ASML

Decimerusi

this is the dumbest thing I've read this week. EU US trade accounts for 30% of world trade and everything is about to be 10-20% more expensive. Take ASML. One of their machines is over 400 million USD. Intel will now have to pay 20% more than that - how do you think that's gonna go down? Or cars? VW and Mercedes sales tanking? & the possible / probable retaliatory tariffs? If you believe any company can 'price in' such a massive increase in their import prices without it destroying the margins you have your head up your ass.

Juamocoustic

How specialized and niche is sattelite component fabrication compared to other high tech industry (semiconductors, smartphones back in the day, etc). I ask this to better understand the barriers to entry, because if we all know and understand that demand for sattelites will increase, the market will know this for sure. If manufacturing a sattelite is comparatively simple then competition will quickly bring prices down and limit the chances of seeing breakout successes like AAPL, NVDA, ASML etc

Recent_Body981

This is a really interesting question that touches on potential economic and social shifts. Here's a breakdown of the factors involved and how they might relate to your investment thesis: **The Premise: A US Exodus and European Gains** Your core idea hinges on the possibility of a significant outflow of skilled workers, particularly scientists and professionals, from the US and their subsequent movement to Europe. Several factors could drive such a shift: * **Political and Social Climate:** Perceived political instability, social issues, and cultural clashes in the US could push individuals to seek a more stable or aligned environment. * **Economic Factors:** Higher taxes in some US states, perceived better work-life balance in Europe, and attractive incentives offered by EU countries could sway professionals. * **Research and Development:** If US funding for certain research areas declines or faces political interference, European institutions and companies could become more attractive. * **Healthcare:** Access to universal healthcare in many EU countries might be a significant draw. **Could This Happen?** Yes, it's *possible*, but the scale and impact are highly uncertain. * **Historically, talent flows are complex.** While there have always been individuals moving across borders, a mass exodus is rare. * **The US remains a powerful draw.** The US economy is still massive and innovative, offering high salaries and opportunities in many sectors. * **Europe has challenges too.** EU countries face their own economic and political issues (varying tax rates, regulations, language barriers, etc.) that might deter some. **Impact on EU Companies: The "Football Transfer" Analogy** Your football transfer analogy is insightful. The injection of talent and expertise could certainly enhance the value of EU companies, particularly in sectors where innovation and skilled labor are critical: * **Biotech and Pharmaceuticals:** US-trained scientists could bolster European companies involved in drug discovery, gene therapy, and related fields. * **Technology:** Software engineers, AI specialists, and hardware developers could significantly contribute to the growth of European tech companies. * **Engineering:** Professionals in fields like aerospace, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing could strengthen EU companies in these sectors. * **Financial Services:** If professionals in areas like data science, analytics, or fintech relocate, they could enhance innovation and competitiveness. **What to Watch For: Key Indicators** * **Immigration Data:** Monitor immigration statistics from EU countries to track the influx of skilled workers from the US. * **Company Announcements:** Look for announcements from EU companies highlighting the hiring of US professionals or the establishment of new research centers. * **Venture Capital Flows:** Track venture capital investments in EU startups, particularly those founded by or employing US talent. * **Policy Changes:** Observe any policy changes in the US or EU that could encourage or discourage the movement of professionals. **Companies to Watch (This is speculative and requires due diligence):** * **Established European Companies:** * **Pharma/Biotech:** Companies like Novartis (Switzerland), Roche (Switzerland), Sanofi (France), Bayer (Germany), Novo Nordisk (Denmark). These companies are already global players, but could benefit from an influx of top talent. * **Technology:** ASML (Netherlands - semiconductor equipment), SAP (Germany - enterprise software), Ericsson (Sweden - telecom), Nokia (Finland - telecom). * **Engineering:** Siemens (Germany), Airbus (Netherlands/France/Germany/Spain). * **Rising European Startups:** These are riskier investments but have the potential for high growth if they attract the right talent. Identifying specific companies requires more research into emerging industries and venture capital funding rounds. Look for startups in areas like: * AI/Machine Learning * Renewable Energy * Biotechnology * Fintech **Investment Considerations** * **Diversification:** Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your investments across different sectors and countries. * **Due Diligence:** Thoroughly research any company before investing. Understand their business model, financials, and competitive landscape. * **Long-Term Perspective:** Investing based on this thesis requires a long-term perspective. It may take time for the benefits of a talent influx to materialize. * **Currency Risk:** If you're investing in European companies, be aware of currency fluctuations between the US dollar and the Euro (or other relevant currency). * **Geopolitical Risk:** Be mindful of geopolitical risks that could impact European economies or specific industries. **Important Caveats:** * **This is a hypothetical scenario.** The scale of any US professional exodus is highly uncertain. * **Competition:** EU companies will be competing with other countries and regions for talent. * **Integration Challenges:** Integrating US professionals into European work environments may present challenges. **In conclusion, your idea is intriguing and worth exploring. However, it's crucial to approach it with a realistic understanding of the complexities involved and to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.** It's less a sure-fire bet and more a potential trend to monitor and potentially capitalize on with careful stock picking. Good luck! I got this answer from www.stockdoc.biz/chatbot.

