SPY
State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust
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The Warsh Effect and Wednesday's Rate Announcement
I stopped choosing SPY put spreads by delta alone
Investment thesis for week 9/14 - 9/18
SPY had $915M in options premium. UNH had $615M. Only one was unusual.
For poor man 0DTE options, is IWM my best bet? 🤔
SEPT 16TH DD: The Fed gonna mess up your calls (OR) J-Pow’s successor is bringing back the 1980s. Grab your helmets? (co-written by Gemini)
How did SPY move on 911 each year
Options buying with a $100K account ? (Intraday vs Swing)
Feedback on my strategy to hedge AI risk in 2027 (collar)
Fact Check: 0DTE Iron Condor Strategy With Zero Losses (Reposted with self-promotion removed)
PMCC is absolutely the best strat out there in risk-adjusted return
I Trade for a Living -Strong AI Flows, Heavy VIX Hedging and Why I’m Trimming
Fact Check: 0DTE Iron Condor Strategy With Zero Losses
Earnings Club: Cheap Rips, Adobe Stakes Ahead of Key Prints
SPY 0DTE after PMI: was this move mostly price, gamma or IV expansion?
Criteria for choosing underlyings for 45 DTE put credit spreads
Do you feel slightly nostalgic for the times when tweets like that moved SPY 3-5% like it was an actual news?
BEST TRADING EXECUTION I EVER MADE SPY + TSLA
Can a squirrel trade options better than me?
Looking for a meme that was posted a while ago
Bro is trading 0DTE SPY like the rest of us 😭😭
Making a living and much much more trading options on $1K a day
Tax straddle treatment for downside protection of portfolio with puts
Let AI agents deploy options bots on paper desks. Worst one: long puts on TSLA/AMD/META/NFLX, 53 tra
Sitting on cash feels safe, but my FOMO is kicking in. Am I missing the boat or saving my ass? 💸🤔
Checked whether SPY's weekend gap is actually bigger than a regular overnight gap.
A ±0.5% wide SPY range only held on 54% of the last 35 trading days. Real intraday data.
Profitable SPY ORB strategy — looking for fresh eyes before taking it further
I backtested ATM short straddles across 50 tickers over 19 years to understand VRP
Does anyone avoid diversification (like me)?
Three ways dealer gamma lies to you, from someone who uses it daily
SOXL loss, bought right before the crash
Someone said Warsh’s speech was “obvious” because he doesn’t do forward guidance. That take completely misses the point.
100% $25K 0DTE SPY Gain (but left $75K on the table)
Has anyone found a good way to get alerted when specific market conditions combine? Not just single indicators.
NVDA Confirms the Memory Bottleneck, PCE Stays Mechanically Hot & Positioning Turns Bullish Into Jackson Hole
What's with the price-dependent periods of reduced volatility?
Martingale the US 40trill government deb 🎰
Beware of smart beta ETFs. 9.75 year review. After taking into account fees and dividends, they kind of suck.
Has anyone had consistent success with the 'retirement trade' strategey of a morning reversal trade?
Behind the Treasury Intervention - The Setup That Could Force the Fed to Follow
Convince me SSO (2X SPY) is a bad idea for long term investors
Full send calls on MRNA tomorrow 160 0DTE?
Treasury Intervened As Expected - Here’s What It Means
Trump Name-Drops Hyperliquid at the White House, How Will HYPE Price React?
I built a free dealer-gamma + live options-flow terminal for SPX/SPY/QQQ. No signup. Tear it apart.
Trump pauses 50% tariffs on Canada for 3 days
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
We preregistered a bearish gamma structure and measured it running the other way. Method inside.
Please help fuel my gambling addiction
[DD] Why $RDDT goes to $1,000 the exact second their AI team figures out Post-Nut Clarity
SPX is realizing 12.4 vol and the options market is only pricing 11.3
Mentions
I just checked my trading history. My SPY is up 50% from 2 years ago. Everything else combined is up 8%. I should stop trading.
