ASML

youstillhavehope

I think it may be too early for reusable heavy lift. Guessing here, but the math seems to depend on multi-decade trips to build a lunar habitat, mine the moon, carry on from there, etc. It is a great idea IMO but the US gov would have to fun it and at its current debt load, and anti-tax stance, that funding will not happen. I am speaking broadly here but the alt idea, manufacturing in space is also worth exploring but that economic surface will be subject to intense, undgodly intense, demands to lower lift costs by reducing payload weight, meaning those operations will be light, fast, deployable by all the current med-weight operators. It is the corollary to the insane demand for nanoscale processors TSMC / ASML face. So, RN, no, not a game changer.

No-Competition-6694

Where is ASML in this list?

gmennert

ASML begs to differ

PhotonicsIsFried

Why are we talking about a europoor company? I thought they only had ASML

Beginning-Fig-9089

ASML

blorg

I would never recommend going all-in on ex-US and dumping all US holdings. That's a strawman. The core argument for diversification is holding both. Even at global market-cap weights, you're still ~60% US, even the base case here you're more in US equities than not. I prefer VT for simplicity, but it's completely fine to choose an intentional home-bias (like 70/30 or 80/20 US). What doesn't hold up is using macro narratives to justify a 100% US allocation. This is all **Priced In**. >There aren't any tailwinds in a huge # of Ex-US countries. Market returns aren't driven by absolute economic growth or good headlines; they are driven by performance relative to expectations. Everything you listed, China's political risk, Japan's demographics, European stagnation, or the UK's GDP per capita, is common knowledge. Because it's common knowledge, it's already priced in. That's why ex-US equities trade at a massive valuation discount compared to the US. For US stocks to continue outperforming, US corporate earnings don't just need to be good, they need to consistently exceed the extremely aggressive growth expectations already baked into today's sky-high valuations. For cheap international stocks to outperform, they just need to turn out *slightly less terrible* than the dismal scenario the market has already priced in. Research has actually shown there is a [zero or slightly negative correlation between per-capita GDP growth and real stock returns.](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X05000338) [[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oddly-stock-market-returns-gdp-203439790.html) You're simply looking at the wrong thing here. *It's not what you buy, it's what you pay that counts. Good investing doesn't come from buying good things, but from buying things well.* - Howard Marks >I'll start buying as soon as Ex-US companies become household recognizable names. Waiting for companies to become household names before buying is literally a strategy for buying at the top. The entire point of value/international diversification is buying productive assets before the market prices them higher. Beyond that, ex-US companies are already household names: Nestle, Toyota, Samsung, Novo Nordisk, LVMH, Sony, Unilever, Shell, and ASML and TSMC (who are responsible for producing the chips inside the American tech everyone is bullish on). The US is the strongest market in the world today, but betting 100% of your portfolio on the assumption that current US valuation multiples will expand indefinitely, and that no other market will ever experience a multi-decade cycle again, seems wrong to me. It can't do this forever: indefinite relative outperformance is mathematically impossible unless you believe US equities will eventually account for 100% of global market cap and total global GDP. You are right though that we don't know when it might change. Hence why I just buy both and don't try to time it.

blorg

I would never recommend going all-in on ex-US and dumping all US holdings. That's a strawman. The core argument for diversification is holding both. Even at global market-cap weights, you're still ~60% US, even the base case here you're more in US equities than not. I prefer VT for simplicity, but it's completely fine to choose an intentional home-bias (like 70/30 or 80/20 US). What doesn't hold up is using macro narratives to justify a 100% US allocation. >There aren't any tailwinds in a huge # of Ex-US countries. Market returns aren't driven by absolute economic growth or good headlines; they are driven by performance relative to expectations. Everything you listed, China's political risk, Japan's demographics, European stagnation, or the UK's GDP per capita, is common knowledge. Because it's common knowledge, it's already priced in. That's why ex-US equities trade at a massive valuation discount compared to the US. For US stocks to continue outperforming, US corporate earnings don't just need to be good, they need to constantly exceed the extremely aggressive growth expectations already baked into today's sky-high valuations. For cheap international stocks to outperform, they just need to turn out *slightly less terrible* than the dismal scenario the market has already priced in. Research has actually shown there is a [zero or slightly negative correlation between per-capita GDP growth and real stock returns.](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X05000338) [[2]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oddly-stock-market-returns-gdp-203439790.html) >I'll start buying as soon as Ex-US companies become household recognizable names. Waiting for companies to become household names before buying is literally a strategy for buying at the top. The entire point of value/international diversification is buying productive assets before the market prices them higher. Beyond that, ex-US companies are already household names: Nestle, Toyota, Samsung, Novo Nordisk, LVMH, Sony, Unilever, Shell, and ASML and TSMC (who are responsible for producing the chips inside the American tech everyone is bullish on). The US is the strongest market in the world today, but betting 100% of your portfolio on the assumption that current US valuation multiples will expand indefinitely, and that no other market will ever experience a multi-decade cycle again, seems wrong to me. It can't do this forever: indefinite relative outperformance is mathematically impossible unless you believe US equities will eventually account for 100% of global market cap and total global GDP. You are right though that we don't know when it might change. Hence why I just buy both and don't try to time it.

