TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
They wrote an article just for you. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-real-market-shock-is-in-long-bonds-200720064.html Yer kind of an idiot for buying TLT. This was a known risk. Sell America is actually happening and people are still trying to deny it. It's not the end of the world for the USA yet, but some serious shit has started to move, and once it starts moving, it's not going to stop.
You can blame me. I just sold all but $20k of $TLT today. I will wait and buy $SGOV at the beginning of April if this bear doesn't get his $VT and $ACWX market crash low to buy : ) Who f\*ck cares about missing this month's $TLT divy payment. I want my cash and I want it now. I'm fine hiding out in cash & soybeans until then.
It's the year 2040, someone you know is still trying to convince you to go long TLT.
lmao this shit is hilarious. TLT on track for its worst week since April last year. Last 2 times I have had TLT as my top positions: April 2025, and now. Literally, I just TLT, then it has its worst week in a fucking year since the LAST time I held it. Cursed
wtf is the 1 day chart for TLT man
Going full degen: 0DTE SPY strangle because CPI is gonna choose violence, then if it whipsaws I'm hiding in TLT calls like it's a bunker. If we get a fake pump at open I'm shorting NVDA for a scalp and immediately regretting it.
it's clear as day they're on at least day 3 of a frenetic onslaught on oil prices. i think they or the Fed are selling some Treasury/TLT holdings to do so, which is injecting liquidity into the market and propping up the indexes just enough to not collapse
I'd agree if it wasn't my largest position. I've been buying a lot this week and decided to use $TLT instead of cash to clear my margin. Gambler's tendencies to keep cash out of my brokerage account : )
TLT keeps bottoming in the 86-86.50 range, I think it's a time to buy it if anything
I just cut my $TLT position in half. So since I am the worse market timer ever you might want to check out those calls. I don't know what I'm doing apparently. None of the traditional hedges are working as they should. I just wanted to clear all margin in 1 clean swoop.
I might lose gambling on SPY options but at least I'm not a TLT bol
I realized gains by scalping shorts yesterday. But have a large unrealized loss on TLT. If Ford dips below 11.80, I might sell a CSP for 11 or so. But it's a knife that just keeps falling.
TLT no likey. Godl subdued for some reason tho
Bonds drilling... TLT 📉
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT
You're preaching to the choir. $TLT is still my largest position despite being a dumpster fire for the 15 or so months since I thought I could time the market and rotated into US Treasuries. It's sad that acting rashly & dumped 25% of that position before close yesterday was a good choice. On the bright side after we all lose money here in the markets we may actually kill inflation due to demand destruction. None of us are gonna have any money left to spend.
TLT will be at 50 when rates hit 7%. Get your puts now.
Why, so I can lose more money? Unless TLT explodes next 2 days, im now at 8 straight red weeks. Cursed right now
Oof. To be a TLT bagholder. Ah well, roll more covered calls and DCA in some more.
Use what you recovered from your failed TLT calls and buy puts?
Not shorting but I wish I was. Shorting would be a smaller loss than long TLT because this market is the fucking dumbest thing ever
lmao TLT at a new low and down in the 86s now. So I blow my account up with EOSE. Get defensive with SGOV and TLT. Private credit issues, a new war, negative jobs numbers... and somehow of all the major asset classes, TLT is the worst one since I made it 40%+ of my port. TLT getting outperformed by stocks, shitcoin, gold, everything during what should be a growth scare. This is legit so fucking stupid. I have a thesis, its turning out dead on, and still getting fucked because the normal correlations have apparently completely gone out the window. Fuck this shit
If TLT opens sub 87 tomorrow I will buy one kidneys worth of it
buy TLT today and you too can lose money slowly! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
I’m unironically happy for you. Bulls make money, bears make money, TLT owners hold generational bags.
Oh I agree. I still own 1000 shares of $TLT. It just hasn't served it's purpose so even if it runs up I feel like there is more money to be made moving some of that cash elsewhere. Now if someone here is scared of the market today and doesn't have a position in $TLT it is NOT a bad day to buy.
I ended up down 12% on the TLT calls. Not a huge deal they were less than 2% of my port. IV was high on them so took advantage to exit the position for now. If there is a left tail event, TLT is going to explode, espeically with how net short big money is on short TLT in a very crowded trade. A sharp slow down in macro plus that positioning and TLT calls will be the best place to be in the market. Problem is just timing it.
