ASML

StoneCrusaderRequiem

Bro, I fucking bought a “dip” on MU, ASML, and AMD like 6+ months ago and it’s been nonstop psychological torture. Sure it’s been slightly up a couple times, but why even sell for my measly gains? Then there are days like today, where I question how the fuck can the “only” company behind ALL the best chips be such a goddamn yo yo. Market is gay, I’m not crying, just raging in the casino

shokolokobangoshey

IIRC they deliberately bought ought ASML’s fab inventory a few years into the future specifically to keep the gear out of enemy hands

IronyElSupremo

Could get very similar results with vanguard’s VUG “Mega-cap” growth with only a 0.03% annual er. Throw in a little of their new VDG (ex-US developed growth) for QQQ’s ASML component etc.. and Samsung/Sk Hynix to boot.

Sea_Ebb4695

Everybody loves dumping the FAANGs and the hyperscalers. But no one’s dumping TSM or ASML 🧐🧐🧐🧐curious….

TheTastefulOuting

Viettel running a fab is wild, like asking a phone company to build a space shuttle. no buildings no ASML deal no timeline that holds up and theyre somehow surprised 2027 is slipping away the satellite imagery still showing trees where the cleanroom should be is the part that gets me. at least pour some concrete before you start talking about pilot production

ryzetard

ye sure gyna won with their cutting edge ascend chips that are heavily restricted compared to blackwells because SMIC the chinese ASML is like 20 years behind actual ASML. huwaei catches up only because they glue a shitton of these chips together in a rack. So whats the downside if you can just slap a shitton of chips together? energy, its like using up 4 times more energy. gyna is nowhere near competing with asml and nvidia, at least for now

JHgrandgerard

Like others said, a canceled slot mostly goes to the next customer in line. The bigger risk is a downturn, when customers push orders out all at once. I only count backlog once it turns into sales and cash, so delays don't keep me up at night. ASML's last reported backlog was €38.8B, end of 2025

A_Credo

Decades? With an S? Fucking lol. CXMT did it in less than 10 years without ASML giving them an EUV machine. Now imagine a new company in Europe or America with funding and no regulations. God you people sound dumber and dumber with every comment. Just fucking LOL. Hahahahaha

zer00eyz

In the case of ASML, I dont think any of its customers are even close to being at risk of folding. TSMC, SAMSUNG, HYNIX, INTEL( this is the small one) The memory space? That gets dicey and where you might see some customers fold. MU is pretty broad in its customer base they got burned by apple once and have wised up since.

Individual-Round2767

So sk hynix, NBIS, tsm, ASML all showing unprecedented growth was not enough to increase the stock but some small capex cut makes these stock nosedive. What tf is even this market

greenpride32

Contractual terms are likely going to differ from customer to customer. I would say pre-pay is less likely for ASML simply because they have so few customers. But it's been reported the memory makers are getting some pre-payment to secure future production; in this case though there is a much wider market of buyers and more leverage to demand such.

zer00eyz

ASML: More customers than product - Deep long standing relationships with said customers. Really not trying to screw any of them over. TSMC: Leader of using ASML's gear and getting the most out of it. They too have been taxed to the max and have chosen to cap deliveries and prices while re-utliziing existing capacity in creative ways. MU/Samsung: bent every customer over and gave it to them - this is the give and take of the memory space but this is stupid. MU is set up pretty well cause they locked some stupid customers into existing contracts. Most of these are big players (ford) using older tech. They don't have many options. Samsung stuck it to Apple (and their own phone division too) - Theres gonna be reckoning for that, I suspect that Samsung display division is going to pay the price on the other side due to the emerging folding screen debacle.

A_Credo

Good lord. You act like only China and CXMT exists. ASML will see to a plethora of other countries/companies if they wanted to build out memory/chip production. Are you like a freshman in high school? You can’t really be this slow. Can you?

A_Credo

Those machines are made by ASML and are run by installed by ASML. ASML doesn’t want to sell to China because they will steal their IP. And to be clear, China stole/piecemealed an EUV machine back together and hired former ASML to help them reverse engineer/build it. So yes, China does in fact have an EUV machine. Again, please do two seconds of research before talking. You sound stupid.

