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Rocket Lab Makes its Defense Prime Debut with $0.5 Billion Contract to Design and Build Satellite Constellation for Space Development Agency
What if you want a financial advisor... just not right now?
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$MNTS, $MNTSW, $ONDS, $RKLB $ASST 🤑📈🚀 - Momentus is participating in the SmallSat Symposium 2026, held in Silicon Valley from February 10-12, 2026. As a sponsor, the company will showcase its in-space infrastructure services, including satellite buses and water plasma-based propulsion systems. The event focuses on the industrial maturity of the smallsat sector with leaders from SDA, Amazon, and DARPA.
$2500 ? Really? # How can a widow with two teenagers survive on a gross State wage of just $7.25 an hour: before taxes, Social Security, fees, dues, SDA mandatory tithes and other deductions ($3.75 Net or $600/ month working fulltime), while covering the costs of: phone/ utility/ electricity bills $325, rent $1350, car payment $650, insurances $380, groceries $650 and the countless expenses $1999 that come with raising teenagers? Teenagers tend to require more resources than adults: clothing, shoes, food, and everything else they need to grow and thrive. It’s an overwhelming struggle to make ends meet. (... 2026, around 20 states still use the $7.25 federal minimum wage, either because they have no state law...) The federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour first took effect on July 24, 2009... now 2026! And the USPS has increased mail stamp prices **20 times** or 110% since June 2009! P.S. In 1963, the minimum wage was $1.25 - five 25-cent coins made of 90% silver, which are now valued at $76 TODAY! (Imagine a $76 minimum wage today! And you will get the 1950-1960 economy.) The 1960s average mortgage was between $40 or $60 a month for a 2- or 3-bedroom house, with the average new house around $10K. (**1963, $7.25 in silver dollars/quarters would be $580 today.** "Pay the minimal wage in silver coins then!") * Nearly 38% of all hourly workers earn at Or slightly above their State's minimum wage. (65 million workers, making under the MIT minimal Living Wage for a single adult is $26 to $33/hour, indicating $7.25/hour homeless living wage for many) 20 States pays $7.25! The rich Texas: [https://www.simplyhired.com/search?q=7.25+an+hour&l=dallas%2C+tx](https://www.simplyhired.com/search?q=7.25+an+hour&l=dallas%2C+tx)
Lanteris (used to be called Maxar) has a bigger revenue and better industry reputation for its satellites than RKLB space systems. RKLB space systems is 75% of RKLB entire revenues, or about $400 million a year. Lanteris/Maxar is $650 million a year business, and profitable or cash flow positive. They supply the satellite busses to L3Harris SDA and golden dome, that's their foot in the door with the defense department. Better overall business than Lunr's NASA contracts.
$90-100 EOY? (Copy/pasted since this sub blocks most websites): WHAT'S TO COME IN 2026 FOR AST SPACEMOBILE 2026 Catalysts There are plenty of catalysts the Sp🅰️ceMob are expecting during 2026 and beyond, here's what to keep an eye on Company - Initiation of research coverage by Citi, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, Stifel etc - Update on process of obtaining L-Band and S-Band spectrum licenses across the globe - Update on Google partnership and implementation plan - Announcement of Apple partnership - Announcement of Sirius XM partnership - Automation of manufacturing processes to enable further scaling Earnings Calls - $50-75M of revenue guided during previous earnings calls - Revenue guidance for 1H 2026 and 2026 - $175M stc prepayment made during Q4 2025, to be reported during Q4 earnings call in early February - Updated manufacturing table showing progress of satellite manufacturing for BlueBirds 14 onwards - Update on EXIM and other non-dilutive funding worth over $500m - Confirmation the company can now produce 6 satellites per month - Update on when the AST5000 ASIC chip will be integrated into the BlueBird satellites - Progress update on the 9 government contracts with Department of Defense (DoD), Space Development Agency (SDA), Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) - Acquisition of new manufacturing space in Midland, TX focused exclusively on Micron production Launch - BB7 launch during Q1 on either SpaceX F9 or Blue Origin New Glenn - BB8 - BB10 transported to Cape Canaveral for launch on SpaceX F9 - BB11 - BB13 transported to Cape Canaveral for launch on SpaceX F9 - Launches of Block 2 satellites in batches of 3-8 satellites every 1-2 months MNOs - Unlocking of $45m prepayment from Verizon upon FCC approval (already signed DA) - Unlocking minimum $20m prepayment from Vodafone - Execution of DAs with 50+ MNOs from around the world including Bell Canada, Etisalat, Orange and Telefonica. These could include prepayments or strategic investments. - FirstNet Investment and Definitive Commercial Agreement - Initial launch of service in conjunction with key strategic MNO partners Government/FCC/Regulatory - Golden Dome awards - Additional government contracts - FCC approval for full US commercial service - Proposal for PNT service accepted by FCC as alternative to GPS - EU allocation of 2GHz MSS spectrum to SatCo (likely 2027)
With the SDA contract backlog is now close to 2 billion, 816 mln from that alone + other contractors also get parts from Rocket Lab, so more like 1 billion from that single contract. If they can get the MTO or something from the golden dome, they will be at 3 billion or more.
