Reddit Posts
1 Month Update/Retrospective on broken wing butterfly/condor strategy.
Histogram Insights on 1-15 Day Returns Across Various Assets
GLD move after Bitcoin ETF approval
Deciding REITS for my portfolio. But lack the confidence in knowing how to valuate each choice.
GLD (Gold ETF) Jan 2026 OTM Long Call. Good idea or not?
Lower Cost ETFs: SPY vs VOO, QQQ vs QQQM, GLD vs GLDM, etc
US and Venezuela agree to prisoner swap because US knows Venezuela is about to invade Guyana and the US will have to intervene. Long oil
Thoughts on gold and silver as a trade
Doubled account. What next?
Starting my investing journey. Gonna put 40% each in VOO and QQQM and 20% into GLD so what is everyone’s opinions on these?
Starting my investing journey. Gonna put 40% each in VOO and QQQM and 20% into GLD so what is everyone’s opinions on these?
Diversifying a portfolio that is heavily correlated with SPY
GLD briefly pulled back to the 180 head and shoulders neckline this morning.
Grid Metals Announces Final Drill Results from Donner Lake Supporting a Maiden Resource Estimate by the End of June
Stock suggestions for quick gains and long term holding
GLD Trade Analysis: Are You Too Dumb To Predict Stock Prices? Me Too.
Inflation To Moon On Supply Side Risk
The Advantages of Futures Options Trading over Stock Options: I Increased My Profits 4X
The Advantages of Futures Options Trading over Stock Options: I Increased My Profits 4X
Gold and Gold Miners are about to RIP FACES!
Thoughts on this? Could this lead to a GLD gamma squeeze?
Precious metals, miners give up recent gains as banking fears ease (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gold shines through the chaos as investors seek safe haven (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Banks are a melting pot and SAfe heavens are back.
Can the Fed really dare not raise rates next week? Who would have thought that gold could rise 6% in a week?
Can the Fed really dare not raise rates next week? Who would have thought that gold could rise 6% in a week?
Miners rise with gold and silver prices on bank sector worries, jobs data (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Anyone invested in a gold or other commodity ETF?
Gold books best week since mid-January as dollar, Treasury yields pull back (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Q3-Q4 Blood Bath? How to play stock Armageddon?
Gold slides below $1,900 after stronger than expected U.S. jobs report (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gold and silver prices seen rising this year, analyst survey says (NYSEARCA:GLD)
1.1 million people are dead from covid-19. What's next for the economy, stonk prices, interest rates and gold prices?
Gold climbs to best level since April as greenback, Treasury yields slide (NYSEARCA:GLD)
GDXU, JNUG, GLD going to the moon!!!!! I am up 108% in 3 months!!!!!!!
Looking for alternatives to GLD ETF for European investors
Study finds that COVID was the leading cause of death globally in 2021
BREAKING NEWS: Study finds that COVID was the leading cause of death globally in 2021
How does this EMP look in terms of stability and viability?
The progress on inflation using pairs trades
Stop pushing $SPY and $VOO as the answer to everything.
2022-11-09 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-10 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-04 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
How to Fight Russia with Gold and Oil
I derive pleasure from market pain🌈🌈🌈🐻🧸📉=📈🕺
no one can tell me this isnt peak diversification
Central bank net purchasers rise for third consecutive month $GOLD $GLD More Net Buyers Of Gold Then Sellers
Why Gold is The Best Play | Hint: Not Because of A Recession
Trinary Event Horizon - The Fed Has to Choose - Bet The Farm on Tech or Revive Volcker
Unsolicited Technicals post FOMC Update
Gold Is Holding Up as Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto Plunge $GLD, $GDX, $GOLD
Both bonds and gold have been resisting the last few days of selling, and if March 2020 is anything to go by, that is a very good sign for the market.
Week of 6-13-22: Most Important Charts #004
Week of 6-13-22: Most Important Charts #004
Mentions
Shorted some GLD around 383.5, SLV at 48.1; betting on dollar strength in next week.
Whenever wsb jumps on something it's gonna crash and burn GLD, Googl List is growing lol
Gimme just a lil more GLD pump and I'll be a good boy I swear
Think I'm going to do a large buy into GLD. I'm overloaded with tech stocks and when the money printers turn on and dollar goes down I think long term it's a solid play
Why the fuk is GLD dropping(
GLD continues to exceed expectations
Not enough talk about GLD calls it's so easy
Why should I be worried about holding GLD in my Roth? I'd love a good reason to invest that money somewhere else right now
so what’s GLD resistance level it needs to break?
Yuhh cut the rates. GOOG will go fking insane, Meta will go stupid, GLD will gap again.
