Reddit Posts
Fed Preview - What Options, Bonds and Positioning Are Telling Us
For poor man 0DTE options, is IWM my best bet? 🤔
Would you have closed this IWM spread or let theta work?
Closed IWM $299.00P 08/05/26 for -$51,950.00 loss (-58%)
I model dealer gamma daily. Right now all three big index ETFs are negative-gamma below their flip,
June CPI missed big but I'm not buying the full rally yet
Small caps up 22% in H1 2026, best since 1991. Is the Russell 2000 actually for real this time?
Small caps are having their best year since 1991 and nobody I know is talking about it
How much Short float is too much float short?
Disregard Private Credit Liquidity Tests. Acquire BLACKROCK. Long $BLK
AI is disruptive. Individual companies have never been more volatile. What’s the argument to not just buy indexes?
Warsh's first FOMC presser is Wednesday and nobody seems to be talking about the dot plot risk
Week 5 - Day 5 - One and done option trade. Growing a small account $300 to $60,000
Week 5 - Day 4 - One and done option trade. Growing a small account $300 to $60,000
It’s SO fair! I LOVE you all I LOVE you all!
SPX at 21x P/E with 30-yr at 5.08% — is this a "mania phase" or just a new regime for rates?
What are Benefits and Downsides of a Long/Short Portfolio vs Direct Indexing?
I built the most honest VRP put credit spread backtest I could. 7 years, 5 symbols. Terrible
Broker that let's me set trades based off % of portfolio? i.e. buy as much SPY with100% of portfolio or cash available. Also set a time?
April NFP Preview: 60k Exp. Is a "hot" print the only real threat to this tape?
Built a real-time catalyst scanner - looking for feedback/if anyone interested
Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we acknowledge stocks are being propped for nefarious reasons?
Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we acknowledge stocks are being propped for nefarious reasons?
Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we acknowledge stocks are being propped for nefarious reasons?
Jeez what a roller coaster $5,300 in 5 minutes is crazy fast $IWM
Day 1. IWM $274 0DTE puts paid today. I wish I got in earlier but profit is profit.
SPY's the only short-gamma leg of the index complex right now
SPY Market Recap - Positive Gamma Floor, Iran Bid, VRP Trap
Dealer positioning read: $8.38B GEX at SPY 700, QQQ below flip, vanna -$181B
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
Selling premium right now but not really loving it
Started trading credit spreads last week! Looking for helpful info & opinions from option sellers !
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
What the hell happened March 9th??!!!! 🤯
You need to understand what is going on geopolitically
This is not a dip buying opportunity
THE MOST IMPORTANT NEWS TODAY FROM THE FED , THAT WILL MAKE OR BREAK YOUR BETS ON THE STOCK MARKET ?
Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Option Expiry (OpEx) strategies positions/strategies?
SPY and IWM lotto calls looking tempting.. 🤔
The Invisible Buyers: How Passive Capital Flows Into Small-Cap Stocks Like NXXT
Game theory on when VCs will pull the rug from under the AI bubble
How Russell Index Inclusion Can Change the Playing Field for $NХХT
I was digging through the FTSE Russell ESMA Compliance Quarterly Membership Weights document recently and noticed something interesting regarding $NXXT
Somebody knew....IWM put volume exp. today
Reasonable trader turned unemployed degenerate gambler
Quick midweek thoughts on market direction - SPY, QQQ, IWM
Weekly Market Map: SPY 681 Decision Zone, QQQ 600 Line in Sand
where to deploy capital in case there's a correction/crash?
Two Federal Reserve Members Say the Jobs Numbers Are Wrong. Revision Is Tomorrow.
Moving $ Systematic Book from IBKR to Clear Street: Custom Credit & Execution Latency Questions
AI Fear" Resurfaces in Software – Potential Sector Pivot Brewing?
Day 3 of copying my friends trades till I’m rich
Day 1 of 450-10k while copying my friends trade
Anyone land the jackpot at the spx casino today? 1/21
Vanguard and BlackRock Scaling In Slowly
Mentions
Feel like we get a Shrek cock on IWM tmr
IWM will have a 3% day outta nowhere
I’ve got IWM calls and AAOI calls
RSP and IWM tell me everything I need to know about this rally
Where’s the guy that bought $20K of SPY and IWM calls last week?
Even IWM likes higher interest rates!! Who knew it was good for them too.
