Reddit Posts
Just Pictures: Core CPI, Headline CPI, Rent, Gasoline, Strait of Hormuz, SPR Levels
We tested a methodological critique of our macro ARIMA model. Here's the results.
Tech is selling off, PPI came in hot. I’m starting to look at prediction markets instead of the stock.
Update 3: Did this just to stop the DMs: still nearly 150% on the day, $300 deposited 2 days ago to $9,255.21 but then down to $5,612.57 so gainloss
White hot PPI in May: 1.1% MoM and 6.5% YoY
USD Dominance vs. EUR/GBP Volatility: Key Data to Watch
30 year treasury yield at highest since may 2025. CPI 3.8% PPI 6%. BofA: no cuts until july 2027. JPMorgan: next move is a HIKE. warsh's first FOMC is june 17 and the bond market is already doing his job for him.
gold dropped 114 dollars on friday while CPI is at 3.8% and PPI at 6%. the bond market is telling you something the fed will not say yet
powell's term expired friday. kevin warsh inherits 3.8 percent CPI, 6 percent PPI, and a bond market pricing in rate hikes not cuts. good lu
VENTURE GLOBAL ($VG): THE EASIEST ENERGY PLAY OF 2026?
I moved 20% to treasuries a while ago betting on a pullback. Some data came in this week that wasn't in my thesis.
Full ported into 0 DTE Puts this morning
Just here to Post my Annual Stock market is about to get completely Destroyed post.
Wholesale inflation jumps 6% in April, biggest since 2022, PPI rises 1.4% vs 0.5% estimate as energy drives surge
PPI Report: The largest gain since March 2022
The PPI came out massively above expectations
Core PPI: 1%MoM / 5.2%YoY | PPI: 1.4%MoM / 6.0%YOY
the oil shock is leaking into everything and PPI this morning is going to confirm it
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) - Strong Buy
Week Ahead: Markets Brace for CPI, PPI and Retail Sales Reports
Week Ahead: Markets Brace for CPI, PPI and Retail Sales Reports
Week Ahead: Markets Brace for CPI, PPI and Retail Sales Reports
Keeping with current trends, the bank of Japan intervenes in the Yen market even with stocks at all time highs. Good for more market pump
Keeping with current trends, the bank of Japan intervenes in the Yen market even with stocks at all time highs. Good for more market pump
Oil major BP beats profit expectations as Iran war boosts fuel prices
Today’s Developments Hold Key Implications for USD and Rate-Sensitive Options
SNDK: Something Big Is Happening Before the Nasdaq-100 Add
SNDK: Something Big Is Happening Before the Nasdaq-100 Add
With positioning dynamics improving and geopolitical risk still in the background, how are you thinking about risk exposure into the back half of April?
Economy Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected (1.1%)
China exports miss estimates in March, imports post best growth in more than four years
19 MARCH 2026 , SMALL CAP COMPANIES BIGGEST LOSERS FOR YOU DEGENERATE MIGHT HAVE TO APPLY FOR TWO JOBS IF YOU STILL HOLDING THESE
Middle East conflict triggers "Black Wednesday" for global stock markets?
Trumplflation has arrived! PPI hits 3.4% in February. This was before the US war on Iran and spike in energy prices.
Our Ports After Today’s PPI Report:
Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February, much more than expected
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall after PPI inflation comes in hot ahead of Fed decision
Prices Paid to US Producers Increase by More Than Forecast
Built a “smart” economic calendar that acts as a desk side analyst
Week Recap: The Dow completed the worst week of the year after PPI inflation and Nasdaq sell-off due to AI and Nvidia. Feb. 23, 2026 – Feb. 27, 2026
Inflation is back on the menu boys
Markets got smacked today: Dow down ~700 points (1.5%) after that scorching PPI print + fresh AI jitters.
HOT OFF THE PRESS: US January PPI Just Dropped – Hotter Than Expected!
Dollar Dominance Continues - PPI Could Be the Catalyst
Weekend Update: Partial Gov Shutdown Active + Monday Outlook.
