NTSI
WisdomTree International Efficient Core Fund
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Simplify alternative ETFs - QIS and SPQ. What is this black box quantitative strategy? I love the idea, but hate how its not transparent
How to create a VT like portfolio using ETFs like NTSX, NTSI, AVUV, and AVDV?
Are these good candidates for the ss?
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Fwiw, the hole is that you’re replacing a simple allocation with three timing signals whose thresholds and delays look fitted after the fact. In an IRA I’d pick a fixed NTSX/NTSI allocation you can hold for 10+ years, or stay with VT, because the Fed, CPI, and yield curve won’t reliably tell you when long bonds are about to help.
I roll hard with NTSX and NTSI. For anyone who wants treasuries in their portfolio, these funds are incredibly efficient. Under a normal yield spread, the Treasury futures have positive carry. The yield of the futures is more than the cost to borrow them. The Treasury sleeve of the fund is paying out cash that boosts the fund returns. When the curve is inverted, the Treasury sleeve has negative carry. It bleeds the fund returns. If I understand correctly, you are using the yield curve inversion as a flag for danger in the stock market, at which time you want to load up treasuries to bouy the otherwise crashing stock portfolio. IMO, you need to decide how confident you are that you can predict/time a stock crash like this. If you truly believe your signal is reliable, and you want to shift out of VT to add bonds, that makes perfect sense. But shifting VT to NTS* only sheds 10% of your stock exposure. You add bonds for ballast, yes, but you do so at a time where that bond leverage is particularly and specifically expensive. It seems like the more logical play would be to just drop VT and add VGIT. Believe in your thesis. If you don't think your crash signal is super reliable and you just want to have some modest hedge, then I would argue that logic means you should just carry NTS* all the time. That's me. These funds are awesome. Amazingly tax efficient, too, especially with the massive bond exposure. Throw them in a taxable account and chill. So much to love.
Why would I run NTSX/NTSI in that range? CPI doesn't drop sub 3.5% until September of 2023. One month delay for reporting. Curve un-inverts September 2024. Three month delay to verify it's a true recovery. [https://testfol.io/?s=l1jzThffgMd](https://testfol.io/?s=l1jzThffgMd) \~1% loss. Almost all of that is because we need to wait to make sure it's not a false positive. The previous three times this would trigger are 1989, 2000, and 2006, which is before [testfol.io](http://testfol.io) provides nsx ticker data. All of those ended up in full recessions and my python script sims show they provide pretty significant hedges vs sitting in VT. I'm not advocating for running NTS style funds all the time. I'm pointing out that it seems like they offer a strong asymmetrical hedge in specific macroeconomic conditions - you don't need to cherry pick ranges, you use rules based on interest rates and inflation that reflect how risky the underlying bond futures are.
NTSX and NTSI are not pure stock funds: they already contain Treasury futures exposure. Then you EDV and DBMF and you have a lot of interest rate sensitive investments. Also, While on paper it seems like you have 72% equities, because of the stacked structure it will perform like a balanced portfolio. Given your age and that it's in a roth IRA, I would suggest being more aggressive. You have such a long timeline that you don't need the gold and bond hedges, they will just limit your growth potential.
Couple of points come to mind. 1. Expense ratio: VT is 0.06%, AVUV is 0.25%, NTSI is 0.26%. The higher this, is the bigger the drag on your portfolio over time. Vanguard is often the top choice for low cost. 2. Diversification: I’m not familiar with all these ETFs, but worth checking the underlying overlap if diversification is your goal. This might be better achieved with 3-4 ETFs rather than 8. It’s great you are starting early.
I'd start here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio The bonds are the part that adjust risk level. More bonds equals less risk. Alternatively, a target date (index) fund is effectively the 3 fund concept in a single wrapper, managed for you. They are designed to be "one and done," the only thing you hold. They're fully diversified internally for you. These can be found with expense ratios as low as 0.08%-0.12% for the Fidelity, iShares, Schwab, and Vanguard index based ones. The target date and target allocation funds typically are not recommended for taxable accounts but are fine for tax advantaged. Just about every company would be represented in either the US total market or international market sections of that, or VT (2 letters) covers both stock roles in 1 fund. Then if 100% stock isn't enough for you, there's factor investing (I think I provided those links in another reply already) and possibly the use of certain types of leverage (I myself wouldn't use the 2x or 3x daily, but rather the "returns stacking" ideas like RSSB or NTSX/NTSI/NTSE but you can look into the different types yourself).
