TLT

TreGet234

It's so insanely oversold. I'm shocked this bond massacre hasn't destroyed more banks and pension funds. Only silicon valley bank. It's probably a good time to pick up TLT. If a recession hits rates can actually go down a lot again unlike when rates were near 0. But at the slightest hint of QE i could see a flight to gold instead while 30y yield stays pinned high. Faith in the bond market has been completely obliterated. (Yet banks and pension funds are eager to dabble into fake investment grade corporate debt and preferred stock instruments)

No-Improvement3164

TLT going to zero?

PutParadise

Yes sir. NDX is expensive, but it's an outstanding trading vehicle. I did struggle in June because of the "end" of the Iran war, which highly affected my commodities positions. I lost several in USO (and even IBIT / GLD). TLT struggled in June also. That was very atypical though and the market has returned to normal after the unwinding of all of the war related underlyings. July has been outstanding so far. I have around an 85% win percentage going back to 2020.

Important_Cucumber

TLT @ 5% plus covered calls can make a ton of money

WarmCan3034

so many plays but my money is trapped in TLT :(

BlackKnightsOptions

TLT under 83 yikes

spilledonwhite

Bought TLT calls last week. So far I am cooked. Last time it hit 5.20 it rapidly collapsed back down. WSB regards doesn't realize you can bet on rates and that rates actually impact stocks

torokunai

TLT is not feeling too good, Mr Stark

CoC_Axis_of_Evil

TLT looks bad for everyone. 

Own-Recipe5908

Down or up? Cause already true down. Don't think TLT catches a bid until the markets gets a BIG flush.

PutSpreadDaddi69

Unlikely call I'm making: TLT closes with a better % change than SPY today.

torokunai

TLT with an 83 handle is *no bueno*, yes

onerandomcomputerguy

I mean, no, TLT is getting slaughtered. You could say it's a bargain now but rates could go even higher

alexmark002

I will go slow and small. My majority portfolio are on long term bonds (TLT and TMF) Disinflation is taking place. The inflation is only happening on services, and everything else is in disinflation. that includes memory products. I'm watching the prices everyday.

Ceyenne18

According to OptionStrat, yesterday's flows: - Bullish by descending rank - MSTR, FCEL, DRAM, XOM, MRVL - Bearish by descending rank - TLT, DIA, HUT, PLTR, COIN

turboMXDX

Bagholding msft, Gold, TLT and memory lmao

jrex035

So how low do we expect TLT to go? Its currently at $83.83, close to the post-Covid low reached back in 2023 ($83.58), and not too far off from it's all time low of ~$81 from back in 2004

PutSpreadDaddi69

Amazing that the IWM still flat with TLT lower (rates higher)

Thin_Cat8817

Definitely not TLT

No-Improvement3164

TLT, Netflix Amazon or Microsoft? 🤔

Art_Crime

I don't agree. The government needs some amount of money printing to keep cash flowing to lenders and banks. Every single person in this thread is looking only at CPI and not core inflation. Core inflation iirc is the measure of inflation excluding gas and food. Currently, it sits at 2.5%. Furthermore, inflation encourages entities to invest and to spend money rather than hoard it. If i knew that inflation would be 0, then I would not buy VT, I would buy SGOV and TLT and just sit on it.

Fhyzikz

I use TLT. Price and yield have an inverse relationship so when price goes down, yield goes up. I like to park extra cash there whenever yield hits 5% or greater

rando9999912

You mean bond yields, right? TLT is pushing for new 52 week lows

Fhyzikz

If TLT goes any lower, I may need to full port it tbh

PutSpreadDaddi69

So obvious that the market is telling you rates are too high. SPY has the same shape as TLT

orange_asha

Buy TLT

PutSpreadDaddi69

TLT daddies wya

PutSpreadDaddi69

TLT will close on its highs.

spilledonwhite

Wait is there going to be IV crush on TLT options after CPI and PPI the next few days?

torokunai

Gold lost $4k again, down 2.7% TLT down .7% SPY down .7% mmm liquidation across the board

