Reddit Posts
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT hits positive net gamma exposure right now
I’m rotating around 80% of my MSFT position into META. Here’s my reasoning.
Ban bet Nintendo stock to $16 by EOY and if it hits $16 I’ll donate some switch 2s to children Hospitals
Where would you put surprise inheritance money
Big Tech's Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are distorting the corporate earnings picture
four green days, one red, and the red one is the only one i learned anything from
FOLLOW UP POST - Full Port Microsoft - Undervalued !!! 🚀📈
Mentions
Sorry guys NOOb here but if i buy MSFT at theexact open of the market could i still catch an upswing? of should I have boughten it last night or now
I haven't been too impressed with the included version, but we are a MSFT shop, so if it's better than a third-party, I'd be curious to test it. We kinda got the way we got because we all had our own personal favorites and then just merged them into company accounts. What does it do better than the others connected to all the MSFT MCP servers?
“They have no moat” Except MSFT is a huge shareholder (27% ownership) and is the undisputed king of enterprise integration. But yeah other than that…
MSFT to $550 tomorrow 👀
Nah meta to $1000 and MSFT to $700. Not cashing out yet
MSFT and meta dips 🤌🏻🇺🇸🦅
doesn't this mean MSFT calls tomo?
MSFT and meta the best performing mag 7 in the last 3 months and Redditors will still call them trash lmao 🤌🏻🇺🇸🦅
Up 40% in 3 months but yeah you right trash lmao. Up $45k in MSFT
Imagine not buying META and MSFT because of morals lmao 🤌🏻🇺🇸🦅
Convinced no one on here knows how to actually trade. They sell MSFT at $350 and buy SNDK at $2300 and blame it on the president lmao
I’m seriously considering full porting MSFT calls. The company I work for is getting absolutely ripped off by Github Copilot. It’s thousands of dollars for what a $20 Claude sub could do. And I’m telling them we need to use other tools but they are like addicted to the MSFT ecosystem. The only thing holding me back is how much of this is priced in…
Dude, if you are in FAANG then you know that desktop apps died in the early 2010s. Single player video games are the only remaining desktop “apps” that are still have any market value, and those have been steadily declining in revenue too. When Microsoft has been releasing their desktop apps as open source, and all the big games of the last 10 years are free to play, you know there is no avenue to sell local apps anymore. The entire industry moved into SaaS a long time ago to address that. SaaSpocalypse fears were real because that’s the current paradigm. Now your thesis on GOOG is valid, but it’s also valid for AWS, MSFT, CloudFlare or any platform provider (hell even AAPL to some extent). The more software people use, the more platform providers make money. All those clones will need platform services from storage, network, compute or even just distribution. GOOG isn’t even necessarily a leader in any of that, but it’s there. If that’s your thesis, then you should also consider other platform providers I mentioned as well as semis. Which everyone is already considering hence their insane valuations.
Hey fun fact MSFT is over 400 now
Could be MSFT, GOOG, other software companies. Or new companies emerge. There is an incredible demand for AI, the pricing is the issue. But token prices will go down as compute + technological developments scale.
MSFT is cutting usage of claude in favor of github and internal models and so is META. OpenAI is partnered with MSFT that has enterprise software embedded in every major company. This is where efficency gains are made at the productivity level inside of MSFT's moat: Teams, codex and copilot, outlook, 365, etc. Its actually more sticky than ORCL's database moat. Outlook is mission critical. Once Agentic AI becomes mainstream, the playing field will change once again. MSFT is becoming the umbrella where you can find every major frontier model built into their cloud offerings. Claude and OpenAI are frontier AI model companies and thats their moat and they will take turns being the pinnacle of frontier AI. Claude made some massive gains this year, as did googl with gemini3 but has since fallen off. If anyone is going to be the Yahoo of AI, my bet is on the maker behind the Kimi K3 model developed by Chinese startup Moonshot AI and released in July 2026, but i dont think will happen either. AI is the next industrial revolution. dotcom bubble happened so im not ruling out a black swan style event but the internet was still a game changer.
