MSFT

No_Current3675

KLAC LRCX ASML maybe GOOG. Next week after shit bombs on MSFT GOOG capex.

Walternotwalter

Hold and keep buying. When the dust settles OpenAI and Anthropic will be subsidiaries of MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, TSLA/SPCX, or GOOG. These Chinese bots are simply spreading FUD. The sell off is a blip on the road to an SPX over 10K next year. There is no reason to be afraid of anything unless governments try to actually pay down debt and that isn't going to happen. The sell off has amounted to 6% on the NASDAQ and 2.5% on the SPX. These aren't anything.

ButtholeAnalogy

I have a feeling we somehow get a 1% gap up on Monday, pump into FOMC, dump Weds afternoon, get saved by MSFT earnings in the evening, only to get fucked again thurs before open by GDP & PCE

Ok_Entrepreneur_dbl

There were stocks that recovered faster! Looking at an index for recovery is not the way to go. Looking at stocks like MSFT where they recovered fairly quickly!

MtGloomy0420

That’s hilarious…my $NVDA, $MSFT, $AMD, and $TSM shares completely dismantled your theory.

Odd-Web4113

I still love the AI space, but specific parts of it. I do like the memory and certain chip makers and Google/MSFT. I have not gotten into neo-clouds b/c that is where I think the debt will go bad. But, Blue Owl and the likes will just take over the data center from there. So, I think the debt and certainly the no wanting data centers is hype driven by politics and will dominate the next two weeks. Reality is governments will all need their own global infrastructure of data centers and it is a national security need on many levels. This is a multi-year/decade transition. China and Japan have huge plans. So does the US...it is just when Trump says it you have all the politicians trying to take the other side. But, in this case...I agree we need to lead and be in front of this infrastructure necessity.

Mediocre_Gap2236

Well that’s not my job to figure out. Personally I think we’re gonna have a horrible next 5 years I’ve dumped my life savings into MSFT GOOG NVDA SPCX hoping it’ll pay for my early career loss

DrHarrisonLawrence

MSFT and GOOG are producing profits on their capex. Haven’t looked into other Mag7s but if you’re making a profit on capex, you’re going to continue increasing capex. And if you continue increasing capex, neoclouds are typically are typically going to bounce back

Mediocre_Gap2236

How many real businesses worth Trillions failed in the dotcom boom? You realise we are talking the likes of the most profitable companies on earth financing this build out right? Google Amazon MSFT Meta SPCX

zxc123zxc123

I think it's find to own most of the hardware makers or "shovels" type in a commodity boom as long as the investor understands the name of the game isn't really the "long-term" or "hold forever" investing but a trade or short-term investment until the bubble pops. There is no saying that NVDA will end up like INTC if and when the AI capx/buildout/bubble ends, but I certainly wouldn't want to be part of that story. I bought INTC during the GFC lows (not the .COM one) and had to wait 10+ years for a good returned (honestly lucked the fuck out too). So I'm not playing that game this time around even if NVDA has CUDA, has diversified into investments, and is lead by Jensen instead of old INTC ~~bums~~ boomers. My AI longs: GOOG/MSFT/VOO

limpozzman

What will you do when MSFT crashes 

aemus001

Same, i was holding GOOG and AMZN, but decided to divest and just hold MSFT as I believe we'll have a bit of an economic contraction here soon and B2B companies like NET, and MSFT will weather it just fine.

FreelyHumdrumSchism

I’d lean GOOG. The capex ramp is a bet on future infrastructure, which lines up with where I think the market’s headed next couple years. MSFT’s consumer sentiment stuff is noise, it’s really the slower AI spend that gives me pause on their near-term upside.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Itch

Enterprise is stuck to MSFT and OK with paying for their shitty Copilot or expensive GitHub Copilot. They are perhaps the only hyperscaler where AI is paying off. The problem is, the secret is out and I don’t know how much more the stock can run. 

Castopliani

upvote for MSFT

Castopliani

ok everyone GOOG MSFT or AMZN

ButtholeAnalogy

MSFT earnings prolly run up til that then back to dumping

UranusInspector

Bro he literally said MSFT andddddd AVGO.... That's literally maxed out diversifying!

