PPI

CreateDeprivation

The market always pumps whenever CPI, PPI or pce gets released 

teamdiabetes11

Low GDP might indicate slowing economy leading to recession. This would result in a poorer business climate and thus the valuations of companies may be (or are already) overvalued, and investors might be better served taking some money out of stocks (stocks go down). It’s a bigger deal than CPI and PPI, as a broader reflection of how the economy’s health is. So bad GDP, stocks go mostly down.

Aggressive_Soil_5134

Can someone explain why cooler GDP then expected is a bad thing when hotter PPI and CPI were a bad thing? Im not too sure about what these mean

mediocregolfer123

PPI is more important and that was in line. CPI is just being mainly driven by oil prices which is short term, so yes

charly371

warning: fake PPI on play store. Do not upload picture on your PP and any "PPI" application. Only get your PP Inspected by professional certified PP inspector.

ando421

2-3DTE $QQQ puts. 4-7k per play averaging 200-400% for a couple weeks. The day PPI released I kept buying and buying puts and lost 14k chasing. So if I didn’t do that bullshit I would be up even more. And to top it off those puts expired on a Friday and if I held they would’ve went from .23 when I sold (closed .13) to 1.65 the next day when $QQQ collapsed again. It was about 230 contracts. I bought more at EOD and made 15k the next day still but if I had held those I would’ve made about 30. So a couple errors in there but managed to come back. I went balls deep today and bought 240 puts @ 1.75 at 4pm they were worth 1.50 and I was losing my ass then at 4:07 Facebook / $META fell on its face and $QQQ dropped 2.50-3.00$ and I went from down 6.2k to up 13.4k and sold off 210 of them.

Long-Blood

PPI down. CPI up. Companies are not passing over their savings to consumers.  Sales are struggling. They will have to stop hiking prices to allow sales to climb back up if they want more profits.

Lost-Practice-5916

There's nothing new in Friday. Most of the calculation for PCE is contained in CPI and PPI. If you weren't regarded you'd know that.

FascinatingGarden

My current expectation: Demand will soften enough for PPI to fall. Fed will cut rates. Economy will fall further, since Fed was responding partly to lagged data. The Market will crash.

Any_Yogurtcloset362

Im thinking that too. At the same point I see the argument it just confirms the rate cuts are pushed out since there’s no surprise (I feel like PPI has given people 1% hope) and the market just dumps. I feel like if Meta goes down, Google goes down, PCE either way goes down. If Meta goes up, Google goes up, PCE could lead to an up.

Any_Yogurtcloset362

Nice write up! TikTok ban won’t change much in the short term. The Regional banks will be interesting as depending on how they report, given the lack of an interest rate cut in the near term, we could start to see some shakiness in the KRE and potentially another bank run as it would spell disaster for the CRE bubble we’re heading to at the end of the year. TSLA is going to be the story all day Tuesday. At this point it’s going to be how bad of a miss it will be not if it will miss. If they confirm the Model 2 news, it can spell disaster. Google has the opportunity to moon if it gives good guidance and beats. It’s at a very nice buy level. Meta has been a faithful beat now for many quarters, it could be time for a surprise but I’m not betting against it. PCE will be important. CPI was bad, PPI wasn’t as bad. PCE should come in as expected, but will that cause a further sell off or not at this point, I’m not sure. Im planning on running large Iron Condor Spreads on SPY, 517P120 on TSLA, and Put Credit Spreads on QQQ

pepitodetijuana

If PPI came in cold why would PCE not?

charly371

spent the whole WE looking at picture of PP online to try to predict the next PPI

