MSFT

Harp-Note

damn it MSFT pumped

internetsoci0path

have a cost basis of around 370 on MSFT translates to my nuts being pretty big btw

internetsoci0path

MSFT calls

myguide2wealth

2013: Sergey Brin's affair with an employee. Google (GOOGL) rose 1,200% since then. 2019: Jeff Bezos' affair. Amazon (AMZN) rose 210% since then. 2021: Bill Gates' affair with an employee. Microsoft (MSFT) rose 115% since then. 2026: Jensen Huang's alleged affair. What happens to NVIDIA (NVDA) next?

myguide2wealth

2013: Sergey Brin's affair with an employee. Google (GOOGL) rose 1,200% since then. 2019: Jeff Bezos' affair. Amazon (AMZN) rose 210% since then. 2021: Bill Gates' affair with an employee. Microsoft (MSFT) rose 115% since then. 2026: Jensen Huang's alleged affair. What happens to NVIDIA (NVDA) next?

Thisispaartaaa

Last week their trailing 12 month p/e was under 15...I know it's not exactly something to base your investments on, but I have never seen GOOG under 15, ever. I have this strategy that has not failed me yet. I start accumulating shares in the hyperscalers, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG and META when their trailing 12 month p/e ration is under 20. Just slowly start building, then when the trailing p/e hits about 23-25, I start unwinding the position. Hasn't failed me yet!

internetsoci0path

MSFT 555+ tdy

Harp-Note

Morning Theta! 🤗 I was wondering what would be better: MSFT calls or NVDA puts? Can't decide lol.

ThanksDependent1001

Google and MSFT and basically all of the old to the moon

Harp-Note

MSFT gonna open at 550 and I'm so mad I couldn't get premarket calls :sorrow:

MasterFaustinoIs

Amd and MSFT :shrek: :shrek: :shrek: :shrek: :shrek: :shrek: :shrek:

ThanksDependent1001

MSFT $552.50 End of day at this rate

mneymaker

Was bashing my head on Friday close for not buying NVDA and MSFT calls before the end of the day. Some giveth some taketh. Balance

Harp-Note

Frick, MSFT keeps going up and I needed calls at open. :(

Lihuman

It’s been flat for a week man, chill. MSFT waited 3 months to bounce back

Ok_Ambassador_4311

MSFT looks nice

Moepenmoes

Even sold MSFT😞 I have no doubt they'll continue to go up long term, but I don't like to sit through crashes😞Will rebuy it the first time it dips 15% or more

music_is_gud

Are you still holding on to your MSFT?

Swiftnice

NVDA -20% tomorrow. All that money will dump into GOOGL and MSFT

internetsoci0path

MSFT gonna be up 5% while everything else is just red and ghey

internetsoci0path

just MSFT n chill 4head

internetsoci0path

so MSFT to 560 tmrw huh

Specialist_Exam_8433

When's the last time you heard about a major Indian CEO cheating? That's right you don't. Calls on GOOGL and MSFT

Spac55

AI-itself is unstoppable. AI is beyond one company or one CEO or any one country. It’s already rolling so fast around corporations & knowledge transformation, hard to stop. $NVDA CEO, honey trap is just noise, earnings spike big. $MSFT $META $GOOG $AMZN $QQQ $SPY Santa spike coming

internetsoci0path

MU puts MSFT calls bang

Wide-Contribution-29

lol nah, my avg is like 195. I’m gonna hold and average down, I have some higher beta shit stocks and other semi conductors I’m looking to consolidate. I sold my Intc for example. If I buy options it’s usually long dated LEAPS, sometimes they work really well like MSFT and other times I’m drowning like with GOOGL. Should a sold before earnings 

