SPY

Technical_Scallion_2

Yeah I did this in April 2025 and bought $300k of SPY puts to hedge. Then the market roared all the way back and they went to $0. Don't expect the market to listen to reality

Technicaltrades404

“Death and destruction confirmed.” SPY Monday- flat or slightly green.

StraitOfHummus

SPY 250 by end of year, just you watch, bull.

Flat-Focus7966

SPY can absolutely do that in the next hour!! See ya folks ..

Specialist_Exam_8433

How can I buy SPY without TSLA CVNA or SpaceX? Want the 497 out of the 500 other companies but not those steaming piles of dogshit.

Poor_Life-choices

Believe it or not SPY 700

IlinistRainbow6

i feel this too, but the smartest play would be to invert me. SPY -25% EOY

SeaweedLeft9746

banbet! SPY 0 1d

SeaweedLeft9746

banbet! SPY 640 7d

madhewprague

War in Iran will cause such a economic colapse that not a single company will be making any profit. Dozens milions lay offs. If strait is not opened and invasion happens within this month i fully expect SPY to crash bellow 300$. Spy can fall 90% by the end of this year. Imagine spy bellow 100, that would be very much likely if fullscale war in Iran were to happen.

DiamondG331

Out of all the major indexes sure but also SPY definitely has the most volume and open interest when it comes to options. Either way, I trade that not the index is.

Gom_KBull

Even planes are crashing, but not fucking SPY. its whatever, ig 😒

callsonreddit

I think we open SPY -1% with current news. Let’s see if any news pops up

deanobrews

Exactly this. Thought SPY was going to tank $10 more, not rocket $10 higher....

Funny-Conclusion-678

The SPY run up heading incredibly low volume as well. Almost half the daily average.

Saltlife_Junkie

Not this time. Oil will go fucking crazy Sunday night. May see attacks all weekend. It’s going to open red. I bought puts Friday against INTC. I want SPY and QQQ as well. I should have bought them Friday but that BS pump scared me. 0DTE is the answer.

StraitOfHummus

I've got the largest position I've ever held of SPY puts ever and I'm ready to rock on Monday as the modern economy speed runs the end of the roaring 20s by end of next month. The dream is to retire and volunteer at food banks during the depression that we are surely moving into, because this government sure as heck ain't gonna help the underprivileged.

Get_dat_money

Month two of weekend bears saying " War in Iran will cause complete collapse of markets sell now!" (SPY down 4.6%ytd)

HuckleberryFit4084

Liquidate and YOLO SPY PUTS Monday ?

GammaReaper_

Huh? SPX is generally considered to be the most liquid exchange-traded options market in the world. Highly superior to SPY for several reasons including Sec 1256 tax treatment, no risk of exercise, no dividends, higher notional so fewer contracts/commissions. $0.01-$0.02 in SPY is $0.10-$0.20 in SPX. I usually get filled at mid, or worst case $.05 from mid, or $0.005 in SPY. You're getting r@ped if you are paying $0.02.

StraitOfHummus

Please, we all know in the event of a nuclear exchange SPY will end green.

Alib668

Ooooooooohhhhh so bye SPY?

AphexPin

War in Iran will cause such a economic colapse that not a single company will be making any profit. Dozens milions lay offs. If strait is not opened and invasion happens within this month i fully expect SPY to crash bellow 300$. Spy can fall 90% by the end of this year. Imagine spy bellow 100, that would be very much likely if fullscale war in Iran were to happen.

zxc123zxc123

So many ~~retards~~ "traders" go broke on WSB due to fallacies. Just cause you're buying SPY 0DTE puts doesn't mean it's a 50/50 coin flip. It's more like rolling a 20-sided die or buying a lotto. You can YOLO into 100,000 lottos, get only like 15K back, and YOLO those into lottos before going broke.

