Reddit Posts
What's with the price-dependent periods of reduced volatility?
Martingale the US 40trill government deb 🎰
Beware of smart beta ETFs. 9.75 year review. After taking into account fees and dividends, they kind of suck.
Has anyone had consistent success with the 'retirement trade' strategey of a morning reversal trade?
Behind the Treasury Intervention - The Setup That Could Force the Fed to Follow
Convince me SSO (2X SPY) is a bad idea for long term investors
Full send calls on MRNA tomorrow 160 0DTE?
Treasury Intervened As Expected - Here’s What It Means
Trump Name-Drops Hyperliquid at the White House, How Will HYPE Price React?
I built a free dealer-gamma + live options-flow terminal for SPX/SPY/QQQ. No signup. Tear it apart.
Trump pauses 50% tariffs on Canada for 3 days
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
Beginner looking to make my first options trade — how would you approach this?
We preregistered a bearish gamma structure and measured it running the other way. Method inside.
Please help fuel my gambling addiction
[DD] Why $RDDT goes to $1,000 the exact second their AI team figures out Post-Nut Clarity
SPX is realizing 12.4 vol and the options market is only pricing 11.3
VIX Buying Points to a Short-Term Pullback Next Week but SPY Could Still Squeeze Above $780
SPY is fake. US Bonds are fake. Bitcoin is ready for you.
Closed SPY $763.00C 08/04/26 for $79,709.00 gain (+4003%) last week, I didn't know I could post like this. No body text so this is in title
Tried trading SPY 0 DTE and my account glitched and I'm now a multi-millionaire.
Can my 64-year-old dad retire soon? $700k assets + Social Security
MY FELLOW DEGENS AND APETARDS. PUTS AT OPEN. $SPY
SPY Is Coiling Below $775 What Could Trigger the Breakout
made some bad choices this week, inexperienced, need advice.
Sell ODTE puts on SPY then sell Monthly Calls?
At what point does owning SPY + QQQ + a growth ETF stop being diversification and start being the same bet in different wrappers?
I trade for a living - why I’m still bullish into CPI and the levels I’m trading on SPY, QQQ, oil and DRAM
Built a free dealer-gamma (GEX) map for SPX/SPY/QQQ — tell me where the methodology is wrong.
DD - The case for SPY 130,000 by 2048
Option Loss No Internet +30k to -$20k
UPDATE #7 (The End. For now at least.): I’m Bout To Pull The Greatest Trading Comeback OF ALL TIME $19 to $1 million
From Olive Presses to Power Laws: A 2,600-Year History of the Call Option
gonna full port SPY 8/14 $800C with 40k monday at open AMA
For anyone wondering exactly how much QQQ and VOO/SPY actually overlap, here is the math.
Do you think HTZ will help me recover the $23k loss from SPY ODTE?
Do you think HTZ will help me recover the $23k loss from SPY ODTE?
UPDATE #7 (The End. For now at least.): I’m Bout To Pull The Greatest Trading Comeback OF ALL TIME $19 to $1 million
The Nasdaq 100's valuation premium over the S&P 500 is near a 9-year low. Is tech actually expensive anymore?
I Trade for a Living - Why I’m Buying Dips After the Forced Buying is Over and More DD on Gold and Liquidity
SPY predictive dashboard with ChatGPT contd. not financial advice just for fun
While I Profited a Couple Hundred….this is the worst loss I’ve ever experienced
YOLO: SPY 7900 by Friday. I’m all in on 7850 Calls,
I Trade for a Living - What Comes After the Rally & the “Hidden QE”
SPY at $774 in overnight trading
Experiment: 1 month, SPY ODTE closest to $X (up to 100), buy at specific time T_buy and sell at T_close constantly fixed over the time. Can alternate between put or a call. What are your suggestions for X, T_buy and T_close?
Mentions
You basically made a timeline of spy changes, given that the nominal price of SPY heavily, heavily correlates with time. What you found is a statistical artifact.
#Tomorrow will be one of those days where SPY is down 0.25% but every stock is down 3-5% LMAO🤌
if SPY is down 0.2% means stocks will be down 15-20% 😔
#SPY futes only down 0.2% whereas Nasdaq futes down -1% LMAO🤌
SPY looking shaky and somehow HTZ is still the main character lol. i’m just watching the chaos before picking a side.
