Reddit Posts
We have now entered the next phase of the AI super cycle and here are the likely winners and losers
MSFT options collar: Avoiding constructive sale designation and understanding if strategy is sound.
If you had $100k to put into just one stock, what would you pick?
How do you think about holding concentrated positions after big gains?
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
Bearish thesis on Microsoft ($MSFT): My DCF model indicates extreme overvaluation due to AI capital intensity. Tear my assumptions apart.
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
3 ways to invest in OpenAI and Anthropic (pre-IPO)
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
Microsoft - Going Long / Burry is going Short
I Bought MSFT, Betting Against Michael Burry
Dooming on META: The Social Reckoning releases Oct 9th and Zuck wants to dilute you
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
Apple and Microsoft Correlation Analyses and Option Strategy
AI Rotation from Harness to Model: How To Play It
$NOK & $MSFT are Bringing Agentic AI Into Telecom Network Operations
Why so little discussion on the capability of AI models in investing subreddits? Isn't it the most important question right now?
$DMGI.V / $DMGGF — why the Christina Lake tenant is probably a real one, and why Canada is the point
44k from META since selling MSFT a month ago
Since selling my MSFT to META I have made $44k, while MSFT and the rest are bleeding
Back to breakeven with MSFT after about 6 months - worth holding?
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
Mag 7 already did their 100x (and more). So where does the next trillion-dollar (or multitrillion) company come from?
Simple circular financing explained: it’s only bad if the AI companies being invested in ends up bombing
Is the AI Capex vs. Semi decorrelation a buying op?
Gamers here, do you invest in a game company like Nintendo, Sega, etc?
Why i think AAOI will moon this coming week
Value / Margin of Safety Stocks to Consider?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Nebius ($NBIS): The Catalyst Set to Explode Tonight at 18:00 ET
Why is Buffet & Abel aggressively accumulating so much Google but none of the other hyperscalers?
With most 13Fs released, here are superinvestors' top 10 buys from Q2
Made $375k CAD day trading using margin in 60 days
MSFT has accepted delivery of IREN's 50MW Horizon 1 facility
$IREN delivers first 50MW Childress Horizon 1 facility to $MSFT
First ever closed trade on moomoo, and it's a solid win thanks to Microsoft
I'm deciding to sell NASA (tema) etf for tax loss harvesting, since I made around $300 in profit so far in 6 months. Should I do it or no? Needed thoughts.
Put ~$1.17M into MSFT. 29 days later walked away +$340K. 🫡
Ban bets Nintendo to $16 EOY and MSFT to 500 (when it was at 367) guy here. Ban bet to $25 by EOY.
free tool where you can enter any S&P 500 ticker and compare its historical performance
MSFT - bought the dip June 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT - bought the dip Jun 29th, when to sell
MSFT hits positive net gamma exposure right now
I’m rotating around 80% of my MSFT position into META. Here’s my reasoning.
Ban bet Nintendo stock to $16 by EOY and if it hits $16 I’ll donate some switch 2s to children Hospitals
Where would you put surprise inheritance money
Big Tech's Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are distorting the corporate earnings picture
Mentions
That’s incorrect. MSFT has better credit rating (so lower interest) and its equity is cheaper because its volatility is lower.
Not everyone. The wealthy made $$$ and know when you pull out before the retail public is left with garbage tickers. Meta and MSFT and Google will just shrug this off.
What is this bizzaro world market where RDDT and MSFT are green while everything else is red!
NVDA has a lower cost of capital than MSFT.
