Reddit Posts
All BS aside, how’s calls on MSFT looking this week?
Me going into earnings week with $5000 in SMCI, MSFT, & AMD calls
Need to practice option trading with paper money
Who’s ready to burn their life savings this week
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
This is a small dumb little thing but it's HUGE in its Implications - Google Puts Chrome On Windows ARM - Effectively Seeding Chromebooks
Who’s buying MSFT & AMD calls for earnings?
I took too long to move my MSFT stocks and now I don't know if I should wait after the weekend to buy.
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia's Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses 🚀
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia’s Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses
Wall Street Newsletter S03E06: All-time highs are here. What's next?
Poor Man’s Covered Call What it is, why I’m doing it with $30k worth of MSFT calls , and why you should consider trying it. TLDR at TOP
MSFT has now overtaken AAPL in market cap.
Some predictions for Microsoft, Palantir, AMD, Amazon, Spotify and Tesla.
Is it normal for the index funds to be weighted this heavily by mega caps?
What are your top picks for the top performance stocks for this year?
Epic V Continues to Show How Little Risk Exists
Has anyone seriously looked at Global Foundries [$GFS]
$CBDW News 1606 Corp. CEO Attends Consumer Electronics Show (CES) For Collaboration Meetings
$MSFT has potentially created a "new battery" with AI - Musk / $TSLA Says Interesting
Top 10 S&P 500 companies by market cap weighting since 1980. MSFT is the reining champ for persistence.
The true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
A true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
Lumen $LUMN Insider & Big Boys Buying Spree Post Dividend Halt, Kate Johnson & Co. Personally Buying the Dip
LUMEN $LUMN INSIDER & BIG BOYS BUYING SPREE POST DIVI HALT, KATE JOHNSON & CO. BACK THE DIP HARD!
And the AI Show Goes On - GPT 4.5 Turbo Leaks - $MSFT - Its Real And Available -https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai
Taiwan Semi (TSMC) will be 'back to strong growth in 2024' - JPMorgan (holding small position)
Potential for massive shorts/puts tmrw (Jan 4th) after the release of the Epstein List (likely today after market close, Jan 3rd)?
If Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s list is this a great put buying opportunity for MSFT?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on the Jeffrey Epstein Client List sound like a bad idea?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s client list sound like a bad idea?
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if Buffet needs a new #2.
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if buffet needs a new #2.
How would you spend $1500 if you regularly forget stocks exist for months at a time? How do you decide which stocks are to be held and which losses cut?
Keep an eye on $MSFT (potential put money making opportunity)
If you had $40k to invest right now, what would you do with it?
The NYTs is suing Microsoft and I think there is a profitability play on their stocks
New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
Do you ever buy stocks outside of the indexes and Mag 7 near all time highs?
Question regarding this type of Play Option?
The biggest lesson that I've learned in my 10 year investing career.
MSFTs Open Ai will raise funds with valuation of $100B
Mentions
Redditors and understanding how businesses work is always funny. MSFT is famously excellent at cash flow management and efficiency. You're saying they hire tends of thousands of people making $200-600k just for no reason at all?
Yeah to me that's like the elephant in the room that I keep not seeing in these threads. Overall MSFT is a great business, but it's the Cloud that is driving everything.
AAA rating, which is the other company besides MSFT?
The 45% backlog is indeed an issue. MSFT also owns a nice chunk of OpenAI, so if people now are having second thoughts about OpenAI it impacts the value of MSFT ownership.
Just a year ago everyone was bearish on GOOGL. I loaded up big time. I'm happy camper. Same scenario now. MSFT is not going anywhere. The current issue with MSFT is that management is spending a boatload of money. Once they stop spending that much, watch the stock go back up like crazy. Let's talk in 1 year.