Week Recap: Fed hold interest rates steady. Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. Silver dropped more than 20%. The S&P 500 gained 0.34%. Jan. 26, 2026 – Jan. 30, 2026
Weekend Breakdown: Partial Gov Shutdown Active + Fed Hawks (Musalem) push back on cuts.
Post-Market Breakdown: The "Warsh Shock" + Hot PPI triggers Historic Metals Liquidation.
US December PPI final demand Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expected
US December PPI final demand Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expected | investingLive
Producer prices up more than expected, though annual rate eases
Pre-Market Alert: PPI comes in HOT (+0.5% / +3.3% YoY). The "Inflation Reboot" trade.
Pre-Market Prep: "AI Anxiety" hits Software, PPI Inflation & Big Oil Earnings tomorrow.
Big earnings week ahead: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, what are you watching most?
Week Recap: Unrest in Iran, inflation and factory index data, and Trump's attacks on the Fed. Rate cut hopes fade. The S&P 500 dropped 0.38% for a week. Jan. 12, 2026 – Jan. 16, 2026
UPDATE #3: I’m Bout To Pull The Greatest Trading Comeback OF ALL TIME $12 to $1 million
UPDATE #3: I’m Bout To Pull The Greatest Trading Comeback OF ALL TIME $12 to $1 million
UPDATE #3: I’m Bout To Pull The Greatest Trading Comeback OF ALL TIME $12 to $1 million
Week Recap: The Fed cuts interest rates by 0.25%. Chip stocks dragged down the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 broke 2-week winning streak. Dec. 8, 2025 – Dec. 12, 2025
BLS skips October PPI report as data gets pushed to January 14
October PPI Report Delayed Until Mid January
Week Recap: Fully green week. The S&P 500 gained 3.73%. It's highest weekly performance since May 2025. Has the New Year's Rally begun? Nov. 24, 2025 – Nov. 28, 2025
Delayed Retail Sales + PPI All Hitting Tomorrow Morning… Buckle Up
[Market Watch] Google’s big jump pushed the market higher today, but something still feels a bit shaky
BLS says full October jobs data won’t be released, available figures to be included in next report
Analysis of current market and overview of the bear thesis
ABVE – The Sleeper Setup Nobody’s Talking About
PLTR Long Strangle, expecting 20%+ move into CPI after soft PPI data?
August PPI rose 2.6% YOY, which is much less than the expected 3.3%
[come in and argue] The severe downward revision in employment no. today actually means there the next Fed decision is NO RATE CUT
Powell at Jackson Hole may have underestimated the destructive impact of tariffs on inflation, the economy, and jobs.
Powell at Jackson Hole may have simultaneously underestimated the destructive impact of tariffs on inflation, the economy, and employment, a
Options are not for the weak. Thank you Papa Powell 📈
"Was Powell serious about his dovish signals at Jackson Hole?"
"Was Powell serious about his dovish signals at Jackson Hole?"
These market dips are so bullshit, it’s kinda amusing
These market dips are so bullshit, it’s kinda amusing
These market dips are so bullshit, it’s kinda amusing
Mentions
Nah people will rotate out because of PPI/CPI on wednesday
Real talk: with CPI and PPI both dropping midweek, individual earnings barely matter. A hot inflation print torches the whole board regardless of how good "MediWound" guided.
DTE are always viable for scalping the ups and downs. If you do any longer positions think about the CPI and PPI reports coming out this week. Those will give strong economic indicators and could cause a pullback or push. I was originally hoping the jobs report last Friday would come in beneficially for me but it was overall underwhelming to the market
0DTE are always viable for scalping the ups and downs. If you do any longer positions think about the CPI and PPI reports coming out this week. Those will give strong economic indicators and could cause a pullback or push. I was originally hoping the jobs report last Friday would come in beneficially for me but it was overall underwhelming to the market
CPI (8/12) PPI + jobless claims (8/13) Retail sales + consumer sentiment (8/14)
CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday
TACO wants a deal badly so if Iran doesn't playing with him, then I think we'll keep pumping. Korean will keep selling KOSPI but it seems like US markets is slowing decoupling from South Korean market. We still need TACO to cook CPI/PPI next week to. As long its within expected numbers then I think we're good to pump.
