ASML

Samjabr

Every semi is trash except NVDA. I don't mean as a company. I mean their valuations. They are being bid up in tandem to NVDA, and they are not going to deliver. Just look at DELL, MU, ASML, TSM, AMD, NXPI, etc.

elgrandorado

Just as I begged the market to drop ASML into my current margin of safety, the market begins to pump again.....

Eclipsed830

Their largest factory hasn't officially opened yet, it is in New Taipei (Taiwan). ASML employs around [5,000 people in Taiwan](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2022/11/18/2003789129).

GetreideJorge

ASMLs Websites says there are 7 factories, but shows only the locations of 6. Just 2 of the shown are in Taiwan. Based on the number of employees in the factories, the two in Taiwan belong to the small factories. They have together 900 employees in comparison to 3000 in the Netherlands. The two factories in the US have also together more employees (1300) than the ones in Taiwan. I think the US has some power over ASML, but in the end ts still a European company.

diamanthaende

ASML putting up a tough fight. Will be interesting again below €800. Maybe when the American bears join the dogging later on…

EagleOfFreedom1

Looks great. Keep up the good work. Only thing I can mention is carefully consider ASML's dependence on Chinese revenue in the current geopolitical environment.

4verCurious

MSFT, ASML, LVMUY and maybe LULU

thalamisa

GOOGL, GRND, AMD (average down). Liquidated my ASML because I am expecting more sanctions coming for the company.

KingTrezo

ASML up 7% ah??? Wtf

Raendor

ASML, though could’ve gotten it cheaper today if waited earlier in the week. Wish I had more cash on a sideline, but I tend to be almost fully invested and resist the itch to use the emergency fund cash on days like these.

pvnieuw

ASML is 30% lower than 14 days ago 

elgrandorado

I look for dominant companies in their respective industries with pricing power. I don't really care to diversify much outside of tech or US/international split. ASML makes up more than 20% of my holdings and MELI makes up an additional 6%, so I have plenty of international exposure there.

diamanthaende

I'll buy ASML at €800 - if it falls that low.

MordorBlues

ASML is the most important and powerful corp on the planet. It should have a 5 trillion+ market cap to be honest.

r_india_mod_

Did you look into ASML?

SuXs

No. But you seem to be confused as to who is the supplier and who is the consumer in this commercial relationship. The EU is the supplier (ASML) : *They* dictate the conditions of this relationship. Not the US. They will sell to whomever they want to and there is nothing the US can do about it except bitch and moan. Unless they want to loose their edge with NVDA. There is a reason all these chip companies are moving manufacturing back to the EU and closer to ASML... The supply risk is real.

Exciting_Light_4251

I (Britain based) split my main activities over 13 stocks and 6 etfs: Stocks: Apple - 9% Nvidia - 8% Disney - 7% Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy - 7% ASML - 7% Liberty Media (F1) - 6% Meta - 5% McDonald’s - 5% Airbus - 4% Raspberry Pi - 4% Ford - 3% Volvo - 3% Tesco - 2% ETFs: XMBR - Brazil - 4% TRIP - holidays, hotels, and airlines - 4% NATP - NATO contractors and suppliers - 5% VUAG - S&P500 - 5% XS6R - ESG screened European utilitities - 6% AIAI - artificial intelligence - 6% Next to this I made different pies tracking F1 teams and their partners, and Motorsport teams and suppliers. Just for funsies. Any tips and advises?

Samjabr

So, you think that ASML will just go bankrupt? I am confused. good luck with that!

SuXs

You realize the EU can just stop selling ASML product to anyone outside the EU right ? How is NVDA/TSMC going to produce anything then ? Dont hurt the hand that feeds you applies here.

___TychoBrahe

And they got their ASML semicon plants up and running in Oregon for the lasat 4 months https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OrYDyhztKg Impressive machines

siberian

Latest gen ASML machines being installed in New Jersey. Expect them to get a lot more of that re-industrialization cash over the next few years as a hedge against TSMC.