Yuhh cut the rates. GOOG will go fking insane, Meta will go stupid, GLD will gap again.
You're welcome, and I'm glad you're trying it! I've been loving XBI since 10/22, and added XLV and XPH more recently because they screened in for 2 ETFs I was cutting. I AM very concentrated in that area though, aren't I? But I don't look for ETFs that I *think* might do well; I simply find the ones that *are* doing well. Have you seen [how I screen on Barchart](https://imgur.com/a/etf-screening-on-barchart-G2Q5UWp)? You might need to pay for Barchart Plus to be able to do some of the steps, but the Flipcharts feature is more than worth it to me. But however you screen, **look at charts**, and look for *smoooooth*. I'll pick an ETF that's doing 'just' 2% a month over one that's doing 10% if it's a smoother ride. Because I know I can leverage that to something like 6%/month, and that's enough for anybody. And I don't have to worry too much about buying in on the wrong day and it tanks a day or three after. Because that hurts when you're buying LEAPS Calls. I just screened again, 3-month performance, Has Options, Volume >700k, then looking at 6-month charts: **XBI** was #1. That thing is up 53% over 6 months. Buy the 90-delta Call at 388DTE and you're getting 3.1x leverage after adjusting for Delta. That's huge. Silver and its miners, plus the gold miners GDX & GDXJ were next, and they're making me think it might be time for me to get back into precious metals. **IBB** was next, but of course it's another biotech. Still, 40% over 6 months, and look how smooth. Then **GLD** and other gold ETFs. Gold had a great runup since late 2023, and I caught some of it this year, but gave some of it back too after the peak on 10/20. I'll probably get back in if/when gold clears 4,200. Take care, Mike
Great post. Questions, why is GLD taxed higher than physical gold? How would refinancing treasuries bankrupt the Federal Reserve (doesn’t issue treasuries)? The Mag 7 stocks are at a PE of 32, in your example the Nifty 50 was at a PE of 50. Do you believe we prices will drive the Mag 7 PE to 50 this cycle?
Owning $GLD is more exciting than $ARCH and $RIVN. Glad I parted ways
What nonsense is that? SLV etf started in 2006, 19Y ago. It was 13$. Now 48$. GLD was 65 back in that time, now 380. So meanwhile silver did X4 gold did x5.5. So gold has more room to fall in a correction
From Claude Opus 4.5 🔍 CRITICAL ANALYSIS: REDDIT GOLD THESIS VERDICT: PARTIALLY VALID THESIS WITH SIGNIFICANT EXAGGERATIONS AND OMISSIONS ## ✅ CLAIMS THAT ARE **VERIFIED & ACCURATE** **1. Interest Payments at $970B in FY2025** Interest payments on the national debt totaled $970 billion, surpassing spending on national defense . This is the **third-largest federal government expenditure** behind Social Security and Medicare. **2. Central Bank Gold Buying at Record Levels** Central banks have accumulated over 1,000t of gold in each of the last three years, up significantly from the 400-500t average over the preceding decade. The claim that central banks are buying gold “at rates not seen in decades” is **TRUE**. **3. Gold Now Exceeds US Treasuries in Central Bank Reserves** Gold’s share of global reserves climbed to about 18% in 2024, up sharply from mid-2010s levels. According to the IMF, gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the world’s dominant reserve asset. **4. CBO Projection of Rising Interest Costs** The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if current laws generally remain the same, net interest payments will total $13.8 trillion over the next decade, rising from an annual cost of $1.0 trillion in 2026 to $1.8 trillion in 2035. The Reddit post said $2.6T by 2035 - CBO says $1.8T. **Reddit OVERSTATED by ~44%.** **5. Gold Hit $4,000+ in 2025** Gold was trading at $4,121 per ounce at 10:05 a.m. Eastern Time today. Gold reached an all-time high of $4379.22 on 17.10.2025. Up **~57% YTD** - remarkable performance. **6. PHYS Tax Treatment vs GLD** GLD’s gold is treated as a “collectible,” and gains on holding GLD are taxable at 28%. Special federal income tax rules apply to holders of the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, because it is classified as a Passive Foreign Investment Corporation (PFIC) by the IRS. If a U.S. non-corporate holder makes a timely QEF election each year by filing IRS Form 8621 with their federal income tax return, capital gains will be taxed at either 15% or 20%, depending on your income level. This is **TRUE for US investors** ----- ## ⚠️ CLAIMS THAT ARE **MISLEADING OR EXAGGERATED** **1. The “$25.8 Trillion Debt Wall” Figure is Contested** The Reddit post claims 9.5T + 7.3T + 9.5T = $25.8T maturing in 2026-2028. The actual data shows: Over half of U.S. debt owned by the public (more than $14 trillion) will mature in the next 3 years. Most likely this debt will need to be refinanced. So