FinnM1

calls on CPI, feels like it never comes in cool anymore. TLT puts will probably move first though

Thin_Cat8817

i mean im also bearish on TLT, i personally think we will see 80, maybe even as low as 77 range on it, if it does go to 77 i would probably buy some though

turboMXDX

SGOV gives you 1.5% less yield without the risk of blowing up your capital. Who in their right mind would even consider TLT anyways

Thin_Cat8817

bonds getting dunked on again, TLT back to 84, will probably move even lower honestly

d33p7r0ubl3

TLT

TreGet234

Yes the higher rate you can lock in on your bonds the better. I would avoid the middle area of 10-20 years though. The shorter end 10 years and under is nice because a normal person might actually want to hold them to completion, and the yields aren't much lower than the 20+ year. The 25+ year will be the most rate sensitive and potentially a good temporary hold if rates come down on the long end due to a recession or easing of inflation fears. The mid end 10-20 years is kinda awkward having a ton of duration risk but not enough yield sensitivity. Though depending how things shake out they're still all good plays. Gotta keep in mind rates are now at around 2006 or 2007 level. So if things play out 2008 style then bonds will be a pretty amazing play. In the long term though gold should still outperform unless we get a big recession. Same with stocks. Bonds are kinda a safer and less leveraged play than an outright stock market short. The short is dead money if you're wrong about the timing, but a jackpot if you're right. Bonds will be mostly flat if you're wrong about the timing (TLT+reinvested dividends is up like 1.7% over the past year) and will have decent but not earth shattering returns if you're right. Bonds also hedge a japanification scenario quite well where both growth and inflation die and gold and stocks stay flat for a decade despite rate cuts to stimulate the economy. But again that's super unlikely to happen, gold is poised for another run. I've been looking at bonds too and just still can't justify it beyond like a 7 year bond if yields spike over 4.5% again. I would never ever buy a 30 year bond unless to specifically play and sell during the next recession to buy stocks/gold/crypto at a discount. Noone in their right mind should hold a 30 year bond to expiry because 5% ain't shit over that time horizon unless we are in 1980s japan right now.

TreGet234

SPX 710 by friday or monday after 😳 Google earnings at the latest. Then either blow off top until december or full stock market roll over into the upcoming recession. My TLT is locked and loaded. Rates have peaked.

TreGet234

TLT or 1x inverse spy etf? 🤔

vandalizethethief

LMAO, you are delusional. Look at a chart for FFS and look at the runup over the past few years. Remove AI and its flat to down. Also, inflation? I'm not saying get out it's going to crash tomorrow but a lot of individual stocks are at insanely high volatility versus the VIX. I am almost never a bear but the country is spending like well....Trump. Let's look at tech stocks & US government bonds. Google just started issuing shares for the first time since its IPO, MSFT halted buybacks for AI buildout, Meta and SPCX are renting excess compute to OpenAI and Anthropic who are deep in the red but want trillion dollar valuations. TLT (20+ year government bonds) is under $85 a share yielding 4.5%. Do you have any concept of how bad that is in a supposed time of stock prosperity? If Anthropic & OpenAI IPO this year I predict a massive plunge and flight of capital out of the US. SPX already underperformed every developed ETF region in the world last year & Emerging markets as well, why not again?

goodbodha

Risk scale sort of goes from Leveraged etfs Qqq or similar NASDAQ etfs Spy Equal weight spy Dividend etfs think schd Treasuries etfs On a separate list you got precious metals, corporate bonds, and commodities. I wouldn't bother with this section unless you want to hedge for specific risks. And of course there is also individual stock picks. Also global etfs and other equity market etfs such as Europe, Japan, China, etc. If you want to diversify that's good and all but usually when people say that they mean they think they have too much of some kind of risk. So hedge for that or tilt your portfolio a bit towards something with less of that risk. If your worried about let's say the market topping out sell some calls or buy some puts. If you sell the calls put that premium collected to work. Maybe buy some TLT or a different treasury etf. If the market goes up sell the treasuries and buy back the calls. If market goes down calls expire and you got the Treasury etfs hopefully doing well. If you worried about AI bubble perhaps buy some schd and lean away from AI that way. Whatever you do don't go buying leveraged bull or bear etfs. Those can work out but frequently burn people badly. Good luck

