Reddit Posts
Stop looking at QQQ and SPX. The AI trade already crashed underneath it.
WoW Forever. the real reason the ai market crashed today. just listen..
Why the post-midterm AI sell-off is a massive overreaction (Congressional stock disclosures inside)
Why the post-midterm AI sell-off is a massive overreaction (Congressional stock disclosures inside)
Why the post-midterm AI sell-off is a massive overreaction (Congressional stock disclosures inside)
Microsoft tightens oversight of neocloud data center projects with Nebius, IREN, and CoreWeave
Tax-loss harvest without losing exposure
Am I dum dum or should we not long GOOG/Short MSFT?
We’re in an anti-bubble bubble
How to turn $20,000 into $$216 million with $MSFT in one easy step [time travel involved].
Genuinely scared , NQ could be down nearly 3% by NY OPEN
EBAY has outperformed AMZN, GOOG, MSFT and META over the past year
EBAY has outperformed AMZN, GOOG, MSFT and META over the past year
Amazon misses on earnings and holds capex steady, adding to AI spending jitters
So it turns out that a year ago the bears were RIGHT: AI is cannibalizing Google Search
GOOGL: Everyone Was Bullish Yesterday, Now Google Is Suddenly Dead?
Oracle is backing off from cash burning. Will more companies follow?
Anthropic S-1 DD: the $80.7B loss is a mark on Amazon's notes, and Broadcom is backstopping $29B of Anthropic's rack leases
Holding both GOOG and MSFT into Wednesday's earnings: the 3 things I'm actually watching for each
Anthropic S1 - solid Growth. Encouraging direction..But ... Extreme Client Concentration and $450 Billion commits: The hidden operational Debt anchor
Anthropic - solid Growth. Encouraging direction...can they be the Google or SpaceX of the market?
Anthropic S1 - solid Growth. Encouraging direction but what about valuation? Inside Anthropic's Pre-IPO Financials
Anthropic S1 - who is ready to Buy the absolute top of the AI hype cycle. Inside Anthropic's Pre-IPO Financials
Dell is up over 200% in a year while almost everyone actually buying the racks has been getting smoked
DeepSeek just open-sourced its production inference engine (running on Huawei & Nvidia) the exact same day DHS banned it across all US federal supply chains.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Forget the distractions, the AI trade hinges on Metas earnings report this week
We have now entered the next phase of the AI super cycle and here are the likely winners and losers
MSFT options collar: Avoiding constructive sale designation and understanding if strategy is sound.
If you had $100k to put into just one stock, what would you pick?
How do you think about holding concentrated positions after big gains?
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Mentions
So, after the 4% correction yesterday what they can do now is trim some mag 7's like GOOG and MSFT while propping up the rest of the market. $SPY Calls for next week.
>MSFT, the guys bankrolling most of the AI surge (>60% of CRWV revenue, >40% of IREN/NScale revenue, significant ORCL revenue), signaling they're bowing out Market: hahahaha, let's ignore that
MSFT either has a client requesting newer generation or they themselves have a desire to use it. The reports are IREN Horizon 2 is delayed delivery because MSFT asked for some changes - connecting the dots now it is probably something similar. Just because the older generation doesn't fit a specific use case, does not mean it is still not in demand.
realized vol is crazy man, maybe MSFT and Apple is not that bad but the rest, hell no this is the time for buying hedges when vol pulls back or for gamma scalping
ORCL both has less debt, better balance sheet, and declining CDS spreads but it gets hit much harder on the MSFT news than CRVW. Make it make sense
Back up to where we were before the MSFT ORCL announcement. Never could have seen that one coming...
Got cheap OTM puts in the am, sold on the dump with the MSFT news
MSFT not needing as much compute is Bullish chip makers right? :kek: :kek:
should be bullish for neoclouds. I just don't see $MSFT using less compute at any time in the future. gotta get it somewhere.
if you pressed me on it think all this bullish for $MSFT v bearish anything else they are and have been good stewards of their dollars in CAPEX and only seems to be increasing that of late.
Lmao MSFT says they're winding down renting AI computing from ORCL and losers think it means AI is winding down. Heads up, its because they've managed to bring enough of their own servers online that they dont need ORCL
MSFT canceled the compute deal with ORCL because compute demand is SOOOO HIGH!!!! :kek: :kek: :kek:
ORCL and MSFT compute news, msft doesnt wanna renew contract
Team Oracle and MSFT teamed up to FUCK YOUR CALLS
Capex projections about to get slashed 1 after another. MSFT announcement only the first of many more to come.