AI_go_boomboom

TSM, ASML, now this. Streets just dumping semis left and right

tabspdx

Yes. There are two leading edge fab companies on the planet, and they are called TSMC and Samsung. Then Intel is maybe one generation behind. But all of them need equipment form ASML.

elgrandorado

They also make up that similar sum for ASML. I wouldn't worry too much if the US bans exports entirely with China on tech like this, because it means something much worse has happened to cause this.

davidbigham

ASML and NVDA just had to dump last week to fk my call. 

Kazgarth_

Their loss, in the US, some states are begging Intel to build fabs in their respective state (with tax incentives and grants) to attract the top talents in the industry. Semiconductor manufacturing is the heart of everything in the future. The spice of AI. Everything will have chip inside from your eyeglasses to the future army of robots & drones that will replace most factory workers and delivery. Intel's $100 billion fab in Germany is still going according to plans and it's going to boost Germany's global presence by having a fab full of ASML's next-gen High-NA EUV machines, the newest and hottest machines in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.

ISeeYourBeaver

Please recover, ASML...please.

kemar7856

ASML up 3%

PushingSam

This whole chip situation is a China vs. EU vs. US thing, the Netherlands and Germany have also committed a fair amount of corporate welfare to ASML (and Zeiss, ASML by extension). What will be interesting to see is how Trump coming into office, and ASML's patent, and China export situation looks like. Hostility from the EU and US towards eachother wouldn't be unlikely either.

elgrandorado

Sharing my non-retirement personal portfolio. ASML: 21% SPGI: 18% NOW: 16% HWKN: 11% MA: 11% GOOG: 10% HWKN: 7% MELI: 5%

No_Annual_6059

NVDA/TSM/ASML/ARM more dump > buy put

SlickHorsey

An example is MU. I opened a call position at 130 strike 120 DTE when MU was at 130 the day before ASML announced earnings. In my head, it was relatively safe since it kept hitting the month's support. I wasn't trying to play ASML's earnings but because of the poor earnings report and what happened with the trump news of Taiwan defense, it dropped. I felt confident on TSM having a good earnings so I held to try to recoup but as you know, semis continued downwards in any case. So I was thinking in the future, open a protective put for earnings that could potentially affect the contracts I'm holding.

Samjabr

Not trying to sound jingoistic here, but the EU is kind of shit out of luck. One could consider this bullying, but these are "contractual" understandings. If a company's products rely on more than 20% of the USs IP, then we very much have the right to restrict release of that product. This is not an old law. It's first iteration was 1959 and it has been amended a few times since then. If ASML didn't like the restriction, they were free to develop a technology to replace the US made one, and then sell to whomever they want. The likely reason they didn't create a replacement is because the tech we created is as technically complex as the one that ASML holds proprietary rights on. One must understand, this is a very complex geopolitical game. Certainly, the EU has cards to play, but in the end, we are the 800lb gorilla (Most consuming mofos on earth). We don't want to bitch-slap anyone, but we sure as shit can.

SuXs

The EU will not sit idle while the US bullies one of it's only success story. Even trump is smart enough to know that. ASML will continue selling to China through subsidiaries and everyone will pretend the issue is resolved. Anything further than that and you're looking at import duties on US semis. The EU can be nasty too. You don't want to hurt the company that is driving your economic boom.

Raendor

Main point is - US won’t have those advanced fabs if they themselves destruct ASML’s success. And if ASML can’t sell machines to China - they by default will end up bought for elsewhere, making this whole story a huge nuisance and market noise. Block or no block - there will be still same huge sales to whichever region is building fabs.

Jora_

Buy ASML. Buy NVDA. Got it. Thanks for the DD.

Samjabr

You might be right that we buy it all. But technically we can block sales to China through the Foreign Direct Product Rule - ASML would not exist without the grant of US tech. And that rule says if we want, we can forbid foreign companies from selling tech that contains our IP. This is not a uniquely American idea, but we definitely have the clout to enforce it. That's why we ultimately have control over whether Seagate, ASML, Tokyo Election, etc. can sell to certain countries.