Fikkafikation

I dont think people are gonna like this but at least give your reason with your down vote  I am on same lines but with a different thinking. I've heard puts should be within 30 days because market tendency to move up but here I feel differently. For NVDA I would eye the 6/21 puts (the IV on them is also half). Here's my reason: - Tech companies really need to deliver and imo other than PLTR, most have a weak AI game. Co-pilot is a disappointment in it current form and other don't have a realistic offering. A lot of them are over valued. - NVDA is closely tied with everything-AI, you can see how ASML, TSM, SMCI affect it day to day - SMCI reports a bad earning on 4/30. The non release of pre-earnings already gave a glimpse. - NVDA reports 5/22 and expectations are massive, so even with good they might under-perform and I feel that would be a miss as well. - Then comes the economic factors in this time frame up till 6/21. GDP/PCE (Apr 25/26). Fed Interest rate decision May 1. PPI MoM May 14. Inflation MoM May 15. Same indicators in June. - The middle east war news reports that come have not helped as well - We are also approaching in that price range vicinity where profit takers would like to pull out (\~$675, \~615, $475) In all this time-frame there is only one thing that could course correct, that would be the Fed Interest rate decision on May 1. Even with a good tech ER week, market direction will hinge on that. The narrative for now still seems to be 2 rate cuts. However, the GDP data forecast for next week is already low at 2.9%. Based on this months inflation data, I dont think the rate cuts can be announced. At best they would postpone and keep them steady which the market is not gonna like.

PFC321

PCE is going to come in as expected based off last PPI report. Spoiler: I don't have a fucking clue what I'm talking about. 

charly371

my uncle just finished my PPI

HulksInvinciblePants

Not entirely, but I think expectations and the narrative have gone a bit too negative. January was a bad report, but February and March were only slight misses (unrounded). March Core was literally .059% above expectations. Couple that with geopolitical volatility, plus the fact PPI (which flows into PCE) came *below* expectations, and I think you’ll have people buying deals rather than fleeing to safety.

Chutney__butt

Damn. Raw dogged to the max, any normal person would have stroked out around PPI. You will be remembered.

Born_Wave3443

Any news coming out today like the PPI reports or whatever you guys talk about. The FOMO meeting, etc.

darodardar_Inc

That is a very helpful way to put it! I'm still confused about this though: If CPI increases bc services increased bc workers want to be paid more, wouldn't PPI increase similarly because producers have to pay higher wages for labor?

darodardar_Inc

Is the PPI and CPI the data you're referencing? Ah I think I understand what you're saying. That the CPI is increasing because people want to be paid more, service fees increase. PPI decreases because manufacturers have competition and have to sell at low prices...? Is that roughly what you're saying? Sorry, I feel like I'm not getting it, I'd appreciate any help

cutiesarustimes2

PPI is basically input prices. The assumption is PPI is a leading indicator because companies will eventually pass it on to consumers.

darodardar_Inc

Ok guys so CPI measures change in prices PAID by consumers And PPI measures change in prices PAID by those businesses that sell the stuff to the consumers Right? Why is this so confusing to me lol

Shepherd0fSouls

Gonna need Powell to remind the market that PPI came in lower than expected and to stfu and get back to btfd or my portfolio is once again a poor-folio 

Johnny_Menace

TSM never had a chance! First earthquake, then Kashkari, then bad PPI, and now a war in the Middle East.

killedbykindness

Volility due to the March CPI report was completely offset by a better than expected PPI report a day later. So the factors affecting Friday's volatility surge must have been due to other factors. Also this surge was much larger than when the March CPI report was released. But my question was actually technical in nature for arriving at VIX index (like which comes first chicken or the egg). Who decides how much should the measure of volility? Is it the market makers? I agree, the March CPI report event was THE REAL DEAL as FED may potentially not reduce interest rates this year. But the very next day, the market had good recovery with volatility subsiding. So my question is if there is/are leading indicates that VIX may start a pullback from current levels. Especially for the shorter term VXX.

AppaDappaJappaa

The rocket will launch tomorrow.. 🚀 The war didn’t last long enough to have the impact the market was considering & was priced in. Not only the recovery from the sell off from yesterday but also the effect of PPI will be pumped in the market tomorrow..

charly371

Reminder that you should go behind Wendy to help your local PP Inspector to collect statistic for next PPI. Don t worry he is a CERTIFIED PP inspector and process is painless (apparently some people even enjoy it)

truz26

so which bank in upcoming earnings dare to give optimistic forward guidance and be more confident than JPM? with only retail sales on monday, what news can cool the “higher for much much longer” expectations? how can oil price just suddenly chill with these uncertainties? from a TA perspective, we have lower highs and lower lows since april fools on s&p500, and PPI relief rally unable to surpass the nfp and cpi heights if the only bull case is rsi under 35….

archetype_99

I bought $510 calls as well averaged down to 2.92.. honestly, after a bloody red Friday a quick bounce is almost probable in the first few minutes at open but with the market the way it is, no one knows squat. CPI—red, PPI green, the week before Powell spoke green, kashkari spoke red, it’s basically hit or miss in this undoubtedly a bull market from Dec when Powell spoke ( my view) others view it from October.

