SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
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Powell will Powell the Economy + Bond ETFs for 🏳️🌈 🐻
BOXX - Fixed Income Emulator - No Withholding Taxes?
SPY Technical Analysis for Tuesday, May 24, 2023 - Dividing Lines: The Hunt for a Bipartisan Solution to the Looming Debt Crisis
HODL HODL HODL. Merry-MOASS : NO SHORT SELLER SOLD ABOVE $2.06 as of November 1, 2022. We are $0.40 CENTS SHY of crossing MINI-SQUEEZE TERRITORY. More Buying Pressure is needed to flush out the shorts. HODL HODL HODL.
5 Great Fixed-Income Funds to Buy for 2023.What do you think?
Looking for a treasury-based fund that doesn't pay dividends frequently
Best Treasury bond ETF to buy right before the Fed slashes rates from 4.5% to 0%? Why isn't TLT performance inverted vs SHY this year?
If I'm going to hold a lot of cash for a few months, is keeping it in a T bill ETF like BIL a good idea?
Beating the current market by automatically DCAing into TSLA when it dips. Thoughts on this strategy
Winner or loser? Only time will tell. 2021 ends. The figure below shows the annual return rate of investors who are holding the asset all year without trading. If you have adopted an active trading strategy, but the annual return is lower than the benchmark, think about what went wrong?
Winner or loser? Only time will tell. 2021 ends. The figure below shows the annual return rate of investors who are holding the asset all year without trading. If you have adopted an active trading strategy, but the annual return is lower than the benchmark, think about what went wrong?
Good ETF to buy that is stable & safe, and offers as much interest as possible?
Mentions
I have two brokerage accounts. One mostly for investing long term and another that’s dedicated to short to medium term savings. In the latter I hold enough cash for my emergency fund and also buy funds in “risk parity” way. I use a portfolio called the “Golden Butterfly” for this medium term savings. The idea is to own several different assets that are all positive (go up in value) but inversely correlated (go up and down at different times) so the value of the assets will be stable. It’s working pretty for me. So in addition to the cash , i buy these funds in the equal proportions and rebalance as i buy: GLDM (gold) 20% SHY (Short Term Treasury bonds) 20% TLT (Long Term Treasury bonds) 20% VOO (S&P 500 stock fund) 20% AVUV (Small cap value stock fund) 20% 20% x 5 = 100%
They can on the long end, if you look at the chart of TLT or zroz, massive moves in rate can have massive moves in the underlying ETF. These trade a lot like unleveraged futures so it's a directional bet on rate rather than coupon. As you get towards the front end of the curve there is a lot less leverage. SHY would be a good example. Even if you got the direction wrong on this one all you have to do is wait it out collecting dividends so the chance of losing money is really, almost non-existent. TLT on the other hand. Someone who is inexperienced with the bond market could get themselves in trouble
COME ON AAPL DONT BE SHY. LET ME SEE THAT MASSIVE HORSE COCK 
I sold some of my SP500 and went with some SHY and healthcare etf
my boomerfolio is in SGOV and SHY 
Anything you plan on spending in the next 3 years should be in safe assets like a high-yield savings account, SGOV, SHY, etc.
It was evident to me last week that all asset classes except gold were losers and all were too news driven to try to play. Given that, I took the opportunity to book losses to offset gains for tax purposes one day (April 8) then after the run up sold part of two funds and added to SHY (April 10). I still have way too much stock for this market. My goal is to reduce risk in the face of overwhelming risk and news but be rational. In every other crisis I was already in cash or got out at the first hint of the crisis but it took years to get back into the market. That is why I am moving incrementally now. We already have experienced Trump’s brashness, boasts, then blinks and turnarounds.
Good idea. I have lots more stock than I should for my age and am trying to force myself to sell stock before my gains evaporate and redeploy in bonds and alternative investments but was procrastinating due to the nice bull run and now got caught in this awful rout. My first plan is 50/50 and I am trying to think about what is the best bond mix if we are to enter a recession. Things get real complicated with this foreign bond dumping and I am unsure about the actual future value of foreign bonds right now. So I have been throwing my cash temporarily into SHY (1-3y bond mix). I have been seeing on Reddit and hearing on the news about the risk of US default as a plan and this is also inhibiting my thinking and action. Our political economic positioning is so unstable on a daily basis I am considering moving funds on a monthly basis just to ride out the storm but be moved this calendar year. Right now there is massive foreign flight, both repatriation of foreign money and just plain flight from US bonds as well as US bond dumping distorting the market. My bargain-hunting soul says buy US 10y while the rates are high and the price is low, ignoring the default chatter. Are 10y with short maturities interesting? I really need a bond expert here.
It really depends on your risk tolerance. This market is wild. I have been doing 0DTE, 1-3DTEs and a few weeks out for SPX. For bonds, one way to play this is to keep around 40 percent in short-term Treasuries like SHY for safety, and put the other 60 percent into higher-yielding options like HYG and EMB to boost returns. It’s a barbell setup with steady income on one side and more aggressive growth potential on the other.
Conceptually, you have one way of doing it cheaply. 1. Use futures. Short /ZT (2-yr) and short /ZF (5-yr). This is probably the most efficient way of doing it. Just be a bit cautious of your BP change. This is the most cost efficient method you have - there is an implied financing cost rolled into the future - roughly, it's the yield of the 3-mo treasury bill, but it rolls around all the time. Other options are going to be stuff like short an ETF that contains the same duration you are targeting - maybe a mix of SHY (1-3 yr), IEI (3-7 yr), but your buying a mix of bonds. I'm of the opinion that tariffs are going to be walked back - but who knows. The market moves up 7% in 6 mins off a false rumor - there's a ton of volatility.
