Reddit Posts
How do you think about holding concentrated positions after big gains?
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT hits positive net gamma exposure right now
I’m rotating around 80% of my MSFT position into META. Here’s my reasoning.
Ban bet Nintendo stock to $16 by EOY and if it hits $16 I’ll donate some switch 2s to children Hospitals
Where would you put surprise inheritance money
Big Tech's Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are distorting the corporate earnings picture
four green days, one red, and the red one is the only one i learned anything from
Mentions
MM really love MSFT and hate everything else
wild to think just 3 months ago MSFT was the most hated stonk in here getting drug every day in chat.
My price target on MSFT is $0. Make it so
Took my META and MSFT gains. Done for the day.
In hindsight literally impossible for MSFT to go down meaningfully. They have enterprise by the balls
MSFT. It pumps nonstop and won't give up
The crowding into the mag boys is so funny. MSFT at least makes sense. But AAPL, META? What a joke.
MSFT just don’t give a fuck! LMAO all the memory tards hating on MSFT now lost all their money.
Last time, when someone said MSFT would hit $600 in the near future, many people laughed. Now it’s looking like that prediction is about to come true, sooner than expected!
MSFT https://preview.redd.it/3so2pu7tn8vh1.jpeg?width=1193&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc48e923ac08b24009b8504b0bb0e36c63a04311
Looks like MSFT is about to break its all-time high today. Life changes so fast!
MSFT unstoppable retard strength
Who else swapped MSFT for nbis and memory please can’t be the only regard
MSFT from 350 to 550 in 3.5 months
MSFT to the moon because I have puts
The more everything goes down, the stronger MSFT becomes. Unreal
Thinking about buying ANOTHER MSFT put to average down. It has to go down EVENTUALLY, RIGHT???
It’s already started. Big companies like Meta, MSFT asked their employees to use their llm instead of Claude. https://www.techradar.com/pro/meta-and-microsoft-want-to-stop-their-employees-using-claude I believe that every big player will start to ask their employees on using their own models instead of the moat. We all know that their product is good, but it does mean that the company is profitable.
They just doing this to retail all over again. Last earnings it was all "Capex to high" but after AMZN and MSFT reported, everything ripped face :money:
MSFT, META. I’m not asking for much. Pump 10% at open ok?
Every stock will go to 0 except MSFT which will go to 550 specifically to fuck my puts and when I get tired of watching my account evaporate every day and finally sell for a huge loss on my puts, MSFT, will go to 0 in 1 session
MSFT bonds are safer than USTs right now.. not seeing that change any time soon.
MSFT hitting ath. I remember when the retards we’re saying that MSFT was a dead boomer stock. LMAO
What the fuckkkk. MSFT puts are killing me.
MSFT wants 10t market cap by eow
Can MSFT correct too? Like wif. Everything dumps and this piece of shit gets held up by a mystical eldritch force every day
I bought puts on the only things that only go up every day. The Dow Jones and MSFT. Ass quite sore and bloody
For some companies earlier. Look at Maia 300 announcement. Microsoft plans spending most of capex on their own chips for inference So now the loop is following: MSFT has products which are channel for monetization (windows, ai laptops, office365, LinkedIn, azure tools, nav etc.) they use their own chips, they use own/open models or licensed openai models - they don't need to buy GPUs. They don't need to do anything. This rally could end for amd and Nvidia sooner than hyperscalers cut costs, money will flow elsewhere if ASIC are better than vera rubin economics. I think investors are greedy and won't escape pick and shovel trade. Many ai skeptics don't believe ai will be a success. They just wanted to grab easy money seeing billions are spent. But in a decade winners will be hyperscalers (huge existing moat and fcf + ai as side business) + energy suppliers as it's crucial and China is so ahead. Any dip in companies like vst or ceg will print life changing returns in 20 years horizon
MSFT LEAPs doing pretty good, up 50% in half a year or so. Now watch me hold them till expiry in 2027 and lose a chunk of that.
IREN management is incompetent and shady, they can't be trusted. You have to read the footnotes on everything they release to realize they are bullshitting. Any deal with hyperscalers is basically a low margin bare metal GPU deal. The real margins are deals with enterprises. While compute is still in short supply, selling compute to hyperscalers is shooting yourself in the foot in the long run - unless those deals are needed to raise cheap capital. Anthrophic and Openai are on shaky ground financially so there is additional risk in deals involving them. Deals with actual money printers like GOOGL MSFT META AMZN would mean a lot more. If you look at NBIS, their hyperscaler deals are with META and MSFT, which was done to raise cheap capital. Since those deals, they haven't sold any more compute to hyperscalers (and this seems intentional according to NBIS management's comments).
