TIPS

basementdweller263

For stagflation, I’d focus less on finding the perfect “hedge” and more on building something resilient and avoiding two common mistakes: parking too much in cash while inflation stays hot, or overloading on rate sensitive assets. A balanced approach usually looks like broad diversification plus a modest inflation aware sleeve (for example TIPS, commodities or energy exposure) and disciplined rebalancing, rather than trying to time a six month window. On REITs, they can hold up in some inflationary environments, but they are still very rate sensitive, so I’d treat them as part of the mix, not the hedge itself. What’s your timeframe and what’s this money for (mortgage recast timing vs long term investing)?

pigglesthepup

Consumer staples are always good as defensive stocks. But they're still equities. When equities crash, consumer staples will take a hit. They just rebound faster than the rest of the market. The better recession hedges are Treasuries: VTIP/STIP: short-term TIPS. Good for inflationary shocks -- like right now. SPTI/VGIT: intermediate Treasuries. Neutral ballast. SPTL/VGLT/TLT/EDV: deflationary shock absorbers. 2008 + 2020 style crisis hedges.

D74248

In hindsight, the only thing that "worked" was rolling short term treasuries. Sort of. And then came the magic day, also only known in hindsight, when you wanted to go long. Oh, to have snagged some of those December 1981 30 years that were over 14%! Inflation was high, so when looking at stock market returns for that era you want to be careful and look at real returns, not nominal. There was a spike in gold, but you had to time that one right. So realistically, when in the middle of it, nothing worked. It sucked to be invested. It sucked to be working for a living. It sucked to be feeding a family. There were three recessions between 1973 and 1982. Inflation was high. Interest rates spiked, with the 30 year fixed rate mortgage peaking at 18% in 1981. However we did not have TIPS, and they might be effective if we really do go into stagflation. But you have to trust the Trump Bureau of Labor Statistics. If I really wanted to collect downvotes in this sub I would suggest selling VOO and laddering TIPS. Which is what I have done to a degree -- moved my equity from broad index funds to funds with a value tilt, increased my bond allocation and strengthened my bond rungs between 2029 and 2034 with additional TIPS. Time will tell. What is scary is that the 1970s were marked by two things. Disruption in oil supplies and a President [Nixon] who had a puppet [Burns] as Fed Chairman. History may not repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.

h2f

By holding to maturity you are losing an opportunity to invest in something that would give you a higher return. That however, is not a loss but an opportunity cost. Yes, I could time it wrong and make 2% instead of 3% but that's a bit like saying if I invested in a CD at 4% a year ago I lost the opportunity to buy NVDA and make a whole lot more. The lost opportunity is not the same as a real loss. Would you say that I lost money by buying a CD instead of NVDA? Probably not because NVDA is riskier than a CD. Prices are set based on expectation of risk. The rate for TIPS today can be different from the rate for TIPS tomorrow. If we believe that the market is efficient (which for the bond market is a reasonable approximation of reality IMO) If the rate goes up tomorrow, it's because something has changed (inflation expectations, a war, etc.) The rate is set based on expectations at the time of the transaction and will go up if things in the world made the TIPS riskier.

50CalRound

Energy, Fertilizer, TIPS. Watching Gold and XAR closely.

Tanuja_Aggarwal

Hedging stagflation requires assets that outpace rising costs while resisting low growth. Commodities (oil, gold) and TIPS offer inflation protection. Real estate provides rental income and appreciation. Focus on defensive stocks with high pricing power and avoid high-growth tech.

h2f

If I buy 5 year TIPS at 2%, I'll beat inflation by 2% a year for the next 5 years. Let's assume that inflation is 0% to make things simple. If tomorrow TIPS rates change to 3% I have lost the opportunity to make 3% instead of 2% and I won't be able to sell early and still make 2%. In fact, if I need to sell early I will have lost money. However, if I can hold to maturity I know that I'll make that 2%; which is worth a lot.

helpful_stranger

I see there's some confusion in the replies regarding on how bonds and TIPS work, so thought I'd offer some clarification. 1. "If you hold the bonds until maturity you don’t lose money." True in that if you hold to maturity you get your principal back plus interest. However, you still technically lose money if rates go up (similar concept to your cash technically losing value if inflation goes up). Let's look at a quick example. Say you buy a 1 year bond today paying 100% interest for $100. At the end of the year you get back $100 + $100 = $200. Now let's say tomorrow rates jump to 300%. Your bond is now worth $50 on the secondary market. Why is that? Well someone buying a bond at 300% interest will have 4x their money at the end of the year. Since your bond pays $200, then for them to buy your bond vs. what's offered on the open market, it would have to be at $50. Along the same vein, if you had waited a day, you would have $400 instead of $200 at the end of the year, so you've effectively lost $200 (of year end money). 2. "Rates going up is bad for TIPS". Also technically true, assuming all else remains equal. TIPS value is a reflection of both its coupon rate and inflation. In essence this is real rates (coupon - inflation). Therefore if real rates went up (coupon rate goes up faster than inflation), then TIPS will lose value, but if real rates go down (inflation increases faster than coupon rate) then TIPS will actually increase in value. Another way to look at it is if the Fed is proactive in raising rates to combat inflation, that is bad for TIPS, but if the Fed if slow to raise rates and lets inflation run wild for a bit, then that is good for TIPS.

