Reddit Posts
I model dealer gamma daily. Right now all three big index ETFs are negative-gamma below their flip,
June CPI missed big but I'm not buying the full rally yet
Small caps up 22% in H1 2026, best since 1991. Is the Russell 2000 actually for real this time?
Small caps are having their best year since 1991 and nobody I know is talking about it
How much Short float is too much float short?
Disregard Private Credit Liquidity Tests. Acquire BLACKROCK. Long $BLK
AI is disruptive. Individual companies have never been more volatile. What’s the argument to not just buy indexes?
Warsh's first FOMC presser is Wednesday and nobody seems to be talking about the dot plot risk
Week 5 - Day 5 - One and done option trade. Growing a small account $300 to $60,000
Week 5 - Day 4 - One and done option trade. Growing a small account $300 to $60,000
It’s SO fair! I LOVE you all I LOVE you all!
SPX at 21x P/E with 30-yr at 5.08% — is this a "mania phase" or just a new regime for rates?
What are Benefits and Downsides of a Long/Short Portfolio vs Direct Indexing?
I built the most honest VRP put credit spread backtest I could. 7 years, 5 symbols. Terrible
Broker that let's me set trades based off % of portfolio? i.e. buy as much SPY with100% of portfolio or cash available. Also set a time?
April NFP Preview: 60k Exp. Is a "hot" print the only real threat to this tape?
Built a real-time catalyst scanner - looking for feedback/if anyone interested
Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we acknowledge stocks are being propped for nefarious reasons?
Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we acknowledge stocks are being propped for nefarious reasons?
Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we acknowledge stocks are being propped for nefarious reasons?
Jeez what a roller coaster $5,300 in 5 minutes is crazy fast $IWM
Day 1. IWM $274 0DTE puts paid today. I wish I got in earlier but profit is profit.
SPY's the only short-gamma leg of the index complex right now
SPY Market Recap - Positive Gamma Floor, Iran Bid, VRP Trap
Dealer positioning read: $8.38B GEX at SPY 700, QQQ below flip, vanna -$181B
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
Selling premium right now but not really loving it
Started trading credit spreads last week! Looking for helpful info & opinions from option sellers !
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
Welcome input on my AI-powered monthly investment review workflow
What the hell happened March 9th??!!!! 🤯
You need to understand what is going on geopolitically
This is not a dip buying opportunity
THE MOST IMPORTANT NEWS TODAY FROM THE FED , THAT WILL MAKE OR BREAK YOUR BETS ON THE STOCK MARKET ?
Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Option Expiry (OpEx) strategies positions/strategies?
SPY and IWM lotto calls looking tempting.. 🤔
The Invisible Buyers: How Passive Capital Flows Into Small-Cap Stocks Like NXXT
Game theory on when VCs will pull the rug from under the AI bubble
How Russell Index Inclusion Can Change the Playing Field for $NХХT
I was digging through the FTSE Russell ESMA Compliance Quarterly Membership Weights document recently and noticed something interesting regarding $NXXT
Somebody knew....IWM put volume exp. today
Reasonable trader turned unemployed degenerate gambler
Quick midweek thoughts on market direction - SPY, QQQ, IWM
Weekly Market Map: SPY 681 Decision Zone, QQQ 600 Line in Sand
where to deploy capital in case there's a correction/crash?
Two Federal Reserve Members Say the Jobs Numbers Are Wrong. Revision Is Tomorrow.
Moving $ Systematic Book from IBKR to Clear Street: Custom Credit & Execution Latency Questions
AI Fear" Resurfaces in Software – Potential Sector Pivot Brewing?
Day 3 of copying my friends trades till I’m rich
Day 1 of 450-10k while copying my friends trade
Anyone land the jackpot at the spx casino today? 1/21
Vanguard and BlackRock Scaling In Slowly
Mittal Steel: Decade high breakout + insane fundamentals + play on Ukraine War Ending
Mentions
Swan dip iron buttcheeks forming on IWM 5m. If it continues, she gone
IWM is crashing, and it'll affect large caps sooner than later
Breadth collapsing. RSP and IWM breaking down. Market narrowing. 10yr mooning. Oil mooning. Confidence in the Fed collapsing. Hedge funds going tits up. Memory stocks pumping and dumping 300 points in days. Yea. This is probably where you want to take your profits. Raise cash and wait it out.
