ASML

Successful-Tea-5733

The move away from US Assets recently has been more political than financial. The largest company on VXUS, TSMC has a market cap of $1.5 tril. Next is ASML at $500bil. For comparison TSMC would only come in around 7 on the S&P 500. ASML would be around 16. The US is simply a better place for business and you'll see that in stock returns. And keep in mind, both of these are going to go up and down with the same AI/Chip/Semi volatility that the Mag7 are exposed to. I'm not opposed to having a piece of VXUS or other international. Just making the point that VXUS went up because of politics, but is falling for the same reason other large cap tech stocks are falling.

Rohat19

why tf did ASML and TSMC fall off a cliff? did Iran bomb chip farms

aizver_muti

ASML didn't beat expectations.

Vegetable_Push6542

Fake pump on Oracle. Hopefully it goes negative tomorrow. ASML pumped 10% on earnings and sold off all day to end the day at -3%.

jnas_19

Plaza Accord, Louvre Accord, Forcing Allies to Exclude Huawei, Vietnam War, Banana Wars/Latin America, Export Controls around ASML/TSMC, Iraq War Coalition, Tariff trade deals that heavily favored US, Dollar-Oil/Petrodollar Pact, etc etc. I'm still waiting for the huge economic impact from such a "damaged relationship"

AnonThrowaway998877

Do they have manufacturing capacity to produce mass quantities to sell, and if not, is it "easy" to get there or is it something more like ASML that takes lots of time and money?

IntergalacticBurn

I bought into ASML in April 2025 and held it since =\]

Diamondhands4dagainz

Huge AI pump. Look at AVGO MU ASML lmfao jfc

kal14144

ASML absolutely shrieking

jgcraig

You would like ASML

CMDR_Shepard96

Praying for my ASML Calls after the last week. I'm so cooked

justinsst

ASML was 1500 two weeks ago, what happened? I sold at the top but just curious if there’s some news I missed after earnings. Just market anxiety over AI?

CMDR_Shepard96

So, you think my MSFT & ASML calls might not have a good week?

CMDR_Shepard96

So, how do we think this will effect MSFT & ASML. My calls are so cooked

twk1212

Isn't ASML a Dutch stock traded in NYSE? Do you have to pay more taxes on this? Is this in taxable brokerage or Roth?

No-Understanding2406

the equipment companies are "neutral" framing is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. ASML just reported flat Q4 bookings and guided cautiously. if chip export controls tighten further, foundries outside the US reduce capacity additions, and suddenly ASML, AMAT, LRCX have fewer customers building new fabs. the whole "they sell equipment not chips" argument ignores that equipment demand is downstream of chip demand. also the "domestic demand is exempted so everything is fine" angle misses the bigger picture. the entire AI capex thesis depends on hyperscalers eventually monetizing that spend internationally. if Microsoft builds $80B worth of US data centers but can't fully deploy AI services in half the world because of restrictions on the underlying chips, the return on that capex gets harder to justify over time. honestly though, while everyone debates this export control draft, the actual underpriced risk to the chip supply chain right now is energy. Qatar's Ras Laffan going offline means Taiwan's LNG supply is getting squeezed hard. TSMC runs on gas. 60 days of reserves sounds comfortable until you realize Asian spot LNG just went vertical and every available cargo is getting outbid by desperate buyers. the intersection of the Hormuz energy disruption and semiconductor manufacturing is where i'd actually be looking, not some bureaucratic licensing framework that'll probably get watered down before it's finalized anyway.

dustsmoke

They don't have a monopoly on EUV. China has reverse engineered it from ASML and now have their own

AcousticMayo

I'm no expert, but I think once a stock catches mainstream exposure its just what people think about when they think chips. I invested in ASML back when it was criminally undervalued and most people didn't give it much of a look despite it having the same monopoly. On a tangent its like when Google wasn't going through the roof, people doubted its AI capabilities, now look at it AND people says it's undervalued still. Retail market sentiment still weirds me out

Morten14

I feel like ASML is the play. They make the equipment for making RAM

albearcub

Having worked in the tool space for my entire career, I'd argue that you should prioritize investing in the tool companies in the following order - ASML, AMAT, LAM, KLA = TEL. I really don't see good long term arguments for investing in Lam > Applied as deposition and product diversity is just so much more important. Once (if) the memory cycle dies down, Lam just goes back to being an solely etch company. ASML's litho monopoly is definitive but the closest one following is AMAT's dep dominance, then followed by Lam's etch dominance.

