ASML

Creative_Account8483

Huawei puts out dummy chips with fake numbers to save face for China, but the reality is that without ASML litho machines, they are 5-10 years behind. China might manage to steal the tech (they are desperately trying, and IMO they eventually will), but until that happens, they will never catch up. Inb4 “CHINA DOESNT STEAL!!!”. Yes, they do, relentlessly. There are entire industries founded on stolen american IP. Source: father in law works high up at a chemical engineering firm that does international business. They mark up prices to the Chinese because they know, eventually, the IP will be leaked/stolen

wighty

Last I read anything about it was at the end of 2025: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/ Short of completely ripping off ASML I'm skeptical they are even 5-10 years behind, likely more.

pirateRoyallty

ASML

Signal-Shoe-6670

If you already own a global index fund and want some concentrated AI exposure, I’d personally rather own the infrastructure chokepoints than the speculative edge names. TSMC and ASML are interesting because they sit underneath almost the entire advanced compute stack. TSMC manufactures chips for Nvidia, Apple, Google, AMD, Broadcom, Amazon, etc. ASML supplies the EUV lithography machines required to produce leading-edge chips not just for TSMC, but also Intel, Samsung, Micron, SK hynix, and others. There are real risks (especially geopolitics with Taiwan), but these are deeply embedded, hard-to-replace companies with enormous technical and ecosystem moats, and expanding. That feels very different to me than betting on who wins speculative quantum computing 10 years from now.

ForsakenExternal5784

People constantly hail ASML as the holy grail of engineering (and I agree it’s crazy impressive) but making a commercially viable quantum computer will make that look like building a sandcastle. I don’t think people quite understand the task of trying to scale up what is an already faulty 1000 qubit processor to 500,000 to work seamlessly enough to do real work. I like the prospect of quantum computing generations from now, but I think people who are terrified of it being right around the corner are sorely mistaken.

encony

ASML made +15% since OP posted - yep turned out well!

Crafty_Tip3558

ASML when I realized they are the absolute top of all AI. Like literally everything starts with and comes back to ASML. Not only that, but they have a complete monopoly on EUV technology. I saw a YouTube video about them and understand (as much as I can) why their research and technology are just generations beyond what any company will ever be able to achieve.

Not69Batman

NVDA Gross Margin was 74.9% in the latest quarter. TSMC Gross Margin was 66.2% in the latest quarter. 20% of TSMC revenue comes from NVDA. ASML Gross Margin was 53% in the latest quarter. 45% of ASML revenue comes from TSMC.

Treverer

So no weapons for Taiwan means calls on ASML?

MitchCurry

CRWD, DDOG, and ASML ATHs. My portfolio is rejoicing. 

SlideIll3915

ASML, Shell, LVMH, SAP, Novo, Nestle, VW. hahahahaha.

GS4WhenNinty

This is 60% of my portfolio while the rest is in indexes: Amazon 23% ASML 22% Uber 12% Google 12% Amd 8% Nintendo 6% Centene 5% Novo 4% AXP 4% Evolution AB 2% Dlocal 2% I've held most of these and added in the past 1.5yrs. Overall portfolio(incl indexes) has gained 25% but I feel like I could be a lot more optimal, a lot of my gains are significantly tilted to tech with ASML, AMD, GOOG being the biggest winners but everything in the lower half of my portfolio is either slightly in the red or down significantly like Nintendo. I do believe Nintendo will flip at some point and honestly I really like the look of Sony as well but not convinced that if ASML for example crashes the others will be there to keep my portfolio afloat.

dummy_anthropologist

Really wish I was with you on this one DoomerGooner67, but no way someone in the semi industry seeing unprecedented levels of chip demand looks at their local offices AI use and think that’ll never sell. I’ll happily admit I’m wrong if you post a selfie in front of an ASML node.

NZTamoDalekoCG

From what little I know what we are really paying for is that terafab of Musks. So essentially he is setting up shop to compete with TSMC. From what I heard its pretty much economic suicide to compete with those guys. Not immpossible but I have heard long run cash injection that terafab is gonna need is about a trillion bucks anyway to make it competitve. Also China due to Trumps imo not so clever tarriffs is never gonna drop this strategic ball to compete with TSMC and ASML, even if the administration changes. Wouldnt suprise me if considering the money his fatory is gonna need the US goverment jumps on board in the longer run. Really this IPO is gonna be a downpayment for the Terafab. Should shave off about a 1000$ bucks of the chip costs in Teslas, its also not just gonna manufactuee those superfine chips TSMC is known for. Also yeah I think a big chunk off the IPO is ofc gonna go towards the ASML lithography sector. So yeah this spaceX IPO is really more about the tera fab. Exciting stuff musk wants to start building datacenters in space, there are advantages, in terms of cooling and power(these are debated but I think he made some good points).

trustabro

I invested in MU, MP, PLTR, ASML, ALB, and ACLS and they all outperformed the Mag7. I have also invested in the Mag7 but I understand why some people want to do better than just the Mag7. Of course I also have losses like PYPL and AREC.