CoreWeave is one of Nvidia's largest customers just like SPCX, ORCL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG. No surprise
See this is what many retail don’t understand. You think there’s some irrational bubble. It’s not. The market is acting VERY RATIONAL. Look at MSFT, META, GOOGL and AMZN. They are going up generally. The neoclouds like CRWV, IREN and NBIS are way down because their credit spreads have blown out. Those are all very rational moves
Made a table (gemini) and added more interesting stocks for the comparison: | Ticker | Market Cap | Q2 2026 Revenue | EBITDA | P/E Ratio | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **TSLA** | $1.48T | $28.24B | $1.90B | 336.67 | | **WMT** | $957.29B | $187.94B | $12.50B | 42.71 | | **005930** (Samsung) | $1.02T | ₩171.50T (~$126B) | ₩105.50T (~$77.5B) | 9.34 | | **MSFT** | $4.00T | $64.70B | $51.63B | 30.06 | | **MU** | $1.03T | $23.86B | $16.50B | 12.53 | | **NVDA** | $5.57T | $96.20B | $64.86B | 27.46 | | **GOOGL** | $4.18T | $119.80B | $173.16B | 17.54 | | **PLTR** | $482.94B | $1.94B | $1.19B | 170.86 | | **SPCX** | $2.02T | $7.81B | $3.54B | N/A (Private/Loss) | Samsung with the lowest PE makes sense due to lower foreign valuations.
If I remember correctly, weren't you the one who told me not to get Nike puts before earnings and instead invest in Nike if it fell because you saw a bigger upside that way? Your reasoning is always so sound whenever we zoom out 😄 I'm sure AMZN and MSFT will get their boost too!
Yeah you doofus, it’s one year old ofc it has debt. It will buildout its data centres and contract it out. MSFT and META have signed 40 billion in revenue. NBIS market cap was 45 billion. It’s the brained oversold position below 200
The speed of recovery was a nice surprise. I thought AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN would get a bigger boost instead of the retail sector. This was meant to be a 3-6 month hold and reassess. I’ll probably hold another few months
No but it has 45 billion in contracts form MSFT and META and it’s market cap was 50B so go figure
CAT GEV down because they’re part of AI infrastructure? But MSFT GOOG and IBM are in the green? Fuck this bipolar market.
#I love how every time I put a bid order for a contract its price immediately jumps $100 and every time I put a sell order for one my contracts the price immediately drops $100 even for super liquid tickers like SPY, NVDA and MSFT. LMAO🤌
Read the headline of the gartner report. It says neoclouds will cease INDEPENDANT operations. Which in my eyes translates to them either being acquired, or consolidated. Which is usually what happens when a new industry sprouts up out of nowhere. please see automobiles, internet, etc. So what is the downside of these companies being acquired by the likes of AMZN or MSFT? those companies have pockets, and will pay a premium
neoclouds are being mispriced. The neoclouds with current contracted power access are going to make bills....MSFT started financing some project and paid for something like 25% or the GPU's for whatever data center. That % is now approaching 50%, and sometimes even higher. This is because the hyperscalers understand that the access to power. The current access to Gigawatts of power, is where the bottle neck is going to be in short order. Memory, chips, etc....nobody will care in 6 months when there is not enough power to power all these fucking chips....neoclouds have the power
Friendly reminder NBIS has 40billion in contracts with MSFT and META. Current market cap is 50 billion.
Zoom out on MSFT and it was a falling knife and now look at it. This is exactly when you want to buy, it’s underpriced.
Out of the companies I listed: $NVDA, $TSMC, $TER, $META, $ASML, $MU, $SNDK, $MSFT Name one that is currently "making less money than it is spending" ? Or "not making money".
What? MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL and META are the ones spending the bulk of the CAPEX on AI and most of it is paid via their cash flows. Sure, they have also issued bonds to fund some of it but nobody has a problem letting these companies, with the largest moats in human history, borrow money
i need to start trading MSFT, since everything I do is wrong.
let me guess... MSFT is green?
MSFT is an absolute juggernaut
fair point on their core businesses, but you're ignoring the wild inter-company financing loop happening right now. Big Tech and NVDA are literally investing in each other and the same 4 AI startups for the 10th time. NVDA funds a startup -> startup buys NVDA chips & rents Azure cloud -> MSFT & NVDA report record revenue. on paper it looks like organic structural growth, but underneath it’s insane circular leverage.
