MSFT

ryan178us

MSFT went from 350$ to 500$ in 1 month and someone still complained :D

vermilli21

# MSFT is such a sad sack of shit lately

Super-Activity-4675

While I think the OP is right in the long term, I don't see much changing until Capex starts drying up. This bubble will pop. My gut feeling is that it needs it Lehman moment for that to happen, which will likely be OpenAI going under and taking several companies down with it. That said, the Mag 7 has been rallying and actually become an odd point of safety in this market. I'm using this to sell covered calls on my MSFT shares (former employee) in hopes that some of them get assigned once the price ticks over 500 again. NVDA I think has the most to lose here and has pretty much maxed out its value, which is why puts make a ton of sense, especially given their desperation of late to keep the house of cards alive. That said, while I could pop in 2026, I think 2027 is a safer bet. OP, add GOOG and META to your list.

jiggolo420

MSFT red.. this pump is real and not gay

Educational-Play-465

For me, the risk isn't secondary GPU liquidation prices so much as contract renewal terms down the road. If Microsoft signed a 4-year non-cancellable compute lease, lenders are mostly underwriting MSFT's credit to service the quarterly debt. What happens when those first multi-year commitments expire in 2027-2028 and inference pricing has cratered 70%?

OptimalEnthusiasm

Everything except MSFT 😫

Next_Palpitation8401

If you guys had this port what would you do? Up bigly on MSFT and believe in it long term. The other two RDDT and META I’m no longer convinced in. https://preview.redd.it/1f4smyc9fhlh1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c9d19afa2c9d5c31abcd2a9ac04a414620a678f6

Puzzled-Rip641

MSFT, AMZN, and google are just going to use spare compute for cloud storage. Oh no stuck at 40-60% margins

care_dont

Stock price = 219$ Lets assume 8 bil annual revenue (40 billion from META and MSFT deals over assumed 5 years). Diluted number of shares: 350.000.000 Net margin = 20% (optimistic for hardware bound company) Calculated P/E from eps = 47.9 So current stock price already accounts for a lot pf revenue increase upside for the 5 years horizon. Why would you expect to rise revenue even futher than 8 billions?

par-double

No doubt. But couldn’t MSFT pivot/acquire/reneg to avoid loss, or even profit? I guess I don’t understand the business model of highly leveraged, rarely secured, compute debt in a high rate world. The upside has been accounted for, but the risk is super high.

iBoughtYourCar

I got a 390 average on MSFT and I feel pretty good about that

nhairnuattoa7

I mean, being a gamer makes you understand the companies and the market a bit better than the standard joe on the street. Most of the companies are tied into tech or consumer discentionary, so generally knowing those markets helps. But if you are actively playing their products and know the communities well, you will have a better idea about the true state of the company having played their games. I think there may be an ETF related to gaming specifically, though it would also tied into entertainment ETFs, though I would do some research on that. I've been a gamer for a loong time. I used to own NTDOY stock for a few years, and I did fairly well with the stock. Also CRSR, who manufactures hardware, though I don't think I did so well - I didn't hold it for too long. Most of these I dabbled with when I was first learning about investing. I still own MSFT, GOOGL, and NVDA, although these are more diversified plays.

Actual_Difference617

How would NBIS be able to make profit on MSFT and META contracts with rising hardware costs? Doesn’t those contracts specify how many GPU clusters are covered in the deal?

c_raw_

I hope you held that call. I made a knot off MSFT and sold it way too early 

PaperHandsTheDip

hasn't been bad recently. I bought a few weeks ago almost back to breakeven. It's gonna moon like MSFT did before EOY.

sfw_supdood

MSFT is one of the better positioned early investors, that's why I wouldn't target them. It looks like people afraid the AI trade went into Microsoft lately. They will go down like everything else if we get a crash, but come out of this better than pretty much everyone else. The real tech winners IMO will be Google, Apple, and Microsoft.

