XOM

terminalguy007

The Strait of Hormuz is the tightest chokepoint in global energy — roughly 20% of world oil supply and a third of all LNG passes through it. Historically, actual closures haven't held for long because Iran's own oil exports depend on the same passage, but even a credible threat reprices risk premiums fast. The 2019 tanker incidents sent Brent up 4-5% intraday before fading within a week once the posturing became clearer. The market sectors to watch: integrated majors (XOM, CVX) and tanker operators (STNG, FRO) get a bid immediately. Refiners are mixed — higher crude input costs squeeze margins unless they can pass through. Defense names get a look too. The broader index reaction depends on how bond yields move; oil shocks that bleed into CPI expectations can reprice rate cut timelines and that hits multiples across the board harder than the direct energy exposure. The key question is duration intent vs. tactical posture. Iran has issued Hormuz closure threats roughly a dozen times since 2008 without following through on a sustained basis, largely because it would be self-defeating economically. That pattern suggests knee-jerk energy spike trades have a poor risk/reward on longer holds. The more durable play, if this escalates, is probably defense primes and domestic US E&P names that benefit from a structural shift away from Middle East supply.

5ongwrit3r_1954

I like UPS and PFE, both solid balance sheets with a 6% yield. A little higher risk is BGS with a double digit dividend. XOM at about 4% also worth a look.

Jericho3434

Didn’t XOM say in their last earnings call that Iran blew up a bunch of their infrastructure in the ME and their stock went down? Lmao

SteakEater137

Gasoline prices since Iran war started - up over 30% Stock price of gas sellers like XOM, CVX, SHEL since war started - down 5% Ok.

ShimmyxSham

XOM before earnings on July 30th. Do you know how much these fuckers are making? Projected 3X earnings vs last quarter

Maxh_SCGA

Their foot it on fire and they think their steak is done... you would think my XOM calls would be In the money

RevolutionaryPhoto24

Agreed. (I’m long XOM LEAPS.)

SteakEater137

The market should have already priced this in, but I feel like integrated oil stocks like XOM, CVX, and SHEL are going to blow up when they release their earnings at the end of the month. They're all below their pre-war prices by quite a bit, even though oil price and especially refined product price has been way above normal during the last quarter. I can understand why their stock price is pegged to oil barrel price, but upstream is only a portion of their revenue, so it's very strange to see them so beaten down

I_Call_Bullshit_____

There’s other Chinese tech indexes but KWEB is my preferred vehicle. It’s trading at **12.86 p/e with an 8.6% dividend. That is insane, and won’t last.** In two words? Mean reversion. I’ve done this trade 4 times in the last 5 years for an average of 40% return each time. I anticipate 60% this time since I timed my entries better. $25 average cost basis, still adding but cautiously. I also like selling calls backed by my shares, good premiums when it starts to rip. I roll until my shares get called away at my exit price. Chinese stocks have sickening levels of volatility; picking my entry and exit points before they happen allows me to ignore the Noise. Why China? **Because it’s currently one of if not THE most unloved investment in the world.** I *love* unloved; bought Intel this last August at $21. Bought XOM all of 2020. META in 2022. I don’t chase ATH’s; I like Unloved Shit. There’s good money in Shit.

I_Call_Bullshit_____

I swapped most of my holdings over to KWEB; I see a fundamental lack of value in US equities **with some exceptions.** I’m not going to chase exceptions when there’s loads of value to be found overseas, particularly in Hong Kong. I like unloved sectors, $29 entry in XOM in 2020 when oil was negative is my style. I don’t buy ATH’s.

InvisibleEar

XOM will probably have blowout earnings eom.

reaper527

> Of course I was downvoted for pleading with oil bulls to close their positions in the red yesterday to be fair, while not **exactly** what you're talking about (but definitely related) my XOM shares are a permanent part of my portfolio. they'll spike up when the rest of the market crashes, and when the rest of the market is good they'll be flat but pay out a good dividend.

SlowAndSteadyFarm

mostly tech (APPL NVDA AMD JBL FSLR DE) and oil (TRP, FTS, XOM).

