ASML

Dry_Ganache7488

I guess trolls or people who missed the bandwagon. I own now Micron, ASML and Intel. All of them got me at least +25% already, and I bought them late enough to miss the best run. The only companies who are having a hard time (especially Oracle) didn't popped in a day, they're on a constant descending pattern for months now.

monkeynutzzzz

Intel does not need to be the best in absolute performance terms; it only needs to be good enough and located in the right jurisdictions. As AI increasingly automates chip design and optimisation, traditional design moats erode and architectures converge, shifting advantage away from IP and toward manufacturing access, scale, and trust. In that world, location, political alignment, and assured capacity become the scarce assets — and Intel is uniquely positioned with leading-edge fabs in the US and Europe, ownership of advanced packaging, and first access to the latest ASML EUV tools. The winner is not the fastest chip, but the company that can reliably ship advanced silicon when others cannot. TSMC’s dominance carries an inherent strategic risk because the core of the US and global technology stack is effectively concentrated on an island just off the coast of China. Regardless of short-term political assurances, this creates a single-point-of-failure for advanced computing, where disruption does not require invasion—only blockade, coercion, insurance withdrawal, or export-control escalation. As AI, defence, and critical infrastructure become inseparable from national security, governments and regulated buyers cannot rationally base their technological future on a supply chain that depends on uninterrupted stability in the Taiwan Strait. Geographic concentration alone makes TSMC a systemic risk.

Kooky-Address-4598

Any thoughts on ASML?

AviPaz

They’re very different businesses, so it’s not really a “which is better” question. ASML is basically a picks and shovels monopoly for leading edge manufacturing. Slower moving, more durable moat, but tied to capex cycles and geopolitics. Micron is more cyclical. You can get huge upside in tight supply / AI demand periods, but you’re always exposed to memory boom bust pricing, inventory swings, and margins whipsawing. If your goal is a small “AI trade”, MU usually gives you more beta. If your goal is “own the infrastructure behind the bubble”, ASML is the cleaner long duration bet. Not advice, just how I’d frame it.

CherryRoutine9397

ey’re not really substitutes, they’re different bets. ASML is basically a monopoly on the picks and shovels side. Every advanced chip roadmap depends on them, regardless of who wins AI. Micron is more cyclical, higher upside but also way more sensitive to pricing swings and memory cycles. If you think AI is a long, sustained build out, ASML is the cleaner hold. If you think we’re closer to a shorter boom phase, Micron probably moves more but you’ve got to stomach volatility. Personally I’d treat ASML as infrastructure and Micron as a cycle trade. Or just split and size it small like you said, because both are solid businesses even if AI hype cools off.

fire_alarmist

My bet is market looks down, there are a bunch of articles coming out about how AMSL and the whole chip industry is going to get exposed(correctly) this earnings and that will be the nail in the coffin. ASML starts to dip down, people load puts. Because the stakes are so high and there are so many companies still left to announce earnings afterwards and so many big tech positions associated with chip making that ASML earnings is fraudulent and the price action is even more fraudulent and we see a big +10-20% afterhours candle out of no where to lure dunces back into big tech names.

woome

You're asking about, let me see... comparing two companies that do unrelated things... for a half year time horizon... that you are bearish on but still bullish on... but only for a small investment... just to chase hype but you've done "research" in the sector. - MU and ASML do unrelated things. Comparing these two is like comparing KO and WMT because they are consumer staples with some overlap in the supply chain. - What do you expect when asking for predictions on half year time horizon, for one of the most capital intensive industries that require multi-year projects? - You want to invest even though you believe it's going to pop. This means you aren't the "huge believer" you think you are, or you think you can time it within a half year time frame. - You're already biased, so any "research" you do is moot. You're just trying to validate a conclusion you've already made that was based on hype. And now you're seeking approval from social media. - Why does any of this contrived, backwards logic even matter. You're only putting in a small fraction of your portfolio. Go put it into an ETF if you're just looking for limited exposure.

