Reddit Posts
Got $10k saved up. Is MSFT at $385 an absolute steal right now?
If hyperscalers like MSFT, ORCL, META, AMZN, etc are down 30-40% semi conductor stocks can’t continue to go up! Says JPM’s Chairman of an investment Strategy Michael Cembalest.
$450,000 USD on MSFT + NFLX. Funded entirely by META profits 🥳
Hands down, MSFT is the worst fucking investment I have ever owned
my MSFT LEAPS exposure as of July 9, 2026
Broker's fees aside, which would be better, buying etf or the individual stocks at the same ratio?
Liquidated all positions: Sitting on $1.2M cash for a 2026 macro restart. How would you deploy this for the next decade?
I have currently sold all my stocks and have $1.2 million in cash on hand. I would like to purchase a new batch of stocks to hold for the lo
MSFT update – holding the bounce, but still under pressure
Microsoft's $2.5B bet might solve AI's biggest enterprise problem
Weighing MSFT plays, straight shares or a long call
The AI capex numbers are getting hard to ignore, but I can’t tell what the market is missing
The move of $MSFT into physical AI is a transformation that warrants a buy!!
MSFT - Bearish Cup & Handle Pattern - Next $342.
Almost lost everything. I promise not to be stupid again…for now 😂
MU stellar earnings = SOXX ⬇️ MSFT & AAPL bad news = MAGS ⬆️
I'm retarded. Have a feeling this will go down even more.
MSFT, META and AMZN are generational buys right now
Any big balls betting on hyperscalers before the Q2 earnings?
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - June 25, 2026 📈 📉
POV: You've been buying the MSFT dips for the past months
If you're not buying MSFT/MSFU at these prices what are you even doing?
MSFT and NFLX are cheaper today than April Liberation day last year
Instead of investing in dying companies you get in on one of the Mag-7 at really low value.
Microsoft is now cheaper than the April 2025 Tariff crash, yet TTM EPS is up 30%. Huge bargain
Market rotation is becoming obvious but retail is still stuck in old narratives
Micron earnings strength + current semiconductor exposure in my portfolio
Micron (MU) earnings really changed the mood in my portfolio
Micron Price Target Analysis Part 2
📓 Daily Brief: Theta Gang Goes To Wendy's
Mag 7 selloff: real risk or just oversold panic?
Is it over for $MSFT. Microsoft Office is going the way of Adobe.
AMZN Extremely Undervalued
SpaceX stock tumbles 16.4%, shaving off most IPO gains since debut
What's might be driving todays fall for Hyperscalers like GOOGL META MSFT AMZN
AI is disruptive. Individual companies have never been more volatile. What’s the argument to not just buy indexes?
A concentrated tech portfolio positioned around semis and AI exposure with mixed hedging through options
MSFT around $378. Falling knife or finally reasonable?
What do you think of "forgotten" tech stocks that are past their peak/cultural popularity?
Genuinely what on earth is going on with software right now? This is completely unhinged.
The AI trade is starting to look like a copper trade too
22% down on MSFT calls, scared, should I sell?
I have lost every position I've taken since june started.
$QCLS Photonics = Multi-Bagger Swing Potential: Solving AI Computing & Fundamentally Underpriced
MSFT Dec 2027 400C, who else loaded LEAPs this week?
Got some cash to play - Thinking all tech. Should I buy individual stocks or an ETF?
Reddit mentions for NVDA, GOOG and GME all collapsed 45-66% in one week. One IPO ate the entire conversation.
Does most of the analysis on this sub miss the key point? What can be done to answer the key question?
somehow, MSFT opening tomorrow like
That is all i need to know about SPCX
New midweek expiration dates getting approved by regulators
Holographic/VR/AR Industry Development Weekly Report, Week 23
chip names ripped today after friday's bloodbath, but the tape under INTC looks weird
chip names ripped today after friday's bloodbath, but the tape under INTC looks weird
Mentions
Classic MSFT. You can actually use it as a market indicator right now. Just inverse whatever it is for everything else and you get free money.
