TLT

TreGet234

TLT or 1x inverse spy etf? 🤔

vandalizethethief

LMAO, you are delusional. Look at a chart for FFS and look at the runup over the past few years. Remove AI and its flat to down. Also, inflation? I'm not saying get out it's going to crash tomorrow but a lot of individual stocks are at insanely high volatility versus the VIX. I am almost never a bear but the country is spending like well....Trump. Let's look at tech stocks & US government bonds. Google just started issuing shares for the first time since its IPO, MSFT halted buybacks for AI buildout, Meta and SPCX are renting excess compute to OpenAI and Anthropic who are deep in the red but want trillion dollar valuations. TLT (20+ year government bonds) is under $85 a share yielding 4.5%. Do you have any concept of how bad that is in a supposed time of stock prosperity? If Anthropic & OpenAI IPO this year I predict a massive plunge and flight of capital out of the US. SPX already underperformed every developed ETF region in the world last year & Emerging markets as well, why not again?

goodbodha

Risk scale sort of goes from Leveraged etfs Qqq or similar NASDAQ etfs Spy Equal weight spy Dividend etfs think schd Treasuries etfs On a separate list you got precious metals, corporate bonds, and commodities. I wouldn't bother with this section unless you want to hedge for specific risks. And of course there is also individual stock picks. Also global etfs and other equity market etfs such as Europe, Japan, China, etc. If you want to diversify that's good and all but usually when people say that they mean they think they have too much of some kind of risk. So hedge for that or tilt your portfolio a bit towards something with less of that risk. If your worried about let's say the market topping out sell some calls or buy some puts. If you sell the calls put that premium collected to work. Maybe buy some TLT or a different treasury etf. If the market goes up sell the treasuries and buy back the calls. If market goes down calls expire and you got the Treasury etfs hopefully doing well. If you worried about AI bubble perhaps buy some schd and lean away from AI that way. Whatever you do don't go buying leveraged bull or bear etfs. Those can work out but frequently burn people badly. Good luck

TreGet234

After heavy deliberation, the ideal bond etf allocation only needs IEI and TLT. ZROZ if you really wanna bank on a big crash. The 10-20 year range is kinda just dead weight. 3 year and under is fine too but doesn't really pop off in a recession.

TreGet234

Ok after heavy talk with ai, over a relatively short time horizon of 1-3 years, and assuming a somewhat realictic cutting cycle sequence, TLT should return about 20x the yield delta in long yields and ZROZ about 40x the yield delta in long yields. This cuts both ways though if rates keeo creeping up but for a recession ZROZ could be explosive.

TreGet234

Very good and better yield than TLT. One of the reasons i don't quite like bond funds. I rather just buy one at a good yield and lock it in to know exactly how it will behave mathematically. Not to mention be able to use that yield to buy stocks instead of more bonds at potentially less attractive yields. I do wonder if i should stick to lower duration, like 5-10 years. But now that yields are actually pretty damn high all things considered it's safer than ever to lock in long durations. The trauma from 10 years ago is still fresh though. If you bought some sub 1% long bonds you got absolutely obliterated.

TreGet234

Not sure yet. Asking ai, it seems TLT should grow in cumulative value by about 5% for every 0.5% that yields drop. ZROZ is a higher leverage version of that, doing about 2x that. So the higher yield bonds mainly just protect you in case yields stay high or keep creeping up. Meanwhile ZROZ is a full bet on yields going down.

melanthius

You'll have better luck trying to run wheel on TLT but this is likely more risk than it's worth, plus that's a bullish strategy on an underlying which isn't particularly bullish

PutSpreadDaddi69

TLT back to green vs open

Own-Recipe5908

Thinking TLT will see a bounce if panic keeps building sometime today. Gonna get a bunch (Yeah, yeah, scalping a percent ain't sexy).

zachmoe

Long term Treasury Bonds. More TLT.

hymie-the-robot

I am a fan. I would change TLT to KMLM because TLT has been highly correlated to equities in recent years, and I'd consider WTV instead of VT. IT is becoming mired in capex, with signs AI may lack pricing power, and already we're seeing a rotation out of the sector. so your pivot is timely.

