NVDA

CALMER_THAN_YOU_

More like NVDA, AMD, GOOGL, MU, SKHY, suck it

Janubeary

NVDA? Wow

Complete_Attempt_249

NVDA

sciuridae

I thought stocks were safer than 0DTEs until I saw my NVDA bag evaporate overnight with margin. lol

Flat-Focus7966

Some people who bought calls at NVDA 245....will be loading puts tomorrow Different actions....same result

greenpride32

Yep this is where we see the difference between an investor and a speculator. I could look at the 5-7 year stock chart for GOOG MSFT AMZN NVDA and might conclude their businsses sufferred major setbacks a few times. Yet if I looked at 10Q's and 10K's instead it paints a different picture and the one I like to see.

originalpjy

10x $100p 12/27 PLTR @ $5 10x $100p 12/28 NVDA @ $4 50x $100P DELL 3/27 @ $.09 10x $30p CRWV 3/27 @ $1.35

Informal_Weekend9503

$NVDA and $META and have been for years.

i_empathetic

Seriously, "too big to fail" part 2 ain't gonna be government bailouts, its gonna be NVDA backstopping everything or starting to give sweetheart deals with lower margins to ease the pressure on their preferred partners.

Impossible_Way7017

Oh NVDA is definitely in the best position. Unless it’s customers go out of business.

lasooch

Hundreds of billions worth of NVDA GPUs that were ‘sold’ are in a similar limbo. Pop.

TheFamousHesham

NO. They literally got loans from NVDA to buy those GPUs... only 25,000 of Nscale's 400,000 contracted GPUs have been fully paid for by Nscale. I think it's about high time everyone sees the writing on the wall. The issue isn't that AI is useless or expensive, but that there literally isn't enough money in the world for this build out... and NVDA is adding fuel to the fire by lending its own customers, basically ensuring that if the market goes belly up... all companies crash and burn (even the legitimately good ones).

No_Proof_2736

NVDA with a healthy lead in front of AMZN, AAPL and AMD AMD was tied for 2nd place not long ago but dropped to 4th 🤬

HungryColquhoun

If you say so. The paper gains are only a little less than NVDA over the same period.

SpecialGrapefruit208

NVDA

ALMessenger

This is crazy . . . broad index funds aren’t what they were 10 years ago. What happens to S&P 500 when NVDA has its mean reversion? Or is the purchase of the broad index fund now a bet that NVDA never has that mean reversion?

tano-01

It kind of is. Just like the deepseek drop, CXMT suddenly announces that they’re going to produce RAM and so semiconductors routed. But there’s other factors as well. Interest rates / bond yields. AI company profits and their borrowing. Inflation. High tech valuations. The rest of the economy. But build out is continuing… Yes. Lots of earnings reports starting this week so let’s see what happens. I’ll be watching a few closely, META, Google, Hynix, WDC, SNDK, MSFT. I’m hoping for a rebound. Not sure if this is the end just yet. End of November NVDA reports.

l0gicgate

NVDA is my only position. $1.3m

Lugoe

I mean GOOG and MSFT are both doing the spending not gaining from it so that's kind-of a moot point and NVIDIA even if sales drop %70 of expected income they are still gonna be making more by 2027 than they were last year. I also just don't see NVDA's sales dropping that much long term even with an AI CAPEX decline

music_is_gud

GOOG does more like 100B a quarter. Why is that not a fraud? NVDA does like 70-100B a quarter too... Yeah you are high as a mofo

ScantBureaucracy12

your problem isn't NVDA or TSM specifically, it's that you went from a setup you were comfortable with to one that's making you anxious in the span of a single trading day 2 years is a weird in-between horizon, long enough to ride out some volatility but short enough that a prolonged slump could leave you stuck if you actually need the money then. being all-in on big tech when that's already the crowded trade isn't ideal if you're losing sleep over it if you're already second guessing yourself this hard maybe keep what you bought but next time just ease into a position instead of deploying everything at once. nothing wrong with taking a swing but if the regret is eating at you that's your gut saying you overcorrected

ThePotentialHD

NVDA Shares, AAPL LEAPs.

