TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
It’s fine. I could have held GLD for another day with T+1 settling on Tuesday whether I sold on Friday or Monday, which would have been some extra cash. But I also sold some TLT which didn’t do great today. Almost evened out. 🤷♂️
It's easier to take some leveraged risks when my port is basically 50% gold & 50% $TLT. Even gold seems very frothy right now. But I can't bring myself to take profits when it's hitting new ATH's every fricking week.
TLT finally moving up, but probably too little, too late.
i should have bought GLD instead of TLT after liberation day
I swear I answered this from my phone, did you see a reply? Well, I'll answer again; hopefully I'll say the same thing! Something is ALWAYS going up, even in a bear market; it's our job to find it. If nothing else, it'll be one of the 40 or so non-leveraged *inverse* ETFs out there. But I plan to just keep doing what I do: Watch my positions. When they roll over (I hope you know what I mean by that), find something else that's going up. That means screening all non-leveraged ETFs with options. Sort by 3-month performance. **Look at charts.** <-- this is so key; your eyes know a 'good' chart that's going up. Pick one(s) that's going up. Barchart makes all that so easy for me, but I do pay $20/month for Premium or whatever they call it. After sorting all optionable ETFs by 3-month performance, it's so quick to look through their charts on a 6-month view using their "Flipcharts" feature. Other sites may have something similar. I just commented to u/LabDaddy59 a couple days ago that the stock tickers he looks for (quantum computing, small reactors, plus whatever else), doing that, a person might go through a whole bear market and not even know there was one going on if they didn't pay attention to the news or track the indexes. A 2022-type market I'm sure some ETFs will always be going up. 2008-2009, I'm not so sure, unless you tap into the inverses. On the major indices you've got SH, MYY, SBB, PSQ, DOG, RWM, maybe some others. I didn't check for options on those. And if I just absolutely couldn't find an ETF that was going up "smoothly" (always my overriding criterion), then yes, I guess I'd go to cash for 3/5ths of the portfolio. Because I plan to always keep 20% in TLT (20y Treasuries), and 20% in GLD (unless maybe it goes into a long-term decline and selling CCs doesn't net a positive return). Does any of that make sense based on your experience?
TLT went up 1.6% ! BTW: Holder of TLT [https://imgur.com/8t8chI5](https://imgur.com/8t8chI5)
**Title question**: If stocks are at an all time high and gold is at a an all time high, then what is not at an all time high **My asnwer**: US treasury ETFs are not all time high, buy TLT and TMF (I believed that and bought TLT on Thursday).
Rare earth metals based in the USA, silver, maybe TLT. Not much else I would recommend at this point in the bull run without potential huge losses.
The only ones on my list the held up were Gold, JNJ, PG, TLT, TLH. Gold, long bonds, and non-tech blue chips.
40% VTI 30% TLT 30% GLD https://testfol.io/?s=iELKC9pCxx8 In the last 30 years this allocation has never had a negative 60 month CAGR. Meaning in a 5 year period your almost certain you'd end up more than what you started with.
TLT - after inflation comes deflation
TLT was up 1.6% Friday. On the other hand, it’s down 43% in the last 5 years. Is this the turnaround we’ve been waiting years for? I don’t know, but I’ve thought it a few times the last few years, and I was wrong. I’ll stick with SGOV for now.
NDX Peak of 21 to trough of 22 .. 2.272 extension The trough of 22 and the peak of 25 was 100 ndx pts away from hitting the 1.272 as well I'm looking for some gap fills on the way down to start scaling into positions. AAPL almost hit ($3 away) MSFT hit fib NVDA hit fib many tickers hit their extensions. TLT looks to be ready to boogie too.
