Reddit Posts
All BS aside, how’s calls on MSFT looking this week?
Me going into earnings week with $5000 in SMCI, MSFT, & AMD calls
Need to practice option trading with paper money
Who’s ready to burn their life savings this week
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
This is a small dumb little thing but it's HUGE in its Implications - Google Puts Chrome On Windows ARM - Effectively Seeding Chromebooks
Who’s buying MSFT & AMD calls for earnings?
I took too long to move my MSFT stocks and now I don't know if I should wait after the weekend to buy.
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia's Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses 🚀
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia’s Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses
Wall Street Newsletter S03E06: All-time highs are here. What's next?
Poor Man’s Covered Call What it is, why I’m doing it with $30k worth of MSFT calls , and why you should consider trying it. TLDR at TOP
MSFT has now overtaken AAPL in market cap.
Some predictions for Microsoft, Palantir, AMD, Amazon, Spotify and Tesla.
Is it normal for the index funds to be weighted this heavily by mega caps?
What are your top picks for the top performance stocks for this year?
Epic V Continues to Show How Little Risk Exists
Has anyone seriously looked at Global Foundries [$GFS]
$CBDW News 1606 Corp. CEO Attends Consumer Electronics Show (CES) For Collaboration Meetings
$MSFT has potentially created a "new battery" with AI - Musk / $TSLA Says Interesting
Top 10 S&P 500 companies by market cap weighting since 1980. MSFT is the reining champ for persistence.
The true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
A true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
Lumen $LUMN Insider & Big Boys Buying Spree Post Dividend Halt, Kate Johnson & Co. Personally Buying the Dip
LUMEN $LUMN INSIDER & BIG BOYS BUYING SPREE POST DIVI HALT, KATE JOHNSON & CO. BACK THE DIP HARD!
And the AI Show Goes On - GPT 4.5 Turbo Leaks - $MSFT - Its Real And Available -https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai
Taiwan Semi (TSMC) will be 'back to strong growth in 2024' - JPMorgan (holding small position)
Potential for massive shorts/puts tmrw (Jan 4th) after the release of the Epstein List (likely today after market close, Jan 3rd)?
If Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s list is this a great put buying opportunity for MSFT?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on the Jeffrey Epstein Client List sound like a bad idea?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s client list sound like a bad idea?
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if Buffet needs a new #2.
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if buffet needs a new #2.
How would you spend $1500 if you regularly forget stocks exist for months at a time? How do you decide which stocks are to be held and which losses cut?
Keep an eye on $MSFT (potential put money making opportunity)
If you had $40k to invest right now, what would you do with it?
The NYTs is suing Microsoft and I think there is a profitability play on their stocks
New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
Do you ever buy stocks outside of the indexes and Mag 7 near all time highs?
Question regarding this type of Play Option?
The biggest lesson that I've learned in my 10 year investing career.
MSFTs Open Ai will raise funds with valuation of $100B
Mentions
I was gonna do MSFT but man I’m kinda glad I didn’t the sentiment is just so shit even tho I believe we’ll be over 450 by the end of the year
I started using [AimyTrade](https://aimytrade. io? utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=comment&utm_campaign=smallstreetbets&utm_term=MSFT&utm_content=template_1775988658443_y7fyf8) for $MSFT when I didn't know where to start , it breaks everything down.
I am at the park with the kid, and was saying "i fukin hate this". an old lady came and explained to me gently that i should never "hate" and "hate" is never the answer. i showed her last 6 months of MSFT and she was like "i fucking hate this shit".
The way I see it, the level of research at the relevant companies is roughly comparable. The models are all LLMs, they perform within a few % of each other across various benchmarks, they likely cost similar amounts to train and to deploy. Which means you have a bunch of companies betting on a near-term future where they are able to monetize their model/ecosystem sufficiently for making huge amounts of profit. The problem I see is that since there's at least two (anthropic and openAI, but actually there are several more having raised billions already), they will compete in a race to the bottom. The first one to double their token price will just see customers switching to competition. And then you have Microsoft and Google. These guys are printing money. They don't rely on their LLMs or AI integration to make any money. They can match or even outspend the R&D budgets of pure-AI companies. Now, one could argue that smaller, younger, more dedicated companies can produce better results faster. But it seems like Google is producing top results in lockstep, or even ahead of the other big players. So, would I bet on IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.? Probably not. Because owning the distribution and the moat (the expensive 365 subscriptions and the all-encompassing ecosystem) is what likely will allow MSFT and google to make profit off of AI. They don't need to sell tokens to make money. MSFT just keeps milking their existing customers, providing more features. And Google will likely just implement ads in LLM output and charge billions for that.
