ASML

AtheIstan

Bullshit, China mandated 'localization' long before US export controls. I agree that the US export controls are not smart and force self-sufficiency (see: ASML example), but it does not affect China's long term strategy much, only accelerates slightly.

JPL_WSB_BRRRRR

Laughs in ASML 600€ AVG.

Eight_square

Thanks for the insightful comment. It’s rare to see such in-depth discussion on this subreddit nowadays. May I clarify your point: you mean TSMC will fall behind competition because they don’t buy the high NA EUV from ASML while Samsung and Intel did? Currently, TSMC is maxed out on capacity. Don’t you foresee it will continue to max out its capacity in the next few years? If so, the bottleneck of growth will be its manufacturing capacity and profit margin, and not necessarily market share? From my understanding, TSMC thinks high NA EUV is not worth it: TSMC claims they refine their technology to produce similar results, and ASML cannot produce enough to meet TSMC’s demand anyway. As a TSMC investor, I do have concerns about not getting the latest and greatest and letting competitors have it. But I don’t have enough expertise to judge if TSMC’s engineers are right. Intel and Samsung have no choice but to buy from ASML because they do not have the know-how like TSMC. If TSMC can produce the same result without spending 400 million per machine, maybe TSMC can maintain its price competitiveness and even gain market when 1.4nm comes out? And focus their resources to buy the next big thing?

Mannipx

Exactly. They have a very different viewpoint then west. Good luck enforcing it. People were snarking about the euv thing ASML is gonna be left behind while china copy and then improves stuff. 

CFDsForFun

I don’t like it at these prices. Not saying it won’t get going but not worth the risk reward for me. I recently bought a small share in NVO after their pill news and just waiting on sidelines now with maybe 5% of portfolio in cash. But I can sell many winners if I need cash. Google, AMZN, ASML, Reddit are what I did well on last few years.

Heidruns_Herdsman

3d printer the size of a shipping container from ASML.

zordonbyrd

$SNPS or $CDNS - instrumental part of the semiconductor manufacturing process (they supply the design software). $ASML for being maybe the world's only true monopoly and essential for modern chip-making. $ISRG best-in-class surgical robots - going out on a limb, but my guess is that their tech will become more important for more industries over time. $AMZN - the Mag 7 that hasn't really appreciated much over the past several years. Should see margin expansion after the lengthy buildout of their logistics network, growing, high-margin ad business, dominant in cloud and don't count out Trainium and also don't count them out ever since they're so relentlessly focused on growth at almost any cost.

Much_Candle_942

INTC, of course. Always buy on negative news.  ASML is a supplier to a supplier of a supplier of the hyperscalers! Might as well buy materials then, if you go down the value chain.

Vegetable-Bug-9779

While, I can't offer a professional advice, I can tell you what I am doing. Before I invest in any individual stock, I look into numbers. I check revenue, net and operating income,operaring margin, expenses, cash&debt, shares outstanding, free cashflow and more. If I like what I see, I put the company in my watchlist. Then every month I invest in a company from that watchlist where I see disconnection between price and fundamental metrics. I don't look into stories, they are usually short term noise. In the beginning of the year I invested in Google, AMAT, ASML, AMZN. In the last few months I bought more AMZN, SPGI, META, NFLX, MA. I am planning to hold for many years. If you want to see the way I make my research, you can check it in r/stockpickeranalysis. I am posting a lot there. I hope this helps. 10k is not that much money. This loss is something you can learn from. In 10 years you might be thankful for it. Good luck!

Mr_Bonanza

I’m investing in the supply chain: TSM and ASML. TSMC is the only company in the world who can fabricate the chips for nvidia and any of their potential competitors, and ASML is basically the only company who can make the machines that are core to TSMC’s fabrication business… win no matter what happens with AI

fire_alarmist

TSMC probably not gunna be investing in too much new equipment if its just gunna be taken by China huh? Puts on ASML

ArQ7777

Which stock should I choose? If I have to choose one from the three: INTC, TSM and ASML.

