SPY

Superente_

Today is the start of the biggest santa pump you have ever seen. The selloff was an overreaction. AI is not going anywhere and more regulation in the AI Buildout is only beneficial longterm. SPY 800 eoy. You all know it.

Jesmasterzero

The flip side of this is that most of the time this dude would have lost $700, which in itself isn't a huge amount but if you do it enough times..... Also this is a fairly extreme outlier due to the massive (for SPY) moves, for every post like this, there will be a few hundred people who would have lost money. Trading options and using leverage are risky even when you know what you're doing as a retail investor.

ozthinker

Yesterday volume was only 2x that of Wednesday, for SPY and QQQ. While it was still "the market". it is not every market participant, which is the real representation.

ozthinker

Don't read too much into the political blame game nonsense. Democrats love a thriving economy as much as the Republicans. The economy is the only thing uniting all Americans. Data center moratorium is only temporary, and meant to be quick and subtle without hurting economic and technological progress, and in the long term, guarantees AI sustainable future. Despite the big drawdown on Thursday, the volumes traded for SPY and QQQ each are only about 2x on Thursday compared to Wednesday.

bearhunter429

#The bottom for SPY will be somewhere around 0 LMAO🤌⛹🏾

ExiymDev

The entire point of the stock market is that it's forward facing and speculative. Here I have a forward facing speculative play (based on knowledge that few have) and here you are pooh poohing it. Go ahead, dump your savings into 0DTE SPY, I don't give a fuck. Save this comment and come back in 3 years and tell me I was wrong pussy

Sick0h

If SPY doesn’t end the year at least +10% it’ll be such an anomaly when paired with EPS growth.

Only_Mushroom

Think of the contract like a coin that allows him to sell shares at $737 per share. Each coin is the equivalent of 100 shares. The thing about these coins is that it has an expiration day that they're good til. The coin the OP bought allows them to sell 100 SPY shares per coin for $737per share no matter what the current 'regular' price the stock is at. But that coin/contract is only good until the end of day 11/5. The coin usually slow loses value if the stock price is over $737 because as the owner of the coin, why would you sell your shares for $737 each when the stock market is pricing them at a $740 or something. So by the end of the day if SPY is at $737.01 or more, the coin expires worthless At the beginning of the day SPY stock was $763. As the day wore on, the price of SPY kept dropping and dropping. Below $760, then $750, then $740, then $737 to $735. Now the coin that was worth $120 when OP bought it is now worth $290. And they owned 350 of them. So they sold all their coins In the last picture from OP the 350 coins that the person bought were worth \~$101k when they sold it, a profit of $59,240. So that means they were (101,000-59,240)/350 = $\~120/coin. At expiration, every $0.01 less that $737 SPY was, means the coin was worth $1 more. So that final price $101,500/350=$290, SPY was around $734.10 ($737-$2.90) when OP sold all the coins. Effectively doubling the investment from $120 per coin -> $290 per coin

OrganizationAble4181

Understood, going all in on SPY calls rn

account-names

Imagine the timing, ASTS announced a US Defense contract, on the exact day SPY tanked 5%. AND the upcoming Monday is their ER where they will have a collossal miss once again

InsanityDefined

Long time lurker, have dabbled with options and understand it at a slightly above-Mariana trench level. Question regarding your 2nd point. Since he had the contracts to sell SPY at $737-742 a share, you're saying he could've purchased 1 share of SPY at, to use your numbers, $730, when/how (logistically speaking, Robinhood app) would he be able to sell it for $742? Does Robinhood show a notification when trying to sell? Does he have to sell it within the Option screen? Does he have to execute the contract? This is (one of the) parts where I'm confused.

Astronomer_Soft

It's actually a smart strategy. SPY IV has been criminally too low for a while.