Bosto2025

NVDA and SNDK. So my position is anal right now.

Kidatsfresh

NVDA HYPE and Cash

MstHaze

GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, TSMC, MU all long-term hold

SpiritualApricots

Meta and NVDA 😒 💀

Hot-Pineapple7877

GOOGL, MSFT, and NVDA. Yeah I'm basic, I also don't care.

Karzap

NVDA

OG_Tater

I have 3,000 shares of NVDA at $12. Survivor bias. Otherwise it’s mostly VT and SPY.

BimmerBro98

So NVDA go up or down?

Mediocre_Gap2236

I’ve already accepted that AI has invalided about 15 years of technical experience I have and what made me a highly paid accountsnt, but yes I am a candidate subject to be laid off. But I am also hot shit with execs right now because I keep up with the latest AI development, experiment with AI agents in my spare time, and push things to the limit with AI implementation at work, so I’ve just been doing AI facilitation and training sessions in the new found time that I have. I still do my old role, nothings changed from that front, other than the fact that I’ve automated it all with Python/SQL scripts and connected to our systems with MCPs for end to end automation. I just monitor that the agents I’ve set up doing that flow are working as intended. I’ve full ported my savings into tech about 6 months ago , GOOG NVDA MSFT SPCX and SNOW Once the mass layoffs (including to me) happen these shares should also reflect the corresponding shift in value.

DubiousChemistry

It was a couple months after the tariff bottom, growth was recovering and AMD had a really good story with the MI series chips being able to take market share off NVDA.

GhettoMuppet

bring her onstage for NVDA earnings to really pump

JerseyshoreSeagull

None of what Doctor Chang said is "unhinged" all of it is practical and plausible and a very likely scenario. If he were to say "buy NVDA" and Yolo. I'd be skeptical. But war, midterms, a crash... these are all things more likely than me making money in the stock market

Ratherbeeatingpizza

Wait for a bounce than ditch or trim some of those. You don’t need to make it back where you lost it. And then buy some NVDA, APPL, TSM and something like Costco, Netflix etc and then get an index fund or 2. SPMO, QQQ, for example. Still growth but won’t Titanic in a correction.

Medical-Lecture-6053

no because CRWV has to blow up to 30's first and force NVDA to backstop them

LawyersGunsAnd_Money

Calling this normal rotation while Treasuries rally and CoreWeave debt gets smoked is missing the bigger picture. That's credit repricing, not just profit-taking. Now Anthropic is reportedly offering Blackstone north of 10% on chip financing, versus 8.5% on an earlier deal. Demand for compute can be enormous and the economics can still be terrible. And hyperscalers needing capacity doesn't mean they're obligated to rescue anyone's balance sheet. They'll protect their compute, not necessarily the creditors or equity holders. I'd be watching credit spreads a hell of a lot closer than another oversold NVDA chart.

la_lunamoon

lol panic sold my $NVDA puts for +400k. oops.

Ok_Cry7572

think we see a huge gap up on Monday, led by semis. Not a chance they head down for the 11th day in a row. Looking for a 2-3% reversal on $NVDA specifically

Legitimate_Risk_1079

NVDA | NVIDIA - Current Price: $214.13 (Friday close) - Market Cap: ~$5.17T - Bull Target (12–18m): $290–$330 - Bear Target: $175–$190 - Upside: +35% to +54% - Downside: -11% to -18% - Reward-to-Risk: ~3.0:1 🟢 - Success Probability: 70% - Expected ROI: ~+26% - Forward P/E: ~17.7x 🟢 - Debt-to-Equity: ~0.17 🟢 - Cash + Marketable Securities: ~$56.6B 🟢 - Dividend Yield: ~0.5% - TTM Revenue: ~$303B - Q2 Revenue: $96.2B, +106% YoY 🟢 - Q2 Data Center Revenue: $89.0B, +117% YoY 🟢 - Q2 Net Income: $59.7B, +126% YoY 🟢 - Gross Margin: 75.0% 🟢 - Share Count: -1.0% YoY 🟢 - Buyback Authorization: $235B remaining through FY2028 🟢 - Price Trend: Strong long-term uptrend, currently correcting from $243.37 52-week high 🟢 - Bull-Case Market Cap: ~$7.0T–$8.0T 🔴 - Comparable Companies: AMD, Broadcom, TSMC - Risk: Moderate - Conviction: 8/10 - Grade: B+ NVIDIA remains the dominant AI-compute company with extraordinary growth, profitability, margins and cash generation. At $214.13, the valuation has become surprisingly reasonable relative to its growth, but the $5.2 trillion starting market cap means even a $300+ target requires trillions of dollars of additional valuation, so despite the excellent fundamentals and reward-to-risk, I keep NVDA at B+ rather than A-range.

