TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
TLT. It tracks the 20-year bond price and pays out a dividend.
I usually watch $VIX, bonds, DXY, and sector flow. If VIX is rising, yields are falling (TLT up), and defensives like XLU/XLP are outperforming, it’s usually a sign of a risk-off tone. Around June 28–30, we had exactly that — made me more confident leaning bearish on TSLA. If you want to know more, you can chat with me.
Congress working overtime to find the best way to screw the poors. I wish they’d finish so my TLT puts print
If I am selling covered calls thats a different risk strategy than the 2%. My risk in a covered call situation is if the underlying goes to 0. Thus, there is very few companies I am willing yo own long term. I mainly look at ETF’s like Spy, Ibit, TLT, GLD, etc
I have two brokerage accounts. One mostly for investing long term and another that’s dedicated to short to medium term savings. In the latter I hold enough cash for my emergency fund and also buy funds in “risk parity” way. I use a portfolio called the “Golden Butterfly” for this medium term savings. The idea is to own several different assets that are all positive (go up in value) but inversely correlated (go up and down at different times) so the value of the assets will be stable. It’s working pretty for me. So in addition to the cash , i buy these funds in the equal proportions and rebalance as i buy: GLDM (gold) 20% SHY (Short Term Treasury bonds) 20% TLT (Long Term Treasury bonds) 20% VOO (S&P 500 stock fund) 20% AVUV (Small cap value stock fund) 20% 20% x 5 = 100%
Spy up, gold up, VIX up, TLT up. Literally can buy anything and win
Buying TLT is like buying a penny stock and knowing it’s gonna go to 200+
If you’re selling TLT you’re actually dumb
TLT calls few days out he’s cutting rates
TLT about to moon once rate cuts start being priced in.
TLT mooning? 🤨 what do they know
I want to sell my TLT.... But also seems like rate cuts might be imminent
>Unfortunately you cannot short the bonds (atleast not us retail investors). You can short ETFs, though. TLT for long term, SGOV for short term.
Well when rates go down bonds go up. TLT calls? Only thing is foreign investors turning away from US debt?
Any US treasuries with >1 year duration, like 10 year treasuries, TLT etc.
I just wanted the TLT dividend Tuesday. Figured the bond market will drop with the garbage bill being passed through senate so I sold covered calls well ITM so it going down won't affect me.
Buying a TLT call should automatically send you to the sewer slide hotline
TLT C@95. About a 85% loss atm.
This is a really good summary. What are your thoughts on what the bond market is signalling here? I was shocked to see that the April lows saw higher rates. Thinking back, I suspect it was Asia telling Trump to go fuck himself with this tariff jibber jabber I ask because, if we see another correction (and I’m of the opinion that we will), “big money” will flock to the greenback, unless the world is really telling us that the US dollar is no longer the reserve currency and that you guys (I’m Canadian) are actually going to default. Long TLT and qqq puts?
I bought TLT and sold ITM calls that expired after the dividend. So I'm guaranteed to make like 600 bucks by Tuesday. My upside is basically capped but nothing wrong with 600 bucks
Not quite, the bond ETF is essentially DCA'ing the yield curve. Old bonda roll off as they mature and new bonda at current rates get added on. The net duration exposure can be measured by the "effective duration", this is important because you can buy 20+ yr bonds that have coupons in a fund like TLT, but your effective duration is like 16 years because money gradually gets paid out to the investor. On the flipside, if you bought a fund that buys 20-30yr STRIPS (zero coupon bonds), you get the full duration exposure of the bond maturity, like GOVZ/ZROZ have an effective duration of 27ish yrs, averaging out their 30 yr strips and 20yr and everything inbetween. The ETF closest to what youre looking for is IEF, at 7.05 yrs effective duration. However, as new yields drop, youll be buying new lower yield bonds in IEF, but the existing bonds on IEFs balance sheet will increase in value since they have higher yields. Its all a gradual meshing of old fund contents and new fund contents, thus the "DCA" analogy. Old bonda roll off, new bonda roll in.
because tariffs = inflation, and inflation = higher interest rates, and higher interest rates = lower TLT
TLT just got rugged lol
TLT be like: lemme just lay down here for a sec and rest my eyes
I'm hoping TLT, slowly accumulating on every dip.
I think I’ll sell put spreads on TLT today. I’m ready to get hurt again.
