ACA

SpOoKy_EdGaR

You said ACA premiums go up massively. I’m saying those are the ones estimated to go 20%. “OK”

discgman

ACA is separate from company health plans. But even with 20% increases in those that is insane and will hurt consumers hard.

SpOoKy_EdGaR

ACA changes are eliminating premium subsidies from the government.Total OOP cost may be up 70-100% for people with high utilization, highest premium hikes and no other state program offsets. This is not the norm in most states or for most individuals. Insurers themselves are raising 10-20% tops and 20 is ACA plans, employers looking between 7-10% from what I’ve seen and researched.

Swearwolfofwallst

Assume they're referring to the state healthcare exchanges where people can buy insurance on the open ACA market, not through their employer. These are the subsidies they're referring to that will increase massively, while rates for employer/employeer coverage will "only" go up 10-20% annually.

TheGoatBoyy

Except you might move to a state with higher or lower taxes in retirement. Or you might retire early and need to qualify for ACA subsidies. Or you might retire late and be looking at massive RMDs. Or you may want tax shielding for your children's inheritance. There's a lot of variables for the future that you cant really know in your 20/30/40s.  Diversity is key and you probably shouldn't go 100% into any one bucket.

AntoniaFauci

The crazy thing is we’d save trillions if we did that. And if it’s ever implemented, no politician of any kind could take it away. Yet nobody has had the brass to just ram it through. Even ACA, which is health insurance industry’s dream design RomneyCare, after we had that for just a few years, nobody is taking even that mediocre thing away.

Ahava_Keshet5784

Enjoy the small dividend. You may be able to use or set up a donation advisory fund to offset the capital gains. Sell 200 x 250 and you can write off the full value against your income taxes of 50k, and not have to worry about the low basis. Assuming you save 12.5 k in taxes. Maybe this would make sense but I don’t really have this sort of ‘good’ problem. Of course you could move out of state and then sell some, probably not a great option, but it could help you let your 401k grow for another 5 years. Assuming you get Social Security benefits, is 70 or something the max? I hear tell that some people have done the following, does not sound ethical if y mou think about it, but not sure what American attitudes are. Someone took out 2 years in expenses and only had social securities income. This allowed this person. To have enough income to do a low cost conversion to a Roth. Me no EXPERT as i was told mi’espose would do that cause girls can’t handle money. Did you think about some advice i think someone much older said, “the only way to avoid taxes is to make virtually NO money honey.” Probably not really listening at the time as was think ming an ought and was trying my best to not stick out. As i said, 450k stuffed to the max should have that to 600, maybe. Now you can’t touch that until 77, but you might be able to convert 1/3. Probably praying for a big correction to move it and avoid the minimum distributions, which i am informed that they are extremely high. Everyone has to face it someday, nei i and utters don’t want to think about it. But knowing that you could possibly invest as much as 400k which you can leave to someone. Knowing that this should last 11 years, the beneficial recipient should be able to get 11 years at 3500 a month tax free and the other account that is taxable could then be drawn down and used to max out their retirement accounts with not directly of course but they would have to knowing it is the smartest way to invest. 7,500 at 1/2 the taxes is a wise investment in a retirement savings,. Knowing that kid or children would probably be close to retiring at 61 1/2 (a young age, but still heard it is the average in your fine country) The silly nickname is ~ stop gap to leave their a little something to future generations. Y A H way. Stands or represents Ya’All Hebrew, Halfway Anyway Stratagem ‘By a number of good council, there is safety in numbers: •• •• •, 7x🔥🚫need to accumulate too much. To those much is given 7 fold is expected as this is a ‘gift’ no expectations just a kind and giving heart filled with love and goodness. May your future be a blessing to all of the living as well as your person memory, G-d willing may you enjoy your good fortune. Selling to avoid taxes is not a n investment strategy that is recommended by some professional I am supposedly related to. i was raised in a family harshly, but that made me tough. Enjoy it is your REWARD and don’t wait too late. A small amount of taxes, should NOT lead to the ACA biting you in de hinterland. Thought 65 you have to file for Medicare or face a penalty? You have good reason to celebrate and enjoy, but you may want to consider a structured sell down if your ‘fruit’ stock and claim social something now or when you stop working. With NO capital gains taxes you and absolutely 0 appreciation you have a great situation as this money will last you 14 years and 7 months taking you to 80 or 81. With the 45,000 a year or some ting, you could meet about 20k per month after taxes cap gain, but 180 is all you need including your pension scheme (we call it that donna be offended) If you stick to that and live on 11 grand a month your money should last till you are 87 and 9 months and still have a Roth of north by north east of 700k. Just an estimated thingy ya 401 k would be worth only 250 at best. At 5% including a dividend from that fruity company you can F gump it and live to 107. A olde, but a semi goo die, joke was told semi frequents just recently. An account a ye’law firm, A Hebrew school teacher and a Ua~Young economist were asked the same question. “HoW mutvVCh. Does 2+1 or 2 As much or as little as you need it said the accountant, the Lawyer or Attorney said how much to ya need to win, call your accountant, the Hebrew teacher said wisely, as much as your conscience can take you from this life to the next. The young economist interjected (quite rudely) what does morality have to do with your consciences’ tolerance, or how is reality relevant to this discussion? They all were shocked at this young person’s views. They said, “we can lie about it, deny it, for the render of taxes is justified by scripture of all kinds.” A rabbi a priest and another religious figure were listening and then quietly deciding the outcome each would prefer to hear. Only the lil’person that asked the original question was left with NO real answers. Frustrated she cried, why me? The answer cam quietly but persistently as if the speaker and the sound and fury could no longer be ignored. The one and only pure as light offered herself as an explanation.

