SAM

Regarded-Mastodon

Because they are too big to fail. Uncle SAM is there for them with the handouts if they fuck up too bad. So security i guess?

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

Key upcoming events for AI investors: - **MRVL Analyst Day, Monday Oct 6**: attach revenue and SAM. - **Hyperscaler Q3 prints, late October**: 2027 capex growth rate. - **Anthropic IPO, before Thanksgiving**: More funding to buy AI hardware

Unable_Brilliant6652

**How is this for substance? I got my research** **partner** **to pull up all of the TDR podcast episodes in the last six months where they discussed the fact that this sort of thing was going to**** ****happen…** **SHOCKER**** ****it happened****.** **Not** **financial advice do your own DD.** **April 24 — “Schedule III Is Official — What Comes Next?”** Michael Bronstein said his coalition was preparing to **defend the rescheduling effort against anticipated legal challenges**. That’s basically the setup you remembered: the policy move happens, and then opponents try to attack it through the courts. **May 5 — “House Passes Farm Bill…”** This one is particularly strong for what you’re looking for. They explicitly discussed the **anticipated legal challenge from Smart Approaches to Marijuana (SAM)**. Bronstein said he thought SAM would have a difficult case and that a stay was unlikely, but the important point is they were already discussing the challenge as expected. **May 6 — “Curaleaf Earnings…”** TDR reported that **SAM had filed a formal petition**, calling it the first move in a legal challenge to the rescheduling process. **May 29 — “Rescheduling Lawsuit, Curaleaf Feedback & MSO Merger Talk”** By then the thing had escalated. Indiana, Nebraska and Louisiana had sued, and that case was consolidated with challenges from **SAM and NDASA**. The whole episode asks whether the lawsuits could slow rescheduling or whether they would ultimately fail. **June 11–12 — opponents seek a stay / “Big Changes Are Hitting The Cannabis Industry Now”** TDR covered NDASA and MMJ International asking the D.C. Circuit to **freeze the rescheduling order while the litigation proceeded**, with SAM and several states involved in the broader consolidated challenge. The June 12 show specifically analyzed the lawsuit attacking the procedure used to move cannabis to Schedule III. **June 23 — “The Most Important Hearing In Cannabis History”** Bronstein again discussed SAM, NDASA, MMJ International and the three state AGs, their consolidated lawsuit and **motion to stay**. They specifically asked whether a court-issued stay could disrupt the ALJ proceedings. **June 29–July 1 — ALJ hearing coverage.** TDR was still framing SAM and the other opponents as trying to delay or undermine the process and noted that arguments developed during the hearing could feed the **parallel D.C. Circuit litigation**. **July 7 — “We Are Live From The ALJ…”** This may be the clearest Bronstein example. After SAM’s testimony, Bronstein said opponents appeared increasingly focused on **procedural objections rather than the underlying science**, and characterized that as a likely **long-game strategy aimed at future court challenges**. **August 18 — Trade To Black with Michael Bronstein.** After the closing-brief deadline, Bronstein said the ALJ process would proceed through findings and objections, followed by DEA action, and that the final order was **likely to draw litigation**.

cryptohorn

[SAM AND ELON HAVE COMPETITION WITH THIS MEME](https://youtube.com/shorts/RbSO3Fg1W4w?is=BuULxIPEuRvFP1XA)

four_twenty_4_20

So, I'm convinced SAM etc want to delay this as long as possible because they recognize their only real out at this point would be Trump dying. All bets are off at that point.

Turbul

I’d rather not, she’s intimate with SAM

MatrixOrigin

Up yours, SAM!

NotMe357

"SAM ALTMAN SAYS OPENAI IS SO GPU-CONSTRAINED HE SPENDS HIS DAYS BEGGING FOR MORE He says ChatGPT’s growth is pushing infrastructure and teams to their limits: - Altman says OpenAI is incredibly constrained by GPU availability - He says he has never seen growth like ChatGPT’s at any company he has been involved with - ChatGPT had around 500 million weekly active users at the last disclosed count and is still growing rapidly"

BoJo_Nose6969

I can understand taking a little bit longer than necessary just to button down the language so shit doesn't hit the fan when groups like SAM try to litigate.  End of the day, it's going to happen! 

CMTTrader

\*OPENAI WEIGHS FUNDING ROUND AT $1.2T VALUATION BEFORE IPO: FT \*OPENAI'S SAM ALTMAN 'CONFIDENT' INDUSTRY CAN KEEP AI SAFE *Just trust me, bro*

NoAbbreviations1653

BREAKING NEWS: SAM ALTMAN JUST IN——— When we talk about “pacing”, we do not mean “stopping”. Progress has been rapid and will continue to be. But it should be slower than it otherwise could be; interventions like safety cases and monitoring have significant costs.

drdrek

I like to bash them as the next guy l, but reporters are acting regarded for clicks and spicy talking point and its working. TAM is total addressable market the entire world you operate in. They say its the entire world white color job market 30T Out of that you will take SAM serviceable addressable market they can only work in places with open internet acess, no government limitations, language barriers, etc Out of that you will take SOM serviceable obtainable market so how much you can take out of that? You have competition, marketing costs, etc Both are going to be significantly smaller. Still unrealistic and regardrd and they will crash, but not everyone working and investing in them are idiots. I know its fun to shit on the ultra rich and pretend the are all dumber than the average Wendy's employee but journalism is down the toilet 

Super-Activity-4675

INFQ - may want to consider buying this off hours as they are a part of some 42B contract. It's on [SAM.gov](http://SAM.gov) but the company didn't announce it. SLS

ICallASpadeASpade

I IDENTIFY AS A BANK HOLDING COMPANY—SO KOW IF MY YOLOs FAIL, UNCLE SAM HAS TO FOOT THE BILL. LIKE IF YOU IDENTIFY SIMILARLY.

