TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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$14k yolo on $TLT May/June calls (I know nothing about bonds)
Senate Banking committee to vote on Warsh this coming Wednesday, Bloomberg
I analyzed 584 Fed Chair speech events. Here is what it means for the SPY.
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
We backtested 80+ tactical allocation strategies over 30 years, here's what actually holds up
Sec. of State Marco Rubio heading to Israel March 2-3 to talk Iran, Lebanon, Gaza peace plan – State Dept just announced.
US orders non-essential embassy staff to leave Israel ASAP as Iran war risks spike.
Has anyone noticed how high IBKR's theta calculations are?
Pre-Market Alert: PPI comes in HOT (+0.5% / +3.3% YoY). The "Inflation Reboot" trade.
Pre-Market Prep: "AI Anxiety" hits Software, PPI Inflation & Big Oil Earnings tomorrow.
Made some money off a spy put at ope-n, now swinging TLT calls til tmr
taking advantage of interest and slb rates with deep itm put options on tlt/tmv
I'll just leave this here for $TLT
$TLT - SHORT INTEREST AT RECORD HIGHS
The "Silent Default" Algo. Why the $40T debt is a feature, not a bug (and how we mimic 1945).
The "Silent Default" is here. Why the $40T Debt doesn't matter and SPY is going to the moon.
Penny stock trading: a multi-level-player game that you can win if you are prepared
Markets are ignoring an impending bank crisis, is TLT the next big play?
Four ETFs that thrive on multiple interest rate cuts and a probable strong Q4.
ETFs that benefit from the likely multiple interest rate cuts and a probable strong Q4.
Treasury bonds are gaining popularity as today is likely the start of the first interest rate cut this year.
Bubble worries have sparked my interest in a particular bond ETF
After-Hours Gainers and Losers for Today (September 15, 2025) 📈 📉
Why this algo doesn’t just YOLO one stock.
After-Hours Gainers and Losers for Today (September 12, 2025) 📈 📉
Betting on TLT 20 years and REIT seems a good bet with probable rate cut soon
What is your strategy for the Bond ETFs in light of the probable upcoming rate cut?
What is your plan for the Bond ETFs with the upcoming probable rate cut?
What is your plan for the Bond ETFs with the upcoming probable rate cut?
$600,000 $AMD call option trade + $1.2m hedge
$AMD leaps $TLT Spread trade $1.8M portfolio
Trump lashed out at Powell again, but this time he might not be wrong? $SPY $QQQ $TLT
How I crushed the SnP500 by 200% the past 3 years, shares only
Lowering interest rates will blow-up the economy
Long term Versus Short term is the wrong view point
I've read the book and watched the movie...but I'm still not sure what to do here...
The USD must weaken and three other convictions I have. How would you invest under these assumptions? It's a sincere question and despite my best efforts I'm still 49% moron.
how high can treasuries go before it causes the stock market to crash?
Vertical Put Credit spreads on GLD, SPY, and TLT with small account??
My analysis shows that Market dynamics favour more pressure again today, possibly spilling into Monday, so be patient. However, still supportive into June OPEX it seems, so out of this we will get a nice Buy the Dip opportunity
A FULL TIME TRADER'S THOUGHTS ON THE MARKET 27/05 - AFTER TRUMP ROLLS BACK EU TARIFFS. What does the market look like in terms of dynamics? What are the expectations? What Am I doing? 👇👇
22/05 - The market pulls back as expected. Bond auction was the catalyst but the path as already laid. Here I break down a few more important datapoints and expectations going forward through the rest of the week
I'm a full time trader and these are all my market thoughts 21/05 - VIX expiration - what is the effect going to be? Possible unclench coming. A look at the skew data for indices, and a look at why the oil option market is telling us that the Israel Iran news is a nothingburger.
New to investing – want to buy ETFs long-term without overthinking it. Any advice?
I'm a full time trader and these are all my market thoughts 20/05 - Market still grinding higher, Tax receipts inform our view on current economic conditions, and a look at VIX dynamics. Portfolio management recommendations 👇
Market Analysis 12/05. China trade is what everyone's talking about but please also follow Trump in the Middle East, since this is a key market narrative that most overlook. Many signals including VVIX suggest supportive price action into May OPEX, and likely into June also.
The dots still aren't connecting right now for us to have sustainable upside. Yesterday's action was far from bullish IMO. And that's true across multiple data points. Here's why.
I've only traded options twice, Covid(-$16K) and now on track do it again
Is Zroz/Tlt the best trade of the decade?
Yes, another $VIX post - $11M+ between the C25 and C40 July 16. More pain ahead probably.
33,000 open contracts on a bond ETF that’s supposed to be safe...
China selling off US treasuries = calls on treasuries?
