TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
I full ported into TLT when I thought the world was going to end. I was wrong. Made money on interest and selling off when it bounced but lagged the market overall. 🥲
Ok, this was kind of answered correctly by one or two replies on here, but to clarify: **The price of 0.01 has everything to do with the fact that there are no bidders and nothing else.** It doesn’t mean the stock sucks or that it’s too far OTM (it is a large percentage but options are priced more for the dollar value difference for low-priced stocks, rather than percentages anyways). Try really hard not to get options on low volume… even if it’s a great stock (like Lockheed Martin or TLT which is based on US Treasuries - these both have low volume despite their value) low volume will still give you suboptimal fills, causing you to lose immediately upon purchase. Only 0 bid scenarios like this or 0 time value can allow it to go to 0 premium (or in rare cases, there could be a buyout and your contract strike is above the buyout price which makes it inherently worthless).
This wasn’t my only trade. I actually started with a volatility arbitrage play on TLT 87.5 call last week that turned $25 to $70 or $90 and from there I kept building. The UNH call was only $1.33 yesterday
Yeah, even if the market does sell hard on a 2022 esque JH speech, it's not going to be meaningful ultimately unless you get back QQQ running in lockstep with TLT due to inflation worries OR you just lose this index for a while because of worries over AI getting over its skis. It's worth saying over and over again, the S&P (and even the not as tech reliant Dow) can handle IWM being stuck in the mud, they have for a few years now, what they CAN'T handle however is the Nasdaq getting hammered, which at this point, if it does occur, it doesn't look as if it'll be directly policy related (the Nasdaq hit the brakes this week more on AI infra selling and then semi equipment getting hit hard on AMAT earnings).
If you think they are in fact going to cut rates, TLT...
Not sure if I should liquidate my TLT position. The bond market is cooked
Thinking about TLT calls for next year bc somehow Trump always gets his way
This upped the chances of Jackson Hole next week being very spicy, but for any chances of us actually seeing the market potentially punish Trump hard on this, this regime we've been in since early 2023 needs to go away. It's going to be impossible to get the S&P to go down if tech is holding up. We'd need to first see TLT down tech down start occurring if we were really going to replay 2022 to some extent, and considering the way the market opened, I'd think you'd need another set of hot prints for August to start seeing this occur. The market can handle IWM struggling, it can't handle QQQ struggling.
All bonds lost significant value in 2022-2025 due to inflationary fiscal policy post covid and unprecedented fast monetary tightening from the FED. The last time anything like this happened was the 1970s. Longer duration debt like SPTL (similar to TLT) is a hallmark of classic portfolio theory, as longer duration debt is more sensitive to rate changes and macro conditions. In a classic recession like the GFC or dot com or a shock like the pandemic lockdown, long duration government debt like SPTL spikes in value, because the investment opportunities in the real economy dry up or become extremely uncertain, so balance sheets for all investors seek more stable safe flight to safety assets like bonds. This demand drives down yield and drives up bond price. The robo-advisor added these in as a hedge for drawdowns. Despite the steep drawdown in the recent bond bear market as of now this fund is giving you ~15 yrs effective duration exposure to treasury bonds, yielding ~5% at the moment. Theyre lowly correlated or negatively correlated to the stock market the vast majority of the time, so the robo-advisor will be rebalancing between bonds and stocks, similar to a target date fund, but the rebalancing effect will be larger since the volatility of longer duration debt is much higher than something like BND. There are fair criticisms of long duration debt right now, like donald trumps terrible fiscal policies of spend spend spend, on track to keep increasing the deficit year over year despite tarrif revenue. This is bad for bonds, because it makes us less likely to repay without inflating the currency, which could potentially keep rates high and bond price low.
Do you guys realize how strong inflation has to be for TLT to drop with jobs numbers as horrendous as they were? This is terrible stuff.
The thing that's happened since early 2023 is that the Nasdaq just isn't as sensitive as it has been to rate movements (the odd thing is rates just went to flat though here) if there are inflation worries. It's just been small caps that are sensitive. If we were actually going to do this like the lead up to 2022, you'd need to see a LOT more TLT down tech down days start popping up and have this be the day where it begins probably, for now if it were to get hit next year, I still think it'll be on other issues first.
Inflation is bad for TLT
wtf why is TLT correlated with equities right now.
TLT dropped by a pubic hair. Weird
TLT up. Institutions rushing to buy bonds ahead of rate cuts. Majority of that money coming from the stocks you own.
OK so core is 3.1 ... and TLT is rising. Since the Fed has dual mandate to control inflation **and** unemployment ... the bond market expects unemployment to rise. Logic.
Bro, I need to log off. I saw that AMD guy's post and thought, "yeah, TLT is a good hedge".
