque entities. Could be smaller than feared, could be larger. Nobody knows. What I’d stress: MBS was a regulated, rated, publicly traded market. Most of what’s being discussed here is private, unrated, or held by entities with no mark-to-market obligation. We won’t know the real exposure until someone is forced to recognize it and by then it’s already a crisis.

DanasSideWife

Scam Altman and Peter Theil are in intense talks with MBS to open the gays again

bungnard

The GCC never trusted Iran and this has pushed them closer to Israel than anything. MBS is whispering in trumps ear to get rid of this regime.

MirthandMystery

Check the upcoming Netanyahu remix called The Reveal (Ashkelon pipeline) that will give Iran regime the sads. Kushner creates beats to MBS rapping about a new partnership and dropping deals with the old regime. Trump never knew what hit him got played bad but everyone making money so..

MirthandMystery

Haha, with Jared Kushner married to Ivanka and is close pals with Netanyahu even proposing this is pure fantasy. Sorry friend but it's worse than you can imagine. Israel is bombing to collapse Irans power from within and source of income- oil, so they can show the world how unreliable the regime is and Israeli is offering an alternative to their oil, by proposing an Israeli pipeline in a new location to bypass Irans. They've been planning this for decades and to complicate it, Kushner already signed personal deals recently with MBS for investment funds, because they're chums who see ways to exploit one another and this manufactured crisis.

MirthandMystery

MBS/Saudis are investing in the Ellisons directly which aim to consolidate right wing power over the media, to control the message viewers see. They're also cutting deals with Kushner and Witkoff to build out new oil pipelines to Israel that can bypass Iran and cut them off from regional dominance. New alliances that will profit more from crude and gas sales and shipment and control U.S. politicians.

MirthandMystery

It's partly to show Iran isn't reliable and people will seek other partners to buy crude from. Like the Saudis, Qatar and the U.S.. and eventually Israel, who wants to become a gang in the oil club by building out a new regional pipeline. The violent population removal in Gaza was about this as is bombing south Lebanon. They also just recognized Somaliland in Dec as a real country and are bribing the leader to give them a military base there so they can better control the Houthis and help give security to the strait of Hormuz. Israel and Kushner also have done deals to partner with MBS to create a new regional partner for future projects. All corrupt players are united and Iran is being cut out. Mods will ban my post if I put up a link but for more of a newer big picture summary just search YouTube for @moreperfectunion post 'How Trump's Son in Law Became a Foreign Agent'. Search Google for Israel pipeline plans too. Look for 'Israeli PM Proposes Mediterranean Pipeline to Bypass Strait of Hormuz' and similar will show up.

MirthandMystery

That's when demand destruction hits and real lasting damage is done. If you wondered why Trump was always so focused on cancelling renewables (and personally invested in energy companies, banks and defense sector early on this term) now you're understanding how widespread his and his sons corruption has grown. Their crypto schemes were just a start to dig out of his first term debt. Now he's rigged things to invest first then engage in war which affects many levers, and stocks- which he sees a pattern of that easily drop and rip depending on sentiment. He and his cronies have banked big, as has Putin and MBS through high oil prices. And ironically, the Iranian regime.

modder9

And then MBS cut up his nephew. Small world.

shicken684

Pretty much the same thing now. Trump and MBS are intertwined at every level

sigga_genesis

Kushner and Graham, working with MBS/Netanyahu and Mossad respectively manipulated the old man into it. They all know how easy he is to manipulate.

circadiggmigration

Because the risk would be too large. In 08 they just capitalized the loans. They were able to do that because MBS losses were overwhelming the entire revenue of the company. This time, there would be no revenue, or not enough, no matter how much money they print.

JoseLunaArts

He thought it would be a 48 hour war like Venezuela. Kill the leader, Iran collapses. Go take Iran. It did not go as planned. Ali Khamenei was the second most prominent man in their faith. No one in the west realize about the level of grievance that murder caused across the muslim world. Also, killing world leaders sends a message to other world leaders. And it is not a good one. And bypassing international law also sends a very bad message. Add insulting allies to the list. Trump saying that MBS would kiss his arse is extremely offensive. Trump insulting the Japanese lady in the White House with that reference to Pearl Harbor was out of place too.

No-Block-2095

Mid 50’s here and prepping for retirement. Market timing in & out of cash isn’t for me. Once I retire I won’t spend my stash all at once the day after I retire. I’ll need money over 30years and hopefully more. So it will suffer some crashes and some runups. Therefore I need to match risk & liabilities with proper duration, diversification … which means the right asset allocation for our situation. I ve been diversifying & rebalancing in 1Q and yes that includes buying equities as they ve gone down. Since you said things are so bleak now, what words did you use to describe - 2025 liberation day/ week - 2022 crash in both stocks & bonds - 2020 March covid - 2008-09 credit seizing up, MBS meltdown followed by Great Recession - 2001 market reopen after 9/11 - 2001 Telecom bust - 2000 DotCom crash …

GammaReaper_

Covers every imaginable security, from simple things like stocks up to the most complicated securities like MBS, CDS, plus access to institutional research etc etc. Not sure why a junior trader(?) that barely knows what a stock option needs a BT.

asetniop

After what happened with Kristi Noem's husband I would not be the least bit surprised to learn that Jared is getting cornholed by MBS on the reg.

McKoijion

Netanyahu, MBS, MBZ, etc. want an invasion.

