PPI

Valkyrie_Skuld

The 14th we have CPI 15th we have PPI and retail sales

spendology

Wednesday: CPI, Thursday: PPI and Manufacturing stats

GradePending

CPI and PPI will never be the same without Rick’s loud-ass voice yelling at 8:31 AM.

soulsoda

Biden administration cooked nothing. Idiots reading the wrong index and thinking it's a gotcha. In the CPI calculation, housing costs are weighted heavily on rent and owners' equivalent rent (what it costs to live in the home monthly), which react much slower than raw material spikes. It doesn't matter if new construction costs an additional 30k in lumber, rents and value of current houses aren't going to suddenly jump up to reflect that. Individual Consumers aren't buy industrial quantities of wood on a yearly basis so you wouldn't want it to take up a bigger slice in for consumer indexes anyways... It'd be stupid. Meanwhile the government did report 121% rise in the cost of lumber within 1 year time span during covid in the **Producer Price Index (PPI)**. Their data also captured up to 400% price increases between peaks of valleys of lumber pricing over that time period. I.e. The government’s 10–15% figures weren't an attempt to deny that lumber had tripled; they were an average of your entire lifestyle cost, meaning the isolated explosion of lumber prices is mathematically watered down by things that didn't change nearly as drastically at the exact same time (like your phone bill, your health insurance, or your clothes).

Luna_Wolfxvi

It's technically correct but measures a very specific thing that isn't representative of how life works. For example, the housing portion of CPI/PCE tries to estimate how much it would cost to rent the average home, not the cost of buying the average home. So the housing portion of CPI and PCE doesn't directly include the effect of interest rates on new mortgages and lags substantially because rents for existing renters take a while to catch up to new ones. IMO, PPI does a much better job of identifying if inflation is high or low but it is more volatile.

Ok-Price-8704

Depends on if you believe the news, rampant hoeflation is a serious concern and my PPI is definitely getting touched by a cheap foreigner

NotedFace

It seems like the bond market doesn't believe official data anymore, which sounds nuts but its the only way to explain the divergence in yields from breakeven rates which would only price in expectations for the official rate. That narrative doesn't make any sense of why bonds would suddenly be melting down, which implies a loss in confidence in current yields providing good a good return. You have also have retail sales and consumer data "strong" but also high PPI inflation but no passthrough which both can't be true. The math ain't mathin and the market is starting to figure it out.

No_Presentation9490

wtf do you mean no bad news, PPI was way hotter than expected and we basically had a failed 5year bond auction

throwaway9gk0k4k569

I don't think they will wait. I think they could do back to back raise. The next FOMC meeting is in 36 days. The next CPI/PPI reading is out Wednesday, Oct. 14. I bet the market freaks out the week before, so a selloff on the 7th-9th. Then dooms until FOMC meeting and elections. Too much crazy stuff going on. Earnings will really be wild.

Marsh005

I held META for 2 years averaged down may times. My average was 610 and sold it beginning this month at 615 thinking the stock will come down because of big events like CPI. PPI and fed rate decision..now it is at 750 wish I held those which would cover some of my loses

WirePalladinSFO

Totally agree, I was short OEX put options on 1987 Black Monday. It had been working for quite a while until it didn't - a very expensive lesson (but I learned it well). Now I trade SPX 0DTE naked strangles (in those days they didn't have daily options). Lessons learned: (1) only trade 0DTE to eliminate the overnight tail risk, (2) don't trade until the market has been open 2 hours to see trading range and be sure your wings are outside of the day high and low, (3) use symmetric strangles around spot price with around +/- 10 deltas, (4) if one side gets challenged immediately roll out that side as far as you can to the next day and still collect a credit, (5) do not let a challenged side go ITM, roll as soon as your strike is touched. (5) do not trade on "catalyst" days (eg. Fed meeting, CPI, PPI etc.). Happy options trading - good luck!

one_day_I_will_do_69

In defense of this approach (as a numbers guy myself), forecasting is flipping hard, go look at a chart of inflation expectations and actual; most of the time it's out to lunch. Looking at what the line is doing isn't as bad of an approach, telling us the lines he's looking at is likely to be leaked and it will look something like PPI, CPI, and general sentiment.  I was at an aeso presentation recently and one justification for actions was "in 25 years we forecast issues" I can't wait to see how close those numbers play out in 5 let alone 20 years. 

takashi-kovak

Not necessarily a fan but Warsh is behaving what he said he will do. Provide zero future guidance on rates. This was a good/bad previous Fed where they gave rate guidance and when numbers didn't read that way CPI/PPI, they turned the course. This impacted the markets heavily and made it rate dependent (makes sense as risk-free rate is the defacto comparable to all equities and also ability to borrow money) Having said that, I think Warsh was lot thinner on content today. Either the questions weren't adapted to his style of conversation (and he did mention that press will adapt accordingly going forward) and/or he doesn't have the full context as he still onboarding. Either ways, interesting times.

