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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

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TLT Calls $40k YOLO

2022-11-28 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)

r/optionsSee Post

SPY/TLT/TNX/DXY correlation

A reminder as the TLT starts taking off

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

The Recession has already happened, and you missed it - Part 2

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

2022-11-15 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)

r/stocksSee Post

What broad impacts will the bond crash have?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TLT PUTS $25.8k YOLO

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TLT Calls 10k YOLO

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

If you think drawdown in TLT was bad, check Austria's 100 years bond.

r/investingSee Post

JEPI (JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF ) 10% yield...seems too good to be true.

r/investingSee Post

TLT and long-term rates question

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Why does a U.S long-term treasury bond ($TLT, $VUSTX) smoothly go up regardless of the market condition and Fed rate?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

$UNH - Still Some Good Shorts Out There

r/investingSee Post

Financial Times article about 'vicious circle' (bonds)

r/stocksSee Post

Concerns about 2008 re-run / credit freeze up (FT.com)

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Replay of 2008 coming? Doesn't look good IMHO.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

The bond market is literally imploding, equities are guaranteed to also implode soon enough

r/StockMarketSee Post

Oil crashing is great for the Nasdaq; watch for VIX and TLT spikes up

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Understanding the current macro environment + capitulation play

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Half of y'all are the equivalent of a German living in Berlin during April 1945, read the room and make money from it

r/investingSee Post

Best Treasury bond ETF to buy right before the Fed slashes rates from 4.5% to 0%? Why isn't TLT performance inverted vs SHY this year?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TLT - Local Bottom?

r/investingSee Post

Bond ETF valuation mechanics not behaving, any ideas why?

r/optionsSee Post

Expected moves this week. TLT, QQQ, Autozone, FedEx, Costco.

r/stocksSee Post

2 Year Treasury

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

🎃 why ARKK calls for witching🎃

r/investingSee Post

Charles Schwab Tax Efficiency Calculator Accuracy?

r/stocksSee Post

Can someone explain the TLT 20yr Treasury play?

r/investingSee Post

Inverse relationship between SPX and TLT appears to have ended its long run.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

What are peoples thoughts on the ten year treasury?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

The Treasury Market is fucking nuts right now and everyone is focused on equities, degenerate profits can be made

r/stocksSee Post

Is Now the Time for Bond Funds

r/stocksSee Post

QQQ, TLT, and bitcoin down big on Friday but oil stabilizing

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TLT, HYG, JNK, & LQD: Bond Market Sell Off & Fed Reaction/ Discussion

r/investingSee Post

People who understand bonds/TLT, what are they telling us about the existing/upcoming market and do they have the potential to spike again

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

CPI Eve Regards

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Treasuries? Specifically TLT ETF?

r/wallstreetbetsOGsSee Post

Trading the GDP print (/ZN and $TLT)

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Is anyone else extremely tempted to go big on put options for Faze Clan with the after-hours rally?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

IV Is Pretty Cheap On Treasuries Despite Recent Volatility

r/StockMarketSee Post

$TLT $MBB steady up

r/investingSee Post

With a good PCE is TLT/TMF a good buy right now?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

The $IWM : $TLT spread has a consolidating range

r/optionsSee Post

Is TLT a sure winner in this market?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Both bonds and gold have been resisting the last few days of selling, and if March 2020 is anything to go by, that is a very good sign for the market.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

July FOMC - Fed Pumps the brakes

r/stocksSee Post

What do TLT and BND track. Is it bond prices or bond yields?

r/optionsSee Post

Should I close TLT today? Advice needed!

