ASML

SpareMaize9237

ASML doesn't make machines, make some parts of the machine and It has the patent or design to create them, the machine took decades to be built, they wont rent It like if they were industrialized on mass scale, It does not pay royalties perse it's just a way of saying a fee like you did

MD_Yoro

ASML is the lithograph machine company, TSMC just buys the machine from ASML to make chips for other companies. TSMC does not pay royalties to ASML, they pay a service fee to have the machines serviced and the initial purchase of the machine How are you this confused? You don’t pay a royalty on the shovel that you bought

SpareMaize9237

TSMC Is the photolitography company that owns the machine that his chief scientist leader H.S wong helped creating with the patent ASML invented, so they make the 90% of chips supply worldwide, Nvidia, AMD, Intel makes de design then they pass that design to TSMC, they mass produce the chips to them, TSMC get the money, then they pay a royalty to ASML for the use of their invention, if the invention gets leaked like happened, investors lose money

MD_Yoro

ASML is a Dutch company that makes lithography machines for the production of IC chips, but they don’t know how to make an AI chip. Stock value flows to investors, but they aren’t paying tax to the U.S..

SpareMaize9237

And who had the patent? ASML, and who owns most of ASML stocks(Blackrock and Vanguard), the money flows to U.S.A Banks, and the tax money to the state

xAlpharaptor

More info: The real risk is "Economic Failure." The chance that Intel gets the machine to work but loses money on every chip it prints is a very real 30-40% risk. This is exactly why TSMC decided to wait. They aren't afraid the machine won't turn on; they are afraid it will bankrupt them. Here is the "Physics Breakdown" of the three specific ways this bet could blow up in Intel's face. 1. The "Stitching" Nightmare (The Half-Field Problem) This is the single biggest technical risk. The Physics: To make the lens sharper (High NA), ASML had to shrink the "Field of View" by half. The Consequence: A standard Nvidia GPU (like the H100) is too big to fit in one shot. The Danger: Intel has to print the left half of the chip, move the machine, and print the right half, then "Stitch" them together perfectly. The Risk: If that alignment is off by even 1 nanometer, the circuit is broken, and the chip is trash. TSMC's Bet: TSMC believes "Stitching" will kill yields (resulting in too many dead chips). Intel believes they can master it. If Intel is wrong, their yield on AI chips will be terrible. 2. The "Depth of Focus" Trap (The Flatness Problem) High-NA lenses have an incredibly shallow "Depth of Focus" (like a camera lens set to f/1.2). The Physics: The slice of space where the image is sharp is 3x thinner than current machines. The Danger: The silicon wafer must be perfectly flat. If the wafer has a microscopic bump or warp, the image goes out of focus. The Risk: This requires an insane level of "Process Control" (polishing the wafers). If Intel's manufacturing team isn't perfect, the images will be blurry. 3. The "Cost" Equation (The 2.5x Rule) This is the Economic Physics. The Math: One "High-NA" exposure costs 2.5x more than a standard exposure (because the machine costs $380M). The Intel Thesis: "We will save money because 1 High-NA shot replaces 4 Standard shots (Multi-Patterning)." Equation: 1 High-NA ($2.50) < 4 Standard ($4.00). Profit. The Risk: If Intel can't actually replace 4 steps—if they still need to do extra cleanup steps—the math collapses. They could end up paying premium prices for a chip that TSMC builds cheaper with old tools.

cowboyup99

$ASML out of business ?

magicfitzpatrick

ASML has significant operations in the U.S., including two factories and three R&D centers, alongside numerous customer support sites, making it a major development and manufacturing hub for chipmakers

Bloated_Plaid

All in on ASML and call it a day.

MrAkimoto

One day China will take Taiwan. It's inevitable. President Xi Jinping said it would happen, and I don't doubt it. However, I doubt all the baloney about the collapse of the chip making industry. BTW, you should do some research into the Chinese AI industry. It appears that the country has adopted wide use of AI technology in every aspect of their citizen's lives. No one can destroy technology. If something happens to the fabrication facilities at TSCM, someone else will quickly pick up the mantle. It also doesn't make any sense, because it makes money for a lot of people including the Chinese who are major trading partners with Taiwan. Also ASML does business with the Chinese, and it doesn't want to lose its business. Always remember it all about money which is nearly everyone's God.

