Reddit Posts
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT hits positive net gamma exposure right now
I’m rotating around 80% of my MSFT position into META. Here’s my reasoning.
Ban bet Nintendo stock to $16 by EOY and if it hits $16 I’ll donate some switch 2s to children Hospitals
Where would you put surprise inheritance money
Big Tech's Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are distorting the corporate earnings picture
four green days, one red, and the red one is the only one i learned anything from
FOLLOW UP POST - Full Port Microsoft - Undervalued !!! 🚀📈
[LIVE Webinar, Sunday, August 2 at 11:00 AM ET] Top Stocks for August 2026 Based On Artificial Intelligence: AI's Highest Conviction Stock Picks | LIVE Forecast for NOW, MSFT, PLTR
How The F*ck is OpenAI Going to Pay 1.4 Trillion??
There’s no way these ppl at simpler trading make money
Crazy week, what should I do with my remaining calls?
You can guess where I bought GOOGL then MSFT
Mentions
Long NVDA, META, MSFT Short AAPL, GOOG, TSLA
Ay bruh should I liquidate and walk with like $210K gains ytd? Or let it ride? I got like $200K MSFT, $600K semis & related, some boomer shit too.
MSFT Green enough to fuck my puts. ADBE/CRM Give up 5% pumps within an hour and fuck my calls. I hate this shit
I dipped my toe in when it was under $30, but I didn't have the balls to gamble more than $1,000. I'm about about $5,000 on that play, but that's not much to talk about. The tiny bits I put into NVIDIA, AMD, MU, SNDK, WDC, ASML, TSM, NFLX, MSFT, and AAPL have all printed, but I never risked enough to be life changing. If I had dumped my investments into my individual picks instead of VTI I'd have about $5 million I estimate, even factoring in for the plays that didn't pan out. No risk, no reward.
I mean, they're a strong candidate. They havent sunk themselves underwater with over investment in capacity they don't use. They prioritized cost-efficient compute which aligns with how AI is getting used by their customers. Most critically they retained their search dominance through the AI transition, ensuring a long term future at a time where there was a high chance of being replaced. It's still TBD if OpenAI or Anthropic will even exist in 5 years time. I'd argue MSFT did well too. They secured their position with office and haven't lost ground in cloud, and also setup desktop office AI integration to be model-agnostic, and survived AI without significant over investment. They won't go under from a bubble pop, and they're positioned to do well if AI suddenly leapfrogs forward.
Are you seriously suggesting somebody who bought MSFT, AMZN, or GOOG and never cashed out would be worse off than someone selling at any point and buying CPB xD. YES if you don't have to fucking never cash out. It's that easy.
Tbh this kind of feels like MSFT a few months back when it was in the 300s... Made no sense how beat down it was. We'll see if we're right (I'm full port in my retirement account lmao)
Bought MSFT puts too early now my value has shrunken, gonna hold em out
NVDA could crater sure. But what exactly do you think GOOGL and MSFT going to go in the future? AI failures might hit their stock but they will be around for the long haul
Nobody talking about GOOG and everyone about MSFT. ALGOS GOING FOR MSFT pump and dump, GOOG dump and pump. This is to obviously! MSFT puts at open, GOOG calls after the opening dump.
MSFT broke 520 barrier
I'm in tech I can tell you all the software companies especially MSFT are also raising their prices for various cloud subscriptions and apps. They also building more capability that allows them to charge more. GOOG is hitting it big with Gemini for corp and gov.
OP sold all his total of 3 shares of NVDA, MSFT, and GOOGL!
