Reddit Posts
Signature Bank (SBNY) = Massive Potential
Can someone explain why I can't buy more SBNY or sell the shares I have?
Fed hikes rates. Total disregard for regional banks?
Possible squeeze/bounce play in FRCB. Extremely volatile today but room to make some cash tomorrow or Friday
WhiteHorse Finance says some portfolio companies have exposure to SVB, SBNY (NASDAQ:WHF)
Why didn't anyone on Wall Street predict this banking crisis?
Tiny First Republic Bank, Uncle Yellen Got Your Backstop
New York Community Bancorp pursuing acquisition of Signature Bank - report (NASDAQ:SBNY)
MEGATHREAD: CS, SBNY, SVB, SI and other bank failure option discussions
Banks At Risk Of Failure Due To HTM Losses & High Amount Of Uninsured Deposits (Similar To SVB/SBNY)
Banks At Risk Of Failure Due To HTM Losses & High Amount Of Uninsured Deposits (Similar To SVB/SBNY)
FDIC willing to talk loss-sharing to smooth sale of SVB, Signature Bank (NASDAQ:SBNY)
Full List Of Banks At Risk Of Failure Based On Deposit Base And HTM Losses (Which Killed SVB & SBNY)
Full List Of Banks At Risk Of Failure Based On Deposit Base And HTM Losses (Which Killed SVB & SBNY)
DO NOT hold near-expiry Puts on any stock that might collapse. Brokers are refusing to honor Puts on halted bank stocks…YOU WILL LOSE 100%
Charles Schwab calls itself a ‘safe port in a storm’ as it took in billions in new assets the past week
PSA.... If SBNY and SIVB remain halted, those options are not subject to automatic exercise
US CFTC to give pass over certain swap reporting failures tied to SVB, Signature Bank contracts
Investor Activism Works | $SVB & $SBNY Put Options Case💵
11thestate.com | Regulators asked banks interested in acquiring $SVB and $SBNY to submit bids by March 17. Any buyer of SBNY must agree to give up all the crypto budiness at the bank.
FRC, WAL, KEY rebound; BG higher on replacing SBNY in S&P 500; NTCO, GTLB, BZFD slide
Where is a good place I can consult a licensed stock broker about options questions?
FEDs are not bailing out banks, they are bailing out the bond market.
Hard Hit By Bank Crisis, These Fintech Stocks Try To Claw Back
$HOOD Users & Investors are Uniting to Fight Losses🥊🥊🥊
NEWS: 3iQ Announces Firm Has No Exposure to Closed US Banks
MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital Lead Bounce for Crypto-Related Stocks
Signature Bank taken over by New York Department of Financial Services (NASDAQ:SBNY)
While SBNY and SIVB put options are halted, you can still exercise them
While SBNY and SIVB put options are halted, you can still exercise them
What happens to $SIVB and $SBNY puts if trading remains halted until Friday?
It’s not a Bailout you apes
Regulators seize Signature Bank in third-largest US Bank faulure
Signature Bank becomes the second regional bank to failure in two days as regulators seek to restore calm to the banking world before markets open.
Signature Bank New York Fails ($110bn) - Fed will cover all uninsured deposits
Regulators seized New York regional bank Signature Bank (SBNY) before markets open Monday.
[Signature Bank] Cramer blessing SBNY in April 2022, saying SBNY is a buy
Regulators close New York’s Signature Bank (SBNY), citing systemic risk
Sam Bankman-Fried pictured with two Senior VPs of $SBNY.
Signature Bank (SBNY) First Republic Bank (FRC) Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) PacWest Bancorp (PACW) Plunge Amid Wider Bank-Stock Selloff
What bank is next, $SBNY, $FRC, $ZION or $TFC?
Signature Bank (SBNY), Silvergate (SI), FTX, and TrueUSD: A Tale of Questionable Judgement
Signature Bank, FTX, and TrueUSD: A Tale of Questionable Judgement (SBNY, Silvergate, Binance, and a trillion dollars in murky transfers)
Mentions
$8.99 is kinda high but I am in this with you and recommending you don’t give up hope. It’s only $.90 but it was recently $.15 so the fact that it has bounced back that much after already being bankrupt means someone out there wants in. I own this and SBNY, I have been trading daily for 8 years and have a 74% win/loss ratio. We could both fail, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned is the best opportunities are often times in once good companies that have been beaten down.
I traded SBNY out. Same thing. Good times brother 
Gotta be careful with brokerage like Robinhood though. They did honor that with SBNY, but it was new to them.
You bought SI and SBNY too off that logic?
SBNY, if you can Expert Market. 1 year ago 0.12, today 2.48. 20x !
