MSFT

G_B4G

Did you see MSFT?

kyndboi

Would only trade into strength and ticket the cost as education if you truly cant lose that portion. Feeling your situation but have slightly more theta on my end. Currently holding a MSFT $430c exp Aug of this year. Down ~$1.2k (~30%) so far. Doesn't feel great to watch, but with August expiry I'm giving it time and waiting for a better exit window rather than forcing a decision early.

burnertaintlol

Yep. There are things about Microsoft I don’t love, sure. But they just had the biggest earnings in the history of Mag7 (soon beaten by Tim Apple) and their PE is/was 24.5 or so. Even with NFLX fall they are still like 31ish and Amazon at $200 is about 28. Which I also bought some of. My trading strategy past my bulk index funds with just my “fun” money is to pick a few mega caps I love and believe in long term. When the narrative sours and the stock tanks, load up. IMO-GOOG, TIMAPPL, MSFT, AMZN are always going to go back up and be great long term holds. Maybe they don’t beat the market for a bit as long as the narrative lasts. Look at Google. Great earnings, stock would tank. Every time. MSFT similar lately. MGK is also my favorite very tech/mega cap heavy etf from Vanguard if you don’t want to guess and time or worry about when to sell.

ahopye

Same. The money hasn't left the market, SPY is still sky high. It's just temporarily rotated into more defensive plays. I'd expect it to hold fairly steady this week at worst. AMZN, GOOG and MSFT look like bargains right now. WMT earnings could be a "sell the news" event that sparks the re-rotation. Throw in NVIDIA earnings as another potential catalyst. And then (for Amazon in particular) a positive supreme court decision on Friday would really light the touch paper. Could be a gradual climb or it could be hard and fast depending on these potential catalysts. Regardless, it's going up and I'm loading up on Wednesday.

Vegetable-Cause8667

MSFT because I use every day, it has a huge suite of integrated products and services, and it’s ingrained in many, if not most, businesses, government, and institutions in America, and internationally.

sl3azebag

MSFT is gonna fucking moon this week LOL

Pin-Last

Buying NOW, CRM, PANW, VEEV, WDAY, INTU, ADSK, DUOL… but almost as much MSFT as the rest combined. Itching to buy the 2x msft ETF, MSFU. 

Stock_Succotash_1560

MSFT you pos go up 🤬

ThroooowRA0101

I work for Microsoft so I get to see everything that is in beta testing and it is getting much much better, to be honest the copilot integration to m365 helps MSFT tremendously, once companies want to start integrating their workflows and creating agents it is a no brainer to go with the MSFT stack.

ahopye

I am telling you now, MSFT/GOOG/AMZN to the moon this week. We've just erased 2.5m workers, yet GDP grew by 2.6%? And how have we done that? AI. Much weaker job numbers than expected? JPOW's rate cut money printer is coming out to secure the soft landing legacy. A measurable productivity spike enabled by AI makes a clearer path to monetization for MAG 7, and starts to justify the AI capex for the build out. Meanwhile MAG 7 are slashing headcount while still rocketing growth in areas like Amazon's AWS. Tech has bled but SPY is 2% below ATH. We've not lost the money, it's rotated into defensive stocks including Costco, Walmart, etc. Lower jobs numbers will likely open some sort of income gap, hurting consumer staples, sparking a sector re-rotation. WMT earnings (and NVIDIA), and possibility of supreme court tarrifs decision on Friday, we are going to the fucking moon.

ahopye

I am fucking bullish on MSFT/GOOG/AMZN etc. Much weaker job numbers than expected? Fed have kept it too tight too long. Couple it with the cooler than expected CPI? Time to cut those god damn rates JPOW. GDP growth is steady despite fewer workers than expected? Productivity per worker is higher. SPY earnings power is higher than we realized. What's helping enable these productivity gains? AI. A measurable productivity spike enabled by AI makes a clearer path to monetization for MAG 7, and starts to justify the AI capex for the build out. Meanwhile MAG 7 are slashing headcount while still rocketing growth in areas like Amazon's AWS. Now, tech has bled heavily but SPY is only 2% below ATH. We've had a huge rotation out of tech into "defensive" stocks, heavily centred on consumer staples (Costco, Walmart, etc). Significantly lower jobs numbers opens up a bit of an income gap, which should hurt retail. This should in turn spark a sector re-rotation back to tech (or oblivion). June/July rate cuts by 50bps. Calls to the wall, regards.

