Reddit Posts
1 Month Update/Retrospective on broken wing butterfly/condor strategy.
Histogram Insights on 1-15 Day Returns Across Various Assets
GLD move after Bitcoin ETF approval
Deciding REITS for my portfolio. But lack the confidence in knowing how to valuate each choice.
GLD (Gold ETF) Jan 2026 OTM Long Call. Good idea or not?
Lower Cost ETFs: SPY vs VOO, QQQ vs QQQM, GLD vs GLDM, etc
US and Venezuela agree to prisoner swap because US knows Venezuela is about to invade Guyana and the US will have to intervene. Long oil
Thoughts on gold and silver as a trade
Doubled account. What next?
Starting my investing journey. Gonna put 40% each in VOO and QQQM and 20% into GLD so what is everyone’s opinions on these?
Starting my investing journey. Gonna put 40% each in VOO and QQQM and 20% into GLD so what is everyone’s opinions on these?
Diversifying a portfolio that is heavily correlated with SPY
GLD briefly pulled back to the 180 head and shoulders neckline this morning.
Grid Metals Announces Final Drill Results from Donner Lake Supporting a Maiden Resource Estimate by the End of June
Stock suggestions for quick gains and long term holding
GLD Trade Analysis: Are You Too Dumb To Predict Stock Prices? Me Too.
Inflation To Moon On Supply Side Risk
The Advantages of Futures Options Trading over Stock Options: I Increased My Profits 4X
The Advantages of Futures Options Trading over Stock Options: I Increased My Profits 4X
Gold and Gold Miners are about to RIP FACES!
Thoughts on this? Could this lead to a GLD gamma squeeze?
Precious metals, miners give up recent gains as banking fears ease (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gold shines through the chaos as investors seek safe haven (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Banks are a melting pot and SAfe heavens are back.
Can the Fed really dare not raise rates next week? Who would have thought that gold could rise 6% in a week?
Can the Fed really dare not raise rates next week? Who would have thought that gold could rise 6% in a week?
Miners rise with gold and silver prices on bank sector worries, jobs data (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Anyone invested in a gold or other commodity ETF?
Gold books best week since mid-January as dollar, Treasury yields pull back (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Q3-Q4 Blood Bath? How to play stock Armageddon?
Gold slides below $1,900 after stronger than expected U.S. jobs report (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gold and silver prices seen rising this year, analyst survey says (NYSEARCA:GLD)
1.1 million people are dead from covid-19. What's next for the economy, stonk prices, interest rates and gold prices?
Gold climbs to best level since April as greenback, Treasury yields slide (NYSEARCA:GLD)
GDXU, JNUG, GLD going to the moon!!!!! I am up 108% in 3 months!!!!!!!
Looking for alternatives to GLD ETF for European investors
Study finds that COVID was the leading cause of death globally in 2021
BREAKING NEWS: Study finds that COVID was the leading cause of death globally in 2021
How does this EMP look in terms of stability and viability?
The progress on inflation using pairs trades
Stop pushing $SPY and $VOO as the answer to everything.
2022-11-09 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-10 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-04 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
How to Fight Russia with Gold and Oil
I derive pleasure from market pain🌈🌈🌈🐻🧸📉=📈🕺
no one can tell me this isnt peak diversification
Central bank net purchasers rise for third consecutive month $GOLD $GLD More Net Buyers Of Gold Then Sellers
Why Gold is The Best Play | Hint: Not Because of A Recession
Trinary Event Horizon - The Fed Has to Choose - Bet The Farm on Tech or Revive Volcker
Unsolicited Technicals post FOMC Update
Gold Is Holding Up as Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto Plunge $GLD, $GDX, $GOLD
Both bonds and gold have been resisting the last few days of selling, and if March 2020 is anything to go by, that is a very good sign for the market.
Week of 6-13-22: Most Important Charts #004
Week of 6-13-22: Most Important Charts #004
Mentions
Fucking difficult to see how the dollar maintains its status under 🥭. GLD SLV PLTM.