Just tried to setup talks with the Prime Minister of Kajagoogoo but I guess he was too SHY. Finding leaders that see eye to eye is a NEVERENDING STORY. I've got a meeting lined up with the reps from Bananarama later. Could be looking at a CRUEL SUMMER! #WallStreet #Deals #Winning
I know nothing of lots of puts as I don't actively trade myself. However, more people than those around the WH must have known of the impending correction/crash coming in April. I read a book called "*The 12% Solution*" a few years ago. The book describes the author's "system" for trading based on once per month trades, on the 1st of the month (or first trading day of the month). I signed up for and get the monthly newsletter the author sends out but don't apply the trades (we have a FA managing accounts for us). On March 31 2025 his newsletter said the trade for April 1 was a flight to safety....60%TLT/40%SHY (20 year/1-3 year treasuries). Just saying his recommendations are based on publicly available market signals and his trade recommendation was for trading on the day before tariff announcements by POTUS.
Similarly, on the last day of March, the author of "*The 12% Solution*" sent out the monthly trade info (based on some signals I suppose) that said to go to safety and shift the portfolio to 60% TLT and 40% SHY 4/1/25 for the monthly trade. I read the book a few years ago and signed up for the monthly trade newsletter but I don't follow/employ the signals as we have a FA managing for us. If I had traded as told, the entire drop due to tariffs would have been avoided and would actually be "in the green."
You can. SHY tracks short term Treasuries.
If you intend to need some of that notional money as actual money for a down payment on real estate sell that much now & put it in SGOV or SHY for the transaction.
DCA into the S&P500 is a time honored approach. We all did it in the 90s. It’s not bad. After dotcom and 2008 recession, we started to think a more nimble approach was called for, avoiding the dangers of emotional or impulsive trading. We found good ideas around. Check out Carter 12% Solution. His book describes the rationale and his back testing. Essentially one rebalances once a month using set parameters in ETFs. No subscription either, just a book and a free email monthly notice. The goal over time is 12%/yr. Just rebalance once month and go live life. FYI, the current advice is JNK/SHY. I think he does other more aggressive strategies too.
Cash or equivalents like SHY are good places to be right now. Look at sectors or individual companies that may do ok in a recession. Good used cars will be in demand. Look at KMX, CPRT, CRNA. Lots of others. I don’t think there is an etf strictly for used vehicles. These next few weeks are for watching and thinking.
I’m buying…SOXS, SPXS, TSLS, SHY and put options :).
It's not possible. If that happens you have a lot bigger things to worry about then what you're trading account is doing. At that point it's guns and ammo and hunting land Look at the chart, look at TLT and SHY from the beginning of this correction until now. Overlay that with the S&P 500, it's pretty obvious
Hi everyone, I'm new to investing and trying to get a better grasp of bonds and interest rates. Right now, I have all my cash in SGOV since my brokerage doesn’t provide interest on idle cash. From what I understand, SGOV is an ETF that tracks short-term bonds. This means that if the US lowers interest rates, SGOV will quickly start paying lower dividends, and its stock price should drop to reflect that. If I believe the US is heading for a mini recession, leading to likely rate cuts to encourage spending, would it make sense to move my money into an ETF tracking slightly longer-term bonds, like SHY? Right now, the bond yields (and thus the dividend yields) for SGOV and SHY seem pretty similar. Wouldn’t buying SHY now let me lock in these ~4% yields for a bit longer if rates do go down? From what I understand, if interest rates stay the same, I should earn about the same return on my invested cash either way. My only real risk is if rates go up, which, based on my limited knowledge, doesn’t seem likely at the moment. That said, I’m still a beginner, so I could be totally off here, which is why I’m asking for your opinions. Is my understanding of the relationship between these ETFs, bonds, dividends, and interest rates correct? And looking ahead, what do you think will happen with interest rates? One other thing to note: I’m keeping this cash uninvested in stocks due to market volatility, so I might need to move it back into stocks on short notice. Would that factor into the decision? Thanks for your insights!
Most charts are fairly inaccurate for bond funds; you'll want to look at https://totalrealreturns.com/n/TLT,SHY which graphs reinvesting dividends. >Why are they fluctuating so much? I see prices have dropped a lot in the last 5 years (I guess due to the IR increases) Correct, the prices of bonds and bond funds varies according to the rates accessible for new bonds. Longer term bonds are subject to more interest rate risk and thus their value is less stable. That being said, it's a little more complicated than the oft-said "increasing rates means bond prices go down". This is a good read: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=360575 >so I guess they don't work as a normal bond that you can keep to maturity and take your initial capital back? Most bond funds maintain a constant duration by buying and selling bonds. Thus, you cannot ever hold a fund to duration. Blackrock created a set of funds to solve this problem: https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/bond-etfs/build-better-bond-ladders Otherwise you have to buy individual bonds, which some people find trivial and others fairly annoying. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Individual_bonds_vs_a_bond_fund is a good read. It took me a few days to work through it and (at least mostly) understand. For a risk parity portfolio, the constant durations are probably what you want. Short-term funds provide stability at the expense of returns. Long-term funds _tend_ to move upwards when the stock market goes down. Both of those provide you the opportunity to easily rebalance from whichever asset class is doing well to the one that isn't, which in turn automatically creates a buy low sell high situation. It also keeps the asset allocation in weight, which is important for cushioning losses. Holding a bond to duration is for when you don't care about what happens in the middle and only want a certain amount by the end.
