Reddit Posts
Oi, get on the car. The market took a sharp dive.
Options Trading Question about strike prices
Everything there is to know in premarket 29.01. Including positioning analysis of GOOGL NVDA and AAPL
Oxy is the most undervalued company based on FCF yield on EV in the market right now.
AAPL: earning this week. Can it make 200+ before that?
$PYPL Ad: Six innovations that will revolutionize commerce
XR products launched in CES 2024, technology IP innovation is expected to achieve a value leap
Came here to find my dumpster for the week.
Wall Street Newsletter S03E06: All-time highs are here. What's next?
Vision Pro’s coming. What are your AAPL moves??
MSFT has now overtaken AAPL in market cap.
what did they say about "An AAPL a day" again
What stocks(s) did y’all buy recently and when was it?
Apple’s MR headset mass production started, Meta creates XR + AI innovative virtual office experience
Apple’s MR headset mass production started, Meta creates XR + AI innovative virtual office experience
Offsetting Previous Losses While Continuing to Invest for the Future
Everything to watch and expect for the trading week ahead, including expectations and analysis around AAPL, TSLA, and RETAIL SALES data.
Everything I'm Watching going into the trading week, including expectations around TESLA, AAPL and SPX Call Resistance at 4800.
AAPL, TSLA, NVDA: What positioning looks like for the short term. Analysis of the option market
AAPL, TSLA, NVDA: What positioning data tells us to expect for price action in Short term.
An Exploration of Analyst Ratings and Stock Market Bias
An Exploration of Analyst Ratings and Stock Market Bias
Is it normal for the index funds to be weighted this heavily by mega caps?
Google, Amazon, and Unity are among the tech companies implementing layoffs to start 2024
What Company Do You Think Is Least Likely to be Doing “Insider Trading”?
TSMC posts flat Q4 revenue but beats expectations
Generative AI drives innovation：There will be more emerging growth opportunities in 2024
Generative AI drives innovation：There will be more emerging growth opportunities in 2024
Apple releases a multimodal LLM model, WIMI AI tech became the AGI mainstream trend
Apple releases a multimodal LLM model, WIMI AI tech became the AGI mainstream trend
Somebody’s iPhone survived a 16000-foot fall completely undamaged. Calls on AAPL
AAPL lags again in premarket after another downgrade in the week. Note: I am holding AAPL and bought more on Tuesday after the 1st downgrade.
AAPL lags again in premarket after another downgrade in the week. Note: I am holding AAPL and bought more on Tuesday after the 1st downgrade
[News] A January "rout" in megacap tech stocks this month is now the Wall Street consensus, according to the BofA equity team.
[NEWS] A January "rout" in megacap tech stocks this month is now the Wall Street consensus, according to the BofA equity team.
The Efficient market theory; Points, counterpoints, discussion.
Okay Portfolio Going Into 2024? [23 YOLD Looking for long term investments]
Deciding REITS for my portfolio. But lack the confidence in knowing how to valuate each choice.
[News] Apple downgraded to underweight by Barclays. This comes as they warn of cooling iPhone demand. Price target at 160, 17% below Spot.
Everything I'm watching in premarket 02/01. Keep an eye on AAPL for intraday trading (if you trade actively), down 2% in premarket at time of writing.
A complete summary of everything I'm watching/Expecting in premarket today 02/01. Keep an eye on AAPL.
If you had $40k to invest right now, what would you do with it?
Buying AAPL $125 Put since it obviously rejected $200
Seeking Advice on Reallocating Tech Stock Profits to IRA: Long-Term Gains vs. Retirement Planning
I am an ex-prop trader and these are the stocks on my watchlist (12/28)
Airpods pro has futuristic sound quality. #AAPL calls
$INTC Israels : 3.2Billion for a Western Worlds TSM. And that ASML NM Machine. 5nm, 3nm, 2nm coming. No More Taiwan TSM China Fear.
The global communications industry has ushered in a new technological revolution
Mentions
Let’s do a quick and dirty back of the envelope scoping evaluation. Assuming your account is at Schwab. You have 100K and assuming it has 70K in buying power (BP). (This assumes that the maintenance requirement for your stocks is 30%,) It is not good to use all of this BP so we will use only 50% or 35K. Now look at the BP requirement for AAPL The Feb 13 AAPL 235 put requires 2700 in BP. Do this for every stock in your list.
