TLT

Lootoholic

If you wanna feel better compare yourself against bond market. TLT is down 6% YTD. so you have done 5% better than the so called safe investment. congrats.

chicago105050

Appreciate the note. Direction is right… I want to collect premium if TLT stays here or drops (rates don’t fall enough to refi). The 83/88 put debit is the other side of that: it only pays if TLT sells off. If rates just sit, that spread loses the debit. The call credit keeps the premium in the “no refi” scenario, which is the actual exposure I’m offsetting. Agree on taking profit early and running Oct/Nov/Dec and rolling. Already planning the ladder that way. You think this structure is best for my goal? Curious your opinion.

zachmoe

I'm down 91k on TLT lmao.

Sideways-Sid

I may have misunderstood but it seems that you expect rates will rise (and TLT to fall) so you have proposed an OtM call credit spread to earn $0.50 on $4.50 VaR with a buffer in TLT equivalent to an adverse move of c.0.25-0.65% But would a 83/88 Put Spread at $3.90 debit work for you? If TLT is below $83 at expiry you have $1.10 profit on $3.90 VaR. with a smaller buffer. (b/e $84.10) re your q1 management point you can enter a GtC to StC half-way & take $0.55 if you wish, which gives you more cash profit than your proposed structure in less time. re your q.3, in absence of good reasons to only trade Nov expiry, I would be trading Oct, Nov and December, rolling as appropriate when you take profit.

Zestyclose-Key4479

Norway 2 T w e a l t h f u n d p l a n s 2Twealthfundplans80B cut in US Treasuries NBIM caps government bond weighting at 50% on rising debt risk Sovereign diversification pressures long term yields and hurts $TLT

PutSpreadDaddi69

Literally have no idea what’s going on. Why is TLT green?

PutSpreadDaddi69

Lmao TLT green. Priced in by bonds I guess.

PutSpreadDaddi69

Interesting TLT not dead

Thecreamcheeze

Let’s go TLT

Putrid_Pollution3455

Hey Bessent, give me 4 Billy into TLT starting September 9th please. I find printing money completely deplorable but if you’re going to do it I guess I better get paid

Lootoholic

So you made about 33% in a year? that's pretty good for a bond considering their boring nature. I recently bought some TLT hoping to make 15% in a year.

Careless-Place-170

I have thought about porting TLT puts to drive down interest rates

Careless-Place-170

"I have thought about porting TLT puts to drive down interest rates" my brother in christ how much capital do you have if full porting moves interest rates lmao

spilledonwhite

Kind of waiting until after November to fix oil and interest rates... my one cope is that at least everyone is seeing how shitty everything is. Not that I think the other side can do a great job fixing shit but maybe not actively cause chaos all the time. I have thought about porting TLT puts to drive down interest rates so I can refinance my mortgage. Either way I'll win somehow in that scenario. But again, I'm watching that situation with popcorn for now.

spilledonwhite

I truly believe I control the market. I truly believe the reason yields are spiking is because I bought a TLT call in July. I truly believe if I full ported oil we would get peace in the middle east for 100 years. This week my collection of drone shares were getting absolutely decimated so I bought puts on the biggest problem child (ONDS) with 100% confidence they would reverse. ONDS did +9% after that and the others stayed flat I'm not even joking. I can walk you through every rally I have killed, it is insane. I truly believe if I full port VOO it will cause the next great depression.

TreGet234

Oil up, btc up, gold up, spy up, TLT up, dxy down None of it makes any sense Huge interventation brewing??

TreGet234

The zeberg prediction is coming true...dxy collapsing, fueling a final risk on rally blow off top, eth to 8k, culminating in october-november, TLT beginning its slow ascent... and then boom, crash and recession... everything collapses in 2027 while dxy and TLT both rip to 120...

