MSFT

gentlesandwich

Any astrologers online? Is that upward red star on daily a reversal upward? MSFT

Ancient-Tank-5330

**Don't buy individual AI startups** unless you really know what you're doing. most will fail. NVDA, cloud providers, data center REITs. boring but profitable. wait for OpenAI's IPO or buy MSFT (they own 49% of OpenAI's profits). or just buy an AI-focused ETF and let someone else pick the winners.

ReadGroundbreaking17

Yes, tech is here to stay, there's no disputing that. The question is whether the current trend is a bubble or not. Look at MSFT from from mid-90s to now. The dotcom bubble is barely a blip on their chart (\~$50) when compared with current prices (\~$450+). The MAG7 will undoubtably survive but if we are in a bubble -and I personally think we are - you could well be buying in at ATHs. If the bubble pops its its going to hurt, badly.

ProjectENIS

AI technology is NOT the same as AI investment. You can have continously progressing technology and an investment bubble at the same time. This is why developments in AI (deepseek methodology, Google TPU, etc) can sometimes be bad for AI investments (as it shifts the narrative on what chips are needed, etc). IMO, AI the technology is here to stay, but that's a topic for a technology sub, not an investment one. Investment wise, I think bubble burst will manifest as the killing of all small AI companies, and centralization of hyperscaler output to a few names. Reason is that AMZN, MSFT and GOOGL were all talking about scaling up AI hardware, so they must be seeing demand coming in. On the flip side, if AI were to be a bust, these are also the names who can reallocate the hardware to their cloud services (probably not very efficently but its something at least), or maybe they can cut spending and see 1 or 2 earning cycles boosted that way. Positions: Long AMZN and Long GOOGL.

gentlesandwich

I know most of the night crew are bears who hate money, but MSFT is gearing up for a nice bounce

groovewhisperer

I have to say, I subscribed to MF Stock Advisor way back in the day. MF was my first exposure to trading. Have no idea what they do today, but they did quite well by me back then. Purchased DIS, AAPL, MSFT, NFLX, PCLN and a host of others based on their advice. Eventually moved on from them…

SubstantialAffect835

MSFT, you dirty ho, all I need you to do is not go significantly lower. Just stay here! If you want to go up, that is fine.

DankTrebuchet

I feel like this is very easy to say if you don’t understand the model architecture- and harder to say the more you understand. It’s likely the models will eventually generate large revenue streams - but only for firms without massive debt (ie Google, Meta, MSFT). But those with massive debt… IDK. Oracle is not exactly a company i want exposure to. Yan LeCun is the best example of a contrarian expert on the topic and I think he makes a good point in the interviews ive seen. Those touting LLM as the future tend to be directly tied to LLMs performance.

burnertaintlol

the way some of ya'll talk you think MSFT is literally going to zero lmao They literally had the biggest earnings in the history of the MAG7 earlier this year and their *profit* was 12 figures and 4th in the country. Their PE was 23 recently and is only 25 now.

Available-Range-5341

I think now is a good time to buy CRM, MSFT, AMT, HD, BX, and PG. Maybe ES. BX may be a bit controversial, but the rest are good AND all dipped a bit so you're getting a bit of a sale, which is why I recommend them. MMM and CLX are in dips after recent rallies so might be good to I'm assuming you're saying you don't care about the next ten years but I am sure at some level, you'd be pissed if you lost $ tomorrow, hence I recommend things already down but with good earnings Actually making this list I realized credit card stocks are way down too, maybe AXP is a buy?

regardbullbuyer

!banbet MSFT $410 1D

D74248

CSCO was "doing something", and just recently recovered to its dotcom high. MSFT took 14 years. QCOM took 19 years. This Reddit narrative that the dotcom bubble only hurt investors who were in highly speculative/no earnings companies is deeply flawed.

Dude_HaHa

SPY to 200 QQQ to 150 Oil to $400 Gold to $10,000 TSLA to 0 MSFT to 50 GOOG to $20 AMZN to 40 AAPL to $500

SemensAccurate

MSFT 300C Jan 2027 and putting some PMCC in while we wait.

TeamFoulmouth

Dumped all my free cash into MSFT this morning...🤦‍♂️..I aint got nothin' I can move on now!

