TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
-28.57% Today
Reddit Posts
Investment thesis for trading week 10/26 - 10/30
Lost 268k in 0DTE options - I will never be able to recover from this financially
Investment thesis for trading week 10/19 - 10/23
$TLT - Worried about AI? Bonds are cool again
CPI Sets Up Potential for a Squeeze, ASML Reinforces the AI Bull Case
Investment thesis for trading week 10/13 - 10/16
Got assigned on KHC, NOK, HUN, TLT and converted to CC positions
For those investing in bond ETFs, what do you use besides SGOV?
It won't be oil that brings us to our knees...
This is why bond markets are important and you should worry about it.
30-Year Yield Hits 5.44% as Fed Hike Odds Surge Past 70%.
Fed Preview - What Options, Bonds and Positioning Are Telling Us
Gold at $4410, oil at $91, 30yr yield over 5%... anyone else think this is more noise than a real regime shift?
Gold at $4413, oil at $91, 30yr yield over 5%... anyone else think this is more noise than a real regime shift?
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Hit 4.81% (Highest Since Nov 2023)
TLT call credit spread — collecting premium because I can’t refi
Model for delta (strike) ranges, surprisingly hard to develop
I find $TLT very attractive at this stage with a strong squeeze driven by a falling stock market and AI doubts.
June CPI missed big but I'm not buying the full rally yet
Warsh's first FOMC is tomorrow and I have no clue what to do with my port
Bogle vs. Buffet vs. Dalio - Long-Term Investment Strategies Backtested over the last 20 Years
Bogle vs. Buffet vs. Dalio - Long-Term Investment Strategies Backtested over the last 20 Years
$14k yolo on $TLT May/June calls (I know nothing about bonds)
Senate Banking committee to vote on Warsh this coming Wednesday, Bloomberg
I analyzed 584 Fed Chair speech events. Here is what it means for the SPY.
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
We backtested 80+ tactical allocation strategies over 30 years, here's what actually holds up
Sec. of State Marco Rubio heading to Israel March 2-3 to talk Iran, Lebanon, Gaza peace plan – State Dept just announced.
US orders non-essential embassy staff to leave Israel ASAP as Iran war risks spike.
Has anyone noticed how high IBKR's theta calculations are?
Pre-Market Alert: PPI comes in HOT (+0.5% / +3.3% YoY). The "Inflation Reboot" trade.
Pre-Market Prep: "AI Anxiety" hits Software, PPI Inflation & Big Oil Earnings tomorrow.
Made some money off a spy put at ope-n, now swinging TLT calls til tmr
taking advantage of interest and slb rates with deep itm put options on tlt/tmv
I'll just leave this here for $TLT
$TLT - SHORT INTEREST AT RECORD HIGHS
The "Silent Default" Algo. Why the $40T debt is a feature, not a bug (and how we mimic 1945).
The "Silent Default" is here. Why the $40T Debt doesn't matter and SPY is going to the moon.
Penny stock trading: a multi-level-player game that you can win if you are prepared
Markets are ignoring an impending bank crisis, is TLT the next big play?
Four ETFs that thrive on multiple interest rate cuts and a probable strong Q4.
ETFs that benefit from the likely multiple interest rate cuts and a probable strong Q4.
Treasury bonds are gaining popularity as today is likely the start of the first interest rate cut this year.
Bubble worries have sparked my interest in a particular bond ETF
After-Hours Gainers and Losers for Today (September 15, 2025) 📈 📉
Why this algo doesn’t just YOLO one stock.
After-Hours Gainers and Losers for Today (September 12, 2025) 📈 📉
Betting on TLT 20 years and REIT seems a good bet with probable rate cut soon
What is your strategy for the Bond ETFs in light of the probable upcoming rate cut?
What is your plan for the Bond ETFs with the upcoming probable rate cut?
What is your plan for the Bond ETFs with the upcoming probable rate cut?
$600,000 $AMD call option trade + $1.2m hedge
$AMD leaps $TLT Spread trade $1.8M portfolio
Trump lashed out at Powell again, but this time he might not be wrong? $SPY $QQQ $TLT
How I crushed the SnP500 by 200% the past 3 years, shares only
Lowering interest rates will blow-up the economy
Long term Versus Short term is the wrong view point
I've read the book and watched the movie...but I'm still not sure what to do here...