External_Pattern9950

depends on your timeframe. if you are buying for 3+ years then ASML is the one i would look at first because they have a literal monopoly on EUV lithography and every chipmaker on earth needs their machines. the selloff is a gift if you have patience. TSM is the other obvious one since they manufacture for everyone and the geopolitical risk is already priced in more than it should be. for a more speculative play, LRCX and KLAC are the picks and shovels of the industry. avoid trying to catch the exact bottom. set a price you like and start a position, then add more if it drops another 10-15%. the semiconductor cycle is real and we are closer to the bottom than the top of this correction.

Always_Curious_One2

The tax effects by country are complicated. But I’ll add that many public companies in Europe are “legacy” industries like banks, consumer products, chemical companies, telecom, automotive… An outstanding leader is ASML in semiconductor manufacturing . And there are brands like LVMH etc and some solid drug makers, but otherwise not a lot of leading edge industries (there are privates).

Haikoe

Trying to get that EUV machine out of my backyard. Those ASML guys refuse to believe they have to deliver at Intel, not incel

gamjatang111

It appears Trump wants to hinder China's AI growth first import restrictions on Chips and other things essential to semi conductor production like EUVs from ASML. I think the boldest play would be to take Taiwan now that US fleet is spread thin (If they go protect ships in Strait or Hormoz), they also have an embargo in Cuba and whatever force they have in Venezuela. Cutting off taiwan means cutting off US chip production and bolster China's own AI advancement

sentientshadeofgreen

I believe that AI isn't going away, what we'll actually see is a shift away from microelectronic semiconductors into photonic chips. With photonics, the absurd miniaturization that only TSMC can achieve using only ASML's EUV machines is not necessary. You can accomplish the same performance on a larger wafer. I think it's possible a Taiwan crisis happens before photonic chips usurp electronic chips, more likely it could even be a catalyst, but things are already moving that direction. That being said, I'm keeping some TSMC stock, geopolitical risk or not, there is nobody else on the planet that can do what they do and electronic chips are not going away. Samsung is second. Furthermore, in the context of AI, AI is waiting on a photonic chip revolution. We're talking light speed communication versus the speed of electrons through materials with resistance. There is a lot of money invested in de-risking the global supply chain away from one company in Taiwan who relies on one company in the Netherlands, so I think the photonic computing revolution is happening one way or another by the end of the decade. If I'm picking one company I think will be very successful, it takes very little creativity - it's going to be Nvidia. That being said, I have investments in Coherent (COHR), Corning (GLW), IBM, and IPG Photonics (IPGP). I'm planning to open positions in POET and Broadcom. Possibly will invest in Lumentum, nLight, and Cisco as well but I have to do more research and get a better idea of what I'm willing to pay. I'm waiting for a big stock market dip to tax-efficiently diversify more into this sector. A lot cheaper to actualize a loss and buy a market dip the same day, than to actualize a profit and overpay the same day. I don't like sitting on cash otherwise.

Pleasant_Arugula7571

The semiconductor angle here is the one I do not see discussed enough. Taiwan fabs run almost entirely on LNG for power generation. TSMC alone consumes roughly the equivalent of a small city worth of gas. They have approximately 60 days of reserves on island, which sounds like a lot until you realize the Ras Laffan plant going offline is not just a Qatar problem - it is a global LNG allocation problem. If you want to understand what happens to NVDA, ASML, and the entire AI infrastructure trade if this drags into April, look at what happened to DRAM prices in 2022 when European energy costs spiked. Manufacturers started throttling production not because of demand but because running at full capacity became economically irrational given input costs. Same logic applies to foundry capacity. The market is pricing this as an oil story. It is actually a global energy allocation story, and the second-order effects hit equities that most people assume are insulated from Middle East risk.

