Reddit Posts
What is going on with AXTI? It squeezes every day.
How come all plays that aren’t APRN and AVCT get downvoted to hell
AXTI has a perfect short squeeze set up
Mentions
Anyone playing AXTI earnings? No? Just me? Ok 😔
Anyone playing AXTI? 15% pop today 🤨
AXTI calls are free money. Thank you for your attention to this matter
Muhahahha, I sold 5 covered calls on AXTI, this causing it to skyrocket, and make my other AXTI positions go positive! Totally planned
My Ass-blasting has been cancelled thanks to AXTI
Would've gotten wrecked if it wasn't for AXTI saving my ass! All credit goes to that random DD post
AXTI gonna make me rich
AXTI has had a wild few weeks. It has swung between $17 and $24, multiple times in that span. Buying calls when it dips has been pretty profitable for me, but IV is high. I'm also taking advantage of the high IV by selling cash secured puts. No 0DTE options available for it, but even 2/20 options swing like crazy. The only question is, calls or puts?
AXTI, my beloved ❤️ thank you for saving my ass from all of my absolutely regarded plays
Yet again, AXTI is saving my port 👌
Bro what happened? At 9:50 today, AXTI was like up 15% and now it's down 9% 😭
Ok, wtf AXTI, one moment you were up 5%, the next you're down 5% 😭
Welp, total net loss from SLV for me was ~10k. Could've been worse, but thankfully, AXTI saved my ass.
After being down 9k on my AXTI cash secured puts, I am now +$1,085 🔥 Holding till expiration so I can collect that 18.5k in premium. I sure as hell need it to offset my SLV losses 😭
My best play was locking up like half my money on AXTI cash secured puts. I'm right around breakeven rn, but if I hadn't, I would've lost it all on SLV 💀
Straight fucking line up on AXTI calls 🔥
I forgot how much my port is riding on AXTI. Shares + calls + cash secured puts 💀 I went from being down 5k from SLV calls, to being up 5k 💀
AXTI single handedly saving my port
Lmfao, even AXTI is up. The calls I bought out of desperation yesterday, are printing loool
Maybe I shouldn't have gone so hard into AXTI... Welp, I still have time... Yeah I'll go with that as my cope
Yo AXTI, if you could magically double, that would be nice 💀
I don’t know what possessed me to but 400 shares of AXTI at nearly the top two weeks ago. I suppose they can’t all be winners.
fucking taking a shit kicking on my AXTI shares, oof
If AXTI keeps dumping, I'm going to get calls. Margin called 💀
Sold $INTC puts for $2k profit added $AXTI $POET $LPTH calls #leaps
AXTI fucking me big time right now.
Sold my META shares for a -4k loss, and YOLO'd it into AXTI 31DTE $25 cash secured puts. 18.6k premium collected, on 60k. Going Thetagang on this one 💀
Tough few weeks for my portfolio and my morale. VITL has had essentially 7 weeks of intense selling pressure already and looks like it may fall off a cliff. Tough to understand against their balance sheet and growth prospects. At this point I'm not uber thrilled with my position being so heavy on 4/17 calls I would really like to roll those out a bit if they dont make some serious progress pre earnings. Regardless I'm not folding this- I injected 60k in cash and hit a lucky move on AXTI for 35k so I freed up significant space if things continue to go against me and I need to add on. The selling cant last forever, the business is very healthy and there is a 27% reported short interest which can get squeezed very hard. Even another pity run back to 36 gets me quite profitable and allows me a lot of maneuverability. PYPL also busting my balls but its fine, I sleep real easy with my 2028 calls. I've been accumulating a lot in the last $2 and I hope it stays in the dumps long enough for me to get out of my VITL trade and plow it in at a good price. If there is a good earnings and it somehow makes it to 50, ill deposit another large chunk and and go nuts on a Jan 28 50/85$ call spread. Too much hate and risk:reward is too good. I know yall sick of hearing about these two but too bad. Able_Show troll of the month Some tough weeks behind and probably a couple more ahead too.