B1g_C4p1T4l

logging off for a month is honestly the best part of the plan lol. just know MU, hynix, NVDA, MRVL and CRWV mostly move on the same AI capex story, so it's one big bet more than 6 dip buys imo

Quirky_Push_2506

Monday closing price SPY: 650 QQQ: 500 MU: 500 SNDK: 800 NVDA: 150 SPCX: 0.99

Perfect_Painter_7863

I really got 60k worth of SOXL at 103 50k of GGLL at break even same with 50k of AMZU and 11k worth of AMZN 245 call for Jan. Not counting my NVDA and NBIS.

JJZinna

S&P PLTR NVDA CVNA CRWV or just YES?

FuckingJPMAlgos

https://preview.redd.it/txhnnufsq2wh1.png?width=320&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0820af3773a3ad4092bae89bf04fc5fea0a2e59 Fuck you INTC HOOD MSTR MARA RIOT CRCL NVDA CRWV SPCX

refinedwarrior

I meant down not done and it’s not loss until you sell and I don’t do options so how is it a shock? I bought 370 shares of SNDK at 1715 refusing to sell this stock at a loss - and it’s been downhill since Oct 7th when my orders filled. Then NVDA due to market conditions has been dumping too. Why would I sell when it’s not due to fundamentals but market conditions. And not options and it’s been a week. Only reason SNDK stings is bc I didn’t want to get back in on Oct 7th but broke my own rule and used margin so I’m just paying interest seeing it crash this hard. In the end, if bitching I do is related to trading and not health or more important things like a roof over my head, I’ll consider myself blessed. But yes, mine was def degen and never something I’d advise anyone to do LOL but congrats to those who shorted…should’ve joined lol

refinedwarrior

Def not alone - done 150k just since Oct 7th in SNDK & NVDA 😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫

CascadianSailor

If you measure "best" by percentage return, then my best was buying Tesla (TSLA) in November 2012 at a split-adjusted $2/share, and selling the last shares of that lot in December 2024 for $457 per share. I bought more shares many times and sold many shares off to trim some profit along the way, but if you trace one share's journey, that was my best. If you measure "best" by total dollar return, then it has to be NVDA. Between December 2020 and May 2021, I bought NVDA 4 times at a total cost basis of $13.5k. I've sold some shares 13 times since May 2023, trimming some profit each time to bring it back to a comfortable percentage of my portfolio, for total realized gains of $60k, and I still have another $59k in unrealized gains, for a total gain of $119k. The worst by percentage return is Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), which I bought in 2020, then sold at a 99.37% loss after it collapsed in 2023, but even that near-total loss was only $3.3k The worst by total dollar return is Upstart (UPST). I put 18k into this company from June 2021 to January 2022, only to see it drop to $1.5k by December 2022. I held on to those shares, since $1.5k is such a small bet at this point, and I still believe in the company's long-term vision. I bought another $1.5k worth in May 2023, bringing my total cost basis to $19.5k, but I don't want to sink any more money into this company, so I've held back from buying more shares. I haven't sold any shares, and it's now worth $4.7k, which is still a small bet for me, but I'm not sure how much longer I'll hold on. If they don't turn around in the next year or two, I'll sell it and take the write-off on taxes. Another way to measure "worst" is by looking at how much I could have made if I had invested in an S&P 500 instead. By this measure, Disney (DIS) is my worst. A little over 10 years ago, I bought $2.6k worth of DIS. Today, those shares are worth $2.9k (I still own them), which is a modest 11% gain (19% if you include dividends). However, if I had invested that same $2.6k into an S&P 500 Index Fund, it would be worth $10.6k, plus $0.8k in dividends for a total of $11.4k. $11.4k / $2.6k = 4.38, so that's a 338% gain over a decade. So, the way I see it, I lost 319% (19% - 338%) by investing in Disney instead of an S&P 500 Index Fund over the last decade. But overall, the lesson is that all it takes is a few big winners to make up for many losers. The most I can lose is my cost basis, as demonstrated by SIVB, but I can gain much more than that with my winners, as demonstrated by TSLA and NVDA. In the end, my gains from just TSLA and NVDA are higher than the losses from my 18 worst picks. But those losers are the price of admission to finding the winners. If I'm scared of the losers, then I won't take the risk of investing in the future winners. Also, you have to let the winners run. If I had sold TSLA or NVDA at some arbitrary gain of 100% or even 1000%, then I would have lost out on the gains beyond that. Winners tend to keep on winning. Once you find a winner, hold on to it rather than searching for the "next big thing."

