SPY

git0ffmylawnm8

I'm down 79% YTD trading SPY options. So this is probably more viable than whatever the fuck I'm doing

hayleybts

My SPY calls better print tmrw, no fcking bad news

financiallythriving

Gap up on SPY in 3 hours right

Creepy-Fennel-852

But who knows how that goes, never thought I’d see SPY, USO, and GLD all be green on the same days 🤣

Sufficient_Habit5091

So for almost all of history, buywrite (and their mathematically equivalent selling put strategies) tend to just straight up lose to the underlying. For obvious reasons... you are selling the upside but have all the downside still. The compensation is over an entire market cycle you have higher Sharpe ratios typically. Also interestingly, IV continues to remain elevated recently without much actual volatility. Here's 3 month returns of buywrite vs. underlying on SPY and QQQ, I threw in JEPI as well which is a professional actively managed vol selling strat: https://i.imgur.com/uxqFg6q.png Everything else 6 month and longer it falters: https://i.imgur.com/uxqFg6q.png

Many_Tip_3973

SPY 770+ open

ballzstreetwets

I want SPY to open up 10 points so I can yolo 0dte puts and make 40k for the day. No sideways $hit please 🙏

Hellmale

Holding SPY $772 puts, TSLA $377.5 puts, JETS $30.5 puts, MRNA $80 puts😝

ShittyUsernane1222

if SPY randomly had an +100% day how would wsb react?

Tough_Bug_783

Black-Scholes doesn’t generate the prices or the main gamma map on the site. Prices, trades, quotes and Greeks come from the live feed. The feed’s Greeks drive the walls and exposure map; we only use Black-Scholes for the gamma-flip curve and vanna/charm. That’s appropriate for European-style SPX. For SPY, QQQ and single names, those specific calculations are approximations—not the whole site. OI is prior-close; the tape and CVD are live. Dealer positioning is an estimate, and we say that in the methodology. =D

Designer-Salt-3119

Approaching September, the worst months for SPY. One of those since everyone believes in it, it will happen sort of thing

DavidLeeBroth

SPY gap ip

Fbgm26

For a month or two, I might manually observe few things, but no guarantees. I’m 2 years in. I collect millions of data points per day. I’ve csv market data in from the past 40 years to when i started it. I’m not going to go great detail about what i do. But i may be able to add something if i run it alongside and run comparison. Time is my constraint with my own work. What id use is you **gamma flip, call/put wall, CVD, confluence state, actual SPY behavior** Then compare those observations against my own. **modeled gamma/delta, SPY structure, volatility framework, option-chain behavior, and cross cross-asset confirmation. Calendar events, news, etc etc. I’ve built something similar albeit very different. Because dealer position flip points can only be essentially guessed, and their probability is not something I weight unless my chart reads can confirm obvious mechanical flow, they become just reference point for me, weighted. So I may run it as a comparison to look for blind spots. Side by side If i find the time. I’ll DM you the results of any findings, no guarantees. But there’s some problems which you acknowledge, and that transparency is 👍** This could expose something valuable either way. To us both. If you repeatedly identify inflection points that my framework doesn’t, and vice versa **we can investigate why**. If my system catches deterioration while yours remains bullish because its OI-based gamma structure is stale, **that’s equally valuable**. And if both independently converge at the same level while VIX1D/flow/cross-asset confirm it, that’s a much stronger observation than either model alone. One other thing I really like is your scoring methodology is falsifiable. A call wall only gets scored if tested, must be reached within 0.1%, and price must close back below it; equivalent rules exist for put walls, king node, expected move and regime persistence. You publish wins and misses. That’s substantially better than retrospectively drawing levels and declaring victory. Currently I just use one of the many subscription based gex/dex sites, which has no api, but they have discussed potentially. So I don’t use against my research model, just for intraday observation of my own. I do find this an interesting side project, currently I do not have the time but I’m book marking. Thanks

financiallythriving

SPY +1% is more probable than SPY -1% Monday

JackORoses

I think NVDA is primed to pump. that will juice the narrative and pull the rest of the AI trade with it and SPY along. Last week was the dump to push into the next leg up, with NVDA leading the way, moving towards $250. I think bonds will settle down. I also think it's about time for another round of rumors of rumors of a peace deal MOU.

