SPY

x7_omega

Dude... How should I put it? Here: "good morning, slept well?" In the last however many years, Pelosi became a meme for her "investing talent". Now Trump and his team of talented investors openly manipulate markets, with Trump even giving tradable tips now and then. Yesterday near close, SPX+SPY was grinding on critical support, below which there is a 20% drop. Grinding hard, vol spiking, market was about to drop into close. And suddenly, an article pops up saying that China is talking Iran into opening Hormuz, based on anonymous sources. No Chinese sources, nothing - just anonymous sources. And market bounced hard, saved again. Again, as the day before, for the same reasons, Trmp came out with an idiotic notion of navy escorting tankers through Hormuz - a drone and missile kill zone with zero probability of safe passage. But market bounced really hard from below that support - on a lie that a 10yo can see through. And prior to that, right before Iran got bombed, Polymarket paid out to some prophetic people who knew it would happen just before it happened. This is normalised now. Insider trading, open manipulation - everything that would end up in court, now is a norm or a policy. Why bother with all the rules and such, if they know this show is near the end, and the only right move is squeezing maximum profit out of it while it stil works. Since that is a norm and policy, you can only do the same, when you can.

yaboyay

!banbet SPY 690 13h

AdJolly2618

With that being said if you full port SPY 690 calls you’ll 300% your account

kananishino

SPY to 690 then back to dumping again

UnivalveX

SPY back to 687 today lmao

mneymaker

Need some US pumpin today both oil and SPY <3 God bless bulls

yaboyay

Hope y’all know that the U.S. treasury shorting oil futures **is**, in fact, bullish. When the economy gets liquidated they’ll **HAVE** to print money. SPY $1,500 eom.

x2eliah

As the ticker board clearly shows, SPAM went up way more than SPY.

SmurfStop

SPY overnight chart spells out MM in 3D

ChairmanMeow1986

\*Actual specific advice at the bottom on what I would do, but read through this first please. You just need set a buy to close full stop. Listen to DonkStonx and stop worrying about decreasing your 'current cash level,' as it really doesn't seem like you know what you are doing. Selling deep OTM naked options might seem less risky than buying 0dte's, but this is what blows up accounts and get's you margin called if you don't know what you are doing. A. I get your impulse to not loss money and the risk might seem low (and really probably is) if you are just looking at the DTE's and Strikes. You could do nothing and likely walk away (possibly a bit psychologically scared) with the premiums in your pockets. That's scenario A. The problem is your risk/reward, especially under these macro conditions (I'm not even particularly bearish); we are 6-days into a war in the middle-east, there's tariffs uncertainty, jobs report tomorrow, VIX is elevated (ranging freely above 20), there's the funding fight for DHS on ICE reform, and Republican senator Tom Tillis on the Senate Banking committee has vowed to block any nomination to the Fed board until the investigation of Powell is dropped. B. I'm taking your cash level (position), purchasing power (BP-buying power), and your explained of positions I'm going to assume a portfolio that is about 100k (give or take 15%) in cash/equities. So the real risk to you that I see (specifically because you are posting this here) is that SPY retreats 3-5% suddenly or over the next week and you close out all your positions in a panic only to watch SPY bounce back over the next month. That often leads to revenge trading and over trading as you try to 'make your money back.' You have to (you needed it, your family was depending on you, you we're saving for a house, it's your retirement!-how could this happen, it didn't if I fix it). If you loss money it's gone, you know have a different amount of money and you have to decide how you are moving forward. C. The real risk and probably why you are getting edgy, especially with those 3/16 one if you sold it recently. How a 15% would effect you margin requirements and pose a danger to your portfolio. If it did before 3/16... well hat is how margin calls happen even when puts are still OTM. If SPY dropped 15% and VIX jumped to 35–40 overnight, you'd probably be nearing a 25k loss if you'd be facing forced liquidation of all open option positions and forced selling of equities (likely at the worst possible time) if you couldn't deposit margin requirements in the brokerage. Realistically how this type of thing looks to people; the market drops 3% tmrw than 3% Monday, you can't believe it the Market is wrong, you're not selling now. Than it's down 9% over night before 3/16. Doubt it will happen, but this is the risk you chose to manage. \------------ \*Specific advice (still think you should close it all out tmrw as I do not think you should be trading options): 1. At least close out those 3/16 ones immediately, that is putting undue stress (risk) on you're entire portfolio due to scenario C. Risk remains, but with the other contracts (DTE/Strikes) you are in a much better spot. If you didn't sell the other's perfectly in Nov/Dec you probably got shit premium on risk honestly, so I'd just be inclined to close everything out as soon as possible. I might give the longer contracts time if recover from an extreme dip, but I'd likely just sell the both if SPY dipped 5% and just accept I might have bought at the top. Again, really I'd say just close it all out as soon as you can. 2. I don't recommend it for these trades, but there could be trades when it made sense to convert them to defined risk bull put spreads by buying at the same DTE with a lower strike to your sells. Does not make sense here unless you just want to cap risk and to exit more favorably over time. 3. I don't know the exact details, but I'd probably just call all contracts open a failed trade and close it all out if I found myself here though. I'd accept I traded poorly and lost money, than move on under the reality that essential reality.