D74248

TIPS. Buy the actual bonds, hold to maturity. TIPS are very sensitive to interest rate changes, so they are a big boy game other than the simple buy/hold to maturity strategy. Or roll short term Treasuries.

D74248

Those are I bonds. TIPS are a very different thing. [Here](https://treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/)

Dstein99

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Currently a 5 year TIPS is yielding 1.14% plus they adjust this rate for CPI inflation so you would be guaranteed 1.14%/year net of inflation for 5 years. The normal 5 year treasury yields 3.87% so theoretically the TIPS are pricing in 2.73% inflation per year over the next 5 years. If you think that inflation will be higher than this especially if we go to a stagflationary environment it could make sense to wait it out and guarantee a return net of inflation.

Dear-Original-1024

Same thing happened in 2022. TIPS aren't bad, but SGOV is better in this scenario.

Dstein99

I said TIPS not a TIPS etf. If you hold the bonds until maturity you don’t lose money.

No-Dust-1722

Can you elaborate on that? I hadn’t heard of TIPS before your parent comment but they sound interesting

Defiant-Opposite-501

Monetary metals, TIPS. Historically "real" assets. I have some concerns about domestic real estate. The carrying costs of real property in the United States between property taxes and insurance has become astronomical. You're already seeing rents decreasing, before a sigificant break in property values. The end result is that ROI is going to drop. My personal portfolio doesn't hold any debt instruments with a maturity date greater than 5 years from now.

Dstein99

TIPS

sleepystockmarket

The methodology debate actually has a really interesting history. The 1996 Boskin Commission was a turning point — they concluded the CPI was overstating inflation by about 1.1 percentage points annually and recommended changes to how substitution and quality adjustments were calculated. The BLS implemented most of those changes over the following years. What's fascinating is that governments in the 1970s faced the opposite political pressure — understating inflation would have meant higher real interest rates and smaller cost-of-living adjustments to entitlements. The Reagan era actually had strong incentives to show inflation coming down, while today the incentive arguably runs the other way (lower reported inflation = lower debt service costs on TIPS-linked bonds). Shrinkflation is real and genuinely hard to capture — the 1980s candy bar problem has been debated by economists for decades. Do you think the issue is more about political capture of the statistical agencies, or just genuine methodological disagreement about what a "cost of living" index should actually measure?

InevitableAd2436

The only reason this pumps every morning is because of automated 401k buys Just wait until boomers start moving out of their target date funds and into inflation protected securities Just the TIPS

Proof-Anteater5114

I honestly think you're so we'll set up this young! Maybe consider the advice for the individual stocks. With the ETFs you're already pretty diversified, so maybe remaining invested in those for longer is better. With the bonds, have a look at treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) (US gov bonds that are indexed to inflation).

Unhappy_Finding_874

yeah the fed trap is the part that worries me most tbh. normally when growth slows they cut rates, but if inflation is still sticky they cant really do that without risking making it worse. so they just sit there and wait, which isnt great for equities either. the oil shock on top of existing supply chain issues from tariffs is pretty much the worst timing. energy costs filter into everything - shipping, manufacturing, food. takes a few months to show up fully in CPI but when it does... historically stagflation environments favor commodities and real assets over growth stocks. TIPS too if ur worried about inflation persistence. not saying go all in on gold but the 70s playbook is worth revisiting rn imo

mod_cat

Given current market conditions, and my portfolio and spending, I target 5 years of expenses (that are not covered by income). So for example if SS covered half my spending I would target 5 * 1/2 my spending (the amount not covered each year) so 2 1/2 years. I don't find bonds attractive (and haven't for years) so I have little and what I have are TIPS (short term and long term) and series I bonds (inflation protected). There is no perfect way to do it. And I adjust somewhat based on market conditions (not drastically but slowly modifying over years). If bond yields were much higher and everything else remained the same I might buy more bonds (but nothing has attracted me in this way for certainly over 10 years and likely many more). If the stock market was much much lower (say 40% or 50%, not just 20% from these levels) in a similar economic conditions I might be more reluctant to have so much in cash (and so decrease the years of cash held). I am perfectly willing to lose a bit of upside (I am about 70% invested in stocks now so I gain a fair amount if things go up) to have cash available and not have to worry about being forced to sell stocks at low levels. I do also have some dividend focused stocks where I compare them more to bonds than stocks. I know this is not normal. And I have only really experimented with this for the last 3 to 5 years (with increasing amounts - I am gaining confidence I like this approach for me). They not only provide some bond like traits, income (to some extent, I know there are issues with saying they are real substitutes) but they also move to some stocks that are less volatile than most of my stock portfolio. Also I have plenty of funds given my low spending ways. If I weren't in as good a position I might have to take more risk, but I don't feel I have to now. I also have more than 5 years now in cash and cash equivalents, I am thinking of that as a lower limit for now.

brintoul

TIPS?

tritisan

I'm about to do the same (sell off most equities). Which types of bonds are the safest (bonus points for inflation hedge)? Honestly, the bond market makes little to no sense to me. For example, I invested in TIPS about a decade ago. Then we had high inflation a few years ago, and their value fricken **dropped**. What the hell?

stonescape

I don't totally disagree, but I think there is value repositioning when you see macro conditions changing. Bought silver low a few years ago, gold last year, and oil a few months ago, all of which were fantastic plays for my portfolio. Sold my silver a month ago, gold now and looking to trim oil soon, looking for another place to park about 15% of my portfolio while I let it sit in short term bonds in the interim. I am thinking TIPS may be a good spot now

illz757

I knew it was coming and didn’t do enough about it - I put 15 % of my portfolio into TIPS calls but I feel like I should have full ported it.

tinydisaster

I mean, you can get TIPS if you believe the inflation numbers out of BLS.