BNA-mod

I wouldn’t be surprised if ASML has its own missile defense system aimed at China. I think the last 50 years has made it perfectly clear… “you touch Taiwan, the USA touch you!”

TotalDebt5868

Short take on the market angle: Linking “US hits Venezuela → China immediately invades Taiwan → advanced chips vanish overnight” feels like an overfitted chain. Whether Beijing moves on Taiwan depends on capabilities and deterrence in the region, not one event elsewhere. Market-relevant points: * Chip risk exists, but ASML kill-switches and a TSMC “scorched earth” scenario are tail risks with heavy political/economic constraints. * Even with escalation, zero supply is unlikely; the U.S., Japan, and SK are expanding capacity. Arizona TSMC helps but can’t backstop leading-edge demand alone. * Exposure matters: handset/AI leaders (AAPL, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, etc.) carry higher near-term headline risk; mature-node heavy or diversified fabs are more resilient; equipment/material names (ASML, AMAT, LRCX) will swing with capex/policy. * Practically, this raises geopolitical risk premia and volatility rather than sending us into a “tech stone age.” Bottom line: take the risk seriously, but don’t price in an immediate Taiwan invasion off today’s Venezuela headlines. Focus on supply-chain mapping, alternative capacity timelines, and how drills/sanctions change volatility.

Kspurlin

Apples to oranges. It's not as simple as taking Taiwan and TSM. There's a lot of supplies needed from outside vendors. ASML is arguably more important than TSM. Especially considering a takeover would likely result in damages that China would need time and outside help to repair. Without outside help they would have long delays. The rest of the world would catch up quickly. Sure it damages the world economy significantly and potentially gives China a technological advantage for a while if they can continue to run the plant. But tech grows fast and nobody is going to help them. EUV machines are maybe the most complicated and advanced machines humans have made. I just don't see how it's a win for them other than crashing everything and hoping to come out on top.

fallingdowndizzyvr

> People seem to forget the silicon shield failsafes. ASML has remote kill switches for their machines, and Taiwan has practically confirmed they would scorch-earth the TSMC foundries before letting the PLA take them intact. > > If that happens, 90% of advanced chips don't just get expensive, they vanish. Overnight. I guess you don't realize that would leave China the largest maker of advanced chips in the world. So you just gave China another reason to do it.

caem123

I made the choice to put my 15yr savings into International ex-China large cap (example: RERFX) * less risk of overvaluation because the companies have lower PE ratios * JP Morgan recommends them because they have more reasonable valuations and less chance of deep crashes * JP Morgan admits their earnings growth is smaller than earnings growth of US large cap * many popular brands: Toyota, Nestle, etc. * large moat companies: ASML, AirBus, etc. * much of their sales are in the U.S. so they benefit from US growth

CODEX_LVL5

You do know that two of ASML's factories for their highest end lithography machines are made in the US right? We will make chips ourselves. They may not be as good as TSMC's, but they also don't need to be.

m0nk_3y_gw

Intel? ASML has a chip fab in Arizona

Arn_Thor

China is not in a hurry to take Taiwan by force. They keep improving their local semiconductor production, ever so slowly narrowing the lead from ASML both in direct technology and in smarter application of older process nodes. Why rush? Especially when, as you say, the cost risks being very high for the world including China.

Ok_Juggernaut3043

Hers are: NVDA, VRT, ASML, UAL, AMZN Mine are: AVGO, NBIS, RKLB, APLD, GOOGL

Yetkha

Well at least you have 21k left. You could've bought 1100 Call options of ASML (right after Veritasium Youtube video came out on Wed ) for $50 each x 100 contracts for total of $5000 and sold them back for $6700 each x100 = $670,000. In fact you did not even need 21k.

Delicious-Tank-5404

AMD, Samsung, ASML

GreedyTexas

ASML options went up 16,000% lol

Ok-Buy-9777

Is this why ASML got such a jump also?

StonklordBenno

ASML is just ripping

greg_r_

I'm going to regret not selling all my semis aren't I. I'm 200% up on $MU, and also so green on LRCX and ASML. Sold a bunch last year, so I wouldn't fully regret not taking more profits, but it's going to hurt if semis crash this year and I have to wait another year or so for the semiconductor cycle to rise again...

