Reddit Posts
Last week's market performance and economic news review
What do y’all think about using ChatGPT for stock researching?
It’s 2024, how are you guys planning on taking advantage the “AI Craze”?
TSM - I was right, kind of, and i think there's still more value here.
My portfolio idea - Going into 2023 betting on supply chains
Taiwan Semi (TSMC) will be 'back to strong growth in 2024' - JPMorgan (holding small position)
Thinking about a higher growth portfolio for the new year.
$KO outperforms half of the Mag 7 in 2024 because of $NVO and $LLY
$INTC Israels : 3.2Billion for a Western Worlds TSM. And that ASML NM Machine. 5nm, 3nm, 2nm coming. No More Taiwan TSM China Fear.
How can normalized-diluted-EPS be increasing while total common equity decreases?
Canon, known for its cameras, launches ASML challenge with machine to make the most advanced chips
ASML Misses Earning Huge. EPS 4.81 vs 4.99 est, Rev 6.67B vs 7.31B est
If China invades Taiwan would ASML explode or crash?
Time for the AI bubble to Pop out.
What allocation approach is implied by Toby Nangle's new FT article on narrow markets driving equity returns?
Tesla CEO Elon Musk: 'We're using a lot of Nvidia hardware'
So with both ASML and TSM(C) earnings/calls complete how do we feel for the future of AI/semi-conductor chips sentiment?
ASML- reporting on 7-19. I bought 740 strike call, Aug 18 expiry.
How to decide from which exchange to buy a stock from in a dual listing NASDAQ: ASML vs AMS: ASML?
Samsung Electronics makes 17-fold gains from investment in ASML
The future picks and shovels of AI may not be GPUs but ASICs, following the crypto trajectory. GOOGL and the dreaded Samsung appear to be the leaders in this space. What is the highest-weighted Samsung ETF and what are other industry-leading AI FPGA/ASICs tickers?
The Giant Behind AI Technology: ASML Holdings N.V.
ASML sales and gross margin beat guidance, but continues to see mixed demand signals
Investment Strategy China Invasion of Taiwan + interefence USA
List of public companies that are integral to AI?
Nvidia released a new "nuclear bomb", Google chatbot is also coming, computing power stocks again on the tide of halt
Daily U.S. Stock Market News Flash (Thursday, March 9)
Why did ASML stock drop 5% between 13:30 and 14:40 CET (Amsterdam time)?
Ride the AI Roller Coaster to Strike Gold: Invest in NVIDIA, ASML, and TSMC and step into the future.
AMD, Nvidia lead chips lower as results from Texas Instruments, ASML spurs caution
There‘s a massive earnings week coming up. All Betards looking for Tesla. I‘m more interested in Blackstone, ASML, Microsoft, Credit card companies, 3M and Intel.
Semiconductor. how did other countries become #1 and not USA?
What are some good semiconductor stocks to hold long-term?
Are these tech stocks all worthy of long term investment?
A globally critical chip firm (ASML) is driving a wedge between the U.S. and Netherlands over China tech policy
What is holding the US back from global semiconductor dominance?
Market Weekly Recap: FAAMG, Chip, Software Sectors jumped heavily, coin market tumbled
must read book to under stand the semi conductor industry - Chip wars, chip shortages - etc
Is ASML a less risky semi conductor play because it is not based in China/Taiwan?
Powell did exactly as i thought yesterday which makes me even more bullish now
Market Weekly Recap: Streaming, Chips, Airline Stocks Led the Gain, Tesla Earnings Alarmed the Tech
ASML shrugs off slowdown, U.S. China sanctions, reports strong Q3 earnings
ASML, a major global chip company, jumps 6% after earnings; do you think semiconductor stocks are about to start rising sharply?
Semiconductor route wipes out $240 Billion from chipmakers - TSMC drops 8.3% and Samsung and Tokyo Electron also declined.
Signs are piling up that the tech downturn may be deeper and longer-lasting than feared.
