NVDA

TurbodToilet

NVDA dip buyers are relentless

GentrifiedDrip

Called NVDA closing sub 200 today; still calling it

Swiftnice

GOOGL TPU's are so much better for A.I. than NVDA GPU's

soscribbly

So NVDA and GOOGL are suddenly shitters and TESLA is invincibility OK

GentrifiedDrip

God I really should have doubled up my NVDA puts I deserve to be poor

tldamico

When did NVDA go into oil exploration. It's drilling.

Pndapetzim

To give some perspective: Q1 $4B, Q2 $11B, Q3 $17B That's $31B revenue this year so far, and (I think conservatively given Opus 5.5's strong showing) another $23-24B Q4 to round out the year with about $54-55B in realized revenue. Given the way bookings work they're probably looking at a annualized run rate of about $100-120B at the end of Q4 going into 2027 against commitments of about $180B/yr going forward. Even if their growth plateaus next year you're probably looking at them exceeding those annualized commitments before year end: most of which they probably won't need to call upon until later in the 5 year period 2029-31 anyway. In short, Anthropic looks like they'll cross over into full profitability comfortably next year and the question then shifts to: well, sure you're profitable now but are you $2T market cap profitable? There's actually a lot of growth they need to do over that $180B/yr commitment rate to justify that much valuation. Most IPOs in recent history with big starting values have struggled to maintain that value and taken over a decade to show any return to investors. So the odds are against them... but none of those companies went into their IPO with Anthropic's growth rates. We're talking NVDA numbers and even NVDA didn't start doing NVDA numbers for like, almost 20 years. I've been looking for some shifting of the needle for firms employing this tech this quarter. The products should be good enough at this point to see something and that's really the hurdle that needs to be crossed - if they do, that $2T valuation may not be a pipe dream. But so far there's nothing really detectable that I or anyone else can find. Maybe it's the Iran War fucking with 2026 economy and the growth that might have resulted all went to oil? But banking on hypotheticals there is not the smart way to go about things. So far it's looking like all this AI spending is neither dragging nor yielding substantive returns... and for $2T you'd expect SOMETHING. Near as I can figure the dream is that the next 5 years spending are basically locked in and look tentatively tenable: if you compare current frontier capability with where things were in 2024 it's night and day between Opus 3/GPT4.5 and where things are now. Those were toys: these models are tackling serious problems. Its hard to imagine what 2028 frontier capability is going to look like and that's only midway through the 5 year spend cycle that's been setup.

prana_fish

Instant $NVDA hits convenient round number $210 on 15 minute timeframe, NQ starts reversing next candle. Market like a toddler with it's me likey round numbah.

GentrifiedDrip

NVDA gonna have to break 212 to make my cock move. Otherwise I’m doubling my puts during this dead cat bounce

TurbodToilet

And there’s the NVDA pump

TurbodToilet

NVDA plunge protection team is working overtime

GentrifiedDrip

NVDA closing sub 200

Open_Pollution_8038

Full send bruh, if the market wants to have cash flow machines that are growing rapidly (NVDA, RDDT, MU, etc) I will take it. They should tech better math in America.

ghostmodeho3

anyone else think NVDA is going down today? Or is it me?

Doktor_knowitall

that doesnt make sense couldnt you say the same for NVDA which is up now?

TurbodToilet

Lmao why are they trying to pump NVDA so hard

BodyShort1993

NVDA puts

GentrifiedDrip

About to double up on my NVDA puts while they’re cheap

f0king

Was between buying NVDA or TSM at their lows on Friday before close... Went with TSM, which of course is dumping all of its recovery while NVDA keeps going up. Nice 1 regard.

gokulzuzumaki

wtf NVDA

JennaTollwarts

NVDA is invincible

shindiggaa

if you bought a share of NVDA 1 year ago, you would have made $2

Striking_Course_5763

Yeah it still gains value as NVDA drops toward your strike, just slower than something closer. That's just delta. A put that far out is probably sitting around -0.2 or -0.3, so a $1 move in the stock only adds like 20-30 cents to the option. Gets better the closer it gets though. The real killer is time. Theta is chewing on it every single day. So you can be right on direction and still lose if it drifts down slow. IV crush makes it worse. Pull up the actual delta and theta on your broker before you buy so you know what a $1 move and a day of waiting actually does to it. Those far OTM ones expire worthless all the time even when the stock moves your way. Not financial advice.