Definetly, I will be downvoted, by saying this: Majority active traders failure does not mean you will fail without trying it ! It is a blind acceptance !! Once you try it and if you can not time it or failed to make it, then whatever you said here is right for you. Just invest in stocks or etfs and keep DCA whenever you get extra money. If you are able to time it, then you are in the minority winning group. Here is your chance to beat the market. **All I sees this, market gives many opportunities, it is up to the individual to make use of it.** Initially, I stuggled, but latter on, I am trained (and believe my analysis) to pick the stocks. I choose well known stocks when they are corrected too much. Even in the valueinvesting blog, majority recently said NVO, LLY,UNH are not worth buying at this low, but I decided to buy, dca and hold as my own analysis gave me strength to get in low. Now, they are all up. Even if they come down and goes negative, I will keep DCA from here. I bought BRK-B at $260, $360 and now $460 (recent) holding part of my portfolio. This year I bought CRWV average $37.5, holding it. Today, I started BLSH (experimental) with 5% down now. I have been doing this for many years like this 25% of cash in addition to regular QQQ,SMH,SPY and TLT allocation. Out of the last 8 years, only 2020 I was below SPX, rest of the years 8% to 15% better than SPX.
That rubin thing was not a part of your original thesis. And You still won’t answer how TLT is a hedge for Amd.
"Bonds booming" TLT ain't even at 88 yet lol. Pretty much everything is booming except bonds and USD. Only buy stocks and crypto, apparently everything else is junk.
Yeah, my hedge is a handful of far OTM puts on SPY and TLT 6-9 months out, rolling as needed to keep theta decay manageable.
Your risk in the TLT my friend. We are done with the low rate debt cycle. Rates are going to skyrocket my friend, even if if the Fed does QE to cut yields. At some point they won't be able to keep the rates low without turning us into Zimbabwe and will have to let yields rise to match debt risk , of course that is if we have an independent FED. So your bet is basically the Federal reserve will print enough money to soak up most of the demand for the entire bond market to get rates below 3 percent.
Time for leap Calls on TLT then?
Yeah def sitting this out. This everything pump is absolute insanity. Might buy TLT if it drops to a decent level but that's it
Thanks. I am not a bond guy so I don't know how this works. I do think 82 for TLT was the bottom
The reality is that we lost the Nasdaq trading off inflation concerns in early 2023 after regional bank fest. Until the QQQ/TLT pair starts acting like how it did in parts of 2021 and the entirety of 2022, most declines by it are not going to be off inflation worries.
TLT says this pump is fake
i've decided my TLT position is just going to be a dividend product now. i'm not even going to look at the share price. lol.
TLT 👀. Bond traders pricing in inflation eating the real yield
At least my TLT puts are rational and not moving like a rate cut is coming
TLT isnt too impressed with core yoy being above expectation, so is the Fed I'm assuming. Still need more data to see how inflationary tariffs are
TLT dumping isn’t a good sign
Is it actually insane that I think CPI was leaked and the numbers are fine? I'm red on both gold and bonds. Wouldn't those be the 2 that institutions would flock to if they were expecting bad numbers? TLT in particular is dumping
TLT blows now that the world doesn't want our bonds lol
Thats my hope too. TLT calls 1dte for tomorrow
Just went full retard on TLT for tomorrow. Wish me luck.
Need more TLT and Healthcare pump.
You’ll realize over 100k just on TLT dividends through ‘27 if you keep the position, notwithstanding any rise/drop in underlying
Depends what you're trying to achieve. I have positions in T-bills (SGOV would be the closest match), VCLT, TLT, ANGL, FXNAX, MUB, and some individual in-state municipal bonds. > I know of only a few that are worth investing maybe 5% of someones portfolio in. Is that to say, in your view, for *anyone* regardless of their age or investment goal time horizon, you can only imagine at most, 5% allocation into bonds?
I'm reminded of that one regard who dropped 600K on $AMD $360 leaps hedged with TLT
Bond prices and bond yields always move in opposite directions The TLT yield is highly correlated with the current federal funds rate. If the Fed cuts rates, TLT yields drop, and TLT spot price rises as a result of what I stated above. What would make the Fed cut rates? A recession.
I don't get how TLT is a hedge for AMD? AMD could shit the bed, the fed may or may not cut. Not exactly the negative correlation you're looking for in a hedge
TLT will not be soaring bruh
Amd announces some stock offering and then TLT fucks you in the ass. This will be outcome
I think your TLT hedge is an excellent play! That alone has the potential to double in case of a serious market drawdown. Leave it untouched, enjoy the divvy. Enjoy the melt up with AMD - but I'd exit AMD position after significant gain by early fall. Well played.
Well I get why OP is doing that. Probably because he's confident in AMD but not confident in the economy/market. Problem with TLT is that he should have just used TMF if it's just for insurance.