It’s a self preservation move. Not really bullish for anyone but MSFT.
MSFT just loaded the next leg down for Ai :clifford: :clifford: :clifford:
MSFT the first the cut compute spend. Only the start of this chain reaction. Hold on to your butts.
MSFT canceling the Oracle deal is the canary in the coal mine
MSFT winding down the amount of AI cloud compute they’re renting from ORCL
MSFT to wind down ORCL compute deal lmao
They got most everything covered options wise. Probably won't see much movement than what we've seen without some big news. Maybe adjustments right at eod. $MSFT and $AMZN are overbought by $2-3 but not a significant imbalance
serious question. you think weekly DCA into MSFT/NVDA/PLTR will be good moves during these times
LOL remember back in the summer when everyone wouldn't touch MSFT — only to see it rise 40%+? I bought a ton of MSFT then… I don't think AI or data is going anywhere. Red or Blue, everyone wants and uses tech.
Why are MSFT puts 4x the cost from 2 days ago lol
MSFT’s resilience to inverse the market regardless of the situation should be researched
MSFT, AMZN, GOOG cloud services growth beg to differ.
MSFT is red and GOOGL is green lol
MSFT up bigly and GOOGL down bigly 🤔🤔🤔
Friendly reminder the Pelosi's portfolio is all NVIDIA, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO, etc. I know she's retired but still.
I planted a seed yesterday why aren't I already eating the apples? Meanwhile MSFT has been leveraging AI for 3 years and their revenue has grown 56% with flat staff count. Start looking around and making your own decisions. Go read what AON, AJG, and CHRW have all said about AI in the past couple weeks. The old measure of productivity is dead. Now its about shorter timelines, faster deliveries, more code, high revenue, And etc.
MSFT a total turd once it let go of 540 yesterday. My calls in the toilet now won’t even bounce
$MSFT is laying off 60k people...dont think jobs gonna be fine
This is all so stupid. The future is AI. Nothing is going to change that. The AI has to run somewhere and that will be the cloud. So you buy Google, Amazon and MSFT. But do like Google the best of the three by far. Google is growing their cloud way faster than everyone else. Not just in percentages but in actual dollars. Google blew away Amazon in growth, QoQ, last quarter and their lead is accelerating.
GOOG META MSFT PLTR SPCX All have OPERATING profits from AI cloud and mkdels. And don't bring up mark to market. That's why I exclaimed operating profits. Idiot.
Hold to zero is hardly relevant to hyperscalers. MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOG
MSFT 568 -> 503 (-11.5%). Low 3 days ago.
Whose making money other than NVDA? GOOG, AMZN, META are negative FCF. MSFT is getting there too. Neoclouds never made a penny of profit. Open AI or Anthropics? LMAO.
Stocks I was looking at (bought all except MSFT): SPCX -46.6% GOOG -31.8% NVDA -26.4% AMZN -25.5% META -25.1% MSFT -11.4% AAPL -9.0% Not buying yet:
$CRWV and $ORCL can't expand and continue financing operations with debt, can't repay loans (hits VC, PE, Inst. Banks). $NVDA loses some of its largest customers. $GOOG, $MSFT and hyperscalers lose huge portion of future growth prospects as compute supply is evaporated, struggle to pay back loans (further hits financial firms, chip firms). OpenAI and Anthropic can't meet its compute commitments, possible default on debt as well. It's all a grade A cluster
She used the word "Partnership" twice. Her stance is not an ideology. It's negotiating. Dario/Sam/MSFT/AMZN....give her what she wants.
I had MSFT and IWM swings with puts. Took profit early but happy
VGT is wonderful. I was a big time owner of VITAX until I changed it to VGT and then liquidated my entire position to buy MSFT at the correct value. I did that because of Charlie Munger, who said: "What you have to learn is to fold early when the odds are against you, or if you have a big edge, back it heavily because you don't get a big edge often. Opportunity comes, but it doesn't come often, so seize it when it does comes." MSFT was an obvious pound the table buy this year. At this point, I think GOOGL will become that and buying GOOGL individually would be better than the index as a whole given it has become so mispriced (and still might fall further).
