TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
200.00% Today
Reddit Posts
+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
Dump bonds. Sell America. Make my TLT puts print.
* VTI: 40% * KMLM: 20% * DBMF: 20% * GLDM: 10% * TLT: 10% Gets close to S&P returns with 1/3 the drawdown. https://testfol.io/?s=5lit5gboz6a
TLT and TMF are at month long lows. Great time to buy
They can do yield curve control Don't fuck with TLT
Short DXY and TLT, long Gold and Silver
I've got some TLT puts. Think they'll payout come Monday??
Brother what you on? You want to recover losses and you buy OTM options on ETH based on some Fib level..?? My poor brother, you are in for a rude awakening in 2026. Cut them losses, but the remaining money in SPY/QQQ/GLD/TLT/IBIT/EFA and pray for another couple of great years in the stock market. And keep adding in those every month when you receive your pay check. And do not touch an option until you have banned technical analysis from your vocabulary and understand the importance of realized and implied volatility.
TLT my expectations were low but holy fuck.
TLT's value is derived by the current interest rate. You would not be getting a 4% divvy from the Treasuries purchased over the past 10 years. You'd be getting maybe 2% if you DCA'd into them. Under 1% for a lot of them.
The 10 year return on TLT is 0%. Who the fuck is buying treasuries with that sort of return?
Wow. SPY down. TLT down. Metals down. Is this...deflation? Or just an EOY margin call?
TLT ending the year red I couldn't be more happy, so hyped to see how the worst asset class trades in 2026. LFG!
Oh damn TLT bros having a bad day
Rate cuts are over. The Treasury couldn't move their mountain of debt issuance @ 3.75%, so the Fed needed to QE it. Inflation isn't subsiding, and the market is telling the govt that they wont buy 2 trilly in annual debt issuance at sub-1% real return. This is as low as Treasury yields go. TLT gang about to get fucked.
SPY and QQQ short term pullback before earnings seasons. Earnings are still strong. Bigger pullback near midterm elections. Bullish on Energy, Financials, Healthcare, and Communications. Flat on bond funds such as TLT. Bullish on gold, silver, and copper with pullbacks inversely with the SP500.
Slow day. Bought puts on TLT around yesterday's close, scalped for small profit. Will probably code a 'metals desk' page for my pet app soon.
What about dividends? Why not short puts shorter in duration and roll them if TLT price drops? This sounds "too good to be true." I am long TYO and TTT since the last cut but looking to trim.
You are short TLT puts for the credit and long TMV calls/TMF puts? This is a big brain trade. Why not just short /ZB futures?
Puts on metals calls on TLT yes im highly regarded
So what do you do to trade macros? TLT? ZQ?
Thx. I have a nice explanation from Gemini. # 1. The "Zig-Zag" (Sawtooth) Pattern This pattern represents the monthly lifecycle of the ETF's dividend distribution: * **The Upward Slope:** T-bills are sold at a discount and "pull to par" (increase in value) as they approach maturity. As the bills inside the fund get closer to their payday, the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the ETF steadily climbs. This represents the **accrued interest** being earned by the fund. * **The Sharp Drop:** This happens on the **Ex-Dividend Date** (usually the first business day of the month). On this day, the fund "cleans its books" to pay out the interest it earned to shareholders. The share price drops by the exact amount of the dividend to reflect that the cash is no longer held within the fund but is instead being sent to you. # 2. The Pronounced Yearly Drops (Special Distributions) If the arrows you highlighted are at the very end of December or early January, you are likely looking at **Year-End Capital Gains or Excise Tax Distributions.** While $BIL primarily pays out interest, it sometimes realizes small capital gains from trading bills or needs to make a "catch-up" distribution to meet IRS requirements for ETFs before the year ends. * In December, $BIL often has a **second distribution** (sometimes called a "Potential Excise Distribution"). * This creates a "double drop" or a much larger single drop than a typical month because it may include the regular December interest plus any extra gains realized throughout the year. # Why don't other Bond ETFs look like this? If you look at a chart for **$TLT** (20+ Year Treasuries) or **$BND** (Total Bond Market), you won't see this clean zig-zag. This is because those funds hold long-term bonds that fluctuate wildly in price based on interest rate changes. That "market noise" is so loud that it completely drowns out the small monthly dividend drop. Because $BIL has a very short **duration** (approx. 0.09 years), it has almost no price risk, making the dividend cycle the only thing left for the chart to show.
Short TLT. Inflation will go nuts
Dude, we are the same. I am 37 and went from 75k to 35k this year. Lost most of it on UNH, NVO, TLT call options and PLTR puts. It really sucks
Probably add to GOOGL, PLTR, and RKLB when/if appropriate and VOO at more or less random red days. I do often sell calls on PLTR, but I am much more careful nowadays with those. I'll probably look into robotics, defense, and utilities/energy more. KSPI is my moonshot bet that I sell calls on to buy an occasional share. I intend to not be too quick to pull the trigger and keep a relatively large cash position at the ready in 2026-2028. Also bought TLT this year that I could rotate out of if a crash materializes. Things will change though I'm sure.
