MSFT

Nomad-2002

MSFT 568 -> 503 (-11.5%). Low 3 days ago.

Puzzleheaded_War6102

Whose making money other than NVDA? GOOG, AMZN, META are negative FCF. MSFT is getting there too. Neoclouds never made a penny of profit. Open AI or Anthropics? LMAO.

Taraih

MSFT is doen 5% not 11.4%

Nomad-2002

Stocks I was looking at (bought all except MSFT): SPCX -46.6% GOOG -31.8% NVDA -26.4% AMZN -25.5% META -25.1% MSFT -11.4% AAPL -9.0% Not buying yet:

Governmentswallows23

$CRWV and $ORCL can't expand and continue financing operations with debt, can't repay loans (hits VC, PE, Inst. Banks). $NVDA loses some of its largest customers. $GOOG, $MSFT and hyperscalers lose huge portion of future growth prospects as compute supply is evaporated, struggle to pay back loans (further hits financial firms, chip firms). OpenAI and Anthropic can't meet its compute commitments, possible default on debt as well. It's all a grade A cluster

MaleficentBus1863

She used the word "Partnership" twice. Her stance is not an ideology. It's negotiating. Dario/Sam/MSFT/AMZN....give her what she wants.

FuckleUp

I had MSFT and IWM swings with puts. Took profit early but happy

Kantmzk

VGT is wonderful. I was a big time owner of VITAX until I changed it to VGT and then liquidated my entire position to buy MSFT at the correct value. I did that because of Charlie Munger, who said: "What you have to learn is to fold early when the odds are against you, or if you have a big edge, back it heavily because you don't get a big edge often. Opportunity comes, but it doesn't come often, so seize it when it does comes." MSFT was an obvious pound the table buy this year. At this point, I think GOOGL will become that and buying GOOGL individually would be better than the index as a whole given it has become so mispriced (and still might fall further).

SkillNo1358

Oh, I see I thought you meant put out of business but yeah, it'd be nice if META or MSFT bought them

throwaway9gk0k4k569

> MSFT, META and GOOGL might as well announce today they will reduce capex spending. what difference would that make. They have real customers with real compute demand who are paying real money. They probably won't cut back that much because it would cause those customers to flee to another provider. This mechanic has been thoroughly discussed over the last two years. Anyway, the comment I wanted to make was: The market is announcing it for them.

imustbegthequestion

$MSFT down mildly. That means big gain to end the week. Right? Right?

Chance_Tea_5130

Exactly. Once again, here we are at "the wall of worry" that we've been climbing for centuries with both retail and institutions deciding what narrative to which they want to link their accounts. During GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT earnings calls over the last two weeks, multiple banks asked the same question various ways: "Is AI buildout capex spending getting to be too much? Too risky? What is the threat to free cash flow?" The stocks took a few gut punches in the headlines on Bloomberg, CNBC, and even here in various posts, and the stocks dropped. Today, the pervasive worry seems to be this "Are Dems going to kill the AI trade by slowing buildout?" narrative. So, are we worried about capex burn destroying free cash flow but fueling AI and "beating China"? Legislative regulation that likely slows down capex spend but preserves free cash flow? People can worry about whatever they want, but worrying about both of these questions is pointless and not exactly profitable from an investor standpoint.

throwawaygoawaynz

Terrible take. The big three US models are taking off in the enterprise, and some studies are linking them to productivity improvements in the US. Some companies like MSFT are even finding paths to profit, and seeing their copilot seats soar. This is why the dc regulation also might be a huge self own for the US, especially since there’s so much misinformation surrounding dcs. They have a significantly less environmental impact than agriculture and industry, yet many are powering not just AI but the digital economy.

collinspeight

CVS, PYPL, and ULTA right now. I sold MSFT early this year but everything else has pretty much stayed the same throughout the year other than adding to my positions where necessary. I'm generally very concentrated (less than 10 stocks) and hold for 5 years minimum with few exceptions.

Own-Recipe5908

MSFT will probably inherit GPT and googl/amzn calude.

