TIPS

D74248

Well said. I am also 6 years into retirement. I did not go "all cash", but I did move to a much more conservative allocation and built up my bond ladder using TIPS. Anyone feeling smug right now would do well to pick up today's WSJ.

ackackakbar

I am out of the U.S. equities market still and I will hold that position for the foreseeable future. But I am my own unique case and not suggesting it was a “good” decision. I am retired and we are at the stage of life where capital preservation trumps possible investment gains. The funds generated by liquidating my U.S. equities funded a TIPS ladder. I am not out of equities totally. I have a significant position still in ex-US equites.

manotm

I shifted 30% into TIPS when the S&P was at 5800-5900. I feel good about the overall lowered volatility in the portfolio going forward and have no regrets. I feel that earnings will feel the bite in the back half of the year and we will be more or less flat. If I'm wrong, the rest of my portfolio will do just fine and I will enjoy those spoils. I am getting older and 100% equity allocation did not make sense for me any longer.

OsamaBagHolding

I haven't seen ONE LATINA GIVING STOCK TIPS! We are still at basecamp my dudes

Fiveby21

> Nothing will save you if the US defaults. People need to stop focusing on this. The US won't ever default. What they will do - if it comes to it - is inflate the debt away. This will devalue all current bonds (excluding TIPS) and then make future debt very expensive for the US (since they are now a risky debtor).

gizmole

All my cash is in SGOV. So, I'm at least getting 4.62% until I decide. Right now, I am considering my 40% fixed income allocation 35% in 50/50 BND/TIPS, and 5% SGOV.

BusyBee7729

You're right, the debt trajectory is concerning, and while a true default is unlikely, the risks of inflation, currency debasement, or yield spikes are real. Aside from crypto and gold, some hedging strategies people consider include: * Foreign-denominated assets (to reduce USD exposure) * Commodities or real assets like farmland, timber, or energy * Private investments (real estate syndications, private equity) that are less correlated with public markets * Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) * Short-duration or floating-rate fixed income Curious what others are doing as well. It feels like more investors are looking outside traditional stocks/bonds lately.

Frequently_lucky

TIPS or inflation swaps.

skilliard7

I think mid to long range TIPS are better than TLT. Maybe SCHP? Good to have inflation protection, because oil prices might cause inflation.

giraloco

The budget bill will add $5T to the debt. The bond market is not going to like it and bonds will crash with the USD in free fall. On top of that higher interest rates are inflationary. The Fed won't be able to do much with the US losing credibility. Add the impact of tariffs and deportations on prices in the next two quarters. It doesn't look like Treasuries are a safe haven anymore. TIPS depend on the Government not fudging the inflation numbers. They already defunded BLS. So unless the president is impeached I don't see much hope. Also the Fed chair term ends next year if he is still there. A MAGA Fed chair will not help bring calm.

Ok_Bathroom_4810

I think buying TIPS before jp’s term expires might just be a solid gamble.

DoubleSkew

I never understood the appeal of buying TIPS supposed to hedge against rising prices but when inflation actually hits, the adjustments are taxable as income same year 😭 but... I'll take two million par value 😎

notapersonaltrainer

TIPS have duration, which as you can see in recent times has been more negative than the inflation protection was protective for most tenors. To actually hedge out the currency risk you'd have to have most of your portfolio in it because the vol is so low, or lever them up. While a small BTC or medium gold allocation would do the same. Finally you need to trust government not to start fudging CPI methodology in times of balance sheet duress. Not even in an all out conspiratorial way, but just putting their finger on things like hedonic adjustments and other assumptions, etc. I-Bonds have a size limit whereas you can put billions into BTC. Self custody also insulates you from possible capital controls.