Kitchen-Safety4218

Today's concentration mirrors the 1970s "Nifty Fifty" era. Alpha resides in firms commanding the AI infrastructure layer, specifically NVIDIA and ASML. Because these entities control the physical bottlenecks of global compute, they'll likely outpace the broader index's dilution. It's a play on scarcity. So, prioritize hardware moats over speculative software until the credit cycle stabilizes.

WaIlstreetBots

People have been saying that ASML monopoly cannot be breached in 20 years as China has to develop the entire production and logistics chain from the optical glass expertise (Zeiss) to the actual UV technology. Problem is, people severely underestimate China’s capabilities. They not only proved that they have a working prototype EUV machine, but that they can make 3nm chips with it. This all happened within the last month, shit that Bloomberg pundits have been saying is impossible for 20 years. That should tell you everything you need to know. DYOR.

Capable_Wait09

What are the other big names from the top 5 that led to 53%? The most common names I remember are ASML, NVO, LULU, PYPL, and GOOGL. Only Google really made sense to me. Unless you’re using a specific thread where lots of infrequent users commented (like me) so higher performing stocks were overweighted as a result? Like I never see PLTR mentioned in that sub except negatively or ironically as a “degenerate stock”.

Embarrassed_Ad853

Yeah, a lot of us have learned loss using options.  Lost and entire account.  But I learn3d from it and only ever use them for hedging dug in deep amd learned how they work buying and selling calls and puts but not naked anymore and rarely do it.  Mostly in individual stocks.  Keep your head up and keep going stay long and shift quarterly.  I had NVDA when no one knew what is was in 2003.  Id have millions if I would have kept.  You cant follow anything on reddit or get rich quick schemes.  Invest in companies you use, or industries ypu research and understand.  Like I sont touch NVDA because it hurts too much but I do invest in the companies that support it, MU, TSM, ASML.  Look for future tech and research the top 4 companies in those industries, like quantum computing eVTOL, space transportation, AI industries, energy utility companies, Healthcare....look for companies that are no where close to they 52 week highs considsr3d value stocks and do some digging why they went down and determine if those are valid reasons for 30% or 40% declines.  Good luck to.  Ive had multiple accounts down 30-60% and by researching buckling down they've recovered and more.

DefiantDelta

they define it as at least 3 of these occurring within 90 days - NVDA down 50% from ATH, SOXX down 40% from ATH, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI acquired, H100 rentals below $1.00/hr for 5 consecutive days, and/or one supplier (TSM/ASML/AVGO/ANET/SMCI) down 50% from ATH

20half

ASML with there 90% monopoly

Klobbin

ASML

Asrikk

TSM has an absolute vice grip on semiconductor manufacturing. Samsung and Intel are their only real potential competition and Samsung has had issues scaling and fulfilling contracts and Intel arrived very late to the party and are still trying to play catch-up. INTC definitely has the 5x potential IF they can pull the catch-up off. Google and Microsoft both have massive, stable core businesses to build off of which gives them a massive advantage. META is arguably the most forward-thinking consumer-wise, but that's largely at the expense of near-term margins. Their social ads platforms aren't as stable revenue streams as Google's or Microsoft's core businesses IMO. AMZN, AVGO, PLTR, ASML, CRWD are all very heavy growers with their own respective niches in the AI sphere as well.

Strange-Term-4168

ASML controls 100% of EUV lithography machines. Nvidia does not control 100% of chips.

randylush

Yes, ASML is also a monopoly. Believe it or not, it is possible for more than one monopoly to exist in different stages of a supply chain.

