MSFT

kostac600

Nov 1, 2016: $MSFT $56 per share, now $530/ps +69K%. I admit that those ten years ago I figured it dead money. I was wrong.

Mediocre_Gap2236

I don’t think they will either but the market seems to fear so. I have 40% of my retirement in NVDA 40% in SPCX and 20% in MSFT/GOOG so I’ll be going down with them

Mediocre_Gap2236

The companies doing the buildouts will survive. It’s literally Google Amazon MSFT SPCX Meta doing 90% of the buildouts, these are some of the most successful businesses on earth and can just stop building anytime and still have massive cash flows. The little neoclouds might not but that’s not an issue they are tiny in the perspective. IMO the fears are overblown. Not that many companies will transition to self hosting Chinese models due to the setup costs and ongoing maintenance required. Anthropic will IPO and a couple months later if good growth trajectory all these fears will go, and the entire industry will skyrocket again. Either that or Anthropic/OpenAi goes bust and the hyperscalers buy them out. We will still have Claude or GPT but offered through Google cloud or Microsoft Copilot or AWS , just as part of an integrated suite offering.

moorhound

IREN is literally in the same boat; Microsoft makes up between 35-50% of IREN's revenue backlog, and they were also in discussions with Microsoft about them missing delivery timelines. *Every neocloud* is basically funded by MSFT deals, and all of them are behind on delivery and subject to cancellation.

moorhound

Almost half of NBIS's projected revenue is estimated to come from their MSFT contract, and MSFT can cancel the deal if NBIS falls behind on infrastructure delivery timelines (which they will due to memory/chip scarcity).

moorhound

Yes, let's all dump into neoclouds when their primary source of revenue (MSFT) is signaling they're cutting off the tap

henryfw

I'm trying to use DCF with Gemini Argon on high. It thik # My Honest Answer: What Is a Reasonable Valuation? You have to separate **two numbers**: 1. **If your scenario were already guaranteed (**`OpenAI dead + China locked out`**):** * **$400B to $550B** is a very reasonable, disciplined valuation (weighted between Conservative and Central Duopoly, since `AWS` and `MSFT` will aggressively push their hosted open-source models to keep Anthropic from getting too much leverage — and **\~$200B–$280B** if you still refuse to pay for post-2036 terminal value). 2. **Reasonable valuation** ***today*** **in the real world (where OpenAI is still alive and open-source keeps improving):** * Give your "OpenAI dies + clean Western duopoly" scenario a generous **30% probability** (`~\$475B` midpoint) and our competitive/commoditizing base world a **70% probability** (`~\$105B` midpoint including a modest commodity terminal value): 0.30×$475B+0.70×$105B≈$216B0.30 \\times \\$475\\text{B} + 0.70 \\times \\$105\\text{B} \\approx \\$216\\text{B}0.30×$475B+0.70×$105B≈$216B * **Reasonable intrinsic fair value today:** **\~$200B to $250B**. * **Attractive buy price (with a real margin of safety):** **\~$125B to $175B**. Look at what that tells you about **$965B**: at $965B, you are paying the **Stretch Bull Duopoly price (**`\$985B`**) upfront today** — meaning if OpenAI literally collapses tomorrow, China gets banned globally, *and* Anthropic grows to $470B in revenue, **you barely make your 10% return, and if anything less happens, you lose money** # Then why did Series H print at $965B? Two structural reasons explain how private investors signed off on $965B without needing common stock to be worth $1T on a conservative DCF: 1. **Preferred seniority & strategic "round-tripping" (Sections 1 & 3):** * Private round investors bought **preferred stock** (sitting inside **$136.3B** of senior liquidation preferences that get paid back before common in a weak exit), not unshielded common equity. * Strategic cloud and chip backers simultaneously locked Anthropic into **$895.4B of infrastructure commitments** (Section 3). If a cloud/silicon supplier invests $10B at a lofty $965B headline mark while collecting $100B+ of high-margin cloud/chip contracts back from Anthropic, **the supplier profits on the commercial contract even if the equity mark gets cut in half**. Public common-stock buyers get zero supplier rebates. 2. **Venture call-option pricing ("AGI replaces white-collar labor"), not DCF pricing:** At \~$1T, buyers are not pricing an API or SaaS company — they are buying a 10%–15% probability call option that autonomous agents capture a multi-trillion-dollar slice of global payroll *and* that 2–3 frontier labs form a permanent oligopoly with pricing power.

bluedinoraptor

I mean the AI, Data Center loans, and junk bonds news is not going to help Google, MSFT, or META short term but they still hold great value so buy the the second or third dip.