_hiddenscout

Interesting quote from ASML ceo \> "One of the most fascinating projects for me is Starlink because we talk a lot about chips, humanoids, self-driving cars, and all those products have to be connected to data," ‌he said. Still bullish on satellite component suppliers.

bilingualbunny

That and ASML

Historical_Air_8997

ASML is basically a monopoly and a decade ahead of anyone else. But it’s had a pretty strong run up so not sure I’d buy *now* but if you were going to invest the $1m over a year there may be a good entry. GOOG is probably the best for a “safer” play while still have a lot of strong potential. Msft isn’t bad and this is a decent entry point. I would personally pick RKLB tho, it’s not on your list but if you want to “maximize” your returns over 10 years I think it’s your best bet. Their management is great, the TAM is huge and they’re just getting started. Valuation is a bit high but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s cut in half at some point in the next 12 months and I’d enter then.

greenpride32

I think you miss the point of investing. AI trade has created a lot of wealth backed by very real revenue and earnings. You can make hypothetical comment this and general comment that. Yet first example I gave was actual example of NVDA which $26b to $215b top line in 3 years in unprecedented. Been in AVGO NVDA LRCX ASML AMAT MSFT AMZN GOOGL for over 8-10+ years. You can check their 10Q's and 10K's and their share price - it's all very real growth - I don't need a "company A" or "company B".

smellof

You don't need to be a shill, China achieved something never seen before, without invading and actually stealing shit like the West did. And you still call it theft when western companies complied with Chinese laws to cut costs, basically allowing China to learn and build their own shit. For example, when China buys some ASML machines to reverse engineer it and build their own, you probably call it theft too, but if someone does that with a video game to build an emulator (like the Switch that got a working emulator just a year after the release), they are smart, cool and it's not theft. You are the retard here, remember that.

Acceptable_Toe_6231

You asked for a roast hope you enjoy this. Where do I start? This isn’t a portfolio, this is the AI semiconductor starter pack with one random Amazon share and Tesla sitting there like, “I’m still invited, right?” You’ve got: AMD, ARM, ASML, MU, NVDA — basically you walked into the AI trade and said, “Give me one of everything behind the counter.” The funniest part is you own 1 share of ASML at $1,470, like you bought the Rolls-Royce of chip equipment and then surrounded it with sample-size appetizers. Micron up 54% is carrying itself like the kid in class doing the group project. Meanwhile Tesla is red and already acting dramatic with just one share. Amazon is up 23% and you’re probably still looking at it like, “Why didn’t I buy 10?” Same with Nvidia — two shares, up 25%, and now it’s the one you wish you had treated like a real position instead of a taste test. But honestly? For a roast, this is not ugly. It’s concentrated, expensive, and very AI-cycle dependent — but it’s not trash. It’s just very clearly a “I believe chips, AI, cloud, and Elon chaos will carry civilization” portfolio.

elgrandorado

You're right about semis deserving high valuations, problem is if the demand at current levels is truly sustainable during this supercycle. I've said this as someone that held ASML for years and recently took profits last quarter on a 20%+ concentrated position. People thinking the semiconductors industry dynamics have changed wildly said the same thing in the 80s, late 90s, etc. ESPECIALLY around the memory subsection. Memory fabrication is essentially a commodity and the market is still pricing it as such for a reason. Some of the incumbents like EDA, Wafer Fabrication Equipment, Litho, etc. have created better recurring streams of revenue, but are all still exposed to the boom & bust cycles.