_Doomer_Wojack_

👀 BREAKING: Trump has just made a last-minute unexpected visit to Camp David, aboard the Marine One VH-3D helicopter, per flight tracking data. This comes as the White House press pool has been silent for over 14 hours and multiple SAM (Special Air Mission) flights took off last night carrying Cabinet members, senior staff, and other officials. The visit comes just 2 days before the official US-Iran ceasefire expires on Monday, August 17.

SangerGRBY

Monday Morning MANGO SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDER, USA WILL NOT BE HONORING DEBT OBLIGATIONS. AI CIRCULAR FINANCING COMES UNDER SCRUTINY AS INTERNAL MEMOS REVEAL ACCOUNTING FRAUD ON AN UNPRECENDENT SCALE. JENSEN HUANG, SAM ALTMAN, ELON MUSK, ARRESTED BY SEC US NAVY ACCIDENTALLY SHOOTS DOWN CHINESE AIRLINES TENSION RISES. CHINA AND RUSSIA STRIKES DATA CENTRES IN USA

civillyRange

So basically open ai said were buying a gorillion units of ram the stock market believed it and now we're all paying out the ass for a new Playstation. FUCK YOU SAM ALTMAN STOP TOUCHING YOIR SISTER 

Le_pants_de_marche

☝️ As soon as I heard SNDK doing buybacks I stopped buying in. I believe they don't outright own their own fabs (joint partnership with Kioxia) so room for expansion won't be the same scale as others so they have to burn the money somehow 🤷‍♂️ I believe that's why WDC & Kioxia all got hit the hardest as they're all interlinked. MU, SAM & SKHY all ramping expansion is a good so didn't get punished as hard, main drop on the latter two is more the Korean macro IMHO.

CreativeLet5355

Why is anyone trying to drive standard financial analysis on their market cap from existing financials ? Makes zero sense. They haven’t sought to monetize their business. This is the equivalent of a pre revenue company valuation. You value their product and its TAM/SAM and its ability to protest itself against competitive threats and its positioning accordingly. And your confidence they’ll monetize, at what rate, then discount to current. Yes. It’s a wild ass guess. So? But running a valuation model on their current finances is just….not bright.

idkuhhhhhhh5

Okay, here’s the issue with this. I’m going to assume you’re (although making an extreme suggestion) talking in good faith, so I’ll respond in kind. What would this accomplish? They have already demonstrated that their military assets are decentralized enough that you would have 0 areas that would make a *military* difference. Even if you have a target that has some missile launchers, they’re so decentralized that you would be instantly killing thousands of civilians per SAM site. That’s not some “well they’re using civilians as human shields” topics, given that 1.8 million Americans live in the direct surrounding area of Naval Station Norfolk. You would have no tactical benefit. That’s even if you think they represent a real threat, but what unique threat do they represent? North Korea is an autocracy ran by a nutcase, directly bordering a US allied nation that has US military bases in it, and we haven’t had missile strikes in Pyongyang. Pakistan, the nation that held Osama Bin Laden for years, the country Seal Team 6 had to evade when they killed him, has had nukes for a while. Iran has, for decades, represented a significantly lower threat than either of those countries, while having even less money. They represent no threat to the continental US. They’ve funded actual terrorism less than Saudi Arabia (an “ally”), hosted less actual terrorism than Pakistan (fine apparently), what would be the point? Let’s say there’s a point. Let’s say maybe we should be bombing them. What cost is acceptable? Let’s say we nuke them, we destroy a couple (conventional) missiles, and instantly kill 10,000 civilians (a very conservative estimate). Who in the world will see us as the good guys? The answer is nobody. Nobody will. It would unify the entire region against us. It would destroy any of our remaining reputation. Not just that, we would have used a nuclear weapon on a country which hasn’t used nuclear weapons, to prevent them from using nuclear weapons. We would be showing the world that WE aren’t the country that should be trusted with nukes. Not them. Us. For what? Iran represents less of a real threat to us than Russia or China, the only country in the region they represent an actual threat to is Israel, and if you legitimately believe that we should embrace a tactically futile, strategically suicidal, and politically ruinous action just so Israel doesn’t have to fund their own defense, consider the fact that you don’t give two shits about the US.

stupidpower

...On the first count yes on the second count they are desperately pulling stuff from open air tank graveyards commercial sattelites have been tracking. The reason Russia ended up having to get a good chunk of Iran's shaheed stockpile and now relying on cheap ass drones is because they ran out of Kalibrs. Russia is using ICBMs today for what Iskanders should be doing. You can always make do with what you have, its going to be more costly or less efficient or put people in more danger. The US can resort to throwing JDAMs at Iran indefinitely, Iran will just be able to take more SAM shots and potentially down fighters.

bslaven3

I need to start investing in SAM, TAP, or BUD because losing all my gains on Friday makes me want to drink all weekend

volckerwasright

In reality, SAM is totally locked out of this administration when this time 2 years ago Sabet was schmoozing with Milgram at DEA events.

sephirothFFVII

I feel like this is one of those stupid headlines If a SAM operator knows the impact will be in the middle of the desert with no damage they'll let it through and spare the interceptor. An apology to this is you're on an AEGIS equipped destroyer and you see the missile on track to splash in the ocean a mile away you'll let it just do that.

