Reddit Posts
All BS aside, how’s calls on MSFT looking this week?
Me going into earnings week with $5000 in SMCI, MSFT, & AMD calls
Need to practice option trading with paper money
Who’s ready to burn their life savings this week
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
This is a small dumb little thing but it's HUGE in its Implications - Google Puts Chrome On Windows ARM - Effectively Seeding Chromebooks
Who’s buying MSFT & AMD calls for earnings?
I took too long to move my MSFT stocks and now I don't know if I should wait after the weekend to buy.
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia's Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses 🚀
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia’s Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses
Wall Street Newsletter S03E06: All-time highs are here. What's next?
Poor Man’s Covered Call What it is, why I’m doing it with $30k worth of MSFT calls , and why you should consider trying it. TLDR at TOP
MSFT has now overtaken AAPL in market cap.
Some predictions for Microsoft, Palantir, AMD, Amazon, Spotify and Tesla.
Is it normal for the index funds to be weighted this heavily by mega caps?
What are your top picks for the top performance stocks for this year?
Epic V Continues to Show How Little Risk Exists
Has anyone seriously looked at Global Foundries [$GFS]
$CBDW News 1606 Corp. CEO Attends Consumer Electronics Show (CES) For Collaboration Meetings
$MSFT has potentially created a "new battery" with AI - Musk / $TSLA Says Interesting
Top 10 S&P 500 companies by market cap weighting since 1980. MSFT is the reining champ for persistence.
The true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
A true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
Lumen $LUMN Insider & Big Boys Buying Spree Post Dividend Halt, Kate Johnson & Co. Personally Buying the Dip
LUMEN $LUMN INSIDER & BIG BOYS BUYING SPREE POST DIVI HALT, KATE JOHNSON & CO. BACK THE DIP HARD!
And the AI Show Goes On - GPT 4.5 Turbo Leaks - $MSFT - Its Real And Available -https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai
Taiwan Semi (TSMC) will be 'back to strong growth in 2024' - JPMorgan (holding small position)
Potential for massive shorts/puts tmrw (Jan 4th) after the release of the Epstein List (likely today after market close, Jan 3rd)?
If Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s list is this a great put buying opportunity for MSFT?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on the Jeffrey Epstein Client List sound like a bad idea?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s client list sound like a bad idea?
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if Buffet needs a new #2.
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if buffet needs a new #2.
How would you spend $1500 if you regularly forget stocks exist for months at a time? How do you decide which stocks are to be held and which losses cut?
Keep an eye on $MSFT (potential put money making opportunity)
If you had $40k to invest right now, what would you do with it?
The NYTs is suing Microsoft and I think there is a profitability play on their stocks
New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
Do you ever buy stocks outside of the indexes and Mag 7 near all time highs?
Question regarding this type of Play Option?
The biggest lesson that I've learned in my 10 year investing career.
MSFTs Open Ai will raise funds with valuation of $100B
Mentions
I actually switched to calls last week, re-entered my old position. I'm looking at the tariff supreme court comments this Fri for a potential catalyst to bump MSFT back to 440
Wasn't azures growth limited by supply, not demand? It grew 39% last quarter - and was constrained by physical supply (not enough gpu's, datacenters, etc), not demand. Demand is greater than what they can deliver at the moment. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/below-expected-azure-growth-hurt-143951340.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/below-expected-azure-growth-hurt-143951340.html) Declining legacy sales doesn't matter a ton if everywhere else is booming. Their revenues are hitting ATH's across the board: [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/revenue](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/revenue) I don't know if I see the same thing you do.