LUNR isn’t manufacturing the satellites; their new acquisition of Lanteris is. AKA Maxar. Who has a 60+ year launch record and portfolio that includes designing and building all of Iridium, DirecTV, SiriusXM, WorldView, NOAA GOES, among others. Not to mention their experience in literally groundbreaking missions like Psyche, OSIRIS-REx, or even Messenger, Voyager 1 and 2, Space Lab, and even Houston Space Center. Out of 54 Tranche 0-2 satellites satellites under contract, Lanteris is building (or has built, and launched) 36. As of writing this, they are the only company that has launched any satellites for the SDA at all. https://www.satnow.com/news/details/4447-lanteris-space-systems-expands-its-integrated-small-satellite-platform-portfolio
*Sigh* LUNR is building the base satellites and distributing them to the other companies. This contract is for the SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 1 and 2. Literally *all* of these satellites are being built on the Lanteris (now under LUNR) 300 satellite platform. This is about 2-month old news y’all. https://spacenews.com/intuitive-machines-sees-lanteris-deal-creating-new-opportunities-in-defense-and-exploration/
They just sign a new SDA contract which isn't factored into their current revenue and have Neutron, Possibly MTO and Golden Dome contracts, and eventually a constellation to pump up RKLBs sales in that ratio too
RKLB has approximately $560 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand, annual revenue of about $500 million, and free cash flow of –$205 million. The company also has $1 billion in backlog, with a goal of converting roughly 54% into revenue over the next 12–18 months. Additionally they just won the SDA Tranche 3 contract worth upwards of $1 billion, and were awaiting the announcement for the Mars Telecommunications Orbiter that’s worth an additional $700 million. So they should be okay without needing to dilute in the near term unless they plan to make additional acquisitions.
Yes, RKLB has already won a significant SDA contract just last week and stands to benefit from the new focus on space, however, my contention that it's already ran way too high for a company that will always struggle to generate meaningful profits before 2030; it's already priced at a higher P/S than SpaceX and they don't have an equivalent to Starlink, SpaceX main cash cow.
Mini SpaceX, “monopoly” in small launches, medium launch vehicle coming out to compete with Spacex’s Falcon 9, vertically integrated space manufacturing that makes critical subsystems for satellites which means they win even when they lose (contracts), just won huge SDA contract, amazing forward thinking leadership. That’s all I got of the top of my head.
First of all, satellites also aren‘t that easy to build especially when they are supposed to live long. For the really expensive and important ones you have to be a proven prime manufacturer, something Rocket Lab is (with the Escapade Mission for NASA to Mars, or the Missile tracking and Transport layers for the SDA) They are the biggest space grade (that is an important difference) solar panel producer on earth, they have built thousands of reaction wheels for customers like Amazon for Kuiper, they build space grade microchips for command and control. All these parts have to be extra reliable, hardened for space and radiation. Yes others build this stuff as well, but not all in one house and not at the level RKLB does. They have everything a customer would need, payload, command and control, energy, soon laser communication as well It‘s a vertically one stop shop, with much better margins than the rest of that Industry AND they can launch those same satellites as well. Basically any newly built sat has some parts of rocket lab built into it (at least ~70% if memory serves me correct, I have to double check that tho), so even if they don‘t get the full contract, they will earn something through individual parts This vision is already working btw, the large SDA contract was split 4 ways between Rocket Lab, L3 Harris, Lockheed and Northrop. But the company that actually builds the tracking sensors is owned by RKLB, so they already announced that the other winners will buy those from them.
Good work. Only correction is they have 200 million shares so they're already over $3 billion in market cap. They got a $5 billion satscomm NSNS contract last year and they're front runners for $4.6 billion LTV contract mentioned by OP. Their lander business is minuscule now compared to these contracts. They also acquired Maxar Space that makes satellite busses last month and just got an award through L3Harris SDA win just yesterday. In addition to all that, just found out they're in the running for building nuclear reactors on the moon, their sub is really one of the most intelligent subs on all of Reddit. They will probably make $1 billion in revenue (combined LUNR and Maxar) this coming year. Forget $20, forget $40. LUNR will be a $20B (~$100) company sometimes in 2026. P.S. People who still believe LUNR is a lander company should disqualify themselves from commenting in this thread.
I posted this in reply to the OP, but wanted you to see it as well: Ah yes, another post about Rocket Lab focusing on just launch. Did you know that 70% of $RKLB's revenue is from their space systems? Satellites, reaction wheels, solar panels, software, etc. Since they are vertically integrated and do much of it in house, the gross margins are nearing 40%. "How much stuff needs to be sent into space?" The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 Trillion by 2035. (Launch $60-100 Billion, Infrastructure $400 B, Applications/Data $1.3 Trillion). (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-the-1-point-8-trillion-dollar-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth) If Rocket Lab can get just 5% of that business, that is a revenue of $36 billion. Can they reach 5%? Well: "**Tracking Layer Tranche 3 (TRKT3)** deal announced by the Space Development Agency (SDA) on December 19, 2025, Rocket Lab secured approximately **23.3%** of the total contract value as a prime contractor." They won 23% of that deal alongside names like Northrop Grumman, L3Harris and Lockheed Martin. They haven't even announced who's going to launch it. If only there was someone vertically integrated who could perform that as well. Oh, and they stand to make another $200 Million on this deal alone supplying parts to those other companies. Starting to get it yet?