Odd-Guava9894

The issue IMO is that even if you aren't looking for growth there are now products that accomplish the job of being safe in a downturn more effectively than a generic bond allocation these days. If you are talking short term cash equivalents when you talk bonds, like SGOV, then I see the place for them, hell if you are talking about buying and holding individual bonds until expiration, they can make sense, but I don't think holding intermediate or long term bond funds as a hedge against downturns makes any sense at all these days, which is what most people end up doing when they hear they need to hold bonds. They are not uncorrelated enough to be a proper hedge, and not safe enough to justify the shit yields. If someone retiring just before COVID had gone all in on BND or God forbid TLT, because they heard bonds were safe in a downturn they'd be absolutely fucked. About the only situation where a large bond allocation makes sense to me is in a barbell strategy to offset some form of leveraged equity exposure, usually LEAPS options, and only short duration bonds even in that case.

xade93

Seeing this post at 2026 is absolute insane. TLT dropped 50% from highest point, historical low since like 2001, while stocks been in historical high

Lostrader7

SPY TLT BTC/Gold

abinferno

TLT and SHY list prices are flat over 20 years, so the only return you got is interest minus inflation, which is what, 2% over that time frame? Bonds have been a huge opportunity cost over a very long period of time.

Pristine_Berry1650

Ill have to check out BND, im only familiar with TLT and SHY

madalytical

US Treasuries, especially long-term ones, are going to EXPLODE upwards in value TLT/TMF, we're weeks away mark this post and watch it happen against all odds; party forth!

TreGet234

TLT looking like a snack to capture both rising dxy and the coming disinflation and cutting cycle during upcoming market volatility eoy.

NurUrl

I’ve just read something about the AI Dollar (in my opinion, it’s more like a memory dollar), a sort of cousin to the petrodollar, and that would explain why the DXY and the TLT are moving up alongside the memory boom… I suppose Warsh was right: you can have a strong dollar and low interest rates… Let’s see how this turns out What the AI-Dollar is well, SK and Taiwan are using the dollars they earn from exports and reinvesting them in US Stock Market and Treasury bonds, Basically "Petrodollar Recycling" and yada yada...

AM_STARR

They’re dirt cheap, literally 1$ per contract at 7/10 exp. Worth the upside all day since TLT has hit 100% spikes during big crashes. I’m loaded up on like 80 contracts spread through feb

vermilli21

I still think about that guy that went all in on TLT July calls and everyone called him an idiot.....hes probably living life now

AM_STARR

If you guys are smart, you will load up on deep otm TLT calls

j4c11

TLT mooning

HaveAKlondike

TLT gap fill and then dump

alfred250

TLT is up 5% from the May lows

jrex035

Most of my portfolio is in ETFs, with most of that tracking the S&P and the remainder largely in semis. They've done well this year so far. Overall I'm still beating the S&P, but not by much. But in my primary trading account I sold much of my holdings to buy BNO, O&G equities, and green energy equities with the thesis that the biggest energy crisis in history would benefit them, then I was planning to rotate out and repurchase my old holdings and anything else that looked solid (with an expected discount). My strategy worked, for a short time. Then the ceasefire caused me to lose most of those gains. I held and bought the dip on a lot of my holdings because I knew the Strait wouldn't reopen for months to come. And that worked too, I kept bouncing back to ATHs for 2 months right before another barrage of "peace deal imminent" bs sent my holdings spinning again and again. With the MOU signed (for the 3rd time somehow) I ate my losses on about half my energy holdings and went looking for good buys. Bought across multiple sectors looking for defensive holdings, good dividends, solid earnings, and growth (semis, mining, shipping, foreign markets, utilities, TLT, etc). Only for most of those to promptly fall off a cliff in the last week, I'm probably down another ~8% on those collectively already, all while my energy holdings drop ~2% daily. Tl;dr I missed out on the semis/memory/market rally from April to early June, just to get buttfucked by the recent pullback across the board anyway. Apparently nothing is more bearish for energy than the largest supply interruption in history, which is *still* draining inventories at a historic pace. Silly me.