Pleasant_Arugula7571

The semiconductor angle here is the one I do not see discussed enough. Taiwan fabs run almost entirely on LNG for power generation. TSMC alone consumes roughly the equivalent of a small city worth of gas. They have approximately 60 days of reserves on island, which sounds like a lot until you realize the Ras Laffan plant going offline is not just a Qatar problem - it is a global LNG allocation problem. If you want to understand what happens to NVDA, ASML, and the entire AI infrastructure trade if this drags into April, look at what happened to DRAM prices in 2022 when European energy costs spiked. Manufacturers started throttling production not because of demand but because running at full capacity became economically irrational given input costs. Same logic applies to foundry capacity. The market is pricing this as an oil story. It is actually a global energy allocation story, and the second-order effects hit equities that most people assume are insulated from Middle East risk.

CMDR_Shepard96

Had some MSFT & ASML Calls 😀

CMDR_Shepard96

I thought ASML might bounce this week if Drumpf TACOd. Instead my calls are now -60% & -20k lol

CMDR_Shepard96

So uh, ASML bounce when?.....

GreenPRanger

Man you are really out here trying to gamble a hundred grand in a digital cage and calling it a strategy. Those names like Google and Microsoft are just the high priests of the cloud lords and you are just paying them rent to stay in their cathedral. This nine month window you talk about is a total silicon mirage designed to keep you trapped while they harvest your agency. Investing in ASML or TSMC is just funding the masters who build the cages for your own data. Real sovereignty is not about a fifteen percent gain in a bubble but about owning the iron yourself so the machine cannot flip the switch on your soul. You are just a vassal trying to pick a favorite master in a game where the house always wins. No cap you should stop chasing their tokens and start building your own castle with your own hardware before the theology of the machine leaves you broke and powerless.

GreenPRanger

you are literally planning to throw $100K into a Silicon Mirage because you think the money furnace has not hit the energy wall yet. Picking those hardware giants like ASML or TSMC is just classic agency laundering where you bet on the lords of the cloud to keep drinking rivers dry for their matrix multiplication dreams. You are falling for that automation bias where you trust the stock ticker more than the actual physics of a bubble that is about to pop. A 9 month window for a 15% gain is just time confetti gambling in a techno feudalist system where they want to turn every investor into a data cow. The theology of the machine says 2027 is the finish line but really it is just an enclosure of the commons where they suck the planet dry to power a sophisticated autocomplete that has no world model. Stick to reality because this whole AI infrastructure play is just behavioral strip mining dressed up as a smart investment strategy while the planet burns.

fire_alarmist

ASML puts pricing in the possibility of a drop back to the day's low.

Terrible-Zucchini-23

China, could sound like a problem. But it's not in reality. China are few generations behind in their DRAM and HBM, and current AI build out/language models won't risk not buying only the best and latest. Another bottleneck is EUV from ASML, not that easy for any random company/China to crank up production. Memory demand is only going get higher. At least the demand for the latest generation DRAM/SRAM/HBM

fire_alarmist

My comment was based on me holding a big BAC 48.5 P position and ASML 1305 P Position from yesterday, that expires today and being forced to sell for not as much as I should have got after all this theta cuckoldry when it really should have just kept going. My vix puts that I bought to try to hedge were useless and didnt appreciate at all, and the whole thing is just gay and fake.

daedalus_dance

ASML being down 3.86% on oil prices is crazy lol

understated_vibes

If the goal is to ride the AI boom the obvious plays are still the picks and shovels like semiconductors and cloud infrastructure, so companies like TSMC, ASML, and Microsoft make sense. But the funny thing about AI right now is that some of the biggest players are still private companies like OpenAI or Anthropic, which retail investors cannot buy directly. That is why I have been looking a bit more at private market exposure lately and saw that Fundrise has an Innovation Fund that invests in late stage tech companies.

