NVDA

Flag_Shagger

relative to demand, yes. recent deutsche bank forecast shows the supply glut actually widening over the next 5 years. SK Group Chairman says even if they double capacity in the next 5 years they won’t be able to meet demand. HBM requires 3-5x more wafers per GB than standard memory. Also, by expanding HBM supply they are creating another bottleneck in standard memory, so they win on both fronts. the only way for them to crash is if demand disappears (i.e. if hyperscaler capex drops)…if demand disappears then NVDA also crashes…but market keeps a 5x multiple on memory and a 30x multiple on NVDA…it’s a joke (even though technically, memory is better positioned due to diversification of income & less competition. NVDA had a free ride but now they’re losing market share to AVGO, NVDA, AMD & now even MediaTek lol

FullCantaloupe2547

Because MU sells memory that other people sell, know how to make, and is pretty interchangeable. NVDA on the other hand has stuff like CUDA and a MASSIVE ecosystem with tons of developers. I don't think I've ever heard anyone say they care who makes the RAM they use. It's not something anyone interacts with. The bear case for MU is already here. All that matters is supply/demand. Bear case for NVDA is still theoretical.

visionarymind

NVDA was a better investment

Flag_Shagger

yeah that’s true, that’s why I’m not invested in NVDA. But when you see the fact that NVDA & Micron have the exact same bear case, but only one of them is being priced (and constantly banged on about) and the other is totally ignored…how does that make any sense?

Upstairs_Whole_580

I'm sorry, you're upset with ME for... simply stating a FACT? You can become a millionaire far earlier, but it's not common. I recently passed 8 figures, barely missing doing so in my 30s. It required a scholarship to pay for College, a high paying field, I went to NU Law School, and a whole lot of sacrifice. It you want a "Lambo," it's unlikely to happen. A little luck helps as well... as NVDA in 2018 did it, but this was after living at home until I was 29, driving a beater, and investing about 85% of my take home pay. So... keep whinning about SIMPLE, basic stats, or... fucking do something about it... I said rare. Please define that word for me.

FullCantaloupe2547

I know it is. I'm not buying NVDA at $5T based on a few years of GPU sales. I think they also won't be able to maintain the moats that Google, Meta, Apple, Amazon, etc have. Those companies have nearly unsurmountable moats. Hardware is usually not much of a moat, and we don't know if there is 20 years of the same sort of GPU improvements ahead of us. I mean, just look at the lithography gains to be had going forward. In 2006 we move to 65nm. 20 years later we are at 1.8nm. Do we have anything even remotely close to that going forward? I don't know, but everything I see says those sorts of gains are long gone. NVDA's future business is a lot harder to predict than Google. People have been advertising for 5000 years. It's not going to stop. It's a fundamental part of all commerce.

madsuperpes

My most stubborn opinion was that the markets will collapse "any day now". I held that belief and since my mind was searching all the time, it found a trader who held the same view, they had a subscription with trades one could follow. So I did, it was very profitable the first year, so I rejoiced and doubled the money allocation towards it. But then it turned very red (he shorted all the major outbreaks at the time like NVDA, GEV, etc.), and kept getting worse. And that was about 3-4 years back. And even then I was stubborn enough, I held through most of the shorts and only closed some recently at a catastrophic loss. I am mostly investing in myself and my business these days, and stocks have been left for a much safer investment subscription (essentially index funds but not exactly buy and hold). And my opinion of the markets changed to "although it looks rigged to me, I don't know what's going to happen to the stock market, and therefore I will invest in it much less of my time and energy until it corrects". The only thing that worked well during these years was the statement about rising inflation (classic for doom and gloom mindset), I had a lot of gold and gold miners, but that was the only part of that earlier wordlview which worked.

Still-Proposal8711

It took you 5 years with NVDA to make those gains. I will have your account value by end of the year 🥱 https://preview.redd.it/g66o7py2vqch1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73de1c8cfd2847ee3d794cdea096fb238b5bec56

TheKaiserAlpha

The old NVDA debate was “AI demand real or hype?”; the new one is “can durability keep up while share shifts and custom silicon rise?” My bull case: AI spending grows fast enough that total demand outpaces share loss and pricing pressure. My bear case: the market already priced in flawless execution, and every big customer is now pushing to reduce dependence on the highest‑margin supplier. To change my mind, I’d want to see : • sustained gross margins despite competition, • hyperscaler capex still heavily GPU‑heavy, not just TPU/Trainium, • and customer concentration staying high without forced diversification. If those three hold, the bull still works. If not, this looks like a great company with a harder stock to own.