Beautiful-Parsley-24

Okay, but you can also buy inflation protected bonds (I-Bonds/TIPS), if you're worried about the devaluation of the dollar? I-Bonds & TIPS are linked to the consumer price index - a diverse basket of goods. What guarantees I can convert bitcoin into butter?

skymagic

execute order 1 minute after BBB passes: TRIPLE TAX ON TIPS ACT

ramdomvariableX

so SPX decided stay within the 10 point band? Will the TIPS auction move it away from the band?

skilliard7

1. International stocks, which have much more favorable valuations. I'm up 40% on FLKR in 2 months. 2. treasury bonds yield 5%, or TIPS yield 2.7% after inflation. This is much higher than the earnings yield on QQQ. >even if we have another 2008, I think QQQ pulledback around 55% then. From 2000 to 2009, QQQ dropped by 75% over the span of a decade. We are very much in similar conditions to what we saw in 2000; excessive valuations not in line with fundamentals due to hype over new technology, macroeconomic risks(trade wars), etc.

medicsansgarantee

Buy a little bit TIPS

burnbabyburn711

What do you mean “fell for the B.S.?” I dumped my U.S. holdings in my tax-advantaged accounts in mid-February, transferring a chunk to foreign holdings, and holding the rest in TIPS and gold. I TACO’d a little of that back into U.S. markets in early April, but am keeping the rest as some dry powder. I’ve done pretty well this year.

D74248

Source: Anonymous person who claims to be old and is using TIPS. You can easily buy the bonds and hold to maturity. Your tax return will be simpler if you hold them in an IRA or in a 401k with a brokerage window. There is always risk, and this approach exposes you to opportunity risk. Take this another step and you can have a plan and build a bond ladder using TIPS. Or you could buy a typical TIPS fund. The trap here, and it is a big one, is that TIPS are very sensitive to interest rate changes. So you are exposed to interest rate risk, and a good bit of it. So notice that buying the bonds and holding them to maturity is not the same thing as buying your typical open ended TIPS fund. There is a third way. There are TIPS ETFs that hold bonds maturing in the same year, and then once they are all cash they liquidate. IBIE is an example. These are designed to be used to build bond ladders, and they function as one rung on the ladder. Buy with limit orders since they are thinly traded (being buy and hold investments). Set for dividend reinvestment. Let run to maturity/liquidation. Rinse, repeat. And I suggest getting a copy of *The Bond Book* by Annette Thau.

malkier11

CPI will be impacted by tariffs (in theory, it was during trumps first term). It should tick up with the expectation it hits 2.5-2.7% at this read. If that happens it signals the market that the US has a real chance of stagflation under trumps policies (print money, try outgrow, tariffs cause high inflation). If we see a jump it would indicate that tariffs are going to cause more inflation so cutting rates compounds this. In this case investors of treasuries might loose faith in the US fiscal policy and monetary system as it tells the market their current policy will cause stagflation. Treasuries in stagflation (outside of TIPS) are a terrible investment. This would result in extreme stress in the bond market (no one wants to buy USA debt at 5% if inflation/stagflation is going to run at 6). That’s the simple answer. What does that mean - if we see inflation/cpi rise today the treasury needs that bond auction to go well, they have basically said here is 10 billion your buying no matter what we need this to look good. It’s common sense monetary policy as high inflation + a bad auction would look extremely bad and could actually cause a collapse. There is about 5-10 things right now that are all just stacking up. 90 day credit delinquency, auto loans (sub prime), maybe unemployment and nfp after revisions, jgbs are actually diabolical that could trip a unwind of the carry trade. Bessent wants to see Japan raise he’s called for it but that strengthens currency/yields. 260% GDP every 1% in rates is some obscene amount of money. Japan’s probably going to slow burn a crash but they could sell treasuries. Issue is they were the largest buyer so you see demand drop. (Hence the 10 billion buyback). They aren’t sure who’s turning up tomorrow. Anyone they have about 37 trillion reasons and bunch of levers to try make this work it’s just tough, they could make it work don’t get me wrong. Gee it would be threading a needle.

