Reddit Posts
Anthropic S1 - solid Growth. Encouraging direction..But ... Extreme Client Concentration and $450 Billion commits: The hidden operational Debt anchor
Anthropic - solid Growth. Encouraging direction...can they be the Google or SpaceX of the market?
Anthropic S1 - solid Growth. Encouraging direction but what about valuation? Inside Anthropic's Pre-IPO Financials
Anthropic S1 - who is ready to Buy the absolute top of the AI hype cycle. Inside Anthropic's Pre-IPO Financials
Dell is up over 200% in a year while almost everyone actually buying the racks has been getting smoked
DeepSeek just open-sourced its production inference engine (running on Huawei & Nvidia) the exact same day DHS banned it across all US federal supply chains.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Forget the distractions, the AI trade hinges on Metas earnings report this week
We have now entered the next phase of the AI super cycle and here are the likely winners and losers
MSFT options collar: Avoiding constructive sale designation and understanding if strategy is sound.
If you had $100k to put into just one stock, what would you pick?
How do you think about holding concentrated positions after big gains?
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
Mentions
I am frustrated like you, but I have been fortunate to time my GOOG purchases (and MSFT) pretty well and plan to hold long term. I personally think the top HyperScalers (GOOG, MSFT, AMZN) will be the biggest / safest play winners here. Once they've built out capacity it will be a very large moat for them in 28 / 29 / 30 (just like Cloud) and they'll have a large part of a fast growing, capacity constrained, market. I also agree with you that the cash flows of the Big Tech firms will see them through. The Hyperscalers can also throttle back CapEX if they need to, or when prudent. The NeoClouds can be screwed if they don't grow fast enough... they can't lay off of spend and need someone to keep loaning them $$$. As an aside, I usually invest for a minimum timeframe of 12 months unless my thesis on the purchase changes. I also don't do short selling or options as trading isn't my primary occupation and I don't feel comfortable doing it. I generally try to keep 5-10% of dry powder and use an opportunity where a big name goes down 20-30% to investigate and buy. If I have a smaller name and it goes up 5-8x I usually sell a bit off the top and put into an index.
How much are MSFT paying to workers to leave? Anyone have the severance terms? 2-3 salaries per year?
META, SPCX, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT are all renting out compute now. How do Neoclouds really compete, especially with someone like SPCX who solved a big chunk of the power problem and are so much faster standing out their data centers?
Guys I need a quick 10 bagger. Today was MSFT do you guy know which stock will that be tomorrow
Adding to your point, their marginal cost depends on their revenue and usage. They have take-or-pay compute contracts with at least AMZN, MSFT, and GOOG. They're paying for that compute whether it's used or not, and this is locked in for 5-10 years.
Bullish as fuck. I never considered getting MSFT until now, thanks anon
“No ROI on AI” My guy, $MSFT is cutting 27% of its employees and growing 18% YoY… they expect to continue that rate of growth with 27% fewer employees…..
60k MSFT workers taking the voluntary exit at $400k fully loaded is $24B a year (~13% of EBIT), levered 2-1 debt-to-equity, would fund about $70B of capex, almost exactly equal to MSFT consensus y/y capex increase.
I'm getting MSFT vibes with the amount of people bitching about google on reddit... but MSFT had a bigger drawdown than google currently has. Make of that what you will.
I'll take a buyout. I dont work at MSFT though
MSFT offering employees $ to beat it but plot twist they’ll get rehired in a year when the programs meant to do their work turn out to be ass and need that personal touch
MSFT want to buy out employees like you
MSFT way up today. Sad how things work but I get it.
so was that MSFT buyout extended to replace AI (all indians) with AI. due to the whole H1B thing
Might be time to just put it all on black. Can’t believe the MSFT buyouts, I mean I can believe it but damn feeling pretty fucked.
seems to be going through the same phase MSFT was before it shrek'd
A boon for MSFT employees who are on the verge of FIRE.
Take the buyout and put it all in MSFT to maximize the bull run
MSFT just found a way to get rid of 60,000 employees because of AI...where there's a will, there's a way.
INTC might be the sneaky swing vote this week. If they talk up foundry traction and PC demand while MSFT/GOOGL guide AI spend higher, the market might finally stop treating AI like one ticker.