Arkanslaughter

ASML fell last quarter too. They literally have nothing to do with whether or not semis go up or down. Lithography machines don’t need to be bought to produce more chips unless chip makers are expanding their means of production and they honestly probably like having this stranglehold on the market and being able to say. “Sold out through 2026.”

Raendor

Should’ve been phrased better than for correctness. This year being claimed as relatively weak by ASML itself is a well known fact to me being from NL. In my view it’s a very strong sign of greater things only yet to come in the coming years despite already baked in expectations. Even if AI stinks - we’ll still need more capable chips and compute power with better efficiency decades and decades ahead.

TheDiligentDog

They beat estimates for Q2 but were down YoY. That's what OP is trying to say in his post. The problem is ASML said long before that this year will be a transition year for them AKA them being down YoY is expected and the same exact situation happened in Q1 this year (in fact net income was down even more back then, precisely 37%, for Q2 it was only 18%).

TheDiligentDog

Idk dude, you make it sound like people sold TSMC because they realised they beat earnings only because they raised prices. Tf? Didn't you pay attention to mango man and him saying he wouldn't protect Taiwan? That was the reason. And ASML said long time before that this year will be a transition year and them not beating YoY is expected. Look what happened with Q1, they reported earnings on 17th of April and net income fell to €1.22 billion from €2.0 billion. The stock tanked 5% back then, this time more because of Biden's administration comments (like you said) and yet, when NVDA reported their earnings a month later (22nd of May), we got an insane rally to new ATH. AMD also tanked after they reported their Q1 earnings btw TL;DR ASML =/= TSMC =/= AMD =/= NVDA

RNutt

While concerns about ASML and geopolitical tensions are valid, they don't fully capture the bigger picture of the semiconductor industry. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical due to rapid technological advancements, fluctuating demand, and supply chain dynamics. Historically, periods of high demand, driven by innovations and consumer electronics growth, led to increased production and investment. However, overcapacity and inventory build-ups can result in sharp downturns. Economic conditions, shifts in consumer preferences, and geopolitical factors also contribute to this cyclicality. Boom cycles often see rising prices and profits, while bust cycles involve price declines, reduced profits, and sometimes industry consolidation. NVDA isn't immune to any of these industry realities. However, NVDA has some characteristics that most semiconductor companies can't claim. * **Nvidia's Unique Position:** Nvidia is uniquely positioned with its dominance in the GPU market, which is essential for AI, gaming, and data centers. The demand for AI and machine learning applications is surging, providing a strong growth catalyst for Nvidia that isn't as impacted by the specific issues facing ASML. * **Strong Financial Performance:** Nvidia has consistently posted strong earnings, often exceeding expectations. Their latest earnings report highlighted a significant growth trajectory, driven by robust demand in their core markets. This positions Nvidia differently compared to companies like ASML, which face distinct challenges. * **TSMC's price hike strategy:** Price increase isn't what propels NVDA's stock. Nvidia's growth is fueled by technological advancements and increasing adoption of AI across various industries, rather than just price adjustments. * **Diversification and Innovation:** Nvidia's diverse product portfolio and continuous innovation provide multiple revenue streams and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical issues affecting specific markets or products. * **Market Sentiment and Momentum:** Market sentiment around Nvidia remains positive, supported by strong institutional backing and analyst upgrades. This momentum can help sustain its stock performance even amid broader market volatility.

LostRedditor5

Gotcha. I didn’t follow ASML tbh. But that at least makes more sense

Skeezerman

ASML does not represent industry as a whole.  ASML provides the highest end litho equipment.  What’s happening now is an advanced packaging revolution, which is not driven by changes in the smallest features size.  It’s conversion to 3D architectures and uses, generally, course feature types.  ASML provides tools for these processes but it’s old tech.