JackORoses

SPY gap up to 770 when the market opens tonight

anonymous_ghost-1

Dump, pump, calls through the walls, puts to the ground. No oil shortages, but oil price keep climbing. $ going down as intended by 🥭 But whatever SPY almost flat.

beargambogambo

Started with $500 last week. Got it up to $6.7k so far with SPY FDs. 👀

No_Presentation9490

DJT, just like George Bush, is the perfect patsy for economic reset and why he was installed in the first place. if he bails out SPY, everyone will just blame him and not the people pulling the strings

Legendary-Lemon

SPY is surprisingly good at repositioning itself.

No_Presentation9490

it's too big a component of SPY, if nvidia customers default the us government will bail nvidia out. you think it can't happen but no one thought 2008 bailouts would happen

sanumala

Backtested this on 8,447 days of SPY. Then I shuffled the moon labels randomly 2,000 times. The random shuffles produced a wider spread than the actual moon 54% of the time. https://preview.redd.it/cop0hrtqd4lh1.png?width=1700&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa3d287564a7fc22238c0545e9633cc4d0e021dd Congratulations, the moon is worse at this than a coin.

PatientNo7361

SPY 800C Mon

MrGrampton

SPY 500 by EoW Source: SPY Call at 800 by EoW

ShittyUsernane1222

it would be funny if NVDA fails its profit estimates and then has such an large price spike that SPY goes to 900 overnight and liquidates NVDA bers.

Neel_Crashkari

I'm buying 90DTE SPY puts at 700

beargambogambo

Don’t be a little bitch. Buy SPY FDs

DysphoriaGML

SPY returned 3,133% furing the ame perior lol

Jerikolol

weekend tech 100 is down only -0.03% lmao. How much is SPY down?

Valkorion335786

I bought a $54 pack of MTG trading cards and pulled $800 words of cards This is bullish for SPY

Capital_Ad3296

>For a correlation to be valid for investing, there must be a logical driver. Gravitational pull or the light reflected off the moon has no bearing on corporate earnings, interest rates, tech innovation, or inflation—the actual forces that drive SPY.

GoZukkYourself

SPY? I imagine these companies are already in the S&P 500.

Guh-reat55

What's SPY opening at on monday?

stonksf

Bruh I am just chilling in SPY rn 😂 dodging the volatility

PoppaBurgundy3

My downfall came when the Iran war started and I was doing 0DTE SPY plays. Lost 20K and switched to doing earnings plays to make it back and haven’t looked back since making it back. Can’t recommend earnings plays on volatile stocks in tech/AI/semiconductor sectors enough

hftrobo9285

!banbet SPY 200 3d

Happy-n-Healthy

My portfolio is 75% real estate, 15% T bills and 10% SPY. Am I diversified?

No_Presentation9490

nothing is safe in a crash except cash. you buy BRKB after the dust settles. when BRKB recovers sooner than SPY, you sell BRKB and buy SPY. this is what every serious trader with no contractual obligation to stay invested does

Skyland002

Most useful comment in the thread, thanks. You’re right the SPX/SPY space is saturated and “cheaper” is a weak pitch — I’m not going to win as clone #13 or by undercutting an $80 API. The futures-proxy angle is interesting but I’ll be straight — I trade 0DTE SPX, not futures, so RTY/GC via IWM/GLD isn’t something I could speak to honestly or build well right now. Good idea, just not my lane(possibly a future addition to the app if requested). Your point about proving the edge is the one that landed. Right now I don’t have that track record, and levels alone are a commodity. That’s the gap I’d need to close before this is worth anyone’s money — not more features. Appreciate the straight talk.

-medicalthrowaway-

It’s called consolidation. These key levels (\_00) tend to attract (and deflect) movement They are “psychological” levels of support and resistance but price also stays at those levels as sort of ‘safe havens’ Once it’s determined that price is leaving consolidation and those psychological key levels, volatility is going to pick up until it finds another “safe haven” It’s interesting that those psychological levels are so prominent, showing just how wrapped up in our emotions/psyche humans are There was never a -11% day open to close on SPY when it was around 500, though, so this data is BS