You might want to think about what the deficit could do to TLT. It’s not super likely that bond vigilantes will strike in the next couple years, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
This is the weirdest shit. The bet is expecting gpu prices will continue to climb to insane levels, but then expecting the economy to slow by holding TLT.
TLT is not a hedge against your AMD calls. Economists say the tariffs will spike inflation. Early August was the tariff deadline. Cash out in late 2025 if you do end up in a large profit somehow. God speed.
I don’t understand why you’re hedging with TLT? Puts expiring end of 2027 far above $0 strike have very cheap premiums for AMD. TLT and AMD not necessarily inverse related, but you point that out. Just curious.
inflation is your worst case - hurting TLT and AMD - good luck though, its a sound play
The chance of TLT going down on a rate cut is quite real, though. It has happened recently, IIRC. The Treasury is not auctioning much volume on the long end. Either because they just don't like the rate (the better case for your thesis) or because there's not enough demand and they don't want to let that ugly cat out of the bag, yet (the worse case for your thesis).
Bro you should hedge with puts, idk about TLT
You should learn about « duration » before « hedging » with TLT. TLT has a duration of 15.6 years. So for it to go up 50%, the fed would need to lower rates by more than 320 bps (3.20%) For a 100% gain, they would have to lower rates by 6.40%. Meaning the US would have negative yields. TLDR: OP’s smoking hopium
I’m doing the exact same strategy but with holding VTI instead of SGOV/TLT. Care to share what ticker for naked puts are you selling?
The TLT position should help once the war with China starts.
>Best Case: >TLT gains 50% to 100% from rate cuts on 66% of my portfolio If you had timed it perfectly in late 2018, when it seemed rates were going to rise, and then gotten your exit in July 2020 you’d have made ~50%. So basically you need to time your trade on two major events. “Best case” is probably too optimistic here. >Base Case: >AMD calls go to $0 if NVDA outcompetes AMD like in past AI failures such as MI300 >TLT rises as rates come down, which recovers the call premiums and results in break even in about 2.5 years Yeah, this is very close to the same as the best case in terms of what you need from TLT. You still need a ~47% increase in order to break even. >Worst Case: >AMD calls go to $0 >TLT drops because inflation spikes, resulting in a 30% loss there as well. This is unlikely in my opinion but possible. What sort of things could spike inflation again? Things like, I don’t know, another round of massive deficit spending? Or maybe inflation will rise if we deport a ton of the low cost labor that has been brought in to artificially cap wages across a wide band of industries. Or maybe the government imposes some huge new tax on the importation of goods from a handful of the largest suppliers of said goods. But those things wouldn’t happen, right? At least not all at once. This one should have been your base case. Inflation is already embedded across most consumer goods and it’s not coming down. The best weapon against inflation is a drop in energy prices since they are the major input cost for basically every non-service business on the planet. WTI is already pretty cheap here. HH nat gas is $2.96. When I left that business *11 years ago* it was…about $2.85. It’s not getting much cheaper from here. There is no obvious naturally deflationary forces that will arrest what was started in 2020. Betting against persistent inflation while simultaneously believing that the UST will become **more** attractive after racking another few trillion dollars into the deficit is, uh, bold. An actual hedge would have been calls on NVDA plus a basket of all the smaller competitors to AMD. That way if your theory of their growth trajectory is wrong you will capture some of the upside from anyone else who gets their market share (which let’s be honest, that means NVDA right now). However if your theory is correct then you still might not get completely wrecked on that basket since you could get a rising tide effect that pushes the whole space up before investors start to separate out the winners from the losers.
So much hate for this trade is going to manifest monies. TLT is bottomed out. I like it here.
AMD at $360? er... GPU might be interesting but you do realize the x86 market is seriously challenged right... RIGHT?! AMD is at 41 FWD PE. Maybe by 2027 will be at 23 PE. So best-case, if anything lines up and they execute better than EVER, they might... maybe get to $340. That assumes the market doesn't go tits up into a recession - which it likely will. If it does, sure the fed will drop interest rates. Maybe 1-2% points. That's going to be 15-30% increase in TLT value. Meanwhile you're $640k AMD call goes poof, and you make maybe 300k on your 1M TLT. I admire your braverly but you're math seems seriously off.
Was about to say the same, plus the TLT lmao, wtf in this sub follows bonds :)))
AMD is advanced money destroyer for a reason. You will learn it the hard way. Lol, TLT for hedge - what are you smoking?
Yeah I think calling TLT a hedge to AMD leap calls is actually possibly the dumbest thing ever said on this sub before. …and for that reason, it may be just retarded enough to work
bruh that TLT gun print
I have exactly the same thesis, but bought shares with about 130% of my portfolio. Worked out so far. Will post on WSB if it turns into a generational winner. There's clearly a ton of institutional money agreeing with you. Hopefully they can win some serious market share in 2026. I still don't understand the TLT hedge, even after you've explained it. Why not something like QQQ?