$META -21% off ATH’s $MSFT -16% off ATH’s $NVDA -13% off ATH’s $TSLA -11% off ATH’s $AAPL -10% off ATH’s $AMZN -6% off ATH’s $GOOG at ATH’s
GOOG’s New Gemini partnership with AAPL and Walmart will see Billions of additional income! Berkshire’s stake at Alphabet grew to over $5Billion.
I’m not a huge AAPL believer, but $1B?! Yaaaaawwwwwn.
I want to gently pump the brakes on your definition of "Conservative." You are proposing a strategy that is **3.5x Leveraged** ($100k long stocks + $250k notional short puts = $350k exposure on $100k equity). This works fine in a bull market, but here is the mechanic you are missing regarding the "Worst Case" scenario: **Correlation Risk & The Double Whammy.** **1. The "Safety" Flaw** You listed Apple, MSFT, NVDA, NFLX, and SPY. These are not diversified. They are all high-beta Tech/Market proxies. In a market crash, the correlation between these assets goes to 1.0. They will all drop together. **2. The Liquidation Mechanics (Answering your specific question)** You asked what happens if you get assigned. Here is the math of a 20% market correction: * **Your Collateral Drops:** Your existing $100k in stocks drops to **$80k**. * **Your Liability Explodes:** Your $250k in puts are now Deep ITM. You are assigned stock that is worth only $200k, but you pay $250k for it. That is a **$50k realized loss**. * **The Result:** * Start Equity: $100k. * Less Portfolio Drop: -$20k. * Less Put Loss: -$50k. * **Remaining Equity: $30k.** * **New Margin Loan:** \~$250k (to buy the assigned stock). * **Total Position Value:** \~$280k. You now have **$30k of Equity controlling $280k of stock.** That is roughly **10% Equity.** Most brokers (Reg T) require 25% to 50% maintenance margin overnight. Even Portfolio Margin usually requires 15%. **The Consequence:** The broker will not wait for you to deposit cash. Their risk algorithm will auto-liquidate. They will sell your long-term holds (AAPL, MSFT) and the newly assigned stock indiscriminately until your leverage ratio is back in line. **My Advice:** Do not confuse "Probability of Profit" (high win rate) with "Risk" (severity of loss). Selling 2.5x leverage in naked puts on high-beta tech is aggressive, not conservative. If you want to sleep at night, keep your notional value closer to your actual liquidation value.
Big Tech % down from ATH $MSFT ~13% off ATH $AAPL ~10% off ATH $AMZN ~6% off ATH $META ~20% off ATH $GOOGL at / near ATH $NFLX ~33% off ATH $NVDA ~10% off ATH
SCOTUS WILL STRIKE DOWN THE TARIFFS TOMORROW AND MY AAPL CALLS WILL PRINT! - Thank you for your attention on this matter!
S&P 500 up 84% over 5 years AAPL 100% GOOG 290% 290*0.35 approx 100.
How are stocks any different from bitcoin. There's no actual fundamentals backing anything it's just memes like TSLA and AAPL (AAPL 35 P/E with no revenue growth)
Oh the live stream guy also have a YouTube channel by the way, look up AAPL bottom jeans.
AAPL. A little beaten up but a nice moat and growing market share with sticky user base. 17 is selling like hot cakes.
$AAPL pump EOD on tarrif news?
AAPL doing a stock buyback in realtime. No one buying that shit
I sold AAPL on a loss, then it rips, LMAOOOOOO
Why didn’t I cut AAPL at the open, fml
I like MSFT and AAPL This is not investing advice
Yes invest in AAPL, NVDA if you want guaranteed return because their market share is pretty solid. Invest in higher growth stocks for better returns
AAPL x GOOG is too op regards have plot armor
AAPL cannot possibly fall to zero. If AAPL's market cap were zero, its phone sales would be zero.
