ASML

UnscrupulousObserver

Any love for ASML? As much as I hate it happening, you guys know Xi has his eyes set for Taiwan right? All those current fabs need to be duplicated amid surging AI demand.

BorisAcornKing

up 100% on the year, depending on how you count company equity vesting. I sold prior to big tariff day, because I felt the writing was on the wall when the canada tariffs were announced. I shifted to european defence and printed money, and then shifted to gold and some hard hit big companies (ASML, COF, UNH) and have been more or less happy since. I've been moving more and more to safety, in part because I now own property on the back of some of these gains, and will owe a big tax bill next year. I am more pessimistic about the market as a whole than I was. If trumponomics holds up through the holidays (doubt - I see subprime lenders finally starting to fall, the expected retail underpreformance, more layoffs and AI companies failing to meet a tenth of what they have promised), I'll probably be at 2M after the holidays instead of 1M, in part because of how the US continues to inflate away.

Sane_Wicked

ASML is also developing new technology in the time it takes China to figure it out. Even then, why buy Chinese alternative when so much $$$ is on the line, you go with the proven and established tech.

ReferentiallySeethru

ASML

PSUVB

Purely looking at things through one metric is very silly. Outsized P/E means investors think US companies have potential to grow faster and more. Current values are relative to future predicted cash flows and the past 5-10 years have shown this to be a good bet. Tesla vs BYD is a good example. BYD is totally reliant on the Chinese Gov subsidizing their supply chain (the entire battery supply chain is basically funded by the CCP). As a former investor in China I can tell you first hand what happens when the CCP changes their priorities overnight. Tesla has much larger free cash flows (makes more money on each car even without subsidies), is ahead on AI by a large margin, has better adjacent businesses (huge growth in energy storage). Investors are not dumb they are looking at these tradeoffs and risks and they think Tesla is a better future bet. Your other examples are biased too as almost all of them are suppliers of US tech dev. TSMC and ASML are totally reliant on US tech growth and again you make the same mistake that because someone sells a lot of something that their margins will grow at the same rate as someone like AMD over the next 5 years. It is very expensive to build new Fabs (TSMC) and so as a pure play to capture future cash flows it is a less compelling case than someone like AMD.

Idks98030

I agree with this point. I’m up 134% since April crash. I took a decent amount of profit. And letting it ride. But most of my money is in ETF’s and blue chips. The blue chips played a role In the huge gains: Google, ASML, TSM, Microsoft and Amazon were the worst performers for me - but they are the best companies I own.

Large-Monitor317

China might eventually. I mean, there’s news stories from less than a week ago about trying to reverse engineer an ASML machine. They’re motivated as a national security issue, and willing to ignore some parents. Sure, it’s not going to happen overnight, but I would be surprised if they don’t get there eventually.

Fwellimort

Last time I checked, International has amazing tech firms like BYD Auto, Samsung Electronics, Tencent, Bytedance (TikTok), TSMC, Alibaba, ASML. Also, you cannot tell me Netflix deserves over 45 PE with lowering operating margin forecasts, Tesla with 290 PE continuous losing overall.

JipFozzy

I bought those names when sentiment was at rock bottom AMD at $100 when everyone said it couldn’t compete with NVIDIA in AI, Google when people thought ChatGPT was going to end search, and Palantir when the entire internet said it was overvalued trash. Let’s not forget about MSFT, ASML, and Tencent either sitting on 50%+ gains there too. It’s funny, people love to mock after the fact, but when fear was high, they were the ones too scared to click buy. You can call it “obvious” now, but back then everyone thought those companies were finished. Maybe instead of roasting, you should ask yourself why you didn’t have the balls to buy when it wasn’t easy

Exuberant-Investor

All tech, but that's where the growth is ALAB ANET MU NVDA CRDO ASML TSM

Cute-City-5198

I recently decided to put some of my income into stocks, I started with 5k, placed half of it on a PEA (Im European), and placing it on ETFs, something relatively safe I guess, mostly on Uranium and Chinese ETFs. My question is about the other half, I really dont care about loosing it, Im really new in this and I want to know what would you do with it? Just opened a eToro account and looking for interesting stocks that might explode in the future, been placing some of it on my personnals feelings (ARM, ASML, DVLT, EOSE). What are your opinion about it ? Is looking for high rentability stupid ? and if not wich stock should I consider?

