ASML

Equal_Bread9337

ASML is the real winner here

Curlymoeonwater

I learned not to barrel into stocks that had a headline but that I knew little about. I learned to be patient and follow a stock for awhile before acting - I watched ASML for a couple of years before finally starting to buy early this year, for example. I like low debt, ROIC, cash flow, a good moat, actual profits. On the other hand I've hung onto dogs like DVN for too long. Will the reinvesting dividends and waiting for someone to buy them for their valuable assets eventually work? We'll see. Thank God I own alot of index etf's also.

alderson710

Do you have an idea on how much time do you need to design a chip? Google TPU was launched in 2015. Then, you need fabs and capacity. Google is using TSMC, do you think TSMC can just press a button and increase their capacity without issues? Same with ASML and their machinery. You really need to learn a bit how all this works.

-Sliced-

I did the math. Five years timeframe like the original article: | Region | With top 7 | Without top 7 | |----------------------------------|------------|----------------| | Europe – STOXX Europe 600 | +45% | +35% | | US – US large caps (Syntax 500) | +109% | +82% | So US still significantly outperforms Europe, but US's Mag7 are more meaningful than EU's top 7. **Methodology** - for the Europe's Mag7 equivalent I chose: 1. Schneider Electric – +196% 2. Hermès – +159% 3. ASML – +135% 4. SAP – +120% 5. AstraZeneca – +84% 6. Novo Nordisk – +56% 7. LVMH – +30%

Senior-Preference678

The other 11 over the News: BNP.France BNVA.Spain EBS.Austria ROG.Swistzerland Enel.Italy Ora.France BA.UK SAF.France LDO.Italy ASML.Netherlands IFX.Germany

Ancient_Bobcat_9150

Probably ASML among them

xploeris

I wouldn't buy ASML above 900 unless you plan to hold for a decade.

Ok-Lifeguard9446

ASML was down 7% in one day last Friday.

Weak_Wrangler6396

We can analyze the current AI investment environtment as an economic system made up of multiple players (OpenAI, NVIDIA, ASML, Oracle, ...), each with their own incentives. For this system to be sustainable long-term incentives need to be aligned between players. Disclosure: right now they aren't. The entire AI investment hype relies on OpenAI. OpenAI is deeply unprofitable, they have around 13B$ annual losses, this is a basic economic equation: **Profit = price \* volume - costs** The core problem lies in costs, the enormous computing power required per prompt. And here is where it gets concerning for me: 1. Nvidia is a major investor of OpenAI. 2. If OpenAI made their business sustainable by reducing compute per prompt (optimizing models by requiring less GPU), then Nvidia revenue (or its expectations thereof) would fell because demand chips would shrunk. 3. Former point means Nvidia has no incentive to support a path where OpenAI turns out profitable by reducing costs variable. The other path for profitability is increasing the price \* volume component, and this is not a path forward either: 1. B2C OpenAI users are highly price-elastic, if OpenAI rises monthly suscription price to let's say +100$/month mosts users will leave for free or cheaper alternatives like Gemini or DeepSeek. So its a race to the bottom in terms of prices for these business model as competition increases. 2. B2B OpenAI users can be a bit more flexible, but even many SME won't be able to justify the cost, especially with open-source LLMs catching up fast. For it to be sustainable there should be massive ROI for AI implementation in these companies (cutting cost or increasing revenue). As a consequence If OpenAI increases price then price \* volume stays flat or even decreases, not solving the profitability issue. This is structurally unsustainable, just came to the conclusion this is a perversed system in terms of incentives.

