TIPS

2020isgreat

I'm going to buy APPL at a 40 P/E ratio instead of TIPS because I'm retarded

jonnno_

Yes, I went from 80% stocks to 65% stocks and used the proceeds to build up a 2 year cash buffer and a 5 year TIPS and corporate bond ladder.

alpacaMyToothbrush

> Bonds >are< low return. *Were TIPS aren't a bad deal at all right now. If by 'other income' you mean you're a land lord, well, you've got more patience for it than I would at your age. I'm trying to get my parents to sell their rental property because what little they earn on rent is absolutely swamped by the hassle. Like damn guys, enjoy your retirement for pete's sake.

VeryStableGenius

30 year TIPS are paying 3.3% over inflation. In a tax-sheltered account, they'd provide 99.9% safe positive real returns, while waiting for the Big One. This 3.3% is just a bit less than the oft-recommended 4% draw-down for a retirement account, so a retiree could live in an inflation-protected holding pattern indefinitely. If there's a recession, another bout of QE would make them shoot way up in value. That is, assuming the FED still has the resources to do QE. Risk: rates go even higher, bonds go down.

Sea-Huckleberry2788

That certainty you're describing is nominal, not real. A 5% coupon taxed at ordinary income with inflation eating into it is not a 5% return, which is why TIPS exist at all.

big_deal

Buying a treasury bond and holding to maturity locks in the nominal yield. Real yield will vary with inflation. Value of the bond will vary according to changes in market yield and remaining term of the bond. Buying a TIPS bond and holding to maturity locks in the real yield relative to the original purchase price. Value of the TIP will vary according to changes in market yield, inflation, and the remaining term of the bond. I-bonds lock in real yield for 30 years but have flexible exit and zero risk to principal value if liquidated even if yields vary. But investment is limited to $10k per year per person. If your timeframe is 6 months then invest in short term bond fund like SGOV, TBIL - the volatility is minimal, certainly less than buying a 5 or 10 year treasury bond and planning to sell after 6 months. Or just use a high-yield savings account - the difference in return over such a short period probably isn't significant.

dagilisek

It's up by 39% from a yr ago and CPI was up 3.4% for the yr to Aug, and that is above the 2.3% I used, which means on that inflation rate a regular 10yr at 5.21% is closer to 1.8% real. That's the case for TIPS which pay 2.88% real if held to maturity.

DiscountSensitive574

TIPS are at about 3% and it’s the only bonds I’d even consider given my long time horizon.

JackfruitCrazy51

I'm 3 years away from retirement, I created a TIPS ladder. If I was under 50, I'd be 70% VOO and 30% VT.

dagilisek

The 10yr TIPS real yield was 2.88% on Oct 13 per Treasury so the inflation protected return is closer to 3% than 1-2%. A regular 10yr at 5.21% beats that if inflation averages under about 2.3%.

rocier

just gonna buy TIPS for the next 10 years

BusinessEnchilada27

If it's all just gravy, invest right now. But if you'll actually need it for retirement etc invest a large percentage but keep another part in treasuries to help you sleep at night. TIPS were paying 2.6% recently which is a great alternative at the moment

LCJonSnow

You pick an allocation that *you* believe in, then stick with that allocation over the long run. I'm invested 65/35 in US/International. The International tilts to developed markets, and the US portion tilts to value. At 39 (fiance and my average age will be 40), I'll start a glide path that ends at a 30% bond allocation at 59, investing in some mix of BND or BNDW and TIPS. I've thought a crash/severe correction has been imminent for more than half a decade now, but I stay invested (and keep contributing the same cut of every paycheck) because I believe in my long-term plan.

railbeast

You good starting your retirement counting pennies in the worst case? Or are you going to retire and go "ahh, time to spend money!" If the second one, TIPS ladder and out of risky stocks.

TrashPanda_924

In retirement, I think you’ll want a little more in stability and cash flow. The AI buildout may keep going or it may pause. I’d probably add a TIPS ladder or some other bond ladder the closer you get.

ohhim

If I go full send on 30 year Treasury TIPS here, do I lose all of my street cred?

Rabitai_Trades

The catch with that is the bond side. At 18x forward the earnings yield is about 5.5%, and a 10y Treasury pays 5.28% right now, or 2.92% real if you buy TIPS. That's a thin cushion for owning stocks over bonds, so a big rip probably needs yields to come down as well, not just oil. If the oil shock fades and the 10y drifts back toward where it was in August (around 4.65%), sure, but that's two things going right, not one.

