SPY

Gambled4MyRangeRover

Moreso uncertainty. 15% tariff + rumors coming out of a strike Monday/ Tuesday + technicals + trading day after option expiry SPY -1.5% tomorrow

DesticularDorsion

Wake up to movers packing your shit out because your collateralized BTC/SPY swaps got liquidated after an AI video of a data center fire caused the algos to freak at 2:47am on a Saturday. 

gbgbgb1912

If SPY goes up enough, laws don't matter. That's some extra incentive for the administration

NoooNotZalbag

-1.5% SPY monday

TheoryInttro

Crime. Tesla is Enron Musk trading on bot accounts and proxies using Saudi money, Scamvana is the cartels laundering money. Hindenburg Research published a report on Scamvana and almost immediately shuttered their business after receiving credible threats from the cartels. After getting into SPY they didn't give a shit about Gothams report, otherwise Gotham would be closing too.

Waiting4Reccession

Ive got SPY $685 / $665 Put spreads for April that I bought Friday :) And the short spx call spreads I sold expiring next week friday. Give me that red Monday baby

grimandnordic1

I closed all my SPY calls so likely we're up another 1% to spite me

Pale_Newspaper_82

Of course. Nothing ever happens. SPY is either flat or goes up.

Pale_Newspaper_82

They will be. There could be nuclear warfare, a new pandemic, or the sun exploding and SPY will still be +0.4% that day

orangeyougladiator

I think we don’t get SPY700 at all this year unfortunately. Good news is you can make millions riding the volatility down.

Guy_PCS

Based on data ending in early 2026, here is the approximate 20-year performance breakdown: * **Nasdaq-100 (QQQ):** \~1,300%+ to 1,400%+ Total Return (approx. 13%–15% CAGR). * **S&P 500 (SPY):** \~500%+ to 600%+ Total Return (approx. 10%–11% CAGR). * **Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA):** \~400%+ to 500%+ Total Return (approx. 9%–10% CAGR).

alexfelice

You can get better at it as you If you just stick it in an ETF and never do anything different then that’s one thing, but if you learn how to invest you will find better opportunities along the way I started with DCA the SPY 10 years ago but found RE a while in and I’m way beyond my 30 years goal and now with cash flow I’m still looking for great opportunities, and I’m confident I will find some along the way. It’s also not a full time job for me, just a hobby The real problem occurs when people get impatient and try to juice returns too much then get crushed and it sets them back further than if they had just played it slow

tika_dengu

I am closing my EM positions and loading up SPY, the glorious rally starts Monday.

Woland47

Hi everyone, Considering the huge buzz about the potential dip on monday, I’m thinking to buy some puts on XLY and not on SPY. Mind you, I am very much new to trading so God knows if anything i am saying here makes sense. The reason for XLY is the abnormal price and low liquidity for the SPY puts with few days to expiration. Consumer cyclicals have been the most underperforming stocks recently (apart from friday, which may be another reason for them to fall next week) and taking into account their high beta, I would expect an even better return than by gambling on SPY. Thoughts on how severe is my confirmation bias is?

xDaniellxx

SPY 0DTE will humble a man real quick. At least with these you gave yourself time to be right instead of needing to be right by 3:59pm. Character development arc unlocked 📈

OwnParticular9672

Have had my fair share of 0DTE with SPY, wont even touch with 10 feet pole now.

Pizzapimento

!banbet SPY +1.13% 2d

Connect_Boss6316

OP, thanks for starting this excellent thread. Theres a lot of very meaningful comments here. Do you have an example of an actual trade from the past? I see you gave an example in the opening post of Spy being at 685 and you selling the 688/682 shorts etc. But im struggling to match your deltas. I backtested this for 5th Jan when SPY was at 687.9 at 10:15 EST. But the 0 35 delta call is at 689, just 1 strike away from ATM. And the 0.35 put would be at 687. So the shorts would be at 689/697, which doesnt allow for a 2 point gap between the shorts and longs. VIX on this day was around 15.3. Then i tested it for Mon 17th Feb, when VIX was around 20.5. SPY was 679.6 at 10:15EST. The 0.35 strangle was at 682/677 strikes. To maintain the 2 point distance, i opened the 680/679 longs expiring on 19-Feb. Net cost 6.95 points. Breakevens at trade open were 673.7 and 685.6. The trade reached a profit of 7% at 13:15, and at 14:00 was showing a loss of 11% with SPY at 684.3. I saw the profit tent deflate throighout the day as the longs lost value. When you say "goal is to close the position when it reaches 20-25% profitibality" do you mean when it makes 20-25% based on the debit paid? Or when it reaches 20-25% of the potential max profit? Cheers again.

