NVDA

Swagnoor

Yeah I guess that's why $NVDA is not continuing to make an exponential move anymore. Market might be realizing this.

Zipski577

That doesn’t really tell you anything about the next 4+ quarters at all. 88% beat expectations in 2021 but the S&P declined by -20% the next year, which was its worst year since the 2008 financial crisis. Also not sure how that’s relevant. The Mag7 comprises 40% of the index. The bottom 250 companies (half the index) make up 8% of the index. What they do makes an immaterial difference to return or ratios that are calculated as a weighted average. The bottom 400 stocks make up 23% of the index. The top 50 make up 64% of the index and top 25 make up 53%. So 90%-99% of S&P 500 companies could “beat expectations,” and it would still be detrimental to the index’s overall performance if the ones that missed were the top 5-50 companies. NVDA PEG is 0.37 currently. If the index has a P/E of 1.22, that means that S&P 500 ex-NVDA PEG is around 1.3. If NVDA PEG went to 2.0, then the index’s PEG would be 1.357 roughly. Also, in 1999 the PEG ratio was 1.2-1.3… so growth was over-forecasted and the ratio skyrocketed when ‘expectations’ were revised down.

VitaliiNoskov

You're right that NVDA has become a proxy for AI capex sentiment rather than just a single-company story. The 65.5% revenue growth and 64.7% net income growth in FY2026 reflect a broader infrastructure buildout cycle. What's interesting is the earnings quality: operating cash flow of $102.7B essentially matches net income of $120.1B. This isn't a company booking future revenue or using aggressive accounting — it's getting paid upfront for GPUs that ship 12-18 months out. The macro sensitivity you mention is real though. At a 36x P/E (27% premium to tech sector median), NVDA needs both continued AI adoption AND stable rates. Any liquidity tightening hits growth multiples first. Are you watching the China export control impact? The $4.5B H20 inventory charge was material, but the bigger risk is long-term market access.

savingstrainagain

The same mindset that allowed me to make money on puts stopped me from investing for a long time. I didn’t snap out of it until I saw NVDA and was convinced it was about to change the world

AccountOfMyAncestors

In this hypothetical where Google buys out Anthropic, that increases Google’s bargaining power against NVDA and other infrustructure supply chain companies. Better bargaining power = better price negotiating to Google’s benefit.

anakin12

I am still short NVDA how fucked am I ? Scale 1 -> yes

FatFluffyFish

AI investment validated. NVDA 500 EOW

Samjabr

Friend, I said, "China adds to the supply of **cheaper** consumer memory" [https://www.reddit.com/r/pcmasterrace/comments/1povjfp/nvidia\_to\_cut\_gaming\_gpu\_production\_by\_3040/](https://www.reddit.com/r/pcmasterrace/comments/1povjfp/nvidia_to_cut_gaming_gpu_production_by_3040/) Something similar happened with NVDA gaming cards when AI took off. Nvidia has shifted production away from gaming to AI as much as possible without completely alienating the gaming community that they built their business on. The reason is obvious - higher profit margins. It's why the gaming card prices are so retarded. A lot of these production lines are fungible and lots of companies have existing commitments through contracts. If someone else can fulfill that demand, then it allows the more advanced processes to be used on higher end chips. [https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260519PD228/samsung-memory-chips-demand-2028.html](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260519PD228/samsung-memory-chips-demand-2028.html) I'm not claiming this is happening now. Just linking a story. But even a former head of Samsung is pointing out the obvious - If all the memory makers are expanding capacity, building new FABS (TSMC, Samsung, etc.), eventually supply & demand will come closer into equilibrium, and prices will fall. This is the nature of the cyclicality of memory/disk makers. It has always been this way. The Chinese firm CXMT saw revenue go up 700% - That had to come out of someone else's revenue stream/orders. It's not magic. Just math.

Former_Island_4730

Compare it to NVDA over the same time period in the animation you reposted. (Spoiler alert: NVDA has more than doubled BTC’s performance from 1/1/19 - 12/31/25)

Huge-Description3228

Even then, the numbers are fake and not directly from operations. These companies (except the shovel sellers like NVDA) are bleeding out free cashflow. Even taking on insane amounts of debt 😅

savingstrainagain

I flipped 20k into 700k during march 2020 with puts, paid taxes waited till 2024 to get back into the market rode NVDA up to 1.4 mill

BedBubbly317

It’s not what that means because that wasn’t the price. That’s your value with only a $67 investment. Unless you think NVDA is also trading around $1200/share currently

CallMePickle

Now do SX Hynix. NVDA is old news.