Eh so we shorting IWM at the open right? 10Y real yields still high as fuck and we just got tightening prophesized for next meeting. All we need now is some Houthis to do what they do best
Sell index funds (ie SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM ,etc). Buy individual stocks you determine have real earnings and avoid those with fake hype earnings. People have manipulated the passive index formulas to line their pockets betting you wont look under the hood. This whole thing is predicated on the idea that retail is stupid and will blindly DCA into indices indefinitely. If the indices are boycotted then they will be forced to crack down on allowing this garbage which will in turn stop companies from committing this fraud because they wont be able to be in the major indices.
Nice work. It looks like IWM has been going down mostly lately. Are you betting things will go down?
Gonna do SPX next week. Familiarity mostly w/ trading IWM/QQQ/SPY. Put a decent amount of time looking at levels. SPX will be mostly new for me. Definitely gonna give it a go now though, had my first decent sized losses with IWM/QQQ/SPY the last 30 days and want to avoid wash sale.
Only thing that makes sense today is IWM
calls on GLD and puts on IWM
The Semis are what are catching a bid today. I have no idea if that will extend into tomorrow, but INTC, NVDA, and AMD all have had good looking charts. I like the look of GOOL with this pullback. MSFT is not so hot now that it seems to be losing the 20-day. AMZN is a mess. Wouldn't touch it until $235 if it were my money. I've been playing MU on and off, but I kind of hate it here. You've got about $20-$25 of upside versus $180 of downside right now based on where it's trading. AVGO is a dog's breakfast of a chart. I think I'd stay away until it can find a bottom around $315, maybe a smidge lower. If you're playing indexes, I continue to like the Qs more than the others right now. IWM and Diamonds are breaking down. Qs look a little more constructive than SPY.
Y’all think the guy who bought $10K of SPY and $10K of IWM calls held yesterday?
**BanBet Lost** — /u/Jobless-Dev (0W - 8L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **IWM** ▲ | $285.21 → $292.00 | +2.4% | 1d | Lost |
Where’s the guy that bought 10K worth of SPY and IWM calls expiring in 2 weeks?
Got just a few qqq and IWM puts just in case it tanks from the q&a. Nothing that will make me rich or poor.
Of course IWM pumped on rate hike 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
IWM doesnt know where it wants to go next 1m candles are literally cancelling eachother out
Hold me degens I'm scared 40x290$ IWM calls
Honestly after IWM went up 1% same day that jobs came in 3x of expectations and hike odds went up 22% anything can happen. We might even pump into a hike
Despite IWM being lower then when I bought and eating 3.5hrs of theta it's at breakeven. IV is insane right now. They'd either suprise hold and I'll get tendies today or this shit goes straight to 0
Pick your poison on any ETF really SPY QQQ SPX IWM More leverage with stuff like SOXL or TQQQ SQQQ Or gamble on some specific tickers that get blasted on here like MU or classic stuff like TSLA
Suprise rate hold, IWM 3% spike, my yearly pnl turns green. Then I wake up
IWM will fall no matter the fed decision....Russy is too price sensitive
I need a rate hold and IWM to go apeshit bannana republic today
Imagine the fate of your portfolio being in the hands of smallcap index composed of pure shit to move 2% up on the day. Anyway yolo deep OTM overnight IWM calls might not have been the move
Well, IWM has seen some of the most un-intuitive price action this year. Pure retard power. 😄
**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 0W - 7L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **IWM** | $292.00 (above) | $285.21 | +2.4% | 23h 60m |
Iwm with interest rates going up and all the companies within IWM in major debt and not profitable mmmmm good pick 😂
You don’t mess with the bond market. You must have more time on your hands than I if you want to begin a diatribe on short term and long term rates. The 10 year rate is the key number. The Fed controls short term rates not long rates. It still has an impact on longer term rates because of sentiment. The 10 year was at 4% a year and a half ago. It has been creeping up and once it goes over 5%. At 5% investors will take a guaranteed 5% instead of the stock market. Sounds like a good time for a Strangle. IWM & QQQ. IWM would be more cost effective. If you get down like that. The bond market runs the stock market long term. You’ve had 20 years of easy money and when money contracts it can get ugly.