Extreme_Sort_3099

This may be an oversimplification. Lithography is the key bottleneck of the chip making process. This is the one key factor that determines how many chips can be made per day, per hour, per year. You could triple your production of source materials or post Lithography machines and still have no change to number of chips made. ASML has a near monopoly on the bottleneck. This means that no matter who wins on the mining side or who wins on the foundry side, ASML stands to gain. Nothing is a sure bet but this is worth a look for sure

nobertan

***No one*** has a roadmap to ‘1nm’, because EUV light wavelength is 12nm. ‘*x* nm’ have been marketing terms for a a while. Improvements have mostly come from FET design vs. feature sizes. N2 node has a gate pitch of 45nm. **N2**’s biggest change is GAA adoption. Finally moving from FinFETs introduced by Intel in 2011. **A16** is **Backside power delivery** (can increase transistor density via less dense power delivery on the front side while also improving efficiency by reduction in crosstalk from the extremely tightly packed power switching) — this the **BIG** one I mentioned. Power usage of chips have been steadily increasing with no abatement over the last 10 years, ***THIS*** will folks address that. Intel are attempting to introduce GAA and Backside power delivery in one process node (as well as finally move to EUV, so a 3rd learning curve there). Predictably, this has already been delayed twice. Slated for scale production 2026/2027 , TSMC’s A16 competitor also slated for 2026/2027 scale production. *If by some miracle they pull it off, they will be a generation ahead. Extremely doubtful given their talent exodus since 2016.l layoffs.* Finally, TSMC have been dominant due to early adoption of EUV, compared with Intels ‘whoopsie’ in buying **none** and being stuck on the 14nm +++ node. ASML’s next iteration of hardware (High-NA EUV) is being ordered by everyone this time, Intel / Samsung / ETC. They’re real ***risks*** to monitor and keep note of. They might be improbable, thanks to Intel perpetually flailing.

PatrickWhelan

Hey a topic I can actually contribute on! I worked for ASML for a decade, as an engineer/engineering manager working on new product introduction for EUV (and the HiNa EUV) from 2014 onward. It has never been a secret that eventually China would make an EUV machine for chip production, they've been locked out of the cutting edge chip manufacturing business by trade policies for as long as I was in the industry, and it's a huge geopolitical risk to not be able to produce high end ICs. They have been working on the tech for over a decade. That being said, this just isn't the type of thing that has "breakthroughs" at this point. There is not going to be a milestone China hits that dramatically changes the picture for ASML, at worst, for ASML, it would be slow erosion of their DUV market share, which funds competitors closing the gap on them over time and catching up with EUV, but these are technologies that take ages to develop, iterate on, refine, and manufacture. Even if you dropped off every the print for every part in an ASML EXE machine in Beijing, to develop fabrication processes for the optics might take a half a decade. Even if you dropped off all the equipment and process knowledge to make the machine, the lead time itself from the first cut of metal and glass is easily 18 months to have something installed and operational. This is just straight up spotting the country every bit of R&D expense. At ASML, the NPI machines being made, just building them required basically bending the laws of physics - I remember one product I worked on we couldn't ship a specific part because it was out of spec by less than 10 ATOMS of material across an entire optical surface. This stuff has armies of PHDs working on every inch of it at this point, you can close the gap, slowly, but there is no leapfrog or shortcut left here. China has WAY more opportunity to eat into the IC market through revolutionary IC design than through closing the gap on litho tooling. They'll knock off companies like $NVDA way before they can knock off a company like $ASML.

Man_to_Men

I just felt like asml had it's runup and reached what I consider a fair value Nothing negative about ASML, I just felt Meta at $600 was a better opportunity than ASML at $1000 I could be wrong and asml performs better going forward but I locked in 42% gains so I'm happy

Independent_Buy5152

Why? It is easier for them to steal TSM’s IP compared to ASML’s. They don’t need to claim Taiwan only for TSM

elias-el

Full ported 30k in GOOG calls in April. Sold 50% after the DOJ ruling, then bought calls for ASML, UNH and space stocks (ASTS, RKLB, LUNR). Made quite a bit of money. Port went to 300k. Sold more GOOG and ASML for regarded critical minerals plays (UUUU primarily), made additional 150k, then lost it all + more. Lost even more when space stocks dumped. But now back to 360k for the year. Happy with it. Rotated into LEAPS for lower-beta stocks...

GelekW

I had a pretty good hit rate with Google, ASML, gold, indexes, POET lately. My brk.b sits doing nothing but makes me feel safer.