TheCuriousBread

The idea of TIPS is in an inflationary environment, you'd at least protect your purchasing power. However, the biggest risk right now isn't inflation, that was 3-5 years ago. Inflation has slowed and the Feds has been unwinding assets. The biggest risk right now is the debasing of the US currency and the US losing their hegemony in the world. With that, you'd see slower economic growth and since the Philips curve dictates, as unemployment increase, inflation decreases, inflation is gonna be the least of our concerns. If you want to hedge against that risk, that'll require you divesting from the US and moving into global stocks and bonds. Europe is a hot alternative right now and has already moved a lot. Looking at what the democrats are doing right now and how the DNC Chair David Hogg basically cried during a meeting about how he has no power. Yeah, things are not looking good post 2028, it'd be more of what we have now and worse. If you're set on investing in the US domestically, treasury rates are looking pretty juicy right now. [https://treasurydirect.gov/](https://treasurydirect.gov/) Not many things in the world can guarantee you almost 5% return yoy.

Ok_Assignment4100

Thanks for the insight. What would you recommend? I’ve been reading about Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) as a safe investment.

medicsansgarantee

Time to bank that win and rotate smart. Sell 80% of your gold, keep 20% as a long-term hedge. Put the cash into: 50% high-yield savings; 30% short-term T-bills; 20% TIPS. This preserves gains and earns steady income. Then just watch the market for opportunities. If you want, add 5% crypto (like ETH) on dips — preferably ones you can stack. It’s volatile and high risk, so keep it small. Your T-bill coupons can cover or soften any losses, letting you ride things out without panic selling.

EnderForHegemon

Treasury Inflation Protects Security The most basic explanation is that TIPS bonds pay out lower rates of interest, but the principal that the interest is calculated from is adjusted for inflation or deflation. So, using simple numbers. Assume a 1% interest rate and you buy a $1,000 bond. If there is zero inflation for the year, you'll receive $10 of interest ($5 every 6 months, as they pay out their interest twice a year). If there is 10% inflation, the principal on your bond is recalculated to $1,100, and you will receive $11 in interest that year. If there is 10% deflation, the principal on your bond is recalculated at $900, and you receive $9 of interest that year. When the bond matures, you receive either the higher, inflation adjusted principal or your original investment, whatever is larger. If there is net deflation, you receive your original principal (that is, if you buy it for 1,000 but, but the time it matures, due to deflation it is worth $900, you will still get your original $1,000 back, but if it inflated to being worth $1,100 then you get the full $1,100). So you are trading a higher return for protection from inflation.

Horcsogg

Ty! What does TIPS mean? Do those affect the market at all or not really?

Commercial-Speech122

Depends on your age. For a 30 year old it's 5/10 portfolio. For a 60 year old, it's 7/10. Get out of gold. That's just a commodity. Much better to just have that money in inflation-proof bonds (TIPS). Also, get out of bonds! Throw all that money into VT. Only use bonds up to 6-12 months of living expenses as your replacement for an emergency savings account. Otherwise you're losing a lot to opportunity cost

Stitch426

If you truly want advice OP. Boggleheads Reddit is all about investing in an index fund, three fund strategy, and just Dollar Cost Averaging. They like to just have automatic investments. So without lifting a finger, their account gets money periodically no matter what is happening in the economy or stock market. Zoomed out, the stock market will most likely go up again in the future. Whether there’s a lost decade or not, a recession, stagflation, or whatever- the index will eventually recover and go up again. Invest in what you know, OP. If you know tech, use that to your advantage. Take smaller positions, and only add to your position when it makes sense. I used to go all in on something too, until I realized that there was a 50% chance it could go lower that day or the next day. Now I go in with smaller positions and dollar cost average down. If my first position is truly the lowest position I could get in at- so be it. I either leave it that way or decide if it’s worth the extra capital for a potential bigger upside. But either way, I can sell positions that are green if I need the capital for another play. I’m not biting my nails if CEG, PLTR, CRM, or whoever have a bad day (they all did recently, lol). Investing in ETFs and index funds allows you to potentially grow your wealth and not have a lawsuit, tweet, or corporate decision tank your entire portfolio. Now you have obviously seen that tech stocks are popular and have crazy ups and downs. You already know you can diversify your risk to other sectors, bonds, TIPS, going international, etc. There doesn’t need to be full port vulnerability. 100k is chump change when it comes to retirement. If nothing else, OP, look into TIPs ladders and CD ladders and things like that. At least attempt to beat inflation while again, not having your full port locked in. The ladder aspect helps you stay more liquid and not wish you didn’t have 20 year treasuries while looking at 14% index gains. In the Boggleheads reddit, they post an article all the time about Bob, the world’s worst investment timer. He always invested right before a crash. He still became a millionaire in the example. Just holding and not selling. He saw red and only red for years. In the end, a millionaire.