PutSpreadDaddi69

TLT gang rise up

-sakuranbo

bessent can u pump treasuries next my TLT position has been bleeding every day

Cav829

You are now down over 6% if you bought TLT at the start of the year. You would have made more money leaving your cash in a savings account.

notsuspendedlxqt

Hey uh I know this thread is more than 2 years old, I stumbled across it while doing research to see if TLT is worth it, and TLT is hitting all time lows. So yeah.

hedgedvol

The 85/90 credit pays if TLT stays under 85.50. That's the same rally that makes the refi possible, so the spread loses on the outcome he actually wants.

Fhyzikz

On the max time chart, the volume on TLT specifically since around 2022 is totally insane

kmouratidis

Sorry, mixed the tickers like the degen that I am. I meant SGOV, not TLT.

kmouratidis

TLT.

Cav829

I just saw TLT loss porn. Just when you think you've seen everything.

spilledonwhite

I am certain I could ensure 100 years of peace in the middle east simply by buying calls on oil. I could buy puts on TLT and the 30 yr would drop to 3% within a month. They would be giving out mortgages for free.

big_deal

Zoom out to 2020 and see what 8% inflation did to TLT... Last I checked it was still about 40% down from max high accounting for reinvested yield / total return.

wf1980

The market is fascinating. People can look at the exact same scenario and come to completely different conclusions. In my case, I'm betting heavily on rates coming down. I'm even selling OTM CSPs on TMF. Trading options makes it even more fascinating because you and I can both make money at the same time, even if only one of us is right about the direction of the TLT.

RedTrumpetVine

I just checked TLT. I see no obliteration.

Weak_Alternative_168

treasury publishes the curve end of day so sept 2 isnt up yet. the last one on file is sept 1, and the 10 year par yield there is 4.79. the part id push back on is calling that a risk free rate. on the same table the 3 month is 3.92, the 6 month is 4.00, the 1 year is 4.18. thats the end with no duration in it, and its nowhere near 5. you only get 4.79 by taking ten years of duration, and the only two points on the whole curve above 5 are the 20 and the 30 year, which is the part TLT sits in. so the extra yield youre calling risk free and the thing you said is getting obliterated are the same 87 basis points, described twice in one post. none of that says yields cant keep going. its that the number you can have without the risk is 3.92, not 4.8.

Working-Message4504

TLT 1 year price is down 4.3% but pays 4.75%….obliterated you say?

Cav829

The irony of the bull thesis atm being "people buying TLT" is exquisite.

StatisticalMan

It isn't a 4.8% risk free rate unless you are holding for 10 years. As you point out TLT is getting obliterated. >Every major fund is going to have to rebalance out of high-multiple tech and into fixed income if this yields hold above 4.8%. No they won't. First about half of all AUM are in index funds. They won't rebalance a single penny into fixed income. The second is inflation. If inflation creeps higher that 4.8% isn't as attractive.

Fhyzikz

Yuge pump. I'm still in the red on everything I own other than TLT and that retarded USO put I bought at close. Gonna have to do better than that

Squirr3I

I would highly recommend buying $TLT with as much leverage as possible - yields won't go much higher. Nothing more exciting than trading bonds on leverage

claytondpark

Told this dude not to hold TLT options, it's a fuckin scam. This guy is down over $800k (-50%) over 5 months on Jan 28 leapson a $5-6 drop... https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/y8HoY1kQ8a

lipmanz

Hugh Hendry saying the time to buy TLT is not now but when it approaches 108? But if it’s going to at least 108 then…….

Careless-Place-170

it's a bit of a clustefuck tbh, coupon rates, current yields, yields to maturity, face value, price. It gets worse when you look at fixed duration ETFs like TLT. It is lowkey interesting, anything but intuitive though

Dense_Ostrich_6077

I have a few contracts with 90 strike as a hedge for my fixed income port in case of the exact situation we find ourselves in. Moves so far have been pretty muted but it's TLT the moment it starts acting like a meme stock stuff will get interesting real.fast

Careless-Place-170

When yields start coming down, TLT would be around 74$ if yields climb from 5.25% to 6%..

