Reddit Posts
Interview of James A. Mai and Ben Hockett from Cornwall Capital
UBS takes $665M hit for RMBS matter in Q1; looks forward to Credit Suisse merger
2023-04-11 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Abraham Lincoln
Hot Stocks: RV stocks drop; CHGG downgrade; NRGV surges on raised forecast; RMBS climbs
Credit Suisse looks for capital from Middle East, top banker to leave
Wall Street On Parade Jun 30, 2022: Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase Have Been Trading Like Clones for Two Months; Both Are Down Almost 30 Percent Year-to-Date: “Looking like one is tied with an umbilical cord to Deutsche Bank has its perils on Wall Street.”
How to pick up 2 Tax Free Public Companies & join a Future DIVIDEND at pennies per share?
Only Penny stock that can align a new common investor with world class investors with tremendous track record restructuring very similar co
Only Penny stock that can align a new common investor with world class investors with tremendous track record restructuring very similar companies to this Penny Stock.
Holding my AMC, but also diversifying more, thoughts on RMBS?
Still Holding AMC in my diversified portfolio, What’s everyone’s thoughts on RMBS
Does NOVC 2018 14A Proxy hold the real narrative on restructuring NOVC so as to use 730M NOLs + Rights that control most of the collateral assets in $3B RMBS portfolio 600 Bpts WAC? I say YES
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
SoftBank sits on Billion dollar stock under it's Sub Fortress
Mentions
BWXT, DRS, LMB, LNTH, OSIS, PL, PLAB, PSN, Q, RMBS, and gonna buy a few more XLU leaps. Trying to focus on mid/small caps for the IIJA, Naval Upgrades, Onshoring, and Space Industry for the next few years. Fingers crossed.
RMBS has RAM in its name — why no pumpy pump?
Any chips: I like RMBS/ALAB/CRDO, ride GLXY back up or gamble on MP with the chyna meeting
Holy shit all 3 positions I opened at the bell this morning are up since I bought them RMBS, MP, AMSC. This hasn’t happened since *checks notes* this has never happened
My AMKR and RMBS are burning my portfolio to the ground…. Let’s see what UNH and UPS do…
If you don’t buy this RMBS dip you deserve to be generationally poor
I didn't see this post but found it searching for others in SanDisk. Wondering what your projections are for earnings. I have 2- 50 calls expire Dec. My gut says sell one and buy out the other. Basically take the money and run into something else. My brain says buy them both and hold this forever. We know the run lately has been explosive. If earnings don't impress we will have a set back. However, it seems the market makers are in love with it. All of my other stocks have ran hard but not this hard. MU, CRDO, RMBS,PSTG, NVT, TER, VRT. My initial strategy was buy 2 calls if they run hard sell one call buy the other with the profits. Yes, it has worked out quite well. Just wondering what you think?
The stage is set . After MU earnings tomorrow , the rest STX , WDC , SNDK , RMBS will be down at 10 to 15 percent . Might as well buy my PUTS early .
Yup. I received a few messages from them recently saying that their service is back up. I haven't used IV in many years though. Reddit and a few other places replaced them for me. I was never into RMBS though.
Another big day for RMBS, next chip rocket
anyone looking at RMBS?
Nice to see a cautious stance based on price action of stocks rather than all the other reasons people claim the market is going to crash. You are right to be cautious here, as the market is showing typical signs of exhaustion. However, this phase can last longer than we expect. In the mean time, I'll take my ridiculous gains in stocks like SNDK and RMBS and many others that seem to defy gravity, and wait for that big red candle before getting defensive.
ALAB and CRDO plus AVGO. If Alab is too high, can get into Labx for exposure. Anything AI that is helping to build data centers is my focus. I've held all of these for a minute, and all are 100 over my buy price. I also love VST and it is currently in a buy zone. RMBS and SNDK with NTNX are low lying stocks beginning their blow up. Data centers are being built everywhere so for the next 5 years expect these companies companies to blow up. Of course I own all the above WSB stock plays but seriously real investors aren't just playing them. Anet and Net and NVDA. I can go on definitely keeping my Sofi and Rddt.
