ACV
AllianzGI Diversified Income & Convertible Fund
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Using regression analysis to forecast sales in a SAaS firm?
ACV Auctions tons of upside. Likely to be purchased by KAR or CoX automotive.
Rand Capital (RAND) severely undervalued?
Rand Capital ($RAND) Owns Major Position in ACV Auctions ($ACVA) not recognized in its current NAV. Low volume stock perfect to trade.
Rand Capital ($RAND) BDC Holds Major Block of Recent IPO ACV Auctions ($ACVA) - Stock Substantially Undervalued
16 companies are planned to go public this week and a bunch of SPACs (22 Mar - 26 Mar)
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Will Marshall has covered this across the last couple of earnings calls. I get the skepticism but the business model pivot is worth paying attention to. The key insight is that on sovereign deals the countries front the CapEx for the satellites. Planet Labs builds them then gets paid to administer and service them on an ongoing basis. It’s a platform model. You can see this playing out with JSAT then Germany and now Sweden. Will has made clear they are actively and aggressively pursuing sovereign deals right now and the pipeline is maturing. I think we realistically see 5 to 6 close this year and the real thesis hinge point will be FY2027 guidance. Given that Planet is essentially the only proven provider at scale in this space they are the prime call for any sovereign nation looking to move quickly on space-based ISR capability. The ongoing Iran conflict is also accelerating that demand. Government contracts are also stickier than commercial ones. Recurring ACV sits at 97% of their total book of business and net dollar retention is at 109% meaning existing customers are expanding their contracts over time. Here’s the math: even 10 JSAT-sized deals at $200M each is $2 billion flowing into backlog. Roughly 37% of that revenue is recognized upfront with the remainder paid out over the following couple of years depending on deal size. And once the satellites are up and running the OpEx to maintain them is relatively low which means the ongoing service revenue is largely high margin. No competitor can replicate this quickly. Anyone trying to ramp to even 200 satellites today is looking at a massive timeline. Add a decade-plus of proprietary imagery that makes their AI analytics untouchable and I think Planet Labs has a moat that others don’t have. That’s where my thinking lies.
It's way more than that, but ok. Switching costs may be lower, ACV will be lower with the ability to code lightweight plugins or integrations without work-for-hire and maintenance agreements, less headcount is potentially lower per seat licenses, SMBs and small enterprises can likely get away with something for much less. It goes on an on. Even if you disagree with me, you're better off waiting it out to see what happens for 12 - 24 months.
Cope. Cheng and CRM have already explicitly noted use of lightweight tools hurting ACV.
Really like what I'm seeing with NOW. RPO accelerated for the first time since 2023 and is outpacing revenue growth. GP% did shrink but OI% expanded. Customers with an ACV >$5MM accelerated in 2025, gross retention has been 98% for 8 straight years now. It's not cheap by any metric but it's also trading at the cheapest P/S and P/GP in a decade and cheapest P/FCF since they became consistently FCF positive. Same for P/E. Optimized for FCF margin (40%), they just need to grow on the topline by 9% annually over the next decade to justify today's price. I opened 3/5 of a full position this morning at $115.39/sh. I left some room to add and will likely do so if it keeps slipping. If it bounces, I'll watch over the next few quarters and decide if the headwinds are overblown and is worth making a full position.
yes, focusing on bads of software doesn't matter, if a company decide to buy it, than that's it and it stick with it. it says reasonable Forward P/E (27.03) and PEG (1.35). also Atlassian's 300,000+ customers and 80% Fortune 500 penetration it says that reflect its freemium-to-enterprise model. Enterprise represents only \~10% of revenue (per FY25 data), meaning most customers are lower-ARPU SMBs/mid-market. This creates resilient, diversified revenue but slower ARPU growth compared to pure enterprise peers. I see that many hates servicenow $now also, from another SAAS niche. this one, has \~8,400 customers and 85% Fortune 500 (slightly above Atlassian), fewer total customers but far higher ACV (e.g., 528 >$1M deals). ServiceNow (85%) lead - and Salesforce (90%)! - in Fortune 500 depth, signaling premium trust and higher margins. Atlassian (80%) balances this with massive scale. All saas is down, but receiving buy ratings recently. e.g. UBS on $now, who reports on 8 jan. $hubs looks good too, it looks yoy eps+28.9%
>Copilot’s answer My highest‑conviction sub‑$50B pick for 2026: GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ: GFS) Thesis (one‑liner): A specialty semiconductor foundry with improving margins, strong cash generation, and multi‑year U.S./EU capacity build‑outs that directly benefit from re‑shoring and AI/automotive demand—yet the stock is still down year‑over‑year and well below prior highs. >Deepseek’s answer: 🎯 Two Analyst-Picked Small-Cap Ideas for 2026 1. Opera Limited (OPRA) · Market Cap: ~$1.28 billion · Thesis: The Norway-based browser company is seen as well-positioned for long-term secular growth in digital advertising. Analyst Eric Sheridan notes it has "sustained double-digit % growth" potential, driven by product innovation in AI, commerce, and gaming. Despite strong fundamentals, the stock was down 20% year-to-date at the time of the report due to investor preference for larger companies, presenting a potential opportunity. · Recent Performance: The stock had underperformed, creating what the analyst called an "asymmetric idea". 2. ACV Auctions (ACVA) · Market Cap: ~$1.42 billion · Thesis: This online wholesale vehicle marketplace is leveraged to the long-term shift of auto sales from offline to digital. Goldman's thesis highlights ACV's potential for territory expansion, increasing customer wallet share, and product innovation driven by AI. The stock faced short-term headwinds, with its price down significantly for the year. · Recent Performance: The stock declined following a reduction in its annual revenue guidance. >grok’s answer Lululemon Athletica (LULU) stands as my highest conviction stock pick under $50B market cap for 2026 that hasn't run up yet. Market Cap — ~$25 billion (as of late 2025 data). 2025 Performance — The stock dropped about 50% due to temporary headwinds: product missteps, softer North American sales, and a CEO transition. It lagged the broader market rally, which focused on AI and large-cap tech. >qwen’s answer conclusion:%20Highest%20Conviction%20%3C50B%20Pick%20for%202026**%0A%0A**Arcellx%20(ACLX)**%20uniquely%20checks%20every%20box%3A%0A%E2%9C%85%20%3C$50B%20market%20cap%20%20%0A%E2%9C%85%20%3C50%25%20YOY%20gain%20in%202025%20%20%0A%E2%9C%85%20Clear,%20high-impact%202026%20catalyst%20(PDUFA)%20%20%0A%E2%9C%85%20Best-in-class%20technology%20with%20a%20wide%20moat%20%20%0A%E2%9C%85%20Massive%20TAM%20expansion%20beyond%20myeloma%20%20%0A%E2%9C%85%20Strong%20balance%20sheet%20&%20management%20%20%0A%E2%9C%85%20Asymmetric%20risk/reward%0A%0AIf%20you%E2%80%99re%20looking%20for%20a%20**catalyst-driven,%20under-the-radar%20biotech**%20with%20blockbuster%20potential%20that%20*hasn%E2%80%99t*%20been%20bid%20up%20by%20momentum%20traders,%20**ACLX%20is%20the%20highest-conviction%20idea**%20for%202026.