99.89% chance of SPY -20% tomorrow
Welp. "**My call: a quarter-point hike tomorrow, roughly 85–90% likely.** A hold is maybe 10%, and a half-point hike is under 5%. The more important prediction is how he'll message it: open-ended ("until we're confident"), not "one and done." First, a correction: I was wrong last time. That file is named "28_aug," so there's no mismatch. ### What the words show I pulled Warsh's own words out of all four documents (reporters' questions removed) and counted marker words per 1,000 words. | Marker | Jun 17 | Jul 14 | Jul 29 | Aug 28 | |---|---|---|---|---| | "Task force" | 4.6 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | | Tighten/act/restrictive | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | | Inflation/prices | 7.6 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 12.5 | | Hedges (unscripted Q&A) | 9.6 | — | 11.7 | — | What that means: - **The dodge disappeared.** In June, "we've got a task force for that" was his way out of hard questions. By Jackson Hole he barely mentions them and says outright they have "no bearing" on current decisions. - **Action words tripled** from June to August, and inflation talk steadily crowded out everything else. - **July was his most evasive moment.** His hedging peaked in that Q&A, and he repeatedly denied pausing ("nothing inertial," "not a pause," "not watchful waiting"). People insisting they aren't doing the thing they're visibly doing is a classic sign of discomfort. He was defending a hold he didn't fully believe in. One caveat: the counts are small (the tighten row is about 3 uses in June versus 8 in August), and scripted speeches read differently from live Q&A. Treat the table as supporting evidence. The logic below is the stronger case. ### Why the logic almost forces a hike **1. He closed every exit.** Each dovish argument for holding got shut down, one by one: - "Policy is restrictive" became "hard pressed" to call conditions restrictive. - "Inflation cooled this summer" became "better than expected" prints that don't change the trend. - "Hiring is weak" was explained away as slow labor-supply growth. - "Wages are tame" was dismissed as not a reliable predictor. - "AI productivity allows lower rates" was his own pre-Chair view, now walled off from current policy. Nobody spends a whole speech removing the reasons to do nothing unless they're about to do something. **2. The July hold was explicitly temporary.** At Jackson Hole he described July as the majority choosing to "await new information in the intermeeting period... before deciding." That's a deferral, not a verdict. Three members already dissented for tightening in July. **3. His own test is failing on his own numbers.** His standard is inflation moving to 2% "clearly and at sufficient speed." Six-month PCE (4.1%) running above twelve-month (3.7%) means inflation is going the wrong way, not just slowly. **4. A hold would undo the tightening he took credit for.** In July his defense was that the bond market had already tightened for the Fed. Skipping a hike that markets now treat as near-certain would pull yields down and ease conditions, the exact opposite of his stated goal. A hold defeats his own argument. **5. Commitment psychology and credibility incentives both point the same way.** He has said "we will deliver" publicly at every appearance. The research on public commitments (Cialdini) says people act to stay consistent with them, especially once reputation is at stake. The economics literature (Rogoff's "conservative central banker," Barro–Gordon) says new central bankers have the strongest incentive to prove toughness early. He's a Trump appointee whose independence is questioned, and he told Jackson Hole that 65 months of inflation "sits squarely with the central bank." A third hold would contradict three months of his own words. **Why not 50?** Every document rejects urgency and fine-tuning: "no magic wand," not "in days or weeks." His temperament is a steady grind, not shock and awe. ### Decoder for tomorrow's presser - **"Discipline," "work to do," "underlying trend not improved":** more hikes are coming, even without saying so. - **"Markets have done work," "observe," "watch the effects":** he's setting up a pause in October or December. - **Mentions of housing, agriculture, or recent-graduate strain:** a dovish hedge; he's building the case for stopping. - **Task-force deflections come back:** he's avoiding the question of what comes next. - **Dissents:** I'd expect 1–3, now likely from the dovish side. Hawks who wanted a hike in July got what they wanted. ### What this means for your trade The hike itself is priced in. The risk is the messaging. If he repeats his open-ended "until we're confident" standard, markets will read more hikes into it. That's less of a relief rally than a clean "one and done," which argues for patience on the SPY call re-entry. Remember that he reads rallies and low volatility as evidence policy isn't tight enough. This is a probability read from the documents, not a certainty, and not financial advice.
