Reddit Posts
We have now entered the next phase of the AI super cycle and here are the likely winners and losers
MSFT options collar: Avoiding constructive sale designation and understanding if strategy is sound.
If you had $100k to put into just one stock, what would you pick?
How do you think about holding concentrated positions after big gains?
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT hits positive net gamma exposure right now
I’m rotating around 80% of my MSFT position into META. Here’s my reasoning.
Ban bet Nintendo stock to $16 by EOY and if it hits $16 I’ll donate some switch 2s to children Hospitals
Where would you put surprise inheritance money
Big Tech's Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are distorting the corporate earnings picture
Mentions
Yeah that’s my thought. If they can’t get compute power until the 30s then MSFT is pulling out. Pretty straightforward
MSFT pulling out of the Nscale deal MSFT prolly will go up, but everything semi and everything related to data center build out prolly gonna tank
How do you reach the conclusion that demand isn’t there from MSFT cancelling a contract because MSFT wants the supply earlier?
I mean if they had actually gotten the power supply, MSFT wouldn’t have walked. It’s as easy as that.
Especially if MSFT wants a site in Europe
the CoreWeave 2031 bonds over 15% is the number I'd keep an eye on. if that keeps widening while the hyperscalers barely move, it's a funding problem for the levered names, but if MSFT and GOOG spreads start moving too then it's a lot bigger
It kind of is. Just like the deepseek drop, CXMT suddenly announces that they’re going to produce RAM and so semiconductors routed. But there’s other factors as well. Interest rates / bond yields. AI company profits and their borrowing. Inflation. High tech valuations. The rest of the economy. But build out is continuing… Yes. Lots of earnings reports starting this week so let’s see what happens. I’ll be watching a few closely, META, Google, Hynix, WDC, SNDK, MSFT. I’m hoping for a rebound. Not sure if this is the end just yet. End of November NVDA reports.
3 biggest positions are tied META, MSFT and MA (all bought before the run ups)
I mean GOOG and MSFT are both doing the spending not gaining from it so that's kind-of a moot point and NVIDIA even if sales drop %70 of expected income they are still gonna be making more by 2027 than they were last year. I also just don't see NVDA's sales dropping that much long term even with an AI CAPEX decline
Holding around 40% of my portfolio in GOOG right now. After buying META and MSFT with leverage before they both ripped (extremely lucky degen).
Are the biggest scalers even using debt for the buildout? Pretty sure MSFT GOOG amzn are just using cash to fund this
The chip stocks are all posting record revenues, as well as hyperscalers like MSFT GOOG …. I honestly don’t know why everyone’s focused on the likes of coreweave whose market cap is like .1% of these giga hyperscalers lol
I'm balls deep in MSFT leaps from earlier this year, no ragrets.
Nothing wrong with Coreweave. Their customers are MSFT and the like. They will easily get through the interest rate hike and stock will fly back. Meanwhile Democrats are putting oil on fire to bring the stock market down.
GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, TSMC, MU all long-term hold
GOOGL, MSFT, and NVDA. Yeah I'm basic, I also don't care.
AMZN, MSFT and DGXX. You could literally just go liquidate DGXX and get a 150% return it’s wild. Just in cash, stock and unused data center equipment they have $353m against a $265m market cap and that doesn’t even include their tier 1 data centers in NY, their small tier 3 data center in Alabama and their powered land in Alabama
MSFT doing well if you didn't buy ath
I’ve already accepted that AI has invalided about 15 years of technical experience I have and what made me a highly paid accountsnt, but yes I am a candidate subject to be laid off. But I am also hot shit with execs right now because I keep up with the latest AI development, experiment with AI agents in my spare time, and push things to the limit with AI implementation at work, so I’ve just been doing AI facilitation and training sessions in the new found time that I have. I still do my old role, nothings changed from that front, other than the fact that I’ve automated it all with Python/SQL scripts and connected to our systems with MCPs for end to end automation. I just monitor that the agents I’ve set up doing that flow are working as intended. I’ve full ported my savings into tech about 6 months ago , GOOG NVDA MSFT SPCX and SNOW Once the mass layoffs (including to me) happen these shares should also reflect the corresponding shift in value.