Available_Air_6367

Yeah, pretty much what I researched about it (with Gemini deep research and Claude) and that sold me on buying a few shares in q3 2025. >But the stock probably behaves more like a high-beta momentum AI infrastructure name than a steady compounder right now. Yeah, that was what I was looking for, since I already have Google and the SOXXX as my compounders (I did not expect a 185% Bullrun from an ETF in 12 months) I've been holding SOXX that covers Intel, Broadcom, Nvidia, ASML and many others in the AI/infra Play. Credo was a bet on a hidden gem in 2025 that played out nicely 😎. >I’d personally view it as a “buy on volatility/pullbacks” type stock rather than something to chase aggressively after huge vertical moves. Which is why now that people are taking profits, I'm going to buy some more :D I've been looking at other branches that will benefit from the 700 billion AI infra investment and my next Targets are **AAON (cooling), VST (energy), GNRC (backup Power) :)**

Bryguy3k

Well ASML is also capacity constrained.

dixieTrixxy

I own : $MA - $META - $AAPL - $GE - $BKNG - $ASML and $BKNG

sant0hat

ASML sold more litho machines than ever. Nvidia will pump.

drew-gen-x

I am up over 11% on $XVUS tax lots I bought the last week of March. It's much easier for me to sleep knowing that World ex US indices aren't as overweight the AI circle jerk names as $VTI or $SPY are. TSM, Samsung, ASML, and SK Hynix market cap concentration is 7.9% of $VXUS. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, both Googles, Broadcom, Meta, and Tesla make up 37% of the market cap of the $SPY. When I mention we are in a dot com 2.0 aka AI cap ex circle jerk bubble everyone points out how profitable Big Tech is today vs dot com ignoring the overconcentration of market cap of a handful of stocks today in $SPY just like dot com.

cool-sheep

I’m a long term investor. Basically this is a hardware company in the middle of a massive shortage. All the suppliers are running at 50%+ margins, TSMC, ASML and NVIDIA. It’s awesome but not a normal situation without the shortages. However real other bottlenecks are emerging and the growth cannot go on forever. New machines are being added to address the shortage. I think it’s massively overvalued. Jensen is doing the right thing and taking what he can.

Ready_Form_7958

You have no idea what is international cooperation. Do you know that many Boeing airplane and GE Engine parts made from China? An ASML EUV lithography system relies on a vast supply chain that spans roughly **60 countries**

LumpyShock9656

There is a defined amount in my view, and it's not one quarter. It's 3-5 to 10years of more. A long term horizon, not a quarter. Of course you deliberately misinterpret my performance! I clearly stated that I've been heavily increasing my capital investment over the last two years, month over month. I didn't lump sum everything at the beginning! 🤦‍♂️By this definition I am beating the S and P in time weighted returns, thanks to holdings like GOOG, ASML, AMZN and NVDA.

SufficientPeak8947

Google Meta Apple ASML Visa Microsoft Nebius NVIDIA We good

Aware_Secret_8910

Isn't ASML a bigger single point of failure?

moreno1304

I personally have AMD, TSM, ASML, AMD, Nvidia, GOOGL and amazon. Just go big on chips/data centres the coming 15-20 years.

TheoryShort7304

MSFT, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, RKLB, ASML, Google. Most of them are growing their profits by 18-20% annually, so easily beat S&P 500. The benchmark index should be QQQ.

kdf360

I've had an AI/DC (AMD, ASML, ANET, MU) and energy (GLNG, SBGSY) core with some metals (FCX, GLD and SRUUF) and exploratory positions / small trades. Ahead of the benchmarks...

keepturning1

TSMC, ASML, NBIS for different parts of the AI trade. First two are safer bets while Nebius is where you can get some extreme upside.

Realistic_Support185

I am doing something similar but 7 holdings BTC, VTI, GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX, ASML, SPGI. May add MSFT as #8

cd80808080

Google, AVGO, TSM, AMZN, NVIDIA, VRT, ASML, IBIT.

Aggravating-Ant1727

Keep in mind the supply chain doesn't start with TSMC. TSMC relies on a single Dutch company (ASML) for the microlithography equipment it uses to manufacture its chips. As do Intel, Micron, Samsung, etc. If TSMC becomes under the control of a certain country, it may also lose access to the top-of-the-line microlithography equipment it needs to keep innovating.

gnetc

I think the secret is kinda out now about ASML, nobody really talked about them 3-4 years ago. Now everybody and their mother knows about their moat and importance in the semi supply chain. Probably would be better to start a new position when we see a correction in semis within the next 12-18 months.

JPL_WSB_BRRRRR

You see I hold ASML. The monopoly that makes the machines that make those chips. Guess what happens to the demand for those machines if for some reason Taiwan is no more?