2QuarterDollar

The China Taiwan conflict has been looming over the semiconductor industry since forever, so to sharply discount the entire sector because of a new threatening talk is not realistic and fair. ASML is not the bellwether for the entire semi industry. It also comes down to management competency, competitive advantages and products in pipeline. I think you’re right wrt to AMD, people have been favoring that one too much while there are definitely threats out there for example Intel said they are close to gaining on AMD. But there won’t a be a sector wide selloff, however the winners and losers will now become apparent. In the H2 of 2024 we will see which company really has an competitive edge / moat and which one have just been lifting on the Ai semi trend wave. I would recommend to choose your position carefully and not blatantly sell off everything. Companies in my scope: ARM, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, AVGO, ASML, TSM, SMCI, Meta, Microsoft, AAPL. Probably there are more but I expect some to show sharp corrections while others will thrive further

LordOfPraise

“Be warned”. A random redditor basis his entire thesis on ASML that has not yet been affected by the US-China restrictions and thus having to adjust to it now forcing the company to guide lower. Like that thesis is a threat to anything 🙄

LordOfPraise

ASML DID beat. However, their guidance was disappointing due to the talk of stricter China tariffs.

Raendor

ASML did beat on earnings though. No idea what shit info this guy reads.

LostRedditor5

Your post makes no sense bc both the examples you used went down bc of external factors TSM over trump comments and tariff talk from Biden ASML over tariff talk from Biden Also the entire sector is being rotated out of over rate cut hopes Even in the example you state ASML DIDNT beat lol. Hey guys semis will beat but then go down anyways, look at ASML they didn’t beat and went down anyways. Like wtf are you on about

Raendor

Buying ASML next week at this sweet re-entry point. The company will be killing with their ROE in the next 5 years and I have little doubt it’ll be different in 10. The China thesis is laughable. If they can’t sell to China because of US - it will only be because the US will end up buying themselves for all those new fabs they want to have back for chip production.

Far_Sentence_5036

Meta or ASML/ASM look interesting

Electrical_County_61

ASML

davidbigham

Lost 5K on ASML this week. Motherfker went from 1067 to 898 in just 3 days 

33erer

I did but not sure it changes anything. Anyway, I don’t think a great buying opportunity has presented itself yet because overvalued stocks have become slightly less overvalued. Can’t go wrong with the pure monopolies though so in that sense ASML, TSMC, and EssilorLuxottica are relatively safe bets.

BlazinHotNachoCheese

Trump's comments regarding Taiwan and China hurt tech, which is comprised of a hell of a lot of the top leaders in SPY. Trump also says whatever the audience that he's standing in front of may want his to say. Thus as soon as Jensen Huang, TSMC, and ASML whips out a big check at a fundraiser for Trump, then SPY will swing the other way.

ProReActive

Rdw dipped but is still up on the month. will but back in early next week. ASML looks like it might drop a bit before I jump in. AMD and TSMC look like a nice opportunity.

Sephass

I finally bought myself some ASML after the dip. I think it will easily rebound with +10% and back to previous state in 1-2 months

bhutams

Yes I’m talking specifically about ASML and chips.

Worried_Quarter469

Market didn’t drop on trade restrictions, that was only about ASML chipmaking equipment not finished products https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-considering-tougher-trade-rules-chip-crackdown-china-bloomberg-news-reports-2024-07-17/ People here weren’t able to understand the difference in the restrictions from the prior chip restrictions

Pojihut

i actually blame Burberry for catalysing all this, their China numbers tanked the luxury stocks with a knock-on effect everywhere else, ASML performed the coup de grace

elgrandorado

This seems like a healthy pullback. Some of my most concentrated holdings (ASML, SPGI, GOOG) were starting to seem a bit overvalued. I do think the pullback was caused by macro fears, but all we can do as stock investors is look towards where the future is going and not focus on the short term.

Big_Fix9049

I'll wait for more correction. My watchlist: AMZN, $175 and $165 AMAT, $200 CMG, $52 META, $425 MSFT, $400 ELV, $490 ASML, $850

benj760486

Idk why every time I see ASML my brain thinks ass to mouth 

Few_Pudding4476

after all, why shouldn’t I full port ASML at these prices?

elgrandorado

My buy point for ASML as things stand is $850. Other stocks I'm really looking at are V, CELH, and AMAT. I've also got DHI in the portfolio, but it's not a long term hold. The thesis is still playing out and the multiple needs to expand, but I'm happy to wait unless some very high quality stock goes on sale.

