DC

unhappyreach_

Indeed I still think this was all about stopping the flow of black-market oil to China. I don't think the administration expected Iran to hold out for so long, but here we are. XI is going to DC soon

Muireadach

LMAO, LOL I bought during covid and it doubled since in Loudoun County VA. The Chesapeake bay property also doubled. The DC economic engine churns. Has for 30 years.

realribsnotmcfibs

So let’s say this pans out. How do you deal with the airspace issues in any major city once you add thousands of e helis. Around major airports as it is professional pilots end up in 1000+ close calls a year. Look at the military heli in DC that murdered like 70 people at an airport that has long out grown its airspace and is very dangerous on any given day. This seems like a race to the bottom funded by bag holders. But hay those in North Dakota could use it. They love electrification.

Extension-Temporary4

Capstone Energy (CEPL) is a small, newly recapitalized power-equipment (turbines) company that has finally reached operating profitability — 9 consecutive quarters of EBITDA growth and the last few have shown a small positive NI ~$2.8 — with a potential data-center catalyst that is not yet reflected in the existing financials. Since the restructuring it went from an operating-loss business to an operating-profit business while simultaneously growing revenue 24% and gross profit 45%. Total revenue of ~$106mm. $20.4M of incremental revenue produced roughly $10.6M of incremental gross profit. That’s a ~52% incremental gross margin. And operating expenses barely moved: $28.9M → $30.5M . CEPL has a rental business that’s expanding. $7.8mm of future rental revenue & currently leased assets. Gross profits topped $8.8mm and operating cash flow generated $5.4 million in Q1 2027 (quarter ending June 30 — the reporting schedule is a little wacky). It has also been building up inventory, which is either a sign of a pending deal, or a sign of bad management (hopefully the former). Also worth noting, CEPL has been advertising data center related employment positions on hiring websites (e.g. data center engineers and planners). Market cap is roughly equal to the EV and it’s not because of debt; the company has sufficient cash to payoff its outstanding debt - $28.9mm in cash and about $25.5mm in debt.  As for its turbines, it does have a slight edge/moat. First, the air bearing technology reduces maintenance AND noise — the latter arguably being more important given the noise concern w/ data centers. Second, the turbines produce 800vdc power, no need to convert, which means cheaper and easier install. This directly targets the latest generation of Nvdia GPU’s which require 800vdc. Third, the turbines can run on a number of fuel sources, not just Nat gas. Fourth, they’ve been in business for over 30 years, they have real knowledge and experience, and a diversified revenue stream — sales, rentals, servicing of existing clients and relationships with existing/former clients. They provide on-sight power to oil and gas companies, BTM for hospitals and research centers, etc.  Fifth, despite some misinformation out there, the turbines are very efficiency. Capstone turbines recycle the heat from the turbine to power cooling systems. CEPL turbines are therefore able to achieve greater than 75% efficiency. Sixth, CEPL revamped its supply chain and production line. The company has run various simulations and pressure tested suppliers to ensure it can meet the demands of a 100mw DC. Apparently lead time is down to something like 3 days per turbine for production. With instillation, CEPL can supply power within a matter of weeks, not months or years. The marquee players have a backlog/lead time of of several years. With Capstone, there’s no waiting on converters, chillers, fuel cells, backlogs etc. During the last earnings call, CEPL strongly hinted that it‘s on the precipice of landing a DC deal. This is not an over hyped meme stock, or a pump and dump.  CEPL is careful with the language it uses. Some quotes from the last earnings call: “The types of deals now that we’re seeing, they’re moving into those phases that are more meaningful.” “When the customers start to do the real TCO models, we’re winning.” “It’s just a matter of time for us to march down the field and get some of these over the goal line.” And That “Some folks are just saying, ‘I don’t need a pilot, I just need megawatts.’” CEO mentioned that he is in talks with the “CTO of a major infrastructure player in the data center space.” Said mystery company is developing 1.5–3 MW sites, which is exactly who/what CEPL is targeting. And when asked whether this was an anchor customer, the CEO corrected the characterization “I don’t know if I would see that as an anchor customer as much as I would see it as an anchor partner.” So, coming full circle, we have a company with solid margins, a recapitalized balance sheet, a clean organizational chart/entity structure, a revamped supply chain, a new and improved production line, new leadership, new product offerings, low lead time, easy install, building inventory, advertising AI specific jobs . . . The only thing missing - sales. CEPL needs to show they can sell more than a unit or two per quarter, otherwise something is fundamentally wrong. Either the product is bad, or the sales team is bad. Either way, it could be fatal at this stage. CEPL is teetering on the edge. If we don’t see a significant increase in sales by the next ER, we run the very real risk of the share price falling below $5, and potential delisting.  It’s also worth noting that while debt is only $25.3mm, AP= $17.6mm, accrued expenses =   $3.8mm, salaries and wages   $3.2mm, accrued warranty reserve = ~$1mm, so total exposure is really closer $50.73mm. Plus $12.5mm in lease liabilities, $10.69 deferred revenue, $4.7 factory protection liability, $49.3 in inventory purchase commitments. Cash and receivables total $41.8mm. So a more complete picture reveals outlays indeed exceed cash and receivables.  A recent shelf offering gives CEPL access to capital if needed. But if CEPL needs to issue more shares to generate cash, and does so without some sort of major deal announcement to offset the dilution, the resulting dilution and selloff will be bad.  This is a company on the precipice of either great success or great failure. It cannot afford to fail again, since it just emerged from a restructuring. Capstone needs to drive sales growth in the next quarter or two. If it does, share price will explode. 

