SPY

RecoveringAss

You ever get drunk at a party, you’re talking to a pretty girl and things are going well, you’re having a great time….. Then you see it, the blank stare she is doing over your shoulder, the penny drops, you’ve accidentally been talking about SPY for the past 5 minutes and you’ve lost her.

nailattack

It’s funny how the best, most successful investors in the world say with confidence that they don’t know what the market’s going to do. But we have every retard on here who joined in 2020 posting charts and saying SPY will fall another 15-20% minimum.

waltwhitman83

SPY is a ticker :D

Purge_stocks2343

!banbet SPY 400 10d

Attorney-Outside

!banbet SPY 500 by July 15

VisualMod

**Ban Bet Created:** **/u/Memez_R_Dreamz1** bet **SPY** goes from **390.08** to **360.0** before **2022-07-05 13:38:59.335522-04:00**

Memez_R_Dreamz1

!banbet SPY 360 10d

MorePumpLessDump

But you're saying I gambled that it would tank. Buying a SPY option within $1.50 of the strike price not what I would call tanking

VisualMod

**Ban Bet Created:** **/u/neural_net_loss** bet **SPY** goes from **390.08** to **370.0** before **2022-06-30 13:29:27.337056-04:00**

neural_net_loss

!banbet SPY 370 5d

MorePumpLessDump

I didn't gabble believing it would tank. I bought a $372 put at $374 thinking it would drop 1%😂. Lets not get overly dramatic here. I am not looking to make some genius play, I don't have a "thesis", except that SPY either trade sideways or drop a dollar or two. Did anyone see a 7% price increase on the immediate horizon?

therainbowdasher

The only people who trade SPY over SPX are people with shitty brokers \*cough\* Robinhood \*cough\* who don't list it

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/treesRfriends13 (0/2) made a bet that SPY would go to 380.0 when it was 387.54 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

69-420yourmom69

You gambled, and as of now you lost. I hope that you went in willing and able to lose that $3,000. If not, I’m sure you’re learning a valuable lesson. My question to you is: what changed? You bought these puts believing that SPY would tank by July 5th. What about your investment thesis has changed? If you cut losses now, where could that $400 you have be better spent? To be honest, this trade is a complete gamble, and it was from the beginning. SPY could go up more next week and you’ll lose money, or it could go down and you’ll breakeven, or it even could stay flat in which case you also lose money. Would you rather walk away with $400 right now or risk that $400 for a chance to make back your losses, knowing that there’s a very high possibility you’ll lose that $400?

feyln

Is recession officially over, are we going to SPY new ath now or what

redtexture

Posts that fail to state the content of the item are subject to being taken down. Your actual topic is: SPY Puts at 374 exp July 5. Critique my losing trade.

adultswim_antifa

1. The market's movements over very short term is basically completely random. If it weren't, it'd be too easy to make money and you wouldn't need to be patient. 2. Over months, the market has a strong mean reversion effect. The market has gone down a lot very fast recently, so this is very bullish. Based on that alone I think SPY could run up to 425 or higher in July. Crazy? That's the level it was at only 2 months ago. 3. Over about a year or less, the market has a trend. We're in a bear trend. The bottom might be much below the current level. Falling in half from here is not out of the question. If that happens, good. I am going to love buying SPY at 180. 4. Over long time periods, the trend is up far more often than it is down. This is nearly almost bullish if you've got enough time to wait. 5. WSB sentiment has been very bearish and WSB is always wrong. Expect a big move up in the next month or two. Already started perhaps, the market moved up almost 7% last week. If you're buying the dip every month and even using leverage intelligently (lol), you're probably going to do very well within 2-5 years, if not 2-5 months. Be mad you were wasting money on overprice shares a year ago if anything.

SendMeHawaiiPics

I never would... I would stop buying options around 3m and then sell cc vs like SPY or something

Dszquphsbnt

I read that as SPY 50 and smiled

runner-runner11120

I have no idea obviously, like everyone else. This last three weeks of price action and flow sure feel similar to other periods of pre panic. Massive bets in the options market point to some late august early Sep chaos. Don’t think sentiment meaningfully turns until SPY gets below 320 and rebounds with strong support.That’s a long way down (33% from ath) Think the fall may start on the upcoming 400 test.

