TLT

rdw0680

Hate to admit it but I bought TLT call spreads

torokunai

TLT dump is taking down my divvy plays

Putrid_Pollution3455

YES! I lost like 92k options trading in the past couple years. Pure retardium. But I'd hit a wild win every once in a while that kept giving me hope. But when I'd throw down on individual assets, biggest win was TLT and literal physical gold, that's when I made a good amount. I don't show my other account cause I'm paranoid.

IvoryTowerResident

slight up after going down 1% on the TLT

TreGet234

The bottom in TLT is in. This baby can now easily pop 10% or even 50% if we enter a recession.

DSCN__034

Not good for short term cash. There is significant duration risk in TLT.

Johansen193

Buy long bonds like TLT

Cav829

The entire rally today was seemingly on the back of long bonds rallying over 1%. The problem is it is now if you look at TLT, it's into major resistance and would have to fight that and two moving averages to even move really pennies beyond where it landed.

Careless-Place-170

might be a controversial take, but TLT is hitting 75 before it hits 120

TreGet234

Hope monday ar the latest we can pump. Gold folks are saying we are likely at a low here. I take it that as such gold and stocks and even TLT will rally together hopefully into an obvious blow off top or just a normal rally that lasts another year.

Cav829

I dunno, we've got a weekly lower high so I'm just sitting back and waiting to see. The rally aws based off oil needing to correct its RSI, but it's soaring back up. TLT hit like 10 cents shy of massive resistance, so I'm not sure how much more that's going to help. Bulls are still massively off negating weekly lower highs on the important indexes, so there's still room to try to rally. But I think par tof the problem is this attempt to stage a fake feeling lockout rally instead of just letting it pull back a bit. It gives it that air of fakeness as I don't think anyone is fully buying a lockout under these conditions.

Fhyzikz

I am balls deep in TLT and SCHP

Nelsonsrightknacker

TLT is very tempting here

Cav829

You guys do you know that your rally is dependent upon TLT continuing to go up; the thing none of you want to touch,.

TreGet234

80.5 was the bottom for TLT.

tldamico

Sold my TLT puts for 0.01 because I don't want to see it in my port anymore even though they don't expire until tomorrow. Anyone else do that?

Cav829

100% this. People scream all these macro factors and then try to force impose them on 15 minute candles and go insane. There is so much complexity to the market that you can pick out a few data points and impose whatever view you want on it. I was originally much more of a long-term investor, but moving into day trading as well as starting to understand options (though I generally don't trade options) really helped broaden my view and see where I was making mistakes. So in the span of less than 24 hours we've declared bulls and bears extinct, and meanwhile, you guys ready for this... nothing significant has changed. The bulls made a really good move last night off of what appears to be a failed breakdown. Now step back, take a breath, and realize why it occured: a dumpout on oil and a huge move on long bonds. Now go look at a chart on TLT: it's about to run into a brick wall. trying to overcome a bunch of moving averages as well as a sharply declining trendline during a huge downtrend. So call me skeptical about that helping much more this week. Now how much more of an oil dump are you expecting here? Largest projected oil dump I could give you would be $92. It will shoot up like a rocket from there if it gets there with no macro changes. I'm kind of expecting more $98 as the floor.

tldamico

At least my CRWV put is doing well. Wish I could say the same about my TLT puts....

TreGet234

Might put my mom in TLT and gold.

TreGet234

Vix calls, TLT, GLD, MU puts... bears have a full buffet to choose from.

TreGet234

Time to load up on TLT and Gold.

Pizza_n_Tendies

TLT is negative on the all time chart lol

TreGet234

TLT has bottomed.

Freedom-Of-Trades

Got my ass kicked on TLT once. Ouch. Screw that one.

spilledonwhite

I bought SCHD late August thinking it would be a defensive position in a drawdown. Shit has tanked 3x more than SPY this month. One of these days I'm going to make a post outlining all of the absolutely absurd ways the market has fucked me this year. I bet I could bring rates back down by shorting TLT.

