SPY

foreverythingthatis

You mean like 2010-2019? One of the longest consecutive periods of economic growth in US history in which unemployment was low and SPY tripled?

CompoteSpecialist618

!banbet SPY 670 4D

pmotiveforce

I hope so. My "bear" port has been shitting the bed along with the rest of the market, so I guess I need this shit buttoned up asap. I even doubled down and bought some TQQQ Friday in a desperate hope. Now, we go back over SPY 675 at any point, it's back to puts.

brute-forced

1. 6 months mark from midterms 2. Thats most likely when SPY 50dMA intersects the 200dMA and I expect it to bounce extremely hard off that. That is only if the Maries don’t go in next week and start to perish. If boots go on the ground, Oil will spike to $200/bl and inflation WILL spike to 6-10%.

I_ruin_nice_things

0dte scalping based on price action and support/resistance levels and BBs.. +107k Wed-Fri via SPY only. Next week I’ll be trying using more credit spreads on SPX for the tax advantage.

sailortyx56

SPY chart for the last month. Monday, Tuesday: Pump Wednesday-Friday: Dump lol

McKoijion

* If the US surrenders to Iran and removes all troops from military bases in the region, Iran will reopen the Strait and oil prices will drop. SPY will fall in the long term because the petrodollar system would be over. * If the US "declares victory" and keeps its bases in the region, Iran will keep the Strait closed to any countries associated with the US and Israel. Oil prices will remain high and the S&P 500 will drop in the long term because the petrodollar system will be over. * If the US puts boots on the ground as part of a "quick military action" to take Kharg Island or grab nuclear material, Iran will destroy all oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf states. Oil will immediately skyrocket and will remain elevated for many years. The S&P 500 will immediately crash. * If the US escalates into a decades long ground war, oil will skyrocket. The main street American economy will crash into a new great recession and taxpayers will be on the hook for enormous amounts of debt. The stock and real estate markets will drop temporarily, but after poor people are forced to sell to the rich at a loss, they will recover. The owners of American oil companies, defense contractors, tech companies, Wall Street firms, etc. will make a fortune. Israel will create Greater Israel and build a large oil pipeline from the Gulf states to Israel that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. A ton of Americans, Iranians, and migrant workers in the Gulf will suffer and die. But the Israelis, Epstein elites, and Gulf state monarchs will make a fortune in the long run. It's obvious that Netanyahu, Trump, MBS, etc. are going to go with the fourth bullet option. It's been the plan for years as outlined in the Abraham Accords. It's why Mossad helped Trump get elected, helped MBS purge his family for the crown, helped Keir Starmer become the British Prime Minister, etc. The biggest risk is that the rest of the world has figured out what they’re doing. (Using Jared Kushner as a fund manager and a diplomat at the same time made it particularly obvious.) That includes foreign powers like China and Russia as well as the domestic populations of their own countries. They need to escalate this war as quickly as possible before they’re overthrown through a peaceful, democratic process or a violent rebellion.

HalaMadridPapaFlo

lmao. SPY gonna hit 700 next week. 

_Rexfest_

!banbet SPY 669 2D

sl3azebag

They would've been better off with SPY 0dtes. Take some notes, Qatar.

Comfortable_Oil6642

SPY calls no brainer

mo_sultan98

Full port spy shorts? No doubt there will be some rally days, but SPY has been downtrending AND crossed (and closed!) below the SMA 200. It's so over.

Wowmuchrya

I enjoy the SPY 700 spam cope Yes bro, Spy 700, but in 2028

pmotiveforce

You clearly underestimate how delusional bulls can be. SPY could hit $200 next Wed and they would swear there is a V coming, hold the line, BTFD, and if SPY then hit $205 Thursday they would mock bears and declare ultimate victory.

Roxorek

won't be surprised if SPY is red next 4 months in a row snowball effect from hormuz will be huge

johyongil

Whoops. I was thinking IVV. SPY is full replication with sampling ability.

Thethrowawaycfp

You would have to show me one of these ETFs. You mentioned SPY and said some of these ETFs hold less than half the index. SPY has 503 holdings.

