Reddit Posts
So it turns out that a year ago the bears were RIGHT: AI is cannibalizing Google Search
GOOGL: Everyone Was Bullish Yesterday, Now Google Is Suddenly Dead?
Oracle is backing off from cash burning. Will more companies follow?
Anthropic S-1 DD: the $80.7B loss is a mark on Amazon's notes, and Broadcom is backstopping $29B of Anthropic's rack leases
Holding both GOOG and MSFT into Wednesday's earnings: the 3 things I'm actually watching for each
Anthropic S1 - solid Growth. Encouraging direction..But ... Extreme Client Concentration and $450 Billion commits: The hidden operational Debt anchor
Anthropic - solid Growth. Encouraging direction...can they be the Google or SpaceX of the market?
Anthropic S1 - solid Growth. Encouraging direction but what about valuation? Inside Anthropic's Pre-IPO Financials
Anthropic S1 - who is ready to Buy the absolute top of the AI hype cycle. Inside Anthropic's Pre-IPO Financials
Dell is up over 200% in a year while almost everyone actually buying the racks has been getting smoked
DeepSeek just open-sourced its production inference engine (running on Huawei & Nvidia) the exact same day DHS banned it across all US federal supply chains.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Forget the distractions, the AI trade hinges on Metas earnings report this week
We have now entered the next phase of the AI super cycle and here are the likely winners and losers
MSFT options collar: Avoiding constructive sale designation and understanding if strategy is sound.
If you had $100k to put into just one stock, what would you pick?
How do you think about holding concentrated positions after big gains?
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Mentions
MSFT: we're positive FCF and look profits *Immediately raises bonds after earnings
MSFT puts will print tonight 100% on that news and fear in the air
MSFT and MU would like a word
Yes MSFT always inverses rest of market.
We need to separate bearish and doomerism - repricing the stock isn't a doom scenario. It's about justifying valuations and we pay a premium for Google because we expect a certain level of growth if expectations are missed then we need to re-value future growth, maybe from 25x P/E to 23x P/E. That's still pretty high, just not as high. And then we may look elsewhere (MSFT or AMZ) for a better future return. You can't command a premium, miss expectations and expect prices to remain stable.
$MSFT Azure (CC) up 48% YoY. $GOOGL Cloud revenue up 103% YoY. But ads..
Loaded up MSFT and Meta when nobody wanted it and sold at the top. Don't be dumb. Time to load Google and Meta now
MSFT fade to red this morning my guess. GOOG put a chill on the whole fkn market.
MSFT bulls cancelling their Lambo order from last night
Now MSFT giving it all back, rough day for me with Google and MSFT being my top 2 holdings.
MSFT just going out to raise a cool 25 billion nothing to see here
Today: Rotate some of MSFT to GOOGL
MSFT opening red is going to be the final nail into the coffin of this market.
Not even all semis fall but MSFT the one that made GOOG look bad is also fuckin flat, I'm gonna lose so much money 🥀
POS MSFT ruined my calls
“Soared” is a bit of a strong word for a 1% gain… if it’s any consolation it sounds like you would have lost on MSFT as well 🤠
MSFT green and you know the rest guys..
MSFT, GOOG, and MRVL all now past lows of last night and market has still recovered 😹
Even if you had MSFT calls they brought it back down so when you sell they a fucks you and everyone loses, those damn MM’s lol, GOOG was the play
MSFT running out of money faster than GOOG 😂
MSFT call holders how we feeling rn
Google is not lowering capex, nor is MSFT you regard. again, wsb regards should do some accounting before commenting example: msft basically did a little accounting trick by extending the useful life of data centers they lease to 25 years and so portion of the costs related went from capex to opex.
Nuking all of their current and future cash to build out the infrastructure that will crush their primary business. Honestly my biggest surprise is that they came up with this plan and not MSFT
I mean I told everyone in the world to buy MSFT below 400 based on fundamentals. I’m up 40%, seems like it still works.
Koreans did better overnights than I expected, MSFT still closing red however
MSFT calls and believe or not, GOOGL calls.
Jeez, even MSFT is getting GOOGL shit splattered on them now despite all that winning yesterday. Black Thursday incoming
You shouldn't read only what you want. MSFT's capex missed WS's expectations 45B vs 50B
Help me understand this. NBIS, no contracts with GOOG (capex etc), stock price drops 8%+ after GOOG earnings. NBIS, HAS contracts with MSFT, who beat earnings, capex positive, etc. MSFT goes up. GOOG tanks. NBIS tanks. Market is a manipulated 🤡
I mean, CAT, also AI adjacent somehow, just dumped on their earnings. Seems like the indicators be indicating here and the market is going to tell us the AI slowdown has arrived before these companies will. (and frankly they’re hinting at it) These were honestly complete garbage earnings besides cloud and that’s at risk if AI isn’t going to keep growing. For now I’d say the answer here is it is going to toil around for another Q or two before people give up completely and then that’s where there will be an opening for a MSFT summer earnings type +10% or higher surprise.
