SPY

LostandConfused2024

Everyone just keeps yapping, but discussing no updates to the war. SPY 700 EOM

FleetAdmiralFader

You arent correct about the ATM straddle being 1 standard deviation, it is actually closer to 0.8 standard deviations. This is because option pricing is based on the Mean Absolute Deviation of the underlying, not the Standard Deviation. MAD=√[(2/π)*σ]≈0.79788σ. Your example actually shows this as well: * SPY @ 671 * ATM Straddle worth $15 Checking the options chain you can see that 656 P has a delta of -0.23 and 686 C has a delta of 0.18. Total absolute delta: .41 If you use the correct math: 15 * 1.25 = 18.75 Thats puts you at the between 653 P and 654 P with a delta of 0.2 and 691 C with a delta of .08 for a total absolute of 0.28 0.28 is quite a bit closer to 0.32 than your 0.41 is.

SohndesRheins

I expect a red premarket, pump and dump in the first 45 minutes, crazy pump in the late morning to midday, and then a slight sell-off in the afternoon and sideways in the last hour to result in a slightly green day, something like 677-679 for SPY and whatever the equivalent is for SPX, 6800?

SohndesRheins

I bought a SPY March 20th right at close on Friday. Hard to say if Monday will be green and the two days of theta sucks, but the drop in the last half hour was too much to pass up and I think it's reasonable to expect a bounce back above 680/6800 this week. SPY is way below the Bollinger band and that applies to SPX also. I know TA isn't gospel, but an index is less volatile than a single stock and in my opinion it was hard to justify not jumping in at such a low price.

seekChristnow

Thank you for the tip. How do you manage to find a delta difference of .20? I’m struggling to find anything .10 or over in SPY options. Are you using a large spread width?

seekChristnow

Thank you for this! But I’m curious how is it possible to get such a large net delta? For clarification I’m mainly trading SPY options and the best net delta I can see is typically like .08. Even if I use a $20 spread width I’m not seeing anything like .30-.40 net delta.

DCrebuilds

Should've bought more SPY puts (sigh)

SovietPower777

I think SPY is going to slightly recover on Sunday night and then rail coasters again

iamatoad_ama

Will SPY dip to 650?

I_am_Nerman

I didn't get gas but I bought USO, VIX calls & SPY, QQQ puts. For some reason, people still want to believe "nothing ever happens" even after liberation day.

No-Improvement3164

Other than the moving averages the only support I see on SPY is 650. Below that is no man’s land. 🤔

MadSkyGlider

2020-2030 might be the most eventful decade of our lives ! BUT SPY WILL BE FLAT

cbusoh66

So OpenAI's Robotics head quits because the Pentagon plans to use "lethal autonomy" robots without human authorization. Yeah, we're so fucked, eventually the robots will gain ASI and gun us all one by one. And you all worry about VIX and SPY???

Specialist_Exam_8433

Fuck it, let's ball. Buying SPY 700C 1 month out at open on Monday.

Muted-Celery7948

All in on $SPY puts tomorrow

AvocadoPurees

Even without Iran, its still pretty difficult to convince me SPY 5y chart looks good to go long

Basis_404_

The whole SPY is starting to show a bearish reversal pattern. I don’t know what’s gonna turn that around. What’s there to really get people excited about to get them to pile back on like it’s May 2025 again?

Bloated_Plaid

I can’t tell if it’s satire or not, you really needed your dad to tell you to put your money into SPY?

CapriKitzinger

Nice man. Been selling call credit spreads expiring next 1-5 days on the SPY.

Pereise1

SPX would be like 13k. SPY would have been like 1.3k. Index was lower at the time.

CapriKitzinger

The best thing you can do is sell Cash Secured Puts on inverse indexes. There’s so many ways to make money. Start selling CSPs on the SVIX. Start selling next day expiring call credit spreads on the SPY or SPX. Sell CSPs on CORD. There’s absolutely no reason to sit and watch. This is THE time to sell options. You want the Vix high. Collect that premium ladies and germs. But some TSLZ shares. Start shorting the darn market.

Rude_Assistance_4386

100k by Monday, SPY 710 easyyyy

big-papito

My SPY shorts are going to benefit. Next question.

big-papito

Checks SPY from October... "Bull market?"

Historical-Cost1444

!banbet $SPY -1% 2d

SohndesRheins

Selling a covered call gives you a credit, and the joke is that SPY keeps diving every time it gets close to $700, meaning you will never have to sell your shares at $700 and can keep selling calls until the heat death of the universe to make money.

LasyKuuga

I don’t mind SPY crashing But this job market and imminent inflation is scaring me

_Rexfest_

!banbet SPY 2% 2D

EnginrA

SPY calls Monday?

