SPY

no1_finland_enjoyer

I mean 10 points for SPX is 1 for SPY/QQQ, so there's that to keep in mind; if you're holding to expiry it absolutely makes sense to do a debit spread since you save a lot on the premium and should have much better exit in case it goes against you - OP on the other hand seems to scalping, in which case a debit spread basically kills most of the profit, and short time of the trade should let you mostly ignore the premium as you're catching short term price changes anyway or should exit quickly if it goes against you anyway

Dazzling-Cheetah5951

Every time SPY dropped 4% in one day in history (even though the average following day average point gain was 180 points like Friday was good, not quite that much but a bounce), 1 week after that 4% drop, the market was at least a few points even lower than the 4% drop except for 1 day and even on that day it was only up a few small percentage points pretty sure, still most days it was lower. However, in 3 months it was usually higher, except for the biggest financial crises, if it is one. It's very rare for S and P to drop 4%, but there is solid data for how it performs the day after and the week after, and even 3 months later it's usually up from the crash but not in the biggest collapses.

Odd-Block-2998

SPY only down 6%

Dazzling-Cheetah5951

Mean if AI bubble is popping and crashing, don't think SPY will hold up and not also crash another 20%+ on the way down even if it's primarily QQQ that drops 40%+. SPY may not fall as much, but it will still fall, bc people will selloff their ETFS (401Ks) since boomers hold most of the 401k money and are at the end of retirement and won't risk another Dotcom or 08 like crash this late in their life.

Dazzling-Cheetah5951

Reading a lot of coping after scanning posts about the Ai bubble, and many are making valid arguments SPY won't crash as much as QQQ and should be okay. My problem is that SPY was only so high because of Ai, and most non-Ai stocks are down 50-70% already, what's been called the "K-market"......so if Ai crashes too, I don't see how those 60%+ of stocks are going to withstand the fall together. Let's say they rotate out of Ai and back into those stocks. Okay, but most of the ETFs are heavily weighted into AI stocks right now as a %age. Also, AI is consensus being viewed as the only future to keep the markets and economies up (If you don't have Ai, you will be a poor nation popular theory) as economies will be predicated on it predominantly for production, etc. Even though right now, the money has moved into consumer staples and pharma, many of those stocks are reaching absurd valuations too, like 40pe on Walmart and Costco. Just don't see how the rest of the market can't fall further if Ai crashes since the ETFs people will be selling (401ks) are mostly AI but also contain the others.

Dazzling-Cheetah5951

October 28th, 2026: "If the Dems win, the market will CRASH"- Potus Nov 3rd, 2026- Dems win in a landslide Nov 5th- worst 1 day crash for SPY and NASDAQ in years if not history, one of the worst all time, in the top 50 at least. Note: Every single great bubble crash took around 6 months to hit rock bottom after the bubble popped.

Dazzling-Cheetah5951

"If the Dems win, the market will crash"- DJT- October 28th, 2026...... Nov 3rd- Dems win Nov 5th- one of the worst crashes of SPY and Nasdaq in history, if not the worst point drop in 1 day. It doesn't drop 20-50% in ONE DAY. It takes 3-6 months.

confused_teabagger

SPY short term anyway

Krammsy

I hate XSP, if I want the small size I use SPY, much better liquidity, despite the tax advantages of XSP, SPY also has better premium. It's even better than SPX, but for it's size and resultant fees.

Low_Foundation8900

no just that this was a massive oversell, of course SNDK and MU, I still wouldn't touch SPY with a ten-foot pole but AI stocks been getting hammered and its just strange

iLoveAloha

Very interesting. How wide do you normally go on your SPX credit / SPY debit spreads? Also, do you prefer not to use XSP for the debits because of bad liquidity?

ILove0DTE

Tomorrow 0DTE SPY calls full power

Then-Wealth-1481

That’s just SPY. Semiconductor index is down 40% since June. Nasdaq down -15%.

