SPY

Riddlfizz

Ah, that's right. Daily 0DTE ETF options (e.g. SPY) expire at 4:15 pm ET. But Cash-settled daily 0DTE index options (e.g. SPX) expire at the 4:00 pm ET close of regular trading hours. And, as you noted, future expirations of SPX options can typically be traded thru 4:15 pm ET (and beyond at some brokers). Relative to your initial post, not a definitive answer, but the closing 4:00 pm price of SPX isn't completely set in stone and remains subject to settlement. But an SPX option that expires/settles OTM is going to settle at $0 when all is said and done. If you're referring to (slightly) ITM options, those can/should be expected to be credited as cash.

byfrax

So what you're actually saying with this graph is you could actively tradd it to outperform SPY by a large margin.

ImSpezialDawg

I have a tough time scooping my nuts and buying when SPY/QQQ are still basically ATH

Hot_Hope_7011

Was planning to sell on Thursday and all sectors were up that day except MSFT dragged SPY down.

WarmCan3034

He can only afford 4 shares of SPY

InevitableAd2436

Put that amount in SPY if you don’t need it and stop gambling.

dangernext

Hey guys looks like Mango has not said a dam thing this weekend. 640 Q’s? 705 SPY? Priced in???

Ok_Cry7572

VIX rose nearly 17% in the month of January, with S&P500 producing a positive return. That's a pretty large amount of hedging activity where nothing happened. If nothing macro comes to pass soon, that gamma unwind sends $SPY $QQQ higher

paranoidindeed

PE in the SPY higher than Microsoft is insanity

du_duhast

But MSFT is in the S&P500... The law of averages means that 250 of those companies will exceed SPY and 250 will perform worse.

Maestrosc

Because this is how you turn billions into trillions. You get the market to panic sell. You scoop the panic sellers and go long before rates change launches SPY To 10k. The goal is to leave most of the population behind and get so far ahead of them they are all basically slaves (even more so than we are already) This is how the hedge funds and the manipulators and controllers leave the rest of humanity behind.

wallstreetbets-ModTeam

Thanks for your submission! r/WallStreetBets is ultimately a community about making money through trading, and our conversations should shift around that. Politics are fundamentally intertwined with making money, and political actions almost always have an impact on financial markets. Still, we need to make sure that when we have these discussions, we're explicitly calling out the financial impacts of the politics we're discussing. Otherwise, the conversation can very easily veer off into flamewars and boring, unproductive, discussion. Here's an example of a political comment that doesn't offer any value: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. What a fucking idiot" Now compare it to this: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. It threatens the profit margins of oil companies because they will need to expand their OpEx. I have calls on Shell that are going to get decimated at open." The latter is significantly more interesting and offers a great jumping point into market related discussion. Put succinctly: If you choose to start or engage in arguments about libtards or Nazis instead of making fun of their bad SPY long then you're in the wrong place and we'll show you the door. If you're not sure if your content is political, it probably is, and there's probably a better way to post it without making things weird. --- All that being said, we are here to help. We want to make it as easy as possible for you to post to our community. We have to balance this with making the subreddit interesting for our readers. If you need some guidance, don't hesitate to [reach out to modmail](https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) and we'll give you some pointers!

wallstreetbets-ModTeam

Thanks for your submission! r/WallStreetBets is ultimately a community about making money through trading, and our conversations should shift around that. Politics are fundamentally intertwined with making money, and political actions almost always have an impact on financial markets. Still, we need to make sure that when we have these discussions, we're explicitly calling out the financial impacts of the politics we're discussing. Otherwise, the conversation can very easily veer off into flamewars and boring, unproductive, discussion. Here's an example of a political comment that doesn't offer any value: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. What a fucking idiot" Now compare it to this: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. It threatens the profit margins of oil companies because they will need to expand their OpEx. I have calls on Shell that are going to get decimated at open." The latter is significantly more interesting and offers a great jumping point into market related discussion. Put succinctly: If you choose to start or engage in arguments about libtards or Nazis instead of making fun of their bad SPY long then you're in the wrong place and we'll show you the door. If you're not sure if your content is political, it probably is, and there's probably a better way to post it without making things weird. --- All that being said, we are here to help. We want to make it as easy as possible for you to post to our community. We have to balance this with making the subreddit interesting for our readers. If you need some guidance, don't hesitate to [reach out to modmail](https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) and we'll give you some pointers!

