TIPS

pigglesthepup

You want a **short-term** treasury fund. >TIP (iShares TIPS Bond ETF) Crashed hard in 2008 because CPI cratered and Lehman was the largest holder of TIPS at the time and dumped them all to raise cash. Also took a beating in 2022 from the rate hikes because intermediate duration (6 years). Both of these things are visible on TIP's full chart (why do people not look at charts?). A **short-term** TIPS fund like VTIP/STIP will have less volatility. VTIP/STIP returns have been better than BSV (nominal treasuries + investment grade corporates) in recent years because higher inflation. >AGG (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF) Not short-term. Treasury holdings will keep it stable tho. Longer duration treasury funds have "crisis alpha" -- they *rise* in value during deflationary shocks. See the performance of TLT or EDV during 2008, Covid, or even this past April for an example. But they are not short-term. Only put in money you don't need for a long time.

Alone_Owl8485

The most cautious thing to do would be to move everything to an ETF with inflation protected treasuries (TIPS). You will not make big returns but you are also unlikely to lose much in a market downturn. https://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/inflation-protected-bonds/

21plankton

Hunker down with some TIPS and high yield savings accounts, stay put in the market and rotate industries as appropriate. Lower my expectations for growth and cut my spending, try not to buy a new car despite the good deals. Shop yard sales and secondary markets for needed items, rely on cheap hobbies and basic food products and a daily vitamin. Come to think of it I do a fair amount of this already. Clear out that second bedroom that ended up storage because some friend or family member will need it. I lived through the last major stagflation. So far this one is stagflation light but I expect it to get worse.

ErroneousEncounter

TIPS did not do well during the post-pandemic stagflation period. Consumer staples did sort of okay but fell off pretty fast. Same with commodities. Even value stocks drop during stagflation. But you can pick them up at a discount. Energy did the best IMO. Inflation raises energy prices and people have to pay for energy no matter what.

LongDarkTeeTime

I have my cash in VMFXX that is yielding 4ish%. Why not something like that instead of TIPS ( or VTIP ETF)?

Prospero_Ai

Good question. Stagflation is one of those scenarios where basically every traditional playbook falls apart because nothing really works cleanly. The textbook answer is commodities and energy, like you mentioned. Historically those have held up better when inflation stays high and growth stalls. The problem is timing matters a ton. Commodities can be incredibly volatile and if you're early or late by even a few months, you can get wrecked on the swings. Inflation-linked bonds (TIPS) sound good in theory but the real yields have been pretty terrible, and if we're talking true stagflation, you're essentially accepting negative real returns just to not lose as much as cash. Not exactly exciting. Here's what to focus on if stagflation started looking real: **1. Dividend aristocrats with pricing power.** Companies that can pass inflation onto customers and have maintained dividends through multiple recessions. Think boring stuff like utilities, consumer staples with strong brands. Not sexy, but they tend to survive better than growth stocks when everything's ugly. **2. Energy, but selectively.** Not just broad commodity exposure. Look for companies with strong balance sheets and consistent free cash flow. When growth slows, the leveraged players get crushed. **3. Gold.** Everyone rolls their eyes at gold bugs, but in a stagflation environment where real rates are negative and trust in monetary policy is shaky, gold historically does its job as a store of value, we are seeing this play out already this year. **4. Short duration bonds.** If you need fixed income exposure, keep duration short. Long bonds get destroyed in persistent inflation. The harder question is how do you actually know stagflation is starting versus just a rough patch? That's where watching what big money is doing matters. The honest answer is there's no perfect playbook here. Stagflation is brutal because it's a lose-slow scenario across most asset classes. Your goal isn't to win, it's to lose less than everyone else while staying liquid enough to deploy capital when things eventually turn.

watch-nerd

TIPS

No-Associate-6068

You nailed the core playbook. It's all about rotating into real assets and things with pricing power. * Energy/Commodities: Absolutely. You're owning the source of the inflation. Gold is the classic "fear" trade. * "Boring" Value Stocks: I'd look hard at consumer staples (people still buy soap), healthcare, and utilities. Companies that can raise prices and not lose customers. High-growth tech with no profits gets wrecked. * Bonds: TIPS (inflation-linked) are literally designed for this. I'd avoid long-duration bonds like the plague. * Cash: Holding excess cash is just a guaranteed loss of purchasing power.

wjonagan

Yep, Real assets and TIPS have historically been the best defense. I've been slowly shifting some allocation that direction without going overboard. Keeping dry powder for opportunities is underrated advice too, stagflation markets tend to be choppy as hell.

pnw-techie

What historical period had stagflation and also had TIPS?

W_Malinowski

gold first, then energy when things seem like they're going to start improving. would never buy TIPS because the yield is tied to cpi as far as i know, which obviously doesn't reflect the real decline in purchasing power.

Deep_Luck-

Stagflation’s tricky because there’s no clean “win.” Historically, the stuff that tends to hold up best is real assets (commodities/energy), TIPS or other inflation-linked bonds, and strong-cash-flow/value stocks. I wouldn’t panic-rotate everything, though, usually the smart move is staying diversified, upping exposure to inflation-hedges gradually, and keeping some liquidity for volatility.

kiwimancy

Similar, yes. Both are linked to CPI. Series I savings bonds are non-marketable, redeemable at par after 5 years (or with a 3 month interest penalty after 1 year), and have a yearly buying limit of $10k per tax id per year plus 10k more on paper with enough of a tax refund. Rates are set twice a year on a lag compared to TIPS. TIPS are a marketable security that one can buy by the billions if desired.