IsopodAdmirable5597

I get the breakeven point is key, but one thing that often gets skimmed is the tax on the CPI bumps. In a taxable account you pay ordinary income tax on those principal adjustments, so the 3.17% real yield can shrink a few basis points. Compared to a nominal Treasury in the same bracket, that after‑tax gain can actually make nominal beat the TIPS if inflation is at or just below breakeven. So even if CPI stays high, that phantom income can tilt the balance.

Fr00stee

the TIPS market says there is no inflation

Spacey_G

Agreed, and I think the way these dynamics work is often misunderstood. A lot of folks prefer nominal Treasuries because they feel there is less uncertainty about their total yield. When you buy a nominal bond, you know exactly how many dollars you'll get back if held to maturity. With TIPS, the total yield is unknown until the bond actually matures. In reality, though, nominal Treasuries only provide guaranteed yield in *nominal* dollars. But because future inflation is uncertain, you don't know how much that yield will actually be worth. TIPS provide the opposite - uncertain yield in nominal dollars but guaranteed yield in *real* dollars. Both types of bonds have their own flavors of certainty and uncertainty. As you point out, which type wins out (in real dollars) depends on how inflation actually runs compared to breakeven. Some people minimize the risk by splitting their bond allocation evenly between nominal Treasuries and TIPS.

D74248

January, 2031 is paying 2.56%, but it is important to understand that the yield is on top of the inflation adjustments, which use CPI-U. So, CPI-U plus 2.56% However, it is best to buy the bonds and hold to maturity. TIPS bond funds carry extreme interest rate risk.

AdventurousLink8454

Interesting to hear your take; I've skimmed the BLS CPI methodology and it's pretty open – the basket methods, weight changes, and revisions are all public. That hasn't stopped some people from pointing out how a small tweak can bump the principal on a 30‑yr TIPS by several dollars of tax. In the end though, it all boils down to breakeven inflation: if the CPI trail stays a shade under the 2.23 % breakeven, you’re better off with the nominal; if it goes above, the TIPS have the edge. So rather than fret about a conspiracy, just run the numbers under a few CPI scenarios.

Intrepid_Cup2765

Sure, but TIPS still have a terrible rate of return.

hugh2018

You’re as much as 20 years from retirement, so sorry but I’m not buying your assessment that staying heavily in VT is irresponsible. You have a timeline of at least 10 years and you do appear to understand how the market works, so your twitchiness is frankly hard to understand. How would you respond if the market tanked 40% tomorrow? If your answer, at age range mid-40s, is anything other than “nothing” then I’m sorry we are on very different wavelengths and I probably have no actionable advice to offer you. I’m not sure what you mean when you say your jobs are tied to the market. If you’re basically saying you lack job security, then yeah, moving to safe assets may be rational. That said, unless you’re living a very extravagant lifestyle, your current resources are very deep and frankly if you feel better fleeing to safety, you probably can afford to pay the opportunity cost, which you’ll need to acknowledge (to yourself) will be huge. If you’re dead set on fleeing to safety, I recommend investigating the possibility of a TIPS ladder. Among the typical options of corporate bonds, annuities and TIPS ladders, I find TIPS ladders to be the most attractive, especially with current yield being so favorable. Another option to consider is to move some money that you don’t need immediately into a MYGA or a ladder of MYGAs, as ones paying 6% are currently available. I have a three-year MYGA that pays 6%.

D74248

TIPS are designed for times of inflation.

IronyElSupremo

What’s being seen is some investor buying of especially short-term bonds as the risk-free rate increases (i.e. .still getting 90% of the yield) getting away from geopolitics. Especially if an older investor, there’s a chance to “lock” in a decent short term rate using a laddered etf strategy, esp with TIPS, .. or even add a little cheaper “insurance” on long term rates, esp in tax-deferred, that can be reinvested using a fund/etf. Not to a massive amt, but some Wall St firms are close to announcing the 60/40 is back.