Lol I've got no clue but judging by how desperately they've been tryna pump the market and repress oil, there might be more fake news over the weekend. Whatever happens though I don't think they're gonna let this thing go over 8000/$800 on spx/spy until CPI/PPI/PCE come out over the next few weeks. 0.50% OTM is hella easy to hit though so hopefully it prints.
So, TACO cook the Job Report today. Will he cook the CPI/PPI next week too? 🤔
Exactly. Both are true. Warsh (Federal Reserve) outright said he is watching to see how the bond markets handle the short term volatility in CPI, PPI, PCE, GDP, etc. that would potentially impact federal interest rates. This is also Warsh's only forward guidance and all we have to work with until he blindly drops a rate decision on us some month.
Honestly I read CPI, PPI, PCE, GDP, and any other reports by just looking at SPY. Lmao
I'm defending him as much as I think inflation is an issue. June CPI is down, June PPI is done - all a 2 months trend after the initial supply shock, albeit short. Consumer sentiment is softening, spending in certain segment has pulled back with earnings in certain consumer defensive showing pocket of weakness to reflect this. A 50BP hike would do nothing to dent hyperscalers spending but this would hit consumers; a 100BP will likely lead to a yield inversion to prompt a likely recession. Finally, Warsh's talking hawkish has approximately the same impact on the financial markets - he clearly made the point that monetary policy is restrictive in housing but less so in the financial markets. So, if equities, particularly growth stocks highly sensitive to rates, have pulled back why does one continue to insist that Warsh isn't doing his job?
rate hikes would be rational right now due to cost-push inflation but it would also catastrophically annihilate the US economy due to its terminal addiction to cheap debt. rate cuts would further worsen stagflation, turn USD into turkish lira thereby also hurt the US economy. keeping rates stable would fail to account for economic input-costs (PPI) compounding and would have thusly the same effect as cutting rates. fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place and every move including keeping rates stable is fuel for bears and economic crashes of one kind or the other.
Official GDP growth was 0.5% annualized in q4 and 2.1% annualized in q1, this is just barely above water from being two quarters of negative gdp growth and a these numbers being actually negative is within the margin of error of revisions/measurement Since then oil has skyrocketed and data center growth have been revised down per TSM reporting, so going forward we’d expect lower gdp growth May estimate for q2 was 4.3%, current estimate for q2 is 1.7% reflecting deteriorating conditions and expectations. Will it actually be reported as negative? We’ll see The last inflation prints with PPI going up but the CPI going down and being well below expectations is a strong recession indicator
So can someone properly explain to me, the market barely pumped after CPI and PPI data and it went down %1 on friday with just the war continuing. At what point does this whole thing get priced in and we get back to ATH?
Import prices don't seem to line up with the CPI/PPI numbers.
What’s that❓ CPI 3.5%, PPI 5.5%, minimum wage can no longer afford a 1bd apartment in all 50 states, additional war funds were requested from Congress, ceasefire shot dead, MOU not fully understood, missiles in flight, & the most layoffs since 2008❓❓ Shhhhiiiieeeeetttt, I’m all in 😎💎🤲
Not sure how many times I’ve repeated this, but if 🫵 went long after 3.5% CPI 5.5% PPI Requests for additional war funds MOU cancellation Strait closure Repeated missile launches Then 🫵 deserve whatever happens 😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Capex = bad now Cpi/PPI = Nobody believes TSMC = see capex problem
Half this thread is arguing from vibes, so I pulled the actual mid-April vs. now numbers. The interesting part: the two things that *should* move if markets were stressed about the war have gone the other way. * **VIX:** 19.31 (Apr) → 15.67 now. Volatility compressed, it didn't spike. * **WTI crude:** $93.64 → $79.20. Oil — the main channel a Middle East conflict actually transmits into markets — is *below* its April level, not above it. * **SPY:** 708 → 751 (+6%). * **Inflation's the split:** CPI YoY actually eased (3.78% → 3.47%), while PPI YoY rose (9.43% → 10.11%). Consumer prices cooled a touch; producer prices didn't. * **Fed funds:** flat (3.64% → 3.63%). So it reads less like "the market is ignoring the war" and more like "the risk gauges that would actually price the war — vol and oil — have both eased since April." Whether that's the market being right or being complacent is the real debate; the numbers themselves aren't ambiguous. All from FRED / price history, every figure cited so nobody has to take my word for it: Copied: [https://app.avarieux.com/r/vyoWyF8wMoNR](https://app.avarieux.com/r/vyoWyF8wMoNR) . One caveat the pull itself flags — the PPI here is All-Commodities (PPIACO), not BLS Final Demand, so it won't line up with a headline PPI print.