ShyElk84

you need to look at which stock outputformed SPY last week. double down on that

PatientMoney88

Have you considered Mariner? It is often easier to manage this strategy if done through an established brokerage that has a relationship with Mariner. They maneuvered very well during the tariff crash mostly by closing the bull put contract early. This did lose the premium for the prematurely closed contract but then more contracts were bought at same time of market uncertainty (best time for this strategy) which covered for the loses, and even brought in more. They use, like most others in their business, 6-week puts, 18 - 20% margin. Since SPY activity follows European options rule and these cannot be exercised until date of expiration, with the tariff crash, they just needed to close the upcoming 2 weeks of contracts. As the fundamentals of the market were otherwise solid, the index recovered over the coming weeks and we were back playing ball. I have done it since 2021, returns 5 - 6%, fees are 0.65% of AUM. Minimum for this strategy is I believe 1M. If they can generate 60K in an overlay strategy with me spending 0 minutes/year of my time, more than happy to pay the hard working soul executing this strategy $6500 per year. If it was not an overlay strategy, I would not have paid any management fees, as I don't with all my other investments.

bearhunter429

#Bols think bottom is near when SPY is barely down -5% from all time high LMAO🤌⛹🏾

IvetteMccoy

with longer-dated SPY options, be careful about adding too many confirmation indicators. GEX and Gamma Flip already give you a picture of the positioning, while RSI and ADX are looking at price behaviour from a different angle.. they can end up filtering out a really good setup simply because price hasn't confirmed yet

Afflictedx1

How are you determining what direction QQQ/SPY will go?

Afflictedx1

QQQ and SPY options etc have basically no bid/ask spread

dogefool88

SPY 700 Monday eod

Super-Activity-4675

they're just jealous they didn't fuck the spy and only got fucked by the SPY.

Full-Passage4412

he can fuck whoever as long as it's not the SPY :kekw:

unhappyreach_

You don't need to be Chinese to be a Chinese SPY lol

unhappyreach_

Imagine getting busted for banging a mid-grade Chinese SPY Must be lonely at the top

Super-Activity-4675

I turned an 1800 investment into 11k and I sold way too early Thursday. There will come a day when the SPY opens down 100+ points.

Happy-Champion1661

we already tried the bounce on Friday and failed. I bought MU shares on Thursday last minutes candle but I sold already at +10%. No one wants to hold the bag on a weekend so yes maybe Monday is green. Or maybe its a trap. Idk yet. Gonna see vibes, but I honestly dont like what I see here. I am usually a big dip buyer but it feels strange this time. \---- btw I need to correct myself on the previous point, I am actually wrong. For SPY it's basically 50/50. The nasdaq100 has more green than red days (> 6.5%) actually. The reason being during the dotcom bubble there were a lot of violent dead cats (22days > +6.5% and 18days < -6.5% according to claude, big if true)

AgitatorSupreme

When you say index funds are you talking SPX/SPY/QQQ options or shares in SPY/VOO and other various S&P ETFs? Because that is what I did and made jack shit given all the volatility. 

ammm72

!banbet SPY 700 7d

RetrieverDoggo

We've already hit the QQQ and SPY 200 daily ema I think

Azurebbit

Two questions: SPY or Chinese spy AND socks or don't let your balls touch?

Oceano531

Do you remeber what price SPY was trading at when you bought these put? Must have been deep in the money to get for .06

NotMe357

I'm very disappointed in Jensen on this. I mean....She doesn't ever look good. He should go after Russian SPY. Most of them look better.

SPQR_191

SPY

SteamyGouda

SPY was $629 barely 8 months ago, we are not close at all

RabbitWiilli

VOO has a lower expense ratio than SPY. VTI includes small caps and mid caps and doesn’t just track the S&P 500 so that’s up to what you want to expose yourself to. QQQ tracks the nasdaq and not the S&P.

n1ck90z

It's as if the price of SPY was correlated in some way to the price of many other stocks 🤔

GammaFlowSPY

Appreciate the honesty about SPX being supporting evidence rather than confirmation. The correlation with SPY, and the overlap with earlier research, are important limitations to keep in view. The random-schedule comparison is particularly interesting. Beating 97% of schedules on max drawdown, while P&L remains roughly in line with random skipping, suggests the filter may be doing more to control downside than to generate additional returns. That’s a more specific and useful claim than simply pointing to the higher Sharpe. One thing I’d be curious about: in the SPXW breakdown, the 1-week book has a higher Sharpe than the combined book (0.93 vs. 0.85), while the 1-month book is lower (0.67). Have you looked at whether that difference is statistically meaningful, or could it reflect the number of observations and the mix of trades in each book?

