SPY

S-Club-Party

Anyone who knows the slightest -anything- realizes SPY going to 500 doesn’t fix that

Prestigious_Suit_202

SPY 630?

Maximum-Side-9391

Vcx will probably close higher than SPY today

Specialist_Spite5930

Puts on SPY is the way

Ernest_EA

This guy could’ve kept his mouth shut and SPY $700

Potential-Plum7187

Trump tweet later which will send SPY flying, don’t worry my fellow bulls

dontslambro

If markets open at this price we are down Last 20 trading days -6% on SPY -5.5% QQQ -5.7% IWM -6.5% DJI

Cabbage854

The Americans are asleep dreaming of SPY 670 right now

TJMBeav

Yo SPY. Going down is cool and shit, but could you keep yourself above 645 for another 36 hours. Thanks. And the best to the Fam

Roxorek

If strait is still closed 4 weeks from now i expect SPY to be 10% lower at least

JMWTurnerAppreciator

What specifically is batshit about it? It’s definitely overstated, but the three factors they laid out are definitely real and huge deals. The oil shock we’re currently undergoing are larger than the two in the 70’s combined. LLMs will not be profitable for years. Private credit is having major issues and is completely opaque. Those are all just facts. That doesn’t mean the DOW is gonna go to zero, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if we were walking into a recession or major correction, SPY is only like 50 points from its ATH, there’s still plenty of room for it to drop, especially if liquidity becomes an issue.

Prestigious_Suit_202

SPY is like Mustafa in Austin Powers, played by Will Ferrell

Smok3dSalmon

As a perma bear, I read shit like this and I still get frustrated. I've been right for 5 years now, but you've been righter. :P When you adjust for inflation, the charts look reasonable. SPY 5yr has gained \~32% without adjusting for inflation, it's \~67%. Here I am... just being a gay bear. >.>

SouthKen2020

You’re not hoping SPY craters. You’re buying the puts to offset losses in case a ground invasion tanks the market.

Beginning_Fly5818

Even I followed Motley fool advice in 2021 and lost lot of money, close to 120k. I did not recover my money fully. But I invested reat of my savings in SPY a week affer liberation day and revovered 20k. I sold all my SPY now. I hope you did not fall for Motley fool pump and dump scam.

No_Plastic_7533

Trading SPY or crude off public geopolitics isnt insider trading, its just gambling with a news feed. Insider is material nonpublic info from a duty breach, not vibes about Iran headlines.

Sensitive_Pilot3689

#Jail All Bers! They are UNAMERICAN and hurting the GREAT AMERICAN SP500. Without Bers we would be at SPY99999999

Upstairs-Bowl6755

Trading SPY or crude oil can never be insider trading. You are very ignorant of what insider trading laws actually involve.

TJMBeav

June 18 $SPY 700 puts Long, Mar 27 $SPY 645 puts

qx2

my SPY 650p expired worthless today 🥲

LostMyMag

Every time the SPY dips below 650 a random tweet will pop up to pump the market 2%

sami_regard

I can support that. -11% SPY instantaneous halt for the day.

burtburtburtcg

Sorry Bol: SPY 640 by open

WarmCan3034

I just want SPY to be at 400 😡 is that too much to ask

jazzgrackle

If you time it right you can get a 7 point + run on SPY.

raisedeyebrow4891

I have $100k in SPY LEAP calls at 685 saying you are wrong

Philthatman

SPY to 700 next week. I promise

Blixten_rs

!banbet SPY 666 1d

Philthatman

Dont worry guys, ill manipulate the market for you, SPY 599 by open ✌️ thank me later

BugStock

!banbet SPY 700 5d

StonksInvesteur

!banbet SPY 700 3d

FuckleUp

SPY $5 swings ⬆️ ⬇️ AH 😂

gentlesandwich

Is SPY actually just repeating the same pattern as last year?

Basis_404_

It seems like just yesterday the bulls were calling for SPY 700 and new ATHs and now they are telling bears to get wrecked why SPY ticks up 0.25%

Evening_Control6034

These 2 options give 2x50 100 delta. So its almost like buying 100 shares for 10K instead of 38 K. If MSFT reaches 450 in next few months these calls give same return as holding 100 shares (5-6 K) but for just 25% of the price. So the idea is buy leaps now and save the 28 K. If MSFT or SPY drops a lot use that 28 K to buy shares or options.

weewoowewoooo

SPY going parabolic lmfaooooo

DFW_BjornFree

!banbet $SPY 630 2.5 weeks

Ok-Indication-3754

Dang SPY pumping

southpark2135

!banbet SPY 660 1d

Ihovebacon

I use thinkorswim desktop to trade SPY 0DTE with no issue. I did not experience a downtime today.

skymagic

If she goes down every night she’s not your girl, she’s SPY 🙌

Soy_tu_papi_

I remember when SPY hit 700 for like 2 minutes. Good times

d33p7r0ubl3

SPY hasn’t had that kind of drop tonight

Striking_Box_6116

Saw a comment earlier on how SPY had a couple big 3-5% drops after hours. What are the odds it was someone dumping a huge position in the (relatively) illiquid after market hours cuz they got a phone call about shit hitting the fan overnight

TheOriginalBushToad

One more Breaking Epstein release and this insane POTUS is gonna drop a nuke on a Planned Parenthood in L.A.... SPY 500 eoy.