Nothing is missing, IREN can have a deal with MSFT GOOG AAPL all at once and it may likely stay stagnant due to macros just cooking it til it's burnt. We need oil and bonds to go down before any relief is seen
META and MSFT (the most hated stocks couple months ago) were the Kings all along, how the tables turn…
Love me some MSFT but short term ATM monthly P’s prolly an easy 10%.
Meanwhile MSFT has blessed me with nothing but gains for a couple months
From only 20 years ago, only MSFT still on top The top 10 by market cap in 2000 were: Microsoft (Technology) - $586B General Electric (Diversified) - $477B Cisco (Technology) - $366B Walmart (Retail) - $260B Exxon Mobil (Oil & Gas) - $260B Intel (Technology) - $251B NTT Docomo (Telecommunications) - $246B Royal Dutch Shell (Oil & Gas) - $203B Pfizer (Pharmaceuticals) - $202B Nokia (Technology) - $186B
Pardon? The XLK(information technology) and XLE(energy) are the only sectors up since mid August. ...and if tech is leading the decline, how come the Qs are up 21.43% while industrials are up only 7.8% YTD? Heck, even the silly top heavy SPY with 4 stocks carrying the entire thing is still up 14.06% YTD on the back of NVIDIA, MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN ...iow, the AI stocks. Tech has been the only thing holding the market up for months...precisely like 2000.
Semis bottomed out. Qs looked atrocious and were held afloat by Meta and MSFT and a couple software plays. And the excuse of oil doesn't really hold when it's barely reversed some of the last two weeks of losses. Bonds also pushed up. Weekly RSI on the Qs is absolutely dead. Basically, tomorrow we either rip back and retest like at least $750-$754 on the Qs or we see how far down this elevator plunges. Banks are massively oversold on the short-term timeframe though, so there's a nice catalyst there if earnings are just good enough.
Tomorrow AMZN en GOOGL calls. MSFT and META puts
I liquidated 85% of my Roth IRA in February and put it all in MSFT due to something Charlie Munger said once and it worked.
MSFT. Please get back to flat.
Ok so now MSFT wants to hold gains and go straight up. OK. COOL.
Still big in semis, I don't think this dies too soon. Buy into FUD sell into FOMO. Biggest positions right now MSFT KLAC LRCX ASML, sizeable positions in GLW WDC NVDA MU and a few others.
Lots of NTM 32dte MSFT calls hitting the tape today. Hmmm....
my best buys YTD: MU ASML TSM MSFT. counting only positions at like >= $50K.
MSFT CEO joins other bitch ass companies calling for AI regulation because it's only a problem when their proprietary data gets scrubbed.
My boy Zuck and What's his face at MSFT are carrying my ass today.
I lost like 50k across a series of shitty trades in a week like 6 years ago. Still pains me today. To make matters worse, I sold stock positions in NVDA, MSFT and TSLA to fund them.
META/RDDT are not tech companies, they’re advertising companies. They just incorporate technology very well. People calling companies TECH in 2026 is just silly. MSFT is a B2B services company that uses software to provide its services. What I invest in is innovate companies that are adapting and succeeding quickly.
MSFT gaping bears today (Am MSFT ber, have bloody anoos)
oooo MSFT puts printing ?
i just entered MSFT 0dte puts AMA
Reallllyy need MSFT to dump this week. And by dump like 1% will do. Please and thank you.
H-1B ban is why MSFT is dumping
Buy calls on MSFT and the Chinese chipmaker causing the dump? Nahhhhh
MSFT bers not having a good day
That MSFT CEO calling for AI regulations because people are vibe coding his products just cracks me up. So AI can literally data scrape everything on the internet, violate hundreds of millions of copyrights and that's all gravy. But the second someone uses AI to steal their information, then all of the sudden it's not okay. It'd be funny if it wasn't costing me money today.
wau msft pumping on new AI chips. MSFT is the semi now
Oh oh. DOJ is gonna have to open another investigation into MSFT for not using the state sponsored chips.
is MSFT doing a fake pump premarket then
GOOG and MSFT will be the ultimate winners when they buy up the AI firms at a discount after those go bankrupt in a year.