Vegetable-Pepper7772

The current chart for MSFT shows a significant downtrend over the past six months, losing over 22% of its value. The price has recently approached the lower end of its 52-week range, indicating a potential area of support. While not a classic reversal pattern, the flattening out of the decline around the 400-405 price level, after a sharp drop, suggests a period of consolidation that could precede a rebound. Minervini's 'base formation' principles suggest that after a significant decline, a period of stabilization and accumulation can occur before a new uptrend. The 400-405 level appears to be acting as a short-term support, as per ChartScanner.AI analysis, where buying interest might be emerging. A confirmed breakout above immediate resistance would signal a stronger bullish conviction.

Seadog98

I feel like the AI euphoria is simmering? Isn’t that why GOOG and MSFT dumped so hard for overspending?

Seadog98

GOOG & MSFT leaps are clearly the play. Am I missing something other than Gates liking kids?

Moepenmoes

Thank you for your service, I'll pay you a 0,0000000001% dividend of my MSFT shares

TheRealArmament

Another week of MSFT being flaccid af

Defiant-Opposite-501

BRICS nations based entities are actively looking for Linux based alternatives to MSFT products, that is true.

NVDAismyg0d

6 am in Tokyo, can’t sleep listening to lil durk and building Powerpoint slides 💪💪I got you MSFT shareholders, producing value as we speak 

PaperHandsTheDip

Good to know. Overall the end result is always the same tho -- fear passes and market resolves itself. Take MSFT - their growth on azure was supply limited - not demand limited.

PaperHandsTheDip

I agree. IMO it's an overreaction to the tech sector. If you remove AI from MSFT - it's still in value territory imo. There's been a massive rotation from tech -> value in fears of a crash happening. What occured is that actually caused big tech to crash and value to get pumped. SPY went sideways, QQQ went down slighlty, but some legit / large / valuable companies got rekt. I'm seeing 20-40% down on some solid companies -- MSFT being one.

Status-Net2947

Happy about selling crwv for net, MSFT, CRWD and now.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm running it on MSFT. Look at the PE here: [https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi](https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi) It's literally only been this low 3 other times in the last DECADE, during which it stayed depressed for a grand total of \~2-4 months. Other times seen: Interest rate fears (2022), Covid lows (2020) & the 2018 dip (whatever caused that). Ain't no way it stays depressed for a long long time.

Practical_Priority_6

Cause people are sheep buy MSFT in 10 years or less you’ll be laughing at the gains

PaperHandsTheDip

Close expiration, goodluck! I hope we see $440 by then, we'd both be printing hard! The CC's are netting me \~1% / day at the moment for a \~0.5-1% OTM. IE: I sold 402.5 CC's for $4 each, that expire EOD weds. As long as it's below 406.5 by EOD weds I'm better off with the CC's. BUT - I'm closing them at market open irregardless of outcome. Will reset then as well (either buy or sell shares to bring margin back to \~300%). I'm only using the CC's due to high leverage. I don't really like running them on things I'm bullish on when they're in dips. Look at the PE of MSFT here, it's fucked. [https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi](https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi) We've only been this low 3 times in the last DECADE, and during which we stayed at the depressed PE for a total of... 2-4 months. Hence why I think 1 month may be risky, personally if buying calls I'd target 4-6 months.