DNG3RZ0NE

Uhhh ASML should be in the holy trinity - clearly you’re going hardware here.

Designer_Respect4285

How do you lack this much self awareness? Why are you incapable of admitting you were wrong and instead try to shift the goal posts? You wrote something 100% objectively wrong, something easily verifiable, I corrected you. You then were objectively wrong again, about something easily verifiable, I again corrected you. Now you just change the subject. You say I don't know what's going on, but you are the only one who has demonstrated they don't even know the basics. Nothing I have said has been incorrect or in anyway demonstrated I don't know what's going on since all I've said was that you were wrong, which you were. I have 4.2 million invested, 90% of it in index funds, the rest in TSM, ASML, and SK Hynix which I've made a substantial return on. In what way am I a bagholder?

SufficientPop7502

Nothing would work without ASML

SavageBlackduck

Yes misspoke I meant ASML, will fix.

JustAnotherMormon

TSMC doesn’t sell tools, they’re a foundry. Maybe you’re thinking ASML?

StrikingMajor8488

"Freedom fries are still vegetables that you can easily buy as a Presbyterian from Burger King and McDonalds." That's what your comment sounds like buddy. TSMC and ASML are not "American cloud infrastructure or hardware" companies. If you can buy their stocks as an American do they become....American? I honestly don't even know how to reply back to that purely, mind-blowingly, clinically insane comment. Are you performing some intense mental gymnastic to double down on the originally wrong comment...?

Own-Bit3839

TSMC and ASML are still semiconductor stocks that you can easily buy as an American. Open source or not they are not going anywhere.

StrikingMajor8488

> American cloud infrastructure or hardware All built using TSMC and ASML chops...very American for sure... Most people commenting here don't even understand how easy and effective it is to run Qwen, MMH3, WAN2, etc on their own off-the-shelf rigs. We don't even compulsorily need homelabs or bone-fide servers anymore to run some shit that would have taken devs/designers large teams + ages to run without the AI speedup.

Life_Sherbert_995

ASML should be on top as "The Creator"

Tripple_sneeed

2.3 billion? In this economy? Lmao Are they buying 6 sticks of ram and a Commodore 64? Maybe a 0.5% ownership stake of one (1) ASML machine? 

Zealousideal-Fan2971

I'm a huge sceptic of AI, as much as LLM changed the world forever all, 99% of those AI trash companies will go out of business. 1. Current subscriptions are completely out of whack compared what you get vs what you cost them, i'm sure they ,,optimized'' it , so some college student buys it, uses few times and forgets about it. but using it to the fullest can cost them thousands of dollars compared to minimal sub cost when using usage limits effectively. 2. Moore's law ending, silicon won't be shrinked much further, ASML/TSMC might have some optimization tricks left but until we get a new semiconductor is discovered the gains/efficiency won't go much further. 3. Poisoned data, ai feeds trash from itself, most valuable knowledge has already been consumed by ai, now they're going for more and more obscure books etc, alright but there's not much more to learn. Hallucinations can always happen, you can double and triple check but they can always happen, and the costs of re checking scales up. 4. Free models aren't that much further behind, and censorship of models is taking more and more extreme paths, just cause some mentally ill regard will have fake relationship with GPT, or mad corpo clowns pressuring ai companies because of reverse engineering. Like a gold rush, it's not the gold miners making a bank it's the people selling pans and pickaxes (nvidia, tsmc, samsung, hynix, ASML) are the winners. I'd stay the hell away from all AI companies in ideal world, but well of course they'll get bailed out and steal more taxpayers money.

sln1337

ASML should be jesus to be fair

redfoobar

Google/Meta/Amazon etc are all building their own AI hardware while they are the biggest customers. I am sure Nvidea will keep selling ”well enough” but its not as irreplaceable by any means like TSMC and ASML. Funnily enough having AI available probably means that it’s a lot easier to move to a different non Nvidea hardware stack that does not support their proprietary CUDA (which is one of their current selling points)

NoLongerGuest

And Zeiss is the only reason ASML can make their machines there is no company in the world that is as good at making lenses as Zeiss.

