Reddit Posts
DeepSeek just open-sourced its production inference engine (running on Huawei & Nvidia) the exact same day DHS banned it across all US federal supply chains.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History. Don't Be the Sucker Left Holding Silicon Valley's Bags
Forget the distractions, the AI trade hinges on Metas earnings report this week
We have now entered the next phase of the AI super cycle and here are the likely winners and losers
MSFT options collar: Avoiding constructive sale designation and understanding if strategy is sound.
If you had $100k to put into just one stock, what would you pick?
How do you think about holding concentrated positions after big gains?
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT hits positive net gamma exposure right now
I’m rotating around 80% of my MSFT position into META. Here’s my reasoning.
Ban bet Nintendo stock to $16 by EOY and if it hits $16 I’ll donate some switch 2s to children Hospitals
Mentions
People are not used to such kind of radical transformations and rapid movement of capital. Which is why they think every such innovation is a bubble. But things move a lot faster these days. It's a race. MSFT, GOOG, AMZN etc. are not morons despite what the average Dunning-Kruger bear thinks. They know its a race. Which is why they are spending so much. That being said, some companies will fail. And when they do, they tank the market. So you have to pick the winners and still be prepared for 20-30% drawdowns. In fact, such corrections are healthy.
you do realize META/GOOG/MSFT/AMZN and IREN/NBIS/APLD/CRWV financials and business models have nothing in common, right ? First can cut capex and swim in FCF next quarters covering their debt interests then some, second can't cut capex or they debt fueled house of cards crumble
Maybe MSFT saves the market for another quarter
I love how Apple is the AI "safety" play when it's P/E ratio is floating around 40 while MSFT near 30, AMZN is at 21, and GOOG is sub 17. Like yes I know AI build out is scary and could go bad, but even if all of it went tits up, these companies are all still cash generating monsters.
"TPUs are quite unique on one hand" Is it? All bigtech has their own versions (under a different name, since TPU is copyrighted) of it: \- Amazon: Trainium \- MSFT: Maia \- Meta: Mtia \- AMD: Instinct \- etc. Google was the first who made it and they have the highest saturation. They certainly have an advantage for now, but that will go away as the competition picks up production. Back then they simply didn't need such a chip.
META and Google dont have the cash to finance it. META is creating a new class of share to dilute shareholders, it had negative free cash flow and uses a myriad of techniques to avoid reporting the true scale of its debt and liabilities. Both Google and MSFT look like theyre about to do the same thing. What META has is an army of bagholders, analysts and LLMs to tell you everything is fine, that are happy to pay for Zuck's build out. Neoclouds are absolutely more risky than that but that doesnt make META a buy, or makes AI capex less risky
Finally a good discussion thread on WSB, I thought everyone was a regard. A lot of the things you say are true, but they are only largely true for AI labs, not for hyperscalers. Meta, MSFT, GOOG, they dont just make money from the direct bill an enterprise or customer pays to use a certain AI model on their servers, there is also ancililary revenue and improved returns per customer on the other services as well because of AI, like for Meta you have better retenetion from customers on instagram, better targeted ads, or more likely to use facebook more, or use some of their AI enabled hardware when they launch in the future. Or for MSFT you are more likely to use Co-pilot in their enterpeise software now which improves the product revenue, not to mention the overall productivity impact on the entire global economy and companies that is reflected in the stock market more broadly. Also your numbers are overstated. Goldman estimates about $1.8tn only cumulative spend by end of 2026, and about $7tn by end of 2030. You also assume that the entire buildout is paid upfront, these companies are already making significant revenue growth this year from the buildouts that were in place last year and part of this year, so they can see the marginal ROI already paying off, which is why they are continuing to spend.
I own it too. 1/2 the size. Concerned everything is priced in. The MSFT deal, the 2 new data centers in spain and Australia for 2029. Need earnings catalyst and the market to turn green after FOMC. Have no choice but to stay patient. If $24 floor doesn’t hold… i hate averaging down losers.