Dry_Cranberry_9715

$SAM reported earnings yesterday. Light double beat and OK guidance, trades at a cheap P/E and has 22% short interest. Watching it at the open

simply_colorkarma

Today’s world is all about Marketing. Go look up OAC and CVS. You will see her nail these companies on how their “captive strategy” is nothing except US, going from their medical system, to their pharma system to their service system. Basically their growth strategy is to make sure we only use CVS (even when it may not be obvious it is a CVS product or service), to capture more of the addressable market. Addressable market is just how big they assume it is. TAM, (Total) SAM (Served). Total is total pie, they do not expiate what they can serve now or how long to get to a certain percentage of the TAM. Most of his TAM is being captured by shoving AI computing into space so the computers keep cool. Anthropic is willing to pay over a billion. But that is only one of the AI companies. No one addresses the challenges of putting these massive data centers into space and no one mentions how that will be serviced or supported. AI is completely and utterly incestuous. Look up an article in Bloomberg called the AI Circular Loop. They highlight and visually show the "circular AI economy" where major developers and hardware manufacturers create a self-reinforcing financial loop, with investments flowing back to hardware suppliers as revenue. Why do you think AI is growing at massive numbers in orders, but the rest of the economy is not. The two biggest sectors are AI and Finance. Finance because we are going into debt faster and using our credit cards more to pay things. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-10-07/openai-s-nvidia-amd-deals-boost-1-trillion-ai-boom-with-circular-deals So SpaceX biggest growth is still their billionaire buddies, so they can all become trillionaires or more. So Andy, Alex, Doug, Andrew and Elon buy chips from CC, Jensen, Jun Young and they then sell it back to Elon and Besos to put it into space. (Not all CEOs mentioned but all are there) Now ask yourself - how do the rest of the companies grow? People won’t be servicing it - automation will. Marketing is the root of all evil. It’s why they want AI to lower our cognitive thinking. We will believe their marketing shit faster. Always look for what they are not saying, and always listen to their analyst questions asked at quarterly reports. I have no pitty when someone complains about a product they bought on line and didn’t do the basics like look up the return policy, and they complain about them paying return shipping or a fee. And to add to this - ask yourself why this administration wants to remove quarterly reporting from the FCC. No transparency is now just gambling on growth and minimum exposure to dig into the details. Now ask yourself why Warren Buffet is dumping stocks and has been putting more and more into cash - that man smells the five alarm fire before they happen. Always ask why!! W Other note: ask what the challenges are, what percent do they expect competitors to capture and more. The biggest reason Elon and other auto manufacturers don’t want any Chinese EVs or certain EU gas cars is because then, the rest of America will see how much better their products are. They dominate in range on EV, theirs is $13k, compared to a $60k EV here. Their EVs are everywhere outside the US. You can’t capture what you don’t have access to. Thats not competition. True capitalism is all about competition. Competition makes for better products, not cheaper or less quality. That version of capitalism sadly died in the early 80’s and no one realizes it yet.

miata_only

> Stocks start their slide as SAM sites shoot Shaheds over the Strait

Imaginary_Rooster622

LOL. I definitely agree that Schedule 3 is in the bag. I was just wondering how many times SAM got slapped down. I read somewhere that his star witness Bertha said that Cannabis has Medical Use. ;)

Gunk_Olgidar

>What I’m trying to figure out is how experienced investors are looking at this moment. Is this mainly a normal pullback after a strong run, or is the market starting to price in a different outlook for tech? It's *at least* a profit-taking and 10% correction following bubblesque irrational exuberance. But given the news about companies halting their very brief 1H26 "damn the torpedoes full AI ahead" strategies after blowing their entire 2026 budget while also not seeing the ROI on replacing headcount with these LLM-based tools, I'd say the latter is more the case right now. Questions you can work to answer yourself for homework: * How much money is there in the TAM for currently marketed AI products to go get as revenue each year? * From whom? (i.e. what is the TAM). And what's the SAM and SOM for 2H 2026 and 2027? * How does the size of the TAM & SAM & SOM compare to the market capitalization of the companies with the largest 5 AI products? * Who's actually still using those products and paying for them in July 2026? * What is a typical ROIC valuation for a tech company in the last 20 years? * And what relative valuations are these AI companies at right now?

p3pp3rjack

SAM and Sabet are the worst

iShitBloodandCumShit

Lmfao. Kevin Sabet of SAM is trying to claim budtenders are recommending weed to pregnant women. Top fucking retard.