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Week of 6-13-22: Most Important Charts #004

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Week of 6-13-22: Most Important Charts #004

r/wallstreetbetsOGsSee Post

Inflation: What to Expect and How to Defend Yourself $TBT , $UVXY

r/investingSee Post

Need advice on TLT vs HYSA

r/investingSee Post

Need advise on TLT vs HYSA

r/investingSee Post

Inflation: What to Expect and How to Defend Yourself

r/investingSee Post

Going 50/50 US/EX-US? Am I crazy?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Week of 6-6: Most Important Charts to Watch #003

r/optionsSee Post

"The Trend is your Freind"...Still works

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You want to buy some shit and make some money? I know you do.

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Long bonds?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Week of 5-23: Most Important Charts to Watch #002

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GDX calls are gonna print very soon.

r/investingSee Post

Can TLT yield change if price stays the same?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

I told you so, but you didn't listen. Here's what's coming next in 2022.

r/stocksSee Post

What is the most direct way for retail investors to trade interest rate movements? How about inflation data?

r/stocksSee Post

Calling the Top

r/optionsSee Post

Trading Cash-Secured Puts like a bond ladder

r/stocksSee Post

Is the TLT inverse to SPY?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TLT ripping on the back of a hot CPI read. JPOW must be pleased

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Nasdaq on ~11000 fair value eoy 2022

r/investingSee Post

Stagflation ETF Launches as Fed Attempts to Tame Sky-High Prices

r/investingSee Post

Will bonds drop as rates hike, or is it already priced in?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Wall Street Newsletter 2 : The "5 Questions" that every Wall Street guy is asking but no one is answering.

r/stocksSee Post

Year in Review: When in doubt, trust your research

r/stocksSee Post

Why are bonds returning negative?

r/stocksSee Post

Bulletproof Portfolios

r/stocksSee Post

Prove me wrong: It's a good time and price to invest in US treasury bonds.

r/investingSee Post

Can both stock market and bonds market go down simultaneously?

r/optionsSee Post

Capital Deployment

r/optionsSee Post

Free Money? TLT HYG Leaps

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Please Bring Back Text Only For One Day A Week

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TLT over priced, US yields look too low

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TBT is the only guaranteed money in a retarded market and Burry was right

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

This is fine. It's like, whatever, man. Probably nothing

r/wallstreetbetsOGsSee Post

Technical Analysis for the week 4/18/22

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TLT still looks overpriced

r/StockMarketSee Post

bond market in 2022

r/stocksSee Post

Anyone getting long TLT?

r/optionsSee Post

Getting Back at Inflation: Options on Bond Yield Increases

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

TLT seems really overvalued compared to mortgage rates

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Layman's reasoning for why TLT is overvalued

r/stocksSee Post

Considering a 4-fund portfolio. Thoughts on these index funds/etfs?

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Step 1) Get Drafted. Step 2) ??? Step 3) Profit 🚀🚀🚀😎

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Step 1) Get Drafted. Step 2) ........ Step 3) Profit 🚀🚀🚀😎

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Bonds Have the Biggest Potential For A Short Squeeze In Possibly in All of History RN. Don't believe me? check this out

r/optionsSee Post

Is it math or coincidence that different strike prices gave me the same return?

r/investingSee Post

Good way to hedge against the SP500?

r/wallstreetbetsOGsSee Post

The Man Behind The Curtain

Mentions

TLT did not agree with this move, I would be VERY surprised if there is no profit taking tomorrow. Definitely, Jpow was dovish, but only in tone, nothing new was really said today IMO. Completely agree with you, and almost all bear downtrends begin with a massive blow off top.

Mentions:#TLT

Long dated treasuries $TLT

Mentions:#TLT

Bear time is over if this TLT:SPY spread keeps dumping https://ibb.co/vQtmR0G

Mentions:#TLT#SPY

I got some TLT calls and TMF this week and I was pissed all day because it was the only thing on my watchlist not mooning. At least it's picking up the slack now. In theory TLT should be more of a pure play on rate hike expectations while getting a boost from recession expectations, which is why I didn't go full tilt on SPY.

Mentions:#TLT#TMF#SPY

Interesting price action on TLT EOD and AH.