Bagholder147

Pretty sure ASML is at the top

Garnatxa

ASML is the mother

quitecrossen

Fucking apostates. Everyone knows the three memory makers are the holy trinity, that Chinese upstart one is Lucifer. Nvidia is the Romans, TSMC is the aqueducts, and ASML is Lilith or something. Bing bong bing bong, now go say 10 Hail Marys. (AMD is Mary, obv)

Street-Corporation

I feel like ASML should be part of the holy trinity but yeah this is pretty good

boringestnickname

> They'll have to train up a replacement and that will take years. So in the meantime you ignore that guy, and when shit hits the fan you ask them for help. I don't really know if training replacements for some of these people is really feasible. The domain knowledge of someone who's been in, say, NT development for their entire professional life is pretty much impossible to replicate. The people coming together to make products at these types of complexity levels are essentially unique in their configuration. Listen to people talking about what would happen if ASML somehow was attacked or blipped out (or petered out.) It's not a given that we could get back to what we have now if we have an abrupt downturn. Kind of sounds like MS has been entirely AI pilled here, and is somehow banking on hardware developments accelerating (which makes no sense, because software quality low key deteriorated faster than hardware could keep up with even before LLMs, and we've been slowing down on the low level hardware stuff.)

RememberMeVibe

If it is a company like ASML, where they are far ahead of competition, I would say - yes, but with sooo many AI companies having a piece of the pie, and local llms not so far behind, I would lean - no. The thing is, the technology is there, and is pretty much the same thing for every AI company with all of them sharing 90% of the same pirated, scraped data and left with 10% for individualism. They outbeat each other every week.. and what does that tell you, they are fragile, very frigile!  Not 1.5 trillions worth for sure

moatandmargin

I hold ASML and the lower multiple doesn't bother me much. If earnings are growing faster than the share price, that's the valuation catching down, not the business getting worse. Nobody else makes the extreme ultraviolet machines chipmakers need, so the moat hasn't changed. What I'd actually watch is China export rules and whether chipmakers keep spending into next year.

GlokzDNB

I hold ASML since 700$ because it was defensive play, after jump to 1100$ and back to 500$ i was bit depressed. But bought more. Now I sold at 1300$ because of concentration risk but the stock is solid compounder for years, IMO you cant go wrong with it. But it's cyclical, let's assume CAPEX stays or goes lower - whos gonna ramp up production? Current spike is 100% due to memory / tsmc. This might be a supercycle, but there will be peak, anyone who think this is straight up line for 10 years must see beyond initial AI buildout phase. My theory could be raise of robotics in 30's, probably all robots, all autonomous vehicles need chips, but do they need EUV? Not sure. Perhaps? Anyway Im fine sticking around 10% of my porftolio, would trim further if its back to 15% again.

Open_Pollution_8038

Ooo look at me I’m the Netherlands, our largest and most successful company, ASML, is entirely owned by American IP and we have to give Washington a handy to export our product. Great living standards you got there bub 

CavalrySavagery

Well, to catch that technology is not a matter of 1-2 years as you can already tell, if you can’t means you know even less that I do, which is not much. What ASML does is THE MOST ADVANCED AND ACCURATE technology in the world, differentiated by YEARS. China tried to copy without any luck so yeah.

Dull_Satisfaction_21

Assuming you mean ASML, they are the only one who can make the machines for the high end chips. Plenty of companies enable second tier manufacturing and plenty of models can run on those. It's like saying cars will never catch on because rolls Royce can never produce that many cats.

No_Current3675

KLAC LRCX ASML maybe GOOG. Next week after shit bombs on MSFT GOOG capex.

Key_Lifeguard_8659

I would pull mine but a few are so underwater, I would rather risk having to wait a year or two to recover, rather than sell at a 30% loss. Many of the equities I own, like BWXT, RTLB, ASML, GOOG, are not companies that would go bankrupt... So I'm just going to be patient and hold and hope whatever happens is brief. I will be going fully into broad market ETFs in the future. Stocks are not for most people looking to hold longterm...especially with all the doom and gloom being generated...AI skepticism, global recession, war related oil prices, record debt... We gotta catch a break eventually.