Looking at SPY vs IWM daily, you can tell which 1 is the meme
Again IWM pull through for me. 293 bruh
$IWM is going to bankrupt me…. Why are we RED??
SPY and IWM free fall, followed by QQQ
the worse part is i gave up day trading because i cant keep track of the market that close and have a job, and i fucking sucked at it. I decided I would just buy some shit and sit on it. •So here is mostly: NLR, VRT, SPY, VXUS, IWM, •with some under 300$ plays in: IE, IBIT, Himx, sldp, nbis, sqqq. and after a year to be in the negative is great. so i sold everything except SPY, VXUS, IWM put most my money in SPY going to wait for my 6k to give me 60$ in a year and buy some shotgun rounds and repaint my ceiling fuck this bs.
I really gotta take a look at whats been working for me. My retirement port is down menially in comparison to my gambling port, and the only difference is 3x versus 1x etfs lol. Maybe I should really just sell the rip, if it ever comes, and dump it all in my 3 fund port gradually. VOO/VXUS/IWM has been kicking ass for me and I should probably just stick to that
IWM 291 0dte put from 0.03 to 2.6 who had the balls?
Grabbed some IWM calls expiring Friday on the dip, LFG make me some dinner money.
gold & IWM mooning.
115% gain on IWM today
IWM calls or puts. if a cut or flat, buy near to the money calls. if a hike, buy far OTM puts.
For the first time in 3 months, I wasn't burned by IWM puts. WOOOOHOOOO
DIA +9.14% YTD (+16.50% annualized) SPY +7.73% YTD (+13.89% annualized) QQQ +8.01% YTD (+14.40% annualized) IWM +18.02% YTD (+33.56% annualized)
going in on IWM. call me lame... going to sell options around it of course
Look, I get it. We want to relate everything to macro fears if we can. This is not a macro/rate fears move though because I can link this to exactly where it began (and really that would be Broadcom earnings with memory just pouring gas on the fire), and rates were going down initially then, plus IWM is holding up well. This, believe it or not, is probably at least the 3rd time the Nasdaq has pitched a fit with it at least starting out not being US macro fundamental based fears in the past few years. Maybe macro pours gas on the fire again, who knows, the last time was EXTREMELY tricky because it looked like the Dow/IWM was going to hide tech falling flat perfectly for a good LONG while.
Not quite sure what you mean "on the way down to this level" . It's still up 18% ytd, and only down 2% this last month, and 3.26% from it's all time high. The IWM had three things going for it. Low PE and projected lower interest rates and projected lower inflation. There is a risk to that now. I'm surprised that it hasn't dumped, if that's what your point is.
And IWM is doing just fine.
What's been interesting to see is SPY and IWM both holding up very well
Low beta breaking out vs high beta does tho. Look, I'm just completely jaded from the past couple years. I think this Dow/IWM outperformance deal is going to fail to keep US markets up yet again, as usual. In fact, I think there's already been signs of a slow turn to boot too.
You still didn't tell me your DTEs for your money losing IWM puts yet. Did they expire on Friday? If not, how much are you down? [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1v56gxq/comment/ozi17ve/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1v56gxq/comment/ozi17ve/?context=3)
Right... and all of those are very sensitive to rate adjustments and we have all but confirmed rate hikes coming with the new Fed chair. Even without that, IWM has been on a tear and we got like 2 of the last 6 rate cuts that were priced in late 2024.
well i own KRE which is the regional bank ETF most of IWM are components
How does IWM literally NEVER move down. I cant fathom it. Can anyone even name ONE company in the Russell 2000? There is zero bull catalyst for that index yet all it does is go up an inordinate amount on no news and never go down.