Mentions:#TLT

[-50% on TLT puts and my single SPY call hedge was +3500%](https://imgur.com/a/DioHhtI)

Mentions:#TLT#SPY

Core PCE will be close to zero. PCE weights shelter and used cars much less than CPI. So a rough estimate of the core PCE is the CPI less shelter, energy, food, and used cars and trucks, which is one of the categories that's broken down in the full CPI report. I went back for two years and core PCE is almost always below that number (MoM) or at most 0.1 above it. That number for October was dead-ass 0. Headline PCE also weighs energy and food less than CPI. My estimate for headline is about 0.2 MoM. Core YoY will have a 4 handle guaranteed. I'm holding my calls on TLT, SPY, and QQQ and expecting a good bump from it tomorrow morning especially since JPow re-confirmed core PCE is what they most care about. But I will be taking some profit on that bump because PCE doesn't normally move markets, so I think any euphoria will be short-lived, like with PPI.

Why did TLT take a nose dive??

Mentions:#TLT

TLT is not moving while stocks up 2%. #🤔

Mentions:#TLT

TLT suddenly not buying into this pump

Mentions:#TLT

TLT and TMF have been ripping lately. Pullback recently. Good entry point imo

Mentions:#TLT#TMF

I'm really just looking for the following from JPow this afternoon: 1. Mentions pain. 2. Mentions Volcker. 3. Clarifies that a pause in rate hikes would also mean an acceleration in balance sheet reductions. They mentioned this in March but the bond market seems to have forgotten it. ​ If I hit the trifecta, that gap from 375 to 384 (CPI release on 11/10 from 11/9's close) gets filled this week with Core PCE increasing on incredibly heavy volume. ​ Puts on SPY and TLT would hit big. ​ Roll most of the gains into DIA puts for the following week to bank on OPEC production cuts, increasing violence and visibility in China, and the railroad strike.

Mentions:#SPY#TLT#DIA

I'm thinking the same. I'm going to buy TLT puts around noon 2% OTM and hope for a big swing.

Mentions:#TLT

Shit is so fake TLT dumping all morning and the Qs not.

Mentions:#TLT

JPOW gonna step to the mic and keep rolling out the hits with a 75 BPS. I'm getting TLT puts in the afternoon.

Mentions:#TLT

15x DIA 12/30 330p 3x SOXS 2/17 40c TLT 1/20 100p 3x SPY 3/17 390p

Long end bond buyers think FED folds, so rates go up. The old bond vigilantes. Assume you are referring to TLT.

Mentions:#TLT

im not selling my tlt shares LOL. I will only sell if something 2008 or 2020 happens again. that's when TLT will moon to the fkin sky

Mentions:#TLT

But you are bullish. Short term trade? Just curious. I had TLT calls as a hedge. Sold them a couple of weeks ago. Now my hedge is OTM short dated calls and UUP puts. Selling the UUP puts tomorrow. I got my double. Calls will be gone on any decent pump as well.

Mentions:#TLT#UUP

i bought TLT lol

Mentions:#TLT

More TMF more TLT leap calls MORE^BONDexposure

Mentions:#TMF#TLT

I'm debating how to play PCE. It comes out the same time as some jobs data. It's possible that lower inflation doesn't really lead to a rally in SPY if it seems the economy is crumbling. Thinking of buying some TLT calls to capture the pure inflation play without letting all this "recession" nonsense spoil the party.

Mentions:#SPY#TLT

Made some gains on TLT, but I'm out until after JP speaks. It's run a good bit

Mentions:#TLT

The three amigos : VIX , DXY , TLT Are all aligned for pumping on SPX but it’s practically bidless right now 🤡

Mentions:#TLT

TLT off a cliff

Mentions:#TLT

Were talking about very different things. I'm talking about broad basket bonds, for example TLT is essentially an inverse of bond yields. Buying individual bonds is a much different game.