Holden_Makock

Msft is below SPY over 5 years. Thats pathetic by any standards.

Holden_Makock

I never understand people who invest in microsoft. There are 100s of better companies than Microsoft. Actually, SPY (an index) beats Microsoft most years. Even on a 5-year scale, SPY is beating Microsoft.

Deep-Sock-8588

So to clarify, is the falling knife problem that you're citing equivalent to saying that volatility can remain elevated for long periods of time or even go up? It would, for example, tempting right now to sell SPY calls for example given the elevated volatility and the index is dropping. So, in that case, you're saying that this strategy might not work out regardless?

ozz3121

On Monday SPY opens at 655, by lunch we're at 630, by close we're at 654.95

cannythecat

March 31st SPY 700 calls only cost a few cents, the war is won, im gonna full port and become a millionaire

SouthNice7324

I have a leveraged ETF 5x SPY, but as I am in Europe, it’s on UK time. If you can believe it, the etf will open up on Monday compared with where it closed on friday. After SPY reached 647

neutralpoliticsbot

>Bush gave “Mission Accomplished” speech on May 1, 2003 aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, saying “major combat operations in Iraq have ended.” Next trading day, May 2, 2003: stocks moved higher. The S&P 500 closed at 930.08 +1.50% By the end of the month SPY was up around **+6%**. Even though the war went on for another 8 years the market reaction was clear. Same thing will happen in Iran, doesn't matter if war will end or not the announcement itself will send the stock market higher.

Wall_St_Bussy

SPY 680 Monday

johyongil

Sorry for the incoming wall of text. When you look at sub 250k investment platforms, a large majority of them don’t care about taxes not because they don’t exist, but because they’re negligible, at least on a nominal basis, if not also on a percentage basis. If I profit $500 off of $5000 in capital gains as a lower income bracket, my tax is around $70. Negligible. It is what it is at this point. When we look at everything else above the 250k mark, most of the time taxes are much larger in nominal AND percentage basis; typically we have to calculate in +20%. Now, ETFs are pretty tax efficient as they are: they’re cheap and they allow an investor to not face capital gains from moves inside the etf so long as they only hold it. Much more so than mutual funds. But there’s two main weaknesses with ETFs: 1. They’re only tax efficient because of a tax loophole and is why they’re constructed the way they are (at a distance). Because of this, etf managers only really care about performance metrics. 2. Inflexibility. ETFs are largely like lunchables or microwavable dinners. No subs, no exclusions, no customizations. They are what they are. Take it or leave it. Which allows costs to come down. SMAs, by comparison, while having higher capital requirements, have a number of advantages. They are tax efficient because they utilize tax laws as they are. There is far less risk to legislative measures that could affect its tax efficiencies. They also cost about as much as ETFs do. Yes, they’re higher as they’re actively managed, but not by an insane delta. Most ETFs are around 0.01 to 0.40. SMAs are from 0.00%-0.40% depending on the product and the firm platform housing them. They’re also super customizable. Don’t like Elon companies? Request that they get taken out of your portfolio. Want more Meta? Request a higher concentration. Don’t want as much Apple because you work there and have a ton of RSUs? You can request a lower percentage. Investing in a Total Global SMA but want less US exposure? You can ask for that. Like going to a nice restaurant, if you will. And one of the biggest advantages SMAs have is that they can pass surplus/unused tax losses to the investor that can be utilized to offset any capital gains incurred. Recently, there are new SMAs called Direct Indexing SMAs where the portfolio’s entire purpose is to basically be an open architecture ETF but WAY MORE tax efficient. You select an ETF to mirror, select how much tracking error you’ll allow (how much can this portfolio be off the mark by) and other customizations. (As a note: the lowest capital requirement I’ve seen for a DI SMA is 100k. This is for practical purposes as you cannot efficiently function according to the purpose with a smaller portfolio. Average size requirement is 250k.) Now here’s an important piece of information: When looking at ETFs like SPY, they are following the SP500 index which is made up of 500 large cap companies. But if you look inside the actual etf, they don’t actually hold 500 positions. They typically only hold a little less than half. This is because every position isn’t going to be a winner. They just choose a roster that most closely aligns with the investment approach/philosophy of the fund. DI SMAs will typically hold much larger amount of positions, specifically the loser positions as they can generate more taxable losses (hence selecting the tracking error) by trading winning positions for losing positions or vice versa depending on what they need to do. It’s more complex than this but that‘s a very simplified view of the mechanics. As an example, take last year. SP500 returned 17.9%. SMAs tracking the SP500 unusually returned 18.2% (typically it’s about 1.5% lower than the benchmark) BUT ALSO returned about a net of $150k (from a 1M portfolio) in tax losses. If someone liquidated all 1M from SPY, all of the 179k profit would be subject to capital gains tax. Investors in the DI SMA who liquidated their whole portfolio would be subject to….$32,000 worth of gains being subject to capital gains. EVEN if that 32k was subject to 20% and the 179k was subject to 10%, the DI strategy is going to have WAY MORE money post tax. You don’t even have to utilize the tax losses for the portfolio. You can apply it to anything that would be subject to capital gains. So here’s an everyday scenario: Let’s say a client has 500k worth of APPL stock and wants to liquidate it down but really doesn’t like the tax liability. We can employ a high tracking error strategy with emphasis on driving down the tax starting in Jan 1 and by December 31, the tax liability be less than 20% of what it would have been if the client just liquidated it on his own. Oh, and the portfolio will be diversified according to whatever index the client would like to adopt and be up on the year, provided the index also had a profitable year.