21_Points

Are you guys considering any buy-low stock purchases today? I’m playing around with the idea of purchasing $ASML, which is down about 18% over the last week due to this whole semiconductor/chip frenzy that is ongoing. I like the company and their most is huge so I see now as buying opportunity potentially, but I have no clue how low it will go and I also have no idea how long a rebound in stock price may take or how these geopolitical forces can impact it, especially if Trump wins the election given how erratic he can be I what he says that moves markets. Anyways, I’m just monitoring it for now, **but I’m interested in hearing what you guys have on your watch lists as potential buy-low stocks**

21_Points

Are you guys considering any buy-low stock purchases today? I’m playing around with the idea of purchasing $ASML, which is down about 18% over the last week due to this whole semiconductor/chip frenzy that is ongoing. I like the company and their most is huge so I see now as buying opportunity potentially, but I have no clue how low it will go and I also have no idea how long a rebound in stock price may take or how these geopolitical forces can impact it, especially if Trump wins the election given how erratic he can be I what he says that moves markets. Anyways, I’m just monitoring it for now, **but I’m interested in hearing what you guys have on your watch lists as potential buy-low stocks**

21_Points

Are you guys considering any buy-low stock purchases today? I’m playing around with the idea of purchasing $ASML, which is down about 18% over the last week due to this whole semiconductor/chip frenzy that is ongoing. I like the company and their most is huge so I see now as buying opportunity potentially, but I have no clue how low it will go and I also have no idea how long a rebound in stock price may take or how these geopolitical forces can impact it, especially if Trump wins the election given how erratic he can be I what he says that moves markets. Anyways, I’m just monitoring it for now, **but I’m interested in hearing what you guys have on your watch lists as potential buy-low stocks**

davidbigham

ASML went from 1067 to now 898 this week. 

Miccolus

ASML 800 next week

davidbigham

Lost 5K on ASML and 2K on TSM this week I love Mango 🥭🥭

Cruian

>Technology appears to be the future, and Tech is centered in the USA for the most part. Even if something is the future, it doesn't necessarily bring the best market returns. Small cap value has been one of the best market segments for long term investing, but that's not where you'll find most tech companies. International isn't exactly missing out on tech either, ASML and TMSC for 2 big examples.

davidbigham

Need ASML to hit 950 today, otherwise I will become a long term investor 

MrZwink

The machines also have a self destruct button, that ASML can activate from a distance. Rendering the machines useless.

Feeling_Efficiency93

ASML crashed so fucking hard, I'm glad I deleveraged. I'll take a few hundred loss over the tenthousands it would've been

surmoiFire

MTG bought ASML and CRWD not too long ago 😂 I will put on the rest of her buys: COST, LULU, NSRGY, NEE

Gasdoc1990

Not quite fitting your criteria, but: Chip War by Chris Miller. It teaches you about semiconductors and the geopolitical tensions involved with USA trying to maintain technological supremacy, China/Taiwan tensions etc. I think it has good implications for stocks because of how valuable chips are. Just look at nvidia, TSM, ASML etc. You’ll know way more about those companies and more importantly the chip industry than 99% of redditors.

advan24r

The stick and shovels of the AI revolution: "ASML", "NVDA", "ARM" Other notable lows to buy into for the long haul: AVGO, CRM CRWD, PANW is good, w/AI being more prevalent, we do need cyber security.

OmegaMordred

Trump is an idiot. If that happens this stock will be the least of your worries! The impact on global economy will be devastating, it all starts with ASML and TSMC. ALL other tech stocks just follow these. You got Samsung which is decent and you got Glofo (which for stupid reason is up ) that lacks the high end nodes totally. It's not because Glofo spits out a bicycle and it rides that TSMC car owners will suddenly start cycling. It's all very stupid and markets take the opportunity to squeeze everyones pockets. Trump was and always will be a true disaster for the markets, economy and deficit. Believe what you want but don't follow a sellfish cultleader who praises dictators.

