SPY

Healthy_Effort1415

I use yfinance in python to collect data on the options chains daily at close. I don't do SPY but my understanding is it is available. The only downfall is yfinance doesn't have greeks. Those you'd need to do some calcs based on OHLCV data. I was recently looking to add Delta into my parameters and found how to calculate it manually. Since this is all handled in Excel it's not too out there.

Global_Desk9110

I should have waited to buy my puts today, oh well. SPY still -10% tomorrow

pmoO0

These Options are reacting very suspiciously. Yesterday I hedged my SPY calls with 2:1 puts. Meaning I own twice as many calls than puts. My puts now lost more money although spy barely moved upwards.

Jake0024

You think there's a higher chance of SPY going down (on what timescale?) than a single company (a member of SPY, no less) failing?

Select-Young-5992

What else would you get a 7% interest from? To me putting it in SPY seems like much bigger risk.

Derpy_Mc_Burpy

What will do shit is if warsh announces more than 1 additional hike. Also I dont think the hike is fully baked into the stock market yet. All this threat about a hike and SPY is only ~2% down from ath

annonimity2

Just buy more VOO, overwhelming majority of people who play the stock market make less than they would have just holding VOO or SPY

Sock_Deep

Will my $999c on SPY print 😍

CantaloupeSea48

no,no,no SPY-wrong direction

Capable-Commission-3

How do you define “high risk”? If you define it as the odds of it going down, going down relative to what? At this point Nvidia is 10% of SPY/Q’s. If Nvidia goes down, so does the whole market. Any stock can go down. Even Berkshire dropped like 50% in 2008 even though they spent years preparing for it. So high risk to me is more the odds of it not going higher. But then again higher relative to what? The odds of Nvidia becoming a $10T company within five years seems slim right now, but five years ago the very idea of any company being worth $5T seemed ridiculous. If that’s “high risk”, then maybe.

CantaloupeSea48

guess who bought 757 calls when it was under 757. I broke my cherry on 3ODTE on SPY> But the opening bell is so far away lol

Delicious_Put_5857

XSP is overnight 1/10 SPX options. SPY is retard cousin bilo

unhappyreach_

Donny gets his rate cut, SPY squeezes, and my peen grows 3 inches

Delicious_Put_5857

mfs love buying 10 SPY MGC MNQ MES MCL instead of 1 real contract :kek:

PatientAd9394

A record of over 20 billion dark pool inflows was registered on SPY, IVV and QQQ on close today. Whales are not buying if the market dumps

DryPin4537

"really good odds" isn't a number. Do you have timestamped out-of-sample predictions, with the losers included, and a hit rate against just holding SPY over the same periods? Because a technical backtest that looks great in-sample is the easiest thing in the world to build, and it means nothing until it's forward tested. I'll look at the site when there's something to check it against.

Cav829

I have heard absurd things the last few days like the market priced in 4 rate hikes. I think if we got 4 rate hikes, we'd be at SPY 550, so Imma gonna doubt that one.

paoloathem

I know how SPX works but if a spread is breached enough or fully, the money is gone (minus the credit) versus SPY where OP would have shares. Either way, as the old saying goes, picking up pennies…

KMPItXHnKKItZ

I lived through it too, I was in ninth grade and already had 10,000 shares of SPY

longGERN

1% rate cut and Zimbabwe inflation, SPY moon's

version-two

During the AI Boom? Legit easy mode. I'm not saying things haven't pumped or been buoyed by this mongoloid, but he fucking nerfed & reset the market last year, only to inflate the cost of everything & lose a war. And S&P is up like 75% in 4 yrs I think? Mitch's corpse could've smiled at the ghosts he's seeing & SPY would likely be in the $800s.

free_z_e

SPY 800 tomorrow??

Beginning-Fig-9089

pump overnight, tank at the open, V by 10AM, dump at 2PM, and recover after he starts saying some stuff about guardrails n shit. !banbet SPY +0.67% 1D

paoloathem

OP is gambling so he’s probably better off with SPY cause they’ll have shares if it goes ITM. It’s even worse they don’t know of SPX.

lwsnicholas

Hey I'm looking to write some backtests on selling OTM monthly puts on SPY too, may I know what data sources you're using for the option chain/greeks?