The current setup on SPY reminds me of the midterm setup of 2018. It peaked the day before Sept OPEX then sold off 12% by Oct 29. Catalysts for the move higher over the next 19 trading days until Sept OPEX are NVDA earnings, Jackson Hole & a soft CPI in Sep
Broaden your horizons before you make a mess. There are so many things to do besides selling a covered call. E.g., you can sell a call on SPY if you hedge it by buying a higher strike call, aka vertical call credit spread. And that is only scratching the surface. Study study study before you put money at risk!!!!!
Dont wake me up until SPY earnings on Wednesday 😴
Imagine the dump after 🤡 Bessent speaks tomorrow afternoon, SPY going below 750
sooo SPCX calls SPY calls B puts SLV puts IBIT puts thank you 👍🏻
I need SPY 800 EOW or the children don’t eat. Your move market
SPCX puts SPY puts B calls SLV calls IBIT calls
IWM inching higher because I sold a $315 call SPY and QQQ can dump and ts will still march towards my strike
They’ve repatriated their investments due to the TSX outperforming SPY.
Everything is, so we can only hope SPY gets to its fair price of 420.
Are SPY 400p reasonable for this week?
Said every single night as SPY grinds +100% the past four years
SPY -2% and I’ll stick a watermelon up my assb
For alternatives with actual leverage without the daily reset drag: 1. Portfolio margin + low-cost index ETF — Buy SPY/VOO on margin at 1.2-1.5x. You get real continuous leverage, not path-dependent daily reset. Interest rate is the drag (~5-6% now), but over long horizons it's cleaner math than SSO's vol decay. 2. LEAPS calls on SPY — Deep ITM, 1.5-2yr out. Delta ~0.7-0.8 gives you synthetic leverage with defined downside (you can only lose the premium). No margin calls, no daily reset. The "hassle" is rolling every ~18 months. 3. Just don't. If you're truly long-term buy-and-hold, the boring answer is often correct: 100% VOO, let compounding do the work. Adding leverage to a retirement portfolio is like adding nitrous to a commuter car — technically works, statistically ends badly. The 1.3 beta figure from the comment above is spot-on. SSO's effective leverage over multi-year periods is far below 2x due to volatility drag. You're paying 2x risk for ~1.3x return. If you still want juice, the margin route is the least-bad option for a set-and-forget investor.
I'm kinda at a fuck it point in my life and might buy some LEAPS. SPY $800 😈
My first instinct is to short SPY and QQQ and all the fucking loser mag7 bitches, but that is what they're expecting this week. Going inverse, because the market is full regard at this time. Never bet against full retard...ever.
I don’t think this happens until SPY reports earnings
It’s actually a miracle SPY and QQQ are up double digits this year considering how regarded this admin is
bro really thought the no deal with Canada was going to collapse the SPY.
Reddit calling for black Monday when SPY is down 0.01% is peak wsb
if SPY had an -20% day, there would be still 0dte bears shorting and being liquidated at the short term bottom before the inevitable partial rebound and another -20% day
Wow my SPY puts gonna print hard tmrw
I don’t think we have seen SPY fall that fast in recent days
i don’t understand how anyone could finish seeing the big short and be bearish. moral of the story is the usa will bleed it’s population dry if it means SPY ATH
Holding SPY calls over the weekend feels like a poor use of my funds
SPY gets railed by BRC (Big Red Candle)
So coin flip odds. Skip the foreplay and just get 0DTE SPY calls at 9:35AM sell at 9:50
Mmmmm daddy put that SPY +.03% inside me and whisper ber fukt
they already have happened in slow motion. SPY in gold terms has lost value since 2008. SPY compared to M2 money supply is even more horrifying.
There SPY goes there SPY goes again….
SPY is down 0.06%. It’s fuckin over
Exactly why I've started allocating far more to VXUS than VT, and I've been prioritizing that over SPY.
SPY -3% tomorrow and I’ll take a shit at work tomorrow on my boss’s desk and quit
Why bother actually having SPY at 800 if Fox will just remove the ticker and call it a day?