It's boffo for GLD and SLV.
Do not. I made the mistake of fully divesting my Target date funds, thinking I could be more “precise”. Let me tell you about GLD and BTC, both bought at the top.
SLV and GLD calls free money after the bloodbath. They have bottomed just like 🌈 bers
MSFT announces partnership with SLV GLD
I bought a 530 GLD LEAP last Thursday
I full ported into GDL instead of GLD. I belong here
50% VOO, 30% VXUS, 10% GLD, 10% into stocks of your choice that you see as high growth potential. Not financial advice, just an idea
I made bank on SLV in December and flipped it to GLD when I had enough to afford it for that very reason. A little too high on their own paper supply.
I made bank on SLV in December and flipped it to GLD when I had enough to afford it for that very reason. A little too high on their own paper supply.
SLV is so scary and idk how ppl in here are so brazen about throwing insane amounts at it. GLD i get a bit, but SLV is genuinely psychopathic behavior lol
Well I guess I'ma find me a pole made of GLD then.
The GLD calls to me, it tells me "Yeah man you can get over six figures again no problem, it won't be like last time I promise" Am I a whore for metals? Who's to say.
No. No I won't fall for the GLD trap again. But...maybe I should pick up some calls, as a treat.
I see you, GLD. Looking mighty fine tonight. See you back at 500
I meant like SPY 1% move can mean like 3-4% in regular stocks, so if you are playing something high IV for short term like SNDK, MU, GLD, PYPL, and prob AMD tmrw, u'll get to make more IF you get it right. Even if you have 10 contracts in SPY basically, each contract changes less in value compared to individual stocks.
You're absolutely right that returns aren't normally distributed and MC with GBM underestimates fat tails. That's a known limitation. But here's why it didn't matter for this trade: 1. **I had a defined risk spread.** Max loss is $5 per spread minus premium. Fat tail or not, my downside is capped at $414 short strike with $409 long put protection. 2. **I calculated CVaR (Expected Shortfall), not just VaR.** CVaR tells me the average loss in the worst 5% and 1% of scenarios. For GLD it showed around -10% and -17% respectively. My $414 strike accounted for that tail risk. I wasn't just looking at the 5th percentile and ignoring what happens beyond it. 3. **I wasn't relying on the model being "correct."** I used it to quantify how extreme the move was (2.6th percentile) and map strike placement. Whether the true tail risk is fatter than GBM suggests doesn't change that a 12% drop in a week was statistically rare. 4. **I paired it with fundamental analysis.** The edge wasn't "the model says mean reversion." The edge was "structural AI demand doesn't justify a 13% panic selloff, and the stats confirm this move was extreme." 5. **I was watching for regime change.** If VIX spiked again, IV kept rising, and fundamentals deteriorated, I'd exit. I wasn't blindly holding because "the simulation said so." You're right that another day this could lose. That's why it's a probability play, not a guarantee. But with defined risk, CVaR analysis, fundamental support, and real-time monitoring, I'm comfortable taking that bet after a statistical extreme. Fat tails cut both ways. If the model underestimates downside risk, it also underestimates upside recovery after an extreme move.
Yea sirski. That's exactly how I'm using it. The Monte Carlo distribution shows me where different percentile levels sit. For this trade: **Stop Loss:** If GLD breaks below $414 (my short strike), I'm out. That sits below the 5th percentile, meaning it would take another extreme move to hit it. If that happens, the thesis is broken. **Exit/Profit Target:** I'm watching IV compression and time decay. As IV normalizes and we move away from the statistical extreme, the position gains value. I could set a profit target like "close at 50% max profit" or "close when IV rank drops below 30." The percentiles also help with adjustment decisions. If GLD moved down to the 10th percentile level (~$416), I'd re-evaluate. Not panic, just check: are fundamentals still intact? Is IV spiking again? Do I need to roll or exit? So yeah, MC gives you: 1. Strike placement (where's the 5th/10th percentile for risk definition) 2. Stop loss logic (if we breach X percentile, thesis is wrong) 3. Context for adjustments (are we moving into extreme territory or staying normal) It's not predicting price targets. It's mapping probability zones so you know where you stand and when to act. As if u flipped a coin 100 times many times. This is answering the question:whats the probability of it landing heads 95 times? Thats what each percentile is answering.
