$-0.57 (-0.21%) Today
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Is it bad that I own mostly the lower left quadrant? I know the claim is that S&P is rotating, but do you believe this will continue long enough to matter? Let's say I'm long-term bullish on MSFT and NVDA (lower left)...isn't it better to just keep buying through 2023 when the Fed changes course?
I wanted to average down my $NVDA holding. I know I’m retarded for still using $HOOD app in the year 2022. But in all seriousness, why am I on a restriction? I read their explanation on their website but don’t quite get it. Currently waiting for a response from them to my email.
1k to 1M challenge is off to a huge success. Here are the trades I took today $AAPL 180c 01/7 @ 2.00 > 2.65 (32%) $NVDA 310c 01/7 @ 3.45 > 4.4 (28%) $ABNB 170c 01/7 @ 2.34 > 2.37 SL triggered $AMZN 3450c 01/7 @ 11.15 > 14.95 (34%) $SQ 170c 01/07 @ 0.95 > 1.10 (15%)
Wage inflation will not last forever. We're building robots to drive trucks, run warehouses, lay bricks, and dig mines. NVDA even have AI that can compose music. Housing on the other hand I'm not so sure. The high cost of housing is more of a function of (bad) public policy. Local zoning laws, NIMBYism, and lack of investment in public transportation are key drivers. We could build more houses but we don't.
My boomer mom (born 1951) just started investing a little for fun last spring. I turned her onto NVDA. She bought IBM against my advice because boomer and she can't be up very much on it. She bought COP all on her own though and she's way up on that
With 1000 I would find a medium to small cap company personally. You reference price, but make sure to look at market cap. I’d say NVDA is more likely to double than Microsoft at these caps. If you like NVDA that much I’d personally dump it Into AMD. They are about 1/4 the cap of NVDA and there is nothing but growth ahead for chip makers. Note: Not financial advice.
MSFT is my biggest investment by far. It can drop every day and everyone on here can tell me it's going to keep dropping forever, and I'd still confidently hold it. NVDA is great too, but idk I just like MSFT a lot more. Ironic because I hate Windows. I also notice that NVDA always drops a bit after they announce their new products. So you'd always have a drop every now and then.
I don't like Roku. I am not sure what their long term is. I don't know how how heavy their revenue is. They make money doing ads, audience analysis tools, sodtware/hardware licensing, streaming subs, and selling audience behavior metrics (everyone does this). They are doing good in the smart TV / technology integration market but they pay for it too. I'd personally cut roku and dollar cost down NVDA. Nvidia owns their technology and the value of what they do is much greater than Roku. They're the big dog in AI and datacenter HPC. Crypro miner / retail is far less of their income than their datacenter HPC DPU etc. Add in the fact that Huawei hardware disqualifies you from a large number of govt contracts, Nvidia bought Mellanox and it seems that companies are starting to become more open to SDN and network automation. You can get 100G switches for a fraction of what cisco or Juniper costs. The only alternative really is Nokia or Quanta/Quantamesh/QCT (also a good buy) since they OEM for the rest of the market too. I like Square but i'd rather have a few payment companies. Stripe is killing square right now and has a much more reliable stream focusing on businesses vs consumer transaction processing. I like the idea of owning Visa Mastercard Chase/JPM and AMEX, and some other banks that are on the banking side side. Paypal is a good company but there are a large number of payment processors process through visa to card partners like chase/JPM, CIBC, PNC and tons of of others. Visa, mastercard, amex, and a large number of other providers sell access to their gateways for application back end transaction processing. I also like banks that hold the credit cards for big box stores. CIBC for instance got the exclusive mastercard contract for all of Costco Canada. They have banks in the us and the Caribbean and are scratching and clawing for more contracts. I'm legging out of most of my portfolio. Things don't smell good. I'm kind of sounding bearish but I want to hold maybe 20% in cash so when something does happen I can really lower my DCA.
NVDA is at it below it’s after split price. Great time to get in and you’ll get more shares. MSFT hasn’t had a split in a long time and is overdue. You’d get less shares right now compared to NVDA but it’s also a solid company that should split eventually, creating a situation where you could get more shares.