ThePatternDaytrader

SPY to the mooooooon 🚀

KingSurfer2001

I will be betting on the demise of Europe while you guys watch SPY hop around

New_Faces

Everyone saying SPY going to 400 makes me feel like puts were the move before the close yesterday

suasposnte187

401ks existed during the dotcom bubble and the SPY to 7.5 years to recover

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/TopRommel (1/1) made a bet that SPY would go to 395.0 when it was 379.03 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

CarpeLivem

SPY gap fill to $400, will probably break it and run more. Let’s say 406. I’ll begin buying TSLA 7/8 puts as price increases. Analysts are wrong on Q2 delivery estimates. The fireworks come July 5th this year 🎆

Capable_Director_781

will my SPY150 2024 jan exp print

_Right_Tackle_

There will be bear market rallies every 2 - 3 months to trap buyers, all the way down to SPY 300. Regards will think that's the bottom. Final rally will be from SPY 300 to SPY 320, and then it'll crap out to SPY 280. That will be the bottom. Sometime in Q4 2023 😘

zyzzonomics

Bear markets have a tendency to go down like 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, 1/2 like 20 %, 25 %, 33 %, and 50 %. Currently it's down about 20 % for SPY and 33 % for NASDAQ. Sort of depend a bit on the psychology of the market I think than just fundamental analysis like company PE, many stocks probably become pretty cheap during these bear markets. I think it's 320 for 33 % and 240 for 50 % iirc. The most similar case to the bear market this time is probably 1973, and it went down 48 % and lasted almost two years. Then stagflation got hold, and it was a decade of low growth and rising prices. In the end no one knows though. On the positive side energy prices most likely go down when there's a recession which is likely to come, but these supply issues are harder to answer since we haven't had a global pandemic in a hundred years, and we didn't have globalization back then like we have now. In the US the supply chain is the biggest driver of inflation, so I think it's a bit hard to tell how this all is going to end to be honest.

DaySwingTrade

Let’s simplify this. Forget about the money you put in for a second. Obviously you’ve done some research and concluded that SPY was going to go down. Do you still believe that’s the case?

schplat

So according to this graph… SPY to $0 is on its way, right?

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/trackrecord330 (12/12) made a bet that SPY would go to 368.0 when it was 376.785 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

Wild-Storage-1429

Yes! Go buy some 450 SPY calls and post here the result.

jackyan006

How amazing that the people here thinking there is a strategy available to solve the problem without make a prediction first. When you make a decision to do something, it has to base on a judgement, prediction and conviction (It doesn't mean you were right though), and only with that, you find the matching strategy to address the problem. What options can help to offset losses without making a directional perdiction first? A stop loss can address the problem of risk management, for that, you don't need to know how the market will move. Should you do it now and where, is the question about the market direction. How do you know at which point you should do this? if you convinced SPY at $400 is the point, why wouldn't you buy call at $400? If you were not that sure, why do you want to set up a stop loss at certain point? Stop loss it is exactly what the name mean it is. means you can't take it any more, you don't know what is going to happen next. you just can't take it anymore. Investment decision making process it is critical. You better get use to the pain.

nody_

Imagine he could have gone yolo on AMD, GME, NVDA, AMC, SPY... He went for HOOD. It will rip. It must.

_Wendig0_

Had a young patient come in yesterday for bilateral leg pain. 23 years old, healthy, no medical problems. Acting like it was severe pain but told me they drove themselves to the ER. > bullshit meter starts clicking Went to do my exam and patient had full strength. No neuro deficits. No saddle anesthesia. > bullshit meter clicking louder now Patient was really acting like they were hurting so I work it up anyway. Labs, XR, you know what we do. About an hour later, nurse comes and tells me the patient fell walking to the bathroom. Thisbitchrighthere.png "Did you take them to the bathroom After they 'fell'?" "Yeah but they didn't pee. Just kinda sat there." Interesting. Do a bladder scan and let me know. Bladder had more than 600cc. > bullshit meter gets a little quieter Go examine the patient again and legs now completely flaccid. No strength. No reflexes. Ahhfuckme.gov Order an MRI. Patient has transverse myelitis of the entire thoracic cord. They'll be lucky to ever walk again... Long story short, this rally has no legs. SPY 350 eow

avius987

just wait til the July CPI data. if it’s below 8.5 this thing is gonna start rallying. august CPI would be even crazier if it’s under 8.0. who knows we could be seeing SPY 430 by midterms. tin foil tells me the democrats want that. it all comes down to taming inflation. shit company results are already baked in.

EconomyIsFake

SPY 420 EOM. Market is back in retard mode

pocketsleeves

SPY = an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 SPX = a cash-settled futures contract of the S&P 500 You can look up what an index futures contract is. Generally, you can think of an SPX call as being 10x an SPY call in terms of size.

