TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
-60.00% Today
Reddit Posts
+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
TLT or KO or MCD if you want low volatility.
How the fuck is TLT and LQD providing the same yield? According to the Fed, the credit spread should be about 0.8% [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM)
Man TLT is really getting ass blasted
Sold covered calls on TLT just to watch underlying plummet 🤣 🤡
Never sell if you are underinvested. If you had 500k or so I’d consider trimming 20% now for the next 3 years, then wait for a bear market to buy back in. You can hide out in TLT while you wait.
This dynamic only gets interesting if 10's can pop over 4.2 because the QQQ/TLT tandem doesn't work as it did during the inflation concerns era. That dance got a lot harder after the regional bank festival in early 2023.
if TLT goes to 25 within a year, you would have been better off just buying ramen right now because those puts would be paying out in worthless currency.
How low can TLT go, I wonder? If foreign nations dump US treasuries, can it go to like 25? Might buy some puts dated like 1 year out at 75 or so if shtf they could print.
Probably my job. I sold all my short-dated silver options, and am sitting on a strangle until March. Also watching to see what TLT does. Second time in three days it bounced off 88.50. So, I bought another weekly call near the bottom. Long bonds are my biggest baghold but it could be far worse.
TLT is tough for me to figure out sometimes. It'll go up as interest rates decrease, but it will go down if there is fear of inflation. It also tends to trade against the market movement. So, to answer your question, I have no idea
SPY green now but HYG and TLT still red 🚨
It's a very weird day, small caps ripping but TLT and HYG down
Hugh Hendry said to buy TLT at 92 🤡🤡🤡
Looks like SLV wants to goon around 52 today, will see how it plays out. The real question becomes if it falls back to 51 or 50. TLT gave yesterday's gains so that's going to suck. At least I have some puts to offset loss.
7% (maybe 6 now, stock has gone up a touch). I'm with you, I've got a nice chunk in Pfizer. Not many high dividends out there with possible upside to the stock. For op, I've also got some Pimpco etfs (blend of corporate and gov debt; investment grade, but they blend in some high yield in different etfs) paying around 4.5-6% yield. I also have some TLT, but that's got some volatility to it.
Anyone smell the money printer? I just saw the fed just published a special military operation 🤡 Is my TLT going to moon 👀
I just back tested my own trading logic,when sell QQQ, buy GLD or TLT and vice versa. QQQ&TLT combination gives 179% and QQQ&GLD gives 206% in 365 days. I did not mix two etfs or three etfs combined testing (not so much interested). Here are some results (formatted here https://imgur.com/jOLWKKr), same in text SYMBOL SL\_NO TRANSDATE TRADE TRADE\_QTY TRADE\_PRICE TRADE\_AMOUNT OPEN\_QTY OPEN\_CASH CLOSE\_QTY CLOSE\_CASH COMMENTS \----- ------- ------------ ----- --------- ----------- ------------- -------- ------------- --------- ------------- --------------- GLD 1 04-DEC-24 Sell 0 244.67 .00 0 .00 0 10000.00 Sell GLD QQQ 2 04-DEC-24 Buy 19 523.15 9939.85 0 10000.00 19 9939.85 Buy QQQ QQQ 3 06-DEC-24 Sell 19 526.32 10000.08 19 10000.08 0 10060.23 Sell QQQ GLD 4 06-DEC-24 Buy 41 242.95 9960.95 0 10060.23 41 9960.95 Buy GLD GLD 5 08-APR-25 Sell 41 275.15 11281.15 41 11281.15 0 21341.38 Sell GLD QQQ 6 08-APR-25 Buy 51 415.22 21176.22 0 21341.38 51 21176.22 Buy QQQ QQQ 7 23-SEP-25 Sell 51 598.13 30504.63 51 30504.63 0 30669.79 Sell QQQ GLD 8 