Reddit Posts
Existing PGR contract price not adjusted after special dividend
Progressive Corporation (PGR): A Hidden Gem in a Tough Auto Insurance Market?
Tech destroyed - is it time to rotate to defensives at ATHs amidst volatility?
Bill Ackman Insurance acquisition TBA soon at 09/30 annual meeting?
Bill ackman is looking to make a 1-3B acquisition and it can be announced soon. Any guesses?
ROOT dropped 28% after blowout earnings (13.2% rev beat & 662% EPS beat) & now trades at less than 10% of peers valuations.
insurers and market brutalized
insurers and market brutalized
insurers and market brutalized today
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
ROOT insurance blowout earnings & CVNA exercising warrants
What financial stocks are worth investing in?
Progressive stock is up 2.09% today (insurance stocks), with everything else in deep red.
Progressive Falls Short of Earnings, Does the PGR Bull-Run Finally End?
time to short the absolute fuck out of NVDA - P/E of 120 with stalled revenue and declining earnings growth
Insane trading day. Market may have been green but I made this money from puts
Shorting Progressive $PGR: A Comprehensive Review
A Beautiful Short Position in the Making. $PGR
A beautiful short position is born today. $PGR
This short is absolutely writing itself. Jesus. $PGR
$PGR - The Insurance Business Is Good, Until It's Not....
Let's Talk About Lemonade: Analysis and Discussion
Has Allstate (ALL) dropped into “undervalued” territory?
How I use Data Science to Recognise Patterns in Earnings Movements
How I use Data Science to Recognise Patterns in Earnings Movements
How I Use Data Science to Recognise Patterns of Earnings Movements
How I use Data Science to Recognise Patterns in Earnings Movements
How I Use Data Science to Recognise Patters Around Earnings
Pattern Recognition of Market Reactions around Earnings Releases
Aflac's duck commercials 'doubled its business in three years': CEO
$PGR Progressive Corp. announces massive hiring spree to support growth - 6,400 new employees by this year
PGR (Progressive Corp) - Going with the Flo?
NASDAQ (ROOT) aka Root Insurance: Shorts covered 65% to 15% in 2 months, daily volume doubled, Selling in Public and Buying in Darkpools
LMND - an over valued insurance stock pretending to be a tech stock?
Progressive ($PGR) Long-term? Thoughts? Could this be an indirect EV play (people paying for more than liability to insure their EVs?)
Mentions
If you expect interest rates to rise, which is what the data from FedWatch and Polymarket suggest, there are several options: * Banks: $JPM; $BAC; WFC; $USB. * Brokerage firms: for example, $SCHW. * Insurance companies: $ALL; $PGR. * BDCs with predominantly floating-rate portfolios: $ARCC; $MAIN.
PGR If 'AI bubble' pops people will still need cars, and legally mandated insurance, at similar rates. AI accelerating might hurt them; it depends on how insurance model evolves to fit self driving cars.
Ya PGR and other insurers are safe plays right now
you saw PGR get killed on earnings and thought a shitco insurer would do well? interesting
God damnit. Was going to take a big set and forget position in PGR and it's fucking mooning after hours
ok i know its not a wsb stock but progressive insurance PGR?? will it go up tmrw??????????????? pleaz
TJX, JPM, PGR There are many hundreds of stonks to choose from dummy
glad I passed on PGR yolo, yikes.
There's at least one fellow here holding $PGR for earnings Godspeed brother
I loaded up on PGR when it pulled back to 194, Visa, Mastercard, and Moodys as well.
another garbage earnings calendar missing so many stocks with billion dollar market caps PSMT? PGR? VIST? WAFD? NRIX? H? but of course they include garbage low market cap low liquidity stocks like SAR
Insurance and reinsurance an often overlooked category if you want non-tech. Companies like PGR (Progressive) and WRB (W. R. Berkley) have pricing power that is less dependent on the macro cycle than most sectors. PGR has compounded at roughly 16% over the last decade - the business is straightforward and the moat is distribution more than IP.