Negative Points The company faced market headwinds, with dealer wholesale price depreciation tracking above normal seasonal patterns. ACV Auctions Inc (NYSE:ACVA) had to lower its exposure to higher-risk customer segments due to the bankruptcy of a former customer, Tricolor. The company experienced increased arbitration costs within a specific cohort of customers, which are expected to remain elevated in Q4. ACV Auctions Inc (NYSE:ACVA) adjusted its Q4 revenue forecast to reflect a more challenging market environment, expecting a decline in dealer wholesale market. The company is facing pressure from competitors, with the emergence of a potential second major competitor in the market.
Positive Points ACV Auctions Inc (NYSE:ACVA) reported record revenue of $200 million for Q3 2025, marking a 16% year-over-year growth. The company achieved a 10% year-over-year growth in vehicle sales, selling 218,000 vehicles despite challenging market conditions. ACV Auctions Inc (NYSE:ACVA) expanded its dealer network, reaching over 10,000 sellers and 14,000 buyers transacting in its marketplace. The company reported strong growth in emerging regions like Southern California and the Midwest, with unit growth exceeding 20% in Q3. ACV Auctions Inc (NYSE:ACVA) continues to leverage AI technology to enhance its marketplace experience, providing accurate pricing guidance and increasing buyer engagement.
$PEGA Q3 Adjusted EPS 30c, consensus 20c Revenue $381.35M, consensus $350.85M. Q3 ACV up 14% year-over-year.
Forgot PEGA posted their ER this morning. Market seems happy. Forgot what user it is, but someone posts about where are the companies making money via AI, well PEGA is one of them. * ***Annual Contract Value (ACV) grows 16% year over year as reported and 14% in constant currency*** * ***Pega Cloud ACV increases 28% year over year as reported and 25% in constant currency*** * ***Pega Cloud backlog increases 30% year over year as reported and 26% in constant currency*** * ***Cash flow from operations and free cash flow grow over 30% year over year*** >“Our unique approach to AI was a key driver of our strong first half results,” said Alan Trefler, Pega founder and CEO. “Pega harnesses AI's creative potential where it can best drive transformation—during workflow design with Pega Blueprint. This drives consistent execution through our state-of-the-art Pega Infinity workflow engine, rather than through inherently unpredictable prompts. Pega’s Predictable AI approach gives enterprises both the innovation they crave and the operational consistency they require.” >“Our first half of 2025 results show what happens when strategy, innovation, and execution come together,” said Pega COO & CFO Ken Stillwell. “Pega Blueprint is a game-changer for AI-driven enterprise transformation. Our disciplined focus on Rule of 40 principles is fueling both accelerated growth and margin expansion. We are more aligned, more energized, and more effective than ever.”
Sold my Kohls Cash earlier I’m betting the next meme stonk is Back Room Casting Couch (BRCC Coffee) Just did an offering to mitigate cash concerns and have an energy drink out that has a high ACV already BROS P/S is like 6X and Back Room Casting Couch’s is below 1X
You got the wrong company my dude. It's PEGA, not SEGA. From their last earnings: [https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PEGA/pega-gen-ai-powers-accelerated-q1-2025-9g00z57htqdj.html](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PEGA/pega-gen-ai-powers-accelerated-q1-2025-9g00z57htqdj.html) * ***Operating cash flow grows to*** **$204** ***million and free cash flow grows to $202 million in Q1 2025*** * ***Annual Contract Value (ACV) growth exceeds*** **13%** ***year over year*** * ***Pega Cloud ACV grows 23% year over year*** * ***Backlog grows 21% year over year*** >Pega GenAI has dramatically transformed how we engage with our clients,” said Alan Trefler, Pega founder and CEO. “Pega solutions and our approach to AI enables clients to accelerate progress in reaching their digital and legacy transformation goals.”
I think it depends. There is some nuance there. I do agree with you and I think the concern is with the VC's and the junk they are investing in. Stuff like Windsurf/Cursor. There's a ton of just bad junk out there. However, there are real companies making real money off some of the LLM's and just general demand for ML/AI in companies. For example with $PEGA: [https://www.pega.com/about/news/press-releases/pega-genai-powers-accelerated-q1-2025-results](https://www.pega.com/about/news/press-releases/pega-genai-powers-accelerated-q1-2025-results) >“Pega GenAI has dramatically transformed how we engage with our clients,” said Alan Trefler, Pega founder and CEO. “Pega solutions and our approach to AI enables clients to accelerate progress in reaching their digital and legacy transformation goals.” >“We accelerated ACV growth and delivered record free cash flow in Q1 2025, reflecting the benefits of the subscription model,” said Pega COO & CFO Ken Stillwell. “Operating as a Rule of 40 company allows us to focus on accelerating profitable growth while thoughtfully returning capital to shareholders.” $IBEX [https://investors.ibex.co/static-files/061b9eab-065a-439e-9e1e-5475aa956ed3](https://investors.ibex.co/static-files/061b9eab-065a-439e-9e1e-5475aa956ed3) >“Ibex returned to double-digit top-line revenue growth with 11%, our highest rate in ten quarters. Our growth continues to be driven by outstanding performance within our embedded base clients, new client wins, and our ability to drive innovative AI solutions across our clients. I am excited to report that our new logo team performed extremely well with four signature wins in the quarter for a total of 12 year to date. Importantly, we achieved a major strategic milestone in the quarter with the seamless launch for a leading Healthcare company in our newest location, India. Operating in this key location has been a strategic priority for our company and further enhances our client delivery options.” That's why I don't think the LLM's will be winners or the wrappers. Even with the Capex spending, there is just a ton of demand for cloud computing. That's why I think there is some nuance around this. If anything, I think quantum computing with the public companies are better example of something being a bubble than just AI.
Are u slow??? Insurance only pays out ACV not RC, and that’s after a deductible. We also can’t forget about the interest. In the end they’re losing a fck ton of money.
Never heard of this company, but what a great quarter: $PEGA Pegasystems Q1 EPS $1.53, consensus 50c Q1 revenue $475.6M, consensus $357.0M. "Pega GenAI has dramatically transformed how we engage with our clients," said Alan Trefler, Pega founder and CEO. "Pega solutions and our approach to AI enables clients to accelerate progress in reaching their digital and legacy transformation goals." "We accelerated ACV growth and delivered record free cash flow in Q1 2025, reflecting the benefits of the subscription model," said Pega COO & CFO Ken Stillwell. "Operating as a Rule of 40 company allows us to focus on accelerating profitable growth while thoughtfully returning capital to shareholders." It is interesting to see some smaller software companies actually getting wins with AI.
Liquidated to 0 ACV basically in February. This seemed obvious enough by then.