23-SEP-25 Buy 88 346.59 30499.92 0 30669.79 88 30499.92 Buy GLD SYMBOL SL\_NO TRANSDATE TRADE TRADE\_QTY TRADE\_PRICE TRADE\_AMOUNT OPEN\_QTY OPEN\_CASH CLOSE\_QTY CLOSE\_CASH COMMENTS \----- ------- ------------ ----- --------- ----------- ------------- -------- ------------- --------- ------------- --------------- TLT 1 04-DEC-24 Sell 0 94.06 .00 0 .00 0 10000.00 Sell TLT QQQ 2 04-DEC-24 Buy 19 523.15 9939.85 0 10000.00 19 9939.85 Buy QQQ QQQ 3 06-DEC-24 Sell 19 526.32 10000.08 19 10000.08 0 10060.23 Sell QQQ TLT 4 06-DEC-24 Buy 106 94.38 10004.28 0 10060.23 106 10004.28 Buy TLT TLT 5 08-APR-25 Sell 106 88.13 9341.78 106 9341.78 0 19402.01 Sell TLT QQQ 6 08-APR-25 Buy 46 415.22 19100.12 0 19402.01 46 19100.12 Buy QQQ QQQ 7 23-SEP-25 Sell 46 598.13 27513.98 46 27513.98 0 27815.87 Sell QQQ TLT 8 23-SEP-25 Buy 311 89.33 27781.63 0 27815.87 311 27781.63 Buy TLT
>and all new debt would be financed at a lower rate. Financing rates at the long end of the curve are based on demand not the Fed. Demand is low when considering 1) how high debt and deficits are 2) the Fed reducing the duration of its bond portfolio 3) the prospect of systemically higher inflation that may destroy real returns (aka make duration riskier than alternatives). This generally means rates on the long end may go up rather than down, and that is detrimental to the returns of TLT. I think the biggest factor over the short term is the Fed to be honest, they are rolling duration shorter, and that reduces demand on the long end of the curve, which means rates will go up. Additionally, since the Fed will be buying more short term, and the TGA rebuild will effectively all be short term, and considering stablecoin demand for short term, I expect short rates will be much lower soon as demand rises for the short end of the curve. If you are deadset on playing rates, I'd be targeting 7 or less years in duration, probably 4 years or less to be specific. Not financial advice, etc.
Wouldn’t that make something like TLT desirable? +20 year bonds that already pay over 4% and all new debt would be financed at a lower rate.
Oh boy, even TLT not getting much of a bid. That's stagflationy. Not good.
Think of the bond market like a seesaw: when people dump treasuries, the immense supply forces prices down, which automatically pushes yields up. If the EU dumps, long-term bond funds (like TLT) would get absolutely hammered because they are stuck holding older, lower-paying paper that nobody wants anymore. SGOV is different because it has zero commitment issues. It holds bills that mature in 0-3 months, so it barely flinches at price drops because the duration is so short. Instead of your principal tanking, SGOV just rolls over into those new, higher-yielding bills almost immediately. You wouldn’t see a price crash; you’d just see your monthly payout go up while long-term holders weep.
It will hit hit the fan across all assets except perhaps gold. And maybe crypto? It truly is a nuclear option if EU dumps their treasuries. Prices down, yield up, who will blink? Who will buy? A shitshow. When you invest in a bond fund (SGOV, TLT etc) there is no concept of holding to maturity. If the market price of bonds drops, then the NAV of the fund drops and you may not ever get your principal back.
Silver had a scary overnight dip but is looking ok premarket now. TLT is still down so I might DCA in some more. Will see how it plays out.
Welp, TLT is a double-edged sword. Glad I had puts on-hand. Spunoff another SLV leap and have delta-neutral'd my port. NWL had a good runup today.
Buying the dip in the biggest scams (corn and TLT)
TLT testing 89 again. Not great Bob!
