MSFT

Lonely-Internet-7565

Why is MSFT shreking?

flicter22

True in the short run for quality companies with intact theses. Dangerously wrong for companies in structural decline. The survivorship bias is the real trap here — "I didn't sell and it recovered" works great for SPY, AAPL, MSFT. It worked terribly for Bed Bath & Beyond, SVB, or anyone who held Kodak through 2010. The losers don't make it into the highlight reel. The actual rule is: **can't lose if you don't sell AND the thesis hasn't changed.** The whole job is distinguishing between: - Temporary market dislocation (macro fear, sector rotation, headline risk) → don't sell - Permanent impairment of the business (competition eating the moat, management failure, leverage spiral) → reconsider The psychological problem is that those two things feel identical when you're in the middle of a drawdown. The companies that end up worthless always looked like "temporary" dips to holders on the way down. How I manage this: I keep a live ticker wall running ambient via MarketCast so I stay oriented to macro movement vs. my individual names without obsessively checking. Makes it easier to separate "market is down" from "my thesis is broken."

Charming_Raccoon4361

delist MSFT yes yes

flicter22

The OpenAI stake argument is interesting but I'd frame it differently — MSFT's real AI moat is that it's the only way institutional money gets AI exposure without owning a pure-play that's burning cash toward profitability. Azure OpenAI revenue is already in the quarterly numbers. Copilot seat count is a real metric. The stake is a kicker, not the thesis. That said, the market keeps punishing MSFT on any hint of capex expansion because everyone's paranoid about margin compression at this stage of the AI cycle. Watching the MSFT/NVDA spread on the tape is actually useful — Azure growth quarters are when you see that gap close fast. I keep a live ticker wall running via MarketCast just so I catch those rotation signals without having to stare at a brokerage all day.

ChangeNOW_Community

if the AI boom keeps compounding, MSFT doesn't exactly look like it's standing on the sidelines

CosmosMasterMan

MSFT Quantum is definitely a meme tho. Majorana 2 what a wiff.

flicter22

Market setup update: sold my remaining NVDA calls for a small win before close, not trying to hold through the overnight with FOMC minutes dropping tomorrow. Going long MSFT and SPY calls into the open. Tech looked ready to bounce and the CPI print didn't explode anything. Also finally got MarketCast set up on my Fire TV — live ticker running all day in the background while I work. Stopped the constant phone refreshing habit. Probably lost 2 IQ points doing that every 5 minutes anyway.

Upstairs_System_6257

I suspect a red day but MSFT is also red so doesn't check out 🤔

Terron1965

MSFT dipping towards $350 twice in the last six months has made me a pretty big believer.

Plastic_Ninja_9014

MSFT what did do you this time?

GuwopGOAT

On the real- Google and MSFT

Molten-Helldiver

MSFT red rest of market green (barely). World is healing folks

powerboner

MSFT sliding back to 470 was like the most obvious shit ever don’t even cry about it

vanguarde

Then it's not just the value of their stake that goes down. 70% of MSFT AI revenue comes from Open AI. Poof. 

ez399017

MSFT red? Calls it is 😈

GlobalResolution77

Guess selling 60% of my MSFT at 495 before closing wasn´t retarded

chobro17

Did the viagra run out on MSFT?

Many_Tip_3973

Oh MSFT, you can come back can’t ya….

OG_Tater

I have a cost basis of about $1 on NFLX, $12 on NVDA, $50 on MSFT, $8 on Apple. $9.50 on Amazon. $3.75 on RKLB. That’s why. The name of the game is outperforming the index. Sometimes that requires buying a good company and holding forever, until you believe it’s over or have better uses for the money.

GooglySoft

MSFT back to the dumpsters

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

I predict MSFT will be able to charge a lot more for copilot going forward. Easiest bet in the world really. 