98.89% of SPY +3% tomorrow
Assuming you bet it all, then one wrong flip and it's back to zero. Just timing the SPY 752 puts and using whole options for tomorrow based on 5 minute averages, went from 100 to 500.
So let’s say you could predict every move on SPY and you scalped all the swings that lasted for at least 5 minutes or more. About how long to you thing it’s take to turn $100 into a million on 0DTE?
i paper handed spy calls earlier this year (early Apr) that ran from $3k to $48k within a few days… they were like 3 weeks out so I had plenty of time. That was during the SPY run to $700. Sold them for a $50 loss; made some good gainz since but that one still stings
Schizos say that Covid was population control, but the real control will be tomorrow when SPY ends flat and exterminates 0dte call and put holders
The fucking SPY 5 yr chart man. I keep mentioning every other day here but it looks so fucked.
Prediction: SPY +0.07% after rate hike tomorrow to make all calls and puts expired worthless.
I only trade SPY and I only use market orders. Was OPs order put in right after a news event, which would change my opinion ? (I don't trade around news predicting so I don't get collected in a bad spread).
Last midterm SPY was down -15% by September with a generational bull run Biden was handed
SPY is up 11% ytd on a midterm year you fucking retard lmfao
I own CATL stocks . Just buy them on the Hong Kong stock exchange (HKEX) . Outside the USA electric vehicles and hybrids are typically 50% of new vehicle sales in most Western democracies. Sales continue to expand rapidly. The USA seems to lag because despite all the complaints; gas and diesel is typically still 50-75% cheaper in the USA of what people in most countries pay. CATL dominate global battery tech and sales . I've owned a small business in China now for 26 years and have been buying goods from manufacturers in China and selling in my home country during that time. I'm a regular traveller to China to trade shows. In the past few years I've seen EV's in China move from a curiosity to absolutely dominanting the market. It's easy to see the future for the world when driving around in China where in about 10 years I've seen gas and diesel cars become dinosaurs . I noted just this week than EV's and Hybrids now outsell internal combustion engine sales in Australia. I use Interactive Brokers( IBKR) online platform to trade stocks all around the world. I've found it's better value to buy stocks direct from their main listing exchange than buy the "American" version on a North American market plus it seems only a matter of time before the Ai bubble bursts and USA stocks crash massively. Virtually all S&P ETF's ROTH's 401k's are dominated by just 7 tech stocks , so even if folks have SPY or QQQ their 401k's are seriously exposed to Ai stock Using IBKR; it's easy to buy stocks all over the world. There'd 2-3 other globally large online brokerages you can use that are reputable; I settled on IBKR because of the range of financial instruments I could purchase . About 90% of my stocks are not in my home country and buying a stock in a different country is no different than buying in my home country. I have stocks in Switzerland , Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan Korea , UK and Hong Kong exchanges . The process is identical . Set up an account on the platform, send some $ and then select the exchanges you want to buy stocks from ( takes about 8-12 hours to add a new exchange ) and then just enter the stock code and your bid price I just sold some GLD ( gold) stocks on the NYSE as rather than "paper" gold I want to buy some physical gold ; it took 4 days from the time I sold the stocks for the money to transfer through to my home country bank account . The delay was because I hadn't set up my bank account to send funds back out of my IBKR account to my personal bank account. Once my banking details were set up in IBLR's system it took about 4 hours for the money to hit my account.