mcs5280

Iran attacked and hit 0%. This is basically like PPI coming in at 0%

CanLifeIsBest

Im also planning to buy some Monday calls for under ATH in either SPY/QQQ/SMH for like may/june? Something like that Also Google and Amazon are in a super bullish momentum And quite sure apple woke up. May going to be juicy as fuck as long as no other bad CPI/PPI news come out. Trust me bro Iran aint doing anything that would be enough to scare into bear market that is actually the biggest fear mongering war shit quite literally buy the dip

skeetskeetamirite

It’s only been 10 days. This could just as easily be a bear trap, the economy is strong CPI/PPI are net net a wash, rates remain unchanged, and Wendy’s still has a square meat. I’m bullish.

NeedleworkerCrafty17

CPI higher PPI lower Equals 🟰 corporate greed

IWasBornAGamblinMan

Been screaming Oil is pumping and firms like GS keep buying any dips. Rates skyrocketed and yet the market still went up as well as the dollar. Even had a bounce on a somewhat less hot PPI (perhaps the market forgot about the insane NFP numbers and the hotter than expected CPI?) Something had to give eventually.

AmazingSquare8542

Nope. Market going higher PPI 0.2 CPI 0.4 means CPI coming down

reddit-abcde

Is there a calendar for all this economic data like CPI, PPI, UoMichigan report etc?

purritos69

War in middle east been going on for literally thousands of years non stop. No big events like CPI PPI etc next week. Specific bank earnings could be hit or miss. We'll be back near 520 next Friday

BlackStackofCrack

What are you talking about? PPI wasn’t bad

Malamonga1

the PPI report released yesterday meant that core PCE month over month estimate will come in around 0.25%. That annualizes to just under 3%, which is worse than what we had in 2nd half of 2023 (annualizes to 2% core PCE), but much better than what the core CPI suggested. People go apeshit over core CPI, but that's not what the Fed monitors for their 2.0% inflation target. **They look at PCE**. PCE year over year is 2.45%. That's why they are talking about rate cut. CPI Year over year was 3.5%. When PCE YoY was still that high, around June 2023, they were still talking about hiking rates. CPI is only talked about because it gets released 2 weeks before PCE. With both CPI and PCE data, economists can estimate pretty close how high the PCE print will be.

CreateDeprivation

Doubt they'll hike unless PPI also comes in hot, holding steady makes more sense

r_picsmods_suckfatD

Low PPI was the reason. This is no reason

Metacog_Drivel

CPI:  PPI:  IRAN retaliation possibility:  My portfolio:  Me: 

drew2222222

CPI was high but PPI was low. You might have missed something.

zg44

Market is confused by all these data points (CPI, PPI, import prices, bank earnings). No real trend the past 2 weeks except commodities/metals up.

dogebonoff

JPMorgan dumped on earnings today, gave shit guidance and warned of inflationary pressures CPI was shit this week, and PPI was slightly less shitty than expected but still shit That’s why we’re dumping fam

kangadegen

PPI

mcccliii

CPI or PPI move fake?

Main_Sergeant_40

No it doesn’t. The CPI and PPI show inflation, not a bank earnings. It’s just a bank earnings beat. Don’t overthink it

Matthewawbrey

PPI for final demand rises 0.2% in March; services increase 0.3%, goods decline 0.1%

wsb-legatus-goodman

I didn't know the PPI report had so much information. I also want to apologize to you for my response, I should have at least done a quick search before asking for the source.

Phiziqe

Headline PPI was below the banks' expectation which led to the bull run on Nasdaq, apple and most of stonks yesterday

TheOnlySafeCult

rationale for bet was on technicals, PPI and AI chip news kinda obfuscates whether his rationale was correct.

bozoputer

Even without the AI news, that support level is strong - really nice work picking up those calls on the cheap. I mean CPI was bad, but PPI would not have moved it further down even if it was likely intended for just a small bounce, you could still get out - I'm guessing that was the play?

celeryking13

bro, PPI was good and then apple released some good news at 1pm .

livelearnplay

It’s a classic spy pattern of pump and dump in the pre-market after the PPI release followed by a reversal into the afternoon.

ubeen

Think the revenue report from tsmc was a low-key nvidia bullish signal. Looking like they're at max capacity, so someone is still buying their products faster than they can make them. Couldn't tell yeah about the CPI and PPI. Normally, CPI high is bullish for commodities/energy and bad for the tech sector. Feel like the feds' hands are tied. Raising interest rates and crashing the market in an election year isn't likely to happen imo. I'd imagine we don't see cuts or hikes and stay the course until the election is done.