TradingTennish

Gosh, I bought ASML around 2005 when a buddy started working there. Zero reason since to sell it, amazing company with a healthy future imo. Also my friend still works there and is very happy to do so.

CMDR_Shepard96

Aaand ASML -5% before we even fucking open. Jfc

daedalus_dance

ASML hitting its 50 Day EMA lol

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML. Fuck me dead

daedalus_dance

Why the hell are we selling ASML over oil prices. Isn't AI the new oil?!?! (partially sarcasm)

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML sending my port to zero before I can even unload these bags 🫠

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML APR17 1500C @-50% now.. cut losses?

CMDR_Shepard96

Where are the dip buying retards. ASML needs you 🫵

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML headed for another -5% day.. fkn obliterated my port in a week

CMDR_Shepard96

If we have another all green day and ASML still dumps I will probably rope

fire_alarmist

wtf, ASML moving like the bubble done popped L0L

CMDR_Shepard96

Buy the ASML dip you retards. Save my calls..

PhasedVenturer

Apparently ASML is now a higher beta stock than AMD or NVDA because what are these swings?

CMDR_Shepard96

My ASML APR17 1500C Went from +50% to -50% in the space of a few days. This is depressing

CMDR_Shepard96

Well. I'm pretty much fkn done. 130K-30k in the space of a month thanks to MSFT & ASML lol. Made it last year on some lucky trades, lost it on what I thought were safe bet longs.

CMDR_Shepard96

First MSFT trashed my port. Now ASML. Fuck sake.

CMDR_Shepard96

Why is shit always red overnight/premarket ASML stop being a pussy and pump that shit. Everyone needs chips for their missiles, even the shit box shaheed drone has a computer onboard.

Portfoliana

most interesting thing here is MU at 9.11% basically matching NVDA at 9.20%. a year ago nvda was probably 20%+ of this fund. i moved about half my smh position into individual semis back in late 2024 specifically because of that concentration risk, bought ASML and TSM directly. down maybe 11% on the swap overall but at least i control the weights now. for a 2030 hold id be careful with the tipranks targets tho. those etf consensus numbers basically just aggregate indivdual stock price targets which assume everything goes right for every holding simultaneously. not really how semis work when TSM and NVDA are competing for the same capex dollars

JuliusFIN

How the hell am I up 33% YTD when I’m mostly in semis then? I have avoided the very end of the value chain though, mostly buying things like AMD, MU, TSM, ASML etc.

BNA-mod

TSM and ASML all day everyday. All they do is collect profits from chip biz. Nobody gets chips without these two. GOOGL is a value buy at this price. PE ~28? Forget about it. Thank me in 24 months when it’s 🚀 SOFI was better last week but I do think it will continue to rise back into the mid 20’s. LLY under $1020 will pay well as an investment. Bought the unreasonable dip in APP. This will be $700-750 by EOY. On fundamentals, you should buy PICS. Corporate buyers are going to buy every dip because it’s basically PayPal for So. America. $25 near term and $60 within 2-3 years. PDI for the dividends. IBM under $300 is a given.

Shah_an_shah

I remember looking at ASML last year at $750, thinking it’s too expensive.

spook008

ASML, AMPH, MSFT all were caught ok my screener yesterday as they were dipping

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML just going to grind all the way back down to flat? Cmon. Stop being shit.

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML/SNDK are green today (My ASML April 1500C are still deep red though.. fell like 40% yesterday alone)

CMDR_Shepard96

My ASML calls are COOKED.

Ancient_Sort5820

Any reason for ASML being particularly shafted?

4Whom_The_Bell_Tolls

You're seeing ghosts. The stock market doesn't work like that at all. You seem to be under the impression that the stock market is somehow made by retail investors or that people mostly invest in their own country, but that's not the case, not in any country. The markets, even smaller exchanges like AMS, are far too large and liquid for new tax rules on Dutch retail investors to have any influence. Look up the main holders of AEX ETFs (mostly large institutions), and the main holdings of Dutch retail investors (mostly foreign). That might illustrate the point for you. All Dutch individual investors could sell all of their ING and ASML stock today and the AEX wouldn't lose a single percentage point. This wealth accumulation tax was chosen specifically because it does not give as much market distortion as you would have with a wealth tax or a realised gains tax. In the latter case, people sell near years end for tax loss harvesting.