Vast-Papaya-514

No, they won't. An invasion would destroy the fabs, and if not, then TSMC itself would make them inoperable. Even if China could somehow peacefully get control of the fabs, they would lose the people with the deep knowledge and experience required to operate the fabs. The fabs also require key equipment and tools from Western companies like ASML, Cadence, Applied Materials, etc.

elgrandorado

I just read through some of the 10F filings. I ended up selling out of my ASML stake in two tranches in Q1, while Dev Kantesaria cut his V stake in half to move it all to ASML. At these valuations I wonder what he saw to increase that stake? I love the firm and think it's one of the key bottlenecks in the semi trade. China still hasn't even figured out how to mass produce an EUV machine let alone have it production ready, so there's no competition there. Problem is that TSM can basically hold off buying bleeding edge High NA at will. Until Intel or Samsung really catch up to them, TSM remain the top dog in logic. Memory demand has absolutely exploded, but how many new fabs will the big three open up before the next bust cycle? I feel a lot of the upside in ASML is priced in, and it'll be hard to make outsized earnings for a bit. Maybe I'm wrong, but it was hard not to take profit when valuations currently indicate that ASML would need to hit the top of their 2030 revenue guide (or higher) per their investor day to come close to their current price. For context I sold a large tranche at $1,050, and the second tranche at $1,460. Most of my buys were at ~$600.

DonutsOnTheWall

Intel is going to light ASML on fire. All in! bam bam bam ps: fu stupid bers

chapelier1923

I have exactly this problem. I have AMAT LRCX TSM NVIDIA KLA on ASML AMBIQ AMD . They are all up 100-300% and have made a considerable difference to the growth of my conservative portfolio in the last couple of years but I never added to them and can’t bring myself to now…. The only one I did add to was GOOG . If I’d done the same with the others I’d be laughing

Joejoecornrow

I Said he same about Google at 220 . Nvda at 400 prior to split. GLW at 80. Life goes on Glad I got into ASML at 1k

g3tr1ghttt

I think you make it sound worse than it is. Google’s net income in latest ER was boosted by paper gains on Anthropic, that is true. But I have a couple points. While Google is not an investment company like BRK, why is it not appropriate for them to engage in the same type of activity and gain value? Or should all investment companies be excluded from public exchanges because they don’t generate real value but rather serve as a proxy to other public and non-public companies? What should happen to BRK market cap if their holdings suddenly lose 50% value? Google’s revenue and operating income are growing 10-30% y/y consistently. +29.7% operating income growth just last quarter, 39.7B - highest number in their history. These don’t include any paper gain on their investments. Growing 10-30% consistently while already making more money than almost any other company in the world is pretty remarkable. Isn’t it evident that Google appreciated in value recently not because of Anthropic paper gain? Also, Anthropic is not their only investment (how about SpaceX, Waymo, etc), Google is very diversified in their investments as well as operating businesses. Also, PE wouldn’t drop by 50% if there is no other paper gain to be made. Their forward PE is 45 while trailing is 30, so the number is more like 33% vs 50%. But what is fair value? Is Apple fairly valued? How about Amazon? Maybe ASML that holds a unique monopoly and is consistently sold out years in advance, is current 50 trailing PE justified? If PE was the true metric then stocks like TIGR wouldn’t be sitting at 6 PE trailing and forward.

made-in-korea

I heard Samsung union situation is a bit nuanced but the big thing is that most of their stuff is automated and the sophisticated machines like ASML EUV usage is outside hire so the union actually doesn’t have that strong of a leverage when it comes to going into a strike

Psychological-Sun744

The match act is the biggest threat to this etf. ASML could lose 20-30% of its revenue and so other companies listed in this etf.

