IYT
iShares Transportation Average ETF
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I wrote a short thesis on January 13. Four calls. All four working. Here’s what I saw.
I wrote a short thesis on January 13. Four calls. All four working. Here's what I saw.
Trump: US-China Trade Framework "Signed" Rare Earths Deal, Tariffs Rollback in Motion
Trucking Slows, Rail Slows, Ports Dry Up. Totally Normal, Definitely Fine.
Transports Lead Dow30 & the picture is getting ugly
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#TLDR --- **Ticker:** IYT, XLY, CVNA, VIX **Direction:** Down (Except VIX, which is Up) **Prognosis:** Short IYT, Short XLY, Short CVNA, Long VIX **Underlying Catalyst:** Corporations are liquidating their own high-earning customer base to fund AI GPU clusters, effectively killing consumer demand and transportation volume. **Summary in ape terms:** AI is taking our jobs so nobody can afford to buy overpriced used cars or ship crap anymore. The economy is hollow. Bear r fuk... wait, no, bull r fuk.
I just started watching this guys trading psychology and risk management YouTube check him out everybody https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCBYMZHSCHY7q4fJ1zZGIOEdXdZ3nh2b3&si=IYT2uF5pKeXcBVuT
Low effort mini DD ... WEAT LEAPS and calls, tarrif threat lowered, WEAT at low 30s RSI , price in a dip, never recovered like stocks. Bumper Canadian harvest. January 27th '27 4 C now ASK 1.15, that looks good value to me. January 16th '26, 4 ASK 0.8 My bids, Jan 16 (248d) 4 C 0.65 LIMIT and Jul 18 (66d) 5 C 0.08 > According to JPMorgan analyst Brian P. Ossenbeck, agricultural exports—particularly corn, wheat, and soybeans—are prime targets for Chinese retaliation. >Any new developments on this front could be relevant to investors in the **Teucrium Corn Fund** (NYSE:[CORN](https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CORN#NYSE)), the **Teucrium Wheat Fund** (NYSE:[WEAT](https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEAT#NYSE)) and the **Teucrium Soybean Fund** (NYSE:[SOYB](https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOYB#NYSE)). >With a history of leveraging tariffs to disrupt U.S. farm exports, Beijing could once again use this tactic to put pressure on American producers and policymakers. Also transportation may bounce back >The impact of potential tariffs won't stop at the farms. U.S. rail giants like BNSF (2.5% exposure) and **Union Pacific Corp** (NYSE:[UNP](https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNP#NYSE)) (1% exposure) are directly tied to soybean exports and could feel the squeeze. >Ossenbeck's analysis suggests that retaliatory tariffs on grains could weigh on transportation stocks, adding another layer of volatility to the already embattled Transports sector. Investors in the **iShares US Transportation ETF** (NYSE:[IYT](https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYT#NYSE)) should remain wary of their holdings. Possibly also # Canadian National Railway (TSE:CNR)Canadian National Railway (TSE:CNR) after Canada had a bumper harvest [https://www.producer.com/markets/wheat-exports-survive-china-pull-back/](https://www.producer.com/markets/wheat-exports-survive-china-pull-back/)
my crash indicator just went red on the day (XLF + IYT + GDX + XOP) / 4
Poots on IYT or XTN. Recession always shows up in reduced transport volumes first, before consumer sentiment changes, or credit quality declines, before consumers start to default, before layoffs, etc etc. Consumers reducing purchases, for whatever fcking reason, has led to the last eight recessions, says Equifax.
He's saying exactly what he said: the IYT U.S Transportation ETF has gone up 2% on a specific day. How this relate to what we can observe in the real physical world, knowing there's a lag between what happens and how the market ***reacts***, only him known.
IYT was up over 2% on close on Thursday. It's up almost another 2% after hours. WERN up almost 4%. WTF are are you smoking.