RuMarley

Don't worry, NVDA will crash, hard, too. Once OpenAI goes bankrupt.

option-trader

Yes. This is what these uneducated people on here have been implying. I had a whole argument with one person that said NVDA was doing some financial tricks. He said NVDA added mixed chip sales back into overall sales. I told him it would be considered fraud if that happened and the big 3 accounting firms would not sign off on that. There's a lot of these uneducated people just throwing stuff out like they have completed an accounting or finance degree.

CheffromNowhere

US Tech 100 ripping. NVDA is gonna blow faces off tomorrow

Throughlifeanddeath

What is NVDA at right now can someone tell me?

X211499Reddit

NVDA should be worth at least $300

No_Technician7914

Need NVDA to open at 230 tomorrow for a bailout :(

m00nk3y

Didn't $NVDA split x6?

Zipski577

Key word “expectations” Right now growth expectations are based on assumption that GPU/ chip demand sustains forever being that NVDA is 8.2% of the index. If any crack surfaces in that the PEG goes higher.. not to mention the ripple effect when the current ‘demand’ is being driven by all the companies right behind them in market cap

Bagholder147

Any news on why they are up? I know NVDA has their claws in it.

billppp

NVDH to make money on NVDA today via Canada

Junesathon

Follow QQC.TO , MU.NE , AMD.NE , NVDA.NE. They going up on the CAD market right now

yang2lalang

The thesis is valid, as usual you could question the timing Where is the money to buy NVDA chips and MU RAMs gonna keep coming from Hyperscalers? They are already cash flow negative Q1 2026 and are issuing bonds outside the US to cover the pig balance sheet with lipstick Are the hyperscaler customers going to spend enough money to return cash on all the hyperscaler spend? Where is the money going to come from? SAAS companies declared dead due to llms? Consumers with negative real wages since COVID? China with HUAWEI chips ? Game hobbyist who used to be strong NVDA supporters but are now a footnote compared to the size of NVDA? Where is the money to keep buying NVDA chips that depreciate in 5 years going to come from? It may help to ask an llm to give an answer and buy some leaps to the downside I agree that the worst thing to happen to the market will be openai and anthropic going public, it will show the whole world just how unprofitable they are at the moment, all due to NVDA The whole point of llms is to increase efficiency and reduce the need for more compute, they are inherently deflationary, so stock prices should come down for companies who will experience this earnings deflation And no, you cannot replace Engineering with a probabilistic model, it's a joke

rsanchan

Gov has disclosured the existence of aliens and that they are buying NVDA.

CaptainSt0nks

Look how much the world has changed since the end of covid. I fully expect NVDA and GOOG to race to $10T within the next 2 years. RKLB to $1T.

CaptainSt0nks

NVDA is low key a value play now with gigantic future in robotics, self driving and other shit.

dljmonkeyboiz

NVDA a boomer stock now

WiseIndustry2895

How are bears on life support? Last week NVDA was at $236 now it’s at $215.

Gamer6322

MCHP for me. MU is a a bit too high. AMD and NVDA are too high too

zitrored

People will money flow into whatever is the latest trend. The SP500 maybe losing steam, look at MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, etc. they are not making new highs anytime soon and they are a big chunk of the stocks that go into SP500 index value. You have some lower weighted stocks that might push a bit higher but they are stretched too, and don’t affect the index as much as the top weighted stocks do. It all needs to probably wait until next earnings quarter reports to see what happens next.

SuperNewk

Reminder the holy trinity of IPOs coming is not the top. It’s fresh meat in a starved market only playing NVDA

are_videos

yup, and TBH he would of probably sold the NVDA WAYY before it was remotely close to todays value

elboberto

Some yes some no. NVDA trading at a forward PE in the 20s. MU forward PE around 8. If datacenter buildouts continue at this pace through 2030 then these AI infra stocks are actually underpriced.

yeeetcoin

The list of companies wanting their tech is already AAPL, META, AMZN and indirectly NVDA.