It was different in a lot of ways, but kinda similar in sentiment I guess. Back then valuations were more reasonable with most large-cap tech stocks selling at about a 30-50% discount to today's valuations. During the sell-off growth tech stocks mostly fell with the rest of the market (although slightly more aggressively) where as today investors seem to think only small-cap growth stocks should be significantly impacted by interest rates and that high PE stocks like MSFT, AAPL and NVDA are safe, which hasn't been true historically. Even bank stocks fell in 2018 where as today they're trading at their highest valuations ever. The sentiment was very similar though, at least here on Reddit. I remember people selling out of stuff that was down and creating posts about how they had made a huge mistake trying to pick stocks. Back then though people were leaving the market entirely because like I say everything was down and people didn't know where to turn. Many thought a recession was practically guaranteed and some were hoping they would be able to get back in after the recession was over, but this obviously didn't happen. Today people are less worried about a recession so perhaps this partly explains why the market overall hasn't been hit so bad. The other thing that was different was inflation and the FEDs messaging regarding hikes. I think a lot of the fear back then came from the FED suggesting that tightening would be on auto-pilot going forward. People felt the FED basically didn't care about the market and would raise rates regardless of what happens. This isn't true today, people generally think the FED is too supportive of the market if anything. We also weren't dealing with record high inflation so there was less urgency to hike back then. Today if markets throw a fit the FED has less room to back down if inflation remains high. The thing that continues to confuse me about today vs 2018 is how strong the overall market is. Given valuations I would have expected the entire market to be down more. Admittedly there has been some weakness in these names over the last couple of weeks, but I'd have thought stocks like NVDA and MSFT would be down more at this point.
Why a binary solution? I’d go 600 or 700 MSFT and the balance NVDA. Both have essential and outstanding products and services for the next stages of the information economy, but while NVDA may grow faster, MSFT will be steady up and dividend will grow.
IMO, people are buying NVDA because it’s a great performer. I assume you have no idea how to assess why their GPU are better than competitors but you probably can see people are using LinkedIn or Xbox or office products. I’d go with what you can assess
I will tell this anecdote again and again lmao. I sold my NVDA right after the split in June last year, thinking I’d buy back in after a sell off. Even after this last “correction” I’d still be buying at a higher price then I sold.
> Spy beat majority of hedge funds over last year and over 10 years is even worse... why fight it? Why fight it? Because historically, the return is more like 12 percent annually or something like that right? Why not put all your money in six different companies like GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, FB, AMD & ADBE. I think those 6 companies combined will outperform the Spy 9 out of 10 years
You have to understand that $1000 isn’t going to turn into $10000 anytime soon even putting it all into one stock like MSFT or NVDA. ETFs aren’t sexy but you’ll likely make a decent return and if the market corrects, it likely won’t hurt has bad in an ETF as it would in something like NVDA. You have to remember that the market doesn’t always go up and if shit hits the fan, your $1000 in one stock could very easily turn into $400 quickly. If I’m buying either MSFT or NVDA I’d go MSFT. But for me I’ve been eyeballing GOOGL as a better tech buy right now.
NVDA is a forever hold. PYPL and SQ are undervalued IMO, but could go down further with tech stocks getting pummeled. I’m not interested in investing in ROKU. The streaming space is incredibly crowded and there’s not that much more growth to be had post-pandemic.
It's relative to its historical self as most things. Stock has a PE ratio of 15 for a year then suddenly jumps to 30 without any change in fundamentals or news then it's an indicator to ask why. A lot of people obsess over it though I think. Like treat is as a fact it has to come back to norm. Sure you can say a stock is overvalued based on P/E but that's to its historical self. If you're right and it comes back to norm fair enough. But if it stays there for over a year at some point it becomes the new norm. Is it always justified at that new norm? Who cares. As long as you understand the risk and downside and make money. Plenty of people make a killing on NVDA and TSLA while all the bears constantly stamp their feet and say you should avoid them.
Lol he’s “bagholding” NVDA at $296… how about having an investment horizon of over 6 months? I’ve been long NVDA two years and I certainly don’t feel like I’m “bagholding” .. same would go for most of the other stocks you listed.. you bought at the very top of a massive rally and now can’t handle a correction.. this is basically why most people can’t make money in the market.. people don’t have the patience to hold a stock for even 1 year let alone 5 which is the minimal time I plan to hold when I go long..
While the global chip shortage remains NVDA will trade at a premium. Once that ends it will return to normality but if they can maintain their course, earning should also increase but the PE ratio should start to look a bit more reasonable.
I'm not saying it will and notice how I didn't even use PG in my response (that's not to say I think V, etc will outpace NVDA either). But again, you used two different calculations of PE, likely to try to bolster your argument. NVDA is already trading at a high valuation. They have 4B in profit but a 670B market cap. Clearly there's a lot of growth built in. When the stock price was above $300 it was pricing in even more growth. I'm heavily in indexes but the individual stocks I own are mostly tech so I'm not against growth and tech. AMD is my highest individual holding so I'm fine with the semi industry. But FCF and EPS calculations would need NVDA, a large and mature company, to perform at very high levels for several years to live up to the valuation. Again, that doesn't mean the price can't keep going up in the meantime, but might not be for everyone.