dljmonkeyboiz

Wait till Wednesday afternoon, load 1DTE SPY puts for Thursday … profit.

hroaks

People with PhD's in economics spend their whole lives refining lists of market indicators and they don't beat the market just buy SPY and call it a night

Skulldrey

Mostly just tired of the waiting Up or down make me feel alive again, SPY

No_Skirt_4689

Tomorrow’s the day, right guys? SPY $700 for real this time.  Right?

RipWhenDamageTaken

USD still down from 1 year ago. VXUS still outperforms SPY for the last 1 year by 10%. What’s your definition of “rallied **hard**”?

skarfbeaulonee

In America it's still okay to unalive others for financial gainz. We must think of our precious economy for god's sake! That's why the market will never crash. SPY calls it is.

MyCupO

No need to worry this IMHO … OP seems to be very conservative to sell SPY puts so I don’t think there is much risk, just don’t know how to use capital more efficiently.

8thSt

First question is: If you’re worried about these, what do you know that we don’t? These are pretty damn far of the money. If SPY drops below 555 by 3/16 we all got some really big issues going on. But the correct answer is Buy to Close to just be done. Only comment is: if you can’t answer your own question then you don’t need to mess with options.

vendeep

I did something similar back testing for SPY. The trailing stops end up cutting my profits rather than cutting my losses.

Clear-West747

SPY

InquisitorCOC

USD has rallied **hard** during the current Iran War Equity markets in East Asia, Europe, India, and MENA (ex Israel) region have all crashed at same time, while $SPY is barely 2% off recent highs US is the largest oil and NG producer in the world by a wide margin, and has been steadily increasing its net energy exports since 2020 Combined with its unparalleled military and technology, USA is by far the safest place for capital ------- China has a lot going for it, such as its unparalleled manufacturing capacity, but it's severely lacking in some areas, and is going through some major internal upheavals at moment (purges in its military leadership, severe housing bust and financial crisis)

patmccock86

I like to imagine that instead of life alert, Orange wears a SPY monitor around his neck that beeps if there’s a single red candle

Big-Kangaroo-7145

Check your 3/16 positions ASAP. If you can get out for a small loss or break even, just pull the trigger. You're staring down $111k of underlying exposure with 10 days left. Paying a tiny bit of premium to close them is peanuts compared to the headache of being assigned on 200 shares of SPY that you can't afford to hold.

IndependentUsual7444

SPY is down less than 1% from last Friday and oil is up 20%. Insanely bullish

SmurfStop

Middle east thinking about pulling investment from US. Will SPY need a crash cart tomorrow?

xbitxfatxstonkx

Bro. I been buying the SPY dips for weeks 😞 where's 700 damnit.