The great WSB bot messed up PGR's date. It is Jul 15th and not Jun 17th
PGR is basically a cheaper version of BRK.B
What's going on with insurance stocks right now? Several big names down big in the last year: * BRO: -51% * AJG: -41% * PGR: -32%
Insurance like ALL or PGR (PGR is 15% of my portfolio). Pharma like JNJ or Merck. PFE has a nice dividend. everyone oughta have an energy stock of some sort like CVX, XOM, or just buy the XLE etf. Hold something outside the us like EWZ or EWC. I think this AI event is a wave, like Josh brown said. It’ll end like everything does, but you’ve gotta ride it.
I sold Nu also after a couple of brief holds. I don’t trust the company and money into them is better deployed elsewhere. I went into PGR and have added to Uber, AMZN, CPRT.
You guys should invest in companies like PGR (insurance) and PFE(Pfizer) much more stable
Maybe she was saying your not in 'Progressive (PGR)' and you just misheard her
I’m been building an Amazon position and I’m liking PGR as well. BN is relatively stable with lots of growth prospects.
Can we stop with the lying bullshit? You did not read 98 10-K's. PGR's 10-K, alone, is 185 pages long. You did that 98x in ONE DAY? Fuck off.
You lose a lot of credibility from me when you say PGR UNH NFLX COST are safe haven stocks
A lot of people think splitting between tech + gold + international ETFs counts as diversification, but when things drop, they all drop together. Different wrappers, same trade. What actually works is finding businesses driven by completely different forces. Defense stocks (LMT, NOC) and insurance (PGR) genuinely move on their own because their revenue has nothing to do with AI hype or consumer spending. The key isn't finding "uncorrelated assets." It's finding businesses whose revenue depends on forces that have nothing to do with what drives the S&P 500. One more tip. If you watch 13F filings, you can see where big institutions are moving money. When hedge funds start quietly trimming tech and adding boring sectors like defense or utilities, that's usually a signal that correlation regimes are shifting. I've been tracking this lately and it's been pretty useful.
Caught these falling knives: GOOG, HOOD, CRWD, AMZN, INTR, TMO, PGR
I bought PGR UNH with covered calls I bought small amounts of CVNA put.
I bought Progressive PGR because I think Flo is hot, but there is no action after hours. May need to dump her.
Insurance stocks like PGR have been resilient. As 10Y goes up, this stock will do better.
KNSL PGR WRB ACGL look like buys to me
Yes if you look around enough, one example would be PGR but there are others, just throwing out a random ticker I own, I always have an eye on it.
Is PGR progressive?
RDDT, PGR, HOOD easy money lol
jokes on you, i bought PGR and TRV
Is PGR value territory now? I'm getting tempted
I'm liking the 5 year projections I have for Brown&Brown Insurance (BRO). They are still digesting an acquisition completed in August and should begin to climb next quarter. PGR also seems good. Home builders are still hanging low until something breaks which will pull out the floor and set up the recovery....or the market may come back and surprise me.
Now I think PGR strike options prices are **not** going to change for PGR. So from another comment I went further and looked up what BKE did with their Special Divs (they give special Divs all the time) they did it on the Ex-Div date (and not the pay date). So the Ex-Div date for PGR special div is today. I see the call prices for PGR dropped instead of them changing the strike prices. Interesting. I don't think BKE ever did from my memory. Here is the last one from BKE where they did adjust it. . I just checked and here is one they did recently for BKE and it will be adjusted on January 15, 2026. You can get the OCC document here (it's a PDF download) [https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=57884](https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=57884) *Strike prices will be reduced by 3.00. (For example, a strike of 17.50 will be reduced to 14.50; a strike of 85.00 will be reduced to 82.00)*
No adjustment per OCC. Google infomemo PGR to get the OCC memo.
I've been through a couple of these. And looking at the special dividend for PGR it is payable on Jan 8. I believe (and not positive of this, but just from my memory of past special dividends) the adjustment will occur on January 8.
Damn the number of options sold on PGR. Theta gonna eat all next year
People sleep on insurance cuz it's boring, meanwhile successful insurers are some of the greatest business models out there. It's like cybersecurity and defense without ever being overvalued or having capex. Huge moats because of economies of scale and regulations. The big players stay big. Structural success because everyone is forced to buy insurance as cost of living or doing business. Some of the safest and most stable companies with getter earnings growth than most tech stocks. ACGL, AJG, KNSL, RLI, BRO, WRB, AON, MMC, PGR, CB, and daddy Berkshire Hathaway.