Just one QQQ put exp next Friday strike 690. One more leg down until Google, MSFT and AMZN earnings that could address wall street's concerns on AI valuation
MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL are in a race to the death to have the god AI. Whoever gets it wins everything. They’ve moved the R&D off their balance sheets and are propping up the frontier labs while also owning all of the compute those labs need to develop the god AI. Those four companies are arguably the four greatest companies of all time, they collect more rent than anyone else across all domains of business. If you even know how to say hello world in Python you know how powerful these tools are. If you think there will be less computers in the world in a year or three years or five years then short the market. I just am seeing a world where literally everything is computer. Everything we do is code already and AI creates code faster and increasingly better than any human. I don’t think the market crashes if the big four decide to stop spending on semis I think there’s a 10% contraction but those companies are still making insane quarterly revenues and growing.
It’s earnings time. All semi & big tech give big earnings. Last $MU earnings reported $52 Billion One $NVDA GPU need 8 HBM from $MU Why people use Neo Cloud? Because big cloud players $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG their capacity is full AI technology is not Neo cloud, AI not go away $SPY $QQQ
I want to short MSFT so bad just waiting a little more lol
Yup. I think so. Next week could be stressful because of the upcoming earnings and these are a lot! MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SNDK, SKHY, STX, INTC…
$MSFT might survive... Not dependent as much on consumers when that headwind hits.
Next Week MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN will publish their Earnings. The Capexes are important to see if they invest in Datacenters. If they do, there is a demand for the MU Ram. Next Week is highly important. Besides the Mag 7, there are other Earnings from SNDK, INTC, SKHY, STX and RMBS.
Bought GOOG and MSFT and they instantly dropped. Lol
Microsoft was my only position, i bought at $380 this year with all my money, now 50% MSFT and 50% AVGO I'm tired of everything
Will MSFT earnings pump my dear lost baby NOKIA?
real dump on MSFT por favor grassy ass
This aint a dump btw. It happened last earning. MSFT accountants appeared like the Knights of Rohan to slaughter the poor, impoverished bers
Might be a tad early but hopefully this will work. Trimming MSFT after the run up I get
I sold 50% of my MSFT today and i bought 50% of AVGO My losing is rate is 99%
The importance of date of death is that it would be your step up cost basis. Looking back at MSFT, it traded around $400 in August 2024. Today MSFT is trading around $525/share. For simplicity let's say those values are fixed at $400 (well in reality whatever this number is will be fixed) and $525. If you decided to sell, you would receive $525 times number of shares sold and assuming taxes are not immediately withheld. Then for the your tax return for the year, you'd have to pay your capital gains rate of $125 times number of shares sold. If you believe MSFT will continue to grow into the future, you might want to consider holding it. It has also been increasing distributions consistently. The benefit here is MSFT has been outperforming SP500 long term and you don't have the tax liability now. But if you're more of an index and ETF investor who doesn't want single stock exposure, probably best to sell it and stick to your plan.
The comment section being bullish on MSFT means your play will probably print. Keep yoloing on margin. https://preview.redd.it/mivdra5181xh1.jpeg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c500830b9becdda617bbbfe49c5ef27d90817103
Not stoned yet...still a tad early in the day. The debt doesn't matter when you can service it, and when your financial backers are the likes of NVDA, AMZN, MSFT....Think of it like a car loan when you are 16 years old....you can barely afford it, but your parents (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN etc,) will foot the bill, if you can't pay the bill. They have even gone so far as to say "hey, if you can't sell all the power, we will buy it!" the debt is secured, and doesn't matter in the sense that your thinking. You think that the debt is going to wipe out these companies. That can't be further from the truth. You NEED debt to grow a business in most cases. No business owner in their right mind, would take out so much debt, that it would bankrupt the company. It might happen to a few companies, but not every single one of them. The data center companies who already have facilities, with power running to them, are going to command premium pricing, when everybody figures out there is not enough power to run all these chips.
People said the same about MSFT and then it popped
Why MSFT is not bleeding
MSFT: i am better than all of you
I actually think he did well buying the MSFT FUD earlier this year and now he is overconfident
How is MSFT so strong?
