TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
Pretty much. Even r/bonds kind of hates TLT at this point. Which is also why I started looking at it in the first place as usually once everyone hates something, that's right before the countertrend rally starts lol. Like on Friday, TLT/VGLT dropped more than the actual S&P. But I fully realize it could backfire, so short-term and intermediate bonds as well as TIPS are probably better if you want to avoid the volatility.
Yeah, that's why I have typically stayed out of long bonds. The only reason I dabbled a bit in them last Friday actually is they're just so historically depressed the risk was decent. I've got no illusions of TLT going back to $130, but even back to the mid-90s would be a 10% gain right now on top of the high 4% dividend.
I have 50 shares of SGOV in reserve. I am writing a July covered call on my Franklin Resources shares, and maybe shorting TMF to hedge my TLT. That or rolling down some new puts.
I don't know much about bonds but I'm buying TLT calls
$ACWX, $GLD, $EWY, $EWJ I wanted 25% $TLT, 25% Gold, 25% World ex US, 25% Asia Pacific I'm still a gambler that believes in cycles. I like Asia Pacific growth. The best rock n roll is coming from Japan and South Korea right now. I am a big believer that economies that are growing spend & take more risks with money on the arts : ) I am looking at World plus US ETF and something like the $SPY next. Individual stocks cause too much stress. Life is too short. Good luck.
We may actually reach the TLT 52 week low
That TLT dump is diabolical. This market is cooked. We’re gonna have bread lines next year.
Glad I moved my HSA out of TLT
AT&T is up 3%. Unfortunately I bought $TLT instead which is an absolute dogshit hedge down over 1.5% today.
you open a TLT bulls freezer and there's just one pint of store brand Vanilla ice cream and an empty ice tray
TLT baggies in fucking shambles
Thought I was the only one $TLT 🔮
TLT is Robschild’s favorite place to be
Waited for the last few minutes to reload my 87 May 15 puts for TLT. Sold two CSPs, 85 for April 1st to help offset the costs. Also sold my BIL and some SGOV to accept a CSP assignment.
I am as bearish as you are, But you have to have some skin in the game. Look at buying gold & a world ex-US etf if you don't want to buy these stocks. I bought $ACWX but there all basically the same. $ACWX and Gold are currently 50% of my port after BTD in both pretty heavy today and each is equal now to my 25% position in $TLT position. I do have big positions in $EWY and $EWJ but many here don't like my bet on Asia Pacific. You don't have to buy American overpriced stocks.
Agreed, very tough to trade. I've been fucking around with Tiny Spy and TLT position to keep active, but it's a lot of just watching and dumb shit. Bought some Lion calls, it will get a retail pump when Michael comes out. Good weekend and it's 12/13. Best case scenario and we get some irrational exuberance and get to 15/16. I like the risk reward set/up.
Consumer staples are always good as defensive stocks. But they're still equities. When equities crash, consumer staples will take a hit. They just rebound faster than the rest of the market. The better recession hedges are Treasuries: VTIP/STIP: short-term TIPS. Good for inflationary shocks -- like right now. SPTI/VGIT: intermediate Treasuries. Neutral ballast. SPTL/VGLT/TLT/EDV: deflationary shock absorbers. 2008 + 2020 style crisis hedges.
Where else is the money going to go? In 2001 and 2002 you had a cascada forced selling and a complete change in the dynamics of the market. 2008 more forced selling. 2022 was actually fairly mild for as fast as rates went up. Here you have a short-term oil crisis, it really can't be long-term without creating demand destruction. Your warning sign would be when the long end of the curve begins to rally and TLT starts trading above 92 if equities are also going down. Europe is in a much worse situation, lots of money went there, it's looking for another home if this is going to continue. You have inflationary forces in a backdrop like the war. Do you really want to sit on cash? So? Where do you guys think money should rotate to? Gold that went from $1,000 to $5,000 in a decade? Historical rise? Real estate? Don't even have to explain that right? You would think the situation would be terrible for small caps but they are holding up pretty decent, why? Valuation and nowhere else to go. The places most at risk or where you have the most leverage
That’s my base case also, I bought TLT leaps banking on emergency rate cuts before the end of the year
Im gonna hold, keep selling CCs after green moves, and buy a shitload of calls once IV comes down or TLT drops more.
You mean there’s more than MU SNDK WDC and TLT? 😂
Let me know your strategy on $TLT. I know bottoms are usually formed w/ washouts after the last bull throws in the towel. I still have about a third of my $TLT position, but I've been in this trade for nearly 18 months. I can get a similar short term interest rate at a credit union as a CD if I just want to watch paint dry.