It isn't about agreeing with me, it is about the subreddit's culture. You and a few others have been pleasant, one guy gave me useful advice about comparing the earnings yield with the 10 year treasury bond, another gave me some ETF suggestions. Most were rude an did not engage with the information I presented. It isn't burying my head to walk away from that. I didn't say I will never have an index fund, I simply don't prefer them. Why have 300 stocks in an index fund when I can carefully select 30 myself? I am not the one sneering and I have already generated a "salary." If I were the target audience of this group I'd have done what my finance text suggested and being an obedient retail investor putting 10% of my money into SPY or similar from my first job till today. I didn't, and what did do worked rather well. I may not have beaten the market for four years but I did make about double what the interest on my HYSA provided. Now I am doing far better than that, and importantly I don't want exposure to google, meta and so forth. I don't trust tech, expect an AI bubble burst and believe Gold will rise. My instincts have proven right this year, paired with the screening strategy in the OP. I am not sneering not burying my head. If you were the norm I'd be ok with that, if the guys with the usable advice were the norm I'd be a regular active member trying to provide value of my own. I am the one who has been sneered at by those burying their heads (rightly or wrongly, I can accept that I am seen as a dubious source despite my evidence). In short: What I am doing has been working and it *should,* as it isn't simply something I made up but rather an approximation of Buffett's approach. I am willing to have a German ETF (I used to have Korea fund as well but sold when the Iran war began) to have some exposure to their market but my stocks are overwhelmingly small value / blend. I will grant you that your advice would have been better than what I did for the first few years, but I may not have learned as much. In any case I appreciate your engagement and entirely understand your aversion to what you see as the stress of my approach. I actually enjoy it, hence my desire to discuss it with others who might know more.
it's so freaking over chat, SPY gonna take a dumpster dive tomorrow
> I have been at it for four years, only beat the market this year. Thought this might be a place to discuss what worked and get some feedback, apparently not. Beating the market one year isn't a sign of a successful strategy, right? Maybe you're a genius, or maybe you just got lucky this year. The reason people are telling you "get back to us in 9 more years" is because you are literally competing with index funds that have historically been safe to invest in and beat most stock picking options. That is the reason you are getting a reaction like this. Everyone can have a REALLY GOOD YEAR, with a really bad strategy. You seem to have an interesting idea on your hand, and you COULD backtest your model on historical data, especially the recent stock crashes in 2000, 2008, and 2021. You can at least validate that your model makes sense over a longer period than 1 year this way. > The odds of me coming back here at all are slim, six years from now near impossible. When you ask for feedback and react negatively to feedback that isn't positive, you're not going to improve in anything in life. Coming to reddit for feedback in 2026 is going to result in 90% of responses being 1-liners by people who just want to be part of some group-think voice. The "investing subreddit" group think is as follows: * Beating the market only matters if you can do it over a 10+ year period. * Anyone can gamble and get lucky on a year, it's not a reproducible strategy for people to follow * VT/SPY/INSERT DIVERSIFIED FUND and chill * Crypto dumb * Don't hold cash A lot of these have really good context behind them that doesn't come when people give you one-liner responses because they assume that everyone has drank the same Koolaid. But there are reasons behind it, you just need to find it.
SPX options are classified as Section 1256 contracts under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. This grants them a blended 60/40 tax treatment, meaning 60% of your net gains are taxed at lower long-term capital gains rates and 40% at ordinary short-term income tax rates, regardless of how long you hold the contract. SPY options are treated as taxable income and don't get this treatment. Typically if you are sizing an SPY trade with over $1k of capital, the equivalent SPX option is superior for these reasons
I'm not sure just a black leather jacket will do it for the CEO of SPY on Wednesday... The stakes are higher now. I think a full leather dress is needed this time.
Who’s holding the 300k of OI on SPY 10/16 525p and 150k OI on the 425p?
I'm down 79% YTD trading SPY options. So this is probably more viable than whatever the fuck I'm doing
My SPY calls better print tmrw, no fcking bad news
Gap up on SPY in 3 hours right
But who knows how that goes, never thought I’d see SPY, USO, and GLD all be green on the same days 🤣
So for almost all of history, buywrite (and their mathematically equivalent selling put strategies) tend to just straight up lose to the underlying. For obvious reasons... you are selling the upside but have all the downside still. The compensation is over an entire market cycle you have higher Sharpe ratios typically. Also interestingly, IV continues to remain elevated recently without much actual volatility. Here's 3 month returns of buywrite vs. underlying on SPY and QQQ, I threw in JEPI as well which is a professional actively managed vol selling strat: https://i.imgur.com/uxqFg6q.png Everything else 6 month and longer it falters: https://i.imgur.com/uxqFg6q.png
I want SPY to open up 10 points so I can yolo 0dte puts and make 40k for the day. No sideways $hit please 🙏
Holding SPY $772 puts, TSLA $377.5 puts, JETS $30.5 puts, MRNA $80 puts😝
if SPY randomly had an +100% day how would wsb react?