PaperHandsTheDip

Oh no, I might be cooked. I'm also in MSFT. What strikes and expirations? My current strategy is: triple leveraged MSFT w/ daily reset. It's kinda like calls (exponential up AND down movements) -- but no expiration & no liquidation point. I am also selling OTM CC's everyday EOD on it (that expire in like 1-2 days) for a nice premium. Close them at open & rebalance, open them at EOD again. Basically it gives me CC's for the overnight movements. The idea is simply I think MSFT has been oversold (a lot of tech has). But idk where the bottom is. Buying the dip on oversold solid companies is generally a decent bet. To minimize bloodyness of catching the knife - CC's really help. After we get any sort of reversal confirmed - I'ma quit the CC's and just do triple leveraged w/ daily reset. GL with the calls!

kool_mandate

It’s not too late if you really believe it’s a better investment . I don’t want to talk you out of ADBE , but MSFT is still <410. Just saying . I have 100 shares of MSFT and 3 270 leap calls . Cost is about $94k but I have exposure to 400 shares of MSFT Upside for 3 years . Selling otm calls on all to bring cost basis cost basis down closer to $80k

PaperHandsTheDip

Oh no. I'm in a triple leveraged MSFT with daily reset and selling OTM CC's for income / on the premiums. As soon as it starts reversing I quit the daily OTM CC's and ride it back up! Literally can't go tits up, right?

PaperHandsTheDip

Tomorrow MSFT go up? When these tech stonks gonna bottom? I started buying last week

Icy-Sheepherder-7595

Yeah I see the argument to be made that it's risky since the per-seat licensing may take a hit if companies reduce headcount. In all honesty I am wishing I just kept the money on the side to buy more MSFT but we're going to ride it out now. I'm not adding to this position though.

Specialist_Exam_8433

My personal opinion is that regardless of what happens in the short term, we are going to end at ATH by end of year. META to 800+, AAPL to 300+, MSFT to 550+, and NVDA to 200+

throwingitanyway

i'm bagholding MSFT now

Past_Paint_225

This I agree with. I'm not sure what MSFT can do to stem the cash flow burn (I sincerely wish they fire their "AI CEO" to start with), but if they are able to manage or reverse the spending they are doing the stock should be back to previous levels.

Redditor2000000

MSFT and ADBE are down for two different reasons, which are ironically somewhat opposite to one another. ADBE is down due to the, in my judgment, totally overblown AI-driven obsolescence narrative. MSFT is down because they’re throwing piles of money into things like OpenAI which are not profitable (yet at least). The broad market rotation right now is to higher cash flow companies. ADBE has TTM price/FCF of 12, while MSFT is at 39. This is becoming a show-me-the-money / cash-is-king market (note how high flowing dividend stocks have become as of late).

Cool_Giraffe6495

Sounds good! I don't have a magic ball :-) it can go to zero and it can go $600. All I'm saying is that MSFT is not going anywhere. FWIW, I'm predicting that this year will be a flat year (for the overall market).

AlbinoWino73

I bought both on the pullback as well, buy MSFT is a much heavier allocation. Good luck to both of us.

OG_Tater

Let’s see, I’m middle aged. In my investment career I’ve seen a few huge trends. -Internet stocks- the best in breed absolutely mooned. 2001 was a pullback but unless you thought Pets.com was the next MSFT you probably did OK. Then came: -Social media and video- This is the 2007-2012 era of Google, NFLX and Meta. They were leaders in the industry. Then and now. Unless you full ported on Snapchat then you’ve done great. -A more boring trend, the move away from cash to electronic payments. This is visa, Mastercard, etc. -Renewable energy- turns out this was a mega trend with varying returns. Have to be fair. Not all trends make you rich. But many of the leaders have done great. -Electric vehicles. Yeah, long term TSLA shareholders are pretty happy. Myself included. -And now- AI and space. Look above and tell me you actually believe the leaders in this mega trend will not produce great returns.

Redditor2000000

MSFT a "better" business? With the Windows 11 debacle (and even people "upgrading from Windows 11 or 10 BACK to Windows 7") I hardly think it's "better" or safer. If Linux improves further in seamlessly running Windows apps (and at the same time, programs like Adobe Photoshop are given Linux compatibility which is exactly what they're doing), they're will be a lot of people saying sayonara to Microsoft. It isn't the monopoly it once was (but I guess for some peoples' backwards logic, NOT being a monopoly is a "good" thing).

nclakelandmusic

I just spread my tech holdings over the strongest companies and hold. AVGO, MSFT, AMD, NVDA, MRVL, CRTO, TSM, META, GOOGL. I watch the action, but I'm in for at least the next ten years.