Might go MSFT puts if these capex fears spread
You know we’re fucked if MSFT is green.
Yes and no. This is quite common for tech companies. The larger Mag 7 companies actually pay out more in stock-based compensation than Tesla. However, for the Mag 7 peers: - Stock-based compensation makes up a much smaller proportion of their net incomes because they are highly profitable - The non-operating income sources (such as mark-to-market investment gains) make up much more significant distortions, especially in recent quarters, to the point that I think non-GAAP earnings is a better metric here - All of them except for AMZN and TSLA are pretty good about aggressively repurchasing shares that go towards SBC anyway. AMZN occasionally has done so in prior quarters (most recently 2022). Tesla has never done so. Here are the the most recent data I have, which is actually a bit lagged (earnings period ending June 30 for all except NVDA, which ended in July). My source didn't have non-GAAP NI for NVDA or META populated yet. | Company | GAAP NI | Non-GAAP NI | Non-Op Inc | SBC | Share Repurchases | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | NVDA | $59.69B | ? | $8.00B | $2.03B | $22.13B | | AAPL | $29.79B | $28.11B | $0.527B | $3.40B | $28.32B | | GOOGL | $112.19B | $35.01B | $99.62B | $7.96B | $6.57B | | MSFT | $35.77B | $35.29B | $4.29B | $3.12B | $4.58B | | AMZN | $62.65B | $21.53B | $54.61B | $6.04B | $0B | | META | $15.85B | ? | $0.764B | $7.66B | $4.28B | | TSLA | $1.11B | $1.16B | $1.01B | $1.15B | $0B |
More like, look at the other earnings today for both Mag7’s. Neither of them had big beats. The entire market is now walking the tightrope in anticipation for next week’s remaining Mag7s earnings. Make or break as the S&P is dangling holding onto the latest ATH range. It’s looking very weak unless Google, MSFT or AMZN can have a big beat.
Lmao not the Microsoft paint picture!! I might buy MSFT leaps now
My heart is weak lol Followed a whale's $63M MSFT calls position earlier this year on the dip. I was down 50% at one point, whale was down 70% on those. I paperhanded mine day it hit green. They 10x'ed 10 days before their expiry. I'm just not meant for trading.
anyone in MSFT calls?
Should be puts on MSFT all day, their new ARM laptops are ass
Should be puts on MSFT all day, their new ARM laptops are ass
I wrote a more detailed post below. For most companies like GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, etc., non-GAAP is much better. It eliminates the distortions and the stock-based compensation is a rounding error that you won't notice. For TSLA, this is not a rounding error. In fact, sometimes it makes up almost all of their net income.
3 more datacenters will be delivered to MSFT by 2027 Q1, besides Anthropic customer leak, there was also a bloomberg analysis leak that stated t hey still have META and ORCL lined up. They also own the land, software, and hardware unlike strawman CRWV
You want tickers. GOOG buy around $310-320 AVGO $320 or below, might even go lower. NBIS start buying around $140. AMZN would wait for $235-240. AMD between $460-500 range. META, MSFT, TSLA, PLTR not very high upside at this prices either.
I sold MSFT in 1996 after losing money.
when’s your expiration? I also bought MSFT and PLTR leaps, that both turned out very profitable. im on the lookout for more like these. the smart thing was I also dumped my DRAM leaps which have since lost a lot more value.
MSFT depends on all these semis, as does all tech. do you seriously envision a world with less tech going forward? just yesterday i gave Claude a PITA task that would have taken a team of 2 or 3 people at least a full day of work. Claude did it in 5 min.
semis dip is a golden opportunity. it's like MSFT back in july.
You have 10 days for MSFT to drop 7% going into earnings. Total gambling. Dumb as rocks.