_LakeCity_

Looking at the chart, SPY really is due for a bounce, especially when you look at where RSI is sitting. A bounce to the 675ish range looks due. But I think it'll be a dead cat and then head back down to the 590 level as the Iran conflict predictably worsens.

Vulknar44

I trade SPY on 0dte daily..it’s as simple as watching,waiting and entering on confirmation

Ok_Persimmon9849

Copium is why, look at SPY 6 month. NVIDIA announced 1 trillion in revenue in 2027, the bubble is set to burst, there are so many issues besides the war they are praying a fake pump from the war "ending" can save them because they didn't take one of the 101 chances to get out they had this week.

neutralpoliticsbot

Remember when 🌮 literally tweeted this: >"THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT," he wrote at 9:37 a.m. And bears on WSB were still buying puts remember? Less than 4 hours later after that tweet he cancelled the tariffs and SPY rocketed up **+9.5%** that day #thats +9% on SPY in a day. This is what's coming for you bears. Get your anuses properly prepared. 🤡

Happy-Champion1661

quick quick someone sell me some oil I cannot wait for market open omg oil to $300 on Monday anyway SPY ~~700~~ *600* eow

VeganTurkishBaklava

That’s how options trading is so retarded. I lost money w SPY puts yesterday.

DialSquar

$600 SPY

deepserket

Everyone know the buy signal is SPY@420

Forsaken-Bid8757

The bounce started before the tweet. The tweet just fueled it. A retest of SPY 660 is kind of expected either way. It’s not like all bulls are dead.

L_DUB_U

I copied your comment into chatgpt because I am slightly hungover and not feeling like figuring it all out myself. With currency exchange it's a 2% win for the CAC. However all of those gains are lost after fees and currency conversion. I'm not here to argue I have owned VXUS since 2019. It's an ETF I just let ride because for many years it just remained flat. In 2019 I purchased it for 50.96 a share and in December 2024 it was 59 a share. It wasn't until this past year that there was much growth. The shares I bought in 2019 have a 46% growth where my share of SPY bought in 2019 have132%. Being diverse is important but I don't think I'm going to change how much international stock I buy from what I am doing.

conkilln

Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Oscars!! SPY to 500 monday

Basis_404_

Imagine going full port into SPY 680 calls on Wednesday morning when SPY was at 673

SnapPunch

This is the answer. Those SPY 650P options were huge. Not sure if they actually executed at 4:15 as SPY got close to 650 there

cynicism_is_awesome

Jane Street is a plague upon the stock markets… well.. anything they touch. They should be banned. They are the biggest holder of SPY and many other ETFs and they thrive on creating volatility to shake out weak hands, intentionally triggering stop losses and margin calls so that they can profit from that.