I own $TLT and I had accumulated a large position anticipating rate cuts due to rising unemployment. Once Crude Oil started spiking after Trump foolish bombed Iran, I started dumping. I sold every single $TLT tax lot above my cost basis. They can't lower rates now with the energy spike. Now energy inflation could cause so much damage that we could have demand destruction. If the Fed announces any emergency rate cuts, that would be the signal to buy $TLT or other bond ETF's.
Deer diharre i am born in 2007 and I want lambo and mog other man. Cook 67. Dad sayz buy TLT and internet forum sayz many gay stuff.
LMAO so much for worrying about my TLT being called away with these 0 DTE covered calls lmao. TIMBERRRRRR
Sold 0 DTE Covered Calls against my large TLT position that are only 0.15% OTM right now. Come on TLT lets finish at 87.49 or 87.50 on the dot
Fade whatever narrative is supporting bonds whenever TLT goes above 90
I bought TLT puts as a hedge for the fomc meeting. I also closed out my Sony covered call. Will see if it tries to recover tomorrow before reloading it.
Long TLT and short GLD. That’s all.
I'd say this is a very good answer. Will just add that gold isn't some magic inverse trade against other assets like VOO, VT, TLT, or cash. If you wanted to go inverse on those then it's SH etf, puts on VT, shorts on TLT, or using margin/debt on cash. When you long gold you're basically choosing *a low-vol alt asset* that has **long-term** inflation hedge properties. It helps you preserve wealth and if you are holding physical then it a hedge against national failure in addition to being a hedge against fiat/dollar devaluation (again over the long run). Will just add that gold is still a non-productive asset that works on supply & demand which is partially based on speculation. Gold already had a massive run up due to markets (and central bank) demand which priced in very high risk. *Gold was already in consolidation before the war broke out AND the dollar spiked so very likely the* ***markets had priced in a worse situation for war too*** *so when it didn't then gold price would naturally see a downward move relative to a rising dollar.*
SGOV for any kind of bonds. Just look what BND did since 22’…..not very good. TLT is even worse.
I bought TLT Friday, first time in several months
The narrative is focused on oil, I don’t think oil will stay elevated for long. I have a 1:20 odds trade on TLT not much to lose but if it works it will be a great trade.
If you ain’t long TLT right now you hate money imo
At least TLT is positive on the day. Hope you went with some duration.
Short term SGOV or long term TLT? If it is short term, really good.
ok wtf is happening? TLT pumping along with ibit and spy is SUS
They wrote an article just for you. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-real-market-shock-is-in-long-bonds-200720064.html Yer kind of an idiot for buying TLT. This was a known risk. Sell America is actually happening and people are still trying to deny it. It's not the end of the world for the USA yet, but some serious shit has started to move, and once it starts moving, it's not going to stop.
You can blame me. I just sold all but $20k of $TLT today. I will wait and buy $SGOV at the beginning of April if this bear doesn't get his $VT and $ACWX market crash low to buy : ) Who f\*ck cares about missing this month's $TLT divy payment. I want my cash and I want it now. I'm fine hiding out in cash & soybeans until then.
It's the year 2040, someone you know is still trying to convince you to go long TLT.
lmao this shit is hilarious. TLT on track for its worst week since April last year. Last 2 times I have had TLT as my top positions: April 2025, and now. Literally, I just TLT, then it has its worst week in a fucking year since the LAST time I held it. Cursed
wtf is the 1 day chart for TLT man
Going full degen: 0DTE SPY strangle because CPI is gonna choose violence, then if it whipsaws I'm hiding in TLT calls like it's a bunker. If we get a fake pump at open I'm shorting NVDA for a scalp and immediately regretting it.
it's clear as day they're on at least day 3 of a frenetic onslaught on oil prices. i think they or the Fed are selling some Treasury/TLT holdings to do so, which is injecting liquidity into the market and propping up the indexes just enough to not collapse
I'd agree if it wasn't my largest position. I've been buying a lot this week and decided to use $TLT instead of cash to clear my margin. Gambler's tendencies to keep cash out of my brokerage account : )
TLT keeps bottoming in the 86-86.50 range, I think it's a time to buy it if anything
I just cut my $TLT position in half. So since I am the worse market timer ever you might want to check out those calls. I don't know what I'm doing apparently. None of the traditional hedges are working as they should. I just wanted to clear all margin in 1 clean swoop.
