ASML

EmergencyFrogs

I really don't know why this sentiment that you couldn't possibly beat the S&P is so prevelant. I've increasing bought the S&P less as time has gone on. The individuals I invested in heavily were Taiwan Semi, AMAT, ASML, and Google and they've grossly outperformed the S&P. I mean even doing another index like QQQ, you'd have outperformed the S&P by a lot. Most people are buying VOO or some other weighted index, so it's not even truly that diversified.

hagos20

Ok I just read all the comments and I don’t think anyone asked what % of your total portfolio is MRVL, ALAB and ASML? That’s important to know. Also, how old are you? This also should weigh on your decision. Personally, I’ve held stocks to 1000% gains (i.e. NVDA) and am still holding. But on the flip side, I’ve held stocks that I was up 100s of % on and thought it would keep going, only to watch it go lower and lower and lower all the while thinking it’ll bounce (it did not). Now at this point I’m holding until/if it recovers but only because it’s about 10% of my portfolio. You don’t want to be in this situation. For example, if ALAB drops 30% next month, are you holding or selling? What if it drops another 30% the following month? And so on. At a minimum, as everyone else suggested, TRIM. In this weird market/Trump era, I take profits when I got them. Do I miss out on some more? Sure. But I’m fine with a few 100% in a few weeks to months. Then when there’s a dip, I buy back in. Rinse and repeat until the dip just keeps on dipping. To be clear, I buy the dip with 2028 calls. I use about 40% of my portfolio for options, the rest is shares in solid companies I’m holding till I retire (AAPL, MSFT, HD, GOOGL, JPM, etc)

ez399017

I added 10% to my ASML position today. It is a bit overvalued but it also has an impenetrable moat. Hard to divest a company with their position in the semi market.

ez399017

ASML still the goat of moat

ez399017

Good day to have my full port in MU, NBIS, ASML

prestodigitarium

Actively investing in Tesla when they unveiled the Model S, Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML in 2016, Apple when Jobs returned, SpaceX in 2018, Cerebras in 2020, my play money account has absolutely crushed my core index fund holdings - the play money account is now significantly larger than the index funds, which started much larger. Diversification is the safe path, but fortunes are made with concentration. And it’s easy to diamond hand stock that has no liquidity :-)

drew-gen-x

Another new ATH for $VXUS (World ex US) this morning. You have to watch where the money is going. Reddit's fave AI cap ex hyperscalers are spending their entire 2026 FCF plus even more debt plus diluting their shares and sending the majority of that cash to Samsung, SK, TSMC, ASML, etc. Add in the USA weaponizing the USD. 1st it was Biden freezing Russian foreign assets held abroad in USD and then DJT w/ his assnine tariffs. Foreign capital is being repatriated from US debt & stocks back into their home foreign economies out of necessity and now these foreign economies are showing massive growth.

davidbigham

AMAT and ASML been going crazy lately

Thisispaartaaa

ASML leverage

_Mido

Aight, I just put most of my savings into ASML, Apple and TSMC. Will try not to look at them for some time now lol

ShittyUsernane1222

how would markets react if all mag7 companies +TSMC +ASML did an merger into an single publicly traded mega-conglomerate?

Good-Tiger-1938

ASML sale would be blocked by NL/EU

Inevitable_Salt_1875

ASML is Dutch, Alibabito’s bag is probably ARM 😂 If he’s shilling ARM for QQQ inclusion you’re literally playing index front‑run roulette, not fundamentals. Trad clouds aren’t the comp here anyway, it is semis infrastructure and hype, so just treat it like a meme swing and set a level where you nuke it.

drew-gen-x

Until the AI cap ex hyperscalers stop spending their entire 2026 FCF plus extra debt and keep diluting their stock. none of them are buys IMHO. Buy what they are spending their money on. Look at $SOXX, $CAT, $VXUS (Samsung, SK, TSMC, ASML). I tend to look that all this cash is moving from the USA to Pacific Asia area. Nvidia ain't making any of these chips in the USA. The $SOXX has moved too far too fast so I like $VXUS. Follow the flow of money.

stonksf

You're retarded to think 85B buys ASML and intc

Howzitgoin

Execs don’t approve company sales. Boards that are put into place by large shareholders do. These companies aren’t startups with a bunch of insiders as the largest investors. ASML isn’t even American.

