MSFT

Trojann2

Not every Org in MSFT, sales for instance is large but unable to toss their hat into the ring.

jizz_toaster

You’ve got buyout money to create generational wealth with MSFT calls and you don’t have to work anymore, what is the downside?

Total_Reputation_234

MSFT to the moon!

NerdSlamPo

You guys were saying the exact same thing about MSFT before it jumped 150 points. Google is going to crush, say they have reduced capex by like 1% and the market will love it.

HoneyBadger552

Holy hell. MSFT swinging for the fences of depravity. Calls on VPU

Candid_Cat_5921

Imagine if a huge amount took it. MSFT would be absolutely fucked today. That being said, I’ve been told a lot of juniors today at Microsoft and even some seniors are essentially just AI relays that don’t do much development at all themselves anymore. I guess it’s better to be paid to find a different career then to wait until you’re abruptly laid off.

Andrewj31

As a fellow MSFT employee... my org is never eligible for these

zephyrs85

They can fire everyone as long as my MSFT shares go up in value

Tinderfury

That's a whole lot of salary savings in the long-run. There are alot of dinosaurs in MSFT, cutting the fat there is such an MVP move. Bullish

LabyrinthLayers

That MSFT news is genuinely terrifying lmao we are FUKD

LabyrinthLayers

Somewhat concerning for humans, but bigly bullish for MSFT. The K continues widening..

VeridionMarkets

The Fed decision is probably the least of it. Futures have a hold at around 90%, so the statement itself is mostly priced in. If there’s a move, it’ll come from the 2:30 press conference. The real pileup is Wednesday: the Fed at 2pm, then MSFT and GOOGL report after the close the same day. Their capex guidance will do more to the Nasdaq than 25bp either way. Thursday morning brings Q3 GDP and September PCE, then Amazon after the close. The BoJ wraps up the week on Friday with its quarterly outlook, and after the August 2024 carry-trade unwind I wouldn’t ignore a yen surprise. One thing I watch after big tech reports is insider Form 4s. Most companies close the insider trading window before earnings and reopen it a day or two after, so the week after is when the selling shows up. Most of it is pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sales and means very little. An open-market buy after a bad quarter is the one worth noticing.

Jbull136

“Undervalued” needs a huge asterisk there. These companies have very low P/E due to massive **unrealized** investment gains, keyword unrealized. If you look at Price over Free Cash Flow instead of Price over Earnings it paints a much dire valuation picture: MSFT: 235.40x AMZN: 112.43x GOOGL: 101.88x NVDA: 87.46x META: 70.10x AAPL: 64.35x TSLA: 394.17x Not to mention all those unrealized investment gains are mostly them passing around each other’s shares. So yea quite literally a bubble waiting to burst. All it will take is one of these companies to have a bad quarter or 2 and the house of cards is gonna fall

aemus001

$MSFT rallying

aemus001

Breaking: MSFT buying out 60000 workers

Gorgenapper

MSFT and Google I think

Stonk_Trader69420

MSFT earnings in two days... If in profit stock sinks 10% if target not met sinks 20%...

Slow_Replacement2700

Are we all in on MSFT puts today boys?

GloomyMembership4197

Bull case: \- FED unchanges rates \- AMZN, MSFT, GOOGLE beat and raise + increase capex

Orthoebolavirus

GOOG beat them all to it. Sucked the stock dumped, but great business decision to raise the funds before META, MSFT, etc., dilute, and also prior to the big IPOs that'll siphon off liquidity.

SpicyElixer

“Substantial” revenue doesn’t matter when your expenses are in great excess of said “substantial” revenue. SpaceX is not Google or MSFT, Elon. Sorry. You’re the neoncloud.

shrekbehindu

Well I do not have 25 years of cybersecurity experience but I'd like to pick your brain. To me the industry is moving away from FW towards endpoint security platforms. This seems like something that is being adopted by platforms like MSFT defender and Crowdstrike falcon. Even PANW is moving to this (see Koi). So while MSFT may not be focusing on HW FW, there's going to be a ton of competition in endpoint security, and that's where the puck seems to be going anyways.

Crazy-Experience-678

Throw SPCX AMZN MSFT GOOGL ORCL META in there since they all burning trillions building data centers like the neoclouds.