Boss-trade

Let me make this extremely easy for you. NVIDIA IS A 4,3 trillion dollar company. NVTS IS A CRITICAL COMPONENT THAT WHO EVER AQUIRES LEADS THE CHIP RACE, Sooooo AMD and others below would gladly spend 6 billion to acquire as would any company. I would say a minimum 12 billion market cap or $30 a share price. The crazy thing is, they still make a fortune off the sales in a couple of years and protect 4.3 trillion. NVTS Isn’t Just a Supplier—It’s Infrastructure * Their chips **enable the power backbone** of AI data centers. Without efficient power conversion, Nvidia’s H100s and B100s can’t scale. * NVTS’s tech is **already validated by Nvidia**, which means competitors like AMD, Meta, and Google are watching closely. # 📊 Valuation Context * At $30/share, NVTS would be valued around **$6.5 billion**. * Compare that to: * **Arm Holdings**: \~$100B valuation, focused on CPU IP. * **Broadcom**: \~$600B, with a mix of networking and semis. * **ASML**: \~$400B, focused on lithography. * NVTS’s niche is smaller—but **critical**. If it becomes the standard for AI power delivery, its valuation could easily justify $10B–$20B or more. # 🧠 Strategic Leverage * If AMD or Google were to acquire NVTS, they’d not only gain cutting-edge power tech—they’d **disrupt Nvidia’s supply chain**. * That kind of leverage is worth billions in competitive advantage alone. $30 could be a steal—**not because of current revenue**, but because of the **strategic choke point** NVTS represents in the AI arms race.

ChugJug_Inhaler

So companies generating tangible earnings and trading at pretty normal valuations like Google, Amazon, ASML, etc are all bubbled? I don’t think a 30PE is showing much. Sure a couple are, but it isn’t like the dot com crash when anything with .com in it was mooning without justified earnings

Lumpy_Mix6757

I just asked ChatGPT for 5 stocks and it gave me Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, ASML and Visa.

Ok_Carry_6699

You just explained what a foundry does and not why Intel has any edge. I’ll give you the benefit of doubt and say they have the latest EUV tech from ASML. Do you think thats all TSMC does ? And that anyone can just buy the latest EUV unit and start shipping world class chips ? Apple’s M series chips are so far ahead. I switched to m1 in 2020 and they had a fanless chip that has a battery life that lasts all day long. Windows laptops don’t come close to it even in 2025. Have they been scratching their balls all along this time while TSMC was “winning” ? They got complacent because of windows being primarily run on x86/64 arch and now are scrambling. Not saying they cannot get better but this is them trying to survive by spinning out a foundry for 3rd party use to get more revenue. They don’t have an edge. Btw ur username checks out.

Connect_Photo8892

I don't give a f.... who did it or under whose pressure. It was done, and it had a huge impact on the ASML stock performance.

SidonyD

Agreement betweeen Netherland and USA, but in the fact, USA made pressure on Netherland to ban exportation of ASML lithography product. I guess you don't understand EU is just the 51th state of USA...

bjran8888

Are you aware that ASML is a European company, not an American one?

SpotlessCheetah

18A full production is still YEARS away. Their current 18A yields are really bad and they are only able to make some of lowest end processors from what I've been able to gather. The number one primary objective for Intel over the past 4-5 years has been to make 18A happen. We're still not there yet. TSM is still not buying a High NA EUV system from ASML which is concerning to me. But Rapidus in Japan is buying it and they are far away too. So remains to be seen...the investments in Intel are for the fab not the chip designing. AMD is available fill chip design void if we have to for x86.

Able-Shine-1273

ASML is a great company that you won’t lose money on. But you probably won’t make much either.

SidonyD

No they can't, because they can't get lithography engine. Only ASML can offert this technology to allow to make very performing chipset. Today, China use old chipset structure and try to find some low energy ai model ... they are very far from Nvidia/AMD/TSMC technologies

Fun_Bit7398

Good luck researching, designing, developing, funding, building, and maintaining the equipment. For a company such as Nvidia or Intel to make their own EUV lithography machines on the fly, it’s just not feasible. Oh, and don’t forget, don’t step on any registered patents along the 10+ year journey it would take to figure out ASML’s proprietary hardware AND software to run such a system. Good luck. ASML is the only game in town folks. It’s just easier, and faster, for a company to buy the tech from them. I think ASML is safe from competition.

longGERN

Still glad I chose ASML dip over INTC. Way less stress

mayorolivia

Another one of these useless threads. ASML can only produce like 600 machines a year. There are other semiconductor hardware and design/networking companies that make more money and have higher margins. Just because you’re a monopoly doesn’t mean you are a great investment. I wish more redditors went over financial statements. If you’re going to invest in semiconductors, why go with ASML rather than TSM? NVDA? Etc etc.