Big player in a very very small category. They’ve already started to pull price levers starting from $3.99 to now 3/$5. Their revenue can’t be great if they’re already racing to the bottom on retails to move more product. They’ve also spent a ton of money in trade on perm merch items, influencers and commercials to create this category. I think it’s too expensive for what the category brings to total LRB. PEP service frequencies across all retail channels are declining. There will be a boost from pipeline fill (Poppi only at 65ish ACV) but PEP will not be able to hold on to the IOD/NOD in stores.
nope 02/21/2025 Carvana (CVNA), ACV Auctions (ACVA) and CarGurus (CARG) all showed serious chart damage after generally disappointing guidance in their fourth-quarter reports on Wednesday and Thursday. https://www.investors.com/news/carvana-earnings-carvana-stock-q4-cargurus-carmax-autonation/?src=A00220
Out of your mind if you think this isn’t already happening. I refuse to under-allow below the ACV of my customer’s potential trade-ins at my dealership because I know it’s likely the owner is already getting shafted simply because all of the dealers in our area can see each others pricing and clearly don’t even try to be competitive.
They did say avg ACV of their new ai offerings is the highest of any vertical they have launched already which sounds great, although I would think total sales there are still small vs their main offerings.
# $NOW Q4 EPS $3.67, consensus $3.66 Q4 revenue $2.96B, consensus $2.96B. Reports Q4: "Subscription revenues of $2,866 million in Q4 2024, representing 21% year-over-year growth, 21% in constant currency; Current remaining performance obligations of $10.27 billion as of Q4 2024, representing 19% year-over-year growth, 22% in constant currency; Remaining performance obligations of $22.3 billion as of Q4 2024, representing 23% year-over-year growth, 26% in constant currency; Nearly 500 customers with more than $5 million in ACV, representing 21% year-over-year growth."
ServiceNow reports Q4 EPS $3.67, consensus $3.66 *Reports Q4 revenue $2.96B, consensus $2.96B. Reports Q4: "Subscription revenues of $2,866 million in Q4 2024, representing 21% year-over-year growth, 21% in constant currency; Current remaining performance obligations of $10.27 billion as of Q4 2024, representing 19% year-over-year growth, 22% in constant currency; Remaining performance obligations of $22.3 billion as of Q4 2024, representing 23% year-over-year growth, 26% in constant currency; Nearly 500 customers with more than $5 million in ACV, representing 21% year-over-year growth."*
This is a discussion about PL, not ACV you regarded bot
Summary of Planet Labs’ Q3 FY2025 Earnings: Key Highlights: Revenue Growth: Revenue increased by 11% year-over-year to a record $61.3 million. Strong growth driven by government contracts and new technology commercialization. Profitability Improvements: Gross margin improved significantly to 61% (Non-GAAP: 64%), up from 47% (Non-GAAP: 52%) YoY. Net loss narrowed to $20.1 million, a significant improvement from $38.0 million in Q3 FY2024. Adjusted EBITDA loss was nearly break-even at $0.2 million compared to a $12.0 million loss in the prior year. Path to Profitability: Management reiterated plans to achieve Adjusted EBITDA profitability next quarter. Cash reserves remain strong at $242 million with no debt. Key Metrics: 97% of ACV (Annual Contract Value) was recurring. Customer count grew by 4% YoY to 1,015. Operational Highlights: Major Contracts: Signed multiple high-value deals, including: Eight-figure contract with an international defense customer. Seven-figure pilot with the U.S. Department of Defense. Renewed a significant contract with Brazil’s Federal Police. Innovations: Successfully launched data from the Tanager satellite, including CO2 and methane emissions data. Released new products like AI-powered Forest Carbon Monitoring and Analysis-Ready PlanetScope for time-series analysis. Outlook for Q4 FY2025: Revenue guidance: $61 million to $63 million. Non-GAAP gross margin: 63%-65%. Adjusted EBITDA: $0 to $2 million, indicating profitability on this metric. Continued investments in technology and expansion while maintaining a disciplined approach to cost management. Takeaway: Planet Labs demonstrated significant progress toward profitability, driven by strong recurring revenue, new contract wins, and operational efficiency. The company’s focus on AI-enabled solutions and advanced satellite technology positions it well for sustained growth. However, challenges remain in achieving consistent profitability, particularly on a GAAP basis.
GARP SAAS at 5% fcf yield, lot of $100k ACV customers with decent NRR, concerns are on growth re-accelerating and MSFT competition atm which I am willing to see how it plays out at this valuation.
Here’s my response to this. On the top level—Yes U don’t deny that PLTR is a very special company. The clearance the company has is pretty unique and thus the revenue quality is quite high.My thesis is that right now PLTR is overpriced. The price justifies the stock, not the other way around. 1 Yes and No. I think it’s agreed upon that insider transactions consistently outperform the market whether long or short. The magnitude at which Thiel, the biggest insider by far (owns 10x more than Karp who is at 2nd place) as well as seasoned investor, has been selling should absolutely be a concern. Specifically: “Peter Thiel has sold over $600 million worth of the company’s stock [in October], bringing his total disposals this year to over $1 billion.”. No one in the world has better exit timing than Thiel due to information asymmetry. 2 Microsoft and Amazon have the same clearance and larger contracts than PLTR. Yet on an earnings adjusted basis are much cheaper. Additionally, saying PLTR is different from Nvidia is like saying a BMW M5 is different than a GT3 RS. I mean yes–but one is cheaper than the other for a reason (Nvidia has higher growth, a stronger business model, better margins, better everything). An M5 is a great car just like PLTR is a great business–I (among many others) just wouldn’t pay 200k for it. 3 Not only is revenue retention down, ACV (Average contract value)—another key KPI that I didn’t mention is down as well. You always want to upsell (because customers love you so much) and cross sell customers, making ACV key. This inability reflects on poor leadership and doesn’t bode well for the future prospects of the company. 2nd, you mention the long sales cycle. This is one of PLTR’s biggest issues, which is the fact that their deal velocity is extremely slow. Slow deal velocity means customers with more drawn out problems and less revenue and satisfaction for PLTR. Switching costs is true but it’s a double edged sword–because the process is so intensive the TAM is cut significantly 4 I do agree that margin compression isn’t the strongest point. This is a more temporary compression and why I think they will miss on the bottom line this earnings call. I will say that the GTM strategy hasn’t been proven for this new field (although PLTR’s history has been strong) which poses another risk (Also Amazon and Microsoft have larger and stronger moats in the government space than PLTR) 5 I think people over emphasize government contracts here. It’s sticky, I’ll give you that but it’s less than half of PLTR’s total revenue. Further, on the commercial side, SNOW and Databricks have the EXACT same functionality as PLTR–in fact PLTR builds upon these platforms. Some companies however just don’t have the in-house capability to create foundry-level platforms and they hire PLTR. That is a small percent (300 commercial customers at PLTR vs 10,000 at databricks). 6 My DCF is pricing in future assumptions for growth. To justify 100B MCap, PLTR in 2027-2029 needs to be growing at 30% YoY. That is not happening. To justify a 70-80B market cap, PLTR needs to beat sell-side consensus (that’s higher than management expectations) for the next 5 years by 2%! That’s insane. I do agree if SCS ramps up that poses a risk but that’s a 2027 onwards timeline and my short pitch is on a shorter timeframe.
