Reddit Posts
All BS aside, how’s calls on MSFT looking this week?
Me going into earnings week with $5000 in SMCI, MSFT, & AMD calls
Need to practice option trading with paper money
Who’s ready to burn their life savings this week
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
This is a small dumb little thing but it's HUGE in its Implications - Google Puts Chrome On Windows ARM - Effectively Seeding Chromebooks
Who’s buying MSFT & AMD calls for earnings?
I took too long to move my MSFT stocks and now I don't know if I should wait after the weekend to buy.
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia's Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses 🚀
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia’s Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses
Wall Street Newsletter S03E06: All-time highs are here. What's next?
Poor Man’s Covered Call What it is, why I’m doing it with $30k worth of MSFT calls , and why you should consider trying it. TLDR at TOP
MSFT has now overtaken AAPL in market cap.
Some predictions for Microsoft, Palantir, AMD, Amazon, Spotify and Tesla.
Is it normal for the index funds to be weighted this heavily by mega caps?
What are your top picks for the top performance stocks for this year?
Epic V Continues to Show How Little Risk Exists
Has anyone seriously looked at Global Foundries [$GFS]
$CBDW News 1606 Corp. CEO Attends Consumer Electronics Show (CES) For Collaboration Meetings
$MSFT has potentially created a "new battery" with AI - Musk / $TSLA Says Interesting
Top 10 S&P 500 companies by market cap weighting since 1980. MSFT is the reining champ for persistence.
The true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
A true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
Lumen $LUMN Insider & Big Boys Buying Spree Post Dividend Halt, Kate Johnson & Co. Personally Buying the Dip
LUMEN $LUMN INSIDER & BIG BOYS BUYING SPREE POST DIVI HALT, KATE JOHNSON & CO. BACK THE DIP HARD!
And the AI Show Goes On - GPT 4.5 Turbo Leaks - $MSFT - Its Real And Available -https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai
Taiwan Semi (TSMC) will be 'back to strong growth in 2024' - JPMorgan (holding small position)
Potential for massive shorts/puts tmrw (Jan 4th) after the release of the Epstein List (likely today after market close, Jan 3rd)?
If Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s list is this a great put buying opportunity for MSFT?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on the Jeffrey Epstein Client List sound like a bad idea?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s client list sound like a bad idea?
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if Buffet needs a new #2.
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if buffet needs a new #2.
How would you spend $1500 if you regularly forget stocks exist for months at a time? How do you decide which stocks are to be held and which losses cut?
Keep an eye on $MSFT (potential put money making opportunity)
If you had $40k to invest right now, what would you do with it?
The NYTs is suing Microsoft and I think there is a profitability play on their stocks
New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
Do you ever buy stocks outside of the indexes and Mag 7 near all time highs?
Question regarding this type of Play Option?
The biggest lesson that I've learned in my 10 year investing career.
MSFTs Open Ai will raise funds with valuation of $100B
Mentions
"gamble" ???? lol Give me a break. It's MSFT, market cap around $3 TRILLION..... 4th largest company in the world.... It's basically the opposite of "gambling", You act like he said gamestop or whatever the current Meme stock is. He picked a well vetted, highly respected stock held by just about every non-sector based mutual fund on the planet, which is in a down trend like many other software based stocks at the moment. Unlike every other "software" stock, microsoft has other ways of making money, so it will eventually bounce back. He said he wants to put 10% into the 4th largest company in the world, and you equate that with gambling. LMFAO
cuz MSFT is SaaS, aslo openAI and sam are burden now
It's the semianalysis article on NVDA apparently not presently wanting their HBM4. Do your own research, but I think the market is so tight for HBM4 that MU will absolutely kill it with AVGO, AMD, TPU, MSFT, ETC. Then MU will get some NVDA HBM4 orders. Fact is Samsung makes 5x more HBM4 per week than MU. skh is second. MU was always overflow. Nothing has changed.
