Reddit Posts
All BS aside, how’s calls on MSFT looking this week?
Me going into earnings week with $5000 in SMCI, MSFT, & AMD calls
Need to practice option trading with paper money
Who’s ready to burn their life savings this week
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
This is a small dumb little thing but it's HUGE in its Implications - Google Puts Chrome On Windows ARM - Effectively Seeding Chromebooks
Who’s buying MSFT & AMD calls for earnings?
I took too long to move my MSFT stocks and now I don't know if I should wait after the weekend to buy.
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia's Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses 🚀
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia’s Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses
Wall Street Newsletter S03E06: All-time highs are here. What's next?
Poor Man’s Covered Call What it is, why I’m doing it with $30k worth of MSFT calls , and why you should consider trying it. TLDR at TOP
MSFT has now overtaken AAPL in market cap.
Some predictions for Microsoft, Palantir, AMD, Amazon, Spotify and Tesla.
Is it normal for the index funds to be weighted this heavily by mega caps?
What are your top picks for the top performance stocks for this year?
Epic V Continues to Show How Little Risk Exists
Has anyone seriously looked at Global Foundries [$GFS]
$CBDW News 1606 Corp. CEO Attends Consumer Electronics Show (CES) For Collaboration Meetings
$MSFT has potentially created a "new battery" with AI - Musk / $TSLA Says Interesting
Top 10 S&P 500 companies by market cap weighting since 1980. MSFT is the reining champ for persistence.
The true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
A true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
Lumen $LUMN Insider & Big Boys Buying Spree Post Dividend Halt, Kate Johnson & Co. Personally Buying the Dip
LUMEN $LUMN INSIDER & BIG BOYS BUYING SPREE POST DIVI HALT, KATE JOHNSON & CO. BACK THE DIP HARD!
And the AI Show Goes On - GPT 4.5 Turbo Leaks - $MSFT - Its Real And Available -https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai
Taiwan Semi (TSMC) will be 'back to strong growth in 2024' - JPMorgan (holding small position)
Potential for massive shorts/puts tmrw (Jan 4th) after the release of the Epstein List (likely today after market close, Jan 3rd)?
If Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s list is this a great put buying opportunity for MSFT?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on the Jeffrey Epstein Client List sound like a bad idea?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s client list sound like a bad idea?
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if Buffet needs a new #2.
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if buffet needs a new #2.
How would you spend $1500 if you regularly forget stocks exist for months at a time? How do you decide which stocks are to be held and which losses cut?
Keep an eye on $MSFT (potential put money making opportunity)
If you had $40k to invest right now, what would you do with it?
The NYTs is suing Microsoft and I think there is a profitability play on their stocks
New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
Do you ever buy stocks outside of the indexes and Mag 7 near all time highs?
Question regarding this type of Play Option?
The biggest lesson that I've learned in my 10 year investing career.
MSFTs Open Ai will raise funds with valuation of $100B
Mentions
I am not a legal expert, but I know for sure my company allows us to only use Copilot for sw development because of they have a contract with MSFT regarding IP. Google or Apple or any big name company could offer similar service but I guess since they are already using Microsoft products it's easier and cheaper to have one company and use their product. No CEO would ever prioritize quality over legal peace of mind.
Listen to Satya's latest podcast at Dwarkesh. MSFT gave them proprietary MAIA know-how to build upon.
I'll keep my MSFT, thank you. As I did for the last 10+ years.
I believe this is why MSFT negotiated for a *revenue* sharing agreement. They take money right off the top line of OpenAI. However, MSFT also pays OpenAI because they have integrated their service into some of their products. Net-net Microsoft is making more money from OpenAI as of right now.