ADBE. customer lock-in is real. their AI pricing is geared to profit rather than subsidize to grow. they have plenty of levers to pull to switch to growth if wanted. multiple expansion once they show stable and slight growth in customer base. current low expectations will reset creating multiple expansion. AMZN, thesis listed elsewhere in this thread. PGR: low expectations, business is ideal for efficiency gains enabling cost differentiation and growth. and management consistently delivers.
Ones on my watch list that I haven’t taken the plunge on: MLI (mueller industrials- makes copper plumbing materials among other things ) V (visa) ONDS (onidas- a drone manufacturer) ERIE (Erie insurances company) Djco (daily journal- Charlie mungers holding company) PGR (progressive insurance) WM (waste management ) Ones I own I’d consider more of: AEM (agnico eagle mines- Canadian gold miner) RNMBY (rheinmetall- European defense manufacturing) CVX- (chevron oil)
PGR. It has been a monster since. Shows that a better platform (technology and pricing algorithms) can take huge share in insurance. KNSL is in that position now. A must own imo.
Why would you buy PGR if JPM is selling off?
A “Black Friday sale” only matters if the business is healthy, not just the stock price. TOST = razor thin margins, still proving the model. UBER = finally profitable but priced like growth + regulation risk. UNH = temporarily beaten down, but the underlying business is a monster. PGR = one of the best-run insurers in the country. ACN/ADBE = slowing enterprise spend + multiple compression, not broken companies. A drop from ATH isn’t a thesis. But a good business temporarily hated by the market is a sale. Out of this list, UNH and ADBE look the closest to “actual discount” vs “just falling.”
TGT - he doesn't buy trash with weak economics. MET - he buys property casualty AIG - too unwieldy and complex to analyze, not a clear competitive advantage. He's much more likely to buy something like PGR or a smaller insurance company. PYPL - unclear sustainability of moat SPL - he doesn't buy pharma trash
It seems like there's a lot of flow from tech to more stable sectors. See: * $COKE - Coco cola consolidated * $MNST - Monster Beverage * $AZO - Auto Zone * $PGR - Progressive * etc
Your son will retire with ROOT for the next 1000x. ROOT is building networks with the largest players in auto including Hyundai & Toyota with potential collective runway of over 20b+ annually eclipsing PGR. Despite that, ROOT trades at less than 1/100X the size of PGR today at a measle 1.3B marketcap.
Straight up just ROOT for the next 1000x. ROOT is building networks with the largest players in auto including Hyundai & Toyota with potential collective runway of over 20b+ annually eclipsing PGR. Despite that, ROOT trades at less than 1/100X the size of PGR today at a measle 1.3B marketcap.
At least RDW and PGR are up. I've been bag holding those for a while
currently? PGR. and even with the recent run-up, GOOG
The other side of this would be you’d loose 50 percent maybe in a different circumstance. In fact today I closed PGR 225 strike puts and lost money on it but then I sold amd calls, ma calls, CRM calls and bunch of other puts and ultimately made more. What I’m getting at is like instead of over analyzing that one trade that went awry, maybe do many other and smaller trades and distribute the risk. It may also work against you but you have to find a way to make the money. I’m just not one stock and one time frame all in type of person. I’m letting market do market things and try to profit on both way up and down. https://preview.redd.it/rgm6rrcmkrvf1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=abfba296b0b69cf8f5690244bf8542c290c6a2d9 And here is example of what I mean. I sold 5 contracts and kept 5, I think today’s price was $11 per contract. I didn’t over analyze it and moved on. I don’t regret not selling it all. I’m not gonna sell until it reaches my desired price in a timely manner and I didn’t even think about it before your question now. Best of luck to you, keep on going
MC looks at the last 12 qtrs. (shows 13 as PGR just reported). https://preview.redd.it/tkfl8n14favf1.png?width=1621&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b72f398a9848e6466b17d4413dd558c7349492c
Once PGR lost Flo it was all downhill from there.