Bagholder147

Post Quantum Encryption, Contract with Lockheed, 6G partnership with NVDA and T-Mobile.

youngdk1

**67 NVDA shares would be 8,040 shares today** based on historical splits since you sold.

colts_guy

The whole story is whether the earnings are actually showing up behind the capex spend. That's what mattered in 1999. Back then spending ran way ahead of profits for years, which is what turned it into a bubble. Right now NVDA just put up $81B in revenue against roughly $740B in announced capex commitments. That's a very different setup. I think your point on semiconductor pricing is the right thing to watch though. If we start seeing real pricing deflation across the space, that's probably the canary in the coal mine. Until then, the fundamentals behind this cycle are real. This is also why SMH is my largest holding. I believe!

boofpack123

Oh. Im still bullish AMD but i just dont think they will ever get close to NVDA in the long term. I bought AMD during tariff crash at $119 avg, got out in the $430s. kinda regret bc i can see it climbing to $600+ but i just cant wait rn due to personal life circumstances.

LTFitness

Literally the EXACT DD that people were posting back then too, just replace “partnered with NVDA” with “partnered with Amazon for cloud service security”. The posts 6 years ago were IDENTICAL. Price still plummeted… This is the biggest top signal for the market I’ve encountered. We’re literally reliving the tech/meme stock craze that occurred before the last big crash. Down to the exact same posts for the exact same stocks. 😂

carzzn

Really good setup. Im 28 with the same port expect add FICO / NVDA and replace SOFI w/ HOOD. Godspeed lil bro you are in for a solid run.

boofpack123

Yes. but do you realize the cost difference between the 2? you must ask yourself does AMD deserve to be 20% of NVDA? does AMD CPU offer 20% technical performance added value compared to GPU? I think 20% sounds exactly where AMD should be.

Visible_Ad_2271

Because they have been around and successful forever and aren‘t cyclical like NVDA who will eventually crash

Specialist_Exam_8433

Why AAPL higher PE than NVDA?

bickusdickus69allday

And people thought $5T NVDA was impossible back then

Jadeclone1

NVDA weekend market is 220.55

gamer_gurl_

Well it shouldn’t rub you the wrong way…it’s the same thing. A trade. Potential to make money just like when you bought NVDA…just different parameters. You’re not happy with 50% return?

RevolutionaryFly3430

Phff, TXN is the new NVDA baby - data centers being built everywhere across the U.S. and 60 billion was injected by the U.S. government. We are bringing Ti-82s and chip making back to the U.S.A.

gamblingPharmaStocks

Why do you explain what ASIC are? Yeah, GPUs give you the flexibility ASICs don't have, but Google and Amazon have stakes in Anthropic have big stakes in Anthropic and have designed their ASICs to work well for Anthropic. Hell, once again, Claude has been trainined on ASICs, don't you think it is obvious that you are wrong about them not working fine for training? The announcement you posted is just irrelevant. The involvement of Anthropic is only that they provide Claude and get the profit share. It's just about making Azure customers use Claude. MSFT is in the NVDA ecosystem, so anthropic will please them to get market share, but the hardware choice is made entirely by MSFT, not by Anthropic.

Traditional_Nail1164

AMDs next products are on TSMC 2nm which NVDA doesn’t use. Supply from TSMC is not a problem - could even be an advantage.

No_Haku2020

I trim core holdings that had gone up a lot (MU. NVDA. CRWD. DELL. AAPL, META etc). I don’t care about FOMO on further runup from here. I exit completely those I had bought on short term trades that had gone up at least 25%+ from my basis (APO. ALAB. CRDO. CRWV. MRVL etc) esp those that are very volatile. Can’t go wrong taking profits. I had learned my lessons from the dot-com bust, housing meltdown, covid crash, etc. Unless you have a stop-loss on them, it would be wise to sell/trim emotion. those u believe would come down a lot in case of a major selloff due to exogenous events (tariffs, Iran war etc) and recover more slowly. You can’t predict when this market will turn against you and by the time you react it’s too late. Not necessarily incurring a loss but getting out at a lower profit compared to getting out when a stock hits record high. I’m very happy w my gains and content with what’s left exposed to the market. Know your risks and level of exposure and have a strategy so you don’t act on emotion when deciding on trades.

SunyataHappens

I didn't realize the Pets.com ticker was NVDA.

TheConstellationGuy

Don’t forget, 20-40% of NVDA revenue still comes from China, despite it being banned.

claytondpark

I posted this y'day and I'll post it again. Tomorrow: ZS 8% NVDA 5% SPX 1.5% NDx 2%

Low_Check5376

I agree and time frame difference is a fact. All you need is $2k collateral for a spread either cash or margin. I also agree with NVDA’s potential downside can destroy the put spreads, so you can use 1 standard deviation or -17 delta on your short leg to be on the save side. It’s an awkward situation because you are forming an inverted synthetic strangle, but the DTEs are different, it’s doable. It is indeed higher risks, but keep doing it until it’s no longer inverted your risk will be much lower, then more aggressive put strikes can be considered.

