SPY

Penny-Conquer-Club

SPY breaking 700 will be climax

mykeedee

If he did that then he wouldn't be able to print money by buying SPY puts and threatening eleventy billion % tarriffs on X or Y vital input to the US economy.

IllBuyYourCar

Remember on liberation day SPY pumped AH when 🥭started talking about vehicle tariffs Then bro brought out that mf board and we tanked 3% LMAO

HospitalNovel2635

interesting approach but few red flags here: **the 78% accuracy sounds good but:** 1. **lookahead bias maybe?** \- you're using daily high/low to calculate your target but when would you actually know the high/low to make the trade? you only know it at close. so are you simulating entering at open and exiting at close? need to be clear on execution timing otherwise your backtest is meaningless 2. **0.7% threshold seems arbitrary** \- you picked the median but that doesn't mean it's profitable after fees/spread/slippage. a 0DTE straddle on SPY costs like 0.5-0.8% in premium easily, so you need way more than 0.7% movement to profit. did you factor in actual option pricing? 3. **LASSO + linear regression is pretty basic** \- not saying it can't work but vol has a ton of nonlinear patterns. have you tried xgboost or even just a HAR model as a baseline? linear models tend to underperform for vol prediction 4. **that 2017 result (25% accuracy) is brutal** \- what happened there? low vol year so fewer signals? this is exactly the kind of regime change that kills strategies. did you investigate why it failed so hard? 5. **rolling window approach is good** but 5yr train / 1yr test might be too long. vol regimes change fast. try 2yr train / 6mo test and see if it's more stable **biggest issue imo:** you're predicting realized vol but trading options. realized vol ≠ implied vol. you need to compare your RV prediction to IV in the market to find mispricings. if IV is already 1.5% and you predict RV of 0.8%, buying straddles is -EV even if you're right about direction also 74% accuracy doesn't mean 74% profitable trades. what's your actual PnL simulation including option pricing? that's the only metric that matters if you want to see what actually works for vol forecasting beyond basic linear models check this [https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40854-025-00809-5](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40854-025-00809-5) good luck with paper trading, definitely do that for a while before risking real money

BLVCKYOTA

Dude, profit is profit. Getting greedy is for those rare gain posts where they got lucky (or on occasion are just really really smart). I’ll take a $200 profit on a $2k call any day and use the profits to buy a couple $SPY shares and save the rest for taxes. Sounds like you’re trading smarter, not harder.

AvocadoPurees

50mil shares traded on SPY today, up .5 bols bro love that shirt 😴

fire_alarmist

Correct, despite how much as the mindless dunces downvote. If you just look at SPY in different currencies you can see clearly exactly what has happened today. SPY actually went down a bunch in currencies that arent toilet paper. SPY in EURO basis

fire_alarmist

Today was actually a really red day that went down all day in non toilet paper currencies lmao. SPY in euro basis gapped up then did nothing but slide down the whole day.

CapriKitzinger

Yep!! Been doing CSP on TSLL (Tesla leveraged) and MSTZ (inverse micro strategy) and USAS (silver leveraged I think). Or you can sell wayyyyy out of the money SPY Put spreads. 🤷🏼‍♀️ or buy BABO, it’s BABA with a weekly dividend.

music_is_gud

"GLD 700 before SPY 700" looking impossible right now

Flat-Focus7966

SPY ATH not giving that feel till it hits 700 It may do that tomorrow

HaveTwoBananas

SPY 700 by open

SalsaDeVerga

!banbet SPY 701 3d

SalsaDeVerga

!banbet SPY 701 3 days

Gom_KBull

# CONGRATS BOLS!!!! >!SPY back to where it was 2 weeks ago!<

miketdavis

If you're saving for the long-term future then just keep piling money into index funds like SPY or QQQ. Contribute whatever you can up to the Roth max every year. The biggest threat to your portfolio is honestly your own temptation to take money out. Invest what you can afford and under no circumstances should you ever take money out unless it truly is a dire emergency. Real estate is good also but it is a bit speculative and has some high risks. Rental properties can be good, but one nightmare tenant can ruin you. I've always steered clear of rental properties for that reason.