ProfessionalFlan5683

Sympathies, this is a genuinely hard mix to size. Where I'd push back is the idea that the US government can push yields down: they own the short end, and the 10-year has ignored them before whenever inflation stayed hot. Short duration or TIPS does more for your bond leg than betting on Washington's incentives.

hugh2018

You’re preaching to the choir regarding inflation. I own a 20-year TIPS ladder, so inflation hedge is clearly a priority for me. The inflation bogeyman doesn’t change my objection to skilliard7’s comment that there are entire decades where the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value. That’s just flat out false and I’ll always call that kind of error out because it can mislead people who are here trying to learn about investing. Saying there are multiple rolling periods of ten years or more with 50% loss tells people that even responsible long-term investment is a fast track to losing one’s shirt, and that simply isn’t true.

Top-Positive6537

With otc heating up watching NXGB, TIPS, PNXP

Yottahz

30 year TIPS shot over 3.4% real. The fun is nearly over for the market as a guaranteed real rate of return of 3.4% with USA inflating away the rest of the bond market means people will bid these up soon. Probably will be paying 2% in a couple years.

Spacey_G

>Also doesnt it track the official CPI rate which has been like 3%? A TIPS bond gives total return through two mechanisms. It pays a fixed coupon rate just like a regular bond (typically 0-3%). Then when it matures it pats back the principal adjusted for inflation, using CPI for the calculation. So if you buy a TIPS with 2% coupon and inflation runs at 3%, you'll get a total return of 5%. A TIPS fund just holds individual bonds and passes the total return through as dividends.

VerdantPathfinder

I have way more than that in a TIPS mutual fund. IIRC, it's FIPDX. I think it's $10m per auction

BFox1982

If you buy $1 billion dollars of TIPS 30 year bonds right now, you'd have $33 million dollars of inflation protected income per year. Why aren't more people doing this?

giant-spiders

I may be way off course, but I thought you could only buy like 10k per year in TIPS?

OrangeManBibi

TIPS is better

TurboBerries

I dont understand how tips works. Fidelity shows their TIPS fund has a negative 1 year return. Its not clear what the difference in returns would be vs SPAXX for example. Also doesnt it track the official CPI rate which has been like 3%? Which is less than spaxx yield for the past 6 years? The real inflation rate seems way higher. Ive been holding spaxx for a long time now

Articuno

The argument that TIPS are a flawed measure of reading inflation expectations always seemed flawed to me - if you really think nominal price action is driving TIPS pricing, you have a huge arbitrage opportunity in front of you. Whatever is driving the price action is affecting TIPS and nominals equally, and it's not an expectation of above target long term inflation. The 5y5y has traded between 2-2.5 in the entire post-COVID period. On a CPI basis, that's consistent with target.

kurai-tsuki

Which is why I don't get why more people don't jump into TIPS or ETFs like VTIP. You get the perks of being US backed securities that don't fall behind inflation. They lose nav with interest rate rise, but the payouts more than cover that over a long enough time.

Rule_Of_72T

Yes, you are correct. I should have expanded further and said 4% TIPS would allow for retirement without spending down the principal and have no equity risk. The biggest risk would be reinvestment risk, but it could be managed with TIPS available in very long duration.

11010001100101101

That doesn't explain it as high inflation expectations. The spread between nominal Treasuries and TIPS shows that breakeven inflation hasn't risen nearly enough to explain the increase in nominal yields. Most of the move has been in real yields, with term premium and tighter financial conditions potentially contributing as well.

hobbinater2

How do you explain the low breakeven inflation on TIPS while claiming the market is expecting higher inflation?

Spirited-Manner9674

No I just was saying that if inflation stays around where it is now. TIPS if inflation goes crazy.

__redruM

> TIPS provide 3.3% after inflation. What’s it return before inflation? Taxes are on the before inflation returns. In the end it should be better than 1.4, but likely still in the 2% range.

Rule_Of_72T

TIPS at 4% real would allow for the 25x 4% rule retirement with no equity risk. I’m keeping my duration short and not trying to time this falling knife.

Scedasticity1

>That means the market is fundamentally pricing in higher inflation expectations The TIPS yield tells exactly the opposite story.

skilliard7

>Can you live on 1.4%? TIPS provide 3.3% after inflation. >Strangely the market around those companies returns considerably more. The SP500 has a 1% dividend yield and cash flows have been turning negative at many of the largest companies. The returns in recent years have come from speculation.