Deep-Age-2133

Elon should buy Intel and ASML and control the chip market, half cash half stock

vk_phoenix

ASML

Responsible-Age-1495

It was at $686, in a notable decline is more accurate. The war premium is puzzling, but the pump is just how the market gives itself room to run in either direction. Would you buy ASML or META at these prices? If the answer is no, I think we all know a market correction is likely in a rising interest rate environment. Warsh will likely have no choice after a summer of inflated gas prices.

AlpacaDream7

ASML dip was a gift from the gods

Les7X

jfc you fatties dumped ASML

Coda70

Solid. thank you. hadn't heard of that one. I've got some SEMI, DRAM and BXDC. I checked the holdings and SEMI sounds similar to yours but upon closer look yours is more AI driven. and I was looking for Hynix and ASML exposure. I'm buying chpx

Legitimate-Painter-4

ASML, silent runner, been buying since 2024 at 700, current price 1900

Marketdeigh

ASML is giving me a boner but Software is trying to put a finger in my dick

ez399017

My port is 329 $MU, 447 $NBIS, 18.025 $ASML. Am I properly diversified?

brookedow

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?

PrimePlaya

I see my comment went over your head. You said: “The more price goes up, the more competition can enter.” ASML’s price has gone up dramatically, yet there is still no competition. So by that logic, no matter how much MU and SNDK have gone up, not just anyone can enter the memory game.

MaleCowShitDetector

ASML is the one selling the machines, not RAM wtf are you smoking?

PrimePlaya

Not sure it works like that. By that logic, ASML would have competition as its price went up. But those machines re extremely hard to create. Same with memory fabs. Takes a long time to get them up, and even longer to train someone on it.

Vast-Palpitation-426

ASML, Airbus, Framatome, SAP, CERN...

AeneasKurtz

Europe is a tourist resort and a bunch of museums. The few industries still standing are constantly being sabotaged by their own people and institutions. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a campaing against $ASML or $ARM or $NBIS because "they're part of the AI boom, which promotes inequality and climate change!" A continent where the majority of citizens are Boomers and the few young people are immigrants on welfare is destined for a slow but steady decline. No innovation could possibly come out of there.

Lucid_Chemist

Goog, ASML, MSFT, WMT, Scwab, and capital one.

music_is_gud

Fundamentals wise AVGP leaps are okay. Technicals wise, I would buy stuff that is either breaking out or showing technical support. TTMI, SOXX, ASML, SITM, AAOI etc.

ForsakenExternal5784

Adding onto your optical loss problem, it might not even be fucking possible. So everyone that wants to go all in on quantum computing, just know the engineering challenge to make these things commercially feasible will make ASML look like a sandcastle

Josepth_Blowsepth

IIRC ASML has been at max capacity for the last decade and is difficult to scale with what they build being extremely unique

Bobertheelz

What about ASML? Maybe overvalued? Would TSM at their current price point be a good investment long term?

No-Drag-7913

Yes, it’s a core compounding company. You have very little risk holding it and assuming it will go up over the next several years. The PE is not even that bad compared to its competitors like Marvell. The price dropped 20% after earnings because it had a good runup recently and investors were taking profits - not because the core thesis changed in any way. It’s probably not going to see parabolic growth because it’s already worth 2T, but it’s a fortress company that should be included with the likes of nvidia, TSMC, and ASML.

neonam11

Just read a WSJ article about this. Your best bet is a European stock market ETF because it will contain more companies in the financial, industrial, healthcare sectors. The only exception is that it will contain the company ASML, responsible for making the equipments responsible for microchip production. The article argues that you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket: If this is indeed an AI bubble then an European stock market ETF will lessen your decline if there is a downturn, but if the AI revolution is real, you’ll be missing out on gains.

cleverhobbits

The thing is: Valuation is based on future (free) cash flows, growth, and revenue. Since their last quarterly result, they announced 3 deals: 1. Anthropic for around $15B per year 2. Google for around $11B per year 3. Another govt contract for like $5B+ So if these reported deals are real, they’re headed towards $50B in revenue per year with no growth. If you add in growth for Starlink and Launch Systems, it could be closer to $55B. At that point, the sales multiple is already under 40. And if they announce 1-2 more hyperscaler deals with their existing excess capacity at Colossus I and II, the revenue could hit closer to $70B in annual run rate. Re excess capacity: Given Musk’s friendship with Jensen and almost all of the other big tech players, SpaceX will remain first in line for new GPUs. He’s also forming new partnerships on terrafab with ASML and other key suppliers. We all know that SpaceX will keep getting more govt and AI infrastructure deals and will also get more countries to open their telecom markets for Starlink. All this without any of the outlandish promises made by Elon and trumpeted by his cult. I totally agree that $2T+ and climbing is crazy valuation, but the institutions are looking at this differently than retail and media.