MSFT has only been this cheap 4 times in the last decade tho. It's trading at a cheaper multiple than before they even started their massive AI capex. [https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi](https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi)
PE ratios of these companies (ie: MSFT) suggest they are cheap. They're cheaper than before they even started their AI spending spree [https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi](https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi)
Personally I want to see MSFT hold 392+ for the next 2-3 weeks before I commit big money. I need multiple daily candles staying above the support zone of 396 or a retouch of 392 with a quick bounce off. AMZN, not touching that until it can have back to back green days, weekly EMA for 150 is 191.74 and weekly EMA for 100 is 204.72… so we in no mans land for a bit
\> Buy puts on the way down and profit. But sir, you buy puts before it goes down, not as it's happening. People that start buying puts as things go down often hold them thru the bottom / continue shorting the bottom and lose massively. It's a sure way to burn your money. You need to buy puts \*before\* things crash, not after they've already crashed 20-40%... The original commentor has the correct approach - buy the dip is generally a winning strategy. You don't have to buy the bottom - you just have to buy them before it bounces back. MSFT, GOOG, etc -- they'll continue their trend up, eventually. And you'll likely do better buying now than waiting for 6 months.
No bs… what’s your target entry on MSFT/AMZN. Mouth is watering at these levels…
The only thing I could think of is that SK, Samsung, and MU all underestimated demand. I think they thought demand was going to be gradual over a 5 year span. We are looking at demand being crunched into 2 years. From now until the end of FY2027, these three along with the smaller memory chips like SNDK, WDC, and STX are going to reap in huge amount of cash as AI data centers need to be online asap. META, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG are not paying $600B to be the last one to have their AI system operable. That means they will likely pay 2-3x above fair value on these memory chips to be first.
MSFT to the moon I guess.
It funny picturing some loser in their dorm or parents’ house making all the comments you are. Cool. A 4 month old blog post from some obscure part of MSFT that says a Chinese model has improved upon itself. Only mentioned at all because of Azure benefitting from it. You got me! The hyperscalers quaking in their boots! The US models top the benchmarks but that doesn’t even matter. US economic productivity is showing early signs of acceleration, and the military has already effectively utilized it. The real world implications are all that matters. For now the US is ahead (China’s economy being awful helps) but we’ll see what future years look like. It’s unlikely either gets so far ahead that there’s a single global AI power.
If you want proof of the sheep mentality look at previous situations: 1. Retail investors during Covid: “Oil and gas is dead” “demand is done” “we are going to switch to green energy” nvm that oil companies were still printing money and even after lockdowns had ended Suncor as an example had net income in the billions per quarter but was still trading for ~$20 (CAD) 1.1 Anyone who had the sense to buy oil then and ignore the sheep made a killing 2024 - Retail on TD bank: “the fraud is going to kill them” “their reputation will never recover” “the fees will be crippling” nvm that they were the second biggest bank in Canada and were again still printing billions in net income, they got sold off to around ~$70 (CAD) Anyone that had the sense to ignore the sheep and bought in December 2024 would be looking at gains around 75-100%. Retail on Senior housing in Canada REITs during covid and until about 2023: “families aren’t going to keep their parents there anymore” “senior housing is done” nvm that demographics, growing net incomes or any fundamentals were in their favour sentiment led the sheep to sell sienna and chartwell and their prices went to shit / seesawed but were around ~$8-$9 for chartwell and $9-$10 for sienna at their lows in 2020 and then again when interest rates started rising in 2022 and fall of 2023. Since then nearly 100%-200% gains for those that ignored the sheep and bought quality companies. Where is the pattern repeating: Software and AI: Retail: “software is dead” “AI will replace everything” “changes the model, these companies won’t be able to compete” nvm that again they printing billions in net income, nvm switching costs are insane and no company is going to risk replacing their mission critical software with some vibe coded shit, nvm how embedded they are in their customer bases. The sheep have decided it’s the end so off they go. CSU in Canada (in the states it’s CNSWF) - printing billions in net income a year TRI - printing billions in net income a year MSFT - printing 10s of billions in net income and so embedded in every single corporate workplace Amazon - printing 10s of billions in net income and AWS embedded in literally everything. Taylor Scott a famous fund manager in Canada has said something along the lines of “Everyone loves to quote Buffett and his saying “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful” but few actually follow this saying, because in practice it’s way harder to do.” As the above examples show, when you do follow the saying and ignore the sheep the opportunities are there. You just need the patience and ability to stay solvent longer than the markets can stay irrational. Let’s see how well this comment has aged in the next 5 years or so.