Top3 best buys ranked in mag7: 1 $NVDA 2 $AMZN 3 $MSFT
MSFT is primarily a B2B business.. their core suite of office products is practically a required subscription for >90% of businesses. Sharepoint is legitimately good. I don’t have the technical knowledge to say if azure is better or worse than AWS or google cloud… but I haven’t seen many complaints… and when a company is building out their tech stack, the immediate need for Microsoft office probably leads many needing cloud services to look at Microsoft. If you invest based upon your own personal preference of consumer goods or services, you should probably just stick to index funds.
I suspect MSFT is getting dragged down by the worries about OpenAI.
No, I think they did due diligence but just saw the new meta for pumping stocks was to announce a deal. Similar to paypal openai deal and target openai deal and soon lululemon openai deal. Too bad it doesn't work anymore. That's why MSFT -15%d. That's why Oracle -30%d. There's no deals, just imaginary contracts lol. Look at CoreWeave's horrendous earnings.
Tell you what ... just go to Gemini or ChatGPT and type into it, "What would the effect on MSFT's stock price be if OpenAI is only worth 40 billlion dollars instead of 500 billion?" You'll get a great answer about the resulting write-down of assets, loss of shareholder confidence, and immediate and massive devaluation of MSFT stock.
If anything, Microsoft will buy the rest of what it doesn't own and its financials will integrate so deeply in $MSFT's books that it would be too difficult and no longer worth tracking. All that would remain would be how much revenue Office 356 is printing
My thoughts are that you probably own MSFT
Buddy….. MSFT is a trillion dollar company ON ITS OWN even without the OpenAi asset. 39% cloud growth is better than 34% from google.
Sold half of my 700c for Dec 12/31 for 3x Sold my other half of MSFT 1/16 500c for 1x Probably will regret it but I’m expecting a pull back next week
... you are completely missing the point ... OpenAI's gigantic (one trillion is what I heard) valuation is *already baked* into MSFT's stock price. If that valuation crumbles, so will MSFT stock. That exposure is gigantic. If OpenAI is worth 40B instead of 1T MSFT stock would tumble into the 300s.
One thing to remember, especially after a big trade, the volatility is what makes you money, not the size of the bet. It is easy to feel like a god after a big trade and increase the risk and get caught with your pants down. Keep the risk small and let the move keep you rich. You always need to stay in the fight. I caught AMD for a little over 40k and I relearded this lesson MSFT. But that's the way she goes!
I wish i had cash to buy Mastercard shares but i'm already in UBER, META, MSFT
MSFT has split many times though, meta hasn't ever split. Is next year the year?
This is why I own AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA and META. I used to own TSLA as well until I found out that Elon was such a douche and well fuck him so I sold that shit.
I didn’t follow any of it. I bought some Alphabet a while ago because it looked undervalued (it’s up roughly 100% since then). NVDA has been too volatile in the past and I hate buying stuff that rallied so much so I didn’t even look at that, and AAPL and MSFT are basically the boring stuff you buy if you have no better idea: never really wrong but they’ll never a big hit, either…
NVDA is more saturated than you think IF AI doesn't fulfill their promises and expansion in near future. NVDA is already running on extreme hypes with contracts and sales that runs long in the future, but that doesn't mean they are actually guaranteed. Companies can break contracts with only partial damages covered if demand / need starts to drop or they can literally go bankrupt. MSFT has said they have more GPUs than they can get plugged in which they currently do not have the infrastructure for. No one is saying NVDA is going to get crushed by GOOGL, we are in *stock* forum talking about is NVDA likely to raise, or even maintain their 4-5 *trillion* market cap in the next few years. So you are saying you'd feel strong keeping a huge position in NVDA today? I don't really know if you are saying what you think you are saying. Everything you said doesn't even begin to justify a 3 trillion market cap, much less a 4-5T one.
Meta still has a better valuation than MSFT
Anyone else thinking MSFT might be due a small bounce.
ask MSFT or ABGO, how much they are charging their best clients for AI, I promise you it ain't cheap yet all the fortune 500 companies and more are gobbling it up. your logic is skewed.