rupert1920

>To actually buy an option on futures requires crazy high margin or account balances. 100 shares of SPY is $69k. The march expiration $690 call is $1782. Two micro E-mini (MES) futures contract is 2x $34k = $68k for March - which is what we expect because that's the equivalent notional value to 100 shares of SPY. Two $6900 call options on that futures contract, with the same March 20th expiry, is 2x $930 = $1860, which is basically equivalent. It does not require "crazy high margin". On the contrary, because futures contracts use SPAN margin, to hold the same short positions on the two $6900 call options on MES requires only some $3500 of maintenance margin - compared to some $16k for shorting the one SPY call.

714trader

Futures Options are more capital efficient. It’s not crazy high margin needed. And you get tax 6040. Superior to say SPY options. Many people answering here probably never traded futures options.

TJMBeav

$5 SPY move times hundreds of contracts times 100 shares per equals: #***LUNCH MONEY***

KrabbyPattyCereal

To actually buy an option on futures requires crazy high margin or account balances. Additionally, think about it like this: Let’s say that you have a stock (or commodity) that is Price A because of a bunch of math. Now, imagine you run a first order derivative on that math (remember calculus?) to get the price of Future A. Finally, imagine running ANOTHER derivative on your already derived price to get Option Future A. If you took calculus, you’ll know that you can have many different equations and get the same derivative. With that being said, it’s kind of hard to predict the price of the derived product based on what the underlying does because it could do a ton of different things and still generate the same derived price. Think about when you’re watching SPY options and you’re like “man what the hell, why is my option not moving even though the underlying moved??”

Fun-Sundae4060

I can tell you’re an extremely inexperienced investor and not a trader whatsoever. You don’t even know basic vocabulary. I found a few rekt traders I replied to on this account. I had even more on my older account that was 7-8 years old. TSLA bear marries -2x TSLA as it skyrockets ☠️: https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/s/KoERk3dZXD TSLA bull marries TSLA stock as it goes down ☠️: https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLA/s/3GIMcoS4sR BTC bull marries BTC as it goes down ☠️: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/H7lMfJT2jr TQQQ bull misses out as TQQQ skyrockets ☠️: https://www.reddit.com/r/TQQQ/s/4BN8PGirld SPY bull misses out as SPY skyrockets ☠️: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/s/RLi47c5rUQ

MasterpieceLiving738

SPY +0.4% on the week?

TJMBeav

I'm normally 1m to 4m swing trader. I think all of the indexes, I play $SPY, are very very twitchy. Also short $SLV, and between the two I feel a strange vibe. FWIW, $SLV bet on houses money (mar 66 puts)

shadowzardpi

Chat here isn’t talking much about QQQ and SPY. Am I the only one who’s playing freakin 1-2 DTEs?

insel_goettin

Just leaps in all Mag 7 stocks, SPY and QQQ

tv2zulu

So that chart shows MSFT outperformed the Qs during the '22 tech winter. Dips occasionally very briefly below SPY performance, which is then followed by massive longer stretches of outperformance. Yeah, I'd say that's a bullish chart for MSFT if you want to judge just by that.

dogefool88

Crapto’s fight for survival underway. On a side note SPY 695 Monday

Ok_Advantage_8153

You're missing the point if you think "safety" is the overriding concern here. It's what has the biggest potential. The graph also tells you the answer to that and it ain't SPY.

Fun-Marionberry-2540

my own private thing. you can use [https://totalrealreturns.com/s/MSFT,AAPL,QQQ,SPY?start=2021-02-01](https://totalrealreturns.com/s/MSFT,AAPL,QQQ,SPY?start=2021-02-01)

chillermane

SPY is pretty risky right now with the way things are going with AI. The top few tech companies will just eat up more and more of the total market cap over time as robotics and AI become more advanced

gotcreme

No way MSFT is a safer investment than SPY

Fun-Marionberry-2540

It does not, but SPY has always given a higher dividend, although I will implement the total return feature and add a toggle.