That's the nature of a bubble. V and MA are value stocks regularly with a PE of 40 too. However, the big difference is COST, V, and MA have PEs around 40, NVDA is over 80. You can't use trailing PEs and then forward PEs for another and call it a fair comparison. If 40 is the new "value" then maybe 80 is growth for someone else. Now compare that to AMD and INTC with PEs of 42 and 11 respectively and I think that makes more sense in the traditional comparison.
It’s the easiest way to value companies in similar areas against each other. Ultimately revenue is what dictates a stocks performance so it’s not the worst metric. I would have used forward P/S if i had the data to incorporate rev growth. Also these are far from mature companies, they are still very much growth plays so u can’t simply compare profit margins on them. The gross margins are comparable across all 4 so reckon that’s fine. Definitely agree NVDA’s growth + margins mean it deserves a higher valuation but compared to big tech hard to argue it’s not overvalued.
I think INTC is a better value then either MSFT or NVDA right now. There’s no reason to believe any of them will be gone in 40 years. In that time, they will all have good and bad leadership, make good and bad decisions, and go up and down. They are all established companies with good moats, so the odds favor all of them doing well during your lifetime. Buy companies you believe will succeed in the long term but are currently undervalued. The tough part is realizing undervalued companies are unpopular at the moment. So you’ll be going against the crowd.
Idk how people think MSFT is a better choice. It's a shit company that works against the interests of its clients and will surely fall when there's proper competition. Same can be said for NVDA but it's not as bad IMO. Don't take my advice though, I'm not speaking strictly from an investing perspective but more so consumer experience.
>XLNX Why do people keep repeating this nonsense? If a stock corrects like 50% you can buy double the amount of stock. So how 'doesn't it matter' in the long run? It's a fact that NVDA is overhyped/inflated. If crypto corrects 70% like it did in 2018 NVDAs revenue probably goes down for a bit and the stock will correct..
My best advice is to stop looking at the price movements and almost completely disregard your unrealized gains and losses. I think that for a retail investor, the best approach is to invest in quality companies with high ROE, a significant moat, a great business model, growth opportunity, consistent growth and reasonable financials - low leverage, enough cash on hand, cash flow, etc. No company will ever be perfect in all these factors and check all the boxes, but you can pick a few that have most of these strengths and a few weaknesses and check a variety of the boxes. Evaluate a business and where you think they might be headed based on their track record (note: I don't mean the history of stock price, but the track record of the business), leadership, and industry trends. Don't ignore the stock price completely, but generally, ignore the short term movements. You won't be able to consistently predict short term performance, but you might be able to pick companies that will grow in 10, 15 years. You will pick winners and losers, but just a few home-runs can greatly compensate those losers. Now, wrt to the stocks you mentioned - I'm not going to give you advice on these specific companies (though I hold SQ and have been interested in NVDA, for full disclosure), but your entry price is almost entirely irrelevant (other than tax purposes), don't decide based on that. If you think these companies at these price levels give you a better opportunity than the rest of the market, don't sell, perhaps even buy more (but ideally, keep your portfolio diversified enough). If you don't, sell. How much you've already lost doesn't change anything, what's important is what happens to the money you still have now.
In the 2000 crash cisco's P/S went from a top of 36.8 to a low of 3.9 and sits at 5.1 currently. The P/S of the other stocks NVDA: 27.7 (expensive), SQ: 3.7 and PYPL: 8.5. Even if those businesses execute as badly as cisco both except NVDA arent that overvalued atm.
NVDA is overvalued for now, wait for it to come down. MSFT is a great company but generally I wouldn't buy a stock at ATH. 1000$ into MSFT won't grow too much. Learn how to analyse businesses and work with stocks that have a market cap of under 10 billion dollars. These are the high flyers if you can actually spot a good company. Remember, BALANCE SHEET BALANCE SHEET AND BALANCE SHEETS. If company produces nothing or next to nothing, forget about it.
I really like $LAC as a long term play, lithium production being brought back to NA and the demand for Lithium will increase exponentially in the coming years. If you have a bigger risk tolerance go with something like this or from your two NVDA (but maybe wait for a lower buy point). MSFT is as safe an equity investment as you can get. Low risk / low reward.