Kutukuprek

This video features an interview with journalist Natalie Fertig about her experience attending the recent DEA administrative hearing regarding the rescheduling of cannabis. The opposition spent hours methodically arguing against rescheduling by highlighting potential medical harms, such as teen psychosis. However, the DEA bypassed these extensive arguments and focused on just two core points: confirming that cannabis has not directly caused any fatal overdoses and establishing that it has potential medical use. By securing admissions on these two points, the DEA effectively demonstrated that cannabis does not meet the strict criteria to remain a Schedule I substance. **Key Details from the Hearing:** **The Setting \[**[**02:00**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU6p-u9xiAQ&t=120)**\]:** The hearing was incredibly dry and highly restricted, taking place in a sterile courtroom at the DEA headquarters in Pentagon City. Attendees had to sit in oversized pews and were barred from using laptops or phones. **The Opposition's Case \[**[**04:15**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU6p-u9xiAQ&t=255)**\]:** The anti-rescheduling side methodically presented years of studies and tragic personal testimonies (including a mother whose teenage son experienced a severe psychotic break) to argue that cannabis is dangerous. **The DEA's "Mic Drop" \[**[**06:50**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU6p-u9xiAQ&t=410)**\]:** While Fertig expected a lengthy cross-examination, the DEA only asked about three questions. They didn't attempt to dispute the negative side effects; instead, they simply established that marijuana doesn't directly kill people and has *some* medical utility. **Expert Concessions \[**[**15:28**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU6p-u9xiAQ&t=928)**\]:** A major moment involved Dr. Kenneth Finn, a pain management specialist testifying for the opposition. Under questioning from the DEA, he conceded that nobody has stopped breathing from cannabis use and admitted he would be open to prescribing it if it went through standard FDA approval processes \[[18:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU6p-u9xiAQ&t=1116)\]. **Legal Strategy \[**[**13:09**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU6p-u9xiAQ&t=789)**\]:** Overhearing the opposition's lawyers after the hearing, Fertig noted they seemed to fully expect the DEA to go through with the rescheduling and were already preparing their strategy to appeal or challenge the decision in court later. **--------------** All in all, a favorable read from Natalie Fertig. My opinion \- It's the best we can hope for: an S3 rescheduling + follow up lawsuits to block it \- We can never expect SAM to stop challenging, it's the whole purpose of their existence \- The likelihood of an appeal working on this next year to me has no/little legal basis \- In the meantime the law will have to continue \- The separate legal thing happening on the bifurcation of medical/recreational and granting only S3 to medical is a potential blocker, but let's see In the end, if Trump wants this it will be unwise for Republicans to go against his wishes. In the judiciary as well, as we've seen with his comments on the Supreme Court. And Democrats generally have had a pro-cannabis stance so coming out against this is also unwise. SAM and the various anti-cannabis groups like pharma/alcohol will keep pushing this but that's not a new thing.. Trump would have known about SAM and the money behind them when he first signed the EO last year. Being denied on an issue like cannabis will make him look weak. And if Trump cannot bear one thing, it's looking weak. Imagine if the rescheduling gets blocked, the EOY election message will be "Trump can't even get cannabis rescheduled, and that's with the house/senate. If an issue like cannabis can't get sorted under this admin, what can?" It feels like it'll be somewhat turbulent and look uncertain but will come out favorable for rescheduling in the end. [](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU6p-u9xiAQ)

zerowaitestate

They have spent like the better part of 40 years getting ready for this. This is not Venezuela. They expected a large air campaign, and countered by specializing in intermediate range ballistic weapons/drones and burying or hiding a lot of their ordinance, plus performing some tricks with their SAM's given the terrain to make them harder to suppress and thus more deadly to tactical bombers. They appear to have a looser command structure that can withstand assassination of command staff, something that the Iraqis could never manage.

mrlloydslastcandle

SAM c00kedman 

Flipside68

Next tweet from SAM “I meant no! I clearly said no.”

AverageNo130

>SAM Witness Acknowledges Marijuana Fits Schedule III Definition During DEA Rescheduling Hearing MH

KAI5ER

Fun little tidbit of news unintentionally from from SAM. **The Schedule III "Gotcha" Moment**: During a remarkably brief, **five-minute cross-examination** by the DEA, Dr. Madros (SAM's star witness) was asked whether cannabis fits the legal definition of **Schedule III**, and she answered ***yes.***

KAI5ER

Using the last of my Fable5 access ;) **The government came out swinging and rested fast.** The DEA's lead counsel opened by framing the entire hearing around "currently accepted medical use" (CAMU) — arguing that if even one accepted medical use exists, marijuana legally cannot stay in Schedule I. The government presented just two witnesses: Dr. Dominic Chiapperino of the FDA, who described the scientific process behind the Schedule III recommendation, and Dr. Corey Burchman, a pain physician who testified about transitioning patients from opioids to marijuana. The government rested its case-in-chief within four days. **Crucially, the legal framing favors rescheduling:** HHS's scientific and medical determinations on CAMU bind the DEA by statute, and Julius said he can't entertain arguments about whether the HHS two-part test is legally permissible. That dramatically limits what the opposition can attack. **The opposition has shifted strategy.** NDASA's witnesses focused on workplace drug testing and transportation safety rather than challenging the medical science — and legal observers note their arguments may do opponents more good in judicial review or public messaging than before the ALJ on the merits. Translation: they're building a record for the D.C. Circuit appeal, not trying to win the hearing. **SAM's Kevin Sabet is publicly rattled** — calling the government's testimony "surreal" and claiming they're "lying through their teeth". That's not what winning sounds like. **What's left:** SAM, DUID Victim Voices, Finn, Tennessee Bureau of Investigation, Drum, and the four states present after the recess — so this week through July 15. Updated odds: I'd nudge **Schedule III finalization up to \~85%**. The hearing is going about as well as the pro-rescheduling side could hope. The post-order Barr lawsuit remains the real fight.

KAI5ER

That's the SAM/Barr play. Estimate: **20-25%**, meaningfully higher than the pre-hearing stay was, but still against them.

MatrixOrigin

SAM's BS testimony spooking the markets? lol Sabet is for sure climaxing at the sight of $MSOS

Equivalent_Smell_325

SAM presenting their case-in-chief for the first time today, wondering how it's going

lifetwoshort

I would stay focused on this with money. SAM is not going away. Lucy still is alive. Far too many pitfalls to dodge.

lifetwoshort

SAM is going to win until congress acts. I hate watching all the cockiness when Lucy is alive. Lucy lives until congress kills her!

Handsome_Chewbacca

Fuck SAM. I hope all those fucks are enjoying long sleepless nights.