Kantmzk

If I had 500k I would happily put it into VGT, then quickly watch it instantly go down 20% because that always seems to happen when I buy something, and after a year or two maybe, finally, become happy again once it is cruising up. SMH is also another great buy to bet on semis, although in general nothing can seem to touch NVDA and when NVDA is taking a pause or going down a lot, that seems to show semis are in trouble (again, cyclical, downturns are tough and can last). However, as risky as people think semis and tech are, I would take MSFT and ASML over VOO, for example. They are wonderful big companies with wiiide moats, and will continue growing and making insane amount of money.

EvolvingDior

It is if you are building a chip fab in the USA and you need to import equipment from ASML in the Netherlands.

SunburnedSherlock

Why is ASML pretty much at the same levels as 2 years ago?

Rose-n-Chosen

I like ASML… earnings in 2 weeks rest of the semiconductor industry is booming except for them, they are overdo to rip big

PitchBlack4

>Western monopolies only exist in little niche industries, like ASML or ARM. Both of which are European and not American.

UnscrupulousObserver

ASML. Shares. All in. Good bye!

nateccs

Samsung has one and TSMC is rumored to have received one. Theres a development curve which you may already know after taking possession of the machine including assembly, process bring-up, maturity and reaching high volume readiness. It takes a minimum of 2-4 years to get there. Intels 10nm process had significant delays and took them about 5 years after receiving the 10nm gear from ASML.

Hopeful_Gift1712

You live in a world 20 years ago. China now competes with GPUs made in their homeland, wheras the top manifacturer sits in Taiwan. There are plenty of other companies in China: * AVIC (Aviation Industry Corporation of China): Develops advanced military aircraft like the J-20 stealth fighter, and UAVs like Wing Loong II, which are exported globally. * NORINCO: Produces tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles (e.g., VT-4 MBT) used by multiple foreign militaries. * CETC (China Electronics Technology Group): Develops advanced radar systems, electronic warfare systems, and AI-driven surveillance tech. * Huawei & ZTE: Leaders in 5G infrastructure, AI, and telecom—not military per se, but clearly global high-tech competitors. (Thanks ChatGPT) Theres also India. Western monopolies only exist in little niche industries, like ASML or ARM.

Catwz

ok now i'm getting rich $ASML

woome

Diversifying based on value chain is a good idea. You are capturing growth along different phases and insulating somewhat from some segment-specific areas. And, you're right in that if data center capex slows down, REITs and end products may first see reduced demand. That doesn't always translate to reduced R&D or next tier WFE spending. And vice versa. (EDA I would lump into chip design, although they have a sticky customer base due to subscription-based models and high switching costs.) But that doesn't shield you against cyclicality or industry-wide headwinds. Semis are very cyclical and the whole industry slows down together. For example, glut in 2018, and 2022-2023 after the 2021 Covid rush. Also, be wary of systemic geopolitical risk due to global supply chains. Lastly, foundry equipment is very expansive beyond ASML and photolithography. There are many different processes that require very specific WFE, chemicals, materials, and nanotechnology. Businesses in a particular speciality will experience highs and lows depending on the particular growth phase of the industry. For example, right now it's all about yield, so therefore a focus on metrology instruments. Check out the Semiconductor Manufacturing Handbook, Asianometry and Branch Education on YouTube. But, beware, the rabbit hole is deep.