Ceyenne18

why not? if boomer ASML can go +8.8% .....

Ceyenne18

Tanking? TSM +5%, ASML + 8.8%, MU +8.9% ......

CarbonParrot

If you aren't buying ASML what are you even doing with your life?

Intelligent-Grape-12

Thanks to NBIS and ASML I am still positive

DaySecure7642

Elon was really naive years ago, letting the competitors use the IPs for free out of altruistic goals, and setting up factories in China that grew their supply chains. He may be very smart but not cunning enough to see the risks. Now it is too late. All the hard work on R&D wasted, unemployment for Western workers, and China wont even acknowledge his role and just kick Tesla out of the market. Yet another great lesson to learn from for other western companies, together with similar shortsighted cases like ASML selling lithographers, and Japan selling high speed train techs to China. Seeking short term profit and risk losing the whole market is just dumb business strategy.

wkgko

I'm starting to think selling ASML and TSM for AMZN and MSFT a few days ago wasn't the genius move I had intended.

Ok_Mistake_5795

What do you expect from ASML? Sell or hold.

elgrandorado

I sold 70% of my stake back in November. I once listened to Aswath Damodaran mention diversifying by cutting your exposure but letting a portion run if it helps mentally. Feels good to be up 15% on a position I've essentially set aside. Memory takes away from Nintendo, then gives it to ASML in my book.

Michael_Bhurewala

ASML please give your tech to Gyna to fuck up the US markets 🍆🍆🍆🍆🍆 EU giant kawk

UnObtainium17

Took profits on a portion of my ASML. Let me get this Aqua Terra.

Celticsmoneyline

That YouTube video totally pumped ASML

ThisIsMyRedditAcct20

What happened with ASML?!?

masteroflich

There was a new documentary about ASML over the weekend that might have hyped up some folks

DaySecure7642

Elon was really naive years ago, letting the competitors use the IPs for free out of altruistic goals, and setting up factories in China that grew their supply chains. He may be very smart but not cunning enough to see the risks. Now it is too late. All the hard work on R&D wasted, unemployment for Western workers, and China wont even acknowledge his role and just kick Tesla out of the market. Yet another great lesson to learn from other western companies, together with similar shortsighted cases like ASML selling lithographers, and Japan selling high speed train techs to China. Seeking short term profit and risk losing the whole market is just dumb business strategy.

Th3Gr33nBastard

Yeah that video literally made me look into ASML yesterday haha

LabyrinthLayers

ASML 1145c 165,000% lmaoo

masteroflich

ASML off to a great start

Regardium-Leviosa

Veritasium pumping ASML by 5%. Lovely

dickrichardson6969

ASML through the roof. age of the Europoor is upon us.

awetfartruinedmylife

This is Europes year. Look at ASML

wright_on_

god damn ASML

LumpyShock9656

Waiting for ASML to get rug pulled at open

Ancient_Sort5820

ASML up 6% off no news? 🥵

justonemoretimelol

Tech behind ASML, pretty fascinating ^

Ok-Poetry-4721

ASML

No-Improvement3164

ASML?

ramy_mousa

naaah, that was to document that 2025 was the last year ASML was unique at what they do right before china starts exporting the pipeline to every country on the planet

gotcreme

is ASML mooning after that documentary about how mindfucking complex their machines are

corndog_messiah

BESI, AIXA, SMHN, ASML for example

Substantial-Lawyer91

I’ve not been in any US equities for the entire year but I’m 30% up for 2025 - specifically carried by Baba, Nu and ASML. Interesting to see if this ex-US trend continues.

CFDsForFun

Almost exact same. Google was my biggest position. Had ASML as well. Also just bought NVO last week

AtheIstan

Bullshit, China mandated 'localization' long before US export controls. I agree that the US export controls are not smart and force self-sufficiency (see: ASML example), but it does not affect China's long term strategy much, only accelerates slightly.

JPL_WSB_BRRRRR

Laughs in ASML 600€ AVG.