SpongEWorTHiebOb

Correction, MSFT has not issued any direct debt to fund its AI capex. SPV JV companies have issued debt but it’s quite modest in comparison to peers.

deffjams09

GAMR top 5 holdings: MSFT (~12%) NVDA (~10%) Tencent (~9.5%) AMD (~9.5%) META (~9.5%) None of these are pure play gaming stocks. They will all move more around AI news rather than gaming news. https://amplifyetfs.com/GAMR-holdings/

Spac55

$MSFT $META $AAPL $AVGO $GOOG all looking for safety and stability

JustBuyingTheDip

Zero spread on the 2040s is the line. MSFT and the Treasury both at 5.11. I add duration when that spread opens back up, not when the IMF writes a paragraph. Japan selling $30bn in a quarter is the buyer getting paid to stay home.

Ok-Nose29

RSI indicators showing AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/META all about to go on a run and NVDA about to nose dive

Pdf-_

The book was in turn of the century China, owning land was the equivalent of the s&p500. Today the equivalent would be your grandson liquidates all your MSFT shares that you bought for $40 back in the day because he wants to rent a yacht for his 25th birthday.

Beazt11123

can we get another 10% MSFT day pls?

Exists_out_of_spite

Yeah, feel like this and google is a similar play. I bought the hell outta MSFT when it was getting destroyed and sold over the last 3 weeks, made like 20k from that

prana_fish

There are clear basket trades if you look at heat maps and compare tickers intraday. Look at $AAPL and software like $MSFT / $ADBE when semis are red dicked down.

Fluffy_Bunch9357

I’d pump the brakes slightly on “cratering.” Treasuries still clear, still settle everywhere, and in an actual panic I’d bet money flows into them tomorrow like always. What the data shows is subtler and honestly more interesting: the premium people paid for that privilege is gone. Zero spread to MSFT isn’t the market saying Microsoft is safer, it’s the market saying it no longer pays extra for the sovereign label. Thats not cratering, its erosion. Erosion is slower and quieter, which is kind of why I wrote the post. Cratering gets fixed by a crisis response. Erosion just keeps going until someone rebuilds the trust, and nobody’s currently working on that part IMO.

DrDalenQuaice

**MSFT is doing fine.**

vermilli21

# MSFT is green in all this mess, yeah the market is cooked

Negative_Song_6362

In the spring everyone was bearish on MSFT. Now its up almost 40% off the lows.

Electrical-Prize5445

Unbelievable. GOOGL and MSFT actually held up SPY long enough for the other stocks to recover

Maleficent_Cap_5123

MSFT is green let’s gooo!!

Phandomtrigger

Why is MSFT pumping?

ercanbas

I love how the market is red and people are out there like “you know what, META and MSFT is a good buy”

WrongTechnician

Remember when MSFT was over 500

Molten-Helldiver

Not even MSFT is green premarket. It’s over!

CUbuffGuy

Whatever you say, I’m sure companies like MSFT growing cloud services by 43% in a year and being capacity constrained by… compute… will definitely make them stop all funding to get more compute online. Oh, and I’m sure the Capex will stop because companies who have never been profitable because of front-end loaded builds, are still not profitable.. Yes, much has changed.

CUbuffGuy

Of all the stocks to banbet u did MSFT? The counter AI giant that is the only thing holding up lol

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/WKL1054 (0W - 2L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **MSFT** ▼ | $495.07 → $475.00 | -4.1% | 1w | Lost |

Moepenmoes

Why is wednesday pronounced wensday and why is tuesday pronounced chewsday? Why not just write it like how it's pronounced? Anyway, $MSFT and $MA are my only positions I'm keeping during this volatile week

acceinvestments

Usage was never the question. Whether the revenue covers the capex is. MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL and META are running roughly $700B of capex this year. Put a five year life on that and it's about $140B a year of depreciation before anyone earns anything. Want a 10% return on the capital too and you need north of $200B of new operating profit a year out of this cohort. At $25 a month that's something like 700 million paying subs. And consumer isn't even where the money is meant to come from. Doesn't mean bubble. Just means everyone using it and the capital earning a return are two different things.