OneTwoThreePooAndPee

I would argue that MSFT, GOOG, AMZN are better positioned to make large comebacks in the next year. This kind of reset is standard for tech stocks moving through a shifting era. Look at the history of any of them and there are times they drop like this during uncertainty, but these three big tech companies IN PARTICULAR are poised to capitalize on AI in very specific markets (office/cloud/enterprise productivity, life productivity, logistics/cloud productivity), and they all are positioning to be core AI players without being irrevocably attached to just a single model. SNAP can't succeed without Android and cloud infra, both of which support these underlying providers as well. 🤷‍♂️

RoverV

Bad valentines date huh? Kidding but to counter your points: at a basic level, markets are about money - who has it, how are they making it, how are they using it. GOOGL ,AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, META (and governments…) have it and they’ve said where it’s going. GOOGL isn’t issuing century bonds for weed stocks or crypto.

Origania

NBIS has 5 year contracts locked in with both META and MSFT iirc. They just have collect payment.

Shot-Acanthaceae1420

As if MSFT can't automate its own suite of software via AI prompts.

PaperHandsTheDip

probs, I'm not playing it. Swapped to MSFT

Sweetlittle66

Agreed. It's a combination of MSFT's massive enshittification of their flagship product, and the US administration's hostility to their allies making people go "wait how would our economy actually function if we had to stop using US products?"

LuckyDrive1053

It's about valuation.The intrinsic value of MSFT is arnd $390. On the other hand you have WallStreet Price Target of $595. Is it not a Buying Opportunity ?

Bojack_Horseman22

MSFT, AMZN dropped hard af, 20-30% yet the s&p500 is only 3-5% from ath. Maybe be less lazy and karma farming man

Aevaris_

My view and why I'm bearish on MSFT is: - theyre heavily invested in OpenAI. OpenAI has never made a dollar and has a huge amount of debt and their models are under performing competitors. Not a good outlook there. - Apple already partnered with Google. So Gemini will be on every mobile device, Chrome OS, and Mac. - Anthropic is winning the corporate space. In having used most major AI platforms, what Claude can do producing code or synthesizing/summarizing data is vastly better than competitors. It is also far better for personal uses compared to copilot in my experience too - Linux has gotten really good for both server and personal use. I expect to see more business move to Linux given costs of everything Yes, MSFT has Azure. But given these factors, I just don't see a bull case for significant growth.

Portfoliana

Selling MSFT and QCOM was a good call but holding ZS at -36% is risky – cybersecurity is getting commoditized and the valuation never made sense. CRM at -32% is more interesting, their FCF is massive and Agentforce could be a real catalst. Netflix at -29% feels temporary. The BABA/BIDU recovery is a good reminder that sometimes you just need to survive the drawdown.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

siggystabs

MSFT is solid, but I can’t put them in the same tier as Google. Say what you will about Gemini, but Google is fully vertically integrated for their AI platform (Google-designed TPUs), while OpenAI and the rest are still fighting over Nvidia GPUs in their data centers. Google also created the foundational concepts all LLMs have been built on, and still have an enormous collection of training data and products — they’re well positioned to stay competitive in the AI race. Meanwhile, MSFT is betting hard that OpenAI continues to be the market leader, and now that their first mover advantage has disappeared, it’s significantly tougher to compete. Anthropic and Grok are making this a crowded sector more than ever, and all are competing for the same hardware resources. I don’t think MSFT is a bad buy. It’s part of my portfolio and continues to grow in enterprise, like you pointed out. However… my time horizons are all screwed up, due to AI progression and geopolitics being completely screwed up past few months. I’m starting to be more bullish on Google and Apple just because they aren’t fully reliant on Nvidia to compete in AI.

AlGAdams

Thats worse than I performed.  But it wouldnt matter to me if MSFT did all of a sudden rocket, unless it was built on systemic changes to their models that made their products better.

IClosetheDealz

MSFT leaps, I picked up 330 jun 27 last week.

gummi_eater

would like to get a reminder to see whats happened a year from now with MSFT !remindme 1 year

Woodrow-Wilson

Microsoft sales has been stepping its game up I work for FTSE 100 and they are pushing hard (and winning) somehow to have us use all MSFT products. We are switching to teams from zoom, I have to trade diarrhea for vomit 😭

Successful-End7689

MSFT with a PE(nis) ratio of 25... is it a good time to buy?

