SPY

No-Improvement3164

SPY rsi 14 and only down-4.5% from ATH? 🤔

Jebusfreek666

I bought 1DTE SPY puts end of day Thursday. It opened down 0.5%, and somehow I was down money....

Substantial-Use-2867

Iran could swear loyalty to the US and offer free oil forever. SPY will still not jump 5%.

Vegetable_Push6542

How many times is Venom17645 going to spam SPY 700

Venom17645

SPY has already surpassed 700 in the dark pools..

Waste_Cauliflower_11

RIP https://preview.redd.it/ir8qd7ylh4pg1.jpeg?width=1088&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0f16135ab3e56634e6c5fb2e784b8276c33e596 SPY sub 600 comfirmed

Vegetable_Push6542

They are going to fuck the bulls in the ass on Monday when bulls see oil dumping and think that means SPY will pump, and then they dump SPY too

torokunai

500 SPY

Emilio___Molestevez

https://preview.redd.it/lctpmnywg4pg1.png?width=1408&format=png&auto=webp&s=7130e15fbd88b2854f5bea57dd3647f366cb4081 how to $SPY 820 in one candle

DontTakeAccutane

I have been beating SPY since october, where else would you put the money other than gold which has already mooned?

Venom17645

SPY already hit 700 in the dark pools on Friday but they hide it from retail until the rebalance. Once SPY does the 4am Monday rebalance and futures start catching up, price discovery is gonna send this thing straight past ATH before the market even opens. 700 is basically support now. If you’re a bear at this point I genuinely don’t know how you recover from that level of financial and emotional damage.

borkdpasito

What’s more likely to happen first? 600 SPY or 700 SPY

guzzledglizzy

If SPY closes down next week, I’m prepared to say the n word

x7_omega

Well, NYtimes is welcome to short oil on Monday open, then post screenshots here. Meanwhile in real world, someone is Iran is apparently fond of SPY puts and oil calls. https://preview.redd.it/ro8dqiiyc4pg1.png?width=1155&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2c9c35bde04d2ac5c1f3e85c33afc8d8830ad12

Comfortable_Oil6642

I pay no attention to the news but SPY won’t be green on Monday after being red for so many days This is the best way to trade Pure vibes

Buddha_is_my_homeboy

Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw SPY vs SPY soon

MusingsAndMind

SPY is never going to $700. Sorry m8 but it's over.

BooBrew32

Wouldn't be surprised if we saw SPY at $700 on Monday.

LostandConfused2024

What would yall do if we opened at SPY $680

commit10

Gotta pay for my degenerate SPY put addiction somehow. 🤷

incitatus451

>i hold SPY so in theory a spacex inclusion means i'd automatically own some. No, it means you will have to buy some at any price to own it.

pmotiveforce

Just realized this war is to cover up shit economy and bubble. They pretend war is big issue so when it clears market goes up. Without war SPY 620 by April. With war, 620 staved off until later this year.

sunburn74

If you're going to do options do it as a stock replacement strategy and only do calls. For example, you could buy reasonably priced out of the money 2 year call LEAPS on SPY strategically when the market is down 10% betting on a rebound. But this ODTE stuff is just ridiculous to me and will lead to bankruptcy.

ub3rm3nsch

It's funny to me that people in this post think that oil can dump and equities can pump at this point based on soundbytes. Functionally, a miniscule amount of oil is passing through Hormuz. Whether this is because Iran is saying the United States, Israel and their allies are not allowed, or whether it's because the IRGC is operating independently of the civilian government, or whether it's because insurers won't insure the ships and crews won't risk their lives, or whether it's because Iran has indeed laid mines, or whether it's a combination, it's difficult to tell. The point is, oil is not getting out. Because oil is not getting out, there is a daily deficit of ~20,000,000 barrels not meeting global demand. We are above 250,000,000 barrels of deficit right now. This is also leading to medium term structural shortages. Logistics flows are not restorable in a few days or even weeks. Wells are being shut down. This is going to take months to untangle, and months would be if the war stopped tomorrow and oil flows were fully restored. Price is an intersection of supply and demand. As much as people on here who have calls on SPY want that not to be the case. Becausd of the medium term structural shortages, oil will only go up in the short term, and it won't dump overnight even with good news.