Immediate-Check7803

I took out all my holdings in companies that donated to destroying the East Wing and put it in TIPS. Now I am rooting for DOG.

MetricT

The best proxy for gold is usually gold miner stocks. For small increase/decrease in gold price, gold miner stocks tend to increase/decrease by ~1.5x. For larger increase in gold price, that's not necessarily true. Gold is getting harder to find, more expensive to refine, so a doubling in gold prices doesn't necessarily translate into a doubling of gold miner stock prices. I should add that, while I rode FSAGX (gold miner fund) to a > 100% return since January, I suspect the "easy money" is gone, so I'm rotating to other assets like TIPS. I'd wait for a crash before piling back in.

neurapathy

TIPS?  Pardon my ignorance. 

MaddRamm

Thank you! Yeah I’m not interested in ETFs but the actual TIPS. Most of my accounts are retirement accounts. I wouldn’t bother with bonds with my one taxable trading account.

D74248

You can easily buy TIPS at any of the major brokerages. TIPS funds do not behave the way retail investors often expect. Best, IMO, to buy the actual bonds and hold to maturity — that way you get the expected result. Or *defined maturity* ETFs, held to liquidation. There are tax complications, so for most of us they are best held in retirement accounts.

MaddRamm

How are you investing directly in TIPS? Government website?

debtmagnet

You don't even need to look to Japan. There's historical precedent in the USA. If you had invested in the S&P500 in 1968, you wouldn't have achieved a real return until 1995. That's a span of 27 years, more than half of a typical working career, without a return. Even if you follow the advice to "wait it out", it's not historically uncommon to be in the red in real terms for extended spans of time: 13 years for dot com, 7 years for the GFC. The uncertainty is part of the bargain of broad market index investing. If you can't deal with it, then you can invest in 5-year TIPS and enjoy your fairly reliable real return of 1.2%.

MetricT

At current overvaluation, the S&P 500 should return an average of *negative 3-4%* per year over the next decade. TIPS are a bargain right now.

Gbank1111

Add to this the yield on long term tips is over 2% I anticipate the market will very likely underperform the TIPS over the coming 10 years

MetricT

I bought gold miners in January.  Up > 100% in 10 months.   Sold the day before gold sold off last Friday. I'm now 50% TIPS/50% cash.  That's how well I think the stock market is going right about now. The stock market is at record overvaluation and the yield curve is normallizing?   Hardest of hard passes.

D74248

Use yo moneys to buy TIPS.

bank_truth

Keep a chunk in your HYSA so you can max out I-bonds early next year. They’re at a 1.10% fixed rate plus inflation right now and don’t swing with market yields. STIP or VTIP dropped when rates spiked in 2022. Buying individual TIPS or defined-maturity ETFs and holding to payout keeps that risk down. SGOV is fine for short-term Treasuries, less rate exposure but no inflation bump. Rates can always rise or fall depending on the Fed. For HYSAs you can check updated rates on our website before moving money.

asml84

Most is invested in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - almost cash. My goal is to preserve purchasing power, not more, not less.

ikeepeatingandeating

I've read a boglehead-y approach is to split your bond allocation into half TIPS and half intermediate term bonds if you're nearing retirement. I went 50/50. Seems good enough.

D74248

If you want inflation protection I suggest buying the actual TIPS bonds -OR- defined maturity TIPS ETFs [IBIE is an example]. Hold to maturity/liquidation. However TIPs are usually used for longer term inflation protection, not short term. Typical TIPS funds that maintain a constant duration are volatile due to interest rate exposure. They do not behave the way that retail investors often expect. TIPS bonds held in a taxable account create phantom income since the inflation adjustments are taxable. This can be a PIA at tax time. The defined maturity TIPS ETFs simply this, though the end result is the same. TLDR: Buy the actual bonds or use defined maturity ETFs. Hold to maturity.

D74248

Given the high valuations (not value -- *valuations*) I have shifted to 40/60, increased my international exposure within the equity allocation and have bought TIPS that mature between 2029 and 2034.

gametimevinee23

TIPS TO MAKE MONEY THIS WEEK. Entry is key don't FOMO into a play if you do scalp 10-20% and get going those who entered early should scale out sell 25% of shares at certain level, then another 25% if price move up again called DCA out so you don't sell all at once and can bag higher profit. Then set a stop loss remember a 50% loss needs a 100% gain to break even. Overnight Trading since you can enter trades when most ppl cant even trade, getting in premarket is kind of a disadvantage since people can trade and people have limit order coming through which ruins the whole point of early entry.

pnw-techie

Why are you trashing bonds if your problem is TIPS? That's like 1% of the bond market. It's only for unexpected inflation. You don't want unexpected inflation, so you don't want TIPS to do well. I have never owned TIPS. I have owned bonds for decades. I've made lots of money from bonds. Just by buying BND. That's the normal standard bogleheads pick.