Oh, I see I thought you meant put out of business but yeah, it'd be nice if META or MSFT bought them
> MSFT, META and GOOGL might as well announce today they will reduce capex spending. what difference would that make. They have real customers with real compute demand who are paying real money. They probably won't cut back that much because it would cause those customers to flee to another provider. This mechanic has been thoroughly discussed over the last two years. Anyway, the comment I wanted to make was: The market is announcing it for them.
$MSFT down mildly. That means big gain to end the week. Right? Right?
Exactly. Once again, here we are at "the wall of worry" that we've been climbing for centuries with both retail and institutions deciding what narrative to which they want to link their accounts. During GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT earnings calls over the last two weeks, multiple banks asked the same question various ways: "Is AI buildout capex spending getting to be too much? Too risky? What is the threat to free cash flow?" The stocks took a few gut punches in the headlines on Bloomberg, CNBC, and even here in various posts, and the stocks dropped. Today, the pervasive worry seems to be this "Are Dems going to kill the AI trade by slowing buildout?" narrative. So, are we worried about capex burn destroying free cash flow but fueling AI and "beating China"? Legislative regulation that likely slows down capex spend but preserves free cash flow? People can worry about whatever they want, but worrying about both of these questions is pointless and not exactly profitable from an investor standpoint.
Terrible take. The big three US models are taking off in the enterprise, and some studies are linking them to productivity improvements in the US. Some companies like MSFT are even finding paths to profit, and seeing their copilot seats soar. This is why the dc regulation also might be a huge self own for the US, especially since there’s so much misinformation surrounding dcs. They have a significantly less environmental impact than agriculture and industry, yet many are powering not just AI but the digital economy.
CVS, PYPL, and ULTA right now. I sold MSFT early this year but everything else has pretty much stayed the same throughout the year other than adding to my positions where necessary. I'm generally very concentrated (less than 10 stocks) and hold for 5 years minimum with few exceptions.
MSFT will probably inherit GPT and googl/amzn calude.
I posted [this morning](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1xofthb/comment/19s6e77wmb4f5/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) that I thought the setup for today looked rough. Did I think it was 5%+ bad? Not necessarily. But there were major factors I've been tracking for a while that were screaming that the potential was there. Since you were looking for more information, I'll explain my reasoning. Sorry for the length in advance: 1) First off, I massively de-risked back in July. I saw a lot of indications back then that something was starting to change. I'll pat myself on the back a bit for getting one of the most optimal points to get out of the pool back (missed the optimal by a few weeks). I have 2 401s, one of which had been 85%+ tech since all the way back post-GFC. I completely converted it to an 80/20 Boglehead setup. The big indicators for me were the massive topping pattern in KORU and the KOSPI sell-off as well as MU earnings marking the top in the memory trade. 2) Elaborating on the above, I watch leadership more than anything to anticipate market performance. Quite frankly, I don't care how consumer staples are doing. We could keep going up so long as the Semis and Mag7 were strong. Hence, I already kind of thought we were on borrowed time as the memory trade unwound as what was going to replace that? Leadership only continued to erode from then to the point we were basically held up by AMD, NVDA, and MSFT. Yeah, three companies basically. I'm kind of surprised more people weren't noticing how bad this was getting. 3) The Nasdaq lost support 5 trading days ago. The S&P technically briefly lost it, reclaimed it and tried to push into the moving average stack yesterday, and got swatted back down. That was a pretty bearish look. 4) Credit spreads have been blowing out for weeks. This is like the most consistently accurate super bearish indicator I've ever discovered to the point it's a cheat code. It perfectly predicted the Iran War decline, the Fall lows of last year, and Liberation Day. The market will always stay up if flows support it no matter what dumb narrative is out there. The second money dries up on the other hand, you have to watch your butt. There are some other minor things, but that's how I constructed my own reasoning as to how I was able to detect something was about to occur and what I did about it. Which was just selling tech out of my 401, raising cash, and sticking to day trading over buying much for the long-term.
They're just not going to build this shit, because the ROI is not there. Businesses planned on doubling their AI spending this year, and instead almost went 5x because of the extreme token burn the agentic age brought. Businesses just aren't making the money to justify the spend; almost 70% of all current compute spend is just Google/OpenAI/Anthropic frontier labs trying to chase AGI. Even the big boys are scaling back, MSFT murdered Nscale with a big commitment cancellation this week. AI's a big thing, but not in the "this is going to double our GDP" way that they were promising.
