SPY

shower_optional

vm analyze the option chain these tickers for me. be thorough. DELL HD AMD GME SPY

poopieuser909

vm what the general sentiment of this sub for tomorrows $SPY performance

BaxterrStockman

So wtf do I do then? Shit’s been bullish af the past few days and these dips are getting eaten up left and right. There seems to be a powerful up move in BTC occurring right now as well. There has to be another explosive move in SPY brewing. Can you explain what ‘heavy short gamma’ means?

GoldenAries4

I think algos saw a rumor that the Iranians received signs that the U.S. would end the blockade. That’s the only explanation I’ve found so far. Of course this isn’t confirmed anywhere. Either way that stupid move put us in a place where SPY is going to have to break a lot more resistance now.

rubsdikonxpensivshit

VM am I going to do well on my SPY calls tomorrow?

BaxterrStockman

Well played, VM. Well played. I actually have SPY $718 calls that expire tomorrow. What do you think is going to happen to those? Don’t sugarcoat it VM, give it to me straight..

Potential-Plum7187

Pumping hard. Looks like my spy calls are printing after all. SPY 715 today is my guess.

yewnique

Why can’t you speculate? Based on the posts tonight, what is the likely holdings, are they probably bearish or bullish on SPY/Oil etc?

Sbmagnolia

VM, what are the chances of SPY closing below $705 tomorrow?

Majestic-Bass6772

VM which will happen first? A Mets win or SPY hitting 1000?

rugbyliebe

VM thing is: futures are actually green (SPY up 0,40% as of now)

rugbyliebe

VM are the futures (i.e. SPY) really blood red?

Beeboobumfluffy

VM I've been buying on SPY on Mondays and selling on Wednesdays. How have I been doing so far this year?

hallett21

VM based upon SPY over the last 10 years. How many weeks can we expect it to rise since it just recently hit a new all time high?

SeaweedLeft9746

VM, assume the role of a statistics expert and formulate a hypothesis that predicts the closing price of SPY tomorrow 

HalaMadridPapaFlo

VM will SPY reach 900 by June end as predicted by Mr. Tom Lee?

kingofjingling

How cooked are SPY Puts tomorrow VM?

Grand_Click_6723

VM what’s the action flow looking like on SPY and QQQ tomorrow? You think they will be bearish or bullish? 

SniXSniPe

Obviously SPY

sanmar2225

The true cost of SPY700

SouthNice7324

I managed to exit and am pretty happy about it. Knowing my luck SPY will gap down

kingofjingling

What is this VM stuff? Why is this happening VM? Are we in market purgatory for SPY VM?

Shoganai_Hito

I bought $10K worth of SPY $710calls expiring tomorrow right before market close. AMA

Happy-n-Healthy

VM I'm worried about the $20,000 in SPY puts I have.

Tommyd023

I will thanks. Im trying to avoid a washsale on SPY but in two more weeks I will

vermilli21

How cooked am I VM? Bought 720c 5/1 for SPY at today's low while my weekly puts were bought at today's high 707p 4/24

Rude_Assistance_4386

I saw that first(?) comment you made asking it about SPY Good stuff, shit talking aside it seems genuinely useful, thanks for setting it up

vermilli21

Pretty sure last time VM was in this thread, SPY was red the next day

-IQ200

What are the odds SPY ends red tomorrow?

AekorOne

like two minutes after you posted your comment SPY dropped to 702, he would've been up pretty nicely

Actual_Difference617

Volume has been low since SPY powered up from 630 to 710 in couple of weeks

edave22

VM will SPY open over $710 tomorrow

Staticks

Posts like this are how we know the top is in. Time to buy SPY puts.

Actual_Difference617

Why was the volume so thin from last two weeks on SPY?

ThanksDependent1001

VM, are we buying calls or puts on SPY tomorrow. How high to we pump and dump?

gamblinregard

VM, the MAGS ETF only briefly went above the trendline at around $66 and is now below it. How cooked is the SPY if the Mag 7 can't deliver, and does it justify ber feelings?

ImthatRootuser

VM what do you think about the SPY chart?