Talking about things like MSFT and META. they never hold so why would people buy at the highs? They're gonna lose money
I can see the immigration restrictions creating hiring friction, especially for specialized engineering roles but I'd be cautious about assuming a major earnings impact immediately. Azure growth, enterprise demand and margins are still the bigger valuation drivers. I use Moon for shorter term market speculation but a headline reaction wouldn't be enough for me to change a long term MSFT thesis.
Of course the one think I have puts on (MSFT) is the only green on the board. Game is rigged specifically against me
Just accumulate as much of alphabet now, when everyone hates it. They are sitting on a cash pile triple the size of MSFT and double the size of AMZN. With 80% cloud growth. Organic SEO drying out, which accelerate’s paying for clicks.
MSFT was 350 at some point this year and it's now 535 lol
Looks like market can only focus on one hyperscaler everytime is going to pump, last week was $MSFT
Wow, 30 % on deep‑ITM LEAPS is pretty solid for 2027/28 play. The high delta (\~0.95+) means the contracts move about point‑for‑point with MSFT, so you basically own a leveraged 100‑share position at a fraction of the capital. Just keep an eye on the theta once you’re a couple of years away from expiry—drop‑off is real as you get closer, but the long horizon gives plenty of recovery room.
MSFT and MSTR bers are sweating
3 hrs ago BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT , CEO calls for an ‘emergency brake’ on AI.
Odds MSFT has a red day ever again?
GOOGL, MSFT, META and AMZN are trading at discounted valuations vs the past because the market is punishing the Capex spending.
The percent of earnings is less important for valuation than the expectation on earnings growth from AI which are high for all of them. Most of recent MSFT & AMZN and much of GOOGL cloud growth is from AI demand. They're spending capex because their cloud customers want huge banks of GPUs. When that demand stops both their earnings growth and capex spend goes down.
What percentage of earnings from Apple, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL and META are dependant on AI? Most of these companies are the ones being punished in the AI environment because they are the ones spending the Capex. While MU, AVGO and NVDA are the ones benefitting from this spending.
The valuations of many big companies in SP500 really are dependent on AI spending. This is just like the dot com 1.0 era. • NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) – ~8.36% – 8.59% weight • Apple Inc. (AAPL) – ~7.35% – 6.87% weight • Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) – ~5.76% – 4.71% weight • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) – ~3.70% – 4.13% weight • Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) – ~3.05% – 3.67% weight • Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) – ~2.53% – 3.09% weight • Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) – ~2.45% – 2.92% weight • Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) – ~2.42% – 2.11% weight • Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) – ~1.82% – 1.42% weight • Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) – ~1.51% – 1.96% weight That's 40% of the SP500 valuation. And every one of them is tied to AI (Apple the least). Nvidia, Google, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta and Micron are welded to AI's future. Tesla valuation trades only on the prospect of AI Robotaxis and droids. People underestimate how much SP500 and total US market cap index is literally an AI trade bet.
lol remember the people in here who legitimately thought MSFT was joever?
MSFT this week. Going down right?
Roll the short calls of MSFT diagonals, mb DCA some things that are down.
These have high open interest, I think above 100 for each contract. Also, for a ticker like MSFT, I don't think low volume is ever an issue. Worst case, the market maker has to cover it at the bid value, so there is never a case of not being able to close the contract.
That was the thesis last year which is why SaaS companies faceplanted so hard (eg: MSFT). In practice we are not seeing that actually occur in most cases tho, so ups they go again. There's a large portion of the population who are not well versed in software / ai, and don't want to be. Those are the primary customers. Even if AI can do it all... they still don't want to use AI to deal with that shit. They'd rather just have someone else do it all together and not think about anything.