HaveAKlondike

TLT puts and SLV calls?

j4c11

TLT mooning

BBBY4ever

After all these years, is it finally time for TLT and bonds? No, couldn’t be.

tropicalia84

Small caps and TLT absolutely parabolic today Big money already has the PCE report for tomorrow and it’s ICE COLD

Fhyzikz

TLT has been zoomin

sonofalando

2% day on TLT 🍺

HaveAKlondike

TLT 🔥🔥🔥

DesignerSea494

I’ve been slowly loading up TLT like a boomer.

zachmoe

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fS2qS85Ru9I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fS2qS85Ru9I) I would do something more like. 30% TFLO 20% TLT 33% VT 15% IAU 2% BTC

sonofalando

Damn, yields falling or course after I rotate out of TLT 🤡🤡🤡

Medium_Beautiful_721

TLT is ripping. We are so cooked

CoC_Axis_of_Evil

TLT and gold moving together as well 

InquisitorCOC

If we can get away without rate hikes after SoH was blocked for 3+ months, it would be truly amazing Right now most only see 1 rate hike this year Today, gold is down the most, TLT is up a little, and USD is up a lot

ideletedmyaccount04

Some body is selling, its not me. I am tied up in $TLT till 7/17.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

TLT little upward channel lately 

zxc123zxc123

I'm not going to say he's right all the time but folks think he's still a bear when he's not? Dude used to be a hedge fund guy so he'd be short or neutral. Hedge funds aren't designed with the goal to beat the S&P500 or whatever benchmark. They are designed so rich folks can under perform the S&P500 but sleep better knowing if shit happened they'd have some insurance policy. During the GFC many of those hedge funds didn't pan out. Michael Burry's did. Then MB close his hedge fund and opened Scion capital. It's mostly personally owned so he didn't have to deal with investors or whatever. It's NOT a hedge fund so he's been mostly long but he's still a hedgefund/contrarian guy so he'll opportunistically short. He's made both right calls and wrong calls. I remember I went long TLT when he was short and Buffet was short/neutral. Dude caught the bottom for the China tech. Also made money with the quick in&out on the TSLA short. Dude isn't like Chanos so he doesn't commit to shorts, but he's also not like Buffet so he'll exit longs quickly too. That's why I don't even try to mirror his plays like I do Buffet who I use as a "Berkshire will do the vetting homework for me" (bought BAC a bit lower than Buffet did in 2020. Also started stacking AXP which has turned out pretty great). Twitter MB however is the worse. He'll say sensationalist shit for personal reasons. Either cause he's off-spectrum or because he wants to manipulate the markets. It's even more worthless than looking at his 13F. Folks should realize by now that free investment advice on the internet is worthless if not worth less than that cause if it's worth 2 cents then they'd have charged you that $0.02.

jrex035

B, SILJ, TLT, XLU, PICK, EWY, VXUS, IAU. Managed to buy the daily top on most of them somehow lmao

gamebak

I would diversify way more and I wouldn't allocate more than 5% in the first month to this strat. From that 5% (about 100k) diversify into at least 10 different trades, try to find uncorrelated ones and go far OTM. I would also consider doing TLT for starters, while you can't go that far OTM, you don't have a lot of volatility in it. Ape-ing into QQQ will sure blow out when a 7% drop or more in the market.

mneymaker

Yeh you right. He bought 400 x AMD 340C for Dec '27. 600k ->11M with today's value. His 1,5 MIL on TLT calls, gone.

mneymaker

Ayo i remember a guy posting 10 months ago a big ass bet on AMD leaps like $3m and hedges with some TLT or some shit. I think this guy has x10 both his main play and his hedge LMAO

VariationConstant675

Short term TLT, it should bounce as there will be bailouts.....AI is true and the biggest beneficiaroea will be, again application....drug, healthcare and of course, softwares...