DJ_Mimosa

I think your comparison to the 2022 correction is valid, but not in the way you think. That 20% correction was mostly related to every central bank around the globe increasing their rates by 4%+ inside a single year, due to inflation caused by too much QE during covid. The Russia/Ukraine only led to a 5% drawdown that quickly recovered, before QT cooked the market the rest of the year as massive liquidity was pulled from the system. That's telling because it sort of gives you a 'max market pain' analogy. The market's primary concern with the Iran war is inflation. But will it be enough inflation to come even remotely close to requiring a 4% hike? No, most definitely not. Because oil-induced inflation can actually be recessionary and self-correcting. You can actually see this in the 10 year yield, which spiked at the start of the Iran war, but has been consistently cooling every since. Even yesterday when oil punched 13%, the 10 year fell, and the market recovered almost immediately in the morning. Everyone thinks WTI and SPY will have an inverse correlation. In reality it's the 10yr and SPY to watch.

StraitOfHummus

!banbet SPY 555 30d

StraitOfHummus

Gentlemen, I am pleased to announce I am holding a short position worth 2.5x more than my house over a 3 day weekend, but I'm confident if there's one administration that can start a third world war on Easter, it's Mango's. Also, it's on margin. I did this exact same thing during covid and it paid for the house in the first place, so I'm batting 1 for 1. Cannot go tits up. !banbet SPY 555 30d

JackyReacher

COVID crash in March 2020 was about bank liquidity problems. Supply chain was priced in from January 2022 - January 2024 when SPY was in the red for two whole years with a 25% drawdown. Not sure why nobody remembers those two years.

StraitOfHummus

If this hits why not SPY 600 in 9d?

wam1983

The pricing and risk has to be the same due to arb opportunity. Also, $.01 slippage on SPY = $0.10 slippage on SPX. Getting $0.05 is easy. $5.00 spread in SPY = 50 WIDE in the SPX.

DiamondG331

You should definitely pay attention. Also I guess I missed this the first time around but you will be better off trading SPY. You get more of a credit for the same $5 wide spreads, I generally go $2 and average in during the day. SPX is less liquid, you will lose money selling and buying more in SPX. In SPY it’s $.01-$.02 max. It makes a difference, even with the tax benefits of SPX. Again, something I’ve tested many times..SPY > SPX/XSP

helloWorldcamelCase

The "recovery" was purely due to MMs refusing to pay the bears amidst extremely low volume day. SPY burned theta all day and conveniently finished the day couple points away from max pain. Coming next week - probably headline driven still, but stocks have no business pumping when WTI stays above 100

PremiumProprietor

I don't do single stocks anymore. I swing SPY and day trade SPX spreads. Occasionally I will hedge with ES. But yes, iron condors basically. I actively manage all day long and flat by end of day.

hiphopanonomos

SPY prob 700 next week. It's clear they won't let it correct. Nothing ever happens

No-Improvement3164

Was that Bull Flag looking one day chart on SPY and QQQ just a fake out and opportunity to load puts? This market has me confused. 😵‍💫

SonofAngus

The Friday climb to positive by SPY feels insane to me. I also have June and Jan exp calls for $XLE and leaps for Canadian producers.

Unlikely_Proof_7772

All time highs SPY 800 once WW3 invasions occur

StraitOfHummus

Nobody can predict the tweet that will swing oil to $200, or the SPY to 700. Nobody.

2020isgreat

oil probably will who tf knows about SPY

DiamondG331

I mostly only trade credit spreads and ICs. Right now with IV being so high, you can get some serious premium so I’ve been doing well..up until Tuesday. Everything blew through my NDX short call. Oh well.. Here’s a suggestion, that has really worked well for me 9/10. Your risk reward at .02 delta is not even worth the time to click the buttons to place an order! You need to wait until early afternoon, no earlier than 1pm, I am going $12OTM on both sides, 2dte..if today’s Monday, and SPY is $655, I’m selling the Wednesday $667/$669, $643/$641. By the following morning, assuming SPY didn’t move more than $3 against me, it’s already up 40%. I will close that spread out within 20-30 mins and repeat. I’m up 619% this year so far, including losses from Tues/Wednesday. All other times I’ve gotten lucky and closed before things went against me. Some days I didn’t make much because it was adjusting but more importantly I didn’t lose money. If you trade 0dte, you will get wrecked in the long run, it’s not worth the risk. In a normal market, I’d go 4dte and close after the second day. It’s easy to pick up 40% or more. Don’t sell spreads weeks out, it’s a waste of capital, takes forever to make any money.