Civil-Shopping-903

Bunch of mumbo jumbo words just to fail to prove your point. Jensen knows where every single h200 or b300 will be places in the world, ASML knows where every lithography machine will be in the world, you can't hide electricity consumption hot spots or hot islands anywhere in the world. SemiAnalysis figures out data center infrastructure from solely looking at satelite images. Can't get easier than that.

zordonbyrd

I use JP Morgan recommendations quite a bit. I've been doing so for several years. I've found that like all humans when it comes to stock picking, their analysts are fallible; however, I also think they've overall been very good over time. I've outperformed the market since I began about 5 years ago but as I've learned to hold through the ups and downs, my outperformance has accelerated and I rely on JP Morgan research quite a bit, almost exclusively, actually. Amkor, Marvell, the dip in ASML last year after their I believe Q3 earnings, MKS Instruments, Amphemol, Arista, Broadcom, these are all names to name just a few that I've done extraordinarily well in over several years because analyst research convinced me - and let's be clear, sometimes JP Morgan was alone in their strong recommendations. I remember when I first got into ANET they were seemingly the most bullish firm on the street. Same with ASML which was rated neutral by a lot of firms including Morgan Stanley. They also were big on Western Digital BEFORE the run up (which I didn't get in on, unfortunately).

xxxMarilee

About the same time it's Amazon's and Meta's turn again....never. At least you're not locked into shares like me. Just find another prospect. ASML my choice.

KybalionOfficial

On the hardware side, analog computing comeback and neuromorphic chips. On the AI model side, continuous abstraction space (specifically, hyperbolic latent space). EUV lithography has hit a wall, you can't make a transistor smaller than an atom, nevermind ASML has a 5-year backlog on orders anyway. Moore's law is deader than a doornail. But that doesn't mean progress is. The gains will come from the paradigm shift I mentioned. Look up Intel Loihi andd IBM TrueNorth...

whodowhodo

Have you all been sleeping on ASML?

FallenDeathWarrior

Why Arm and not ASML?

ethereal3xp

- ASML (designer) - AMAT (builder) - LRCX (carver) - KLAC (inspector)

Joejoecornrow

ASML !

TorukMaktoM

**What moved the market today:** Iran indicated a deal was close, prompting a broad de-escalation rally that lifted the Russell 2000 more than 3% and sent large-cap indexes sharply higher in what was one of the most volatile intraday sessions of the year. Intel surged 10.3%, Applied Materials rose 7.8%, and Arm Holdings gained 7.8% as the chipmaker trade roared back to life after last week's punishing selloff. The SpaceX IPO was a major sideshow, with the offering process closing tonight and shares expected to make their public trading debut as soon as tomorrow, with Elon Musk set to appear virtually at an ASML event to discuss Terafab, a chipmaking plant intended to supply Tesla and SpaceX. On the downside, Oracle fell 11.9% after its earnings report disappointed on cloud revenue growth, a stunning reversal for a stock that had been one of the AI trade's biggest winners. May PPI came in hotter than expected, with headline wholesale prices surging 1.1% month-over-month against the 0.7% estimate and rising 6.5% year-over-year, the fastest pace in nearly four years, adding to the case for the Fed to hike rates at its meeting next week. In a volatile session, crude oil hovered near $87 as Trump vowed more attacks on Iran and said the U.S. plans to take Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, at some point, a threat that if executed would dramatically reshape global energy markets. Despite the day's sharp gains, the **June 16-17 Fed meeting** looms as the single biggest risk event on the calendar. With CPI at 4.2%, PPI at 6.5%, and payrolls running double estimates, Chair Kevin Warsh faces an impossible first meeting: hold rates and risk losing inflation credibility, or hike into a market already rattled by war and a tech correction.

tachyonvelocity

If you’re not in one of or all of the 3 semiconductor materials companies, you’re missing out. LRCX AMAT KLAC, special mention ASML. These companies are literally forever holds because of oligopoly status. In fact most of semis are now oligopolies because of how specialized everything is, completely different than even dot com when companies had no moat. The technology to advance to even a fraction to compete with these requires a gargantuan effort. When competition happens, what you get are like software collapsing. There is almost no way new companies will come compete with them. Who will make a new company to compete with CPUs with AMD or Intel??? Who? Moat in investing is of paramount importance.

ethereal3xp

The four horseman - ASML - AMAT - LRCX - KLAC Killing it today!

toxicsmokinagimonkey

ASML isn't falling.

portbouncer5000

ASML, my queen

portbouncer5000

Need a ASML +5% day for the morale 

ez399017

ASML has just been steadily climbing the last year.