Took 2 years to settle my claim. Calls on PGR.
look into $ROOT the next 1000x+. ROOT is building networks with the largest players in the auto industry including Hyundai and Toyota. it is beating legacy insurers in key metrics all around. despite this, it is still trading at less than 1/100x PGR.
its going to take probably a decade to see real revenue from quantum. its just a massive short squeeze party over there right now. for long term, real growth & real earnings, look into ROOT with 1000x+ potential. ROOT is building a network with the largest players in auto including Toyota & Hyundai, & many others to come. It is also beating legacy on key metrics all around. despite this, it is trading at 1/100X the size of $PGR
PGR seems undervalued. No good reason for it to be red on the year, given the strong growth.
JPM and PGR (JP Morgan and Progressive insurance).
agreed, overlooked by the market. could be the larger than PGR one day and it still trades at 1/100 of the market cap
Long time KNSL owner.... we're entering a soft market for insurance and I expect a few years of mediocre to poor performance out of KNSL. Management has commented that they are seeing a lot of price competition (probably due to poor risk management by competitors). We're probably a big risk event away from good performance out of P&C names. We need to knock a few names out of the game. On top of that, lower rates actually hurt insurance as they earn less money on their float. That said, I haven't sold anything. I think the company is stellar and will be a long term winner. I'm just not eager to add to it for awhile. There are a few small names that are becoming extremely cheap though. ACIC is a name out of Florida that is really highly regarded among insurance people. KINS is one out of NYC that has almost no following due to its size. I like KINS more because NYC has been exited by a number of large players and KINS is sucking up market share in the resulting vacuum. Meanwhile the stock has been sold off with the broad sector as the company puts up 20%+ earnings growth. In lieu of PGR I've actually been buying ROOT. Much longer runway and some short term earnings occurrences have masked great growth by the company. The stock is starting to find some traction too. I bought a ton near $90.
CAVA, CMG, PGR, KNSL, UNP and LULU are some stocks that havent joined the 52 week high party. Wonder which will be the next UNH. I bought CAVA and KNSL off list to see what happens.
CAVA, CMG, PGR, KNSL, UNP and LULU are some stocks that havent joined the party. Must be others and some of those names may be the next UNH type of turnaround. Just dont know which.
ROOT is going to be better than ORCL. It is the most derisked 100X+ here's why: ROOT is significantly undervalued with a forward PE in the 4’s & a forward PEG less than .1. If ROOT 10X today, it would still be trading cheaper than its peers who trade at 1-3+ PEG ROOT is projected to do a billion+ in NI by 2029 end. at 6B rev & 1.5billion NI at a 40X multiple, that would put ROOT at a 60B mcap or $4000 PPS(45x). discount that to today’s value and that puts the current value at $2034+ here's a quick elevator pitch: \-all 50 states by 2026 end. currently in 35 now \-Onboarding of embedded partners that has yet to be implemented technologically with over 20 major partners in the early stages including CVNA, Toyota, GSHD, Experian, Hyundai, First connect, etc. Should see growth from these partners later in the year going into 2026 \- New major partners that have yet to be announced that are larger than CVNA \- Agressive onboarding of subagencies since public launch in Q4 with now over 7k+ subagency partners and soon half of the agency market in a few yrs. Growth will be exponential on this part of the equation as the qts go along, with expectations of it adding billions in rev growth annually over the long run \- economy of scale kicking in as time goes on with a 75% CR long term due to ROOT's ai tech stack efficiency making them 2X more profit efficient than their legacy counterparts \-New products that would double rev growth due to cross-sell, increasing stickiness by 27% & customer pool by 33% due to bundling Buying ROOT is like buying PGR at 5 cents, a 5000X+ return except ROOT will grow exponentially faster due to AI, automation & the internet. ROOT to 2034+
Alright fellas, how are we playing $BECKY’s pivot away from public transportation? CVNA and UBER calls, maybe PGR puts?