I hold some software stock so I decided to check their credit ratings. Might be true in general that software companies in general have lower credit ratings, but it seems like the reputable ones are investment grade. *Disclaimer: I know basically nothing about credit ratings and this comment is probably categorically incorrect* ADBE has investment grade bonds: https://public.com/bonds/corporate/adobe-inc/adbe-5.3-01-17-2035-00724pak5 NOW is investment grade: https://public.com/bonds/corporate/servicenow-inc/now-1.4-09-01-2030-81762pae2?wpsrc=Organic+Search&wpsn=www.google.com MSFT is rated AAA, the highest possible rating, one of only two companies in the entire US with this high of rating: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/faq
You know MSFT has already begun using ai to grow operating margins significantly right ?
I’m bullish on MSFT, but fyi the stock market punishes the overly-confident
MSFT is highly incentivized to say things like this
In the past, MSFT charged 30/user/month. So you know how much Vercel charges for a popular AI app burning tokens like paper? Let's say 300-3000/mo. Great programmers now burn $100,000 in tokens per MONTH! That's Microsoft's opportunity and the only ones in the same race are Google, Amazon, and possibly Meta and Musk (Tesla/SpaceX/X.ai). The vision of 2030 is for companies having 10-30% of the employees (so the 30/mo is going down) and replaced by huge token bills in the thousands per month per employee.
Markets are going to drop 60-70% if we see a significant drop off in white collar work. The societal unrest would be very bad. We’re not ready for this if they ends up happening. I don’t think what this clown at MSFT is saying is going to come true though anyway. It seems like he’s trying to pump the AI story since that’s not working out well for MSFT lately.
As a SWE, both AMZN and MSFT currently have terrible leadership, fired a lot of OG SWEs with domain knowledge, and hedging on AI to replace their productivity when AI is nowhere near. Long term, the quality of their product will continue to suffer resulting in lower customer trust. This combined with the giant CapEx spending for more AI makes it a bubble. There’s already a shift from Office365 and WindowsOS to alternatives. This is what killed Intel, as AMD dominated the market, they let their 4-5 years of advantage rot away and lost the market to competitor. TL;DR sacrificing everything that works today to bet on AI future.
I build datacenters for a living and I bought MSFT after seeing how much new inventory they were building. I was convinced that no one was better positioned than Azure to dominate the AI infrastructure space. However, after learning HOW MSFT builds datacenters, I have a lot less faith in them. I’d love to see their balance sheets and credit commitments to utilities because the LOCs and bonds they post in some of the most congested energy corridors had to have been enormous. They posted credit to upgrade transmission lines as opposed to just locating where energy was readily available. And this is not isolated. It’s systemic. Lower cost locations will be found and utilized, leaving MSFT with inflated pricing because they didn’t locate wisely.
1) the will smith example is a perfect reason why MSFT is dead. Other companies are breaking new boundaries in new technology while Microsoft doesn’t 2) OpenAI have more directly paying users (more than double) than co pilot. Let’s say i agree with you and Microsoft is the only company that can scale like Google. Why are they are 15M copilot paid users and OpenAI, a startup, at 35M It doesn’t matter how big Microsoft is, and how far reaching. OpenAI got the big wave of users when they were considered the best. Any new company can create a breakthrough in better LLMs and almost overnight they will have everyone beat There are enough megacap clouds and neoclouds to support anyone to scale to any size as long as the users want their product Users **do not** want Microsoft’s product
I can tell you all that lending is definitely going to mostly go to AI and mag companies will benefit. That's the beauty of unbelievably powerful companies like MSFT and GOOGL. They get the biggest slice of the growth pie.
MSFT is predicted to have a large upside this year with 40-50% gains. I’ve not seen an analyst yet that has said it’s a sell stock. All say buy, buy, buy. Reddit only talks about Meme stocks because it’s where companies go to pump stocks to either increase their own companies value or their portfolio value. This is not investment advice but just something I’ve noticed.
