ASML

No_Current3675

Nah bro it’s all in good fun.  I’ll consider MRVL profits when I’m up 25-50%. MU already took a lot and holding the rest until 1500 likely. ASML took a lot and holding remainder until 2000. KLAC never selling, it’s going to absolutely fly after the split. NVDA perpetual hold. TSM too. Smaller semis will have to consider it as we go. Been buying more and more metals, software, and boomer shit as a counterbalance. Holding $500K cash.

No_Current3675

LOL. Some cunt gave me shit for buying MRVL yesterday. Just like the cunt who gave me shit for buying MU. Just like the cunt who gave me shit for buying ASML…

nachi_w

Will they buy more machines from ASML?

Loightsout

It’s not even just about the fed money. The commission free trading apps are a world wide thing. Where are all these guys going to invest? The local market? Brother I was in Thailand last year. On the way to the airport my taxi driver was trading stocks while in traffic. Solely American stocks. The American stock market is so profitable and dominant in these apps as well as positioned in all big ETFs you have an insane influx of money since 2020. I’m a prime example. I’m German and live in Germany. I don’t own a single German stock. I have over 200k in the American market. The only European stock in my portfolio is ASML.

No_Current3675

KLAC ASML MRVL savin my shit

No_Current3675

Christ Jesus. ASML.

Nike_J

tl;dr Jensen pumping his investment Nvidia bought some 2 billion worth of Marvell stock. They make tech that allows high spees communication between Nvidia GPUs. Chip to Chip speed essentially. This week Jensen Huang made a comment that Marvell will be the next trillion dollar company. The stock was climbing before that already, as all the other stocks that are somewhat involved in the AI value chain (TSMC, ASML, Micron, SK Hynix, AT&S,...) all of them went up at least 200% YTD. Jensens comment just put more fuel to the fire

ShittyUsernane1222

quantum field theory is a bunch of spinning stuff on curved surfaces (pseudo vectors and spinors) , infinite dimensional version of linear algebra and a special derivative (gauge covariant derivative) derived from copious applications of product rule, chain rule on symmetry transformations (rotation, translation etc.) and their generators. finance is stochastic / randomized linear algebra with gambling characteristics. AI is linear algebra but with derivatives, copious applications of chain rule and nonlinear functions. what computer chip is really good at linear algebra? GPUs and TPUs. who produces and operates GPUs, TPUs? magnificent 7 and Huawei who do they rely on supply chain? Taiwan (TSMC) , Netherlands (ASML) , China( for end product manufacturing) who do Taiwan, Netherlands, China rely on for their oil, energy supply? gulf states and iran Is that supply chain broken? Yes, see ongoing hormuz strait blockade

Happy-Philosophy9211

ASML is goated and deserves every green candle

PMmeuroneweirdtrick

Semis are critical infrastructure. Even after a crash they will go back up. Invest in the companies building stuff and you will be fine. ASML TSMC AVGO NVDA ARM LAM etc

Total-Savings6385

Wtf ASML is doing at European open

Joejoecornrow

ASML. I’ll die on this hill . If it were an American co ……

tke248

LRCX — semi-cap equipment / etch & deposition — **B+**. Correct ticker for Lam Research. Belongs with AMAT/ASML/KLAC in the “machines that make the chips” bucket.

AgathormX

honestly, I think the fastest way up would be to keep an eye at the infant semiconductor industry in China. Huawei and Moore Threads' GPUs aren't showing much promise right now, but if there's one thing I'll always bet on is the Chinese, and the fact that they even exist in the first place is excellent. It's not going to happen in this decade (2020s), and probably not in the next 10 years or so, but if they can come up with competitors for ASML and TSMC, it'd be a massive opportunity for anyone who gets in early. Going back to Huawei, it's one of the companies that is most promising right now. I don't think Xi prohibiting exports of NVIDIA GPUs, even though they are still getting smuggled into the country, is just him throwing his weight around to get a deal, it's probably more in line with a protectionist push to further incentivize the development of the semiconductor industry in China.