>Why does TLT fluctuate so much? Interest rates change. Yields on long term bonds have been expanding so the price will have gone down. Funds like TLT and SHY target a fixed average duration so as interest rates fluctuate, the price of the fund will change as well. I don't know if Yahoo provides total return - you have to look at the total return which can also vary depending on whether distributions are reinvested or not. With divs reinvested - for TLT - performance should be closer to -25.8% - [https://totalrealreturns.com/n/USDOLLAR,TLT?start=2020-01-02](https://totalrealreturns.com/n/USDOLLAR,TLT?start=2020-01-02)
I have a noobie question. I am not sure how bond ETFs work honestly. Take for example the Bond etfs that are proposed for a golden butterfly portfolio, TLT for logn term and SHY for short term. My questions: 1) Are these giving a yield (coupon)? If I look them up in Yahoo it shows a yield of 4.27% for TLT and 3.9% for SHY 2) Why are they fluctuating so much? I see prices have dropped a lot in the last 5 years (I guess due to the IR increases), so I guess they don't work as a normal bond that you can keep to maturity and take your initial capital back? Example: If I make a fake portfolio on Yahoo finance starting from 2nd January 2020 and I add SHY and TLT, then TLT is -35.5% and SHY is -3%. Why does TLT fluctuate so much? And does it calculate yields in there? I don't see any coupons being shown as income.
If your Roth IRA is for retirement, it makes sense to have a separate strategy for medium-term goals like buying land in 10-20 years. For that timeframe, a mix of Treasury ETFs (like SGOV or SHY for stability) and broad market ETFs (SP500 or total market index funds) could work well—offering growth without the volatility of short-term trading. For truly short-term savings, a high-yield savings account can be useful, but as you mentioned, many barely outpace inflation. If you're looking for the best rates, [Banktruth HYSA](https://banktruth.org/savings/?ttcid=high-yield-savings-c) is a great resource to compare HYSAs and other accounts. Trading on your own? It's not hard, but it requires time and discipline. If you're not looking to actively manage, long-term index investing is usually the safer bet.
If your goal is 10-20 years, allocate the $20K between S&P 500 ETFs (like VOO or SPY) for growth and Treasury ETFs (like SHY or TLT) for stability. A brokerage account gives you flexibility without the tax advantages of a Roth IRA. HYSA isn’t ideal for growth. If you want to learn trading, start with The Intelligent Investor and Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits.
For portfolios like the permanent portfolio or the golden butterfly portfolio, the idea is to get the most volatile assets that do well in each economic scenario and then "harvest" that volatility by algorithmicly or strategically rebalancing. So for the bond portion, you want the longest duration bonds possible to barbell. In the case of the US, the longest duration is 30 but if the option was available for 50 then that would be the most desirable. For the cash portion, just cash or a cash equivalent like SHY. Cash can be very volatile and go up in value quickly in acute credit crunches.
I can only speak to my mindset on it, but I'm not a financial professional; I just figure out how to make cars go in circles. Let's assume a split weighting between SGOV and TLT. I use those two as SGOV is even further on the short end than SHY. And as an aside, GOVI seems pretty strongly correlated to TLT. Where we are today: A relatively flat yield curve, with rates having seen an uptick since "the bottom" in 2020. If interest rates don't go anywhere, well, SGOV and TLT both return about the same. If interest rates go up, the principal value for SGOV really won't budge, but the yield will increase. TLT will become even cheaper, and for a fixed allocation it's an opportunity to buy. If interest rates go down—perhaps as part of the next economic contraction—my TLT position should go up in value and be an opportunity to sell at a profit. And SGOV should remain relatively unchanged. Between the two of them, that seems like an opportunity to sell and rebalance especially if stock prices have become depressed. Splitting the two I feel like you have more options on what you want to do based on the difference in interest rate sensitivity.
Money market funds or short term treasury etfs like SHY or VGSH. VTIP is fine too.
If NVDA gets to 100 or below I'm loading LEAP calls and deleting the app after maybe putting the rest of my port in SQQQ and TLT/SHY/Cash
I still don't hold much in bonds as they just don't do much and I'm retired. You can hold an index fund of bonds like BSV and of the bond funds I hold it's only up 1.05%. I also hold BLV, GVI, SHY and both are down YTD. I wouldn't hold much in bonds. If the market tanks, bonds are up, but still.... You could hold some Real Estate ETF like VNQ up 14% this year.
Bond newbie Q: Why did 1-3 month BIL take bigger hit yesterday than 1-3 year SHY? I’ve been parking money in BIL because I assumed the ultra-short duration BIL would be less rate sensitive to than a longer-duration ETF like SHY. But yesterday BIL dropped more than twice as much as SHY (.4% vs .2%) following the Fed meeting. I thought I’d chosen one of the least volatile Treasury ETF options. What’s the deal?
Your current holdings of TLTS offer long-term Treasury yields, MUNI offers tax advantages, and iBonds protect against inflation. Consider supplementing medium-term bonds (such as IEFs) to smooth out duration risk. If you have a higher risk tolerance, you can add some high-yield bonds (such as HYG). Depending on your goals and liquidity needs, short-term bonds (such as SHY) or cash equivalents (such as BIL) may be useful additions
SGOV dividend is probably about the same as HYSA. I have been slowly moving capital out the duration curve since last year. Every time we get a good rally in yields a move a little more. MM -> SHY -> IEF -> TLT
Gains *always* outweigh tax, because the tax is only levied on gains. If we are parking short term money, it should be in tax advantaged treasury funds (tbills, treasury bonds, you dont pay state or local taxes). Ultra short duration would be SGOV or USFR On your short timeline of a years duration you'd be looking at SHY. You dont have to worry about taxes or whatever, it all gets taken care of within your 1099 form from the brokerage.
