Reddit Posts
Microsoft tightens oversight of neocloud data center projects with Nebius, IREN, and CoreWeave
Tax-loss harvest without losing exposure
Am I dum dum or should we not long GOOG/Short MSFT?
We’re in an anti-bubble bubble
How to turn $20,000 into $$216 million with $MSFT in one easy step [time travel involved].
Genuinely scared , NQ could be down nearly 3% by NY OPEN
EBAY has outperformed AMZN, GOOG, MSFT and META over the past year
EBAY has outperformed AMZN, GOOG, MSFT and META over the past year
Amazon misses on earnings and holds capex steady, adding to AI spending jitters
So it turns out that a year ago the bears were RIGHT: AI is cannibalizing Google Search
GOOGL: Everyone Was Bullish Yesterday, Now Google Is Suddenly Dead?
Oracle is backing off from cash burning. Will more companies follow?
Anthropic S-1 DD: the $80.7B loss is a mark on Amazon's notes, and Broadcom is backstopping $29B of Anthropic's rack leases
Holding both GOOG and MSFT into Wednesday's earnings: the 3 things I'm actually watching for each
Anthropic S1 - solid Growth. Encouraging direction..But ... Extreme Client Concentration and $450 Billion commits: The hidden operational Debt anchor
Anthropic - solid Growth. Encouraging direction...can they be the Google or SpaceX of the market?
Anthropic S1 - solid Growth. Encouraging direction but what about valuation? Inside Anthropic's Pre-IPO Financials
Anthropic S1 - who is ready to Buy the absolute top of the AI hype cycle. Inside Anthropic's Pre-IPO Financials
Dell is up over 200% in a year while almost everyone actually buying the racks has been getting smoked
DeepSeek just open-sourced its production inference engine (running on Huawei & Nvidia) the exact same day DHS banned it across all US federal supply chains.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Forget the distractions, the AI trade hinges on Metas earnings report this week
We have now entered the next phase of the AI super cycle and here are the likely winners and losers
MSFT options collar: Avoiding constructive sale designation and understanding if strategy is sound.
If you had $100k to put into just one stock, what would you pick?
How do you think about holding concentrated positions after big gains?
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
Mentions
Ironically, redditard echoing ignorance in the biggest echo chamber of them all. Well done. A bit of old fashioned non-AI googling could have helped you understand how properly set up data centers have provided ecosystem benefits, from energy innovation (MSFT's Scandinavia heating experiment), construction/employment, commercial tax base (data ctr alley, va), but hey...stay victimized, my friend.
Microsoft is an interesting example. It went up after the election, while everything else is going down. Reminds me of june first, when it started tanking hard, after a rally. PLTR did the same thing if memory serves. Along with many stocks for which june 1st was an inflection point. It seems like sometimes, there's this kind of big rotation going on, and some things get dumped, others are pumped, and there's no real rhyme or reason to it. As for MSFT, it looks like the whales are just following their spreadsheets, and the spreadsheets aren't fully sure if MSFT is a dinosaur legacy software company, an overleveraged AI company, or something else entirely.
Mag7 soon to be Mag5: GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META. The AI capex crash is actually playing in GOOG favor by murdering Open AI and Anthropic IPOs. Less cash for scaling and horrible macros, while Alphabet has many cash cows. Neoclouds FUBAR. Semis at the end of a high cycle. Looking forward to buy penny stock shit tickers in the 5-10$ range.
I love it man. the opportunities are out there. WMT was just $103 and there was absolutely no reason why. COST was just $880 too. companies like GOOG and MSFT will survive and thrive with or without AI. our job is to identify opportunities and roll with it.
It just keeps getting more depressing.. >Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab tightens oversight of some data center projects from neocloud providers Nebius, IREN and Nscale, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Whats the move? Short Nebius?
The thing is $AAPL and $MSFT still got some dumpin to do, so rotation-recovery will be spread eagled out over a lot of fortune 5 hundi's and many others
Most of it's collateralized by their hardware, which is why MSFT/SoftBank were game, but with compute rental prices continuously dropping over the past few months that deal's going sour real fast.
MSFT signaling they are re-evaluating their relationships with neoclouds. MSFT makes up 62% of CRWV's total revenue and 42% of NScale's revenue, as well as >30% of IREN and NBIS's revenue. All of these companies are instantly insolvent without MSFT backing.