MSFT +0.01%, it's fucking over bols
last week when memory dipped, MSFT somehow saved me. doesn’t look good for me tonight tho
I’ve seen much worse. You’re concentrated, but that’s not always a bad thing. I’m a huge fan of TSM so personally I’d add more to that and decrease AMZN. Right now AMZN is your second largest holding when you include the weights in AMZN from VOO and QQQM plus 8% direct - that’s a lot in AMZN, you need to be extremely, like extremely bullish in AMZN to have that much weight. So I’d ask WHY that much? Why AMZN over GOOGL or MSFT? No shade but just be ages Chris Camillo says Amazon is good doesn’t mean it is. (For disclosure I’m overweight Amazon too, but not THAT overweight). Meanwhile TSM is probably the best company on earth you can buy, and it’s underrepresented in most ETFs, so I’d consider adding extra weight to that
Bears cant sniff out your port if its covered in shit. Thats why I’ll be full porting into MSFT monday and praying for bulls holding good stocks.
MSFT is a very good price right now for something that you can buy and hold to compound over the next decade. AMZN is a pretty good price too.
What is with the absolutely insane candles at the open for overnight trading for META, MSFT, and GOOGL? Did sometime try to market buy in overnight?
The NFLX and MSFT I bought last week might not moon, but at least I didn’t jump into memory lol
It dropped 20% from the peak, but people were also having some unrealistic hype about it with AI, so the stock price just reflects the corrected view now. The question is do you think some of the common hold belief about MSFT is wrong thus it will have the potential to out grow the market in the next few year? If not, why not just buy VOO, which you can just buy and forget
for MSFT's standards let's just stick to the bare minimum of 10% lol
I don't really think MSFT is going anywhere, but at the same time megacap tech is entering into a new phase of competition with each other via AI, and it looks to me like Google and Amazon are winning while Microsoft and Meta are losing hard and getting left behind. Apple is somehow doing alright by refusing to play. Microsoft isn't going to go bankrupt but it needs to take serious AI market share to continue to grow meaningfully at its size, and its biggest plays (Copilot and OpenAI backing) both look like duds to me. That said, Microsoft has the best sales force in the world and knows how to capitalize on it, but still I think I'd like that more in a mostly settled enterprise tech space like the one we saw from 2010-2020, vs. in a land grab environment like the one we're in now.
My port is mostly DRAM and MSFT They call me the king of bags
If MSFT coukd run 25% in the next week like Meta did that would be pretty cool Ideally before earnings because we all know it's going to shit itself 10% on earnings again for literally no reason
MSFT only 0.17% down while everything else looks like dogshit is pretty much bullish. For one week I need semis DEAD. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
It’s the knife. MSFT has gutted the cadre of people who got them to $555. It’s a naked AI bet and with recent AI-pullback, and the fact they cut they’re turn-around capability by massive firings, I have dumped all my MSFT. I’ll buy again at $266.
Gamepass now will include Call of Duty and Overwatch 2 battlepasses, Diablo expansions and even your World of Warcraft subscription! MSFT to the moon! 🚀🚀🚀 Lmao I'm just kidding they would never be that competent 😂
Good, market goes down so MSFT can go up and I can dump this shit lmao
Put 80% into an ETF. You can put the rest in MSFT if you believe it has strong fundamentals. So long as you don’t think their AI spending is catastrophic, it is a good price to buy at I think. But it is your money and risk to take as no one as a crystal ball
1500 in each NVDA, AVGO, GOOGL, ANET, and MSFT. Then put 2500 in other things
Again, MSFT green means a red day. Get ready.