MusingsAndMind

This dip is awful. I've turned my 401k contributions off at work and won't turn them back on until SPY is at at least $780

mattcannon2

Pretty sure the old testament talks about buying SPY

gundahir

SPY is up YTD dude https://preview.redd.it/w73g4iwbrxzh1.png?width=219&format=png&auto=webp&s=dec188342aa4e0ce2dcd225581c374b033c5b38d

ToweringDelusion

Are you? Wednesday SPY increased a percent.

OnlyForMobileUse

I will try make this simple. Don't try to understand the terms yet, but for a start, a put option is a contract that allows whoever owns it to sell 100 shares of the underlying (in our case, SPY) at a "strike price" by a specified expiration date. For example, from the picture OP posted, he purchased a SPY $737 Put 11/5. This is simply a contract that says he can sell 100 shares of SPY at $737 (the strike price) until 11/5. He doesn't own any shares of SPY at all, he just owns the right to sell 100 shares of SPY at $737, which is obviously very valuable. As a dumb example, suppose SPY went down all the way to $637, then he could choose to purchase 100 shares of SPY at $637 and sell 100 shares at $737 dollars, instantly profiting 100 x 100 = $10,000. It's easy to see, then, why an option can be considered in certain circumstances as a leveraged version of holding 100 shares. At worst, SPY goes up over $737 and then your put expires worthless because the right to sell 100 shares for $737 when you'd have to first but them for some even higher price would simply lose you money. A call option is the opposite, you are buying the right to buy 100 shares at a given strike price by an expiration date. So if OP had instead purchased a $737 call and SPY had instead rose to $747, the call would increase in value rapidly, as the owner could exercise the call and then buy 100 shares at $737 (strike price) then immediately sell those shares at $747 to the market and net a profit of $10 x $100 = $1,000. When you're brand new to options a basic first step is call means you want price to go up, put means you want price to go down. How did OP make so much money? Well SPY opened at over $765 today and so a put with a $737 strike expiring today (called 0 dte options, because there are zero days until expiration, aka it expires today) would be worth almost nothing. Who would want the option to sell shares at $737 when the stock is worth more than $765? Remember, if the stock's price is above $737 then the put has no extrinsic value since you'd never sell shares at $737 when they're worth more than that. However, by the end of the day SPY closed at $733.00 meaning all of those worthless puts OP bought suddenly ended the day with $400 extrinsic value each ($737 strike minus $733 strike price, times 100 shares).

FuckingJPMAlgos

Lol have you seen the charts from 2000-2002? Go see how fast SPY QQQ AMZN etc went

FuckingJPMAlgos

I am just too depressed to put it in SPY. I am going to be SGOV for a few years.

DarkR124

Lol that ain’t a pop. AI is like 40% of the global economy at this point. If shit bursts we’re seeing SPY $450-$550.

ActJolly

SPY?

BarbellPadawan

SPY 420 is not a meme

GamblingMikkee

All good SPY flat and QQQ up 1% So essentially any name not in tech is down another 2-3% tomorrow

Beneficial-Ad-8127

We haven’t yet, once we hit SPY sub $700 than I would provably panic. By that time it’ll be too late.

Sick0h

I’m still in awe that the people that have been saying it’s a bubble since SPY was at 500 have been right the whole time. I should’ve listened 😭 

Loose_Hornet4126

How do you make profit from declining SPY performance? Is it possible for advanced hedge fund technical analysis?

Heineken_500ml

My prediction is SPY drills to 730 psych out bulz and force them to fold, then V next week

tipsystatistic

Are you retarded? Has it been 1 year since 2 days ago? SPY fell 15% when the Dems won in 2018. 1 year later it was up 11.4%. You guys are soft AF.

Alwaysfavoriteasian

Definitely a bounce coming off the 200 day MA. The Fibonacci sequence indicates a beta twirl to the 7th dimension. Calls on SPY.

Lexx4

I went all cash last week on what I had left after being a degenerate last year. I had been holding a single SPY. And I’ve been scalping 0dtes since a day before the election. Let me tell you it was cathartic to see my number go up while spy went waaaaay the fuck down.