Weak_Wrangler6396

There are strong concerns to claim this is a bubble. We can analyze the current AI investment environtment as an economic system made up of multiple players (OpenAI, NVIDIA, ASML, Oracle, ...), each with their own incentives. For this system to be sustainable long-term incentives need to be aligned between players. Disclosure: right now they aren't. The entire AI investment hype relies on OpenAI. OpenAI is deeply unprofitable, they have around 13B$ annual losses, this is a basic economic equation: **Profit = price \* volume - costs** The core problem lies in costs, the enormous computing power required per prompt. And here is where it gets concerning for me: 1. Nvidia is a major investor of OpenAI. 2. If OpenAI made their business sustainable by reducing compute per prompt (optimizing models by requiring less GPU), then Nvidia revenue (or its expectations thereof) would fell because demand chips would shrunk. 3. Former point means Nvidia has no incentive to support a path where OpenAI turns out profitable by reducing costs variable. The other path for profitability is increasing the price \* volume component, and this is not a path forward either: 1. B2C OpenAI users are highly price-elastic, if OpenAI rises monthly suscription price to let's say +100$/month mosts users will leave for free or cheaper alternatives like Gemini or DeepSeek. So its a race to the bottom in terms of prices for these business model as competition increases. 2. B2B OpenAI users can be a bit more flexible, but even many SME won't be able to justify the cost, especially with open-source LLMs catching up fast. For it to be sustainable there should be massive ROI for AI implementation in these companies (cutting cost or increasing revenue). As a consequence If OpenAI increases price then price \* volume stays flat or even decreases, not solving the profitability issue. This is structurally unsustainable, just came to the conclusion this is a perversed system in terms of incentives.

Lime1028

You make it seem like China is incapable of advanced manufacturing. They've got a space station for fucks sake. ASML has no competitors because of the cost to get caught up. It's not economical for another company to try. But China isn't a company, they're a nation very paranoid about self-reliance. At the end of the day NVDA is red despite the news, and massively down since the earnings pump. Take that as you will.

jensenskawk

Go read the latest research in process nodes and you'll understand why on ASML is the only company in the world that can make these machines right now. These aren't fucking TEMU trinkets, retard. CUDA is so entrenched in the software stack and everybody uses CUDA. AMD can barely advance with its ROCm. Other companies can and will try but they will be distant second. TSMC already building 1.4nm fab. Of course they forecasts the supply and demand - that's why they are building MORE FABS. They will continue to build more as FORECASTED DEMANDS ARISE.

Ok-Lifeguard9446

I just started investing individual stocks last Wednesday just before the start of this volatile period so I’ve been buying dips daily ever since. It’s only 5% of my total portfolio so it’s acceptable risk. I’m dip buying all in my portfolio: Nvidia Alphabet Microsoft Apple ASML First Solar I did a lot of research into these and am in it for the long haul, the more red days the more i get these at discounts.

CUbuffGuy

Quality: GOOGL, NBIS, AVGO, ASTS, ASML, AMAT, NLR, RKLB, OKLO, UNH Ez monies

Key_Journalist_36982

ASML and European listed NVD just dropped another 6% in morning trading, id get the holy fuck out guys. Close your account. Cash out. The bubble has popped and the recession is coming. Hide your money under the mattress and stock up for nuclear winter.

kaapooj

ASML -5%, Siemens Energy -7%

studentoo925

Nvidia will keep their margin no matter what prices the underlying companies will do, ASML sells machines at the price specified in contracts so they can't jack up the price whenever they want, and tsmc has to be somewhat careful with pricing, because if they go too far noone will buy newer nodes (or even switch to samsung/intel)

smartello

I’m not an expert, but with nvidia margins it seems like TSMC and ASML undercharge

IamRasters

ASML should be valued so much higher. They have the bleeding edge fab industry by the short and curlies.

ZEYDYBOY

Flawed logic as Nvidia doesn't directly employ those who manufacture the chips. Or all the licensing costs for software to design or utilize certain tech (like codecs for exmaple). But yeah a lot of money is gonna trickle down towards TSMC, which will trickle down to ASML, etc etc.

gopoohgo

Because Europe is pretty irrelevant in tech.   They have ASML, but that's it.

JohnnyStrides

They will try, just like they are trying to replace ASML & TSMC. But keeping them hooked on the NVIDIA/AMD ecosystem with cut-down chips ensures they stay reliant on Western architecture rather than being forced to perfect their own (inferior... for now) alternatives immediately.