Ok_Eye4858

Before you embark on your research - read the book, "A random walk down wall street". If that's a little too much, try "retire before mom and dad" from Rob Berger. Take the time to understand their description on why slow and steady wins the race. It's OK to have 10% of your portfolio as something we call "FOMO" allocation. In that portfolio slice you can buy individual stocks, even options if you really want to spice it up but stick with VTI/BND/TIPS for majority of your portfolio and you should be fine.

xiongchiamiov

>Does bond fund return include total return of capital gains + all dividends? Most graphs are only showing the fund NAV. To look at returns with dividend reinvestment you need to use a tool like https://totalrealreturns.com/ . >Therefore I am having hard time convincing myself investing in something that is almost guaranteed to lose money. I understand that at some point I need to start thinking about capital preservation rather than growth. But investing in bonds does not seem to be a capital preservation. It looks more like a guaranteed capital loss. Bonds are not at all almost guaranteed to lose money. The past couple of years have been rough for them, but that is not an indication of the future. It's also worth noting that many folks close to retirement do a significant chunk of their bonds into TIPS. Bonds tend to be more stable, that is true. But they are also less than perfectly correlated with stocks, which to my mind is the more important thing here because you're not going to shift to an all-bond portfolio: we're trying to use modern portfolio theory to reduce risk of the overall portfolio and thus avoid sequence of returns risk. If bonds have some ho-hum time and stocks do great, then that's perfectly good and working as intended; and if stocks go in the shitter and bonds don't, that's also working as intended. You need to think about the portfolio rather than individual positions. (I like to backtest against 2000-2010 as a particularly rough example of time.) Also if you haven't seen it, you'll probably find https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-portfolio-size-effect-with-bond-tent-in-retirement-red-zone/ interesting.

medicsansgarantee

T bill ladder , profit -> 30% VOO, 30% TIPS ; 30% btc+ eth , ( 30% btc, 70% eth because of stack )

Mr_Pricklepants

This is like asking, "Is now a bad time to invest in stocks?" What bonds? What duration? What countries? Even if US, only treasuries or potentially corporate or other? If only treasuries, long or short? What about TIPS? Everything is a gamble against future interest rates, inflation, currency valuations, and the trustworthiness of the payor. In virtually all cases, the longer the duration, the bigger the gamble. It's possible to lose \*lots\* of money on bonds especially those of intermediate and long duration. If you're in bond funds, you don't even have much control over whether the losses are real losses rather than opportunity cost losses if you're holding bonds yourself. I hold quite a bit of bonds, both US and foreign, but I'm very conscious of the risks.

xiongchiamiov

VBIL is currently yielding 4.19%, which over 7 years would give you a 34% rate of return. The rate will vary depending on what's happening with treasuries though, so for something guaranteed I'd look at CDs (or potentially bonds that'll mature then). I see some stuff while searching around Schwab that would be more than your needed rate of return. Depending on how you got this number, you may need to think about inflation as well. It would be hard to get anything with a _guaranteed_ real rate of return high enough (I think about 2.6% APY); i-bonds aren't that high currently, and I don't think any TIPS are either. You'd have to go with more risk and higher expected returns to compensate, but expected returns are not actual returns especially on that timescale.