Bravadette

I think TLT hit its lowest since 2005 today

Cav829

I mean it was a pretty massive sell-down at the end of the day. There was bounce to be a retrace. And it's probably just following up on yet another small jump on TLT. Algos are now mechanically buying on bond swings as much as oil swings.

QuanTradin

Call volume on TLT does not tell you which way anyone is positioned. Volume alone cannot separate an opening buy from a closing sell, and a large call print is just as likely to be someone writing calls against a bond book as someone betting on yields falling. You need the change in open interest the next morning, and ideally whether the prints went off at the bid or the ask, before volume becomes a positioning read. Without that the chart shows activity, not direction. The implied move section is the solid part of the post.

Bravadette

Jesus TLT is still pumping. 20 yr falling as well.

Bravadette

TLT

2020isgreat

Inflation that's the risk. If you invested in TLT the risk free asset 5 years ago u'd be down bad

pineapplekiwipen

but clowns on x were telling me TLT is a generational buy at 90

Putrid_Pollution3455

real bears buy TLT, SGOV, and GLD

the-real-batman3

is TLT fucked? or time to buy?

JabCrossE4E5Quark

Its 2024+. Throw all common sense and past heuristics out the window. The only thing that happens now is bonds go down and stocks go up forever. 3 years from now SPX will be 15000 and TLT will be 50

tldamico

Sold TLT calls for more ramen money....

tldamico

Holding very little. Just a couple of TLT calls and 1 AAPL call.

jarMburger

0DTE on TLT. But keep in mind that this is long bond so you’ll need to figure out how market will react to Fed’s decision on the long side

TreGet234

On TLT...

Nelsonsrightknacker

thinking long TLT talk me out of it

Nelsonsrightknacker

is TLT a trade (BUY) guys ??

I-IV-I64-V-I

..... TLT

TreGet234

TLT and chill for generational wealth in 1 year.

Dense_Ostrich_6077

Savior of TLT

TreGet234

Calls on TLT and GLD. Puts on DXY and DRAM.

Tontellau

TLT is 20y bonds so your argument doesnt make sence

TreGet234

Maybe calls on euro hedged TLT? It's entirely probable that a hike will actually make DXY go down paradoxically.

TreGet234

TLT calls for easy, risk free money. 5% was the top for the 10y.

RichardChesler

Look up the Ray Dalio all season portfolio. It’s average through the dotcom bubble, 2008 crisis, 2022 dump, etc. was still above 7%. It’s super easy to set up. Otherwise, check out the dividends sub and get a mix of SCHD TLT and VTI

KMI_Dragon_Knight

This is what's for tomorrow. Kevo cuts 25bps, QQQ hits $750 and fucks every hedge, yields crater for no discernible reason, TLT goes parabolic to $86, Bessent explains what the fuck just happened while eating Doritos in a press conference, Ken Shitadel and the other asset managers lose their literal shit live on CNN and FOX. Then Donald takes credit for the strongest market in years while bragging about the billions his family made in prediction markets. It will be glorious.

transitlobbyist

All in on AUR. Self-driving tech is closer to being a reality in terms of less human control and trucking is a great place to get in. TLT and LTL rates are going to push higher as oil goes higher. ONDS Drones are hard to market commercially. HOVR faces too many regulatory hurdles. INDI is going to get acquired if they have any success.

TreGet234

TLT will be up 50% next year.

PapaCharlie9

GLD would pop up if there’s no rate hike. Even just a hold will send people running for inflation hedges. TLT and HYG may tank.

CoC_Axis_of_Evil

rip TLT

rdw0680

TLT down 7% since inception

tldamico

sold everything to lock in gains and then picked up some TLT puts.