PralineTechnical5685

Motley Fool has been around a long time, but their results have NEVER been audited. They can say anything they want to. I want to see their average results of their 200+ buy rating stocks. What the standard deviation (it has to be large with a NVDA along with 90% losses of FMC and UPST) I love to see the avg for top 25, bottom 25, mean 25, mode 25, bottom and top outliers removed, z scores, etc. Let Ernst & Young, KPMG or some other firm audit them. Motley Fool; the check is in the mail, I won't 1(&\^ in your mouth. What is INSANE with Motley Fool is lack of risk management: buy and hold blind is asinine. If you're holding a new industry like quantum ok that is going to be a wild ride but a blue-chip? There are only so many buy and hold blind stocks. I call them HUSSAH: my acronym for Hold Unless Something Stupid Asshole Happens. Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, Costco, Google: that is it. Coming close is IBM, ASML. AVGO, MA, META, V That is it holding anything else blind: YOU ARE A FOOL!!! Before getting thrown off and refunded my money for punching holes in Fool principles (they called me too disruptive, so I was silenced and refunded my money). Fool is like a religious cult: it could be as DARK as Jonestown under Jim Jones in the late 1970;s if you're unlucky to hold the right Fool picks. **The rear-view mirror - 5-year graphs**, good companies stay good companies. I posted I was buying INTEL at $19 last year. About 30 "Mario Gabelli's" posted 5-year graphs. "Look. look past performance is indicative of future performance." This is ignorance and being brainwashed by Fool theories. Geopolitical, new management. etc. things change: shit happens good and bad. **Rigid long‑term holding rules**, **overreliance on growth narratives**, **no risk‑management framework**, and **a business model that rewards optimism over accuracy**. # Rigid “hold for 5+ years” doctrine Motley Fool explicitly instructs investors to hold every pick for **at least five years**, regardless of market conditions or price structure. This eliminates tactical exits. It forces investors to ride catastrophic drawdowns. It treats all stocks as if they follow the same growth trajectory. I can list a lot of the following examples and this creates DEAD MONEY, dollars wasted that could have been saved and used somewhere else. FMC: $110 and 6 months later $12, DIS $100 covid rides to $250 after covid down to $70's (I bought at $110 with a 20% stop loss so when DIS fell my Stop was triggered at $198, 4 years later Disney $106. 04/2022 AT&T is at $35 and cuts its dividend in half, I sold that day at $34+, today T is at $25, UPST buy at $320and ride it down to $40. # No risk management — ever Their doctrine includes **no stop‑losses, no trimming, no exit strategies**, and no mechanism for acknowledging a broken thesis. User reviews repeatedly highlight this as a cause of large losses, especially during COVID‑era volatility, where subscribers report losing **\~50%** following Fool picks. This is not an accident — it’s baked into the system. I call it FOOL ZOMBIE HOARD - buy, hold 5 years no matter what, look at the 5-year graph as good companies stay good companies and bad stay bad, ride a company down to the depths off Tartarus (FMC -89.5% loss so you need a moon shot of 900% to break even).

FlamboyantKoala

It's overbought as a processor company that competes with AMD. As the possible future highest tech semiconductor manufacturer on the other hand we still have a lot of room to grow. Recent moves by TSMC are making it sound like they may cede the technology lead to Intel. They are buying the latest ASML machines and they aren't doing anything ballsy like Intel is doing such as their buttside power delivery.

MD_Yoro

Illumina makes and sells NGS machines, they are more advanced DNA reading machines that only one or two other companies are currently competing in. NGS and sequencing in general is a root of most current drug development involving synthetic biology, similar to how ASML’s lithograph machine is for chip manufacturing. The only difference is that NGS machines aren’t that expensive and older sequencing machines can get the job done too just slower so Illumina still faces stiff competition even though only a few other companies sell similar machine for DNA sequencing. China has a huge biotech/pharma discovery industry so getting your machine into the market makes sense

mikebuba

On another sub I read the visit to China had to do something with technology vs mineral exchange. Hence major AI companies were represented there. US gets minerals, China gets technology and know how. Hence MU, ASML and others are down

elit69

it is all about actual software profit from LLM. name me one company that do that and actually announce it? NVDA, MU, Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC, ASML => upstream profit from hardware AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, META => profit mostly from ads and/or upstream profit from data center subsiding the AI costs Anthropic, Open AI, xAI => money burning machines PLTR => outlier because of government contracts after the dust settles, it could SASS companies with durable moats. PLTR is a very good example of this.

Etherius

Dividends reduce the price of the stock but only so people can’t immediately just sell on the ex date and pocket the cash while driving the price of stock down in a selling frenzy. It’s to prevent arbitrage. The dividends themselves are issued to return capital to investors and encourage stability in the stock price Raising the dividend every year generally causes the stock price to rise It’s a different risk profile than other investments. You don’t buy Waste Management or Coca Cola for the same reasons you buy ASML or Nvidia

Mammoth-Water-4711

Loaded $AMAT into the print. +8% AH 🚀 Management raised industry semicap growth from ">20%" to ">30%" for 2026. Q3 guide $8.95B ± $500M analyst-slap. Next: ASML 7/15 BMO, LRCX late July. Shares + Sep calls. 💎🙌

AttentionIsAllINeed

Why TSM and not ASML?