I worked at MSFT, this is not correct, at least not now. Entry level software is 59/60, 63/64 is senior, 65 principal, etc. You can be an individual contributor at any level, even high levels. Level 70 (which there are very few of) can be an IC distinguished engineer, they might not manage anyone
> Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is moving higher today, trading up +$6.79 (+1.30%) at $531.31 from its previous close of $524.51. Microsoft has 223,000 full-time employees globally as of June 30, 2026. So if microshaft 💩got rid of all workers except Nugella, Gates, Bulmmer than it would move up by about + - $35 lulz.
MSFT offering buyouts to 60,000 employees, slightly over 1/4 of its workforce. My condolences to all of them. Hope everyone lands on their feet.
>tech headlines: SPCX takes on $40bn more debt, Meta looking for $95bn in equity to fuel more AI burn, MSFT looking to lay off 60k workers why up again
Quick cross-check on how Congress has been positioned in this trade, from House and Senate transaction filings since Aug 1 (ranges as printed): * **NVDA:** 5 sale lines from 4 members (Booker, Whitehouse, Meuser, Cisneros) vs 1 purchase (McGuire) * **MSFT:** 8 sale lines from 6 members vs 4 purchase lines from 3 * **TSM:** 3 purchases (Fields, Cisneros, Allen), 0 sales * The President’s latest OGE 278-T also lists an **NVDA sale of $500K–$1M** dated Aug 21. It’s a small sample, and the filings show what and when, not why. Plenty of it is probably rebalancing. Still, if $2.1T of data center capex is real, it’s interesting that the buying is at the fab level, not the GPU or hyperscaler names.
With MSFT leads the way, other MAG6 have no choice but to follow. 💩 storm is coming.
I mean, all these companies are gonna need to generate ~1.3 trillion in revenue over ~3 years just to cover their buildout costs. I am not saying the technology isn't amazing; I am saying the scale might not be there for a subscriber or enterprise model yet... if ever. And everyone is racing to be the next Google, AMZ, MSFT, META, etc... + all the bulshit neoclouds... so I think this shakes out pretty badly in maybe 18-26 months, and you see the 3 big dogs, MSFT, AMZ, GOOGL, gobble everything up.
Pretty much, I've seen this done several times in my career at the same company: voluntary separation package (VSP). Each time they never met the goal. The result was RIFs the over the next quarters until they mat the numbers they needed. Working in IT, on topic of MSFT, I don't buy the " AI leads to efficiency". I think they over spent money on AI, need to justify it, and most of all pay for it. The RIFs are how they pay for it.
You would be correct. So the best examples I can offer here as to the misunderstanding of many investors are AAPL and WMT. Forward P/E is treated a little too sacred by most amateur investors, and you'll constantly see the gnashing of teeth about these two tickers being eternally "overvalued." The answer is simple: they're both cash fortresses. Another good example is the continued success of KO over PEP: KO contracts out most of its distribution line. PEP owns most of theirs. As a result, PEP has much heavier CapEx to worry about, which is one of the major reasons during a time of higher yields it is trading at a much lower P/E than KO. On the opposite end of the spectrum, you can observe the fall of Meta over the past year. Its forward P/E looks attractive, yet it just went negative free cash flow. Often times, these companies eventually have to dilute shares in order to raise cash as borrowing money becomes too expensive. GOOGL has never recovered from its dilution and AMZN has been trading at a sharp discount against its P/E in large part because they also went negative FCF. MSFT on the other hand has been the stock of choice amongst the hyperscalers for the past few months as they are the singular one still positive FCF. In a lot of ways, a lot of Wall Street investors likely foresaw this as early as a year ago, hence why most of the Mag7 have been stuck in mud while AAPL has feasted.
Yea they either solved ASI or some regarded uni student vibe coded a MSFT clone over night
What does MSFT cutting employees due to AI productivity gains have to do with small AI players failing?
Not every Org in MSFT, sales for instance is large but unable to toss their hat into the ring.
You’ve got buyout money to create generational wealth with MSFT calls and you don’t have to work anymore, what is the downside?
You guys were saying the exact same thing about MSFT before it jumped 150 points. Google is going to crush, say they have reduced capex by like 1% and the market will love it.