b_rup_breaks

Or Biden... The Red Hat crew (what's left of them seems like a lot of paid for schils) would be storming DC in the middle of the night. Let's also be honest here, $5k ain't shit in 2026, that barely affords a few months of expenses and doesn't even cover most health plan deductibles these days. Still waiting for my DOGE Dividend & Tarrif Rebate checks...

Extension-Temporary4

Regarding output: I think you are right, the turbines are too small for a large DC. But in a way, that could work to their advantage. The big data centers are all running to the marquee players, like GEV, Pratt, Mitsubishi, etc. There are a lot of up and comers trying to break into the space — like bloom. But there’s not as much competition for the smaller data centers, or all the other use case (hospitals, backup power, construction and drilling sites, etc.). Everyone has tunnel vision for the DC, leaving a large gap in the market. I’m hoping Capstone builds out its sales team and chases these openings.  As for the fraud — that was previous management, pre bankruptcy. Standard shareholder class action BS. There was some accounting discrepancies that they got in trouble for as well but that was the previous company and previous management team. I’m not as concerned. I’d be more worried about alleged fraud in the product — a little book cooking seems to be par for the course these days lol. 

fmcfad01

Power rates in DC are up something like 44% in the last couple of years. It's wild. We had a Tesla in 2023-2024 and rates were 12.5 center per kwh. They're nearly 18 now.

No_Love_Gained

No immediate stay from DC Circuit today on the April order which now takes the timeline for final outcome to end of the year. Good progress nevertheless. Now focus back on ALJ decision/order and the next steps. Glta

YellowBananas123

Canadian troops sacked and burned DC during the war of 1812.  They started it.

1098duc_w_the_termi

Bears are beside themselves, driving around downtown DC begging (thru texts) Bessent’s staff for address to Bessent’s home.

homero1977

Like when Netanyahu came to DC and praised him just before he started a stupid war with Iran…

Radiant-Scene-5171

Whole AI DC sector down except for NBIS holding green

Radiant-Scene-5171

Out of whole AI DC stocks in red, only NBIS is green. Shows you your next Nvidia of DCs.

Lame_Coder_42

If only I hadn't been DOGE'd from my remote, federal employment at the DOE. But yeah, replace me with a contractor in DC that was hired on at 140% of my pay because that's how you cut the Federal budget.

Moneymma

If creating an app with better UI and analytics would be easy with “vibe coding” then why hasn’t apple or garmin or literally anyone tried to wipe whoop out? Oh, right, because they’re too far behind. It’s not a space they want to enter because it cannibalizes their core product line. The sensors on Whoop from an HRM perspective are on par with apple these days (feel free to read DC Rainmaker’s reviews, he’s the gold standard in terms of fitness/tech wearables). Without doxing myself, I know some Whoop C suite, and the 5 release did not hurt their brand in any way shape or form. Quite the opposite from a user growth perspective. I know this because their PSU grants triggered at some pretty large milestones in short order after 5.0.

Venous

4.81% for having your money locked up for 10 years. Are they smoking crack @ Washington DC.

hipshaps123

Alone the depreciation in all of these hardware investments are catastrophic. None of the innards in these DC's will be worth much in 5-6 years and all the compute was used on was free llm's and theoretical hype. Sure, some companies will be able to replace especially low end worker with automation... \*cough\* AI. So what? Is that worth billions in investments? I doubt it.