You missed it. It’s not META or GOOG or AMZN that you should be looking at. Those three align with MSFT will always be able to borrow money when they need it. Heck, Berkshire is lending to GOOG. You should be looking at NBIS, ORCL, and CRWV. These are the ones that scare the market. The question is whether their revenue is going to match expectations. If they do, then the AI trade is bouncing back. If they don’t, then that’s the issue. Who’s paying these folks? The hyperscalers that have enough cash flow from their quarterly net income to fund the whole thing.
Stop investing in penny stocks if you can’t afford to lose most of your investment. Invest in shares you’re confident will be higher in the future. I invested in Mag7 (AMZN, AAPL and MSFT) plus Mastercard and Visa as I’m confident they’ll continue to grow. I had my fingers burnt investing in penny stocks but fortunately didn’t invest too much in them
Week was brutal, all across the boards. I’m down as are lots of others. I’m day trading successfully, focused on beat down blue chips like GS, MSFT, CAT. I day trade options only for leverage, my daily average has been a solid $3,000 a day. Still, this infusion hasn’t upped my overall account. unfortunately I bought CALLS ITM with Jan expirations when sndk was bouncing around 1600 to 1650. I’ve ridden them down to - $90,000 in negative equity. Smaller positions, calls in MU, TSLA.SPAX, STX, ALAB, NVDA with plenty of negative equity. No, I didn’t grab highs. Has the bubble popped, I don’t agree. I see shorts, robo negative articles, day traders really f&$king the daily movement up. I’ve also seen large block trades coming in at interesting levels, the highest were at $1650 to $1600. My bet is by March ‘27, there will be people in here bragging about stock or calls they bought in the $1200 - $1300 range that by March will be huge in the money. SNDK may dip to $1000 again, 1150 to 1200 more likely. I’m buying put options for me day trades, no calls until I see those lower numbers. Loading up (stock) on GS, CAT, MSFT and NVDA.
Wait for MSFT to dump 40% then full port
I’ve been taking profits on the pumps and exiting positions to harvest loses where reasonable. When it dumps I reinvest where I can. It hasn’t gone perfectly I have 230 shares of AVGO and I’ll definitely half to lose 25-30% of that just to have safety cash. During this recent crash I averaged down: STX, MU, NBIS, MP, NVTS, APLD, and a bit of NOK. And sold AMD and some MSFT to buttress my cash. Along with some random small positions that weren’t doing anything except tying up cash.
NBIS has 8 billion in debt and 8 billion in cash….. 40 billion in contracted revenue from MSFT and META.
So if you have a million of VOO. You can’t sell Walmart to buy target. You have that ability if you directly own the stocks. The find manager will have a methodology, Coke Pepsi, Walmart target, Apple MSFT, whatever. When there is an opportunity they will sell the one down and cover the allocation with a similar stock from the correlation list. It isn’t magic, it is just taking advantage of the tax code. The allocation will track sp500 or whatever, and have the ability to harvest losses. It is too much work for a novice to do manually.
You can have actively managed SMAs. Imagine you own an S&P SMA. Let's also say you already own 1MM of MSFT stock. So number 1, direct indexing is also about screen outs so you screen MSFT out of your SMA as you don't need more. Then to your question let's say there's a correction in NVDA, GOOGL, AAPL, and say AMZN. 1. Sell those positions at a loss. 2. Buy an ETF that has the loss positions at a decent weighting so portfolio direction exposure is roughly the same. 3. Wait 31 days. 4. Sell the ETF, and re buy the individual positions. Signed, CFP in the industry with years of SMA experience.
The chips are staying valuable longer than people thought. The fear last time was people said they would be obsolete in 3 years. h100 gpus are now going on 7+ years of operation and still producing income. Anything after the initial payback period is profit. NBIS can pay back a data centre in 22 months. 22 payback months and you have another 60 months of profit. NBIS doesn’t not sell to anthropic and open AI. They sell to META, MSFT, and they won’t do another hyperscaler contract. They have now pivoted to selling their compute on the open market and to companies that will pay a premium. New AI labs, hedge funds, and they’re all pre paying for the opportunity to use NBIS. If you think that Open AI and Anthropic are not going to make it then CRWV, AMZN, MSFT,AVGO, ORCL are in for a lot of pain. Do you think those 5 companies are run by stupid people that don’t know how to run a business? Some of the greatest money compounders in the world wouldn’t make these massive bets that can kill the company if they weren’t very certain they could make a massive return. I trust them much more than any fear mongering person on Reddit.
Well the last time this happened $MSFT earnings call perked the market right up. Considering that $META has an earnings call next week and they just launched Muse, maybe that will save the market.
