SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$0.59 (0.13%) Today
52 Week High
52 Week Low
7 Days Mentions
A few days under exactly 1 year later, I have finally made back all of my Jan-Mar 2021 losses from a year ago when I just began using Robinhood. Reason for loss: GME greed, REGI earnings report fraud, and buying SPY puts during a record Jan-Feb rally. *huge sigh of relief*
So... you're right, but it's gonna go back and forth, and the rotation will be in different sectors and into bonds as well. In fact, it's already started. Certain dividend and consistent income sectors have already been seeing consistent gains even on market red days, like energy... though energy is more cyclical right now. But compare SPY to SPYD and their relative growth. SPY YTD is -2.72% awhile SPYD YTD is +0.45%. The effect is more protracted over the last month, with SPY +1.05% but SPYD is +8.33%. The DJIA is also bleeding, as is the Russell 2000, with IWM and IWN showing a similar divergence between value and growth, only both are down, but value bled far less YTD. So what you're seeing is not just a rotation to boomer stocks, but also a sector and value rotation, but keep in mind that when people buy yield during a risk-off situation, that builds a risk-on situation because safer income lends to risk reduction in portfolio theory. So as bond yields rise, rotation out of growth will be promoted. As they drop as they become more attractive and people buy them, the appetite for risk will increase while people use dividend stocks as safety against drawdown since they tend to survive crashes a little better (not always, but sometimes...). So basically, expect the market to thrash around constantly even as it grows a bit. Very high volatility this year, as evidenced by SPY switching from using the SMMA 50 on the yearly chart (daily candlesticks) for monthly support rather than the SMMA 20.
That's what I'm expecting. We bounce off the 200dma. I know people don't like to hear it, but I think we're in a DCB and we will trse those levels before moving towards ATH. Permanulls don't like to hear it, but I'd load the boat on SPY at the 440 level. For now my positions are mostly bearish.
I'm working towards building up 100 shares of SPY just so I can sell covered calls on it. VTI options have less liquidity, have 5 point-wide strikes, and trade in 5 cent increments. Not nearly as easily to trade options on.
Funny, I do this. I guess it’s just to have a little mid/low cap exposure. VTI and VOO though, not SPY. I guess it depends how well you think low cap will do. It’s a little redundant I guess, but I just don’t like how much low cap may drag things down over the next little while
STILL NO You guys really thought LOOOL It wasn't green today though *Nice* How about today, for example Lmao works 100% of the options on SPY just go see a bunch of people feel that it's overvalued but usually just don't think anybody here follows his dumbass plays man, I sure as shit got your pump Oh no Yeah yeah but it's usually not the one huffing copium lmao Where did you post this for, exactly? ~ regarding\_your\_cat ----- [^^Info](https://github.com/trambelus/UserSim) ^^| [^^Subreddit](/r/User_Simulator)
Great analysis, but doesn’t make sense. SPY is very dependent on Apple and Microsoft, the 2 biggest holdings. If Apple makes a run, it will bring SPY up. Apple received multiple price upgrades last week, but stock didn’t do much due to market sentiment towards tech. Upcoming week may be a different story with people buying Apple before earnings run.
200d is at ~365 for the Q's and ~440 for SPY Those will trigger violent bounces when they get tested, even if down is where we're going. If catalysts drive us down there, seeing as we haven't touched since COVID hit, I could see that slingshotting us to ATHs in a melt-up before gravity reasserts itself.
Generally I love SPY, I personally see a correction over 20%. If I am right I plan to dollar cost average into it. I am concerned about how heavily it is weighted in a few companies. LOTS of money/fund managers need to own those companies because they are constantly compared to SPY and other index's. It is to risky not to. That has been propping things up lately.
The problem with SPY lately is the uncertainty. If you bought puts on Thursday but held then thinking about SPY would retreat back to the 50dma, you got fucked on the recovery Friday afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday next week are going to be green af, so if you held then that's all she wrote for those puts.