CalebVanPoneisen

I’ve checked and you’d still have a higher return with SPY.

baconography

\> where else you planning to put the money? Foreign equities. Take a look at SPY vs. country ETFs (EWO, EWY, EWP, etc.) over the 2025 year.

Ok_Advantage_8153

That's certainly "A" data point. If I had money now and the only options were MSFT or SPY I wouldn't be putting my money in SPY.

Ill-Mastodon-9352

Corn derisking.. safety first. System broken. Monday SPY open 3% down?

Bassmaster2424

So like are we thinking the market is up Monday? I have some $SPY calls I’d prefer not to lose a ton of money on

PracticalAnywhere225

I think ppl just predicting based on bitcoin's dump. But I think BTC and SPY are decoupling now.

killainvest

!banbet SPY $695 7d

PracticalAnywhere225

Nope that's not a rugpull. Take a look at INTC's chart, that was a rugpull on an overpriced stock. SNDK was moving with SPY after it's gain. SPY was just cooling off a bit after reaching 7000. SNDK will definitely go to 1000 this year.

Accomplished-Club690

Break it down for me then go ahead. SPY being an HFT asset prevents TA from being useful because ..?

Former_Tomato9667

SPY calls, expiry and strike won’t matter

orangeyougladiator

SPY 705 on open. 708 peak in first 5. Sell everything. Chill.

LadderAdmirable

SPY and QQQ are still going to open green. Have seen this movie too many times before.

Waiting4Reccession

I don't own SPY and the last 2 years they just keep loading more garbage into it. Fucking doordash and carvana type shit.

Gom_KBull

If you are one of the concave brains here asking where SPY will be Monday, its going to stay hopping around the same fucking range below 700 like it has for months.

aftherith

SCHD beating SPY by 8% YTD. I didn't realize dividends were making that much of a comeback.

Specialist_Exam_8433

Just look at SPY, last couple months have just been an oscillating higher lows trend. We continue going up starting Monday.

orangeyougladiator

I mean SPY is almost guaranteed to pump. Idk about the rest of it

Extension-Change-441

SPY 700 this week then selloff to low 600s

Muted_Thought8382

Friendly reminder, last wknd bers went into a full blown frenzy about a total economic collapse. On Wednesday, SPY hit an intra day all time high 😂

katrav86

HEAR HEEAAAR!! why stop at 720 though? My price target this week for SPY is 780. And 800 by end of Feb!

orangeyougladiator

It’s like you guys forgot we actually went above 700 this week, if only for a few hours. Apple and meta had blowout earnings, and so did the downstream AI companies. The only speculative big tech left is GOOG and AMZN, both of which have earnings this week. I fully expect SPY 720 by Wednesday close, and if GOOG smashes it, it has a very real chance of being the highest valued company on the market. If you think they’re gonna sit this one out because of some dogshit crypto, dollar value, or Iran you’re wildly mistaken.

Impossible-Fun2027

Hanging man is bearish reversal Candle spotted on Thursday on SPY daily chart but the drop usually extends beyond the downward Candle Shadow. So we will drop even further on Monday

Impossible-Fun2027

Monday gonna be a Black Monday. Hanging man on daily chart on SPY

orangeyougladiator

SPY gonna open about 715 for reals

Several_Vanilla8916

SPY and get some rest

orangeyougladiator

SPY is closed

lipmanz

All financial podcasts “markets just keep going up, we are at all time highs!!” Nasdaq all time high was in October and SPY barely keeping pace with falling dollar ytd…bring on a real pump

No-Improvement3164

Yes it is. Microsoft dumped 12%. Start looking around. Equities dumped yet SPY only $6 off ATH. Nothing makes sense

StrictGuide2475

So gap up or gap down on SPY Monday? 