I've been buying only MSFT, watching porn all day and crying at night but i'm green for the first time since 1978
Dude with 10k in OTM MSFT puts had about 3 mins to turn a profit this morning LMAO you bers are something else
Rare sentences: “Should’ve held my MSFT calls, it was the move 😩😳”
GOOG becomes the next MSFT in terms of price movement, calls it is
He’s a vulture. Sometimes he hits it out the park with BK, CMG, MSFT. But he mostly loses and cuts his losses.
Google took up MSFT's mantle of inverse SPY, huh? Sure, why not, theyre just at the core of the entire AI buildout and own large shares of SPCX which are inexplicably up like 10% today
I have friends in MSFT and their consensus is this goes ATH 580 post earnings. Your puts are cooked
The random MSFT stop loss hunting drops need to be studied
Long MSFT, my financial models run on excel.
I think this earnings cycle will buck the trend We got meta today, GOOG MSFT end of month , NVDA next month All of them are gonna show Sustained Revenue growth on AI that I think will change the way market prices things. This quarter the intelligence of AI went vertical. Agentic AI is commonplace and is using so much compute, and has loads of demand from corporates.
He’s gonna breakeven at best, MSFT already retraced half the move
Saw someone full port MSFT puts, so im gonna spend all day consulting the dark arts to spite that one guy specifically, and for no real reason
MMs and hedge funds are clearly trying to prevent either of them rising- they're gonna sell or short again as soon as market opens and then it will be a fight for them to go green. Particularly for NBIS. Very similar to what they did to MSFT for the first six months of this year.
He bought MSFT on the dip. Just like Target, Netflix can turn around once sentiment shifts from bearish to bullish. Up to their new leadership. Do not bore viewers and do not make the experience worse.
Yeah waiting for Anthropic to 1.000x their 2T market cap, totally the same as MSFT/AAPL/GOOGL lol
NFLX is not MSFT, but yeah no one wants to buy in a seriously declining stock…
I would substitute NFLX for any other blue chip stock tbh… AAPL MSFT AMZN all are better options than NFLX to me. They have media and are relatively AI-proof and recession-proof.
they said the same thing about MSFT a year ago
Apple, MSFT, Google, etc will buy the remains for fractional Pennies on the dollar
People are going to be like, how were we supposed to know that the technology that magically solved coding and can basically do anything in software was going to be big. The same fucking people who didn’t invest in MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, etc like how were they supposed to know computers and the internet was going to be big, they didn’t have a crystal ball or apparently >100 IQ.
$MSFT/$AMZN/$META report blowout capex numbers that go to semis. Semis like "eh". $SPCX reports made up revenue numbers in the trilly range. Semis pump like FUCK YEAH. If this pump seriously hold up tomorrow just throw in the towel on rationalizing anything in this retard market.
And than he'd have to hold MSFT shares for like 6-12 months at worst before he could sell Covered Calls above his cost average would be the most likely result on that honestly.
Yeah they said exactly the same thing when I bought the bottom on MSFT.
Hard to say, but it's wild how much can be done with it if it gets used to its full capacity. It's also built into the entire Microsoft suite of apps, which the business world is going to keep using, as it has for the last 30 years. For that reason, I'm particularly bullish on MSFT. I work in engineering consulting and I would say if everyone spent the time to learn to use copilot well, I imagine our efficiency would improve by 30-50% as a firm. That's a lot. No other change could make that kind of improvement to the bottom line.
MSFT giving me a major ber chub right now
SPCX up 0% to date. MSFT up 36% since SPCX IPO.
No, I do not think this will print. Tech earnings have not been disappointing so far. Yes, valuations are stretched and a beat doesn’t move stock much. My best guess is MSFT will decline 2.3% after a decent earnings and you’ll lose.
MSFT making me macrohard right now
I may have bought a few. One was on MSFT tho so its looking sexy
What kind of a correction or downturn should we expect or plan for in tech? Supposedly when/if this ai bubbie pops, what kind of pullback are analysts thinking of for various tech subcategories? 1) MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, 20-percent? 2) memory like MU, 30-, 40-percent? 3) ETFs SMH. VGT?
