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Interview of James A. Mai and Ben Hockett from Cornwall Capital
UBS takes $665M hit for RMBS matter in Q1; looks forward to Credit Suisse merger
2023-04-11 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Abraham Lincoln
Hot Stocks: RV stocks drop; CHGG downgrade; NRGV surges on raised forecast; RMBS climbs
Credit Suisse looks for capital from Middle East, top banker to leave
Wall Street On Parade Jun 30, 2022: Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase Have Been Trading Like Clones for Two Months; Both Are Down Almost 30 Percent Year-to-Date: “Looking like one is tied with an umbilical cord to Deutsche Bank has its perils on Wall Street.”
How to pick up 2 Tax Free Public Companies & join a Future DIVIDEND at pennies per share?
Only Penny stock that can align a new common investor with world class investors with tremendous track record restructuring very similar co
Only Penny stock that can align a new common investor with world class investors with tremendous track record restructuring very similar companies to this Penny Stock.
Holding my AMC, but also diversifying more, thoughts on RMBS?
Still Holding AMC in my diversified portfolio, What’s everyone’s thoughts on RMBS
Does NOVC 2018 14A Proxy hold the real narrative on restructuring NOVC so as to use 730M NOLs + Rights that control most of the collateral assets in $3B RMBS portfolio 600 Bpts WAC? I say YES
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
$NOVC see massive increase in Short Volume. Who would short a penny stock controlled by Fortress parent SoftBank, EJFcap.com + MassMutual Barings & co investors running Board of Directors. ALL shares out outstanding per 2020 10K are owned by these investors + sm count. Yet > 30M shares trade 1.1.21
SoftBank sits on Billion dollar stock under it's Sub Fortress
Mentions
You’re 100% right, i’s not a surgical strike like the 2008 RMBS market because the loans are too custom made for that. It’s way more of a blunt instrument play imo. The mechanics are basically just proxy hedging: Investors are shorting the stock and buying CDS on the credit of the major BDCs (Ares, Apollo, Blackstone, etc.). Since these firms are the middle-men, if their underlying private credit books start to rot, the market assumes these firms take the hit first. They're using broad credit indices (CDX, etc.) that have high weightings of these credit managers. It’s a macro hedge, not a single name play. You’re betting on the whole sector catching fire rather than picking off individual toxic loans. You're right that it creates huge basis risk, but that’s the reality of how you hedge a market that’s this opaque.
You're connecting some important dots here. The private credit boom does have some structural similarities to pre-2008 CLO/CDO dynamics - opacity, leverage, and the "yield-chasing" behavior from insurance companies and pension funds starved of fixed income returns. The key differences worth noting: - Private credit is floating rate (largely), so rising rates hurt borrowers, not the instruments themselves - The investor base is mostly institutional, not retail-exposed through securitization chains - Most direct lenders do have real underwriting teams vs. the "originate to distribute" model that broke in 2008 That said, the stress points you're identifying are real: covenant-lite structures, "PIK" (payment in kind) where interest is just added to principal rather than paid, and valuations that haven't been marked to market during this rate cycle. The "shorting machine" angle is interesting - who exactly is building synthetic exposure to short private credit? That's a much harder instrument to construct than CDS on RMBS was. Do you have more detail on the specific mechanisms being used?
You're wrong, for a number of reasons: 1. Private credit loans are way less levered (and therefore risky) than RMBS. 2. Private credit loans, while perhaps somewhat exposed to "buying at the top" via multiple expansion, are ultimately loans against a cash generative business vs. RMBS loans which are backed by crappy, inflated housing that has no intrinsic economic value. 3. ABS is often pointed to as the bogeyman of '08 by people who don't know what they're talking about, but the real differentiating feature of the '08 crash was not ABS per se but rather the scale it was able to achieve through synthetic ABS. In order to amass such a hugely levered, highly-correlated pile of long bets on US housing, banks had to use credit default swaps to replace the supply of subprime MBS that they were running out of in \~2005 - this by the way is also why it touched the insurance sector, since their insurance contracts formed the basis of cash flows in a synthetic RMBS offering. In this way, the already under-estimated correlation between mortgage delinquencies in different parts of the country was compounded by a synthetics market that effectively created the appearance of more diversification while really just increasing levered exposure to the same correlated part of the real economy. 4. The mark-to-market mechanics which accelerated the unwinding of RMBS and synthetic RMBS in 2008 and made it so catastrophic to the highly levered institutions which held these assets at the time have no analogue today. The valuation dynamics of private equity are by and large much more decentralized and less conflicted than the practices observed in '08, in which large issuer banks acting in a conflicted capacity as both principal and agent while structuring synthetic RMBS would have free rein to participate on both sides of the trade and then set prices marks favorably for their own position. In short, there is a difference between pre-08 and post-08 when dodgy loans moved into the shadow banking sector...the difference is that if these loans blow up the carnage is largely constrained to PC funds and the LPs who invest in them.