RealPennyMuncher

Taking nibbles at XOM. Oil will retest 82 ppb before it decides to find its home in the low 60s

SteakEater137

Oil up 6% Bombs flying Tanker traffic stopped XOM down 1%?

SteakEater137

NVDA after repeated "news" that has been announced about 5x over the last few months: *+3%* XOM after ceasefire broken, bombing, tankers getting halted, oil price up, projected billions in earnings next quarter: *-1%*

PassiveF1st

Meanwhile my XOM is down almost a full % today :P

SteakEater137

# [Exxon Mobil signals higher second-quarter earnings](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-mobil-signals-higher-second-quarter-earnings-2026-07-07/) U.S. oil and gas major Exxon ​Mobil signaled on Tuesday that changes in ‌oil prices would boost its second-quarter upstream earnings by $3.5 ​billion to $3.9 billion. Oil up 6+% today, ceasefire off, oil tankers being shot ...and yet XOM is down almost a percent today while 6% lower than its prewar price. Make it make sense lmao

sixjasefive

Long time XOM holder. I’m happy.

SteakEater137

Ceasefire over, back to bombing, reserves running out, Hormuz shipping a fraction of the normal volume for months, oil jumped up 7% overnight... So naturally oil companies like CVX, XOM and SHEL are all well below their **pre-war** prices still.

Pizzabe

XOM calls boys

neillson01

Buy XOM to offset fuel hikes 🤷🏻

brutalpancake

I really don’t know. When it got to 1T that felt crazy. When AAPL first hit 1T that also seemed crazy. When XOM first hit 100B? Also crazy. Fact is there’s never been a company with the level of revenue size and growth it has. Like 80B revenue growing 80%. I’m not saying like all in forever on it. Just that OP doesn’t really have a good reason to bail on it here to buy names that are getting crushed rn. He’s just getting fidgety.

TheOriginalBushToad

Glad I held on to my XOM calls....BOMB, BOMB, BOMB.....BOMB, BOMB IRAN!!

ADynes

With this tasty dip my portfolio is now 89% RIVN, 5% deep red XOM and CELH calls, and 6% cash just waiting for another bad decision.

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

Reminds me of holding XOM during the war. Good times.

PoobliusFlavius

They pumpin everything BUT TECH LMFAO XOM+2% KO even moar kek

reaper527

so XOM's maintenance requirement on RH jumped up to 100% today. that's certainly inconvenient given that it's 40% of my "play" account. assuming it's a temporary thing that will go back to the standard 30% pretty shortly.

Clackamas1

Dude XOM going to 170 is near impossible.

WonderfulMidwest

Bro really thought XOM would hit $170

perogi-king

You dont really buy XOM to make fast cash

kwijibokwijibo

They have XOM calls at 170, not oil Basically they're betting on the situation getting worse than the peak of the Hormuz panic

yuilleb

XOM is much more likely to hit $120 than $170. $138 is where it wants to be until early 2028.

JohnPaulDavyJones

Looks like you're not really getting answers in these comments, so I'll offer up. Most of the western nations have been bridging the oil supply gap with massive releases from crude storage, coupled with the world's largest crude consumer, China, slashing their intake volume. That means that supply volume *in the market* has actually been a glut while the volume flowing *into* the market has been decreased. That's currently nearing the end of available volumes before crude stores hit critical lows; it's expected within the month if on prior trajectory. The differentiator is that Donald Trump seems absolutely hell-bent on getting the US out of the Iran conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, no matter what deal he has to take to do it, and leaving other countries to mop up the issue of tolling; that means that it's viewed as increasingly likely that the Strait is reopened relatively quickly at this point. The Russia news is harder to nail down because basically all Russian crude in the market is in the shadow fleet, which is largely untracked even by major commodity traders; they're indexing net shadow fleet activity by what's being taken at ports of shadow fleet-friendly nations like India. Across from that, the entire oil market is a structure of lagging inputs, since it takes weeks for the heavy crude on VLTs out in the middle east to reach the US and offload their cargo load. All that said, while it *is* likely that XOM benefits from some oil shock news in the next month as stocks hit critical lows, I'd be shocked if you benefited substantially from $170 calls, given that their share price barely crossed that even back when the war was firing up and the future of the oil markets was uncertain. The expectation for XOM is north of $170 by EOY, but not by much. I don't think you're banking out on this one.