Mentions:#TLT

I tested all indicators myself. They are all garbage. All of them. Your best bet is another source aka stock, commodity or etf to give you signals. I looked at TQQQ SQQQ the last weeks myself = hint try the TLT etf. Good luck.

You already have a bet going - TLT to 108.0 before 2022-12-08 21:53:45.522924-05:00

Mentions:#TLT

TLT up AH ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)

Mentions:#TLT

I'll point this out. Since NOV 10th, TLT has been outperforming SPY and DIA

I hedged and I’m only up because of TLT puts 🤡

Mentions:#TLT

I recommend selling the TLT $105 call at its current market value of $2.65. This trade would result in a loss of $3,150, or 7.92%. ^^WSB ^^[Stats](https://www.twitch.tv/wsbzjz/) ^^[**Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse) ^^[BanBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) ^^VoteBot ^^[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/votebot/) ^^[Leaderboard](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/leaderboard/) ^^- ^^[**Keep_VM_Alive**](https://www.patreon.com/visualmod)

Mentions:#TLT

TLT only goes up

Mentions:#TLT

TLT is usually the simplest one for options, and some people like to hold investor grade corporate bonds. [Pimco's High Income Fund (PHK)](https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/closed-end-funds/high-income-fund) offers an 11% yield rn and has a nice mix of gov't & high yield credit. I used to hold it but I'm in Canada so I didn't like the withholding tax. Right now I'm just long TMF, and will be looking for TLT calls if it drops on JPow speaking (10:30 EST on 11/30)

Mentions:#TLT#PHK#TMF

Well, as the Fed hiked rapidly, existing bonds became unattractive because the new ones had a higher coupon rate. And holders of US treasuries (especially foreign ones) needed to scramble for USD to buy the new bonds. So bond ETFs went down as a result. Lots of pressure. Burry being short TLT also brought a lot of whale chasers out I imagine.

Mentions:#TLT

long bonds are less affected by FFR, but you could be right. Back in the 60s-80s look at FFR vs 30y bond. Sometimes Fed funds rate was twice the yield of the long bond. I think inflation and growth expectations are more important to TLT performance now vs FFR. QT could be an issue

Mentions:#FFR#TLT

VOLD and TLT opposite of DXY and you're buying calls??

Mentions:#TLT

Wealth gap engineering genius. FED knows they fucked up by spreading the wealth gap during Covid to “save” the economy. Now the money printer has become the money vacuum. I think they overtighten. That’s why I’m long bonds (mostly TLT, TMF), short stonks (as of last friday) and short oil.

Mentions:#TLT#TMF

Yeah - you buy both. JEPI is (essentially) a covered call strategy which works best for a side ways moving market. Whereas long term treasuries have been sold off (for a number of reasons) largely due to inflation. A recession will probably mean lower inflation and a "return to safety" so long dated treasury bonds will be attractive again. Personally, I have a $10 daily JEPI purchase and a daily TLT $7.50 purchase.

Mentions:#JEPI#TLT

Oh bro. Why would you be short TLT this late in the tightening cycle?

Mentions:#TLT

# Tickers of Interest - TL;DR **Gamma Max Cross** * [TLT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#TLT) 01/20 102P for $2.35 or less * [XLV](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#XLV) 01/20 135P for $2.30 or less * [EQT](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#EQT) 01/20 43P for $3.05 or less * [CRWD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#CRWD) 01/20 140P for $10.80 or less * [LUV](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LUV) 01/20 37.5P for $1.10 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [WBD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#WBD) 01/20 10P for $0.35 or less * [USO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#USO) 01/20 67C for $4.95 or less * [VOD](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#VOD) 01/20 12C for $0.20 or less * [BEKE](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#BEKE) 01/20 12.5P for $0.85 or less * [HSBC](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#HSBC) 01/20 28P for $0.40 or less # Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ - Because others have already asked. * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn. * You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean? * The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not. * Where are the crayons? I only see words. * Click the links above. * Have you back-tested this? * Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error) * What is the historical performance? * The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)

What happened to the 12/16 93 put on TLT?