Even_Topic2494

I do not like NKE, or any other stock for that matter. People freak out if the market drops 1% or if it drops for a few days straight. Like there is a perception that stocks are a magic money tree. Few recall that SPY was flat for almost 15 years. Shoeshine boy effect for years now. Teenagers daytrading (and gambling) Politicos trading stocks. Stocks making more than their dayjobs. Jobs are for suckers. Degrees are for suckers. Just gamble instead. Free money hack genius. Wealth without production is the ideal. Stocks only go up. despite big disparity between individual stocks down 50-98% from peak vs. indicies near all time highs. Market as retirement wealth machine, but never as potential retirement destroying machine. Markets down 50-80% in dotcom & GFC. 8% annual but ignoring 10-20 year flat periods that occur. Buy the dip vs. falling knife mindset. Can't lose mindset. Never sell stocks to pay debt. Paying off a 6% mortgage is "stupid". Market pays more. Can't lose. Risk either does not exist, or is heavily discounted Not owning stocks is reckless. Valuations. Vibe market. The bigger the red, the more the green (Calls, it is) IPO cashouts with 80%+ crash bagholders. Wild claims by CEOs. Space data, planet colony, flying robo cars, etc Circular financing. Enron vibes. Leverage. 3x, 5x, 10x ETFs, even for single stocks. Inverse ETFs. 0DTE options casino market. People going from $50k to $3mm in a single year. (yea, survivorship bias) Rotating bubble sectors. EV, Space, nuclear, weed, robot, rare earth, quantum, chips, AI, psych, etc Alternative bubbles? Sports betting, sports collectibles, Pokemon, etc. I'm out. 100% into 5% Treasury

financiallythriving

SPY needs to retest 100 before the bull run continues

Ninja_Cooter

Don’t worry guys when $SPY hits $605 tomorrow they will close the market for the rest of the day

drpro123

I just checked my trading history. My SPY is up 50% from 2 years ago. Everything else combined is up 8%. I should stop trading.

