PPI

ColForbinClimbs

The initial shock is ending. Stage 2 of oil shock is PPI/CPI rising. 

calm_discussion_3500

Core PCE is 3.1% and core PPI 3.6% *before the war". Those are just averages. Many of us would simply get poorer everyday and poorer with taxes and inflation. That's just foolish when nominal growth is going to soar. Young people should be not be in 10-20 year bonds. That's just bad advice.

ColForbinClimbs

April PPI will show the effects from oil shock. I believe we see an increase in inflation, while Trump pushes for lower interest rates. Sustained inflation is my guess, unless Warsh does what Trump wants, then we see 1970s stagflation. 

PocaMadre69

It’s a play you make during earnings or expecting some big data dump in the morning like PPI or CPI If there’s some huge news coming out after hours or in our case some huge geopolitical risk then maybe you can hold overnight I often hold options over the weekend with the way the world is looking these days but they need to be dated further than two weeks out because the last two weeks to expiry is when theta is most aggressive

calm_discussion_3500

It is counterintuitive for many people but it makes sense. Current dollar GDP is likely in the 6.6% range adjusting for the shutdown and GDP inflation is around 4% over real growth. Core PCE is 3.1% like you said before the war and core PPI pre-war is 3.6%. Stocks go up because cash is getting murdered and printing will continue. I know that feels "wrong" but that is the reality of the situation. So the decision is do I become poorer or do I stay invested?

calm_discussion_3500

It is tragic and I voted against this. I donated and volunteered against him. I vote local elections. But what else can we do? I have to be rational with my cash. Core is still 3.0% 5 years later. Core PPI is 3.6%. And that's before even the war has even kicked in. Meanwhile his Fed pick is going to cut rates and ramp up the printing of new dollars likely even further. I can choose to sit in cash and become poorer after inflation and taxes. Or I can stay invested while slow hire, slow real growth economy but low layoffs and very high nominal growth economy continues. Earnings, profits will keep growing double digits.

calm_discussion_3500

Core PCE is 3% 5 years later. PPI is 3.6%. Inflation has arrived and already here. My personal thesis has always been continuous 3-4% inflation not hyperinflation. Most Americans are in checking accounts and are getting crushed there. After taxes and inflation competitive HYSA at 3.3% is actively getting poorer. 30Y is barely moving forward in 30 years if at all. IMO debt and cash when the printing press is on is a gamble on a truly catastrophic black swan. Not a serious investment.

calm_discussion_3500

Core PCE is 3% 5 years later. PPI is 3.6%. High inflation has arrived and already here.

BagHoldersOfAmerica

Is there any watch dog agency that gets to look at the same set of data and verify the government's findings on CPI and PPI. I mean in the age of AI and big data I don't see why I wouldn't be easy to cross examine for BS

Crazy_Donkies

PPI has entered the chat. 

Fickle-Necessary-438

GDP collapsing ,Trade deficit collapsing , 92k jobs lost , PCE %3 , CPI %2.5 , PPI %2.9, SOFR has been pushing beyond the Fed's upper bound for months now (NO LIQUDITY) , Private Credit going bust & blocking redemptions ( Blackrock, Blackstone, Blueowl ) oh and has anyone paid attention to Regional banks? WAL losing %15 in a single day last week? KRE losing its 50 , 100 and 200 SMA all within a week and half? Nearly %20 of global oil supply is being choked off, energy = growth. Global GDP is shrinking every minute those tanks sit parked along with Force Majeure now being declared by producers in the region, startups are long arduous processes, not to mention all the refineries that have been bombed. Even if the War "ended" today the price in Oil will not go back down meaningfully , the damage is already done and a global recession is all but certain. Oil touching $120 signaled the end, inflation will return with force and anybody who thought the Fed may cut or announce cuts at FOMC next week is going to be sadly disappointed. They can tweet , obfuscate the truth about the situation all they want but the fact is the economy is teetering , the financial system is running out of liquidity. Something needs to give .

therpgrad

I was holding a massive amount of SPXL at the time. I didn't want to pay taxes on the long-term gains, so I ate a very large decline on paper for that year. However, shorting key industries helped to significantly lessen the blow and allowed me to dollar-cost average while waiting for CPI and PPI to cool. For instance, back in early January, NFLX dropped 25%-ish after their earnings call. That drop was spurred by a strong decline in subscriber growth. People were also starting to worry about inflation, so that exacerbated the sell-off. TGT and WMT dropped anywhere from 20-30% across a few sessions after their earning calls in April and May. They were experiencing lower revenues due to inflation-driven consumer cutbacks. META dropped some 60% due to ad revenue declines. Buying monthly puts on every other mid-cap and large-cap company after witnessing those earnings calls was good money.