SBNY is still listed because it is in FDIC recievership. This is not bankruptcy. It is a government regulated reorg. The assets are being liquidated, and until the shareholder claims and depositors are paid out, nothing will come of your shares. The bulk of their deposits, commercial real estate, IP, and other assets are already sold to other banks. It is being 'wound-down'. Hang in there. Are you still holding? The timeline to unwind this completely could be up to 5 years, but the payout could be immense.
lol, my sweet summer child. [i posted this last year](https://old.reddit.com/r/options/comments/11mi2nf/signature_bank_sbny_big_put_payday/) before SBNY eventually collapsed and went to 0 SEC doesn't do shit.
SBNY is NOT bankrupt. They were incorrectly put into government receivership.
Great information and well done. Hopefully some of the so called “experts” on Reddit will read this. Financial literacy is hard to come by nowadays. Most don’t know the benefits of maxing out retirement accounts or HSA advantages, not to mention the tax benefits. I’m fortunate enough to have an employer that is paying for a graduate degree in accounting with a few semesters left. Having no financial background, learning stocks and how to read financial statements/analyze companies was my sole motivator for going back to school. Much like yourself, I find the best method is to self teach with trial and (unfortunately) error. From my mistakes, I won’t touch bank stocks as the opportunity cost of reading up on 10-Ks is just not worth it IMO. Without knowing what’s under the hood as far as loans, deposits etc. go, I wouldn’t sleep well if the bank’s not named JPM. Case in point, SBNY and SVB were 2 of the best performing stocks in 2021. Next is commodities. Very difficult to predict future prices, supply/demand, regulatory, and cycles without working in these industries. Many stocks also trade in tandem with the price of the commodity. Your post was a refreshing read amongst the sea of junk on here. Any stocks your bullish on atm or building long-term positions in?
>Jobs report has been revised down for 10 months straight, skipping December 2023. Even the latest job report of 175k was below expected. Many being part time jobs We come from a period with a record tight labour market and it has become clear companies were overhiring. As a result, these layoffs have had a less than expected income on earnings and, in fact, improved earnings margins on several large companies. > Yield curve 2yr/10yr has been inverted for 673 days, counting today. > Yield curve 3month/10yr has been inverted for 561 days, counting today. Both of these are simply telling you the market expects the fed funds rate to go down in the future. Fed funds rate mainly impacts the short end of the curve. Noone wants to lend at 5% for 10 years if they expect rates to drop in a year at most. Companies and the government have been mainly issuing short term paper for this exact reason. > Reverse repo has been falling but is at 475$ Billion - cushion to the system. Lmao I remember reverse repo going up to record highs was bearish. Now its going down, believe it or not, also bearish > Banks are underwater from low yield Treasuries and Commercial Real Estate. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/why-hundreds-of-us-banks-may-be-at-risk-of-failure.html Banks are only at risk if they are forced to take losses due to a bank run. The government intervention in SIVB and SBNY has shown the governments dedication to not letting banks fail and shown constumers that the government is willing to guarantee their funds. This is definitely not an ideal status quo, but you can be sure the problem is being mitigated behind the scenes. > Bullshit growth rate of GDP at 1.6% - probably be revised down. This is the **real** GDP growth rate. That means its already been adjusted for inflation which you go on to complain is so high in your next point. For the nominal growth rate you need to add back the inflation rate. Here's a kicker: stock prices and company earnings are also measured in nominal terms. All else remaining equal (i.e., inflation not causing a massive slowdown in spending), high inflation > higher sales prices > higher nominal company earnings > higher stock prices. > Fed has already over tightened but can't cut b/c of the inflation rate, and the inflation rate is not going to come down anytime soon. 1.6$ Trillion in Federal Deficit this year Source needed that the inflation rate is not coming down anytime soon. It is true that the government spending is directly contradicting fed policy tho, but it also reduces the impact of the fed tightening. > 7.6$ Trillion of Debt is maturing this year, U.S Treasury doesn't have that kind of money lying around so they are going to sell treasuries to pay off the principal of the ones that are maturing. Just like when a broke consumer pays one credit card off with another. The problem being the debt that is maturing was locked in at 1-1.5% but now it has to be given at 4-5% which adds to the cost to service all that debt. Thats why they are issuing nearly exclusively short term maturities > Oracle of Omaha is holding on to the biggest stock pile of cash/cash equivalents ever - 188$ Billion Dollars He has been stockpiling for years because he's very vocal about struggling to find businesses that are large enough to make an impact for berkshire.
GME. 0 debt over 1 billion dollars cash on hand the most loyal group of stock holders in the Market who are Directly Registering Shares (DRS) in their personal names so that market makers can't naked short the stock. (An illegal practice) A CEO and chairman of the board who is working for free but is the largest Shareholder of GME). And only has team of Execs who are willing to buy Stock with their own personal money. HYMC. It's a mining company sitting on the US's largest silver mine in Nevada. They also are on a gold mine. You want a lottery tick pick? SBNY signature bank. Is around 3$ currently up from fractions of a penny. Institutions never sold their shares and still are holding shares at an average price of over $100 they never sold because they know it will rebound. Follow smart money on this pick.