financiallythriving

99.89% chance of SPY -20% tomorrow

Bravadette

Welp. "**My call: a quarter-point hike tomorrow, roughly 85–90% likely.** A hold is maybe 10%, and a half-point hike is under 5%. The more important prediction is how he'll message it: open-ended ("until we're confident"), not "one and done." First, a correction: I was wrong last time. That file is named "28_aug," so there's no mismatch. ### What the words show I pulled Warsh's own words out of all four documents (reporters' questions removed) and counted marker words per 1,000 words. | Marker | Jun 17 | Jul 14 | Jul 29 | Aug 28 | |---|---|---|---|---| | "Task force" | 4.6 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | | Tighten/act/restrictive | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | | Inflation/prices | 7.6 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 12.5 | | Hedges (unscripted Q&A) | 9.6 | — | 11.7 | — | What that means: - **The dodge disappeared.** In June, "we've got a task force for that" was his way out of hard questions. By Jackson Hole he barely mentions them and says outright they have "no bearing" on current decisions. - **Action words tripled** from June to August, and inflation talk steadily crowded out everything else. - **July was his most evasive moment.** His hedging peaked in that Q&A, and he repeatedly denied pausing ("nothing inertial," "not a pause," "not watchful waiting"). People insisting they aren't doing the thing they're visibly doing is a classic sign of discomfort. He was defending a hold he didn't fully believe in. One caveat: the counts are small (the tighten row is about 3 uses in June versus 8 in August), and scripted speeches read differently from live Q&A. Treat the table as supporting evidence. The logic below is the stronger case. ### Why the logic almost forces a hike **1. He closed every exit.** Each dovish argument for holding got shut down, one by one: - "Policy is restrictive" became "hard pressed" to call conditions restrictive. - "Inflation cooled this summer" became "better than expected" prints that don't change the trend. - "Hiring is weak" was explained away as slow labor-supply growth. - "Wages are tame" was dismissed as not a reliable predictor. - "AI productivity allows lower rates" was his own pre-Chair view, now walled off from current policy. Nobody spends a whole speech removing the reasons to do nothing unless they're about to do something. **2. The July hold was explicitly temporary.** At Jackson Hole he described July as the majority choosing to "await new information in the intermeeting period... before deciding." That's a deferral, not a verdict. Three members already dissented for tightening in July. **3. His own test is failing on his own numbers.** His standard is inflation moving to 2% "clearly and at sufficient speed." Six-month PCE (4.1%) running above twelve-month (3.7%) means inflation is going the wrong way, not just slowly. **4. A hold would undo the tightening he took credit for.** In July his defense was that the bond market had already tightened for the Fed. Skipping a hike that markets now treat as near-certain would pull yields down and ease conditions, the exact opposite of his stated goal. A hold defeats his own argument. **5. Commitment psychology and credibility incentives both point the same way.** He has said "we will deliver" publicly at every appearance. The research on public commitments (Cialdini) says people act to stay consistent with them, especially once reputation is at stake. The economics literature (Rogoff's "conservative central banker," Barro–Gordon) says new central bankers have the strongest incentive to prove toughness early. He's a Trump appointee whose independence is questioned, and he told Jackson Hole that 65 months of inflation "sits squarely with the central bank." A third hold would contradict three months of his own words. **Why not 50?** Every document rejects urgency and fine-tuning: "no magic wand," not "in days or weeks." His temperament is a steady grind, not shock and awe. ### Decoder for tomorrow's presser - **"Discipline," "work to do," "underlying trend not improved":** more hikes are coming, even without saying so. - **"Markets have done work," "observe," "watch the effects":** he's setting up a pause in October or December. - **Mentions of housing, agriculture, or recent-graduate strain:** a dovish hedge; he's building the case for stopping. - **Task-force deflections come back:** he's avoiding the question of what comes next. - **Dissents:** I'd expect 1–3, now likely from the dovish side. Hawks who wanted a hike in July got what they wanted. ### What this means for your trade The hike itself is priced in. The risk is the messaging. If he repeats his open-ended "until we're confident" standard, markets will read more hikes into it. That's less of a relief rally than a clean "one and done," which argues for patience on the SPY call re-entry. Remember that he reads rallies and low volatility as evidence policy isn't tight enough. This is a probability read from the documents, not a certainty, and not financial advice.

financiallythriving

98.89% of SPY +3% tomorrow

Wise-Parsnip5803

Assuming you bet it all, then one wrong flip and it's back to zero. Just timing the SPY 752 puts and using whole options for tomorrow based on 5 minute averages, went from 100 to 500.

rubsdikonxpensivshit

So let’s say you could predict every move on SPY and you scalped all the swings that lasted for at least 5 minutes or more. About how long to you thing it’s take to turn $100 into a million on 0DTE?

Shoganai_Hito

i paper handed spy calls earlier this year (early Apr) that ran from $3k to $48k within a few days… they were like 3 weeks out so I had plenty of time. That was during the SPY run to $700. Sold them for a $50 loss; made some good gainz since but that one still stings

AnimeOrDie

Schizos say that Covid was population control, but the real control will be tomorrow when SPY ends flat and exterminates 0dte call and put holders

Bravadette

The fucking SPY 5 yr chart man. I keep mentioning every other day here but it looks so fucked.

Sidney1973

I bought puts on SPY.

Odd-Block-2998

Prediction: SPY +0.07% after rate hike tomorrow to make all calls and puts expired worthless.

Slowhand1971

I only trade SPY and I only use market orders. Was OPs order put in right after a news event, which would change my opinion ? (I don't trade around news predicting so I don't get collected in a bad spread).