Str8truth

I'll sell you my XOM shares for $170.

I_Call_Bullshit_____

I bet against oil when it cracked $120 a barrel in early April 2026, seemed like free money. I bought my XOM in March/April/September 2020; we are not the same

Maxh_SCGA

I bought XOM stocks too... how can Hormuz and Russia burn and not send Oil parabolic? Russia is the bigger deal they have kept selling oil dispite sanctions.

I_Call_Bullshit_____

You bet on what the news cycle told you, not what history has repeatedly shown. Did you really think oil was going to be \*allowed\* to get much above $120 a barrel? It crashes the world economy when it does that. So you had the entire planet aligned…..against your trade. And that’s coming from an XOM shareholder. But my cost base is $32, because I, unlike you, am not Regarded and bought low. RIP your calls

ArtichokePower

dw tho US reserves are dangerously low and XOM is going to have a blockbuster earnings call that has rolled over deliveries from shipping delays in the previous quarter. XOM will bounce 160+ by end of august and beyond by eoy. im loading up xom calls also. politically there is a strong incentive for them to keep oil prices low thru the midterms but i dont think its feasible, the "peace" in the middle east is dependant on israeli cooperation but i cannot think of a way they can restrain israel. the US reserves are about tapped out.

KyleNoThumbs319

Are you the guy with the XOM calls

TheDueDiligent

the margin comparison doesn't hold up. XOM's 30% gross margin is low because it's integrated, refining and chemicals are low margin by design, that's not XOM being worse than FANG, it's a different business. stacking a pure permian E&P against an integrated major on gross margin is apples to oranges. & like others said, FANG is basically levered beta to crude. a 3 to 6 month outperform call here is just an oil price bet wearing a valuation costume, and right now oil is telling you oversupply, not shock.

Moldovah

I don't hold any single stock positions, only ETFs: |Holding Symbol|Holding Name|Overall Weighting|Number of ETFs Exposed| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |000660|SK hynix Inc.|1.47%|1 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |MU|Micron Technology, Inc.|1.39%|2 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |005930|Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.|0.95%|1 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |NVDA|NVIDIA Corporation|0.78%|1 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |VSAT|ViaSat, Inc.|0.63%|4 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |AVGO|Broadcom Inc.|0.61%|1 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |LRCX|Lam Research Corporation|0.56%|2 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |402340|SK Square Co., Ltd.|0.51%|1 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |XOM|ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation|0.47%|2 [ View](javascript:void(0))| |FTI|TechnipFMC plc|0.46%|3 [ View](javascript:void(0))|

paragonx29

You gotta diversity a bit my friend: COKE, XOM even a more aggressive index ETF like SPMO. The last couple of weeks I too have realized I'm still too top-heavy in Tech and Space.

SteakEater137

Some metrics say oil levels are going to get critical in July and companies like XOM, CVX, and SHEL post earnings+guidance at the end of the month as well. Even assuming things dont continue to escalate in Iran, next month might be the time where energy companies shine. All the jawboning has them at 5%+ BELOW their pre-war levels, which makes no sense no matter how you slice it, considering elevated oil price in the short term and nations’ reserves needing to be refilled in the long term.

CheeseSteak17

It was still pretty terrifying. The news stories that day were questioning \*if\* oil could go negative. Like, could the systems handle a negative number or would everything break. So much uncharted territory. Still thousands of people dying each day. Parts of the world literally on fire. Even so, I loaded up on XOM leaps along with some other oil stuff. Made like $250k. I’m sure there were traders who had more than 6 months experience who really made bank from that day.

FrigginMasshole

I bought XOM during Covid at around $60 per share so I gained pretty decent from that but it seems like it’s been plateaued for the last couple years. I sold all my shares of XOM for spacex lol.

FrigginMasshole

Sell MSFT for XOM? Or go all in on SPCX?