lk1191

the only similarities between MSFT and MSTR are the letters of the alphabet lol

Kickboy21

I like this bet. I also had 400k own money + 380k margin with MSFT and it worked out well. Of course SPCX and MSTR is not MSFT though 🤣 Good luck OP!

option-trader

Wait, are you saying that hyperscalers like MSFT, GOOG, META, and even AMZN have no cash? Sure, it looks like they are negative fcf, but removed that AI capex and all of them have a solid stream of cash flow, and that is the only reason why they can do what they’re doing right now.

imustbegthequestion

Where's MSFT at?

Any-Presentation5438

NIKE should have a turnaround like MSFT

Fawkinchit1

You're comparing gold with an index, when it should be Futures vs Index, your comparison doesn't make sense. Gold should be compared against individual stocks. Gold has done well though no doubt. But its only as of the last 3 years that its made up for a good amount. Its folded over 22 times since its post 2000 low, whereas a stock like MSFT folded over about 34 times. I did make a slight understatement But my main point was he has been talking about a market crash as a reason to buy gold, and its continued on upward the whole time. He was always talking about a bond market bubble as well, which is hilarious. The people that seem to praise him are mostly knuckle dragging doomsdayers. One day the big crash will happen though. But Schiff has been wrong year after year about a stock crash.

Riskismyapellido

good points! Well illustrated! Nothing against it, but liquidity most likley comes back as time goes own and the stock usually moves everyday. Slippage is real, but in a MAG7 Stock this is usually not the case. With options, timing is everything. If META announces they really can sell excess compute at elevated prices, this LEAPS will be more valuable no matter how high the spread may be. I suspect META is going thru the GOOG, AMAZN or MSFT phase. Months, maybe 1.5 years of nothing but continous drain and then it rips! But yes, liquidity considerations are important, u are right

HeyYoChill

The market overreacts all the time, man. Look at MSFT: -17% one month, +30% over two months. There's no enlightened rationalism at work here, it's just sheep panicking from one side of the pen to the other.

AdeptnessLive4966

Depends on your risk tolerance. If you want to be a bit safer, invest in the big guys like GOOG and MSFT. You won't 100x in 3-5 years, but you will get consistent growth. Those companies always come out on top, even if they start late. If you are very risk tolerant, then go with individual stocks. Based on your post, what I believe, is that you dont really know what you are getting into. You are looking st the past years and thinking you can make a lot of money. Stick to the big guys until you do some real research that doesn't involve asking Reddit for a broad opinion.

Traditional_Ad_2348

I think GOOGL is too caught up with datacenter build out atm. IBM is the only large tech company that is really focused on quantum whereas the hyperscalers mostly invest in quantum as a sideshow. Literally haven’t heard anything from MSFT GOOGL or AMZN in regards to quantum since last spring, but IBM CEO is always preaching quantum when I see him interviewed on CNBC.

Pin-Last

those MSFT dips to 350 were the super-megacap trading opportunities of the decade

superhappykid

Everyone here arguing what's going on with NVDA stock on Monday but anyone with a brain will know you just buy memory stocks. It's the obvious play. Just like when everyone was trying to figure out if they should sell Google or buy MSFT because they own a large chunk of open AI a few years ago. The obvious play was just to buy NVDA

Accidental-Genius

MSFT isn’t going anywhere.

Puzzleheaded_War6102

Hyperscalers don’t have cash. They are in fact debt financing and using off balance sheet finance and all have negative FCF except MSFT.

BriackYOLO

MSFT isnt borrowing money to pay rent 🤡

BriackYOLO

Neither were Uber or Amazon for years as you know. Tech is hook everyone first and charge them later They don't need profits yet when big tech is acting like a full time sponsor for their GPU addiction while the MSFT cash printer goes brrr

nobertan

Drop MSFT, add Honeywell. MSFT aren’t serious in this realm and only punish joke papers to get gov funding to piss up the wall. Only to buy Honeywell q-bits for demo work.

