PPI

zasx20

Well the PPI is going down so that's means at least some of the "inflation" was transitory. The real issue is no one seems to get the difference between a price shock and inflation.

the_stormcrow

Thank you. Everyone trading like April PPI is going to be 2%

dee_berg

Okay, but CPI has been going down for months and PPI was negative. Most economists are predicting a shallow recession. Where is your fear mongering coming from?

95Daphne

No. 4% in the case of CPI, it was PPI in which I was referencing in which with the way it's going it might be "lucky to be above 3%" by the middle of 2023. It's quite possible it won't be. And if it's not and we have our "Volcker moment" of rates exceeding inflation...then yes, we saw our last upped dots in December. It just unfortunately took a bank failing for it to occur, as it really should've occurred regardless (I see no data that supports 50 bps or upped dots).

95Daphne

By dropping the ongoing increases wording from the statement. If you believe that inflation will continue to be terrible into June, then yeah, the dots will be upped then if things cool off with the banks (it's not likely FRC survives until then though, and they might not be alone), but it's not likely that team inflation will be right this time around then, and frankly they'll be lucky if headline CPI/PPI are above 4% and maybe even 3% on the PPI side respectively.

TradingBigMonies

Don’t use market orders for options during major market volatility events like CPI/PPI/FOMC

Th1ckCheeks

I've been buying a bit almost everyday since the SIVB situation, I'm 95% long and 5% cash. Although the last two CPI where not what I would've liked them to be, the last PPI was good tho. I still think this inflation will go away it's just that it's gonna take a couple more months that I originally expected. I expected rates to be cut in Q4 of 2023 but now, if it does, it's not gonna be because inflation is under control it will rather be because there is too much stress on the economy. That's my 2 cents, can't wait to see what PowPow has to say. What do you think? Are you guys Long? Short? Cash? Or only trading volatility? Watching netflix? Whats up?

UsedToHaveItAll

But you ignoring the big PPI beat, which is also a leading factor

Irreversible_Tide

Most likely bearish. Shows underconfidence in the path so far, especially combined with recent CPI/PPI, and that we might have to raise inflation target to 3% by year's end.

bearhunter429

The last PPI report pretty much shows that inflation is dead 🤌 JPow has no choice but to cut rates 🤌

Lintaglen

Don't forget the PPI stipulation that employers who took out loans must keep an employee quota. That includes hiring positions they never intended to fill.

VisualMod

>SOUTH KOREA (FEB) PPI (YOY) ACTUAL: 4.8% VS 5.1% PREVIOUS \>SOUTH KOREA (FEB) PPI (MOM) ACTUAL: 0.1% VS 0.4% PREVIOUS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-20 ^17:01:10 ^EDT-0400

tachyonvelocity

Still more chance for soft landing. Last PPI was actually lower than current Fed funds rate, so the hike cycle is almost over. It was also only Feb data and neither the even lower energy prices since then nor bank crisis leading to potential credit crunch and lending slowdown are in the data. So there is actually a real chance PPI will be negative in a few months as there is still 4% of base effects that need to run off. The "bank crisis" was caused not by a credit problem, like 2008, but by a bunch of VCs pulling money out of a specific bank, not to mention the unrealized losses at all the other banks are actually lower now that treasury yields have fallen, so it is yet to be seen if there will actually be systemic issues. A lower terminal rate will also reduce the likelihood of the hard landing if SVB turned out to be a one off.

Rare-ish_Bird

PPI was down, factory utilization down...buy when it turns up

bagacrap

Showing \*no\* signs is a bit of an exaggeration... PPI was mad low and leads by 1-2 months. Headline CPI less rent (which lags 9 months) is also very low. Bears and bulls alike can cherry pick the categories of inflation that best suit their narrative and MOM has a lot of noise due to weather and bad data, but overall headline CPI is way lower than a year ago and "long and variable lags" imply that the Fed shouldn't/can't wait till inflation is at 2% YoY before taking their foot off the brake pedal unless they want deflation (you may; they don't).