MSFT made a deal with Three Mile Island, clsoe enough
Shit. $20B in revenue is even insane for OpenAi last year it was what $6 billion? SPCX revenue is around $23B for 2026 and they have to spend it on rockets. In comparison MSFT revenue is $314 billion? And they have been around for how long? So going from $6B to $20B in a year is huge. Going from $6B to $50B would make OpenAI the fastest growth company in ever. Do I have all that right?
Oh, so the 70B number includes the money that MSFT takes as part of profit sharing. 50B doesn't. Seems fine.
What a day, even MSFT is red. I'm just glad to be exit liquidity for the powers that be before the midterms 🫡
The fuck? Google owns very little of the AI infrastructure compared to AWS or Azure. If anything, if this is “more people will use more AI in the cloud,” it’s either an Amazon or MSFT play.
Hearing Meta,MSFT and the sort shun Anthropic and OpenAI for thier own tools just makes it seem that we have one more euphoric pump after anthropic and Open Ai IPO
MSFT already has a 27% stake in OpenAI, so yes, this seems a likely outcome.
had a good day today, missed Vance hitting MSFT and Adobe in the teeth
Actually it's not, puts on MSFT AI search 😭😭
This is from 6 years ago. I'm talking about the present. """Microsoft only files H-1B petitions for those who meet the rigorous standards of this visa category..We pay our H-1B employees the same as any other employees doing comparable work." So I guess MSFT is also lying in their official statement?
Now this is the word. Even in MSFT when I was there it was dreadful to watch the amount of managers all from India in different countries working for MSFT. Total takeover, from what I read here it's the same thing over at other big companies... Horrifying.
Like what? all the options I'm aware of are needlessly complicated with very little ROI especially if I fuck them up. I had a somewhat similar position in MSFT that I exited last year and ended up paying $60k in taxes. I do wish I made more trades in my tax deferred accounts, but I only keep index funds there.
My entire professional network works in these kind of firms. From firm's perspective, they have to protect their interests by keeping experienced resources and if they can't stay in US - send them to offshore offices, and save money on salary. Satya was planned to meet meet DT just after this announcement. I assume MSFT is not supposed to be on the punish list.
Had my fill order for MSFT hit the exact amount I had and it filled someone else instead and I feel robbed
So companies like MSFT layoff average workers and replace them with foreign workers. Crazy that this has been happening for years
Just waiting for MSFT to close that gap so I can get 1DTE MU calls
Everything I sold covered calls on to get theta is pumping (RDDT PLTR) and everything I did not sell calls on (SNDK, MSFT) is dumping. 🔥 😢 Follow me for amazing investment advice fellow ~~retards~~ investors!
H-1b crackdowns apparently, MSFT and Adobe in shambles
MSFT if you could just shit your pants a little more that'd be great
Feel like MSFT should be getting slaughtered rn but its not
I just got the stupidest idea, MSFT 500P 1DTE, biggest investor in OpenAi, and it has just become a huge financial risk
MSFT cut off from H1-B visa program because of fraud
My theory: Eventually the growth will normalize. Everything associated with AI will suddenly drop. But money will flow back to those who are executing well, and generating real revenue from the AI. To me, that's going to be the quality companies like MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN with lots of money and durable moats. And importantly they immediate become cash flow positive if they slow spending. The companies relying on that spend will have a more difficult time to recover.
No move after MSFT getting its H1B visas cut?
When SP500 and NAS100 are ripping at 17-25% yearly returns in past few years, the 5-5.60% yields don't seem all that attractive. I'd be concerned if overall earnings growth wasn't there; but opposite is true. You're going to see a lot of commentary that many members of SP500 index are not doing so well, and it's just a small minority rising the tide and lifting all boats. While this is true, I'm not concerned by it. When you have NVDA not only going to be breaking $200b in net income, and your AAPL MSFT GOOGL going to $100-150b+, but also growing, it really negates the laggards. When you buy the stock market index, or individual stocks, you aren't buying the broad economy. You are buying the best of the best companies or company. These are the like the 0.5%'s of companies - their outlook can be drastically different than Main Street Bob and Sue. A 1% income earner could only be struggling today if they make poor financial choices, not because they are being squeezed to a breaking point by inflation.