Going to be hard to get intelligent conversations here. But here is my take on your question as well as some other consideration. During a market correction or drawdown, the performance of different asset classes varies based on the nature of the correction, interest rate environment, and economic backdrop. Here’s how some common options—utility ETFs, real estate ETFs, and bonds—typically behave and which provide better protection: 1. Utility ETFs Performance During Drawdowns: Utility ETFs (e.g., XLU - Utilities Select Sector SPDR) are considered defensive due to their stable cash flows and essential services (electricity, water, etc.). Advantages: Generally less volatile than the broader market. Dividend-paying, providing income during periods of uncertainty. Drawbacks: May still decline during corrections, especially if interest rates rise, as utilities are sensitive to bond yields. Effectiveness: Moderate protection. Utilities tend to outperform during corrections but may lag if the selloff is due to rising interest rates. 2. Real Estate ETFs Performance During Drawdowns: Real estate ETFs (e.g., VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETF) are less consistent in providing protection because their performance is tied to economic conditions and interest rates. Advantages: Real estate often serves as a hedge against inflation in a low-rate environment. Provides income through REIT dividends. Drawbacks: Sensitive to rising interest rates, as higher borrowing costs hurt real estate profits. Can underperform in recessions or economic downturns. Effectiveness: Low-to-moderate protection. Real estate ETFs may not perform well if the correction is driven by recession fears or rising rates. 3. Bonds Bonds are traditionally seen as a safe haven during market corrections, but their effectiveness depends on the type of bonds and the interest rate environment. Treasury Bonds: Long-Term Bonds (e.g., TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF): Provide strong protection during equity market selloffs, especially if rates fall as investors seek safety. Highly sensitive to interest rate changes. Short-Term Bonds (e.g., SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF): Provide more stability during rate changes but offer lower returns. Good for preserving capital during volatile periods. Corporate Bonds: Investment-Grade Bonds (e.g., LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF): Provide moderate protection but can be affected by credit risk in severe downturns. High-Yield Bonds (e.g., HYG - iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF): Poor protection during corrections due to higher default risk. Effectiveness: Treasury bonds (particularly long-term) offer the best protection during corrections, especially when interest rates are declining. Conclusion: Best for Protection 1. Treasury Bonds (Long-Term): Historically the most reliable hedge during equity market corrections. Best choice if the correction coincides with falling interest rates or economic uncertainty. 2. Utility ETFs: Defensive but may be less effective if corrections are caused by rising rates. 3. Real Estate ETFs: Provide moderate protection but are vulnerable in rate-driven corrections or economic I did not include gold ETFs but it provides pretty good protection. I realize this is beyond the scope of your questions. Just a sidebar.
If you're familiar with Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio, you know the entire idea is to match the performance of the market with a lower Sharpe ratio. By losing very little principal during drawdowns, it avoids the "[volatility tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_tax)" that crushes your long-term CAGR. In its original 1999 incarnation, the portfolio was divided according to this rubric: * 25% equities (can be represented by SPY) * 25% long-term bonds (can be represented by TLT) * 25% gold (can be represented by GLD) * 25% cash (can be represented by SHY or a savings account) Ray Dalio's twist on it during the 2000s was to apply external leverage to juice returns. The original's Sharpe ratio was 0.6 and Dalio pushed it back up to 1, accruing better ROI with the same volatility as SPY. Recently Porter Stansberry introduced his version which is predicated on internal leverage and filtering criteria for equities. The actual details are too long for this post, but the idea of internal leverage^1 to increase returns without increasing risk exposure has been bouncing around in my mind. For the last six months I've been theorycrafting a barbell portfolio whose short end can be converted to produce high convexity returns during a market drawdown. The key word here is *converted*: I was looking for a bond substitute that was liquid enough to be turned into a security with non-linear returns on short notice. During period of crisis for the bond market, long-term securities can become extremely illiquid as the buyer side dries up. In such instances you are stuck with a "risk free" asset that's rapidly depreciating in value. Simultaneously I wanted to avoid the main issue with relying on the Sharpe ratio - it forces your CAGR to converge with the general market during good times. We want a setup that outperforms when the market's hot and offers better principal protection when it's cold. After doing some research and crunching numbers since the beginning of May, I arrived at the following portfolio: * 30% equities, replacing SPY with high-quality companies adhering to strict criteria. * 30% gold and other precious/industrial metals, leveraged through exposure to high-quality companies adhering to strict criteria. * 20% option strategies high win rate, high profit factor options strategies using Kelly Criterion to determine allocation. These replace bonds entirely. * 20% cash, preferably in a MMF or saving accounts with an interest rate that tracks inflation. The big departure is replacing the fixed income portion of bonds and substituting it with options. It probably sounds ludicrous for those who view options as speculative, but that's due to retail primarily using options for speculation. They don't employ a systematic approach to generating profit and curtailing risk. Yet there are several ways to approximate the function of bonds to get sequential cash flow^3. The tradeoff is accepting moderately higher risk for much better return, and the risk can be ameliorated. * In theory, you stand to lose your entire premium if the option expires worthless. In reality, it is easy to set up contracts so that you retain time premium and exit them to preserve the majority of your capital. Unless you're running a 0DTE, you should never lose more than 25%. * Since these strategies piggyback off the embedded behavior of institutions, they are agnostic to the state of the market. It doesn't matter if it is in a bullish, bearish, or sideways period. * As these income option contracts are primarily short duration, the cash from premiums + returns can be invested into longer-dated puts during market corrections. At the bottom of bear markets, the cash flow can be diverted into equities. * Repeatable options strategies are not that rare. For example, there is a multi-leg setup that has a historical win rate of 90% with an average 20% return per winning transaction and a 13:1 profit factor. When we exclude compounding and focus on a fixed initial stake executed once per week, you will generate roughly 600% return on that investment over 40 weeks. The general loss when it fails is 5-10% with an occasional dip below 20%. There are strategies based on gamma exposure, anchored VWAP on stocks with strong upwards/downward momentum, 0DTE credit spreads, selling contracts on blue-chips during periods of momentary weakness, etc. that succeed 80-95% of the time once you filter for ideal candidates and set the appropriate contract parameters. * As a corollary to 3 and 4, the outsized profit factor allows you to allocate more to equities and commodities while maintaining a low Sharpe ratio. The returns are cycled into cash on a weekly basis, which gives you the flexibility to change portfolio distribution based on the state of the market. ^1 The difference between external leverage and internal leverage is how the investment produces outsized returns. External leverage is increasing the base return on an investment by using debt and pledging collateral against said debt. This debt is independent of the investment, such as a margin account. Internal leverage is selecting securities whose price movement amplifies changes in the underlying environment or asset, treating the security as a first order derivative. Think of junior miners that go up 500%, 1000%, 5000% during a gold bull market. The key to using internal leverage successfully is to get exposure to upside volatility while mitigating downside volatility, using a combination of allocation size and selecting capital-efficient proxies with good management. Leveraged ETFs are not considered. ^2 Bonds are simply a debt contract between the issuer and the holder where the latter assumes reliable, predictable behavior from the former. In the case of the U.S. government, the holder assumes the government is both solvent and fulfill their obligations. Guess what that also describes? An options contract. The difference is, as a holder, are counting on consistent behavior from the major institutions who control 80-85% of all transaction volume.