Saving for our next house we probably wont be buying for another 5+ years, wondering what to do with the funds in the mean time. Doing my own DD in to CDs/Bonds/the Big Index Funds but curious if anyone had any insight I might miss. Already fairly invested in a lot of the more run of the mill stocks and funds (VGI/SPY/FANG/Tech Industry/Energy). Was maybe looking towards commodities or if I should go really conservative instead. Wife and I work full time and make low six figures after taxes. Thinking of starting a family as well toward the end of the year/start of next year. Currently it's just parked in our normal savings account which is a measly .01%. Already have 10k for an emergency fund which will stay there, just wonder where to go from here. Thanks!
Consider that some long term directional trends in the market take one year or longer to reveal themselves. We could be at the very beginning of a vicious bear market. Or it could be a imperceptible speed bump along the way to SPY 600. No way to know.
Inflation ticked up noticeably in April of last year, then ran hotter as the year went on. Inflation measured year over year may start to show noticeable improvement by August or Spetember. This is dependent on a number of factors, but that's my timeline for when the market will be ready for SPY $555 by EOY. In case I'm wrong I'll be buying Calls starting next week and trading into spreads whenever it's profitable.
Sounds about right, agree on most points. SPY, dividend and energy stocks will probably be fine hold value. But for tech and growth (besides megacap), the party is over. Anything with 30x sales and no profits is probably done and getting sold off by institutions to the bagholders. Don't think there will be a bounce for at least 6-9 months. Just a slow bleed like wish. For the immediate future we have the following developments: * Interest rate hikes. People say they're priced in but it's not like market will drop 10% in one day like you mention. It'll get priced in over the following months in a series of drops and dead cat bounces. * Ridiculous omicron numbers. Which will lead to more lockdown, supply chain issues, and uncertainty. * Inflationary pressures from lack of supply = higher prices. * Inflationary pressures from lack of labor = higher prices. People are striking. People are sick. People are retiring. People want higher wages. * The employment rate is already back to 3.9% . I believe all the people who want to work or can work are already working. This is a problem for the fed's dual mandate of max employment and stable prices. The employment is already at max. Inflation is rising and lowering people's purchasing power. Now they have to tighten things to get prices to fall. This is going to destroy growth stocks. Market is already pricing some companies to fail (like wish).
Looking at SPY on Tradingview... lol S&P had just finally gotten back to the 2000 ATHs in 2007 and then dumped again in that crisis. So yeah except for a few months at the height of 07 prior to the crash then it took until 2013 for SPY to get back to 2000 highs.
Companies like Wealthfront and Betterment have white papers where they explain their TLH methods and list the near equivalent ETFs they use. I am pretty sure that they have had their lawyers look carefully at this and aren't just relying on the IRS not noticing what they are doing. They avoid swapping between ETFs that have the same exact index, like VOO and SPY, with both track S&P's SP500 index. IRS has never issued a ruling that even this is a violation.
So, I zoomed out to the previous crashes in OP. SPY peaked around 150 in spring 2000, and fell to about 80 by fall of 2002. Ripping recovery to about 155 by summer of 2007, only to crash again below 80 in spring of 2009. If you bought the peak in 2000, you wouldn't be meaningfully in the green until 2014. If you bought the bottom in 2002, then obviously you did ok, but you were still basically even 7 years later. Say you bought at 115, half way between the peak and the bottom of the tech bubble crash, because hey, stocks are on sale. Between Nov 2001 (SPY 115) and Nov 2011 (SPY 125) you made a whopping 8.7% in 10 years, or less than 1% annually. Congratulations, you would have lost handily to Treasury Bonds which carry virtually no risk. Buying the dip is all good and well, but just because the market takes a 25% shit doesn't mean it can't still drop a hell of a lot more.
If it crashes, that’s when you *really* want to buy Assuming you are a long term investor Think about it like this. If SPY crashed and does not recover in the next 10-15 years, US will have lost its power and our money won’t mean anything anyway.