SlfImpr

Whoever thinks that AI trade is dead: * In 2024, Google CEO had to apologize for AI mistakes: [https://www.semafor.com/article/02/27/2024/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-calls-ai-tools-responses-completely-unacceptable](https://www.semafor.com/article/02/27/2024/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-calls-ai-tools-responses-completely-unacceptable) * In early 2025, Google stock was heavily beaten down because AI was going to replace search revenue * Look at Google stock now If you think we have reached peak AI in 2025 and there is no more growth left for NVDA, AVGO, AMD, INTC, TSMC, MRVL, ASML, VRT or other semiconductor stocks, you have no idea what is coming in next 2 years!!

Mojo_Amok

Think about sector based ETFs, which can be quite lively from a growth standpoint. Losses from any one company in the fund are generally canibalized by the others, so you'll be moving upwards with the sector even if headline firms take a hit. I'm in tech and am convinced that the picks and shovels plays on the AI boom are no bubble in the long run even if there's some sort of sideways dip. The hyperscalers/trainers are risky investments in a fast moving environment with a lot of the best firms not having made an IPO and the threat of Chinese open source models beating them anyway. Supporting this effort is the semiconductor industry, which has hit an incredible level of sophistication and profitability. IMO, the best way in is with one of the ETFs that track the old PHLX Philadelphia Semiconductor index: SOXX, SOXQ (cheap expense ratio), or SMH. Start researching semiconductor fabrication and things like the 2nm process or ASML products. Then when the market dips, you have faith in the 10 year trajectory of the industry and don't hit the sell button. If the data centers flounder for any reason, the Edge chip market will likely thrive (Apple, Qualcom, ARM, etc.). Otherwise, all those VOO type indexes are great. I've got FIDU in my back pocket as something safe that could overperform too. I like FTEC as an alternative to QQQ for whatever reason.

Adept_Mountain9532

i will buy: GOOGL MSFT ASML MONGO KINETIK

Curious-Intern-5434

Essentially the same I held in the last 9 years: all S&P 500 dividend aristocrats plus a bunch of growth stocks plus some stocks in the tech sector. In total a little over 100 positions. This includes these tech stocks: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, ASML Holdings, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Synopsis, Fortinet, Salesforce, Atlassian, Adobe, Applied Materials, Duolingo, Meta, Service Now, Reddit, Palo Alto Networks. I think it's more about what exposure you want than what exposure I have. Your investment goals are likely to be very different to mine. All the best!

plasticbug

Thinking about ASML and AAPL. Boh have come down some and are in bullish trend, so thinking about selling puts on them.

Old_Sausages_455

I added Celestica (CLS) and ASML for 2026

Stormshot56

ASML is awesome. Alphabet , Amazon , Visa , Uber

tinny66666

They hired an ex-ASML engineer, so I'm not sure that qualifies as espionage (not to say they don't engage in it though).

NotAriGold

Went fro $5K to $48K now. Powered by Google, ASML, AMD and others

apeawake

That’s really great.  I made 15% in my main account which was remarkable because the vol was minimal. Max draw down was 3%. I caught the bottom in Google and made some good trades in Applied TSM and ASML with minimal risk from where I bought in April. I owned a good sized gold position until October.  Made 57% in my Roth taking highest conviction bets (lot of google here, too) Made 7% :/ in my smaller Ira being conservative - names like CNI, Pepsi, Vici

sailortyx56

Kind of insane that China managed to build a complete EUV machine before us. [Link](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/) (assuming the Reuters report is true) We patent out so much of the tech to ASML, yet we don't know how to build out the entire thing here.

Antestor01

Google, Berkshire, ASML, TSMC, Visa, Mastercard, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, S&P, Moodys

FrankDrebinOnReddit

I don't believe Chinese EUV will ever compete with ASML (hence why I said ASML isn't going anywhere), but that China will have EUV technology for domestic semiconductor manufacturing already. Not next year, and probably not the year after, but it's inevitable that it'll happen.

