MSFT

Jumpy_Bus7817

NVDA is interesting. Briefly up for a bit this year, and its back to where it was last year. Average price targets have it around a 60% upside. Even if half of rhe most bullish targets are high, then its still a 20-30% higher projection. I think it might go on a similar run like MSFT did back late this summer

ResultAfraid8340

I play both sides, only it didn’t work on Amazon or MSFT. Success so far in Goog, META, INTC, SPCX Have positions in PLTR and Tim Apple

Panthera__Tigris

After GOOG fell so much and even MSFT fell, I KNEW reddit, Intel and Sandisk will also fall no matter the earnings. Yet, I did not take a short position. You did. Good job.

Intelligent-Land2648

I don't know if it's worse than chatgpt / other LLMs because I don't use it. I just know that they did not want to push it to consumers, despite actually inventing the first widespread language model*. The Chatgpt posed a huge threat to them and they had no choice. I think putting it into search was their idea to save search. Then OpenAI cut that deal with MSFT. *You could say AI was invented in the 80s even if not technically possible. Google invented the first wide language model.

98Saman

Confusing a shorter time stock price overreaction with the actual underlying business is the exact mistake retail makes every single earnings season. The "market" also dumped Meta to $88 in 2022 and MSFT to $360 a few months ago over capex fears before both ripped to new all-time highs. Did you even listen to the actual earnings call? The underlying business just grew revenue 25% YoY to $127.6B, grew operating income 30% to $40.6B, and doubled Google Cloud (+103% YoY) to $30.7B with a $561B backlog. The stock sold off because Wall Street panicked over $51.4B in upfront data center capex. Also, if we are talking about who knows more, Berkshire Hathaway is literally involved here and bought in more back in June around $350. I'll gladly take the underlying fundamentals and Buffett's playbook of buying great cash-flow machines during short-term capex panics over a short time sell-off.

Intelligent-Land2648

Yes, poor MSFT. They had to dump 60,000 "teammates" who are "like family" and wall st totally didn't even appreciate it.

Misdefined

Lmaoooo funny how 2 months ago people were saying MSFT should replace their ceo

itstheskylion

It’s just panic a couple of months back MSFT was trending at 380 and NVDA below 200 but no one was shitting their pants at that time because NBIS and micron were printing. Now MSFT is at 500+

gtaFrench

AMZN is down 3% and MSFT is flat for the week. What are you all talking about?

greenpride32

It's like armchair RDDT posters think that leadership at the top companies in the world are willing to spend large sums of money on resources without knowing if there is actual demand to consume such resources. Your AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT and your frontier AI labs are bidding on any new neocloud capacity that is made available because they don't have enough. Imagine being in the business of selling compute, and at same time willing to pay a neocloud their margin markup on same compute. There is only one scenario in which that happens, and that is you can leverage the resource for even more.

Dazzling-Cheetah5951

Any time bears are spreading FUD on RDDT, the bottom is in. They pulled the same on Liberation Day. I see the same kind of regard posting that GOOGL is going to 250 as the MSFT ones who were saying 310. GOOGL back at 320 by Friday 🤌💰👍

ateranol

Just a couple months back MSFT had lower share price than GOOGL

One_Advantage_7193

The neo clouds came up before the chip sales began(goog and amzns). Thats what i meant when i said different semis would behave differently. Because of the complex inter relationships. Sndk is needed by everyone, nvidia isnt. Idle chips is manifesting in 2 ways, ready to go datacenters because no power for them. And winter is coming. Another case is those chips sitting in the warehouses because the DCs haven't even been built out yet. Those can be sold back into the market if cash flow trimming is needed, especially if demand looks to taper( not any time soon). MSFT is overstretched, amy said that their new DCs capacity get taken up entirely as soon as it's turned on. Add that to customer complaints on the subs like azure and other places proves that msft will lose their loyal customers if they don't build out fast enough. They need the buildout and power on like yesterday. Canada having power isn't going to help, if at all they do, because it's the American grid that's weak, the power would need to be brought all the way to Virginia and Texas. Both are already heavily stressed out and can't handle the additional gigawatts of flow needed. And Grid buildout isn't going to happen anytime soon atleast 7 years out. Also canadian dams are running out of water. On-site generation it is for foreseeable near term. One hurricane or a storm could wreak havoc to the existing grid in a way that'll cripple operations. It will be interesting to see how on site generation will keep up during the winter.