AAPL puts for earnings looking tasty
Anyone know why MSFT and AAPL our dearly beloved tech giants are slow beeding
This is much better info than the usual Reddit opinions and vibes, thanks for this. Given your outlook, what’s your position in AAPL? I haven’t owned it since last fall, but always watching for a new entry
AAPL can’t decide if it should behave like Meta or Google
NVDA and AAPL racing to zero
Consumer overall is doing fantastic. Bank earnings already showing retard ber is wrong, yet again. JPM net charge offs super low, actually better than same period prior year: https://i.imgur.com/nSv7InK.png Even auto loans, improved vs. last year: https://i.imgur.com/bZIA2L3.png JPM earnings also looks a lot worse than it really is from the AAPL card portfolio one-time charge. Otherwise results look fantastic 💪. They are 2017 Warriors of capital management.
It's not a powerful run by any stretch. There's no "whoosh" move that we often see when a market breaks to ATH after a 3 month consolidation. Importantly, NASDAQ 100 is lagging S&P 500 and this is typically not what a healthy rally looks like. Stocks like AAPL are in clear breakdown patterns, NVDA cannot get out of its range. On the other hand, semiconductors are on fire, and some stocks are staging successful breakouts. I agree, something doesn't feel right, but odds still favor continued upside, especially if QQQ breaks to new all-time highs soon. If SPY cannot hold 687 I'll start to get much more cautious and consider that the action we are seeing here is a bull trap. But if we keep grinding higher, the benefit of the doubt must go to the bulls.
let's add context to those CapEx numbers. Here's the full picture with TTM data (through Q3 2025): **Mag 7 CapEx Ranking (TTM):** | Rank | Ticker | CapEx (TTM) | OCF (TTM) | FCF (TTM) | CapEx/OCF | Business Model | |:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| | 1 | AMZN | $120.1B | $130.7B | $10.6B | **92%** | AWS + logistics | | 2 | GOOGL | $77.9B | $151.4B | $73.6B | 51% | Data centers for AI | | 3 | MSFT | $69.0B | $147.0B | $78.0B | 47% | Azure + AI infrastructure | | 4 | META | $62.7B | $107.6B | $44.8B | 58% | AI, VR, data centers | | 5 | AAPL | $12.7B | $111.5B | $98.8B | **11%** | Asset-light (outsourced mfg) | | 6 | TSLA | $8.9B | $15.7B | $6.8B | 57% | Gigafactories + charging | | 7 | NVDA | $5.8B | $83.2B | $77.3B | **7%** | Fabless (TSMC makes chips) | **Who's Getting Bang for Buck?** **Best:** **NVDA** and **AAPL** - NVDA spends $5.8B, generates $77.3B FCF = **13.3x FCF/CapEx ratio**. They're fabless, so TSMC bears the capital burden. - AAPL spends $12.7B, generates $98.8B FCF = **7.8x ratio**. Outsourced manufacturing = capital efficiency. **Middle:** **MSFT** and **GOOGL** - Both spending heavily on AI data centers (~50% of OCF). This is a land grab—if AI scales, the ROI is massive. If AI fades, they're stuck with depreciating assets. **Worst:** **AMZN** - Spending $120B (92% of OCF!) on logistics + AWS. This is a **low-margin, high-CapEx** business. FCF is only $10.6B after CapEx. If AWS slows, AMZN is in trouble. **Your Question - "Is this for data centers?"** **AMZN:** 60% logistics (warehouses, trucks, planes), 40% AWS data centers. **GOOGL/MSFT/META:** 80-90% data centers (AI training, cloud compute). **Investment Implications:** - **If you believe AI scales:** GOOGL/MSFT are building moats (CapEx now = market share later). - **If you're skeptical:** AAPL/NVDA are safer (capital-light, generate cash without heavy reinvestment). - **AMZN is a red flag:** $120B CapEx for $10B FCF is unsustainable. They need AWS to accelerate or retail margins to improve. **Bull (for CapEx-heavy):** AI infrastructure = future monopoly **Bear:** Overbuilding, excess capacity, low ROI on $500B cumulative spend My ranking: **NVDA > AAPL > MSFT > GOOGL > META > TSLA > AMZN** (on capital efficiency).