ModeForJoe

BIG BEAUTIFUL SPEECH tonight!? Don't bother... just watch /ES, /CL, $SPY, $USO, etc... for unusual trade activity in the hours leading up to this. If you have a service that realtime scans for unusual options activity, even better. Whoever's insider trading probably layered in the trade position during market hours, but that's not 100%. Instead, Mango might be getting pulled left and right by phone calls from Bibi, MBS, Lady Lindsay, Kegsbreath, etc... so even HE isn't sure what direction to go into until just before. It's likely that the mole dishing out insider info won't know for sure the direction of the speech until just before. One thing's for sure, the speech contents won't be a well-kept secret within the WH inner circle... cat's gonna get outta the bag prior to speech, and I want us to be the first to get to strangle it.

UnderB0SS

Yeah, us walking away with Hormuz closed will leave that region on fire. MBS and team will be pretty unhappy. I’m sure the US will get to keep all its air bases in those countries like Saudi and Qatar if they aren’t actively defending them. 🙄 Also, can you imagine the deals countries will cut with Iran? Will those deals include political outcomes Iran wants like dropping open support for Israel? Crazy.

Any_Context1

MBS wasted how much on the failed Neom? This isn’t about money. It’s about geopolitics. 

Silent_Standard_663

With who will the UAE would invade ? By paying mercenaries? Lol The only one left would be Saudia, look how they essentially lost against a armed insurgency (Houthis). SA buys peace with money with its own people but they people are not willing to die for MBS.

iCaps_

Whats MBS?

SlartibartfastMcGee

If MBS could cut a $30b check and have things go back to normal, he would in a heartbeat.

Oneitised

SA supposedly wanted it, where are you getting this information from? MBS was supportive according to multiple reports and I haven’t seen anything to the contrary. Mind sharing where you are getting your information as I would be curious to read.

staythewaters

I mean, Saudi Arabia only has themselves to blame for this. MBS and Netanyahu convinced Trump to do this. He just thought he'd get away with not having to commit any Saudi lives or money for it. Big fucking mistake to rely on Trump for this.

Marcus_Aurelius71

Perhaps MBS, but the other Arab leaders of Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE are not aligned with war and would rather make money. War prevents money from being made. Qatar and the UAE made significant investments with the US, but in the end, failed to adequately protect the GCC.

ProgrammaticallyHip

🎯 Saudi Arabia views itself as locked in an existential struggle vs Iran. MBS compares their leaders to Hitler, and he’s not speaking hyperbolically. He believes it. They believe Iran is bent on domination of the region to export Shia Islam into Sunni nations. Iran’s proxies aren’t just preoccupied by the destruction of Israel. They want to undermine every Sunni state.

Snowedin-69

Saudi Crown Prince MBS must be pissed after what he said yesterday. Not sure how that will play out behind the scenes in the GCC but adds an additional dimension.

Ok-Analysis4121

Dude insulted MBS. That alone is enough to crash this shit

Slow-Information-847

The market may not look good for Monday after 🥭 said MBS was kissing his arse.

LocoGyopo

I'm curious where you are getting your information as to blame allocation for the Strait closure. My friend who works in the various Gulf States (mostly the UAE) told me that even most Arabs he knows realize that America is destroying their countries/economies via Iran on behalf of Israel and MBS. I've honestly wondered how soon it would be before countries start agreeing to supply Iran with missiles and launchers (to be used only against Israel) in exchange for safe passage through the Strait and to avoid being targets.

Fit_Neighborhood9251

Imagine watching insane tank explosion videos in the combatfootage forum in the 1st 3 days of the UKRRU war and someone wrote in the comments: 5 years from now Zelenski will be meeting MBS to make a deal for Gasoline in exchange to interceptors to destroy iranian suicide drones you will be like - i want whatever this guy is smoking.

WendyDumpsterFire

Are we going to be red again because 🥭 made fun of MBS

talaabo

🥭 said "MBS didn't think he'd be kissing my a\*\*". He is truly crazy.

No_Play_7695

Does anyone think there could be positive news over the weekend? In the form of a proxy war. Houthis entering the war today and yesterday Trump talking about MBS kissing ass surely can't be a coincidence. A proxy war is essentially a win/win for Iran & US. For Iran it avoids their country being directly attacked by US/Israel and the US can claim Iran backed down & strait ***slowly*** opens up. Ofc for Israel they can grab some land via Lebanon.

peteypaaaablo

If bernanke and Paulson didn’t bail out the banks at the time they did there’s a very real possibility it would have nuked the entire global financial system….like no cash coming out of ATMs, panic in the streets, etc. And at the end of the day the federal government was paid back with interest. All of the people who cry about the bailout conveniently don’t address the way they might have handled it differently and how they imagine that would’ve played out. I’m not any more of a bailout fan than anyone else, but to a large degree it was necessary. The way to teach the people who were actually responsible lessons would have been aggressive SEC actions (especially into Goldman Sachs handling of their MBS portfolio in the beginning stages of the 2008 meltdown) once things stabilized on a macro level, alongside an FBI investigation into the ratings agencies for spending the entire early aughts essentially selling high grades on obscenely packaged CDLs brought to them by the banks. The only thing that refusing any bailout would’ve accomplished is chaos and it would’ve been Main Street that had to eat it.

McKoijion

I'm just waiting for MBS's family to give him the MBS treatment.