MBS
Angel Oak Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF
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Mid 50’s here and prepping for retirement. Market timing in & out of cash isn’t for me. Once I retire I won’t spend my stash all at once the day after I retire. I’ll need money over 30years and hopefully more. So it will suffer some crashes and some runups. Therefore I need to match risk & liabilities with proper duration, diversification … which means the right asset allocation for our situation. I ve been diversifying & rebalancing in 1Q and yes that includes buying equities as they ve gone down. Since you said things are so bleak now, what words did you use to describe - 2025 liberation day/ week - 2022 crash in both stocks & bonds - 2020 March covid - 2008-09 credit seizing up, MBS meltdown followed by Great Recession - 2001 market reopen after 9/11 - 2001 Telecom bust - 2000 DotCom crash …
Covers every imaginable security, from simple things like stocks up to the most complicated securities like MBS, CDS, plus access to institutional research etc etc. Not sure why a junior trader(?) that barely knows what a stock option needs a BT.
After what happened with Kristi Noem's husband I would not be the least bit surprised to learn that Jared is getting cornholed by MBS on the reg.
Netanyahu, MBS, MBZ, etc. want an invasion.
BIG BEAUTIFUL SPEECH tonight!? Don't bother... just watch /ES, /CL, $SPY, $USO, etc... for unusual trade activity in the hours leading up to this. If you have a service that realtime scans for unusual options activity, even better. Whoever's insider trading probably layered in the trade position during market hours, but that's not 100%. Instead, Mango might be getting pulled left and right by phone calls from Bibi, MBS, Lady Lindsay, Kegsbreath, etc... so even HE isn't sure what direction to go into until just before. It's likely that the mole dishing out insider info won't know for sure the direction of the speech until just before. One thing's for sure, the speech contents won't be a well-kept secret within the WH inner circle... cat's gonna get outta the bag prior to speech, and I want us to be the first to get to strangle it.
Yeah, us walking away with Hormuz closed will leave that region on fire. MBS and team will be pretty unhappy. I’m sure the US will get to keep all its air bases in those countries like Saudi and Qatar if they aren’t actively defending them. 🙄 Also, can you imagine the deals countries will cut with Iran? Will those deals include political outcomes Iran wants like dropping open support for Israel? Crazy.
MBS wasted how much on the failed Neom? This isn’t about money. It’s about geopolitics.
With who will the UAE would invade ? By paying mercenaries? Lol The only one left would be Saudia, look how they essentially lost against a armed insurgency (Houthis). SA buys peace with money with its own people but they people are not willing to die for MBS.
If MBS could cut a $30b check and have things go back to normal, he would in a heartbeat.
SA supposedly wanted it, where are you getting this information from? MBS was supportive according to multiple reports and I haven’t seen anything to the contrary. Mind sharing where you are getting your information as I would be curious to read.
I mean, Saudi Arabia only has themselves to blame for this. MBS and Netanyahu convinced Trump to do this. He just thought he'd get away with not having to commit any Saudi lives or money for it. Big fucking mistake to rely on Trump for this.
Perhaps MBS, but the other Arab leaders of Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE are not aligned with war and would rather make money. War prevents money from being made. Qatar and the UAE made significant investments with the US, but in the end, failed to adequately protect the GCC.
🎯 Saudi Arabia views itself as locked in an existential struggle vs Iran. MBS compares their leaders to Hitler, and he’s not speaking hyperbolically. He believes it. They believe Iran is bent on domination of the region to export Shia Islam into Sunni nations. Iran’s proxies aren’t just preoccupied by the destruction of Israel. They want to undermine every Sunni state.
Saudi Crown Prince MBS must be pissed after what he said yesterday. Not sure how that will play out behind the scenes in the GCC but adds an additional dimension.
Dude insulted MBS. That alone is enough to crash this shit
The market may not look good for Monday after 🥭 said MBS was kissing his arse.
I'm curious where you are getting your information as to blame allocation for the Strait closure. My friend who works in the various Gulf States (mostly the UAE) told me that even most Arabs he knows realize that America is destroying their countries/economies via Iran on behalf of Israel and MBS. I've honestly wondered how soon it would be before countries start agreeing to supply Iran with missiles and launchers (to be used only against Israel) in exchange for safe passage through the Strait and to avoid being targets.
Imagine watching insane tank explosion videos in the combatfootage forum in the 1st 3 days of the UKRRU war and someone wrote in the comments: 5 years from now Zelenski will be meeting MBS to make a deal for Gasoline in exchange to interceptors to destroy iranian suicide drones you will be like - i want whatever this guy is smoking.
Are we going to be red again because 🥭 made fun of MBS
🥭 said "MBS didn't think he'd be kissing my a\*\*". He is truly crazy.
Does anyone think there could be positive news over the weekend? In the form of a proxy war. Houthis entering the war today and yesterday Trump talking about MBS kissing ass surely can't be a coincidence. A proxy war is essentially a win/win for Iran & US. For Iran it avoids their country being directly attacked by US/Israel and the US can claim Iran backed down & strait ***slowly*** opens up. Ofc for Israel they can grab some land via Lebanon.
If bernanke and Paulson didn’t bail out the banks at the time they did there’s a very real possibility it would have nuked the entire global financial system….like no cash coming out of ATMs, panic in the streets, etc. And at the end of the day the federal government was paid back with interest. All of the people who cry about the bailout conveniently don’t address the way they might have handled it differently and how they imagine that would’ve played out. I’m not any more of a bailout fan than anyone else, but to a large degree it was necessary. The way to teach the people who were actually responsible lessons would have been aggressive SEC actions (especially into Goldman Sachs handling of their MBS portfolio in the beginning stages of the 2008 meltdown) once things stabilized on a macro level, alongside an FBI investigation into the ratings agencies for spending the entire early aughts essentially selling high grades on obscenely packaged CDLs brought to them by the banks. The only thing that refusing any bailout would’ve accomplished is chaos and it would’ve been Main Street that had to eat it.
I'm just waiting for MBS's family to give him the MBS treatment.