Between the blank sailings and the upcoming port fees, traffic at west coast US ports is going to dry up massively. Short/put opportunities on rail and truck carriers who serve those ports, as well as exporters who normally would benefit from the backhaul of containers that normally would be making the return trip from points east. Possibly on transportation ETFs such as IYT. Conversely, this could drive traffic to western Canada -- Vancouver and Prince Rupert in British Columbia. Canada will still import Chinese goods, and goods from anywhere in Asia going to US destinations can avoid the new docking fees for Chinese container lines and Chinese-built ships. My company typically has full containers delivered to Prince Rupert or Vancouver; CN Rail trans-ships them across Canada in bond; then they enter the US and clear customs in Minneapolis, Chicago or Duluth. This route may get a lot more traffic from not only from China, but anywhere across the Pacific if there's a huge fee to dock at any US port at all. So maybe calls & long positions on CN Rail ($CNI on NYSE). Wish I'd already taken these positions. Dang it, closed markets.
Pay attention to the whole market. Transports were signaling a sell-off early. Everybody is in the same names. Diversify. If you looked at Financials, energy, or transports, they all pointed to exhaustion. Well what does this mean? The 0dte call junkies won't have enough volatility to make profit on calls. What happens when you cut your red calls? It acts like fuel to the downside. When the whole market looks healthy, the whole market is healthy. When it's a tale of two markets, you need to be savvy. People trade SPY like is SMH. They don't realize that when they sell their underwater calls, they drag everything down. Right now, XLF and XOM look like they want to keep dying. XOM looks like it wants to visit the 200 moving average. Not financial advice, but if you buy puts tomorrow, it's after a fat red candle. If you aren't a veteran bear, you will be scared to buy puts. Maybe buy one and then scale safely. Set SL in green. Slowly navigate the down market. Many minor corrections have multiple red days, but those days always have dip buyers that make it look like it's over. Scary I know. If IYT has a full candle close below the 200 tomorrow, I fully expect a bounce and retest. If it fails the retest, I have to stay in a bear bias. I have no choice. If it bounces off the 200 in a bullish way for a couple of days, I can remove my bias.
Looks XLI and IYT charts and tell me what you see?
Grain of salt here. He’s a consistent bull. He called for a flat to slightly up market in 2022 when we had a 20% decline in SPY and 40%decline in QQQ. None of these guys predict the market pivot with any degree of accurate timing. That being said we are clear sailing until the next Fed meeting Jan 31. The issue now did the Fed make mistake turning so dovish this time. Will inflation return since economic conditions have eased a LOT. Than the Fed will need to pivot back to hawkish and at least defer priced in rate cuts. Hello new bear market mid 2024. But the stock market (DIA, IYT and value stocks) probably has at least another 10%upside from here. Myself, beginning in March I am going to start planning my exit and sell 5 to 10% of my stock holdings each month and building a cash reserve for the next crash and buying Opportunity.
Wow, IYT up 2.4%. 52 wk high. Going higher cats.
Lots of ODFL put volume, went and checked IYT and not a hedge imo
Transportation Index ($IYT) looks like it is starting to turn bullish today. Market often lags IYT
The EV market has potential for big upside, however focusing solely on pure play EV makers may miss the mark, if your goal is long term. There were literally hundreds of companies making cars in the early 20th century, and by comparison most of the popular EV makers likely won't be around when the EV market hits its peak over the next half century. Probably the simplest way to get long term investment benefit in this market is just buy the Dow Jones Transportation Index ETF, along with the best dividend paying auto stock. And then add a pure play EV maker of your choice... **The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (ticker: IYT)** **Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE: TM)** **Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)** **Ferrari NV (NYSE: RACE)** **Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)** **Stellantis (NYSE: STLA)** \- *Formed in 2021 by the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot, this automaker houses brands including Jeep, Ram, Dodge, Opel, Vauxhall, and Peugeot. It also owns the Fiat, Alfa Romeo, and Maserati brands, and it has strong operations in Europe and South America, as well as the U.S.