Firm_Instruction_775

First decide what your goals are for your investment and what feels comfortable to you. Maybe that’s VOO, SCHD, a combo or something else. DCA in. As another commenter said, it might be worth it for you to have a conversation with an advisor. At 65, you don’t need to be aggressive if you’re not comfortable with that. If you’re just looking for higher yields maybe TIPS or CD ladder is better for you. Spend sometime putting together your plan. It is going to be OK. You missed some gains, you didn’t gamble your money away. It not going to hurt you substantially.

Bubbly-Town-7010

I suppose knowing the whole story would give me a better picture. I see from other comments your between jobs. If you have large expenses, such as children, I could see the reasoning. Even then I think the total portfolio amount would give a better idea. For example, if you have 10k cash in a 20k portfolio, that would make sense. However, 100k in cash in a 200k portfolio I think is almost a dangerous amount of cash sitting around. Look how fast the dollar has lost value the last 5-6 years. 100k in 2020 is now worth about 150k today. Even Warren buffet with his cash pile holds his money via mostly short term treasuries. There’s also TIPS or (treasury inflation-protected securities) that can guarantee yield that beats inflation. I understand you’re worried about risk and uncertainty but it’s not like cash just sitting there is without risk.

TreGet234

I genuinely rather hold gold due to inflation and debasement. Though 5% yield with the prospect of further rate cuts boosting the bond by another easy 10+% is very alluring. But (long regular) bonds are a bet against inflation. Been thinking TIPS bonds but inflation is super prices in with those.

ziggy029

It largely also depends on how heavily you need to lean into your retirement portfolio for income. If you need 4-5% a year, yeah, you need some caution but also need to take enough risk to generate sufficient returns to avoid depletion and avoid getting mauled by inflation. A bond tent (I like a TIPS ladder for this) for the first few years of retirement plus 70-80% equities for the more distant years is what I tend to like here. If you are taking only 1% of it for retirement income, realistically you can be as aggressive or as cautious as you feel comfortable.

therealjerseytom

When you're depending on your investments for income, you need to draw from them consistently at any time. You can of course do this with any asset class, but if you're entirely in any one of them you have no options and may be forced to unload positions when they're oversold during some inevitable downturn. That can hurt your future finances. So it's quite reasonable to identify different scenarios and how you can hedge against them and not be forced to sell certain positions at an inopportune time. Cash equivalents can hedge a liquidity crisis. Long treasuries can hedge a flight-to-safety scenario. TIPS can be part of protecting against stagflation. Global equities cover the cyclical nature of US and ex-US markets. Managed futures can add an asset class with low correlation to both stocks and bonds. Precious metals and commodities can have a place. The more bases you cover, the more bulletproof you are in weathering whatever storm comes. With that said, there are scenarios where someone can be *less* conservative later in life, depending on portfolio size, passive income streams (pensions, social security, rental property), etc. Like if someone's expenses are covered by passive income, they can have an investment portfolio geared for long-term growth to leave to heirs or charitable causes. Or if your portfolio size is very large relative to your expenses, the effects of market downturns might be negligible and you could just ride it out.

Prestigious-Tiger697

Most people just aren’t exposed to it so it’s a big mystery. I didn’t really know much about it until my late 20’s when I got a technical support job at a company that made software for the financial industry. We went through a financial “boot camp” and learned about the difference between fixed income vs equities, the SEC and some common rules, mortgage backed securities, omnibus trades, asset classes, TIPS, currency FX rates, arbitrage trading, etc. I think they should have that class in high school

watch-nerd

I have a crap ton of TIPS and they're up like morning wood.

D74248

> Except the NASDAQ is more volatile, on the long run you make a better return The NASDAQ took 15 years to recover from the dotcom bubble. 17 years on an inflation adjusted basis. Consider that from the perspective from someone who was 35 in 2000. For them, the NASDAQ did not beat a simple TIPS bond until they were in their mid 50s -- a point where they would be starting to restructure their portfolio for income during retirement. We talk about market returns using the broad brush of history, but reality is that our individual investing world is much more granular.

Mammoth-Length-9163

TIPS

skymagic

NO TIPS! >!on tax 🥹!<

EveryPassage

You can buy a 20 year TIPS (treasury inflation protected security) Currently they have a real yield (on top of inflation) of about 2.0-2.5%.