Ok-Push-9906

Thats a great explanation. Im not even really sure what the point of the put is, on the same expiration. It just makes it so SPY has to go up more to make any profit. Was it meant to be some sort of insurance in case it really tanks you get some sort of booby prize ? But probably still losing money because the call would lose. It seems like SPY to go way up or really tank hard for this to make any sense. Is there some reason the OP thinks this might happen but totally unsure on direction? Is there some fed rate change or event i dont know about?

Madsen13140

SPY: best i can do is -0.15%

Neel_Crashkari

Only 5,800 for SPY 800c 12/15/28

Carfar_Farcar

Turned $1,200 in SLV calls in early December into GLD calls in Mid-January. Ended up with $140k at the end of Jan and instead of holding back I full ported more GLD calls on Jan 29th and that went....poorly. Lost around $97k immediately and another $15k trying to catch the falling knife. I didn't really like how that felt so I pulled all positions out and took a day to just breathe. I ended up jumping back in and making a bit off SNDK calls and rolled that profit into CATcalls. I ended up back at around $70k before pulling out $15k so in case I fucked everything up I'd still have something to show for it. Currently on a losing streak again, been hovering around $40k most of the week until Friday where I dropped to $36k and now await Northrop Grumman to either blow up or blow me up. I do love a good 0dte story, but full porting is insane to me after nuking most of my account on GLD so I'll throw a hundred bucks or so at some earnings weeklies or maybe twenty bucks or so at a stupid SPY 0dte in case of a Black/White swan event but going forward I've just decided if I'm going to lose all my money here it won't be on straight up gambling but entering a longer term position I actually think will succeed and being wrong. I'd rather be wrong and learn from it than blame bad luck and keep pushing it.

ProblemOk4641

Give me SPY -1% premarket Monday pls.

Top_Cranberry_3254

Does anybody else feel like we are due for a major pullback/correction at this point (by 3/1/26)? and this could be it? SPY has not been able to break 700 and keeps hitting lava every time, there is this range that feels like the bottom (around 670-678) is going to drop out any moment, but the dip buyers keep miraculously saving it and bringing it back up tot he top range point. It just feels like it could've and should've crashed down 10% by now, and it just hasn't. I feel like 650-660 (or worse) is coming very soon with or without this news.

Top_Cranberry_3254

I feel like we are due for a big rug pull with SPY falling down to at least 650-660. Does anyone else agree, and maybe this could be it with Iran attack possible on top of it?

dre5354

Spy is marginable so you can use it as collateral in a margin account. The question you must answer is what happens to your margin buying power when SPY drops 20% and the Facebook puts go in the money. If you diihave enough margin available, you will get a margin call and can be forced out of a position at the worst time.

PatientAd9394

SPY to 695 Monday. Markets do not care about tariffs no more.

FlexxSquad

Go all in on 0DTE SPY puts Monday. Turn that 120k into 2 mil. You’re welcome

Sweaty_Platypus69

MSTR + CVNA = Will be 15% of SPY market cap!

Sick0h

Based on ber consensus SPY open at 142 but downturns further to 114 before close

spyputs1

I agree, I used to trade SPY and moved to SPX, liquidity is not an issue and spreads are relatively tight save for the $5 bid increments

GrandMind4602

SPX has shit liquidity? Lmfao Not sure if you’re joking or serious; SPX options are generally more liquid than SPY options

smohyee

Actually my point was that *both* of those have shit liquidity compared to SPY, which I actually use.

hallett21

Can decide if my SPY 700 calls or 670 puts are gonna print first lol

hacking99percent

Market up 0.7% last Friday when he announced 10% tariff. If you didn't buy SPY put, that's your fault. It's not just insiders that could have acted on it.

