SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
While some believe the markets will rally tomorrow due to the averted gov shutdown, what they don’t realize is that the markets don’t like uncertainty. Yet another ‘last minute’ bandaid fix to kick the can down the road is just asking for another downgrade, likely sparking more bond sell offs. SPY will gap down tomorrow premarket & close at 420 or lower. This of course is the logical thing that will happen, so just inverse this, buy calls and be a happy regard when SPY jumps up to 435🤪
I torched my account 30 times in the last 90 days. Options play, 90% of the time was making money at some point, sometimes big money sometimes small, and in the end all options ended worthless. I thought about posting every play as I entered it to help some of you who have more control and will probably benefit from my stupidity. Let me know what you think. For the record I bought 107 SPY calls of 432 expiring Monday
Congrats on starting your journey investing! The most important thing you can do starting out is buy what are called index funds. Here are the three most popular and largest funds in the world by assets under management: 1. SPY - $402B 2. IVV - $339B 3. VOO - $323B Not surprisingly, all top 3 funds track the most popular market index in the world, the S&P 500. It comprises the 500 largest companies in the US. You can read about it here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp500.asp When you buy any of these funds, you essentially buy diversified small pieces of the largest, most profitable and often thought to be most stable companies in the US. As you learn more about the stock market, you can gradually begin buying stocks of individual companies but it is almost universally recommended that you start with index funds as they are generally far safer and offer the best returns for new investors. Best of luck!
Congrats on starting your journey investing! The most important thing you can do starting out is buy what are called index funds. Here are the three most popular and largest funds by assets under management: 1. SPY - $402B 2. IVV - $339B 3. VOO - $323B Not surprisingly, all top 3 funds track the most popular market index in the world, the S&P 500. It comprises the 500 largest companies in the US. You can read about it here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp500.asp When you buy any of these funds, you essentially buy diversified small pieces of largest, most profitable and often thought to be most stable companies in the US.
He doesn’t know what he’s doing. I was part of his action alerts and paid 599 a year and he made 14 percent return but if I just had a SPY fund I would of made 20 percent thst year. I traded 20 times and just having a SPY fund I’d of beat him. He doesn’t know how to trade. I know he supposed to have been a hedge fund manager but I’m not sure how he did it. He is entertaining but if you buy what he says you’ll lose all your money.
lol, 2nd top is in February '24 on the chart above mate as the above guy narrated: [SpicyEscovitchFish](https://www.reddit.com/user/SpicyEscovitchFish/) · [13 hr. ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/16w0fni/comment/k2vk098/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) EOY rally 2023 followed by confirmation of a hard landing and a commercial real estate scare in the first half of 2024. SPY breaks 350 by September 2024.
Guesstimating net MM inventory using skew is gonna be noisy enough that it's gonna be useless. Guesstimating from printed trades is not expensive and is more or less how the pros do it exactly. I can almost guarantee you trying to generically forecast SPY spot using OMM inventories is gonna be wasted effort though I guess it'll be a good exercise for you to build something.
Thanks for your submission! r/WallStreetBets is ultimately a community about making money through trading, and our conversations should shift around that. Politics are fundamentally intertwined with making money, and political actions almost always have an impact on financial markets. Still, we need to make sure that when we have these discussions, we're explicitly calling out the financial impacts of the politics we're discussing. Otherwise, the conversation can very easily veer off into flamewars and boring, unproductive, discussion. Here's an example of a political comment that doesn't offer any value: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. What a fucking idiot" Now compare it to this: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. It threatens the profit margins of oil companies because they will need to expand their OpEx. I have calls on Shell that are going to get decimated at open." The latter is significantly more interesting and offers a great jumping point into market related discussion. Put succinctly: If you choose to start or engage in arguments about libtards or Nazis instead of making fun of their bad SPY long then you're in the wrong place and we'll show you the door. If you're not sure if your content is political, it probably is, and there's probably a better way to post it without making things weird. --- All that being said, we are here to help. We want to make it as easy as possible for you to post to our community. We have to balance this with making the subreddit interesting for our readers. If you need some guidance, don't hesitate to [reach out to modmail](https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) and we'll give you some pointers!