It's seems to me that you could essentially Reconstruct this strategy for 0.35-0.40% cheaper by combining together NTSX/NTSI/RLY and maybe some BNDX ?
You are just jealous because you are not part of the elite NTSI Navy Seal Team
40 year old Canadian. Fairly low income. Self directed TFSA @ $35000 USD NTSX 50% NTSI 15% CGDG 10% BTGD 10% KMLM 7.5% DBMF 7.5% $10000 CAD in 5 year GIC, 2 years to go. $25000 CAD in aggressive allocation options in work RRSPs
Read [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1fbi6uc/is_leverage_1x_good_and_if_so_whats_the_best_way/) It basically comes down that you can outperform the market with moderate leverage, but in order to keep drawdowns tolerable you should hedge with bonds or managed futures. You could build your own with something like UPRO+TMF (+VXUS+VOO) or a more direct NTSX+NTSI+NTSE (1.5x 60/40 > 90/60), or RSSB (100/100). Rebalancing is needed, oftentimes done on a quarterly basis. [Illustrative backtest](https://testfol.io/?d=eJy9kEFLw0AQhf%2BKzHmx27SmEBAv4smDgggiJYzZTVzd7NbZbaqE%2FHfHVGqxBHOpe9rhDe9981qorH9Ce4OEdYCshRCRYq4wasgABGin9qat2qCFbCr5CUD1khtXWozGO8hKtEELKDA8l9ZvIJM%2FQ16SfmOfB41kP9iNvLXGVfnGOPW1m8pOwMpTLL01nnEeW3BYf2cb1%2BgQL01jFEOxGmnNUaSZH12hr365R1O8atq6bP%2Bs3sdgahZXmgrtYn9GtxSgCCuG7cQucXp69n6Syslcjs%2B%2BXXM9%2Bq%2F4i%2BtzNt%2BHSPvg3dadjZEOt%2BYDpMnxOJMRlMkYxr7NhZzM%2FqHNxag2Z8NtHoszGUGZDDMuu08EwzUP)
[I asked a very similar question a little while back](https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/s/VNUyxt8xKT), maybe some of the responses will be helpful to you. Take a look at BKIE and BKEM. Also consider NTSI and NTSE which are moderately leveraged but both only hold ~450 companies last I checked.
Consider the traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks (ideally global equities, or just the s&p), and bonds (ideally global bonds currency hedged, or just some other low correlation fixed income asset like Treasury bills or bond index funds like BND). Or, you could leverage slightly that to get returns extremely similar to the s&p500 but with bond exposure to decrease volatility. NTSX is 90% s&p500 with 10% levered futures, so you get 90/60 US large cap / mid term treasuries. If you compare NTSX to the index, it performs extremely similarly but with less volatility. It should outperform in a bear market thanks to the Treasury exposure, and perform similarly in all conditions as long as rates rise expectedly (a sharp increase unexpectedly in interest rates hurts mid term treasuries). It's called the wisdom tree efficient core fund. They also have aversion for international markets, NTSI.
Professional hedge fund managers are often not concerned with beating the market. They're concerned with better risk adjusted returns. They want to beat the risk free rate but at nearly risk free exposures for their clients. Many do try and beat the market, a few do (often not on a risk adjusted basis) most don't. Going forward, consider wisdom tree efficient core! For example, NTSX is 90% s&p500 and 10% 6x leveraged treasuries. Similar to index performance with ideally lower volatility. Pretty cool products (NTSX, NTSI, NTSE).
Its a very modest amount of leverage, 1.5x on a 60% equity, 40% bond portfolio. With NTSX, NTSI, and NTSE, you can have exposure to 90% global equities and 60% US bonds, effectively giving you near market returns with lower volatility. Check out [this article](https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ntsx/) if you're interested.
40 NTSX, 40 NTSI, 10 AVUV, 10 DISV I end up over-allocating to emerging markets in other accounts to compensate - no way am I dealing with that tax drag.