Janubeary

If NVDA misses all hell.is going to break lose

Ambitious_Snow840

Both received investments from NVDA. They're positioned to do well.

Spac55

What a week—the Fed’s FOMC, major earnings, tax-loss selling & oil prices, Vix Most of the institutions & big funds did tax-loss selling,closed the book by October end Ready for $NVDA earnings spike $MU reported $52 Billion revenue Next $SPX $NDX $QQQ $XLK $XLC seasonal spike

bootsupondesk

Really NVDA?

Spac55

Other big companies spending to buy NVDA -GPU When other companies earnings drop, big spike in NVDA revenue

Spac55

Buybacks 250 Billion next 8 weeks On Top NVDA earnings spike big

Reply_Stunning

# BREAKING: Iranian leadership is begging for peace Ayatolla has pledged 3 trillion dollars for an orbital data center project with NVDA and Anthropic - details to be revealed after midterms

Top_Lychee2336

2027 is shaping up to be biggest step change in AI power density yet: • $NVDA Rubin Ultra \~500kW per rack • $AMD MI500 \~1,000kW per rack • $AMZN Trainium4 \~330kW per rack • $GOOGL TPU v9 \~200kW per rack

Spac55

$NVDA 230-240 At strong earnings coming

504Kris

So there’s a chance my 10 SPY $760 calls have a chance? 🥲 Also bought 5 NVDA $205 Calls.

Vlisa

Bought some NVDA shares on Ebay, but I think they might be Chinese knockoffs. Should I send them to a stock grader to verify?

Valkyrie_Skuld

Imagine if They don't like AAPL NVDA and AMD's earnings we're fucking cooked

Slow_Lion_4178

>Let’s say I buy an NVDA put with a strike price of $195 and the price is currently 205 but going down. From the moment that I buy, will I still be making money from price going towards my strike price, even if it’s still significantly far from it? Since no one bothered to even express the necessary allow me: The answer is that **it is relative to the probability distribution for the likelihood of moneyness at expiration**. If the put is long-dated, let's say 6 months, the delta will react dramatically more effectively, and the theta decay will be significantly less, than if it were for a week away. **When you pay for extrinsic value of any sort you're paying for the probability distribution relative to expiring worthless** which doesn't really require anything but delta to understand. All options can be expressed in simple English sentences: "If I buy the 195 put and I need the price to move $10 in 24h how likely is that to occur?" vs "If I buy the 195 put and I need the price to move $10 in 180 days how likely is that to occur?" One is very unlikely. The other is practically guaranteed. Guess which one has greater sensitivity to delta and lower sensitivity to theta.

FutureSage

NVDA 210 by 9:45 plz

SpiderWil

I beat it last 2 year when I dumped every penny into NVDA blindly and did not check it for 2 years

KittyLover-7

I genuinely don’t get it, like I’m supposed to believe traders with big money are buying this at this valuation and simultaneously selling NVDA, googl, AMZN, AMD and so many other names on Friday because of reasons like valuation, CAPEX, cash flow How the fuck do they just decide to move the goalposts on it

Pension2options

Due to selling exclusively naked puts, I rarely force myself into a position--my recent "horrible" entry was in Jan with ADBE: held it for about 6 months before exiting with 50% gain (220P STO at $309; dropped to Low $190...yea....; on up swing BTC at $252). The math was still in my favor: 220P x 20% = $4,400 held in collateral which would earn $154 INT (SPAXX 3.5%) in 12mo or $77 in 6mo, but I realized $239 in 6mo. Cutting losers is not my trading style (EL and NVDA \[and SCHW\] got called away; same will be with DUOL): https://preview.redd.it/z3nnyhqqy3zh1.png?width=985&format=png&auto=webp&s=877897e11bc713e66391adccef3005c06b24ba21

Perk_i

What if AI has already taken over the NASDAQ's computers and keeps pumping NVDA and AMD so they'll keep making chips to feed the AI?

Cc-on

Send NVDA back to 213 please and thank you!