More than a week, but amazing. Signature Bank NY (SBNY) was around all-time low of **$.0003** in mid-November 2023. It started going up in mid-December, then It went to $2.60 by mid-Jan and hit $3.60 last week. Increased by 866,566.67% by mid-November and 1,199,900% last week. No, I didn't get in on that part of it. I did sell what I had bought early last year on the upswing and got 5x back so I feel good. If I would have put $1K in at the bottom I would have gotten $11,198,000 PROFIT. (don't know if it would have been possible to sell that many shares (3,333,333) at the top though). If it weren't for the brokerage that sucked up TDAmeritrade, I would have gotten some at around $.002 - another $1K worth to drastically lower my avg cost. At that spot, I would have had a tidy $1.5M profit just by selling at $3.00, not counting the other shares I bought before. The brokerage wouldn't facilitate a trade, even though I bought the shares I had through them a few months earlier. Since I bought them SBNY had fallen behind on SEC reporting and I think that was their reasoning. Maybe also going from $350.00 to under a penny.... I also asked here for advice on where to buy some but nobody helped. By the time I found one that will let me buy and sell SBNY, it was too late to buy more anywhere near the bottom. I hope someone here got in on it . . . but if anyone did they are probably not here anymore... :)
More than a week, but amazing. Signature Bank NY (SBNY) was around all-time low of **$.0003** in mid-November 2023. It started going up in mid-December, then It went to $2.60 by mid-Jan and hit $3.60 last week. Increased by 866,566.67% by mid-November and 1,199,900% last week. No, I didn't get in on that part of it. I did sell what I had bought early last year on the upswing and got 5x back so I feel good. If I would have put $1K in at the bottom I would have gotten $11,198,000 PROFIT. (don't know if it would have been possible to sell that many shares (3,333,333) at the top though). If it weren't for the brokerage that sucked up TDAmeritrade, I would have gotten some at around $.002 - another $1K worth to drastically lower my avg cost. At that spot, I would have been a tidy $1,5M profit just by selling at $3.00 even, not counting the other shares I bought before. The brokerage wouldn't facilitate a trade, even though I bought the shares I had through them a few months earlier. Since I bought them SBNY had fallen behind on SEC reporting and I think that was their reasoning. Maybe also going from $350.00 to under a penny.... I also asked here for advice on where to buy some but nobody helped. By the time I found one that will let me buy and sell SBNY, it was too late to buy more anywhere near the bottom. I hope someone here got in on it . . . but if anyone did they are probably not here anymore... :)
SBNY, FRC, and SIVB all in the top right quadrant. PACW, which was sold to BANC last year, pretty much right at the centre. NYCB, down 70% ytd is bottom left. This graph is *almost* worthless. If you actually had >$250,000 in any of the banks in the top right (as if), you might want to spread that around some more. Beyond that, under $700bn in assets, banks don't have to mark a lot of their assets to market. Those unrealized losses weigh on earnings potential, but pose exactly zero risk to their solvency.
SBNY, UPST, and MRNA. Lost so much that it’s not even worth selling lol
Check out out SBNY ( signature bank) to see this in action. There will be no dividend for common stock share holders but the bulls truly believe they will get one. From .003 to 2 bucks. Watch it tank in march after the supposed dividend due date.
Yeah I did that with signature bank. Lost a lot. Banks can fail. (or in the case of SBNY not really fail, but be given to NYCB for a huge discount, and SBNY shareholders get nothing)
This is the one that got the SBNY handout too. Drama!
Sbny is making a comeback, tho! https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SBNY/opinion?clientlang=2
Thought this was $SBNY for a second
**SBNY** is still on sale for those in Canada (and I think a couple other countries) who can buy it - catalysts on the horizon: [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-signature-bank-cre-loan-201030713.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-signature-bank-cre-loan-201030713.html)
SBNY target: $10 SBNYL target (preferred - will receive priority but are capped at $25): $15 Both targets are mid-February. Obviously not without risk, but the upside potential is still off the charts and will be known by mid-March.
For those able to buy, **SBNY** dipped the past couple days - won't last long IMO. As a reminder, here's the why behind it: [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-signature-bank-cre-loan-201030713.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-signature-bank-cre-loan-201030713.html)
Look at SBNY. Went to nothing, moved to OtC so retail could only sell, then they teased the price up after Christmas into the new year with the hopes that there will be money left over from the bankruptcy for the common stockholders.
$SBNY now at $2.50. Exciting times!
**SBNY** 
On Tuesday, the last time there was a real sell $SBNY moved down $1.80 to .75 cents. Have you exited yet?