XCaliber609

Cuda is just the platform Nvidia has for its chips. Its the acrobat reader equivalent of abobe. Or the Microsoft office equivalent for MSFT. Idk what you mean by "what Nvidia alone can do with Cuda", because Chinese ai companies have already identified the moat Nvidia has with Cuda and have started developing their own open source equivalents (like deepseek's tilelang). The only things unique to nvidia are 1. They were really early make Cuda so a lot of legacy AI/ML scientists used it first and are familiar with it. So they continue to use it and people under them use it and the chain continues. Its the same with 3d designers and solid works or fusion 360. Only Cuda was often also the best and only option so the cycle is even stronger. 2. They also have the best chips. So unless you really have a niche need for a non nvidia chip and a non Cuda platform, it made sense to stick with nvidia. 3. This monopoly is what allows nvidia to have one of the best roi on their products. Its why they can charge 50k for a single H100 when it takes them less than 5k to make it. None of these are anythings that is somehow restricted to only nvidia. If someone is able to drop a chip with comparable compute at a fraction of the cost, the cuda ecosystem will not be able to hold back people from switching. You can say that msft didn't lose sales to open source equivalents when they came, but that was essentially a software only tool who's only cost was the Microsoft 360 subscription. Plus enterprise chose to not have to deal with compatibility issues over the relatively small cost of a subscription. Now imagine if Msft also sold a 50k pc that was alone able to run PowerPoint, do you think the same thing would happen then? Plus with how easy it is to fix compatibility issues with ai reverse engineering, I can see software compatibility not being an issue in the near future. But you as a swe probably know that better than me. Or nvidia will have to drop its profit margins massively to compete in the free market. I dont think we will have the tesla like trade restrictions with chips. if chinese chips get better i doubt the us gov will step in, as chips are national security unlike cars. Americans not having the best evs is not a problem. Palantir not having the best chips is. This will crash nvidia's stock and valuation that is built on sky high expectations. Look at how Chinese memory companies making small updates effects samsung or sk hynix stocks. They haven't even made the chips yet, just announced their progress in the development, and the memory market panics. Tldr : none of the advances of ai you mentioned fundamentally are unique to nvidia or cuda. They are just the present best chips and platform available so people use it. If something better and cheaper comes by that will become the norm. Ai capabilities doesn't not guarantee nvidia's long term success as long as china is in the market to develop its own stuff in its goal to be self sufficient.

internetsoci0path

MSFT got 550+ potential tmrw

internetsoci0path

Oooo shi, MSFT 👀

internetsoci0path

dude in here tried to convince me that MSFT would be down because “all of tech will sell off because of Jensen Huang Honeypot.” Do people in here really think like that LUL

ThanksDependent1001

MSFT will be back to $550 as well

iTouchStuff

$AMZN has added $2 trillion to its market cap since Bezos cheated on his wife in 2019 $MSFT has added $2 trillion to its market cap since Bill Gates cheated in 2021. $NVDA bull case just dropped BTFD retards

LaMeraVergaSinPatas

Let me be a MSFT ceo plz

Ok_Meeting5934

Let me get this straight. Bezos cheated on his wife and $AMZN has added $2 trillion to its market cap since. Bill Gates cheated on his wife and $MSFT has added $2 trillion to its market cap since. Jensen Huang just cheated on his wife. You know what happens next for $NVDA

Pin-Last

There are always doomers on here pushing the latest reason the sky is falling, besides that, Reddit was pretty bullish on MSFT

XCaliber609

Hello fellow electrical engineer! I have a bachelors in it too and am about to finish my PhD in physics. Which is why the whole datacenter in space things triggers me so much xd. AI tech definitely is promising. Just like how the internet did indeed change the world. But that didn't stop the economic/financial side of the world from screwing things up in 2000. AI is here to stay no matter what, and it will almost certainly change the world. But I think just like back in 2000, most of the companies trying to ride the hype train will drown. The few that do make it do so by either tanking the crash (mag 7? but will they be relevant afterwards?) or doing something novel (like how google overtook yahoo). Sure SWE seems to be one of the biggest actual use case for the AI we have right now, but surely that does not justify the amount of money going into AI development. The whole industry seems to be fueled by debt that is following the AGI hype. Something we actually don't know what its use case will be, or how it will change things. Only that it will be disruptive. Heck I've heard some say (Musk or Altman?) that money as a concept or its scarcity will be obsolete. Idk what that even means let alone how we plan for something like that. If we even take it at face value that is. My intuition is that while the software/architecture parts of AI still have much to grow (for better or worse lol), we are reaching hardware limits. Be it transistor size, sheer volume, or power requirements. And these are the places where the opportunity for novel tech showing up is largest. Like ASML and its HNA EUV lithography or nuscale and its small modular fission reactors. Or MSFT's Natick if it hadn't been scraped :'(. But thats not where I see the money flowing into. So far, we have ignored these limits and gone all in on maximizing volume, which I doubt will work anymore. We can't put datacenters near established infrastructure where power is cheaper, due to societal/political pressure. Underground seems too expensive. Underwater near coastal infrastructure seems to be most realistic, but freaking space is what is getting the most hype. And just ignoring these hurdles and hoping the status quo will just keep growing limitlessly and give infinite returns seems like mindless degenerate gambling to me.