Memento_mori9608

ASML pump

Domethegoon

What is it with all of you guys saying the same thing? If you dare say there’s a bubble or go against the popular sentiment about semis only going up forever and ever, you automatically “missed out… sucks to be you.” No I didn’t. I’m up 180% on GOOGL, 160% on ASML, etc. I’m starting to think I’m talking to literal bots.

ZacTheBlob

A ton of news sources reported the deepseek FUD too. You're also ignoring half of my comment. >Even if there is an ounce of truth in this, Intel and Samsung have had access to ASML machines for years, they still don't come close to TSMC's yields.

ZacTheBlob

This reminds me of the deepseek FUD where they claimed to have built an AI model that rivals chatGPT from a few mil when in reality the model cost a few bil to build and they essentially just trained it on chatGPT for a few mils, but used that amount as the total cost of the model. If you blindly believe this stuff, then more power to you buddy. Even if there is an ounce of truth in this, Intel and Samsung have had access to ASML machines for years, they still don't come close to TSMC's yields. "The edge is gone in 1 year" is a retarded take.

ZacTheBlob

The ASML machines are just one part of the pie. Intel and samsung have had access to them for a while, but they don't come close to TSMC in yield rates. The edge will definitely shrink, but it won't be 1 year. People have been making claims like these for the past 3 years.

ZacTheBlob

They are, but it takes a very long fucking time to build out and develop. Funding isn't the bottleneck of the AI boom. The ASML machines TSMC uses for those AI chips are built in the Netherlands and they're completely backlogged. It's not something China can buy their way out of. Not to mention the massive amounts of R&D that goes into developing CoWoS and the 2nm process. Intel and samsung have been trying it for a while, but there's a reason most companies are still queueing up for TSMC, they're in a league of their own. The yield rates are not even close.

GrEaThEaVeNs

NVIDIA (8%), Google (8%), Amazon (8%), TSMC (8%), Apple (8%), Microsoft (8%), ASML(7%), GNENF (6%), SQM (5%), Cloudflare (5%), TAN (5%), BYD (5%), XPENG (5%), Xiaomi (5%), TOYO (3%), Zscaler (3%). Pretty heavy in tech, solar, lithium, and cybersecurity. Will eventually diversify out to some more defensive positions.

Icy_Mycologist_2253

Yeah, sounds like you are sticking your head in the sand.  Their EUV won't be comparable to ASML, but the government will subsidize them like everything else, so it doesn't even matter if volume is low. Korean experts talk a lot about this topic. They cover the development reports and commercialisation of the Chinese supply chain in depth. I feel bad for Europeans because your industry has been annihilated by China and y'all don't have much left.

Greedy_Rabbit_1741

Then Reuters is wrong. There is no way they will get EUV working at scale comparable to ASML in 2030.

Hug_LesBosons

It is rong. Aramco (1500B)+tsmc (2000B)+Samsung (1200B)+SK hynix (900B) + ASML (400B)+ LVMH (350B)...>nvidia (5500B).

Artistic_Concern_33

Isn’t ASML basically a US company all but in location of the company

Maga1498

ASML?

Memento_mori9608

ASML is the play for the next 10 years

CD274

Those sanctions (and things like no access to ASML lithography) sre what are keeping China from manufacturing the same quality, generation and yield of HBM. Why would they be pressured to buy the thing they're sanctioned from making. The point isn't to sell the most memory the point is to get to AGI first, that's why the MATCH is bipartisan. (Also it's two way, China also bans Micron etc)

stockprimo

Everyone add SMCI, do it today, these are the other ones I recommend previously and you can check the results, JNJ $151, QCOM $130, TSLA $243, NVDA $182, ASML $1120, AMD $95

SchlechterUser

that is already all up to the moon as i see it. ASML, okay. more ASML

sjwilkinson

Good listing, I've been long on MKSI for quite some time now and it is paying off big time. They supply ASML with optical modules and are finally getting into LEO.

iHateThisPlaceSoBad

Somehow this will go green. I actually think a meteor could impact every ASML chip manufacturing facility, and the market would rally on potential for even more CAPEX spend.