I took the road less traveled by (IWM). That is going to make all the difference (at open)
Interesting split. The caveat about inferred dealer positioning is the key one. Have you stress-tested net GEX and the flip levels under alternative positioning conventions? OI identifies open contracts, but not who owns which side, so a central estimate with sensitivity bands would be more useful than one exact flip. How are you moving the volatility surface when solving for the flip: sticky strike, sticky delta, or a refitted smile at each spot? Holding each contract’s IV fixed while moving spot can materially shift the flip, particularly post-OpEx when near-dated gamma dominates. Are these deliberately ETF-chain calculations, or do you incorporate SPX/NDX/RUT and futures options? Without those, I’d interpret the figures as SPY/QQQ/IWM option exposure rather than total dealer gamma for the underlying indexes. The clean validation target seems non-directional: whether subsequent realized variance and short-horizon return persistence change with net gamma and distance from the flip, tested out of sample. Are you planning to publish that validation as the history grows?
I had a good week! Traded in and out of qqq. I lost money on IWM the other day though. I guess that was yesterday.
YTD Performance: 📈S&P: +8.27% 📈Nasdaq: +7.46% 📈Dow: +8.06% 📈Small Caps: +18.67% 🥇Gold: -6.20% 🛢️Oil: +56.43% 💵US Dollar: +3.25% ₿ Bitcoin: -26.26% \#YTDPerformance $SPY $QQQ $DIA $SPX #GOLD $GLD #Bitcoin $BTCUSD $IWM $RUT $USD
Haha ok, did you lose all your money yet on this puts? IWM has rebounded
I know more about options than you bro, I know the greeks. You are using outdated information, the greeks are made up now. No one uses black scholes to price options anymore. Look how linearized the options chain prices are now, you dont even see any exponential drop off anymore, its a straight linearized , AI statistical analysis price regime now. Gone are the days of options prices dropping drastically outside a 3 sigma move. SPX 0dte is the engine for market manipulation, VIX is based off SPX options prices. Their SPX+VIX is an unbreakable anchor for the market. They manipulate VIX through the futures and presidential actions, which then lets them manipulate the SPX options with total precision. Then they use the NDX index for rocket fuel to launch the broad market up higher and take everything with it, then deploy the SPX/VIX anchor to keep it from retracing. IWM and DOW are just quietly in the background as illiquid market manipulation tools that literally no one pays attention too. Its all a statstical pricing model and they backfill the greeks to be whatever they need them to be to rig it however they need to now. Vix isnt down, vix is suppressed to a massive degree due to the treasury department shorting front month futures + selling massive amounts of vix straddles + buying back month vix futures. Bessant was a hedge fund manager, he is pulling literally every single wall street manipulation trick with the authority and backing of the US treasury department to keep this shit propped up.
I cant with this fraud man... I bought a 1% OTM put around 9:37. IWM has since moved .5% down from where I bought and now my put is worth less than when I bought it 25 mins ago up .5%. This entire market runs on just gaslighting everyone that puts arent printing when they should be and stealing that option premium to fake pump.
On the durability question: this reads more like a structural feature for IWM specifically, less so for SPY. If IWM was negative gamma every single day for three weeks while the Russell was basically flat, dealers never got a realized move that would force them to buy back that short gamma. So the reading isn’t waiting on a catalyst to resolve, it’s just the ambient state until put demand in that wrapper actually changes. That’s a different animal from a one-print artifact. SPY is more likely to be the one-print case you’re worried about. Right after monthly OpEx, a chunk of positive gamma from the expiring contracts rolls off before the next cycle’s positioning gets rebuilt, so the print right after tends to look more negative than the underlying trend really is. I’d want to see it hold for a week or so past the 17th before trusting the direction, especially with the July 29 FOMC pulling fresh hedging demand into near dated strikes right now. The split you’re seeing between the wrappers and the six names that weight them is consistent with a crowded dispersion setup: index level downside protection getting bought while the concentrated single names get call flow written against them. Those two tend to show up together, and it’s been a persistent pattern this cycle given how top heavy SPY and QQQ both are.