FatFluffyFish

VM, is my 702,704,709,711 iron condor for SPY cooked

thinq-81

Call versus put volume can hint at market sentiment, but it is not the full story because it can also reflect hedging or complex strategies. Watching price movement alongside volume usually gives more context. If you want to trace how big events impact SPY and other assets before positioning these trades, Market Ontology is solid for following those connections and seeing how shocks ripple through different markets.

Av8Surf

What is this VOO you speak of? Do you trust it? STRC pays 11.5 percent dividend tax free. War is great time to buy SPY. Look back and see.

Liplok

VM 0DTE calls or puts tomorrow on SPY?

SnooBeans7794

VM 715 4/24 SPY Calls a idea (make me feel better)

dljmonkeyboiz

VM what are your thoughts on a double diagonal on SPY?

MrNo_Balls

look at the contract charts... the contracts for 7080p is one of those that turned 32 dollars into 2400 dollars. looking at the 708c SPY contract it never reached anything over 700 dollars worth even if we look back a few days when it still held extrinsic value besides the intrinsic.

Actual_Difference617

They are definitely too high. SPY should be $8.

OneFourtyFivePilot

I’m not following the first part of your comment. But I moved into: SPY (followed by SPYM=lower cost). QQQ followed by QQQM (same as above: lower cost) Moved in SMH this last year to take advantage of AI but from a different angle.

zjz

vm what's the options chain for SPY look like. what do we gamble on tomorrow

zjz

vm what's the options chain for SPY look like

zjz

vm what's the options chain for SPY look like

MrNo_Balls

well the underlying moved over 100 dollars I can see something like that but SPY does not move that much

VeryStableGenius

> If the stock market goes down those stocks held by the ETF lose value and the ETF loses value. Counterargument: it should go down less than the market as a whole, because on the way down they're selling those worthless calls for real cash. So it's not worse than holding SPY on the way down, just worse going back up. Then when overall market P/E is good, you can swap your CC-ETF for a regular ETF. The trick is guessing where 'down' ends and 'up' begins. But you could have a general rule to hold SPY when PE is low-ish, and CC-ETFs when PE is high-ish and stocks don't look like such a bargain. There are some Eaton-Vance ones that are 'tax advantaged' - the returns are mostly untaxed return of capital, so they drive the basis to zero. Only when the basis is zero do you start to pay long term gains tax on the dividends. I have some with a cost basis that is almost zero, meaning I got all my initial investment back without paying tax. Of course, the regular market probably went up more.

Yellow_Snow_Globe

I pick spy over SPX for the lower price point, and SPY over XSP for the higher liquidity

Rugpull_Generator

Mad ass bears downvoting everything thinking that will bring down SPY tmr lmao

GammaReaper_

SPX is the most liquid exchange traded contract in the world. OI for atm p/c on SPY = 6k contacts. ATM SPX =2k. But SPX value = 10x SPY so at this one strike, SPX OI is > 3x SPY OI.

WordsHappenedHere

SPY $800 by July. Sorry bears.

Copious-GTea

Dont put in 20k into the market all at once. Buy around 1k in SPY ETF every week for the next 20 weeks. (Or like 2 shares per week right now for 1.4k or something) You will capture the average price of SPY index over the next 20 weeks through all ups and downs. (Dollar Cost Averaging Strategy) In 20 weeks re evaluate how much money you want to drive into the market from your savings and over how long a period you want to drive it in. I got a degree in finance with a focus on financial services during the 2008 recession and every finance teacher preached DCA into indexes as a fool proof strategy because we'd all just gotten burned by a recession.

Enoch-Of-Nod

GRPN for the memes. It's probably about to pop SPY if you just want a win.

opo113

Imagine needing politicians to tell you to sell VZ, a company which has consistently underperformed every broad index ETF known to man for decades Literally just buy SPY: - consistently outperforms VZ - infinitely less concentration risk - lower taxes due to lower dividends

Weak_Ostrich459

There was probably a massive sell wall at $420 on SPY for some reason...