GAV17

> Then why is the dollar declining Because rates are going down, the dollar index is at the same level as before the pandemic when rates where lower than today. It only went higher post pandemic. The Fed has a double mandate, employment and inflation. With employment being trash this year and inflation going closer to the target and rate way above inflation, they decided to prioritize employment. That's not a secret and has been said a ton by them. The rate being above inflation by 100 to 200 bps is an anomaly of the last almost 2 decades. People do not fear inflation, the bought metals because it's a hedge against a possible economic downturn the thing the Fed is worried about. Bonds and stocks are going up because of rates going down, stocks are historically high price while bonds aren't. There's also an error in thinking that the same investors that are buying gold are the ones buying stocks or buying bonds. There's several different opinions about where the stock market is going and where the best hedge is. There's not an inflation fear in the market, thats why TIPS yields have remain constant. They should have gone down otherwise. If you think they are wrong you should buy high duration TIPS.

ConcentrateOk523

No but bonds have done nothing for me the last 9 years. It is frustrating because the US stock market goes up up and all I hear from Tom Lee, Jeremy Siegal, Nancy Tengler, Ed Yardeni and others is how the bull market is intact and going higher. I buy TIPS and of course there is no unexpected inflation. I am better off listening to the people on CNBC. Putting 20 percent of my portfolio in bonds 9 years ago was a huge mistake. The only ones predicting a crash is the people on Reddit. Now I do not know what to do.

SmokeSignalsFinance

I feel that, I diversified Into long duration treasuries awhile back as well so I’ve been seeing returns there but the majority of my thesis is into TIPS.

ConcentrateOk523

Yes I bought TIPS but as usual the minute I buy, nominal bonds outperform. I guess unexpected inflation is not occurring.

Key-Boat-7519

OP, 1.25% AUM is steep; near retirement you can get strong planning for \~0.3–0.7% or a flat annual fee, so I’d keep shopping. Ask any advisor for a written IPS, rebalancing policy, tax-location plan, Roth conversion and Social Security timing, plus withdrawal guardrails; if they can’t show that, move on. If you’re light on complexity, a simple 2–3 bucket setup works: 1–2 years in cash/short Treasuries, the rest split between a global stock index and intermediate Treasuries/TIPS; rebalance yearly and harvest losses in taxable. Flat‑fee CFPs via NAPFA or XYPN are good fits without alternatives/trusts. Vanguard PAS and Facet handled planning well for me, and for the bond sleeve I compared brokered CDs at Fidelity with MYGAs at [gainbridge.io](http://gainbridge.io) to lock in guaranteed yields. Bottom line: pay for planning, taxes, and behavior, not market watching; lower-cost beats 1.25% for most.

rbraalih

TIPS GLD AMMO I'm not joking

D74248

There are of course many approaches. I use actual bonds and defined maturity bond ETFs, always held to maturity. In this case probably nominal Treasuries for years/rungs 1 to 4, then TIPS for years/rungs 5 to 10.

Own-Character395

TIPS Gold (maybe late to that party) REITs Consumer staples Healthcare (maybe, high PE) Utilities (maybe, AI energy craze)

D74248

> What other choice is there A TIPS ladder. Tilting the portfolio towards value. Increasing international exposure.... There are a lot of asset allocation changes that a careful investor can make today if they decide that the S&P 500 is carrying too much risk for the potential returns.

notreallydeep

Barely. CPI is like 3% and inflation expectations as measured by TIPS/note spreads aren't high either. As for the Dollar, that's relative to other currencies. The Dollar's value relative to, whatever, the Euro, doesn't matter for US asset prices outside of companies exporting goods to Europe. But since many US companies do export goods abroad, you're half-right.

FrankDrebinOnReddit

I would not do that. For example gold is down 5.2% today. In 1980 gold fell and took 20 years to recover. Use treasuries (including TIPS if you prefer), treasury ETFs, or money market funds for your emergency fund.

Key-Boat-7519

If you want to retire in three years and keep principal for your kid, start de‑risking now by building a 3–5 year income bucket and letting the rest stay in stocks. What’s worked for me: estimate the Roth’s annual discretionary need, then park 2 years in short T‑bills or a rolling ladder and the next 3 in short/intermediate Treasuries or a TIPS ladder. Keep the equity sleeve broad (S&P 500) and, if you want smoother cash flow, add a slice of VYM or SCHD, knowing they’re still equities. Automate dividends/coupons into cash, rebalance annually or at 5% bands, and spend from the cash/Treasury bucket during downturns so you’re not forced to sell stocks. I use Vanguard’s Target Retirement Income for a simple 30/70 mix and Fidelity’s Treasury ladder tool for 5‑year rungs; for a slice of guaranteed yield in the fixed bucket, gainbridge.io’s fixed annuities have been a set‑and‑forget option. Bottom line: secure 3–5 years of cash flows now, let the rest compound, and refill the cash bucket on good years.

HoldOk4092

TIPS

LeftTesticleOfGreatn

The beauty of bear markets and black swans...they teach many high and mighty traders a lifelong lesson in humility. Covid alone was enough to make the most "900 units, bam! Free real estate!" bulls go on life support and start chasing bonds and TIPS even in this sub. Some of us do have a good risk profile, aka not 100% stocks because...I know myself. And this I could sleep easy, stay invested and DCA during the dip.