TheInkDon1

"Something is *always* going up, it's our job as traders to find it." That's my philosophy, and I believe it's true. Though in 2000 and 2008/9 I wasn't paying as much attention to my trading as I am now, so I can't 'prove' it. But now I'm watching daily (or nearly) and taking notes of all my trades, as well as weekly account balances. Are we in a bear market now? No. Are we in a correction? No. But are we headed in that direction? Sure looks like it. Have you looked at a 1-year or 3-year chart of the S&P or Nasdaq lately? Going down. This is [SPY and QQQ](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/compare/spy-vs-qqq/). Change the view to 5 years, then 3 years. Both are clearly going down. SPY peaked at 695 on 2/2. It's at 648 today, down 6.7%. 10% is a "correction," and 20% is officially a bear market. Did you look at the chart of the 3 ETFs I'm in? Let me pull one of them out and compare it to SPY: [XOP vs. SPY](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/compare/xop-vs-spy/) The 3-month is a good view: XOP up 42%, SPY *down* 4.7%. Do you see how it works? The *whole market* doesn't go into correction or bear at the same time. It's just an average of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index. And even though that index is going down right now, I guarantee you could look through those 500 companies and find many that are going up. That's why I say it's our job to find them. Just because you're told we're in a bear market, don't sit in cash: find the things that are still going up. There'll always be some. Take care.

JohanLiebert92

SPY's slowly becoming a meme stock

WordsHappenedHere

And indexes are done much more than 5%. Dow is down 9%. SPY was down 7% at the lows Friday. My god look at IGV and software. And every Mag 7 down mix more than 5%.

Katahdinclimber

Wait until we get out of the Middle East and fuel prices start going down again. The market will continue to roll over as long as gas prices are rising. Most of these guys here just guess on SPY options. They can't be of any help.

marinegeo

Never time the market, unless you’re a regarded yolo3r like me. I did really complex contemporary TA I learned at wsb, termed “staring at wiggles”, which led me to exit my $SPY position in January and I took profits like a coward and boiled them into a new irl business my wife’s boyfriend told me about (apparently business is hot at the Dumpsters out the back of Wendy’s rn) and am just starting to think about possible reentry points… We are at ~650 and I’m considering starting to build an entry position. I think we may have a few more weeks of the bears being in control tho. What do you think about this correction reaching 620-600? Start scaling in like a responsible adult now. Or go full yolo regard now and pray to JPow on my knees behind Wendy’s working for my new business?

ImJoeontheradio

I have "SPY 627" on a post it note next to my laptop.

No-Improvement3164

SPY blew past the 653 support to 645 so a AI generated tweet hit the algorithm to pop it back up so his Chartist didn’t look bad. 😂😂 SPY sitting at 653. Sensational!!

systerix

Bro i don't get lucky, I create my own luck But fair point maybe I should just toss everything into SPY calls and triple my money

UsernameTaken_123

The moment I buy a put is the moment the war ends, world peace is declared and SPY goes to 900 overnight

No-Improvement3164

The real question is will the SPY chart look like Microsoft chart does

Megaloman-_-

Thank you, good strategy, I should start using SPY and/or VOO as well !

Fun-Imagination-2488

There’s always some bad news causing panic. It’s hilarious how common drops like this one are. Here’s how often this end of the world nonsense happens and causes drops in SPY: >5%: 2-4x/year >10%: every 1.5 years(2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023) >15-20%: every 4 years(2018, 2020, 2022, 2025) >50%: every 25 years(1929, 1973, 2000-02, 2008)

Puzzleheaded_Owl_417

SPY Monday 680.