Broke4Life

Me realizing my NVDA position ain't shit

Detail4

Nothing is ever “due” to happen in investing. SpaceX is richly valued at ipo because people pay the premium now. This year most mega caps have gotten cheaper than last. S&P earnings are +18% over the last 12 months. Profits, real money, is ripping. This might be a bubble but it’s not 1999 when the hottest companies made no money. NVDA for example is the largest company by market cap and just keeps getting cheaper bc they crush earnings. I’m not blind to risks. But I wouldn’t bet on any other country’s stock market outperforming the US. They may win but their markets won’t.

hybridoctopus

Even if it’s just limited to a handful of stocks! Like let us sell NVDA shares back and forth between us.

The_Unforgiving_Kram

!banbet NVDA $220 10d

Illustrious-Coat3532

I closed my NVDA position last October at $195.

CIark

She got bored after NVDA went flat for a year 

PM_Me_An_Ekans

Nah. I bought NVDA 1dte $200 calls when it dipped Thursday and made bank. Im finally about to break even. I can feel it.

CustomerSingle3173

AMD will buy NVDA. Nvidia has all their eggs in one basket. I am a regard so I'm never wrong

Regular_Screen_5189

NVDA because it’s abt to explode

Mysterious-Device-53

When's the last time NVDA popped off on stellar earnings?

Professional_Art3563

I don’t want war or bloodshed. But I want NVDA back to $190 to load up before ER.

Samjabr

You think FWD pe with NVDA growth rate makes sense? So, explain WMT PE of 40 to me, or even AAPL.

Broke4Life

Claiming 39 billion in back log orders over 20 customers. Margins last earnings was thinking, so they need to increase that. They had a new Linux based Ai edge device launch last week. Whole Ai data racks now shipping, new NVDA chip support completed, etc. The company is doing great things for all that they are. Mgmt though, hits just keep coming. I waited to enter after I watched the recovery from 22.00 when the first news hit, got in around 32.00 as I was hoping for support at 30. Then the raid news......my gut says they will pop after earnings, my beaten ass tells me they will dip.

Samjabr

Can anyone explain why NVDA is trading at such a hilariously low forward PE? FFS, it's half of WMT's What's the secret?

Flag_Shagger

that’s true, but that problem is the exact same for NVDA & AVGO. Market only assigns this bullshit problem to memory.

FullCantaloupe2547

AI accelerators might very well be a commodity in a few years. People act like NVDA has been making $100B/year for the last 20 years. They haven't. They have barely made any money other than the last 2-3 years. They have not at all proven that GPUs are not a commodity. Nvidia margins could in fact collapse in 5 years.

valbolt

Splitting it into compute/memory/foundry/equipment is the right way to think about it - these don't all move together and the timing on each is completely different. One thing worth looking at alongside individual names is SMH, the semiconductor ETF - it holds NVDA, ASML, TSM, MU and the rest in one package. $1.8B flowed into it just last week, which suggests institutional interest hasn't dried up despite the run. Technically SMH is sitting around $611 with the sector already up about 68% this year.....whether that means expectations are fully baked in or there's still room is something everyone has to work out for themselves 😄 Just observations, not financial advice\*

Burgerburgerfred

> Any moron could have looked 5 years ago and said “wow Google makes a lot of money. I am going to buy Google stock” > > > I’m referring to the ten year period . Not five > And in 5 years you would have more than doubled the performance of the S&P500 on just vibes You weren't in the post that I originally responded to but if that is what you meant so be it. That has been the premise of my responses because based on that original idea of Google 5 years ago based on your original comment a company like Microsoft dramatically under performed. My point mostly still stands. Even among mega caps in 5-10 year windows there is the potential to massively over or underperform. I personally just took a hodge podge of the biggest companies (MSFT AMZN AAPL GOOG AMD NVDA among some other individual stock picks I like and balanced it with the index funds. So I have diversity among my individual large cap picks as well as a safe fallback with a healthy investment in index funds. Obviously keep doing what works for you. No part of this is me trying to convince you that you personally are doing anything incorrectly, I just think your line of thinking isn't going to be the best way to approach things for *most* people who invest.

horesebeblind

No I have an MBA Spent years in finance as a controller You are a clown Have 1500 shares NVDA ave. Cost 40 Amat Ave cost 72 AMD Ave cost. 47 AAPL average cost 71 GS. 385 Maybe I am lucky to have 6 figure gains in all of them. Or maybe I knew what I was doing

ga643953

For a stock like NVDA to get cut in half? It's very unlikely because it's too cheap. But it also won't go up because it has the biggest market cap. If you do TA, you can short it, you can do a calendar spread 1 day before earnings to take a bet with a decent chance of winning and close it right after earnings to quickly make a 50-150% profit in a day, depending on how hyped up the stock is at the time. If you don't, you either average down or sell CCs when it gets closer to your adjusted cost average again. All of these can let you own NVDA for free. You just have to figure out what you're comfortable with and stick with it.

ga643953

Then you continue selling calls until the entire position's adjusted cost average is $0. You get to own NVDA for free if given enough time.