Upcoming earnings (updated): * **Tesla (TSLA):** Wednesday, July 22, 2026 * **SK Hynix (000660.KS / SKHY):** Wednesday, July 22, 2026 * **Alphabet (GOOGL):** Thursday, July 23, 2026 * **Microsoft (MSFT):** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 * **Meta (META):** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 * **Apple (AAPL):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 * **Samsung (005930.KS):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 * **Amazon (AMZN):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 Holding MU and DRAM all the way through this window. Assuming capex guidance continues to grow, memory / chips should see another run up.
Prolly try and get some MSFT
watch a $10 $MSFT PUMP TODAY
Making me feel way better about my NFLX 72C 01/2028 and my MSFT 390C 10/26
#SPY is within 1% of its all time high even though most stocks are down 20-30% or more from their recent highs. MSFT down -30%, Google and Amazon down -15%, TSLA, MU AVGO and META down -20%...and these are the biggest stocks with most weight LMAO🤌
I like something like PYPL more, simply bc it’s a finance & tech stock in one. It’s also diversified with Venmo & Braintree. As with MSFT, it’s massively undervalued while still being used as the most secure transaction platform in numerous sectors (eBay, Etsy, WSOP, Amazon, etc). Shopify is trying to take out that middleman too, but we’ll see if it’s got any legs (I’m guessing it doesn’t). Shopify had a pop during the Pandemic, but that’s an anomaly that created an economic exception.
I’m not sold at all on the idea that people would move away from Microsoft for such products. Their enterprise products are an ecosystem and to really gain a meaningful market share, you have to replace the ecosystem IMHO. it’s not gonna be enough to come up with a better product than Word or PPT considering to many, those already exist. Maybe at the general consumer level people will switch away from Word, PPT, Excel, etc. but it’ll take way more than a startup can reasonably invest to beat MSFT in the enterprise market.
I will out of pure spite hold MSFT, I'm not even hoping for much just a bounce back to $430 by October but with my luck my port will go to zero instead.
Lol I have my MSFT depression blanket on. red Futes, iran war, senators dying of aids; nothing can hurt me
So MSFT 400+ tomorrow??
The thing that usually separates value investors from value traps is being willing to do the math when others are scared. MSFT at a PE of 22 with that kind of growth trajectory isn't just a bargain—it's exactly the kind of compounding engine you should be averaging into when the crowd is nervous about near-term macro. What I'd consider, though, is the quality of that cash generation. MSFT's free cash flow margins and balance sheet strength mean you're not just buying a cheap stock, you're buying a business that can weather cycles and keep investing in its competitive moat. That's the difference between catching a falling knife and catching a real opportunity. With $10k and a multi-year horizon, I'd probably build the position gradually rather than go all-in. Market weakness has a way of creating even better entry points, but that doesn't mean you should wait on the sidelines if the fundamentals are sound. DCA into MSFT looks like a solid long-term play from here.
MSFT will hit 405 today lol
Upcoming earnings (updated): * **Tesla (TSLA):** Wednesday, July 22, 2026 * **SK Hynix (000660.KS / SKHY):** Wednesday, July 22, 2026 * **Alphabet (GOOGL):** Thursday, July 23, 2026 * **Microsoft (MSFT):** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 * **Meta (META):** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 * **Apple (AAPL):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 * **Samsung (005930.KS):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 * **Amazon (AMZN):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 Holding MU and DRAM all the way through this window. Assuming capex guidance continues to grow, memory / chips should see another run up.
No. No no no. MSFT one of the only stocks in my entire portfolio that's done basically nothing over the last 8 years.
Because HOOD will give him too much winnings. MSFT will ensure he doesnt OD buy shaving some of thr gains
Going balls deep in HOOD and MSFT weekly calls
How are my MSFT and NFLX calls ? Lmao
how we feeling about MSFT this week, another doozy coming up?
Short memory, semis, long MSFT, USO
I would be careful with the word steal. It can be a much better price than before without being a no-brainer all-in moment, especially if this is your first real chunk of capital. If you already wanted long-term MSFT exposure, fine, but I would frame the decision around position sizing and time horizon more than trying to nail the perfect entry.