No-Cartographer3746

This reads like the intro to a Netflix documentary I'd actually watch The part about Brussels watching sanctions run through American rails and thinking "wait hold up" is the piece most people miss. It's not about faster payments it's about not getting locked out of your own economy because DC got mad at someone

Radiant-Scene-5171

IF YOU DIDNT BUY AI DC STOCKS IN THE AI REVOLUTION, guess what—JOKE IS ON YOU. That's why we are ripping now. 🤯🤯🙏

Radiant-Scene-5171

ALL AI DC stocks ripping. What I told y'all about AI? :shrek: :pepecross:

Radiant-Scene-5171

Another day another AI DC stocks pump again

Radiant-Scene-5171

AI DC stocks pump again. like who would have expected at this point...

Nutmegger27

He has lost his mind. Canada is our second largest trading partner after Mexico, purchasing $260 billion in products. And, with the exception of energy (which we buy from them at inexpensive prices), they run a trade deficit with us, buying more goods from us than we buy from them. This belligerent, ignorant moron in the White House has insulted Canada to such a degree that half have canceled planned trips to the US. Many are starting to boycott our products. He, like the drunkard running the Pentagon, can't abide anyone who challenges him. In addition to destroying monuments in DC, confidence in voting, and environmental and health protections, Trump is hell bent om making enemies of our friends and sucking up to enemies like Putin and Kim Jong-Un. The big project appears to be destroying democracy. Meanwhile, the GOP Congress follows him like toddlers being promised a cookie.

Spy300

All you need is one decent season at Nebraska and you can be FSU DC

AaronOgus

Gas Turbines and BYOP for now. Renewables with battery storage later. Some CSPs are buying renewables and batteries for utilities to offset their new gas turbines until they can adopt greener solutions. RAM, HBM, CPUs, HDDs , flash, GPUs, and building DC capacity are the bottlenecks. All are under severe strain, and they all need to ramp together to build the AI future. The value is obvious, digital workers in the cloud. It’s a race to build them at scale.

steamliner88

Amazing! The American people sure knows how to pick’em. What’s next? Maybe rename DC DA, as in District of America? Or the Pacific Ocean the American Ocean? Oh, or maybe rename Arkham Asylum ”America, the hostile loonie bin”.

Shark_Inertia

Trump DC next?

ApathysLastKiss_

I'm so ready for the ufo to land at the DC mall, + the aliens to come out and announce *We're shutting this shit down*

Pitiful_Bedroom_6619

🥭: "The Mar-a-Lago Club is considered, by everyone, to be the Best in the World. It also serves as our unparalleled Southern White House, free of charge. " THANK YOU MR. PRESIDENT FREE OF CHARGE OMG, AND THE COST OF SECURITY AND TRAVEL FROM DC IM SURE YOU ALSO PAY YOURSELF.

Waiting4Reccession

50+ years of brainwashing that its not the answer. Placated by all the modern stuff. Disagreement on what the common goal should be. Half of them half enough money and dont care. Waiting for someone else to save them. Expanding police state makes coordinated action harder. The US is a big country, everyone cant just wake up and take the bus down to DC before lunch time. Lots of reasons.

Aggravating_Storm835

I don’t mean to say anything as a certainty. I’m not comfortable assuming 15x multipliers long term for anybody. Which is I why I lean more on the 5x assumption. If you want an extremely conservative base case, I’d do 5x sales at current rates, call it $1.8B per GW/year, and 50% dilution. That gives you an implied share of $21.59. Even with all that, assuming they only build everything they intend to and DC demand only remains steady, we’re still projecting >6x upside by 2030-2032. Seeing as how a lot of these companies (HUT / NBIS) like to price is many years of growth very early, we could see it a lot sooner.

Ok-Board4893

Pretty sure dems wouldve stopped AI and DC buildout very early which is the only reason why the stock market is going crazy

SenTedStevens

DCA? That's the airport near Washington DC. But yeah. I've learned to stay far away from bio companies. They're one failed trial away from losing everything.

BabypintoJuniorLube

They'll be too poor to travel to DC

beerion

Demand revenue isn't really sky rocketing. It's $100B ARR from the two frontier labs - which is impressive until you realize that it has to support close to $30T in total valuation across the supply chain. That's a 300x price to sales ratio. And it's looking more and more like the end product is going to be a commodity (open source models are nearly just as good). NeoClouds are basically going to be a commodity. Memory is a commodity. The only thing that isn't are GPUs...at least not yet. I honestly don't think that Nvidia will be able to maintain 70% net operating margins for very long before another competitor comes along. All the supply chain revenue is basically coming directly from outside investment - I invest $1 in a new data center, that DC turns around and buys equipment which flows out at earnings on the other end. At some point, those investment dollars dry up and the ARR at the consumer/application layer has to support the entire industry on its own. I wouldn't be surprised if this thing levels off at $500B ARR (still a 5x from here) and the supply chain normalized around 5x price to sales (which would still be pretty rich). That's a $30T valuation coming down to <$5T. Then the question becomes who can take the biggest slice of the pie...