MrCumStainBootyEater

if you ask this please just buy SPY and forget about it

no1_finland_enjoyer

Aw fuck autocorrect got me. I meant "but puts on margin up to the gills". But yeah pretty much this, I'm pretty sure some strikes did 10x easily throughout the day, ATM 1dte SPY on Wednesday close was around 3.50, I think? Going out like 20 usd down is pennies usually and those would have ended up worth 10+ EOD (especially if yoh didn't hold till expiry)

Old-Top-9939

SPY put in today better fall it is for me overseas haha

Nomad-2002

SPY -5.35% in 17.3 hrs (768.56 1:04 am -> 727.41 6:19 pm) But SPY still +6% for 2026 YTD.

Old-Top-9939

I got a PUT in today for SPY so hoping it goes down today

Old-Top-9939

Will SPY keep falling today?

Weekly_One8412

where do people see the nearest bounce on SPY? seems like a real possibility the next bounce is at 710-700, if there is no bounce today.

Nomad-2002

In addition to long-term holdings, I swing trade SPY. Used stops (manual & -1.1 trailing) to sell most at 766.90-766.94 yesterday. Later manually sold almost all at 767-768. On the falling knife today, I cost-averaged back in. No stops on that, since hoping for a V rebound. Down -3% on today's SPY buys.

BarbellPadawan

SPY is only down 4.6%. So only has to improve 4.6% to break even.

jumanjiz

Use SPX instead of SPY going forward. Better for taxes.

Shoganai_Hito

some chick at work was super impressed when i was talking about investing and VOO. Just wait until I teach her about SPY 0dte’s 🤌🏼

SmellsWeirdRightNow

I'm fully regarded and just buy stocks I like with no diversification. Made 30k+ off of Tesla, turned 7k into around 40k before I sold, which was not even the all time high. Think I held it for like 5 years? And then Elon started with his political regardation and I was like yeah this isn't gonna last long. I put 4k into NVIDIA a couple years ago, have sold my initial investment of 4k and bought SPY, Berkshire, and a little bit of BTC with it. Currently sitting at 15.6k, down 3k last 3 months but 🤷‍♂️

geneticswag

OP sold the contract, he didn’t execute it. So the value of the ability to have a guaranteed buyer of SPY @ 373 became worth 290, which is how 350 of them equaled 101,500 - he never acted or executed on the contract. Someone else purchased it and they made 140,000 - 101,500 = 38,500 through the contract owner buying SPY @ 373. The contract is two dimensional.

BEAR_STEARNS_CEO

The fact SPY is only up a dollar after the bloodbath today is pretty telling for tomorrow lol

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $700.00 (below) | $733.00 | -4.5% | Thu, Nov 12, 11:12 PM ET |

DueBenefit8336

!banbet SPY 700 1W

dinkmctip

Bruh the SPY is like 5% off all time highs. Normal people are just fine.

Comfortable_Flow5156

DIA VOO SPY keep it basic

Feedback_Entire

I'm not buying till SPY 630.

Sufficient_Habit5091

It's easy to talk fiscal discipline and have faith in Fed truly hitting 2% or whatever official print when SPY is only down 6%. When it's down 20% investors will be angrily demanding bailouts. Idk what will happen but I think it's probably still more likely than not they take action to prop things up.

pooterssssssssss

Yesterday was one of THE worst days we have ever seen... 5% loss in the SPY one day that is massive. TONS of people went broke today?

