Reddit Posts
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT hits positive net gamma exposure right now
I’m rotating around 80% of my MSFT position into META. Here’s my reasoning.
Ban bet Nintendo stock to $16 by EOY and if it hits $16 I’ll donate some switch 2s to children Hospitals
Where would you put surprise inheritance money
Big Tech's Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are distorting the corporate earnings picture
four green days, one red, and the red one is the only one i learned anything from
FOLLOW UP POST - Full Port Microsoft - Undervalued !!! 🚀📈
Mentions
God bless the scuff during the MSFT event.<3
Jensen about to talk at MSFT event
MSFT is the only company in the world
how the fuck does MSFT think openclaw is still relevant
I'll be charitable to MSFT and say at least their keynotes are still live unlike AAPL.
is MSFT just all indians now lmao
anyone else watching this MSFT event wonder how competitive the new hardware will be
Fine, then why does KO has the same forward PE as MSFT, which with less debt grows considerably faster and generates higher operating income?
like MSFT listens to its customers lol.
I've been holding for 10 years and it's been a wild ride from the pandemic boom, to the inflation crash and the return to highs. I'm still happy to hold it as long as the growth is still there (30%+ top line). But if I'm being honest, I'd be taking more off the table if it weren't in taxable, though definitely not selling out. It's more of weight got too high and not wanting that much single stock risk. In same vein, NVDA weight got too high long ago, but I held higher conviction on it, and only recently started selling small bits and pieces; though this is in retirement accounts. SHOP is always going to cater to smaller businesses who need to rely on social media to get their name and product out there. Or those smaller businesses can choose to go on a platform like AMZN or EBAY for more eyes. In reality, many do both. I have more confidence in long term sustainability of big business feeding big business. For example, I'm heavily invested in hyperscalers MSFT AMZN GOOGL because they will always serve the biggest and most successful companies. But if a SHOP customer gets too big, they are most certainly building their own site to cut the middle person out.
This time last year I was like, yah know... I should move some money into MSFT. Seems like an easy win fucking lol
$GOOG is the new $MSFT everyone gonna be pissed when it jumps $100 out of nowhere
MSFT call for OCT 9 babbyyyyy
MSFT, they own mojang and u know what a shit company they are
I'm kind of over leveraged on MSFT. Decided a few months ago that once it was going above 525, I was going to look for an exit. I don't mind if they get assigned next week, but if the price craters later this week from profit taking, I may consider closing them if the profit is nice enough. I'm not losing sleep over it. This bubble may pop sooner than later and even if it doesn't, I'm not sure how much upside is left in the mag 7.
you hit on the passive inflow; but the real kicker is the ETF options that trade on those cap-weighted funds. a sudden pull on Apple or MSFT skews the SPX option gamma and can drag the whole index. so an AI retreat can still knock the market into a sharp slide even if the underlying non-AI section is less affected.
It is basically a mix of private equity, strategic investment, debt and whatever revenue the lab can produce, but the uncomfortable part is how long the capital intensity stays this high. Training does not stop just because one model is good. I watch the public proxies on Moon like NVDA, MSFT and the data center names, but their charts obviously cannot tell you whether the private lab economics actually work.
I know MSFT better than I know my own children
NFLX became MSFT from couple of months ago. Everything down NFLX up
Sold everything (except MSFT because it's free money) and went cash gang, good luck today everyone else!
MSFT has their event today. 550 by next friday
People talking about going out of MU and in to AMD, seems like the top is in for AMD. I’m all in on puts today for MSFT and AVGO. No risk no fun, they ran to hard lately. MSFT is going to get whooped by OpenAi sooner or later. Money gone and cloud revenue correction.
I had this issue until I looked at the EPS compared to a MSFT or Google.
MSFT event tomorrow surely it’ll pump like MRVL did today :derp:
I feel vindicated for holding onto MSFT and NVDA this year while everyone was huffing and puffing about “bag7”. Losers
I'm selling CCs on my MSFT shares right now. I've got a ton from when I worked there and with them sniffing ATHs, I figured it was time. Of course I sold 530 calls for next Friday, so this will probably be the only time I sell covered calls. lol. Was hoping to be able to do that for a couple months at least. But I won't be complaining about a 6 figure check with a 6 figure gain attached. You're welcome MSFT bulls.
I’m optimistic that earnings this month will generate another spike, getting MSFT closer to 600 by years end. I can stomach a 10-15% haircut in the short term, but I’m way too bitchmade to let half my capital rip and hope it comes back to breakeven.
MSFT is gonna get slaughtered now that I’ve bought leaps right?