Mentions
I sold all but 250 shares of RIVN at about a 30% profit, and in turn i purchased more RYCEY, ASML, and AMZN.
ASML isn’t really tied to TSMC (even though TSMC is their #1 customer). They only see 500-600 machines per year. Their big purchasers only need so many machines. ASML’s big challenge has been Chinese export controls.
I genuinely wish TSM had competition. They're starting to squeeze suppliers and ASML is one of them. Those talks with ASML are interesting, because seem they come with delays on procurement rather than cost decreases. TSM, not NVDA, has the largest sway on bleeding edge at the moment in my eyes.
Management of large companies (the ones that know significantly more about their business than any analyst) make these sorts of long term predictions fairly frequently. ASML and Netflix both just made mention of their estimates for the end of 2030. It's not 10 years, but it sure doesn't fit into that 12-18 month category you talked about. It's not useless, it's just that Wall Street analysts have a public record for their predictions that can hurt their reputation if they're massively wrong. I'm not in fear of losing my job for assuming the wrong growth rate, but I'm also not making absurd assumptions like $10 per share or $1000 per share.
Sure but the question was about what prevents others from taking over Cuda or this market in general. The foundry is not limited to Nvidia, and ASML is not limited to TSMC. While those 2 hold Huawei back it doesn’t stop non-Chinese companies. But also on the software front it’s not like Cuda is still the only thing up there and the holy grail.
Yeah, I literally got out of most US securities that didn’t already have a good profit point for me. Made some short term profits too but I spent most of the earnings to diversify into various indices for the EU, Germany, Asia, Defense, and ASML. Holding onto a bit of cash in that account for market dips 9of broad US indices.
I got in ASML last may at 900 and cut my losses at 700 in November. Similar situation with Celsius. I lost a lot but I bounced back quicker than if I kept holding.
I love RYCEY so much. Best “european” stock other than ASML and maaaaaayve SPOT.
what just happend to ASML, that jump - wow
Isn't this a pretty common way to report for semis sector? I recall ASML does something similar with their orders being reported as "delivered" before the machines are actually shipped. Which can cause some weirdness in their earnings especially if there's a shipment delay, slowdown or cancellations. imo lead time and when orders are actually reported as revenue are something to be aware of in the industry that isn't necessarily particular to NVDA.
Google. Apple. Heineken. Ahold Delhaize. ASML
No. The Chinese will build their own if you prevent exports. This was done to bring profits to NVIDIA. The Chinese are already doing advanced EUV to work around ASML. Blocking them is a losing proposition.
So ASML should also start selling to the entire world. What an absolute fuckin regard
Holding strong companies means seeing their stock prices drop below their intrinsic value, at times for years. I saw ASML drop close to my original buy prices after holding for two years. The underlying business is still growing at the management estimates, and the earnings multiple shrinks in the meantime. I sleep easy even if the price is stagnant for a period. Quality prevails over the long term.
The chip world is always a little volatile, but the foundations - TSMC, ASML, ARM - are generally always going to be pretty safe comparatively. Even if Nvidia tanked and someone's tech surpassed theirs, they'd likely be building it at TSMC, using a fab designed and built by ASML. And given the rise in low power high compute devices, and the growth of AI, ARM with their lead on low power chips and architecture set is going to be pretty solid.
I hope ASML responds by opening sales to China
Nvidia, Broadcom, TSM, and ASML are all complementary, I think, and good companies. But can lead to overexposure to semis~
I love it long-term, but as with everything else right now in tariff land, it has much danger. I also like ASML.
Look at the financial statements of all the semi names and invest in the ones with fastest growing revenues and profit. The 3 names I gave you are the top 3. Qcom, amd, arm, Mrvl, ASML, Amat, lam, klac, etc etc are so far behind. That’s why you’re just best off buying SMH and allowing the industry to rebalance for you. There’s really no reason to buy Qcom. They continue to plummet in year 3 of the AI revolution.