Wowmuchrya

And that means SPY will -2% tomorrow

MAkrbrakenumbers

Honestly wonder if SPY is a good investment at almost 700 per share. I honestly doubt we’ll get over that barrier this year unless the market expects it to hit over 1000+. Otherwise the profit possibility’s have really been lost. At this point it’s almost just a pseudo-hedge against inflation, unless a split is possible I think we hover here for a while.

lovelylvyne

today’s play: call SPY at open, close after pump, open put waiting for weekend black swan https://preview.redd.it/uk5msi8bdcng1.jpeg?width=1204&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3e64d478b1cad3f44d17f2449245f33065ce0ee

xShiftfaced

SPY $690 EoW

StonksInvesteur

Let’s ride SPY to ZERO

iamwhiskerbiscuit

The risk with OP being forced to buy 100 shares of SPY for $550 is that all of his friends start asking if they can borrow some money.

Cockballzz

SPY futes in the asian session has been dropping 83% of the time since December

Rare-ish_Birb

If you bought wine and crispy grocery store roast chicken, AND you knew tomorrow's closing SPY price, would you: 1. Eat the skin, or... 2. Have more chardonnay. 15 seconds

DonkStonx

I’ve got to ask why? You mention to ‘free up this account’. But why? Do you need to withdraw cash? To you want to redeploy capital in other stuff? You have 3/16 $555 puts. Those are at $22/contract currently. There are 7 trading days until those expire. Spy is at $682, meaning that your puts are $127 or 18.7% otm. SPY dropping 18.7% in 7 trading days would be, a bit of a thing. The fact that you’re worried about that is very impressive. The fact that you tied up capital to make $44 is even more impressive. There’s such an intense level of stupidity in this post and play that I’m genuinely gobsmacked. To fix this - buy your retard ass 12/17/27 puts back asap. The bid/ask spread is fine so you won’t lose much due to illiquidity. Then buy your 7/21 $495p back. They likely would be okay in the end but would likely swell significantly due to iv expansion if a downturn happens. Your $555p are fine. Keep your $44. If you want to redeploy capital somewhere else, buy them back and do so. Honestly you absolutely should not be using options at this time in the slightest. You clearly have zero idea about anything and I have no idea how you got approved for options trading. This would be like trying to direct a movie and not knowing what a camera even is, but you’ve heard of movies, and liked robocop so figured you’d give it a shot. I want you to really listen, I’m not being hyperbolic or extra hard on you. I’m being very genuine, you are putting yourself and your finances in danger by doing stuff that you do not adequately understand the mechanisms of. And not even at a very basic level at all. So please, stop, go cash gang, wait for a dippy, and buy various vanguard ETFs.

Hwangoutpltr

Ligma pattern forming on SPY

Outside_Empty

Need to triple my money fast. Somebody give me an investment vehicle that returns 300%. SPY 0DTE’s seems like my best bet here

BeautifulAuthor9167

Seeking moderate paths for your SPY puts is smart. To preserve your $11.9k cash, have you considered rolling them?

Mysterious-Device-53

Trading with SPY

abused-throwawayy

my whole life bitches been acting like Iran is one bad day from blowing up the world and they cant even hit SPY FML

DriftWoodBarrel

SPY 700 doesn't really matter.

FutureSage

I better wake up to SPY +1% or I’ll be very upset 😠.

CreepyBoysenberry281

Boy this year has been crazy. SPY down almost .09% since Jan 1st 

---Right--Tackle---

SPY 700 wen

DiamondG331

There are many brokerages with no fees. Like Robinhood, MooMoo, WeBull. If you do decide to trade these spreads you should definitely open an account with no commissions. I already racked up over $400 in fees with Schwab last month and it was barely 1/5 of my total trades. Lastly, if you trade SPY with $1 wide spreads, you receive more of a credit. In other words if you did a $1 wide condor you’d get say $.44 per contract. If you traded SPX/XSP you maybe get $1.90 which is about $.38 per $1. Even with the tax benefits, you’ll still make more money with SPY. And the spreads will be $.01-$.02 to open and close which makes a difference as well.