Old_Beyond_2095

$SPY Opens at $670 Monday

orangeyougladiator

So here’s what is going to happen if 🌽 doesn’t recover. Monday morning pre market all the leveraged 🌽 ETFS are going to get nuked, causing a cascade of liquidations meaning lots of portfolios will be force selling all their safe assets too (including SPY et all). This will spark fear with a “red” open but all those cheap limit sells are going to get snapped instantly by the big boys. Then the discounts will be ripe and we’ll moon shot to green by EOD.

ebfeebfe

Careful analysis of this sub's last 48 hours leads me to conclude that SPY will open +0.01% on Monday

shadowzardpi

So SPY and QQQ red on Monday?

Emilio___Molestevez

$SPY +.88% by Monday lunch just to rub it in cryptard faces

orangeyougladiator

SPY will not go down

SeveralBollocks_67

Reminder that SPY hit ATH twice last week and yall out here dooming over shitcoins

Vlisa

Gonna be 1.5% intraday swings on SPY just to end flat on Monday.

roke34442

I have dry powder for whatever happens on Monday. It seems obvious to me now that the $700 SPY calls I bought for Monday was a moonshot. But the weekend is not over yet. Pirates are invading Tampa today so maybe that will boost the market.

orangeyougladiator

The market has been building a spring loaded push since October. Monday could be the 720 SPY open, with attention being moved away from commodities and shit crypto.

Extension-Change-441

as a permaber ive already learned that nothing ever happens, even if the us strikes iran, SPY green on open

ReversingCloud

Volatility: Dow - 😴 SPY - 😐 QQQ - 🙂‍↔️ Bitcoin - 🫨 Gold/Silver - 💀💀💀

nvidia69420

SPY cooked or nah 😅

Old_Beyond_2095

OMG MY SPY PUTS ARE GONNA FUCKING PRINT NEXT WEEK. MARKETS ARE CRASHING HARD. Thank God

labowner85

You’re holding bag because you’re listening to consensus at a time of extreme valuations. Always look at the market independently. And stay out of extremely popular symbols as they fall hardest when the tide changes. It’s a good lesson learnt. I would advise to wait for the market to drawdown at least 10% before buying into it but then investing in SPY or VOO is a better choice.

vgamer0

On the 5Y chart, 🌽 is up about 100%, barely better than just buying $SPY, but with all the risk of 'fake digital number value disappearing in the blink of an eye'

WallofNarwhal

How are we feeling about SPY on Monday? My take: not good

christopheroptions

!banbet $SPY $400 2w

christopheroptions

!banbet $SPY $400 2 weeks

fire_alarmist

Bitcoin is currently teasing around the April 7th lows, poised to go UNDER where it was during the massive tarriff drop. What do you think SPY is gunna do? L0L

hellojabroni777

im 100% when he does his first official fed speech, SPY will crash -2% lol

NotMyMainLoLzy

Puts for Monday should print. SPY 680 SLV 60

Crazy_Donkies

SPY has held it's own for a month, which is good with all this uncertainty.  Despite corn dumping.  Let's hope corn is its own animal and even more decoupled from the market.  I want a green week.

LitterBoxServant

There are too many ways to try to make a quick buck. Why would poors dump $700 into a single share of SPY? At the same time, you sort of deserve what you get if you yolo into an options strategy with what little you have.