If you buy this dip good luck. I bought in a big way on April 9th but got out back at the beginning of May and went to TLT. I'm not stepping into this market until after the fireworks is over. The 1930s trade wars and tariffs were devastating. This will be too. Neither sides leadership will suffer personally from economic pain in the short term, but will be punished politically if they fail to get a favorable deal. Given time and pain from economic collapse that calculus will change but we are a long ways from that. Im not saying a short term deal can't be reached but a longer term deal to resolve this is highly unlikely to happen at this time. Without that longer term deal the economic pain is still coming. More people are waking up to that so getting in now is basically taking their place in line and you can be the bag holder. Market top is probably in and bottom could be a short distance away or it could be years away. I think this pain can go on for a long time before it's resolved. My one hope is that China insists any deal be approved by Congress with strong bipartisan support. That will force a more reasonable deal or prove no deal can be reached. China might go for that because it would make them out to be the more reasonable trade partner going forward and that has value to them.
TLT is very liquid in both stock and options. Not sure about ZROZ.
Other assets I've been buying are bond ETFs, they have been fairly stable. Most have low volatility but are somewhat sensitive to changes with the rates. I've been buying securities with 30 day yields that are taxed advantaged. These were the only profits I kept when the market tanked Friday. The two tax advantaged ETF bonds are VTEB and HYD. IIRC, there are others too, another specific ETF I was thinking about adding was GOVT, to focus on 10 year bonds. AFAIK it is also tax advantaged. For exposure to volatility in the bond market I buy TLT. I also buy short term bond ETF TBIL but it took a hit when the shutdown was announced.
ZROZ/TLT calls could work no? Problem is that they have really thin liquidity.
TLT lel good luck! It never works! 🤣
I bought TLT calls last week literally out of boredom.
In my case I'm sitting on a bunch of TLT. As much as people say that US debt is fubar I live in the US and will continue to live in the US. I'm not certain it will do well, but I have a strong belief that everything else will do worse with the exception of some commodities. Gold for example has a long history of doing well before the crash and then plunging once the crash has happened. I don't want to take risk. I also sold calls on my TLT so my actual yield is slightly better than the dividend. If I was going to remain in stocks I would diversify into a wide variety but with a tilt towards defensive stocks. If you don't want to actively manage things I would go the boglehead route. To be clear these ideas will underperform the market or match the market at best until the market rolls over. When the market rolls over though they will rapidly shine. I like to sleep well at night and this approach allows that. If you have a different risk tolerance you might be willing to ride the edge and I did that last year. It worked really well for me but the risks to the market are elevated now and I didn't want to run those risks.
Gold and TLT were the two parts of my portfolio that went up. Actually, telecom caught a bid as well. Everything else was red. Even Lithium America (small position) went heavy red, while the precious metals (MP for instance) went heavy green. Not really sure why the divergence there. Anyway, yesterday tells me what I already knew, when the shit really hits the fan the only safe place will be cash, long-term bonds, and maybe gold. At least initially. It was interesting to see crypto shit the bed. I would not want to be holding crypto during the next market crash.. it's beyond clear it's going to sell off more than anything else.
Another TLT holder? Never met one in the wild. I've also been being into NLY for the interest rate play.
oh this could be crazy... does TLT just not trade??
Right, I think we're in agreement on a lot of things. And the things where we diverge don't matter to the broad-brush making money picture. 15-20 delta CCs, that's been me. Specifically 16-delta because that's the Expected Move point. And now that I've been looking at covering theta-per-day of the longs, 8-15 delta is about where I've been hitting. But like you said, I'll probably give up CCs generally. I do want to keep them on **TLT** though, which will be 20% of my port (kind of like your 30% cash). There I need the Calls to at least not *lose* too much money. And a 4-week 15-delta CC against a LEAPS Call is projecting north of 25% apy. And that's a decent return in itself, never mind what the LEAPS Calls do. Oh, the chart: someone here the other week posted a chart like that and I noted the url: StockAnalyisis. I haven't dived any deeper into the website than its pretty charts, but they're MUCH quicker to load for me than Yahoo Finance. So I've been using it a lot.
Exactly. I moved 20% of my portfolio into a MM fund and TLT earlier this week. Next few trading days might get sporty but if you buy with blood in the way, I believe you’ll be rewarded.