the number is closer to **$14 trillion**, not $25.8 trillion. The Reddit post appears to have double-counted or used inflated projections. **2. Janet Yellen “Intentionally” Flooded Short-Term Debt** Yellen said Roubini’s argument “suggests a strategy that is intended to ease financial conditions, and I can assure you 100% that there is no such strategy. We have never, ever discussed anything of the sort.” By late 2023, TBAC recommended much higher issuance of bills because the dearth of new issuance had resulted in a shortage. Bills were yielding an attractive 5.5%. Deposits into money market funds ballooned from $4,600 billion in early 2023 to $6,000 billion by early 2024. Money market funds are big buyers of bills. The “intentional manipulation” narrative is **politically charged and debunked by Bloomberg Opinion**. The strategy had defensible economic rationale (strong bill demand, expected Fed rate cuts). **3. “We Have 2 Choices: Deflation Crash or Inflation Melt-Up”** This is a **FALSE DICHOTOMY**. Sophisticated economies have more tools: debt restructuring, gradual monetization, GDP growth, taxation adjustments, entitlement reforms, currency devaluation, etc. The binary framing is fearmongering. **4. China Taiwan “2026 Invasion” Certainty** The Reddit post states China’s army “must be capable of invasion by 2026” as fact. This is speculative intelligence assessment, not confirmed policy. Military capability ≠ military intent. The timeline has been debated and extended multiple times. ----- ## ❌ CLAIMS THAT ARE **WRONG OR MISLEADING** **1. “BBB Showed Zero Interest in Dealing with Debt”** The Build Back Better Act was primarily a spending bill, not a debt reduction bill. Conflating the two is intellectually dishonest. Also, recent tariff revenue of $202B showed some deficit reduction efforts. **2. “Official Inflation Numbers Are a Lie”** The Reddit post cites ShadowStats - a fringe website that uses outdated 1980s methodology. While CPI has limitations, mainstream economists don’t take ShadowStats seriously. The methodology changes were made for legitimate reasons (hedonic adjustments for quality improvements, geometric weighting to account for substitution behavior). **3. “Nifty Fifty Crashed 50-80%”** While true that some crashed, **many Nifty Fifty stocks (like Disney, IBM, McDonald’s) went on to deliver exceptional long-term returns**. The comparison conveniently ignores survivors. Cherry-picking. ----- ## 🎯 WHAT THE REDDIT POST **OMITS** (Critical Omissions) **1. US Dollar Remains World Reserve Currency** Despite all the doom, the USD is still 58% of global reserves. De-dollarization is slow - decades, not years. **2. Gold Generates Zero Cash Flow** Gold is not a productive asset. It doesn’t generate dividends, earnings, or rental income. It’s a hedge, not a growth investment. From 1971 to 2024, traditional stocks averaged 10.7% annual returns, while gold averaged 7.9%. **3. Gold Already Had Its Run** Gold is up 57.11% compared to the same time last year. The thesis would’ve been brilliant **a year ago**. Buying now is buying AFTER the move, not before. **4. Central Bank Buying Could Slow** Turkey flipped from buyer to seller in mid‑2024 to manage its domestic gold market. Central bank gold purchases are rate‑insensitive: purchases averaged 450 t/yr in the high‑yield 1990s versus almost zero net buying when rates were near zero (2001‑09). ----- ## THE UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH The Reddit post reads like it was written **after** gold’s run to justify a position the author already holds (“Position: basically entirely PHYS”). This is classic **confirmation bias** - finding reasons to support an existing belief. A year ago, this thesis would have been brilliant. Today, it’s rationalizing buying at the top.
If your not porting GLD idk what to tell you lol
gorgeous glorious glamorous gilded GLD
GLD breaking 382 would be pretty cute
GLD does hold physical gold. GLDM is the same but much cheaper (0.1% expense ratio) PHYS costs 0.35% If you’re holding in an IRA the tax rate is immaterial and so GLDM is your best bet.
I would much rather keep SLV than GLD. After all is more difficult to find silver in stores than gold, has much less market cap and against gold slightly correction which might be as well with markets should behave better
GLD calls is free money
I agree that gold is the move. However GLD is just fine if you don't plan to hold long term. Otherwise GDX is a good alternative. I like options so these ETFs are preferred
everyone's selling NVDA & BTC and buying GOOG & GLD.. you all have commitment issues
everyone's selling NVDA & BTC and buying GOOG & GLD
Just so you all know we should've bought GLD leaps a year ago and deleted the fuckin app
# GLD rising, Bols are cucked.
GOOG, BABA, AVGO & GLD ——- keep it simple. Leaps on META cuz Zuck will not lose.