Theipodrookie

!banbet SPY 688 1D

jda823

What are these, SPY gains for ants?

hermeskino715

What bs is pumping SPY AH?

dyler13

SPY literally down tree fiddy at close and yall be wildin. Wake me up when SPY hits $660

Aplhacuck

I did this today then 4 minutes later SPY dumppppppped, would have had a +$10k day instead of a +$2k day. Important lesson there as well though. It could have just as easily continued to climb and my stubbornness could have made today a losing day. Don’t give thought to the wins that could have been, execute and move on to tomorrow.

dyler13

Rally? SPY down tree fiddy today brah!

wallstreetbets-ModTeam

Non stock related Just saying "wow SPY calls look cheap" does not make the post market related.

LasyKuuga

Why is SPY being such a bitch then?

Solid-Season9984

Surely tomorrow's economic release will save SPY!?!?

Particular-Ask3

Probably going up because SPY goes off of vibes

Park-Geun-Hye

SPY puts 3/6 DTE?

APointAndALine

It’s going to be fake until SPY 700

spicermatthews

Good suggestion. Granted I did not trade all the possible historical trades. But I am limited as daily expirations only started May of 2022. There's only a handful of similar securities because we need options that expire every day. We need options that have high liquidity. So SPY, SPX, and QQQ are the obvious place to start. Haven't gone down the path of random sampling. Not totally sure how that would apply here. I have run the back test, iterating through all the different parameters, and the ones that shared ended up being the best results.

spicermatthews

Good catch on the SPY daily expirations. You are correct 2022. My main issue is my backtesting data only goes back 2 years. My broker is more or less free trades. Around .12 per lot per trade in regulatory fees. So I mostly ignore commissions. Something I added last night to my backtest is no trading on days where the opening range is more than $2.00. Profit was about the same but profit factor went up. Drawdown went down. Maybe that can help for the period you are talking about. In my month or so of real trading. Slippage has only been a few cents here or there. Certainly monitoring that. I might buy more data to backtest further if this continues to show fruit. Thanks for sharing. My dataset is certainly limited. I'm also a firm believer that strategies don't last forever. This might be working now, and when it starts to fail, I'll move on to a different strategy. I like to run multiple strategies at once, so it kind of doesn't matter if it fails. Just hoping to get some profit before it fails. Thanks for bringing your analysis and sharing back. This is certainly a journey, and it may or may not work in the long run.

ssferland

Fake jobs report SPY up revision jobs report down plan accordingly

ThinCrusts

SPY 675 @ open?

moorhound

Closing bell SPY plus-minus this week: Monday: +0.06% Tuesday: -0.88% Wednesday: +0.51% Today: -1.21% WSB bols: "huhuhuhu dum ber got killed this week" I guess being stupid as fuck does make you a happier person

ihopethisworksfornow

I told you guys 16 days ago that all future possibilities have been fully priced in and SPY will return to 684 for the rest of human civilization. I don’t know why you wouldn’t believe that I wasn’t 100% correct about my predictions, as I always am.

JayRoo83

SPY 690 open because we hired more janitor and hotel workers than expected

Double_Biscotti_6364

Don’t do that SPY…don’t give me hope..

NotMe357

TACO and his friends have been trying to protect SPX 6800, QQQ 600$ and SPY 680$ (They somehow don't want the market to close below that number) for months now and right now we're too close to that number so IMO there is a high possibility that we'll pump +1% tomorrow or go flat.

jda823

It seems like SPY will be the punching bag tomorrow while the DOW recovers 

WSB-mods-are-

(SPY trades flat for 23 weeks)

Erocdotusa

Can Hegseth or another goon declare victory already so we can get SPY back on track

PinealTone

You know if all the 1900s ponzi scammers invested their investors $ in a plain SPY index.. they still would have gotten away with their scam. The returns > more than the scammers "%" return promised.

btoned

Put my boy RDDT into SPY for some OOOOOOOO

Late_Company6926

Get Pahlavi in there and we see SPY at 720 within a few days

eggplant_parm827

Markets don't care. They are so forced and manipulated to V every dip and only go up. QQQ and SPY both are gonna finish green this week.