WinningWatchlist

I avoid INTC (as a long-term investment) as a general rule- look at the performance of literally any semi-company, (ASML, AMD, NVDA, LAM, SMCI, etc) and look at INTC- it's just not there for me.

Miccolus

ASML? Is it tech, or the things where people on youtube whisper in your ears? 

Dangerous_Champion19

Nothing stopping them buying latest na EUV from ASML if they can afford to purchase. Big question is does their MGMT have any interest going into sub 7nm.market.

Miccolus

ASML royally fucked me twice in a row

unpeelingpeelable

The fundamentals are that ASML is the ONLY company making the chip printers, the chip printer companies themselves are fully booked years out and frantically building even more capacity. Certain companies are doing the bulk of the chip printing; and the chip designers they print for have already written off certain forbidden markets. It's just FOMO fam, buy the dip.

elgrandorado

As someone who owns Google for exposure to their Search/YouTube/Google Cloud businesses, and someone who owns ASML for exposure to the semi industry, what will AI bring with incremental revenue? How much do you really think AI can generate in cost reduction? Of course AI isn't done, because technology doesn't just stop progressing, but what will be the future impact on cash flows and revenue from it? I've yet to really see it.

Scalar_Mikeman

Exactly what I've come to expect from all you regards. TSMC up 50% past 6 months. Down 2% today. Nvidia up 110% past 6 months. Actually up 1-2% today. ASML stock up 25% past 6 months. Down .66% today. THEY'RE GETTING HAMMERED!!!!

Weak_Low_8193

Looking for some feedback: ASML 10% ANET 10% Amazon 8% Apple 8% NVDA 8% UBER 7% Pinterest 7% Qualcomm 6% AMD 6% Intel 6% Pfizer 4% Palatir 4% DOLE 4% Microsoft 2% Alphabet 2% TSM 2% Netflix 2% Waste Management 2% Regeneron 2%

standard-and-boars

how rude of past me to sell my TSM and ASML puts at open :(

Zestyclose_Bread2311

It's a certain candidate said TSM is basically fucked and the island they are on won't get defended from invasion if they were elected. That + ASML missed earnings. All the companies relying on chips are getting their pants pulled down and run through a forest of broom handles backwards.

Cool_Support

But ASML and MU didn't raise their guidance

dabay7788

I told ppl here thats whats gonna happen, same happened with MU and ASML

intiia1

A Trump interview held on June 25 lambasting Taiwan and semi market share just happened to be released 3 weeks later, on the day of ASML earnings and a day before TSM ER The timing is a bit sus.

falken2023

So here’s an idea for the Mango man since he’s so fond of lawsuits. Class action lawsuit: Semiconductor companies/investors of Earth vs. Donald J Trump. Seeking damages in the amount of 500 Billion dollars. Plaintiffs could include Nvidia, TSM, ASML, every other semi stock company and the likes of every single investor in the chip industry. Simply by opening his mouth caused severe monetary damages and psychological distress to millions, perhaps billions of people. He’s not President yet. So don’t even try that immunity bullshit. He literally cost the world 500 billion dollars in one day. Call me crazy but I think there’s something there that could be prosecuted.

thalamisa

I bought ASML yesterday as it dropped 10%.

Samjabr

I tried explaining this to noobs today. They still think market went down because of Trump comments, even though they were old and ASML and Japanese stocks opened the day green and didn't tank until Biden report leaked. But everyone here hates mango man, so I was basically ice-skating uphill /shrug

ilovethewayyousmile

In hindsight, it’s so obvious ASML = EU tech company, prolly like 3 hour lunch breaks, summer off = shit earnings  TSM = Asian tech company, long hours, lax labor laws, sigma grindset = great earnings 

WorkingCorrect1062

ASML was fake news, TSM was the real semi

romt_25

Friendship ended with ASML.  TSMC my new best friend. 

heyheymustbethemoney

ASML machines are built with components built by companies in the United States. And those components will be restricted to ASML if they do not comply. Those components also do not exist elsewhere.

heyheymustbethemoney

ASML already can’t keep up with demand. Their machines will be bought.