Let my dead TLT calls be a warning to you all
too afraid to gamble any real money, but i'm up for the first time
+18k. Almost gave up on the trade at noon.
After lurking for awhile I am finally joining the market
Mentions
I've made the most on TLT puts this year. Can't wait for another leg
Most of the time, TLT sucks to watch during the day.
I’m just buying TLT until this market cools off a little . Sold all my Hormel for now
Congratulations to everyone not bag holding. (I am all tied up on hoping TLT doesn't shit the bed by 7/17, selling covered puts) **tl;dr** I miss being liquid.
Agreed, the only potential weak point is federal debt and the dollar purchasing power, i.e. as long as bonds have buyers and inflation remain in check this market will go up. I am long with an asymmetric hedge, small lot of TLT puts that would deliver multipliers if markets break down.
TLT mooning. We are cooked
Brent about break lows, TLT ripping. You thought this rally was absurd? Wait until we get rid of headwids
TLT is ripping……we might be cooked
Thinking of some TLT puts. Seems like it likes to pump in pre-market and dump during market hours.
Only thing I held overnight was TLT calls. They're now ITM. Here's to hoping the green candles continue.
I bought TLT today and out preformed NVDA 😂
Did you educate yourself about options trading in the process, or did you just yolo your life savings? My trading plan: keep a majority of my portfolio in VOO, USO, GLD and TLT. Earns dividends, grows over time. Not going to lose 60% of its value in any given day barring the apocalypse. I’m agnostic to the fundamentals on most of the options I trade. I don’t care about P/E ratio or FDA approvals for the most part because the vast majority of my options plays are high-probability, <7DTE credit spreads or condors (depending on the trend of the market/stock). I pick a short strike that is 80-85 delta and a long strike 5-10 lower. No one position risks more than 2% of my account. If the value of the spread doubles or the underlying crosses the short strike, I cut my losses and close. I close winners at 75-80% max profit. On the occasions where I want to make a directions play, I buy an 85 delta plus itm call or put with a few months to expirations. I set an alarm for if the underlying crosses a support or resistance level and stop my losses. I try to keep net beta-weighted delta close to zero. With credit spreads, I don’t need to be correct on direction, I just need to not be very wrong. I can make money in bull or bear markets.
XLP/XLF/ETHA/TLT. Boring ass shit for my boring ass portfolio.
yeah i saw that too, huge call buys on TLT. looks like someone is betting on rates going down and bonds going up. wondering if its a hedge fund or some big investor making a play. definitely keeps an eye on it to see if it pans out
TLT would drop if rates go up. TLT is as if you owned bonds. If bond yields go up, your old bonds with lower yields are worth less, ergo TLT down. If bond yields drop, and you have a bunch of bonds fielding higher, then the value of those bonds is now higher, ergo TLT up.
Yeah, that definitely looks like someone making a pretty aggressive long-duration rates bet or at least positioning for a major shift in the rate environment over the next couple years. Could be: * expecting cuts/recession * slowing growth/disinflation * flight-to-safety positioning * or even just a hedge against equity risk The size is what makes it interesting though. LEAPS that far out usually feel more macro-view driven than short-term speculation. Doesn’t necessarily mean they’re “right,” but it’s hard to ignore that kind of flow in TLT.
TLT and drill I guess. 🤷♂️
The problem is you've got a lot of people that view the chart as COVID being somehow the norm which completely flies in the face of reality. You've got a guy in here saying it's never been this low, which is true but it's also not a meme stock and this is traditionally pretty much the channel it's always been in since inception. And unlike at the tail end of 2022/beginning of 2023 when you could reasonably make good assumptions for why rates would be cut there's not even really that to work with now since we decided to have a Mexican standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Basically I wouldn't put any faith into the TLT chart the fund has only existed since 2002 and there hasn't been a prolonged period of high inflation for all of that. I'm talking years of over 5% like the 70s. I'd have a feeling if it was around then the stock price would be far lower.
Damn I wonder if a bunch of OtM TLT calls are worth the protection in event of a bad downside correction I assume bonds would rally if shit hits fan
Yeah I normally had quite a small TLT allocation in my long term portfolio - 5%. I sold it all at the start of the Iran war anticipating (as many people did) oil prices increasing + inflation. Now thinking of reallocating - I have that amount in cash for now.
Rates may hold but unlikely to go up, TLT at 80 is as low as it gets, and if we end up in a recession next year once bubble pops and all the Iran war supply shock works itself out, rates may indeed come down and TLT is back at 100
Why are yields dropping so fast? TLT gonna be running hard
Just stick that shit into bonds paying 4% (TLT it 4.6% TBIL is 3.6%) use the monthly interest to make the monthly payments and reinvest the excess back into the bonds. Seems fool proof honestly that extra 5k per years will start to compound nicely.