100% his job is to juice $MSFT stock price and AI adoption. Period
Broad Incompetence is why. Gaming arm blew all that money acquiring multiple AAA studios with next to no plan executed, and watched the value of them vanish. Xbox console has basically just given up even trying at this point, just turned up the gamepass price to absurd levels and removing games from said bought studios (which was a key reason in acquiring them in the first place); turning a market dominating product into a ‘questionable at best’ one. Windows 11 update is actually regressing because of the bloat and damage they’re actively doing to it, users have had enough. Their quantum hobby project is going nowhere, IVAS went nowhere (somehow they managed to get some money back on that, which was honestly surprising). Complete fumbling of co-pilot after pulling off a crystal ball deal with openAI, only to let all the first mover advantage pour all over the floor. MSFT had a broad profile of meandering and directionless products with its only shining light being Azure, but it remains to be seen how well it’s performing if it’s almost entirely due to OpenAI partnership or not. Then there’s Satya trying desperately (and it LOOKS desperate) trying to drum up support for Ai data centers. “*i solemnly swear to pay taxes*” was a good bit, making people ask “were they not already?”… MSFT is a real odd ball, as they have all the tools and market position to push on from here but somehow each division has no idea what they’re doing other than just jacking up prices to pad the books. There’s definitely a leadership culture crisis there if this continues. They’ll still be very profitable, but won’t be growing like everyone will be.
Why wouldn't hyperbaggers benefit? MSFT just delivered 60% YoY growth?
More bearish people are the better discount we can get. MSFT has Windows OS, for clients, for servers. They have Azure as well. It's enough to have dominant position cause big companies relate heavily on it and no Macbook ecosystem is not better than Microsoft. Office, Edge, Sharepoint, Onedrive, Teams, other tools. They are wery well integrated and it's hard to replace it.
Because people are afraid of their reliance on OpenAI. About 45% of all free cash flow last quarter was attributed to OpenAI. The FCF number also includes backlog. So MSFT has not actually been paid all of this money yet. So that is insane that a $2 trillion company has almost half its FCF coming from a single source. And OpenAI has a lot of commitments to a lot of other compute providers, but it is unclear if they can actually follow through on all of these commitments.
I believe he means buing Large Cap and Mega Cap Tech has worked out in the long run. Paul Pelosi buys ITM Leaps in AMZN, GOOG, & MSFT and retail acts shocked when they return a profit. These companies beat over 75% of their Earnings reports so it's not a stretch to say line go up.
They offer sub-par to absolute garbage products with a few exceptions. I have met engineers that have worked on different products there and they have all said that they all know it’s garbage. It’s actually ridiculous that their customers put up with it but everyone in IT is just trying to not get fired and they can choose MSFT and still be safe when it doesn’t work well.
+1 in the example mentioned in the post - Will Smith eating pasta, yes, we see clear progress, but MSFT has just been on the sidelines and their models so far are just copy cat me-toos, rather than coming out first in innovation. As for cloud services too, they started to pump money into it only after AWS pioneered it first. It's a company run on government and dinosaur corporate contracts, and will always lag behind GOOG, AMZN and META
In general because of the insane amounts of money they are spending in the AI race. I'm long on MAG7, this MSFT dip should be considered a tremendous buying opportunity
I am not bullish on software companies as an investor. Very few people realize it took from 2000 to 2016 or 16 years of patient waiting to get to a point of POSITIVE GAIN not stagnant. You look at Adobe. It tried to get into cloud storage and right now I am not sure why it tanked so much. Software companies does not make anything. Hardware chip, server, cloud services I can understand. I own MSFT from 2 accounts. Cost basis was $46 from a larger balance. The other account cost basis is $346 much smaller. I will not be surprised it will be under water from #2.
MSFT has a strong balance sheet and is trading well under its FMV. I have it $550-$600. This is what I look for - strong fundamentals on companies that are trading well below their FMV. I have multiple short put positions open on this stock.
I'm just perplexed as to why MSFT still doesn't have ChatGPT integrated into Excel when they own 25% of OpenAI and allow Anthropic to just swoop in and fill in that massive gap.