gamer52599

I would suggest to you two to at least place a put option on your NVDA just in case.

onerandomcomputerguy

Wut about NVDA

lee_suggs

Why is ASICs the shoe company going to take inference from NVDA? Stopped reading after this

dominic_l

GPU is only one aspect of NVDA dominance. theyre building a whole cloud computing and networking exosysytem around their product. NVDA has simply transcended the game. AMD is the dirt under NVDAs fingernails

ApathysLastKiss_

Was hoping for NVDA $213't9 enter calls. Probably missed that opportunity now

Enough-Beginning3687

Just add 30% / year to the valuation of NVDA. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. At 30% per year, NVDA would hit a ~20T valuation in 5 years. How likely is that? 5.2×1.3×1.3×1.3×1.3×1.3 = 19T

onerandomcomputerguy

Sold an NVDA call at a loss, went long oil. Follow me for more bangers

Sharp-Direction-6894

Did NVDA 600k in calls Guy survive?

Jazzlike_Praline_385

Guesses for NVDA open Tues?

Jazzlike_Praline_385

Guessed for NVDA open tues?

ZaraBloom418

My $20k NVDA investment is worth $250k now. I think it’s time I sell $10k to pay half my student loans. The loan I took during covid at 2.2% can inflation away

ZaraBloom418

My $20k NVDA investment is worth $250k now. I think it’s time I sell $10k to pay half my student loans. The loan I took during covid at 2.2% can inflation away

apurimac777

Ofc, still retarded price action Like Ive said if NVDA had TSLA P/E Jeson could just buy the S&P

nateccs

NVDA is known to run hot before earnings and then disappoint. Made 20k on the run up.

apurimac777

NVDA prints money Gets rekt

Background-Nothing71

Bought NVDA June 18 - $220 calls on Friday. Hot or not?

SpyBagholder

So OpenAI is selling compute? I thought the demand was infinite or did Jensen tell a fib on the NVDA earnings call. This should be a bad sign for the market but number go up!

TranzitBusRouteB

already priced in, back to 205 NVDA goes

Artistic_Chicken_557

NVDA had the highest quarter revenue in the history of capitalism... The prior record was Amazon on 11% margins NVDA posted 75% margins.

Fhyzikz

NVDA back over 220 next week

___positive___

Side note, but AMD is proof that we are nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are still largely useless at anything other than boilerplate and CRUDs. Every single tech person, from the small time local LLM hobbyist to the multi-billion capex OpenAIs and Anthropics, would love to have another source of cheap and powerful training/inference chips. There is tremendous pressure and demand, yet the AMD software stack is still not even remotely competitive with CUDA. There are literally billions if not trillions of dollars worth of demand for real NVDA alternatives, yet everyone universally prefers CUDA. This is despite programming being "solved" and the existence of Mythos, GPT5.5 Pro, and so forth. Even low-end "easy" stuff like WAN/LTX etc still does not work as well on AMD, nevermind something as complicated as training GPT6. If anything, Huawei will probably overtake AMD because Deepseek etc actually do training runs on it. AMD has every single incentive to improve its software stack, as does every other AI researcher, but, nope, AMD still sucks. Proof that LLMs are useless at actual tech problems.

carlos5577

Charts don’t matter, valuations do. All you have to do is look at the most valuable company at the time of the bubble. MSFT had a PE of 70x at dot com. NVDA is halfway there at 33x. Meaning we’re halfway done with this bubble unless we surpass it even higher.

pineapplekiwipen

i'm still waiting for my NVDA shares to pay for an RTX 6090 😔

BenisSpaghetti

I remember when the second drought hit, the river ran low and you couldn't even get through Clarke's pass. I thought we going to be eating wool for dinner. Same will be said about NVDA GPUs in 5 years. 🫠

Jdog86788888

Well it depends what your goal is. If it’s income, I’d say O or KO. If it’s growth and just let it ride, I’d say NVDA. If it’s just a regular hold and chill path: VOO. And it depends the account: Roth vs taxable.

Delly2times

Lol, I’ll bet you 5k you don’t buy one single NVDA call tomorrow.

cujokila

Everything above the NVDA line are ETFs, not stocks

tequilamigo

NVDA idk but the token demand is just going one direction. There will be efficiency gains at some point but there will also be a proliferation of physical AI and agentic systems that is just barely started.

Sick0h

NVDA? Cucked. Corn? Shucked. Penis? Tucked. Bers? You know.