Black_Label_36

My instinct tells me to sell and buy lower, but that never works. I've never managed to time the market successfully, so I just buy more when it drops significantly and for some things like SPY I get a long dated call near the money. Usually pays off.

moyismoy

I sold my spy because I figured the jobs report was going to be bad u sold your SPY because you thought Iran could lock down Oil for more than a week. We are not the same.

Mysterious_Bit3542

!banbet SPY +2% 7d

EntrepreneurOld7858

If you're letting Iranian propaganda accounts scare you into thinking we're in a bearish market after SPY is down a whole 1.5% YTD: You deserve to stay poor

StonkMarketApe

I was admiring this the other day, it is looking quite heavy. Wouldn't be surprised to see 500s again if this war drags on...from there SPY 420 may not be a meme again..I mean we hit 477 not even a year ago.

ihopethisworksfornow

“Everyone’s bearish so it will pump” doesn’t always pan out. Look at the daily threads leading up to the Covid crash. Steady buildup of bears, then overwhelming bearishness when shit really started to hit the fan. This was *prior* to the real crash. Like if this pans out into a real correction/bear market I’m not safe feeling we’ve bottomed until I see large numbers of people buying like SPY 500P and ludicrous shit like that

Weak-Equal-9084

So SPY ATH next week?

Basis_404_

The year chart of SPY is a rounded top pattern and it’s pretty wild an entire index is showing a rounded top

shbk

My SPY 1DTEs are beyond cooked

DiamondG331

I completely adjusted all of my positions so I have SPY 3/10, 3/11, 3/16. IWM 3/11, DIA 3/13. About 15-20 on each. Rolled my short calls strike from around $696 to $689 and short puts from $673 to $662. Had to adjust more this week than previous weeks but still no losses. Recovery periods where the underlying will blow through your short calls are more likely than declines. I lost a lot last year on QQQ, just kept going up and I was mostly only trading credit spreads not condors. If you setup 3-5dte condors and expect to roll in a day or two even for small profits it will work almost always. Don’t hold until expiration, and don’t get greedy with 0-1dte options.

Organic-Lie4759

I get the feeling sometimes the SPY 700 crowd are the same ones that have GME $259 bags still.

092Casey

Liberation Day 2.0. SPY 650 by 4am early morning. Then, nice recovery to 670.

092Casey

Cash Gang unite! ✊️ 90% Cash going for rug pull dippity dippity dip buying all week.  SPY 520-550 here we come! Thanks 🥭 

soad1331

Can't wait until I'm bagging groceries at 80 to buy a SPY call that is going to change it all.

ProblemOk4641

Oil go up, SPY go down, all other stocks go down.

TheAncient1sAnd0s

It's just a dead Iraqi schoolgirl bounce. /s For those who don't know (probably 75% of this sub) a dead-cat bounce is when a downtrend temporarily reverses course. The downtrend you should be seeing is American stocks (SPY, QQQ) versus foreign stocks (VXUS, CQQQ) ever since Nov 2024.

DicLord

He's not actually incurring that much risk. Yes selling naked options can be very dangerous, but those are reasonable strikes. The 3/16 have a greater than %99 chance of expiring worthless. SPY is not losing 130 points in 9 days. The 7/31 puts will be fine too. That would require a %25 drop in 4 months. Could it theoretically happen? I suppose, but short of a world catalyst it's unlikely. Even if he were to get assigned.. not really a big deal you sell the shares and lose the difference. SPY rarely moves more than %1 per day. On average it only moves more than %2 for 11.5 trading days per year. He collected greater than $500 in premium. So it would have to hit $490 per share for him to even start losing money The leaps though.. ya I wouldn't sell them unless he wants to own shares

Inevitable_Pin7755

Yeah you’re probably overthinking it a bit. SPY and VOO track the same index so performance is basically identical long term. The main difference is just the expense ratio and how people use them. A lot of traders prefer SPY because of the liquidity and options market, while long term investors often lean toward VOO since the fees are a bit lower. But holding SPY long term isn’t some big mistake either. Most of the time the bigger factor is just staying invested consistently rather than switching between nearly identical funds. I actually write about simple long term investing and avoiding overcomplicating things in my newsletter too if you’re interested. It’s linked in my profile.

meifx

Agree. When you remove all of the annotations, the SPY is clearly bending Lower.

8yba8sgq

If the spx was 2000 points lower in September I wouldn't be surprised. But I also wouldn't be surprised if the Fed started buying the SPY directly to stabilize markets. Everything about this market is smoke and mirrors.