It's liberation day in The Netherlands. So puts on ASML
Warren Buffett’s cash pile(360B) would make it the 25th largest company in the world if it was a stock. JUST HIS CASH ALONE…. They could buy any of these companies all cash no debt: ASML $360b COST $350b ORCL $340b KO $330b they already own 9% The list goes on: Toyota, Chevron, Merck, PepsiCo, etc. etc.
I mean the current ASML ecosystem runs through a dozen or so countries that are highly specialized and super hi tech. I'm sure China is filled with geniuses and even if they steal the know how.. which they have... They still have to build it out themselves. You may have a high opinion of them but they haven't been on the cutting edge on anything computing related ever. Most of their innovations have been around replicating western technologies with less resources. So being on the cutting edge is entirely different problem for them altogether. Not impossible but that's not a very good bet to happen within even 10 years.
I’ll reiterate my comment from yesterday, Big Tech earnings have been better than expected and so has Q2 guidance. We have already seen peak fear and uncertainty from tariffs, and deals and more positive news will only continue in the coming weeks. Cyclical components of the economy such as durable goods, auto manufacturing, and residential construction refuse to roll over. These components are what determines the business cycle and if we are headed toward a recession. Unemployment continues to remain near all-time lows, as expected with the cyclical portions of the economy continuing to hold up. AKA, in the near term I believe we easily can continue higher, especially with the impressive earnings and margin expansion we have seen in corporate profits. Between April 2nd and April 7th, during peak fear and uncertainty, when everyone on Reddit was saying American exceptionalism is over, and this time was different, and this was the end of the stock market as we know it, I was buying heavily. I bought crowdstrike sub 350, bought Netflix sub 800, bought Meta sub 500, and bought ASML sub 600. I’m already up 20-30% on many of these purchases and I believe they will continue to run higher. They all have world class business models and were trading at a heavy discount due to all the uncertainty. Remember, the only time you’re going to get amazing deals on world class companies is during times of high uncertainty. It is the uncertainty that allows for the discounts. If you wait till the uncertainty is fully gone to invest, you will always have mediocre returns, because the deals will be gone too.
I love how the only bear case for ASML is that it’s European (and it actually makes sense lol)
You think this regard knows what ASML even is?
Bro. All your chips are made from hardware by ASML… from the Netherlands
Why the hell do you think USA keeps ASML on such a tight leash, regard.
ASML is my top pick for Europe too but it might be a little risky. I have considered Siemens multiple times. What do you think about NXPI? I like Microsoft too but I would never buy Amazon due to ethic reasons (but I am not sure Microsoft is that much better). I have a lot of AMD but it's caused plenty of harm to my portfolio and I have already decided to rebalance into other stocks. For Japan, I simply buy the Nikkei 225 index because I am not very well informed about the stocks.
Hello there For ethic reasons i'd like to withdraw from all my ETFs and stock pick. I know i'll end up underperforming indexes but i'm not doing it to get the highest possible money return at all cost. My criteria are the following : \- I want 8 stocks from North America, 8 from EU, 8 from Japan so 24 total \- Regarding sectors i want to exclude financial services so no bank/insurance, for energy no fossil fuels but renewable/nuclear if possible, no car builder even if it's electric, no luxury goods. But i still want various sectors even if more tech exposed already. I'm not 100% decided on these but so far i decided on : \- ASML, Siemens, SAP, Roche, Vinci, Schneider Electric for Europe \- Hitachi, Sony, Takeda, Tokyo Electron, Nintendo, Keyence, Kubota, Daikin for Japan \- Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Visa, Johnson & Johnson for North America How would you complete or modify that list ? I kinda struggle are there are no really good and intuitive stock screener available entirely for free
Hello there For ethic reasons i'd like to withdraw from all my ETFs and stock pick. I know i'll end up underperforming indexes but i'm not doing it to get the highest possible money return at all cost. My criteria are the following : \- I want 8 stocks from North America, 8 from EU, 8 from Japan so 24 total \- Regarding sectors i want to exclude financial services so no bank/insurance, for energy no fossil fuels but renewable/nuclear if possible, no car builder even if it's electric, no luxury goods. But i still want various sectors even if more tech exposed already. I'm not 100% decided on these but so far i decided on : \- ASML, Siemens, SAP, Roche, Vinci, Schneider Electric for Europe \- Hitachi, Sony, Takeda, Tokyo Electron, Nintendo, Keyence, Kubota, Daikin for Japan \- Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Visa, Johnson & Johnson for North America How would you complete or modify that list ? I kinda struggle are there are no really good and intuitive stock screener available entirely for free
If the US truly wants to obliterate Chinese exports, it can But only by leveraging its alliances. The previous administration leveraged its alliance with the Netherlands to prevent the sales of ASML litography machines to China. The US is a substantial export market for China, but if the US had gotten its east Asian allies and Europe on board, it could have truly hurt China. This administration either doesn't understand, or has deeply ideological reasons to not acknowledge that a big part of the US's strength is its alliances.
