ASML

Aggressive_Pen_6540

And then ASML earnings report next week…. Tech will be reaching an all time highs before it plateaus the rest of July into early August….

corndog_messiah

QNT, ASML, BESI, AIR, AIXA, SIEGY, SMHN, RYCEY. Note some of these are only available on European exchanges

Maximum-Side-9391

Got tired of real investors complaining they weren't listed in the US simple as that. See ASML TSM ASE etc your trying to make something out of nothing

OcularOracle

I take it you don't fuck with TSMC or ASML then?

yamatofuji

Good point on NXP vs ASML. NXP gets hammered by the macro economy and auto slumps instantly, while ASML has that multi-year backlog cushion. Look, if Europe's economy stays in the gutter, is NXP dead money for the next two years or a good value buy right now?

Sweaty-March8080

so much of their profit is from orders placed years ago, the real impact we will see in 2027-2028 probably china was stockpiling DUV machines like crazy before sanctions got tighter, that inflated the numbers in short term. but now they cant sell the most advanced stuff to like half of world and the other half is building their own fabs slower than expected NXP is different story, they got hit more direct because auto and industrial chips demand dropped when europe economy went to shit but ASML basically prints money no matter what happens, when you have monopoly on the machines that make chips everyone needs you eventually

drew-gen-x

In fairness the whole world economy & markets have pumped up by money printing. But that's why when I am asked if I am concerned that $VXUS is being propped up by Samsung, ASML, TSM, and SK; I say yes. But those stocks make up less than 10% of the market cap of $VXUS vs $VTI being at 37% tech/Mag 7 stocks. Everything will get hit if this bubble pops. But I don't think people are looking at what is in what they own and are buying. This is what people are missing about today vs dot com. It wasn't the shit tech stocks that crashed the market. It was that everyone owned the same 6-10 stocks and they made up over 35% of the $SPY. If everyone owns the same damn stocks and they all start to fall then who is gonna buy when everyone is selling the same 6-10 stocks when they sell their index funds???

betboooooy

Nebius, Iren, Sk Hynix, San Disk, ASML all green wtf

Les7X

Took some profits on ASML shares this (EU) morning, took a nice big L on bmw, some pennies on quantum before they dropped too much and closed space at even. Rest is blood red, don't worry

Berry-Reasonable

I disagree, many global markets have outperformed the US over the last two years. While the Ai trade is strong in the US, it remains to be seen if the market will broaden beyond a few leading stocks. In Latin America I like MELI, in Europe try Bank of Santander, or ASML, in Canada try the banks— strongest bank oligopoly I know. In Italy, Leonardo for defence exposure. There’s also Enbridge in Canada, Cambridge is also responsible for moving 20% of the US natural gas. And you might want to pay attention to defence stocks among non US NATO countries— lots of coordination and growth.

alright-Charlotte716

Hiring chip designers is easy. Now do the ASML lithography machines.

elgrandorado

I sold ASML & GOOG and bought software post Q1. Smarter ways to invest then to try and time the market shorting. I hate this idiotic way of thinking. Even Michael Burry suffered massively trying to time what he thought was a clear housing bubble in 2007.

drew-gen-x

I'm 80% World ex US if you add in Gold. $VXUS is my largest position and I am well aware that most of the gains this year have come from ASML, TSM, Samsung & SK. But at the end of the day $VXUS has 21% tech market cap weight vs $VTI 36.95% tech market cap weight. I find it hilarious that people are fleeing to the Mag 7 cap ex spenders or $VTI as a flight to safety. It might work. But you are less diversified and have a much higher tech market cap concentration than the foreign markets you are claiming have hit their tech peak. Any way Cheers & good luck.

QuadzillaStrider

> and you don’t think some new memory competition can pop up in 1-2 years? It would take them that long to build a fab. And that's only if they can convince ASML to sell them the required machines to actually print the fucking chips. And if they have a spare $25b or so laying around to bring it all together.

jarkon-anderslammer

I just sold ASML, so you are all welcome.

