SA

Kerhole

Tolls only work if you can enforce a consequence for not paying, so unless SA wants to find a navy to patrol the entire southern ocean, I doubt that's a risk. The South China Sea, however...

MrBubbles226

I agree that it will destroy him politically and oil prices will increase. If we look at top 10 oil producers in the world for 2025 we see something troubling though https://tradeint.com/insights/top-10-crude-oil-exporting-countries/. United States | 13.58 mb/d | 16.08% Russia | 9.87 mb/d | 11.69% Saudi Arabia | 9.51 mb/d | 11.26% Canada | 4.94 mb/d | 5.85% Iraq | 4.39 mb/d | 5.20% China | 4.34 mb/d | 5.14% Iran | 4.19 mb/d | 4.96% UAE | 3.82 mb/d | 4.52% Brazil | 3.75 mb/d | 4.43% Kuwait | 2.58 mb/d | 3.05% Russian oil output is down massively currently due to multi day drone strikes on Ust Luga and their other warm water port refinerys, so their output is greatly diminished (some estimates indicate 60-65% diminished). SA, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Kuwait all are impacted by the strait closure. This leaves US, Canada, China, Brazil, for a combined total of ~37% of 2025 levels. And given that production is usually pretty hard to increase, I doubt that these 4 nations can increase production by ~200%, let alone route all of it. So the math is really pointing to shits fucked yo, and to unfuck it you either need an incredibly theocratic regime to cede it's only bargaining chip, or you need the most immature world leader in modern, and dare I say all human history, to act like a rational adult for once in his life. Not sure which odds are better tbh, but I know that odds are good that Monday is brutally red for markets.

Cybermeld

Iran also kind of hobbled SA's oil pipelines between then and now.  Oil falling below 100 seems over sold. 

Rude_Assistance_4386

SA said they had 2 fields shut down due to strikes (~600,000 BPD) and one pipeline shut down (~700,000 BPD) Idk what percentage of their usual volume that is but, losing 1.3 million barrels per day sounds like a lot

Complex-Algae-4214

Kuwait National Guard Says Attack Resulted in Severe Damage -Bloomberg Possibly SA fending off rockets too

ShitStainStoop

Threatening to SA someone. Very cool

Epochium

It was hard to know what sectors would do well 12 months ago, but it's obvious we're in a bull market due to AI Tech has run a lot already, so I want exposure to the best biotech out there: Switzerland's ACIU could become the next huge biotech/pharmaceutical company... The recent pause of enrollment for Janssen's/ACIU's ACI-24 mild cognitive impairment (patient stage) phase 2b AD is irrelevant (although tau has not been solved universally) - it hit the immunogenicity threshold - it verifies the supra antigen platform. The main trial results are coming this summer for ACIU's 7104 (wholly owned) early stage Parkinson's. With prior incredible results from phase 2 part 1 (Dec 11, 2025) - to have 500x higher levels in the CSF compared to placebo is effectively unheard of in this field. It suggests they have solved the "delivery problem" that plagues passive antibodies. If the drug fails now, it will not be because it did not get to the crime scene - it will be because the mechanism itself is flawed (which the NfL data suggests is unlikely). In addition, the clinical and scientific board they have assembled essentially wrote the clinical trials playbook, which should help ensure they do not make the same mistakes that others (like Roche) have made. Great buying opportunity. If results continue to be great, ACIU will do around $6 billion in sales times a 10 P/S = $60 billion market cap (not including AD portfolio) - compared to ~$280 million market cap ($91 million cash). The market is really not valuing ACIU right. They also have a no noticeable symptoms (patient stage) AD phase (amyloid) 1b/2 trial with Janssen (ACI-24), with results in the first half of this year, with potential milestones up to $2.1 billion and tiered double digit royalties. They also just had news about a partnership with Eli Lilly (a $1 trillion company) - up to $1.7 billion in milestones and tiered double digit royalties. Analyst average price target is $9. They also have a partnership with Takeda. A Potentially Different Regulatory Path One underappreciated aspect of ACI-7104 is its adaptive clinical design. The ongoing study is structured to: - Expand cohorts - Add additional patients - Refine dosing and signals in real time This matters because regulators increasingly allow: - Seamless Phase 2 to Phase 3 transitions - Or even registration-enabling studies if the data is strong enough Given: - Biomarker stabilization - Clinical signal - Strong safety It raises a reasonable question: Could this program advance without a traditional, long, standalone Phase 3? That will ultimately be determined in discussions with regulators, but the design and early data leave that door open. Dr. Andrea Pfeifer, CEO of AC Immune SA, commented: “The interim Phase 2 data shows the potential of our ACI-7104.056 active immunotherapy to slow the progression of Parkinson’s disease and hold the promise of a tremendous step forward for millions of patients. The consistent signs of efficacy, combined with the continuing strong safety record, underline ACI-7104.056’s potential to transform PD treatment and are a strong basis for accelerating development. We will discuss ACI-7104.056 with the regulators to establish a clinical development plan towards registration.”

Automatic-Article747

so Trump will just stay quiet while they bomb SA because "THE MARKET"?!

Willem_van_Oranje

Well, that already happened, before the Kashoggi murder. Western nations were talking to SA about exactly that, which caused some diplomatic tension, but they did significantly improve the position of women in SA after that. It's still bad imo, but unlike in Iran, there has actually been much improvement over the last years.