Mentions:#TLT

How do you hedge with TLT? Just buy both? Is JEPI highly inverse correlated with TLT?

Mentions:#TLT#JEPI

Don't use a stop loss. Hedge with TLT or some shit.

Mentions:#TLT

I'm skeptical on TLT. Feddies said that rates will go higher than they themselves expected as recently as September. There is also the issue of QT. At some point those bonds go back on the market.

Mentions:#TLT

TLT lookin very good if it holds through this week. DXY rising, futes down, and 20y is also down tonight. That's a different than it's been behaving most of the year.

Mentions:#TLT

It's weird how correlated TLT and Hang Seng have been lately

Mentions:#TLT

For the TLT play does it take into account the 50bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting?

Mentions:#TLT

What if TLT up only until further notice

Mentions:#TLT

31.25 per tick is exactly the kind of risk tolerance I am looking for lmao. Was trading \\sil last week but bond futures.... I don't know if I understand your logic "10s and 30s are the most sensitive to recession fears, so as a recession becomes more obvious they should keep going up, or at least not go down." I mean just look at what happened to TLT throughout 2022. By selling puts on \\ZN or \\ZB you are essentially making the bet that the yields are done mooning. But if the federal funds rate does find its way north of 5.5% in 2023, then AFAIK the 10/30 year yields might continue to rise, putting downward pressure on long term bonds.

Mentions:#TLT

First let me observe that TLT is not the same as the bond market. BND would be a better vehicle for representing the US bond market as whole. Good news and bad news: Good news is that there is a free historical correlation tool (see link below) that will do all the calculation for you and you can customize the time interval for comparison. Bad news is that it only takes stock and ETP symbols, not indexes, and the correlation history goes only as far as the youngest symbol, and the symbols for the currency and interest rate indexes are quite young, a couple of years or less. I had to use RATE as a proxy for TNX, and UUP as a proxy for DXY, which severely limits the look-back distance, but if you can find better proxies, you can just plug them into the same page. [SPY vs. BND vs. RATE vs. UUP correlations.](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=SPY+BND+RATE+UUP&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36)

TLT

Mentions:#TLT

All bonds are down YTD. Yields have risen immensely causing bond prices to fall. Even TLT is down 20% YTD and that index is 20 year government bond fund.

Mentions:#TLT

I’ve been selling options in ZN (10yr) and ZB (30yr), as well as TLT (30yr etf). 10s and 30s are the most sensitive to recession fears, so as a recession becomes more obvious they should keep going up, or at least not go down. I’m also short 2YY/long 10Y (micro interest rate futures) as a pair trade for when the yield curve un-inverts. That may take a while, and I expect I’ll have to roll those contracts a few times before making a nice profit. But eventually that yield curve is going to steepen. Idk your portfolio size, but be careful with the full-size bond futures like ZN and ZB! They are worth $31.25 per tick, and a thousand bucks per full point. ZN is cool because you can do spreads that are .25 points wide, or $250.

Mentions:#TLT#YY

Not OP, or an expert, but my two cents Since VGIT is listed first (VGIT:UTWO), I believe that means if the price is going higher in OP's chart, then it favors VGIT, so VGIT would be better, according to OP. VGIT is the intermediate term one (5-10 year bonds), and UTWO is the short term one (2 years). So the chart is saying the intermediate term bonds are doing better than 2 year bonds. Also, look at TLT (the 20 year bond version) which is the even longer term bond ETF, or even the comparison (TLT:VGIT), and TLT is doing even better. You could also look at each one individually in a chart, and then look at the percentage gains the last few weeks, and see that TLT is doing even better than the others. On the larger note about where to park your money, it seems like yields are doing down, so all of the ETFs will go up (VGIT, UTWO, TLT, etc) if yields keep going down. Historically there is evidence for the yields to go down in these types of situations, so maybe it will work out, who knows. You probably already know this, but the downside of buying a Bond ETF, compared to a bond, is you can lose your principal if the ETF goes down in price. Its a risk. Right now its a risk I am taking in small doses since I believe long term TLT will go up, but its still a risk. here is a list of bond ETFs - https://etfdb.com/etfs/asset-class/bond/ and here is one sorted by category - https://www.thebalancemoney.com/bond-etfs-the-complete-updated-list-416949 There are a lot of options. Its hard to know which one to select. I tend to follow the big money, so I look for the ones that had large assets, or volume, or spikes in buying, so I just copy what the large institutions are doing.

