ASML

Master-Piccolo-4588

Does DT understand that we have ASML?

Curlymoeonwater

I have subscriptions to the Wall St Journal and Barrons - I sometimes let them lapse so I can pick them up at a good discount around the holidays. I subscribe to Morningstar (it's the most expensive sub I have since I use it as my portfolio tracker); good articles and screeners and I use their individual stock analysis as a major source for interpreting stock valuation. I listen to Barron's Streetwise and Consuela Mack's Wealthtrack podcasts - they both provide fairly conservative commentary and a wide swath of good interviews weekly. I'll occasionally tune into CNBC during the day to see if there's someone interesting on, but try to ignore the hype. Bloomberg tv has alot of good news clips throughout the day and the weekly show Wall Street Week with David Westin is a solid, wide ranging informative show. I rarely jump on anything because of a headline - it's already too late. But I figure that the more I know about anything and everything in the news, the better. I do like to look at stocks that get slammed due to a headline just to see whether it's justified. Example - when news about Deepseek came out last year there was alot of talk about Google being doomed. I didn't jump in, but was buying a few months later after the dust settled and analysis became a bit more sober. I've read about ASML for several years and have missed opportunities but finally held my nose and began buying in October '24 after they said earnings might be flattish in '25; a year of flat earnings is not going to kill a ASML. I've also had dead money in ALB for over 2 years so I'm not claiming to be a genius. And MRNA has been nothing but a loser - thankfully a small position. I love reading and being engaged in my investments and balance my individual stocks with etf's. Doing ok, maybe could be doing better.

atape_1

If the EU actually wants to seriously hurt the US, they can stop exporting ASML machines.

gianfrugo

i think you are right for the wrong reasons. climate change, natural resource depletion aren't real problems for Investments: climate change isn't that big of a dial for companies (it is for animals habitat and poor nations but not for the sep). natural resource depletion will be a problem in another 100 year maybe the elefant in the room is ai. and in particular AGI/ASI. if we (as of humanity) succesfully build an asi the entire economic sistema of the world will see change drastically. ASI is the most important technology that humans can create, more consequential than fire, agricolture, or electricity. a world whit an asi is a world that dosn't need human work, and where incredible new technology is discovered autonomously at speed unimaginable. the right thing to do is simple by ai stock. my opinion of particular stocks: the best: GOOGLE (50% of my portfolio): has modles, tpu, fsd... very good: TSMC, INTELL, ASML good but not perfect: BROADCOM, NVIDIA, AMAZON, MICROSOFT, TESLA, AMD, MU more risky but potentially interesting: RXRX, OKLO, [z.ai](http://z.ai/), mimimax (and probably a lot more) and i hope for openai, antropi, x1 robbotica, figure and unitree IPOs S&P will probably still be decent but a lot of companies will fail. and more importantly work will be a memory of the past so better have a huge portfolio or live in a country that offers UBI.

longGERN

Shoulda bought way more ASML fml

I-vonatinkle

Good news for ASML then?

Ecstatic_Wheelbarrow

Not that rules apply anymore, but you technically can't do that under the WTO without justifications (hostile takeover of land probably isn't one of them). You're likely correct that the US will do it anyways so expect hardware to get even more expensive with new tariffs on ASML. >Trade without discrimination >1. Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally  Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.

Griffeltje

ASML could do the funniest thing here

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

''[source=chatgpt.com](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding?utm_source=chatgpt.com)''

gopoohgo

ASML relies on US patents on EUV lithography, and a US subsidiary, Cymer, for production of their equipment.

BigEdsHairMayo

The Dutch could do something so funny right now... AI bubble would pop immediately if US got cut off from ASML equipment. DO IT!!!!

BigEdsHairMayo

The Netherlands could send our economy back to the stone age if they prevented ASML equipment from being used for US chip production. Weeks of circuit breaker down days at NYSE.

Faktheduck

Maybe the Netherlands should counter with a 100% tariff increase on ASML machines to the US….

