SPY

randomnameforwe

SPY is up 18% in a month and a half of war/fake peace deals since march 30th. Does anyone really think this is sustainable and not leading to either a crash or massive devaluation of the dollar? I'm genuinely curious? I plan to keep making money on weekly calls until it fails but really can't see this ending well...

Rearender29

I dont think my strategy is well thought out. I trade using VWAP and 200 SMA. I’m usually looking at charts on Thinkorswim off my mobile device and place trades on Robinhood. I have other indicators such as RSI and TTM squeeze but some don’t work on SPX as there is no volume. While I’m at work I’ll just watch SPY on yahoo finance with VWAP and SMA. With lower equity between 1-5k I’d have to buy 20-30 points on the money. I think this is psychologically where I struggled as I would frequently get up to a decent account value 2-6/7 k and then I would blow my account trying to get my option to increase 50 to 100%. Most of the time I would be up during the morning catching the momentum and jumping out by 9-10 central and would feel bad about missing out on larger moves. I scaled to two contracts once I was past 5k. Still at the same types of strikes but generally 10 points away if it was later in the day. But after 5k I had enough to enter a position close it and open another to try to make back any losses. Psychologically, the hardest part was of course selling for a loss knowing that I couldn’t trade anymore and was at a loss. I think I kept the same strategy in scaling once I got past 12k and got up to 16/17 bit I was buying 5 points on the money and jumping out of positions way quicker. At this point my goal was to make margin maintenance requirements to be able to consistently jump in and out of positions. Once I got 25 I scaled to about 5-10 contracts 5 points in the money and would close out my position once they were 5 points or more on the money, holding of the momentum was there but also cutting all but one contract for fun. I got pretty reckless at the end immediately scaling between 10->20->30->40 contracts just scalping. Usually I’ll watch futures and read headlines and what not. But my final trade looked like consolidation and figured we were due for a breakout. I bought in at 40 contracts and price action moved against me by 10 points. I was down roughly 10k but at this point I no longer feared losing money like that as I didn’t have anything else left to pay off besides student debt. I noticed how quickly buyers stepped in after hitting VWAP and bought in for another 15 contracts. Sure enough price broke out and I immediately exited all my positions. Content with paying off my students loans after a 26k plus gain. Throughout the week I kept moving money out but keep my maintenance margin requirement but I was overall less worried about the losses and focused on maintaining margin

musicandarts

I do 3x leveraged S&P ETF and puts on SPY. I am retired, so it is just cash flow (sale & withdrawal) management for me.

CelebrationNo1242

Yea you could tax loss harvest but that also messes up whatever exit strategy you had for 30 days. You could hedge with a similar stock/option but it's not quite the same. But also the benchmark is SPY, taxes just makes it that much harder to beat literally just doing nothing

Ahamadrayasbaboon

Based on my current tax burden and TTM SPY yield, my trades have to average >35% annualized to beat holding SPY for a year. That’s not even considering the compounding effects of tax deferment that come with holding SPY for a longer period. 

circadiggmigration

POTUS sure is a crafty squirrel. No matter what happens he just calls it a win and SPY pumps on the great news of America's continued success.

bearhunter429

#SPY could realistically open at $800 on Tuesday LMAO🤌

Own-Cauliflower-6992

!Banbet SPY 9999 4D

ShrimpieAC

!banbet SPY +1% 10000d

bearhunter429

#As part of the peace deal, Iran agreed to buy $300 billion of SPY LMAO🤌

taffy_laffy

If we all went to the bank to take out loans on our shares instead of selling, SPY would be looking at 1100 by now, easily 3000 by end of 2028.

abused-throwawayy

Bulls gonna be shocked when the market crashes from the strait reopening, SPY LOVED that shit being shut

Flat-Focus7966

SPY 1000 is not a meme.....

nyse25

SPY 900

Extension-Change-441

SPY going to open blood red Tuesday probably like +0.30%

MusingsAndMind

SPY is going to zero.

pineapplekiwipen

SPY pumping to 800 then a decent pullback to 720 seems reasonable

bearhunter429

#SPY is already well above where it was before the war started but a peace deal is still not priced in LMAO🤌

Demonic_Maidens

My YTD (10.9%) is beating SPY (8.5%). I am happy with how I am doing so far. If I keep grinding it I'll hopefully end the year up another 5%.