Irreversible_Tide

Friday I opened up a 2-month put spread on tech. I don't know when this collapses, but I feel like it's going to happen soon. Soft landing is officially dead if Jerome doesn't hike next week, especially with the most recent CPI and PPI data. I'll add to my long leg and might day-trade to capture the pump if he does halt or cut, but there's no way people don't start to smell the smoke in the next month if he stops fighting 6% inflation.

Tandittor

That was the change for CPI. I haven't checked for PPI, so I don't know. That methodology change actually made Feb and Mar CPI prints a little higher than they would've been with the previous methodology.

maltathecuddlefish

Also I think they recently changed how they calculate PPI didn’t they ? I seem to remember it being changed so it calculates based upon a smaller backward looking interval. I may be regarded here and misremembering tho.

Potential_Project_48

Powell knows he fucked up and fed announced that they're ready to provide liquidity at a moment's notice. IMO, JPow wants to pause, but he knows that if he does, it will freak out the financial system that things are worse than they are. So he will probably do a .25bps as planned, exactly as the ECB did, to show that there is nothing to worry about. But he will likely come out the most dovish you've ever seen him. He doesn't want the market to sell-off anymore when the whole financial system is teetering at the edge of a knife. Banking stocks have plummeted, he can't afford to push more at this moment. He probably wants a relief rally now, because at this moment, financial stability (prevent a total banking meltdown) is more important than inflation. He doesn't want to go down in history as the guy who broke the banks. So at the FOMC, he will probably mention how they have done the most aggressive fast paced rake hikes in history, they are doing 25bps, PPI has come in soft, the CPI in jan was one-off proved by this recent print 4bps lower, unemployment is ticking up as seen through claims data, there has been stress in the financial system, and so now the lag of the hikes effects are now finally starting to showing up, and because of that, they will pause right here and go data dependent.

aisleorisle

I don't think markets will crash when banks start hoarding cash. They are hoarding due to fear or insolvency during bank runs if more institutions keep failing, not because there are no good investments. They are prioritizing short-term bonds over other investments to keep liquidity. As far as investments that are beating inflation, off the top of my head, 0DTE and weekly options volumes are at all time highs and NDQ is up 13.4% YTD. I thought I read a headline about market makers posting record profits. That's not surprising. That being said, NO ONE is safe during a bank run... at least they weren't until the BTFP facility was put in place. Now, back to the market: if stock market movements around PPI, FOMC, Jobs reports, etc over the past year is any indication, a contracting US economy is bullish because it means we are winning the fight against inflation. It's been a year of slowly rising interest rates and the public at large understands why. I'm not going to go into a political rant about *why* inflation is so high but removing excessive liquidity from the economy is all part of the plan to fight inflation. If the banks hoard cash? Good. If there are less business/personal/real estate loans? Good. It means future us will still be able to have purchasing power.

polishjake

You are regarded for 0.5. Inflation is dropping like a rock. You seen PPI? You ve seen Oil price? You ve see. Uptick in unemployment? You are a regard.

grimkhor

Existing home sales fallen off a cliff and keep falling only thing that hold is new home sales. HELOC rates move with the Fed Funds Rate. So people that have those are feeling the pain and might break. It doesn't have to but there's a non zero chance. FED raising rates more hawkish while they currently fix an issue as a direct result in the process risking more issues in HELOCs and so on. They're also clear signs that inflation is coming down. PPI is a leading indicator here showing inflation to slow further. A more hawkish FED is beyond fantasy. [https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales)

2wand3r

Banking sector is fucked. But inflation isn’t. PPI was negative for the first time in awhile. PPI usually leads CPI. Nothing like a good old recession to curb demand. Leisure and unemployment are always the last to go. No surprise there. Question is how much of the pain is priced in earnings? $300 billion added to the Fed balance sheet as borrow not purchase reverse about 4 months of QT, but that money isn’t going to reflect in people’s wallets. It’s a liquidity crunch. Small banks pressure don’t extend to small business, commercial real estate, or industrials. = no growth = rise in unemployment. Welcome to the Fed induced recession.

tomyspam

First PPI came lower and now we are expecting the CPI comes lower is well

qwertyaas

Here's my thing. I'm not short nor am I holding any puts. Market going up is good for me. What I am concerned about is inflation creeping up everywhere. My expenses have skyrocketed over the last couple years. And I primarily shop at freaking Aldi/Lidl/Costco. Every week I go shopping, my bill goes up. School tuition goes up. Insurance goes up. Housing goes up. Everything is going up. Great, we're told PPI is cool and CPI was in-line. That doesn't fucking help since I don't buy used cars every other week, or medical supplies 12 months ago.