Phelixx

What do you mean? Inflationary energy pricing. Bad jobs report. Increasing unemployment. International war. Bad PPI numbers. What could go wrong?

calm_discussion_3500

Powell said he views his legacy as handing a strong economy to the next chair. I don't think he crashes it. So will Warsh? Arguments for hawkishness: * He was a hawk most of his life until just recently when vying for the job. * The current strikes on oil infrastructure was military related according to Israel, if war drags on and more disruption leads to prices going higher and staying high, that could create fears of an inflation spiral. Arguments for dovishness: * Trump and his team spent 6 months deliberating on a new chair. Going back and forth between many candidates. They had a notorious bond bull in Rick Rieder who has been a strong advocate for bonds his entire life and looser policy. To choose Warsh over Rieder suggests that they must have had some kind of reassurance he would follow Trump's lower rate mandate. * It has been five years since core PCE hit 3% it is still 3%, core PPI is 3.6%. It is no longer a controversial statement to say the current Fed framework and FOMC leans significantly more dovish than historical Feds, measured by willingness to create loose credit conditions while inflation is elevated.

GreyMatter22

Since '23, everyone has been *carefully* watching tick-by-tick, CPI and PPI report monthly, for every increment of inflation to the downside to bring rates down. We were close to a 'soft landing' of sorts, and with metals+precious metals rallying, inflation was proving to be a challenge to keep down. And then, outta nowhere: https://preview.redd.it/a3iy1sgrtnng1.png?width=1138&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bfdbcd1df45c6ad1255c826049fbc47c515fb30 Bam, oil is up almost 60% within six months, which is insanity. And the Strait of Hormuz has so signs of re-opening. I can't explain how crazy a 60% move on oil is, and how expensive almost everything is about to be. At lesat in '20-'21 when inflation was high, we all had money to buy baking equipment, NFTs, and other useless items, right now cost of living is up, net savings are down, AND we will get slapped with inflation. I rest my case, thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

selesnyaTroll

End of the week thoughts - The big boys have been holding up the market pretty well and I'm guessing it's from either the hopium the administration has been shilling that the war is almost over or the hopium that this buffoon will TACO again and they don't want to be caught selling off right before another TACO. However, every day this shit goes on gets exponentially worse for oil, fuel, fertilizer, metals, etc. Either the TACO declares "victory" and deescalates things this weekend (and I feel this is kinda low probability) or we're gonna see the hopium leave the market next week and get chunkier downswings across the board. Adding to the problem is the fact that the jobs market is utter shit. PPI is shit. Market needs some good news in a fucking hurry.

leeuwvanvlaanderen

lol the PPI data says otherwise  Idiot 

ChampionshipOdd947

Check out the last PPI report - no way we're getting cuts. Inflation's popping up again.

NotMe357

Last week we got a surprise hot PPI and next week if we got a surprise hot CPI then I think we bulls are fucked for real.....this time.

calm_discussion_3500

I don't know how people feel comfortable holding cash when core PCE is still 3.0% 5 years later, core PPI is 3.6%, oil is going up, Warsh is going to print more money and Iran just means we have to take on a shitload more debt to replenish munitions.

Basis_404_

So someone check my thinking here. A disruption to 30% of the world’s oil supply in a conflict with no clear path to resolution, growing doubts about AI, and an uptick in PPI all means calls on SPY to all time highs right?

