MSFT

cbusoh66

NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, SPCX/TSLA, ANT, AVGO, and soon OpenAI will make 80% of the S&P500 SPY will never lose more than 1%....Ever

Sad_Reply9012

Can some explain why MSFT is in the shitter today...

benkyo_benkyo

My understanding of the whole situation: 1. Big Tech (GOOG, AWS, MSFT) offloads Anthropic's investments at this IPO and make profits. This is the maxima, Big Cash Balance, Promotional compute costs before actual rates kick in. Revenue seems like its growing like no end. Cannot be a better moment. 2. Big Tech (GOOG, AWS, MSFT) gets guaranteed revenue commitments 80B/yr for next 10 years till Anthropic is Bankrupt. Right now their margins are on compute lease. Anthropic 131B sitting cash is going to flow directly back to Big Tech accounts. 3. Big Tech (GOOG, AWS, MSFT) replaces Anthropic's top customers when they deem fit. All major revenue for Anthropic is enterprise, which the Big Tech very well knows how to service. Customers want Intelligence not Claude. Big Tech will make a lot more margin by removing the middleman (Anthropic) as the intelligence provider. In next 2-3 years they will make both compute lease and intelligence margins. Anthropic cant do shit and have to pay regardless of compute use. So in the end Big Tech is going to make a shit ton of money. The events are sequenced in a way to maximize profits from the 3 channels without much risk. Anthropic is a dog of a company and a facade. There is no MOAT. You heard it here first.

Moepenmoes

If MSFT somehow isn't mooning this week, I'll never trust this sub's stock advice again

Moepenmoes

Someone lend me some money so I can dump even more cash into MSFT

FinePerformance1046

Did you really just enter MSFT now or are these old positions? Not saying it’s bad but it’s already had its big run.

Western_Coffee_5445

$MSFT another round of layoffs

Panthera__Tigris

GOOGL makes sense. DRAM, I would rather buy Sk Hynix and MU separately. DRAM ETF has few shares and a lot of synthetic Total Return Swaps with Nomura and Goldman which will eat into your profits. I would also buy more SK Hynix than MU because Sk Hynix has half the P/E of MU so it has more upside. MSFT I actually sold already. It went up more than 50% in the last couple of months so i think the upside is limited for now.

pain474

Wow you're so brave investing in MSFT and GOOGL

Street-Corporation

Think this is going to go exactly like SPCX, rip up drop violently settle and then start to slowly trend upward. Will buy a put as soon as options trading is available and try to trade volatility short term. Ultimately I think for the labs they spent too much to get it up and going. Google and Microsoft are coming to collect in the form of the frontier models. If you can do print(“hello world”) you understand how powerful these tools are and continue to become. Bullish on AI, not bullish on Anthropic existing forever especially in this loss generating state. I also think older models are staying relevant longer, codex 5.6 sol medium and high are insanely capable especially if you know a little bit of software. Also this shit can teach you how to write basic software and then you can layer it with increasing degrees of complexity. MSFT de facto laying off 27% of its workforce is an extremely bullish sign for what these tools are doing internally at one of the most important companies in the world. Also Apollo and my former boy Torsten lying about AI productivity and then his firm buying $40b of AI components is another bull flag. Semiconductors let that shit go to 0. The big 4 are in a race to the bottom to build the God AI. Negative FCF at Meta now, bullish on AI but the market is extremely volatile and I think trying to trade the up and down moves is the move right now.

zxc123zxc123

I remember all those folks who said GOOG was Yahoo or OpenAi roadkill last year. Same 🌈🐻 types were saying MSFT was earlier this year with SaaSpocolypse. OP themselves said they uninstalled windows but never noted WTF they use now. Just like how folks were saying AI will disrupt MSFT, AI/LLMs will make Linux easier, how folks will reverse engineer windows before improving it with AI, and the business model is dead while typing from their windows OS. If you go to r/PCmasterrace and r/piracy then you'll see they don't LOVE windows, but everyone there is out to get SONY. I own both btw. Pretty happy with both.

Renfield_U_asshole

Ah yes I completely missed how the entire revenue of MSFT comes from u/street_nintendo and how revenue is now going to collapse due to the breakdown of long dated contracts, vertical integration, and stewardship of MSFT.

Western_Coffee_5445

$MSFT doing another round of layoffs

Orthoebolavirus

TLDR I can see either AMZN or AAPL buying RDDT to become a tech/social media conglomerate like META, MSFT. and GOOG are.