Jerikolol

lmao wait till u see EU. Were gonna dismantle ASML and sell it for scrap metal

Frozen_Shades

ASML ouch

statetless

Why is now filling, upon US market Open? Not only Nvidia, but also ASML and AMD?

tired_ani

Time to buy MELI under 2000. 👌 I am buying MELI, Brookfield, HWKN ,Trimming ASML. Next week I shall be buy Constellation Software.

Neppingten

Can absolutely confirm. I was doing so much research, stock, sectorwide, regionalwide and did my own calculations and invested a lot of time in deciding where to invest my money. Tech just outperformed me several fold and I just dumb shifted most of my money to tech stocks, AMD, NVIDIA, Alphabet, ASML and others without doing much research before and the money just goes up. Feels terrible, but profits speak for themselves (for now)

kaapooj

ASML up 2.5%

redditdinosaur_

1. each incremental dollar of revenue has more leverage than the previous dollar. 2. you’re comparing revenue to market cap, which makes sense but is highly industry and margin dependent 3. the much larger driver is they forecasted revenue $3.5B higher than expectations 4. at some point the beats just accumulate - they’re guiding for a $5.5B beat over 2 quarters, which is for sure undersold because it’s guidance and which is also about half as much revenue as ASML (just picking a big company here) generates on much higher gross margin

GoZukkYourself

#NVIDIA SURGE SET TO FUEL YEAR-END TECH RALLY Wedbush Securities says Nvidia’s strong earnings and upbeat guidance should reignite the tech rally into year-end. Analyst Dan Ives calls it a “monster quarter,” with earnings and revenue—especially data-center sales—topping expectations. Most notably, Nvidia’s $65 billion sales outlook beat forecasts and is seen as a major catalyst for both the stock and the broader AI boom. Wedbush adds that concerns about an AI bubble are “way overstated,” and expects a strong day across semiconductor names like AMD, TSMC, and ASML.

Historical_Air_8997

That’s a dumb take. 30% of ASML’s revenue is from providing maintenance on old machines, that isn’t going to stop and if TSM and other customers cut their budget for new machines the maintenance costs are just going to increase giving ASML high margin consistent business. The net margins on the installed base segment is about 40% vs 25-30% for new machine sales. So ASML would be fine. It’s nothing like me doing everything I can to avoid updating my Epson printer and buying off brand ink

Historical_Air_8997

But who makes the lithography machines for TSM? ASML

Historical_Air_8997

The real shovels play is ASML. But TSM and NVDA, shit even AMD, are all pretty solid companies to own and at the forefront of the AI boom/bubble/revolution

elgrandorado

This is why I only sold 70% of my ASML stake, not 100%. Take some gains, and let the rest ride.

thetaFAANG

its because Google just cooked with Gemini 3 and they don’t need Nvidia chips as they manufacture their own chips for AI inference (all still bottlenecked by TSMC and ASML though)

suite3

True and I guess it's this mutually assured destruction that keeps the peace. China can invade Taiwan, Taiwan can sabotage it, and the west can pull ASML out. So everybody just stay calm and we'll all continue getting our chips.

ivvi99

Hm that is a fair point, but I think Taiwan could do so themselves, and at that point they wouldn't have anything left to lose. It's also arguable that allowing China to gain access to technology and production sites we've been witholding for them for years would be worse than losing it altogether (with some production still possible in Korea). ASML could also make the decision themselves if they deem it a threat to their position (though said fabs rely on consistent ASML equipment and engineers anyway). But admittedly a fair point and the current person mostly in charge of western negotiation isn't very predictable I suppose

1989H27

I've done well today. JNJ, GOOG and ASML have been my big picks for the last year. Sold a big chunk of my SP500 tracker today near the top in case the market dumps on NVDA earnings, will buy in again tomorrow regardless of the price. I feel like slightly down is more likely than up. Might even buy some MSTR because you KNOW a dumb bounce is coming.

La_chipsBeatbox

Well, actually 🤓 Nvidia should be replaced by ASML in this picture. Without them, NVIDIA would not be where it is now

Extras

Fuck it elon why stop there? I hear ASML needs a competitor why don't you make the machines yourself too?

