SPY

Captain_TuckFard

I'm kinda at a fuck it point in my life and might buy some LEAPS. SPY $800 😈

Professional-Sell136

My first instinct is to short SPY and QQQ and all the fucking loser mag7 bitches, but that is what they're expecting this week. Going inverse, because the market is full regard at this time. Never bet against full retard...ever.

mayorolivia

I don’t think this happens until SPY reports earnings

mayorolivia

It’s actually a miracle SPY and QQQ are up double digits this year considering how regarded this admin is

financiallythriving

SPY +20% tomorrow

financiallythriving

SPY -20% tomorrow

Gristle__McThornbody

bro really thought the no deal with Canada was going to collapse the SPY.

Necessary_Gene_1868

Reddit calling for black Monday when SPY is down 0.01% is peak wsb

ShittyUsernane1222

if SPY had an -20% day, there would be still 0dte bears shorting and being liquidated at the short term bottom before the inevitable partial rebound and another -20% day

Stonksupdown

Wow my SPY puts gonna print hard tmrw

beargambogambo

I don’t think we have seen SPY fall that fast in recent days

brute-forced

!banbet SPY -5% 13d

brute-forced

!banbet SPY -5% 2w

jsie-iaiqhsi816278

i don’t understand how anyone could finish seeing the big short and be bearish. moral of the story is the usa will bleed it’s population dry if it means SPY ATH

hallett21

SPY +2% at open. -1% by close

Coinleftt

Anybody buying SPY calls?

traderbusto

Holding SPY calls over the weekend feels like a poor use of my funds

financiallythriving

SPY gets railed by BRC (Big Red Candle)

modder9

So coin flip odds. Skip the foreplay and just get 0DTE SPY calls at 9:35AM sell at 9:50

manatee_strike_force

Mmmmm daddy put that SPY +.03% inside me and whisper ber fukt

No_Presentation9490

they already have happened in slow motion. SPY in gold terms has lost value since 2008. SPY compared to M2 money supply is even more horrifying.

Notilting

SPY 780

Odd-Block-2998

SPY: ??

FeverTreeCloud

There SPY goes there SPY goes again….

mayorolivia

SPY is down 0.06%. It’s fuckin over

HystericalSail

Exactly why I've started allocating far more to VXUS than VT, and I've been prioritizing that over SPY.

financiallythriving

SPY -3% tomorrow and I’ll take a shit at work tomorrow on my boss’s desk and quit

modder9

Why bother actually having SPY at 800 if Fox will just remove the ticker and call it a day?

W_Edwards_Deming

It isn't about agreeing with me, it is about the subreddit's culture. You and a few others have been pleasant, one guy gave me useful advice about comparing the earnings yield with the 10 year treasury bond, another gave me some ETF suggestions. Most were rude an did not engage with the information I presented. It isn't burying my head to walk away from that. I didn't say I will never have an index fund, I simply don't prefer them. Why have 300 stocks in an index fund when I can carefully select 30 myself? I am not the one sneering and I have already generated a "salary." If I were the target audience of this group I'd have done what my finance text suggested and being an obedient retail investor putting 10% of my money into SPY or similar from my first job till today. I didn't, and what did do worked rather well. I may not have beaten the market for four years but I did make about double what the interest on my HYSA provided. Now I am doing far better than that, and importantly I don't want exposure to google, meta and so forth. I don't trust tech, expect an AI bubble burst and believe Gold will rise. My instincts have proven right this year, paired with the screening strategy in the OP. I am not sneering not burying my head. If you were the norm I'd be ok with that, if the guys with the usable advice were the norm I'd be a regular active member trying to provide value of my own. I am the one who has been sneered at by those burying their heads (rightly or wrongly, I can accept that I am seen as a dubious source despite my evidence). In short: What I am doing has been working and it *should,* as it isn't simply something I made up but rather an approximation of Buffett's approach. I am willing to have a German ETF (I used to have Korea fund as well but sold when the Iran war began) to have some exposure to their market but my stocks are overwhelmingly small value / blend. I will grant you that your advice would have been better than what I did for the first few years, but I may not have learned as much. In any case I appreciate your engagement and entirely understand your aversion to what you see as the stress of my approach. I actually enjoy it, hence my desire to discuss it with others who might know more.