I might lose gambling on SPY options but at least I'm not a TLT bol
I realized gains by scalping shorts yesterday. But have a large unrealized loss on TLT. If Ford dips below 11.80, I might sell a CSP for 11 or so. But it's a knife that just keeps falling.
TLT no likey. Godl subdued for some reason tho
Bonds drilling... TLT 📉
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT
You're preaching to the choir. $TLT is still my largest position despite being a dumpster fire for the 15 or so months since I thought I could time the market and rotated into US Treasuries. It's sad that acting rashly & dumped 25% of that position before close yesterday was a good choice. On the bright side after we all lose money here in the markets we may actually kill inflation due to demand destruction. None of us are gonna have any money left to spend.
TLT will be at 50 when rates hit 7%. Get your puts now.
Why, so I can lose more money? Unless TLT explodes next 2 days, im now at 8 straight red weeks. Cursed right now
Oof. To be a TLT bagholder. Ah well, roll more covered calls and DCA in some more.
Use what you recovered from your failed TLT calls and buy puts?
Not shorting but I wish I was. Shorting would be a smaller loss than long TLT because this market is the fucking dumbest thing ever
lmao TLT at a new low and down in the 86s now. So I blow my account up with EOSE. Get defensive with SGOV and TLT. Private credit issues, a new war, negative jobs numbers... and somehow of all the major asset classes, TLT is the worst one since I made it 40%+ of my port. TLT getting outperformed by stocks, shitcoin, gold, everything during what should be a growth scare. This is legit so fucking stupid. I have a thesis, its turning out dead on, and still getting fucked because the normal correlations have apparently completely gone out the window. Fuck this shit
If TLT opens sub 87 tomorrow I will buy one kidneys worth of it
buy TLT today and you too can lose money slowly! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
I’m unironically happy for you. Bulls make money, bears make money, TLT owners hold generational bags.
Oh I agree. I still own 1000 shares of $TLT. It just hasn't served it's purpose so even if it runs up I feel like there is more money to be made moving some of that cash elsewhere. Now if someone here is scared of the market today and doesn't have a position in $TLT it is NOT a bad day to buy.
I ended up down 12% on the TLT calls. Not a huge deal they were less than 2% of my port. IV was high on them so took advantage to exit the position for now. If there is a left tail event, TLT is going to explode, espeically with how net short big money is on short TLT in a very crowded trade. A sharp slow down in macro plus that positioning and TLT calls will be the best place to be in the market. Problem is just timing it.
Whats your positions? I’m short IWM and TLT long term, eating good on TLT.
$TLT is only down 2% for the week. If you don't need the cash today buying the shares is not a bad idea. Now I'd never buy $TLT calls. The problem for me is that it is no longer working as a market hedge.
Capitulated on my TLT calls, keeping the common shares. Time for TLT to rip and me to get even more angry :)
That monthly triangle on TLT is terrifying
I don't have data for TLT, but if you invested in government bonds in Jan 1941, after inflation, you would still be flat after 45.5 years. During the bear market of 1966-1974 (9 years), you would have been down -0.60% p.a. in real terms. The set up today--threats to fed independence, gold ripping, oil shock, loss of faith in the USD, etc.--is much more similar to that era than to bear markets of the 2000s, which came during the greatest bond bull market of all time.
Because historically, TLT is the best performing asset in bear markets and when the economy slows. 2022 was the one exception due to interest rates rising so much during said bear market. US was running dumb unsustainable defecits from 2018 to 2020 and TLT went from 112 to 150. Look at how it performs in the past during market stress and economic stress.
Buy $EWY and $DE next. I have the uncanny superpower to buy market tops. In all seriousness I'm in the process of moving to 20% $TLT, 20% $GLD, 20% $VT, and 20% $ACWX, 20% individual stocks/ETF mix. I was previously 50% $TLT, 25% $GLD, 25% in stocks. This volatility this week has everything out of whack thou & is very messy. I haven't started my 20% goal towards $VT since that cash is currently all over the place and I have all this cash from selling quite a bit of $TLT yesterday.
Why the hell would you buy long-duration government bonds when we haven't shown any fiscal discipline this century? There's nothing I enjoy more than making fun of crypto, and even I would rather own BTC than TLT. (Not touching either.)
Ah I see. Now that TLT is 50% of my portfolio it will just go down every single day no matter what. Horrible jobs print? Sure, lets crash TLT. Oil up? Yeah, crash TLT. Oil down? Fuck yeah, crash TLT. Feels like a Truman show situation where they just short whatever my positions are.
no untrue but I think TLT is performing especially bad because we've been doing the "massive inflation wave about to come" song and dance for over a year. Truly think that the same people who used to lecture us that high costs <> inflation are now confusing permanently high costs with continued rapid inflation, and they're all waiting or it to appear in the CPI report
Buying a TLT position because you think the economy is in the poopers and yields will drop due to a deflationairy impulse != locking into a 30 year bond. Not to mention the duration on TLT is around 15 to 16 not 30.