CMDR_Shepard96

Did Iran drone strike ASML?

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML tearing me a new asshole.

conall22

ASML

CMDR_Shepard96

Yesterday hurt. I'm long on ASML

CMDR_Shepard96

Nah, sold some iron condors on SNDK & got some April 1500C for ASML. The ASML calls were up solidly, but lost it all in the space of two sessions and now it's down like 6k lol Dumped like 10%.. They realise missiles still use chips right?

CMDR_Shepard96

Can you guys go back to pumping ASML & SNDK please..

SinisterCheese

Oh good. Thats just the thing we need here in Europe, total collapse of global supply chains. It's gonna suck globally also, if something like Zeiss, Trumpf etc. cant supply components to ASML machines. It'll grind the global chip situation deeper into shit.

CMDR_Shepard96

If semiconductors could pump a little now that would be great. My ASML calls are crying after the last few days.

CMDR_Shepard96

So.. ASML & SNDK probably aren't going to have a good day/week/month hey

CMDR_Shepard96

My ASML bull spreads were up like 60% this time last week.. feck.. Fuck orange man.

No_Boysenberry4825

> ASML I SOLD ahhhhh

King_Shurik

In case I didn't understand you, are you convinced that semiconductor stocks (NVDA, TSM, ASML, etc.) will rise on Monday because of the attack on Iran?

yelloworld1947

Anthropic is just an example from my day to day use, even if OpenAI or Google or xAI succeed, ASML, TSMC, MU, BE, TSLA solar all succeed, and Nvidia to some extent. I do get that these features will get commoditized at some point but Nvidia’s increase in gross margins argues that hardware is in fact going the opposite way at the moment and it seems likely for the next year. Where it stops I don’t know but that is the million dollar question, the tea leaves aren’t pointing towards that for some time. For something with the potential to disrupt so many jobs I feel these are early innings.

mardex_5

he could have bought ASML a year ago and now he would be 100% in plus there are and were plenty of things that are relatevly cheap, but Berkshire didn't make a move

everySmell9000

europe has only a few real tech companies: ASML and ARM. Spotify and SAP will get replaced by american-dominated AI tools. In my opinion, US tech is going to eat the rest of the world’s lunch with AI. S&P500 is pricey for a reason. Im not playing these games though. I simply rebalance and maintain a 70/30 Us/Ex-US target.

Mountain_Oil8718

China and ASML don't get along....

fire_alarmist

There are a billion techical indicator reasons why and the fact that China literally has their machine built but can only get the optical mirror needed from old ASML machines due to the swiss watchmaker that makes them refusing to sell. The second China can make those mirrors ASML gets cooked.

-Crash_Override-

>The bottle neck however is not Nvida, but TSMC and ASML and other Fabs. But it doesn't matter where the bottleneck is. At the end of the day **Nvidia** have a supply chain constraint. It doesnt its TSMC or some copper mine in Chile or the company making the stickers that go on the GPUs. As you said right now nvidia has no plans to build a shit load of fabs even if they could, and TSMC is trying to build as aggressively as possible, but fab planning and construction is forecast in years, not quarters.. Given that it becomes a pretty clear equation (simplified, because there are other parts of this supply chain): 1) How many dies can TSMC produce - which they have provide a robust forecast. 2) How many GPUs can Nvidia produce - which is a function of how many dies TSMC can produce 3) How many GPUs can Nvidia sell - which is usually the variable factor - but given that all GPUs are accounted for over the next 3 or so years - is a known. And that last point is why this all comes full circle. Salesforce could release a crazy new feature that everyone wants and sales spike. Palantir could double their sales team and see a huge jump in sales. They (for purposes of discussion) dont really have a ceiling and as such their revenue is variable and difficult to predict, and thus why stocks trade up and trade down on earnings. Nvidia simply does not have that problem right now. The math is mostly static. >My point is chip production is scalable, just at a slow pace I didnt say it wasn't scalable. I said it scales like a manufacturing company, not like a tech company.

