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What is going on with AXTI? It squeezes every day.
How come all plays that aren’t APRN and AVCT get downvoted to hell
AXTI has a perfect short squeeze set up
Mentions
How will china's export controls not effect AXTI?
uh POET still requires InP for actual light production (which was the post). If AXTI and Vital decide to jack up InP prices because hyperscalers go directly to them for supply as insurance like how Nvidia already pre-paid for supply which caused the initial shortage, gg. POET is still at mercy of laser-grade InP suppliers. There's no way around that for the next two years Poet uses silicon wafers, which addresses the substrate bottleneck but they're still at mercy of InP.
Thanks. I'd disagree when you say it's more fragmented, I supplied the breakdown below. If one company owns 25 or 30% of the entire chain off two different bottle necks, then that's absolutely huge concentration. For substrates it's -AXTI (est. \~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.\~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%). 5 companies make up 70% of the supply. For InP: Vital Materials - 35% AXTI - 25% via (Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology) Zhuzhou Keneng New Material - 18% Dowa - 12% Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% InPACT (France) - 3% Rest of World - 2% (Coherent, Sumitomo, Korean, Taiwan, etc.
uh it's probably one of the hardest things in the world to produce indium phosphide and InP substrate. There's only two companies (AXTI and Sumitomo) that produce the substrate at scale right now (with JX at like 10%). InP is like EXTREMELY hard. Laser-grade feedstock must be at least 6N (99.9999%) pure. Even trace amounts of impurities (Silicon, Sulfur, Zinc), cannot be used like they do in other segments like LED. It takes years to set up this supply chain and everyone started to pivot to photonics in 2025. So yeah, there's no way around AXTI for the next 2 years.
Your understanding of geopolitics is shit and your dd is shit as a result. You should be looking into how US govt will derisk supply chain from China, that is where you put your money, not AXTI.
FYI if China export controls, then entire western AI buildout stalls. This is why AXTI is the single point of failure in the entire AI supply chain buildout. That's the blowup-risk.
$GOOG being bottle-necked by $AXTI sounds more like a reason to short $GOOG.
I'm 9 for 11 so far accuracy so far! AXTI $15 to $150 is a extremely wild guess personally, but this is the most obscure bottleneck of the entire AI trade nobody knew about before. So I think it's possible. T1 energy just hit from $4.5 to $7+ the other week. Sorry about Nebius, didn't expect it go go up 40% then down 40% but I think patience will pay off and it hits $150 mid 2026.. **1. Hims** – $28 → $60 *(Upward)* ✅ **2. Ethereum (ETH)** – $1,600 → $4.8K *(PT: $3K)* ✅ **3. Bull** – \~100% gain, free money arbitrage ✅ **4. Google (GOOGL)** – $156 → $185 → now $256 ✅ **5. Etoro** – $67.75 → $83 *(hit $79 breakout, missed by $4)* ⚪ *(+0.5/1)* **6. Oscar Health (OSCR)** – $14.35 → $22 ✅ **7. Bitcoin (BTC)** – $103K → $124.5K, 225K PT\*(2-year play)\* ⏳ ongoing **8. Upwork (UPWK)** – $13.5 → $17+ *(PT $20)* ✅ **9. Sweetgreen (SG)** – $8.21 → $6.30 ❌ *(got this one wrong sorry)* **10. Hims (Re-entry)** – $48.92 → $60 ✅ **11. Nebius** – $108 → $150 *(hit $140)* ⏳ *(+0.5/1)* ongoing **12. Snapchat (SNAP)** – $8.45 → $7.47 ⏳ recent, ongoing *(2026)* **13. Fly** – $30 → $23 ⏳ recent, ongoing *(2026)* **14. T1 Energy** – $4.50 → $7.3 ✅ **15. Meta (META)** – ⏳ 16. $AXTI - $15 ->?
POET, AVGO, AAOI, LITE, COHR, and any US photonics company are one level higher where they all depend on InP substrates or Indium Phosphide to make their optical components. Basically AXTI is the lowest level of the entire supply chain.
If you think a company like AXTI can't be acquired, reproduced by, or otherwise taken out of the equation by GOOGL or some combination of partnerships in the mag 7 or the rest of the industry, you're wrong. Additionally the development of AI, and in particular the pursuit of advanced AI or AGI, is a nation-state problem. The United States can't afford to fall behind to China in AI and in fact if any part of the supply chain were seriously hampered to the point where progress was not being made, there would be government investment to the tune of billions to build out that supply chain. "Google literally cannot do this because it's a physics problem, it's not something money can buy. IT would take a few years at least." -- You do realize Google has one of the highest concentrations of PHDs in Physics, Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science out of any company or institutions in the world right? Mixed with a war chest comparable to only a few other institutions like AAPL. There are probably more PHDs at GOOGL than the number that reside at the most universities. Probably more than cumulatively reside at any of the best colleges in the nation. As u/x7_omega mentioned below "*AXT’s worldwide headquarters are* ***in Fremont, California*** *and includes* ***sales, administration and customer service functions***\*. AXT’s\* ***subsidiary in China (“Tongmei”)*** *has similar functions as well as* ***manufacturing facilities to produce wafer substrates***\*. In addition, as part of the supply chain strategy, AXT,\* ***Tongmei and Tongmei subsidiaries collectively have partial ownership in ten companies in China producing raw materials***\*.\* If this company is really a "bottleneck" but all of it's manufacturing and R&D happens in China, that's already a national security risk that needs to be or is in the process of being mitigated. I know nothing about the intrinsic value of this company. You might be right I just don't agree with your reasoning. Look at the $TSM bottleneck/single point of failure in the supply chain...It's actively being mitigated by trillions in investment in US based chip fab.