Que [Lil Wayne - a milli](https://youtu.be/wD899yu8SHY?si=srAR_sup_eWmrawl). Muthafucka I’m ill. Good fucking shit bro🙏📈💰
JPOW: Rates are getting cut 50 bps *Treasuries commit seppuku* JPOW: Rates are getting cut 25 bps *Treasuries go "meh"* JPOW: Fed doesn't need to be in a hurry to cut rate *Treasuries go seppuku again* Goddamn you think the stock market is regarded the bond market is beyond me. FUCK TLT, FUCK SHY, fuck the fed, fuck it all 
I split mine between SHY and SGOV. SHY has options, so you can sell covered calls as well, it juices the yield a bit.
Calls on any government paper (TLT, SHY, etc)
You could also mix exposures, a blend of cash (USFR), maybe short treasuries since your goal is on short treasury timescale (SHY), and then some allocation to equity risk. Less upside, less downside.
I have positions in TLT, IEF, and SHY. I have been slowly moving out the curve a little at a time on each rally in yields.
If you want safe money, the best option probably is either short term Treasuries or short term TIPs. Look into SHY, VGSH and VTIP. Defensive stock are still stocks, so they’re still risky and they’re still highly correlated with the stock market. My point is, they’re safe relative to VOO, but they’re not the safest thing in the world.
I'm going for the return on bonds over the return on stocks. So SHY doesn't need to represent the total bond value.
SHY does not represent that total value of all US treasury bonds. Is that what you are going for?
This could be a dip buying opportunity but the bond market has to come to heel. Right now the market thinks FOMC went full regard with 50bps and is going to jack inflation back up Bagholding 100c 12/31 and praying it recovers but I would stay the fuck away from US bonds for another FOMC or two. And if you want more exposure to FOMC action buy SHY.
SHY rallied, JNK rallied, even AGG is up a bit IEF, TLT tho? Fucking flat 
my good wrinklebrain regard, why did the fed fuck yields by trying to *lower* them? This is a serious question, my TLT bags are getting mad heavy, and it doesn't even look like SHY and shorties are doing that great either 
all the fixed income ETFs i track are dying today, even SHY. This is just the market being the market and why you don't long FDs on this shit
it can take longer for it to feel the effect look at SHY and other shorter term treasury ETFs - they feel the more immediate effect of FOMC action as the yield curve uninverts and things normalize you should see bond yields fall across the board as the FOMC traders push interest rates lower by buying more treasuries. So if your going to surf that beach, go long dated options. I've got 12/31 expiry
If you want, you could do something like the "golden butterfly". You could run it *if* youre comfortable with the 8% volatility and ~22% max drawdown. Its sensible if the absolute requirements for your emergency needs are ~25-30% less than the maximum value that you have invested, since in that case you would have enough even if you hit the max drawdown again. You get limited exposure to the market with large cap blend and small cap value, then you get stable short term yield with short term treasuries and crash hedge from long treasuries, and an additional uncorrelated source of volatility from gold, even though gold has zero real expected return (in excess of inflation). Example of taking a much lower equity allocation, splitting the rest into short bonds, long bonds, and gold, and rebalancing yearly. Not as great returns as just holsing stocks *over a long time frame*, but significantly lower volatility and significantly lower max drawdown. This is 20/20/20/20/20 S&P / SCV / Short term treasury bonds / long treasury bonds / gold (you could use SPLG or VOO / AVUV / SHY / EDV / GLDM). https://testfol.io/?d=eJy1UdFKwzAU%2FRW5Dz4ViaKCARGkbj4MLLbIhoxybW5qNEtmmm1I2b97aweWPfTNPOVyTs4596SF2vo3tBkGXDUgW2gihlgqjAQSIAFyajD16BYtyHPBJwFUH6Vx2mI03oHUaBtKoMLmXVu%2FAyn%2BhlIH%2BmKdBWGw36wWvLXG1eXOONVxr8U%2BgbUPUXtrPMd5bcHhqvOeeqvIndxvYqSgf18bt6UmpmZrGFHMjmHD1oF4H3QVTY7coqk%2BKfSq%2FZ3RPFsUz3cPt2fihilrChW5CPKCkwxY6SR%2FmY%2Fg%2BSOrjODFrBjFp0%2BzdN6luDwiLRNQAWuuseMfushPsysh%2FrkB%2Ft6h%2B3L%2FA%2BfttWg%3D
yeah, that's the wrinklebrained explanation so SHY calls were a better idea than TLT, but that dip just looked so sweet before JPOW time i couldn't help myself i also made good money off the trade earlier this year so i guess i was hoping to go back to the well one more time i'll be holding for a while. I guess it could be worse 
Not sure if it's a language barrier - and I don't speak Portuguese. Are you asking about how to invest in US treasury bonds? It looks like you have access to US ETFs like SGOV. That is effectively the same thing for ultra-short duration treasuries. Are you looking for longer duration treasury funds? If so - what duration or average maturity are you seeking? There are other treasury ETFs that you can use depending on what you are seeking such as BILS (3-12 month), SHY (1-3 year), IEI (3-7year), IEF (7-10 year), TLT (10+ year)
25% low fee stock market etf(VOO or VTI) 70% short term treasury bill(SHY or XHLF or SGOV) 5% CASH This allocation provides annual return of at least 5% of 3 million=150k before tax
It is a wise move if you have 4 years left to retirement. Market is very risky. I would go with 1-3 years maturity bonds. You may check SHY etf.