Ah yes, another post about Rocket Lab focusing on just launch. Did you know that 70% of $RKLB's revenue is from their space systems? Satellites, reaction wheels, solar panels, software, etc. Since they are vertically integrated and do much of it in house, the gross margins are nearing 40%. "How much stuff needs to be sent into space?" The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 Trillion by 2035. (Launch $60-100 Billion, Infrastructure $400 B, Applications/Data $1.3 Trillion). (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-the-1-point-8-trillion-dollar-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth) If Rocket Lab can get just 5% of that business, that is a revenue of $36 billion. Can they reach 5%? Well: "**Tracking Layer Tranche 3 (TRKT3)** deal announced by the Space Development Agency (SDA) on December 19, 2025, Rocket Lab secured approximately **23.3%** of the total contract value as a prime contractor." They won 23% of that deal alongside names like Northrop Grumman, L3Harris and Lockheed Martin. They haven't even announced who's going to launch it. If only there was someone vertically integrated who could perform that as well. Oh, and they stand to make another $200 Million on this deal alone supplying parts to those other companies. Starting to get it yet?
*2B backlog with the SDA Deal now secured lol
Question: what is the connection between lanteris and l3harris and how does the recent contract effect lanteris revenues Gemini: Based on the most recent industry developments from late 2025, here is the breakdown of the connection between Lanteris and L3Harris and the financial impact of their recent collaboration. # The Connection: Prime Contractor vs. Key Supplier The relationship between **Lanteris Space Systems** (formerly Maxar Space Systems) and **L3Harris Technologies** is that of a **strategic subcontractor**. * **L3Harris** acts as the **Prime Contractor** for major government defense contracts, specifically for the Space Development Agency (SDA). * **Lanteris** serves as the **Bus Supplier**. They manufacture the physical satellite platforms (the "bus" that holds the sensors and engines) for L3Harris. +1 * **Specific Hardware:** Lanteris provides the **Lanteris 300** series bus (formerly the Maxar 300) for L3Harris’s missile tracking satellites. **Note on Lanteris' Identity:** Lanteris is a very new brand name. On **October 1, 2025**, the private equity firm Advent International split **Maxar Technologies** into two separate companies. The satellite manufacturing division was rebranded as **Lanteris Space Systems**, while the intelligence division became **Vantor**. \+1 # The Recent Contract & Revenue Impact The "recent contract" refers to L3Harris winning a major award (approx. **$843 million**) from the Space Development Agency (SDA) for the **Tranche 3 (or expanded Tranche 2) Tracking Layer** satellite constellation. Here is how this specifically affects Lanteris's revenues: **1. Direct Revenue Boost (\~$200M - $250M)** While L3Harris won the headline figure of \~$843M, industry analysts estimate that **Lanteris’s share of this contract is between $200 million and $250 million**. * Lanteris earns this by manufacturing the 18+ satellite buses required for the mission. * This single sub-contract represents roughly **30% to 40% of Lanteris’s total annual revenue**, which is estimated at approximately $630 million. **2. Backlog Security** This contract solidifies Lanteris's production line for the next several years. Because they already built the buses for Tranche 1 and Tranche 2, this "repeat order" allows them to manufacture at scale with higher profit margins (since the engineering design costs were paid for in previous contracts). **3. Valuation Impact for Acquisition** This revenue stream is critical because **Intuitive Machines (LUNR)** announced in November 2025 that it is acquiring Lanteris for **$800 million**. The guaranteed revenue from the L3Harris contract was a key factor in justifying this purchase price, effectively serving as a financial anchor for Lanteris as it transitions from private equity ownership to being a subsidiary of Intuitive Machines.
1 of 4 SDA tranche 3 winners. 800 million base with options. Extra 200 million will be supplied by the other 3 primes buying rocket labs new tech. Total value 1 billion+
# What Actually Happened with SDA Tranche‑3 **On Dec. 19, 2025, the SDA announced Tranche‑3 Tracking Layer awards** for its Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA), and those awards were **split among four companies**, not given to a single winner: * **Lockheed Martin** — \~$1.1 billion for 18 satellites * **Rocket Lab USA** — up to **$805 million for 18 satellites** * **Northrop Grumman** — \~$764 million for 18 satellites * **L3Harris Technologies** — \~$843 million for 18 satellites Each company is responsible for delivering and operating a set of 18 “space vehicles” (satellites) as part of the Tranche‑3 Tracking constellation, which collectively totals **72 satellites**.
What Actually Happened with SDA Tranche‑3 **On Dec. 19, 2025, the SDA announced Tranche‑3 Tracking Layer awards** for its Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA), and those awards were **split among four companies**, not given to a single winner: * **Lockheed Martin** — \~$1.1 billion for 18 satellites * **Rocket Lab USA** — up to **$805 million for 18 satellites** * **Northrop Grumman** — \~$764 million for 18 satellites * **L3Harris Technologies** — \~$843 million for 18 satellites Each company is responsible for delivering and operating a set of 18 “space vehicles” (satellites) as part of the Tranche‑3 Tracking constellation, which collectively totals **72 satellites**.
RKLB just landed its largest contract ever from SDA for Tranche 3!!! 🚀🚀🚀
“to the pad” They did just win $800mil SDA contract
Rocket Lab CEO had his sale of shares (just a trim) scheduled for after the SDA contract announcement and got absolutely screwed by the timing of the government shutdown
They really are not. They are very likely to get the LTVS contract, have the NSNS contract for a steady revenue stream when the constellation is up and the have the Lanteris acquisition which should close in Q1 2026. Lanteris subcontracts buses for L3Harris that just got an award from SDA. It's not really just a lunar lander company anymore.
you think SDA contract comes in?
It already tanked to 38$ from 74$ on profit taking and neutron delay. We still have SDA traunch 3, MTO, and Neutron in front of us the next 12 months.