Seriously, 34% in a year on deep ITM MSFT LEAPS is nothing to downplay
Yes, these are all open positions. I initially had 6 total MSFT calls, closed the first three earlier (took a small loss on the first, small profits on the next two). Planning to hold these remaining three for a while: I'll likely trim the 390 call when MSFT hits 550, and plan to hold the $200 and $215 LEAPS for another year
The market turned in 2022. TSLA out performed the rest of MAG7 META went from 333 to 113 MSFT went from 343 to 221 NVDA went from 27 to 11 TSLA went from 400 to 300 WITH the CEO cashing out billions in stock BUT THEN he kept dumping billions and billions (to by xitter) and it dumped to 105 by Jan 2023. He said he was done dumping and it double in a 4-6 weeks. so... TSLA moves more on CEO whackiness and not broader trends
Definitely don’t succeed as a day trader, maybe a swing trader…but I still have $MSFT stock from 2008 if that helps the answer ;)
OMG, NVDA is up 440% since your comment. It up 21% over the last 12 months. It was at ATH. As I said in a reply, I converted MSFT to NVDA. I've also invested a ton more into NVDA since this post. You gotta see what's happening when you invest long term. I knew AI was the next big thing, and I was right.
Maybe because it's a decent answer to folks asking for investment advice but not providing their full financial, economic, and demographic backgrounds nor their personal investment goals, retirement timeline, or true (or any at all) level of risk tolerance? Plus the folks giving alternate answers would get down voted, pushed back, and/or just ignored. Like if I noted what's worked for me. I might not apply to another person because they might nor run+own a business already uses physical platinum/palladium/rhodium so me telling folks to buy those things in physical to offset inflation rather than holding a gold allocation via etf might not apply. I might be able to tolerate buying leveraged ETFs, buying the dip in MSFT/BLK this year, and borrowing money to invest but that doesn't mean someone with an unstable job, is 55+ yrs old, health issues, a gambling problem, a different tax situation, is a single parent of 3 kids, or a hundred other things might not want to do what I do. If folks want a personalized/bespoke investment+retirement plan then they should go find a fiduciary/FA who will look into their situation before tailoring that custom advice/plan.
I think MSFT will be surprisingly big for cybersecurity and AMZN for cloud and robotics.
Are they? Goog/MSFT/AMZN are all FCF neutral or negative. SpaceX and Tesla, lolol. AAPL revenue is only up like 20% in the last 4 years. AVGO and AMD are more based on future earnings. Only NVDA and MU have materially changed the past 4 years
The problem is that "the earnings" are massively concentrated in four companies. MSFT, NVDA, META, and AAPL. Those four companies accounted for 300 pts of SPY gain last quarter, while the other 496 companies combined for -150pts. Because of the weighting of the index, 41% of new inflows go to the top 10(2%) companies. Nvidia in particular is so concentrated by the weighting mechanism that it alone gets new investment flow equal to the bottom 256(51.2%) of companies...combined. The result is two different S & P 500s in one. Since September 14, the cap weighted S & P 500 is up 2.32%, while the Equal Weighted S & P 500(RSP) is actually -.95% during that time. What you're looking at is a bear market in the broader market being hidden by weighting mechanisms. The top few companies feast, while all the other companies are starved and most are already in a correction...or even bear markets. When the few tech leaders turn down, the index will drop like a stone.
MSFT going backwards next week
I think they will crash and MSFT will buy them for a song. Then, they’re back!
MSFT is already back at ATH by the time you read this.
Since you have the in. You’ve got to talk some actually numbers. What is this massive pay cut. And what was the actual stock grant for both companies. Want to hear it from industry insider. How much more could you have made working at MSFT vs spcx. We’ve only heard story from welder and cafeteria person from Spcx becoming millionaire. Want to hear the other side how much money had the engineers lost working at SPCX. If you knew the 2019 comp structure. It’s easy to work the math. I don’t know aside from online research. You work the industry you must have real numbers to throw around.
Stingy now? Or stingy in 2016? And how stingy? You have no detail other than my buddy said he is rich. Let assume the year 1 grants is around 50k. That would put the value of year 1 equity for MSFT at 465k today. 7.3mill if it was SpaceX MSFT was an incredibly safe bet 10 years ago and it still is. Spcx wasn’t. Regardless of what the grant was Msft had a 10x increase this decade. SPCX now that is public had a 147x You buddy is definitely not richer than day 1 spaceX engineers. Maybe if he climb up the rank and is now an executive.
There is level to wealth lol. Engineer that join say MSFT a decade ago isn’t on the same wealth level a say a day 1 employee of space X Even with wage increase and stock $ increase One ends up decently rich. The other ends up with generational wealth That’s the appeal of working a startup. Most startups however failed. None of Elon’s has, in fact quite the opposite.