SuspiciousStable9649

I lost $150k on a battery stock. Never again. FREYR Battery SA engages in the development of clean, next-generation battery cell production capacity. It focuses on production of environmentally friendly battery cells through a business model intended to maximize long-term value creation and unlock sustainable, superior returns to stakeholders. The company was founded by Peter Matrai, Torstein Dale Sjøtveit, and Tom Einar Jensen on January 20, 2021 and is headquartered Luxembourg.

x7_omega

I have been watching this map since "ceasefire" - no tankers took that seriously enough to make transit, yet. A couple bulk carriers could have moved through Iranian toll gate. There is one loaded tanker (from SA) parked on approach to the toll gate, and one from Iraq (no restrictions) is moving into strait. Overall, no apparent change from the prior days. https://preview.redd.it/y3ufuvdjn0ug1.png?width=2677&format=png&auto=webp&s=acb9b10185658f511d9a8e68c7d1893375948a31

absolutxtr

what we pumping on now? cuz Iran and SA had a phone call? How is that bullish?

ResortMain780

Troops are largely evacuated already. Entirely from iraq, many other bases are ghost towns, with troop holed up in hotels and defences seriously damaged, to the tune of billions of dollars. Besides, I fail to see why GCC monarchies will still want those bases; their population HATES them. They have proven to be missile magnets rather than deterrence against Iran, and proved utterly pointless and unable in defending the GCC states or keeping the straight open. All they did was track missiles for Israel. If I was qatar or SA or Kuwait.. I would kick out the US and invite the chinese to take over those bases to help keep stability in the region.

joshTheGoods

Not the toll alone... it'd add roughly $1 to the cost per barrel of crude. It raises the floor a bit, and it messes with a bunch of shipping business, but overall it's a small number when a ship carries 2M barrels of oil (worth $150M @ 75/barrel) and charges ~$1.5M (in good times) for the trip. The important point here, for the Iranians, isn't the dollar amount. That's nominal, and they want it to be easy to accept. The important point is that they have their control over the straight codified by this deal so that they can use it as a basis for re-entering the global markets. They get to negotiate with every state their own deal for crossing the strait. They get to hike the prices when someone does something they don't like, and it's not an act of war anymore. They get to own the strait, basically, by agreement of US, Israel, and the rest of the gulf states under SA's thumb. My money's on this deal falling apart. I don't see how Israel could accept it. Best case they'll see is essentially going back to something like the old Iran Deal, and that seems like a no-go with the current Israeli admin. Trump believes Israel will do what he says, and that's about to get tested. Best realistic case imo is Israel complies initially, but that's just to setup their next backstab.

Impossible_Base_3088

I understand completely. The fact Kushner negotiated peace in the Middle East, took billions to SA and was back in Iran last month is crazy. I have been screaming it for years: you are right, they are taking everything they can get.

goodknightffs

Well apparently Iran didn't get the memo lol they are still attacking Israel uae and SA 😂

BHOmber

And some of these idiots are saying shit like, "We have Venezuela now! Why do we need to worry?!". You dumbass bitches.... We do not have capacity to refine heavy anytime soon. Those products will leave SA and a special someone pockets the proceeds in a Qatari acct. This is all so fucked lmao

VellyJanta

They don’t get called into a war due to their alliance with SA. Pakistan has internal separatist groups on the east bordering Iran, Taliban war on the north and India to its south.

VellyJanta

Flights going dark on flight radar around north SA

VellyJanta

Wild how Pakistan just wants to avoid SA calling them into war due to their alliance and their word is actually swaying the market

HolyBubbiDiver

Iran warning citizens of SA, UAE and Bahrain: Several roads and bridges in your countries are deemed closed military zones. Iran government ready for all scenarios. Calls before closing?

fakenews_thankme

It's because they have a signed a contract with them. Saudi Arabia (SA) bought them for $6B in return of a guarantee that if there was ever an attack on SA, Pakistan will provide full military support. So they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

absolutxtr

Iran bombing SA's largest oil facilities. And Israel Iran's largest. It's past taco.

Temporary-Alarm-744

Didn’t some male nurse get executed for trying to save a woman from getting SA d by the 🥭 zealot corps ? 

absolutxtr

Iran just now: mangoman “has about 20 hours” left to either surrender to Iran “or his allies will return to the Stone Age” And also Iran bombing large petro plant in SA apparently. And Iran bombing everyone (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait). And also USA and Israel bombing Iran. To summarize: WAR

HK-53

might have something to do with: Iran just struck SA's largest (or one of) refineries and set a huge ass fire Trump said that the deadline is final (for realsies)

LightOverWater

SA/UAE pipelines, particularly the east-west pipeline now flowing at 7mbpd. IEA says an additional combined 5.5 mbpd post closure. I don't think you read or know anything about what's going on. This is common knowledge.

zonk84

A bit skittish on DMs -- and I'm an SA, not an engineer... though, an SA now 25 years in with a tax and compliance software provider (and like everyone, we're knee-deep in AI builds). However, FWIW? \- A *successful* agent (or more likely, an orchestration of agents) does need a foundation in trading rules, especially on the tax side. Wash rules, short vs longterm cap gains - which has other variables, etc. My own little tinkering has found this is particularly hard - I guess it's why my company exists and why I have a job - I'm not claiming lots of things change on a dime, but RAG vs closed loop? An accurate, curated set of "official/primary source" input really needs to be foundational.... tax drags, optimization, etc are a bit different than a "pure" equity picker. \- As much as the general rule of equity pricing is simple "It's worth what someone will pay for it at any given moment" -- beyond fractional automated trading? I'd look at EDGAR plug-ins -- how much/to what extent it should factor? Answer that and.... but I'd want parsing of 10-Q/10-K/etc filings to be a weighted factor. At least, as an investor? I'm a long-term, buy-and-hold guy that believes in longer term time horizons. Risk calibration predates AI models -- you can bake it into simple algorithmic trading. But ironically? I think it gets *harder* with AI than mechanical algy settings (i.e., robo-ETF fintechs have been around for a while). \- Back to RAG.... and this where I'd get skittish. Lots of slop. And what do you lean on? Charts guy? Sector chasing? Long term buy and hold? Quants? What do you use for sources? Weighting on sources?

tachyonvelocity

I guess some people are still stuck in the 1970s, where oil shocks did have an effect on oil consuming US where there was no shale or SPR or any car efficiency regulation, where oil made up 17% of US energy generation. Today? US global exporter, oil intensity of US GDP is 60-70% lower, meaning the same oil shock is now 70% less relevant even IF the US wasn't an exporter. Oil percentage of energy generation IS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT. US energy generation through NG is literally close to FREE, and you're bearish tech? LMAO Do you know how Saudi stocks are doing? Pretty well even when it's exporting 50% less oil, because SA is making MORE money now than before the war. You think US money is flowing out? LOL, US shale is literally drowning in money, that flows through to all the bank loans.