!banbet MSFT 410 2d
Most certainly? MSFT could dump harder from here and slowly climb back. It’s no sure thing. Typical Reddit echo chamber though
After this first half I'm buying MSFT and Intuit stock
Finally a MSFT ad. But a copilot ad?? 😭😭
Do %5. Don’t lump sum too much into an individual stock. Put a small chunk into MSFT now, then DCA into it for a bit. I bought some recently, but I mostly buy indexes. Only makes up %2 though
I hear you and agree but was suggesting that when someone that doesn’t seem entirely convicted in a company asks if they should pull from the safer allocation of funds from VT and put it into MSFT, I hesitate to promote that. I do understand that we all operate differently and ultimately, I suppose this is stocks and not bogleheads, so you’re absolutely right that they should chase the more aggressive individual equity. 👍
Eight years before, someone asked me like this "Magical crystal ball", that made me work on a Magic Crystal Ball project and I made it. Yes, it gave me a Trigger on Thursday, I bought a lot at close and after hour dipped further thursday, I bought again. Sold all my SPY calls at friday close, but holding all QQQ,SMH, TQQQ, SLV,GLD for this bull run. If there is a pull back tomorrow, I will be buying MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN and NFLX...etc
Neither. Call debit spreads on MSFT
I mean, I get the general sentiment, and yes VT is almost always better, but let's not forget that fundamentally, MSFT is a powerhouse, has strong numbers, and is deeply oversold right now. You're talking as if this company isn't producing billions in revenue each year, like it's the end and it will never grow again. While we don't know how low it will go, it is currently heavily oversold and discounted. So I wouldn't blame OP for dabbling into it, especially if it's only 10%.
Yes and no. I sold a bunch of shares of MSFT at $100 because I felt like it was becoming too big a portion of my portfolio. Not my finest trade.
I have separate accounts for index funds and individual stocks. I would say keep DCAing your normal amount into VT and in a separate account start building a MSFT position as well as other individual stocks
2 % international gains or 10% MSFT. Id take any American company over the other crap
You already have exposure to MSFT through VT. About 3.4% of VT is MSFT right now. You're tempting yourself to chase an individual stock because you've convinced yourself it's a buying opportunity with only "it's down a lot, almost as low as a previous moment" as your due diligence. You have no defined exit strategy. Just keep putting it all into VT and chill.
You could miss international gains by messing about with an individual equity that could or could not recover well in that same time. There’s no telling if MSFT will trade flat for a few years like many other top equities have in the past two years. If you want to gamble, do it but I reckon if you were as confident in MSFT as you say, you wouldn’t be asking us to boost your confidence in the play.
I just watched a Chinese documentary about some "dating bootcamp", and it's crazy. There are convention centers where mass dating is organized: random single women just get randomly assigned to random single men and they don't even check if they match. They immediately have to go on a date within that convention center, and 10 minutes later they are instantly declared husband and wife unless one of them declines (but they don't dare to decline because it's done in front of an audience). Immediately afterwards they are told to go home and start having a family, and the organisers emphasize multiple times that they are not kidding: go home and start making children (to save the country or something). End of the show. Absolutely WILD. Any Chinese here who can explain what this is called in China? Anyway, this has been a cashflow update. Green futes in 10 min and bullish on $GLD and $MSFT.
Me too, but MSFT getting that cheap has crossed over to about 65-35 against. Start nibbling here at least
Fantastic entry point for going long on MSFT. It’s not sexy, but at least you won’t need antibiotics later.
The revenue backlog of the three biggest hyperscalers is currently $1.1 trillion. MSFT $625 billion (up 110% YoY). AMZN $244 billion (up 40% YoY). GOOGL $240 billion (up 151% YoY).
MSFT under $400 has been a strong buy
Does anybody else think the MSFT dump is overblown? Sure, some costs got a little out of hand, but I think it’s just not that bad
Scenario B will never occur as these trillion dollar companies (GOOG, MSFT, etc) will simply bought out any startup that has the “secret” non LLM path to AGI. Additionally, just like we saw with LLMs, there isnt going to be some secret technology that cannot be copied by these tech whales - they will reverse engineer any breakthrough and claim as evolution of AI
The market makers are going to use MSFT and AMZN bounces to run the indexes even higher. AAPL might also be used to boost the rally.. Dude major major tech stocks are are multi year lows.. those going up are gonna push indexes with them. Good luck tho.. cant knock the conviction
MSFT is good, do you have anything in SPY?