RMBS sliding but I loaded up on long calls
I almost forgot myself. It was a very cool time but I knew a few dudes who got wiped out in the early 2000s. I sold most of my stocks mid 1999. I made a lot of money on INTC, RMBS and COMS.
🫡, have you looked at GRRR, UAMY, RMBS?
RAMBUS($RMBS) to the 🚀🌖(not financial advice-just research it). You need memory (RAM) to run these AI stuff but being left out money wise…
I’m short STX, long RMBS 🤌
Casual 2x on my $RMBS calls fuck yeah
RMBS MSFT HOOD i guess technically also GOOGL
CLS, RMBS, CDNS, and AMKR all look pretty solid
*But my RMBS calls still gonna print tho right?*
$RMBS ahead of earnings
Go with ARM or RMBS.
$RMBS before earnings btw
Kinda gonna do some homework on RMBS. Earnings coming up and strong ties to the advanced Chip market and steady growth.
Meanwhile HIMX QRVO RMBS TXN are sleeping sound with no activity
My opinion is I choose SMH so I don't have to try and divine such subtleties.... If I was to pick a second chip stock after NVDA though, it wouldn't be any of these, with AVGO (and TSM) the obvious choice. Next I'd look at all the big chip equipment stocks, then ALAB, MU, RMBS, CRDO and maybe MRVL. Of your choices tho, I'd go with AMD, as it has a larger fan base that would respond very positively to any really good news.
And I’ve worked in CMBS for 7+ years so I’m very familiar with how these deals work too. Go ask your bosses who worked in RMBS before the GFC how those deals lined up compared to the ones today. I guarantee you the credit quality is substantially better. Fannie Mae RMBS default rates have topped 1% since 2009 and for good reason. The industry has much tougher underwriting and credit standards than a generation ago
Just read my original comment, its e x tremble simple and straightforward. I've been working in RMBS for 10+ years and worked on countless shitty deals rated by Moodys so please enlighten me if you think something I said was wrong.
$NXPI Reports Q1 EPS $2.64, consensus $2.60 Reports Q1 revenue $2.84B, consensus $2.83B. Sees Q2 EPS $2.46-$2.86, consensus $2.65 Sees Q2 revenue $2.8B-$3B, consensus $2.85. Sees Q2 gross margin 55.8%-56.8%. "NXP delivered quarterly revenue of $2.84 billion, in-line with the midpoint of guidance. NXP's first-quarter results and guidance for the second quarter underpin a cautious optimism that NXP continues to effectively navigate through a challenging set of market conditions. Sounds like the CEO is stepping down as well. $RMBS Reports Q1 EPS 56c, consensus 50c Reports Q1 revenue $166.7M, consensus $162.83M. "We had an excellent start to 2025, beating revenue and earnings expectations for Q1 with very strong cash from operations and record product revenue from memory interface chips," said Luc Seraphin, chief executive officer of Rambus. "Through our ongoing strategic execution and robust business model, we continued our market leadership in core DDR5 chip products and progress in new products, positioning us well to deliver long-term growth and continued value to stockholders." Sees Q2 adjusted product revenue $77M-$83M Sees Q2 adjusted licensing billings $64M-$70M.
The Chinese economy is relatively bad by some metrics and people are feeling the pressure but it's also quite overblown by western media. On the housing price collapse, China has long built "ghost cities" to meet demand before demand even exists. Chinese policy has always been housing for all and it's why housing ownership is 90% compared to a lot of western countries. China can easily bailout housing via the central bank and Treasury buying RMBS like we saw during GFC and covid but we haven't seen this yet. I'm guessing this will be the last ditch policy if things become worse. On the deflation crisis, it's more a tale of supply side deflation rather than demand side so it's not as bad as the numbers suggest. However China will need to increase domestic demand as the tariffs start to bite as all the goods produced need to go somewhere. Some US exports will be bought by other nations but most will be domestic.
If RMBS goes below $50 I’m buying in big. Also like MU at $85, CNM at $42, and CFLT under $28, if we see any of those prices again soon.