*Holy leverage, Batman!* 100 LEAPS on Nvidia!?!?! But no, I'm not saying that NOW you would/should buy 100 \~100DTE Calls. All I was saying is that for an **initial deployment** maybe do an equal amount of each. Anyway, I'm a little sorry I even brought it up initially, it just adds more risk. Let's just stick to putting profits into 100-day Calls. I don't keep cash (except TLT & GLD), but I see how cool it is that you're using rolling to maintain that 30%. And your portfolio is more aggressive than most, I dare say! Be good.
Holy shit up $3200 today with TLT 🫣
Ok I shaved 20k off TLT and GLD. I’ll let that marinate over the weekend then see what Monday looks like for dip-buying.
Oh man, you had **APLD** Calls before earnings today? I bet *they* popped! That was the first thing I saw on the Yahoo Finance home page this morning. I don't use margin, though I have it available on one of my accounts (\~41k). I don't see the need for it with the kinds of gains I'm getting. Have I mentioned in this thread 10.9% last week? And 8.9% the week prior. Then 5.0% and 10.2%. 8% per week on average, that's HUGE. I don't keep any cash per se, but the Model Portfolio I'm running in ToS's Paper Money (and will soon be doing with 100k of real cash whenever my rollover check makes it to Schwab) holds 20% **GLD** and 20% **TLT**. TLT is essentially a cash-equivalent, but gold to an extent also. The other (3) 20% slots will be ETFs I pick based on their momentum. Currently **MAGS, SILJ,** & **SMH**. Let me/us know how your LEAPS Calls work out!
Fuck it, I’m trimming a little TLT and GLD for SOXL. Just a little. Just the tip.
TLT my highest performer today. Does not bode well.
u/Seaguard5 Now, you see the issue, SPX dropped and TLT jumped, that is the beauty of market dynamics. Seen this trick over and over last 8 years, taking advantage of this SPX vs TLT. Exactly this happened between Jan 10th,2025 and Apr 7th, 2025 when market dropped, TLT spiked.
The hardest part is not selling TLT to go leveraged S&P now. But I’ll wait.
Just think, if you had 100k in TLT you could yolo about $350 monthly on 0DTEs with the dividend.
Right now my model portfolio holds **MAGS, SMH,** & **SILJ**. I don't know what you mean exactly by "asymmetric assets," but GLD and TLT are also in my portfolio because they're somewhat inversely-correlated to the market. For instance, today with the Big Goober dumping on China: SPY is down 1.8% GLD is up 0.7% TLT is up 1.4% It's not like that every day, but they do seem to dampen the fluctuations. And I'm selling CCs against those 2, so even on days when they're flat or down they're making at least *some* money. Let me/us know how you get on!
lol even TLT is getting a little pump
TLT kings, we up bigly 😎 I’m up $2400 today around 1%.
TLT / VGLT up big. me like
all most stocks tanked and my TLT skyrocketed.
Short NASDAQ by shorting TQQQ and shorting SQQQ as a hedge. Long VXX and also short VXX as a hedge. Long XLF by shorting FAZ Long TLT by being long TMF Neutral semis by being short SOXS and also short SOXL at the same exposures.
You can diversify with SPHY and TLT.