Puzzleheaded_Tie5967

Someone bought 40 million in SPY put options late Friday afternoon (650 expiring on 2/27) F your calls for Monday. Meanwhile CHYNA will announce Deepseek V4 and also flood the Silver Market. Happy Fire Horse New Year 🎉🎉🎈🍾🎊🎊📈📈📈📈

gratatatatatatat

Tarifs = buying non US stocks are 15% more expensive Inflation still go up So they have to buy US stocks, 15% more tbh, so SPY +15% monday Follow for more financial advice

CatholicRevert

Well, I guess my SPY 0DTE calls on Monday are screwed...

Dirty2020

Tariff risk already priced in. Tariffs ruled illegal not priced in. SPY 750 EOD. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Thecreamcheeze

I hope this drops SPY significantly

Axwe8

We are going to WAR. ALL IN SPY CALLS because obviously, **it's priced in** 🤡 🤡 🤡

eclipse60

Sell Tesla and put in an S&P ETF like SPY or VOO. Could also go with a dividend etf like SCHD. Whatever ETF you go for, make sure you turn on DRIP. Its a Dividend ReInvestment Program. Helps your money compound faster. You will have capital gains taxes to pay, but its worth doing imo. You should also open a ROTH IRA. You can contribute $7k towards 2025 until 4/15/26, and you can also contribute for 2026 as well. So maybe sell $15k worth, move it to a ROTH IRA, and buy the ETFs there. Roth IRA let's your money grow tax free, but the downside is that you can really use the money until you are much older. However, being 21, you can slowly move these funds into a Roth IRA, and hit Coast FIRE by the time your 25-30.

DetroitSportsKillMe

Excpecting SPY 1%+ cause this sub is so bearish. You don’t get to win

whawkins4

Step 1: Sell it all. If you recently inherited it, cost basis should be near zero. So capital gains will be negligible. And gambling your life on Elon being able to keep TSLA propped up forever doesn’t seem very smart, even though he’s on a pretty good run. That’s what you would be doing if you DIDN’T sell. I do not believe anyone is going to buy a personal robot anytime soon and TSLA valuations are based on dreams and fictions. Step 2. Reinvest almost all of it immediately in a mix of index funds with high volume that expose you to the broad market. A lot of people choose SPY for this. Do NOT try to learn to be an individual stock picker with granny’s generous gift. Do NOT try to trade options based on which direction you think the price of TSLA is blowing. Just buy it and hold it. Thank granny for her generosity and show that you’re a good steward of it by thinking long term. Check in with whatever you choose once a quarter.

hudson701

Wow! $2k into $50k in a month! Was that on Robinhood trading SPY/SPX?

Historical-Pin1069

Cash out of Tesla and just put it in the SPY

Fat_tail_investor

Keep it all invested and let it grow. The when you have a wife and kids, and you’re fairly certain where you want to build a family, use the some of funds as a down payment. Now what to hold? Personally, I would just sell off the holdings into SPY/VOO/SCHX (ie some broad based index fund). That may create a taxable event. Do some research

GammaWinsSam

No I haven't tried it, I might be missing something. My impression is that the $2 spread in your example is much less than the net debit of the strategy, so it's not enough to save the position from loss. If SPY moves one percent or more, doesn't the long strangle lose most of its extrinsic value? You'll be left with the $2, the rest goes to cover the short and a little bit of extrinsic value left. Basically, a large move means the premium from the short legs don't pay for themselves, and the long legs lose a lot of extrinsic value, and have to give up most of the intrinsic gain to offset the shorts. I did try the position. Not placed an order, but tried to analyze it. It will be easier to analyze on Monday when the market is open, but it sounds like the position is roughly worth $480-$490 in the beginning of the day, net theta around 0 and positive vega. https://www.gammawins.com/calc?key=7PM87jMW When the short legs expire, the position is worth $520 max, with a lot of potential to lose a lot of value. https://www.gammawins.com/calc?key=WmLN5yi4 Of course the IV assumptions of the calculator are probably too simplistic and don't take term structure into account, but it still sounds like there's a large downside to PnL if the underlying moves more than a percent?