Misaka9615

because AAPL is great, but its overvalued. GOOGL's bear case is being underaddressed by the market, that being search. MSFT is simply an AMZN with more risk in enterprise software and europe exposure. META is great for the future, and I already have a large position. What does that leave? The company who benefits disproportionately from automation, with little in the case of bear cases other than capex, and whose stock has underperformed even spy in recent years - and it's time for it to catch up.

BluesFlute

Friedman had an interesting article in NYT today, suggesting the development of AI as the second Big Bang. He makes interesting points. Of course he is not a scientist, but, he travels and talks to a great many well informed people. He has access, in a very wide circle, which most of us do not. He is not a fool. He does not address investments. It makes sense to participate in AI growth. I’m just a casual user of ChatGPT. Happy to subscribe, great information. I’ve been long XLK, SMH, MSFT, NVDA

greenpride32

ORCL has over $650b in RPO. About $300b is tied to OpenAI, so even without them it's $350b. OpenAI is well funded and the big contract starts in 2027. So let's say OpenAI does not succeed long term; ORCL will still have collected large chunks of that $300b. The frontier lab exposure for ORCL isn't much different compared to AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT, main difference is those other companies have a larger margin for error. Estimates put VC investment into AI startups at the serveral hundred billions of dollars over past 3 years. I think there is a lot of confidence from the likes of NVDA, the larger hyperscalers, and the big long term investors that even if the currently leading AI frontier labs fail, there will be other parties to take in the demand. AI isn't going away. But the winners of that platform/application layer are still TBD.

GoldBlueberryy

Depends on the fed, midterms, MSFT/AAPL/INTC/AMZN/SNDK/etc this week. Alot going on.

Orangeshoeman

Question for somebody smarter than me These companies have a majority of their debt written off to special purpose vehicles and by design those companies only get money once the leases start and a lot start in 2027 so they currently don’t have revenue. Does this shut down the builds and GPUs to those places and thus a huge cascade effect? Last time I looked up earnings for META, GOOG, MSFT, ORCL and AMZN the debt they had written on books was 475B compared to the 2.7T written to the SPVs that starts coming due in the future

Fast_Reputation_5666

Is googl abt to a pull a MSFT this earnings?

Valkyrie_Skuld

Yeah I think META and MSFT are due for a downtrend

SkillNo1358

No strikes, oil dropping, open to close on Friday was flat and a whole week of negative macro being priced in. Hyperscalers will get some buying Monday to position for earnings especially AMZN on GOOGL to sell those calls and build a position around their current prices. META and MSFT managed to retain most of their ground YTD.

Icy-Sheepherder-7595

42% MSFT at $390 per share 25% VTI at $357 10% ADBE at $247 9% GOOG at $317 6% METU at $19.52 6% META at $595 2% FXAIX at $207 Total portfolio value $145,880

FakeMountie

He's forecasting credit rationing, which I think is a reasonable conclusion. Lenders are going to stop signing cheques for every small "innovator" in the generative AI field. Lenders haven't lost their appetite for this sector of the market. I just think they're no longer willing to finance growth at any price. Companies with independent cash flows can ride that out; companies dependent on perpetual refinancing may not. MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN..? The big players are going to be fine. NBIS, CRWV, IREN...? I don't like their prospects.

Yew_knows

MSFT puts might actually be the play

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **MSFT** | $499.00 (below) | $524.72 | -4.9% | Sun, Nov 1, 3:23 PM ET |

Rameist2

Someone smarter than me tell me if I should sell my MSFT and NOW calls before earnings or hold.

CUbuffGuy

This week is like the Super Bowl for my account. Google, MSFT, Amazon, SKHY, Fed meeting. Let’s ride

Calvertorius

Meaning leave MSFT and into RDDT?

helipad668

Rich gets rich poor get and stays poor. I’ve always said this and it’s always true, MSFT was a no brainer to buy around 370, every single mag7 except TSLA is an easy buy and they all will go back to their ATH, whoever has the most money will make a shit ton just to long into shares of these stocks. The multi millionaire makes millions of dollars the poors with $1k account gets blown up in seconds trying to do options

thesenut91123

SKHY GOOG MSFT AMZN INTC SNDK this week

PhotonicsIsFried

Will MSFT save the market again this quarter?