Black-Scholes doesn’t generate the prices or the main gamma map on the site. Prices, trades, quotes and Greeks come from the live feed. The feed’s Greeks drive the walls and exposure map; we only use Black-Scholes for the gamma-flip curve and vanna/charm. That’s appropriate for European-style SPX. For SPY, QQQ and single names, those specific calculations are approximations—not the whole site. OI is prior-close; the tape and CVD are live. Dealer positioning is an estimate, and we say that in the methodology. =D
Approaching September, the worst months for SPY. One of those since everyone believes in it, it will happen sort of thing
For a month or two, I might manually observe few things, but no guarantees. I’m 2 years in. I collect millions of data points per day. I’ve csv market data in from the past 40 years to when i started it. I’m not going to go great detail about what i do. But i may be able to add something if i run it alongside and run comparison. Time is my constraint with my own work. What id use is you **gamma flip, call/put wall, CVD, confluence state, actual SPY behavior** Then compare those observations against my own. **modeled gamma/delta, SPY structure, volatility framework, option-chain behavior, and cross cross-asset confirmation. Calendar events, news, etc etc. I’ve built something similar albeit very different. Because dealer position flip points can only be essentially guessed, and their probability is not something I weight unless my chart reads can confirm obvious mechanical flow, they become just reference point for me, weighted. So I may run it as a comparison to look for blind spots. Side by side If i find the time. I’ll DM you the results of any findings, no guarantees. But there’s some problems which you acknowledge, and that transparency is 👍** This could expose something valuable either way. To us both. If you repeatedly identify inflection points that my framework doesn’t, and vice versa **we can investigate why**. If my system catches deterioration while yours remains bullish because its OI-based gamma structure is stale, **that’s equally valuable**. And if both independently converge at the same level while VIX1D/flow/cross-asset confirm it, that’s a much stronger observation than either model alone. One other thing I really like is your scoring methodology is falsifiable. A call wall only gets scored if tested, must be reached within 0.1%, and price must close back below it; equivalent rules exist for put walls, king node, expected move and regime persistence. You publish wins and misses. That’s substantially better than retrospectively drawing levels and declaring victory. Currently I just use one of the many subscription based gex/dex sites, which has no api, but they have discussed potentially. So I don’t use against my research model, just for intraday observation of my own. I do find this an interesting side project, currently I do not have the time but I’m book marking. Thanks
SPY +1% is more probable than SPY -1% Monday
I think NVDA is primed to pump. that will juice the narrative and pull the rest of the AI trade with it and SPY along. Last week was the dump to push into the next leg up, with NVDA leading the way, moving towards $250. I think bonds will settle down. I also think it's about time for another round of rumors of rumors of a peace deal MOU.
SPY gap up to 770 when the market opens tonight
Dump, pump, calls through the walls, puts to the ground. No oil shortages, but oil price keep climbing. $ going down as intended by 🥭 But whatever SPY almost flat.
Started with $500 last week. Got it up to $6.7k so far with SPY FDs. 👀
DJT, just like George Bush, is the perfect patsy for economic reset and why he was installed in the first place. if he bails out SPY, everyone will just blame him and not the people pulling the strings
SPY is surprisingly good at repositioning itself.
it's too big a component of SPY, if nvidia customers default the us government will bail nvidia out. you think it can't happen but no one thought 2008 bailouts would happen
Backtested this on 8,447 days of SPY. Then I shuffled the moon labels randomly 2,000 times. The random shuffles produced a wider spread than the actual moon 54% of the time. https://preview.redd.it/cop0hrtqd4lh1.png?width=1700&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa3d287564a7fc22238c0545e9633cc4d0e021dd Congratulations, the moon is worse at this than a coin.