batterydiffuser

$AMZN has added $2 trillion to its market cap since Bezos cheated on his wife in 2019 MSFT has added $2 trillion to its market cap since Bill Gates cheated in 2021. NVDA bull case just dropped

0DTEKing

Let me get this straight. Bezos cheated on his wife and $AMZN has added $2 trillion to its market cap since. Bill Gates cheated on his wife and $MSFT has added $2 trillion to its market cap since. Jensen Huang just cheated on his wife. You know what happens next for $NVDA

Boring_Ad7277

The affair rally: $AMZN has added $2 trillion to its market cap since Bezos cheated on his wife in 2019 $MSFT has added $2 trillion to its market cap since Bill Gates cheated in 2021. $NVDA bull case just dropped

Ok_Cry7572

The affair rally: $AMZN has added $2 trillion to its market cap since Bezos cheated on his wife in 2019 $MSFT has added $2 trillion to its market cap since Bill Gates cheated in 2021. $NVDA bull case just dropped Musk had two women pregnant and giving birth at the same time. First Trillionaire

ThanksDependent1001

nVDA drop and MSFT and other semi moon 🤔

Swiftnice

Looks like people will be dumping NVDA and buying up GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN and META tomorrow

Samjabr

haha, that is very true about nuclear. Hel, Germany just pulled that epic self-own in the past decade. At least we went full retard 50 years ago. I think the main counter-point is the economy is in such a precarious position. I wasn't kidding that 75% or more of our GDP is coming from AI. And some estimate are it's far higher, because consumption is being driven by the wealth effect of NVDA, MU, MSFT, GOOG, etc. gaining trillions in value in just the past few years. Regular old Boomers are looking at retirement accounts of millions, sitting on 3% mortgages, and thinking to themselves, I have plenty with which to retire, even if I take yet another cruise, or buy a $150,000 "family" SUV with 600HP, or buy my 3rd vacation home. If Data Centers literally stop, all the semis will take Huge dumps, and even though Hyperscalers won't be spending on GPUs anymore, their values will plummet, because of how interconnected everything is. Neoclouds, SNDK, MU, MRVL, etc., will go tits up. We will be in a full blown recession in 2 years. And no politican wants to run on that. I might be 100% wrong but expect to see Ds walk back their 'grab your pitchfork and torches' rhetoric.

Specialist_Exam_8433

If I recall correctly MSFT bottomed when the Big G came out and admitted his affair, so this is very likely the bottom for NVDA before it heads to 250+

internetsoci0path

haha MSFT gonna be 600 next week

Stunning_Ad_9806

And they still made a shitload on them lol when these went viral they were still $15-$30…. They 8-10xd. You realize people bought and sold right? Has MSFT even doubled in the last 5 years? People have made way more money on these 3 tickers than MSFT lmfao

im_down_w_otp

This is exactly why I got out of my APLD position on Friday. Down from $23 -> $15, lost quite a lot of money on it, but they're too dependent on debt, and still need to find financing to even execute on their existing commitments, and the debt markets aren't getting more kind in the coming few quarters. I'm looking at where to repurpose that capital to recover the losses, and I've been looking mostly at companies with crazy high levels of cash on hand and coming in, while also having essentially no debt, and with solid margins. I actually don't want to invest in MSFT, GOOG, etc. at this point until there is a light at the end of the tunnel for them cannibalizing their free-cashflow to finance their future growth, because sentiments are now resulting in the market treating that investment like some kind of executioner's axe. The most surprising ticker I have under consideration is INTC, which I cannot believe I'm saying to be honest. But, it already got the "things are going to be slower in 2027" news out of the way, and got *hammered* for it. It's currently priced like the foundry side is worth nothing. Traditional CPUs are gaining relevance as the glue and stitching for orchestrating multi-modal AI workflows. They're making actually solid wins with their low-power CPU/iGPU designs, which you can see in handheld gaming consoles. Those designs are the sort that should make their way into advanced localized AI (e.g. robotics, etc.) applications if/when those start to take off. I don't think they're getting back to $140 anytime soon, but I think they might be a safer bet to get back to $100 than a lot of the other players to get back to roughly double where they are today.

