TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
dudes, GLD is not supposed to beat SPY or TLT over 20+ yrs. Something is seriously broken.
Oh not much, just that I've gotten away from selling ATM. And swung the other way entirely: selling at 16-delta, which is a 1 Standard Deviation move, or the Expected Move if your platform shows it. I just got done saying to someone in another thread that lots of things 'work' in options. And I think none are demonstrably "the best." But with GLD especially, my CCs at 30-delta, and then even at 25-20 delta, were getting consistently run over. And yes, I was rolling them, but never gaining enough ground to get them out ahead of the ETF. Point in case: I'm short a GLD 199DTE 333C that's ITM at 64-delta by 2.42. It's worth 20.00, which is $2,000 that could've been in my NetLiq. The 84-delta Call it's written against is going up faster, sure, but I'm only gaining (84 - 64) = 20 deltas, or 20% of GLD's move each day. I don't usually let them go out that long (60 days is kind of my max), but I never remember to save up enough cash in the acct to buy it back before I get down to it and go, "Crap. I forgot to buy this one back. Guess I'll roll it again." On another note, something I picked up on just this past week because someone mentioned it to me in another thread is TLT. Before you think, "It's just Treasuries, how exciting can it be?," look at its [1-year](https://imgur.com/a/VCYF8G9) and [1-month](https://imgur.com/a/HcV3j9e) charts. That rebound at the end is I think due to the upcoming rate cut expectation. The main thing I do these days that I don't think is in my OP is PMCCs: buy a Call a year out at 80-delta, sell a Call 30 days out at 30-delta. And for that, you don't necessarily need the underlying to go up much, but *you need it to not go down*. And I suspect that's going to be the case for Treasuries for the near term. So then watch this: Buy the TLT 489DTE 75C at 88-delta for **15.43**. Sell the 32DTE (from Monday) 28-delta 92C for **0.59**. ROI: 0.59 / 15.43 = 3.8% That's in 32 days, so annualize to about 43% if you could do it time after time. That's a LOT. AND it's Treasuries, which aren't going to drop quickly. AND that doesn't take into account any appreciation of the long Call. If you want MORE excitement, bring the long Call in to about 120 days: Buy the 16Jan84C at 80-delta for **6.65**. Then sell that same Call against it: (0.59 / 6.65)(365 / 32) = 101% apy, 'sort of'. So one thing I'm doing is settling down into a 5-ETF allocation which I'll rebalance monthly in general, or weekly if needed. GLD and TLT are going to have permanent 20% slots. Then I'll fill in the other 3 with things I pick. Take a look at the chart for MAGS to see the kind of price action I like. Take care!
New meta for my port: 25% of port in GDX, 40% in SGOV, 25% in TLT, and 10% cash to trade options. Sell weekly calls on TLT and GDX. Wait for large correction then go all in on SPXL/TQQQ
Why would you buy TLT puts right before a rate cut? Lol
All my TLT shorts are In-The-Money now, stagflation isn't good for long bonds.
Oh it was bonds that gaped me. Why did TLT just dump? Something happen?
I’ve got $50k of gains from the week parked in TLT. Feeling like I need to do a big yolo
feels weird seeing TLT above 90. Nostalgic.
Munching on a TLT-casserole right now. It's god-damn delicious.
TLT 🔥🚀 free money the rest of the year
continue to short TLT at 90.35; 👌👌👌
Up $40k in the last two days, have actually been taking gains and throwing into TLT. $50knin there now looking to buy if we dip next week with Fed meeting
Shorted more TLT at 90.15; stagflation is cumming our way.
Port update: long MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, AMZN and AAPL short TSLA and TLT
For now. I'll enjoy this little run in TLT while it lasts, though.
Shorted some TLT around 90.1, nice pop.
TLT bros are so desperate they think this is pumping for them LOL
TLT kinda mooning. 50bps back on the table?
Hoping for some more CNC and TLT pump.
Maybe not spy but definitely should beat TLT
dudes, GLD is not supposed to beat SPY or TLT over 20+ yrs
Powell better hurry up and do aggressive yield curve control so I can offload my TLT
TLT ride from 85 has been kinda nice. We might go up even more from here if big rate cuts confirmed. Bought a cheap 2dte 89 put tho just in case before close
TLT bulls finally coming out of their cage, Good luck
$QQQ turns Red. $TLT resumes it's breakout. Buy US Treasuries, Not stocks if you want to make money thru the end of 2025. Or continue to party like it's 1999 jamming to Prince. 50 bps rate cut has already been priced into the market.