AristotleBeing

The three aren't one trade. The dispersion inside that 50% is about China exposure and memory/logic mix, not about AI beta. AMAT, LRCX and KLAC sell into the same WFE pool but their geographic revenue split and their memory vs logic exposure differ a lot. A 50% drawdown is the market pricing a 2027 WFE cut. What actually decides whether this is the bottom is (a) how much of the 2025-26 AI capex was pull-forward from 2027 rather than new capacity, (b) whether NAND capex restarts, and (c) China domestic tool share continuing to climb. ASML down only ~22% is the tell, and not because of valuation: EUV backlog gives visibility that deposition/etch/inspection orders don't have. That's an order-book difference, not a multiple difference. What I'd check before calling a bottom: each company's latest 10-K geographic revenue split and the deferred revenue trend. If China share is still in the high-20s or above and trending down, this is a repricing, not a discount. (No position. I keep a WFE tracker for my own notes.)

Which_Swordfish5633

My take on AI - when you hear about how the 2 Global super powers racing to win this category at all costs, I just don't see how the industry will then go up in smoke. The world is doubling down on AI, or at least the pathway to AI, fueled by the necessity of being first... I just don't see how companies like NVDA, ASML, AVGO, PLTR, could be losses. I see this differently than the [dot.com](http://dot.com) bubble. Back then, each singular company was building an independent .com website, they were not aligned collectively for a common motivator. Now, all these companies are part of a unified infrastructure - yes, thats risky, but at such a large scale with the revenues they have, and with the progress being made, I just don't see how it could bust???

Caz5-_-

what names you’ve been looking at? Im looking to add to my STX position, add AMZN soon, ASML/KLAC, and potentially add AVGO depending on google earnings

Hihaho80

Ngl ASML down 1.5% again so we might be cooked

chloe858

Today, I’ve seen many friends in the secondary market sharing their account statements—drawdowns of tens of thousands of dollars in a single day are everywhere. The chart for SOXX (a semiconductor ETF), which has fallen 16.06% over the past month, serves as a perfect microcosm of the current "risk-off" storm hitting tech stocks. From my perspective—working in the primary market on pre-investment due diligence (DD) for private equity and industrial funds—I’d like to offer a reality check: don’t let the panic-driven stampede force you to surrender your core holdings. 1️⃣ Look-through Audit: The 16% decline represents an unwinding of the "liquidity premium" in the secondary market, not a collapse of the underlying core assets. The global monopolistic pricing power of companies like ASML, TSMC, and Nvidia—along with the long-term capital expenditure (Capex) trends in the AI ​​industry—remains fundamentally intact. 2️⃣ Valuation Anchoring: Market panic often signals the moment for long-term industrial capital to begin "buying into the dip" (contrarian positioning). This correction in SOXX is bringing the semiconductor sector’s forward P/E ratio closer to a more attractive historical mean. A "margin of safety" is created by price declines, not by rallies. 3️⃣ Risk Management: Should you liquidate a position that’s down $30,000? That depends on your concentration risk. If you are deploying unleveraged "dry powder" to build positions incrementally during a downturn, this "downcycle" is actually an ideal window to accumulate high-quality assets. For those of you engaged in high-frequency trading or managing long/short funds: are you currently executing stop-loss orders, or have you begun accumulating long-dated, high-delta call options—or perhaps the underlying stocks themselves? At this juncture, do you think the "other shoe has dropped," or is there more to come?

MidirTheGreatest

ASML and TSMC also signal strength going forward, but stocks down anyways

NevilleTheGreat

Thought LCRX would be a great long here but in fact ASML looks even more attractive and that one I wouldn't even rush into. Time to take it easy with chips and memory. Slowly long yes

Livid_Engineering_30

They can make the chips, the only issues they have is buying the machine from ASML to make the chips

Livid_Engineering_30

They can make the chips. the only problem they have is is not being able to buy the machine that makes the chips, which is ASML’s machine.