OurNewestMember

This all makes sense. I think yes, management of open positions would interest me the most. But I suspect my use case isn't so different from other users' when we reframe the pieces. Let's generalize: * Future market possibility (eg, stock moves up, etc) * Potential action (eg, buy, sell, hold some position) * Expected result (eg, gain/lose X amount over 20 days, etc) We can mix and match these. "Future market possibility" (scenario) could be a speculative belief (eg, stock moves -5% on earnings in 12 days) or a hedge scenario (what if us crude oil moves against me by 10% by the end of 3 months?). Now you can serve speculation and hedging user needs. Someone may want multiple variants of a single scenario (eg, up 5% vs up 7%, stock up + vol up vs stock up + vol down, etc, etc, etc). "Potential action" can be customer defined ("I'm already interested in buying SPY puts" maybe I just don't know which expiration, etc) or recommended ("these 25 ETF puts have the highest IV-to-HV ratio..."). Sounds like you already do the recommendations, but I didn't quite understand how that's presented. And again, there could be variations (eg strike A1 vs A2, sell within 15 days vs sell at expiration, etc) including "make no portfolio changes." "Expected result" could be simple (eg, value at a future point in time assuming all contracts carried to expiration, etc) or more interpretive (eg, using BSM vs BS pricing models). It could also be bracketed/Monte Carlo'd (eg, EV if early assignment and no downside move beyond strike A1, etc). Sounds like you're currently focusing on value of a hypothetical position at expiration.(Ie, we could extend to imagine one "potential action" having a bunch of "expected results", if only due to different future points in time). So what I'm saying is by generalizing the pieces needed to take someone from possibility to action, you can serve lots of different customer use cases with the same framework. Also the framework lets you plug in new features (eg, new pricing models which have different potential revenue and costs to operate). Maybe you're already doing this. Also... You could even perform all of this recursively (possibly even in a chat bot). Eg, "assuming the S&P500 will not drop 5% in the next 45 days [speculation scenario], what SPY put could I sell to maximize ROC with a drawdown of no more than 40%?" Might return.15 different sorted contracts to sell [each, a potential action]. And then you ask, "assuming SPY rises more than 1% in the next 24 hours [hedge scenario] what are the times and prices to submit sell limit orders [potential action] for 3x the March 580P to maximize the premium collected but not going more than 8 hours at a time without increasing position risk?" [Expected result]. We used the framework to identify a 45 DTE position and again to hedge against getting a bad entry on that recommendation. Does this seem possible and valuable to you? So my more concrete feedback on the tool is that it wasn't obvious how I would use it for my use case (mostly hedging). But by generalizing the features, it could be much easier to draw in many types of users and use cases because it will be more seamless to "brand" each feature for different use cases (eg, you could have a "hedge builder" and "speculation lab" both run on the same framework but be easier for users to understand what it can do for them) I know these can be very big projects, so the idea here isn't to flood you with "do my use case!" Or "I don't get it" but rather to think out loud about how we can simplify solving these kinds of problems, partly as way of assessing a tool's current value as well as total addressable user needs.

DriftWoodBarrel

Damn. I bet Monday we wake up to cataclysm. SPY at 650. Should have bought puts.

J_da_CPA

Tom Lee calling SPY 800 Buy the dip 🌮 🥑

the_sound_of_a_cork

Anyone that comments that "markets are at ATH" as if it carries any significance are frankly morons. The term means nothing. Just ask the morons that said that at SPY 350, and 400, and 450...

ScholarPrize1335

Crypto is dead, SPY looks like it might crash, bonds are basically CDs so where does the money go? Cash or metals. As of today's bitcoin drop gold is the highest yielding asset over the last 5 years. So huge demand but also growth that looks unsustainable. I would be surprised if 2026 isn't a good year overall but Monday seems poised for a big move and I have no idea which direction it will be. I see retail and non institutional financial advisors moving a portions of money that was in bonds to gold. I think short term crypto prices are the biggest driver. Long term it's bond yields.

SPY-Talk

I watched SPY for the past 5 years or so and the day I started trading options unrestricted they changed it to a 24 hour ETF so it started behaving completely different. One thing I’ve noticed after the change SPY will typically right at open pump the opposite direction of the big move for the day. it does seem less organic

nabicanklez

I only trade IWM options. Sometimes QQQ/SPY Fridays I do TSLA 0dte 😍

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

These headlines are funny while SPY remains around ATH. Yes, dollar has devalued, but DXY is only down about 3% in the last 6 months. All that said, foreign exchanges are outperforming the US, but there hardly seems to be any sort of mass sell off for the US.

fire_alarmist

Dont let them gaslight you, this sub is currently overrun with bots/maga grifters/bad traders that never won before this idioicy that want this this price action to continue. It is astoundingly different from even a year ago. I got into day trading heavily like 2 years ago, I almost never lost a trade when I started. Especially stock trades I legit could count on my hands my losing plays over that first year, I made out massively on the April dip and following taco rally. But ever since May, conveniently when mango called all the big finance ceos together for a meeting, its just been a total slow bleed out and theta cucking and nonsensical price action with zero retracements ever and blatantly manipulation. This entire market is just stair stepped up from SPY 550 by large scale finance/government collaboration to turn off sells, inject billions at opportune moments and short squeeze up to the next checkpoint and then theta cuck and hold it up there. You will notice the main days we went down are days when bad bond auctions forced the Fed to unexpectedly have to allocate even more capital than required to prop up the bond market, which took priority over the stock market. You are correct, this entire stock market is a fugazi that hasnt had any real price discovery since May of last year really and we have had like 3 big liquidity crisis scares in that time. Every time there is bad news and the market starts to price it in, Mango just does something else that is world shattering then tacos from it to create a mechanical vix crush so that the original issue's downward momentum can be captured and the market cannot continue to price in the original bad news.