Joejoecornrow

IBKR say they have a whopping 973 spce shares for short. This is gona pop tomorow imo. All my cash is tied up in ASML atm, it’s 60+% of port and not selling.

94Rangerbabe

I’m up 66.7% from May 2. Finally figuring out a system. Swing trade (w/Mu and MRVL core pos) $MU $MRVL $AVGO $CRWD $MDB $StX $AMAT $ASML $LITE

JackieChanX95

Before AMD, ASML? Doubt

tke248

ASML — lithography / semi-cap equipment — **A- / B+**. Obvious, but unavoidable. It’s the machine layer that makes leading-edge AI chips possible.

iostack

What about ASML?

tke248

ASML — lithography / semi-cap equipment — **A- / B+**. Obvious shovel, but still one of the most critical. It’s basically the machine that makes the machines.

BigAnt3645

ASML

elgrandorado

That's frustrating for you. Samsung's biggest business unit, even before this current semi cycle was their memory fabs. I looked at them in passing before investing in ASML, and never imagined this sort of demand for memory. Hard to kick yourself without knowing how this cycle would play out. You got in on SNDK though, which has absolutely ridden this wave.

corndog_messiah

Nobody talks about the actual goat ASML

Terrible-Deer1398

Europoors pump ASML every night only for it lose its gains during the day

Maleficent_While2653

VXUS top holdings are TSMC, Samsung, ASML, and SK Hynix, among others in various industries. I would keep it as a large portion of my portfolio just for that. There is a lot of value outside of the US and way more depth in comparison (the US is pretty much only driven by AI spending and semiconductor stocks at this point).

Etherius

No one is hoping for those plans to pan out more than me. I’ve been an INTC bag holder since 2019. But I have no delusions. These fabs take a long time to get up and running And frankly if the world knew about some of the holes in ASML’s supply chain I think we’d all kinda shit ourselves a little bit

jpgnewman195

Today I bought $VOO $ASML $AMAT $LRCX

BassFull0

https://preview.redd.it/50q9fb5u1o4h1.jpeg?width=1672&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7fc733705cc14a71671d178b4f3a1aa6d0197b0a Calls on INTC MSFT ASML TSMC

FalseDiamond7930

Biggest positions are Google, ASML, AMD, SONY, RKLB, Nintendo. I have 30 US stocks, 15 Japanese stocks, 13 from other countries (no Chinese stocks).

kgangadhar

I mean, isn't it how moat work? ASML, no one can do what they are doing, same with SpaceX. Not that I agree with SpaceX's valuation. But they do have moat on couple of things.

jaajaajaa6

You have a lot of duplicate stocks across these accounts. Nothing prevents you from selling a piece, especially the ones that have had a great run. Just remember, the first AI hiccup and many high fliers will give a lot back. Nothing wrong with selling 1/3 or so of a TSM or ASML and playing with house money.

WhyAreYallFascists

Dog, they have fabs running. The best tools on the fucking planet are in said fabs. There isn’t anywhere to get those tools soon, ASML cannot make them fast enough. It’s much closer than you think homie. 

Joejoecornrow

ASML

cwalking2

> I've been following Intel since the 90s. Me, too. I designed semiconductors for a decade. > They didn't stumble at all > They didn't stumble at all I don't know how you can say this. The 14nm transition was plagued with challenges, and 10nm is where they shot their dick right off. None of that had been _preceded_ with deep cuts to their process division (_i.e.:_ pre-2015). They just failed... and failed and failed and failed. > Intel had the very first (and for quite a while, only) R&D EUV machine outside of ASML ... when the first commercial machines started rolling out of ASML, Intel had bought practically all the supply for an entire year. This was back in 2024 TSMC offered EUV lithography for mass production in [2019](https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2010) (N7+ node) EUV was a strategic and execution misstep for Intel. For 14nm and 10nm, Intel chose to continue with 193nm lithography, but that forced the use of multi-patterning (multiple exposures per mask layer). For 14nm, it was dual-patterning, then later growing to quad-patterning for 10nm. If successful, multi-patterning would represent a cost advantage for Intel over everyone else in the industry. Unfortunately, it didn't work out; Intel was plagued with high defects, poor yields, and poor outcomes at both 14nm and 10nm. It's not enough to point at this and claim "Intel chose to cut corners." It was a strategic decision which didn't work out. They thought they could engineer their way through the complexity, but failed. In contrast, Intel's avoidance of partially-depleted silicon-on-insulator in the 2000s in favour of standard, bulk silicon (cheaper, lower inherent performance) worked out just fine for them, giving them (yet another) cost advantage over AMD.