OptionsHuduga

if u waited till LRCX reported to know that the AI trade is dead then u r certified retardium. did you not see what happened with ASML and TSM? they reported great weeks back and the market didn't give a f.

Inside-Example-7010

Why doesnt anyone try to compete with ASML

CUbuffGuy

Sorry bears. Bull market time. SPCX 220 DRAM 80 GOOGL 440 ASML 2400 These are your safety picks boys

OptionsHuduga

look at ASML - it will never hold though - never does.

Individual-Round2767

I think meta will increase their AI spending and given TSMC and ASML had spectacular earnings it is highly likely that rest of the chip stocks will also be doing exceptional. Because of this i am all in chip stocks

Hihaho80

Wish I cpuld same the same about ASML

ergzay

They do have ASML lithography machine orders. That question was answered during the call.

wayfarer8888

The one without the ASML lithography machine orders? Me neither.

Hihaho80

ASML down 3% on Amsterdam market. Beware bulls.

alap_92

Nem csipeket gyárt a gép.Szilikonba vág layereket. Minél kisebb a "penge" amivel vág, annál kisebb a hely, és annál több tranzisztor etc. fér a szilikonba amiből aztán ugye csip lesz a végén. De az ASML gépei önmagában nem csinálnak meg egy csipet. Itt dolgozom, tudom.

Alarmed_Guarantee140

Did China break ASML’s EUV monopoly or are you talking out your ass? Because only one of those can be true.

IRunFast24

ABBV and ASML. Each about 25% of my port.

Character-Mix-9592

good writeup. one thing id add since you say a lot is priced in: valuation vs its own history. at \~€1,477 ASML is worth roughly €570B. on the €44-45B FY26 guide thats \~12.7x sales, vs an average of \~9x over the last 10 years. annualize the Q4 guide (€14.2-15.2B) though and its more like \~9.6x. so the price basically assumes Q4 is the new run rate and not a one quarter pull forward. quality wise its hard to fault, no loss year in 10 years, more cash than debt, return on capital way above 100%. do you see Q4 as the new base or more of a peak quarter?

AccomplishedTry9114

Can't argue with raw numbers like that. The prepayment jump is what got my attention, €3.57B to €9.30B means customers are literally fighting for slots in the queue Gross margin climbing while they're ramping this hard is rare, usually you see it compress when the push volume Still think the stock reacting flat is more about macro jitters than anything ASML did wrong - 36% growth guidance and the market barely blinks

ReserveDrunkDriver

Not OP, but thought I would chime in some color commentary on what I believe is more relevant today regarding "nationality" and governance, because ASML EUV is already governed by the USA, which is restricting the sales of EUV to China, etc. Another risk to growth today for ASML is the MATCH Act proposed by the USA, which would potentially lead to further restriction of maintenance and tooling sales to China, etc. The spike in (DUV tooling) sales in Q3 to China is a signal that China is preparing for the MATCH Act to pass as a real possibility (however low % of a chance). The progression of the MATCH Act is very important as an ASML investor or potential investor.

Severe_Command_914

Way too much ASML. It's been pretty good to me though.

wayfarer8888

The puck and ahovels did, TSMC, ASML. The actual infrastructure and financing will be in trouble, that's Oracle or Coreweave. Someone will scoop up the distressed data centers at acbig discount. I see Nvidia with the rhe circular financing more on the losing side, and it's not like no one else can make AI chips.

fire_alarmist

The leveraged stocks are too many layers removed from the real action(people buying and selling the underlying with conviction, causing big swings in sentiment and challenging price) to get a real gamma move, but they can be useful for high % change exposure with deeper ITM contracts that are more affordable than buying real puts on ASML for example. I would highly advise against OTM contracts on these though. Just like how physical natural gas futures go crazy some times but the micro cash settled natural gas futures dont have the same movement because there is no real physical asset being traded under the micro contract. A lot of the times you get very very diluted gamma/vega moves due to being multiple layers away from the real action. These leveraged etfs almost always come to being at the height of volatility too, and are created in pairs. They will issue a 3x short etf and a 3x long etf almost like creating a massive straddle for the marketmaker and it gives them the ability to manipulate the underlying through the leveraged funds.