PashasMom

I love the idea overall of the target maturity bond funds. I'm a little more comfortable with the iShares iBonds and Invesco BulletShares funds just because they have been around longer and have a wider variety of types of bonds to pick from (TIPS, treasuries, high yield, etc.).

teamyg

Today's 30-year TIPS auction; who would bid if you know BLS been cooking inflation data?

quovest

The history here is a bit more mixed than people think. Lump sum tends to win most of the time, around 65 to 70 percent across long samples. But when valuations get stretched, like when Shiller PE is above 35, DCA starts to look a lot more competitive. To me, the real question is not lump sum versus DCA. It is what your cash is doing while you wait. If you can earn 4.5 to 5 percent in a money market fund or short term Treasuries while you DCA over 6 to 12 months, you are not just sitting on idle cash. You are getting a solid low risk return while you reduce the chance of buying right before a drawdown. The simple framework I like is this. Compare the S&P earnings yield, which is basically 1 divided by the PE, to the risk free rate. When that gap gets tight, the math starts to favor patience. Not market timing. Just a systematic way to deploy capital. I would also keep an eye on inflation expectations through TIPS and on forward earnings. The market is assuming earnings keep growing. If that growth disappoints, that is the main risk you are managing.

D74248

This is just a personal opinion. I would be wary of the TIPS bond fund. TIPS are great, but holding the actual bonds to maturity is different from holding an open-ended TIPS fund. The problem is that TIPS are extremely sensitive to interest rate changes. This is not a problem when holding the bond to maturity (though it will bounce around a lot until it gets there), while holding the fund leaves you constantly exposed to interest rate risk. I suggest considering a bit of a value tilt in the equity holdings and more international. Finally, campaign for a "brokerage window" in that 401k. That is the best way to get to things like TIPS, nominal Treasuries, and fixed income in general since you could then build a ladder and hold them to maturity.

TreGet234

Been looking at bonds trying to figure out if they make sense in any way shape or form short and long term. They do not. The market rate fluctuations if you wanna sell the bond prematurely are so unpredictable that the chance to lose money is fairly high even after holding for years. You could buy and cycle 2-3 year bonds to lock down the interest if rate cuts are expected (long yields are so unpredictable right now, they may rise even when the fed cuts rates unless they ramp up QE). This reduces duration risk but still gives upside if a panic forces sudden rate cuts. Even if rates get hiked (for example due to inflation) you lose out a little bit but not too much. That you can just hedge with an overnight money market fund or hysa. Depends what you think is more likely. Overall i think i prefer the risk profile of longer dated TIPS right now. Longer dated bonds are kinda shit because long yields won't come down without QE or a massive crash. If you expect QE just buy gold instead. If you expect a crash followed by collapsing rates (the ideal fantasy case) then do build a bond position. I feel like TIPS are a weirdly good middle ground.

Ancient-Cookie-9402

If I were 65 and rolling over $1M, I wouldn’t think in terms of “starting from zero.” I’d think in terms of protecting the life this money needs to support At this stage, sequence-of-returns risk matters more than beating the market. A heavy equity bet especially driven by fear about the dollar can backfire if volatility hits early in retirement Personally, I’d want: • A core of high-quality, low-cost broad U.S. exposure • Meaningful allocation to Treasuries or high-grade bonds for stability • Some inflation protection (TIPS or a modest real asset allocation) Not because the U.S. is flawless — but because retirement is about durability, not macro predictions The biggest mistake I see people make at 65 isn’t being too conservative. It’s reacting to fear and overcorrecting Control is important. Just make sure the structure matches the stage of life you’re in

Xafniko

If I were 65 with a $1M rollover and aiming conservative, I’d think less about ‘beating the market’ and more about protecting purchasing power + steady income. Something simple like: * \~40–50% high-quality global equity ETF (broad diversification outside just the U.S.) * \~30–40% short/intermediate-term bonds or Treasuries for stability and income * \~10–15% inflation hedges (TIPS, commodities, maybe a small gold allocation) * Keep 1–2 years of expenses in cash equivalents so you’re never forced to sell in a downturn The key at that stage isn’t chasing returns — it’s building a portfolio that can pay you reliably while surviving inflation, currency swings, and market volatility.

HomeBarista

Inflation, unfavorable taxation (QDI is capital gains, not marginal tax rate), marginal value of additional returns (e.g. for estate planning, lifestyle, etc.), and probably ongoing high income. Fun fact to consider: the S&P 500 has never paid less than 1% in dividends yearly throughout its existence (usually much more) in addition to appreciating handsomely. And it somewhat adjusts for inflation. 1% on $20M is $200,000 gross, or close to $170k after federal taxes (capital gains, assuming this is the only income and all QDI). Still, with that kind of money, it's probably better to consider portfolios with significant derisking components for various scenarios and black swan events. Probably something including stocks, real estate, TIPS, gold, etc. and with strong geographic diversification.

Ancient-Swordfish292

I'd do a TIPS ladder at that point.