Smallest-Yeet

wtf MSFT lmfao

BuffaloSabresFan

I'm not sure if its hedge funds, but yes, people are selling off other AI plays to free up cash for the Anthropic IPO. If Anthropic has $50-$100B available on day one, thats the entire market cap of some of the neoclouds, so people are dumping stuff like CRWV and IREN for the bigger player. But there's more at play. They aren't dumping NVDA or the hyperscalers en masse. Those are crashing because AI is proving to be a lot of smoke and wrecking the financials of GOOG, MSFT, etc. Google is spending money to destroy its own moat ffs.

One_Advantage_7193

Yup especially MSFT, AAA rated

2020isgreat

To the people comparing MSFT to GOOGL I never knew MSFT's main business was search lmfao

Own-Recipe5908

Holy crap, just noticed MSFT built in a "help-me-type" blue dot over the text cursor in edge. Lemme see how it works... LMAO I called it a dumbass while asking it to explain why it exists and its output was blocked by MSFT.

barnacle9999

There is more upside with Google and Reddit compared to holding MSFT. Also no capital gains taxes where I live, so I can rotate into other stocks pretty easily.

Icy-Sheepherder-7595

Why dump the MSFT with such a low cost basis? I'm a little higher at $390 and not as large of a position ($60k) it's my most confident hold currently and as much as I'd want to lock in some of that profit I don't know why I'd give up the one stock that had good news this week

Spac55

BigTech are global. They have big cashflow. They saw future with AI adoption As big cash flow growing. They keep spending for AI-infrastructure build up Look coding jobs, now all coding by AI $MSFT $META $GOOG $AMZN $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $ASML $QQQ $SMH $SPY Watch liquidity today

WSB-mods-are-

MSFT holding up so well fr

ateranol

Just a few months ago, this sub was full of crying MSFT bagholders. How the tables turn

Icommandyou

MSFT AMZN META are far better equipped to navigate the AI world than GOOG so GOOG calls will definitely print soon

barnacle9999

I had about 100k in RDDT at around $120 average. Added another 60k today at $94. Similarly had about 80k in GOOG at $240 average. Added another $100k today at $279. I funded this by selling 160k of my MSFT position at $523. I have an average of $365 on MSFT.

NobodyGivesAFuc

MSFT

cock_pussy

But I love that Indian too much like how I love Mr Nutella from MSFT

NotGucci

Feels like both MSFT+GOOGL are. Not selling off hard.

squibius

Shares on RKLB bought in the teens. Leaps on Goog bought yesterday, leaps on MSFT bought back when it was sub 400, leaps on BE bought yesterday

NoProfessional4650

Even MSFT got punished…. For what? Nobody knows. Just in this market AI bad.

EmergencyRace7158

This might be the AI bubble popping but I'm skeptical because the markets are focusing on the wrong things. They're focusing on AMZN, GOOG and INTC missing guidance targets but they should be focusing on the far more bearish story of MSFT beating because they undershot capex due to datacenter delays and cancelations. This is a capex bubble and it will pop when it becomes obvious that far from growing forever, a vast majority of guided capex is unrealistic to spend in any sort of reasonable timeframe.  My guess is the banks lower their expectations for NVDA's guidance on 11/18 and leave Jensen an easy layup for his usual narrative pumping bs. They can then go back to saying the AI trade is back on and trigger a relief rally so that Anthropic can safely list this bonus year for the sell side. I'm taking profits on my Nov expiry semiconductor puts today and will wait for a pop to reload for a Jan expiry.

OtisB

I made a lot of money buying MSFT at 355 and 380. Every time some hug megacap tech company that's fully entrenched in our lives takes a dip, it's a buying opportunity. I'm not talking about adobe. I'm talking about google. microsoft. amazon. the future will bring more names too.

zg44

Everybody got spooked by the AMZN FCF and INTC earnings. AMZN and GOOG are basically acting like start ups in terms of how much money they're burning to build out AI. MSFT is at least still FCF positive and should be for much of next year.

cock_pussy

btw I never had the chance to thank you, you are the one that led me to buy MSFT Calls on Apr 13, my first USD 150k

squibius

Lol, dude, you need to relax. Ive closed half my MSFT position over the last 20 days. Ill manage my money, you manage yours. I know my side works just fine, you need to do you.

moatandmargin

Agree the doom posts get old, since these companies still print cash. The fair worry is narrower: when several of them raise spending in the same quarter, investors want to see the payback sooner. I hold GOOG, META and MSFT, and I'm watching cloud growth against spending, not daily market cap swings.

kingofwakanda38

Same MSFT. June Dip low: $350; current day: $530

DudeManBroGuy9

This investing shit is only as hard as you make it. Bought the large MSFT dip earlier this year, sold for 33% gain. Recently bought the large MCD dip, green on that, will sell once it’s past $300. Today I will take a large position in TQQQ and GOOG. Will be 30%+ within 12 months or less. gg.