In a Stagflation scenario growth drops inflation increases. TLT goes down due to inflation and AMD goes down due to reduced economic growth. Maybe wait it out and buy the drip on AMD ans TLT both.
https://preview.redd.it/f21ole7f3whf1.jpeg?width=764&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=977f2d6a97233b7b996a1ea45b8788eb0b5ac88f ME READING AMD & TLT IN SAME SENTENCE
I think you should cash out some of your TLT and spread it around into a proper hedge that actually inverses the market and maybe an actual hedge on AMD. You'd cap your gains some your talking about different sources of both unsystematic risk that can possibly occur together. It's your money and it's not a bad setup. Hedging securities with bonds is definitely not unheard of, just thinking you could fine tune this a little. Cool trade tho bro I hope you kill it! I think you're spot on with your analysis of the setup.
Why not buy an mREIT? TLT is dumb.
im curious about the reasoning for TLT? do you think that a crash implies yields will drop?
TLT isnt even cash if trump does something like kick jpow out rates will probably go up with the newfound uncertainty and he will lose… cash doesnt have duration risk.
shoulds done EDV instead of TLT.
I'm not sure a bet on TLT gaining 50-100% based Fed cutting rate is a wise move. See what happened to 10yr rate (which TLT loosely tracks) during the stagflation of the 1960-1970s. As to AMD, as a fellow AMD holder, I hope you're right with your thesis. But as someone who actually handled MI350X, it's going to be an uphill battle for AMD. They WILL be the 2nd source supplier to the hyperscalers but the question remains how much of the TAM will they get and how far they'll be from the 3rd source (internally developed ASIC like GOOG's TPU). Good luck, hell of conviction bet.
The $360 call is also insane. That’s not hitting. I was eagerly swiping to look at what the hedge was and when I saw TLT… WTF?!?!?!?
I know I have the TLT for a reason lmao
Jan 2027 TLT $100c trust me I’m a gambler
Yes , see i did the same thing with $TLT ATM , my shiii got crushed trading sideways & i also did equal contracts but the money was off cause of capital but now i know & i always size light cause nothing is 100%
TLT once again rejecting going past 88.3
Yeah, we’ve had 2 bad-ish PCE reports lately and yet the QQQ/TLT pair continues to not trade as it did when inflation worries were front and center in parts of 2021-all of 2022, the reality is, is that is probably going to need to work well again before you get a longer term disaster involving tech. It’s probably more likely that you either get an “it’s over” AI moment to have fun with or “hot stuff” type tech turns problematic again (this I think more likely).
I'm a little dubious that it'll be as simple as that. This obviously isn't exactly like 2022, but you had tech getting touched up the most on inflation worries/treasury rates up going into it and while this year isn't as strong as last year, the same rules are still applying. I think what's more likely to occur is that you get your seasonal dip and then you'll have to watch after the recovery late in the year to see if the TLT/QQQ correlation pair is returning to behaving more like the way it did when inflation was front and center. I still think the fate of this year is sealed btw. It won't be a +20% year for SPX, but will be positive.
TLT over here green on the day after that bond auction. Depression confirmed, still calls though.
If we got no job revisions TLT would have made a new low
1:30 dumpfest? It's kind of funny the last time I saw a horrific auction for whatever reason TLT stayed pretty stable until 1:30 and then it just started puking
TLT please don't give me hope.
Except you know the chair himself expects a rate cut before years end. Hence why the betting odds are that skewed. It ain't gonna be anywhere what Trump wants or what any of the people who thought buying TLT calls were the ticket to retirement want but there will be a miniscule cut or two before January.
Bonds aren’t an attractive investment right now because the dollar is weakening. Who wants to buy bonds backed by a depreciating asset? TLT has been in the gutter and shows no support right now. IEF has been trading sideways for 3 years, even the IEI is below 2022 levels… if anything risk is on… all these ipos, ETH treasury companies, and even IWM is up 20% since April.
I would say it kinda doesn’t really matter for much of the market. But certain sectors, those that are dependent on long term financing (home builders, etc) will be in rough shape. Puts on them. Calls on everything else. There’s a 30 year bond auction tomorrow and that will probably tell us what direction TLT goes. Based on today I’d say down
I tune out the gambling insanity. $TLT and gold ($PHYS or $GLD) and chill. Interest rates are moving lower, and gold is a hedge in case Trump decides to turn on the money printing bazooka faster than I expect. I was too early on US interest rate cuts in April; but I have still outperformed the S&P 500 YTD due to gold's price appreciation w/o having to guess when to short this current AI greater fool theory bubble.