We need to know how long the average car lasts in inventory. 3.4k is easy money for any used car. Used cars are clipped when they're traded in. Smart used car managers know what it needs when giving the insulting ACV of the used car. If a used car sold at any dealership is sold in the first week it's easily a 4k+ home run.
Don't have any pitches for those 4 in my database. Hurdle Rate pitches a bunch of Australian companies (but haven't seen a recent letter from them). Tauranga Investments pitches SRG.AX, SDV.AX, EVZ.AX. L1 pitched: QAN.AX, CBA.AX Rogue pitched: MSV.AX East 72 pitched: CAT.AX QAN.AX pitch: QAN.AX +10% in July. Well-positioned w/ top loyalty biz (2x earnings in 5-7yrs), new fuel-efficient fleet, Project Sunrise (direct SYD/MEL-LDN/NYC flights from 2026). Strong balance sheet for buybacks/dividends. CEO addressing customer issues. Trades at 6x FY25 P/E despite leading position & high-growth loyalty div. REX entering admin. positive for QAN. CAT.AX pitch: Catapult (CAT.AX): Elite sports tech co. 20% rev growth, 80% GM. Transitioned to SaaS model, now FCF+. 3.5% churn rate. 483 pro teams (11.5% penetration), $24k ACV. Competitive vs Hudl/STATSports. Targeting 5k teams by FY27. 40%+ incremental margins. Key risks: execution, competition. PT based on SaaS metrics & growth. MSV.AX pitch: MSV.AX: Aussie drilling co. benefited from instant write-off program, masking earnings but boosting FCF. High depreciation to normalize, revealing true earnings. 10% buyback, 5% dividend. Chairman pushing shareholder returns. 4-5x upside potential from current price. 6th largest position in fund.
SANTA CLARA, Calif. ‑ July 24, 2024 ‑ ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW), the AI platform for business transformation, today announced financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2024, with subscription revenues of $2,542 million in Q2 2024, representing 23% year‑over‑year growth and 23% in constant currency. “ServiceNow’s elite‑level execution is reflected in our continued outperformance across all topline growth and profitability metrics,” said ServiceNow Chairman and CEO Bill McDermott. “Our relevance as the AI platform for business transformation remains stronger than ever as CEOs are looking for new vectors of growth, simplification, and digitization. ServiceNow intends to reinvent every workflow, in every company, in every industry with GenAI at the core.” As of June 30, 2024, current remaining performance obligations (“cRPO”), contract revenue that will be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months, was $8.78 billion, representing 22% year‑over‑year growth and 22.5% in constant currency. The company now has 1,988 total customers with more than $1 million in annual contract value (“ACV”), representing 15% year‑over‑year growth in customers. Top and Bottom line beats plus a raise on guidance. Flat to Revenue of $2.61 Billion Non GAAP EPS beat of $3.13 vs expected $2.84
$NOW news Guggenheim analysts have downgraded ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) to Sell from Neutral, and set a price target of $640. While the investment firm expects NOW’s 2Q24 results to be satisfactory, they see risks in the second half of 2024, particularly concerning consensus Subscription expectations. Analysts also note that the stock is currently trading at a high valuation of 15x EV/NTM likely recurring revenue, which presents significant downside risk. “NOW seems to be expecting an uptick in GenAI business in the 2H, but our field work indicates this is not likely until 2025, if ever,” analysts said in a note. “Partner checks were generally positive for 2Q, but not as positive as they usually are. Several partners expressed concern about 2H24, especially since GenAI monetization is not happening en masse and is not likely to materialize this year, as management has suggested it would.” Although the company’s US Federal business for ServiceNow remains robust, it is unlikely to provide the same boost in New Annual Contract Value (ACV) seen from the second half of 2022 through the first half of 2023. Moreover, the less mature State, Local, and Education (SLED) markets and foreign government efforts are not expected to compensate for this gap. Based on their fieldwork and analysis of the IT spending environment, along with the anticipated need for increased business momentum in the second half of 2024, analysts believe there is “a material risk that NOW will have to lower top-line subscription guidance for 2024.”
Most policies cover fence losses on ACV ( actual cash value) roofs will be the same soon. These roof payment plans I’ve seen lately will become norm if people can’t save 15k plus for a new roof.
* bad: The $50mm in stock sales in the last 60 days from the CEO/founder. not sure why he did it now before earnings if earnings were going to reflect AI tailwinds -- he still owns a lot though. * good: Their self-hosting is vital for some co's + Google partnership still there (but frankly that was bc goog missed out on github) * bad: Not sure they have anything up their sleeve to expand product suite/innovate beyond their focus on "14 AI features" that Sid (CEO) mentioned 3 times on the last call (there's like barely any chatter about Gitlab Duo anywhere online though) * good: NRR and expansion remains solid esp for >$100k ACV * bad: some glassdoor/twitter/blind/reddit research shows its pretty hard/competitive for gitlab to get new customers and management team (esp the new CRO) is heavily criticized i'm in with a small amount of puts, probably +-10% in either direction due to IV
I'm weighing this earnings too. Main points for me: - bad: The $50mm in stock sales in the last 60 days from the CEO/founder. not sure why he did it now -- he still owns a lot though. - good: Their self-hosting is vital for some co's + Google partnership still there (but frankly that was bc goog missed out on github) - bad: Not sure they have anything up their sleeve to expand product suite/innovate beyond their focus on "14 AI features" that Sid mentioned 3 times on the last call (there's like barely any chatter about Gitlab Duo anywhere online though) - good: NRR and expansion remains solid esp for >$100k ACV I'm leaning a small put position after ESTCs fall (although ESTC had a massive run up. I still think market overcorrected on ESTC and it will bounce back up pretty soon).. Going calls on IOT though, that one's gonna keep running IMO.
Eventually when sales stop you own cars for X, but market say your inventory ACTUAL CASH VALUE or ACV IS X-30%…then cards fall, loans default
ACV Auto Auctions (ACVA) - as the used car market continues to cool, this online auction will certainly suffer more than others.
Imagine thinking Ukraine was given pallets of cash and that amount isn’t the ACV of the military equipment given.
Any of you professional guys working in the automotive space use ACV auctions to buy/sell used cars online?
This is not true. I do these deals all the time. You can trade in the lease and have equity that goes toward a purchase. When you trade it in, you are NOT returning the lease. The dealer is buying it out, and taking it in on trade. So if your lease buyout is $25k, and ACV is $30k, the dealer may give you $28k meaning you have $3k equity and the dealer holds $2k profit on the trade.