PashasMom

If you can afford to pay the vast majority of your medical expenses out of pocket then it can be a great move. Keep in mind that you can't just choose to open a HSA -- your health insurance must be a "consumer driven health plan" -- a very specific type of insurance structure. You can buy CDHP's on ACA exchanges or your employer may offer one. If your employer offers one, they may include a match to your HSA or seed money. OP you may very well know all of this but I figure for others scrolling by who don't really know about HSAs and CDHPs it might be helpful info :)

cmackchase

Well the ACA did take care of that, who knows now. And at this point, how many bartenders and servers are expecting to retire?

ziggy029

Roth vs. Traditional is based on tax brackets, but there are other things in play that also favor a Roth. For example: * ACA premium subsidies are based on MAGI, so Roth distributions will not add to MAGI and traditional TIRA/401K distributions will. * No RMDs on Roths, avoiding forced RMDs in high tax brackets and helping avoid IRMAA

soccerguys14

I’d be hung up on him too if I was a welfare queen. Obama did more for republicans than any Republican has in recent times. The ACA alone saves their asses.

SkyRockRidge

A few years ago I created a spreadsheet for exactly this purpose (determining the optimal Roth conversion amount). I recently productized this spreadsheet and am now making it available, on Etsy, for $6 (an intentionally low price). The users are primarily from the Reddit community and with their help I just launched version 2.0 which allows you to see the optimal conversion amount in a single chart. [https://www.etsy.com/listing/4327514977/excel-roth-ira-conversion-optimizer-v20](https://www.etsy.com/listing/4327514977/excel-roth-ira-conversion-optimizer-v20) This spreadsheet will show you the optimal Roth conversion amount for your specific scenario. It also allows you to save and an unlimited number of scenarios and compare up to five at a time. As an example, you could compare the two scenarios: 1. Making Roth conversions now (which may impact your ACA subsidies) 2. Defer Roth conversions until 65 (when Medicare starts). Roth Conversion Start Year is one of the parameters that you can modify, so it would be easy to change this along with the Roth conversion amounts to see how it impacts your returns over time. If you decide to try it, don't hesitate to reach out to me with questions or feedback!

steve_b

Because you can book the loss, put that money into something else that might actually go up. Now you have cap gains, plus a loss to offset those games. "Free" money. There's no point holding onto something if you think there are better options. The only exception to "if I was buying today, would I buy this?" rule would be that if that causes you to sell the stock, will in incur a short term cap gain, or a long term cap gain so large that you're bumped into the higher ACA surcharge rate? If so, you may want to hold off.

moazzam0

If AI peak is within sight, we could see a weak economy into the rate cut cycle. Rotation to health insurance is prudent. Republicans/orange won't win this game of chicken with ACA subsidies. It's $30 billion of annual spending cuts that could cost them the midterms. $nvda $cnc

bassoon14

CNC is the largest Marketplace/ACA provider. All of the insurance companies cut their revenue guidance on Marketplace for the year. They’re also the largest Medicaid insurer. Medicaid enrollment expanded during COVID and is being cut under the current admin/congress. CNC also sucks at Medicare Advantage. Basically all 3 of their lines of business are underperforming and have an uncertain future because they are funded through government programs.

Politicsboringagain

They didn't nor did they ever run on "we're not the other guy". But voters in this country are so sexist, racist, homophonic and anti non white immigrant, that's all they heard. Even though that's never the platform. "Kamala is for they them, I'm for you." Woke this, woke that.  They are eating the cats ans dogs.  And people like you fall for it hook line and sinker. I know you benefit from policies Democrats have passed. We all do. Just like coal miners in west Virginia who hated Obamacare but love the ACA. 

Mogli_Puff

> I will pay for it we tried that with the ACA, but you voted against that.

LabDaddy59

I'm 66, retired at 58, not yet drawing SoSec. No fixed income holdings. A base of S&P index and cash, then equities/options. I did have a 5 year ladder at age 58 but that was to bridge me (partially) to Medicare age as I wanted to keep my taxable income low to get a good ACA credit. So, as u/shabuboy notes, it depends on your circumstances and risk tolerance.

cutiesarustimes2

Some changes to the ACA enjoined by a judge. Not material insofar as credits etc which might be a tailwind for insurers but could be accretive

Salty-Ganache3068

As someone who had a similar score. I can tell you the tax burden is more than 39%. At the FED level don’t forget about the 0.9% ACA tax, the 3.8 NIT. If you live in a state with income tax and or local income and access taxes MOVE now. That will save you 4-9%. Also, depending on your age and how long that buyout payment last, while you got a nice hit, you may be far from set for life. If you did not get an employment contract assume you have a 1 year run out. In these buyouts the acquired team usually gets ousted. Get debt free as fast as possible, pay off your home, get a nice CPO Mercedes as a trophy, and stash as much cash as you can in tax free retirement accounts. If you have any kids set up a fund a 529. You can dump a ton of money in there that will be tax free later. If you understand investing, set up a diversified portfolio at a self managed firm like Vanguard, Fidelity or Schwab to save on fees. If not find a fee based advisor, not a commission based advisor and let them help you plan a strategy. Lastly, take care of your health. Use the money to address any medical issues now before you get old. Can’t spend it when you’re dead. Congrats.