MountainTimeInvestor

It’s something that’s always been a black cloud for ZM, yet they’ve grown to $5B ARR. I think it remains a challenge, but I’m encouraged by MSFT integrations which shows at least some enterprise customers want to use ZM and MSFT suite. What’s been more surprising to me is seeing RNG and FIVN YTD performance, which could be a signal that AI use cases increase UCaaS TAM’s.

DancingCow

MSFT Earnings :shrek: AMZN Earnings :shrek:

Panthera__Tigris

GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, SK Hynix, SNDK earnings in the next two days and everyone knows they will blow it out of the park. The drop in the previous weeks was fake FUD.

vijay_the_messanger

not good that MSFT is giving a 1/4 of it's workforce the *option* to take a voluntary severance instead of forcing a layoff? Can you explain how that's "not good"?

VeridionMarkets

Here's what options are pricing for each report, as of Monday: \- MSFT ±5.2% (10-yr avg move ±5.3%) \- GOOGL ±6.0% (avg ±6.6%) \- AMZN ±7.8% (avg ±7.7%) \- INTC ±9.7% (avg ±9.8%) \- SNDK ±10.3% (avg ±13.3%) Four of the five are priced almost exactly at their historical average move. The market isn't expecting anything unusual from the biggest week of the quarter. SNDK is the outlier: it's priced about 3 points below its own history. On Intel Thursday: Pelosi's husband holds 50 Jun 2027 $50 calls ($250K-$500K) plus 10,000 shares ($500K-$1M), both bought Jul 24. Filed in August, so it's public. He's positioned long-dated, not for this print. Observation, not a recommendation. Size every position so that a move twice the implied one doesn't take you out. [https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public\_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035143.pdf](https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035143.pdf)

Samjabr

Buying EOW QQQ Calls - GOOG & MSFT are going to pump this market Source: Trust me, Bro.

LIGHTNINGBOLT23

As someone who just invests in LETFs, only go in when an upswing is practically guaranteed in the short to mid term after a hard drawback. Seems you bet the farm on NBIS just after the peak. MSFT and GOOG on the other hand were free money a while back.

met_art

MSFT guidance and earnings report must not be looking good if they are trying to let go of 60k staff members

AlmostAsianJim

Remember earlier this year when $MSFT went down everyday and that's what everyone would complain about? That's where $GOOGL is currently.

appearstobeidiot

All those mouse-jigglers would have plenty of MSFT vested stock with them. They're not joining "the trades". They're going to join "the retards".

Shooomus

Ive got 30% of my portfolio in MSFT up 53% should I sell before earnings?

HairlessChest

market brushing off MSFT news lmao

Bilo-Akai-

sell my MSFT stocks (32% up) and buy ASTS (64% down), noted, thanks mate

Super-Activity-4675

Considering a 0 DTE straddle on the SPY for 1:45 Wed. Waiting till after earnings to sell covered calls on my MSFT shares. I suspect they pop given MSFT's financial engineering results last earnings.

zion-messenger

I have one... I come here every morning the get an insight from the very first post I read. Today I'll sell some MSFT and rotate to whatever is down on my portfolio.

WellThatsPrompting

Calls for the melt up tomorrow and spike Wednesday morning after infrastructure earnings, flip to puts during FOMC and ride those to close as people unnecessarily freak out, then back to calls for MSFT and GOOGL as people realize there can be profit from AI and ride that gap up all day Thursday, through AMZN earnings, into Friday morning. Then end on puts as it all settles in, we remember we're fucked, and may as well take the profit. Just before close, atm calls for Monday morning

davidbigham

This week is stacked as fk. FOMC and MSFT GOOGLE AMAZON earning. I may need some protective puts .

Beerplz94

tbh what you are describing is basically the same as MSFT earlier this year where everyone made fun of it , until it decided to say fuck you and ran from \~380 to 490

Used_Pay_428

Mixed signals this AM. KOSPI gapped up but faded to close. Oil up. VIX down. Futures red. Looking like a sideways day for Tuesday heading into FOMC and GOOG/MSFT earnings Wednesday.

Ill_Mastodon8324

Be interesting to hear the spin on the 60k voluntary exit move from MSFT...

bartturner

Yes. Why MSFT was way up yesterday.

GrandmaBaker1929

MSFT is laying off 25% of their people. Yes theta. But I would certainly not be a long-term investor here. I rebalanced to 100% short term US treasuries (since they won’t default on those) and will just let them roll off my balance sheet until the market’s down 80%…could be 6 years, but you and I both know ain’t know way they’re gonna let the hardworking investor win in this country

met_art

Any MSFT employees here? It don’t look good dogs.

RogueProtocol37

Bloomberg quoted MSFT CPO said they expected less than 30% (of those 60k) will take the offer.

