AAPL

natures3

AAPL is the misunderstood play. $350 EOY

Valkyrie_Skuld

AAPL is usually down before earnings in my experience but I tune out a lot of narrative. I’ve seen too many bs explanations to trust hype without numbers. And something is always challenging iPhone how many times have you seen “uh oh iPhone competition” and it ultimately never matters

Maximum_Fuel9138

The active-vs-core split is the right framework, most retail blowups happen when those two get collapsed into one book, either by trading the compounding positions or sizing trades like long-term holds. Keeping them isolated is the discipline almost no one builds. One small reframe, though: the edge isn't *ignoring* the data, it's matching the data to the time horizon. A swing read answers "is this a buy this week?" A long-horizon read answers "is the thesis still intact?" Those are different questions. The 11-year AAPL holder wasn't ignoring data, they were trusting a different kind of data: franchise quality, capital return, the ecosystem moat. That thesis didn't change in five-day windows; the swing score did. Both can be right at the same time. That's why the engine has separate swing and investment timelines in the first place. The investment view (16 dimensions) is closer to a "core compounding book" question: Does management still allocate capital well? Is the moat intact, does regulatory risk threaten the thesis? The swing view (8 dimensions) is asking something narrower, is positioning bullish, does the technical setup support entry, what's the options flow saying. So I'd put it this way: the +1,090% receipt isn't proof that the data was wrong. It's proof that the right data answered the right question. The mistake isn't using data, it's using the wrong data for the question you're actually asking.

vermilli21

META up, GOOGL up, AMZN down, AAPL down...SPY remains flat

ryanyuan4005

*One thing I keep seeing in this thread is exactly what frustrates me too — LLMs don't have real-time data, they hallucinate numbers, and there's no single place that gives you the full picture (financials, technicals, insider activity, market context) alongside an actual AI analysis.*                                                                                   *So I built something to solve this for myself. It's called* [*https://aphelion.markets*](https://aphelion.markets) *— it pulls live data from multiple sources (earnings, balance sheets, RSI/MACD/Bollinger, insider trading, institutional ownership, sector trends, futures) and feeds all of it into LLM to generate a structured 0-100 score across fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment. Everything is transparent — you can see the raw data behind every score.* *Full disclosure: this is still very early stage. I'm cold-starting and it's far from perfect. TSLA and AAPL are completely free without sign-up, and you get 20 more free analyses after registering. My honest suggestion — use up the free quota first, don't rush into paying. Kick the tires, see if it's actually useful for your workflow.*                                                                                                                                                *If you have feedback or ideas on what's missing, I'd genuinely love to hear it. Building this mostly based on what I wish existed as an investor myself.*

fuckyoursweater-

I was leaning towards AAPL too. I’m so interested to see how the market reacts after earnings on Wednesday. Who knows, the sky might actually be falling this time

Valkyrie_Skuld

AAPL. Last time the market was trash so i waited until the day before and bought shares but also sold csps. But I was being overly cautious. That being said - and maybe I’ll be wrong this year - aapl is somewhat cyclical. I would still be cautious. AMZN misses earnings more frequently and when it does it’s a fucking shitshow and real damn annoying. Small miss and the market reacts like the world is ending.

SignificanceNo3295

AAPL, I need to buy the dip on AMZN

fuckyoursweater-

Gun to your head: AAPL or AMZN?

amanj41

IMO AAPL, so probably not AAPL

E39_CBX

AAPL or GOOGL calls which is better pick for ER?

E39_CBX

Higher conviction on GOOGL or AAPL?

E39_CBX

GOOGL or AAPL calls?

Mathguy200

If AAPL doesn’t slam $275+ tomorrow I’m gonna lose it

E39_CBX

AAPL calls too obvious

E39_CBX

All in AAPL June 290c

Rude_Assistance_4386

I always knew AAPL stans were crazy they but if this is true it's next level

E39_CBX

Something tells me last earnings before Tim leaves AAPL will be big

E39_CBX

VM thoughts on AAPL?

E39_CBX

AAPL 280c or META 750c? 14dte or so

Thunder141

These corporations' products and services are valuable regardless of the value of a dollar. People are going to want Iphones regardless of the dollar being worthless. If the nobody in the world is interested in MSFT, AAPL or AMZN we are probably in Mad Max territory.