#TLT PUTs, rate cut late, insignificant and pricing. Bonds will go up!
TLT short easiest play of my life after the rate cut
Glad I bought TLT earlier today.
Not how TLT works, moves down with inflation and up with recessionary data. Rate cuts will likely move TLT down especially if inflation still comes in hot this week. If inflation is cool then it will probably move up because low jobs + low inflation = recession
Interest rate cut coming. TLT gonna fly more.
Really? Right in front of my TLT calls?
The 0.3 core CPI's will continue until morale improves. I'm open to PPI being a little eye opening, but I'm dubious here, as it's quite possible a couple things (portfolio management) made that reading erroneous. IFFFF it becomes clearer that inflation is beginning to ramp instead of grind higher, then if you want to replay 2022, first, you need QQQ and TLT down at the same time to start happening again.
I bought multiple calls on TLT with different expirations and strike prices back in May of this year. I’m getting killed and down quite a bit but recently I’ve had some reinvigorated hope. I’ve learned so much though about the bond market and what causes yields to rise and fall especially on the long end of the curve. So even if my calls don’t hit I still gained valuable knowledge
Almost at break-even on my $89.50 TLT calls. Now I need them to help me recover from my other bad plays I made today.
Y'll looking in the wrong direction. TLT breaking $90 today 100%. Too much cucking going on in DC.
if we actually get rate cuts, long-duration bonds like TLT should benefit the most, and REITs usually catch a bid too as financing costs ease. The main risk is if cuts don’t come as fast as the market expects, you could be sitting on dead money for a while. Gold is trickier itss already run up a ton on the “lower rates plus geopolitical hedge” narrative, so some of that future upside might be priced in. Doesn’t mean it can’t go higher, but the risk/reward isn’t as clean as TLT or REITs right now if your horizon is long enough, building positions slowly into those assets seems like a reasonable play, just don’t go all-in on the rate cut narrative in case it drags out longer than expected
Looks like dollar down and treasury yields up. I was holding TLT last year, people were actually convinced in September that the economy would overheat this year due to the election of a messiah.
#Puts on TLT. Rate cut of .25 is just going to raise bonds higher.
IIRC, the long end yields went up (TLT went down) after the last Fed rate cuts. Good luck with that.
How’s that guy that bet 1.2 million on AMD and “hedged” with 600k of TLT doing? Pretty sure he bought at the top from what I remember
TGT a recession hedge? Since when? For a second I thought you misspelled TLT
TLT Puts also easy money rate cut price in and bond will go up, same as last time they cut a miserable .25 #Easy money. Puts on ADBE and Puts on TLT
Sold my TLT calls too early GUH
Lmao TLT soaring again now up $2700 on the day
There was like 5 or 6 BIG darkpool transactions that came thru on the TMF. Usually, these mark tops or bottoms depending on the shape of the trend. TLT has been basing out for months now
Damn, I feel like it's only been three days but I've already missed the move in TLT/TMF
Lucky, I’m all in on ADBE puts and TLT PUTS, Inverse this guys easy money!
#TLT. puts, rate cuts too anticipated. Bond will go up!
I did and got burned on liberation day bullshit, I think you need to be really careful of a bind vigilante situation where the Fed lowering the overnight rate sees opposite effect on TLT.
TLT puts …. Easy money Ratio e Cuts - Canceled or just insignificant
Higher deficit for longer narrative still alive and well. No move on TLT matter until CPI and PPI imo
GLD, TLT and SPY rising at the same time. A lot of regards are going to get fuked.
Looking at some Cheap puts on TLT, don’t FOMO Rate cuts not happening
Puts on TLT, rate cuts not happening!!
A really nice breakout for $TLT this morning. US 10 yr dropped to 4.053%. So much for the higher for longer bs narrative.