I can say this; He came on Thursday and Friday,RMBS increased more than %6 .So market received this news as positive. And target price was $114 and increased the same day to $125.
Oh I see, like RMBS? They have been going through it recently
Both announced earnings yesterday or two days ago, don't remember with RMBS. That is probably moving things more than anything else.
RMBS reported a supply chain issue that they have solved - sounded like one of their manufacturers produced some dud chips that made it through testing. Problem was solved already but that never matters.
RMBS reported a supply chain issue that they have solved - sounded like one of their manufacturers produced some dud chips that made it through testing. Problem was solved already but that never matters.
RMBS recovering a bit. Glad the calls I kept were longer dated. ETN and PYPL drilling.
RMBS stock goes down after earnings call but their guidance is bullish for SNDK, as if it needed any more hype # Goddamn this stock can’t stop, won’t stop
Idk this market is gey but I like RMBS leaps at this price
RMBS is interesting under 100. Will be looking at some leaps
How many people had access to RMBS earnings the last hour of earnings? Straight up tanked followed by the huge drop AH
RMBS had different fate.
They were priced to perfection and after their killer 5 yr run I'm betting people are taking profits with this one. It seems they have a higher tax bill as well compared to previously. Management pointed to new tax legislation from the OBBBA. Looks like they are getting hit with R&D capitalization from it. And even though they aren't SaaS, I bet they are being affected by the broad software sell offs we have been seeing. "If you’re wondering about the tax bill, look at the OBBBA (July 2025). While it fixed the R&D capitalization for US-based work, it left foreign R&D stranded in 15-year amortization. For a global chip designer like RMBS, this creates a messy tax provision that ate into the Q4 beat. They are essentially being punished for being a global innovator during a year of shifting tax legislation." https://kahnlitwin.com/blogs/tax-blog/section-174-fixed-what-businesses-need-to-know-about-r-e-expensing-changes#:\~:text=Starting%20in%202025%2C%20U.S.%20businesses,tax%20years%20beginning%20in%202025.
I don’t understand RMBS, their earnings and projections both honestly looked great
Damn was RMBS in the Epstein files???
They don't even try to hide the corruption on RMBS. Pump it +11% during the day and then sell-off before the earnings miss they know is coming.
Jesus Christ RMBS down 28 percent in 3 hours. Fell straight down about 12% into the clothes and then Matt earnings and beat revenues.
RMBS taking a huge haircut AH from earnings. I regretted not holding on to my investment from them but glad I sold when I did.
Looks like RMBS is going to be a bust. For a tech company trading at about $120/share, revenue is pretty slim.
RMBS getting nuked out of existence lol
RMBS pod racing to the bottom
Damn, were RMBS earnings that bad?
Who wants to go all-in on $RMBS earnings I think they'll benefit from Nvidia Rubin orders
for tomorrow my guesses are 🍏 $PLTR $PYPL $NXPI $IT 🍎 $PEP $PFE $MRK $TER $RMBS
If my funds had cleared today I would have bought RMBS calls at $122… now it’s at $126 and most likely spiking higher AM
Opened today: - Calls: ATI • BALL • NXPI • RMBS - Puts: MRK • PEP • PLTR • PYPL (Also holding a position in RMBS) Re: PLTR, might make it a strangle by eod. Kinda on the fence here, but it's below the 200 day MA for the first time since it was $7 with earnings decelerating. *Disclaimer: don't do what I do, but if you do, I mostly work with strikes around delta 25 ish*...
# Thank You SNDK And also thanks to MU RMBS KRMN and the puts on CVLT SAP NOW. https://preview.redd.it/kl6p4nb5p1hg1.png?width=1398&format=png&auto=webp&s=4dcd57f0dca52a2be6f94900325da66785bd92ba
What do we think about RMBS?
RMBS to 300 by July 2026
I should have stuck with my RMBS holding when I bought last year. Up almost 30% YTD. I had to many pure plays for tech and tech like so I sold.
RAMBUS (RMBS) bc it has the name ram in it
Positions doing very well today: RMBS SNDK IRWD LLY WT Bought (back in) on the dip today: ASTS RKLB LUNR IBRX
BWXT, DRS, LMB, LNTH, OSIS, PL, PLAB, PSN, Q, RMBS, and gonna buy a few more XLU leaps. Trying to focus on mid/small caps for the IIJA, Naval Upgrades, Onshoring, and Space Industry for the next few years. Fingers crossed.