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Ben_f157 (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $737.74 → $732.00 | -0.8% | 1d | Lost |

ashdbs

SPY 765 MONDAY :money:

jmc774

A lot of stocks are already at 52 week lows. Why should they keep going down just because SPY does? Makes no sense

FlashAlphaLab

Yes out of sample is what convinced me to release it as endpoint * **SPX weeklies, Feb 2022 to Oct 2026:** Sharpe 0.85 vs 0.63 for selling every day. Max drawdown was $622k vs $2.17M, which beat more than 97% of 1,000 random schedules skipping the same number of days. P&L was $1.84M vs $3.52M, about what random skipping made. SPX shares SPY's selloffs and earlier research had touched it, so I count this as support, not confirmation. * **SPY 2017:** Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.70, so it lost to selling every day. Max drawdown was $7.5k vs $13.2k, but a calm year doesn't test a filter like this much. Here are the SPXW results for February 2022 to October 2026, at one contract per trade: |Book|Sharpe filter|Sharpe every day|Max DD filter|Max DD every day| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Combined|0.85|0.63|$622,056|$2,166,772| |1 week|0.93|0.73|$300,356|$772,954| |1 month|0.67|0.55|$441,737|$1,443,837|

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/JPOW_Used_No_Lube (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▲ | $737.66 → $765.00 | +3.7% | 2d | Lost |

Collapse1

start by buying SPX 0DTE (or SPY is u dont have that much) every day to feel the flow of monies

Full-Passage4412

jensen rotation into Chinese SPY ... calls on hang seng :kekw:

shadylex

Monday gonna be like $SPY :shrek: :shrek: :shrek:

roke34442

To me, the rally on Wednesday was fake. Most of the big gains were from companies I never heard of. Once I was confident in my theory I started buying SPY puts that would expire on Friday. All the rally continued, my puts were Losing value so I averaged down as best I could. In hindsight I wish I would have bought more. When the market crashed on Thursday, I sold them all during the first hour of trading for 300% profit. Those puts eventually grew as high as 2,500%. I missed out on the biggest gains of my life but am happy with the profit I made. In the future I plan to try to have a little more patience and confidence in my convictions.

Teiagon

The more it drops the closer it comes to a buying price. A 20% drop in SPY, VIX >30 is most definitely a buying zone.

Mozart69-Nice

I had a boring boomer portfolio for like 2 years, mostly SPY and SGOV. Very stable, very boring. Last week I went balls deep into SOXL and TQQQ, I feel young again.

McDonaldStaffMember

Really simple terms is like waking up and saying....Hey I bet the SPY is going to go down and it's going to hit a price of $755 or so today. There's definitely more factors and terminology involved as well but I'll let you decided to pursue that portion. Specifically Thursday if you would've bought a put (bet going down) for a $755 price. The cost for that "bet" wouldve been around $25. Ay around noon Thursday that $25 bet wouldve turned to around $1800-$2000. Putting just $100 would've gotten you $8000 in about 4 hours. There was alot to be made....ALOT!!! I didnt have capital and didnt play and disnt want to fomo and buy in at the wrong time but for the SPY to drop $30 in one day is literally crazy. I tried looking for a screenshot but too many to go through lol

Dazzling-Cheetah5951

9:30am Bull Trap fake pump to .5% SPY, some tech stocks up 5%, then a repeat of Thursday's crash \~1 trillion+ lost the rest of the day.

joe4942

Past 1 year: * MAGS: +2.8% * QQQ: +7.6% * SPY: +9.5% * XLK (Tech): +14.3% * RSP (Equal weight S&P): +15.1% * DFIV (International Value): +18.8% * BBCA (Canada): +20.1% * AVUV (US Small Cap Value): +22.4% * AVLV (US Large Cap Value): +26%

TheStorm007

A few points? You mean like 30? OP bought APY puts and SPY fell a shit ton. Simple as that.