Eyyy! I sold 1/3 of my position @ $1,200 (JUN earnings) and another 1/3 @ $\~1,100 the day after SEP earnings. I also trimmed down all my individual tech positions the day after SEP MU earnings. I also went short QQQ in OCT, but stopped out yesterday (\~+90%), but left a lot of meat on the bone today 😭. Some WSB addict probably made like 20% on those contracts overnight lol I’ve only been buying DCAing into GOOGL AMZN MSFT & META. I think we are getting close to extreme fear and volatility where semis/memory might be worth a try to either start DCAing or flip for a trade? Maybe @ VIX 30?
> These are low leveraged, well financed, reasonable P/E, battle tested companies. ... DFAQ... thats why they are all going to private credit, doing SPVs to keep shit off the books and going into negative free cash flow... I have a feeling AI is gonna be like fiber, lotta big names in AI gonna eat a dick and get gobbled up, and in ~10 years a handful of companies that were able to make it through will kill it (thinking AMZ, MSFT, META, GOOGL, and maybe Anthropic).
Depends how you look at it. If you're saying that the market is still positive for the year and could have more selling if it came to it, then I'd agree. However, to call it overbought from as a synonim to overvalued then I'd disagree. Semi stocks are already in deep bear market territory and that's even before anything around earnings is confirmed but rather this is front running on fear, many other smaller stocks have also not performed the greatest over the past 12 months. All you really have is stocks like Aaple and MSFT that now hold so much weight in the S&P sitting at historically high prices so the broader market looks expensive.
man, MSFT, META and GOOGL might as well announce they will reduce capex spending. what difference would that make.
Yyp: GOOG, SPCX, MSFT, AMZN
And AAPL and MSFT has not joined the party yet. Bottom is not yet in.
Just to add - this report doesn't cover the rumors suggesting that IREN might be late on delivering phases of the Horizon datacenters to MSFT. We will find out later today when IREN announces earnings if that is the case, because a delay would be very impactful to their projected revenue next year.
i should have full ported to MSFT when it was 400
MSFT is well positioned - OpenAI isn't.
$MSFT about to get cowabunga'd back to the 400's
Haha I mean 0DTE-1DTE calls mostly - Most recently the MSFT call on my watchlist (added Tuesday, rallied Wednesday- Could’ve turned $10 into $1400) Other than that the tickers where I paper-handed and missed out on 100x+ moves were mostly META, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, and a few others as well.
GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, and META holding even as indexes start sliding again
Yesterday was a temporary reprieve brought on by exuberance: the end of electoral uncertainty. Today it's back to the tech bubble collapsing, which has been happening for months. The tech bubble collapse is accelerating. The NASDAQ 100 is now in correction territory, off 10% from its all time highs. South Korea's KOSPI had to halt trading again last night. Today has been been the worst day for chip stocks in more than six years (March 2020). Nvidia (NVDA)'s one-year return is negative 4.17. Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL) still have more than 3 Trillion dollars in off-balance sheet spending commitments. Sentiment has shifted: the VIX is up more than 30% today alone. Fear is back in the marketplace.
Nadella looks smart for slowing MSFT's capex acceleration significantly and keeping cash flow strongly positive. Cook looks like a genius for not getting involved in the AI race at this point. Right now it's hard to see the benefit for anybody that's all in on AI capex.
Anything other than APPL, MSFT or MSTR
For some companies, yeah. For others (and the majority of my holdings) I'm still very much up. AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, ONDS, etc
Glad I decided to revenge trade APPL and MSFT puts rather than buy calls
RDDT, AMZN, META, MSFT 10k each you will thank me later
Except no one cut due to demand, again MSFT's expected spending was lower than expected because of delays
AMZN is doing pretty damn good here, stil up 5% on the week. Going to be rotating some more cash in there throughout the next week or so. MSFT is another worth picking up IMO
Which AMZN news are you referring to? MSFT expected expenditures fell not due to demand, but due to data center delays. This isn't money overall falling, but a time premium change. The money spent stays the same but is pushed out, which is short term bearish for valuations, but not long term bearish. I would argue semiconductor valuations falling already reflects this.