Too much over reaction. US GDP, 30 Trillion, beyond any single party left or right BigTech know how to work with both wings. Whoever invite, they go along to meet their profit margin, left & right doesn’t mater $GOOG $META $MSFT $NVDA $AMZN $CAT $JPM $GS all saw many midterm
+17.58% after today. Outside of FXAIX 401k contributions, about 10% of my portfolio is AMD, GOOG, MSFT, INTC, NVDA in order of size
Too much over reaction. US GDP, $30 Trillion, beyond any single party left or right BigTech know how to work with both wings. Whoever invite, they go along to meet their profit margin, left & right doesn’t mater $GOOG $META $MSFT $NVDA $AMZN $CAT $JPM $GS all saw many midterm before
Options contracts are not obligations for the buyer. For the seller of the contract, yes they are The buyer has the right to exercise or not. Im just gonna work with your last example: if MSFT is trading at $100 and i buy a call option with a $300 strike price, i am BUYING the RIGHT to purchase MSFT from the seller at $300/share At any point i can exercise my right to buy MSFT for $300 and the seller has to honor that right. I can also fuck off and never exercise my right. I can also sell the contract to someone else The current value of an option contract is based on a variety of factors (the greeks), but the easiest to understand is the difference in the current trading price$, and my strike price. For calls; if its trading below the strike price my right to buy is pointless because i can get it for cheaper on the stock market, but if its trading above my strike price i basically have the right to purchase at a discount Puts are the flip side of this. So reverse everything and thats whats goin on in the screenshot above
I had MSFT calls at 540, down another $5 after hours WTF
AMZN and MSFT have been buying GPU without the data centers to put in being ready . . . if they decide to recover some of their investment there could be a long time to wait for demand for new chips to get back to normal
Neoclouds basically have to do a cash raise at this point and no one's gonna bite. MSFT/SoftBank already writing off losses and planning on how to cannibalize their hardware
MSFT has been up, laid off thousands to bounce stock price... way of business...get ready for more people on the unemployment line, its coming
If data center buildout truly slows down how is that not wildly bullish for MSFT, won’t their cash flow flip massively positive? Same for GOOG no?
I bought 1 MSFT monthly call :)
Everyone needs to calm down and rotate into AMZN MSFT.
Sold my $MSFT puts too early but hey at least I made money today and I’m up on the year
If this is meant to be an election reaction well Google and MSFT are still up compared to election day. Google is down compared to 6 months ago but that's an earnings report story not a election reaction.
GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT are the only safe stocks for the next few months
I would buy a MSFT 530 PUT for January and it automatically V’s up. Im so stupid. Im so fucken stupid
MSFT and AMZN still green for the week
Don’t worry 60000 jobs going offline in December 😂😂 MSFT
ok but tbf it's MSFT. Too big to go bankrupt. Tell that to AI companies LMAO
Not long ago MSFT was down 35% because "it was all over" for them. Now it's back to ATH
Not long ago MSFT was down 35% because "it was all over" for them. Now it's back to ATH
Ironically, redditard echoing ignorance in the biggest echo chamber of them all. Well done. A bit of old fashioned non-AI googling could have helped you understand how properly set up data centers have provided ecosystem benefits, from energy innovation (MSFT's Scandinavia heating experiment), construction/employment, commercial tax base (data ctr alley, va), but hey...stay victimized, my friend.
Microsoft is an interesting example. It went up after the election, while everything else is going down. Reminds me of june first, when it started tanking hard, after a rally. PLTR did the same thing if memory serves. Along with many stocks for which june 1st was an inflection point. It seems like sometimes, there's this kind of big rotation going on, and some things get dumped, others are pumped, and there's no real rhyme or reason to it. As for MSFT, it looks like the whales are just following their spreadsheets, and the spreadsheets aren't fully sure if MSFT is a dinosaur legacy software company, an overleveraged AI company, or something else entirely.
Mag7 soon to be Mag5: GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META. The AI capex crash is actually playing in GOOG favor by murdering Open AI and Anthropic IPOs. Less cash for scaling and horrible macros, while Alphabet has many cash cows. Neoclouds FUBAR. Semis at the end of a high cycle. Looking forward to buy penny stock shit tickers in the 5-10$ range.