Suspicious-Sir574

!banner SPY 685 1d

Inner_Difficulty0101

!banbet SPY 690 1d

---Right--Tackle---

#forever SPY 680 is crazy work

hallett21

!banbet SPY -2% 1d

hallett21

“Anyone who does business with those dirty Chinese or Russian commies will be considered an enemy of the state. -🥭 SPY rockets to 725

taxman1922

Lunch money account on Monday $157. Today we’re sitting at $2.2k. Thank you SPY and wartime swings.

jda823

I tried to go all cash. But I put in what I thought was a fair price for SPY PUTs and it got picked up right before close. So we get to watch crude prices all tomorrow morning again. Yay

Happy-Champion1661

Ber won battle today but will they get assaulted tomorrow SPY 690eow

RoyalFail6

Soldiers are fighting for the freedom of pedos to dance in that ballroom 🥀 - calls for SPY 700 EOM

trix_is_for_kids

Even better when you realize SPY is up nearly 150% since then

Quick_Rent_Now

SPY 685 tomorrow

throwawayainteasy

I bought SPY 3/6 $680 puts at $4.50 yesterday morning that were down to something like $3 at one point but hit my limit sell at $6 today. God, volatility like this ain't healthy for the market, but it sure is fun.

colinr813

SPY 300 basically guaranteed before this admin is done in 2029

Val44x

Find someone who loves you like SPY loves the 680s Just won’t let them go!!! True love!!!

DriftWoodBarrel

My play for tomorrow is SPY put 675 for 3/6 SPY call 690 3/13

LiamPhlegmsworth

!banbet SPY 670 24h

LadderAdmirable

!banbet SPY 672 1d

cpt_oblivious89

Be a man, kick her out now, full port on SPY calls

Voyager_15

Hey man, thank you for sharing your findings. It's always interesting to read :) I have backtested this strategy and want to make few remarks. I modeled everything as you did except I used SPX options data. First of all, we agree that 2024 was a good year for this strategy, with around 40% PoP and nice profits. 2025 is less good the PoP is around 35% and profit $ is close to 0 (note I have options data until October 2025). We also agree that Tuesdays and Thursdays degrade the performance. But here are things on which we disagree. >"*daily 0DTE SPY options only launched mid-2023*" This is not true, they started in November 2022 for SPY and May 2022 for SPX. When I run the backtest from May 2022 to December 2023 the curve is falling most of the time and PoP is 32%. In other words it is losing. I have not included commissions/slippage to be as close to your test as possible but they are also important. They can literally turn a winning strategy into a losing one. It might be still that I implemented something differently than you, but just be careful

Paul_Robert_

!banbet SPY 689.9 1D

StonkaTrucks

Morning SPY calls failed, so revenge bought NVDA puts. Missed the bottom by 5 min and begrudgingly sold on the way up. So annoyed I deposited $1k and rode the wave up with NVDA and SPY calls to end the day up 25% on the account. Revenge trading works. I am doomed.

Paul_Robert_

I predict SPY 690 tomorrow. Either I'm right and I'll brag about it tomorrow, or I'm wrong and I won't acknowledge it 💀

Desmater

Give me SPY 687 tomorrow.

Capital-Resident-131

Man that false breakout was ruthless - caught me on the wrong side of a SPY call spread around the same time. watched it bounce right off support and figured we were headed up, only to get absolutely demolished when it reversed 20 minutes later. The algos seem to be hunting stops way more aggressively lately, especially during those lunch hour moves. I've started setting my stops a bit wider and using smaller position sizes because of stuff like this - rather take a smaller loss than get whipsawed out of what would've been a winner. What strikes were you playing on the puts?

RockasaurusRex

\+/-1% intraday moves everyday in SPY is wild.

markypooo7

Idk I've been burned by it already thinking there would be a recovery when SPY did but it kept going inverse so yeah idk

Val44x

Sorry BERS I decided to buy 4 million SPY shares at end of day