ShittyUsernane1222

the more 🥭 shits on Europe, the more likely it is that ASML will sell EUV machines to china in secret backdoor deals implemented via EU and China sanctioned clandestine smuggling operations.

flyingdutchmnn

America the 2nd most hate country on earth after Russia (according to your own junk media, Newsweek). 15% of europeans consider the US an ally 😅. So do tell, who are your allies? Canada maybe?? 😂 https://ecfr.eu/publication/how-trump-is-making-china-great-again-and-what-it-means-for-europe/ >Haha americas not an export country anyway. Is literally what Trump is trying to incentivize and his entire economic policy is built around. All for nothing I guess since you seem to accept its pointless. It's failing pretty miserably. >Please tell me 1 company that can compete with tech and cloud? Without ASML you cant even produce chips. We created the fucking tech industry. What, you don't think we have replaceable email domains? Cloud is easy to replace and that's actively being built, and WILL be replaced. Everything you've said is classic naive brainrot american bubble syndrome. Its why americans get this stereotype, but stereotypes come from something! We need nothing from the US

ClippingTetris

Give yourself an allotment for ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ risk investments. On the ‘Low’, look at indexes like VOO (overall), QQQ (tech) or ITA (military). For medium, speaking purely on tech, ASML, GLW, GOOG, AAPL, etc. On the high, but that into stock you think have the highest potential return. If you wanted to try something higher risk, look at an Options Call on an index fund ETF like $VOO or $SPY that doesn’t expire for 6-12 months.

HVVHdotAGENCY

Insane levels of hopium. The second one of the armada of EUV startups has a scalable MVP, ASML is toast

wright_on_

real ASML heads know about hyper NA EUV lithography

CriticalBlackberry90

ASML, AMAT, KLAC, LRCX are probably going to announce price increases soon and when that happens TSM will pass cost to NVDA who will pass cost to big tech and then they are toast. Spending 50+ billion every single year not sustainable.

Weak-Pomegranate-435

ASML already overvalued

Wnb_Gynocologist69

How about fu*king buy the asset THAT HAS THE STRONG OUTLOOK It's ridiculous looking at the volume of tsmc after their tremendous earnings and guidance beat. If you look at both assets, ASML continously rises and TSMC just goes flat currently. Sure it went up well pre earnings and on the pre teased guidance teaser but seriously... Wtf. If this doesn't pick up momentum next week I will massively downsize my position.

C-Me-Try

Typically things follow the money is the point I’m making. US companies have the money. JP Morgan is the key player for ASML and I’m confident they have a lot of pull in both the US and EU/ Dutch economies

CriticalBlackberry90

So basically they've kept tech index pinned by pumping all the suppliers (MU, SNDK, ASML, AMAT, KLAC, LRCX) and slow selling the others (AAPL, META, MSFT) with some theta (GOOGL, AMZN) and then pumping meme stocks through the roof (nuclear, space, interestingly not quantum this time)

C-Me-Try

ASMLs largest shareholders are US companies. Sure they are headquartered in the Netherlands, but the US investors control the direction. ASML wouldn’t not sell to something else that JP Morgan owns and that has nothing to do with politics

Affectionate-Panic-1

Biggest risk with ASML is China creating a competitor that meets or exceeds it, because they're trying.

nutella_dipped_dick

The EU should stop selling ASML equipment to the US.

Joonypoo

fuck i wanna get in on ASML but im holding too much shit

A55BAG

Hyperscalers are supposed to pay higher utility bills and they are out bidding each other and driving hardware prices ever higher. TSMC, NVIDIA, ASML, Samsung, Micron are all increasing their margins. Betting on Meta, Amazon or Alphabet here is risky imo.

callsonreddit

ASML shares could surge 70% in bull case as Morgan Stanley cites AI chip demand and strong TSMC outlook [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-70-surge-101600878.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-70-surge-101600878.html)

CMDR_Shepard96

0DTE ASML Earnings calls - go big or go poor.