Broad_Program3712

Thx for your post it was super informative for someone who was 3 during the 99 crash. I didn't even think about the fiber optics companies crashing after it. One of the things I notice a lot in these articles comparing the AI bubble to the .com era is that they are not mentioning that AI is also an arms race. I understand why people draw comparisons when you have companies like Nike saying theyre "using AI" to develop shoes. There's just companies coming out like Anduril that are making fully autonomous AI powered subs. If AI weapons dont get internationally banned/ condemned (I hope they do) there will be a massive demand for the hardware needed to train and house the AI running them. I just think the West is looking at what China is developing and creating in terms of robotics and AI development and there extremely concerned. I know the US is doing all they can by restricting ASML sales and limiting chip sales etc but just something i think is under looked.

Aggressive_Deer_7072

Honestly the bigger risk probably isn’t ASML losing dominance, it’s semi capex cooling off harder than people expect. These cycles always feel permanent near peaks lol

ZYHUA

Chinese leaked trump talk memo: negotiate ASML EUV machines for export license on rare earth materials If Chinese got their hands on ASML EUV, we've got a 4th player in the HBM

Due_Yam1326

What makes the ASML story so interesting to me is that it’s not just a “good semiconductor company” anymore, it’s geopolitical infrastructure. Advanced chip manufacturing basically bottlenecks through one company’s lithography stack. That’s an insane strategic position to be in. I also think people underestimate how export controls can strengthen incumbents in certain cases. Restrictions limit market access on one side, but they also push western governments and fabs to double down on securing domestic advanced manufacturing capacity. TSMC, Intel, Samsung, all these expansion plans still depend on the same chokepoint technology. I’ve been using Cursor for code and Runable for quick internal tools/landing pages lately, and it honestly reinforces the same AI infrastructure thesis every day. Everyone talks about models, but the real long-duration trade is still the hardware and manufacturing stack underneath them.

Due_Yam1326

The thesis makes sense to me honestly. ASML feels less like a normal semiconductor company and more like infrastructure for the entire advanced chip ecosystem. Whether Nvidia, AMD, Intel, or TSMC wins, they all still need leading-edge lithography. Using EUV instead of just holding ASML directly is reasonable if your main concern is concentration risk or geopolitical risk around one company. The only thing I'd watch is how much of the ETF is actually diversified versus secretly still being heavily dependent on ASML performance underneath. I also think people underestimate how long these semiconductor capex cycles can last once governments get involved. Between AI demand and domestic fab incentives, this doesn't feel like a one or two year story.

Odd-Gear3376

The export control story gets very little recognition. Asml is not just a monopoly, it is a monopoly which is politically shielded. Nobody in the western world wants to commoditize this technology. The ETF plays is an interesting one, but you are essentially betting on ASML through a more complicated route. Long play is valid but the only concern is the timing issue. Fab builds are a long drawn process and the market is heavily discounting the tailwinds.

KarlLachsfeld

You are aware that if ASML goes down, then the whole supply chain goes down? It's like saying you want to hold Ford and suppliers instead of just Ford for diversification...

KarlLachsfeld

Why buy this if you can just buy ASML?

kimvanbungen

There is no AI without Europe (IMEC, ASML), Taiwan (TSMC)... TSMC needs Helium but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted helium supplies. The whole AI supply chain is impacted...

MakingMoneyIsMe

>big incumbents with real quantum budgets like GOOGL, IBM, MSFT and AMZN, plus “pick-and-shovel” semi names like ASML, TSM, MU and LRCX that benefit if compute keeps scaling regardless. Oh great Swami, anymore picks?

Singularity-42

Solid take. The skeptic gap is the part most people miss when comparing this to dot-com. In 1999 there were enormous chunks of the country who thought the internet was a fad for nerds. Some members of my own family didn't have email until like 2003. Right now my 70-year-old neighbor is using ChatGPT to write cover letters. The adoption curve isn't even on the same chart. The chips piece I'd lean even harder on. The capex story is absurd. The big four hyperscalers alone are pushing north of $400B/year on AI infra, and that's before sovereigns and the tier-twos. None of that flows without ASML, TSMC, and Nvidia getting paid. Cisco in 99 was hot but it was selling into mostly speculative buildouts. The hyperscalers buying Blackwells today are doing it because inference workloads have actual revenue attached now. Robots are 100% the next leg. People keep treating humanoid robotics as a separate story but it's the same tech stack with a different chassis. Foundation models plus actuators plus the same chip supply chain. Once unit economics close for one form factor they close for all of them. The real risk isn't direction, it's that there will be brutal drawdowns along the way and a lot of people get shaken out at the wrong moment. But the secular thesis? Yeah, this absolutely pisses on dot-com.