MSFT leaps are looking interesting
I buy and invest based on financial results and industry trends - not on media news. The financial markets make money on activity - they don't care which direction it goes - liquidity in some form or another gives them margin to capture. The news is meant to try and move the needles. I recall the MSFT and META earnings were the same day. MSFT tanked, despite beating on all key meaures with media reason being "concerns about incrased AI spending". Yet META went up with media reason being "increased AI spending". Last year the NVDA "news" was concerns that companies would have the money to keep buying their GPU's. And here we are with all mega cap tech increasing capex even more. NVDA is going to blowout on top and bottom lines again this year. So are you following the "financial news" where the reporters are clueless on technology and the wind blows a different direction each time, or are you following the 10Q/10K and the industry which shows no signs of slowdown?
The market is closed and I don’t know who I am No candles No ticks No dopamine drips Just me Refreshing an app That hasn’t moved In hours My GLD spread frozen in time My MSFT theta trapped in cryostasis My XSP trauma with no sequel I love losing money I love the rush I love watching a 0.87 credit turn into regret But today? The casino is dark The slot machines silent The options chain empty like my soul No 0DTE hero plays No gamma squeezes No panic candles at 3:58 PM Just me Staring at flat lines Like a degenerate monk in silent meditation I don’t even want profit I just want movement Up, down, sideways Anything but still Please ring the bell again Let me feel something Let me donate Let me win Let me breathe volatility Because a market that’s closed Is worse than a red account At least when I’m losing I’m alive.
Casually loading up most of my life savings into MSFT here, another pump here.
Buy calls maybe, or you can buy a ton of shares your choice. (Myself I bought a lot lot of shares around 400 mark) Yeah MSFT is a great buy it's literally dipped like over a 100 bucks in a brief period.
I might just buy like 100 MSFT 420 calls for Friday
MSFT Forward P/E **24.27**.
Pretty good idea, honestly. But break it up 50/50 AMZN MSFT.
Im sick and I juat got 4 different shots in my ass. Still feels better than owning MSFT atm
MSFT attempting a repump
It will start with junior lawyers and junior white collar jobs, then it moves up the ranks. Subscribe to Claude Pro and then Max (or GPT) and do something everyday and I am not talking about case searches or writing opinions, dig into the deep stuff that only lawyers understand and can use, future proof your career, somewhat. Now, investment wise, I would avoid any industry that relies on a computer screen to keep moving forward. It's a wide net but that's what Dario Amodei has been saying, the disruptions start there, this is why you see selloff in MSFT and SaaS and it will keep spreading. Any business that requires software licensing or per-user subscription is going to struggle. Buy an AI hardware ETF or just the single names. Buy power and utilities companies. You can't go wrong buying or averaging into NVDA, INTC, and MU as single names. Space will be big but wait until after SpaceX IPO to settle down 50% or more. Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology are a good bet as new drug discoveries take place in the next several years, and if you want to take a risk, robotics will be the next growth industry but wouldn't touch the smaller unproven names.
I keep putting sell orders in for MSFT today and noone is buying this POS.
Anything but Adobe. Micron is the better pick right now, but longer term I'd say MSFT.
AI hype makes it tricky to choose between MSFT, ADBE, or Micron. Software feels expensive, chips are cyclical, and it's hard to tell if this is just another bubble or the start of something bigger. I'm curious, do you think Micron is a safer bet than the software names, or is it still worth diving during the big tech wave?