Holy hell. MSFT swinging for the fences of depravity. Calls on VPU
Imagine if a huge amount took it. MSFT would be absolutely fucked today. That being said, I’ve been told a lot of juniors today at Microsoft and even some seniors are essentially just AI relays that don’t do much development at all themselves anymore. I guess it’s better to be paid to find a different career then to wait until you’re abruptly laid off.
As a fellow MSFT employee... my org is never eligible for these
They can fire everyone as long as my MSFT shares go up in value
That's a whole lot of salary savings in the long-run. There are alot of dinosaurs in MSFT, cutting the fat there is such an MVP move. Bullish
That MSFT news is genuinely terrifying lmao we are FUKD
Somewhat concerning for humans, but bigly bullish for MSFT. The K continues widening..
The Fed decision is probably the least of it. Futures have a hold at around 90%, so the statement itself is mostly priced in. If there’s a move, it’ll come from the 2:30 press conference. The real pileup is Wednesday: the Fed at 2pm, then MSFT and GOOGL report after the close the same day. Their capex guidance will do more to the Nasdaq than 25bp either way. Thursday morning brings Q3 GDP and September PCE, then Amazon after the close. The BoJ wraps up the week on Friday with its quarterly outlook, and after the August 2024 carry-trade unwind I wouldn’t ignore a yen surprise. One thing I watch after big tech reports is insider Form 4s. Most companies close the insider trading window before earnings and reopen it a day or two after, so the week after is when the selling shows up. Most of it is pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sales and means very little. An open-market buy after a bad quarter is the one worth noticing.
“Undervalued” needs a huge asterisk there. These companies have very low P/E due to massive **unrealized** investment gains, keyword unrealized. If you look at Price over Free Cash Flow instead of Price over Earnings it paints a much dire valuation picture: MSFT: 235.40x AMZN: 112.43x GOOGL: 101.88x NVDA: 87.46x META: 70.10x AAPL: 64.35x TSLA: 394.17x Not to mention all those unrealized investment gains are mostly them passing around each other’s shares. So yea quite literally a bubble waiting to burst. All it will take is one of these companies to have a bad quarter or 2 and the house of cards is gonna fall
Breaking: MSFT buying out 60000 workers
MSFT earnings in two days... If in profit stock sinks 10% if target not met sinks 20%...
Are we all in on MSFT puts today boys?
Bull case: \- FED unchanges rates \- AMZN, MSFT, GOOGLE beat and raise + increase capex
GOOG beat them all to it. Sucked the stock dumped, but great business decision to raise the funds before META, MSFT, etc., dilute, and also prior to the big IPOs that'll siphon off liquidity.
“Substantial” revenue doesn’t matter when your expenses are in great excess of said “substantial” revenue. SpaceX is not Google or MSFT, Elon. Sorry. You’re the neoncloud.
Well I do not have 25 years of cybersecurity experience but I'd like to pick your brain. To me the industry is moving away from FW towards endpoint security platforms. This seems like something that is being adopted by platforms like MSFT defender and Crowdstrike falcon. Even PANW is moving to this (see Koi). So while MSFT may not be focusing on HW FW, there's going to be a ton of competition in endpoint security, and that's where the puck seems to be going anyways.
Throw SPCX AMZN MSFT GOOGL ORCL META in there since they all burning trillions building data centers like the neoclouds.
because AAPL is great, but its overvalued. GOOGL's bear case is being underaddressed by the market, that being search. MSFT is simply an AMZN with more risk in enterprise software and europe exposure. META is great for the future, and I already have a large position. What does that leave? The company who benefits disproportionately from automation, with little in the case of bear cases other than capex, and whose stock has underperformed even spy in recent years - and it's time for it to catch up.
Friedman had an interesting article in NYT today, suggesting the development of AI as the second Big Bang. He makes interesting points. Of course he is not a scientist, but, he travels and talks to a great many well informed people. He has access, in a very wide circle, which most of us do not. He is not a fool. He does not address investments. It makes sense to participate in AI growth. I’m just a casual user of ChatGPT. Happy to subscribe, great information. I’ve been long XLK, SMH, MSFT, NVDA
ORCL has over $650b in RPO. About $300b is tied to OpenAI, so even without them it's $350b. OpenAI is well funded and the big contract starts in 2027. So let's say OpenAI does not succeed long term; ORCL will still have collected large chunks of that $300b. The frontier lab exposure for ORCL isn't much different compared to AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT, main difference is those other companies have a larger margin for error. Estimates put VC investment into AI startups at the serveral hundred billions of dollars over past 3 years. I think there is a lot of confidence from the likes of NVDA, the larger hyperscalers, and the big long term investors that even if the currently leading AI frontier labs fail, there will be other parties to take in the demand. AI isn't going away. But the winners of that platform/application layer are still TBD.