ChainOfThot

only european company worth investing in is ASML

Spac55

Soon big banks and BigTech give strong earnings Looking great Q2 earnings by many big banks $C $JPM $WFC $BAC $GS $MS space all in $XLF. All big tech in $QQQ $SPX $NDX will give strong earnings, followed by big buybacks. Whole semiconductor sector $SMH $AMAT $ASML & many got a big boost from earnings spike

Aggressive_Pen_6540

ASML and TSMC Earnings Report next week btw

Street-Corporation

I’m thinking puts until ASML and TSMC earnings next week and then back to regularly scheduled programming.

Etherius

I would be very concerned if I held MU Their continued success is contingent not only on the AI boom being a real revolution (as opposed to a flash in the pan) but that their near monopoly on HBWM is as durable as ASML’s hold on semiconductor lithography. Only one of those is predictable in any sort of way

Straight-Ad6926

Hiring chip designers is easy. Now do the ASML lithography machines.

Excellent-Pay-4477

**The companies selling the picks and shovels:** Micron, SanDisk, Lam Research, Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA, ASML, and many others.

drew-gen-x

I buy & hold $VXUS, $EWY, $EWJ, and I trade $DRAM for my AI/Semis positions. My thesis is different from many others here I am sure. I think we are seeing the beginning of a long term cycle of cash move from West to East. The AI cap ex spenders (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and META) have stopped all their stock buybacks and are now spending all of their 2026 FCF, diluting shareholders, and adding debt and sending the majority of that cash to Pacific Asia. (SK Hynix, Samsung, ASML, TSM, Kioxia and Softbank). I want to own the indices that are receiving this cash and reinvesting that cash back into their local economies (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) This has more volatility than $VTI, $QQQ, or even $SOXX as I also face USD currency fluctuations. But I am looking at the long term big picture as we enter a new market cycle. I own $DE for the USA data center build out since it is trading at a much cheaper valuation than $CAT. Good Luck

Clean-Yam-739

Same situation. I trim ASML when it represents more than 10% of my portfolio.

OptionsHuduga

is anyone here gonna play ASML and TSM earnings next week? Sorry, I should ask - can anyone here afford ASML calls / puts to play?

elgrandorado

Yep. I sold my multi year earnings on GOOG and ASML and went deep into software. Figured doing a near triple bagger on ASML and getting a strong 18 month performance on GOOG were enough considering the AI related runup.

throwaway2676

Of everything you listed there, only ASML is actually a major player, and they have no shortage of investment capital

Reasonable_Egg650

Cope to think Europe plays an important role in training even. Once ASML tech can be ripped off by China and Eli Lily overtakes Novo…what will they have left.

CH-LOL

Rolls Royce  ASML Coca cola 

Rare_Steak_

Top 3 in terms of % of my port at their current valuations looks something like this: 1. 43% ASML 2. 29% NBIS ... 3. A whole bunch of smaller positions including GOOGL, NVDA, KEEL, a real estate fund and some biotechs.

askinr

Applied Materials ASML Nvidia

TreGet234

Next week will have no interesting earnings (unless you're big in pepsi) but the week after that starts with banks and ASML. Then the week after i think it's already mag 7 time. Naturally, we will pump into the final blow off top of this cycle. Can't wait to dca into cash.

No_Current3675

CEG UUUU KLAC TSM LRCX ASML GLW MU SNDK DRAM and a little APLD have been my recent purchases. I swing trade pretty aggressively and don't mind 50% drawdowns, so check yoself and proceed wit caution.

TreGet234

ASML earnimgs in 2 weeks will have bears in disbelief as always.

No_Current3675

ASML TSM KLAC would probably be at the top of my list. 2nd tier NVDA LRCX GOOG AMZN MSFT. That said, I am an avid dip buyer and if any particular stock dropped 50-75% there's a good chance I'm picking it up, even garbage memestonks.

old_Spivey

Sure bets: MSFT AVGO ASML NVDA TSM

TopEast7122

I rather hold ASML

Prestigious_Ad2420

You forgot ASML

Sentinaapp

Solid breakdown. One thing worth adding to the chain logic: this kind of "demand cascades down the supply chain" reasoning is exactly why semiconductor equipment names tend to lag the AI leaders by a few quarters rather than moving in lockstep. Capex commitments from fabs take time to translate into actual equipment orders. Worth watching ASML's order backlog and lead times alongside AMAT. If both are climbing together it confirms the structural read rather than just riding the AI hype cycle. The "picks and shovels" thesis only holds if backlog data backs it up, not just stock price momentum.