Definitely take it 100% if you can afford the payments out of pocket TLT gives good yield SGOV is like at 4.5% and shit like coke n Pfizer is like that 10%
I'm sitting on TLT, pfe, clx, rtx, and smaller positions in several etfs right now. Earlier this year I had a large hog position. I made money on that and then sold. I'm not a typical investor though and what I do is not normal. Usually I'm buying reasonable companies with a dividend and selling calls. I frequently buy dips. My sold calls are quite often ATM or ITM initially and occasionally I roll out and up when the stock price decline ends. Overall it works, but the volatility isn't something most people would be comfortable with. Out my list I think pfe and clx are solid positions more than rtx. I think everyone should buy at least some TLT when it's sitting at this high of a yield. If the economy rolls over it will do fine while a lot of other stuff suffers. If inflation takes off it might do poorly for a bit, but in the end I think it will do fine as inflation typically self corrects by crushing the economy equities depends on.
This means inflation is down right, long TLT boyos
Jacked to the tits on USO puts and TLT calls. Fuck the bears
Will be riding a motorcycle tomorrow afternoon before a 3-day weekend through rush hour traffic, if I don’t make it back I bequeath to wsb my cat, dirty laundry and TLT bags.
Is it normal for SPY and TLT charts to look exactly the same for the day?
You can buy 3% OTM options a month out on SPY, TLT, ACWI, EWZ, ILF, EWJ if you want a sure thing. Global small caps should rip as well
Got my trading capital locked up in ETHA and TLT. Point at me and laugh.
TLT is staging a big reversal, cause oil is about to drop a lot
Looks at chart, wonder when the last time TLT was at 83 or lower. Oh.
TLT at 83. This is where banks fail.
Loaded up on TLT and will enter back into VT when it touches the 200 week SMA.
TLT is as good of a buy as it can be, but your time horizon seems sus. My recent TLT purchase feels like a hedge for my Permian basin trade. If we leave Hormuz, the fed will discuss rate cuts after looking at the data and therefore after Permian basin asset values fall? But, that’s not what is going on now.
Economy went from “fire Jerome Powell bc he won’t cut rates” to TLT all time lows in 6 months. Chaos right? Nope, equities still at all time highs. This shit is going to be biblical.
TLT is $0.50 away from the all-time lows in 2023.
Markets are sensitive for the prices and economy. U.S. gas prices have surged by roughly **50%** since the U.S. military conflict with Iran began in late February. There is no sign of prices coming down for US gas. Knowing all these, market pulled to ATH after ATH and now started with volatility. Review similar Bond yield hike happened before covid in 2020 (TMF spiked high) and before a crash in 2025 (Jan 15th around when I bought TLT and TMF -spiked 27%) [https://imgur.com/yHy0cmR](https://imgur.com/yHy0cmR)
I can just sit on TLT for the next 5 years till I buy PLTR for 96% off 🤔
too much risk on the long end where the yield is finally above 5% like TLT or VCLT...I actually would like bonds if they didn't yield single digits. I'm just thinking....at what yield would I prefer to own bond etfs over a something like voo or vt? Cause at some point, the problem of how do you intelligently spend the money comes into focus....like we all know the 4% rule, but that seems....unsatisfying. If you just had a bond fund that spit out 10% paid monthly with low volatility, that would be nice.
I know of SGOV for short term but TLT dropped today for some reason lol
Tomorrow the NVDA bubble pops and the entire software sector goes with it. Breakers will be activated and money will rotate so fast into TLT that it will be glorious...Praise bears and fuck you bulls.
If you brought $100 of TLT in 2002 you'd have $100 today, since you'd blow all the yields in your port.
But it is already over 5% risk free? And there was no huge pullback. I loaded up on TLT and now already down 2% yet no huge market correction.
TLT up 1.5% all time.
If you really look at basic concept of investing,buy low and sell high, the bond is worth buying now. Last 7-10 days before, I was telling market can not sustain ATH high and bound to go down, many did not believe that, but I sold all my stocks and moved to cash only at that time. Now, Bonds are at low price, I started buying TLT and even TMF as swing trade (just the same way I did in 2025 Jan-Mar timeframe). Positioning Gold and Silver is fine, but that may not give better returns than TMF. Real estate is worst as mortgage rates (by product of 10 year bond Yield) are high and cripples economy soon. The high yield can not sustain any more. The US20Y is 5.19% and the max it can reach 5.25%, that makes the economical crash soon. IMHO, the so called Guru's ideas look wrong.
Keep TLT calls on watch for when “free markets” suddenly need assistance again. Yield curve control coming soon to theaters near you 😎
I am 81% in TLT. I'm just going to have to call on Jesus to save me and I am an atheist FML
Went in heavy on TLT calls for July. This has got to be the bottom, imo
Bond bros, this really should be the bottom for TLT right now?