Taggart3629

We're trying for a sturdy and fairly large "bond tent" during the early years of retirement, which will actually be a combination of a MYGA, a TIPS ladder, SGOV, and AAA CLO, with some dividend income. It may be as large as 40% or 50% depending on what the market conditions look like in a year or three, when we're ready to pull the trigger. Our CFP's guidance is to gradually pare down the bond allocation the further we get into retirement because the sequence of returns risk are highest early in retirement. This article was really interesting because [it uses S&P 500 data over a 20-year period](https://www.agwealthm.com/post/understanding-sequence-of-return-risk-the-hidden-threat-to-retirement-and-early-retirement) (2000 to 2020) run forward when the market was tanking to the current long bull market, and run backwards to show what the 4% rule would do to a portfolio if the market downturn happens early in retirement versus late in retirement.

GlobalVillage30

Totally on the same page as you. TBH, I already loaded up on long term individual bonds 3 years ago but still locked in 5.85% YTM. Now they are around 6.5% so I’m in the red of course. But the income is still good unless inflation gets high again. And who knows what will happen years from now - if rates do go down the bond prices will shoot up. But for sure now I’m only buying ultra short term bonds funds and 0-5 year TIPS.

big_deal

Real yields on bonds do look quite attractive right now. Short term bonds, TIPS and maybe I-bonds after the November fixed rate adjustment are most attractive to me. I'm avoiding duration risk of longer term bonds given probability of more Fed rate increases over the next year and generally inflationary policy (fiscal deficit, trade restrictions, immigration restrictions).

GlobalVillage30

I agree this is a good strategy for many people and I was wondering when someone would suggest it! I would still keep a growth bucket though - as the WSJ article shows you still need to beat episodes of high inflation. DGRO is anyway a more growth focused dividend fund so a combo of SCHD and DRGO perhaps solves that issue….. Bonds I think are very attractive for retirees with the high yields they offer. Just need to be careful how to structure re. duration risk vs locking in high yields and bond funds vs individual bonds and TIPS vs normal bonds.

ruydiat1x

There are two different things. In the case of bond, real yield is fixed and never get above 5.6%. Inflation can eat into that. Gain from bonds is also not compounding too well because of taxes. As for stock, computer can raise price (which is part of the inflation) which can indirectly increase the stock value so you get some protection. The share gains value w/o getting taxed along the way so it compounds better than bonds. No, 5.6% risk-free is not enough to change my mind. If 10-year TIPS gain is 4% then I would jump in it (or a 5% for 30-year TIPS).

VerdantPathfinder

TIPS to the rescue!!!

D74248

> Inflate away the debt? Get stocks. Or TIPS.

BlockQuantCapitalLab

The comparison flatters the bond a bit: an earnings yield is closer to a real number, because earnings tend to grow with prices, while the 5.59% coupon is fixed in nominal dollars for 30 years. The fairer hurdle is the 30-year TIPS real yield, or the nominal yield minus your own inflation guess. Also worth seeing how little the long end pays for the extra length: on Tuesday's Treasury curve the 10-year closed at 5.26% vs 5.59% for the 30-year, so about 33 bp more yield for roughly twice the rate risk (modified duration ~14.5 vs ~7.7 years). If the goal is locking in 5%+ without making a 30-year call, the 10-year or a ladder gets you most of the yield.

11010001100101101

The difference being now things are severely bending, so a trillion $ IPO failing could be what pushes it forward but that definitely wouldn't be the only reason why. As evidence by the sudden and drastic rise in treasury yields over the past week while inflationary expectations from spreads using TIPS are flat. Meaning the yields are rising from USD scarcity.

Apple2o

That’s why retail should stick to the TIPS 😏

AndItsThetaAgain

In an inflationary environment, 3 month treasuries have never lost money. But 10yr+ have lost as much as 18%, TIPS (inflation adjusted) as much as 16%

Parking_Dark_505

I think your math is incorrect (too good to be true, BTW). “TIPS are paying 3.17% plus inflation.” is only a marketing slogan. I think they pay based on the change in inflation, that is, based on the index ratio (google that). So, for example, if CPI is a constant 2% over the life of the bond, the index ratio is 1, and at maturity, we only get the original value of the bond. Correct me, if I’m wrong on this. So, they pay 3.17%, because this is close to the current CPI. Hence, you only get the interest equivalent to the inflation, not more. Your assumption that the actual inflation is added to 3.17% seems to be totally wrong. I can see a lot of confusion on this topic online. It seems that many “financial advisors” online make the same mistake. I’m totally new to TIPS, but I know how to interpret formulas. I hope to get more input on this topic in this discussion forum.

