SPY

nashyall

Puts on SPY, Cash to deploy on a pullback, or DCA.

No_Photograph_5262

What are the chances SPY hits 680 by Friday? What about 690?

al-in-to

Yeah, I also use option alpha and really like it. This would allow you to use there back test, and depending on broker trade for 0 commission on SPY.

warm_fork

Ugh...24 more hours. Anybody else think SPY is gonna find another new low this week?

tabrizzi

>Should I befriend Barron Trump to get the inside scoop on his pop’s tariff moves and when to short SPY If that doesn't work, consider joining his older brother's private club. I believe it's called the Executive Branch.

TradeVue

The best way to handle those situations IMO is to roll early and often, not wait until the position is deep in the money. Once the short call starts moving closer to 30-35 delta, that’s when you typically consider rolling out in time and slightly up in strike. Youre not going to avoid assignment risk completely but the earlier you roll the smaller the debit and the better your control over cost basis. Quarterly covered calls are usually too slow in fast-moving markets like SPY. shorter durations, around 30-45 days, let you collect theta more efficiently and adjust quicker when volatility shifts. If you truly can’t risk assignment, you’re better off with cash secured puts or diagonals instead. They give you more flexibility without realizing capital gains.

otherlordchumbucket

found a SPYder in my kitchen SPY 700 monday

SophisticatedLogic

I just built a big beautiful stock picker!!! Guaranteed better than crayon charts. 1st bubble you pop will blow your port, 3rd bubble you pop will 2x your port. If you hit CUCK, please put fries in the bag. >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!< >!NVDA!< >!TSLA!< >!GOOG!< >!HOOD!< >!SPY!< >!AMD!< >!META!< >!MSTR!< >!CUCK!< >!SMCI!<

CrushingCabbages

Buy SPY puts

Typical_Anybody_2888

I agree. There’s a lot of people asking themselves exactly the same question as OP, and the most intelligent answer is to just keep pumping it all into SPY/VOO and hold long term. Everyone has learned to max their 401k and stuff it into an ETF, everyone knows what to do. So we are all going to buy the dips and keep investing because it’s the best choice. Most people won’t have this mindset or understand, but the top 20% controls essentially all of the wealth anyways, and we are all actively investing and moving the market upwards because we have similar incentives.

Strong-Comment-7279

What on? I only trade SPY. I have one other holding, but it's a shitty penny stock. Like, 1.3 pennies per.

Suspicious_Pilot_613

This is why XSP, same sizing as SPY but with the advantages of SPX. Not as liquid though.

Neel_Crashkari

Some ass eaters in the chat rn SPY 670

kodiak296

I’m part of a discord with a guy who runs an algo for 0DTE options, mainly SPX/SPY/QQQ/IWM. His alerts are pretty damn accurate and consistent. DM if you’d like access

LeftTesticleOfGreatn

Hahaha, sorry shoeshine boy. You're gonna lose your shoeshine money and probably the best corner spot too of you spend to much time on reddit. Reddit has been bearish on gold for years and yet it's outperformed $SPY over 5 years, all while clown like you kept sniffing glue. Truth is *Trump is the reason, as long as he remains Gold will go parabolic*. It's the *only true store of value* that's stood the test of time and that not even Truml can manipulate (unlike crypto)

Charming_Raccoon4361

AMZN is a great company but does not care about the stock price. And we are in middle of AI and data centers boom and its -3% YTD. Forget about the clown, would you keep it another 5 years if it does not outperform the SPY?

jonnyfuel

Anyone know how $SPY is looking for Monday. Continue swinging up, any news, conferences from trump. It seems to dip around afternoon then pick up as the day progresses

StonkaTrucks

So how does this apply to SPY 0dtes?

panna__cotta

Because someone big always wants to buy the good stuff, so they ease the temperature back and forth. The big guns benefit off negative sentiment overall. Retail doesn’t even move the needle unless it’s a frenzy. The big players maintain the temperature on the assets like the dial on a stove. Like yeah there was a dotcom bubble, but NVIDIA is not going to die just like Apple has not died. This is the beauty of SPY. Just don’t invest your life savings in empty AI ventures. The real use cases will be specific but transformative.