For long term MSFT is great but dont invest at once do 1000 usd DCA
MSFT is good but there are better investments. I think ORCL, NOW, CRWV are much stronger at current prices and if they dip even more
GOOG and AMZN already raised additional capital for further capex. I'm wondering if MSFT and META are going to announce one before earnings too
I could’ve put my money in MU at $350 but decided MSFT at 375 Generational retard
Copilot says the best stock to buy right now is MSFT. Calls it is I guess.
Buying more GOOG and MSFT.
Do you think the value of MSFT will be higher than it is within a year? Five years? Eight? Ten? All depends on your time window and what you want to get from it. Microsoft is a long-term winner - their products are firmly entrenched in many sectors. If you’re looking to make a quick buck, maybe not this one. If you want to hold for a few years, probably a good time to get in and DCA if it keeps dipping.
Buying more $MSFT am I too early lmao?
Long term, investing in a compounding stable company like Microsoft is usually not a terrible idea. Short term, it's rare that the market is making a "mistake" by letting it become cheap. If I want to invest in Microsoft I ask myself this - as far as my ability to value a company and its stock goes, what do you think? Is it fair? If it is, then I would pull the trigger. You can't ever rely on something getter cheaper in the future unless you have very solid reasoning, especially in the longer term when it comes to compounders. Investing isn't really primarily about timing the market. Don't let perfect get in the way of good. Do you like the company? Do you like their position for the future? Have you looked into the competitors and why do you prefer MSFT? These are questions I'd be thinking about for myself. I hope this might help at all, and remember- you don't have to buy anything all at once! Tranches!
$MSFT bulls you think oil at 80$ will still revive Microsoft ?
Can today be the day $MSFT decides to go back to 440.
wait until MSFT NVO earnings that shit like 20% of my port dawg
This sounds like you asked an LLM to put together a post that doesn’t sound too ignorant about investing. I hope that’s not the case, but no frame of reference for your age or experience so I can only make that judgment on the basis that you’re asking Reddit. Short answer is spread it out, but $10k for a high-nominal-price stock, that’s difficult. If you were to buy today like 25 shares, so you’re talking like maybe 5 shares/quarter, outlay of like $2500 per buy. Diminishing marginal returns on the DCA strategy versus if you were to stick it in a techy MF or ETF. Marginally higher expense ratio, but like that versus Hail Mary on MSFT because they’re a well-known blue chip. I personally think technical analysis - which for the uninitiated, is trading based on price movement trends and timing the market - is a waste of time. Apart from legit professional day traders with access to Bloomberg terminal, it leads to significantly (statically significant, not just the word to make a point) lower RISK-ADJUSTED returns. You will lose trying to time the market as a layperson. Prices are expectation-driven, rarely if ever are they value-driven by something intrinsic about the company. Efficient market hypothesis… look it up, but my point is, I am concerned that your investment’s success -in your head- is a function of Microsoft’s “core cloud business” vs. AI spending. Which of those is more speculative? I bet you mentally answered AI, but it’s both. Both are speculative because again: EXPECTATION-DRIVEN RETURNS. It’s not about whether MSFT is the best in class at SaaS shit like Azure or building out AI infrastructure, it’s whether people think that come their next earnings call, will they be better or worse than what ‘the market’ expected. So, OP, when you say “the market seems to be panicking” A) I hate the word “seems”; it means nothing. You’re eliciting a response on an argumentative agree/disagree basis when the sample pop of Reddit ≠ ‘the market’ and isn’t going to be good for making a decision as to whether to buy because the market is reacting to news. And B) are you trying to decide MSFT or something else, or MSFT, but deciding now $10k or later? C) Does the opportunity cost of investing in a comparable ETF exceed the FOMO from a potential MSFT price spike FOR YOU? You should DCA your $10k. Perhaps stick it in a HYS emergency fund. You don’t know if MSFT will butterfly affect your life and make your job redundant in 5 years with the shit they’re building out. That’s the best \*investment\* but I’m not sure what your net worth, risk tolerance, or spending habits look like. Different story for a 25yo vs 65yo.