Rand-Seagull96734

You have to *buy and hold* at least two out of the big hyperscalers - GOOG, AMZN, MSFT - because you don't know which one is going to get leadership and materially grow their Operating Cash Flow. I own GOOG and AMZN. Then you have to have the equipment and fabs behind all the (AI) chips. I have ASML (cutting edge equipment) and TSMC (cutting edge fab). They win regardless of which chip companies win. Then you gotta own NVDA (incumbent chip). I also have QCOM because they will benefit from all Android smartphones getting AI enabled with on-device inference. Finally, you have to own whoever owns the smartphone consumer channel because of the upgrade AI will cause. AAPL is the obvious choice. AI models are going to get conmoditized because of the Chinese open source options, but I already have GOOG/Gemini and will buy Anthropic when it IPOs. Everybody else including OpenAI, Grok, Meta, etc are not likely to make it commercially because they don't control the smartphone channel. You have to watch for how (cyber)security software layers evolve as AI agents do most of the work, including bad actors threatening enterprises with agent swarms (kinda like drone swarms). I have tip toed into RBRK and S because they are doing AI informed cyber security from the ground up while the incumbents are either consolidating and/or grafting AI capability into legacy platforms. I don't have a strong conviction here, but this is an area to learn and invest. All this is just a thesis so we shall see, but it is not momentum trading like OP is doing.

Zef-Daytrade

no, cost savings in training is NOT the same as cost savings in operation. The training with frontier models does not save in the operation side... no amount of using of frontier models will save in compute requirements. Give credit to the programmers man. SMCI don't blame china for that. Thats purely the excs fault for doing something illegal. China has an order out on the market, waiting to be filled, its the trade specialists that know what to fill or not. The execs KNEW they are doing it illegally, . This is a trade specialists (ie import/export/sourcing/trade manager) job to know the rules and they get paid handsomely for it 100k-200k is common and 300k and above is not unhead of. ASML China stealing IP because hiring the employee they fired? Really? It is also the same for virtually all the employees fired in the lasts 4 years with the China/Chinese crackdown in the USA.... across the board yet no one is claiming IP theft in those fields due to hiring but only tech.

Samjabr

True. I was in and out of ASTS back in the $20s. I am not smart enough to know how far ahead their phased array tech is versus competing tech. If it is as amazing as promised, they will definitely be successful. But tech these days is so easy to copy - Just look at the Chinese AI companies. Moats will become more relevant, so companies like ASML, TSMC, etc. are the ones that will be hard to knock off their perch. And it's hard to think of anything harder than just starting up your own satellite launch company.

Glad_Block_7220

The US companies monetarely incentivate the best stundents to migrate to West Coast tech companies, that's a fact. In reality, China is slightly behind because chinese hardware (advanced chips) is inferior to what is produced in TSMC (Nvidia, AMD, Grok, etc.) and that's because advanced EUV litography is among the few core technologies that the west is still far ahead. The chinese cannot buy the most advanced chips (made with EUV) because the US forbade Nvidia to sell them, they cannot buy the machines necessary to make the chips because the US forbade the Netherlands (ASML) to sell them, therefore they make inferior chips with what technology they currently have (DUV) while they create their own EUV machines. The result is that chinese researchers had to invent more "eficient" models in order to achieve parity with US ones, whom have access to more raw computing power for both training and running. The fact they are anywhere close (sometimes even surpassing in some metrics) to these frontier models is quite a clear meassure of their proficieny in this field and that they have some serious talent pool.

Etherius

We’re past the point of “will this be profitable?” We’re currently at the point of “who is going to be able to profit the most?” The answer seems to be “Amazon, Google, and ASML”

1098duc_w_the_termi

ASML is an equipment manufacturer and the only one of actual importance in any of the ones listed

DipSniper69

Ever heard of ASML and BE semiconductors. LMFAO

ViggVarse

ASML made me lot of money, but they are china sensitive

ViggVarse

ASML is european too

Etherius

ASML is ramping up capex like fuckin insane-o-style Who knows whether they can do it fast enough to help MU et al

jonsnowick

Actually USA controls ASML, esp which clients to serve. Coz they control a critical component of the ASML machines. Unless ASML becomes totally independent , its riskier than Mu, Samsung