Siva-Na-Gig

I was down 60% at one point, you can turn it around. If whatever you’re doing isn’t working just stop for a bit. Park your money in SPY or something and let it grow a little while you figure out a better strategy

Impressive-Bee-5183

Alright, let me be brutally honest with you because I've watched too many people learn this lesson the expensive way. Your Sample Size is a Joke September 9 to October 17, 2025? That's maybe 27 trading days. You're basically saying "I tested my parachute by jumping off my couch 27 times and it worked great!" You know what didn't happen in your testing period? * Federal Reserve surprise rate decisions * Major bank failures (like SVB in March 2023) * VIX spikes above 35 * Flash crashes (August 2024's Japan carry trade unwind hit 6% intraday) * Earnings surprises from mega-cap stocks that move SPY 2%+ * Geopolitical shocks (remember when COVID first hit and SPY had multiple 5-10% days?) Your backtest caught the market equivalent of "sunny with light clouds" weather. Cool. Now what happens during the hurricane? The Math is Hilariously Bad Let me break down what you're actually doing here: "both wings together cost only 10% of the Premium that we collected" So you collect $2.78 in premium, spend $0.28 on protection. That means: * Maximum gain: ~$2.50 per contract (minus $6 fees = $2.44) * Maximum loss: Depends on wing spacing, but looking at your purple lines, it's probably $15-50+ per contract You're risking 20-30x your maximum gain. This is literally the definition of a negative expectancy trade. You need to win 95%+ of the time just to break even over the long run. And spoiler alert: you won't win 95% of the time when volatility comes knocking. Look at your own equity curve - you're grinding out $50-150/day profits, but those purple max-loss lines show potential $1,000+ losses. One bad day wipes out 2-3 weeks of gains. Why This Strategy Has a 100% Historical Failure Rate This isn't theoretical - this EXACT strategy (short vol, collect premium, minimal protection) has destroyed countless traders and funds: OptionSellers.com (2018): Professional fund that sold options. Lost clients $150 million in a single November day when natural gas spiked. Guy had to release a crying YouTube video apologizing. LJM Preservation and Growth Fund (Feb 2018): Down 82% in THREE DAYS during the Volmageddon event. $1+ billion fund, gone. XIV ETF (Feb 2018): Short volatility ETF, lost 90%+ overnight and was liquidated. People had their entire retirement accounts in it. The pattern is ALWAYS the same: 1. Make steady profits for months (just like your backtest) 2. Get confident, increase position size 3. Volatility event hits (happens 1-3 times per year) 4. Lose 6-12 months of profits in a single day 5. Either blow up completely or quit The Real-World Execution Problems 1. Bid-Ask Spreads Explode During Volatility Your backtest probably uses mid-prices or last-traded prices from Yahoo Finance. In reality: * Calm market: SPY 0DTE spreads might be $0.05-0.10 per leg * Volatile market: Spreads widen to $0.25-0.75 per leg When you need to exit a losing position at 3:45pm because SPY just dropped 1.5%, you're paying the ASK to close your shorts and hitting the BID to sell your longs. That's $1-3 per contract in slippage across all four legs. On a $2.78 credit, you just lost 40-100% of your profit to slippage. Your backtest doesn't account for this. 2. You Can't Exit When You Actually Need To At 3:55pm on a volatile day, try getting filled on a 4-leg iron butterfly at reasonable prices. Market makers KNOW you're desperate. They'll quote you garbage. Your options: * Eat massive slippage (50%+ of your credit) * Let it expire and pray SPY doesn't land near your strikes (pin risk) * Get assigned and wake up Monday with positions you didn't want 3. Yahoo Finance Data is Garbage for This "This Data is collected via Yahoo Finance" Yeah, no. Yahoo Finance options data is notoriously bad because: * 15-minute delay means stale prices * Shows last traded price, not real-time bid/ask * Doesn't capture the actual order book depth * Many strikes have zero volume and stale data The reason CBOE DataShop costs $2,000 is because it's REAL exchange data with actual quotes. Your backtest is like planning a road trip using a map from 1995. 4. Pin Risk Will Destroy You You're trading 0DTE that expires at 4:00pm. If SPY closes anywhere near your short strikes (within $0.50), you have massive pin risk: * SPY closes at $580.05, your short call is $580 * You get assigned on the call (now short 100 shares) * Your $582 long call expires worthless * Monday morning SPY gaps up to $582 * You just lost $200 per contract overnight This happens ALL THE TIME with 0DTE and it's not in your backtest. 5. Margin Calls at the Worst Possible Moment At 3:45pm, SPY drops 1%. Your position shows a $2,000 unrealized loss. Interactive Brokers sees you're under margin requirements and force liquidates your position at market prices when spreads are widest. You don't get a choice. You don't get to "wait it out." They close you out at the worst possible prices, locking in your loss. This is literally in IB's margin policies - they can liquidate without notice. What Your First Real Month Would Look Like Days 1-8: "Holy shit! I'm making $100-150/day! This is amazing!"Total: +$1,000 Day 9: Small loss, SPY moved 0.8% in last hour. Close at -$350.Total: +$650 Days 10-15: Back to winning. Confidence restored.Total: +$1,500 Day 16: CPI data comes in hot. SPY drops 1.5% in 30 minutes at 2:00pm. You try to close but spreads are 5x wider than normal. You panic. Close for -$1,800.Total: -$300 Days 17-20: Reduce size, scared. Make tiny gains.Total: +$100 Day 21: FOMC announcement. SPY volatility explodes. Your shorts go deep ITM. Margin call. IB liquidates you at terrible prices.Final loss: -$2,500 Account blown by 25% in less than a month. The Statistical Reality Check You need to backtest through these periods (at minimum): * March 2020: COVID crash, SPY moved 5-10% daily * February 2018: Volmageddon, VIX 15→50 overnight * August 2024: Japan carry trade unwind, SPY dropped 3% in minutes * March 2023: SVB banking crisis, massive intraday swings * All of 2022: Constant 2-3% daily moves in bear market I guarantee your strategy would have multiple -50% to -100% drawdowns in those periods. Not because the strategy is bad in theory, but because the risk/reward is fundamentally broken. The Warning Signs You're Ignoring Your own equity curve is screaming the problem at you: * Small consistent gains: ✓ (classic premium selling) * Occasional larger losses: ✓ (classic blow-up pattern forming) * Maximum loss WAY bigger than maximum gain: ✓ (terrible risk/reward) * Short time period: ✓ (haven't seen a real volatility event) This is textbook "works until it doesn't" strategy. What You Should Actually Do If you're dead-set on doing this: 1. Backtest 2020-2025 minimum 2. Paper trade for 3 months - Not backtest, LIVE paper trading to feel real execution 3. Risk max 1-2% per trade - If your account is $10K, risk $100-200 max 4. Skip high VIX days - If VIX > 20, don't trade that day 5. Have mechanical stop loss - Close at -3x max gain, no exceptions 6. Don't trade around events - No trading on FOMC, CPI, NFP days But honestly? Just don't do this. The math doesn't work. You're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. The Bottom Line Truth Your backtest shows this works when: * Markets are calm ✓ * Volatility is low ✓ * No major news events ✓ * SPY moves less than 1% ✓ Cool story. What happens when any of those conditions change? Because they WILL change. Regularly. The question isn't "can I make money in calm markets?" It's "what happens when the market isn't calm?" Answer: You lose 10-20 days of gains in one trade. Then it happens again a month later. Then you quit with a blown account. I'm not trying to be harsh - I'm trying to save you money. This strategy has a 100% failure rate over long enough time horizons. It's not if you blow up, it's when. If you have $10K and you're willing to lose $3-5K learning this lesson the hard way, go ahead. But don't say nobody warned you when you lose 6 months of profits in a single Thursday afternoon because Powell said something unexpected. The graveyard of retail traders is paved with profitable short-vol backtests. Good luck, you're gonna need it.

