TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
i’m not dipping my toe back in till the reform optimism in this thread is completely gone.. all i read are hopes and dreams of bag holders companies will go to 0 there is a large amount of call open interest expiring friday the 21st so don’t expect much of a bounce next week liquidity is slowly drying up in many sectors the $ and TLT look like they might start rallying together pot stocks still doomed
Welp, today sucked less. Bought puts on TLT near the beginning of the day, sold them, and put the money into more shares. Only 73 more to go before I have a solid 300, and I can turn this into a "second HYSA".
TLT chart looks extra bad. 50 day breach.
TLT gonna make be absolutely dozens of dollars.
TLT having a nice time
At least TLT is going up today like it should
Ummm TLT rockets during crash. If yields are going down that means people are freaking out and buying treasuries!
Well, today sucked. I saw that the fedwatch odds of a ratecut had dipped hard, and bought a protective collar for my TLT shares as well as a few additional puts. That's my biggest bag now, but I am accumulating without concern so far. I had a trailing stop for my IAU shares which saved me a little pain. And I'm glad I sold my SLV calls yesterday because goddamn that was one helluva dump. I tried setting up a calendar spread at 47.50, but got spooked as well. So I just contented myself with rolling down some CSPs to 46.5 and seeing what happens tomorrow. If I get assigned, so be it.
For me, it's been $TLT. I mean technically everyone talks about it every day since $TLT is an etf based off the 20+ year bond yield. But even for bond traders it's not like anything shiny. Nobody cares about this stock even though I told a lot of people to buy it back then and would have made some okay money by now. Not mind shattering gains or a 2-10x or anything but to me it's pretty simple and I just make my returns. I entered it a few months ago in a pretty sizable position and it just gives me money every month and IMO we will continue to see rates decline (which means the etf stock price will go up).
So why is TLT still lagging so much?
TLT - RED SPY - RED GLD - RED IBIT - RED DXY - RED Are we just saying fuck un-correlation at this point?
Next week is 3rd wk options exp for the month. I might sit out trading until next Friday. I would like a pullback in Gold. I might add to $TLT during this pullback as well. I'm not cut out for the leveraged shorting even if I think this is dot com 2.0. I'll take my profits and bet on J-Pow making an emergency rate cut before the market sniffs this out.
TLT sold off for the wrong reason a year ago. Or maybe people knew he was going to blow up the system.
Be aware TLT and GLD have barely moved
SCHD, TLT, SGOV for 10k
SLV seens to be hovering around 48.5/49. I plan to monitor for a profit-taking, then re-enter with some calls dated for december instead of november. Likewise, I'll sell some CSPs expiring Friday. Any premiums I collect are going into accumulating shares of SLV and IAU. I have TLT that I am selling CCs against, and that's my biggest "bag" for now.
oh, ok. I have it with my 401k so it's probably a diversified mix but TLT is a solid buy with i think a 4.3% yield. very solid hedge
Those big spikes in TLT on the 6th and the 11th...is that the US treasury trying to pump that up? Or just people shifting from stocks to bonds
Probably buy long-term treasury bonds $TLT
I’m back from vacation. Looks like I should’ve bought the fucking dip on Friday. Still 120% TLT waiting for shitty Sept employment numbers.
Looking for deals only one I see is SPY and GLD and TLT maybe one share of TSLY
Buying TLT calls if we open at this 👀
So what’s that play? Cash? Puts? No thanks. Just hold SGOV, TLT, GLD as hedges and the rest should all be invested. Unless you’re retiring in <10 years, the dips are all just buying opportunities.
Well my TLT position is fucked
Everyone is going to tell you not to put it in the market at all but the reality is you could put some of it in the market and do just fine. It doesn't have to be all stocks. I've been in a similar boat to you before and due to how long it took to find a house, my money was just rotting in the HYSA when it could have instead gained significantly with even a very defensive portfolio. Check out the 12 month inflation adjusted returns for [this portfolio](https://testfol.io/?s=dC058E4qMfh): * VTI: 30% * GLDM: 25% * TLT: 15% * KMLM: 30 All these stats are adjusted for inflation, back tested since 1992: * CAGR: 6.33% * Deepest drawdown: -15.42% 2 Worst year return: -7.5% (great financial crisis) * 25th percentile return: 1.5% * 50th percentile return: 6.4 This simple portfolio has a 12 month lump sum win rate of 77.5%. So, yes, you would be down 22.5% of the time with it. Is that a risk you're interested in taking? Only you can say.