LandCruiser76

buddy.... Us just entered another forever war with no clear plan. Israel is invading Lebanon, T just announced he's cutting off all trade with Spain because they won't let bombers take off in their airspace, and we might invade cuba tomorrow. Iran then launched missiles at the UAE. The largest gas producer ground to a hault and the Japanese market collapsed by about 8% who is also one of our best trade partners, and who we gave zero warning that we were going to trap their assets in Iran. T keeps saying the USA has an infinite supply of weapons (which usually means the opposite), and we have shuttered enough domestic manufacturing, and sold US steel to nippon steel last year, so any gain of a wartime production run will be felt by Japanese ownership. And the tarrif supreme court decision will send ripples through the bond market (i think) Our deficit just broke records, jobs numbers are down (last report's margin of error was essentially all the jobs) and PPI and CPI are up, with consumer sentiment down. Housing market is stalling even with the lower rate projecting in my major city a 1.4% down turn in the next 9 months. Markets are emotional, they will respond to whats happening, and stable it is not.

LoseALotOfMoney

So is PPI a good or bad thing for spy?

ButtholeAnalogy

this is some baby back bullshit boys, 1.5% from the lows with a full out war and PPI. Give me a break!

Terrible_Act688

PPI up, war started..... Bols be like Calls!

NotMe357

The problem is we have a very high PPI and if TACO can't fix this war fast then oil will keep pumping and inflation will skyrocket so there wouldn't be any rate cut left of this year. Hell, maybe ever a rate hike too.

CUbuffGuy

I opened it due to the PPI report Friday, knowing there was also downside risk from the Iran tensions. It’s exceeded my expectations on open; meaning I’ll be in greater profit than expected, but all the risks I foresaw are accurately coming true. This makes me want to lower my strikes even further, but I also think that’s greedy. I’ll likely sell a portion and keep most of it on. Expiration is 3 weeks out for the majority. About 200k on so plenty to cut and still have skin in the game.

SocraticGoats

Yeah the latest PPI came in hot, and now oil is up which will show in inflation data soon... aka less chance of cuts, possibilities of hikes. Bond prices should be down. My guess as to why they are not is people are starting to sniff out a recession. Or maybe mango told a bunch of other countries that if they bought our bonds, he would blow up Iran.

whodey84

PPI came in hot for January. Good thing oil is down so we don't have any inflation.

HesFromBarrancas

Oil is up 30% from the bottom so far in 2026, with Jan. & Feb. PPI already overshooting by double on MOM expectations. Do the math.

Happy_Discussion_536

PPI is 3.6%. Core PCE is 3% 5 years later still. Warsh going to cut. Only ber still thinks cash is intelligent.

Happy_Discussion_536

0% SPY isn't happening. With core PCE at 3%. Core PPI at 3.6%, cash is trash. Money printer roaring. Warsh cuts soon.

HesFromBarrancas

Have emphasised this daily for the past month. Long consolidation on WTI, then breaking to 5 month highs and flagging for this move. USD bottomed late-Jan alongside the Nasdaq double top; energy inflationary pressures (+ what we’re already seeing in PPI before this fuel ramp up) will kill any concept of rate cuts and and hammer tech.

CriticalBlackberry90

Methinks this week relief rally and then next week we dump leading into FOMC from that hot PPI

NotMe357

I think we'll open green and try to push higher then fade slowly because of high PPI.

Krammsy

I'm not so sure after Friday's PPI.

Pereise1

> In the lead-up to the U. S. and Israeli attacks, the CIA assessed that if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, hardline leaders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would likely take his place. A lot of yall permabulls are coping hard if you think a successful assassination gonna make it old news by Monday. Oil spike is a real concern when we already got a hot PPI two months in a row.

NotMe357

"BREAKING: Israel assesses the assassination was successful; the likelihood that Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei survived the Israeli strike is slim to none, per N12" If Supreme Leader is100% confirm dead then we'll pump on Monday. But we still have a problem with high PPI. If we somehow can fix it then I think ATH is here soon.

mzungu75

I was wondering why long term US yields were so well bid yesterday, despite awful PPI numbers. The rally had zero sense in a normal scenario. But of course, insider trading and manipulation has become the norm with this "administration".

MarketCharlatan

The PPI came in very hot which drove the selloff today. We will likely be choppy red next week, especially if Iran news gets worse

TrashPanda_924

The PPI print was no bueno. We’ll still get 2 or 3 cuts this year, but it’s probably now back end loaded. I don’t see recent events changing the narrative around economic growth, but the delay in cuts changes valuations a little. My guess is we’re probably seeing the bottom in the next few weeks.