Jaredthegoat_

it's so freaking over chat, SPY gonna take a dumpster dive tomorrow

Valvador

> I have been at it for four years, only beat the market this year. Thought this might be a place to discuss what worked and get some feedback, apparently not. Beating the market one year isn't a sign of a successful strategy, right? Maybe you're a genius, or maybe you just got lucky this year. The reason people are telling you "get back to us in 9 more years" is because you are literally competing with index funds that have historically been safe to invest in and beat most stock picking options. That is the reason you are getting a reaction like this. Everyone can have a REALLY GOOD YEAR, with a really bad strategy. You seem to have an interesting idea on your hand, and you COULD backtest your model on historical data, especially the recent stock crashes in 2000, 2008, and 2021. You can at least validate that your model makes sense over a longer period than 1 year this way. > The odds of me coming back here at all are slim, six years from now near impossible. When you ask for feedback and react negatively to feedback that isn't positive, you're not going to improve in anything in life. Coming to reddit for feedback in 2026 is going to result in 90% of responses being 1-liners by people who just want to be part of some group-think voice. The "investing subreddit" group think is as follows: * Beating the market only matters if you can do it over a 10+ year period. * Anyone can gamble and get lucky on a year, it's not a reproducible strategy for people to follow * VT/SPY/INSERT DIVERSIFIED FUND and chill * Crypto dumb * Don't hold cash A lot of these have really good context behind them that doesn't come when people give you one-liner responses because they assume that everyone has drank the same Koolaid. But there are reasons behind it, you just need to find it.

Dense_Ostrich_6077

SPX options are classified as Section 1256 contracts under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. This grants them a blended 60/40 tax treatment, meaning 60% of your net gains are taxed at lower long-term capital gains rates and 40% at ordinary short-term income tax rates, regardless of how long you hold the contract. SPY options are treated as taxable income and don't get this treatment. Typically if you are sizing an SPY trade with over $1k of capital, the equivalent SPX option is superior for these reasons 

Soffatjockis

I'm not sure just a black leather jacket will do it for the CEO of SPY on Wednesday... The stakes are higher now. I think a full leather dress is needed this time.

No-Improvement3164

Who’s holding the 300k of OI on SPY 10/16 525p and 150k OI on the 425p?

git0ffmylawnm8

I'm down 79% YTD trading SPY options. So this is probably more viable than whatever the fuck I'm doing

hayleybts

My SPY calls better print tmrw, no fcking bad news

financiallythriving

Gap up on SPY in 3 hours right

Creepy-Fennel-852

But who knows how that goes, never thought I’d see SPY, USO, and GLD all be green on the same days 🤣

Sufficient_Habit5091

So for almost all of history, buywrite (and their mathematically equivalent selling put strategies) tend to just straight up lose to the underlying. For obvious reasons... you are selling the upside but have all the downside still. The compensation is over an entire market cycle you have higher Sharpe ratios typically. Also interestingly, IV continues to remain elevated recently without much actual volatility. Here's 3 month returns of buywrite vs. underlying on SPY and QQQ, I threw in JEPI as well which is a professional actively managed vol selling strat: https://i.imgur.com/uxqFg6q.png Everything else 6 month and longer it falters: https://i.imgur.com/uxqFg6q.png

Many_Tip_3973

SPY 770+ open

ballzstreetwets

I want SPY to open up 10 points so I can yolo 0dte puts and make 40k for the day. No sideways $hit please 🙏

Hellmale

Holding SPY $772 puts, TSLA $377.5 puts, JETS $30.5 puts, MRNA $80 puts😝

ShittyUsernane1222

if SPY randomly had an +100% day how would wsb react?