I know so does the market;) just buy MSFT puts when MSFT jumps at open and thank me later 👋🏻
But what you should actually want to do is not even touch MSFT until like 2014, and use your money the preceding 14 years on things that will actually make money in the meantime
Changes to skilled worker immigration could create hiring friction for Microsoft, especially in specialized technical roles, but I'd be cautious about assuming an immediate earnings impact. Azure demand, enterprise software and AI spending are still major valuation drivers. Moon is where I approach shorter term headline reactions separately, while MSFT's long term case needs a broader view.
If I could go back to 2000 I’d love to but MSFT, yeah
If I wanted to be safer, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL. Also maybe MELI. All in Google or Amazon would be totally solid. If I wanted to take a really risk in hopes of 10xing in 3-4 years, PLTR. I would NOT do this though.
we know chips are printing, what matters at this point is increasing revenue from AI. Google and MSFT going to save the market again.
MSFT is a safe bet. try RKLB instead lol
All of it is a fugazi. OpenAI, MSFT, GOOG etc. are all fucked on the AI front.
$NVDA, $TSMC, $TER, $META, $ASML, $MU, $SNDK, $MSFT, the fuck? The list goes on and on. This is also during the scale-out period when the companies need to spend insane Cap-ex. Imagine if that cap-ex pays off and translate to scaled revenue?
A couple of additional thoughts... The current price action shows nobody is catching this fall. Nobody is buying the dip. It's all down even after hours. There was no bounce. Nobody is stepping in yet. They will some day, but not yet and I don't think it's close. I was around for the dotcom boom and bust. I helped cause it, working for one of the companies who everyone knows about and is synonymous with the dotcom bust. When the bust started in early 2000, investors sold out of the tech stocks and put their money into the "safe" S&P 500 and DOW. This lead to all new highs. Then it fell too because of the losses being hidden, and the fact that Puma was a fucking clothing company. The creative accounting being used in the tech companies was learned from the big boys, not the other way around. The exact same thing is happening now. The index is being held up, even reaching all time highs. Then it too will fall when marketing budgets get cut and the debt situation starts to get worse. This won't be as bad as the dotcom bust because GOOG/AAPL/MSFT/META all make real money, and they will recover, but they sure as fuck will go down. Stay safe first. Do the right thing you would advise someone else to do. In the morning I am selling the rest of my shit, taking massive losses in the process, and I'll sit it out and watch the rebound, or the dead cat bounce. I won't know which it is for a couple of weeks.
Not when we are correcting due to fears of the AI trade being over. CPI print doesn’t matter if the AI growth cycle is outpacing it. Look back to July when the same thing happened and MSFT came out with the earnings beat and SOXL and NBIS went 25% up the next day because the AI trade showed promise.
First they took our jobs, healthcare and ate our cats. Now they’re taking our NVDA and MSFT. Monsters! /s
The age of generational bagholders is upon us. Look at MSFT in the 2000s after dotcom crash.
I had calls on so many stocks and put on MSFT. All of them went in vain
Coreweave purpose is to absorb the shocks so MSFT and Meta dont take the hit. It’s all financial engineering 💁🏿♂️
I think the risk is more that there zero return on investment and shitty AI stops being shoehorned into shitty software. META abandoning the metaverse didn’t materially change their core ops and I think you could say the same about AI for META, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL. Not that AI is entirely useless, just that it’s mostly useless with its current function and iteration. I think there’s novel ways it has value and to increase worker productivity, but nobody is losing sleep if copilot (aka new Clippy) gets the ole Clippy treatment and sent to the shadow realm lol.
BTC MSFT 540P today and added a handful of MS and SCHW shares.
Pretty much. Even on the Qs, the one level all day they put much effort into defending was the key one ($726ish). It was only attacked for a few minutes. Problem is that was a nasty reversal candle on MSFT which had been doing so much of the heavy lifting on tech. I guess we could see a major rally tomorrow concentrating on like... Meta/MSFT/SPCX/GOOGL or something. That or a counter-trend rally on memory, but that's going to be tough with all the bad catalysts surrounding it.