Vito_GYATafore

Hope you all bought $SAM calls on Thursday because I'm gonna be drinking a trillion twisted teas today

Own_Fold_5212

“This hearing is NOT about recreational use, this is about rescheduling cannabis to schedule 3” - DEA lawyer Sounds very clearly like holistic, right off the bat 😁 Play it again, SAM

Investomatic-

I have had a few interactions with Kevin Sabet... and if SAM eats dicks, he's a cannibal.

ENTRAPM3NT

Wish they would live stream it so everyone can see how big of clowns SAM actual is

tails2729

RELEASE THE IPO SAM! How else are we supposed to save OpenAI?!?

Thumbszilla

What do we think about next week? I'm guessing SAM is going to push some pretty rough articles out that's going to put selling pressure on cannabis stocks. One more dip before launch? Agree? Disagree?

_freckles__

Its just money, plus its free. How is it that SAM Altman can ask for 60bn$ to a trillion$ just because he is SAM altman and i cannot ask for 300k$ Bro bringing classism into begging. I am just raising capital to fund my life - for your classy regards

AverageNo130

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is resisting a prohibitionist group’s (SAM) request for an agency official, Luli Akinfiresoye, to testify about the harms of marijuana during a [hearing on the Trump administration’s move to reschedule cannabis](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-judge-issues-order-laying-out-process-for-marijuana-rescheduling-hearing-starting-this-month/) that is scheduled to start next week. MM

ybl84f1

*"To me, POC, the Value High and Value Low act as guideposts when i am about to place a trade. Fully aware that they shift over time"* Usually when Redditors proclaim some technique and then it's back-tested against historic data the observation/suggestions/advice resolve to something like "well these are just things to consider and not always true", or in this case they're "*guideposts*". And because these "guideposts" are not always true...and not true enough regularly or consistently (at least by themselves) to trade successfully over the long term, they eventually devolve into something like your statement "*not all things go as planned , but one needs to be situationally-aware*". In other words volume profiles are data and it's unclear what other factors may make a volume profile useful data or not to consider and when to. *"On the last point about market destroying trading patterns posted in public , I am not so sure I agree with this. If you count the number of studies and indicators in TOS, it will make your head spin."* Well - firstly, the *number* of studies on TOS (and I've written some) doesn't tell you anything about the existence of predictable patterns. It's probably a better indicator of number of investors that can code if anything. If you spend any amount of time in multiple Reddit forums you'll realize most of the investors here do not make significant money over time consistently - or at least as measured by the fact that you never see a post from them again! They start with a post of a screenshot of some well-timed trade with the title "Look Ma I Made It" using their own study for resistance levels that works - until it doesn't. They use their own custom RSI (like a stock is supposed to have some spring physics inherent in it) and make money on the breakout - until that fails. Those studies don't predict anything because any patterns that possible might form in the chaotic data of a stock price would be immediately noticed and exploited by the millions of traders in the market, and it would then cease to exist due to the very act of exploiting it. Secondly, if repeatable patterns existed, you would have trillionaires that simply traded and doubled-down their gains each (pattern) time period. I mean really - why spend 20 years blowing up rockets when you could make all that money simply typing on a keyboard (although it is cool to watch the rockets explode). Even Buffet - one of the richest men on the planet had many losses during his long career. (And his famous decade-long bet beating hedge funds should tell you something). Thirdly, many of the Redditors on these forums "prove" their hypothesis by claiming their "method" works repeatedly. And perhaps their method did. But consider this - in 2025 if you bought NVDA only on the days of a full moon you could have made a LOT of money. Since they made a lot of money it's absolutely proof, right? Keep in mind it's possible to flip a coin and get heads 12 times in a row too, not to mention that in 100 flips you may have more heads than tails even though the odds are 50/50. Consistent data patterns over the long run don't exist (for a variety or reasons besides the act of exploitation). Lastly - for those that argue there are repeatable patterns, my challenge for them is very simple - just post the criteria for how the pattern sets up and what will then follow. My favorite is "resistance levels" - like we're giving some physical attribute of mass and boundaries to a stock price. For those that believe they exist just post your technical setup (e.g. "*if the 20-day moving average is withing the 3-month average for more than 7 days it will not break out for at least 7 days*" or whatever) and the technical result predicted. It turns out when you probe them on this with actual market data that 1) whoops it doesn't always work (*"well these are just things to consider and not always true"*) and 2) you'll usually flush out that they are very guilty of the Sharpshooters Fallacy. As I demonstrated above I am happy to run someone's theories against data and I've never failed to disprove anyone's predictive strategy. One way to look at a stock price is within 3 concentric circles; the innermost being the ***company*** itself (the financial metrics, TAM/SAM/SOM opportunity, execution, etc). The next larger circle is the ***industry*** that company is in. (It didn't how profitable and growing your horse-and-buggy business was when the automobile started being produced). And both of those circles are subsumed by the last - ***macro-economics***. For example Federal interest rates directly accelerate or brake the entire stock market. Or a wildly profitable company in an industry growing quickly could be stopped with a single import tariff. All the volume profiles and RSI indicators and Ascending Flag patterns that you can tease out over an arbitrary period mean absolutely nothing when you have a subprime mortgage crisis. I'm glad your methods work for you. Cheers.

prana_fish

Yeah, Hock "not a hype man" is utter horseshit. This was the same guy who was talking up trillions of dollars worth of SAM or some shit some earnings ago. Last earnings was super weird the way he was talking. He usually can pump, but seemed muted and almost pleading. The stock sell based off of not raising over the $100B guidance is part of it, also their gross margin decline they had a weak narrative for. In any case, the pre-market pump is from a bullish JPM note this morning about next 4 generations of TPU secured and Mediatek/delay worries are overblown.