FullstackSensei

I've been following Intel since the 90s. R&D going up nominally doesn't mean there weren't cuts. There were several rounds of layoffs in R&D, several strategic mistakes were made (like the exit from the mobile market), capex on equipment and facilities didn't go up as much as originally planned (especially compared to the industry). You're looking at a chart after the fact. I'm talking about repeated quarterly reports where senior management announced cancelation of projects and layoffs in R&D. You don't see that in a bar chart. They didn't stumble at all. Successive penny-pinching CEOs squandered a 3 year lead in manufacturing vs the industry and turned it into a 3 year lag between 2010 and 2019. 22nm was 6 months late. 14nm was about a year late (excluding the previous 6 month delay). Repeated layoffs in senior engineering positions to save costs led to the bottom falling off of 10nm. Ice Lake was supposed to come in 2015, but was pushed back 6-12 months every 6-12 months for 5 years. Cascade Lake and Cooper Lake were the penny pinches trying to salvage the situation at minimal cost. The Intel you see today is the result of over $100B spent between 2020 and now, mainly Pat Gelsinger's plan to bring things back on track. He re-hired a lot of the old guard that were let go during the past decade to save costs. You don't see those $100B in an R&D chart alone. There was a ton of capex "catch-up" the company had to do. Just as an example, Intel had the very first (and for quite a while, only) R&D EUV machine outside of ASML. They run 2-4 weeks behind ASML's internal R&D for over 3 years, and when the first commercial machines started rolling out of ASML, Intel had bought practically all the supply for an entire year. This was back in 2024. By the time the first machines were installed in a fab, Intel had run something like 30k wafers through that R&D machine. This level of expenditure is what tanked the stock in the past few years, but enabled the company to roll out 4 nodes in 5 years (not counting 10nm), which is unheard of in the industry. They didn't stumble at all. They shot themselves in the foot by diverting money that should have gone to R&D and capex into stock buy backs.

Ziegelmarkt

>\- When do you sell a winner? Depends on a lot of factors like which account it's in and what the purpose of that account is. I have both IRAs, the household brokerage we live off of and a "slush" account that I use for vacations, cars, whatever. But normally I'll consider selling when it starts to plateau and there is another opportunity. LIke NVDA for example. Yes they're ***\_the\_*** dominant name in semiconductors/chips but if you ignore the April Boom they were actually very very flat YTD. The same can be said for a lot of stocks obviously, but I was surprised the largest company in that space was flat. I had them since 2023 so I went ahead and trimmed at first and then finally sold my remaining shares in order to buy more in to MU, ASML and SNDK. >\- Do you ever take gains for things like a vacation, home project, or car? Yes, see above though. That slush account is valued around $200k, but since it's also in a taxable brokerge I need to be diligent about keeping track of capital gains. But short answer, yes, why else be growing my money if I'm not going to spend it frivolously? >\- What do you do with losers? Give them a while to see if they're showing signs of rebounding. Otherwise I have no qualms at all selling for tax loss harvesting or just cutting them loose to chase after something else. >\- Do I need to rebalance? \- Are any of these positions no longer worth holding? I'm not going down that rabbit hole with your money. Like my example above with NVDA; that was the right decision for me with my money at that point in time. You have it in three of your accounts because you "like it". If it's working for you, leave it be.