As far as a good company Costco but it's currently (and usually) already highly valued. I have JPM and PGR as my non-tech stocks.
root for me: ROOT is the most derisked 100X+ here's why: ROOT is significantly undervalued with a forward PE in the 4’s & a forward PEG less than .1. If ROOT 10X today, it would still be trading cheaper than its peers who trade at 1-3+ PEG ROOT is projected to do a billion+ in NI by 2029 end. at 6B rev & 1.5billion NI at a 40X multiple, that would put ROOT at a 60B mcap or $4000 PPS(45x). discount that to today’s value and that puts the current value at $2034+ here's a quick elevator pitch: \-all 50 states by 2026 end. currently in 35 now \-Onboarding of embedded partners that has yet to be implemented technologically with over 20 major partners in the early stages including CVNA, Toyota, GSHD, Experian, Hyundai, First connect, etc. Should see growth from these partners later in the year going into 2026 \- New major partners that have yet to be announced that are larger than CVNA \- Agressive onboarding of subagencies since public launch in Q4 with now over 7k+ subagency partners and soon half of the agency market in a few yrs. Growth will be exponential on this part of the equation as the qts go along, with expectations of it adding billions in rev growth annually over the long run \- economy of scale kicking in as time goes on with a 75% CR long term due to ROOT's ai tech stack efficiency making them 2X more profit efficient than their legacy counterparts \-New products that would double rev growth due to cross-sell, increasing stickiness by 27% & customer pool by 33% due to bundling Buying ROOT is like buying PGR at 5 cents, a 5000X+ return except ROOT will grow exponentially faster due to AI, automation & the internet. ROOT to 2034+
ROOT is the most derisked 100X+ here's why: ROOT is significantly undervalued with a forward PE in the 4’s & a forward PEG less than .1. If ROOT 10X today, it would still be trading cheaper than its peers who trade at 1-3+ PEG ROOT is projected to do a billion+ in NI by 2029 end. at 6B rev & 1.5billion NI at a 40X multiple, that would put ROOT at a 60B mcap or $4000 PPS(45x). discount that to today’s value and that puts the current value at $2034+ here's a quick elevator pitch: \-all 50 states by 2026 end. currently in 35 now \-Onboarding of embedded partners that has yet to be implemented technologically with over 20 major partners in the early stages including CVNA, Toyota, GSHD, Experian, Hyundai, First connect, etc. Should see growth from these partners later in the year going into 2026 \- New major partners that have yet to be announced that are larger than CVNA \- Agressive onboarding of subagencies since public launch in Q4 with now over 7k+ subagency partners and soon half of the agency market in a few yrs. Growth will be exponential on this part of the equation as the qts go along, with expectations of it adding billions in rev growth annually over the long run \- economy of scale kicking in as time goes on with a 75% CR long term due to ROOT's ai tech stack efficiency making them 2X more profit efficient than their legacy counterparts \-New products that would double rev growth due to cross-sell, increasing stickiness by 27% & customer pool by 33% due to bundling Buying ROOT is like buying PGR at 5 cents, a 5000X+ return except ROOT will grow exponentially faster due to AI, automation & the internet. ROOT to 2034+
I would look into stocks. A couple tickers I like: COST PGR MA
prefer ROOT since its in P&C and not in health insurance with regulatory caps.ROOT is the most derisked 100X+ here's why: ROOT is significantly undervalued with a forward PE in the 4’s & a forward PEG less than .1. If ROOT 10X today, it would still be trading cheaper than its peers who trade at 1-3+ PEG ROOT is projected to do a billion+ in NI by 2029 end. at 6B rev & 1.5billion NI at a 40X multiple, that would put ROOT at a 60B mcap or $4000 PPS(45x). discount that to today’s value and that puts the current value at $2034+ here's a quick elevator pitch: \-all 50 states by 2026 end. currently in 35 now \-Onboarding of embedded partners that has yet to be implemented technologically with over 20 major partners in the early stages including CVNA, Toyota, GSHD, Experian, Hyundai, First connect, etc. Should see growth from these partners later in the year going into 2026 \- New major partners that have yet to be announced that are larger than CVNA \- Agressive onboarding of subagencies since public launch in Q4 with now over 7k+ subagency partners and soon half of the agency market in a few yrs. Growth will be exponential on this part of the equation as the qts go along, with expectations of it adding billions in rev growth annually over the long run \- economy of scale kicking in as time goes on with a 75% CR long term due to ROOT's ai tech stack efficiency making them 2X more profit efficient than their legacy counterparts \-New products that would double rev growth due to cross-sell, increasing stickiness by 27% & customer pool by 33% due to bundling Buying ROOT is like buying PGR at 5 cents, a 5000X+ return except ROOT will grow exponentially faster due to AI, automation & the internet. ROOT to 2034+
Honestly that's my reason. Thinking of doing the same for PGR and TMUS.