* \* **Best Auto Stock Dividends (2022)** ***Dividend Yield*** RACE - 0.67% F - 3.55% **STLA - 7.38%** \* **Biggest Car Companies (By Revenue) In The World 2022** 1. Volkswagen - Revenue: $263.6 billion; Brands: VW, Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini, Bentley, Bugatti, SEAT, Skoda, MAN. 2. Toyota - Revenue: $258.7 billion; Brands: Toyota, Lexus, Ranz, Daihatsu, Hino 3. Mercedes-Benz - Revenue: $182.5 billion; Brands: Mercedes-Benz, Smart 4. Ford - Revenue: $127.1 billion; Brands: Ford, Lincoln 5. Honda - Revenue: $125.2 billion; Brands: Honda, Acura \* **Electric Vehicle Outlook** *The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term publication looking at how electrification will impact road transport in the coming decades. The report draws on our team of specialists around the world and looks at scenarios for how these trends will impact the automotive, oil, electricity, infrastructure and battery materials markets, as well as CO2 emissions.* **EV sales** EV sales are surging due to a combination of policy support, improvements in battery technology, more charging infrastructure and new compelling models from automakers. Electrification is also spreading to new segments of road transport, setting the stage for huge changes ahead. **Passenger EV sales** China still dominates the global EV market, but sales are rising quickly elsewhere too. Battery electrics are pulling ahead of plug-in hybrids and the gap is set to widen further in the years ahead. **Oil displacement from EVs** EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage, equivalent to about 3% of total road fuel demand. **Lithium-ion battery demand** Battery demand is rising sharply, putting pressure on the supply chain for materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel. **Reaching net zero by 2050** This year’s report includes a “Net Zero” scenario which investigates what a potential route to carbon neutrality looks across all segments of road transport by 2050. It also includes five thematic highlights on important emerging topic areas: • The EV adoption gap between wealthy and emerging economies • The supply and demand dynamics for battery metals from now to 2030 • Heavy duty long-haul trucking: batteries versus hydrogen fuel cells • Reshaping mobility demand through modal shifts • The value of vehicle-to-grid: A U.K. case study **Key number:** **$53 Trillion** \- Size of the electric vehicle market opportunity between today and 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario.
I'm heavily into Mar23 and April 23 puts and short positions overall. Closed a lot of my longs in the past 2 weeks and am currently net short. (aapl, ARCB, IYT, spy, wfc, mdb, ABNB and others)
u/emeraldream Got out of all leveraged longs Currently in puts on HYG, EWU, VGK, ARCB, IYT, ABNB, all March dated and otm. 2 runners on VIX nov15 27p left. Most longs hedged with otm ccs or equivalent short position. For example long AMD asml aehr, short nvda.
Lol, no, definitely not. IYT closed at 52-wk low on Fri, leading indicator. Not pretty.
Got fucking wrecked on IYT puts a couple months back and now watching it tank 
$IYT railroads make up 36.7% of that transportation etf.
oh wow are you a brit? and you got sucked into an american financial cult this easily? [the absolute state of this btw](https://i.imgur.com/vlT4IYT.png)
IYT puts. Railroad strike eminent.
#Transports are a leading indicator for the #StockMarket & thus economic sentiment. $IYT (transports ETF) rallied sharply but kissed the 200SMA today. That implies a pull back in the transports & thus a pull back in the market
Don't use traditional media. It lags and, unless you're looking at sources like Reuters, it's incredibly biased. Bloomberg is a solid source thiugh. Go to tradingeconomics and pull up the economic calendar. Look at the US and the world. Pretty much all the info you need on macros. So much is there that is way more important than just the CPI. Monitor the price of other assets thay correlate or move inverse with the equity market. Oil. Gold. Crypto. USD. Look at stocks that are leading indicators of QQQ like IYT and EEM. Look at futures for the major indicies. Look at foreign markets and stock markets in other countries. We're all interrelated tightly right now. Look at the housing market. It lags the stock market but it is hugely important.
$IYT vs $SPY and $USO vs $IYT
There’s a broad transportation ETF (IYT) that’s got a lot of that stuff. I love the rails. I used to trade them along with manufacturers like Wabtec and Greenbrier. They certainly aren’t going anywhere soon and you’re almost guaranteed to get solid returns over the long term. I wouldn’t touch and airline or trucking company. Pipelines and rails are the royalty of moving stuff.