NiceCreamSundaes

Not sure🤷 In my opinion, since you have that spread of safer ETFs in your Roth and are young you can afford to take risk. NVDA and AMD as chip designers are probably in one of the safer areas of the trade. My personal crackpot theory is that the bubble is in the AI frontier labs, I don't think they'll be able to realise high margins with the requirement for constant spending commitments and a low moat. That doesn't mean the chip designers won't still be selling a ton of chips and capturing the value though.

Charming_Raccoon4361

early NVDA like 20 years?

1foxyboi

I’m an early NVDA and RKLB guy, have +1000% on both

klipsetrades

As others have stated, it depends. But yes, potentially you can. The catch is you can get the direction right and still lose money if the move is too slow or implied volatility falls enough. Moving toward your strike helps, but doesn’t guarantee a profit. Theta (time decay) is one of the bigger greek enemies of long options. It's a good idea to learn the greeks and understanding how they affect the mechanics of options. And OTM doesn’t mean the option has zero value. Your $195 put can increase in price with NVDA still above $195. If it expires at or above $195, though, the put is worthless

KittyLover-7

Ok then NVDA and AMD back to the price they were at open on Friday, quite a few others too

SangerGRBY

Its joever. AI? Its a fugazi. The billions invested ? Evaporated. AMD is now back to Advance Money Destroyer, NVDA compromised by Chinese Honeypot. QQQM and VOO are cooked, Mr Mango destroyed the US markets, i will only be investing in the NEXT MARKET GIANTS.

sstarlight_q

Depending on the expiration date, but tbh the best strike you can buy is the one closer to be ITM in NVDA if you buy expiration for the same day

FutureSage

NVDA 210 tomorrow??

Agile-Year-742

I love looking at the clowns here who check there stocks every month. Look at the top 5 in the s&P NVDA MSFT APPL AMZN GOOGL If you invest monthy into any of these 5 of your choice and did so for a 5 year period, doesn’t matter where you pick, highest or lowest….you’d still in green. Even during the dot com bubble, even during covid, even during what people thought was the “end of the world”….. 90% of traders lose money because they sell. INVESTORS win. You all here are traders, please go to wall street bets if you’re selling top performers of all time just because of a 5% drop…. DCA is a thing….:

Captain_Forge

I mean it's less this specific event and more that NVDA is -1% over Y/Y

winston511

I frequently come on here and give out poor financial advice but I really think we continue to bleed until somebody NVDA or the US gov buys more shares in Intel or neoclouds to sure up the market with some artificial confidence, no pun intended

crispetas

Google (AMZN and to a lesser extent NVDA) have probably more interest in ANT succeeding than they themselves.

No_Feedback4998

buy short dated NVDA puts maybe.

option-trader

Yea, some people don't really understand the facts. The Mag7 have cash up their ass. In fact, there were so much cash that 5 of them started spending it wildly. MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, and NVDA are throwing cash everywhere to see where it sticks.

thetalentedmrbowser

In ten years time we’ll all be laughing about the AI bubble and why we thought dumb chat bots were going to be the next big thing. NVDA will be nothing more than a retro T-shirt logo like Atari or Betamax

apple-sauce

Nah. It will impact also NVDA… is AMD misses we smoked

bruceNook

I'd be early if I said to do anything about it like sell. I'm just explaining the current valuation that the thread was asking. No one's gonna pay a 20PE on NVDA if there's no expectation of 20 years of at least these earnings. You think people in 1999 thought they were late to the party? No, boards were full of people validated by how high the market was and thought the gains would keep coming. But again, I'm not suggesting anyone to do anything. Hold or double-down if you want, it's your money.

moatandmargin

I agree the demand looks real, and I'm holding NVDA, MSFT and GOOG through the swings. I'd just be careful timing it off sentiment, since fear can stay high longer than you'd expect. For me the better signal is whether the big buyers keep growing cloud revenue fast enough to justify the spend.

TooniesForTalent22

I don't like the business model because of the lack of moat, and the flooding of supply. I am not convinced at all this can be profitable. There are extremely high compute costs , and token maxing is done, prices are dropping already, revenue growth is slowing. I prefer investing in businesses that won't have competitors that can almost copy my product at a fraction of the cost. I'm not telling you not to invest, go for it. I was interested in NVDA at 170, sold at 225 and other than that have very little interest in that part of the market, there are other plays. It's been extremely profitable so far and I am holding companies that allow me to sleep well at night.