"Apple Intelligence" outsourcing to Google is a massive narrative shift, but let's check if fundamentals support your thesis: **GOOGL vs AAPL - TTM Comparison:** | Metric | GOOGL | AAPL | |--------|-------|------| | Market Cap | $3.97T | $3.83T | | YTD Return | +73.4% | +6.4% | | P/E Ratio | 32.0x | 34.6x | | FCF Yield | 1.9% | 2.6% | | ROE | 35.0% | 164.0% | | Analyst Rating | Buy (67/81 analysts) | Buy (67/109 analysts) | **Your Thesis - Reality Check:** 1. **"GOOGL owns AI for entire mobile world"** - TRUE. Gemini powering iOS Siri (rumored $1B+ deal) gives Google data moat + revenue from both platforms. But... Apple historically pays for services (see $20B/year to Google for search). This isn't new; it's scale. 2. **"Apple Services margins take a hit"** - MAYBE. Apple's Services segment has 71% gross margins. Even a $1-2B Gemini tax is ~1-2% of Services revenue ($85B TTM). Not material unless usage explodes. 3. **"GOOGL calls for iPhone 17 cycle"** - DATA SAYS YES. GOOGL is up 73% YTD vs AAPL's 6%. Market already sees this. But GOOGL trades at P/E 32x (slight discount to AAPL's 35x), so some room left. **Reality:** - AAPL is NOT just a "luxury hardware wrapper." Services + Ecosystem lock-in = 164% ROE (highest of Mag 7). They're a cash-printing machine. - GOOGL benefits from AI dominance, but faces antitrust risk (DOJ search monopoly case). **Trade:** GOOGL momentum looks strong (+73% YTD), but I'd ladder in vs YOLO calls. For AAPL puts, you're betting against $99B FCF/year and 164% ROE—gutsy. **Bull GOOGL:** AI infrastructure leader, data moat, cheaper than AAPL on P/E **Bear AAPL:** Services growth slowing, AI outsourced, China risk I'd play a **paired trade** (long GOOGL, underweight AAPL) rather than naked puts on Cook's ego.
Turned an old iPhone into a dedicated mp3 playa. Surprised Timothy Apple lets you manually manage music without signing in or creating a new account. They push AAPL Music subscriptions so much, it’s nice to be left the fukc alone.
AAPL will still be down 0.3%
Great way to ensure you keep your money and sanity. I have sister. She's married with a kid so she spends her money on diapers. p.s. OP is right about the K-shaped economy, but a better choice for that play is AXP, LVMUY, DAL, AAPL, TPR, or BLK. Most of those have ran up massively already. One quick google search shows that Aritzia is Canadian which immediately means it's a meme and OP is just shilling his own book.
Will AAPL see $270 anytime soon? For the love of god it’s moving like a snail even when the rest of the market rips. Praying for an ER run up or these calls are cooked 🙏
META is the next NVIDIA. Which is the next AAPL. Which is the next GOOG. Which is the next META.
$3M+ in single-leg, opening-position puts just hit $AAPL targeting the 1/30 expiry at the $260 strike My Feb puts 😊
Dropped $1800 in the last couple minutes, WTF AAPL
AAPL is a real piece of shit
Forgot I was day trade restricted on RH and bought a bunch of GOOGL calls on the dip this morning after the AAPL news. Paniced for no reason and tried to sell when they went red for a bit but RH said I'd get banned from trading for 90 days if I did. Now I'm +$2k LMAO thanks RH
AAPL goes down to 260, bounces around there for a week or so and then begins its climb back up on its way to earnings report. Classic pattern. Get your calls now boys.
The entire market green. Even fuckin AAPL is green. META? Fucking down nearly 1%. Because why the fuck not. I'm balls deep in the one MAG7 stock that shits the bed week after fucking week. Fuck my goddamn life dude.
So when are AAPL an MSFT going to go on historic runs? Both dead in the water for a full year
AAPL back to 270 by Friday
PUTS on AAPL. Gemini is such a garbage LLM that hallucinates like crazy.
AAPL what will it take to actually move jeez
AAPL green? Did I wake up in a parallel universe?
!banBet $AAPL 274 7d
$AAPL going to $300 by March
AAPL won the ai race by doing nothing. Tim cooked
Managed to average down on my AAPL calls this morning on the dip, and got out with $500 profit, risking $30k. Not touching this pos for a while.