I only know what I know. These are opinions based on research. Not edicts or predictions with the assumption that I am right. The things that will trigger the biggest part of this crash: 1) inflation is higher than expected for longer than expected 2) lots more bad earnings reports 3) Putin does some fucked up shit in Ukraine. 4) Very clear indicators that we are already in a recession - inverted yield curve, etc. Near: We haven't hit bottom yet. I think it's very unlikely that we will see a legit longer term rally. S&P and DOW haven't taken a beating yet. They will. If core CPI prints high on Wednesday, the market is sunk. If it prints low, we may see a rally - very short term or a bit longer if people hold on to some hope before more earnings come in. Charts for QQQ, DIA and SPY look like dog shit. QQQ is the best of the shitty bunch because it's been beat up the most. All three of them have lost key support levels so that means they can fall fast and shoot up fast (especially because of the lack of liquidity in the market. Some charts for leading indicators also look like half shit: EEM and IYT have longer term data that gives a bit of hope. EEM and IYT are grim but not apocalyptic. IWM looks ok shorter term but long term it doesn't. Unfortunately, BTC looks nasty. I thought it might be ok short term, but it's got a big ass bear pennant right now so it may not be. If it falls sub $30K, the ass falls out of crypto. There's no real support until around $20K BTC has been a leading indicator of NASDAQ so that's no bueno for the equity market if it tanks. Especially because crypto margin calls will start coming in and exchanges allow for an insane amount of margin on accounts. So it could be bad. Like suicides will happen bad. Way more concerning is HYG. It literally has no level of support beneath it. If it falls and falls hard then the broad equity market goes with it. Plays: - short stocks in sectors that are particularly at risk. Consumer discretionary, retail, travel, shipping, paper. Find companies that have a shitty balance sheet, unfounded P/E ratios, are overvalued and haven't cratered like the rest of the market yet. Set stops on your shorts that give enough room to account for high volatility but protect you from some insane spike in a company's price. - if you don't want to do the research or shorting makes your ass pucker, then invest in inverse ETFs - either for the indices or for specific companies/stocks. - swing trade earnings but that's a dangerous game. Mid-Term: We're already in a recession. And a stock market crash. People don't realize it because they think crashes happen dramatically in one day (unlike over two years as was the case in 2008-2009). Crashes and recessions get their narratives after then happen. People are oblivious to them as they are happening most times. A recession is defined as the GDP going negative for two quarters - which is a huge lag in indication. GDP went negative last quarter. It will go negative next quarter. People will realize we're fucked for about a year/year and a half (from Jan. which is when it started and no one knew). The Fed is taking a gamble. They don't want to spike interest rates but have to get inflation down. They know that the economy is about to slow down on its own in a big way so they don't want to do too much and crash the whole thing. Their hope is that inflation will cool before they have to do anything dramatic and get blamed for fucking the economy (which is already fucked). This is why they're trying to "front load" 50 basis point hikes. They're hoping it will be ok. If it's not, they will have to take bigger action. If their gentle approach works then there will be a little grace period where everyone rejoices because inflation has some down. This period will be short lived because inflation will whipsaw into recession. Like everything in this market over the last few years, I imagine it will be extreme. If the Fed doesn't manage to thread the needle then they will raise interest rates too much before the market takes care of it on its own. So you get a double whammy. Inflation drops quickly and by a lot because it has two catalysts at the same time. People may think that's great or may realize that it means the recession is here. The employment stats that everyone has 11 boners about will turn into widespread unemployment with the Southern States hit the worst. Layoffs happen as quickly as hiring. Mortgage and tech companies have already started sacking people. Sales and profits of companies will fall. So their stock will too. The housing market will tank. It's overvalued and already starting to shit its pants. Scared money runs from small cap, to mid-cap to mega-cap to real estate. Money will continue to flow into "safe" companies and real estate until people realize there is no "safe" companies. Crime will continue to escalate. So will global unrest (as it always does when food prices soar). Plays: - if you're looking to buy long positions and make money this year, you've got your work cut our for you. Consumer staples, dividend stocks, military defense, prison and guns. You can start taking small positions in stocks that you want to hold for 5 years+ Take them a little at a time. - short - hold the stocks you shorted in consumer discretionary, add housing stocks, recession susceptible stocks. Energy (oil rolls over and dumps when there's a recession). Possibly commodities as they will lose value as manufacturing continues to tank. Long term: Economy will return to normalcy in 2024. So will the stock market. By that time, you should have long positions that you bought at a discount. There is no way to call a bottom but you can look for some indicators - like when oil will bottom out and the the dollar bottoms out and comes back up. Plan on having a Republican in the White House next election. No president could have made this term good. Biden certainly hasn't (I'm politically agnostic in conversations about the stock market - facts are facts - recovery has been a mess). Plays: look at emerging market stocks for long positions (which usually recover first). Find countries that have a lower debt/GDP ratio, stable/growing economies that export a lot to the U.S. Too early to call this but I think we're talking Mexico, Brazil, India. I'd avoid China until everyone calms the fuck down. Invest in growth stocks that have a legitimate future. They will have taken the biggest beating over the crash. That's most of my thoughts. I'm sure there are more but that's all I can think of in my jacked up caffeine state.