SnoozleDoppel

ASML AMAT LRCX klac etc are very safe investments with marker beating returns but they won't match NVDA and other AI darlings for reasons discussed here... However these equipment makers and TSM are also not going to drop.. their technology is extremely complex ... And they have deep moat and low competition ... Well Amat and LRCX are competitors but you get the point. As for the market being limited.. it's both true and false. The true is evident .. but as demand for chips go up... You need more and more of those machines... Which requires massive maintenance and upkeep plus you can sell software enhancement and SAAS kind of services. So there is growth as long as AI compute and data center demand is there.. as TSMC and others have to manufacture more and hence need multiples of these machines.

SpotlessCheetah

Everyone has talked about ASML for years. If you want to know a company that's low key powering the AI boom, it's actually Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Siemens and Synopsys. I'm personally looking at Cadence right now. They have "monopolistic moat" practically, and strongholds with TSMC, Nvidia, and ties to Lip Bu-Tan from Intel. They do a lot of IP and EDA validation - every chip gets validated by an EDA system basically. If it's gonna be in an AI Factory, Datacenter, laptop, car, robot etc it will go through validation.

RatRaceUnderdog

I’m taking about the role ASML plays in the chip supply chain. They provide manufacturing equipment meaning they are midstream. They are downstream of all the input materials that are extracted from the ground and all the process that go to create wafers prior to the chip being etched using EUV from ASML. Just like oil and gas, controlling the extraction, refining technology does not mean you control the oil and gas market. That is essentially the analog to chips here But it sounds like you’re talk about the EUV equipment itself which is a different view. Honestly that’s why many economists are talking about these things as supply webs instead of chains. It’s not as neat as earlier manufacturing like steel production. PS: EUV is literally the most complicated machinery in existence. Idk what you mean by the only purchase a few components

RatRaceUnderdog

ASML is solidly a midstream player in the chip supply chain. They are upstream of actually chip design and manufacturing, but downstream of the source materials and equipment suppliers. As it stands the vast majority of the margin from the chip supply chain goes to the chip designers. What you are forgetting is that even though ASML is effectively a monopoly they are also selling to a monopsony. TSMC is effectively the only buyer of scale and therefore pricing is controlled. If for example there were 10 other chip manufacturers at the scale of TSMC competing ASML equipment, we would see their valuation skyrocket as ASML would way more leverage to increase earnings. This is the dynamic that NVDA has and they can command 80% margins on their products

Accidental-Genius

The French are the world’s 2nd leading exporter of weapons, and the Swedes make fighter jets faster than anyone. Also, Leonardo has damn near a monopoly on torpedos, and as we all know Airbus is just a dumpster fire of a company with 55% of global market share in aviation. Spotify is obviously a piece of shit Swedish company going nowhere. Nestle definitely isn’t printing money. Novo Nordisk defiantly doesn’t have the most popular pharmaceutical on earth right now. Bayer-Monsanto is just full of lazy Germans who make nothing of course. LVMH doesn’t have lines outside their stores on every continent. ASML is of course generating multi-billion dollar revenue but no one works in Amsterdam. SAP is utilized by almost every large corporation but I have no idea why since the Germans are so lazy. Roche definitely isn’t a global leader in oncology innovation because the Swiss make nothing. Pull your head out of your ass.

int_2d

this can be said for the suppliers of components and materials to ASML. Most of these suppliers are also the only one in the world that manufacture these components.

PushingSam

DUV is mostly just out of upgrades, EUV (non-HNA) is still making substantial leaps on the modules. It's just that ASML still produces about 3x as many DUV machines compared to EUV, and the mature nodes/memory don't care about EUV as much as high end computing chips do.

jarMburger

Limited customers and they have long term relationships with all of them. The management will not raise price significantly even if they have the pricing power right now. Semi equipment world is highly highly cyclical so burn the customer now means they’ll repay in the next cycle. ASML management is sophisticated enough not to do that and most analysts covering this space knows this as well.