Smart-Preferences123

Exactly this. The counter party risk with TIPS is the money printer guys. I think a credit default swap at AIG in 2008 was a safer bet.

anally_ExpressUrself

Furthermore, TIPS pays out based on a number that the US government makes up. These days, if it's the wrong number, you get fired. How much do you trust the government to generate a fair number?

Delicious-Smoke-9783

Finally a real answer in all the doomer bullshit and gallows humor. Continue to buy broad stock indexes. But mix in TIPS or other securities that will beat inflation so that you have some dry powder if we do get a pullback that isn’t crushed by the falling USD. Gold and crypto are not negatively correlated to stock market crashes.

Own-Character395

I am moving to a more defensive position. I was at about 16% bonds and I'm now at 23% on my way to 25%. Not doing it all at once to get an average price. I also diversified my bonds to include foreign bonds (BNDX) as well as TIPS (SCHP for now. May but some directly later.) I was at 1% gold and over the last few months have increased that to 2%. I would like it to be 5% but I'll do that over years rather than but at what might be the high. I have also shifted from about 10% foreign equities to 15% For domestic equities I have shifted to about 15% in "defensive" sectors including consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, and 10% into sectors that sell hard assets(REITs, energy and mining). That still leaves 25% in the s&p which I will keep because any further movement would result in big taxable gains, otherwise I would bring it down to 20%

PleasantTrust522

Nah, they're releasing the CPI report because they need it for the cost of living adjustments of Social Security and payouts for TIPS (inflation-linked bonds) holders. Although I do think it's ridiculous that they're sitting on the employment report (all data already collected during September) and simply not releasing it. Powell was pretty clear that he hadn't seen the number. I do agree with you that the employment report was probably good. Still, can't wait for CPI. If it's bad, the Fed will already be in its blackout period so we might get a genuine surprise at the FOMC meeting. Not likely at all, but possible.

PleasantTrust522

No, the CPI report is officially scheduled for release on Oct 24 despite the shutdown. Some BLS employees have been called back to prepare it, as it is necessary for Social Security cost of living adjustments and for TIPS payouts.

kiwimancy

They should. Real assets like gold and TIPS help diversify a portfolio which contains a large allocation to nominal bonds.

GoldChallenge6287

Among other things. Gold has no “real return” factor - interest, dividends, growth. It’s return is more or less the rate of inflation. This hedge is replicated partially by TIPS, REITs and global equity exposure but over a long timeframe, gold either drastically underperforms equities or outperforms for decade long stretches. So yes, right now it seems like a missed opportunity but over 20-30 years, that 5% allocation may cause a 200bp drag on your ARR.

jart

Three years ago America froze $300b of Russian money held in Western banks. Russia then adopted the gold standard for the rouble. So the US Treasury and London Bullion Market Association banned trading gold with Russia too. This shook up BRICSA and made them all goldbugs. Most of the retail demand is coming from those regions. We're also seeing an outflow from treasuries, which used to be a way for investors to extract surplus value from American labor. Unfortunately the U.S. has been debasing the dollar to fund retirements, which on the spending side now consumes more than half of the revenue that the federal government collects. They can't tell the truth about inflation because retirees all hold TIPS so they'd need to give even more to retirees if CPI went way up. Since US retirees hold more treasuries than anyone else, they're starting to realize they've actually been picking their own pockets and are starting to buy gold. Goldman said a month ago when it was $3500/oz that if just 1% of them do this, then it's gonna go to $5000/oz. The Chinese are promoting their digital yuan as a new international currency, and they recently made it exchangeable for gold, although they peg it at the 200 day SMA so it's in the interests of the U.S. to keep gold prices high to keep the dollar competitive.

oldmanballsacks81

I am glad I rebalanced my 401k from 100% stocks to 50% international, 30% low volatility stocks, rest in TIPS. I am out of US markets until taco is in charge. USD is devaluating rapidly ,inflation out of control, economy in turmoil, AI bubble, people using buy now pay later to buy food wtf.... Had a nice ride for the last 18 years and rode the full bull market and now time to preserve those retirement gains.

ConcentrateOk523

I am stocks and bonds with basically a four fund portfolio and TIPS. I do not believe in gold. My issue is gold does not produce any income and physical gold is just for some dealer to make a huge profit. What would five percent in gold due for my portfolio?

MetricT

It depends on where you work. 403b's are allowed to invest in gold funds like GLD provided your employers chooses to allow that. Mine does not. :-/ I have already written HR a letter asking them to change that policy, because it's a dumb-ass policy. I *do* have TIPS (FIPDX), and bought a bunch today. I'm 50/50 FSAGX/FIPDX now.

weasler7

Ugh. Gold and TIPS is all that is accessible for Fidelity 403b mutual funds??

MetricT

Until today, it was 85% FSAGX/15% FIPDX (TIPS fund) in my main retirement. The market is acting unusually odd today, even by recent standards, so I decided to de-risk, so I'm 50/50 now.

weasler7

I think TIPS is a decent bet. My only concern would be if a political loyalist is appointed to the BLS and juices the CPI numbers

Aureliamnissan

It is generally treasury bond holders, but [this explains it](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/) > The national debt is the amount of money the federal government has borrowed to cover the outstanding balance of expenses incurred over time. In a given fiscal year (FY), when spending (ex. money for roadways) exceeds revenue (ex. money from federal income tax), a budget deficit results. To pay for this deficit, the federal government borrows money by selling marketable securities such as Treasury bonds, bills, notes, floating rate notes, and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The national debt is the accumulation of this borrowing along with associated interest owed to the investors who purchased these securities. As the federal government experiences reoccurring deficits, which is common, the national debt grows.