Someone give me another semis play other than NVDA ASML TSM. I want some more exposure but want something different
Well the Dutch own the keys to the kingdom with $ASML. Ain’t nobody making cutting edge chips without the Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) Machines they sell. They have a monopoly and sell their high end machines for 3 nm at ~$380 million a pop.
Why is ASML performing so bad damn
The US government retains significant IP rights over ASML technology and many critical vendors are based in the US. They don’t have a choice.
The US government retains significant IP rights over ASML technology and many critical vendors are based in the US. They don’t have a choice.
Nvda has taken a beating, but if you bought low, congratulations. Brkb was a wise pairing to have as your 1 and 2 IMO. I had a bunch of SMH, ASML, TSM, VGT. That's my semi exposure, and nvda. I most of that but kept VGT.
Uncertainty? -200,000+ Government workers and contractors have been laid off -140,000 immigrant workers and students (paying full tuition) have been deported with many more in process -ICE and Border Patrol are harassing tourists (tourism is 3% of US GDP) -Trump is constantly insulting/threatening Canada (the biggest trading partner) -Due to Biden's China chips ban Huawei has caught up to ASML and Nvidia All of those are certainties. I didn't even mention tariffs.
Why are they locked out from the latest lithography machines? Because the US threatened the Netherlands to impose export restrictions on ASML for these machines to China. Who is currently severely hurting relations with Europe? Yeah, Trump. I'm curious how long these restrictions will last if Trump continues to deteriorate relationships with the EU. It's not in the EU's benefit to prevent China from competing with the US on chips.
People are concerned that this will be another byd moment. New energy was what the state focused on 1-2 decades ago and look at where Chinese EV and solar is now. Now the state is focusing on semicon. You can say that semicon is much more complex and Chinese fabs are crippled due to lack of EUV machines. Which is why this is such a big deal if Huawei can already match the H20 or H100 even with all those import restrictions. IF, and this is a big IF, China can successfully manufacture an AI chip that matches Nvidia’s best then you can expect the global semicon market to look like the current EV market. The implications are not just on Nvidia and AMD, but the wider semicon sector. Companies like ASML would become irrelevant if Chinese machines can match their best EUV. Then there are the 1001 specialist suppliers to make EUVs etc.
Before the restriction, EUV machines and chips were the things that China hasn't really fully decided if they want to go all in on. There were multiple business scandals of people claimed they made major break through in chips manufacturing, secured billions of national funding, then disappeared with the money and people found out that it's all a hoax. People were having serious debate about maybe, just maybe, it's okay to not be able to manufacture chips and just buy EUV machines from ASML. Maybe westerners can have this one for themselves. It's a world of globalization, it's gonna be okay. Biden's restriction completely shattered any illusion Chinese had and they've been putting everything into their own chip industry ever since. It may not "plant the seed", but it absolutely kicked things into full action and accelerated the those process by years or even decades.
If China can make cheaper chips at same performance as Nvidia then Nvidia ain’t a monopoly. AMD/intel ought to look at themselves in the mirror and ask if they are serious people. TSMC + ASML is also a monopoly. If china can make high end chips, cheaper than combo of ASML + TSMC + NVDA, then it is a scary reality. US lost its cards. If US loses both AI and robotics race, its gonna be a sad century. It’s already lost EV + battery + solar race.