Molten-Helldiver

MSFT red again afterhours…

Exquisite-Load8654

MSFT shareholders can only dream

Bkcntrybnd

And any kind of news, especially anything negative on the OpenAI front, should it happen, will cause MSFT to come tumbling down, as with MSFT market perception is everything regardless of fundamentals. And that is the reality, it is not that most of the doubters are bears, many have just ridden this wave up and down and flat and up and down and flat again for quite some time. Been relentless. Even at current values, the stock's still down for the year, so its not like there was this huge windfall, and for long term holders, it just put the stock back on a slow trajectory somewhat in line with all its main peers who are all up solid double digits for the year.

Pure-Ad4246

MSFT needs to lock the fuck in

Helios420A

MSFT fundamentals have always been fine, but look at the last couple years, man, this shit is allergic to staying up

DatDude_1p

$MSFT Tough decision but I'd lock in those gains tomorrow since it just lost the 9 SMA on the daily chart which is currently at $492.75 and we just had our first close below that today...so I'd sell at least your cost basis tomorrow morning and ride freebies or you could potentially sell all contracts. Fundamentals look solid as well but that's an awfully nice profit to be able to take! https://preview.redd.it/ywmagwe7i0jh1.png?width=1665&format=png&auto=webp&s=095a73f3dc39a4a2c5c9df804cd52255e3e0767f

dl__

That's such great news! I remember hitting 100K. In the early 90's I took $9K out of the $10K I had in my 401K and bought MSFT. It dropped for several days and I started kicking myself. I didn't sell and as you probably know, the 90's were a good time for MSFT. Later in the decade I hit $100K and I couldn't believe it. It was more money than I thought I'd ever have. It was in a 401K so I knew I couldn't touch it for decades but still. I felt so rich. After that, $200K, $300K etc. didn't seem so special. I didn't get a moment like that again until sometime in the 2000s when I started seeing I was making more in asset appreciation than my salary. I started seeing work as potentially optional. It was nice. Congratulations again!

Educational-Ad-4908

I’m positive on MSFT but super negative on OpenAI’s outlook

Kantmzk

People being so bearish on this stock this year was laughable. I have been buying since 2018 and I sold a huge amount of VITAX jn my Roth IRA to buy a massive stake of MSFT when it dipped hard this year. That was easy and I don't even care about the share price as I am happy to collect the dividends and intend to hold for many years to come. The setup this year reminded me a lot of the massive amount of pessimism surrounding Alphabet over the past year or two.

FederalLobster5665

then it was just an irrelevant rounding error for MSFT financial performnace and value

caprividog

With the brain drain they've had, they are approaching MSFT level

NerdSlamPo

GOOG is the weirdest stock in the market right now. feels like MSFT did a month ago

version-two

Meta’s? Yeah no good either. Here’s the thing, let me know what META’s plans are to monetize AI and generate returns. Selling compute isn’t going to backfill the capex spend, and the market isn’t going to buy that if NBIS and others keep growing. I don’t know if we will have an AI winner or if it’s a bubble, but at this point MSFT Googl and AMZN are the only mag I trust to print money and continue growing rev with their product lines. What is meta’s value prop? I genuinely don’t know and zuck fumbled the fuck out of that question. I’d be happy to be wrong too.

Sandvicheater

Was Steve Ballmer that bad of a MSFT CEO? He completely ignored the smartphone revolution and sent the prices back to the stone ages during his tenure.

MrCoolGuy42

So back to our regularly scheduled program of MSFT sucking dick every day?

bearhunter429

#A couple months ago analysts were racing with each other to downgrade MSFT when it was trading near $350. Now they are back to upgrading it after the stock already pumped like hell LMAO🤌

CuckedbyPowell

MSFT please I beg you

CuckedbyPowell

MSFT tearing me a new one

mr_snickerton

Lol I think you need therapy honestly. I don't care about your MSFT position at all. I have 2500 shares of NVDA, I'll be fine probably.