FarrisAT

I would note that 14A TSMC and Intel are majority EUV designs. The entire industry squeezed out more work from DUV in 2021-2024 when ASML ran into a backlog problem for EUV, but now the physical limits of focus are being reached. This means as long as the AI boom continues, ASML will start selling primarily EUV in 2026-2030… and make absolutely insane revenue.

FarrisAT

Furthermore, scaling of lithography machines is limited by the existence of physics. But that doesn’t mean revenue cannot scale. ASML can raise prices indefinitely until demand and supply are matched. The primary reason they don’t is because: 1. Their customers are far more than TSMC. 2. Half their revenue is legacy DUV machine services. 3. Contracts were signed years before the AI boom. But eventually they will raise prices, or existing machines will reach reticle or focus limits… forcing a purchase of EUV or High NA.

FarrisAT

ASML’s margins are over 50%…

FarrisAT

ASML has scaled from 0 EUV machines in 2018 to 40 in 2025. That’s a massive scaling for a lithography machine. Each is roughly $800mn and the size of a Boeing plane.

FarrisAT

Further down the supply chain? ASML is the top of the supply chain.

PushingSam

Yeah, people don't understand the industry at all, the misconceptions about lithography are also astonishing. ASML actually can't scale much due to space or external deliveries, and sometimes a machine gets stuck in a phase. Building a cleanroom and all the necessary facilities to make ASML products is a lot more complex and time intensive. As example *all* parts have to be cleaned to certain cleanroom standards with next to no particles below 5mu, all of them also have to be off-gassed and then measured out in a really specific process. There's only a handful of companies who can perform this off-gassing and measurement procedure.

brett_baty_is_him

ASML ships only dozens of their high end euv machines a year. The machines are extremely complex and like I said there are only a few customers for them. It’s not scalable

FarrisAT

ASML’s growth is also unknown or potentially limitless. They can raise prices infinitely, hence limitless growth. By the same measure, OpenAI’s complete lack of clarity on future growth is a reason to UNDERWEIGHT its projections of future growth. ASML meanwhile has a backlog of signed contracts. Higher certainty of growth deserves higher multiple. Why do you write something so illogical?

FarrisAT

Physics remain physics. The customers need EUV machines unless they found a way to defy reality. The key is that the customers signed contracts years ago, the backlog for ASML is 3+ years.

FarrisAT

So much bullshit written about ASML here. They can scale production. The key is that many of today’s produced machines were signed on contracts years ago before the AI boom. The backlog is 3+ years of machines…

29da65cff1fa

the real moat is TSM.... ASML sells the same machines to intel and samsung yet only TSM knows how to get the most out of them....

microdosingrn

What I find especially interested about ASML is that it's not just that they're the only ones who can make these machines, it's that others have tried and failed spectacularly. Intel, the chinese government, for example. Furthermore, as the only manufacturer of these machines, it's also interesting they rely on components that only certain individual companies can make, Zeiss for their lens as an example.

wtf_is_up

Every redditor on earth knows about ASML and its "EUV monopoly" by now. You are extremely late.

flipaflip

You know… they are also the only ones who service the ASML machines out there and they all are still up and running.

soozler

it's the same sectors. except with much more accurate and immediate.extreme risk in semiconductors because they exist purely based upon China's willingness to allow chip production in Taiwan to continue. China's top goal right now is to destroy the American semiconductor industry over the next few years. every investor needs to keep that in mind when they're pouring money into stocks whose valuation and ability to produce anything is dependent upon the Goodwill of the Chinese government. (TSMC AMD, NVDA) ASML for example, has stockpiles that will only last months before they can no longer produce the machines that create chips. China has tight export controls now on their machines because of the rare earth metals that are used to build them. It's a real risk that has been priced out due to AI. the geopolitics has not changed since January, all of the same things that have been driving these stocks up continue to exist and will continue to exist for a long time. currency debasement is a requirement to pay down the debt, China will be cutting off all rare earth minerals to us, ex-US defense spending is set to at least quadruple over the next decade globally, the administration still has a plan of devaluing the dollar. yes, all of these things were obvious because they were publicly stated. just imagine what the world's going to be like in 10 years and invest that way... and the single most important thing an investor can do who wants to be an active investor is to pay attention to geopolitics right now because geopolitics are what drives this market.