WSB-mods-are-

Everything! Were you not trading then? Probably one of the funniest wsb blunders. They thought it would dump and SPY proceeded to have the best month on 2 years

joe4942

Past 1 year: * SPY: +9.5% * QQQ: +7.6% * AVUV (US Small Cap Value): +22.4% * AVLV (Large Cap Value): +26% * DFIV (International Value): +18.8% * BBCA (Canada): +20.1%

Both_Experience_8187

If you own SPY you already own AAPL, NVDA, etc.

StormOneTrick

why VOO and not SPY or VTI or QQQ? Those are the popular ones I’ve been hearing.

Public_Ideal84

You know what? In this market, I’m not even sure. Fuck it, SPY 760 Monday 🤷‍♂️

vermilli21

Possible but you gotta factor the other sectors keeping SPY afloat right now. I'll be watching to see what NQ does, if it gets back above 27.5k (We get stuck in the channel). If we reject then yeah tech sector will drag everything down for SPY to 720 to fill the gaps

shadylex

Manifesting $SPY opening >740 Monday :shrek:

nutsbonkers

I have 100% in RSP, and I've been trading SPX options on margin. I just started a month ago, and I've only gone negative by like 40 bucks once, and my account is up 10% over SPY 🤷‍♂️ initial investment was 25k

Quienmemandovenir

SPY -5% in one day is not normal, go and check how many times has happened

Gunpla_novice13

I'd lean toward buying ITM LEAPS during the market drop, rather than waiting for IV to fall and buying OTM. The reason is that your target is SPY recovering just 5% above its previous ATH. ITM gives you more intrinsic value, higher delta, and less dependence on IV dropping or SPY making a massive move. OTM calls are cheaper, but their value is much more sensitive to IV and time decay, and they need a strong recovery to pay off. Essentially, you're trading a better entry price and higher probability of profit with ITM calls against cheaper premiums and greater leverage with OTM calls. Personally, I'd compare the expected return at your target price for both strikes, using same expiration and a conservative IV assumption. That will tell you which one offers better value rather than simply looking at the cheaper premium.

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Western_Coffee_5445 (1W - 1L, 50%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▲ | $735.00 → $751.93 | +2.3% | 1d | Lost |

Leafcane

He doesn't own 100 shares of SPY. That's your confusion. He bought a contract that gave him to *right to sell 100 shares* of SPY. That contract was initially bought for pennies on the dollar because it expired at the end of the day and SPY was far above 742. Who in their right mind would buy a contract that let's them sell a stock for 742 when market value is 760+? He spent $700 on this worthless contract. Fast forward to that same afternoon, SPY crashes all the way down to 730. Suddenly his $700 investment is worth $100,000+. His gain was not from executing the contact to sell his shares because he never owned them in the first place (that would be a $700,000 portfolio lol). His gain was by selling someone else the "contract" AKA the right to sell SPY at 742 a share. By the end of the day that contact was extremely valuable, 100x more than what he paid for it.

Thalenori

100 shares of SPY for 730 dollars and sell the same shares for 742 making 12x100=1200 dollars but suddenly its worth 40 000???

GammaFlowSPY

Thanks for sharing this - I read through it. The distinction between loss concentration and a consistent profit advantage is particularly useful, especially your caveats about execution costs and multiple testing. The one-month SPY short-put result also caught my attention: the unfiltered strategy had the highest Sharpe, and the tested GEX/VRP filters lowered it. That’s directly relevant to what I’m investigating, rather than assuming a filter should help across every structure and horizon. One clarification: was GEX used only as an **entry** filter, with exits determined by the predefined holding rules, or could a subsequent GEX regime change also trigger an exit? Источники

TechniCruller

Lmk before you sell so I can load up on SPY puts

poopy_wizard132

Isn't SPY like 5% from it's ATH?