Derek_the_Red

Where we think NVDA goes right before earnings? 250? It will of course dip after earnings.

ga643953

It is by nature always overpriced to protect the market makers. When IV crush happens you win about 8/10 times, especially for NVDA, where the implied move is usually 5-10%, but is ends up only moving 2% for the most part. You are basically the dealer in the casino.

Happy-Champion1661

Semis up, semis down, I don't give a fuk anymore. People calling for another 2x-4x like it's nothing are 100% certified regarded 🤡 Even a 2x means adding $500B-$1T+ to basically every major name, and NVDA alone would need another $5T, clearly impossible this year. Maybe over the next several years, sure. Meanwhile, a 30-50% dump would only take most of them back to around April prices, which isn't exactly some black swan. If anything, those levels would probably be a decent buying opportunity.

_ii_

It’s a 80% chance of making 20% vs 20% chance of making 80% scenario. Buying NVDA at $5T is still a pretty good bet because of the high probability of it hitting $6T. Buying some less well executed companies at $1T, you may have chance of doubling your money, but it’s going to be a much slimmer chance.

Hefty_Cod_2037

Predictions: NVDA -> 220 (next week) SPY -> 760 (next week) RCAT -> 15 (earnings) AVEX -> 20 (earnings) This is not financial advice, clearly. This is dementia

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Odd_Neighborhood969 (0W - 3L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **NVDA** ▼ | $205.97 → $195.00 | -5.3% | 2d | Lost |

Superunknown999

Is your dividend portfolio made up of NVDA, GOOGL and AAPL? Most stocks that would be considered dividend safe havens (including the ones you mentioned) have underperformed the market in the last 4.5 years. Not sure how you could be up 120%.

ga643953

Or you can buy $950,000 worth of NVDA stock the day before earnings, then sell as much covered calls as you can that will all expire after earnings. The options are always overpriced so you can easily make that 5% in a day. It's free money.

VotedOut

95-99% of the comments in this thread is the same dumbass excuses being used to try to justify that a dumbass bubble is sure to just keep on chugging along for years. >"It can't crash anymore cuz Fed print money, inflation, and dollar devaluation." Yes it can crash when it has already far exceeded the amount of money printing, inflation, and dollar devaluation. Do the fucking math or look at the goddamn ratio charts. [Inflation Adjusted S&P 500](https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500) [US - Total Market Cap Divided by M2 Money Supply](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/34/us-stock-relative/24033/wilshire5000-to-us-m2) Also, multiple S&P 500 valuation charts (almost every one of them) are at or exceeding dotcom bubble levels right now: [CAPE Ratio](https://imgur.com/a/Xvsaos3), [Buffett Indicator](https://i.imgur.com/fN3g97M.jpeg), [Mean Reversion model](https://imgur.com/a/58OwAKs), [Interest Rate model](https://imgur.com/a/iT66lyc), and the [Aggregate Market Value Index Score](https://i.imgur.com/adh7AgO.jpeg) >"It can't crash anymore cuz the rich need to put their money somewhere." Kind of like they "needed" to put their money somewhere in 1929 and 2000? First, the S&P 500, AI stocks, and space stocks aren't the only places to put money. And even if they were, that doesn't stop crashes from happening. Second, just because good buying opportunities may be mostly dried up at the moment, doesn't mean you have to FOMO into over-priced shit. Sometimes the best thing to do is WAIT for a fair price, or even a premium price... but don't pay clown prices. >"But look at the profits of semi-conductors like NVDA and MU, they've exploded! And their P/E ratios still look reasonable now. It's justified. Fair enough on that one. And that's all fine and dandy if you don't look bother to look underneath the surface. But if you DO bother to look underneath the surface, you'll see that (1) This sector is cyclical. (2) It's not sustainable when the money being spent on this shit far exceeds the profits that can and will be made anytime soon in the near future (as evidenced by OpenAI and Anthropic's money burning businesses). This has been covered by others and explained in detail a number of times by other people with working brains, so I won't belabor the point. >\[Insert one-liner low IQ bullshit here\] Further proof that the market is in a bubble when it's mostly brain-dead spam comments like that. Like really... there's no excuse anymore to be posting so much dumbass intellectually lazy trite human slop when you could be posting AI slop instead that at least shows 10x more thought. Right now, the voting machine is winning out against the weighing machine - but that probably won't last. In late stage bubbles (like we're in now), lazy thinking beats out critical thinking - but that won't probably last either.