Upset-Motor-2602

Buy TIPS and TLT

arlsol

Also, liquidity in the TIPS market is far less than regular TSYs. So trading costs are higher.

curio_123

Yes and no. The 10 year TIPS breakeven is considered a flawed measure for future inflation cos long term TIPS are tightly held by buy-and-hold investors like insurers, pension funds, target maturity funds etc so the float for active trading is small and relatively illiquid. Hence, the breakeven rate has a lot of persistence around its recent range, unless there are very clear signals that future inflation is rising and persistent. Hence, the 5-year, 5 year forwards is also closely watched because there’s more active trading and more sensitive. It has risen by about 30-35 bps. The rise in the 10 year UST is also driven by the ballooning high grade issuance for AI builds, esp as insurers are increasingly shifting allocations from the long end of USTs to these new issuances due to their attractive yields.

sentry_chad

The problem is more that there’s just a lot of economic growth. There’s also some effect from corporate bonds around AI and data centers that are crowding out demand for debt related investments in the US. And less important in magnitude, there’s generally less demand for treasuries relatively speaking from foreign governments recently due to funding stuff related to Iran war stuff Also, this 20% inflation thesis is silly. A lot of countries have had their sovereign yields go up in tandem the last few months. It’s not an US specific phenomenon. Another way to realize that’s wrong is to just look at TIPS vs treasuries spreads…  Not only that, your presentation of post WW2 inflation is quite ahistorical Misinformation comment getting a bunch of upvotes, classic 

piccolo181

A future market crash is an inevitability if you look far enough out... so the answer is yes. >What is your take on the current Situation? There Are a Lot of things going on, Like dept, oil Crisis, bonds, extension of war etc. Don't forget the affordable living crisis and the AI bubble. >I See those issues worldwide, Not only US related. So for the more experienced guys, how did it feel prior to the 2008 Crisis? A lot like today. >What is your recommendation to Cover for downside? Just curious about your opinion. Conservatively TIPS seem a safer bet. Aggressively, keeping cash reserves to go shopping with if the bottom drops out is a decent idea. Personally, I wouldn't buy anything right now that I wouldn't be willing to hold onto through a couple rough years.

sunderbelt

Honestly your inflation logic is pretty sound, but there's a nuance worth considering on the nominal bond side. When deflation or disinflation hits hard and fast, nominal bonds actually outperform in ways TIPS can't match. TIPS principal adjusts downward in deflation, and the real yield you're locking in today assumes you hold to maturity without needing liquidity. If rates drop sharply, nominal bonds get a massive price appreciation boost that TIPS dampens because the market had already priced in the inflation protection. Also your breakeven math is correct but incomplete. The 2.23% breakeven is after tax in a taxable account. TIPS phantom income on principal adjustments gets taxed as ordinary income even though you don't receive it as cash. That erodes the real advantage more than most people account for. On your macro thesis though, you're touching on something real estate investors deal with constantly. In my world, borrowers love inflationary environments because they're paying back loans in cheaper dollars. The problem is that inflation rarely arrives smoothly. You get volatile bursts that crater purchasing power unpredictably, which is actually bad for long duration anything, nominal or TIPS, because duration risk cuts both ways when volatility spikes. The strongest argument for nominal bonds isn't that inflation stays low. It's that a recession or credit event forces a flight to safety where everyone piles in regardless of fundamentals. What's your actual goal here, are you building a specific portfolio allocation or just stress testing your thesis?

Business-Evening-816

If you want to know more about TIPS, this guy seems to be pretty much the authoritative source. He's been big on I-bonds as well, and has a recent article breaking down where they both are right now: [https://tipswatch.com/2026/09/20/tips-vs-i-bonds-lets-do-the-math/](https://tipswatch.com/2026/09/20/tips-vs-i-bonds-lets-do-the-math/)

Business-Evening-816

"People favor what they understand" - I think this is the most important thing you said. TIPS are not well known, though they have been getting a lot more press recently. Here's how I'm thinking of it: Buying a nominal bond is making a bet that rates will average lower over the life of that bond. Buying a TIPS bond is saying you don't know where rates are going, you just want to meet an expected inflation-adjusted cost for a future expense. Financial institutions of course are different than individual investors, but sometimes individual investors like to try to play the same game.

