Reddit Posts
$NVDA Vera could turn Nvidia into a ~$60B server CPU business by 2028 overtaking $AMD and $INTC as early as next year.
Retiring in 8 to 10 years, going 80% S&P 500 / 8% QQQ / 6% SMH / 6% single stocks. Rate it.
New paper: an AI options trader made 18.3% in 6 months, until researchers let it read the news
Wave Theory Levels for SPY & NVDA (Week Ending Oct 9)
Genesis Mission Expansion: Tech giants commit $2.4B in compute to bridge AI with federal Quantum & Science research
NVDA partner BRUN signed 525M Deal with more coming 👀👀👀
$17K in 2017 to now. I just hold and use it as collateral for margin.
Let's fund SPCX 40B for their NVDA gpu purchase
The AI capex boom is increasingly a bet on AGI, not current economics
AI Doesn’t Give a Fuck About Recession
SpaceX Doubling Its Debt With $40B NVDA Chip Buy
$NVDA is now worth more than $META, $AMZN and $AMD combined
NVDA call options, locking in profits of $22,143
Don’t time the market folk: S&P 500 rises to record high as oil and yields move lower
Markets Grinding Higher; Models are More Cautious
Everyone agrees AI is a bubble. So why does no one sell?
Nvidia $NVDA manufacturing partner Foxconn reported Q3 sales of $95.4 Billion up 47% YoY beating expectations of ~$89B
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - October 5, 2026 📈 📉
Nasdaq closes at fresh record as tech shares rise and traders look past higher yields
Midterms Nov 26 to Jan 27. Trump loses & these stocks will crater. (BTC, AI, DataCentre, Tesla, SpaceX) right?
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - October 2, 2026 📈 📉
Once again S&P1 seems to be the best long term strategy over the S&P500
Another Huge Flag: S&P 500 returns are signalling markets are at a very critical stage
September: +130k in 10 days. Started trading 0–2DTEs on the 21st
AI Stock Crash, while AI Tech is Universal - Prediction
I still don't fully grasp share buybacks and the intrinsic purpose of owning stock.
$NVDA reportedly working with insurers to make GPUs easier to finance for smaller cloud providers by protecting lenders if a borrower defaults - FT
$NVDA has authorized an additional $150 billion share buyback program
$NVDA Launches Open Agent Safety Platform to Secure Agents From
My portfolio strategy for this week is foolproof
Bought $7.2k of NVDA calls at 3:59. Wrong expiration 🤦♀️
NVDA,Bought the right play with the wrong expiration 🤦♀️
If market takes a shit wishlist — what prices are you betting your house on ?
US Large Cap High-Margin Winners: Profitability Meets 2026 Market Momentum
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
Muse is No. 1 on the App Store. When does that show up in Meta’s numbers?
Nvidia CEO shrugs off AI doomsday to protect it's $5.38T cap.
Einride $ENRD to Build Next-Gen Autonomous Trucking Stack in $NVDA Hyperion
NVDA vs SOXX, SOXQ, SMH for Long Term (21yo Portfolio Advice)
I ran a 0DTE iron condor through a prop firm's $50K eval rules. 78% win rate. Pass probability: 34%
NEVER KYS PART 2 — We are almost even with QQQ since I downloaded Robinhood❤️
Is Qualcomm actually capable of building a $15B+ data-center business, or are we underestimating Nvidia/Broadcom/hyperscaler competition?
Most popular stocks review NVDA, META, MU
NVDA update – held green through the Fed hike, pre-market $217
SOXL 9/18 $130 strikes at .12? Hmmm.. 🤔
TRIPLE WITCHING DAY - THIS FRIDAY SEPT 18!
Looks like the NVDA bears got lucky todayyy!
WallStreetBets is a psyop to profit off the greatest wealth exchange in history. Give your inheritance to Jane Street
Sentient AGI will never kill off humans! Loading up if tomorrow is a red day.
Best call options to gamble for next Wednesday Fed decision?
