TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
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Investment thesis for trading week 10/19 - 10/23
$TLT - Worried about AI? Bonds are cool again
CPI Sets Up Potential for a Squeeze, ASML Reinforces the AI Bull Case
Investment thesis for trading week 10/13 - 10/16
Got assigned on KHC, NOK, HUN, TLT and converted to CC positions
For those investing in bond ETFs, what do you use besides SGOV?
It won't be oil that brings us to our knees...
This is why bond markets are important and you should worry about it.
30-Year Yield Hits 5.44% as Fed Hike Odds Surge Past 70%.
Fed Preview - What Options, Bonds and Positioning Are Telling Us
Gold at $4410, oil at $91, 30yr yield over 5%... anyone else think this is more noise than a real regime shift?
Gold at $4413, oil at $91, 30yr yield over 5%... anyone else think this is more noise than a real regime shift?
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Hit 4.81% (Highest Since Nov 2023)
TLT call credit spread — collecting premium because I can’t refi
Model for delta (strike) ranges, surprisingly hard to develop
I find $TLT very attractive at this stage with a strong squeeze driven by a falling stock market and AI doubts.
June CPI missed big but I'm not buying the full rally yet
Warsh's first FOMC is tomorrow and I have no clue what to do with my port
Bogle vs. Buffet vs. Dalio - Long-Term Investment Strategies Backtested over the last 20 Years
Bogle vs. Buffet vs. Dalio - Long-Term Investment Strategies Backtested over the last 20 Years
$14k yolo on $TLT May/June calls (I know nothing about bonds)
Senate Banking committee to vote on Warsh this coming Wednesday, Bloomberg
I analyzed 584 Fed Chair speech events. Here is what it means for the SPY.
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
We backtested 80+ tactical allocation strategies over 30 years, here's what actually holds up
Sec. of State Marco Rubio heading to Israel March 2-3 to talk Iran, Lebanon, Gaza peace plan – State Dept just announced.
US orders non-essential embassy staff to leave Israel ASAP as Iran war risks spike.
Has anyone noticed how high IBKR's theta calculations are?
Pre-Market Alert: PPI comes in HOT (+0.5% / +3.3% YoY). The "Inflation Reboot" trade.
Pre-Market Prep: "AI Anxiety" hits Software, PPI Inflation & Big Oil Earnings tomorrow.
Made some money off a spy put at ope-n, now swinging TLT calls til tmr
taking advantage of interest and slb rates with deep itm put options on tlt/tmv
I'll just leave this here for $TLT
$TLT - SHORT INTEREST AT RECORD HIGHS
The "Silent Default" Algo. Why the $40T debt is a feature, not a bug (and how we mimic 1945).
The "Silent Default" is here. Why the $40T Debt doesn't matter and SPY is going to the moon.
Penny stock trading: a multi-level-player game that you can win if you are prepared
Markets are ignoring an impending bank crisis, is TLT the next big play?
Four ETFs that thrive on multiple interest rate cuts and a probable strong Q4.
ETFs that benefit from the likely multiple interest rate cuts and a probable strong Q4.
Treasury bonds are gaining popularity as today is likely the start of the first interest rate cut this year.
Bubble worries have sparked my interest in a particular bond ETF
After-Hours Gainers and Losers for Today (September 15, 2025) 📈 📉
Why this algo doesn’t just YOLO one stock.
After-Hours Gainers and Losers for Today (September 12, 2025) 📈 📉
Betting on TLT 20 years and REIT seems a good bet with probable rate cut soon
What is your strategy for the Bond ETFs in light of the probable upcoming rate cut?
What is your plan for the Bond ETFs with the upcoming probable rate cut?
What is your plan for the Bond ETFs with the upcoming probable rate cut?
$600,000 $AMD call option trade + $1.2m hedge
$AMD leaps $TLT Spread trade $1.8M portfolio
Trump lashed out at Powell again, but this time he might not be wrong? $SPY $QQQ $TLT
How I crushed the SnP500 by 200% the past 3 years, shares only
Lowering interest rates will blow-up the economy
Long term Versus Short term is the wrong view point
I've read the book and watched the movie...but I'm still not sure what to do here...