diefy7321

Last midterm SPY was down -15% by September with a generational bull run Biden was handed

diefy7321

SPY is up 11% ytd on a midterm year you fucking retard lmfao

99-Watermelons

I own CATL stocks . Just buy them on the Hong Kong stock exchange (HKEX) . Outside the USA electric vehicles and hybrids are typically 50% of new vehicle sales in most Western democracies. Sales continue to expand rapidly. The USA seems to lag because despite all the complaints; gas and diesel is typically still 50-75% cheaper in the USA of what people in most countries pay. CATL dominate global battery tech and sales . I've owned a small business in China now for 26 years and have been buying goods from manufacturers in China and selling in my home country during that time. I'm a regular traveller to China to trade shows. In the past few years I've seen EV's in China move from a curiosity to absolutely dominanting the market. It's easy to see the future for the world when driving around in China where in about 10 years I've seen gas and diesel cars become dinosaurs . I noted just this week than EV's and Hybrids now outsell internal combustion engine sales in Australia. I use Interactive Brokers( IBKR) online platform to trade stocks all around the world. I've found it's better value to buy stocks direct from their main listing exchange than buy the "American" version on a North American market plus it seems only a matter of time before the Ai bubble bursts and USA stocks crash massively. Virtually all S&P ETF's ROTH's 401k's are dominated by just 7 tech stocks , so even if folks have SPY or QQQ their 401k's are seriously exposed to Ai stock Using IBKR; it's easy to buy stocks all over the world. There'd 2-3 other globally large online brokerages you can use that are reputable; I settled on IBKR because of the range of financial instruments I could purchase . About 90% of my stocks are not in my home country and buying a stock in a different country is no different than buying in my home country. I have stocks in Switzerland , Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan Korea , UK and Hong Kong exchanges . The process is identical . Set up an account on the platform, send some $ and then select the exchanges you want to buy stocks from ( takes about 8-12 hours to add a new exchange ) and then just enter the stock code and your bid price I just sold some GLD ( gold) stocks on the NYSE as rather than "paper" gold I want to buy some physical gold ; it took 4 days from the time I sold the stocks for the money to transfer through to my home country bank account . The delay was because I hadn't set up my bank account to send funds back out of my IBKR account to my personal bank account. Once my banking details were set up in IBLR's system it took about 4 hours for the money to hit my account.

SenorCrawdaddy

That one guy who posted about his accidental YOLO on SPY puts probably made bank today

thenorthernwhiteboy

Well I’m stuck with 75 IWM Oct 300s and 100 SPY Oct 800s. What could go wrong. At least I have NOC calls to hedge…

Dude_HaHa

I'll become a bul at SPY 420.

jmc774

Big day for the new CEO of SPY tomorrow

Slowhand1971

SPY is the most liquid option in the market, the bid/ask spreads often negligible. No way the bid/ask moved $10 after putting in the market sell order. There is something wrong on this fill.

No_Presentation9490

the kind of fear buffett meant by be greedy when others are fearful is when SPY is down 40%. not when one AI stock is down 10%

D3AtHpAcIt0

happened last time, remember that 3% no news SPY day that kicked off the recovery after the iran mess

mayorolivia

Let me write an article that SPY could jump 30%. Anyone who pays attention to this nonsense is a dotard.

D3AtHpAcIt0

if they raise 0.75% seeing that -3.5% SPY day will make you regret that quickly. Bonds are fake and for old people

wyudtix

Bols still haven’t realized the long overdue market correction has already begun. SPY 670 EOY

slyrz

SPY puts for tomorrow. FED crashing the market first thing in the morning.

No_Presentation9490

QQQ and SPY are both under their 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages. this is a selloff

No_Presentation9490

When kevin warsh hikes rates, everyone who expects the huge market crash will get crickets instead. they will panic and cover their shorts and puts. This will cause a massive rally in SPY & QQQ until end of day. Thursday will then gap down 1-1.5%.

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 0W - 1L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $767.50 (above) | $758.03 | +1.2% | 23h 60m |

Send_me_ur_bootyhole

!banbet SPY +1.25% 1d

504Kris

SPY $760c’s for tomorrow.

Independent-Tree-985

!banbet SPY +1.25% 1d

CUbuffGuy

Opening .6% up tomorrow on SPY, and ending 1.3% up. Sorry I don't make the rules.

Austin_Destroyer

"Rate hike is priced in. The rate cut that we are going to get will send SPY to 800." --Wayne Gretzky

Careless-Place-170

imo if the vibes get sour / we get a dip on SPY or a few red days or AI panic it can easily touch < 150

Sober_Alcoholic_

IT will rip in the morning, then when the announcement happens it will "tank" back to opening prices. Everyone gambling options loses (if you're playing QQQ, SPY that is). You're better off picking a single ticker, I chose ORCL today and that worked great.

financiallythriving

SPY 600 tomorrow by the way

Flat-Focus7966

SPY 780 in 7 days......