SumthingBrewing

Just wait until everyone gets their new health insurance premiums in January. Most people aren’t aware that the Biden era enhanced tax credits for ACA are going away on 12/31. And ACA premiums are expected to increase 20% on top of that. A couple paying $1000 a month today might be on the hook for $2000. A lot of people are going to drop their insurance. Just a reminder: 2026 is a midterm election!

heliumbox

I can use ChatGPT too: Here’s an overview of key campaign promises Donald Trump made that remain unfulfilled—drawing from fact-checked sources and seasoned reporting: Major Unfulfilled Promises 1. Build the Border Wall and Make Mexico Pay for It Promise: Erect a “great wall” on the southern border, financed by Mexico Outcome: While ~400–453 miles of border barriers were built, the vast majority replaced or reinforced existing structures—not new wall. Mexico never paid for it; U.S. taxpayers footed the bill. CNN Tampa Bay Times Wikipedia +1 2. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Promise: Fully dismantle the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and create a better healthcare plan Outcome: Repeal efforts failed in the Senate. The individual mandate penalty was removed, but no replacement plan was passed. Legal challenges continue. DCReport.org Tampa Bay Times Wikipedia leaderarchive-hoyer.house.gov 3. Revitalize Manufacturing Jobs Promise: Spur a significant surge in U.S. manufacturing employment Outcome: Manufacturing job growth remained on par with the Obama years—no dramatic improvement. Notably, promised jobs from Carrier and Foxconn fell well short. DCReport.org +1 Tampa Bay Times 4. Eliminate the National Debt Promise: Eradicate the national debt in eight years Outcome: Instead of shrinking, debt ballooned by trillions. Trump actually added approximately $7.8 trillion to the deficit. perrspectives.com 5. Deport All Undocumented Immigrants Within Two Years Promise: Remove roughly 11 million undocumented individuals rapidly Outcome: Removal declined modestly but far below the promised levels—down to about 10.5 million by 2020. perrspectives.com 6. End Birthright Citizenship Promise: Eliminate automatic citizenship for those born in the U.S. Outcome: An executive action was issued, but courts have blocked it. The Constitution still protects birthright citizenship—meaning unilateral changes are not feasible. BBC AP News 7. Invest $550 Billion in Infrastructure / Create a Federal Infrastructure Fund Promise: Overhaul America’s infrastructure via a new fund Outcome: No major infrastructure bill passed. The proposed fund never materialized, and water infrastructure investment fell to a 30-year low. Stacker Wikipedia Center for American Progress Action 8. Triple ICE Enforcement & Deportations Promise: Hike the number of ICE agents significantly Outcome: ICE workforce numbers actually shrank slightly—from about 5,800 to 5,300 by end of 2019. Newsweek +1 9. Eliminate Common Core Promise: Abolish the educational standards widely used in U.S. schools Outcome: Common Core remains in use in many states; the federal government has no authority to override state education standards. Newsweek 10. Expel China from the WTO Promise: Remove China from the World Trade Organization Outcome: No such expulsion occurred; instead, trade tensions escalated with tariffs but no WTO exit. Newsweek Other Notable Broken Promises Paid Maternity Leave: Only available to federal employees—not universally implemented. DCReport.org Opioid Crisis Action: Day-one pledge unfulfilled; overdose rates remain high. The Washington Informer Ban Sanctuary Cities / Green New Deal: Legislation never produced. The Washington Informer Pushing School Choice Funding: The $20 billion federal investment never passed. Stacker Health Savings Accounts (HSAs): Promise to expand them was not realized. Stacker Marine Corps Expansion: Did not rebuild to the promised 36 battalions. Stacker Hiring Freeze / Smaller Government: Workforce shrank in segments, but overall government size increased. Stacker Wikipedia

randomusername0000

Not about what we agree with or don't agree with. Moreso pointing out he's generally been doing or working at what he's saying. To avoid being a partisan, mad about everything, angry boi...Here's a list from GPT 5. Red vs Blue is idiocy, this is wealth vs poors. Again, agree or don't, hate it or love it, IDGAF, # ✅ Trump Promises Delivered (Verifiable) * **Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (2017)** → Lowered corporate tax rate (35% → 21%), reduced individual tax rates, repealed ACA individual mandate penalty. * **Supreme Court Appointments** → Nominated and confirmed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett (solidifying conservative majority). * **Deregulation** → Rolled back Dodd-Frank banking regulations and other federal rules (auto lending, environmental, etc.). * **Trade: NAFTA → USMCA** → Renegotiated NAFTA and replaced it with USMCA (took effect July 2020). * **Energy & Infrastructure** → Revived Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipeline projects by executive action. * **Paris Climate Agreement** → Officially withdrew the U.S. in 2020. * **Jerusalem Embassy** → Recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital; moved the U.S. Embassy there in 2017. * **U.S. Space Force** → Established as a new military branch in 2019. * **Afghanistan Withdrawal Deal** → Signed the 2020 Doha Agreement with the Taliban, setting U.S. exit terms. * **Abraham Accords** → Brokered peace/normalization deals between Israel and UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. * **Disaster Relief** → Signed a $19B disaster aid package in 2019 for Puerto Rico, Midwest flooding, and wildfire recovery. # 🚨 Additional (Second Term so far) * **Mass Pardons for Jan. 6 Rioters** (\~1,500 issued). * **Border & Deportation Focus** (declared national emergency, stepped up removals). * **Executive Orders Blitz** (140+ in first 100 days, covering immigration, education, deregulation). * **Ceasefire Mediation** (helped broker or push for truces in multiple global conflicts).

Cold_Specialist_3656

We're you not even aware that Dems raised corporate tax, Medicaid, and ACA funding?