"flat". DJI already broke 50K points Friday for first time as DJT stated on truth social. Only thing dragging down S&P is tech which crashed few days ago, but that is only a MM tactic to push it a new ATH on this Monday. After all is "easy" keep retail stocks flat on ATH while rotating some money to certain tech names (MSFT, NVDIA, GOOG) to get 7000 by Monday. As long as index doesn't crash my calls are printing fine, specially of buying 50% more on any irrational dip pushed by fake news of market. However note that this Wednesday new labour data is published. Either can make a flash dump if data is bad, or index gets 7100 by EoW if data is cooked as expected and shows jobs creation on record as 🥭 says. Either way I am not tired of winning in this market, Mr. President
Just ordered wings and fries for the game. Lets see where MSFT opens tonight
AMZN at 200- and MSFT at 400- are equally attractive to me. AMZN has more growth, and MSFT is more certain. I hope the market panics more, I wanna buy AMZN at 180- and MSFT at 360- lol
Software has been in a downtrend since November, with IGV down 30% off the high. Wall Street seems to think Claude code will hugely disrupt every software company by allowing any company to quickly make their own in house versions of MSFT, CRM, NOW, etc.
Your right, they are not going anywhere. But, it may take a long time before institutional buying resumes in$MSFT. Do you want to be safe, ot do you want to make money?
I’m just not an MSFT fan. Their software sucks, cloud is all OpenAI. I could just see them going totally obsolete in 20 years.
MSFT at a P/E under 20 is a name I'm using for my kids and hope they don't sell it until long after I die. Gift here. IMO.
Yeah you’re right. Google, meta, apple, MSFT and AMZN are all gonna relocate outside the states
Last year i sold all my AMZN.. this year i sold half my MSFT. I think Google is the only tech giant that knows how to monetize AI without fuckin up their current products/services.
Right now they love MSFT and AMZN. God I have to unwind some positions now
As far as I can tell, most redditors have completely forgotten that those business exist outside their chatbots. Someone was arguing that MSFT was going to 0 because Copilot is bad, and a *lot* of people agreed with him.
Rest of the tech rallied WAY more than 1.9%. I wouldn't bet on it. Though I am/will accumulate more MSFT shares
what's wrong with exit liquidity btw, people screaming cuz they don't want to buy the top but the dip and now is exactly the time that there's ton of tech on sale for "cheap" just buy your favourite stonk at a discount and chill, MSFT -27%, META AMZN AVGO AMD -20%, PLTR -35%, NFLX -40% ... MU and GOOGL are about 10% from ATH if you don't want to buy the dip, defensive/energy have already run up 15% in the month of january and they are ATH (fucking KO went +17% in 1month LMAO)
MSFT 440 by Friday or I am cooked
the best buy at this point MSFT !! its amazing how cheap this got
The only question I have to solve this weekend is which software company to buy. Unfortunately I haven’t made progress at all. I’m still fluctuating between CRM and NOW. Any suggestions? ADBE is out due to mob-like pricing tactics. MSFT is too fucking boring. And CSU is too complex for me.
MSFT earnings weren’t even bad lmao. I bought $100k MSFT past week
Feeling like I stole MSFT 400c Jun 27 LEAPs at $395 share price
It’s alright. MSFT gonna announce on Monday they withdraw all their CAPEX into openAI and redirect them into IREN. Source: me bru
You really need to first divide the hyperscalers into TPU and GPU. Among those, there are the old profitable companies and the young upstarts. The old profitable companies will be more stable and the young upstarts have more growth potential. Google is my favorite profitable TPU hyperscaler with exposure to so many other emerging tech options and the best AI vertical integration. I would be careful with AWS and MSFT because Google Cloud is growing at an immense rate. I’m not aware of any young upstarts TPU hyperscalers that you can buy. For GPU hyperscalers, Nvidia is starting to build out their own cloud infrastructure. Coreweave would be the pick for young upstart due to their tight relationship with Nvidia when it comes to throughput. If you want add some shovel companies
I bought the dip heavy on AMZN, MSFT, and RDDT. Thoughts?
Nice. I loaded up on META when it was 615. That's why I am now buying MSFT
I don't have a position in MSFT yet, but considering starting one here. Large positions in GOOG/GOOGL and AMZN with pretty low cost bases (AMZN 84, GOOG/GOOGL 160). Tried adding to AMZN at 200 but order didn't fill. Hoping it dips down there again so I can add. I've got a GTC order waiting. Not sure how/when to add to GOOG.
I agree with your take. But it highlights the problem as well that Amazon's narrative hasn't catched-up yet. It has been under-performing from quite long. It might take fews years until it catches-up. I will strongly consider the advice of not trading AMZN for MSFT but look for other ways to rebalance it.