dqdg

I am a ber, through and through, losing all my money constantly, so decided this weekend to review call options on the SPY. It really appears to be that easy. fuks sake.

LabDaddy59

Perfectly clear, thanks. Selling off a bit to pay for the buyback is certainly a valid approach; I've done similar with my LEAPS (I currently hold between 10 and 50 contracts on my holdings). Only you can decide if that's a risk you want to take and is part of risk management. I'm glad to see you exploring and questioning alternatives. If you decide to go ahead, a couple things to keep in mind. You mention 90 days out and 5% higher than current SPY. That would work out to be a Jan 16, 2026 expiration with a $700 strike (spot of $664.35). The credit per contract is $730. The delta on it is 27.8, which is, in my opinion, kind of high if you're trying to avoid assignment: over time, it's expected to close ITM once out of every four quarters. Here's the rub: say you take delta down to 20.1, or the $710 strike. Your premium is reduced to $460. Food for thought. Another idea: you state you have "a lot", but not how much, and you don't need to -- the idea is to sell calls in batches at different strikes for the same expiration. So say you have 300 shares, you could do 1 contract at $700 (27.8 delta), one contract at $705 (23.8 delta), and one contract at $710 (20.1 delta). The premium for the package is $1,771 (for comparison purposes, three $700s would be $2,189, three $705s would be $1,746, and three $700s would be $1,379). Note how the package has a similar premium to the three $705s; the package has an average delta of 23.9 versus the 23.8 delta of the $705. Do you have $10k-$20k available you can use as collateral?

AverageWSBUser

Hope it goes up. Hope it acts like SPY lol.

Ok-Tonight2623

Reminder that from 1993 to 2012 SPY only managed to go from $43 to $134. Now suddenly in a small 10 year period we have gone from $134 to $600...