LuckyJamnik

Do you know what a “dip” means? ASML is at ATH atm

GuiltyChampionship30

I suggest you do a bit of reading into the history of ASML and the challenges they faced in creating their machines. The engineers and scientists behind this company are to chip fabrication, what von Braun was to space rockets. It would take decades for another team to catch up with them.

fire_alarmist

ASML is the new netflix, they are going to short squeeze this piece of trash to such extremes its unreal then start the slow sell off back to where it should be(600). Do a stock split at the top so that they dont lose nearly as much on options when it comes down compared to the massive delta options they manipulated on the way up to pay out massively.

elgrandorado

Still kicking myself for selling most of my ASML stake. Great to see it popping like this on the back of TSMC's roaring year.

Fun-Ad-6948

True the ASML supply chain is global but the most important and hard to make parts (like the lenses) aren’t made in the US.

Fun-Ad-6948

Also worse than what you said, the Netherlands and ASML can brick the chip machines remotely.

Appropriate_Mixer

The US would just eventually create their own ASML, solidifying the whole chip supply chain in the US. It would take a few years but they own and can manufacture the tech

GreedyTexas

ASML went crazy.

Forgetwhatitoldyou

I started looking at the various suppliers - AMAT, ASML, KLAC, TOELY, LRCX - and I really don't have the expertise to keep up with their businesses, whereas I understand, at least from an investor POV, TSMC's business and what's driving changes in their earnings and stock.  I think they're also one of the few companies that would drive demand from the suppliers I mentioned, and have significant ability to keep supplier costs in line.  So as much as I'm tempted to spread things out over the various suppliers, I'm probably just going to stick with TSMC itself.  

dvdmovie1

There are parts of tech that that did very well last year then went nuts to start the year. Semicap, anything memory, European stuff (Besi, ASML, etc), Japan semicap names, etc.

Pojihut

AMD and ASML with the standout performance in my porty

Ancient_Sort5820

Putting 30k into ASML when it was like $700 turned out to be one of the best decisions of my life lol

Far-Requirement9180

AMAT, AMD, TSMC, ASML were the play all along

MitchCurry

ASML and IBKR with ATHs.

StonklordBenno

They are pricy, but I wouldn’t say overvalued. It is practically a monopoly that is near impossible to copy. Their MOAT is incredible. I don’t see them losing their position in the coming 5 years for certain, and probably 10 years. ASML’s high NA EUV machines are being sold for ~400mln a pop, and they can’t even satisfy demand and backlog. A great watch to understand their market position is the recent video by Veritasium explaining how insanely complex and hard to copy their machines are.

dol1_

Genuine question: Why is NVDA only up 1,5% this week while Intel is 19%, AMD is 15%, ASML is 14% and so on?

callsonreddit

TSMC earnings target up to $56B in 2026 capex and \~30% revenue growth, boosting the AI outlook. Pre-market: TSM +5%, ASML +7% [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qdksfv/tsmc\_earnings\_target\_up\_to\_56b\_in\_2026\_capex\_and/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qdksfv/tsmc_earnings_target_up_to_56b_in_2026_capex_and/)

Livid_Engineering_30

the company that really matters is ASML

Livid_Engineering_30

you mean ASML

T-Zing

Can't for the life of me understand why ASML is not a trillion dollar company yet

fire_alarmist

Everyone sleeping on ASML puts, China has built one of their machines and the only roadblock to producing more is obtaining some special mirrors that only one Swiss company makes. ASML literally finna go back down to 600 soon.

ProtoBraid

You google guys are sleeping on ASML its up 18% ytd vs 7% google.

ShadowLiberal

It's worse then what you said. A big part of ASML's profits are maintenance contracts that literally all of their customers have, because maintenance on their big and expensive machines is VERY important to keep them running properly, no one tries and does this on their own without ASML's help. So if ASML is suddenly barred from doing said maintenance then all of your existing machines are screwed sooner or later. It's not quite as bad with planes, since you can salvage parts off of other planes to fix them (as Russia has been doing). But it's also a big problem long term as you can only keep up that approach for so long without smuggling in more parts.