The market. Their IRi retail data is ripping…over 187% growth YOY with a 75% ACV, they have plenty of room to keep on expanding into new retailers and even Foodservice…entire energy category is growing as well…
Always lock in profits when your goal is met, just like everyone else said dont get greedy. It's happened to just about all of us at least once ide say. My DD is to be taken with a grain of salt lol especially the 160% upside. Those numbers were from an analyst associated with 'SeekingAlpha' so take what you will from that. Also investorobserver This came out this week I think: Finally, the stock is starting to reflect the value of Confluent (NASDAQ:CFLT) business. I first wrote about the business last December when it was priced at $23.01 with an expected upside of 157%. While the stock was rangebound for 1H23, it has finally inflected, rewarding investors that followed my recommendation at 50% upside so far.... ....Recent results have led me to reiterate my previous recommendation to buy CFLT. The data-in-motion market, which CFLT serves, is becoming an increasingly attractive option for allocating IT resources. Despite being in its infancy, CFLT has enormous growth potential, both among its existing clientele and in as-yet-untapped markets. The rising popularity of generative AI lends credence to this growth potential and may even drive the market forward. The majority of CFLT ACV comes from customers using the company's cloud-based platform. I believe that CFLT's robust growth momentum will be maintained by the ongoing shift towards cloud adoption. I think CFLT has a good chance of succeeding in the long run thanks to a number of factors, such as its popularity among developers, the widespread adoption of Apache Kafka in business, and the robust secular growth drivers in the industry. In regards to their RPO and cRPO: Growth continues to be very strong for CFLT with subscription revenue growing 41% and is now 92% of total revenue. It is crucial to note that key growth indicators continue to point to the continuation of CFLT's growth momentum. Examples include the 35% increase in RPO seen in 1Q23 and the 44% increase in cRPO (which accelerated from the prior quarter).
Yeah, but your roof is covered at ACV (Actual Cash Value) with no replacement cost available right?
Earnings on Celsius next month are going to pump the stock. Celsius is up 180% YOY in retail sales and will continue to expand ACV % with the recent PepsiCo distribution deal…
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Black coffee with no sugar has lots of energy. An avocado has your electrolytes. Ionized salt and ACV water is amazing. Are you putting air in your stomach?
Car loans defaulting isn't bad for anyone besides the person who got their car repossed. There will never be collapse of sub prime auto loans. Here's how it works from start to finish. Joe has bad credit and low income. He needs a car. He does have a job and a workable debt to income ratio cuz he lives with a girlfriend and Joe says she pays all the bills. Dealer knows Joe is lying but so what, gotta sell a car. Ok Joe! Check out this lovely 2015 Nissan Altima with 89k miles! Joe loves it. It's perfect. Dealer knows its perfect for Joe too. So the dealer bought it at auction for $10k. They had to pay auction fees and transport, let's say $500. They have to run it through the shop, needs some new tires, oil change, freon, detail, add $1000. Then they put it on the lot and they also advertise it online. It sits on the lot for 30 days, has a few test drives but nobody buys it. The dealer has a cost to have it sit on the lot (floorplan- a loan to buy all their cars, includes interest). Let's just round way up to make it easy and say between gas for test drives, Floorplan and advertising and one more thing they found they had to replace, a window motor, that's another $500. So total in the car the dealer has $12k. You with me? Joe has awful credit and not much money. Dealer should say ok Joe we will sell it to you for $14k. But that's not how it works in the dealership world. They pull Joe's credit. They submit it to Santander or CAC or Westlake or any awful predatory lender. The lender says sure, we will give Joe a loan! Loans are typically 120% of the actual cash value of the car. They bought it for $10k and put $2k into it and are at $12k. The ACV, cash value, just happens to be $12k in this scenario. In real life the ACV has nothing to do with what the dealer paid or put into it but this is a perfect scenario and very realistic. Bank agrees to give Joe the loan. His max loan amount is $14,400. 120%. But the bank charges a fee! The bank is going to charge the dealer a $400 fee to do this loan. Dealer says ok cool. Congratulations Joe! You get this beautiful red Altima! We just need $2400 down right now. Joe calls his Granny and gets $1400 to add to the $1000 he has already. So now the dealer has $16,800. Minus the bank fee. $16,400. A window of $4,400. Now the dealer is going to go and play with the numbers. Let's make the selling price of it $14k. Selling price and ACV isn't related at all. Between taxes, dealer fees and all that good stuff, add in another 10%. $4,400 window minus $1,400 leaves us at $3,000 profit. Now we are going to do the loan, the bank says Joe gets a 20% interest rate! Holy Moly! Darn Joe, that's bad. The dealer gets to make money off that too. 2%. So they tell Joe, Joe, Congratulations, we got the loan approved! They casually mention his rate is 22%. He doesn't care. All he cares about is the monthly payment. There's an extra $280 for the dealer, that pays the salesmans commission right there. 72 month loan, the total Joe would pay if he paid this off, is $23,518. The total interest on the loan is $10,518. The final cost with his money down and everything is $25,918. On a car that he bought for $14k. On a car the dealer was in for $12k. I won't even get into trade in vehicles, gap order extended warranties, if I did the $3k profit the dealer is at would easily go up to $5k. The bank writes the dealer a check for $13,280. So that's $1,280 in profit, let's subtract the $280 cuz that goes right to the salesman. $1k profit. The down payment was $2400 minus the $400 bank fee, $2,000 for a total of $3k in profit on that deal for the dealer. Dealership is done. Thanks Joe, have a nice day! Bank got $400 and has a potential profit of $10,518 in interest on this loan. Fast forward and Joe has the car for 3 years. He pays perfectly, only puts 10,000 miles a year on it, takes good care of it. In 36 months he's paid $11,759. Some of that is principal, most is interest but regardless, he's paid the bank $11,759 on a loan they paid $13,000 for. The bank is only truly at a loss of $1,214 at this moment. That's it. But, the agreed to loan states they would have made $23,518. So in their eyes they are at a loss of $11,759. Are they reallllly? No. Their actual cash loss is just $1,214. Joe loses his job. And now he's unemployed so he loses his girlfriend too. Awww poor Joe. He can't make his car payment. He's over 30 days late. The bank reviews it and says Joe, you us $11,759. Pay or we will repo! Joe can't pay. Repo man comes to get his Altima. Repo man brings it to his repo yard. Total fees for the repo and storage is $759, to make math easy. It only has to stay there for three days! Joe can't get the money or work it out with the bank within 3 days, so the car is gone forever now for Joe. The car is brought to an auction. The auction writes the repo man his check for $759, thanks, bye repo guy. The auction now possesses the car but bank still owns it. The bank wants $11,759 for it. Of course. Car goes up for auction, it is still in decent condition, reasonable miles, a dealer buys it for $9k. The new dealer who now owns it writes the auction a check for $9500. Auction fees. The auction sends the original bank a check for $9000 minus the $759 repo fees, $8,241. That bank releases the title to the new owner. Well, the bank wanted their whole $11,759. But they got $8,241. They were truly only at a loss of $1,214 cash money. Now they are at a profit of $7,027! They will just accept that and be done with it and Joe will have a repo on his record. If they wanted to be horrible, they could actually sue Joe for the remainder, $4,732. It's not worth it though, lawyers and court would cost well over that amount and Joe doesn't have any money clearly And they made a profit of over $7k. There ya go. That's how sub prime financing works and how dealers and banks make money doing car deals with terrible credit. Defaults and repossessions are actually so great for banks and dealers. Yeah the bank didn't get everything they hoped for with that loan, but they still won, big time! By it being repossed and sold to another dealer, the new dealer can do the exact same thing that just happened to Joe. Even through the exact same bank sometimes. That bank may go ahead and approve a loan on that car and then poor unsuspecting Bad Credit Bob gets it. He follows the same path Joe did with life and once again, the bank makes $7k on it after a 2nd repo. Now they are up about $14,500 on this one car that's truly only worth $10k on a good day! They made a small fortune. Two different dealers made a few grand each. Two repo companies made money. The only way it doesn't go like this is if the car is wrecked, horribly taken care of, lost, stolen....and that happens. Repo is *Great* for the car world. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
Oh and as far as dealer floor plan rates going up....if your floor plan is Next Gear Capital that's also big daddy Cox Auto. They don't HAVE to screw their dealers. But they do and they will because dealers just bend over and take it. Then Cox takes that money from dealers and funnels it into Carvana which is essentially out to destroy the dealership business model as we know it. Real nice Cox, real nice. I hope ACV goes through the roof and Carvana goes bankrupt and Ernie goes to jail forever and Adesa flops too.