Ill-Opinion7696

This MSFT triple top looking no bueno

RedTruck1989

While not necessarily a good trade I see you got lucky to the tune of $5,000+ I'm guessing it was related to the AI drops and less about MSFT itself.

Faithful_Husband

I threw all my spare capital (except savings) in a tech ETF.... about a month ago, at the ATH. I'm realizing I can't stomach the volatility. Against my better judgment I'd like to close my positions ASAP and put my money somewhere else.  Not looking to make all my cash back. But do I want to time my exit where I don't leave money on the table. Is the play to hold through earnings season and hope for a "Santa Claus Rally"? The ETF is heavily weighted towards NVDA, MSFT, AAPL. 

Faithful_Husband

I threw all my spare capital (except savings) in a tech ETF.... about a month ago, at the ATH. I'm realizing I can't stomach the volatility. Against my better judgment I'd like to close my positions ASAP and put my money somewhere else.  Not looking to make all my cash back. But do I want to time my exit where I don't leave money on the table. Is the play to hold through earnings season and hope for a "Santa Claus Rally"? The ETF is heavily weighted towards NVDA, MSFT, AAPL. 

ActualCSIdiot

MSFT is somewhat since they pumped on Copilot numbers but it isn’t thaat good. No idea how they got 40 million seats

Moepenmoes

I know MSFT will heavily beat all estimates upcoming week, but I fear the market will go red another week no matter how good the profits are... Feeling like staying cash gang until this year's Santa rally starts

Ok_Cry7572

$MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN and $INTC all report next week, with the Fed decision on Wednesday

Low_Technician7346

yes I just bought more of MSFT and service now

snowballkills

you're right about all that! I do believe that it is not that big a hurdle that it cannot be replicated in that you build user groups, permissions, etc. At least new software companies can replicate these products, but I think like you said, companies are locked into them and think that it is impossible to switch/switching costs are extremely high, when they might not be. In my last job some 5-6 years ago, may sound stupid on my part, probably is, but we had some reports I had to do that were posted on Jira. Those extracting the data, etc. used to created tickets and put the due dates in the title in all mixed formats. The due date entry in those Jira forms was also weird, I explored it a couple of times and there were multiple due date categories in the filter fields...but long story short - it was extremely challenging to find what was due this week or in the next couple of days, and people even went thru them manually and kept those tabs open in the browser...was super messy when it is a very essential field - if you have a task, have a due date and make it filterable. No disrespect to the few good product managers out there, but I think that most of the PM's are utterly useless, most don't know tech and don't know business either. Have never used the product themselves, and are there just to have meetings and be an interface b/w the engineers and the customer (much like the 1999 movie Office Space showed). I have worked with some of the biggest names out there including MSFT, Walmart, gaming companies, etc.

N-_-_

Yeah, MSFT is a little bit tricky. It is relatively balanced compared to other MAG6

Ehh_littlecomment

MSFT is a semi play with extra steps. Their cloud earnings will fall off a cliff if OpenAI IPO isn’t a home run.

daners101

“Hello dear, this is tech support. I see you are have issues with the softwares and we accidentally send you MSFT shares. Please sell and Venmo the money back before we call authorities.” 😆

ChairmanMeow1986

I wanted MSFT to be the one to stake tik tok so bad.

Valkyrie_Skuld

I think it's time for MSFT to die

TardConqueror

I think we have a green week tbh. 3 of GOOGL MSFT LLY AMZN will hit

surmoiFire

Fomc + google MSFT, gonna be fun

walking_in_the_dark_

If I only have hold everything I bought and added since liberation day, like I do with my Index. I would have had significant amounts of more profit on single stocks. I can name a few, NVDA, PLTR, AMD, MSFT, META.. even if the QQQ correct with around 33% I would be flat accounting inflation numbers.

_AT198

Rddt and Iren are new positions for me. Took a risk opening before the biggest catalyst week of the quarter. Rddt is long term. They google deal is up in 2027 and both rddt and google know how valuable the API’s are. The concern about Iren is how much is priced in. They deliver to Horizon to MSFT, but not sure what else is left to give it a boost other than the valuation being strong. What’s your thought on both?