Thanks for the CNBC interview. 100% the preferred would be capped at $25. They would only be compensated after any bond holders get paid as well. I think I read somewhere there are $500-600M in outstanding bonds for SBNY. The CNBC piece does a good job at showing the loans sales, but it is difficult to know what it happening. We can see that the FDIC is holding on to a 80%+ of the the loans, and they are selling a small part at a big discount. The question remains is what is the liability that the FDIC has that is offsetting the remaining value of the loans they hold. I don't believe that these loans are free and clear from any underlying liability (i.e., the idea that the $33B loan portfolio is free and clear seems unlikely). I presume that the FDIC is now planning to simply hold the 80%+ stake they have and take the income from those loans and use it pay down any liabilities and then once those are paid off, start paying bond holders, preferreds, and common stock if possible. But if they are going to let those loans simply mature and payoff, then it is unclear what the timeline would be for the dividends to shareholders. Maybe over the next 3-10 years (?) since these commercial/MF loans tend to be shorter length than residential mortgages. It is much easier to understand the situation when the FDIC simply sells the loans for cash, although in this situation that may have been the worst thing for value maximization... hence holding them. But it makes understanding the potential net value of the FDIC Bridge Bank difficult to figure out... beyond what the failed bank balance sheet says
A couple things I can speak to here: 1. In regards to preferred vs. common shares, the expectation (from what I've read on other forums) is that preferred shares will be capped at $25/share, but would receive priority over commons once those final figures are reached. Commons would not be capped, but obviously come with a bit more risk as they're last in the chain of priority. 2. The FDIC owes an update on this matter any day now, as those figures you're citing from September aren't factoring in any of the billions they have since received in sales from various parts of SBNY. Those sales, paired with the former head of CRE's articles/media appearances ([he was just on CNBC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvCdaRuQJHs)), are what is fuelling this upward momentum. It's just impossible to think of any scenario where shareholders walk away with nothing here knowing the billions sitting in receivership even after all liabilities are considered.
Interesting, and I agreed back when it closed that it seemed overly aggressive from the gov't. I had some preferred shares at the time. I guess one question is how do you square what was said in the yahoo article with the FDIC failed bank balance sheet information? As of Sept 30, the net worth of the bridge bank they set up is about $450M. [https://receivership.fdic.gov/drripbal/bank/10541](https://receivership.fdic.gov/drripbal/bank/10541) They apparently still owed a lot of deposit claims (I guess to NY Community Bank that assumed SBNY deposits). At the time, I am sure that SBNY did not have the cash to pay NYBC all of that deposit cash, so presumably that is what the nearly $40B in deposit claims means. What I am unsure of is what is included in that "Administrative Liabilities" of $22B. It is also possible that the value of the assets has gone up as interest rates came down a bit in Q4. It's difficult to understand the potential payout to preferred or common stock with the way the FDIC has structured the loan "sales" and understanding what value is accrued by the shareholders of SBNY. I guess my concern is that it is very opaque as to the actual value of whatever the FDIC is holding and what they real liabilities are in this case. Can anyone help to explain the situation or have any data sources that indicate the potential net value of the FDIC bridge bank? I suppose we may get a year-end update of the balance sheet from the FDIC, but I am not sure when that would typically happen.
what's the deal with this stock? several weeks back i spotted this, and it looked 'semi-delisted', but with an insane book value. intriguing. earnings per share over $20... book value/share $128+ [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBNY/key-statistics?p=SBNY](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBNY/key-statistics?p=SBNY) priced at about 1.60/share right now... yeah looks like buy orders are blocked... merill could be a diamond in the rough for people holding, or who can still buy... you don't see 'whacked out' earnings and book values like that every day...
Where can you even buy SBNY?
SBNY is up 3,101.80% this past month. How much higher do you think it can go?
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https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SBNY
GGE and WLDS for me tomorrow, watching SBNY
I said it a week ago and I'll say it again... **SBNY** and only **SBNY**. **SBNYL** is even better, those are the preferred shares and they've barely climbed the past week in comparison. [https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/18niokm/comment/kecux1q/?utm\_source=reddit&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/18niokm/comment/kecux1q/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Do you know what is happening with SBNY?
Do you know what is happening with SBNY?
Did you try to sell your shares? They may not allow opening transactions (buying more shares), but should allow closing transactions (selling the shares you have). ​ >why is SBNY still listed It's very common when a company goes bankrupt for the shares to move to trade on OTC for very low prices. For one thing anyone who was short the stock may want the shares to buy to cover. And people who were long the stock may be looking to sell to be able to realize the tax loss. Because it's not a realized loss while the shares are still sitting in your account.
SBNY has been delisted from major exchanges, because it is under the FDIC's receivership. Meaning, that major exchanges like the NASDAQ and NYSE will not allow one to buy/sell shares in SBNY. However, the equity still exists until a bankruptcy court gets rid of them. Like all things that exist it has a value, however, the equity no longer trades on major exchanges and only trades in over-the-counter markets. These markets need higher allowance for you to buy/sell in them so you are basically stuck with these shares unless you can get Fidelity to trade them on the OTCM.