PaperHandsTheDip

\> AI competency is massively overstated Explain the huggingface incident then, where 1000+ agents collaborated and hacked into it, undirected to do so. They evaded people pursuing them, established a hidden message board to collaborate & share their R&D. Is that "massively overstated" being able to hack into and take down a multi billion dollar company, undirected? \> Token efficiency is broken as models get more capable also. Which will undermine the limitless growth and huge profit margins these valuations are built on. This assumes constant demand. Demand has been shown to increase as token efficiency does as well. It's similar to what happened with the steam engine. As it got more efficient more use cases were found and demand for coal actually grew despite efficiency gains in its usage. Use cases are already known for AI tho... I often employ 5-10+ agents to work together on a task. If I could get 100+ I would. I'm maxing out my plans and so are most of my peers. \> Oracle is almost certainly going to be a ‘*pets.com*’ Oracle is a horrible example - they are in insane amounts of debt. They don't have a viable business model. Look at companies doing it right, not the failing ones. Amazon & MSFT - hit profitability on their DC capex. Anthropic - had their first profitable quarter. Nvidia - profitable and reinvesting 100% back into the space.

082426grateful

I wasn’t around in the 70’s, but I damn sure was in 2008. Fear ran rampant for about 12 months, mid- 2008-mid-2009. When stocks starting marching back up quickly in spring summer 2009, everyone who makes decisions on hiring people started feeling better. The damage to us working people was baked in, and would get worse. We were at 10% unemployment in spring 2009. U-6 (under-employed) was in the 20% plus range. Both the U-4 and U-6 are deeply corrupted now. We’ve changed in how those numbers should be calculated now, but I’m not smart enough to be able devise an alternative method. Those people sit in DC, and apparently aren’t smart either, or are in on the grift. Both of those scenarios are unacceptable.

GlokzDNB

Hyperscalers Most likely GPU will live more than 5 years as it turns out bears are very wrong on this and every quarter we get better sight on this point If so, margins are up from 20ish % to 70% for every year it can live over primary amortization Current 20b $ revenue growth we see is still fueled of 50b $ capex as new DC lags about 15-18 months(could be longer in the future) So 50B $ capex = +20B$ revenue * 5 years * 39% reported margin is 31b$ profit Now Amazon,google has 220b$ capex do the math

prestodigitarium

Look at the bottlenecks to scaling intelligence to insane levels from here, that should show you a pretty good roadmap. Energy, memory, storage, high speed networking. Besides memory, in the US, energy is the biggest bottleneck I see. SpaceX's space datacenter thing is largely a response to that, making solar into reliable baseload for this in a way that's largely immune to the datacenter political blowback. I think the Taalas approach is pretty interesting (basically hardwiring the weights of a specific model into an asic, so that it runs at wire speed, doesn't need memory to page the weights into a GPU, and it's many more tokens/joule). But if you have a model that's recursively self-improving, then taping out new asics for every iteration becomes a bit of a chore. But AMD recently bought them. I'm expecting really interesting things from them. I have money on nvidia (since 2016), TSMC and ASML (2021), Cerebras (2021), and SpaceX (since 2019). I think open weight models (thanks Chinese labs!) are likely to suck a lot of the profit out of the model layer, but I feel pretty confident that the companies at the core of the hardware supply chain will do super well as running models gets cheaper and usage explodes. I might still drop money on the Anthropic IPO, their revenue growth chart is absolutely nuts, and maybe they'll find a way to keep people paying them even as open models get good enough. Also, AMD chips like MI350x are becoming a credible competitor, but they seem to be very supply constrained, and when I was shopping for a lot of inference capacity a couple years ago, the people I talked with who were trying to run AMD's DC inference servers didn't have nice things to say about their maturity. But it's been a couple years, maybe this is finally the year!

erichang

The debt includes lease agreement between 5 years to 19 years, not counting DC built out delay. Also, data center hardware does not depreciates as fast as people think. Take AMD Milan servers (released in 2021) as an example. There are still plenty of neocloud renting them out. They are not on the first tier of pricing or service, but they can still earn very good revenue.