Huawei started a long time ago, and actually already have an AI chip on the market thats roughly comparable to the nVidia H100; this is a successor to that chip. China accelerated its investments in semiconductors dramatically when the US started imposing restrictions on fab equipment in 2022 and banned Huawei; they are now on track to become completely independent and competitive in the next few years, especially now that they seem to have tackled the biggest hurdle, a EUV light source. If they can put that in production, not only will they not need the US, they wont need ASML or TSMC anymore either.
There were some additional restrictions on certain DUV in 2024, ASML adjusted some of their projection sin Dec due to it. [https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/asml-expects-impact-of-updated-export-restrictions-to-fall-within-outlook-for-2025](https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/asml-expects-impact-of-updated-export-restrictions-to-fall-within-outlook-for-2025)
My overall point is, it is possible the PRC got EUV or cutting edge DUV tech working to the point it is at least close given the resources they're putting toward the effort. I think they have sub 5nm die working that they aren't making public. Worst case and less likely situation would be they managed to get an actual EUV machine working with homegrown software. Chinese companies have been scalping central personnel away from ASML, TSM, Samsung, Google, Intel, Nvidia, AMD, etc for years at this point with inflated salaries. Huawei's phone chips a couple years ago were down to 7nm. Where do you think they are now with more time and personnel?
I personally find the idea they could move a machine into China, so have it obviously taken away at an existing ASML customer, so unlikely that I’d consider it not possible without being known. As for the export controls, [there is no ban on DUV export as per the Dutch government](https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2025/01/15/klever-aanscherping-exportcontrole-op-geavanceerde-productieapparatuur-voor-halfgeleiders), only a requirement for an export permit, which so far i don’t think has happened.
EUV machines are too specific are rare that only a handful of players can buy and operate them. There is no third party method possible. Furthermore ASML can remote shutdown any EUV machine and you need ASML engineers to even get it working.
I think they are entirely capable of getting those machines onto the mainland one way or another and jailbreaking/reverse engineering the software to get them to work without ASML's permission. Just a matter of when and whether it's already happened. DUV is another likely way they could get close to Nvidia's die size, the most cutting edge DUV was export controlled much more recently than EUV.
Highly unlikely as there is still no evidence of chips that need it. Plus these aren’t exactly blenders you can move and plug in elsewhere. Without support from ASML these machines don’t keep running.
ASML has never sold EUV machines to China. There are restrictions on EUV tech since acquiring Cymer during the Obama era. There’s also no evidence at all of Chinese chips requiring EUV equipment, multi-patterning on DUV yes though. But the lack of EUV would be the main reason why their nodes aren’t yet down to a couple nm.
I don't think anyone will panic until China has an ASML competitor. Once they crack that code wave goodbye to tsmc, Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Samsung etc.
Given by the fact that the S&P500 and DJI lost between 5-10% of their value throughout the last month, I guess millions of investors 'didnt see it coming'. These are Covid and 2008 subprime mortgage crash levels. You think I'm going to discuss possible events only in terms of likelihood so I can cover any conceivable outcome & base my investments purely on anything that could happen? Then I'd be manager at a pension investment fund trading with all necessary safety constraints. Who could've predicted the orange man would be actually this stupid? It's like faulting someone for investing in Boeing in december 2018. Except in this comparison, the company (ASML) isn't doing anything wrong.
ASML export restrictions to China were only enforced much more recently; they had plenty of time to acquire EUV. In any case Huawei uses both SMIC and TSM to fab chips.
Did they get ahold of some ASML EUV machines or finally manage to reverse engineer one I wonder?
Didn't ASML just have a partial data breach with some of their plans for their machines?
Biggest bottleneck for China is now that they are still behind on the ASML EUV machines and using the old DUV machines. Even if they have the blueprint for the newest Nvidia chips. They wouldn’t be able to fabricate that without ASML’s technology. And getting one of those machines to reverse engineer is nearly impossible.