I wont disagree with your point but that's based on if MS stays for market cap at 140 bn for next 10 years? Im putting this on my phone so i dont get the data but im highly doubtful MS stays there. In fact quick google search says 40 bns and it grows to 140 bn like you quoted So... It grows 4 times in 15 yearish timeline for MS as a reasonable growth for MS and let's assume the same speed for MS? It's going to be 600 bns Not saying SOFI will be 600 bns (if so that's 60 baggers) but saying 30-40 baggers is not entirely impossible if it continues to executes. 30% of market cap of MS will be roughly 30 baggers/ Even 10% of market cap will be roughly 6-10 baggers Looking at SVB and SBNY, they also did 30-40 baggers from bottom to top before bankruptcy... So why not? I agree that more than 30 baggers too much expectations but no one knows how it will turn out meaning it can even result in negative return. Will have to see how it will turn out
I mean I bought 100 shares of SBNY at 20 cents a share and it’s popping up 90 cents this week. Here I just wanted to own shares of a failed bank for fun and I’m up 450% 😂
**SBNY** is going to set me up for an early retirement at this rate. Here's why it's been rocketing the past week: [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-signature-bank-cre-loan-201030713.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-signature-bank-cre-loan-201030713.html)
SBNY. Had 18000@$0.195, sold it at 0.115, hit $0.505 today, who know how much I will end up missing out on. Looks like I’m getting a kick to the nuts again for Christmas
I actually didn't sell a lot of my losers... just bag holding a bunch at this point. I'm currently in school for my masters, so I have no taxable income. I also bought an electric car this year, so I will be reporting some of these gains for some of the 7,500 EV tax credit! I also have some losses that were inevitable like losing 3k from SBNY when it was dissolved.
Almost two years ago in January 2022, I sold all of my stake in CVX. Back then I actually had around 60k in my account. Strangely enough, there was a kind of unfortunate perfect storm. Because I put about 20k into meta... Meta recorded one of the worst single day drops, then Ukraine got invaded so I missed out on CVX rising. Then there were the bank defaults, in which I also had about 3k in SBNY. I was being absolutely double penetrated. I bought at peaks for all these big techs which also got rekt in the year. My entire portfolio was heavily tech, and worse was that I was using margin. I was 1.5k from being margin called, and I just DCA'd as best as I could with every paycheck. I bought amazon when it was 105$ and sold at 143$. I also bought more meta on its way up. I also put in 10k into Microsoft. After a year of being under, I sold enough to where I wasn't using margin. If I learned anything from this it was: never use margin. I also sold all of my big tech holdings nearly at perfect timing (before the minor in the past month), bought amazon back at 125, and NVDA at $178.
I bought a single share of SBNY one day, they get a favorable rating from someone (Well Fargo, maybe?) the next day, then two days later it's all over.
Haha me too. I've lost all of an investment on a few occasions. Latest being SBNY. But that's the risk of deep value gambling I guess. Also lost playing inverse volatility one time. Still 90%+ of mine is in a lazy etf portfolio and not gambled.
*This is the reason that in the Big Short, the heroes choose to sell their positions rather than wait for the insurance payoff, because they're worried the insurers will go bankrupt before they cash in.* ​ Exactly like anyone that held SBNY or SVB recently at the time they were taken over. Those puts buyers had some trouble getting payouts as did short sellers, who needs to return the security, but couldn't buy them back because they weren't available to trade. (As I recall)
$FRCB & SBNY banking sector bought each 10 k and both -99%
Percentage wise SBNY, in terms of dollar amount Pfizer
So far in my 3y gambling career ive managed to hit big on 2 runs, once during the bank runs with SBNY for 13k and recently with TSLA 10k and at no time I ever felt like I needed time to step away from the casino. Not even once. Maybe 20k would do it ?
Unless the merger falls apart, and then due to unknown horrors hidden on the balance sheet PACW is deemed insolvent, and the stock goes to 0.50 a-la SIVB, SBNY, etc.