BriackYOLO

MU and Samsung own the actual memory monopoly, ASML owns the machines to make them. Pick your poison, or just buy calls and join the casino

No_Current3675

loaded the truck wit ASML KLAC LRCX during last week's dip. Added a bit of sandick too.

liuqiu_rangers

Chipmaking cannot be solved by money. Solving things like raising yields takes an enormous amount of time and collaboration with equipment makers. I'm sure China will *eventually* figure it out but it'll be a decadeslong effort. China originally had this plan in 2015 called Made in China 2025 that was supposed to have 70% of the chips China consumers domestically produced by 2025 but it miserably failed because they realized this shit is a million times harder than EVs or batteries especially when your access to the finest chipmaking equipment is blocked. The EUV machines that ASML developed? It's the most complex thing ever built by humans and took decades of research and collaboration. Even today it's not purely a Dutch produce because key components have to be produced in Germany and the US.

jonneh

Who knows for certain but there was a story a month ago about Lutnick telling ASML he thinks China have components of EUV

RCT_Crazy

As a Eurocuck I want to yell at you but you're right, whole market is basically always keeping their eyes peeled on ASML

Remote-Ranger-7721

ASML is genuinely our only bargaining chip in staying close with the US during the AI race :(

1098duc_w_the_termi

EuroPEONS need to be cut off from our markets. Their single AI play is ASML, they don’t deserve to influence our bubble

CivilizedSteve

I agree with that. I did trim and move a bit to the spenders but I'm pretty locked in on the capex spending theme... on the supply side, TSM, ASML, AVGO, memory... Leos's fund thing is a crazy story and there was also a lot of volatility trading. So yah the semi trade is far from being done. Spending is still increasing!!

CivilizedSteve

Ok so still the supplier side. I'm in semis too. TSM, ASML, AVGO, etc. Volatile. Crowded. Was just thinking about what is AI actually good at. There's a lot of magic thinking about AI but it's very good at processing information. That got me thinking about businesses where that could lead to strong upside.

No_Current3675

Went balls deep ASML KLAC LRCX last Tue & Wed. And bought more sanddick. Sold RDDT 180 bought back under 140. 

CoconutAmbitious2580

That seems solid to me but I am an optimistic bull in this bearish market. Thanks for sharing. I'm selling puts on many of the downtrodden tech and memory stocks this week... Fat premium on most. It could blow up in my face though with those damn Chinese pilfering the tech from ASML recently.

icydragon_12

Micron is my favorite name at the moment, but it's not for the faint of heart. high vol, high risk. Currently, the stock is pricing in a >70% crash to memory prices. That could happen, and historically has happened. But after I looked into the capex plans of memory makers, the schedule of wafer additions, I bet it doesn't happen for at least another year if not 2-3. Moreover, HBM prices/volume is being locked. My base case is that memory prices fall by 40-50% sometime after 2027 and even then MU is worth 1500-2k. TSM looks attractive to me as well and I recently bought, but obv if ASML increases their prices that will be at least marginally negative to all the companies buying their equipment.

Kooky-Address-4598

2. how exactly? the hyperscalers guided higher capex for 2027 also why would your thesis play out just for the memory stocks and not other semis (TSM/ASML/AMAT/AVGO/etc.) ?

ThanklessWaterHeater

Every chip maker is frantically building out new capacity. Seems fairly obvious to me that the companies making the lithography equipment they will need to do that are going to be busier than ever, their products perhaps even constrained, for the next few years. ASML, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC.

GoldParticular3093

Do you think it's gonna infinitely go up in a straight line? ASML is very clearly cyclical you can see that in their graph. Besides, are you gonna DCA or lump sum, because if you're gonna DCA you can start now it wont matter, but if you're gonna throw all your money at once, you need a very good price, that's just the way it is I'd wait for the current macro events to unfold. Remember, being patient and "missing out" on gains is still better than losing money on FOMO

Pure_Evidence638

O have heard the same on Reddit when ASML was at $600 LOL

cageslutjoanna

I bought UNH after the drop not because i liked the stock but because I really like how they treat their customers. (I'm not american) Jokes aside, whenever these systemically-important, cash-rich dividend-monster quasi-monopolies have a huge drop, like COST / UNH / ASML recently did, it's a signal to buy the dip. They will always bounce back long term - if they don't, it's because something has fundamentally changed about how the economy they operate in. V and MA have nowhere else to go, they have no organic growth left - credit is becoming more expensive as we are in a cycle of rate increases. Fundamentally - any lending company will have decreased profits when rates increase. When rates increase, consumers spend less because they have to spend more on their mortgage. It costs the lender more to borrow money, and people watch out more for fees. Payments companies thrive in rate cutting environments because people can see that their money is better spent now than later. So if you're buying them you are expecting them to either find a way to nickle and dime customers more, or you are betting on them finding a way to increase their offerings via integration with stablecoins. Some of the smaller payments companies have a long way to grow. If you're in V/MA it's because youve been in them a long time and like your tasty dividends.