WhatMattersHere

Small but important distinction in the semiconductor flows section: the leveraged fund in your Bloomberg chart is SOXL, not SOXX.SOXX is the unleveraged iShares Semiconductor ETF. SOXL is Direxion's daily 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, so large inflows into SOXL can reflect fairly aggressive short-term positioning rather than necessarily a durable increase in long-term institutional exposure to semiconductors.That matters alongside your observation that hedge funds have substantially reduced their net AI exposure. Those two things aren't contradictory; different types of investors can be moving in opposite directions over different horizons.I agree the ASML and TSMC commentary provides real evidence that underlying AI related demand remains strong. The harder question is how much of that demand eventually converts into sustainable returns for the companies financing the infrastructure.The positioning reset makes the market setup interesting, but I wouldn't treat leveraged ETF inflows or OPEX positioning alone as confirmation that the next move has to be higher.

TootCannon

It's like ASML but for anal sex toys

colemusic1

I get what you’re trying to say, but I wasn’t trying to talk specifically about one company but rather an example. I’m referring to the fears about memory manufacturing in china which would directly correlate to a threat towards SKHY, MU, SNDK, etc. the point i was making is that we’ve seen 9 straight days of sector wide selling off in semiconductor stocks / ETF’s, which hasn’t happened for 2 decades. so it isn’t so much about the gains they’ve made, but the question of what is happening to the overall market and whether or not this repricing is being massively overshot or if it’s genuinely what the market is considering it as the new fair valuation. MU alone produced one of the best reported quarterly earnings recently but it goes to show that ASML, which is a completely different type of semi company, is also struggling despite also excellent recent quarterly earnings

Spac55

$SPY $QQQ $MU $SMH $NVDA $TSM $ASML Nothing burger, AI not going away

ITS_WANDY

As someone in the semi industry, the most volatile portion of the business is the tool. They are the most expensive part in running a fab and it's the first thing the business cuts down on buying whenever there are stormy waters ahead. The other thing that needs to be looked at is TSMC has said it doesn't need the latest and greatest EUV tool from ASML for their next process nodes. Additionally, Nikon and Canon are making real progress on nano imprint lithography tools would could become legit competitors to the EUV platform in 5-10 years.

SellingTheta

MU and ASML triple beat and guided up. MU beat as well. What part of this do you not understand?

No_Current3675

u bought ASML after earnings dip, right son?

weecheeky

Well, if you were to look back at the big trades over the past two years, you've got Defence, AI, Commodities, and Energy. You didn't need to quant your way through that. A combination of your human judgement and deep analysis, combined with good risk management would have been enough to drive alpha. The push for war with Russia and all the pressure for governments to increase spending has fed directly to defence stocks. The gigantic money flow into AI infrastructure spend presented glorious opportunities at the choke points - ASML, Micron, SanDisk, etc. The Iran attack was telegraphed well in advance, so looking at what would be affected by that made certain products easy to build asymmetric trades. If you are smart, I would say you would do well to try to understand how well you understand what is happening. Not just listening to news, but going way deeper. You can do that with access to decent information rather than fancy data feeds, use your head, try to get a feel for how certain types of fundamental data have influenced markets and over what timeline, and build a way of running research in Claude. Not saying it is easy, but it is simple. If it is built around your personal insights, then you'll develop an edge and will be training yourself over time instead of an algorithm