That one guy who posted about his accidental YOLO on SPY puts probably made bank today
Well I’m stuck with 75 IWM Oct 300s and 100 SPY Oct 800s. What could go wrong. At least I have NOC calls to hedge…
Big day for the new CEO of SPY tomorrow
SPY is the most liquid option in the market, the bid/ask spreads often negligible. No way the bid/ask moved $10 after putting in the market sell order. There is something wrong on this fill.
the kind of fear buffett meant by be greedy when others are fearful is when SPY is down 40%. not when one AI stock is down 10%
happened last time, remember that 3% no news SPY day that kicked off the recovery after the iran mess
Let me write an article that SPY could jump 30%. Anyone who pays attention to this nonsense is a dotard.
if they raise 0.75% seeing that -3.5% SPY day will make you regret that quickly. Bonds are fake and for old people
Bols still haven’t realized the long overdue market correction has already begun. SPY 670 EOY
SPY puts for tomorrow. FED crashing the market first thing in the morning.
QQQ and SPY are both under their 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages. this is a selloff
When kevin warsh hikes rates, everyone who expects the huge market crash will get crickets instead. they will panic and cover their shorts and puts. This will cause a massive rally in SPY & QQQ until end of day. Thursday will then gap down 1-1.5%.
**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 0W - 1L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $767.50 (above) | $758.03 | +1.2% | 23h 60m |
!banbet SPY +1.25% 1d
!banbet SPY +1.25% 1d
Opening .6% up tomorrow on SPY, and ending 1.3% up. Sorry I don't make the rules.
"Rate hike is priced in. The rate cut that we are going to get will send SPY to 800." --Wayne Gretzky
imo if the vibes get sour / we get a dip on SPY or a few red days or AI panic it can easily touch < 150
IT will rip in the morning, then when the announcement happens it will "tank" back to opening prices. Everyone gambling options loses (if you're playing QQQ, SPY that is). You're better off picking a single ticker, I chose ORCL today and that worked great.
SPY 600 tomorrow by the way
Which is why I am seeing mostly straddles in the option sweeps. Huge $20+ million orders for straddles on SPY NVDA and others. Big money knows a big move is coming. They dont seem to know the direction either. If we could end this pointless war I have no doubt we would run to SPY 800 quickly. Problem is trump is an idiot and the situation seems to be deteriorating rapidly. Market seems hesitant to sell because we all expect it to just end.
SPY’s forward P/e is well below the 10 year average and well off of the current P/e. SPY has “crashed” and will continue to decline without people even knowing. SPY 800 EOY, and with an even lower P/e (crash)
It is crazy that despite everything, the market remains remarkably flat. QQQ and SPY flat since May, DOW flat since June. Just chopping along rotating sectors but going nowhere fast. Feels like a coiled spring, similar to late 2025 into early 2026. Last time it broke to the upside in late March with indices gaining 20+% in a matter of weeks. This time? Guess we'll find out sooner or later
Bears keep getting -0.3% days on SPY and can't even keep up with IV crush lmaoooo SPY hasn't had a 1% or greater drop in 34 straight trading sessions
Just get SPY down to $200 and get this over with
Crazy to think that SPY will hit 400 next year
**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 0W - 4L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $775.00 (above) | $757.86 | +2.3% | 23h 60m |
Tomorrow: 25bps raise. SPY and QQQ actually go up .35% on relief the fed is intervening to control inflation. 10 year yields go DOWN .2%. Data centers down 2% - 4%.
**BanBet Lost** — /u/mcbg47 (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▲ | $760.72 → $762.71 | +0.3% | 1d | Lost |
I'm more worried midterm, like 2-3 month range. With elections turmoil, AI bubbles, oil problems and Iranian drones, it's a perfect storm for a rug pull. Just bought some SPY puts 5 minutes before close 😂
**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $764.25 (above) | $756.69 | +1.0% | 23h 60m |
SPY goes below 750 tmrw?!
**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $749.20 (below) | $756.76 | -1.0% | 23h 60m |
SPY CALLS 770! LFGGGGGG He aint hiking!