Financial-Word-4791

$MSFT $450+ rebound incoming

owenmills04

I’m 50% VT, 50% MSFT

Santarini

Why are people so bullish on MSFT lol? It has a 3T valuation right now--the 4th largest market cap in the world and people are acting like buying it today at 3T is like buying NVDA in 2017 sub 100B. Disclaimer: MSFT is my 5th largest holding and I did add to my position at $400/share. I'm just tired of people acting like this is like getting in on sunlight before there was fucking sunlight

Epledryyk

to be fair, xbox is less than 10% of MSFT revenue I'm not sure gaming really has anything to do with their share price at all, not when things like oracle, azure and being an openAI proxy stock are the big winds

digitalrefuse

Worked at MSFT for a VERY long time before and having been through everything that happens in Redmond esp in relation to how the company leadership approaches solving issues and what’s real vs vaporware, I’ll say the following - The probability of me getting fkd sideways is in the high 90 percentile range than the probability it msft leveraging AI to make any measurable impact on most white-collar jobs (which will be in the single digit percentile)

MD_Peds

Am I stupid for having 100% of my networth in MSFT?

SimilarTap1419

PLTR and MSFT will both be up over 8% on Tues. Smart money will pour into software.

marcelowa

Let the numbers speak https://www.metricsi.de/stock/MSFT

Laureles2

Good point, but do you think OpenAI constitutes that much of MSFT's total value? 27% of OpenAI ($600B?) is like $160M, and MSFT's market cap is $3B+.

CMDR_Shepard96

I'm glad the market is closed on Monday. I can't lose even more money on my MSFT calls 🫠

Not_FinancialAdvice

> Xbox brand starting to crumble with too much focus on "Game Pass" that won't pay off long-term It's kind of interesting how 18 months ago (or so), there were numerous posts about Game Pass was a game-changer and would revolutionize the video game market. It feels like MS has just completely forgotten about XBox lately. Transparency: MSFT shareholder

ArnoldisKing

i want costco but its too high now. i bought some MSFT this week.

ArnoldisKing

i bought some of all 3...mostly MSFT and AMZN. Want to add google but it hasnt dropped much.

ETFBro4DaWinz

In Wall Street parlance, Joe Biden nostalgia is basically just cash gang and youd be sitting on -0.96% since he left office if you followed that thesis. In fairness, that beats "MSFT is the safe mag 7 pick" thesis

anivex

I've been using windows for 30 years and this is the first time I'm considering switching to Linux. It's finally in a place where it's user-friendly, and I'm just tired of all the bullshit MSFT keeps doing to windows. That being said...none of that matters because most of MSFT money is B2B.

SaltyATC69

I'm bullish MSFT

Tradewell3845

With this market it’s bearish for a few then boom! You better hope for a bearish week , why do this man it’s insane to short MSFT but I hope your right

Ok_Cry7572

Msft went down cause OpenAI is like 45% of their RPO Almost half of MSFT's RPO is from a not-for-profit company that cannot generate a profit on $20B revenue run rate Investors are scared that if OpenAI were to default on its $281 billion obligation (45% of the $625 billion total RPO) it would cause lots of damage. Reason why it's down over 15% YTD

YeahBuddy5000

"I took a 22% loss on my round 2 MSFT 440 call....Switched to PUTS" Talk about conviction

Status-Net2947

Sold CRWV with a loss of 10% for a bit of MSFT, CRWD, NET, ANET and NOW. Did I fk up?

Little_Magazine_1773

Simply put Microsoft is at danger of losing it's moat. Azure will probably still make money as that's clearly growing and in demand.. But for new businesses, students, people in home office and general use.. are they going to pay MSFT for windows/ excel when they can get google docs for FREE? In this economy I don't see them paying MSFT for SaaS, not when there are free options about that do the same thing. Changing times!