EmergencyRace7158

This might be the AI bubble popping but I'm skeptical because the markets are focusing on the wrong things. They're focusing on AMZN, GOOG and INTC missing guidance targets but they should be focusing on the far more bearish story of MSFT beating because they undershot capex due to datacenter delays and cancelations. This is a capex bubble and it will pop when it becomes obvious that far from growing forever, a vast majority of guided capex is unrealistic to spend in any sort of reasonable timeframe. My guess is the banks lower their expectations for NVDA's guidance on 11/18 and leave Jensen an easy layup for his usual narrative pumping bs. They can then go back to saying the AI trade is back on and trigger a relief rally so that Anthropic can safely list this bonus year for the sell side. I'm taking profits on my Nov expiry semiconductor puts today and will wait for a pop to reload for a Jan expiry.

Taraih

AMZN recovered almost all of it with several misses lol. MSFT dropped more on amazing earnings than AMZN did on theirs

DancingCow

Jesus MSFT

vermilli21

# There goes MSFT LMAO

chickadee_guy

Colossus, the nebius one, and the Google+MSFT arizona ones

greenpride32

The reality is AMZN and GOOGL didn't care about their short term numbers because they are focused on their longer term growth. Companies of this size with in demand products and services can easily hit "the numbers" by some combination of sales and promotions or delaying spend until the next quarter. Your "lower tier" companies do this all the time. But I don't think they even care. The real money is made by investing in a company that grows over time, and you invest and hold and maybe buy more over time. It's the balance sheet that matters, not the short term stock price. If you looked at long term charts for MSFT AMZN GOOGL of top and bottom line, well it's basically up and to the right. Had you just looked at the stock chart you see a very different picture. In the longer term, that former chart will propel the latter chart up and to the right - but it won't always be a consistent pattern.

Extension-Horse-5331

Did people finally figure out that anthropic and openAI are just taking all the investment money and loans and giving it to NVDA, SpaceX and MSFT? It's such a pyramid scheme. They're never paying anyone back.

funlovefun37

The entire stock market was down on MSFT. SoFtWaRe was dead. It wasn’t fun holding MSFT for a dead year, yet here we are almost back to all time highs.

Ok-Antelope269

MSFT gonna be green when everyone red again?

Cav829

Month 10 of that war with no end in sight. Korea, China, and Brazil stock markets have crashed. Every hyperscaler went cash flow negative (save MSFT which is hanging on by a thread and gutting its work force to avoid it). Rates skyrocketed higher with the Fed likely to hike twice more in the next few months, meaning this temporary dip in rates is not likely to hold long. Every tech company is choking under massive debt the debt market is increasingly not touching without insane rates. Do you want more? That's really the difference. March was essentially the "too early" correction to everything that has finally happened.

Harp-Note

Thank you 🩷 Either that, or selling calls seems to be the go-to strategy. META and MSFT proved that even "good" results fade and kill calls anyway.

My_2cents_

Yes, I am retired and have everything in NASDAQ (+ Mag7 individual stocks like AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, etc), it's always outperformed S&P since I've been in it (2005), although it is slightly more volatile (which is normal, you can't get higher high's without lower lows). In addition to several $M in QQQ (NASDAQ) I moved a $1M to QQQi which pays monthly dividends (around 14% per year) which is what I can live on, although QQQi is also NASDAQ it grows slower in exchange for monthly dividends and a slightly (2%) lower downside when the market turn bear because it's using covered calls on the NASDAQ index... either way, the fixed income is perfect for me and the rest continues to grow at a good clip for the last 20 years. S&P is a dog IMHO.

asiansensation78

During a gold rush, sell shovels. During an AI race, sell cloud computing services. Parts of MSFT's business can be dumpster fires (looking at you xbox) but Azure is a money printer.

mattas

MSFT says fuck your correction and pick better stocks next time

aemus001

K, fuck MSFT then, laykng off 60000 csn onky get you so far

earthsprogression

Hey guys is MSFT laptop any good? My friends have AAPL but I'm not sure how reliable it is based on their Q2 earnings report.

Aggressive-Ad-2707

MSFT to other tech stocks - well well how the turned table have turnt..

cloutgoggle

people said the same shit at MSFT 350-380 range & I loaded up i think goog is one of the same

Spac55

$GOOG $AMZN $META $MSFT. too many emotional jokers playing Algo game. Time to load for big year end rally, earnings not bad

tomis_24

MSFT is down for the heck of it. It doesn't want to be alone.