It's a tough business, but private auto repriced after 2022. The business line average 95% combined ratio last year, and ROOT reported a 95% combined ratio in 2Q, it's fourth sequential profitable quarter, continuing an improving trend since 2021. I actually think that PGR is a better bet, and a perpetually underestimated company, but ROOT has a legit business and management team.
I’m in ROOT as well. And my plan is long term hold. But in regards to your conviction of larger than PGR one day, what makes you believe in this? I see the advantage ROOT has with auto insurance. But with other types of insurance, what can ROOT do better than the big guys? Would ROOT come up with better ways to underwrite policies for other types of insurance?
you're going to do well. this is a sit and forget stock where it will be larger than PGR one day. riding to 2074+
How did you determine they are 3x more expensive? PGR has a PE ratio of 13.81 and ROOT has a PE ratio of 17.26. That indicates ROOT is 25% more expensive.
no point in explaining. he thinks a small cap means the company is trash but in reality ROOT has better pricing, loss ratios and better tech than PGR, ALL, Geico, etc.
i hear you! there are so many things in the works right now, and anyone long just needs to be patient for when the PR's hit, and people will realize why ROOT will be larger than PGR one day
To add about insurance, but not disagree with valuation arguments, root is making its money in selling shit policies and being too small for newsworthy blowback, not having stronger underwriting. They don’t even include bodily injury coverage on their “Great (full coverage)” policies unless required to by law. That is sketchy AF. You want bodily injury coverage, trust me. When you or someone in your car fucks up, and attorneys send their demand it usually says something along the lines of “Based on these 200 pages, this person’s sore back is worth $1.6m but we will settle for the policy limits of $25k” To answer that, you say “fine insurance company, do your thing” and it goes away for much less. If you don’t have BI coverage, it’s not the insurance company’s problem. You’ll have to spend weeks/months/years showing that you don’t have $1.6m or go off grid, or pay a real attorney out of pocket (probably more than 20 years of bodily injury premiums) just to owe another $10k. When you compare premiums with PGR/Geico head to head, Root is not much different and both “legacy” companies are already implementing AI and laying off process people (Geico more than PGR).
every person is being underwritten differently. i've heard about situations where customers at ROOT are a fraction of PGR, Geico, and vice versa. thats why shopping is crucial.
ahhh gotcha. Turo has ate some of that business for sure, but i don't see the rental market going away. theres certainly a market for it especially when someone needs a vehicle during travels or a temporary replacement, etc. but interesting point of view either way PGR customer complaints are very high as well. its very similar industry wide. PGR is utilizing their snapshot program to also monitor drivers as well
ahh thats a very strong opinion. used cars make up 70% of auto transactions. theres a significant market out there. just look at the margins that Carvana is bringing in. I would take a second look at ROOT if i were you. Many consumers make their decision on price, and ROOT offers that. Also, many consumers also make their decision based on whats offered to them based on PoS, where ROOT is a leader in embedded insurance. ROOT has one of the best loss ratios and pricing in the industry beating out players like PGR.