E39_CBX

I’m buying XOM personally

FrigginMasshole

Lol out of MSFT, XOM, SPCX and a few other ETFs I’ve gained the most money over 10 years with my 2060 target date fund 🤡

VBTheBearded1

XOM was up today 

gainsusmaximus

XOM gang rise up 🖤💦💦😤😤

SteakEater137

What are the chances that next earnings cycle, energy stocks like CVX, XOM, SHEL etc blow up in value as the retarded short-sighted market realizes theyve been making money hand over fist with the elevated oil prices?

punch0073735963

Listen, when you're up several hundred percent, sell at least some of it. Book the gains, save some to the side for taxes (maybe even make an estimated payment) and enjoy. When stocks are hitting all time highs and everyone is sanguine is when you book some profits. Now you've seen the beginning of a little rotation out of tech as smarter money takes profits, and you don't know what to do. How much is up to you but if you've got a 5 bagger you can sell half the position, recover way more than your basis, and have some gains to use. Home improvements, car repair, pay off bills or debt? Any of those are good uses for big gains. If you sell and leave the funds in your account, there's nothing wrong with getting 3-4% in money market for a few months. We still have a war on, inflation raging, a pull back in the high flying AI and chip stocks, uncertainty on interest rates, etc. We also have MASSIVE IPOs coming, Anthropic and OpenAI, on top of SpaceX, so there is still room for more selling as people chase new issues. Money market too boring? Then buy shares of something in retail, health care or utilities, that has a dividend yield of 1.5% more. I hold big positions in ED, XOM, TJX, and VZ for that purpose. When I shave off huge tech gains I put some of that into positions that will pay me money. Over the long term those positions will build and compound. (I know VZ's price action has been terrible but it's now yielding 6% and their free cash flow seems to be able to support it the dividend). If you like the long term theory you can always buy more at a better price. Stocks that go parabolic always come down, even if the fundamental thesis remains. But for your sake, for your daughter's sake, there's nothing wrong with taking some profits along the way. (Tommy Boy reference). Not every trade has to be all or nothing. Okay, I should stop rambling now.

2QuarterDollar

XOM just flipped green

No-Improvement3164

It’s doesn’t seem to matter how low oil drops XOM doesn’t go below 140

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

You buy AI and SpaceX, fine. I buy US oil producers ! MTDR - SM - DVN - OXY - XOM There is no "peace plan" US-Iran. The U.S. concessions are so significant that it is indeed hard to believe the Senate will agree to put in writing that Iran has won the war. That is why the markets and the CME Group are not allowing futures prices to fall below $75—the probability of the negotiations failing is simply too high. Second, Energy Agency's warning of a looming supply overhang next year against firmer near-term demand to replenish depleted inventories. Be ready

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

What to buy?? US oil producers !! MTDR - SM - DEVON - OXY - XOM The U.S. concessions are so significant that it is indeed hard to believe the Senate will agree to put in writing that Iran has won the war. That is why the markets and the CME Group are not allowing futures prices to fall below $75—the probability of the negotiations failing is simply too high. Second, Energy Agency's warning of a looming supply overhang next year against firmer near-term demand to replenish depleted inventories.

svix_ftw

Nope its never the one you expect. It will be a come from behind victory for XOM

chaozunderlord

I also got fucked so many times by uso. Now went to XOM based on the premise that oil will not go down on the short term. But there is a big chance it goes up because of taco or israel.

trumpdiego

i mean, it wouldnt hurt to buy 1 XOM a day for the next few months

SteakEater137

Market pricing energy stocks as if the strait has already been open for a year. It knows it's going to take time to go back to normal and there's a big backlog, right? Assuming everything actually ends up going as planned Friday... Lower than pre-war pricing for XOM and CVX is something I really can't wrap my head around considering elevated oil prices.

SteakEater137

Lol CVX and XOM are down like 5% from even pre-war levels. I think the market might be overreacting a bit to this concept of a peace deal

InitiativeGlum2507

Boy am I glad I sold XOM @ 176 a few months ago

DressedInPolo

If only it workd like that, ill take a chance to buy XOM if it drops tomorrow, onlyy because oil cant fucking teleport to the destinations

E39_CBX

XOM should still be green tomorrow right?

E39_CBX

Haven’t checked any news today how much am I gonna be up on my XOM calls tomorrow?

Quin1617

SPY’s down 30%. XOM’s up 100%.

E39_CBX

Bought UCO USO XOM CVX calls today at close. How am I gonna do Monday?