I quoted some parts of your post that really stood out to me: >Ive been trying to do some backtests and research recently into market timing, trend following, active trading, options trading, all things of that nature. >The SPY has terrible drawdowns and risk-adjusted returns. >Am I thinking about this incorrectly? The thing about active trading, options trading, market timing, trend following, etc., is it's not GUARENTEED to beat buy & hold. I'm currently making 2% per week trading options in a portfolio margin account, up 60% YTD. However, I got fucking lucky avoiding SIVB, SBNY, and NVDA, all 3 I've sold puts and calls on in the past. Any one of those could have done me in for 30%+, possibly wiped out my account. It also sounds impressive I got this trading skill, but I've traded options since 2016 actively and pretty much broke even, definitely underperformed buy & hold, until I picked up some right skills and significant edges doing that. 6 years before I had my breakthrough in active trading. Buy and hold is nice as it's INCREDIBLY hard for most funds to beat SPY or VTI. Think about it, the index is the "average" returns but on a fund by fund basis, its usually in the upper 70s to 90% every year. So think about how many people are famous for beating the market over a decade+ - Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, George Soros, etc. It's a pretty small list. If I named everyone I know of great traders who publicly earned up to 50 million I'd say it's 200-300+ people, about maybe the same numbers/% of people as being a pro NBA or football player, or a pro poker player. Then I might piss off the /r/investing crowd here, but even Warren Buffet is [no longer out performing SPY](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2010&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=BRK.B&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=100) He has a 0.76 sharpe ratio and spy has 0.85 in this back test. It's doable, it takes a long time and skill and study, however, I want to be realistic - how likely do YOU have the time, capital, willingness, etc., to learn and put in the effort? It took me 6 years and only 1 year so far of my "breakout" - it could just very well be luck. So the other thing you have to think about is your financial GOALS. Buying 90%+ of SPY/VTI is a great way to historically meet your financial goals. There's obviously no guarantees with investing/etc, but it's the best we got if you want to retire. Even with my active trading - of my 750k NW I only trade with a 250k portfolio margin account. I even invest the rest passively myself - as I don't trust myself enough that I'd reach my financial goals if I was "all-in" invested, despite my incredible return rate. If I keep up my successful return rate I'll have a shit ton of upside in a few years or the next decade! You can reach financial independence in roughly [15-17 years investing in SPY with a 50% savings rate](https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/) that's how powerful buy & hold is. It's about your willingness and ability to take risk. Do you want a sure thing? Do you want the risk of under-performance, severe drawdowns, or losing all your capital, or not just losing 100% your capital but owing your broker? Do you NEED to take the active risk to reach your goals? I don't want to discourage you at all away from active investing - after all there is a shit ton of huge and successful active investors out there, I do want to be realistic - its a huge uphill journey. It's like being a professional poker player, basketball player, football player, astronaut, etc., etc., etc. I hope my insights and experience help you!
Is anyone buying SBNY.
Probably more likely to be right than those that have suggested that the Fed has found religion and is going to lay off and let things be as they should be, considering that we quietly repeated what we did in 2019 with the repo accident, just in a different fashion with the SIVB/SBNY failures (it was a similar-ish problem based off what I saw on one chart, reserves had fallen too low for regional banks and were getting close for the big banks). IDK if it’ll be 16 trillion though. Yeah, the spike in the Fed balance sheet from those failures has been fully reversed, but at least recently (it might have changed, I don’t follow it too closely), the point bank reserves were at fully supported the level the S&P was sitting at if you compare back to early last year/2021.
Sold my SBNY profits for RAKR. Nice 10 bagger at least it should be
Off-topic, aside from the fact that you're all degenerate gamblers: why are (bankrupt) SBNY (2x in 24 hours) and FRCB (5x in 2 weeks) on a tear? Who would be buying these and why? I can't find any stories on what's driving this. Any ideas? Seems like shorting a bankrupt company should be a no brainer ... is this people covering positions?
Neither the FDIC’s guarantee of all deposits nor the Fed’s liquidity facility for banks were borne by tax payer funds, and neither of those things are controlled by Yellen either. Speaking of taxes, majority of Americans are most definitely not in the 37% tax bracket, and those who are don’t literally give 37% of their income to the IRS either, because that’s not how progressive taxation works. The actual dollars you paid in taxes divided by your adjusted gross income, called your effective tax rate, is usually much lower than your bracket. More importantly, the liquidity available to banks via the Fed’s emergency lending means it doesn’t matter how bad the balance sheet is right now due to unrealized losses on held to maturity bonds. And guess what…banks have been using this option less and less since it was initially made available post SIVB/SBNY. CRE could be concerning, and certainly make for another leg down. Real Estate loans are secured by the collateral of the property itself, so it’s not as if these impacted banks will walk away empty handed. So, since there’s some dissonance between how you think this all works vs reality, you may want to rethink your short thesis. There’s ZERO chance that the entire regional banking industry is going to zero based upon your reasoning.
Ooof. Yeah. First and importantly, it is a Chinese company. BON is one of two stocks that appear on this screen: Market cap less than 10 mil. Share price less than $1. Revenue more than 20 million. Net income more than 5 million. PE ratio less than 2. Ironically the other stock that shows up is SBNY, which I find hilarious. Digging into BON you'll notice it has some poor cashflow figures, buy rather than attributed to poor management they just opened factory # 3 this year, which is a good explained on their outflow. I assume it's the cashflow figures that have people worried, but I think building a factory is a decent reason for an outflow.
My BON yolo is up 10%. Looking for 3x gains on it before I sell though. I'm trading up 112% YTD currently. BON is the only microcap under 10m, $1sp with sales exceeding 20m and net income exceeding 5m. It's P/E is under 2. The only stock that appears alongside it in the screener is SBNY, ironically. On paper BON would sell out to an acquisition for about 30m on the conservative side, so right there is 3.5x from my entry point.
