iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Does starting a position in $TLT make sense this week?
Expected moves: SPY, XLF, KRE, TLT, and Earnings from Adobe and FedEx
Why SVB is just the beginning, Analysis of the fall of SVB from a Financial Analyst
If the recession everyone is talking about comes, would there be potential capital gains from owning long-dated bonds?
Can anyone ELI5 how to get exposure to the 40 part of the 60/40 portfolio?
Weekly traders: Do you have a profit percentage where you close the trade?
Wall Street Newsletter S02E07 : Why is there such a disconnect b/w Stock and Bond market?
2023-02-14 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Few thoughts on how to position yourself if this turns out to be another bear rally
If a bond fund's average maturity date should match my investment horizon, should I be swapping bond ETFs every 10 years as my retirement age approaches?
Do Treasury index funds like $TLT move inversely with rate, similarly to treasuries themselves?
The treasury market is severely mispricing higher for longer rates, giving regards awesome opportunity
The treasury market is severely mispricing higher for longer rates, giving regards awesome opportunity
$PG and why it is the most overvalued stock in the market right now
$PG and why it's the most overvalued company right now
when you buy TLT 104 FDs like a moron @0.04 and it works
Anyone loading up on long bonds in anticipation of recession and rate cuts?
⚜️⚜️ Gold-BBY: Will Gold Outperform Other Asset Classes Again In 2023??
⚜️⚜️ Gold-BBY: Will Gold Outperform Other Asset Classes Again In 2023??
How does this EMP look in terms of stability and viability?
Why this is a weird time and the market is erratic and volatile
What are the bear arguments for long term bond etfs like TLT or TMF?
2022-11-28 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
The Recession has already happened, and you missed it - Part 2
2022-11-15 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
If you think drawdown in TLT was bad, check Austria's 100 years bond.
JEPI (JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF ) 10% yield...seems too good to be true.
Why does a U.S long-term treasury bond ($TLT, $VUSTX) smoothly go up regardless of the market condition and Fed rate?
Financial Times article about 'vicious circle' (bonds)
Concerns about 2008 re-run / credit freeze up (FT.com)
Replay of 2008 coming? Doesn't look good IMHO.
The bond market is literally imploding, equities are guaranteed to also implode soon enough
Oil crashing is great for the Nasdaq; watch for VIX and TLT spikes up
Understanding the current macro environment + capitulation play
Half of y'all are the equivalent of a German living in Berlin during April 1945, read the room and make money from it
Best Treasury bond ETF to buy right before the Fed slashes rates from 4.5% to 0%? Why isn't TLT performance inverted vs SHY this year?
Bond ETF valuation mechanics not behaving, any ideas why?
Expected moves this week. TLT, QQQ, Autozone, FedEx, Costco.
Inverse relationship between SPX and TLT appears to have ended its long run.
What are peoples thoughts on the ten year treasury?
The Treasury Market is fucking nuts right now and everyone is focused on equities, degenerate profits can be made
QQQ, TLT, and bitcoin down big on Friday but oil stabilizing
TLT, HYG, JNK, & LQD: Bond Market Sell Off & Fed Reaction/ Discussion
People who understand bonds/TLT, what are they telling us about the existing/upcoming market and do they have the potential to spike again
Is anyone else extremely tempted to go big on put options for Faze Clan with the after-hours rally?
IV Is Pretty Cheap On Treasuries Despite Recent Volatility
With a good PCE is TLT/TMF a good buy right now?
The $IWM : $TLT spread has a consolidating range
Both bonds and gold have been resisting the last few days of selling, and if March 2020 is anything to go by, that is a very good sign for the market.
What do TLT and BND track. Is it bond prices or bond yields?
Disagree. With a 25 basis point rate hike TLT has come off low’s and gone from the low 90s to 105. If anything else in the economy breaks bond traders are going to assume that we’re getting back to lower for longer and you might see TLT at 120 in the next three months.
TLT calls were not the play. smh.
Well in theory S&P and TLT are not correlated. Long term treasuries had its worst year in its over 100 year history and coincided with the major pullback in the S&P.
Thats useful. That shows S&P500, Gold, TLT are not correlated. Which supports my thesis. I'll have a look around it to see if I can add others. The stock based ETFs on that list all look correlated to S&P500 though.
