iShares Russell 2000 ETF
$-0.04 (-0.02%) Today
52 Week High
52 Week Low
7 Days Mentions
Well.. while yes IWM did set a new high that was a fake breakout and it has fallen about 32% since that November fakeout, FWIW. Market breadth was showing serious warning signs of sickness under-the-radar before and during this time. The Netflix example wasn't for a direct comparison to this sector by any means, I was just showing how growth IN GENERAL is getting skullfucked. It's not exclusive to this space. Our sector specifically has flies in the ointment regarding valuation due to 280E. Profits matter less if uncle Sam taxes it all I get your point though. It's been brutal; it's been painful, to be so passionate about cannabis only to be rewarded like this. Thanks for the discussion, and good luck.
Sorry but I can't accept this. US cannabis peaked in February 2022 and started tanking. IWM was still setting new highs 9 MONTHS LATER ! While IWM was setting new highs, MSOS was down OVER 50% How is that the same? Also your comparison to Netflix makes no sense. Netflix has an insane valuation and they were bleeding subscribers. US Cannabis is the exact opposite. Sales were growing and the valuation were cheap compared to almost every other growth stock.
Fuck that pump during Biden’s talk that hit my IWM puts stop. .51 at a 20% loss now 1.40 would be near 200% gain if I still had em. Only had 5 but damn me for turning on the safety. At least the RBLX and AFRM puts are treating me alright. Still can walk away from the day up a couple hundo.
By this years' "sell in may" MSOS had already fallen 60% from its February 2021 high, so this was by no means a direct cause of the price action. Growth started selling off first, and IWM became choppy as soon as cannabis peaked, which in hindsight was the first symptom of the ongoing broader bear. I could of course be wrong and appreciate listening to others' viewpoints. Thanks for the discussion
I would say you should set a time to close the trade whether that is 10 days or 2 weeks out or a profit target whichever comes first. Sometimes you wont make it to the profit target so you have to defer to the time in the trade. For my more narrow trades I found that anything longer than 2 weeks often started to go red so I had to trust my plan and just close it and open a new trade. If your position is fully ITM and you only have a few days left - like $0.80 is the value if the spread and you opened for $0.30, then you only have $0.20 left to lose but $0.80 to gain. But you have to think about the idea that the $0.20 can still be salvaged for another trade if this one is completely wrong. Making an assumption about a trade is what happens when you open and if your assumption is wrong then you should just close the trade and move on - especially if your portfolio is would be better off without this 1 bleeding position. Another thing to think about is trading ETFs vs individual stocks so you can have more liquid products and less volatility. You can get in and out of SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLE, etc at the mid price quite often but individual stocks might require more adjustments. Not to mention that the ETFs I mentioned have $1 increments for strike prices so it will help you trade $1 wides. If you haven't done so, Chris Butler at ProjectFinance on YouTube has some great content.
A non comprehensive list: Near term expirations: Index options (cash settled): SPX: Daily NDX: Monday Wednesday Friday RUT: MWF DJX: Weekly Fridays, Monthly Equity Exchange Traded Funds Options (shares settled) SPY: MWF QQQ: MWF IWM: MWF DIA: Weekly Fridays Futures index options (settleent to the futures contract) ES MWF NQ MWF RTY MWF YM Weekly Fridays https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/options-calendar-equity-index.html
Yes, yes, yes. DCA into 80% of your funds into Voo, 10% in QQQ’s, 10% in IWM. We’re down 24% from highs. If you invested here and we went back to ATH’s that’s a 31% gain. That math back up is very sweet. Put 50-75% in here and then save whatever is left to DCA down to S&P 3400 if we’re lucky enough to see it.
Goodafternoon Tardos and Tardettes. I present my current challenge. Turning the $160 I had in my account into as much as possible with various options strategies I’ve picked up here over the last 7 or 8 years. Today I broke the 1k mark and here are my positions/plays. Position 1: IWM 168p. Bought May 22. IWM was looking weak af. Needed to get my cash up so I went way OTM close expiration. Not something I normally do anymore after losing a lot of money 8 years ago from this damn sub. Position 2: Alb 280c 6/17 on May 24th. Sold 2 days later for 100%. Lithium was lookin beast mode. Especially ALB. Got this fella out at a lower delta than I would have liked but had conviction. Sold at 100%. Not trying to be greedy. Position 3: Ulta 435c 6/17 bought June 8. Now that I had more cash I could start buying some better options. This was a decent delta at like .24 I think and not too far otm. It had great earnings, raised guidance, great RS in the market, textbook earnings flag. Would have held longer but it couldn’t bust through resistance with any strength so closed it. Position 4/5/6: Spy Puts 0dte and 1 6/17 atm put. I don’t usually like to play news like fed rates but couldn’t help myself. We keep seeing the same thing. Rip up on fed day, next day is a gap down to the prior LOD and we bleed. Deff wanted to be in that. I scalped 2 0dte way otms to cover some of the risk on the atm 6/17 incase my idea back fired. Worked out pretty good. Got the same gap down we’ve been seeing. Sold this AM to get push me to the 1300 mark. Some things I’ve been doing different. Sitting on my hands, I take a lot of time off in between plays till I see something I like. Another thing is making sure I cut anything at -30/40%. Live to see another day. I am now in a place to buy delta 30s which I like the most. I’m also taking cash and watching volume for moves on the 15min.