Beneficial-Tax-1776

Apparently ASML DUV machines that China has to make their chips recently broke down. They called the Dutch company for help repairing it. ASML sent some techs. They discovered that the Chinese broke the machine when they disassembled it and tried to put it back together

RepresentativeFan894

ASML does not have a promising future. One day China will be able to do what it does in EVERYTHING.

FieryXJoe

Maintaining the equipment is pretty scalable and they have a ton of pricing power. Companies try and run these machines into the ground so they stay in service forever generating recurring revenue to have ASML maintainence crews on call.

whoa_dude_fangtooth

Really? I’m seeing about 150% Meanwhile, NVDA is up 1,200%. I think it’s safe to say that if you were aware of ASML, you were aware of NVDA. So yeah, I am saying a 150% gain is nada compared to 1200%

reflectedstars

For China, they don’t have to be profitable. The state funding is crazy, they are literally throwing money and their best brains at the problem, and China has a lot of smart people. I’m long ASML but I think China catching up with ASML’s current tech (maybe not High NA) in the next decade is basically a sure thing.

killthenoise

Hi, everyone realizes ASML has a moat. It has to be one of the most talked about stocks when discussing AI. Hope that helps.

marvin_bender

China probably stole the full blueprints for ASML. For the components also. But the issue is that there are so many cutting edge components. It's very hard to build them all. ASML integrates from all the other developed countries and China must replicate all that alone. It will be hard and slow even for then. 8nm is not EUV. They have old DUV lithography machines from ASML and they are using those to make chips.

AnonThrowaway998877

Well if China invades and takes Taiwan that is a black swan and everything goes down. I won't be holding onto ASML or any stocks in that event

Dragon2906

Without ASML no advanced chips, no Nvidia, no Apple, no AI

Consistent_Panda5891

I won't buy ASML puts as they are expensive. Also if it appears in the market I am pretty sure Europe might ban everything from China as well as US and so they won't tank so much. That's why short term no need worry, but wait to when they take over Taiwan in less 12h. Then yes they have the cards and Europe will bend to knees as usual making no sanctions on them

AnonThrowaway998877

There are no tech leaders that China hasn't been spying on, only ones they haven't been caught yet. They have probably been spying on Nvidia for 20 years and yet they still have to resort to smuggling in their cards. The overwhelming odds are that China is nowhere remotely close to even dreaming of catching up to ASML and offering an alternative anyone will buy. But if you're confident they are such a looming threat, you should buy leaps puts on ASML.

dynalisia2

nVidia is selling ultra sharp shovels that dig the fastest and support a shoveling technique that everyone knows how to use well. ASML is making a machine that lets them make that special shovel edge.

AnonThrowaway998877

So many doubters here just makes me like this more. China hasn't even become a threat to Nvidia yet and people think they're going to replicate ASML's tech any day now. Hilarious. China will be lucky to catch up with let alone exceed ASML in the next decade, if ever. The insane supply chain required for ASML alone all but assures that. Even if they managed to tackle that, then there's the also insane physics and precision and world class expertise needed. They are years away from even attempting to match what ASML has now, at best. There are several people who make these China claims in every ASML thread and it is just laughable.

Count-to-3

Aren't the next generation GPUs coming out 2027+ made using 1.2nm machines, which aren't ASML?

KPS-UK77

Those companies sell direct to the public, there's 8 billion of them to potentially sell to. ASML are the foundation level for AI production but their client base will always be AI production companies.

Connect_Photo8892

I had ASML shares. It was great, everything was perfect until the EU decided to ban ASML exports to China. They are even banned from providing support and spare parts to their existing customers in China.