Depends on the fed, midterms, MSFT/AAPL/INTC/AMZN/SNDK/etc this week. Alot going on.
Question for somebody smarter than me These companies have a majority of their debt written off to special purpose vehicles and by design those companies only get money once the leases start and a lot start in 2027 so they currently don’t have revenue. Does this shut down the builds and GPUs to those places and thus a huge cascade effect? Last time I looked up earnings for META, GOOG, MSFT, ORCL and AMZN the debt they had written on books was 475B compared to the 2.7T written to the SPVs that starts coming due in the future
Is googl abt to a pull a MSFT this earnings?
Yeah I think META and MSFT are due for a downtrend
No strikes, oil dropping, open to close on Friday was flat and a whole week of negative macro being priced in. Hyperscalers will get some buying Monday to position for earnings especially AMZN on GOOGL to sell those calls and build a position around their current prices. META and MSFT managed to retain most of their ground YTD.
42% MSFT at $390 per share 25% VTI at $357 10% ADBE at $247 9% GOOG at $317 6% METU at $19.52 6% META at $595 2% FXAIX at $207 Total portfolio value $145,880
He's forecasting credit rationing, which I think is a reasonable conclusion. Lenders are going to stop signing cheques for every small "innovator" in the generative AI field. Lenders haven't lost their appetite for this sector of the market. I just think they're no longer willing to finance growth at any price. Companies with independent cash flows can ride that out; companies dependent on perpetual refinancing may not. MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN..? The big players are going to be fine. NBIS, CRWV, IREN...? I don't like their prospects.
MSFT puts might actually be the play
**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **MSFT** | $499.00 (below) | $524.72 | -4.9% | Sun, Nov 1, 3:23 PM ET |
Someone smarter than me tell me if I should sell my MSFT and NOW calls before earnings or hold.
This week is like the Super Bowl for my account. Google, MSFT, Amazon, SKHY, Fed meeting. Let’s ride
Meaning leave MSFT and into RDDT?
Rich gets rich poor get and stays poor. I’ve always said this and it’s always true, MSFT was a no brainer to buy around 370, every single mag7 except TSLA is an easy buy and they all will go back to their ATH, whoever has the most money will make a shit ton just to long into shares of these stocks. The multi millionaire makes millions of dollars the poors with $1k account gets blown up in seconds trying to do options
SKHY GOOG MSFT AMZN INTC SNDK this week
Will MSFT save the market again this quarter?
This MSFT triple top looking no bueno
While not necessarily a good trade I see you got lucky to the tune of $5,000+ I'm guessing it was related to the AI drops and less about MSFT itself.
I threw all my spare capital (except savings) in a tech ETF.... about a month ago, at the ATH. I'm realizing I can't stomach the volatility. Against my better judgment I'd like to close my positions ASAP and put my money somewhere else. Not looking to make all my cash back. But do I want to time my exit where I don't leave money on the table. Is the play to hold through earnings season and hope for a "Santa Claus Rally"? The ETF is heavily weighted towards NVDA, MSFT, AAPL.
I threw all my spare capital (except savings) in a tech ETF.... about a month ago, at the ATH. I'm realizing I can't stomach the volatility. Against my better judgment I'd like to close my positions ASAP and put my money somewhere else. Not looking to make all my cash back. But do I want to time my exit where I don't leave money on the table. Is the play to hold through earnings season and hope for a "Santa Claus Rally"? The ETF is heavily weighted towards NVDA, MSFT, AAPL.
