Reddit Posts
All BS aside, how’s calls on MSFT looking this week?
Me going into earnings week with $5000 in SMCI, MSFT, & AMD calls
Need to practice option trading with paper money
Who’s ready to burn their life savings this week
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
This is a small dumb little thing but it's HUGE in its Implications - Google Puts Chrome On Windows ARM - Effectively Seeding Chromebooks
Who’s buying MSFT & AMD calls for earnings?
I took too long to move my MSFT stocks and now I don't know if I should wait after the weekend to buy.
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia's Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses 🚀
Equinix Launching Service for Nvidia’s Al Supercomputing Infrastructure to Businesses
Wall Street Newsletter S03E06: All-time highs are here. What's next?
Poor Man’s Covered Call What it is, why I’m doing it with $30k worth of MSFT calls , and why you should consider trying it. TLDR at TOP
MSFT has now overtaken AAPL in market cap.
Some predictions for Microsoft, Palantir, AMD, Amazon, Spotify and Tesla.
Is it normal for the index funds to be weighted this heavily by mega caps?
What are your top picks for the top performance stocks for this year?
Epic V Continues to Show How Little Risk Exists
Has anyone seriously looked at Global Foundries [$GFS]
$CBDW News 1606 Corp. CEO Attends Consumer Electronics Show (CES) For Collaboration Meetings
$MSFT has potentially created a "new battery" with AI - Musk / $TSLA Says Interesting
Top 10 S&P 500 companies by market cap weighting since 1980. MSFT is the reining champ for persistence.
The true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
A true interpretation of Friday's Jobs Report
Lumen $LUMN Insider & Big Boys Buying Spree Post Dividend Halt, Kate Johnson & Co. Personally Buying the Dip
LUMEN $LUMN INSIDER & BIG BOYS BUYING SPREE POST DIVI HALT, KATE JOHNSON & CO. BACK THE DIP HARD!
And the AI Show Goes On - GPT 4.5 Turbo Leaks - $MSFT - Its Real And Available -https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai
Taiwan Semi (TSMC) will be 'back to strong growth in 2024' - JPMorgan (holding small position)
Potential for massive shorts/puts tmrw (Jan 4th) after the release of the Epstein List (likely today after market close, Jan 3rd)?
If Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s list is this a great put buying opportunity for MSFT?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on the Jeffrey Epstein Client List sound like a bad idea?
Does buying puts on MSFT if Bill Gates is on Jeffrey Epstein’s client list sound like a bad idea?
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if Buffet needs a new #2.
80% on the year for 2023, wonder if buffet needs a new #2.
How would you spend $1500 if you regularly forget stocks exist for months at a time? How do you decide which stocks are to be held and which losses cut?
Keep an eye on $MSFT (potential put money making opportunity)
If you had $40k to invest right now, what would you do with it?
The NYTs is suing Microsoft and I think there is a profitability play on their stocks
New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
The commercialization of multimodal models is emerging, Gemini now appears to exceed ChatGPT
Do you ever buy stocks outside of the indexes and Mag 7 near all time highs?
Question regarding this type of Play Option?
The biggest lesson that I've learned in my 10 year investing career.
MSFTs Open Ai will raise funds with valuation of $100B
Mentions
Gonna buy leap puts on MSFT, windows 11 is a flop
what are the odds that MSFT hits $550ish by the end of december?
AMZN, META & MSFT- Take positions now for earnings on Jan 29th.
The usual, Get my hopes up from the morning pump, and end the day with enough profits to buy a mcchicken. Damn you MSFT.
"spread out" and "NVDA MSFT and GOOGL" in the same sentence LMFAO
GOOG was my next AI pick after I thought NVDA was already too expensive in mid 2023 (it wasn't), I've invested a lot more this time and did pretty well too (but not that over 10x like with NVDA). I personally use a lot of Google products. I just don't like MSFT products and that holds me from owning the stock. I do shop on Amazon and use AWS (although I wouldn't say "I like it") and invested a bit in AMZN.