sentientshadeofgreen

Nvidia has a strong balance sheet and has a financial interest to grow the AI industry. Companies like Anthropic generate a lot of revenue, the question is how much does each token cost them? That is dependent on a lot of things, but hardware and GPUs are major factors in that question, energy being another. Nvidia is a pick and shovel move, and will keep favorable business terms with Anthropic for as long as Anthropic remains a rational company moving the industry in the right direction that makes all of them money. The round tripping is spooky and not without risk, but all growth requires borrowing, and I'm looking at it more as instead of banks determining risk and capital access for how the industry should allocate capital, it's the money of companies who already made their money in the industry guiding how the industry grows on their own terms, not the banks'. Companies like Nvidia, Google, Microsoft are the "bank" and are growing the larger industry on terms that they believe will make them more money, and are doing so with financial and tech capital. If Nvidia's balance sheets started to degrade, along with Micron, ASML, AMD, or TMSC, I'd start to be worried about the AI trade. That's not currently the case, all companies are very strong, not leveraged to the tits. If the suppliers are good, costs can be low for the distributors. If costs are low for the distributors, profits are returned, the industry matures and diversifies and the debt eventually dwindles as growth outpaces it. The rest of the economy's health certainly impacts the pace at which the profit is generated and the industry matures, but there's nothing really to suggest the companies who already won won't weather storms to come. My biggest concern would be a black swan event like China attempting to cross the strait and invade Taiwan. That would fuck everything up, I don't think it'll happen, but if it does, weather and military indicators will give some warning for invasion windows up through late October (and there are no real clear indicators from my couch that there is a massive amphibious assault planned) or April/May. Weather is everything in military planning and there would be signs. I also can't help but think that with other parts of the world attempting to diversify away from TSMC who remains a persistent chokehold, China would probably wait until Taiwan loses that leverage.

Legitimate_Risk_1079

POLR | Polar Capital Holdings - Current Price: 752p (£7.52) - Market Cap: ~£748M - Bull Target (12–18m): 900–1,000p - Bear Target: 625–675p - Upside: +20% to +33% - Downside: -10% to -17% - Reward-to-Risk: ~2.0:1 🟢 - Success Probability: 60% - Forward P/E: ~12–13 - Debt-to-Equity: Very low 🟢 - Cash: ~£151M 🟢 - Dividend: 46p annually - AUM: £43.7B as of Sept. 30 🟢 - Six-Month Net Inflows: £3.6B 🟢 - Profitability: Strong 🟢 - Shareholder Returns: Dividends + buybacks 🟢 - Price Trend: Recent improvement, but weak five-year chart 🔴 - Bull-Case Market Cap: ~£895M–£995M - Risk: Moderate - Conviction: 7/10 - Grade: B+ Polar Capital is a profitable specialist asset manager with excellent recent AUM growth, strong inflows, substantial cash and an attractive dividend. I like the fundamentals at 752p, but the negative five-year price chart prevents me from giving it an A-range grade until long-term shareholder performance improves. --- SMGB | VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF - Current Price: £76.91 - Fund Size: ~£7.1B - Bull Target (12–18m): £100–£110 - Bear Target: £62–£66 - Upside: +30% to +43% - Downside: -14% to -19% - Reward-to-Risk: ~2.1:1 🟢 - Success Probability: 65% - Debt-to-Equity: N/A, ETF - Expense Ratio: 0.35% - Holdings: 25 - Top-10 Concentration: ~83% 🔴 - Major Holdings: AMD, Broadcom, NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, Micron - Semiconductor Exposure: 100% - Price Trend: Strong long-term trend with high volatility 🟢 - Risk: Moderate-High - Conviction: 7/10 - Grade: B+ SMGB provides concentrated exposure to the world's major semiconductor companies. I like the underlying businesses and approximately 2:1 reward-to-risk at £76.91, but the extreme sector and top-10 concentration keep this below my A-range. --- LGND | Ligand Pharmaceuticals - Current Price: $298 - Market Cap: ~$5.9B - Bull Target (12–18m): $400–$440 - Bear Target: $235–$250 - Upside: +34% to +48% - Downside: -16% to -21% - Reward-to-Risk: ~2.1:1 🟢 - Success Probability: 65% - Forward P/E: ~43 🔴 - Debt-to-Equity: Elevated after convertible financing 🟡 - Cash & Short-Term Investments: $1.36B 🟢 - 2026 Revenue Guidance: $270M–$310M - 2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $9.00–$9.50 - Royalty Growth: +32% YoY in Q2 🟢 - Profitability: Strong 🟢 - Price Trend: Strong long-term trend 🟢 - Bull-Case Market Cap: ~$7.9B–$8.7B - Risk: Moderate - Conviction: 7/10 - Grade: B+ Ligand operates a capital-light pharmaceutical royalty business and recently expanded substantially through XOMA Royalty. I like the profitability, royalty growth and balance-sheet liquidity, but the premium valuation prevents me from pushing it into A-range at $298. --- GROW | U.S. Global Investors - Current Price: $2.72 - Market Cap: ~$34M - Bull Target (12–18m): $3.50–$4.00 - Bear Target: $2.00–$2.20 - Upside: +29% to +47% - Downside: -19% to -26% - Reward-to-Risk: ~1.7:1 🟡 - Success Probability: 45% - Debt-to-Equity: Extremely low 🟢 - Cash: $24.3M 🟢 - Net Working Capital: $35.7M 🟢 - FY2026 Revenue: $10.3M, +21% 🟢 - FY2026 Net Income: $3.1M 🟢 - Operating Income: -$603K 🔴 - Average AUM: $1.5B - Share Buybacks: 734K shares repurchased 🟢 - Price Trend: Severe long-term underperformance / water-slide 🔴 - Bull-Case Market Cap: ~$44M–$50M - Risk: High - Conviction: 4/10 - Grade: C+ U.S. Global Investors is a tiny specialist asset manager with exposure to thematic funds including JETS. The balance sheet, buybacks and return to profitability are encouraging, but a roughly 54% five-year decline, weak underlying operating profitability and mediocre reward-to-risk deserve a major penalty. I need to see a sustained reversal before considering this a B-grade investment.