Inevitable-Air-1712

No, if TSM were to suddenly be wiped out, the entire semi industry would grind to a halt. TSM for security reasons has their 2nm chip to only be produced in Taiwan. Those machines are to be destroyed is the PRC was to invade. Factories outside of Taiwan can produce 4nm - 5nm chips which isn't cutting edge. Also you can't just buy the machine from ASML and make your own line. All companies tried to vertically integrate but it failed massively. TSM succeeded because they just put their entire business focus on that. Also it's not just the machines but the people who operate the line have the expertise to produce those chips at such efficiency (low counts of defects). The next option if TSM was to go down would realistically be Samsung but that's like giving your chip design to a rival who has conflict of interest. Then there's intel who are more likely to produce defective chips than effective ones. No one even comes close to TSM when it comes to foundry. That's why the entire semi industry depends on that one country and if Taiwan was to get invaded, the entire tech industry is going to grind to a halt.

ThatFreakImHim

ASML for one

YsDivers

like they're not trying to replicate EUV, the current most advanced cutting tech that only ASML has. They're going for a different approach that in theory would yield better results Forgot what the process revolves around though

YsDivers

I Think they're skipping ASML's EUV process and going straight to something more advanced

bzl33

It's a sentiment thing at this point. Everyone was bullish on the infra costs until the last month. Remember $ORCL was worth $1T briefly with their outlandish forecast, now they're nearly down 40% in a few months. The energy bottleneck is the grid itself. > China pulling ahead because they have all the industry, metals and renewable energy infrastructure light years ahead. No, China has old ASML machines (at best) and no means of getting the latest NVDA chips. China is bottlenecked themselves but they have decided to do with what they can.

emynmuill

ASML anyway, how did that end?

tired_ani

I am planning to sell 20% of my ASML and plug it into one of BN, CSU or V/MA or MELI if they drop to 1900

Sea_Pear5265

That might be true in the long term, but players like AMZN, META, and GOOG can afford to make that gamble. These are AA rated companies who can borrow at cheaper rates that the US Treasury can. We won't know for a while if their debt fueled CAPEX bet pays off or not. In the short to medium term, huge continued demand from those companies for the products made by NVDA, TSM, ASML, and WDC figures to only get stronger on the back of these bond offerings.

elgrandorado

Sold 70% of my ASML stake. With all the talk of the AI trade, I figured it was time to take profits and rotate to other opportunities after years of tumultuous holding.

elgrandorado

I sold 70% of my ASML stake today. Been holding for a few years now. I thought it was time to take some well earned profits on the AI trade.

Sea_Pear5265

Maybe I'm stupid, but I don't understand why the consensus seems to be that META, Oracle, and Amazon issuing massive amounts of bonds to fund data center CAPEX is bearish for AI writ large. Won't that money be just be used to purchase more TSM and NVDA chips? It should be bullish for chip makers and ASML and data storage companies like STX and WDC.

Saeonic

!Banbet ASML 985 5D

Neppingten

I get the ethical reasoning and ASML is one of the top companies of the world. But If you want to make money with the stock you should buy low and sell high, not the other way around. And I think there is definitely not enough upside. Not much downside either, but you want to make money, not try to break even

adamsmith93

30 is virtually a guarantee. They are powering the AI revolution. EVERYONE needs them. They only need TSM and ASML

youbenchbro

I'm buying INTC next time it really dips. Maybe ASML too.

Neppingten

What made you invest in ASML in the first place? Is your thesis still intact?

TestingLifeThrow1z

28M, I have my 401k matched, roth ira the boring VOO, VT portfolios but I wanted advice on my brokerage stock portfolio. Holdings: Please advice any holdings I should add. I added companies that I believe can't be replaced in the long term for what they do and are diversified around the world. Cash: 27% QQQ: 18% GOOGL: 13% META: 9% MSFT: 9% BRK-B: 8% TSM: 6% ASML: 5% MELI: 5%

Terakahn

Whoever can replace ASML and do it well. Also, rare earth refinement. Sorely needed and it's never been more obvious. I'm very much not a pure play guy because I don't think that exists. Everything is interconnected.