Wide_Air_4702

My news sources blamed the surprisingly high PPI.

zonk84

Core inflation was "down significantly" 2-3 years ago. The problem now is that - PPI today as a good case, but use whatever (CPI/PPI/PCE) metric you like - it's inching back up. Ordinarily, I'd say "The Free Market rolls its eyes at your government" and politically? People have always given too much blame - or too much credit -- towards government impact. But - we live in rare times. And it utterly boggles my mind that we live in a world a supposed *Republican* administration is being more activist, more overly involved, more *statist and central planning* towards the economy than even the wildest eyed of lefties could have dreamed in my lifetime. The dude is a friggin disaster. The sooner we're beyond him and done with him, the better. This is worse than killing the golden goose... It's like feeding Kim Jong Whatever a lot of cocaine and tasking him to babysit the golden goose.

21plankton

Sentiment in the market was really bad today without panic. I expect a rout next week to test limits. In reality nothing is that bad, no big downside surprises or black swans, just will probably be leaning into a correction because the market was going up since last April. That core PPI is chips and metals mostly, but likely to persist.

itsnotshade

$250m is nothing. The real issues are PPI came in red hot with core well above 3.6% and headline at 2.9% which is limiting rate cut chances. The other thing is private credit is toxic and AI incurred debt seems more questionable. The financials are increasingly becoming correlated to the larger “sell AI” trade. If you don’t want to believe Altman is worth trillions, why would you want to hold a bank that lended to him.

NotGucci

Market really seems stuck. Lots of bearish data especially with PPI but market seems fatigued with selling.

I_HopeThat_WasFart

your thesis doesnt even match the macro events, your TA astrology happened to match up with Iran war, hot PPI and an already accelerated selloff To pat yourself on the back for saying "every 6 months for 3 weeks I can pick SPYs direction" is retarded and the kind of self confirmation bias from low IQ "investors" everyone with smart money looks for give me a fucking break

RevolutionaryPhoto24

Because PPI and *gestures broadly*. (Didn’t even try to play the range today, myself.)

itsnotshade

PPI figures must be fake. I was told we have no inflation.

IceyFoxes

someone explain to my dumbass why TLT can rise on hot PPI?

ButtholeAnalogy

Can someone explain how we're only down .25% on that PPI print this AM

Firebond2

>just they took away data during the shutdown that made things look better than they really are. Yeah the missing data from October is going to mess with CPI until around April, at least for things like rent and OER. So you'll see a decoupling between CPI and PPI until then probably. It's better to use PCE anyway.

ButtholeAnalogy

So we pumping off the biggest PPI print in years? Got it.

Myers112

$RKT blew out earnings and was up 10%. Today PPI come in hot and erases that entire move. Wack

dljmonkeyboiz

Hot PPI and you thought the markets were gonna dump? ... yeah, me too.

oldprecision

Imagine if the PPI we got today is the cooked number.

Technical-Emu-32

PPI mildly bad? I ran ? End of month rebalancing?

Happy_Discussion_536

We are. I vote, donate money and volunteer. What else do you suggest we do? Core PCE is 3%. PPI is 3.6%. Trump is going to ramp up the money printer. All we can do is get out of dollars as much as possible and buy stocks.

Solid-Season9984

#My PPI is also kinda hawt 🥵🥵🥵

ozz3121

But PPI came in hot, where is market crash?

deadmancaulking

PPI

jnas_19

Must’ve been your first time seeing markets react to PPI because they really don’t give a shit about PPI

Cthulhu-2020

PPI numbers are pretty compelling.

Liability049-6319

The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.3%. Stagflation is here

dustybirdsss

TLT getting pumped when PPI came in hot. Make is make sense.

looool_k_libtard

hot PPI, awful jobs data, awful economic growth? embassy being emptied in Middle East. And now mag 7 is in a full correction. Only a matter of time before SPY eats shit finally.

mneymaker

Ok now that PPI is off the table can we please focus on the AI deals and trades all around so we pump back? Maybe US coming back to the negotiation table with Iran on sensible terms as well....?