Regards losing hundreds a week while I sit back and make $300-500 on selling TLT puts ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)
TLT dips all get bought (X) Doubt
My TLT sold puts this week gonna yield me another $300 This trade is making me a fortune ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)
Maybe maybe not JPOW needs his crash to get things fixed. Fed put us not at 4000 how many times I got to say it. QQQ follows TLT
TLT DRILLING BuH lEtS BiD TeCh To Da MoOn 🤡
Holy shit, TLT falling off a cliff the last two hours.
Eyeing TLT as it drifts lower, may start entering TLT calls if it drops below 103.
Current positions. Synthetic long on rocket lab Sold 10 $4p 2025 bought 10 5c 2025 Own 1000 shares of rocket lab at $4 basis. Own 100 shares of UWMC at $5 basis Own 10 2025 $5c on UWMC Own 10 $7.5c on GETY 2025 Own 140 shares of spy 100 shares of rivian at $19(my current loser) Been wheeling TLT up about $4000 this month. Sold 10 $103.5p expiring this Friday. Will be my 3rd round of theta on this earning me the above amount. Cash sidelined $120,000
I have 1500 shares of TLT at 98 cost, bought 15 $100 Dec puts and sold 15 $120 Dec calls when it was at $108 as a protective collar.
Long TLT and long BOIL, am I regarded?
This is exactly what I do. I hold SGOV in my margin account and sell OTM puts on SPY and TLT. In my Fidelity IRA accounts, I do the same thing while my cash is in SPAXX.
Cool one. Initially I thought LEAPs were for communists, that's why I've asked. My father is long TLT OTM LEAPs, like he's out of his mind, and I'm always telling him: "you're a commie" (that's short for common stocks).
TLT down almost 2%![img](emote|t5_2th52|18632)
TLT about to cause a Taper Tantrum
I feel as of recent it has inversed. Yields are dying so it should be declining but I assume flights to bonds from equities is a safety move that is causing it to pump. I also think it is bulls trying to essentially call bluff on rates moving forward. TLT should be dying though imo.
Traditionally TLT dying should be associated with SPY dying?
This goldfish market is so fucking reTororo Ted, something is about to break bad. TLT 140C 9/19
Full 401k TLT tomorrow at open and walk away for a few months.
Wanna thank whoever bought my TLT puts last week. About to make another $300 in premium hitting the sell button.
TLT is paying on volatility. Enter a 3.00 GTC limit CALL order at 104.5 , wait for it to hit then ride to 107, sell, rinse, repeat. Not doing PUTs, because when SPX crashes TLT won't stop.
If you want to inverse me, buy puts ATM on SPY, QQQ, and TLT.
$SPY $SPX $ES_F Does this rally have legs? Letter for Monday with actionable levels and plan for tomorrow. https://spyoptions.substack.com/p/monday-mar-27-2023-spy-spx-es-actionable-b71?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf Plan, prepare, trust the levels. $QQQ $VIX $TLT $DXY
Rally time for [$SPY](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24SPY&src=cashtag_click) but does it have legs? Actionable levels out for Monday, today's trade recap and plan for next week! Get some rest, get off the computer![https://open.substack.com/pub/spyoptions/p/monday-mar-27-2023-spy-spx-es-actionable?r=25hqxu&utm\_campaign=post&utm\_medium=web](https://open.substack.com/pub/spyoptions/p/monday-mar-27-2023-spy-spx-es-actionable?r=25hqxu&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web) [$SPX](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24SPX&src=cashtag_click) [$ES\_F](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24ES_F&src=cashtag_click) [$QQQ](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24QQQ&src=cashtag_click) [$VIX](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24VIX&src=cashtag_click) [$TLT](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24TLT&src=cashtag_click) [$DXY](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24DXY&src=cashtag_click)
Just barely. TLT 0DTE puts 107p .30 -> .67 avg Also did well on the 106.5ps .19->.36 avg
TLT is calling bullshit on SPY right now, kinda funny.
two things, i would prefer to own FAS if only able to choose one ticker that picks up the entire large cap banking sector rebound and secondly, as a whole the banking sector is much larger than some long bonds that happen to be under water at present but will rebound as the TLT rebounds. ​ But it isnt the large caps where the biggest returns will be
TLT should be at 109-110 by now. Just picked up $1k of 3/31 and 4/21 calls.