Philthatman

Launch? Launch what, i need SPY down to 651 to get my lunch

xiaodown

u/postmanmalone123 if you want some historical evidence, I ran a quick, non-scientific stock simulation using historical data and your hypothetical $70,000. My little simulator was configured with 50 tickers, including a few ETFs and a bunch of very large companies on the major US indexes. I ran 1,000,000 simulations where the process was: * Pick a stock from the list * Pick a date between the earliest date that my python library has data for that stock and 2020 * Invest the whole thing as a lump sum: Subtract $20 for a trading fee, then buy the maximum number of whole shares possible of that stock on the next available trading day. * Invest the whole thing using Dollar-Cost Averaging: Pick a random choice between 2, 5, and 10 years, then on the first trading day of each month, buy an equal dollar amount worth of whole shares, such that you spend roughly the same amount each month over the course of your 2/5/10 year DCA period, minus a $20 transaction fee at each purchase. * See what the investment would be worth today. Given your $70,000, over one million simulations, here are the results: ================== SIMULATION SUMMARY ================== Total Simulations: 1,000,000 Starting Capital: $70,000 Time Elapsed: 3292.18 seconds Lump Sum Wins: 834,658 (83.5%) DCA Wins: 165,342 (16.5%) Returns Analysis: Strategy Median Average Min Max ------------------------------------------------------------ Lump Sum $440,065 $1,658,491 $27,814 $124,332,177 DCA $345,179 $1,001,925 $28,980 $67,400,783 Note that the median is much more relevant, as the average is greatly skewed by the fact that you should go back in time and buy Cisco in October of 1990. Just for kicks, I did a simulation of only ETFs as well. Only 100,000 iterations, but using 14 ETFs from SPY to some of the MSCI country ETFs, emerging markets, midcap, etc. ================= SIMULATION SUMMARY ================= Total Simulations: 100,000 Starting Capital: $70,000 Time Elapsed: 301.08 seconds Lump Sum Wins: 80,494 (80.5%) DCA Wins: 19,506 (19.5%) Returns Analysis: Strategy Median Average Min Max ------------------------------------------------------------ Lump Sum $214,507 $333,490 $87,336 $2,430,636 DCA $180,779 $275,668 $87,633 $1,695,861 There's no guarantees, but in better than 80% of all cases, just dumping your money into the market is a better strategy than dollar-cost averaging. Time in the market beats timing the market. (there are some caveats about my simulator, as I said it's not very scientific, but I [made a reddit blog post thing here](https://www.reddit.com/user/xiaodown/comments/1muh5vk/dollarcost_averaging_vs_lump_sum_simulation/) if interested)

TheOriginalBushToad

Sitting on about $10K of SPY puts and CVX calls. Feeling pretty good about tomorrow....

Silver-Orchid-1339

https://preview.redd.it/jccdx2ouvarg1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=c69013d330e02f15cb823d2ca6236832a7ce37b2 What do you think SPY moves look like today?

iRunWithSkissors

10% cash & 90% in SPY

Philthatman

Im done lying about what I want, i need SPY down bigly so my puts can print

EthanielRain

>SPY 540 4/17 I see you're an optimist... SPY 528 4/24, yolo life savings

LikeWhite0nRice

I've been almost all cash and short SPY since early Feb. It's worked out great so far. I'm ready to jump back in if needed, but there's also a good chance that this pullback gets much worse.

tdogger88

If the market was pricing in a signed treaty, SPY would be at 7,000, the market is getting cheap af relative to growth. It’s in a wait and see approach with a lot of potential risk that’s priced in and keeping it subdued and volatile.

rupert1920

Interesting... Where are you hearing these? Because risk/return on credit spreads usually trade close to their deltas, so a 30 delta short leg you would be getting around 30% of the width of the spread. It would be less for index options because of put skew, so it's unusual to get 1:2 at 20 delta. You can certainly get lose to 1:2 for a 30 delta short call vertical on SPY though.

Axolotis

I was 80% cash. Not anymore though. Once SPY drops under the 200MA on the daily it’s a no brainer to start buying.

AphexPin

If SPY closes at $655 on Friday I turned $300 into $5k

Timely-Designer-2372

I often read or hear about opportunities where you can sell a put spread with 1:2 or 1:3 win/loss-ratio at delta 20 (SPY). I find such ratios (1:3) at delta 35 atm. For Delta 20 I get below 1:6 ratio... (51 DTE)

WithMyxomatosis

You’re not understanding the math. A net zero position gets adjusted as the stock increases in value. The SPY for instance is market cap weighted, if PLTR explodes and suddenly constitutes 10% of the index, and you properly initiated your short, you have entirely offset your short positions loss with the long position gain, since PLTR pushed SPY way up.  The infinite risk you describe is for naked shorts, this isn’t a naked short.  Puts introduce premium cost and theta decay, much more complicated to deal with and you’d need round lots of 100 shares for the math to work.  You have to understand the difference between a hedge and a naked short.