No. Hmm, most of the advanced semiconductor companies are fabless- no fabrication factories. And they are mostly American or Western. I think Samsung is advanced too (?) Most of the most advanced fabless chips are manufactured at TSM, in Taiwan. They also depend heavily on ASML, like exclusively, and that’s a Dutch company I’m not saying China can’t develop advanced chips, but my understanding is they are behind
I'm averaging about 4.2-5% on my my cash/cash-like positions. Hedging in Gold/Euro's (mostly GLD) at about 5% as an add on. Upped my non-US single stock holding a bit as well with European defense, GRAB, and a couple other single stocks (ASML/TSM for instance). Not going to lie, my portfolio is a bit of a mess holdings wise. As in, more focus on many small holdings than is advisable to keep track of for traditional wisdom since I'm defensively managing a port. So I'm more focused on minimizing damage with short-intermediate positions as the world sorts itself.
You know why Intel went down? *They are afraid of tariffs.* Yes. The company that makes 70% of their chips internally (huge US presence, hell they are even expanding US factories before Trump got in). The company that is the least reliant on Taiwan, and probably best positioned to weather them, is afraid of the tariffs. Meanwhile, TSMC, the company that **EXPORTS** almost all of their chips overseas and is **IMPORTED BY US DESIGNERS,** beat and raised guidance for the next quarter, effectively saying "we don't see tariffs having a negative effect". Same goes for TXN, ASML... almost all of the semiconductor companies have NOT guided down for tariffs in the next quarter. Nvidia (Jensen Huang) even went so far as to say last month that "tariffs will not have a meaningful impact in the short term". This is in spite of all the whining and complaining corporate America about the tariffs that is reflected in the media through their influence, all the calls the White House must be receiving... they go and tell the investors ***Everything's fiiiiiiineeee!*** The TSMC fabbed chips, which cost the company more, are selling worse than the ones they make because of what they claim as "consumers looking to save". They also beat earnings, because while Q1 is historically the weak quarter, they saw a pull-in for orders ahead of tariffs, meaning Q2 should be weaker on demand. Basically, Intel is guiding for a recession in Q2, weaker demand for the chips that cost them more to produce, stronger demand for the cheaper+older chips (which because of the recent policies, they actually have a **shortage of producing these lol**), and to top it off they are expecting tariffs and foreign trade policies to shift unfavorably and hurt the bottom line. Oh also they have no clue where or when the rest of the $5B the government allocated for them for the CHIPS act is coming. Intel was actually honest in saying they don't know what's going to happen so we're going to guide conservatively. The good news is that the stock has been range bound around $20 for 9 months so it's not a big deal, and now if they meet expectations in the next quarter because the tariff impact is significant, the impact was priced in ahead of time.
I agree with your general sentiment, but you are overlooking some companies outside of pure tech. ASML, NVO, LVMH are world dominating in their respective field (NVO sharing the throne). There is simply no competition for ASML. SAP and DTG are second tier, but still critical. BMW sells more cars than Tesla. Tesla is just propped up, and not for business reasons.
I consider grabbing up all of ASML's available 18 fabbers and pushing for directed self-assembly pretty innovative. Do you disagree?
News from yesterday: Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on ASML Holding (AS:ASML) to €640 from €680 in a note to clients on Thursday, citing “weaker-than-expected Q1 orders and the persistence of concerns around potential tariff impacts, AI production cuts and the sustainability of China demand.” The firm maintained its Equal-weight rating on the stock, highlighting lingering uncertainty across key end markets. The bank’s analysts said, “Save for China strength, the new orders this quarter do not suggest upside to estimates for this year with little evidence of strong 2026 growth.” It's good to have contrarian opinions from sell side analysts. It's also good to know when to call BS on their valuations.
I nibbled a bit more on MCO. I also rethought my positioning across the board during the whole initial liberation day fiasco. I sold out of V and MA completely and went international. Dip bought Nintendo and ASML while entering positions in Constellation Software and Ferrari for the first time.