SEPT 16TH DD: The Fed gonna mess up your calls (OR) J-Pow’s successor is bringing back the 1980s. Grab your helmets? (co-written by Gemini)
Everyone’s Chasing NVDA While Korea Is Quietly Building the AI Memory Trade 👀 KSMH
Absolute YOLO - 350 NVDA contracts expiring in 2 trading days ($16k)
BRUN, about to go on a RUN? My First DD. Second time posting.
BRUN, about to go on a RUN? My First DD. Second time posting.
My First DD. BRUN: $1.9B in Contracts, $0 in Common Sense. Going FULL regard.
Been sleeping on $AXTI DD for weeks and I think it's retard strong
Mentions
\> So yeah, shorting them is effectively betting against Jensen. You don't bet against Jensen. I think I will, just not yet. And directly against NVDA, no point in fighting its "SPVs" I don't think he will ever acquire them. The whole point of these companies is to keep assets outside of NVDA's balance sheet, so that would defeat the purpose. I can see him guaranteeing additional backstops, and taking a minority share into a JV that acquires them, so that he doesn't have to consolidate.
Well numbers and financial analysis aside, yesterday that Chinese firm pulled out the exact cloned BS!%@ poopoo noisy PR crap stunt vid of any materiality, out of the DeepSeek playbook who used it against NVDA about 1.5 years ago. These Chinese firms must feel real desesperate. NVDA recovered write quickly and now look at where NVDA is, just 1.5 year after that DeepSeek news that rocked wrongly the world and provided a once in a lifetime cheap entry point for late people. If history repeats itself like NVDA, BUT I'M NOT SAYING IT WILL, then y'all know what to do! I personally believe it's an extremely strong signal.
F*ck Broadcom CEO, bro is upset because he's not NVDA
A+ does exist – it's the top tier of my scale, but it's rarely hit because every metric has to be near optimal. I had NVDA and SFTBY as A+ two years ago – they were basically the best of the best. If you want a specific ticker that hit that score, let me know and I can pull it from the database.
I think NVDA, AMD, PLTR, and maybe MU as well
I just closed a trade whe NVDA hit near ita high. I THINK I put it on when stock was 210/215. Sold a 5 wide put spread to finance a 2 wide OTM debit call spread. 120 days out or so. Did it for a small credit so the probabilities are better than 50/50. Took about 60% profit. If I do debit spread leaps like that I do ITM so theta is on my side.
Markets really do repeat themselves. This is like the whole deepseek event and NVDA
Theyre selling NVDA too 🥲
True but, I can see the correlation why with most stocks but there is some much good news and stuff for NVDA that should be driving the price up. Don’t get me wrong I’m buying this dip and IREN dip also but these huge drops are crazy to me.
Can someone help me understand why exactly NVDA is dropping so much? I just don’t get it.
what tf is the plan? buy more $NVDA at a loss or just stare at the red screen until it stops hurting?
Chip and memory bulls really hoping MU AMD and NVDA can price gouge the world for the next 5 years and China doesn't do their China thing and flood the world with it
$NVDA $225 broke. Yep, semis gap down tomorrow.
Dude, I bought Meta (back when it was Facebook) at $26, sold at $31. Made some money and thought I was so smart😂😂😂. Absolutely regard. Did the same with Tesla. Glad I didn’t do that with AMD and NVDA.
Remember how $NVDA bulls were salivating over the weekend from the Reflection AI rumors and a guaranteed Monday pop? lmao
same NVDA collaboration story for the 4th time
NVDA and SFTBY used to be 2 years ago. I have posted about them several times on WSB.
**NVDA gang members checkin in**
Still big in semis, I don't think this dies too soon. Buy into FUD sell into FOMO. Biggest positions right now MSFT KLAC LRCX ASML, sizeable positions in GLW WDC NVDA MU and a few others.
I lost like 50k across a series of shitty trades in a week like 6 years ago. Still pains me today. To make matters worse, I sold stock positions in NVDA, MSFT and TSLA to fund them.
Portfolio: META RDDT SMCI NVDA MU Bangers bruh.