The inherent leverage if it’s not cash covered. Recently watched some people blowing themselves up selling naked short calls on SLV (“how much higher can an actively traded metal really go?”) Similarly, sharp downward moves can be very costly with no other leg to offset the losses, and if I were to get exercised on 1 short put contract for GLD that’s $40,000 worth of shares I need to suddenly buy
SLV/GLD speed run to ath before the bers come for us pleassr
Germany's entire economy is a few trillion. NVDA alone is worth like 1/4th of that and they're literally selling the shovels in this AI gold rush. Every GPU they ship, every data center buildout, every AI inference cluster needs gold. Not as decoration. As functional material in connectors, PCBs, and thermal interfaces. When one company selling picks and shovels is worth a quarter of Germany's GDP, maybe the macro headlines about European banking or tariff noise aren't the primary driver of gold demand anymore. That's the fundamental disconnect I was trading. Structural demand from the biggest capex cycle in tech history vs panic selling on headlines. The Monte Carlo just helped me quantify the statistical extreme and place strikes with defined risk. The edge was recognizing that industrial consumption doesn't disappear because traders got spooked. And I'm up $775 today, $700 overall on the position. Not $200. The 414/409 put spread is printing exactly like the analysis said it would. GLD is at $463, miles away from my $414 short strike. You're welcome to keep trading without any framework and just winging it based on vibes. Let me know how that works out.
I can tell I’m going to net out like +2% on all my GLD calls and all it cost was a fuckload of anxiety
GLD and NEM calls
Yay my GLD calls will be back to break even if gld hits 370 lol. Sucks that I didn't have the balls to buy more calls Friday. Oh well.
Sell it all, buy GLD 3/20 500c, back to 700k in 6 weeks. YW
Far from certain but I guess GLD calls will print
I also got my education this week - entered the Jan 28th and thought I’d jump on the SLV, GLD, COPX game and that game ended on Jan 29th 🤣
I switched from gold to MSFT today so expect GLD 500 and MSFT 380 tomorrow 🤡
Which part is confusing? Heres an anecdotal example of what the graphs mean: You flip a coin 100 times a lot of times and one of the times you get 95 out of 100 heads. With the data you created from flipping coins, you can basically see the probability of that event occuring (the basis of frequentist statistics). I did that for the potential paths of GLD etf (gold tracking etf). Out of all the attempts only a few went down past 6-8% (5th and 10th percentile). Due to the fundamentals of gold and my perspective on the demand for computer parts that all have gold. I felt confident to place a bet on the gold that its price will stay the same or rise.
Thank god I didn’t sell my leaps for GLD 😮💨, I am already up 110% and still have 99 days left
GLD is ripping 🥰 Fuck the US dollar
GLD always recovers. SLV is a wildcard
Starting to feel good about reloading on GLD at $425 yesterday.
I knew GLD was gonna pop after selling like 75% of my position ugh
The dip was a reset on the broader trend. The GLD bottom at 427 was right in line with the resistance on the 6 month trend line. WSB thought it was a rugpull, because they're used to trading stupid heavily shorted penny stocks, not commodities with massive market caps. It's gonna keep going up until if/when long term expectations about US stability are resolved. Aka until 🥭 inhales his last quarter pounder with cheese.
Is GLD a dead cat bounce or back up?
Seems like SLV won’t recover like GLD.
I'm up 2.5 percent today thanks to:PLTR, GLD, GEV, ASTS, RKLB,AVAV and HON
The GLD bers have officially been wiped off the earth let’s gooooooo we back to ath soon boys
Short term GLD, long - both, but I think SLV will be more profitable.