SherbertOk2563

Upvote if you are excited for 760 SPY

Ok-Perspective-1624

Up 22% all time that is considerably worse than SPY lmao

OkResponsibility2470

8am tomorrow: 🥭: Iran wants to talk! SPY+2%

Rugpull_Generator

Bitch ass bears: "Hormuz is still closed" Their bitch ass SPY puts expiring tomorrow = Still fucked

No-Improvement3164

Which one of you is holding 135k OI on the SPY 600p for Septembear 9/18

Fhyzikz

Indefinite ceasefire could actually be bearish depending on details. No end to the conflict increases uncertainty and must be priced in. Today's volume on SPY was double what it's been lately and it was a red day..

brondoplantscraveit

Kind of reminds me of the meme stock AMC Gamestore days and that’s when SPY went from like 350 to 550.

flowersinmyvase

My advice as someone’s wife is to use 20k of your own money first. Don’t take your wife’s money to play with investing if you don’t know what you’re doing. If you share all of your money, and there truly is no boundary between yours and hers, then you absolutely must get her input before you invest. Aside from that, put it all in VOO or SPY. Some kind of S&P index fund. I’m a risk taker though — and in real life id do individual stocks, like AMZN or GOOG.

jovi_1986

!banbet SPY $712 24HR

Numerous-Stand-1841

Breaking: on a surprising turn of events, JD Vance got butt naked during the negotiations and started humping the couch. Iran was both utterly dumbfounded and impressed. They signed a 100 year peace deal with Israel and also got blowjobs from Ericka Kirk. SPY up 69%

Micheal_Hancho

If reddit brought back custom emojis then SPY would easily go to 800. Just saying.

ayashifx55

how did you break even if SPY is over 700 ? shoulnt you be +100% ?

Odd-Collection2085

!banbet SPY 697 1d

LengthObjective2253

LA Noire is understated also SPY 730 4/24

GlumTopic2026

Just keep buying stocks and calls on SPY. Market will continue to go up indefinitely. Don’t miss out.

floo82

It's the only thing that moves this market. If he said SPY was going to 720 tomorrow, it would.

VeryMercurial

The craziest part about these last couple days is we haven’t even tested SPY 700 yet 😂😭

_ThisDickAintFree_

!banbet SPY $550 by 9/11.

burtburtburtcg

!banbet SPY $650 4 weeks

epicguest321

Incorrect. SPY tracks SPX at 1/10th the size. There is not a greater swing potential in SPY than SPX.

SwindlerSam

Who cares, just buy SPY, shit is ripping this month and will continue to rip. If a global pandemic couldn’t kill spy for several years, this is nothing.

Sengle473

!banbet SPY 711 1d

zocoi

I think the blockage will last for another month, SPY hasn't priced it in, SPY is optimistic that the war is over soon, what's your position for that case?

DiamondG331

It is true lol..but yeah I only trade credit spreads and this is a far safer way to trade than futures. It seems like today might be the first night session so who knows how many contracts will be traded and what the spread is. By the end of the year SPY IWM QQQ DIA. Will be 24 hours too hopefully. And by next year, 24/7 365

Outside_Shopping6861

The (only) account that I have is down 32.2% YTD because I found out about SPY 0DTE

Impressive-Bottle229

>What I don't like is that the fees for SPY are about 22% of my profit, and that there's potential for assignment if the short leg goes ITM. How is this even possible.

Star_Lord924

Please. Please let SPY open around 710/711 tomorrow. And then go fucking higher to 715

xiaodown

oh and here's just $SPY (no emojis version, sorry for the repost): Lump Sum By Start Year: Year Count Median Average Min Max ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000 238783 $154,898 $155,923 $145,040 $175,316 2001 237644 $185,173 $185,052 $160,530 $225,306 2002 237836 $221,785 $220,368 $185,173 $276,703 2003 237686 $216,153 $222,024 $190,102 $266,846 2004 239401 $185,877 $185,354 $171,091 $196,438 2005 238382 $171,091 $170,563 $160,530 $181,653 2006 238674 $156,306 $154,616 $140,112 $165,459 2007 238269 $134,479 $134,634 $126,030 $145,745 2008 237336 $151,377 $164,443 $135,887 $256,989 2009 237616 $203,479 $203,637 $166,163 $282,336 2010 237670 $164,051 $163,538 $145,745 $181,653 2011 237704 $142,224 $144,133 $134,479 $164,755 2012 238601 $128,847 $129,557 $121,102 $141,520 2013 237497 $106,316 $106,646 $93,643 $121,102 2014 237821 $88,010 $88,791 $80,969 $99,275 2015 237935 $80,969 $81,430 $78,857 $89,418 2016 238508 $78,153 $78,696 $71,816 $90,826 2017 238194 $66,184 $65,855 $59,143 $71,816 2018 237654 $57,735 $57,633 $53,510 $66,888 2019 237291 $52,806 $53,321 $47,173 $64,071 2020 239498 $46,469 $47,697 $40,133 $68,296 ============================================================ So yeah, just in general, you can see the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, but i mean, even then, you're still massively up.