MikeCheck_CE

GOOGL, AMZN, and MSFT.... For security reasons, they'll all invest in quantum at some point, but they won't be reliant on it. There's a few quantum pure plays out there but they're still all extremely early and speculative. There's no clear front runner yet

nokom

MSFT.

icydragon_12

I'm a professional analyst. All this talk about the "massive" debt issuance is moronic. They're big companies. What's important is the ratio of debt to equity. GOOG: <0.2x MSFT: <0.3x AMZN: <0.3x META: <0.4x If you think these are high leverage levels... nothing is investable to you.

Synaps4

The obvious one is SPCX but on a non-troll level: MSFT

Vincent_van_Guh

Imagine seeing META this far off of its 52-week high and not buying long-dated atm calls. Like we didn't just see this shit flip with MSFT.

miniscule_rycegrain

I really think they are set to beat earnings. I think I might sell some of the position leading up to earnings, hopefully make some money on the IV increasing. But overall, yes I agree about MSFT! (and nvidia) I think those are *real* data points that their execution is good and promises are coming to fruition. I hope they've already diluted enough for now and don't announce more dilution (like AAOI just did) Basically, I hope that all the bad info has been priced in. But I will likely trim the position down to 10k or 7k if it rises before earnings (fingers crossed) We even saw with sandisk, that it took a couple of weeks to rebound after bad earnings, so with a jan 2027 strike, I have some cushion. Overall, I am a bit worried about an AI bubble, so Im itching for my avgo, meta, and iren calls to print some and then im going into cash haha

PrinceDX

I’ll be jumping in IREN but after earning and no way I’d buy calls. BTC is going to hurt revenue but they delivered to MSFT which was far more important than what is going on with BTC. September is historically a slow month as well so you would have been better waiting IMHO

NoCommonDog

OH, My mistake, I thought this was WSB where people gamble on 0dte and shit like Virgin Galactic hoping to score a multi-bagger on the flimsiest of hypothesis. All I'm saying is grab some SLS exposure because either up or down the name is going to be volatile in the next few weeks as they are on the cusp of concluding a drug trial that will either a) lead to a buy-out and possibly 25-30 share price b) lead to a complete wipe out of the equity holders and thus an opportunity to take the other side. Pick a side and put down a few thousand. After months of sitting around watching NVDA, MSFT etc do nothing It can't hurt to "Live a little".

Swred1100

Straight SPY market weight capped is, in its own way, already incorporating momentum, as the fastest growing companies/stocks will take up more and more of the index. The argument to go equal weight is to increase diversification, not to increase gains. They also aren’t all the same baskets of stocks. MTUM and QUAL aren’t S&P, they are MSCI USA which includes medium caps. Also, they do not hold all 500 S&P companies, they hold the ones that align with whatever their goal is. ie: if RPV doesn’t believe MSFT is value, it may not hold any MSFT.

zonk84

This is actually a bit of a sneaky space, I think, for them -- it's hard to get specifics because they don't line-item their spending on what I think used to be called "walmart labs", but you *can* see some serious money in the technical development space.... though, that's been a lot flatter than it was \~5 years ago. I'm *not* saying I expect them to necessarily, say, nudge into cloud competition with AMZN, MSFT, etc. Neither do I expect them to acquire (but I wouldn't say never!) post-bubble AI/LLM startups. But from subscription services to delivery to etc? Feels like the latter-day Walmart is pretty solid at the basic concept "We won't be first, but we're fine being 2nd or 3rd or etc and just doing it well".