MTO, Golden Dome/Shield, SDA Tranche 3, Mynaric closing -- plenty of non Neutron initiatives coming down the pipeline within weeks
When Neutron flies this year, RKLB will absolutely rip. Mark my words. They also stand a very good chance at being a prime for the SDA Tranche 3 contracts being awarded soon.
$RKLB Revenue $155M in Q3 (+48% YoY) Record GAAP gross margin 37% in Q3 Secured 17 Electron dedicated launch contracts in Q3 Completed acquisition of Geost for up to $325 million $1+ billion in liquidity after ATM program Adjusted EBITDA loss $23–29M expected in Q4 2025 GAAP operating expenses $122–128Mguided for Q4 2025 Basic weighted average common shares ~571M (includes ~46M preferred) Stock‑based compensation expected $15–17M in Q4 2025 Management closed the acquisition of Geost for up to $325 million, adding electro-optical/infrared payload capability, and completed Mynaric financial restructuring as part of an intended acquisition path. These moves extend the company from launch and spacecraft into payloads, aligning with described defense programs such as Golden Dome and SDA constellations and potentially increasing addressable contract scope.
yall see that $CLS and $NEE move in the after hours? whoaaa. $CLS had a $40 move in one 1 min candle. $FRGT, SDA LUNG ATCH AGH RELI DDD. I be keeping an eye on them come 4 a.m. especially $CLS and $LUNG. weve all seen those wild A$$ moves right at the 4 a.m pre open. hope yall had a good green day. good luck tomorrow everyone
international SDA/defense spending is going make rklb pop off so hard
Catalysts on the horizon that will boom this bad boy: - Golden dome awards - SDA tracking layer award practically guaranteed because of some acquisitions they’ve made recently - Not just Neutron launch but practically any announcements regarding Neutron’s progress because these guys don’t BS, they mean what they say and the market prices their word - Mars Sample Return mission also practically guaranteed to win that contract
We must have won the big SDA contract
They must have won the big SDA contract. somebody knows something
“Why is RKLB ripping?” -Institutions front running a likely award for SDA Tranche 3 tracking layer that stands to add $750m to their $1bn backlog. -Imminent launch of Neutron this year that is shaping up nicely. -Pending ($175bn Golden Dome) contracts where RocketLab is strategically positioned to be awarded large contracts as a prime bolstered greatly by recent acquisitions of Geost and Mynaric that continue to strengthen their vertical integration. -21 launch contract inked with Synspective for Electon. -3 launch contract added for IQPS. -Continued ramping and cadence increase for HASTE launches, hypersonic testing for US Defense. -Robust Space Systems business that continues to scale rapidly.
If Golden Dome is where the action is, I don't get it because there is very little chance it will work. Maybe just the SDA is the action.
# Government Contracts and Geopolitical Influence The defense and intelligence community represents a critical and lucrative customer base for Rocket Lab. The company's ability to secure contracts with agencies like the DoD and NRO is a significant growth driver and a testament to its reliability. * **DoD Reliance on SpaceX:** The original post highlights the DoD's realization of over-reliance on SpaceX. This sentiment could directly benefit RKLB as it seeks to position Neutron as a viable, independent alternative for national security space missions. * **Key Potential Contracts:** The post mentions several significant potential contracts: * **SDA (different layers) worth $500M+:** Space Development Agency contracts are crucial for building proliferated low-Earth orbit satellite constellations for defense applications. * **Mars Telecom Orbiter ($700M) and Mars Sample Return ($4B):** These NASA missions represent large-scale, high-profile opportunities that Neutron would be well-suited to handle. * **Golden Dome contracts ($175B+):** This likely refers to broad national security space programs where RKLB could secure component or launch contracts over an extended period. * **NSSL Program:** Rocket Lab is competing for NSSL Phase 2 contracts, which are crucial for government launch market access. Winning these contracts would validate Neutron's capabilities and provide a stable revenue stream. # Financial Performance and Catalysts Rocket Lab's financial trajectory is intrinsically linked to the successful execution of its development roadmap and the acquisition of new contracts. * **Current Financials:** For the full year 2023, Rocket Lab reported total revenue of $292.8 million, an increase of 15% year-over-year. Gross profit was $45.7 million, with a gross margin of 15.6%. The company reported a net loss of $66.6 million. EBITDA was negative, as expected for a growth-stage company investing heavily in new capabilities. * **Path to Profitability:** The company's path to profitability relies on scaling revenue through Neutron launches and increased Space Systems sales, while managing operational costs. Achieving positive EBITDA is a key short-to-medium term financial milestone, as mentioned in the original post. * **Catalysts:** * **Neutron First Launch:** This is the most significant near-term catalyst, proving the rocket's viability and opening up new market segments. * **Neutron Commercial Contracts:** Securing commercial contracts for Neutron flights, beyond initial government demonstrations, will demonstrate market demand and revenue generation potential. * **SDA/NSSL Contract Awards:** Winning significant government launch contracts would de-risk the future and provide substantial revenue. * **Space Systems Growth:** Continued expansion and integration of acquired space systems businesses, demonstrating cross-selling opportunities. * **Electron Reusability Improvements:** Further advancements in Electron recovery and refurbishment could enhance profitability for existing operations.
SDA contract coming
especially the SDA contract award coming 1 Oct
“They promised similar before” lol. They have never provided guidance before. The H2 guidance of $50-$75m is the first time they have ever guided revenue. Which actually is very achievable between a $20m DIU contract, $43m SDA contract, and >$30m in gateway bookings this year already. You don’t evaluate the company at this time or past based on the revenue forecast or ER as it was (wait for it) pre-revenue. So it’s worthless to look at the metrics you shared.