IDintKnowShit

Wait, so you're telling me if I put up $976 and I win 10 SPY short-dated debit call spread flips in a row I'll be a millionaire?

breakyourteethnow

"I think", so you haven't actually tried it. It's built on greeks, .35 delta shorts, if there's a 1% implied move for the day the greeks will represent it. And no "this position loses a lot if SPY moves 1%", it won't knock the structure out of profit since it would've built $2 strike width worth of intrinsic value. I'm literally trying to avoid vega affecting the structure as much as possible, so IV going up or down becomes less of a factor with less dte on the longs. You clearly have not even ran this structure and assume much. Gamma & vega are the enemy, that's why it's built how it is to offset gamma ramp up widening shorts and longs, and using longs with less dte to be more sensitive to gamma and less sensitive to vega.

Hot-Ambassador8740

Imagine holding 150 contracts of SPY puts at the peak and selling for a $2K gain instead of waiting 30 more minutes and making $50K 🤡

Life_Eye_5457

I used to study fundamentals and found it to be a waste of time, bc Tech in the 90s had 2x the fundamentals as SPY and 2.5 to 3 x the PE, PB as value, Yet Tech outperformed them all to present times. People pay more for a booming stock, as we will now see in Ai in the next 35 yrs.

greenpride32

I'd suggest you move all the holdings to either SPY or VOO. Effectively they are the same thing - they are ETF's that both track the SP500 index. VOO has become more popular in recent years due to lower expense ratio (the amount the fund charges you to maintain it - it's a neglible amount). So what is the SP500? It is 500 of the best publicly traded companies in the US, with track record of growth and profits. Very rarely do you find companies here that collapse in short order - and when they do the other 499 companies will keep you afloat and likely outweigh any losses in one (or a few). Another benefit of SP500 is it rotates "losers" out and "winners" in. Individual company prospects change over time, and if a company is declining, it will be replaced by another that's on the rise. You don't have to try and pick which companies will be the top ones going forward, the index does the work for you. SP500 index has existed for almost 70 years now. Over that time period, it has an annual average return of over 10% with dividends reinvested. If you compound 10% over a period of 7 years, it roughly doubles your money. So at age 22 you could expect a path of $240k/480k/960k/1.920m at ages 29, 36, 43, 50. Now the joint account was probably not the best option from a tax perspective. Had you inherited the account on passing, you'd get what's called a step up cost basis. That means you could sell every position, and have zero tax liablity. You'll need to consult an attorney and or financial consultant in your state as the laws may vary, but most likely 50% will not have step up cost basis and 50% would on your grandmother's passing. Why that matters is if you need to sell every position now, to rebalance to a less risk adverse, you could be on the hook for substantial taxes - it really depends on how large the gap is in current share price and share price acquired (or capital gains) - the larger the gap, the more taxes owed. I think it's a good idea to rebalance despite the tax consequences. And you can do it strategically over time by limiting the captial gains to a certain tax bracket and repeating the process each year until done.

Aplhacuck

I’ve done very well on SPY options so far this year. In one session I’ll have bought and sold calls and puts several times. One thing I’ve not done is hold them over night or through the weekend because the market is irrational and unpredictable

PTRBoyz

If you want easy management just buy the cheapest fee versions of SPY, QQQ, GLD, and EEM. 

Summerdaysengineer

https://preview.redd.it/kvfxn040tukg1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9ef05a246866c60484d588ee5ad3b46629fa1c05 I’ve made it all back recently, and more after the slump in end of November I don’t play options — I do a mix of CSP, Covered Calls against SPY and big tech

AdhesivenessCivil581

You can just buy SPY or VOO. They are index funds for the S&P. You might want to buy a % of bonds just to keep the account liquid. SGOV is a short term government bonds ETF that pays about 4% interest. I've been buying that when I have extra cash. The price is very stable. You can set these up to reinvest dividends. Then you'll be set up for now and can see if you develop an interest or not. Tesla is very over valued. The price is always based on some future value and frankly Elon is a bit loopy these days. You won't owe tax if it's an inheritance so now is a good time to sell.

LumbyCastle41

> If one option dips the other goes off I just need find the right time to sell correct? This is the part that will screw you over, as well as every other 0DTE trader. Yes, you *just* have to sell at the right time. The problem is, you only know it was the right time after that right time has already passed. With 0DTEs, there is usually only a single point in the day where it happens. Then you think it'll come again and it won't, and you'll watch the value dwindle to $0.015. The other way is that the underlying jumps far enough in either direction that one becomes deep ITM and nullifies the loss of the other, which is now far OTM and worthless. But that's literally just a pure gamble. You don't know that SPY will jump like 10 dollars overnight. 99 times out of 100 you'll mistime it and theta decay will eat them both. Look at the prices of your two contracts, that call is way more expensive because the likely gain over the weekend is priced in via volatility. So if the market jumps a little bit, that $4.38 will still go *down*, not up. Even though it's a call.