HystericalSail

CXMT ranks fourth in global market share, in Q4 2025 already had 7.67% of the market. 31% of Micron's revenue. And that's just the tail end of the DRAM shortage. I wouldn't bet that the Chinese won't have EUV and DUV machines 90% as good as ASML for 10% the price in the next few years. They don't give much of a crap about patents, and have the best manufacturing logistics and infrastructure in the world.

steady_compounder

I would be careful selling a broad index fund to swap into two individual semiconductor names unless this is a small high-conviction satellite bet. ASML and TSM are both great businesses, but that move is still a big jump in concentration and cycle risk. Usually the better question is whether you want core exposure or a deliberate tilt, not whether two stocks can replace the index.

icydragon_12

I'm a professional analyst and just built out models on these for my PA. TSM legitimately seems undervalued to me after this exercise. I modelled out their their production and costs by node. I put in fairly conservative assumptions, and expect about 40% upside in one year. ASML appears to be trading almost exactly at fair value at the moment. I'd expect them to move sideways unless they raise their prices. Which... honestly I don't understand why they don't do this. They're a damn monopoly.

CivilizedSteve

Nice. TSM and ASML IMO are two of the more durable supply AI-related buildout stocks. I own them both.

Ok-Chapter8930

I can tell you how i did 600%. 3 years aga I had a conviction that an irrational AI bubble would happen because the fundamentals were strong enough. I only invest in European stocks, so I look for bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain. After doubling my money on ASML, I wanted more. I found this small cap french company called Soitec, great company and product, beaten down stock. It was at a 10 year low, I figured whatever happens it could not get lower anyway. Bought at almost the bottom and waited for the AI craze to catch on... It did. this method only works every 20 years in tech, you just have to be early and have conviction when others don't. When I tried ChatGPT 3.5 and had my mind blown, I just new the bubble was coming. I will probably never be able to repeat  This in my life.

CoachDennisGreen

I was so proud of myself that I was able to keep holding my AI names (AMAT, SMH, ASML, BE). I fought the urge to sell every day of the pullback. But we may not be out of trouble just yet. We’ll see.

No_Current3675

ASML still a value IMO

No_Current3675

KLAC ASML LRCX AVGO NVDA still good buys.

KnownButton8327

I disagree because even if we believe your sentiment that it’s hard to make AI profitable for a lot of smaller companies, there is no stopping the AI arms race between China and the USA. It’s geopolitical now and the genie can’t be put back in the bottle. Not to mention other countries who are in line for sovereign AI build outs. So I guess it depends what end you’re betting on, but the core of NVDA, TSM, ASML, American energy companies, data center cooling, and high speed networking, etc is going to make bank by real TAM expansion

No_Current3675

pretty sane IMO to have bought this semis dip. I went balls deep in KLAC ASML LRCX on Tue & Wed. Bought more SNDK too, some GLW after earnings, can't even remember what else. Been buying MSFT under 400 because you gotta be fucken insane not to.

fo8oo

I still remember how in 2024 ASML ceo said that China is 15 years behind. I guess 15 years went by in 2 years?

No_Current3675

fuk it bruh might pick up more ASML on open. Still on discount.

Icy_Pay7280

Here's the thing, when China comes out with a fully functional EUV machine in 5 years the media will say, oh EUV is already known technology, the west did all the hard work to pave the path and the parts and principles of how they work were all publically available knowledge (which is true). Then people who just watched a few veritasium videos and think they understand the semiconductor industry will realize it's overblown how difficult EUV is to achieve once the supply chains and institutional knowledge is built up. What China has proved with this domestic DUV mass production (if the news is actually real, still a chance it's fake news btw), is they have matured a domestic supply chain and strong institutions with a vast talent pipeline. No one who seriously works in the industry thinks china can't achieve EUV given the pressure put on them, that's why I'm not touching ASML stock with a 10 foot pole.

coolkavo

Yes. Overreaction indeed. People and institutions can’t get it out of their head that DUV does not equal to EUV. Social media makes it out that China is leapfrogging ASML…

No_Current3675

KLAC ASML LRCX amazing values

IBUYVOTES

Tomorrow? Going bargain hunting in semiconductors. There is value there if you look for it. AVGO is hanging out at 23x NTM, NVDA is 19x, ASML is \~28x, TSM is \~17x. Very attractive entry for some very strong moats.