Look. I swung QQQ 711p MSFT 527p CRCL 82p which all went 5x to 10x but I sold them all . Then chased calls all day. Some days just are self inflicted
So you’re saying that training will still consume more compute than inference? Nvidia is cooked and your bias shows. Get out at the top. The future is inference and nvidia can’t compete with custom chips. Your whole argument on how only a handful of companies use asics is biased bc only a handful of companies are buying nvidia en masse. All nvidia biggest customers google MSFT xAi Amazon meta are all on the custom inference train. You’re talking out of both sides of your mouth.
NVDA RDDT NFLX MU HD Those are my picks from that list. You missed GOOG and MSFT.
If you had to buy one Monday morning: GOOGL or MSFT Why?
I sold all of my MSFT and NVDA and bought SCHD. 30,000$ 2 days ago.
$MSFT did last time and it got it's pop out of the doldrums. Not sure how much it'll matter this time around unless Street thinks it's all of a sudden decelerated from then. They "want" you to believe earnings will be a savior lmao.
Buy and hold. I had good success with big names like MSFT, MA, S&P500, bank stocks... go for the 20% yearly returns instead of gambling!
Then don't buy it. Keep watching the train fly by. If this company is good enough to be invested in by MSFT, GOOG, NVDA, and AMZN then it's good for me. These 4 votes of confidence/companies have the highest proven ROIC of companies. These are proven compounders of wealth. So. Here's what I can safely assume. These four exceptional companies saw investing in them as more rewarding than investing in themselves. And they are, again, the greatest compounders of wealth of all freaking time. Reply all you want. I do not care.
Listening to Richard Campbell. Kind of funny that OpenAI's first real cash injection from MSFT back in 2020, was $1B, with agreements to spend almost all the $1B on Azure services.
lol so glad it stayed down today, I took a $60,000 loan that’s pending and will be ready to deploy on Monday. Have to decide if I want to full port RDDT, SMCI, MU or MSFT.
#how much each stock dropped from its 52-week high: #SPY: -2.5% #NVDA: -13% #GOOG: -17% #MSFT: -17% #AMZN: -14% #META: -10% #AVGO: -34% #MU: -30% #AMD: -20% #If SPY drops 10% these stocks will all die LMAO🤌
Your strawman argument is missing the point. * AI is useful and valuable and is here to stay. * The level of over-investment in LLMs and data centers represents a huge bubble. Two things can be true at once. The internet worked out great, so did railroads. Both were accompanied by speculative bubbles. Positions: (long GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA) - You lose more money trying to anticipate the crash than during the crash itself. https://preview.redd.it/gkcntxvwuvvh1.jpeg?width=1796&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b8a76b280ebc7701cceee20033c32ed9bb527ab
Nvidia’s biggest customers are the same 5 people I listed. OpenAi and Anthropic’s debt to asset ratio is absolutely horrendous. Meta, spacex/tesla, and amazon/google are the other 3. Not sure who spends more between amazon or google. Nvidia chooses not to tell anyone, but their top 5 customers make up 80%+ of their revenue. All of these companies are now cash flow NEGATIVE and you will see that once again next week and the week after for earnings. That means going forward their debt to asset ratio will keep rising. Nobody is saying Amazon, google, or meta will go bankrupt. It is extremely likely OpenAi and Anthropic will, or likely just wont exist in 5-10 years. It’s pretty likely Google absorbs Anthropic and MSFT absorbs OpenAi in my opinion.
Ride it out. MSFT has been strong throughout the dip
Boys I’m up 110% on my MSFT weekly put it’s already itm do I sell or ride it out
Had QQQ 711p MSFT 527p CRCL 82p that I swung and sold all this morning 😂
Maybe. But government bailouts don't occur until the brink of death and there's no other option. What's this mean for neoclouds? Nothing good for the equity holders. More likely: GOOG, META, MSFT etc. pick up the assets for pennies on the dollar. Secured bond holders might get something; depends on the recovery rights. Bailouts aren't for equity holders. They're done to prevent the worst case economic ramifications. Job losses, financial system instability etc.
I told you regards to buy MSFT puts (again).