Wow TLT has been soaring this week. I sold my shit way too early at like 87.10
15%, earning 4.25% or so. 5% TLT, because who knows? 25% gold and silver because the world’s on fire. 55% equities, because the market doesn’t care that the world’s on fire.
Ok, so tard level 1 bets are options. What are people doing for tard level 2? I think they are going to devalue the fuck out of the dollar over the next year. So...I'm thinking REITs should do well. Gold of course. Euro funds. TMF/TLT.
Can’t you just do something with TLT
TLT puts is the way
I really really hope that TLT bag holders get rewarded. They are doing us all a big service. Haha.
You down with TLT? Yeah you know me!
“So if stuff goes downhill you may be able to lose money on bonds?” Absolutely. When interest rates start going up, the value (sale price) of existing bonds will drop dramatically. Look up the 10 year charts of bond ETFs like TLT, BND, etc and a host of other bond fund ETFs (Google can show a list). ALL of them will show a dramatic fall in 2022 and 2023 when interest rates started going up steadily. Retirees with bond fund portfolios watched helplessly as their values kept going down quarter after quarter. It is one thing to say bonds will give a “steady” income. Another, when bond values fall with rising interest rates. If you hold long term bonds, you will have to sell at a loss. Or, keep holding the low interest bonds to maturity when everyone else is buying high rate bonds. The harsh reality strikes only when you actually are in the game. This fact is so obvious but so easy to see away from. Very real nevertheless.
Long TLT. JPow coming under huge pressure, labor market weak, inflation trending down
SGOV is still preferable and less risky than the long end of the curve like TLT for example No duration risk Long term rates likely to rise imo bc of the credit risk as you said
TLT has legitimately had more interesting price action than SPY today. VIX might be down big but SPY price moving like VIX is 8.
I was eyeing down those 3dte TLT calls this morning and I did NOT take the trade. Regard.
Yes, according to today's price action for $TLT vs the $SPY. Ignore all the arguments here. Reddit users give comments or feedback based on how their portfolio's are positions and everyone here is long the Mag 7 stocks. US Bonds should outperform the S&P 500 over the next year.
Important with bond funds to look at reinvested dividends: https://totalrealreturns.com/n/TLT
TLT is up, I really do be trading with head trauma
Its really hard to say, because inflationary risk is the bond killer (thus the 2022 bond bear market). As rates got lower and lower through the 2010s and then post pandemic, wallstreet was desperate for higher yield fixed income products and loaded up on US government debt at longer maturities to beat the risk free rate. Lo and behold, fiscal policy from covid stimulus where we literally dropped money from helicopters into peoples laps plus supply shocks from the lockdown led to inflation, thus monetary policy tightened. Now, long bonds yielding much lower than the risk free rate had to be severely discounted since you could get a risk free 5.25-5.5% at peak rates in 2024. Without trumps tarrifs, bonds would be looking alot happier right now. The big beautiful bill is a huge looming risk to bonds, as inflation from bad fiscal policy would tarnish the trust in US debt, raising rates and lowering par value of bonds. If inflation doesnt come back, you get a really good deal with these rates. If debt hawks in the senate mediate the deficit, bonds look better. Its hard to say of stuff like TLT or GOVZ or ZROZ or EDV will be good in the near or mid or long term, but there is this spectre of recently being burned on long duration debt thats made walk street and the world less likely to hold super long bonds. That means lower demand and higher yields, but should that faith slowly come back, then there will be upward pressure on bond prices and yields would lower.
If Bowman’s serious, TLT and Gold could fly. IWM might follow with risk-on flows. But watch the next CPI, could still be a headfake rug.
Myopia is one of my many problems, so I appreciate your input. So are you saying that if I get TLT and hang on for 10 years it will likely be profitable overall due to the recessions during that time?
> ETF Replay says that TLT is down 3.8% over the past 12 months and down 11.5% in the past 36 months Of course; interest rates went up. I'd suggest reading up on bonds and the inverse relationship between yield and price, as well as interest rate sensitivity.
But I am missing something then. ETF Replay says that TLT is down 3.8% over the past 12 months and down 11.5% in the past 36 months. How is that profitable?
> silly to say TLT is unprofitable, or silly to fear the US government these days? Both. Bond yields are around the highest they've been in decades, TLT is available at a great price, and the world still has faith in US treasuries as the lowest-risk fixed-income investment.
Thanks - silly to say TLT is unprofitable, or silly to fear the US government these days?