CPI and PPI were lower than expected.
CPI and PPI were surprisingly good this week? I don't know what you're even talking about I mean if you doubt the numbers it's one thing, but they massively improved from last month on paper
One day it will be the start of the next financial apocalypse. CPI and PPI were out of control this week yet the market pumped and ignored the numbers. Oil reserves at an all time low. Trump starting up the way again with no plan as usual. Eventually the music stops.
It all comes back to currency debasement. The government is spending trillions more than it's taking in even during times of relative global peace. That's causing a lot of inflation and makes real interest rates quite low even though rates are higher than they used to be. CPI and PPI underreport true inflation systematically. How are you going to protect your purchasing power? This is why people buy stocks regardless of the news or fundamentals. You don't really have a ton of alternatives. Gold and real estate are even more overvalued compared to historical norms than stocks, so there's basically nowhere to hide
Why did you buy Puts on the day of the ppi? Did you think the CPI data would be good and PPI bad? The day was always going to green on the US index side
If 🫵 lost monies today Remember 🫵 elected to purchase equities after 3.5% CPI 5.5% PPI MOU cancellations War fund requests 6AM EST missile strike Congratulations 👏👏👏🥳
Imagine citing CPI and PPI like they mean anything in an admin that cooks the books so blantantly 😂
PPI = declining inventories?
all the cards are falling into place for the market to skyrocket in August. CPI, PPI and Warsh statements are pointing to high beta momentum month. this means stocks like $ASTS will rip. Be positioned and thank me later.
Bro WTF. Micron -10%, all semis are down. What happend??? Any news guys? CPI and PPI was good? Wasn't it?
PPI increase is short of expected, so why are we dipping today ?????
They are trying to Shake paper hands but it’s inevitable. CPI and PPI cooked by Gordon Ramsay, market doesn’t care about war anymore and Russia/Ukraine deal was mentioned as a possibility. WE. GOING. UP.
CPI and PPI came in cool. Just a matter of time before the pump
You would think that this shit would be ripping off the PPI print.
Nothing is good enough for this market anymore. Good data, great earnings. VIX rises on a positive PPI release - WTF?
Hmm this may potentially player a bigger role in a correction later; but it’s not clear to me yet. Market is crabbing off PPI and CPI in balance with each other today. The only question is there any asymmetry between the two indicators that have the same oil cost cause?
MMS with the fakeout. Lmao ASML beats and dumps, PPI great, and for some reason we fucking dump
always, especially with negative PPI MOM
Nah both CPI and PPI lowered by about the same amount. Nothingburger.
PPI nothingburger. Might gap fill but that about it.
Uh so PPI much more important to the market than CPI or PCE I guess?
I guess PPI numbers are looking too cooked to be believed
CPI and PPI were bullish af, ASML (euro poor memory company) beat tf out of earnings. Memory rally is back on
PPI is a brand of penis pumps
Just called out of work so I can take 40mg of addy xr on an empty stomach and stim goon to PPI
LOL, a literal criminal administration, cooked CPI/PPI, wars etc. market near all time highs. Nothing to see here folks....MOVE ALONG!!!
PPI/CPI is fake when its good and real when its bad?