Winter-Extension-366

If you are a SPY trader then you should know that the price action is principally driven by the hedging flows of the SPX option position held by hedgers (accounts which clear as type: "market maker", for our purposes). I don't say this to market ourselves but VS3D by VolSignals (yes it's my firm- can I even mention my own service/platform?) is designed by two of us (Matt and I) who actually spent our careers market making for large index vol trading firms. The software/platform is then built by two developers who built firm-wide analytics supporting the market making arm of one of the largest firms in the industry. We are new(er) to the space, but ultimately we are here because every entity on your list above sells something which they do not understand nor model correctly

Alternative_Boat_652

The bigger drop is when I wake and baked and bought some SPY 0DTE calls, realized they were shit, and bought another one accidentally instead of selling the ones I originally bought and didn’t realize until they expired. Also no joke.

Glam34

Similar but with QQQ. Im sure you could outperform SPY by selling CC...on SPY

trustfundkidotaku

I see I thought trader make a few buck hedging 5% drops like a perpetual SPY puts Also did u manage to reposition the Iran war drop ? If yes how would u hedge it ? simple correlation hedge ? USO - airlines ?

dagroup

Jesus, Not to sell courses, to sell monthly memberships that vary from $50 to $415 per month (his real income). Why should you pay him for "education" that is freely given away by Prop firms, certified technical training instructors, etc? For the cost of his lowest membership w/ 3 trading session per month, "Spy Day Trading" offers everyday, I have not taken Spy Day Trading offers where he trades SPY and SPX options, but he seems to show results on YT that are impressive. What bothers me the most is Erik uses his Military Service as an advertisement. When I took my oath it meant I was to protect the people of the USA not use it as advertising! Mug of Coffee above gave his YT name, checked it out [https://www.patreon.com/cw/OutlierTrading](https://www.patreon.com/cw/OutlierTrading)

jsie-iaiqhsi816278

privatize the profits socialize the costs my SPY 1000 calls need to print

kktvMIN

Depends on whether SPY is a better investment than other places.

LaneCraddock

1. Treasury Bond / ETF: SGOV 2. Gold / ETF: SGOL 3. S&P 500 / ETF: SPY 4. Ex-US World / ETF: VEU I would go into Treasury Bonds for now and wait till we reached the bottom with the Iran fiasco.

Level_Counter3062

Everything's going to be fine I assure you SPY will not break 600 this year

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

And since the war started, VXUS has been dropping more than twice as much as SPY.

esInvests

first, i wouldn't arbitrarily pick an underlying i want to trade. in this context, why SPY? what edge do you think you have there? think first about the market effect then worry about the options stuff. for starting tips, check out the posts below: [https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1gejy0q/trading\_options\_for\_a\_living/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1gejy0q/trading_options_for_a_living/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) [https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1c3hgfh/stop\_wandering\_aimlessly/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1c3hgfh/stop_wandering_aimlessly/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) [https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/zfjut1/mit\_free\_courses\_investing\_and\_statistics/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/zfjut1/mit_free_courses_investing_and_statistics/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)

big-papito

SPY is like 3% off ATH. Wait until the reality kicks in.

CompoundQuietly

Buffett put it well: "Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you're doing." An investor with genuine conviction in a handful of deeply researched businesses doesn't need to dilute returns with a basket of 500 names they've never analyzed. SPY is a great product for people who don't want to do the work. But for investors willing to understand a business inside and out, concentration in high-conviction positions has historically been the better path.

NationalOwl9561

GEXstream is all I use. And literally just using NDX. To trade SPY.

wrestlerkid

As a results of the actions of Donald Trump, the American economy will suffer devastating consequences. An economy that was already fragile and headed towards recession as now had its fate sealed. A recession much greater than and much more catastrophic than the 08 recession is now a 100% guarantee, thanks to Israel, Netanyahu, and Trump. Inflation which was already very high to begin will soar to unprecedented levels rapidly (it already has- notice it cost about 35% more to fill up your car this week?) That being said, I've sold all 15 of my stock positions last week (when Trumped made false claims of a short term war to pump up the market), and bought multiple puts. Will be purchasing substantially more SPY and QQQ puts this week/ selling calls, increase gold & silver exposure and increase BTC holdings. That being said, I highly advise against in going on long on US markets at this time.

vanibanz

DCA in broad etf. Safest. ( SPY, SPMO, VGT, SCHG, ...). You can also choose stocks that have broad businesses e.g. BRK.B, BN, ... If you have a pension, even better.

yel1r

I want to get started with trading SPY. Currently have 5-10k to trade with, but not on a margin account. Want to start with a cash one first. Anything you experienced as a newbie that have been valuable lessons you would like to share? Or point to any materials that have helped you to learn a lot?