My 2026 outperformer list: Paypal TLT Amzn Rdw Spire Mbly Bmnr Celh Pepsi Pfizer
|Return 1M|Symbol|Return 6M|Return YTD|Return 1Y|Return 5Y|Return 10Y|Return 20Y| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |\-1.59%|[TLT](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/tlt/)|3.73%|4.56%|3.40%|\-34.86%|\-6.85%|82.91%| |\-5.76%|[TMF](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/tmf/)|4.02%|\-2.08%|\-5.68%|\-87.83%|\-77.66%|\-| |6.33%|[TMV](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/tmv/)|\-4.88%|\-4.57%|\-1.09%|199.29%|\-36.62%|\-|
I think JPY govt t bond yields hit multi-decade highs today, and short term JPY bonds too. Meaning, no more free cheap outflow to US from JPN. I expect a red day today, but TLT and US bonds should go up, as well as GLD. This is retarded non-financial commentary.
SPAXX and FDLXX are money market funds. They act like a HYSA except they are SIPC insured instead of FDIC insured. (Both up to 250k) The 75k principle is not affected unless there is a "breaking of the buck" event. From AI search... In the 50+ year history of money market funds, "breaking the buck" has only happened three times across the entire industry and Fidelity has never had a money market fund break the buck. 1978: A small fund fell to $0.94 due to rising interest rates. 1994: A fund fell to $0.96 because it used risky derivatives (which are now largely banned for these funds). 2008: The Reserve Primary Fund fell to $0.97 because it held debt from Lehman Brothers when the bank collapsed. Although SPAXX is invested on US treasuries, the value does not fluctuate like TLT or other bond funds and is pegged to $1usd. SPAXX is considered the safest money market by most standards.
TLT calls is the play. Gdp comes in hot economy too good less rate cuts equities sell off. Gdp comes in low recession scare along with unemployment going up flight to safety
Economic Data & Macro * Jobs: The November report showed 64k jobs added, but quality was poor; most gains were in healthcare (maintenance rather than growth) and government. Full-time jobs decreased while part-time jobs increased. * Inflation: CPI came in cooler than expected (headline 2.7%). Official data lags reality, especially in housing. * Housing: Data from Lennar, KB Home, and [Realtor.com](http://Realtor.com) shows actual home prices and rents are falling (down \~1-7% YoY), which contradicts the high "owners' equivalent rent" in CPI reports. Expect this to eventually show up as lower inflation. Fed & Interest Rates * Rate Outlook: The market is currently pricing in very few cuts for 2026 (approx. 60bps). I believe this is incorrect and expect the Fed to move toward a "neutral" rate of 3% by the end of 2026. * The Play: Betting on lower rates (via late 2026 ZQ futures) is likely a high-reward trade, as there is little downside to the current pricing, which assumes almost no cuts. AI is deflationary and the Fed will bend to POTUS' will over time. Three meetings left with jpow. Market Sentiment * Equities vs. Bonds: The trend of "buying dips in equities and selling rips in bonds" remains intact. I have completely exited my TLT positions. Better opportunities elsewhere. * Commodities: Metals (gold, silver, copper) are performing well, while energy (oil, gas) and agriculture are down.
The majority of my profile (like, about 75% of it) is in TLT and gradually DCA'ing into it, while I write OTM covered calls against it as a "second dividend". I figure, if US bonds dump dramatically, we're going to have much bigger problems than my port being blown up. The remaining 25% is silver, and yet that is what is carrying me in the short term.
That's basically it but good luck finding a broker that'll let you short bonds as a retail investor lol. Most places will just tell you to buy puts on TLT or something instead which isn't quite the same thing
I knew that about dividends, but thanks. My overall point was that the only really meaningful way to decide where to buy Calls is Delta. Which you kind of alluded to, comparing TLT and SHY. It's just easier for everyone if we talk about what Delta our Calls are at, because how many dollars or percent of spot that is is dependent on IV.
It has to be nuclear bomb level deflation event. Look at TLT. Even liberation day when market melted down 20%+, it went up from $85 to.... $92. It's a joke. We all know Fed will keep printing.