Use of leverage in my portfolio. It took me a while to come around to the idea because leverage has historically exacerbated market crashes and caused all kinds of problems for investors. But rather than using risky margin loans or individual options, the new breed of ETFs that can give retail investors access to low cost leveraged treasury bonds via futures contracts in their portfolio, without sacrificing space for stocks, are very clever and advantageous. I am talking about funds like **NTSX, NTSI, NTSE, and RSSB** (not 3x daily leverage UPRO, TMF etc). Many investors can say that they are aggressive and hold 100% stocks and you can be like yeah I am 90-100% stocks too, but I am also 60-100% bonds. That’s a similar amount of risk/volatility, but with higher expected returns due to better downside protection. These strategies are apt to be less appealing to people these days because of the inverted yield curve and 2022 being the worst correlated decline of stocks and bonds in half century, but their long term expected performance is solid. Judiciously leveraged investing is a proven strategy with hundreds of years of data.
Well it seems you're already aware of NTSX, there's also NTSI. Two new ETFs that add managed futures are RSBT and RSST. For every $1 invested, you get $1 of managed futures and $1 of either treasuries or S&P 500. With just those 4, there are a lot of portfolios you could construct. Let's do 40/40/15/5 of NTSX/NTSI/RSST/RSBT That gives you 51/36/53/20 in US equities, intl equities, treasuries, and managed futures.
60% NTSX; 30% NTSI; 10% NTSE. 90% stocks, 60% intermediate treasuries, globally diversified at close to market weights. Rebalance at least annually in tax advantaged space. [https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/o9proo/the\_case\_for\_ntsx\_and\_chill\_instead\_of\_vtsax\_and/](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/o9proo/the_case_for_ntsx_and_chill_instead_of_vtsax_and/) [https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ntsx/](https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ntsx/)
Interested in capital efficient ETFs like NTSX, NTSI, GDE, etc as a way to get access to a levered portfolio. They are especially appealing over the likes of UPRO, TMF, or TNA because of low expense ratios for what you are getting. I know NTSX has a growing following but has anybody combined these and other similar ETFs to get a nice accumulation style portfolio with a bit of leverage? Maybe an aggressive risk parity style portfolio using these capital efficient ETFs could work as an accumulation portfolio?
You might consider a portfolio with NTSX/NTSI/NTSE to replicate domestic/international (basically a 1.5x 60/40 stock/ITT portfolio) plus a dollop of UPRO or TQQQ to boost the equities a bit. Something like 60/15/10/15 NTSX/NTSI/NTSE/TQQQ is pretty close to what you were proposing (without URNM), which is 122/51 stocks/ITTs. This is only a mild bump over your original stock allocation, with the bonus of additional cushioning from treasuries. I suspect that this would be more efficient and less volatile than what you are proposing. I personally am not concerned about adding in TQQQ or UPRO at such low allocations. Rebalancing is your friend. To be open, I run a 90/10 NTSX/TQQQ portfolio for both of my kids. They are only a little younger than you. If it was for me at that age, I would perhaps be a bit more aggressive. If you decide to keep URNM, the general advice is to have concentrated plays occupy no more than 5 or 10 percent of your portfolio. I would not expect this sector to be very correlated to the other holdings, which may make it a useful diversification. The doubts about uranium upside are real, though; I've watched nuclear languish for decades and I'm a bit cynical about prospects. There is a bunch of activity, so perhaps I'm wrong.
I hold some bond allocation in taxable and the way I avoid taxes is by using [NTSI, NTSX, and NTSE](https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ntsx/) which use 6x leveraged treasuries futures. There’s ordinary income taxes bond distributions because the yield is incorporated into the value of the contract(s), which is taxed as cap gain. Roughly as tax efficient as VTI.