NotStompy

Actually I might ask you something since you seem quite knowledgeable and I'm newer to Semi investing: As I see it, if the data center capex slows down, a lot of stocks will take a beating, but so far by category, my current investment spread in semis is: 40% Foundry (TSM 25% Fabless designer (AMD) 35% Foundry equipment (ASML) I just wanted to ask how you view the different steps of the value chain in terms of at least trying to somewhat shield oneself against headwinds that might hit several at once. There are other areas like EDA which I can also invest in, but the question is if there's really a point in diversifying beyond the 3 areas I'm in now? Very complex question and frankly as someone who's spent a month looking into the semi industry I feel more confused after compared to before xD

NotStompy

I mean, it's a competitor, but really I'd say Broadcom is much more of a competitor, AMDs market cap is what, 10x smaller than NVDA? And less of that is focused on datacenter/ai, whereas Broadcom is only 3x smaller market cap or so? In the end, the one I'm invested in is AMD, sold my NVDA recently for that very reason - if I'm gonna take the risk of betting on the data center capex not slowing down, I want a handsome reward, and with the lower market cap I see more potential for it to become a multibagger at this point. So for me: AMD ASML TSM (might also look into EDA, not sure it's kind of a mess ATM)

elgrandorado

Been patient on RACE to see if I can add a bit more at a steeper discount. ASML always looks interesting but I did my adds there during Mangomania. NTDOY (ticker for Nintendo 7974 ADR) is one I will be adding to if there are any sell offs after earnings. I'm also looking to see if there's any dips in MCO or SPGI now that the Trump Admin seems like it'll force the FED to drop interest rates. On the watchlist, MELI and AMD are two that I've had my eye on over the past couple of months but I haven't touched them yet.

FarrisAT

I’m a fan of Citi and ASML here

VoidMageZero

ASML is a foreign hardware company, Palantir is a US software company. USA baby. 🦅

RampantPrototyping

And they end up paying ASML

FarrisAT

Palantir is more valuable than the only true monopoly in the entire AI supply chain (ASML).

Catwz

\+0,71% up on ASML 23 shares

tired_ani

True, except for AMAT , the other appreciated more than 20% for me and I thought this was the right time to trim and not hurt my ego. I am sticking with ASML and TSM forever though. *Unless China does something magnificent.

elgrandorado

The volatility in the semi industry names can be stomach churning. ASML is my only holding in semis right now, and it can be frustrating to see the market under appreciate or overreact on industry news at will.

tired_ani

Trimmed Semi Cap LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, CDNS, SNPS due to concentration risk , seeing as TSM , ASML are big in my portfolio. Looking to trim some positions further. Raised 5% cash across Taxable, Roth and HSA for future opportunities.

Catwz

https://preview.redd.it/4rd03dlwc2af1.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=29702d31b8969eb803401f85f4cc2e44f5438770 today plan all in ASML I don't care if I lose a bit of money today. i'm buying more shares we are going moon

Spankynpetey

ASML is a core value stock and safe AI/chip play. I own it and think it will continue to do well at least to its previous highs of $1110. STRL… interesting, but low trading volume adds risk and volatility, plus I’d need to see reasons to believe it can sustain SP. Not my type of play. Before I’d play STRL at this price, I’d take a comparable risk on an up n comer like APLD, but for growth and value investment I’d look at LBRT. Liberty is an energy and services company with services to oil, natural gas, strong on renewable geothermal energy, power distribution and commercial and industrial energy storage solutions. Interestingly, also connected to US Sec. of Energy, who was the CEO prior to taking appointment, which can’t hurt the company. Plus, they show strong earnings, a ridiculously low PE of 7.69 and haven’t been inflated yet following the April drops. Decent trading volume too. It will eventually run up.

geopop21208

Check out Joseph Carlson’s latest on YT. He goes over 20 stocks and their valuation. BTW I love $ASML and slowly accruing it.

ExtraGuacAM

$UNH, $AMD, $ASML, $PYPL, $NKE are all in my long term portfolio… I need to take some time to read a bit more and research on some of the companies surrounding AI infrastructure outside of the obvious MAG7 ones doing so already but I feel like you won’t be able to go wrong if you vet AI infrastructure & companies that hold a position in the process of bringing AI market - not the actual models themselves since all the good ones are private / require accredited investors status. If you want an easy answer and don’t want to do any work, I’d honestly just recommend following someone like Joseph Carlson from YouTube.  … ***shakes head hard*** “whoa sorry boss! you were talking about risky options trades right? After all this is WSB…”

itsmrlowetoyou

I own ASML now but I started purchasing it below $700. I would start buying more below $700 and go full port below $600. Other than that, PayPal is undervalued but no one wants financials outside of Visa it seems (can’t blame them). Lastly, I still think Nflx is undervalued but that’s debatable.

TheSleepyTruth

ASML is overhyped imo. China just announced they are investing 50B into chip manufacturing and specifically lithography in order to mitigate trade restrictions on high end chips and components which means they will be direct competition with ASML and likely be able to make same specialized lithography component for much cheaper. ASML will no longer have a monopoly on that component and will have to lower their margins a lot to compete with China. It will take China a couple years to get their factories up and running but ASML days are numbered.

limezest128

Could you not buy ASML on the NL market, in euros?

limezest128

Sorry, wrong thread. I was referring to buying ASML.