BuyInHigh

I'm a bit anxious. Would hop in at 133ish today if it came, kinda hope it's pre earnings so I can sell calls on the IV spike next week. Was surprised CPI and PPI didn't give me the entry I wanted. Not surprised too because I don't get surprised in a bull market. Dip buyers be buyin dips. What do you make of the market strength in the face of fewer rate cuts further out narrative?

drew2222222

But the PPI print said inflation not that bad. Just cpi was bad so like companies raising prices but their prices aren’t going up, meaning big earnings and bull market forever

HossBonaventureCEO_

Probably not after decent CPI and PPI data and not many catalysts til tech earnings week. Prob gonna be flat or up.

LUNA_underUrsaMajor

You got lucky with good PPI numbers and Apple randomly coming oit with M4 ai chip

FarrisAT

It’s the seasonal switch from winter blend to summer blend. But yes, that means that if oil and gasoline keep rising, then by June the seasonals will start pushing up PPI energy.

Silent-Commercial-99

The PPI should be the first indicator that inflation is coming down. Production first, then consumer. I think the fact that PPI came in sort of mixed shows that inflation is at an inflection point. I'm also kinda stupid though.

slam-dunk-1

Or perhaps the Fed’s dot plot just last month said 3 cuts and now we’re looking at basically a PCE at expectations since CPI and PPI cancelled out each other? Not everything’s a conspiracy regard

semolinacoma

🤣🤣🤣 you don't even know how the PPI index works.

VenmoSnake

To add to the equation CPI over estimates + PPI under estimates = Corporate greed induced inflation = Higher margins = More profits = Stonks go up

Malamonga1

so this is kinda misleading because you don't just average CPI and PPI. PPI is cost inflation for producers. Producers can choose to offset those cost by raising prices for consumers, hence increasing CPI or PCE. PPI could drop, but producers could still choose to keep price the same or even raise prices to increase profit margins, hence increasing CPI even though PPI is dropping. But average CPI and PPI together doesn't make sense. PPI is mostly used to calculate PCE, but not all components in PPI is relevant for PCE. The most relevant ones in PPI are medical care services and financial services. Medical care service is a notable one because it has a sizable weight on PCE, but on CPI, it has a different calculating method than PCE. Economists will rely on medical care service cost on PPI to guess what it will be on PCE. Financial service on PPI is important because it isn't a component on CPI. Because of different weights for components and some differences in calculation method, there's a huge spread between CPI and PCE, about 1% right now. The Fed 2.0% target is based on PCE YoY.

Ok-Buy6186

Just noticed it was the not-so hot PPI that shrek’d the market today lmao. So I guess insignificant PPI can offset significant CPI hm, something to remember for the future 

PapaCharlie9

It’s always worth googling to see if there is any macro news. Better than expected PPI rallied tech stocks. https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-041124

PoopholeLicker

Most people don’t seem to understand how the macro economic environment actually affects the market. The PPI data forecasted this big pump perfectly. Back to ATH we go

LanceX2

PPI. My apologies

Unreasonablysahd

This was my post from yesterday. I’m sorry I tried to help. But you regards can’t read. I nailed it to the wall. Even got my prediction in today’s price move nailed. “Why is everyone so bad at this. Stocks go up when rates go up because the FED is giving their stamp of endorsement that the economy is strong enough to handle those higher rates. Stocks also go up in high inflation because stocks are a hedge against inflation. So higher rates and higher inflation is HIGHER STOCKS x2. Stocks go down when rates go down because the Fed is telling you straight up the economy is weak and needs a boost. Stocks go down in DEflation (not DISinflation) because prices go down which means earnings go down. Bears who think it will go down when inflation and rates goes up are WRONG, in fact it’s double wrong. Bulls who think stocks go up with disinflation and rates dropping are WRONG. Tomorrow PPI if it goes up more than CPI then companies are getting squeezed and stocks drop. If PPI is equal to CPI (relatively) then flat which is bull. Up 1%. If PPI is less than CPI (relatively to previous print) then consumers are getting squeezed but companies are raking it in. This is very bull, up 2-3%. Whether it “misses” or “beats” might throw a twist in, but the above will be what happens at the end of the day. Remember, stocks are priced according to how the companies are performing, NOT the “economy”. Stocks don’t give a shit if everyone and their pet parakeet are maxed to the hilt and drowning in inflation as long as the companies are making more money. Regards.”