NeverDeltaNeutral

Should have bought way more TLT puts. Down $42k YTD and that would have helped

OnwardFeats

I’ll buy $TLT if everyone else agrees to buy also, like tomorrow at 9:40 or something

Spac55

Fed is talking less, feels hawkish, it doesn’t mean he will raise rate. Fed & Treasury both work with same interest, to make strong economy. 10Yr bump by Bond jokers, like they expect 6 rate hike in 2021, never got one. $TLT $TMF $BND $SPY $QQQ $SMH don’t see any systemic risk

MerryRunaround

This is not a mortgage story. It's a story about inflation, interest rates, the fed, and tactical options trading. The market doesn't care if you are waiting on a mortgage or if you want to buy sushi and a jet ski. But I think the options plays are decent because IMO interest rates will not be coming down for a long long time. Trump has fkd up the economy bigly so inflation is getting worse from here. I was in TLT until a couple months ago and feeling very glad I managed to get out with a modest profit.

DSCN__034

When you buy an individual bond the Yield to Maturity (YTM) is pretty much what you'll get when the bond matures. With a bond fund, like TLT or IEF, the fund will continue to buy bonds so the YTM is constantly changing, for better or worse. Another way to think about it is that the individual bond will have constantly decreasing duration risk as it gets closer to maturity. The bond fund will not. That increased risk in the bond fund may work out better (if yields are decreasing and bond prices are rising) or worse (if yields are rising and bond prices are declining). Typically, retirees want decreasing risk over time, which is why bond ladders with defined maturities are used. Non-retirees can use bond funds as a hedge against a stock market sell-off since historically bond prices rise and yields drop when there is a market sell-off, i.e., they are usually non-correlated or even inversely correlated assets. However, in 2022 we had a strong correlation to stock and bond prices as they both sold off at the same time. Ouch. This may have been a one-off, a perfect storm that won't be repeated, but that is the scenario.

Careless-Place-170

It could go lower, it moves with yields basically and we're at around 5.25% now. If yields go up to 15.00% (which would be pretty insane imo) TLT would drop to around 28$.. At 6% yields it'd be around 74$. If yields drop to 3.00% it'd be roughly 120$. It doesn't matter that it started in 2002, you can calculate the price of TLT at any point in time if you know the yield on 20y+ bonds. I'm not religious about getting in at 78, that's not that far off tbh, that'd be a yield of around 5.66%. Tbh there are probably better ways to play this trade out but I'm a bit lazy and my broker is kinda limited in the instruments available (i.e. no futures / options). My general play is basically short things now, move into TLT later once once it's clear cuts will be needed (or once the rate cut cycle starts).

autumnbreeznleaves

I haven't really been paying attention to stocks for weeks. I had some extra cash so I was debating buying some $TLT or $VT since interest rates are near 5%. However I really don't want to own 30 yr US treasuries so I bought 200 more shares of $PHYS (Gold) instead. If Crude Oil prices go much higher it will start causing demand destruction and prices will fall. Gov't & CB's will step in & turn on money printers to go Brrrrrrrr leading us back to Gold.

A10cc

LOL just break the 22 year low already TLT. Rip the bandaid off so everything can get fucked.

Which-Indication4670

Does it worry you that TLT didn’t exist until 2002? This situation feels different than anything I’ve been alive for. It looks like this is the lowest TLT has dropped since inception. Who’s to say it doesn’t just keep dropping? Curious because I had the same thought, but then noticed the inception date and second-guessed it.

OnwardFeats

how is TLT not a buy? even if it goes down just buy more?

tldamico

Like I said, only logical move for TLT was to massively dump. Let the dumpage continue...

OnwardFeats

i've had my eye on $TLT. Seems like a no brainer??

tldamico

TLT. Only logical outcome is a massive dump. Anything else is the market being contrarian.

achieve_tendernism

Sell my oil longs I’ve been positioned in, probably short it. Long TLT. lol 😆

dude12431

Buy some very long term AA or better corporate bonds paying 6%. Better than TLT in my opinion.

tldamico

TLT is so irrational. Don't know why I still play it.

IvoryTowerResident

TLT red to green interesting

TreGet234

TLT refusing to break the pivotal 80$ mark.