oh_no_the_claw

$2 trillion is not normal because vibes and NVDA chips expire like loaves of bread.

bubblegum-rose

The sheer balls you need to short NVDA

Psyops101

Week was brutal, all across the boards. I’m down as are lots of others. I’m day trading successfully, focused on beat down blue chips like GS, MSFT, CAT. I day trade options only for leverage, my daily average has been a solid $3,000 a day. Still, this infusion hasn’t upped my overall account. unfortunately I bought CALLS ITM with Jan expirations when sndk was bouncing around 1600 to 1650. I’ve ridden them down to - $90,000 in negative equity. Smaller positions, calls in MU, TSLA.SPAX, STX, ALAB, NVDA with plenty of negative equity. No, I didn’t grab highs. Has the bubble popped, I don’t agree. I see shorts, robo negative articles, day traders really f&$king the daily movement up. I’ve also seen large block trades coming in at interesting levels, the highest were at $1650 to $1600. My bet is by March ‘27, there will be people in here bragging about stock or calls they bought in the $1200 - $1300 range that by March will be huge in the money. SNDK may dip to $1000 again, 1150 to 1200 more likely. I’m buying put options for me day trades, no calls until I see those lower numbers. Loading up (stock) on GS, CAT, MSFT and NVDA.

ResidualSodium

Because it’s artificial. In that, RAM, GPUs, and other components are being set aside to get these data centers up and running. Also, see RAM producer collusion. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if in 2 years we had an equivalent of ASIC chips for AI, making the GPUs NVDA is making currently obsolete before their contracts with these centers are up.

PSLGods

You Lose, NVDA Wins

Sweaty_Platypus69

$NVDA will still be around when you pass your shares to your grandkids.. not so sure about $CRWV though :kek:

Charming_Raccoon4361

dude its over, NVDA 8% of GPUs goes to CRWV and CRWV will delist soon

PSLGods

Buy calls on NVDA yolo 420 bong

PSLGods

Anyone else be selling calls and puts on AAPL and NVDA?

TheOpeningBell

You can have actively managed SMAs. Imagine you own an S&P SMA. Let's also say you already own 1MM of MSFT stock. So number 1, direct indexing is also about screen outs so you screen MSFT out of your SMA as you don't need more. Then to your question let's say there's a correction in NVDA, GOOGL, AAPL, and say AMZN. 1. Sell those positions at a loss. 2. Buy an ETF that has the loss positions at a decent weighting so portfolio direction exposure is roughly the same. 3. Wait 31 days. 4. Sell the ETF, and re buy the individual positions. Signed, CFP in the industry with years of SMA experience.