A recession may be looming, but generally, all stocks are going to take a hit if that plays out. A better bet is to be long treasuries \*during\* the downmove, and once we've gone down for several months and it's looking real ugly, that's where you start sniffing out for which stocks might be the better bets for coming out of this. If stocks were getting set to trash, I'd probably just go long $TLT for the time being. That's something that gets you good exposure to the traditional "rush to safety" in that scenario. Of course, our exploding national debt and general pissing off of trading partners has kind of softened the demand for treasuries, so, $TLT's moves in such a scenario might not be as good as is traditional for such events, and that is likely a big part of the reason why stocks as a whole have been kept bid despite deteriorating economic conditions. Well, that and there hasn't been enough economic pain to force people out of stocks to just pay bills... You may be right, the precipice may be soon, but, there also could be a bubble of sorts that sees some of these tech and AI names go extra wild from here to the end of the year in a blow off top before we go down. Hard to say!
I would think TLT / Bonds, Healthcare and Consumer Staples. Healthcare names like Pfizer and even managed care names like UNH; Staples like Kimberly Clark and P&G.
Silver is now considered strategically critical. However, the price is still trending downwards but slowly; given SLV failed to close above 44 yesterday, I am interested to see what Monday brings. I managed to realize a decent amount on last week's drop, but am now sitting on OTM monthly puts that I am desperately selling short-dated CSPs against. That said, it may be a degen play, but it's one that has been paying off so far. I got my first payout from TLT. I've essentially been buying puts around the upper bound of 89, selling around the lower bound, and just using them to accumulate more TLT shares. I doubt I'll have enough scratch to make it to 300 shares before the beginning of december, but every little bit helps. I'm gradually DCA'ing down, selling OTM covered calls as a synthetic dividend, and setting up a gradual realization of profits.
I sold half my $SQQQ position today when the $QQQ hit 600. We will most certainly have a relief rally. The question is whether we will put in new ATH's. I believe we already had a blow-off top once $NVDA hit $5T market cap last week. You could also mark J-Pow not promising a December 025 bps cut as the blow-off top. I will be waiting to add to $SQQQ and once again short $NVDA once the bulls start burning their cash BTD in this Sam Altman AI bubble. If you are a long term buy and holder, DCA into $SCHD, $TLT, or $GLD. Even $RSP would be a better choice than the $SPY or $QQQ. But stay away from reddit's fave Sam Altman stocks.
I work at Wendy's. TLT has a nice ticker, rolls off the tongue. It's yielding over 4%, and we're surely headed into some rate cuts. Good nuff for me.
Might be TLT and chill time boys
sold to open TLT puts at 9:57, been ripping since then
My TLT calls are ITM. The more SPY dumps, the more TLT is pumping. But don't want to get greedy.
Long term gov bonds. Yields higher than all of the above and are ultra safe. They appreciate i value as rates drop fed usually drops rates in a recession. So you both get high yield, and appreciation in underlying asset. TLT baby!
TLT is massively underperformed my expectations all things considered. Fuck the government, embrace anarchy.
Apparently TLT puts a week ago was the play. 92p's from 10/28 - 11/5 woulda been $0.54 -> $2.70 sold yesterday at close.
i think it’s liquidity issue? people shit on Treasuries ETF TLT. it’s the new safe heaven.
congrats to GOOGL and TLT for being green today
I have CALLs, but they're in UVXY and TLT.
This has been a very profitable day. I cashed out a 20% gain shorting $NVDA, my $SQQQ position finally turned green, my largest position $TLT finally caught a bid and gold is just flat doing gold's thing. Now I just need to remember to buy some popcorn tonight so I can watch this drama again tomorrow : )
You want a **short-term** treasury fund. >TIP (iShares TIPS Bond ETF) Crashed hard in 2008 because CPI cratered and Lehman was the largest holder of TIPS at the time and dumped them all to raise cash. Also took a beating in 2022 from the rate hikes because intermediate duration (6 years). Both of these things are visible on TIP's full chart (why do people not look at charts?). A **short-term** TIPS fund like VTIP/STIP will have less volatility. VTIP/STIP returns have been better than BSV (nominal treasuries + investment grade corporates) in recent years because higher inflation. >AGG (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF) Not short-term. Treasury holdings will keep it stable tho. Longer duration treasury funds have "crisis alpha" -- they *rise* in value during deflationary shocks. See the performance of TLT or EDV during 2008, Covid, or even this past April for an example. But they are not short-term. Only put in money you don't need for a long time.