I think maybe IYT is down because a lot of its major holdings experienced a lot of profit taking in the past month. Transport stocks had a big runnup that was probably more than was deserved. Factor in the almost guaranteed recession and people started jumping ship (pun intended) the moment things started downwards. RIP my ZIM calls. But they will probably come back up, sooner rather than later HGX is down not just on how much interest rates have risen but the certainty that they will go WAY up in the next year. I'm thinking this time next year, mortgage rates will be around 8%. That's gonna put a huge dent in business. Soon might be a good entry point for shares of cash heavy REIT's that can afford to acquire distressed properties over the next couple of years. Yes, demand pressure will ease and continue to ease. Some of it on a long term basis. I would argue that demand destruction is not a good thing.
Some thoughts and some questions. IYT (transport ETF) has been hit hard the last couple of weeks, down 12% since start of April. I’m assuming it’s down due to a sharp drop in demand, but I’m wondering if that’s the case or something else like geo-political fallout from the Russia/Ukraine war. HGX (housing ETF) has also been down a lot since start of the year, -25% YTD, and I’m assuming that’s due to the sharp rise in mortgage rates. But, is that necessarily a bad thing? As in, is that a leading indicator of something like a recession or is this simply a reversion to mean given the insanity we’ve had in the housing market the last 2 years? Finally, assuming both IYT and HGX are both down due to falling demand for one reason or another, is this a sign of easing inflation pressures from the demand side?
Probably, the Fed keeps pumping liquidity into this economic bubble that’s had a hole in it since ‘08 and every time they stop pumping the bubble starts deflating. Looking at a leading economic indicator like the transportation index IYT over the last 10 days should tell you the recession is probably sooner than ‘23
The reason I’m saying that this feels very similar to early January is because the backdrop is similar to me even if we’re not at ATHs. That backdrop is stocks feel as if they’re in a good spot to me (and actually if bears didn’t REALLY bring it this week, the S&P was apparently positioned to return to an ATH technically after Monday even though it shouldn’t be with the way things are macro wise), then the Fed shocks people and causes stocks to get hammered. The difference is that economically sensitive things look really bad this time, what’s more concerning than the Nasdaq move is that IYT looks positioned to go straight to 0. The similarities will be pretty eerie if we see a small gap down, then attempt a recovery and fail tomorrow.
Look at SOX, IYT, XLF Those charts look like murder scenes
Seriously, anyone looking at bullish plays right now REALLY need to look at what transports are doing.. They are cutting right through support levels and headed to retest yearly lows in just 4 trading sessions. 248 on the IYT is what i am looking at as the final support
That said, since I'm not 26 anymore, looking at the Consumer Staples sector, XLP (2.8% off 52 week high), and VDC, (3.3% off 52 week high)- as well as the Utilities, VPU (4.36% off 52-w hi) could offer some segment defense. Still tempted by transports, IYT, (9% of 52 week hi), but airlines still pretty low which I think will rebound, along with the nice holdings of the rails.