That was what I unironically thought a couple days ago when I bought some MSFT and AMZN.. I guess losing 1.5% is not terrible
MSFT has been doing this for a while now
Its one of my favorite stocks and I'd say it's a buy anytime under $100. One risk is they are highly concentrated with about around 75% of revenue coming from AMZN and MSFT as customers, but they are pretty solid companies financially so that may be ciewed as a positive also.
Hedges need to dump chips and buy GOOG and MSFT tomorrow to compensate for the Anthropic fuck up.
Goog is the new MSFT
And people called me an idiot for buying MSFT with all my savings at $380
MSFT has inflated my gains for the year since I bought in this year almost at it's lowest before that climb. I'm usually at s&p returns slightly below or higher since I do pick specific stocks outside of voo as well. I'm at 19%. Bought a lot of goog this year too after that spike down. But all my plays are long term. I learned my lesson from this sub in 2021 and took a long break. If I just stuck with the basics I am now.... The amount of money I would had today if I started what I'm doing then.... It's so infuriating when I think about it.
The same argument can/should be made for MSFT, AMZN as well, or any other company with multiple product divisions. At the end of the day though, each terminates at the top under a single senior leadership team.
A bajallion dollar question is who comes out on top of the AI wars as king of the hill? Anthropic, OpenAI, Google? Or is it somebody we weren't expecting like Musk AI, META or MSFT?
Told you regards to buy MSFT short term puts.
I would place it in money market for a year and then invest after the bubble pops. But that's not what you asked. You pick a safe stock with growth potential. MSFT looks like they're screwing up XBOX, and everyone's going to hate forced neural chips for the next Windows version. Other countries are divesting themselves of GOOGL because they want data independence from Trump's America. AMZN also suffers from the GOOGL problem to a degree, but AMZN's core business is going to continue to be profitable so that's not going to affect them as much. NVDA is the answer because they actually make the NPUs that Microsoft is going to require, and eventually everyone is going to have to comply with the industry standard, leading to great growth. Apple, Intel, and AMD also make NPUs, and it'll be an interesting competition to see which one ends up being the industry leader.
Can I have my MSFT 535p back, please? 🥹
FUKKKK I SOLD MY MSFT 535p TOO EARLYYYY
I was too chicken shit to hold my MSFT puts any longer. Took a +$120 that was -$1800 yesterday and I'm out. Bought 780c SPY a week out in case the war ends via tweet again
Idk end of week calls on the typical dumpster fire stocks that do dumb shit on Fridays MSTR TSLA SPCX MU AMD You know the usual degenerate stuff Safer play would be retreating to the big boys MSFT AMZN GOOGL NVDA META
MSFT and QQQ options. Got caught the wrrong way every single time after months of scalping for gains.
APPL and MSFT are going to have to crack to really push this down
Need MSFT to go down AT LEAST 2% more to care
I wana short MSFT for a pullback but knowing this market, it’ll probably gap up tomorrow
MSFT down 1%?? There may be a god after all. I'm STILL not breakeven on these puts though so not good enough
MSFT finally dying. It's beautiful 🥲
MSFT with the pre market hesi
This is the key to me. Pick companies like MSFT and GOOG, who will benefit from the growth without being uniquely vulnerable to a sudden AI correction. Companies like NVDA are making money hand-over-fist right now, but if AI crashes, they might *never* recover to their current highs.
>No need to buy Microsoft that has software that people don't even like. I think this is the wrong notion of how MSFT makes money. People groan about Windows 11 and Xbox, but ultimately 62%+ of their revenue comes from selling services, Office, and Azure to other corporations. It's much harder to view that in the lens of "software that people don't even like". Apparently everyone buys it whether they like it or not, and MSFT is still one of the backbones of how everything works today.
I'm so sick and tired of MSFT only going up. It was ranging up and down constantly and now all of a sudden it just wants to run up and hold every $2 gain
This is nothing. I need WAY more downward movement on MSFT to even begin to break even, forget profit
Bit tough because the big tech aren't very undervalued right now like Google at $150 or Meta at $550. But, if I had to pick I'd pick amzn or MSFT. Google is great too. If you want something not in the Mag 6, I'm invested in Uber that I think is quite undervalued. They're booming in Gross Bookings, set up do benefit very strongly with AVs on their platform, and acquiring Delivery Hero to be the clear #1 in Delivery outside USA (which is DoorDash turf).