Key-Beginning-2201

Everything is a security guarantee. SA expects USA to continue and escalate the war.

gamer900093

IEA March 26 report "Together the two countries have up to 5.5 mb/d of combined additional pipeline egress that can partially offset reduced flows from the Strait." 1 mbd spare capacity through Fujairah, 7 mbd East-West total capacity, with 5 mbd exportable though Yanbu, compared to 0.5 pre-war, 5.5 spare bypass. FED study on PED of crude oil "Using our identification scheme, the short-run oil supply elasticity is about 0.1 and the oil demand elasticity is about −0.1." Note that compared to history the US PED for crude is going to be less inelastic because the oil intensity of GDP is lower, the US uses lower amounts of oil per economic activity. Also IEA: Kazakhstan can bring 0.4 mbd online in March, add every country and you get 1 mb/d Also IEA: pre-war global oil supply was in a glut, ~ 2mb/d oversupply, which is why pre-war oil inventories were at the highest since Covid, source Goldman Sachs. From IEA, global crude supply in Feb was 107.5 mb/d. Demand was 105 mb/d. PED formula, infer % change in price to historical PED. % change in price = % change in supply / PED Taking all these basics, what we get is this: 5.5 mb/d bypass SA + UAE 2.5 mb/d Iran + allowed tankers 0.5-1 mb/d Iraq BEFORE this "exemption" which can increase to 1.5-2 or more. Iraq can currently export oil minimally using tanker trucks and very low Turkey pipe bypass volumes. 1 mb/d unsanctioned Russian floating storage + all other countries, Kazakhstan and some Venezuela. 2-2.5 mb/d SPR. Note that China has yet to tap into SPR which is very high. That gives oil supply flows of 12 mb/d pre-Iraq exemption, or 13.5 mb/d potentially after exemption or if Iran allows more tankers through. Compare that with pre-war of 20 mb/d, we get currently -8 mb/d short or -6.5 mb/d after Iraq exemption. % change in supply of 8 mb/d short is 8/107.5 of total supply or 7.5%, 6.5 mb/d is 6% Considering PED of -0.1 according to Federal Reserve, we get: Change in price = -0.075/-0.1 = +75% before Iraq exemption Change in price = -0.06/-0.1 = +60% after Iraq exemption. The reason why I use WTI $55 pre-war is because 2 months pre-war, markets were already starting to price in the potential for war in Iran, so there was a geopolitical premium not reflected by actual supply flows. It was clear by Feb that the US was moving a lot of military assets. $96 fair value now, $88 if Iraq can export 1-2 additional mb/d.

LightOverWater

Downed refineries are much less of a problem than the flow of oil. It would not cause a crisis like we have now. The damage that has occured is minimal. About 0.8m-1.8m bpd in production capacity primarily in SA. Extent of damage matters. Most of the time it's months.

tachyonvelocity

It’s possible because your assumptions are literally wrong. People don’t think the stock market won’t take a hit from 20% restriction because there isn’t a 20% restriction. Currently the supply shortage is about 8% if you actually did the math and knew anything. This comes from SA/UAE bypass 5.5 mbd, Iran exports + allowed ships 2.5 mbd, Iraq potential bypass 0.5-1 mbd, SPR flows 2 mbd, all other countries increase prod/Russian sanctions reduction 1 mbd. That gives 12 mbd of supply that reduces the hit from Hormuz and doesn’t include available industrial storage. Now it’s possible some of this will fall in the future but until it happens, that’s where we are.

JOPAPatch

We’re talking about the F-15E getting shot down, not MQ-9s. I would say the same thing about a RPG-7 unable to shoot down an F-15E, knowing full well it could shoot down a UH-60. I figured context mattered. And yes, SAMs for jets don’t loiter. The SA-67 loiters because its target is a loitering drone like the MQ-9 or RQ-4.

Far-Fennel-3032

Wish I was creative to make it up, thanks for the compliment but I'm really not. This is apparently it [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/358\_missile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/358_missile) [https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/missiles/358-missile-SA-67](https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/missiles/358-missile-SA-67) >The [**SA-67**](https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/missiles/358-missile-SA-67), is described as a [loitering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loiter_(aeronautics)), [SAM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface-to-air_missile) with a [Solid-Propellant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_propellant#Solid_chemical_propellants) ([SP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_propellant#Solid_chemical_propellants)) fuel [rocket-booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booster_(rocketry)) stage for launch. The [missile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile) is launched from the simplest launcher in the form of an inclined rail guide several [metres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metre) long. Once launched, the [rocket-booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booster_(rocketry)) detaches with the remainder of the flight taken over by the gas [Turbo-Jet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbojet) ([T-Jet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbojet)) engine. The [missile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile) [guidance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_guidance) is believed to be [Imaging-IR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermography) ([ImIR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermography)) seeker with an [Electro-Optical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electro-optical_targeting_system) ([EO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electro-optical_targeting_system)) 16 x [Active-Laser-Proximity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity_fuze) ([AL-PRX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity_fuze)) [fuze](https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/fuzes/01-fuze). The concept for this weapon involves [loitering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loiter_(aeronautics)) over a battlespace until a target presents itself, which it then targets. Once in the air, it maintains its [loitering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loiter_(aeronautics)) flight path, while continuously scanning its surroundings with its [ImIR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermography) seeker for potential targets. On identifying a valid target, the [missile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile) promptly heads towards the target, [detonating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detonation) its [HE-Frag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragmentation_(weaponry)) [warhead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warhead) upon reaching it. The main advantage of this is that it waits for other aircraft to get close before 'activating', resulting in the assorted defence systems just having a whole lot less time to work with compared to anti-air platforms. As it takes time to shoot off flares, lasers to kill sensors and for the pilot to react. As the platform is designed to be small and not get detected, the missile really might only have a few seconds of solid fuel, but it starts a whole lot closer than normal platforms would and likely has the target closing most of the gap for it.