Inspiration_Bear

TIPS also relies upon CPI being calculated accurately by the federal government. How much do you trust that if real inflation explodes under Trump?

dejavu725

On TIPs, the principal amount grows with CPI and will have lower coupon rates than comparable treasuries. TIPS are interest rate sensitive though, so can still lose money when rates go up - they went up a lot during that period. The ETFs just hold a portfolio of TIPS so still offer inflation protection.

therealjerseytom

> so I want to rebalance my portfolio to protect against this possibility, in the short term. Here's the critical question: Is there a high likelihood you will need this money in the short term? Can you even *access* this money short term? Like if it's in an IRA and you're years away from 59.5, not so much. In any event let's assume that this is in fact an account with short-term goals. Certain sectors are less economically sensitive than others. Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (VDC) are examples; still gotta buy paper towels and pay the electric bill, even in a recession. Dividend stocks can be lower volatility than the market on the whole. SCHD is one. HDV has an even lower beta IIRC. Bonds are certainly a thing, lot of different options there. TIPS would protect against inflation. Long treasuries (TLT) could be a hedge against rates being cut. For my short-term pool account I do roughly 1/3 each of low-volatility/defensive equities, bonds, and cash (money market). But that's just me. For my long-term accounts I just stay invested.

ErroneousEncounter

What about TIPS? I had been reading about them, because they are supposed to be “inflationary protected” but when I looked at TIPS ETFs (TIP, VTIP) and the time period from March 2021 to June 2022… it seems as if it actually decreased in value. Does one have to purchase TIPS directly to get the inflation protection? Or am I missing something else?

skilliard7

Honestly content with long term TIPS as a contrarian bet. 2.7% real yield is not bad when you consider that current stock valuations are likely to result in 0-2% real returnsover the next 10-20 years. I don't think sitting in cash makes sense unless you plan to use the money soon. 4-4.5% yields might be nice, but what if yields drop to 1-2% due to a recession? Then you're stuck with a yield that is less than inflation, and don't really have investment options(bonds would go up in price)

D74248

I see this as a risk and asset allocation exercise, not market valuations in and of themselves. In that light, I have moved to a more conservative asset allocation. I am in early retirement using a bond tent, and the end result is that the planning for the bond tent is now steeper. It also includes more TIPS [the actual bonds, plan to hold to maturity]. "You can not time the market" has a very specific meaning, or at least it used too. It does not mean that you ignore risk while [chanting "time in the market beats timing the market"](https://youtu.be/YgYEuJ5u1K0)

RevolutionaryPhoto24

If I see one more “buy TIPS article,” I swear. I’ll read it and then act like that never happened.

New_Most_2863

Trump: Like the other two, TIPS AND OVERTIME, No Tax on Social Security is being done also, but in a different form, a large deduction after which many will have no tax to pay. Thank you!

skilliard7

> If an elevated PE ratio has been in place for decades, I think that the former “standard” PE ratio has become outdated in usefulness for current and future investing. Not true, the benchmark is interest rates. High P/E was justified because interest rates were low. When bonds were paying 2%, overvalued equities still offered better returns. But now that you can get 5% on 30 year bonds, or 2.7% on 30 year TIPS + inflation adjustments, the case for equities really isn't there unless you genuinely believe AI will deliver much faster earnings growth than historically despite its intense capital costs.

Ivy0789

No, but we have a 3Y, 10Y, and 30Y auction next week. And a 20Y and 5Y TIPS the following.

minutestomidnight

TMF? TIPS? Which bonds? I'm regarded btw.