I was laughing along with you, I hope you realize that. I used to sell at 30 days and 60 days (always at 80-delta), but it felt like those were too volatile, so I made for myself "never less than 90 days." So you might consider that too. What you said about the IV of LEAPS Calls being higher made me curious, so I went and checked some that I trade. Couldn't get close to 60DTE today, so I went with the 71DTE vice the 50DTE expiration: |Ticker|71DTE IV|463DTE IV| |:-|:-|:-| |GLD|21.3%|19.7%| |XME|31.0|30.2| |SMH|36.1|35.6| |MAGS|29.0|32.0| |TLT|16.0|16.3| |GDX|41.1|34.6| |IWM|24.6|26.0| Some higher, some lower, so I don't think IV is the reason that LEAPS are "so expensive." It's simply because you're buying more time at 365 days out than 60. But even though it's more theta you're buying, did you know that the theta-per-day is lower for LEAPS Calls? That's what makes them attractive: it costs you less per day, per week, per month to own them than shorter-dated Calls. Here's the numbers for the first 3 tickers above, choosing an 80-delta (or closest to) strike in each expiration: |Ticker|71DTE theta per day|463DTE theta per day| |:-|:-|:-| |GLD|8.9 cents|5.6 cents| |XME|4.2c|2.0c| |SMH|12.4c|6.8c| Averaging those up, it costs 4.8 cents per day to own a LEAPS Call, vs. 8.5 c/day to own a 71DTE Call. That's 77% more "overhead" if you will, owning the 71DTE Calls. And vega I don't even want to think about, because I don't think it matters. Take care.
Is that dude with $400k of AMD calls still holding? The guy with the TLT hedge
Hi again! Yeah, with no new money coming in you'd need to work out for yourself what that all looks like. I'll give you an idea to think about though. Last Wednesday in ToS's Paper Money side I set up what's going to be my "5 ETF LEAPS Call Portfolio" when the money I've requested as a rollover from my government TSP (like a 401k) hits my Schwab Rollover IRA account any day now. I'll just go ahead and give you all of it, since you might find it interesting. 20% in each: GLD - will probably always have a place, unless it starts going down over months. TLT - Treasuries, same as above, but it probably stays regardless of what it does. I consider this (and gold somewhat) the "cash" part of my account. MAGS SILJ SMH The last 3 came from my screening process, which I've describe elsewhere. Also the managing of those I've described elsewhere, but the idea is to ride them up until they taper off, then screen again and replace. To answer your first question: today I took some profits out of MAGS and bought some SILJ 134DTE Calls (the closest I could get to 100-120 days, without going under). How why did I choose to put the profits in SILJ and not MAGS or one of the others? I plotted them against each other and evaluated trends. SILJ was 'better' on the 1-year, 6-month, 3-month, and 1-month views. It also happened to be the highest return over each of those time periods, but that only makes up maybe half of my decision-making process. It was 'smooth,' and if you've read me for long, you know I like smooth. AND it didn't have any big drops; that might've kicked it out in favor of something without. Always just plain-old long Calls. For any others reading this (and to re-affirm it for myself), buying Calls is dead-simple. If they're deep ITM LEAPS Calls, it's almost the same as buying stocks. We all know how to buy stocks; I just use LEAPS Calls for their leverage. Don't get me wrong, I know how to do all the kinds of Spreads, and I've done them all with real money, but now I don't have to worry about: How far out? What strike for the long leg? What strike for the short leg? How is current or future IV going to affect this thing? What's the Probability of Profit? Oh, and what's the ROI? Oh right, I have to calculate the width of the spread, subtract the Debit from that, then divide that into the....what is it again? Oh never mind! Sure, Bull Call Spreads aren't THAT complicated. BUT THEY'RE NOT *INTUITIVE* EITHER. That's what I LOVE about deep ITM LEAPS Calls: once you forget that they're *options*, and really start to think of them as **stock substitutes**, they become just like buying and selling stock shares.
I'm game for you to try it, but I don't know how one could backtest what ETF picks I'd make at any given time. But sure, if you just want to do some Monte Carlo risk of ruin runs on some generic assumptions and allocation sizes, maybe. Here's my trading plan: 20% in GLD 20% in TLT 20% in X 20% in Y 20% in Z Where X, Y, & Z are initially chosen based on a 3-month performance lookback of all US ETFs with options. But it's not as simple as picking the top 3 from that sort, because then I look at charts, and am looking for 'smooth'. You know it when you see it, but I don't know that there's any way to quantify that (AI could probably do it, even at a specific date some time in the past. And then as one tapers off (I call it "rolling over": when the ETFs value today is less than it was a month ago), I sell it and buy a new one. That's the piece that I see as most non-backtestable: you'd have to calculate that point in time for each holding, and then run the replacement ETF scan at that time. And "risk of ruin," doesn't that assume that you don't do anything with the positions once you put them on? If so, where's the risk management in that? I'm not a "VOO and 2 or 3 other things" guy who's building a portfolio today that'll never change until I die. And I don't take more than 50% losses on each trade, per my rules. And sure, an underlying *stock* could tank enough in a day or two (to make my LEAPS Call lose half) that I might not see it, but not ETFs. Let me know if I need to provide anything else. Cheers!