TreGet234

After heavy deliberation, the ideal bond etf allocation only needs IEI and TLT. ZROZ if you really wanna bank on a big crash. The 10-20 year range is kinda just dead weight. 3 year and under is fine too but doesn't really pop off in a recession.

TreGet234

Ok after heavy talk with ai, over a relatively short time horizon of 1-3 years, and assuming a somewhat realictic cutting cycle sequence, TLT should return about 20x the yield delta in long yields and ZROZ about 40x the yield delta in long yields. This cuts both ways though if rates keeo creeping up but for a recession ZROZ could be explosive.

TreGet234

Very good and better yield than TLT. One of the reasons i don't quite like bond funds. I rather just buy one at a good yield and lock it in to know exactly how it will behave mathematically. Not to mention be able to use that yield to buy stocks instead of more bonds at potentially less attractive yields. I do wonder if i should stick to lower duration, like 5-10 years. But now that yields are actually pretty damn high all things considered it's safer than ever to lock in long durations. The trauma from 10 years ago is still fresh though. If you bought some sub 1% long bonds you got absolutely obliterated.

TreGet234

Not sure yet. Asking ai, it seems TLT should grow in cumulative value by about 5% for every 0.5% that yields drop. ZROZ is a higher leverage version of that, doing about 2x that. So the higher yield bonds mainly just protect you in case yields stay high or keep creeping up. Meanwhile ZROZ is a full bet on yields going down.

melanthius

You'll have better luck trying to run wheel on TLT but this is likely more risk than it's worth, plus that's a bullish strategy on an underlying which isn't particularly bullish

PutSpreadDaddi69

TLT back to green vs open

Own-Recipe5908

Thinking TLT will see a bounce if panic keeps building sometime today. Gonna get a bunch (Yeah, yeah, scalping a percent ain't sexy).

zachmoe

Long term Treasury Bonds. More TLT.

hymie-the-robot

I am a fan. I would change TLT to KMLM because TLT has been highly correlated to equities in recent years, and I'd consider WTV instead of VT. IT is becoming mired in capex, with signs AI may lack pricing power, and already we're seeing a rotation out of the sector. so your pivot is timely.

Odd-Guava9894

The issue IMO is that even if you aren't looking for growth there are now products that accomplish the job of being safe in a downturn more effectively than a generic bond allocation these days. If you are talking short term cash equivalents when you talk bonds, like SGOV, then I see the place for them, hell if you are talking about buying and holding individual bonds until expiration, they can make sense, but I don't think holding intermediate or long term bond funds as a hedge against downturns makes any sense at all these days, which is what most people end up doing when they hear they need to hold bonds. They are not uncorrelated enough to be a proper hedge, and not safe enough to justify the shit yields. If someone retiring just before COVID had gone all in on BND or God forbid TLT, because they heard bonds were safe in a downturn they'd be absolutely fucked. About the only situation where a large bond allocation makes sense to me is in a barbell strategy to offset some form of leveraged equity exposure, usually LEAPS options, and only short duration bonds even in that case.

xade93

Seeing this post at 2026 is absolute insane. TLT dropped 50% from highest point, historical low since like 2001, while stocks been in historical high

Lostrader7

SPY TLT BTC/Gold

abinferno

TLT and SHY list prices are flat over 20 years, so the only return you got is interest minus inflation, which is what, 2% over that time frame? Bonds have been a huge opportunity cost over a very long period of time.

Pristine_Berry1650

Ill have to check out BND, im only familiar with TLT and SHY

madalytical

US Treasuries, especially long-term ones, are going to EXPLODE upwards in value TLT/TMF, we're weeks away mark this post and watch it happen against all odds; party forth!