Putrid_Meal_3231

Fundamentals are like bringing a textbook to a knife fight in this market You're better off watching volume and sector rotation for a 2-3 month play, not PE ratios. That said, I'd probably just add to MSFT if it dips more and call it a day

KingGarunas

Puts on MSFT, calls on AMZN

ButtholeAnalogy

They gonna pump it one more week into earnings and midterms. My guess is we see the real dump after MSFT and AAPL report

_Netgirth

Worked on MSFT dip

Rameist2

Holding MSFT, NOW & RDDT calls for earnings. God help me.

acadia11x

No, the big players are already eating this isn’t like .com , there were no big players , they became big players because of .com. .com was diverse therefore it favored a culling of losers and then consolidation in many industries as the way businesses functioned transformed. The big players already exist in the AI revolution , they are the ones driving the bus, they aren’t looking for a pie to eat, they cooked the pie themselves and may offer some crumbs off the table. They have already started partitioning the world based on their respective super stacks. Those vertical integrations you see done by SpaceX, Google is an example of that. AMZN, meta and MSFT also have a seat at this table … those companies will not consolidate but they drive and have already won. Apple tried to create a partnership with Meta , or trying to be a player… but not really they have massive attention economics stack but don’t qualify in the foundation and ownership of the future means of production that the hypers created by taking over the worlds compute. Which only grows with AI and our agentic ultra integrated electronified world. This was a rigged game not a diverse open free for all like .com. If you lose it’s because you weren’t given some crumbs off that table.

Top_Category_2526

I trade from 2018 to 2025, my losing rate was 99%, got tired of that shit Bought a pistol with one bullet, then sold everything and bought MSFT at $380, and it works I didn't sleep for days, depression was at all time high, i was having chest pain, but it works I'm 50% MSFT and AVGO now, i'm tired of buying random bs

aemus001

Loaded up on some more $MSFT and $NET...

greenpride32

I'm not an investor in SPCX and don't look that close at their financials. I used them as an example because their small scale makes it easy to extract the figures compared to AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT. But a 1GW AI datacenter is around $60-72b to construct - probably closer to the lower end when they built Colossus 1 and 2 - and they are combined around 1.3 to 1.4GW. About 60% is compute infrastructure and 40% is physical infrastucture; figure you depreciate former at 5-7 years and latter ranging in 8-39 years. And well there is a ton of room for margin here. Look back to the big hyperscalers AMZN/MSFT - they've been doing this for past decade and a half on CPU based compute - look at their top and bottom line trajectory and share price that followed it. It is lucrative and money printing. The $90b figure could be including other business segments, and also further datacenter expansion beyond what's currently online.

ChewbaccaIsBear

WED we got FOMC and later in the day GOOGL+MSFT earnings, so, A DOUBLE TAP

Particular_Big_3104

Since you absolutely suck at trend reading, you have to stop gambling and simply invest. Buy at least 5 different stock, equal amounts to start and go away. They can be V AMZN SPCX MSFT META JPM SHOP NBIS CRWD GOOGL AAPL etc. It is so hard to lose money over a few year time period with stocks like those. My longest hold is AMZN since 1998 with a cost of $.78/share. Stop gambling, continue investing. There, that's your advice. Anything to do with trying to outsmart the market (like options) is doomed to fail yet again. Please learn.

KingOfTheBritons96

MU and MSFT may be the only two stocks propping up the market

internetsoci0path

is anyone else in MSFT shorts rn

Ordinary_Material175

Wednesday is a huge day. Expect a pump with MSFT and GOOG earnings plus FOMC announcing no rate hike.

Beneficial-Age-9293

I think tech will rebound on MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN next week.

internetsoci0path

i need MSFT to drop literally a DOLLAR

internetsoci0path

MSFT 520 at closeeeeeeee

internetsoci0path

MSFT red by close

internetsoci0path

MSFT red by close btw

internetsoci0path

MSFT 0dte puts

Emilio___Molestevez

sure it is bud! $GOOG $MSFT $META earnings data all fake! very sneaky!

Panthera__Tigris

People are not used to such kind of radical transformations and rapid movement of capital. Which is why they think every such innovation is a bubble. But things move a lot faster these days. It's a race. MSFT, GOOG, AMZN etc. are not morons despite what the average Dunning-Kruger bear thinks. They know its a race. Which is why they are spending so much. That being said, some companies will fail. And when they do, they tank the market. So you have to pick the winners and still be prepared for 20-30% drawdowns. In fact, such corrections are healthy.

illinformed-will

you do realize META/GOOG/MSFT/AMZN and IREN/NBIS/APLD/CRWV financials and business models have nothing in common, right ? First can cut capex and swim in FCF next quarters covering their debt interests then some, second can't cut capex or they debt fueled house of cards crumble

_Photonics_

Maybe MSFT saves the market for another quarter

ReturnOfFrank

I love how Apple is the AI "safety" play when it's P/E ratio is floating around 40 while MSFT near 30, AMZN is at 21, and GOOG is sub 17. Like yes I know AI build out is scary and could go bad, but even if all of it went tits up, these companies are all still cash generating monsters.