SPY 500 by EoW Source: SPY Call at 800 by EoW
it would be funny if NVDA fails its profit estimates and then has such an large price spike that SPY goes to 900 overnight and liquidates NVDA bers.
I'm buying 90DTE SPY puts at 700
Don’t be a little bitch. Buy SPY FDs
SPY returned 3,133% furing the ame perior lol
weekend tech 100 is down only -0.03% lmao. How much is SPY down?
I bought a $54 pack of MTG trading cards and pulled $800 words of cards This is bullish for SPY
>For a correlation to be valid for investing, there must be a logical driver. Gravitational pull or the light reflected off the moon has no bearing on corporate earnings, interest rates, tech innovation, or inflation—the actual forces that drive SPY.
SPY? I imagine these companies are already in the S&P 500.
What's SPY opening at on monday?
Bruh I am just chilling in SPY rn 😂 dodging the volatility
My downfall came when the Iran war started and I was doing 0DTE SPY plays. Lost 20K and switched to doing earnings plays to make it back and haven’t looked back since making it back. Can’t recommend earnings plays on volatile stocks in tech/AI/semiconductor sectors enough
My portfolio is 75% real estate, 15% T bills and 10% SPY. Am I diversified?
nothing is safe in a crash except cash. you buy BRKB after the dust settles. when BRKB recovers sooner than SPY, you sell BRKB and buy SPY. this is what every serious trader with no contractual obligation to stay invested does
Most useful comment in the thread, thanks. You’re right the SPX/SPY space is saturated and “cheaper” is a weak pitch — I’m not going to win as clone #13 or by undercutting an $80 API. The futures-proxy angle is interesting but I’ll be straight — I trade 0DTE SPX, not futures, so RTY/GC via IWM/GLD isn’t something I could speak to honestly or build well right now. Good idea, just not my lane(possibly a future addition to the app if requested). Your point about proving the edge is the one that landed. Right now I don’t have that track record, and levels alone are a commodity. That’s the gap I’d need to close before this is worth anyone’s money — not more features. Appreciate the straight talk.
It’s called consolidation. These key levels (\_00) tend to attract (and deflect) movement They are “psychological” levels of support and resistance but price also stays at those levels as sort of ‘safe havens’ Once it’s determined that price is leaving consolidation and those psychological key levels, volatility is going to pick up until it finds another “safe haven” It’s interesting that those psychological levels are so prominent, showing just how wrapped up in our emotions/psyche humans are There was never a -11% day open to close on SPY when it was around 500, though, so this data is BS
VariationSeparate had regards buying SPY 180p
Fair hits, Ill concede somethings because you are right. On naive vs real GEX: what I’ve built is OI-based gamma levels with a standard dealer-sign assumption — so yes, “naive” GEX by your definition, same category as the strike-plot levels the big providers show to everyone. I’m not claiming real-time dealer flow / HIRO-style positioning — that needs the OPRA firehose and whole-book modeling, which I know I can’t do cheaply or well, so I’m not pretending to. Where I’d push back: I’m not a dev cosplaying as a trader. I trade 0DTE SPX — iron flies, BWBs — and I already use gamma regimes and walls in my own process. This started as a tool for how I actually trade. So the honest offer isn’t “cheaper real-time GEX.” It’s clean, honest OI-based levels — walls, flip, regime — for 0DTE SPY/QQQ, priced for retail, with no pretense that it’s institutional flow data. If that’s useful to people, great. If OI-based levels are useless to you specifically, totally fair — different tool for a different trader.
**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $759.00 (below) | $765.72 | -0.9% | Aug 24, 9:29 PM |
0dte options: SPY or QQQ opens red losses 2 to 3% from open price (good movement for single trading session). Then at 11:30am eastern there hasn’t been a real bounce down 3% from open at that point. You come in get calls and bet on a complete V if it works 5 to 10x your money. The further there is no real bounce the less of a bounce you need let’s say it’s 1:30 eastern down 3% now you only need a 1 to 2% pull up for a nice juice gain. Complete gamble you call it wrong and you lose everything.
It’s super bearish every weekend and then green shreks Monday shut them up. Until next weekend. They’ve been at it since SPY was 380
Buffet missed the entire bull market. He’s not smart. Hes only relevant because he bought hundreds of 1000s of SPY shares in the 60s for the price of a strawberry.