Fhyzikz

Just found out that 🥭 is cutting down over 100 of the cherry trees in DC for a stupid golf course. Those have been there for like 80 years. Is there anything this guy isn't destroying??

PrestigiousBed9457

I could use a couple darts and a DC right about now

confused_teabagger

wtf is T-Diddy cutting down Weeping Willow and Cherry trees all over DC and then bombing Iran and asking them not to bomb back? Is he finally completely losing his shit? I can't imagine Brent not hitting $100+ after these tantrums.

Inevitable_Cat_7878

I thought Trump was in DC. Or did he travel to Asia?

Spamsdelicious

Just the CAPS (except first words). ----------------------- U.S.A. DC DR GG CDC DJT

Trahst_no1

Because of data lag time a DC in China can’t effectively serve the US you dumb fuck.

TraditionalGas1770

I once bought Nikes for running and was a huge mistake. They were cheap and didn't fit right. Went back to Saucony or DC

FourScoreAndSept

He’s a dumb ass. I’m in the space. The “DC at all costs” investor class narrative is wrong. The rollouts have been making mistakes all over the place and the public is 100% correct to be asking questions

dgellow

We actually don’t know yet. Everybody is guessing. But one reason to depreciate them is that they are expensive to run compared to more efficient recent models. However, you also have other factors, such as the power supply in a DC (latest models from NVIDIA consume so much power they require different power supply and cooling system, you cannot just swap one for the other) 

DoobieDoobis

Yup! Except in East Coast urban cities specifically Black culture. I’m from DC and New Balance shoes were considered a symbol of wealth back in the 80-90’s due to drug dealers rocking them. This is because they were the first sneakers to cost over $100 in the area. When I went to college people kept saying I had on “Dad shoes” and I was confused because the 990’s were THE shoe to have. Now it’s funny how everyone is coming around to wear them.

Lonely-Alfalfa-1826

New Balance have always been the cool show in the DC area.

Maakus

Check my post history - Marvell and AVGO are the game changers as optics are utilized in lieu of copper in DC racks.

Rebel8787

Canada announced they’re renaming Washington DC to Maple hockey city 🤌🏾

niaqr

Come to DC they're everywhere

norcalnatv

Hyperscalers are 50% of Nvidida's DC rev, and shrinking as a percentage. Enterprise will be larger share before year end, so not much.

norcalnatv

Nvidia has the best data center CPU. The proof of that is they will soon be the largest DC CPU provider. People wouldn't buy it stand alone (like AWS and Meta are) if it wasn't.

Spinoza42

Why stop there? Just change the Mississippi into the America River, DC into America City, the Rockies *and* the Appalachian into the American mountains.... maybe change the phonetic alphabet from "alpha" to "America"? The possibilities are endless.

srhogan1984

24 states + DC have legal cannabis

Extension-Temporary4

Capstone Energy (CEPL) is a small, newly recapitalized power-equipment (turbines) company that has finally reached operating profitability (9 consecutive quarters of EBITDA growth and the last few have shown a small positive NI ~$2.8), with a potential data-center catalyst that is not yet reflected in the existing financials. Since the restructuring they went  from an operating-loss business to an operating-profit business while simultaneously growing revenue 24% and gross profit 45%. Total revenue of ~$106mm.  $20.4M of incremental revenue produced roughly $10.6M of incremental gross profit. That’s a ~52% incremental gross margin. And operating expenses barely moved: $28.9M → $30.5M . Not only are they selling their turbines but they also have a rental business that’s expanding.  $5.4M of future minimum rental revenue from owned/financed assets, plus another $2.4M from leased assets.   As for its turbines, it does have a slight edge/moat. First, its air bearing technology reduces maintenance AND noise — the latter arguably being more important given the noise concern w/ data centers. Second, the turbines produce 800vdc power, no need to convert, which means cheaper and easier install. This directly targets the latest generation of Nvdia GPU’s which require 800vdc. Third, the turbines can run on a number of fuel sources, not just Nat gas. Fourth, they’ve been in business for over 30 years, they have real knowledge and experience, and a diversified revenue stream — not just rentals but clientele. They provide on-sight power to oil and gas companies, BTM for hospitals and research centers, etc.  fifth, despite some misinformation out there, the turbines are very efficiency. They recycle the heat to power the cooling systems. They’re able to reach over 75% efficiency, all in.  At the last earnings call, they STRONGLY hinted that they are on the precipice of landing a DC deal. This is not  an  over hyped meme stock, or a pump and dump, like NUAI.  They are VERY careful with the language they use. Some quotes from The last call: “The types of deals now that we’re seeing, they’re moving into those phases that are more meaningful.” “When the customers start to do the real TCO models, we’re winning.” “It’s just a matter of time for us to march down the field and get some of these over the goal line.” And That “Some folks are just saying, ‘I don’t need a pilot, I just need megawatts.’” CEO mentioned that he is in talks with the “CTO of a major infrastructure player in the data center space.” Said mystery company is developing 1.5–3 MW sites, which is exactly who/what CEPL is targeting. And when asked whether this was an anchor customer, the CEO corrected the characterization “I don’t know if I would see that as an anchor customer as much as I would see it as an anchor partner.”