Why would MSFT go down? It's one of the few I'm bullish on. It barely corrected while everything else ripped to ATHs. For example Google up is 30% on the 1 yr, AMZN is up 20%. MSFT is... flat. And you think it's going to go... down? Why?
|**Company**|**Market Cap**|**Quarterly Revenue**|**Quarterly Net Income**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**Apple (AAPL)**|\~$5.00T|\~$100 Billion|\~$23 Billion| |**Alphabet (GOOGL)**|\~$4.16T|\~$90 Billion|\~$25 Billion| |**Microsoft (MSFT)**|\~$3.96T|\~$67 Billion|\~$22 Billion| |**Amazon (AMZN)**|\~$2.83T|\~$162 Billion|\~$15 Billion| |**SpaceX (SPCX)**|**\~$1.94T**|**$14.58 Billion**|**$4.40 Billion**|
\^ I second this opinion. MSFT is a great company and will do well in years to come. In 10 days, it can go either way. I personally won't bet against great companies. If you had the money, the best trade IMO would have been selling covered calls and collecting the juicy premiums.
MSFT earnings call next week. 100% mooning. Their usagebased-priced AI went live last Q which rakes in tons more cash than their fixed-priced AI. If they still somehow manage to disappoint then I'm riding a world ETF for the rest of my life.
GOOGLE will have a run like MSFT and everyone will be \*shocked\* just don't know wen
Wow MSFT is just dog shit huh. QQQ and everything else shooting straight up while MSFT waffles around.
fake clifford on MSFT to hunt stop losses
MSFT is 3.7 pwrcwnt off ATH. Evwn if you bought the exact high you would ve nowhere nesr a "bagholder. If MSFT went to 200s then sure.
How is searching in Windows explorer still so abysmal - Puts on MSFT forever
First, I have no idea when the bear markets hit. I think it's now but could be dead wrong. MSFT, AMZN charts look pretty good, if you believe in the companies stick with it. T looks like it's going nowhere.
So my long dated calls JAN 2028 on MSFT AMZN T and a few others - time to sell to close?
If you’re long-term investing just choose a reputable broker instead of some shady offshore BS, Fidelity is fine. You only start needing more expansive/comprehensive broker platforms for more complicated forms of trading like scalping. Basically any S&P 500, NASDAQ, or broad market ETFs are good. Always have most of your portfolio in these types of vehicles; these are the retirement prep. If you wanna find the next NVDA use a small portion and be prepared to be wrong. Finding the next “big one” is called speculating. That’s a fancy word for guessing with your gut, which is unreliable. Dont try to pick single stocks, don’t try to time anything; just invest small amounts consistently (maybe with a small lump sum to get you started, ensuring you keep at ***least*** 6 months of emergency funds in that HYSA). In terms of saving for retirement, boring is better. Let compounding do the work for you. In the event of a big pullback during a recession or depression, don’t panic and sell; look at it as an opportunity to get more shares for less money. This is why as you get closer to retirement you diversify into fixed income assets because you won’t have the time to recover from drawdowns and protection of capital becomes the focus instead of growth. If you dump $10k into VOO and we get a 50% crash in two years, don’t think “I’m down $5k” but rather “I can triple my position for the same $10k and ride the next wave up.” Imagine this; VOO is @$700, you can get \~14 shares for $10k. Next year say it crashes to $350. You can now get 28 extra shares for the same $10k, and you have 42 shares total now. If it goes back to $700 your position is now worth $29,400. This is obviously a hypothetical scenario, just giving an example. That’s why I hate bailouts; it strips young investors of the opportunity to buy valuable assets for cheap because the old fucks want daddy to save them. Crashes are good; they bring ample opportunity for younger generations with less wealth accumulated to size up and build their portfolios for the next bull runs. Here’s some interesting comparisons from the bottom of ‘09 versus current valuations of well known companies: ***Apple (AAPL): \~$2.50 -> \~$340*** ***Microsoft (MSFT): \~$11 -> \~$530*** ***Amazon (AMZN): \~$3 -> \~$262*** ***Walmart (WMT): \~$13 -> \~$119*** ***Oracle (ORCL): \~$7 -> \~$129*** These crashes suck absolute ballsack for someone 3 years from retirement who didn’t shift to capital protection like my asshole of a grandpa (he truly is an asshole); but for those young guns out there these types of opportunities don’t just provide solid returns, they provide life changing opportunities. The ‘08 crash scares the shit out of my parents and they went fixed income for the last 18 years when really they should have doubled down given they both *still* work (and will for a few more years) so they had ample time to ride out a recovery in the event of a subsequent downturn. Now they both spend every other day going over their retirement numbers, pensions, etc. because they stuck themselves with 2-3% earnings for almost two decades and grew almost nothing. I wish I had the knowledge then that I have now because they’d be rolling in dough, but alas I was a little tyke back then worried about what pizza we were having on Friday. My mom had one pension that was stuck on the market and she couldn’t change it to fixed rate; that one pension has done 150% over the last \~20 years, meanwhile their fixed rates haven’t even really touched 1/3 of that. When you see and feel financial struggle firsthand it gives you a drive to learn like you wouldn’t believe. Just keep learning and keep diving. Asking questions means you’re in the right direction. Best of luck to you.
