TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
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+TLT -selling near term OTM covered calls for steady income - good strategy?
On what timeframe does the bond market price interest rate changes in?
What do you guys think? SQQQ and TLT?
Inherited a bit of money, any good advice?
Thoughts on buying TLT now that JPow said rate cuts are on the table?
Risk free and guaranteed high return investment?
TLT Options Play / FED Cut Early Mid 24? / Vix Low
Is it the right time to invest in long-term bonds?
Is there a way to realize gains in one stock and move those realized gains into another stock without being taxed?
Investing in a treasury bond ETF a good idea? Please advise and don't make me talk to boomers at r/bonds
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Why would a long term investor buy stocks rather than long term bonds, currently?
Potential 6 Month Trade on TLT Targeting >14% Annualized Return
what's the point of tlt if it's just as volatile as stocks
TLT covered call(buy-write) will yield around 14%. Is this a good place to park money I won't need for 3 years?
I made a free theta gang options group. Trying to build a community of non degenerates
Just made a 10K loan to gamble in bonds
Oil Tanker Stock Investors vs TLT Bag Holders
Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
Powell will Powell the Economy + Why I'm buying TLT as a 🏳️🌈 🐻
how to maximize Exposure to interest rate movements with bonds ?
Rates are not high and the market is not crashing especially when Apple is still near ATH and not $120.
Generational buying opportunity on TLT
How Do Bond ETFs Work, and What Happens to the Principal at Maturity
Why is the yield and SEC 30 day yield of TLT so different? Which one tells you the annualized rate of the next dividend?
Find most correlated stock to TLT (treasury bond)
10Y Bonds at 4.8% Are Attractive,Especially Now
What if WSB could ignite the spark that sends $TLT parabolic?
Expected moves this week: SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO and earnings from Citi, JP Morgan, Wells and more.
With the sky high Bond Yields would it be a good idea to buy US Treasury Bond ETFs right now?
$70k Puts QQQ: The World Will Burn Edition
Is it finally, finally, finally time for TLT / long dated treasuries?
Are TLT Leaps so cheap they are worth it?
30 year US treasury yield is much better than TLT which has avg maturity of 25 years
Considering Long Duration Bonds as an Opportunity
Is TLT Hitting its Bottom? My Play for the Upcoming Rebound.
Putted 20k in bonds and down -20%
Looking for a Simple Backtest Analysis to Do. Any Ideas?
Wall Street Newsletter S03E02: Four Research papers from Jackson Hole Symposium 2023.
How to get rid of my trading habit to invest properly! Fear of losing the money!!
Doesn’t need to make sense needs to make money
Boomers Getting Flushed With Their "Balanced" Portfolios
Why is TLT still falling despite disinflation, looming recession fears and China deflation (exporting it to RoW).
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Just sold all my VOO and QQQ to put 90% in TLT and 10% in Bitcoin. Am I dumb?
Mentions
I agree with you on the weak job market/flight to safety, I’m just telling you that 20+Y bonds are primarily priced based on future inflation expectations (which are currently running high). You could be right about short term rate expectations, but even then they’re “short term” in nature — they only affect TLT’s price by a small margin compared to long term worries like inflation or risk of default. More rate cuts than expected cause 2Y bonds to skyrocket and TLT to have milquetoast rallies; probably not the result you’re betting on. I’d strongly suggest looking at other ETFs that trade shorter term bonds, say 2 to 5Y, since you’re structuring it around a recession thesis, which TLT doesn’t really care about. As for why TLT is going up recently, it’s linked to near-term dollar strengthening: stronger dollar = lower forex opp cost/better returns for investors = more demand for long-term bonds. It really doesn’t have anything to do with a 5Y recession outlook. Those only represent one sixth of a 30Y bond’s duration, institutions pure longing 30Y bonds do not care about the 5Y outlook, they’d trade 5Y or a yield curve trade to express that.
There is some money to be made in TLT.