Eight_square

Thanks for the insightful comment. It’s rare to see such in-depth discussion on this subreddit nowadays. May I clarify your point: you mean TSMC will fall behind competition because they don’t buy the high NA EUV from ASML while Samsung and Intel did? Currently, TSMC is maxed out on capacity. Don’t you foresee it will continue to max out its capacity in the next few years? If so, the bottleneck of growth will be its manufacturing capacity and profit margin, and not necessarily market share? From my understanding, TSMC thinks high NA EUV is not worth it: TSMC claims they refine their technology to produce similar results, and ASML cannot produce enough to meet TSMC’s demand anyway. As a TSMC investor, I do have concerns about not getting the latest and greatest and letting competitors have it. But I don’t have enough expertise to judge if TSMC’s engineers are right. Intel and Samsung have no choice but to buy from ASML because they do not have the know-how like TSMC. If TSMC can produce the same result without spending 400 million per machine, maybe TSMC can maintain its price competitiveness and even gain market when 1.4nm comes out? And focus their resources to buy the next big thing?

Mannipx

Exactly. They have a very different viewpoint then west. Good luck enforcing it. People were snarking about the euv thing ASML is gonna be left behind while china copy and then improves stuff. 

CFDsForFun

I don’t like it at these prices. Not saying it won’t get going but not worth the risk reward for me. I recently bought a small share in NVO after their pill news and just waiting on sidelines now with maybe 5% of portfolio in cash. But I can sell many winners if I need cash. Google, AMZN, ASML, Reddit are what I did well on last few years.

Heidruns_Herdsman

3d printer the size of a shipping container from ASML.

zordonbyrd

$SNPS or $CDNS - instrumental part of the semiconductor manufacturing process (they supply the design software). $ASML for being maybe the world's only true monopoly and essential for modern chip-making. $ISRG best-in-class surgical robots - going out on a limb, but my guess is that their tech will become more important for more industries over time. $AMZN - the Mag 7 that hasn't really appreciated much over the past several years. Should see margin expansion after the lengthy buildout of their logistics network, growing, high-margin ad business, dominant in cloud and don't count out Trainium and also don't count them out ever since they're so relentlessly focused on growth at almost any cost.

Much_Candle_942

INTC, of course. Always buy on negative news.  ASML is a supplier to a supplier of a supplier of the hyperscalers! Might as well buy materials then, if you go down the value chain.

Vegetable-Bug-9779

While, I can't offer a professional advice, I can tell you what I am doing. Before I invest in any individual stock, I look into numbers. I check revenue, net and operating income,operaring margin, expenses, cash&debt, shares outstanding, free cashflow and more. If I like what I see, I put the company in my watchlist. Then every month I invest in a company from that watchlist where I see disconnection between price and fundamental metrics. I don't look into stories, they are usually short term noise. In the beginning of the year I invested in Google, AMAT, ASML, AMZN. In the last few months I bought more AMZN, SPGI, META, NFLX, MA. I am planning to hold for many years. If you want to see the way I make my research, you can check it in r/stockpickeranalysis. I am posting a lot there. I hope this helps. 10k is not that much money. This loss is something you can learn from. In 10 years you might be thankful for it. Good luck!

Mr_Bonanza

I’m investing in the supply chain: TSM and ASML. TSMC is the only company in the world who can fabricate the chips for nvidia and any of their potential competitors, and ASML is basically the only company who can make the machines that are core to TSMC’s fabrication business… win no matter what happens with AI

fire_alarmist

TSMC probably not gunna be investing in too much new equipment if its just gunna be taken by China huh? Puts on ASML

ArQ7777

Which stock should I choose? If I have to choose one from the three: INTC, TSM and ASML.

Kitchen-Safety4218

Today's concentration mirrors the 1970s "Nifty Fifty" era. Alpha resides in firms commanding the AI infrastructure layer, specifically NVIDIA and ASML. Because these entities control the physical bottlenecks of global compute, they'll likely outpace the broader index's dilution. It's a play on scarcity. So, prioritize hardware moats over speculative software until the credit cycle stabilizes.

WaIlstreetBots

People have been saying that ASML monopoly cannot be breached in 20 years as China has to develop the entire production and logistics chain from the optical glass expertise (Zeiss) to the actual UV technology. Problem is, people severely underestimate China’s capabilities. They not only proved that they have a working prototype EUV machine, but that they can make 3nm chips with it. This all happened within the last month, shit that Bloomberg pundits have been saying is impossible for 20 years. That should tell you everything you need to know. DYOR.