Internal_Necro47

Yes but as others have said ASML Is an equipment maker (for lithography) and LRCX is an equipment maker (for etch) where MU is a chip maker much like TSM. It's apples to oranges but they both grow on fruit trees. It's better in my opinion to compare the chip makers to the chip makers and the tool makers to the tool makers because they're fundamentally different parts of the chain and function differently. You are correct though they're all a part of the same bubble if and when it pops.

JustBrowsinAndVibin

MU’s forward PE is still just 12. I think it settles somewhere between 15-20. So arguably still a better deal than ASML.

Special-Tap7456

ASML is more picks and shovels with near monopoly tools, while Micron is much more cyclical and tied to memory pricing. If you want steadier exposure to AI capex, ASML is usually the safer bet.

Ruoppolo

Are you saying that this is a high entry level? Therefore not a good entry point? High valuation is relative, especially if the AI bubble does to Micron or ASML what it did to SanDisk and we get a 1000% per year 

Ancient_Bobcat_9150

OK, fair enough. I do think too that 1/2 year is short. But at this time if you pay both micron and asml at ultimate high valuation - you'll most likely make little gains, or even lose, it's a if the bubble does burst within that time frame so I would bother unless there is a big correction drawdown. For which of the two, I cannot say. ASML has arguably a stronger MOAT, but Micron probably higher short term growth explosivity. I am long term investor so I'll always favour - if hesitation, the stronger long-term option which is ASML (at least, in my opinion)

Ancient_Bobcat_9150

I don't quite understand that mindset how can you go from: I am a huge believer in AI bubble, and that it will pop, so it will be a short ride To: which ai tech would at the height of their valuations would you recommend. The two are different. ASML makes highly care of complicated machines that enable chips manufacture. Micron makes these chips. So what would you want to be exposed to?

BourbonSupreme

That strategy doesn't work.   Look at ASML, currently trading at $1387.  So the strike you are looking at is $416.  So I scroll through all the expiration dates until I find a date where I can sell an option at $416.  Earliest is June 18, 2026, premium is $0.25. So your strategy is to hold $138,700 cash as collateral for 5 months to make $25 profit.  You can do this 2.4 times a year, so in total you collection $60 profit on your 140k.  That's like getting 0.0005% interest on a savings account 

Fit-Gear-8769

Wednesday has ASML in the am, LRCX in the pm. This could be interesting on Thursday.

longGERN

Didn't want to hold META in case of another wall street knickers wetting from capex V/MA moon or good results and flat due to the looming issues ASML I think ran up too much and they don't usually give optimistic guidance so I think it'll drop

spacedaddybranson

last chance to get TSLA before it turns into ASML

Aron_b

Wednesday could be crazy, MSFT, META, TSLA and ASML, 4 of the top 20 market caps atm. Add the FOMC decision on top. Inb4 flat market that day.

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML 0DTE's are a fucken wild thing Jan23 1400C were $11 yesterday, and I just picked up 4 for 50c a pop.

Much_Candle_942

Agreed. Foundry problems? Nothing that a gunpoint deal with TSM / ASML can't fix 😉 

Geddagod

>Intel is the American horse in the foundry business. And yet Trump is forcing TSMC to build a shit ton here. >Intel is also working actively with ASML on next gen High-NA EUV development for 14A. The overall benefits of high NA EUV for 14A is pretty debatable. Intel also has standard EUV versions of 14A with the same yield as their high NA EUV variant. >Companies like nvidia did not invest in intel just to appease the turd; intel has some legit tech in the works. None of which seems to leapfrog TSMC on the foundry side, or AMD/Nvidia on the design side.

Lofi-Fanboy123

thats great for ASML

asaural

You should have a look not only on tungsten but also molybdenum. Those are critical for a very specific domain: Waffers for electronics. If you look up on how a waffer is made these days, there is only one machine that can do the job made by ASML to have the 2nm resolution. They are using very specific mirrors to concentrate the energy for x-rays made of those. And when you see how they wanna scale the chip production, the need for those will rise. There are 2 stocks I am eyeing since a while that showed growth: $ALM: Almonty industries  $FJZ: Zijin mining group 

istapelk

Some truth, but exaggerated. The U.S. has grown faster, mainly due to Big Tech and deeper capital markets. Europe lags in consumer tech, but it’s far from irrelevant. Its strength is deep tech and industrial infrastructure, not apps. ASML isn’t a one-off, and it’s not alone: Siemens, SAP, Airbus, ABB, Novo Nordisk, Infineon all matter globally. The U.S. leads in scale and speed; Europe in precision and system-critical tech.

istapelk

Ever heard of ASML?