Yeah I'm pretty well spread out now with NVDA, MSFT, GOOGl, and the other heavy tech hitters. Trust what I know and stop chasing.
Anyone who actually think NBIS is a meme stock is an idiot. Meme stocks don’t get $20 billion worth of deals with MSFT and META, regardless of how the stock is moving.
Waiting for a buyer. Github was bought out by MSFT. Maybe they thing someone like IBM will buy them out.
UBER META MSFT all looking very sexy today
MSFT had a midday spike that got slammed back down and has been pinned just under $490 stretching back to 10:30 am before that midday spike. But market markets don't influence the market no sirree.
Welcome to the MSFT and APPL show... Last few weeks have been hilarious watching the manipulation.
regret not buying MSFT when it dipped below 470
NVDA and AMD are genuinely screwed META, GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT all reducing dependance OpenAI will say just kidding about those big deals next
GLD puts and MSFT are the only thing saving me this week
Thanks, I've skipped a lot of details in my DD. The core idea is that you're betting on IFS taking off and more importantly on Lip-Bu Tans connections. Key things about IFS: \- They can take existing nodes produced by competitors (like TSMC, Samsung) even DRAMs and fit them into a single chip. --> This is key, because it allows them to offer IFS even before they release manuals for 18A to the public \- Backside power delivery, advanced cooling play into benefits of using INTC Key things about Lip-Bu Tan: \- Connections to AMZN (via AnnapurnaLabs), DEC5 might be a strong catalyst (AWS re:invent) \- Connections to MSFT (detailed here) \- AAPL is a strong candidate, due to savings on logistics, and advanced cooling \- MediaTek (Approached by Google to produce new TPUs) \- Marvell Technology (Via Celestial AI, recent potential acquisition, they are also investing in a new fab for advanced packaging in Malaysia, where photonics fabs are common - checkout also XFAB, might be a potential - but extremely speculative - investment too) \- Qualcomm (they're hiring EMIB engineers, just like AAPL) \- Broadcom (here it will most likely be just licensing, for rack tech) Many more...
I have a job so I have to use MSFT products but that doesn't mean I like owning the stock
Well, I don't know how long they can sustain it, but they're going to have a MONSTER year next year. They'll have 250B+ in FCF in F'27. At THAT point, there has to be more of a return on investment or at least we have to be moving closer to one outside of just AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL. I'd say the next decade of AAPL is safer. The next Decade of NVDA has more upside and more downside(much more of both). But the next \~18 months... that should easily be NVDA.
Yes, I would absolutely choose $50k in VOO over GOOG. I'm old enough to have gone through the dot com bust when I was a teenager. If you're asking this question, I assume you aren't old enough to remember the dot com boom. Do you even remember the 2008 GFC? The markets can change faster than you can possibly imagine. No sector or individual company is immune from having their stock price devastated. I retired at 35 and was pretty much all VTSAX (VTI) once I stopped day trading after the dot com bust. Even now that I've been retired for 7+ years, I simply keep three years of expenses in cash and the rest is still in VTSAX. I don't care whether NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, or whoever is next has a good run -- I hold them all and go about enjoying my retirement.
Yes, because putting all of your money in one company is usually not a great idea in the long run. How much GOOG/L do you need? It’s already part of the s&p 500. If I wanted tech companies, why wouldn’t I also want to own NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, etc?
Gamepass price increased 33% a month, will Xbox finally be profitable for MSFT?
Can we cc MSFT on that as well?
MSFT c500 for friday looking like a bargain with what might end up being a squeezy week for shorts(yeah yeah admin squeeze these nuts too! )
Sorry. Forgot this wasn’t r/stocks. MSFT MOON WEN 🚀 🚀 🚀
I’m in. Seems stable. Looking forward to a steady week of MSFT growth.