META and MSFT carrying the market today
This always happen with all the stocks many many times over and over. GOOG 5 months ago, MSFT last year, NVDA too last year, etc, etc. They always come up with a bunch of bad news every single time to kill the stock and buy in. I see it as buying opportunities. Don’t buy the news, buy the stock.
Solid day for MSFT after a month of consistent losses
Port update: long IBIT, MSFT, NVDA, GOOG; short SLV, GLD, TLT
MSFT feels like a safe bet for recovery from recent dump, thoughts?
I don't DCA. If I like a stock and I want to put X% of my portfolio into it, I'll buy 5000 shares right then. I bought AMD... which is a bad example because in the 70s, it was obvious. But I DO regret this one. AVGO. I caught that falling knife at 170 and I had an experiance CFA who I'm friends with who... pushed AVGO on me(he also pushed NVDA on me in 2019, so I listen) but he said just watch everything Trump's saying... and keep monitoring. So that's the ONE time recently I guess I did technically DCA. I bought 4750 shares at 170 and then at 140... I went back in for another 5,000... actually, 148. My 2nd is I NEVER follow through on my exit points and I'll often take off a stop-loss if I think it's stupid. Like NVDA... I bought 1500 in 2019, 1000 in 2023 and I said if if it got to 1000. Then I said... if it gets to 143, I'm out. Then it was 180, then 210... and I'm still holding and I got burned on this in '22 when it went from 325 to 120. Fuuck... I also have a 3rd. Since '22, I've been in NVDA, TSM, AVGO, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT and that's about 90% of my portfolio. I'm 100% of the people on here who does NOT think the AI bubble has even started and I'll 100% be the person on here talking about how I was going to retire and raise my kids so I didn't miss time with them and now... I'll be working until 60 like a regular poor. But seriously, 240, I'm taking 20,000 shares out of NVDA and just putting that aside into bonds. I'm only 39, but I don't... want to have to hear ethe "oh, you have time to make it up." I also just cannot sell after those earnings.
Does MSFT 490 Call hit or nah?
$GOOGL has pulled its EU antitrust complaint against $MSFT's Azure cloud after Brussels opened a DMA probe into Azure and AWS. Google says it still backs its claims about “anticompetitive cloud licensing practices,” but will now let the Commission’s DMA investigation run its course, per statements from Google and the EU regulator
Not in my opinion, we will likely see another rate cut, cool CPI, and decent jobs report; and GOOGL is still the cheapest house in an expensive neighborhood (AAPL 37x PE, MSFT 34.5x, GOOGL 31x) 15%+ growth. Technically overbought based on RSI, so I wouldn't open a huge position right now but might be worth getting a little exposure. I plan to hold GOOGL for a very long time though, so based on your strategy you might want to adjust your approach. I'm holding what I have now and will accumulate on any major dips.