Do yourself a favor: type TLT in your app.
If i wasnt poor id put all my cash in TLT for a while
TLT getting close to the low from 2023. Kinda wild
TLT at its lowest point since it was listed in 2002. Not great 🥭
TLT is going to make private credit crisis worse
TLT sitting on long term support+ 🌮 + Nvidia earnings should be enough to push the market back up
TLT approaching 24 yr lows, surely this is a great time to buy 🤓🌚
That TLT candle was something.
TLT has good support here though. This is where it bounces?
Trunqs 13F next quarter gonna have TLT puts isn’t it
Just want to let ya'll know that TLT has 1dte LMAO 🤌
Saw TLT randomly today and remembered the guy with half a mil in TLT leaps from a few months ago. Wonder how he's doing
US Treasuries wouldn't be a bad BTD buy here for someone that didn't already have a position in $TLT. I bought $GLD instead as I think we are near a temp peak in US 10 yr interest rates. Long term I don't want to hold US Treasuries, but short term as a trade, I think US interest rates move closer to 4% than 5%.
Just bought another 300 shares of TLT. I am now more than 100% allocation in this stock. FML
Oh yeah, I’m buying tf out of TLT 🥹
TLT is so fucked rn
Market will only recover when TLT recovers. The bond market is going "yippy".
There will not be rate cut or increase this is energy shock. Monetary changes will not have impact. As long as we don't restart this war, TLT will bounce.
Where is the TLT calls guy? TLT has been dead-money for last 3 years
daaamn.. TLT almost at 2 year low... correction, at 2 year low
If you didn’t buy poots on TLT, you weren’t paying attention. Although this is still a fine entry imo nfa.
Or TLT printing over 5% yield
One covered call on NWL. Shuffling money between accounts. And clenching. I'm planning to cut out SGOV, TLT and other bond ETFs ETFs soon (except for some option plays) and just start building a gradual bond ladder. I also see RNMBY under 300 again. I'm going to see if the knife stops falling and reload some shares.
But what if the stonk market crashes! Gasp! 😱 /s Ok you little shit…here’s the everything bagel; 10% each…( GLD IBIT TLT USFR VTI VXUS SSO SPYI ANGL PDBC)
I’m over here thinking about that guy that went all in June TLT calls. He is absolutely getting cooked alive
Everyone arguing "bonds vs stocks" is skipping the only question that matters: why is the long end moving? - Real rate up → long-duration equities bleed - Inflation expectations up → real assets win, nominal bonds lose - Term premium up (the "debt spiral" read) → market demands more to hold 30y paper It's mostly the last two right now — not a growth story. Which is why "debt spiral, just buy equities" is too clean: the same discount-rate move repricing the 30-year also crushes the multiple on the long-duration tech holding up the index. You don't get to keep 25% equity returns and a 5% risk-free leg — something gives. (The TLT/VGLT duration warning above isn't hypothetical — it's mechanical.)
Oh that’s funny! I had a TLT call credit spread that printed and I had no idea this was happening. Explains it.
Show us your $TLT calls, then $WFC.
Let’s go Bflo! You got BNO on my watchlist and it’s one of my profitable symbols too. I happened to also find CVNA chart with that beautiful bearish top, retrace, and rejection pattern. Made a tidy profit buying ATM put spreads and some OTM puts. May have sold out a little too early (today at ~68) it appears but I’m definitely looking to reenter. It appears oversold technically, but I also firmly believe the equity is very overvalued. I’m already so deep in puts on overvalued growth and TLT its performance is probably very correlated to my portfolio anyways.
Serious note: I totally understand why long duration bonds are hated in the current market due to all the bullshit/retarded fiscal spending, but I really do believe that even if inflation does creep up, the demand destruction it'll cause will force the Fed's hand to cut rates due to the economy imploding. I see TLT benefiting hugely in this scenario.
the gayest part about being a bear is eventually due to currency debasement, I need to re-enter real assets. Even if I think the world is ending, along the way, asset prices will skyrocket into infinity as the currency goes to zero due to the government trying in vain to prop up economic collapse. My anxiety is...TLT with a yield over 5%? hhmmm...tempting. And if we actually get a little too tight for too long and we bust....it'll rip. Stocks are always a good long term play. Gold is shiny and can't get hacked when quantum computers mounted on the back of AI take over the world. sigh.
As a holder of TLT, I'm crying right now.
Careful with duration risk on long bond ETFs, a 1% increase in yield can be >10% principle investment loss. VGLT, TLT
I personally really don't mind. The lion's share of my portfolio is in VT that I bought back in 2022 towards the tail end of the downtrend and that's my core long term position. I honestly got into TLT as a hedge. I understand duration risk is a thing, but I only got like 10% of my port in TLT.
Tell me why I shouldn’t yolo all in TLT