I love it man. the opportunities are out there. WMT was just $103 and there was absolutely no reason why. COST was just $880 too. companies like GOOG and MSFT will survive and thrive with or without AI. our job is to identify opportunities and roll with it.
It just keeps getting more depressing.. >Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab tightens oversight of some data center projects from neocloud providers Nebius, IREN and Nscale, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Whats the move? Short Nebius?
The thing is $AAPL and $MSFT still got some dumpin to do, so rotation-recovery will be spread eagled out over a lot of fortune 5 hundi's and many others
Most of it's collateralized by their hardware, which is why MSFT/SoftBank were game, but with compute rental prices continuously dropping over the past few months that deal's going sour real fast.
MSFT signaling they are re-evaluating their relationships with neoclouds. MSFT makes up 62% of CRWV's total revenue and 42% of NScale's revenue, as well as >30% of IREN and NBIS's revenue. All of these companies are instantly insolvent without MSFT backing.
Eyyy! I sold 1/3 of my position @ $1,200 (JUN earnings) and another 1/3 @ $\~1,100 the day after SEP earnings. I also trimmed down all my individual tech positions the day after SEP MU earnings. I also went short QQQ in OCT, but stopped out yesterday (\~+90%), but left a lot of meat on the bone today 😭. Some WSB addict probably made like 20% on those contracts overnight lol I’ve only been buying DCAing into GOOGL AMZN MSFT & META. I think we are getting close to extreme fear and volatility where semis/memory might be worth a try to either start DCAing or flip for a trade? Maybe @ VIX 30?
> These are low leveraged, well financed, reasonable P/E, battle tested companies. ... DFAQ... thats why they are all going to private credit, doing SPVs to keep shit off the books and going into negative free cash flow... I have a feeling AI is gonna be like fiber, lotta big names in AI gonna eat a dick and get gobbled up, and in ~10 years a handful of companies that were able to make it through will kill it (thinking AMZ, MSFT, META, GOOGL, and maybe Anthropic).
Depends how you look at it. If you're saying that the market is still positive for the year and could have more selling if it came to it, then I'd agree. However, to call it overbought from as a synonim to overvalued then I'd disagree. Semi stocks are already in deep bear market territory and that's even before anything around earnings is confirmed but rather this is front running on fear, many other smaller stocks have also not performed the greatest over the past 12 months. All you really have is stocks like Aaple and MSFT that now hold so much weight in the S&P sitting at historically high prices so the broader market looks expensive.
man, MSFT, META and GOOGL might as well announce they will reduce capex spending. what difference would that make.
Yyp: GOOG, SPCX, MSFT, AMZN
And AAPL and MSFT has not joined the party yet. Bottom is not yet in.
Just to add - this report doesn't cover the rumors suggesting that IREN might be late on delivering phases of the Horizon datacenters to MSFT. We will find out later today when IREN announces earnings if that is the case, because a delay would be very impactful to their projected revenue next year.
i should have full ported to MSFT when it was 400
MSFT is well positioned - OpenAI isn't.
$MSFT about to get cowabunga'd back to the 400's
Haha I mean 0DTE-1DTE calls mostly - Most recently the MSFT call on my watchlist (added Tuesday, rallied Wednesday- Could’ve turned $10 into $1400) Other than that the tickers where I paper-handed and missed out on 100x+ moves were mostly META, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, and a few others as well.
GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, and META holding even as indexes start sliding again
Yesterday was a temporary reprieve brought on by exuberance: the end of electoral uncertainty. Today it's back to the tech bubble collapsing, which has been happening for months. The tech bubble collapse is accelerating. The NASDAQ 100 is now in correction territory, off 10% from its all time highs. South Korea's KOSPI had to halt trading again last night. Today has been been the worst day for chip stocks in more than six years (March 2020). Nvidia (NVDA)'s one-year return is negative 4.17. Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL) still have more than 3 Trillion dollars in off-balance sheet spending commitments. Sentiment has shifted: the VIX is up more than 30% today alone. Fear is back in the marketplace.
Nadella looks smart for slowing MSFT's capex acceleration significantly and keeping cash flow strongly positive. Cook looks like a genius for not getting involved in the AI race at this point. Right now it's hard to see the benefit for anybody that's all in on AI capex.
Anything other than APPL, MSFT or MSTR
For some companies, yeah. For others (and the majority of my holdings) I'm still very much up. AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, ONDS, etc