bro assuming i'm a luddite when i just don't think meme stocks are anything other than meme stocks lmao QBTS achieved nothing. they have a long history of making misleading or exaggerated claims about their products that even the biggest quantum bulls recognize is a load of nonsense. quantum may very well be on the up and up with companies like IBM and MSFT that are actually generating genuine institutional interest, but the meme stocks like QBTS and RGTI that have no revenue and are dumping their stock on their own investors aren't going anywhere but down from here
bro assuming i'm a luddite when i just don't think meme stocks are anything other than meme stocks lmao QBTS achieved nothing. they have a long history of making misleading or exaggerated claims about their products that even the biggest quantum bulls recognize is a load of nonsense. quantum may very well be on the up and up with companies like IBM and MSFT that are actually generating genuine institutional interest, but the meme stocks like QBTS and RGTI that have no revenue and are dumping their stock on their own investors aren't going anywhere but down from here
bro assuming i'm a luddite when i just don't think meme stocks are anything other than meme stocks lmao QBTS [achieved nothing](https://www.reddit.com/r/QuantumComputing/comments/1j9mx2b/dwaves_claim_that_its_quantum_computers_can_solve/). they have a long history of making [misleading or exaggerated claims](https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/260k3c/dwave_has_courted_controversy_with_its_claim_to/) about their products that even the biggest quantum bulls recognize is a load of nonsense. quantum may very well be on the up and up with companies like IBM and MSFT that are actually generating genuine institutional interest, but the meme stocks like QBTS and RGTI that have no revenue and are [dumping](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Insider+Sale%3A+President+%26+CEO+of+%24QBTS+Sells+806%2C288+Shares) their stock on their own investors aren't going anywhere but down from here
bro assuming i'm a luddite when i just don't think meme stocks are anything other than meme stocks lmao QBTS [achieved nothing](https://www.reddit.com/r/QuantumComputing/comments/1j9mx2b/dwaves_claim_that_its_quantum_computers_can_solve/). they have a long history of making [misleading or exaggerated claims](https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/260k3c/dwave_has_courted_controversy_with_its_claim_to/) about their products that even the biggest quantum bulls recognize is a load of nonsense. quantum may very well be on the up and up with companies like IBM and MSFT that are actually generating genuine institutional interest, but the meme stocks like QBTS and RGTI that have no revenue and are [dumping](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Insider+Sale%3A+President+%26+CEO+of+%24QBTS+Sells+806%2C288+Shares) their stock on their own investors aren't going anywhere but down from here
Set my market buy on UBER and MSFT at open tomorrow. Now i sleep
The problem is MSFT put too much money into OpenAI when Google may destroy it in the near future. Whoever wins the A.I race will take it all. If Google win, then MSFT is fucked like the rest of MAG7 and so far Google is probably the one who have the highest chance of winning the A.I race.
I would like MSFT open to 505 tomorrow please
MSFT has far better portfolio than GOOG. The only difference is they aren’t making their own chip and they don’t really need to anyway
Pick a stock and go back to October of 2021 and then look forward at the price in January of 2023 which was a popular leap expiration then. Also look at the January 2024 price as those would have been issued in the prior month. Some stock were higher after two years but many were not or were not up that much. If you had MSFT you may have been alright. However if you had a lot of SPACs you lost your ass. You can guess how I know that. Go back to 1999 and do the same thing and you will probably find more that didn’t work out as that recovery was much longer. Not sure about the Feb 2009 drawdown.
Anyone in NBIS or MSFT calls for December?
Sooner than 2030. I see MSFT abandoning them and OpenAI struggling to survive by the end of 2026
!banbet MSFT 500 4d
I'll take the bet that's the opposite of most here. ChatGPT is not a chat bot. I can see a vision for what they are doing. I stand by they will be a hub through which you will do a lot for yourself personally and professionally. OpenAI and ChatGPT will likely have multiple revenue streams from ads, to revenue shares for transactions on their platforms, to interchange fees, to license fees, data sharing to other models, outsourced model creation and training for other industries, maybe even video streaming licenses, fees for personal assistants, and I can name more. Google and OpenAI are going after the same market, so I think Google has as good of an opportunity. But I'm not ruling out OpenAI. Especially because I believe that MSFT wants a Google like, consumer facing arm. MSFT missed that market years ago and they want it back with OpenAI. PS. Fuck Sam Altman. Just like the business.
NVDA, MSFT and other big names are just too big. For them to grow at a robust pace, their clients must find the money somewhere. Naturally, NVDA wants MSFT as a client, but they must also help fund growth for smaller firms so that they have demand for their products outside of the megacap circle. As for overcapacity, they must find enough energy to support this overcapacity. It does not look like a near-term risk.