This is why my allocation to bonds is 0%. Actually that's wrong. I just shorted TLT so it's some negative number.
$TLT just turned Green. The $DXY is back under 89. If Crude Oil top is in at 92 and we move back towards $86-$88 than the USD short squeeze failed.
You could totally be right that the early/mid term bonds are better. A couple non-optimal variables here for me in that I don't trade futures and I appreciate the high instrument liquidity. I also base my entries on a volume confirmation of a running macro thesis and I was seeing the stopping volume come into TLT hard. Today's price action post jobs news continues to confirm too. Premkt position low, insane absorption volume on a news event, and currently ripping higher through the day.
The economy is a disaster, private credit falling, clearly a crisis coming up soon... And QQQ is outperforming fuxking TLT on the day. This is so stupid lmao
Yeah once I heard the jobs report was bad I went to check TLT thinking it would be bright green. Yup, a fucking disappointment.
Why would anyone accept 4.8% for 18 years when the world has moved from zero inflation/deflation to inflation shocks every year which will means many chances of interest rates rising? TLT hasn't been a viable investment since pre-covid, the last time we had a zero-low inflation stable world
fucking dumb lol. bonds underperforming this much makes no fucking sense. Well I guess it makes sense, since in long TLT and literally everything I do turns out to be wrong
TLT dying along with SPY. This ain't good boys.
High oil inflation and rapid prices always leads to a slowdown and yields dropping. Apparently not now though, because im long TLT
Cutting short term rates won't affect TLT much, but Trump breaking the economy sure will.
And yet yields are up on this print go fucking figure. Im with you too with a very large TLT position and some calls and this week just makes no sense
Leveraged positions on the 10 and 30 yrs using IEF and TLT. Averaged in after retests of the huge reversal in October 2023. Could still be wrong, but I'm betting bonds will still hold as a flight to safety instrument. I also don't believe Trump would have hired someone in Warsh who wouldn't push hard for his cut agenda.
I decided to hedge my TLT position with a TMF short. No way this goes tits up. Also, I survived a 0dte call for strike 680 on spy today. I got lucky.
I ended up switching from BIL to SGOV, simply because shares are easier to round to 100, and using it as a buffer to absorb any potential csp assignments. Since yields are climbing back up/mean reverting, I may want to short TMF to hedge my TLT as long options haven't quite worked for me this far.
I'm gonna need to learn either Japanese or Korean to spend all this Yen & Won I'm banking in this $EWY and $EWJ trade. I incorrectly started buying $TLT since Trump wanted lower rates & a weaker USD. But the man is such a narcissist that every move Trump has made has convinced J-Pow dig in his heels even deeper to NOT cut rates. Trump has succeeded and tanking the USD thou. Meanwhile the rest of the world is watching & repatriating those dollars back home or into Gold.
Market can't rally until TLT appears bullish. So far seems like a bull trap.
There is always that possibility. But when you are 50% in cash or boring $TLT you can always take a swing for the fence now & then. All world markets are also not the same. If you compare $ACWX vs $EWY on the 5 yr charts I could see why you might say the latter could've had a blow-off top. The former? Naw.
I see the DXY dropping. On one hand, my TLT position is taking a slight hit. On the other hand, my SONY position is recovering. Weird world.
I should have sold my TLT on Friday when it was green. Ah well. I continue writing covered calls and dig my way out of the hole.
TLT trading like a meme coin
Marked safe from the great purge of WSB: TLT down, GLD down, SPY down, VIX and crude oil poppin’ 97% chance no rate cut in 15 days. Wtf is this market?
Inflation fears, I’m also massively long TLT but do understand the drivers. Higher fuel costs ripples through the economy in the form of higher cost of goods in every vertical.
I shorted TLT and SLV on Friday. AMA (as long as it has to do with the movie Rampart).