NationalTranslator12

I work at ASML. People that say that China will develop EUV tools and compete with ASML do not understand ASML or EUV for that matter. It is not just EUV. It is the Source (Cymer), the drive laser (Trumpf) the mirrors (Zeiss), the Wafer handler (VDL), R&D partners (IMEC), and many more suppliers. On top of this you need to add all of the qualification steps which ASML does in house and is company secret. So in order to build an EUV machine, you need the complete supply chain plus what ASML does. Even if they succeeded in building an EUV machine, they would need years to learn how to use them, reason why ASML customers are buying High NA before volume production. If you think that this is not a lot already, ASML uses twinscan technology to maximize output and it is the only equipment manufacturer that does this. So if any Chinese EUV machine ever came to market, it would never compete with ASML and just be used domestically because of sanctions. By the time that China could develop the equivalent of an old NXE, ASML will have hyper NA. And ASML profits are not as high as what software companies are making, so the investment does not make economic sense either.

ChemicalPoetRewrite

It is not, the moat is already priced in, and the risks are rising faster than the hype. Expectation saturation: ASML has been known as a monopoly for years. Markets price future surprises, not known facts. Cyclical demand: Semiconductor capex moves in cycles. Foundries paused or delayed orders in 2023–24, which caps near-term growth. Export controls: US-led restrictions on China directly limit ASML’s largest growth market. That’s a structural overhang on revenue. Long revenue lead times: EUV machines take years to build and deliver. Even huge demand doesn’t instantly convert to earnings. Valuation ceiling: ASML already trades at a premium. To rise further, it needs upside beyond “we are essential”, not just confirmation of it. ASML’s importance is undisputed, but markets are weighing geopolitical risk + cyclicality against that importance. It’s not underappreciated, it’s strategically constrained.

OrcOgi

ASML is Europe clown

OrcOgi

Bot comment. ASML is Dutch you clown

ComplexEntertainer13

Building a EUV light source is not hard. The hard part is putting in production. ASML had their first demonstrator working over a decade before mass production. Give me a call when they hit 150-200W output with high uptime and reliability. That is where ASML was when TSMC started using their machines.

FruitOrchards

Could have bought 1500k of Rolls Royce, BAE, Rheinmetall, ASML, Lockheed Martin and some copper stock and looked back in 5 years at something crazy

Wendy2016823

The core point is that ASML sits at a critical bottleneck rather than a fast growth consumer play. One nuance worth adding is that this kind of constraint driven business often translates less into explosive revenue growth and more into long term pricing power, backlog visibility, and strategic importance, which the market sometimes values differently than pure volume expansion.

AccomplishedLeek1329

The article literally says that ex-ASML employees have been given new names and Chinese citizenship lol

ImNotAnEnigmaa

I know. But ASML is based off of the research done by the American Department of Energy. The tech that ASML uses is licensed from the United States: https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort ASML specifically relies on technology licensed by EUV LLC, an American entity created by the Department of Energy.

kalakesri

China has likely reverse engineered ASML and GBU-57 bols are fucked

Tamarahskincare

ASML has tech that self destructs when they try to reverse engineer. It is gonna happen at some point as machines move and get sold around, we even had some old calibration dyes that were from the soviet union that ended up here in the states. China can't reverse engineer ASML as the machine self destructs, they have tried and failed. They are now approaching it differently using Laser induced discharge using a circuit to electrically discharges to create the high energy uv waves. They are using a very different laser source and will have to develop their own incidence grazing mirrors for this system.

1mp3rf3c7

To you as well! I like GOOG, NVDA, ASML, and others, but they are expensive at the moment.