ArthoriasOfTheLight

One thing I am not sure of regarding the future of AI driven stocks, is where will the revenue come from to the ones at the end of the chain? ASML, TSMC, fabs and other hardware companies like MU, SK etc. are making their money now, that is fair. But what about the ones spending 100 billions on compute, such as google, openai, anthropic etc.? How will they get their returns on these investments? I doubt there is this much money from consumers to spend on AI subs? Let's say I don't think AGI is possible and never happens, and we just get stronger and better versions of the current chatgpt, claude, gemini models. What then? How are these 100+ billion investments worth it?

hi-imBen

the company that makes the next big thing or improves it's process for better profit margin could change over time and hard to guess, my picks today could be wrong in the future. I'd probably go for a broader exposure by picking an ETF and/or a mix of the bigger players for multiple categories of semiconductor stocks... like digital/cutting edge processors, analog semiconductors, memory, suppliers to semiconductor manufacturers (like ASML, AMAT, LRCX), and there's probably a couple other categories I'm missing. obviously the returns wouldn't be as good as picking the biggest winners with massive gains but it's less risk, and if someone was investing in broad semiconductor ETFs the past 5 years their returns would still be massive and multiple times the S&P500 return

Jadeclone1

Elon x ASML talks incomming

Snorlaxative9

felt like some hot shot locking in ASML calls at 3:59pm.. and it immediately drops another .5% AH

Apprehensive-Mine364

ASML I'm not holding currently. That said, I do realize that the ASML customers are a small group and demand is probably not easy to forecast. But on the other end....ASML also has a big share of that market as its not easy to start a hardware company that could compete with them. Not to mention I'm sure they have some kind of support contracts with customers.

Apprehensive-Mine364

Only tech I am long term investing in would be manufacturing like TSMC or something like ASML where even though they make chips....they have a diversified customer base and regularly see demand.

Jadeclone1

Elon gonna talk about pumping INTC during his ASML talk

Snorlaxative9

full port ASML and throw the phone in the river

JPL_WSB_BRRRRR

Running laps on spy and vwce this year. It's really not that hard when you are overweight on ASML 😉 https://preview.redd.it/4vou0g2ukh6h1.png?width=1188&format=png&auto=webp&s=46686322a2167e62eed010351b73529a625c81e1

Marketdeigh

The only thing that keeps my portfolio alive is ASML. Bought at 600 and is ever since I started trading 6 years ago my best stock ever. But I also own Software and Volkswagen which is eating me. On the other hand if that goes tits up I might be able to have kids one day

NewMetaTrades

Not financial advice, but if I were you and thinking rationally, I would split this into 3 tranches: 1. 200K BTC - I’m guessing you’re a believer and this way, you’ve automatically secured your cost basis + made a significant return. You can’t lose from this point on if this is your high conviction bet. 2. 200K on a Long term quality compounder- for me, this is an ASML, TSMC, GOOGL, type play. Essentially something you would never sell even if it corrected 15% in one day because you are CERTAIN of the fundamentals. OR, if you’re not a stock picker, VOO 3. Let’s be honest. If you’re in this sub, you’re likely a gambler. Feed the beast. This is your “fuck it, it could go to zero, but I’m gonna die trying to be a billionaire” tranche. Continue to roll the dice. This way, you’ve mitigated the downside and secured your future, but you also have a shot at that sub-1% yolo dream. Just my 50 cents

drew-gen-x

Yeah $VXUS is affected by the AI trade. But Taiwon semi, Samsung, ASML, and SK make up 7.9% of the market cap of $VXUS compared to $VTI having 30.91% market cap in the Mag 7 AI cap ex hyperscalers. Which fund is really overleveraged AI cap ex???

Opt1mus00

ASML

No_Current3675

LOL ASML green --> red --> green. Sold some shares 1800, shoulda bought em back.