PineappleHairy4325

Retard is short MSFT LMAO

Quiet_Banana_9873

Donald pls bomb MSFT specifically :pray:

TofuPapa

AMZN, SPCX META. MSFT and NOW calls next week. You are welcome.

aemus001

MSFT exposure to AI capex is like 200B, and they have 600B in pre orders (they have not collected on). They'll be fine as long as the AI engine chugs along... they generate 180B in revenue too.. so...

No_Current3675

KLAC LRCX ASML maybe GOOG. Next week after shit bombs on MSFT GOOG capex.

Walternotwalter

Hold and keep buying. When the dust settles OpenAI and Anthropic will be subsidiaries of MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, TSLA/SPCX, or GOOG. These Chinese bots are simply spreading FUD. The sell off is a blip on the road to an SPX over 10K next year. There is no reason to be afraid of anything unless governments try to actually pay down debt and that isn't going to happen. The sell off has amounted to 6% on the NASDAQ and 2.5% on the SPX. These aren't anything.

ButtholeAnalogy

I have a feeling we somehow get a 1% gap up on Monday, pump into FOMC, dump Weds afternoon, get saved by MSFT earnings in the evening, only to get fucked again thurs before open by GDP & PCE

Ok_Entrepreneur_dbl

There were stocks that recovered faster! Looking at an index for recovery is not the way to go. Looking at stocks like MSFT where they recovered fairly quickly!

MtGloomy0420

That’s hilarious…my $NVDA, $MSFT, $AMD, and $TSM shares completely dismantled your theory.

Odd-Web4113

I still love the AI space, but specific parts of it. I do like the memory and certain chip makers and Google/MSFT. I have not gotten into neo-clouds b/c that is where I think the debt will go bad. But, Blue Owl and the likes will just take over the data center from there. So, I think the debt and certainly the no wanting data centers is hype driven by politics and will dominate the next two weeks. Reality is governments will all need their own global infrastructure of data centers and it is a national security need on many levels. This is a multi-year/decade transition. China and Japan have huge plans. So does the US...it is just when Trump says it you have all the politicians trying to take the other side. But, in this case...I agree we need to lead and be in front of this infrastructure necessity.

Mediocre_Gap2236

Well that’s not my job to figure out. Personally I think we’re gonna have a horrible next 5 years I’ve dumped my life savings into MSFT GOOG NVDA SPCX hoping it’ll pay for my early career loss

DrHarrisonLawrence

MSFT and GOOG are producing profits on their capex. Haven’t looked into other Mag7s but if you’re making a profit on capex, you’re going to continue increasing capex. And if you continue increasing capex, neoclouds are typically are typically going to bounce back

Mediocre_Gap2236

How many real businesses worth Trillions failed in the dotcom boom? You realise we are talking the likes of the most profitable companies on earth financing this build out right? Google Amazon MSFT Meta SPCX

zxc123zxc123

I think it's find to own most of the hardware makers or "shovels" type in a commodity boom as long as the investor understands the name of the game isn't really the "long-term" or "hold forever" investing but a trade or short-term investment until the bubble pops. There is no saying that NVDA will end up like INTC if and when the AI capx/buildout/bubble ends, but I certainly wouldn't want to be part of that story. I bought INTC during the GFC lows (not the .COM one) and had to wait 10+ years for a good returned (honestly lucked the fuck out too). So I'm not playing that game this time around even if NVDA has CUDA, has diversified into investments, and is lead by Jensen instead of old INTC ~~bums~~ boomers. My AI longs: GOOG/MSFT/VOO

limpozzman

What will you do when MSFT crashes 

aemus001

Same, i was holding GOOG and AMZN, but decided to divest and just hold MSFT as I believe we'll have a bit of an economic contraction here soon and B2B companies like NET, and MSFT will weather it just fine.

FreelyHumdrumSchism

I’d lean GOOG. The capex ramp is a bet on future infrastructure, which lines up with where I think the market’s headed next couple years. MSFT’s consumer sentiment stuff is noise, it’s really the slower AI spend that gives me pause on their near-term upside.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Itch

Enterprise is stuck to MSFT and OK with paying for their shitty Copilot or expensive GitHub Copilot. They are perhaps the only hyperscaler where AI is paying off. The problem is, the secret is out and I don’t know how much more the stock can run. 