ButtholeAnalogy

Suck on my PPI

Chance-Albatross7809

This has happened every time before PPI or CPI come in hot they know whats coming and prepare for it to cause the least damage

Jerikolol

its as real as CPI, PPI numbers etc

cryptopolymath

Bonds at 5.35%, oil above $105 a barrel, PPI at 5.4%, ain’t nothing stopping this train…

Spy300

Warsh told this market in his very first press conference he is redefining inflation to PCE Trimmed Mean >The inflation task force is examining how the Fed measures price stability, questioning traditional gauges like the CPI and PPI, and looking beyond standard core PCE estimates [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/fed-chairman-kevin-warsh-inflation-credibility-test-analysis.html)

remilk123

:screech: YOU CAN'T FIGHT FATE! THIS IS BOUND TO HAPPEN! HORRIBLE PPI! HORRIBLE CPI! 🐻IRAN WAR HAS BECOME A FOREVER WAR WITH NO END IN SIGHT! 💣🔥KEVIN WARSH IS GOING TO HIKE INTEREST RATES BY A MASSIVE 💯 POINTS! 🏦📈MICRON’S EARNINGS CALL WILL BE A DOUBLE MISS OF -99%! GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN!!! 🚨💀

Beneficial-Age-9293

I didn't understand why Friday was up.   CPI wasnt that good, and all the numbers we got Thursday were bad (bond rates, oil rise, PPI increase, etc.).

Spy300

The inflation task force recommendations are likely announced Wednesday, causing the fed to hold, since PCE Trimmed Mean is running at 2.3%. >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN >WARSH: I THINK WE'LL GET TASK FORCE BREIFINGS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER >Rethinking Metrics: The inflation task force is examining how the Fed measures price stability, questioning traditional gauges like the CPI and PPI, and looking beyond standard core PCE estimates [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/fed-chairman-kevin-warsh-inflation-credibility-test-analysis.html) >Trimmed mean PCE inflation rate — an alternative measure of core inflation from @DallasFed — was 2.3% for the 12 months ending in July [[2]](https://x.com/stlouisfed/status/2092804315379286253)

Soffatjockis

Most likely. And it would send gold and yields to the moon. And since I'm betting on gold, I expect this scenario. The FED will claim the latest CPI/PPI data is not enough for a hike and that oil prices is driving inflation and that the war ending will return everything to normal.

Special_Mirror_5095

The comment above about staring at the third coffee is exactly how it goes lol. What ended up working for me: the BLS release calendar (they publish the exact CPI/PPI/jobs dates months ahead, so nothing sneaks up on you), the Fed's own site for FOMC dates and the dot plot, and FRED if you want the actual data series instead of a headline. The investing.com calendar you mentioned is fine for a quick glance. For YouTube I mostly watch recaps after the close rather than live streams — during the session it's 90% noise imo. Honestly, reading the actual BLS or Fed release takes ten minutes and beats every summary of it. After a while you notice almost everything flows from like five things: jobs, CPI, oil, the 10-year, and whatever the Fed says. If those five are calm, the rest is just vibes.

Spy300

There is a large chance the inflation task force recommendations are announced Wednesday, causing the fed to hold, since PCE Trimmed Mean is running at 2.3%. >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN >WARSH: I THINK WE'LL GET TASK FORCE BREIFINGS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER >Rethinking Metrics: The inflation task force is examining how the Fed measures price stability, questioning traditional gauges like the CPI and PPI, and looking beyond standard core PCE estimates [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/fed-chairman-kevin-warsh-inflation-credibility-test-analysis.html) >Trimmed mean PCE inflation rate — an alternative measure of core inflation from @DallasFed — was 2.3% for the 12 months ending in July [[2]](https://x.com/stlouisfed/status/2092804315379286253)