Valkyrie_Skuld

AAPL just goes down every spring and up every winter it’s just what it does

Oldschoolhype2

Finally a little movement on AAPL. 

TestingLifeThrow1z

AAPL when announce VR pods to live good life in the pods with AI.

Think-Cobbler-8797

Buy AAPL. Neo gonna send earnings flying

Mathguy200

Whoever the fuck is just holding AAPL down rn… fuck you

Oldschoolhype2

AAPL dump AH then just sits. Disgusting.

Burtonwurton

Dont let OpenAI punk you AAPL.

ZealousidealGrab1827

AAPL not liking this new CEO. Only one Tim Apple.

Numerous_Priority_61

In 2016 total investments were $6,500. I was 32. Full time high school teacher. Then I started a photography business. It grew quickly, I still teach and started maxing all retirement accounts and investments accounts I could. Teacher income is still around 100k. Business gross is around 300k/year. But only keep around 200k. Also these numbers would be a whole lot better but I sold off about $200k worth of stock in 2022 to buy the vacation house, daughter was 7 at the time and wanted her to have it for the next 10 years so now most of my disposable income goes to paying down that mortgage. SEP IRA for the business, Roth, 403B (teacher). Palantir was a good bet, turned about $38,000 into $600,000. Other than that just regular investing for 10 years and my net worth is up to 2.6m and investments sit around 1.7. Rest of net worth is primary residence and a vacation residence. The most important step is to do research, read as many books as you can. Then just set it and forget it as much as you can afford to. During the Covid crash I plowed every extra dollar I could scavenge into the markets and then we've basically been on a rocketship since. There will be another major crash at some point in the next few years, maybe this oil shock or stagflation or something. But it is quite literally impossible to time the market, you can try to outsmart it but you will get burned, then you will finally realize it. So just pick a few stocks that interest you and really follow them. That's how I found PLTR and that was easily the biggest difference maker in the portfolio. Others are mostly AAPL/GOOG/Costco/ the regulars.

Devastaytah

AAPL pls fly

likeabosstroll

!banbet AAPL 280 4d

Oldschoolhype2

AAPL please wake up.

Burtonwurton

Market creep up, AAPL creep down. Just fucking great.

Mathguy200

AAPL can suck my left nut ^(unless it hits $290 post earnings)

Necessary_Ad_9800

Now it’s just AAPL that has to wake f up

Mathguy200

AAPL needs to take the tension out of the slingshot on all these motherfuckers and hit an ATH so I can stop getting day drunk

HaveAKlondike

AAPL calls

rowdygentleman

Current positions, opened this morning: - AAPL 6/18 $310C - CVX 6/18 $200C - F 6/18 $13C - GOOG 6/18 $375C - NVDA 6/18 $210C - QCOM 6/18 $160C - SOFI 6/18 $20C

Fluffy_Logic_01

Just me and my 10,000 shares of AAPL going into earning week like ... I am about to be the next INTC kid (Remember that time when it dropped to 20..)!

imustbegthequestion

Watching the AAPL news drip... 😂

Concept-Plastic

AAPL ??

Burtonwurton

So you are telling me that these pussy institutions are scared that Scarecrow Altman is gonna take any kind of market share from AAPL. Fuck outta here with that nonsense.

Burtonwurton

Even fucking TSLA is recovering from lows while AAPL sitting in the corning touching itself.

Mathguy200

How the fuck is AAPL beat this far down? What the fuck

Burtonwurton

I had two choices this morning. Either MSFT or AAPL play for earnings...Of course I picked AAPL. Such is life.

Burtonwurton

Doing Tim AAPL real dirty.

Yonderbeyonder

AAPL entry here?

Burtonwurton

God damn it AAPL, if you were feeling extra fruity today, you should of said something before I bought.

Burtonwurton

Sorry I bought AAPL. Its me, Hi, Im the problem its me.

Mathguy200

AAPL $280 about to come in hot

Burtonwurton

Oh AAPL you little gay boy.

StonedTurtle420710

I swear people forget this used to be $3000+ a share and was forced to forward split. People are so bullish for TSLA after their split, nah… o think GOOG hits $1000+ before any bigger market cap like MSFT AAPL or AMZN, hell, even AMZN was forced to stock split too, it also was $3000+ a share back in the day. AMZN and GOOG will always keep climbing, they carry the QQQ and SPY on their backs.