Rare_Tea3155

This is really sad. You basically ruined your entire life and set yourself back 10-15 years. You should start saving again and just invest in SPY or another low cost index fund. STOP TRADING. YOU SUCK AT IT.

Brinkken

Sell all the Tesla immediately. Sell all of your individual stocks if you’re not going to monitor your portfolio closely. Split half your money across SPY (S&P500) and RSP (equal weight s&p500), and half across something like IEMG (emerging market index) and IEUR (Europe index) or just ACWX (all-world except US) if you want to keep it simple. 

Neat-Gap-4340

SCOTUS may have removed the uncertainty regarding tariffs, but there’s a great deal of uncertainty hanging over the market, including the economy, potential war with Iran, NVDA earnings next week, earnings, season, wrapping up, etc. To say nothing of the uncertainty that our fearless leader generates each week. A lot can happen over the weekend, so I think there is a good deal of trepidation in the market. I bought a couple of SPY puts at the end of the day yesterday, and if the market rises next week, I will buy a few more because I think we are due for a correction.

GammaWinsSam

This is basically a leveraged long position in SPY. It behaves exactly like SPY itself, the premium on the short put fully offsets the time value in the long put. It's called a synthetic long, the PnL line is just a straight line: https://www.gammawins.com/calc/synthetic-long/spy

Theleniel

Obviously the ruling was bullish. But I saw people here commenting during the speech that they didn't understand why SPY wasn't crashing once Trump mentioned the 10% global tariff thing.

GammaWinsSam

This position loses a lot if SPY moves 1% or more, enough to offset a lot of the wins. Its theta quickly becomes negative with a .5% move in SPY. The upside is the positive vega. Basically the long legs give up most of theta, but gain positive vega. I think this can be a good trade when VIX is low and IV can go up. Have you tried a ratio version of this? Like 4 shorts and 3 longs. I think that widens the profit range and theta positive range, and you should still get positive vega.

Civil_Squirrel_6363

Well then why would you take a loan out…just pay your taxes if your not gonna yolo the whole 5k into 0dte SPY calls. #NORISKNORARRI

AlGAdams

Everyone notices when the earnings have negative reactions but no one was wondering why SPY ripped 4% in October with barely any earnings or macro economic changes. These reactions are just corrections from extreme hype over AI.

Hot-Pop-3250

I put in an order for "SPY 700" hats 4 months ago so there's plenty to go around, folks

neutralpoliticsbot

Basically SPY needs to cure cancer or drop to $0 for I to make money Very low % chance

Away-Personality9100

I understand your math, but it is dangerous because Theta decay if SPY will go sideways. I rather sell options and love Positive Theta. It works for me and generate income. 🙂

SnooGuavas6342

I like to think of it this way: Call options: add the price of the option to the strike price. $687 + $4.38 = $691.38. You’re betting that SPY will end higher than $691.38 on 2/23. Put options: subtract the price of the option from the strike price. $687 - $1.58 = $685.42. You’re betting that SPY will end lower than $685.42 on 2/23. But because you’re buying a call and a put option you’d need to include the others price into the calculation to determine what SPY would need to end 2/23 at to actually make money overall. SPY would either need to end 2/23 higher than $692.96 ($687+$4.38+$1.58= $692.96) or lower than $681.04 ($687-$1.58-$4.38=$681.04). In other words, you need the price of SPY to be $5.96 higher or lower than $687 by the end of the trading day on 2/23 to make money. If you sell before nearing the end of the trading day on 2/23 then it needs to appear as if the price of SPY will end the trading day $5.96 higher or lower than $687 to make money. But this is only assuming that you sell both options at the same time. You don’t have to. You can sell the call option and the put option at different times of the day. Here are a few different scenarios: 1. SPY opens higher than $692.96. You can sell your call option for more than $5.96 and sell your put option for maybe around $0.15 to $0.25 (Only an estimate). Or you can sell your call option and hold the put option to sell at another point in the day if you believe the price will drop. 2. SPY opens lower than $681.04. You can sell your put option for more than $5.96 and sell your call option for maybe around $0.15 to $0.25 (Only an estimate). Or sell the put option and hold the call option to sell at another point in the day if you believe the price will rise. 3. SPY opens at $687. Your call and put options are worth about the same as when you bought them. The total value of both options together will be worth less and less every moment that SPY stays between $685.42 and $691.38 as the day goes on. In-order to make a profit you’d need to sell your put when it appears that SPY will end the day lower than $685.42 and sell your call when it appears that SPY will end higher than $691.38.