https://preview.redd.it/yirwf2j3szdh1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e3847e0b82348df556b38a17b32ae74f48a84d9 Some free sauce for you. Check this option out and look at the chart. I’ve been watching this one and was meaning to get into it but lost all my money on 0DTE IWM calls. If Google has good earning this could be a very good one. Make me proud with this one boys 🫡
Imagine you could have just full ported IWM
come on IWM . Elevator up , jump out of window down
tax death and IWM pumping for no fucking reason
SPY/IWM/QQQ/TSLA/NVDA/AAPL/GOOG Best stocks are liquid ones
Yeah this has been crazy for me. SPY most of the day was above yesterday's lows and yet I see a lot of shit 50% down from highs. Agreed how dissonant this is. I mean IWM at ATHs too. I'm cash, but do daily trades that I close out at the end of the day, and I see a lot of things I'd like to pick up (as they're 50% off) but I think "what will happen when IWM and SPY dip...."
IWM went back to flat. Fuck this fake ass market
The rotation into IWM might be the dumbest shit I've seen
Highkey yes. Selling these IWM puts before close and d switching to calls
Everything red but SPY and IWM hanging in there
The fuck was that IWM pump?
IWM legit just said ,"nah." Lol
Thank you made 3.6k on IWM puts 😊
SPY red but IWM is green. Yeah makes total sense.
idk boys IWM reversing a bit, the true chad index
Can you believe IWM is this year's chad index?
Probably a good play as a hedge, if SPY tanks IWM will tank harder.
IWM pump is stupid, puts on IWM anyone?
Amazing that the IWM still flat with TLT lower (rates higher)
Don’t worry, IWM which holds the most profitable company’s on earth is doing just fine.
https://preview.redd.it/f9maj0g4xedh1.png?width=2304&format=png&auto=webp&s=433d5f28171ad7aef2646547d9420f2f3380a69d Here's my parameters. Of note: notice the Exclude box above the filters group. I created a watchlist that includes the major index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM, VOO, SPX, TQQQ, SQQQ etc.) to filter out excess noise.
"I have seen the future of horror, and his name is IWM." - Stephen King
Watching IWM movement all day long is self-imposed torture
Ffs, IWM has been glued to 294.50 all damn day. Just bouncing back and forth around it every few minutes. Just turn it off.
Currently IWM on the 5min. Wtf. https://preview.redd.it/qkzgixsf18dh1.jpeg?width=1753&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4cf23b5986139f28aa7a98408b7f57a3e6611149
Get to 296 IWM you fat pig fuck
Was playing divergence today with a mostly negative bias and port is up %350. Lets go. Playing SPY, IWM, TSLA, NVDA, AMD, RDDT, NOW, PLTR
I have an incredible urge to puts on oil calls on IWM expiring friday. But there is a very high chance I blow up as early as tomorrow doing that
Lol I should've stuck with TSLA instead of going with IWM. Am I stupid or something??
You say you have a SPY V, the IWM dump determined THAT WAS A LIE. SPY , YOU ARE NOT THE PUMPER!