Cold_Specialist_3656

Yeah cuz we're in opposite land where Dems raising taxes on corporations to increase funding for Medicaid and ACA is really giving that money to corporations. Totally makes sense if you shut your brain off. 

NoneOfTheAbove2024

Shit ACA $2k+ plus

chatrep

I wouldn’t pay it off but can think of a few scenarios that might justify it: - you simply want the peace of mind knowing it’s paid off. Sort of like paying cash for a new car instead of financing it. - you are nearing retirement and want to start doing Roth conversions and need to lower your income and resulting tax bracket. - for early retirement, you may also want to qualify for ACA subsidies and need to lower your AGI. - you don’t want to insure your home. (I know sounds crazy but I know several people that basically self-insure and accept the risk).

rooftopsantiago2

Subsidies via the ACA also end this year, pushing premiums higher for those on a marketplace plan.

moazzam0

Centene outlook already bottomed when they reported Q2 guidance. This was evidenced by the fact that the stock didn't set a new low below $22.35, despite several other health insurers setting new lows this week and the broader market selling off 2-3%. What was the pivot? Management revealed that the hit to Centene before margins normalize comfortably allows for a profitable 2025 and 2026. The Medicare segment is profitable and growing again. Trump admin put pressure on drug prices and gave $36 billion to Medicaid/Medicare for GLP-1. Republicans don't actually want health insurance premiums to rise 20%+ for millions of Republican voters months before the 2026 midterms. They will implement their own substitute for ACA subsidies that keeps premiums low, but also allows them a political win against ACA.

S3v3n0fNine

Good, it will take a couple years for the Medicaid and ACA exchange cuts to be realized and then you'll get really wrecked.

OpinionatedRichard

Trump is gonna stick it in and break it off on these crooks. I say that's not enough, PBM system and healthcare systems, taken over by insurance companies needs to be eliminated completely along with the ACA. Eliminate all taxpayer funded insurance carriers. Go to the system we all deserve, expand Medicare to all citizens and not this democrat run money laundering scheme we have now,

Augie52

This idiot is running a corporation and only cares about profits. He has no care that these tariffs are a tax on Americans, no care that his cuts to Medicaid, Medicare and the ACA will kill Americans, no care that the tourism revenue here has been slashed, no care that food costs are skyrocketing….yadda yadda yadda. He just wants to stand up and scream to his billionaire constituents how much he has improved the bottom line. We are not a corporation.

__jazmin__

But the ACA allows them to increase premiums for the following year. A percentage of a bigger number is a bigger number. 

__jazmin__

Of course he wants to help people that cheat at their diets.  This will help UHC. The ACA allows them only a portion of spending to be used for administration and overhead so spending more means more money for them. 

OpinionatedRichard

It was at $40-ish/share when I started working there. At some point it was at almost $600. They have done nothing but grow and thrive. The one thing I see that can be their downfall is the fact that all of these health insurance companies were banned from selling any viable major-medical personal insurance product back in 2013-2014, forcing participation in the ACA. All of the insurance carriers prosperity now depends on how tactfully they are able to gulp down delicious government titty-milk. Due to budget cuts, all the extra tax credits people received since covid, causing lower premiums, have expired. So there will be people who can't afford it coverage anymore this enrollment season. Less enrollment = less titty-milk. So probably not great. Then there is always the Trump Factor in play, he can just decide to continue the credits, or increase them = more titty milk for all.

SaltyPlantain1503

Right up Trumps alley. Just wait til the admin dismantles the ACA. Unfettered profit for UNH …. Leaps/CALLS.

No-Cartographer-5904

Insider news : ACA gonna extend this week. Don’t miss the chance to load on OSCR calls

Dr-McLuvin

lol he needs those sweet ACA health care credits.

klef3069

This is the point that just baffles me. Spending is the entire point of capitalism and if your population is facing No SNAP Medicare reductions/ACA premium savings loss Price increases from tariffs Just those things will reduce spending drastically because of the immediate reduction of $$'s available. Corporations are going to feel that in terms of reduced revenue. What am I missing? How does Big T have any corporate support because this looks like a slow-moving death spiral?

cieame

I think there is a probably an opportunity in the sector for companies less exposed to medicare, medicaid, and ACA exchanges. But there still might be some more downside until some of the news flow gets better IMO.

grizzleSbearliano

I wouldn’t be surprised if Powell had to raise rates in the next 2 years. The treasury market might be exactly incorrect expecting cuts. If this is the case Trump is fucking every overlevered PE doosh bag firm that’s been wishing for 0.5% refinancing come next year or so. If Molina and centene fail then he gets to point his finger at the ACA and claim that it failed. “The government will not reward companies that use its own debt instruments to lever against its own debt programs-UNLESS you can dump onto retail!” Hence the push to get PE access to 401k assets.

Alarming-Sand-9166

Just keep in mind all the changes to Medicaid that are making it harder for these insurance companies to make money. Amendments to ACA, rising costs, transparency regulations for billing. There’s a ton of headwinds.

aznoone

With the Medicaid Medicare and ACA changes set to happen end of the year wouldn't you have to figure out who the winners and losers would be.

nopointers

Full article says it would be “for people with certain income levels.” Sounds like it’s effectively just renaming the Earned Income Credit. People will fall for it just like they fell for ACA and NAFTA being “replaced” while remaining unable to articulate a single difference.