WordsHappenedHere

Which is why I am seeing mostly straddles in the option sweeps. Huge $20+ million orders for straddles on SPY NVDA and others. Big money knows a big move is coming. They dont seem to know the direction either. If we could end this pointless war I have no doubt we would run to SPY 800 quickly. Problem is trump is an idiot and the situation seems to be deteriorating rapidly. Market seems hesitant to sell because we all expect it to just end.

Ok_Wealth_3433

SPY’s forward P/e is well below the 10 year average and well off of the current P/e. SPY has “crashed” and will continue to decline without people even knowing. SPY 800 EOY, and with an even lower P/e (crash)

jrex035

It is crazy that despite everything, the market remains remarkably flat. QQQ and SPY flat since May, DOW flat since June. Just chopping along rotating sectors but going nowhere fast. Feels like a coiled spring, similar to late 2025 into early 2026. Last time it broke to the upside in late March with indices gaining 20+% in a matter of weeks. This time? Guess we'll find out sooner or later

tropicalia84

Bears keep getting -0.3% days on SPY and can't even keep up with IV crush lmaoooo SPY hasn't had a 1% or greater drop in 34 straight trading sessions

No-Magazine-4717

Just get SPY down to $200 and get this over with

financiallythriving

Crazy to think that SPY will hit 400 next year

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 0W - 4L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $775.00 (above) | $757.86 | +2.3% | 23h 60m |

Ambitious_Snow840

Tomorrow: 25bps raise. SPY and QQQ actually go up .35% on relief the fed is intervening to control inflation. 10 year yields go DOWN .2%. Data centers down 2% - 4%.

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/mcbg47 (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▲ | $760.72 → $762.71 | +0.3% | 1d | Lost |

itslikewoow

SPY calls

spacegrab

I'm more worried midterm, like 2-3 month range. With elections turmoil, AI bubbles, oil problems and Iranian drones, it's a perfect storm for a rug pull. Just bought some SPY puts 5 minutes before close 😂

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $764.25 (above) | $756.69 | +1.0% | 23h 60m |

TaoTeCha

!banbet SPY 1% 1d

Sufficient-Flan1565

SPY goes below 750 tmrw?!

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $749.20 (below) | $756.76 | -1.0% | 23h 60m |

Janubeary

!banbet SPY -1% 1d

Level_Counter3062

!banbet SPY -1% 1d

Ronniman

SPY CALLS 770! LFGGGGGG He aint hiking!

play37

SPY 770 tomorrow based on the pattern of stupid things happening in the world.

Beginning-Fig-9089

SPY look like a +3% day tomorrow

brokerthanbroker

SPY is currently ripping right now.

Commercial_Sound1448

If SPY hits a level 3 halt -20% and PUTs can't be sold, are you just screwed out of profits?

Commercial_Sound1448

If SPY hits a level 3 halt -20% and PUTs can't be sold, are you just screwed out of profits?

eboyuwue

SPY weeklies

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/english_fool (0W - 3L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $757.16 → $749.59 | -1.0% | 4h 53m | Lost |

PatientAd9394

Expecting a bounce tomorrow ngl. QQQ and SPY both hitting the lower bollinger bands

tropicalia84

SPY 33 sessions without a -1% drawdown

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 0W - 1L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $770.00 (above) | $757.00 | +1.7% | 23h 60m |

play37

!banbet SPY 770 1d

pmotiveforce

Straddles for Fri acquired on SPY. I don't know what the fucks happening, I already have some puts for Thu, but I expect some crazy shit so straddles should work either way.

financiallythriving

SPY -20% tomorrow

WSB-mods-are-

Why does it feel like SPY has gone fucking nowhere in 3 months

Moist_Chain_POL

will SPY hit 800 EOY? 😭😭😭

Valkorion335786

I also bought 780c for Monday out lmao My reasoning is that I've seen SPY pamp $20 3 days