YourRumAndThumb_Umm

Really? ASML sucks? Like the only research and manufacture in the world of the current and next gen semiconductor manufacturing machines... ok

Timid-Tiger

|HOLDING|WEIGHT| |:-|:-| |Fidelity Index World Class P Acc|28.2%| |iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF|15.6%| |iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors ETF|8.8%| |Vanguard US 500 Stock Index Instl|7.6%| |iShares MSCI EM Asia UCITS ETF|5.8%| |Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF|5.6%| |Marvell Technology Inc|5.3%| |Global X Defence Tech UCITS ETF|3.0%| |First Trust Nasdaq Smart Grid ETF|1.7%| |Amphenol Corp Class A|1.7%| |iShares Physical Gold ETC|1.6%| |Xtrackers MSCI Korea Index ETF|1.6%| |LVMH Moet Hennessy (CDI)|1.4%| |[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc|1.4%| |ASML Holding NV|1.3%| |Vistra Corp|1.2%| |Constellation Energy Corp|1.2%| |Arista Networks Inc|1.2%| |iShares Physical Silver ETC|1.1%| |Apollo Global Management|0.8%| |Arthur J. Gallagher & Co|0.8%| |KKR & Co Inc|0.6%| |Novo Nordisk B|0.6%| |Alibaba Group Holding ADS|0.4%| |Walt Disney Co|0.3%| |Enphase Energy Inc|0.3%| |PayPal Holdings Inc|0.1%| |Cash|0.9%| | |100.0%|

RadiantReason2063

Alibaba, which has the most popular open source LLM (QWen) has a market cap of 300B and revenue of 150B. Also, ASML which is pivotal to the AI ecosystem: mktcap of 600B, revenue of 40B (estimate for '26) Meanwhile Anthropic and OpenAI are yet to make a profit, are under constant attack by Google, and are valued in the trillions. The bubble is mostly American.

cyclosciencepub

TSMC moat is lower than ASML's

Master-Weight-2676

China has a massive project to break it's dependence on TSMC and ASML in the coming decade. That would greatly reduce the cost for China if it can afford losing access to both of these companies after invading Taiwan.

Mag_Meyreddit

Bro read about TSMC yesterday and decided to write a book about it. Man we know. But you know about Intel and Samsung? They are also producing Chips within the sub 2 nanometer node and they do have gate all around and backside power delivery transistor technology, which TSMC currently does not have yet. Also Intel will use the new ASML High NA EUV Litography machines. TSMC does not… There is a reason the entire industry looks for alternatives. Finally if China is really going to invade Tiwan, that’s even more bullish for Samsung and Intel and very bearish vor TSMC.

GeneralOwn5333

Small customer base. ASML is a price taker not a price marker.

teddpole

At the start of year I tried to diversify myself away from US market. I put money in 1211 (BYD), ASML and some in SNDK. I told myself I am not gonna touch it until 31 march. At quarter end (the ceasefire was on horizon), SNDK had a good run, ASML was mehhh and 1211 was horrendous. I kept thinking through April what to do (meanwhile SAAS was getting murdered). By April end it was okay to assume that war will not rage like last time so I chose high beta stocks namely RKLB and RDDT (1/3rd each). I will hold RKLB until SPACEX IPO. RDDT still has lot of room till analyst’s estimate so hold that too. Their financials are too good to be this low. My last 1/3rd is MSFT. I think SAAS fear was overblown. I myself use codex and claude code and believe it’s a long way before they replace office suite. So yeah there it is https://preview.redd.it/ef2wnev7794h1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=661e0edf2acf0d5c3f10b27c02336d9a97267ad4

Complex-Parfait-9831

What is ASML then?

inseend1

And what about ASML?

Junior-Valuable2071

Yea I’m the same way. I did some stock picking at the beginning of 2025 and just closed the positions out at the beginning of this year. Made some juicy gains on Google, ASML, and Robinhood. (Not as juicy as some of the MU gains people have been making but I digress) The Robinhood took a massive shit making me glad I paperhanded them lmfao. You just never know.

birdwatching25

If we're talking about moat, I'd say ASML has the biggest moat of all. No ASML, no TSMC, no Intel, no Samsung, no nothing.