SpiderWil

NVDA isn't going to the toilet but it's gonna have a price correction for sure

TickTockTaudit

Qs took a 6% haircut. Now tech will pump until NVDA earnings and then sell the news. We’ve all seen this before

PSLGods

thoughts on NVDA? pill me

pickle9977

You are way off, and are missing a key datapoint. The profit margins at tsmc, Samsung, NVDA, mu etc. Their margins are not only insane at 70+%, they are increasing, why, because everytime some moron gives any of these tech companies more money they just turn around and try to buy the same stuff. It’s a supply constraint, there are only so many chips we can make in a year, the amount of money we have pumped into this over two years far outstrips that supply. Given these margins the collateral underlying these loans is worth less than 1/3rd of the borrowed amount, it’s like taking out a $120k car loan for a Honda Civic. This is quite literally the definition of dumb money, and if the debt holders are the dumb money the shareholders are sheep waiting to be skinned.

ALMessenger

I’ll be pretty shocked if they don’t quickly rally back . . . rally are reflexive at this point. It will take sustained bad news to kill this market I think the going in assumption should be that what is happening to Coreweave this week will happen to NVDA and the other big AI players at the end of this and that everyone in S&P 500 will experience what you are going through This is a very dangerous market and people with FOMO will not let themselves de-risk

moorhound

Alright, I'm a little buzzed, pretty high, and bearin the fuck out. There is an actual fucking apocalypse on the brink in the AI sector. The entire lynchpin of this thing relies of AI inference being hardware-intensive; it's why NVDA popped, it's why neoclouds popped, it's why SOXL popped. It's why power transformers, nuclear, glassware, copper mining, photonics, and every nook and cranny of the AI rally has happed. The *entire underpinning* of this AI boom is that this magic thinking machine requires a lot of stuff to make it happen. Samsung Littlebit destroyed all of that. It an AI weight quantization technique that decimates - in a literal sense - the RAM requirements for model weights to function, while retaining most of the model's quality. There's other AI compression techniques that LittleBit can be combined with. It's gonna be the thing, technology demands it. Samsung even released the paper and technique for free, under a non-commercial open license. It might shape up to be one of the most pivotal actions in human history; they made native, locally-hostes personal AI accessable to the common man. But it absolutely *fucks* the AI industry. Every company went full-steam to gain an edge on a frontier market, and they all did it with the same thing in mind; local inference was so resource-intensive that it was unfeasible, it required too much RAM to run on a phone or single computer. The cloud model was the only reasonable way to do it, so they went along with what that requires., which is $750 billion dollars worth of capex to build the datacenters to process all this shit and beam it to everybody. Littlebit2 combined with compatible AI optimization tech like TurboQuant (KV cache compressor) allows formidable models to be ran or hardware people can buy. It's a panacea to the RAM shortage; after QAT, it'll shrink memory requirements of shit like Kimi K3 (2.8T parameter) from 1.4TB of HBM RAM to as low as 200GB of *DDR RAM*. 16B models could be shrunk down to run comfortably on most midrange+ phones. It is just too fucking good not to take off. Samsung published the first study results [back in February](https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13771), but it just started making Korean circles last week, it's why their institutionals have been dumping ass. Anybody with the compute and the knowhow can run QAT on open-weight models; Chinese models will probably be rolling out with these by November. OpenAI, Anthropic, and all the other fuckos were so focused on the threat of someone else achieving anything closer to AGI-focused high inference that they didn't consider the threat of optimization towards functional inference; no one needs the AI in their roomba to solve millennium problems, they just need it to do its job, which lower weight focused models are efficient at. US AI companies will copy the formula, but they're married to this datacenter buildout and all of the debt it entails. Dropping damn near a trillion dollars into what's essentially pooling RAM, and then finding out you need way less RAM, isn't an option when the contracts are already signed and the concrete is already poured. Besides server-side AI, there *is no other need* for this much compute, we were talking about doubling the US power grid for this shit. We'll still need a lot of it for training, but everyone's been racking debt under r the premise that inference would take even more. Everyone stuck in that $750B investment will have a depreciated asset. CRWV will go to zero, a lot of their debt is collateralized on their GPU racks and if they depreciate past amortization rate their creditors can call in the debt at-will, so it will be torn literally to pieces. Don't get me wrong, I'm extremely hyped for this tech. It takes the idea of the thinking machine away from the monopolistic grasp of sociopaths like Altman, Zuck, etc and allows almost everybody to have their own personal, private, non-subscription, ad-free, auxiliary brain. But for the love of God cowboy, *hedge your fucking shit*. The shitstorm is coming, randy. The shitbirds are up there, flying around, ready to take a big old shit. Especially on CRWV.