G4M35

* ASML: I have a small long position, and continue to accumulate with monthly buys * Shopify: I have a small long position, and continue to accumulate with monthly buys * IonQ: I have a small long position, and continue to accumulate with monthly buys. Same for other Quantum Stocks * Sterling Infrastructure: not for me * Credo Technologies: not for me * Uber: not for me > Any other suggestions? Index funds. > A lot of people still go for stocks like RR but I can't jump on something so expensive, it looks like a correction might be coming there. LOL

Catwz

all in ASML next week

APC2_19

The value of ASML moves the same way, weather you bought it in Euros or USD

wollywink

Shame I had to buy USD to invest in ASML

Chloeniuniu

I bought ASML and Kainos this week. Eying Veolia once it goes below €30 I'm in. Melrose industries is also good I just sold today at £535 waiting for the next dip.

creamonyourcrop

I have a few individual stocks, mostly chip manufacturing. ASML and Micron. But for my retirement and company defined benefits I went all in on preservation, mostly money market funds like SPAXX. Republicans start recessions. Every R admin has had at least one and they were all way smarter or at least less volatile than this one. His extent of his idiocy was likely masked by Covid in the first admin, but this one will be epic.

Abject_Engine2150

Two options: If the stocks are solid companies, like AMZN, GOOG, ASML, NFLX, etc. DO NOT SELL. Nobody under the age of 40 should be selling stocks as you are usually in an accumulating phase of investing. If they are stocks from unstable, not solid companies, sell and then invest either in a good low-index ETF like VTI, SPY, VOO, QQQ and/or great quality stocks... and hold them for at least 20 years before you sell any of it.

asdafari12

> Also, you think Europeans don’t make “cool shit”? What does the US make that Europe doesn’t? Tech companies? We have only a handful in the top 100 by market cap, SAP, ASML, Siemens and maybe some more. The US has probably 80%.

Catwz

ASML +0.37% pre market

JuculianD

Buy ASML, Safran, Colombier

SunflowerGreens

I’d skip Nike short term.. consumer spending’s still shaky. NVDA and AMD could fly if AI hype holds, but they’re also super volatile. If you want to play it a bit safer, maybe look into something like ASML or even SMCI

Victariox

Most of my stocks are American and from here I just buy ASML and NVO.

The_Apprentize

What is you thesis here? How are you drawing this conclusion? The way i see it, every major world economy is going to want to produce some chips in their homeland as we de-globalize; this will lead to more purchases of the lithography machines. Additionally, as the industry continuous to develop smaller scale chips, i see ASML leading that frontier with innovation and scale. They are essentially a monopoly.

Singularity-42

China is communism in name only, otherwise pretty ruthless capitalism. But yes, CCP has a huge amount of power. *US lead in tech is so massive. It will take DECADES for anyone to beat the US* Famous last words! China is doing crazy things in AI, computing and so on. Yes, for now the US has a lead, but that lead is maybe like six months. Hard to say. They are ahead in some things. They are def a bit more behind in semiconductor manufacturing (Taiwan is the clear leader here), but that can change. Definitely not time to be complacent. EU is a lame duck, no real threat of competition there. Although Dutch ASML is a very important piece in the semiconductor production.

casterlyrockk

I think Op means that any competitor to Nvidia is gonna be a customer to ASML not that Nvidia and ASML are competitors

loqloqloqloq

I can only speak for myself. Not really. There are some interesting companies like ASML, Novo Nordisk, Siemens and SAP, but the rest are probably going to be hit hard by the stupid green deal (well the effects can already be seen on the German market). US and Asia will remain the hubs of innovation for the foreseeable future, while Europe, if it doesn't change its stance, will become the grandma who prefers to go in person rather than sending an email. Also add the fact that if you work in any EU country, you're already exposed on Europe. You have a private pension that invests mainly in European bonds, you have a savings account, deposits, properties etc.

Catwz

NVDA hit ath = ASML is a big opportunity here, as ASML only lost value due to Jefferies downgrade but the impact was barely felt. Currently nvidia and tsmc are not developing their own lithography equipment to replace asml technology. Instead, they are collaborating with ASML ASML will maintain its dominant position in the supply of lithography equipment, companies in the sector are focused on developing complementary technologies to drive innovation in semiconductor The only risk here is China

The_Apprentize

Google, Amazon, Meta, ASML

Catwz

Today +2% HOOD and CEG. Tomorrow buy more ASML. All in ASML

Catwz

NVDA alt = ASML calls is great opportunity here once ASML is only down due Jefferies downgrade

Kantmzk

ASML is a great company, but what competition happens between ASML and NVDA? They do two very different things and have monopoly-tier businesses. If anything, ASML is more of a monopoly, which seems great from a stock ownership position, but their business is also very capital intensive and has less margins.