I just addressed this on a different thread. Being that Carvana now owns Adesa....that's just a big "hmmm, let's see what happens" at this point to me. I'd love to speculate that Adesa will belly flop and fail and be right due to my burning hatred of Carvana. Here's the thing though, Carvana only owns Adesa on paper, as far as the general public believes. You know who really owns/controls it? Insert evil laugh here. Cox. Yep. F'in Cox auto. How? Once upon a time Carvana was broke broke and Cox said we will have Manheim partner with you! Manheim and Carvana got into a seemingly happy but toxic relationship. Carvana took advantage of Manheim, and didn't contribute much back. Manheim was like why do you do this to me? I love you so much, it's me and you against the dealers, love me back, be good to me, we can be together forever! Carvana was like sure sure, sounds good, I just want to get in your pants and take all your money. Manheim was like okay! So this continued on for a while and there were some big problems, Manheims friends were like whoa bro, you've changed. Manheims tight circle of dealers were saying yo, you're kinda toxic now that you're with Carvana, you act like you don't even care about us anymore. Manheim was like no, no that's not true, I love you guys, it's just that I'm so into Carvana and even though she hates all of you, I have to help her. Please understand. Oh and your dealer fees are raised, your cars go to Carvana first if she wants them, forget arbitration on crap cars and issues, come on guys, we are still cool, I just have to do this right now. Manheims dealer friends were Iike can you believe that dude? The audacity! Doesn't he realize Carvana has and always will be a cheap and easy gold digging w$ore? Pshhhh screw Manheim, we are going to go be friends with ACV! After a while big Daddy Cox steps in to be like ok Manheim, son, listen....Carvana has been hurting you and abusing you. You're not going to marry that tramp, you're going to get back what you can and string her along until she decides to leave you for whoever has a fatter wallet. This is the plan. You convince her to buy Adesa. It looks like she owns it, but come on, we both know she's stupid and too stressed out to run it, so we will run it under her name. Giving us control to the entire auction market besides ACV, who is still kinda small fries in comparison. But watch ACV though because Carvana masquerading as Adesa is still Carvana in many ways and Manheim has proven that they will bend over their dealers and give it to em with no grease if that's what Carvana wants to see. Don't get me wrong, Manheim and Cox aren't going anywhere. I watch millions of dollars run through Manheim like it's nothing. The only thing that can shake them up is a federal lawsuit for creating an anti competitive monopoly in the industry by backdooring the purchase of Adesa via Carvana. But Adesa? It's a wolf in sheeps clothing. It could go either way for a couple years but ultimately it'll go downhill rapidly like Carvana. ACV has a chance to go sky high if they do it right. Will they? Who knows.
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I'm going to disagree with you about it being basically a cheaper house.. They're unfortunately a more expensive "house" in the sense that if you finance, the interest rates are much higher due to it being a manufactured home verses stick/site built. Like double the interest rate you could get on a site built. The insurance is significantly higher! 4-5X the premium you'd pay on a site built home of the same value. They depreciate, period. There is nothing you can do to increase the value on a mobile home other than sell it to someone else who thinks they're basically a house. Most insurance companies stop insuring them on replacement cost policies once they pass 20 years, the rest stop around 30 years and they put them on an ACV or actual cash value policy. So if you pay $175,000 for a 19 year old double wide today and next year you age out, that ACV policy may say it's only worth $50,000.. Guess who has to come up with the extra $125,000 to pay off the mortgage in the event of a total loss??
Yep, I've tried it in combination with salicylic acid and periodical freezing (ACV at night, SA during the day). After a month, it just got too much - I could barely walk at work. IF this latest round is able to get right to the very core, I may use ACV to make sure any remaining viral particles are dead. Also, the shit I've seen looking online for treatment... You ever seen a wart pulled off with rusty pliers? I have
If there isn't a new car to be found, where are they getting the inventory? To your point, they are getting trade ins where you are able to buy a car right. They are buying the same place I am. Manheim, ACV, Adessa, Backlot, Street buys, etc. I buy truck loads out of NY, New Hampshire, Maine for the Midwest at increasing fright costs. PLEASE CONNECT ME WITH JUST ONE OF DEALERS WITH HUNDREDS OF USED CARS CHOPPING PRICES 30%
It happens when you have a open check book and no clue like a lot of company’s ACV should be the stock why is it down is the question 🙋
a) many people sell even if they aren't 'planning' to; things happen. b) its a VERY disconcerting feeling when your largest payment each month goes to something that is worth a lot less than when you bought it. You know that its money down the drain, and even worse its interest on money down the drain. Theres no end in sight at least for another 20+ years. And you can't get out of it, because you'd need a large sum of cash to sell. c) Pray nothing happens to the property. Having to learn about RCV vs ACV when your house burns down and its worth 80% of the mortgage note is a special type of hell.