Ok-Nose29

$MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $NBIS $CRWV all smashing EPS expectations is great for everything else. The whole point of everything else is making money from data centers so we've at least verified cash flow for 1 quarter

Geoff_Dawmer

I'm going to leave $1M in MSFT stock to my grandmother when I die.

dabblesest

Just thought of you when I offloaded my 500p’s this morning. Dollars to donuts my MSFT position is bigger than yours lmfao But you’re too smart

Emilio___Molestevez

that was when retards were still doubting AI RoI. $AMZN and $MSFT answered that question conclusively. $META can't quit now.

spicykimchi_inmybutt

https://preview.redd.it/2h0x4gzxvyih1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=de88e2f23339d801159632f3880a2c9f1a9a1fb8 Yep, GOOG is the new MSFT

stumblios

If you buy the biggest names, you can often of count on them to recovery after a slump. But on the other hand there are notable bankruptcies every year for "historic" companies that lost their edge, so it's not a guarantee. Or if you take a look at 99% of the stocks posted on /r/PennyStocks, you'll see plenty of companies which have no hope recovering. They reverse split and pump out new PRs to lure in new suckers, never make a profit, rinse and repeat. The other thing to think about is opportunity costs, excess return, alpha, etc... For example, someone bought MSFT for on January 2nd, you'd be up ~4%, which is technically making money. But through the lens of opportunity cost, you could have made ~13% holding the SP500, which is both more money and lower risk. Individuals are typically bad at micromanaging stocks because we get emotional and are often blind to our own biases. Meanwhile the SP500 index (all indices, I suppose) micromanage themselves formulaically - no emotion, just math making consistent adjustments over time.

Lonely-Internet-7565

For MSFT. I hate the new chat, it's like a monkey on coke

Lonely-Internet-7565

Can MSFT goes to 480 today?

L0pat0

if MSFT doesn't get its shit together and I have to roll these credit spreads im going to be MILDLY annoyed

TheMagarity

In 2012 I was trying to figure out what to buy when I recalled an interview withh Bill Gates in the mid 90's. The interviewer asked wtf was he thinking recently buying a big chunk of IBM stock since the price was in the depths. He said a lot of smart people still worked there, the upper management had just lost the way temporarily. I checked MSFT and it's price was only 27. I figured a lot of smart people still worked there but management had lost the way temporarily. I still have it, it's currently trading at about 500, and the dividends accumulated enough that earlier this year the original purchase has been paid back.

Internal-Address3142

MSFT get ur ass back up there

steem99

I replaced the first letter of the MAG7 with an F when I was mad at MSFT and META and got a 3 day ban. I think it was worth it

LabyrinthLayers

Why is software selling off today? Just following MSFT?

PoobliusFlavius

The Wyrm has turned for MSFT

That-Decision-7194

Why is MSFT down?

Flat-Focus7966

Looks like MSFT red.....market green theory still holds

OrangMiskin

MSFT is dumping

Tardigrade_Man

MSFT does NOT reward call buyers

CosmosMasterMan

It's MSFT, they'll do it in 10 days or 10 years.

CosmosMasterMan

MSFT Bag is full of stems and seeds.

silverfutes

Called the doc about my 4hr erection. He suggested I try $MSFT.

IntrepidToday0

They already have. MSFT already has, hence the reason it’s now $500 instead of $380-400

GlobalResolution77

Back to normal. Semis pumping, MSFT dumping

No_Presentation9490

MSFT will test its 50sma too

CosmosMasterMan

AVGO eating up while APPL, GOOGL, and MSFT start a Keto Diet xD

rockclimberguy

I knew MSFT was going to move back up and did not buy the LEAPS I knew I should have. There was one 12 month out LEAP I looked at a couple months ago that was $17 and change. 6 or 7 weeks later it is trading north of $90. Would have, could have, should have....

Eastern-Contact-2034

New MSFT inverse bet: Apple red = market green

Faceless_213

Yup! That's why I am looking at ETFs and individual stocks! Funny you should mention MSFT. They are on the only company on my watchlist for when I exit these dozen or so random stocks. Everything else will be into ETFs or other companies I already own.