-Melkon-

"TPUs are quite unique on one hand" Is it? All bigtech has their own versions (under a different name, since TPU is copyrighted) of it: \- Amazon: Trainium \- MSFT: Maia \- Meta: Mtia \- AMD: Instinct \- etc. Google was the first who made it and they have the highest saturation. They certainly have an advantage for now, but that will go away as the competition picks up production. Back then they simply didn't need such a chip.

FartPolluter

META and Google dont have the cash to finance it. META is creating a new class of share to dilute shareholders, it had negative free cash flow and uses a myriad of techniques to avoid reporting the true scale of its debt and liabilities. Both Google and MSFT look like theyre about to do the same thing. What META has is an army of bagholders, analysts and LLMs to tell you everything is fine, that are happy to pay for Zuck's build out. Neoclouds are absolutely more risky than that but that doesnt make META a buy, or makes AI capex less risky

xRedStaRx

Finally a good discussion thread on WSB, I thought everyone was a regard. A lot of the things you say are true, but they are only largely true for AI labs, not for hyperscalers. Meta, MSFT, GOOG, they dont just make money from the direct bill an enterprise or customer pays to use a certain AI model on their servers, there is also ancililary revenue and improved returns per customer on the other services as well because of AI, like for Meta you have better retenetion from customers on instagram, better targeted ads, or more likely to use facebook more, or use some of their AI enabled hardware when they launch in the future. Or for MSFT you are more likely to use Co-pilot in their enterpeise software now which improves the product revenue, not to mention the overall productivity impact on the entire global economy and companies that is reflected in the stock market more broadly. Also your numbers are overstated. Goldman estimates about $1.8tn only cumulative spend by end of 2026, and about $7tn by end of 2030. You also assume that the entire buildout is paid upfront, these companies are already making significant revenue growth this year from the buildouts that were in place last year and part of this year, so they can see the marginal ROI already paying off, which is why they are continuing to spend.

_AT198

I own it too. 1/2 the size. Concerned everything is priced in. The MSFT deal, the 2 new data centers in spain and Australia for 2029. Need earnings catalyst and the market to turn green after FOMC. Have no choice but to stay patient. If $24 floor doesn’t hold… i hate averaging down losers.

what_could_gowrong

Just one QQQ put exp next Friday strike 690. One more leg down until Google, MSFT and AMZN earnings that could address wall street's concerns on AI valuation

Street-Corporation

MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL are in a race to the death to have the god AI. Whoever gets it wins everything. They’ve moved the R&D off their balance sheets and are propping up the frontier labs while also owning all of the compute those labs need to develop the god AI. Those four companies are arguably the four greatest companies of all time, they collect more rent than anyone else across all domains of business. If you even know how to say hello world in Python you know how powerful these tools are. If you think there will be less computers in the world in a year or three years or five years then short the market. I just am seeing a world where literally everything is computer. Everything we do is code already and AI creates code faster and increasingly better than any human. I don’t think the market crashes if the big four decide to stop spending on semis I think there’s a 10% contraction but those companies are still making insane quarterly revenues and growing.

Spac55

It’s earnings time. All semi & big tech give big earnings. Last $MU earnings reported $52 Billion One $NVDA GPU need 8 HBM from $MU Why people use Neo Cloud? Because big cloud players $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG their capacity is full AI technology is not Neo cloud, AI not go away $SPY $QQQ

5_star_man_atee

I want to short MSFT so bad just waiting a little more lol

xoutkcn

Yup. I think so. Next week could be stressful because of the upcoming earnings and these are a lot! MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SNDK, SKHY, STX, INTC…

aemus001

$MSFT might survive... Not dependent as much on consumers when that headwind hits.

xoutkcn

Next Week MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN will publish their Earnings. The Capexes are important to see if they invest in Datacenters. If they do, there is a demand for the MU Ram. Next Week is highly important. Besides the Mag 7, there are other Earnings from SNDK, INTC, SKHY, STX and RMBS.

swagmans69

Bought GOOG and MSFT and they instantly dropped. Lol

Top_Category_2526

Microsoft was my only position, i bought at $380 this year with all my money, now 50% MSFT and 50% AVGO I'm tired of everything

Commercial_Sound1448

Will MSFT earnings pump my dear lost baby NOKIA?