AlasKansastan

Every DC stock is absolute garbage next to NBIS. These crypto dipshits have fucked up the whole sector for two years straight

el-art-seam

On a flight to Jackson Hole: “WE FORGOT KEVIN!!!” Kevin in DC “I made the Fed disappear…”

imustbegthequestion

DC and Liberty looney toonz UNITED

HighOnGoofballs

I can’t explain the complete “why” but as someone dealing with these projects daily many do have connectivity as a major factor. And they aren’t always in the same DC, or even if it is they need dedicated lines from their “cloud” to the say hosted Databricks solution. Every query I make has to go from my PC to that data center. And every employee, customer, etc. And the bots are in everything now. Every web page, every meeting, everything

niaqr

speaking of pitchforks, I looked up that guy who got arrested in DC with a guillotine. Turns out it's actually not illegal to possess a guillotine, but it is illegal to brandish one

Abe2025

Marvell superheroes lost. Calls on DC

CallMePyro

So this AI bubble you're predicting is that Oracle has a few bad quarters and a single DC company defaults on their loans? The $700B of cash flow being spent by Meta, MSFT, goog, and Amzn still piles into NVidia? If you imagine that at some point they drop capex and go back to generating hundreds of billions in profits/yr, I'm not sure where there's a bubble to pop.

surmoiFire

DC beats marvel this time

Awkward-Mongoose-809

fuck mrvl, all my homies love DC.

netflix-ceo

I got DC as a hedge

PaperHandsTheDip

\> You expect past performance to be indicative of futur performance But... I don't lol. I'm looking at the growth rate, which is forward looking. It's actually the opposite, you're looking backwards. I pointed out that it's growing at insane rates, gave a reason why I think it's doing so (IE: anecdotal evidence), suggested that it still has a large room to grow, and that the investments actually make sense at these levels (ie: anthropic is reaching profitability). Re: the selling shovels (nvda) - Anthropic isn't the one buying GPU's by the millions. It's the hyperscalers (ie: MSFT & AMZN). Of which... both reported reaching profitability on their DC capex. Anthropic doesn't even buy GPU's... it rents them from the hyperscalers and sells a service. They also reached profitability. That means the shovel sellers are profitable, the shovel buyers are profitable, and the people using the shovels are... also profitable. The entire thing is looking profitable to me with massive room to grow. Yes - the trade was funded via trillions of dollars worth of debt (ie: hyperscalers) - but its looking sustainable based on everyones recent ER's. It's worth significantly more than $500b lol, there is already well over $100b being spent on consuming AI services.

PaperHandsTheDip

Tokens are essentially the train of thought - ie: how they communicate ideas / logic with each other. Think of something like your brain, you only think at a couple words per second (your consciousness). You can communicate that to other people via talking, typing, etc. It doesn't use very much data / bandwidth to communicate. All that thinking to type out a single letter / word. AI is very similar in this aspect. All the DC / compute / power is being poured into having high quality thoughts. That is incredibly complex / compute heavy. But after the thought is processed - it doesn't take much data to send it out there.

Open_Pollution_8038

I was in DC when the UFC game was going on and tbh the condition of the White House is pretty much how I’d describe this guys presidency. He’s destroyed half the building and is sitting in a foldout chair on the front lawn watching a cage match.

Legomaster1963

People, you should boycott DC (doesn't matter the party; they are all in it together) and billionaires' houses; look at the root of the problem. Especially from the physics law point of view, the collapse or "the event" is inevitable. It's a matter of time, because, you see, 2+2 is actually 4, and not 3 or 5...So, if someone makes billions literally overnight, in their sleep, someone (wonder who) needs to pay for that.

redtiber

start googling how to make a dirty bomb, and how to sneak things into DC and then eventually the boys in navy windbreakers with yellow writing will take care of this mess for you

torokunai

so why does anybody consider this a sane policy if we want to slow down DC investment (which itself may or may not be sane policy, but that is a separate question)

lasooch

I’m not sure how many chips they actually have tbh, a lot of the DC buildout is hyperscalers and usually via SPVs. Haven’t looked into what exactly is known about that though, maybe they have some capacity they own rather than rent.