> TLT and the like are too darn unprofitable, and to the extent they rely on the credibility of the US government, that does not sweeten the deal these days I think that's a silly take, tbh. But in any event, this is a good reference for asset class correlations: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-class-correlations
I think mid to long range TIPS are better than TLT. Maybe SCHP? Good to have inflation protection, because oil prices might cause inflation.
I hold TLT. I will continue to hold it just as a part of my bond portfolio by the issue with TLT is it’s not interest rate sensitive. It’s attempting to predictive long run rates so bond vigilantes seeing events that can store inflation tend to sell the long end of the curve or even short it which drives yields up and related will hurt TLT price. I own it more for the ongoing dividends and the idea that eventually inflation will tame. I wouldn’t buy it for a short term gain. I have had it for about 2 years now.
No, with the uncertainty of how tariffs will effect inflation numbers in the next few months and the potential for an oil shock and energy crisis with the war in Iran, I would stay away from TLT for now.
I can list ten companies off the top of my head that are far better. TLT is never a long term hold.
TLT pays dividends so it wasn't that bad ytd to be honest
How can you not consider that the budget bill is already priced in. All the stable coin providers will be backing up their tokens with treasuries. Maga chair will cut rates. TLT will moon when we get closer to Powell leaving
Telecom stocks. I’m in Verizon. Should be a good week if 10 year yields start dipping. TLT as well.
It almost certainly will go higher!! The bond market (TLT) will dump tho!!
Very tough to say because you are asking if a tactical bet will pay off. Are we in a regime where interest rates can come down? Despite this regime being true or not true, what is the effect of market sentiment layered ok top of that? From there you might derive that it is only a matter of time before you are right with your bet. At that point you will have likely the opportunity cost of being long equities drained away from you or exposed yourself to unnecessary concentration risk. This is coming from someone with TLT exposure.
I mean sure but you do realize the war is going to make the debt worse. I predict huge sell off in TLT in Monday and huge rally for SPY!! The trend if your friend until the end!!
My TLT shares are going to hard carry next week
Full ported TLT leaps at open yesterday.
I am happy to keep scooping up some TLT. Seems like a good buying opportunity.
Immediate puts print Then TLT Puts keep printing while the market Vs almost as fast as inflation
Trump mistakenly thinks lowering the Fed Fund rate is going to lower bond yields. Those days appear be over (RIP my TLT). If Trump really wanted to lower bond yields, he would let his tax cuts for billionaires expire. The only way the US gets out of its debt spiral is by cutting costs AND raising taxes. Only doing one will not be enough. The spending cuts and tax increases also must be targeted to minimize the economic impact.
Folks are still piling in TLT for some reason.
Somehow limit sold my TLT puts exactly at the bottom, used up all my luck on a $150 play. Sad pepe.
Might sell TLT CCs Expect surprise rate cut soon
Thank you so much for this write up because I've been reading on yahoo news on how he is keeping up this lie charade that the unemployment rate is at 4.5% and the economy is relsialnt when me, my co-workers, and at least 10's of thousands of people on subreddits have been laid off for over a year and counting (and no one is hiring). We are feeling gas ligthed to believe that everything is fine when its not and we are not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel because the adminstation isn't doing jack sh\*\* about it. The question is when will this happen? approx? And as someone who is quite young and new to economic activity can you please further explain "Bond yields plummet (TLT rips) -Stocks rally on pricing in more rate cuts. -Financial conditions loosen Which undoes his entire inflation-fighting effort"
Jerome Powell absolutely knows the labor market is weakening under the surface, but he’s jawboning intentionally when he keeps saying “the labor market is strong” because he can’t admit to seeing the weakness yet if he wants to accomplish his goals of stamping out inflation for good. There is no way Powell can truthfully say the labor market is strong when: ⚠️ Quits rate - Lowest since 2020 (shows workers don’t feel confident to switch jobs) ⚠️ Job openings (JOLTS) - Down 30%+ from 2022 peak ⚠️ Temp employment - Leading recession signal; already rolling over ⚠️ Part-time employment - Declining, often a softening sign ⚠️ Initial + Continuing claims - Trending higher for months We know Powell tracks all these LEADING indicators, but he keeps focusing on Lagging indicators like job creation via non-farm payrolls and the headline unemployment rate as an excuse to keeps rates higher for longer. But the problem is when Jerome finally see’s degradation in these lagging indicators, the recession will already be underway and it will be too late. And that appears to be okay with him. The main reason why Powell can’t admit that the labor market is clearly cracking under the surface is because if he did, then… -Bond yields plummet (TLT rips) -Stocks rally on pricing in more rate cuts. -Financial conditions loosen Which undoes his entire inflation-fighting effort He is managing psychology, not just data. Admitting weakness too early and then having inflation re-accelerate (via tariffs, services, housing) would destroy his credibility. He’d rather look “late” than prematurely ease and risk a 1970s-style stagflation repeat. Powell is playing a high-stakes communication game. He knows the cracks are forming. He’s just not ready to say it out loud—yet. The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario: Premature Easing Powell’s #1 fear isn’t a shallow recession—it’s: 1. Easing too early → Financial conditions loosen 2. Inflation re-accelerates → Especially via core services, housing, tariffs 3. The Fed loses credibility → Then has to hike again (1970s Volcker trap) He would rather: -Be late -Let the economy contract -Cut swiftly once the damage is visible Powell is executing a deliberate strategy of delayed response, knowing that: The small chance that the labor doesn’t break → He wins, no need to cut. The most likely case that the labor does break → He cuts hard and fast, accepting the recession. It’s not that he believes a recession is avoidable. It’s that he’s accepting recession risk in exchange for inflation control.