Orthoebolavirus

So if there is a slowdown in data center buildout, or more regulations, the big winners will be MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN because CapEx will moderate? And the losers will be NVDA, AVGO, and other semis? Just trying to get next week's narrative straight

kostac600

Nov 1, 2016: $MSFT $56 per share, now $530/ps +69K%. I admit that those ten years ago I figured it dead money. I was wrong.

Mediocre_Gap2236

I don’t think they will either but the market seems to fear so. I have 40% of my retirement in NVDA 40% in SPCX and 20% in MSFT/GOOG so I’ll be going down with them

Mediocre_Gap2236

The companies doing the buildouts will survive. It’s literally Google Amazon MSFT SPCX Meta doing 90% of the buildouts, these are some of the most successful businesses on earth and can just stop building anytime and still have massive cash flows. The little neoclouds might not but that’s not an issue they are tiny in the perspective. IMO the fears are overblown. Not that many companies will transition to self hosting Chinese models due to the setup costs and ongoing maintenance required. Anthropic will IPO and a couple months later if good growth trajectory all these fears will go, and the entire industry will skyrocket again. Either that or Anthropic/OpenAi goes bust and the hyperscalers buy them out. We will still have Claude or GPT but offered through Google cloud or Microsoft Copilot or AWS , just as part of an integrated suite offering.

moorhound

IREN is literally in the same boat; Microsoft makes up between 35-50% of IREN's revenue backlog, and they were also in discussions with Microsoft about them missing delivery timelines. *Every neocloud* is basically funded by MSFT deals, and all of them are behind on delivery and subject to cancellation.

moorhound

Almost half of NBIS's projected revenue is estimated to come from their MSFT contract, and MSFT can cancel the deal if NBIS falls behind on infrastructure delivery timelines (which they will due to memory/chip scarcity).

moorhound

Yes, let's all dump into neoclouds when their primary source of revenue (MSFT) is signaling they're cutting off the tap

henryfw

I'm trying to use DCF with Gemini Argon on high. It thik # My Honest Answer: What Is a Reasonable Valuation? You have to separate **two numbers**: 1. **If your scenario were already guaranteed (**`OpenAI dead + China locked out`**):** * **$400B to $550B** is a very reasonable, disciplined valuation (weighted between Conservative and Central Duopoly, since `AWS` and `MSFT` will aggressively push their hosted open-source models to keep Anthropic from getting too much leverage — and **\~$200B–$280B** if you still refuse to pay for post-2036 terminal value). 2. **Reasonable valuation** ***today*** **in the real world (where OpenAI is still alive and open-source keeps improving):** * Give your "OpenAI dies + clean Western duopoly" scenario a generous **30% probability** (`~\$475B` midpoint) and our competitive/commoditizing base world a **70% probability** (`~\$105B` midpoint including a modest commodity terminal value): 0.30×$475B+0.70×$105B≈$216B0.30 \\times \\$475\\text{B} + 0.70 \\times \\$105\\text{B} \\approx \\$216\\text{B}0.30×$475B+0.70×$105B≈$216B * **Reasonable intrinsic fair value today:** **\~$200B to $250B**. * **Attractive buy price (with a real margin of safety):** **\~$125B to $175B**. Look at what that tells you about **$965B**: at $965B, you are paying the **Stretch Bull Duopoly price (**`\$985B`**) upfront today** — meaning if OpenAI literally collapses tomorrow, China gets banned globally, *and* Anthropic grows to $470B in revenue, **you barely make your 10% return, and if anything less happens, you lose money** # Then why did Series H print at $965B? Two structural reasons explain how private investors signed off on $965B without needing common stock to be worth $1T on a conservative DCF: 1. **Preferred seniority & strategic "round-tripping" (Sections 1 & 3):** * Private round investors bought **preferred stock** (sitting inside **$136.3B** of senior liquidation preferences that get paid back before common in a weak exit), not unshielded common equity. * Strategic cloud and chip backers simultaneously locked Anthropic into **$895.4B of infrastructure commitments** (Section 3). If a cloud/silicon supplier invests $10B at a lofty $965B headline mark while collecting $100B+ of high-margin cloud/chip contracts back from Anthropic, **the supplier profits on the commercial contract even if the equity mark gets cut in half**. Public common-stock buyers get zero supplier rebates. 2. **Venture call-option pricing ("AGI replaces white-collar labor"), not DCF pricing:** At \~$1T, buyers are not pricing an API or SaaS company — they are buying a 10%–15% probability call option that autonomous agents capture a multi-trillion-dollar slice of global payroll *and* that 2–3 frontier labs form a permanent oligopoly with pricing power.