Big ass head and shoulders on TLT lmao
Okay so I should’ve been a bit more clear I’m realistically looking at this as a IV play I don’t see TLT going to 100 that’s just hype, but I do see IV increasing and boosting my position with a conservative price target of $93 before February & 10% IV gain I will be looking at a 75% profit all I need is a dovish shift towards QE with a rate cut. FOMC will give me clarification on if this will be possible and when fed updates balance sheet, if I see it happening in a longer term Horizion I’ll roll these until 2027 and cut the play off completely if sentiment moves against me
You sound extremely confident for someone trading TLT like it’s a meme stock... Just a quick reality check, alright... . Two rate cuts before March isn’t a forecast, it’s a kids fantasy... Even the Fed doesn’t project that path unless the economy shows recession-level weakness... If we actually get two cuts that fast, the move in TLT won’t be a "slingshot" like what you said, it’ll be a market-wide credit stress signal... . TLT isn’t GME... This is a long-duration bond ETF. It moves with macro data, not Reddit enthusiasm... Anyone expecting explosive upside from 78 contracts is misunderstanding how slow bonds reprice unless yields collapse. Also averaging up on dips isn't a strategy, it’s a confession of no risk framework... Professionals add after confirmation, not during volatility spikes. . Your 'hedge' with short-term puts won’t save you... If your sizing is off, that hedge is cosmetic. Bond volatility cuts both ways, and long-dated calls plus short-term puts is not a hedge, it’s bi-directional gambling... Also loading another 50 calls if IV drops below 4% tells me you’re trading options on vibes, not fundamentals... Long-term yields don’t fall because you want them to... They fall because the macro breaks... . Listen kid, TLT can pay but not the way you’re imagining... Bond markets reward patience, structure, and macro literacy… not enthusiasm...
TLT dropping and forming head and shoulders pattern on the three month. Unless the feds unzip their pants and fully load long term treasuries with money printing, looks like yields on the long end are about to spike! At some point those long term rates are going to snap the back of the housing market without intervention. An interesting balancing act; pump LTTs and inflation skyrockets? Let it break for deflationary death spiral? Hell we haven’t even had layoffs surge nor an oil spike yet! Is gold and cash the only things that are going to saving me? Fun times 😂 Fantastic buying opportunity. I’m leveraging up along the way till I hit 10% margin
TLT is the only bond fund that I like and that acts like a hedge looking back at the charts.
Im a TLT bull buuuut I could see a nasty shakeout before it moons. Thinking double top on the ten year so TLT could make its way back to the 82s
VTI: 40% KMLM: 20% DBMF: 20% GLDM: 10% TLT: 10% Gets close to S&P returns with 1/3 the drawdown. https://testfol.io/?s=5lit5gboz6a
The easiest to go is choose ETFs, VOO, QQQ, SMH and some bonds (TLT side), may be 25% each. I do not prefer crypto side, ignoring it.
FWIW: My positions are $SPY 660 P 1/30. Also have some $TLT calls and HYG puts with March expiration. I don't think I have posted this since my resurrection. I will post all trades as they happen.
I am dumbfounded how bad streaming commercials are. Commercials used to be banging. [Free Credit Repot Dot Com](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tloVHJtrJ_k) WTF happened to marketing? Positions TSLA, TLT, SPY
TLT usually goes up if there's a war
Bond yields control everything. Yields up → TLT down, tech down, gold weak, dollar up. Yields down → TLT up, tech up, gold strong, dollar down. Gold rises on falling real yields. Oil follows supply/demand. Defense stocks follow budgets, not war hype.
Listen up, chucklefucks. The pedo files are required by law to be released 12/19. War won't start UNTILL that week. RTX and ONDS calls for 12/26 PUTS on TLT and CALLS on GLD as oil, gold, and bond yields all about to go to Valhalla (i'm told this is in the sky, but need to do more research). I would saw get some SQQQ calls too... but I'm not confident enough that AI trade wont just keep ballooning away as we slide into a second WW2 (might be called WW2^(2) ?) Good luck, we're all counting on you.
Ok. Ramp in hedges as your portfolio grows. KMLM, TLT, GLD. Then, when you approach your target; start siphoning high risk plays and leverage into VOO. My number is 2M an here’s how I’ll be allocated when I hit that: 5% speculative, 15% leveraged SPY (UPRO or similar), 50% hedge (TLT, KMLM, GLD, Cash, and 30% VOO.
TLT down 0.69% today….long term yields going up. I’m curious to see what the treasury market does….if short term rates dump, and inflation expectations go up, that means long term rates go up. If deflationary death spiral then long term rates go down. If we money print our way to victory the feds will force long term yields to go down by mass purchasing LTT and force Americans to pay via inflation; their chosen poison pill
TLT might pop if jobs data comes in weak.