Waiting 10 minutes for Microsoft to update. Puts on MSFT
> Like if it happens, cool, if it doesn't, that's fine, then it didn't matter anyway Point is if you held conviction in the stock, why would you not buy it? And if not buying it, what are you buying that's better? I've been in the markets for over 25 years. So many people were afraid to buy the likes of MSFT AMZN GOOG AAPL because it "had already gone up so much". Yet these companies continued to grow revenues and profits for 2 decades and going, and the share price followed. People are even afraid to buy SP500 when it is near all time highs. Yet look at the chart; you might get lucky on some dips, but for the most part you are chasing the price up over time. And reality is when the markets are bleeding red a lot of people are afraid to buy.
since you don't know what the terms of the merger would be, all you can really do is add their current market caps together. SPCX $2T TSLA $1.4T $3.4T combined, which would put it in 4th place after MSFT. Weighting would be around 4.75%.
nike the new fake out indicator, just like MSFT was during may-june. AI up, retail down today 100%.
I reopened MSFT puts when it was at 539 yesterday and I'm happy to report it only goes up now
That’s incorrect. MSFT has better credit rating (so lower interest) and its equity is cheaper because its volatility is lower.
Not everyone. The wealthy made $$$ and know when you pull out before the retail public is left with garbage tickers. Meta and MSFT and Google will just shrug this off.
What is this bizzaro world market where RDDT and MSFT are green while everything else is red!
NVDA has a lower cost of capital than MSFT.
CoreWeave is one of Nvidia's largest customers just like SPCX, ORCL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG. No surprise
See this is what many retail don’t understand. You think there’s some irrational bubble. It’s not. The market is acting VERY RATIONAL. Look at MSFT, META, GOOGL and AMZN. They are going up generally. The neoclouds like CRWV, IREN and NBIS are way down because their credit spreads have blown out. Those are all very rational moves
Made a table (gemini) and added more interesting stocks for the comparison: | Ticker | Market Cap | Q2 2026 Revenue | EBITDA | P/E Ratio | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **TSLA** | $1.48T | $28.24B | $1.90B | 336.67 | | **WMT** | $957.29B | $187.94B | $12.50B | 42.71 | | **005930** (Samsung) | $1.02T | ₩171.50T (~$126B) | ₩105.50T (~$77.5B) | 9.34 | | **MSFT** | $4.00T | $64.70B | $51.63B | 30.06 | | **MU** | $1.03T | $23.86B | $16.50B | 12.53 | | **NVDA** | $5.57T | $96.20B | $64.86B | 27.46 | | **GOOGL** | $4.18T | $119.80B | $173.16B | 17.54 | | **PLTR** | $482.94B | $1.94B | $1.19B | 170.86 | | **SPCX** | $2.02T | $7.81B | $3.54B | N/A (Private/Loss) | Samsung with the lowest PE makes sense due to lower foreign valuations.
If I remember correctly, weren't you the one who told me not to get Nike puts before earnings and instead invest in Nike if it fell because you saw a bigger upside that way? Your reasoning is always so sound whenever we zoom out 😄 I'm sure AMZN and MSFT will get their boost too!
Yeah you doofus, it’s one year old ofc it has debt. It will buildout its data centres and contract it out. MSFT and META have signed 40 billion in revenue. NBIS market cap was 45 billion. It’s the brained oversold position below 200
The speed of recovery was a nice surprise. I thought AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN would get a bigger boost instead of the retail sector. This was meant to be a 3-6 month hold and reassess. I’ll probably hold another few months
No but it has 45 billion in contracts form MSFT and META and it’s market cap was 50B so go figure
CAT GEV down because they’re part of AI infrastructure? But MSFT GOOG and IBM are in the green? Fuck this bipolar market.
#I love how every time I put a bid order for a contract its price immediately jumps $100 and every time I put a sell order for one my contracts the price immediately drops $100 even for super liquid tickers like SPY, NVDA and MSFT. LMAO🤌
Read the headline of the gartner report. It says neoclouds will cease INDEPENDANT operations. Which in my eyes translates to them either being acquired, or consolidated. Which is usually what happens when a new industry sprouts up out of nowhere. please see automobiles, internet, etc. So what is the downside of these companies being acquired by the likes of AMZN or MSFT? those companies have pockets, and will pay a premium
neoclouds are being mispriced. The neoclouds with current contracted power access are going to make bills....MSFT started financing some project and paid for something like 25% or the GPU's for whatever data center. That % is now approaching 50%, and sometimes even higher. This is because the hyperscalers understand that the access to power. The current access to Gigawatts of power, is where the bottle neck is going to be in short order. Memory, chips, etc....nobody will care in 6 months when there is not enough power to power all these fucking chips....neoclouds have the power
Friendly reminder NBIS has 40billion in contracts with MSFT and META. Current market cap is 50 billion.