My TLT is barely up. Is there more than one TLT? 🤔
TLT pullback then another rally this week
Thanks, and you're welcome. I like to lay out the math here because it firms up my own thinking. And gives people a chance to rebut in case I made a mistake or some wild assumptions. I'm a bit confused though: you if you're holding longer-dated deep ITM Calls, then you have the cash for shorter-dated Calls. How deep ITM are you, delta-wise? Anyway, I'm not saying you SHOULD buy 3-month TLT Calls at 80-delta, but if you like the math, and you're convicted that TLT goes up from here... Good catch on the 8% compounding; I always leave that out, because people get in enough of a conniption already when I extrapolate an 8% gain this month to "kind-of sort-of generally maybe" a 96% apy. But the math is there to support it, so I don't back down much. Except on the idea of you being able to do that every month without getting run over. But getting run over is an even BETTER outcome, because you keep the Premium AND sell your long Call for a gain. After re-reading, is it that you don't think you can sell Calls against long Calls? You're broker will let you, but it may take a phone call or chat to get approved for the next options level, which isn't very high. CSPs and CCs are the simplest things we can do with options, and they give those to almost everybody. Now, you may not be able to put on a 'spread' straight-off, but once you own a long Call, see if you can't then sell a Call against it as collateral. Yeah, thanks for the offer of the TLT DD, but as you rightly surmised, I don't go in too much for that kind of thing. Which really, is just a prediction. I like to look at charts to see what the ticker is actually *doing*, and trade based on that. Same with catalysts and short-term plays: more predictions imo, even if they're backed by solid reasoning. Since I've stepped back from that kind of thing and started thinking over months to a year or so, my investing life has become much simpler. And more profitable, I might add. Good luck with all your stuff though! I know each of us has different things we get excited about, but in the end we're all trying to win at the same game. Take care.
Appreciate you laying this all out, man. Not a lot of people take the time to actually run the math and show their work, so it’s cool to see. Glad you’re liking TLT too — feels like one of those under-the-radar spots that could be a real winner if the macro plays out. The diagonal/PMCC angle you walked through makes a ton of sense — basically renting out the long call every month and letting the short decay do the work. That \~8% per month compounding you mapped out is eye-opening, especially since the extrinsic on the long isn’t that heavy to begin with. For me though, I just don’t have the options account size to pull it off right now. Wish I did, and maybe down the road I’ll be able to set something like that up. For now I’m sticking with longer-dated deep ITM calls for core exposure, and mixing in some short-dated plays around catalysts. Different toolbox, same belief that TLT’s got room to run. Thanks again for putting it out there — even if I can’t mirror it, seeing how you structure the math helps tighten up my own thinking. Jealous, youre going to make a killing man!
Repeatable strategy: this one. *As long as TLT continues to stay flat or go up.* Because if it goes *down*, then you're losing on the long side maybe as much as you're making on the short side. Better way: I'm totally NOT advising you do this, but it's posited by some that buying the long Call only 100-120 days out (but ALWAYS at 80-delta or more) is still safe-ish. That fits with my own experience, where I'd made a rule for myself to never buy less than 3 months out, after struggling with some Monthlies. So let's see what that would look like with TLT. 19December is **102 days** out from tomorrow (Monday), so just to get the max amplification, let me go there over the 114DTE 31Dec expiry. The 82-delta 19Dec82C at 82-delta is selling for **7.23**. And before I move on to bouncing the short Call against that, let me point out that shorter options have more theta in them **per day** than longer ones. Which means that given the 30-45DTE recommendation, one should lean on the 30-day side if they want more return. And for me, I've extrapolated that maybe 4 weeks, 28 days, is kind of okay. That lines up with much of my trading (at least new positions), which happens on the weekends. So, 03October is 4 full weeks out. The 25DTE 90.5C at 29-delta is selling for **0.60**. Now finally, the ROI. Hold onto your seat, as I am, because I haven't calculated this yet. But I kind of see it coming: 0.60 / 7.23 = 8.3% over the 4 weeks. And there are 13 4-week periods in a year, so multiply to "kind of" 107% apy. Check my numbers, but that's what I see. And what are the risks to getting that? **Only that TLT goes down.** Because if it goes *up* strongly, you let the short Call expire ITM, and sell your long Call (which will have appreciated a lot) to cover. Oh, that reminded me that in all this discussion I've failed to point out that that's the return *just from the short Calls.* If TLT goes up over time as you expect, *the long Call will appreciate also.* And for the 102DTE Call I bought here, it's leverage means it will go up (as a percentage) 10 times faster. 10.044 times faster, I calculated it, that's not a SWAG. And that's good because we need TLT to go up at least a little bit, in order to not lose on the long Call. How much? Just the extrinsic value we bought, which is 0.73 for that 19Dec82C. You can see that with the 60 cents we bring in from the short Call sales, it would take 1.3 of those to cover the theta loss on the long. That's why it's *so important* to do this on underlyings that are going up. But flat is okay too; you could still make money selling Calls if TLT stays absolutely flat, you can work that out for yourself with the numbers I've given. After working through this, I'm SERIOUSLY going to start moving money into TLT Diagonal Call Spreads. I'll come back in a few days with screenshots to 'prove' it. Thanks SO MUCH for bringing TLT to my attention!