Going to post this here one more time. Bols be careful buying this dip for the next ~5% to the downside. Risks are building quietly beneath the surface of the market euphoria. Between AI circle jerk and meme stock frenzies, theres cracks forming in the plumbing of the markets. St louis fed financial stres index is creeping higher, overnight reverse repo market is down to just 5 billion, the TGA is still climbing, Credit spreads are widening and my real time indicator using the spread of HYG+JNK/TLT is plummeting in a similar fashion leading into the April selloff. All of this is indicative of liquidity drying up, and possible plumbing issues with the foundation of the financial system. VIX has been slowly creeping higher along with equities likely a result of hedging flows. There is a real good chance the rug is about to be pulled on retail.
Risks are building quietly between the surface of the market euphoria. Between AI circle jerk and meme stock frenzies, theres cracks forming in the plumbing of the markets. St louis fed financial stres index is creeping higher, overnight reverse repo market is down to just 5 billion, the TGA is still climbing, Credit spreads are widening and my real time indicator using the spread of HYG+JNK/TLT is plummeting in a similar fashion leading into the April selloff. All of this is indicative of liquidity drying up, and possible plumbing issues with the foundation of the financial system. VIX has been slowly creeping higher along with equities likely a result of hedging flows. There is a real good chance the rug is about to be pulled on retail.
I don't mind posting them in the open, because I know they're solid selections. But rather than giving you a fish, I'd rather teach you *how* to fish. I made this little [screen capture video](https://imgur.com/a/barchart-etf-screening-VbwTWxy) last week for someone to show how I screen on Barchart. You'd probably need to pay for BC Premium to be able to do some of the things, but this gives you an idea. *Especially* pay attention when I start showing what a 'good' chart looks like. There's no audio, just follow the cursor. **Here are the generic steps:** Open ETF Screener. Unselect all the leveraged ones (but leave the -1/Inverse box checked). Add just 1 screening criteria: Has Options (that pretty much takes care of Volume) Hit 'Add' so that moves down to the screening pane, then click See Results. Sort by 3-month performance. We want to know what's doing well *right now.* Now *THE* MOST IMPORTANT PART: click on "**flipcharts**" and start looking through charts. (Change to Line, and keep the view at 6 months.) Find ones that are up and **smooth**. Don't worry about what the ETF is or anything else, just the price action: up and SMOOTH. Then pick 5 or so that aren't closely correlated. (Like I wouldn't pick gold *and* the gold miners. And I wouldn't pick 2 China ones if those screened in.) Then go buy LEAPS Calls on them and get rich. Here are the 5 I put in my model portfolio last Wednesday: **GLD** \- gold is probably always going to have a place **TLT** \- and Treasuries will probably also have a place **MAGS** **SMH** **SILJ** Granted, silver and gold are somewhat correlated, but one is the gold metal, while the other is silver *miners*. It's okay for me, but might not be for you. Let's see what those look like on a [6-month chart.](https://imgur.com/a/a2I4lFX) Pretty good, right? TLT is flat, but that's okay; it's there to be the 'cash' part of the portfolio. Plus I'm making north of 30% apy selling CCs against it. GLD is similar, meant to be 'cash' and/or a hedge against inflation. But 36% in 6 months is a great return. And the others? *138% in 6 months?* Have you ever heard of such a thing from an ETF? But they're out there. Catch the wave and ride it up, that's the idea. But you have to monitor, and cut them when they roll over. Don't ride them back down. In other words, don't buy and *hold*. Buy and *monitor*. Step off one escalator onto the next one. And note that I didn't pick any of those 3 because they were up the *most*. I picked them because their charts were *smooth*. Up, sure, but smooth is more important. So there you go, now go forth and prosper!
invest in TLT first, then the rate is low enough after the bubble lost some air, then you can invest. SPY should drop at least 15% from current level.