Silver_Chamberlain

Interesting to note that ASML is currently the sole supplier of commercially viable EUV machines. These things are impressive feats of engineering with a price tag to match at $400 million each.

Altruistic_Emu_146

Maybe not ASML. That would only be one share.

sorvetes

MSFT, META , TSLA and ASML next wednesday.Now that’s a day. PUTS ON EVERYTHINg .

_Lucille_

Intel is the American horse in the foundry business. Intel is also working actively with ASML on next gen High-NA EUV development for 14A. Intel's finances likely arent going to look good "for a while" but I think it is still a very valid pick up during dips. Companies like nvidia did not invest in intel just to appease the turd; intel has some legit tech in the works.

longGERN

Sold my ASML, prepare for a quad after earnings

steffur

Sold my puts on MSFT yesterday for a nice profit, now puts on ASML because their production is limited and price is fixed and puts on TSLA because FSD won't be ready in 5 years and they are being beat by price, quality and image by their competitors.

longGERN

ASML uppy or reverse uppy?

Lucky-Dust-7209

Rutte warned him about the Dutch and withdrawing the Dutch pensions out of America and losing more control on ASML ..

Follow_The_Lore

ASML 1T market cap by end of year?

Wise_Tomatillo_3825

ASML is basically an American company at this point. 

skilliard7

>put that money into Europe, where there are still lots of great companies. What great companies? pretty much the only one that comes to mind is ASML...

BernardoDeGalvez

I live in Europe and it is impossible for us to overcome the US. Not even all together. Too many regulations. Look at the companies, besides ASML and NVO, which companies are groundbraking?? My country saw the highest growth of Europe in their stock markets. Besides 1 GREAT company, all of the index is full of utilities, banks and old state monopolies that are run by fools. And even if they wanted to grow, they can't. And if you want to creat a Palantir, Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet... company. You can't. They kill you even before you make your first buck with al the paperwork. The EU markets were undervalued because they were overlooked, but it is IMPOSSIBLE for us Europeans to beat the US stock market. Never ever. Not happening.

daedalus_dance

I see your port is not going to like the facts here but its actually fine to keep AWS and ban Facebook and doing so would still have a funny affect on the US stock market given the concentration in MAG7. And before you go "hurrr durrr but they have this other thing", europe too, has other things they depend on, like ASML. This is the stupidity of hard ball.

CMDR_Shepard96

Wed 28 Jan - along with ASML & META.

CMDR_Shepard96

MSFT & SPY have destroyed me. ASML, you're my only hope.

Stocks_N_Bondage

Is INTC using ASML equipment?

981flacht6

The orders are all locked in through 2026 and into 2027. Not sure if you took a listen to TSM, ASML, Nvidia, Micron earning calls lately but ...it's not speculation.

Outrageous_West_1564

There are many ways. A European wide digital tax would hit Google, MSFT, meta, Adobe and other companies hard. While the European country's need some of these products like Microsoft, others like advertising on meta and Google can be reduced easily.  A European wide minimum tax would hit companies like Starbucks hard.  Other ways beside the taxes: - ASML is a European company. Open the export of these machines to China and close it to USA and you have an US Stock crash within minutes after just talk about it seriously. - full stop of us military components / systems and produce in Europe. - start looking for new Partners. China has no hate against Europe, it's the US with it's dollar dominance that they hate.

marima33

I liked ASML and NBIS for awhile and considered if SIEMANS has any growth left. I ended up using KTEC for a bit of diversity via Hong Kong, but I find it hard to get excited about any theme.