Available-Range-5341

IDK but I am looking at the one minute chart in finviz and here are a few examples of volume: MSFT: during the day, about 20K shares a minute, AH, about 100, 200, maybe 500 shares a minute

Icy-Sheepherder-7595

It's ok. I did buy a ton of MSFT at $400, but I also I panic sold my Google up 10% on the fear Nvidia wasn't going to beat earnings last year, somewhere in the high $220 range I forget, thought with all the fear it had to come back down, well I was very wrong clearly. You win some you lose some.

sleebus_jones

Same happening with MSFT

owngoalmerchant

For perspective, $MSFT has committed $17 billion over the next five years.

Critical_Survey_975

This just in ** My MSFT calls, utterly fucked **

pineapplekiwipen

even MSFT up means MSFT down

Deadsea3132

Anything up means MSFT down

gentlesandwich

Can a wrinkle brained individual please explain why USO up = MSFT down?

YogurtWorking9246

I bought MSFT for $25 in 2013 when I first started investing. My reasoning: “Huh. This is a big company. Wonder why it’s so cheap.” Sold a couple months ago for $487.

DayOne117

Straddle. Premium is so juicy. Mainly on MSFT/SPY with some ENPH thrown in the mix

Aggravating_Ad_8453

And it's still green while my Fu cking MSFT with 18% yoy down 20% from high.

CakesRacer522

Asking a question for my own understanding, but generally wouldn’t more legs mean more slippage in entering and exiting more legs? MSFT options are liquid, but is my underlying intuiting correct? (Thanks in advance. I’m slowly building knowledge before starting to invest my ‘upside’ capital)

greenpride32

>focus on ETFs that are not heavily invested in the AI and technological sector Tech generates by far the most profits in today's world. Profits are what drives invidual stock prices up in value, and thus the indices holding them. Leaving them off the table means less return. Your SP500 and NAS100 top weights are NVDA AAPL GOOGL GOOG MSFT AMZN META AVGO and all of them are consistently setting new top and bottom line numbers over time. NVDA and AAPL each broke $40b in profit last quarter. Also past few years, growth has been dominated by semiconductor (SMH) and other AI adjacencies such as energy and datacenter infrastructure. You might find an ETF that has done well in past 1Y or even 5Y period. But it likely won't hold up to ETF's holding the above in the long run. Something like VDPG doesn't even beat SP500 on 5Y lookback. With SP500, it rotates winners in and losers out. That's why it histroically goes up over time. So by holding it, you don't need to be concerned with which sectors or companies are prospering and which ones are not.

gentlesandwich

Got stuck on a business call around 4, so I guess I'm holding overnight MSFT calls....

Pin-Last

Don’t wait on MSFT, it probably holds the 381 bottom 

Pin-Last

I think the bottom is in, an educated guess. MSFT touched 381 in Feb but doesn’t seem to want to go below 400 for now. Maybe the SaaS carnage will continue but I (and analysts) think it’s probably higher now for software. CMG & WDAY dropped a bit, them & msft may be giving u a 2nd chance 

5StarMan94

I’m now into month two of my quick one day flip after buying the MSFT post earnings dip

MulayamChaddi

#MSFT unleashes Windows 13!!!!

Emilio___Molestevez

doing $MSFT a favor here honestly

cbusoh66

MSFT software is toast, can't believe it's still holding above $400

askepticoptimist

Those allocation percentages are nuts. Though I do agree SaaS is currently discounted and full of too-large-to-fail companies with piles of money to innovate. MSFT is not gonna go bankrupt...they'll either embrace and extend AI, or AI will be a nothingburger. Not sure why people think they're just going to just ignore AI and be obsoleted into non-existence...Same goes for alot of other companies in that segment. Either way, SaaS has a good floor, and is currently super discounted. Long term, China I wouldn't touch with a 20-ft pole. Their demographics are disastrous going forward. They can likely overcome *some* of the pop decline with AI and automation, but you're ice skating uphill chasing that market. There's easier money elsewhere.

maschin1982

MSFT 410$ tomorrow. Please

pineapplekiwipen

MSFT is the worst stock this world has ever seen

gentlesandwich

If banbet wasn't restrictive, I'd banbet MSFT $405 by close

Such_Coin

I live on the California coast, so I'll let you regards know first if I see anything so you can profit. I wouldn't hold your breath, though. It seems even less likely than MSFT closing green.