CellTechnical4616

SPY down in EUR 1%, up in USD. or SPY down in EUR, 1% up in USD. I can't figure out if I should be happy or sad here...

pink_ego_box

This is the way So many daily traders here underperforming SPY

FijianThor

!banbet SPY Jan 28 0.75%

Scarfaceb1tch

My plays for tomorrow are looking great. Today picked up Mu SNDK SPY and SLV calls. PLTR as well but we aren’t talking about that one

lSazedl

The past couple meetings have had SPY drop like a rock between 2-3, im assuming this is a buffer.

orangeyougladiator

It already happened. USD is down 11% while SPY hasn’t moved

Fun-Personality-8008

$1k in SPY today at historical real returns untouched for 70 years would be equivalent to $128k in 2026 dollars. That's not anywhere close to replacing social security and certainly not half of anyone's retirement covered

swampassOG

SPY 800 because usd is kinda ass

bearhunter429

#SPY $750 next week LMAO🤌

Alone_Education_2530

SPY 700 is finally happening!

neverseengreen

SPY opens up 1% then melts up to 2%?

theummeower

SPY goes one of these ways tomorrow. Make your gamble and decide how you would like to lose money. At open it pumps and then it dumps when interest announced (priced in, interest rate cut leaked) At open it dumps and then it rips when interest rate cut announced. It opens flat and then it dumps extra hard when JPow announces no rate cut.

AKOnDaTrack

JPOW gonna seal SPY 700 tmrw

1098duc_w_the_termi

This is good for my SPY 777 leaps.

Icy-Motor-8519

Soooo SPY PUTs at 1:50pm tomorrow? Will Powell drop the world on our fucking heads? Will my PP ever get big? Stay tuned for this and more on StockCock.

fire_alarmist

Its actually insane that SPY valued in Euros is down really hard since Jan 16th lmao, this shit is all one big fucking charade. That and the fact that we just keep going down below the pretariff announcement levels on SPY valued in euros is kinda insane. Wild how a different perspective makes everything so clear, I gotta buy more silver.

tastyfreeeze69

I would like for everyone to take a look back at the last time SPY hit 697 overnight

PotentialReason3301

SPY gonna open at $700 at this rate....

jsie-iaiqhsi816278

bears saw sunday night futures at -.98 % and didn’t think we’d hit SPY 700 bears ROFL

Glum-Wealth-6171

What's the news on SPY? Why pumping again?

Pale_Newspaper_82

Not even going to question it, switching from SPY puts to calls immediately tomorrow morning.Tired of losing all the time

PotentialReason3301

SPY $704 C in the morning. Roll into $690 P for Friday rippidy dippidy

geraldz

SPY puts. Pending Iran beheading.

GoogleKushforLunch

SPY keep pumping like this I don’t give a damn what JPOW gotta say cause ima sell at open regardless

EnginrA

SPY 700 wen

fire_alarmist

One last SPY 700 push, for old times sake. Take some pictures bulls, it will be decades before we get this close again.

Pale_Newspaper_82

SPY 700 AH, why not? Why not +0.5% moves every PM/AH?

Happy-Champion1661

imagine being an europoor, you see SPY go up and still lose money cuz USD is worthless LMAO

viperex

Personally, I quit trading individual companies and went with index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA & IWM). That's one less thing I have to analyze and think about.

HaveAKlondike

I’m not going to bother timing it. Too much financial engineering and insane amounts of leverage in the background. However, once it does crack I don’t plan to buy in until either SPY hits 450 or we see a change in administration.