MSFT right at the 200 MA. How low will it go
Doubt. A lot of white collar tasks are repetitive and structured, but there are sooooo many non-standard edge cases that crop up and AI won't know how to handle them because each one is too rare to train them for. Large parts of people's jobs could be automated but you'll either need to train people a lot and give them time/incentive to actually learn to prompt and build agents etc or else hire expensive consultants to come and do it for them and then keep coming back to refine them. I worked with accounting and finance departments my whole IT career. What could be more structured than that? But so much of my job ended up figuring out how something went wrong when it shouldn't have or helping people to handle unique situations the software normally could not handle. A trap that analytical people (which includes most IT people) fall into is thinking that other people are also analytical and can figure things out. After decades of working with other people let me tell you: a LOT of workers are shockingly lacking in analytic ability. This MSFT AI CEO I suspect is falling into that trap.
NFLX, PIN, some chinese company, MSFT the thing is I dont really trust metrics and feel like this is just to get my attention and begin looking into them from a value investing perspective.
yes, there’s a series of benchmarks being performed. for instance, multi-SWE-bench tests how a model performs on various software engineering tasks. there are benchmarks that specifically measure scientific reasoning and incidence of hallucination obviously benchmarks can be optimized for and aren’t as important as real results but the thing MSFT doesn’t want you to hear about is the chinese labs putting out models that perform 80% as well for 5% the cost and releasing them with open weights. and 80% is me being conservative, GLM-5 has the highest score ever recorded on some benchmarks
Correct. Not a coincidence bitcoin stopped falling at 70k, ETH at 2k, Tesla at $400, QQQ at $600, MSFT at $400 etc. Everything bounced at their perfect supports
What works for Elon surely would work for MSFT?
Sounds like MSFT will be worth a lot less then considering their entire business depends on white collar workers using Office products.
Nothing new, when you get to C-suite, you’re often disconnected from reality. Talking out your ass. I wonder if MSFT will be the first to experience the inevitable “AI gone wrong” that kills a major company. Doubt it, but someone will be dumb enough in a large cap
I think MSFT and Amazon can be good long term.. Rddt possibly too just very volatile up and down quite a lot weekly
First thing is I only trade companies that I understand what they do and how they make the majority of their money. Next, I am a Fidelity customer so I use their resources and check what the analysts recommendations are. If they don’t align with my view I try to see what I am missing. I also use their screener to filter on the major variables that others have listed but am not strict on those unless some negative really stands out. I also read or listen to their earnings calls and have alerts set for any news on their tickers. I picked up AMAT a few months ago and had a good understanding of their business and have done really well with it, wish I had trusted myself enough to hold through earnings overnight. My other tickers that I have done well with here and there are V, GS, KO, MA, MSFT, COST. I try to avoid holding through earnings because I got burnt with Costco - was 100% right on fundamentals but earnings call comments killed it (“…something, something, something, expect tariff headwinds…”)
These type of people and MSFT, keep thinking rebounds are gonna happen any moment. Fuck nuts
Saw the week of the 23rd. Stuff like AAPL, MSFT, META starting do options like SPY. They have Monday, Wed, Friday expirations. Is this going to be the norm moving forward?
I need to buy 1 share. MSFT @ 398, GOOGL @ 304, or APPL @ 254?
MSFT looking ripe after this multiples compression. GOOGL just still looks great overall. LONG both.
About to full port MSFT leaps on Tuesday
Well, it's official... The entire Magnificent 7 is now negative YTD 📉 🔴 Nvidia ( $NVDA ) -1.29% 🔴 Meta ( $META ) -1.64% 🔴 Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) -2.16% 🔴 Apple ( $AAPL ) -4.50% 🔴 Tesla ( $TSLA ) -6.58% 🔴 Amazon ( $AMZN ) -13.24% 🔴 Microsoft ( $MSFT ) -16.75%
I have also lost $10 on my $40 initial investment of MSFT long calls. I'm going to sell and put that $30 on $ROPE 0DTEs if it doesn't hit $800 next week. /s+
MSFT below $400 is 22 times forward earnings. That's a good price. AMZN needs to break below $180 before it's PE is attractive.