d33p7r0ubl3

VariationSeparate had regards buying SPY 180p

Skyland002

Fair hits, Ill concede somethings because you are right. On naive vs real GEX: what I’ve built is OI-based gamma levels with a standard dealer-sign assumption — so yes, “naive” GEX by your definition, same category as the strike-plot levels the big providers show to everyone. I’m not claiming real-time dealer flow / HIRO-style positioning — that needs the OPRA firehose and whole-book modeling, which I know I can’t do cheaply or well, so I’m not pretending to. Where I’d push back: I’m not a dev cosplaying as a trader. I trade 0DTE SPX — iron flies, BWBs — and I already use gamma regimes and walls in my own process. This started as a tool for how I actually trade. So the honest offer isn’t “cheaper real-time GEX.” It’s clean, honest OI-based levels — walls, flip, regime — for 0DTE SPY/QQQ, priced for retail, with no pretense that it’s institutional flow data. If that’s useful to people, great. If OI-based levels are useless to you specifically, totally fair — different tool for a different trader.

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $759.00 (below) | $765.72 | -0.9% | Aug 24, 9:29 PM |

Faxie9

!banbet SPY 759 2D

Cool-Run-245

0dte options: SPY or QQQ opens red losses 2 to 3% from open price (good movement for single trading session). Then at 11:30am eastern there hasn’t been a real bounce down 3% from open at that point. You come in get calls and bet on a complete V if it works 5 to 10x your money. The further there is no real bounce the less of a bounce you need let’s say it’s 1:30 eastern down 3% now you only need a 1 to 2% pull up for a nice juice gain. Complete gamble you call it wrong and you lose everything.

orcassharks

It’s super bearish every weekend and then green shreks Monday shut them up. Until next weekend. They’ve been at it since SPY was 380

DressPrestigious7088

Buffet missed the entire bull market. He’s not smart. Hes only relevant because he bought hundreds of 1000s of SPY shares in the 60s for the price of a strawberry.

afishinacar

SPX spreads atm 0DTE is probably as close as you can get. The range between max profit and max loss is so narrow that unless SPY is exactly flat from when you buy in you’re either doubling up or losing it all. Not exactly 50/50 because of fees and betting bullish usually nets a bit less than 2x, but pretty damn close.

olmsteadsgarden

0DTE but smart. I do 10:30-11:00AM Eastern window only. Only $SPY. Watch $VIX for market stability. Don’t trade the news or politic tweets. A successful day of trading (hell a week of successful trading) might not be touching the market at all. Look at your P/L over a month vs a day. You will lose some but hopefully make more. Keep a journal with what worked and didn’t. You will make mistakes as we all do. The goal is to have atleast a 51% chance your bet lands. The best strategy is to both invest in your restraint and protect your portfolio from emotions.

SnS2500

\> To recap, these are all the same basket of stocks, No, they are not. MTUM and QUAL are large and midcaps. Even then, MTUM has outperformed SPY for the past decade while QUAL has underperformed. What you showed with those two actually is large caps outperformed midcaps for the past ten years... and by a lot too. (SPY +313%, MDY +180%) SPY's "factor" is "large caps in the S&P 500 by market weight". For the past decade that has beaten equal weight and pure value factors by a lot, but it is illogical to compare MTUM and QUAL to SPY. If you use SPMO, which only draws from the S&P500, it is up 516% for the past decace compared to SPY's +313%. So instead of the wrong conclusion you drew, the correct one is... some smart beta options will outperform, others will underperform.

jayyfo

I mean you can have theta (the decay) work for you and not against you using different strategies, honestly I am shocked that you have not learned this yet with this large of an account, You have basically been rolling a large rock up a hill but I'm surprised it didn't crush you, I worked as a previously registered investment advisor and stock broker before my back has gotten so bad with idiopathic scoliosis and no solution and not a candidate for surgery that I'm waiting for disability income, and I will never be able to do a full time regular job so this is it for me , I've learned for over 12years but because of poverty mindset I never broke out I really want to encourage you that if I was well enough where you are dear God put some away with some for of target date retirement fund or VOO or SPY (ofc once a viable dip presents itself) but please dear God don't keep trading single legged options with this size of money, at least without learning more about every strategy you can do with this, even with smaller sums You do realize pattern day trader rules are gone? I would immediately take out 100k or more and just start start an account with 2k God speed! Check out theo trade with don Kaufman he's one of the creators of think or swim and teaches , even his free weekend videos are amazing and can get you more curious about how you might squeak better edge out with this size of an account without risking so frickin much