MSFT been disappointing last couple of months
Copilot told me to not invest in MSFT LMAO
LISTEN! $AMZN HAS ITS AWS CONFERENCE TODAY AT 11AM. they are about to tell everyone they are adding 2GW A QUARTER ( estimates) for next 8 qtrs. That's approx $5b QoQ AWS growth!!! $245 Dec calls will print 🖨!!! Pair trade is to short $MSFT
Was feeling bullish about MSFT but had the misfortune of moving back to Windows 11 due to work. Puts
Curious - Given Gemini success (similarly with MSFT and copilot/chatgpt) could an AI bubble burst benefit them, thinking like the ecom bubble did for amazon and eBay?
I’m worried MSFT is gonna get delisted
There absolutely can be overpriced leaders inside a real economic, technological... shit a *paradigm* shift... that isn’t in dispute. Cisco and Intel were phenomenal businesses in 2000 and still got crushed. But the biggest difference is what their valuations were built on. The dot com rally was powered by a one-time infrastructure build-out (PC penetration + telecom network expansion). When that capex cycle peaked, demand collapsed and earnings stalled. Growth wasn’t just slowing, the whole damn thing ran out of gas lol. AI demand is fundamentally different: - It isn’t tied to a single industry - It isn’t dependent on speculative adoption - It isn’t waiting on new infrastructure to monetize - It directly reduces recurring operating expenses across the entire economy AI doesn’t just help people browse websites faster, it automates the actual work of businesses. The primary buyer of AI capacity isn’t a handful of telcos. It’s every Fortune 500 finance team, HR department, legal group, customer service org, supply chain team, and developer workforce trying to survive a competitive efficiency squeeze. That’s not a temporary capex boom.. that’s a structural labor-to-compute substitution cycle. Could NVIDIA or MSFT correct 30–50%? Yeah, sure, and that wouldn’t make this a bubble. Amazon dropped 95% in 2000 and still went on to define the next two decades of commerce. A bubble is when: - valuations depend on cash flows that never materialize. AI valuations depend on: - cash flows that are already materializing and accelerating as adoption compounds. So yeah okay, some names are ahead of themselves and there will be winners and losers. But calling the entire sector a bubble ignores the underlying economic reality that this time the growth isn’t powered by hype, but instead it’s powered by the permanent automation of human labor... which is basically the largest cost line in the global economy. That’s a very different risk profile than 2000.
Pretty much all of my initial holdings during my younger and impatient years. Some of my stocks and buy points included: AAPL ($32), NFLX ($18), MSFT ($25), DIS ($45), PCLN ($18) Too many more to remember. Eventually got older and wiser...
satya nadella has the biggest forehead i have ever seen i don't know why my retirement account isn't 100% MSFT
\>It's in cloud, productivity software, and automation with *recurring* monetization. The strongest AI leaders are these diversified cash machines where AI is accelerating existing earnings, not solely justifying valuation. That's a fundamentally different risk profile than 2000. This is the problem. The extremely high growth is priced in, even if they could only sustain current revenue levels (hell, if they could only sustain 20% annual growth), it would be a bubble. NVDA is priced in for \~30% annual growth every year for the next 10 years. \>Cisco and Intel were amazing companies, but their valuations priced in infinite growth from a *single* demand wave. AI leaders are pricing in multi-sector productivity gains that companies depend on to stay competitive. How was the internet not "pricing in multi-sector productivity gains"? That was literally the entire point of the internet. \>The dot com bubble was mainly valuations priced on a "maybe someday"... Whereas AI valuations are pricing in revenue that's already happening and accelerating. It's almost an identical scenario. Many companies like MSFT went down 50%+ during the 2000s. They were well-established, they had revenue, and were accelerating...until they weren't. There were companies that had ridiculous valuations, but there were also companies that were solid.
the drop to shake people out followed by the giga pump into 330-350 eoy, if there is no bad macro news for mag7: currently NVDA(4.4T) looks cheaper than GOOGL(3.80T), and AAPL(4.2T) feels weird to me imo META seems potentially strong for 2026, MSFT also looks very good at current price AMZN is just untradable for me with options, it is cheap but there is no floor, it can crash for no reason other than macro and it slowly grinds back up killing calls with theta it just doesn't get attention, if you buy just shares you are fine
Sold MSFT for like $40 years ago...