SnookyMcdoodles

Wait till this guys learns about ASML

elgrandorado

Thanks! Yeah I went dumpster diving after moving out of the semi trade with ASML in Q1 this year. I also sold some short term laggards that I just didn't follow quite enough (the ratings agencies). I've been trying to take an approach closer to that which Peter Lynch suggests, which is to invest in what you know. Investing in a GOOG or FIG has been much easier to understand and manage for me. Same with RDDT & MELI, which are companies I or my family regularly interact with. Better to invest in what I know, than to invest in companies that I looked at that I just couldn't wrap my head around (BN & CSGP were two of those which I studied for years that I never got comfortable with). It took me like two months of research in 2022 to fully get into the mechanics of ASML, and the drawdowns on that one were frustrating to stomach. I made money back in 2023/2024 with NOW and I never fully wrapped my head around that one as well. I'll probably also rotate out of a couple of holdings that I still only understand peripherally

InquisitorCOC

I see FOMO has arrived At this stage, I'm a lot more bullish on $MSFT, $NVDA, and $ORCL If Jensen finally convinced Morris Chang to be more aggressive during his much publicized trip to Taiwan, $ASML would benefit a lot

RandomC6

Why did you include AMAT but not LRCX, KLAC, ASML?

Raidlos

A friend bought ASMI instead of ASML so this will surely work

djingo_dango

ASML doesn’t design chips neither make chips. They build equipment for a very particular part of chip development. So that’s not really relevant

TechIsTheFuture26

Stop "trading" and start holding long term. I did a deep dive into Micron and chatgpt told me that memory was the next big shortage (before the market realized). I bought in several thousand $$ and since then it's my largest holding. In MU at 200. This is my thesis: As time goes on, we're only going to get technologically more advanced. We are still going to need CPUs, GPUs, RAM, etc. Invest in the entire supply chain and you will crush the SP500. ASML, TSMC, MU, NVDA, etc.

SpiritualClub4417

Yeah we’ll see about that. ASML certainly contributes to process development but chip design I don’t think is really a competence. They know more than Mistral does and can help advise for sure.

MandingoPants

one time I lost 64k on SPY puts. 10 min later I would have been up around 116k.  I still laugh about it from time to time I also had ASML 1000s when it was at 700 (sold too early, obv). I also has 1,250 shares of AMD that I sold too early.  And so on and so forth.  All this to say, there's always a next play. 

Strong-Room-9244

Wait, isn't ASML, TSMC missing from SOXX?

JPL_WSB_BRRRRR

Few of them have 11% ASML ownership. With such backing you don't really have money or know how issues, just execution.

CD274

Yes but more importantly it requires machines from ASML to package and stack the layers, and those machines and servicing previous EUV machines, are under export ban to China. China is making HBM for their domestic supply through other methods, slower and less efficient and less accurate. So the HBM moat actually relies more on that export ban and the Match act if it passes. (Nand and Sandisk's profits are way likelier to be under fire sooner)

GronktheStonk

Thank you! And congrats on ASML! Before I went more growth, ASML being a dividend growth stock would have been right up my alley. Yeah, there’s one guy I follow on X (asklivermore) who has been pretty spot on with sector rotations. We are in a little bit of an interesting super cycle where psychologically people want to get off the ride of AI, but I think it’s still early innings and something more permanent than just a phase

BenjMayNe

Awesome to hear, congrats on the gains! I missed out on MU, INTC, and ARM - had MU/INTC on the buy list but never pulled the trigger. I have been in ASML since 1/25 though. As a recent NBIS holder (since $80s) I’m happy to see Leopold’s recent purchases of that name - was only a matter of time based on his track record. Any content creators you track at all for ideas?