Cav829

I posted [this morning](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1xofthb/comment/19s6e77wmb4f5/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) that I thought the setup for today looked rough. Did I think it was 5%+ bad? Not necessarily. But there were major factors I've been tracking for a while that were screaming that the potential was there. Since you were looking for more information, I'll explain my reasoning. Sorry for the length in advance: 1) First off, I massively de-risked back in July. I saw a lot of indications back then that something was starting to change. I'll pat myself on the back a bit for getting one of the most optimal points to get out of the pool back (missed the optimal by a few weeks). I have 2 401s, one of which had been 85%+ tech since all the way back post-GFC. I completely converted it to an 80/20 Boglehead setup. The big indicators for me were the massive topping pattern in KORU and the KOSPI sell-off as well as MU earnings marking the top in the memory trade. 2) Elaborating on the above, I watch leadership more than anything to anticipate market performance. Quite frankly, I don't care how consumer staples are doing. We could keep going up so long as the Semis and Mag7 were strong. Hence, I already kind of thought we were on borrowed time as the memory trade unwound as what was going to replace that? Leadership only continued to erode from then to the point we were basically held up by AMD, NVDA, and MSFT. Yeah, three companies basically. I'm kind of surprised more people weren't noticing how bad this was getting. 3) The Nasdaq lost support 5 trading days ago. The S&P technically briefly lost it, reclaimed it and tried to push into the moving average stack yesterday, and got swatted back down. That was a pretty bearish look. 4) Credit spreads have been blowing out for weeks. This is like the most consistently accurate super bearish indicator I've ever discovered to the point it's a cheat code. It perfectly predicted the Iran War decline, the Fall lows of last year, and Liberation Day. The market will always stay up if flows support it no matter what dumb narrative is out there. The second money dries up on the other hand, you have to watch your butt. There are some other minor things, but that's how I constructed my own reasoning as to how I was able to detect something was about to occur and what I did about it. Which was just selling tech out of my 401, raising cash, and sticking to day trading over buying much for the long-term.

moorhound

They're just not going to build this shit, because the ROI is not there. Businesses planned on doubling their AI spending this year, and instead almost went 5x because of the extreme token burn the agentic age brought. Businesses just aren't making the money to justify the spend; almost 70% of all current compute spend is just Google/OpenAI/Anthropic frontier labs trying to chase AGI. Even the big boys are scaling back, MSFT murdered Nscale with a big commitment cancellation this week. AI's a big thing, but not in the "this is going to double our GDP" way that they were promising.

Spac55

Too much over reaction. US GDP, 30 Trillion, beyond any single party left or right BigTech know how to work with both wings. Whoever invite, they go along to meet their profit margin, left & right doesn’t mater $GOOG $META $MSFT $NVDA $AMZN $CAT $JPM $GS all saw many midterm

TheRealGreenArrow420

+17.58% after today. Outside of FXAIX 401k contributions, about 10% of my portfolio is AMD, GOOG, MSFT, INTC, NVDA in order of size

Spac55

Too much over reaction. US GDP, $30 Trillion, beyond any single party left or right BigTech know how to work with both wings. Whoever invite, they go along to meet their profit margin, left & right doesn’t mater $GOOG $META $MSFT $NVDA $AMZN $CAT $JPM $GS all saw many midterm before

PerfectResult2

Options contracts are not obligations for the buyer. For the seller of the contract, yes they are The buyer has the right to exercise or not. Im just gonna work with your last example: if MSFT is trading at $100 and i buy a call option with a $300 strike price, i am BUYING the RIGHT to purchase MSFT from the seller at $300/share At any point i can exercise my right to buy MSFT for $300 and the seller has to honor that right. I can also fuck off and never exercise my right. I can also sell the contract to someone else The current value of an option contract is based on a variety of factors (the greeks), but the easiest to understand is the difference in the current trading price$, and my strike price. For calls; if its trading below the strike price my right to buy is pointless because i can get it for cheaper on the stock market, but if its trading above my strike price i basically have the right to purchase at a discount Puts are the flip side of this. So reverse everything and thats whats goin on in the screenshot above

The_Albertino

I had MSFT calls at 540, down another $5 after hours WTF

ALMessenger

AMZN and MSFT have been buying GPU without the data centers to put in being ready . . . if they decide to recover some of their investment there could be a long time to wait for demand for new chips to get back to normal

moorhound

Neoclouds basically have to do a cash raise at this point and no one's gonna bite. MSFT/SoftBank already writing off losses and planning on how to cannibalize their hardware

Western_Coffee_5445

MSFT has been up, laid off thousands to bounce stock price... way of business...get ready for more people on the unemployment line, its coming

LabyrinthLayers

If data center buildout truly slows down how is that not wildly bullish for MSFT, won’t their cash flow flip massively positive? Same for GOOG no?

codespyder

I bought 1 MSFT monthly call :)

DufflebagJoe

Everyone needs to calm down and rotate into AMZN MSFT.

shadylex

Sold my $MSFT puts too early but hey at least I made money today and I’m up on the year

aTomzVins

If this is meant to be an election reaction well Google and MSFT are still up compared to election day. Google is down compared to 6 months ago but that's an earnings report story not a election reaction.