Well I don’t have a moisture pan but I have a spray bottle of ACV and Apple juiced on deck if I have to spray a fool. 🔫
People don't care when they invest. Either they are wealthy and used to getting their way and just blindly trusted him as he was one of their own. Or they are middle class schmucks who bought in to Melvin funds via their bank's advice. And when things go south they expect their money back. Back in 2008 when a bunch of banks got in trouble and governments ended up squeezing their populations with austerity when they had to bail out their banks. Over here in Belgium there was a problem with French bank Dexia, they had to be bailed out and they had to be bailed out fast because there was this investment called Arcopar which was part of the "investment side" of the Christian Democrat Column (here your insurance, union, and occasionally even your banking can be all part of the same political column with at it's head a political party in the Case of the Christian Democrats CD&V as the party, CM as the medical insurance, ACV as the labor union, and arco group for cooperative banking) Anyway long story short all parts of the Christian column where actively promoting people to invest with arco in "arcopar" and these shares where advertised as safe investments with backing by the government. And When Dexia was about to go tits up arcopar was too and every one of their investors (usually just middle class and working class schmucks who had been told to invest in this by everyone affiliated to anything Christian Democrat) was about to lose all their money, the Belgian government made a shit deal that would Save Dexia make Belgium liable for a lot of potential future debt instead of France when Dexia is in fact a french bank and this way all arco investors got their money back...'The prime minister at the time was the leading man at the Christian democrats which will not surprise you) Only then people who lost money at other banks demanded government step in for them too or for no one at all, and thus that deal fell through also because courts deemed it illegal. Then The government decided they'd pay all the arco investors with tax payer money because they guaranteed arco. But then the EU said: nope, illegal state support! You can back a regular savings account at every bank as a government but not a specific fund. People who invested in that are still trying to get their money back and I think they lost their latest court case. It's kind of funny because the Christian Democrats have to appease these angry people who don't understand about investing and it's risks. So every time there are coalition talks they have to at least pretend like they are demanding an arco solution. ​ Sorry for the wall of text.
Republic bought ACV Enviro from Kinderhook and is buying us ecology. They are exploring waste adjacencies that WM hasn’t even scratched the surface of. Both are great companies, but I see a much better future for RSG at this point.
I been a car dealer/wholesaler for almost 20 years. A new company that is basically a wholesale auction house for used cars has been swallowing market share for the last few years. So when they had their IPO last year, I’d figured I’d throw a couple bucks at it and see what happens. I bought in at $32. In under a year it’s crashed to $11. The whole used car market has been flipped upside down and I’m not sure when or how it’s going to get back to normal. ACV is still growing as a major player in the used car wholesale market and I don’t see them going anywhere anytime soon. My gut says it’s still a good hold for now and when things get back some sort of balance, the stock should take off as the model becomes profitable. But then again, the other part of me thinks I’m a fucking idiot.
ACV Auctions. Getting battered now but great model.
I have family in Eureka/Arcata and visit yearly. It's a beautiful place to visit, but besides the drug issues already mentioned, the area can be cut off from the rest of California due to fires in the surrounding area in the summer. The fog also cuts flights off on a regular basis (I've had to sleep on the floor of SFO multiple times, because of fog at ACV). It's also not near... anything, which contributes to the beauty, but you're not going to get a lot of tourists traveling to/through. I could see it being a nice place to retire, but not somewhere I'd choose to live otherwise (even with immediate family already being there). Who knows? You could be right, but I don't see the area being a "boom town" anytime soon.
Long calls on C3.ai, few takeaways from my research 1. Growth: Good topline and gross margin growth. Ebit less impressive but justified by large S&M investments and hiring 2. Valuation: P/S of around 19 but with 1.03B in cash, strip that away and you have a decent level. Their ACV is around 12m, with 3x expansion on average. 3. Financial health: No debt, 1.03B in cash, and able to fund negativ cash burn for minimum 10 years 4. Management: Proven, hungry, and connected - vital as they mainly target enterprise and governments 5. Narrative: Seems the company suffers from previous irrational exuberance, which propelled it to astronomical valuation which it, of course, couldn't meet. Now the inverse is true, everyone sees faults everywhere. 6. Other factors: Suffered double dip, company and market based dip What's your thoughts?
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12:08 ← V ACVA NO 4G5 (+ ACV Auctions $19.55 → $0.36 (1.81%) Today 1D 1W 1M 3M 1Y 5Y 99 Position Shares 700 Average cost Today's volume 189,632 Market value $13,685.00 Portfolio diversity. Trade ...
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Thanks for the reply. I guess what I'm saying is that they've been around awhile and haven't really innovated. So I think they're playing catch up in existing spaces vs brand new ideas. Just my hunch. They have max ACV so it's there only choice in an already oversaturated category
Having been in tech sales for nearly 10 years at a publicly traded company experiencing massive growth at a global scale, I couldn't disagree with this more. I would be wholly unqualified for PLTR. The "young and hungry" thing is enough to get by in low ACV transactional sales but that alone won't get you anywhere in the enterprise space. You know the secret of legit sales pros? They have a shitload of experience navigating complex, protracted sales cycles *and* they're hungry AF. I don't blame PLTR at all for narrowing their applicant pool.
Try a scalp massaging shampoo brush off Amazon. They work surprisingly well. IIRC one of the Queer Eye guys mentioned mixing apple cider vinegar with water to help with dandruff, but I hate the smell of ACV so I’ve never tried it personally.
To further drive my and /u/ValenTom 's point across and help provide you with some reassurance, here are some excerpts from yesterday's earnings call: >**David Klein** >The thing that I want to be really clear about is, when we're talking about US THC permissibility, we're not waiting, right? So I just want to remind everybody of, how we're approaching this. So first thing we're doing is we're building our US business where we can today meaning CBD where we're, we have the Martha Stewart Brand, which is the number three brand. >We have BioSteel, we have our consumer products, businesses like Storz & Bickel, which is my point I was up 41% year-over-year, getting those routes to market built in the US help us build that infrastructure that we can leverage upon permissibility. So that's the first thing. >The second thing is you point out acreage. So we own 70% of acreage and 20% of TerrAscend. And that gives us a turnkey entry to the US post permissibility. But it also allows those businesses to grow as they can, leading up to permissibility. **So, we have, I think, really strong positioning in the highly populated East Coast markets**, and I see that as being a real tailwind for our partners, because those markets are just beginning to open now. And so we're going to see the power of the capability set behind Acreage and TerrAscend, I think, as those markets open more. >Constellation has a very strong distribution network. We are using that network today. Constellation has really good operational capabilities as evidenced by what might be best-in-class EBITDA margins across CPG. And then we have the CAD2 billion in cash on our balance sheet, right. >So all of those things together, I think, we're just saying that I remain really bullish on US THC permissibility. But even without permissibility, we're doing things today that allow us to be real, significant players in the US THC market post-permissibility. >**I think that our path to profitability isn't based on Canada growth alone**, but it's the success in the US and ramping up our new businesses that we spoke about earlier. **And one of the biggest one is on BioSteel.** And we've talked about that at length in prior calls. But this is a multi-billion dollar sports nutrition category that we're going after. And we're building ACV, as we speak, we're in I think it's over 16,000 doors as we speak. >But I would not dismiss the contribution from Martha and Quatreau, David spoke about how Martha's performing in market terms of brand performance and velocity, Quatreau is still early days, but all signs are positive, that we've got the right product with the right branding with the right flavor profile. >**And we also have new products that are coming to market that we haven't announced yet, but we will be announcing those soon that are really entering markets that are very large tam that virtually have no meaningful competitors in our way with we think, differentiated attributes that will be very competitive.** As previously mentioned, Canopy is entirely focused on the US, and more specifically the US CPG and CBD opportunity something that no other company (LP or MSO) is doing for the time being.