The cycle always repeats - there are always a set of speculative stocks that come along with potential and get bid up to heights that don't make sense when compared to other valuations. At their peaks, both ASTS and RKLB were worth more than over half of the companies in the SP500 by market cap. Yep that's right, the bedrock of the US stock market, the SP500, 500 of the strongest financial companies in the US, and somehow ASTS and RKLB was worth more than 250 of them. Problem is the large majority of people buying ASTS and RKLB have no clue about that or about gaps in revenue and profit - they just see it as a "hot" stock and chase it, and the bubble is the result. IMO - If you saw ASTS and RKLB as potentially disruptive companies when their valuations were not so inflated, there's nothing wrong with taking a nibble and seeing how things pan out. But once the valuation got stretched - beyond existing companies who have already pumped out billions in profits and dividend distriubtions over time - well your risk/reward proposition is not as strong. My approach has been there is no such thing a "too late". AMZN started out as a limited online retailer and then expanded to more diverse options in the late 90's and early 2000's. Yet it wasn't until 2008 when they launched the foundation of what would become AWS - their actual bread winner (much more profitable than retail). Then over the course of the next 15+ years they'd grow both retail and AWS, and it's still growing. You'd have made the most money jumping in early - when it's not clear they would succeed. But you still could have made money many years down the line when it was more clear they were gaining traction on all fronts. AAPL was a failure in PC world and Jobs was kicked from the company, with MSFT dominating. It wasn't until the iPod that AAPL started showing some life, and then iPhone propelled them to one of the most valuable companies in the world. Again you have so many entry points over the years to make a positive return - but trading larger return for more certainty. ASTS and RKLB have reached the point where I'd rather wait and see how they pan out - I have no positions. Something to keep in mind also is just because a technology "succeeds" in the sense there are use cases for them and it generates profits, does not mean the company will explode in value - a couple of reasons could be the profit margin is not high (due to costs or competition) or anticipated demand was never met. I've been in the stock market for over 25 years - I've seen a lot come and go - history says the odds are against you on these speculative plays.
Sir, this is ca5ino. I personally bought some MSFT shares, if they will tank more I will add more. Anyway it’s better to buy the company (solid one) at discount, even it’s not at the bottom yet rather than hitting fomo at the top.
A LONG time ago I bought 10,000 shares of NUGT at $1.89, held it for years, and sold it at a loss. Today, it's selling for $253. Also years ago, I bought 300 AMD at $12.10. Today it's at $207 and I'm still holding it. (I think long-run upside is $500!) In 1990's I bought 100 shares of MSFT at $94 and, through splits, I sold 1600 shares at $119. FWIW, I bought HOOD at $54 and I am still holding it. My point: study what you buy and, if you believe your research, don't buy into "panic/trend" information. The AI panic will pass, meaning: do some research and buy what's solid but depressed by emotional selling.
If MSFT reaches $420 within the week, I will become Satya Nadella's personal barber.
Not sure but I do like GOOG and MSFT.
Both of my brain cells are telling me to full port MSFT and come back in 6 months
Has similar problems as fusion. We've theory for 40+ years now and no commercially viable product. Might be a long wait. Also, imho, if you want a bet it's safer to play on GOOG or MSFT than idk, QBTS lol - one of them if they don't get it themselves will just acquire "competition" like they did w example DeepMind
Some stock can be trade on EU market like for example, search for MSFT + German stock and use € to $ then you can see the price in dollars.
What’s the difference between a redditor’s cow and MSFT? … Nothing
Would only trade into strength and ticket the cost as education if you truly cant lose that portion. Feeling your situation but have slightly more theta on my end. Currently holding a MSFT $430c exp Aug of this year. Down ~$1.2k (~30%) so far. Doesn't feel great to watch, but with August expiry I'm giving it time and waiting for a better exit window rather than forcing a decision early.