>I think Burry claims is simply NVDA grants the shares as Stock-based compensation recorded in balance sheet using date of issuance price say 8$/share in 2018, while NVDA later has to buy it back at 100$+/share with share repurchase from 2018 till 2025. The SBC is about 20B while the cash spent on repurchases is 100B. All these occur while there isn't much reduction in outstanding shares (i.e. not much benefit to shareholders), thus essentially the cost of SBC is 100B not 20B. Not sure if you fully understand how this works or if you're trying to present Burry's skewed view. But stocks issued for RSU grants do not come from buy backs - they come from dillution. That's why during earnings calls you might hear the term "earnings on a fully diluted basis" - it accounts for all the additional shares that the board has granted that could be claimed in the future, such as RSU's. Simple example, board creates a new pool of 1,000,000 shares of restricted stock that will be used for new hires and refreshes for next 2Q. The stock will be granted if the employee meets the requirements and be part of the float. Or it will expire and not be issued if the employee does not meet requirements. It costs the company "nothing" in the sense no cash was spent - it only has the cost of dilution; every existing share is now a smaller slice. When NVDA buys back shares on the open market, those shares are retired to reduce the float. It's really the opposite effect - it makes each existing share a larger slice. But these are distinct levers and again one is using actual cash, the other is not. Oh and buy the way, this is how EVERY other corporation does it. These comments/tweets are just meant to prey on those who don't have deeper understanding. It's like the circular money argument - NVDA has sold near $400b product in past 3 FY. NVDA doesn't have anything near $400b cash to give to their customers only for them to give it back - so the money is coming from drumroll please... elsewhere. NVDA investments are miniscule in the grand scope. Just as MSFT invested "only" $13b in OpenAI, but valuation gains of OpenAI makes that investment worth $125b now. But hypothetically you can only buy $13b of NVDA GPU and Azure services with $13b - again in grand scheme it's drop in the bucket.
Psychotic grandpa talking about his friend to put 10$ in MSFT back in the day could’ve been worth 10k today he’s crying
MSFT Stock is trading at 29x Forward PE which is very close to Alphabet. I am more confident about MSFT earnings going forward and had sold Google in this run up for Microsoft. OpenAI losing their lead is a nothing burger. Why? Because sooner or later, OpenAI will release something that top benchmarks. Besides, Microsoft has hedged their risk by also adopting Claude in copilot. The money is in enterprise API. Hence, this is a good dip to buy
Every IT colleague and peer I have would jump ship tomorrow on Microsoft and switch to an alternative if one existed. But, it doesn't. MSFT has the enterprise world by the motherboard. There's a shitload of negative sentiment towards the company. But, stonks rise because of a monopoly.
I don’t understand the bubble. Yiu look at individual tickers and find which ones trading at a PE that it shouldn’t. And you will find it was TESLA and PLTR before and it is them today. AMZN MSFT NFLX META are either flat or down compared to 3 months, 6 months and year before. Google has risen but deservedly so. It’s still not overpriced but right priced. Smaller emerging plays like RKLB UNH NVO ASTS across the sector has had significant pull backs. That AI bubble impacts certain companies which went up on OpenAI news and to me that’s not a bubble but just a wrong read on the situation. For me, I am semi conductors completely and anything that has touched OpenAI, for everything else, I am all in. My big play now is 6 months calls on META NFLX and AMZN .. along with 2 year leaps on RKLB NVO and UNH .. and there’s Goog With 2 year leaps but that is at 30% of my account now. So all other are noises. Even if there is pullback, I think GOOG will come back to this.
Can NVDA hit 200 and MSFT 500 by Christmas
MSFT 485c went to nearly zero just want to claw back a few shekels before it expires next week
All I’m asking for Christmas is SPY 700 or 620, MSFT 520, MSTR 150, TSLA 0
All we need to fix the economy is a GOOG-MSFT-OpenAI-NVDA-META $1T deal but the smart guys at the top don’t have the balls to make it happen
Apple MSFT and Nvidia are fucking pinned and they just low volume pump on any pull back lol
BABA with the national security FUD every week. Yes BABA helps the Chinese government. And MSFT helps the US government. Shocker.