animositisomina35

We just saw the macro turn in my view which will likely mark the end of the bear market. •Bond yields crashed 25% increasing risk premium •PPI print coming in 15% lower (4.6 via 5.4) •FED/Gov stepped in to provide liquidity for banks •Balance sheet grew $300b last week offsetting QT •Interest rate terminal rate and cuts changed 180 degrees last week •Everyone thinking about 2008 and a massive crash We went from a lot more rates, more QT and higher inflation to lower inflation, cuts, easing and liquidity increase within a week. This can easily be seen as a big macro change that usually marks key turning points within markets. https://twitter.com/TheShortBear/status/1636485036043124741

ecco3k

My guess is good PPI data from yesterday mixed with the fact that no banks failed today. Also low jobless claims supports the narrative that inflation can go down without necessarily crushing jobs. Or it was just MM hedgies fucking the p00ts

bearhunter429

Last month's PPI came in negative We don't even have inflation anymore. We are in deflation as we speak.

bearhunter429

Low PPI print = check Companies still beating earnings = check Fed ready to pivot = check Economy still strong = check Imagine being a bear in these conditions. LMAO

mamine1992

Guys this is my assessment of things: CPI and PPI came in not hot, and the 50 BPS was essentially priced in when Powell spoke to Congress. What made markets go down? Bank crisis. What was said to be solved today? Bank crisis.

bearhunter429

Yesterday's PPI numbers prove that the war against inflation has been won and banks are saved too. There is nothing to stop this bull run now.

Rare-ish_Bird

I think the PPI took some pressure off and they'll do 25bps.

hmmm_

The ECB was a good bit behind the Fed in raising so has a bit more work to do. Quite an impressive performance from the ECB today actually, they are keeping their eye on the big issue (inflation), and not being influenced by what will turn out to be a minor problem (CS). The Fed might be influenced by them, but I suspect after PPI this week they will feel that things are moving in the right direction and no need to over-tighten (so .25% at most).

igotthis_man

We got alright CPI a lot better PPI and good jobless claims. Course we gonna moon

Damerman

Bro, we did not price in .25 hike instead of .5, we did not price in CPI cooling and PPI cooling and we did not price in MS and JPM rescuing FRC… wheres my fuckin money?!

Damerman

Market still owes me 415 for the better than expected CPI and PPI…

Cute_Bedroom8332

Inflation is going to tank in the next 4 months. PPI number is tanking and import export prices are now negative year over year. Inflation is heading that way. For the last time... inflation was not caused by too much money in the system. It was caused by supply chain issues and fucking GREED..

Rang_Dipkin

PPI was COMPLETELY ignored and was very good and leading indicator of CPI

__WallstreetRetard__

We rallied on PPI and we rallied on banks being bailed out.

Tom-Frost

PPI lower DUMP, CPI on-track DUMP, Banks bailed out DUMP GDP Up DUMP, Productivity up DUMP, Commodities down for cheaper transportation of goods DUMP, inflation now going correct direction DUMP DUMP DUMP

SendBobsAndVegetas

This week, the US had decent inflation data from CPI to PPI. Overshadowed by banks, but it gives Powell wiggle room next week.

95Daphne

But the PPI read that isn’t contaminated with the ridiculous housing delay says that the Fed isn’t in bad shape on inflation. Look, at this point, if things don’t really calm down by next week, you might be lucky if rates aren’t left unchanged. The testimony from Powell came BEFORE the banking stuff came out (and before we got 4 data points that frankly, do support January being a seasonal adjustment and unseasonally warm issue over a reaccelerating inflation problem), and some of the stuff we’ve heard since then (even if it’s not from their mouth because of the blackout) should tell you that they’re quietly concerned (which they should be because regional banks are down to the amount of reserves they were in 2019 that triggered issues with banks, if you think this is a 1-3 bank thing, sorry it isn’t).

gaurav0792

People are going to learn very painfully how companies decide pricing. The difference between PPI and CPI is going to increase for a while.