PERSONA916

I have to imagine a not insignificant amount of these sales are already priced in via order books... I don't think you can just walk into ASML and order a bunch of Lithograph machines for delivery in 2 weeks

Port_Lens

I think the interesting question isn't whether NVDA or AMAT is the better business—it's how much exposure you actually want at each layer of the AI stack. You could make a reasonable case for owning: Infrastructure (NVDA, AMD), Equipment (AMAT, ASML, LRCX), Foundries (TSMC), Hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL), Software/app layer. That way you're not making a single bet on where the economic profits ultimately end up. History shows that sometimes the biggest winners aren't the companies everyone talks about today. The harder part is deciding the allocation between those buckets rather than picking one "winner."

ThanklessWaterHeater

I’d say don’t invest where the money is flowing from; invest where the money is flowing to. Silicon fabs are in the midst of a massive buildout of new capacity all around the world. The new facilities will need eye watering amounts of new lithography, packaging, testing and quality control equipment. The beneficiaries over the next few years will be the makers of that equipment: AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ASML, etc.

Inevitable_Zebra_0

That's the thing for most people, they only hear about hot stocks when they've already become hot and everybody starts talking about them, and they start wanting a piece of the pie too (FOMO). Which usually don't go well for them, because they start entering when the stock has already been hyped up too much, and long-term holders start taking profits. LRCX, alongside AMAT, ASML and several others had always been a huge value with big potential, wide moat to the point of being a monopoly and well run businesses overall, but you had to be a geek/connected to the semi industry to know these names before the AI cycle made them know to the average retail investor.

Muted-Pace-5706

the structural vs cyclical question is exactly the right one to ask before sizing options here. if you believe the WFE cycle is now 5+ years, short-dated calls on AMAT or KLAC are the wrong vehicle - you want LEAPS so theta isnt eating you alive while the thesis plays out. the other thing worth watching is that ASML IV tends to spike on any export restriction headline, which creates periodic windows to buy longer-dated calls at a discount before the next leg.

OptionsHuduga

I sold AMAT and ASML this morning like a fn cuckmaxxer. AMA

WhoCares450

I mean there are ton, but here are some samples: \- Up 90% on ASML. \- Bought AXP last week, up 5.5%, but I expect this to grow. \- GLW, the same as above, but up 13%, expect that to grow for next 2-3 years, similar to AXP. I'm currently digging into AI supply chain, hence above. While everyone jumped on Sandisk, etc band wagon, which is good, that is already passed, I'm looking into what's next.

Anonn39

Me personally I do read the earnings report but I don't read every info, just focus on the info that I use to value the company. For the semi stocks I hold like BESI and ASML I look for their reported EPS, their revenue, their profit margins, their statements on order backlogs etc, and calculate the growth rate of the company quarter over quarter and YoY (usually the brokers already did this for me). And then I look for their guidance and statement on the general market. Then I calculate the PEG to see if the stock is expensive or cheap, and look at the rate of changes. Most of the time the conclusion for the position is that I just need to keep holding the stock. Not sure if this is an optimal "strategy" but I try to do what I know best.

Clackamas_river

ASML is going to be happy.

Prize_Bar_5767

$ASML to capture some of it.

Primary_Olive_5444

ASML -> Region (ship to location) should see higher south korea. https://preview.redd.it/ckurmb5kp4ah1.png?width=1898&format=png&auto=webp&s=eeb4070c7570c7cfe4f510d562f10564bb51f0f8

throw_keeb

You should probably order up some machines from ASML and get on competing. I'm sure you can get delivery by 2030 or so?

GloomyMembership4197

Green week ahead, because June 4 incoming. War contained. SK + Samsung 61B investment alleviates HBM4 bottleneck. With no limits on HBM4, AI gear suppliers now can increase production to meet demand. ASML pop cuz more lithography devices needed. NVIDIA, AMD pop, cuz more RAM available. Google pop, cuz more RAM available. Etc.

old_Spivey

My humble opinion, everyone should be buying GOOGL, NVDA, AVGO, and ASML as much as possible right now.