MSFT might be the biggest POS of 2026
Crazy how stocks like NFLX and MSFT are getting battered while dogshit stocks like TSLA haven't (relatively speaking if TSLA was to correct like BAG 7 has been, given its volatility it would be in the 300s)
Just picked up some WMT today. I think they have a lot of upside since they are really just now starting to compete with Amazon in the e-commerce space. Plus, since they are more consumer staple than tech, they seem to go up with tech, up with recession fears, and up with “AI is going to take our jobs” fears lol. The 1,2,5, & 10 year charts all look pretty solid with a lot smaller dips than AMZN and MSFT. Now watch it announce $220 billion in capex in next week’s earnings and crash like Amazon… 🤦♂️
Yeah, thought I was buying a safe call when MSFT was 490 in Dec..
Everything will be fine. Microsoft will buy these locations for a gazillion virtual dollars to set up micro data centers. Put all your life savings into MSFT calls!
MSFT too. They're trying to scare people so they can dump consumer staples and medical soon too. BEen through this now many times? they need a strategy
Google is the better investment over MSFT and AMZN. But between AMZN and MSFT I like MSFT better.
MSFT please release some good news over the weekend to send this rocket up pls
well MSFT should do well at this price, GOOG is too much of a gamble at this point
GOOG & MSFT calls and chill
Checkout my post on MSFT made before the announcement. I'm describing a analytically based, repeatable approach that I find useful in trading options. Just a guess - you do TA right?
MSFT green day wen 🥺 https://preview.redd.it/g1sva2t4mcjg1.jpeg?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a406baa169e10cedef7d82e3a5b4331f1c977519
MSFT $450 calls 04/17 😎
Spy and QQQ up but GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT down makes perfect sense
Even with static PE, companies like MSFT are delivering 60% YoY earnings growth.
time to buy MSFT, RDDT, AMZN????
So that’s it then for MSFT? It peaked at 550 and that’s it? You sound STUPID!
PLTR held up very nice today. QQQ sold off in final hr with MSFT down. PLTR up in session and after hours. Very BULLISH signal the worst is behind us. 255.00 next
I hate the overuse of the word “generational” but MSFT is indeed a generational buying opportunity at 400 & below… if you haven’t loaded up what are you waiting for?
It too MSFT almost 15 years to make a new ATH after the dotcom bubble burst.. and regards in here complain it's back at 2024 prices 🫡
Not long ago MSFT was trading at 35 PE, since then all of a sudden the whole microsoft ecosystem turned to shit? Makes sense
Tell me more about " I'm thinking it's getting steadily more and more likely you get a vol event off this out of big tech and into small caps thing where it suddenly reverts with a snap of the finger." This already happened, are you saying people drop small caps etc and go back into tech? I'm wondering if the same thing will happen. The tech is dead narrative coming from the same people stockpiling MSFT at $500 is weird. And I've swing traded consumer staples etc for years and only saw this this expensive once. Then they crashed slowly over the following 3 months
drawdown today from 52w high: MSFT -28%, AMZN -23%, META -20%, AAPL -11%, NVDA -14% now also GOOGL -13% ORCL -54%, NFLX -43%, PLTR -37%, AMD and AVGO -22%, banks -10% what's even left to correct at this point, they already crashed everything basically...
Loaded up on MSFT & S&P today. USA runs the world, this isn’t gonna change. T.rumps literally telling you the markets gonna double, your fault if you’re too scared to buy the dip.
MSFT still ended red. 4th consecutive day
AMZN will never see 250 at this rate META will never see 750 at this rate MSFT will never see 450 at this rate GOOGL will never see 350 at this rate
Agreed. MSFT -28%, AMZN -23%, DELL -30%, AVGO -21%, HOOD -50% just to name a few of the bigger names
MSFT 280 is fair value, sell off is too slow
MSFT can hit $3 Trillion - if it rallies a bit! 🤡
No don’t fall MSFT, you’re too sexy for that jaja
I’m pretty bearish overall, but surely AMZN under 200 and MSFT under 400 are both steals on a 5-year horizon, right? Probably won’t print quite as hard as previous 5, but a lock nonetheless?