Buy 1 share of SPY, 1 of QQQ, 1 of IWM, 1 share of a quality REIT like O (Realty lncome) and stop. Once a week, transfer what you safely can to your account, even if it is just $50, until you have enough added to buy 1 share of TLT. Keep doing adding to the account, doing what you reasonably can to maintain the proportions until your account balance is $5000. If you can't maintain a discipline this basic you'll know that options will eat you alive, without wasting the money to discover that the hard way. Then repeat again until the total is $25000. Then, finally start adding cash until you have $5000 to work with, which will be your stake. Between now and then, absorb everthing you can about options selling. Once you are ready, find a stock you want to buy that trades for no more than $50. Write 4-week a cash-covered put 10% below whatever the current price is. If the put ends up exercised, congrats, you just paid 10% less for a stock you wanted anyways, and were paid for your trouble. If the put isn't exercised, you pocked that cash. Then repeat, saving up cash as necessary for the next play. Don't keep buying the same stock, move between tickets and industries. If you do this with decent companies and are appropriately diversified, for your entire life, then you dripped into the market for 10% than everybody else. Do that for 30 years and you win all the toys.
As a bear, just warning you guys it’s going up short term. Yellen just blessed another regard run up. Bullish short term. Buying TLT shares over the next few weeks as my bear play.
Ignore the noise (tech) Trust XLF, KRE, and TLT Nothing else matters
The problem with analyzing TLT based on its own historical data is that the micro rate environment for almost the entire history (since 2002) was an anomaly. There are lots of data points during that history when rates did practically nothing, meaning TLT did not move a bunch. Now we are in a normal rate environment with the added fun that nobody knows which way rates are going in the future. There are just as many people saying more rate hikes are necessary as there are saying rate cuts are the way to go. ​ I wonder what the analysis looks like when you cut the history to just the last 2-3 years.
If ya'll were wondering why I had a hate boner for TLT I opened 100x 1dte 104P @.12 at close lol. Sold this morning @ 0.20 Cheers lol not worth the stress for a regardo play.
I would to unspeakable things if TLT somehow opened up below 104 🤡
I have very strict stop losses in place. Won't wait till TLT reaches 85. The concept is that with the "no lose" since 1 year, 10 year, since inception strikes, you are making use of the probabilities that the strike has not breached those levels in those time periods. It is a patent pending technique.
I just made 5% in less than 30 days with TLT bond etf
What do you mean that strike is 89.47? You sold a 90 put in anticipation of TLT staying above 90 and bought the 85 as insurance that you would not get clobbered if long term interest rates go up steeply. If TLT falls to 85, you lose $49200; is that right?
I'd have to agree with you but what ends up happening I think with TLT is anytime there's any panic in this short term people run to it for safety so it's almost like there's an artificial higher floor temporarily
I hope to god he is wrong. Based on today I am 99% sure he is. But get any real bank stress (always a risk. Always) and it would be possible. TLT puts cheap insurance. Sept ITM
It is true that bank liquidity issues and concerns about credit risk can lead to investors selling stocks and buying government bonds. However, I believe the Federal Reserve will take steps to prevent a sharp decline in the stock market or a major spike in bond yields. Therefore, I would not recommend investing in TLT leaps at this time.
Bank liquidity issues = flight to treasuries. Plus bond bros pricing in higher credit risk. I have TLT leaps just in case credit markets break and fed has to cut ahead of schedule 🤷🏼♀️
I kinda think the banks are still an issue considering that TLT, the US2Y, and the DXY all don't match up with the idea that today was hawkish. Yellen was testifying at the same time as Powell's press conference and said something that frankly might pour gasoline on the fire with the regional banks on deposits fleeing.
Because TLT is the inverse. It goes up with interest cuts
Why didn't TLT dump as well? No cuts coming soon, possibly another 25bp hike. Should have gone down but why up?
If you are looking for a really solid hedge against inflation coming back, check out $TLT puts. If JPow somehow does pull a Burns, that play will pay nicely. Long end rates would soar. Pure ass hedge.
TLT melting up since morning ![img](emote|t5_2th52|12787)
This is correct. If the Fed raises rates, it will be because inflation expectations are rising, and this will cause the price of TLT to go down as investors seek out higher-yielding assets.
Long duration rates are a function of inflation expectations. If fed raises higher, future inflation expectations are lower, thus TLT should rise. Dovish Fed = TLT price goes down.