I think we are cooked bros, they are already dumping ahead of the NVDA/MSFT Conference tomorrow, as soon as Jensen comes on we are going to get rugged
tomorrow TSLA 360 MSFT 505 AAPL 325 WDC 450 SKHY 170 will cash out and delete my app if this happens :)
#Tech funds: We have a sophisticated proprietary investment strategy to identify tech stocks” #Their Portfolio: NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, AVGO, AMD #LMAO🤌
MSFT will probably dip right? Right?
Just buy Google's enemies stock MSFT and AAPL
Your datapoint is not accurate, it's down 20% from all time highs, not on the year. For instance a dog like KHC is probably near decade from its all time high, but not down 20% for the year. However cumulative earnings and revenue is rising. The reality is you have companines like NVDA MSFT GOOGL AAPL that have net income of over $100b/year with NVDA cracking $200b/year soon. Won't be long before AMZN joins that $100b. Not only are the numbers huge, they are growing. How many of the bottom SP500 would you need to account for to touch $100b, $200b, $500b of net income? That is why the weight of the index is skewed, because so are the profits. When a compnay has $30-50b of net income in the quarter and growing that at just 10%, that delta alone is more than what many of the bottom SP500 companies make in just revenue, nevermind profit.
Up 37% on my MSFT and the pump is finally happening it seems
MSFT 540 and SPX 7850 and I’ll be done for the day, then it can do whatever
Multiple times in the past months I was about to sell calls on my MSFT positions. Everytime I wouldve gotten rekt hard. The one time I bought a call it was a major win. Unfortunately I was a pussy and only bought 1 instead of 10. Couldve made 70-80k
Oh it will pop. Where is the revenue going to come from to justify the CAPeX spending? Anthropic and OpenAI are in trouble. Google and MSFT will be fine bc they are established businesses. Hell Oracle just announced they sent a Force Majeure notice to the developer bldg out Project Jupiter. Hello?
Wild that MSFT was under 350 a few weeks back
also what these permabears either forget or just simply are ignorant of, there have been multiple 20% drops already, or more, among almost all the AI companies outside of GOOGL at some point since the start of the AI bull run. That includes MSFT, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MU, SNDK, MRVL, SMCI, etc. etc.
Open source agent competition and commoditization of *most* AI product cases is the most likely bubble burster to me. If Anthropic and OpenAI (and MSFT, Meta, SPCX XSIgbq+ etc...) can't monetize up to what is forecasted (or rather dreamed of) then alot of this debt and capex starts to look reaaaallll unfortunate.
Strong performance from SPY, MSFT
guys MSFT is going straight to ATHs
VT? Told holding NVDA, MSFT. AAPL. AMZN. GOOG, TSM you are so protected from AI downturn
The user you replied to was not talking about the economic standing of the "average person." They were talking about the disconnect between stock market prices and business fundamentals. The highest valued companies, like META, NVDA, TSLA, and GOOG, are not making profits that justify their valuations. They are valued based on growth despite already being the largest companies on Earth. For them to grow, the entire economy would have to grow dramatically more than it ever has before. Growth in the past has been driven by increased populations, improved living standards and consumption, and expansion into new markets. In the absence of these factors, it is not rational to imagine economic growth would accelerate or even remain constant. What you are suggesting about the distinction between luxury spending and general consumer spending would only make sense if the top companies were luxury companies. Current growth is not driven by luxury stocks (e.g. RACE is way down from last year), and in fact the vast majority of stocks are trending downward. The main stocks driving growth are technology companies that play in advertising spaces (GOOG, META), companies that sell consumer technology (AAPL, MSFT), and AI-related companies (NVDA) which currently have no profitable end user to speak of. These companies are not profitable from the spending of the top tenth or quartile of consumers. Their stock growth is based on speculation.
MSFT headed to $900
MSFT announced 10-20% cloud cost increases for customers starting next year and people still think MSFT will only go down from this point onwards lmao
and GOOG being outmogged by MSFT
I hear ya, but I just sold about 11,000 shares of AMD(we'll see if that was a good call), 5,000 of MSFT and I've been buying the 30 year when it's around 5.7). Not a ton, but... enough. And I'm still heaviest in NVDA and AMZN. So it's not a YOLO type trade. It's... probably good advice as a general rule, but I fucking LOVE SKHY's set up. I love MUs, but I think SKHY is even better.