Should’ve kept my MSFT puts yesterday.
They MUST justify their spending. Which means they absolutely will MSFT is making big bucks from Copilot seats and credits. That is going to be the catalyst for the next run
ALLLLLL that BULLSHIT just for $MSFT to be up 1.5% from a year ago
Out of all the stocks I could've bought pits on, I ended up doing MSFT :screech:
MSFT and APPL sure love the good news floating around
#Tech funds: We have a sophisticated proprietary investment strategy to identify tech stocks” #Their Portfolio: NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, AVGO, AMD #LMAO🤌
For NVDA sure. From some companies though, your cost basis if a trap that'll bite you in the ass when the stock comes full circle and never goes back up. But there's fsr worse investments you could make than NVDA, which is probably the 21st centuries MSFT or AAPL, both of which went up for like 2 decades straight
Rotate into them before earnings makes sense. I just need to figure out what mag 7 is best pick. MSFT is a good pick but already ran up a lot.
Why MSFT? They don’t even have their own model. They don’t own OpenAi
Well wouldn't you use your own models and not contribute margin to anyone else? Good for them. I'd use my own model and compute too. META and MSFT just got a little more profitable.
FTNT 17% MSFT 13% Amazon 13% GOOG 13% V 12% WM 10% SPGI 10% NOVO 6% Dexcom 6% Don’t do ETFs as not tax efficient in my country. Long term 10-20 year horizon here. Considering adding Hermes, Nvidia, Intuitative Surgical , Costco over next 12 months. Want 12-15 stocks ideally
MSFT will be 665 next year.
Getting bent over the counter and on all fours AAPL, MSFT and AMZN calls and puts 0dte. You can clearly see when it didn't work out lol
Hey cuntilevers, what about my boy MSFT, they even brought Daddy Wang
Yeah, I'm aware of the core philosophy of the product, this doesnt explain why NVIDIA, Apple, MSFT, Google (etc...), have such a similar weight and placement on the portfolio. To put it shortly, its more concentrated on US tech than I'd expect from an all cap product.
God bless the scuff during the MSFT event.<3
Jensen about to talk at MSFT event
MSFT is the only company in the world
how the fuck does MSFT think openclaw is still relevant
I'll be charitable to MSFT and say at least their keynotes are still live unlike AAPL.
is MSFT just all indians now lmao
anyone else watching this MSFT event wonder how competitive the new hardware will be
Fine, then why does KO has the same forward PE as MSFT, which with less debt grows considerably faster and generates higher operating income?
like MSFT listens to its customers lol.
I've been holding for 10 years and it's been a wild ride from the pandemic boom, to the inflation crash and the return to highs. I'm still happy to hold it as long as the growth is still there (30%+ top line). But if I'm being honest, I'd be taking more off the table if it weren't in taxable, though definitely not selling out. It's more of weight got too high and not wanting that much single stock risk. In same vein, NVDA weight got too high long ago, but I held higher conviction on it, and only recently started selling small bits and pieces; though this is in retirement accounts. SHOP is always going to cater to smaller businesses who need to rely on social media to get their name and product out there. Or those smaller businesses can choose to go on a platform like AMZN or EBAY for more eyes. In reality, many do both. I have more confidence in long term sustainability of big business feeding big business. For example, I'm heavily invested in hyperscalers MSFT AMZN GOOGL because they will always serve the biggest and most successful companies. But if a SHOP customer gets too big, they are most certainly building their own site to cut the middle person out.