Hopperkuh

Since you cannot buy Gold, you’d use **TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)**. They don’t move the same way, but they *do* protect you from inflation and dollar devaluation risk.

curious_investing

There must be some sort of bond option, however limited, in your 403b. You could check to see if your plan allows you to take any of your money out of your 403b (assuming you aren't yet 59.5) and move it to a Traditional IRA. Then you would have all the options you need. I've created a TIPS ladder that, along with a small pension and SS at 70, will give me the necessary income floor through 2055. While there is always the small risk of deflation, the TIPS assures that a portion of my investments will keep up with inflation. The TIPS ladder , and nominal bonds that will cover 3 to 5 years of equity withdrawls in a down market, have also eased my mind so that I can keep 70 to 75% in equities no matter what happens.

ikeepeatingandeating

I'm "lucky" that my retirement is coming up, so my planned increase in fixed income coincides with a lot of current fear of a market crash. My plan was always to go from 20% to 30% fixed, 2 years of expenses in cash and 5 years in bonds. My "flight to safety" was to pivot half of my bonds into TIPS, and half into intermediate duration bonds (vs. longer duration, say BND or similar). I'm a dumb, but I'm making a tiny bet that TIPS could compensate for inflation and/or dollar devaluation, while still being in line with my overall investment strategy. I'd love to have holes poked in this plan.

kiwimancy

Sure you would. If CPI increases in a one-off event, TIPS will increase in nominal value by that amount.

therealjerseytom

> I want to invest in something that's going to be inflation proof or hold it's value TIPS. They are bonds specifically out there to be adjusted for inflation, and maybe a small real return on top of that. Exactly what you're looking for.

Ashhh1991

This is the correct answer that matches EXACTLY what you asked for. Keep in mind that you may still need to pay taxes on your profit, which may make it so that you lost money. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) * **What they are:** Treasuries whose *principal value adjusts with inflation* (CPI). * **How it works:** The bond’s face value rises with inflation, and interest payments are based on the new amount. * **Pros:** Direct inflation protection; backed by the U.S. government. * **Cons:** Taxable inflation adjustments (even before maturity) unless held in a tax-advantaged account. Anything else (Gold, Bitcoin, Stocks etc) is not guaranteed to match inflation.

skilliard7

recession hedge - 20 or 30 year US bonds stagflation hedge - 5 year US TIPS Aiming for high returns without too much exposure to AI- REITs and some international stocks.

Key-Boat-7519

Use a bucket approach: lock in 10–15 years of withdrawals with safe ladders, keep the rest in a balanced stock sleeve for growth. Math check: $24k from $420k is \~5.7%; for a 15‑year runway that’s workable if you time-segment. I’d do 2 years in T‑Bills/HYSA (\~$48k), a 5‑year Treasury/TIPS ladder for years 3–7 (\~$120k), and years 8–15 in intermediate Treasuries or a small period‑certain SPIA/MYGA (\~$168k). Put the remaining \~20–25% in a broad stock index (US total market + some international). Spend from cash, roll the ladder annually, and only refill from stocks in good years; in bad years, refill from bonds. This cuts sequence‑of‑returns risk while still letting a growth sleeve compound. Mind the 457 tax angle (likely no early penalty, but withhold taxes), and revisit the mix yearly so RMD timing at 73 doesn’t blindside you. I’ve used Vanguard LifeStrategy Income for the growth sleeve and Schwab’s CD/Treasury ladder tools for years 1–10; added a small MYGA via [gainbridge.io](http://gainbridge.io) to lock a fixed rate for years 11–15. Bottom line: match the first decade-plus with safe ladders/MYGA and keep a \~40/60-ish stock/bond sleeve to grow the rest while pulling $24k.

theTrueLodge

That’s a fair point. The goal here isn’t to claim zero risk, but to balance sequence-of-return risk with inflation exposure over a 25-year horizon. A few clarifications: The 50% bond slice is diversified (not all intermediate duration), including TIPS and short-term positions that soften rate sensitivity. The equity portion (dividend + total-market) provides inflation-linked growth potential. “Minimal risk” here means relative to an all-stock or concentrated-stock position, not risk-free. Every allocation trades one type of risk (inflation) for another (volatility). For stronger inflation hedging, you could tilt 5–10% toward real assets or commodities (e.g. gold, energy, or REIT ETFs) ,but those come with higher volatility and correlation swings.

juugcatm

iShares has LDRT, LDRI, LDRC, LDRH which are 1-5 year maturity auto-ladder ETFs. They invest in treasuries, TIPS, inv grade, and high yield bonds respectively so you can choose your risk profile.