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Nutanix (NTNX) is a leader in the rapidly growing hybrid cloud market and a pioneer in Hyper-Converged Infrastructure (HCI). The company has become deeply undervalued due to stagnant growth during a transition from hardware to subscription software sales and the stock is yet to fully recover. However, this transformation is now largely complete and Nutanix may be on the verge of returning to growth and improving margins. The products Nutanix sells are absolutely state-of-the-art and deliver a high value-add for customers. This is confirmed by Gartner (independent researcher) as it has been leading the Magic Quadrant for HCI for >4 years straight! Customers love Nutanix’s products, which is underscored by an exceptionally high 7-year avg. Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 90 and a very high customer retention ratio of 96%, which has been stable for many years. Having 19,430 customers and adding about 700 net new customers per quarter Nutanix is expected to surpass the 20,000 customers milestone this quarter. The company’s ACV dollar-based net expansion rate stands at >120%, which shows that existing customers are significantly increasing their Nutanix footprint over time. These indicators all point towards a successful transition to subscription software and the potential for a high margin business with reasonable growth. Strong growth rates expected for Nutanix’s core market: Gartner predicts that by 2025, 80% of organizations will be using HCI solutions, doubling from 40% in 2020. The global HCI market is expected to grow from $7.8 billion in 2020 to $27.1 billion by 2025, at an annual rate of 28.1%. In this market, Nutanix essentially shares a duopoly with VMware, in which Nutanix is Leader in Gartner’s 2020 Magic Quadrant for HCI software with approximately 50% market share, followed by competitor VMware. The transition towards subscription revenues: Nutanix went through 3 important transitions since 2018 that impacted the reported revenue growth rate. First from hardware to software, then from license deals to subscription deals, after that from Total Contract Value (TCV) to Annual Contract Value (ACV) in order to lower the avg. contract period, increase renewals and lower discounting. The transition has been in the company’s and investors’ focus for roughly 3 years. Having said that, with 89% of total billings coming from subscription as of the most recent earnings report, the transition now is largely behind us and top-line revenue growth is expected to accelerate going forward. Renewals expected to drive profitability: As Nutanix’s subscription business matures, an increasing percentage of revenue will come from low-cost renewals, leading to lower sales and marketing expenses. Mgmt. believes it can leverage existing sales reps to drive ACV growth without a significant increase in headcount going forward. Renewals are currently only about 10% of TCV, but this will increase significantly going forward as the first big tranche of 3-year deals is about to renew. Low valuation vs. peers: At Nutanix's current share price, which is slightly above $33, Nutanix trades at a $6.9 billion market cap. After netting off the $1.25 billion of cash and $1.04 billion of debt on Nutanix's most recent balance sheet, the company trades at an enterprise value of $6.69 billion. Versus Wall Street's FY22 revenue expectations of $1.50 billion, this is just a 4.5x EV/FY22 revenue multiple. The NTNX bull case in a nutshell: 1) Leading market position with innovative products and high customer satisfaction in an emerging sector 2) Subscription business at 89% of total billings indicating the transition towards subscription is largely completed 3) Accelerating Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from TCV to ACV transition that incentives sales of new products and reduces discounts for long-term contracts 4) Increasing share of renewals leading to more cost efficient revenue generation, basically following Adobe’s recipe for success 5) Nutanix new CEO, who joined the company in 12/2020 from competitor VMware, where he served as COO of Products and Cloud Services, is looking to simplify Nutanix’s go-to-market strategy, has teased product bundling which makes it easier to buy and implement more of the company’s products at once and has implemented steps to cut inflated costs in order to drive profitability 6) Bain involvement with board seats and $750m investment in 08/2020 7) Continued positive revenue revisions: Consensus estimates for calendar 2021 and 2022 had risen c. 3% going into the recent earnings report and another roughly 3% post earnings. Analysts are slowly starting to recognize the revenue wave of renewals and deferred contributions 8) Clear path towards revenue acceleration and profitability, which is not yet fully recognized by investors 9) At slightly above $33 per share, Nutanix trades at just 4.5x EV/FY22 revenue, which is much lower than many of its peers with double-digit EV/revenue multiples 10) Investor Day on June 22, 2021, which might serve as a potential additional catalyst for the stock For several consecutive quarters Nutanix topped consensus estimates, followed by analyst upgrades and positive revenue revisions. Yet the stock is only slowly moving up and still trades at a significant discount vs. peers. All in all, Nutanix is an incredibly attractive long-term investment opportunity thanks to its combination of improving sales execution, category-leading technology in a compelling software space, and deep value with a market cap of only $6.9 billion and trading at just 4.5x EV/FY22 revenue. In my opinion it’s only a matter of time until investors discover the excellence and value-add of Nutanix’s products, its leading market position and strong growth prospects. I’m surprised this hasn’t happened already, but I believe it eventually will!
Interesting observation OP. Do you know what the typical ACV for SentinelOne contracts are? Do they have a lot of F500 companies as their customers?
I'm going to keep buying into $ACVA Its basically an online auction site for dealerships to buy and sell used cars. Demand for used cars is fucking massive right now with people getting back on the road post covid. "Total revenue of $307 to $313 million, an increase of 47% to 50% year over year" "BRIAN SOZZI: Wholesale car auction platform ACV Auctions debuts today over at the NASDAQ. The company saw sales surge 95% last year at $208 million, but did serve up a $41 million net loss as it continues to build out its online platform." "ACV confirmed today that conditions were satisfied for a partial early lock-up release that will occur at the open of trading on May 18, 2021" This right here explains the massive tank in their share price, so I'm not concerned. This company is growing well, and its in its very early stages.
I have a hunch that ACVA (ACV Auctions) crushes earnings tomorrow and pops. KAR auctions announced earnings last week and exploded. Used car prices are at all time highs Bring me to tendie town plz
Calling that ACV crushes earnings tomorrow and pops. KAR announced earnings last week and exploded. Used cars are at an all time high Bring me to tendie town plz
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Sorry Becky but ACV doesn’t cure anything especially not incurable stds 🤣
My friend who put ACV down there for her herpes would not agree with you.
Perhaps checkout some more conservative income CEFs? Or a basket for a bit of diversity? Pimco, Virtus/Allianz, Calamos, Blackrock all are quality, liquid, have consistent, high-yielding (6-10.5%, depending on strategy), monthly payouts. Things like PDI, ACP, ACV, EXD, pTY, CGO, BIT off the top of my head. There are just a few of many strategies to look at and a place to start research iff so inclined. (Be sure to pay attn to current and historical P/NAV and tax implications.) Just my 2c, not financial advice.
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ACV auctions, went up 30% today at its debut
ACV auctions my lads, shit just debuted at 11
ACVA - ACV Auctions with a nice little IPO today
Gonna try this tonight, I’ve never added ACV to bbq sauce before
Fyi. ACV auctions goes public tomorrow. They have revolutionized the online auto dealer auction platform. The business skyrocketed in 2020. This is the carvana for dealers and the future for buying in the automotive industry. Its worth taking a look at Ticker: acva
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