Really hope you’re not full porting and considering $MSFT with this strategy. While the company mints money, it has some erratic swings. You can open a position and keep building or go with an etf like $VGT or $QQQ as it’ll be a top holding.
I sold 15% of my MU and spent half the proceeds on MSFT.
MSFT gonna moon SPY gonna melt
I've got a 420c MSFT call in my TFSA too! Sept 18 expiration. The only difference is its 1 call instead of 50. You (we) better hope MSFT doesn't gap down on earnings because its cap ex was 40 trillion dollars or else I am going to be moderately upset and you will be totally fucked lol.
MSFT and Oracle show that it’s not necessary for a company to be liked in order to be super successful. I would argue Oracle is an even worse case. I have never met anybody in the industry that doesn’t hate Oracle with a passion but somehow that company keeps selling and selling.
I think it's a good buy, but not an "all-in" bet unless you're willing to wait a few years. It's my belief that MSFT is going to come out well whenever the AI race ends. AI will stick around, but without the same levels of hype as the last few years, it'll be treated as just another tool in M365 for many companies to pay a premium for.
Personally only thing I’m putting money into right now is SPMO. Thought about buying some MSFT but I just don’t see it having a better upside than SPMO and I feel like the ETF is a safer bet.
If you are happy to hold long term Tesla is an epic stock. Although it has barely moved from last 5 years. When it does move it will make up for all the lost years. But more than than it’s what’s brewing that makes it interesting today more than any statistics. Meta and MU are also very good long term. MU is cyclical but very undervalued despite the huge run. Msft is going to be a hit or miss because of what Ai and its bots can do to their services. I don’t own any MSFT for this reason alone. I hold all other 3 with over 40% weight in Tesla alone. All to themselves. Do you own research and run the numbers to see if you can justify getting into any stock.
It's already happened. Xbox and Windows together are such a small part of the whole revenue structure (\~15%) that nobody considers MSFT as an OS company anymore. Well, investors don't. Regular folks may still associate it with Windows, since that's what they interact with daily, not with backend systems like Azure and servers and stuff.
Basically just that indices are generally more stable than individual stocks long-term, so while you might have "conviction" in a single stock, you should really have a better reason than "I've got a raging clue about this one." Now MSFT is a blue chip stock that is much more stable than a penny stock to be fair, but it's still inherently more risky than buying an index fund based on historical trends.
Upcoming earnings: * **Tesla (TSLA):** Wednesday, July 22, 2026 * **Alphabet (GOOGL):** Thursday, July 23, 2026 * **Microsoft (MSFT):** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 * **Meta (META):** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 * **Apple (AAPL):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 * **Amazon (AMZN):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 Holding MU all the way through.
* **Tesla (TSLA):** Wednesday, July 22, 2026 * **Alphabet (GOOGL):** Thursday, July 23, 2026 * **Microsoft (MSFT):** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 * **Meta (META):** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 * **Apple (AAPL):** Thursday, July 30, 2026 * **Amazon (AMZN):** Thursday, July 30, 2026
Lump sum beating DCA roughly two thirds of the time is a stat about a diversified index, not a single stock. Different risk profile entirely once you're picking one name. On MSFT specifically: Q4 earnings land end of this month, and guidance already has capex north of $40B for the quarter on top of $190B planned for all of 2026. That capex debate is the whole ballgame right now, bulls say it's a moat nobody else can build, bears say depreciation eventually catches up once AI ARR growth (currently 123% YoY) inevitably decelerates. I wouldn't drop 10k into a single name the week before an earnings print that binary. Split it, or at least wait for the print.