>Was the effect of greed/the thought that “the housing market cannot crash” that strong to blind them from doing DD? No. For a serious answer there were more than one effects in play. Most people know about the MBS situation and focus on that, as well as the bad correlations and poor statistical arguments, but you also had a real income fluctuation in 2007 which caused people to lose jobs and therefore lose the ability to maintain these balloon loans. So it wasn't the risk buried in the securities but instead the risk buried in the employment market that caused the crash overall. Think of it like doing DD on Meta but not realizing that Meta is reliant on pineapples in Malaysia flowing freely because a pineapple famine there results in the foreign workforce collapsing due to scurvy from vitamin C shortage for some critical task. No one is going to think of this but it's things like that which cause these issues. >Did the banks check to see why Burry wanted a massive position in Credit Default Swaps and if his theory had any legitimacy before selling Burry his massive positions in CDSs that would result in the banks having massive losses when they paid off? Did the banks hedge their risk against their exposure to Burry’s (and other) CDS positions and if so, why didn’t their hedge position(s) work? Yes, but hedging this position was easy. Remember, what actually "broke" wasn't banks, it was **insurance**, specifically AIG. The banks were super protected which is why they didn't mind taking it on; they already could not blow up. Yes, some bank exposure did occur, but again most of it was consumed by AIG and other insurance companies which effectively had to be bailed out. The losers here weren't the banks, because they just passed the risk on, but AIG who should have stopped them from breaking VAR models. Essentially you have too much focus on one player, the banks, but the game itself is bigger: 1. The unemployment rate rose in 2007. 2. The banks were heavily insured so it was free money for them. 3. The insurance companies and fed oversight were weak(er) at the time so they just ponied up when it came time to pay up on the grounds that they "couldn't have seen it coming" because it was the banks that blindsided them. The retelling of the story is fun but not 100% accurate.
Negotiations? Bibi said no deal. MBS said no deal. The Gulf States said no deal. So we ask for something outrageous and continue the fight. In return, the Iranians who don't trust us and ask for something equally outrageous, reinforce Kharg Island, and maybe the same for the Straits (use some of their 1 M in uniform). You've got 2 MEUs and the 82nd Airborne and possibly other forces out there? that could take limited amounts of territory, but maybe couldn't hold it or completely protect shipping in the Strait. Smash and grab? But Iranians would probably sink ships and destroy energy infrastructure, driving prices way up, threatening the Trump's bond market. So we play a war of attrition, our resupply versus Russia and maybe China resupply. We hope that we eventually gain the upper hand, but my guess is not this weekend. Really don't know how it ends. Maybe we end up with something like the "no fly zone" after the first Gulf War.
If I recall correctly they did hedge for the riskiest MBS but then sold CDS for the less risky ones thinking there was no way the default rates would ever touch those. Of course the CDS for the less risky ones command a higher payoff.
That's great but what about MBS and Bibi. That's the case against being bullish.
Nope. The problem with 2008 wasn't withdrawal rates. It was banks underestimating the volatility of MBS and were highly leveraged into these assets. These assets were also incorrectly rated by the rating agencies and people were incentivized to purchase mortgages like crazy and could easily do it without any income, job or asset and were still given a mortgage All of these in combination were bad combined. All the things you've linked is priced in. It's public information. 2008 the mechanic of how bad it could get and how many banks would start defaulting was not priced in until you start seeing bank failures, THEN those things started getting priced in.
Please tell me you're sarcastic. When the MBS tanked in 2008 did you say it wasn't happening because everyone said it was happening?
Imo trump is torn between boots on the ground and war and saving the global economy. It's escalated so much now for him that there are no good options, media reporting Saudis MBS is pushing him to finish the job.
While I really want to believe Trump is controlling the economy and the worst person ever, there may be another explanation, which isn't much better. It is more likely trump understands the movement of certain large investments. These exist in the form of what is called a Total Return Swap (TRS). In the Epstein files, you can read how Epstein predicted everything crashing, and discussing with a financial advisor (I believe from JP Morgan), about going long on OIL. These swaps were 5 year swaps, which started around June 2016, renewed in 2021. These TRS have BIG payments due this year, as the CDs and bonds mature. In order for their long oil positions to be positive, this war in the Middle East is essential. Some people Epstein met with while making these deals include Saudi crown prince MBS and the former prime minister of Qatar (two countries being hit heavily in this war, despite not being direct aggressors). It is likely trump followed Epstein on this investment. Large sales and purchases can't happen suddenly. The logistics don't function within the current market, but outside of it, in Dark Pools. If you look at the current dark pool buy orders, we are sitting at the bottom (SPY at 650). Trump knows when these tranches and swaps are due, and is likely just timing his posts to make it look like he is controlling the economy, so people don't become aware of their greater financial moves. June 1st is when their TRS full matures. If you look at option chains across any ticker, I bet you see heavy positioning for July and August, but not much before then. That is because the market is expecting heightened volatility before June. Markets seem to be positioning for as low as 250, and as high as 850. Gonna be a wild few months.
Lmao he threw MBS under the bus. Puts on Aramco
Oh god. MBS and Bibi got the dude by the balls. Taco Bell isn’t on the menu.
It’s a fucked war but people gotta remember that Iran postures as hard as anyone, it’s what countries do. The entire Middle East more or less happily helped out, and MBS has been egging trump on to attack Iran. It’s no secret the Saudi government doesn’t like the Iranian government. Obviously Israel wanted this too. But it’s crazy to act like Iran got along with the Arab states in recent history.
> Saudi Leader Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/saudi-prince-iran-trump.html Epstein and MBS were close friends and allies. https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/screenshot-2026-02-09-at-13-26-01.png?c=original&q=w_860,c_fill https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-saudi-arabia/ https://www.middleeasteye.net/trending/saudi%20arabia-crown-prince-photo-inside-jefrrey-epstein-mansion-fuels-criticism-online
MBS pushing for more war lol oil to $200
Bonesawer MBS pushing Trump to continue the war against Iran, per NYT.
The rumor on Wall St is that the Saudis will cover the reparations so the US can save face, but the MBS is reportedly now close to a decision to join the war. There’s this weird attitude in finance circles that nothing really bad can ever happen and this will all be over in a few weeks anyway. When the TACO put finally collapses we’re going to be in deep shit.