Yep. There are things about Microsoft I don’t love, sure. But they just had the biggest earnings in the history of Mag7 (soon beaten by Tim Apple) and their PE is/was 24.5 or so. Even with NFLX fall they are still like 31ish and Amazon at $200 is about 28. Which I also bought some of. My trading strategy past my bulk index funds with just my “fun” money is to pick a few mega caps I love and believe in long term. When the narrative sours and the stock tanks, load up. IMO-GOOG, TIMAPPL, MSFT, AMZN are always going to go back up and be great long term holds. Maybe they don’t beat the market for a bit as long as the narrative lasts. Look at Google. Great earnings, stock would tank. Every time. MSFT similar lately. MGK is also my favorite very tech/mega cap heavy etf from Vanguard if you don’t want to guess and time or worry about when to sell.
Same. The money hasn't left the market, SPY is still sky high. It's just temporarily rotated into more defensive plays. I'd expect it to hold fairly steady this week at worst. AMZN, GOOG and MSFT look like bargains right now. WMT earnings could be a "sell the news" event that sparks the re-rotation. Throw in NVIDIA earnings as another potential catalyst. And then (for Amazon in particular) a positive supreme court decision on Friday would really light the touch paper. Could be a gradual climb or it could be hard and fast depending on these potential catalysts. Regardless, it's going up and I'm loading up on Wednesday.
MSFT because I use every day, it has a huge suite of integrated products and services, and it’s ingrained in many, if not most, businesses, government, and institutions in America, and internationally.
MSFT is gonna fucking moon this week LOL
MSFT you pos go up 🤬
I work for Microsoft so I get to see everything that is in beta testing and it is getting much much better, to be honest the copilot integration to m365 helps MSFT tremendously, once companies want to start integrating their workflows and creating agents it is a no brainer to go with the MSFT stack.
I am telling you now, MSFT/GOOG/AMZN to the moon this week. We've just erased 2.5m workers, yet GDP grew by 2.6%? And how have we done that? AI. Much weaker job numbers than expected? JPOW's rate cut money printer is coming out to secure the soft landing legacy. A measurable productivity spike enabled by AI makes a clearer path to monetization for MAG 7, and starts to justify the AI capex for the build out. Meanwhile MAG 7 are slashing headcount while still rocketing growth in areas like Amazon's AWS. Tech has bled but SPY is 2% below ATH. We've not lost the money, it's rotated into defensive stocks including Costco, Walmart, etc. Lower jobs numbers will likely open some sort of income gap, hurting consumer staples, sparking a sector re-rotation. WMT earnings (and NVIDIA), and possibility of supreme court tarrifs decision on Friday, we are going to the fucking moon.
I am fucking bullish on MSFT/GOOG/AMZN etc. Much weaker job numbers than expected? Fed have kept it too tight too long. Couple it with the cooler than expected CPI? Time to cut those god damn rates JPOW. GDP growth is steady despite fewer workers than expected? Productivity per worker is higher. SPY earnings power is higher than we realized. What's helping enable these productivity gains? AI. A measurable productivity spike enabled by AI makes a clearer path to monetization for MAG 7, and starts to justify the AI capex for the build out. Meanwhile MAG 7 are slashing headcount while still rocketing growth in areas like Amazon's AWS. Now, tech has bled heavily but SPY is only 2% below ATH. We've had a huge rotation out of tech into "defensive" stocks, heavily centred on consumer staples (Costco, Walmart, etc). Significantly lower jobs numbers opens up a bit of an income gap, which should hurt retail. This should in turn spark a sector re-rotation back to tech (or oblivion). June/July rate cuts by 50bps. Calls to the wall, regards.
The current chart for MSFT shows a significant downtrend over the past six months, losing over 22% of its value. The price has recently approached the lower end of its 52-week range, indicating a potential area of support. While not a classic reversal pattern, the flattening out of the decline around the 400-405 price level, after a sharp drop, suggests a period of consolidation that could precede a rebound. Minervini's 'base formation' principles suggest that after a significant decline, a period of stabilization and accumulation can occur before a new uptrend. The 400-405 level appears to be acting as a short-term support, as per ChartScanner.AI analysis, where buying interest might be emerging. A confirmed breakout above immediate resistance would signal a stronger bullish conviction.