Mean-Evidence-4056

imagine they test his patience and he decides he also wants Denmark because we need ASML to be American

sdafsdffsad

lol no. Europe does not need the US, they produce nothing of value of Europe. Tech and software are easily replaced but you cant replace ASML for example. And pls understand what will happen the moment EU and UK will ban retail and institutions to invest in US. SP500 will not be able to process that liquidity, EU + UK is a big part of the biggest bonds holders. Trump cannot afford bullying europe.

Lofi-Fanboy123

ASML likes that

sdafsdffsad

What does the US has that we want? We can do without facebook for a while. EU has ASML and the money to keep the US floating. US needs EU more than vice versa

M4roon

and ASML's lithography shit is so advanced cutting edge physics and comes from an ecosystem of single source components. No one is scaling that. It's everyone's only fruit basket. And if EU disrupts the supply for itself, the world goes south real quick. The chip market is so precarious and has no redundancy, it's nuts how we got here.

bzl33

"tech" at this point is AMZN/MSFT/GOOG/META/OpenAI/Anthropic + the chip companies associated with AI. Only company based in the EU among those is ASML.

movdqa

The countries that responded forcefully (where possible) are the ones that Trump has backed off on. I think that Canada has done a really good job navigating Trump so far. Their economy has taken on damage but they are reacting strategically to survive. Europe also has ASML and an export ban to the United States would be a significant threat.

I-vonatinkle

I'll be picking up some ASML

composer98

That simple allocation looks pretty brilliant, really. The only fairly minor duplication is in the big Asian stocks, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tencent, ASML, Alibaba. All the fees are as low as possible.

whodowhodo

Well unfortunately there's a bunch of essential US companies who supply ASML..

WildTadpole

How about they just don’t export ASML 🤔

Far-Guava6006

If it does that, there will be no ASML for anyone as 55% of components come from the US.

Far-Guava6006

Fucking with ASML is a lose-lose as many of its components and software come from the US. Cutting off supply would result in the US cutting off component supply so that no one gets them which just fucks everyone. That will never happen baring extreme circumstances (like actual war declared)

thinkorscream

This is an interesting conversation, to me. I am constantly learning too. I think I am following your narrative. I do a lot of strangles and get ITM often on these AI stocks. Is it possible the free money you refer to is due to time duration of the calendar that you sold ($150 Dec)? Similar to your roll, I was recently rolling up call strikes by $10 and $20 (with a credit, no less!) on ASML. I guess it is the high IV that makes this possible.

CMDR_Shepard96

Maybe ASML JAN30 1500C weren't a good idea last week.

CMDR_Shepard96

I got out of gold and into MSFT/ASML/SPY That seems like a dumb idea in hindsight

longGERN

Up 90% on ASML, wanna hold but don't want some bonkers drop and lose most gains

didkhdi

They got ASML us isn't doing shit.

CMDR_Shepard96

LTR & LYC giving my port a taste of what SPY/MSFT/ASML will do to it when the US market opens..

CMDR_Shepard96

So, what happens to my ASML 1500C at open 💀

BleuBrink

ASML is dutch not US

WeinMe

Even though I don't believe it to happen, it wouldn't be because of existing products, but because ASML has bound 100s of billions into equipment to meet demand. They have to keep producing, even at much lower prices - and that will turn into cheap graphics.

James_Rustler_

German market down 1.06% as of now. Worth noting the German market is thin on US equities, so this is directionally useful but not true price discover. Additional tickers. GOOG -2.15% $PYPL -1.72% $ASML -4.05% $NFLX -1.29% $AAPL -1.56% $HIMS -7.62% :O

Status-Being-4942

I just checked, I'm Dutch, there's no mention of ASML.

keelanstuart

Read my other reply about ASML and Novo Nordisk. Watch what happens if they won't do business with the US any more.

keelanstuart

I had already been saying that if Trump acquires Greenland by force, if it doesn't immediately kick off WW3, it will still likely end or strain many business relationships... specifically those with ASML and Novo Nordisk - resulting in really bad things, exactly as the AI said. They don't make you read *Animal Farm* in high school because there's an actual talking animal society; just because something is fiction doesn't mean it's without value.