MeeseShoop

Hot, hot, hot PPI

Key_Abroad7633

Now the market doesent care abouta hot PPI

FarWay9137

PPI up means everything is more expensive right? Now is this due to actual dollar inflaton? Or companies just raising their prices in the name of record profits? Calls

civillyRange

How tf is the 10yr under 4 with PPI that hot? CRIME

Glittering-Fail-8056

Trading today is gonna be risky as shit.  Calls logic: we are already down get on the V cause we have been bouncing of 680 since months. Puts logic: trash numbers for PPI might get hikes. Bearish wall street 

jerm2z

PPI numbers don't mean anything. Calls.

mneymaker

So when we got good CPI/PPI data we were pumping for 20 mins and then dip to the abyss because ...??? That means today we dip for 20 mins and then rip because AI Superiority is back and we dipped enough since yesterday?

Happy_Discussion_536

* Core PCE 3.0% 5+ years later of elevated inflation. * PPI 3.6%. Actual retard ber: gaiz sofi hysa is 3.3%!!!! cash is king! after taxes and inflation I'll only get poorer slowly!!!

EthanielRain

Look 2 lines directly below the red square: >core PPI recorded a .8% gain

DISAPPOINTING_FAIRY

PPI can also go up due to things like rising input costs and currency depreciation. Why, when we know for a fact that both those things are happening, would you assume that it indicates strengthening demand?

Ascertion

PPI being up would indicate stronger than anticipated demand?

TheIntrepid1

Idk man, Iran plus red hot PPI is a tough double whammy … but we’ll see I guess

RogerBalderer

I’m going to PPI your mum

---Right--Tackle---

#PPI hot, yields diving. Retarded market continues to retard.

bubbawears

I guess Israel and PPI are bad for my AI stocks. Very related

ahopye

PPI sky high, rate hikes on the menu, brink of war with Iran. Are you a retard?

WocketWaccoon

Tom “fat cuck” Lee said PPI coming in “hot” is actually bullish

Meetdreys

that makes a lot of sense tariffs basically put everything on ice for months: companies delayed orders, held off on price hikes, and just absorbed costs to avoid the chaos. Now with implementation ramping up, that pent-up pressure is finally showing through in wholesale numbers. PPI catching up like this could mean more inflation pass-through to CPI soon, especially if supply chains keep tightening. Short-term, it’s another reason for the Fed to stay cautious no quick cuts on the horizon.

jda823

This narrative of hot PPI numbers being good/bullish because it shows people still having strong demand to buy things is bullshit. People don't have infinite money. They can't keep up buying things forever. Choices will be made and the economy will slow. It might not have happened yet, but it will. 

chennngiskhan

PPI was too low for a long time because companies basically froze their operations in face of tariffs. Now they HAVE to move.

iwasshotbyatigeronce

I honestly thought VIX would be higher by now after that PPI print.

95Daphne

Sadly I don't think the odds of this PPI ever fully translating are good. The difference between now and 2018 is that this time, companies are laying people off to eat more of the tariffs. I expect February to be an increase, but will be surprised if core CPI is more than 0.3 MoM and that's been met with a shrug.

Kabrosif

Another ugly day coming as the last thing the market needed is back to back red hot inflation numbers. CPI PPI, unfortunately a rate hike is now back on the table and that would likely cause a 10-15% correction -Will Meade on X

leeuwvanvlaanderen

Core PPI 0.8% MOM is genuinely crazy 

Crazy_Donkies

For the uninformed, higher PPI implies higher CPI down strearm with the consumer. Maybe inflation isn't transitory.

Happy_Discussion_536

Emotional retards accumulating cash when core pce is 3%, core PPI is 3.4%, and money printer is accelerating. Layoffs actually shrinking.

DoggedStooge

And core PPI .8 vs .3. Yowch.

EyeSea7923

MM urge to kill options > PPI

NotMe357

Hot PPI

Ascertion

Did Trump forget to cook the PPI numbers?

looool_k_libtard

Why would Obama make PPI go up

S-Club-Party

“they” are literally telling us PPI is up right here in this release lmao

The_Judgement_Nut

High PPI is a good sign because that means that money is flowing into the manufacturing sector of economy and is flowing into businesses while CPI is low so the consumer is safe. Usa to the moon, buy calls you retards.