Fhyzikz

Errybody talkin bout Vs and shit while all my shit is still wildly underwater other than TLT

tldamico

I can see it now. Next tweet will pump TLT, even though the tweet will further underscore our leadership is not at the helm.

PutSpreadDaddi69

TLT mooning

the_mind_goblin1

TLT catching a slight bid

OnwardFeats

I wanna buy $TLT , even if rates keep going up. Need some bond exposure and diversivfcation anyway

Meanboy_og

Good ! Bought TLT

No_Presentation9490

way more buying volume than selling volume on TLT right now. somethings not adding up

WordsHappenedHere

10yr probably going to 5 before TLT finds a bottom

GivemetheDetails

TLT is going crazy just cut its losses in half

BlackKnightsOptions

TLT almost back to all time lows

No_Presentation9490

TLT might hit all time low today. All time low since 1996. Buckle up boys

Careless-Place-170

Short debt heavy, low margin companies that need low rates to survive, short Korea, slowly starting to build a long position in TLT, probably deploy fully at around 78 if we get there. Eventually short Nikkei. Basically bet on short / mid term hikes in the US, Japan, Korea, a market correction and eventual rate cuts

tldamico

Odd how all the charts mostly look the same. Even SLV and GLD looks like the SPY chart which looks like QQQ chart which looks like the TLT chart. Why bother picking any if they all look the same?

tldamico

Now is the worst time to buy TLT puts, because you know at any moment so stupid tweet will wreck you.

ShittyUsernane1222

it would be funny if SPY had an +20% day on no news while TLT dropped to 0

financiallythriving

Imagine thinking TLT was a safe haven years ago

Natarian86

TLT getting butt bumped. Nothing to see here.

Humorsuz

Why is TLT down almost 1 % after hours

Careless-Place-170

It's 2030, TLT trades at -13$ a share

Careless-Place-170

Then some TLT adjacent bullshit

WorkSucks135

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations Put in TLT, GLD, and SLV. They are uncorrelated.

spilledonwhite

I bought a TLT Nov Call in July thinking it was another bottom. It was not and it has not been a good time. Look at a 6-month chart, it seemed like a layup.

Lootoholic

I just looked at the chart. What a weird chart it is with the ex-div zigzags. I bought some TLT recently. Can't stay this low forever.

Canafornication

I was thinking about the same. It became very boring, flat environment. All IV is priced kinda the same right now, on the lower side. There is some high flyers still around but they are too expensive like MU. I was trying to sell puts on Campbell soup today Lol - totally desperate for premiums. I made a bulk of profits on similar annualized scale by selling options on the same names, but from calls :) When IV is high - it pays well. And also luck. \> How do you approach low-IV environments? Do you simply sell less premium, or switch strategies/exposures? Same strategies. I try to keep more capital unused (30%), doing mostly small names, selling puts on hates ones (82 October put in TLT today) \> I keep reading about delta-neutral strategies I stopped paying much attention to portfolio delta and how neutral it is. Markets unpredictable. \> how would you think about positioning Same, mechanical. I check stocks with high IVr, see what's beaten to sell puts, what's pumped to sell calls, click generate trade until there are a few ideas with various rates of returns. Click submit, and then repeat when position gets closed.

ShittyUsernane1222

it would be funny if TLT and MSTR merged into one financial asset. because if it trades like a shitcoin, it is a shitcoin

Own-Recipe5908

Actually think it would be better for TLT if fed does hike.

Spac55

TLT, adding, Fed not hike, Treasury buy long term bond, both crash 10 yr soon

InvisibleEar

Back on my bullshit (putting my emergency fund in TLT)

ericthedisrespectful

when should we buy TLT

RuleSafe6767

Damn TLT just keep grinding lower (that the 20yr USD bond ETF; Now paying 4.75% after price fell another 0.75% today) these are bigger price drops in a day that normally take a month to realize

TreGet234

I'm bullish for end of september and into october. Corporate profitability is in a golden age. Gold appetire is in a golden age. Protection via TLT or put options is dirt cheap. Crypto will either have a god pump or fall to a cycle low which will be an incredible buy. Real estate looks to have topped. Good times are ahead. The consumer and labor market do not factor in anymore.

terrybmw335

Glad I rolled out of TLT last week over to SGOV.

razgriz11

Anyone thinking about TLT??