Kitchen-Assistant-24

The SPY annual reports break out holdings individually, but not by sector unfortunately (at least in the earlier years). That was my original go-to but there is the problem of mapping legacy/defunct companies to their relevant historical sectors. Doing it manually for hundreds of companies over decades isn't feasible, and without historical crosswalk tables (or some similar tool i don't know about?) there's no way to automate the process.

thesecretgames

0dte SPY

wenxuan2

So i see we have potential war and confirmed higher tarriffs, all bullish news right? So make sense for me to go full port SPY700 calls right?

cave13man13

At any moment you're puts can be short squeezed to worthless. I lost 20% of my port Friday 2/20 with 685 puts bought perfectly at the open climb and didn't sell for a 30% gain on the dip 😮‍💨. Only to be short squeezed into oblivion when all news was bullish. I trade options on SPY daily and expected -1% SPY Friday with a market close recovery near flat. SPY is bullish but be careful.

Anxious-Coffee4

I bought 02/23 SPY puts today. Did I do good dad?

Personal-Walrus-3682

Today's reports showed declining growth (GDP) and inflation is sticky (PCE). We are headed into stagflation. SPY is going down. There will be volatility so maybe not Monday, but we're going to trend down. As for the tariffs and possible Iran war, only Trump knows what market plays to make because he's making the tariffs/war decisions.

taplar

What about the [EDGAR SPY](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=884394&owner=exclude) reports?

longdrivehome

I don't think I understood how much patience plays into it. Once I started taking longer dated options and sizing into positions, where turns against me were also a good thing in the short term to build the position bigger, it's feels like I have a tiny bit more control. That being said I fully understand SPY's been on easy mode the last few months for that trading style. Fuck up in the 680's? Just make sure you're fucking up with long enough expiries to wait 10 days till it jumps back to the 690's and vice versa with puts. Very, very aware that's not a permanent pattern but it's been fun to learn on

bladzalot

I do this all the time, but I do it $2 OTM in each direction so the “straddle” is WAY cheaper. It nearly always pays out, but the amount is very low unless it is a large move day. If SPY goes 5 points in either direction you make out like a bandit. But on the majority of days, the SPY is really good at opening and closing +/- $1. On those days you have to pay really close attention to make sure you sell one of the contracts when it is valueable, then pray it swings the other direction enough to get you to break even on the other side. Yes, it is gambling, but it is a little smarter than Vegas odds gambling, and this entire market is hard as fuck to predict with the dipshit in chief causing daily chaos and making our lives and hobbies fucking miserable.

longdrivehome

Turned $30k into $55k day trading 60dte SPY options the last 2 weeks and I don't know if it's beginners luck and I should stop or if I'm actually learning how to do it after 4 months of trading random shit and losing money and studying till I found a strategy that my dumb brain kinda understands. Spotted the double top and took 8 green trades with 1 red riding the chop today...feels good man

Dramatic-Praline-880

🎢 1. You’re Paying for Drama The call costs $4.38 The put costs $1.58 Total = $5.96 Because each contract controls 100 shares: 👉 $5.96 × 100 = $596 You’re spending $596 just to play. For you to win, SPY has to move a LOT before 2/23. 🧊 2. If SPY Doesn’t Move Much… You Melt If SPY just wiggles around 687… Both options lose value every single day. That’s called time decay. It’s like buying ice cream in the sun. If nothing exciting happens fast… it melts. You can lose most or all of that $596 very quickly. 📏 3. It Has to Move More Than You Think You need SPY to move roughly: Above ~$693 or Below ~$681 Just to break even. That’s a big move in a short time. If it only moves a little? You lose money on both sides. 🎰 4. It’s Basically a “Big Move Lottery Ticket” You’re not betting on direction. You’re betting on explosion-level volatility. If there isn’t news or a major event? This is usually a fast way to donate money to market makers. 👩‍🏫 Simple Version You’re paying $596 hoping the market freaks out tomorrow. If it doesn’t? You probably lose most of it.