TipsyFajita

MSFT

Commercial_Seat_3704

404: MSFT not found

StygianUnknown

# SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - Playbook Analysis **The Narrative (Phase 1):** SPY represents the 500 largest companies in the US. Right now, the market is in a defensive "wait-and-see" mode ahead of major inflation data and the March 20th quadruple witching expiration. We are seeing a tug-of-war between the AI-led momentum (NVDA, MSFT) and fears of a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment. **The Pressure (Phase 3):** * **Short Interest:** **\~12%** (Mostly institutional hedging). * **Borrow Rate:** **0.25%**. **(FAIL - No Squeeze Pressure)**. * **Days to Cover:** **0.87 Days**. **(FAIL - Liquid Market)**. * *Summary:* There is zero "trap" potential here. SPY is the most liquid asset on Earth; shorts can exit in seconds. This isn't a squeeze; it’s a macro trend play. **The Magnet (Phase 4):** The primary Gamma Call Wall for the April 17th expiration is sitting at **$682.00**, representing the immediate ceiling for the current recovery attempt. **The Math (Phase 10):** *"Our customized Black-Scholes-Merton model indicates a* ***92.41%*** *probability of reaching the* ***$682.00*** *Ignition Point (a* ***0.82%*** *ROI), and a* ***64.00%*** *probability of reaching the* ***$697.84*** *Exhaustion Ceiling (a* ***3.16%*** *ROI) by the* ***April 17, 2026*** *options expiration."* **The Reward Distribution (Phase 7):** * **Target 1 - Ignition Point ($682.00):** \* **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1 : 0.39** (Mathematically poor for a trade). * **Target 2 - Exhaustion Ceiling ($697.84):** *Metric: 52-Week High.* * **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1 : 1.52**. **The Risk (Phase 6):** The structural floor is **$662.39** (The 3-month/13-week low). * **Max Downside:** **2.08%**. * **Risk Tier:** **Tier 1 (Fortified)**. **Verdict:** **HOLD.** SPY is currently in a high-probability "slow grind" zone. With a **92% probability** of hitting the $682 resistance, the market is signaling a return to its recent range. However, because the ROI is so low (sub-4%), this is a capital-preservation play, not a profit-maximization play. The **Tier 1 Risk Profile** makes it the safest place to park cash, but the "degenerates" looking for a squeeze will find it boring.

DJ_LilSmoke

Nice, I think I'll buy MSFT

Critical_Survey_975

MSFT makes me wanna hurl rocks at civilians

Lapidated_Llama

I sold my MSFT calls it Vs here

greenpride32

>The problem is that these stocks had experienced a huge bull market since 2018-2019. And so we are now in a corrective phase or a systemic change. You're not going to have any success with long term investing if this is your thought process. VOO or SP500 has 10% annual rate of return with dividends reinvested for 70 years. It is basically been on a bull market ride forever. What do companies such as MSFT MA V GOOGL do - they consistently increase top and bottom line year after year. Sure they can swing down due to macro issues, but this is a great time to buy more. What do growing companies do - they increase in valuation - this means they are always setting new all time highs. Would I buy today at $70 all time high if tomorrow is $80? Sure. The bulk of the companies you mentioned have no top line growth - you can only squeeze so much bottom line out of that. I have worked for Fortune 100 and Mag 7 - believe we spent alot more than any of those other companies on conferences, events, employee gifts and perks and RSU.

calm_discussion_3500

It could be way worse. Look at MSFT delivering 60% growth and still in the dumpster lmao (another holding of mine).

Lapidated_Llama

Sold my MSFT calls at the bottom I’m done bruh.

Hussle-And-Motivate

hey look its the regard who spent 50k on 1DTE MSFT calls

BarbellPadawan

I’m going to get long MSFT again

Lapidated_Llama

Sold my MSFT calls I bought TODAY for a 1.45k loss . I am retarded

Lapidated_Llama

I currently have my entire portfolio in MSFT weekly calls and was down 25% or 2.5k at one point. I have a problem

guy_cloutier

MSFT have r/valueinvesting vibes

Effective_Throat6127

Why MSFT is just a shit stock ?