D74248

This sub has a depressingly narrow view of investing. Serious money does not just look at the S&P 500 over the past 15 years, they have a broader view and don't want to be inconvenienced by the next 2008, 2000, 1987, 1968, 1937, 1929....... The bond market is larger than the stock market, which is something to keep in mind when reading these replies. People who "have enough", and I don't mean big money, put money into Treasuries all the time, but not the 30 year. They build bond ladders, often with TIPS.

caprividog

Love it when Nancy Davis was asked what's the right move, and she says, "Just the TIPS."

bladeomatic

The classic 3 fund/etf blend is fine for most who want to set it and forget it (S&P, International, Bonds). This gives you diversification and levers you can lower or raise as conditions change. Remember, that \~30% of all stock value is outside the US, so don't short change your allocations ex-US, just b/c of the past run ups in S&P. Plus the dollar woes are also helped with Intl investments. Me, I'm a geek and search out the \*best\* funds and holdings vs. just rubber-stamping the low fee/mediocre returns that Vanguard is offering. I'm in my 60's and have a 45/45/10 blend (was 70/25/5 a few years ago). Recent moves have been to slowly shift some large growth towards large value with dividends, and reduce some tech holdings. For instance, less MSFT and AMZN, and more T and UL. I'm also adding more diversity within my bonds (TIPS, Corporates, Munis, Intl, Emerging, Treasuries), and making sure my powder (cash) is dry in a Quontic Money Market account and some T-Bills. The market has had bright spots, but it's wobbly. Tariffs being levied and then rescinded via the whimsy/spite of one unpredictable man continues to be a flashing red sign of caution. There's also a lot of froth re AI that \*may\* turn into earnings, but certainly feels like the tech bubble of 2001. Who knows if there will be some small corrections or large dips coming in 2026, but the Warren Buffets of the world who are building war chests of cash, may have some buying opportunities of fantastic companies at discounted pricing.

Kanolie

Ya but no one is saying to invest in dollars. If you want strategies to have a stable long term value there are already easy ways to do that like TIPS.

dritu_

If you buy a short term TIPS at a fair real yield and hold to maturity, they would beat CPI, definitionally. If buying and holding for 1 or 2 years, I'm not sure there's that much point to targeting TIPS over traditional treasuries. The risks are when: * you don't hold to maturity * you buy a TIPS fund instead of individual TIPS, which are subject to price volatility * CPI doesn't reflect real inflation * opportunity cost: traditional treasuries outperform if CPI comes in lower than expected https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/tips-and-inflation-what-to-know-now

EveryPassage

Why would they fail to beat inflation over the short term if you buy a TIPS maturing in 2 years with a real rate?

dritu_

TIPS are intended for long term holding. They can fail to beat inflation over short time horizons.

D74248

>Do you have any bond exposure? The fixed income is split is between three silos. One is a bond ladder that runs through 2034, using a mix of defined maturity corporate bond ETFs, nominal Treasuries and, towards the end, TIPS. This will cover our withdraws during that period. Our planning includes a bond tent, and this ladder winding down will be the machinery to make that happen. Second is a sleeve given to Schwab/Wasmer Schroeder to manage. That was fairly recent, but so far they are doing OK with it. Third is what I call "greed corner" (my wife prefers "cash generators"). A modest allocation to preferred stocks and Closed End Funds (CEF). Small enough that if it blows up our world does not end, but large enough to generate income that takes some pressure off the rest of the portfolio. >...the guys I used to seek guidance from have mostly aged out. They’re still rich, have just been watching them make late age mistakes and think they should hang it up. We talk about investing risks, but cognitive decline gets ignored. And it is indeed the elephant in the room. I plan to give it over to professional management by age 75. It is not about dementia, is just losing the edge as we age, and financial management seems to be one of the first things to fade. >Guys get so focused on never paying taxes.... It is a mistake to look at a portfolio's value and not mentally subtract the taxes, but it seems to be a mistake that most people make. Then they become irrational/angry when having to deal with them. I have spent time in countries with low and even no taxes -- and with just a few exceptions they are miserable places to live. So, I pay my taxes and I don't bitch about it.

WhyKeepBuyingSlop

I’ve kept a pretty strict portfolio for a few years that ive rebalanced around: US Equity International Equity Core Bonds T-Bills / Cash Equivalents Inflation Protection (TIPS) High risk (crypto single investments) Rebalance based on market conditions throughout the year.

Dal-Thrax

Depends. The original 1929 crash was about 30%. If that happens, the sun rises and we continue on. The problem was that the original crash caused a meltdown of the system that had been circulating gold around the world. That caused the US currency to melt up (deflation) and a number of banks to fail. The follow on lead to stocks being down about 85%. Full recovery if the index did not happen until the 1950s (though actual recovery might have been earlier, IBM hit itself kicked out of the DOW for a number of reasons, including selling early databasing systems to the Nazis to round up Jews). If Great Depression round 2 happens the only thing that does not die is sovereign bonds and even some of those sovereigns might not be around at the end of it. In this situation gold is not a certain safe haven. During the depression the price of gold DROPPED when the US went off the gold standard, as the US was providing price supports. Nothing does well. Paid off house and investment in TIPS might cause the least day to day disruption (though TIPs in the depression would have suffered major losses due to deflation). That said there were some Germans who had their currency crash, there homes burned out, then the Soviets take anything that was left. At that point the question becomes who in the family died, not how the investments did.

EveryPassage

TIPS are exactly that.... And you don't always lose out to inflation with short duration bonds. For the past couple of years they have exceeded inflation.