What duration? For example SHY is 1 to 3 years. IEF is 7 to 10 years. TLT is 20+ years in the ishares Treasuries etf series. If you just want the monthly divvies and don't want to worry about NAV fluctuating with interest rate forecasts then SGOV is the 0 to 3 month etf.
You will see a higher appreciation with the long duration bonds. Short term is more liquid but they won't appreciate much. Look at BIL and SHY for example
>Assume something like March of 2020 happen, how would these ETFs behave? If you want to know how they would behave if something like March of 2020 happened, why not just look at their performance in March of 2020? https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BIL,USFR,SHY,BSV,NEAR&p=6 >I know what would happen to the bond market, not sure how the effect translates to the ETF itself ETFs perform the same as their holdings. >Would the dividend payout increase given that bond prices would drop? Um, lower grade bond prices might fall briefly due to higher default risk but high quality short term bonds would not really change much in price. In fact, their yield would probably fall and price rise slightly and briefly as the Fed cuts rates to counteract negative economic conditions. Since short term bonds turn over quickly, they will return (including the price change plus new yield from there) their original yield over only a short lifetime. The low yield would continue on from there as the fund buys fresh bonds.
I would take a small amount of money, maybe $500? Could even be $100. An amount that would keep you interested, but that you could easily afford to lose. Then I would maybe select a handful of stocks, over three, but under 15. Be as active as you want. Then I would take a larger amount of money or maybe the same depending on how much you really have at risk. I would open a second account, and I would buy nothing but VOO or SPY, they are basically the same. Uck, despite the fact that your time frame means you really shouldn't own many bonds, I would consider opening a 3rd account and buying SHY, which is 1-3 year treasuries. Now, let me explain. It's much easier to compare the performance of the three things if you keep them separate. I think there is a decent chance you will lose most or all of the money in the stock selection account. That's fine, you can re-fund it and try again, maybe increase the size if you're interested, but you'll probably underperform the VOO/SPY account. Then I would suggest you look at the accounts once a week or so. But you should monitor the market everyday, and on big move days, I would also look at the accounts. Good luck out there. You'll learn a lot with my suggestions.
I agree. Cracks are starting to appear. It's the reason why I'm building positions in SHY and USD. I also starting to slowly buy out options on VXX and also call options on TLT. In a larger geopolitical sense, it's not that Powell absolutely does not want to cut. Powell is just in a game of inflation chicken where he cannot cut first before the other central banks around the world. Think about it. The US relies on the strength of the US dollar to maintain financial hegemony over the world. Powell waiting to cut until after ECB and BOE and other central banks cut first is that it will keep interest rates on the US dollar higher than other fiat currencies, keeping demand for US dollars high and allowing the US to maintain financial hegemony over the world. Once the other central banks go into crisis and are forced to cut drastically, that will give the fed all the freedom in the world to cut rates.
Consider there is a CPI inflation report dropping around July 10. Also consider there is an FOMC meeting July 31. Oil and gasoline prices rose all though June. I think the June CPI report is not gonna be favorable for the imminent rate cut narrative Also the fed has outright come out and said they are not ready to cut rates yet. I think the higher forever narrative of the markets is gonna have more an more difficult moving forward. I dont think the rally is over. Far from it. I'm staying long the markets but I'm also building positions in SHY (1-3 yr treasuries) and USDU (US dollar bullish)
You can buy them directly from the government at TreasuryDirect.gov, and your broker likely offers ways of buying them too. Or you can buy treasury ETFs like SHY and SHV.
You could buy SHV, SHY, or other ETFs that hold treasuries maturing in ~1 year. Or you can buy them directly from the government at TreasuryDirect.gov
GHEY BEARS BACK INTO HIBERNATION ON $NVDA SHOW THAT LOSS PORN BOYS DONT BE SHY NOOOOWW 
Govt bond etfs have decent yields given they're around the 20 year high. SHY is the safest as it tracks the current yield and the share prices dont fluctuate as hard. So selling the shares can happen in a pinch. I buy TLT and sell covered calls on them to make income on top of the dividend payments. However the risks are: TLT share price can drop leaving you at a paper loss, and TLT share prices can surge past your covered call strike price and cap your gains.
I for the most part follow the “120 - your age” rule with equities and bonds/cash. I’m 35, so I should have about 85% equities, 15% bonds/cash. Maybe stick with the S&P 500, then the remainder in SHY/BND? Depends on how aggressive you want to be too.