CUbuffGuy

Lots of tech names in the portfolio getting hammered. AMAT, ASML, SOXX is a big holding. Then there were some high beta names I sold earlier the month but still took a hit on, APLD, RCAT, OUST to name a few

i_am_not_your_puppet

thesis Hyperscalers every hyperscaler in their earnings reports say they are capacity constrained GOOGLE, MSFT, we will see for AMZN in a few days Anthropic Anthropic is begging META for compute to rent, has already signed deal for capex capacity with SPCX OpenAi Codex subs went up to 10 million (3x what they were just a few months ago). They are allegedly training larger modles. Larger models need more capex and memory to support. SpaceX ngmi META probably ngmi and end up a cloud company China China is bulding out it's own capacity, it's chips are years behind, its wannabe ASML is estimated to be 5 years behind; and Moonshot, etc are buying all of their own production. They aren't producing excess supply. Remember K3 kimi ? it lasted about two days and had to stop signing up clients because of capacity constraints. China is far behind it's capex buiild and looking to catch up. by 2030 there is a chance that we will be seeing up to a trillion spend on capex per year none of the TSMC, ASML, Sk Hynix, Meta, MSFT, earnings reported changed any of this. A stock price dropping literally does not change any of the above. My thesis holds strong. This is why I'm bullish on MU.

BurnBabyBurrrn

Chinese companies aren't new to the game man, it's just now people are hearing about them. Their memory sucks for the price it sells at. Their ASML killer is nothing but a PR stunt (see Deepseek replacing NVDA months ago). China aint shxt you're just gullible. It's just Market manipulators taking shares from retail.

ihopethisworksfornow

Gonna just give this the ol’ repost in light of the past hour or so of news Predictions: 1.) Quarter point raise at the next meeting. 2.) Mango talks shit about Warsh before September is over. 3.) Iran war continues indefinitely. 4.) Tech earnings disappoint 5.) Steady bear market through the middle of next year 6.) Lame duck congress after mid-terms (technically good for the markets?) 7.) Huge disruption to tech from China. ASML loses 50% value. U.S. frontier labs start to fall behind open source Chinese models 8.) Aliens obliterate the city of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. They leave with no explanation. 9.) China doesn’t invade Taiwan but institutes a blockade of their ports for “National Security”. China cites U.S. blockades of Iran and Cuba as similar actions. Calls US a hypocrite. Tensions rise. 10.) Elon Musk fatally overdoses on Ketamine at a child’s birthday party. 11.) U.S. personal debt reaches crisis levels and cascading defaults wreck the economy. 12.) Complete economic collapse 13.) People get really into Hackey Sack for a summer, once again. 14.) Widow’s Bay Season 2 will be good but won’t be quite as well received as the first season 15.) Mitch McConnell does not die 16.) Microsoft prints eventually

ihopethisworksfornow

Predictions: 1.) Quarter point raise at the next meeting. 2.) Mango talks shit about Warsh before September is over. 3.) Iran war continues indefinitely. 4.) Tech earnings disappoint 5.) Steady bear market through the middle of next year 6.) Lame duck congress after mid-terms (technically good for the markets?) 7.) Huge disruption to tech from China. ASML loses 50% value. U.S. frontier labs start to fall behind open source Chinese models 8.) Aliens obliterate the city of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. They leave with no explanation. 9.) China doesn’t invade Taiwan but institutes a blockade of their ports for “National Security”. China cites U.S. blockades of Iran and Cuba as similar actions. Calls US a hypocrite. Tensions rise. 10.) Elon Musk fatally overdoses on Ketamine at a child’s birthday party. 11.) U.S. personal debt reaches crisis levels and cascading defaults wreck the economy. 12.) Complete economic collapse 13.) People get really into Hackey Sack for a summer, once again. 14.) Widow’s Bay Season 2 will be good but won’t be quite as well received as the first season 15.) Mitch McConnell does *not* die 16.) Microsoft prints eventually

Icy-Regular-4557

“One company supplied” CXMT challenges that case. Only racists and rubes don’t think they’ll eventually catch up with ASML.  “their inventory purchased”  For planned data centers that might not get built. Half of all data center projects in 2025 got cancelled. Why is that? So what happens to all this inventory?  “companies are committing” Yeah Alphabet looks especially stupid after announcing that, getting dumped on, and then next week seeing the AI trade start to unravel. We’ll see if Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon follow like lemmings or which one of them decides to run for the door first. If they all keep committing capex, even that isn’t a guarantee the economy stays hospitable to those efforts. Now imagine all the hyperscalers *in this environment* truly continue capex. They do so using liquidity, which is not and never has been unlimited (though often in history there arises the notion it is, and that’s the moment before the market corrects them). Liquidity is already being pressured by much bigger world forces— the sovereigns, the world’s countries. Oil blockade? Liquidity crunch. Japan Yen Carry unwind? Liquidity crunch. KOSPI crash? Liquidity crunch. This edges towards a scarier phrase, a credit crunch. Creditors hunt after debtors (Peters) because everybody needs to pay their own Paul.  So you may assume that the hyperscalers will make a choice like that, to jump in at a time like this, push all their cash that way. Maybe they can prop things up for a few days, or maybe even a few weeks. But don’t think that they’re the world’s big powers and can hold up the world themselves. Demand will crash, because finance will crash. Because overproduction is an inherent tendency of this economy, especially by monopolies (each crash mentioned in my previous comment featured monopolies and overproduction…and dumbasses talking about how “everything is fine, this time is different.”)