There's no guarantee of anything, but I'll tell you what I'm thinking might be it (not 100x of course, but maybe 2x in the near future). 2 companies: AXTI and AMPX. AXTI: they make Indium phosphide substrates, used for manufacturing semiconductor chips. The past year, it has been on a massive bull run, and I'm trying to ride that trend. AMPX: they make silicon-anode batteries. They are a different version of lithium ion batteries, that have a few different benefits, mainly a larger capacity. A few random android phones use it, and have a significantly larger battery capacity. So, I see a few ways for this company to take off. Firstly, they sell to drone manufacturers, and that's been booming. Secondly, if a major phone manufacturer makes a deal with them, that'll skyrocket the share price. Though, they are not the only company in the space, so it's all a gamble.
its not over for sure, but look at AXTI, LITE, and COHR
Is anyone watching AXTI these last couple months?
Check where the headquarters of AXTI are located, short answer, not USA
This is the most retarded portfolio I've ever seen. ONDS - Hyped up, Highly speculative, Minimal backlog, NOT considered a trusted vendor in the military space. Still has to prove itself. Definitely High-risk-low-reward. IREN - Was a great pump when people thought neoclouds are the future, right now we see a strong aggressive push by GOOG and AMZN with their own inference chips. Deals that the neoclouds made are pretty much of the type "all the risk is dropped onto you, while we sit back and use you as backup". You are essentially playing a high-risk-high-reward game with these. Definitely not stabilizing your port. RKLB - While great, and I myself considered investing in them, currently they are at a questionable valuation right now. I can definitely see them for deploying satellites but what else? Again not really stabilizing your portfolio. OPEN - Really? AXTI - This is a pure pump-and-dump based on a bullshit thesis. InP substrates are a niche market (200M) and in a highly competitive space. The moment Chinese export controls tighten (which will happen with the whole Iran / Russia fiasco) this shit will tank and will be fully replaced by Japanese competitors which have a much more significant presence in this space. You are literally buying the top here. Businesses already switched to different suppliers due to the risks involved ... you see it in their financial projections. PGE - Didn't do any research myself, so not gonna comment on this one. Congratulations a typical vibe-portfolio.
INTC 52-week all-time high. SLS tanked, had puts, made buckeroos AMD tanked, had puts, made buckeroos Bought AXTI puts (FEB/MAY) expecting sharp drop soon, because it's not an AI bottleneck and it's a shitco. I think this week turned out great
Bought the dip on AXTI Sold it for pennies later
I didn’t even realize the drop was due to earnings. Seems like that’s the case with every stock though. Gamble and AXTI ran fast. Dont have a position but im still starting one tmrw loo
Just continuing to hold NBIS quietly. But also the fact AXTI dumped like crazy makes me think aleabito/Serenity is now being used as a quick way to rug enthusiastic WSB degens short term lmao
AXTI was always a risk for the very reason it’s dumping
I got AXTI shares and it dumped.. any chance to recover to $25 in coming weeks or its dead done?
Thank GOD I sold out of that AXTI position this afternoon!!
Entered AXTI, 500 shares @ 18.5
Massive shout out to the AXTI guy! In for 32k out for 67. Massive week! Good luck to anyone still in
AXTI breathing life into my corpse ❤️
AXTI stops exploding the minute I get in of course
I have all in ai💀 but AXTI saved me and im positive now
I should have bought more AXTI! Really overbought now, hoping for a pullback to reposition a few bleeders.
Honestly a little speculative but I love AXTI. Indium phosphate will need to be used at every single AI data centers to get to 1.6T standards. They have also still been suppressed because of the risk of export controls. But I think Trump will make sure this doesn’t get affected as it is super critical. They also are like 30% of the entire worlds indium phosphate mining/refining and they are significantly undervalued compared to their peers. They also just got done with a major funding round and are poised to have significant growth in 2026.
AXTI was the other. My PT didn't trigger by a % 🤬 now up over 50% Ah well, there will be others but it hurts
WTF is going on with AXTI.... Added it to my defense list a month ago... Shows you I have way too many stocks on my way h list. Fack
AXTI pure fomo? Or more room to run?
AXTI was mentioned here weeks ago but I didn’t listen.