GammaFlowSPY

SPY can be a reasonable long-term investment, but I’d distinguish “safe from losses” from “a way to build purchasing power over time.” The point isn’t just diversification. It’s giving your money a chance to grow faster than inflation. According to UBS, U.S. equities delivered an annualized real return of about 6.6% from 1900 through 2025. That’s the broad U.S. stock market, not SPY specifically, and it’s historical performance—not a promise about future returns. There’s also a reason many long-term investors are comfortable matching the market rather than trying to beat it. S&P Dow Jones Indices found that 79% of actively managed U.S. large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025. That statistic applies to professional funds, not individual retail traders, but it shows that even professional management doesn’t make outperformance automatic. Warren Buffett made a famous ten-year bet on this idea. From 2008 through 2017, the S&P 500 index fund he selected gained 125.8% in total, while the five funds-of-funds selected by Protégé Partners each finished behind it. It’s one historical example, not proof that index funds always win, but it illustrates the challenge of picking managers who can beat the market after costs. None of this makes SPY a savings account. It can fall substantially, so keep your emergency fund and money you’ll need in the near future separate. Investing a fixed amount every month can help you stick to a process, but it doesn’t prevent losses or guarantee a profit. For the practical setup, compare SPY with lower-cost S&P 500 ETFs such as VOO or IVV. Check fund expenses, brokerage fees, recurring-purchase options, and the tax treatment of the account. The iPhone isn’t the issue—the brokerage and account behind the app matter much more. You don’t have to outperform the market to build wealth. You need a sustainable contribution habit, manageable costs, and a plan you can stick with when the market stops being fun.

_slofish

200k today is enough to retire on in 30-40 years if you buy SPY or VOO shares and never touch it btw

BarbellPadawan

I think you mean SPY

Realistic-Series9

I bought SPY puts on Tuesday, expecting the price to drop. Since I was only risking a small amount and treating it more like a gamble, I went way out of the money and bought 10 SPY $744 puts while SPY was trading around $763. Each contract cost me $0.04, so I spent just $40 total. I ended up selling all 10 contracts for $300, which I was pretty happy with at the time. But those same contracts eventually became worth almost $13,000. It's crazy to think that $40 could've turned into nearly $13K. But realistically would I have actually held through $1K, $5K, or even $10K without selling? Probably not. It's easy to look back and think about what could've been but holding through those kinds of gains is a completely different story.

MeggEggs

Can someone explain what SPY is and why it popped off?

Pure-Ice5527

You have to take the down with the ups, I assume you were heavy in the AI trade hoping for quick money like so many others. What I’d suggest is the bulk of your money should be in the SPY and then have a smaller separate account for active trading you don’t mind losing. The SPY is up 7% this year, a decent year in terms of returns, that allows you sleep at night if the bulk of your money is in there.

PurpleFilth

SPY calls a month or two out will print so fucking hard right now

Sick0h

Anyone who has followed markets at all knows that Jensen has been fucking with SPY for years. He’s taken good care of SPY, made love to SPY, sometimes broken SPY’s heart.

Extension-Temporary4

First, I’m not a big believer in international. I don’t understand those markets well enough. Also, long term, foreign has never outperformed US equities. Not today it can’t, it just never has. And there’s a reason for that, with few exceptions, no one is as pro business as the US. Germany is the manufacturing hub of Europe. It’s seen zero growth in 20+ years. Eurostox has seen zero growth in 20 years. Meanwhile the S&P is doubling every 4 years. Second, diversity is one way to protect yourself. The problem is, those “diversified” funds are no longer diversified. They are extremely too heavy as well and extremely exposed to tech. Go look at the top holdings of SPY, QQQ, IXN, XLK, SPYG, SPYV, etc. you’re in for a surprise . . . They all hold the same equities. They are all extremely top heavy. They’re not as diversified as they once were. 