Leather_Bee_421

Is this a joke, everything is way fucking overvalued are you serious? Like everyone knows this isn’t sustainable right? We belong at SPY 670 right now but at this point we’ll go lower because of the panic. Everyone is pumping their paychecks into the market because trading rules have become way more lax and more and more ppl think they can get rich on speculation. Buffet was right, it’s a casino now. This is not the bottom, we might not hit it for another 3-6 months but it’s coming

QuaternionsRoll

They really aren’t that complicated. OP bought 350 put contracts at $2.00 each for a total of $700. Each put contract gives its owner the *option* to sell 100 shares of SPY to whomever sold the contract, at a strike price of $737 per share, at any time before the contract expires (in this case, market close at 4:00 PM EST today). SPY opened at $765 per share this morning, meaning OP’s put contracts were worthless when they bought them (why would you exercise the contracts to sell 35,000 SPY shares at $737 per share when you could just sell them on the market for $765 per share?). Furthermore, OP’s contracts would have expired worthless if SPY didn’t fall below $737 per share at some point before market close, which is extremely unlikely to occur in general - SPY just isn’t that volatile. Once it became likely to occur (SPY was already down to \~$740 by noon), the market price of OP’s put contracts shot up to $290 per contract for a total of $101,500. SPY ended up hitting a low of $733 at market close today, meaning that the put contracts hit a peak value of $140,000 just before expiration: the new owner of the contracts may have waited until 3:59 PM EST, purchased 35,000 shares of SPY on the market at $733 per share, then immediately exercised the contracts to sell the shares at $737 per share. (($737 per share) - ($733 per share)) \* (100 shares per contract) \* (350 contracts) = $140,000. So no, SPY could have hit $1,000,000 per share and OP would not have not have lost more than the initial $700, nor would they have been forced to close their position. In exchange, you accept that you are *literally thousands of times more likely* to lose the $700 than you are to make $101,500-$140,000.

Sick0h

Every stock in the S&P 500: -13%, +7%, -20%, +2%, etc SPY: +/- 0.03%

ICallASpadeASpade

New to trading. Really effed up my calls today (thought markets closed like any other business at 5:00, not 4:00). What time do they open generally? 9:00? Need to set an alarm as I moved most of my 401k into some pretty deep (SPY 800) OTM calls expiring tomorrow.

DualWielding40s

12/18 SPY 745c loaded at the end of the day for this very reason

DrummerCompetitive20

SPY was down 5% today...thats half a years gains wiped out in 8 hours LOL

Ok_Persimmon9849

Imagine this was the last day we'll ever see SPY above 700

Imaginary_Trader

You have to get a few things right: 1. Timing - a quick glance looks like he bought puts expiring the next day. So you'd bet this every day 2. Magnitude - if the strike was too low, and SPY fell down hard but not enough to hit the strike, he would have gained at the start and the in the middle of the day, and then saw it bleed out as the day ended. 3. Bet size. Saw on Twitter someone saying this kind of move happens 1 to 2 times a year. If it happens once a year and you time it awfully you'd need ~$20,000 to bet $100 every day 

confused_teabagger

we know! That is why SPY just got its nuts cut

IndependentUsual7444

SPY probably won't reach correction territory sorry ber

Remarkable_Cat_8696

So he bought cheap deep OTM puts, the SPY is down 4% in a day and those puts are now worth much more. Basically it was a small bet for a large gain, while most of the time you will lose that $700.

housemoneyrocketship

Ok SPY, 3.5% more to go ya dumb bitch

Pitiful_Enthusiasm_4

Can anyone ELI5 to a non-investor how in the living f*ck returns like this are possible trading SPY??

OrangeForeva

Never. Of course not. SPY 800 incoming. :ahyes:

Professor_Fed

Any particular reason you chose SPY today?

lol_trades

the daily chart on SPY was printing a head and shoulders top since late september, with today's price action expressing the full measured move down. more recently, yesterday's daily candle was an inverted hammer topping pattern closing at the 50 simple moving average where price rejected from today

WSB-mods-are-

If you cant handle SPY at her -4% you don't deserve her at her +8%

bearhunter429

#In the past we've had sell offs, pullbacks, corrections and even bear markets but this is none of those. This is TOTAL DESTRUCTION of the markets. We won't stop until SPY and QQQ both hit $0. LMAO🤌⛹🏾

Unfair-League-3204

Looks like the US is the last safe haven, hence why SPY is up 2% already in overnight trading

BEAR_STEARNS_CEO

Have some fucking conviction bears, SPY only up 0.4% after a -4% day and you're shitting yourself 12 hours before the market even opens. Fucking pussies.