Regardless of why you got in, I think you're on to something more general: long Calls on TLT. (Or perhaps other US Treasury ETFs.) I mean, I broke the chart action down for you, and with you supplying the macroeconomic driver, I don't see what's not to like. 45% projected apy on something that CAN'T FAIL? It's free money, literally. Because if it DOES fail, US Treasuries, then we're all screwed anyway. Let me check the numbers again, this time with a 348DTE long Call; it's just inside 1y, but close enough. The 21Aug 78C at 81-delta is selling for 11.65. But let's be conservative and hit the Ask: **11.75**. There's a market there for that call now, so there probably will be in the morning. Sell the same 40DTE Call against it for 0.72, and: ROI is (0.72 / 11.75)(365 / 39) = 57% apy projected. Of course that assumes that you can always buy them back for half (like we're supposed) to, but there's a pretty good chance we'd be able to. So even back that down to 40% and that's HUGE. Even 30% is huge by any reckoning; but when you consider that the underly simply CAN'T tank, then that's HUGE. I've been casting about for something that would give me 'just' 20% per year, so you can see maybe why I'm so excited. I'll answer your other question about a possibly "better way" after dinner. Bfn.
I almost can't go on now, I'm so flabbergasted by those TLT results, but you also asked about shorter timeframe long Calls. Yes. Someone here the other week suggested to me that 100-120DTE Calls were generically 'alright,' that I didn't need to go out a whole year. I knew that, because I'd traded pre- and post-split Nvidia with Monthly Calls (and didn't get out fast enough), and had even been doing Monthlies on GLD. But some experiences there led me to a rule I don't often break now: never less than 3 months. (And ALWAYS 80-delta or higher, I've never strayed from that It's definitely a sweet-spot for risk, capital efficiency, and probability of profit.) So when that guy said 100-120 days, I began to embrace that. I have a "5 ETF" portfolio going in Paper Money since Tuesday with 108DTE Calls (and 16-delta shorts), and it did 13.2% in its first week). Also this [FANG Plus portfolio](https://portfolioslab.com/portfolio/fang-plus) I found just last weekend, which has done 6.0% in the same week. (Check out its insanely-good risk numbers.) It's actually surprised me that the stock port underperformed the ETFs. That'll bear watching through coming weeks. So yes, definitely play with 100-120 days for the MUCH better leverage and see what you think. But I'm not overdoing it: if I've got fresh money that needs to go somewhere, then maybe I'm adding it to an already-existing LEAPS Call position. As it decays <100days, probably roll it back out to 80-delta and 120 days (as I currently do with my LEAPS Calls). Hit me back, because this TLT thing is just phenomenal! Take care.
Hi, some great questions here. TLT is an ETF, make no mistake about that. It's an ETF that holds bonds, just like other ETFs hold stock shares or options or whatever. TLT pays a dividend, 4.4% according to Yahoo Finance, which isn't trivial. GENERALLY, you wouldn't want to own a LEAPS Call on an ETF that pays a dividend (or at least one as high as the risk-free rate, which is the very definition of TLT). Supposedly dividends are "priced in" to the prices of options because of the Black-Scholes model, but I don't know what that means from a practical sense. Just that I'm avoiding LEAPS Calls on (significant) dividend-payers. But let me go have a look: Okay, first of all, TLT isn't going up. And that's my FIRST criterion for an underlying to play. It's down 45% over the past 5 years (weakening dollar?), 11% over the last year, and 3% over the last 6 months. But it seems to be flattening out, and *maybe* it's trying to go up over the last month. But there's a case to be made for an underlying that just doesn't *go down,* as a 'thing' to sell Premium against. So let's look at that: The first (and last) LEAPS expiration is 495DTE. The 75C at 83-delta is selling for **14.48**. That'll be the denominator of our ROI calc, now let's see how much Premium we can sell against it. 33DTE is the first expiration inside the 30-45DTE rule, 10October. The 31-delta 90.5C is selling for 0.72. (I fudged a bit above the 30-delta rule because it's been flat, not going up much to potentially challenge this CC.) ROI: 0.72 / 14/48 = 4.9% That's over 32 calendar days from tomorrow, so divide by 32 and multiply by 365 to approximate: 55% And wow! That's an incredibly solid return! I checked the long Call's date, delta, and price, and 14.48 checks out as the price of a Call >1y our and at least 80-delta. The B/A is pretty tight too here AH: 14/35/14.60 Midpoint is 14.475, so you'd have to pay 14.48. Now let me pick a Call to sell that's farther out in time (less per-day theta) and actually below 30-delta: The 17Oct91C is at 40DTE, 29-delta, and selling for **0.72** (same as the first one, but 1 more week). ROI: (0.72 / 14.48)(365 / 39) = 45% (I used 39DTE because it'll be from tomorrow, Monday, when we could open the trade. And *dang*, my friend, **I think you've FOUND something!** Because if you're selling tickets to people to maybe buy this 'thing' you own for that kind of return, and the "thing's" underlying ticker isn't going down, so the 'thing' itself isn't losing value, then that's a win all around! I MEAN IT, THAT'S NIRVANA! You sell Calls all day long along against a thing that never goes down? You literally can't lose that bet. And all that stuff I said about its 4.4% dividend? Pshhhhhh! What's 4.4% apy against 45% apy? One tenth, that's what.