Sad_Preparation1621

Just buy quality businesses at times like this. High FCF from operations, high ROE and ROIC, reasonable PEG, p to s and p to b, watch Shiller index. Ie MSFT, AAPL, LLY, LMT

StonkGoUp

Oh okay yea, all the compute contract shit going on in big tech is kind of sketchy. I’m too stupid to understand all the obligations but I watched some dude on YouTube break down that death spiral infographic between like NVDIA, MSFT, AMZN, OpenAI, ANT where they all play hot potato with debt and obligations. I guess we’ll see how it looks once the dust settles and the market figures out how to price these AI companies with insane revenue but giant compute costs/obligations

-Crash_Override-

Calling BS on your claim to work at MSFT. But regardless, switching model providers isnt capping usage. Your point makes no sense.

_maxt3r_

Looking only at returns since the two-year marker: Rank Stock Nov 2024–Nov 2026 1 GOOG +59.6% 2 AAPL +53.7% 3 MSFT +27.9% 4 AMZN +25.0% 5 TSLA +24.0% 6 META +6.5% Key distinction: Apple wins over the full five years, whereas Google wins over the most recent two.

PleaseGreaseTheL

You think that layoffs happen because they can't *afford* employees? Tech companies have had layoffs every year. By your logic, MSFT was constantly existing hand-to-mouth and never able to make payroll. That's just not how layoffs work, or what they're used for in tech. They're used to reorganize the business when they decide they simply don't need the people anymore. They hire at the same time as they lay off. Hell, I was a new hire at a small org when one of my coworkers was laid off within the next few months. I was still around. Hiring and laying off happens at the same time.

gwiner

I see. This is simply where we differ in perspective - the force majeure was called and in many ways its bullish for Oracle since that means less capital expenditure in the near term (essentially flexibility to not have to pay rent on space until the delays are over). Secondly, having read into that case I know Bloom energy has already confirmed the energy supply will be able to deliver the energy requirements until that is settled. As for MSFT and GOOG, their cash flow is closer to positive and with cloud growth as it is - i’m not too worried about their future. Hence why I pick on ORCL and is more a sign of the true risks to the overall AI trade

Koraboros

MSFT recently cancelled their oracle contract in favor of newer GPUs

internetsoci0path

how shall my 800 shares of MSFT treat me on monday

internetsoci0path

MSFT has to go up a solid 5% for me not to kill my self on monday

internetsoci0path

MSFT gonna be 550 monday btw

MICT3361

They already rented those GPUs out for 20% higher than the MSFT contract. Dumbass

MICT3361

They rented those GPUs out 20% higher than the contract MSFT cancelled. I know this is reddit but I would expect WSB to be not be dumbasses

internetsoci0path

MSFT to 550 all i care abt is

FinePerformance1046

Yeah, nobody has thought to put their money in AAPL or MSFT yet...

TequilaTrader

Everyone who sold recently will put their money in AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT and META. It’s the only logical safe place for money unless you put it in SGOV.

jasperCrow

The bull case is crumbling. MSFT canceling their compute deal with ORCL is a major tell.

McOmghall

Nasdaq is gonna end having AAPL MSFT and fucking Walmart holding the whole index

DarKcS

Gah as someone who worked on both ends of these sites, no one has it right. First and most importantly, those older GPUs still have enough capacity to be useful and will have been immediately auctioned off to their current backlog. The shortage is so bad, older cards are now worth double their initial RRP. Second, this occured because MSFT blew their budget on AI spending and have been winding down entire divisions and cutting costs for the last year - the fact wall street dumped on this news despite it being public knowledge months ago that msft was not going to be able to afford more spending on AI, goes to show you retail once again focuses on the wrong message while they sold you the local top again. Wall street need a narrative to sell, you all just make it easier.

DuP_491

Their revenue is soemthing which totally wrong and misleading, I work in msft For few months we used claude right and left with token maxxing as bases , so did meta amazon etc. Now all these company put a limit to that MSFT has opted out of claude model completely so their revenue has decreased significantly

SanDisk_Made_Me_Itch

MSFT actually has positive ROI in AI investments. They still spending. That news dumps Oracle but not the rest of the market. 

