ASML

Less_Register4608

ASML will be +8% tomorrow

SupermacsFastFood

The entire continent of the Americas speak European languages, Asian nations have a culture of you don’t speak English they judge very harshly - and Specialty chemicals, Automotive, Precision Engineering and Advance manufacturing (ASML), Commercial Aviation, Advanced Agricultural Machinery etc. etc. all industries Europe does best in the world.

Status-Being-4942

Exactly, a functioning government that is not going to jeopardize the income ASML generates and the spillover effect to all the suppliers in the area.

TernTheNumbers

SAP and ASML are buys.

Disastrous_Ad3779

ASML may be based on the Netherlands but they do all their big contracts in Taiwan hahahaha war cries intensified

moorhound

Since a bunch of you retards forgot we live in a global economy; ASML, the guys that make all the lithography machines, are in the Netherlands Carl Zeiss, the guys that make all the glass/masks needed for etching, are in Germany. Most of the neon comes from Ukraine.

runtimeErr0xr

Block US companies use any chip used with any ASML machine and US companies will do the job against orangeman

awwhorseshit

All they have to do is restrict ASML and its game over.

procgen

ASML licenses their cutting-edge EUV tech from the US Department of Energy, who developed it at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab in California. It's why they are subject to US export controls. *And* they depend on software and components made in the US, including the EUV light source (made by Cymer). ASML has exactly zero leverage here.

Specialist_Guard_902

The thing is ASML has had a hiring freeze and especially now due to uncertain times will not restart hiring. Oh definitely we would be further along, but there will always be a moron who will try to control everything. Let's just hope that the orange swan will not live forever.

istealpixels

That is indeed the question. And that will be heavily influenced by how well different nations will be able to work together. ASML is ofcourse Dutch, but they recruit internationally. The world could be much further along in a lot of areas including tech if we stopped letting a bunch of inflated egos push us in directions that do benefit us.

Specialist_Guard_902

Yes, you are right. I misinterpreted what you have written, I had to read it once more to fully understand what you meant. And ASML is indeed very much ahead, let's see for how long. China might be able to catch up with the already available machines in the next 10-15 years, will ASML be able to make their new machines work by then?

Brokenandburnt

Dude, ASML is the only company on earth that manufacturers the UV lithographs that TSMC uses. They also source specialized components from the EU, Germany for instance has the only fab in the world capable of producing the mirrors that goes into it. If ASML would cut Taiwan and the US off the production stops next time a part breaks down.\ It's not something that can be reproduced quickly either. Just like TSMC's chip fabs, it's not enough to have the technological capacity, it's the trained workforce that is the true bottleneck.

GrandRub

EU could ban ASML related exports

istealpixels

Nothing. That is not what i said, i said it is not making chip machine, China does that. China builds A chip machine. But not anything comparable to what ASML is building. ASML is so much ahead.

jsie-iaiqhsi816278

ASML

VirtualPercentage737

The Neatherland should respond by adding a 3000% tariff on ASML machines. They hold all the cards.

Specialist_Guard_902

What is China building that is years ahead of what ASML is doing now? I doubt they can do that before at least 2040.

Virtual_Secretary_98

Restrict ASML US sales and we'll see if this administration is still playing big boys

illonlyfadeaway

Calls. The EU will chicken out like Taiwan and TSMC. ASML will announce they are investing $500 billion in the US and moving production to Texas.

honey_102b

on the contrary it's the US that has ASML by the balls and has already successfully twisted it at least once already otherwise how do you think a Dutch company would suddenly ban sales to China? because the most important part of the EUV system..the light source is of US origin. not to mention other software, components , and patents developed by the US.

MrDwerg

As someone very familiar with ASML, the supply chain is worldwide. The US is actually a lesser part in it. Still essential, as is every piece of the puzzle. But not the main contributor by far.