Ceyenne18

NVDA not taking a big hit is assuring because it means this sell-off is not an AI bubble popping.

Bagholder147

It's like Coreweave doesn't make money. NVDA has it hands in so many companies. It could never fail.......

moorhound

He's not dumb. He knows what's coming, he's known for a while, and it's why NVIDIA has put their stake into open-weight. NVDA will live because the world will still need high-context models for big shit; most will not live because it's no longer the only option for inference.

Ok_Cry7572

Jensen Huang told Bloomberg today that the AI selloff is "all going to pass," and honestly I get why he'd say it. $NVDA closed at $214.13, down 1.4% on the day and about 6.6% on the week, and it's been lower on 7 of the last 8 days while chip stocks just had their longest losing streak since 2008.

timtact0e

Been investing in stocks for past 5 years and have been in red ever since. My one and only winner/highlight is when I bought shares of NVDA at $98 at the time over a year ago. And I sold ALL of it couple weeks back when it hit $230.

Glittering_Dig3798

Just buy NVDA if you want that exposure then imo

Acceptable_Bed_6033

Core weave. I think this panic sell off is over done. Most of their business is sold out through 2027 and NVDA has a vested interest in keeping them alive. Once earnings start to come in suspect we’ll see a rebound

Embarrassed-Bank2835

I don’t think buying NVDA/TSM is automatically the mistake. The bigger change was going from 50% cash to basically fully invested and concentrating even more into the same general tech/AI theme. With only a 2-year horizon, that’s the part I’d think hardest about. Two years can be plenty of time for great companies to still be underwater if valuations compress or the cycle turns. If you still like all four businesses, I wouldn’t make the next decision based on today’s price action. I’d ask whether you’d be comfortable holding this exact portfolio through a 25–30% drawdown. If the answer is no, the position sizing is probably the issue, not necessarily the companies. Personally I’d rather trim back to a cash level that lets me sleep and keep some dry powder than force myself into an all-in/all-out decision.

Critical-County1152

Nothing wrong with buying the dip, but that list is really one bet split into six tickers. MU and SK hynix both got hit by the same CXMT DRAM headline this week, and CRWV's whole business is renting out NVDA GPUs, so if the AI capex story wobbles they all drop together. Could easily work out, I just wouldn't call it diversified.

Open_Pollution_8038

NVDA RDDT NFLX MU HD Those are my picks from that list. You missed GOOG and MSFT. 

20hrfast

I sold all of my MSFT and NVDA and bought SCHD. 30,000$ 2 days ago.

noradrenalinenjoyer

Feller, no one would call you retarded for calling NVDA in 2015. Why? Because NVDA is fun to buy. — Hi Dad, I play games and bought my first stock it is nvidia as well. Fun? I bet numerous people bought it this way cause it is fun. Drones are not fun, and I don’t see any sexy runner with a good marketing so far.

prana_fish

"A fund blowing up" is just media cover for legit real selling. Usually the AI trade bounces back, but this time, with Anthropic's ARR disappointment, it seems like will take a long time for any new snapback. Like, usual pump catalysts have all been exhausted. Oh you think $MU or $NVDA making a trillion in a quarter gonna save it? Nuh-uh. Peak cycle narrative.

sum_dude44

NVDA, AMD, Meta up for month. So is SPY.

Public-Quarter-2753

My dad passed in 2019 and I sold his brand new car. The dealership would only give me 25k for a car he had just paid 45k for. I was pissed the car took a 20k loss but I put ALL into NVDA/PLTR. I’m sure my dad has had a good laugh over it.