No. Google's TPU program is heavily dependent on $LITE for their OCS. Then $AXTI basically controls 1/3rd of the world's outputs for InP Substrates. On top of that $AXTI basically controls 1/4th of the materials needed for all photonics. 78% of all the materials comes from China and AXTI is one of the few with export controls. Google literally cannot do this because it's a physics problem, it's not something money can buy. IT would take a few years at least. And if they tried buying all of the supply (which is only a few billion TAM), Microsoft would literally not be able to build out their program so yes, it becomes a game theory issue with supply chain materials. If you shut down 1/4th of the world's materials and 1/3rd of the world's substrates when demand already exceeds supply by multiple factors. Have fun with scaling out any AI program in 2026.
\- "THE ENTIRE AI INDUSTRY IS BOTTLENECKED" - nah. \- "THE WORLD IS AT MAX CAPACITY RIGHT NOW (demand > supply by multiple factors pre-ramp) AND THIS IS GAME THEORY on materials supply chains." this could be true but would like to actually see some numbers to prove it, I think the AI hype is (very very slowly) dying down a bit, after a few years of rapid expansion and investment. \- "Just to give u an example $AXTI -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPU. without any of these members, the program shuts down" - except that Google alone could build out this entire supply chain if it was really needed. As you said, Google is almost 4 trillion. best case might be an investment by google in AXTI to send the stock flying higher, like they did with WULF
make sure to really study and BUY 2 stocks AXTI and POET
#TLDR --- **Ticker:** AXTI **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy Aug 2026 $30 Calls (LEAPS) **The Thesis:** The entire AI buildout (Nvidia, Google, MSFT) relies on photonics, which physically require Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates. AXTI is a tiny company that controls ~35% of the global InP supply in a duopoly. Supply is short, demand is ramping, and this is the unfixable bottleneck for the next 2 years. **Resource Status:** Not enough Vesper Gas **Analogy:** Level 20 Top Lane Anivia Wall blocking the AI supply chain.
#TLDR --- Ticker: AXTI Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Max OTM Calls Vesper Gas: Insufficient Anivia Wall: Max Rank
thanks m8! great stuff on the fundamentals. i will try to complement with some stuff on the technical side: Big picture: For AXTI, the current signals are leaning negative, with both momentum and statistical indicators suggesting potential short-term downside based on historical patterns. This confluence indicates that caution may be warranted for near-term bullish bets. Stretch in Up-Days: When we look at the past 36 days for AXTI returns, more than 59% of these days were positive. If we had sold whenever AXTI showed this setup, the stock on average had losses of 0.61% per day, with a high statistical confidence (p-value of 0.00042), across more than 400 cases. RSI Index pointing to overbought: AXTI’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) over a 66-day period is above the 65 threshold, marking “overbought” conditions. Historically, when this occurred, AXTI declined about 2.32% the next day on average, with a high statistical confidence (p-value of 0.00244), across 31 past cases. Note: These signals reflect past statistical patterns — they do not guarantee today’s price action. source: [sirius-ai](https://siriussignals.com/sirius-ai)
Huge AI winners that have incredible value ahead of Orange man’s AI speech POET AXTI DVLT INVZ INDI
Alright you've convinced me. What's an alternative play for today then? I'm messing with AXTI, that's done well today.
Cheap stocks. BBAI, KULR, AMPX, AXTI, SB. There's a reason why they're cheap: high volatility, pretty small price movements. It's easy to lose a little many times and add up to a lot.
AXTI looks like it's as low as it will go and could squeeze soon
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AXTI breaking out this week
When’s the meeting or announcement? Concerned it’ll just do what AXTI did yesterday
Holding: AUUD - but close to my stop loss AXTI - my mistake CTM - long play for 2025 (hope it will be BBAI brother) DGLY - from 0.073. It should rebound one more time HOVR - today new position SYRA - chart looks interest XAIR - dead mouse. Also close to my stop loss
DDs on SOBR, CYN, TRNR, AXTI, OCEA incoming soon
I mean, AXTI could… you know what nvm forgive me y’all. I’ll see myself out
You are 10x worae than the guy who suggested AXTI😂
AXTI got wiped out, LEAVE WHILE YOU CAN
You can buy AXTI for cheap in a few days
https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AXTI/axt-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2024-financial-c9jl9ntgj1ps.html
Any word on AXTI earnings?