AlGAdams

Several reasons for me.  I work with Microsoft cloud services and the lay offs in the past 3 years have caused severe brain drain with them.  Morale within the company is extremely low.   Combine with most of their cloud growth backlog coming from OpenAI, which is a money destroying machine.  Add in tone deaf Satya Nadella who apparently thinks its everyone else's job to find a use for his products no one likes. Microsoft sucks, MSFT and ORCL are two companies I will never buy. 

disisfugginawesome

I hold MSFT stock and firmly agree that copilot sucks, I get no value from it at work

PaperHandsTheDip

Look at their PE ratios. MSFT is trading at covid levels right now. It's cheap, even when factoring in "AI might fail" imo

Happy_Discussion_536

Because durable, powerful companies like MSFT are literally still growing at 60% earnings a year. Even without multiple expansion and returning to old valuations just static multiples they're going to outperform crappy shitcos that can't even grow revenue.

Greedy_Ad4913

Curious when we See this in the Chart 🤔 [MSFT](https://www.stoxcraft.com/stocks/msft)

PuntaVerde

That's one of the reason MSFT is down, what you described there means millions of people doing those tasks will become irrelevant. If they are irrelevant and out of their 'seats' they are not paying Microsoft.

Novel_Land9320

MSFT cannot complete with Google on AI. Suleyman is the head of their AI lab and in the industry he s considered the least of the founders of Deepmind. He was basically pushed out. For s moment MSFT was bullish because of the whole control of OAI, but when that relationship broke, and latest numbers show that lots of Azure s AI is used by OAI, the picture changed.

ConversationPale8665

Have you seen the latest where tech stocks like MSFT and Google are being judged by analysts based on how much money they are spending on Capex related to AI? It seems insane to me the amount of scrutiny going into this because it’s being used as a barometer for who will be ready for the next “phase” of whatever, but no one is talking about the herd of elephants in the room: 1. Who will pay for this? 2. What will this do to energy costs for everyone? 3. What if it doesn’t work? 4. If medium to high paying jobs disappear, who is buying… anything? 5. How would AI ever be able to answer a question like: “Can you add these three new employees to have access to all of our bank accounts so that they have view only access like Jim and Barbara, but they can also be able to run credit cards like Tammy, but don’t let the third person be able to approve ACH’s”… Go. That’s one of the simpler things I do at work and there’s no way in hell AI is going to have access to all that and be able to set all that up unless you just want to be hacked.

imdaviddunn

5 Major things. 1. AI could render MSFT products useless. You can just tell the agent to build the doc, spreadsheet presentation you want. If they don’t embed these tool, they will be at risk. 2. They have to pay for the models for the items you mentioned. They hooked up with openAI and got dumped. Now they are behind. 3. Less knowledge work means less seat licenses or at minimum smaller packages. 4. Assumption there is a hyperscaler capex rate that will be a drag on future earning. 5. They are also along with SoftBank a way to get public investment in OpenAI. OpenAI is looking like a potential loser, taking MSFT down. I don’t know if any or all of that will come true, but

IHadTacosYesterday

Be careful because sometimes that can be revenge trading. Your subconscious mind could be thinking....: *"Oh.... So you're going to keep dropping the price... Ok... ok...Then I'll just keep buying more... Oh... you're going to drop the price more? Then, I'm just going to keep buying more..."* I've had this happen to me where after buying something and it dropping badly, I feel like I need to get "revenge" by buying more of it and lowering my overall cost basis. Lowering my cost basis made me feel better, but the problem is... you get crazy overweight in whatever it is, and then your future is tied to that singular investment which can be quite dangerous. You can get lucky at it all works out, but maybe when MSFT is $360 per share, you look around and see what price is TSM? NVDA? GOOG? AVGO? CRWD? AMD? Maybe something else of very high quality has also plunged dramatically and you can have at least a little more diversification instead of fullporting MSFT

Past_Paint_225

I have burnt myself a bunch of times trying to get into companies which were cheap on paper, without fully being confident about their business. There are short term dislocations in other much better businesses as well (like MSFT) which I would be looking at.