Cobra25k

I used to be a lot more prolific in this sub checking it daily back in 2021-2022, but I rarely visit this sub anymore cause I’ve realized how much of an echo chamber it truly is and overall has a negative effect on actually making sound investments. Granted, Im just a retail investor on reddit, so take this for what it’s worth. My portfolio was around $700,000 in 2022 and is now sitting around $1.9m as of today. My 10 core holding have been Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, ASML, Netflix, Crowdstrike, Shopify, AMD, SOFI, and MSCI. If you’re starting to get nervous with how much this market is continuing to run up, shrugging off and ignoring any bad news or bad economic data, you’re not alone. Here is what I’m doing, again, take it for what it’s worth. I’m not fighting the trend. I’m fully 100% invested into equities and letting the momentum ride higher for the time being. I have a pretty high level of conviction that we will see new all-time highs on the S&P500 soon, which will force more hedge funds and institutions to reallocate back to being overweight equities fueling us even higher, because they cannot afford to miss another rally. Financial conditions are still loose, banks are still lending, people are still spending, stocks going back to near all-time highs has loosened financial conditions even more via the wealth effect and more spending, there is still too much money floating around, too much spending, and too much positive momentum for the market to roll over and head lower. With that said. I am not buying at all at the moment, I am building as much cash as I can right now. Additionally, I have already identified around 30-40% of my equity positions that I will trim, minimizing capital gains tax as much as possible, once I see the leading economic indicators start seriously bringing down the cyclical portion of the economy. The business cycle happens if four sequences, starting with the leading economy, then the cyclical economy, followed by the aggregate economy, followed by the lagging economy. Initially, you will always see pain and degradation in the leading economy first, this is how the business cycle works, which we are seeing in spades currently, just check the conference board leading economic index https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators Eventually and inevitably, the pain in the leading economy then bleeds into the cyclical economy next, because the cyclical economy is the most interest rate sensitive portion of the economy in manufacturing and housing construction. Right now the cyclical economy is declining, but not nearly enough to bring down the aggregate economy. The aggregate economy is still rising, hence why we are still seeing a low unemployment report and decent job creation via NFP. However, with how much the leading economy is still continuing to drop to this day, it will inevitably bring down the cyclical economy much more in the near future, which in turn will eventually be enough to effect the aggregate economy and you will see a spike in unemployment and plummeting in job creation in NFP. So what I’m I watching for? Well, I am NOT watching the headline unemployment report, job creation in non-farm payrolls, or services PMI report at all. That’s because these are all lagging indicators, and not indicative of whether or not a recession is coming. Once you start seeing a rise in headline unemployment, a plummeting in job creation in NFP, and services PMI tank, the recession will already be underway and it’s too late. What I am watching is the conference board leading economic index (which continues to drop), showing more pain is building in the pipeline. And even more closely I’m watching the leading indicators of the cyclical economy. Such as overall headline manufacturing PMI and new orders, manufacturing employment (specifically in durable goods), building permit authorizations for single family homes, home builders profit margins, and initial and continuing jobless claims. Once I start seeing more significant degradation in these leading indicators in the cyclical economy, I’ll be trimming around 30-40% of my equities I have already picked out to cash to be ready to deploy before the degradation in the cyclical economy bleeds into the aggregate economy and causes the inevitable recession. Remember, with how much the leading economic index has dropped over the last 3 years. That’s all pain in the pipeline that has yet to fully come to fruition. The lag time of feeling that pain has just been exponentially increased this time around due to the most extensive and substantial fiscal stimulus we received in decades due to the COVID and the complete economic shutdown. This has allowed consumers to continue to spend and fuel the economy much longer than historically normal, even through higher rates and financial tightening by the Fed.

LumpyShock9656

Any idea why ASML has been trading down since yesterday?

Habstah

ASML nuking on some retard Jefferies analyst downgrade

JelisHermes

Agree — both ASML and TSM feel like foundational “picks & shovels” with strong fundamentals. I've also been exploring a few outside the semiconductor space that fit a similar mold: stable cash flows, high ROE, recurring revenue. One recent example that caught my eye was FranklinCovey, not flashy at all, but it runs a leadership training platform with SaaS, like margins and compounding characteristics. Not tech, but kind of the same “quiet compounder” logic. ROE’s around 17%, margins are solid, and it’s one of those companies that doesn’t make headlines but keeps compounding underneath the radar.