If you're bullish, only 2 things I'd advise you to look at: 1) Oil for short term upside trades; I don't think we're near the top there and this selloff is all based on economic worries. Feels a bit early for oil to hit a final cycle peak. 2) Small caps for longer term trades. Small cap aggregates are the cheapest they've been in decades. S&P 600 P/E is nearly as low as it was in 2002. IWM ratios look similar. Obviously it's likely their earnings estimates need to come down, but the pain is already priced into small caps. Small caps are overcorrecting here now while the large caps like AAPL, MSFT, and especially TSLA are just moving back down to fairer value. Small caps are approaching historically cheap metrics here if the best price comparison is bottom of the tech bust (after which small caps dramatically outperformed large caps for 4-6 years).
Typically banks do worse in times of higher rates. Typically the margins get compressed on these (cost to borrow, cost to store capital, cost to acquire new clients all increase) and the risk increases (default rate increases typically in the area where previously thought to be lower at a higher rate than expected). Plus due to the higher rates, they are looked at as predatory and so have to spend more to counter the effect. For purely a rate play and not a recession play, you'll need something with an inelastic demand curve. Oil is one of these but it's already sitting at pretty much ATH and as history has said, that doesn't last. Would look into health care (UNH), core consumer staples (JNJ), insurance (MET), and "cheap" release stocks (DEO, ATVI, KO) where consumers use them to supplement their mood in times of stress. For a recession play, would go the basket route and look into an increasing stake in small-caps (IWM) as they tend to have the most dramatic recovery. If you believe the US is going to recover before the rest of the world, then look into a basket of importers as they will have stronger buying power (VCR).
I'm using measured moves on the daily chart. I sell a put or call whenever price reaches the target. The expectation is that a mean reversion occurs, or a few days of range-bound re-accumulation in case of a larger trend. The advantage is that you can sell directly into strength or weakness and capture the most IV. It has worked well so far. I'm basically measuring the previous Elliott wave and extend the length from the breakout diagonal. It works well on ETFs such as the SPY, EEM, BITO, IWM, etc.
Currently holding calls that are underwater once again on SPY, QQQ, and IWM. Inshalah, I will emerge victorious tomorrow. All with 6/21 expiries with the following strikes: SPY: $378, $376 QQQ: $27, 281 IWM: $171, $174 Staying calm and collected and listening to **All in my Head** by Benny the Butcher and I'm not even tripping about these losses right now. Expecting a strong squeeze tomorrow as this market blows out some over extended and overweight participants to the short side.
We will likely have an economic downturn for the next 2 quarters, maybe 3. We are in a market environment when good stock ideas still go down. That means it's a great time to slowly accumulate stocks that: (a) tend to hold their value, even during market drops of several percent; and (b) will show big gains when the economy recovers. So they have to trade differently than SPY, QQQ, or IWM. Not many stocks qualify. Although I'm mainly thetagang, I'm doing the above with a few names. Typically I'll buy 125 or more shares at a time, just below an option strike, then sell one call at that strike and sell a put at a lower strike; effectively an over-covered strangle. As option expiry gets near, I'll buy back the options for a profit if possible (this is working for me at the moment). So the option trades reduce my effective cost basis, as I accumulate. Your situation is different. You already have a large position. You could sell strangles as above, but I would also trade any significant moves in the stock price. When the price goes up on bear market rallies, sell some (5%, 10%, 20% ?) of your holding, depending on your risk tolerance and market liquidity. Buy back your position during market sell-offs. Keep working your position to lower its cost basis, and accumulate more (if you like), using both equity and option trades. Have a backup plan. What if your best stock idea doesn't work? What other assets can you invest in, alongside this one? Going long a stock essentially means you're shorting volatility. So I would also be looking for ways to profit from volatility, to help your portfolio.
I'm glad to see a fellow believer! I did get burned a bit on Monday for putting too much into a tight iron condor on IWM. Just gotta be more safe till I have a sizable account where I can diversify to greater extent. I'm not too big on TA myself but I think it has its place and time. I do believe that momentum is more accurate when you're looking at a medium timeframe (1-12 months) and mean reversion is easier to use for short or very long timeframes. I wonder how profitable it would be to sell narrow iron butterflies with gtc orders at 50% profit. I think it could work by taking advantage of mean reversion. Have you tried anything like that?
What do you mean by markets breaking? If we're just talking about price action breaking downward in a big way, like 30% from here- I'd say anything is fair game, despite how clear they've made it that inflation is the number one priority over employment. I'd imagine that would get tested if we saw some crazy collapse that is market-breaking. But I think they're doing a great job of walking it down, burying the lead and dragging it out as much as possible expectations-wise. I would be very surprised to see SPX levels in the 2000s and would go permabull if that came to pass, probably 70/30 SPY/IWM. Due to how they and the market has been walking it down (aside from this week), I'd expect another big commodities run would have already taken place by that time. But commodities isn't my expertise. I'm just thinking about typical market cycle length.
Y'all think IWM a good etf to go long on? Once things get better, small caps will likely lead the way, no? Granted, I don't think that will be anytime soon, but if I start to dca into IWM over the next 12 months, I'd imagine I'd be fine.
Volume is anemic today and I don’t yet see any reason to enter calls or long shares. That being said, I can’t justify puts here, we’re just so wildly overextended, it feels like complete gambling to bet on *another* leg lower. Currently bagholding some IWM calls and sitting on all cash in my trading port.
Best day since the GME days on my puts today. Sold out of everything but 150 IWM Sept $170s. My gut tells me given the negativity, PPI is positively received tomorrow and whatever the Fed does won't be as bad as feared. Think we bounce, VIX deflates and I'll reload. Still think consumers using cards to stay afloat and the incoming defaults this fall aren't priced in yet, so planning to leg into longer puts on lower income credit names like DFS/COF and AXP as expanded Apple Pay is going to eat their lunch. Still think we have another 30% down to go between now and January.