Oldschoolhype2

So I go full 🐻 on NVDA and get destroyed. Theb I try to be bullish on AAPL and now am also getting destroyed. I cant win in the scamsino. 

shindiggaa

AAPL needs to release a new iPod or something 

Oldschoolhype2

AAPL keep going 🙏

Comfortable-Sky7801

Bought the dips on AMD, AAPL, MSFT. Decent day so far. Hoping TSM goes red again. Maybe I’d like to get in on the MU train again as well.

Oldschoolhype2

AAPL earning April 30th. Anyone playing?

Oldschoolhype2

Im gonna need AAPL to do something mmkay

Mathguy200

AAPL get ur fucking bitch ass in the green NOW

ComprehensiveLog9414

AAPL red at open into calls?

DAMNCitymAAdKid

Some no-name irrelevant nerd announces a phone and tanks a 4 trillion company like AAPL. Welcome to the Casino

Burtonwurton

Lol so Scam Cuckman wants to release a phone so AAPL is down. That is the dumbest shit I have ever heard.

Oldschoolhype2

AAPL the only software company with cult members. Theyve gotta pump at some point. . . . right?...

Oldschoolhype2

AAPL pls go up

imustbegthequestion

Morning all. To the idiot who was attempting to debate me on AAPL's future, 10-20 years, yeh. You have no idea what you're talking about. This pre-market means little, but y'all love graphs, red, and green. Bon chance.

Comfortable-Sky7801

Just bought some GOOG, AAPL, MSFT while theyre flat/discounted.

Mathguy200

AAPL better start ripping fucking lines and getting its way to $280

Comfortable-Sky7801

AAPL on a nice little discount, I might buy a dozen shares

Mathguy200

Damn you AAPL

Necessary_Ad_9800

Srsly why is AAPL down premarket?

codespyder

Me with my AAPL calls

marketpulsebot

This might be the heaviest earnings week I've ever seen. 4 of the Mag 7 on Wednesday alone - GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT - then AAPL Thursday. Plus the Fed decision same day. I'm keeping my positions light until we see how MSFT's cloud numbers look. What's everyone watching most closely?

Necessary_Ad_9800

AAPL

Pretty-Statement6758

AAPL did a great decision to wait what happens with this AI hype. Trillions dollars in AI market but so far only some rumors but not much tangible. YEs, ai is future, moving forward but its not gonna bring a real profit for many years. not sure whether earnings are up or down, but im watching. If dips like 15-20%, Im in. Im ready to invest 10K 200-210, which brings down PE like mid 20'. SaaS blowout will eventually work favor for companies those will survive and add ai features into business. AI is a tool, like internet, its not gonna solve real work tasks but enhances workflow.

Ceyenne18

AAPL and NFLX are red

robotlasagna

AAPL revenue per employee is \~ the same as META. Why does APPL have a PE of 34 vs METAs 23? Like I said lots of people make arguments like this but it has to make sense. If you look at revenue per employee across lots of businesses it shows no real correlation to PE. But also if RDDT's revenue per employee is lower than META's then it only means they can make even more money as they grow and get more efficient.

Necessary_Ad_9800

AAPL ez

accretive_exchange

If u have conviction, u stay the course unless something materially changes… watched my father do this with several stocks… my cost position on AAPL is/was $0.35/share from way back in 2000… still own >70% of originally purchased shares

dedgecko

You buy AAPL on the near-annual 15-25 percent dip that’s driven by Gurman and analysts AAPL-related FUD. Sometimes is more, sometimes it’s less. The buyback will keep covering your gains, unless you’re looking for greater gains. Been an AAPL buyer following this since 2016 and I’m comfortable with my slow-growing portfolio.