MSFT opted not to double data center capacity in texas lol
Bargain bin stock shopping rarely pays off outside of after a market crash. MSFT last year and GOOGL the year before are rare examples of the opposite. But look at how many people have chased the likes of ADBE all the way down. And like you alluded to, if the AI bubble pops. Why do you want to buy AI stocks? Yeah, when the dust clears you can buy them for years in the future. But there’s no rush on that.
I rotated out of MSFT and got NVDA. LFG!
The most comical sell off I’ve seen in 11 years of investing. What even is the logic here: that Democrats will ban AI forever? JFC. How will GOOG MSFT AMZN fulfill their backlog, with dark magic? Absolutely bonkers.
never thought shorting $MSFT would be the best play of the year
You fuckin idiot, when the music stops nvidia is gonna tank harder than anyone else, they got nothing goin on but AI, you fuckin idiot, what youve done… you couldve went MSFT or AMZN but no, fuckin NVIDIA lmao
AAPL + MSFT holding the entire market together
Congratulations to the people who bought $MSFT puts yesterday at the top like myself
Was losing sleep over my MSFT puts expiring tomorrow so panic sold at open. Let's see how much better it could have been.
Considering the gains from yesterday MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL are barely pulling back
Are you 100% certain that we are at the "peak" of the cycle? Because every CEO of every chip company and hyperscaler are saying the opposite. Capex is only projected to go up over the next year and TSM/SKHY/MU etc are have demand exceeding supply for multiple quarters (if not years in TSM case), is it still fair to say as a blanket statement that semiconductors are cyclical commodities? Have you noticed how there are semiconductors and screens and sensors in everything these days from wearables, applicanes, medical tech, autonomous vehicles etc, do you expect all of those industries to just stop using as many semiconductors in the future? Even without AI, post-iPhone has been a pretty consistent increase in demand for this technology for years, is it really fair to just say "whelp chips are cyclical" and sell off some of the most profitable companies in the world? NVDAs net income could fall 30% next year and they would still be in line with AAPL, MSFT, and GOOG as the highest operating profit in the SP500, are we really THAT confident that NVDA profits are going to fall by 30%+ in the next few years? Place your bets!
$MSFT at all time highs, $QQQ has more space to dump
let me check MSFT, AMZN and APPL
Who tf is buying microslop $MSFT at 558
A dog such as KHC is up over 5.5% over past 5 days. Does anyone believe this will form a base long term and only go higher from there? Doubtful. This is why retail often loses to the index returns. They easily buy a narrative shaped in a single day. Well these type of stocks went up they must be good; these type of stocks went down they must be bad. Ultimately the financials will drive the stock price up or down. Buying and holding companies with consistently growing top and bottom line will eventually reward you. Remember MSFT droping to $350 or less just month or two ago? Yet look at their 10Q's and there is no problem at all. Look at stock price and look at financial performance and you see two stories. But keeping a close watch on one of those stories is what grows my net worth. Wall Street makes money from liquidity. That is why their media is all about new ideas and what's next. They want you to move your positions around - they don't care where, because they take slices of that liquidity no matter what.
Cmon $MSFT go down like the promiscuous girl we all know you are
Money is going to flow out of Semis, memory, PLTR, SPCX and TSLA and back into AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, and META
It was hedge funds and investors that were trash, not MSFT.
Remember when MSFT was trash?
The debt these companies hold is typically tied to term contracts that pay for the hardware. Often, the companies cannot obtain the financing without customers, product and space in hand or close to in hand. Don’t confuse depreciation schedules for tax purposes with the physical life and the useful life of the asset. GH chips had a depreciation schedule of 3-4 years against a physical life of 6-7 years. You are seeing in the NBIS announcement that the chips seem to have a useful life that is closer to the physical life. This makes the current debt load make even more sense. Rental economics after the debt is retired need to cover the cost of operation and the rest is profitable…… Eyes wide open as you say…..there is insatiable demand and significantly less capacity. In the current political environment, neoclouds may well be punished in favor of those that already hold the resources: goog, aws, MSFT, meta…..
AAPL, AMZN, MSFT just carrying this shit :kek:
Bart Simpson pattern on MSFT, begin loading puts for next week
Worked many years in Cisco and moved out now, still friends are there. Based on my discussion, Cisco will follow MSFT, GOOGL in cost cutting Voluntary retirement programs. Major technology transformation using AI is happening and that will also reduce costs in the long run. The stocks won’t go down easily as fundamentals for growth is higher at this stage.