The AI trade has decisively split recently. The Google compute complex, including AVGO, LITE, CLS, and TTMI, has soared. The OpenAI compute complex, including ORCL, AMD, CRWV, MSFT, and NVDA, has crashed. Of course, underlining this split has been: 1) the growing popularity of Google’s TPUs for AI compute, 2) fears about Nvidia GPU market share erosion, 3) concerns about a lot of the circular financing deals from OpenAI and Nvidia, and 4) a huge breakthrough from Google with Gemini 3.0.
1) literally everybody talking about google's TPUs 2) What about MSFT who can put Copilot (which utilize GPT) into Office which everybody uses and Outlook/teams which tons of orgs use. Pretty similar, Android is a significant delta. Google putting their AI in their existing software is... not remotely sneaky. 3) Yeah, they have more data than most of the other players, only matters if/how you use it. Thinking "more data better" just further heightens how ignorant you clearly are.
Sadly, I keep a list with sold prices, current price, and how much more i would have if i didn't sell. Yes. I am a masochist. And none of these are "kinda regret", they are full "please God, let me go back in time so i can prevent this". ABBV GOOGL IBM LEU MSFT MPLX PLTR VOO
This. MSFT will likely buy them before they IPO. OpenAI will be forced to sell to pay off all the loans.
If MSFT and UNH were people I would punch em
Cash week. Hopefully we get a chance to buy the DIP $GOOGL $290 $AMZN $220 $MSFT $460 LETS PRAY
When I was younger, I used to try "trading" buying and selling - rinse and repeat. I did not have a specific strategy. I did it part time and eventually focused on Mutual Funds to make life easier. That being said, I later rollover some 401Ks into a Traditional IRA and started "investing" - long term hold, buy the dip. Some of the stocks that I was "trading" NVDA, MSFT, ORCL would have been great "investments" and great stocks for long-term hold and buying the dip. I also traded some crappy stocks so there is that.
MSFT I sold a bunch before pandemic lockdown.
Had to sell stock to pay bills Closed my MSFT and KO positions
IREN and NBIS are heavily discounted atm. Both had multi billion dollar deals with MSFT
Sold half of everything right after Covid and before the giant drop…. Should have re-bought everything I sold once it bottomed but things were so uncertain I did not know when the bottom was. The big one was META TSLA GOOG AMZN NVDA AAPL MSFT And more… The bad that came of it was missing the bottom to buy back in.. and owing taxes on the sales regardless of the fact I bought back in…META The good that came from it was the opportunity to reassess and reevaluate new avenues as well as move the sale $ into places I thought would be growing the most over the next 3-5 yrs. I have not gone back and evaluated if I would be in a better place now had I not sold anything and just rode it out.. but i have an overall feeling that I’m possibly in a better place …
MSFT. Had a ton at 25/share and held for like a decade or so under the Steve Ballmer years. The divy wasn’t enough for me to keep a flat stock. Doh.
Can’t wait for MSFT to get the GOOG treatment and randomly spike 20+% in a 3 day timespan
**- Monday** is pump NVDA day **- Tuesday:** Apple day **- Wednesday:** Banks **- Thursday:** Google **- Friday:** MSFT Oh and every day is a TSLA day. TSLA doesn't care about your fundamentals.
lol MSFT Pre-market 488.39 −3.53 (0.72%) this is a dump for ants.
MSFT 500 calls will print this week
Core cloud revenue growth from Dec '22 to Q3 '25: $GOOGL +108% $BABA +93% $AMZN (AWS) +54% $MSFT +44% $BIDU +18% Same AI cycle, very different compounding speeds.
Continuing to hold META UBER MSFT
Well, trading and investing are two different things. Investing even the winners can be losses if you’re not automated. I’ve seen people do great just auto buying their one favorite company: Apple, MSFT, TSLA, WMT, whatever. But they buy auto and don’t sell unless they have something urgent to pay for. Plenty of people start thinking: it is likely due for a correction, better cash out and buy that boat… there is all sorts of stuff. The problems get much bigger as the money gets much bigger. The emotions get heavier. 15% of 20k is easy to stomach, the same percentage of 2 million might take years off your life in stress. Success is a rarified air. Have to get accustomed to it.