PxddyWxn

MRVL, LITE, SPCX, NVDA, AMZN, APP, RKLB, CMPS, PL To name some of them

Super_Highway_3405

Yes and no. Things tend to pop when the fed tightens; Warsh is a hawk anyway and would be reducing the balance sheet if he didn't inherit a clusterfuck.  The market has been happy to compress NVDA ratios and sit them below 20 forward for awhile. AI will probably still be a narrative to stick with even in a bear market, but those that have to borrow at high rates will either have to execute at a high level for years or get eaten. No, I don't think a bear market is here, I figure there's at least gotta be a rally between now and FOMC.  Also, lol Iran deal, I forgot you said that. That shit's coming right after our $5,000 checks. The inflation problem is likely much deeper than oil and it shows on the long bonds, but that's kind of irrelevant for now.

livingbyvow2

I think NVDA isn't really the issue here. The problem is that they are at the mercy of the hyperscalers squeezing them anytime they feel like it. For now they are likely playing nice because their growth is feeding their cloud growth, and they will get a nice pump to their net income through equity appreciation when they IPO (which is why they aren't being too aggressive rn and letting them run with the prize). The real risk is that they stop being such a major contributor and/or Cloud growth at the big guys starts diversifying away from Ant. Then if I were them I would just jack up how much I charge them for compute to eliminate a competitor and absorb their margin (remember the Bezos quote). The company appropriately lists this under risks, and is taking the right steps, which includes funneling the 200B+ cash they will have post IPO into building their own compute (which they already did through their Broadcom deal). That will be a massive drag on their cash flow as it will take a ton of Capex. This also means that while this is currently an asset-light business, they will turn into an asset-heavy, leveraged business in the coming years...

humus999

True but global demands for LLM inference are larger than demands for training. Huawei's chips are less efficient but also much cheaper (NVDA has huge margins on each chip). There will be more competitors. So it's not that clear whether NVDA will keep it's position longterm.

humus999

Everyone gets compute where they can but it doesn't mean that without NVDA they'll be screwed. Chinese models increasingly rely on domestic hardware and Chinese government is heavily supporting them to do so. NVDA doesn't have monopoly anymore and their position is going to get worse.

ObservationalUnit

Yeah bro. Deepseek doesn't have like 50k illegal NVDA servers they smuggled in through Singapore. Trust me bro.

Middle-Percentage816

Bro really did a whole DCF model on Anthropic just to realize Jensen is taking all the profit while compute costs eat everyone alive through 2030, calls on NVDA it is.

factsoverfeelings89

I’d be more worried if it was a continuous slow sell off, the fact that it has been so quick means there will either be a dead cat bounce allowing for exit or it will bounce back if NVDA earnings are good.  

bruceNook

Playing devil's advocate, at 13PE, it's only cheap if earnings will stay at or above this level for 13 years. I'm not sure that people realize the financing limits tech is slowly reaching. NVDA's customers are now piling on debt, so I think it's a bit ambitious to think chip sales will stay high for that long.

Upstairs_Whole_580

That's true. I've only ONCE used leverage... and it was on Vanguard at 10%... which is just too much. I think another reason people may be more nervous is all the bearish AI narratives... so much so that even with SKHY and when NVDA inevitably comes in at 115B, guides for 125B, it's still not going to move the stock as much. We're at ~13X F28 earnings. Shit is getting cheaper.

Zipski577

Makes sense. I'm sure AAPL earnings on Monday will be a big signal as to whether we continue/ reverse. It's now the largest company in the world again after NVDA drawdown. I haven't gotten the chance to dive into the specifics of what street is looking for on their report but off the top of my head, new iPhone sales might be a big piece and I cant imagine they have been great.. dont know a lot of ppl who were super excited to get the foldable one and a lot of trolling online lol. Ive seen that there is a lot of shares from leveraged ETFs that need to be sold, haven't looked into that much either. Historically stocks have rebounded well after mid term elections but no idea what to expect, a lot is happening

haze_from_deadlock

The plan is to wait for the IV to drop for a few days and then buy puts on trash like GOOG and NVDA again