Padrik

fair points everyone. But TSMC tools isn’t the same as replacing ASML’s EUV. They might optimize some processes, but nobody else at least for now can produce EUV optics at that precision. Even Intel and Samsung still depend on ASML for their next-gen nodes. Growth won’t be explosive quarter-to-quarter, sure. But structurally, every chipmaker’s roadmap (3 nm → 2 nm → 1.4 nm) depends on ASML. That’s steady, compounding growth not hype. I still think they should be way higher with respect to what they do. $1500 crazy? I think it’s possible

DexicJ

Institutional investors thought of this like 2 years ago (not just for ASML but the entire semiconductor chain). I know you just saw the Branch Education youtube video but you are too late to the party. Plus there aren't that many customers and they don't need all that many high NA EUV machines currently (they are still stuck perfecting GAA transistor tech).

dami_starfruit

ASML has a slowly eroding moat. China is not the only country working through the 100,000 piece puzzle. TSMC is developing its own photomask pellicles to protect its EUV lithography masks from contamination, which allows the company to continue using its existing EUV equipment instead of purchasing the more expensive ASML high-NA EUV machines for future advanced chip nodes like 1.4nm.

brett_baty_is_him

Because building manufacturing equipment isn’t that scalable. They have a very limited number of customers who make a few purchases a year. Sure they will grow but if you were trying to capitalize on the AI boom continuing, ASML wouldn’t be your best bet

Ancient-Stock-3261

Great, but I would add one thing. ASML’s moat isn’t just tech, it’s *geopolitical leverage*. The Dutch gov and U.S. export controls basically turned it into a strategic asset. Everyone’s hyped on NVDA, but ASML’s the one quietly printing money from *every* chip cycle.

Zef-Daytrade

Na, China dont pull shit double back out backstab moves like Trump does (I can count 5 done by him already, and that isnt all of it). Rare Earths was a bargaining chip at best in reply to the american tech blocking TBH China's main concern is really just to develop lithography tech that dont infringe on ASML methods (USA tech). Everything else is just stop-gaps really.

neverpost4

The only thing that China wants at this point is full unrestricted access to the latest semiconductor manufacturing technologies (ASML, EDA tools). They will also want unrestricted access to the top line computer chips from Qualcomm and NVIDIA but that will be just temporary. For this, China may resume selling REE with no restrictions. Once the US gives up all these, the clock will be ticking. Chinese semiconductor production pipe line will catch up and may no longer need the Western tech anymore. At that point, they will reapply REE choack. So the West better set up the REE production pipeline if their own that can produce enough REE.

CapoDoFrango

TSM is selling the metal of the shoves and NVDA is making them. ASML is selling the machines that cut the metal for the shovels

MyNameIs-Anthony

IBM has the same issue ASML does in that their stuff is used by all the major players but their ability to be a sexy brand capitalizing on trends is limited.

DrB00

ASML are selling the tools to craft the shovels.

Celodurismo

I mean technically ASML is selling the shovels

obeseoprah

Some of the top comments mention Amazon, Google, and Reddit. Amazon is consumer discretionary, while the other two are communications. Aside from pedantic gripes, I think some candidates are: Amphenol, ASML, and Roper. Other top flight names are Constellation Software, Crowdstrike, Broadcom, Verisign.

crashorbit

TSM, ASML, AMZN, AVGO (broadcom) It'll be interesting to watch the run out of the AI bubble. There are lots of announcements of build out that the real economy will not be able to sustain. Especially with the Trump wild card in action.

dweeegs

Nvmnd that’s the one I was thinking about. Idk why I thought it was DUV. The issue is that ASML uses components from companies and countries across the world that have specialized and focused on their specific parts for decades. It’s not just a “there’s a lot of scientists” thing it’s a “there’s legacy knowledge and R&D thing” Even the new process, there are still plenty of issues and unknowns: https://globalsmtasia.com/chinas-euv-breakthrough-huawei-smic-reportedly-advancing-ldp-lithography-eye-3q25-trial-2026-rollout/ TSMC was in volume production for 5 nm 5 years ago and the one you’re referring to is still in lab testing just to start production of the machines to enter chip production There’s still a big gap. It really depends how much AI really needs the cutting edge stuff and how important it ends up being. Deepseek had to go back to using Nvidia’s chips after Huawei’s failed for instance. I am very skeptical of the headlines coming out of China regarding their cutting edge chip industry. SMEE saw significant lithography delays after making big headlines. Huawei did the same. I am forced to take a wait and see approach

Stardust-1

This for example. https://www.techpowerup.com/333801/china-develops-domestic-euv-tool-asml-monopoly-in-trouble I wouldn't call this as efficient as the one ASML is currently selling but in case of a complete blockade, it can get things done. And within several years I wouldn't doubt they will come up with something on par with the SOTA machine given they have basically everything needed : a large population of extremely good engineers and scientists, unlimited support from the government and a domestic consumer base lining up to buy their products.