MSFT under $400 was a STEAL. I'm holding this one for a decade
Feels good to be a MSFT holder finally, meanwhile my “safe bet” on bonds has been cooked day in day out
Holy shit send MSFT to 0 I can't even log in to my student email account
Holy fuck Microsoft Teams and the Authenticator are the most dog shit products on the planet, fuck you MSFT just let me fucking log in to my account
"do you think this is just the early stage of a huge investment cycle " The early stage was 2-3 years ago. "companies spending heavily because they don’t want to be left behind?" I think some companies view it as spend or worse than merely "left behind." It's a technological arms race. The issue becomes if you're MSFT and you've now built a fleet of data centers, those data centers are now going to cost money for the foreseeable future whether AI is ultimately amazing for business or not. Every data center is basically creating future orders for all the products in it - updated chips, new equipment, replacements, services, etc. etc etc. All the mega caps have already discussed 2027 spending is going to be more than 2026. "it got me wondering where this starts becoming a concern" A lot of Reddit has spent so much of the last couple of years focusing on "when bubble?" despite no tech company even blinking (not raising spending, cutting spending) yet.
Jokes aside MSFT and Alphabet are solid long term plays no matter what.
Tbh I don't pay attention to PLTR earnings at all. I'm not that much into software sector. Maybe MSFT and maybe GOOG coz I have a huge position there but I'm still looking to see where their capex is going lol PLTR is a solid cash printing machine tho
I picked up $16k of Jan calls. Same shit as GOOG, MSFT, META. All of WSB shits on something I buy the opposite. Market makers want to fuck you out of your money. This is heading up Friday morning.
And MSFT. Crushing sonys balls
FlyDubai launches StabbyPilot to compete with MSFT Copilot
Strong company. But why would MU be the be-all, end-all in the IT space regardless of current- or forward-P/E ? Is it head-and-shoulders better than GOOGL INCT MSFT NVDA SNDK TSM WDC et al ?
These numbers are what you see in MSFT and GOOG, which is insane.
MSFT afterhours price is just being randomized right now
MSFT afterhours chart spiking to $531 for a split second just faked my ass out
**BanBet Lost** — /u/NotPapaElon (0W - 5L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **MSFT** ▲ | $516.44 → $531.93 | +3.0% | 5d | Lost |
MSFT bags helping me out as as well. Time to call my local lambo dealer's wife again this weekend
Sure.. awesome. There ya go. I have plenty of shares of $NVDA, $AMD, $MSFT, $AMAT, $TSM…I think I’ll be okay.
I’ve made about 5k just holding NVDA and MSFT but lost about 8k holding fuckass retard stocks like BULL and ACHR
**BanBet Lost** — /u/GoonSquadCommand (2W - 3L, 40%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **MSFT** ▲ | $498.50 → $523.42 | +5.0% | 1w | Lost |
It's not NVDA that you should look at. As long as these hyperscalers (AMZN, META, GOOG, and MSFT) are raking in profits from their core business, then NVDA holds the top spot. Where do you think the cash flow from these hyperscalers are going? Straight into NVDA's pocket. That's why there is a difference between now at 1999. Back then, there were a lot of hopes and dreams that these companies could turn a profit. Most failed. Right now, there's no hope because profits are reported. So, for the markets to drop, you'll need to hear META, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG tell its investors that capex is decreasing. Personally, I don't think that happens this year or next year. We'll see how things turn out in 2028. Looks like Zuck is just getting started on his version of AI. You can bet they are all still racing to be first.
Remember when everyone hated GOOG and then it doubled, and then everyone hated MSFT, then it went up 50% and then everyone hated META and it went up 40%.
I think the 1:1 yield comparison undersells duration. Treasuries pay a known coupon; NVDA and MSFT are priced for earnings that can compound for years if AI demand holds. At 5.6% the hurdle is real though, so I'd watch whether forward estimates keep rising faster than the long bond. If guidance stalls while the long end stays sticky, those sub-4% earnings yields get a lot harder to defend. MU clearing the bar is neat, but it is also the cyclical name in the list.