-TrueFacts-

Watching some old songs from the 60s and 70s - old school shit. I guess it's safe to assume every single female in them was SA'd to get there, according to 2026 standards?

Retaining-Wall

Jesus Pampa Energia SA ($PAM) beat earnings by >9,999%

Samjabr

UAE has entered the chat. We need SA though - They are so scared of crazy people on their borders, they bought themselves one of the biggest most advanced Air Forces in the world (Hint: It's our shit)

Ecsta

> The Iranians will still keep the strait closed to the US and it's allies until a) they get everything they're asking for or b) they inflict enough economic pain that the message is effectively sent "never fuck with us again." Or you forgot the most likely option C) until they are no longer able to. UAE/SA/USA boots on the coastline seems like the most likely next escalation.

x7_omega

Iranians say it is not in their interest to let this war end, only to restart soon after. Iranians also say that land invasion will trigger destruction of gulf countries' o&g infrastructure, and for the combatants (SA, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait) other critical infrastructure. Houties and whatever Iraqi shia forces are called, are in reserve for land invasion into SA and Kuwait respectively. Bahrain has 90% shia population, so they don't even need an invasion, just insurrection without SA reaction. Iranians also say that any peace will include restoration of Lebanon territorial integrity, meaning Israel will have to go home. Also reparations and removal of USA bases from gulf are conditions of any peace. In short, there will be no peace until war gets much, much, much worse, and one or all sides are ready to surrender. The chance of Emperor of Mankind doing a runner on Israel in this bloody mess he is so fond of, is smaller than his chance of getting a Nobel peace prize now.

GhostHashira427

Right. Which is why SA and the UAE are encouraging us for regime change. Dude, the future is here. Many gulf countries are moderate and moving towards capitalism, and Iran is the weird cultish uncle that’s trying to ruin everything.

SirGus-

SA has the lowest cost of production. Spending a little over the coming years to bypass any Iranian influence is already locked in and will happen, any toll or threat from Iran will only speed it up.

tachyonvelocity

Any dips will get bought, there is a huge incentive for Iran to let ships in: [Malaysian tankers allowed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz won’t be subject to a toll imposed by Iran, according to Transport Minister Anthony Loke. - Bloomberg](http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/malaysia-says-its-tankers-will-be-exempt-from-iran-s-hormuz-toll) Since most GCC oil goes to Asia anyway, oil will simply be rerouted where US-friendly ships will go through SA-Yanbu/UAE and Asia/Iran-friendly ships will go through Hormuz.

Silent_Standard_663

With who will the UAE would invade ? By paying mercenaries? Lol The only one left would be Saudia, look how they essentially lost against a armed insurgency (Houthis). SA buys peace with money with its own people but they people are not willing to die for MBS.

Accomplished_Rip_362

We are we talking about them? SA as a state is NOT supporting Jihadists. Individuals within SA may be.

betarhoalphadelta

Possibly? I don't know where they source their forward revenue & EPS guidance. My guess it that it would be some sort of consensus synthesis from a number of known analysts. What I see from the stocks I follow closely that I have access to and read the analyst reports, their forward FY numbers aren't wildly off compared to the analysts. Either way, their numbers weren't far off the Morgan Stanley report from Mar 26 I provided. Discrepancy could equally be that the SA is a consensus number and the MS are calendar, not fiscal, year.

Electronic-Tax-1641

Is this what being SA’d feels like?

SpicyElixer

I didn’t even hear about this. I think the Barron comments are just about how this WH and family are so highly involved in business that revolve around geopolitics and current events. From crypto, to stocks, to developments, to negotiations, to deals with leaders in countries like SA. It’s just a grifter meme about a grifter meme outfit.

AgitatedStranger9698

What's teh volume on that? Because I would do that shit all day for fun if I could control that. And in Iran/SA etc not like the government is going to come knocking and scream insider trading.... Even during a visit to the US you get to quote Lethal Weapon 2!

StringLast2706

Depends on Iranian military capacity. If they occupied tomorrow, yes that would happen 100%. Down the line, as Iranian arms diminish, something different might happen. People forget, SA has done a lot of shady stuff. They killed potentially thousands of Ethiopian migrants a few years ago for trying to cross the border. War with them would be really bad for Iran, especially the civilian populace. The attacks on Gulf states scream desperation to me.

StringLast2706

Guessing they might have allied forces do most of the holding. As in Gulf states forces and SA

ProofByVerbosity

Start of the end of the peteodollar was officially last year, no? When SA abandon it?

Oneitised

Thanks, it won’t load in Türkiye so I had ChatGPT read it.. sorry haha I assume just the difference between public and private discussions considering the 2023 agreement brokered by China. Which is important for them to maintain since they have struggled in Yemen and that agreement avoids Houthi’s continuing attacks on SA or at least Iran agreed not to fund the ongoing proxy war against SA. Will take a few years probably to understand who was pushing for what, but thanks! Phone calls are probably less down each others throats typically so appreciate the source and extra view point.