GronktheStonk

Appreciate it! AMD, MU, NVDA, and INTC have been great winners. Loaded up on ARM in 2025, so that’s been a big winner, but missed the ASML ride. Still holding INTC, ARM, NVDA, and MU. A lot of the insight was my own thinking of how the future demand will be driven, but really looked into AI after reading Leopold’s paper back in 2024. That helped me focus on semis/compute

eoworm

i think semiconductors are the parallel industry, and bottleneck of AI. sure NVDA can design the chip architecture, TSM has the factories, ASML is the only company making the EUV chip making machines, and papa elon wants to blow all of them out of the water eventually with his terrafab idea- which could eventually extend its operations *off world*. but right now i'd just like for charts to make sense, it really looks like something big is about to happen... but for good or bad i dunno.

HgnX

HOVR, NOKIA, RCAT, KTOS, probably ASML hitting 1450 plus

Bladings

ASML sells the shovels (lithography machines) to the guys selling the shovels to the guys selling the shovels. Other than that, Helium suppliers.

Total-Savings6385

ASML getting pumped in European hours and nuked during American sessions is getting on my nerves

QuitsFeather

ASML. Micron should not be almost double their market cap..

nigelnyc1

PG +5, HD +10, V +4, UNH +6, ARM -15, ASML -35....seems like rebalancing is underway.

gnetc

I left Robinhood originally because I couldn’t buy ASML a few years ago, they’re garbage.

Legitimate-Painter-4

Everyone sleeps on ASML till we wake up and its at 2k one day

ez399017

I bought some NVDA, NBIS, ASML, BMO today, my port is 80% MU right now though

Brave_Suggestion945

SK makes top of the line HBM with Samsung and Micron just behind. Samsung is also unique in the way it also designs all types of chips too albeit obviously not at Nvidia level for AI but incredibly broad. Then we have ASML supplying EUV machines to all these companies basically can't manufacture without.

Clear_Judge5062

I think the companies that have near monopolies in the semi industry & are also booked out on orders for years will inevitably trade well for the next 2 years, if not longer: TSM, ASML, MU, ASX, GEV, VRT

Scalpaholic

Zuck could've taken a the CapEx since Metaverse and vertically integrated their own ASML/MU. Would've been competing with Nvidia and Amazon AWS by now.

Verghaust

I shall have you know that my port is semi heavy. Only problem its NVDA and ASML. Fml.

Zuitsdg

SpaceX by itself should be worth 500-1000billion just by their Rocket Launch and Star link business For xAI I would deduct valuation - it is a money drain But why will I still invest at 2000 billion valuation? Terrafab. It’s ambitious, but if anyone, SpaceX would be able to strive toward such a goal. If they manage to recreate the whole data center chain, it could become a rival for ASML + TSMC + Nvidia + AWS basically. Probability of success until 2030? Maybe 30%, probability until 2040? 80%. Valuation if it becomes a reality? Easy >10000 billion If anyone really doesn’t believe in it; get short to negate your ETF participation. You life will continue as if SpaceX doesn’t exist.

wolololord

Let it run then. Your investments are massively outperforming the student loan rate. They're not even that risky, given that ASML is the only single stock you've listed

ApprehensiveLetter17

I've been invensting (buying ETFS) for about 18 months now. On ETF's that historically have a anual return of about 10 to 15% I'm currently on a return of 60% (40% 2 months ago 50% one month ago). Granted my actual etf ROI is about 40% because one stock went 2.1x. I know for the most of you this is chump change but my 10k investments are now 16k. I've always kept to the mantra only invest money you're willing to lose and this is the case but the amount of "profit" I've made right now seems like too good to pass up and take all of my money out of the market. I can still easily pay all my bills and I have an emergency fund of about 10k Is this amount of outperformance worth getting out of the market and waiting for things to cool down? Some of my ETF's are (and yes I know these are a lot of ETF's but I like diversifying my diversification) Global Defence tech +31% Ishare Edge MSCI Wld +36.88 Ishares Gold producers +44.1% S&P 500 tech (thinking of getting out of this one) +49% Vangaurd S&P 500 +26% ASML stock +122%