Doge_Bolok

TAM is such a regarded metric, 90% of It is based on vibes alone. What's stopping them to saying their TAM is 90% of the global economy if it's an AI company on the basis that AI is and will affect all the economic actors ? How much is their estimated SAM and SOM ?

lifetwoshort

What happens to Trulieve if SAM gets a stay? It’s not going to be pretty

lifetwoshort

If SAM wins, GTI will have a massive opportunity to deploy that cash, not in buybacks

betarhoalphadelta

I posted this in the other investing sub I saw you x-post. So might as well reproduce it here too... \------------ I took a small position as well--of course I bought in near peak (1K shares at $10.05 USD). Should have purchased a month earlier when I was first looking, but hadn't done DD yet. I've spent 2+ decades in tech, and a bit of that was in embedded computing and then a related business, dealing in the exact sort of industries and customers QNX targets. I even had a bootable QNX system at one point \[decade+ ago\] to do basic hardware testing, because a customer was using QNX. So I get the "stickiness" of getting designed in and being in effectively forever. The bit that worries me is that this ends up being what a former colleague called a "lifestyle business". They get into the companies that aren't big enough, and with difficult enough requirements, that nobody larger than BB really cares enough to chase it. They can get into those sticky businesses and sustain them. It takes a lot of work up front, but it has a payoff: they have stable, predictable, recurring revenue--and now profitability. But it makes it a LOT harder to have the explosive growth story. The first reason I invested was the idea that they can move upstack with Alloy Kore and SDP8, potentially expanding their SAM within existing customer base of automotive. If they can expand beyond just mission-critical further into the vehicle platform, per-vehicle royalties could increase by multiples while the volume play is still slow/steady growth. The second, of course, is physical AI. A large mechanical robotic device that has the weight and power to potentially kill someone is a place where an RTOS is critical. This is the one that could be a better volume play in the next 3-5 years, causing a revenue increase by multiples. Either (or both) of those paying off could cause a re-rate. I don't expect to make a meaningful return on this stock for several years, so I'm thinking long term. But OTOH unlike many speculative plays, the stability / lifestyle business aspect is what I expect will, at the very least, cause my investment not to crash.

betarhoalphadelta

I took a small position as well--of course I bought in near peak (1K shares at $10.05 USD). Should have purchased a month earlier when I was first looking, but hadn't done DD yet. I've spent 2+ decades in tech, and a bit of that was in embedded computing and then a related business, dealing in the exact sort of industries and customers QNX targets. I even had a bootable QNX system at one point \[decade+ ago\] to do basic hardware testing, because a customer was using QNX. So I get the "stickiness" of getting designed in and being in effectively forever. The bit that worries me is that this ends up being what a former colleague called a "lifestyle business". They get into the companies that aren't big enough, and with difficult enough requirements, that nobody larger than BB really cares enough to chase it. They can get into those sticky businesses and sustain them. It takes a lot of work up front, but it has a payoff: they have stable, predictable, recurring revenue--and now profitability. But it makes it a LOT harder to have the explosive growth story. The first reason I invested was the idea that they can move upstack with Alloy Kore and SDP8, potentially expanding their SAM within existing customer base of automotive. If they can expand beyond just mission-critical further into the vehicle platform, per-vehicle royalties could increase by multiples while the volume play is still slow/steady growth. The second, of course, is physical AI. A large mechanical robotic device that has the weight and power to potentially kill someone is a place where an RTOS is critical. This is the one that could be a better volume play in the next 3-5 years, causing a revenue increase by multiples. Either (or both) of those paying off could cause a re-rate. I don't expect to make a meaningful return on this stock for several years, so I'm thinking long term. But OTOH unlike many speculative plays, the stability / lifestyle business aspect is what I expect will, at the very least, cause my investment not to crash.

UsedState7381

In this related to SAM's lawsuit against Medical S3?

Ok_Recording_4440

I couldn’t agree more, drug testing has its place for cause but otherwise why are you treating me like I’m on probation or something? Is there a problem… no it’s just a random thing fuck that. Random drug testing I believe was challenged years ago, but it was determined that somehow it could be applied to DUI checkpoints and they didn’t want to get rid of those. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. Regardless, it’s a terrible reason in my opinion to show how you’re being harmed. SAM could make a similar argument.

HugeDramatic

My thesis is that cannabis consumption will increase and eventually cannabis companies and alcohol companies will start aggressive M&A. Alcohol consumption continues to trend down as prices increase. Fewer young people can afford $20 cocktails and the generation who buys 24 packs to drink on a weekend are dying off. Green Thumb previously made an offer to buy SAM. It’s just a matter of time until we see more hostile approaches to M&A once cannabis companies shift to the main trading boards. Alcohol companies wont ‘re-rate’ on their own and they need a catalyst.

Old_Barnacle_6469

Been watching these names for months and totally agree the selloff got way overdone. The inventory flush is already happening - walked through local liquor store last week and half the craft stuff that was everywhere in 2022 is just gone now SAM is interesting pick with that float situation. When these beaten down names finally turn it gets ugly fast on upside. Remember what happened to energy stocks when sentiment shifted? Same playbook could work here GLP-1 thing is overblown imo. Most people I know who tried those meds either stopped because of side effects or cost. Plus alcohol is social thing not just craving - people still gonna drink at weddings and sports games regardless of what drugs they take Your point about Gen Z is spot on too. COVID messed up their whole social development during prime drinking years. Once they get back to normal social patterns the consumption should follow

JoeyFreshagua

All the Gulf states have Apaches and use them to hunt drones, so I wonder if Iran didn't think it was American and fired a SAM. The accidental shahed collision is too unbelievable. Those are too slow and not designed to hit moving targets, plus Apache sensors would see it a mile away. Too improbable.