Material-Macaroon298

SPY is a majority of my holdings. Every day I automatically invest $100 in to SPY. Trite advice is right advice still. Time in the market bears timing the market. I still pick my individual stocks and do special options strategy at the margin. But no way in hell am I putting a majority of my net worth in to options strategies.

Blackout38

See that’s the thing SPY/SPX is simultaneously the one egg in the basket and diversified.

Megaloman-_-

I have never trusted this phuckin administration. On mid February 2025 I liquidated my whole IRA + emergency funds + mother funds that I managed. That’s a crap load of cash btw. I started selling CSP’s at delta <20 on SPY and GLD, and more recently on XLE. Many around me were laughing about my “overreactionary” approach. Let’s see who starts laughing now

Glad-Lie8324

Wow you made money trading over a two month period!?? Holy shit SPY must be a bad investment!! Talk to me when you beat the market with your system on a risk adjusted basis for 10+ years. Then maybe I'll give a shit. Until then, SPY is a much better investment that I can add too at any time and sleep well at night.

SlartibartfastMcGee

It’s literally just a crypto market for gambling. It would be like trading an NFT of a picture of SPY 650 and thinking it has an effect on actual markets.

Whythehellnot_wecan

Keep in mind SPY is not so diversified anymore it’s heavily weighted toward the large tech companies. I’m not saying it’s a bad investment at all but the other responders statement isn’t as accurate as it once was. SPY is the benchmark for the market and remains a solid choice. However if there is a big drawdown in tech SPY will get wrecked just not as bad as nasdaq. OP like others have said, depends on when you need the money, how aggressive you want to be, and can you stomach a downturn for say 2-3 years probably a worst case scenario. Think someone said SPY 50% then hold 50% in HYSA or Bond fund if you’re gonna need the money in 3-5 years. That’s probably a bit too conservative if you don’t need the money right away. Just going to throw out an alternative you can look at target date funds. They will diversify you better based on your target retirement age, so set it and forget it. These are low cost. All things considered these are fairly conservative as well. The pro is if there is a pull back you won’t be hit as hard to the downside. If you have other investments and this is “just cash” sitting look into a money market or HYSA. That’s where I store my cash. I think you can get about 3.75% on the low end and it’s safe from any draw down.

WocketWaccoon

Dave “contrarian cuck” Hunter said the SPY violent melt up coming after this war will make the post-Liberation Day melt up from last year pale in comparison

PublicCommenter

I usually buy 0 DTE SPY options between 9:30 and 10:30. How do I know whether to buy uppies or downies?

SnooPaintings5100

50 % SPY or other Stock-ETF 50 % in high yield Account or other safe investments Age 61 is way too old for a 100 % Stock Portfolio (unless you dont need the money for retirement)

paq12x

Right, I've been buying 100 SPY shares/week for the last 5 weeks. Not sure how long I can sustain this buying rate. Would love to be able to do that until the summer. My future self will thank me.

lOo_ol

Pull that money out, and put it in a HYSA immediately. Don't listen to anyone telling you to put it in SPY or some ETF. Money that you may need within 24 months should not be invested in the stock market. Also, if you can't stomach some volatility, don't get anywhere near financial assets. No shame in it.

Veritatis-Cupitor

Buy SPY puts as a collar against an imminent correction.

FuckleUp

Already wrote off my SPY 667 calls so if I sell at .02 it’s profit

TJMBeav

I see many of you anti-trump idiots have survived. It makes a bit of sense since it is a bearish sentiment. Hello fuck heads! I am sitting on a 690 strangle in $SPY. 6/19 and 4/12 expiration thru the weekend

fungoodtrade

upper side of channel sell call credit spreads, lower side sell put credit spreads. I will usually leave QQQ spreads 10+ points OTM, so if the channel is 612-590, I write call spreads that are 625/635 and put spreads that are 580/570 . You can start there and keep selling closer to the money until it reverses. At that time you should be opening the put side as you are closing the call side. I suggest QQQ or SPY and targeting known supply and resistance levels. There are people trading 0DTE spreads. I'm usually trading 14DTE, or 7DTE. theta decay is pretty rapid. Longer DTE spreads don't have as much theta decay, but give you more room to roll. This is income generation from volatility that's all. Its not a long term directional bet. You can do iron condor as well, where you open both sides of the spread at the same time. I do that as well. I will sell any equities I have that are in the green next week. I will hold the losers for now, though I will also aggressively sell CCs on them, so if they continue down I can lower my cost basis as well.