teh_herper

AAPL or MSFT calls

TeachUPython

AAPL $295-$300 EOW. Get ready

Deep-Bench-2016

Four reports in 24 hours on Wednesday is not a "pick the winner" setup — it's a "find the divergence" setup. Here's how I'd frame what to actually watch: 1. Capex guide vs. cloud rev growth. MSFT, GOOGL, and META all guided $80-100B+ capex for FY26. If any of them lifts the capex number AND keeps cloud accelerating, that's the bull case re-stamping itself. If capex ticks up but cloud growth flattens, that's the first crack — they're spending into a slowing demand curve. 2. AWS operating margin direction. AWS margin has been the swing factor for AMZN three quarters running. If margin is flat or down with rev growth above 18%, that's actually fine — they're investing. If margin is up but rev decelerates, that's cost-cutting masking demand softness, which is the worse setup. 3. Meta's Reality Labs loss vs. ad rev growth ratio. Reality Labs lost \~$17B last year. If ad rev growth is decelerating AND RL losses are widening, the stock is going to take a different reaction than the "bulls love everything" setup the last few prints have produced. 4. Apple is the loneliest report. AAPL doesn't have an AI capex story to ride, so it has to win on services margin and iPhone unit cycles. The bar is highest there because AAPL has been flat-to-down YTD while the rest ripped. Honest take: the easy money on this print cycle was already made in the run-up. The interesting trades come Friday morning, after we see which of these four diverges from the others. Sector beta gets you to the print; idiosyncratic moves come after it.

Actual_Difference617

AAPL can’t even predict the word I am typing correctly, I don’t know how they could even make the LLM.

bobby992992

i know what you're going to do this week. i've watched it for ten years. https://preview.redd.it/sluic627lkxg1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=31d3a3de51b93c37ddbf076bca50af362daf71c3 [](https://preview.redd.it/fomc-4-mag-7-earnings-in-24-hours-here-is-exactly-how-each-v0-9mqjvoglkkxg1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c713d6898dd08da0a91792ef085fbb280507e2ec) monday: you buy QQQ puts because it "looks toppy." tuesday: NQ grinds up another 0.4%. you average down on the puts. "this can't keep going." wednesday 1:55pm: you YOLO 0DTE calls 5 minutes before powell speaks because "the dovish pivot is priced in." 2:01pm: powell says one boring word. NQ rips 200 points. your puts go to zero. 2:04pm: NQ reverses 300 points. your calls go to zero too. 2:06pm: somehow you lost money on BOTH sides of the trade. thursday: you post the loss porn. it gets 4k upvotes. friday: you do it again with rent money. every. single. time. \--- let me explain something to the regards in the back. NQ closed friday at 27,440. that is an ALL TIME HIGH. the chart printed higher highs and higher lows for 5 sessions in a row. the trend has been up for 18 months. and a third of you are about to short it because "intel was up 23% in one day, that's unsustainable." brother. the market has been unsustainable since march 2009. you have been wrong for 16 years. you will be wrong this week too. \--- here is the actual setup if you can read past the crayons. new ATH zone: 27,440 to 27,500 1st support: 27,100 to 27,200 breakout retest: 26,900 to 27,000 bull: hold 27,200, clear 27,500, run to 27,800 bear: lose 27,000 before wednesday, dump to 26,800 chop: pin in a 240 point box until powell talks. classic. \--- THIS WEEK YOU FACE tuesday: case-shiller, consumer confidence (nobody cares) wednesday: FOMC 2pm, powell press 2:30, MSFT + GOOGL + META + AMZN all dump earnings after close thursday: GDP, PCE, jobless claims at 8:30, AAPL after close friday: payrolls if we're unlucky four of the five biggest names in the index report Q1 in the same 24 hours as a fed decision. that has happened maybe ten times in your trading life. ATR will double. options vol is going to vaporize whichever side of the iron condor you're sweating. \--- PREDICTIONS 70% chance powell says "well-positioned" five times. NQ pops 100 points then dumps 200. your 0DTE calls expire worthless and your puts also expire worthless because you held them through the bounce. 20% chance one of MSFT GOOGL META AMZN misses on AI capex guidance. NQ futures dump 400 points after-hours. you don't even have a position because you got stopped out earlier in the day on the 1 minute chart. 10% chance everything beats. NQ goes to 27,800. you watch from cash because you blew your account tuesday on 0DTE TSLA puts. \--- this is not financial advice. this is me explaining to you that wednesday at 2pm is not a buying opportunity. it is a kill zone. stop trading 90 minutes before FOMC. stop buying 0DTE calls 5 minutes before powell. stop adding to puts at the literal all time high. your wife's boyfriend already knows this. that's why he's the one driving the new car. \--- positions: cash. like an adult.