MSFT please don’t put coal in my stocking.
My biggest concern is MSFT bankrolling a lot of OAI cash burn lately
I don't know why it isn't bigger news but "The Gates Foundation Trust sold 65% of its Microsoft (MSFT) stake in Q3, reducing the position from $13.9B to $4.76B." **65%**... I could understand 20-30% but fucking 65% is insane..
I can't buy stocks with my retirement account though. So I can't buy NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, etc. and can only buy FXAIX or JLGMX. I already have $230k in FSKAX so don't want to buy more of FXAIX. Where are you getting the 15.8% and 18.1% returns at? I just logged into my retirement account and am showing the opposite. I also don't own the $750,000 in stock yet -- right now I just have $230k FSKAX and $70k JLGMX so it diversifies it right now. I could always convert the $70k back to FXAIX next year once I own some of the other stocks/crypto. If the stock market crashes a 2nd time and crypto crashes a 2nd time and I lose my job and the real estate market crashes and I can't get a new job and all of my tenants move out (combination of 6 worst case scenario) then I'll still be able to pay back the HELOC. I'm not concerned about this scenario but I did take it into account. Also if there is a recession then the variable rate of the HELOC would lower.
You’re missing that JLGMX is just a 0.44% fee wrapper for the same tech stocks you already own individually (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN). You are paying 29x more in fees than FXAIX to double down on concentration risk, and it is currently underperforming the S&P 500 year-to-date (15.8% vs 18.1%). Your HELOC plan has a fatal flaw: it assumes you will keep your job during the recession that crashes the market. If your salary vanishes while your portfolio tanks, the bank forecloses. That is not a strategy; it is a coin flip with your house.
ChatGPT turns 3 today. Here's what happened since 2022 November 30, 2022: ChatGPT launches. Hits 1M users in five days. AI acceleration thesis begins — particularly around GPU demand. The Microsoft (MSFT)–OpenAI partnership* takes center stage (ChatGPT’s breakout sets expectations for a much larger capital commitment). OpenAI’s implied valuation (via secondary markets and tender chatter): ~$20B. 2023 January 2023: Microsoft announces its multibillion-dollar investment. Widely reported as ~$10B, structured over multiple years. Positions OpenAI as a core part of Microsoft’s cloud/AI strategy. Analysts re-rate MSFT’s long-term AI monetization and Azure demand. Multiple tender offers throughout the year value OpenAI between $27B and $30B. November 2023: The Sam Altman ouster attempt. The non-profit board abruptly fires Sam Altman as CEO. Greg Brockman (president/chair) resigns in solidarity. Microsoft, OpenAI’s main partner, publicly backs Altman. Within 48 hours, more than 700 of OpenAI’s 770 employees sign a letter threatening to leave for Microsoft unless Altman is reinstated. Under immense pressure, the board reverses course. Altman returns as CEO; a new board structure is formed with a clearer governance framework. 2024 Early 2024: GPT-4o, Claude 3, Gemini, etc. raise expectations for wide adoption across consumer, enterprise, and developer ecosystems. January–March 2024: New tender offers. OpenAI’s valuation climbs to $80B–$90B in private-market transactions. Investors begin benchmarking OpenAI against SaaS giants on long-term subscription potential. Mid–Late 2024: Monetization progress. Paid ChatGPT tiers (Plus/Team/Enterprise) grow steadily. AI becomes a defined revenue contributor in MSFT’s productivity, cloud, and security segments. Venture and corporate investment into AI startups accelerates, with OpenAI’s valuation anchoring the ecosystem. 2025 AI now embedded in workflows, shopping, productivity, and search. As of mid-2025: ~35M weekly OpenAI subscribers (Plus/Pro). By 2030: OpenAI projects 8.5% of ~2.6B weekly users will subscribe → ~220M paying users. OpenAI reaches $500B valuation in October.