Depends on the parameters of “investing loss”. I purchased $10K of NVDA in 2002. Sold it the next day at a $1000 loss. HAD I held it to this day (like INTC and RMBS), it would have been worth up to $18M. I repurchased it in ‘06, so I don’t dwell too much. Oh, and FUCK INTC!
Sticking with GOOG forever. As for semis, KLAC had great results in the WFE area so AMAT should do fine next week too. RMBS is a good midcap in the semi space and had great results last week as well. Will nibble on AMZN if (big if) it sees $200 again.
RMBS still growing at a great pace. Solid ER.
Most mortgages are pooled into mortgage backed securities. When you package 30 years mortgages into MBS, you end up with something that has duration similar to the duration of a 7 to 10 year Treasury. Most residential mortgages are pooled into RMBS which are guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Max or Ginnie Mae. These MBS are therefore guaranteed by a quasi-government entities and carry a AAA credit rating similar to that of the US federal government. Therefore, MBS are comparable to 10Yr Treasuries in credit quality and duration and are priced relative to 10Y Treasuries. MBS having more complexity and prepayment/convexity risk are priced at a premium to the Treasury counterpart. Of course this is simplified and individual MBS aren't directly comparable to 10Y Treasury at every instance but rather may be most comparable to 8.5 years Treasuries or so depending on what exactly is being packaged, coupon and so on. But this creates a very strong correlation between MBS and upper intermediate term treasuries yields, and this is what drives the mortgage rates available to consumers. Going further, the MBS market also enables consumers to access 30 year borrowings at a lower rate more comparable to a 10 year borrowing rate (plus premium) without a significant credit spread, due to the quasi government sponsored credit enhancement. Fannie and Freddie were supposed to guarantee the defaults in RMBS profitably and not rely on the government, but they failed to do so in 2008 and were bailed out. Hence the whole politics and controversy around Fannie and Freddie, which were supposed to be independent and profitable corporations. This has resulted in Fannie/Freddie RMBS being considered to be basically US government securities.
No, RMBS which is residential side.
What a crock of shit. whoever wrote this article does not fundamentally understand what they are talking about. A lot of banks own RMBS on their balance sheets, mostly through agency guaranteed securities. Yes, these are at lower than market rates since many were bought 2020-2022. They could be an issue if a bank had liquidity issues like First Republic or SVB. But, most banks are well capitalized. The liquidity issues of FRB and SVB were unique to them. So, banks don’t need to sell the underwater securities and since they are agency secured (essentially no credit risk), they can just wait for them to pay off. Also, the article states that “Many of those HTM portfolio loans are approaching maturity…” as if it were bad. This would actually be GOOD for the banks, since debt paid off at lower rates can be invested into higher rated debt. It’s just a poorly written article made to sound sensational in order to get clicks.
Good thing bottom of the barrel office properties aren’t packaged into RMBS then
Dawg, the losses in question relate to RMBS. And CRE properties that back CMBS are primarily class A. Just for context class an offices are still seeing high occupancy and extremely high rents. Not everything is some shitty outdated 1950s office lmao
The underlying assets of an RMBS is not office, idiot.
CMBS is a fraction of the RMBS market.
Stored assets in 2008 were toxic. Like half the home builders went bankrupt following 2008 - market was heavily oversupplied and people were doing anything and everything to sell homes to people who could never afford them that knew nothing of the terms they were signing up for. If and when those people defaulted once their teaser rates were up banks were left holding the bag of homes they gave 500K loans on that were now worth 200K and when you consider the holding costs they were literally better off selling then for 100K. The underlying assets for modern RMBS are new, class A residential properties that are cash flowing, in very high demand, and have holding periods of multiple decades. Their paper losses are 1:1 correlated to interest rates and are only a liquidity problem in the short term, the underlying cash flow is still good it just can’t go as far when cap rates are higher due to COL. If you can’t see the difference between those 2 situations, you should not waste time talking about the topic. These are not bad securities, these are paper losses on long hold high cash flow Class A assets that have single digit vacancy rates and low to mid single digit terminal cap rates.