Portfoliana

Solid approach - your already doing the right thing with the boring VWRP/pension base. For the 200/month asymetric bucket I’d look at sectors with structural tailwinds that won’t disappear in 5 years: semiconductor infrastructure (ASML, KLAC), energy transition plays with actual earnings (not pure speculation), or quality mid-caps in healthcare/industrials that are flying under the radar. One thing that helps me filter ideas is checking retail sentiment - https://adanos.org/reddit-stock-sentiment tracks what’s getting mentioned across subreddits. Not to follow the crowd, but sometimes usefull to see what’s overhyped vs. overlooked. With your constraints I’d probably stick to 3-5 concentrated positions and just DCA into them monthly rather then chasing new names constantly.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Michael_Bhurewala

lol imagine if EU restricts EU people trading US securities (ie only sell button) and start banning cesspits like X and RDDT as well as services like $VISA, $MA etc also ban ASML from selling advanced EUV machines to US and US affiliated companies. Also, dump dat dere US sovereign debt who said u need nukes? lmao 🍿🍿🍿

noiserr

ASML has been used as a political tool before. It is a European company. They could ban the US and open the latest tech to China.

AnyBug1039

It's true, but we have ARM, ASML. Even working with South Korea directly to fabricate our own ARM chips would be an improvement. Linux is open source and the main OS now for infra. Yes, we're way behind, but we have to start somewhere and try to wrest some control back. I'm not saying it will be easy or quick.

Status-Being-4942

ASML is largely owned by US institutional shareholders, what do you think they can do?

wyckoff_0

I practice Wyckoff principles for my investment decision, I am bullish based on my analysis, if you are interested read below my theory behind my bullish view, **Disclaimer:** If you don't believe in technical analysis ignore it, and you believe it do more research before investment decisions. I am sharing here for only education purpose, I do hold ASML stock. ASML Stock Wyckoff Analysis( Tracking the Smart Money) 1. The 2020-2021 Markup Phase Action: Price skyrocketed from $179 to a peak of $850. Context: This was the initial discovery phase where institutional "Smart Money" realized the scarcity of ASML’s technology during the post-pandemic semiconductor crunch. 2. The 2022-2023 Distribution & Correction Action: After hitting $850, the stock entered a massive correction, bottoming out around $349 in October 2023. WYCKOFF Signal: This wasn't a death spiral; it was a "Spring" or a deep shakeout designed to transfer shares from "weak hands" to institutional "Strong Hands." 3. The 2-Year Reaccumulation Zone (March 2024 – Dec 2025) Range: $630 – $1,180. The Footprint: If you look at the volume profile. Every time ASML dipped below $650, volume surged past 15 million shares. Interpretation: This is high-volume absorption. Institutions weren't just watching; they were building massive positions, creating a "floor" that the market refused to break. 4. The January 2026 Breakout Current Status: As of mid-January 2026, ASML has decisively cleared the $1,100 resistance level with massive relative strength. The "Sign of Strength" (SoS): This isn't a fake-out. The price action over the last three weeks shows a clear shift from a balanced market (sideways) to an imbalanced market (demand exceeding supply). The Goal: Price Targets & Cause/Effect Using Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, the horizontal width of the 2-year reaccumulation zone (the "Cause") allows us to project the potential "Effect" (the price move). Long-Term Target 1: $1,875 Long-Term Target 2: $2,100+ you can find more detailed view here in this video. [https://youtu.be/kQyemWTdZeA](https://youtu.be/kQyemWTdZeA)

asmallstep

 Mostly Defense like: Rheinmetall, Renk, TKMS but also ASML, Siemens Energy 

Neat-Voice2456

U.S. stocks don’t have much of a stability premium over Canada/Europe/Japan. U.S. stocks have a growth and quality premium because of tech dominance. If you look at the high quality tech stocks outside the US, they trade at high valuations too, it’s just that there aren’t many. ASML, Spotify, MercadoLibre, and Shopify come to mind. Very high valuations. The reason Europe trades at 15x earnings is because Europe is dominated by financials, healthcare, etc. Structurally lower growth and margins. China is another thing. The risk of Chinese ADRs going to zero is real. They march into Taiwan, your BABA is gone.

jackdstrom

It's super pricey but ASML might be a play? (If it dips)? Isn't it headquartered in belgium?

espkv

If they really wanted to create tension, they'd close the doors at ASML and just watch the tech-companies get real intrested in a regime change.