anonymous__ignorant

As soon as these talk become reality, ASML will become an EUROPEAN asset. Probably nationalised by the dutch and guarded with all available resouces. In the meantime alternatives will be developed and Europe might be forced to develop a domestic chips industry . Probably another tech race. In the meantime the US will be crushed by sanctions from all directions.

procgen

Sure, ASML could commit divide if they wanted

procgen

China and the US are the only countries who could pull it off. The US has the core EUV tech already (since they developed it) which does put them ahead of China. And they have the money - this would likely be done in a consortium with Nvidia, Apple, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, etc. who have absolute mountains of money to spend. it would cost an absolute fortune and take years so it’s obviously a last resort. The status quo is still very much the best arrangement for the US and ASML.

procgen

No. They’ll just ensure ASML no longer produces EUV machines.

anonymous__ignorant

> They’ll be required to adhere to their agreements with their partners. Aah, like NATO. i see now. You understand that Going against an ally opens a different can of worms. ASML can simply be dissolved. We'll call it LMSA now and it will be governed by the EU body. Wacha gonna do Donald? Put more tarrifs? Invade Tenerife next? Beat yo wife?

procgen

Of course they work like this - see Nord Stream. ASML will no longer be able to produce EUV lithography machines if they break their agreements with the US.

anonymous__ignorant

Yeah, things dont really work like this. ASML can be ok, ZEISS is still a thing, and other miriad of suppliers. It;s enough for some of them to boycot ASML just enough to prevent ASML doing their job.

procgen

They can’t, per their agreement with the US. You realize that if ASML gets cute with the government they’ll get Nord Stream’d, right? Nobody is playing around here - the tech is far too sensitive to risk it falling into the wrong hands. It is certainly in the best interest of ASML to continue cooperating with the US.

anonymous__ignorant

I think ASML can simply take a vacation for the next turbulent period. When shit breaks, they'll call back as soon as they return to office.

BleuBrink

But Taiwan just had their tariffs slashed. And ASML has monopoly doesn't matter how much you tariff it.

procgen

The moment ASML violates the controls is the moment they get Nord Stream’d. that tech is waaay too sensitive for the US to risk it falling into the hands of the wrong people.

GreedyTexas

ASML down -4% in EUR lol

happy123z

Licking my lips looking at Nordo. They'll probably have a larger dip here because they're a Danish company, right? ASML is, too. Watch the opening dip and lock in some discounts. Might even freeze IBRX and other's rallies so I can scoop them up.

Deep_Load_67

Some actual numbers from the German exchange what you would consider future markets: TSM -1% MU -2% NVDA -3% ASML -3% Nebius - 4,5% Novo Nordisk -4,5% RKLB -7% Defense (Rheinmetall) +2,5%

Big_Fix9049

I am not the right person for this discussion, but I'll gladly listen to others an æd their opinion and insights. To just explain my rationale behind my comment on NOW and my suggested candidates: My personal investment criteria requires a company to have a consistent increase in revenue, net profit and FCF. Ideally more cash than debt and fairly high profits. If those criteria are met, I'm looking at valuation metrics. I'm most confident in methods like DCF and forward PE (where growth is included). Lastly, I aim to find support levels where I confidently add shares (moving averages, oversold RSI etc). IMHO, this is the best I can do that keeps me sleep well at night. While I understand that past performance does not predict future performance, it gives evidence that the company has excelled in the past. How (potential) competitors or technology may or may not disrupt a company's performance is beyond my capabilities to fully understand as there are too many unknowns involved that no one (even experts in the industry) can fully comprehend and predict the impact and consequences. It's only a best guess. Best example is chatgpt versus Google Search. I'm very satisfied that I kept investing in GOOGL last couple of years despite whole Reddit claiming that GOOGL is gonna die because of chatgpt. Same with ASML and Meta etc

Orangpootay

In what way? ASML are the leaders in advanced lithography machines and they’re Dutch.