I OVERSHOT MYSELF AND CONVINCED MY NEWLY MET GF **IN AUGUST** THAT SHE SHOULD CONSIDER SELLING HER VOO IN HER TFSA (Roth IRA for my southern fren) AND BUYING TLT AND REAL ESTATE SHITCOS. She **did**. BUT THE ISSUE IS, VOO's UP 5% SINCE AND HER POSITION IS 18% DOWN. (we were happy 3 weeks ago until the rate cut) and now she wants to meet to discuss "things"....... HOW DO I GASLIGHT HER IN A RECOVERING SCENARIO or HOW SOON SHOULD I INSTALL TINDER AGAIN? Thank you for your attention to this matter
Government not giving backpay to employees > more money for government > more available money for paying off debts > less risk > rates down > TLT up Just kidding i have no clue
Tf happened? Why my TLT so green?
I'm mostly invested in $PHYS (Gold) and $TLT. I still have a large position in At&T that I bought at the bottom 2 years ago when all the doomers claimed the gov't was going to make At&T pull out all that cancer causing underground cables. Gold has outperformed AI during this bubble so I would consider myself long.
Whew, lots of "portfolio management" questions in there! Let me start by giving you my mindset. I don't do "allocations" like a lot of people do. So much in Large Cap, Small Cap, Growth, Treasuries, Gold, Cash, etc. And I don't try to predict what should do well. I only react to price information. And I don't think on a 30-year timeline. 6 months is a long time for me. I don't do individual stocks anymore, only ETFs. I hope those statements 'answer' some of your questions. But here's what I do. And I'll be doing it and journaling it here with 100k if the check from the government's stupid Thrift Savings Plan people ever makes it into my Rollover IRA at Schwab. I'd hoped that was going to be last week, but it still hasn't posted. 5 ETFs. 20% into each. GLD will probably always be one of them. As will TLT. Then pick 3 more based on recent peformance. Those I find using Barchart's ETF Screener, with these parameters: Has Options, no 2x or 3x stuff; but -1 is okay. And that's it. "Has Options" satisfies any Volume criterion I might apply. Sort those by 3-month performance. **Then look at their charts.** On a 6-month or 1-year view. That's the key right there: ***look at charts.*** Because [momentum persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references). Find it. Jump on it. Get off when it starts to slow down. If you've been too indoctrinated by the financial press to see that, grab a handy 5th-grader and have him/her tell you which charts are going up, and which are going down. It's really that simple. And you're not just looking for UP, but SMOOTH. Barchart just now found 1,273 ETFs with options that are 1x or -1x. I sorted by 3-month performance. WEED was #1, with a whopping 141% gain over the past 3 months. But about 20 down the list, SILJ has a much nicer/smoother chart. [Here they are plotted together over 6 months. ](https://imgur.com/a/cC3agLs) (And remember: it's the 6m view I look at, even though I sort by 3m.) ***Which ride would you rather be on?*** If you can't tell, ask your 5th-grader. So that's what I do. Pick like that initially, buy LEAPS Calls, then monitor. If one starts slowing down, I don't cut it until it's below where it was a month ago. When I need to cut a loser, I scan again for a replacement. Let winners run as long as they want to. And sell CCs along the way on everything.
Anyone thinking TLT? No? No one? Sorry,
Druckenmiller has been shorting TLT from 50% ago. I wouldn’t be so confident.
IBKR advertising TLT on here now. what could go wrong? loading more TMV calls
Why is TLT so fucked? Are yields really blasting because of japan?