The USD must weaken and three other convictions I have. How would you invest under these assumptions? It's a sincere question and despite my best efforts I'm still 49% moron.
how high can treasuries go before it causes the stock market to crash?
Vertical Put Credit spreads on GLD, SPY, and TLT with small account??
My analysis shows that Market dynamics favour more pressure again today, possibly spilling into Monday, so be patient. However, still supportive into June OPEX it seems, so out of this we will get a nice Buy the Dip opportunity
Mentions
Fair enough. I appreciate you taking the time to explain your thinking. My only caution is to be careful with the assumption that you’ll have plenty of opportunities to get out during rallies. Sure, bear market rallies happen, but recognizing them in real time and knowing when to sell is a lot easier said than done. And that 5.3% yield on TLT won’t offer much relief if NAV drops 10%+. Sounds like you’re comfortable with the risks and have a plan, though. Good luck with it!
I see your points as well and believe me I am constantly assessing the scenarios. If we get stagflation you are right and TLT will tank together with stocks. I will still get 5.3% yearly dividends though. KWEB is only 15% of the porfolio. Not too worried about it. And if stocks really pop there are plenty of opportunities to get out plus there will be plenty of bear market rallies. If this pops it will hurt badly but again it will take years to fully unwind.
Thanks for the explanations. All fair points. I see your logic with TLT if we get a recession and yields drop. But what if stocks sell off because of inflation, rising yields, or valuations just come down? In that case, TLT might not help much and could actually fall alongside stocks. I’m also a little skeptical of KWEB just because it’s sitting near long-term support. Chinese tech has plenty of risks that don’t necessarily show up on a chart. I guess my main question is whether you're putting too much weight on one particular scenario playing out. You're pretty heavily invested for someone who's concerned about rising market risk, no?
Good question. If stocks drop they will drop because of a recession. TLT is extremely rate sensitive and will work as a great buffer. KWEB because chines internet is only 7% of global market and from a chart perspective at longterm support. I bank on a mean reversal there. Why still highly invested? Because overall charts are not completely broken and honestly Friday could have just been a washout. A long green candle would negate everything again. Hope that helps
Interesting take, but I’m confused by the positioning. If you’re seeing more downside risk in the market, why stay 125% invested, especially with exposure to KWEB and TLT? Do you really count TLT as a hedge? We’ve seen stocks and bonds sell off together before, and KWEB isn’t exactly a defensive play either.
Yes but if he is paranoid Sgov is the safest. TLT is a little risky but very little in my opinion. TLT has good upside if you hold it at these levels.
There are a lot of options between these two. SGOV is basically HYSA and TLT is too much duration risk. SHY or IEI are options.
Invest every penny into a TLT or SGOV if you are worried about losing money. SGOV if you are paranoid. Not financial advice. This is better then being in cash
TLT (my marker for long term bonds) are close to 50 day average so I think we could get a pullback there. Meaning yields would rise again but overall I think yields have peaked.
Up 2.68% since full porting into TLT
TLT a 50% rip? Perhaps if shorts are still piled in, combined with French bonds failing and of course Bessent the bondman. Can't see it go that high though...
TLT is a strict 1-2 year swing trade. Could rip +50% rather easily if we enter a global recession (fairly high odds). Gotta build gold on any dips though because of the QE. Then stocks too, probably a global all country basket but hard to tell what will recover first, probably not growth tech but who knows. Wish there were other asset classes but there really is just stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate which is hard to invest in.
says the person insulting me while I never did so, lmao. Anyway I am not even sure how I am supposed to believe you 20x a million dollars account unless you took insane risks. RSP return was 0.34% over the past 5days and that's what you r suggesting me? LMAO 🤌 The real play was noticing that 325 stonks in SPY were red over the past 3months (avg ret -11%). Market simply started rotating on October1st (very convenient day) from leadership into broad, from winners into losers. I've told you bonds and stonks that behave like bonds were a good play and they got an amazing week, while RSP is basically flat. Next week could be different, maybe I buy the dip on AI, maybe I don't, I already reduced some of my exposure to the boring names. and still, I didn't time the market. I simply said "AI stonks here are not good for me, I prefer to buy low risk shit" and guess what happened... TLT is up 3% this week, 7 consecutive green days, huge volume. Just admit you were wrong. Doesn't mean bonds can't go higher next week and tlt crash... but I explained you my reasons and seems people agreed for this week.