Yeah but the unrealized losses are on RMBS which is entirely due to interest rates. The underlying assets are occupied, cash flowing, high occupancy, and are in high demand. Irrelevant to this but retail market is extremely low vacancy, high demand right now. Just not in random mid western shitter malls.
Took the market till the open, but then RMBS jumped up. Report looked kinda meh, but valuation intrigues me for growth, they seem to be doing well in their memory end markets atm
My TMDX put gonna print, too bad AMKR and RMBS calls failed
a couple mid caps with actual compounding potential: ACLS CELH RMBS One that is nowhere near a small cap but has all the signs of a huge compounder is PDD Holdings. 50% ROE & 28% ROC. Forward revenue and earnings growing beyond 20%. Trading at only 10x forward earnings.
Have we forgotten how CMBS and RMBS (structured real estate) grew like a bubble and blew up the ocean?
Blistering barnicles; this is so dead; this shit with Cedar; it's like acquiring ABACUS and flying upside while instutitional sits short. Lord this will be painful. Cedar REIT focuses on "primary focus on grocery-anchored shopping centers in the Northeast" Every CMBS owner or RMBS owner I know; sees a decline; and higher insurance prices. With banks not willing to lend. This is dead in the water; let alone bid/ask man. But well done on the profit.
I don't follow RMBS either :( I'm bullish on the semis industry as a whole though, sorry to be so little help lol.
Copy. It's got earnings tomorrow, so too much of a gamble for me anyways. How do you feel about RMBS above $48? Looks like it could be clear sailing. However, everything is contingent on NVDA earnings. I'm hoping this might be a little more in your wheelhouse...?
It works the same way: Even with residential mortgages or securities the banks are holding at pandemic lows, they are still being provided the rate of return promised, unless there are defaults. So the return is lower than the current rate, but they would only take a loss of the decide to sell the mortgage or security before maturing which would result it a lower return, no one is buying a 2.5% mortgage at PAR value. If they hold till maturity they'll receive the full value of the mortgage when it was issued. Also, holding RMBS paper is as good as holding a Treasury bond in the Fed's eyes for capital reserve purposes, so it's healthy for banks. Banks do not actively invest in the stock market, I believe they can only do so with clients' money specifically designated for this use, I forget which regulation this is, it was created after the GFC in 2008/2009, I only remember it because I had to do so much training on it.
RMBS pools are intentionally geographically dispersed. You could short the stocks of small and mid sized Florida based banks since regional banks make 80% of commercial real estate loans… but you’ll probably have equally poor luck trying to time the market as I’ve had in Vegas. 🤷♀️
Just curious, what would you have considered without this advice? Index etf set and forget is a pretty basic and successful way of investing. Almost everyone would agree with his advice. And yes. If you’re young it likely ok to pick up individual companies you really like. This is where your appetite for risk would play in. Big difference in buying NVDA v. RMBS v. RXRX. There are levels to the speculation. Being young afford you more risk. You can always tapper back to safer investments as you progress to retirement
Plus 10% of their deposits are escrows from loan servicers (CMBS and RMBS) and lenders, which require the deposit bank to be rated higher than junk. This article explains it: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/04/some-nycb-deposits-may-be-at-risk-after-another-moodys-downgrade.html
I wonder how will RMBS play out vs LSCC
You'll get a nice return average to the industry but open yourself to exposure from more cyclical stocks and less financially sound stocks. Instead buy a few of the most financially sound, profitable members of the industry - do detailed due diligence to be sure you're confident in your picks. My best performers: NVDA; AVGO; ASML My worst: RMBS; ON (though ON is now undervalued)
Didn't mean to imply the stock market is zero sum. However the question still remains in my mind, if there's a net of trillions still flowing in the stock market, where is it coming out of? It's a lot of money for some small cap failing companies to equal the balance. Is it big international money coming in, is it sidelined under the mattress money, or just more printing? If residential and commercial real estate is doing badly, which it would be in high interest and low occupancy environment post covid, then the big insurance and pension funds dealing with RMBS and CMBS should be fuked from both sides and crying losses no? Either they are hedged extremely well, will start failing at some point, or they've been bailed out already. Only the last situation lifts the markets. And to your last point, if that's the case inflation will remain high and if the fed is really about their word, interest rates will then remain high as well. The stock markets were high on pricing in cuts starting from March, atleast now we know that won't happen and the Markets went even more ripping. Anyhow I went long on some stuff now so can't complain. Just trying to make sense of it but can't lol.