Spy300

There is a large chance the task force inflation recommendations are announced Wednesday, causing the fed to hold, since PCE Trimmed Mean is running at 2.3%. >WARSH: I THINK WE'LL GET TASK FORCE BREIFINGS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER >Rethinking Metrics: The inflation task force is examining how the Fed measures price stability, questioning traditional gauges like the CPI and PPI, and looking beyond standard core PCE estimates [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/fed-chairman-kevin-warsh-inflation-credibility-test-analysis.html) >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN >Trimmed mean PCE inflation rate — an alternative measure of core inflation from @DallasFed — was 2.3% for the 12 months ending in July [[2]](https://x.com/stlouisfed/status/2092804315379286253)

Spy300

WARSH: I THINK WE'LL GET TASK FORCE BREIFINGS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER >Rethinking Metrics: The inflation task force is examining how the Fed measures price stability, questioning traditional gauges like the CPI and PPI, and looking beyond standard core PCE estimates [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/fed-chairman-kevin-warsh-inflation-credibility-test-analysis.html) Beyond to.... PCE Trimmed Mean! >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN There is a large chance the task force inflation recommendations are announced Wednesday, causing the fed to hold, since PCE Trimmed Mean is running at 2.3%. >Trimmed mean PCE inflation rate — an alternative measure of core inflation from @DallasFed — was 2.3% for the 12 months ending in July [[2]](https://x.com/stlouisfed/status/2092804315379286253)

Spy300

>WARSH: I THINK WE'LL GET TASK FORCE BREIFINGS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER >Rethinking Metrics: The inflation task force is examining how the Fed measures price stability, questioning traditional gauges like the CPI and PPI, and looking beyond standard core PCE estimates [[1]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/fed-chairman-kevin-warsh-inflation-credibility-test-analysis.html) Beyond to.... PCE Trimmed Mean! >WARSH: MY PREFERRED INFLATION MEASURE IS PCE TRIMMED MEAN There is a large chance the task force inflation recommendations are announced Wednesday, causing the fed to hold, since PCE Trimmed Mean is running at 2.3%. >Trimmed mean PCE inflation rate — an alternative measure of core inflation from @DallasFed — was 2.3% for the 12 months ending in July [[2]](https://x.com/stlouisfed/status/2092804315379286253)

Parking_Reputation17

PPI was in line with expectations though

Parking_Reputation17

August PPI report was in line with expectations, even with higher oil prices.

_AT198

Maybe in a different macro environment. Too many negative catalysts in the way. PPI,CPI,FOMC… Oil at $100, Bonds at 5%. Going to sell off into FOMC announcement and maybe get a bounce, but not a 40% bounce in a week. l

theIndianFyre

CME Fedwatch tool puts hike chances at 86% as of today, CPI came in hotter, and PPI came in hotter too, its not looking good for holds

StrangeInsanity

This market is purely sentiment driven at this point. There is literally no reason to believe in CPI or PPI numbers. If you were to plot commodity price increase from a year ago vs a CPI prints, we will be looking at something that is completely different in terms of price increases.

phungus420

OK, but why did it drop so hard with PPI. My port drew down way worse yesterday from that then the small positions in shorts I took yesterday. I've just never seen the market reverse so hard on the same exact news, that's what bothers me. I mean sure I'm bitter losing money going short and long, but on the same damn news is infurating. Normally I take my licks, but today's and yesterday's price action combined makes no damned sense to me. I could understand if price action held today or rallied slightly, but it ripped over 1% off the low overnight, and the CPI print, which was pretty much the same as yesterday's PPI print that caused a big drop, just rallied upward over half a percent on the Qs. If you really think the Fed holds steady then I'm guessing you're going long PMs? If not I'd question your conviction there. Also polymarket bet is giving incredible odds if you have real confidence there.

phungus420

Dumped on PPI and ripped on CPI when they both printed the same, and CPI was arguably worse. I'm with you OP, today's rally is the most insane thing I've seen over the past few years trading. I mean the market is irrational all the time, but the sea-saw between PPI and CPI when they were nearly identical prints makes no sense, especially since it rallied so much fiercer than it dropped. I don't know if anything can break this market. It's just perpetually bullish with a very slight pullbacks every few months, usually caused by news that in previous years would have caused a crash.

RagingBearBull

I looked at the CPI, PPI and I still think we are getting rate cuts. This is not because of the data, but simply because Kevin Warsh does not want to get deported to africa. he is slender and very supple, he donest wnat to risk having his anus violated.

cbusoh66

It's March 2027, inflation running at 36% annual rate Market headlines: PPI/CPI/PCE rose 4% MoM, AS EXPECTED!