> However, I'm struggling to find good data for the bond/rates side with enough volume. 1. 10s and bonds are liquid as fuck (ugh, that came out very very wrong). But, if you already have access to IvyDB, I'd just use TLT vols 2. IIRC, IvyDB does not enforce put-call parity due to forwards, so you need to correct vols based on delta-weighting, if you want realistic numbers
Gold has replaced US 10 yr Treasuries as the new global reserve currency. I say this as a holder of $TLT. But if you are trading $TLT as I am you must hedge with Gold.
Took a loss on my TLT call position this morning. If its not gonna act like a safe haven in times of stress holding deep OTM calls is just gonna backfire. Long end yields should NOT be spiking on this development, so biting the bullet. Once we go down to support and Bond IV drops, I will be reentering but wih more time on the options
Looks like shorting bonds/TLT was the real play on Friday's close
TLT down more than SPY. looool
TLT is only down because it pays a monthly dividend. Bonds are looking pretty flat right now. The dividend would be partially priced into the calls you purchased.
Next ex-dividend for TLT. I expect it to keep crawling up in which case I may sell shares off in tranches.
$TLT Never Leaving #EmuArmy https://preview.redd.it/qg3brnvynimg1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce4c5300cba64901bdee4a71bfdb825125510158
TLT going to rocket once again
It seems like you have a low risk tolerance. Have you considered a bond ladder. I am getting close to 5 % on 20 year zero coupons. You also might consider something more like VYM, SCHD, VYMI and TLT. I would keep at one years worth of living expense in cash and slowly invest as your tolerance allows. Maybe something like : 25% Cash 25% bond ladder 25% income stocks/etf. SCHD VYM VYMI 25% Growth VOO, SPY VTI
should I start buying TLT for this recession
Believe it or not, calls on TLT or TMF
Wealthsimple on Canada. Apparently TLT traded as high as as 90.03 in AH so maybe that explains it but doesn't pass the smell test
LMAO WTF. I had sold CCs on 400 of my TLT shares for 91.00 expiring Friday and they were assigned even though TLT closed at 90.86. Wtf. Literally what the fuck. Why were they assigned when TLT never traded above 91. Now with the iran news TLT gonna gap up big time and im gonna lose out on the gains because of this nonsense.
I would look at $VT. If you invest world stock ETF you are going to get more industrials, materials, etc b/c unlike US stocks, world indices lean more to non tech stocks. Plus you still get US tech stocks. Now that is the smart move. If you want to play around w/ 25% then I've been buying gold, $EWY (South Korea), $EWJ (Japan), $IGF (world infrastructure), $TLT (US Treasuries), $XLU (utilities). But $VT might be the best if you are looking to diversify now.
Bond etfs. TLT is up 1.41% this week, and now 4.35% YTD. I had been using the last few months to DCA my way into it and it might pay off soon.
taking a break from anything other than TLT and SGOV. Managing emotions >> chasing
Why the hell is TLT up today? Inflation came in hot
$TLT has to break thru $92 or I am going to start selling. I have tax lots up to $90.98 still from when we were both buying $TLT before the Trump Pivot last year. I am anticipating having a windfall of cash to put somewhere from the sale of those $TLT shares w/i next 2 weeks so I've been speeding up my stocks & ETF's purchases. If $TLT breaks thru I have more than enough cash to use instead of selling $TLT.
Damn, up 6% on TLT, XLV, XLU. Its like defensive positioning is a thing. Weird that bonds continue to take the inflation in stride though...something must be deflationary in the 8-12 month term (provided a rug pull isnt imminent) equation...AI, layoffs, midterms, tariffs ending maybe. Big money is putting volume into that narrative.
someone explain to my dumbass why TLT can rise on hot PPI?
WMT, TLT, NFLX propping up the port today
its times like these that i am reminded why i invest in VXUS and TLT.
Ironically I don't even think this is a chatGPT post like all the others. The others have bolded words, questions like "The conclusion?", etc. This one doesn't even have an em-dash, just a regular dash. Plus there's lowercase words like "Safe havens (GLD gold, TLT bonds) if flight to quality", like what sentence is that, chatGPT would never write that
TLT getting pumped when PPI came in hot. Make is make sense.