NoDragonfruit3996

This is one of the best anti‑NVDA / anti‑AI-capex posts I’ve seen on here, ngl. My only pushback is timing. Railroads and dotcom both overshot *way* longer than the “smart bears” expected and nuked anyone who was early. I like your thesis as a 2027+ play, but between now and then I still think NVDA and the shovel crew get one last face melting blowoff top that makes your eventual short even juicier.

Atrox_Blue

I have different things in different accounts. I bought my first $20 of Micron when it was like $60/share or something like that and have been adding to it ever since. Sold a while back but got back in. I’ve got SMH around like $150 and NVDA at like $56. NBIS at $89. I’ve got AMAT too, that’s a recent position. That’s all basically other than some other broad market ETFs. Edit: corrected some details after double checking

CheffromNowhere

Does NVDA break the backs of shareholders this week?

FreeChemicalAids

To be fair, people are expecting NVDA to lose its grip on thE market some. Otherwise NVDA should be trading at a much higher forward PE.

mrksmb

Because the time frame is so different on the put spread vs. CC it's almost like a separate trade. If the NVDA price drops your put spread might be in trouble, but you can't do anything with your CC since you already rolled to max expiration. Maybe this makes more sense if there is more room to roll out?

mrksmb

Because the time frame is so different on the put spread vs. CC it's almost like a separate trade. If the NVDA price drops your put spread might be in trouble, but you can't do anything with your CC since you already rolled to max expiration. Maybe this makes more sense if there is more room to roll out?

mrksmb

Because the time frame is so different on the put spread vs. CC it's almost like a separate trade. If the NVDA price drops your put spread might be in trouble, but you can't do anything with your CC since you already rolled to max expiration. Maybe this makes more sense if there is more room to roll out?

arenikal

One sure way, with limited applicability, is if you have personal knowledge that a product is very good. That’s how I found NVDA in its computer graphics days. Another way, again, with limited applicability, is if you know an industry very well, and you read an analyst report that is COMPLETELY WRONG. Going the other way can be lucrative.

AnotherThroneAway

This. China is still getting chips in. And frankly, the Chinese market was priced out of NVDA months ago. Besides, we're still supply-constrained, so what does it matter? Nvidia doesn't exactly have warehouses of chips sitting around gathering dust.

boofpack123

😂 buddy ur over a year late. AMD buy opportunity was tariff crash when it was 5% the valuation of NVDA. AMD will hover at 700B for a bit. NVDAs best GPU is still king and controls the pace of AI

shortvol_trader

The gamma/theta relationship is the most underteached concept in retail options education. Everyone learns what theta is on day one but the fact that it's inseparable from gamma — that you can't have one without the other — takes years to internalize. The practical implication most retail traders miss: when you sell premium you're not just collecting theta, you're short gamma. That means you're implicitly betting that realized vol will be lower than implied vol. If the stock moves more than the market priced in, your gamma losses exceed your theta gains regardless of what direction it moves. This is why IV vs RV spread matters so much for short vol edge. You need implied to exceed realized consistently over many trades — that's the volatility risk premium. Black-Scholes assumes they're equal, which is why it needs all those extensions you mentioned. The Heston model adding stochastic vol is the minimum realistic upgrade for anyone pricing seriously. Even then the jump-diffusion correction matters for names like NVDA where the distribution has fat tails that neither BS nor Heston captures cleanly. Good explainer. This should be pinned.

Neoshinryu

Put your money wherever you have the most conviction. You've run into one of the major downsides of concentration. Yes it can often lead to faster growth than diversification, but you're tying everything to the move of one ticker. You're rubbing up against two different "don't"s. Don't stock pick, it almost never beats the market. Don't try to time the market. I personally like to keep a healthy slice of companies like NVDA and RKLB. Any of the leaders in the hot industries driving this bull market. You may not always have the cheapest entry, you may lose a few percent buying before a downturn. Over the long run though you get the best of both worlds irt explosive growth and price stability, without FOMOing and worrying about shifting position everytime Huang's leather jacket is at the cleaners.

DrHarrisonLawrence

Roulette is way worse odds than NVDA lol nobody listen to this guy

XSC

Yeah you should definitely sell NVDA at a loss and put it on NBIS, RKLB who are also both at ATHs. Genius!

trackdaybruh

>I know NVDA will almost surely grow if given time, but I can't help thinking that my portfolio would be better off if I sell some NVDA at a loss, since I could be making more money If your reasoning is you could be making more money and if you know that NVDA will surely grow if given the time then just hold? What's the issue?