Wheres the AXTI guy? Pumping.
I’m sure most of you saw that guys write up on AXTI in WSB.. we’re not really in the meme write up era atm but I said fuck it and chucked 35k into some calls and that’s the only part of my portfolio making any money 😂 calls up 40%
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AXTI/virtual_analyst_report?source=symbol_summary_shared_link
AXTI guy was right; glad i bought
Sold my AXTI. Made a little bit of money. Good luck to everyone who goes on to either make a shit load or lose everything.
Wedbush analyst commented on DigiTimes 10:18:55 AXTI: InP substrate supply seemingly trailing demand View: Per DigiTimes, Epiwafer supplier IntelliEPI's output is being constrained by InP substrate shortages. As such, IntelliEPI is shifting its operating model (focusing on throughput vs. validation), while looking at recycling prior discarded wafers. We'd note strong InP demand (running ahead of supply) is also congruent with JX Advanced Materials plans to expand capacity (first announced in June with capacity expansion plans then revised higher during Q3). As a reminder, InP is a key material for optics required for both EMLs and SiPh. Product was also in short supply earlier this year, but shipments at that time were being restricted due to new Chinese export license requirements (a bottleneck that we believe has largely been resolved for the time being), suggesting current shortages are rather tied solely to stronger demand. We see this newsflow as a positive indicator for AXTI, which along with Sumitomo is a leading supplier of InP. We believe AXT's current capacity is \~$20M in InP substrate), vs. the $13M reported last quarter.
Whoever wrote about AXTI thanks! B
I have followed AXTI since their 1998 IPO, when they were American Xtal Technology, hq Fremont. It isn't just InP but also GaAs. Post well done and informative! Clearly lays out the geopolitical/ China risk which is substantial. AXT is without dispute an important part of the supply chain for InP, even if not a single choke point for AI datacenter buildouts. Price and volume matter! This stock has shown enormous relative strength recently in spite of significant insider selling, in spite of an $87mm capital raise, and in spite of the fact that the revenues and profits are not showing in financials. This is high risk and high reward with a broad range of outcomes. I would rather be long than short. The author's scenario of InP substrates seeing major price increases in likely if not certain. AXT should see rising unit volumes and rising ASP's throughout 2026.
Yea didn’t mean to rub it in hah Was just a ofc it worked out moment when I saw your comment and started looking through his past posts wondering wtf his DD on AXTI is supposed to be
ChatGPT: The statement is materially overstated. AXT Inc. (NASDAQ: AXTI) is a real and strategically relevant supplier in compound semiconductor substrates, but it is not a single point of failure for the global AI buildout, nor does it control the shares of global capacity being claimed. The investment thesis relies on kernel truths amplified into monopoly narratives that do not withstand close supply-chain scrutiny. AXTI operates in a strategically important niche. It produces compound semiconductor substrates, primarily Gallium Arsenide, Indium Phosphide, and Germanium. These materials matter for photonics, optical transceivers, RF front-ends, and certain sensing and laser applications. This makes AXTI exposed to AI capital expenditure, particularly data-center optics, but not to AI compute itself. Indium Phosphide substrates are supply-constrained. They are harder to grow than silicon, capacity expansion is slow, and there are only a handful of qualified suppliers globally. AXTI is one of them, which gives it leverage in specific bottlenecks, but not system-wide control. China risk is real. AXTI has significant exposure to China across manufacturing and customers. Export controls or geopolitical escalation could materially impair the business. This creates asymmetric risk: upside leverage during favorable cycles and existential downside under adverse policy scenarios. The claim that AXTI controls one-third of global substrate capacity is incorrect. The substrate market is segmented by material, and silicon substrates dwarf compound substrates by orders of magnitude. Even within compound substrates, AXTI does not control one-third of global capacity. Major competitors and alternative suppliers exist across regions. The assertion that AXTI is a duopoly of the AI bottleneck reflects a category error. Current AI bottlenecks are dominated by advanced logic nodes, advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, EUV lithography tools, and power delivery. Indium Phosphide substrates are important for optical I/O, but they are not the gating constraint on AI scaling. The claim that the AI buildout would stop if AXTI failed is demonstrably false. Other InP suppliers exist in Japan and Europe. Capacity would tighten and prices would rise, but AI deployment would continue. AI compute does not directly depend on AXTI’s substrates. A seven-billion-dollar valuation extrapolation assumes monopoly pricing power, no substitution or alternative suppliers, no geopolitical disruption, and sustained AI capital expenditure without cyclical correction. Those assumptions cannot reasonably hold simultaneously. AXTI should be viewed as a leverage point rather than a monopoly. It is a small-cap materials supplier in a capacity-constrained niche with high operating leverage and nonlinear upside during optical capex surges. That profile can justify volatility, cyclical spikes, and tactical option trades, but it does not justify infrastructure-scale valuation comparisons or guaranteed AI supercycle outcomes. These narratives tend to emerge by identifying a real constraint, collapsing the entire system onto that constraint, ignoring substitution and capital response, and applying venture-style storytelling to public equities. This pattern is common during late-cycle enthusiasm, particularly in retail-dominated forums.