Capable_Wait09

What are the other big names from the top 5 that led to 53%? The most common names I remember are ASML, NVO, LULU, PYPL, and GOOGL. Only Google really made sense to me. Unless you’re using a specific thread where lots of infrequent users commented (like me) so higher performing stocks were overweighted as a result? Like I never see PLTR mentioned in that sub except negatively or ironically as a “degenerate stock”.

Embarrassed_Ad853

Yeah, a lot of us have learned loss using options.  Lost and entire account.  But I learn3d from it and only ever use them for hedging dug in deep amd learned how they work buying and selling calls and puts but not naked anymore and rarely do it.  Mostly in individual stocks.  Keep your head up and keep going stay long and shift quarterly.  I had NVDA when no one knew what is was in 2003.  Id have millions if I would have kept.  You cant follow anything on reddit or get rich quick schemes.  Invest in companies you use, or industries ypu research and understand.  Like I sont touch NVDA because it hurts too much but I do invest in the companies that support it, MU, TSM, ASML.  Look for future tech and research the top 4 companies in those industries, like quantum computing eVTOL, space transportation, AI industries, energy utility companies, Healthcare....look for companies that are no where close to they 52 week highs considsr3d value stocks and do some digging why they went down and determine if those are valid reasons for 30% or 40% declines.  Good luck to.  Ive had multiple accounts down 30-60% and by researching buckling down they've recovered and more.

DefiantDelta

they define it as at least 3 of these occurring within 90 days - NVDA down 50% from ATH, SOXX down 40% from ATH, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI acquired, H100 rentals below $1.00/hr for 5 consecutive days, and/or one supplier (TSM/ASML/AVGO/ANET/SMCI) down 50% from ATH

20half

ASML with there 90% monopoly

Klobbin

ASML

Asrikk

TSM has an absolute vice grip on semiconductor manufacturing. Samsung and Intel are their only real potential competition and Samsung has had issues scaling and fulfilling contracts and Intel arrived very late to the party and are still trying to play catch-up. INTC definitely has the 5x potential IF they can pull the catch-up off. Google and Microsoft both have massive, stable core businesses to build off of which gives them a massive advantage. META is arguably the most forward-thinking consumer-wise, but that's largely at the expense of near-term margins. Their social ads platforms aren't as stable revenue streams as Google's or Microsoft's core businesses IMO. AMZN, AVGO, PLTR, ASML, CRWD are all very heavy growers with their own respective niches in the AI sphere as well.

Strange-Term-4168

ASML controls 100% of EUV lithography machines. Nvidia does not control 100% of chips.

randylush

Yes, ASML is also a monopoly. Believe it or not, it is possible for more than one monopoly to exist in different stages of a supply chain.

Extreme_Sort_3099

This may be an oversimplification. Lithography is the key bottleneck of the chip making process. This is the one key factor that determines how many chips can be made per day, per hour, per year. You could triple your production of source materials or post Lithography machines and still have no change to number of chips made. ASML has a near monopoly on the bottleneck. This means that no matter who wins on the mining side or who wins on the foundry side, ASML stands to gain. Nothing is a sure bet but this is worth a look for sure

nobertan

***No one*** has a roadmap to ‘1nm’, because EUV light wavelength is 12nm. ‘*x* nm’ have been marketing terms for a a while. Improvements have mostly come from FET design vs. feature sizes. N2 node has a gate pitch of 45nm. **N2**’s biggest change is GAA adoption. Finally moving from FinFETs introduced by Intel in 2011. **A16** is **Backside power delivery** (can increase transistor density via less dense power delivery on the front side while also improving efficiency by reduction in crosstalk from the extremely tightly packed power switching) — this the **BIG** one I mentioned. Power usage of chips have been steadily increasing with no abatement over the last 10 years, ***THIS*** will folks address that. Intel are attempting to introduce GAA and Backside power delivery in one process node (as well as finally move to EUV, so a 3rd learning curve there). Predictably, this has already been delayed twice. Slated for scale production 2026/2027 , TSMC’s A16 competitor also slated for 2026/2027 scale production. *If by some miracle they pull it off, they will be a generation ahead. Extremely doubtful given their talent exodus since 2016.l layoffs.* Finally, TSMC have been dominant due to early adoption of EUV, compared with Intels ‘whoopsie’ in buying **none** and being stuck on the 14nm +++ node. ASML’s next iteration of hardware (High-NA EUV) is being ordered by everyone this time, Intel / Samsung / ETC. They’re real ***risks*** to monitor and keep note of. They might be improbable, thanks to Intel perpetually flailing.