NVDA has had very strong revenue growth for many years even pre-AI, MU hasn't as its always been a cyclical stock
Everybody with a brain kinda knows that what anthropic and openAI are doing are not at all sustainable. They're trying to push towards AGI, but it just does not seem like LLMs are scaling the way that they thought they would forever, and if AGI is impossible then the rally will fade at some point. Unless they can both keep their revenue and even expand it. As insanely effective as a lot of the LLMs are, both openAI and anthropic need to raise prices and/or cut expenses massively to make themselves profitable. Raising prices results in a slowdown in demand. That's just a fact. The competition also doesn't help them because if chatGPT raises prices, I'll go to claude, or some other free alternative that is 95% as good but is free or low cost. So how are they going to retain revenues in the face of rising expenses? Because definitionally in the long term, they NEED to do this. There's no doubt to anyone that uses them professionally that LLMs are effective. They are helpful. They've saved me immense time myself. But I'm not sure that my employer would pay lets say $500-1000 a month for access for just me. But those are the kinds of prices that these will need to justify their valuations, and that is without any further improvements I think people are just scared that the current spend will not be justified. NVDA still mostly holds a monopoly for GPUs, but there are multiple options for memory. If MU was a monopoly in the same way it might be double the current price.
For anyone revisiting this Reddit post - you are correct, as of 2026, fractional options do in fact exist, and will be available for you very soon. For years the answer here was a flat no, since one contract meant 100 shares and that was simply how the market worked. That rule didn't change because a broker got generous. It changed because someone rebuilt how the contract itself is made, so you can now hold a slice of a real option the same way you'd hold a slice of a share. Each contract has a 1x multiplier instead of 100, and orders can be any fraction down to $1 of notional, so the at-the-money SPY call that costs $600 on a normal broker costs $6. The first underlyings are SPY and QQQ, the options are European and cash-settled, and the book never closes, so you can trade nights and weekends. Your collateral stays yours the whole time, and there's no wallet, seed phrase, or gas anywhere in the process. We'll leave the details for when you go looking. But if you landed here because one NVDA call costs more than your rent, you're early, and you won't be for long. Your good Omen is coming.
There's literally zero volume behind this NVDA dump
Damn. They really bull trapped semis last week with false breakouts. Can't hold gains for shit. $MU had one day of gooning only to dump next 3 days in a row erasing goonage. $NVDA takes like 69 years to break $230 only to hold above for like 5 seconds before dumping. $INTC bout to go below $100 again.
The full blown aerial assault on $MU, $NVDA, $SNDK, and others is crazy. Very interested to see where this goes the next 30 days.
Damn. Check out what they did to my boys NVDA and MU.
NVDA :clifford: :clifford: :clifford: :clifford: :clifford:
On the first one: a 78 call with a 100 call sold against it is just a 78/100 call debit spread, and at a penny the short leg does almost nothing except make the position show up as defined risk on the platform. That’s a habit from their “always sell something” framing, not an edge. The NVDA one you liked is the same idea in the other direction. An ITM put with an OTM put sold under it is a put debit spread, so the max gain is the width minus what you paid, not open-ended like a short. Reading every analyst trade as a spread with a width and a debit makes most of them click.
Yeah but NVDA raised the RTX 6000 from 8k to 16k in one year. Those same massive profits they make are just being given to these AI companies for a handjob and to buy those same GPUs. Their plan is to circle jerk each other to infinity and to self regulate super duper duper AI so open weight models don't eat their lunch.
Not necessarily. I actually trade single tickers, but tickers like TSLA, NVDA don't really have liquidity issues unless you're buying the long tail.
Yes, this is the real point. I mean the metaphors for past booms and busts are fine (I'm partial to the railroad one too) but the lack of moat is huge. I bet big on NVDA a few years ago and that went well, I'm staying out of Anthropic except for a little play money. Sure, I like the product, but it's incredibly replaceable.
Buy SNAP. NVDA, AMAZON. Partnership.
No, semis are looking fine, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO and AMD are all up. It's memory only.