Should have set a lower AMSC limit buy this morning. AXTI tomorrow?
This is coming from Grok Beta 4.1 No, **AXT Inc** (NASDAQ: AXTI) does not have a monopoly over all AI — far from it. AXT Inc is a materials science company that designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes high-performance compound semiconductor substrates, primarily: - gallium arsenide (GaAs) - indium phosphide (InP) - germanium (Ge) These substrates serve in optoelectronics, lasers, data center connectivity (e.g., silicon photonics for high-speed optical transceivers), 5G infrastructure, LEDs, and other applications. InP substrates have gained relevance for AI data centers because they enable faster optical interconnects needed for handling massive data loads in AI training and inference clusters. The AI ecosystem is vast and involves layers like: - hardware (GPUs from Nvidia) - cloud infrastructure (from Microsoft, Amazon, Google) - foundation models (from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google) - software frameworks Discussions of AI "monopolies" typically focus on dominant players like Nvidia (in AI chips), Microsoft/OpenAI, or Google, not substrate suppliers like AXT. Some online speculation (e.g., a Reddit post on r/wallstreetbets) has exaggerated AXT's role, claiming it holds a near-monopoly or duopoly in InP substrates and raw materials, potentially bottlenecking AI buildout. While AXT benefits from vertical integration (partial ownership of raw material suppliers in China) and recent demand surges for InP in AI-related applications, it operates in a competitive niche market with other suppliers. It is not a monopoly over "all AI" — AI hardware and software development would continue without AXT, though certain optical components might face supply constraints. In summary, AXT plays a small, specialized supporting role in the AI supply chain through materials for data center optics, but it has no control or monopoly over artificial intelligence as a whole.
If anyone is trying to understand the purpose of this post, I'll tell you the real reason: AXTI announced a ~16% dilution event this morning and this insider is dumping on your (retail's) head.
AXTI is important, but not a single point of failure. Bottlenecked market ≠ monopoly. This is a cool thesis, but you need receipts. 📎 And a lot of them Claim: “AXTI is the single point of failure for the AI buildout; a double bottleneck monopoly on InP substrates and materials.” Not a monopoly, not even a strict duopoly. Besides AXT, JX Advanced Metals and Sumitomo actively supply InP wafers and JX is adding capacity (+20% in July; now targeting +50% vs. 2025 levels). That’s an oligopoly, not a single chokepoint, lol. On Feb 4, 2025 China put InP substrates under export control; AXT’s Beijing Tongmei unit needs licenses to ship. That’s a supply-continuity risk, not proof of control. AXT does make InP base material for its own ingots, but there’s no primary source confirming it “controls a quarter” of global InP chemicals. Unverified numbers. “Vital 35% / AXT 25% of InP materials” = no primary source. AXT makes InP base material for itself; that’s not “controlling a quarter” of global chemicals. AI optics ≠ compute ends without InP. Co-packaged optics and SiPh typically use InP lasers, yes...but near-reach copper, VCSELs (GaAs), and multi-source vendor strategies all exist. Nvidia/Broadcom roadmaps highlight InP CW lasers for SiPh, but that’s not a one-supplier dependency. \-$5B ransom” to secure supply is conjecture. No credible sourcing for those dollar figures or BOM math. BOM math looks hand-wavy. What could break the bull case? Tougher export curbs, customer re-qualification losses, or major ex-China capacity adds from JX/Sumitomo. Why AXTI is up \~600%+ YTD: Scarcity + narrative: China’s Feb 4, 2025 export controls on InP substrates created a global scarcity/reshoring narrative around a critical AI-optics input. Permit progress (squeeze the shorts, re-open channel): On June 11, 2025, AXT’s Tongmei unit received permits to resume exporting InP to select customers—removing a “going-to-zero” tail risk and fueling a violent re-rating. Earnings optics: Management flagged improving substrate trends through mid/late-2025 and highlighted an InP backlog on the Q3 call; that stoked “AI optics upcycle” positioning. Capital flexibility: AXT filed a $100M shelf in November—bulls read that as fuel for working capital/capacity in a tight market. (Shelf ≠ issuance, but it signals optionality.) Lets look at the top institutional investors: Vanguard Group \~2.20M shares. Pacific Ridge Capital \~1.79M–1.86M shares. First Beijing Investment \~1.73M shares. BlackRock \~0.70M shares. Geode Capital \~0.45M shares.