Specialist_Fig9458

TIPS and chill brother. Throw a few grand around in options for fun and entertainment

ninjagorilla

Look there are a couple options. There are some more recent papers that say that 100% equity portfolios aren’t inferior to a more stock or bond portfolio as long as you’re at at 4% withdrawal rate. That being said I agree with you on the tech bubble. I don’t know when but we are probably gonna have a pop sometime and it will probably come with a pretty big market drop and probably a recession. Crashed early in a retirement portfolio life cycle are extra bad compared to later ones. You didn’t mention in the context of your overall retirement savings what % nvidia is, but it still makes up 7.5% of the sp500 just by itself… so if you are all in on voo 7% of your worth is nvidia. What is your TOTAL exposure to nvidia: personal stocks +7% of sp500 holdings. If it’s more than 20% is definitely trim back to at least that number. I personally am selling my nvidia this week as well. Partly bc of bubble fears though the other thing concerning me is we’re starting to see a rising number of vendor financing deals between different ai companies and nvidia is part of several of them. Any stumble from any part of the chain will make the whole pyramid collapse even worse than before. To me it’s enough of a shock to my thesis I think I’m going to take my profits. But that’s just me. I haven’t seen apple as involved in many of these deals but same logic as far as portfolio % applies. As far as tax implications that’s a better question for an accountant, but typically you want to sell from tax advantaged accounts first and brokerages last. But that being said, I wouldn’t let the tax tail wag the dog on making smart decisions, jsut make sure you earmark some do the profits for taxes Also remeber it’s not all or nothing, you could for example sell 1/2, or 10% a month for thr next 12 months or whatever . As far as safer places to go I think TIPS bonds are about as safe as it gets if a bit boring. If you want to stay in equities brk b is about as safe as it gets. It might still fall in a bubble but it shouldn’t be as far.

theTrueLodge

I would look an ETF of some kind. Someone here recommended a world market one to hedge against volatility in the U.S. or any country. You’ll need to do your homework. Something like this might give you minimal risk - • 50% bonds (core intermediate-term, e.g. BND or AGG) • 10% short-term bonds or CDs (for near-term income stability) • 20% dividend/value stocks (e.g. SCHD or VYM) • 10% total-market or global equities (e.g. VTI or VT) • 5% inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) (e.g. SCHP or VTIP) • 5% cash or money-market fund (for immediate liquidity)

BuriedMystic

Vanguard Target Date 2025, VTTVX. It’s half stocks and half bonds/TIPS.

fiscal_fallacy

Gold and a stable income job. Maybe TIPS but gold seems simpler

Rom2814

Exactly - I built a TIPS ladder that will cover essential expenses between ages 57 and 67 (earliest I’d plan to take social security). That’s about half my bond allocation, the rest in BND and VGIT. From everything I’ve been reading, inflation can devour savings in retirement far more than a market downturn since it “forces” high withdrawal to maintain buying power - TIPS should take off some of the pressure in the case markets are not giving good returns and inflation is high.

gpunotpsu

They will if you buy TIPS.

xploeris

"All investment entails risk." Treasuries are pretty safe. Or if you're worried about inflation, there's Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Lower yield but you get some protection if inflation rises more than expected. I like SGOV and STIP respectively. VT will rise and fall with the global market, but it's one of the broadest stock ETFs in existence. Note that it's biased towards US holdings because we have a lot of massive publicly-traded companies; if you want a more balanced mix, add some VXUS or one of the other ex-US international funds. I don't like gold as an asset because it produces nothing and tends to be overbought by doomers and gold bugs IMO, but it's unlikely to fall far, and will probably go up. There's also all the usual recession hedges: utilities, energy, consumer goods, etc. Defense could be a good sector if you think economic/trade wars will lead to increased international aggression, and it tends to be propped up by public spending in any case. Holding cash equivalents makes sense if you think the market's going to downtrend or crash soon. If you think the market will hold steady or go up, better to lump sum now. If you're not sure and want the least possible risk of guessing wrong, DCA.

max_strength_placebo

Monte Carlo models are only as good as the data used for the simulations. IMO people treat Monte Carlo far too seriously. at best it's just an educated guess that may or may not play out as planned IRL. but to answer the question: >Are people underestimating inflation risk… or just ignoring it because it’s depressing? the last few decades, inflation was extremely low by historical standards so many people have forgotten to adjust for inflation. interest rates were also abnormally low by historical standards. Howard Marks wrote a 2022 memo on this topic, how very few people in the finance industry have experience with rising rates and relatively elevated inflation. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change elevated inflation also changes investing outcomes. lots of FIRE people are assuming the 2010-2012 bear market will generalize indefinitely into the future. But they're gonna be in for a shock, one way or another. They're simply not prepared for TIPS or REITs (or anything other than VTSAX) to be the best performing investment for 15 years. adjust for inflation and the S&P 500 was underwater about 1866 to 1992, and 2000 to 2014. https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data to quote John Hussman: >he total return of the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bonds from 1929-1950, 1968-1987, and the 22-year stretch from 1998 to 2020 (3/23/98-3/23/20: 5.27% vs 5.32% annually), among other sub-periods. That’s 62 years of the 96-year period since 1929 – nearly two-thirds of history. https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250720/

CharacterSpecific81

Best move here is to lock in a 5–7 year cash-flow runway (T-bills/HYSA for 1–2 years, then a TIPS + 3–5 year MYGA ladder) so you don’t have to sell equities during a bad decade. Concrete steps: \- Calculate essential spend minus Social Security/pension; that annual gap is what the ladder should cover. \- Keep MYGAs short and staggered; use ones with 10% free withdrawals so you have flexibility. Pair with a TIPS ladder maturing each year. \- Put TIPS in the IRA (avoids nasty tax issues), keep equities in the Roth for growth. Add I Bonds at TreasuryDirect if you can. \- Consider bumping real-asset diversifiers: either nudge gold to \~5–7% or use a low-cost managed futures fund for inflation shocks. \- Use a guardrail withdrawal rule (e.g., Guyton-Klinger) to auto-adjust spending and trigger equity-to-runway refills after up years. I’ve used Blueprint Income and Fidelity’s fixed income ladder tools for comparisons; [gainbridge.io](http://gainbridge.io) made actually buying a small MYGA slice straightforward. Give yourself that 5–7 year guaranteed runway so market drama doesn’t force equity sales.