Shoganai_Hito

SPY $750 at Tuesday market open as fast as you can for generational wealth 🫶🏽

EnginrA

SPY 800 this week

WarmCan3034

cuz I too scared to buy SPY at 750 LOL

Jazzlike_Praline_385

Markets closed Monday so I’m gonna it’s still gonna be SPY 743.74 NVDA 214.28

animebeer

Pretty sure SPY will be 745 on Monday

Memeseek69

Oh shit. Activate the SPY pumping. Barron must have loaded up on Friday EOD.

moosewithamuffin

🫲🫱 We've got peace like nobody has ever seen before, some say maybe even the greatest peace deal in the history of peace deals. All tolls on the Strait of Hormuz will be paid for in SPY calls. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER 🫲🫱

LadderAdmirable

As usual counting my chickens before they hatch - i am thinking 770 SPY by open is totally reasonable. Right?

they_call_me_him

Sorry kid, bull run continues. There’s still 2.25 more put option interest than calls on SPY. Heavily imbalanced. There’s still much more squeezing to do. Market makers and option writers control the market. There’s too much money to lose if it drops. The low volume upward rally continues noob

Fun_Training6342

It's another user. Someone put 163K in SPY puts expiring next week

callsonreddit

Last time it dropped 7% how much SPY up?

Guest_0_

This guy is. Like I think he's actually fucking retarded. And he spends his entire life on this sub posting the EXACT same shit. He worships the market like a god and never stops talking about how it can predict absolutely everything. Reality itself is priced into the SPY.

diefy7321

So it was just the local crazy ber who decided to fire some shots. Nothing to see here. SPY 800 eom.

downvotescatpictures

This degenerate needed SPY to open -0.5% just to break even. If we open where the weekend markets are showing, this position is going to open -99%. Your only hope is for Bibi to get spicy and stir something up.

grimandnordic1

I'm holding so many SPY monthlies I really hope this pulls through for me

arbitraryBlue

Calls on SPY, DRAM, GOOGL. any memory stock (but idk tho cuz i'm just a dude with an erection)

VivaLaBiome

I don't think you can trial, I'd just do the monthly and see how it correlates. When you say dealer positioning, could you explain how you used it in an example... helios I'd see how it provides different information to normal options flow when it comes to intraday flow. Because flowalgo/cheddar will give you a sense of urgency when the SPY calls/PUTS come in fast and furious. Trying to narrow down which one as time isn't infinite.

WhatEvil

Average SPY return is 10%/year. 1.1\^10 is 2.59. $1.5m x 2.59 is $3.89m. You don't need "multibaggers" to make another $3m in 10 years, you just need \*very slightly\* better than average returns. 12% compounding gets you there in 10 years.

No-Improvement3164

!banbet SPY 776 7w

Feisty-Basis7903

SPY 800 when? Realistically lol.

No-Improvement3164

!banbet SPY 776 45d

No-Improvement3164

!banbet SPY 776 7-4-26

Sick0h

Can’t believe you guys keep falling for this fake pump. SPY at 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, and 800 within the next few months is all fake. You’ll see, I’ll wait until SPY is back at 150 with an PE like Benjamin Graham would look for and then I’ll go all in on the dip. Right fellow bers?