TreGet234

TLT

bwood01

Consider that an emergency fund could be something like TLT (20 year treasury EFT). It pays monthly and you can use DRIP to reinvest automatically. In most trading platforms if you connect your regular bank you can move money back and forth fairly quickly. TLT: (as of 9/14/26) 4.81% - 5.14% PLUS any gain on the underlying EFT share price. It is down about as low as it can go. While there is risk, it is at a low of the 2008 finance crash. I can't see the Fed or Treasury letting it continue to sink. So, you could have your emergency fund in a quick access way (semi-liquid), get the highest interest rates available for "ready" cash, keep it on hand and let it grow over time. Under the Rule of 72 and a 5% CAGR return, that would double whatever safety net you have in about 14 years without doing anything. Assuming it isn't needed, or, is quickly replenished if needed, that is super low-risk and offers an okay return over time.

autumnbreeznleaves

The indices moving higher is more of a reflection of the demise of the value of the DXY than the economy. You mention 5.011% on the 10 yr likes its a line in the sand. 5.011% is still WAY too low of a rate to encourage funds to move from equities to bonds like $VTI to $TLT in anything less than a trade. US 10 yr would need to move to at least 7-8% to encourage demand to meet the new supply. People demand 2-3% ABOVE real inflation to make bonds worth their time or investment. When I wasted time here before I was encouraging buying $VXUS and $GLD. That hasn't changed. You don't need to watch the daily stock movements to realize the end game is a weaker USD and higher asset prices. Everyone should be focusing at the value of the denominator rather than the value of the numerator when trying to figure out stock, indices, or asset prices like housing, crude oil and gold. Cheers.

Full_Cash6140

why did TLT go green? tf?

creemeeseason

5% was the previous low from 2023. Tons of people had it targeted to buy treasuries, even if only for a trade. Everyone here makes fun of TA, but it has its uses. Now my question is to hold TLT calls through the fed meeting or sell today.

jasperCrow

If we all buy TLT interest rates will drop and our other stocks will moon.

jasperCrow

Is TLT becoming the next meme ticker?

chibi78

whoever set up algos on TLT to buy I hope everything bad happens to you

swenau01

Plunge protection team clocked in hard for TLT

swenau01

Especially on TLT

Spac55

Time to load TLT

Garbage-Disposal-938

every time I think about buying some TLT, I take a look at the 5 year price graph and think this thing's going to zero. I might as well full port BYND

Common-Royal8234

Who is ready for a new 52wk low on TLT?!?

yatruthordare

in my brokerage-(short term use) I’m **FFUT / PDBC / OILK** if commodity shock continues **SGOV / TBIL / TFLO** yield and preserve ammunition **TLT - in case** recession/risk-off scenario reverses the rate story TLT is my main uncertainty but its small like 2%

Harder_Than_Lemonade

TSDR: TLT Calls

Careless-Place-170

I thought you meant bread as in $, i.e. shorting TLT lmao

carrollart

Remember Friday when SPY and TLT were just green for no reason? It was like a miracle!! Ya know? Just suddenly green

Successful-End7689

3y return on TLT is -15% bunds are truley cooked

WorkSucks135

The difference is in a real recession TLT will go up 25-40% while the Google bonds will not

carrollart

Ohhh no wonder SPY and TLT opened up +.8% 🤷‍♂️ 🤷‍♂️

zachmoe

It is real. [treasurydirect.gov](http://treasurydirect.gov) Or, you can help me with my TLT bags, and just buy that.

zachmoe

[treasurydirect.gov](http://treasurydirect.gov) Or you can help me with my TLT bags, and just buy that.

zachmoe

[treasurydirect.gov](http://treasurydirect.gov) Or you can help me with my TLT bags, and just buy that.

2020isgreat

Oh look TLT completely reverted to before the inflation print

JuanPabloElTres

You're off on a couple of things. Your own example - which was taken from my point - if Fed cut to just the expected neutral rate of 3%, and had a spread on 10 year of 2%, that would give market giving a 5% yield and, at a $1.062 yearly dividend, is a price of $21.24. That is, it would be a 33% capital appreciation gain. Interest rates don't need to go back to 0% to have capital appreciation. Indeed, this effectively already happened for BACPRP in September 2024 when the stock hit $21 on the 10 year yield going down to 3.6 on expectations the fed was on a path to cut down to neutral. It's somewhat ironic to me you're treating the S&P 500 as less risky than preferred top tier bank stock - particularly when we're at all time high stock valuations and a booming AI trade that's very easily could become the dot com bubble 2.0. Just take a step back and think about what you're saying on that front, it's absurd. The TLT trade is an interesting point. The answer for me personally is that you're getting a higher yield with the BACPRQ; there's also a bit of a tax advantage in that BACPRQ will be qualified dividends while interest on TLT/bonds does have federal tax advantages; and, for me personally, there are some specific reasons why a 5% yield is not enough cash flow. To your point though, TLT is a very similar bet where you're essentially trading a bit lower yield for more creditworthiness and probably a bit more potential for capital appreciation.