Gold is extremely volatile. It's worth pointing out you'd be jumping on gold immediately after a 25% dramatic increase between May and October. Gold has already run up a ton this year alone. Let's put it this way GLD between 1/2024 and today: +100% GLD between 1/2011 and 1/2024: +50% Gold was worth the same amount in 1980 and 2007, **no inflation indexing**
which one goes to 400 first - GLD or TSLA
The thing is, I have backtested all the inverse ETFs, and they never do good even for big corrections, you end up losing money. I am not gambling the market going to tank, I am just protecting myself and exiting any long positions, but I do not want to sit on cash until I get my buy signal. That is what I am asking, to put the cash somewhere that can follow the opposite as the market, some people are suggesting GLD, what do you think about it?
Thank you! I do not think it is going to tank, but I have a specific indicator that I follow and it is telling me to exit all my positions just in case something happens. It might be a week thing or a month thing, I do not know, I just want to not sit on cash until I get my buy signal again. Maybe the 2nd point is the best one, i have backtested SPXS a ton of times and it is never profitable in this scenario. And GLD... i am going to look into gold, maybe that is it. Thanks!
I sold half my GLD leaps this morning…
Watched some meme shit, GLD calls went from .18 -> .50 I did not pull the trigger on the 10 contracts I wanted
i hope you all got your Jan '26 GLD calls in before it does a 2x
GLD closed over $380 holy shit
Nah I still don’t trust GLD. Not after I got wiped 😢
Too late to get into GLD?
GLD / PHYS appear clear for takeoff into year end
ffs me too, if GLD doesn’t keep going up they’re gonna repo my kidney
GLD hitting 400 soon lol
GLD-chan what are you doing
Quick 700% on GLD calls. Could have made an additional 700% but I'll take it.
14% account day, GLD and SLV and crypto
SPY puts, red, GLD calls, green. My port, balanced, as all things should be.
Idk wtf happened but my 0dte $GLD 377 calls went from $14 to $140 in the last 20ish minutes
Big pop on GLD this past 30min
GLD please stop getting rejected at 377
will GLD go back to 400 before year ends?
GLD about to pop off once it breaks this resistance
I don't think we will see sub 300 googl at this rate However I'm getting the GLD vibes now Everyone piled on and stalled the rally
How much GLD do I need to impress Indian women
buying GLD like 1.5 months after the big bol run is pretty regarded
GLD come on you piece of shit
No clue why GLD is green
Everything is green except NFLX ETH and GLD
Come on GLD let’s see 380$
GOOG & GLD for the win over the next 12 months
$GLD is the best I could find if you don't want the miners.
GLD and IAU are the same as GLDM and IAUM but more expensive to hold
I believe so. GLD is an S&P product, I'd be surprised if it doesn't have 20 years of trading history now. IAU is an iShares product, I don't think it's quite as large, but has no less 'integrity'. Both of these are traded on major stock exchanges, never *didn't* follow FINRA and similar regulations. >Do these actually hold gold and are audited? I'd be surprised if they weren't backed by at least 90% gold reserves. Probably statistically and operationally close to 100%.
Why not GLD, or IAU? I recall that both are also optionable, if you want to something like a covered call or cash-secured put on gold.
Another trade idea for you friend. GLD above 378, GLD 387 C exp 11/28 or 12/05 (or do both dates).
With LEAPS, as the options become more valuable, the delta keeps approaching 100, which makes the option price move in sync with the stock. By taking profits, I reset the delta to a lower number and the option value becomes less sensitive to the underlying value. Let's use my GLD LEAPS as an example. I'll pull the transactions out of my activity log. I bought the opening GLD LEAPS at 51.05 per share on Sept 2. That was a call of 290. It appreciated to 66.31 on Sept 24. That's up right at 30%. For various reasons I felt like gold might have been near the end of the immediate run, so I took 15.26 in profit and rolled the GLD LEAPS to a later date and the new 80 delta point was a strike of 315. I bought into the new position for 51.86. On Nov 12 those options hit 89.25 and I closed them for a second profit of 37.39. Total profit is now 52.65. A doubling of my original stake. Even though delta is now higher and I move more in sync with the underlying gold price, I felt we might be at the end of the run and I captured profit. My new 80 delta price was 71.92 (strike 338) on November 12. Since then it has dropped to a value of 60.25. Down 16%. But I've captured earlier profit and remain up 40.98 per share overall. If GLD continues to decline, I'm getting lower and lower delta, which means it becomes less responsive to the underlying. That's what I mean by "lock in." A portion of my profits are safe even if that 71.92 drops to 36 and I have to sell by my rules of a 50% loss. I don't really expect that and I'll let the long term LEAPS play out for another year or so. If this was a taxable account, I would probably go about it differently. Since it's a tax advantaged account, I have no concern with realizing profit.