My god this. I had tons of 'we're going to rebound from covid' positions like WFC. Overall return and risk-adjusted return would have been much higher if I just bet on SPY/QQQ/DJIA. Was so stressed reading individual financials for companies completely not worth it.
I had a shit ton of 1/21 480c. I got greedy & sat on them. I could have made a lot of money. Instead, I'm sitting on a loss. I went back in on 1/28 475c. I knocked down the strike & bought an extra week. Plan is to sell this week at either 470 or 475. Depending how well SPY can hold up.
$10,000 compounded annually at 10% for 43 years = $602,400 $10,000 compounded annually at 15% for 43 years = $4,073,869 SPY is a good investment for those who want safe returns in the long run. Doing your own research on good companies might yield better results though.
Great context but very misleading. What do you mean by "It" Skyrockets? This concept is very motivational, and it does ring true, but not entirely. In the dot.com bubble burst, not all stocks dropped. Out of all of the ones that did plummet, not all of them skyrocketed. Some never recovered, some moved up slowly over time. Many stocks and ETFs have already been in a bear market. Look at Ark invest for example. If by "It" you mean the S&P 500, then realize that many of the group in here are not all in on VOO and SPY. You are right, we shouldn't be motivated by fear, but we must also use common sense to sell, even for a loss if that cash will allow you to gain somewhere else. Walmart stock didn't record for over 10 years. If you held it you would have missed out on massive gains.
My main point in my comment is that just few companies own the majority of the spy market Cap and can control its movement, 20 companies has almost 50% of its value, so if those companies are super successful and will hold the spy steady, is it really over all market indicator? If Apple will report unbelievable earnings and push the spy higher it’s mean that the market is overvalued? Many Investors are comfortable to buy the dip on oversold stocks that drop over -80% but worried from indices pressure as people believe it need to drop SPY companies: 500 SPY Cap: 42 Trillions Top 5 companies :10T Cap TOP 20 Companies: 18T Cap
If you look at JNK, SPY's macd, and holdings of the bigger meme players (Citadel, Wolverine, Simplex), you can see the meme / high flyers momentum peaked closer to April of last year and has been softening since. I expect most to continue an overall downtrend until after the 1st rate hike at least. So yeah April or May might begin another meme season. (especially if short interest rises and the market suffers.)
Like most other people my biggest mistakes aren’t that interesting, just selling stocks too early or thinking I could time the market. Sold a bunch of Apple stock in 2016 because I was young and dumb and wanted to buy cool shit. I could buy so much more shit now! Sold TSLA in 2020 because I got tired of the volatility. Ouch… Sold AMD in 2018 because I was convinced that a certain sub which shall not be named was just hyping up a shitty stock for no good reason. Bought puts on SPY in 2016 instead of buying shares since I was convinced it would crash. Basically the opportunity costs have been pretty large.
I expect a LOT of repositioning going into FOMC on the 24th and 25th. One "twitter analyst" is calling for a reverse head and shoulders on FB. Def keeping an eye on that and tech in general for a lil rebound. Ranges should tighten going into FOMC. SPY has already begun this process and should kang around $465. $472ish for breakout, $458ish for breakdown.
My honest opinion is that you should avoid listening to all media and news outlets, wsb subs, fox, cnn, all of it. I'm sure these are just your bags but I found that purchasing good companies at low prices serves you best. Avoid the talking heads....if Cramer is screaming BUY its probably topping out for the current trend. Also, I have tried to study and understand financial data about a company just so that when I read a print that I know what it means. I am by no means a financial analysis type of trader but it does factor in (mostly for long term positions). I'm more of a technical trader as of recent and I find this gives me the best entry points when swing trading equities. I have huge options losses and shares losses but I also have some big winners. I find it much easier to lose money faster In a losing trade than gainers can run in a winning trade. Therefore you have to take profits when the indicators are screaming at you and take a small loss if it does not go your way. Risk Vs. Reward is the game..... Also: determine what kind of trader you are and what works for you. Open several different brokerage accts so you can trade when you want to. Stay away from meme stocks. Look into these guys... SPY QQQ TQQQ SPXL - This is where you should be putting your money. Don't buy at the top.