_Sunshine_17

I don’t see any logic behind this. I see Wall Street finance gurus talking on TV mumbo jumbo about AI but being unable to tell the difference between a CPU and a GPU. The technological innovations that led to the AI revolution are immensely complicated. For example it took ASML 20 years of hardcore quantum physics research to be able to manipulate matter at an the scale of a few atoms and produce the EUV lithography. China is not going to replace that in a few months. In the long run I believe it’s all going to be about how effectively these companies are going to integrate AI into their workflow. A professional illustrator needs vectors to work with and the future would possibly be a copilot analogue for dealing with these vectors. I myself work in scientific HPC and AI has changed the landscape in my field a lot.

Anonymous_Lurker_1

Profit taking, the war, concerns over "AI bubbles".... also, China have now announced their version of ASML's DUV machines. However, these DUV machines are not little bits of kit. They're the size of a bus. China are planning on building 5. Next year they're building 20... ASML build 130. These arent production line machines, theyre ultra precise, expertly built. This has happened before when Huawei announced their new chips within their smartphones. Initial panic lasted 2 months. Once earnings were revealed and it came out that 50%> of the chips were binned, the market recovered. Im anticipating a santa-rally.

No_Current3675

Picked up some ASML at 1540. May put in another order for 1500.

Main_Ad3943

Using TWS, can't see them on any platform though. Not sure if it's because I just enabled permissions for them or what. I can see SSF's for ASML though so, not sure. If you can see them maybe I just need to wait

CUbuffGuy

The more notable thing is that they are a post-fab provider. Which means they basically sell things for fabs already made at the non-cutting edge level (old stuff). They only work with the bigger chips. This is big because the biggest fear right now is China making their own shitty chips, which slashes the demand for 12+nm chips. It effects places like klac and gfs the most because they don’t have any other revenue lines for the newer chips China can’t make. The fact it’s popping means the riskiest and most direct threat vector is seeing green, which bodes very well for more specialized vendors like AMAT, ASML, etc, who actually make the newer chips too.

Icy_Pay7280

YOU have no idea what you're talking about. They absolutely manufacture most of the parts domestically, no other country is close to being able to do this, not even ASML itself, DUV is a miracle in of itself, the hardest part of EUV is literally the light source and precision mirrors, both of which China could crack in the next few years, everything else is quite trivial to overcome, it's not like the technology and methodology is unknown, EUV is not something miraculously more difficult than DUV.

reality_hijacker

It's not about beating ASML, it's about being able to domestically produce without reliance on ASML.

Late-Photograph-1954

You exiting ASML, Korean DRAM, Chinese AI?

Jerikolol

is it too soon for ASML? they had 20% of their revenue from china selling well their cheaper DUV. Idk if the markets priced losing that out already/analyst downgrades. Like in 2-3 years, for sure, ASML wont be doing 20% in china anymore, not with new competition

A55BAG

Decent entry for European semi tools ASML, ASM, BESI, AIXA is being offered

notintelligentidiot

Why do you goofy goobers talk so confidently about things you obviously know little about? China does not build DUV machines “entirely on their own”, quick research shows they rely on specialized subcomponents precision motion controls, and high-grade materials imported from mostly from Japan… which are kind of, you know, critical when producing chips, especially the precision motion control part. DUV, while a cool technology, is vastly less marvelous an engineering feat than EUV lithography is and the science a lot less complicated (in relative terms, of course). ASML sold its first DUV machine 1998 with far less sophisticated technology than what China is working with today. Its DUV machines also still lag behind in scale and performance. I don’t think people like yourself understand how big a jump EUV is from DUV. It took ASML 12 years to jump from DUV to EUV, and that’s with decades of EUV tech know how from America’s national laboratory. To get to EUV, China not only has to do all of the research that took America & Co. decades, but also manage to achieve all of the engineering feats of an extremely complicated global web of specialized suppliers. EUV tech is not vehicle assembly. You can’t will your way into producing EUV tech.