EveryPassage

I'd go with VBIL (lower fee version of SGOV) for short duration. Cheap and flexible. IBIE is also a decent option, October 2028 TIPS (inflation linked bonds).

Feldii

If you truly want a safe haven TIPS is good. You’re guaranteed inflation plus a bit extra. It’s not going to make you rich though.

TrenVantage

TIPS

Delicious-Plastic-44

I would buy TIPS for the amount you need from this sleeve each year. If permanent position I would invest in both short term TIPS etf and Treasury etf. Assuming us investor.

BuffersAndBeta

The only truly risk free rate is the SOFR to 30 day t-bills (and similar instruments), don't believe / accept anyone who tells you otherwise. However, like you pointed out, the 10 year is actually "as close to risk free as possible" on a NOMINAL basis. Developed countries usually pay their obligations even if it leads to inflation internally. If you need something for _nominal_ returns, I think the 10 year is perfectly fine to compare your portfolio to. Just not real returns. In the US, you have TIPS which could serve as a benchmark - but I'm one of those people who thinks TIPS are useful but cynical about the calculations they use. IMO, a better option _might_ actually be the "All Weather Portfolio" - or more generally - a basket of various asset classes around the globe.

Timbo1994

I am young and in the UK but have put 10% in long-dated index-linked government bonds (equivalent of TIPS)

HammyMugats

The most amazing thing in the world would be Powell to announce on his way out that he is switching his entire portfolio into 5 year TIPS.

Imaginary_Disk7227

Not an expert, but TIPS is a great way to secure wealth in this time, but it's on USD so 🥴

Inevitable_Pin7755

Hard to hedge every macro scenario cleanly, especially when a lot of this is already priced in. Dollar weakness does not automatically mean bonds or oil collapse, it depends on growth vs inflation vs policy response. Historically people spread risk rather than rotate everything. Some combo of short duration treasuries, TIPS, non US equities, and boring cash equivalents tends to survive most regimes. Energy can still hold up if inflation sticks, even with a softer dollar. If you are already heavy tech and crypto, the bigger risk might be overreacting to a single narrative. Diversifying slowly usually beats trying to time the macro pivot.

MrMoogie

Yeah I’m considering TIPS but the yield is shitty and going down in the short term. If it’s looking like rates have bottomed I may buy some. Agreed about REITS, choose wisely but they will continue to pay, if you choose something with a long enough average lease. O would be perfect as a 10% allocation. SCHD is probably a good bet, a quality ETF. One of the ETF’s focussed on FCF (COWZ etc) and VGK. I’m also holding plenty of SGOV, JAAA, a bit of PCN, some emerging market government bonds. If tariffs are bazookered, taxes will need to go up and I’m hoping inflation will be DoA. We can all dream.

giraloco

Finally someone here is saying something useful. I'm afraid REITs may crash with high interest rates so make sure they don't have too much leverage and are the one that will survive the apocalypse. Stocks that produce essential products and services and have solid balance sheets are the most likely to preserve value and strive after competitors fail. Buying gold now seems crazy. It's pure speculation that will reverse to the mean. I buy short term bonds including international treasuries from developed countries. Also TIPS. I also bought a place to live, just in case.

eyeap

TIPS sounds better than each of those

eyeap

So, where are you putting money? TIPS?

InarasMal

Imagine buying TIPS bonds to keep up with inflation lol, lmao even

jarMburger

TIPS also subject to interest rate risk as well. They’re good for unexpected inflation risk (as defined by CPI) but their price will go down if interest rate rises.

mattcannon2

Unless they are CPI-linked TIPS

EvolvingDior

Depends on the maturity of those debts and how much is in TIPS.

Extension-Temporary4

bonds, bond funds, TIPS, USFR. Depending on risk tolerance, some high yield  funds like jepq, JEPI, sphy . . . Get an advisor. But a fixed income bond ladder is probably your safest bet — it won’t generate 5% but it will get you part of the way there. Mix in some dividends and diversity, you have a decent upside with a known/limited downside. 

hiphopanonomos

TIPS max profits would require the gov to tell the truth about inflation

pmotiveforce

It's hilarious bulls rant about money printer and US equities. Your best case scenario seems to be matching or slightly beating inflation in that scenario. Uhh. Congrats? I guess? Maybe just buy TIPS though you boomer ass?

escapefromelba

Personally, don’t love how overweight SP500 has become with tech sector particularly given really only handful of companies driving it.  I don’t think it’s diversified enough plus you lose out on some great companies simply because they aren’t U.S. based and international has been significantly undervalued for awhile now.  I have SP500 plus extended market for mid and small caps as well as a total international index fund.  So effectively total world but at different ratio (plus bond/TIPS fund).