Stardust-1

And that will affect the German economy much more than the Chinese one. From what I observe, the Chinese industry has largely already insulted itself from foreign imports. The few exceptions include oil and gas, some minerals like iron ore, along with advanced machinery like ASML's lithography machine. They have been working on resolving all of those issues for 10 years. For example, they can now build their own EUV lithography machine domestically this year. Their oil and gas demand has already peaked due to rapid deployment of renewable energy. And they can import iron ore or other agriculture products from Brazil and Indonesia if Australia decides to side with the US. The ship has already sailed, there's no stopping on Chinese dominance. The only scenario I could imagine would be the internal power struggle when Xi dies. And that is irrelevant to what the US is currently trying to do.

ThewayoftheAj

Selling half of my ASML shares , and maybe half of google and intc, if they drop, i probably break even in a crash, if they go higher, i make more profit. Either way, im reducing my portfolio to cash in trading 212 stocks & shares ISA, and FTSE all world

moorhound

Every advanced production chip currently made has some elements from a few companies; Lam Research (etching), Cadence/Synopsys/Seimens (EDA software), ASML (lithography). Nvidia, Samsung, Intel, Broadcom - *none* of these mean shit without the graces of these monopoly companies. It's why the US can tell Samsung (a Korean company) not to sell to China; because part of the process can't be done without Lam etching/EDA, US still gets a say in overall global chip flow, and they use it as an economic weapon. Japan's seen this, and has been making strides in doing their own thing. Alternative manufacturing processes that cut out the US elements means a wide-open China market.

ROSC00

This whole AI spending is like a locust swarm. Investors move from one to another to another- Back end (ASML LAM), chips (NVDA), > AVGO AMD> Ai Software, Quantum, Data center etc. novice investors get sucked chasing the trade via FOMA. The real question, why did ORACLE go so fast in a record breaking surge? NEWS. Anyhow.

RichAd6309

ASML beat earnings but no movement? nice

automaticmongersciss

The AI chip bubble will burst much earlier than anticipated, driven by China’s rapid semiconductor independence and innovation. Alibaba recently slashed its Nvidia GPU usage by 82% through its own AI system that leverages proprietary chip pooling technology, achieving faster and more efficient AI performance. Huawei is advancing its own AI chips, including the powerful Ascend series, which are challenging Nvidia’s dominance by delivering comparable computational capabilities at scale. China’s semiconductor industry further strengthens with breakthroughs like domestically developed lithography machines, pushing chip production independence. At the same time, Applied Materials, a key U.S. chip equipment supplier, faces lawsuits for alleged tech theft in China, highlighting the competitive intensity and efforts to accelerate Chinese tech progress. The interconnected old AI trade ecosystem—where Nvidia supplies chips to OpenAI, which in turn invests back in Nvidia, and with Oracle, AMD, Microsoft, Dell, Intel, ASML, TSMC, and Broadcom also deeply intertwined—faces disruption as China cuts reliance on Nvidia chips due to trade restrictions and homegrown alternatives. Even these hyperscalers and major technology providers are not immune from the coming shakeup, as the disruption to chip supply chains and innovations outside U.S. control intensify. The IMF and other analysts already warn this AI investment bubble resembles the dot-com bubble and could burst soon. China’s transition to domestic AI chips adoption is accelerating but remains partial; major Chinese tech firms like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu are increasingly testing and integrating home-grown AI chips, yet Nvidia chips still lead in raw performance and development ecosystem support. Forecasts suggest Chinese chips could capture over half the local market by 2027, up from under 20% in 2023, with supply and performance expected to improve further. Still, for now, domestic AI chips remain largely confined to state-backed projects and government-linked data centers, with global adoption beyond China being an emerging but slower process. With all these shifts, the critical question to ask is: How long before AI companies and innovation centers worldwide start adopting Chinese AI chip technology as a mainstream component of their systems, fundamentally reshaping the global AI technology landscape?