D74248

I am not a financial advisor by any means, and certainly not qualified to give advice. But I can offer some suggestions. Does your 401k have a brokerage window? If not, start campaigning for one. In my experience (two companies) HR will resist but senior management will be on board. The purpose of a brokerage window is not to actively trade, but rather to get a broader selection. As I approached retirement, I used mine to hold actual bonds, preferred shares, defined maturity bond ETFs and even a couple of Closed End Funds (CEF). I suggest picking up *The Bond Book* by Annette Thau. It is surprisingly readable. It is also a bit dated, but bonds do not change much so the only "not in there" that I see is the existence of defined maturity bond ETFs, which would be an excellent tool to use in 401k brokerage window to build out a bond ladder. Which leads too: Consider using a bond ladder. Bond funds are fine during the accumulation phase, but IMO actual bonds held to maturity provide a much more stable platform as one approaches and enters retirement. Consider TIPS. Buy the actual bonds, plan to hold to maturity. General advice is to hold these in a retirement account because of tax issues. However there are now defined maturity bond ETFs using TIPS, which simplifies the tax issues. Buy with limit orders (since they are buy & hold investments they are thinly traded), set dividend reinvestment ON, let run to liquidation. The problem with open ended TIPS funds is that TIPS valuations are very sensitive to interest rate changes, making them more volatile than you would expect from a bond fund. Thus the "buy the bond, hold to maturity" approach. Consider setting up a bond tent. This is an idea that flies against conventional wisdom, but given your age, market valuations and the political situation it might be a good idea. Or not -- YMMV. Two more reading suggestions. Wade Pfau, who is well qualified, has published a number of books on retirement planning. And then there is Michael McClung's opus, *Living Off Your Money". He goes very deep and I opted for a simpler strategy, but it is well worth the read even if you keep to the shallow end of the pool. Best of luck.

MysteriousCoat1692

Hold a TIPS bond versus an ETF, and the principle will adjust to inflation (or deflation) accurately.

VeryStableGenius

The inflation estimated this way is the long term future estimate of inflation, which is expected to revert to close to the Fed's 2% target. So the Invisible Hand expects that the Fed will almost meets its inflation target for the next 3 decades. If you think this is wrong and inflation will be well over 2%, then short bonds and buy TIPS.

VeryStableGenius

> Even when the CPI was at 7%+ TIPS didn't rise to any meaningful degree compared to the reality. The difference between bonds and TIPS represents the 30 year average (geometric mean, probably) of inflation, and covid inflation was not expected to last for the duration of the bond. > Even looking at the current 20 TIPS (2.55%) vs the 30 TIPS (2.66%), it's saying there will be a difference of .11% inflation over a 10 year period? 30 year regular bonds also pay more than (curently non-existent) 20 year regular bonds. so the TIPS should follow, and 30 year TIPS should pay a little more than 20 year TIPS. If the difference between TIPS and bonds were *not* the expected inflation rate, then you could use your superior estimate of inflation to perform low-risk leveraged arbitrage and make a killing. So the market will erase any non-inflationary (and non-tax) difference between TIPS and bonds.

Hour-Animal432

I would argue this is not accurate.  Even when the CPI was at 7%+ TIPS didn't rise to any meaningful degree compared to the reality. Even looking at the current 20 TIPS (2.55%) vs the 30 TIPS (2.66%), it's saying there will be a difference of .11% inflation over a 10 year period? That doesn't make much sense to me... What I would suggest is that the rest of the world isn't dumb, they know if the US were to default, they wouldn't default in the traditional sense. They would inflate away the problem by printing money, this is why I believe they are demanding higher rates. The rest of the world is increasingly becoming aware that this is the most likely scenario. 

VeryStableGenius

> the reason why is because these are inflation expectations and a proxy for sentiment. Inflation expectation should the gap between 30 year TIPS and 30 year T-bonds, which is 4.98%-2.66%=2.32%. So inflation is expected to be a smidge above the Fed target of 2%. We can graph this value of 30 year bonds minus 30 year TIPS: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JiyK Today's value is pretty typical. 2010-2015 expected 2.3% inflation; then 2014-2019 expected 1.8% to 2.2% inflation. Then during covid the inflation expectation was briefly 1.2%, then since 2021 it held steady at about 2.2%.

TopherBrennan

That was the 10Y TIPS though, wasn't it? So nervousness about interest ratss going up may be masked by nervousness about inflation.

giraloco

There is risk in long treasuries and there is a reason why yields are high. You don't lose nominal dollars but if inflation is greater than the interest rates you lose purchasing power which is what you need in retirement. In normal times, it is relatively safe. With this Gov inflation can spiral out of control. In that scenario, conservative stocks will outperform bonds because in the long term they can raise prices to keep up with inflation. With bonds your losses are permanent. Just keep this in mind in your allocation and consider TIPS for the most conservative part of your portfolio.