The crowd is not telling you the best option: NTSX/NTSI
Honestly, if you are going to be running a 60/40 portfolio most people should be running wisdom tree's efficient core funds at 90% equities/60% intermediate treasuries (NTSX, NTSI, and NTSE)? That would allow you to maintain a 90% exposure to stocks while getting bond exposure. You could run something like 60% NTSX, 30% NTSI, 10% NTSE. https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ntsx/ https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/ ... cient/ntsx https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/ ... cient/ntsi https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/ ... cient/ntse
Have you considered running wisdom tree's efficient core funds at 90% equities/60% intermediate treasuries (NTSX, NTSI, and NTSE)? That would allow you to maintain a 90% exposure to stocks while getting bond exposure. You could run something like 60% NTSX, 30% NTSI, 10% NTSE. https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ntsx/ https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/ ... cient/ntsx https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/ ... cient/ntsi https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/ ... cient/ntse
Here are three portfolios to consider: 1. 100% VT; 2. 60% NTSX; 30% NTSI; 10% NTSE; or 3. Something like the GingerAle Portfolio with a SCV tilt. https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ginger-ale-portfolio/
NTSX - leveraged 60/40. Instead of 60/40 SPY/US Treasuries, it's 90/60. For every $1 invested, I get $1.50 of exposure. NTSI - swap out the SPY for international stock basket. DBMF - trend following based on matching the performance of the SocGen CTA index. CTA - trend following (like the funds in the SocGen CTA index) SVOL - Sells volatility. Generates a big yield that I use to reinvest. So 36% SPY, 18% intl equities, 36% treasuries, 30% trend following, 5% other for a total exposure of 125%.
Since 'rate my portfolio' is a popular topic, I thought I'd share something a little different. Leverage and trend following, boys and girls. 40% NTSX 20% NTSI 20% DBMF 10% CTA 5% SVOL 5% Cash/Random Picks
Either go: 100% VT; 60% NTSX; 30% NTSI; 10% NTSE (90/60 balanced ETFs that use leverage on intermediate treasuries to reach that allocation); or A diversified basket of ETFs with a value tilt, something like the Ginger Ale Portfolio https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ginger-ale-portfolio/. You really cannot go wrong with any of the above portfolios. My hunch is that portfolio 2 and 3 would result in a higher CAGRs, but there is certainly no guarantee of that.
I'll probably be the lone dissenter versus the 0.05% index fund strategy. Hell, even if you wanted to be extremely passive I'd tell you to go NTSX and NTSI instead. I don't know enough about the FidelityGo product, but everyone should have a life cycle strategy managed by an algorithm. Its fee is certainly reasonable. If it's a good product, stick with it.
Either go: 1. 100% VT; 2. 60% NTSX; 30% NTSI; 10% NTSE; or 3. A diversified basked of ETFs with a value tilt, something like the Ginger Ale Portfolio https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ginger-ale-portfolio/.
0% at the moment. Main portfolio is entirely NTSX. Considering splitting it right down the middle with NTSI
Still not 1.5x levered. I'm not looking to utilize other funds. NTSI/NTSX fit my needs perfectly.
Yeah, frankly I don't want exposure to emerging markets and Im considering overweighting ex-US exposure. I also use NTSX & NTSI which are 1.5x leveraged 60/40 funds.
>Maybe just switch to IBKR and suck up the downsides that go along with that. That will at least give you access to pretty much whatever underlying you want. I think I might just end up doing that and write a program to use their API to set up buys. >That said, I don't know that I would advise an ETF levering up to 90% stocks 60% bonds and then doing a lot of margin borrowing even at a low APR. Especially so if you just want to use this borrowing for lifestyle. >This ETF that you have may do pretty well in a bull market, but it's still going to have very small downside risk mitigation in a major crash. Borrowing on margin could wipe you out. NTSX/NTSI are a lot more stable than just using 100% stocks like VOO. They hold 90% equities and 10% bond futures. I've back tested and the max drawdown are much lower. I would only borrow like 20% on margin so I'm not too worried about getting margin called.
Not day trade, just be able to trade mid day. I was looking at NTSI which is an international large cap ETF with 90/60 stocks and bonds. They are also under Apex clearing which I'd prefer to avoid if possible.
I actually meant VT. I was under the impression that NTSI is mostly North America with partial foreign influence, similar to VT. Is that correct?
NTSI is a very tiny fund. Would stick with NTSX on its own. Not sure why you suggested replacing NTSI for VTI, they don't cover the same areas. Could just add VXUS for your international exposure.