Of course he lied. His son is part owner of polymarket.. where you (and his family/friends) can literally bet on what the guy will say. It’s grifting that only takes second to Kush/MBS. There is no limit to the wealth they desire, it’s never enough, and they will not rest when more can be redirected from hardworking constituents like yourself, especially when stealing is this easy. Try to stay calm. Get outside. Restructure your life and avoid politics or gambling in any form. You can recover from this. Put down the shovel and you’ll be able to pull yourself out. Avoid the rabbit holes.. Be kind and you’ll see more come your way.
Shout out to MBS for flooding the desert that one time..
You're wrong, for a number of reasons: 1. Private credit loans are way less levered (and therefore risky) than RMBS. 2. Private credit loans, while perhaps somewhat exposed to "buying at the top" via multiple expansion, are ultimately loans against a cash generative business vs. RMBS loans which are backed by crappy, inflated housing that has no intrinsic economic value. 3. ABS is often pointed to as the bogeyman of '08 by people who don't know what they're talking about, but the real differentiating feature of the '08 crash was not ABS per se but rather the scale it was able to achieve through synthetic ABS. In order to amass such a hugely levered, highly-correlated pile of long bets on US housing, banks had to use credit default swaps to replace the supply of subprime MBS that they were running out of in \~2005 - this by the way is also why it touched the insurance sector, since their insurance contracts formed the basis of cash flows in a synthetic RMBS offering. In this way, the already under-estimated correlation between mortgage delinquencies in different parts of the country was compounded by a synthetics market that effectively created the appearance of more diversification while really just increasing levered exposure to the same correlated part of the real economy. 4. The mark-to-market mechanics which accelerated the unwinding of RMBS and synthetic RMBS in 2008 and made it so catastrophic to the highly levered institutions which held these assets at the time have no analogue today. The valuation dynamics of private equity are by and large much more decentralized and less conflicted than the practices observed in '08, in which large issuer banks acting in a conflicted capacity as both principal and agent while structuring synthetic RMBS would have free rein to participate on both sides of the trade and then set prices marks favorably for their own position. In short, there is a difference between pre-08 and post-08 when dodgy loans moved into the shadow banking sector...the difference is that if these loans blow up the carnage is largely constrained to PC funds and the LPs who invest in them.
Private equity debt is considered risky and as such has a higher capital requirement. The rated note feeders repackage different sets of PE debt to create notes that are rated to be less risky and therefore have a lower capital requirement, similar to how varying tranches of MBS were repackaged to be less risky
We just need the Qataris and Saudis to dangle another jet or two in front of 🍊’s face so he won’t cause one of the biggest crises of the decade. Anybody got an Emir or MBS’s number?
Apples to Oranges. Mortgage backed securities were treated like T notes pre 08. This meant they were tied into pension funds, money market funds, banks being able to over leverage as mortgages were considered more stable. This is before you even get into the mess of insurance on MBS securities that wont exist with private credit. Dont get me wrong it can be bad but its not fundamental to the entire market.
I think the MBS market was like 7.3 trillion in 2007 which would be like 11.3 trillion in today's money. The mortgage market it was based on was like 6 trillion which is like 9.5 trillion in today's money. 11.3 + 9.5 = 20.8 trillion total housing bond + MBS market in 2007 compared to 4.5 trillion in the private lending market. So about 1/4 of the size of the 2008 crisis in terms of market impact BUT also the overall market is bigger now in dollar terms so its impact on the market and banks is likely also reduced by that factor. I think these things combined with also as other have said this being mostly exposed to a few select banks, hedge funds and UHNW people vs the pensions, 401ks etc of 2008 means its not going to have the same level of impact on the broader economy. Sure its probably going to be bad for some people but not catastrophic. Maybe there is something I am missing but I just don't see it right now.
Sounds good to me. America should step back and let the IDF put boots on the ground. I'm sure MBS and MBZ will ride into battle right alongside them like in Lord of the Rings.
So my Ai said this cuh, ong you a cuck You’re stacking a lot of real risks—but the mistake is assuming they all **resolve in the same bearish direction at the same time**. Markets rarely give you that clean outcome. Let’s build the **actual bull case**, not a strawman. --- # The Bull Case for U.S. Stocks (mid–late 2020s) ## 1) The U.S. can run higher debt than you think Yes, debt/GDP may exceed World War II levels. But here’s what matters more than the number: * The U.S. issues debt in **its own currency** * That currency is the global reserve: United States dollar * Global system still runs on dollar liquidity (trade, energy, collateral) Japan has run **250%+ debt/GDP for decades** without collapse. **Bull takeaway:** High debt ≠ bearish by itself. It often leads to: * financial repression * moderate inflation * asset inflation (stocks ↑) --- ## 2) “Everyone is fully invested” is usually a myth That Reddit take is classic late-cycle thinking—but positioning data rarely supports “no buyers left.” Reality: * Pension funds still need to allocate * Sovereign wealth funds still deploy * Retail panic → creates buyers on dips * Corporations themselves = **largest buyers via buybacks** Companies like: * Apple * Microsoft are constant **structural demand** for equities. **Bull takeaway:** There is always a marginal buyer—especially when prices drop. --- ## 3) Stagflation is possible—but not the base case You’re right: stagflation would be toxic. But here’s the pushback: * Labor market is **cooling, not collapsing** * Productivity may rise from tech adoption * Supply-side improvements (reshoring, energy) If inflation trends from \~3–4% → \~2.5–3%: → the Federal Reserve can still: * cut gradually * ease financial conditions We don’t need 0% rates again. Just **less tight policy** is bullish. --- ## 4) AI doesn’t need perfection to justify valuations You’re assuming AI = bubble unless it becomes AGI. That’s too binary. Even without AGI: * automation of **10–20% of white-collar tasks** * software margin expansion * cost reduction across industries Companies like: * Microsoft * NVIDIA don’t need sci-fi outcomes—just **incremental productivity gains**. **Bull version of your point:** Even if 80% of AI spend is inefficient… the 20% that works can justify massive value. --- ## 5) Private credit stress ≠ systemic collapse You’re right it’s stretched. But compare to 2008: * Banks are better capitalized * Risk is **more distributed** * No single asset (like subprime MBS) dominates Firms like: * Apollo Global Management * KKR may take hits—but that’s not the same as system failure. **Bull takeaway:** This is more likely a **contained credit