I feel like the AI euphoria is simmering? Isn’t that why GOOG and MSFT dumped so hard for overspending?
GOOG & MSFT leaps are clearly the play. Am I missing something other than Gates liking kids?
Thank you for your service, I'll pay you a 0,0000000001% dividend of my MSFT shares
Another week of MSFT being flaccid af
BRICS nations based entities are actively looking for Linux based alternatives to MSFT products, that is true.
6 am in Tokyo, can’t sleep listening to lil durk and building Powerpoint slides 💪💪I got you MSFT shareholders, producing value as we speak
Good to know. Overall the end result is always the same tho -- fear passes and market resolves itself. Take MSFT - their growth on azure was supply limited - not demand limited.
I agree. IMO it's an overreaction to the tech sector. If you remove AI from MSFT - it's still in value territory imo. There's been a massive rotation from tech -> value in fears of a crash happening. What occured is that actually caused big tech to crash and value to get pumped. SPY went sideways, QQQ went down slighlty, but some legit / large / valuable companies got rekt. I'm seeing 20-40% down on some solid companies -- MSFT being one.
Happy about selling crwv for net, MSFT, CRWD and now.
I'm running it on MSFT. Look at the PE here: [https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi](https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi) It's literally only been this low 3 other times in the last DECADE, during which it stayed depressed for a grand total of \~2-4 months. Other times seen: Interest rate fears (2022), Covid lows (2020) & the 2018 dip (whatever caused that). Ain't no way it stays depressed for a long long time.
Cause people are sheep buy MSFT in 10 years or less you’ll be laughing at the gains
Close expiration, goodluck! I hope we see $440 by then, we'd both be printing hard! The CC's are netting me \~1% / day at the moment for a \~0.5-1% OTM. IE: I sold 402.5 CC's for $4 each, that expire EOD weds. As long as it's below 406.5 by EOD weds I'm better off with the CC's. BUT - I'm closing them at market open irregardless of outcome. Will reset then as well (either buy or sell shares to bring margin back to \~300%). I'm only using the CC's due to high leverage. I don't really like running them on things I'm bullish on when they're in dips. Look at the PE of MSFT here, it's fucked. [https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi](https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi) We've only been this low 3 times in the last DECADE, and during which we stayed at the depressed PE for a total of... 2-4 months. Hence why I think 1 month may be risky, personally if buying calls I'd target 4-6 months.
Oh no, I might be cooked. I'm also in MSFT. What strikes and expirations? My current strategy is: triple leveraged MSFT w/ daily reset. It's kinda like calls (exponential up AND down movements) -- but no expiration & no liquidation point. I am also selling OTM CC's everyday EOD on it (that expire in like 1-2 days) for a nice premium. Close them at open & rebalance, open them at EOD again. Basically it gives me CC's for the overnight movements. The idea is simply I think MSFT has been oversold (a lot of tech has). But idk where the bottom is. Buying the dip on oversold solid companies is generally a decent bet. To minimize bloodyness of catching the knife - CC's really help. After we get any sort of reversal confirmed - I'ma quit the CC's and just do triple leveraged w/ daily reset. GL with the calls!
It’s not too late if you really believe it’s a better investment . I don’t want to talk you out of ADBE , but MSFT is still <410. Just saying . I have 100 shares of MSFT and 3 270 leap calls . Cost is about $94k but I have exposure to 400 shares of MSFT Upside for 3 years . Selling otm calls on all to bring cost basis cost basis down closer to $80k
Oh no. I'm in a triple leveraged MSFT with daily reset and selling OTM CC's for income / on the premiums. As soon as it starts reversing I quit the daily OTM CC's and ride it back up! Literally can't go tits up, right?
Tomorrow MSFT go up? When these tech stonks gonna bottom? I started buying last week
Yeah I see the argument to be made that it's risky since the per-seat licensing may take a hit if companies reduce headcount. In all honesty I am wishing I just kept the money on the side to buy more MSFT but we're going to ride it out now. I'm not adding to this position though.