RMBS has RAM in its name — why no pumpy pump?
Any chips: I like RMBS/ALAB/CRDO, ride GLXY back up or gamble on MP with the chyna meeting
Holy shit all 3 positions I opened at the bell this morning are up since I bought them RMBS, MP, AMSC. This hasn’t happened since *checks notes* this has never happened
My AMKR and RMBS are burning my portfolio to the ground…. Let’s see what UNH and UPS do…
If you don’t buy this RMBS dip you deserve to be generationally poor
I didn't see this post but found it searching for others in SanDisk. Wondering what your projections are for earnings. I have 2- 50 calls expire Dec. My gut says sell one and buy out the other. Basically take the money and run into something else. My brain says buy them both and hold this forever. We know the run lately has been explosive. If earnings don't impress we will have a set back. However, it seems the market makers are in love with it. All of my other stocks have ran hard but not this hard. MU, CRDO, RMBS,PSTG, NVT, TER, VRT. My initial strategy was buy 2 calls if they run hard sell one call buy the other with the profits. Yes, it has worked out quite well. Just wondering what you think?
The stage is set . After MU earnings tomorrow , the rest STX , WDC , SNDK , RMBS will be down at 10 to 15 percent . Might as well buy my PUTS early .
Yup. I received a few messages from them recently saying that their service is back up. I haven't used IV in many years though. Reddit and a few other places replaced them for me. I was never into RMBS though.
Another big day for RMBS, next chip rocket
anyone looking at RMBS?
Nice to see a cautious stance based on price action of stocks rather than all the other reasons people claim the market is going to crash. You are right to be cautious here, as the market is showing typical signs of exhaustion. However, this phase can last longer than we expect. In the mean time, I'll take my ridiculous gains in stocks like SNDK and RMBS and many others that seem to defy gravity, and wait for that big red candle before getting defensive.
ALAB and CRDO plus AVGO. If Alab is too high, can get into Labx for exposure. Anything AI that is helping to build data centers is my focus. I've held all of these for a minute, and all are 100 over my buy price. I also love VST and it is currently in a buy zone. RMBS and SNDK with NTNX are low lying stocks beginning their blow up. Data centers are being built everywhere so for the next 5 years expect these companies companies to blow up. Of course I own all the above WSB stock plays but seriously real investors aren't just playing them. Anet and Net and NVDA. I can go on definitely keeping my Sofi and Rddt.
RMBS sliding but I loaded up on long calls
I almost forgot myself. It was a very cool time but I knew a few dudes who got wiped out in the early 2000s. I sold most of my stocks mid 1999. I made a lot of money on INTC, RMBS and COMS.
🫡, have you looked at GRRR, UAMY, RMBS?
RAMBUS($RMBS) to the 🚀🌖(not financial advice-just research it). You need memory (RAM) to run these AI stuff but being left out money wise…
I’m short STX, long RMBS 🤌
Casual 2x on my $RMBS calls fuck yeah
RMBS MSFT HOOD i guess technically also GOOGL
CLS, RMBS, CDNS, and AMKR all look pretty solid
*But my RMBS calls still gonna print tho right?*
$RMBS ahead of earnings
Go with ARM or RMBS.
$RMBS before earnings btw
Kinda gonna do some homework on RMBS. Earnings coming up and strong ties to the advanced Chip market and steady growth.
Meanwhile HIMX QRVO RMBS TXN are sleeping sound with no activity
My opinion is I choose SMH so I don't have to try and divine such subtleties.... If I was to pick a second chip stock after NVDA though, it wouldn't be any of these, with AVGO (and TSM) the obvious choice. Next I'd look at all the big chip equipment stocks, then ALAB, MU, RMBS, CRDO and maybe MRVL. Of your choices tho, I'd go with AMD, as it has a larger fan base that would respond very positively to any really good news.
And I’ve worked in CMBS for 7+ years so I’m very familiar with how these deals work too. Go ask your bosses who worked in RMBS before the GFC how those deals lined up compared to the ones today. I guarantee you the credit quality is substantially better. Fannie Mae RMBS default rates have topped 1% since 2009 and for good reason. The industry has much tougher underwriting and credit standards than a generation ago
Just read my original comment, its e x tremble simple and straightforward. I've been working in RMBS for 10+ years and worked on countless shitty deals rated by Moodys so please enlighten me if you think something I said was wrong.