---Right--Tackle---

#SPY 680 Monday

Portfoliana

the problem with the melt-up thesis is it assumes large players need weeks to exit. they dont. institutional desking has gotten way faster since 2020 and dark pool volume on SPY has been running above 45% of total, which means the big exits can happen without moving the tape much at all until its too late. im sitting on about 60% cash rn (~$180k) and what keeps bugging me is the high yield spread. its been widening steadily since january and last time that happend while equties were still grinding up was late 2018. that took about 6 weeks before SPY followed it down.

jamieperkins9999

On monday: Short Dollar, Short Oil, long SPY, long metals, long metal miners, laugh at bitcoin.

Fun-Journalist2276

SPY 640 and bounce back ATH

ElPoeop

I bought around 10k in $30 strike VIX Mar 13 calls when VIX simmered down to about 24.75 on the 12th. I considered many things including PCE report, oil, obvious mistells in the news from the war briefings, futures, foreign markets and looking at the top ten socks VOLUME in SPY. next day I made about 2k. I could have made significantly more on the initial gamma spike on the 12th-- and should have sold then -- but I was greedy. Gamma is popping and I'm getting paid. I'm assuming market makers are still trying to unwind from options on big name companies that just had earnings about 3 weeks ago. I don't have a Bloomberg, and yet I can read the tea leaves.

pacific_b

LMAO BERS 😂 Sorry just practicing for 2035 when the war declared over and SPY pumps from 240 to 320

GreenGameboyColor

Not a good weekend to be 100% in SPY and MSFT 😓

Coolbanh

SPY 500 ezy peazy. Joining the ber side

pharaohq9

Tbh bro, if you just kept that 14 grand in an HYSA over those 5 years or better yet in SPY, you’d be up a pretty penny. Why not end this misery and just become disciplined and invest in some shares? In next 20 years you’ll recuperate those losses. You have to be really lucky to get back that 14k in the coming years, and before you know it you’ll be trying to dig yourself out of a deeper hole. Just ease the stress and make the smarter more secure choices. “Still never giving up” “come too far and learned too much” are indicators that you’re not thinking about things realistically. Learn to take your losses because you have no idea how “far” things can get.

Rvin16

SPY calls Monday Morning if it gaps down premarket, hold until Tuesday noon. Then buy Spy puts Wednesday right before close and hold until Friday afternoon You heard it here first

betaforever

Long OIL is IV'd up. Short SPY is the easiest way to make money off it. Higher oil goes, lower everything else goes, except the dollar ofc.

coronagetcha

I think the increasingly uncertain outlook for jobs based on AI along with the war and the financial issues with AI debt combined to push me to more of a neutral outlook. You also need to consider that we haven't had a real pullback in years and SPY is up 25% from last year. Stocks aren't cheap even if everything is going well.

mechajlaw

He would have done nothing the entire year, and SPY would be at about 680-690.

Sydtron69

Were in a goddamned recession. Nobody is saying it. But we are. Look at the SPY chart. Look at the GDP numbers. Nobody official is going to tell you were in a recession. And you all shouldn't wait for it yourself.

PapaCharlie9

> I would never be selling the shares anyways, I don't do that. They will literally sit there for years (and have). A CC is a contract to sell your shares. You sold the right to make the sell decision, that's what the CC premium is for. So you don't get to decide if the shares are sold or not. Since it's SPY CCs, the buyer of the call can exercise **at any time** before expiration. They are in the driver's seat, not you. > These would be like 3% OTM calls. SPY can and has moved more than 3% in sufficiently long time frames. You can mitigate the assignment risk by using near-term expirations, but that means you also reduce the premium you collect, leading to the legendary "pennies before a steamroller" saying. And in any case, SPY doesn't have to move 3% for the call buyer to exercise. There just needs to be a sufficiently large dividend payment. > As long as I am rolling And what if all reasonable rolls are for a loss? If call #1 sold for $1.00 in premium, then SPY goes up, so now you have to buy call #1 back for $3 of premium, you net a loss of -$2. Then you sell call #2 for $1 premium again. You are still down -$1! Repeat that a dozen times and you are netting loss after loss while also locking up your appreciating shares so you can't sell them. > but it looks like it is using ETFs to show how the strategy doesn't work? CC funds are just the more egregious cash grab example. All forms of CC trading have the same drawbacks. The important point is in the first 1 minute of the vid.