My MSFT calls are in danger, AGAIN! Just like each day.
You're giving me hope that my MSFT stock won't get fucked even harder this week. I really hope I recover this week...
Sigh dude, the moment I go balls fucking deep into MSFT, is the moment talks shit the bed. I got in after the truce pop, and it's just been down hill from there. And now you're saying I"m fucked because Vance can't negotiate a fucking deal? What dumb fucks in the white house.
MSFT should not be a short term stock. It should be a 10-20yr hold. I still consider now a discounted buy. Virtually every major office in the USA uses MSFT as its backbone. Until that changes, I remain fairly confident in it long-term.
This entire war was only fabricated to give people more reasons and opportunities to dump MSFT. You can´t prove me otherwise.
The setup of all these still clunky and not integrated enough on their own. But it’s not like they can’t be done and it’s certainly something probable. Will it happen all at the same time? Probably not, and it depends on multiple parties’ direction to see how this thing will move. Although cheap India developer / ai developer didn’t work so well with MSFT.
France changing all gov computers from MSFT to Linux Canada PM giving speeches at rallies that they will buy euro military equipment instead of US going forward … every day a new headline proofing American exceptionalism is dead Why is 🥭 and his entire family not in prison?
“Potentiality there are other tools like say Google documents and now integrated with some ai stuff that does 90% of what office does. - this is not the reason comapnies by MSFT, there are 100#s of better tools then office or every MSFT tool (e.g., tableau > Power BI and so on). Companies buy because of compliance, and security and having all in one house where everything works well together (in theroy at least :D) - Claude e.g., is way better then Copilot but have fun trying to use that in a none startup not via MSFT.
This sub is basically a MSFT bagholder therapy club at this point.
Isn't MSFT probably the only safe ones right now? It's already down.
I took a nap earlier and had a dream where MSFT was green. Woke up mad as fuck with huge blue balls
I replied at another comment in this thread, my thoughts about MSFT: “Potentiality there are other tools like say Google documents and now integrated with some ai stuff that does 90% of what office does. Or say Apple up the game by being more game friendly and generally can run Linux stuff. Any one of those can happen in a very short time with some help of advancement of ai. Some of those are already happening, like those resume template “ai” sites that are better than MSword 10x.” (And the Aws vs azure, seemed aws is on the upper hand on that one)
I guess I would double down at 270. I'm not saying I think it will instantly turn around at 370 after it has been going down for so long. But I think it's a good price to start buying MSFT. Are you convinced MSFT isn't even worth it at those prices over the long term?
MSFT can be stay oversold for longer.
AMD yes. MSFT oversold
Bought AMD and MSFT calls.
This is a really good breakdown. You're right that the AC/DC split would naturally reflect the character of the underlying stock, and the buyback point is quite interesting - that's the kind of event that becomes much more visible when the components are separated. Your edit about the Verizon AC becoming high beta is a great observation. When you strip out the dividend stream from a stock that's primarily held for income, whatever's left on the capital appreciation side becomes a very different risk profile than the whole share. That could create some interesting opportunities for people who want exposure to specific risk characteristics without the full package. It's worth looking at what Permuto has published about how the trusts are structured. They're starting with MSFT, then expanding to AVGO and AAPL. I'd imagine the balance between AC and DC would look quite different across those three, which might be part of why they picked that lineup.
Boy you going to love MSFT at 270.
What a weird little innovation. OK ... so AC + DC = SP The asset certificate price plus the dividend certificate price has to equal the share price of the stock. Because that's what the share price buys you - capital appreciation and dividends. For high beta growth stocks AC = SP. Or close to it. For something like Verizon DC = SP or close to it. Something like MSFT would see more of a balance. Announced stock buyback programs would be big events for this sort of asset - increasing AC and decreasing DC immediately.