$NXPI Reports Q1 EPS $2.64, consensus $2.60 Reports Q1 revenue $2.84B, consensus $2.83B. Sees Q2 EPS $2.46-$2.86, consensus $2.65 Sees Q2 revenue $2.8B-$3B, consensus $2.85. Sees Q2 gross margin 55.8%-56.8%. "NXP delivered quarterly revenue of $2.84 billion, in-line with the midpoint of guidance. NXP's first-quarter results and guidance for the second quarter underpin a cautious optimism that NXP continues to effectively navigate through a challenging set of market conditions. Sounds like the CEO is stepping down as well. $RMBS Reports Q1 EPS 56c, consensus 50c Reports Q1 revenue $166.7M, consensus $162.83M. "We had an excellent start to 2025, beating revenue and earnings expectations for Q1 with very strong cash from operations and record product revenue from memory interface chips," said Luc Seraphin, chief executive officer of Rambus. "Through our ongoing strategic execution and robust business model, we continued our market leadership in core DDR5 chip products and progress in new products, positioning us well to deliver long-term growth and continued value to stockholders." Sees Q2 adjusted product revenue $77M-$83M Sees Q2 adjusted licensing billings $64M-$70M.
The Chinese economy is relatively bad by some metrics and people are feeling the pressure but it's also quite overblown by western media. On the housing price collapse, China has long built "ghost cities" to meet demand before demand even exists. Chinese policy has always been housing for all and it's why housing ownership is 90% compared to a lot of western countries. China can easily bailout housing via the central bank and Treasury buying RMBS like we saw during GFC and covid but we haven't seen this yet. I'm guessing this will be the last ditch policy if things become worse. On the deflation crisis, it's more a tale of supply side deflation rather than demand side so it's not as bad as the numbers suggest. However China will need to increase domestic demand as the tariffs start to bite as all the goods produced need to go somewhere. Some US exports will be bought by other nations but most will be domestic.
If RMBS goes below $50 I’m buying in big. Also like MU at $85, CNM at $42, and CFLT under $28, if we see any of those prices again soon.
Depends on the parameters of “investing loss”. I purchased $10K of NVDA in 2002. Sold it the next day at a $1000 loss. HAD I held it to this day (like INTC and RMBS), it would have been worth up to $18M. I repurchased it in ‘06, so I don’t dwell too much. Oh, and FUCK INTC!
Sticking with GOOG forever. As for semis, KLAC had great results in the WFE area so AMAT should do fine next week too. RMBS is a good midcap in the semi space and had great results last week as well. Will nibble on AMZN if (big if) it sees $200 again.
RMBS still growing at a great pace. Solid ER.
Most mortgages are pooled into mortgage backed securities. When you package 30 years mortgages into MBS, you end up with something that has duration similar to the duration of a 7 to 10 year Treasury. Most residential mortgages are pooled into RMBS which are guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Max or Ginnie Mae. These MBS are therefore guaranteed by a quasi-government entities and carry a AAA credit rating similar to that of the US federal government. Therefore, MBS are comparable to 10Yr Treasuries in credit quality and duration and are priced relative to 10Y Treasuries. MBS having more complexity and prepayment/convexity risk are priced at a premium to the Treasury counterpart. Of course this is simplified and individual MBS aren't directly comparable to 10Y Treasury at every instance but rather may be most comparable to 8.5 years Treasuries or so depending on what exactly is being packaged, coupon and so on. But this creates a very strong correlation between MBS and upper intermediate term treasuries yields, and this is what drives the mortgage rates available to consumers. Going further, the MBS market also enables consumers to access 30 year borrowings at a lower rate more comparable to a 10 year borrowing rate (plus premium) without a significant credit spread, due to the quasi government sponsored credit enhancement. Fannie and Freddie were supposed to guarantee the defaults in RMBS profitably and not rely on the government, but they failed to do so in 2008 and were bailed out. Hence the whole politics and controversy around Fannie and Freddie, which were supposed to be independent and profitable corporations. This has resulted in Fannie/Freddie RMBS being considered to be basically US government securities.
No, RMBS which is residential side.
What a crock of shit. whoever wrote this article does not fundamentally understand what they are talking about. A lot of banks own RMBS on their balance sheets, mostly through agency guaranteed securities. Yes, these are at lower than market rates since many were bought 2020-2022. They could be an issue if a bank had liquidity issues like First Republic or SVB. But, most banks are well capitalized. The liquidity issues of FRB and SVB were unique to them. So, banks don’t need to sell the underwater securities and since they are agency secured (essentially no credit risk), they can just wait for them to pay off. Also, the article states that “Many of those HTM portfolio loans are approaching maturity…” as if it were bad. This would actually be GOOD for the banks, since debt paid off at lower rates can be invested into higher rated debt. It’s just a poorly written article made to sound sensational in order to get clicks.