WordsHappenedHere

Not really. What if the market goes sideways for 6 months? I’ve been doing this a long time. Try trading a market that goes sideways for months or years. Look at 2014-2016. The time to add 3 month puts was 3 months ago when VIX was below 20. I’ve already done that. I cashed them in this week. You don’t chase puts when nearly every sentiment and breadth indicator says a bottom is close. The best strategy here is to take whatever profits you have from long term rail risk hedging and use it to go long. But I wouldn’t go long with options. Look at 2016 (another mid term year) for example. Very similar setup. Market grinded higher after it bottomed in Q1 but the gains were slow. And it didn’t really take off until June/July and just went sideways most of Q2. Also IV is jacked here. If you get the direction wrong you will get crushed. It’s better to wait for VIX to settle. I’m looking at adding some leaps around summer time. And I want to wait to see if SPY $650 holds first over the course of the next month.

Amazing-Topic2827

Day 1 of Conflict: WAR IS BULLISH WE ARE SO BACK THANK YOU 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 SPY 750 EOW BER R FUK Day 30 of War: Bers are evil commies for buying oil calls after oil supply was stopped

Thecreamcheeze

+3% SPY Monday

Academic_Lock_1699

"Sellers getting exhausted" is one of the dumbest things to say when SPY is still this high as to 5 years ago

Cozyteammate

If you're OK with 10% per year, then it's a buy But keep in mind of opportunity cost. SPY/QQQ could also yield 10% per year or more, while being much more diversified and carry less risk. This mean that GOOG has more risk than SPY/QQQ, but by buying GOOG you are getting very little excess return for far greater risk. It might not be worth it. If it seem confusing, I suggest you copy my comment and talk with AI, try to understand it, because if you do, it will boost your investing journey by a lot.

lookingforajob2020

I bought a shitload of 3/25 SPY 650c at 3:30pm and forgot to sell before market close. Please can the market pump 3% on Monday thank you

Striking_Box_6116

Especially rn dawg, keep seeing random comments about SPY rallies to 700+ but I don’t know who’s buying in this market

Emergency-Ticket5859

Chuck Norris is dead SPY about to crater

Zimoula

!banbet SPY $690 7D

IntrepidToday0

Anyone else seeing a descending bull hexagon on the SPY weekly chart?

-IQ200

If we could just rip the bandage & let the SPY die to 615, that’d be great.

Pale-Silver-8178

Most are bearish, so SPY +5% Monday

Peresviet

First off, I want to say I am not pro this war. It's a bad idea, bad execution, and the previous nuclear deal actually worked. Killing the anti-nuclear weapons Ayatollah was a bad strategic move. With that said, I think SPY will be above 650 in 60 days.

Suavecore_

Why does the Google ticker for SPY show a 7:55-8pm drop to 648.57? Is that real?

_LakeCity_

Barron von Trump sits there with his finger on the nuclear codes. You know this. You stare at those severely OTM short-dated SPY calls that are the only thing you can afford to buy. You think to yourself: "n3vEr bEt aGAiNsT aMEriCA!!!!1"

Initial_Ad_9250

"Alea iacta est . " I say as I fullport my networth on 0dte 1% OTM SPY options after watching one roman documentary

raisedeyebrow4891

I keep buying USO puts with my short SPY call premium… already bought all the SPY leaps money can buy… it can go tits up or V with a tweet

Mr_Canada1867

SPY at the same price it was in early Sept 2025…

Eclectic_Beer_Tap

Here's an idea: "Tired of swearing? Now your filthy mouth can fund your financial ruin *and* your spiritual one. Every time you drop an F-bomb, the app yolos a SPY 0DTE call or put — randomly. You're not just washing your mouth out with soap, you're washing your savings out with theta decay."

ughilostmyusername

In on SPY at 448. I guess I’ll sell all now first thing Monday unless marins take Kharg this weekend

jsie-iaiqhsi816278

crazy how people decided to slit their wrist business style instead of voting for another milquetoast run-of-the-mill career politician SPY wouldve been 1400 right now

Top_Cranberry_3254

How low does everyone suppose it will go? I predicted SPY 645 this week, and today it hit it. My Index Limit Buys for VTI originally started at 320, which it would've hit today, but I adjusted it 2 days ago to start around 316---tapered down to the high 200s around 285.