This time last year I was like, yah know... I should move some money into MSFT. Seems like an easy win fucking lol
$GOOG is the new $MSFT everyone gonna be pissed when it jumps $100 out of nowhere
MSFT call for OCT 9 babbyyyyy
MSFT, they own mojang and u know what a shit company they are
I'm kind of over leveraged on MSFT. Decided a few months ago that once it was going above 525, I was going to look for an exit. I don't mind if they get assigned next week, but if the price craters later this week from profit taking, I may consider closing them if the profit is nice enough. I'm not losing sleep over it. This bubble may pop sooner than later and even if it doesn't, I'm not sure how much upside is left in the mag 7.
you hit on the passive inflow; but the real kicker is the ETF options that trade on those cap-weighted funds. a sudden pull on Apple or MSFT skews the SPX option gamma and can drag the whole index. so an AI retreat can still knock the market into a sharp slide even if the underlying non-AI section is less affected.
It is basically a mix of private equity, strategic investment, debt and whatever revenue the lab can produce, but the uncomfortable part is how long the capital intensity stays this high. Training does not stop just because one model is good. I watch the public proxies on Moon like NVDA, MSFT and the data center names, but their charts obviously cannot tell you whether the private lab economics actually work.
I know MSFT better than I know my own children
NFLX became MSFT from couple of months ago. Everything down NFLX up
Sold everything (except MSFT because it's free money) and went cash gang, good luck today everyone else!
MSFT has their event today. 550 by next friday
People talking about going out of MU and in to AMD, seems like the top is in for AMD. I’m all in on puts today for MSFT and AVGO. No risk no fun, they ran to hard lately. MSFT is going to get whooped by OpenAi sooner or later. Money gone and cloud revenue correction.
I had this issue until I looked at the EPS compared to a MSFT or Google.
MSFT event tomorrow surely it’ll pump like MRVL did today :derp:
I feel vindicated for holding onto MSFT and NVDA this year while everyone was huffing and puffing about “bag7”. Losers
I'm selling CCs on my MSFT shares right now. I've got a ton from when I worked there and with them sniffing ATHs, I figured it was time. Of course I sold 530 calls for next Friday, so this will probably be the only time I sell covered calls. lol. Was hoping to be able to do that for a couple months at least. But I won't be complaining about a 6 figure check with a 6 figure gain attached. You're welcome MSFT bulls.
I’m optimistic that earnings this month will generate another spike, getting MSFT closer to 600 by years end. I can stomach a 10-15% haircut in the short term, but I’m way too bitchmade to let half my capital rip and hope it comes back to breakeven.
MSFT is gonna get slaughtered now that I’ve bought leaps right?
I think we are cooked bros, they are already dumping ahead of the NVDA/MSFT Conference tomorrow, as soon as Jensen comes on we are going to get rugged
tomorrow TSLA 360 MSFT 505 AAPL 325 WDC 450 SKHY 170 will cash out and delete my app if this happens :)
#Tech funds: We have a sophisticated proprietary investment strategy to identify tech stocks” #Their Portfolio: NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, AVGO, AMD #LMAO🤌
MSFT will probably dip right? Right?
Just buy Google's enemies stock MSFT and AAPL
Your datapoint is not accurate, it's down 20% from all time highs, not on the year. For instance a dog like KHC is probably near decade from its all time high, but not down 20% for the year. However cumulative earnings and revenue is rising. The reality is you have companines like NVDA MSFT GOOGL AAPL that have net income of over $100b/year with NVDA cracking $200b/year soon. Won't be long before AMZN joins that $100b. Not only are the numbers huge, they are growing. How many of the bottom SP500 would you need to account for to touch $100b, $200b, $500b of net income? That is why the weight of the index is skewed, because so are the profits. When a compnay has $30-50b of net income in the quarter and growing that at just 10%, that delta alone is more than what many of the bottom SP500 companies make in just revenue, nevermind profit.
Up 37% on my MSFT and the pump is finally happening it seems
MSFT 540 and SPX 7850 and I’ll be done for the day, then it can do whatever
Multiple times in the past months I was about to sell calls on my MSFT positions. Everytime I wouldve gotten rekt hard. The one time I bought a call it was a major win. Unfortunately I was a pussy and only bought 1 instead of 10. Couldve made 70-80k