Public-Quarter-2753

Winners: NVDA 3500 shares (2019) PLTR 2000 shares (2019). Still holding. Losers: BABA, PLUG, TLRY and many others I don’t want to remember.

itsalwayscalls

Then don't buy it. Keep watching the train fly by. If this company is good enough to be invested in by MSFT, GOOG, NVDA, and AMZN then it's good for me. These 4 votes of confidence/companies have the highest proven ROIC of companies. These are proven compounders of wealth. So. Here's what I can safely assume. These four exceptional companies saw investing in them as more rewarding than investing in themselves. And they are, again, the greatest compounders of wealth of all freaking time. Reply all you want. I do not care.

Brave-Temperature495

Naw for me it was the -$500k in NVDA and DRAM

spilledonwhite

I genuinely appreciate your feedback... I'm just looking for the next big thing like everyone else... NVDA in 2015 or SNDK at $40. I'm sure if I made a post about graphics cards and Nvidia in 2015 everybody would have called me retarded. you don't think that if in 5 years 90% of small packages around the world being delivered by drones would result in a permanently increased demand for replacement motors and batteries and parts that wear out? and military drones that constantly need the latest and greatest technology and weapons compatibility? like I said, your comment was insightful and something to think about. I posted asking for the bear case and you gave it.

TickTockTaudit

I don’t think the market is crashing. We are going into tech earnings. I’m expecting an aggressive rebound with expanding EPS, back to ATHs. I trade the Qs. I’m saying Thanksgiving because NVDA earnings is ALWAYS Sell the News and it fucks everything up. So ride calls and 3x bull funds and get the hell outta there before NVDA reports.

spilledonwhite

You are taking the time to reply and give criticism, which I appreciate. I generally think it is a fool's errand to try to beat the market and have 95% of my money in boring index funds. I have 5% of my money in its own account specifically for a fucking moon shoot. Looking for something like buying NVDA in 2015 or SNDK at 40. Willing to hold a year or more and stomach volatility best I can as long as I still believe in it. Do you mostly swing trade or do you have high conviction long holds? I like Fastenal but they are high right now and by no means a moon shoot. They have performed well this year and are a good buffer to tech. They are expanding internationally and implementing better software systems AI bullshit. They trade at a premium because they are run well and have a culture of not having debt. I almost bought Lowe's at the recent bottom and it would have paid off.

SomePolack

AMD has some serious problems tbh I don’t dislike them but there’s reason they’re behind NVDA

phauxkneet

Kick flip 3x gains over NVDA https://preview.redd.it/6cdy6oh0mwvh1.jpeg?width=782&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30436291d67fca263e37846a88be57cc0a09f077

DoubtNeither3927

NVDA alone doesn't tell the story. It's up roughly 20% in the last 12 months, sure, but over a ~3-5 year period? Way, way higher. But NVDA is growing revenue AND profit, which is rare right now in the sector. Why? Because it's selling the shovels for the gold rush. Even then, through circular financing, it is under-writing a lot of the companies buying it's GPUs, which is troubling in itself, but can also explain some of their revenue growth. Now to the broader AI play... That's where the bubble is. Put simply, the cost of AI is far, far outstripping the revenue. Not by a bit, by A LOT. Some would argue that (like dotcom or AWS) the capex is to drive revenue growth and will pay back X-fold over the mid-long term. But that's not how the tech works, their main expense items aren't scaling (and likely won't ever) to support revenue growth. - they are pumping billions into DC build outs and stocking them with GPUs that have a very short life (2-3 years), that won't generate the revenue to justify payback - even then, roughly half their computing power goes into model development and training. They try to argue that's R&D and will diminish over time, but it's hard to see how this isn't an operational expense - I.e. if they stop training models, they become less useful or obsolete (model drift)... - then there's inference... What they generally claim they're profitable on. If we discount those first two massive expense items, we are profitable when we offer up our models to users as the cost of their use covers the cost of the compute used to serve them. Sure, but you can't ignore the first two. And, the more people use your models, the more compute you need, I.e. it's not scaling. Don't look at NVDA to be the bellwether for the bubble. There are lots of pets.com examples out there. Last week, in Australia, Firmus pulled an IPO priced in the 10's of billions for a company making $50m in revenue and no profit that had two DC leases and a bunch of ambitious plans, nothing more. To me that's an early indicator that the bubble is starting to deflate as people start to realise the math isn't mathing.