NotMyMainLoLzy

They have an EUV machine in Shanghai. A working one not controlled by ASML. Take that as you will.

btoned

#ASML

Otherwise-Coyote6950

[](https://x.com/Megatron_ron)BREAKING: The monopoly is over China has succeeded in producing an ultraviolet lithography machine for the production of advanced chips - Reuters China built a prototype extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machine in Shenzhen, the tool needed for the most advanced chipmaking, Reuters reports. Until now, ASML is the only company that has truly cracked EUV technology. Its machines cost about $250 million each and are critical for making the most advanced chips designed by Nvidia and AMD, and manufactured by TSMC, Intel, and Samsung. The result marks the payoff of a 6-year government program focused on semiconductor independence. People compared it to China’s version of the Manhattan Project, the U.S. wartime program that built the atomic bomb. Sources describe former ASML engineers helping reverse engineer parts of the system, and Huawei coordinating a wider effort across labs and suppliers. “The aim is for China to eventually be able to make advanced chips on machines that are entirely China-made,” one of the people said. " China wants the United States 100% kicked out of its supply chains."

Otherwise-Coyote6950

China has successfully reverse engineered ASML EUV machines. ASML is ruined, it's game over for them. Puts on them until they hit zero

sean2449

Yeah, sure. Still needs 2 more years to finally catch up ASML DUV model 30 years ago.

FarrisAT

I think the entire hyperscaler complex is oversold and undervalued. Yesterday I bought ~some Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, Amazon, TSMC, Google, and ASML. My view is simple. If AI turns out to fulfill the hype, we all win. If AI turns out to be half its hype, the OpenAI’s and neoclouds die, and hyperscalers eat the carcasses. If AI turns out to be a bust, the hyperscalers return their CapEx levels back to 2022 and Nvidia goes bankrupt.

r0w33

The only part of this story that's interesting is that ASML were apparently employing chinese engineers in positions with access to trade secrets.

soulreaper0lu

Do you think that Europe won't regulate against China the same way they're doing right now to help their car/EV manufacturing? ASML is headquartered in the Netherlands, and as of right now there is no indication that EU will cooperate with China on that field. (Well.. unless the US continues to push for it lol)

VirtualMemory9196

Why is the entire thread American vs China? ASML is not even American

VirtualMemory9196

ASML is not American btw

deployant_100

It doesn't matter, there was a decision to detangle supply chain for critical products around covid. And I doubt that chinese machines get all their components from China, or that they will have better yields than ASML machines for a very long time.

Winterough

ASML hasn’t scaled much at all compared to the demand.

sailortyx56

They would have kept today flat and tanked tomorrow before the BOJ decision. But the ASML China news triggered the algo sell off. lol.

reeeelllaaaayyy823

Current US administration doesn't control ASML though.

thefpspower

ASML also makes the software stack for these machines and as you may imagine its costumized based on customer needs with decades of experience. Nobody is going to be switching to chinese machines overnight just because they are a bit cheaper. These companies operate on schedules years ahead.

TheKinkslayer

The article talks about recent graduates reverse engineering those acquired grey market ASML parts. As there's no grey market for EUV scanner parts, and the conceptual differences between EUV and DUV scanners that pretty much means that they are reverse engineering DUV (probably non-immersion ones) wafer stages. Which are not actually the same between machines as one has to work under vacuum and they have different alignment specs, but it provides them a starting point to build their own parts. As they confirm that they are still working on that, it confirms my assessment that they are at the Micro-Exposure Tool stage (being able to expose a pattern on a small field of a wafer) rather than at the Alpha-Demo Tool stage (being able to expose a full reticle many times across an entire wafer). And from there, there's still the big leap that you talk about. A little more hopeful for their project is that they poached ASML's head of light source technology, whom I expect took with him plenty of proprietary information to recreate a Laser Produced Plasma light source (rather than the modified Discharge Produced Plasma that CN sources claimed last year that they were developing from scratch).

fire_alarmist

Fuck... I was literally debating the entire last week about starting an ASML short position. Guess I gotta sit it out and wait for a good entry now if market reacts quick.

sailortyx56

Reuters reporting that China hired enough ex-engineers from ASML and managed to reverse engineer their tech. [Link](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/) lol.

Kru1zer

Share buybacks too ASML is guilty of this, no innovation just valuations greed

Boring_Bore

Poaching ASML talent will definitely speed the process up for them.