My personal opinion is that regardless of what happens in the short term, we are going to end at ATH by end of year. META to 800+, AAPL to 300+, MSFT to 550+, and NVDA to 200+
i'm bagholding MSFT now
This I agree with. I'm not sure what MSFT can do to stem the cash flow burn (I sincerely wish they fire their "AI CEO" to start with), but if they are able to manage or reverse the spending they are doing the stock should be back to previous levels.
MSFT and ADBE are down for two different reasons, which are ironically somewhat opposite to one another. ADBE is down due to the, in my judgment, totally overblown AI-driven obsolescence narrative. MSFT is down because they’re throwing piles of money into things like OpenAI which are not profitable (yet at least). The broad market rotation right now is to higher cash flow companies. ADBE has TTM price/FCF of 12, while MSFT is at 39. This is becoming a show-me-the-money / cash-is-king market (note how high flowing dividend stocks have become as of late).
Sounds good! I don't have a magic ball :-) it can go to zero and it can go $600. All I'm saying is that MSFT is not going anywhere. FWIW, I'm predicting that this year will be a flat year (for the overall market).
I bought both on the pullback as well, buy MSFT is a much heavier allocation. Good luck to both of us.
Let’s see, I’m middle aged. In my investment career I’ve seen a few huge trends. -Internet stocks- the best in breed absolutely mooned. 2001 was a pullback but unless you thought Pets.com was the next MSFT you probably did OK. Then came: -Social media and video- This is the 2007-2012 era of Google, NFLX and Meta. They were leaders in the industry. Then and now. Unless you full ported on Snapchat then you’ve done great. -A more boring trend, the move away from cash to electronic payments. This is visa, Mastercard, etc. -Renewable energy- turns out this was a mega trend with varying returns. Have to be fair. Not all trends make you rich. But many of the leaders have done great. -Electric vehicles. Yeah, long term TSLA shareholders are pretty happy. Myself included. -And now- AI and space. Look above and tell me you actually believe the leaders in this mega trend will not produce great returns.
MSFT a "better" business? With the Windows 11 debacle (and even people "upgrading from Windows 11 or 10 BACK to Windows 7") I hardly think it's "better" or safer. If Linux improves further in seamlessly running Windows apps (and at the same time, programs like Adobe Photoshop are given Linux compatibility which is exactly what they're doing), they're will be a lot of people saying sayonara to Microsoft. It isn't the monopoly it once was (but I guess for some peoples' backwards logic, NOT being a monopoly is a "good" thing).
I just spread my tech holdings over the strongest companies and hold. AVGO, MSFT, AMD, NVDA, MRVL, CRTO, TSM, META, GOOGL. I watch the action, but I'm in for at least the next ten years.
I would argue that MSFT, GOOG, AMZN are better positioned to make large comebacks in the next year. This kind of reset is standard for tech stocks moving through a shifting era. Look at the history of any of them and there are times they drop like this during uncertainty, but these three big tech companies IN PARTICULAR are poised to capitalize on AI in very specific markets (office/cloud/enterprise productivity, life productivity, logistics/cloud productivity), and they all are positioning to be core AI players without being irrevocably attached to just a single model. SNAP can't succeed without Android and cloud infra, both of which support these underlying providers as well. 🤷♂️
Bad valentines date huh? Kidding but to counter your points: at a basic level, markets are about money - who has it, how are they making it, how are they using it. GOOGL ,AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, META (and governments…) have it and they’ve said where it’s going. GOOGL isn’t issuing century bonds for weed stocks or crypto.
NBIS has 5 year contracts locked in with both META and MSFT iirc. They just have collect payment.
As if MSFT can't automate its own suite of software via AI prompts.
probs, I'm not playing it. Swapped to MSFT
Agreed. It's a combination of MSFT's massive enshittification of their flagship product, and the US administration's hostility to their allies making people go "wait how would our economy actually function if we had to stop using US products?"