cycle**, not a collapse. --- ## 6) The U.S. still dominates globally (this matters more than macro doom) Relative performance > absolute perfection. Compare the U.S. to: * China → property crisis, demographics * Europe → slow growth, fragmentation Where does global capital go? → still the U.S. Because: * deepest capital markets * rule of law * tech leadership * innovation pipeline **Bull takeaway:** Even if the U.S. is flawed, it’s still the **best house in a bad neighborhood**. --- ## 7) Earnings can grow even in a “meh” economy This is where most bears get caught. Stocks follow: >earnings × multiple Even if multiples compress: * cost cutting * automation * pricing power → earnings can still grow S&P 500 is dominated by high-margin firms now, not industrials. --- ## 8) Inflation can actually be bullish (to a point) Moderate inflation (2–4%): * inflates nominal GDP * boosts corporate revenues * reduces real debt burden This is literally the environment where equities often outperform bonds. --- ## 9) Buybacks + passive flows = structural tailwind This didn’t exist in 2000 or 1929 at the same scale. Drivers: * 401(k) auto-investing * index funds (constant inflows) * corporate buybacks This creates a **persistent bid under the market**. --- ## 10) Your SaaS/VC argument is half right—but incomplete Yes: * multiples compressed * bad startups will die But: * survivors become **more profitable** * competition gets wiped out * capital reallocates to winners That’s actually bullish long-term. --- # The real bull case in one sentence You don’t need a perfect economy— you just need: * moderate growth * controlled inflation * no systemic crisis …and stocks grind higher. --- # Where your thesis could be right To keep it real (not just bullish spin), your view wins if: * inflation stays >4% AND growth collapses * private credit causes forced deleveraging * AI capex fails to produce returns * policy mistake by the Federal Reserve That’s a **specific combo**, not guaranteed. --- # Final pushback (intellectual sparring) Right now your stance is: >“Too many things are broken → market must go down” The market doesn’t work like that. It prices: * probability * timing * relative outcomes If even **2–3 of your bearish points don’t materialize**, equities can still outperform cash. https://preview.redd.it/p7wy12mfdhqg1.jpeg?width=1106&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a7958457ae05d80cf447cf19caea050e593b3d7
lol but MBS loves Trump and Qatar gave him a jet. Fuck em
* If the US surrenders to Iran and removes all troops from military bases in the region, Iran will reopen the Strait and oil prices will drop. SPY will fall in the long term because the petrodollar system would be over. * If the US "declares victory" and keeps its bases in the region, Iran will keep the Strait closed to any countries associated with the US and Israel. Oil prices will remain high and the S&P 500 will drop in the long term because the petrodollar system will be over. * If the US puts boots on the ground as part of a "quick military action" to take Kharg Island or grab nuclear material, Iran will destroy all oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf states. Oil will immediately skyrocket and will remain elevated for many years. The S&P 500 will immediately crash. * If the US escalates into a decades long ground war, oil will skyrocket. The main street American economy will crash into a new great recession and taxpayers will be on the hook for enormous amounts of debt. The stock and real estate markets will drop temporarily, but after poor people are forced to sell to the rich at a loss, they will recover. The owners of American oil companies, defense contractors, tech companies, Wall Street firms, etc. will make a fortune. Israel will create Greater Israel and build a large oil pipeline from the Gulf states to Israel that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. A ton of Americans, Iranians, and migrant workers in the Gulf will suffer and die. But the Israelis, Epstein elites, and Gulf state monarchs will make a fortune in the long run. It's obvious that Netanyahu, Trump, MBS, etc. are going to go with the fourth bullet option. It's been the plan for years as outlined in the Abraham Accords. It's why Mossad helped Trump get elected, helped MBS purge his family for the crown, helped Keir Starmer become the British Prime Minister, etc. The biggest risk is that the rest of the world has figured out what they’re doing. (Using Jared Kushner as a fund manager and a diplomat at the same time made it particularly obvious.) That includes foreign powers like China and Russia as well as the domestic populations of their own countries. They need to escalate this war as quickly as possible before they’re overthrown through a peaceful, democratic process or a violent rebellion.
GTFOH MBS Chopped up a Journalist.
Those people sold my dad MBS in 2007 and 2008 he lost a decent chunk of money when the banks started dumping that crap on retail investors. Private Equity is weak because they have gotten no return on the AI trade, the Trump Administration just loosened banking rules on lending, and Elon is trying to get SpaceX fast tracked to an S&P listing to gain access to the 24 trillion passive investment pool. It all adds ups to another financial meltdown. And with Trump’s team of idiots in the Whitehouss who know what will happen.
It kind of seems like Iran's plan is to just constantly launch drones at Israel forever. Most will miss, but just enough will hit to ensure that Israelis have to spend 99% of their lives in bomb shelters. And of course, each interception of a $20,000 drone will cost American taxpayers $4 million. Plus the debris will still fall to the ground and hit something. The same applies to the UAE. No expat tax dodger, influencer cum escort, or desperate migrant slave worker is going to live there knowing that they can be vaporized by a random drone at any moment. Dubai is the second busiest airport on Earth, and Iran has hit them multiple times. Even if you aren't killed, suffering through those flight delays will make you wish you were. If you're Netanyahu or MBS, you can jet off to DC or London whenever you want, but regular people have to live with this. If there was any real estate value, living standard, or anything else worthwhile in these places, it's gone. It's not like a British bomb shelter in a movie where everyone pulls together. People in those countries were at each others throats politically even before all this crap started. Netanyahu was facing prison for corruption. MBS purged his entire family for the crown. It's worse in Iran, but they've been living under awful conditions for many years. What more can sanctions do that the previous decades of sanctions couldn't? What targets are left for the US and Israel to bomb? They're already at rock bottom and have nothing more to lose. All Israelis could flee to the US. All of the Gulf state plutocrats could flee to London and still have the highest standard of living of anyone there. But there's nowhere on Earth for Iranians to go. They're backed into a corner and have no option but to fight their way out.
If I was a betting man, I’d guess those were actually serious plans, but never meant to be financed alone. They were supposed to draw other investors, which didn’t materialize. No, I doubt it was any money laundering plans around them. I don’t think MBS would put his reputation on the line just to launder some money.