_WhatchaDoin_

I don’t know, this post seems a lot of recency bias to me. And clearly, the data shows (1) it is not a lie, and (2) it has not been decades. But heh, you do you, and can use confirmation bias to prove your points. You can compare BRK, SPY, and QQQ since 1999. BRK did overall better than SPY for pretty much all the time (except in 2000 when it dipped more, but caught up, then did better). BRK did better, by far, than QQQ until 2019. And yeah, in 2006, perf of QQQ for the past 7 years was god awful. QQQ then increased a lot, and dropped a lot in 2022, matching the overall perf of BRK. Then after it bounced back. So here, we are just saying that tech had a crazy growth in the past 3-4 years. I know that people on reddit are saying that investors who did not invest in DRAM stocks are idiot (because it did +100% in a month). Well, we’ll see how it will do in the next 5-10 years. [https://totalrealreturns.com/s/SPY,BRK-B,QQQ](https://totalrealreturns.com/s/SPY,BRK-B,QQQ)

financiallythriving

Bears, What’s your target drawdown % on SPY for you to buy in

ikasey24

I literally came here to say the SPY will hit $760 Tuesday but NVDIA will dip to $205 haha

Bagholder147

Check the Volume on the 680 SPY and QQQ options. 6/18 It's weird as hell. But who knows. I'm sure it will run at first. But these changes scream dump.

Icommandyou

🚨details of the deals emerge per Axios: * Iran to buy MU 0dte calls $1000 * Iran US agree to invest $700bn in SPY * Iran will purchase $400bn worth of MSFT PowerPoint slides * NATO Iran China will jointly launch attacks on anyone trying to short this market

vermilli21

That will make SPY hit 1000 on Tuesday

abused-throwawayy

I still cant believe SPY went up during the Strait of Hormuz being closed, just so it can shoot up when it reopens; people acted like the Strait closing would cause a Great Depression my whole fucking life lmao

Alexzaaander

SPY is 15,000

music_is_gud

With the deal signed, r/valueinvesting dudes can finally break even with SPY coz rising waves lift all tards

Exciting-Layer1963

Glad that my SPY sell order didn't get filled yesterday

HowDoesIAdult

Believe in 0 DTE calls on SPY.

Painkiller8900

Yeah fair call on SPY-king moved from $735 to $745 during the day, close was $746. Levels shift intraday as positioning changes.

callsonreddit

I kinda don’t want deal finalized Because some new shit gonna happen that tanks SPY 10%

pineapplekiwipen

so movement of scam shitcoin is your entire thesis for shorting SPY lmao

VolcanicCupid69

My $4k in 30 DTE SPY put hedge is toast on Tuesday and I love it! Let go…..

Specialist_Exam_8433

The fact that the all knowing corn has not been mooning recently tells you this rally is fake and once we hit SPY 750 we elevator down to SPY 600

FatFluffyFish

Who cares if Iran controls the straits. The whole point is strait open. If it’s open, SPY moons.

pineapplekiwipen

good to see so many delusional bears still out and about, SPY has so much higher left to go

alex02a

!banbet SPY 760 5d

ballzstreetwets

This pump will be an epic opportunity for yolo ing on SPY puts Tuesday open

Micahftww

SPY 760 Tuesday

qbantek

Oil to $70 and SPY to 800?

Put_Er_There_Sport

Damn... SPY +3% Please and thank you

Onnimation

!banbet SPY 710 5d

Many_Perspective2594

Is SPY ever gonna sell the news again? There is no more recovery to be made. It’s at ATHs at an unsettling rate.

Onnimation

!banbet SPY 730 4d

Accurate-Letter-546

I see a SPY 0dte in there. regard. Nice try

RIVNMoonMe

Buy low-fee actively managed funds that have a profitability factor. Avantis (AVUS, AVEG, AVTM, ...) and Dimensional (DFUS, ...) are good. Avoid passively managed funds weighed on market cap like VOO, SPY, QQQ, etc.

Sick0h

SPY opens at 800?

vermilli21

This is just going to make 🥭 look more like an idiot if the terms are just worst. SPY 800 I guess

dublin87

Are my Tuesday $751 SPY calls gonna print?

lionkevin713

If the fake deal pumps are enough to get SPY close to 750, the actual deal will surely make it blow past

PlayerPlayer69

Now try to breakeven with what your port would’ve been had you just parked your cash in SPY for the last 6 years. That’s the true breakeven point.

bruh67letsgo

All I know is I ain't touching QQQ for a hot minute. I am a SPY/VOO goblin until the Space X fast track into the NASDAQ shakes out.

happyegg1000

2 weeks. I honestly think I just got lucky with what advice I followed in this sub. Combination of 🎮🛑 puts, SPY 0dte calls, made a lot of it on CSCO calls for earnings. Made a chunk on WYFI calls.

dj_scripts

!banbet SPY -12% 4d

music_is_gud

Oh by far lol but I'm outperforming SPY by like 150% YTD too coz it's a fuggin bull market

Bluesquare9

Hey curious if anyone has thoughts on how my 1DTE SPY puts will perform on Tuesday?

