Reddit Posts
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT hits positive net gamma exposure right now
I’m rotating around 80% of my MSFT position into META. Here’s my reasoning.
Ban bet Nintendo stock to $16 by EOY and if it hits $16 I’ll donate some switch 2s to children Hospitals
Where would you put surprise inheritance money
Big Tech's Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are distorting the corporate earnings picture
four green days, one red, and the red one is the only one i learned anything from
FOLLOW UP POST - Full Port Microsoft - Undervalued !!! 🚀📈
Mentions
MSFT is gonna get slaughtered now that I’ve bought leaps right?
I think we are cooked bros, they are already dumping ahead of the NVDA/MSFT Conference tomorrow, as soon as Jensen comes on we are going to get rugged
tomorrow TSLA 360 MSFT 505 AAPL 325 WDC 450 SKHY 170 will cash out and delete my app if this happens :)
#Tech funds: We have a sophisticated proprietary investment strategy to identify tech stocks” #Their Portfolio: NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, AVGO, AMD #LMAO🤌
MSFT will probably dip right? Right?
Just buy Google's enemies stock MSFT and AAPL
Your datapoint is not accurate, it's down 20% from all time highs, not on the year. For instance a dog like KHC is probably near decade from its all time high, but not down 20% for the year. However cumulative earnings and revenue is rising. The reality is you have companines like NVDA MSFT GOOGL AAPL that have net income of over $100b/year with NVDA cracking $200b/year soon. Won't be long before AMZN joins that $100b. Not only are the numbers huge, they are growing. How many of the bottom SP500 would you need to account for to touch $100b, $200b, $500b of net income? That is why the weight of the index is skewed, because so are the profits. When a compnay has $30-50b of net income in the quarter and growing that at just 10%, that delta alone is more than what many of the bottom SP500 companies make in just revenue, nevermind profit.
Up 37% on my MSFT and the pump is finally happening it seems
MSFT 540 and SPX 7850 and I’ll be done for the day, then it can do whatever
Multiple times in the past months I was about to sell calls on my MSFT positions. Everytime I wouldve gotten rekt hard. The one time I bought a call it was a major win. Unfortunately I was a pussy and only bought 1 instead of 10. Couldve made 70-80k
Oh it will pop. Where is the revenue going to come from to justify the CAPeX spending? Anthropic and OpenAI are in trouble. Google and MSFT will be fine bc they are established businesses. Hell Oracle just announced they sent a Force Majeure notice to the developer bldg out Project Jupiter. Hello?
Wild that MSFT was under 350 a few weeks back
also what these permabears either forget or just simply are ignorant of, there have been multiple 20% drops already, or more, among almost all the AI companies outside of GOOGL at some point since the start of the AI bull run. That includes MSFT, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MU, SNDK, MRVL, SMCI, etc. etc.
Open source agent competition and commoditization of *most* AI product cases is the most likely bubble burster to me. If Anthropic and OpenAI (and MSFT, Meta, SPCX XSIgbq+ etc...) can't monetize up to what is forecasted (or rather dreamed of) then alot of this debt and capex starts to look reaaaallll unfortunate.
Strong performance from SPY, MSFT
guys MSFT is going straight to ATHs
VT? Told holding NVDA, MSFT. AAPL. AMZN. GOOG, TSM you are so protected from AI downturn
The user you replied to was not talking about the economic standing of the "average person." They were talking about the disconnect between stock market prices and business fundamentals. The highest valued companies, like META, NVDA, TSLA, and GOOG, are not making profits that justify their valuations. They are valued based on growth despite already being the largest companies on Earth. For them to grow, the entire economy would have to grow dramatically more than it ever has before. Growth in the past has been driven by increased populations, improved living standards and consumption, and expansion into new markets. In the absence of these factors, it is not rational to imagine economic growth would accelerate or even remain constant. What you are suggesting about the distinction between luxury spending and general consumer spending would only make sense if the top companies were luxury companies. Current growth is not driven by luxury stocks (e.g. RACE is way down from last year), and in fact the vast majority of stocks are trending downward. The main stocks driving growth are technology companies that play in advertising spaces (GOOG, META), companies that sell consumer technology (AAPL, MSFT), and AI-related companies (NVDA) which currently have no profitable end user to speak of. These companies are not profitable from the spending of the top tenth or quartile of consumers. Their stock growth is based on speculation.
MSFT headed to $900
MSFT announced 10-20% cloud cost increases for customers starting next year and people still think MSFT will only go down from this point onwards lmao
and GOOG being outmogged by MSFT
I hear ya, but I just sold about 11,000 shares of AMD(we'll see if that was a good call), 5,000 of MSFT and I've been buying the 30 year when it's around 5.7). Not a ton, but... enough. And I'm still heaviest in NVDA and AMZN. So it's not a YOLO type trade. It's... probably good advice as a general rule, but I fucking LOVE SKHY's set up. I love MUs, but I think SKHY is even better.