Swiftnice

GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT are the only safe stocks for the next few months

lamewoodworker

I would buy a MSFT 530 PUT for January and it automatically V’s up. Im so stupid. Im so fucken stupid

Swiftnice

MSFT and AMZN still green for the week 

Routine-Phrase457

Don’t worry 60000 jobs going offline in December 😂😂 MSFT

Happy-Champion1661

ok but tbf it's MSFT. Too big to go bankrupt. Tell that to AI companies LMAO

jlw993

Not long ago MSFT was down 35% because "it was all over" for them. Now it's back to ATH

jlw993

Not long ago MSFT was down 35% because "it was all over" for them. Now it's back to ATH

LEAP-er

Ironically, redditard echoing ignorance in the biggest echo chamber of them all. Well done. A bit of old fashioned non-AI googling could have helped you understand how properly set up data centers have provided ecosystem benefits, from energy innovation (MSFT's Scandinavia heating experiment), construction/employment, commercial tax base (data ctr alley, va), but hey...stay victimized, my friend.

Subject-Chest-8343

Microsoft is an interesting example. It went up after the election, while everything else is going down. Reminds me of june first, when it started tanking hard, after a rally. PLTR did the same thing if memory serves. Along with many stocks for which june 1st was an inflection point. It seems like sometimes, there's this kind of big rotation going on, and some things get dumped, others are pumped, and there's no real rhyme or reason to it. As for MSFT, it looks like the whales are just following their spreadsheets, and the spreadsheets aren't fully sure if MSFT is a dinosaur legacy software company, an overleveraged AI company, or something else entirely.

night_shredder

Mag7 soon to be Mag5: GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META. The AI capex crash is actually playing in GOOG favor by murdering Open AI and Anthropic IPOs. Less cash for scaling and horrible macros, while Alphabet has many cash cows. Neoclouds FUBAR. Semis at the end of a high cycle. Looking forward to buy penny stock shit tickers in the 5-10$ range.

VegasWorldwide

I love it man. the opportunities are out there. WMT was just $103 and there was absolutely no reason why. COST was just $880 too. companies like GOOG and MSFT will survive and thrive with or without AI. our job is to identify opportunities and roll with it.

ethereal3xp

It just keeps getting more depressing.. >Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab tightens oversight of some data center projects from neocloud providers Nebius, IREN and ​Nscale, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar ‌with the matter. Whats the move? Short Nebius?

AnimalStyleCreole

The thing is $AAPL and $MSFT still got some dumpin to do, so rotation-recovery will be spread eagled out over a lot of fortune 5 hundi's and many others

moorhound

Most of it's collateralized by their hardware, which is why MSFT/SoftBank were game, but with compute rental prices continuously dropping over the past few months that deal's going sour real fast.

moorhound

MSFT signaling they are re-evaluating their relationships with neoclouds. MSFT makes up 62% of CRWV's total revenue and 42% of NScale's revenue, as well as >30% of IREN and NBIS's revenue. All of these companies are instantly insolvent without MSFT backing.

ReserveDrunkDriver

Eyyy! I sold 1/3 of my position @ $1,200 (JUN earnings) and another 1/3 @ $\~1,100 the day after SEP earnings. I also trimmed down all my individual tech positions the day after SEP MU earnings. I also went short QQQ in OCT, but stopped out yesterday (\~+90%), but left a lot of meat on the bone today 😭. Some WSB addict probably made like 20% on those contracts overnight lol I’ve only been buying DCAing into GOOGL AMZN MSFT & META. I think we are getting close to extreme fear and volatility where semis/memory might be worth a try to either start DCAing or flip for a trade? Maybe @ VIX 30?

0o0o0o0o0o0z

> These are low leveraged, well financed, reasonable P/E, battle tested companies. ... DFAQ... thats why they are all going to private credit, doing SPVs to keep shit off the books and going into negative free cash flow... I have a feeling AI is gonna be like fiber, lotta big names in AI gonna eat a dick and get gobbled up, and in ~10 years a handful of companies that were able to make it through will kill it (thinking AMZ, MSFT, META, GOOGL, and maybe Anthropic).

ConclusionEven6917

Depends how you look at it. If you're saying that the market is still positive for the year and could have more selling if it came to it, then I'd agree. However, to call it overbought from as a synonim to overvalued then I'd disagree. Semi stocks are already in deep bear market territory and that's even before anything around earnings is confirmed but rather this is front running on fear, many other smaller stocks have also not performed the greatest over the past 12 months. All you really have is stocks like Aaple and MSFT that now hold so much weight in the S&P sitting at historically high prices so the broader market looks expensive.