version-two

It’s pretty apparent the Street isn’t worried about the AI bubble. They’re worried about the fucking clown show in DC nuking the market/economy before we get to see the finish line. 🤷‍♂️

OhFuckNoNoNoMyCaat

$80-90B cash on hand according to the last disclosure from a couple months ago. $17B to be paid out to plaintiff states and DC territory **over a 10 year span.**

FuckleUp

10p in DC. Plenty of time left for a juicy 🌮

Tea-Swiz

As a techie the whole idea of data centers in space at this stage pisses me off. People like Elon-Dipshit-Musk keep hyping AI data centers in space like it's a solved engineering problem, but the actual physics and logistics work against it **hard.** Heat rejection is the killer. On Earth, data centers dump heat through air and liquid cooling, plus (crucially) convection - basically hot air rises, gets pulled away, more cool air comes in. In vacuum, none of that exists. The only way to shed heat is radiation, which is way less efficient than convective/conductive cooling. That means you need enormous radiator surface area per rack of compute, which adds mass, complexity, and fragility to every unit you launch. This isn't a minor engineering hurdle, it's the central constraint that determines how dense your compute can actually be up there. Thwn you have radiation hardening which eats the efficiency gains. Chips in orbit get bombarded with cosmic radiation that causes bit flips and degrades silicon over time. You either shield heavily (more mass, more cost) or accept shorter chip lifespans and more frequent failures. Unlike a terrestrial DC, you can't just walk in and swap a bad node. Then we have servicing and upgrades which are basically impossible in space. Cloud compute is valuable partly because it's constantly refreshed - think new GPU generations, hot-swapped failed drives, rewired racks etc. In orbit, there's no tech walking the aisles. A failed unit is often just dead weight until the whole satellite gets deorbited. You're locking in whatever hardware generation you launched with, in an industry where hardware obsoletes in 2-3 years. And all this is before you get to the delivery problem. SpaceX just moved its "orbital data center" timeline up to Q4 2027, but the vehicle actually meant to loft this stuff up, Starship, still hasn't reached the orbit needed for these payloads and has only landed its booster stage so far. Musk has a long history of announcing dates that don't hold (Cybertruck, Semi, next-gen Roadster), and tellingly, even Wall Street analysts modeling this out (JPMorgan) are assuming real scale doesn't happen until 2029+. Space-based compute might make sense for specific niches eventually (some argue solar power availability offsets some costs), but "AI data centers in orbit" as a mass-market alternative to terrestrial DCs runs into thermodynamics and maintainability problems that a press release doesn't wave away.

Heavy_Discussion3518

On the one hand, I'm still using Sonnet 4.6 for everything I'm doing as an SWE.  On the other hand, a friend of mine got a Mythos "Ping" from the government that his company's SSL stack had a glaring, easy to exploit back door. I'm going to make a bet that the DC build out isn't based on me writing 3 engineer's worth of code at a tiny startup.  

Snicsnipe

Dont We Require Positions or Ban for Posts like this? Where Mods? I do think OP you are right about the idea that these models are largely overpriced relative to their eventual capabilities and ROI however, you may be underestimating how long this party can be retarded before the Police return the downeys to their Wendy's labor camp. There have been alot of crappy 2000s comparisons going around these days but few will show you that the party continued well after the "hot" stocks of that market had IPO'd. We do move faster today but I would be remiss not to point out there is a fuck ton of money being set to be spent on DCs through 2030 currently. We got warehouses of NVDA chips waiting to be added to DC's that do not have their building/zoning permits yet. We have upgrades in technology as far as compute just getting better each year. Lastly, we have the China v. US dimension to this race. Either we win or the Yulin Festival goers win, we will spend alot to make sure we in the West come out on top. Funny enough it could be the FED raising rates again that sends in the SWAT team on this party.

MagnesiumKitten

It'll be interesting how in six to twelve months, Carney is going to crawl to Washington DC and beg for a deal Trump will say, resign, and I'll think about it. Honestly, no one cares about Canada, and if they can't make a deal with Washington DC, good look trying to attract international investment as some pariah state.

Ava_SAiri

DC

ObliqueTravel

> Any American not putting pressure on local representatives or out protesting is part of the problem. Why his government type came about And if our local representatives are already opposed to him and we live over 2000 miles from DC?

doctor_morris

I think this is one of the more sensible uses on the list. Near the bottom is applying mulch in Washington DC.