The USD must weaken and three other convictions I have. How would you invest under these assumptions? It's a sincere question and despite my best efforts I'm still 49% moron.
how high can treasuries go before it causes the stock market to crash?
Mentions
This is my all-weather zero-stress allocation: 20% VTI 20% AVUV 20% TLT 20% GLDM 20% BOXX
Sorry about your mom. Sorry doesn't really come close to covering it in a situation like this, but I really do empathize with your situation. I lost my mom to brain cancer a few years ago. We tried to do a few bucket list items, but had to cancel most of it because she just wasn't able to do them. Life can be short and brutal and tragic. We do need to find ways to take care of ourselves in the midst of all the challenges and chaos that get thrown at us. To find some joy within it all. and even to get through all the mundane tasks of each day. In terms of finances and how to live: In the final analysis each one of us has to define that for ourselves. You get to decide how you want to do it, no matter what any person (or AI!) on the internet says. Choose what feels right to you. For me it came down to finding a balance between spending a bit more to make \*today\* enjoyable and to have things to look forward to in the near term (next few months/the next year) and still being responsible with respect to my long term financial security. But before I settled on that path I did spend a couple years "over spending" (after having gone through a phase similar to yours of being hyper-focused on saving). I definitely had some fun with it, but all of that spending really didn't "fix" how I felt about losing my mom or give me the kind of joy/meaning that I had hoped (and that I needed). I dialed things back a bit and found a kind of balance that worked for me. I spend $$$ on my family/kid, on travel, I don't worry about what I spend on groceries or the gym and a few other things like that. And I refocused on long term financial planning so that I didn't feel stressed or anxious about my long term future (should I be lucky enough to live that long!). You will have your own mix of things that are actually really worth it to you. Definitely give yourself some freedom to experiment and figure out what works for you. \---- Specific thoughts: Maybe don't stop saving entirely. If you've got a 401k plan where your employer matches, I would keep doing that. You don't have to max it out, but maybe 50-80% of max? If your employer doesn't match, try to max out your Roth IRA contribution. For now I would invest in very stable things: maybe even bonds (SGOV or TLT). Just as a way to protect your capital during a time in your life that is already challenging. It's hard enough to deal with all the things related to your mom, maybe it's a good time to dramatically decrease risk so that you don't see red every time you open your portfolio. Once you're feeling more stable you can start moving back into index funds and even individual stocks. and maybe it's worth giving some time to thinking about where you'd most benefit from spending more. and then try it and see how it goes. and to generally give yourself some room to be more flexible with your spending/saving plan. If something important comes up and you want to spend money on it, you can be flexible and say Yes to that even if it means adjusting your savings plan a bit. \---- Good luck with all of it! Life has seasons and some of them can be very hard. Hang in there and spring will come at some point..
I did the same but using TLT, my only concern is I won’t deploy on the dip
Next time we giga rally to ATH maybe add TLT and gold too.
Loaded my mom up on TLT when yields came down sharply. Annoyed i didn't buy the absolute TLT bottom.
Guys look at the valuations of DELL fucking computer, SANDISK, and many others. This was a generational bull run. If you actually sold and converted to cash or boomer stocks like T, TLT, etc - grats. If not, you still have time.
And now TLT is negative. Great.
Shit even TLT selling off. All money rotate into propping up TSLA I guess?
Bonds are going to be super-duper important. I think TLT is gonna see 08 levels of action soon
I really like that strategy I’ll be playing TLT like a bankruptcy play through into February 😂
Oh I'm going to be actively trading out my bonds, I don't think we stay anywhere under 6% for a while. Just sitting on TLT and adding only to that for now until markets get a more clear direction
Ugh. Looks like I'm gonna have to be just fine with my TLT gains then in perpetuity
SOXL looking at TLT as they pass by each other https://preview.redd.it/y02v76lhilyh1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6f12953142813f596354aa5b081119b0ae8d2503
SOXL and TLT same price :wow:
I thought I had another week! I locked my port into bonds and TLT, and I’d need to lose a bit of money doing that. Day trading is a hobby and pays my credit card bills on my wages, and if I fail I go homeless. Can’t make risky burry bets :(
i'm gonna buy TLT calls again tomorrow and maybe IWM calls but I haven't checked the price on those yet. not sexy but should be easy money
things arent that bad or people wouldnt be buying TLT still lol
My new gambling is getting hyped up that TLT goes up 2 cents a minute. 🚀
Everyone is going to get rich!... by full porting $TLT :kek:
TLT keeps giving me hope. Just break $82-$83 already and I can forgive google.