Interesting take. I was in KSA last year and met with the ministry of AI, ministry of advanced manufacturing, and ministry of sustainability. I was shocked by their definition of “large” capex projects ($500B) versus what we think “large” is. However, after huge sums of money being spent there, everything they do look like hobbies. They are getting ripped off by western consultants that charge them criminal amounts of money and teach them how to download ChatGPT on their phones. /s Will they actually pull funding? Doubt it. They want to tell the world they’re serious about AI and sustainability. MBS announced he wants less than 50% GDP to be petroleum based. My random guess, this war will accelerate his plan to reduce oil economy reliance and increase investment in AI (really data centers) and renewable energy manufacturing (solar panels and desalination or hydrogen production)
When 🥭 meets with MBS: Who knows better about surprises than Saudi Arabia? Why didn't you tell me about 9/11?
It's complex and I don't like it either. Qatar hosts US bases and allows Israel to fly over it's airspace. Qatar and UAE always knew they would be involved in a regional war. This shouldn't have been a surprise. MBS and Trump seem to be the only people surprised by this.
Possibly: The unwind is from 10's to shorter Treasuries, specifically anything shorter than 17weeks. To be completely our guys did the same thing. When the cost of funds was .5% our guys borrowed at that Rate and bought MBS or Higher Corp Bonds B or better rated.
Lol dude, we've been talking to each other all day. There's only a dozen or so actual humans in this thread. You've been talking about politics too. It's neither of our faults that the single most important thing driving the global market right now is geopolitics. The little jokes and nuance matter. For example, Saudi Arabian ministers (but not the Crown Prince) criticized Israel directly for the first time a few minutes ago. If they flip teams like Iran wants, that could signal the end of the entire petrodollar system. > Riyadh ministers condemn Israel’s actions against Lebanon and its broader expansionist policies. The simple fact is that Trump, Netanyahu, and MBS are extremely unpopular at home. Trump was impeached twice, Netanyahu faced prison for corruption, and MBS got the crown by purging his entire family Game of Thrones style. So a joke about handing them over to Iran tells you exactly what's going on inside each of these countries. If you don't like the implication, that's fine. You're welcome to gamble away all your money on the other side of the bet. But this is more relevant to the market than absolutely anything else that happened today including JPow, Micron, and Meta abandoning the Metaverse.
You think if we handover Trump, Netanyahu, and MBS, the Iranians would let us go? I'm pretty sure about 8.3 billion humans would see that as win-win situation.
AGNC has a solid yield and performance over time, but what mechanism would get it to 10x? It's just a leveraged (and hedged) MBS play, which is actually feels like a rather conservative investment to me.
Yes. Umm i take it you weren’t around 2007-2008 “adjustment” with MBS
Which brings us back to OP: *Anton Eser, chief investment officer at Dutch asset manager Robeco. “In AI, this is not the dotcom boom. In private credit, this is not 2008.” He’s right. But we do have, he said, “a bit of each . . . That’s still not great.”* The question is how much of each 2001 and 2008? The AI buildout resembles dotcom, but much more supported by earnings. The private credit market resembles the MBS and CDS markets of 2008 (dog shit wrapped in cat shit). Oil spike is also reminiscent of 2008. The other lurker is the potential AI disruption of whole industries and employment itself.
Today, in the middle of a war, with the beginning of stagflation upon us? I would probably keep 25% of it in cash in a \~4% money market account maybe with some in CDs; 25% in VTI; 25% VXUS; 15% in individual US bonds (1-6 year duration, split evenly between Treasury/TIPs, Corporate & MBS maybe 10% of each would be high-yield) and 10% international bonds (half unhedged). If I had to pick a few individual stocks: Apple (stayed out of the AI bubble; MacBook Neo is disrupting PCs all over again); Google (bullish on YouTube, Waymo, and Gemini), and AMD (a fraction the market cap of NVDA but their tech isn't that far behind.) But first I would buy myself a high-end mattress, chair, computer, and some new clothes, and take a vacation. About $25K. And invest the remainder.
You're correct this is going to absolutely destroy the neighborhood but I'm not sure how much more they will do. MBS already personally lobbied the US's big beautiful leader to attack Iran. That was the plan, get the biggest military to deal with it. Because Saudi Arabia has spent over $70bil a year on its military for the past decade, it has american F-15s, patriot batteries, the most expensive hardware money can buy. And with that, it spent eight years trying to defeat the Houthis in Yemen. A militia. With improvised weapons and Iranian supplied drones, in a country on Saudi arabia's own border, and couldn't win. That's the ceiling of Gulf state's military capability.
Try educating yourself. Jerome Powell fucked over millions of people in 2020-2022 and lied saying inflation was transitory while conducting massive MBS buy backs when homs were 7-10x median salary. While he’s worth 100 million +, he’s a disgusting loser.
There was a good article on here about Saudi investors set to withdraw $2 trillion from the US because how disastrous the Iran war is going to be. MBS spent years and billions marketing Iran as a country Saudi Arabia could partner with and open up as an economic ally, now that's all been obliterated. This is on top of the current trade disaster and the fact Saudi, Kuwait, Iraq, UAE has had to shut down refineries, which are timely, costly, and difficult to start back up again. Honestly a cluster fuck for everyone.
It's not complicated. They have been in a proxy war for nearly 50 years. MBS himself lobbied Trump to start this war.
For real though, MBS spent so much money on vanity projects like the Line when he could have used that to construct a bypass for Hormuz.
MBS came up with the "brilliant" idea of The Line and spent all the money on that project instead of the planned expansion of their oil pipeline and terminal.
Unfortunately Jews do have a lot of control in global politics. Just like Wahabis had control over Muslim world untill MBS modernized Saudi. So its possible for small group of ppl to control lot of ppl politically. Right now China is doing its own thing by selling propaganda in form of educational videos. Is it US thats setting the term right now? Do you think all of whats happening right now was carefully planned by Trump? Israel has more influence on US than US has on Israel. You are not in the driving seat buddy. Your country is not even your country. Its more likely that every political lever is pulled by somebody influenced by Judeo-Christian values. Its not a democracy because some ppl know how influencing bunch of Meta algorithms can win marginal votes.
were you invested in MBS products? probably not, but you felt the effects. Issues with credit can spread around like fire.