davidbigham

ASML TSMC amazing earning and guidance , Bond yield going down. Yet u regards still buying put today

theJimmybob

3 2 1 crash https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp0RPUctTfU$ASML

Junior_Reference_594

Intc will tank like FUCK on earnings like TSM ASML did You knew that already ofc

No_Current3675

fucktards. MU ASML TSM all posting face-ripping profits. wtf else do u want.

believe1182

Out of the companies I listed: $NVDA, $TSMC, $TER, $META, $ASML, $MU, $SNDK, $MSFT Name one that is currently "making less money than it is spending" ? Or "not making money".

More-Curious816

ASML is a collection of things from around the world joined together in a duck tape. it's not a Dutch machine.

theromingnome

TSMC is making the chips designed by an American company (Nividia) on machines designed and built by a Dutch company (ASML). Its not really that straightforward.

Nervous-Present-6890

US is destroying ASML

CFDsForFun

So where do you sit with ASML? Will China catch them or are they too far ahead?

lkashfoiwiu093285021

Just gonna keep on buying ASML/TSM and not looking at the market till the end of the year.

zuckzuckonit

Why is ASML and the whole semiconductor market down so much?

Previous_Song_298

Why is nobody talking about ASML?

shaun5pais

ASML down 6.6% at the open wow

believe1182

$NVDA, $TSMC, $TER, $META, $ASML, $MU, $SNDK, $MSFT, the fuck? The list goes on and on. This is also during the scale-out period when the companies need to spend insane Cap-ex. Imagine if that cap-ex pays off and translate to scaled revenue?

Ok_Cry7572

The fear of the market: and the results of Samsung, ASML and TSMC….🤔

DudebroMcCool

ASML just opened over 5% down, nice

Anonn39

Hey look it's the same story as last time, every semi company beat and raise guidance with demand projection going up, ASML, Samsung, TSMC, MU, etc. but their stocks continue to drop 5-10% a day. You know what to do.

BadaBingSil

TSMC earnings in an hour lol cheers to you, Taiwan even though ASML earnings couldn't save us maybe you can

Majestic_Mention171

ASML didnt and neither did Claude lol

prana_fish

So retarded. We've had multiple past seasons where semis companies absolutely smash earnings and guide only to drop immediately post earnings. People still never learn. Look at how $ASML was treated just yesterday.

Acrobatic-Ostrich168

I added some NVDA ASML and GOOGL today. I’m not leaving

Acrobatic-Ostrich168

Sheesh the macroeconomic environment is so bad rn.. I’m gonna dump a lot of my high beta stocks. Photonics are sold out for like 7 years though and I don’t wake to let them go even though they’re being so beaten down. ASML earnings were great tbh but this macroeconomic situation just overshadows any semblance of strength or optimism about the future.