AMD, META, MSFT. Up 93%, 16%, 43% respectively.
I think it’s a decent gamble. But it is what it is, a gamble. You could have a MSFT situation or you could just lose 11k.
This is exactly why it’s going to pop suddenly like MSFT did. Probably post- mid terms. Shares are better for the mag7 right now though. Not going to play options
you have to establish a base camp ⛺️ on your highest conviction companies/indicies based on your own thesis and DD if you buy some shit based on something some fukhead said, you will sell out of it and buy high and sell low then take 10-20% and go for beta and outsized gains the biggest determining factor in growing wealth is spending less than you bring and put those dollars to work buying assets. my base camp ⛺️ QQQ VOO SPY SCHD AMZN GOOGL MSFT thank you for coming to my TedTalk
Neoclouds like NBIS / CRWV won't exist in the next 2-3 years. Companies now running local models on Mac minis & AMZN / MSFT / META will have enough compute on their own :vanish:
Not buying Anthropic/oAI for that reason. Buy their landlords. When they fail (coming soon), AMZN/GOOG/MSFT will be the ones who get paid.
One data point from House trading disclosures rather than analysts: since late May, members’ AMZN trades have leaned toward selling. There were four sales (June 1, 5, 16 and 25) and one purchase (Rep. Kean, July 8), all in the smallest $1,001–$15,000 bracket. I wouldn’t read much into it. Rep. Van Epps’ June 16 AMZN sale was one of 13 stocks sold from the same account that day (GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META and others), and Kean’s filing says third-party advisors make his trades. Across all of 2026, the House PTRs I could find come out about even: 10 buys and 9 sells, all small. So Congress isn’t making a call here either way. The $350 target lives or dies on AWS growth against the capex bill. Amounts are ranges as filed. No AMZN position.
I mean, you're not wrong but I'll wager that SAP also use MSFT in their core operations, (and probably to a much larger extent). And SNOW is where those enterprises are now doing a lot of their development, and that's a closed ecosystem, so pulling SNOW means abamdonong whatever they've built. It'sayne not as widespread as SAP, but it's a super-sticky customer relationship to try and exit from.
>The Nasdaq in 2000 was the opposite, it fell 78.4% over 31 months and didn't close above its March 2000 high until April 2015. This statement holds a lot of meaning for a person who might have lump summed all their investment capital ito the NAS in March 2000. It holds less and less meaning for the people who have smaller percentage of their investment capital invested in NAS in March 2000. The reality is the people who had been investing DCA through the 90's were doing just fine through the dot com burst and financial crisis. When 2022 hit, my portfolio did take a big haircut. But buying more AMZN MSFT GOOGL SHOP NVDA AVGO QQQ VOO would have increased my cost basis, because my accumulation had been done for years prior. Investors who buy and hold companies with growing top and bottom lines eventually get rewarded. It's the speculators that may need to panic.