If anyone is trying to understand this post, I'll tell you the real reason: AXTI announced a dilution event this morning and this insider is dumping on your (retail's) head. > AXT Announces Pricing of $87,000,000 Public Offering of Common Stock > FREMONT, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AXT, Inc. (NasdaqGS: AXTI) (“AXT” or the “Company”), a leading manufacturer of compound semiconductor wafer substrates, announced today the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 7,098,492 shares of common stock at a price to the public of $12.25 per share. The gross proceeds from the offering to the Company are expected to be approximately $87 million, before deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and other offering expenses. In addition, the Company granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to 1,064,773 additional shares of common stock at the public offering price, less the underwriting discounts (the “Overallotment Option”). If the Overallotment Option is fully exercised, the Company expects to receive aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $100 million, before deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and other offering expenses. The offering is expected to close on or about December 30, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions.
I have a small position in AXTI. A couple of months ago, I saw it run almost 100%. First time I see it on a post on WallStreetBets, and you basically confirmed my thesis. I ended up buying some pre-market today, and it immediately dropped almost 20%. Honestly, that was one of those moments where you just want to kick yourself. Seeing it move up this strongly now really surprises me. I was convinced the stock would only go down after today’s offering.
they can't. anti-trust and it's a national security risk. AXTI CEO said they own 40% of the InP supply chain. If Google bought them for $800m, all other hyperscalers wouldn't have enough materials for their AI ramp. Also China would not likely approve it since all their mines/refineries are there and they prob don't like Google.
Uhh, from my own personal research so far, to cover all grounds I’ve liked: 1. $AXTI - Basically 40% of InP supply chain 2. $DOWA + Sumitomo for Western hedge on InP / InP substrate 3. $AAOI, $LITE for hyperscaler buildout, AAOI for AMZN/MSFT, and LITE for everything but more levered to Google TPU 4. $MRVL and $AVGO - MRVL design partner for MSFT 2026-2027, and AVGO kinda everything.
I bought shares of LITE and Coherent just because i found out they are NVIDIA's photonics partners, and made something like 500% gain. Guess now im going to bet on AXTI, you convinced me. Whats your opinion on future of photonics? Which company would you make a long bet like 5 years+?
Sounds good but then you look at numbers like AXTI net profit YoY declined by 124.48%, AXTI net profit margin has declined by 25.22%, and really wonder how it can do so poorly in boom cycle is it's so crucial
How will china's export controls not effect AXTI?
uh POET still requires InP for actual light production (which was the post). If AXTI and Vital decide to jack up InP prices because hyperscalers go directly to them for supply as insurance like how Nvidia already pre-paid for supply which caused the initial shortage, gg. POET is still at mercy of laser-grade InP suppliers. There's no way around that for the next two years Poet uses silicon wafers, which addresses the substrate bottleneck but they're still at mercy of InP.