Basically your second point. They are so far out, and I think it has more to run. Once TPU and Google Cloud scaling starts to show in earnings, it will demand a higher multiple. If it was just a sentiment shift, I would have trimmed and jumped back in, but I believe the rise in price will be backed by EPS gains. Similar to what we saw with MSFT when it pivoted to Cloud/Enterprise and with AAPL when it pivoted to services. Also Google is on a war footing, and they will not let OpenAI eat their lunch. They have the integrations, cashflow, and balance sheet to compete. I see them as a long term winner in the AI space.
Why would MSFT do that?, they have their own TPUs as AWS, but NVIDIA is still needed. I’m so annoyed people read the news and blindly trust the tesis of people who is not in the industry like the stupid Blurry things about depreciation, etc. 3 months ago same people repeat every day google will suffer from search reduction…
!banbet MSFT $500 2d
MSFT is making its comeback
I guess buying MSFT on Monday was the move
$DE has followed the $AAPL and $MSFT product strategy of planned obsolescence.
Last year I found out I was autistic. Yesterday I bought NVDA and MSFT calls. Where do I sign up for my helmet?
now its MSFT's turn!
MSFT has arguably the most exposure among any of the big tech companies to the unprofitability of AI right now, due to its deal with Open AI. NVDA has plenty of exposure certainly, but they mostly sell chips to the other companies which isn't going to change immediately if Open AI and Anthropic aren't profitable right now. Same with CRWV. MSFT on the other hand needs Open AI to be profitable to gain from the AI bubble, and they have essentially placed a huge bet on that happening. So far, that bet has not paid off. Long term, if Open AI fails, MSFT will likely still make out great, as they will basically scoop up the husk of Open AI and its IP into their company and do it in house. But that's long term thinking. Short term, they have to swallow the losses in AI, which isn't going to help their share valuation.
SPY might flush good on a MSFT pullback
MSFT holding strong tho
Models are one thing but the chips are another. Do you think MSFT is going to buy TPUs from GOOG?
Yup knew MSFT couldn’t keep its gains
MSFT under 500 a share is such a damn steal. It’s pretty much an ETF at this point
Lol why the shrek on MSFT?
People forgot META wrote off billions after failed metaverse pivot, they are just fine. Even if this capex does not yield much return, the likes of Goog, MSFT, META, AMZN will likely be just fine
Looks like OpenAI trade back on vs. TPU WILL TAKE OVER EVERYTHING trade in pre-market. $NVDA/$MSFT up. $GOOG/$AVGO down.
I own now both MSFT and GOOG so either way I’m happy
Ok so money rotates from GOOGL gang(GOOGL, AVGO) to OPEN AI gang(NVDA, AMD, MSFT, ORCL)
Not really, Meta and MSFT got crushed for this issue. Datacenters have such a huge back order and depend on these AI companies to pay up. It's a whole AI supply chain issue, that why everything dropped when OpenAI asked for a bailout
Signs of life for MSFT
MSFT you beautiful fucking boomer stock, 500 today and I will never doubt you
MSFT done playing around. The belt is coming off the pants 👖
I have 500c for 1/16 bought on yesterdays dip but I might sell half cause MSFT always bone me over
Yep I picked up META shares on this dip. Been dca’g MSFT for a while
I put 10k into NVDA, AMD and MSFT, respectively in 2008. Sold NVDA and AMD in 2011 because I was buying a house. I still have the MSFT shares as a reminder of rebalancing instead of closing positions.
MSFT, show them why you aren’t a shit boomer stock and go to 500 today
Burry's been calling this a bubble for years; the circular accounting stuff has been going on for years as well as this point... since MSFT's first OpenAI agreement.
I tried MSFT early part of this year ended up turning in early I think at $516. Good profit don’t get me wrong. It is one of those things, buying LEAPS on a bull year you won’t pick wrong, two bull years in a row? You will be kicking yourself not getting in. Three years tho? Bro, that is what you are betting. Fun money sure, life depending money, no.