SPY 770 tomorrow based on the pattern of stupid things happening in the world.
SPY look like a +3% day tomorrow
SPY is currently ripping right now.
If SPY hits a level 3 halt -20% and PUTs can't be sold, are you just screwed out of profits?
If SPY hits a level 3 halt -20% and PUTs can't be sold, are you just screwed out of profits?
**BanBet Lost** — /u/english_fool (0W - 3L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $757.16 → $749.59 | -1.0% | 4h 53m | Lost |
Expecting a bounce tomorrow ngl. QQQ and SPY both hitting the lower bollinger bands
SPY 33 sessions without a -1% drawdown
**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 0W - 1L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $770.00 (above) | $757.00 | +1.7% | 23h 60m |
Straddles for Fri acquired on SPY. I don't know what the fucks happening, I already have some puts for Thu, but I expect some crazy shit so straddles should work either way.
Why does it feel like SPY has gone fucking nowhere in 3 months
will SPY hit 800 EOY? 😭😭😭
I also bought 780c for Monday out lmao My reasoning is that I've seen SPY pamp $20 3 days
As soon as robinhood auto sells retails 0dtes at 3:45 volume will come into SPY and it’ll sell off into close and open down 1%+ tomorrow
SPY puts loaded, see you all tomorrow LOL
Some artificial intelligence for you: # SPY on FOMC decision days — Sept. 2022 through July 2026 |Year|FOMC decision days|Red closes|Green closes|Red %| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**2022**\*|3|3|0|**100.0%**| |**2023**|8|3|5|**37.5%**| |**2024**|8|4|4|**50.0%**| |**2025**|8|3|5|**37.5%**| |**2026 YTD**|5|4|1|**80.0%**| |**Total**|**32**|**17**|**15**|**53.1%**|
I threw $80 at SPY 770's for tomorrow
SPY, SPCX, GOOG recovery tomorrow - plz.
**BanBet Lost** — /u/eldicee (1W - 2L, 33%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▲ | $756.72 → $760.00 | +0.4% | 2h | Lost |
When should I buy SPY is this as low as it will go before a rally tomorrow?
Me thinking SPY would give a fuck
I am impressed by how the SPY can swing a grand total of 4 points every day during trading days for the last month. Calls on theta?
Year 2030, SPY still trading between 756 and 758
SPY could give up $100 and I wouldn't fucking blink.
Well then let’s see how low SPY can go since pumping is out the question
Oh, not much, just gambling away my children's inheritance on ODE SPY calls. How 'bout you?
Is SPY stuck in the washing machine what the heck is this.
McDonald’s arch pattern formed on SPY
need 10% SPY correction stocks too expensive now with global yields breaking out and oil prices this high
Put support is at 705 for QQQ and 760 for SPY. Good support levels
This inability to SPY to go down when the buying stops is all the proof I need that the market is healthy
churning SPY since 10:30 am
Well, it’s certainly not boring any more. Particularly if SPY goes into a prolonged down trend. SPY’s price history has been particularly well suited to this strat for the last 2 years, with trends being short in time in both the up and down directions. Recency bias applies. Try back testing your scheme during a prolonged up or down trend, like 2010 to 2019 for the up trend or 2007 to 2009 for the down trend.
**BanBet Created** ▲ | **Record:** 0W - 1L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $775.00 (above) | $757.46 | +2.3% | Sep 18, 6:23 PM |
**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $735.00 (below) | $757.59 | -3.0% | Sep 18, 6:21 PM |
SPY uno reverse let's go
It depends on what you are trading. Individual stocks. You can get screwed with them if you do not manage them properly. I only place credit spreads on the index’s, XSP, SPX,NDX. They are cash settled. Meaning the most you can lose is the collateral paid. Unlike SPY or QQQ where there is pin risk. You can lose more than the collateral plus any premium you received. If wanting to place credit spreads on single stocks the longer the better till expiration