IWM is being a real cunt right now
What checks out: * CapEx figures verified: \~$410B actual 2025, \~$725B guided 2026 (Amazon \~$200B, Microsoft \~$190B, Google $175-185B, Meta $115-135B). His 2023/2024 numbers match reported actuals too. * The 4-5x rule is real: Bain's latest tech report says \~$500B/yr of capex by 2030 needs \~$2T of new AI revenue and still flags an $800B shortfall. Sequoia's "$600B Question" used the same logic shape. * The math is internally consistent: $400B to \~$2.75T in 4 years is a \~62% CAGR. Correct. Where he's too generous (real hurdle is higher): * His "pre-AI baseline" of $250-300B contradicts his own 2023 figure of $151B. True baseline is \~$150-180B, so incremental AI capex is \~$720-750B, not $600-650B. * Counting all of AWS/Azure/Google Cloud as "AI revenue today" ($400B) is very generous. Bain pegs genuinely new AI revenue at a small fraction of that, which pushes the required growth rate well past 70%/yr. Where he overstates: * The 3-year GPU life is the weakest claim, and the commenters are right to push back: hyperscalers depreciate servers over 5-6 years, 6-year-old A100s still rent profitably, and roughly a third of data-center capex is buildings and power gear with 20-40 year lives. * Returns don't all have to arrive as new revenue. Cost savings and defending the core ad/search/cloud franchises count, and Google/Meta already attribute ad gains to AI. Net: the framework is sound and the conclusion matches what Bain and Sequoia themselves publish. Revenue has to grow at a rate almost no industry has sustained at this scale, or timelines stretch and multiples compress. Whether that resolves as a pop or as returns quietly landing in the core businesses is the genuinely open question, and the post doesn't (can't) answer it. One portfolio note: your IWM calls aren't AI-heavy, but if this repricing thesis hits, small caps sell off with everything else. Your existing 7/14 CPI trim plan is the right hedge for that. Sources: [Bain press release](https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/20252/$2-trillion-in-new-revenue-needed-to-fund-ais-scaling-trend---bain--companys-6th-annual-global-technology-report/), [Tom's Hardware on Bain's $800B gap](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/bain-says-compute-demand-is-outpacing-capital), [2026 capex breakdown](https://valueaddvc.com/blog/big-tech-ai-capex-in-2025-microsoft-google-meta-amazon-and-the-spending-race), [CNBC on \~$700B 2026 spend](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-meta-amazon-ai-cash.html)
I guess IWM isnt worthy of fraudulent pumping. RIP my calls.
wouldnt do anything silly but kinda feels like it'd be irresponsible not owning a couple VIX call or otm IWM put or w/e your fav max negative convexity thingamajig is
Wish IWM would get off its ass and join the party.
IWM algos not even pretending to have human trading activity today
I knew I should've stuck with IWM puts today. JFC.
first time I decide to buy a dip IWM and shit starts going my way and he has to open his fucking orange mouth
I feel like it's been a $3 chop on IWM for about 3 weeks lol
How does the Russell 2k (IWM) climb up on news of the strait of Hormuz going hot? And why did I buy puts when I know stocks only go up.
It's bad when IWM is doing better than SPY and QQQ
IWM’s magical regard strength remains intact.
Been digging into [$IWM](https://aimytrade.io/ticker/iwm?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=comment&utm_campaign=SmallStreetBets&utm_term=IWM&utm_content=template_1783586936892_3i4i51). Earnings tends to swing it so I check the pattern first.
IWM going to moon into the stratosphere in around 55 minutes
IWM drilling makes my day and I don’t even have puts
IWM/RUSSELL have a chance to do something extraordinary today....just can't shit the bed, like it's doing right now...reverse damnit!
This actually tracks for the post-2022 world and the Korean market is something that is similar to what happened very early in fall 2020 (just sub Japan for Korea then). What’s been tending to happen since the Nasdaq bottomed out from that worst bear market since the financial crisis (that index specifically) is that it’ll get tripped up on stuff that’s arguably not even directly US macro fundamental based initially. Sometimes at the same time, you’ll see the Dow/IWM try to outperform initially, but it ends up failing to fully work out and everything eventually sells for a brief time. This is 100% an Iran day though for the first time in at least a few weeks if the dip isn’t bought. Futures looked sleepy until Trump comments were made.
There’s the IWM we all once knew.
I think memory-tards and MU/SNDick enjoyers should go create their own sub. This sub exclusively tracks great American indices like SPY/QQQ/IWM which never crash LMAO.
Small caps breaking down. $300 was the short term top on IWM
Any chance IWM goes green? Askin' fer a fren...
whats the vibes on IWM today
L0L Just went to look at the IWM chart and actually burst out laughing. What a joke. Overnight session is straight line up for the past few hours with gaps between literally EVERY single candle.