This fund will continually buy new bonds as well once older bonds mature. In a way, it'll trade like TLT but comprised exclusively of 2 year notes. When it comes to bonds I prefer target date maturity ETFs. The fund gets liquidated upon maturity and you get your principal back. One example would be Blackrock iBonds series for treasury bonds: ticker IBT(D to H), lettered by maturity.

Mentions:#TLT

The Fed has made it clear they have the firepower to go until something breaks, and the tools to fix it. The key part that has been mentioned is that they'll only come to rescue the bond market, which in turn will put a bid under stocks, if only temporarily. I think it's criminal our generation doesn't appreciate bonds, as they'll provide a better return vs equities in 2023. Been pounding the table since \~10/20, and was fortunate enough to scoop TMF (3x leveraged TLT) at the absolute lows on 10/21 & 10/24 (I've got receipts). The first tranche was below $6.50, and the 2nd was at $6.25. All-time low is $6.15 and we're at $8.50+ in a month. 3x leverage SPX is up 20%, but bond gang is up 35% :)

Mentions:#TMF#TLT

Couldn’t agree more about this being a tough week. Like you were saying the only trades I made money on were some short options. My humble suggestion is that you should stop trading Tesla. On a risk-adjusted basis, it just doesn’t seem worth it to contend with that kind of unpredictability. Since you already quit Apple, and you’d only be TA’ing the S+P and VIX if you quit Tesla, I’d like to suggest you give some love to the bond market. Bonds are sexy again for the first time in years. And they’re highly correlated to all the macro stuff that everyone cares about these days, like inflation, employment, and whatever the Fed is saying. They’re going to be a big part of the story in 2023, and there’s a boatload of money to be made in bonds depending on how you trade them (futures are very juicy, and the etfs have decent options markets too, especially TLT). The thing I like most is that whatever range they’re trading in actually makes sense, based on the most recent macro data and Fed speak. There’s a lot more randomness in stocks when it comes to price levels. As always thanks for the TA!

Mentions:#TLT

I am not buying SPY, I am buying GOOG which is currently trading at its lowest forward P/E in about a decade, and I am buying C which is trading at about .6 P/B. Their "bad" earnings from this most recent quarter are still absolutely massive. There is definitely overvalued shit in the market, which is why I am targeting my exposure towards things that benefit with rate changes like TLT, HYG, GOOG, C, SHEL, etc. SPY is not the only game in town.

The market has, for the most part, digested the current and future rate hikes from a risk free rate perspective. However, I do not believe it has fully digested it from an earnings/consumer spending perspective. 2023 earnings estimates still remain high or uncertain - this is why you see meme stock-like moves happen to $100B+ companies in 1 earnings report. So how do I invest? Just like the +Fed long everything move in 2021 is over, the -Fed short everything move in 2022 is over. Now is the time to separate the wheat from the chaff. Unfortunately, this will actually require analysts doing some due diligence on companies! In this short-term, poor companies with horrible balance sheets will continue to be held up by short position closures and algo-trading until the companies (or trading firms) finally disappear. Great companies with great [everything] will possibly be suppressed as unsophisticated/underwater investors throw the babies out with the bathwater. Now is the time to put your head down and go full Warren Buffett/Ted Weschler on the market. There is actually reward to be obtained in the coming cycle. I'm personally long TLT as the inflation narrative weakens and the Fed softens their stance. As for individual stock picks, I'm holding the few I like close to my chest, mainly because I haven't finished studying them completely to feel comfortable recommending them to anyone.