Own-Recipe5908

PPI left little room to cook, would've been bad no matter what.

atrox3838

Core coming in on the screws is bullish no because PPI was kinda hot. Need CPI to be +0.3% to be actually bearish

Own-Recipe5908

Cooler print would be bearish, since with the PPI it would mean less corporate profit.

cbusoh66

Imagine Warsh caring about fake PPI/CPI/PCE when daddy breathing down his neck to CUT RATES

atrox3838

I like the first version -- if there is a way to incorporate estimated values into the events i.e. CPI, PPI -- that would be dope. Or a separate tab for the prints where we can see some data about the previous print and the estimates for the upcoming.

Soffatjockis

Inflation always hits PPI first, so naturally the CPI will come in cool. ...and it's also cooked, so there's that too

Mr-Lungu

My feeling is no hike with a 7-5 split so they can claim to be independent without actually being so. And a strong hawkish statement with it. CPI will look good for them when it comes out. There will be some obfuscation and they will find some narrative to support their decision. I mean. Truly maybe there is. PPI figures already showed people are cutting back on spending in the service lines.

DependentPangolin818

Trust me bros, CPi data will come in cool, rate hike odd FUD will continue throughout today spreading doubt, retail has been feared to buy the lows due to ongoing FUD and PPI scare, Weekend sell off will continue despite relief rally, then Mango will declare War is ending soon and the iran has been defeated early next week shortly after more FUD will continue across the media, then the FED will HOLD and ATH's will be hit, retail as always will be FOMOing at the top, Iran war will continue to cool as mid terms near, however volatility will be present late October, Trump will win Mid terms and Markets will SOAR! Trust me bros

eugene_p555

And know when to trade and when not to trade options. Especially as a beginner, do not trade options around major macro events (PPI yesterday, CPI today, Fed rate decision next week, Clarity Act hearing, etc.)

uncurious

PPI was hot. Saying CPI will be cold is the same as saying producers swallowed the cost and didn’t pass them to the customer. You buy things at the store ya? Notice prices have gone up?

DependentPangolin818

Someone should of told me in June when I "invested" in AI tech stocks, so called Macro events affect the market, bloody joke, CPI, PPI, how about the fed SMD?

TrickyDickCheney

It’s probably already begun which is why PPI keeps coming in below expectations

jasperCrow

Nikkei and Kospi both shitting. Japan PPI came in way hotter than expected. CPI tomorrow should be pure cinema 🍿

Parking_Reputation17

PPI got released today and was in line with expectations, and the report acknowledged the vast majority of inflationary pressure was oil prices.

SoCallMeDeaconBlues1

It will be similar to the PPI print. Not good but not that bad. And they'll revise it later when it doesn't really matter anymore.

music_is_gud

I don't think the market went down coz of PPI today.

music_is_gud

PPI 5.4% CPI 1.2% 🥭 Logic 🤡

music_is_gud

Kospians are gonna dump like crazy tonight after that hot pile of a PPI report and BoE announcing more rate hikes

Specialist-Fox4700

worked for PPI and i think we can move lower for CPI

Samjabr

If you think they are going to hike, you might have downs. The rate is already 5% with higher commodity (oil), PPI, CPI, etc. What would be the point of hiking other than crushing the economy?

CantaloupeSea48

Well the Fed likes to base it's decision on PCE rather than PPI. Today's PPI may or may not affect the PCE, but rsing energy costs will. Go to the Cleveland Fed website "Inflation Nowcasting where you will see the PCE is inching up YOY and the core PCE jumped. .25-.50

Sebastian-S

God does OP realize what’s happening in the macro environment with headline PPI coming in a bit hotter today, CPI tomorrow and possible rate hike next week? And why a Monday expiration where theta will be eating at this all weekend? I’m bullish too which is why I sold long dated puts but this is a Hail Mary

ProbablyUrNeighbour

The only thing that matters is CPI/PPI. There’s nothing much to talk about unless you’ve got insider info there.

mighty_sys_admin

PPI tells us everything we need to know about CPI. Worst case already accounted for. Calls :)

NoAbbreviations1653

Fuck your CPI, Rate Hike, PPI data crap. Wallahi when I break even I’m selling all my shares. Fuck off

Dear__Bruce

PPI won’t make or break fed decision and it’s a Thursday. You can’t get 0dte’s to pump and drain. Has to be a Friday for volatility

Chance-Albatross7809

but why not cook both? it makes no sense to only cook one since they dont care about image anyway. and PPI does still matter lol