Western-Put-2950

Interesting concept. It’s basically a “picks and shovels” ETF for AI chip manufacturing rather than a pure bet on NVIDIA. That gives you exposure to the entire semiconductor supply chain—ASML, TSMC, Applied Materials, Lam, KLA, and memory players like Micron. I actually like that approach because if AI demand keeps growing, the equipment and infrastructure providers may benefit regardless of which chip designer wins. The 0.35% expense ratio seems reasonable for a thematic ETF. The main thing I’d watch is overlap. If you already own broad semiconductor ETFs like SOXX or SMH, you may already have significant exposure to many of these names. Still, as a more focused way to play advanced manufacturing and EUV adoption, it looks like a thoughtful product.

Fresh_Researcher_242

anyone have ASML calls?

RedXSpotter-711

Thanks for doing the analysis for us! I looked at Cerebras months ago and discovered it was privately owned, so I repositioned my portfolio to include other hi-tech stocks... that have already jumped in value. A few years ago when I retired I was pondering how to invest my investments. I look at what is revolutionizing our society...eg, railroads in the late 1800's, production lines in early 20th century, computers in late 20th C, and now AI and robotics, and not just the IDMs and fabless players but also all the support industries, like ASML, COREWEAVE, TSMC, MICRON etc. I think photonics will be next in growth.

RandomC6

I did have NVDA, AMAT, ASML. I am fine with the profit, although I could see NVDA running up higher into earnings.

flaming_pope

Just a side topic, the director of the ASML technology team looks like he’s an alien with 2 brains.

CFDsForFun

I would probably sell half? I did this with ASML and Google when they hit 100% returns for me. Just left profit in them which was half of the position at that point. Helps me sleep and I can maintain some exposure to them. Plus also gives me cash to buy anything else I like

Fine-Drummer2604

Your point is legit and I touched on it in the post too. DRAM is also adopting EUV at very high cost and NIL can take a chunk of critical patterning at fractional costs, that’s already a given. The revenue will be there. ASML needed to overcome much bigger obstacles over the years than Canon now. It literally looks like alien technology and nobody could’ve guessed how they did it. Ruling things out based on current tech ceilings is speculation just as my position

sant0hat

You are gonna get killed by overley error and edge defects purely by nature of having to touch the wafer, so you won't ever get into real EUV territory. But for the slightly higher layers you can get away with it, sure. Issue is that is already what is being done. ASML doesn't use an EXE5000 to create the entire logic, they make the lowest laying and highest demanding layers with EUV and finish the rest with other low end EUV and DUV machines. I think Canon is a good stock for the future, but not for your reasons. More that Canon is starting to become very good and cheaper in the DUV market compared to ASML.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- Ticker: CAJPY Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Shares (Long 3,000 shares) Catalyst: 2027 IAP launch & Memory Fab Qualification Tech Strategy: Stamping chips like a wax seal (cheaper and less power than ASML) Wife's Boyfriend Status: Unaware, currently getting his picture taken by a Canon camera

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- Ticker: CAJPY Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Shares and hold until 2027 (or until your wife's boyfriend kicks you out) Catalyst: 2027 IAP (Inkjet-based Adaptive Planarization) launch & memory fab qualification (Kioxia/SK Hynix) The Play: ASML has a dangerous monopoly on $200M laser EUV machines. Canon is quietly building Nanoimprint Lithography (NIL) which literally stamps chips into the wafer for a fraction of the cost. You get a profitable, dividend-paying company as a free call option on a massive semiconductor supply chain disruption.

hello_everyone_555

TSMC and ASML are the key limitations. So expect high prices for a few more years even if they come down a bit. The cost of tokens will keep coming down by a big factor, but the use of tokens will keep skyrocketing at the same time. The Jevons paradox.

LittlePlacerMine

Semi sells into automotive, communications, AI compute, General compute. When a sector goes down the suppliers go down with it. Not all semi is across all markets. AMD was heavy general compute and stagnated, new CEO pushed into new markets for massive gains. Nvidia is heavily dependent on AI. They also are used in self driving but that is still a nascent market. These guys have to make huge capital investments and the lead times from idea to silicon to market are long. So either you bet on the sector or you understand each companies linkage to whichever market they cater to. Or just go with ASML which controls the equipment to make pretty much all silicon.

AnalBleachedHair

Buy suss microtech instead, it it the Walmart ASML

Maximum-Side-9391

ASML short bag holder