GAV17

Yeah, TIPS aren't that far off Turkish inflation adjusted yields. Brazil though, they are at almost double digits real rates. It's insane.

ziggy029

Not radically, but I am considering adding more to my TIPS ladder. With real yields of 2.75-3% on the long end, I might be comfortable reducing my equity allocation long term and knowing I won’t have to touch the equities for at least a decade after I retire.

Historical_Low4458

I agree with you that 5% isn't high enough for the interest rate risk, but from my limited understanding of TIPS, I'm not sure the risk is worth it to me either. That's why I invested in I-Bonds instead.

wrestlingchampo

Main reason Ive seen mentioned is people really dont trust the inflation metrics being used to calibrate TIPS prices.

Simple_Purple_4600

I wish my TIPS were connected only to oil prices

Spacey_G

"The Government" is not a monolith. CPI is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and TIPS are paid out by the Treasury. These are independent agencies and BLS has no incentive to manipulate the numbers. In addition, CPI methodology is transparent, peer-reviewed, and closely scrutinized by independent economists. The idea that TIPS carry some risk of inflation figures being manipulated to the benefit of the federal government is squarely in "wacky conspiracy theory" territory.

ctcsback

Why everyone cares - because the federal government doesn't issue TIPS to fund government spending. If you are an investor, you wouldn't touch bonds because their nominal value is bottom tier. This is the issue, ala higher rates, meaning higher debt/interest payments, and the cycle continues. Unfortunately, you can't take old assumptions like the 4% rule and also break assumptions like an average 2% inflation in the future.

Fiveby21

> One thing that nags at me though. TIPS pay out based on CPI. The government measures CPI. The government pays out on CPI. That's a weird conflict of interest that nobody talks about. Every point they shave off CPI saves them a fortune in TIPS and social security. Am I wrong to be a little paranoid about that? Exactly my concern, especially with the current government trying to fudge the numbers. Who can be sure just how bad the inflation REALLY is.

ShivkalaB5

>One thing that nags at me though. TIPS pay out based on CPI. The government measures CPI. The government pays out on CPI. That's a weird conflict of interest that nobody talks about. Every point they shave off CPI saves them a fortune in TIPS and social security. Am I wrong to be a little paranoid about that? I considered the same thing when deciding between TIPS and nominal. I'm not an expert so someone could shoot me down, but here's how I thought about it: There's a breakeven CPI between nominal versus TIPS. So if you've decided you want treasuries of some kind it doesn't matter so much if the reported CPI is accurate. It really only matters if the reported number is higher or lower than the breakeven CPI. In the current environment I find it hard to believe that the reported CPI will be below the breakeven anytime soon even if someone is cooking the books so I went TIPS. If I'm wrong, ok, I left a little money on the table. I'm good with that risk when compared to the risk that inflation remains elevated.

DoubleIntroduction25

Inflation could run cold over a good portion of the next 30 years, we dont know People buying for current cash flow may be more focused on nominal cash flow for near term years more than they are real cash flow over the full term Larger coupon bonds have shorter duration and as such lower price volatility With in a taxable account the tax treatment for TIPS and nominal USTs are not identical People favor what they understand

RedHatWombat

TIPS exists?

hugh2018

Not so fast. Going all in on bonds is not a safety play at all. Inflation is even more damaging to finances than most people realize. Lock in bond rates for a long period and you will not reliably beat inflation. Equity exposure remains the only way to trounce inflation and grow your wealth. TIPS are a useful tool as well because they do preserve buying power plus yield, but only when paired with decent equity exposure.

jretzy

I'm going to say maybe. If you were older for sure. If you do you might want to do it in a few tranches in case yields keep going up. With rates rising there is going to be a damper on growth. AI capex is about half the current growth in the US market right now. If that starts to slow down next year and higher rates drag on the market the market is likely not going to be a good of a risk adjusted investment with the current CAPE ratio. 10 year is as long as I am going and TIPS is what i prefer to lock in real inflation adjusted return. I don't trust the CPI but its better than nothing.

blufin

Gold. Stay away from Bitcoin, its a market manipulated by a few massive whales. Cant really do that with gold. And theres an increasing demand from central banks around the world to increase the gold proportion of their reserves which is a support for demand. Other than that, buying the shares in companies which have pricing power and so the ability to pass on increased costs to the public can work out well. Also Index linked bonds like TIPS in the US can be a hedge as well.