I guess you meant Corporate bonds, since you mentioned HYG, but like others have said, US Treasury bonds via TLT have good options volume. And since you mentioned synthetic leverage, and long LEAPS Calls are my favorite, I thought I'd run some numbers. For myself if no one else. First, you said "the" sweet spot for leverage is 5% ITM: I can't say I've ever heard that. But what I *have* heard is that 80-delta is "a" sweet spot, and about a year out. TLT closed at 87.55 today. 5% ITM from that is 83.17. But the 364DTE 83-strike is at only 67-delta. To get 80-delta (actually 81), I have to go to the 78-strike. It's selling for 10.50. But before I bought that guy I'd be looking at the chart for TLT: Not terrible, but not great. Minus 1.8% over 1y, but up 1.0% over 6 months. (But down 1.7% over just the past month.) So not something we're likely to make much from Call appreciation on. And like someone said: theta-decay. But let's see if we can make money **selling CCs** against that long Call: 4 weeks at 27-delta brings in 0.37. But we need 7 cents of that to cover theta-decay of the long Call, so a net profit of 0.30 over 4 weeks. ROI: (0.30 / 10.50)(365 / 28) = 37% And that's not bad. In fact, it's quite great. 8 times better than the 4.3% yield TLT pays. But that's if TLT doesn't go down much; and then the leveraged losses of the LEAPS Calls if it does.
The problem is: finished goods and many commodities are near all time highs. The only thing keeping inflation in check is low energy prices. If interest rates go much lower to stimulate the economy, then energy prices will shoot up quite sharply. And inflation will be well over 3%. Long TLT might work as a short term trade, but I don't think it's good to hold long term currently.
Tlt is an open ended fund. Large entities can essentially deposit the required number of specified duration bonds and get new shares of tlt printed for them. Because of this, short interest is virtually meaningless. There are 5.2 trillion dollars worth of suitable bonds that can be used for creation of new tlt shares. Hoping for a short squeeze in tlt is pointless unless there is also a short squeeze on the entire 20+ year Treasury market. TLT has a market cap equivalent of about $50b. This is less than 1% of the comparable treasuries. There cannot be a short squeeze on tlt because arbitragers will simply create / redeem, making the TLT market effectively tied to the Treasury market. Any difference between TLT and the underlying treasuries will be arbd away, meaning you would need several thousand percent short interest in TLT to move the treasuries even a little.
I just went balls deep in TLT today for the same reasons you mentioned. Hive mind is that inflation is out of control and will stay that way until the dollar is toilet paper. Ask anyone on the street and they will say this. Whats that mean? The lows are in as sentiment is max bearish. The reality is that CPI just came in much lower than expected. Oil is low. Unemployment is going up. The fed is going to lower interest rates below 2% next year and long term rates will follow. US debt will be bought up because of this deflationary trend and conerns over a weakening economy.
TLT is being used as some arbitrage trade. Huge traders are hedging their bond positions by shorting TLT. There is something us smooth brained peons are missing.
OP should I stop $30k into TLT Monday
TLT isnt a bad option play for this strategy, moves slow, need to have 6mo - 1yr expirations
What are you talking about? vix has moved like 10 cents...same with TLT...basically in a holding pattern from first thing this morning
Lol they just calling time out and freezing the market AGAIN. So boolish, meanwhile VIX futures spiking, TLT dropping off a cliff and generally everything is being very obvious. IMAGINE HOLDING HERE KEK
TLT gapping down and getting cooked, ruh roh
TLT is literally melting down, bonds are officially worthless
My TLT puts are liking this treasury action.
So... March 2026 PUTS on TLT? March 2026 CALLS on FXY? Where we going...
TLT plummeting to the depths of hell means we may get a very green day for equities or a big satan dildo. Hopefully the former
My TLT puts are currently looking good.
You could also like run the wheel on TLT, very liquid options. Not the worst thing in the world to be stuck holding.
Anyone using think or swim just see a gap down on SPY and TLT but not seeing it on any other platform? Is this a free glitch?
TLT just cliff diving already
Have some diversity - own some dividend funds, some foreign funds (I like VYM and VYMI), some TLT and some gold.
TLT barely moved until this whopper CPI result. It’s probably already priced in the fake number. This rate trickles down to the credit cards eventually, pushing people further and further into default.
What do people think BOJ decision will do tomorrow? Think of TLT options expiring tomorrow.
u/sonofalando Still think economy is about to collapse or have you changed your mind? TLT has gone absolutely nowhere. I guess some divvies but sitting at 0% YTD appreciation of price. https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1jdm4a3/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_march_18_2025/mibzutx/
TLT needs more quantitative easing. Someone get Powell printing again.
A European in shit like TLT must be in pain and tears. :D
I crave violence on TLT. Bond market needs reset to 20% yield. I wonder if it’ll happen fast or over the course of 40 years
You don't get bonds do you? As interest rates drop existing bonds go up in value. TLT goes up in value. Get it?
Why would TLT run if we have lower inflation? Risk free rate decreases so it should go down in value? Or reduced risk of govt default?
TLT, 8000 shares @91.50. Decided to cut my losses at about 87.75, taking a $25k loss. No longer a believer in the supposed stability of long term bond etfs.