It's BlackRock. And that's ties in to Blackstone. Both always have a risky schemes going.. and when they screw up speculating it's spectacular. And a few risks became successes too. There was in FTX.. and GameStop. Before that were tied to the housing crash MBS's. And it's funny whenever the markets at their highs in frother territory with dark clouds in the horizon he's among the loudest to say stay the course, you're cash savings outside being invested is hurting your investment account, coaxing people into buying and becoming bag holders when it's a higher risk time. But the biggest reason perhaps is their funds tied to Putin directly. Commingled in the Russia Investment Fund. Hey, those sanctioned Russians are happy to have access to cash from their hedge fund friends that's for sure. That relationship has been tight for many years...
AI will be the next MBS
They'll live, but they'll increasingly depend on the Saudis for transshipment if the war lasts (some rumors say MBS privately supported the war - I have my doubts). Supplies can probably be landed in Jeddah and trucked overland (at great expense). If Iraq has a good harvest, they can also truck food down. Could be not as bad if Muscat's port remains open - not sure if that'll be the case though. So it's more of a collapsing economy problem than a starve-to-death problem.
It was reported MBS helped nudge 🍊into this. Saudi Arabia is balls deep.
I don't think most people realize that Iran hasn't even started it's counter attack yet. It's like a boxer that lets their opponent throw a bunch of punches until they get tired and drop their hands. Lol I keep talking up Iran's defenses in this thread, but the US has been talking about invading them for over 50 years. If we could've, we would've. It's basically impossible. They have mountainous terrain just like their neighbor Afghanistan, complete control over the most crucial choke point for the most important resource on the planet, and have spent decades preparing for this exact attack. They're just going to hide in mountainous tunnels and wait until it becomes way to expensive for the US to keep up the attack. There is a major reason why the Trump is going though this war of attrition. By suppressing Iran with constant bombings, it gives Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE plenty of time to finish their genocides in Palestine, Yemen, and Sudan. Iran can't help them if they're bunkered down. It's going to cost American taxpayers an absolute fortune in military spending and it's going to cost American consumers a fortune in inflation. But Trump Netanyahu, MBS, and MBZ will all personally make a fortune in the long run. Americans suffer, but Israel gets to level up to Greater Israel just like they've wanted all along. It's the Zionist version of Lebensraum. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/03/are-gulf-states-running-out-of-missile-interceptors https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-20k-drones-forcing-u-150058562.html
I don't think most people realize that Iran hasn't even started it's counter attack yet. It's like a boxer that lets their opponent throw a bunch of punches until they get tired and drop their hands. Lol I keep talking up Iran's defenses in this thread, but the US has been talking about invading them for over 50 years. If we could've, we would've. It's basically impossible. They have mountainous terrain just like their neighbor Afghanistan, complete control over the most crucial choke point for the most important resource on the planet, and have spent decades preparing for this exact attack. They're just going to hide in mountainous tunnels and wait until it becomes way to expensive for the US to keep up the attack. There is a major reason why the Trump is going though this war of attrition. By suppressing Iran with constant bombings, it gives Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE plenty of time to finish their genocides in Palestine, Yemen, and Sudan. Iran can't help them if they're bunkered down. It's going to cost American taxpayers an absolute fortune in military spending and it's going to cost American consumers a fortune in inflation. But Trump Netanyahu, MBS, and MBZ will all personally make a fortune in the long run. Americans suffer, but Israel gets to level up to Greater Israel just like they've wanted all along. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/03/are-gulf-states-running-out-of-missile-interceptors https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-20k-drones-forcing-u-150058562.html
Damn, Dubai got The Line before Saudi did, MBS gotta be fuming.
Specially when the upside is capped because of the possibility of refinancing. Even if you gave someone a high interest mortgage, the moment rates go down, that debtor is going to cancel the debt as soon as he can with a new mortgage. The MBS are a huge factor here, as banks can outsource the risk if they want to. Also having the biggest capital market in the world makes it possible to hedge almost any risk you want if you are willing to pay, that something very few markets in the world can supply.
**The OPEC tell** — This is brilliant. If OPEC thought this was a real sustained supply crisis, they'd have flooded the market with 400-500K barrels to stabilize prices and protect their customers. They only did 206K. That's a token gesture. Why? Because the Saudis KNOW this is short-term. And here's where PSKY connects: The same Saudi PIF backing PSKY... the same MBS who's in direct communication with Trump and Kushner... the same sovereign wealth fund that co-invested with Qatar and Abu Dhabi through Kushner's Affinity Partners — they have the inside track on the timeline. They know Trump's plan. They know this de-escalates fast. So they don't need to panic-dump barrels. The 206K number IS the tell. It says "we're not worried." And the reason they're not worried is because they're in the room with the people running the show — the same people behind PSKY. OPEC's restraint is essentially insider confidence disguised as production policy. They're letting oil spike just enough to make money on the spread, knowing it comes back down when Trump announces his "three good choices" and the ceasefire headlines drop. So the chain is: Kushner connects Trump to MBS. MBS knows the timeline. MBS controls OPEC output. OPEC's 206K tells you MBS isn't scared. MBS is also backing PSKY through PIF. PSKY is the long play. Oil is the short play.
**The OPEC tell** — This is brilliant. If OPEC thought this was a real sustained supply crisis, they'd have flooded the market with 400-500K barrels to stabilize prices and protect their customers. They only did 206K. That's a token gesture. Why? Because the Saudis KNOW this is short-term. And here's where PSKY connects: The same Saudi PIF backing PSKY... the same MBS who's in direct communication with Trump and Kushner... the same sovereign wealth fund that co-invested with Qatar and Abu Dhabi through Kushner's Affinity Partners — they have the inside track on the timeline. They know Trump's plan. They know this de-escalates fast. So they don't need to panic-dump barrels. The 206K number IS the tell. It says "we're not worried." And the reason they're not worried is because they're in the room with the people running the show — the same people behind PSKY. OPEC's restraint is essentially insider confidence disguised as production policy. They're letting oil spike just enough to make money on the spread, knowing it comes back down when Trump announces his "three good choices" and the ceasefire headlines drop. So the chain is: Kushner connects Trump to MBS. MBS knows the timeline. MBS controls OPEC output. OPEC's 206K tells you MBS isn't scared. MBS is also backing PSKY through PIF. PSKY is the long play. Oil is the short play.