Hi, sorry I was banned from reddit for 3 days and could not respond. Yes I still hold TLT as a hedge against a possible downturn.
Bonds ded again. Warsh the grim reaper of TLT.
My TLT puts continue to print. It's honestly saving my port from this metals dump
Congrats to anyone who bought TLT shorts.
Any of ya'll playing TLT today?
Ask your bank to put you in VOO or VT. Don't let them put you in bonds. Can buy TLT and GLD in small amounts (maybe 10% each) since they are cheap enough right now to actually hedge a crash efficiently. But do sell all bonds in the next market crash if yields do in fact collapse.
Difficult spot imo for either here as the rally has a bit of room it could in theory go. I think it hits a wall in maybe 2% on the Nasdaq. But for today, I would buy puts into Warsh’s speech and dump them if I was up afterward as that has been the pattern. Now for bonds, I would have been all over TLT puts at $81.75. Think about the macro: even businesses can’t get money right now, so hedges and MMs are just moving money around. Do they seem like the type to stay in long bonds for years and years going into 7 years of a bear market of resistance? They’ll flee the second the rally reverses.
Well fuck my TLT calls and to the moon on FOMO spy calls at open. 🫡
Gold and TLT and even crypto are all down bigly from their highs. Lots of ways to sensibly diversify right now.
I’m just sitting fat in TLT waiting for some deals and getting paid to do nothing.
Just in time for the ai bubble pop. Hope some of it is in TLT and maybe gold.
TLT pumping like crazy every day is a healthy sign for my SOXL calls right?
Brutal year tbh. Had to dump it all in june and rotate into SaaS for the big bucks. Crypto and gold all ass. Another play was energy but had to predict the iran war for the easy gains, or play the TA perfectly (which surprisingly was pretty accurate for oil at least initially). I don't see a good deal right now except TLT assuming yields have indeed topped. Ai seems shakey. I think finding a good person to follow or discord can unironically work, but finding a good one is the hard part. I still have to find one. Outperforming VOO and chill is harder than ever. Even QQQ was ass outside of the april giga rally for the past entire year. Many of the mag 7 aren't even outperforming QQQ, and the one that is is apple which has the weakest growth of them all.
TLT with 60%, keep 40% cash and when the mods actually post the hotline, 40% VOO - drip all dividends into VOO not TLT
The top stocks change every few years. Just look at FAANG, netflix is already dead. Nvidia could be next. So yeah get a broad market etf. VOO is probably better because who knows if tech keeps outperforming (it likely will though). Or something like VT but VOO will likely outperform. Can top up with some TLT and gold since both are rather cheap right now.
Smart move would be to buy TLT/UTEN as US Treasuries are likely to rally.
Buying TLT puts before FOMC could be good, barring a surprise hike. Holding would be another credibility hit with the inflation numbers we just had
Your comments about falling yields caught my attention, particularly the possibility that they’re signaling broader economic weakness or concerns about AI demand. Given our exchange last week, do you still see TLT as an effective hedge? And are you reconsidering any of your positioning? Thanks for sharing your weekly updates. I enjoy seeing how you’re thinking about the market.
worth splitting 'bonds' up because they're very different risks. long treasuries (TLT) lost about 31% in 2022 including interest, worse than the S&P that year (-18%). short term treasuries move a lot less when rates change, so they're closer to what people mean by safe, but not a guaranteed floor either. what are you actually trying to protect against, a crash or inflation? the answer kinda changes which 'safe' you want
Absolutely. No idea what to buy now though. Some TLT and gold, some voo as always, but a large amount of cash.
Wheat and TLT are still cheap here. Don't buy collapsing ai stocks. Maybe software still has some juice left too (though many are crazy overbought now). Maybe a long apple short nvidia pair trade to protect against ai volatility.
It was crazy to see TLT go up 2% on the same day that GLD fell by 2%. Metals have come down to their pre-insanity spike levels from a year ago to almost where they were before.