-Model_Citizen

Let me know if they have an equivalent to TIPS and I'm all in.

strange_username58

The core bond idea first. A bond is basically an IOU with fixed payments. When new Treasuries pay more, older bonds paying less look worse, so their prices fall until their yield matches. Price and yield move in opposite directions, always. That is the whole seesaw. Why rising Treasury yields tend to push stocks down, through three channels: - Future profits get discounted more. A stock is worth the present value of its future earnings. When the safe rate rises, the discount rate rises, so those future dollars are worth less today. Growth stocks with earnings far in the future get hit hardest, which is why you hear "higher rates hurt tech." - Bonds become tougher competition. If a 10-year Treasury pays 2%, many investors will accept stock risk to earn more. If it pays 5% with no credit risk, some money rotates toward the sure thing. That rotation compresses what people will pay per dollar of earnings, so P/E ratios shrink even if earnings are fine. - Borrowing gets pricier. Companies refinance debt at higher cost, mortgages and credit cards bite consumers, spending slows, and expected earnings growth softens. On your "institutions want to keep the market healthy" point: they do want returns, but they cannot vote against arithmetic. A pension fund still has to discount future cash at the going rate, and it still compares a 5% risk-free yield against risky stocks. No amount of cheerleading overrides that math. Now the inflection point idea. There is no magic rate where bonds suddenly beat stocks. What matters is relative value and your time horizon. People sometimes compare the S&P 500's earnings yield (roughly the inverse of its P/E) against the 10-year Treasury yield. When Treasuries pay a lot relative to that, stocks look expensive by comparison, and expected stock returns over the next decade tend to be lower. But "tend to" is doing heavy lifting here. Rate timing is notoriously unreliable, and 2022 was a great warning: rates rose fast and both stocks and bonds fell, because existing bonds lost value too. On the S&P 500 outperforming: US large caps have had a terrific run, especially the last 10 to 15 years, which is why it feels like a law of nature. Over very long stretches stocks have beaten bonds, but not every stretch. There were whole decades where bonds kept up or won, and long periods where international stocks beat US stocks. That is the case for holding VXUS alongside VOO: diversification, not a prediction. Should a 36-year-old divert some investing money to bonds? I cannot answer that for you personally, but here is the framework most educators use. At your age with decades ahead, many investors hold mostly stocks because they are chasing long-term growth and can ride out volatility. Bonds are usually added to dampen the ride and to fund nearer-term goals, not to boost returns. Useful questions: how would you feel watching your portfolio drop 30 to 50% and staying invested, do you have an emergency fund and high-interest debt handled, and is any of this money needed within five years? Common bond building blocks people learn about are total US bond market funds, intermediate Treasuries, and TIPS or I Bonds for inflation protection, each with different tradeoffs around duration and inflation risk.

aurelorba

I'd go for something that protects more from inflation. If you want government debt, then maybe inflation protected TIPS.

big_deal

The projections of 1.3% that I’ve seen were based on TIPS and treasury rates before the recent rise. I bond fixed rates have historically correlated with TIPS and treasuries. If current rates hold it should be higher than those 1.3% projections.

spilledonwhite

oh shit that part.... yeah TIPS feel like a scam

The-Iron-Bird

what kind of retard buys a 30y bond anyway, wouldn't TIPS make more sense at that time frame?

big_deal

Same. If TIPS rates hold similar to today then we're likely to see 1.5% fixed rate on I-bonds. ~1.5% real return for 30 years looks too good to pass up for fixed income.