Significant_Speed854

I mean what's also odd is how some stocks are still way higher than March 30 (2026). Like MSFT, AAPL

LarsTarkas

Feel like the MSFT announcement would have had a bigger impact if we didnt dive off a cliff yesterday

internetsoci0path

MSFT to 550 please n thank u

internetsoci0path

may GOD bring MSFT to 550

internetsoci0path

MSFT legit the only good stock in MAG7 rn

internetsoci0path

I wasn’t looking at the market 2 days ago can anyone tell me why MSFT was up so bigly

internetsoci0path

MSFT oughta be the highest priced stock in the world. I love it so much.

internetsoci0path

a really bad day for MSFT —> 1% down

internetsoci0path

MSFT will be 550+ monday

internetsoci0path

i’m thinking MSFT to 550+ monday less get it

internetsoci0path

MSFT calls for monday

internetsoci0path

META 590 puts or MSFT 545 calls

internetsoci0path

MSFT 550+ monday?

Ok-Pea3414

Microsoft has been getting more compute in-house. Use of compute has become more efficient. Newer GPUs MSFT has acquired generate more tokens per kWh used, and MSFT wasn't training on Oracle compute, it was running inference, which it can do on its own servers - cheaper. I think, Microsoft's ultimate goal is to not have to rent any compute for inference, and use its own custom silicon for inference.

AnimalStyleCreole

So, after the 4% correction yesterday what they can do now is trim some mag 7's like GOOG and MSFT while propping up the rest of the market. $SPY Calls for next week.

moorhound

>MSFT, the guys bankrolling most of the AI surge (>60% of CRWV revenue, >40% of IREN/NScale revenue, significant ORCL revenue), signaling they're bowing out Market: hahahaha, let's ignore that

greenpride32

MSFT either has a client requesting newer generation or they themselves have a desire to use it. The reports are IREN Horizon 2 is delayed delivery because MSFT asked for some changes - connecting the dots now it is probably something similar. Just because the older generation doesn't fit a specific use case, does not mean it is still not in demand.

Sea_Local2557

realized vol is crazy man, maybe MSFT and Apple is not that bad but the rest, hell no this is the time for buying hedges when vol pulls back or for gamma scalping

dreggers

ORCL both has less debt, better balance sheet, and declining CDS spreads but it gets hit much harder on the MSFT news than CRVW. Make it make sense

RIVNMoonMe

Back up to where we were before the MSFT ORCL announcement. Never could have seen that one coming...

Cyee05

Got cheap OTM puts in the am, sold on the dump with the MSFT news

jasperCrow

MSFT not needing as much compute is Bullish chip makers right? :kek: :kek:

Emilio___Molestevez

should be bullish for neoclouds. I just don't see $MSFT using less compute at any time in the future. gotta get it somewhere.

toydan

if you pressed me on it think all this bullish for $MSFT v bearish anything else they are and have been good stewards of their dollars in CAPEX and only seems to be increasing that of late.

Skilledthunder

Lmao MSFT says they're winding down renting AI computing from ORCL and losers think it means AI is winding down. Heads up, its because they've managed to bring enough of their own servers online that they dont need ORCL

jasperCrow

MSFT canceled the compute deal with ORCL because compute demand is SOOOO HIGH!!!! :kek: :kek: :kek:

jasperCrow

MSFT evicting ORCL

Resident-Juice9763

ORCL and MSFT compute news, msft doesnt wanna renew contract

ZeroSumTruths

Team Oracle and MSFT teamed up to FUCK YOUR CALLS

jasperCrow

Capex projections about to get slashed 1 after another. MSFT announcement only the first of many more to come.

jasperCrow

It’s a self preservation move. Not really bullish for anyone but MSFT.

jasperCrow

MSFT just loaded the next leg down for Ai :clifford: :clifford: :clifford:

jasperCrow

MSFT the first the cut compute spend. Only the start of this chain reaction. Hold on to your butts.

42thefloor2011

MSFT canceling the Oracle deal is the canary in the coal mine

MrT_IDontFeelSoGood

MSFT winding down the amount of AI cloud compute they’re renting from ORCL

WillTheGreat

MSFT to wind down ORCL compute deal lmao

Boring_Ad7277

MSFT popped the bubble

Governmentswallows23

They got most everything covered options wise. Probably won't see much movement than what we've seen without some big news. Maybe adjustments right at eod. $MSFT and $AMZN are overbought by $2-3 but not a significant imbalance

KobeFirm

serious question. you think weekly DCA into MSFT/NVDA/PLTR will be good moves during these times

besthuman

LOL remember back in the summer when everyone wouldn't touch MSFT — only to see it rise 40%+? I bought a ton of MSFT then… I don't think AI or data is going anywhere. Red or Blue, everyone wants and uses tech.

doortoNarnia

Why are MSFT puts 4x the cost from 2 days ago lol

FluffyLoveBall

MSFT’s resilience to inverse the market regardless of the situation should be researched

Beneficial-Age-9293

MSFT, AMZN, GOOG cloud services growth beg to differ.