Thanks. I'd disagree when you say it's more fragmented, I supplied the breakdown below. If one company owns 25 or 30% of the entire chain off two different bottle necks, then that's absolutely huge concentration. For substrates it's -AXTI (est. \~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.\~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%). 5 companies make up 70% of the supply. For InP: Vital Materials - 35% AXTI - 25% via (Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology) Zhuzhou Keneng New Material - 18% Dowa - 12% Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% InPACT (France) - 3% Rest of World - 2% (Coherent, Sumitomo, Korean, Taiwan, etc.
uh it's probably one of the hardest things in the world to produce indium phosphide and InP substrate. There's only two companies (AXTI and Sumitomo) that produce the substrate at scale right now (with JX at like 10%). InP is like EXTREMELY hard. Laser-grade feedstock must be at least 6N (99.9999%) pure. Even trace amounts of impurities (Silicon, Sulfur, Zinc), cannot be used like they do in other segments like LED. It takes years to set up this supply chain and everyone started to pivot to photonics in 2025. So yeah, there's no way around AXTI for the next 2 years.
Your understanding of geopolitics is shit and your dd is shit as a result. You should be looking into how US govt will derisk supply chain from China, that is where you put your money, not AXTI.
FYI if China export controls, then entire western AI buildout stalls. This is why AXTI is the single point of failure in the entire AI supply chain buildout. That's the blowup-risk.
$GOOG being bottle-necked by $AXTI sounds more like a reason to short $GOOG.
I'm 9 for 11 so far accuracy so far! AXTI $15 to $150 is a extremely wild guess personally, but this is the most obscure bottleneck of the entire AI trade nobody knew about before. So I think it's possible. T1 energy just hit from $4.5 to $7+ the other week. Sorry about Nebius, didn't expect it go go up 40% then down 40% but I think patience will pay off and it hits $150 mid 2026.. **1. Hims** – $28 → $60 *(Upward)* ✅ **2. Ethereum (ETH)** – $1,600 → $4.8K *(PT: $3K)* ✅ **3. Bull** – \~100% gain, free money arbitrage ✅ **4. Google (GOOGL)** – $156 → $185 → now $256 ✅ **5. Etoro** – $67.75 → $83 *(hit $79 breakout, missed by $4)* ⚪ *(+0.5/1)* **6. Oscar Health (OSCR)** – $14.35 → $22 ✅ **7. Bitcoin (BTC)** – $103K → $124.5K, 225K PT\*(2-year play)\* ⏳ ongoing **8. Upwork (UPWK)** – $13.5 → $17+ *(PT $20)* ✅ **9. Sweetgreen (SG)** – $8.21 → $6.30 ❌ *(got this one wrong sorry)* **10. Hims (Re-entry)** – $48.92 → $60 ✅ **11. Nebius** – $108 → $150 *(hit $140)* ⏳ *(+0.5/1)* ongoing **12. Snapchat (SNAP)** – $8.45 → $7.47 ⏳ recent, ongoing *(2026)* **13. Fly** – $30 → $23 ⏳ recent, ongoing *(2026)* **14. T1 Energy** – $4.50 → $7.3 ✅ **15. Meta (META)** – ⏳ 16. $AXTI - $15 ->?
POET, AVGO, AAOI, LITE, COHR, and any US photonics company are one level higher where they all depend on InP substrates or Indium Phosphide to make their optical components. Basically AXTI is the lowest level of the entire supply chain.