favsep

Major revolution by fascists -> Long or short megacorps (depends if fascists or winning or losing), long precious metals, short anything the fascists are against. If losing, liquidate everything you have with the domestic bank and transfer cash converted to Swiss franc or metals to foreign banks in safe havens. Long stablecoins (stablecoins will have a premium vs. domestic currency). Major revolution by semi-fascists -> Long megacorps, long precious metals, short anything the fascists are against (e.g., ESG) Major revolution by moderates (unlikely given moderates don't give enough shit to start a revolution) -> long/short based on your discretion, don't long precious metals Major revolution by environmentalists -> Long precious metals, short oil/gas, short bonds, buy TIPS, long ESG stocks Major revolution by semi-communists -> Long precious metals, short bonds, buy TIPS, start transferring cash to banks in Swiss/Dubai/Singapore/Luxembourg. Long real-estate only IF the semi-commies say they will give 100yr leases. Long stablecoins (stablecoins will have a premium vs. domestic currency) Major revolution by communists -> Short everything except precious metals (if possible). Short any company that have assets in the US and is publicly listed on foreign exchanges. Stockpile cigs & drugs as it will be used as de-facto bribery currency. Transfer cash converted to Swiss franc or metals to foreign banks in safe havens. Long stablecoins (stablecoins will have a premium vs. domestic currency) WWIII (No nuclear warheads used) -> Long US equities (esp military industry), short non-US companies. WWIII (Nuclear war) -> Its joever Large protests against ICE -> Depends entirely on Trump's reaction

Thistlemanizzle

So were precious gemstones, however the diamond industry has seen massive downward pricing pressure from artificial diamonds, so now a lot of jewelry that was kept around in part because it could be resold is worth 10-20% of what it was. I imagine Gold will have some staying power, but I would feel safer with financial instruments like TIPS.

Cool_Giraffe6495

Let's give the audience the full picture... There are Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS, and FRNs. Here are the dates for the upcoming auctions: [Upcoming Auctions — TreasuryDirect](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/)

GrandRare1634

Based solely on my understanding of it, I've been looking at parking longer term funds in TIPS - even if there's inflation, they should provide protection, and if lenders demand higher yields, they should benefit as well? Fully aware I might be totally wrong about this, but that's my hope from what I've read about them.

EveryPassage

Wouldn't even need the S&P500 at that point, just invest in 20 TIPS and you are set.

TWSTrader

**Spent a decade on the buy-side here.** The "Foreigners are Dumping Treasuries" headline is the oldest scare story in the bond market. We see it every cycle. Before you rotate into International Bonds (BNDX), you need to understand the mechanics of *why* you hold bonds and what BNDX actually does. **1. The "Dumping" Fallacy** When China or Japan "dumps" Treasuries, they aren't doing it because they think the US is going broke. They are doing it to **defend their own currency.** * *The Mechanic:* They sell Treasuries (USD) to buy their own currency (Yen/Yuan) to prop it up. * *The Result:* Yields might spike temporarily, but the US Bond market is the deepest, most liquid pool of collateral on Earth. When yields spike, US domestic institutions (Pensions, Insurance co's) step in to lock in the higher rates. It self-corrects. **2. The BNDX Trap (The "Hedge" Cost)** You asked about BNDX. * **The Problem:** Vanguard's BNDX is **Currency Hedged** back to the USD. * *Why this matters:* You are buying European or Japanese bonds (which often yield *less* than US Treasuries) and then paying a fee to hedge the currency exposure away. * *The Math:* You end up with a portfolio that behaves very similarly to US bonds but often with lower yield. You aren't getting the "Dollar Crash" protection you think you are. **3. The Real Risk: Duration, not Geography** If you are worried about US fiscal dominance (debt issues), the risk isn't that the government defaults. The risk is that they **inflate** the debt away. * *The Liability:* Long-duration bonds (20+ years) get crushed by inflation. * *The Fix:* You don't need to go International; you just need to shorten your duration. * **VGIT** (Intermediate) is the sweet spot (5-7 years). * **TIPS** (which you already own) are the *direct* hedge against the fiscal irresponsibility you are worried about. **My Take:** Don't overcomplicate the fixed income side. Foreign bonds (especially hedged ones) often just add correlation without adding alpha. Stick to your US Treasury/Muni mix. If you are truly paranoid about the US debt spiral, the answer is **Gold** or **Short-Term Bills (SGOV)**, not German Bunds.

FrankDrebinOnReddit

I haven't decided whether corporate bonds will be part of my mix yet (if so, it would be in fund form, not individual bonds), but certainly a combination of short and intermediate duration. Short duration bonds (t-bills) don't have much if any interest rate risk. You might receive less income from them if rates drop, but as ballast that you sell when needed, their prices don't respond to rates much since they mature so quickly. Intermediate-duration bonds do carry modest interest rate risk, but they're often but not always anticorrelated with equities during an equity drawdown. When equities drop, there's a decent chance that interest rate drops will follow, which increases bond prices. These could be nominals or 5Y/10Y TIPS. I think I'm too risk-averse to go beyond 10Y bonds.

nutbuckers

> One does not simply cut the U.S out of the world economy. Let's just watch the 10 Year TIPS, would be funny if it gets cozy around 2.5%... been edging there for a while :--)

moiax

I've come to the same conclusion. Build up some bonds, but build a 10 year I-Bonds&TIPS ladder. If I do 30%, than those bonds equal a 3% withdraw that is inflation protected. Depending on rates at the time, I may do regular treasuries. The equity will continue to grow and hopefully be enough to reduce SoRR.

EvolvingDior

Just remember, if they lie about inflation, they don't have to pay as much interest on the TIPS they sold.