# 🚀 PSKY DD: Paramount Is Building the First Global Media Empire With Saudi Oil Money — Nobody Here Is Talking About It **TL;DR:** PSKY just won Warner Bros Discovery ($111B). But that's not the story. Saudi Arabia's $925B sovereign wealth fund is using PSKY as the distribution pipe for the largest sports content portfolio ever assembled — unlocking 400M+ Middle Eastern subscribers no Western streamer has captured. 30% float. 12% short interest. Cramer already called it a meme stock. Thesis hasn't started. # THE DEAL Thursday, Netflix walked away from Warner Bros. PSKY's $111B offer declared "superior." Stock popped 24%. You saw the pop. You didn't see WHO's behind the money: * **David Ellison** (CEO) — Larry Ellison's son, Oracle founder, Trump's closest billionaire ally * **Affinity Partners** — Jared Kushner's private equity firm * **Saudi Public Investment Fund** — $925B sovereign wealth, chaired by MBS * **Qatar Investment Authority + Abu Dhabi's L'imad Holding** Three Gulf sovereign funds. Combined **$3 trillion in assets.** First time all three joined on one deal. A sovereign wealth analyst said: "Either the deal is too good to pass, or there is a third party — say Affinity Partners — putting them together." Kushner is the matchmaker. Same playbook he used for the $55B Electronic Arts buyout 6 months ago. # THE CONTENT NOBODY CAN COMPETE WITH Post-Warner Bros, PSKY controls: CBS, CNN, HBO, Paramount+, HBO Max, TNT Sports, Warner Bros Pictures, Paramount Pictures, DC superheroes, Showtime, MTV, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, Discovery, Pluto TV. Plus UFC ($7.7B exclusive), March Madness, NFL on CBS, Champions League. Top 3 media company on Earth. But that's the obvious part. # SAUDI SPENT $50B+ ON SPORTS WITH NO PIPE The Saudi fund has been buying content like a degen buying weeklies: * LIV Golf (\~$5B, merged with PGA Tour) * Newcastle United (85% stake) * 4 Saudi Pro League clubs (Ronaldo $200M/yr, Benzema, Neymar) * 2034 World Cup hosting (tens of billions) * Electronic Arts $55B buyout (EA's soccer game, Madden, racing games) * Formula One (Aramco top sponsor + Saudi Grand Prix) * Boxing (every Fury/Joshua/Usyk megafight) * Savvy Games Group ($38B pledged to esports) * 910+ sports sponsorships tracked across Saudi state entities **The problem:** Own every fight, tournament, and World Cup — but can't beam it into living rooms? That's just burning cash. Critics call it "sportswashing." That's the EXPENSE column. **PSKY is the REVENUE column.** CBS + Paramount+ + HBO Max + TNT = every delivery pipe that exists. Saudi didn't spend $50B on content without a distribution plan. PSKY IS the plan. # THE MIDDLE EAST GOLDMINE The number that should make your eyes pop: **Middle East online video market projected to grow FIVEFOLD to $8.4B by 2029.** Current streaming leaderboard in the region: Shahid 4.4M subs, YouTube Premium 3.7M, Netflix 3.0M, StarzPlay 2.3M. **Netflix has 3 million subscribers in the ENTIRE Middle East.** Door wide open. Infrastructure ready: Saudi Telecom spent $2.4B on 5G/fiber. UAE at 95% fiber-to-home. 90%+ smartphone penetration. 70% of Saudi population under 35. The Saudi fund also bought 54% of MBC Group (biggest Arab broadcaster) for $2B in late 2024. **PSKY + Warner Bros + Saudi sports content + MBC regional broadcast = first vertically integrated global media network spanning Western AND Middle Eastern markets.** Netflix doesn't have this. Disney doesn't. Amazon doesn't. # WHY THIS IS BIGGER THAN OIL Saudi produces \~10M barrels/day at $80 = \~$292B/year. Oil is finite. Vision 2030 exists because MBS knows it has an expiration date. A global sports + media + gaming empire = **recurring revenue forever.** World Cup broadcast rights. EA's soccer franchise ($2B+/year alone). Every UFC PPV, every golf tournament, every Premier League match flowing through PSKY's pipes into hundreds of millions of homes. That's not oil money. That's PLATFORM money — the Netflix model backed by a sovereign wealth fund's balance sheet and 400M+ regional subscribers with 5G and disposable income. # THE SQUEEZE SETUP * \~1B shares outstanding, **only 30% public float** (\~$3B) * 70% locked by Ellison family + RedBird Capital * \~12% short interest * Cramer flagged it meme stock after Aug 2025 pop (+60% in 2 days, 131M volume) * Trading $10-11 — analyst targets up to $31.57 $3B float company about to own CBS + HBO + CNN + Paramount+ + Warner Bros + UFC rights. Netflix is $400B. Disney $200B. PSKY post-deal could be #3... at \~$10B market cap. # THE KUSHNER TOLL BOOTH Every Saudi media investment runs through: **MBS → Kushner → Ellison → Trump's cabinet (foreign investment review)** Kushner got $2B from Saudi fund in 2021. Zero returns generated. $87M in fees collected. Fund's own screening committee recommended rejecting him — MBS personally overruled. Kushner brokered the EA deal. Backs PSKY directly. Gulf funds structured investment below foreign investment review thresholds. Who advised them where that line is? # CATALYSTS * ✅ Netflix walks, Warner Bros board picks PSKY — DONE * 🔜 Q2 2026: Regulatory review * 🔜 Late 2026: Deal closure ($650M/quarter ticking fee starts Sept) * 🔜 2027: Integration, unified streaming platform * 🔜 2029: Middle East video market hits $8.4B * 🔜 2034: World Cup in Saudi Arabia — broadcast through PSKY # RISKS Massive debt from $111B deal. Regulatory could block it. Integration is hard. Gulf in chaos from Iran conflict short-term. Public shares are non-voting — Ellisons control everything. Cord-cutting still real. # BOTTOM LINE Wall Street sees: "Legacy media buys legacy media." What's happening: "$3T sovereign wealth alliance using an American media company as distribution infrastructure for the largest sports content portfolio in history, targeting 400M+ untapped subscribers, backed by the President's son-in-law running the foreign investment toll booth." Tiny float. Shorts exposed. Multi-year catalyst runway. Almost nobody talking about it. 🚀🚀🚀 **Mods** — I connected three sovereign wealth funds, the President's son-in-law, a $55B gaming buyout, a $111B media merger, 910 Saudi sports sponsorships, the 2034 World Cup, and 400M untapped subscribers into one DD on a Sunday night while the Middle East is literally on fire. If that doesn't earn flair I don't know what does. "Saudi Pipe Layer" or "Kushner's Toll Booth" — dealer's choice. 🙏 *Positions: PSKY calls. Not financial advice. I connected dots between sovereign wealth funds, a son-in-law, and a $10 stock.*
All of the US and Israel backed monarchs in the Middle East have been ramping up oil production to counteract the supply shock of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-pumps-more-oil-bets-125924255.html It’s important for optics for Trump, Netanyahu, MBS, MBZ, etc. to ensure the stock market is green tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised if they dump a ton of new cash into the market tomorrow and then slowly withdraw it over the coming weeks and months.