Fair point. I have started DCAing into MSFT. I have been considering the rebalance as MSFT looks attractive at the current price and my current DCAing capacity will take almost a year or so to catch-up.
Theres retards that think MSFT will go to $350-370 after a 30% dump from ATH we had since october.
Instead of realizing gains, I'd just put new money into MSFT/GOOG to catch and rebalance to the ratios you described.
Microsoft’s decline is due to the revelation that their cloud commitments are decelerating if you exclude OpenAI, which isn’t an unreasonable thing to do considering OpenAI is struggling to generate the revenue to pay Microsoft. AWS is much more diversified in terms of its cloud customers and doesn’t face nearly as much risk. Also, one thing nobody is talking about enough is the robotics play. Amazon employs 750,000 people in its warehouses and are well on their way to automating most of them out. Imagine their margins if over half a million employees are off their payroll. Buying more MSFT is fine, but I wouldn’t trade AMZN for it unless you just want to rebalance for the hell of it
Given the low PE ratio of MSFT and AMZN, investors will be more forgiving. Google is extremely expensive right now so even a stellar earnings will make it go down. It really depends on your risk.
The fact that GitHub is also owned by MSFT
The selloff in technology this week was completely overdone. $NVDA started the week at $187.53 and fell roughly -9.43% over 4-days to around $169.84 before rebounding 7.92% ($13.60) on Friday to $185.41. The hyperscalers have now reported and provided CapEx guidance and all roads lead back to $NVDA The rate of CapEx growth continues to expand. In 2023 the combination of $MSFT $GOOGL $META and $AMZN allocated $140.13 billion towards CapEx In 2024 this grew 55.04% ($77.14 billion) YoY to $271.27 billion. In 2025 this grew 64.55% ($140.24 billion) YoY to $357.51 billion The 2026 CapEx spend is expected to reach $610 billion which is an increase of $252.49 billion or 70.63% YoY Everyone complaining that these companies are spending too much on CapEx are missing the bigger picture This is what it takes to grow the amount of cash from operations and the profitability these companies produces. In 2022 the combination of $MSFT $META $AMZN and $GOOGL generated $276.3 billion in cash from operations. This increased 36.21% in 2023 to $376.35 billion then by 24.53% in 2024 to $468.67 billion and by another 23.87% in the TTM to $580.53 billion.
Luckily I have some monthlies that if it opens right at 70 will be about +10 percent. Plan is to sell for my profit and roll it into an MSFT leap and more GLD. Might buy shares as well. If it opens deep green I’ll let it ride until it stagnates then get out of the calls.
Same, I’m at 20% cash continuing DCA into VOO/VXUS. Maybe pick up some MSFT on this dip.
msft resonating with the boomers is the reason its gona moon shot, who has the most money, boomers, who invests more into 401k? Its game over man, just full port MSFT and thank us later.
You should have done this with MSFT
It looks like you paid 6900 and now it’s at 7125. I am thinking MSFT can easily drop down to 335. I do not like the pattern on the chart and it looks like it will test the left side levels. Of course it could go either way. I do not like it though as I believe MAG 7 sticks will be choppy all year.
Both are cheap now But to pick one maybe MSFT because AMZN is a bit more cyclical and more prone to be disrupted by overall economy
I think misunderstand that space entirely. Microsoft is miles ahead of anyone else in the business productivity platform space. They have identity, security, compliance, endpoint management, MDM, etc. Most business over 200 employees migrate to MSFT as soon as they step up their IT maturity Google isn’t even a credible player in that space anymore. Startups use google because that’s what they used in academia and they don’t need IT and cyber governance in their garage.
MSFT at 25 PE sounds like a steal right now.
Just exercise your long puts on MSFT and use the 800 shares to fulfill the contract I guess. Same thing happened to me on MSFT via holding a diagonal but also 5 wide. I was assigned 200 shares @ 470 so I exercised my puts at 465 and just completed the trade. It also reminded me how annoying it is when this happens and to close out put spreads or put diagonals where my long strike is lower than my short strike to avoid this situation.
Yeah I still have to use my windows pc/laptop to log onto the windows remote workstation just so i can ssh into various linux servers and do actual work. F50 company. I'm sure there's some technical/legal/policy reason we do it this way, but we have to. My point is, MSFT probably knows their ways.