Defiant_Regular3738

Sam! Synthetic Adult Man Thee will be Alternative to Man, thy will be called Altman… SAM Altman And Sam said to the lord, you lease upgrade to premium you have hit your upload limit.

UsedState7381

In your shoes, I'd be crazy enough to full port into Trulieve by the official announcement, and be ready to take profits by Wednesday(not fully, but considerably). Wednesday I might be selling my MSOS shares of they pumps enough for it (that would be above $12 though and I don't think it gets there). Main reason for that is that Kim will be selling too, and then we will certainly see the stock diluting too as they have a pending offering to go through. If we consider this Uplisting as an reverse IPO of sorts(I am), we can figure out how it will go based on several past IPOs and OTC stocks uplisting. Then I'll probably take a week or two off these stocks, buy back in only after we know what the SAM lawsuit against S3 for medical MJ is looking like.

MatrixOrigin

The hearing was set not end no later than July 15 I believe, and if SAM's shenanigans get tossed as fast as they usually are, I don't see this dragging out. Trump wants it done before the midterms IMO.

Lihuman

Yeah, for some godforsaken reason SAM companies still make sense, but I am allergic to being this late to the party. MU went up 10x in the last year alone, and memory is a cyclical bitch. I can find it in me to pull the trigger without enough discount. Like, I would buy NVDIA at close to $200, others I am not too sure. What are your picks?

According-Buyer6688

Bought $OPEN Let's go SAM ALTMAN

GeoLogic23

I had mentioned that SAM had added a very random topic to their lobbying filing this quarter. They were lobbying about restrictions on [prediction markets](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/1c3d31c2-c3b1-461e-8cfb-26b887180547/print/). I wasn't sure why SAM would be in a lobbying conversation about that topic. It's not super important, but I think I know what group they might be working with, because of this addition about prediction markets. [The American Institute for Boys and Men](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/df9e8185-3103-451b-997f-32a8da60ae9b/print/) just filed their first ever lobbying registration, where they are also lobbying for prediction market stuff. But they are a prediction market lobbying group that is also lobbying for mental health stuff. * Prediction markets and online gambling, mens health, **mental health,** workforce development, and education issues. I just glanced at their webpage, and a very recent "mental health" article was talking about the [rising use of marijuana](https://aibm.org/research/marijuana-use-among-men-hits-new-highs/) in young men.

SuzyCreamcheezies

A quick look suggests that at least some state attorneys, a pharmaceutical group and SAM have all formally objected to the proposed legislation. Not so smooth sailing.

KAI5ER

here we go: **Immediately after July 15** The ALJ writes up findings and recommendations. This is not a quick process even under pressure — expect 2-4 weeks minimum. The ALJ has to summarize the entire hearing record, assess witness credibility, evaluate competing evidence, and make recommendations to the DEA Administrator. Realistically that lands on the Administrator's desk sometime in early to mid August. **The Administrator's review** Terry Cole then has to review the entire record — the ALJ findings, all 43,000 public comments, the HHS scientific recommendation, the hearing testimony — and decide whether to publish a final rule. There's no hard deadline on this step. That's actually the soft underbelly of the entire timeline. The expedited hearing has a hard July 15 deadline. The Administrator's review does not. Under political pressure from the White House — which has already demonstrated it will publicly complain about slow-walking — Cole would be expected to move quickly. But quickly here probably means 4-6 weeks not 4-6 days. So realistically a final rule gets published somewhere between late August and late September. **The 30-90 day effective date window** Once the final rule is published it needs a minimum 30-day effective date under the APA. The DEA already argued this is not a major rule under the CRA so they're claiming the 60-day Congressional Review window doesn't apply. SAM will dispute that. If DEA is right — 30 days minimum. Final rule effective late September to October. If SAM convinces a court it's a major rule — 60-day Congressional Review window kicks in on top of the 30-day APA minimum. That pushes effectiveness to November or December.

theregoesjustin

Nice try here attempting to offer information that seems objective but this is not what spacex was awarded today. If you’re out here sharing SAM.gov opportunities, you would know the subtle but distinct difference between the two. You’re actively spreading some pretty sophisticated misinformation, which is at the least, very concerning. This is essentially for operating the network that spacex is building out but not for building it directly. SpaceX is effectively the only company on earth that could have won this contract so this was, in all but name, sole sourced

GunsouBono

Calls on SAM? Could the bottom be in?

WrexyWrex

SAM ALTMAN: “WE SEE A FUTURE WHERE INTELLIGENCE IS A UTILITY, LIKE ELECTRICITY OR WATER, AND PEOPLE BUY IT FROM US ON A METER.” this is what the pope is talking about

MatrixOrigin

>“We fundamentally disagree with the court’s decision today. All parties demonstrated substantial injury that exceeds the threshold required by Article III,” SAM President and CEO Kevin Sabet said. GTFO 🤡

AverageNo130

Judge Trevor N. McFadden, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, on Friday dismissed a lawsuit led by Smart Approaches to Marijuana challenging the Trump administration’s Medicare-linked CBD program, finding that SAM, MMJ International Holdings, its subsidiaries and the other plaintiffs failed to meet the basic requirement needed to sue in federal court. MH

RevolutionaryPlum389

SAM is a POS. Fuck all of them

Handsome_Chewbacca

Fuck SAM. I hope this defeat burns a hole in their souls.