This MSFT stock is not real man. I keep buying the dip then this bitch trades flat. My 2/20s are cooked but hopefully my May and Junes are fine
fuck it, i’m dumping my margin into MSFT
MSFT just revealed that over 90% of their CAPEX is just trying to get Satya's hair back
Yes. I am considering it. NFLX, AMZN, MSFT
There is no AI bubble, so tired of the bullshit. The reason the companies truly invested in developing AI are seeing huge growth in their stock price is because their potential will absolutely be recognized. AI is software. AI is inevitable. And the world cannot function with MSFT NVDA AMZN etc.
Sold my CRWV zu buy MSFT NOW NET CRWD and ANET … feeling much more safe now. Had too much money in it and accepted 1.3k loss.
Just had an all hands meeting at a Billy G funded company where Teams just didn’t fucking work so ceo just canceled the whole thing. Puts on MSFT.
God let me out of these 440 MSFT march calls next week 🙏
They took down MSFT META and AMZN. GOOGL is currently being taken out. So logically next week they take out TSLA and AAPL (buying TSLA puts 2/18 exp). The week after they take out NVDA on earnings. All lines up perfectly.
The AMZN and MSFT plummeting into the double-digits due to the $660B AI CapEx spending, as memory stocks such as SNDK nosedive upwards, demonstrates that 2026 has become the year of the Infrastructure vs. Implementation. The market is rewarding the providers of the Calculated Work (such as SNDK/NVDA) and penalizing the giants who are not yet able to demonstrate the ROI of their billions of dollars in expenditure. That is precisely why the Fear Trade struck logistics this week; investors are horrified by big tech debt lacking a clear, custom-designed deployment plan. The winners of 2026 will not simply be the ones on this list that can compute the most, but the ones who can learn to eliminate the noise of the data to have their experts be able to scale.
MSFT gonna fizzle out. I guarantee it.
The MSFT 0DTE calls I sold for a 17% profit, are now 2x 💀
MSFT Tuesday Target price?
MSFT really testing my hands today
Even MSFT is green. It's over for bers.
I looked at Google and was like they offer google docs for free.. so what are new businesses, home offices or students o general people using? They aren't paying MSFT if they can get it for free. And in this economy where everyone is getting squeezed, I couldn't find something better than FREE! AMZN still has retail, AWS, Robots, Anthropic. Google still has Google Cloud, Search, Youtube, Waymo, Anthropic. MSFT could be vulnerable outside of Azure as MSFT is way too dependent on SAAS for revenue. But since I'm probably 100% wrong.. that means you should hold MSFT and it'll go to the Moon!
I think three companies are positioned to do very well in the AI wars: GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN What makes companies like Open AI and Anthropic vulnerable is that they are pure-play AI; they are highly dependent on subscription models. GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN have diverse revenue streams, so if the AI bubble pops, they will recover and rebuild. Alternatively, the AI bubble popping might wipe out a company like Open AI. Google is building their AI in-house, so they don't have to worry about dependency on a pure-play company. Microsoft is building Copilot using ChatGPT. And Azure Cloud is a big part of AI infrastructure. And Microsoft's postioning in the development community makes them an important player in the AI coding revolution. If Open AI's stock collapses, that puts Microsoft in a good position to buy them out. And I'm sure that this was part of the reasoning for the Copilot branding, but Microsoft could swap out the LLM underneath to something like Athropic, and just call it Copilot 2.0 (depending on how all this shakes out). Amazon is also investing heavily in Open AI and would likely also be a contender to buy them out. AI infrastructure will also be heavily dependent on AWS. Of the three, Amazon is likely in the weakest position. I think back to the Dot Com bubble, and how that popped. But dot coms didn't go away, it just resulted in a lot of consolidation among tech's big players.
holy fuck had 3k in MSFT calls, was down 2.2k and now sold for a 300$ win. Im taking a break from this bull shit
For one last time MSFT……. GO THE FUCK UP
Odds of my MSFT 410 calls expiring March 6th playing out?