PoobliusFlavius

real dump on MSFT por favor grassy ass

FartPolluter

This aint a dump btw. It happened last earning. MSFT accountants appeared like the Knights of Rohan to slaughter the poor, impoverished bers

Azurebbit

Might be a tad early but hopefully this will work. Trimming MSFT after the run up I get

Top_Category_2526

I sold 50% of my MSFT today and i bought 50% of AVGO My losing is rate is 99%

greenpride32

The importance of date of death is that it would be your step up cost basis. Looking back at MSFT, it traded around $400 in August 2024. Today MSFT is trading around $525/share. For simplicity let's say those values are fixed at $400 (well in reality whatever this number is will be fixed) and $525. If you decided to sell, you would receive $525 times number of shares sold and assuming taxes are not immediately withheld. Then for the your tax return for the year, you'd have to pay your capital gains rate of $125 times number of shares sold. If you believe MSFT will continue to grow into the future, you might want to consider holding it. It has also been increasing distributions consistently. The benefit here is MSFT has been outperforming SP500 long term and you don't have the tax liability now. But if you're more of an index and ETF investor who doesn't want single stock exposure, probably best to sell it and stick to your plan.

Confident_Double1392

The comment section being bullish on MSFT means your play will probably print. Keep yoloing on margin. https://preview.redd.it/mivdra5181xh1.jpeg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c500830b9becdda617bbbfe49c5ef27d90817103

Thisispaartaaa

Not stoned yet...still a tad early in the day. The debt doesn't matter when you can service it, and when your financial backers are the likes of NVDA, AMZN, MSFT....Think of it like a car loan when you are 16 years old....you can barely afford it, but your parents (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN etc,) will foot the bill, if you can't pay the bill. They have even gone so far as to say "hey, if you can't sell all the power, we will buy it!" the debt is secured, and doesn't matter in the sense that your thinking. You think that the debt is going to wipe out these companies. That can't be further from the truth. You NEED debt to grow a business in most cases. No business owner in their right mind, would take out so much debt, that it would bankrupt the company. It might happen to a few companies, but not every single one of them. The data center companies who already have facilities, with power running to them, are going to command premium pricing, when everybody figures out there is not enough power to run all these chips.

NerdSlamPo

People said the same about MSFT and then it popped

Pure-Consequence5840

Why MSFT is not bleeding

Good_Application6245

MSFT: i am better than all of you

spilledonwhite

I actually think he did well buying the MSFT FUD earlier this year and now he is overconfident

Fast_Reputation_5666

How is MSFT so strong?

HaveTwoBananas

Might go MSFT puts if these capex fears spread

powerboner

You know we’re fucked if MSFT is green.

Prudent-Corgi3793

Yes and no. This is quite common for tech companies. The larger Mag 7 companies actually pay out more in stock-based compensation than Tesla. However, for the Mag 7 peers: - Stock-based compensation makes up a much smaller proportion of their net incomes because they are highly profitable - The non-operating income sources (such as mark-to-market investment gains) make up much more significant distortions, especially in recent quarters, to the point that I think non-GAAP earnings is a better metric here - All of them except for AMZN and TSLA are pretty good about aggressively repurchasing shares that go towards SBC anyway. AMZN occasionally has done so in prior quarters (most recently 2022). Tesla has never done so. Here are the the most recent data I have, which is actually a bit lagged (earnings period ending June 30 for all except NVDA, which ended in July). My source didn't have non-GAAP NI for NVDA or META populated yet. | Company | GAAP NI | Non-GAAP NI | Non-Op Inc | SBC | Share Repurchases | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | NVDA | $59.69B | ? | $8.00B | $2.03B | $22.13B | | AAPL | $29.79B | $28.11B | $0.527B | $3.40B | $28.32B | | GOOGL | $112.19B | $35.01B | $99.62B | $7.96B | $6.57B | | MSFT | $35.77B | $35.29B | $4.29B | $3.12B | $4.58B | | AMZN | $62.65B | $21.53B | $54.61B | $6.04B | $0B | | META | $15.85B | ? | $0.764B | $7.66B | $4.28B | | TSLA | $1.11B | $1.16B | $1.01B | $1.15B | $0B |

Wallstreetboycott

More like, look at the other earnings today for both Mag7’s. Neither of them had big beats. The entire market is now walking the tightrope in anticipation for next week’s remaining Mag7s earnings. Make or break as the S&P is dangling holding onto the latest ATH range. It’s looking very weak unless Google, MSFT or AMZN can have a big beat.