Seabound117

SPY isn’t at 0 yet and there aren’t “mostly peaceful” protests everywhere so it’s not the bottom.

CommercialCity2000

Just keep buying shares and hedge with SPY puts like every other person with 2 braincells to rub together

Makiavellist

Can you do the same trick with SPY? Asking for a friend.

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/plant_magnet (2/6) made a bet that SPY would go to 380.0 when it was 383.5 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

NavyEDDoc

What's the consensus on the overall Macroeconmics this week though. I'd love to see the bullish continuation which could skew all of these results but I am hesitant after a 7% gain in one week on the SPY. A little pullback Monday after the 3% pop Friday or do we just keep running??? Got a Mix of Calls/Puts so I can lose money both ways in true WSB fashion.

redtexture

Please read the **getting started** educational links at the Options Questions Safe Haven thread, and stop trading until you know what an option does. Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/subreddit_resources --- The two options were in the money; The short assigned stock, and the long was automatically exercised. You bought and sold SPY. Bought at 375. Sold at 374. That means your account had: $37,500 dollars spent, to buy shares, and 37,400 dollars received to sell shares.

Elven_Boots

!banbet SPY $300 120d

Elven_Boots

Oh wait, I won my banbet? What kind of stakes are those, if your strike price is *ever* hit in the time period you win? Okay, !banbet SPY $300 120d

QuadriplegicEgo

this is what i was hoping. either that or there's some major protest strike scheduled for monday and the workforce continues to implode on itself. we'll see, probably big fat market gains. i faintly recall SPY doing stupidly well during the 2020 BLM protests

Tomis48

SPY will be there next year if not sooner. We will be in a narrow trading range until the election and that will set the tone for the market.

papasmurftp

I'm balls deep in SPY puts bought eod. Not sure how I feel about it now. Hopefully beetcorn dies another death this weekend

RunsWthScizors

They said it backwards — inflation is poised for a strong second half, SPY gets cut in half.

JMichael12T

SPY has strong support at 350

StonksJobber

I’d personally cut my losses and move on from it, it’s too far gone to have any meaningful chance making you any money. Even if SPY tanked down to 272 you still don’t make any money and lose your $400 you have left right now.

uacaco

it looks like the SPY

Erpelente_

Well, not sure if this is a US thing, but I am from Germany. At least that's what it says in the app. ​ It's calls on the DAX. If it was on SPY, I would already be up again, sadly Europe got beaten harder and recovered less than US in the past week.

RecoveringAss

Over the next 5-10 years, I’m massively bearish. But I can see one more push to SPY 500+ to fuck over the majority that’s shorting everything right now. In fact, my entire portfolio is in Feb SPY calls right now.

HarrisLam

If SPY has the balls to go 395 or above on Monday I'm buying puts I don't care anymore. That's 10% rally in one week.

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/jeaoei (0/1) made a bet that SPY would go to 400.0 when it was 372.47 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/Independent_Crazy_67 (0/1) made a bet that SPY would go to 395.0 when it was 368.3 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/Ratty-fish (0/1) made a bet that SPY would go to 336.0 when it was 372.51 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

Oni1jz

A month ago, I started with $400 and made $600 buying SPY and AMC leaps for small profits here and there. Any better ticker I should be looking at for small gains?

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/TheFreeloader (0/1) made a bet that SPY would go to 400.0 when it was 365.86 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

teetree55

Haha I don’t want to give you the wrong information, my personal estimation would be SPY gain of 3%-5%/year would break even. Anything less is a loss. (I.E. 2% annual gain in SPY would still lose leveraged money)

RecoveringAss

Fed is a bitch. They’ll capitulate and start pumping back in cause America can’t fail. Until it literally just can’t take it anymore then we go to SPY 100

Philly8181

If we just changed the name of SPY to SUPER SPY it would probably double in value📈

doctorcrimson

SPY never reached 390 for 5 years before March 2021, might not go back up that high for a few years, nobody can tell you for certain what the future holds but if I were in your position I would get out of that position.