DrakenViator

I'll conced that Nvida is constrained in ordering more chips, so the supply is finite. The bottle neck however is not Nvida, but TSMC and ASML and other Fabs. For me "scalable" is just a matter of what kind of timeline you are looking at. Nvida has enough cash if they wanted they could build a dozen Fabs, but ASML can only produce so many 3nm - 5nm lithograph machines a year. I'm not as well versed in the gasses and other raw materials needed to run a Fab, so I don't know what (if any) constraints are in the raw material supply chain, so I can't speak to those. My point is chip production is scalable, just at a slow pace. Also, given the costs to build a new Fab, TSMC and others are not in a rush. They benefit from running at nearly 100% production capacity. No sense in doubling production, if demand for AI chips could drop overnight if the 'bubble' pops.

Much_Dealer8865

Absolutely. TSMC (and ASML) has made everything possible.

027a

To be honest, there is no alternative in the world to the US public sector. Even the single wins the EU sometimes scores, like Ozempic or Mistral, are short-lived and instantly out-competed by the US (Tirzepitide, everything US AI). The EU hangs on to the wins like pearls because they’re so rare, meanwhile almost no one has heard of Retatrutide, its going to save millions of lives a year beyond Ozempic, and that’s like just another day for Lilly & US biopharma. I’d put a diverse position into ASML, because that’s roughly the last great EU company left. Beyond that: if the US goes down, the entire world is absolutely and totally fucked. Your EU/UK diversification will not save you, you’ll be buried so far underground your capital will never see daylight again.

POWRAXE

Just noticed ASML is up 41% in the last 3 months. Wow.

LibertarianPrime

U.S. produces about 12% of global chip supply and that is likely to grow based on current fabs under construction. But the main mechanism of the export ban is IP. Nvidia designs the chips, so it is American IP and therefore subject to U.S. laws. Similarly, ASML used American technology (and parts) in their lithography machines, hence how the US was able to ban ASML exports to China.

elgrandorado

I unwinded the last of my ASML position because of this. We're definitely in the throes of the AI CapEx supercycle, but the moment one of the hyperscalers flinches, the ride down will be gnarly. It could be two years from now, but the time to buy into the shovels was 2-4 years ago. I'm debating on GOOG. They've proven their ability to reinvest in the business and continually fend off competitors, but I don't like to see FCF multiples compress like this to starve out AI labs.

CMDR_Shepard96

Even if they wanna start a war, you know what missiles need? Chips. Calls on ASML & LMT/RTX.

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML wiping 30 billion off its market cap after all the AI companies smash earnings and commit to give capex, makes total sense

fire_alarmist

There is no way they waited to shake me out of an atm ASML put and OTM ASML put, 30 SPY puts and MU puts before dropping it like this... Holy shit man I hate this market so much. Shit never makes sense.

Opposite_Engine_6776

All my names are getting gaped… NVDA, MU, GOOG, ASML Only one that isn’t is PLTR ….. oh wait, never mind, just end me.

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML wtf happened

TheGraeme95

ASML wyd bro

CMDR_Shepard96

My ASML bull spreads got fucken obliterated

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML and GOOGL getting murdered

CMDR_Shepard96

ASML what are you doing bro

M_from_Vegas

Samsung... which means essentially South Korea It's a spicy meatball like ASML or Rheinmetall for foreign exposure But you can gamble, I mean invest, using options Have fun!

elgrandorado

More the timing of buybacks. It irritated me to no end how ASML would do their buybacks constantly at ATH because they had a buyback cadence. Being in a cyclical industry like that, they know they should hold off until the market decides to rear it's ugly head.

Vento_echo

ASML has been better!