MrLebouwski

SPY 700 finally coming true tomorrow. About time

orangeyougladiator

SPY in October: 695 SPY now: 695 Gold: 50% Silver: 100% USD -11%. Pay attention

ChronBurgundy

It's just been a lot more fun too. I used to primarily trade SPY and SPX but now I trade a bunch of different tickers. It's so much more relaxing scaling in with shares when a company is getting battered than trying to find the perfect entry with options. I never realized how difficult I was making it on myself before. Now I work way more hours than I did last year and just set alerts on my phone to keep up with when to buy more or stop losses. I've also been limiting losses this month to around $2-3k instead of just letting them run into $10k for no reason

fire_alarmist

Yea except it literally might because we are at the tail end of a massive rally and liquidity is getting crunched left right and center everywhere. The yen situation that sent us gapping down Monday night before the Fed intervened is something as well. There are like a thousand reasons why we might go down because they literally have ignored like 1000 events that should have sent us down some and kept stacking the house of cards higher and higher. It would be different if there was normal market structure, but we are basically structureless since SPY 620.

Cashmoneytendies

Straddling SPY this week and next week, there’s no way I lose 

brucekeller

Nah rug is on bers. Probably end the year like SPY 1k or something.

tcmart14

Or saying SPY to the moon on 0.54% while some international ETFs went almost 2% (SCHF 1.95% today).

tcmart14

SPY to the moon, but the moon was moved to sea level.

orangeyougladiator

SPY -3% and Intel +30% tomorrow and I retire from retirement a hundred millionaire

wallstreetbets-ModTeam

Thanks for your submission! r/WallStreetBets is ultimately a community about making money through trading, and our conversations should shift around that. Politics are fundamentally intertwined with making money, and political actions almost always have an impact on financial markets. Still, we need to make sure that when we have these discussions, we're explicitly calling out the financial impacts of the politics we're discussing. Otherwise, the conversation can very easily veer off into flamewars and boring, unproductive, discussion. Here's an example of a political comment that doesn't offer any value: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. What a fucking idiot" Now compare it to this: * "I hate this new green policy from the Biden administration. It threatens the profit margins of oil companies because they will need to expand their OpEx. I have calls on Shell that are going to get decimated at open." The latter is significantly more interesting and offers a great jumping point into market related discussion. Put succinctly: If you choose to start or engage in arguments about libtards or Nazis instead of making fun of their bad SPY long then you're in the wrong place and we'll show you the door. If you're not sure if your content is political, it probably is, and there's probably a better way to post it without making things weird. --- All that being said, we are here to help. We want to make it as easy as possible for you to post to our community. We have to balance this with making the subreddit interesting for our readers. If you need some guidance, don't hesitate to [reach out to modmail](https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) and we'll give you some pointers!

Kirko_Cousins

SPY 700? 🫩👉👈

Distinct_Car7737

SPY 7013 now. Tomorrow is the end of bers for a long long time

llamaflocka

Knew this would hit the nerve, cuz that’s my story too. Let’s buy some VOO or SPY or whatever and chill. You know, unless…….

COBRA_DROGO

SPY earnings tomorrow?

OnceALoser

This sums up the day for tomorrow. Powell keeps the rate constant. Orange man screams at him. SPY hits 7000. Did I miss anything.

JoJoPizzaG

Download CBOE historical data and you can see which tickets traded the most.  On top of my head, SPY QQQ IWM IBIT. Forgot the ticker for the treasury ETF. 

Valkorion335786

Tomorrow SPY poots $10 OTM might print lmao

Roxorek

if they're choosing devaluation of dollar to bring back manufacturing - then we're talking about 20-30% crash in DXY. Not many people are ready. SPY TO THE MOOOON THO

gratatatatatatat

TSLA beating would send it down. TSLA missing would send it so high we get SPY $750 probably

Junkingfool

Let's just say MSFT, META, and TSLA all beat and spike 3-5% each tomorrow. SPY target would be??