WilsonKh

margin compression vs continual improvements - depends on which one moves faster. Nvdia got to where they are today because they out-improved the competition in the last cycle. ASML yes - but pretty much a China risk exposure thing.

Orange_Bananaa

Hmm that's interesting but wouldn't that result in permanent margin compressions? But also seems like ASML will come out as the winner in this

homiesexual_69

probably a no no for Tesla and Oklo. ASML has great moat but growth potential seems to be limited from here. Consider diversifying to Finance/healthcare as you're too much into tech stocks. ELV/UNH for healthcare and consider PayPal/sofi for finance.

TestingLifeThrow1z

28M, I have my 401k matched, roth ira the boring VOO, VT portfolios but I wanted advice on my brokerage stock portfolio. Holdings: Please advice any holdings I should add. I added companies that I believe can't be replaced in the long term for what they do. Cash: 27% QQQ: 18% GOOGL: 13% META: 9% MSFT: 9% BRK-B: 8% TSM: 6% ASML: 5% MELI: 5%

no_simpsons

AMAT, MDB, NFLX, GS, ASML. short LULU puts need a rally.

PaperHands_BKbd

To be more concrete and less cheeky... I'd say "things that worked before, with a new cast, and lower expectations" \- INTC fits here, but has already run, they still sell large amounts of things people pay for, and got overlooked because they weren't selling the new thing. New cast with Lip-Bu working all the angles and getting noticed. \- Going forward, I think UBER fits. They're not a growth darling anymore, but still the #1 company in a couple different fields that aren't going anywhere. The new management isn't new anymore, but feels like they still don't get full credit for how many things they do. It's not cheap, but might see a couple trends converge to help them out. \- SLB (or really any "oil" stock) - I like SLB because they're on the service end, and have everything needed to transfer to geothermal if that ever becomes favored. Any pop in either sector helps them out and they're trying to rebrand. Low expectations, no reason they can't exceed. \- NVO - worked before and still has core assets that will print for a long time, refocusing, new leadership, and the drama has them just too cheap right now... think ASML 6 months ago On the smaller side FUBO - teamed up with Disney, maybe you've heard of them. Low expectations because they have the less cool side of the streaming bundles, but sports are a thing people like ;) Right now priced like they're going to slowly evaporate. If they post even "mid" quarters, they should change multiples and start seeing effects of Disney selling ads and possibly bundles with ESPN/Disney+/etc... any subscriber growth plus any ARPU lift from ads or innovation and they get the share price out of "penny stock" land under $5, they could be in business. ACHV - gets labeled a biotech, but really licenses a known drug and are walking it through approvals to help people stop smoking. That's "worked before" with Chantix and other entries. Less people smoke, and that ship has sailed, but more people vape (new cast) and ACHV will be in line for early approval on that indication. Valued like speculative biotech, but with a $100M value voucher for accelerated approval that they can sell rather than dilute if needed.

MrObviouslyRight

which part exactly?.. Him rubbing his nose constantly?... The 2 times he mentions "*welders, plumbers & truck drivers*", pretending to care for the working class? When he tells the interviewer he should be asked a different question? When he brags about our military, without ever serving? Palantir's **AWESOME** support to deal with the Houthis? (that destroyed 3 F/A-18s and 7 MQ-9 reapers) When he makes up the story about PLTR Tesla drivers next to Bank Execs with broken down cars? When he forgets we rely on ASML (Dutch) and TSMC (Taiwan) for our AI chips? When he said bankers owe people money for saying not to buy Palatin at $6 or $12? When he says we shouldn't tolerate discrimination against white males? It was a cringe fest, sponsored by etoro, with softball questions provided in advance... and he fumbled. Whomever he looked at when repeating "I love it, I love it" was probably asking him to stop. Time stamp: [https://youtu.be/-6LakOrqDL4?t=937](https://youtu.be/-6LakOrqDL4?t=937)