The SP is so concentrated that the top 10 are \~40% of the index. About 25% of the index is pure garbage with stagnant to no growth, about 10% is in a dying/shrinking industry. About 1/3 of the businesses in the SP outperformed the index individually in the past 30 months. This might seem high to the inexperienced but this is actually the lowest since 1990. In 2000 the top 10 of the SP comprised only \~25% of the total. Only 1 business of that top 10 remains in the top 10 today: Microsoft. 2 out of 10 of that top 10 is no longer in business today, and 3 out of that top 10 has posted negative returns for the past 24 years! If you really took the time to understand investing in businesses for the long term it would only take half a brain to outperform the S&P500. I personally outperformed the SP by almost 20x in the past 12-13 years by holding only 7 stocks (excluding a few delistings I held like Providence & Worcester railroad and Hunter Douglas. And timing a few dips and adding to those positions). The businesses I hold were simple to find by basic value investing metrics at the points of entry: **ASML + BESI + 6146 (Disco Corp.)** \[Semiconductor: future growth and moated businesses with unique capabilities\], BESI entry was an absolute steal, anyone could grab that one at 9x earnings with a >90% payout ratio offering \~10% dividend at the time while most thought it was a cyclical business... ASML and Disco are modern day monopolies and the where on major sale several times (compared to industry peers) in the past 10 years. **HIG + PGR + KNSL** \[Insurance: All bought because of leadership. KNSL founder is one of the brightest in the industry simple IPO purchase. PGR I bought when Tricia Griffith took over from Glenn Renwick which was only the 3rd leadership change in 51 years and the first real major female insurance CEO, she published the 'Three Horizons' strategy in 2017 and I doubled my position. HIG is a big heritage insurance brand with a diversified portfolio, in 2020 it dipped with the market, yet while the market recovered HIG remained at a 7-8x earnings valuation with no real burden on the business, snapped it up and doubled my investment when Chubb offered 65-70, today around 120-130. **UAN** little unknown fertilizer business out in Kansas. The only plant utilizing an old Texaco patent from '98 that uses pet coke as its base input. Carl Icahn is a major holder, they took huge debt to acquire Rentech for \~$500m and when fertilizer prices crashed the total business was trading for just $100m. By 2024 I made back my investment by 5.5x in pure cash dividend because of its MLP structure, at current price it is still 9x on value. I think that buying ETFs is one of the biggest thefts of your own future personal wealth one can submit to. Just use half of your brain and learn to analyse and seize opportunities once they come. And remember: "Opportunities multiply once they are seized" Sun Tzu ;D
i would advise to do a little more research before you throw out claims like this. ROOT is growing incredibly fast for a reason, and its not just because of pure coincidence. >This is true and not true. There doesn't exist a modern large insurer that can't return you a quote in minutes like Root can. This has been true for most of them since before Root existed. to be clear. its issuing the policy, not just giving a quote. completely different. legacy still can take hours to days to ISSUE a policy. where ROOT does it in minutes.. >Legacy insurers will kick you over to underwriting for non-standard policies, which can prolong the quote for hours or days like you mentioned, but that is not necessarily a bad thing because the alternative is just being denied by Root, but quickly, I guess? oh man. you have no clue about ROOT do you? ROOT literally does non-standard better than anyone else out there. your legacy insurers has to go through the backend to figure things out, but ROOT's closed loop underwriting system already has that all figured out. IA's are not waiting around for legacy's back end to figure out what to quote a policy, meanwhile ROOT already has it figured it out in minutes. ROOT doesn't go off of credit scores to valuate a driver's risk. they go off of telematics & other factors and so that is why they are able to evaluate non-standard policies much quicker than any other insurer. >These exist? Legacy insurers have existed for those needed years... and have built portals, and tooling, etc the key difference is, legacy offers THIER OWN portal. ROOT embeds to their PARTNER's portal, making it much more efficient to quote to issue.. In order for legacy to do this, they have to figure out how to integrate to their existing COBOL systems, where they are trying to untangle which is mostly an impossible task. >Agents would not even be able to tell you what COBOL is. They care about the last commission check they got, the size of their book of business, how much of a pain in the ass you were to resolve their last claim with you, and what resort you sent them to last spring as a part of their "sales conference" It matters due to efficiency in building platforms, and updating code. legacy would take months to years to update code. ROOT does it in days. >Again this true but it's kind of a half truth. Geico, state farm, etc. didn't grow 1:1 as explosively as Root did over 10 years because it was literally impossible for them to do so. exactly, Geico, PGR does not have access to the internet, automation and the AI tech stack that ROOT offers, and that is one of the reasons why ROOT will grow exponentially faster than their legacy counterparts. theres a reason why ROOT has over 20+ major partners swarming to work with ROOT which includes Carvana, Hyundai, Toyota, Experian, Credit Karma, First Connect, Goosehead, and many more. there's also a reason why IA's that have exposure to ROOT, have a double digit percentage of ROOT in their portfolio. ROOT is simply better in pricing, loss ratios, speed, efficiency, tech stack, partner relations and more. otherwise why would over 7000 agents & 1500 agencies swarm to sign up with ROOT in a short 2.5 quarters? The facts are in the numbers, and you can continue to deny their success, because they "seem small".