ApprehensiveLetter17

I've been invensting (buying ETFS) for about 18 months now. On ETF's that historically have a anual return of about 10 to 15% I'm currently on a return of 60% (40% 2 months ago 50% one month ago). Granted my actual etf ROI is about 40% because one stock went 2.1x. I know for the most of you this is chump change but my 10k investments are now 16k. I've always kept to the mantra only invest money you're willing to lose and this is the case but the amount of "profit" I've made right now seems like too good to pass up and take all of my money out of the market. I can still easily pay all my bills and I have an emergency fund of about 10k Is this amount of outperformance worth getting out of the market and waiting for things to cool down? Some of my ETF's are (and yes I know these are a lot of ETF's but I like diversifying my diversification) Global Defence tech +31% Ishare Edge MSCI Wld +36.88 Ishares Gold producers +44.1% S&P 500 tech (thinking of getting out of this one) +49% Vangaurd S&P 500 +26% ASML stock +122%

moniker89

the US would probably be able to get silicon production online a lot faster than China, though. China is at least 5 years behind being able to replicate TSMC's production capabilities (this honestly sounds REALLY aggressive), whereas TSMC already has a strong foothold in the US, and we have Intel + are allies w/ SK (Samsung), with those latter two being the only true other fab companies that exist. plus consider that all TSMC engineers are fleeing to the US and speedrunning getting everything set up here, and ASML being all in on helping the US become the new Taiwan and having little interest in helping China. if you think China is 6-12 months behind on AI model development, if TSMC gets blown up, China would probably be at least 3 years behind the US on chips/AI. more i think about it, more i think it would be an extremely boneheaded move to invade.

rieux1990

the remote kill switch on those machines are controlled by ASML, with presumably decision input from the US, so this falls in scenario #1 for me as in China gets naval and air superiority over the island within days, ASML and the US are pressured by the economy to turn a blind eye, because let's face it, everyone wants business to continue, no one in the west really cares about the island besides cia bots and redditors with a moral superiority complex the other comment from u/sicklyslick has a good point too, it's a stupid tactic, because worst case is the west is now crippled while china brings up their own slightly outdated fabs

Maleficent_While2653

The entire global market is being driven by AI, whether you like it or not. You can diversify all you want, it's still AI driving your portfolio. Most of VOO is completely flat except for the AI stocks. Even the top names in VXUS are companies like TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and ASML.

FirstAtEridu

Honestly, ASML seems more "alien technology" than the shit conspiracy theoriests were talking about in the 80s and 90s.

NegativeDCF

Nah China needs to be able to buy ASML machines.

pingoo26

ASML up 1% today.

CommercialWeakness22

I also have some larger cap companies I have invested in based on them being undervalued based on PE ratio (bought Amazon at the start of the year) or based on a sudden downturn on news that are overdone (bought ASML back in July last year at around 730 a share, have held most of my position there). When Trump was first elected first thing I did was buy GLDM and IXUS. Sold GLDM back on April 2nd of 2025 at about 40% gain and redistributed my gains across all my other holdings.

minammikukin

How much ASML ASM and BESI should I order to buy before the market opens in Amsterdam with NY and Korea closed???? Mostly serious question...