I dumped a million into UNH when it crashed a year ago. Everyone said that UNH was done because they didn't realize how strong a grip they have in healthcare. https://imgur.com/GNS6622 I closed my position too early with "only" 10% gain. That money is going into MSFT. We'll see how it turns out. I also have $400k in RDDT when it was in the 170s, and everyone ran away from it. I also had Meta when it was in the mid 300s. Also sold too early but for a nice profit. "Be greedy when everyone is fearful" always works for solid companies.
Idk, know a lot of people who work for MSFT and none of them work from a Windows laptop.
They will come back eventually once they realize they cant even get close to what the MSFT ecosystem provides. Munich tested this for over a decade i believe and reverted now cause it failed. Its EU cope (im from EU) they think themselves morally and skillwise superior but are a complete failure in many ways.
Voo at this price is unreasonable. I would definitely pick MSFT over voo at this point for a short term (<1 year) hold.
Public sector isn’t a huge revenue driver for MSFT outside the US though. If private Business start looking for European offerings, then they’ll have a problem.
I sold MSFT at $32/share many years ago. This thread is triggering to me! 🤣
It's obvious that Anthropic and OpenAI have pulled far ahead of everyone in the AI race. I don't see a scenario where someone else catches up including any of the big boys, but especially MSFT and META who have been responsible for most AI spending. GOOGL is still in the race, somehow, but they lost some of their top AI talent. AAPL sat out the whole CapEx thing. AMZN and GOOGL (and now META and several others) are developing their own chips, so the circlejerk financing that propped up this entire AI bubble cycle may soon come to an end especially as cheaper open AI models become more readily available. Implications of any pullback in spending, no matter how small, are just unfathomable at this point and no one is prepared for that possibility. All the CEOs will hold the line on this earnings cycle because they don't want to kill their stocks or appear to be giving up, but the writing is on the wall. It wouldn't hurt to hedge with some 6-9 months puts and dare I say NVDA and AMD are most vulnerable.
If you are 1. bullish, buy a long dated Call at a good delta typically .9. Less money to control 100 shares. And you can keep selling calls to offset the cost of buying that call. If the short call gets assigned, the long call will be exercised and the shares get called away. There is a catch here though - if MSFT shoots past the SHORT strike, your gains are capped. 2. Bearish, keep selling puts below the lower Bolinger band but given the current price you can't cover 100 shares. I wouldn't go buy a put because the company seems to be investing in building new technology. But we don't know what the ROIs are going to be. Research the sentiment in the market from other sources too. All depends on what thesis you form.
If you think this is a steal for MSFT, consider just investing in S&P 500 instead
AMD will jump way more than MSFT over next 1 year.
yes! great movie. shit was really contentious back in the day, which is why the sudden flare up (Apple essentially suing a MSFT proxy company) is so spicy. If those companies really want to go at it, the amount of antitrust and IP litigation would employ half the lawyers in the country.
It may well be that MSFT is at a good for entry (I don’t own any currently). However, there are two issues with the analysis in my opinion. Stocks and money have no memory. There may be some resistance in breaking previous highs (that is buyer psychology not fundamentals) but there is no memory when it comes to falling from peak prices. A good saying is “the trend is your friend”. A couple of months ago silver was almost $120 ounce. That is what it was, now it’s about half of that. What is far more important than historical pricing is historical ratios. And at the current PE it does look like MSFT is attractive. But the problem is the $190B in projected AI spending. That says the ratios are going to get far worse. Net income for the last year was $121 billion and total gross profit was $217B That’s a big number but net income is the free cash generated and available on an annual basis. So they intend to spend more on AI in a year then this incredibly profitable company makes in a year. And that is simply one year of AI spending. It has to continue. If MSFT was simply buying a huge $100 billion company we would discuss how much in added earnings that investment would make this year. We would trade cash on hand for higher profits and the ratios would continue to improve (PE drop) But this is reoccurring spending and the return is simply unknown. They are spending (like others) hoping to keep up, not to generate more Profits currently. They can’t spend zero they have to spend. But that just means for the future they will have less cash and their PE and other ratios will likely get ugly. They are likely to do well in the future but today’s prices and ratios are not based on longer term projections. We are likely to see continued weakness in my opinion.