UsedState7381

SAM has lost their lawsuit against the CBD reimbursement program 👍👍 https://x.com/i/status/2057966513672339742 >"Each claims an injury too abstract or too remote to open the courtroom doors." Top kek 😂😂😂

TheSchlapper

Meta SAM 3D is one of the most impressive applied ai tools I’ve seen this far

KAI5ER

SAM is in a paradox where continued cannabis growth can reinforce its argument that marijuana is an escalating societal threat. The more legalization and use expand, the easier it becomes to justify more funding, urgency, and advocacy to fight it. **The grift can go on as long as they can find sponsors.**

GeoLogic23

SAM filed their most recent lobbying disclosure. They've been lobbying for what you would expect. Opposing SAFE, anti-CCP marijuana farms, blocking rescheduling, etc.. Only one thing has been added this quarter, which is not something that is in their field at all. Here is last Q vs this Q, from the agricultural issues section. * Advocating for a prohibition on hemp-derived intoxicants. * Advocating for a prohibition on hemp-derived intoxicants and [advocating for restrictions on prediction markets](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/1c3d31c2-c3b1-461e-8cfb-26b887180547/print/). I don't follow gambling much. Is there anything other than the fact that there are bets on when rescheduling would happen that could explain this? Such an odd thing for a marijuana focused activist to care about. Also I decided to look more at SAM's lobbying. Besides their internal lobbying, SAM only uses 1 outside lobbyist called Bridge Street. Bridge Street only has had 15 total clients since 2015. One of those 15 clients was 21st Century Fox from 2015-2019. Bridge Street only has 3 current clients besides SAM, one of which is Iggy Ventures. The other 2 are small coalitions. Iggy Ventures was founded in 2017 by Rick Lane. He came from 15 years working as a senior VP of government relations for 21st Century Fox. So yea probably not a real revelation, but SAM's recent lobbying has a few connections to Rupert Murdoch and Fox News type people.

bboyrawn

Bro take out broadcom and throw in something like LITE (lumentum) Or LLY And you can get the acronym SAM ALTMAN

UsedState7381

The plant will be fully rescheduled, it's been generally agreed on Twitter that the hearings for the full plant are just a formality to avoid more legal issues. But I have a much higher concern that SAM might be able to pull a stay out of their own asses somehow.

perceptive_AI

>ELON MUSK LOSES CASE AGAINST SAM ALTMAN OVER OPENAI FUTURE Regarded

cfaawlday

$SAM is such a dog. No one drink beer anymore?

KAI5ER

This is what SAM should campaigning with

rsilv18

Anyone else been reporting the SAM advertisements on twitter? 🤣

Own_Fold_5212

I think we and all relevant media should stop talking about SAM haha Just gives them extra attention they don’t deserve The admin, public, Democratic Party, and enough GOP members want it to happen there’s really not material resistance There’s just way too evidence and admin / agency support to get it done - even things that are blatantly wrong like tariffs took ages to impact

AverageNo130

SAM is not successful at anything. Losers.

UsedState7381

Trump and the White House wants and supports rescheduling the entire plant to schedule 3. https://x.com/i/status/2047440089224290359 The bifurcation the DOJ made was because the treaty provision legal route they took only covers medical applications of the plant, but they want the entire plant rescheduled. The only remaining question now is if SAM will be successful in staying the whole process.

skyplt29

It seems as though this sector always has some carrot on the end of a stick that turns into nothing more than a sell the news event. I am surprised there is not more discussion on this subreddit about the upcoming rec S3 hearings in July.  On the one hand, I have a hard time believing Republicans (or SAM) will let this through. Trump has already made it clear he is not in favor of rec. On the other hand, the very definition of S1 is "drugs with no currently accepted medical use".  It would seem the recent med S3 ruling supports S3 overall. S3 is defined as "drugs with a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence". I believe SAM will argue high potential for dependence  But I find it interesting the DEA definitions do not delineate between  medical and recreational. As well, there has been no discussion about whether hemp derived cannabis will be banned or better regulated come November. My guess is better regulated. A lot of farmers switched to growing hemp  BTW, it strikes me as though there are only about a dozen or so regular contributors to this subreddit left.  Personally I am not as engaged (or heavily invested) as I used to be. For me it's been over 8 years of mostly rug pulls. Can this sector ever move beyond success being "just around the corner?"  🚀 

CatGuano

Thanks to corporations being people and money being free speech, we don't know who is funding SAM.

quiltball

You can check my comment history man, I've legitimately bullposted cannabis stocks for years and have never posted about SAM. Just wanted to highlight I thought was important information. Clearly the overall market has shifted positive and I think we're now in an uptrend and this is the last overhang/potential negative catalyst that I'm tracking.

quiltball

My biggest concern at this point is SAM hiring Bill Barr's firm and this most recent action to try and block rescheduling. I'm assuming Barr has deep knowledge of how both the DOJ and Trump operate from his time in public service, and far reaching connections across the political sphere. Mainly holding Trulieve and I'm not selling because of it, but it's definitely something to watch.

mcorliss3456

SAM, a Political Action Committee, has no legal standing. They will not be harmed by reclassification in any possible way whatsoever, unless you are counting milking the anti-legalization gravy train for all they can. Unfortunately, those POS will have to get actual real jobs instead of shilling for big pharma, big alcohol cos, and the regressive extreme Christian Right.

MatrixOrigin

SAM can eat a bag of dicks.

Flyinbro

SAM is a joke, never once won a lawsuit, all they do is delay everything, ignore the noise.

Bl1nk9

I wonder if SAM has been getting in on the insider trading game