GOOG will be similar...will beat, increase guidance, and will still go down. That's a wrap for me then, I'm done with options this week. Will just take my $GLD calls and puts gains and wish you all the best
The GLD and SLV options market are so interesting. GLD up 6%, 02/04c +700% SLV up 6%, 2/04c +72%
Watch GLD and SLV go up.
I hate the current state of the market index just looks perfectly fine, it's basically flat since 3-6months yes, but does not bad big caps keep getting pump and dump, holy fucking shit I can't believe MSFT of all got pump and dump'd, GLD and SLV as well everything is so degenerate
Me a week ago holding GLD LEAPs: fuck yeah, I'm rich! Me Friday holding GLD LEAPs: can't afford rope, when margin call? Me today holding GLD LEAPs: fuck yeah, I'm rich!
When does SLV and GLD get added to S&P500
Up bigly on GLD, down bigly on BTC. Feels like a good time to cancel them out and call it a day.
Turns out investing in solid assets means I’m green today - BRK and GLD printing
GLD and SLV will have there mid afternnoon pump to the bell soon
Shit, I think my GLD puts are toast
NOC, LHX, RTX, KTOS, COP, OXY, maybe GLD. Unsure about silver. Just look into defense and oil and i think you'll be alright, though might want to keep an eye out for the news cause 🥭 is prolly gonna do something stupid before talks on Friday.
SNDK is now red, market is done, GLD/SLV time
Imagine not buying the biggest dip in history on GLD and SLV. If you’re not making money in this market you might be regarded.
Closed out my GLD calls - what a ride from buying to +30% —> -40% —> -75% —> +55% 😂 now it can go to +500%
hope its not too late for GLD calls
Got a really bad fill on my GLD calls yesterday. Got stopped out since it went down further. Now it’s ripping because I no longer have calls
Well, I bought a few $GLD 6xx call options
If you'd buy the dip in October in GLD stock you'd be up 26%, SLV 90%.
GLD decoupled from SPY??
I know it sounds crazy, but I just can’t stress how banging hot this Doc is. Why didn’t you tell me to not buy GLD last week?
asts? Rklb? SLV? GLD? Crypto? boys need puts please some respond
Sooooooo GLD dead cat bounce… ?
Yesterday I brought 2 way out of the money GLD call options for funzies and they are over 500% now…. I’m so mad I didn’t buy 10 instead.
SPY down, GLD up: did we restart the simulation?
My trust in GLD 🥇 only keeps going up
GLD SILV back in biz
bought a GLD call right before market close yesterday & immediately doubled it up feels fucking great to win one (down 87% all time)
welcome the new meme stock: GLD and SLV up 6% after going down 10% last week. Incredible moves
Coming back strong from the brutal Bloodshed only proves GLD is the true safe heaven. Nothing will take 🥇 it down
SLV and GLD slashing through the evil bers 🐻
I was down $60k on Friday due to GLD and SLV, down $12k yesterday, now I'm making a comeback and up $16k today. I'm not giving up. TQQQ was a favorite but it hasn't been doing shit for the past four plus months.
Nice to see GLD/SLV up and SPY/Qs dying
Same, the GLD calls I got printed. Sold them.
Jensen must’ve shorted GLD and SLV
What a World, PYPL and MSFT PUTS, GLD, SLV, Fuck it all Metals Calls. SNDK is INVINCIBLE
Bought GLD August 430c at close yesterday, beautiful 30% overnight. Sold.
I want to invest in the gold stocks craze, even after last week's crash. GLD isn't an option for me due to 'restricted trading' ('no available KID' ???). What are some other good options? I live in Spain and use Interactive Brokers.
Its gunna be one of those SLV +15% SNDK +10% MU +7% INTC +10% GLD +7% days
SLV and GLD bulls created all these bag holders just so their homies could get in cheaper
People really thought SLV and GLD run was over in this economy
Bought GLD April of 2025. Sold half two days before crash. Holding the remaining thinking there’s a serious chance gold goes on very sustained run.
SLV and GLD are going to the moon again very soon! $125 by VDay.