That’s a strong thesis. AST SpaceMobile’s partnerships with Vi India and the U.S. SDA give it both massive market potential and government credibility two critical levers in the space sector. If execution matches the hype, ASTS could be a major player as satellite connectivity scales globally.
Space systems is Rocket Lab’s current major growth engine, and a successful Neutron once it develops reusability will allow that growth to become even more rapid. Plus allow them access to a much larger TAM in launch and eventually in Space Services (the keys to space as Beck says). But space systems was 70% of their revenue in 2024 and possibly even higher percentage in 2025. Their big prime contractor win for SDA Tranche 2 Transport Layer worth $515M was their biggest win to date, and with acquisitions of Mynaric and national security payload provider Geost, they are extremely well positioned to win one of the tranche 3 tracking layer awards from SDA in October when they are expected to be announced. Likely 3 awards of around $750M each for 18 satellites each. They are also bidding as prime contractor on various other government and commercial constellations. And once Neutron has flown successfully once they can bid for multi-launch contracts from NSSL Lane 1, a $5.6B launch program they have been on-ramped into.
They shut down bids for a big portion of "golden dome" aka SDA PWSA satellites cause the 6 billion was going to be handed to SpaceX. spaceX is most certainly a communication satellite constellation company.
$RDW Reports Q1 EPS (9c) vs. (17c) last year Reports Q1 revenue $61.4M vs. $87.8 last year. "Bookings increased significantly compared to Q4, with key wins coming from the European market; however, there were notable delays in awards in the U.S. government market due to transition of key decision makers in NASA, SDA and other agencies, as well as budget uncertainty associated with new administration priorities. However, we are confident that Redwire's geographic, product and customer diversity across Civil, Commercial, and National Security markets continues to provide resiliency in our business model," stated Peter Cannito, Chairman and CEO of Redwire. "At a time when European defense and space budgets are increasing, Redwire is expanding its presence in Europe with a new office in Poland to support ongoing international wins including a contract from Thales Alenia Space for the IBDM I-Hab as well as ESA study contracts for the Mars LightShip initiative and ARRAKIHS dark matter mission." Sees FY25 revenue $535M-$605M, consensus $431.11M FY25 revenue assumes the previously announced transaction with Edge Autonomy had been consummated on January 1. Sees Y25 Adjusted EBITDA4 $70M-$105M with positive Free Cash Flow.
Thank you Gemini: “ Okay, here’s a summary of the provided text about ASTS: * Core Business: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is building a satellite network for direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity, allowing standard smartphones to connect to satellites for broadband, especially in areas lacking terrestrial infrastructure. * Wholesale Model: ASTS partners with mobile network operators (MNOs) like AT&T and Vodafone, giving them instant access to billions of customers. This avoids the marketing and sales challenges faced by previous satellite companies like Iridium. * Military Applications: ASTS technology has uses beyond cellular communication, including GPS alternatives, missile tracking, and drone operations. They have contracts with the US Space Development Agency (SDA). * European Expansion: Through a joint venture with Vodafone (SatCo), ASTS aims to provide services across Europe, positioning themselves as an alternative to Starlink. * Ligado Spectrum Acquisition: ASTS is acquiring Ligado spectrum, which was previously unusable, to create its own data service and reduce reliance on other spectrum providers. * AI Connectivity: The increasing demand for constant connectivity driven by AI enhances the value of ASTS’s global data delivery capabilities. * Strategic Importance of Space: The company emphasizes the strategic value of space-based internet access, benefiting from competition among launch providers like SpaceX and Blue Origin. * Technological Innovation: * Large Satellite Arrays: ASTS uses large, deployable phased-array antennas for strong signals and efficient spectrum use. * Patents: The company has numerous patents covering key technologies, including antenna design, signal processing, and beamforming. * Vertical Integration: ASTS controls most of its manufacturing, reducing costs and improving quality control. * Value Proposition: * Disaster Resilience: Satellite networks remain operational when terrestrial infrastructure fails. * Cost Efficiency: Satellites offer a cost-effective alternative to subsea cables for global connectivity. * Enabling Emerging Technologies: Supports AI, autonomous systems, and IoT devices requiring constant connectivity. Would you like to know more about any specific aspect of ASTS or have any further questions? “
"speculation" Golden dome needs a lot of infrastructure, ASTS has power and size with large pinpoint accurate phased arrays that would be a good fit for the project. They have GPS backups and a ton of tech and they got a $43 m contract for testing of their 6 satellites by the SDA (government) and were named a prime contractor. It's not confirmed in any way, but they are already working with the government in development and testing on what we do not know so it is not impossible either.
Revenue is actually more than 0 with the SDA. 🫡
Lol. Not spacex. Have you seen that SDA is thinking about canceling their tranches and replace with space x? https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/air-force-weighs-plan-to-cancel-sdas-next-set-of-data-relay-sats-in-favor-of-spacex-sources/
Well then, by that analogy (search=launch), you’ll understand that Rocket Lab may follow a similar path where space services becomes their goldmine. They manufacture critical components for the industry, provide essential software, and build satellites for other customers among other things. They have several spacecraft that they can build at scale and all of this on top of their launch capability wins them important DoD contracts that will pay high ROI later (e.g., HASTE, SDA, VICTUS HAZE). Finally, they have designed a new mega constellation satellite (Flatellite lol) specifically for deployment by Neutron - it will be used for their own constellation to provide high-margin services that they haven’t fully detailed yet and they will also sell them to and launch them for clients. So, they are way more than just launch and your analogy is a bit unfair. One last thing… Starship will not displace all other launch vehicles, just as F9 does not displace Electron. Launch demand is huge and projected to get bigger. Customers have launch requirements that are not ideal for SpaceX ride share. There’s more room for competition than you currently appreciate.