Sickranchez87

Best: Bought 30k OPEN shares at 1.37, sold at 4.60-100k gain SNDK- bought 100 shares at $560, sold at $1900 Worst- BBBY- bought at $16 and rode it down to zero Bought 300 shares of NVDA January 2022, sold when it dropped 50% for a loss instead of just holding and becoming a millionaire🙃

beeArebel

If you liked $NVDA at $230, you'll love it at $150

hallucehistory

NVDA has essentially been selling to many of its customers on credit and it’s looking like many of those customers may not actually be able to pay. Therefore, NVDA’s  revenue numbers are being discounted to try and arrive at a fair value for what we think they can actually collect. 

Past-Option2702

The earnings growing part is where things get dicey since NVDA and every other stock are not priced on earnings that have already been booked. Ever heard of Coreweave by the way?

Tay_Tay86

You really think all the consequences of a bubble come out in a single week? The fire starts at the edges and moves up in quality as pressure builds. The indexes get drawn down by losses in the worst of the worst, if fundamentals don't change, that pressure eventually starts to pull at the highest quality. This is why when things move down NVDA is slow to react and so is AAPL. This particular behavior is a strategy that wall street uses. They will sell sketchy stuff and pile into "fortresses" aka the highest quality and strongest balance sheets. They wait out the storm, and then come back out. This is because they MUST remain invested at all times based on hedge fund rules. I think the piece you're missing is that these things play out in a PROCESS, not an instant.

AdCool3339

Thanks man, appreciate the detailed reply. Planning to hold for about 2 years, maybe longer. Just curious, why aren’t you too convinced about NVDA?

zer00eyz

\> TSM How long do you plan on owning this company. If it's 2 years, maybe longer than that, you will be fine. They are getting amazing yields out of their new nodes, and those will run for decades. TSMC has used all their capital to build without taking on debt, and are still flush with cash. They know how to manage their factories to profitability and then keep them running and profitable in the long term. They are sold out for the next 2 years, and could have taken 'higher margins' - they are a company that has some deference to long term relationships and their value (its how they keep the lagging capacity full). \> NVDA ehh - good luck. \> AMZN, GOOGL,  I dont think they are going to see much movement based on their sustainable PE - AMZN hid its spending and google is such a web that they have plenty of places to hid things. A Waymo spinoff would be a massive win for them and a place to burry debt.

bearhunter429

#how much each stock dropped from its 52-week high: #SPY: -2.5% #NVDA: -13% #GOOG: -17% #MSFT: -17% #AMZN: -14% #META: -10% #AVGO: -34% #MU: -30% #AMD: -20% #If SPY drops 10% these stocks will all die LMAO🤌

Junior-Albatross4614

You are right, it is not going to influence the price of semis, but the price increase of semis will influence the price of soxx. The kind people here have convinced me there is no viable option play, so the question now is when to buy, as I feel it will go up in value. NVDA is $214 now and (I feel) it is worth more than that.

piltdown_manchild

Your strawman argument is missing the point. * AI is useful and valuable and is here to stay. * The level of over-investment in LLMs and data centers represents a huge bubble. Two things can be true at once. The internet worked out great, so did railroads. Both were accompanied by speculative bubbles. Positions: (long GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA) - You lose more money trying to anticipate the crash than during the crash itself. https://preview.redd.it/gkcntxvwuvvh1.jpeg?width=1796&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b8a76b280ebc7701cceee20033c32ed9bb527ab

Unhappy-Average-4859

My crack head gambling account is in deep with NVDA 240c 10/19 Bought them week or two ago at 4.30 lmao have been steadily averaging down to a nice .20 I’ll be showering in my mansion 10/21

Ok_Cry7572

NVDA Double-Bottom and An Overhead Gap To Fill. As I said Powerful Rally is Coming out of the exhaustion signal. Shakeout capitulation day Friday. #WTI has a sell signal. Fire Sale! Buy Buy Buy!