hugh2018

You are still missing the mathematical reality of fixed-rate perpetuals and conflating credit default risk with duration and structure risk. The math doesn’t work for $21: BAC-PRQ pays a fixed coupon of 4.25% ($1.0625/yr on a $25 par). For the price to hit $21, the market yield on this issue must fall to \~5.06% ($1.0625 / $21). Bank preferreds historically trade at a 150–250 bps spread over Treasuries to compensate for subordination and perpetual duration. If the 10-year drops to the Fed’s neutral rate of \~3.0%, a normalized spread puts BAC-PRQ yielding 5.0%–5.5%, pricing it between $19 and $21 *at best*. You don't get a 33% gain just because rates normalize; you need long yields to collapse back to near-zero ZIRP conditions. You’re treating the 6.75% current yield as free money while you wait. If the 10-year yield moves from 4.9% to 5.5%—or if long-term inflation expectations shift higher and the yield curve steepens—a zero-maturity fixed paper with infinite duration will drop another 15%–20% in price. That completely erases 2–3 years of your dividend income in mark-to-market losses. The S&P 500 isn't risky just because companies go bankrupt; it’s an asset class where companies grow earnings, hike dividends, and buy back shares to combat inflation. BAC-PRQ has none of that. You take full subordination risk (it is Tier 1 capital, meaning common dividends get cut first, but preferreds are explicitly engineered to absorb balance-sheet pain), zero dividend growth forever, and zero maturity guarantee, all for an equity-like spread. If macro conditions push long yields significantly lower, BofA calls it at $25—capping your upside. If long yields stay elevated or rise, you are locked into a sub-par yield on capital you cannot pull out without selling at a loss. If your thesis is purely "the 10-year Treasury is peaking at 4.9% and heading lower," buying actual long-term Treasuries (like 20+ year bonds or TLT) gives you the exact same interest-rate upside without credit spread risk, non-cumulative deferral risk, or call risk. Why take junior bank capital risk for a trade that is purely an interest-rate duration bet?

TreGet234

TLT bottom is probably in.

SignumHQ

Funny thing about the bond tape right now: while everyone is arguing about how to save treasuries, somebody already put the biggest bond bet on the board - and it went the opposite way from the panic. Yesterday's single largest new options position in bonds was TLT **calls**. 106,885 contracts, roughly $900M notional, opened in the session right before a hot core CPI print. TLT calls pay if long bonds go up, i.e. yields come down. So that is real money betting on treasuries rallying, placed straight into the print that pushed hike odds higher. Either a contrarian duration view, or cheap convexity bolted onto a book that is already short duration. Both are real trades. For scale, the rest of what got opened the same session: * GLD puts - ~$2.97B * IWM puts - ~$2.44B * NVDA calls - ~$2.42B * META calls - ~$1.75B * SMH puts - ~$1.17B * TLT calls - ~$0.90B Gold, small caps, semis and high-yield credit all took puts in the same session that NVDA and META took calls. That is a book keeping its upside and paying up for protection. It is not a everybody-out panic, whatever the headlines say. One thing worth understanding about this data, because it is the part people miss: these are open-interest changes, not volume. Volume cannot tell you whether a trade opened a position or closed one. OI can - but it only settles after the close, so you are always looking one session back. It shows what got *put on*. It tells you nothing about who took the other side. I pull this off the tape every morning. It is consistently the most useful thing on the board and the least talked about.