Timmytheballs197

SPY

Timmytheballs197

I SEE SPY

GMEtheloot

0 DTE isn't hard if you understand where the support/resistance levels/pivots are (mark them out on the chart the night before) and wait for confirmations/retests (ORB, 9 EMA, VWAP, etc etc) as price moves between those pivots and supply/demand zones before taking a trade.....and then following that up by scaling out of the position, not getting greedy, and only leaving a few runners if you really want to see how long the move will go. All I trade is SPY 0 DTE daily, and it works like a charm. Everything else seems painfully slow to me after doing it for so long. If you aren't accustomed to the breakneck pace and volatility of 0 DTE and wanted to try it, try working down to shorter expiration dates first. Weeklies....then 4 DTE, 3, 2, 1,.until 0 doesn't feel like playing in traffic lol

Global-Management-69

I don’t want to demotivate you or anything but from your chart, it’s evident that you didn’t have a strategy to begin with. Either get a safe & growing strategy or invest in SPY & keep 10K aside to gamble like this.

MouserrMan

I don’t trade SPY 0dte but when would buy in when market opens?

JayRoo83

Just saw a commercial for SPY during the UFC event so I'm guessing that means SPY calls will now print

InvestigatorWooden33

Oh no I think I’m 70/30 on profitable trades since then. And it’s more-so that I stopped focusing on SPY and the likes and start watching companies on upswings and using their momentum for trades, just kind of plucking companies with earnings or about to merge or posting new tech. Also I’m using the same risk assessment as all of my trades are under $500…

Brave-Reflection40

Given that SPY has a currently price of 665.35 what is the probability that it will finish at 667.35 at 4 pm on Monday? ChatGPT ✅ **Estimated probability:** **≈ 37 – 40 %** That’s the likelihood SPY closes above $667.35 at 4 p.m. Monday, assuming average volatility and no weekend catalysts. # 📊 Sensitivity |Annual Vol|Daily σ|z|Prob (> 667.35)| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |12 %|0.76 %|0.39|35 %| |15 %|0.94 %|0.32|38 %| |18 %|1.13 %|0.27|40 %| So even with higher vol, the probability only shifts slightly upward — roughly **a 1-in-3 to 2-in-5 chance** that SPY finishes above $667.35 on Monday.

InvestigatorWooden33

-Average gey bear pissed that they lost $25 on a SPY put

kametoddler

delete Reddit and buy SPY or GLD

ConfectionDry7881

No one legit has ever called me (and so many time) to give me money or for my benefit. All such calls are for the benefit of the caller. If SPY can run as UIT at half the expense, QQQ can as well. They better lower the expense and keep it UIT. Voted NO!

Mean-Imagination6670

Thanks man and I definitely learned that from the first time I really dived solely into this one last week. Lost $480 and learned from that loss, just how fast and volatile this is compared to SPY. Gotta love the potential of what you can make from it, I’m a police dispatcher now and I work at night but want to do this full time.

PckMan

1. Don't sell options you're not willing to get assigned on. Being assigned won't "kill your portfolio". There are worse stocks to get assigned than SPY. 2. Don't ask ChatGPT shit. 3. SPY often moves a lot in the last minutes, usually a sharp spike reversing the day's trend but also sometimes following it. Closing your positions 10 mins before market close may mitigate this. It's important to remember that options can be exercised after market close but you can't close your positions past that. This means that you can get assigned based on after hours activity and there's nothing you can do about it

jensenskawk

My vibenalysis tells me Monday will be blood red to retest SPY 646 again.

Some-Rent-7742

YOLO SPY Calls

Prestigious-Ad-7927

True, but SPX would cost $3000 vs $300 for SPY.

Prestigious-Ad-7927

You your iron butterflies are 3 points wide in each direction to get that $300 risk, is this correct? For instance, if SPY is trading at 665 with 2 hrs and 30 minutes left on the trading day, you would open a 662/665 put credit spread and 665/668 call credit spread (662-665-668 iron fly). Then you would let it go all the way to almost closing and buy to close the butterfly at or few seconds/minutes before market close? Is my understanding accurate?

kodiak296

I’m in a discord with a guy who just started it up, he’s been running an algo that gives pretty damn accurate signals and alerts. Only 40ish members atm and it’s currently free. He mainly runs 0DTE SPX/SPY/QQQ/IWM alerts but they’ve been paying off for me. feel free to DM for an invite. He’s also on X @quantflowlabs if you want to check him out

fire_alarmist

Yea thats because due to stock options dictating the market movement, and the way the federal reserve works the market will literally just not go down until its a full scale crisis emerges and they cant even rig it to be ok. Like look at yesterday, almost 20 days of gov shutdown, rare earth bans threatening the entire AI/energy sector that 50% of SPY(the 50% that has been carrying us for 5 years), gold skyrocketing more than it has in a century the previous day, bearish as fuck rejections of major levels for the past week on longer term charts, regional bank failures with risk of contagion, and they still just bring it up after a massive gap down overnight, pin it, then pump into the close. No one can trust the price movement anymore. For anyone with half a brain its painfully obvious the price only moves to ruin the largest amount of retail options positions and nothing more, so they are left with nothing to do but just not play.

pho_SHAten

SPY is starting to signal liquidity exit; financials and energy led the move. Price has been below the 20 MA for 6 days (9 days for XLF and XLE). Haven't seen this type of pattern since Feb 2025. the VIX spike proves institutions are buying downside protection. QQQ isn't bearish enough so i think it's just specific sectors that could get hit. if those sectors can't recover, the selling could escalate further.