I love $MSFT more than I love my own children
EVERY other time I've bought calls, or leaps(only ever leaps) I've held for less than 1 month. NVDA, MSFT were at 163 and 350 earlier this year. I bought 200 and 202 contracts at 215 and 500. In one month(almost exactly) it was at 210 and 480 and I sold. Just... took the winner. Same with shorts on WLMT and COST in Feb of '24. 3 weeks, sold. A couple other examples, but I don't do this much. But SKHY should hit 300 by the time those first set expire and I think it could go earlier. It's bigger than Micron, their price caps are off. They're selling almost 3X as much HBM4 to NVDA for Rubin and the COST is about 2.7X as much... and they are responsible for about 55-60% of the HBM4 share. PLUS, 2027 and 2028 being the largest memory shortages in history, unlike MU, THEY can still raise their price for peak pricing. I also think it's going to become less cyclical and it deserves a forward PE of at least 10-12. If it traded at JUST 12X Forward, it's 484. So I don't need some heroic move to get there. Also, I'm not using any leverage.
Everyone is pumping MSFT, time for the algos dump:)
I’m not a chartist, But MSFT’s chart looks g00d
just in time for WoW Forever calls on MSFT
$META and $MSFT are cutting internal Claude use as AI bills climb with Microsoft slashing per employee budgets from $100K to $10K a month and Meta pushing Muse Code even as Claude spend stays massive.
At Oil Price $88 handle, inflation & CPI probably already below 2% All sectors at 52 week low, where only few stocks pump index to all time high with AI-vibe $META $GOOG $ORCL $AMZN $MSFT $CRWV $NBIS $NVDA $MU $AVGO look market cap vs earnings power, when negative cash flow big
1R3N dare not target a $MSFT datacenter. The economic ramifications would be a revolting like the world will never know again.
Nvda, Tesla, MSFT, apple, Amazon, google, meta, AMD alone holding the market
So, 5 companies (MemeVDA, Apple, MSFT, Amazon and Meta) now represent 54% of the Chadsdaq, where MemeVDA weights 13.14% LMAO
MSFT and NVDA saved my life. Archer Aviation tried to put me out
I like the monthly updates. They show the thoughts of a normal investor instead of the worries of the get-rich-quick posters we frequently see here. That's an odd mix of stocks but I won't criticize the choices. You had your reasons and I support them. I'm less interested in how well they're doing then the process of what positions you are considering adding to, decreasing, or buying for the first time. You had an encouraging 2023 and 2024 to make up for the 1st year, and I think you were wise to diversify and accept lower gains. Although you may have some regrets on NVDA and AMD, I think it was the right move in decreasing those positions. McDonalds was a brave choice this month since they are struggling, but it could pay off nicely. The company is unlikely to disappear. I'm unclear on some of the purchases this year. I can't tell if you were adding to existing positions or creating new ones. If all new, you've been especially active and I hope you've done your research instead of acting on fears of missing out. I think you might consider more ETFs. Picking the right individual stocks is hard. Maybe sell off 10% of MSFT sometime next year and get an ex-US ETF or a large-cap value ETF.
Your stock sales were ill-timed I would say after today's moves in NVDA & MSFT, especially.
MSFT calls and APLD earnings
So is MSFT, PLTR, SPCX, TSLA. why would you go for QCOM??
Many people know the about the UN's article on the human right to life essentials: water, food and shelter Not many people know the UN listed a hidden 4th essential for human life: $MSFT
MSFT new price target is 665. Could see 550 by next Friday. 3 month chart wants a leg up.
Believe it or not, MSFT is still worth buying at current prices
NVDA and MSFT double top situation kinda got me nervous ngl
MSFT has become one of the most manipulated stock on the market.
I just have some calls expiring Friday... nothing big. MSFT is my big holding as I used to work there. Sold covered calls at 530 a couple weeks ago. Those might get assigned.
MSFT was dead and hit $350 less than 6months ago.
Started on MSFT moooning off a price target raise and now it's going up because of vibes.
MSFT is so gay, just pump back to $530, you fuck
Forget VOO & chill, it's now MSFT-GOOG & chill
God damn. MSFT and META just won’t stop.
What TF happen to MSFT
LOL they told me MSTR and MSFT were going to 0
I am trading in a hotel room and the chick next door is getting banged so hard against the headboard it made me fat finger and buy 1000 MSFT :-(
Why is MSFT starting to dip again
Michael Burry sold MSFT but kept LULU and made it his core long. What
Shouldn’t have sold my MSFT calls lol- Made a good +150% profit on a small play at open, but it keeps going up 😩🥹
All in MSFT in June was an elite pivot
MSFT upgraded target to $665. 550 by next friday.
Friday's price action on MSFT was an absolute scam.