UnObtainium17

man, MSFT, META and GOOGL might as well announce they will reduce capex spending. what difference would that make.

Samjabr

Yyp: GOOG, SPCX, MSFT, AMZN

mcccliii

And AAPL and MSFT has not joined the party yet. Bottom is not yet in.

greenpride32

Just to add - this report doesn't cover the rumors suggesting that IREN might be late on delivering phases of the Horizon datacenters to MSFT. We will find out later today when IREN announces earnings if that is the case, because a delay would be very impactful to their projected revenue next year.

seeking-health

i should have full ported to MSFT when it was 400

OMFG789

MSFT is well positioned - OpenAI isn't.

AnimalStyleCreole

$MSFT about to get cowabunga'd back to the 400's

Rosella2562

Haha I mean 0DTE-1DTE calls mostly - Most recently the MSFT call on my watchlist (added Tuesday, rallied Wednesday- Could’ve turned $10 into $1400) Other than that the tickers where I paper-handed and missed out on 100x+ moves were mostly META, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, and a few others as well.

Swiftnice

GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, and META holding even as indexes start sliding again

MezzMezzrow1138

Yesterday was a temporary reprieve brought on by exuberance: the end of electoral uncertainty. Today it's back to the tech bubble collapsing, which has been happening for months. The tech bubble collapse is accelerating. The NASDAQ 100 is now in correction territory, off 10% from its all time highs. South Korea's KOSPI had to halt trading again last night. Today has been been the worst day for chip stocks in more than six years (March 2020). Nvidia (NVDA)'s one-year return is negative 4.17. Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL) still have more than 3 Trillion dollars in off-balance sheet spending commitments. Sentiment has shifted: the VIX is up more than 30% today alone. Fear is back in the marketplace.

zg44

Nadella looks smart for slowing MSFT's capex acceleration significantly and keeping cash flow strongly positive. Cook looks like a genius for not getting involved in the AI race at this point. Right now it's hard to see the benefit for anybody that's all in on AI capex.

MasterFaustinoIs

Anything other than APPL, MSFT or MSTR

AirSpecialist9627

For some companies, yeah. For others (and the majority of my holdings) I'm still very much up. AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, ONDS, etc

MasterFaustinoIs

Glad I decided to revenge trade APPL and MSFT puts rather than buy calls

Desperate-Plant-7766

RDDT, AMZN, META, MSFT 10k each you will thank me later

tachyonvelocity

Except no one cut due to demand, again MSFT's expected spending was lower than expected because of delays

AirSpecialist9627

AMZN is doing pretty damn good here, stil up 5% on the week. Going to be rotating some more cash in there throughout the next week or so. MSFT is another worth picking up IMO

tachyonvelocity

Which AMZN news are you referring to? MSFT expected expenditures fell not due to demand, but due to data center delays. This isn't money overall falling, but a time premium change. The money spent stays the same but is pushed out, which is short term bearish for valuations, but not long term bearish. I would argue semiconductor valuations falling already reflects this.

Swiftnice

MSFT opted not to double data center capacity in texas lol

Cav829

Bargain bin stock shopping rarely pays off outside of after a market crash. MSFT last year and GOOGL the year before are rare examples of the opposite. But look at how many people have chased the likes of ADBE all the way down. And like you alluded to, if the AI bubble pops. Why do you want to buy AI stocks? Yeah, when the dust clears you can buy them for years in the future. But there’s no rush on that.

Big_Cryptographer863

I rotated out of MSFT and got NVDA. LFG!

Astronaut100

The most comical sell off I’ve seen in 11 years of investing. What even is the logic here: that Democrats will ban AI forever? JFC. How will GOOG MSFT AMZN fulfill their backlog, with dark magic? Absolutely bonkers.

AnimalStyleCreole

never thought shorting $MSFT would be the best play of the year

SeisMasUno

You fuckin idiot, when the music stops nvidia is gonna tank harder than anyone else, they got nothing goin on but AI, you fuckin idiot, what youve done… you couldve went MSFT or AMZN but no, fuckin NVIDIA lmao

90sRiceWagon

AAPL + MSFT holding the entire market together

shadylex

Congratulations to the people who bought $MSFT puts yesterday at the top like myself

Spac55

Market is beyond single person or single party. $TSLA $SPCX $MU $NVDA $META $MSFT $AMZN $SPY $QQQ all red days buying opportunity AI not going away Its buyback time in Q4

StonkaTrucks

Was losing sleep over my MSFT puts expiring tomorrow so panic sold at open. Let's see how much better it could have been.