I am interested in trying this as I am running a leap play on TLT now, which is bonds, not etf. However, what do the returns look like for you on these? Downsides or gotcha you have seen and now know to avoid? Sworn off list of etf you won't touch? Do you find better risk/reward sticking with 2-year 80–90 delta LEAPS (Yuen’s method), or have you experimented with mixing in shorter-dated, high-delta calls (~100DTE) for extra leverage? If so, how do you balance the higher decay risk against capital efficiency?
I’m heading with a long duration bond ETF like TLT. Pays. Nice hefty dividend while I wait for the economy to Significantly weaken further and the unemployment rise to spike, which it will. At which point the Fed will start panic cutting rates and TLT will moon.
Here's the hard part about it. So we are exporting a lot of immigrants, this slows job creation on its own, less people, less gdp, less growth. However, wages are not going up so you're introducing these disinflationary inputs. Bond yields are beginning to fall but they aren't in a clear downtrend yet. The 10 and the 30 I watch on a daily basis. Small caps have also been behaving well. The offset to what Trump posted isn't necessarily A collapse it is sector rotation. It allows rates to fall, home builders to pick up, at least in theory, that first part I posted about immigrants being exported, construction is a sector with a large portion of illegals. You kind of have to piece together your own theories on how this goes because we don't really have a back test. This hasn't been done before. We have tariffs, we have a rapid export process of illegal labor. We do know Trump owns a lot of crypto and wants rates lower. If we look at the recession of 2001 and 2002. You had a new president, massive policy changes, big increase in government spending, sector rotation was underway. Bush had massive interests in oil and gas along with commodities, guess what sector did well for his entire presidency. Trump has a lot of interests in real estate and crypto, both of these benefit from low rates. I think everyone needs to be watching bond yields along with small caps if TLT turns around right where it is, it's just bouncing off daily resistance. However if we break up to 90 and then 92 and there is more slow down talk, we get to $100 by sometime next year. The slow down at that point will be apparent a lot of people in the market are extremely offsides in tech. You see it on here on a daily basis, all the social media posts, lots of regular at home investors are just loaded to the gills with tech. That's not a good look either
I know the goons running the ~~mafia~~ government are doing their damndest to keep 30y bond yields down, but won’t there be a breaking point? Inflation going to keep rising and interest rate cuts on top…Why shouldn’t I full port into TLT puts?
Not too late for them to liquidate TLT and double down on their AMD LEAPs
Makes me feel better about losing $30 on $TLT.
*TLT + Gold are the only friends that won’t betray you when Powell inevitably speed-runs us back into inflation hell.*
Give me some TLT action. Been bag holding.
If they show up, they'll treat TLT like Old yeller.
Just because the Fed cuts rates doesn’t mean long rates go down. End of August we saw massive dumping of long bonds and steepening of the yield curve. TLT has inherent risks.
Just read my old comments that I moved all my QQQ to TLT at $85.25, 6000 shares, holding long against the Redditian’s fear!
If you do not take calculated decisions to rebalance, you will realize the issue. You should educate yourself to properly allocate and rebalance for better return. There are plenty of ways to achieve a better returns. One simple example: Have 35% SPY, 35% QQQ and 30% TLT. If spy drops 5%, rebalance portfolio with same 35:35:30, otherwise hold as is. If spy reaches 40%, the reset to same 35:35:30 ratio. You will be fine in the long run.