TLT is up on bad inflation data. The "logic" of this market is the opposite of what it's done most of the past decade
TLT telling the bols to run for the hills. That PP better be good
I have been experimenting with wheeling on companies I want to own. I like companies with reasonable dividends, low valuation, and outside the spotlight of being chased. Anytime I realize enough profit on a company, I use it to buy one share on the house. Until then, I park shares in BIL or SGOV until assignment; otherwise my port is basically "oops, all TLT"
Depends. They'll dump hard if we suddenly pull out of this tailspin and break SPY 700 in theory. Last time we were seeing bond market action like this I think was October/November. On the other hand, who bloody knows if we do have a market correction. Last time, bonds strangely plummeted with everything else. Typically, bonds go up if people flee to safety. TLT is at pretty historic lows though so if they are about to start their trek back up finally the payout is pretty good for a theoretically low risk asset. I tend to just do ibonds and intermediate bond ETFs since long bonds have flown in the face of a low-risk asset in the last several decades.
SGOV is about 3.6% so there are better places to hold money that 3.3%. I also have some cash in VCIT that earns \~4.75%, or TLT earns \~4.65%. There are lots of market options for different time frames...
TLT on a mission... ^(to start a recession)
"Defensives" aren't even defensive at this point. Buying Reits, utilities, consumer staples, and most likely TLT at these prices is basically signing up to lose $$$
1 day of holding SK Hynix will give you better return than TLT will manage for the rest of 2026. Fuck Treasuries and its puny upside until the government acts competent and balances its budget/inflationary pressure.
Check out those TLT calls now. Even though TLT is higher now than last week, the calls are going for 0.59 when they were 0.80. IV on the calls has done nothing but go down since I started my DCA (because of course they have).
It's only been 2 months but let's add another asset that is outperforming both the $SPY and $QQQ YTD despite being trashed here. $SPY + 0.52% $QQQ -(1.43%) $TLT + 3.41%
10 year yield dropping TLT rising Equities dropping
TLT out performing all the indices YTD lol
TLT trying so hard to go green today
10-4 will do. I find it odd that only those of us chasing momentum in non reddit tech names are gonna get burned when you all are still buying the same names that lost momentum are going down daily. $TLT and Gold are my largest holdings. My $EWY holdings are less than my holdings in Deere & Co and Halliburton. People can invest in 2 different sectors at once. I can walk & chew gum at the same time.
The calls are red again today even with TLT green. Looks like the IV on them is just evaporating ever since I started my position of course. TLT I started buying the calls at 0.78 LAST WEEK when TLT was the same price it is now and now the ask is 0.61. Classic. Fuck this nonsense lmao
My TLT short calls are in danger
well TLT give back quit a bit EOD as equities rebound. Honestly we are still range bound and chopping in equity, we didnt really make any significant lows still within range of last weeks lows and 6800 area of resistance for SP500. So i dont think it is the catalyst i was looking for to trigger a big rotation
the shares are looking fine but im getting fucked on the calls. No idea whats happening. Friday TLT went down 0.18 yet the calls went down 0.10 even though its a 0.15 delta. Today TLT went up 0.33 yet the calls only went up 0.02 even though its a 0.15 delta. Expected move of the last 2 trading days is a 0.025 increase in the calls yet they are down 0.07, even though the MOVE index is flat over the 2 days. And its a 7 month expiry so 2 days shouldnt impact time value much. So yeah, no idea why the calls are losing so much value based on the greeks, other than the explanation of its a position of mine so it has to get fucked in some Truman show style attack on my positions -_-
I am mildly surprised that TLT is up today. Thought it would dump when China came back but hey. Took a scratch loss on some puts but the dividend should cover it. I also have a new covered call on Sony. So, let the wheel begin.