I’m a fan of 50-50 VT & SCHD. If I were you probably would add some SHY as well.
Check out SHY ETF. Lowest volatility.
dude i just looked into BLV and SHY and those monthly dividends are insane. im in. mucho gracias for the advice.
As I said - its just the underlying that is different really Its like saying whats the different between VTI and VT? Its holding different stocks The difference between SHY and TLT? The duration of the bonds they are holding The yield is different cause the bonds in it are different as well
Ok so first, a bond etf is not a stock The different yields are there cause the underlying bonds have a different yield as well - also depending on the duration of the bonds, e.g. a 1-3y bond etf like SHY will result in less yield (or currently more due to inverted yield curve) than a 20y bond etf like TLT The other difference in same-duration bonds is coming up through the different central bank rates of the underlying currency the bond is issued in, as well as the risk premium of the country that is issuing the bond (or corporate in that matter, if your looking for corporate bonds not government bonds..) So yeh, its a whole lot to look at WHY the yield is different..
NXP for municipals LQD for corporates BLV for long term treasuries VWOB for emerging market bonds SHY for 1-3 year treasuries BIL if you want short term liquidity I lean more towards municipals to avoid income taxes but NXP is one of the better funds that has been consistent for decades.
For longterm, like next 5y ish - copper, mining generally, energy sec especially grid and robotics like ABB.. Ah and.. for next 6-18months, mix between short end and longend gov bonds, smth like SHY and TLT..
Alot of people will tell you to pick value stocks to balance out the growth. However, from looking at value stocks during big market wide crashes ( 2008 & 2022 ), value took big -30% hits when tech was taking -60-70% hits. My picks now for defense/hedging are in “Anti-Market” ETFs, short term US treasuries/debt securities, stable currencies, HYSA’s, and Gold: BTAL, SHY, MINT, FXF, UUP, & GLD. These performed significantly better than Value stocks - Check the stats yourself on Yahoo Finance etc. to fact check me.
I am 52 years old would like to retire at 60-65 I owe 300k on my house valued at 1million, and I have 200k cash liquid. My mortgage is 3.5%, I am single, mortgage is ~4,5k a month. I am contributing the most I can every month to my 401k. Close to 20% of my income. My holdings in my 401k are 5% gold 1% silver 10% VHT 10% SHY 10% VOO 5% VUG 5% COST 10% VIG 4% Blackrock Not sure where to put the other 40% or if I even have the current 60% allocated correctly. I am buying into the market now, so I am aware the market is near or at all time highs, therefore everything is expensive.
> You can see that in the way people reacted when their "safe" bond funds dropped like a brick with interest rates went up and they were confused. Even though it's pretty much exactly what you expect from a 8.5 year average duration bond fund -which they might not realize is what AGG or BND is. is SGOV or SHY the best ETF for retirement?
Why gamble? Just invest it and you don’t have to worry about the risk, although maybe that’s the nut. In that case, buy some SHY Jan 2025 85 calls
Buying TYD, it’s leveraged but has a little slippage because of it but if it goes up it’s fine. If you want even less leverage then buying SHY, regular 1-3 year treasury ETF (shares would be best, but you’ll really only make like 5% over 2 years, plus the yield which is around 4% a year, total ~10% gain over 2 years) calls on it might be better but you’re dealing with long term so that time decay will really eat away at it
There's SHY which is a 1-3 year bond ETF, but I'm not sure why you'd wanna be in short duration bonds if you're betting on falling rates.
Beg him to buy SGOV or SHY and paper trade on thr stocks if he absolutely wants to do it. I personally don't think seniors have the reaction time to know when to sell or take profit.
40k for two months, depending on the timing, you could make a couple hundred bucks maybe with relatively safe ETFs that track t-bills like CLIP or SHY....but still open to minor risk for minor payout. They pay monthly
Disclaimer: Since you didn't provide it, I'm going to assume you're already aware that my comments don't take into consideration your age, risk tolerance, investment goals, personal situations, blah blah blah. What type of account is this? Retirement or taxable? There are several different strategies you can deploy, and some of them hinge on the type of account (specifically, the types of instruments you can use). Regardless of the tax status, just putting it all in SPY is probably fine. It's an extremely low-maintenance, tried-and-true strategy that doesn't have a lot of major pitfalls (aside from the timing risk, e.g. you decide that you need the money at the bottom of a bear market, etc.) Depending on age/risk tolerance, you could also mix in some bonds. Laddering maturities would also help insulate you from yield curve shifts and twists (e.g. spread money between TLT, IEF, SHY, etc.) Another low-maintenance portfolio would be a risk-parity portfolio like Ray Dalio's "All Weather" portfolio (mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities), although it's been underperforming the past few years due to rising interest rates. If you're comfortable with it, one of my favorite strategies is to take advantage of margin (NOT NECESSARILY LEVERAGE, important distinction), and incorporate options and futures. The most straightforward way to do that would be replace your long beta exposure (e.g. all-in SPY) with long S&P futures (/ES contracts). You can get the same exposure for considerably less capital, and use the extra cash in other places (single stocks, diversifying assets, etc.) You just have to roll your contracts every three months, and make sure you have enough of a cash buffer to cover the variation margin payments. Since you absolutely have enough cash to qualify for portfolio margin and accredited investor status, there's a huge variety of more complex strategies that you can employ as well. Depending on your level of financial sophistication, you could dabble with a leveraged portfolio (e.g. a 1.2x portfolio) or investing in private equity funds (which can have a CAGR of 20%+). Since you mentioned covered calls, you could also deploy option strategies. Buying call options is essentially margin-less leverage. There are some people who've had great success using deep ITM call options to get long market exposure (similar to the futures strategy mentioned above). You can also employ some option-selling strategies like short vertical spreads, short strangles, etc. Typically option selling doesn't outperform buy & hold, and is more hands-on, but it does offer a non-correlated source of returns. Hopefully this gives you some ideas or areas for further research. IMO, having half a mil and not knowing what to do with it is a fantastic problem to have. As a word of caution, I've seen a lot of people blow up massive accounts by getting greedy/chasing returns, getting more complex than they need to, using strategies that they don't fully understand, trading for fun/hobby, etc. With that amount of money, your top priority should be capital preservation. It's so much easier to go from $500k to $1M than it is to go from $10k to $100k. Don't be stupid and invest for excitement. Investing isn't supposed to be exciting. If you want to have a small portion of your portfolio allocated for risky bets, that's fine, but limit it to 5-10% of your overall net liquidated value. There's a reason 99.9% of people (or fund managers for that matter) don't beat the S&P on a yearly basis, or even over the lifetime fund returns. TL;DR: SPY is fine. Don't chase returns. Stay smart. Protect your money. You've got a nest egg larger than 90% of people will have in their entire lives. Appreciate that. Losing money is more impactful financially and emotionally than making money.