Dang I begged my dad to put in any amount of money into NVDA, even like 2k back in 2015. He just said all investments are scams and made me scared of stocks too rip
The post gives explicit reclaim levels and invalidation points for both SPY and NVDA. To make the wave count testable, could you keep a dated ledger of each weekly level—close relative to the trigger, whether invalidation or target was hit, and the forecast horizon? A small calibration table would show whether these levels add information beyond a simple breakout/mean-reversion baseline.
Realizing I have to hedge against AI taking over my job by buying NVDA.
From an NVDA perspective, the key distinction is whether this is only a SKU/channel-allocation rumor or a confirmed production change. The post says the source is an unverified factory message; I’d wait for NVIDIA or board-partner confirmation, then look for a measurable shift in Gaming vs. Data Center revenue, gross margin, or channel inventory before treating it as a fundamental change. The 5090 demand alone doesn’t size the earnings impact.
NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation - Current Price: $229.28 - Current Market Cap: $5.54T - Bull Target (12–18m): $285–$320 - Bear Target: $175–$190 - Upside: +24% to +40% - Downside: -17% to -24% - Reward-to-Risk: ~1.6:1 - Success Probability: 70% (estimated) - Expected ROI: +19% (estimated) - Return per 1% Downside: ~0.9% - Forward P/E: 18.96 - Debt-to-Equity: Low - 1-Year Return: +19.35% 🟢 - 5-Year Return: +1,005.52% 🟢 - Profitability: Highly Profitable 🟢 - Revenue Growth: +83.4% YoY 🟢 - Earnings Growth: +122.7% YoY 🟢 - Free Cash Flow: Strongly Positive 🟢 - Price Trend: Long-term bullish 🟢 - Bull-Case Market Cap: $6.88T–$7.73T - Comparable Companies: Broadcom, AMD, TSMC ($2.05T) - Risk: Moderate-High - Conviction: 8/10 - Grade: B+ NVIDIA dominates AI accelerators, GPUs, and data-center computing. Exceptional growth, profitability, and shareholder returns support my bullish outlook, but its enormous $5.54T valuation limits realistic upside over the next 12–18 months, preventing an A grade despite outstanding business fundamentals.
Wouldnt touch IREN with a 20ft stack of unused NVDA gpus sitting in a warehouse somewhere not installed into a data center yet from last announced pump and dump deal
nice plan but especially the QQQ/SMH and 6% single‑name (NVDA) looks like over‑concentration; consider upping the large‑cap core to about 90% VOO/VTI and putting the 10‑15% into diversified growth or international; keep a bond ladder for the 40‑year‑horizon and test your 10‑year trailing rule against a realistic drawdown before you lock it in.
What percentage of earnings from Apple, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL and META are dependant on AI? Most of these companies are the ones being punished in the AI environment because they are the ones spending the Capex. While MU, AVGO and NVDA are the ones benefitting from this spending.
The valuations of many big companies in SP500 really are dependent on AI spending. This is just like the dot com 1.0 era. • NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) – ~8.36% – 8.59% weight • Apple Inc. (AAPL) – ~7.35% – 6.87% weight • Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) – ~5.76% – 4.71% weight • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) – ~3.70% – 4.13% weight • Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) – ~3.05% – 3.67% weight • Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) – ~2.53% – 3.09% weight • Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) – ~2.45% – 2.92% weight • Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) – ~2.42% – 2.11% weight • Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) – ~1.82% – 1.42% weight • Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) – ~1.51% – 1.96% weight That's 40% of the SP500 valuation. And every one of them is tied to AI (Apple the least). Nvidia, Google, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta and Micron are welded to AI's future. Tesla valuation trades only on the prospect of AI Robotaxis and droids. People underestimate how much SP500 and total US market cap index is literally an AI trade bet.
So now S&P only moves if NVDA moves?!