Different_Soup_5208

holy China managed to reverse engineer ASMLs EUV machines according to Reuters. Puts on ASML

btoned

ASML 🔥

CenkIsABuffalo

Lol do you realize Huawei for example offers engineers from ASML and TSMC double or even triple the salary to work for them?

Amazing_Bat_1498

But it is not purchased in Asia either and most Chinees airlines still prefer Boeing and Airbus over them. The statement that they fly the same distance is not accurate either and it is 10% less fuel effcient despite having 20 less seats. That being said, i am sure certification play some role, but even asian airlines have until this point not shown a lot of interest in it. Also as mentioned i took them 17 years to get to this point. What makes people think they will do any better in EUV considering we are talking about what probably are the most advanced machines ever made by humans. Also one of the reasons i believe they have become so good at making cars is because cars require far less components than airplanes and because most car manufactureres make most of their cars from top to botom in-house as compared to Airbus and Boeing who rely on a vast pool of suppliers from all around the world. So when western car manufactureres started making cars in china, they had much more of a complete puzzle on how to makes cars as compared to planes that need far more components from many more different suppliers all around the world. The same goes for ASML. Their machines weighs 200 tonns and uses over 100 000 components, som produced in-house, but many produce by a large pool of over 1000 different suppliers. Add to this that ASML, never have made any EUV machines in China before, like car and plane manufactureres have, they wil have even less of the work cut out for them. Considering the head start ASML has and how advanced this technology is, there is just no way they or anyone else will be able to compete within the next couple of decades, even if they were able to make a working machine it will be far inferior compared to what ASML might have by the time they make their first machine. The article also says that the machine is much larger than ASML and that it spans through a whole floor. Despite this it still seems incomplete as it doesnt work yet. This sounds quite worrying and inconvinient considering EUV-machines already are freaking huuuge. Like how much larger will it be when it finally works? Add to the fact that their chipmaking industry today is entirely dependent on 10 year old DUV-machines from ASML, because of export restrictions. How do people suppose they go from not being able to reverse engineer DUV machines from 2014 despite trying for over a decade to making better EUV machines than ASML In a matter of a few years. People thinking EUV machines from China must be just around the corner, because «hey look at their cars or what have you» dont have any clue as to how complicated lithography machines are and even then they forget how long it took them to reach this point.

IronWhitin

As a gaming PC entusiasti in willing to test this teory even if im gonna lose ASML.

PushingSam

It took the west 30 years to commercialize this, and key improvements in throughput are still being made within the platform. It's not cope, and Huawei and SMIC have already proven what China can do on just DUV immersion. EUV has some other really specific things that will take time, simply because the puzzle is so big. Things that took companies like ASML with 10.000 people crunching the numbers to figure out. Of course it's a time thing, but it's far from cope. Bringing this into production is simply said, very involved, even given a giant pile of resources. Japan also tried the race to EUV, and burned billions in the process.

coludFF_h

These retired ASML employees did not possess the key knowledge. Their technological success primarily depended on Chinese universities and research institutions

MangoFishDev

The problem is that it's China, they don't play the same game of rent-seeking by restricting reply and relying on crazy margins They'll pump out these machines at scale and bankrupt the likes of ASML who haven't bothered to expand production because it's more efficient for shareholders to do stock buybacks than to increase production since you're just going to reduce your profit margin so why invest?

GoosePuzzleheaded771

It's funny, for years the ASML hype was fueled by their "Monopoly" position.  If that goes away, so does the stock.

Juan_Kagawa

> One veteran Chinese engineer from ASML recruited to the project was surprised to find that his generous signing bonus came with an identification card issued under a false name, according to one of the people, who was familiar with his recruitment. Once inside, he recognized other former ASML colleagues who were also working under aliases and was instructed to use their fake names at work to maintain secrecy, the person said. Another person independently confirmed that recruits were given fake IDs to conceal their identities from other workers inside the secure facility. The guidance was clear, the two people said: Classified under national security, no one outside the compound could know what they were building—or that they were there at all. Somehow I feel like they'll hit that 2028 target.

sicklyslick

Are you actually dumb? It's in the article that OP linked. >It was built by a team of former engineers from Dutch semiconductor giant ASML (ASML.AS), opens new tab who reverse-engineered the company's extreme ultraviolet lithography machines or EUVs, according to two people with knowledge of the project.

sicklyslick

The article literally says China used ASML ex-employees to build this. So yeah, that's what they did. They invited the Dutch or American or whomever.