Wealth_data_dude

I see the chat sentiment, leaning towards GOOGLE and MSFT on stability, moats and footprint. Remember that software companies can really shrink if the 5 yr growth contracts.  I would go with NVDA and Amazon for their structural advantages on IA compute and logistics. Better numbers visibility. Second, I believe it's a question of who comes first close to AGI, and dominates the game. Highly unpredictable.

Boss1010

I want NVDA at $10

Altruistic-Bar-2137

NVDA getting back to 230 next week

Chris_Cornell_is_God

I told my dad we should buy NVDA in 2015. He talked me out of it. However I tell him it's good we didn't cause we would have sold as soon as we doubled and been happy....until later on. I once bought an oil stock at $2.50. I sold it at $4 a week later. I had a shit eating grin when I sold it. Nice dopamine rush. Two months later that stock was at $86.

hftrobo9285

NVDA freight train to ATH just left the station

blue-shirt-guy

Trimmed a lil NVDA today after the run this week. $135 cost basis. Felt like it was time to take a little profit

BruceMee

Amateur?!?! I’ve been losing money shorting NVDA for YEARS, sir. Years!

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

Magnificent 7; Apple, which you own, is one of them. They're essentially American ''big tech''. It's Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA). Avoid Tesla because it's extremely overvalued. The remaining 6 are great investments if you're willing to buy them and hold them for a long time. Since they're already very big companies they won't grow too much relatively, but you can be almost sure that you'll make a pretty solid % profit in, say, 5 or 10 years

natebro142

Jensen heard my prayers about my NVDA call spread bleeding out No longer down 80% 🤩

Embarrassed-Sky6890

Are meta and NVDA the only reason SPY and QQQ were green today because everything else is blood red

InvincibleRoman

haaaa amateur bear, NVDA barely moves when shorting it.  Now you know!  The challenge is making a money before losing it to theta.  

BruceMee

The good news is I called NVDA’s top with a short at 9:24 pacific. The bad news is it just stayed there, ALL-FUCKING-DAY. I’d really like my 7.5 hours back, please.

Midget_Molester10

tell me how MU is better than SNDK. So far it seems SNDK moves up or down much easier, like comparing AMD vs NVDA >MU bagholder here

jcpopm

The market does not care about multiples, it's just a fun talking point. The market cares about sustainability which is the whole point of multiples. It's the same reason people using P/E on NVDA are using it wrong - the market is not going to price a $5 trillion stock as a growrh story, and it's the same reason most financials trade with such low P/E. Tbe issue is not that the market doesn't believe memory companies are going to make a ton of money - the issue is that you own a share of the very distant *future* company and no one believes that the buildout will go on forever.

PalpateMe

Why did I sell my NVDA leaps at 203 this morning 🫠

juliakeiroz

\>he didnt buy the obvious NVDA dip just say you hate money already

fn_gpsguy

As others have said, you shouldn’t need a FA for an $85k account. For the size of your account and the below market rate that he’s charging to manage your account, I wouldn’t expect him to invest these $600 deposits more frequently than quarterly at best. That being said, I understand your concern about managing your $85k yourself. I would start small. Open a taxable brokerage account at one of the discount brokerages like Fidelity, Schwab or Vanguard and start making your $600 deposits with them. Consider buying a low cost S&P 500 ETF like FXAIX or VOO. Once you are comfortable in managing your new account, consider doing an ACATS transfer from your $85k account to the new one. The new company can assist you with that. Assuming the $85k account doesn’t have any proprietary investments, you should be able to transfer the contents of it “in-kind” without having to sell anything (and creating capital gains). Say for example you own 5 shares of NVDA. After doing the transfer, you’d still own those 5 shares of NVDA.

Odd-Block-2998

Take some air out? More like all air will be out with piling lawsuits while AAPL +30%, MU -70%, and NVDA -40%.

1daytothemoon

Could work. But I prefer to buy leaps when a catalyst is coming, as opposed to just the company doing well. Obviously that’s not wrong and you need a company to do well to have a good foundation. But I look for catalysts to determine the length of time and timing. For instance, NVDA I have calls for Sept because I know end of Aug is their earnings and July and Aug has a lot of companies earnings which could boost NVDA too. As opposed to an arbitrary expiration date just cause NVDA is good Good luck with it! Hope it goes well.