I think it is a low probability that Anthropic will pull their scheduled IPO in November. There is too much of wall street and silicon valley and monied interests to make this happen. Just think what would happen to NVDA and the neoclouds if Anthropic sh!t the bed. That doesn't mean however that Anthropic will achieve a $2T market cap or won't fall on the first day of trading. So I would pull some money from the market and have some dry powder in case the IPO pulls the whole market down. There will be no safe havens except maybe healthcare, oil majors, and Berkshire Hathaway. Cash is probably just as good.
If you really buy into the thesis on how half of all chips are unplugged or sitting in powerless DC’s/ daddy Jensen is forcing customers to buy in surplus i think NVDA is the clear short winner
VOO - 50% VXUS - 25% ISRG - 10% NVDA - 5% USAR - 5% CEG - 5% I'm 24 studying mechanical engineering & I want to start investing long term. How much should I put in roth ira vs taxable accounts? Any advice on the port is welcome I'm going for a basic core-satellite structure.
railroads built a single line and then shut down, but the AI ecosystem is a multi‑layered platform. Even if a lab runs out of cash, its models can still be absorbed by Google, Amazon, or Microsoft – big companies with massive cloud bases and recurring revenue. Those giants can shift costs, spin off the assets, or flip them into services. So from a risk perspective, a diversified AI ETF or a core infrastructure play like NVDA gives more resilience than betting on a single fledgling lab. If you’re scared of a collapse, a broad basket of AI‑exposed tech stocks is the safer bet, because the rail‑track logic only applies to one‑off, high‑capex projects with no path to profit.
This is a thoughtful plan, especially the spending rate, long horizon for your dependent, and precommitted rules. My main concern is that the “tilt” may be less diversified than it looks: the S&P 500, QQQ, SMH, and NVDA overlap heavily in large-cap tech and semiconductors. I’d stress-test the whole portfolio—not just the tilt—against a long stretch of U.S. large-cap underperformance, a major drawdown near retirement, and the dependent’s needs. What bond allocation and cash-flow plan would protect the retirement date if stocks fell hard in years 7–10?
I made a direct comparison with Micron, I didn't mention that NVDA didn't rise quickly. My point is that NVDA didn't rise as quick as Micron and there's a big difference. If you are still struggling to see that I can't help you.
NVDA +2% kinda day I believe
🚨 BREAKING: I'VE DISCOVERED THE REAL REASON STOCKS ONLY GO UP 🚀🌕 Listen UP While Goldman Sachs is spending $40 billion hiring MIT graduates to build quantitative trading models, I've been conducting groundbreaking research from my couch. THE ENTIRE STOCK MARKET IS CONTROLLED BY THE MOON. Think about it. The moon controls the tides. The human body is mostly water. Traders are humans. Therefore, the moon controls traders. THIS IS BASIC SCIENCE. And the rabbit hole goes deeper. 🌕 FULL MOON: Maximum gravitational pull on my portfolio. SPY calls preparing for liftoff. 🌑 NEW MOON: The moon is literally reloading. Accumulation phase. EXTREMELY BULLISH. ☀️ SOLAR FLARES: The sun is blasting Earth with free energy. How could this possibly be bearish for NVDA? 🪐 MERCURY RETROGRADE: Mercury is going backward, which means the market has to go forward. Newton's Third Law. Look it up. 🐂 CHINESE ZODIAC: Year of the Horse. Horses run fast. Bulls also run. SPY $800 confirmed. I've spent the last six hours backtesting this strategy against three YouTube videos and a fortune cookie. Results: 100% confidence. Zero statistical significance. Infinite upside. I LOOK AT THE SKY. The bears are studying unemployment reports while I'm calculating the gravitational pull of Uranus on the Nasdaq. YOU CANNOT PRICE IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM. SPY $800 EOY. NVDA $300. VIX going to zero. Bears getting liquidated in all 24 time zones. POSITIONS: 100% CALLS, 0% HEDGES, 200% ASTROLOGICAL CONVICTION. 🚀🌕🐂💎🙌 Not financial advice. I have been staring directly at the sun for confirmation.