Zoom out on MSFT and it was a falling knife and now look at it. This is exactly when you want to buy, it’s underpriced.
Out of the companies I listed: $NVDA, $TSMC, $TER, $META, $ASML, $MU, $SNDK, $MSFT Name one that is currently "making less money than it is spending" ? Or "not making money".
What? MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL and META are the ones spending the bulk of the CAPEX on AI and most of it is paid via their cash flows. Sure, they have also issued bonds to fund some of it but nobody has a problem letting these companies, with the largest moats in human history, borrow money
i need to start trading MSFT, since everything I do is wrong.
let me guess... MSFT is green?
MSFT is an absolute juggernaut
fair point on their core businesses, but you're ignoring the wild inter-company financing loop happening right now. Big Tech and NVDA are literally investing in each other and the same 4 AI startups for the 10th time. NVDA funds a startup -> startup buys NVDA chips & rents Azure cloud -> MSFT & NVDA report record revenue. on paper it looks like organic structural growth, but underneath it’s insane circular leverage.
I know so does the market;) just buy MSFT puts when MSFT jumps at open and thank me later 👋🏻
But what you should actually want to do is not even touch MSFT until like 2014, and use your money the preceding 14 years on things that will actually make money in the meantime
Changes to skilled worker immigration could create hiring friction for Microsoft, especially in specialized technical roles, but I'd be cautious about assuming an immediate earnings impact. Azure demand, enterprise software and AI spending are still major valuation drivers. Moon is where I approach shorter term headline reactions separately, while MSFT's long term case needs a broader view.
If I could go back to 2000 I’d love to but MSFT, yeah
If I wanted to be safer, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL. Also maybe MELI. All in Google or Amazon would be totally solid. If I wanted to take a really risk in hopes of 10xing in 3-4 years, PLTR. I would NOT do this though.
we know chips are printing, what matters at this point is increasing revenue from AI. Google and MSFT going to save the market again.
MSFT is a safe bet. try RKLB instead lol
All of it is a fugazi. OpenAI, MSFT, GOOG etc. are all fucked on the AI front.
$NVDA, $TSMC, $TER, $META, $ASML, $MU, $SNDK, $MSFT, the fuck? The list goes on and on. This is also during the scale-out period when the companies need to spend insane Cap-ex. Imagine if that cap-ex pays off and translate to scaled revenue?
A couple of additional thoughts... The current price action shows nobody is catching this fall. Nobody is buying the dip. It's all down even after hours. There was no bounce. Nobody is stepping in yet. They will some day, but not yet and I don't think it's close. I was around for the dotcom boom and bust. I helped cause it, working for one of the companies who everyone knows about and is synonymous with the dotcom bust. When the bust started in early 2000, investors sold out of the tech stocks and put their money into the "safe" S&P 500 and DOW. This lead to all new highs. Then it fell too because of the losses being hidden, and the fact that Puma was a fucking clothing company. The creative accounting being used in the tech companies was learned from the big boys, not the other way around. The exact same thing is happening now. The index is being held up, even reaching all time highs. Then it too will fall when marketing budgets get cut and the debt situation starts to get worse. This won't be as bad as the dotcom bust because GOOG/AAPL/MSFT/META all make real money, and they will recover, but they sure as fuck will go down. Stay safe first. Do the right thing you would advise someone else to do. In the morning I am selling the rest of my shit, taking massive losses in the process, and I'll sit it out and watch the rebound, or the dead cat bounce. I won't know which it is for a couple of weeks.
Not when we are correcting due to fears of the AI trade being over. CPI print doesn’t matter if the AI growth cycle is outpacing it. Look back to July when the same thing happened and MSFT came out with the earnings beat and SOXL and NBIS went 25% up the next day because the AI trade showed promise.
First they took our jobs, healthcare and ate our cats. Now they’re taking our NVDA and MSFT. Monsters! /s
The age of generational bagholders is upon us. Look at MSFT in the 2000s after dotcom crash.
I had calls on so many stocks and put on MSFT. All of them went in vain
Coreweave purpose is to absorb the shocks so MSFT and Meta dont take the hit. It’s all financial engineering 💁🏿♂️