Prize_Bar_5767

Long $ASML?

aperartnft

ASML is a tough one to argue against over the long run. It's one of the few true bottlenecks in the entire semiconductor industry. On Broadcom vs AMD, I mostly agree with your reasoning. AMD probably has the higher upside if it keeps taking AI share but Broadcom feels like the more diversified AI infrastructure play and after the recent pullback the expectations are a bit more grounded.

Potential_Web_4092

There's a racist premium on it like other European founded stocks till they earned too much. Same with spotify, ASML, Jumia, flutter, Fartec, Lilium, Couchbase, MariaDB, etc If they were founded in America they would be closer to intrinsic value. Likely more.

fake212121

ASML. Im adding into it if i see a red day, minimum 100-300$ i will add. Within 6-7 months I got like close to 5 shares and almost 30% up. AMD is way went up and others like mrvl qualcomm intel. I would pick broadcom if i hat to chose amd cs avgo vs mrvl

PM_ME_UR_DRAG_CURVE

> ASML videos That's just `Asianometry` 🦌

sigmakry

The $31 EPS guide is impressive on the surface, but you're right to be cautious — the bar just got raised significantly higher for the entire semi sector. When Micron beats by that margin, the market immediately reprices expectations for ASML, TSMC, and the rest of the chain upward. That's the trap. The real risk in July isn't a miss — it's a "good but not good enough" earnings season. If TSMC guides in line but doesn't raise, that gets sold. If ASML shows any EUV order softness, the whole equipment space cracks. From a positioning standpoint, the smarter play might be to fade the semi euphoria heading into earnings and look for re-entry post-report. The Chandelier Exit levels on MU and AMAT are worth watching closely — if either breaks below their 22-day trailing stops on high volume, that's a clean signal to step aside regardless of the fundamental narrative. July earnings are always a volatility event. The question is whether you're trading the number or the reaction to the number.

EYtNSQC9s8oRhe6ejr

I think ASMR is just what they call ASML in Japan

TreGet234

I read that as ASML videos, my brain is fully rotted with tech stocks.

GlorifiedPlumber

You seem to be describing fab tools, like ASML, AMAT, LAM, etc. that go into the fabs. I literally design the FABS, the buildings, the cleanrooms, their utilities, clean gases, UPW, waste water treatments, etc. They're 3 to 4 year cradle to grave projects (from I want a fab! to blowdown), not inclusive of years and years of tool installation ramp. 100% of the projects we have right now are being done so that people can sell the AI machine hardware (think selling shovels to the gold miners, the ONLY people making money), and if that outlet didn't exist, they'd be canceled or transitioned to something we call a "warm shell" or "cold shell." "Cold shell" is kind of the new norm. At least with a warm shell, we usually finish our design, but for a cold shell.. a lot of shit stops to just do concrete and this is a huge risk. Honestly, cold shelling is a risk IMO. I have yet to see one started up years later without MASSIVE retrofitting. Now, they like a lot of pre-cast, which... wah wah, won't retrofit like they want (put holes for duct and pipe where you need em). So if the cold shell used a lot of pre-cast (which is kind of the sexy thing to do) then, I don't think those will retrofit the way the clients think they will. This is going to be a billion dollar problem one day, but at least, in the future. I digress, Fabs I helped design YEARS ago (let's say 2019-2022) era, are just now having some of their second large mods being "turned on" (as putting tools in the warm shell or starting up the cold shell) and it's 4-7 years later (thankfully these did not use Pre-cast concrete in key areas). As well, AI has been gong show for 2 ish years, and those companies are just NOW using that cleanroom space, and it doesn't turn on in an instant. So are they going to make it? Who knows. So my point, is that AI is triggering a huge amount of cleanroom square footage buildout; if that demand goes away, there is going to be SO MUCH "available" cleanroom space that I worry I won't ever have a job again. Demand will crater, which means the business unit where I work, which does just fabs, won't be able to survive, and that expertise will go away to do other work.