1daytothemoon

Should I have sold today my NVDA call? https://preview.redd.it/lueqrerfxgch1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=acebafc89cead2fbaae5ae9245657871fdd1994c

FigAccomplished6580

NVDA is gonna make me a lot of money next week

trsx5

Well to be fair to NVDA it's almost priced at like 5.5 trillion or whatever, i mean how much growth is left? Sometimes stocks are priced where they need to be..

ImJoeontheradio

I sold 25% of my NVDA. Just in case. Also I needed more tequila.

GneissFrog

NVDA has been dead money for a year now. Above 200? Next stop 180. Below 180? Next stop 200. Once a particular stock becomes such a massive options market, the action gets killed, despite blockbuster earnings, growth, projections. Too much hedging both ways for it to ever truly breakout. I think MU is entering that phase now. It won't matter how much demand there is for memory, or what their margins are, etc, etc, the stock is just going to be stuck in a range for a year, spinning in circles as the most valuable theta producer on the planet. Sell puts, sell calls, collect that premium.

Flat-Focus7966

NVDA - 225, META - 725, NFLX - 85 Before end of July

Flat-Focus7966

META & NVDA holding my port together like Spiderman in front of that train.......

Ok_Product8015

NVDA ain’t hear no bell

RougarouGumbo

happy NVDA day!

WordsHappenedHere

NVDA headed higher next week and MU headed lower. Sorry I don’t make the rules MUtards.

WordsHappenedHere

NVDA headed higher and MU headed lower next week. Sorry I don’t make the rules.

Thisispaartaaa

CHIPS....NVDA HAS BEEN consolodating for months...next leg up was/is imminent.

Flat-Focus7966

Shrek still protecting META & NVDA from bears

Rez-_-

I bought calls lotto for end of day cause I give up and I’ve lost everything so I was gambling on them rigging it and saving the weekly but I guess it’s just all resources going to pumping NVDA type of day

winston511

Need NVDA, MU and SKHYNIX to all announce stakes in CRDO to save my position at this point

shanked5iron

NVDA closes at 209.99, watch

shanked5iron

NVDA pinned hard under $210

ResearchingWhiskey

Now NVDA curling down and SPY is like "I don't even think about you" WTF is pumping SPY so hard

No_Tie9686

at the end of the day, if NVDA is going up, it doesn't matter that all the other stocks in the S&P 500 are going down

WordsHappenedHere

Mag7 finally waking up. NVDA running. And retards here want to pretend to be market top callers and buy worthless puts? Why not wait to see if SPY takes out $760 first? Clearly it’s going to try. This shot isn’t that hard guys. The trend is your friend. Say it again.

Ok_Product8015

I could be wrong but seems like MMs want to keep NVDA below 210 for opex

Embarrassed-Jump-212

NVDA just being pinned at 210 is depressing as hell. 🥸

winston511

I swear to god CRDO is down today just to fuck me. SPY is up, NVDA is up, memory is rallying. Everything it’s correlated to is up.

Muted-South4737

Checked in on NVDA, saw it is doing really well. Considered calls, then remembered the stock's abusive, shitty behavior. Bought 717 puts. Your move, dick NVDA.

Fhyzikz

NVDA's perfect price is 210

Purple_Bearkat

MSFT and NVDA up on the same day, can someone check to see if the market is actually feeling ok?

Successful-Grab6091

NVDA

1M-to-Zero

NVDA any news??

Fhyzikz

Anyone buying the top on NVDA today?

vCharged

NVDA under 210 here it comes

vCharged

Man wtf was that NVDA candle

Forward_Editor_5895

NVDA is finally breaking out after months of consolidation.

Cc-on

Requesting NVDA intraday reversal please and thank you

Perfect_Painter_7863

Why did I only buy 20 NVDA shares under 200 what a fumble and trade for ants

Ok_Product8015

God NVDA might actually go to 220+ next week

Noble_Tiger

Largest stock in SPY is NVDA and that is only 7.55% wym

vCharged

Damn someone bought $4m of NVDA 7/22 210 puts and it went vertical right after

Fhyzikz

Just bought a 0dte atm NVDA put just in case it decides to give up all of todays gains. If I'm wrong, I lose $50. Who gives a fuck

vCharged

$4m of 210 7/22 NVDA puts hit

vCharged

Bunch of NVDA puts just hit the tape

Emilio___Molestevez

if AI were a bubble $NVDA would be $500

GrossFleshSack

Perfect time to full port NVDA 0dte calls right here