GGisLove

So Oil crashed and SPY rally this past week? Guess who’s bag holding oil stocks 🥹

KoGamer01

yeah SPY was quite oversold last week so a rally seemed possiable, and it did happen, with the chart pattern played out I think we stay flat till CPI and then pick a direction. I think we slowly go back down to 350-320 in the next 2 years but that is not to say rallies wont come and go when the bears get too greedy they need to be taught their place. To wrap this up, sell into any rally and there will be more bearish action with rallies along the way to make qucik money on

lilganj710

[Never underestimate the IRS](https://www.tradelogsoftware.com/resources/wash-sales/) Let’s say you start the year with $10k. You trade aggressively, FOMOing into any trend you see on SPY. Most plays lose, but some win by sheer luck. At the end of the year, your stats are: > Gains: $20k > Losses: $30k Net, you’ve lost your entire portfolio. So no taxes, right? Not so fast. You’ve been trading in and out of the same stock. If you’re not careful, all those losses could be deferred to next year. And you’d be stuck paying taxes on that $20k, even though you lost money In short: the IRS is more greedy than you are retarded. They got al capone, they got john mcafee, and they’ll get you

Stunning-Profit8876

Put simply: Inflation. If the market returned to early 2020 prices, the stock would be worth less than early 2020 prices in real terms. Before the crash SPY was at $337. It's now at $390. Cumulative Inflation is around 12%. We're not far off 2020 prices when adjusted for inflation, and SPY is still in a Bear market.

KoGamer01

I think SPY 350-320 in the next 2 years is entirely on the table, why? cus most of the gains that were created were cus of QE but now that QT is taking effect we'll see most if not all of those just fade to dust

freehouse_throwaway

well i looked into it and he did post about opening the position a week ago. you can look up times & sales history via any (real) brokerage, though SPY is pretty liquid so it'll be hard to track down a specific trade unless a person specifically post their sold position. i'm pretty sure OP is full of shit though the more i look into it. ah well whatever

MattmanDX

SPY. It's a pure 50/50 guessing game but it works. Until it doesn't.

whitekatana

Im really considering just long term investing SPY. I feel like a complete dumbass for losing so much money in trading. Part of me is addicted. But I just have to accept this career and lifestyle is just too unstable for me. It feels great when I’m up $1000 one week but the next week one day I lose it all.

whitekatana

This is great fundamentals. I always go into trades thinking they’re all gonna be wins. Like today I shouldn’t have traded at all I didn’t like the range SPY was trading in and the volume was so low, but because I wanted to make money today I bought triple the amount of puts then I got short squeezed to death and lost $1000

whitekatana

I feel ruined and it’s too late.. I have a merely 27k left with no good income. 12k of it is in SPY

sleepcountrycanada1

Theres a guy on youtube called ""unco chartist" where he breaks down how he day trades and teaches people how to day trade everyday. If you pay him $75 monthly, he tells you when to buy puts and calls after finding breakthoughs on discord and basically guides you throughout the whole day what signals to lookout for. I turned $300 into $1500 two days ago trading SPY but lost it all today because I didn't respect my stop loss (im retarded). Good luck

whitekatana

But you are right I wish I never traded and just went long SPY since 2019 but I didn’t know shit and I’m so torn from it

tastypieceofmeat

Having a nap, plz wake me up when SPY is 420.69

KoGamer01

okay inverse H&S payed out nicely for SPY this week, back to sideways we go until next CPI

wasabiEatingMoonMan

I’m holding a fuckload of call credit spreads that I sold that expire on June 30th. A nice SPY crater on June 29th would be great.

majordominus

SPY 395 Monday, dips tuesday wednesday then back to reject 399 and back down the week afterwards. Will open a position Tuesday

CarpeLivem

I agree because I think TSLA craters after the holiday weekend because analyst Q2 delivery targets are much higher than what will happen. This will hurt SPY and all tech.

waffleschoc

nah SPY $350 or lower by end of year

kalmus1970

I assume you mean extrinsic premium paid? Short JUL-8 (14dte) even right at the money is 6.30 at best Long AUG-19 (56dte) what are you buying? If you buy the 359 for 6.11, does that mean you would bail on a 0.19c move down in SPY? You'd have to go really deep ITM to have enough net extrinsic in the short to give you even 1% wiggle room. Do I misunderstand your idea completely? Also, the trade will be long delta. Your downside losses in the long will not be fully offset by the short as much of it is the loss of intrinsic value. So you wouldn't be "hopefully at a minor loss or minor profit". You'd be at a loss.

Noticeably98

Internet forums are a weird thing. Hey all, come say (mostly) anything you want (mostly) focused on acting a certain persona about a certain thing. Anyway, SPY 400 7/15 call

bearhunter429

The bottom is not in yet. SPY will see below $300 before the year ends.