ROOT easily hands down. here's why: ROOT is significantly undervalued with a TTM PE in the 15’s & a forward PE in the 4’s and a forward PEG less than .1. If ROOT 10X today, it would still be trading cheaper than its peers who trade at 1-2+ PEG valuations. ROOT is projected to do billions in NI by 2029 end. at 6B rev & 1.5billion NI at a 40X multiple, that would valuate ROOT at a 60B market cap or $4000 PPS(45x), which could be attained sooner than anyone could expect. here's a quick elevator pitch: \-all 50 states by 2026 end. currently in 35 now \-Onboarding of embedded partners that has yet to be implemented technologically with over 20 major partners in the early stages including CVNA, GSHD, Experian, Hyundai, Toyota, First connect, etc. Should see growth from these partners later in the year going into 2026 \- New major partners that have yet to be announced that are larger than CVNA \- Agressive onboarding of subagencies since public launch in Q4 with now over 7000 subagency partners and soon half of the agency market in a few years. Growth will be exponential on this part of the equation as the quarters go along, with expectations of it adding billions in rev growth annually over the long run \- economy of scale kicking in as time goes on with a 75% CR long term due to ROOT's ai tech stack efficiency making them 2X more profit efficient than their legacy counterparts \- New algorithm changes for H2 increasing LTV by 20%+ \-New products that would double rev growth due to cross-sell, increasing stickiness by 27% & customer pool by 33% due to bundling Buying ROOT is like buying PGR at 5 cents, a 5000X+ return except ROOT will grow exponentially faster due to AI, automation and the internet. ROOT to 2074+ long term.
im glad you mentioned it actually. >You're not wrong about agents advice for people picking insurance but you haven't told me anything that is actually going to convince agents to sell this thing. Agents sells policies on a lot more than price -- their past experiences, how their book looks, what their commissions look like, etc. \-ROOT quotes to issue in minutes. legacy? they can take days, especially if the policy is non-standard. \- ROOT offers tailored systems for their partners. Legacy would take years to build one out. \- Legacy operating on COBOL code takes months to years to change code on tailored systems. ROOT? days. \- Policy management, claim management is all digital and can be accessed quickly via an online portal, simplifying the process for agents. Legacy offers a name, but ROOT offers the pricing, speed and efficiency. theres a reason why independent agents are swarming to work with ROOT and the reason why many of them have ROOT as a double digit percentage of their portfolio. ROOT is the holy grail for independent agent partnerships. Efficiency makes agents more money. you heard it here first and everyone in ROOT is early. >Root having a lower policy by a few bucks a month does not equate to taking over the agency market by default. I've worked with several insurers who have all tried to crack this nut of taking over the agency market -- it's never as easy as anyone thinks it is its not a "few bucks", its hundreds and according to autoinsurance its north of 800 comparing to progressive. [https://www.autoinsurance.com/best/cheap/](https://www.autoinsurance.com/best/cheap/) >This statement is lost on me? The only thing I can find about Root being "#1" is it being the "ranked $1 auto insurtech by premium" ROOT insurance was ranked #1 a combined rank based on NAIC insurance rankings. not by premiums in force but a combined rank based on leading loss ratios, and leading growth rates. > Don't really understand this statement either... Legacy Insurers aren't going to experience explosive growth now because they have captivated the market but of course they would have experienced this explosive growth as they took over the market... You yourself remarked on the growth of Geico after Buffet took over Geico, PGR, State farm has been around since the 1900's. none of them in their first 10 years of inception grew at the rate that ROOT has. at the pace that ROOT is growing at, they'll outgrow legacy. Legacy is flatlined on growth, and non-innovative. the trend is there. its just very early.
the same goes with ROOT, though ROOT is hyper focused on auto which is the largest part of the pie. pet/renters has a 10B TAM, meanwhile auto has a 400b+ tam. just look at PGR with 80%+ of books in auto. its like TTD VS APP all over again, where APP stay focused, and TTD tried to do everything all at once. Now APP trades at 6X TTD
pet/renters is like picking up pennies in a much smaller TAM market of 10B. Auto is where it is at. just look at PGR where 80%+ of their books is auto. Auto is all you need.