I ASKED AI TO REFINE CORRECT AND SIMPLIFY MY EXPLANATION. You should ask it questions about market mechanics and economics. It hallucinates occasionally so double check it but at this point I trust it more than people on the internet. Here’s what it gave me: “Bonds are like IOUs from the government or companies. They borrow money from you and pay you interest (called a yield) until they pay you back. But if interest rates go up, new bonds pay more — so your old bond isn’t worth as much if you try to sell it early. That’s why bond prices fall when rates rise. Now, bond ETFs like BND or TLT don’t hold just one bond — they hold lots of them, and they’re traded on the stock market like regular stocks. Their price moves every day based on how valuable the bonds inside them are. So when rates fall, those old, higher-yielding bonds inside the ETF go up in value, and the ETF price goes up too — and vice versa. 🧠 Bottom line: bond ETFs move opposite to interest rates because they track the value of older bonds with fixed payouts.”
BEST DESCRIPTION!!!: Government borrows money from you by giving you an iou. They pay you a yield for doing this. A bonus for the loan. The yield is locked in till it expires. The price you pay plus a small premium is the par. You can sell the bond on the open market but if the yield for new bonds goes higher yours becomes less attractive and the par decreases. The yield is mostly based on the fed rate and the demand(people want to buy) for bonds. A bond etf like BND or TLT are funds that hold bonds and pay out an average of the yields minus the fee. The price of the bond etf is marked to market meaning it’s basically the par. If the fed lowers rates the existing bonds with higher rates will become more valuable on the market. So the bonds move opposite of the yields. That’s bonds in a nutshell.
Yeah we're heading towards low VIX, headline news market movements going forward...covered calls on TLT is where I'm thinking about moving my idle cash for the short term.
TLT dropping like a rock
Any chance my TLT calls DONT get raped today?
Damn TLT was 3 cents away from hitting my limit sell. SAD
Understand, lost is really lost, there is no revenge trading to get it back. Almost trading is not suitable. You should have stopped when you lost 10%. Remove margin. Do not use options. Do not follow anyone in youtube. Save this 200k at least and invest in SPYI (or my choice TLT). If there is 4%-5% drop in SPX, you can sell 5% of SPYI (Or TLT) and buy QQQ. Keep continuing forever until you learn everything about stockmarket, trading and investments. Never be greedy, it takes many years to get back your lost money.
ASTS, IEP, TLT, BLMN is doing some weird shit, but they have a lot of debt.
for once TLT is actually doing what it is supposed to do: moon when there is turmoil. My port is very grateful. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Fine with me, TLT is up 1%, they really have to get that long end down. Also hopeful the salt cap is much lower than 40K
I want out of the market, what stock do you recommened? TLT or something that is similar to that?
TLT: “Hey guys I’m actually feeling okay this market open after those poor retail sales numbers!” Retail: *GET THE HELL BACK DOWN LOSER*
TLT is like that ex that dumped you over text but still calls you randomly, not to see how your doing but to make sure you haven’t moved on yet.. *Wendy’s hat Pepe*
Better do it on TLT. Specially at these levels of TLT. Better yet do a covered strangle with 50% of the holding and 5% out on the put side and 5-6% out in the call side 3 months at a time.