Swiftnice

Considering the gains from yesterday MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL are barely pulling back

Arrowhead_Pride15

Are you 100% certain that we are at the "peak" of the cycle? Because every CEO of every chip company and hyperscaler are saying the opposite. Capex is only projected to go up over the next year and TSM/SKHY/MU etc are have demand exceeding supply for multiple quarters (if not years in TSM case), is it still fair to say as a blanket statement that semiconductors are cyclical commodities? Have you noticed how there are semiconductors and screens and sensors in everything these days from wearables, applicanes, medical tech, autonomous vehicles etc, do you expect all of those industries to just stop using as many semiconductors in the future? Even without AI, post-iPhone has been a pretty consistent increase in demand for this technology for years, is it really fair to just say "whelp chips are cyclical" and sell off some of the most profitable companies in the world? NVDAs net income could fall 30% next year and they would still be in line with AAPL, MSFT, and GOOG as the highest operating profit in the SP500, are we really THAT confident that NVDA profits are going to fall by 30%+ in the next few years? Place your bets!

Whole-Description646

$MSFT at all time highs, $QQQ has more space to dump

shadylex

$MSFT PUTS let’s gooo

Cryptosupergod

let me check MSFT, AMZN and APPL

shadylex

Who tf is buying microslop $MSFT at 558

greenpride32

A dog such as KHC is up over 5.5% over past 5 days. Does anyone believe this will form a base long term and only go higher from there? Doubtful. This is why retail often loses to the index returns. They easily buy a narrative shaped in a single day. Well these type of stocks went up they must be good; these type of stocks went down they must be bad. Ultimately the financials will drive the stock price up or down. Buying and holding companies with consistently growing top and bottom line will eventually reward you. Remember MSFT droping to $350 or less just month or two ago? Yet look at their 10Q's and there is no problem at all. Look at stock price and look at financial performance and you see two stories. But keeping a close watch on one of those stories is what grows my net worth. Wall Street makes money from liquidity. That is why their media is all about new ideas and what's next. They want you to move your positions around - they don't care where, because they take slices of that liquidity no matter what.

shadylex

Cmon $MSFT go down like the promiscuous girl we all know you are

Swiftnice

Money is going to flow out of Semis, memory, PLTR, SPCX and TSLA and back into AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, and META

Bazzer82

It was hedge funds and investors that were trash, not MSFT.

stupidber

Remember when MSFT was trash?

AKmaninNY

The debt these companies hold is typically tied to term contracts that pay for the hardware. Often, the companies cannot obtain the financing without customers, product and space in hand or close to in hand. Don’t confuse depreciation schedules for tax purposes with the physical life and the useful life of the asset. GH chips had a depreciation schedule of 3-4 years against a physical life of 6-7 years. You are seeing in the NBIS announcement that the chips seem to have a useful life that is closer to the physical life. This makes the current debt load make even more sense. Rental economics after the debt is retired need to cover the cost of operation and the rest is profitable…… Eyes wide open as you say…..there is insatiable demand and significantly less capacity. In the current political environment, neoclouds may well be punished in favor of those that already hold the resources: goog, aws, MSFT, meta…..

hermeskino715

AAPL, AMZN, MSFT just carrying this shit :kek:

MasterFaustinoIs

Bart Simpson pattern on MSFT, begin loading puts for next week

Good_Ride_2508

Worked many years in Cisco and moved out now, still friends are there. Based on my discussion, Cisco will follow MSFT, GOOGL in cost cutting Voluntary retirement programs. Major technology transformation using AI is happening and that will also reduce costs in the long run. The stocks won’t go down easily as fundamentals for growth is higher at this stage.

oldprecision

MSFT hitting new highs while AI bros cry is savage.

Maximas80

Same. It is really just the nature of stock prices that they drift sideways for a while, then you get a big move up or down. META, MSFT, AMZN, it has happened to all of them this year.

CD274

Wait what but wasn't MSFT's spending delay a good thing for msft

Kind-Development-785

Nice on the APP pop, but one earnings night says nothing about a ten year hold. I look for revenue that comes back on its own without having to re-win the deal every quarter, which is why I'd take MSFT or Veeva over ZETA. Position sizing matters more than the pick anyway.

shadylex

Expecting to see $MSFT pullback after hitting ATH today

Anxious_Benefit_6720

Holding MSFT since End of July (+52%) and thinking about selling and moving the money to semis/memorys. Please tell me its a bad idea

aemus001

Welp, that's why MSFT and AMZN dgaf

aemus001

Dude.. not so loud... GDP is fukd, i know. MSFT and AMZN shou l d be fune

aemus001

Well that's why AMZN and MSFT are winning