That link is horrendously wrong 😳 the company was, until recently, a pre-revenue company. It just secured a $43M contract awarded by the SDA and there will be more to come. It has $1B in cash and 6 satellites in the sky with more to come. It has potential to make billions in revenue with a large profit margin within a few years since they already have significant contracts with MNOs globally to provide them with supplementary coverage from space, eliminating dead zones globally and providing 5G broadband data to unmodified phones
Your DD overlooks the critical role of QNX Cabin and QNX Sound in BlackBerry’s automotive strategy and their ability to generate monthly recurring revenue (MRR) through subscription-based features. These components are pivotal for BlackBerry’s positioning as a leader in the software-defined vehicle (SDV) market: QNX Cabin: This cloud-enabled platform accelerates the development of digital cockpits, allowing automakers to virtualize and streamline workflows. It supports faster time-to-market for sophisticated infotainment systems, which are increasingly central to modern vehicles. QNX Sound: This Software-Defined Audio (SDA) platform delivers premium acoustic experiences while enabling cost savings and new revenue streams. Automakers can offer post-sale subscriptions for personalized audio features, creating a steady MRR model. These innovations enhance QNX’s value per vehicle by integrating real-time infotainment, safety-critical systems, and subscription-based services, driving sustainable growth in BlackBerry’s IoT business. The market has also yet to fully price in this SaaS-like potential.
There’s a bunch of catalysts this year. Some more likely than others. Obviously a successful Neutron launch is the biggest but others are HASTE contract expansion, SDA tranche 2 and 3 awards, Mars Sample Return contract (< 5% chance they get this imo), and additional Neutron contract annoucements. It’s possible they announce their constellation this year but I think that’s more likely in 2026/2027
SDA is increasing their fundings to 25.5 BN in the next 5 years for their LEO satelites https://www.airandspaceforces.com/sda-budget-spending-next-five-years/
SDA increased their budget to 25.5 bn in the next 5 years https://www.airandspaceforces.com/sda-budget-spending-next-five-years/
If your thesis is based on intelligence for defense, why would PL be a more compelling choice than BlackSky Technologies ($BKSY), which has built their entire business to meet the needs of the Intelligence Community? For example, they just landed a 5-year, up to $290M contract from the NGA. Their board of directors has a former CIA officer, former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, and many other strong ties to the national security community through their executive team. Oh, and Palantir has a stake so they are partnering with them to build AI analytic capabilities to automate interpretation of EO, SSA, and SDA imagery to meet customer needs. This has broad applicability to defense and commercial use cases. TLDR: you are investing in the wrong company. Look at BKSY.
What idiots are saying it overvalued? Neutron is de-risked everyday. Relativity Space is about the give up the ghost and they have a 2.8 billion dollar backlog they will need to go somewhere. SDA tranche 3 awards are going out soon. Haste just completed its second mission completely opening up a new revenue stream. And I haven’t even spoken about NSSL Phase 3.
Imagine if they’re selected as the prime contractor for the SDA Tranche 3 layer… 200 SVs… they are currently building 27 for a different SDA contract worth $498MM…
"Stock went up so it must go down" logic. It went up when it secured enough cash to erase doubts of further dilution + commercial agreement with AT&T and Verizon investments. Meaning securing and solidifying their market and revenue. Launched its first 5 commercial satelites that will bring cash (not much, but some). It's been stated in previous EC that goverment use is first use, then AT&T and Vz, so hopefully get some guidance on that. Next generation of satelites is planned to launch on 1Q2025, so I expect multi launch agreement, since they're already building 17 satelites and next year is when they start deployment of full constelation. Idk if it will pump like before tbh, we haven't had any bad news since last EC, if anything we've had only good news: successful launching and deployment of its satelites, being a prime contractor for the SDA, being part of the SBIR program and awarded 2 contracts for that, only phase II so they're small, phase III is the larger one. Stock went up for BB1 FOMO then once that happened it went down, same thing happened when ASTS launched BW3 back in September 2022. IMO it's fundamental price shouldn't be lower than what we saw pre 2Q EC, after that it was FOMO for BB1 launching. So now any potential good news could trigger an upside.
Congress controls the funding and the executive would theoretically control who gets it. Granted SDA/NASA contracts are quite a few levels down. All depends on who he appointments and if they really do change who is a Schedule F employee and to what degree. There are a few risks but I'm not too worried.
The first 17 satellites were built by $RKLB and MDA and are operated by $RKLB. Globalstar can put another check in the mail to RKLB tomorrow. It also further validates RocketLabs constellation build and operation experience. First, the Globalstar constellation, then the SDA (18 satellites, $489M), and they're planning on building their own constellation...