JonRadian

I will happily baghold AAPL. AI training->AI interence/agentic-> ?killer app. I believe AAPL is in as good position as any to benefit from the AI killer app phase.

TeachUPython

AAPL $295

Maximum_Fuel9138

Worth flagging this is 3 days old, which is meaningful given what's happened in markets since. The S&P had one of its top-20 single days in history this week, NVDA closed past $5T market cap, and the entire mega-cap stack got upgraded across the board. That said, Breeden's call isn't crazy, and the data partially agree with her. On Haruspex's investment-horizon scoring (the long-view register, not tactical), the Mag 7 are all still bullish-buy: AAPL 68, MSFT 70, NVDA 72, AMZN 72, GOOGL 72, META 66, TSLA 65. So the engine isn't reading "too high" the way she is. But here's where her warning has teeth. NVDA's us\_china\_official dimension dropped −11 today, us\_china\_unofficial dropped −25. AAPL's US-China dimensions both sit at 35. The scoring is upgrading the AI buildout case while *downgrading* the geopolitical case in the same session. That's the gap a central banker would notice, equity markets are pricing the upside, not the tail risk. Bear case here isn't "stocks are too high" in the abstract. It's "stocks are pricing the bull case while ignoring the geopolitical risk that's actively rising." Breeden's right that the tape isn't fully pricing the risk; the data just disagrees that valuations are unsupported. Both views can be coherent.

Necessary_Ad_9800

Thoughts on AAPL?

Potential_Salt_5780

Their services will make up for the margin hit. Also Chinese sales are way up. My bet is Apple will crush earnings but once again be very conservative about its future earnings. The stock will take at least a 5% haircut immediately. It will start going up again in to WWDC and the stock will move depending on what they announce. Typically AAPL rallies into the last few months of the year. So you want to wait and see what happens during earnings call then buy on the dip, sell near the end of the year.

tre6123

the supply squeeze thesis is real but imo the more interesting trade is watching how AAPL guidance lands and then fading the relief rally if it comes.. margin compression doesn't show up in one quarter, it creeps

Fun_Pay_992

This is actually a really well-thought-out take. The chip shortage angle on Apple is something most people are completely sleeping on right now. The TSMC contract point is solid — Apple's been protected by long-term agreements but that buffer won't last forever. And you're right that they don't have the AI revenue cushion that Microsoft or Google has to absorb margin compression. The one thing I'd push back on slightly — Apple's services revenue has been carrying a lot of weight lately. Even if hardware margins take a hit, services could soften the blow more than people expect. But overall — guidance is going to be the real story on April 30. If they get conservative on forward guidance given macro uncertainty and tariff exposure, the stock's going to get punished regardless of how clean the quarter looks. Been watching AAPL for a while too. Cautiously agree with your 1-3 year outlook.

imustbegthequestion

The behind the scenes of GOOG and AMZN are quite interesting. I think the last thing I heard about AAPL was some like new CEO or something.

Sick0h

Also how did this go strictly to AAPL? All the companies have found multiple new revenue stream ma repeatedly.

Sad_Star9007

I get that. I still run sw that's win only, but earnings focus is on growth, not treading water. Copilot uptake has been bad by their own admission. AAPL, especially in smaller orgs, making some gains. And buyouts/layoffs depend on context; announcing right before earnings could be a tell they're trying to get ahead of bad news. Azure growth might be good, but it might also be all OpenAI with MSFT carrying heavy capex.

Sick0h

Imagine going hur dur AAPL flat and missing it, then hur dur GOOG flat and missing it, then going hur dur AMZN flat and missing it.

Hocari-

BE, MSFT, QCOM, AAPL calls

Mathguy200

AAPL is far behind ATH compared to the rest and broader market…

JohanLiebert92

If I buy calls for MSFT, META, AMZN and AAPL on Monday to expire on Friday, how unlucky would I have to be to actually come out with a loss?

MtGloomy0420

Yup and that’s why you should enter $NOW. Just like $NFLX at $80ish, $QCOM at $130, $AAPL at $250, and $MSFT at $380. Oh yeah and $TXN at $150. All were said to be jokes here. I told y’all to go fuck off. Looks like value is relative and perceptions are not perspectives.