Impressive-Bee-5183

Oh man, I've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well. But let me give you the brutal honest truth since you're asking for realism. ## The Elephant in the Room: Your Sample Size is Basically Nothing You tested from **September 9 to October 17, 2025**. That's like 25-30 trading days, maybe? Dude. That's not a backtest. That's a *vibe check*. You need to see this strategy through: - Major Fed announcements (FOMC, CPI, NFP) - [VIX spikes above 30-40](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.VIX) - Flash crashes (like August 2024's Japan carry trade unwind) - Circuit breaker days - Election results - Bank failures - Random Trump tweets that move markets 5% **Your timeframe literally caught none of these.** You backtested during what looks like a relatively calm period. That's survivorship bias on steroids. ## The Math That Will Kill You Let's talk about your risk/reward here: > "both wings together cost only 10% of the Premium that we collected" So you're collecting $2.78 in premium and spending $0.28 on protection. That means: - **Max gain per trade:** ~$2.50 (after fees) - **Max loss per trade:** Could be $20-50+ depending on strike spacing You're risking **10-20x your max gain** on EVERY trade. This is the textbook definition of "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller." Look at your equity curve - you're making $50-150 per day but your purple max loss lines show you could lose $1,000+ in a single bad day. **One bad day wipes out 10-20 good days.** ## Real World Issues ChatGPT Missed **1. Pin Risk is Your Worst Enemy** You're trading 0DTE options that expire at 4pm. If SPY closes near your short strikes (say within $0.50), you have **massive pin risk**. You might get assigned on one leg but not the other, leaving you with a huge overnight position you didn't want. Example: SPY closes at $580.05, your short call is at $580. You might get assigned on the call (now short 100 shares per contract) but your long call at $582 expires worthless. You're now naked short shares overnight. If SPY gaps up Monday morning, you're fucked. **2. Bid-Ask Spreads During Volatility** Your backtest uses historical mid prices. In reality: - Normal market: 0.05-0.10 spread per leg = $0.20-0.40 slippage per butterfly - Volatile market: 0.20-0.50 spread per leg = $0.80-2.00 slippage per butterfly When you need to exit a losing trade fast, you're paying the ask on your shorts (to close) and selling at the bid on your longs. **That slippage could eat 30-50% of your premium collected.** **3. You Can't Always Exit When You Want** At 3:58pm on a fast-moving day, good luck getting filled on all four legs at reasonable prices. The market makers KNOW you're desperate to close and they'll quote you garbage prices. You might have to: - Eat massive slippage - Let it expire and pray - Get assigned and deal with the consequences Monday **4. The Real Fee Structure** You said $1.50 per contract on Interactive Brokers. But there's more: - Regulatory fees (exchange fees, OCC fees, SEC fees) - Assignment fees if you get exercised - Margin interest if you get assigned and hold overnight Real all-in cost is probably closer to $2-3 per contract, so $8-12 per butterfly. That cuts your small winners even smaller. **5. Margin Calls Will Liquidate You at the Worst Time** Let's say SPY drops hard at 3:45pm. Your account shows a big unrealized loss. Interactive Brokers sees this and says "your margin is insufficient" and **forcibly closes your position at market prices** right when spreads are widest. You don't get a choice. This happens ALL THE TIME with 0DTE traders. You get margin-called out of positions at the worst possible moment. ## The Historical Precedent: This Strategy ALWAYS Blows Up Eventually Go look up: - **OptionSellers.com** (blew up in 2018, lost clients $150M) - **LJM Preservation and Growth Fund** (down 82% in February 2018) - **Rogue Wave Capital** (similar short vol strategy, destroyed) These were professional funds with PhDs and millions in capital. They all ran variations of "sell options, collect premium, it's free money!" **They all blew up.** The pattern is always the same: 1. Make consistent small gains for months/years 2. Get overconfident, increase position size 3. Black swan event hits 4. Lose 50-100% of capital in one or two days 5. Fund closes, lawsuits begin ## What Would Actually Happen in Your First Month of Live Trading **Week 1-2:** "Holy shit this is working! I'm making $100-200/day!" **Week 3:** Small loss day, -$300. "That's fine, still up overall." **Week 4:** Another small loss, -$250. "Variance is normal." **Week 5:** CPI comes in hot. SPY drops 2% in 30 minutes. Your shorts are now deep ITM. You try to close but spreads are 10x wider than your backtest assumed. You close for -$2,000. **You just gave back 3 weeks of gains in one trade.** **Week 6:** You reduce size, scared. Make smaller gains. Confidence slowly returns. **Week 8:** Fed announcement. SPY moves 3% in the last hour. You can't exit fast enough. Margin call. IB liquidates you. **Final loss: -$5,000 on a $10,000 account.** ## The Data Quality Issue You're Ignoring > "This Data is collected via Yahoo Finance" Yahoo Finance options data is notoriously bad for backtesting because: - It shows the last traded price, not real-time bid/ask - It doesn't show the actual quotes available when you'd need to trade - It doesn't capture the bid-ask spread widening during volatility - Many strikes have stale prices or no trading volume [CBOE DataShop](https://datashop.cboe.com/) costs $2K for a reason - it's the actual exchange data showing real quotes. Your backtest is built on data that doesn't reflect what you'd actually face in live trading. ## The One-Month Timeframe is Laughable You need to test this through: - The COVID crash (March 2020) - SPY moved 10% daily - The Volmageddon event (February 2018) - VIX went from 15 to 50 overnight - The August 2024 Japan unwind - SPY gapped down 3% in minutes - The SVB banking crisis (March 2023) - The 2022 bear market with constant 2-3% daily swings **I guarantee your strategy would have blown up the account in ANY of those events.** Go get free data from somewhere and backtest 2020-2025. I bet you'll see your equity curve has multiple -80% to -100% drawdowns. ## What You Should Actually Do If you REALLY want to trade 0DTE: 1. **Test on 5+ years of data minimum** 2. **Paper trade for 3 months first** (not just backtest, actual live paper trading to feel the executions) 3. **Size tiny** - risk only 1-2% of account per trade, MAX 4. **Have hard stop losses** - close at -3x your max gain, no exceptions 5. **Skip high-volatility days** - if VIX > 20, don't trade 6. **Don't trade around major announcements** (FOMC, CPI, etc.) 7. **Have an exit plan BEFORE entry** - know exactly when you'll close But honestly? **This strategy is a ticking time bomb.** The math is against you. You're selling insurance with terrible risk/reward. Eventually, the crash comes, and it wipes you out. ## The Bottom Line Your backtest shows this works in calm markets. Cool. Everyone knows that. The question isn't "does this work when markets are calm?" It's **"what happens when markets aren't calm?"** And the answer is: you lose big, fast, and without warning. If you have $10K to trade with and you're okay losing $5K+ in a single day for a chance at making $100/day, then go for it. But don't say nobody warned you. The graveyard of retail traders is filled with people who had profitable 0DTE backtests. **TL;DR: Your backtest timeframe is way too short, you're not accounting for tail risk, the risk/reward is terrible (risking $1000 to make $100), and this strategy has a 100% historical failure rate over long enough timeframes. It WILL blow up your account eventually.** Anyone else here blown up an account on short premium strategies? I'd love to hear war stories.