This guy lacks tact but he’s not wrong. Even with the SDA contract, the ASTS underlying financials don’t support a company valuation of $7B. Good solution might be to take out the $ you originally invested (or a multiple) and diversify into a couple other stocks in different sectors or with a different profile (e.g. income instead of growth, different sector, etc.). Great work though; you definitely belong here with the rest of us degens! Make sure you tell someone with gains to F off once in a while
Couple of other things to note from someone whos been invested since day 1. 1) SDA & Link16. Redwire does more than provide RF and Antennas for RKLB's SDA satellites, they are also base lined into York and other providers platforms. 2) Rocket Structures. Something that alot of people dont know is that Redwire is also helping X-bow systems with the SRM production by supplying the company with structures for their bolt family of rockets. 3) Moon & Mars. Redwire has lunar and martian optionality, they have multiple different lunar contract like MASON with NASA/tipping point which is for building landing pads and roads using regolith & VSAT which is a partnership with the company astrobotic where Redwire is providing ROSA arrays of various sizes to provide power for the lunar surface. There is in fact even more I could talk about too but ill cut it here, thanks for the post and the visability into a great company.
Grats to ASTS on winning the opportunity to compete for a prototype and grats to the SDA for existing at all.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241023158745/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Secures-Initial-Contract-with-Space-Development-Agency-SDA-as-a-Prime-Contractor-to-the-United-States-Government
Is that the SDA contract l?
RKLB can just pivot into any revenue generating constellation whenever they want in the future. They are just about fully integrated when it comes to production of satellites. Once they acquire a payload provider, huge catalyst. SDA 500 mil contract revenue will start hitting the books the same time as Neutron cost will be decreasing. Not to even mention new contracts on the horizon. There will be a massive inflection point of profitability; this company is going to be a monster by 2030. Can easily see a 50 bil valuation by 2030, still a 10x for those who think they missed the boat.
Apologies, (being as nice as possible) but everything you just said was factually incorrect & hyperbole. 1. ELTP is a verified company that is listed & approved by the FDA: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/SDA/sdDetailNavigation.cfm?sd=srolist&id=20D14505EC8A7223E0631498C30A0EA1&rownum=23 2. ELTP complies with the SEC every single quarter: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053369/000121390020016181/f10k2020_elitepharma.htm All filings can be searched here: https://elite.irpass.com/sec_filings 3. The listed pipeline I pasted is pulled from ELTP's website: https://elitepharma.com/products/ 4. All ***Approved*** drugs can be verified on the FDA website: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/index.cfm *But cool story about a tool company...*
Did you open the link I posted? Do you know they manufacture most satellite sub systems in house and even sell them to competitors too (Firefly)? Have you heard of the Globalstar constellation or SDA constellation? The CFO and CEO both mentioned in their quarterly earnings that they have a constellation specific purpose in mind and will announce it once Neutron is flying. For now they have the MDA and SDA constellations where they operate and produce the satellites. How about Varda Space too? Come back here in a year as clueless as you are now
You sold RocketLab at 3.50? What scared you? The knighting of their CEO, the 500 million dollar award from the SDA? Electron becomes the fastest rocket to launch 50 times?
Not necessarily. Some of those plans options for holding suck. And with a Roth you have much better options for investments that will make a huge difference in the end. Less fees and better earnings adds up over the course of decades. I have self directed accounts (SDA) and standard 457, etc and even though more was invested in the 457 the ROI has been much higher in the SDAs. ROTH investments first over 457/401k in my experience.
Oh yeah they do it for so many. Go on there website they highlight the coolest ones on there. SDA military sats for 500mill is one of the cooler ones https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-makes-its-defense-prime-debut-with-0-5-billion-contract-to-design-and-build-satellite-constellation-for-space-development-agency/ Also Varda Space is another cool one they build sats for. They build the vehicle that holds there factories to produce drugs in space. There a partner for them https://www.rocketlabusa.com/missions/upcoming-missions/varda-space-industries/
people have been severely underestimating the value of RKLB and I think the mkt is just catching up. the SDA contracts they could win this year are potentially in the billions alone
people just starting to realize theyre gonna get billions in SDA contracts
SDA contracts for rocket lab in Q4 will be mega, Jan25 call volume has been nuts last 2 days
people vastly underestimating the future SDA rocket lab contracts. will be massive in Q4, prob explains all the insane jan 2025 call volume thats been happening recently. TO THE MOON
Not just parts they are also now a prime contractor for government sat contracts (Think Lockheed Martin) and won a $515M contract to build 18 sats for the SDA (space development agency, US gov). They build most of the satellites in house (solar, bus (structure of the satellite), reaction wheels(orientation controller while in orbit), radios, separation systems...etc). They don't currently build a specific payload(think a camera if it was a space observation sat) but they recently raised 300+ mil in January specifically for another sub purchase. They have really grown to be able to take full advantage of their vertical integration. Backlog is $1.1 billion and growing along with their revenue. Watch out over the next month for another $500-600 million dollar contract from the SDA (not certain they will get it but if they do I think the stock really moves again)
I agree; combined with small caps strengthening over all as interest rates lower. From $240mil 2023 rev to $410+mil by year end 2024. Possible second meaty contract announcement with SDA soon. Lot of things stacking up.