RainbowCrown71

ASML relies on US patents. They can’t sell to anyone without Washington’s approval. Novo Nordisk is rapidly falling behind Eli Lilly in U.S. market share in the weight loss space (Mounjaro is best in class). Losing them wouldn’t do much since Eli Lilly would simply assume the Novo factories in NC. Airbus parts is both ways. You can’t make an Airbus without U.S.-produced specialized parts that can’t be easily replicated. So I think your examples are rather weak tbh

Frozen_Shades

Holy Fuck ASML

Doclub29

Never thought I would say this but, ASML is overpriced

Commercial_Seat_3704

ASML CEO does the same shit

MitchCurry

TSM up 5.7% as is ASML on the TSM report.

FarrisAT

1. The contracts are variable with numerous options. The price is very much only set for the up-front paid allocation. New contracts will be massively more pricey. 2. ASML is a monopoly. They can play hardball. Their customers are literally trillion dollar companies (TSMC, Samsung, Micron).

Viktri1

Looking at ASML and TSM, Nvidia should be trading at least 50% higher. How is forward PE so low here.

StonklordBenno

Never sell ASML

Menior

The thing is USA only temporarily prevents ASML from production. There's nothing funny about it. Europe isn't going to provide the US with chip making equipment once we get that manufacturing going again. And we're sure going to look for partnerships east of our borders. The arrogance of America is going to cost them. They've already lost so much reputation and soft power the past few months. It's gonna get worse.

slimkay

It’s funny you list those examples. ASML supply chain partially runs through the US - as such, the US could also cripple ASML’s ability to manufacture its equipment by instituting its own export bans on key US components. Airbus and Novo have manufacturing / production facilities in the US. In Airbus’ case, its supply chain also depends on US suppliers as well, further complicating the situation. The two economies are a lot more tangled than you think.

slimkay

It’s funny you list those examples. ASML supply chain partially runs through the US - the US could also cripple ASML’s ability to manufacture its equipment. Airbus and Novo have manufacturing / production facilities in the US, so would largely be insulated from such bans.

Rude-Opposite-8340

ASML has a working killswitch. They can brick any machine. 1 snap and its bye bye AI stocks.

username-not--taken

ASML exports to Taiwan. Not USA

CriticalBlackberry90

They took ASML out back and shot it

Tootum

Crazy how no one remembers how Intel fell. The only reason Intel lost its lead was because it didn't have EUV machines from ASML, whereas TSMC did. Which is why AMD took off with superior nodes from TSMC. Intel has EUVs now, and even more advanced high NA EUV from ASML. It took a long time to get it up and running, and although capacity output isn't quite up to TSMC the playing field is level again.

Fuzzy_Photograph_361

ASML just jumps 7%, it has gone up 30% in the last 3 months holy shieet. Europoors are Euroriches all along.

Less_Register4608

ASML!!!!

prcodes

Imagine export bad on ASML EUV machines, Novo Nordisk pharmaceuticals, AirBus parts, etc….

Katth28

ASML 🚀

CriticalBlackberry90

Between ASML AMAT KLAC and LRCX, which is the best buy

CMDR_Shepard96

I was long on an ASML FEB20 1300C but decided to be responsible and swap it for 2x Feb 20 1300/1380 bull spreads Incase it crapped itself. Damnit.

Terrible-Space-5906

ASML full port?

fire_alarmist

That ASML price action is insane, that shit just jumped 5 bucks per tick for like 30 bucks straight up.

Admirable-Air8070

That’s a fair point. Particularly in reference to robotics. Granted tho they have been committed to robots at a large scale for a while, while the us has not until recently put emphasis toward that. But this was a discussion of whether china can disrupt ASML. An EUV machine makes even the most advanced drone technology look like folding a paper airplane. They copy well. But my point was you can’t really copy something this advanced, hence why the examples I gave were not FOV drones but rather Gen 5 stealth fighters.