whttevrr

I'm not saying, I'm asking. It appears to me everyone says wait 15 minutes and mark the candle. but when I do that it seems irrelevant. There is a combination of news and data flowing in the morning that sometimes means that you need to just ride the momentum wave in whatever direction the ticker is moving. Beginning of the month with SPY moving up for a couple days meant wait a few minutes and then start buying calls and then sell them a few minutes later. But that only works for so long. What do you do when the markets are in the churn? It seems to me that NVDA and SPY typically do a little morning swing a couple days a week. I saw this 'strategy' promoted and thought it made sense. I have been trading options just long enough to know I need more information. I would like to be able to make a little every now and then to supplement any income I have. This seems a lot like what I normally try to do. I just need consistency. What consistently works for you? I usually wait for a reversal and play the trend. But it does not have consistency for me. Mostly because instead of cutting my losses right away I double down and fiddle with my stop losses when it doesn't work. I was hoping I would get some pointers on reversal trades and while a couple responses have been helpful and sincere, it seems a few blank profiles would rather just BS about whatever. Which is cool, I mean, internet points are still points, right? But mostly I am looking for reliable entry and exit strategies on trend reversal trading.

financiallythriving

SPY -3% on Monday and I’ll buy a Tesla Y model to stick it up my ass

IWishIwasAwhale1

!banbet SPY 755 3d

Iamhappilyconfused

Honestly I don't care whether SPY goes up or down, as long as volume picks back up again

harrison_wintergreen

This is interesting and I applaud investing your own money for the test. However, the 'beware' in the title is misguided. - you didn't lose money with any of those ETFs, at least in nominal terms. - you didn't know in 2017 what would happen by 2026. - that last ~9 years don't predict the next 10 years, and the last ~9 years may or may not be typical. from 2003 to 2013, RSP outperformed SPY by a wide margin. https://imgur.com/a/v4Uow9Z - SPY is not necessarily an appropriate control or benchmark for all those ETFs. for example QUAL uses the MSCI USA Sector Neutral Quality Index as a benchmark, not the S&P 500. Comparing every investment on the planet to SPY/VOO is a common error I see on reddit. - as others mentioned, some of the ETFs may have smaller drawdowns -- which certain investors might prefer. some of those ETFs might also have higher dividend income potential, which is also a perfectly valid strategy for those who want it.

No_Stand5622

No sex until SPY 10% correction

Fit_Equal6932

You will need to have the infrastructure to listen to the OPRA data feed which is a multiple terabyte data stream per day in real time to establish whether the trades were a buy or a sell to an MM. It will still be fuzzy at best since most trading is inside the spread and you won’t know it the MM lifted that quote or some retail inside the spread order bought it. For anything that is in SPY/QQQ the MM positioning is based on the total book they hold across all tickers and looking simply at any of these in isolation gives you nothing useful. So unless you can replicate the MM book market wide and then also have a feel for whether they are over/under hedged based on their estimate of the stock valuation these GEX models are completely useless. I think you won’t even be able to get the step 1 of listening to the OPRA feed done in a cost effective way to make your service cheap. Forget the rest of the challenges.

ugh_you_swine

Yup - an ETF like VGT (Vanguard's Tech) absolutely destroyed compared to SPY.

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Kachowxboxdad (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $765.18 → $763.00 | -0.3% | 1d | Lost |

financiallythriving

SPY -2% on Monday and I’ll stick two watermelons up my ass

enc-nyc

Sent wife to buy some steaks and she came back w/ some tofu & canned beans instead. SPY to 800 on Monday.

financiallythriving

It recommend me SPY 600p 0dte on Monday

financiallythriving

Tariffs on maple syrup SPY -20%

BlueGridApparel

What’s your strategy for scalping SPY and QQQ? Do you just wait for whichever way it’s trending for that day?

sck178

In my expert opinion, SPY will keep going up until it doesn't. This is not investment advise, but also it is.

TCGKorean

RIP my SPY calls for next week....

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Infinite-Unit7010 (0W - 2L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $777.54 → $700.00 | -10.0% | 5d | Lost |

lesheconazucar

Then why buy Friday 0dtes for SPX/SPY if options expiring on Monday are just better?

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $842.29 (above) | $765.72 | +10.0% | Aug 29, 10:35 AM |

Mackenzii91

!banbet SPY +10% 1W

Sufficient_Habit5091

Get out of USD assets. My VGK crushed SPY in 2025, 36% vs. 17%. VEU was similar. Going forward people are catching on country is politically unstable, institutions breaking down, broke, defaulting on debt, getting ass kicked in wars and printing money to cover it all up.