I think the 1:1 yield comparison undersells duration. Treasuries pay a known coupon; NVDA and MSFT are priced for earnings that can compound for years if AI demand holds. At 5.6% the hurdle is real though, so I'd watch whether forward estimates keep rising faster than the long bond. If guidance stalls while the long end stays sticky, those sub-4% earnings yields get a lot harder to defend. MU clearing the bar is neat, but it is also the cyclical name in the list.
So PLTR and MSFT is slowly moving to ATH as intended by MM. They drove AMD, META, AMZN just to name a few just to pull them back after. Let's hope AVGO is next in line
GOOG and MSFT pumping. AMZN dumping again lmaoo
Listen very carefully. The play is $MSFT 0DTE calls, 5+ points OTM. This play has been a 5-10 bagger almost every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the last month. There’s usually this weirdly sharp sell-off within 30 minutes of open. That’s exactly when you buy your OTM calls. Then wait for the skyrocket rebound. Look at the daily charts for the last month if you have doubts, it’s incredibly consistent.
The big tech players (MSFT, Google, NVDA . . .) - they have been pumping money into Anthropic and OpenAI in the hopes they would become profitable . . . if they decided this was a dead end that was not going to be profitable I would expect they would be finding ways to secretly de-risk from these investments (finding suckers to buy them out) while still behaving like they would continue to prop up the companies I would not be at all surprised if the tech players were actively pivoting away from this AI play right now. The S&P 500 was 4300 5 years ago - the AI narrative going sour takes us back there
MSFT 0DTE calls, 5-10 points OTM. These have printed hard almost every day the last month. Wait for the morning dip; it always rips hard after a brief sell off.
Jeah same as MSFT, just trust them. I made a lot on them. Now Goog is my next cash cow, just be patient, within two weeks maybe October 1st, the will release the new gemini pro model. This thing is gonna be wicked, also compared to pricing. Goog is running on Broadcoms TPU’s which makes them a hell of a lot cheaper than all the other models that need to rent capacity running on NVIDIA GPU. If goog is working on this thing for over a year, you know enough!
I had pretty much my entire IRA in MSFT at \~$320/share. Liquidated today. Maybe I’m just a stupid perma bear and I’ll be beating myself up over this forever but I think a big one is coming. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon.
Funnily enough September was my second best month this year. Bought the dip on some stocks and they have recovered nicely. Made +32% on MSFT and META and still holding MU at +31%.
I went to LinkedIn and saw some made a post about a new “job”. And then that person liked their own post. TL;DR calls on MSFT.
He was spot on about MSFT and ZM, they were a recent position of his and are up quite a bit.
Also no Satya or MSFT representation, which is interesting
They’re still valued as a whole business and a share is a piece of that. The takeover possibility is mostly theoretical at that size but it’s still real. If the price of MSFT wasn’t $500 a share bc nobody believed in it, I’d buy all the shares, become chairman of the board and institute a massive $76B dividend to return cash to shareholder. Me
ima gay bear position on MSFT rn. these are untested waters for me
I played MSFT perfectly and I'd say I played NVDA horribly, but really the mistake I made was thinking there was anything to do with NVDA today but buy puts.
MSFT 0DTE calls on Monday, Wednesday, Friday. MSFT 1DTE calls on Tuesday, Thursday. Wait for a dip and pull the trigger, 5-10 points OTM. This strategy has printed hard 80% of trading days the last 6 weeks.
I just want you to know, I held these for like 3 months for modest gains, then sold them all and full ported into MSFT calls ant peak despair and 3xed my position. So basically you guys are regarded.
MSFT had great earnings, this is just "macro-economy" going to hell.
MSFT and GOOG bulls got this the worst, those stocks don’t even barely move during a bull run, this loss will be generational🤣
Getting the AI jitters, so I've sold my stock in MSFT and NVDA. Rode up from $25k to $100k combined. Keeping AAPL and a few other tech stocks, but pivoting to oil.