AcademicStandard3701

Lmao not the Microsoft paint picture!! I might buy MSFT leaps now

iliveasimplelife

My heart is weak lol Followed a whale's $63M MSFT calls position earlier this year on the dip. I was down 50% at one point, whale was down 70% on those. I paperhanded mine day it hit green. They 10x'ed 10 days before their expiry. I'm just not meant for trading.

CapitalDifficultt

anyone in MSFT calls?

Vlisa

Should be puts on MSFT all day, their new ARM laptops are ass

Vlisa

Should be puts on MSFT all day, their new ARM laptops are ass

Prudent-Corgi3793

I wrote a more detailed post below. For most companies like GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, etc., non-GAAP is much better. It eliminates the distortions and the stock-based compensation is a rounding error that you won't notice. For TSLA, this is not a rounding error. In fact, sometimes it makes up almost all of their net income.

SkillNo1358

3 more datacenters will be delivered to MSFT by 2027 Q1, besides Anthropic customer leak, there was also a bloomberg analysis leak that stated t hey still have META and ORCL lined up. They also own the land, software, and hardware unlike strawman CRWV

walking_in_the_dark_

You want tickers. GOOG buy around $310-320 AVGO $320 or below, might even go lower. NBIS start buying around $140. AMZN would wait for $235-240. AMD between $460-500 range. META, MSFT, TSLA, PLTR not very high upside at this prices either.

Salty-Fishman

I sold MSFT in 1996 after losing money.

Wide-Contribution-29

when’s your expiration? I also bought MSFT and PLTR leaps, that both turned out very profitable. im on the lookout for more like these. the smart thing was I also dumped my DRAM leaps which have since lost a lot more value.

No_Current3675

MSFT depends on all these semis, as does all tech. do you seriously envision a world with less tech going forward? just yesterday i gave Claude a PITA task that would have taken a team of 2 or 3 people at least a full day of work. Claude did it in 5 min.

No_Current3675

semis dip is a golden opportunity. it's like MSFT back in july.

obb223

You have 10 days for MSFT to drop 7% going into earnings. Total gambling. Dumb as rocks.

Top_Category_2526

I've been buying only MSFT, watching porn all day and crying at night but i'm green for the first time since 1978

iBoughtYourCar

Dude with 10k in OTM MSFT puts had about 3 mins to turn a profit this morning LMAO you bers are something else

Rosella2562

Rare sentences: “Should’ve held my MSFT calls, it was the move 😩😳”

Sukontolegowo

GOOG becomes the next MSFT in terms of price movement, calls it is

SuggamadexRocuronium

He’s a vulture. Sometimes he hits it out the park with BK, CMG, MSFT. But he mostly loses and cuts his losses.

SteakEater137

Google took up MSFT's mantle of inverse SPY, huh? Sure, why not, theyre just at the core of the entire AI buildout and own large shares of SPCX which are inexplicably up like 10% today

Successful_Ad9700

I have friends in MSFT and their consensus is this goes ATH 580 post earnings. Your puts are cooked

Smallest-Yeet

The random MSFT stop loss hunting drops need to be studied

Separate_Baker7280

Long MSFT, my financial models run on excel.

Mediocre_Gap2236

I think this earnings cycle will buck the trend We got meta today, GOOG MSFT end of month , NVDA next month All of them are gonna show Sustained Revenue growth on AI that I think will change the way market prices things. This quarter the intelligence of AI went vertical. Agentic AI is commonplace and is using so much compute, and has loads of demand from corporates.

Resident-Juice9763

He’s gonna breakeven at best, MSFT already retraced half the move

Skilledthunder

Saw someone full port MSFT puts, so im gonna spend all day consulting the dark arts to spite that one guy specifically, and for no real reason

FickleBumblebeee

MMs and hedge funds are clearly trying to prevent either of them rising- they're gonna sell or short again as soon as market opens and then it will be a fight for them to go green. Particularly for NBIS. Very similar to what they did to MSFT for the first six months of this year.

Neat-Shirt-3223

He bought MSFT on the dip. Just like Target, Netflix can turn around once sentiment shifts from bearish to bullish. Up to their new leadership. Do not bore viewers and do not make the experience worse.