SockeyeSTI

Wut It’d be like 13,xxx shares and 7.2mil without drip. You are taking the corrected share price and then splitting it again when in fact, the actual price range was \~$70-$120 back then. Also a relative put a similar amount in MSFT back in ‘89 and still holds today and the figures align up with my math.

Tis_But_A_Scratch___

Gemini says Google uses 75%-85% of their total compute capacity is run on their TPUs while the remainder is NVIDIA to satisfy Google Cloud customers who rely on the NVIDIA ecosystem. So this is actually crazy how much a leg up in making their buildout and investments go further than MSFT, META or Microsoft who rely on the Semis.

RobotPimpLibertyBell

Not Apple and MSFT or even AMD

Lazy-Lifeguard-6967

The math assumes you actually hold it and dont sell when the P/E ratio hits 60 or when Windows 8 flops. Most people who "invested" in MSFT back then cashed out years ago to buy a Lambo, missing the real compounding window entirely

dankroll69

Competes in is meaningless. Apple has a moat with an monopoly on phone IOS. MSFT has a moat on windows OS. Email and maps Google is the best but it is very hard to monetize without destroying your market share. The only moat is in search and that's what the business should be valued for.

Vcize

Y'all remember when MSFT dropped under $400? Fun times. I wonder if we will get an opportunity like that again...

gamblingPharmaStocks

MSFT gets rewarded by going down 1% instead of 13%. No prisoners. This market is hunting big tech down until the streets are red with their blood.

Ok_Cry7572

every Magnificent 7 dropped the day after their earnings. $MSFT Red $TSLA Red $META Red $GOOGL Red $AMZN (tomorrow) Red $AAPL reports on Monday Nov 2nd $NVDA reports Nov 17th Will Apple break the trend or continue the trend?

Immediate_Code_9272

that's for sure. Bought in late last week, we had good fed, we had good MSFT, I thought 'all I need now is for Google not to completely fuck this up' ...

vermilli21

So MSFT did indeed pull a META earnings 🤡

anymanblue92

I think Elon’s comments triggered this. The market is realizing that trillions of dollars have been “invested” in order to generate futures revenues that will most likely never materialize. “Hyper-scalers” (LOL) taking on debt to finance AI expansion is not a good sign. MSFT offering packages to 1/3 of its staff in order to avoid taking on more debt to finance AI expansion is also not a good sign. So much money has been thrown at this and it’s now dead money. The market is finally waking up.

aemus001

Yes, MSFT doesnt give a fuck about ad spend

Kantmzk

I went in big on MSFT and bought 343 shares at 410. It continued to go down as low as 350 usd/share before smashing an earnings report and since going up significantly. I imagine the same scenario will happen to GOOGL. Most of all, I look at PEG/PEGY ratios, FCF, EPS, and various other ratios and buy based on what is cheapest. MSFT fit the bill earlier this year. As of now, GOOGL is getting there but I actually want to see it sink more before I consider it a worthwhile buy. There is definitely a case to be made it is better to say screw GOOGL and buy AVGO, LLY, ABBV, and plenty of other companies as well. Victoria Secret has done much better, as wel**l**, and I can say anecdotally I see that Victoria Secret Pink clothing all over nowadays.

prana_fish

Companies like $MSFT beat on objectively great earnings and has it's rip sold off HARD the following day. Market is telling you to step off the hetero bull pedal. Can't blame war, interest rates, FOMC, or any other macro bullshit.

Dense-Station-1239

I just get obsessed with trying to predict certain tickers for extended periods of time. It all started with the UNH landslide. Right now Im on MSFT. I have MSFT puts and Im bearish on the entire market. Its gonna be a fucking bloodbath tomorrow and watch me not make any money because MSFT will stay at a cool 521 or some stupid shit

Legitimate_Cable_811

Imma need MSFT to report earnings again

Zealousideal_Book_40

Well you are the one who is delusional. Companies maximise share price by investing back into business. Amzn and Google's prime business brought them lower earnings than expected, their cloud growth exploded - all the more reason to continue investing into clouds as their previous business model is not possible to scale much higher. On the other hand you have also MSFT, SPCX who not only have great business but also insane cloud growth. All the hyperscalers results point to one conclusion - data center business is booming

internetsoci0path

MSFT staying strong. My cock is so hard rn

internetsoci0path

and the Koreans love MSFT

BarbellPadawan

MSFT more credit worthy than the US government!

