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Yeah, screenshot AI is useless I don't blame you. This is different. It's a live quant engine that runs actual statistical models (HMM, GARCH, Hurst, Kalman) on real-time data. It doesn't guess or 'predict.' It just reads the market's current state trending, choppy, volatile and adapts. It scales risk when the regime is stable, filters out noise, and even blocks trades when the market is behaving randomly. The quality isn't about being right. It's about knowing when not to trade. That's the part I find interesting
Post is by: denze-702 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1slpnqo/i_just_integrated_a_hidden_markov_model_hmm_for/ For a long time, my "machine" relied on static logical confluences—Trend, Structure, and Volume. While effective, these systems are inherently fragile because they assume the market exists in a single, constant state. I've just completed the integration of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to serve as the suite's primary \*\*Regime Detection\*\* layer. Here is the quantitative logic behind the shift. \--- \### The Problem with Standard Algos Most systems are "curve-fitted" to a specific past. They work until the market shifts from a low‑volatility mean‑reversion state to a high‑volatility directional expansion. By the time a standard indicator reacts, the drawdown has already begun. \--- \### The Markov Solution Instead of following price, the engine now treats the market as a mathematical \*\*Hidden State\*\*. By calculating state transition probabilities, the suite identifies which regime we are currently in: \- \*\*Steady Accumulation\*\* (low noise / low vol) \- \*\*Volatile Expansion\*\* (high momentum / high noise) \- \*\*Distribution / Pivot\*\* (exhaustion) \--- \### How this changes execution \*\*1. Dynamic Logic Gating\*\* If the HMM detects a regime transition with low confidence, the engine automatically suppresses signals. It doesn't matter how "good" a setup looks – if the regime isn't supportive, the trade is discarded. \*\*2. Asymmetric Risk Scaling\*\* The Kelly Criterion position sizing now scales based on the probability of the current regime persisting. \*\*3. Noise Filtering\*\* We use a Kalman filter combined with the Markov states to strip away "false breakouts" that occur during regime shifts. \--- \### The Benefit This isn't about finding a "holy grail" indicator. It's about building a system that understands \*\*context\*\*. We aren't optimizing for a date in history; we are optimizing for mathematical states. It's the difference between guessing where the ball will land and calculating the physics of the throw. \--- I'm curious—for those of you building in the quant space: are you still relying on multi‑timeframe confluence for regime filters, or have you moved toward more autonomous state‑space models like HMM or GMM? \*\*TL;DR:\*\* \*Added Hidden Markov Model for regime detection. System now suppresses trades during low‑confidence regime transitions, even if the setup looks good. Kelly sizing scales with regime persistence probability.\* \*Not financial advice. Just the math behind my personal system.\* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Post is by: denze-702 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1slmnev/my_quant_system_wants_to_short_sol_here_but_its/ I run a quantitative trading system that combines 16 models (Hurst, HMM, VRT, LPPL, Kalman, etc.) into a single confluence score. Right now it's showing a SHORT setup on SOL, but \*\*the system is actually filtering the trade out\*\*. Here's what's happening – and why I'm NOT taking this trade. \*\*The Setup (what the math says):\*\* | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Direction | SHORT | | Entry | $83.59 | | Stop | $84.25 (GARCH + S/R enhanced) | | Target 1 | $82.27 (2R) | | Target 2 | $81.61 (3R) | | R:R | 2.0:1 / 3.0:1 | \*\*The Problem – Why the system is BLOCKING this trade:\*\* | Issue | What the data shows | |-------|---------------------| | \*\*VRT Gate\*\* | RANDOM WALK (VR = 1.002) – Cannot reject random walk hypothesis. Trend signals suppressed. | | \*\*Confluence Score\*\* | Only 41/100 – Conflicted across timeframes (15M:43, 1H:66, 4H:35, 1D:58) | | \*\*Size Multiplier\*\* | ×0.10 – Extreme volatility/regime + counter-HTF | | \*\*HTF Cascade\*\* | BEAR but system says "counter-HTF" – conflicting signals | | \*\*kRSI\*\* | NOISY (Δ29.1) – Kalman filter lagging, suggesting chop | | \*\*Volume\*\* | Low (5/25 score) – No conviction | | \*\*EMA Stack\*\* | Bearish, but price is BELOW EMA200 – that's actually bearish alignment, yet the system still blocks due to other factors | \*\*The Verdict from my system:\*\* ❌ SIGNAL FILTERED \*\*What this means:\*\* The math says "yes, the setup looks short, but the broader market regime is RANDOM WALK right now. Don't trust the trend signals. Don't take this trade." \*\*Why I'm posting this:\*\* Anyone can post their winning trades. I'm posting a trade my system WANTS to take but is smart enough to reject. That's the value of quantitative filters. \*Not financial advice. This is my personal system output – currently in RANDOM WALK regime, so I'm sitting on my hands.\* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Post is by: SquallLionheart and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/u_SquallLionheart/comments/1r1wx21/my_journey_into_automated_crypto_trading/ I have been trading crypto for 4-5 years now, I have passed multiple prop firms, multiple times, all eventually leading to ruin! I realized the weakest link in the chain most often human psychology! I decided, "It has to be better to automate this"... I already had a background in Javascript, I enjoyed tinkering and building stuff. I learned python as I started exploring yfinance and more importantly ta-lib (to calculate all the indicators I typically used in TradingView). This was a fun experience and slowly exposed me to AI prediction models, Random Forest Classification, LSTM etc. I trained models on years of daily candles (plus indicators), and began predicting tomorrow candle direction. This gave me a MASSIVE false-sense of genius (LOL). I wrote a nodejs application to call the python app, get prediction and execute trade on Bybit if confidence was high. Problem was, models were trained on ALL the datapoints (indicators, OHLCV), many of which were pointless unless normalized. After few weeks my balance was dust. New idea.... Just take all that data (pricing+indicators) for the past x days for BTC, and throw it into chatGPT and ask it to find high-confidence trades. This actually worked well for a time, but really suffered during choppy days/weeks... As, for the most part, it was giving me trade setups every day.   The more prescriptive I got in my prompt(s) to chatGPT, the more I realized I could probably just program exactly what I wanted. I tried removing AI completely and defined an SMC strategy with limited success. I reintroduced AI, with more of an "agentic" flow (not truely agentic though). I used a riskManager, portfolioManager, Trader (creates signal), Executor (makes trades)... This had amazing short-term results (due entirely to large position size), but ultimately rinsed my account after a string of losses. Which the continuing burden of *not-yet-being-a-millionaire* I turned my focus away from executing and back to data - I started building out the python data feed into a stand alone data API, storing historic data in supabase and serving up pricing and indicators. The most recent addition is a Hidden Markov Model (per ticker) to detect the current market regime and give it a score 0-100 (0-30 Bearish, 70-100 Bullish, 30-70 Chop).  Made a good portion available for free, eating the \~$20/month infra costs myself. Plan: when I turn back on autotrading with strict behavior depending on market regime, autotrading will help pay infra. **I'd love to hear:** * Has anyone else tried HMM for crypto? * What useful data features are missing? * Your own trading bot war stories! If you want to check out sample use case apps, they are in my Github Anyway thanks for coming to my TedTalk, any questions let me know... :) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Think a very interesting one is cxo (CargoX).topics; digitalisation of world trade / blockchain document transfer.. One of a few tokens which has a fiat inflow into the token which was earned outside crypto space. So it is not so much linked to general crypto markets, but to business success. U can check here; Cargox.io And for statistics here; https://cargox-tracker.eu/ Pros; low market cap, deflationary supply through buyback and burn / optional U can be a CargoX Relayer and get passive income (a bit of initial investment needed in cxo token 😅) unknown and unhyped / potential growth / stable and reputable customers (Egypt use it on a mandatory base/ VAE / Abu Dhabi Customs /HMM / etc.) Cons; communication of the team / dex only (liq. Is okay though)
HMM That was then, we have survived
lmao, the fucking irony of your statement Nah dude you’re just dumb I’m literally saying how people should grow their money by investing in businesses, **such as people who want to retire,** *which in turn allows money to keep circulating in the economy,* and mr.bigbrain over here mockingly exclaims “BuT wHat aBouT peOple whO wAnt tO RetiRe? sHoulD tHey nOt bE AlloWEd to sAvE or shOuLd tHeY jUst kEEp wAstiNg tHeiR paYcHeck aWay UNtil tHey die?? HMM??” lmao, yeah you belong in this sub
uhm market chaos, tarriffs on our neighbors, tarriffs on GPUs, cold war with China officially on, HMM WHO KNOWS WHY??