Ok-Bed-9804

Hold the DRAM and the IREN. Get rid of IREN as soon as you breakeven or get profit. There's a chance neoclouds can come back but they're the most exposed to the growing circular AI debt. If the AI trade does bounce, memory is the king. There is no AI trade without memory and NVDA. Don't know the rest of these names

TheIslandLifeSucks

You just wait for Nvidia earnings report. Jensen will show up with the slickest leather jacket, claim AI will make us immortal. NVDA : +28% SPY : +10% QQQ : +22%

Spac55

BigTech are global companies. They have a big cash flow, generating from consumers using them globally AI companies don’t need government bailouts. They can modulate their spending, don’t need government money at all. All adopt AI use; $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $MU $KLAC $TSM all go up

sciuridae

i thought i caught the bottom on NVDA last week but it kept falling like a knife so now we are all baggies together

Draft_Gods

They’ve taken on \~30B in debt to fund a stock buyback and the market hasn’t batted an eye because their earnings look good. But their earnings has been distorted by investment gains in Anthropic/MSFT/NVDA for 4 consecutive quarters, propping up EPS and masking an inflated P/E. At their next ER (their first “clean” quarter in over a year), I’m expecting a correction when the market sees underwhelming operations.

one_day_I_will_do_69

Usually the pro's have an interest in a field and don't mind spending years building models, reading 10-k's or whatever, be curious. you should know why you're doing something, if you don't make sure you have a tight stop loss. Or chase what everyone else is doing (NVDA) and hope shit works out

Aggravating-Mud-5275

Valuation are some of the lowest in many years(google, NVDA, etc).

puzzleimpossible83

Don’t think NVDA has to cook their books.

nobaddays2320

So about 2 years ago the Chinese said they had some super fast chip that would run as fast as NVDA chips at a fraction of the cost. Which tanked the market overnight. What happened to the chips? did the Ai agents take them out?

realribsnotmcfibs

NVDA laptops are $$$$. The ones released so far are 6-7k. The lower ram ones may be a real winner but as others said it is windows arm. A software known historically for being ultra trash even by windows standards. Apple really has the affordable laptop market on lock. Their OS works and isn’t so heavy. They can bin old iPhone chips and shove them in their Neo generation after generation. I have a high end desktop at work and home …but if I’m not gaming or doing CAD work I use my MacBook 10/10 times.

Zipski577

Yea until you start seeing posts where people are saying that they wish they never invested in tech stocks, or the market at all, AAPL, now the largest company in the world again, reports on Monday after the bell. NVDA reports on the 17th. If 1 or both of those companies follow the trend of META, INTC, GOOGL, AMZN, etc, then we could be in for a lot more pain and suffering. Then again, they could reverse the negative sentiment entirely. Different subsectors of the market also stand to benefit from different outcomes in the midterm election cycle next week (sentiment wise, at least). Vaccine makers JNJ, MRNA, and PFE got slammed when RFK was approved to become HHS and it never actually changed anything for those businesses. Not to mention Iran war/ Trump tweets have more influence on market direction than they ever should have, but unfortunately the reality. Who knows what will happen, lot of noise and earnings left to be reported. And reverse Reddit sentiment tends to be a highly accurate signal lol. When there’s a lot of bullishness/ bearishness = chop. Overly pessimistic = bull market continues. Overly bullish = down we go.

Zipski577

Hahaha my exact thoughts seeing these posts. We are currently in an equity market where a huge portion of the participants have never experienced an environment that “buying the dip” doesn’t work exceptionally well almost immediately. Retail trading/ investment activity skyrocketed in 2021-2022 and has been high ever since. Liberation day and the start of the Iran war this year made people’s confidence in the strategy even stronger. I’m not saying it won’t continue to work right now. A lot of things have changed, and Trump announcing a peace deal or some shit could make the market bounce back out of its downtrend like it did in the end of March, despite not being true at the time (in fact, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t try something like this as soon as Monday ahead of Election Day/ voting). But am I shocked to see massive tech companies like Intel lose 30% on earnings announcement? No, because the exact thing was happening in the opposite direction earlier this year. It was never normal for massive companies like DELL/HPE/ INTC/ AMD to make a 30% move in minutes. When these things happened the idea that they could also lose just as much, or more, on one report became very realistic. Big tech companies are now making single day moves that used to be reserved for small cap, clinical stage drug companies on trial readouts. If AAPL follows the trend of the other companies on their earnings report Monday, and NVDA on the 17th, the market will be in trouble given they combined make up 14% of the S&P 500 right now. We’ll see what happens but I’d reckon a day will come eventually that simply “buying the dip” blindly (which is not the same as DCAing btw) will kill a lot of ppl who have been led to believe it’s a full proof strategy