drntrader

Yes, my guess we will continue up Monday since we did not break down 657 on the SPY

Vast_Cricket

I anticipate that and sold most awhile ago putting in fixed assets. To play AI I loaded smaller software companies lower priced stock. Portfolio is well balanced. Mine loses 1/2 as much as SPY index or 1/3 as much as QQQ.

Embarrassed-Park-674

GLD & SPY gonna moon u heard it here first

AverageWSBUser

🌽 climbing back up. What does that mean for GLD & SPY?

grwalther

SPY/QQQ 0dte have both been a "giveth / taketh" for me....some days I can make +$30k ....other days I lose -$30k..... Sadly, the +$30k never feel as good as how bad the -$30k feels. Trading 0dte is perpetual agony because your wins never feel big enough and the losses always feel so avoidable

568Byourself

I have to stop playing SPY even tho it’s the most fun. I keep picking winning positions but panic selling before they’re winners. I don’t have time to watch the charts all day due to my job. Real talk, how screwed are calls for late November/December on all this pile of garbage: BULL, BITF, PATH, POET, RZLV, LAR I blew up my port except for calls on these 6 overpriced tickers, but do yall see any hope on some of these having a pop in the next 2 months

Juvival

Yes, the Gamma Exposure for 0DTE Options is huge, small movements of the SPY will change Delta very quickly. But the results stay the same, even tho the Gamma Exposure was high. Can you elaborate how this would affect this strategy? About IV - I know that IV can rise very quickly even at the end of the day, causing a loss if it happens. But apparently that doesn't happen very often, therefore the expected return for this strategy is still positive, or am I wrong?