I dumped 25% of my $TLT position yesterday, so it will likely rally. $SGOV would have been the better choice. I would be careful w/ buying gold. If Crude Oil can have these wild swings gold could next and it would more likely be down then up.
Cool, TLT continues to get beaten down every single day even though the job market is cooked and high oil price shocks historically always lead to deflation. Wonder what position i should move into next that shits the bed every single day for no reason
Oil aside TLT is falling off a cliff. I think the bond market is starting to get fussy. Watch out
The Straight of Hormuz is watching bully one punch bully two, bully two punch everyone else then saying "bully one started it." It's going to suck for everyone in the short term, but it's unintentionally going to make Trump and co look better in the long run. So...covered calls on TLT and tactical use of TTT, it appears.
Yes, kind of. Levered etfs rebalance daily so it’s really the long way to lever up. Read about it. Calls on TLT probably better for that.
Fokls are in denial about EVERYTHING. Just gotta hold this TLT position until the market wakes the fuck up to reality, whenever that is
Damn once the market realizes the job market is cooked, AI is deflationairy, and spiking oil prices cause demand destruction, this TLT position and TLT call position (which Is super small and im waiting for a drop to buy more) are gonna print.
There's a 3rd category you are forgetting. Average American - They are getting crushed by stagflation and are trying to get by with the short dollar trade. It might be different in Canada. But if my salary hasn't kept up with inflation since COVID I have to have a side hustle. And shorting the dollar thru $GLD, $DE, $EWJ has worked way better than $TLT.
I had about 40% of my portfolio in TLT! I sold it during the pump yesterday and went all to cash. I will need the money in 9 months and IMHO, the potential for stagflation from this war is too high. Iran's leadership seems pretty entrenched and they have an asymmetric advantage due to the geography of the strait. Also, if oil fields and refineries are shuttered (and they are being closed down right now), it can take weeks to get them back online, so even if the war ends tomorrow, we are looking at higher prices. And high oil prices will kill bonds. I decided the risk reward wasn't worth it so I sold.
soft print TLT is the cleanest long hot print GLD holds, TLT bleeds, SPY continues fading. Nfa
I'd also like to invite everyone to give me an advice on when to close my $TLT calls. Apparently, everyone's happy to give a suggestion, but no one wants the accountability.
Guess I should've help CRM longer. Can't figure out this trendless day though. Every chart looks like a bunch of Vs. There have been three V shape drops/recoveries on MSFT, TLT, CRM, etc. already
In my trading account im short s&p futures, and long puts, long wheat futures calls on this geo conflict trade and long copper futures puts. I also have a small position in PATH calls. Retirement account is mostly cash, small PATH position, ETH on this selloff, TLT, SQQQ, and QQQ puts. The sqqq shares and qqq puts are hedges that will be taken off and put back on as often as necessary. Every bounce we get i put the trade on and after the selloff taken off.
TLT was probably one of the best plays on Friday. Dang.
looks like correlation of 1 event is near. TLT selling, Gold Selling, no where to flee really. Personally i am in Gold, nat gas stocks and managed futures ETF atm. Managed futures etf seem to be doing good most are net short ES or have heavy cash positions.
Gold down TLT down, cash is king i guess
I agree with you on the weak job market/flight to safety, I’m just telling you that 20+Y bonds are primarily priced based on future inflation expectations (which are currently running high). You could be right about short term rate expectations, but even then they’re “short term” in nature — they only affect TLT’s price by a small margin compared to long term worries like inflation or risk of default. More rate cuts than expected cause 2Y bonds to skyrocket and TLT to have milquetoast rallies; probably not the result you’re betting on. I’d strongly suggest looking at other ETFs that trade shorter term bonds, say 2 to 5Y, since you’re structuring it around a recession thesis, which TLT doesn’t really care about. As for why TLT is going up recently, it’s linked to near-term dollar strengthening: stronger dollar = lower forex opp cost/better returns for investors = more demand for long-term bonds. It really doesn’t have anything to do with a 5Y recession outlook. Those only represent one sixth of a 30Y bond’s duration, institutions pure longing 30Y bonds do not care about the 5Y outlook, they’d trade 5Y or a yield curve trade to express that.