Tough_Bug_783

Black-Scholes doesn’t generate the prices or the main gamma map on the site. Prices, trades, quotes and Greeks come from the live feed. The feed’s Greeks drive the walls and exposure map; we only use Black-Scholes for the gamma-flip curve and vanna/charm. That’s appropriate for European-style SPX. For SPY, QQQ and single names, those specific calculations are approximations—not the whole site. OI is prior-close; the tape and CVD are live. Dealer positioning is an estimate, and we say that in the methodology. =D

Designer-Salt-3119

Approaching September, the worst months for SPY. One of those since everyone believes in it, it will happen sort of thing

DavidLeeBroth

SPY gap ip

Fbgm26

For a month or two, I might manually observe few things, but no guarantees. I’m 2 years in. I collect millions of data points per day. I’ve csv market data in from the past 40 years to when i started it. I’m not going to go great detail about what i do. But i may be able to add something if i run it alongside and run comparison. Time is my constraint with my own work. What id use is you **gamma flip, call/put wall, CVD, confluence state, actual SPY behavior** Then compare those observations against my own. **modeled gamma/delta, SPY structure, volatility framework, option-chain behavior, and cross cross-asset confirmation. Calendar events, news, etc etc. I’ve built something similar albeit very different. Because dealer position flip points can only be essentially guessed, and their probability is not something I weight unless my chart reads can confirm obvious mechanical flow, they become just reference point for me, weighted. So I may run it as a comparison to look for blind spots. Side by side If i find the time. I’ll DM you the results of any findings, no guarantees. But there’s some problems which you acknowledge, and that transparency is 👍** This could expose something valuable either way. To us both. If you repeatedly identify inflection points that my framework doesn’t, and vice versa **we can investigate why**. If my system catches deterioration while yours remains bullish because its OI-based gamma structure is stale, **that’s equally valuable**. And if both independently converge at the same level while VIX1D/flow/cross-asset confirm it, that’s a much stronger observation than either model alone. One other thing I really like is your scoring methodology is falsifiable. A call wall only gets scored if tested, must be reached within 0.1%, and price must close back below it; equivalent rules exist for put walls, king node, expected move and regime persistence. You publish wins and misses. That’s substantially better than retrospectively drawing levels and declaring victory. Currently I just use one of the many subscription based gex/dex sites, which has no api, but they have discussed potentially. So I don’t use against my research model, just for intraday observation of my own. I do find this an interesting side project, currently I do not have the time but I’m book marking. Thanks

financiallythriving

SPY +1% is more probable than SPY -1% Monday

JackORoses

I think NVDA is primed to pump. that will juice the narrative and pull the rest of the AI trade with it and SPY along. Last week was the dump to push into the next leg up, with NVDA leading the way, moving towards $250. I think bonds will settle down. I also think it's about time for another round of rumors of rumors of a peace deal MOU.

JackORoses

SPY gap up to 770 when the market opens tonight

anonymous_ghost-1

Dump, pump, calls through the walls, puts to the ground. No oil shortages, but oil price keep climbing. $ going down as intended by 🥭 But whatever SPY almost flat.

beargambogambo

Started with $500 last week. Got it up to $6.7k so far with SPY FDs. 👀

No_Presentation9490

DJT, just like George Bush, is the perfect patsy for economic reset and why he was installed in the first place. if he bails out SPY, everyone will just blame him and not the people pulling the strings

Legendary-Lemon

SPY is surprisingly good at repositioning itself.

No_Presentation9490

it's too big a component of SPY, if nvidia customers default the us government will bail nvidia out. you think it can't happen but no one thought 2008 bailouts would happen

sanumala

Backtested this on 8,447 days of SPY. Then I shuffled the moon labels randomly 2,000 times. The random shuffles produced a wider spread than the actual moon 54% of the time. https://preview.redd.it/cop0hrtqd4lh1.png?width=1700&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa3d287564a7fc22238c0545e9633cc4d0e021dd Congratulations, the moon is worse at this than a coin.