WileyCoyote7

Yes, a common concern for readers. I am trying to give enough depth to see the whole picture, but not bog them down with specific funds/etfs they need to look up. Do you have suggestions on how to consolidate while still getting the info across? And yes, no doubt I need to pare down equities. No question there. The classic 60-40 seems (to me) to be a bit outdated in terms of the expected length of retirement; people are living longer. I think, and correct me if I’m wrong, the 60-40 was only expected to grow 2-3% per year when it was devised, for a 15 year (on average) expected retirement before death. I am hoping for twice that, knock on wood. Also, as I commented to another on this thread, I am concerned that since we have not had an extended stagflation market like the mid-70’s to early 80’s again (yet) to “test” the 60-40, as well as the Boglehead three-fund approach. I think the high inflation coupled with basically dead economic growth, huge (for then) debt/gdp, etc. would have made real returns difficult to say the least. The international fund in the Boglehead triad may do well (enough), but the domestic would have serious challenges and the bond as well with high inflation and interest rates leading to lower prices. Adding TIPS (which didn’t exist at the time), giving some extra weight for ultra-short (1-year) bonds, as well as gold/mining will (I think) help to modify the 60-40/three-bond approach to one that’ll fare decently. I don’t know…I need a stiff drink I think.

WillFromGainbridge

Your concern about a potential correction makes sense given where we are in the cycle, but I'd suggest looking at some guaranteed income products alongside what you're already doing. Being three years into retirement means you've got a decent runway to see how this plays out, but that stagflation scenario you mentioned could be rougher on traditional portfolios than people think. One thing that jumps out is your heavy equity weighting at 84%. While I get the inflation hedge logic, you might want to consider locking in some guaranteed rates now while they're still decent. Multi-year guaranteed annuities (MYGAs) are basically like CDs but often with better rates and more flexibility. Since you're already retired, you don't have the same early withdrawal penalty concerns if you're past 59½, and some products allow annual withdrawals if you need liquidity. The other piece is your bond allocation seems pretty light for someone worried about stagflation. TIPS make sense, but short-term treasuries might not keep up if we really do hit that scenario. Fixed annuities could give you that guaranteed income floor while still letting you keep most of your portfolio positioned for the correction you're expecting. Just something to think about as you rebalance - having multiple income streams becomes more valuable when markets get choppy. Your employer plan limitations are frustrating but pretty common. Most of the guaranteed product strategies would need to happen in your IRA or Roth anyway where you've got more control.

D74248

Do you believe that someone buying US Treasuries is not "investing"? How about a TIPS ladder?

trafficjet

You’re juggling a lot here, but keeping that heavy equit tilt while fearing a big correction and stagflation might just make stress levels spike when markets wobble. Also, holding gold acrss multiple accounts can add complexity without clear payoff, especially if rebalncing hasn’t been tackled yet. Have you thought about simplifying your allocation first to really nail down what’s working before layring on more tweaks like TIPS or extra gold?

Stock-Ad-4796

Look into short-term bond funds, corporate bond ETFs, or TIPS funds. You can also check out money market funds or high-yield savings for low risk with steady returns. Preferred stocks pay more but swing more too.

hammsfam

Diversify out of individual meme stocks you read about on reddit and into low cost broad market index funds (i.e. VT). And keep any money for a house in something like U.S. Treasuries (VGIT/VGSH depending on when you plan on buying) and/or TIPS if unexpectedly high inflation would put the target out of reach (VTIP).

Extra-Avocado8967

Solid mix overall ,adding a bit of TIPS or short-term bonds for inflation protection makes sense, just keep equity exposure balanced with your withdrawal needs.

WealthVenue

looks like a receipe for disasters, if you are new to investing, start slow and buy some Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the rest in a TIPS ETF (Treasury Rates that are Inflation Protected), allocation could be 50/50 in each ETF. Personally a 4 corner portfolio, MidCap Value/Growth + S&P 500 + Nasdaq 100 + SmallCap Value/Growth for a total of 6 ETFs

TrickyBanana5044

I mean if its a viable option for you I wouldn't knock it. There is a value to the mental peace of having a pile of cash to avoid having to withdraw during a market downturn. Most people need to keep as much capital growing as possible so finding that balance can be tough. A reasonable approach would be 1-2 years in something like a HYSA, then the other 3-4 in something like short term bonds or other less volatile short term options. TIPS perhaps so you're not losing value to inflation. Personally, I am going for 3 years but I have baked a pretty wide margin into "number" for retirement anyways.