Spartan656

Are you managing these trades or just letting them run into the end of the day? If you use SPY vs SPX there is assignment risk. Tastytrade talks alot about zero dte spx iron butterflies. I've tried some myself, but in my experience the spread between bid and ask is like $40 to $60. Mine were all started at like 10am per their mechanics, but i took too many losses and decided to stop. Their average profit on their back testing wasn't that much more than the size of the spread so I thought some of their returns were from their methodology of assuming mid price on their trades. 

WetLumpyDough

You’re gambling. Have an acceptable loss and close out if it doesn’t go your way. Holding 2 week out SPY options you’re gonna have to stomach seeing it -50% at times

te7037

I do paper trading and have lost more money on buying SPY calls that buying its puts

ShitJester

Port down 6,7% in three days just holding stocks while SPY remains flat. I should probably apply for a job as a fund manager at ARK funds.

jimmyxs

Thanks for the reminder.. i'll need to find out more about the regional banking situation. Also i'm reminded there was a moment (before Friday open i think, cant be sure) but SPY was down more than QQQ. I found that interesting, seems the AI play might be the "safe" play after all? lol.. I'm in Australia, which is probably the worst place to be in terms of reacting quick to events. But there were a couple of times already, I woke up to see that the big dips happened while i slept and had quickly been recovered by the time I logged in.. so in a way, the timezone differences helped save me from overtrading and over-reacting! lol

yeppbrep

!banbet SPY $332 1d

DerpyTrader

I do the same thing! It adds up in the end. Although, on Thursday I was up 300% on of those same day SPY options and let it ride. I could of made $200 but instead got like $40. Still happy though!

Ok-Perspective-1624

Bro if you can't buy and hold SPY on Robinhood you can fuck it up somewhere else too lol

Individual_Error_428

So what I lost everything. So what if I had put that into SPY I would be up now. This or that blah blah blah hindsight cuckery. NO, I’M STILL A HERO. I charged into the fire, fuel the decline, provided liquidity, and witnessed the compression of security lifecycles. And I’ll do it again in a heartbeat lmao. Life goes on. Time passed. The impossibility remains. Expiration is a promise.

Steve_Petrov

I took a quick look of the performance of a SPY LEAPS [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1o9hin7/comment/nk3hi0x/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1o9hin7/comment/nk3hi0x/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)

Steve_Petrov

TBH I only started buying SPY LEAPS recently after doing research. I got OTM LEAPS tho cuz I'm broke. But looking at the SPY 18 Dec 2026 590 call option. If you bought this ATM call on Oct 17 2024, now you'd have a gain of roughly 54.5% today, while SPY itself gained around 14.1% in the same period.

bitNation

Just playing about that. The truth is... You're figuring out what doesn't work, but I'm not sure if you understand why. If I'm reading right, $11k loss? What you're doing isn't working. Looks like you're throwing spaghetti at a wall, man. You can't "play" options. I don't do it, because I don't have time or desire to research the "Greeks" for every play as one would need. If you want to get rich, it's a slow, steady grind. Index funds like VOO, SPY. Even buying the dip on Amazon and Google, etc. I love this subreddit for bringing me new companies to invest in, but if you're serious about building wealth, you've just learned your lesson. Hopefully. Final non-wallstreetbets advice: use that big brain of yours and stop chasing a screenshot of someone who hit big.

myskincareaddiction_

What kind of returns on 1Y ATM SPY LEAPS?

Odd_Finger_5142

I’ve had decent luck trading 0DTE SPX options from 10:00 AM to noon EST, catching the post-open stabilization. The last hour (3:00-4:00 PM) can also work for bigger moves, but it’s riskier. Try SPX over SPY for tax benefits and keep your position sizes small to manage the volatility.

myskincareaddiction_

OP was doing SPY 0DTE

CorrectAmoeba6191

My SPY $500 call. Got 3 chick's number from the bar. Confirmed date for tomorrow. Yoloing sushi. Saw a horse today. Hey some of us got it and some don't. Owls are bad luck. Get rekt.

Youngbull-xo

Nah cap cuz how you getting in SPY calls with $20 ……

AxemanFromMA

#currently deep ITM. I’m a SPY $600 Call rn. Got 2 chicks # from the bar and one of the chicks confirmed a date for Sunday. We are Yoloing Mexican food. I also saw an owl today. Good luck. Godspeed

Steve_Petrov

You can try it for yourself, set aside like $2k-3k and buy a +1y ATM SPY call

metrohash

Every SPX contract is essentially 10 SPY contracts at a parallel strike price. If you’re on a broker that charges fees/commissions trading 10x less contracts per trade adds up significantly. SPX is also tax advantaged as it’s an index not an ETF. 60% of gains are taxed as long term capital gains and 40% are taxed as short term capital gains regardless of what expiration you’re trading. With every contract basically being 10x SPY contracts option costs can be inhibitive to a small account but that’s the only real downside I can think of.