Derisked to an extent in retirement accounts as I'm getting older and have about 90% of what I need already. In my non-qualified brokerage, I'm playing with bond funds a bit (TLT AND BND daytrading as intraday interest rate movements have been consistent), but mostly STIP, USFR, AND JAAA. Market indexes may continue to rise but I've had a year's worth of gains in last 3 months anyway. YMMV. Anyone shorting markets?
I just hope that the corn move is 10Y going back to 5.2%+ and I make a ton on TLT puts.
Still forming for sure but the setup this close to month end is worth watching. I've learned the hard way not to dismiss a pattern just because the candle hasn't closed, sometimes the warning signs are already there. That NDX monthly chart has been throwing some wild signals lately and the semis testing the 200 day lines up with what a lot of technicians have been tracking. The TLT recovery is the part I'm most curious about because a 6% bounce in a few weeks isn't nothing. If bonds are signaling recession fears instead of just a relief rally, that changes the whole thesis for equities. Your point about the candle not being final is fair though, seen plenty of last day reversals that made the pattern disappear.
Bonds, TLT, consumer facing with their own supply run and cash reserves.
I filtered in a little at 5.1, just a HYSA with backing there. Rest is waiting in TLT/cash now.
Bond funds operate differently than just holding bonds to expiry though, and yeah I agree with you, I don't see any reason for average people to buy and hold $TLT for long periods. I can see the argue for things like $SGOV as ways to park cash so lose *less* money to inflation while you wait for a buying opportunity.
But you're taking on so much risk. Juice isn't worth the squeeze. Maybe I could see a justification for TLT calls
Good morning to everyone except TLT
Smart plays, did a quick TLT trade last week.
I sold my TLT calls yesterday and bought SLV calls thinking it’d bounce It’s down like 8% in 24 hours in a straight line lol. Like, quite literally, there has not been an uptick on any time frame Go me 🎉
Lol me too today was my best day of the month. The only thing better than TLT is TMF.
$SGOV, it sits around generating 3.75% returns on short term government bonds. It has literally moved 0.6% in 5 years, presumably but accident. Honorable mention $TLT. 20 year treasuries should be boring AF, but the idiots in charge have somehow made the most boring financial vehicle of all time into a casino.
Fat move on TLT today. I have survivors guilt
Am I insane for thinking TLT short looks good at this level
ZROZ works too, should be like 1.5x TLT in effect.
Turns out I wasn't retarded for buying TLT at $78 lol
Turns out TLT was the generational buy.
TLT actually did something for me once. Decent day.
U/YTLupo you were warned once Lupo. The money goes to TLT. Next time, they’ll be no next time
Yesterday was the wrong day to sell my TLT
Weird being green..due to TLT and boomer stocks like brk.
Lmao TLT is pumping like there’s no tomorrow
TLT +2% in one day is a sign of the end times.
Mom just told me to buy bonds "because interest rate going up so bond is up, right?" I don't even know how to inverse trade my mom with that mis-info so i guess i'll let go off my $TLT calls now. Bye bye Bessent.
Yeah, my TLT position is actually in the green. Feels weird.
if you want to see a V just look at TLT's monthly chart cause that is likely the only one you'll be able to see today
$TLT is my top performing equity today lol fml
TLT mooning. Nature is healing.
Well...at least my TLT calls are printing. :(
Only V's today are SPYD/RSP and TLT.
Did some company shit the bed on earnings? Why is it so red all the sudden... Also why are people buying TLT? Gross...
Why buy VOO when you can buy TLT? Its 1.5% today. Lmao fucking 20 year bond ETFs trading like meme stocks
yeah. TLT above $81 now. everyone thinks inflation stopped and rates won't go higher? what's the logic? still lots of cost push inflation! we destroyed means of producing oil, gas, diesel, helium, fertilizer and aluminum. make it make sense.
Sits back and watches the markets open all red while holding TLT shares 😄
Should have kept my TLT leaps fml
I bought TLT calls at close. That’s how I know this equity dump is fake
Yeah munis looking nice if your portfolio doesn't have any fixed income in it right now. I've been writing some CSPs on TLT for similar reasons with the intent to wheel some shares and just collecting the monthly dividend if they don't get assigned. Keeping some cash to average down in cash it shits the bed while I'm holding shares, avoiding being too heavy around Fed meetings etc.
Step-TLT, what are you doing? 🥵
A 748 million buy was entered on TLT today. It was a sweep buy.