Port update: long IBIT, MSFT, NVDA, GOOG; short SLV, GLD, TLT
Congrats Boys. Unless you are posting from a psych ward, prison, the afterlife. You survived another holiday alone. I am proud of you. Everything is temporary. This too shall pass. Positions: TSLA, TLT, SPY
Everyone here is a gangsta MF warren buffet investing and trading god. Just because you got the knowledge now means squat shit. Everyone gangsta now when the markets and economy keep booming for the past 10 years. Even during the pandemic, everything still went up in the shortest time in the history of the stock markets. 99.9% compare knowledge about some generic ETF DCA weight average mumbo jumbo with FAs. What you are paying for is not for the FAs knowledge ffs. Most FAs probably know less than the average reddit user here. You are paying for two things: 1) Experience - It takes a certain set of skills and experience to be able to properly set up a portfolio for each individual and family. You have to piece together everything from investments, insurances, cash flow planning and even trust nominations. 2) Time - I am sure you can cook instant noodles, eggs and other stuff for sustenance, but do you really want to do it everyday? When you pay a FA, make sure your time is better spent elsewhere that is important in your life. Ultimately, no one fucking knows where the market is headed to tomorrow, next month, next year or the next decade. Sure you can make some trend recognition, but NO ONE knows. All you can hope for is that you catch the right wave. Be clear in what you are paying for with a FA. The knowledge to trade and investing can be learnt in a week, but when the shit hits the fan, you did wish that bought some puts or TLT ( just an example, chill guys )
Today was solid. Rode the TLT dump to the bottom, flipped my puts into calls and bought another share. Once it got to above 90.50, reloaded my protective puts. I rolled my silver calls for additional money, added some puts near the top for additional protection. Am continuing to harvest theta for slow but steady gains.
Yes, I am aware of FED control, but TLT provides monthly 0.33 dividend and has growth when stocks are coming down. Still this is winning path while stocks drawing down.
This is correct, Bond is the way to go. BTW: Bagholder of TLT/TMF - biased, but I will make money like I did in Jan-Apr 2025 simply 27% return from TMF alone !
Welp, I got greedy with TLT. I will see how it holds tomorrow, and decide whether to roll my puts or my calls. Silver continues to print.
The thing that really turned the tide in the latter half of 2023 was Yellen changed the way she was funding bills after rates spent the better part of 3 months zooming higher. It really pantsed people and yes, it mattered even though policy rate stayed stagnant until September last year. But what's also worth noting is that the QQQ/TLT correlation in regards to inflation concerns failed after regional bank fest occurred in early 2023. It only started working again in that stretch as that rate move was too quick (big rate movements on both sides can be an issue), and it generally hasn't worked well for a while. There are occasional signs of it working again over the past few months, but it's not at a point where it's usable...if the Nasdaq has topped, it's on OpenAI concerns instead of macro fundie concerns (rates).
Glad I bought the dip for TLT last week. Funny how quickly the rate cut narrative flips.
If the fed is going to implement a yield curve control you should go long TLT or IEF before it's priced in. (It's getting priced in...)
If you think nominal rates are going to drop then you want to be long TLT…
True wall street boy you are! If you short TLT and buy SPY calls Jan 2026, easy way to blow your account !! Good luck !!!
I completely understand any long term bull that waited until Thursday or Friday to BTD on $QQQ when it pulled back to its 100 DMA. That was waiting to BTD if you are bullish. But these gamblers like that guy that likes things rammed up his ass that proclaims buying every ant sized 1% dip are going to get slaughtered. To be clear here, shorting $QQQ and $NVDA makes up less than 20% of my port. This is a trade, not a bearish buy & hold forever. I hold 2x more of each cash, gold & $TLT than my current short ETF trade positions.
SPY up TLT up DXY up JNK up Perfectly normal!
global index, emerging markets, healthcare and TLT
I humbly suggest with Thanksgiving coming, call someone who has no family, or has had a loss. To say hey I was thinking of you. I am not saying invite them. I am saying a lot of people have no one to check on them. check on people is good thing. Positions: TSLA, TLT, SPY Be safe. Hydrate. Don't get arrested.