You have the right idea, you’re just stating it in the wrong forum. In a mutual fund that tracks the SP500, the fund must own those shares. When people buy into the fund, the fund management goes out and gets more shares. More demand (“I need to be in the SP500!”) on a limited resource, means prices rise. The value of the index can rise independently of people investing in indexes. They may buy piles of shares of AMZN, MSFT, etc and drive the value of those shares up too. And that will bring up the value of the index as well. Or AMZN could independently tank tomorrow and suddenly be a mad rush for the exits on index funds because “people”. If everyone holding index funds runs for the exits, the fund managers have to sell those assets. Prices of the assets drop. The index drops.
Lmao high yield savings engine =\= growth stock portfolio. Also, look at the composition of FSKAX, FSPGX, and VUG. They have high compositions of MSFT, GOOG, META, NVDA.
>Since you're already heavily invested in VTI, putting the additional $5k into SCHG (Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF) could help diversify your portfolio a bit more within the U.S. stock market. No. Exactly the opposite. SCHG holds 197 stocks, 99% of which are already in the 3,539 held in VTI. By holding SCHG, you are becoming **less** diversified than holding VTI by itself. NVDA is 6.6% of VTI. It is 10.8% of SCHG. AAPL is 6.4% of VTI, 9.9% of SCHG. MSFT is 5.6% of VTI, 8.6% of SCHG. See how you are less diversified by holding SCHG? You're just holding more of the top stocks. You can use [https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php](https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php) to see the overlaps.
In fairness, he brought in the senior MSFT execs as clients at Goldman.. This was Gates and Ballmer's first foray giving a firm a ton of money... I'd say that's legendary Not a Cramer fan but he has an amazing pedigree
Yeah... I'm old... but my most successful stocks outside S&P were when I invested where I spent most of my money (Costco, MSFT, Coke, AMZN, etc). It's not even picking... it was jus literally who got the most of my money.
His top stocks for 2025 he constantly mentions are well known. Though it goes against the Jim Cramer bashing of this thread the are NVIDIA (NVDA), CrowdStrike (CRWD),Eli Lilly (LLY),Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL).
Open AI is too indebted to Nvidia through its own deals and MSFT. It won't be able or willing to do something like this.
Honestly my best investments were due to a motley fool article... invest where you spend... I spend my money on Costco, WMT & MSFT. I bank with JPM. Great results.
META, AMZN, and MSFT definitely worth considering.
It kind of breaks my brain how I sold MSFT for $550 months ago and now people aren't willing to pay even $490 for it. Because they have only made more money, and we have had two rate cuts since then.
Puts on MSFT was a good idea like last month. And even then I don't know if it would have moved fast enough to make very much.
windows getting shittier by the day, vibe coded AI shittification in full force; valve releasing a plug and play linux based PC; copilot beyond shit and just shoved in your face constantly and for what? massive investment in openai gonna go to 0. gates on the epstein list. puts on MSFT
Here you go: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16\_6PDPuPxmEGZTDxkKPhovwC55uT6FK6aUpYipaKG5s/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16_6PDPuPxmEGZTDxkKPhovwC55uT6FK6aUpYipaKG5s/edit?usp=sharing) Its not that complicated. I just compare the projected sales growth and historical operating margin with the projected operating profit multiple. The market was overreacted both positive and negative over the last couple of months with NVDA, GOOG and META. I own all three, along with MSFT.
If you bought SPY on Jan 2, you'd be up 17% ytd. If you bought MSFT: 18%. If you bought NVDA: 34%. If you sat on all of your cash til last Monday, and then bought SYM, you'd be up 40%. Just sayin'.
PFE into INTC+NVDA on friday before its earnings into GOOGL into MSFT "timing the market not time in the market" they say, right? (I got a 60% loss on my AMZN call tho, but I dumped it pretty quick at least)
I would wait a little longer. Once you start seeing everyone lining up for silver bars or spamming SLV and talking about it nonstop on r/walstreetbets, I will probably buy puts. Especially inverse r/wallstreetbets is usually free money. Like they hate NVDA, MSFT and AMZN right now so I'm considering calls now.