I don’t understand how TLT works. Shouldn’t the price be going down if fed is raising rates today?
Nope. I don't even have the balls to yolo on options. I'm playing DRV, TMF and TLT.
I am a random redditor and complete amateur, but here's my thinking on possible outcomes/plays: - Inflation subsides and Fed pivots to stem banking crisis, recession worries: Brokered CDs, 17week - 2year treasuries to lock in rates before they go down - Inflation remains high, Fed remains committed to rate hikes: Shortest duration treasuries (4week), money markets, dollar bullish funds like UUP - Inflation remains high, Fed chickens out (your scenario): Stocks, TIPs, I-Bonds, (maybe) gold and/or BTC, real estate, go short treasuries - Soft landing: Traditional 60/40 - Hard landing and recession: TLT
That's a shit choice i.m.o. until the fed pivots. Short or ultra short bond won't decline in price like TLT if rates keep going up. #SGOV is where my money's at. I'll move to TLT wen pivot.
Debt ceiling anyone? Is that were the puck is going? Is TLT the next big play? If I could figure out a good way to short commercial real-estate I would consider it. But I can't find a real way to short. Problem with all real-estate.
lmao do you pick cherries for a living you hack??? perhaps, the fed can be wrong sometimes. and perhaps they can also change their policy significantly despite previous statements. for example, when they chose to consider 2021 inflation transitory and not hike until march of 2022. The case for the Fed tolerating elevated inflation in the medium-term is plausible: it has become and implicit third mandate in the Fed's mission to ensure the stability of financial markets, and if they're confident inflation won't spiral into double digits albeit persist at an elevated level but they're NOT confident the banking crisis won't become system-threatening, they might be willing to shirk off the inflation-fighting duties for several quarters especially if they can come up with some just-so story. ​ focusing on fixed income losses between march 2021 and march 2022 is brazenly dishonest. march 2022 is when the federal reserve began hiking interest rates, and TLT is down \~33% since december 2021, when the market began suspecting these hikes were coming. From peak to trough it was down 40%. The investors best positioned to benefit from this, like me, were holding short positions against fixed income before december 2021. It's extremely uncharitable to interpret "2021-22" as "march 2021 to march 2022". ​ Gold/crypto are at the very least inflation hedges worth considering. It is true that there is little correlation between gold price appreciation and various historical inflation crises, what seems more apparent are short-term volatility spikes in gold around periods of uncertainty and chaos. Look at option premiums on GLD in the past week or two, or around the period last year when Russia commenced its invasion of Ukraine. For several months in 1980, during a period of economic and geopolitical instability, gold was up about 500% against its price a few years earlier before settling back down. A well-designed gold hedge would probably mean carrying a small position of cheap OTM calls on GLD and selling during short-term periods where gold volatility is temporarily elevated. Bitcoin seems to be experiencing a similar volatility rally right now, but is admittedly a far less promising hedge since it is less of a known quantity and its price seems to be correlated with accommodative monetary policies. ​ but either way, thanks for being an asshole about it
TLT broke 105 lower, VIX broke 22.5
They bought the big boy equivalent of TLT with it and had to dump it at a loss to cover everyone's withdraws
Will today be the day TLT opens red 👀
If you don't want to be a pussy about it, get some TMF or TLT leaps.
I know it is wsb. But have you considered SHY instead? TLT can definitely fall a lot more by end of 2024 and SHY with a shorter duration exposure is maybe much simpler.
I have been wheeling TLT and TIP all 2022. I think it will do ok if stocks crash.
20 year back to 4% so my TLT pouts PRINT ![img](emote|t5_2th52|18632)![img](emote|t5_2th52|18632)
Banks will suffer for some time as long as rates remain elevated, particularly banks that have large unrealized losses since the regulatory environment is likely to turn significantly more hostile. If you think rates are going up buy short duration treasury ETFs. I think there is a good chance for a zero rise on Wednesday and a ~20% chance of a rate cut. I've been buying some TLT in preparation for rates coming down, possibly bigly. The fed is starting to break things and we know the play book for when things go south: rates to zero.