MSFT is somewhat since they pumped on Copilot numbers but it isn’t thaat good. No idea how they got 40 million seats
I know MSFT will heavily beat all estimates upcoming week, but I fear the market will go red another week no matter how good the profits are... Feeling like staying cash gang until this year's Santa rally starts
$MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN and $INTC all report next week, with the Fed decision on Wednesday
yes I just bought more of MSFT and service now
you're right about all that! I do believe that it is not that big a hurdle that it cannot be replicated in that you build user groups, permissions, etc. At least new software companies can replicate these products, but I think like you said, companies are locked into them and think that it is impossible to switch/switching costs are extremely high, when they might not be. In my last job some 5-6 years ago, may sound stupid on my part, probably is, but we had some reports I had to do that were posted on Jira. Those extracting the data, etc. used to created tickets and put the due dates in the title in all mixed formats. The due date entry in those Jira forms was also weird, I explored it a couple of times and there were multiple due date categories in the filter fields...but long story short - it was extremely challenging to find what was due this week or in the next couple of days, and people even went thru them manually and kept those tabs open in the browser...was super messy when it is a very essential field - if you have a task, have a due date and make it filterable. No disrespect to the few good product managers out there, but I think that most of the PM's are utterly useless, most don't know tech and don't know business either. Have never used the product themselves, and are there just to have meetings and be an interface b/w the engineers and the customer (much like the 1999 movie Office Space showed). I have worked with some of the biggest names out there including MSFT, Walmart, gaming companies, etc.
Yeah, MSFT is a little bit tricky. It is relatively balanced compared to other MAG6
MSFT is a semi play with extra steps. Their cloud earnings will fall off a cliff if OpenAI IPO isn’t a home run.
“Hello dear, this is tech support. I see you are have issues with the softwares and we accidentally send you MSFT shares. Please sell and Venmo the money back before we call authorities.” 😆
I wanted MSFT to be the one to stake tik tok so bad.
I think it's time for MSFT to die
I think we have a green week tbh. 3 of GOOGL MSFT LLY AMZN will hit
Fomc + google MSFT, gonna be fun
If I only have hold everything I bought and added since liberation day, like I do with my Index. I would have had significant amounts of more profit on single stocks. I can name a few, NVDA, PLTR, AMD, MSFT, META.. even if the QQQ correct with around 33% I would be flat accounting inflation numbers.
Rddt and Iren are new positions for me. Took a risk opening before the biggest catalyst week of the quarter. Rddt is long term. They google deal is up in 2027 and both rddt and google know how valuable the API’s are. The concern about Iren is how much is priced in. They deliver to Horizon to MSFT, but not sure what else is left to give it a boost other than the valuation being strong. What’s your thought on both?
Retard is short MSFT LMAO
Donald pls bomb MSFT specifically :pray:
AMZN, SPCX META. MSFT and NOW calls next week. You are welcome.
MSFT exposure to AI capex is like 200B, and they have 600B in pre orders (they have not collected on). They'll be fine as long as the AI engine chugs along... they generate 180B in revenue too.. so...
KLAC LRCX ASML maybe GOOG. Next week after shit bombs on MSFT GOOG capex.
Hold and keep buying. When the dust settles OpenAI and Anthropic will be subsidiaries of MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, TSLA/SPCX, or GOOG. These Chinese bots are simply spreading FUD. The sell off is a blip on the road to an SPX over 10K next year. There is no reason to be afraid of anything unless governments try to actually pay down debt and that isn't going to happen. The sell off has amounted to 6% on the NASDAQ and 2.5% on the SPX. These aren't anything.
I have a feeling we somehow get a 1% gap up on Monday, pump into FOMC, dump Weds afternoon, get saved by MSFT earnings in the evening, only to get fucked again thurs before open by GDP & PCE
There were stocks that recovered faster! Looking at an index for recovery is not the way to go. Looking at stocks like MSFT where they recovered fairly quickly!
That’s hilarious…my $NVDA, $MSFT, $AMD, and $TSM shares completely dismantled your theory.
I still love the AI space, but specific parts of it. I do like the memory and certain chip makers and Google/MSFT. I have not gotten into neo-clouds b/c that is where I think the debt will go bad. But, Blue Owl and the likes will just take over the data center from there. So, I think the debt and certainly the no wanting data centers is hype driven by politics and will dominate the next two weeks. Reality is governments will all need their own global infrastructure of data centers and it is a national security need on many levels. This is a multi-year/decade transition. China and Japan have huge plans. So does the US...it is just when Trump says it you have all the politicians trying to take the other side. But, in this case...I agree we need to lead and be in front of this infrastructure necessity.