I love $MSFT more than I love my own children
EVERY other time I've bought calls, or leaps(only ever leaps) I've held for less than 1 month. NVDA, MSFT were at 163 and 350 earlier this year. I bought 200 and 202 contracts at 215 and 500. In one month(almost exactly) it was at 210 and 480 and I sold. Just... took the winner. Same with shorts on WLMT and COST in Feb of '24. 3 weeks, sold. A couple other examples, but I don't do this much. But SKHY should hit 300 by the time those first set expire and I think it could go earlier. It's bigger than Micron, their price caps are off. They're selling almost 3X as much HBM4 to NVDA for Rubin and the COST is about 2.7X as much... and they are responsible for about 55-60% of the HBM4 share. PLUS, 2027 and 2028 being the largest memory shortages in history, unlike MU, THEY can still raise their price for peak pricing. I also think it's going to become less cyclical and it deserves a forward PE of at least 10-12. If it traded at JUST 12X Forward, it's 484. So I don't need some heroic move to get there. Also, I'm not using any leverage.
Everyone is pumping MSFT, time for the algos dump:)
I’m not a chartist, But MSFT’s chart looks g00d
just in time for WoW Forever calls on MSFT
$META and $MSFT are cutting internal Claude use as AI bills climb with Microsoft slashing per employee budgets from $100K to $10K a month and Meta pushing Muse Code even as Claude spend stays massive.
At Oil Price $88 handle, inflation & CPI probably already below 2% All sectors at 52 week low, where only few stocks pump index to all time high with AI-vibe $META $GOOG $ORCL $AMZN $MSFT $CRWV $NBIS $NVDA $MU $AVGO look market cap vs earnings power, when negative cash flow big
1R3N dare not target a $MSFT datacenter. The economic ramifications would be a revolting like the world will never know again.
Nvda, Tesla, MSFT, apple, Amazon, google, meta, AMD alone holding the market
So, 5 companies (MemeVDA, Apple, MSFT, Amazon and Meta) now represent 54% of the Chadsdaq, where MemeVDA weights 13.14% LMAO
MSFT and NVDA saved my life. Archer Aviation tried to put me out
I like the monthly updates. They show the thoughts of a normal investor instead of the worries of the get-rich-quick posters we frequently see here. That's an odd mix of stocks but I won't criticize the choices. You had your reasons and I support them. I'm less interested in how well they're doing then the process of what positions you are considering adding to, decreasing, or buying for the first time. You had an encouraging 2023 and 2024 to make up for the 1st year, and I think you were wise to diversify and accept lower gains. Although you may have some regrets on NVDA and AMD, I think it was the right move in decreasing those positions. McDonalds was a brave choice this month since they are struggling, but it could pay off nicely. The company is unlikely to disappear. I'm unclear on some of the purchases this year. I can't tell if you were adding to existing positions or creating new ones. If all new, you've been especially active and I hope you've done your research instead of acting on fears of missing out. I think you might consider more ETFs. Picking the right individual stocks is hard. Maybe sell off 10% of MSFT sometime next year and get an ex-US ETF or a large-cap value ETF.
Your stock sales were ill-timed I would say after today's moves in NVDA & MSFT, especially.
MSFT calls and APLD earnings
So is MSFT, PLTR, SPCX, TSLA. why would you go for QCOM??
Many people know the about the UN's article on the human right to life essentials: water, food and shelter Not many people know the UN listed a hidden 4th essential for human life: $MSFT
MSFT new price target is 665. Could see 550 by next Friday. 3 month chart wants a leg up.
Believe it or not, MSFT is still worth buying at current prices
NVDA and MSFT double top situation kinda got me nervous ngl
MSFT has become one of the most manipulated stock on the market.
I just have some calls expiring Friday... nothing big. MSFT is my big holding as I used to work there. Sold covered calls at 530 a couple weeks ago. Those might get assigned.
MSFT was dead and hit $350 less than 6months ago.
Started on MSFT moooning off a price target raise and now it's going up because of vibes.
MSFT is so gay, just pump back to $530, you fuck
Forget VOO & chill, it's now MSFT-GOOG & chill
God damn. MSFT and META just won’t stop.
What TF happen to MSFT
LOL they told me MSTR and MSFT were going to 0
I am trading in a hotel room and the chick next door is getting banged so hard against the headboard it made me fat finger and buy 1000 MSFT :-(
Why is MSFT starting to dip again
Michael Burry sold MSFT but kept LULU and made it his core long. What
Shouldn’t have sold my MSFT calls lol- Made a good +150% profit on a small play at open, but it keeps going up 😩🥹
All in MSFT in June was an elite pivot
MSFT upgraded target to $665. 550 by next friday.
Friday's price action on MSFT was an absolute scam.
MSFT slangin big green dick
Thought I would never say this but my MSFT calls are saving me right now 🤡
MSFT making moves. Ok i see you Satya!
MSFT is the way fellow regards
"It's Co-Pilot's time! MSFT going higher. Big move coming" ---- Jim Cramer