If you think a company like AXTI can't be acquired, reproduced by, or otherwise taken out of the equation by GOOGL or some combination of partnerships in the mag 7 or the rest of the industry, you're wrong. Additionally the development of AI, and in particular the pursuit of advanced AI or AGI, is a nation-state problem. The United States can't afford to fall behind to China in AI and in fact if any part of the supply chain were seriously hampered to the point where progress was not being made, there would be government investment to the tune of billions to build out that supply chain. "Google literally cannot do this because it's a physics problem, it's not something money can buy. IT would take a few years at least." -- You do realize Google has one of the highest concentrations of PHDs in Physics, Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science out of any company or institutions in the world right? Mixed with a war chest comparable to only a few other institutions like AAPL. There are probably more PHDs at GOOGL than the number that reside at the most universities. Probably more than cumulatively reside at any of the best colleges in the nation. As u/x7_omega mentioned below "*AXT’s worldwide headquarters are* ***in Fremont, California*** *and includes* ***sales, administration and customer service functions***\*. AXT’s\* ***subsidiary in China (“Tongmei”)*** *has similar functions as well as* ***manufacturing facilities to produce wafer substrates***\*. In addition, as part of the supply chain strategy, AXT,\* ***Tongmei and Tongmei subsidiaries collectively have partial ownership in ten companies in China producing raw materials***\*.\* If this company is really a "bottleneck" but all of it's manufacturing and R&D happens in China, that's already a national security risk that needs to be or is in the process of being mitigated. I know nothing about the intrinsic value of this company. You might be right I just don't agree with your reasoning. Look at the $TSM bottleneck/single point of failure in the supply chain...It's actively being mitigated by trillions in investment in US based chip fab.
No. Google's TPU program is heavily dependent on $LITE for their OCS. Then $AXTI basically controls 1/3rd of the world's outputs for InP Substrates. On top of that $AXTI basically controls 1/4th of the materials needed for all photonics. 78% of all the materials comes from China and AXTI is one of the few with export controls. Google literally cannot do this because it's a physics problem, it's not something money can buy. IT would take a few years at least. And if they tried buying all of the supply (which is only a few billion TAM), Microsoft would literally not be able to build out their program so yes, it becomes a game theory issue with supply chain materials. If you shut down 1/4th of the world's materials and 1/3rd of the world's substrates when demand already exceeds supply by multiple factors. Have fun with scaling out any AI program in 2026.
\- "THE ENTIRE AI INDUSTRY IS BOTTLENECKED" - nah. \- "THE WORLD IS AT MAX CAPACITY RIGHT NOW (demand > supply by multiple factors pre-ramp) AND THIS IS GAME THEORY on materials supply chains." this could be true but would like to actually see some numbers to prove it, I think the AI hype is (very very slowly) dying down a bit, after a few years of rapid expansion and investment. \- "Just to give u an example $AXTI -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPU. without any of these members, the program shuts down" - except that Google alone could build out this entire supply chain if it was really needed. As you said, Google is almost 4 trillion. best case might be an investment by google in AXTI to send the stock flying higher, like they did with WULF
make sure to really study and BUY 2 stocks AXTI and POET
#TLDR --- **Ticker:** AXTI **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy Aug 2026 $30 Calls (LEAPS) **The Thesis:** The entire AI buildout (Nvidia, Google, MSFT) relies on photonics, which physically require Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates. AXTI is a tiny company that controls ~35% of the global InP supply in a duopoly. Supply is short, demand is ramping, and this is the unfixable bottleneck for the next 2 years. **Resource Status:** Not enough Vesper Gas **Analogy:** Level 20 Top Lane Anivia Wall blocking the AI supply chain.
#TLDR --- Ticker: AXTI Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Max OTM Calls Vesper Gas: Insufficient Anivia Wall: Max Rank
thanks m8! great stuff on the fundamentals. i will try to complement with some stuff on the technical side: Big picture: For AXTI, the current signals are leaning negative, with both momentum and statistical indicators suggesting potential short-term downside based on historical patterns. This confluence indicates that caution may be warranted for near-term bullish bets. Stretch in Up-Days: When we look at the past 36 days for AXTI returns, more than 59% of these days were positive. If we had sold whenever AXTI showed this setup, the stock on average had losses of 0.61% per day, with a high statistical confidence (p-value of 0.00042), across more than 400 cases. RSI Index pointing to overbought: AXTI’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) over a 66-day period is above the 65 threshold, marking “overbought” conditions. Historically, when this occurred, AXTI declined about 2.32% the next day on average, with a high statistical confidence (p-value of 0.00244), across 31 past cases. Note: These signals reflect past statistical patterns — they do not guarantee today’s price action. source: [sirius-ai](https://siriussignals.com/sirius-ai)