Clock broken is right twice a day. Dr Burry right every few years. Dude wasn't just a bear the whole time but his bearish calls get highlighted by media so he sounds like a gigabear. Dude bought into GME before Roaring Kitty did (sold out early like a paper handed bitch though), shorted then went long China at the right times, went short TLT after Fed rate hikes, etcetcetc. Still. I think Burry is probably wrong and early. The market has so much dumber crap working that shorting AI is like the dumb af. Carvana is worth $100B. That's more than Carmax (6), Honda motors (40), Pinterest (17), Zillow (17), MGM resorts (10), and BiliBili (9.9) COMBINED. Then there are the quantum hype stocks like Riggetti computing. Plus the entire crypto space looks scammy AF plus BTC still has no real use case after 15years. MSTR out here stacking BTC while shorting itself. PE looking for suckers to hold their bags like a fent addict looking for their next fix. And more.
If you looked at TLT/IWM chart you'd know exactly what's happening.
TMV and TLT puts printin' for me. Protip: Watch the ratio chart, TLT/IWM. It'll help. :)
why hold TLT calls?
🥭 says one percent but TLT disagrees
Sure. I see the point. Let me add some context and plan for this trade so I can get some constructure criticism here. I don't intend to hold the put to expiry. There is little theta on this option for the next 16 months, so 50% risk premium I am paying is concentrated in the last 6 months of the put. The thesis here with the hedge is that the US is slowly jogging towards a sovereign debt crisis. Won't happen tomorrow but the long end of the yield curve is going to go up - it will probably be a "spikey" event sometime in the next 16 months that catalyzes an abrupt change in sentiment. (See yesterday for instance or if the next Fed chain continues a plan to cut rates with advancing inflation) The plan is that I'll keep this contract open for next 16 months Scenario A) TLT continues to slide or a negative news catalyst occurs , this put will swing deeper ITM on that event. The gain in the option will offset any losses in HIMU at that point. If that happens, the USG will be forced to implement measures to satisfy the bond market (Fiscal austerity, VAT implementation, etc), at that point TLT will begin to rebound. I'll close this put for a profit, HIMU will retrace (hopefully) to closer to my purchase price and I have protected my principal while still netting the tax free dividend from the muni. Scenario B) TLT does nothing over the next 16 months, HIMU stays close to the price I paid and I sell the put back for a loss on or around May 2027. The expected price of the contract on that date assuming no change in TLY from today is $600. So I paid about $200 in insurance costs on $20k worth of capital. (1%). Yeah that eats into my return, but I am still netting \~4%. Finally the small loss on this option offsets any gains I have elsewhere in my taxable income generating portion of my portfolio. So even this insurance offers value to me elsewhere. So open to feedback on this and if I am thinking about it the right way.
I have $20k in HIMU, a junk muni ETF. It yields about 5% and income is free from federal tax.so $1000 / yr free and clear of any USG taxes. The biggest single risk with that position is interest rate sensitivity. When yield climbs the value of the bonds will fall and ETF price will follow. because of the very real risk that the long end of the yield curve here in the US is going to explode in next 2 years I purchased ATM TLT put for $800 (LEAP) expiring in Jan 2028. TLT price is tightly correlated with HIMU. This I am paying about $400 a year in options premiums as insurance on my $20k principle. A couple things: I am surrendering half the yield in name of insurance. Yes. But I'm largely hedged and delta neutral as HIMU price changes.
$MU ER next week, $hood sell off was due to trading volumes being low deposits were still at highs, $TLT is my hedge it’ll pay out 10x if thesis plays out, $COIN slowed down on buying BTC but I see one more pump before EOY to 100k will sell out at 285 everything is a bit more calculated then it seems
That TLT play will be a wild ride - a nail biter with respect to yield curve control on the long end. I'm not sure it's going to come that soon, they will only do that as a last resort "solution".
Unless TLT rallies I think it's a trap.
Nah TLT and the ten year yields are screaming. Treasuries are tp now. And being dumped into lower fed rate. That’s a setup for the stag flation. My take is this is temporary and the t bills will find buyers. Take this chance to buy call for January.
$TLT calls. Reason should be obvious
TLT dropped almost 1% overnight. T bills going in the dumpster on the day the fed is supposed to be buying them. I don’t think they are gonna struggle to find sellers. The bond market tantrum might put a wet blanket on gains today.
TLT is just getting butt fucked all week
Remember that guy who went all in on TLT last year for rate cuts in his retirement. Hope he’s ok
TLT lower than before Powell. Probably nothing
Check TLT, long term bonds
#TLT making me horny again 👀😳
TLT, some REITs too (NLY is a decent one) *Not financial advice
TLT kings watching with interest 👀
I made money on TLT puts today by some miracle