Well I’m stuck with 75 IWM Oct 300s and 100 SPY Oct 800s. What could go wrong. At least I have NOC calls to hedge…
Loaded IWM calls lets go
25x290$ calls on IWM expiring tomorrow. Hail mary. Unless they suprise hold my trading port is fucked
So if they hike and say they are likely to only hold after the IWM should absolutely rip. It’s sold off so hard on interest fears, markets pricing it in at 90% alr. Buying more calls
Apperantly I bought puts for the strongest company in existance. $LPTH puts before earnings. IWM down heavy, SPY down, bond/oil ath every single day. This fucking thing is holding 9$. SPY can crash 20% tomorrow and hit a level 3 circuit breaker and I bet you that this shit won't go below 8$
Who knew that IWM likes higher rates. Amazing.
IWM falling off so hard I'm selling calls with 14DTE an eternity in WSB time
IWM hasnt priced in a hike yet i wonder if they really expect a hold 🤔
Another day, another nonsensical all day stall and fake pump from IWM when rate hikes are guaranteed and it has done nothing but cope pump for a full year and a half in anticipation of 4 more rate cuts that never happened and now most definitely will not happen.
IWM making no sense as usual
methinks i’ll buy some 0dte puts on IWM at open
RUT gonna drop cause I hold 100 shares of IWM easily top 10 dumbest bags to ever buy
IWM will do that till the official decision, people dont trust warsh just yet
IWM not even down 1%. Typical seasonal rotation
I bought IWM and SPY puts yesterday that expire Wednesday and Friday. We will see.
I made $3300 on puts today. IWM and qqq. Trading in and out. Pretty good.
the fact IWM isnt at 280 or under rn is astonishing given the circumstances strongest (or dumbest depending on ur view) market ive seen in years💪
so is this 9/11 market theory actually true and this is just being held up or are we smoking dick IWM barely even budged even with the traders pricing in 2 hikes by end of year headline (which is dumb but usually they react to it heavily anyway)
IWM is such a POS i need to ban myself from trading it
Funny thing about the bond tape right now: while everyone is arguing about how to save treasuries, somebody already put the biggest bond bet on the board - and it went the opposite way from the panic. Yesterday's single largest new options position in bonds was TLT **calls**. 106,885 contracts, roughly $900M notional, opened in the session right before a hot core CPI print. TLT calls pay if long bonds go up, i.e. yields come down. So that is real money betting on treasuries rallying, placed straight into the print that pushed hike odds higher. Either a contrarian duration view, or cheap convexity bolted onto a book that is already short duration. Both are real trades. For scale, the rest of what got opened the same session: * GLD puts - ~$2.97B * IWM puts - ~$2.44B * NVDA calls - ~$2.42B * META calls - ~$1.75B * SMH puts - ~$1.17B * TLT calls - ~$0.90B Gold, small caps, semis and high-yield credit all took puts in the same session that NVDA and META took calls. That is a book keeping its upside and paying up for protection. It is not a everybody-out panic, whatever the headlines say. One thing worth understanding about this data, because it is the part people miss: these are open-interest changes, not volume. Volume cannot tell you whether a trade opened a position or closed one. OI can - but it only settles after the close, so you are always looking one session back. It shows what got *put on*. It tells you nothing about who took the other side. I pull this off the tape every morning. It is consistently the most useful thing on the board and the least talked about.
Worth adding what positioning looked like going *into* this print, because it did not line up with the hike narrative. Largest **new** options positions opened Thursday across the whole US market, by notional. These are open-interest changes - what was opened, not what merely traded: * GLD puts - 74,750 contracts, ~$2.97B * IWM puts - 84,976 contracts, ~$2.44B * NVDA calls - 111,407 contracts, ~$2.42B * META calls - 25,776 contracts, ~$1.75B * SMH puts - 23,204 contracts, ~$1.17B * TLT calls - 106,885 contracts, ~$0.90B Two observations: **TLT calls are the odd one out.** That is a long-bond position - it pays if yields fall. About $900M of it was opened the session before a core print that pushed hike odds higher. Either a contrarian duration view, or convexity bought against an existing short-duration book. **The equity side is hedged, not bearish.** Gold, small caps, semis and high-yield credit all took put flow in the same session that NVDA and META took call flow. That combination reads as tail protection on a book that is still long, rather than a move to risk-off. Data caveat: open interest only settles after the close, so this is one session behind by construction, and closing trades are excluded. It shows what was put on, not who was on the other side of it.