Available-Range-5341

So I don't become the "guy who complains TSLA is up," we should start an inverse-me fund since I have a special ability to crash stocks. My recent accomplishments were CRM, MSFT and now STAG and BX. The big red candle literally occurred two seconds after my purchase occurred. If there are any put buyers interested in such a service:-)

5StarMan94

MSFT isn’t even trying anymore

_TheGoogz

All kidding aside, wtf MSFT?

Kickboy21

MSFT back to being a dog shit 💩

weewoowewoooo

MSFT needs to be delisted already. Absolute garbage company lmfaooo

Lapidated_Llama

Damn MSFT calls weren’t the move :/

Stop_The_Rain

MSFT is officially dead!

Vegetable_Push6542

Man I got lucky as fuck today. Bought puts on CRCL which is the only red stock besides MSFT in my list. Would have got blown out otherwise.

Vegetable_Push6542

MSFT jumping off a cliff. In other news, the sky is blue.

GoZukkYourself

MSFT is heavily dependent on oil.

Commercial_Seat_3704

Dog shit MSFT reporting for duty

rocier

Could MSFT stop being retarded please

calm_discussion_3500

The market is stagnant, not companies. S&P 500 is delivering double digit 14%+ earnings growth. Massacred software like MSFT are delivering 60%+ growth. Sideways price but underlying growth just means every day stocks are getting cheaper.

Commercial_Seat_3704

MSFT probably red in less than 30 minutes

awetfartruinedmylife

MSFT

PM_ME_UR_DRAG_CURVE

> Iran attacking MSFT datacenter Considering Azure's reliability track record, most sysadmins won't even notice that. Istg Azure cloud exists as a jobs program to keep customer's oncall engineers employed...

Commercial_Seat_3704

MSFT plunging in 15 minutes

Caked_Up9

Lmao yeah my MSFT calls are hurting rn

oxphatxo

Actually decided to omit the bull put. The risk profile isn’t worth the credit on a big drop and the short call is enough to offset drag from the weekly lotto long anyway. Correct it may not be the perfect time to enter into an upward trend on MSFT but it is on sale and who knows for how long. I’m testing it anyway in a sim account so it’ll be good to see how it performs in this type of situation. I built a spreadsheet using Claude that shows different scenarios against holding shares or naked long calls. Shares of course outperform in any drop more than 3.5%. The strategy outperforms shares in sideways and upside, outperforms on big over gap ups over 7.5% vs the naked calls because the lotto covers more than the short roll cost which is the whole idea, save the PMCC from assignment and time value loss. The naked calls outperform a tiny bit on up trends because there’s no bear call drag but lotto makes up for most of the bear drag. Overall, the strategy makes everything smoother. Downside risk is still much worse than shares in a large gap of course because it’s leveraged, large gap ups strategy wins and you keep the PMCC in play with gains not losses, flat and slightly down less than 3% beats out shares and naked leaps. Everything is very dynamic so figures aren’t perfect but overall beats out naked leaps if you understand how to implement and manage the position as a whole machine.

Individual_Hair1401

Real talk analyst ratings are a good pulse check, but I've learned to take them with a grain of salt. Everyone was calling a "tech bubble" back in 2015, and if you listened then, you would've missed a massive run on the Nasdaq-100. I personally keep a close eye on the "Magnificent Seven" because they basically move the whole market now. Honestly, I just look for companies with a wide moat like MSFT or GOOGL and try to ignore the short-term noise lol.

Craptcha

where’s that agent getting its data from though? you need a data and identity governance layer. That’s MSFT. The problem with AI is that its a SaaS by default, if you want it to work on your data then it has to be transferred to the LLM. And unless you are MSFT then that LLM is “somewhere else” with a different legal, regulatory and cybersecurity context. So much easier just to stick to the pre-vetted MSFT environment. That’s how a lot of larger enterprises think.

deadmenrunning

Am I reading this right? Bought call option for 30k shares for $1.7 for 4 days and need MSFT to shoot up super fast or end up at like 422 to break even?

TheRealArmament

Good shit for your age. I’m personally holding 80k worth of MSFT/ 40k HOOD in addition to my ETFs

jaajaajaa6

I added options at $400 that run for three quarters. I expect this to be a purchase that out performs the market given that time frame. Hedgeye considers MSFT a short as they predict Azure and AI will not work out for them. I disagree and put my money where my mouth is.