Fuck me. - lost entire position in $SBNY - negative $40k owed to fidelity - driving Lyft - lost on $NVDA again
I didn’t get paid no lol but they def twisted my story. I said I wanted to short banks to zero when I was in SBNY and it did go to zero. But I specially told the journalist that I said “this is bottom” at the exact bottom and i sold pacw puts and printed on that. I even showed her the sold puts lol but whatever, they want to make us look responsible for the massive drop. I’m just a fish swimming with the whales man
Imgur isn't working but I'm trying ti show you a graph that shows core deposits as a % of assets is higher, significantly, than it has been in the banking system in the past decade. Regarding your exchange with the other guy, it isn't necessarily stressing the banking system. There were 2 banks that saw huge problems. SIVB lost 84% of their deposits in 2 days. Signature saw massive outflows over the course of a year relating to their bet on banking all the digital wallet, NFT, and crypto companies. Deposits sank while that market crashed. First Republic failed as contagion mostly, but also because they had an absolutely terrible asset-liability mismatch from their jumbo lending program for Google and Facebook employees. That is to say, those 3 banks were unique, in different ways from one another. But the one major similarity is absolutely massive deposit growth (200-300%) from 2020 to 2022. SIVB and FRC made similarly bad investments while SBNY just saw more than the 25-28% deposit runoff they had budgeted for from Q122 to Q123. Overall the banking system was prepared for the 3% deposit loss they saw in Q1. Banks are also not tightening standards (that SLOOS report showed like 0.3% of banks have tightened). Fewer borrowers are meeting their standards since debt is more expensive and fewer projects are expected to produce sufficient cash flow to service it. This is exactly the intention of the Fed raising rates. The point was to slow the economy. They still want to lend, but are finding fewer willing & capable borrowers.
Judging by the hearing on SIVB and SBNY the other day, he is probably telling the truth. Sounds like FDIC just decides to swoop in if they feel like it, regardless of actual liquidity or what management has to say.
I feel like the FED/FDIC wanted to take down Crypto related banks like SI and SBNY etc., but want to support the regionals that have made some missteps with the interest up cycle. I can see the FED and FDIC making some “confidence” building statements regarding these banks and possibly other moves. PACW will ultimately need to make the shorts pay or lose interest to move forward in the near term.
For me it’s Biontech, Pfizer, SBNY.
Curious what your thoughts on SBNY making a comeback are I was thinking about creating an otc account to purchase some
Well imagine if you didn’t wait and bought into SVB, SI, SBNY, FRC, CSGN.
Fractional banking still doesn’t mean it’s a smart idea to loan out more money than what you have on deposit (like in the case of FRC) and most sound banks don’t do that for obvious reasons. Deposits were up at FRC, Signature, Silicon Valley? They are up at some banks, like BOA, JPM etc. I know that FRC, SBNY, CMA, SIVB suffered from a high amount of uninsured deposits, and high amounts of unrealized losses. https://imgur.com/a/uBtShmR WAL has 7M shares shorted out of 110M, PACW has 20M out of 120M shorted. Please tell me how this is all because of the shorts?
The Silvergate (crypto banks) collapse/FTX blowup led to other "smart money" people to look at their banks which then triggered the SVB balance sheet concerns in early March and the floodgates opened from there. I think SVB had so much money withdrawn in one day (over $40B) that it was the equivalent to every American taking something like $125 out of that bank. SBNY had 2nd highest uninsured deposits after SVB + the crypto angle as well. FRC was classic bank run collateral to the above. Now waiting to see what happens from here.
You don't want to exercise your put options until right before they expire. Just make sure you have a margin account and equity to exercise the options. If you exercise early, you may have to pay short interest (interest to borrow the stock to short). In addition, you may get bought in if the stock cannot be borrowed. If you own the puts in an account that cannot have margin (i.e., a cash account or an IRA account), then you may want to punt the position. Because these accounts cannot be short stock, Fidelity (and other brokers) will probably lapse the options (i.e., send instructions not to exercise the puts). Yes, that would not be great, but those are the 'rules'. I am sure those 'rules' helped the professionals when SBNY and SIVB were shut down (not trading) for 2 weeks or so. One more point to be aware. FRC traded on the NYSE. That was only shut down (not trading) for 2 days. SBNY and SIVB were traded on the NASDAQ. Those were shut down (not trading) for 2 weeks or so. Because PACW trades on the NASDAQ, if the bank gets seized, it could be a longer time frame for the stock to be shut down (not trading). Typically banks get seized over the weekend. This gives the regulators a few days to figure out what needs to be done without impacting the markets.
I think you over estimate the power of shorts. PacWest went down because long holders of PacWest got scared by the Fed, by FDIC's seizure of FRC, SIVB, SBNY, etc. In this environment, anybody looking to sell is suspect. If you are long 100,000 shares of PacWest, how much would you sell when you hear they are looking to sell themselves? Knowing that they are selling most likely because of capital deficiency.