I'm not sure what to do with AXTI, should I sell it or hold until tomorrow? Earnings report wasn't good but wasn't bad either.
Sell AXTI. Don't bag hold. Holding after not good earnings is very risky
I'm actively praying that AXTI has green earnings, I bought 500 shares at $2.30. How much do yall think it will go up after earnings?
Damn, that AXTI earnings report must be terrible for it to dump that bad...
What’s the After Hours / Overnight play? (Almost got into AXTI… glad I didn’t)
AXTI should go nuts after hours.
Got in AXTI. Let's see where it goes. After hours should be fun with earnings coming in
AXTI I hate to sound like a broken record but earnings are tonight and fundamentals look great! Solid buy for AH into TMR
Going into AXTI, long hold on this one
solid volume for AXTI ! This may be tomorrows winner
AXTI earnings report tonight
AXTI. Names are similar, annoying. AXTI earnings are tonight and I really believe it's primed to blow
I see you around and I'm with you on SPGC long term but check out AXTI
check out AXTI. earnings are tn
AXTI earnings after hours chart looks beautiful
I think AXTI is an absolute no brainer for tonight into tomorrow 🚀
AXTI looks solid earnings after close today and they have smashed the last 4 https://preview.redd.it/9mry67b5dcke1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=8274d1d5448564b0731609bf76b89879d47580df
# AXTI earnings today after market close, anyone goin with it?
Yo check out AXTI honestly looks pretty good
AXTI Earnings are tomorrow and it's at the bottom of an upwards spiral. Overall fundamentals look great. I'm in.
Make your own call, but if a stock is up and I am happy with the profit(usually anything over 10%) I sell. 10% is good and most of the time, depending on the stock, you just give all your profits back and end up holding a bag. I am already out of a few stocks, $RR $ACHR $SERV but took good gains. Holding on a couple others that look good. $AXTI $BBAI and $SOUN
look at AXTI, what do you think? They report today after hours.
Only AXTI the absolute cuck of all small caps can start the day up 7.5% easy to fade to red for no reason when it supplies all chipmakers and datacenter projects with substrates.
Not chipmaker but upstream materials supplier AXTI. They need these compounds to make chips and get them to work in harmony in data centers.
BTDR MXCT CUTR AXTI GSIT Holding OM that I got today
I felt pretty smart about ALCC and AXTI for a while until I saw the former pop up constantly on wsb and the latter pick up comments on Stocktwits. Can’t get a moment’s peace.
Was pounding the table on AXTI a true “shovel & pick” play for AI that hasn’t already been pumped into absurdity
Not much I can do about rates but if these AI players like NVDA and AXTI don’t have big ERs I’m in danger
TSLA and BABA plus insane MNMD, AXTI, and ALCC gains for last couple months holding my port down bigly
If you guys want free money, buy AXTI at this price
For what it’s worth: J Capital just announced they shorted AXTI w predictable results. Stock has tanked. AXTI came out w good earnings last quarter. Of course the short sellers weren’t content w seeing if their bet panned out, they had to announce it to the world, especially as yesterday AXTI seemed to be gaining momentum. I would love for these guys (J Capital) to take it in the shorts
Smci old news look elsewhere like AXTI, there’s dozens of semi sleepers
What’s your opinions on AXTI stock?
I’m fairly new so no don’t take my advice. That’s why I’m here asking. AXT Inc (AXTI) reached a significant support level, and could be a good pick for investors from a technical perspective. Recently, AXTI's 50-day simple moving average broke out above its 200-day moving average; this is known as a "golden cross."
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/dMRhZ0L3l2 Called about $AXTI before the market opened. $ALT is looking 🐂 too, I’d definitely keep an eye on these two tomorrow.
Anyone know about AXTI? They're a quantum computer company, went from $3 to $5 the last two days (earnings was positive)
$AXTI calls 
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/eVbjgoJMyK $AXTI seems to be the only momentum at the moment.
I started playing suppliers for chip components. AXTI calls paid last week. Microcap company that supplies key chemicals and physical components for chip manufacturing.
AXTI had insane volume all morning, sideways the whole time after a bounce at the open....
Anybody playing AXTI? Materials supplier for semis blowing out earnings and of course mentioned AI. Might let it cool and cop some shares. Might let IV cool before options.
$AXTI 19 April 2024 $2.5 puts 🚨
$AXTI April 19 $2.5 put 🎯
$AXTI should dump below $3 soon 🚨
$AXTI April 19 $2.5 puts 🪦
$AXTI March 15 $2.5 puts 💀
$AXTI April 19 $2.5 puts 🐻🩸