Glove5751

The US is more reliant on ASML than ASML is reliant on the US. Not to mention, if a crisis happens, Europe will without fall into the arms of China, and we can already see it happening with some countries, and Canada. The US will really fall from Grace while Europe will be hurt like crazy, but we will get back on our feet.

Splurch

> It’s a huge leverage for EU. USA entire multitrillion tech industry relies on ASML. Ofcourse, fighting is bad for everyone. Just pointing out USA pinchpoint. The world's multitrillion tech industry relies on ASML. ASML requires licenses/software/hardware from the US government and US companies to produce machines. At minimum, if EU denied ASML the ability to export to the US the US would just ban them from selling their machines to the EU. Threatening ASML is a lose-lose proposition.

zxcvbnmqwerty12345

It’s a huge leverage for EU. USA entire multitrillion tech industry relies on ASML. Ofcourse, fighting is bad for everyone. Just pointing out USA pinchpoint.

Splurch

> If EU bands asml export and favors china, it would be like catastrophic attack on usa economy. Fighting over ASML is a losing proposition for both the US and EU. Only ASML can make the most advanced machines and they requires parts/software/licenses from the US. Neither side wants to cripple ASML as it would be a huge negative impact to everyone.

VictoriaIsReal

I'm a bit heavy on RKLB, ASML, and NVO

lynxloco

I work at ASML, I'll see if I can verify this because I have never heard about this before.

BitcoinOperatedGirl

They can certainly buy Chinese hardware to spite the US. You also have to realize that ASML is a European company, so is ARM, and most of the world's fabs are not in the US.

Michigan-Magic

Lmao, even funnier. The US has denied advanced semi conductors to China and Russia. The company that makes the machines that enables those advanced semi conductors is in the Netherlands, a NATO ally. US pulls out of NATO, why would ASML / NATO not sell to China / Russia? China is literally spending tens of billions of dollars to develop.the tech. Supposedly, they may be ready to produce actual chips in 2030. The US likes to pretend like it's better than the sum of the parts of NATO, when its strength is in welding the western world it created to defeat the Soviets. EUV - China: https://www.powerelectronicsnews.com/china-invests-e37-billion-to-develop-domestic-euv-lithography-systems/ https://overclock3d.net/news/misc/china-sidesteps-us-ban-with-euv-chipmaking-breakthrough/

Orange_Codex

ASML makes that more than a little bit difficult...

Michigan-Magic

Right now the US and the west have a stranglehold on advanced semi conductors. There is a single company in the world has mastered the technology related to extreme ultraviolet lithography. It's called ASML. It's based in the Netherlands. Through NATO, the US can deny this technology to China and Russia. Pull out of NATO and the US loses the ability to prevent these semiconductors from getting into the hands of its adversaries. Healthcare for military hegemony seems to be a fair trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography It's more than just this though. China has become the manufacturing superpower. The US can only match China through its collaboration with its allies. Push comes to shove, by itself, China probably wins in an every man for itself environment.

Michigan-Magic

Right now the US and the west have a stranglehold on advanced semi conductors. There is a single company in the world has mastered the technology related to extreme ultraviolet lithography. It's called ASML. It's based in the Netherlands. Through NATO, the US can deny this technology to China and Russia. Pull out of NATO and the US loses the ability to prevent these semiconductors from getting into the hands of its adversaries. Healthcare for military hegemony seems to be a fair trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography It's more than just this though. China has become the manufacturing superpower. The US can only match China through its collaboration with its allies. Push comes to shove, by itself, China probably wins in an every man for itself environment.

steffur

Yeah and we can trade with other parties as well ofcourse. Using ASML is a bad example though as some very important parts of those machines are made in the USA. Would be impossible to make them without the USA at the moment. Maybe in the future.

Accidental-Dildo

Well, you *could* throw some tariffs out... but it'd be better to just say "ok, charge Americans more" and then tax big tech. Then, work on subsidising domestic tech to replace US tech. Or just ban ASML from distributing ex-EU.

DoubleTapTheseNuts

ASML doesn't exist or continue to exist without the US. Try and do a little more research.