Objective_Ad3539

I for one believe in social justice for marginalized groups. WBNA should let those bearded ladies ball. SPY TO SEVENTEEN DOLLARS

LifeOnMarsBarBarBarr

0TDE SPY calls what are we doing here?

Beneficial-Effect414

SPY at 6650 on Hyperliquid 

Beneficial-Effect414

SPY at 6650 on Hyperliquid

Beneficial-Effect414

Short SPY

teddyespo

Safe practice is 15% of take home should be investments, minimum. That being said, what’s your income AFTER your living expenses? Like how much of that $11k remains after paying all your bills, debt, and food? What’s your risk tolerance? Do you want to be aggressive? Do you want to watch the markets and make pivots and trades often? Or would you rather “set it and forget it”? Then you need to think about your investment vehicles. Do you want to “lock up” your investments in retirement accounts to take advantage of tax strategies? Or are you okay with the taxable brokerage? I guess what I'm getting at is there is no easy correct answer. Everyone has different priorities and preferences. Just know that the sooner, the better. If you’re still figuring these questions out, just throw it all into SPY or VTI on Monday.

Weekly_One8412

SPY down 1.5%... we are in a bear market now

hermeskino715

So we are getting the tariffs. You know what to do SPY :clifford:

DarthTheo

I think now is a good time for me to buy SPY as a Canadian

need2sleep-later

SPX and XSP settle to cash, not shares, correct? SPY is an ETF, XSP isn't.

inevitable_fallen

Remember SPY dropped like a rock when the first tarrif was added for Canada. It's not something SPY even flinch now, CALLS are still the play.

Flatttt_Outttt

You can trade SPY contracts for a few bucks. Recheck your first sentence first.

Salt_Contract342

And how much more would you have made just parking it in something like SPY or VOO?

fujimonster

1. he bought it during market hours. 2. he can't cancel it , it rides and he get's to see where it's at Monday morning. What /ES futures before open -- Will give a good idea where SPY will be .

RuleSafe6767

SPY just has to touch $667.5 (that's only 50c away from its final price today), and these will be up 30%. Will be close to 3x on them if SPY crosses $670 for a bit. I think both scenarios are highly probable given the biggest options expiration is done for August.

Good_Ride_2508

Theta Decay unless SPY goes above 767.75 (breakeven for $1.75), winning chances are less ! I really doubt winning ! Let us see.

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/IWishIwasAwhale1 (1W - 5L, 17%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▲ | $769.06 → $778.00 | +1.2% | 2d | Lost |

bulgar88

$0.35, not $35. SPY doesn't even move that much per day. He'd never recover his contract the second he executed it

AllRightLetsSeeIt

I have a sizable position in the Schwab Fundamental Index funds, which *do* take almost all stocks in a category and then weight them very differently. The net result is very value tilted and moderately small tilted. They’re extremely well diversified and are effectively “indirect smart beta” by their very nature. FNDX, their closest equivalent to SPY, has performed better than most of the funds you listed, hitting $1242 in your experiment in an era infamously bad for value and for smaller stocks. I’m continuing to hold, hoping that a rotation is due (I’ve been saying that for awhile…) but in the meantime I think the results have been very respectable for having a heavy value tilt in an era where value has been pummeled.

BentoMan

Take a break. SPY goes up but it feels like nothing is back to ATH so it’s confusing 

bbbbombbbb

bring back PDT if it means SPY can move more than $3 during trading hours

financiallythriving

SPY is going to gap up on Monday isn’t it

wattsinabox

VOO, SPY, QQQ and keep adding your salary.

RuleSafe6767

AH is fine, prices lifted up a bit. SPY right at $767

confused_teabagger

Can't trust SPY since it got infected with Tech stocks

RuleSafe6767

$3.83/contract now today, so better than yesterday. You got these for a heck of a price. Even if VIX jumps a lot on a small self off, I could see these going above your break even. On the other hand - you only need SPY to jump 1.7% over the next two and half weeks, which is extremely probable. Still feeling really good about these.

Many_Tip_3973

We closed SPY for the week at 767 after yesterday’s dump? Yeah low 770s Monday.

Competitive-Water944

SPY $400p about to print 🥰