Swiftnice

MSFT is red and GOOGL is green lol

doortoNarnia

MSFT up bigly and GOOGL down bigly 🤔🤔🤔

Deadbugsoup

Friendly reminder the Pelosi's portfolio is all NVIDIA, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO, etc. I know she's retired but still.

GooglySoft

Wth is wrong with MSFT?

itsalwayscalls

I planted a seed yesterday why aren't I already eating the apples? Meanwhile MSFT has been leveraging AI for 3 years and their revenue has grown 56% with flat staff count. Start looking around and making your own decisions. Go read what AON, AJG, and CHRW have all said about AI in the past couple weeks. The old measure of productivity is dead. Now its about shorter timelines, faster deliveries, more code, high revenue, And etc.

The_Albertino

MSFT a total turd once it let go of 540 yesterday. My calls in the toilet now won’t even bounce

Western_Coffee_5445

$MSFT is laying off 60k people...dont think jobs gonna be fine

bartturner

This is all so stupid. The future is AI. Nothing is going to change that. The AI has to run somewhere and that will be the cloud. So you buy Google, Amazon and MSFT. But do like Google the best of the three by far. Google is growing their cloud way faster than everyone else. Not just in percentages but in actual dollars. Google blew away Amazon in growth, QoQ, last quarter and their lead is accelerating.

Ambitious_Snow840

GOOG META MSFT PLTR SPCX All have OPERATING profits from AI cloud and mkdels. And don't bring up mark to market. That's why I exclaimed operating profits. Idiot.

NHLBigFan

Hold to zero is hardly relevant to hyperscalers. MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOG

Nomad-2002

MSFT 568 -> 503 (-11.5%). Low 3 days ago.

Puzzleheaded_War6102

Whose making money other than NVDA? GOOG, AMZN, META are negative FCF. MSFT is getting there too. Neoclouds never made a penny of profit. Open AI or Anthropics? LMAO.

Taraih

MSFT is doen 5% not 11.4%

Nomad-2002

Stocks I was looking at (bought all except MSFT): SPCX -46.6% GOOG -31.8% NVDA -26.4% AMZN -25.5% META -25.1% MSFT -11.4% AAPL -9.0% Not buying yet:

Governmentswallows23

$CRWV and $ORCL can't expand and continue financing operations with debt, can't repay loans (hits VC, PE, Inst. Banks). $NVDA loses some of its largest customers. $GOOG, $MSFT and hyperscalers lose huge portion of future growth prospects as compute supply is evaporated, struggle to pay back loans (further hits financial firms, chip firms). OpenAI and Anthropic can't meet its compute commitments, possible default on debt as well. It's all a grade A cluster

MaleficentBus1863

She used the word "Partnership" twice. Her stance is not an ideology. It's negotiating. Dario/Sam/MSFT/AMZN....give her what she wants.

FuckleUp

I had MSFT and IWM swings with puts. Took profit early but happy

Kantmzk

VGT is wonderful. I was a big time owner of VITAX until I changed it to VGT and then liquidated my entire position to buy MSFT at the correct value. I did that because of Charlie Munger, who said: "What you have to learn is to fold early when the odds are against you, or if you have a big edge, back it heavily because you don't get a big edge often. Opportunity comes, but it doesn't come often, so seize it when it does comes." MSFT was an obvious pound the table buy this year. At this point, I think GOOGL will become that and buying GOOGL individually would be better than the index as a whole given it has become so mispriced (and still might fall further).

SkillNo1358

Oh, I see I thought you meant put out of business but yeah, it'd be nice if META or MSFT bought them

throwaway9gk0k4k569

> MSFT, META and GOOGL might as well announce today they will reduce capex spending. what difference would that make. They have real customers with real compute demand who are paying real money. They probably won't cut back that much because it would cause those customers to flee to another provider. This mechanic has been thoroughly discussed over the last two years. Anyway, the comment I wanted to make was: The market is announcing it for them.

imustbegthequestion

$MSFT down mildly. That means big gain to end the week. Right? Right?