Everyone is pricing the hike. The single biggest new bond position on yesterday's tape went the other way. Largest **new** options positions opened Thursday, ranked by notional. This is open-interest change, not volume - what got *put on*, not what got traded: * GLD puts - 74,750 contracts, ~$2.97B * IWM puts - 84,976 contracts, ~$2.44B * NVDA calls - 111,407 contracts, ~$2.42B * META calls - 25,776 contracts, ~$1.75B * SMH puts - 23,204 contracts, ~$1.17B * TLT calls - 106,885 contracts, ~$0.90B TLT calls are a bet on long bonds going **up**, i.e. yields down. Roughly $900M of them opened in the session right before a hot core print. Either somebody is very wrong, or it is cheap convexity stapled to a book that is already short duration. Both of those are real trades. The rest of the board is a hedge cluster, not a tech-crash bet. Gold, small caps, semis and high yield all got puts in the same session while NVDA and META got calls. That is "keep the upside, buy the tail", not "sell everything". Caveats so nobody reads more into it than is there: OI settles after the close, so this is always one session behind. Closing trades are excluded. And it tells you nothing about who took the other side - a put buyer needs a put seller.
If you want to know how the biggest books are hedging this exact risk, you can just read the options tape. Open interest changes tell you what was *opened* - not merely what traded. From Thursday's close (last fully settled session), the largest **new** positions opened across the entire US market, by notional: * GLD puts - 74,750 contracts, ~$2.97B * IWM puts - 84,976 contracts, ~$2.44B * NVDA calls - 111,407 contracts, ~$2.42B * META calls - 25,776 contracts, ~$1.75B * **SMH puts - 23,204 contracts, ~$1.17B** * HYG puts - 91,760 contracts, ~$0.71B Three things that bear on your question: **1. SMH puts are the literal answer.** SMH is the semis ETF - the cleanest single-instrument expression of "AI/tech risk". About $1.2B of *fresh* downside protection went there in one session. Not QQQ, not SPY. If you want the same hedge shape as the size, that is the wrapper they used. **2. It is not a one-way bet.** The same tape opened ~$2.4B of NVDA calls. The big books are not net-short AI - they are holding the upside and paying for tail protection on the sector wrapper. That is a very different trade from "rotate out of tech", and it is usually the cheaper one. **3. The company it keeps matters.** IWM and HYG puts were opened alongside it. Small caps and high-yield credit are liquidity hedges, not semis views. So at least part of that SMH put flow is a macro hedge wearing a tech costume - worth knowing before you copy it as a pure AI-risk trade. Caveat so you can weigh it properly: OI settles only after the close, so this is always one session behind, and it shows what was *put on* rather than direction. Closing trades are excluded - these are new positions only. It tells you nothing about who is on the other side. No position in any of the above.
Qqq down IWM down WHEN WILL SPY AND GOOG GO D THE FUCK DOWN NOW FUCK YOU
pretty crazy that on this yield spike days TLT underperforms QQQ and IWM. You would usually expect to see QQQ down 3 or 4% on a day like today. But its 2026. Semi's and circular financing companies are the safe haven
Can IWM drop like 2$ more pls that'd be very helpful
good news: IWM divvy next week bad news: bagholding this shit index
IWM about to put in a new low... hopefully...
Virtually guaranteed US fed rate hikes and we get this dump for ants, even on IWM spy 850 eoy i guess
IWM will crash 5% today
Looks like the PPI report, Silver, Gold and IWM price action is signaling a 100% rate hike chance this next meeting Lol. Imagine being one of the absolute IDIOTS replying to me the past two months that there is no chance they hike rates. THEY DONT HAVE A CHOICE!
PPI scorthcing hot IWM gap to 285$ my yearly pnl turns green. Shitting the bed otherwise
glad I didn't close my short IWM calls yesterday spot is back to yesterday's close and another day of theta burned
Bitch $IWM go down yields are mooning again you are up 0.20% making my anus clench but now you are selling again out of fear of yields good keep I have 0DE puts I need to sell for profit
SMH, QQQM, IYF, IWM or individual stocks in those sectors, always DCA. Just my 2 cents. Not recommendations.