Mentions:#TLT

Thanks for info…I’m in TLT, TMF and XLB. Just thinking with inverse yield curve in short term bonds, I could make some money on those rates flattening out, and yield curve returning to normal.

Mentions:#TLT#TMF#XLB

which makes TLT go up.

Mentions:#TLT

basically buy TLT. when the fed pivots and interest rates drop the value of TLT will go back up. meanwhile you still get 2.4% yield while you wait for Fed to pivot.

Mentions:#TLT

TLT looks good. Not sure I trust myself on the other moves.

Mentions:#TLT

You want short term bonds to go up (rates down). If you were going to do it with etfs, you’d want to go long SHY/short IEF (SHY is the purest exposure to 2yr US T-notes). But, you’d need to lock up a shitload of cash to make any kind of decent gains, because a “big” move in a bond etf like SHY is only a fraction of a percent. There would also be fees for shorting IEF, on top of the fact that you would have pay the dividends to whoever loaned you the shares. So I really wouldn’t recommend it. If you want to play the spread, futures is the way to go. I recommend going to the CME Group website and learning about interest rate futures, and get a broker that lets you trade them if you don’t already have one. That said, if you’re not ready for that, you can’t really go wrong with just putting your money in any bond etf right now. TLT (20+ yr bonds) and IEF should have some nice gains over the next 6-12 months once everyone is convinced we’re in a recession. I’m in TLT and want to add more, but it just had a nice run so I’m waiting for it to cool off.

The volatility and yield risk exposure is directly related to duration of the fund. These are critical considerations in allocation decisions to most people. Investors seeking safe allocation will invest in low duration, high credit funds like SHY. Investors seeking exposure to interest rate risk factor will invest in high duration funds such as ZROZ, EDV, TLT. But they will be exposed to higher volatility and drawdowns.

Wrong. See the 2001 dot com bubble. Nasdaq -8% But bonds rally. TLT is the ticker you need Tech companies will be fucked all 2023.

Mentions:#TLT

Do ever do options with TLT or just long?

Mentions:#TLT

Lookin out the next 2 years I'm thinkin TMF/TLT are smart plays. Currently have like 25-30% of my ports in them and will probably add on pullbacks. Look at tlt/20y bond vs spx performance during the last two yield curve inversions(2000/2007). Both times tlt would have done better than spx over the next 2 years

Mentions:#TMF#TLT

TLT telling where we going the bond boys know already ![img](emote|t5_2th52|12787)

Mentions:#TLT

Bull mega fuked if TLT looses 102 today

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TLT already drilling 🤤

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Balls deep in TLT ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8882)

Mentions:#TLT

TLT has to be one of the best bets in Q4.

Mentions:#TLT

There is good money to be made playing options on shit like IEF, TLT, etc.

Mentions:#IEF#TLT

Look at chart of TLT, it’s a 20yr treasury constant maturity etf, it’s about 100 now and was 170 when rates were basically zero.

Mentions:#TLT

TLT 102 about to dump back down to 95 as QQQ gets torn apart

Mentions:#TLT#QQQ

🅱️ullard why hath thou forsaken me! Was I not gay enough? I promise I’ll be really really gay, just make TLT crash. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)

Mentions:#TLT

Waiting for TLT to pump sufficiently and all the IVs crushed before I buy a truck load of TLT puts.

Mentions:#TLT

Got out of my TLT short strangle finally. After all the IV pump and TLT tanking finally broke even on this relief rally![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)

Mentions:#TLT

TLT is free money

Mentions:#TLT

imagine not going all in on TLT before a recession

Mentions:#TLT