Ill-Ad1603

QQQ barely down 13.8% (SPY 4%) and retards are already getting liquidated. What will happen to us when QQQ declines 40%?

Paul_Robert_

Underperforming SPY: 😐 Underperforming a HYSA: 🫤 Getting outperformed by a guy who keeps posting about how his ass smells: 🫪

Specific_Virus8061

maybe selling naked calls to buy puts i.e. synthetic shorting SPY?

bearhunter429

#In the last 6 months SPY is up a whole 0.3% LMAO🤌⛹🏾

Sufficient_Habit5091

Remember when this Chinese SPY boned a Federal Reserve researcher, had a child with him, all so she could send secrets to China? https://i.imgur.com/R0ORXC8.png https://i.imgur.com/YK48lj6.png

ScreenPuzzleheaded48

I put a few K into 12/18 SPY $703 puts in mid Oct and those did pretty well yesterday but easily coulda been worthless. I’m fine small risk here/there but you guys losing 50% of your portfolio in a single day are wild.

Sprig3

This is fine I guess. But, what the market needs is loans to be cheaper. There is a lot of debt out there and not enough "real" cash (lol). If only someone hadn't done stuff to juice inflation and "weaken the dollar", fed could cut rates and the upcoming AI debt-pocalypse could be avoided. (If SPY is green on Monday, ignore the above, I always knew it would work out.)

ChairmanMeow1986

It was a weekend risk sell off, we've all seen how the US Admin typically waits for weekend to escalate with Iran. Money that jumped in Thursday, taking a quick easy gain, before the weekend was how I read it. If you're bullish what your most likely to see tomorrow it a dead cat bounce to a higher high, that probably fades, but than rallies into end of day. 740$ on SPY and 660$ on QQQ, flipping to support would be bullish to me (wouldn't love RSP losing 215$ as well)

AffectionateHawk4422

Sure... That's exactly why people are coming after you. This is a betting channel of options and high risk stocks. And you show SPY and SCHD. Laughable.

MrBrightsighed

What are you even talking about dude, the SPY is up today and only down 5% the last month. Were you full ported in Sandisk calls or some shit, positions?

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/B-Jaxon (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▲ | $733.00 → $745.00 | +1.6% | 1d | Lost |

TootsHib

no you're still up 17% ytd and beating SPY..

prsmedia_

Watch break of 731.88 for more down on SPY.

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/IWishIwasAwhale1 (2W - 11L, 15%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $733.00 → $715.00 | -2.5% | 1d | Lost |

ScreenPuzzleheaded48

I parked a few hundred in SPY earlier this year and I’m still up like 6% YTD. Going heavy on individual picks carries tons of risk.

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Fluid_Product6292 (0W - 2L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▲ | $735.33 → $742.68 | +1.0% | 1d | Lost |

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $700.00 (below) | $736.06 | -4.9% | Fri, Nov 13, 7:51 PM ET |

eileyle

!banbet SPY 700 1w

Significant_Speed854

No and if so not until SPY is at 1100, I think those prices were elevated "deliberately" by MM to fuck over retail, sell calls to retail, and offload their shares at a high price

SteakEater137

Is there a single stock out there that has retained value over the last few months? Almost everything seems like a constant pump n dump, even broad funds like the SPY. Only stocks I actually feel comfortable holding long term are some midstream oil ones who pretty much can guarantee high dividend payouts with how solid their financials are. Everything else I just flip or I end up regretting it.

ICallASpadeASpade

Does anybody know if I can do a chargeback on all of my 0SPY calls today? I don’t like how they turned out (lost 100%) and want my money back.

haze_from_deadlock

The 1W RSI on SPY printed some huge bear divergences from 26 May 2026 to 10 Aug 2026 to 5 Oct 2026 that preceded the fall from $781 to $732. This indicated a positive risk/reward for short positions.

RayzeGameTooSweaty

SPY could go down to 700