Suavecore_

You ever click on the News section on this app? It's like reading the news headlines on Plague Inc. You'd think the entire world was going downhill and everything was collapsing. It's like no one realizes SPY is at 745

Last_Activity9855

SPY 800. The prophecy was foretold.

Plastic_Ostrich897

It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a -2% day for SPY. Just saying……

cbusoh66

SPY up 2% Tuesday on reports there's progress on a peace deal despite no agreement on any sticking issue.

mongopark98

Not even SPY, just any Mag 7 and he would have at least 300-1000% .

circadiggmigration

What were we trying to get again? I mean aside from a huge SPY rally...

Micahftww

What're we thinking SPY will do this week with the ceasefire?

BangBangOw

Problem is capital you make very little so a guy with 5000$ can do like some high beta CSPs and CCs But to have 100 shares of SPY someone needs 70k now or whatever… easier once you’re a bigger fish. I do the wheel some and it’s hard without 100k plus without dabbling in shitcos

Superente_

There won´t be a deal. SPY 700p

Guerrilla_Jackk10

So, since we are so close to a deal, you're saying SPY 760c 5/29 is guaranteed? Got it. All in

003E003

You are giving yourself some pretty wide ranges when you say "held AT king". 746 on SPY is definitely not AT 735. It might be considered in the ballpark but not AT

sirzoop

So then sell your index funds. It will be funny 5 years from now when it’s at a $10 trillion valuation and SPY is up massively and you end up rage posting about how you sold your index funds.

Scalpaholic

Bols: There's going to be a deal World Peace SPY 1000000 oil 0.00 fuk bers r fuk shrek poor stupid bers lambo order ahhhhhhh.😜🤪😝 Bers: *puts on glasses to see better* Ah. Nice Double-top forming across all Indexes. Puts and namaste. 🙏🙂‍↕️

FatFluffyFish

Tomorrow: Deal accepted Monday: IRAN: What deal? Tuesday: SPY: +5%

Plastic_Ostrich897

Who else picked up $740 SPY puts 30 minutes before close Friday?

Ok-Yam-6616

He showed live balance (the numbers were changing) in one of the videos. So that part was true. However, and I only realized this by reading these comments, his true risk/reward was not showing at all. He demonstrated a "challenge" account that he ran from $100K to $190K in several months. 70%+ of that $190K was in options - I presume in a combination of diagonals, condors,  and the like. The rest was in cash. With that setup $50K/mo was quite possible but to achieve that he had to have $120-130K at risk constantly. And that is not the same risk as holding $120K of SPY. One outsized move and half or more of his account would be gone. But none of that risk assessment matters if he has 1000 subscribers bring $200K/mo. He can open a new "challenge" account every time something happens with the previous one and still be way ahead of the game. What is missing from his videos is his entire liquidity. If it's in a few millions, running a high risk strategy on $100K is not a big deal.  His typical subscriber has a lot less and may subject themselves to a catastrophic loss simply try to copy his trades.

fools_eye

The point is **DEAL SIGNED** **SPY : +5%** **CRUDE: -40%**

Garbage-Disposal-938

consumer confidence just sank to a new low while inflation got worse SPY 800 C

Ok-Yam-6616

It only shows the last trade but it's enough to draw a few conclusions.  You shorted several naked OTM calls on SPY and closed them for pennies.  That's a high probability trade and doing it on 500K account is not terribly risky.  Thank you for sharing 

Original_Training786

During market correction, SPY is the king.