Plastic-Guarantee-88

Stock market participants can and do worry about crashes. There's been a lot of volatility this year. Does the bond market matter? Well **TIPs have been rising a lot over the last two years**, They are now at 2.68%. Just over two years ago, they were basically 0%. It's notable when something changes that dramatically. Well, 2.68% isn't all that high, some people say. It's been worse a couple times in the last 25 years. And when? * In Fall 2008, TIPs spiked above 3%. * In Winter/Spring 2000, TIPS spiked above 4%. So, yes, it's been worse in modern history. But then again those two times it was worse were just before two of the biggest crashes in history. This is why people pay attention to the bond market. You better believe the market is going to be paying close attention the to the next TIPs auction. If our fiscal and trade policy continue to be erratic, it's going to be ugly.

skilliard7

I disagree. Long term bonds are only a bad idea for short term investing. If you are a long term investor and don't need to pull more than a 2-3% per year, 20/30 year bonds are the best option. Especially TIPS. You get an extra 1% of yield for taking on duration risk. And if you can afford to hold to maturity, a 2.8% inflation adjusted yield or 5% nominal yield is not bad. However, there is also upside potential. If yields go back to where they were in 2020-2021, there is 80-100% upside in TIPS prices. And giving the circumstances that cause bond yields to fall, this could be an opportunity to buy the dip in stocks while your bond prices are up 80%.

D74248

Over the past 6 months I have enlarged my bond ladder with TIPS. I buy the actual bonds and will hold to maturity. The 2035 TIPS is paying 2.145% on top of its inflation adjustment. Which is not bad, especially if you look at the historical 10 year returns on the S&P 500 when its CAPE is over 30. Currently the S&P 500 CAPE is over 35. Of course I make no claims to knowing the future.

Strict-Hearing-177

Good to know ALL trades are just TIPS from 🥭

VeryStableGenius

TIPS paying 2.7% over inflation until the economy tanks. This would be a bet on a new round of QE if things get bad. Risk: real rates go up. It's something to consider.

ComprehensiveKiwi489

How long until TIPS damage starts to blow up the market?

ComprehensiveKiwi489

How long will it take until TIPS damage blows up the market?

gratatatatatatat

Everyone saying bond auction when it was just a TIPS auction...do you people actually do your research in the wsb comments???

ConclusionEven6917

Lol, this is the example of someone who had never heard of the bond auctions and because one moved the markets thinks now it'll happen everytime. We don't even have one today outside of 10 year TIPS and T-Bills which don't matter.

Acceptable_Bed_6033

Stupid bull TIPS bonds selling well is bearish

hypsignathus

"TIPS, inflation-indexed securities, are designed to shield investors from inflation-risk. The principal is adjusted for inflation. Instead of getting back your initial investment of $1,000, for instance, you would get $1,000 plus an additional amount tied to the inflation rate. Coupon payments will also be based on the continuously inflation-adjusted principal amount, but since there is no inflation premium included in the nominal interest rate (coupon), interest payments (and yields attached to the TIPS) are lower than for regular Treasury securities. Economists and policymakers consider the differential between yields on 10-year TIPS and regular 10-year notes to be a proxy for investors' estimate of inflation expectations." [https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/2025/03/feed633066.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/2025/03/feed633066.html)

TopherBrennan

Bid-to-cover ratio on the 10Y TIPS auction was basically the same as the last one, but less than the January auction: * January: [https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R\_20250123\_3.pdf](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250123_3.pdf) * March: [https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R\_20250320\_3.pdf](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250320_3.pdf) * Today: [https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R\_20250522\_3.pdf](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250522_3.pdf)

twinst

I get that but bond yields have been dropping since the TIPS auction so far. Not the expected response despite a bad showing

HodlMoonStonks

It’s tips, so it’s an inflationary protection bond, strong demand is usually bearish for equities, selling at high shows demand was robust. Strong demand for TIPS typically means investors are willing to accept lower yields (higher bond prices) because TIPS are seen as a safe haven, especially during inflationary periods since they protect against rising prices.