Sparkryy

1. I don't want to say the exact number but >100k 2. 15% 3. Thinking of taking Nvidia down to around 10% and replacing 5% with ASML 4. 50% IVV, and the rest split between GOOGL, CRM, ORCL, AMZN, UBER, UNH along with some other small ASX mining/resource stocks. 5. Long-term investor hence why I was conscious of having a relatively large portion of my portfolio in Nvidia. I have some small speculation plays but in a different account and I'm not touching that for now.

greenpride32

ASML is part of the supply chain, but they don't get revenue from chip designers, they get it from foundries such as TSM. ASML sells lithography machines which are used by foundries to manufacture the chips. In addition to the cost of machines, they collect revenue on service and consumable parts. While it's true ASML does have a monopoly, their growth is somewhat limited because foundries don't just pop up like datacenters. And lifecycle of machines is years. If you're looking for a play that gets the business of all chip designers, that is TSM. SMH ETF is also an option to diversify. In recent years it has outperformed QQQ. Expense ratio is a bit on the higher side, but it has all the semis you'd want to hold - NVDA TSM ASML LCRX AMAT MU AVGO KLAC AMD. Although keep in mind as NDVA is bouncing from 1-3 position by market cap, it will be the top weight in SMH. You're still adding some amount of NVDA buying SMH, but I think it's a still a worthwhile consideration.

G4M35

1. How big is your portfolio? 2. What % of your portfolio is now NVDA? 3. What % of your portfolio were you thinking for NVDA and ASML? 4. What's on the remainder of your portfolio? 5. Are you an investor, a trader, a speculator, or a WSB type of person?

woome

If I were you and I was looking at ASML, I would buy it for it's own story, and consider NVDA separately as part of industry tailwinds. ASML has its own set of headwinds at the moment (China export controls, TSM backing off on EUV capex), but it also is part of the macro EU growth (central bank cuts) and diversify away from US trends (tariff, depolarization).

Sparkryy

Fair enough, it's just at the moment I'm fully in Nvidia for semiconductors so the question was staying like this or moving some into something like ASML

Sparkryy

Haha, I wish I had investment managers! But yeah at the moment I'm fully in Nvidia so I was just wondering whether diversifying to ASML would be a good move for the future or if I'm just giving up returns for no real reason

woome

The semiconductor industry space is huge, and you're just picking out two well-known players. ASML specializes in photolithography equipment, one of many, albeit important, 100s of steps in semiconductor manufacturing. NVDA designs GPUs and accelerators for the AI demand story. You would have to think more about what you're trying to do here. You could say "diversify", but it's so watered down in this context, you might as well buy MSFT.

xploeris

I've got ASML and TSM as I think both play the "picks and shovels" role very well, but from different angles. Also I thought both were solid, undervalued stocks when I bought them.

Sparkryy

Yeah I mean that's why I'm asking really because it's a complete hypothetical but if Nvidia lost market share and others gained, ASML as the supplier still benefits from the demand

dvdmovie1

> Because it's the market leader? I'm wary of competitors taking market share away from the leader long term You don't know how long that will take if it does occur. Not exactly apples-to-apples, but I've read *countless* posts about how this, that and the other was *certain* to disrupt Visa for probably a decade now. People were *certain* that AMD would catch up to NVDA a year or two ago and it really hasn't happened and still doesn't look to be any time soon. I'm also not getting how ASML would only benefit if NVDA lost while others gained.

Sparkryy

For sure it's just at the moment I don't know what stocks will have that potential. ASML being unaffected in that situation would be a win

AuthorizedShitPoster

It's one way to diversify for sure. But if NVDA loses their dominance I think their stock is going to get hit pretty hard, so it would be even better to buy a group of other semi companies that have the potential to rise in that scenario. ASML is going to be pretty unaffected in such a scenario.

Sparkryy

I did also think about that but as ASML is the supply chain linking them all I thought it would be the best bet

Sparkryy

Because I don't know whatever other stock might eventually eat into that market share so I thought ASML would be the best way to diversify. I own Nvidia because it is the market leader and I believe in it long term but I don't want to put all my eggs in one basket.