Error_404_403

I do not think the US itself depends on the oil that crosses the straight. The East Asia does big time, and EU does to some extent. They can negotiate a deal with Iran; harder for EU, but not impossible. What I hear is that SA and other Sunni Arab countries are willing to fund this war, as long as it weakens Iran. So it's basically now a war of choice, a war in which T was used as a useful idiot by Israeli and Co. A smart person, even after all the mistakes, would disengage completely and try to manage the aftermath diplomatically. Not our thing, apparently. We escalate. This country requires deep, deep changes that no one but the orange regard could bring about. So here we are.

flatfisher

It’s more likely this OP is a big tech or government related account doing damage control. SA having less oil money to fuel AI investments anymore and oil not reaching Asia will have consequences. Real things are happening, it’s not only about bull bear meme and hedge funds anymore.

Oneitised

SA supposedly wanted it, where are you getting this information from? MBS was supportive according to multiple reports and I haven’t seen anything to the contrary. Mind sharing where you are getting your information as I would be curious to read.

i_make_orange_rhyme

I mean i guess theorically there could be something there. But at this time israel and America are at war with Iran. Not Saudi Arabia. SA hasnt even striked Iran themselves yet, let alone start calling in Allies. Pakistan are not looking for a reason to join a israel American war. On the contary it would be extremely hard to convince them to. Pakistan condemned the israel American attacks against Iran.

betarhoalphadelta

No MU here, but a fair bit of exposure to SNDK. This is an industry I'm intimately familiar with... So what I'm mostly talking about is the industry--everyone's gotten hammered HARD over the past week+. SeekingAlpha has FY26 earnings estimates for MU at 57.78 EPS and FY27 at 98.55 EPS. Morgan has CY26 at 59.36 EPS and CY27 at 81.36 EPS. Stock is trading at single-digit multiple to '26 (either way) and Morgan's CY27, and low single digit multiple to SA's FY27. And those multiples are not based on flim-flam--it's based on structural industry fundamentals. DRAM/NAND have often been boom/bust, but right now it looks like it's in an ***extended*** boom phase. I mean, if the AI data center buildout just completely craters, then I get the thesis that it's worth getting out. But literally every analyst, everyone in the industry, everyone tracking this stuff is suggesting a supply shortage going out well into CY27 and probably even into CY28. That suggests pricing power and good EPS... And based on the PE multiples vs projected EPS, it seems like MU is actually cheap right now. IMHO if you want out, wait and sell on the bounce, not the trough. Because I very very firmly believe the entire sector is going to bounce back.