bluedinoraptor

I mean the AI, Data Center loans, and junk bonds news is not going to help Google, MSFT, or META short term but they still hold great value so buy the the second or third dip.

Sad_Preparation1621

Just buy quality businesses at times like this. High FCF from operations, high ROE and ROIC, reasonable PEG, p to s and p to b, watch Shiller index. Ie MSFT, AAPL, LLY, LMT

StonkGoUp

Oh okay yea, all the compute contract shit going on in big tech is kind of sketchy. I’m too stupid to understand all the obligations but I watched some dude on YouTube break down that death spiral infographic between like NVDIA, MSFT, AMZN, OpenAI, ANT where they all play hot potato with debt and obligations. I guess we’ll see how it looks once the dust settles and the market figures out how to price these AI companies with insane revenue but giant compute costs/obligations

-Crash_Override-

Calling BS on your claim to work at MSFT. But regardless, switching model providers isnt capping usage. Your point makes no sense.

_maxt3r_

Looking only at returns since the two-year marker: Rank Stock Nov 2024–Nov 2026 1 GOOG +59.6% 2 AAPL +53.7% 3 MSFT +27.9% 4 AMZN +25.0% 5 TSLA +24.0% 6 META +6.5% Key distinction: Apple wins over the full five years, whereas Google wins over the most recent two.

PleaseGreaseTheL

You think that layoffs happen because they can't *afford* employees? Tech companies have had layoffs every year. By your logic, MSFT was constantly existing hand-to-mouth and never able to make payroll. That's just not how layoffs work, or what they're used for in tech. They're used to reorganize the business when they decide they simply don't need the people anymore. They hire at the same time as they lay off. Hell, I was a new hire at a small org when one of my coworkers was laid off within the next few months. I was still around. Hiring and laying off happens at the same time.

gwiner

I see. This is simply where we differ in perspective - the force majeure was called and in many ways its bullish for Oracle since that means less capital expenditure in the near term (essentially flexibility to not have to pay rent on space until the delays are over). Secondly, having read into that case I know Bloom energy has already confirmed the energy supply will be able to deliver the energy requirements until that is settled. As for MSFT and GOOG, their cash flow is closer to positive and with cloud growth as it is - i’m not too worried about their future. Hence why I pick on ORCL and is more a sign of the true risks to the overall AI trade

Koraboros

MSFT recently cancelled their oracle contract in favor of newer GPUs

internetsoci0path

how shall my 800 shares of MSFT treat me on monday

internetsoci0path

MSFT has to go up a solid 5% for me not to kill my self on monday

internetsoci0path

MSFT gonna be 550 monday btw

MICT3361

They already rented those GPUs out for 20% higher than the MSFT contract. Dumbass

MICT3361

They rented those GPUs out 20% higher than the contract MSFT cancelled. I know this is reddit but I would expect WSB to be not be dumbasses

internetsoci0path

MSFT to 550 all i care abt is

FinePerformance1046

Yeah, nobody has thought to put their money in AAPL or MSFT yet...