TopherBrennan

I don't know. It's lower than the result yesterday that freaked everyone out but maybe the TIPS market is different.

Plane_Platypus_379

just remember guys the TIPS auction closes at 1pm EST but we don't get the results right away, takes like 15 - 30 minutes

Stateof10

TIPS auction

rbraalih

Tips vs TIPS I think but who knows

7253uy

10 year TIPS soon? Do you guys think we'll see similar movement like yesterday? Feel like any bad news may be priced in already at this point, & good news could make this jump... Jacked to the tits on 0DTE SPY puts btw

G0RD0N_CLARK

No income tax on TIPS now right?

OffTheDivingBoard

TIPS getting yippy 

81458145

Results of the 10yr TIPS bond auction. Yesterday’s didn’t go well and caused a selloff

Top-Quantity4822

THE TIPS ARE MAKING ME SO HORNY 

G0RD0N_CLARK

Jacked to the absolute TIPS

Notonfoodstamps

MM’s when the TIPS bond goes shits up https://preview.redd.it/7zznqz4k5d2f1.jpeg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6bf489ee301fca1430491b685dc7d622a19ab8d9

Klutzy_Literature437

TIPS in 10 mins

Emilio___Molestevez

10y TIPS

LetsConsultTheMap

Boss scheduled a meeting for 1. It's like he doesn't even care about the TIPS

PocaMadre69

Is the Fed making 0 bids for the 10 year TIPS bullish?

TopherBrennan

So, coupon rate in TIPS auction is apparently already fixed. Is it possible for the auction to produce a negative real yield to maturity?

TopherBrennan

Source for timing of TIPS auction (1pm): [https://tipswatch.com/2025/05/18/thursdays-10-year-tips-reopening-deserves-some-attention/](https://tipswatch.com/2025/05/18/thursdays-10-year-tips-reopening-deserves-some-attention/)

Sea-Annual5395

Incorrect. 10Y TIPS auction begins @ 1pm EST. 11am was Kansas fed composite index. Hold on to your butts.

SmallCapsOnly

Idk but you can have my TIPS whenever you want 😉

noplanman_srslynone

Just the TIPS

99Fan

No tax on tips and TIPS! Bullish

brostrummer

When is TIPS auction?

TopherBrennan

Minimum bid for TIPS auction is 0.125%. Probably nobody's *that* shook about inflation yet but I am sort of morbidly curious to know what the smallest bid anyone will place today is.

anonymouse_slut

TIPS at 1pm again. 

Ahrixz

how is the 10yr TIPS auction going

TopherBrennan

Whoops, earlier I somehow missed that today they're not just auctioning off T-bills, but the 10Y TIPS. That makes today so much more interesting.

TopherBrennan

Oh shit. And it's 10Y TIPS which could be extra-interesting.

Sir_Trashbin

How long is the TIPS/ bond auction? And where do you see the results

Worried_Quarter469

the bond auction yesterday was bad because institutions were allocating more money for the TIPS auction today, which seems like a likely scenario

Spanisbro

Is there actually any situation where the TIPS acution goes great instead of horrible like the bond auctions? Like what would be the logic behind it

theperezident94

Am I crazy or was the TIPS auction supposed to happen 5 minutes ago? They pushed it forward an hour?

LongHealth

TIPS being inserted into bull anus at 1PM.

adventurecapitalist

I suspect the 10 year TIPS auction at 1:00 today will have robust demand because people believe that the US will pay its bills but is going to try and inflate away it's debt problem so they want the inflation protection. If I'm wrong and demand is weak I think we drill as it's a clear signal from the bond market that the US is not a good credit risk. I think most likely theta wins the day but if we start moving down at 1:00 it could look like yesterday.

skilliard7

then do 30 year TIPS, 2.8% after inflation yield, still more than doubling your purchasing power in 30 years