The algo on spy was on a delayed timer and bought exactly 15 minutes after PPI was released lol
Fair, algo pump at 8:30 after PPI
How to we invest in PPI 5.5% is a pretty good return
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US PPI falls to 5.5%, lower than expectations
PPI Headline down 0.3% MoM vs expectations to be flat, 0.0%. Large revisions from 1.1% down to 0.6% as well. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/07/15/wholesale-prices-unexpectedly-declined-0-point-3-percent-in-june-on-big-drop-in-gasoline.html
PPI -0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.0% PPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PPI 5.5% YoY, Exp. 6.2% PPI Core 4.7% YoY, Exp. 5.1% I demand SPY 755
How’s PPI as 5.5 considered low nowadays 😂
Rug pull on PPI, Shrek on spy
CPI was surprised good, so MMs are prepared for PPI. So no big pump.....yet (maybe).
PPI 5.5 vs 6.0 estimates, chefs kiss
Good PPI but Future didn't move much. So I sold. We should pump hard after the market open now. No need to thank me 👍
Where is the cooked PPI pumps
PPI was cooked to perfection. I sleeb
funny enough SPY pre market pump was bigger than the PPI pump
I like my PPI well done thank you
No one gives a fuck about PPI anyway just pump for crime reasons please and thanks
PPI -0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.0% PPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PPI 5.5% YoY, Exp. 6.2% PPI Core 4.7% YoY, Exp. 5.1%
Bulls celebrate SPY +0.01% after PPI report.
PPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.3% vs 0.0% EST Core PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% vs 0.3% EST
Futures dipping before PPI... think they know something. Think we going up.
Dump before the PPI pump
BLS doing some last minute PPI cooking by changing every plus sign to a negative sign with white-out
# PPI is gonna have to also cure cancer and achieve world peace for markets to pump today
Fake PPI numbers will pump it again at 8:30
PPI cooler than Preparation H on my hemorrhoids.
Smells like numbers are cooking this morning for PPI. 🧑🍳
PPI is going to be comparably more bearish than CPI. US manufacturers keep absorbing the costs of Oil supply shock, tariffs etc.
PPI better cooked otherwise Im suing
You got an hour to cook the PPI it better be good enough for a 1% gap up
Hola retardos. How's your PPI this morning?
Guys whats gonna happen when the PPI data comes and Fed chair warsh testimony???
theyre bombing premarket before PPI? interestingggg
PPI might make you sore in about an hour…
Cherry on top to this rugpull premarket is that PPI won't be cooked hard enough per yesterday's expectations, giving MM's the excuse to orchestrate this dump
PPI release soon. Don't think will be hawkish
PPI priced in, more balls till Kevin Wart starts talking.
Bers gonna get that PPI in their anoos tomorrow lmfaooo
CPI, PPI, it don't matter, Lakers in 🖐️
cooked PPI reports gonna pump the market in the morning
if PPI runs hot again tomm, markets probably won't freak out too much, CPI already came in soft, and that's what really moves the needle for the Fed's favorite inflation gauge (PCE). But it would still be annoying
*how far do you think we go up when PPI comes in
shh.... Nobody wants to hear logic when stonks goes up. CPI AND PPI will come cold. Oil is going to keep going down since we have more oil now than ever before even if oil producers are all shut down. Down is up. Left is right. Every thing is OK as long as stonks go up. Now go back to sleep.
If PPI isn’t up, books are definitely cooked. COG on B2B side have been increasing across the board due to Strait closure.
I guess my rationale was if yields (talking 10yr duration and longer) are continuing higher, it’s because the bond market is anticipating higher inflation for longer. With CPI under expectations, and perhaps PPI following, there would be less pressure on the fed to hike as has resurfaced in the news cycle in recent months. With less pressure on yields, bonds become attractive again as a risk off outlet considering the current geopolitical tensions. Inflation pushes up bond yields making bonds unattractive as a safe place to park money compared to stocks, but when the tune shifts and yields appear to have topped, that would introduce a decent window for institutions to allocate more heavily into bonds, both for the acceptable yield and the expectation of appreciation in the bond holdings as an asset as yields come down further and the price of the bonds rises. Genuinely having a hard time making a concise statement here.. I’m just thinking as that as stock valuations continue to stretch and the world continues to become more unstable, wouldn’t the perception of bond yields topping out in this environment warrant a rotation into safety that could initiate a cascade of stock selling? Idk man def a regard but trying to grasp the complexity of the markets lmfao.