I'm long 1150 shares MSFT. Seems like an opportunity to add, and I have done so recently.
If I were picking a single stock I’d prolly do NBIS right now over MSFT. Everyone likes the idea of what MSFT but people are paying for hyper growth which MSFT has shown no evidence of other than “this stock feels lower than it should be”
I’d probably buy VGT over MSFT. You still get nearly 10% exposure to MSFT.
I bought 1000 shares of MSFT when it went down to around 350!
apple is suing openAI, and MSFT own 24% of them. Im staying away, but worth a flyer
It is likely to bounce back at some point but it could be 12 months or 3 years. The large CAPEX spend plans are consuming tons of money that are not providing lots of upside growth at this point. Stocks go up when revenue and margins are expanding. Compared to a couple of years ago those components are slowing in growth, not expanding or accelerating. So, if you are patient you could well be fine. Your view of the company is enthusiastic, which is fine but may be a bit better than reality. The market rewards companies, and it is not exactly going to miss or overlook a company like MSFT, in my opinion. I do agree MSFT is a better value today than it was a year ago. Just when it will improve remains an open question.
MSFT is the known dog of the mag 7. NVDA is far more primed for positive movement imo.
This, I’d put money elsewhere. Even VOO will probably significantly outperform MSFT over many years , company just isn’t working on the hype side which does matter
I'm actually blown away that MS has lasted this long. Nobody in the industry wants to use MS products, they're just there for legacy reasons. And nobody new wants to get involved with their pig pen (no excuse for the filesystem and registry, it's like a meth head went to town in there) of an operating system. They don't have to be as bad as they are but the whole place screams VPs infighting competing for resources and bonuses. So you can put lipstick on a pig and pretend that the place gets along with each other. But they've been buying their way out of their managements incompetence for years gobbling up things people did want to use that wasn't a product of MSFT itself. I personally think MSFT is long in the tooth. It was an amazing ride but their new capex spend is the crushing blow to avoid them at all costs now. They were never that solvent in reality on their own feet and now they're launching into a thing where people still have no idea how to make profitable.
Xbox and PC segments are a small parts of their business, that's not how MSFT makes money nowadays. They make most of their money from Azure and Office 365, which are continuing to grow at a healthy pace. I'm not worried about data center buildout at the moment, since hyperscalers can just sell this compute as part of their cloud offering, which is very lucrative and in demand. Even if openai/anthropic go bankrupt, there're tons of orgs in the world who use cloud, including the emerging need for hosting their own LLMs for internal usage. There's a reason Meta is planning to go into this business too.
It's certainly a lot better than at $450, but I wouldn't call it a steal. However, aiming for a steal price might be exactly why many fail to open a position in the first place, and then watch the price grow from there and regret they did not buy it. Don't aim for perfection, aim for good enough. Historically MSFT has been trading around 35 p/e, today it's at 22. A good price to open a position.
That doesn’t mean MSFT can rely on OpenAI long term. OpenAI will have to charge based on what compute costs them. Having your own model can reduce that AI model cost.
Please look up the "generational compounders" from the 1940's, the 1970's, the 1990's, and the early 2000's. You'll notice that almost no companies generationally compound for more than a few generations... Not to say MSFT isn't an amazing company, but it's got plenty of headwinds. Xbox is struggling. The OpenAI tie-up is unwinding. Windows/PCs may look very different as smartphones continue to grow in capability (mostly iOS and Android).
I like MU better than MSFT. If MSFT had their own competent AI models so they don’t rely on OpenAI for their business AI assistants, then I would be more bullish on MSFT.
Pray for no axios till tuesday then, if market crashes on monday, MSFT will be up