Own-Recipe5908

[GlobalFoundries CTO on Why the Company Abandoned the “Bleeding Edge” - IEEE Spectrum](https://spectrum.ieee.org/globalfoundries-cto-on-why-the-company-abandoned-the-bleeding-edge) >***IEEE Spectrum*****:** What are you going to do with the two EUV machines you installed? >**Gary Patton:** We’ll be working with [ASML](https://spectrum.ieee.org/tag/asml) to figure out the best use of them. A likely or possible outcome is that we end up selling those tools. The China headline doesn't seem well sourced, just accusations about ASML routing one to China through GFS that ASML denies. [Micron is the last memory maker to join the EUV party — company aims for EUV DRAM mass production in 2025 | Tom's Hardware](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-pushes-dram-tech-with-euv-lithography-aims-for-mass-production-in-2025) >Micron has finally added advanced EUV lithography to its DRAM production nodes as its newest process node enters pilot production. Unlike its competitors, Micron was in no hurry to use EUV lithography to make DRAM, so it is the last in the industry to adopt the most advanced technology available. This year, Micron began pilot production of DRAM memory on its 1γ (1-gamma) fabrication process, which will [enter high volume manufacturing (HVM) next year](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/micron-delays-euv-ram-to-2025-lays-off-10-of-workforce).  >Today, Micron's memory chip production uses process technologies that rely exclusively on DUV lithography. Basically DUV is sufficient for current memory tech.

c00750ny3h

To get a micron sized memory chip plant, you are probably looking at 150B dollars worth of initial investment. Even if they had that cash, you have to get square miles of land and ensure nearby residents aren't upset about the dangerous chemicals going in and out. There is also tools. I'd guess micron has at least 200 ASML lithography machines scattered throughout all their factories around the world. An older Gen 193nm ArF lithography machine isn't something they haul out of their warehouse on a forklift. One lithography machine is like building a house and ASML at best could probably make one or two a month. Same with etch deposition Chambers. I'd guess micron has at least 5000 etch deposition chambers, and companies like Lam Research or Tokyo Electron could only make 50 or 100 of those a month. All in all, even with infinite cash, getting a micron sized memory fab, considering logistics, supply and tooling concerns, the earliest I can see them up and running is 7 or 8 years down the road. And who knows if by then the memory demand cycle ends and they are left with a huge money pit.

ez399017

MU, NVDA, NBIS, ASML but mostly MU

AdIndividual3272

That's a short term outlook. ASML has better valuation by a large amount.

AdIndividual3272

ASML has very few real competitors. ASML better forward P/E safer long term. Micron serves a diffrent customer base and is not even close in value. ASML is miles ahead of Micron. You'd be better off comparing Nvidia or TSM to ASML.

drew-gen-x

Keep BTD in the Bag 7 stocks, Retail. I would hate to see the Bag 7 stocks run out of cash to spend on SK Hynix, Samsung, ASML, and TSM. My port thanks you all for your sacrifice : )

Consistent_Panda5891

Energy is bottleneck. Puts it is in anything related to USA. Did you not see 2 days ago Smci photo looking for "alternative energy sources"? Lmao. They dilute to raise 20B as banks did not want to issue more bonds. Is just matter of few weeks as you say Chinese has it's AI models replacing others, and not only that but also DRAM and not more than 2-3year they manage to start building chip hardware with ASML copies they got with stolen tech

-sakuranbo

ADRs mostly trade OTC, and when they do get listed on exchanges, they're even more dead than pre-market trading. ASML ADRs trade on NASDAQ and the volume is extremely thin, even though I'd expect them to be one of the popular companies to trade during the bull market on semi stocks.

Wide-Contribution-29

Please panic sell ASML. I would love to be able to afford a LEAP at a discount

camillabbb

AI spending first flows into memory, then into foundry and lithography equipment. That's exactly why Micron is printing monster profits befor TSMC and ASML see their full uptick in earnings power.