Imagine if you had AMD, GOOG, and MU calls and then MSFT puts 😅
For the last three months, when everything else was up, MSFT was down. At the present, it's just the inverse machine.
Just like how there was no reason for MSFT to be down when the others were up?
Something is fishy. So MSFT is getting "revenue" from openAI. GOOG cloud grew but they're paying Samsung to put Gemini in their devices. Nvidia "investing" on other AI companies. Soo the biggest "customer" of AI companies is other AI company.
If MSFT fades to flat/red before open I'm crashing out
I’m so confused Google cloud is growing three times that of AWS and MSFT - muse just told me but it’s down
Puts as usual… GOOG is down, semi down, AMZN down, MSFT can’t save the market by itself
MSFT up on earning because Azure growth accelerated to 49% YoY, while GCloud in the last few years has gone from distant third to nearly neck and neck w Azure, and over the next few quarters I s about to blow Azures doors off (103% vs 48% YoY growth on ~$30B quarterly) and if GCloud can keep up even slightly elevated growth projections over the next few years, bouyed by their half a trillion backlog, they could potentially even catch or pass AWS too in the next few years
MSFT is no longer SAAS apparently
I would say MSFT is best positioned for AI. AI is a bigger benefit for enterprise than the consumer. Anthropic has proven this. Alphabets model is primarily consumer focused whereas MSFT is king of the enterprise. So basically I think MSFT is the big beneficiary of AI, not GOOGL
Hoping it pulls off a MSFT though
Earlier big AI companies slow down rogue AI agents Then NeoClouds bonds collapse, crash $CRWV $NBIS $IREN etc Now big clouds $GOOG $META $MSFT $AMZN big spending, negative cash flow, big debt load pain at higher rate When theme fade, dominos fall fast, this time not different.
Wait no I had it backwards, MSFT raised it for this fiscal year, and guided a lot higher in stages. Google stayed the same for this fiscal year and raised it for 27
Yeah that’s for MSFT right? Did they also say something like accelerating this shit to 50B next quarter? Or did I misread that?
Did GOOGL, MSFT miss their CapEx or did they lower their CapEx? There’s a difference between the 2, which is it?
amazon sells like server space and like databases, they didnt invest 10's of billions in failing ai companies. im not sure why google failing means amazon will like MSFT is like google and they did good so like where the logic?
that place used to be occupied by the MSFT bulls and look at them now
Tomorrow will be the epic battle between MSFT earnings and GOOG earnings for the heart of the market
Jokes on you, I bought 50% MSFT, 50% Google, so I play both sides and always come out on top.
I will sell GGLL tomorrow for profit, but will hold some GOOGL as long term. I left MSFT when it was $350 range, now it is 550 range. I do not want to miss GOOGL like taht.
Stocks are volatile. My GOOGL holdings are down 18%, MSFT is up 39%. I hold good quality companies, so I’m not worried about price fluctuations.
Hahahaha. I was about to buy calls and then I inversed myself and bought MSFT instead
MSFT still making bank and came in under capex but that stock seems to regularly get shit on.
MSFT not getting as fucked by AI
It’s getting too much now and everyone knows the stupid cloud growth from MSFT and Google is just Anthropic and openAI. I think Anthropic IPOs and we see this unravel. The AI labs aren’t making any money for justify the spend
That sweet sweet MSFT at 360$ was a nice dip
Bill gates was a pedophile and frequently visited Epstein island with Clinton. That affected the $MSFT during the downturn.
Thinking buying MSFT calls now :hmmm: :hmmm: :hmmm:
MSFT $600 Tomorrow? Should I sell my MSFT calls at open or hold them
MSFT - short, medium, long term GOOG - medium and long term
I am bullish on all, recently added DRAM, and long time holder of AMZN, MSFT and NVDA. If you were to give me the choice, you can be all in on DRAM or, all in on AMZN/MSFT/NVDA at equal weight, and cannot sell for 5 years, I'm without hesitation going with the latter. Ther latter group's success is driven by IP and products and services that you could potentially replace, but at lesser quality. The former group is selling commodity products and just taking advantage of bidding war markup to create their margin. One of these models has already created decade or decades of dominance. Other is riding a roller coaster of supply and demand dynamics. Now I'm invested in DRAM because the party isn't stopping for the next 2-3 years and potentially even more. But the underlying strength (or lack of) of the company is the reason why you see different valuation scale across the 2 groups. I plug RAM or storage into industry standard socket/connector and it works, doesn't matter which brand and it's equivalent performance. I swap NVDA AI GPU for AMD AI GPU, and well I lost 2 decades of CUDA advancements, and the very framework on which AI was developed past decade.
I don't know what it is you're asking that isn't addressed in this line > So MSFT and GOOG spending less than expected -> sign of deceleration even if the capex is going up.