Axonum

Dont forget taco tweet "negotiations are going well" in premarket to send SPY up 1%

djai50

Holding oil calls and SPY puts, will that print Monday?

marketmispricing

Just joined your channel...I spent the last 18 months through tons of trial and error trying to identify mispriced opportunities for put/credit spreads 100% focused on SPY 0DTE. Your group sounds perfect to talk more through shared experiences...so much to understand and how hard it is to create an edge. And I love your word simple :)

RunsaberSR

Oil and SPY now go green together. $680 eow. 🙏

Superente_

SPY will be at 720 by July. The last two pumps is all I needed to see. Market doesn´t give a shit. Stocks go up.

Traditional-Koala927

Long OXY calls then sold for 25% that turned out to be + 400% at expo. Long SPY calls sold for +40% turns out to be +1000% at expo. How stop MADE 0 dollars. Port almost recover How stop Please Help

Manufactured_feces

"A" for effort. SPY +20 %

Dude_HaHa

His inheritance as in something he received, or he left you an inheritance in a will? In either case, SPY 300

Prestigious_belly206

Just buy SPY. Goes down but comes back up and goes higher. Easy peazy

Manufactured_feces

Start a war with Cuba and make peace the same day. SPY + 10%

StraitOfHummus

An asteroid could fall and block the Strait and SPY would hit 700 same day.

OkResponsibility2470

Iran rejected ceasefire Monday 8AM 🥭: talks going well! SPY +3%

Unlikely_Proof_7772

WW3 Confirmed ➡️ SPY 📈

TJMBeav

I recommend the podcast "The Compound". One of several Josh Browns productions. Not the easiest listen/watch but some really good insights. Makes what happened yesterday more sensible and some interesting slants on recent data. All I can say is that after watching it I feel very comfortable with my SPY and USO puts over the next week or so. Good stuff

orsomeshitidk

Wow SPY would be so shocked to learn this if it wasn’t manipulated

ShittyUsernane1222

🥭 is the kind of guy who kicks and taunts Jesus while Jesus is carrying the cross. calls on divine punishment against 🥭. puts on SPY.

Warm_Implement3088

Unleaded 87 is $4.20 in South West PA. But you know, SPY $800

acrossseasons

It can happen again and I’m not at all afraid of that. If you were buying all of those years you’d be up 5-10x now in SPY alone. Stop trying to time the market and just put money in every month. It’s been proven over and over that it’s the right thing to do

Superente_

Next week SPY 670? SPY 690 in three? And ATH at the beginning of May? This market clearly doesn´t care anymore about the war.

_hiddenscout

Also DARPA is part of defense spending, which has lead to things like GPS and the internet. I think for short term SNAP has better ROI, but like you said, the money still circulates. Even if the idea is like the defense contractors are getting super rich, well I mean LMT was like unperforming the SPY over the past 5 years until recently. On the flip side, WMT and KR would be some of companies that benefit from SNAP spending, which all three of these are betting the SPY over a 5 year period. Like you, not trying to argue morals or what is better or worse, but simply even corporation will benefit from any government spending.

IncidentSome4403

Market timing is a fool errand blah blah blah aside. My bet is that we have further to fall. Before this oil nightmare even started SPY had been effectively range bound since October and was slowly drifting lower in Jan and Feb. If inflation returns tech earnings are not gonna look so stellar. IMO the market was already hitting the “ok, now prove it” stage with the AI narrative towards the end of last year. TLDR I see more reasons to go lower than for us to rebound.