option-trader

What? Are you just pulling out stocks. Have you seen the pattern? The hyperscalers (GOOG, AMZN, META, and MSFT) have taken a hit because of their AI buildout. What do you think happens if they stopped building their AI infrastructure? It will create the AI meltdown you are talking about.  Now think hard about this. That also means they won’t have any capex anymore. That’s $51B not spent per quarter. That means they’ll have more cash, which means their market cap will not drop like the rest of the AI related stocks. They are practically the banks for all the other AI stocks like MU, AMD, DELL, etc. If you look at the last 12 months, the AI related stocks have mooned while these hyperscalers have done almost nothing. That’s because they are paying a premium to these smaller companies. Hence, the inverse relationship in their stocks.

arkham1010

To get into the weeds a bit, the S&P 500 uses a cap weight rather than equal weight. That is, the more the market cap a company has, the larger percentage it is within the S&P 500. Here is the top ten, as of May from this Investopedia article: * Nvidia (NVDA) 8.59% * Apple (AAPL) 6.87% * Microsoft (MSFT) 4.71% * [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN) 4.13% * Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) 3.67% * Broadcom (AVGO) 3.09% * Alphabet Class C (GOOGL) 2.92% * Meta Platforms Class A (META) 2.11% * Tesla (TSLA) 1.96% * Micron Technology (MU) 1.42% 1, they are ALL tech. 2, notice that google is included twice. So google exposure is actually closer to 7 percent. (wat?!?) 3) Add those percentages up, and thats 40 percent of the S&P 500 there alone. There are 490 other companies (ok, a bit more or less, its not EXACTLY 500 companies) that comprise the other 60%. Do we see a problem with this situation? Worse, people sometimes like to 'diversify' by buing S&P 500 funds, total market funds and other large cap funds. But if you look what those funds hold and what percentages they are, you'll see there is a lot of overlap. Even some midcap funds buy megacap stocks to goose their returns a bit. Be safe out there, do your research, know what you are buying.

obb223

Nebius and coreweave have major customers including MSFT and meta

itsalwayscalls

If you listened to AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, SPCX investors calls you'll buy more of any cloud with actual scale and spot pricing access (NBIS and MAG7)

DaddyDays

there's some thiccies at MSFT bro, just not in engineering 😂

internetsoci0path

MSFT 580!!!!

internetsoci0path

X saying that MSFT has topped… calls for next week undoubtedly

haze_from_deadlock

There’s still plenty of time to buy puts on MSFT before it revisits $370

EdoTensei10

so basically all the mag 7 that reported so far have missed huh? Except MSFT?

misterkhanna

TLDR : Google crash is a buying Opportunity. AI or not, I think Google is that one company which genuinely competes in almost all tech domains - 1. Cloud : Competes with AWS, Azure 2. Phone: Competes with Apple 3. Maps: Monopoly 4. Search: Monopoly (even with AI onslaught, people still rely on basic search and probably your Home Page on "Chrome" is also Google) 5. Browser: 50:50 split with Edge 6. Email: Almost a monopoly 7. Cloud Storage: 50:50 split with MSFT 8. Office Suite: Again competes with MSFT If you think about it , Google is the only player capable of taking on MSFT in more domains than possible while also competing with Apple and Amazon in their other domains. Not to forget, Google is yet to monetize a lot of their monopolistic products - imagine if they monetize Google Maps for retail users. On top of this , they have Gemini and their own chips production now and are probably the most promising out of all companies out there in Quantum Computing which could be a bigger disruption than even AI.

Burtonwurton

It seems institutions don't give a fuck...sell off regardless. Even with MSFT, up 7% AH yesterday and now red. Nothing matters, these fucks will sell.

IG_Triple_OG

I remember mfs saying this: $400 - MSFT is free money $350 - MSFT is free money <--- You are here $300 -MSFT is free money

WailingWarbler

you know it bad when MSFT is the only one making money, rip

ExpletiveWork

META did a MSFT too due to dilution the next day

internetsoci0path

major cum explosion with MSFT coming soon

Individual-Round2767

Guess what even MSFT is down after those exceptional earnings. Toddlers are in the market

internetsoci0path

MSFT & HOOD will be so green next week. i’m thinking +10 for boffem

sinag19

Dude I might MSFT again tomorrow hopefully this time I exit with a profit this time lmao

WSB-mods-are-

That MSFT daily chart is disgusting RIP anyone that played options on that

Wide-Contribution-29

Maybe just time to full port MSFT Got fucked on AAPL earnings last quarter 

FartPolluter

Noone will change your mind. PEG ratio, growth and PE suggest underpriced relative to market. If MSFT was priced the same it would be sub 400

greyenlightenment

MSFT i guess immune to SAAS meltdown no way to vibe code windows and office and servers