I see it as a win-win. AAPL basically just saved themselves years and tens (likely hundreds) of Billions in Capex by avoiding the AI rat race that MSFT, AMZN GOOG, META, OpenAI etc are swept up in, while still having access to the best AI models for future Siri. Obviously it's bullish for GOOG, especially if they can keep renewing this agreement at higher prices, and now basically every smartphone is now natively defaulted to Gemini and all of that data flowing to GOOG for training will only help Gemini in the long run.
It’s mutually beneficial, AAPL doesn’t have to waste a trillion dollars and GOOG can actually sell to somebody. The circus keeps going
They haven’t switched the AAPL algo to buy yet, but seems like good news
Is this better for AAPL or GOOGL? I’m leaning toward it being better for AAPL since they haven’t had a real horse in the AI chat bot race and you’re going to want one integrated with your phone.
sorry mybad, I meant to say the news that made it pump it's 4t for the first time yes \--- I remember reading about AAPL gemini already, maybe it was just a rumor at the time and not official the pump is already gone and it's back into the red, idk what to tell you
AAPL is a fucking disaster. So much selling pressure, every single pop just gets sold into the dirt.
All the benefits of AI without all the cap ex spending this is why Tim Apple is the greatest steward of capital ever. AAPL headed to 300
"APPLE $AAPL PICKS GOOGLE’S $GOOGL GEMINI TO RUN AI-POWERED SIRI COMING THIS YEAR - CNBC" lol OpenAI hits keep coming
$AAPL - APPLE PICKS GOOGLE’S GEMINI TO RUN AI-POWERED SIRI COMING THIS YEAR - CNBC Google 4t
Is anyone else balls deep in AAPL disappointment? Was hoping for a run into ER 😔
This might be too soon, but I can appreciate AAPL not dying right now.
AAPL is truly dead, can't even pump on a vomit inducing shrek Green Day
Sold AAPL 259 Cost basis 258.9 Took profit 😀
I'd recommend a company with solid fundamentals that your kid has already heard of, maybe like AAPL or GOOG. If you bought them something they've never heard of like MU or NVDA they wouldn't care about it as much.
"MAG7 stocks with highest weight in AMZN" This has become such a crowded default option for people and with everything going on elsewhere in tech I don't know why Mag 7 has become "collect em all" vs the one or two that someone has the strongest thesis for. I'd rather #2 out of your options - although I'm not crazy about VRT. I did very well with VRT starting at the end of 2023 but "market is basically just the mag 7 right now anyway." META, MSFT, AMZN and AAPL underperformed the S and P over the last year. WMT outperformed all four of these names in the last year.
Buying AMZN and AAPL
$AAPL, you must go up!
I don't give a shit what the market will do tomorrow, the only important thing is that $AAPL will go up
Fuck. Maybe AAPL will actually go up for a change.
AMZN MSFT AVGO and AAPL dying
I’ve been loading up on META and NVDA lately. I want to start stacking some AAPL as it looks pretty juicy at these prices.
Do I go all In AAPL calls tomorrow or do I wait it out ... hmmm
I just need AAPL to moon
>when you “buy” a stock, you are really just putting money into essentially a giant pool. When you “buy” a stock on the app, Robinhood purchases the stock and holds it for your account but it really belongs to robinhood. I mean sort of, but this is every brokerage on earth So when I go out and buy 100 shares of say AAPL stock on schwab/vangaurd/fidelity ; and lets say I hold for years, AAPL won't know sirglass owns 100 shares. Those 100 shares are registered to schwab my brokerage. Now this is not some conspiracy, its simply easier to keep track of like 5000 odd brokerage houses vs 3 billion individual investors However this is only in registration , you own the shares, like schwab cannot take the shares away from you, schwab creditors cannot lay claim to the shares or anything like that, if schwab gets in some sort of finacial trouble it cannot take your 100 shares of AAPL and sell them to pay its bills They are not IOUs like some people claim . Now for RH they are a registered and regulated brokerage they have SIPC coverage like almost every USA based brokerage. So they won't "steal" you shares or something. However RH has intentionally gamified its brokerage and uses nudges to try to make you trade, and it large part it works RH customers trade much more frequently then customers with other brokerages, and from nearyly every single study on earth , on average the more you trade, the worse you do. Now you can say "Yea but I won't trade I will just buy on hold bla bla bla" however just remember RH business model works, people on RH do infact trade a lot more than average. So can you really just ignore all their nudges ?