WickedSensitiveCrew

It a woman. Basically, profitability is expected to return in 2026. She was technical and in detail but that the summary. If you a political remark said along the lines of Republicans might chicken-out over voter reaction to 20-30% premium inflation and renew ACA subsidies.

moazzam0

CNC is gonna make so much money in 2026 as: - OBBBA fear-driven dynamics subside (CEO confirmed our suspicions on the call today) - Republicans chicken-out over voter reaction to 20-30% premium inflation and renew ACA subsidies

Wickrest

CNC pumps right after I sell for loss, can't make this shit up. Just lie about guidance and pump stock, it's negative EPS before ACA cuts have even kicked in, why would it be up next quarter lol

posttruthage

BBB broke the ACA and health insurance coverage rates will tank. Most of the people leaving will be the healthier ones. Look into the Medical cost ratio for anyone dealing with the ACA.

Wickrest

CNC lost money before the ACA cuts started, imagine when they start. That's crazy, how do they go from 7$ EPS to negative EPS when nothing even happened yet. With their shares at more than half the price

SheRamen69

To be fair, when was the last time Dems controlled Congress with a Dem president? Oh yeah, Obama first two years and that was is.  Once Obama was elected there was a very well organized effort to say 'no 'to anything and everything that Obama wanted .. Then eventually the Democrats (border Bill during Biden is a great example)  So schumer had nothing backing him up so why would he waste time drafting a bill that would get shot down by either all or vast majority of the majority party in the Senate? Seriously, can we stop this "both sides" talk when it's been conservatives time and time again that screw up any and all progress.  Can establishment Democrats do more? Sure  Are Democrats to blame for the slow deterioration of any progress made in the last twenty years? NO And if your response is in reference to the first two years of Obama, I think the ACA was a way bigger fish to catch. LGTBQ rights or other "smaller" issues like weed take a seat all the way in the back.

BuildBackRicher

There is not one voter who would blame 45 for high health insurance and medical costs. Those were from the ACA, which was 44’s partisan (and a good number of Dems didn’t even vote for it) effort. You also conveniently left off the accelerating wage and employment growth in those years. In essence, 44 responded weakly to the financial crisis and then put a weight around the neck of the economy with the ACA. Any wage growth under 44 was eaten up by ACA. 45 put them ahead with wage growth and tax relief, and that’s what they remembered going to polls in 2024.

BuildBackRicher

First, no one blames, or should, 45 for high health insurance or medical costs. In fact, any thinking person knows it was largely due to the ACA. You also conveniently left off wage growth, cherry picking to only focus on tax cuts. Any wage growth that 44 produced was eaten up by ACA. 45 put them aheD for the first time in a decade.

darling_desire

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oscar-health-announces-preliminary-financial-100000097.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACQbgpLP7iOpWGICVpl_3pp3-2E4kwS5ldeiQ9RJcmjWX9HIL-Ok9pvCUDo85MOzhSv1FNxbRxHjf3ZJdkjA7ph91WbvA_t5dKWXpJMxHdbKs5ppAyrhiN5DG4ktz-sUute2R9L31Rf1dIKFAaQIXcjFMUxC2GGVDsa_Jxf3YfXi Lol! It is overvalued rn with ACA at risk of going away.

piginthecity

I would wait until after earnings call. It’s gonna drop some more this week. Industry is getting pummeled, ACA specifically. Look at ELV, CNC, MOH — UNH and OSCR are next 

sck178

UNH bulls are so funny. They can't even imagine what 🌮's ACA cuts are going to do to their outlook

darling_desire

Looks like you are gambling and not investing! You clearly haven't learned your lesson about the 99% loss. Research about the fundamentals before investing. As far as OSCR is concerned, I think it's still a little overvalued, and with the ACA getting cut, it is overvalued right now!

txholdem

ELV dropped $40 on Thur, and another $25 on Fri. without the above change, ELV already suffered on earning (i dont know why) without trump's BBB (big beautiful bill). not to mention UNH - 50% off the peak. the BBB likely removes or significantly reduces health insurance premium tax credit. for ACA aka obamacare, low income people got reduction often more than $1k/month for health insurance premium. some ended up with free insurance because of that. without the federal subsidies, many will have to pay $1-2k/mon for insurance. that is an affordability problem. on the medicare side, medicaid helped paying premium for low income elderlies. BBB get rid of medicaid. we are talking about 10s of millions of people not getting health insurance. what direction do you think UNH, ELV will go?

slanginthangs

Their business is enhanced by ACA but they’ve reiterated their guide twice without subsidies. They’ve built in fed funding changes into the models.

MysteriousSlice007

what are you saying? Oscar Health reported a $275 million first quarter profit as the health insurer’s enrollment hit yet another record, surpassing two million individual and small group members. The provider of individual coverage under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, Wednesday reported net income of $275.3 million Oscar, which benefited from the influx of Americans who signed up for Obamacare last year, provides health benefits in 18 states. Whether such Obamacare momentum and growth continues after this year in the broader market is uncertain. Enhanced subsidies many Obamacare enrollees used to buy coverage is set to expire at the end of this year They literally relied on ACA for growth