No_Presentation9490

It never plays out the same way or in comparable timeframes, I'm personally doing this myself because I expect stagflation but it is super risky and if you don't have lots of risk management and watching technical analysis carefully it's probably not even worth trying. Even though I trust my ability to be nimble with the trades I fully expect to lose 10-15% of port in the short term managing these trades from getting whipsawed, which is a risk I'm accepting. It's very possible TLT just implodes and sets a new generational low from which it doesn't recover.

TreGet234

I'm saying is that TLT is really finicky. Even if you time it perfectly into a historic crash your upside is 90$ going to 120$... Puts are probably a better hedge.

TreGet234

Yes, long-term treasury yields did bounce back up remarkably fast.The parabolic surge in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) to $120 and its swift return to the $90s was entirely driven by an unprecedented, rapid round-trip in long-term yields.📉 The Yield Crash (November – December 2008)When Lehman Brothers collapsed, market participants panicked. Investors did not care about yield; they wanted absolute safety. They aggressively bought long-term government debt, forcing yields down.The Math: In the final months of 2008, the 30-year Treasury yield crashed from roughly 4.50% down to an all-time low of 2.53% in December.The TLT Impact: Because TLT holds bonds with an average duration of roughly 15–17 years, a sudden ~200 basis point drop in yields forced an explosive, leveraged-style spike in bond prices. This created the brief $120 peak.📈 The Yield Rebound (January – May 2009)Almost as soon as the panic selling in equities paused, long-term yields violently reversed course. By May 2009, the 30-year Treasury yield had surged right back up to nearly 4.50%.Three structural drivers caused this sudden shift:The Birth of Quantitative Easing (QE1): In late 2008 and early 2009, the Federal Reserve announced it would purchase massive amounts of debt. Counterintuitively, instead of lowering long yields, this move signaled to the market that the Fed would do "whatever it takes" to stop a depression. Safe-haven demand evaporated instantly, causing investors to exit long bonds.Aggressive Fiscal Stimulus: In early 2009, the U.S. government passed the massive American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. To fund this stimulus, the U.S. Treasury had to issue an unprecedented volume of new bonds. This massive wave of upcoming supply forced bond prices down and yields up.The Return of Inflation Expectations: With the Fed slashing short-term rates to 0% and printing money via QE, investors immediately began pricing in long-term inflation. While short-term rates stayed anchored at zero, long-term investors demanded a much higher yield premium to hold 30-year debt, steepening the yield curve dramatically.

TreGet234

So if next year is 2008 again you should hold TLT for 3 months then switch to gold for 3 months and then switch to qqq after that? (If no stagflation) That makes sense but will be so stressfull to pull off.

TreGet234

Jesus TLT didn't even do well for long in 2008. Had a little squeeze up that lasted like a few months. How is that even possible? Dear lord bonds suck.

TreGet234

The cyclical top is near. The second capex slows down the memory makers will see their forward PEs double and triple and then they are just mediocre semi stocks with 0 further growth potential and will get dumped. You can't have a mature large cap tech stock with no projected earnings growth. Earnings will still be stellar but they won't really grow, leading to a stagnant stock. The memory hype is over and with it the entire ai hardware hype bubble. And honestly with that the entire ai bubble. I don't see the stock market crashing violently but gold and wheat will certainly outperform it. If we get a wider recession in the labor market on top of that then TLT will outperform too.

Creative_Youth_4982

eh, together they are relatively safe. also have a system to switch to BIL or CLOZ (instead of TLT) depending on trend. gotta stay invested otherwise you can get fomo and make mistakes

Creative_Youth_4982

yeah, risk off for me right now. 60/40 SPY/TLT for the largest portion of the port and mostly cash in the small "risky" side of the port