Gom_KBull

**SPY shareholders** SPY going down Dollar going down 🫵 are getting financially spitroasted in real time. 🤡🤡🤡

smohyee

I think of it like this: I had a 0.45 contract on a $1 spread, so earned $45 to risk $55, as to whether SPY would move away from that nice psychologically round 675 number at some point. You offer a blackjack comparison. When you bet in blackjack, do you get to watch hands change for the next 6 hours with the opportunity to profit anytime by exiting on a winning hand? The 50/50 odds are for a runaway change in price, which render that benefit moot. But when it chops, the odds of profit are a lot higher, and you're actually playing yourself, not the odds.

Ragebait_Destroyer

I would tell OP to invest in individual stocks, as there's some really good beaten down stocks, not SPY. I don't know how anyone can get bullish on broad market over next few years

stringtheory28

That is a very good point. Plenty of people are only sharing their wins and we don’t know how many accounts they blew up to get there as opposed to what that money would have been just sitting in SPY. Maybe my point is that it doesn’t have to be all or nothing. There’s a gray area where it can be a part of your toolbox. Not everyone has to be charging their crystals under the moonlight. Forgive me, but I really don’t know much about quants.

NVDAismyg0d

VIX at $30 and SPY -2% from ATH. You should be buying calls. VIX can go to $100 and spy will only be down 3%. Imagine what happens when VIX goes down 50% in 3 weeks😏😏😏

DriftWoodBarrel

My SPY calls are so fucked.

cannythecat

banbet SPY 700 end of week.

Murky_Analysis_9429

\- Tariffs. \- Strait of Hormuz closed. \- Several oil refineries destroyed in the middle east, taking 2-7 years to repair. \- The rest of the oil and gas facilities have been shutdown and would take 2 months or more to start again and will never be able to be at their peak production. \- EU and Asian countries oil and gas cut off, they're going to be dealing with the worst inflation crisis in history. \- Oil hitting $100-$200 a barrel next week (worse than 2022 which is the reason for the current inflation crisis). It would take many months for it to go back to $60 \- Potentially boots on the ground soon with this war lasting past spring. BUT TACO TRUMP DUUUR. SPY manages to hit $700 next week.

Country_Gravy420

Iran surrendered to all Middle East countries! 🥭 asking for surrender. SPY 700 Monday

dogefool88

I have been proven wrong by jobs data. I was pretty sure that SPY will dance between 680 and 690 throughout the year. It fell well below 680. Have a feeling it has room to drop more

p_didy68

SPY Straddle has entered the chat. lol

d33p7r0ubl3

I bought SPY FDs at the same time. Difference is I let the position get stopped out at breakeven instead of taking profits 😞. Good job

No-Improvement3164

What’s the chances SPY and QQQ test the April lows from last year?

p_viljaka

You think SPY going to drop to 555 in 10 days, about -17% ? HIlarious 🤔

Ambitious_Hyena_101

$SPY Today closed at a critical level. I will watch the candles and if I catch him Im taking dumb ass calls on mondays

Late-Celebration-260

SPY is not one to learn with! Especially 3 contracts if I read that right!

WilzonFizk

$300 by end of year and then solid growth that beats the compound annual growth rate of SPY for the next 5 years is my target. I think GTA VI is not priced in properly and it will outperform analyst expectations.

SouthNice7324

SPY will bounce back to 680 on Monday to shake out puts. If you have the chance to exit long positions then, take it before the big drop

pmotiveforce

I got SPY straddles for next Fri. Not gonna get me rich but I should be able to make at least 20% almost guaranteed. Worked out last week... I am a ber but this garbage can go either way for a while, fake fraud garbage might pop it back up for a bit.

IndependentUsual7444

Probably increasing the intensity of the attacks over the weekend. If it doesn't go well oil will cruise through 100 and SPY will hit 650

theipd

Wow this happened to me this week with 0DTE SPY on Wednesday. I was super pissed because I let it expire but they only closed one end of the trade leaving the other half open which gained. So I ended up losing money in the after hours. If they hadn’t closed the put side less than 15 seconds before the close I would have ended up with a gain of premium. Instead all gains got gathered up in fees (“broker assisted” trade). This was in a small account so I wasn’t too stressed but I won’t be doing that again. Robinhood has a tendency of closing out by sweep in the final hour. A drag if you’re trying to day trade for a day or two since all of the premium dries up in the final hour. Good luck with your future trades and thanks for sharing.

poopy_wizard132

SPY to $350?