Mindless_Leave8046

When the market goes down, I keep doing what I'm doing, selling calls. I actually take in more money when the market goes down. The short calls waste away quicker and I rinse and repeat at a faster rate. Yes, the underlying SPY is losing value but with the short call premiums collected I'm losing at a slightly slower pace than the SPY alone. Still outperforming the index. I'm quite content with the situation as I believe that over the long-term SPY is bullish and I'm OK riding out the rough times. The recoveries will always out weight the downturns.

Fhyzikz

No problem. The 15.5p for next Friday is $24 premium which seems tiny but it's actually 1.5% in 8 days if you don't buy to close. Which if you can consistently do that takes a big shit all over SPY annualized. Plus monthly interest on the held collateral that most brokers pay now

mccoyn

Seems like SPY is into edging lately.

dljmonkeyboiz

I feel like everyone knows this except SPY .. that retard

Oblivious_Mastodon

> SPY 540P 4/17 SPY is at $650+. You're expecting a huuuuge drop? > XLE puts Energy puts?! That's a bold move. With Hormuz closed I would have thought calls. What am I missing?

wbradford00

SPY up 10 points

modder9

Because tech is only 30% of spy. Anything that isn’t tech is up or flat. That’s what’s holding spy up. Look at a sector distribution map of SPY.

Important_Cucumber

Can they release the SPY 720?

Basis_404_

Bulls were calling for SPY 700 just a short month ago now tjrt call for SPY 660

sl3azebag

man... SPY to 672 tmrw. I cant believe its really happening. I've been a gay bear for just too long

Electrical_Maize3587

One thing I noticed recently is TSLA moves directly with SPY. Why?

Field_Of_Sorrow

SPY 669.50 1d

weewoowewoooo

Ah yes SPY pumping again for no fucking reason lmfao

dljmonkeyboiz

SPY to 700 probably

DefiantZealot

34 of my positions are stocks and 6 ETFs (SPY, QQQ, SLV, IWM, GLD, DIA). I select the stocks by filtering onto any companies that have more than $10B in market cap and the sort defending by order of IV and then sell iron condors on those tickers. Depending on how the market moves, I’ll end up doing ratio iron condors.

Country_Gravy420

SPY 600 tomorrow

B2BContinuum

Just cruised through 7 intersections, nothing but green light. SPY 700 tomorrow

natures3

Keep half cash. Sell 1DTE puts when red, sell 1DTE calls when green. 1-1.5% OTM. SPY & QQQ

DFW_BjornFree

Oh look 654 my old friend we meet again.  I $SPY with my big balls 649 mañana!

Ok_Persimmon9849

SPY 550 tomorrow!

ShopWhileHungry

SPY is basically a zombie right now, infected with the Orange virus, refusing to die, no soul, wandering

Ok_Persimmon9849

Is anyone seeing the SPY chart on yahoo finance? Are those giant dips real or what?

ALittleWorseEveryday

I got an official Reddit warning for saying “die SPY” in the daily chat. They told me threatening violence towards people groups places or animals is not tolerated. I have prepared this as paragraph as my apology. I state my regret. I hope you all can forgive me someday

StandardDot5115

cmon SPY do the thing

DFW_BjornFree

Buying more april 17th puts if SPY touches 660 this is shit is so free

Lobolabahia

Sure, and then with the proceeds go all in on 0DTE SPY Puts.

anotherloserhere

After fees and stuff, Burry made what, only +400%? He should have bought 0dte SPY options instead. Fucking amateur

Pazzaaaaaa

Cmon donnie, I know you got one more boner tweet to shit out and make SPY go to 670

Happy-Champion1661

Circuit breaker because we hit SPY +20%

Happy-Champion1661

yes, but expect more downside if the market keeps going lower. Bbb-but this is the bottom of SPY, rr-right?

Antique_Cabinet8416

SPY was higher on September 11th than it currently is

achieve_tendernism

Atleast RSP will have minimum exposure. Might swap QQQ and SPY into more of that and SCHM

callsonreddit

Hope tomorrow SPY -1%

Ninja_Cooter

Next year I’m full porting March atm SPY puts on Jan 1 then full porting October atm calls on April 1. 2 trades a year ezpz.

shekurika

dude sold 5 SPY 655 Puts. so he had to have ~300k (5*100*655) to secure it in case he got assigned. he never wouldve lost thst much unless the entire US economy went bankrupt

Flat-Focus7966

Wake me up when SPY goes to 700....

zuziannka

7 mil calls spike on SPY before close does it mean anything?

Basis_404_

So you’re telling me my SPY 695 calls expiring tomorrow aren’t looking so good

LongCucumber3710

!banbet SPY +3 percent 1w

Ok-Piano8789

believe it or not SPY is for poor ppl

curefantastica

the body of his post 4 days ago "I need to stop before I lose it all again, but finally got a good week mostly playing SPY 0dte Puts."