SBNY was halted for a few weeks. But it's possible, although rare, for it to take longer. If you are going to play with bank puts I would get on a good broker. I use TD Ameritrade and had no problems exercising my $60 OTM SBNY puts and waiting for OTC. But others on different brokers had all kinds of issues like not being able to exercise, high borrow fees, etc.
I use RH, but I understand the limitations. I sold my SBNY puts before they delisted.
Sitting on 23k of unrealized SBNY puts watching you jerk offs whip yourselves into a frenzy over daddy JPow.. life is good
Total failed assets of SVG & SBNY
Ticker SBNY. Sold put option. 3/17 expiration Strike $60 Premium $4 Closed $70 on expiration I now have a 100 shares at $56/share
SBNY 9 cash secure puts at a $60 strike price expiring Mar 17.
You are next level regarded my friend. Margins on SBNY? Then you doubled down? You are a very special kind of degenerate indeed good sir (or ma’am?) and yes, absolutely, sueing Fidelity is your only logical next step to achieve full, 100%, unabashed regardation.
No, the overwhelming majority of banks are incredibly safe. The sector as a whole has pristine asset quality and much more capital than prior to the "Great Financial Crisis". SIVB an SBNY were extreme outliers.
Total loss from their investments in FRC, SVIB, and SBNY is around $2 billion.
Total loss from their investments in FRC, SVIB, and SBNY is around $2 billion.
They dumped FRC on the 15th per the article...but why the fuck were they specifically only invested in FRC, SIVB, and SBNY?...how do you even pick a fucked up trifecta like that?...
And a friendly reminder that FRC is 8th on the list of banks with highest uninsured deposits in US: 1. BNY Mellon, [$BK](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BK&src=cashtag_click): 97% 2. SVB, [$SIVB](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24SIVB&src=cashtag_click): 94% 3. State Street, [$STT](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24STT&src=cashtag_click): 91% 4. Signature, [$SBNY](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24SBNY&src=cashtag_click): 90% 5. Northern Trust, [$NTRS](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24NTRS&src=cashtag_click): 83% 6. Citigroup, [$C](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24C&src=cashtag_click): 77% 7. HSBC Holdings, [$HSBA](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24HSBA&src=cashtag_click): 73% 8. **First Republic** Bank, [$FRC](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24FRC&src=cashtag_click): 68%
Financial markets always are full of surprises. No didn't miss it, I've been following this super closely on Reddit/Twitter. The point isn't that more than a few people were assigned, it's that some people were NOT assigned. Normally every ITM option is exercised. That wasn't the case with $SBNY and $SIBV 3 days ago. In the instance the $FRC is seized and the stock is halted, there's >0% chance that >0 writers of ITM puts will not be assigned.
**Uninsured Deposits by Bank:** 1. BNY Mellon, $BK: 97% 2. SVB, $SIVB: 94% 3. State Street, $STT: 91% 4. Signature, $SBNY: 90% 5. Northern Trust, $NTRS: 83% 6. Citigroup, $C: 77% 7. HSBC Holdings, $HSBA: 73% 8. First Republic Bank, $FRC: 68% 9. East West Bancorp, $EWBC: 66% 10. Comerica, $CMA: 63% **There are now a total of $8 trillion in uninsured deposits in the U.S.**
No. My puts expire in December so I’m just waiting to see what happens. RH still has $SBNY at $70.
Did you exercise? Looks like SBNY share holders are set to get nothing. NYCB has bought $12.9B worth of its loan asset for a discount price of $2.7B. That's probably how those assets will be sold over the next few weeks.
Of course, but I guess you missed the $SBNY and $SIVB fiasco. Majority of brokerages did not allow put holders to exercise 3/17 expiry options, and people who thought they made 1,000%+ ended up -100%. In that light, there is quite obviously a >0% chance the same situation would occur w/ $FRC, IF an FDIC seizure were to occur.
Got a 4/21 SBNY put that I'm hoping I cash in on... Eventually.
Much better to sell puts. If the stock goes up, you keep the premium. If the FDIC seizes it and freezes the stock, and the brokerages behave the same way they did with $SBNY and $SIVB, then you keep the premium as well.
FRC was right up there with SBNY and SIVB on Burry's bank chart
Hey SBNY holders, did you get anything for your shares? Asking for a FRCiend
Whether or not a stock is halted has no bearing on your ability to exercise a put, period. The only thing that changed this time is that Robinhood caved on their short ban. All other brokers allow exercising a put into a short position anyway. They are free to set their own margin requirements for this as they see fit. OCC specifically allowed delayed settlement for SIVB/SBNY and that is not unusual procedure for a halt either. But SBNY isn't even hard to borrow and there are plenty of shares still available as per iborrowdesk.
Why are you scapegoats here. You sold a contract agreeing to buy SBNY at a certain price and now you had to. It's like insurance, you agreed to ensure a house close to wild fires for a larger than usual premium, now don't act surprised when you have to pay out that claim.