TLT scares me I do not understand it
NKE and TLT rebound
Not directly but TLT etc are popular trading instruments
I guess it really is always calls, my TLT/PEP/KO/MCD calls printed big this week LMAO🤌 long bonds short QQQ too easy. Next week buy back in tech. Just be reasonable dude, no need to call this "tImE tHe MaRkEt!!", just dont be regarded perma bol
I might start to day trade TLT ngl
Volatility on TLT is crazy lol
Freak out and buy TLT!
My thought process was one of a caveman. I've been following TLT for since 2022 and I thought TLT being at $83.50 was the floor since it was heavy support before the recent capitulation. So I yolo'd in at $83.50. Feelsbadman
Can we go back to buying TLT?
I don't think people are paying attention. Look at $TLT and tell me you think that is a good investment. Gov is hitting $48 Trillion of debt in 2028. Cash is king for now.
HODL But yeah the yields are only just barely acceptable. Still i rather hold TLT than long euro bonds with less yield and southern europe being a time bomb. (I don't care about the yields, just max convexity)
Only a fucking moron would be invested in TLT. I am a fucking moron.
time to rotate back into TLT. get fuk QQQ
anyone know how bonds work? Like actually work? TLT has such fucking low IV... I wanna start trading it a bit more. I suspect it's gonna be more volatile than market is pricing rn with inflation
buy a TLT call for next friday. it's cheap and should double. then buy yourself a steak
I'm all in on TLT, it's time to cut rates brother
Current Yield on TLT (average maturity 26 years) is 5.0%. 30 year closed at 5.43%. The liquidity is easily worth the 43 bps to me.
You can get a similar yield from an ETF like TLT
I did make money on TLT. No reason I can't enter into the semis trade again even if I took a loss last time.
Oh? I thought your TLT gains made up for the SOXL loss? Also meh SOXL is still close to intra day highs tho
Currently down on it. Stopped out of TLT at the bottom & rotated it into SOXL at the peak today🤦
I should have stayed in TLT calls? unluck
Bessent rigged the bond market to pump stocks. Insane movement on TLT today. Unprecedented.
I binked a solid rotation. Exited SOXL at 115, into TLT calls. +30% on those today, straight back into SOXL at 107. Increased my SOXL holdings by \~40% via that trade. Now just hold long again. Felt like an alright move to me
dumped TLT $79 calls for $10 because rates only go up! Currently $107 REEEEEEEE
alright i join the dark side. TLT -> SOXL again.
C'mon nasdaq, end just a little green, break the red streak so it can continue afterward and TLT can print me some money from the rotation out of tech.
No - the only thing I need is for any large investor to buy bonds... which is clearly happening. TLT moves like a bond, if anyone starts buying the 20yr bonds TLT goes up. The bet was basically "some guys will be buying bonds to de-risk their portfolio here" so TLT goes up. That's exactly what happened, so I'm cautiously holding. I set stops and take profits on my trade already.
I can't predict long term things, I just trade vibes. The rational was basically "some guys gotta be buying bonds given increased risks in our markets". Since TLT moves like a bond, it makes sense to make that bet. The rational for buying bonds is the \~5.7% ticket rate and the increased risks in semi land. EG: I saw an article come out yesterday that an estimated \~80% of neoclouds are projected to be bankrupt by 2030. In that sense - I don't think I'll hold these long term. I'm still holding today (why paper after a 36% gain in a single day) but have placed tight stops on it & already set my take profits.
All in TLT calls. Let's go boys.
There is a difference between buying TLT and buying actual bonds you muppet.