Amazing_Bat_1498

Car manufactureres dug their own grave by outsourcing so much of their production to China. Not did they basically make a step by step tutorial for them on how to make cars, they handguided them through each process. Considering how many cars were produced in China It was always only a matter a time before chineese car companies would spinn out of all the countless production facilities that were built there by german and american car makers. I think a lot of the reason the C919 hasnt been a success story is because while car manufactureres make most of their cars in-house from top to bottom, Boeing and Airbus rely on a much bigger pool of suppliers who make many of the different parts for them, much like ASML. Also airplanes are of course much harder to copy, because they consists of far more components. Even though both airbus and boeing assemble some of their airplanes in China as well as manufacturering some of their parts there, since car manufactureres have much more of a top to bottom approach as compared to Boeing and Airbus they had more of a complete puzzle on how to make cars as compared to airplanes. With virtually an export ban on many of the critical components and considering that each ASML machine consists of over 100 000 components delivered by over 1000 different suppliers, they will have a long way to go before they or anyone else can compete with ASML within EUV. Add to the fact that both car and avionics technology is a much more mature field of technology than EUV-machines are, i think it will prove be much harder to simply reverse-engineer EUV components than it is to reverse engineer car or airplane components.

HorsesandPorsches

you think ASML shits out these 350 million dollar machines every minute?

vargaking

They are still like 25 years behind ASML if you read into the article. Insane clickbait

cuteman

6% on ASML is nothing. Let me know if it ever dips to $800-900

LargeSinkholesInNYC

Got downvoted several times for saying ASML shouldn't have gone up as much as it did because of China.

Intelligent-Donut-10

The problem with ASML is their entire business model is based on having a monopoly, and China is a country that doesn't take prisoners. Case in point: nobody will buy a western 16gb ram stick for $500 if they can buy a Chinese 64 gb ram stick for $50, that means no sales to western fabs, which means no sales to ASML.

LargeSinkholesInNYC

I told you ASML was overvalued. Yet some stupid bagholder downvoted me and called me a fucking idiot. Reddit is full of bagholding braindead neckbeards.

Consistent_Panda5891

Difference is west will buy Chinese as is cheaper as usual. Sinking ship is ASML, once it looses monopoly next year cracks 50%

Good-Bid-7325

I've considered adding it but I already own ASML and I don't enjoy owning multiple stocks that go down during the same days

slimkay

> Sure but where are you going to get experienced people in lithography ? China has poached ASML employees - the article makes that clear.

slimkay

They didn't steal IP... they just poached ASML's best and brightest with fat signing bonuses.

PushingSam

What people fail to understand is that ASML is a software company, the juju isn't necessarily in the hardware. It's how all the things within the machine (and process) interact. Even if you were physically able to replicate the machine, that's only a small part of the game. Yes, there's some really complicated parts on the hardware side, like the mirrors, but most of those are somewhat easy to overcome. A lot of aerospace gear uses similar processes and materials like zerodur as example. Making the machine tick is a gazillion lines of code though.

Mrbusje1

I was actually surprised to learn that ASML already had the technology in the early 2000 but just started shipping them in 2018!

TheKinkslayer

The development of EUV Litho followed this rough timeline: 1990's - First experiments Early 2000's - Micro-exposure tools late 2000's - ASML's Alpha Demo Tool mid 2010's - First mass production tools China is currently on the Micro-exposure tool stage. Even if they just copied existing machines through their suspected industrial espionage campaigns, they are at least 10 years away from having something ready for mass production. And even then, it will be a coin-toss whether the program is as successful as their Electric Car industry or just as *meh* as their C919 commercial airline project.