Canamerican726

I'll take the steelman there - 'the yield matters because an increase in yield indicates an increase in risk in the underlying asset class, and is thus related to your personal risk tolerance'. Yep, agreed. Although it's the inverse of what the original comment was reading. I'll rephrase as: 'You shouldn't decide to buy a bond because it's yield increased, you should understand that an increase in yield implies an increase in risk. You then need to consider the risk profiles in alternative assets, and how they help you balance your risk out.' With an addendum: The UST rates are quite literally considered the closest thing to 'risk free' in US Dollars. If you're building a portfolio for someone with a low risk profile in USD, it's going to include UST at any rate, because even if the US Treasury is riskier than it was, it's still the best game in town. That's where Intro to Finance ends. Full stop. That's why 60/40 has been around so long. It's not optimal, it's provably suboptimal, but it's better than cash in a mattress. You then go to: That does not mean the UST is risk free, that does not mean a low risk portfolio is literally just UST or USD (then you're fully exposed to several major risk factors without hedge) etc etc. PIMCO is short the long end of the curve right now for a reason. For a low risk portfolio you want globally diversified bonds, equities, alternatives, TIPS, and consider your maturity, fx, inflation, etc etc risk with periodic, automatic rebalancing based on strategy and both macro and micro strategy realignment continaully. But that's a bit much for a reddit thread.

Yottahz

30 year TIPS went to 3.17% real rate today. The last time they got this high was 2000 but that was a time when a lot of money had been invested in tech, so it is different this time?

HollowGrey

Anyone buying TIPS?

Happy-n-Healthy

Did you as a US Citizen you can buy TIPS Treasury Inflation Protected Securites?

celtiberian666

It's best to compare earnings yield with long term TIPS, not bills. (still expensive)

Original-Peach-7730

I guess TIPS ladder is most conservative thing you can do. Gives you 2% real return, so if you are losing sleep, just lock it in and be done with it. House equity can deal with long term care if you need it.

Mountain-Time-1010

I don't have the same fear about a financial crisis, but if you really believe that, then you should probably take action. First thing would be to streamline your lifestyle to minimize your liabilities. If you own something completely, it can't be taken away from you. Similarly, downsize if possible. Perhaps you can live in a smaller home with lower taxes. Also, make yourself as self-sufficient as possible to minimize future expenses. Maybe solarize your home, and think about your other major expenses. Finally, wealth-preservation. Depending on how severe you believe the crisis will be, different levels of conservatism might suffice. If you believe that governments will survive, it could be time to buy government issued debt, like long-term t-bills, or TIPS if you want to hedge against inflation. If you are concerned about governments failing, physical gold or BTC might be more your style. And if you feel that the apocalypse is at hand, your best bet might be ammunition, freeze dried food, and a huge bunker with a massive underground cistern.

vexingparse

What makes the comparison not fair is that revenues automatically and by definition compensate you for inflation (in aggregate, not necessarily for each individual company). Therefore, a fair comparison would be between earnings yield and \_real\_ bond yields, i.e bond yields after inflation. The 10-year TIPS yield is 2.67% now.

celtiberian666

>The obvious answer is that earnings grow and a coupon doesn't. Fair enough, that's the whole equity bet. But it does mean you're paying a real premium today for growth you still have to get. That is not the only answer. Even if there is no REAL growth, companies, doing the same amount of business in the same market, will charge more over time for the products. **Earnings are, ceteris paribus, protected from inflation.** Inflation can even increase shor term earnings, vis-a-vis when compared to a no-inflation scenario, in a typical company, due to inventory. This means the best yield to compare stocks is TIPS. TIPS 10y is currently 2,65%.

atrox3838

Honestly this rally today felt weak. Oil off a couple points and equities moon. Real rates at the TIPS actioned like 35bps higher or some shit. Not to mention 30y still insanely high.

ZinniasAndBeans

\> I have no intention of retiring any time soon. When do you anticipate retiring? I think this is an important part of the situation. I am recently retired, and roughly half my money is in individual bonds, mostly TIPS ladders. Combined with a modest pension and the opton to start Social Security, I'd be fine for a couple of decades if the stock market crashed hard. If I were in your position, I would still probably put, oh, twenty percent into a shortish rolling TIPS ladder. That way if two disasters happen--a market crash \*\*\*\*and\*\*\*\* you for some reason can't keep working--you have some money secured while you figure out what to do.

Flayum

Why not just VT, BNDW, and a fixed income ladder (eg. TIPS)?

mitchzimmer

It sounds like you aren’t comfortable with the risk profile of 100% equities. Thankfully there are other asset classes you can invest in. Short duration TIPS are the nearest to a risk free asset that’s out there so would most effectively reduce the volatility of your portfolio. Gold has had a long history of low or negative correlation with equities, which can be explained by its opposite return drivers. Incorporating these assets will very likely reduce the volatility of your portfolio. How much they will cost (or benefit) you in expected returns is a matter of conjecture.