Fit-Gear-8769

Other Options 😂😂😂 Try again, or maybe list them. Taiwan doesn’t exist without the US. ASML has no business without Taiwan, Japan and Korea. All of which rely on the US for defense. You think imec will keep ASML in business. 😂😂

gehacktes

Of course there's other options lmao You seem to struggle to understand how Taiwan is completely dependent on the ASML production machines. Cutting of Europe would be suicide. Unless you think they can produce chips with a magic spell. Go figure.

gehacktes

TSMC has nothing to do with this and they wouldn't cut off shit, because they're dependent on ASML without any alternative.

Stunning_Spare

No it won't Taiwan produce most of that with the machine powering AI industry and causing shortage on DRAM and shit, and ASML is getting very handsome part of the pie. such ban will be no benefit to anyone, even more devastating for EU. there're more options and less destructive a lot more beneficial like restrict US internet services.

Appropriate_Mixer

I don’t think you understand the chip market well. The US can make those lower quality chips just like China without ASML just fine. It’s just the high quality 2-3nm chips of NVIDIA and TSM that are used for AI data centers and such that wouldn’t be available.

MyNameIs-Anthony

Hold on to current machines until ASML stops acting stupid.

moorhound

The one magical sentence that the EU has to say: "In response to recent US actions, we will be placing export controls on lithography devices (ASML), glass imaging products (Carl Zeiss), and their derivative products." Tech boys will have 🥭 in the cuck chair my Monday.

moorhound

Question: Where is ASML located

Master-Piccolo-4588

Does DT understand that we have ASML?

Curlymoeonwater

I have subscriptions to the Wall St Journal and Barrons - I sometimes let them lapse so I can pick them up at a good discount around the holidays. I subscribe to Morningstar (it's the most expensive sub I have since I use it as my portfolio tracker); good articles and screeners and I use their individual stock analysis as a major source for interpreting stock valuation. I listen to Barron's Streetwise and Consuela Mack's Wealthtrack podcasts - they both provide fairly conservative commentary and a wide swath of good interviews weekly. I'll occasionally tune into CNBC during the day to see if there's someone interesting on, but try to ignore the hype. Bloomberg tv has alot of good news clips throughout the day and the weekly show Wall Street Week with David Westin is a solid, wide ranging informative show. I rarely jump on anything because of a headline - it's already too late. But I figure that the more I know about anything and everything in the news, the better. I do like to look at stocks that get slammed due to a headline just to see whether it's justified. Example - when news about Deepseek came out last year there was alot of talk about Google being doomed. I didn't jump in, but was buying a few months later after the dust settled and analysis became a bit more sober. I've read about ASML for several years and have missed opportunities but finally held my nose and began buying in October '24 after they said earnings might be flattish in '25; a year of flat earnings is not going to kill a ASML. I've also had dead money in ALB for over 2 years so I'm not claiming to be a genius. And MRNA has been nothing but a loser - thankfully a small position. I love reading and being engaged in my investments and balance my individual stocks with etf's. Doing ok, maybe could be doing better.

atape_1

If the EU actually wants to seriously hurt the US, they can stop exporting ASML machines.

gianfrugo

i think you are right for the wrong reasons. climate change, natural resource depletion aren't real problems for Investments: climate change isn't that big of a dial for companies (it is for animals habitat and poor nations but not for the sep). natural resource depletion will be a problem in another 100 year maybe the elefant in the room is ai. and in particular AGI/ASI. if we (as of humanity) succesfully build an asi the entire economic sistema of the world will see change drastically. ASI is the most important technology that humans can create, more consequential than fire, agricolture, or electricity. a world whit an asi is a world that dosn't need human work, and where incredible new technology is discovered autonomously at speed unimaginable. the right thing to do is simple by ai stock. my opinion of particular stocks: the best: GOOGLE (50% of my portfolio): has modles, tpu, fsd... very good: TSMC, INTELL, ASML good but not perfect: BROADCOM, NVIDIA, AMAZON, MICROSOFT, TESLA, AMD, MU more risky but potentially interesting: RXRX, OKLO, [z.ai](http://z.ai/), mimimax (and probably a lot more) and i hope for openai, antropi, x1 robbotica, figure and unitree IPOs S&P will probably still be decent but a lot of companies will fail. and more importantly work will be a memory of the past so better have a huge portfolio or live in a country that offers UBI.

longGERN

Shoulda bought way more ASML fml

I-vonatinkle

Good news for ASML then?