# TLT ALREADY UP 5% THIS WEEK # THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN AND IT'S CALLING YOU THE DUMBASS :kek: :kek: :kek:
TLT trades similar to a bond. Calls are speculating on the risk around bonds & how investors utilize them. I bet that some investors would be buying bonds due to the shitshow over in equities market. Seems they did exactly that this week... resulting in TLT jumping today. It trades like a bond & if people buy bonds the price goes up. Investors would buy bonds for a wide variety of reasons... usually they do it when distressed or managing risks in their portfolio. I don't have long term conviction for these, it was simply a trade. They expire in 3-4 months... that's all it was. "Some investors will buy bonds since it appears appealing at 5.7% rates"
It's me! I'm that idiot. I actually made out ok with TLT puts while Bissent was busy pretending to be the house.
SOXX down 2.5% and TLT up 1.5%, while SPY essentially flat This market is nuts lol
> TLT is an ETF, it's not bonds. It just uses bonds to yield it's dividend / ensure its dividend. I don't understand what you mean. TLT is an ETF that holds Bonds. They are Bonds.
If your timeline is 6-12 months there is no stocks you should be buying. That is the highest risk way to save. You reduce the risk by holding longer, if you find yourself laid off while the market is down (very likely at this point) then you're forced to sell at a loss. I'd probably be looking at something like TLT or IEF for government bond yields.
Sure, but the fact remains that the assets inside TLT (it's old bonds) are currently yielding enough to pay a \~5% dividend buying TLT at face value today. TLT is an ETF, it's not bonds. It just uses bonds to yield it's dividend. View it as TLT pays \~3.89 / share per annum, and any new assets going into it will pay even more (20 yr bonds).
The other consideration - is what is better? I can get over a 5% yield on my capital in TLT here, backed via US debt. What other investment is giving those types of yields? Equities? What about the risk? Where would people rather place their capital?
Feeling good about it today. The idea was simply that TLT pays a 5% dividend here, backed by US bonds. That felt like an alright yield for an ETF that is backed by US bonds. 10 & 100 year average inflation has sat \~3%, and that remains their target. Doesn't that make TLT look cheap / appealing here?
Pfizer been working well in this environment. TLT too
That's basically the rational. Long term (10 & 100yr average) are \~3%, and that remains the target. I can lock in a 5%+ dividend on TLT here, backed by bonds already inside it. Any new buys are locking in a 5.7% rate, so the dividend is between 5-6% of your capital investment, today, with long term targets (and history) of \~3%. It'll probably be fine.
I rotated into TLT calls, which are up a nice 35% today. Makes up for the semi loss in full 👍
It could, sure. But look at the fundamental value long term. TLT has a 5% dividend here & buying it locks in a 5.7% rate for the next 20 years. For anyone who likes safety in their portfolio or dividends - tlt is actually starting to look appealing. People seem to have already forgot that inflation spiked to 9% in 2022. We had a period of difficult to control inflation in somewhat recent history... It moves around all the time. It's always averaged \~3% over the long term tho & remains the FEDs target. IE: Over the last 10 and 100 years an average of \~3% inflation. It could dip in the short term, yes, but long term it's likely an alright bet.
\> In your opinion, push comes to shove they fight inflation instead of saving shitty companies like CRWV? FED still has independence, so imo yes. \> Assuming Fed is serious about inflation. Very hand waved, but: TLT has a \~5% dividend backed by bonds already existing inside of it. Every dollar invested into it today yields a 5.7% dividend. In otherwords, from a fundamental POV TLTs average dividend over the next 20+ years is over 5% / annum. That feels like an alright investment to me... people chasing dividends / looking for safety inside their portfolio often look for far less than 5%. Even in an inflationary environment I suspect that'll remain true. We've seen similar periods before and everything turned out ok... is this time different? IMO probably not
The TLT pump fading is disappointing. Still up massively, broad market pumps are nice.
TLT moving like a meme stock is totally normal, right?
Just wanted to clarify, there's a lot of people trading stuff like TLT rn too. I think you are probably right. Fed will view inflation as transitory and believes there is no underlying structural inflation.
I bought a bunch of TLT the last week, yep.