6bigbrother

TLT has historically been the best hedge. That could be different this time around.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

TLT may never be green again 

fudge_mokey

TLT needs a bit of a pump. Once we see rates drop, we can hit 7600 on the SPX

fire_alarmist

Friendly reminder the TLT bond ETF is hitting lows and breaking down past levels last seen in 2007. 20 and 30 years bond yields are almost identical. Bond market pricing in the fact that the US literally will not exist in 20 years L0L

Sagelllini

No, they have not recovered. For TLT, the IShares long term treasury fund, the discount to par on the entire portfolio is in the neighborhood of 25% (when I looked last).

Akaberes

Try TLT

aftherith

TLT giving it back

No-Improvement3164

Is TLT going bankrupt?

OnceInaLifetimeee

What's TLT?

QuantumStrix

Long space, short robots, long Bitcoin, short TLT - you will make a ton of money

ideletedmyaccount04

Rare $TLT win today boys. I am at a post great financial crisis high here. <3

aftherith

Going up on bad news boys. Be careful. TLT up oil down index is bouncing on theoretically very bad news.

Reynhart

Damn, my electric bill increased like 12% this month over last :/ Puts on TLT

_WhatchaDoin_

When bonds are getting crushed by inflation and increased rates? (Don’t look at the perf of TLT for the past 7 years 🤣). Thank goodness for VXUS though.

torokunai

moving $14k in my 401k from cash to my funds on Monday may have been premature. Today gave back Tuesday's TLT gain so the bond component in this $14k wad may still be neutral I guess.

glitched_system1

My most regarded play today was making 200 bucks by selling 84.5 TLT naked puts

Reynhart

I should load up on more TLT puts

Thecreamcheeze

Holy TLT

nomemory

In my opinion it's possible. But the market after April was crazier than ever. IRAN, hyped IPOs, CPI, fed discussions, elevated OIL prices, TLT at interesting prices, IRAN attacking - too messy. Sometimes it's better to stay on the sidelines and see where everything goes. Your decision sounds rational, but the instrument you are picking (0dtes) to play the rational game is irrational given the context. Rational people win by playing longer term games.

PeakNader

Presumably you’d invest the capital raised from the short sale, say in TLT and end up netting a few points

Mobile-Bar7732

> Buy some TLT with the proceeds Proceeds of what? You realize the yield on TLT is only 4.6%. I'd rather not invest in index funds that support shitty companies that don't provide the profits for their high valuation. Problem solved.

PeakNader

Buy some TLT with the proceeds

A10cc

I'm so retarded I bought TLT @ $85.

noimnotinterested

TLT trading like a meme stock lol, only thing green in port is brk.

kairepaire

TLT is up today

Samjabr

Financial Advice: Full port TLT Sept puts Youre welcome!

Samjabr

F this noise Loading up September TLT puts. Rates finnin to blast off

Basic-Goat6329

TBH If CPI prints 4.1+ on Wednesday, I'd watch VIX closely. Anything above 25 and you're in a zone where most swing setups just aren't worth the risk-reward until the dust settles. People forget that even a technically perfect entry gets demolished if the macro tide turns against you mid-trade. The ECB hiking Thursday right before a hot CPI print is a rough one-two punch for anyone holding growth names. Dollar strengthens, risk assets take the hit. I'd be watching DXY and TLT more than individual charts this week — if those two are both moving against you, idk if any amount of technical analysis saves the trade.