Yea. I bought ASML. Looking at putting 1% of portfolio into NVO. There are worst things to do a yolo on.
I stress over margins of safety, but to be honest I don't even do DCFs aside from a couple of my holdings like ASML. At the end of the day, if you've invested in an elite company, the price you paid won't matter in the long term (10+ years).
thats where the pride comes in because the bullying started a long time ago. tariffs aside, the US have effectively "sanactioned" china from: 1. buying equipment from ASML to develop their own advanced semi conductor facilitites to manufacture high end chips 2. blocked sales of high end AI NVIDIA chips (fully unlocked) to rein in China's AI research effforts i could go on and on but really, there really is alot that China will want to negotiate on that the US at this present stage simply cannot accept. so yea
ASML has a market cap of $230 billion.
I thought the problem with REE is the processing part, and China took decades to build a supply chain. Building your own is like trying to build another ASML. I could be wrong though.
The US can’t go without ASML though.
It is quite amazing how you can't comprehend that each country needs to its own infrastructure to function that has ZERO correlation with the US. Ever heard of supermarkets, banks, real estate, energy? There's thousands and thousands of listed stocks with no correlation to the US and all you can think about is ASML and TSMC?
You've probably moved on, but I just did a bit of research… Yeah, even if you buy TSMC or ASML, you're still tied to the U.S. economy. Why? ASML relies on TSMC, which in turn depends on megacaps like Intel, Apple, and Nvidia for most of their demand. The EU can't replace that demand, and there are trade restrictions with China. Also, ASML relies on U.S.-based Cymer lasers for their machines—that's how the U.S. has leverage over ASML when it comes to blocking exports to China. Bro, all the global companies worth investing in are heavily reliant on either (A) U.S. demand or (B) a U.S.-based supplier. Beyond that, Chinese stocks are way too risky because Xi Jinping could wake up one day and crack down on the tech sector again… #
The ASML lithography machines are the linchpin. Those machines get blown up, and the experts don't matter. There are no advanced chips for anyone. China can't just build those. Not yet.
This is a non-sensical argument. TSMC/Intel has to buy lithography machines from the Dutch company ASML to manufacture leading node chips. Does it mean TSMC/Intel are not capable of precision manufacturing? Everybody has to buy everybody else's tooling/machines (depending on industry specialization) from different parts of the world in order to manufacture something. A modern factory has hundreds of tooling from many different countries of the world in a globalized economy. Not a single country in the world can manufacture all of their industrial tool-chain from A-to-Z all by themselves. Even German and Japanese factories imports a lot of their tooling from other countries to be used in their factories.
The next US president, first thing he will do is remove all the tariffs. Long term, the U.S. companies are the best and China comes in 2nd. Europe only has ASML, nothing else.
It's more people criticize ASML as being European tech because it's allowed to operate by the grace of the USA government.
There’s a news article about how ASML operates — it’s essentially described as a supply chain management company because it heavily relies on its suppliers. That’s why the U.S. has ASML by the balls; it can tell ASML who it can and can’t sell its equipment to. If the U.S. Department of Energy ever revoked its patents, ASML’s business would be crippled. A lot of their cutting-edge EUV tech depends on U.S. research and components. It’s nowhere near the situation you’re describing where Apple has to source its raw materials. You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about.
I love how people brag about ASML being this big European tech flex when so much of it runs on U.S. patents and relies heavily on American suppliers.
eh, I had a look as ASML. Literally has a monopoly on EUV. Basically the most high value strategic asset to NATO. Thanks dude
Do you even ASML……? Yeah because the US is definitely not imploding as u speak lmao
I can't look at th ASML 6m or longer chart, because one time on 12/16 someone bought a bunch for 6900 euros instead of 690 and the whole chart scale gets fucked by the candle.
easy: TSMC - China invades Taiwan ASML - both China and US are actively developing domestic lithography
Why? This is the most fundamental fallacy: that the future will automatically mirror the past. US equities have outperformed for most of your short life, so they always will. What are the US advantages? Education? No. Infrastructure? No. Clearly most of it was political stability and the rule of law. Does that really still apply? I don’t think putting money into TSMC and ASML over NVDA and INTC is “batshit insane.” But you do you.