PatrickWhelan

Hey a topic I can actually contribute on! I worked for ASML for a decade, as an engineer/engineering manager working on new product introduction for EUV (and the HiNa EUV) from 2014 onward. It has never been a secret that eventually China would make an EUV machine for chip production, they've been locked out of the cutting edge chip manufacturing business by trade policies for as long as I was in the industry, and it's a huge geopolitical risk to not be able to produce high end ICs. They have been working on the tech for over a decade. That being said, this just isn't the type of thing that has "breakthroughs" at this point. There is not going to be a milestone China hits that dramatically changes the picture for ASML, at worst, for ASML, it would be slow erosion of their DUV market share, which funds competitors closing the gap on them over time and catching up with EUV, but these are technologies that take ages to develop, iterate on, refine, and manufacture. Even if you dropped off every the print for every part in an ASML EXE machine in Beijing, to develop fabrication processes for the optics might take a half a decade. Even if you dropped off all the equipment and process knowledge to make the machine, the lead time itself from the first cut of metal and glass is easily 18 months to have something installed and operational. This is just straight up spotting the country every bit of R&D expense. At ASML, the NPI machines being made, just building them required basically bending the laws of physics - I remember one product I worked on we couldn't ship a specific part because it was out of spec by less than 10 ATOMS of material across an entire optical surface. This stuff has armies of PHDs working on every inch of it at this point, you can close the gap, slowly, but there is no leapfrog or shortcut left here. China has WAY more opportunity to eat into the IC market through revolutionary IC design than through closing the gap on litho tooling. They'll knock off companies like $NVDA way before they can knock off a company like $ASML.

Man_to_Men

I just felt like asml had it's runup and reached what I consider a fair value Nothing negative about ASML, I just felt Meta at $600 was a better opportunity than ASML at $1000 I could be wrong and asml performs better going forward but I locked in 42% gains so I'm happy

Independent_Buy5152

Why? It is easier for them to steal TSM’s IP compared to ASML’s. They don’t need to claim Taiwan only for TSM

elias-el

Full ported 30k in GOOG calls in April. Sold 50% after the DOJ ruling, then bought calls for ASML, UNH and space stocks (ASTS, RKLB, LUNR). Made quite a bit of money. Port went to 300k. Sold more GOOG and ASML for regarded critical minerals plays (UUUU primarily), made additional 150k, then lost it all + more. Lost even more when space stocks dumped. But now back to 360k for the year. Happy with it. Rotated into LEAPS for lower-beta stocks...

GelekW

I had a pretty good hit rate with Google, ASML, gold, indexes, POET lately. My brk.b sits doing nothing but makes me feel safer.

SlfImpr

Whoever thinks that AI trade is dead: * In 2024, Google CEO had to apologize for AI mistakes: [https://www.semafor.com/article/02/27/2024/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-calls-ai-tools-responses-completely-unacceptable](https://www.semafor.com/article/02/27/2024/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-calls-ai-tools-responses-completely-unacceptable) * In early 2025, Google stock was heavily beaten down because AI was going to replace search revenue * Look at Google stock now If you think we have reached peak AI in 2025 and there is no more growth left for NVDA, AVGO, AMD, INTC, TSMC, MRVL, ASML, VRT or other semiconductor stocks, you have no idea what is coming in next 2 years!!

Mojo_Amok

Think about sector based ETFs, which can be quite lively from a growth standpoint. Losses from any one company in the fund are generally canibalized by the others, so you'll be moving upwards with the sector even if headline firms take a hit. I'm in tech and am convinced that the picks and shovels plays on the AI boom are no bubble in the long run even if there's some sort of sideways dip. The hyperscalers/trainers are risky investments in a fast moving environment with a lot of the best firms not having made an IPO and the threat of Chinese open source models beating them anyway. Supporting this effort is the semiconductor industry, which has hit an incredible level of sophistication and profitability. IMO, the best way in is with one of the ETFs that track the old PHLX Philadelphia Semiconductor index: SOXX, SOXQ (cheap expense ratio), or SMH. Start researching semiconductor fabrication and things like the 2nm process or ASML products. Then when the market dips, you have faith in the 10 year trajectory of the industry and don't hit the sell button. If the data centers flounder for any reason, the Edge chip market will likely thrive (Apple, Qualcom, ARM, etc.). Otherwise, all those VOO type indexes are great. I've got FIDU in my back pocket as something safe that could overperform too. I like FTEC as an alternative to QQQ for whatever reason.