Bears are gay and puts are un-American, that's why I have VIX and TLT calls today.
Thinking of 1DTE TLT $89.50 calls. But TLT often screws me over.
Ytd corn almost as flat as TLT
I reinforced my diagonal spread on SLV. If it drops, I sell. If it crabs, I hold and let theta win for me. If silver drops to 42ish, I'll probably sell my monthly puts, check the orderbook, and buy some monthly calls. 42.5 seems to be my entry point. I will write new covered calls for TLT. The puts have saved me from the worst of bagholding, and I should be able to DCA my way into more shares.
if we tank TLT coming with us
If TLT is only going up cause markets are down then this is only a short term push by TLT
TLT soaring I'm gonna be snoring good tonight
Read up on the 4 year crypto cycle before you buy any. Historically, it doesn't V after the dump (i.e. crypto winter). I like TLTW instead of TLT for the 15% yield. I'm an older investor (Gen X, not boomer), and I've learned, as hard as it is to do, sometimes it's best to sit on your hands and wait it out. We always return to historical averages.
Not really but I am))What do you guys think about the market? I really feel that it’s a good time to put some money into the crypto market because it’s overall down 20–30%, and maybe buy a bit more gold since it went from 4,500 to 4,000 even with the rate cut (also, the TLT price isn’t really moving because the real interest rate is kind of the same since inflation is high). But I really don’t get why the S&P 500 and the stock market in general are at all-time highs over and over again. I’m afraid that if I invest now in crypto, for example, and the stocks crash, everything will go down by a lot. I’m also afraid that if I don’t enter now, I’ll miss another rally in the crypto and gold markets. What do you guys think?
What do you guys think about the market? I really feel that it’s a good time to put some money into the crypto market because it’s overall down 20–30%, and maybe buy a bit more gold since it went from 4,500 to 4,000 even with the rate cut (also, the TLT price isn’t really moving because the real interest rate is kind of the same since inflation is high). But I really don’t get why the S&P 500 and the stock market in general are at all-time highs over and over again. I’m afraid that if I invest now in crypto, for example, and the stocks crash, everything will go down by a lot. I’m also afraid that if I don’t enter now, I’ll miss another rally in the crypto and gold markets. What do you guys think?
TLT and short QQQ. Metals have run-up too much already. TLTW has a nice divi so you get paid to wait, if your port is large enough for that to matter.
#Also added 40,000 TLT, I see Rate cuts get slash where JPO wants to or not!
the only options are; real estate, treasuries of various duration, gold, or corn....and corn is imploding so it's not the last option. TLT ticked up today so that could be the rotation just for today tho...I don't see how long term treasuries are a good pick during a time rates are being cut while inflation is reanimating.
Anything long duration tbh. I use TLT but I'm sure other etfs are better or just as good
only safe assets right now is TLT and short/puts. Metals ran up too much. If the market really tanks (15%+) then metals should do fine
Market falling, yields dropping, and inflation doesn't seem to be as bad as predicted, is the trifecta for a TLT pump. I like TMF and TLTW (for fat divi)
TLT to $92 by end of week. Reality continues to set in and yields continue to fall.
Real estate and TLT/TMF are the only things green that I see. Metals had too big of a run recently to be a hedge now. BTC never was a good hedge
TLT might be the only good thing to hold for the next month or 2
The manufacturing numbers were horrific. Producers overstocked, no one buying from the states. Can only imagine unemployment numbers are equally horrific. The move in yields is the wrong one and I’m buying more TLT. Rates need to be cut asap.
I actually followed him into an inflation based play quite a few years back that was genius, something about shorting TLT because inflation would cause the bond market to collapse. Puts went nuts back then just as he predicted. He was right about the inflation, wrong about the market bubble bursting because he failed to realize that more and more would be pumped.