notintelligentidiot

You don’t know what you’re talking about, you’re so out of your depth and it’s annoying how many of you retards exist on this website. China did not achieve a “EUV prototype years ago”, they created a machine just last year that produced EUV light. That’s literally it But creating actual chips goes far beyond just EUV light, in case you did not know. EUV machines contain 100,000 components from 5,000 different companies around the world, all of which specialize in very specific things. The US/West control the vast majority of these firms and China would have to replicate it all or most of it internally to achieve EUV lithography done by ASML. This is not something that China can will its way into, like vehicle manufacturing. This is frontier shit that China will have to work its way into by funding decades of physics research that American labs started 5 decades ago. While China is working on matching current ASML/Western capabilities, western firms will already be years ahead still because it’s not like ASML isn’t investing billions of its own dollars into research as well as America’s national labs (which were the zenith of EUV tech)

vandalizethethief

No comment on MRVL except great company with ASIC chips. They make their chips out of old running shoes hence the term ASIC. Good business to great but Jensen bubbled it. I would avoid all semis and any AI related play from CAT to Corning to Lumentum to ASML until a bottom is formed. You don’t have to be the hero who bottom ticks a dead cat bounce in semis.

No_Current3675

KLAC LRCX ASML my top 3.

Actual_Difference617

52w high for ASML is $1999.96 lol. Whoever had the limit sell at $2000 might have to wait some time.

IBUYVOTES

The drawdown on ASML looks like a good entry on one of the best moats around.

FormalBee3802

Congrats to china on making its own DUV they are almost 10 years behind ASML 🎉

3brcuse

i was bearish MU/ASML/TSMC/GOOGL/INTC earnings beat or lose based on positioning. same pov is much better now for SKHY

SpiderWil

By the time the Chinese is ready, the AI war is already won by the West. By assuming the Chinese can produce the same quality and quantity of memory made by ASML equipment is the same thing that saying the only ASML maker in the world will go bankrupt in 3-4 years. what a thesis.

playstationjeans

Their machine is nearly twice the size of one ASML machine 😂😂😂 Who in the fuck would ever buy the Temu Lithography machine!? Even ASML lithography machines break down and require full stop maintenance from time to time. Imagine this Tony Stark cave invention breaking down. So now we have to have a team of Chinese engineers on staff? When will the parts get there? It's a fucking nightmare. Just makes the entire AI buildout even more bullish if we're even considering using this shit.

OptionsHuduga

here we go with the "STX will make or break memory" moment and fairy tales. just like TSM and ASML saved semi's right? yeah remember that? yeah that was fun.

cupofchupachups

Jensen started 30 years ago. Thinking that China will never do this or that has proven to be false over and over. Feels like it's only a matter of time before they dethrone ASML for example. 

Ordinary_Pen_5605

Why dont you guys calm down? I am an old, old portfolio manager (starting to work in 1987 on the trading floor). So I have some experience with situations like we have had the last days. That happened to me maybe 20 or 30 times. I retired ten years ago. But still love the markets and invest. I sold my memory stocks during the last eight weeks. Mostly a few days to early, but I kept the cash until today respectively jumped on catastrophies like IBM, SAP and so on. (I will make nice money on it). Today was the day, I started to buyback Micron, SK Hynix and ASML. If I am to early, I will double the position within the next days. SK numbers coming, FED coming, Microsoft coming. A lot of less experienced investors are in panic and sold yesterday and today. Seems to be a good time to buy. By the way, I am not a bull, nor a bear. That changes usually three or four times a year. With a bit more discipline and without that stupid "all-in" chatter you can build up a nice portfolio. On the long run. Not within some weeks or months. That is about impossible. Best Regards from an Europoor, who actually isn´t that poor.

_Mido

ASML

Detonate-Ralph

Sure but they'll start competing with some of the ASML and TSMC market as a lot of things don't require state-of-the-art chips, which means less profit, which means very bad for stock

Exfortress

China’s goal is to be completely independent of ASML. ASML’s China sales will go to 0 in a few years, whether 3, 5, or 7. Market has not baked that in.

Jzeeee

It's saying, China is now only country that can produce it's own advance lithography machines without relying or depending on other countries. This is a pretty big deal. Dutch/ASML still need permission from US.

Flag_Shagger

I mean just think about the fud on memory: \- interest rate hikes (the same hike has been priced in 6 times already - wtf?) \- cxmt: valued at $500b and can’t even match mu supply, can’t compete in hbm, will not even satisfy the chinese market. how is this story derailing the memory narrative yet its the most valued company on the chinese mainland? \- open source models: just deepseek 2.0, this reignites the race & demand for semis, its bullish if anything because it improves the ROI for end users & increases adoption -> higher demand for memory \- earnings miss: fud about SK Hynix gonna miss opearnings by 8%, seriously wtf? \- chinese DUV machines: wow so they can build the same machines they’re already importing? they are bottlenecked the exact same way, nothing about the story has changed except ASML loss DUV sales.