Idgaf what the macro conditions are right now: MSFT is on a huge clearance sale rn
SNDK is gonna pump and MSFT drill on Monday regardless of what the overall market does. Better to play individual tickers than the indices.
Guess I’ll be holding MSFT another week..
One day MSFT is just randomly gonna gap up 15% and we are all gonna shrug and say “that makes sense”
I don't understand. MSFT is currently priced around $370. What do you mean "a share"?
Brutal, critical minerals sector stocks are volatile, definitely rsiky business day trading in that market segment. Something that's worked for me is keeping my original UUUU position from August intact, but then trading smaller amounts, usually on very large intraday dips or the rare case when it starts approaching the 200dma (and then go bigger). Anyway, yeah, high beta stocks are difficult to trade without taking it on the chin here and there, and if you do, best to hold if possible (which is obviously easier if the positions are smaller rather than going all-in). Good luck with MSFT, it's certainly tanked hard and should bounce back eventually...
I don't like MSFT having stakes in openai. I think (just my personal opinion) that chatgpt will fail and that MSFT will drop hard on that news. That's the time I will pick it up until then it's just a too expensive to buy right now.
Can you short MSFT next please? My bags are heavy.
It's not just MSFT. Software in general has been toxic. It's hard to say what will happen until we see how ai actually affects saas in the long term.
Went in about 34k deep on MSFT leaps this week. Gonna need to see a return on that please..
I had MSFT for last 4 years, and recently got rid of it to get SNDK + MU. SOFI - never looked into it actually
I have $4000 I’m willing to go in on a share I dont have. Should I put all $4000 in it at once or should I be putting in $1000 – $2000 at a time? Share is MSFT
31% sounds scary but zoom out and it’s still up a ton over the last few years. ngl MSFT is one of the few mega caps I don’t mind DCAing into, but I also wouldn’t assume it rips back to ATHs fast if growth slows. I’ve just been adding small chunks and not thinking too hard about it lol.
I'm think the smart way is either IGV or a high conviction pick? Some might say it's the solid and oversold like CRM.ADBE. Others might say the must haves or security like NET/CRWD. My pick? MSFT. It's been sold off so much. Also MSFT has the means to survive given it is systemic foothold in operating system, diversification into cloud/gaming/socials/etc, has it's own AI setup, is a hyperscaler, cashflow/assets/credit, and is actually invested in the AI companies that are supposedly killing SaaS.
Hey Claude: "Will MSFT ever go up again?" Claude: "MSFT is currently experiencing it's worst downturn in almost two decades, since the 2008 financial meltdown. Your retirement is therefore bigly fukt and we suggest a Wendy's application may be in order to secure your financial future." Damn
Adbe yeah, crm/now maybe. But names like MSFT and PLTR i just dont see the bear case.
MSFT feels like meta end of 2022
lol I heard something similar, but instead of posts created, MSFT sell orders are placed...
Legend has it that every time one of these images are posted, 5 new MSFT posts are created.
That’s very interesting, I definitely looked at the lease the wrong way. I guess they technically have the right but have yet gotten actual approval. So in the revised 500$M a year that would be about 1.4$M a day, quite a bit less than the 11M. Do you see the committee coming back being more or less harsh when it comes to the state property and the royalties on them? Or do you see the possibility of the legislature not even allowing it to pass even though they were granted temp? That definitely helps with my rational for hiring Cliff. My rationale was they brought him on for procurement but if the current legislation is being written still then I’d assume that’s his main role now. I know he relocated to Mn. back in Nov as a full time member but I’d assume him taking the position as president shows he believes they will get favourable measures. They also could have just paid him out, I doubt this though. Are you accredited by chance? Could grab shares before they hit the open market. I know they have orders already from MSFT actually (I just started a position in MSFT so I was doing a deep dive) Do you like OKLO? You used to be in nuclear eng?? That’s cool asf where’d you go to school. Are you still working in the field or have you moved on? Yea I just bought another 1000 shares before market close. I don’t often gamble but might as well go big, I have the same conviction for this as I did with RKLB @4$
MSFT and IGVs chart moving very similar.