Admirable-Air8070

Chinese gov says they are gonna have it working by 2028 (doubtful). Other sources estimate they may have it working by 2030. So even if china is able to eventually build a working EUV machine, they are years away. Not to mention these machines are what $400M each. I would be shocked if companies like TSM ditch ASML to buy a Chinese knock off instead. This also completely ignores the fact that in 4 years ASML will have improved their machines that much further. China is constantly playing catchup by just copying what the US develops. You are never gonna get ahead and become an industry leader by simply copying. Look at the Chinese air force for example. Chinas J-20 (5th Gen stealth fighters) entered service in 2017. Us did this in 1997 with the F-22. Or Chinas J-35 fighter that’s still being developed. To challenge the US F-35s that have been flying since pre 2010.

elgrandorado

No exit target for me. It's a long term hold and I'm patient. The stock was nearly at $120 billion market cap and I decided to continue holding as the opportunity to continue growing past that valuation is there. I did the same with ASML, and made the mistake of trimming my flowers and watering the weeds so to speak.

UpsetKoalaBear

How does that make sense? Explain to me how Intel was turning a profit overall prior to IFS being spun out? Because those profit numbers also included DC and client chips alongside what they spent on their fab. It wasn’t as if they spun out IFS and suddenly their DC/Client chip sales fell off a cliff. Like implying they were somehow “haemorrhaging” money in their fabs beforehand IFS ignores that they were still profitable compared to when IFS was spun out and they started preparing for servicing external customers. The reason IFS has operated with a loss since its creation is because they were operating on an internal model. Their fabs were never designed with external customers in mind Now with IFS, they want to make chips for other companies. So they need to expand fab capacity, create new PDK’s that are easily usable by clients, create support teams to help clients create designs etc. That costs money, that’s why they only stayed reporting a loss as an entire company since IFS was split out. They’re also buying the newer High-NA EUV machines from ASML, meanwhile TSMC is still using their older machines for the time being whilst they evaluate High-NA EUV. Hence Intel’s losses look worse than them. So the losses aren’t because Intel can’t make money, but because the R&D, and under utilised capacity in order to set the company up for external customers are hitting the P&L during the fab build out in places like Arizona, Oregon, and Ireland.

__redruM

You had me at ASML and then lost me when you put them in orbit.

Doclub29

ASML has no more room to grow at this point

Admirable-Air8070

I don’t think you understand what ASML does lmao

Fun-Choices

Good luck disrupting ASML.

Fun-Choices

ASML is actually fascinating, and is on the cusp of something huge. It could take our beloved 'space stocks' that are already going to skyrocket- to a new goddamn level. They create the machine, that creates the best semiconductors/chips whatever in the world. Nobody even comes close. The few things that make their proccess so goddamn difficult, is heat, gravity, and debris. Space solves all of these problems beautifully. the crystalline structures of their nano chips, are NEAR perfect - but as I understand it, gravity actually bends everything ever so slightly. This is why space manufacturing is a big goddamn deal. SPACE FORGE is the company already pioneering this, semiconductor manufacturing in space, but when ASML chooses a partner, it's going to become the biggest space company we've ever seen. I've been digging and digging trying to find any information on this as a possibility and I can't find ANYTHING from ASML on space manufacturing. Does anybody know anything about this? and also, am I restarted?

FallenWiFi

Nah, SHMD is better. ASML is ripe for disruption imo

PaperDoom

What about during a shovel rush? Calls on ASML it is.

ZacTheBlob

Designs won't help much when they don't have the ASML machines to make them or the access to the ecosystem which is literally the whole reason Nvidia is worth what it is.

CMDR_Shepard96

So, I'm down 30% on my MSFT calls. Kinda ready to give up on this turd. Do I switch to ASML?