Saeonic

Robinhood is so f-cked, It is gatekeeping trades for instant deposit by saying some are too volatile and some are not, I can buy PUTS in RUN, RBLX, and buy UVIX Calls, but if I want to buy an NFLX or ASML put it said no, I don't know if there is a monetary cap where I need to leave some left in or what but the odd rules are rubbing me the wrong way.

gopoohgo

Dunno. I think it will rescue some of the direct AI plays (TSMC, SanDisk/SKHynix/Samsung for memory, maybe ASML, maaaybe AMD and Broadcom). But the underlying questions about the return on all this massive capex will still remain.

gopoohgo

So the AI apocalypse continues huh.   Probably going to derisk the port and ditch CEG and ASML.    One thing the FOMC may not be considering as much, is what will happen to consumer spending if the market corrects to enters bear territory.   The K shaped economy will flatline as the top10% households start pulling back as well.

Iunatic

What even are european stocks? Nebius, ASML, Bank of Africa? LMAO

M6Df4

This is exactly it I think. Everyone focuses on a handful of companies like NVIDIA, ASML, traditional big tech, which have paths to long-term profitability thanks to AI. They forget the current demand for these products is largely driven by a long-tail of “AI” companies which will all go under once the money faucet is turned off and investors realize they’re just objectively shit products with zero chance of ever turning a profit. I think when the bubble pops that long-tail will struggle to survive. The infra providers will take a big hit, but over time the surviving companies with practical use cases (so not some bullshit with “AI” slapped on the end for no reason) will thrive and infra providers will recover. I’ll personally be buying us as much possible at that point. I’d even go as far as to say the bubble bursting needs to happen at this point to clean out the bullshit, grifting, and incompetence.

elgrandorado

Some people are getting killed. I'm beating the market nicely and one of my holdings is CSU, which I'm down on 30%. Three of my holdings (Nintendo, ASML, Google) make up the vast majority of my alpha.

Cantthinkofacoolnam

!BanBet ASML -10% 2w

corndog_messiah

I know ASML is up 50% in the last 3 months but is it too much to ask for another 30%?

MagnesiumOvercast

The top holdings in the Vanguard EX-US ETF are TSMC, Tencent, Alibaba, ASML & Samsung Electronics. Not exactly lowering your exposure to tech.

Glock7enteen

I’m bullish on semis and AI, just bearish on AMD. Nvidia, ASML and TSMC are the only stocks that can justify their valuations

Kantmzk

Why choose Dutch bonds over the long term instead of ASML if we are looking at the Netherlands? It is a better short term defensive move, but in the long term, equities will very likely outperform. I would probably just buy bonds if I could predict the future very accurately.

Fine-Drummer2604

NBIS is a Dutch company like ASML. They won’t pump the stock the stock like American companies do. So outlooks are always modest

Sandyrandy54

Yes ASML lithographinator and Nvidia Cuda software engineer here 🥱

SampleIndependent919

My port is 60% in asts but I gotta agree with you. It's short term neutral or slightly bearish. But long term, they will become ASML in communication space

AffectionateAge5184

So me and two buddies have been day trading options like responsible degenerates — solid data, deep analysis, backtesting the hell out of everything. We built a strategy that printed for weeks… and then the last two weeks came along and absolutely wrecked it. We broke the AI ecosystem into layers — NVDA obviously sits on the throne, but we actually ranked ASML higher because it’s basically the only company on Earth that can do what it does. Everything made sense… until the market decided logic was optional. Here’s the thing — day trading options is straight-up dangerous unless you have discipline. Hard stop losses. Strict entries and exits. No “I’ll just hold a bit longer.” That’s the quickest route from +80% to -100% before your coffee cools. Our core strategy: buy cheap short-dated calls (2-week expirations) on names our data flagged, hedge with puts for downside, roll and repeat. Simple — on paper. And honestly, if we’d just followed our damn plan, we’d be bathing in profit right now. Perfect example: IBM. We spotted that pop a week early. Our data was screaming at us. We even talked about how we’d play it… and then nobody pulled the trigger until it was already ripping on our screens. Moral of the story: the market doesn’t care how smart your model is if your discipline sucks. Don’t day trade options with money you can’t afford to lose. You’ll think it’s a cliche until it hits you in the face.