Hypnot1se

Companies with distribution and scale moats. The ones that own the infrastructure to become the tollbooth once AGI is commoditized. Any of the scalers right now based on reasonable valuations and/or if you like their overall corporate strategy and prospects. I think that the ones that will likely do very well are Google & Meta. In the *longer* term physical AI is going to be transformative for Amazon which could undergo extremely significant margin expansion as they automate their business. AWS is also obviously due to capture massive scale from AWS as time goes on, though the margins are likely not going to be that high and are probably not going to expand that much. MSFT near time is very well positioned in terms of enterprise capture but longer term I am concerned that as AGI becomes commoditized it is going to impact margins which MSFT is quite reliant upon. People won't pay big dollars for something they can just run locally with a free open weights model long term. That's why I see it as being a case of scale + distribution since I'm not counting on margins being particularly high. It'll just be do with traditional software scaling like zero marginal cost as AI becomes vastly more efficient for 'everyday tasks'. I don't think there's any "bubble" even in hardware or memory, by the way. A bubble is speculative and this isn't speculation, it's just in an upcycle. Basically, although I think that companies in the memory industry are going to decline in valuation over the coming year, I don't think it's a "bubble" it's just a normal hardware cycle. Assuming that happens, anyway. *NFA DYOR ETC*

Rosella2562

MSFT rallying so much after open only to go red again by EOD 🤦🏻‍♀️ My fault for getting fooled 100 times within the past year 🙃

vermilli21

MSFT is about to go red, what a shit stock

AwakenedBeast616

Wow MSFT

pooterssssssssss

Is SNDK the next MSFT? Meaning goes red small on massive green days?

WrongTechnician

MSFT dropping like a rock for no reason?

GorudenFuriza

so MSFT calls?

vermilli21

If MSFT can some how get to 500 today I will go on a rewarding spree

Late-Cow-6607

MSFT bags were heavy but GOOG broke my back

PhotonicsIsFried

Traaaaaap. MSFT is green premarket

PhotonicsIsFried

I thought it might be a green day but MSFT is also green premarket. It's going to be a hard dump.

h1d3u

Every time MSFT goes down it's a joyous occasion.

WrongTechnician

I know I need the OpenAI IPO to pump my MSFT bags

WorkingGuy99percent

pop for who? and what is the timeline....daily's are gambling, why this space has "bets" in the name From this video, it would be ChatGPT and Anthropic....but they aren't publicly traded yet. The GPU and compute providers are trying to extend services and shared costs to the everyday scalers, not just the hyper scalers. Think about every company that has laptops and pays MSFT licenses of $250/year for every employee. That is a boatload of money to AI providers, but not a HUGE deal for business's costs. You have ten employees that need computer...you pay an additional $2500 to make them way more efficient. Realtors, accountants, construction, government, design, manufacturing sales and management personnel, pretty much any white color job is suddenly going to be paying a similar yearly licensing fee to AI providers. PLTR is a winner here in this space....but they lock in others (ChatGPT or Anthropic models) and they get part of that fee. Amazon, Meta, Coreweave, MicroSoft, Google are also going to increase revenue for YEARS on what they spend now. This "fear" that came out on hardware (GPU and memory) that said they were going to out innovate the value of two year old computer was completely wrong. I know Coreweave came out last earnings and said their built compute from 6 years ago is worth more than even they thought, let alone a lot more than the negative predictions came out 6 to 9 months ago. Here: AI answer to a question Yes. CoreWeave and other infrastructure providers have reported that older AI compute assets (like 2020-era Nvidia A100 chips) are retaining economic value and utilization far longer than pessimistic models predicted. Management noted that legacy hardware is fully booked for cost-effective inference tasks and renewed on long-term contracts extending toward 2029

vermilli21

I’m gonna need MSFT to announce they cured cancer tomorrow

vsmand1

What’s your average on MSFT?