TSLA 10 shares, PLTR 31, META 11.01, AAPL 41.05, AMZN 39, GOOGL 48.04, MSFT 26.04, NVDA 10, ETFs VXUS 63.31, VOO 15.04, VGK 187.49. Total portfolio \~98k, up \~20% overall. I know it’s tech heavy, that’s intentional, ETFs are my stability layer. Biggest winners have been TSLA and GOOGL, META and MSFT lagging. Would you rebalance into more defensives or small value, or keep riding mega cap and let the ETF exposure smooth volatility? Also, for international, is VXUS + VGK redundant or a reasonable tilt?
I subscribed to Motley Fool for a few years. Got lucky as they recommended AAPL, NFLX, NVDA, GOOG pre-2008 crash. Also a lot of stuff that didn’t work so well. Chasing options, day trading - that never worked for me. Long -term low-expense indexing did, and does, the heavy lifting for me.
No. Now it's just a tool to manipula... i mean "balance" the indices so that they close at whatever level it needs to close. Just like gae AAPL is at times. Great times to sell tail risk on NVDA. sell 7 days or less out. do look to the right AND the left before you pick those pennies.
I’m stuck deciding between HIMS, AMZN, AAPL, MU or LULU Calls.
For some reason (see explanation below) I have a good feeling about AAPL in the coming weeks. The reason I feel that way is because I'm a retard.
Honestly 6 weeks + a bull-ish tape is basically the best-case backtest, so I wouldn’t get too attached to the +4% yet. The allocation looks like “default Reddit core portfolio + a little crypto,” which isn’t *bad*, but the overlap (VTI + QQQ + AAPL/MSFT) means you’re kinda doubling down on the same thing and calling it diversification. If you like the AI angle, I think tools like Prospero are better for quick context and risk flags, but the actual portfolio construction still needs you to set tighter rules around concentration and rebalancing.
Maggy 7's 2026 YTD: $AMZN +6.98% $GOOG +3.51% $MSFT -1.07% $META -1.51% $NVDA -2.57% $TSLA -2.71% $AAPL -4.71% And for reference: $SPY +1.24% $QQQ +1.09%
This might be one of the worst takes of all time. Yes, AAPL is paying Google $1B for Gemini aided functions for Siri. In the meantime, since DOJ cleared the two companies for their contract with putting GOOG as default search in iOS, GOOG will continue to pay AAPL upwards of $30B annually!!! $1B is chump change. And on top of that, the ruling basically allows AAPL to cut similar deals with OAI, Anthropic, etc. Just to prove your dumb point is factually dumb, the AAPL $1B payment for Gemini functions is like 3 months old. AAPL has moved up in a straight line (until last few days) subsequent to that deal. I can't believe the ignorance on this board sometimes.
To AAPL shareholders from 14 years ago, I declare you can retire now.
Thank you AAPL. I shorted it all week right through this morning. I enjoyed our time together. Call me
AMZN, GOOG, MSFT make sense because majority of the capex is for compute that is sold. Meta is the odd one out. They need to recoup this via ads and I think that won’t work out. It’s the same play as the “metaverse” where they even changed the name of the company. Outcome of that has been minimal and flatline revenue. Expect the exact same outcome with AI for Meta. NVDA and AAPL get the best bang for their bucks. TSLA is a meme.
Market chatter is heating up today as Apple Inc. (AAPL) becomes the center of attention across trading desks. According to speculative buzz circulating online, billions of dollars could pour into Apple stock before today’s market close. Traders are closely watching price action, unusual volume patterns, and end-of-day positioning that some claim may indicate aggressive buying interest. Social media discussions and message boards are lighting up with theories about late-session inflows, institutional positioning, and potential catalysts driving demand. If such a scenario were to occur, it would mark one of the most notable end-of-day capital movements in recent sessions — reinforcing Apple’s reputation as a magnet for large-scale investment activity. As always, market participants are advised to monitor developments closely as the closing bell approaches.