xiaodown

Here @OP, I did it for you. This is investing $20,000 as a lump sum, 5,000,000 simulations, picking an ETF out of the given list, picking a date for which data exists (generally, from the start of the fund up until 2020), and investing the whole thing on the next trading day. Then the results are averaged for each year. Prices are accurate as of yesterday's close. (**note:** repost, and i'm removing the little emojis that my stock backtester script spits out because the bot doesn't like them) (lumpdca) xiaodown@lab:~/code/lumpdca$ python simulate.py 5000000 20000 --tickers \ SPY,QQQ,IWM,VTI,EFA,VEA --lump-only --yearly Investment Strategy Simulation Running 5,000,000 simulations with $20,000 investment Using 16 processes on 16 available cores ============================================================ [████████████████████████████████████████] 5,000,000/5,000,000 (100.0%) EFA from 2011-07-01: LUMP value $51,425 IWM from 2006-03-10: LUMP value $99,098 QQQ from 2000-09-23: LUMP value $168,170 SPY from 2006-11-01: LUMP value $147,153 VTI from 2019-08-10: LUMP value $52,176 SPY from 2014-10-05: LUMP value $86,602 VEA from 2020-08-17: LUMP value $38,454 SPY from 2013-12-18: LUMP value $95,755 ============================================================ SIMULATION SUMMARY ============================================================ Total Simulations: 5,000,000 Starting Capital: $20,000 Time Elapsed: 7.26 seconds Ticker Filter: SPY, QQQ, IWM, VTI, EFA, VEA Mode: Lump Sum Only Returns Analysis: Strategy Median Average Min Max ------------------------------------------------------------ Lump Sum $85,098 $123,298 $29,098 $760,309 Best Lump Sum: QQQ $760,309 (from 2002-10-09) Worst Lump Sum: IWM $29,098 (from 2020-12-24) Lump Sum By Start Year: Year Count Median Average Min Max ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000 119208 $159,826 $162,953 $129,510 $285,438 2001 201827 $186,581 $200,347 $91,365 $541,237 2002 201538 $204,530 $254,106 $93,398 $760,309 2003 202085 $208,704 $246,108 $82,828 $641,108 2004 202670 $184,469 $198,549 $69,617 $469,717 2005 202302 $166,867 $182,504 $59,454 $434,923 2006 202378 $149,265 $165,042 $48,579 $420,748 2007 261626 $90,588 $120,699 $41,465 $355,670 2008 262790 $108,706 $146,935 $44,311 $583,763 2009 261679 $147,686 $175,261 $57,726 $579,253 2010 262606 $107,333 $137,207 $54,169 $347,938 2011 261781 $93,333 $119,791 $49,900 $292,526 2012 263127 $84,000 $109,512 $52,543 $255,799 2013 261088 $69,451 $91,014 $43,294 $216,495 2014 261798 $57,098 $75,756 $40,957 $168,170 2015 261902 $54,353 $70,230 $41,059 $141,753 2016 262398 $57,098 $70,069 $44,471 $143,686 2017 260976 $46,321 $57,508 $36,485 $114,046 2018 261759 $43,066 $50,524 $34,351 $93,428 2019 261866 $42,000 $48,390 $34,859 $89,562 2020 262596 $43,066 $44,110 $29,098 $78,608 Note: Large outliers detected. Median may be more representative than average. ============================================================ The point is, some years are better than others, but it all comes out in the wash, and time in the market generally beats timing the market.