Ozqi

MSFT and GOOG just announced they’re going to have sex with each other. Both stocks up 94% after hours.

whk1992

I’m confused. Trades as in taking MSFT off my hands?

Exists_out_of_spite

It's actually spooky. We could kick off another 3-4 month bull run if MSFT and GOOG print insanely positive numbers and the market fixates on that. And it's funny that its even a possibility given how IranWar/Inflation/Pedophile/Oil+$100/warTariffwar everything else is. That or else the market is like "Capex, Yikes" and everything that isn't Costco/WMT/AAPL has a -30% week and we immediately go into recession. It gives me the jitters how hard things could swing off of one week with some quarterly earnings and a fed meeting.

Useful-Resist-5964

The other thing is that there's legitimate spending going on by basically every government regarding AI. A lot of people think this is a bubble that will burst because normal people will stop using it. But the use case isn't ever about selling to normies like McDonalds--it's about selling to governments and businesses. EU and Asia are anti-American AI tech companies right now, but that doesn't mean that they aren't trying to establish and contract with their own national tech companies. I think people betting against PROFITABLE AI companies are doomed. So PLTR, NVDA, MSFT, all those guys--they're likely just going to keep going up.

PercentageSouth4173

Headcount still hasn’t budged lol https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/number-of-employees

aemus001

... MSFT to buy out 60000 workers, VP and below elihible to balance workload with AI

Ordinary_Material175

MSFT announced 60,000 layoffs today. That’s 25% of workers. WTF?

Laureles2

I am frustrated like you, but I have been fortunate to time my GOOG purchases (and MSFT) pretty well and plan to hold long term. I personally think the top HyperScalers (GOOG, MSFT, AMZN) will be the biggest / safest play winners here. Once they've built out capacity it will be a very large moat for them in 28 / 29 / 30 (just like Cloud) and they'll have a large part of a fast growing, capacity constrained, market. I also agree with you that the cash flows of the Big Tech firms will see them through. The Hyperscalers can also throttle back CapEX if they need to, or when prudent. The NeoClouds can be screwed if they don't grow fast enough... they can't lay off of spend and need someone to keep loaning them $$$. As an aside, I usually invest for a minimum timeframe of 12 months unless my thesis on the purchase changes. I also don't do short selling or options as trading isn't my primary occupation and I don't feel comfortable doing it. I generally try to keep 5-10% of dry powder and use an opportunity where a big name goes down 20-30% to investigate and buy. If I have a smaller name and it goes up 5-8x I usually sell a bit off the top and put into an index.

KaleidoscopeAshamed1

How much are MSFT paying to workers to leave? Anyone have the severance terms? 2-3 salaries per year?

cbusoh66

META, SPCX, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT are all renting out compute now. How do Neoclouds really compete, especially with someone like SPCX who solved a big chunk of the power problem and are so much faster standing out their data centers?

sinag19

Guys I need a quick 10 bagger. Today was MSFT do you guy know which stock will that be tomorrow

jadepig

Adding to your point, their marginal cost depends on their revenue and usage. They have take-or-pay compute contracts with at least AMZN, MSFT, and GOOG. They're paying for that compute whether it's used or not, and this is locked in for 5-10 years.

KMI_Dragon_Knight

Bullish as fuck. I never considered getting MSFT until now, thanks anon

Ok_Cry7572

“No ROI on AI” My guy, $MSFT is cutting 27% of its employees and growing 18% YoY… they expect to continue that rate of growth with 27% fewer employees…..

Ok_Cry7572

60k MSFT workers taking the voluntary exit at $400k fully loaded is $24B a year (~13% of EBIT), levered 2-1 debt-to-equity, would fund about $70B of capex, almost exactly equal to MSFT consensus y/y capex increase.

spilledonwhite

I'm getting MSFT vibes with the amount of people bitching about google on reddit... but MSFT had a bigger drawdown than google currently has. Make of that what you will.

jmc774

I'll take a buyout. I dont work at MSFT though

D1finalboss

MSFT offering employees $ to beat it but plot twist they’ll get rehired in a year when the programs meant to do their work turn out to be ass and need that personal touch

tortoisepump

MSFT want to buy out employees like you

bartturner

MSFT way up today. Sad how things work but I get it.

Beginning-Fig-9089

so was that MSFT buyout extended to replace AI (all indians) with AI. due to the whole H1B thing

Street-Corporation

Might be time to just put it all on black. Can’t believe the MSFT buyouts, I mean I can believe it but damn feeling pretty fucked.