MSFT will gap up 10% next week.
Why not both? I'm bought MSFT here at 395 and hold NVDA from 101 during April.
And make sure you use a limit order for the combined order that is above $425 or otherwise the market makers could take advantage of you. Otherwise if you can't get $425 for the combined order you will be better off exercising the long put to get your $425. In the past I have had options that were extremely low volume and the Bid and Ask were so wide I couldn't even get the trade to go thru at all (above the $425 using your case) and ended up just exercising the option although it looks like those MSFT $425 Put Bids are such that it's unlikely you will have that problem.
You are long a synthetic deep ITM call so there is only upside to your position. Most likely there is no time value left in the put so your best move is to simply exercise the it and your are now flat $MSFT. DO NOT leg out of the position as you are likely to lose more $ than you already have. I use Schwab TOS and you can simply exercise you option on the trading tool. I'd be surprised if Fidelity doesn't have the same feature. And the owner of the option exercises it. Just because you did a spread doesn't change that. Since you own the put, it's up to you exercise (or your broker will automatically on your behalf at expiration if it is ITM).
It really depends on your capital, but I would keep it simple by just exercising those long put contracts to close out the original bull spread. You probably never intended to buy 800 shares of MSFT. Call Fidelity on Monday to exercise the put options.
Thanks, appreciate the confirmation. Long put is 425. First assignment for me, so learning. I debated rolling on Friday, assumed I still had time and MSFT might bounce early this week - lesson learned on early assignment risk.
15% gain over the next 16+ mths to breakeven. Think you will be fine and this most likely will print once the sentiment rebounds for MSFT.
Re the sustainability of the semiconductor growth, the revenue backlog of the three biggest hyperscalers (who are mainly driving this growth) is currently $1.1 trillion. MSFT: $625 billion (up 110% YoY). $281 billion (up 969% YoY) from OpenAI and $344 billion (up 28% YoY) from other customers. AMZN: $244 billion (up 40% YoY) GOOGL: $240 billion (up 151% YoY)
I got slaughtered on MSFT, AMD and silver. When i look at msft turning in an amazing quarter and a massive sell off it tells me the extreme unrealistic level of growth priced into the market is not sustainable. I believe there will be either a controlled or uncontrolled deleveraging of the market. As others have said I would get out of margins and play defensive. Defensive consumer cyclicals have got in when selling of mag 7 have occurred. For what it’s worth I’m 100% out of msft because of double peak and failed retest at the neckline. Out of Meta because it gapped below 200ema on the 4h I am bullish on HD and Apple both above 200ema on the 4 hour + below ATH
True makes sense. Crazy that MSFT has 22 FPE and COST is 48 (WMT 44.5). Everybody chasing defensives lately
Ah thanks, you are right! I see: - MSFT PE (TTM|NTM|2027): 25.01 | 22.86 | 21.16 - META PE (TTM|NTM|2027): 27.58 | 22.38 | 19.08 so currently MSFT is cheaper and going forward META will be
I am 100%, but everyone knows that already ok seriously, why would u sell it, it's MSFT, this isn't a shitty meme stock unless you have short term options, just buy and hold it forever lul, especially now that it's 25% off ath
He's not wrong. M&A makes the most sense here. ServiceNow? Google? Even MSFT? There are not many pure plays in this space WITH the Fortune 1000 penetration Tenable has. Interesting. I am not a fan of the company at times but it's better than most other options in that space. I will dig a bit. It's a boring ass looking space but it's absolutely critical and they are belt and suspenders type stuff. Worth a look. D
According to Finviz, MSFT has a P/E of 25.10, while META has a P/E of 28.16.
Makes total sense, only problem is MMs doing weird shit. NVDA should’ve went up after MSFT and GOOGL earnings when we saw how much they were spending on capex
The risk isn't lost revenue from betting on the wrong horse, the risk is that Anthropic and Claude Co-Work annihilates Co-Pilot. MSFT has milked the Office franchise forever. Margins have been insane for a very long time. But the moat is crumbling. If that revenue begins to go away, b/c it's the highest margin of their revenue, it leads to margin compression. That's a disastrous double-whammy.
I agree with much of what you said, but I do wonder, what's wrong with stale? Companies using their product probably don't want radical changes that they have to retrain their staff on it. My experience is most companies love getting lulled into the status quo by predictable, incremental improvements, which is right up MSFT's alley.