SignumHQ

Worth adding what positioning looked like going *into* this print, because it did not line up with the hike narrative. Largest **new** options positions opened Thursday across the whole US market, by notional. These are open-interest changes - what was opened, not what merely traded: * GLD puts - 74,750 contracts, ~$2.97B * IWM puts - 84,976 contracts, ~$2.44B * NVDA calls - 111,407 contracts, ~$2.42B * META calls - 25,776 contracts, ~$1.75B * SMH puts - 23,204 contracts, ~$1.17B * TLT calls - 106,885 contracts, ~$0.90B Two observations: **TLT calls are the odd one out.** That is a long-bond position - it pays if yields fall. About $900M of it was opened the session before a core print that pushed hike odds higher. Either a contrarian duration view, or convexity bought against an existing short-duration book. **The equity side is hedged, not bearish.** Gold, small caps, semis and high-yield credit all took put flow in the same session that NVDA and META took call flow. That combination reads as tail protection on a book that is still long, rather than a move to risk-off. Data caveat: open interest only settles after the close, so this is one session behind by construction, and closing trades are excluded. It shows what was put on, not who was on the other side of it.

SignumHQ

Everyone is pricing the hike. The single biggest new bond position on yesterday's tape went the other way. Largest **new** options positions opened Thursday, ranked by notional. This is open-interest change, not volume - what got *put on*, not what got traded: * GLD puts - 74,750 contracts, ~$2.97B * IWM puts - 84,976 contracts, ~$2.44B * NVDA calls - 111,407 contracts, ~$2.42B * META calls - 25,776 contracts, ~$1.75B * SMH puts - 23,204 contracts, ~$1.17B * TLT calls - 106,885 contracts, ~$0.90B TLT calls are a bet on long bonds going **up**, i.e. yields down. Roughly $900M of them opened in the session right before a hot core print. Either somebody is very wrong, or it is cheap convexity stapled to a book that is already short duration. Both of those are real trades. The rest of the board is a hedge cluster, not a tech-crash bet. Gold, small caps, semis and high yield all got puts in the same session while NVDA and META got calls. That is "keep the upside, buy the tail", not "sell everything". Caveats so nobody reads more into it than is there: OI settles after the close, so this is always one session behind. Closing trades are excluded. And it tells you nothing about who took the other side - a put buyer needs a put seller.

EmergencyFair6786

I bought TLT back when it was Maggie Gyllenhaal as the spox. I feel duped. 

No_Presentation9490

why is TLT waking up lmao? up 0.5% in just 10 minutes

-sakuranbo

how much more can TLT drill

TreGet234

This is the moment to load up on TLT. Very very VERY soon.

CautiousToaster

If you’re only chasing yield and not worrying about the principle, you’re doing it wrong. Including coupon payments, TLT has returned -2% annually for the last decade.

MagicJuggler

TLT is red light therapy for me. At least it's not margin. I've been scraping more spare change and fortifying my bond ladder.

HystericalSail

You can pretty much pick your duration. The highest yielding ones are the ones furthest out, to 2075. Well, highest in USD. [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-GOOG/bonds/](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-GOOG/bonds/) Looks like the ones I'm eyeing are now yielding 6.6%, and 13% discount to par. The profit potential for trading over par in case rates drop is not there since they're callable. Anyway, BAC.PRQ is now on my radar. I've pretty much decided on distributing TLT, but not which other fixed income I'll rotate into. I don't expect my hedges to outperform the S&P long term. That's why they're hedges. They are a cost, like any other insurance.

HystericalSail

I'm looking at Google's USD denominated bonds, yielding around 6.5%. Are they any more risky than TLT? I don't think so, definitely not enough to justify a 150 basis point spread. I'll probably pull the trigger and rotate at least half my TLT position into higher quality corporate bonds soon.

rdw0680

TLT puts = free money

NuSk8

Who up catching the falling knife on TLT…

carrollart

So if they raise rates , TLT going to 75?

No_Presentation9490

one shudders to think of who was taking the other side of the trade when TLT dumped 1.3% today

Spac55

TLT. 175 during Covid crash to 81 now

A10cc

Cmon TLT you piece of shit. Break that all time low of $80.51.