TotalDebt5868

I’m halfway through The Intelligent Investor as well, and Zweig’s 2024 commentary is great. I think Graham’s core ideas—margin of safety, Mr. Market, and disciplined rebalancing—still hold. What’s changed is which tools you use for defense given today’s rate/inflation backdrop. * Bonds are portfolio ballast: they reduce volatility and help you avoid selling stocks at lows when you need cash. Correlation with equities rose during the inflation/hiking phase, but if rates fall, longer-duration bonds benefit more; short-duration (T-bills/short-term ETFs) track current yields with less price risk. * Money market vs bonds isn’t either/or: money markets offer high liquidity and decent current yields, but their payout drops when rates fall; bonds may appreciate in that scenario. Choose based on whether you want steady, liquid yield or rate sensitivity for potential capital gains. * If you’re young and risk-tolerant, you don’t need a heavy bond allocation, but rules-based rebalancing matters. Instead of fixating on a strict 60/40, build a “equities + fixed income” framework and rebalance annually or at thresholds to avoid emotional swings. * A simplified mix: broad equity ETFs plus a tiered fixed income sleeve (e.g., T-bills/ultra-short ETFs for cash management; a modest slice of intermediate/long duration for rate-cut exposure; local munis if tax-advantaged). If you prefer “bond-like” income, pipelines/quality REITs can be a small allocation, but remember they’re still equities. * Reading: One Up On Wall Street and Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits pair nicely with Graham—Lynch helps you find businesses you understand; Fisher strengthens qualitative growth analysis. Use Graham’s framework to anchor position sizing and behavior. My takeaway: since your gains likely came from the bull run, do a light, rules-based rebalance—shift some profits into “short-duration cash-like + a bit of bonds,” keep your offense in broad equities/quality names, and set a rebalancing trigger (say ±5% from target). BRK can be a core equity, but it isn’t a hedge. Hold cash for needs within the next 1–2 years. More concrete tiers: * 3–6 months expenses: money market/T-bills (high liquidity) * Midterm reserve: short bonds/CDs/TIPS (depending on inflation view) * Defensive hedge: a small slice of intermediate/long Treasuries or bond ETFs * Growth engine: broad equity ETFs or high-quality stocks (including BRK) Write down your target mix and rebalancing rule, then follow it—less noise, more consistency.

blueberrypancake234

You can open a Roth. Do you have a Roth? You can invest in iBonds on Treasury Direct or TIPS. You can start putting money into the S&P500, but know that the market could suffer a large correction in the near future, so you have to be able to emotionally weather that. And it only makes sense if you plan to put money in every year so you can take advantage of dollar cost averaging.

Confident-Court2171

TIPS are bonds. Protected by devaluing currency. I don’t think you know what you’re buying.

desi_cucky

No. Bonds are mostly useless. I invest in TIPS to withhold cash for opportunities or in general for long term budgeting.

Easik

Well, STRIPS are way simpler from a tax and income planning perspective. You know exactly what you are getting and when you are getting it. If you have a huge bucket of money in other accounts for retirement/fun, then I would aim for STRIPS instead of trying to maximize your return with TIPS. Especially if your STRIPS ladder covers all essential/unexpected expenses and it lets you spend your retirement however you feel like it.

Easik

Without knowing the rest of the portfolio, risk, financial situation, age, etc, it's pretty hard to give advice. I think the question is really, do you think inflation will go up or stay the same in the future and this gives you your answer. I vote that inflation will be higher in the future and throughout the duration of the treasury, so I would go for TIPS to retain buying power.

sanyasea

Imagine thinking TIPS or index linked gilts protect you from inflation.

Timbo1994

I am in the UK and have 10% of my portfolio in inflation-linked gilts here (equivalent of TIPS). I am a little addicted to them - I think they're a great concept as an asset and quite a lot lower risk than cash/other bonds.

Swirl_On_Top

So, what inflation hedge y'all doing? - US stocks - International Stocks - Real Estate - Precious medals - Cryptocurrency - Commodities - TIPS Any others?

tinydisaster

His chair ends in May. His governor seat with voting rights goes in January of 2028. Lower rates do not simply equate to line goes up. They can redefine inflation and choose to ignore the dual mandate. This pisses off bond holders who own 38T of our debt, as inflation eats away their yield and the TIPS system breaks down. Miran said this in an interview on Bloomberg if you’d like to hear their plan. They can open up lines of credit with the fed in an emergency basis. There is a lot that a compliant fed can do that is dangerous when it’s not politically independent. Our currency is often stated as having exorbitant privileges because of our independence and credibility.

gravescd

Treasuries have a constant coupon rate regardless of inflation, except for TIPS. They are cash flow and their price is based substantially on the NPV of that cash flow. Gold is a universal intermediary among currencies with almost no intrinsic value. Its price is supply/demand and vibes. These are entirely different assets and have different functions in a portfolio. OP wants to replace Treasuries due to uncertainty in the dollar, so it doesn't make sense to suggest a non-cash flow asset with totally different pricing dynamics. There are plenty of bonds out there not tied to USD liquidity.

zachmoe

>Fixed income investing is difficult even for pros.  Agreed, which is why I recommended Floating Rate Notes, the risk in Bonds, besides inflation which is a given even with TIPS, is interest rates going up.