Adept_Mountain9532

i will buy: GOOGL MSFT ASML MONGO KINETIK

Curious-Intern-5434

Essentially the same I held in the last 9 years: all S&P 500 dividend aristocrats plus a bunch of growth stocks plus some stocks in the tech sector. In total a little over 100 positions. This includes these tech stocks: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, ASML Holdings, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Synopsis, Fortinet, Salesforce, Atlassian, Adobe, Applied Materials, Duolingo, Meta, Service Now, Reddit, Palo Alto Networks. I think it's more about what exposure you want than what exposure I have. Your investment goals are likely to be very different to mine. All the best!

plasticbug

Thinking about ASML and AAPL. Boh have come down some and are in bullish trend, so thinking about selling puts on them.

Old_Sausages_455

I added Celestica (CLS) and ASML for 2026

Stormshot56

ASML is awesome. Alphabet , Amazon , Visa , Uber

tinny66666

They hired an ex-ASML engineer, so I'm not sure that qualifies as espionage (not to say they don't engage in it though).

NotAriGold

Went fro $5K to $48K now. Powered by Google, ASML, AMD and others

apeawake

That’s really great.  I made 15% in my main account which was remarkable because the vol was minimal. Max draw down was 3%. I caught the bottom in Google and made some good trades in Applied TSM and ASML with minimal risk from where I bought in April. I owned a good sized gold position until October.  Made 57% in my Roth taking highest conviction bets (lot of google here, too) Made 7% :/ in my smaller Ira being conservative - names like CNI, Pepsi, Vici

sailortyx56

Kind of insane that China managed to build a complete EUV machine before us. [Link](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/) (assuming the Reuters report is true) We patent out so much of the tech to ASML, yet we don't know how to build out the entire thing here.

Antestor01

Google, Berkshire, ASML, TSMC, Visa, Mastercard, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, S&P, Moodys

FrankDrebinOnReddit

I don't believe Chinese EUV will ever compete with ASML (hence why I said ASML isn't going anywhere), but that China will have EUV technology for domestic semiconductor manufacturing already. Not next year, and probably not the year after, but it's inevitable that it'll happen.

NationalTranslator12

I work at ASML. People that say that China will develop EUV tools and compete with ASML do not understand ASML or EUV for that matter. It is not just EUV. It is the Source (Cymer), the drive laser (Trumpf) the mirrors (Zeiss), the Wafer handler (VDL), R&D partners (IMEC), and many more suppliers. On top of this you need to add all of the qualification steps which ASML does in house and is company secret. So in order to build an EUV machine, you need the complete supply chain plus what ASML does. Even if they succeeded in building an EUV machine, they would need years to learn how to use them, reason why ASML customers are buying High NA before volume production. If you think that this is not a lot already, ASML uses twinscan technology to maximize output and it is the only equipment manufacturer that does this. So if any Chinese EUV machine ever came to market, it would never compete with ASML and just be used domestically because of sanctions. By the time that China could develop the equivalent of an old NXE, ASML will have hyper NA. And ASML profits are not as high as what software companies are making, so the investment does not make economic sense either.

ChemicalPoetRewrite

It is not, the moat is already priced in, and the risks are rising faster than the hype. Expectation saturation: ASML has been known as a monopoly for years. Markets price future surprises, not known facts. Cyclical demand: Semiconductor capex moves in cycles. Foundries paused or delayed orders in 2023–24, which caps near-term growth. Export controls: US-led restrictions on China directly limit ASML’s largest growth market. That’s a structural overhang on revenue. Long revenue lead times: EUV machines take years to build and deliver. Even huge demand doesn’t instantly convert to earnings. Valuation ceiling: ASML already trades at a premium. To rise further, it needs upside beyond “we are essential”, not just confirmation of it. ASML’s importance is undisputed, but markets are weighing geopolitical risk + cyclicality against that importance. It’s not underappreciated, it’s strategically constrained.