Heaven_Knows27

Yeah, that logic actually makes a lot of sense. ASML is upstream in the chip supply chain, and basically every advanced chip relies on their lithography tech including Nvidia’s. So if semis keep booming, ASML rides that wave regardless of which chip designer wins. It won’t fully hedge NVDA, but it definitely helps spread risk across the ecosystem while still being exposed to long term semiconductor growth

Sparkryy

Yeah I guess hedge was the wrong word to use. That's kind of what I was thinking about whether ASML would be good to cover off Nvidia losing market share

Sparkryy

Well I was all in on Nvidia but my friend was discussing long-term that Nvidia may have growing competition and ASML would benefit from that

Sparkryy

No it's just long term im not sure that Nvidia is going to keep its market share so ASML would benefit from any competitors. I'm not saying ASML is going to hedge me against a downturn in semiconductors generally at all

Sparkryy

Because it's the market leader? I'm wary of competitors taking market share away from the leader long term and ASML would benefit from that, that's what I thought but I see there's a lot of different ways to view it from the other comments

JelisHermes

ASML is basically the ultimate picks-and-shovels play in the semi ecosystem. If you’re long semiconductors but wary of NVDA’s valuation, ASML gives you exposure to the entire pipeline without betting on one end-market winner. Personally, I’ve been trying to balance my portfolio with a few high-ROE, wide-moat names that quietly compound over time. ASML fits that profile, even if it’s lumped into “tech.” It’s capital-intensive, yes, but incredibly hard to disrupt.Would love to hear if others use this kind of upstream-downstream pairing as a strategy , e.g., NVDA + ASML, or TSMC + equipment vendors, etc.

Carsmes

Yeah, I was thinking the same, but I’d go with AMD instead of Nvidia since I already have ASML. I just think AMD will eventually catch up a bit and take some market share from Nvidia. For me, it’s kind of a hedge for ASML—mainly because ASML's a European stock and doesn’t spike as hard. If it were listed in the U.S., it’d probably be worth double by now.

Business-Ad-5344

It is VERY sound. as more players enter the game, they would eat up nvidia's profits, yet ASML will keep trucking along. at least this is a very real possibility. if arm starts making chips, and a decade later they caught up, this is not likely, but possible. same with TSM though. if asml loses their monopoly, TSM just gets another supplier and TSM keeps trucking along. This is why diversification within semis is a good idea.

drkgla

We must be nearing the top with posts like this. ASML's growth is intrinsically tied to the rise of Nvidia. Are you imagining a scenario where Nvidia goes down significantly while another designer rises equally to offset the demand lost by ASML? Tell me more about this mythical chip.

TAKINAS_INNOVATION

yea, they're both in the same field lmao. If Nvidia got taken down, ASML would most likely go down with them. Not an expert in this field either, don't own any semis.

Kantmzk

I was a holder of AMD for some years. I should have sold in the 200s when it got there. It will certainly get there and more at some point, and ASML is great, though I can't say I know much of anything about Rolls Royce.

benroon

That will work. I’m heavy on NVDA, RYCEY, ASML and AMD. You can thank me later 😀

motorbikler

https://www.saab.com/newsroom/press-releases/2025/saab-achieves-ai-milestone-with-gripen-e Gripen E is flying with AI right now, provided by Helsing, a defense startup funded by Spotify CEO Daniel Ek. Some European partners are working on their Gen 6 fighter (stealth and AI wingmen) likely to be made without any parts that fall under ITAR, and UK+Japan+Italy are working on another. Defense doesn't pay well. That is well known in tech. You go to it because it's a secure job for US citizens, who are the only ones who can get clearances to work on it. So money isn't the issue. The brightest minds now thinking twice about going to the US now, and some stay in their home country or continue to work in Europe out of a sense of duty. You can't buy everybody. All of what you're saying sounds just like when the US thought Japan could never compete on cars. Or thinking Europe is trash when ASML is the only company who can provide cutting-edge chip making equipment. Or thinking that China only makes crap and can never master quality. They've done it, they've beaten you. They manufacture basically everything you use that requires high tolerances. You cannot make much of what is made in China in the US. The US "tech domination" is in selling ads. Sorry. Almost everything made in the US that falls under tech in the last decade has been just variations on websites. LLMs are fine for some uses but you're not going to get AGI out of it. You had a good thing going and you blew it, because your leadership believes American Exceptionalism is a God-given right and not something you have to _actually do_ every day.

twig1583

!banbet ASML 900 2 weeks

cbusoh66

Just when everyone declared AI hardware overhyped and dead, here comes the real pump, NVDA, AMD, ASML, SMCI, MU, even INTC, DELL, and HPE are all in play.