Maybe the Airline ETFs? (JETS, IYT, XTN)
double top on IYT? startin to look like pullback/flat going forward
IYT ETF is still on a trend up. If your trade were longer term the trand would take care of you.
interested to see what IYT and the russell do tomorrow
Transportation-related stocks do not look like a dip buy right now, and it's not because of Amazon, it's because the entire sector looks like it's rolling over hard right now after months of struggling...wouldn't be surprised if the transports index hit bear market territory within the next 4 weeks. In fact, I'll go further with this performance...what is the IYT telling you? It's telling you that cyclicals are not a dip buy right now period, and saying that we're going to be entering a recession. I hope I'm wrong, but that's what it's saying.
Something in transportation area if you think the economy is gonna come back strong. The IYT has been beaten down. Some stocks in that ETF may be a good play on options/shares.
Man railroads and IYT look stuck here, hard to tell XLI's next move
This isn't completely correct given what's been going on for the past month. Yeah, we might not have crashed like we did in March 2020, but things like XLE, IYT, and the travel stocks (some of which are in IYT, but some that aren't) have been really struggling. Yes, I see what's struggling (and it's turned into all of it instead of just small cap tech in the last couple trading days), but lately I've been leaning toward that mid-February to early March correction having nothing at all to do with inflation FUD and more to do with the bond market moving too fast and the Nasdaq itself having been up too much too fast (especially in those last couple weeks, the last couple weeks the Nasdaq Comp. was up nearly 8% on basically nothing, something like that ended badly in September and it unsurprisingly ended badly there).
I am 20, living in Germany and work in a warehouse, I have around 1000 EUR and looking to put them in ETFs but I am too worried to invest them all at once. I am looking for around a year long investment. I am looking for advice on which ETFs to purchase and if its a good idea to throw all of them in the stock market. Of course I am not looking for crazy returns, but rather to make use of the money and to avoid inflation. I already did quite some research and came up with the following ETFs, how many and which should I choose, please let me know what you think. Schwab US Large-Cap Growth (SCHG) Vanguard Information Technology (VGT) iShares Russel Mid-Cap Growth (IWP) Vanguard Growth Index (VUG) Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index Fund (VBK) SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Divident (SPYD) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VNQ) SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK) SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT Total Stock Market ETF Vanguard VTI S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production SPDR XOP iShares Transportation Average ETF IYT
Trading Boeing is a losing game but this company always goes up long term. It’s sponsored by Uncle Sam himself with an open check book. Maiden voyage was planned months in advance and those in the know pumped and dumped on the current bag holders. Transport sector is about to be a full 10% correction from highs if you track IYT. And Dow now approaching a 10th straight red day. Support zone is at 230. No one can tell you what to do unless you do your own research. If you’re gambling though buy some weekly calls pussy.
Heading you loud and clear mate!.. There’s a world wide train conductor shortage and we need to buy the transports. Load up on $IYT calls!!
I was ALWAYS too scared to get into the market until March 2020 when the market took a complete shit I knew that I would NEVER get another chance like this. IYT was my first investment, 50 @ $125 and it's like +80% since then. I heard getting an 8% return is phenomenal and most of my investments have grown more then 20% in the last year.
Right now, I'd go for anything infrastructure related, especially basic materials and mining and metals. Just not gold. It's basically the worst possible thing you could invest in right now. PAVE, XME, IYT, and maybe GRID are all good ETFs right now for short to medium term. Also long-term. But there's plenty of other things that would make good investments right now, I would just do some research and go with a sector, industry, or company that you either believe in strongly or have personal experience with, preferably both.
Maybe check out IYT. It's general transportation, but I think it's got exposure to railroads in general. That's if you believe a rising tide floats all ships, anyway.
Just an FYI for anyone wanting an ETF play here: IYT has the largest investment in KSU of any ETF, at around 800k shares, almost 10% of the total fund. Can't find any ETFs with CP. It dropped a couple bucks right before close on Friday so it could be a sweet play tomorrow morning if you get in at the right price.
> the sector with recovery, IYT, perhaps.