floo82

It doesn't. There is massive shorting of paper oil going on. The cash from the shorts is dumped straight into the indexes instantly as they are opened. If oil breaks out higher anyways, the massive deleveraging and forced selling will take us straight back to SPY 650. The entire SPX index has been reduced to a simple short oil ETF. It only moves inverse of oil. https://preview.redd.it/14x0rjfjxmwg1.jpeg?width=1277&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fbe7bb3d55f59385a9bc737149e4dd2343d2b042

m0nk_3y_gw

> I think the only downside to XSP is lower liquidity you are correct. and also the fees, if you are going to trade 25 contracts too. SPX has much better liquidity, and you only need to trade 2 contracts for the same move (less contracts/fees). SPX is better for taxes (taxed as 60% long-term / 40% short-term gains, 0dte SPY is taxed as 100% short-term gains) I've been developing an algo that sells SPX call and put spreads that was doing great Dec through February/March. April sucked - too many war tweet driven swings. For this type of market regime I've had more success lately by adapting it to also do long entries. i.e. it isn't hard to make $200/day by waiting 20-40 minutes after market open, determine the trend for the day, buy an ATM call or put, and ride it. Today it bought 7125p and sold it an hour later for $750 profit. Would have been 5k+ more if it held it throughout the day

ayashifx55

So technically it’s only going up and up right? If we get calls months from now for SPY, it’s guaranteed to win?

xiaodown

oh and here's just $SPY: 📅 Lump Sum By Start Year: Year Count Median Average Min Max ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000 238783 $154,898 $155,923 $145,040 $175,316 2001 237644 $185,173 $185,052 $160,530 $225,306 2002 237836 $221,785 $220,368 $185,173 $276,703 2003 237686 $216,153 $222,024 $190,102 $266,846 2004 239401 $185,877 $185,354 $171,091 $196,438 2005 238382 $171,091 $170,563 $160,530 $181,653 2006 238674 $156,306 $154,616 $140,112 $165,459 2007 238269 $134,479 $134,634 $126,030 $145,745 2008 237336 $151,377 $164,443 $135,887 $256,989 2009 237616 $203,479 $203,637 $166,163 $282,336 2010 237670 $164,051 $163,538 $145,745 $181,653 2011 237704 $142,224 $144,133 $134,479 $164,755 2012 238601 $128,847 $129,557 $121,102 $141,520 2013 237497 $106,316 $106,646 $93,643 $121,102 2014 237821 $88,010 $88,791 $80,969 $99,275 2015 237935 $80,969 $81,430 $78,857 $89,418 2016 238508 $78,153 $78,696 $71,816 $90,826 2017 238194 $66,184 $65,855 $59,143 $71,816 2018 237654 $57,735 $57,633 $53,510 $66,888 2019 237291 $52,806 $53,321 $47,173 $64,071 2020 239498 $46,469 $47,697 $40,133 $68,296 ============================================================ So yeah, just in general, you can see the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, but i mean, even then, you're still massively up.

Bravadette

I just want SPY 720

Beneficial_Ad9547

!banbet SPY 698 2D

Ok_Persimmon9849

Tomorrow they sell off the SPY to buy into oil

spellbadgrammargood

Jesus SPY back to 707... soo fucking glad I slapped myself into selling my 707p...

PaperHandsTheDip

You are very correct. The issue is that you're looking at averages. At any given point in time it can be better / worse to invest depending on macro environment. Right now risks are elevated due to the war. The risk was priced in a few weeks ago (down to SPY \~$630), but since both sides have shown willingness for peace markets rallied back. If the peace falls apart (if you want to call it that) markets may see more turmoil.

Ok-Chocolate-5084

That 0dte win is lucky timing! Form 4 data shows SPY insiders have been selling steadily since mid-November (avg $2.3M/week dumps), which is the opposite signal your call just rode. Retail's actually been hedging downside here while business media stays bullish on the rally, so you caught the gap closing temporarily. Nice timing my dude.

cannythecat

Remember when everybody was yelling that the economy would collapse post tariff pause, that we just had to wait for it to show up in earnings later in the year. The strait don't matter anymore I'm tired of listening to the bears. SPY 850 end of year.

floo82

Because it sure as fuck doesn't have any real amount of "space" stocks in it lol. 50% of SPY is just 10 companies, and 8% of it is just NVDA