NVDA wants the next openai or anthropic, they already have the hardware market by the balls but their software side has been a bit of a hit or miss.
the plan is solid on the big index, but the tech tilt feels like a neck‑tied safety net. 80% S&P and 8% QQQ already overlap a lot in FA>NVDA etc. If the same chip cycle hiccups, you could be staring at a 30–40% hit close to your 8‑year mark. Also the legacy leg with 40‑year horizon could use a bit more diversification – maybe a slice of global (e.g. VTI + XWO) and some bonds earlier, the 3‑year-before‑retirement window feels tight. Brown‑out if a shock hits; you’ll still be riding the crash before you start realigning. Consider a 70/30 US/International split plus 10–15% bonds from year –5 to start smoothing out the tail risk.
NVDA vs Micron over the last 5 years. Do you see the difference? https://preview.redd.it/a8mczciarwuh1.jpeg?width=2160&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d7d696a55879b5b59a2553adbdfd3a42612d6af2
i get why you’re flagging the lack of international & mid‑cap exposure – it’s a legit gap. one way to address that without losing your AI tilt is to add a small‑cap domestic layer via an ETF like IJR or IJH, and a global equity wheel like VXUS or ACWI – you can keep the 80/20 core but boost diversification, and you’ll still see the upside during a tech upcycle. just keep an eye on concentration and maybe trim a bit of NVDA if the sector overheats.
Age is the central question. Or brass tacks, number of years you plan on living, I suppose. In any case, this portfolio doesn't make much sense. 8% QQQ? Why bother, considering the overlap. And OP cites NVDA as a single stock, but it's the biggest position in both QQQ and S&P. Just pointless. /u/Inevitable_Abies_777 not trying to slam your concept here, but it's just fussing around the edges. If you're going risk-on, just VOO it up, or if you're looking for a reason to actively oversee it, 90%+ VOO with a splash of individual SMH components. Otherwise, you're better off derisking from the S&P, not leaning into it. Take a lesson from the train industry—the sign is a big RXR—as in, do not cross Risk and Retirement
Can NVDA please start the day without a rugpull
you are pretty heavy nvda, SMH is a large part of QQQ and SP500, NVDA is the largest part of SMH
SOXX or SOXQ to avoid high concentration in NVDA
7 days non-technical analysis: META will be sub700 and NVDA back to 180s in a month from now
I just picked monthly bc my argument was based on leveraging the shares as passive income and most bills are due monthly. Easier for people to understand and digest rather than picking 72 days or some other arbitrary length of time. I've also heard people say choose 45 days (closest to 6 weeks) and close at 75-90%. Plus, the farther out you go, the less you make in theta per day as theta is basically calculated as the premium divided by number of days remaining if the strike is OTM. Giving more time also gives more opportunities for the stock to actually make it there, sounds like he doesn't rly want to sell. Also because NVDA is a "hot stock" with lots of trading volume and volatility, the premiums 1-4 weeks out are plenty high, going to get diminishing returns the farther out you go. The extra premium you farm for pushing it out further is not worth having lower turnover and higher chance of assignment while also dealing with lower volume (contracts 3-6 weeks out will be traded in greater quantities than 3-6 months out, therefore the further out we go the wider the spread and lower liquidity). Most platforms actually give you %s of closing in the money for that strike on that expiration. Based on your goals, you can use that to pick the one that makes sense for you. Instead of just selling the strike 5% over the current price, u can look at the options chain and pick one with these projections in mind. Selling the 68% level, 1 SD, will pay more premium but will get assigned about 1/3 of the time. 84% (2 SD) will pay a little less but u will keep the shares 5/6 of the time, 95% (or 5% stock will close in the money) u get very little premium but u will also keep the stock nearly every time and if u DO get assigned, then you're selling way above current value.
It'll 2X before NVDA does, I'll tell ya that much
There's not a "huge" point throwing 6% into individual stocks if you have 80% in the S&P500. NVDA accounts for almost 8% of the S&P500 already, so 5-6% of your money is already in nvidia.