TinyYak8793

I'm planning on buying tech dips, if the initial levels hold i'll get in there if they break i'll get in at the secondary level 1614 ASML -if breaks -> 1506 1927 KLAC -if breaks -> 1811 451 AMAT -if breaks -> 416 308 LRCX -if breaks -> 278 475 AMD -if breaks -> 370 864 MU -if breaks -> 810 if that breaks -> 640

coloredzebra

Followed an ASML whale for 1650p, I'm up 500% lol

elgrandorado

I remember when I was plowing into ASML and people were telling me why I was buying into an overpriced semi equipment company.... in 2023. Now I'm out of the semi trade, and I'm being told that I need to be balls deep? After already having made heavy gains from my two eventual picks (ASML, GOOG). It took a while for people to start piling into semiconductor stocks, but now the noise is booming.

One_Big2047

3 solid long term holds are GOOG, VISA, and ASML- cant go wrong with this trio folks

Xzlk

TSM literally said the new ASML machines were way too expensive and they weren’t buying that shit. Market didn’t gaf

Spac55

Who is buying KLAC tool, when cash crunch everywhere, chip manufacturing using old tool, without purchasing new KLAC, ASML, AMAT probably booking profit

Spac55

$AMAT $LRCX $ASML Who is buying new semi tool, when there is a cash crunch See $AVGO earning pain Many chip manufacturers can use old generation semi tool. No need new tool Make as much as possible, without new Tool investment, high capex, long lead time.

vlatkovr

What do you think about $ASML? Overvalued or still a hold?

Eagerbeaver98

Haha I see what you did there. Funny thing is big institutions are so dumb they couldnt get over their biases that agentic AI is not cyclic and therby we wouldnt have enough memory no matter a reduction is constraints lmao. They dont remember that TSMC and ASML at one point were cyclic too, and they still forgot even GPUs are still supply constrained, now theyre rushing to price it back in thats why UBS was so late 😂. Now jensen is making it obvious for them that memory providers have insufficient supply for 2030, theyre going to flood in now.

Fit_Yard1896

Been grabbing MU, TSM, and ASML everytime it dips. Been solid so far.

Alarmed_Guarantee140

Discovered ASML a couple years ago. Nobody would believe me when I said this company nobody had heard of had a literal monoply on a semiconductor industry bottleneck. I can't help but feel smug when those same people come up to me and say "Hey, you were right."

GatorBo69

Exactly. Pick the stocks you like and DCA buy them weekly. Set it to automate and forget it. I do the same for AvGO, MSFT, NVDIA, MICRON, ASML, and co, and have been for 3+ years.. I’m a big believer in DCA, but you gotta do it consistently

cowboynude

Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are the AI companies and/or their shares go up or down on the exact same narrative. Avoiding AI is not like avoiding hot dogs. Want to invest in oil? That goes up or down with AI. Want to invest in lumber? Goes up or down with AI. The entire global economy has been flat for five years if you take out AI. You’d have a higher ROI if you invested in US dollars and watched them get eaten alive by inflation than trying to un-AI yourself. Here is the cheat: if you genuinely believe AI is overvalued, you should buy **Berkshire Hathaway B shares.** **You heard me. Berkshire is the ultimate anti-AI long play if you’re too scared to short Nvidia and TSMC and ASML and Samsung and Intel.**

Amitriptylinekoning

Thoughts on fullporting ASML?

A55BAG

Reddit gets it sometimes right, sometimes wrong. \-PLTR was a reddit call \-RKLB has always been popular among redditors \-GOOG, ASML, UNH, AMD were clear reddit calls in 2025 I think overall group think here tends to work during bullmarket.

uibrethen99

Love me some ASML and ISRG and also looking into HONA

bellahamface

Intel is the complimentary play to SpaceX, as I believe the pullback is more about everyone liquidating to help get in on IPO. Not just Broadcom concerns which also had Ontel involved as it’s taking some of their Google business and likely future business long term. Intel is the tech behind Terra fab which is going to be discussed in more detail soon. Starting with Elon joining an ASML event. Safest of the semis IMO with the most asymmetrical upside. AMD overvalued and Nvidia is still strong buy.

LunaD0g273

ASML, Novo Nordisk, and nothing else.

Domingues_tech

You can’t time the market. But you can time valuation + emotional dislocations. When a great company drops because of fear — not broken fundamentals — that’s where opportunity lives. UNH. BRK. Google. ASML. REGN. The method is simple: Wait. Watch. Ignore the noise. Buy quality when panic misprices it.