Large_South8621

I use chat GPT and CoPilot. The portfolio orepationg system has a lot to it (see Table of Contents of document below). The directions to the AI center around retail trader that wants to run portfolio as a professional portfolio manager would. Here's the table of contents for what I created. You have to create this based on what you trade and what your risk profile is. I am a retired software engineer and managing the portfolio is quite interesting to execute/learn. [1     Contents.2](#_Toc218366362) [2     Executive Summary.7](#_Toc218366363) [3     Strategic Alpha — System Map..8](#_Toc218366364) [4     STRATEGIC ALPHA (THE SYSTEM)9](#_Toc218366365) [4.1        Strategic Alpha Overview..9](#_Toc218366366) [4.2        Core Principles.9](#_Toc218366367) [4.3        Time-Based Governance Model9](#_Toc218366368) [4.4        Portfolio Operating System (POS)9](#_Toc218366369) [4.5        Strategy Buckets & Capital Roles (Operational)9](#_Toc218366370) [4.5.1     Purpose & Authority of Buckets (Non-Negotiable)10](#_Toc218366371) [4.5.2     Bucket Definitions & Capital Roles.10](#_Toc218366372) [4.5.3      Allocation Bands & Risk Limits (Hard Caps)11](#_Toc218366373) [4.5.4     Bucket Mandates (Allowed / Prohibited Instruments)12](#_Toc218366374) [4.5.5     Bucket Eligibility by Market Posture.12](#_Toc218366375) [4.5.6     Bucket Rebalancing Rules.13](#_Toc218366376) [4.5.7     Bucket Lockout & Re-Entry Criteria.14](#_Toc218366377) [4.5.8     Governing Principle (Bucket Layer)14](#_Toc218366378) [4.6        Risk, Drawdown & Capital Protection.14](#_Toc218366379) [4.6.1     Governing Principles (Non-Negotiable)15](#_Toc218366380) [4.6.2     Portfolio Drawdown Measurement15](#_Toc218366381) [4.6.3     Drawdown Escalation Ladder (Circuit Breaker)15](#_Toc218366382) [4.6.4     Drawdown → Bucket-Level Enforcement16](#_Toc218366383) [4.6.5     Volatility Regime Override (Critical)16](#_Toc218366384) [4.6.6     Lockout, Pause, and Recovery Rules.17](#_Toc218366385) [4.6.7     Capital Preservation Actions (Authorized)17](#_Toc218366386) [4.6.8     Documentation & Accountability.18](#_Toc218366387) [4.6.9     Governing Principle (Capital Protection Layer)18](#_Toc218366388) [4.7        Measurement of Success.18](#_Toc218366389) [5     EXECUTION ENGINES (HOW THE SYSTEM ACTS)19](#_Toc218366390) [5.1        Market Big Picture & Regime Assessment19](#_Toc218366391) [5.1.1     Purpose and Scope.19](#_Toc218366392) [5.1.2     Market Type Classification (Quantitative)20](#_Toc218366393) [5.1.3     Combined Market State.24](#_Toc218366394) [5.1.4     Strategy Eligibility by Market State.24](#_Toc218366395) [5.1.5     Summary Principles (Lock These In)24](#_Toc218366396) [5.1.6     Worst-Case Contingency Plan..29](#_Toc218366397) [5.2        Global Capital Flow Engine (Macro Allocation)29](#_Toc218366398) [5.2.1     Purpose & Scope.29](#_Toc218366399) [5.2.2     Authority & Governance (Non-Negotiable)30](#_Toc218366400) [5.2.3     Capital Flow Inputs (Authoritative Set)31](#_Toc218366401) [5.2.4     Flow State Classification (Quantitative)31](#_Toc218366402) [5.2.5     Combined Flow Posture Output33](#_Toc218366403) [5.2.6     Strategy & Bucket Eligibility by Flow State.33](#_Toc218366404) [5.2.7     Conflict Resolution (Flow vs Regime)36](#_Toc218366405) [5.2.8     Summary Principles (Lock These In)37](#_Toc218366406) [5.3        Regime & Timing Engine (Elder Framework)37](#_Toc218366407) [5.2.1 Inputs.37](#_Toc218366408) [5.2.2 Outputs (permission states)37](#_Toc218366409) [5.2.3 Authority rule (non-negotiable)37](#_Toc218366410) [5.2.4 Execution artifacts.37](#_Toc218366411) [5.2.5 Trade permission flowchart38](#_Toc218366412) [5.4        Alert → Action Logic.38](#_Toc218366413) [5.5        Execution Cadence.38](#_Toc218366414) [6     PLANNING & CONTROL ARTIFACTS.39](#_Toc218366415) [6.1        2026 Annual Capital Plan.39](#_Toc218366416) [6.2        Quarterly & Furlong Planning.39](#_Toc218366417) [6.3        Sprint Execution Framework.39](#_Toc218366418) [6.4        Journaling & Review..39](#_Toc218366419) [7     APPENDICES (REFERENCE MATERIAL)40](#_Toc218366420) [7.1        Execution Checklists.40](#_Toc218366421) [7.1.1     Daily Market Readiness Checklist (Mandatory)40](#_Toc218366422) [7.1.2     Pre-Trade Authorization Checklist (Per Trade)41](#_Toc218366423) [7.1.3     Order Execution Checklist (Point of Entry)42](#_Toc218366424) [7.1.4     End-of-Day Trade Monitoring Checklist (Mandatory)42](#_Toc218366425) [7.1.5     Weekly Sprint Checklist (Governance Layer)43](#_Toc218366426) [7.1.6     Checklist Enforcement Rules (Non-Negotiable)43](#_Toc218366427) [7.1.7     Governing Principle (Execution Layer)44](#_Toc218366428) [7.2        Playbooks.44](#_Toc218366429) [7.2.1     Bullish Regime Playbook.45](#_Toc218366430) [7.2.2     Neutral Regime Playbook.46](#_Toc218366431) [7.2.3     Bearish Regime Playbook.47](#_Toc218366432) [7.2.4     Stress Regime Playbook.48](#_Toc218366433) [7.3        Regime Tables & Tool Eligibility.49](#_Toc218366434) [7.3.1     Market Posture → Tool Eligibility Matrix.49](#_Toc218366435) [7.3.2     Instrument Eligibility Table.50](#_Toc218366436) [7.3.3     Core Options Instrument Eligibility (Atomic Layer)50](#_Toc218366437) [7.3.4     Instrument Permission Overlay (Regime-Aware)51](#_Toc218366438) [7.3.5     Governing Rule (Instrument Layer)52](#_Toc218366439) [7.3.6     Volatility Regime → Risk Controls.52](#_Toc218366440) [7.3.7     Elder Triple Screen Alignment52](#_Toc218366441) [7.3.8     Governing Principle (Close of Section)53](#_Toc218366442) [7.4        Trade Construction Rules.53](#_Toc218366443) [7.4.1     Governing Principles (Non-Negotiable)53](#_Toc218366444) [7.4.2     Position Sizing Rules (by Market Posture)54](#_Toc218366445) [7.4.3     Delta Selection Rules.54](#_Toc218366446) [7.4.4     Expiration Selection Rules.55](#_Toc218366447) [7.4.5     Strike Placement Rules.55](#_Toc218366448) [7.4.6     Stop & Exit Rules.56](#_Toc218366449) [7.4.7     Trade Duration Rules.56](#_Toc218366450) [7.4.8     Regime Deterioration Override.56](#_Toc218366451) [7.4.9     Governing Rule (Construction Layer)57](#_Toc218366452) [7.5        Monitoring & Escalation Protocols.57](#_Toc218366453) [7.5.1     Monitoring Cadence (with Tooling)57](#_Toc218366454) [7.5.2     Daily Monitoring Log (Mandatory)58](#_Toc218366455) [7.5.3     Trade Review States (Green / Yellow / Red)61](#_Toc218366456) [7.6        Scan Definitions.65](#_Toc218366457) [7.7        Definition of Terms.65](#_Toc218366458) [7.7.1     Backwardation..65](#_Toc218366459) [7.7.2     Contango..65](#_Toc218366460) [7.8        Plant UML Document Code.66](#_Toc218366461) [7.8.1     Elder Impulse System – Trade Permission Flow..66](#_Toc218366462) [7.9        Appendix F – Account Groupings.68](#_Toc218366463) [7.10      Appendix E — Versioning & Change Log..68](#_Toc218366464) [7.11      Playbooks.69](#_Toc218366465) [7.11.1       Regime Workspace – Operator Playbook.69](#_Toc218366466) [7.12      Execution Play Sheets.72](#_Toc218366467) [7.12.1       Bear Put Spread — Execution Play Sheet72](#_Toc218366468) [7.12.2       Bull Put Spread — Execution Play Sheet76](#_Toc218366469) [7.13      Daily Checklists.81](#_Toc218366470) [7.13.1       Regime Daily Checklist81](#_Toc218366471) [7.14      ThinkOrSwim Scans.83](#_Toc218366472) [7.14.1       Elder\_RED\_Breakdown (+Weekly)83](#_Toc218366473) [7.14.2       Elder\_RED\_FadeRally (+Weekly)84](#_Toc218366474) [7.14.3       How These Two Scans Work Together86](#_Toc218366475) [7.15      Strategic Alpha — ThinkOrSwim Workspace Architecture (v1)86](#_Toc218366476) [7.15.1       Purpose of Workspaces.86](#_Toc218366477) [7.15.2       Workspace 1 — SA Regime.87](#_Toc218366478) [7.15.3       Intermediate Decisions Layer - SA Tactical Direction States.89](#_Toc218366479) [7.15.4       Workspace 3 — SA Cash Flow Engine.90](#_Toc218366480) [7.15.5       Workspace 4 — SA Growth Tax Deferred..94](#_Toc218366481)