ValueOfADollar

So SPY’s 200ma is around 658. If we close below that next week I will assume my life is over

Rude-Substance-3686

damn what’s everyone’s base case for the next 3–6 months on SPY and QQQ right now I’m treating this like late‑cycle startup funding, trimming the crazy bets and letting only the strongest conviction plays keep runway

captainfranz82

SPY down 6% from ATH is a downturn?

shmito17

It's not if SPY hits 650 again, or a matter of when. I hate this slow bleed, just get it over with.

amartya_dev

QQQ and IWM are good alternatives with cheaper premiums. Also look at liquid names like AAPL, AMD and NVDA or sector ETFs like XLF and XLE. But sticking to one ticker (like SPY) can actually help you read price action better.

Additional_Gur_7900

SPY will sell to 655 Monday pre market and rebound to 672 thru the day

asph100

You are thinking that somehow that you would be assigned on the short put and can still sell the long put. That's not how it works. When options expire, you cannot trade them. At that point, you have two choices - exercise the option or let it disappear. In order to realize the profits on the expired long put, you would have to exercise them - i.e. sell 100 shares. In this case the 100 shares that you just acquired from the assignment of the short put. What then happens is that you bought 100 shares of SPY at $650, sold 100 shares of SPY at $640, and received a premium of, say, $2 for the 650 put - $1 for the 640 put = $1. The math is: $640 + $2 - $1 - $650 = -$9 per share, and you own zero shares. If you don't exercise the 640 put, you have just thrown away the hypothetical $1. You would have more money by just shorting the 650 put. If you are assigned before expiration, that's a different game that I am not going to explain here.

Icommandyou

SPY YTD is down 3%

No-Improvement3164

That’s what I’m feeling too. Should have dumped long time ago. Juggling act with rotation getting chasers to chase and SPY puts to get Fuk watching mega caps and tech dump.

celibidaque

Wasn’t the name SPY 500 anyway? Oh, wait.

savemoney_god

SPY QQQ DOW, -5% Monday

No-Improvement3164

This market is so Regarded that some news will come out and SPY will rally 3% into 3/20 OPEX. Chasing would take place and then more news to trap and dump into the end of the month.

Commercial-District1

YOLO on SPY, complain about gas prices

Veritatis-Cupitor

SPY close to 600 end of month.

amartya_dev

The risk is the spread width. If SPY drops below both strikes, your loss is basically the difference between the strikes minus the credit you received. It’s defined risk, but definitely not free money.

ApartmentVegetable77

400k SPY short on Friday + 30k put YOLO on $DG. Things are about to break https://preview.redd.it/dv4y0zywx0pg1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4652dd67a7b17045e5ae937fc11ab48c85d3983b

Agent0_7

SPX and XSP. Look up 60/40 tax adavantage for European-style options. You save on taxes AND on fees for doing SPX rather than VOO, SPY, and even XSP.

kalvin126

Two weeks from the top of SPY, I moved 80 percent of my 401k to bonds. I don’t know if that was smart or not.

godsslayer54

The amount of money SPY puts are going to be printing. I don't think even mango trumpet can manage to jack up the cost of living that much.

Silver_Flan1661

Prediction markets have WTI @ 106 by Friday..... SPY 650 incoming.

Silver_Flan1661

!banbet SPY 650 1week

Silver_Flan1661

!banbet SPY $650 1w

CalicoCapsun

Speak for yourself. I have SPY Puts.

OG_Tater

My SPY price target is 615.

NarpRocks

This is why I only got SPY puts and didn't go long on oil.  Too risky to speculate until the treasury stops trying to manipulate the price.

ChewbaccaIsBear

my fav price of SPY was 420.69

Apha-apha

Wait for Trump’s tweet which spikes SPY

Existential_Entropy

Honestly, yes. Basically all 2025 i was bullish after I realized we were rallying after Liberation Day and the May puts i bought became worthless. I don't day trade much because i suck donkey balls at it, so i mostly do swings and LEAPS. I tried puts a couple times, but got kicked in face for it. Things started changing in October, but many names were still bullish, and GLD and SLV continued going crazy. The beginning of February was when I drastically reduced taking long calls. SPY became stagnant and every few days the market would randomly dump. The TACO was dying. I still have calls open, but im hesitant to buy more, instead selling PMCCs against the calls I already have in case they tank. I started buying puts mid Feb on green days, wait for red days and sell puts.

wrestlerkid

Just sold all 15 positions yesterday regardless of gain or loss and bought SPY puts