If you had MSFT at the peak a year ago, congrats ur finally even.
MSFT may never correct ever again. Green every day and we'll all be rich!!
IRA = \~37% Roth = \~63% I’d like to thank SPY, MU, MSFT, and GME
I thought the same, I hols 75k base at 81$, but 10 years? The sector is shaky and all the forecasts are for about 3 years from now. If I had to hold for year, 100%, but 10 years? Provably MSFT
MSFT is always a buy. It'll be here long term. Same for Google, Apple and Amazon as well imo.
All I know is $ADBE, $MSFT, $CRM and $INTU are cooked because of anthropics Ai. Not to mention all video game stocks as well. ArtCraft is just the start, if you're not shorting big software you're missing out.
Had over 20% of my portfolio in MSFT twice this year, made bank. Below $400 it was like Google last year below $200, a coiled spring
I effectively lived through this experience. I had some stocks, my wife got a big law job and now I had stocks I had to hold. You really want something sold that doesn't make you pucker. The ride with TSLA was interesting and a bit more nerve wracking. But the pile of AMZN, AAPL, GOOG and MSFT helped you sleep at night. If I was making this buy today GOOG is probably the right answer but I'd look hard at AMZN, they are the one lagging the other MAG 7 these days and if you are buying a big chunk of something to hold for a while buying low matters more. AAPL is another interesting option. Everyone is buying Apple gear to run AI on, so they are getting some of the boom. But unlike the others, Apple have not made massive capital investments in building out AI capacity. If this goes south they are not going to suffer.
Just sold all my MSFT shares to buy AVGO. Who with me ?
Claude's costs are annoying. I do the same with Claude because my employer pays but if it were my buck it'd be GPT 6 (its literally 100x cheaper than sonnet) so kind of an OpenAI maybe MSFT bet. Gemini I don't think I'd ever pay for in current form. Even if it were cheaper theyve locked it down way to much to be usable in current form
MSFT earnings feels like a great volatility play and QBTS, IONQ and PFE are some 1 year hold stocks and then reevaluate.
Either hyperscalers announce ROI is bustin’ (I think this is only true for MSFT) or this breaks.
Probably MSFT, they are a giant that never stops
For playing safe, GOOG or AAPL or MSFT or NVDA. To take some risk, MRVL or BE
Yeah I considered going cash and instead bought a bunch of MSFT. Up 40% in a few months haha
wait for MSFT to pullback to 480 then enter
GOOGL MSFT AAPL will be the winners of AI
MSFT It’s everywhere. Govt, big corps, schools.
i had some this year MSFT AMZN. paid off well. something to think about- but on which stock
Obviously, if you got them at their lowest point you got a good return but YTD MA is up 5.94%, V is up 12.93%. For comparison, MSFT is up 12.37% this year. GOOG is up 11.38%. AAPL is up 25.53%. NVDA is up 22.53%. META is up 15.38%.
MSFT wants 535 and then it wants 525. I'll allow it
Just realized I failed to close my MSFT put debit spreads so I will either be getting railed out or my dick sucked in the AM
Amazon, MSFT, Nvidia....they all did some cool new shit during the internet bubble too, and they dropped 80-95%. It doesn't matter how good it is, it matters if they can pay their debt and grow revenue faster than what's realistically possible.
MSFT had a shrek recovery time of about 0.05 secobds
Broadcom relies on big tech companies like GOOG , MSFT , META , Anthropic , OpenAI requesting to buy its chips as an alternative to NVDA , these companies have placed massive custom AI accelerators ( XPUs ) and networking chips to Broadcom , so AVGO has already a contractual pipeline for long term profitability , not sure why Broadcom's CEO thinks AI wave is a casino and gambling place , if so Broadcom is selling roulette tables ..
MSFT is one of those untameable beats they talk about in Greek mythology LMAO 🤌
It's easy, buy MSFT GOOGL and AMZN 🤗