Same here. I got in few weeks ago on $366 but signals and commentary is mixed about the company’s future. However one thing I knpw, MSFT is undisputed king of corporate software. So that is there to stay no matter what all AI guys are doing. You cannot get close 1 meter to corps without holding msft hand
Oh boy. I like MSFT to recover a little but I would have chosen META/AMZN/GOOGL
With how things are looking MSFT may just be green on Monday
I forgot it was the weekend. i was surprised why MSFT wasn't red today
I bought my first LEAPs this week on MSFT - wish me luck
Full port MSFT LEAPS. Moon ticket?
MSFT is down big and everyone is hating hard on it. Could be the time. I’d wait to see if and how it reacts to $350, but that’s the beauty of leaps if you’re willing to take a little pain.
well i'v held it for 30 years, bought in at 30-60 bucks. I think one issue for the drop is AI supposed to cause layoffs in tech companies and other businesses which would affect seat licenses causing MSFT to lose income. I'm not selling but waiting to see if AI really does cause enough layoffs to make MSFT lose market share.
I'm exactly in the same boat. I do not need the money right now but I am learning this so that I have a way to generate some income in case the seemingly inevitable layoff happens. I just started in January with a put credit spread and then moved to iron condors. I was doing great until Microsoft shat the bed, so right now I have had 88% success ratio. Here's what I am doing with the caveat that I am also learning, have margin available and I am very conservative. I will shift most of my trades to QQQ and SPY, always enter under .150 delta and will try to get out as soon as possible. I may take opportunistic trades on other tickers but being very careful. This Delta is non negotiable for me, I want as low risk as possible. I am doing mostly 5-spreads on credit vertical spreads and 10-spread on iron condors. I still need more discipline getting out of a losing trade, sadly didn't manage it with MSFT and I got burned with a max loss, it was just 5 contracts fortunately. Another important thing. This account is a 1/3 of my investments so I can tolerate some losses there
MSFT is far from down the most And OP bought shares, far from a YOLO
Oh no.... You mentioned buying stocks like MSFT and TSLA. Reddit will either tear you apart or call this AI slop.
Can't wait for my MSFT leaps to hit 0
What if MSFT is going down because people are buying calls and MMs hedge
The MSFT OpenAI connection can't be that bad lmao
MSFT is cooked. Not because the French, but AI will render its OS and Office products useless. Their AI strategy backfired. They're truly rudderless for a multi-trillion dollar behemoth. Azure will also lose customers to AWS and GCP, I doubt they will recover.
Aint no way MSFT has been a titan since 20 years and will collapse once I bought
Part of me wonders if this is Epstein related. If Bill Gates could be blackmailed, then who knows what backdoors MSFT software has in it that, say, the Russians or Israeli's have. It seems prudent to hedge your bets and switch to software that is less of a security threat.
I started my MSFT position at $370 last week, should I be worried?
I gained 10 lbs stress eating from holding MSFT
Microslop the new slur for MSFT, still will prolly go up too
God dammit i hate MSFT so much i wish i bought VOO lol
France to remove MSFT tools such as zoom and Teams and replace them with their own versions. Honestly fucking smart. How can you say you take security seriously when you send every iota of information off to a foreign server and use AI for worker productivity
Probably arguing over calls or puts on MSFT.
Calls for me, it doesn’t impact much from MSFT Overall revenue long term still cheap as f
Is the peace deal going to include some MSFT software licenses?
Unpopular opinion: I think the CEO and upper management is doing a terrible job at Microsoft. I’m (indirectly) heavily invested in MSFT via mutual funds and indexes.
Stocks not going below zero is the only salvation of MSFT bagholders
Yes- this is EU for “even if you have a better, cheaper product we DGAF because now it is a risk to our sovereignty.” This is gonna go far beyond MSFT.
i don't get people invest in MSFT. there office software got stale and questionable. plus apple going after their market share.
Wow I really caused the destruction of MSFT by going long. Why does this always happen to me. Lol
Is that your 1 share of MSFT?? 😂😂😂
MSFT's biggest risk right now is their commitment to OpenAI, but who knows, OpenAI's IPO could be surprisingly good too. I don't see AI (or Claude) as competitors to Office. Usage of Office software can never be 100% replaced by AI, and their cloud business is really solid too. That said, i probably wouldn't have bought if their P/E is near historical highs. I would guess their growth would be solid, not spectacular. MSFT is definitely a value investment for me.