It's about valuation.The intrinsic value of MSFT is arnd $390. On the other hand you have WallStreet Price Target of $595. Is it not a Buying Opportunity ?
MSFT, AMZN dropped hard af, 20-30% yet the s&p500 is only 3-5% from ath. Maybe be less lazy and karma farming man
My view and why I'm bearish on MSFT is: - theyre heavily invested in OpenAI. OpenAI has never made a dollar and has a huge amount of debt and their models are under performing competitors. Not a good outlook there. - Apple already partnered with Google. So Gemini will be on every mobile device, Chrome OS, and Mac. - Anthropic is winning the corporate space. In having used most major AI platforms, what Claude can do producing code or synthesizing/summarizing data is vastly better than competitors. It is also far better for personal uses compared to copilot in my experience too - Linux has gotten really good for both server and personal use. I expect to see more business move to Linux given costs of everything Yes, MSFT has Azure. But given these factors, I just don't see a bull case for significant growth.
Selling MSFT and QCOM was a good call but holding ZS at -36% is risky – cybersecurity is getting commoditized and the valuation never made sense. CRM at -32% is more interesting, their FCF is massive and Agentforce could be a real catalst. Netflix at -29% feels temporary. The BABA/BIDU recovery is a good reminder that sometimes you just need to survive the drawdown.
MSFT is solid, but I can’t put them in the same tier as Google. Say what you will about Gemini, but Google is fully vertically integrated for their AI platform (Google-designed TPUs), while OpenAI and the rest are still fighting over Nvidia GPUs in their data centers. Google also created the foundational concepts all LLMs have been built on, and still have an enormous collection of training data and products — they’re well positioned to stay competitive in the AI race. Meanwhile, MSFT is betting hard that OpenAI continues to be the market leader, and now that their first mover advantage has disappeared, it’s significantly tougher to compete. Anthropic and Grok are making this a crowded sector more than ever, and all are competing for the same hardware resources. I don’t think MSFT is a bad buy. It’s part of my portfolio and continues to grow in enterprise, like you pointed out. However… my time horizons are all screwed up, due to AI progression and geopolitics being completely screwed up past few months. I’m starting to be more bullish on Google and Apple just because they aren’t fully reliant on Nvidia to compete in AI.
Thats worse than I performed. But it wouldnt matter to me if MSFT did all of a sudden rocket, unless it was built on systemic changes to their models that made their products better.
MSFT leaps, I picked up 330 jun 27 last week.
would like to get a reminder to see whats happened a year from now with MSFT !remindme 1 year
Microsoft sales has been stepping its game up I work for FTSE 100 and they are pushing hard (and winning) somehow to have us use all MSFT products. We are switching to teams from zoom, I have to trade diarrhea for vomit 😭
MSFT with a PE(nis) ratio of 25... is it a good time to buy?
$MSFT $450+ rebound incoming
Why are people so bullish on MSFT lol? It has a 3T valuation right now--the 4th largest market cap in the world and people are acting like buying it today at 3T is like buying NVDA in 2017 sub 100B. Disclaimer: MSFT is my 5th largest holding and I did add to my position at $400/share. I'm just tired of people acting like this is like getting in on sunlight before there was fucking sunlight
to be fair, xbox is less than 10% of MSFT revenue I'm not sure gaming really has anything to do with their share price at all, not when things like oracle, azure and being an openAI proxy stock are the big winds
Worked at MSFT for a VERY long time before and having been through everything that happens in Redmond esp in relation to how the company leadership approaches solving issues and what’s real vs vaporware, I’ll say the following - The probability of me getting fkd sideways is in the high 90 percentile range than the probability it msft leveraging AI to make any measurable impact on most white-collar jobs (which will be in the single digit percentile)
Am I stupid for having 100% of my networth in MSFT?
PLTR and MSFT will both be up over 8% on Tues. Smart money will pour into software.
Let the numbers speak https://www.metricsi.de/stock/MSFT