Hamzehaq7

man, that's a pretty intricate setup you've got going on! layering a dynamic iron condor on top of a PMCC sounds interesting, especially if you're looking to cushion that downside while still capturing upside with MSFT. i get your AI capex thesis, but tbh, with all the market noise lately (like that whole G7 call on energy prices and the Iran crisis), it feels like we're in a bit of a bumpy ride. your idea of using a bear call to offset losses makes sense, but just keep an eye on those OTM strikes—like you mentioned, you’re still exposed below them. also, rolling the bear call up sounds solid for managing that friction, just make sure you're not getting too tight on strikes if MSFT starts jumping on good news. the long call lotto hedge is a smart play though, can't hurt to have some cheap protection if things get crazy. what’s your target for the short OTM call, you thinking just to play it safe or aiming for something more aggressive?

Rosella2562

Haha this is so true 😂 From experience, but you gotta lose money on daily/weekly MSFT calls like 5 times just to make sure 👌🏻

Green_Conclusion5792

Week 31 of buying MSFT 500c weeklies until it randomly moons and makes me incredibly rich

cbusoh66

This AAPL MacBool Neo is the shits, wonder if it will be an overall positive or cannibalize the higher end Macs? Puts on MSFT either way

Disastrous_West5865

I dont believe MSFT AH price action one pit that MF going to 403.30 1 min before the market opens

Charming_Raccoon4361

no wonder MSFT is going down, thanks SAM

Green_Conclusion5792

Oil this oil that, I just want my MSFT to move a little bit, man :(

PushAble2463

Only have a few index funds in the US and like 14 shares of MSFT left 😂 Other than that I’m about 40 % in a mix of japanese, korean, swedish, danish, norwegian boring index funds, like 30% in DOFG shares, like 10 % boring norwegian consultancy companies, bank stocks and 20 % WWIIB shares. Then some play money on the side for gambling (everything from metals, oil, wheat, ghourds etc 🤠)

creemeeseason

I've done a little hedging. I bought some OTM calls for April on XOM. If oil goes nuts....gravy. If not... I'm out a few bucks. I also mentioned last week that I bought some calls NTR and ADM. Both have been doing well regardless and will benefit from the closure. Same deal, I might make money regardless, but won't lose a ton, and stand to do well. It's also pretty apparent from futures pricing last week the market was not pricing in higher oil for longer. Summer and fall contracts barely moved. Of course, now the Treasury is saying they're going to short futures to artificially suppress the price...which works til it doesn't. So you can make some asymmetric bets. I don't think it's an either or with a MSFT. Very different play. If you buy MSFT, I'd assume you're buying and holding. In comparison, anything with commodities has a shelf life. Also, if oil goes nuts, MSFT is not going to work in the same timeframe. So it's nice to have a little insurance.

zxc123zxc123

Cause dude''s retarded and on r/wallstreetbets Not saying I'm much better. Sold MSFT put right after earnings thinking the knife would get me. Assigned 100 $430. Doubled down by buying shares even as it has continued to decline.

Ozqi

Can’t wait for MSFT to go up 30% the moment I sell my calls

Hussle-And-Motivate

ORCL help our little buddy MSFT tomorrow, will ya?

guy_cloutier

ORCL will save MSFT

Lapidated_Llama

Risked 5k in weekly MSFT calls for 14 whole dollars 😎

Lapidated_Llama

Sold my 5k of weekly MSFT calls that I was down 1k on for 14 dollars 😮‍💨🙌

calm_discussion_3500

I think you can't know the future but can make very strong educated guesses. I think the worst case fears of a 20 years war seem way overblown and feel confident it won't happen. Moreover, at these prices it has to be a binary bet. If it resolves quickly many commodities are going to collapse. If that risk is not something you want to take there are tons of great companies like software that have been pummeled to the ground like MSFT still delivering 60% profit growth.

Lapidated_Llama

Put 5k into MSFT weekly calls two hours ago and have averaging down and much stress I’m Proud to say I sold for 14 DOLLARS 😂

SimonAD3

Why is MSFT so shit!

DeliciousAdvisor8132

MSFT short is so dumb bro

Such_Coin

MSFT of course

VirgillMastercard

Fuck you MSFT