This. Throw 1.5M into SPY, set aside 400k for a rainy day fund or fun money, and literally never work again unless we enter societal or economic collapse which means you have bigger problems to deal with anyways. The lifetime compound annual return on the S&P is 9.96%, 10 year is even better at 15.6%. With 1.5M that's the equivalent of a salary of 150k - 234k for literally doing nothing. More with little management like buying in at dips and withdrawing more during good years. If someone in that position can't make that work and be happy, then they need to move to a less expensive area or make some better spending decisions. At that point, there's just no point in working unless you enjoy your job and have no hobbies.
By harsh I mean a sudden pullback in overvalued companies. And yes, I know that they're overvalued. But this doesn't change the fact that market euphoria brought those stocks there and since the recent fed meetings this euphoria very clearly changed into uncertainty, leading stocks to fall up to 50% in a matter of weeks. Sure the SPY is close to ATH, that's also where most of my money's at and why I'm not concerned, rather curious.
We've been in meme and wsb stonk bear market since June 2021. Overall market looks ok but it's not pretty if you look under the hood. ARKK should be used as an index for meme market instead of SPY, QQQ, or DIA lol.
Those two things are not comparable. SPY is an ETF that tracks an index and BRK is a fund that has an actual investment thesis with a risk strategy to go with it. BRK is not designed to compete with SPY. It’s great that your presumably small (relative) account can beat the likes of BRK but if you had millions of dollars to invest, would your trust it in an index or would you maybe pick something that actually has a strategy designed to both protect your initial investment and grow it sustainably?
Totally agree with your thesis . What I was saying the herd mentality that fossil fuels where dead was manufactured by idiots who thought that shift out of fossil fuels was immediate and they where going away! Your thesis of an adoption process of 20 to 30 years is a little longer than I think but not by much. My point was anyone who bought the fossils in that time period did well being contrarian to the no fossil fuel theory and that play is far from dead. Look a two year chart of XOM . When was the bottom ??? The end of October 2020 ,two weeks before the election at around $32 . It was the easiest play I had ever seen and I participated. The folks that bought into EV ,s in the same time period bought the top. And now the flight to safety and higher interest rates are going to keep those stocks going for a while. EV stocks might suffer during this inflationary period and that could create a buying opportunity but the best of breed like TSLA will Thrive they may pause or dip but will rebound. I have been adding to my position slowly on dips ,I like F not a true EV yet but can scale up very quickly. VWAGY is so undervalued it is ridiculous . What has worked for many people ,like buying SPY weekly calls and rinsing and repeating will not until inflation is put under control and that is a 2 year process IMHO. You see that is already happening . It is going to become a stock pickers market moving forward and real earnings and some degree of legitimacy is going to take hold and holding stocks with big safe dividends is part of it. And until inflation is put under control those stocks I mentioned go higher and you get paid nice dividends to watch them go higher and if they dont get inflation under control they will go higher rapidly. Someone that entered the market 2 years ago and got on the SPY call bandwagon has made a ton of money and many are a one trick pony. They will give it back quickly if they are. We shall see.
A lot of the answer depends on how old you are. Since you say you are new to investing and have a small portfolio, I'm assuming you are young. This means you have time on your side. The advice here is really easy, start now and contribute something to your investment accounts every month. Instead of trying to pick the Wall Street bets stocks like AMC and the others, pick well known, stable companies in a variety of different sectors and you will do very well. I'm talking Johnson & Johnson, McDonald's, Chevron, JP Morgan, and the like. All these companies pay a great dividend and their share price generally increases over time, so you get a double whammy, in a good way... SPY has returned an average of 14.5% per year for the last 10 years (with about 1.42% of that being from dividends), so that might also be a core holding for you. You could also invest in a portfolio of high quality, dividend paying ETFs, instead of buying individual companies. Again, you are young, so you have time on your side. If you are in your mid-twenties now and consistently invest, you'll be a millionaire by the time you are in your 50s.