Whats your positions? I’m short IWM and TLT long term, eating good on TLT.
$TLT is only down 2% for the week. If you don't need the cash today buying the shares is not a bad idea. Now I'd never buy $TLT calls. The problem for me is that it is no longer working as a market hedge.
Capitulated on my TLT calls, keeping the common shares. Time for TLT to rip and me to get even more angry :)
That monthly triangle on TLT is terrifying
I don't have data for TLT, but if you invested in government bonds in Jan 1941, after inflation, you would still be flat after 45.5 years. During the bear market of 1966-1974 (9 years), you would have been down -0.60% p.a. in real terms. The set up today--threats to fed independence, gold ripping, oil shock, loss of faith in the USD, etc.--is much more similar to that era than to bear markets of the 2000s, which came during the greatest bond bull market of all time.
Because historically, TLT is the best performing asset in bear markets and when the economy slows. 2022 was the one exception due to interest rates rising so much during said bear market. US was running dumb unsustainable defecits from 2018 to 2020 and TLT went from 112 to 150. Look at how it performs in the past during market stress and economic stress.
Buy $EWY and $DE next. I have the uncanny superpower to buy market tops. In all seriousness I'm in the process of moving to 20% $TLT, 20% $GLD, 20% $VT, and 20% $ACWX, 20% individual stocks/ETF mix. I was previously 50% $TLT, 25% $GLD, 25% in stocks. This volatility this week has everything out of whack thou & is very messy. I haven't started my 20% goal towards $VT since that cash is currently all over the place and I have all this cash from selling quite a bit of $TLT yesterday.
Why the hell would you buy long-duration government bonds when we haven't shown any fiscal discipline this century? There's nothing I enjoy more than making fun of crypto, and even I would rather own BTC than TLT. (Not touching either.)
Ah I see. Now that TLT is 50% of my portfolio it will just go down every single day no matter what. Horrible jobs print? Sure, lets crash TLT. Oil up? Yeah, crash TLT. Oil down? Fuck yeah, crash TLT. Feels like a Truman show situation where they just short whatever my positions are.
no untrue but I think TLT is performing especially bad because we've been doing the "massive inflation wave about to come" song and dance for over a year. Truly think that the same people who used to lecture us that high costs <> inflation are now confusing permanently high costs with continued rapid inflation, and they're all waiting or it to appear in the CPI report
Buying a TLT position because you think the economy is in the poopers and yields will drop due to a deflationairy impulse != locking into a 30 year bond. Not to mention the duration on TLT is around 15 to 16 not 30.
I dumped 25% of my $TLT position yesterday, so it will likely rally. $SGOV would have been the better choice. I would be careful w/ buying gold. If Crude Oil can have these wild swings gold could next and it would more likely be down then up.
Cool, TLT continues to get beaten down every single day even though the job market is cooked and high oil price shocks historically always lead to deflation. Wonder what position i should move into next that shits the bed every single day for no reason
Oil aside TLT is falling off a cliff. I think the bond market is starting to get fussy. Watch out
The Straight of Hormuz is watching bully one punch bully two, bully two punch everyone else then saying "bully one started it." It's going to suck for everyone in the short term, but it's unintentionally going to make Trump and co look better in the long run. So...covered calls on TLT and tactical use of TTT, it appears.
Yes, kind of. Levered etfs rebalance daily so it’s really the long way to lever up. Read about it. Calls on TLT probably better for that.
Fokls are in denial about EVERYTHING. Just gotta hold this TLT position until the market wakes the fuck up to reality, whenever that is
Damn once the market realizes the job market is cooked, AI is deflationairy, and spiking oil prices cause demand destruction, this TLT position and TLT call position (which Is super small and im waiting for a drop to buy more) are gonna print.
There's a 3rd category you are forgetting. Average American - They are getting crushed by stagflation and are trying to get by with the short dollar trade. It might be different in Canada. But if my salary hasn't kept up with inflation since COVID I have to have a side hustle. And shorting the dollar thru $GLD, $DE, $EWJ has worked way better than $TLT.