JohanLiebert92

seems to be going through the same phase MSFT was before it shrek'd

InjuryEmbarrassed532

A boon for MSFT employees who are on the verge of FIRE.

Kentaiga

Take the buyout and put it all in MSFT to maximize the bull run

BigMisterLawyerDude

MSFT just found a way to get rid of 60,000 employees because of AI...where there's a will, there's a way.

usobeta1000

INTC might be the sneaky swing vote this week. If they talk up foundry traction and PC demand while MSFT/GOOGL guide AI spend higher, the market might finally stop treating AI like one ticker.

redx47

I worked at MSFT, this is not correct, at least not now. Entry level software is 59/60, 63/64 is senior, 65 principal, etc. You can be an individual contributor at any level, even high levels. Level 70 (which there are very few of) can be an IC distinguished engineer, they might not manage anyone

Locus_In_Quo

> Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is moving higher today, trading up +$6.79 (+1.30%) at $531.31 from its previous close of $524.51. Microsoft has 223,000 full-time employees globally as of June 30, 2026. So if microshaft 💩got rid of all workers except Nugella, Gates, Bulmmer than it would move up by about + - $35 lulz.

creemeeseason

MSFT offering buyouts to 60,000 employees, slightly over 1/4 of its workforce. My condolences to all of them. Hope everyone lands on their feet.

moorhound

>tech headlines: SPCX takes on $40bn more debt, Meta looking for $95bn in equity to fuel more AI burn, MSFT looking to lay off 60k workers why up again

VeridionMarkets

Quick cross-check on how Congress has been positioned in this trade, from House and Senate transaction filings since Aug 1 (ranges as printed): * **NVDA:** 5 sale lines from 4 members (Booker, Whitehouse, Meuser, Cisneros) vs 1 purchase (McGuire) * **MSFT:** 8 sale lines from 6 members vs 4 purchase lines from 3 * **TSM:** 3 purchases (Fields, Cisneros, Allen), 0 sales * The President’s latest OGE 278-T also lists an **NVDA sale of $500K–$1M** dated Aug 21. It’s a small sample, and the filings show what and when, not why. Plenty of it is probably rebalancing. Still, if $2.1T of data center capex is real, it’s interesting that the buying is at the fab level, not the GPU or hyperscaler names.

Beautiful_Ad_1719

With MSFT leads the way, other MAG6 have no choice but to follow. 💩 storm is coming.

0o0o0o0o0o0z

I mean, all these companies are gonna need to generate ~1.3 trillion in revenue over ~3 years just to cover their buildout costs. I am not saying the technology isn't amazing; I am saying the scale might not be there for a subscriber or enterprise model yet... if ever. And everyone is racing to be the next Google, AMZ, MSFT, META, etc... + all the bulshit neoclouds... so I think this shakes out pretty badly in maybe 18-26 months, and you see the 3 big dogs, MSFT, AMZ, GOOGL, gobble everything up.

Haagen76

Pretty much, I've seen this done several times in my career at the same company: voluntary separation package (VSP). Each time they never met the goal. The result was RIFs the over the next quarters until they mat the numbers they needed. Working in IT, on topic of MSFT, I don't buy the " AI leads to efficiency". I think they over spent money on AI, need to justify it, and most of all pay for it. The RIFs are how they pay for it.

Cav829

You would be correct. So the best examples I can offer here as to the misunderstanding of many investors are AAPL and WMT. Forward P/E is treated a little too sacred by most amateur investors, and you'll constantly see the gnashing of teeth about these two tickers being eternally "overvalued." The answer is simple: they're both cash fortresses. Another good example is the continued success of KO over PEP: KO contracts out most of its distribution line. PEP owns most of theirs. As a result, PEP has much heavier CapEx to worry about, which is one of the major reasons during a time of higher yields it is trading at a much lower P/E than KO. On the opposite end of the spectrum, you can observe the fall of Meta over the past year. Its forward P/E looks attractive, yet it just went negative free cash flow. Often times, these companies eventually have to dilute shares in order to raise cash as borrowing money becomes too expensive. GOOGL has never recovered from its dilution and AMZN has been trading at a sharp discount against its P/E in large part because they also went negative FCF. MSFT on the other hand has been the stock of choice amongst the hyperscalers for the past few months as they are the singular one still positive FCF. In a lot of ways, a lot of Wall Street investors likely foresaw this as early as a year ago, hence why most of the Mag7 have been stuck in mud while AAPL has feasted.

carsonthecarsinogen

Yea they either solved ASI or some regarded uni student vibe coded a MSFT clone over night

MICT3361

What does MSFT cutting employees due to AI productivity gains have to do with small AI players failing?