MakeOSUGreatAgain63

ASML already up nearly 7% since I bought 🙂

Late-Independent3328

I always buy NVIDIA and ASML whenever possible 

SilverSoldier9

Y’all are sleeping on ASML’s chart and technicals

bladzalot

My trading account which I keep under $10k! I sold everything off when the first crash day happened, put everything in just the boring ass Robinhood gold where it earned 4%, then once we started correcting (I waited too long, but only missed like half of the rebound) I bought back into the MAG7 + PLTR, UNH, ASML, ORCL, and AVGO. Instead of losing ~ $3,500 on the crash and gaining $3,500 on the rebound, I lost ~$1k and then gained back ~$3k on the rebound. Overall I do not regret it, but it was a lot of stress, a lot of second guessing, and a lot of bullshit that investors should honestly never have to worry about. A market correction is fine, I get it… a self induced market manipulation 2 month holiday of madness is totally fucked.

Habstah

ASML is chad af

FarrisAT

ASML was idiotically underpricing the US sanctions risk factor in mid 2024. Now it’s idiotically underpricing monopoly over the entire AI industry factor in mid 2025.

AluminiumCaffeine

Weird to see my ASML and LRCX positions back in the green, im used to just dca-ing into them in the red at this point

elgrandorado

Holding ASML peak to trough has been breathtaking to say the least. Nearly $1,100 a share all the way down to $575 during Mangomania was really frustrating, luckily I doubled down as it got close to bottoming out.

nobertan

Material science / chemical engineering production scale tooling companies, it’s the gating factor of everything. (They internally develop the capability for scale; and therefore profitability of a product to market). Semi is reaching multiple impassable stone walls to progress with litho and substrate materials. Battery improvements are stuck up against this. Even fashion, footwear, appliances, medical, construction, food… ***everything***. These are boring and well mature companies, some even paying dividends, but they’ll be chugging along and any future global societal success will be on their shoulders. Anyone striking it rich with the novel IP will be flashes in the pan compared to their steady uptick. Added to that fact, the cost barrier to entry is so vast that there’s a near guarantee of no start-up ‘shaking up the market’. Just pick a basket of all the big boys as there will be ebb and flow on who’s number 1 as each unlock a new production technology. Companies:- **Nano scale tooling:** AMAT / TEL / ASML / LAM / KLA / Carl Zeiss / ASM / JEOL / Hitachi High Tech (China is innovating rapidly as a consequence of export controls, and likely the closest thing to a market shakeup : AMEC / Naura) **Chemical manufacturing / Complex Material Manufacturing** BASF / Dow Inc / LG chem / Formosa Plastics / INEOS / Heraeus Group / Mitsubishi Chemical Group / Heidelberg Materials / Owen’s Corning / 3M / Toray / Dupont / Kyocera / Corning Inc List goes on. Some of these companies are part of wider conglomerates or are unlisted / privately owned businesses, but you get the gist. Semi tooling suppliers are likely inflated rn from AI / major fab investments, but I don’t think they’ll regress back to their boom / bust cycles of old.

Tricky-Ad-6225

I work for a company that provides ASML with a component that goes inside of their photolithography machines , and all I can tell you is our orders are wayyyy down. Do with that what you want.

Tricky-Ad-6225

What’s the point of a company splitting? I mean I understand that the stock will be cheaper to buy, but then there are companies like Netflix and Costco whose stock cost over a thousand dollars. ASML I think was also over a thousand at one point. So how come some do it and others don’t?

JojoChurro

Apple was the company that got me into investing into individual companies on a serious basis. Cause I’ve invested in ETFs since I was 18, but when I was 21 I was working at Dominos, and i started to think a lot about if I had to choose one company to invest my paychecks in on basis of something I could understand, and see protection- or moat- or durability- whatever you want to call it. I’ve used Apple devices my whole life. I understand the “ecosystem lockin” the branding power, the pricing power, the network effects and network login- I talk to my girlfriend who lives in Mexico over the FaceTime feature, and we can listen to music in real time. So, at 190 a share I bought in. And in total when I sold around 239~242 range I profited well in the time I held Them I bought ASML. I used to think hard about it, I still think hard about it, this durability thing. And how integral it is to have moat. but now I value growth within the moat more, Apple has pleauting revenues. And I see it as a secure investment, but not in line where I’m at for a strategic standpoint

Ponchke

Have been buying a lot of ASML this year, kind of happy they have been stagnating this year it gives me a great opportunity to keep buying. One of the most important companies worldwide that is basically a monopoly and keeps growing. Just perfect in my opinion.

Cobra25k

My top 5 picks would be: AMZN, META, ASML, NFLX, CRWD.