Ordinary_Pirate9926

The U.S. already restricts or scrutinizes products in strategic industries because of national security concerns. Why would it suddenly become dependent on Chinese memory? China can’t even meet its own domestic demand for leading-edge memory. They don’t have access to EUV lithography, and they aren’t producing cutting-edge HBM at the same level as companies like SK Hynix, Micron, or Samsung. HBM is one of the most complex semiconductor products in the world. You’re manufacturing structures measured in nanometers and stacking and processing layers through hundreds of incredibly precise steps. The reason companies like SK Hynix, TSMC, ASML, and others remain so far ahead is because the global semiconductor ecosystem is built on decades of collaboration, specialized equipment, and expertise. China doesn’t have access to much of that ecosystem because of export controls and other restrictions. There’s also the security issue. Even if the technical risk of embedding malicious hardware is difficult and heavily scrutinized, no country wants to make itself dependent on critical components from a geopolitical rival when there’s even a possibility of hardware tampering or hidden vulnerabilities. Governments spend enormous resources reducing supply-chain risk for exactly that reason. The idea that the U.S. would willingly replace trusted suppliers with Chinese memory ignores both the technological reality and the national security concerns.

ryzetard

yes it is. its nothing new, china was barred from importing EUV anyway, their tech is comparable to 2006-2008 ASML tech and their production output projected to be like 4% of ASML in 2027. sure, big news, asml is dying!!!11

shaun5pais

China - ASML is nose diving the entire semis market lol

Haunting-Cow9376

Sir please read [https://www.reddit.com/r/ASML/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASML/), they let go R&D middle management, Scrum masters, PO and team architect roles. That the workers union has a strong sentiment against any layoffs is understandable but certainly not a strong argument

xbinary

Chinese companies do not need TSMC or intel to use their tools, it was to use curb export restrictions to maintain manufacturing capability. ASML have export controls where they have limited or strictly unable to service/sell their tools to chinese manufacturers. Chinese companies are also unable to sell their memory ships to US companies, or even sell their equipment to TSMC/intel.

OptionsHuduga

my ASML likes this - go on.

seemsLetschat

Funfact: They are partnering with ASML to achieve this. And the CEO studied in the US and used german patents of a bankrupt company. From first sketch to production in only three years is also very impressive.

GalwayBogger

I don't know where you get this info from. The employees staged multiple walkouts in response, all of the senior engineers in product development, known as architects, were demoted or made redundant. See [here ](https://www.fnv.nl/nieuwsbericht/sectornieuws/metaal/2026/03/fnv-kritisch-op-reorganisatie-asml) from one of the unions (dutch): > In March and April, thousands of employees mobilized. 'About three thousand colleagues participated in a walk-out at building four in their own time. That was a powerful signal: we are not a cost center.' > An ASML employee phrased it this way during the protest: 'I work here with heart and soul, but right now I mainly feel insecure and unheard.' > Peter: 'That hits exactly the core. It is not just about jobs, but about dignity and security.' The action had an effect. Internally, trust turned out to be historically low, according to research by ASML itself. [ASML are already trying to walk back the layoffs, and are offering employees a massive share package](https://nltimes.nl/2026/07/17/asml-promises-employees-shares-worth-eu20000-keep-jobs-till-2030) Indeed they say only managers will be layed off, but the senior engineers have already been demoted, they don't include this since they are technically still employed there... but their careers are screwed.

shaun5pais

Everyone selling ASML lol

Deep-Ad5028

The reason ASML DUV aren't capacity constrained is because there are a lot of customers that ASML could not sell to. Instead of ASML alone, the entire Western semiconductor industry is going to experience heightened competition.

SteveStacks

ASML was literally asking for it.

Haunting-Cow9376

Indeed they did, OP post is utter bs. Engineers were celebrating the move by ASML

SteveStacks

ASML is eventually going to get disrupted

realribsnotmcfibs

Time can be 2030 for all you know. They have built a EUV prototype years ago. Not only that but have poached high up researchers from ASML who were credited for some breakthroughs. People keep talking about “catching up” when they really just need a mediocre machine that somewhat can produce. Even if it had half the yield it would be cheaper or at the vary least another source to put pressure on existing manufacturing. Or better yet all that is needed for China to be willing to tip Taiwan over and plant their flag. Underestimating a billion people and a long term dictatorship with a goal is crazy. Even more so as they rapidly eat our lunch in fields they couldn’t compete in a decade ago.

Icy_Pay7280

ASML cannot make a DUV machine from scratch, they can only assembly parts sourced from dozens of countries into a DUV machine, China can make the whole thing entirely by themselves, thats the difference