An oldie company like RMBS shows that the show ends one day.
I wasn’t surprised that the call options price rose as did the stock price. I was just shocked at how much. I wanted to make sure I was correct. I’ve been profitable on CC’s on AMZN, RMBS, PLTR, TSLA, and currently SQ. Besides the CC’s, all of their stock prices increased. I got caught owning TSLA when their stock price took a deep dive mid December, but bought the CC back for nothing and sold another at a lower strike. Then of course the stock roared back and I rolled it up. Each time carefully figuring profit/loss on the CC. I spend hours studying to make sure I pick the right stock to run CC’s on….high premium, solid stock on the rise, stay away from earnings day, etc. So far so good. I’m gonna give ITM calls a shot. Just a little taste first, before I really dive in. When my girlfriend asks me what I’m doing on my phone, I tell her I’m in school studying. Lol! Thanks for the feedback.
fundamentals cut: EXEL +1%, SAIA +3%, RMBS +20%
Fundamentals: HRB RMBS AVGO
Yes, but in order to get a 2008 type of meltdown everthing needs to be tied to commercial real estate. In 2008 you gave companies holding mortgages, RMBS, CDOs with RMBS, Credit Default Swaps on RMBS, and basically bets on a bet on bets that people would make their mortgage payments. It was a house of cards. As far as I understand, Commerical Real Estate has securitization (CMBS), but not at the levels of RMBS, I'm sure some of the loans are held on their books by banks.
Look, I'm not a professional but I used to hate on CNBC/Cramer a lot but after years of daily watching I think it's quite clear that it's just a hodgepodge of people giving their opinions - and once in a while there are some really, really great ideas that come from a CNBC guest - LLY and RMBS are a couple that really outperformed the market
Sigh. Are you basing any of this off of actual stats or are you just writing things? There have been so many changes to the mortgage market, those things that caused the crash in 2008 have been regulated. I work in the RMBS market, I can see individual mortgage statistics, the underlying mortgage market is extremely healthy... But please keep talking about the coming "crash and recession", the same one everyone has been talking about for 3 years. At this rate you'll be right eventually right?
Sorry buddy, but he's right. I work in the RMBS market, I can see individual mortgage statistics. The market is extremely healthy, if you're expecting a 2008 crash I've got some very bad news for you. Most homeowners are in very good situations as far as equity, typically over at or over 30%, ARM loans are 7/1 or 10/1, so they'll have plenty of time to refinance.
Would have happened already if the Fed hadn't completely propped up the residential market by becoming pretty much the only buyer of RMBS
No one actually reads what I write. I work in RMBS, yet I have access to UNDERLYING DATA. This data tells me everything about the pool of loans, interest rates, loan amounts, type of housing, Loan to Value Ratio, FICO scores. With this I can see the health of the housing market. You're also ignoring the fact that most mortgages are at or under 3% interest. There is no evidence that a supply dump is coming in the next 6 months, it doesn't make any sense and sounds like wishful thinking. With the equity people have in their homes, they'll work out deals with their services/ lenders well before the threat of foreclosures occurs. No one is trying to get out of a house with a sub 3% interest rate, I'm not sure where your rational is coming from. If you want to wait 20 years for the boomers to die off, go right ahead, most likely their children will inherit those homes and only a small portion will hit the market. The doom and gloom you're looking for just isn't in the cards, unless something extremely drastic happens, like 2008 (which is extremely unlikely to occur given the increased regulations in the housing market) the market will remain healthy.
Ah yes, the RMBS market, which has always been a great predictor of the housing market being healthy or not... There is a lot of equity, but rates are slowly choking the market. There is also a huge amount of supply coming in 6 months or so(can't remember the exact time-frame). Price pressure will mount, and more people will try to get out of the market. With soaring credit card debt, and student loans coming back on soon, more people will be pressured on their mortgages. And when unemployment starts to tick up, more delinquency and default will rise. Also, more and more supply will hit the market, as boomers die off.