ZombieFrenchKisser

Maybe AI is regarded but it says the company was built around ACA. > Oscar Health significantly benefits from the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The company was founded specifically to capitalize on the ACA market and has built its entire business model around this legislation. Foundation and Business Model Oscar Health was founded in 2012 directly in response to the Affordable Care Act. The company was created to "take advantage of the new markets and millions of people that gained access to insurance under the Affordable Care Act". This strategic positioning has made Oscar fundamentally dependent on the ACA's framework and success. Revenue and Growth Tied to ACA Oscar's financial performance is directly correlated with ACA enrollment: The company achieved its first profitable year in 2024, earning $25.4 million in net income, largely due to soaring enrollment in ACA plans Oscar reported record revenue of $9.2 billion in 2024, driven by ACA marketplace growth By 2025, Oscar continued this momentum with a $275 million first quarter profit as Obamacare enrollment hit new records Market Expansion and Membership Growth Oscar has experienced substantial growth alongside ACA market expansion: Membership nearly doubled from 1 million in 2023 to 1.7 million by the end of 2024 The company now operates in 18 states with plans to expand to 70% of the ACA market by 2027 Oscar's enrollment growth outpaced the overall market by almost three times during 2025 open enrollment Dependence on ACA Framework Oscar's business model demonstrates clear dependence on the ACA: The company offers ACA-compliant health plans that include the 10 essential health benefits required by the legislation Oscar generates revenue primarily from insurance premiums collected from Individual & Family ACA marketplace plans The company's CEO has expressed concerns about potential changes to ACA subsidies, indicating how crucial these policies are to Oscar's business Strategic Positioning Oscar has positioned itself as a technology-driven alternative within the ACA marketplace, using this differentiation to capture market share from traditional insurers. The company explicitly markets itself as offering "Affordable Care Act (ACA) health plans, also called ObamaCare or Individual & Family plans". In summary, Oscar Health not only benefits from the ACA but was specifically created to capitalize on it. The company's growth, profitability, and strategic expansion are all directly tied to the success and continuation of ACA programs and enrollment.

slanginthangs

ACA doesn’t affect OSCR - that news should never have had impact on the company

MysteriousSlice007

Why> most are downgrading oscr BBB by republicans will drop ACA enrollment by 30% next year new price target is $11?

Rare-ish_Birb

It is too big to fail and just asked for 20% more premiums to cover medical usage. They'll get it. Maybe not profitable on ACA plans til 2026 tho. Big short interest means maybe a pop after earnings if they're transparent. UNH 290c 08/15

S3v3n0fNine

People bag holding UNH are crazy. Removal of the ACA exchange subsidies and addition of Medicaid work requirements mean sicker people are going to stay on these. Very likely that health insurance companies will underproject this scenario just like when the ACA was first passed. Plus you'll have hospitals hurting from OBBBA, which means they'll need to negotiate much more aggressively with health insurance companies which will likely eat into those health insurance companies' profits.

FoolsGoldMouthpiece

They dont have the same exposure to medicaid cuts as their business is primarily ACA plans. ACA aint going nowhere.

looool_k_libtard

OSCR going to rip fucking faces after their earni n d when they reiterate for the millionth time ACA isn’t a risk while confirming guidance.

jaqimbli

The way a company chooses to pool its constituents does have an effect on the premiums, as in your homeowners example. But it isn't inherent to the concept of insurance companies, it's just the way it has been implemented. Even for you smokers and non-smokers example there are ten states that absolutely do not allow an additional surcharge based on that criteria, and it's federally limited to a 50% increase under the ACA. Let me take your proposal one step further. African Americans have a 60% higher risk for type 2 diabetes than white Americans. Would you suggest that charging African Americans higher premiums for health insurance is good business? You would be right. But it isn't fundamental to the business of insurance.

DisastrousMarzipan18

People need healthcare but they don't really need insurance, especially the kind of insurance that takes your premium and deny your claims for a living. CNC is down 40% because they see 30% drop in revenue from ACA, people just stopped buying insurance and prefer to settle debt with the care provider instead of having an intermediate party screwing both sides

perfectson

Healthcare especially insurance has been laying people off for months now. Not sure what you mean - there’s a delayed effect as well , because with the new Medicaid and ACA bills you’re going to see additional uninsured folks who and hospital cuts will follow

Inevitable-Sale3569

ACA and SIMPLE IRA’s were actually very good for small businesses. They created a chance to compete with the large players on some benefits. If continuously improved on, it could have been great. The ACA now is just a money suck, and SIMPLE is going to be toast when the market crashes.

cutiesarustimes2

It's garbage insurance though. It's an ACA player, but not even the lowest cost one

captain_ahabb

>Where are you getting that the US hasn't increased social spending? My working knowledge of changes in federal social spending programs and policies. The ACA was the last major statutory expansion of social spending.

our_sole

Make regular contributions to a Roth IRA and an HSA (if you can with your health insurance). I didn't do this and am now starting on a multi-year Roth conversion process that will be a PITA. It guarantees that I will pay top dollar for ACA for years before Medicare.

civil_politics

Yes the industry is severely flawed. The ACA put a cap on profit margins for insurance companies which means the only way to increase profit is to drive up revenue which is done in indirect collusion with service providers and has the direct side effect of both sides being interested in charging more as well as ordering/encouraging unnecessary and expensive testing/procedures. Profit is a great motivator and incentive - the issue is that profit is not earned or made from positive health outcomes, but from health treatment generally - no one profits off of healthy individuals, even insurance companies which just collect premiums must return excess insurance pool monies. In complex arrangements third parties, such as insurance companies, provide necessary pricing influence. For example it’s easy for me to say that if my doctor charges $1000 for a yearly physical, I’m being taken advantage of. It’s much harder for me to know whether $10,000 is a reasonable cost for an overnight stay at a trauma center where there is a neurosurgeon on stand by out of necessity even though I just had a punctured lung.

itsadiseaster

Why the fuck you think $1000 is good while at the same time he is crippling ACA, medicaid, SS, and other services? Here is a free apple for you while I take back your ability to grow your own garden.