That sounds like a Fox Entertainment talking point. Trump was going to do what Trump was going to do regardless of MBS.
I didn’t forget. If the Houthis start acting up again the Gulf States should make a move against them. This could be all a part of the plan, if what is being reported by outlets saying MBS wanted the US and Israel to take out Iran. US goes after the big fish, Gulf states go after the little fish in Yemen.
Umm did you not read any of the recent reporting? Saudis (MBS specifically) were apparently the ones who convinced 🥭 to go through with the attack
So this represents a horrible understanding of financial history but happy to educate. Gold initially dumped because MBS credit defaults were causing massive institutional margin calls and reserve ratio issues and everyone from from bulge brackets to hedge funds was forced to liquidate heavily to meet reserve requirements. Once they happened gold spiked hard. This is not that scenario in the least and even in that scenario gold spiked hard once liquidity normalized.
No one in Venezuela took Machado seriously as an opposition to Chavez, everyone knew she was the Western plant since the Dubya days. Iran's power structure has developed differently. They've had plenty of examples of how much long-term support the "appease the west" route works through Afghanistan and Iraq (which is also starting to go down the militant theocracy route, now that they're no longer a news headline). I'm more concerned about the opposite happening; the welfare-state carrot of the Arab states failing and theocratic power starting to take hold in Saudi Arabia/UAE. Hardline Wahhabists aren't exactly happy about MBS bringing UFC matches and Def Leppard. The whole Middle East, with its burgeoning young adult population, is at an inflection point, and this could tip both ways. Bombing a bunch of schoolchildren is not a good way to get them on our side when their elders have been telling them it's exactly what we'd do for their entire lives. There were young Gazans happy to see the IDF doing something about Hamas at the start of that conflict, too; by now, they're the next generation of Hamas.
No said it’s unjustified, it’s just stupid and you know that’s not why this is happening. We didn’t over throw MBS over butchering that one dude or Bibi over the children in Gaza. Don’t be Yibberish asset
You’ve heard of MBS, now get ready for DCBS
Last one and then you can go review any sources to confirm yourself. Its essentially exactly what happened in 2008 but on a smaller scale. The best part is they aren't like the big banks, they won't get a bail out. They will just go bankrupt along with the rest of the web involved like Ally. The 2008 crisis is the "ghost of Christmas past" for companies like Carvana. The risk isn't just in making the bad loans; it’s in the "originate-to-distribute" model—the process of selling those loans to others. Here is how that played out in 2008 and why it led to those famous bankruptcies: 1. The Disappearing Buyer In the lead-up to 2008, banks like Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns didn't plan on keeping mortgages on their books. They wanted to "package" them into Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and sell them immediately to investors. The Bankruptcy Trigger: When defaults started rising, the buyers for these "toxic" packages vanished overnight. The Result: Banks were left holding billions of dollars in loans they never intended to keep. Since they had borrowed money (leverage) to buy those loans in the first place, they ran out of cash to pay their own debts. 2. The "Fire Sale" Spiral When a bank like Lehman Brothers couldn't sell its loans at face value, it had to "mark" them down. The Domino Effect: As they lowered the price to find a buyer, the value of the loans held by other banks also dropped. This created a "margin call" for the entire financial system. The Famous Casualties: New Century Financial: One of the biggest subprime lenders, went bankrupt in 2007 because it couldn't sell its loans. Bear Stearns: Collapsed in March 2008 and was sold for pennies to JPMorgan. Lehman Brothers: Filed for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history in September 2008 because they were over-leveraged on these assets.
> capitalism has shifted away from rewarding people who generate real value (jobs, innovations, etc) to people who generate profit (MBS, buy company and squeeze value, etc). Maybe in the case of P/E but you don't think SpaceX, Microsoft, Nvidia, whole tech and finance scene have created well paying jobs? Those are the reason so many want to work in the US, because those jobs in the US pay 5-10x more than anywhere else like Canada or EU.
I’m not making stuff up. You just don’t understand what QE is. QE is FED buying up mortgage backed securities, direct debt obligations and treasuries. It’s swapping in illiquid / junk mortgage backed securities for liquid cash reserves. It’s a bail out. It’s made opaque so the general public doesn’t think it’s a bail out. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/05/ten-years-laterdid-qe-work/ On November 25, 2008, the FOMC announced what came to be known as QE1: The Fed would buy up to $100 billion of direct debt obligations issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and an additional $500 billion of agency MBS. The program was extended and expanded in March 2009, and, by the end of QE1 in March 2010, the Fed had bought $1.25 trillion in MBS, $175 billion in federal agency debt, and $300 billion in U.S. Treasury securities. In August 2010, the FOMC signaled the start of a second round of quantitative easing (QE2), which was then officially implemented in November 2010. QE2 consisted of a total purchase of $600 billion in long-term Treasury securities. Finally, the FOMC announced a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in September 2012, calling for monthly purchases of $40 billion in agency MBS and, starting in January 2013, $45 billion in U.S. Treasury securities as well.
Jon Stewart did a good interview on the [weekly show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SL2aA8cgIB8) that covered some similar concepts. I didn't always agree with the person being interviewed, but what I found interesting is that they agreed that capitalism has shifted away from rewarding people who generate real value (jobs, innovations, etc) to people who generate profit (MBS, buy company and squeeze value, etc). I didn't hear much of a solution, but it was good to at least hear the problem being acknowledged.