No-Insurance100

So tired of hearing nonsense from American nationalists claiming the USAF is carpet bombing Tehran. Not a single American manned aircraft has overflown Tehran except maybe a B-2. Every attack is with standoff munitions and Tomahawks. They launched more Tomahawks in one month than the entire Iraq War. American pilots are terrified to go into Iran proper. Remember the Vietnamese were dropping B-52s like crazy with old Soviet SA-2s

Valuable-Term9559

Iranians can hit ships in the SOH from anywhere in the Country and all it takes us a $20k drone of which they have thousands. You can’t control the Strait unless you completely obliterate Iran, or come to some diplomatic solution. But now Israel AND most of Iran’s surrounding States allied to us, like SA, UAE, Qatar and more, want Iran gone. And there’s a real argument that this might be the time and the only time. Next time they might have a bomb—then they TRULY hold all the cards.

Mother___Night

The us can’t even defend their bases in Kuwait and SA—hf they gonna hold an enemy island?

Dear_Smoke6964

When I see 🥭 and SA in the same sentence why does my brain always jump to sexual assault? 

GrillAndChill420

Lying about Stratotankers getting bombed in SA - weak shit mango man

Shot-Welcome-2822

Buls really taking that 20 tanker bait. Only Iranian oil is going out. Breakdown of pre war oil exports through strait: SA - 37.2% Iraq - 22.8% UAE - 12.9% Iran - 10.6% Kuwait - 10.1% Qatar/Bahrain - 6.4%

jetbridgejesus

I'll get a gt3 when you can actually get one w out sucking off the SA. 911s are the only thing they have worth buying and they know it.

Historical_Bother274

How the fuck would a proxy war be started after the main powers already started a war. How would suddenly SA and Houthi's start fighting and the other countries just pull out for no reason. Are you by any chance the foreign advisor of mango?

Icy_Jelly_315

Can't be done. Iraq took 500k troops each time. You can just walk into Iraq from Kuwait or from SA if Kuwait been invaded and then it's flat all the way to Baghdad. Iran is hostile neighbours, and mountains

NWHipHop

The Presidents a 34 count felon so it would make me eligible to be a Republican candidate. I'm not willing to SA children though. So I guess I'm not Christian enough. I'll at least use a sharpie

henristig

My big bet for 6G (and later stage 5G SA) is Beammwave (BEAMMW_B). As @invisibleEar says, more capacity and more speed requires higher frequencies, which unfortunately lack the physical properties to reach far and penetrate physical objects. 5G has kinda failed on its initial glorious promises because of this constraint, as the technology for leveraging spectrum beyond 6 Ghz was never really adequately solved. The tech in use today is analog beamforming, and to make a longwinded technical explanation short, it just doesn't work in practise - it can't keep up with spatial change, it's bulky, lossy and heat-constrained and requires line-of-sight. Devices keep dropping the connection and revert back to sub-6Ghz. Operators are getting basically zero traffic offload from their billions of investments into mmWave (FR3) except for FWA (fixed wireless access) which still struggles with line-of-sight issues and fussy installment due to the bulk of the analog panels anf the LoS need. This whole problem will come to a head with 6G, where the capacity and speed of the higher frequency bands of FR2 and FR3 become crucial and unlock integrating network sensing and communications (ISAC), which 6G aspires to. The textbook way to solve this is through digital beamforming, but so far the industry has dismissed it as impossible energy- and cost-wise. Beammwave has spent over 10 years on this and now they're at a stage where they've proven their technology works and is even more cost- and energy efficient than analog beamforming. They're now in the process of industrializing their chips together with one of the biggest chip fabs in the world (GlobalFoundries). It's kind of ridiculous this tiiiiny Swedish company can sweep into the world of telecom giants, and revolutionize the foundation like this, but this is exactly the setup and they already have customers in all of their target markets (smartphones, fixed wireless access and base stations). Naturally, the TAM is wild. They're listed on the rather obscure NASDAQ first north exchange, and trade at a market cap of 40M USD. Considering where they're at, and with mass production about to start within the year, I find it a steal. A unicorn-valuation will just be a start if all goes home.

Marcoyolo69

Iran has 3 times the population of SA and they have lots of experience fighting their own people

Great-Television1775

Apple is going to love this countries I-raq I-ran What next I-SA? I-anada 🤔

VellyJanta

1 and #2 will never be accepted by Israel and #5 by SA.

neo-futurism

here we go. swearing in another r\*dn\*ck with a SA history.

johndsmits

probably right. If UAE/SA get in the war, then Paks will get in for Iran and we know what they got: kaboom. More so if Russia goes 2 front now they can sell oil for $$.

mrmagootoyou2

A report today also came out saying they are worried about SA AF losing half their pilots to misadventures whatever the fuck that means

NewAccount428412

Only plausible bull scenario i see is other countries in the Middle east dog piling in on Iran in retaliation and making things real bad there. Saudis dont mind using cluster bombs and white phosphorus on population centers they did that shit in Yemen. SA gets to take the heat for war crimes. Iran becomes a hellscape. SPY 700.