Castopliani

upvote for MSFT

Castopliani

ok everyone GOOG MSFT or AMZN

ButtholeAnalogy

MSFT earnings prolly run up til that then back to dumping

UranusInspector

Bro he literally said MSFT andddddd AVGO.... That's literally maxed out diversifying!

Putrid_Meal_3231

Fundamentals are like bringing a textbook to a knife fight in this market You're better off watching volume and sector rotation for a 2-3 month play, not PE ratios. That said, I'd probably just add to MSFT if it dips more and call it a day

KingGarunas

Puts on MSFT, calls on AMZN

ButtholeAnalogy

They gonna pump it one more week into earnings and midterms. My guess is we see the real dump after MSFT and AAPL report

_Netgirth

Worked on MSFT dip

Rameist2

Holding MSFT, NOW & RDDT calls for earnings. God help me.

acadia11x

No, the big players are already eating this isn’t like .com , there were no big players , they became big players because of .com. .com was diverse therefore it favored a culling of losers and then consolidation in many industries as the way businesses functioned transformed. The big players already exist in the AI revolution , they are the ones driving the bus, they aren’t looking for a pie to eat, they cooked the pie themselves and may offer some crumbs off the table. They have already started partitioning the world based on their respective super stacks. Those vertical integrations you see done by SpaceX, Google is an example of that. AMZN, meta and MSFT also have a seat at this table … those companies will not consolidate but they drive and have already won. Apple tried to create a partnership with Meta , or trying to be a player… but not really they have massive attention economics stack but don’t qualify in the foundation and ownership of the future means of production that the hypers created by taking over the worlds compute. Which only grows with AI and our agentic ultra integrated electronified world. This was a rigged game not a diverse open free for all like .com. If you lose it’s because you weren’t given some crumbs off that table.

Top_Category_2526

I trade from 2018 to 2025, my losing rate was 99%, got tired of that shit Bought a pistol with one bullet, then sold everything and bought MSFT at $380, and it works I didn't sleep for days, depression was at all time high, i was having chest pain, but it works I'm 50% MSFT and AVGO now, i'm tired of buying random bs

aemus001

Loaded up on some more $MSFT and $NET...

greenpride32

I'm not an investor in SPCX and don't look that close at their financials. I used them as an example because their small scale makes it easy to extract the figures compared to AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT. But a 1GW AI datacenter is around $60-72b to construct - probably closer to the lower end when they built Colossus 1 and 2 - and they are combined around 1.3 to 1.4GW. About 60% is compute infrastructure and 40% is physical infrastucture; figure you depreciate former at 5-7 years and latter ranging in 8-39 years. And well there is a ton of room for margin here. Look back to the big hyperscalers AMZN/MSFT - they've been doing this for past decade and a half on CPU based compute - look at their top and bottom line trajectory and share price that followed it. It is lucrative and money printing. The $90b figure could be including other business segments, and also further datacenter expansion beyond what's currently online.

ChewbaccaIsBear

WED we got FOMC and later in the day GOOGL+MSFT earnings, so, A DOUBLE TAP

Particular_Big_3104

Since you absolutely suck at trend reading, you have to stop gambling and simply invest. Buy at least 5 different stock, equal amounts to start and go away. They can be V AMZN SPCX MSFT META JPM SHOP NBIS CRWD GOOGL AAPL etc. It is so hard to lose money over a few year time period with stocks like those. My longest hold is AMZN since 1998 with a cost of $.78/share. Stop gambling, continue investing. There, that's your advice. Anything to do with trying to outsmart the market (like options) is doomed to fail yet again. Please learn.

KingOfTheBritons96

MU and MSFT may be the only two stocks propping up the market

internetsoci0path

is anyone else in MSFT shorts rn

Ordinary_Material175

Wednesday is a huge day. Expect a pump with MSFT and GOOG earnings plus FOMC announcing no rate hike.

Beneficial-Age-9293

I think tech will rebound on MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN next week.

internetsoci0path

i need MSFT to drop literally a DOLLAR

internetsoci0path

MSFT 520 at closeeeeeeee

internetsoci0path

MSFT red by close

internetsoci0path

MSFT red by close btw