SteakEater137

Its weird that inflation is coming in so high because of oil (obviously because of the war), but meanwhile oil producing companies like CVX and XOM are trading below their pre war prices. How is it possible that the companies providing the thing causing inflation cant even keep up with inflation wtf

SteakEater137

Today is fucking weird. Oil down but oil stocks (XOM, CVX, etc) up.

butthead4206969

XOM and CVX are supplying the data centers with natural gas. And they both pay dividends which is nice.

bozoputer

you are not talking about energy stocks, you are talking about utilities and industrials for those applications. Energy stocks are oil and gas, and while gas might have a big role, this is all electrical generation and infrastructure, not XOM and CVX

Numerous_Jelly1635

I live in South Korea and two days ago was seriously tempted to buy Hynix and Samsung weeklies... only would've been 3 grands worth but you need to watch a required video course and paper trade for a couple hours So I bought XOM instead 😂

sdanielsmith

I trade XLE on the Iran situation. Mostly XOM and CVX, but it does even it out a bit. I usually buy on Friday or just as soon as I hear movement, and I sell when the bastard announces yet another peace deal close. I usually make a percent or two on the gain, but I'm learning to play the system they've built.

SteakEater137

During the last 3 months, AMC doubled in price, while XOM has gone down 1%. So much for that oil crises. Fuck this meme market lol

E39_CBX

Deal seems closer than ever though. Worried my XOM calls are gonna get smoked this time

Paul_Robert_

Everytime I see the ticker "XOM" my brain autocorrects it to the game, "XCOM"

E39_CBX

Are my XOM calls cooked?

SteakEater137

I understand oil stocks like CVX and XOM going down on peace deal rumors (fake or not), but how is it that theyre trading lower than their prewar levels with oil prices at least 40% higher per barrel lol

E39_CBX

All in on this XOM dip for inevitable rip back to 155. Fuck you

E39_CBX

Considering holding my August XOM calls over the weekend, am I gonna get absolutely fucked

E39_CBX

Then why is XOM tanking?

E39_CBX

Was buying XOM August calls a mistake

E39_CBX

Long CVX and XOM. This “deal” is fake btw

jrex035

We're more than 100 days into the worst energy crisis in history and somehow AAL has *far* better returns than XOM since the war began. Amazing stuff really, 10/10 no notes

E39_CBX

Should I full port XOM calls? This “deal” sounds like bullshit

Numerous_Jelly1635

I debated buying LUNR weeklies yesterday, wanked, and bought XOM and GEV shares instead. 

Lake-Dependent

Oil still hasn’t realized the reality not too late to jump in USO, XOM, BNO

Lake-Dependent

How are you not buying USO, XOM, BNO

gainsusmaximus

🥭 confirming Hormuz oil, or 10% of global oil to be shutdown in the near future. Long XOM

zug_moneycomes

XOM wtf why you are stagging bitch when oil pumps

Ahamadrayasbaboon

That was true of XOM not so long ago, too. 

Maxh_SCGA

My XOM Calls won't print dispite actual shortages coming.

AJ_Grey

It is kind of crazy the experts are shrugging this off when XOM and CVX have both issued warnings about global reserves. Experts are convinced a deal will happen soon and there will be a glut - prices will drop below where they were before the conflict. I just don't see it either. The picture is not as clear as it's being painted IMO.

Maxh_SCGA

And for some reason my XOM calls are not printing yet?

gainsusmaximus

Only reason for the cheap oil is the SPR drawdown, but we're about to start reaching historical lows in 2 week. I don't think. Deal is coming from our Iranian bros. Long XOM

Maxh_SCGA

There foot is on fire and they think their steak is done. I have XOM calls at $175 expiring at the end of the months

SteakEater137

I liked SHEL because of its diversification and super low forward PE and earnings beat but its been pathetic since I bought. I also have DVN since its purely US oil, but its been lackluster too lol Also CVX, XOM, and FSLR

paragonx29

Coke and XOM make up about 3.6% of my portfolio. I am going to up that along with my S&P holdings. If you're talking grams, I'm not experienced enough to answer that.

paragonx29

Any future profit-taking will go into COKE, XOM, and Sgov.