The market turned in 2022. TSLA out performed the rest of MAG7 META went from 333 to 113 MSFT went from 343 to 221 NVDA went from 27 to 11 TSLA went from 400 to 300 WITH the CEO cashing out billions in stock BUT THEN he kept dumping billions and billions (to by xitter) and it dumped to 105 by Jan 2023. He said he was done dumping and it double in a 4-6 weeks. so... TSLA moves more on CEO whackiness and not broader trends
🥭 announced ceasefire. Oil to 60, NVDA 300, AMD 750, SPY 850. My Christmas wish list
Well, with this allocation you've rested like 20% of your retirement on NVDA, and like 30% on chip makers all together. Some diversification would be wise.
NVDA: 8% of S&P 500, 9% of QQQ, 22% of SMH, 100% of NVDA Numbers not exact but watch for concentration risk.
this old reddit link error is literally the state of my mental health right now. broken interface, no context, just a button that doesn't work. reminds me of buying calls at the top thinking i had insider info but really i was just staring at a glitch. the platform decay matches the market decay perfectly. we are all just clicking refresh on a 404 page hoping for alpha. my ergonomic chair hurts because i've been sitting here watching $NVDA tank for three days straight. maybe i should have bought a pool float instead of options. the signal is gone. list94 signing off into the void where nothing matters and my broker fees eat my soul. whatever.
OMG, NVDA is up 440% since your comment. It up 21% over the last 12 months. It was at ATH. As I said in a reply, I converted MSFT to NVDA. I've also invested a ton more into NVDA since this post. You gotta see what's happening when you invest long term. I knew AI was the next big thing, and I was right.
NVDA is up 440% since your comment. You gotta see what's happening when you invest long term. I knew AI was the next big thing, and I was right.
Oooh boy, where do I even start with this… I know I’m about to make some of you WSB regards who bought AMD at the tippity top really mad, but it’s ok. Let’s see… To be fair, the fact that it’s gone parabolic recently makes an investor who doesn’t want to incinerate their money a little suspicious that this stock is a bit overvalued, but let’s ignore that; it happens. [Here are the values of some core valuation metrics for AMD](https://prnt.sc/dOM3ewxR0QGo); even when compared to its own ridiculous historical valuation metrics, it still prints as overvalued currently, or at the very least fairly elevated. But let’s ignore this too; at the end of the day, it’s a growth stock, right? And it also has low debt. That’s a good thing. Having a clean balance sheet is nice, but not going bankrupt is the absolute bare minimum for a company trading at such top-tier valuations. Let’s start talking numbers: ROIC is a measly 9.11%. NVDA: 72.42%, AVGO: 24.39%, MU:59.39%, TSMC: 31.23%, all way cheaper (in terms of multiples) than AMD too. The highest EV/EBITDA of all these is 33.87 for AVGO; AMD’s is 103.39. You’re paying $1T for $41B of sales and $6.4B of earnings, and all of that while AMD is also doing tiny buybacks and SBC is 18.8% of operating cash flow and 22.6% of free cash flow. The company is surviving on pure growth expectations; it’s not even funny. The TTM SBC-adjusted FCF yield is a mere 0.65%. AMD is actively diluting you through all this too; its shares outstanding have been increasing 5.78% p.a. for the last 5 years. EVEN after accounting for its good revenue growth, you’re still paying an unfathomable premium for the absolute bottom of the elite semiconductor pack; almost every other major player has been growing quicker, more efficiently, with better prospects of further growth, higher gross margins, AND without diluting their shareholders as much as AMD has been at the same time. Oh, and they are ALL cheaper. I’ll add my own little analysis here; I’m going to calculate a rough estimate of a fair price for this thing, and I’ll give you a little peek at how much you’re paying for actual existing cash generation and business, and how much you’re paying for pure SPECULATION and EUPHORIA. The 3-year normalized average owner earnings (FCF-SBC-CAPEX) is a tiny $3.01B. Applying an asset-light-business multiplier of 12.5x to that, adding the current $13.11B in cash, and dividing the total by the current float, you get a structural target price of $31.12 per share… Assuming a 4% equity risk premium over the 10Y Treasury yield of 5.24%, you get