If I don’t see a crash tomorrow ima be super duper annoyed got some IWM puts the most fragile index filled with zombie companies and the yields with oil mooning don’t help with these shitty Russel companies
Is anyone paying attention to $IWM lmfao easy money on to put side today
IWM 283$ tomorrow. Can't do a banbet but I lost the last 12 and broken clock being right twice a day this should hit
One of these days $IWM will crash 5% probably before spy and qqq
Can IWM drop like 4$ more right now pretty please
already hit 50% max profit on an IWM call I sold this morning rough day for russell 2000
I need IWM to drill down to below 290. Thank you for your matter to this attention.
S&P 500 equal weight (RSP) and Russell 2000 mid-caps (IWM) are grinding down, while SPY and QQQ are holding up somewhat more. Now even big corporations get to be on the poor end of the K-shaped economy. The only people that get to be at the top are the executives at the 20 or so mega-cap techs that grift everyone the hardest.
As I promised to myself yesterday I am buying dip on IWM just to make sure it doesn’t bounce back
Qqq has a long way down. And IWM the worse indexes to hold with high yields
IWM red. Its gonna be a good day
SPY, QQQ, & IWM have worked great for me. Buy out 2+ years. This gives the LEAPS time to cook while selling short calls against it. I’m up 60% ytd and 119% 1 yr.
Can IWM pls drop like 5$ for no reason
Im beating SPY, QQQ and IWM ytd
If IWM was a person , I would be getting a tear tattoo
You have already identified many of the best criteria to rely on. Continue what you are doing but make sure to keep an eye on portfolio level positioning. Keep individual trades small. Never overload on correlated tickers. Work towards a delta neutral portfolio (find some CCSs). Do some basic technical analysis to identify the trend regime and basic support/resistance before selecting a strike. Dig deeply into your trades before you place them to get handle annualized returns and expected value. If you want to trade successfully long term, all of these boring bits of business planning will be more important than being a great trade picker. It's about discipline. And, btw, you actually do not necessarily need to hassle with individual tickers and all their quirks. You can get a lot done using the liquid ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM, GLD, the larger sector funds, and the indices like SPX or XSP. These may not be sexy but sexy is not really the point, imo.
that's interesting, will have to look at it more. Actually, bwf have gotten to be my most common daytrade. There are lots of different variations. You can enter them near the close @ 1dte to make a 0dte ORB play. If you expect a flat market, you can set the front strike very close to atm and go (SPX) $10/$5 or $15/$10 for a pretty cheap ticket. If there is a lot of call skew, you can put the call flys in a correlated name to try to avoid it. I regularly do pairs trades with highly correlated or un-correlated names. For instance, I might do an ORB set up with RUT $10/$5 puts entered near the close on 1dte, and a similar trade with IWM in the calls. I'll scale down the IWM calls if I am leaning bearish., but I will try to make the smaller trade at least capable of covering the debit of the larger one. I do the same thing with NDX/QQQ, SPX/SPY, etc.
>Imagine not porting into IWM/UWM/TNA so you get SMCI (the first time around), sell SMCI as it rose in price to the midcap/largecap bag holders (the first time around), and then will automatically get it back on the cheap once is crashed again (automatically). All without needing to choose between holding a volatile cyclical stock that runs on hype/memenergy or paying taxes OP posting this shit acting like they are smart when they are a literal half-wit.
**BanBet Lost** — /u/Jobless-Dev (0W - 7L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **IWM** ▼ | $295.19 → $291.00 | -1.4% | 1d | Lost |
YTD Performance: 📈S&P: +12.75% 📈Nasdaq: +14.05% 📈Dow: +11.13% 📈Small Caps: +20.75% 🥇Gold: +2.51% 🛢️Oil: +59.16% 💵US Dollar: +0.89% ₿ Bitcoin: -8.82% \#YTDPerformance $SPY $QQQ $DIA $SPX #GOLD $GLD #Bitcoin $BtcUSD $IWM $RUT $USD
Oh no, I got no opinion on IWM, nor do I have any predictions. I'm just here to make money (SEMI's are running today, which I called yesterday). But, you keep it up little buddy, you're doing just great.
Its irrelevant and makes no difference to me. Now explain why you think IWM should be going up right now instead of coping and deflecting.
I cant understand why IWM keeps getting nonsensically propped up the whole day every single day, when all the data releases make the Fed MORE likely to hike. We got very strong jobs numbers, so now the Fed is even more likely to rate hike since employment can handle it apparently. The rate cut case gets weaker and weaker daily and IWM literally just waiting on rate cuts for years now and not getting them. IWM is due for like a 30% drawdown lol.