VotedOut

The individual companies that are trading at low forward P/E ratios relative to their historic forwards are likely either CYCLICAL (semi-conductor and computer hardware companies) or mature companies spending now spending heavy on CapEx (such as META, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN - their Price/FCF ratios are now more expensive than they've ever been) . There's a reason that one of the charts I linked is the Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio (current price / 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings) rather than just plain P/E ratio or 12-month forward P/E ratio. Semiconductors companies are experiencing a period of abnormally high profits and margins right now that I question the sustainability of. There's a very good chance that companies like Nvidia and Micron will have a margin crash and earnings crash sometime in 2027-2029 as data centers come online, supply begins to meet demand, and then supply exceeds demand because they over-built. As a rule of thumb, if you see a company's revenue and earnings shoot up very fast within a very short time period, you should be suspicious about the sustainability of the revenue & earnings. The P/E ratios of banks were fairly normal-looking and their earnings were growing well just before they got wrecked in the Great Recession. You had to dig a bit deeper underneath to see what was going on. With all that said, no I don't have puts on companies that have P/E ratios within a normal range incase my thesis that their earnings are not sustainable is wrong. But my suspicion about their earnings sustainability is enough to keep me out of investing in them, as at least 2-3 years of earnings growth is priced into them, and I don't want to be holding them incase the market starts re-pricing them to forecasting a cyclical decline or recession.

PharmDinvestor

Is Zuckerberg has failed , how will you describe Steve Balmer ? I or how about the billions MSFT spent on failed projects that got axed ?

boarders_app

Right? I started investing during COVID. I bought MSFT at the VERY BOTTOM of the dip. Couldn't have gotten luckier. Then the price started going up as we were overcoming the first wave. Then there was talk of a second wave coming. Obviously that means that stock prices will go down. So I should sell my shares, wait for it to dip, and buy in again. Well, it never dipped and I never bought back in. It was that day I decided to never listen to the internet and just keep buying. No one knows when the market will go up or down. So just keep buying.

bearhunter429

#Let us pray, brothers and sisters of the green candle. O mighty Lord of the Canadian wilderness, we beseech thee: let the tech stocks rise tomorrow. Let NVDA roar like a grizzly, let AMD charge like a moose through a Tim Hortons, let MSFT climb the mountain, and let the Nasdaq ascend unto the heavens. May there be no unexpected earnings disasters, no hawkish Fed nonsense, no geopolitical tomfoolery, and absolutely NO “profit-taking” bullshit. Let every dip be bought, every breakout be real, and every premarket futures contract pointeth upward. #LMAO🤌

MyNi_Redux

How do you mean, "call MSFT"?

Huffnpuff9

They were at ATH around May 27th with a p/e of >45...as they posted a bad quarter and weak guidance, with a new catalyst of oil. That's crazy. That's when I sold all my WMT and COST. Moved it over to MSFT and Semiconductors since their p/e was <30. Don't blame the market, the good plays are right in front of you sometimes.

beerstearns

Not doing the security updates on my work laptop until MSFT back to $500

codeisprose

META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, maybe BRK.B as a hedge

rain_maker15

MSFT, NFLX, GOOGL, NVDA, WMT- Walmart

liquidtv78

META, dead to me at this point. MSFT too.. still holding MU and MSTR, but all tickers that start with M youre on fucking notice

CLYDEFR000G

I think MSFT was fairly valued at $500. It’s just shitting itself back down to obscurity. Hell an analyst that gets paid way more than me has this thing at a price target of $700.

vermilli21

Bought a couple MSFT lottos here

Cav829

I can't wait for the same people who passed on MSFT at insane discounts to pass on MWT at a 23% discount and bemoan it.

option-trader

For now it should work. Who had money in 2007? Those homes were being purchased on hope. At least the hyper scalers like GOOG, META, and MSFT have the cashflow to buy these data centers.

haze_from_deadlock

If you liked MSFT at $503 you'll love it at $473

CLYDEFR000G

MSFT crushes earning and is still down on the 1 year chart…. Ffs

MrCoolGuy42

Nothing like buying MSFT calls on the one week a year they rally and watching them die a slow and painful death the next few weeks