PatientNo7361

SPY 800C Mon

MrGrampton

SPY 500 by EoW Source: SPY Call at 800 by EoW

ShittyUsernane1222

it would be funny if NVDA fails its profit estimates and then has such an large price spike that SPY goes to 900 overnight and liquidates NVDA bers.

Neel_Crashkari

I'm buying 90DTE SPY puts at 700

beargambogambo

Don’t be a little bitch. Buy SPY FDs

DysphoriaGML

SPY returned 3,133% furing the ame perior lol

Jerikolol

weekend tech 100 is down only -0.03% lmao. How much is SPY down?

Valkorion335786

I bought a $54 pack of MTG trading cards and pulled $800 words of cards This is bullish for SPY

Capital_Ad3296

>For a correlation to be valid for investing, there must be a logical driver. Gravitational pull or the light reflected off the moon has no bearing on corporate earnings, interest rates, tech innovation, or inflation—the actual forces that drive SPY.

GoZukkYourself

SPY? I imagine these companies are already in the S&P 500.

Guh-reat55

What's SPY opening at on monday?

stonksf

Bruh I am just chilling in SPY rn 😂 dodging the volatility

PoppaBurgundy3

My downfall came when the Iran war started and I was doing 0DTE SPY plays. Lost 20K and switched to doing earnings plays to make it back and haven’t looked back since making it back. Can’t recommend earnings plays on volatile stocks in tech/AI/semiconductor sectors enough

hftrobo9285

!banbet SPY 200 3d

Happy-n-Healthy

My portfolio is 75% real estate, 15% T bills and 10% SPY. Am I diversified?

No_Presentation9490

nothing is safe in a crash except cash. you buy BRKB after the dust settles. when BRKB recovers sooner than SPY, you sell BRKB and buy SPY. this is what every serious trader with no contractual obligation to stay invested does

Skyland002

Most useful comment in the thread, thanks. You’re right the SPX/SPY space is saturated and “cheaper” is a weak pitch — I’m not going to win as clone #13 or by undercutting an $80 API. The futures-proxy angle is interesting but I’ll be straight — I trade 0DTE SPX, not futures, so RTY/GC via IWM/GLD isn’t something I could speak to honestly or build well right now. Good idea, just not my lane(possibly a future addition to the app if requested). Your point about proving the edge is the one that landed. Right now I don’t have that track record, and levels alone are a commodity. That’s the gap I’d need to close before this is worth anyone’s money — not more features. Appreciate the straight talk.

-medicalthrowaway-

It’s called consolidation. These key levels (\_00) tend to attract (and deflect) movement They are “psychological” levels of support and resistance but price also stays at those levels as sort of ‘safe havens’ Once it’s determined that price is leaving consolidation and those psychological key levels, volatility is going to pick up until it finds another “safe haven” It’s interesting that those psychological levels are so prominent, showing just how wrapped up in our emotions/psyche humans are There was never a -11% day open to close on SPY when it was around 500, though, so this data is BS

d33p7r0ubl3

VariationSeparate had regards buying SPY 180p

Skyland002

Fair hits, Ill concede somethings because you are right. On naive vs real GEX: what I’ve built is OI-based gamma levels with a standard dealer-sign assumption — so yes, “naive” GEX by your definition, same category as the strike-plot levels the big providers show to everyone. I’m not claiming real-time dealer flow / HIRO-style positioning — that needs the OPRA firehose and whole-book modeling, which I know I can’t do cheaply or well, so I’m not pretending to. Where I’d push back: I’m not a dev cosplaying as a trader. I trade 0DTE SPX — iron flies, BWBs — and I already use gamma regimes and walls in my own process. This started as a tool for how I actually trade. So the honest offer isn’t “cheaper real-time GEX.” It’s clean, honest OI-based levels — walls, flip, regime — for 0DTE SPY/QQQ, priced for retail, with no pretense that it’s institutional flow data. If that’s useful to people, great. If OI-based levels are useless to you specifically, totally fair — different tool for a different trader.