Capable_Wait09

I didn’t say there is an alternative right now. I said they don’t have the most leverage. If you were right about the strength of their position, then why aren’t they growing faster by raising their margins? Like if you were right then we’d already see it in earnings and guidance. But we don’t. You’re not arguing against me. You’re arguing against reality, against numbers that are literally reported by ASML. Take it up with their ceo, not Reddit b

Old_Sausages_455

25% Nvidia 20% Broadcom 11% Siemens 11% Taiwan Semi 6% App 6% ASML 5% NOVA 5% GLD 5% VWAV 5% Soundhound

ShittyPianist

Imo, two things. 1. Earnings data looks fine. ASML and TSMC both exceeded expectations. If the people making the core components for NVDA and AMD look good, the market for NVDA and AMD chips presumably also looks good. 2. There's an old story about how when your shoeshine boy starts discussing buying stocks, we've hit the high. The same applies in reverse.

Dragon2906

Just a couple of parts of ASML machines come from American firms.

RockCultural4075

First of all, China is projected to have GDP growth of 4.8% according to the IMF. China has also hit a historic high in exports despite US tariffs and US makes up less than 2% of GDP. So its quite ignorant to think US is of any importance. >but support tariffs on china as they use our money to build their army Most of the money China earns from exports to the U.S. is reinvested in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, primarily U.S. Treasury bonds. Trump also has no cards left. Trump has already banned EVs, Huawei, ASML, GPUs, and everything. What are they going to do? Ban China from buying our oil xD? Oh yea dont forget the Soybeans and beef

blockchainkitty

China’s cooking up its own EUV beast and it’s not just talk. 🔥 SIOM’s blasting tin plasma, SMEE’s piecing the scanner together, and Huawei’s SiCarrier is throwing cash at a “Mount Everest” project to rival ASML. With state money, AI design, and 300+ labs locked in, a homegrown EUV prototype by 2026 is on the table. If they pull it off, that’s game-changing for the chip war full send on silicon supremacy. 🇨🇳⚙️💥

slimkay

It’s a monopoly but subject to export restrictions. It doesn’t entirely control its fate. Also, it’s a slow moving goods company. Demand for its product is more volatile/cyclical than their customers’. ASML is a tricky case and a misunderstood name. Nobody in the financial markets thinks it should garner the same kind of multiples AMD, NVDA are trading at.

Dragon2906

ASML has effectively a monopoly, so a stronger relative position than TSMC

slimkay

This is very simplistic way to look at this. Boeing is propped up by its status as a military contractor. ASML won’t ever be valued like TSMC or NVDA as it’s effectively a capital goods company. Longer lead time, concentrated customer base and more inherently cyclical. ASML should be comped against AMAT, LRCX, not TSMC

valuevestor1

You really don't know how semiconductor manufacturing works. The biggest game in semiconductor manufacturing is yield. What portion of your total manufactured capacity is usable. By keeping the ASML EUV machines out of China's hand, the western world is forcing China to get maximum performance out of DUV. Unfortunately that has consequences. The yield is very low and they can't profitably produce things like Huawei GPU to make money. But if you change the argument from profit to National security, this whole thing changes. China has the largest concentration of AI developers right now. Instead of using them on the best of the breed (NVDA GPUs) they are trying to build a national ecosystem based on the domestic supply chain. They are hoping eventually they'll be able to either invent EUV/Next technology or get true scaling out of DUV. Whether they can actually do that, only time will tell. But that's what they're aiming for.

BurgerFoundation

This has been one my single best years investing. Bought crypto as soon as trump was about to be elected, strait moonshot. Bought on April lows and sitting +80% YTD. Just keep waiting on the AI bubble to pop cause the big players keep raking in money. Sure it might slow down but earnings of ASML and TSM are not suggesting that. If large companies invest 18 trillion dollars in the US our GDP will go up. I think you got it all backwards

Dragon2906

Even that is not true, look at Boeing and Airbus for example, or ASML

FarrisAT

Demand in China is declining because ASML is quite literally banned by the USA from exports.

FarrisAT

The closest competitor to ASML is a 130nm dry lithography machine in China. Then the experimental 65nm from SMEE, which hasn’t even been officially announced. None of those can produce 28nm class nodes, let alone 7nm of 5nm. The gap is literally 17 years and counting. ASML produced the first immersion machine in 2008.

FarrisAT

ASML signed many contracts 2-3 years ago. Before the AI boom even began.

FarrisAT

There is literally no alternative to ASML. There are alternatives to TSMC and Nvidia. They are Samsung, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, and Global Foundries.