SoCallMeDeaconBlues1

No. We saw PPI. CPI won't be better, it'll either tell the same story or it'll be worse. That, and go look at CL1- or USO- or whatever. Just about every stock in existence is touched by the price of diesel or gas at some point. If it's shipped by any method, even more so. The time to exit those calls was yesterday afternoon. Of course, anything's possible- even if highly unlikely.

remilk123

:screech: YOU CAN'T FIGHT FATE! THIS IS BOUND TO HAPPEN! HORRIBLE PPI! HORRIBLE CPI! 🐻IRAN WAR HAS BECOME A FOREVER WAR WITH NO END IN SIGHT! 💣🔥KEVIN WARSH IS GOING TO HIKE INTEREST RATES BY A MASSIVE 💯 POINTS! 🏦📈MICRON’S EARNINGS CALL WILL BE A DOUBLE MISS OF -99%! GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN!!! 🚨💀

defordj

I seem to recall you saying the same thing about PPI yesterday

Affectionate-Idea690

PPI higher is Driven by a 4.2% jump in energy,,, lololololololololol

Razvanell95

I would like some 3 Michelin star PPI numbers with some hard boiled jobs numbers next please

-IQ200

PPI hot, they surprisingly didn’t cook the books. SPY free fall to 752 😈

apeserveapes

Watch the news, bloomberg, whatever, PPI high etc...

SHHFC

PPI higher, CPI higher, BRICS this weekend, Iran tensions not getting better, no deal on Ukraine/Russia, 10 year climbing, cmon now. short this shit

darkspherei

PPI looks like shit and thats after they cooked the books, puts on the USA

NobodySpecific2

PPI beat - green by close

Abdul-Wahab6

PPI just came in higher than expected

kirkegaarr

PPI came in hot. Honestly it didn't look that hot to me but rate hike odds moved up to 73% currently

Metsrock15

PPI Report was released today

dreggminster

higher oil -> PPI high -> interest high -> gold down

TurbTastic

PPI came out this morning, generally hawkish results for August. CPI comes out tomorrow. I think PCE is 1-2 weeks away yet.

Abdul-Wahab6

PPI came in hot

Sufficient_Habit5091

PPI mooning. I'm sure companies will not pass those costs onto us struggling consumers and just decrease profits instead.

Nuthousemccoy

5.4% PPI just came out

RichSpecific4490

Core PPI lower, why the dump?

GetDeepSignal

US stock futures fell and Treasury yields rose as investors upped bets on a Fed rate increase after PPI release coupled with ECB hike!

GetDeepSignal

US stock futures fell and Treasury yields rose as investors upped bets on a Fed rate increase after PPI release coupled with ECB hike!

Rav_3d

PPI hot. If CPI comes in hot tomorrow, welcome to the correction.

CUbuffGuy

V time =) PPI wasn't that bad actuually. Just gotta look through iran stuff

Ceyenne18

PPI - Yes. Up next: CPI ORCL FOMC

Razvanell95

Michelin level cooking of PPI, I hope the market eats it though

zorna0

# August US Core PPI Rises 0.2% Vs. Expected 0.3% Increase this is not hawkish

Own-Recipe5908

The problem is if CPI comes in low it means that companies are eating the cost increases by lowering margin. There isn't a good number for PPI like that.

Zealousideal_Book_40

PPI Deez nuts

_rockthemike

PPI

Overgrown_Dreams89

How was PPI?

fire_alarmist

Looks like the PPI report, Silver, Gold and IWM price action is signaling a 100% rate hike chance this next meeting Lol. Imagine being one of the absolute IDIOTS replying to me the past two months that there is no chance they hike rates. THEY DONT HAVE A CHOICE!

BerlinWallGloryhole

Sir, another high PPI print has hit the market.

Boring_Ad7277

*US AUG. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.4% *US AUG. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 5.4% Y/Y; EST. +5.3% *US AUG. CORE PPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3% *US AUG. CORE PPI RISES 4.6% Y/Y; EST. +4.6% nothingburger,

_hiddenscout

PPI 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.4% PPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PPI 5.4% YoY, Exp. 5.3% PPI Core 4.6% YoY, Exp. 4.6% Initial Claims 206K, Exp. 205K Cont Claims 1774K, Exp. 1780K

VTI4LYFE69

PPI 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.4% PPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PPI 5.4% YoY, Exp. 5.3% PPI Core 4.6% YoY, Exp. 4.6% Bearsfooked

YoDooley

PPI looking …. Bad

boose36

Yall think PPI is bad just wait for CPI tomorrow! Blood red inbound!