Worried-Aioli8417

I want to caveat that I am not an advanced investor and am between 85%-95% invested in ETFs (hold elf, nvda, unh, tsla, goog, kkr) but healthcare/insurance just happens to be my profession 😄. So I think speculation impacted a lot of the healthcare sector after BBB. And then with the Centene news last week, just impacted everything. ACA exchange plans have always performed poorly, there’s no healthy people to pay premiums to offset the sick…it’s 99% unhealthy people purchasing through the marketplace with a smattering of other individuals. I’m watching elevance, they are a BUCA (blue cross, uhc, Cigna, Aetna), not going anywhere. Centene…they have some companies (Magellan and a pbm) that operate on the commercial side but their business comes from Medicare and Medicaid…I’m not sure if they will recover.

Rurumo666

Great, working Americans just got hit with the biggest Federal Income Tax increase in generations with the BBB, why not really grind the boot in their necks with a massive sales tax too-they'll have more money to spend on Trump Tax when they can't afford the increased ACA subsidies.

Difficult-Roof-3191

I don't hate Trump, I just think his policies fuck over average American's. I did my research and read through the main provisions in the bill. So I'm not just jumping on the bandwagon. It will overwhelmingly fuck over average Americans. Explain to me how kicking ~12 million people off of Medicaid is good for people? How does nixing our energy independence by cutting renewable energy help America? How does giving the low and middle class a tax increase while cutting taxes for rich people help us? How does increasing ACA premiums help people who already struggle to afford healthcare?

RevolutionaryPhoto24

Just now I understand what’s happened to the ACA. And again feel I may puke. Silver lining: self-pay healthcare is encouraged with pr…🤢

aznoone

He killed the ACA with the BBB as far as subsidies. Now it is just a marketplace after the end of this year. Doesn't even need a replacement.

Behind_the_palm_tree

Remember when the ACA was being discussed and republicans said it was going to give the government power to have death panels? I remember. I guess when republicans do it, it’s okay though.

mislysbb

I’m also on the ACA exchange, and have been for 7+ years now; truly one of the best bills created in recent memory. Guess I’m just really skeptical that they won’t touch it, but like you said we’ll see. If people can’t even afford an ACA plan there’s not many alternatives.

Me-Regarded

That's the CBO, a laughing stock liberal cesspool. The actual bill is clear, if you read 3rd party sources about the Medicaid thing you'll understand. I'm self employed, I'm on the ACA Exchange. We're not being cut, just the freeloaders are. I'm a huge supporter of the health care exchange, it changed my life as a very small business owner. I'll guess we'll find out. Also, I've never voted, never will, so I'm not orange guy or any other guy supporter

Areyounobody__Too

Some states offer health care coverage to undocumented migrants using state funds, but no one can use medicaid funds because they're specifically excluded from doing so. That said, the cuts to medicaid are going to change the ACA Medicaid expansions and will force states to cover more for Healthcare or drop people entirely. This will result in undocumented migrants receiving coverage having benefits slashed as well. The direct cuts will largely affect undocumented migrants through emtala and the second order affects where state budgets get strained. The 12 million ish numbers that get thrown around are primarily concerned with the people who are enrolled in medicaid plans via state health exchanges and their versions of Medicare (Hawk-I, mass health, etc). Those are all us citizens and lawful residents.

MadPangolin

• *Roughly 17 million people would lose health coverage and become uninsured by 2034 because of the Medicaid and ACA marketplace cuts in the bill, the bill’s failure to extend enhanced premium tax credits for ACA marketplace coverage, and other harmful ACA marketplace changes being made via rule changes, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). That’s up from the House Republican plan, which would cause about 16 million people to become uninsured.* • *CBO estimates that 11.8 million people would become uninsured due to Medicaid and ACA marketplace cuts in the Senate bill.* • *An additional 4.2 million people would lose marketplace coverage because the legislation fails to extend the premium tax credit enhancements.* • *Another 900,000 in losses come from earlier CBO estimates related to a marketplace rule the Trump Administration has since finalized. (Updated estimates accounting for the final rule and its potential interactions with the Senate bill are not available at this time.)* • *When people lose their health coverage, they lose access to preventive and primary care, care for life-threatening conditions, and treatments for chronic conditions. For example, a person with diabetes who loses health coverage would lose the ability to properly manage their condition so they can maintain their health as well as their employment* https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/by-the-numbers-senate-republican-reconciliation-bill-takes-health-coverage-away

HauntingHarmony

I am old enough that i lived through having to watch america go insane, and its infuriating seeing americans not know a goddamn thing about their own system. But Obama didnt have a 24 month supermajority in the senate (aka 60 votes), [it was a 4 month one (see link for timeline)](https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/fleeting-illusory-supermajority-msna200211). And you may not think the ACA aka obamacare was the best thing in the world. But he did get it through, and its millions and millions and millions of americans healthcare. That was a big deal, and something popular, they still havent managed to kill it, since its so popular. God forbid the democrats get any credit for anything they do, since obviously they are just paid opposition.

LiberaMeFromHell

What's your healthcare plan for retirement? Making Medicaid and likely the ACA credits inaccessible to adults without dependents is pretty terrible for FIRE. Worse than slightly slower stock market growth for sure.

JafarFromAfar2

Have you ever considered that the ACA and Inflation Reduction Act were made IN RESPONSE to those things happening? Genuinely wondering.