SunriseSurprise

I'd love to some day see a case study of how this works. I've thought about doing it but I tend to play 0-1dte scalps instead. More work because I have no patience, but I can imagine over the long haul SPY leaps on dips would pay solidly with little work.

orangeyougladiator

So I was doing the math earlier, and with the portion of my portfolio I’m willing to gamble I could get 425:1 leverage on SPY. Only issue is a single 0.57% move in the wrong direction is liquidation. On the other hand, 0.57% in the right direction is an easy $16k.

Garbage-Disposal-938

next time tell us about SPY calls

eyerollingsex

I like how SPY plummeted to 480 on the week of April 1st That shit was a joke for real

cathode_01

Why not just buy $700k worth of SPY which only has a 35% margin requirement (for me, on etrade anyway) and then use the margin to write a crapload of deep ITM LEAP puts on $OPEN. Then you get the gains from SPY going up for the next year and also the premium from the puts plus the gains from OPEN going up, and if it goes down it doesn't fuck you the same way as your covered calls do.

AverageWSBUser

Tinfoil moment. Asia market opens, gold goes up. NA market opens, gold goes down. US takes profit, social media targeting China & Gold, SPY goes up. Does 🥭 want us to keep buying gold?.. So SPY calls on Monday?!

taplar

If *you know* that a crash is coming, then you could look to go long on some put options. Looks like there is already some volume available on 2028 put options for SPY.

lurker165473

I didn't do technical analysis, just buying when SPY is red. https://preview.redd.it/70x8jt5rprvf1.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e2d8bfa1235955cc6e8a8d0c64c00228b0236ac

BusinessGoblins

I'm going to be a responsible man and sell cash secured puts on SPY instead of gambling on 0DTE's

IIINevermoreIII

Vix is usually tailored toward SPY, sometimes stocks that follow the trend with spy can go down a .05% but I wouldn’t really rely on it for individual stocks. Others please correct me if I’m wrong or have more info 

Steve_Petrov

Buy LEAPS on SPY dip then go enjoy life until 1 month before expiration

Arti_NYC

Not really, its your entry you time and your exit, I don’t play zero DTE’s I did only 2 times on Tesla and SPY

theummeower

0DTE SPY calls and Puts?

unusual_xyz

Why play Netflix for 0DTE and not SPY?

Krammsy

I sold SPY long dated at the open, reopened tighter dates, all Calendars & Diags, a good day.

brucekeller

Never go full ber. I came in to today with some SPY puts, but quickly changed my tune from the way the market was acting and got some calls instead, made out with a profit instead of getting destroyed by not being adaptive.

Clame

🗣️green bars to the ceiling! Buying calls on SPY. if you took a screen shot, boy; better sell that high!

Mean-Imagination6670

lol, I feel that but I’m the opposite. All I do is day trade 0DTE, it used to just be SPY but then got hooked a couple of weeks ago on SPX with the crazy gains you could get on just one contract vs SPY where I usually had to buy at least a few to make what I made this week. Could’ve made thousands more just yesterday but sold my put too early. But yep, had the feeling you weren’t a novice at trading in general. And like I said, holding 10 makes me anxious, never mind 15!

Crazy_Donkies

Only on SPY.

WritheDev

Been trading years, only options I ever do are covered calls for passive income when I'm already ITM. I could tell SPY was gonna spike since taco seemed distracted from the normal weekend pump & dump and saw a cheap call. 0dte though, made me nervous all day, but for a 1500 day trade profit I think it was worth it. I think I will do 3dte or leaps in the future, too much anxiety

remote_001

SPY is back up .62 percent yet my port is down 15 percent. wtf guys. Who broke it?

Mindless-Bug-8397

Vibes and market are primed for a correction.choppy waters., better to buy some SPY puts to hedge your portfolio. 100 SPY 600P/550P Nov 21st.

mrtomd

I am typical bull, yesterday SPY puts recovered almost all my calls. Didn't trade today.

WSB-mods-are-

You can pay for kids with SPY calls

Mindless-Bug-8397

Whoever didn't liquidate today will be crying cabbages in coming weeks. SPY -20% by Nov 21st

kayvonte

SPY looks so unstable. 650 Monday probably

Professional_Con_007

Market has moved up and down over 70 points since last week .  That is the SPY 600 everyone was looking for but won't ever see.