Xdddxddddddxxxdxd

“What I’m wondering is whether investors are starting to pay more attention to how much money these companies actually make, rather than just how much they are growing.” Are you implying NVDA does print money??

RepresentativeQuit18

There was a Lambo or Ferrari in NYC with license plate 1TRADE. Yours should be NVDA; depending where you are it might be available. 

alex_on_redd1t

NVDA launching laptop doesnt scare apple shareholders one bit ?

xopizzaguy

Read above. In the hands of AAPL n NVDA

Gyngerbredman

Honestly nobody knows short term with all the noise right now. What I'd focus on is anything down 90% with 3 weeks left needs a huge move just to get back to even. I'd probably close the worst ones and keep whatever cash is left for the next trade. Next time try smaller size and more time on the contract so one bad month doesn't wipe it out I mostly Trade SPX 0dte, NVDA, and TSLA

pussy_ass_licking

The only thing that is in a bubble is spy. Every tech stock looks so undervalued. It’s hard to digest that NVDA is trading at 14 forward pe

Spac55

What a week—the Fed’s FOMC, major earnings, tax-loss selling & oil prices, Vix Most of the institutions & big funds did tax-loss selling,closed the book by October end Ready for $NVDA earnings spike $MU reported $52 Billion revenue Next $SPX $NDX $QQQ $XLK $XLC seasonal spike

Final-Housing-6420

I did the same, bought a 2024 Huracan brand new  Then it had problems and I sued Lamborghini.  Got paid $100,000 settlement, kept the car and it didn’t get a lemon on the title.  In hindsight though, I wish I did NOT actually sell my NVDA. I sold about 120k worth for the down payment. If I could go back, I would have just borrowed against my NVDA shares instead of selling. 

ItalianV4

yes, pluses and minuses. to bring it back, I got into NVDA at around 20 and capped my gains at 75 (sold covered calls and the stock ran away from me). got to bury those talents.

DrHarrisonLawrence

“The best moat in AI is to have money coming in so you can keep building more” Is that NVDA, AMD & CRWV then? u/Lord\_\_\_Rictor

Cash_Option

NVDA license plate?

When_moon_and_Lambo

Good question. Delta already moves the strike further out when IV is high, so a .20 on a 100% IV stock is a lot further away than a .20 on NVDA. What it doesn't account for is gaps, and RDDT is the proof: low delta, still blown through. So right now it just flags it and the sizing is on me. My rule is the 100%+ IV names get half size or less, and I skip them entirely if earnings land inside the expiry. Honestly, adjusting size automatically by IV is something I should probably add.

No-Poem9996

Low delta in a stock with 100%+ IV is not the same risk as low delta in NVDA do you adjust strikes or position size for IV or just flag it?

zendaddy76

I usually look at forward pe and 250 day moving average. If macro environment looks ok, I add to my positions where I have conviction. But this is in my Roth and I’m holding for at least 10 years. I started doing this in 2016 and have outperformed VT by 82% in my “play money account” (which I limit to about 100k). You can’t win them all, but the pullbacks in 2018, 2020, 2024 (tariff tantrum) and 2025 (Iraq war) did wonders for my individual positions. That said, 90% of my investments are in VT or TDFs. This year I’ve added to MRVL, AMD and TSM in April, CRWD in July, MSFT in August, and Google and AMZN on Friday (first time buying AMZN). I still hold AAPL (my first stock pick in 2016, followed Buffet) and NVDA from 2020. Play the long game and be patient. I’ll be retiring 3 years early bc of my winners. 👍🏽

General-Lie8709

Comments think a guy who’s been holding NVDA for 6 years (after all the hype and gloom surrounding it) is gonna regret this. I’m sure he’s got his finances in order and this was a calculated decision. Hell yeah dude. Enjoy it