My regarded senses are blinking. TLT & IWM are green
Being a boomer and buying TLT
TLT up 2.05% :shrek:
Sold my TLT leaps two days ago now its shrek dicking
I don't get it. If the rates keep getting hiked, TLT will dip even more.
anyone have BTAL? it’s an ETF that shorts high beta stocks and is long low beta, so did really well yesterday, I have a small portion. wish I had more. I like it more than TLT becuase if things really tank this thing will pump. but I guess at the same time I could buy spy or qqq puts.
why? TLT never goes up - it only steadily goes down
People thinking that doesnt lead to a 2% pump in TLT
Why is TLT going up?
buy the bonds dip, TLT is at a great discount and it's cheap, let stonks fall some more first
If only I just went all-in on TLT, everything would've been fine. Holy moly
TLT calls had an IV of 13%
Up \~50-60% if premarket holds, in less than 24 hours. TLT pays a 5% dividend here backed by US bonds. A 5% dividend is really good compared to alternatives here, especially with the risks rising everywhere else in the economy.
Well the point of my comment was to inform you that you didn't "rotate into bonds". You bought calls on a bond fund. The difference is night and day. In a rising yields environment TLT gets absolutely murdered. Yields have taken a bit of a breather this week after an impressive run up. Imo yields will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. If you want to call it a great trade, thats fine. You'll definitely be in profit at the opening bell. But be warned, when yields continue rise (and they almost certainly will) this trade is going to go in the wrong direction for you. I really don't care what you decide to do, its not my money and its not my life. I just thought I'd let you know you didn't buy bonds, you bought a bond fund and if you aren't very careful this shit is going to bite you. Gl whatever you decide.....
I mean, as long as you dont plan to hold until expiration and actually sell today or tomorrow or whatever then sure you'll have made a profit. But I can almost guarantee you yields will continue to rise and thus TLT will fall through Q4. If you hold this to election day even then you'll be cooked. Mark my words. Gl whatever you decide, you've definitely got huge balls.
Taking profit isn't the ridiculous part. Putting that capital into TLT is. TLT isn't bonds, its a bond fund. Big difference. Look at the chart for TLT and see how that garbage performs in a rising rates environment. What you did is actually fucking retarded. But good luck anyways....you're gonna need it, lol.
U can buy puts on bond etfs (ie TLT for 20 yr treasury)
got into TLT calls tho. Holy dang did those ones hit
https://preview.redd.it/de7zuv3dzkvh1.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2be59f94781952343d59037c30e3e811e95d031 TLT trades near 52W low ($77.84) on high long-end yields; Fed easing offers duration upside against structural US deficit headwinds.
Take a look at that TLT, mah calls
Yah - I sold literally every semi today. Straight into calls on TLT.
I have no idea, I bet on vibes. Speaking of which - I bet on TLT yesterday.
The options on TLT are actually scarily liquid, I have no clue who tf is trading them except OP
don't go into $TLT, just STFU and put the fries in the bag sir
TLT has been downhill since the beginning of 2022. But sure, it’ll bounce for you!
nah every single thing I'm seeing says go long TLT but I just refuse
I didn't know you could buy options on freaking TLT lmao, god bless America!
TLT moved \~0.66% today, options increased by \~17%. 17% / 0.66 = \~25-26%. The 30 was a ballpark estimate. You can also use [https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/](https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/)
I have some TLT calls but not enough
TLT being up on hot CPI probably a very bullish signal but I refuse to be long bonds
Why is TLT already up almost 1% AH lol
I just read a comment from [Own-Recipe5908](https://www.reddit.com/user/Own-Recipe5908/) essentially saying that TLT will be a rare commodity if Bessent is a retard and cancels 20 year treasuries. As stupid as this sounds...could there be some truth in this? Lol you own the last of the 20 years, maybe that actually does carry a premium. And canceling 20 years would be pure retardation, so that's why I think it has a fairly high chance of actually being done by this admin.
I went almost all cash last week. I’m letting my aapl leaps ride. Have a couple other shit positions but I didn’t throw much at them. TLT is intriguing though!