Prestigious-Work-730

Even if so I would imagine it has missed on large gains had it been in even SPY/VOO/IWM etc

manwiththemach

Hey I changed from QQQ to SPY500 in May, I'm happy to ride this out.

No_Reaction5050

Is SPY climbing back?????

Medium-Place

This was easy to predict.. go to monthly time frame on SMH.. smack the Wall Street cheat sheet on there and understand SMH leads QQQ and Qs lead SPY

IndependentUsual7444

SPY puts expiring tomorrow were up 10,000% today

sinag19

MU and SPY doing good work here’s to hoping for a completely reversal of today 🤞🤞🤞

verified-trader

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $149.00 (below) | $755.72 | $733.00 | -80.3% | Sun 10:48 PM ET | | **Record** | 2W - 2L | 50% | - | - | - |

WSB-mods-are-

SPY 🎰 incoming

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $745.00 (above) | $733.00 | +1.6% | Fri 9:14 PM ET |

B-Jaxon

!banbet SPY 745 1d

less_unique_username

So for this moonshot not only he had to correctly predict SPY would go down by a lot, he also had to estimate by how much with quite a precision, because puts at 747 would have been much more expensive, and puts at 727 would have expired worthless.

-IQ200

SPY bounced off the SMA 200. Relief rally incoming, back to 770 like nothing happened.

type_your_name_here

It’s effectively that but the actual instrument are put options that expire at the end of the day. You buy them which give you the right to sell an index stock (SPY is a popular choice) at particular price. If you want the option to sell them at an easy-to-profit (e.g higher than the current) then the the option cost will be expensive. If it’s a hard-to-profit price (eg much lower than current) the option price will be cheap. The key is the option will always cost more than the profit you would earn if the stock price stays flat.  For example, SPY is currently 734. I’m too lazy to check but I could probably buy put option to sell SPY at 720 for very little (maybe $0.30-$0.50) because there is a very, very low chance that SPY goes so low that selling it at 720 would be profitable. It would have to drop over 2% in a single day!  But on a day like today where it dropped over 5%, the stock would be down to $700 and for every $0.30-$0.50 you spent you would make $20!  These are just guestimate numbers but you get that sort of leverage. The problem is if it only goes down 1%, you lose everything you paid for the options.

iSOBigD

Bro I sold cause I had to go and missed out on about 40k more profit. Also had I traded 0 day SPY or QQQ puts at the same entry and exit instead of MU 1 day puts, I'd have made closer to $400k. Trust me it sucks, especially knowing I made money but my account was still way down, but keep at it, set rules for yourself, see what works and you'll be OK.

Sir_Grindalot

I remember a few months back when we had: Kospi dump -> SPY dump -> Kospi dump , the following trading day for SPY was very much green.

Sir_Grindalot

I think the last couple of days scream of algos shenanigans. I was expecting the dems to win big and the tech sector getting hit hard, but what I was not expecting at all was having a first day of SPY going up pumping staples; to me it made no sense considering how important the tech sector is for the overall market, like what are we going to do? Take money from Nvidia/AMD and add 1 trillion market cap to McDonalds? Then we got the real dump and for many people it was ggs. Outside of that fake SPY pump that cost retail a lot of money, I think the dems W and the tech dump were both fairly easy to predict. My port is 90% biotech and has been for a while, just for disclosure.

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▼ | **Record:** 2W - 10L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $715.00 (below) | $733.00 | -2.5% | Fri 8:30 PM ET |

Specific-Chemist-353

Which 0dte SPY option should I buy at open tomorrow? It’s time to yolo.

Slazagna

Even with this explanation I'm lost lol. Can we work through an example? Someone owns SPY at 100 a share. They have a contract to sell at 80 a share. Spy drops to 70 a share. How does the contract make him more money than 80 a share? Why would someone buy the 80 a share? contract when its going lower? Are they buying shares off them at 80 each or the contract to sell them at 80? Why woukd someone spend 100x the value of the difference between selling at 80 vs 70 to have a contract to sell at 80?