spyputs1

This is the move, if you’re trading 10+ contracts SPY makes 0 sense compared to SPX

COBRA_DROGO

Will NVDA earnings finally push SPY to 700? Find out in the next episode of Dragon Ball Z

throwingitanyway

SPY 720 by next Friday

BarbellPadawan

GLD 700 before SPY, probably

RevolutionaryPhoto24

Oh, I think near 800 EOY, hahaha! I actually traded some 800c on the bigger dip and rise, but holding closer to the money now. With SPY ranging and all the macro and repositioning madness, I’m not making shorter term predictions. Though obv think both should rally on earnings. This next MU ER reminds me of how excited I was anticipating NVDA 2023 ER (a guy in r/stocks said he was shorting it based on my comment, and then came back and said it was a mistake, lol.)

Groucho-and-Harpo

Theta still works for 1DTE, just works much faster. If SPY ends up at $687 at the end of the day the straddle goes to zero. SPY would have to close either $5.86 higher or lower than $687 for a profit, or you’d have to back out after SPY makes a sharp but smaller move at the beginning of the day that outsizes theta decay.

EmergencyGlobal5983

Thanks! it was SPY

JokerKing_420

Because you will make only if SPY either closes below 681 or closes above 693 on Monday.

Timmy98789

Looking at my SPY calls... *I should start a nonprofit*

FNFactChecker

Confidently incorrect. An ITM call has intrinsic value. SPY closing at $687 drops the intrinsic value to 0. Theta has very little, if anything, to do with it since it's 1DTE

eleheartech

Cool cool cool… so are we buying SPY puts or pretending this is bullish somehow? 😂

EmergencyGlobal5983

SPY, calls at 691 and 694

aerothony

It’s called a straddle, but if you’re more bullish at least choose a call that expires more later than the put, conversely if you’re bearish. SPY can be unpredictable but have had some great successes using this strategy with LUNR.

crazybitcoinlunatic

If SPY opens at the same price, the 687 Call theta is 0.50 per day, so 1.5 days later you are out 1.25 or so in theta decay at least.

lupindub

What if SPY goes sideways like it has literally the past month? Both your puts and calls get destroyed

Valkorion335786

"Moody's upgrades US credit rating after learning u/Valkorion335786 had purchased SPY puts."

AMDeez_nutz

!banbet SPY 670 3d

TradeVue

I don’t really run anything continuously intraday other than some 0DTE SPX Iron Condors for fun when I like the setup. Occasionally I’ll scalp but not continuously. Most of my “always on” exposure is boring by design, longer DTE premium selling where theta is reliable an gamma is manageable. Stuff like short puts, strangles or condors, broken wing flys, ratios in the 30–60 DTE range, sized small and spread across underlyings. Those I can let breathe and manage mechanically. And it all is dependent upon my position and portfolio Greeks and metrics, correlation to SPY and diversifying across different products. Intraday or 0DTE structures, diagonals, calendars, flies, those are all situational for me. I only put them on when the market context makes sense and I have a clear plan for exit. Or maybe I need to add or shed more delta or theta etc. They’re tools for me but not a baseline system. Like I’ll run calendars often for earnings plays (playing earnings is always a gamble regardless of setup), and CSP’s and CC’s on stocks I own or like to add some income. Net net, I like my default book to make money from time passing and not from *needing* clean intraday movement to survive.

panna__cotta

I can’t stand Trump but none of that really matters. It’s a mental play, not an industrial one. The American market has no real competition and neither does the dollar as reserve currency. VXUS is like the gold play. It makes people feel safe. It’s not *really* economically informed though. Hell, just look at SPY all time vs gold or VXUS all time. Look at American earning power and spending compared to the rest of the world. Most of this shift in international buying is driven by *Americans*. It’s sentiment, not facts. The US has room to devalue their dollar and is using it to devalue their debt. The call is coming from inside the house. Sentiment will just as rapidly shift back the minute Americans feel like it.