I work in RMBS so I can see the underlying data. Housing is healthy as far as the statistics go, you're not going to see large amounts of foreclosures or short sales because most homeowners have substantial equity, ARM loans are heavily regulated and most people are opting for 7/1 or 10/1 ARMs. If you're referring to agents who want to do more business, well that's neither here nor there.
I see it as a "things were never really that bad for REITs as a whole". REITs typically operate in the world of stabilized assets, so it's really a long term cash flow and cost of capital game. They are hurt when cap rates get really high not only because of valuation for sales but also on the loans they put in their properties. The 10-year Treasury getting so high keeps pushing cap rates higher. That stable cash flow is still there though, as most REITs have credit quality tenants on long term leases. When rates stabilize, valuations will stabilize and increase. Homebuilders look for margin on quick turns and a low carry cost on subdivision infrastructure and land development. They benefit from scarcity/housing policy, capital markets/RMBS, demographics, and commodity pricing. Because it's just a (big) slice of the housing market it's hard to really use homebuilders to say all that much about real estate in general. At least REITs reflect all the asset classes
They disappeared by the end of 2020 when they dropped interest rates to zero and the Fed became the only buyer of RMBS
I think you're discounting 2 things. -Most homeowners now have significant equity in their homes. Those who purchased their homes several years ago have paid down principal and have had their home values increase substantially. Those who recently purchased probably put down a minimum of 20% of the purchase price to make an attractive offer in such a tight housing market. -The most popular ARM loans has been 7/1 or 10/1. It's given people time to refinance if rates drop. 3/1 ARMs aren't popular unless a person isn't planning on living in a home for very long. Source: I work in the RMBS market and can see underlying loan data
Since you didn’t guess upper right, they figured you’d be a real HR liability at Centaur Capital. If you can’t nail this, how could you possibly apply Black Sholes option pricing to model a Satyr RMBS investment? Pricing triple put credit default swaps for Cerberus Capital? Forget it, they made the right call, sorry buddy.
It's not just about reducing risk via lowering the std deviation of your returns, it has to do with diversification. Historically bond prices have had very low correlation with equity prices (this was not true for 2010-2020 but I digress). If your equity portfolio takes a large hit, it will take a disproportionately large move in the other direction to make up for it. For example, a 50% loss this year will require a 200% return the next year to get to even -- not to even mention the two years' opportunity cost. It's tempting to look at absolute return over the 'long term" but you must realize our investment horizons are far, far shorter than the so-called long term. If you are in your mid-40's, a 100% equity portfolio has a high chance of suffering catastrophic losses. You are at risk of having to delay your retirement hoping the market recovers, or accepting your losses and accepting a lower withdrawal rate. I have a 100% equity portfolio too but I'm looking to rebalance to include about 10-20% fixed income, especially things like RMBS and floating rate notes.
Actually love how under the radar SMCI and RMBS are, semi names that have much more growth potential than NVDA 🤫😎
IBD is _extremely_ good at identifying stocks to keep an eye on. At the same time, during the Covid era, their choices of when to buy are nothing short of idiotic. I've seen them write many, many times that a stock "was approaching the buy zone" even though it was up 75%+ from a low point. FFTY is up 8% year to date, about the same as VOO, but if you shifted around their buying... essentially they buy things way too late. And then they also hold until losing a principle. Very odd philosophy, which I think is largely due to them using rules from decades ago rather than ones understanding 1) pandemic 2) FEDinflation policies 3) lack of a recession lots of people wrongly assumed would occur. Again, they have been outstanding in identifying winning stocks (like TGLS, ACLS and RMBS) but act very illogically in terms of buying and selling. Anyway, very good tool _to give you ideas_, but don't do what they say.
SMCI and RMBS basically going parabolic
Pre-market tech gainers: $RMBS +4%, $CSIQ +3.3%, $DT +2.5%, $SNPS +2.3%
$RMBS absurd relative strength in semis