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▼ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** | $759.00 (below) | $765.72 | -0.9% | Aug 24, 9:29 PM |

Faxie9

!banbet SPY 759 2D

Cool-Run-245

0dte options: SPY or QQQ opens red losses 2 to 3% from open price (good movement for single trading session). Then at 11:30am eastern there hasn’t been a real bounce down 3% from open at that point. You come in get calls and bet on a complete V if it works 5 to 10x your money. The further there is no real bounce the less of a bounce you need let’s say it’s 1:30 eastern down 3% now you only need a 1 to 2% pull up for a nice juice gain. Complete gamble you call it wrong and you lose everything.

orcassharks

It’s super bearish every weekend and then green shreks Monday shut them up. Until next weekend. They’ve been at it since SPY was 380

DressPrestigious7088

Buffet missed the entire bull market. He’s not smart. Hes only relevant because he bought hundreds of 1000s of SPY shares in the 60s for the price of a strawberry.

afishinacar

SPX spreads atm 0DTE is probably as close as you can get. The range between max profit and max loss is so narrow that unless SPY is exactly flat from when you buy in you’re either doubling up or losing it all. Not exactly 50/50 because of fees and betting bullish usually nets a bit less than 2x, but pretty damn close.

olmsteadsgarden

0DTE but smart. I do 10:30-11:00AM Eastern window only. Only $SPY. Watch $VIX for market stability. Don’t trade the news or politic tweets. A successful day of trading (hell a week of successful trading) might not be touching the market at all. Look at your P/L over a month vs a day. You will lose some but hopefully make more. Keep a journal with what worked and didn’t. You will make mistakes as we all do. The goal is to have atleast a 51% chance your bet lands. The best strategy is to both invest in your restraint and protect your portfolio from emotions.

SnS2500

\> To recap, these are all the same basket of stocks, No, they are not. MTUM and QUAL are large and midcaps. Even then, MTUM has outperformed SPY for the past decade while QUAL has underperformed. What you showed with those two actually is large caps outperformed midcaps for the past ten years... and by a lot too. (SPY +313%, MDY +180%) SPY's "factor" is "large caps in the S&P 500 by market weight". For the past decade that has beaten equal weight and pure value factors by a lot, but it is illogical to compare MTUM and QUAL to SPY. If you use SPMO, which only draws from the S&P500, it is up 516% for the past decace compared to SPY's +313%. So instead of the wrong conclusion you drew, the correct one is... some smart beta options will outperform, others will underperform.

jayyfo

I mean you can have theta (the decay) work for you and not against you using different strategies, honestly I am shocked that you have not learned this yet with this large of an account, You have basically been rolling a large rock up a hill but I'm surprised it didn't crush you, I worked as a previously registered investment advisor and stock broker before my back has gotten so bad with idiopathic scoliosis and no solution and not a candidate for surgery that I'm waiting for disability income, and I will never be able to do a full time regular job so this is it for me , I've learned for over 12years but because of poverty mindset I never broke out I really want to encourage you that if I was well enough where you are dear God put some away with some for of target date retirement fund or VOO or SPY (ofc once a viable dip presents itself) but please dear God don't keep trading single legged options with this size of money, at least without learning more about every strategy you can do with this, even with smaller sums You do realize pattern day trader rules are gone? I would immediately take out 100k or more and just start start an account with 2k God speed! Check out theo trade with don Kaufman he's one of the creators of think or swim and teaches , even his free weekend videos are amazing and can get you more curious about how you might squeak better edge out with this size of an account without risking so frickin much