Yeah me too. Unfortunately the TLT gains and hedge is covering nothing compared to the eose drill to 0 job
There is a very good possibility you are correct. But I like to hedge my port. $TLT, $PHYS (GOLD) make up roughly 50% of my port. $EWJ, $EWY, $XLU and $IGF make up roughly 25%. Then individual stocks that are non tech make up last 25%. $EWY could be cut in half and it wouldn't really hurt my overall port. South Korea AI stocks are a hedge in case I am wrong about AI and it is the financial game changer that many believe it is. I would just rather buy the non hype non US AI stocks vs US AI over hyped bubble stocks.
TLT and GLD pumping today are we seeing a huge flight to safety 🤔
TBH VGLT/TLT are at pretty historic lows even after that 2.5% or whatever it is pump. And even r/bonds has kind of lost faith in them. Seems like a good counter-sentiment play.
Yes $TLT is my hedge for a recession and Gold is my hedge for inflation & economic expansion.
I'm sleeping pretty soundly with $TLT, GOLD, $EWY, and $EWJ as my largest holdings and a bunch of boring commodity & industrial stocks like $HAL, $MOS, $OXY, $AGCO, $DE, and $CAT to round out my port. It's my belief that the market is replacing the US 10 yr with Gold as the world's reserve currency. This explains gold 2x over the last 2 years and it's continuous bull run higher. The market is also repricing physical cap ex heavy asset stocks higher and repricing low cap ex data/bytes stocks lower. Foreign countries & investors are selling their US Big tech stocks & USD to stimulate their domestic economies whose companies are usually more industrial, manufacturing, and financial Vs US high reliance on Silicon Valley. This explains foreign stocks outperforming the $SPY for over a year now. Investors are also paying a premium for stocks in industries that seem more free from disruption from AI. $CAT and $DE for example aren't likely to be disrupted by AI until AI can plant & harvest crops or build a data center. We had a similar cycle b/w 2002-2012 after the internet infrastructure boom & bust.
You can break that rule if you play your cards like CITADEL and add hedging factor into your wheel strategy.. markets crash bonds increase.. so what does that mean? Cut your profit target 30% hedging it with TLT, VIXY,SH on the down side along with your favored stocks/ETFs on the upper side.
I'm buying TLT you bitches. Bonds have bottomed.
The 3 mo chart on $TLT still looks pretty bullish. The fact that rates didn't spike after that inflation print is pretty good for $TLT holders.
Stick to TLT & ZROZ
I have long dated calls on TLT. TLT is down 0.18 today and my calls are down 0.10 even though they are 0.15 Delta. lmao. Today blows
Sept TLT 100 Calls are down 30% from Tuesday morning when I brought them up and said I was gonna start DCAing into them. TLT got rejected at resistance, and how now gone back and tested 2 seperate untested supports on very high volume. If you want a hedge uncorrelated to SPY/QQQ, seriously look into the long dated TLT Calls. Their VIX ( MOVE INDEX) has dropped a lot the last 3 days and they are super cheap
Look overseas. The rest of the world is going to start running USA type deficits. I mentioned I've been buying $EWJ and $EWY. Europe & Asia have more of an industrial, financial, and manufacturing economy than tech. This is why I believe $DE and $CAT have broken out. It's not just datacenters. Gold is the world reserve currency now, not US 10 yrs. I say this with way too much $TLT in my port.
Why the fuck would TLT dump with tariffs being struck down lol.
There are key levels to watch in the 10 & 30yr. When the US threatened to confiscate Greenland (by force) the 30yr hit 4.95% before pulling back. How to position? Long short term US treasuries like SGOV while reducing exposure/shorting the long end TLT (20 yr).
Any mass damage to TLT through a tail event will hurt stocks a lot more than TLT. Not to mention them being OTM means that my max loss is very minimal.
The default might happen halfway, being caught by stabilization attempts and/or by made up stats and promises/lies. I was hinting at a significant drop in TLT value in case of such an event.