I actually avoid those type of women, soon as a woman starts to act like buttcorn, I flee to a women who acts more like VOO or GLD
Long call LEAPS offer leverage and risk disproportionate to owning the stock. My long LEAPS strategy is informed in part by Lawrence McMillan's book, "Options as a Strategic Investment" plus experience plus listening to experienced traders' input. I trade options also, primarily for income. I consider LEAPS to be part of my investment strategy, not part of my options trading. For example, I bought the GLD ETF long LEAPS back before gold started running up. I'm up 200% overall on that while just buying GLD straight up would have a significantly lower return. On the flip side, I bought some META LEAPS after the big downturn that are down 30% due to further declines. You have to be ready for both possibilities. But I also take a long view. Being down 30% doesn't raise my blood pressure at all. If it hits -50%, I take the loss. If it recovers, I take the win. I still have 18 months for it to play out and that's forever in tech stocks. I target 20% of my investment portfolio on long LEAPS plays and the rest on regular stock. I go as far out as I can at 80 delta. Make sure you understand what theta decay does to your positions. If I get within 6-9 months of expiration I start deciding what to do with the position, sell or roll out, because that's when theta decay will start to kick in for real. As I said earlier, I will exit any LEAPS position if I lose 50% of my investment. I also have thresholds where if the stock goes up quickly and the LEAPS gains a lot of value, I'll roll the position to "lock in" my profits regardless of what happens to the underlying. my current GLD LEAPS is underwater because I took profits previously. Again, I lose no sleep. It's a long term play. I'm not saying you should do all these things. My point is that with education and applying some fundamentals, you can come up with your process that fits with your overall plans and goals. You need to figure out where LEAPS fits in your portfolio, if at all. LEAPS as a leveraged bullish investment is a long term play and if you live and die by the unrealized gains and losses in the near term, they may not be for you. I care about where they end up. Well, within reason. (watching you META flirting with that -50%). Having said that, I also have a fair amount of LEAPS diversity both in quantity and sectors. With the massive up and downside potentials, diversity is a good thing to smooth things out.
only sure thing i can think of is once JPow kicks on QE, GLD leaps
Very bullish on rotation back into tech after the last few weeks’ selloff. Earnings good guidance good rate cut Dec/Jan looking good. BTC, GLD, DXY not so much.
I fully relate. I was up 50k from GLD and a few AVGO calls and we had a few days where I thought hard about selling because I was close to just buying a truck I am considering but needed about 20k more to really pull the trigger. I literally was walking on the promenade of a cruise ship by the Rolex store and had the thought, why don’t I go buy a Rolex? At least that’ll store value. Talked about it to myself for days when we were out to sea. Got back still accounts we way up so I held. Actually I didn’t something worse. I rolled forward my calls from January and march to November to “lock in my gains”. What could go wrong? Well we both know what happened. The premarket rug pull was savage. I nearly doubled back in at 385 with those earnings at least this time with January 26 calls just like you with all the winnings I had. It was brutal but I did sell all in the 375 range. I actually opened a futures account specifically for this reason. Those calls were locked in purgatory and the market fell premarket. I bought 3 micro gold contracts and have been holding those as a swing trade. No theta. Trades 24 hours through the week. It’s pretty interesting to hold micros instead of shares or calls. You get like 5x leverage not as much as 3m out calls but you don’t feel with decay which is nice in this sideways pattern. Yes it fluctuates a lot but my trading plan is to hedge with gold for now. Learning to “trade” instead of just holding is tough. I have missed the big sell points near 4200 and it rode all the way back to 4k now around 4100. Gotta learn to cut and re enter when you want.
I made 130k trading options on GLD in October. I hadn’t traded options much before that, but have been day trading (off and on) for a few years now. I lost the 100k soooo fast because of my attitude about the money. It wasn’t until it was gone that I fully understood that it was in-fact real money, I could have withdrawn it, and I could have just paid off my house. I got gutted when GLD went from 403 to 360. I jumped in with options when GLD was at like 385 and it just knifed down so fast. My share holdings, some of which were margin, took the rest. I’m still up 100k for the year though. I tell myself that whenever I think about that other 100k that should have been.
Going to full port into Monday GLD calls Can’t wait to zero out
Can someone jork GLD a little, it's going limp and needs a fluffer.