What was sucky about Microsoft earnings? They exceeded expectations on top line, bottom line, and Azure growth, and came in nearly $1b less on capex expectations. In addition, unlike Alphabet, they were cash flow positive and reiterated on the call that they will remain so through FY27 ( which for MSFT ends 6/30). These all sound pretty good to me--got the cash, got the growth, and margins are they the roof on revenue acceleration, all while they're keeping expenses in line. What am I missing?
MSFT with the 3.5 inch pp but at least it’s hard
Looks like MSFT and apple going to hold SPY
as a true regard, I sold MSFT in the first half of 2026 and bought GOOGL in the second half of 2026
Really tough after the price action today to recommend any AI stocks. Sentiment completely flipped negative on the low capex numbers out of GOOG and MSFT. It's tempting to think "this is super undervalued, Buffett would love it here" as if you've found a gold coin on the beach. Careful.
so let me get this straight Google has "invested billions into AI" in the sense that they're just creating hardware for other companies to buy, to use AI? NVidia has "invested billions into AI" by also just making hardware? MSFT has "invested billions into AI" by... building hardware? Am I a retard? Is someone fucking with my medicine? How does AI turn a profit for anyone, ever?
Resist MSFT, resist, dont do it
hats off to whoever shorted MSFT at $362
$MSFT gonna tank back to 400ish range like last earnings...
Please tell me MSFT will have a huge sell off tomorrow. Why didn’t I choose Goog for puts 😭😭😭
I'm so glad I hedged for this dump with MSFT puts guys
First derivative tells you the rate of change. That is, the growth rate. Is capex growing? Yes. Second derivative tells you the rate of change *of* the rate of change. Or the acceleration. Is growth rate accelerating or decelerating? So MSFT and GOOG spending less than expected -> sign of deceleration even if the capex is going up. It's like if you had a company and your revenue 10x'd in year1, 10x'd in year 2, and so you were planning and preparing for a 10x in year3. But then you actually 5x. Oops! Second derivative. Your revenue is still increasing but it is now increasing at a decreasing rate.
You’d prefer a -2% return over prior year versus a positive 17% return ? I mean even if GOOG drops 9% tomorrow it’s beating MSFT in 1,2, 5 year returns. At 10 years Microsoft is beating GOOG. Not exactly a bad choice either way but short term MSFT is not the better looker
No. I inversed myself and bought MSFT calls.
GOOG PE looks low due to mark to market gains on investments. When you exclude and normalize the PE it’s same as MSFT.
Triple combo of MSFT slowing down cap-ex, googl missing and samsung missing lol. Super-fucked.
And then GOOG announced earnings. Sadly, the great news from MSFT doesn't appear to have undone the damage from GOOG earnings. Red day tomorrow!
Anyone actually surprised Google tanked and MSFT mooned!?
Great numbers and crucially they also guided that they expect cash flow to also remain positive in 2027!! Exactly what the street was looking for and the opposite of what happend with Google. This basically guarantees that we will see further ATHs for Microsoft in the near future while Google will likely consolidate for a while. Still bullish for both but happy to own more MSFT as of now.
Fuck my goddamn life. Of course I go balls deep in google and that shit drops. How the fuck does a MAG7 multi-trillion dollar company drop 10% in the span of an hour? Moving like a goddamn meme stock because I bought into it. And of course I get fucked every earnings season. GOOGL fucked me today. AAPL fucked me last earnings. MSFT fucked me the earnings before that. Literally I'm 0/3, whatever I touch fucking dies dude.
You could have just gotten MSFT instead bro( jk jk I got super lucky after a really shitty day man)
I'm buying NBIS options because of MSFT. NBIS is a cloud provider for Microsoft and they just delivered a compute tranche to MSFT. Also they seem to move up after earnings. https://preview.redd.it/3bnei4aupayh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=d709016a52cac00a858394f4ced454a099899b3a
His break even for selling puts. But what if the buyer sells before it can recover? Then he loses everything. Stock holders just have to sit and wait. Thank god I stayed out of this one all together lol. MSFT and GOOG have been fuckinh me a lot lately. I finally made some good money off both earlier this year than said fuck you to both.
MSFT is replacing their employees with AI, improving their margins. I also don't have any personal opinion about the performance of GOOGL in the next few years. I'm talking about the immediate future in the next year or so. I'm not investing, I'm trading.
MSFT is still in dumpster fire, their game division is pretty much clean
Simmer down clown… Their ad revenue was off this quarter. Not cuz their business model is broken but they haven’t figured out how to monetize their AI search tools yet. However searches overall are up for a 5 year high and Google Cloud smashed expectations, 103% year-over-year to $30.71 billion, beating estimates. I’d be more concerned with MSFT laying off 27% of their workforce and the knowledge drain / gap that’s gonna happen when they realize AI models aren’t the end all be all just yet. But hey short term gains for ling term pain is the road map MSFT decided to take.
MSFT :pray: :pray: please don’t fade bro its my grocery money
No joke, DUOL will outperform both GOOG and MSFT next 3 years
MSFT dying down from 5% LMAO bols
Remember META was up like +7% AH after earning then the next day it dumps hard? Lol MSFT is next