Where's that one guy with a million in AMD calls and was like "holding $500k TLT as a hedge"
Should’ve been more conservative and held on to TLT shares 😂
Waiting on TLT. CNC is going good. Hopefully $40+.
ZROZ is like a leveraged version of TLT, gives noncorrelation or negative correlation to equities with slightly positive expected return. I actually use EDV for even more negative correlation but for backtesting purposes ZROZ has a longer time period availability. KMLM is much the same, diversification against equity, gold, and treasury bonds exposure with positive expected returns in the long run.
Kind of curious. What is the basis behind KMLM and ZROZ? FWIW, I tried a 1/3 TQQQ, 1/3 UPRO, 1/6 TLT, 1/6 BTAL leveraged ETF portfolio in my HSA and didn't see the same results as the backtest. Maybe I was really bad at executing, didn't sell in 2022, but chose to deleverage early this year. Don't regret doing that b/c I sleep better.
Move to long term government bonds like TLT or VGLT. You could move to a stable value fund or money market but interest will be 0% in a recession.
Did you end up choosing TLT over SP500?
Port update: long MSFT, ORCL, TSLA, NVDA and AMZN; short TLT and SLV. Sold all profitable positions and get ready for the correction.
I've got the same question. It seems spreads will continue to increase in this environment so I don't believe long dated bond funds such as TLT will do that well over the coming years. Short term rates decreasing may cause some investors to move more into stocks. The dollar weakness makes foreign stocks look more attractive right now, but will that trend last? Jeff Gundlach believes we'll continue to see foreign stocks, gold and hard asset outperformance. But who knows. It's all far too complex and dynamic for any of us to understand and profit from. Efficient markets and all that. So the best course is and always has been a well diversified portfolio, consistent with the investors risk profile and time horizon.
Playing TLT should be interesting next week with all the bond sales. Especially because a 89.5c/89.5p strangle is like 90 bucks.
Short 90 strike calls on TLT expiring today, that selloff literally relaxed my booty hole by 16 psi of pressure
You can change to VOO:20% and TLT:20%
If I don’t get Gap Up/Down 🍇ed I should be looking at my TLT condor making some McDonald’s and getting drunk money
Papa please give me a TLT post lunch break selloff
fuck, i clicked on the wrong date on the options chain and now i have an overnight risk condor. Since when does TLT not have 0dte on Thursdays?
TLT Iron Condor, Please Clap
Treasuries are just gonna inverse the dollar until shutdown is over. Literally trade TLT as is it were EURUSD
My point is that in almost all scenarios in which gov bonds (aka someone else’s debt) like TLT grow, there are always better assets that rise more, giving you more gain. Growth stocks and mid caps for example. You wanna buy TLT because of rate cuts? Go right ahead, I think there are better assets benefiting from rate cuts.
And in a rate shock scenario when demand for long bonds plummets due to fiscal economic irresponsibility how does TLT perform? (Answer provided in chart of 2022)
the moment duration started moving towards TLT's effective zone is when my portfolio stopped looking like a mad max movie
This will be controversial, but at this point the best contrarian play is buying long term bonds (or TLT). It hedge in case AI bubble burst and we fall into a recession. Payout is pretty asymmetrical at this point.
Dollar will keep going down and possibly TLT up at the same time in a nightmare spiral
Nonsense, TLT rises every time the Fed's position trends more dovish. The long bond rates still depend more on the Fed's rate than anything else.
TLT needs to hang on for dear life
the only tickers i know are SPY and TLT i just have to guess the specific company by how others sound
TLT above 90 dollars, 0dte calls will be your powerball ticket. snopes fact true verified btw
Short SPY and TLT Puts, market gonna shrek today
That TLT pop made me feel like I’m living in a simulation designed to jack with me.
I need a huge pump on TLT. NGL.
TLT about to go wild if market crashes.
TLT puts seem absurdly cheap given the state of things