Hinohellono

I wouldn't make any plays concerning SA until after the war is over. Too many unknowns for me.

Ragdoll2023

I’m a newbie to this so need all the wise ones comments before I invest anywhere. Just looked like a potential opportunity unless as someone else pointed out Iran starts successfully hitting SA infrastructure.

legbreaker

This is what Trump is telling himself and is just counting how hard it will be for Iran to take back the island. Meanwhile Iran has just been fighting by asymmetric warfare. They will not send one soldier or missile towards Kharg. They just bomb oil harbors and infrastructure in UAE, SA and Qatar. This is the same failed theory that got Trump here, that somehow Iran is going to fold if the economic pain gets too hard?

Vegetable_Push6542

Hypothetically if mass protests started in SA and the Saudis started mowing down the protestoes like the IRGC do you think the USA would tell the Saudis to stop or would it turn a blind eye

Detail4

The SA was the thugs and SS more polished yes. Both were murderous fanatics. SS was pretty competent at doing bad things.

youarenut

As an extremely dark thought… imagine all the thousands of SA or worse about to happen when ICE feels like targeting random women/men. Can just take you to a room and do whatever

torokunai

actually the NVN model is what I was talking about, our boots vs. their materiel and MI. Both Communist China and Moscow's material and technical support kept the Hanoi regime going toe-to-toe with us 1965-72. When SA-7s started appearing in II and III Corps in '72, we knew our gooses were cooked.

AggieDem

Iran has a larger population then Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait combined. In terms of active military personnel, Iraq has 193k and SA has 247k, while Iran has 610k. Iran also has conscription meaning most of their adult male population could rejoin the military if push really came to shove.

fackin-bindis

The news from the middle east could support this, but the volume has really decreased. Would need to see some attention from institutions at this point. Brent crude hit $111 yesterday, ME largest oilfield in SA struck last night. The conflict is only escalating despite what state heads are trying to say. This was the primary catalyst for this stock so fingers crossed. I have a large (for me) position still and i'm long regardless but I wont say no to some more swing trades!!

Subymoa

Iran is bombing SA oil facilities and says retaliation is not done yet. OIL up up up.

kazkeb

The bad thing is that you have to be a vampire to trade while you're there. You've got the right idea with the SA/LA thing.

SuspiciousStable9649

What if SA or UAE gets mad at the U.S. for working with Iran (shipping) while Iran attacks SA and UAE? I’m curious what Israel thinks of this too.

Get_dat_money

Imagine how pissed off SA and UAE are at 🥭. He must be sleeping well at night

Boring_Factor1867

One of his friends and religious advisor or whatever the hell they called him. A preacher none the less , was given 6 months for SA a minor . He should STFU about courts’ fairness right about now

thousandfoldthought

I'll add - it looks like the Americas belonging to US is the way it was sold to the trump/gop (i believe many dems are okay with this too... and know), but china already has its claws in SA, and they aren't going to let it go.

asuka_rice

There’s already a pipe in SA that pumps oil to the other coast.

Low_Plastic363

You're doing this in Argentina or wherever in SA it is you live?

culturefan

I find them worth it. You need to acquaint yourself with their method of buy and hold--it's worth it if you read their book, You Have More Than You Think beforehand. But I've made a bunch of money off some of their recs (AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, etc.). I've lost some too, but the gains have more than made up for it to me, and I've been buying thier SA newsletter for around 18 years. I think one of the things currently affecting things is we're in an overprice market with geopolitical turmoil due to Trump: tariffs, oil, etc., but given time those things will shift & sort themselves out.

greenpride32

Countries can dig into their own reserves as well outside of IEA. It's not as though this is the only stockpile that exists. SA always produces more than it sells and stockpiles some - theoretically it could export some reserve through the Red Sea and out the Suez to Europe.

RedditConsciousness

You're right I shouldn't have humored your idea that we should not pick any countries in the region to ally with. Because no matter you pick, there are criticisms to be had. But SA is not the same Iran. Minor ties to AQ is not "Our policy is to support Hezbollah and Hamas and hide amongst civilians all day long". But I'm not interested in continuing your attempt to change the topic. If "KSA" is all you have to say to defend the evil Iranian regime then I accept your surrender on this topic.

SecretPantyWorshiper

No, the Iranians hit the ones in Bahrain and SA first 

anthony_doan

> What’s the impact to oil prices long term if only the Chinese and a few others can get ME oil for the foreseeable future? More profit for shale oil USA companies. USA is the #1 oil producing country, thanks to shale. USA is more than double than the next country, Saudi Arabia. Shale oil fracking require oil to be at a certain price point. OPEC attempted to bankrupt US shale oil companies a few time by increasing oil output and lowering the oil price. Unfortunately SA cannot do this any longer because lower oil price affect their government's capability to generate revenue to run the country. I've seen people talked about shale oil output peaking. Anyway the only reason we're still affected by oil pricing is because we don't have the infrastructure capacity to refine our shale oil (sweet oil). So the only think I know and best guess is profit for shale oil companies. As for anything else no clue. I think USA going to have some kinda of bankrupcy or austerity after Trump and this administration is gone. Pete Hegseth blew billions in a month. Noem Kristi stole $125 millions. It'll affect our credit bonds and Japan have raise their interest so Japan isn't going to bankroll us. Lowering interest rate isn't going work.

johndsmits

Seeing India's response, SA & Russia (this, aka lifted sanctions) flooding the oil markets? Closing green folks.