MSFT hitting new highs while AI bros cry is savage.
Same. It is really just the nature of stock prices that they drift sideways for a while, then you get a big move up or down. META, MSFT, AMZN, it has happened to all of them this year.
Wait what but wasn't MSFT's spending delay a good thing for msft
Nice on the APP pop, but one earnings night says nothing about a ten year hold. I look for revenue that comes back on its own without having to re-win the deal every quarter, which is why I'd take MSFT or Veeva over ZETA. Position sizing matters more than the pick anyway.
Expecting to see $MSFT pullback after hitting ATH today
Holding MSFT since End of July (+52%) and thinking about selling and moving the money to semis/memorys. Please tell me its a bad idea
Welp, that's why MSFT and AMZN dgaf
Dude.. not so loud... GDP is fukd, i know. MSFT and AMZN shou l d be fune
Well that's why AMZN and MSFT are winning
I agree with the sentiment, but even as GOOGL, AMZN, & MSFT build data centers around the world, they are still governed by the USA to prevent the newest GPUs, TPUs, HBM, LLMs, etc. from getting in the hands of China, Russia, etc. US companies building internationally still benefits the US in the race for global AI supremacy. It really only hurts the locals who miss out on GDP growth, jobs, and tax revenue from data centers.
Manifesting $MSFT opening >-2%
Got super lucky and closed my long call with MSFT today..
MSFT -20% tomorrow and I buy a hooker a condo
Sometimes, the biggest risk is not taking on enough risk. I have 85% of my portfolio in MSFT since February of 2026 and I am good for now.
Who swing what? MSFT IWM puts
MSFT, RIVN, SPCX calls will rule the rest of the month.
At the rate things are going, MSFT might surpass NVDA for market cap as well.
Criminy, going to lose some MSFT shares….
For real. One of the easiest dip buys of all time. Same with MSFT earlier this year. Same with GOOG right now. MCD will be $310+ within 6 months or sooner.
My top holdings are down (NVDA TSM) but my next 4 are up big (MSFT AAPL GOOG AMZN) so I’m in the green. But most of my portfolio is VT and crushing. I might give up on individual stocks, at age 50 I probably don’t need the stress.
MSFT 10% rip in two days is nuts
MSFT 25B debt offering. You going to buy some?
Manifesting $MSFT Opening > -2% tomorrow
Damn! Looking at MSFT today...if you followed through with buying more you made bank!!! $555 a share!
Since MSFT hit $555 today, and since it now pays around $4 a share each year in dividends, I'm wondering if you have it set to reinvest the MSFT dividends in more MSFT stock?
$MSFT way too expensive fr im expecting a pullback tomorrow
man looks like I need to stop investing in things like MU, AAOI, NBIS, NOW, SPCX, DRAM etc. because SPY went right back up to near ATH and stayed there meanwhile everything went to crap except like MSFT/GOOG/AMZN/AAPL
Long MSFT / AMZN into December is probably a layup. TLT long potentially. Oil long potentially. Travel names long potentially. It will depend on the news, which makes things easier. The memory trade is much more complex in part due to the involvement of huge pod shops and other sharks.
👋 MSFT, AMZN, Visa and Mastercard
Uff, Google market cap is now only 2T, and MSFT is 3.87T. Serious overreaction by the market.
Never thought of shorting $AAPL or $MSFT until today. Wild times.
$AAPL and $MSFT puts is the play right now
Made 400% on $MSFT puts in 25 seconds
Someone just tried and miserably failed to defend their $MSFT position lol
$MSFT finally broke its peg. DOwn, down
MSFT owns 27% of OpenAI Both go together down
if you liked MSFT when it was $370 you'll love it when it's $557 wait
shorting $AAPL and $MSFT at the tip of the tippity top is the correct play, right?!
fr looks scammy, like MSFT just has unlimited bid on no catalysts and im confused
Really struggling to comprehend the price movement on $MSFT...it's overbought like crazy and just keeps holding and pumping lol
MSFT puts seem too obvious right?
Someone is pumping $MSFT to infinity lol