Curious if anyone who diversifies some percent of their investments into actual Bills Notes Bonds would do the same if the only option were Bond ETFs that matched the duration you're looking for. I learned a hard lesson being in TLT in the first half of 2022 thinking that bonds (actual or ETFs) were the "safe place" when stocks enter bear territory. I asked several forums if it made sense holding LT bond ETF at the time, when JPow was literally telegraphing "rates higher, every FOMC meeting, until we see the numbers we want which will take some pain". Everyone said yeah don't try to time the market. But in this case I didn't have to. The Fed was doing it for us. Finally sold my position, at a loss, but would have been 3x as bad if I held through the down-only period. But I did realize that if I held actual bonds, and the time horizon was on par w my goals, then nothing would have changed the fact I'd get face value + interest at maturity. On the other hand, bond ETFs are like buying bonds that never mature. And are constantly subjected to interest rate risk and inflows/outflows from the fund and can trade like stocks (see TLT Mar 2022 - Sept 2023). Anyway, is everyone here always referring to actual T-bills and notes etc from their broker/Treasury Direct or do some of you consider ETFs like BND, TLT, SCHO, SHY as an equivalent to the bonds they track?
At the moment, the Fed is not a buyer of treasury bonds. The Fed is doing QT right now. This is bearish for treasury bonds. If you want to speculate on treasury rates going down. The SHY treasury etf is short term. Just 1-3 years. The TLT is too dangerous until the govt fiscal situation stabilizes.
It looks like **BIL** is "SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF", which SGOV is also a 0-3 month T-Bill ETF. You can check to see if you have access to that in your UK brokerage account. Random article I found when googling for "Can UK residents buy USA treasury bonds?" is listing **BIL** for 1-3 month bonds, **SHY** for 1-3 year bonds, and **TLT** for +20 year bonds.
I see why BND is down *now* that interest rates are rising but interest rates were low in 2020/2021, no? SHY in the graph you linked looks like it did well in those years. Actually... weird, it looks like they both did well over COVID https://i.imgur.com/WxGJjHk.png maybe I'm misremembering and just bitter that it's down now :-)
You don't exactly hold bonds, at least not till the expiry date if you buy bond funds. That constant rolling into new bonds that meet the criteria is the reason the value goes down if rates rise. See [here](https://money.stackexchange.com/a/156572/109107) for plenty of details (for SHY ETF specifically, but the same applies to almost all bond funds and ETFs).
SHY ETF. Lowest standard deviation.
Not stupid at all. TLT should benefit from higher convexity relative to IEF or SHY when yields drop. When this happens is anyone’s guess. I’m oversimplifying, but longer duration bond ETF’s w/ higher convexity should benefit when long rates on the yield curve drop. Long govt bonds used to be looked at as a portfolio stabilizer, but whether that is still the case today is up for debate.
I've bought a little bit across the yield curve--SHY (no real risk here), GOVT, TLT, and GOVZ. I'm convinced this will play out well, but I'm not sure the we have hit bottom yet, so I'm slowly buying for now.
avoid BND. Choose a duration: SHV SHY VGIT VGLT.....
you'd better look at ticker SHY etf it's 1~3 t bond. but it doesn't have fluctuation like long term bond.
Not sure about 6 month, but SHY is 1-3 years
BIL and SHY for ETFs depending on the duration you're looking for.
TLT will take a share price hit every rate hike. Go compare TLT, SGOV and SHY charts on top of each other. That's the inversion. Every rate hike SGOV will notch a little higher and SHY will notch a little lower and TLT will notch more lower because the shorter term just became more attractive than the mid term or long term. As these funds get churned replacing redeemed positions for new positions their average yield will improve as they ride the un inversion wave out into the future. But you have to understand that the reason people have these is for the monthly dividend, it's a substitute for buying your own bonds. And the bond market if extremely efficient. You'll see the bottom of TLT when the rate hikes stop and the market prices that in. NFA
Well, at least you mostly didn't lose money. You outperformed 99% of r/wsb. If you're not the gambling type, you might be better off putting your money in just treasury bonds (SHY ETF) + and some combination of VOO (S&P 500) and Russell 2K (IWM). Don't be surprised if you go down 20-30% next year though, the economy is pretty unpredictable right now. If you ARE the gambling type, maybe the advisor is worth it, just so you don't do anything stupid.
SGOV only has treasuries with a 0-3 maturity. I recommend SHY or VGSH to get exposure to a bit longer maturities.