CargoX ist eine Firma, die eBOLs (electronic Bill of lading) anbietet. Das sind Zoll- und Besitzdokumente, die für jede internationalen Container-Verschiffung verwendet werden. Bisher papierhaft, jetzt dank CargoX auch auf der neutralen und fälschungssicheren Blockchain. Zeit- und Geldersparnis für die Reeder und die Exporteure von Gütern liegen zwischen 80-90%. Die Firma und die Technologie sind von den gängigen Handelsorganisationen und Versicherungen offiziell anerkannt. Mit jedem Dokument, dass den Exporteur ca 10 USD kostet, werden für 30cent CXO-Token geburnt und für 30 Cent tokenholder bezahlt, die als Relayer ihre Token „gestaked“ haben und damit die neutrale Blockchain darstellen. Der Rollout dieses Real World Produktes hat bereits begonnen: in Ägypten ist es seit 2 Jahren im Einsatz, verpflichtend für alle Exporte. Vereinigte Arabische Emirate folgen in 2025, der 8.größte Container-Reeder der Welt (HMM aus Südkorea) führt es auch ein. Mit vielen Ländern ist man in Verhandlungen über ein Rollout auch dort. Es dauert nur leider lange (meist Jahre), da es eben staatliche Stellen sind… Aber alle großen Länder haben sich verpflichtet, in den nächsten 10 Jahren ihren Handel zu digitalisieren. Vom Prinzip her ein NoBrainer: es macht finanziell Sinn, viele werden diese Neuheit nutzen in den nächsten 2-10 Jahren, CXO ist durch die burns deflationär. Konkurrenz ist zwar auch da, aber CargoX kann auf den Live-trackrecord in Ägypten verweisen. Herausforderungen: schwache Liquidität (Uniswap), Token ist unbekannt und wird von Firma nicht beworben (da Crypto bei staatlichen Stellen Vorurteile auslösen kann, wegen Teufelszeug und so…) Pro: Sehr eingefleischte TG Community
CargoX ist eine Firma, die eBOLs (electronic Bill of lading) anbietet. Das sind Zoll- und Besitzdokumente, die für jede internationalen Container-Verschiffung verwendet werden. Bisher papierhaft, jetzt dank CargoX auch auf der neutralen und fälschungssicheren Blockchain. Zeit- und Geldersparnis für die Reeder und die Exporteure von Gütern liegen zwischen 80-90%. Die Firma und die Technologie sind von den gängigen Handelsorganisationen und Versicherungen offiziell anerkannt. Mit jedem Dokument, dass den Exporteur ca 10 USD kostet, werden für 30cent CXO-Token geburnt und für 30 Cent tokenholder bezahlt, die als Relayer ihre Token „gestaked“ haben und damit die neutrale Blockchain darstellen. Der Rollout dieses Real World Produktes hat bereits begonnen: in Ägypten ist es seit 2 Jahren im Einsatz, verpflichtend für alle Exporte. Vereinigte Arabische Emirate folgen in 2025, der 8.größte Container-Reeder der Welt (HMM aus Südkorea) führt es auch ein. Mit vielen Ländern ist man in Verhandlungen über ein Rollout auch dort. Es dauert nur leider lange (meist Jahre), da es eben staatliche Stellen sind… Aber alle großen Länder haben sich verpflichtet, in den nächsten 10 Jahren ihren Handel zu digitalisieren. Vom Prinzip her ein NoBrainer: es macht finanziell Sinn, viele werden diese Neuheit nutzen in den nächsten 2-10 Jahren, CXO ist durch die burns deflationär. Konkurrenz ist zwar auch da, aber CargoX kann auf den Live-trackrecord in Ägypten verweisen. Herausforderungen: schwache Liquidität (Uniswap), Token ist unbekannt und wird von Firma nicht beworben (da Crypto bei staatlichen Stellen Vorurteile auslösen kann, wegen Teufelszeug und so…) Pro: Sehr eingefleischte TG Community
hahahahaha calm down bear. the top???? TOP????? HAHAHAHAHA please PLEASE be quiet. Quiet now. Bear. LOOK AT BITCOIN. WHAT IS IT? HMM?????? WHAT IS IT????? yup. Its at 61k........ why??????? CUZ WE ARE WINNING SO STOP!!!!! You sad bear.... sad sad..... sad ..... bear..... sad.....
If U take THE TIME to look into IT, then dat would be GREAT!!! They claim to only git THE MINER FEE, HMM!!! : (!!!
And with names like HMM, PLOP and JEB