MSFT slangin big green dick
Thought I would never say this but my MSFT calls are saving me right now 🤡
MSFT making moves. Ok i see you Satya!
MSFT is the way fellow regards
"It's Co-Pilot's time! MSFT going higher. Big move coming" ---- Jim Cramer
Cmon MSFT hit that 530 today
Probably but some of us try. And we get crapped on . Anyways. MSFT
Oh here come the headlines to save the market from Dumping too much. MSFT price upgrade
holy MSFT shrek dihhh. WTFF IS GOING ON
Goog **340.35+5.42(+1.62%)** At close: October 2 at 4:00:01 PM EDT **340.38+0.03(+0.01%)** Overnight: 12:57:02 AM EDT Fuck it ill just take your word for ir on MSFT at least
damn, there go my MSFT calls :(
Softwares (and MSFT gets treated as software by algos)/hyperscalars and semis have had this inverse relationship since the beginning of the year. At the start of the year, most hyperscalars started announcing insane capex increase and at that time they all got hit significantly while semis/memories gained and since then algos have started trading them in an intertwined manner.
MSFT is going to lose the AI wars. How can you sell software that your AI agents can make? How can you sell server space that your AI agents already use for you? MSFT is good at corporate security but AI will figure that out, too.
Yeah it still makes no fuckign sense to me, AI/HArdware up MSFT down for like the past few months, they fucking have skin in the game
My MSFT and GOOG have been good to me, but I have been trimming my exposure all year. I have been putting my money into my voo (yes I know, still lots of the tech exposure) , vxus, and some into jepq. I went from around $80k in each to $50k in each. I will re-assess in the next couple months.
MSFT looks like another leg up on the 3 month. So yes
I’m gonna buy MSFT, let it run after earnings, and then sell. My company is getting ripped off by overpriced GitHub Copilot credits — Wall Street gonna love it
ADBE, MSFT, RDDT 20% up in the next Fee weeks or calls in rope.
Stick that mf in some 2x tech tickers, MSFT META GOOG
problem is over yrs people/algos learned a lot what to do with dips. Unless something huge like covid, u wont get >10% dip anymore. But many possibilities are open when it comes to individual stocks. I bought (started buying actually) big/stable companies on dips such as MSFT, Meta, SPGI, Novo, amzn, fico, MA, software CRM/NOW/veeva etc since earlier year. I bought slowly, across the board and never leveraged. Also u never know u r in deepest bottom, so slowly steadily buying. So far, im well above sp500 YTD like 5-6% (including "failed" stocks such as fico, netflix, novo. Im not gonna stop, im not selling like a panic manic, but i bit trimmed if stock went above 25%. Lets see how things [work.So](http://work.So) far im happy. Also, Ive patience to wait for companies/stocks/sentiment turnaround. Same thing i did in July when Leopold crashed Ai stocks - sandisk/mu/wdc/soxx/photoics, and those r doing well (except wdc dipped yesterday again) green.
Took advantage of GOOG last year and MSFT this year with LEAPS.
They have so much business news and deals bro. MSFT, AWS, GOOGL, just announced new low orbit defense system satalites and defense contracts.
Looking to sell my final MSFT leap up 120%, any suggestions?
Smaller guys? Who are the smaller guys? Chinese labs? Europe's Mistral? Or the ones that just are inbetweens selling API access to the bigger players/self-hosting free open-source models for gpu rental? Nah, I'd say the ones to keep an eye on are ORCL OpenAI and Anthropic. If OpenAI goes bust then MSFT and the other big private investors will inherit their model, same with anthropic. ORCL is a weak link and I'm not sure if it qualifies for too big to fail. All that being said, imagine how cheap GPUs and memory get if orcl implodes, self-hosted big-ai or the small players doing gpu rental would feast if anything.
July right before the august shrekcock? I gained 120% on MSFT LEAPS lol
MSFT. Turned out not to be a terrible choice.
i’m same – i just sold my last NVDA, GOOGL and MSFT because the GPU price curve looks like a steep dropcone that never opened up again. even if hyperscalers scream a 30% ROIC, the reality is the $0.6‑$0.9 trillion gap they need is unlikely to close without a true “trillion dollar AI” boom that the market hasn’t shown. what I see is that GPU inflation stems more from the supply side bubble and the hype cycle than from a sustainable business model, so it feels safer to exit before the next round of AI‑spending mania turns into a bust.
memory peaked right around end of june right when MSFT bottomed
US bonds lost their safe haven status and it went to MSFT instead is quite funny
Some day MSFT and GOOG will hold an open, but that is not anytime soon fml
What was your cost basis? Because holding onto 8 MSFT contracts to expiration could’ve actually fucked you beyond recovery.
NVDA is buying back $150 Billion of their own stock screams “do not sell”. And Google and MSFT are money making machines.
I got NOK $11s for January. If NVDA, MSFT and Google believe in them so do I. 6g here we come and defense satellites.