Equivalent-Farmer576

Yeah right, ASML was not a flourishing company before AI, time to go to sleep. Plus you are going totally west on my point with cell manufacturers, I indeed said they are benefiting from EVs which however is not the case for EVs manufacturer. Don’t know how to say it anymore, let the future talk. Before each bubble we had people convinced it wasn’t one. Yeah that’s easy to say “but the dotcom bubble was predictable with those fake/low revenues” yet at that time all people did was investing in those companies with no future whatsoever and pointing the revenues of the big runners (Amazon, Microsoft, Google…). Good night, and good investing :)

Ohhmama11

So you’re saying nvda was flourishing before AI? ASML, AMD ect? SMCI was what 5 billion to 21 billion because of AI Imagine thinking a company’s 1991 founding date dictates its 2026 revenue drivers. Nvidia isn't selling gaming GPUs to teenagers anymore, they are selling AI infrastructure to the entire planet. They didn't just benefit from the boom they literally built the engine for it and not to mention your EV analogy actually proves my point lmao. If the EV boom happens, and battery cell manufacturers see their revenues shoot up 400%, then yes those cell manufacturers are absolutely flourishing because EVs. You’re trying to argue the shovels aren't part of AI but AI futures for hyper scalers and Chatgtp doesn’t exist without them

GloomyMembership4197

They lie about RAM bottleneck. Just buy ASML mashines ant print those rams like there is no tomorrow.

PriorScreen7613

Step 1. Get a machine from ASML. GL

AgitatedJump8459

For everyone into ASML, check ASMI and BESI. Dutch semi conductor companies with much more room to grow

JPL_WSB_BRRRRR

Here with €7k. Shame I did not have more spare cash or positions for sale to get more. Might trim some more ASML today to double it 😃 https://preview.redd.it/b8es6sbikd9h1.png?width=615&format=png&auto=webp&s=1384686709778d7adeb04d0120e3ab8e62886769

Forgetwhatitoldyou

Micron, SK, and Samsung own all the patents.  It takes tens of billions to build a single fab, and a decade or two to actually be able to get decent yields from it.  There's a long line for EUV machines from ASML.  Demand is going to probably at *least* triple - probably more - by 2030, while supply will only double.  And supply is already much short of current demand.   YMTC and CXMT have been working on this for about 15 years, and are only now getting decent yields, on chips 2-3 generations behind.  They can't get EUV machines, so their yields and cost margins are crap on more advanced stuff.  

Chuu

Lithiography. China is working on their own EUV lithography machines but are years behind. ASML is still really the only game in town.

NerdSlamPo

I really like ASML as a handcuff to MU, since MU will likely depend on them for production. Bought in after the jump today so time will tell if it’s a winning play.

chauhan_shubham

GOOG has been going downhill , ASML is a shining star.

Muted_Wasabi_1284

Buying leveraged ASML to offset Goog calls Jesus wtf

-twind

ASML is European

LilRobloz

Not market collapse, but tech hardware selloff, the money keeps flowing from the fear of hyperscalers, you only need one of them to cut a few billions from the capex and the whole sector will have a chain reaction. For now they keep spending, money goes to data centers that need gpus that need memory, the racks need networking and so on. All of that so you can have data centers ready for the frontier ai labs that want to train and run their model which makes negative money. Yes the whole "but they have revenue unlike in the dot com" is true, but the foundation of why the money keep flowing is rotten. Ai does not generate that kind of value that requires this amount of spending. I had MU, CRDO, ASML and other smaller positions that benefit from the whole AI boom and i still have some left, but from a boom it is turning into a bubble really fast.

Consistent_Panda5891

So investment in yen? 😂. Thing is about to burst hard within next 2 years. Either Chinese competition makes US investments a money lost stuff(they are also more close than ever to be able to compete with ASML hardware). Time to short SOX semiconductor ETF is approaching. But I let short for others, puts is the play as Leopold did wisely weeks ago(and cashed out obv as top is not in)

Ok-Nose29

No major AI earnings until ASML 2 weeks from now means lots of room for speculative pump baby

StrategyEven3974

the only thing that could devalue ASML is if someone invents something better than EUV and is scaleable in the next 10 years. So, basically impossible.

Forsaken_Area_6690

USA should have no say on who ASML sells to.

OverwroughtPraise

They're also buying more EUV machines from ASML. Summoning a machine god out of sand is a capital-intensive endeavor.