D74248

Do you have an asset allocation plan? If not, I suggest that you work one out and use that as a starting point. Don't make emotional decisions and don't make big moves. But at the same time don't be blind to risks. We are all in different places, but using myself as an example I have, over the past year, moved from a 60/40 portfolio to 40/60. I have increased my TIPS holdings (the bonds themselves, will hold to maturity), increased international holdings within the stock allocation and taken a value tilt in the US stocks. But most importantly, always be prepared to weather a long and deep market correction. If you cannot then that is a red flag to change your asset allocation into something that can.

skilliard7

- GDP growth projections are 1.5-2% by most economists for 2025 and 2026. 2024 was 2.8%. - CPI forecast for the next 30 years is 2.25% based on the spread between 30 year bonds and 30 year TIPS With 30 year TIPS, you get 2.516% AFTER inflation. So GDP growth would need to exceed 2.5% for fixed income to grow slower than the economy.

Ninja-Panda86

If we're entering into stagflation does it behooves us to do iBonds or TIPS or what have you?

skilliard7

It's not even currency debasement/inflation. M2 is basically the same as it was 3 years ago, and inflation is only about 3% currently. It's not inflation fears either, as the spread between 30 year TIPS and 30 year bonds is only about 2.3% - long term inflation expectations are still very low It's more that fears about currency debasement has driven a speculative bubble in gold.

D74248

> never too late to invest The question is “how”. 30 year TIPS ladder, QQQ or some plan in between?

Stitch426

Old quora post explains it nicely: https://www.quora.com/How-probable-is-it-that-the-S-P500-and-the-general-stock-market-will-provide-the-7-8-annual-historical-return-also-in-the-decades-to-come-What-are-the-underlying-assumptions-Infinite-Growth-in-productivity-and Simply put, past performance does not predict future results. 7-8% is average. Some years the average will be blown out of the park. Some years it won’t. For your planning, you can go with the average or you can cook up your own numbers. Anything over 7-8% is a bonus and helps soothe out the stress when a year comes in below that. That quora post still describes the market we are in pretty much. It won’t always be like that. You missed out on a chance to potentially make a lot of money on the stock market. Who knows what decisions you would have made back then. Who knows if you’d have held through thick and thin this whole time. Don’t kick yourself over something like that. Just invest and learn more about the economy, the market, and what variables affect stock and ETF performance. Research about why people flee to safety towards precious metals, bonds, treasuries, dividends, and TIPS. Heck, even this year was a flight towards international stocks and ETFs. Wouldn’t be surprised if there was more invested into foreign currencies as well. Some people decided to sit on cash, use a high yield savings account, use a money market account, or they opened up CDs. Just research and learn more so you can make well-informed decisions about your portfolio and diversifying your risk. Every person’s risk tolerance is different and your retirement horizon and short term goals for the money will probably be different as well. There are a lot of ways to make money. There are a lot of ways to save money too. You’re two years behind where you want to be, and that’s okay. There are people in their 60s who still haven’t saved a penny for retirement. Remember you are fortunate to have though money to invest. Some college kids just scrape up $5 a week or something like that. It’ll be okay in the end if you stay diligent and well informed about all your options. Good luck OP.

WealthVenue

I would start by buying SPY and QQQ, but not when they are reaching new high, like it is now. The best way to buy those is when the market is crashing. If you start buying when the market is reaching the top, you are very likely to lose money, and usually what that means is you will ignore your holdings for months to come to avoid seeing the blood bath. Then it's better to wait. Maybe TIPS which is the US Treasury Short Term Inflation Protected while waiting for a small correction in the market, like 10% to 20%. But don't buy NVIDIA or TELSA or whatever is the stock du jour, or worse, the hot meme stock du jour. This is a sure bet to lose money.

Ok_Reveal_6216

Why is everyone switching to TIPS and short duration today? market acting like hyperinflation is coming

D74248

You are very exposed to sequence of returns risk. One way to mitigate it is with a [Bond Tent](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-tent-help-retirement-strategy-160326788.html) I am 5 years into retirement. My preference for bonds is actual bonds in the form of Treasuries, both nominal and TIPS, and defined maturity bond ETFs. All in ladders, all held to maturity/liquidation. Of course we are all in a different place.

Anon-Function6635

Partly depends on your reason for investing. If you're young and looking for the next new thing I'm sure there are a ton of flash latest-way-to-get-rich-fast investment sites. If you're older and are trying to not get screwed by the next big drop (that's me) you could read stuff like bloomberg ($$$). Seeking alpha's great for the comments but I haven't been back since they started charging. Marketwatch seems to be a lot like headlines that will piss you off enough to click on (ie clickbait) or old folks retirement info. If you're actually looking into the details of a stock, etf or cef to do comparisons morningstar ($$$) is good - it's the source for a lot of other investment sites. I just don't read the articles on morningstar. The other consideration, as mentioned in another comment below, is 'can you actually make an informed decision and act before the market has already moved?' I don't think so. I have also found the market doesn't move the way it should, even when your research is sound. Way back before AI I invested in TSMC when I read that their entire production runs had been sold even before construction on new plants had begun. How could that go wrong? Waited for years, nothing happened to the stock and I moved on. I was in the market when interest rates wer near zero, read that rates are going up and inflation will happen so I bought an etf that was supposed to be in TIPS. Inflation hit and the etf did absolutely nothing. The moral of my stories is that you can read a lot, have a specific buy based on your own conclustion, be proven right and still lose.