Happy-n-Healthy

So when will SPY drop 30% in a day? Oh yeah it didn't double in price in 2 months...

x7_omega

This is not about complacency or even sentiment, there is no thought process in this at all, and it doesn't matter in which market it happens. You are at the right place to understand this, but instead you bring all that stuff. In 2020 something new happened: people were locked up, bored-bored-bored, and cashed up. Robinhood was ready for them, and they liked it as an unsupervised teenager likes \[you know\]. Before that, there were smart money (Wall Street), dumb money (retail, CTAs, pension funds and such) and a few speculators. That is where all your slides apply, until 2020. In 2020 and to this day, a third group entered the game: you, fine people. Unlike smart money, group3 has zero risk control, infinite pain tolerance, and cooperative behaviour with near real-time coordination. Unlike dumb money, group3 has near real-time reaction, complex trading instruments, leverage stacked upon leverage (options) and a tight grip on gamma (because market makers need to hedge all your bets to maintain zero market risk). You are the very weapon of mass destruction that Warren Buffet warned about, but empowered and emboldened beyond his imagination. You know what happened to stocks and who did it. XYZ full port yolo - and there goes $100k into some bs stock that should not even exist. Market maker gets all that risk and hedges it with other derivatives, so that you go long calls, and they go long with futures with a multiple, no less than 10. Your $10\~100k calls created $0.1\~1M directional bet for that bs stock or SPY or whatnot. Millions of people did it, and now a trilli is flying directionally for no particular reason, moving market, triggering the dumb algos that chase momentum and such. Self-reinforcing move creates a trend that makes no sense but everyone is happy and posting screenshots. That is how stocks went up from April till recently, but then stopped. Why? Because attention shifted to other things - not bitcoin this time, which is why it is in the toilet. Silver, other metals - suddenly people started posting stuff about metals they couldn't spell a week ago, and chasing up stocks that have nothing but name. And it worked, all that stuff spiked. But at some point the attention shifts, the hot trilli finds another airport to land in, and the highly leveraged big disappears, leaving behind a trail of bags and stunned holders. This is the force that moves markets now, but not all markets, only the once that got attention. Silver market has just upset much of group3, and left behind too many bags and burnt accounts, which is why all that talk of physical shortages and this or that will not hold the price up. It was hot trilli that did the spike, and now it most likely will move on, for a while. If it stays, silver will paint another spike in weeks. This will be the attention test. Next potential airport is oil. Not for some particular reason, but because it is fresh. Trump will say something or look mean at Iran - oil goes up, hot trilli flies into UCO, and behold, oil does silver now, much to the surprise of analysts and other people who try to make sense of the cycles. This is the cycle: hot trilli lands - airport spikes; hot trilli departs - pile of bags is left behind. Find which market is next trilli airport, and you have advantage over most of Wall Street and all of dumb money.

Bfthorpe022

!banbet SPY -20% 180D

bordumb

You didn’t lose it. You gambled it away. Consider yourself lucky that you only lost $1,000 or so. If you make the same avoidable mistake when you’re older, that’s 100% on you. Learn and grow. Don’t get out of the market, though. Just stop gambling. Buy SPY or VGT index funds and sit on it.

ch0c0l8cake

Exxon goes up 15% and SPY does nothing LMAOO

gopoohgo

Segal from UPenn wasn't that far off from that either.   He thought it would be more SPY493 though

Mackenzii91

!banbet SPY -10% 1w

Temporary-Alarm-744

!Banbet SPY 680 1 week

hallett21

!banbet SPY 700 1 week