Equivalent-Tip-3084

Top SPY Holdings by Weight (Approximate as of March 2026) NVIDIA Corp (NVDA): ~7.5% - 7.6% Apple Inc (AAPL): ~6.5% - 6.7% Microsoft Corp (MSFT): ~4.9% - 5.2% Amazon.com Inc (AMZN): ~3.4% - 3.6% Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL): ~3.0% Broadcom Inc (AVGO): ~2.5% - 2.6% Meta Platforms Inc (META): ~2.4% Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG): ~2.4% Tesla Inc (TSLA): ~1.9% Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK.B): ~1.5%  State Street Global Advisors  +7

Sweaty_Platypus69

I go conservative.. SPY will only drop -8% for the year.. QQQ? Yea.. -15% is not too far fetched.. BAG 7 is the theme for 2026.

JohnMackeysBulge

SPY 700 by Friday. All news is good news.

MaxwellSmart07

Who’s talking about tech? I chose SPY as a proxy for the stocks market. Unless there is a V-shape recovery, the time money does not make money is lost money.

kananishino

So we going back to SPY 600?

No-Improvement3164

SPY first close below 100dma?

TomatoSpecialist6879

When in doubt, just buy SPY and QQQ leaps. Never be impatient, never let missed gains affect you, and never play alternative stocks. People playing BULL were looking for another HOOD miracle, you're years away from BULL pulling a HOOD level run up. If you believe in it, buy leaps. CHWY on the other hand is a stagnant company, no idea why you played it except if you mistaken p&d bots here as real people. Warsh is the only retard who thought rates weren't high enough during the GFC back in 2008, he either sold his soul or he's about to pull off a heist to secure the Fed chair then go back to being a full inflation hawk. Unless you're a ber, pray it's the first one.

WingedScapula420

I'm glad the Robinhood prediction market allows me to short Timothee Chalamet instead of SPY.

AnotherDegenerateFK

SPY 666 is not coincidental 

Imaginary-Writer-125

Despite the blood red I feel that this time is different I don’t feel like I am at risk of losing much or anymore, probably because sentiments have changed I am comfortable with holding this time, unlike any day in February Seems like every bad news is almost over, and everything else is bullish SPY will easily recover next week

TomatoSpecialist6879

You have to be legitimately retarded to fail options in 2020 lmao, $300 in SPY otm weeklies every week would net you at least $1500 by Wed just because the printer just went brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Impressive-Mud-3362

I have never seen SPY options being this expensive, market makers pricing in some fucked up shit

gnanwahs

I'm yearning for SPY -8% day is that so hard?

ihopethisworksfornow

4AM Monday morning (1PM in Tehran) Mango tweets that the new Supreme Leader of Iran is Kid Rock, broadcasts a video of him playing a concert live in Tehran to thousands of people just fuckin loving it because they’ve never been to a concert before, market rallies 30% in a day Kid Rock overdoses on opium within 24 hours, insurgents coup the Kid Rock regime, SPY returns to 684.

cannythecat

Anybody retire from selling SPY 700 calls.

ShitpostSulthan

believe it or not.. SPY new all time highs next week.

MindlessExit2541

The basics would be SPY And overall ETFs basically a basket of stocks For degens which is gambling stocks it's like GME explosive stocks BYND etc etc

dljmonkeyboiz

Ya’ll voted for this dude twice? I got SPY 700 calls to sell to you. I know what I got. No lowballers.

ihopethisworksfornow

>SPY: down 2.69% on the month >**PHYSICAL CORN**: Up 7.8% on the month BUY PHYSICAL CORN

_ThisDickAintFree_

I got SPY calls for Friday. I'm exhausted from flipping these puts.

External_Pattern9950

the question assumes you can time the market, which decades of data say you cant. people asked this same question at SPY 300, 400, 450, 500, 600. every time it felt expensive. every time buying and holding beat waiting for a dip. the only exception is if you need the money within 2-3 years, in which case stocks are the wrong vehicle regardless of price level. if your horizon is 10+ years just keep buying on schedule and stop looking at valuations as a reason not to invest.

PristineDiscount3208

is this only SPY? Or does it aggregate other tickers mentioned?

TheKnightIsForPlebs

You ruined it. Now it is on WSB so the tool needs to inverse itself. Ergo we are right back to WSB. In short: 0dte SPY calls monday you regards

092Casey

!banbet SPY 650 next week

SpiritedVoice6248

SPY finally broke out of the 680-696 range to the downside. My puts shall print

-PunsWithScissors-

It’s a better proxy for the market than SPY.

LordCorgi

Friendship ended with SPY, WAR is best friend now.

092Casey

Reminder: If you invested in SPY or most indexes on October 6th, which is 5 months ago, you'd be at 0% right now. But taco likes to brag about 401k's.  Maybe Bessent and Nutlick will manipulate it back up on Monday like they've been ever since every time it lands here.

booose6

I turn 30 today and made a dick ton of money on SPY puts. Going to delete a few beers and do it all again next week