TequilaTrader

Everyone who sold recently will put their money in AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT and META. It’s the only logical safe place for money unless you put it in SGOV.

jasperCrow

The bull case is crumbling. MSFT canceling their compute deal with ORCL is a major tell.

McOmghall

Nasdaq is gonna end having AAPL MSFT and fucking Walmart holding the whole index

DarKcS

Gah as someone who worked on both ends of these sites, no one has it right. First and most importantly, those older GPUs still have enough capacity to be useful and will have been immediately auctioned off to their current backlog. The shortage is so bad, older cards are now worth double their initial RRP. Second, this occured because MSFT blew their budget on AI spending and have been winding down entire divisions and cutting costs for the last year - the fact wall street dumped on this news despite it being public knowledge months ago that msft was not going to be able to afford more spending on AI, goes to show you retail once again focuses on the wrong message while they sold you the local top again. Wall street need a narrative to sell, you all just make it easier.

DuP_491

Their revenue is soemthing which totally wrong and misleading, I work in msft For few months we used claude right and left with token maxxing as bases , so did meta amazon etc. Now all these company put a limit to that MSFT has opted out of claude model completely so their revenue has decreased significantly

SanDisk_Made_Me_Itch

MSFT actually has positive ROI in AI investments. They still spending. That news dumps Oracle but not the rest of the market. 

Significant_Speed854

I mean what's also odd is how some stocks are still way higher than March 30 (2026). Like MSFT, AAPL

LarsTarkas

Feel like the MSFT announcement would have had a bigger impact if we didnt dive off a cliff yesterday

internetsoci0path

MSFT to 550 please n thank u

internetsoci0path

may GOD bring MSFT to 550

internetsoci0path

MSFT legit the only good stock in MAG7 rn

internetsoci0path

I wasn’t looking at the market 2 days ago can anyone tell me why MSFT was up so bigly

internetsoci0path

MSFT oughta be the highest priced stock in the world. I love it so much.

internetsoci0path

a really bad day for MSFT —> 1% down

internetsoci0path

MSFT will be 550+ monday

internetsoci0path

i’m thinking MSFT to 550+ monday less get it

internetsoci0path

MSFT calls for monday

internetsoci0path

META 590 puts or MSFT 545 calls

internetsoci0path

MSFT 550+ monday?

Ok-Pea3414

Microsoft has been getting more compute in-house. Use of compute has become more efficient. Newer GPUs MSFT has acquired generate more tokens per kWh used, and MSFT wasn't training on Oracle compute, it was running inference, which it can do on its own servers - cheaper. I think, Microsoft's ultimate goal is to not have to rent any compute for inference, and use its own custom silicon for inference.

AnimalStyleCreole

So, after the 4% correction yesterday what they can do now is trim some mag 7's like GOOG and MSFT while propping up the rest of the market. $SPY Calls for next week.

moorhound

>MSFT, the guys bankrolling most of the AI surge (>60% of CRWV revenue, >40% of IREN/NScale revenue, significant ORCL revenue), signaling they're bowing out Market: hahahaha, let's ignore that

greenpride32

MSFT either has a client requesting newer generation or they themselves have a desire to use it. The reports are IREN Horizon 2 is delayed delivery because MSFT asked for some changes - connecting the dots now it is probably something similar. Just because the older generation doesn't fit a specific use case, does not mean it is still not in demand.

Sea_Local2557

realized vol is crazy man, maybe MSFT and Apple is not that bad but the rest, hell no this is the time for buying hedges when vol pulls back or for gamma scalping

dreggers

ORCL both has less debt, better balance sheet, and declining CDS spreads but it gets hit much harder on the MSFT news than CRVW. Make it make sense

RIVNMoonMe

Back up to where we were before the MSFT ORCL announcement. Never could have seen that one coming...

Cyee05

Got cheap OTM puts in the am, sold on the dump with the MSFT news

jasperCrow

MSFT not needing as much compute is Bullish chip makers right? :kek: :kek:

Emilio___Molestevez

should be bullish for neoclouds. I just don't see $MSFT using less compute at any time in the future. gotta get it somewhere.

toydan

if you pressed me on it think all this bullish for $MSFT v bearish anything else they are and have been good stewards of their dollars in CAPEX and only seems to be increasing that of late.