FullCopy

CPI, PPI, PP, etc. none of that shit matters. JPow is out of juice and the government is bailing out the banks.

Droidvoid

He could point at PPI numbers and jobless claims going up in conjunction with an increase in labor participation and miss in wage growth expectations as well.

mcs5280

CPI: +0.4% PPI: -0.1% Who's pocketing the difference?

mcs5280

Bank bailouts left and right Cooked CPI Cooked PPI They are trying so hard prop it up it's almost pathetic

After-Coach-4405

Jpow, is this enough? DO YOU FINALLY SPARE ME FROM FINANCIAL RUIN? LOOK AT PPI YOU LITTLE KID! DOOOOO IT!

After-Coach-4405

Jpow, is this enough? DO YOU FINALLY SPARE ME FROM FINANCIAL RUIN? ​ LOOK AT PPI YOU LITTLE KID! DOOOOO IT!

seventeenthson

Except this can be almost entirely explained by shelter increases, which account for 70% of the core CPI rise in the latest report and is projected unanimously to fall later in the year as a lagging indicator, and as as the numbers take into account a new YoY baseline from Summer-Fall 2022, back when interest rates first started skyrocketing. Strip out shelter, and [core services inflation in February was 0.1%](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-solidly-february-2023-03-14/). Not to mention the incredible PPI miss that came out today (4.6 v 5.4 expected), and a downward revision of 0.4% to the January PPI that initially gave a huge boost to the notion that inflation was accelerating again. It takes a moment for drops in producer prices to be reflected in consumer prices, but the direction of movement is clear. Wage growth has also been slowing for the past 8 months. The banking crisis, even if no other banks fall, will likely lead to a pullback in lending as regional banks become less risk-averse and look to hold onto their funds in case of liquidity problems of their own. Shorter lending in a country that runs on credit, is undoubtedly going to weigh on aggregate demand, after retail sales already fell last month. I completely disagree with you, inflation is on its way down

vcn14

I guess the IV is much higher for this week's expiration than in a few weeks - that would make sense to me if there were a big event still to come before expiration (FOMC, CPI, PPI etc) but that's not the case here so I'm a little surprised at this.

Malamonga1

PPI is not the reason. I think it's actually the VERY weak NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. PPI has mostly goods inflation data, which isn't as important anymore.

Pura112

W/o the Saudis turning down CS, I wonder what that cool PPI would've done today.

CUTON1C

This could be true given the health of the banking industry and CPI and PPI coming either in-line or lower.

cartim33

Barely bothered trying to day trade off technicals today, market is trading on pure emotion. Only did a single trade of that got me a better than expected 1k. I'm always wary buying options when vix is this high, so I'm mostly just selling them. As for the rate hike, I was sure it would be 25bps even yesterday, but now I'm not so sure we don't get a pause for a month to let the fear ease off a bit before continuing at 25bps monthly until the same terminal rate. Even if its not their main metric, those PPI numbers were really cool and that CS news added more fear to an already scared sector.

Sweet_Scar487

Agreed, look at PPI over the last 2 years and it can be seen going positive and negative frequently.

kolt54321

Last month's PPI came in lower and this month's CPI still came in high (in line with expectations). Why don't we look at actual data vs leading indicators that may not be relevant?

InquiriusRex

PPI came in way lower.

Saaan

Bulls will be back sky pumping this market tomorrow on the overshadowed PPI numbers out today.....Puts orders at the ready. 

bearhunter429

Today's PPI report pretty much says inflation is ded

mamine1992

Not if you claim CPI and PPI are heading in the right direction after the last reports *wink*

mamine1992

If (I expect) CS gets a bail out or help from the Swiss government, I’d be very worried to hold outs against the market overnight. The other three pieces of news are: Lower than expected PPI, in as expected CPI, and a higher chance the fed pivots on rate hikes.

TicketsToPluto

Why aren’t we mooning if PPI was so cool

Paperhands_RC

You mean to say a shitty swiss bank known to be going under doing the same thing its been doing and an unremarkable PPI wasn't the end of the world? Color me shocked.

kolt54321

PPI last month came in low, but CPI this month came in as expected (high). And how is the Fed going to cause a recession if they opened up a fund guaranteeing liquidity to all banks? This is just fear mongering.