Watching TLT creep up, now pricing the odds of a rate cut at 75%. From 28% last week, this is wild. Still working to accumulate.
I miss the records/poster store in Bergenfield. Positions TSLA, NET and TLT, yes I am old as dirt.
I like the way you think but Wall Street just doesn’t give enough of a F about that stuff. Good point about TLT though, I’m holding a bit.
It was a real ride but very educational. NVDA had the best quarter they've ever had, maybe better than anybody has ever had, and the market finished down on high volume. Look at TIP, TLT, PG, and KO, though-- they were slightly up as big tech got smashed. Treasuries and boring dividend payers. This market wants to go down.
FYI the government job report was for September and its 50/50 at best, private data from ADP for October released weeks ago wasn’t that great either. If you get market crash vibes at SPX shavin’ off 1.5pp, consider TLT or smth idk Expected positive news > sell offs due to take profits. I’m pretty sure it was already mentioned but I’ll repeat for just in case. Good luck hunting out there
And yet TLT is up, which pretty much disproves your theory. I don't know why markets tanked, but it wasn't nvidia, or jobs, or fed rate cuts. My best guess is it was Trump threatening to kill democrats... which comes on top of him telling a reporter "quiet piggy" and sitting next to MBS (who chopped up a journalist) and referring to him as a great guy. **I think the market is starting to price in the 25th Amendment being used.** The markets tanked right when that story broke. It's the only thing that correlates.
That is my intention. If you are interested "watch See TLT and TMF where it goes before Jan 26, 2026" Otherwise, ignore this as noise. Good Luck!
Why short the market, better to go for BOND ETFs like TLT or VGLT or SPTL BTW: Holding only TLT in my retirement accounts and TMF in Roth Accounts until the market turmoil over ! Will cash out around Jan 26, 2026 and move to QQQ & TQQQ. See TLT and TMF where it goes before Jan 26, 2026. RemindMe! Jan 28, 2026 FOMC meeting !
Once the $SPY reaches its 200 DMA I start to add. Until then I will continue to trade the $SQQQ and short Scam Altman's fave stocks with inverse ETF's. I did add a bit to $TLT this week. J-Pow will be forced to cut interest rates in December. The Fed always cuts with rising unemployment and a tanking stock market.
> VIX is more than 20 That only applies to S&P 500 index funds. The value of VIX has no bearing on GLD, or TLT, or VNQ, or KWEB, and many other ETFs you can trade options on. > Delta between 0.80 and 0.95 I wouldn't use "between." Something in the neighborhood of 80 delta, but more importantly, whatever delta has the leverage factor you are looking for. Like if you are trying to get 4x leverage on some ETF that is $100/share, you're going to want to pay something around $25/share in premium. That might be 90 delta or that might be 75 delta, depending. If it's 75 delta, that means you are getting 4x leverage on a position that is equivalent to 75 shares. Since that trade meets all your criteria, you shouldn't ignore it just because it's below 80 delta. > Go deep ITM That's already covered by the delta target. In the neighborhood of 80 delta is always deep ITM, by definition. So you can omit this rule. > Expiration date: at least 1 year I don't know why that matters. If you find the perfect trade that is only 11 months to expiration, are you going to ignore it? It's more important to pay for an expiration you can afford and that also gives your trade enough runway to reach its profit target. Hard-and-fast arbitrary rules like "> 1 year" are silly. > Liquidity: highly liquid stocks or ETFs. This allow you to easily enter and exit. To be clear, it's not the liquidity of the *shares* that matters, it's the liquidity of the option contracts. And all the previous rules, like 80 delta, contradict this rule. You are rarely going to find 80 delta and 1 year+ calls that are highly liquid. > IV (Implied Volatility): Should be low to get better prices. How low? This should REPLACE that VIX rule, since it is the more general case of the VIX rule and applies to all ETFs, not just S&P 500 ETFs. How low? That's a topic of active debate in the option trading community, but a general rule of thumb is that, ideally, present IV should be lower than the 52-week trailing average IV. Or you can use IV Rank of less than 50% or IV Percentile of less than 50%, which are just slightly different ways to look at trailing 52-week averages.