TestingLifeThrow1z

I've picked many winners in the past when it comes to individual holdings but failed to hold them. I decided to have a stock trading account that I'll "forget" about and wanted to hear opinions on my possible long term holds. This represents 5% of my portfolio and I have a VOO/VXUS portfolio and emergency funds already. Stock Trading Account Holdings (5%): Large cap: META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, BRK-B, Hardware/Software Application: DELL, ANET, CRM, NOW, RDDT, Semiconductors: ASML. Are these okay holds?

ToshikoWong

Wouldn’t have been better to buy TSM shares? At least you get dividends and AI driven company’s need their chips or: AMD, ASML, ARM, AVGO?

Nianque

So. Personally, I got out of AMD and NVDA and chose the etf SMH instead. Decent expense ratio and it gives me exposure to the entire semiconductor industry in all stages. When ASML or TSM do well? I profit. If NVDA somehow looses the ball? I haven't lost everything.

SpiritOfOptimality

NVIDIA, GOOGL, MSFT main 3, then TSMC ASML and some semiconductor ETF so if the circular ourobourous takes off which it very well might you can take off with it. Put in as much as you can stomach, rest the rest in vangaurd ftse all world or SPY and/or gold and cash depending on your personal risk tolerance. Fuck bonds. Leave it and don't rebalance. Also do this in 2023 like I did.

SpiritOfOptimality

NVIDIA, GOOGL, MSFT Then TSMC ASML and some semiconductor ETF 30% of your portfolio, put the rest in vangaurd ftse all world and/or gold and cash depending on your personal risk tolerance. Leave it and don't rebalance

spalkin2

"It doesn't even build its own chips" - so what? thats like downplaying ASML importance and only giving credit to TSM. What is there to build without ARMs designs?

darmokpicard

I’m upset that ASML isn’t there

repo_code

Is TSMC not a tech giant? Samsung? ASML? SAP? HItachi, Panasonic, Sony...? The only way the tech giants are all in the US is if you define "tech giant" as a large US tech company.

milkplantation

There is a lot of misunderstanding to address in your post. **First**, VXUS is hardly comprised of shitty companies. In fact, it's the opposite. [You can see for yourself](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vxus/holdings): TSMC, Alibaba, ASML, Samsung, HSBC, Shell, Toyota, Novo, Sony, Mistubishi, Shopify, Siemens, Unilever, LMVH **Second**, innovation has been a recipe for success for the United States market but make no mistake, it's hardly the only recipe for success for a business or investor. Many of the most successful American companies are stable compound earners who just do a couple of things very well: Berkshire Hathaway, Amex, Coca Cola, etc. If you look deeper, China is actually incredibly innovative and will lead the green energy transition. So you have exposure to that market, and you have exposure to a market like Japan that isn't as innovative, but is renowned for quality and craftsmanship. **Third** that Buffet quote is one of the most misunderstood quotes on Reddit. We’re different than his wife. Buffett's advice to his wife to use an S&P 500 fund is a risk-mitigation strategy, not a vote against VXUS (or even Berkshire). He prioritizes her security and simplicity over maximizing returns because she will not be able to actively monitor the company's new management after his death and she lives in the United States so a home country tilt makes a lot of sense. His own actions of keeping his entire fortune in Berkshire stock [and Berkshire investing heavily in Japan ](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/11/berkshires-japanese-stock-positions-top-30-billion.html)should make it clear that they expect other markets to outperform the US in the near term. **Fourth**, US equities vs International [are cyclical](https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/investing-for-growth/us-and-international-markets-have-moved-in-cycles.html). It's been a historic run for the US but many analysts from renowned firms like [JP Morgan](https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/portfolio-discussions-international-equities/), Morgan Stanley, and [Goldman Sachs](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/emerging-markets-stocks-and-currencies-are-forecast-to-rally) suggest International markets will outperform the US over the next decade. It's fine if Americans want to believe in American exceptionalism lasting forever, but there's a reason so many international markets are drastically outperforming the US this year and it's because smart money is hedging on the next decade.