Of the $42b loss, $34b is attributed to warrants issued at lower valuation that now have substantially higher valuation. For example, suppose I granted warrants at $3.4b at the time, and valuation has since surged by 10x. Now my "liabilty" becomes -$34b. But it's a **one time** non-cash charge - it's not as if Anthropic needs to find $34b of cash to reverse this loss - it's not debt. You could almost view it as opposite effect of AMZN GOOGL and MSFT reporting huge sums of paper gains from their investments in Anthropic and OpenAI, even though they didn't sell yet. It's just a matter of keeping proper accounting records.
They are not. The last funding round for both anthropic and open ai were only circular financing deal. NVDA MSFT AMAZN SOFTBANK etc.
GOOG is the new MSFT
Goddamn MSFT, those 525 calls are officially a 10 bagger
AAPL giving it a run for it's money. Meanwhile MSFT bought a hot air balloon this morning
That's the thing. It was only MSFT at $7.7B in net income in 1999. Today, MSFT isn't even first. You've got GOOG and NVDA beating MSFT by a wide margin. Then, you have AAPL on par with MSFT's net income. That's the difference. All 4 of these companies have very high margins. In 1999, MSFT was basically the only one with high margins. In terms of highest net income in 1999, companies like GE, F, XOM, and IBM all had operating margins below 15%. Big difference. There's 3x more cash flow for the current top companies today than in 1999 using 1999 value.
NVDA & META holding green, AMZN/TSLA/MSFT starting to go up while GOOG & AAPL continue to shit the bed
As AI bubble is bursting, many things are changing day by day. Big AI companies delay IPO Many private equity redemptions sky high Debt load of junk bonds sky rocketing $META muse, how much revenue vs hype $NVDA $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN need to fight Rogue agents to keep AI theme, otherwise crash like Enron
They were estimating a run rate of $65B revenue in July of 2026 and to be at $200B in 2028. They also claimed to have their first profitable quarter recently. MSFT reached a 2T valuation at $168B in revenue. The debt obligations here are staggering for sure though and when do they ever go away? Its $500B+ now, wont they be forced to continue to use the latest technology in perpetuity? How do they ever get off the carousel?
Mag6? are still making profits. I mean AAPL's ttm net income was $129B, NVDA's was $193B, GOOG's around $244B, META at $68B, and MSFT at $134B. That's $768B in net income over the last 12 months for these stocks. Market can't drop when there's $700B in net income still coming in.
Why the hell is MSFT like this? When top stocks are down, MSFT is up. But when top stocks are up, MSFT is down.
$34b of that $42b is just a one time charge, non-cash, tied to warrants. Due to their valuation increase, the value of those warrants has ballooned in value and must be reported as such. So let's say their valuation went up 6x, the original issued value would be about $5.6b. You could look at it as the opposite effect of AMZN GOOGL MSFT all reporting massive profits from increase in equity value of Anthropic and OpenAI. Now it makes sense why we saw leaks earlier this year about Anthropic being operationally profitable. At $65b ARR, high margin and $8b in operational costs, well there is a lot of room for profit once you remove the one time charge. It's going to be amusing watching the armchair quarterbacks comment and show how little they understand about basic accounting.
Probably bad advice- At 29 you have a long time horizon. Put 5% in high beta high potential equities, then I would say 15% short term bonds, 50% should probably be the companies with strongest balance sheets + cash flow + long term growth in XLU, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLV, XLY, and XLP. 15-20% boring everyday names you know and trust as long haul companies (ie Amazon, Apple, Coke, MSFT, PFE, etc), and 5% metals, commodities, and currency. Go for low correlation if you can. I think that should add up to 95-100%. Look for dividend payers where you can. If you have sufficient cash, buy one or two of those names at 100 shares and sell covered calls as a synthetic dividend.
They sold that to MSFT years ago. They are building optics and Radio A.I ran to bring 6g live. NVDA backed. Partnered with MSFT and Google. Defense contracts. And 3 billion U.S defense investment. $9.58 is the bottom.