I had about 40% of my portfolio in TLT! I sold it during the pump yesterday and went all to cash. I will need the money in 9 months and IMHO, the potential for stagflation from this war is too high. Iran's leadership seems pretty entrenched and they have an asymmetric advantage due to the geography of the strait. Also, if oil fields and refineries are shuttered (and they are being closed down right now), it can take weeks to get them back online, so even if the war ends tomorrow, we are looking at higher prices. And high oil prices will kill bonds. I decided the risk reward wasn't worth it so I sold.
soft print TLT is the cleanest long hot print GLD holds, TLT bleeds, SPY continues fading. Nfa
I'd also like to invite everyone to give me an advice on when to close my $TLT calls. Apparently, everyone's happy to give a suggestion, but no one wants the accountability.
Guess I should've help CRM longer. Can't figure out this trendless day though. Every chart looks like a bunch of Vs. There have been three V shape drops/recoveries on MSFT, TLT, CRM, etc. already
In my trading account im short s&p futures, and long puts, long wheat futures calls on this geo conflict trade and long copper futures puts. I also have a small position in PATH calls. Retirement account is mostly cash, small PATH position, ETH on this selloff, TLT, SQQQ, and QQQ puts. The sqqq shares and qqq puts are hedges that will be taken off and put back on as often as necessary. Every bounce we get i put the trade on and after the selloff taken off.
TLT was probably one of the best plays on Friday. Dang.
looks like correlation of 1 event is near. TLT selling, Gold Selling, no where to flee really. Personally i am in Gold, nat gas stocks and managed futures ETF atm. Managed futures etf seem to be doing good most are net short ES or have heavy cash positions.
Gold down TLT down, cash is king i guess
I agree with you on the weak job market/flight to safety, I’m just telling you that 20+Y bonds are primarily priced based on future inflation expectations (which are currently running high). You could be right about short term rate expectations, but even then they’re “short term” in nature — they only affect TLT’s price by a small margin compared to long term worries like inflation or risk of default. More rate cuts than expected cause 2Y bonds to skyrocket and TLT to have milquetoast rallies; probably not the result you’re betting on. I’d strongly suggest looking at other ETFs that trade shorter term bonds, say 2 to 5Y, since you’re structuring it around a recession thesis, which TLT doesn’t really care about. As for why TLT is going up recently, it’s linked to near-term dollar strengthening: stronger dollar = lower forex opp cost/better returns for investors = more demand for long-term bonds. It really doesn’t have anything to do with a 5Y recession outlook. Those only represent one sixth of a 30Y bond’s duration, institutions pure longing 30Y bonds do not care about the 5Y outlook, they’d trade 5Y or a yield curve trade to express that.
There is some money to be made in TLT.
This is why my allocation to bonds is 0%. Actually that's wrong. I just shorted TLT so it's some negative number.
$TLT just turned Green. The $DXY is back under 89. If Crude Oil top is in at 92 and we move back towards $86-$88 than the USD short squeeze failed.
You could totally be right that the early/mid term bonds are better. A couple non-optimal variables here for me in that I don't trade futures and I appreciate the high instrument liquidity. I also base my entries on a volume confirmation of a running macro thesis and I was seeing the stopping volume come into TLT hard. Today's price action post jobs news continues to confirm too. Premkt position low, insane absorption volume on a news event, and currently ripping higher through the day.
The economy is a disaster, private credit falling, clearly a crisis coming up soon... And QQQ is outperforming fuxking TLT on the day. This is so stupid lmao
Yeah once I heard the jobs report was bad I went to check TLT thinking it would be bright green. Yup, a fucking disappointment.
Why would anyone accept 4.8% for 18 years when the world has moved from zero inflation/deflation to inflation shocks every year which will means many chances of interest rates rising? TLT hasn't been a viable investment since pre-covid, the last time we had a zero-low inflation stable world
fucking dumb lol. bonds underperforming this much makes no fucking sense. Well I guess it makes sense, since in long TLT and literally everything I do turns out to be wrong
TLT dying along with SPY. This ain't good boys.
High oil inflation and rapid prices always leads to a slowdown and yields dropping. Apparently not now though, because im long TLT
Cutting short term rates won't affect TLT much, but Trump breaking the economy sure will.