Trojann2

Not every Org in MSFT, sales for instance is large but unable to toss their hat into the ring.

jizz_toaster

You’ve got buyout money to create generational wealth with MSFT calls and you don’t have to work anymore, what is the downside?

Total_Reputation_234

MSFT to the moon!

NerdSlamPo

You guys were saying the exact same thing about MSFT before it jumped 150 points. Google is going to crush, say they have reduced capex by like 1% and the market will love it.

HoneyBadger552

Holy hell. MSFT swinging for the fences of depravity. Calls on VPU

Candid_Cat_5921

Imagine if a huge amount took it. MSFT would be absolutely fucked today. That being said, I’ve been told a lot of juniors today at Microsoft and even some seniors are essentially just AI relays that don’t do much development at all themselves anymore. I guess it’s better to be paid to find a different career then to wait until you’re abruptly laid off.

Andrewj31

As a fellow MSFT employee... my org is never eligible for these

zephyrs85

They can fire everyone as long as my MSFT shares go up in value

Tinderfury

That's a whole lot of salary savings in the long-run. There are alot of dinosaurs in MSFT, cutting the fat there is such an MVP move. Bullish

LabyrinthLayers

That MSFT news is genuinely terrifying lmao we are FUKD

LabyrinthLayers

Somewhat concerning for humans, but bigly bullish for MSFT. The K continues widening..

VeridionMarkets

The Fed decision is probably the least of it. Futures have a hold at around 90%, so the statement itself is mostly priced in. If there’s a move, it’ll come from the 2:30 press conference. The real pileup is Wednesday: the Fed at 2pm, then MSFT and GOOGL report after the close the same day. Their capex guidance will do more to the Nasdaq than 25bp either way. Thursday morning brings Q3 GDP and September PCE, then Amazon after the close. The BoJ wraps up the week on Friday with its quarterly outlook, and after the August 2024 carry-trade unwind I wouldn’t ignore a yen surprise. One thing I watch after big tech reports is insider Form 4s. Most companies close the insider trading window before earnings and reopen it a day or two after, so the week after is when the selling shows up. Most of it is pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sales and means very little. An open-market buy after a bad quarter is the one worth noticing.

Jbull136

“Undervalued” needs a huge asterisk there. These companies have very low P/E due to massive **unrealized** investment gains, keyword unrealized. If you look at Price over Free Cash Flow instead of Price over Earnings it paints a much dire valuation picture: MSFT: 235.40x AMZN: 112.43x GOOGL: 101.88x NVDA: 87.46x META: 70.10x AAPL: 64.35x TSLA: 394.17x Not to mention all those unrealized investment gains are mostly them passing around each other’s shares. So yea quite literally a bubble waiting to burst. All it will take is one of these companies to have a bad quarter or 2 and the house of cards is gonna fall

aemus001

$MSFT rallying

aemus001

Breaking: MSFT buying out 60000 workers

Gorgenapper

MSFT and Google I think

Stonk_Trader69420

MSFT earnings in two days... If in profit stock sinks 10% if target not met sinks 20%...

Slow_Replacement2700

Are we all in on MSFT puts today boys?

GloomyMembership4197

Bull case: \- FED unchanges rates \- AMZN, MSFT, GOOGLE beat and raise + increase capex

Orthoebolavirus

GOOG beat them all to it. Sucked the stock dumped, but great business decision to raise the funds before META, MSFT, etc., dilute, and also prior to the big IPOs that'll siphon off liquidity.

SpicyElixer

“Substantial” revenue doesn’t matter when your expenses are in great excess of said “substantial” revenue. SpaceX is not Google or MSFT, Elon. Sorry. You’re the neoncloud.

shrekbehindu

Well I do not have 25 years of cybersecurity experience but I'd like to pick your brain. To me the industry is moving away from FW towards endpoint security platforms. This seems like something that is being adopted by platforms like MSFT defender and Crowdstrike falcon. Even PANW is moving to this (see Koi). So while MSFT may not be focusing on HW FW, there's going to be a ton of competition in endpoint security, and that's where the puck seems to be going anyways.

Crazy-Experience-678

Throw SPCX AMZN MSFT GOOGL ORCL META in there since they all burning trillions building data centers like the neoclouds.

Misaka9615

because AAPL is great, but its overvalued. GOOGL's bear case is being underaddressed by the market, that being search. MSFT is simply an AMZN with more risk in enterprise software and europe exposure. META is great for the future, and I already have a large position. What does that leave? The company who benefits disproportionately from automation, with little in the case of bear cases other than capex, and whose stock has underperformed even spy in recent years - and it's time for it to catch up.