whttevrr

I'm not saying, I'm asking. It appears to me everyone says wait 15 minutes and mark the candle. but when I do that it seems irrelevant. There is a combination of news and data flowing in the morning that sometimes means that you need to just ride the momentum wave in whatever direction the ticker is moving. Beginning of the month with SPY moving up for a couple days meant wait a few minutes and then start buying calls and then sell them a few minutes later. But that only works for so long. What do you do when the markets are in the churn? It seems to me that NVDA and SPY typically do a little morning swing a couple days a week. I saw this 'strategy' promoted and thought it made sense. I have been trading options just long enough to know I need more information. I would like to be able to make a little every now and then to supplement any income I have. This seems a lot like what I normally try to do. I just need consistency. What consistently works for you? I usually wait for a reversal and play the trend. But it does not have consistency for me. Mostly because instead of cutting my losses right away I double down and fiddle with my stop losses when it doesn't work. I was hoping I would get some pointers on reversal trades and while a couple responses have been helpful and sincere, it seems a few blank profiles would rather just BS about whatever. Which is cool, I mean, internet points are still points, right? But mostly I am looking for reliable entry and exit strategies on trend reversal trading.

financiallythriving

SPY -3% on Monday and I’ll buy a Tesla Y model to stick it up my ass

IWishIwasAwhale1

!banbet SPY 755 3d

Iamhappilyconfused

Honestly I don't care whether SPY goes up or down, as long as volume picks back up again

harrison_wintergreen

This is interesting and I applaud investing your own money for the test. However, the 'beware' in the title is misguided. - you didn't lose money with any of those ETFs, at least in nominal terms. - you didn't know in 2017 what would happen by 2026. - that last ~9 years don't predict the next 10 years, and the last ~9 years may or may not be typical. from 2003 to 2013, RSP outperformed SPY by a wide margin. https://imgur.com/a/v4Uow9Z - SPY is not necessarily an appropriate control or benchmark for all those ETFs. for example QUAL uses the MSCI USA Sector Neutral Quality Index as a benchmark, not the S&P 500. Comparing every investment on the planet to SPY/VOO is a common error I see on reddit. - as others mentioned, some of the ETFs may have smaller drawdowns -- which certain investors might prefer. some of those ETFs might also have higher dividend income potential, which is also a perfectly valid strategy for those who want it.

No_Stand5622

No sex until SPY 10% correction

Fit_Equal6932

You will need to have the infrastructure to listen to the OPRA data feed which is a multiple terabyte data stream per day in real time to establish whether the trades were a buy or a sell to an MM. It will still be fuzzy at best since most trading is inside the spread and you won’t know it the MM lifted that quote or some retail inside the spread order bought it. For anything that is in SPY/QQQ the MM positioning is based on the total book they hold across all tickers and looking simply at any of these in isolation gives you nothing useful. So unless you can replicate the MM book market wide and then also have a feel for whether they are over/under hedged based on their estimate of the stock valuation these GEX models are completely useless. I think you won’t even be able to get the step 1 of listening to the OPRA feed done in a cost effective way to make your service cheap. Forget the rest of the challenges.

ugh_you_swine

Yup - an ETF like VGT (Vanguard's Tech) absolutely destroyed compared to SPY.

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Kachowxboxdad (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SPY** ▼ | $765.18 → $763.00 | -0.3% | 1d | Lost |

financiallythriving

SPY -2% on Monday and I’ll stick two watermelons up my ass

enc-nyc

Sent wife to buy some steaks and she came back w/ some tofu & canned beans instead. SPY to 800 on Monday.

financiallythriving

It recommend me SPY 600p 0dte on Monday

financiallythriving

Tariffs on maple syrup SPY -20%

BlueGridApparel

What’s your strategy for scalping SPY and QQQ? Do you just wait for whichever way it’s trending for that day?

sck178

In my expert opinion, SPY will keep going up until it doesn't. This is not investment advise, but also it is.