I've been researching this company for the past 2 weeks to see what the hell is going on. So here's some extra DD from actually reading their fillings...AMA. SMR is owned by Fluor ($FLR) The company has no debt, instead financed by selling equity - ATM agreement to sell $150M worth of shares at any time at-the-market prices. (~8.5M sold in Q1 '24) With 9.7M more available to sell at a max price of $9.92 per share. - The company has a bunch of public/private warrants (18.4M) with an exercise price of $11.50. The company has an SDA for a particular SMR design, but this isn't expected to pass technical review until July 2025 at the earliest. The company has no binding contracts, and only describes being in the "taking stage" with potential customers. As far as I can see the company is kept alive by massive share dilution. The run up recently I think has been a bit of a short squeeze after a short-seller released a report on Nuscale in Oct 2023 and the company having up to 30% short interest. (https://iceberg-research.com/2023/10/19/nuscale-power-smr-a-fake-customer-and-a-major-contract-in-peril-cast-doubt-on-nuscales-viability/) Whether or not the company can commercialise SMRs is entirely up in the air. I have long positions in Cameco, Yellow Cake plc. and Uranium Energy Corp (CCJ, LSE:YCA, and UEC).
This is bullshit. Starship will be a lot cheaper yes when it's is full at 150 tons but that will be rare and for moon missions only or their own starlink delivery. You can't choose the when or where with Starship either. Do you think SDA, NASA, DARPA etc are going to allow spaceX have a monopoly? When you add the full package of design-build-launch-operate business model RL are so far ahead of everyone already including spaceX. There is way more to the space industry than launch.
DoD/Spaceforce/SDA is moving from peacetime operations to "full wartime capabilities" of the new comms/sensing satellite constellation by 2027. Take this timing how you will.
its gps, gps and... gps mostly. The SDA is developing big LEO constellations for this purpose and they will need to be constantly redesigned and replaced due to the short lifespan of LEO objects. Also rklb was just awarded a mission to launch a spacecraft and operate it in orbit to rendezvous with another vehicle In what is assumed to be a dress rehearsal of a weapons or communications deorbit emergency situation as they will be given 24 hours to complete the mission from initiation.
Did something similar. Moved about 12k from my 401k s&p 500 allocation into an SDA in the hopes of investing in strong market leaders and I'm down close 1k. The market gives and the market takes, easily the scariest rollercoaster I've ever been on lol.
RKLB - entire plan is to provide end to end space services including building the satellite, launching, and in-orbit operations. All their acquisitions have been with this goal in mind and they've executed well. They are now a prime contractor with the US govt following their ~$500 million contract with SDA. Currently working toward inaugural launch of their medium lift rocket, Neutron. The timeline on this is a risk factor as rocket development rarely sticks to planned schedules but they are still aiming for a launch by EOY (I personally don't think this will happen). Price has been stuck between 4 and 5 for awhile now and they plan to make an additional acquisition after a recent funding and sign Neutron contracts at some point this year which will lead to their backlog jumping significantly. Space systems is their largest source of revenue and everything from the CFO and CEO indicates they expect similar sized or larger contracts than the half billion from SDA.
If you are averaging 20% per year and you are ACTIVELY managing your portfolio, you don't need a manager. That's a good return. Can't you put 401K money (or at least 1/2 of it) into an SDA - self-directed account? How was 2022 for you? If it was around 20%, could I ask what you had invested in? That was a rough year for me. While I lost, I didn't lose anywhere near my friends who used companies and mutual funds.
We used to watch this shit in high school... like, the SDA school thought it was age appropriate for 15 year olds. We fuckin loved it because it meant we didn't have to listen to shit about some beasts in the bible being dinosaurs but it still makes me laugh that my parents paid real money to this school.
Insiders Raymond G Zage III and James Fu Bin Lu owned 72.5% of the shares. Zage had no selling restrictions, everyone else is 1yr lock up (Nov 18th) SDA has 6mos restrictions for everyone (also Nov 18) NWTN has a 6, 2x 12, 18, 24 month restrictions (merged Nov 10) Oabi has a founders unlock at 1yr (Nov 2) TYGO has a 6mos unlock (11/24) and other unlock terms for before and after 90 days-I have to re read those (Aug 22)
Buy $CJET.. go on stocktwits and read everything about it. People did a great research on it. It may go to $60 like all the car stocks- NIO, Ucar, SDA, VFS, all of them. Cjet owns FAW Motor car and they already sold 2 million cars worldwide. GLTY
Suncar SDA SDAWW Does this mean SDA warrants are about to become exercisable? https://finance.yahoo.com/sec-filing/SDA/0001213900-23-064973\_1936804 Just need the “effect” after this? They have been super slow in getting this done after the merger in May.
bought $SDA at 5 and sold at 7. It then proceeded to go to 45 the following week.
Cost plus contracts driving large markups for unnecessary work. Lack of competition caused by only having 5 companies that the DoD sees fit to make primes. Huge contracts that give companies decades long lock-ins. All of these are closely interlinked and drove the defense industry over the last 3 decades. The startup space (really driven by SpaceX's success) has started to break the monopoly. The DoD has been dragged kicking and screaming into the light and seem to enjoy it (see the SDA's contracting strategy for the PWSA and how the Space Force is starting to use the same principles for all of their contracts). And the rest of the military procurement is starting to follow. The only of the big 5 that have made any move in response is RTX with the Blue Canyon and SEAKR purchases.
This sucks! My largest portfolio is in a SDA from my employer, so I have to use the broker that the 401K administrator specifies. I like using TDA’s app for stocks and TOS for options. I really hope they retain the TOS tools/interface.
Get new runners in our app! 06/5 #postmarket $GTLB $FRZA $PDSB $SDA $TCRX
Get new runners in our app! 06/5 #postmarket $GTLB $FRZA $PDSB $SDA $TCRX
Get new runners in our app! 06/5 #postmarket $GTLB $FRZA $PDSB $SDA $TCRX