Ahh...TLT...what happened?
JPOW scared long-term treasuries and today is the ex-dividend for TLT, and I ran a protective collar with some extra puts. I'll ride it down and DCA into a lower cost-basis.
honestly good take, rates prolly won’t reflect a drop so TLT is gonna take a dump along with my calls
Wtf, why is TLT so flaccid?
Pretty good. But I would put some in VOOG, MAGS, SOFI, CHYM, and leftover cash in TLT/SGOV.
AMDL put spread seems rather tempting. Collect the premium from your short put. Sell the long put once Lisa Su speaks. Get assigned. Wait for the V. I'm probably going to just continue DCA'ing into TLT and writing silver contracts though.
Generational wealth bout to come for TLT shorts this week
TLT bulls going to cry this week
I only trade ETFs now because I've been burned too many times by individual stocks. And I trade them on 3-month momentum. My 3 current favorites (which along with GLD and TLT make up my whole portfolio) are: ICLN, SMH, XBI [This is what they look like](https://imgur.com/a/jebeFaQ) over the past 3 months. If they continue that average 9%/month rate for just the next month or two, capture it with the \~3x leverage of 80-90-delta LEAPS Calls. And when those taper off, find replacements.
Treasury bond ETFs are especially useful if you want readily available money. Putting money in SGOV is much more flexible and higher-yielding than a CD or Savings account. TLT if you are more adventurous, especially during the current Fed interest rate cuts. The Treasury bond ETFs' monthly dividends only get Federal tax.
If you plan to have money on the side for "safer havens", then consider parking some money in the Treasury ETFs such as SGOV, which offers a better interest rate than your Savings account. TLT if you are more adventurous, especially during the current Fed interest rate cuts. The Treasury bond ETFs' monthly dividends only get Federal tax.
SGOV is unlike BND. SGOV is like putting money into a Savings account and not have to worry about it. The dividend from SGOV ETF only gets Federal tax. The Treasury bond ETF that is somewhat volatile but usually goes up with interest rate drop is TLT. Could get substantial gain or loss and it is not nearly as safe as SGOV.
Sure, but that isn’t a treasury bill. You’re also taking on *significantly* more risk. Go compare the TLT chart and SGOV chart for an idea of just how much you’re taking on.
TLT, 2 rate cuts and the 10 year yields are going to ease.
Treasury bonds are absolutely a safer, less volatile structure than corporate debt, especially regarding the tax situation you mentioned with TLT. The core problem, however, is that liquidity risk now dominates credit risk in the corporate segment, explaining up to $25percent of cross-sectional yield variation. The question is whether the market is actively mispricing that specific liquidity premium in the 2 to 5 year corporate sweet spot right now, compared to the volatility of TLT.
Treasury Bonds are much safer and are only subject to Federal tax. TLT usually thrives in lowering interest environment like the one we have now.
TLT max chart is psychology of a bubble chart lmao
Today was fun. I spent the day essentially playing with the price movement of TLT, and firing off short-dated puts and calls within its rangeband, while also firing off some covered calls. I may be down 150 bucks on my shares, but I've also realized 114 gains from option-trading I'll call it solid cost basis reduction. Only 8900 left to go before it's house money. Writing puts against silver is still slowly accumulating cash.
True; all stocks will drop!! If you can decrease the % of high risk stocks in portfolio (sell), you can then be in dividend or mega caps that buy you time (days) —to then get all out! But it all depends on what crashes first of course. The 60/40 funds are safer. WMT is safe. There are safe plays ya just need to do homework and diversify. Healthcare, XLv, Gold, TLT, XLP, WMT, Euro, XLI
$TLT is is a popular choice if the crash is caused by recession/recession fears. Oil/oil firms is good if the crash is caused by war or other inflationatory events. Gold is good if the crash is caused by stagflation but imo gold is overpriced atm. You can short stocks long-term if you expect a crash if you use no leverage or maximum 2x leverage, but keep in mind this is risky. Last option would be hedge funds, hard to access if you're not very wealthy but there are some "feeder funds" which allows the public to access the hedge fund, like BH Macro Ltd $BHMG. Personally I have $TLT and $BHMG atm
Shuddup TLT nobody asked you
Only buy puts in the context of a straddle. True bears buy TLT GLD and USFR