ITS_FAKIN_RAVEEN

MSFT is down while everything else is up. The world is healing.

jheffer44

I did this with MSFT when it was down around 360. Pretty simple. Just buying not sketchy calls deep in the money way out in the future. You still have alot of leverage. They're just more expensive to pay for initially 

boglemydingleregard

Made 2 grand training Copilot from my couch this week. I'd just like to thank all the MSFT investors for the neverending capex. 🥂

aka0007

Actively not. I hold some MU and NVDA. My main concern with AI is any disruption (disruption being something that prevents build-out of data centers resulting in reduced CAPEX, if even temporarily) will cause profits of infrastructure companies (NVDA, MU, SMCI, etc) to plummet. I think companies at the hyperscaler level (GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, etc) are much less likely to face any disruption as demand for AI is something I believe will continue to increase faster then their ability to supply it. AI is just something the more it is used the more it needs to be used. The demand never decreases, perhaps at points it may slow down increasing due to pricing and utility but eventually the utility will improve and demand will increase. Bottom line.. I think companies like MU are probably good to invest in but I prefer to be more heavily invested in companies like GOOG.

Davecmartin

Noticed this from the MSFT CFO as well, then she sounded v different under questioning. They’re essentially just admin people with social skills so they’re happy to outsource their brain I guess

Possible-Material693

That’s exactly why I stopped selling them. I have 300+ shares of MSFT and the premium is decent but I don’t want to miss out on more upside if it pulls a Google

Fast_Working_9261

It was clear to me that MSFT got beaten too badly and was mistreated so I thought I should go in with long term outlook. Around the same time I bought GE and UBER calls too because they were both beaten too.

Lonely-Internet-7565

You have calls or puts? I need MSFT to decline by 15% for my puts to come to life

Eagerbeaver98

Dude no one cares how many depreciating assets you have LOL it still is a value trap, the only reason any stock gaining atm is because everything bounced near the 200 day MA. It doesnt change the fact all of them have been value traps. None of this is fundamental except MSFT cloud revenue for once in 3 years has actually be good. Its cute youre trying to seek my validation though, kinda pathetic moreso though. Everyone is making money right now so I dont get why you act like youve done something 😂

dazeyawn

Okay, but why post MSFT shares here? You didn’t make a bet much less a regarded one. I made 800% on calls. That was impressive regardedness.

yatv

11 days later... “Value traps” seem to be doing quite well. Cashed out and made another 500k off the Meta calls I picked up at the time of this post ($524) and up massively on the MSFT shares I picked up at $445. My new Ferrari is being delivered next week btw 😁 I’ll check back with photos of it next to my McLaren once it arrives.

Lonely-Internet-7565

Can MSFT go to its original level of 400is range in 1 week?

Possible-Material693

lol I can think of plenty of instances recently. Nvda would do that all the time and everyone says just roll. But it got to the point where I was just eating into my profits rolling constantly. Apple just tanked almost 10% in one day. MSFT went up 18% in one day. Meta down 9% in one day. Shit happens. Obviously a move to the downside is great if you sold a covered call but to say they never have large moves is naive

bigfan49

I just bought MSFT and NVDA at a random moment in time and recouped all of my bullshit penny stock losses in 6 months

vsmand1

So Jensen has said in past earnings reports that he sees companies like Coreweave and Nebius, being more important customers in the future than the MAGS. That is why Nvidia has invested in the likes of IREN, NBIS, and CRWV. While the hyperscalers are larger customers now, they are also future competition, MSFT and AMZN are building their own chips. Which they will look to potentially sell in the future. Google is all TPU. Meta I believe is developing their own chips as well. These neoclouds are not looking to be Nvidias competitor in the future, that’s why they are supporting them.

Infamous_Ad8730

CAPE ratio is based on older style economy that was nearly all based on 5-10% margin businesses like car manufacturing, steel and metals, consumer goods, etc. that are the "E" part of CAPE. Todays economy is WAY , way more centered on much higher margin businesses like technology, communications, and information. NVDA's margin is a whopping 75% and MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL and many others are north of 50%. New economy earnings (the "E" again) vs old economy of much lower (WAY lower) margins.