Roxorek

TRUMP: I WILL ANNOUNCE FED CHAIR PICK SOON Rick Rieder incoming lower rates incoming weaker dollar incoming SPY to the moon incoming

Alone-Travel-7732

Fuck Brad’s wife, he’s face is red as fuck. Put on SPY

jumpingjacks86

Mfs really sold in April at SPY $500 last year thinking they did the right thing

Roxorek

dollar devaluation on purpose gdp estimates mooning inflation slowing AI making huge advancements SPY to 900

deevee12

The bull case is if you don’t invest in the market now all your savings become worthless and you’ll retire in an Amazon warehouse SPY to 1000, have a nice day

gummibearhawk

Bought some SPY 700 calls just in case

mcs5280

Will Wendy's accept SPY shares as payment for my frosty now that the dollar is completely worthless? 

fish_

i had blown my $6k account up and it was down to $150 in mid december.  i yolod my last $150 into spy 0dtes and turned it into $300, and i kept playing spy 0dtes until i had about $1500 at which point i bought a weekly contract right before the big pump on 12/24 and that $1500 turned into $3k.  at this point i got involved in silver which turned $3k->6k ish.  then turned $6k to $10k with GOOG calls and ran it all the way up to $18k, followed by a drawdown back to $12k ish when GOOG corrected a couple weeks ago.  i crawled my way back up with a mix of tickers including ONDS, NBIS, SMCI, TE, EOSE and a lot of SLV and GLD.  ultimately started completely avoiding SPY around this time as well since its price action felt too unpredictable.  I mostly was buying monthlies and holding them for a few days or a week maximum.  MU carried me from $18k->30k in the last few trading days.  i sorta go over what i was doing at the time in my previous posts if you want to check those out.  sorry for the wall of text

NeighborhoodDry1821

!banbet SPY -0.5% 30min

PM_ME__YOUR_HOOTERS

Thats the point. The SPY might have jumped 17% in a year, but the dollar lost 11% in value in the same time and inflation is still happening while that is going on...so the real growth is not looking great for 2025

dangernext

F the dollar, SPY 700 here we come!!

freddiessweater

Someone in another thread did it for eur, so here it is for sek SPY Jan 27 2025 596 USD SPY Jan 27 2026 696 USD SPY Jan 27 2025 6609 sek SPY Jan 27 2025 6103 sek

Memes_Jack

SPY can finally reach 700 by devaluing dollar.

tastyfreeeze69

So are my SPY puts going to print or will I have to close up shop physically and spiritually

thec4nman

How is SPY at 695 and every stock is dog shit

advantage_player

I'm holding SPY 850 leaps and Im looking at bond holders like they're the retards

killmyself44

The one fucking day i buy SPY puts, it LITERALLY HIT ATH. If you wanna inverse me, my next play is $ROPE.

cannythecat

We can get to SPY 1000 if we devalue the USD another 40 percent

Initial_Ad_9250

SPY 700 come on

bearhunter429

#TXN will take SPY to $700+ tomorrow LMAO🤌

xbitxfatxstonkx

SPY 700! Let's Go! My wallet needs it.

Overall-Fold-9720

But look, SPY is at ATH, who cares about things like currency valuation !

Overall-Fold-9720

Is it SPY going up or just the USD going down ? Anyway, 🥭 will just say we are at ATH, and people will cheer

Gom_KBull

SPYtards celebrating the fact that SPY has successfully stayed in the same gay range it has been for 3 months # LMAO

0mica0

!banbet SPY $725 1w

DropHeaven

Why is SPY allergic to $700

Desperate_Recipe2450

!banbet SPY 685 2d

Desperate_Recipe2450

!banbet SPY 685 1/29

jrex035

Same, wish I had got full port months ago. But even with a very defensive portfolio I more than doubled the SPY returns last year and I'm up more than 15% in the past month

LavishnessTimely7372

Bought SPY puts and GLD SLV calls for tomorrow. Wish me luck

DoggedStooge

As you said, the dollar is tanking. As long as the DXY keeps going down, SPY will appear resilient (albeit the value of the market relative to the rest of the world will actually be falling).

Dennistheemennis

The SPY who fucked me

Dennistheemennis

Fuck you SPY

pobreconinternet

SPY has tripled since the low of the pandemic. Bears can't scare me even if it drops 20%. Sell America and we will buy the dip.