Good luck making high performance semiconductors without the EUV systems made by ASML.
Like Spotify, ASML, Philips, Klarna, SAP, Ayden, Nokia, SuperCell etc?
China showcased a Risc-V chip made using 2D materials (single atom thick). Notably, it didn't require the use of any Lithography equipment, bypassing the restrictions placed on ASML. Alibaba also made a Risc-V server chip recently, with DeepSeek support, and China is working on a 10 year plan to replace ARM and x86 with Risc-V. In short, save us Jensen. 
ASML might be a great long term play if it keeps dropping. Based and manufactured in the Netherlands, almost a monopoly, insatiable demand, giant moat, etc
ASML won't go below 500, will it
>EU learned a hard lesson of how things can go wrong when you rely on one single country I don't think it did. Sure, I lost count of EU politicians publicly stating how 'EU has to be more independent' ... but they were doing the same thing during Trump's first term. When it comes to dependency, natgas is actually pretty simple - it's a commodity offered by multiple sellers and there are no differences except for price. I would be much, much more worried about technological dependence. US-owned cloud computing, US-designed CPUs, operating systems, US-owned payment processors, etc. And no, ASML alone does not counter that especially it is reliant on US-based subcontractors and patents. And even worse, US-controlled social networks. Thank's to Musk getting in bed with Trump, US government now has a direct access to tens of millions of Europeans to push right narratives, discredit people, manufacture consent, sow dissent, whatever they want. >Also in this bloc we do strategy, aim before we fire and try to think more than a day ahead. You see strategy, I see Brownian motion driven by divergent interests of 27 different countries. For example let's take initial idea of retaliatory tariffs: after Canada pulled US liquor from their shelves, it would make sense for EU to coordinate and deliver one-two punch to wreck red states' liquor business. But it took one tweet from Trump promising 200% tariffs on French wines and suddenly bourbon etc. was off the counter-tariffs list. >Our best option would probably be to start a full trade war. That way we can assume that congress and house gathers 2/3 of majority to take away Trump's ability to set tariffs or he just might be impeached. So it would be one month of pain Sorry, but this would require unity. And good luck achieving that with Hungary working with Russia to destroy EU from inside, Baltics+Poland trusting US more than they trust EU, France interpreting 'EU first' as 'France first' , Germany "just let us sell cars" and Italy in such precarious economic state than month of pain could break them. Bold decisions are impossible in such divided organization so I think "don't rock the boat and give Trump some concessions" option will win, because 27 won't be able to agree to anything else.
ASML, Unilever, Ericsson, Bosh, Shell, Novo Nordisk, Nokia, etc....All European companies that get most of their revenue from GLOBAL markets, not Europe.
That is literally all the EU has in tech. ASML and SAP. That's it. Nothing else. We don't have a Microsoft, Apple, Meta, NVDIA equivalent. Only ASML and SAP.
AI is a bubble and we do have ASML though you might find that one shocking
I still back the USA to come out on top but we can't disregard amazing company's from other parts of the world. for example without ASML (Europe) and TSMC Nvidia would not be able to function. there's great plays out there and it wouldn't hurt to diversify
Not really, ASML, Unilever etc will just sell to China
Buy NVDA, GOOGL, ASML and BTC. Buy it in exactly the same order
The aggregate demand domestically will be reduced by the crushing of the middle/lower class. International the demand will be severely dampened by reciprocal tariffs. This isn't hard to understand. Additionally you are assuming that we produce those things (computers, networking equipment) domestically. We do not. We in fact rely heavily on foreign owned companies such as ASML. We cannot produce chips without them and when you pick fights with every country in the world and even impose tariffs on Antartica (but not for North Korea and Russia inexplicably) the fundamental investment environment is fundamentally altered.