Expecting this, Moved all my retirement accounts fund to TLT yesterday (guessed my last chance to stay calm) !
Microstrategy liquidates around 70k right? That would cause another SVB event. Fed will have to bailout crypto. So TLT should be going down but we will see.
Is bitcoin and TLT in the drivers seat? Huh
I am learning this as I go, but I figure I'll hedge. I'll have two months of dividend payout and OTM CCs. So I hedge the position w/ 3 puts expiring the 12th. If there is a rate cut, TLT goes back to its October high, and the improved nav and and dividends offset my puts going worthless. If there is no rate cut, my puts offset the paper loss of my shares, and let me DCA down.
I like TLT because of its monthly dividend payout as well as its flexible option chain. I bought my first batch of shares in October alongside several protective puts, and have been selling said puts to DCA in.
Unless what’s been happening in spec tech rehabilitates itself by 2025 end (ARKK is what to watch here), something that’s 2022 esque might be inescapable from the Nasdaq. And before you ask, the main concern isn’t inflation and rate hikes (labor market), though I will freshly admit we may be slowly, but ever so surely seeing a turn with how the Nasdaq has traded off interest rate movements back to where it was when inflation was concerning. It’s not “there” as of now, but you’ve been seeing a few more days lately with TLT and QQQ down.
Only red I can find in the world tonight is MSFT UNH and TLT
I’m planning to wait for the upcoming Non Farm. If the data looks bad, I might consider parking more money into Treasury ETFs like TLT. Trump bought some treasuries throughout this year, and I think it’s a solid move
I’m going to wait for Non-farm… if it is bad, i might park more money to treasuries ETF such as TLT. Trump bought some treasuries throughout this year and i think it’s a good move
I’ve seen enough. TLT and chill
Can’t wait to see the complete destruction this bubble pop has on asset prices, energy prices; we are in for an insane reckoning that will lead to deflation and fed intervention. TLT all the way baby.
Well that depends: there are two markest in Bonds Primary and Secondary Yes if we hold bonds and never sell them (Buy them from the Govt at auction (the Primary market) yes you are correct but in the secondary market already existing bonds are traded (aha). When the fed drops the overnight rate, the already existing longer term bonds become more valuable because the holders of them have a higher yield than the same bonds the Goverment is selling in the Primary market (for same maturity date), and so people who want higher yield will try to buy those to get that higher yiled than those new treasuries being auctuoned off by the US Treasury and so the secondary market's bond prices increase, there is even a formula: each 1% drop in the overnight rate the 20 yrs bonds increase in value by approx 16% or a 25basis point gives a 4% increase Buying the TLT ETF well before rate cutting cycle starts, investors can make impressive returns on longer term Bonds and sell the TLT as they peak once the interest rate cutting cycle is done. Go look at the TLT chart and you will see this happening.
Sell this and go for TLT calls January 16 $100 strike price You won’t regret it 😉😉
TLT got wrecked in 2022 . I personally don’t trust that one since
JAAA maybe - historically it has been pretty safe - but there are some warning signs in private credit (eg the implosion of Tricolor) that would make me hesitant to use it replace SGOV. Maybe a partial allocation? I have also thought about making a small allocation to TLT which might benefit more from deflationary pressure during a recession, but don’t feel like I understand enough about how the long bond market operates to understand wether that upside is worth the added volatility despite similar yield.
The good thing about the -0.15 delta is that is automatically adjusts the strike price farther out during periods of high volatility. Also with high IV I'm getting larger credits. All of these underlyings trade differently and some of the lower liquidity and lower IV names (like TLT and XLU) are not as profitable. However, I do include them in the method in order to have some underlying diversification. I see what you are saying about looking for support levels that have historically held, but I don't feel technical analysis has benefited me much in the past. I think the Black-Scholes model and market forces are more likely to get me the appropriate strike price to achieve the 85% winning percentage that I'm looking for. I have not tracked assignment rates because I never get assigned with this method. I'll close them out immediately at a 200% loss or when the trade moves ITM. Or I'll close them on expiration Friday so my assignment risk is 0. I have tried around 70 names over the last five years and I find that these 12 work the best in terms of aggregate profit.
Everbody gangsta until hedging with TLT isn't working