Skeleton-ear-face

SPY doesn’t even budge on this news, crazy

Happy-Champion1661

no it's not a big enough dip on SPY. But I loaded up on GOOG at the start of this week and will add MU tomorrow... it's a good good dip on tech

InquisitorCOC

Not yet on semis Took some losses on $QQQ and bought a bigger amount in $SPY

falling_knives

SPY is only down 6% from ATH. Is this even a dip?

iCantDoPuns

I was using claude for trade setups and it said to get smh 475 puts before the open. the thing even it got wrong was the size of the move and my trailing stop was a little tighter than it could have been. A few large books got liquidated. By 10 am today large portfolios were dumping ai. That kicked off massive momentum across loads of holders. That pushed indices into bearish territory. SPY double topped. Thats why smart money isnt entering until we retest todays lows. If the market really turns bearish, its going to take more than a day or two for that to play out. Really good signal would be hard selling at tomorrows open past todays lows, and then see the rebound. That would be a rejection. Then we face resistance on the way up - that double top. A load of shit is oversold, but that doesnt mean it wont get more oversold before it actually starts going up. Now theyre basically saying 'lets see if this is just pricing in future earnings correctly' - will PEs increase because earnings fall? Markets arent rallying until smart money is sure they arent. Gonna need a lot of exuberant capital for markets to act like that.

Emotional-Lychee9112

No. The most he would lose is the $700. To make this simple to understand, say he paid $100 per contract for 7 contracts that give him a right to sell SPY at $1,000. Each contract is good for 100 shares of SPY. It's basically an insurance policy - if SPY is trading for more than $1k on the open market at the time the option expires, his insurance is worthless - he didn't use the insurance policy, so he paid $700 for nothing. But if suddenly SPY drops to $500, he has contracts that say he can sell 700 shares of SPY for $1,000. So he can go "buy" 700 shares of SPY off the open market for $500/ea ($350k) and immediately exercise his option to sell those 700 shares for $1k/ea ($700k), making a profit of $350k. I put "buy" in parenthesis because you don't actually go buy the shares/you don't have to have $350k in your account to do it. In this case, he bought deep out of the money contracts. So they were very cheap because nobody thought SPY would fall as far as it did. He bet that SPY would fall a lot more than the market expected it to, and he got lucky. If it didn't fall that far, his contracts would've been worthless because, for example, nobody is going to pay anything for a contract to sell SPY for $1k if it's trading on the open market for $1.7k and they can just sell it for that. The leverage comes from the fact that each contract is x100 shares, so for every $1 SPY goes down, the value of the options goes up by $100 (excluding theta/etc, just for the sake of simplicity), but visa versa is true too - every $1 SPY goes up, the value of the option decreases by $100. Long story long, as others have said, it's a lottery ticket that paid off. That's it. There's no way for you to replicate this outside of luck, unless you somehow know something the rest of the market doesn't know.

gatovision

I learned the worst habit this summer which was doubling down on QQQ/SPY calls until they turn green. I got wasted past month on these big red days trying to be a hero. lost so much shorting after getting stomped out in May and June, now losing big on calls. Gambling addiction just ruins the good things in life. Could have quit so many times and walked just sat on shares. No way i thought QQQ would go down fucking $44 today. Sucks man, this market can eat you alive.

Background_Survey646

Yes. Let's be clear, SPY barely moves any given day. We had a historic market crash today. It's no different than throwing a $700 bet on any kind of random polymarket event with low probability. A contract is not like a stock that holds value. He temporarily borrowed shares and they would be worthless if this exact even didn't happen. He also made more than one good very low probability bet in a row.

No-Assistance-5875

What if I have 1DTE SPY calls…

Fhyzikz

SPY 800 ead tomorrow