SlartibartfastMcGee

Bears calling for $200 oil reeks of the people who were buying $90p on SPY during Covid.

callsonreddit

Crazy SPY -5.5% this month

Ancient-Swordfish292

It would be sort of funny to watch my I bonds return more than SPY, but probably more scary than funny.

intxcated

No idea but SPY 648 so must be true

Luc3121

Continuation! The lesson I learned from the previous crash is not to get back in too quickly, let things play out for a bit and if you start to see a trend it's time to get back in. I correctly predicted the start of the 2025 crash and got out mid-February with about a third of the leveraged side of my portfolio, but I got back in way too early (late february / early march) expecting a bounce around the 200SMA, and faced a 50% drawdown at the worst point early April. At that point, my emotional instinct was not to open my broker app at all. Many lessons learned, this time I correctly predicted the crash again with 50% of my portfolio in cash and 10% in leveraged VIX longs (should've been SQQQ, oh well), but agnostic for what happens next days. Would not be surprised if this ends up being a -20% year for SPY, not too eager to go back in with leverage.

FeverTreeCloud

Too much SPY talks Calls on Palantir calls on defense stocks call on CIA

Scalpaholic

SPY 600 is not a meme. We've literally been there before.

johnlovesbigwomen

IF you had of risked $ 100,000 on SPY OR QQQ puts after Crabel low was taken out after 7:00 AM, you would have made at least $ 1,000,000! Diamond hands? You got LUCKY!

Mysterious-Device-53

Pretty damn close on SPY

Hamzehaq7

ugh same here, my portfolio's down like 12% too... mostly messing around with calls and trying to catch those bounces. idk what it is, but this market is just rough right now. even with the SPY and QQQ taking a hit, I thought I could play it better. any thoughts on when it's gonna turn around?

Then-Kaleidoscope520

Oh I love that others are sharing this thought. I trade $SPY options daily, and it’s been exhausting … I have certainly minimized losses, actually I’m only a couple of hundred from break even, but each trade has carried less confidence than the last. Simply because premiums are jacked, I’ve been more prone to cutting winners early. And I can’t even afford next day contracts, let alone, who feels safe holding anything overnight? That must feel like a crazy blind bet.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

You may not be doing so hot then. Since the war started, international markets have dropped about twice as hard as the US (comparing SPY to VXUS).

Pale-Silver-8178

So corn is a better indicator than weekend oil buttcorn up= SPY green buttcorn down= SPY red

brute-forced

Bend over, no lube, SPY -16% EOY

Amazing-Topic2827

The permabulls here are the human version of the meme w/ 8th place doing champagne showers, even a 5% gap up on Monday would only get you to 685. A level WSB was assured would never be seen again. Back when we missed our last chance to buy below 690. SPY 700 BY OPEN

BenySpaghetty

SPY still up 15% on the 1-year. Gravity points up in the stock market. Bulls always win.

JohanLiebert92

SPY chart looking like an upside down clitoris

YouKnown999

!banbet SPY 640 7d

EmbarrassedKoala3982

!banbet SPY 665 3d

Spirited_Let_2220

Just took a peak at $PL and boy am I kicking myself. I had Jan 27 leaps that I bought in October which I sold for like a 15% gain because they weren't moving. Well fuck, them bitches would have made me like 60x if I held. Anyways, looking at $ONDS next week maybe. $SPY looks like it wants to go test $610 so I'm really only considering things that have relative strength. Any other tickers to look at?

Official05

What do you guys think; I bought SPY calls expiring in 2 months at close. Is it worth running it or should I sell at open ?

callsonreddit

u/31andnotdone sold my tech stocks. Only holding oil stocks If SPY green on Mon then imma spank you

burneraccount1819

!banbet SPY 600 1w

31andnotdone

Yesterday SPY was +0.3% AH but opened big red. ~~What if the~~same happens again on Mon

callsonreddit

Yesterday SPY was +0.3% AH but opened big red. What if the same happens again on Mon?