I use GEX for pinning trades on Friday. Pull the real time data through my broker API and had a script made by Gemini do the calculations. The GEX script beat out the old volume/oil approach i had before to determine the strike at which a stock is pinning. As others pointed out vendor GEX is useless because they are based on prior day closing data. After the open that data is useless as MM have already moved. Last Friday for example MSFT opened up 3.5% within fractions of a second books were flattened by MM and the GEX from a vendor would have mislead you. If you dynamically calculate GEX you would have been fine.
I don’t think it’s bold at all, a couple years from now by 2030 I think Google will be $500+, MSFT will be $750+, NVDA will be $300+, HOOD will be $220+
As AI bubble is bursting, many things are changing day by day. Big AI companies delay IPO Many private equity redemptions sky high Debt load of junk bonds sky rocketing $META muse, how much revenue vs hype $NVDA $MU $AMD $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN need to fight Rogue agents to keep AI-vibe floating $SPY $QQQ Watch and wait
All in on calls for SPX. Or all in on puts for MSFT
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> At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don't need any transparency. You don't need any footnotes. What were you thinking? P/S of a few picks: * RDDT: ~11.10 * AMD: ~24.54 * NVDA: ~18.16 * INTC: ~10.55 * SPCX: ~68.49 * MSFT: ~11.18 * MU: ~13.83 * META: ~8.37 (!) **What were you thinking?**
Anyways, if you bought MSFT 0DTE calls when I said to at 11 am market time today, you would have hit an 8 bagger.
I highly recommend against buying OTM and ATM contracts not just because you need directionality but because it's not thinking about the way to capture things properly. If you buy an ITM contract from day 1 you've got a positive delta and have paid very little extrinsic value. You have so much less hurdle. If an OTM contract costs you, and it's 12 mos. out, 3.00 that's all extrinsic at the time so you need to hurdle that 3.00 as a fee for even entering the position. Paying 6.00 for the ITM version that is $5.00 in the money only costs you a fee of $1.00 with the rest being pure value. On top of this you gain a convexity shield, so when the price moves against you it moves against you more slowly than when it moves for you when you're ITM and it's the opposite when you're OTM, you lose value rapidly when OTM and management becomes way too hard. So if you say, "Woah, I was wrong!", the ITM option will always be easier to manage than the OTM. Now, to answer your question directly, personally, no, from experience things almost always take longer than you think they will so you're confident that something will happen in a month, two months, or even 6 months, and it takes two years. Imagine buying a MSFT call last October with a strike of 550, which at the time didn't seem crazy, and even if it was a 2 year contract ... you're *still* out-of-the-money.
I got MSFT puts at $517 sold at $504 🤌
Eevrytime I buy MSFT Calls it gets stuck at a level and will not pass... today it's 510... I can't fukin win!
I played MSFT to fucking perfection today.
Other than MSFT, I don't think any other company pays more than $6B in dividends in quarter
The answer is always MSFT 0DTE calls.
Competition has always been, and will continue to be a challenge for ZM. Not only small competitors, but also bigger platforms. They do have a large enterprise customer footprint, and integrations with Google Meet and MSFT teams, which I thought was interesting. I was impressed with ZM notes and action items after my calls, and believe their $8 billion in cash puts them in a position to buy a compelling startup or two. They need to execute well.
MSFT to 490 today and I cum. I have 80 days on these puts but I'll take a 1 day hold W
Omg my MSFT puts in out on Friday are about to coooook
Because my MSFT puts are printing 🤌
DIE MSFT DIIIIIEEEE (Positions: single January 500p)
So glad I didn’t paper hand my MSFT puts
META is going after MSFT enterprise ai business 👀
MSFT under 510 and spy under 770 at open means I make several thousand dollars today. Let's go!!
Burry just dumped MSFT. Time to buy it back up
If MSFT drops 500 today, it'll cancel out my GLD losses for the day
Sell MSFT wait for gap fill??