>What you can do is subscribe to OPRA feed as a non-professional and use trade logs to guesstimate whether MMs are long/short on each trade and aggregate that to get what you're looking for. Whether you use market mid or a micropriced mid for the trade logs is gonna make your aggregation a little less noisy but in either case market mid will still be good enough if there's enough volume. No matter what you do the net measure will still be somewhat noisy. The reason I'm specifically interested in skew-adjusted GEX is to be able to get point in time estimates of GEX rather than having to evaluate every transaction. I know that I can get EOD options chains, but trying to get every transaction on a historical basis I'm sure is extremely costly, both in terms of paying for the data and trying to process the transactions for the purpose of determining GEX. >That said personally I've never seen successful systematic strats taking advantage of net MM gamma exposure that weren't incredibly reliant on events / regimes. I would probably start with GEX for the SPX/SPY to see if it at least has any predictive power in terms of avoiding drops, but spending a bunch of time to not add any value is definitely a concern.
Going all in in crypto might bring you most cash - or might kill your port. Options is the second "best" choice. Than stocks. Than bonds. However, if you add all 3 of them, depending on balancing, you might achieve the exact same expected returns as with stocks only, but lower the downside substantially. As well, SPY YTD is really not a good measurement when we talk about 20y investing perspective. Look how nikkei did for the past 30 years. They had really amazing 2023, but before that 30 years of stagnation. Is there any guarantee SPY wont experience the same? In 1990 no one (so to say) could forse nikkei stagnating, it was "stocks only go up" approach.
Work your way to being an unloader at Costco and make $35-40 an hour. You’ll beat your day trading daily average quickly. Keep renting the room you live in and keep expenses down. Forget about day trading and just put any savings into a Roth IRA and place some simple long term bets in boring ETF’s or whatever. Even if the market keeps trading sideways forever, by the time you’re 25 you’ll have more money than most of the people your age. Buy a Toyota Corolla hybrid or Prius once they release solid state battery models and use this car for the rest of your life. Never buy a house. Only rent and just save a bunch of money and put it into your retirement in a steady stream. Make a game out of your life being boring and ignore any feeling that you need to be on a grindset or that you need to become rich. Let everyone else around you play the game while you sit back and watch and enjoy the simpler things. Buy a king size bed. Eat moderately healthy foods. Work out once or twice a week. Drink water. Save up for vacations but never overspend when you’re on them. Sit outside at a park and enjoy how beautiful the world is before it’s crushed by the large incoming stream of cataclysmic environmental events. And then, at the age of 40, take half of your savings from all of your life and bet on a few 0dte SPY plays. If you lose just laugh and keep living, you’ll still be in a better place than most everyone else financially. But if you win, you’ll have some extra fun money to take you to the off world colonies or permanent VR end of life experience.
Made a killing playing around SPY $430 resistance. Weeklies and 0 DTES depending on the price action, some times both. My Roth IRA which is mainly SPY got skull fucked but if it goes to $420 which I believe signals a bearish trend then I’ll be looking to do some cash secured puts.
No one can ever be 100% sure of anything. I was watching the chart and the entire market all day long nonstop and I knew that it could potentially bounce as QQQ SPY and TSLA were at support levels around 2pm. Saw the dxy starting to pull back at the same time and took my chances at a bounce. I was down about 8k on the trade at one point as I was DCAing but had a pretty solid hunch
<rant>As if it's not bad enough with corporate residential ownership. Geez. Own nothing, and not living in US, and still can't help but want to leech off the poors renters. I really wish the market corrects in a big way with interest so high and a recession potential high plus gov shutdown ... </rant> Initial investment: Purchase price + closing (2k) Annual spend: insurance 1%, tax 1%, maintenance 3k over the ownership time horizon deducted from the rent you think you will fetch. If you value your time and headache, you should also dollarize that as well Closing: after however many years you decide , how much do you think the property will appreciate (above the current inflated prices) - agent fee (5%). - capital gains. Will give you an IRR. Compared that to SPY average return. It is not a given that property is always a superior choice
Pls explain to me like I’m 5 lol. Didn’t SPY only gain a small amount last weekend? And then didn’t it gain a little again in the mid week? How come it had such a drastic impact on your investment and why was it only one sharp dip rather than two for you?
TA doesn't tell you what's going to happen it tells you what is happening and has happened and doesn't care why. If people want to completely ignore it and catch falling knives cool. If people want to ignore the levels most people have historically bought and sold at cool. Even if you don't use any indicators and look at a stock and think "I'm not buying that because it's dropped 20% over the last week" guess what.. you just did basic TA. But using it in a vacuum is weird. If you make a decision to buy 0 DTE calls on SPY then the same day Powell puts the rates up and you lose all your money.. well then you probably belong here to be honest.