Present_Lion_904

On 01 APR after a morning run up to 6610, the index pulled back to 6580, which was the VWAP on the SPY. \-MACD lines have crossed over and opening down through the 0 line. \-RSI was oversold, under 30 (can remain in extremes for a while). \-VIX was spiking up. \-Chart printed red candle, which a close below the VWAP. \-Next big GEX level was 6550. Entry: SPXW 6575/6550/6525 Long Butterfly @ 5.30 (debit), 2:20PM Exit: 7.50 (credit), 2:35PM \*Not all trades go so smoothly of course.

pineapplekiwipen

War in Iran will cause such a economic boom that every single company will be making incredible profit. Dozens milions hires. If strait is not opened and invasion happens within this month i fully expect SPY to pump aobve 900$. Spy can rise 90% by the end of this year. Imagine spy aobve 900, that would be very much likely if fullscale war in Iran were to happen.

AphexPin

War in Iran will cause such a economic colapse that not a single company will be making any profit. Dozens milions lay offs. If strait is not opened and invasion happens within this month i fully expect SPY to crash bellow 300$. Spy can fall 90% by the end of this year. Imagine spy bellow 100, that would be very much likely if fullscale war in Iran were to happen.

duxaosm

Lets see those long SPY 300 puts you got.

marketmispricing

Great questions...basically I am looking to see if the options implied volatility is way higher or lower than what the stock has actually been doing. If the IV is jacked up but the stock has been semi-chill...that option is likely overpriced and good to sell...TBH it's perfect for put/call credit spreads (leaning more to the call credit spread side.) And sorry...I meant credit spreads not butterflies. And when theta is grinding hard in your favor and you have some indication of the option being overpriced...that is when I jump in. finally...your power hour comment could not be any more accurate. that dealer hedge stuff is so nasty and can yank it way up or down depending on their positions they're covering...and I have to think about that as well when looking at volume on the option chain. Lastly: I only focus on 0DTE on SPY...and spent 18 months trying to create an algorithm that 100% focuses on that. Happy to share more if you're interested.

knoqd_

> Iran has officially told mediators it isn't willing to meet US officials in Islamabad in the coming days, and that US demands are unacceptable - WSJ Believe it or not SPY +2% on Monday

madhewprague

War in Iran will cause such a economic colapse that not a single company will be making any profit. Dozens milions lay offs. If strait is not opened and invasion happens within this month i fully expect SPY to crash bellow 300$. Spy can fall 90% by the end of this year. Imagine spy bellow 100, that would be very much likely if fullscale war in Iran were to happen.

Forward_Affect5754

What does that even...if SPY drops 20% you think stocks like Hood go down what like 90%.... 50% is a huge drop already

moosewithamuffin

SPY flat until the heat-death of the universe

emblemboy

I have about 1100 shares of FLY stock that I got through stock options at my old company. Post IPO lockout ended in February and I've held so far. I'm currently thinking of taking a little bit of risk with this. My stock basis is like $0.60 a share. The total amount cost me $670 to get. Currently they are worth around 35k since FLY is currently at $33 a share. The talks of a space x IPO seems to be inflating lots of space stocks. My current plan is to sell 10% or so and re-invest I to SPY/QQQ, whatever. For maybe half of the remaining I'm really considering doing covered calls as a way to get some credit. And then just holding the rest. Or am I just overthinking all this and I should just sell all of it an reinvest into an index fund.

Monk_Boy

Why not just sell puts on the SPY or QQQ at whatever you think the bottom will be.

Equivalent-Coat-7605

I will be on long dated puts waiting. As for SPY up and to the right

UnivalveX

boots on the ground any second now. the question is how high will SPY pump once it happens?

UnivalveX

boots on the ground any second now. the question is how high will SPY pump once it happens?

madhewprague

War in Iran will cause such a economic colapse that not a single company will be making any profit. Dozens milions lay offs. If strait is not opened and invasion happens within this month i fully expect SPY to crash bellow 300$. Spy can fall 90% in next year. Imagine spy bellow 100, that would be very much likely if fullscale war in Iran were to happen.

NoFuckingValue

I've never seen SPY trade as flat as it's been today. Literally so shocked I can't look away from the ticker. Absolutely nothing

BiblicalAss

War in Iran will send SPY to all time highs.