And yet yields are up on this print go fucking figure. Im with you too with a very large TLT position and some calls and this week just makes no sense
Leveraged positions on the 10 and 30 yrs using IEF and TLT. Averaged in after retests of the huge reversal in October 2023. Could still be wrong, but I'm betting bonds will still hold as a flight to safety instrument. I also don't believe Trump would have hired someone in Warsh who wouldn't push hard for his cut agenda.
I decided to hedge my TLT position with a TMF short. No way this goes tits up. Also, I survived a 0dte call for strike 680 on spy today. I got lucky.
I ended up switching from BIL to SGOV, simply because shares are easier to round to 100, and using it as a buffer to absorb any potential csp assignments. Since yields are climbing back up/mean reverting, I may want to short TMF to hedge my TLT as long options haven't quite worked for me this far.
I'm gonna need to learn either Japanese or Korean to spend all this Yen & Won I'm banking in this $EWY and $EWJ trade. I incorrectly started buying $TLT since Trump wanted lower rates & a weaker USD. But the man is such a narcissist that every move Trump has made has convinced J-Pow dig in his heels even deeper to NOT cut rates. Trump has succeeded and tanking the USD thou. Meanwhile the rest of the world is watching & repatriating those dollars back home or into Gold.
Market can't rally until TLT appears bullish. So far seems like a bull trap.
There is always that possibility. But when you are 50% in cash or boring $TLT you can always take a swing for the fence now & then. All world markets are also not the same. If you compare $ACWX vs $EWY on the 5 yr charts I could see why you might say the latter could've had a blow-off top. The former? Naw.
I see the DXY dropping. On one hand, my TLT position is taking a slight hit. On the other hand, my SONY position is recovering. Weird world.
I should have sold my TLT on Friday when it was green. Ah well. I continue writing covered calls and dig my way out of the hole.
TLT trading like a meme coin
Marked safe from the great purge of WSB: TLT down, GLD down, SPY down, VIX and crude oil poppin’ 97% chance no rate cut in 15 days. Wtf is this market?
Inflation fears, I’m also massively long TLT but do understand the drivers. Higher fuel costs ripples through the economy in the form of higher cost of goods in every vertical.
I shorted TLT and SLV on Friday. AMA (as long as it has to do with the movie Rampart).
> However, I'm struggling to find good data for the bond/rates side with enough volume. 1. 10s and bonds are liquid as fuck (ugh, that came out very very wrong). But, if you already have access to IvyDB, I'd just use TLT vols 2. IIRC, IvyDB does not enforce put-call parity due to forwards, so you need to correct vols based on delta-weighting, if you want realistic numbers
Gold has replaced US 10 yr Treasuries as the new global reserve currency. I say this as a holder of $TLT. But if you are trading $TLT as I am you must hedge with Gold.
Took a loss on my TLT call position this morning. If its not gonna act like a safe haven in times of stress holding deep OTM calls is just gonna backfire. Long end yields should NOT be spiking on this development, so biting the bullet. Once we go down to support and Bond IV drops, I will be reentering but wih more time on the options
Looks like shorting bonds/TLT was the real play on Friday's close
TLT down more than SPY. looool
TLT is only down because it pays a monthly dividend. Bonds are looking pretty flat right now. The dividend would be partially priced into the calls you purchased.
Next ex-dividend for TLT. I expect it to keep crawling up in which case I may sell shares off in tranches.
$TLT Never Leaving #EmuArmy https://preview.redd.it/qg3brnvynimg1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce4c5300cba64901bdee4a71bfdb825125510158
TLT going to rocket once again
It seems like you have a low risk tolerance. Have you considered a bond ladder. I am getting close to 5 % on 20 year zero coupons. You also might consider something more like VYM, SCHD, VYMI and TLT. I would keep at one years worth of living expense in cash and slowly invest as your tolerance allows. Maybe something like : 25% Cash 25% bond ladder 25% income stocks/etf. SCHD VYM VYMI 25% Growth VOO, SPY VTI
should I start buying TLT for this recession
Believe it or not, calls on TLT or TMF
Wealthsimple on Canada. Apparently TLT traded as high as as 90.03 in AH so maybe that explains it but doesn't pass the smell test