Boris_The_Unbeliever

PPI data (seen as a leading indicator for CPI) came out way below expectations this morning. Last month's PPI was adjusted downwards as well. Finally, NY manufacturing gauge fell sharply. We also know this: 1) Rate hike effects are delayed. 2) Housing data on inflation is delayed and will show moderation/contraction within then next 6 months. 3) Wage growth came out below expectations for FEB CPI. Given the total crisis in the banking sector, it would seem foolish for the FED to keep raising rates. If they overtighten to cause a massive recession/crisis then we'll only get stimulative policy again, which will lead to inflation *again* and I want to get off this wild ride. The FED needs to pause and see what's actually happening before going forward.

andrew7231

Dude PPI went down drastically and we dump this hard. Fake dump. Fuck the banks

GreenRedBlueGold

just remember American companies refused to lower prices in their greed even though PPI and CPI were dropping making life unaffordable for consumers

lawfish69

PPI was good. It was only a dumpster fire within a dumpster fire. Why is that so bad?

ian_v_t

PPI was good. Why aren’t we MoOniNg 

buridoloco

How are we not fucking gapping up over this news? Bank failures 100% contained Fed starting QE again and pausing rate hikes? PPI data came in better than expected. On the downside of inflation. Bond yields down should discourage flying to bonds from stocks?

Schwimmbo

Don't get me wrong, I'm a bear lol. I meant lucky because the market opened THAT red. Without CS the PPI could've caused another green day.

mamine1992

Seems like big fish are still digesting everything. On one hand bank runs are a risk, on the other with lower PPI and CPI at level there's a chance the Fed doesn't raise interest rates and allows the market to correct itself.

ImRayShoesmithsSmile

PPI is lower than expected guys! I'm about to open my port how green r we?

tachyonvelocity

Despite everybody watching CPI, PPI is quite important for future inflation as it leads future CPI because companies will always attempt to protect margin by raising prices. PPI going down extremely quickly bodes well for future inflation, as we see a 4.6% print today, CPI will likely be close some time in the near future if PPI keeps falling. Of course PPI prints are also volatile and less accurate, last month of 0.7% increase was updated to only 0.3%.

Schwimmbo

Lovely! Still got a bit lucky to do gain 50% on one day no? Might as well have pumped on that PPI.

franker555

Im literally specifically talking about the PPI and retail sales this morning. Why the fuck would i be talking about yesterday’s reports. Im not denying that we are going into an obvious recession. Ive been shorting the market for the past 2 months. Your autistic leave me alone.

lotus_bubo

Bear easy mode is over. PPI is pretty clear that inflation is retreating, and the Fed may actually pause. That doesn't mean bears lose, the game is now changing from inflation to recession. Beware, this means the market starts moving on completely different numbers and the transition could be all chop or even a rally. Play smart and safe.

Zvotedziecie

What the fuck are you smoking. CPI core higher , flat expectstions despite PPI lowe , do you know what it means ? Manufacturer index, retail sales close to 2008 levels meaning recession/ deflation. Bonds plummetting, oil plumetting What the fuck is bullish here , ah right. Knowledge of economics = zero. This system os so corrupt cause it feeds off of idiotic cockroaches like you

franker555

PPI dumb fuck.

franker555

PPI beat, retail sales matched.

OhBeareasy

PPI came in cool af. Recession actually canceled no cap on g.

lotus_bubo

PPI bullish. Inflation might actually be dead. Inflation bears better pivot to recession bears.

taxman1922

PPI report was lower than expected.

mcs5280

Imagine if banks weren't run by a bunch of greedy regards. Imagine how hard we would be pumping on the negative PPI

treesRfriends13

Yields getting crushed. This is good for banks holding treasuries and obv equities. PPI down. Everything bullish besides bank failures

JackHammeredd

I'm stuck. It feels like it should go down, but that is too obvious. Option Expiration day is Friday and it feels like market manipulators won't let too much money print into the hands of bears and PPI data came out good. Lots of reasons why we would see a bounce, but on the other hand, the banking industry is getting fucked and that seems bearish AF.