In the short term, the tech sector and maybe the whole market will drop. Those in the OpenAI's circular web (i.e. MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, AMD) will be hit the most. Well-deserved. In the long term, if AI is not a flop, the hyperscalers won't have to compete as much for data centers as they do now, NVDA won't be able to charge 70% margin on their GPUs. Overall, it will be cheaper to develop AI models, NVDA will be skewed. If AI turns out to be a flop, the tech sector will take a lot longer to recover and the data centers will slowly be used for other purposes. NVDA with its current valuation will be skewed either way.
Ill take the L. The war ain’t finished yet. And MSFT still has stronger cloud growth. Just everyone and their mama is awestruck with Gemini.
MSFT has a large gap down around 420. Once it fills I think it will rejoin the party.
I am not a legal expert, but I know for sure my company allows us to only use Copilot for sw development because of they have a contract with MSFT regarding IP. Google or Apple or any big name company could offer similar service but I guess since they are already using Microsoft products it's easier and cheaper to have one company and use their product. No CEO would ever prioritize quality over legal peace of mind.
Listen to Satya's latest podcast at Dwarkesh. MSFT gave them proprietary MAIA know-how to build upon.
I'll keep my MSFT, thank you. As I did for the last 10+ years.
I believe this is why MSFT negotiated for a *revenue* sharing agreement. They take money right off the top line of OpenAI. However, MSFT also pays OpenAI because they have integrated their service into some of their products. Net-net Microsoft is making more money from OpenAI as of right now.
Top3 best buys ranked in mag7: 1 $NVDA 2 $AMZN 3 $MSFT
MSFT is primarily a B2B business.. their core suite of office products is practically a required subscription for >90% of businesses. Sharepoint is legitimately good. I don’t have the technical knowledge to say if azure is better or worse than AWS or google cloud… but I haven’t seen many complaints… and when a company is building out their tech stack, the immediate need for Microsoft office probably leads many needing cloud services to look at Microsoft. If you invest based upon your own personal preference of consumer goods or services, you should probably just stick to index funds.
I suspect MSFT is getting dragged down by the worries about OpenAI.
No, I think they did due diligence but just saw the new meta for pumping stocks was to announce a deal. Similar to paypal openai deal and target openai deal and soon lululemon openai deal. Too bad it doesn't work anymore. That's why MSFT -15%d. That's why Oracle -30%d. There's no deals, just imaginary contracts lol. Look at CoreWeave's horrendous earnings.
Tell you what ... just go to Gemini or ChatGPT and type into it, "What would the effect on MSFT's stock price be if OpenAI is only worth 40 billlion dollars instead of 500 billion?" You'll get a great answer about the resulting write-down of assets, loss of shareholder confidence, and immediate and massive devaluation of MSFT stock.
If anything, Microsoft will buy the rest of what it doesn't own and its financials will integrate so deeply in $MSFT's books that it would be too difficult and no longer worth tracking. All that would remain would be how much revenue Office 356 is printing
My thoughts are that you probably own MSFT
Buddy….. MSFT is a trillion dollar company ON ITS OWN even without the OpenAi asset. 39% cloud growth is better than 34% from google.
Sold half of my 700c for Dec 12/31 for 3x Sold my other half of MSFT 1/16 500c for 1x Probably will regret it but I’m expecting a pull back next week
... you are completely missing the point ... OpenAI's gigantic (one trillion is what I heard) valuation is *already baked* into MSFT's stock price. If that valuation crumbles, so will MSFT stock. That exposure is gigantic. If OpenAI is worth 40B instead of 1T MSFT stock would tumble into the 300s.
One thing to remember, especially after a big trade, the volatility is what makes you money, not the size of the bet. It is easy to feel like a god after a big trade and increase the risk and get caught with your pants down. Keep the risk small and let the move keep you rich. You always need to stay in the fight. I caught AMD for a little over 40k and I relearded this lesson MSFT. But that's the way she goes!