Aromatic_Base_3749

Terrified out of state National Guardsmen, cold calling Americans pushing federal junk bonds.  Only financial experience they have is a zero down payment on a car they can't afford and impending divorce. Grateful they got the call center deployment and not a summer outside of walking around DC.

Zuko2001

Even shittier, unless you’re in entertainment and need the job opportunities I have no idea what people find in that city. Even Miami is somehow better and that’s a cesspool too. SF is great if you’re in tech and just overall a better city but NYC/Boston are for sure the best cities in America. Chicago is pretty good too. DC solid middle of the pack

spez_eats_nazi_ass

They are all burried with Lindsey Graham. Going to need to wait for the next class of young lacrosse boys to move to DC.

tollfree01

You think Trump is building a bunker on the East Wing because they plan on giving up power to a Democrat? Cancel mail in voting for free and fair elections? National Guard walking the streets of DC until 2028 to lower murder rates? Huge detention centers for "illegals". Palantir contracts putting them in charge of following every US citizen. I mean...you could literally put that in a movie and the audience would know instantly what happens next.

iloverunning11

Yes, kinda. What you are clearly missing is that all these companies are overvalued af trying to chase a fairly small TAM (in comparison to their market caps) I think there might be one stock heavily invested in AI that will not fall down significantly and that is Google, their position here is great. Also, don't be fomo, AI has been part of this world for a very long time, it's not a novelty, only DC and hype around it is. Either way, the stock market will absolutely get hit here

Satins_Cock

Washington DC having insufficient mulch in some landscaped areas - "I'm sending in the national guard"

modder9

Tbf one of the worst places to build a DC would be TX. Hor, and they already have power grid issues.

Str8rDay

IREN got some bad press last week too - there are concerns growing about power availability (as if they haven’t existed already) but now they’re getting some more news. I like IREN a lot though. I think that could easily be at ATHs again before the end of the year but they need to get passed this DC hatred + yields issue like all the other similar names.

Molten-Helldiver

Anyone else watching the propaganda being spewed on this Indycar broadcast for DC race?

ThatsAllFolksAgain

If one were to compare the boom during the 50’s and 60’s in building factories and the current data center boom, are there similarities? I think not everyone loved the building of factories in their neighborhoods especially when they were not regulated and were polluting the environment and driving up costs for housing and other commodities but they brought in a lot of jobs also. Again similar to the DC’s. I’m all for building the DC’s. I’m not for the negative side of the DC building. If there was a compromise then it would be a benefit. But if the corporations just want to tread all over the rights of people and rob them while making off like bandits, I’d say no to DCs as well.

meltbox

While true the real question is what is the DC ROI. I don’t think it’s clear if AI can actually support the in progress builds. We also already know for a fact Nvidia is far outselling installable capacity so unless the companies want to keep buying chips to stuff in warehouses it isn’t sustainable. If Nvidia goes all semis go and the buildout stops. Them not stopping entirely rests on OpenAI and Anthropic being able to pay over $1T a year which is extremely unlikely given it’s more than all software. I just cannot see how this possibly ends without a crash.

Tallwhitedude123

Here’s what you’re not understanding. To break inflation requires breaking the government, not just some corporations in the stock market. It’s the US government that can’t afford to pay the high interest rates on bonds that would be needed to lower inflation back to 2.0%. Our debt went from $20T to $40T in 10yrs. That’s 100% debt growth in 10yrs. What did we get for it economically? 72% GDP growth. So bad debt. The problem is that nobody in DC has the courage to stop the spending and let’s be honest, it would be political suicide. Raise taxes? Political suicide. Cut spending? Political suicide. The country is divided and no one can agree on how to fix the debt and deficit.

Tallwhitedude123

You’re proving my point, do you realize that? Bessents moves are ONLY THE BEGINNING which is why money is flocking to gold and bitcoin now. The amount of QE needed to fix this will be MASSIVE because our debts and deficits are the biggest they’ve ever been. Of course, QE doesn’t fix anything. It only pushes the problem out further. The gold and bitcoin know one simply fact: the government has NO CHOICE but to keep printing money. It’s the American citizens paying for this all through higher inflation because they can’t get together in DC and cut spending/raise taxes because that’s political suicide. All of this is bullish gold and bitcoin until there’s signs it will stop

Salt-Specific8814

I design these clusters. Its actually more expensive if its louder because that means the DC rooms are not properly insulated and and if sound is getting out so is heat and thats gonna be bad... so the operators are highly incentivized not to be loud