ShittyUsernane1222

If SPY was pricing in fundamentals, it would be trading below 100 dollars lmao

SeaweedLeft9746

!banbet SPY 640 7d

DKtwilight

If you’re long term you don’t care. If you’re a trader, say swing, knowing when not to trade can be the difference between a solid CAGR and one that’s not beating SPY

SeaweedLeft9746

Banbet! SPY 630 7d

Fast-Reply6409

Boomers will buy stocks on Monday to show their patriotic support for America. SPY up 3% after futures down 4% overnight

madhewprague

!banbet SPY 550 2w

paq12x

I am a little younger than you are, and I am buying like crazy. In my 401 (k) account, I always buy since it's automatic, and with a great match. Every 2 weeks, I have $3k going into the index from my 401k contributions. In my taxable account, I always buy. I've been buying since forever, so I have a lot of unrealized gain. So what if the last few hundred VOO/SPY come out at an unrealized loss? I'll use that to offset the gains when I need to sell the shares during retirement. I just looked. I bought 1150 SPY during March. Only 150 of those shares are in the green. I am not worrying about the current situation at all. The money came from bonds and SGOV. My biggest regret was not dumping everything I had into the market during the dot-com bust. I made up for that by putting everything into the 2008 crash and the COVID crash. I literally had almost no emergency funds during that crash. My "emergency" fund was my Roth contributions and my 401 (k) loan if I ever need it. I was 100% confident in my employment, and it worked out in my favor at the end.

Wulfric05

!banbet SPY 640 76h

Intelligent-Claim193

All the degens, stay away from this—I’m looking for a real answer so I can have some peace of mind after how much I lost on Friday. Why is the market green right now? Oil was up 11% and showed no signs of dropping, yet SPY still moved up. What caused the push in the morning, and why did it consolidate around 654 for the rest of the day? Shouldn’t it have dropped closer to 640? I’m not looking for a degen take—I just want to understand what’s going on so I don’t get burned again on Monday.

tombrady011235

Very low volume on SPY today. It's like it's not moving at all

Put_Er_There_Sport

If we can impeach mango and the rest of this administration by sunday, the war will end and SPY will go up 15%

SuspiciousStable9649

SPY is green! 😏

No_Type1123

if you want to retire but still want to participate in the market, just put your money in the SPY not individual stocks, and get out when price goes below the 50 or the 200 sma, depending on your risk tolerance. and get back in when it cross above that same sma

option-trader

Shit, I just came from two posts losing money on 0dte SPY/SPX puts, and here you are losing 20K on 0dte puts and calls.

option-trader

Interesting, I hardly see anyone use the 9 and 21 ema. I use both on my minute chart and they work great. I'll use them for SPY 0dte option in the morning, but I tend to trade SPX 0dte towards the afternoon at strike with prices around $1-$3. These 0dte SPX trades in the afternoon have been a money maker over the last 2-3 weeks.

AssignmentMammoth696

Why are you measuring the market by looking at single stocks? If the SPY is not even down 10% and your single stocks are down that much, expect it to get a lot more bloodier when SPY goes down to 20% or 30%

MikeyB7509

I average in every month. Shooting for 11 years to retire if I can keep up saving rate and make 8% but I’m keeping a decent amount on the sidelines for for a correction. Looking for 580-620 in SPY

GullibleSky1269

There are no bears anywhere - a bear would hold a March27Put at 390..if you’re under age 40 you’ve never “felt” a recession or market downturn for 15 months- There are zero fundamentals behind SPY 690- the whole system is debt and the lenders are cutting off the heroine to private credit- it is over you just don’t realize it yet- time to stop inflation and print another 6-10 Trillion- how do you think they will get inflation under control to print more ?- the same crash they used in 70’s 82’ 87’ 91’ …blah blah- maybe one last run with all the fluffy FAKE fiat created and then reality around August ..enjoy :)

GoZukkYourself

On the third day, SPY rose 🤲

UnivalveX

can already imagine SPY pumping +2%

Conrad3k

At this point a nuclear exchange in the middle east will end with SPY closing at +0,5%.

Flat-Focus7966

Lost banbet for SPY 660 this week but got pretty close. Ban comes into effect today evening Will be back in a week with SPY at 655-665