TreGet234

TLT looking like a snack to capture both rising dxy and the coming disinflation and cutting cycle during upcoming market volatility eoy.

NurUrl

I’ve just read something about the AI Dollar (in my opinion, it’s more like a memory dollar), a sort of cousin to the petrodollar, and that would explain why the DXY and the TLT are moving up alongside the memory boom… I suppose Warsh was right: you can have a strong dollar and low interest rates… Let’s see how this turns out What the AI-Dollar is well, SK and Taiwan are using the dollars they earn from exports and reinvesting them in US Stock Market and Treasury bonds, Basically "Petrodollar Recycling" and yada yada...

AM_STARR

They’re dirt cheap, literally 1$ per contract at 7/10 exp. Worth the upside all day since TLT has hit 100% spikes during big crashes. I’m loaded up on like 80 contracts spread through feb

vermilli21

I still think about that guy that went all in on TLT July calls and everyone called him an idiot.....hes probably living life now

AM_STARR

If you guys are smart, you will load up on deep otm TLT calls

j4c11

TLT mooning

HaveAKlondike

TLT gap fill and then dump

alfred250

TLT is up 5% from the May lows

jrex035

Most of my portfolio is in ETFs, with most of that tracking the S&P and the remainder largely in semis. They've done well this year so far. Overall I'm still beating the S&P, but not by much. But in my primary trading account I sold much of my holdings to buy BNO, O&G equities, and green energy equities with the thesis that the biggest energy crisis in history would benefit them, then I was planning to rotate out and repurchase my old holdings and anything else that looked solid (with an expected discount). My strategy worked, for a short time. Then the ceasefire caused me to lose most of those gains. I held and bought the dip on a lot of my holdings because I knew the Strait wouldn't reopen for months to come. And that worked too, I kept bouncing back to ATHs for 2 months right before another barrage of "peace deal imminent" bs sent my holdings spinning again and again. With the MOU signed (for the 3rd time somehow) I ate my losses on about half my energy holdings and went looking for good buys. Bought across multiple sectors looking for defensive holdings, good dividends, solid earnings, and growth (semis, mining, shipping, foreign markets, utilities, TLT, etc). Only for most of those to promptly fall off a cliff in the last week, I'm probably down another ~8% on those collectively already, all while my energy holdings drop ~2% daily. Tl;dr I missed out on the semis/memory/market rally from April to early June, just to get buttfucked by the recent pullback across the board anyway. Apparently nothing is more bearish for energy than the largest supply interruption in history, which is *still* draining inventories at a historic pace. Silly me.

HaveAKlondike

TLT puts and SLV calls?

j4c11

TLT mooning

BBBY4ever

After all these years, is it finally time for TLT and bonds? No, couldn’t be.

tropicalia84

Small caps and TLT absolutely parabolic today Big money already has the PCE report for tomorrow and it’s ICE COLD

Fhyzikz

TLT has been zoomin

sonofalando

2% day on TLT 🍺

HaveAKlondike

TLT 🔥🔥🔥

DesignerSea494

I’ve been slowly loading up TLT like a boomer.

zachmoe

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fS2qS85Ru9I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fS2qS85Ru9I) I would do something more like. 30% TFLO 20% TLT 33% VT 15% IAU 2% BTC

sonofalando

Damn, yields falling or course after I rotate out of TLT 🤡🤡🤡

Medium_Beautiful_721

TLT is ripping. We are so cooked

CoC_Axis_of_Evil

TLT and gold moving together as well 

InquisitorCOC

If we can get away without rate hikes after SoH was blocked for 3+ months, it would be truly amazing Right now most only see 1 rate hike this year Today, gold is down the most, TLT is up a little, and USD is up a lot

ideletedmyaccount04

Some body is selling, its not me. I am tied up in $TLT till 7/17.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