madalytical

in very simple terms, it has a portion to do with AI, but not so much a pop; think of it as massive liquidation in order to realize large portions of profit, such profit is then utilized to purchase other equities that have taken a beating, and on top, the current bond market has been obliterated for many years and very "undesired"; however, countries the world over do not have anything remotely of value in terms of country-power compared to the USA and any investor the world over would significantly favor US Treasuries over any other, especially in their current state (gold will tank sub-4k in week(s)) which further exasperates the situation for treasuries there will a massive flight to safety however it will be short-termed, short-termed, not long-term whatsoever; the time to liquidate major positions is NOW, and that's specifically for positions that have gone astronomical as of late, leaving a large portion holding major bags and for extended periods (can be seen from lightyears away) US Treasuries are going to SKYROCKET BEYOND BELIEF and they're week(s) away I'm 20% in long-term treasuries, keep an eye on TLT and TMF (TMF is where my 20% is and it delivers 3xTLT) mark this post and come back to it week(s) later, take me to the cleaners or don't hesitate to PayPal me with some love PATHETICALLY easy, and I stress the PATHETIC

Send_Lawyers

TLT still going down. Commodities going down. Crypto going down. It’s getting Black Friday out there fellas. Them rate hikes were not priced in. God I hope Saylor has a credit event and we see 50k corn. 🌽

Separate_Fold5168

TLT calls on these fake jobs is free money

zxc123zxc123

Very similar story with my own. Here I am trying to recommend VOO, SGOV, TLT, and safe blue chips. Meanwhile she YOLO'd into TSLA, PLTR, TEM, and other meme shit with you clowns. Not sure which is worse: she's clearly getting some of those names from youtubers or whatever boomer finfluencers or that she's actually doing well with those investments.

drew-gen-x

The top is in. I dumped all my AT&T and $TLT shares and FOMO all that cash into $VXUS, $VT, and $EWY. I still own Deere & Co and Sony; but I dumped all the rest of my individual stocks today. If no one else in the market wants to buy value, then why should I hold value??

ideletedmyaccount04

Imagine a brokerage so powerful it can sell short $MU to exactly a 1000 because you are short calls. I have never owned $MU other than $SPY. I have never owned an MU call or put. I just find this current festinating AF and yes I am a pussy with all my money in Covered short $TLT puts, with one $MOS put.

Appropriate_One_4273

Oil down, VIX down, SPY up, TLT up. We're FINE guys. Just a little breather for semis/AI, I'm sure this will only fuel another squeeze higher.

Thecreamcheeze

Full port TLT today

Reynhart

Anyone else eyeing puts on TLT?

AnotherDegenerateFK

Everything’s a computer, USO, SLV, GLD, TLT, DXY… all of it

Medium_Beautiful_721

TLT going crazy

ideletedmyaccount04

$TLT 7/17 85 covered secured puts $MOS 6/26 6/26 cash secured put why is the font for $TLT shorter than $MOS

Medium_Beautiful_721

TLT Ripping

Potential_Jello6520

I've made the most on TLT puts this year. Can't wait for another leg

tldamico

Most of the time, TLT sucks to watch during the day.

Meanboy_og

I’m just buying TLT until this market cools off a little . Sold all my Hormel for now

ideletedmyaccount04

Congratulations to everyone not bag holding. (I am all tied up on hoping TLT doesn't shit the bed by 7/17, selling covered puts) **tl;dr** I miss being liquid.

optimal_909

Agreed, the only potential weak point is federal debt and the dollar purchasing power, i.e. as long as bonds have buyers and inflation remain in check this market will go up. I am long with an asymmetric hedge, small lot of TLT puts that would deliver multipliers if markets break down.

Medium_Beautiful_721

TLT mooning. We are cooked

Apprehensive-Koala18

Brent about break lows, TLT ripping. You thought this rally was absurd? Wait until we get rid of headwids

Medium_Beautiful_721

TLT is ripping……we might be cooked

gainsusmaximus

TLT gang wya

tldamico

Thinking of some TLT puts. Seems like it likes to pump in pre-market and dump during market hours.

tldamico

Only thing I held overnight was TLT calls. They're now ITM. Here's to hoping the green candles continue.