Chance_Tea_5130

Exactly. Once again, here we are at "the wall of worry" that we've been climbing for centuries with both retail and institutions deciding what narrative to which they want to link their accounts. During GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT earnings calls over the last two weeks, multiple banks asked the same question various ways: "Is AI buildout capex spending getting to be too much? Too risky? What is the threat to free cash flow?" The stocks took a few gut punches in the headlines on Bloomberg, CNBC, and even here in various posts, and the stocks dropped. Today, the pervasive worry seems to be this "Are Dems going to kill the AI trade by slowing buildout?" narrative. So, are we worried about capex burn destroying free cash flow but fueling AI and "beating China"? Legislative regulation that likely slows down capex spend but preserves free cash flow? People can worry about whatever they want, but worrying about both of these questions is pointless and not exactly profitable from an investor standpoint.

throwawaygoawaynz

Terrible take. The big three US models are taking off in the enterprise, and some studies are linking them to productivity improvements in the US. Some companies like MSFT are even finding paths to profit, and seeing their copilot seats soar. This is why the dc regulation also might be a huge self own for the US, especially since there’s so much misinformation surrounding dcs. They have a significantly less environmental impact than agriculture and industry, yet many are powering not just AI but the digital economy.

collinspeight

CVS, PYPL, and ULTA right now. I sold MSFT early this year but everything else has pretty much stayed the same throughout the year other than adding to my positions where necessary. I'm generally very concentrated (less than 10 stocks) and hold for 5 years minimum with few exceptions.

Own-Recipe5908

MSFT will probably inherit GPT and googl/amzn calude.

Cav829

I posted [this morning](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1xofthb/comment/19s6e77wmb4f5/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) that I thought the setup for today looked rough. Did I think it was 5%+ bad? Not necessarily. But there were major factors I've been tracking for a while that were screaming that the potential was there. Since you were looking for more information, I'll explain my reasoning. Sorry for the length in advance: 1) First off, I massively de-risked back in July. I saw a lot of indications back then that something was starting to change. I'll pat myself on the back a bit for getting one of the most optimal points to get out of the pool back (missed the optimal by a few weeks). I have 2 401s, one of which had been 85%+ tech since all the way back post-GFC. I completely converted it to an 80/20 Boglehead setup. The big indicators for me were the massive topping pattern in KORU and the KOSPI sell-off as well as MU earnings marking the top in the memory trade. 2) Elaborating on the above, I watch leadership more than anything to anticipate market performance. Quite frankly, I don't care how consumer staples are doing. We could keep going up so long as the Semis and Mag7 were strong. Hence, I already kind of thought we were on borrowed time as the memory trade unwound as what was going to replace that? Leadership only continued to erode from then to the point we were basically held up by AMD, NVDA, and MSFT. Yeah, three companies basically. I'm kind of surprised more people weren't noticing how bad this was getting. 3) The Nasdaq lost support 5 trading days ago. The S&P technically briefly lost it, reclaimed it and tried to push into the moving average stack yesterday, and got swatted back down. That was a pretty bearish look. 4) Credit spreads have been blowing out for weeks. This is like the most consistently accurate super bearish indicator I've ever discovered to the point it's a cheat code. It perfectly predicted the Iran War decline, the Fall lows of last year, and Liberation Day. The market will always stay up if flows support it no matter what dumb narrative is out there. The second money dries up on the other hand, you have to watch your butt. There are some other minor things, but that's how I constructed my own reasoning as to how I was able to detect something was about to occur and what I did about it. Which was just selling tech out of my 401, raising cash, and sticking to day trading over buying much for the long-term.

moorhound

They're just not going to build this shit, because the ROI is not there. Businesses planned on doubling their AI spending this year, and instead almost went 5x because of the extreme token burn the agentic age brought. Businesses just aren't making the money to justify the spend; almost 70% of all current compute spend is just Google/OpenAI/Anthropic frontier labs trying to chase AGI. Even the big boys are scaling back, MSFT murdered Nscale with a big commitment cancellation this week. AI's a big thing, but not in the "this is going to double our GDP" way that they were promising.

Spac55

Too much over reaction. US GDP, 30 Trillion, beyond any single party left or right BigTech know how to work with both wings. Whoever invite, they go along to meet their profit margin, left & right doesn’t mater $GOOG $META $MSFT $NVDA $AMZN $CAT $JPM $GS all saw many midterm

TheRealGreenArrow420

+17.58% after today. Outside of FXAIX 401k contributions, about 10% of my portfolio is AMD, GOOG, MSFT, INTC, NVDA in order of size