S&P 500 is the top 500 public companies in the US, so it is the most representative index for betting on the US. Things like what JPow does is going to directly affect the overall US economy, so it makes SPY a popular trade for situations like that. Other indices are slanted toward a particular sector of the economy, so they can be subject to forces outside of an overall US economy bet.
Lots of discussion yesterday on value vs. growth, large vs. small cap. It made me think of something I've been meaning to post for a while. Some investors may want a diversified middle ground between what they feel is "pricey" big tech and riskier, volatile small caps. But they like the value tilt. One option is the **Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF or $RPZ**. * Provides the strength, stability, consistent profitability required of inclusion in the S&P 500. * Provides a value tilt towards historically important factor themes such as low PE, high PEG. * Outperformed small cap value funds since pre-covid and over the last ten years. Although it has underperformed SPY, it has provided decent drawdown protection. Unlike many indices that dropped dramatically in 2022, it has retained much of its value. All in all, low volatility and protection from downside and value tilt but the upside and moaty power of large companies which may be favored in this environment.
Since this post 8d ago, up maybe another 4000$. Which is a blessing really because I had $SPY puts that expired Tuesday & Monday that got torched and I lost about 9k. Luckily Tuesday was another decimation show for $SPY and I made back that 9k + 7k more. Then I moved into calls for Wed/Thurs and they weren’t doing to well. Lost some $ there. I’ll just post a picture of the stupidest shit I did. I had 19 call option contracts expiring 9/27. At 210pm they were basically worthless and I sold them for 4$ a piece (76$) well of course, immediately after I sell, SPY goes on a rampage upward and they go from .04 to 1.60 in an hour. I just made 30k and I sold 19 contracts for 76$… as if that 76$ was so important I couldn’t just let it ride….. I NEVER do shit like that.. Only reason I didn’t sell 26 was cuz I was too lazy to cancel my limits. So luckily I held onto 7 and sold them around 1.50. And I had bought more calls right at the bottom. So I should be up another 10k or so from this post..but only 4K https://preview.redd.it/vd3f0hpjaerb1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=093164ed78b0f203d5ddd58d517d6ed33471560f
Lots of discussion yesterday on value vs. growth, large vs. small cap. It made me think of something I've been meaning to post for a while. Some investors may want a diversified middle ground between what they feel is "pricey" big tech and risky / volatile small caps. But they like the value tilt. One option is the Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF or $RPZ. * Provides the strength, stability, consistent profitability required of inclusion in the S&P 500. * Provides a value tilt towards historically important factor themes such as low PE, high PEG. * Outperformed small cap value funds since pre-covid and over the last ten years. Although it has underperformed SPY, it has provided high drawdown protection. Unlike other indices that dropped dramatically in 2022, it has retained its value. All in all, low volatility and protection from downside and value tilt but the upside and moaty power of large companies which may be favored in this environment.
If I understand the rationale it goes like this: if SPY is moving with momentum in either direction, the call or put will have increased in value rather than decreased due to theta decay. Therefore, this strategy rides momentum. I imagine there's a little more to it that what has been stated: time of day, distance SPY has already moved, proximity to strong support/resistance. So it isn't significantly different than riding momentum by looking at moving averages and price action. It's using the price of options as an indicator of momentum. Not an unreasonable additional data point to consider.
>Both accounts show rates of returns, but I'm not really sure what timeframes these are for so I'm not sure if I'm comparing like numbers. it's best to look at 10-year returns for the same period of time, e.g. Fund A and Fund B for 2010-2020. even then, you need to adjust for other variables such as 'beta'. 'beta' is a measure of volatility; the overall US market has a beta of 1 ... so a low-volatility fund with a beta of .7 is not the same as a highly volatile fund with a beta of 2.2. also need to consider valuation: a fund with a higher 'price to earnings ratio' might have a better short-term performance over the last 5 years, but over the long-term (such as the next 10-15 years) a fund with lower price to earnings is probably likely to perform better than a fund with higher p/e ratio. VOO is dominated by a handful of mega-large US companies. so it's also not a direct comparison for things such as a fund with smaller US stocks, or international stocks. the last 10 years have been foolproof for the S&P 500 but there are periods VOO is disappointing relative to other options. so it can be good to have at least a bit in other funds. an international developed markets index beat the S&P 500 about 45% of the time from 1969-2022. https://tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/Dichotomy%20Btwn%20US%20and%20Non-US%20Mar2023%20Fund.pdf the S&P 600 (small companies) and S&P 400 (mid size companies) have beaten the S&P 500 over some long periods of time. https://contrarianoutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/SPY-Midcap-Smallcap-20yr-Chart.png