I guess that's why MSFT has been tanking recently.
Remember inverse WSB. MSFT has sold off significantly couple more negative news and then huge money will start piling in. Than you’ll see post on here saying why is MSFT spiking when there’s negative news
They need to get copilot on the same level as Claude and then they will have all the distribution with vsCode and do well. Also MSFT has a lock in effect w all their office product. With agents running around the office products are like a common interface agents can interface with and automate tasking. How’s your agent going to know how to work w company B’s one off vibe coded excel replacement? They aren’t MSFT is fine
I don’t know - i am a Microsoft certified trainer whom uses Arch in wsl and I love Linux, but the MSFT eco system, is pretty good. But doesn’t your comment make my point? I just don’t see this ever working out
The real elephant in the room is the seat-count risk. If AI agents actually deliver on productivity, MSFT’s core per-user licensing model effectively becomes its own worst enemy. The market is finally waking up to the fact that a compute-based economy might actually be deflationary for the Office cash cow.
It’s not as easy to get off MSFT ecosystem, MSFT has diversified offerings including OS, Active Directory/Entra, Databases (MSSQL server), Azure, O365 suite (Teams, Outlook, Office), etc which keeps ecosystem in sync and very efficient. it’s not just Windows OS, what people don’t understand is when stuff goes wrong who do they call? When it comes to large environments, mix of both nix and Windows is a good combo, but when people don’t understand how tech works, it’s easy for them to make statements that may tank the stock which you sort of are seeing now. MSFT is one of the most diversified and highly competitive businesses out there.
Yeah that's been bugging me. I see you've entered MSFT too. I'm planning on doing the same at 370. Do you think MSFT has a risk of underperforming because of competition? And would you still have entered at this price if you didn't know the past P/E and prices?
Doesn't MSFT do that? I get options for Claude or OpenAI in copilot ...
the move is not against MSFT specifically, it's strategic, about preventing being cut off on the whim of an unfriendly us president
Windows isn't MSFT's growth engine, nor its future. That would be azure, which is growing like crazy. Usually i roll my eyes a bit when 17+ people comment "priced in." But in this case, i think this shit's def already priced in.
Not at all that’s a boomer stock that only went down because of the SaaS scare it will reach ATH eoy and no I don’t even own MSFT but feel that way
Used half of my port to buy MSFT on Friday. How fucked am I?
This is actually the best advice. Don’t sell winners—much better to lose relatively small profits if things go south than miss out on massive gains from sitting and holding. My net worth would be triple what it is now if I’d simply held onto my basket from 15 yrs ago, which I thought I killed merely by doubling what now would be a small investment for me (TSLA, GOOG, MSFT). Bottom line: BUY AND HOLD YOUR WINNERS. SELL ONLY WHEN YOU NEED THE MONEY OR THINK THERE’S A BETTER PLAY TO ROTATE INTO. Invest new money in other stocks or accumulate more of your winners.
Hope so I got calls Friday. SPY, AMD, MSFT. MSFT is probably a bad idea but I think it's beyond oversold.
Youll be fine long term. MSFT at around the same P/E as the S&P is a good deal. Probably trades closer to 30 p/e in the next 5years. But you day trade... tbh I doubt you have that kinda patience. Something will peak your interest and youll gamble somewhere else
Its not certain that MSFT will go up. However political people routinely know about upcoming policy/law changes and he might have good (inside) info that MSFT is going to profit The reason for buying ITM calls is to gain exposure to higher deltas while also limiting the loss. So in case of this senator, if price goes down, he wont lose more than the value of the options (basically 370 todays price - 325)
the real lesson here isn't bull vs bear.... it's that directional bias based on *feeling* the market should go down is what kills accounts, not the actual market direction. MSFT and NOW are solid fundamental plays to rebuild on, but the most important trade you made today was the psychological one... dropping the ego and going back to what actually worked for 3 years.
Nice! I'm actually considering swapping some INTC gains to MSFT as my exposure to INTC now is a bit too high percentage wise
Been there for 3 months because the guy who gave me advice told me to buy the dip. Stuck at $375 MSFT and $145 Oracle. Gonna dump that shit and buy random space stocks.
Bought puts on MSFT at close. You're welcome, fellow regards.