Calls on Truist. Strong regional bank. Should have no issues. Congress considering increased FDIC limit for all banks should help strengthen all bank strength in the short term... Hard to tell what the new banking fees will be like. Banks that also took liquidity will also take a huge hit to profits. I don't think Truist is one of the banks that needs additional liquidity from the Fed, so that should attract money to the stock once the dust finally settles from this mess. Long treasuries... calls on TLT and IEF as well as buying bonds directly in my retirement and savings accounts. Might sell if Congress tries to default in June, but plenty of movement to the upside before then I think.
Market all horny for gold thinking rate hikes will decrease sooner than anticipated and that they can finally find safety in it before The Great Tank 📉 of '24 but they're too early. Rates going to 5.5% at the least (from 4.75% currently) and that's really going to rain on their parade, Q2 will definitely trim their gains. Eyeing UltraShort Gold $GLL next week before JPOW potentially wakes them from their delusions ![img](emote|t5_2th52|12787) This also has implications for $TLT treasuries and 🌽📉. But in late Q3 & beyond, all in 🏆⚱️🔱
Should I buy more TLT?
Thinking TLT puts are the way to go. I am actually long a small amount of actual 20 and 30y treasuries so it could be called a hedge but truthfully I would buy them because I buy the idea that the recent rally across the curve is overdone especially considering the hiking cycle is almost certainly not done.
Agree with MrNotadvice and others- this is a nothing burger. Funds will block redemptions if they haven't already done so. Whether their IPS has provisions for "prudent" risk management and interest rate swaps as a hedge is another matter entirely. Just because your private equity fund sucks doesn't mean you get a "pass" for mainlining duration risk. BTW Blackrock or other Target Date Funds are stuffed to the gills with these things as you get closer to retirement. I do however like the optics here for a potential macro type trade: \- Puts on $TBT / Calls on $TLT \- 120 day DOTM $SPY straddle \- Gold / Silver / Commodities \- Inverse REIT plays, anything inverse corporate real estate Also keep in mind that nearly every Pension fund in America that is either frozen or semi-frozen has been salivating at the idea of closing shop and cashing out participants with annuities. This alone is going to create massive sales in Treasuries (replaced with shorter duration on the annuity side). This being the case, coupled with any phantom drama for redemptions, the Fed may not need to lower rates as the markets will be causing supply to surge regardless.
Why is TLT more popular than IEF?
[Until this goes north above zero, QQQs are a huge trap](https://schrts.co/uYFgbbsj) Be careful out there, every megacap candle is practically above the upper daily BBand. This reeks of OPEX fuckery. Retail has been piling into AAPL and NVDA puts for months, and with the majority of those nuked in MAR, I believe we will finally get the river card for this market. We are in a recessionary market, so the rules are changing, no longer does dollar down = equities up. big funds are rushing to bonds, and gold clear recessionary moves. Retail is still playing by the inflationary rules of rates down, tech up. In a recession, dollar, rates and equities all go down, bonds go up. gold goes up. Also VIX one step closer to working off its negative weekly readings. Your 30+ VIX is coming, the 50 cent guy is not wrong. Magic coin is surprising, but the way i am reading it, there was a crap ton of alt coins out there, chumming for cash, when these magic coin friendly banks and exchanges started to fail, that community is fleeing for the OG, thinking its the AAPL of their market, as its believed that the OG magic coin, even in cold storage still would have some type of value. Think OG magic coin as a block of gold, vs the dog magic alt coin as beanie babies / baseball cards etc. Just a theory. Finally, i would not rule out a 50 point hike. If the FED were to pivot as bulls believe, then why bailout the assets of the banks? IE if you knew ahead of time you were going to stop raising rates or even cut rates down the road, the pricing of those bonds they are bailing out would again rise in price. The way i am seeing it, is that the FED is telling the banks, we are not cutting rates, here is a 2 week window to "exchange your shitty bonds for better shiny bonds at a better rate" because we are not going to pivot down the road until we can kill inflation. A life ring so to speak. I know rising rates goes against the bond buying in a recession, so we are right in that shit storm where anytime the FED rises rates, bonds will fall again, but money will buy the dip. I think the days of a free falling TLT are over.
Clearly in a recession theme now, with Gold and TLT up. But i think i figured out why QQQ is mooning so hard, the pleb robots know that recession type stocks will fair better and need to buy food and stay at home type stocks (alcohol smokes etc) Thus they are also buying "chips" and "apples" and clearly all homes have some sort of "windows or office" in them.
Fake pump. Eventual dump next week for TLT. Get ur pooties in now.