Moepenmoes

I have a position in ASML

Zuitsdg

I would assume a mix of everything. But for me the following are most Important: Key Player for Future Space Infrastructure in the 2030s onward with SpaceX and Starship I would got for 500billion on that bet alone and and even Starlink could grow into that valuation. xAI is okay - Grok can be good, and a bit less restricted compared to other frontier models - but it really isn’t profitable and will probably loose more money in the following years. Would value it at 50 billion maybe, in case it does make some profit anytime in the future. But now the big business case: Terrafab. It will probably take a decade to be scaling and profitable, but SpaceX IPO should bring in the necessary cash. Creating the full cycle, from chip Fabs, to chip design, and deployment of the infrastructure in space. It’s an insane technical step to walk, but probability of it succeeding is above 50% from my point of view. And if SpaceX will be deploying datacenters with 24/7 solar energy, without atmosphere & night blocking parts the sun. It’s basically going for ASML (fab production), TSMC (chip production), NVIDIA (chip design), Amazon (chip usage/renting), Anthropic (training ai) And by having the whole stack in house, iterations can be quicker, Elons fail fast approach may allow them to get running within 3-5 years or so. Starlink satellites are produced already. Currently, I would value it lower, but I can see it as a being valued at 1500 billion, for being a 30% shot at a 10 trillion future market :D But who knows. I will enter with 2000€ or so at IPO and grow it to 10k€ within the first few years. (Double down until we reach the rock bottom) It will be a play for 2035-2050.

fallingdowndizzyvr

> Short of completely ripping off ASML But they aren't. They are using a novel way of doing it distinctly different from ASML. From your link. "The machines fire lasers at molten tin 50,000 times per second, generating plasma at 200,000 degrees Celsius." That's LDP. ASML is LPP. > I'm skeptical they are even 5-10 years behind, likely more. That's what people said about China producing 7nm chips. Until they did. That's why it was the 7nm surprise.

Legitimate-Sock2188

People don't understand that the technology is in ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLA if the companies were prevented from supplying TSMC that would be the end of TSMC. Just takes awhile to build new fabs that is the issue with this but if China tries to take Taiwan, those fabs will be useless I am sure they must know this.

Creative_Account8483

Huawei puts out dummy chips with fake numbers to save face for China, but the reality is that without ASML litho machines, they are 5-10 years behind. China might manage to steal the tech (they are desperately trying, and IMO they eventually will), but until that happens, they will never catch up. Inb4 “CHINA DOESNT STEAL!!!”. Yes, they do, relentlessly. There are entire industries founded on stolen american IP. Source: father in law works high up at a chemical engineering firm that does international business. They mark up prices to the Chinese because they know, eventually, the IP will be leaked/stolen

wighty

Last I read anything about it was at the end of 2025: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/ Short of completely ripping off ASML I'm skeptical they are even 5-10 years behind, likely more.

pirateRoyallty

ASML

Signal-Shoe-6670

If you already own a global index fund and want some concentrated AI exposure, I’d personally rather own the infrastructure chokepoints than the speculative edge names. TSMC and ASML are interesting because they sit underneath almost the entire advanced compute stack. TSMC manufactures chips for Nvidia, Apple, Google, AMD, Broadcom, Amazon, etc. ASML supplies the EUV lithography machines required to produce leading-edge chips not just for TSMC, but also Intel, Samsung, Micron, SK hynix, and others. There are real risks (especially geopolitics with Taiwan), but these are deeply embedded, hard-to-replace companies with enormous technical and ecosystem moats, and expanding. That feels very different to me than betting on who wins speculative quantum computing 10 years from now.

ForsakenExternal5784

People constantly hail ASML as the holy grail of engineering (and I agree it’s crazy impressive) but making a commercially viable quantum computer will make that look like building a sandcastle. I don’t think people quite understand the task of trying to scale up what is an already faulty 1000 qubit processor to 500,000 to work seamlessly enough to do real work. I like the prospect of quantum computing generations from now, but I think people who are terrified of it being right around the corner are sorely mistaken.

encony

ASML made +15% since OP posted - yep turned out well!

Crafty_Tip3558

ASML when I realized they are the absolute top of all AI. Like literally everything starts with and comes back to ASML. Not only that, but they have a complete monopoly on EUV technology. I saw a YouTube video about them and understand (as much as I can) why their research and technology are just generations beyond what any company will ever be able to achieve.

Not69Batman

NVDA Gross Margin was 74.9% in the latest quarter. TSMC Gross Margin was 66.2% in the latest quarter. 20% of TSMC revenue comes from NVDA. ASML Gross Margin was 53% in the latest quarter. 45% of ASML revenue comes from TSMC.