HaveAKlondike

No one gives a shit about better if the cost benefit ways towards a competitor. That’s why Google, MSFT and Meta are building their own vertical, the cost l-benefit favors building in house and becoming less reliant on NVDA.

CranberryLast4683

Tbf he’s betting on MSFT. Not BBW

HaveAKlondike

No one gives a shit about better if the cost benefit ways towards a competitor. That’s why Google, MSFT and Meta are building their own vertical, the cost l-benefit favors building in house and becoming less reliant on NVDA.

haze_from_deadlock

GOOG in August is about as miserable as MSFT was in June

Ok_Location_1092

AI: Rather than giving subscribers access to posts hours in advance, the service gives automated trading algorithms **millisecond-level (or multi-second) speed priority**. Paid API connections receive the data package directly into their systems before the post propagates across the standard Truth Social web app, mobile push notification network, or general internet scrapers. Blatant insider trading, but I find it really concerning that hedge funds or whoever is paying for this have markets gamed out to this extent, and it has already and will continue to get worse with ai. Its where ai was first used and trained, when everyone thought it was just a MSFT commercial with Common. Maybe even more concerning that these companies have fiduciary duty. CEO’s need to make the call on if the risk to shareholders - it is being sold by the president, after all - is worth the benefit to shareholders. Whether it is right or wrong morally needs thrown aside. Trump and his goon squad’s continued willingness to break the law and sell corporations the benefit is not only encouraging, but nearly forcing corporations to take part, thereby normalizing, step by step, our decent into and more directly enforced oligarchy.

haze_from_deadlock

WSB thinks MSFT is going to start making graphics cards

Kantmzk

I have consolidated my portfolio to just three holdings with massive positions in MSFT, NVDA, and 30 shares of MU that I bought when it was something like 310 USD/share on a whim that it was cheap going into a heavy memory shortage.

Liquidsnake959

Things just ain’t been the same since Mr. MSFT left. 

Rare-ish_Birb

Something big has to be sold off over the next couple of months to generate the 2 trillion in cash needed to buy OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. Most likely GOOGl, TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, or even MSFT again. 😆😂

PatrickSebast

What is the next MSFT? Need some oversold stocks to drool over but never actually buy until it is too late.

RuleSafe6767

$Crwv reminds me of the easy-mode years when the story was that every dollar spend on hardware was 10x minimum revenue with further upside, so market cap just flew on every announcement that companies were spending more on "build out" lol. Now we seen poor MSFT spent close to half a trillion over the years only getting 1/20th revenue; and zero percent is profit

CD274

I think it was MSFT

Dejectly

MSFT open at 520 please

FriendlyGold1717

Hold 100% MSFT for \~8 months. Bought in at 450 then slowly DCA more. I believe in the company but with all the dips, I couldn’t stomach them all. Sold half before earnings and it bounced lol. It’s tough holding only few stocks when all they do is keep dipping lol. Move to etf. The gain might be less but I can now sleep better at night.

JahMusicMan

When I started investing in 2019, I had no idea what I was doing so I was buying small (like a few hundred $) of VTI, VOO, QQQ, VUG, VT thinking I was diversifying. But it's too late for me to rebalance to a more simpler portfolio with just VTI, VXUS, and VB/VBR since I have sizeable gains. I'm Mag 7 heavy especially since I own META, MSFT, and some APPL too.

Unable-Mud-2065

lol fair 😂 That’s actually pretty close to what I was getting at. Like you throw in SPY + QQQ + VUG and instead of seeing 3 ETF names, it shows you the combined underlying companies + your actual exposure to each one I’d probably want more than just the company list though. Like combined weight in NVDA/MSFT/AAPL, sector concentration, overlap %, maybe how those exposures behaved in drawdowns Would that be the kind of thing you mean, or are you mainly looking for a simple “here’s everything you effectively own” breakdown?