Soffatjockis

Calls on ASML They have the mother of all shovels

hughter

They've got ASML which is the backbone of modern chips and are working on several fabs.

bihari_baller

They still have ASML.

crankthehandle

Only the EU is watching from the sideline. Or the assume that having ASML headquartered in the Netherlands is enough.

Primary_Olive_5444

They got Rapidus (their own version of TSMC, but don’t expect volume) So ASML EUV machine ftw

That-Requirement-233

ASML has been priced in for weeks lol

Used-Air-2688

This looks more like a **valuation reset** than a fundamental collapse. A few things are happening at once: * Investors are questioning whether AI-related companies can generate enough profits to justify their massive valuations. * Concerns about higher interest rates hurt growth stocks the most because much of their value comes from future earnings. * After huge runs in Nvidia, Micron, ASML, Samsung, and other AI beneficiaries, many investors are taking profits. What's notable is that the selling isn't isolated to one company. It's hitting the entire AI supply chain—from chip designers to memory manufacturers to equipment makers. That said, one bad day doesn't necessarily signal the end of the AI bull market. The key thing to watch is whether: 1. Earnings continue growing rapidly. 2. Companies maintain AI spending. 3. Investors keep rewarding that growth with premium valuations. If earnings remain strong but multiples keep compressing, the market may be entering a phase where "great company" no longer automatically means "great stock." For long-term investors, this could simply be a healthy correction. For heavily concentrated AI portfolios, it's a reminder that owning multiple semiconductor stocks isn't the same as being diversified.

Primary_Olive_5444

Offshore loan -> means USD. Means HBM and CPU + (GPU or XPU) + Network Switch + Optics and Finally + Nuclear Power HBM and CPU + (GPU or XPU) => means ASML and others

Ohlele

all are super risky, except for ASML.

Cav829

Yeah, Intel bought the vast majority of ASML's first delivery of EUV machines. I get the "hype" about Intel. It's a great turn-around story. Their desire is to try to become the next TSMC is laudable. The business world still sees TSMC as one of the biggest risks the global market because of the obvious geopolitical risks. If not for that, it might be trading as a higher market cap than even Microsoft and Amazon. The problem is the market got waaaaaay ahead of itself. Like the chip deal they got with Apple is for older processors since "the big boys" in the space are way too backed up. They fell behind AMD and got priced like they were going out of business, then got priced back in as the now 21st biggest company on the planet on the mere notion they could in what... 5-10 years start competing with TSMC? This is as a time AMD's market cap nearly tripled when they weren't even fully proven in the AI space because of the mere idea agentic AI might cause their profits to skyrocket. People were way ahead of calling the bubble back in the Fall. There was still something of a logic behind even some of the pricier companies. Now we're actually seeing it with valuations front-running companies by many years. Yeah, so funny about a lot of what you next wrote as I know I got some nasty glares for bringing this up in another thread, but people love throwing around the Dot Com comparisons while forgetting one of the most important lessons of the Dot Com era: don't get caught up in a CapEx explosion. We made the exact same mistake back then: the "picks and shovels' analogy got thrown around, everyone went all-in on the semis, and people spent the next 2 decades waiting to get their money back from the Qualcomms, Ciscos, and MUs of the world. Meanwhile, the long-term winners were... software and e-commerce. But it's going to be a mess getting there, and the ugly reality a lot of people are increasingly coming to the realization is that AI might be heavily commoditized. If the individual models lack moats and pricing power, it doesn't mean the tech is dead: it just means everything was priced wrong from the start and the "repricing" will be an ugly affair. Mind you, I think Street insiders are probably happy with the setup as enough investors are still around from the Dot Com era to recognize how this is likely to play out: milk every last dime you can from the CapEx spend as free money, dump everything once it looks like the bubble is ready to burst, and flee to the sectors likely to profit the most once we actually figure out the business use of AI. Plus adding on to what you said, I think the big players want to spend the money now because they know we're coming to the end of the 100-year debt cycle in the next couple years. If you're going to spend this kind of crazy money, now is the last chance to do it before you have to start tightening the purse strings. BTW super fun conversation. One of the best ones I've had on here recently. I do really enjoy trying to reason this stuff out rather than just throwing up your hands and saying the market makes no sense.