Study_Queasy

The mechanics you mentioned seem correct, but there are two big reasons why the 'buying the dip' on Mag7 might not work as easily as it sounds, and why the chip companies got hit. First, a 2% shift sounds small, but 2% of the Nasdaq-100 is roughly $500 billion to $600 billion in total market cap. Shifting that much capital in a 15-day window is a massive liquidity shock. Even if retail traders try to 'buy the dip' on Nvidia or Apple, retail volume cannot compete with institutional algorithms "price-agnostically" liquidating billions of dollars of shares all at once to meet legal index tracking mandates. Second, regarding the chip companies (semis): The 'making room' logic applies heavily to them because they are the heavyweights now. Nvidia alone is nearly 13% of the index, Broadcom (AVGO) is around 5%, and AMD, Qualcomm, and ASML make up huge chunks. Semis aren't a side sector anymore; they are the literal engine of the Nasdaq-100. To find billions of dollars in cash, index managers must dump the hyper-liquid chip stocks alongside Apple and Microsoft. Your idea on a QQQ Covered Call is actually smart IMO and aligned with this thesis. Because the index will be forced to suppress its reliable cash-cow drivers (Mag7 and Semis) to absorb a highly speculative, volatile SpaceX launch, the overall upside of QQQ will likely be heavily capped or dragged sideways. Selling covered calls or call spreads to capture that premium while the index chokes on the reallocation would be a good play IMO. For some reason, folks on this thread are jumping on my throat. Looks like these are all Musk groupies or that they hate it when someone mentions reasons to be wary about in the market. I cannot change my opinion for those reasons. It is what it is.

CoolEnergy581

No TSMC is quite replaceable I expect, not in the short term but long term everyone is busy with replacing them. You must also consider that the EUV ramp up at ASML is real and that total TSMC euv ownership is now about 3 or 4 years of production and coming down even more in a few years.

vinkulafu

Please take one ASML EUV machine for me and I’ll swing by your place this weekend to pick it up. I’ll bring a six pack for your troubles. Also if they ask if I’m a shareholder, just tell them I’ll be a DRAM bag holder next week from my $55 CSP. Thanks man.

cowboynude

I agree with almost everything with one slight point of discussion. If China wipes Taiwan off the map, there are or will be replacement level fabs within 5 years. I don’t necessarily think ASML’s moat is longer (quantum). But insofar as ASML has at least some buyers outside Taiwan, and insofar as next gen chips can be made outside Taiwan faster than they can be made without deep EUV, I would argue ASML faces a bit less geopolitical risk, but also less growth potential.

cowboynude

ASML is my biggest position. If you think TSM is too sketchy avoid TSM.

EmbarrassedCow2825

I was going to say this. ASML is the crown jewel of Europe, and arguably one of the most (if not the most) important companies on earth.

Doclub29

ASML today for sure.

callsonreddit

What are some good dip buys at open that may run up 5%+? I'm looking at ASML MU SNDK VSH Maybe PL

Fair_Lychee2839

Yes and also think about ASML. They follow TSMC with a little bit of delay. Check the graphs. 

levendeabortus445

Nah I think ASML gets to a trillion dollar market cap faster than SAP!

Mammoth_Bank_7886

It's gonna be another shit day to conclude a shit week. All my calls are fried, and I'm tired. Wanna full port on something steady like ASML or MRVL and relax once I break even again.

cowboynude

I cannot fathom rotation out of AI. The genuinely revolutionary nature of this technology is magnitudes more powerful than wars, natural disasters, sketchy IPOs, etc. You don’t have to think Pets.com will survive 2000 but you have to see the internet will. I see AI the same way. I don’t want to own any AI companies but I want to own all the companies that will inevitably sell to whoever the inevitable winner is. I am personally comfortable with the weight already given to QQQ’s main holdings in more diversified index funds like VOO and even VT. I already own Nvidia and TSM and Google thru VT. Buying QQQ is just doubling down on hyperscalers, only one or two of whom will survive. That’s not even getting into the bad valuation around SoaceX (although I very bullish on SpaceX long term). And then with my satellite I am personally comfortable ally more comfortable with avoiding the American market entirely and betting directly on continued AI capex thru 2029 on ASML. 80/20 VT/ASML

cowboynude

High enough that I am spending 2026 in 80% VT and 20% ASML to ride the wave without the drama. If SpaceX changes the world, ASML gets more buyers. If SpaceX sucks $100b out of every other stock and causes a selloff, and the magnificent hyperscalers scale back capex, ASML gets hit less than QQQ. When the dust settles, I will buy back into QQQ one way or another. I will either have less shares or more shares. I think I will end up with more QQQ shares by pivoting away from QQQ for the next 2 months in a way that still captures some if not all tailwind. (Real risk is China. But why can’t we be friends? Why can’t friends let other friends sell deep UEV lithography to other friends?)