1acedude

This is why I’ve been investing in Lam Research since it was $99. They manufacture equipment for foundry’s and other semiconductor producing equipment. But they’re not really exposed to AI because only ASML is. It still allows investors to product from the increasingly semiconductor economy we are moving towards but avoids any potential bubble

TollTroll

The exact same thing happened a little over a year ago. Nvidia crashed, ASML crashed, all that chip stuff crashed. It happened when Biden said he was going to restrict ASML exporting lithography equipment to China. And then it went right back up a month or so later. Big whoop.

Dutchy_3000

GOOGL ASML NBIS MSfT UNH AMZN

SirGlass

Its just because foreign has not performed well or as well as USA companies, its recency bias . Back in 2007 when foreign was outperforming USA people were asking the same questions "Why invest in USA at all when foreign out performs" Is TSMC a shitty company ? ASML, Samsung, Sony , Toyota ? The average PE of VXUS is something 16.91 where as VTI is nearing 30 Does that mean anything , well not in a box alone it does not but its is interesting to look at the disparity between the two.

Affectionate-Panic-1

Even internationally shitty companies tend to have lower valuations. Your top companies in VXUS like TSMC, ASML, Samsung, HSBC etc are not "shitty companies". Now you're correct during the past 30 years the US has produced more "unicorn" companies that have caused the US to outperform, companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Google etc. It's not guaranteed that will continue though. The US in recent history has generally had a better risk taking culture and the corporations here have been more willing to make changes, on the other hand places like Japan and Europe have gotten the reputation as having less innovation and risk taking. As a result PE, or price to earnings, are higher in the US indices than internationally. However there's no guarantee that'll continue, and there are periods like the 2000s and the 1970s where international outperformed during poor US markets.

Philip3197

Top Holdings: [](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/2330.TW/) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited**2.77%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0700.HK/)TENCENT**1.38%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/9988.HK/)Alibaba Group Holding Limited**1.05%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML.AS/)ASML Holding N.V.**1.01%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/005930.KS/)Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.**0.74%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SAP.DE/)SAP SE**0.72%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HSBA.L/)HSBC Holdings plc**0.64%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOVN.SW/)Novartis AG**0.63%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ROG.SW/)Roche Holding AG**0.62%**[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NESN.SW/)Nestlé S.A.**0.61%**

bleebolgoop

It’s a circular flow of money…and every company involved is vulnerable to the same single points of failure: TMSC and ASML. China touches Taiwan and its game over.

mtmzd2

I would not say MU is a bad investment, it depends on the investor’s perspective and willingness to invest into such cyclical business. I think Nvidia or ASML for example have some lucrative opportunities of growth, however they are expensive (or at least at fair valuation) but in the long term, these businesses will grow much faster than Micron. Outside of the semiconductor industry, Google, Microsoft, or Amazon are great businesses, but you can’t expect them to 10X in valuation. They have moats and enough cash to survive any downturns. Honestly as a retail investor, I wouldn’t leave any of the above companies and invest in MU.

bzl33

I'm being realistic here. We're lucky that we can rely on TSMC (Taiwanese) and ASML (Dutch) companies to handle parts of the chip pipeline. China needs to do all of this from scratch and/or have the same advances with older ASML EUV machines and worse fab technology. This is hundreds of billions in investment. and FWIW this sub clearly has China bots, anytime I say something that is remotely negative about China I get downvoted.

OrangeForeva

They literally can't. They don't have access to TSMC or the leading-edge nodes. ASML can't sell them the machines, etc.

bzl33

China can't though. They don't have Fabs at the level of TSMC and they don't have EUV machines at the level of ASML. The fear-mongering never made sense to me.