TLT little upward channel lately 

zxc123zxc123

I'm not going to say he's right all the time but folks think he's still a bear when he's not? Dude used to be a hedge fund guy so he'd be short or neutral. Hedge funds aren't designed with the goal to beat the S&P500 or whatever benchmark. They are designed so rich folks can under perform the S&P500 but sleep better knowing if shit happened they'd have some insurance policy. During the GFC many of those hedge funds didn't pan out. Michael Burry's did. Then MB close his hedge fund and opened Scion capital. It's mostly personally owned so he didn't have to deal with investors or whatever. It's NOT a hedge fund so he's been mostly long but he's still a hedgefund/contrarian guy so he'll opportunistically short. He's made both right calls and wrong calls. I remember I went long TLT when he was short and Buffet was short/neutral. Dude caught the bottom for the China tech. Also made money with the quick in&out on the TSLA short. Dude isn't like Chanos so he doesn't commit to shorts, but he's also not like Buffet so he'll exit longs quickly too. That's why I don't even try to mirror his plays like I do Buffet who I use as a "Berkshire will do the vetting homework for me" (bought BAC a bit lower than Buffet did in 2020. Also started stacking AXP which has turned out pretty great). Twitter MB however is the worse. He'll say sensationalist shit for personal reasons. Either cause he's off-spectrum or because he wants to manipulate the markets. It's even more worthless than looking at his 13F. Folks should realize by now that free investment advice on the internet is worthless if not worth less than that cause if it's worth 2 cents then they'd have charged you that $0.02.

jrex035

B, SILJ, TLT, XLU, PICK, EWY, VXUS, IAU. Managed to buy the daily top on most of them somehow lmao

gamebak

I would diversify way more and I wouldn't allocate more than 5% in the first month to this strat. From that 5% (about 100k) diversify into at least 10 different trades, try to find uncorrelated ones and go far OTM. I would also consider doing TLT for starters, while you can't go that far OTM, you don't have a lot of volatility in it. Ape-ing into QQQ will sure blow out when a 7% drop or more in the market.

mneymaker

Yeh you right. He bought 400 x AMD 340C for Dec '27. 600k ->11M with today's value. His 1,5 MIL on TLT calls, gone.

mneymaker

Ayo i remember a guy posting 10 months ago a big ass bet on AMD leaps like $3m and hedges with some TLT or some shit. I think this guy has x10 both his main play and his hedge LMAO

VariationConstant675

Short term TLT, it should bounce as there will be bailouts.....AI is true and the biggest beneficiaroea will be, again application....drug, healthcare and of course, softwares...

6bigbrother

TLT has historically been the best hedge. That could be different this time around.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

TLT may never be green again 

fudge_mokey

TLT needs a bit of a pump. Once we see rates drop, we can hit 7600 on the SPX

fire_alarmist

Friendly reminder the TLT bond ETF is hitting lows and breaking down past levels last seen in 2007. 20 and 30 years bond yields are almost identical. Bond market pricing in the fact that the US literally will not exist in 20 years L0L

Sagelllini

No, they have not recovered. For TLT, the IShares long term treasury fund, the discount to par on the entire portfolio is in the neighborhood of 25% (when I looked last).

Akaberes

Try TLT

aftherith

TLT giving it back

No-Improvement3164

Is TLT going bankrupt?

OnceInaLifetimeee

What's TLT?

QuantumStrix

Long space, short robots, long Bitcoin, short TLT - you will make a ton of money

ideletedmyaccount04

Rare $TLT win today boys. I am at a post great financial crisis high here. <3

aftherith

Going up on bad news boys. Be careful. TLT up oil down index is bouncing on theoretically very bad news.

Reynhart

Damn, my electric bill increased like 12% this month over last :/ Puts on TLT

_WhatchaDoin_

When bonds are getting crushed by inflation and increased rates? (Don’t look at the perf of TLT for the past 7 years 🤣). Thank goodness for VXUS though.

torokunai

moving $14k in my 401k from cash to my funds on Monday may have been premature. Today gave back Tuesday's TLT gain so the bond component in this $14k wad may still be neutral I guess.