Over-Stage827

I share daily, data-driven analysis of the U.S. stock market after the market close using a proprietary trading system. Below is one example from recent real results: 🔹 ASML moved from $1,163 to $1,277 in two weeks (≈ +9.8%). I publish these analyses consistently and transparently. 📌 Follow the account here: https://www.tiktok.com/@blackdolphin58

Over-Stage827

I share daily, data-driven analysis of the U.S. stock market after the market close using a proprietary trading system. Below is one example from recent real results: 🔹 ASML moved from $1,163 to $1,277 in two weeks (≈ +9.8%). I publish these analyses consistently and transparently. 📌 Follow the account here: https://www.tiktok.com/@blackdolphin58

TomorrowSavings7579

Yeah, but ASML has one of the biggest moats in the world!  Both great companies!

Ancient_Sort5820

MELI, ASML (highly dependent on US so kinda irrelevant) and RYCEY. They are also 3 of my 4 biggest winners over the past few years

TomorrowSavings7579

Buy $AMD, $GOOGL, or $ASML?!!!

WolfetoneRebel

Both + ASML

Amazing_Bat_1498

They havent though ASML development of EUV litho followed this rough timeline: 1990's - First experiments Early 2000's - Micro-exposure tools late 2000's - ASML's Alpha Demo Tool mid 2010's - First "test" mass production tools Early 2020's - Ready for HVM China is currently on the Micro-exposure tool stage. I am not saying it will take 20 more years as china does have the advantage of copying and relying on ASML data, but still i would not call it promising at this point. We are at least 10 years away from china competing with current low EUV ASML machines and by then i would guess ASML has moved over to hyper NA-EUV machines set to be ready by 2030-2032. Also they have not shown any proof of concept. No one has seen their machine. Everything is hersay from chineese officials at this point. And if we go by what they are telling us, they are still way behind. This is not the type of technology you will be able to copy from simply hiring a couple of former ASML employees. You need the more than 5000 subcontracters and all the other employees at ASML. We are talking about machines weghing 180-200 tones and consisting of more than 100 000 different parts. It took them decades to make cars that are not the laughing stock of the world and still they have not been able to manufacture an airliner that is even close to Boeing or Airbus despite having access to the same subcontractors as Boeing and airbus. In this case they are cut from all the ASML suppliers because of export restrictions and this techonology is way more complex than anything that goes on in any type of airplane.

Amazing_Bat_1498

«Again, everyone thought China/SMIC was 5-10 years behind, but they just released (I think within the last month or two) a EUV prototype with poor yields but solid proof of concept. Pretty sure they hired former ASML engineers and they have been poaching TSMc engineers for a long time.» China is from everything we know about it at this point way more behind than 5-10 years. As matter of fact they have not shown any proof of concept for anyone to see. Everything is hersay at this point. The reports are they have been able to finally develop an EUV lightsource. But there are so many hurdles left at this point that it would not even be worth talking about it if it was not for this being refered to as the chineese manhattan project which they are spending an insane amount of money on. Also they have not been able to produce any yields at all and they hope they can have something that would be able to produce the first chips in 2030. From there, there is a long way ahead to compete with current asml machines that have been optimized for a more than a decade by then since the firs EUV machine in 2018 from real world data. Also different chinese companies have tried to copy DUV machines made by ASML for a decade now and their DUV machines are not even close on yields. This does however seem as a way more coordinated effort. So who knows. At this point i am not worried at all. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/

Bronze_Rager

China just released their EUV prototype with poor yields but proof of a working concept. They hired previous ASML engineers and designers and have made really promising progress.

Amazing_Bat_1498

Yes it is very expensive and obivously no one wants to be enitirely dependent on a monopoly but i would not frame it as them looking to move away from ASML as this would imply they have this as an option they are pursuing which they currently dont. If anyone makes anything that comes even close to ASML i am sure TSMC will be all over it. This goes without saying.

Bronze_Rager

"TSMC dont have any other options besides ASML. They are like 99% dependent on ASML for all the chips they would want to produce and **will produce in the forseeable future** even without any AI." \-We disagree on this point. Again, everyone thought China/SMIC was 5-10 years behind, but they just released a EUV prototype with poor yields but solid proof of concept.