an annual cost of equity of 9.24%. Capitalizing owner earnings + current cash at that rate and dividing by a current float of 1.63B shares, you get a macro target price of $28.02 per share. Current share price is COMPLETELY detached from cash-generating reality; it’s literally funny how much hopium it takes to buy at the current valuation. The growth premium multiple is 608.49/31.12=19.55x meaning that out of the 608.49 you’re paying per share right now, $577.36 (1-1/19.55=0.9488 or 94.88% of the price) is PURE SPECULATION, and $31.12 is anchored on real current cash generation. The unlevered cash yield on this thing is only 0.3%, bro… Mind you, ALL the figures in that analysis completely ignore the $3.23B in debt you’d have to pay before paying the shareholders. Taking that into account, the intrinsic values have become $29.14 and $26.04 respectively, making the case for buying even worse than it already is. The growth premium multiple becomes 20.88x the real value of the company, meaning you spend over 95% of the share price on PURE SPECULATION and yet UNPROVEN growth expectations. At this point, I think it’s relevant to remind you that we are talking about a highly cyclical industry at peak euphoria; the real question here then is what exactly on earth makes you think AMD is anything near an opportunity at this price?
It happens with NVDA every time
NVDA didn't rise this quick, it was over time.
how are you having liquidity issues on the top 2 most traded options underlyings? i can trade dozens of shares of tickers like XSP and XND just fine. NVDA and TSLA are highly liquid. make sure ur using the proper model for it
Sell covered calls. Very juicy on NVDA or other volatile tech. Worst case you sell at a higher price than today, but you get paid for the calls immediately.
I have no idea what that means. I don't read news. If 2008 happens again, NVDA drops, google drops, MU drops man its not that complicated. You're hedging with another tightrope.
Ugh you’re stupid. And now you’ve probably actually looked up NVDA’s revenue and realized… uh oh what does it say??
Are you actually stupid? Google NVDA revenue, it’s well over $200B this year.
This ^ even on the most liquid tickers like NVDA and TSLA, I often have liquidity issues when dealing with short-dated options in even moderate volumes (50-70 contracts). Fractionals would make it ridiculous.
Yeah this "obsolete in three" thing is what Burry had been betting (and losing) on for a while, meanwhile rental rates for three year old NVDA GPUs has gone up in price
Dumped all my NVDA shares. Video games are a dead thing. Put it all on safe bets like Enron and GM.
All of their recent purchase like Huggingface are aimed at local AI. I firmly Altman/Dario are canoodling with the admin to have regulations set that provide them a moat by forcing enterprise business not to use Chinese AI as a security risk. That's why Jensen spoke out against the "AI slowdown". As long as compute is in demand NVDA is happy. In fact, the whole AI trade would be in a much less risky spot if the majority of compute was being bought by profitable companies to host their own local servers. I'm peronally of the opinion that regardless of what happens with the current valuations the technology is here to stay. I'm not going to pretend if I know if an implosion is coming, but if there is one I'm going to buy tons of anything that is local LLM adjacent.
So NVDA’s business model is essentially creating/buying AI companies, and then having that subsidiary company turn around and use that seed money to buy NVDAs products? Smart way to have great quarterly earnings, but surely at some point these AI startups need to actually be able to produce their own positive cash flow to keep this gravy train rolling… …right…?
circular funding loop is hurting fundamentals; NVDA buying chips, OpenAI fueling research, Anthropic renting AWS - investors rejoice, valuation climbs while cash flow remains thin, that explains the weird boom.
NVDA also owns a significant percent of these AI labs
They've been on a tear buying local LLM adjacent businesses. My read has been NVDA sees the writing on the wall for these AI labs in the long-term and sees a trend toward local LLMs for the majority of enterprise work.
NVDA cannot go down. ever. it's one of the laws of the universe.
Was it OpenAI or NVDA that started the circular funding? I thought it was NVDA, but my memory is pretty shit nowadays.