PennyStonkingtonIII

I’m curious why you think Copilot will get better when Edge and Bing still suck as much as ever. I actually think that has something to do with it. Users are sick of having second rate crap forced on them and see Copilot is to AI what Edge is for browsers. Also, everyone is very angsty about who will win or lose the ai race and are over-reacting because they think MSFT is losing. IMO, they’re not losing. What follows is only my opinion but I see a commoditization of LLM based AI. I’ve used them all. To me, they’re all the same at the core. The tooling around them is the main difference. None of them have an advantage in the long run. None of them can bump MSFT out of the corporate space.

Sufficient-Pie-7815

Not sure Copilot sucks! I have a few friends that use it and love it! MSFT is one-of the most profitable companies! 38.5 billion last quarter! Azure growing at 38%! Revenue at about 82 billion! This sell off is a knee jerk reaction to the cost of building out AI capacity and services! This is a huge buying opportunity!

joe4942

MSFT apparently planning a new frontier model, and most businesses/consumers still use MSFT. Definitely an overreaction.

RSomnambulist

Meanwhile, MSFT be tanking my whole portfolio.

SecretlyARaven

Iirc he meant to do MSFT

cbusoh66

Think about it this way, if Altman, Suleyman, Amodei, Hassabis are all saying most white color jobs will be replaced by AI in 12-18 months. Anything that requires a computer or working with a computer is at risk of being replaced by AI. Now think about what companies are most exposed to people using computers to do their jobs. These guys see where things are going much earlier than we do, the models we use today have started development 6-12 months ago. The smart money has access to more information and more data points than we do, you can't take a redditor's pov "well, no one will be able to replace Office in my lifetime" because they have little clues of what's coming, and it's going to happen so fast and so violent that will leave everyone in utter shock. The selloff in MSFT, SaaS, most software names is not unwarranted, you don't want to be holding the bag when the switch is turned off. Best case scenario is that the software apocalyptic scenario doesn't happen or is delayed by another 6-12 months, but why take that risk?

18T15

It’s probably oversold but I think the sheer level of complete incompetence to bungle the enormous head start advantage they had with their relationship as an investor in OpenAI is worth discounting their value since they obviously are not executing well. Also Xbox/gaming is a complete bust and Windows/Office is not on an optimistic growth trajectory. If the idiot executive running their AI efforts is even remotely correct about AI replacing lots of white collar jobs (some yes, but I personally am still skeptical) that’s actually a negative on MSFT since that’s even less M365 subscriptions etc unless Copilot is the direct replacement and as stated before, due to their incompetence that’s very unlikely at the moment. I think it’s fine to buy MSFT right now because it was heavily sold. But let’s not act like the bear case doesn’t exist.

rasputin777

Redditors and understanding how businesses work is always funny. MSFT is famously excellent at cash flow management and efficiency. You're saying they hire tends of thousands of people making $200-600k just for no reason at all?

_hiddenscout

Yeah to me that's like the elephant in the room that I keep not seeing in these threads. Overall MSFT is a great business, but it's the Cloud that is driving everything.

Anon58715

AAA rating, which is the other company besides MSFT?

botella36

The 45% backlog is indeed an issue. MSFT also owns a nice chunk of OpenAI, so if people now are having second thoughts about OpenAI it impacts the value of MSFT ownership.

Cool_Giraffe6495

Just a year ago everyone was bearish on GOOGL. I loaded up big time. I'm happy camper. Same scenario now. MSFT is not going anywhere. The current issue with MSFT is that management is spending a boatload of money. Once they stop spending that much, watch the stock go back up like crazy. Let's talk in 1 year.

opo113

I hold some software stock so I decided to check their credit ratings. Might be true in general that software companies in general have lower credit ratings, but it seems like the reputable ones are investment grade. *Disclaimer: I know basically nothing about credit ratings and this comment is probably categorically incorrect* ADBE has investment grade bonds: https://public.com/bonds/corporate/adobe-inc/adbe-5.3-01-17-2035-00724pak5 NOW is investment grade: https://public.com/bonds/corporate/servicenow-inc/now-1.4-09-01-2030-81762pae2?wpsrc=Organic+Search&wpsn=www.google.com MSFT is rated AAA, the highest possible rating, one of only two companies in the entire US with this high of rating: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/faq

kool_mandate

You know MSFT has already begun using ai to grow operating margins significantly right ?