What do the charts tell you? Don’t sell just because you’re down. Sell because the chart says it will go lower. Hold if you don’t care, you’ve done your research, read the 10Q and feel like it’s a great LT hold. I bought NVDA at $180, should I sell now? I’m not because I think it’s a great company. If it drops to $250 I still won’t sell. The only reason you’re thinking of it is because you’re below your purchase price.
>ROKU bought at $260, PYPL at $230, SQ at $180, and NVDA at $297 Your cost basis has nothing to do with whether or not you should continue holding a position. Do you think these stocks have a future? Did the fundamentals stay the same? Is the level of risk on your holdings acceptable? Are they uncorrelated? Has your time horizon stayed the same? If you answered yes to all of these then there is nothing further to consider. If anything other than the first two questions is a no then you may want to change things up but you don't have to.
Fb has a huge regulatory risk. I own and love my quest 2 but I really don't believe FB will be the ones that give us the snowcrash metaverse. I do take your points on valuation, but when it comes to ai, graphics or crypto loads, NVDA is gold and everything else is silver at best.
Wait for a bigger correction. 2022 will have several bad corrections that will be nice time to buy either of these stocks. You could buy either one of them now, and sell once they have a 10 percent pop (especially NVDA). Then sell and wait for the next correction. Rinse and repeat. Just try to get four 10 percent pops this year for it (40%)
In all of the categories mentioned above, their graphics cards are number 1 to do those thing and all of those industry applications are in only growing markets. AI in particular is exploding. Even ignoring the gaming applications which is their bread and butter, ai is a market space that is easily a 10x in the next few years. Tldr; if you believe ai is the biggest growing space in computing, you want NVDA.
Quick comment on NVDA. If the market has 3 or 4 consecutive green days, you might be able to get out of that bag. It would be the easiest bag for you to get out of, of the 4. Of course, NVDA isn't really a bag, it's just your entry doesn't look good because of the recent correction. Stock will continue to be choppy, so getting out of NVDA at $297 on a rally, and then getting back in around $265 might be the better course of action. Everybody's telling you to dump ROKU, but man, you'd take a massive loss by dumping at these prices. I'd try to just hold it until it's in the low 200's again and then bail. If PYPL flirts with the low $170's again, maybe add some more and try to get your cost basis down to around $200 per share. For example, let's say PYPL hit $173.75. How many shares of PYPL do you need to buy at that price, to lower your overall PYPL cost basis to $200 per share? They key with PYPL is going to be some patience though. But it still might make sense to see if you can lower your CB without needing to add a ton of shares. I don't really have any real opinion on Square. I'd maybe add enough shares in the low $130's, to try to get your CB down to $165 and then just hold.
Diversify. If you believe in the stocks you bought than hold them. But put new capital to other sectors. Right now dividend stocks are running. I mean AT&T was down 30% for the year at one point in 2021. Now it's up 20% in about a month. The hope is to have AT&T or $KO run when $NVDA or $PLTR is down and vice versa. But being all in on one sector is so dangerous since many of those stocks trade with the same momentum. I lost over 70% of my portfolio in 2007 being way too leveraged in commodity stocks which were the SPACs / volatile tech stocks of 2005-2008. Some of those stocks have never recovered even in 2022. And you have NO IDEA where the true bottom is at. Tech may rebound Tuesday, or in March or in the year 2024. And if $AMD for example is running and is up 50% it isn't a bad idea to sell 10% and buy a stock in an another sector that is down like $CAT for example.
If you do sell winners do it in small increments and never sell it all. 2% 4% 6% until you get to bigger numbers you’re selling 20% but always keep about 30% I bought AMD at 1.80 and NVDA and sold some AMD at $10, 20 30, 40, 50, 60 70 80 etc. my mistake was selling too much too much at $30-40
I put MSFT higher than NVDA. At the moment both are expensive, but MSFT is less so (PEG of 2.82 vs 3.88). MSFT also has several good business under its belt and a good history of adapting with the current CEO. NVDA has interesting opportunities in mobile and data center CPUs, but the biggest players are also investing to build their own CPUs; their revenue from cryptocurrency projects is also expected to shrink as everyone is switching to proof-of-stake, so no one will need GPUs for mining in a few years…. I am bullish on both, but more so MSFT
The way I trade is a bit different, 5DTE or less on mostly SPY, AAPL, NVDA, and some other caps of that size, intraday only. I prepare a bull and bear scenario for each with support and resistance marked and play breakouts or breakdowns either way