Prior-Preparation896

ACA exchange subsidies (why Oscar was down) are not tied to Medicaid in any way. Hix is when ppl purchase commercial insurance on exchanges. CNC pulled their guidance due to low enrollment & higher costs in hix. CNC’s blow up had read thrus to other MCOs — Oscar, elevance, Molina all have high exposure to hix so were hit the hardest. The amount of upvotes given to people pointing to the budget as the driver shows how dumb “dumb” money really is

ShadowLiberal

That already happened in a bunch of places with ACA, because their Republican politicians decided to turn down the free Medicaid funding. Medicaid's payments to the hospitals were cut under ACA because the expanded Medicaid access was supposed to make up for it, since they'd have way less uninsured patients that couldn't pay for their services. So it really screwed over a lot of hospitals surrounded by many poor people who still didn't have insurance thanks to stubborn Republican politicians who turned down free money.

creemeeseason

Dragging OSCR down with it. Monitoring that situation. CNC is apparently heavily involved in Medicare, where as OSCR has less exposure there and more to the ACA exchanges.

qw1ns

>Medicare will shrink by about $2 trillion, pushing more seniors into private Medicare Advantage plans that can cost more. IIRC, ACA Medicare is available to all U.S. adults ages 65 and older, regardless of income, but ages 19-64 needs to work minimum 80 hours a month to be eligible to ACA (affordable care). Big healthcare REITs won't suffer as seniors are always eligible (ages 65+). The side benefit is 21% corp tax made permanent and 2017 personal taxes and exemptions are permanent (Both are ending by Dec 2025). With this bill, market goes back again bullish.

jmd709

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/breaking-down-one-big-beautiful-bill That includes a general breakdown of provisions each committee contributed to the bill and the costs of those tax cuts, spending cuts and new spending for each committee based on the version House GOP passed last month and changes made by GOP in the Senate prior to June 24th. $158 billion in new spending on top of current spending from immigration, border and customs even though those seem to be very effective under current spending levels. $983 billion in spending cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and ACA premium tax credit. That hurts everyone with health insurance, not just those that will lose coverage from Medicare, Medicaid and ACA marketplace. Insurance is a cost sharing model and most of the health plans those groups have is through private insurers like United and BCBS. There are $401 billion in cuts to Education for most types of federal student loans along with income-driven repayment plans. It also it includes increasing undergrad loam limits. Those limits have been limiting tuition and fee increases because those have to stay at a level people can afford to pay through student loan since a majority cannot afford to pay tuition and fees out of pocket. The 10-year deficit calculations do not take into account the total federal revenue collected through interest on new student loans. That committee used creative math to determine the amount of those spending cuts.

azavio

UnitedHealth may benefit as more seniors pick Medicare Advantage plans, but cuts to Medicaid and ACA could reduce revenue, and more uninsured patients may push hospital costs higher. The gains from Medicare Advantage might balance out these risks, but investors will watch closely. The stock is already significantly down 50 percent from its 52 weeks high of $630. Let’s see how it closes on friday

IBuyGPUs

“After-hours sell-off tied to new political developments in the “Big Beautiful Bill” that could reduce ACA subsidies and Medicaid enrollment—both critical for Oscar’s business.” They offer a Medicare supplement plan (Medicare advantage part c)

Rainyfriedtofu

ACA is a medicaid expansion. Oscar is very connected to medicaid.

mislysbb

Truly terrifying stuff. I’m worried about ACA subsidies taken away, which will also screw a lot of people (myself included). My plan is $375 a month (for two people); take away credits/subsidies and it would be closer to $1100. At that point, we just wouldn’t have health insurance because we couldn’t afford it. A very ugly can of worms being opened for sure.

NotAnotherEmpire

BBB makes 2010 ACA look popular AF.  250 Dem calls in House 

Bakingtime

Try middle aged sandwich generation women who have been in and out of the workforce for months and years.  You gonna hire a college-educated lady who spent the past two years cooking, cleaning, and maintaining a house for grandma, and juggling school obligations, transportation, puchasing, cooking, and doctors appointments for a disabled child-tween for ten years before that, but is doing it “for free” so doesnt make enough “earned income” to qualify for ACA plans?  Are you going to pay enough for them to afford health insurance AND a home health aide, personal chef, landscaper, and driver?  If so, DM me.  

STG2010

It will be worse. Not because it could not be bad, but because every state which has tried some of these "reforms" has failed miserable. The government is severely under-estimating how many people they are going to be kicking off these programs. [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/28/upshot/republicans-medicaid-work-requirement.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/28/upshot/republicans-medicaid-work-requirement.html) Firstly, it's super expensive to create the computer systems. Secondly, once you have the systems (like Georgia) once you get through the appeals process because it wasn't decided in time - they had enrollment of 7.5k when 100k were expected on a state program. There are 78m people on medicaid/CHIP. That's 78m serviced by Humana, UNH, etc. Now, make a buggy computer system and chop that down by half - or if Georgia is correct - to 1/10th. Remember the ACA website rollout disaster? This is a big, +12.5 billion dollar project whose cost will be born by the states but the timeline dictated by the federal government. This is assuming a cost of $250m to create the systems in each state, or $250m charged to each state after the software is made once and sold 50x. There is no way a project of this size will be under budget or on time. Government run Medicare/Medicaid services are also some of the lowest per-person cost with reasonably good outcomes - cost and effectiveness was at the heart of "Medicare for all" cry that you may have remembered from 2 years back - an eon ago in today's time. Medicare Advantage, which was offloading Medicare to private providers is generally terrible and what you often hear about. However, there's so much money to be made (cough, cough, UNH) that the idea was beaten down most likely by discretely working entrenched corporate interests who float free market solutions are always better. Not everything works that way because of profit motivations. Education, defense - all littered with companies that promised the moon, under-delivered and made a fortune in the meantime. But you're looking at an effective decrease in service by 2028 of probably 50% or more of the 78m who currently receive Medicaid. I can't see Kentucky having a spare $300m to throw at a "are you working" portal. And it does cost that much.