RockyMountainOyster5

So PPI is that important huh

JakeTappersCat

PPI was better than expected purely because Biden violated his own sanctions and bought fuel oil and diesel from Russia. There are TONS of levers like this that the administration can pull at any time to lower inflation... they just haven't been doing it. They could cut tariffs on china and *poof* inflation would drop. The real cause of inflation is Biden's idiotic policies wrt tariffs and sanctions, nothing else

Valvo921

In my mind, it’s sell at -50% at worst. Yesterday I got into my head with all the bearish talk about PPI being same as CPI results and market tanking again so I sold.

Boomer_here

PPI=fuzzy math

CharlesLupton

Bought 518 calls around close yesterday. Last minute dump scared me. PPI gave me hope. Market action early said I was screwed. Held and sold at the peak and 2X my 45K account. Cashed out my principal and some profit. Yolo'd the rest of my profits on puts. It goes to zero and was still a good day. Spy pulls back a couple dollars (<$516 is my magic number) and I will have gotten 5X in one day. Blew up my account a few times before, but finally profitable after discovering 0DTE Spy and going full regard.

Puzzled-Raspberry-32

PPI rising more than last month. Jobless claims drop. but muh rate cuts

Canooftw

had my best day today went long after that report about EU came in as well as PPI

Canooftw

had my best day in the markets yet thank you PPI

skdltmtit123

Well at least PPI went down so I guess that helped...

SleazyAsshole

PPI came in lower, rate cuts back on the menu baby

semolinacoma

PPI came in fantastic. Economy incredibly strong, it's going to print all year to SPX 5400 and beyond.

redbear5000

PPI came in lower than expected, investors are looking for sny dip to enter the market, who gives af about rate cuts, market is strong as it is

Elforas_Tero

PPI came cold. Pairing this with CPI coming hot means that inflation uptick was driven by corporate greed, aka, good earnings getting priced in

goofy-boots

cpi yesterday 0.1% higher across the board market drops PM then theta all day. PPI comes in 0.1% below today - absolute moon mission

iBeFlying676

What a fuckin rigged ass clown market. LMAO. $NVDA 900 when CPI is hot as fuck and PPI is borderline. HAHAHAHAHAHA

Environmental_Bad821

So PPI up the most in 2 years, but not as much as expected = moon

jeopardy_loser

yeah the PPI was cool though

tropicalia84

Cool PPI, Hot CPI. They are paying less but charging you more. # EARNINGS GO BRRRRRRRRRRRRR

nateccs

PPI came in cool

gtbifmoney

PPI rose at the fastest pace in over a year. Fantastic?

semolinacoma

Ignore the mouthbreathing regards in r/stocks. PPI looked fantastic. PCE will probably be way better than CPI. Besides the latter, economic data actually has been pretty fucking fantastic lately. 2Q earnings might be choppy but overall get us back to grinding back up steadily.

Sandvicheater

We lose on CPI yesterday and win on PPI today looks like a whole lotta flatness for the week. Both bears and bulls lost.

Sandvicheater

We lose on CPI yesterday and win on PPI today looks like a whole lotta flatness for the week. Both bears and bulls lost.

treesRfriends13

PPI was bullish why would it crash

brolybackshots

This is pretty fuckin bad lol PPI hasnt been over 2% since last spring...

mycomputerisbroken7

i dont know CPI, PPI, GIJoe, stuff is. all i know if that my AAPL calls are red. SEND IT TIM APPLE.

treesRfriends13

PPI was bullish. Green EOD

Fikkafikation

Someone plz correct me if my understanding is incorrect: PPI (wholesale) price went down, would suggest production prices went down. However, CPI (consumer) price went up, suggest actual price we pay went up. Doesn't that just mean corporate America is taking in larger profits and just being greedy ?