Ecstatic_Wheelbarrow

Not that rules apply anymore, but you technically can't do that under the WTO without justifications (hostile takeover of land probably isn't one of them). You're likely correct that the US will do it anyways so expect hardware to get even more expensive with new tariffs on ASML. >Trade without discrimination >1. Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally  Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.

Griffeltje

ASML could do the funniest thing here

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

''[source=chatgpt.com](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding?utm_source=chatgpt.com)''

gopoohgo

ASML relies on US patents on EUV lithography, and a US subsidiary, Cymer, for production of their equipment.

BigEdsHairMayo

The Dutch could do something so funny right now... AI bubble would pop immediately if US got cut off from ASML equipment. DO IT!!!!

BigEdsHairMayo

The Netherlands could send our economy back to the stone age if they prevented ASML equipment from being used for US chip production. Weeks of circuit breaker down days at NYSE.

Faktheduck

Maybe the Netherlands should counter with a 100% tariff increase on ASML machines to the US….

ShittyUsernane1222

the more 🥭 shits on Europe, the more likely it is that ASML will sell EUV machines to china in secret backdoor deals implemented via EU and China sanctioned clandestine smuggling operations.

flyingdutchmnn

America the 2nd most hate country on earth after Russia (according to your own junk media, Newsweek). 15% of europeans consider the US an ally 😅. So do tell, who are your allies? Canada maybe?? 😂 https://ecfr.eu/publication/how-trump-is-making-china-great-again-and-what-it-means-for-europe/ >Haha americas not an export country anyway. Is literally what Trump is trying to incentivize and his entire economic policy is built around. All for nothing I guess since you seem to accept its pointless. It's failing pretty miserably. >Please tell me 1 company that can compete with tech and cloud? Without ASML you cant even produce chips. We created the fucking tech industry. What, you don't think we have replaceable email domains? Cloud is easy to replace and that's actively being built, and WILL be replaced. Everything you've said is classic naive brainrot american bubble syndrome. Its why americans get this stereotype, but stereotypes come from something! We need nothing from the US

ClippingTetris

Give yourself an allotment for ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ risk investments. On the ‘Low’, look at indexes like VOO (overall), QQQ (tech) or ITA (military). For medium, speaking purely on tech, ASML, GLW, GOOG, AAPL, etc. On the high, but that into stock you think have the highest potential return. If you wanted to try something higher risk, look at an Options Call on an index fund ETF like $VOO or $SPY that doesn’t expire for 6-12 months.

HVVHdotAGENCY

Insane levels of hopium. The second one of the armada of EUV startups has a scalable MVP, ASML is toast

wright_on_

real ASML heads know about hyper NA EUV lithography

CriticalBlackberry90

ASML, AMAT, KLAC, LRCX are probably going to announce price increases soon and when that happens TSM will pass cost to NVDA who will pass cost to big tech and then they are toast. Spending 50+ billion every single year not sustainable.

Weak-Pomegranate-435

ASML already overvalued

Wnb_Gynocologist69

How about fu*king buy the asset THAT HAS THE STRONG OUTLOOK It's ridiculous looking at the volume of tsmc after their tremendous earnings and guidance beat. If you look at both assets, ASML continously rises and TSMC just goes flat currently. Sure it went up well pre earnings and on the pre teased guidance teaser but seriously... Wtf. If this doesn't pick up momentum next week I will massively downsize my position.

C-Me-Try

Typically things follow the money is the point I’m making. US companies have the money. JP Morgan is the key player for ASML and I’m confident they have a lot of pull in both the US and EU/ Dutch economies

CriticalBlackberry90

So basically they've kept tech index pinned by pumping all the suppliers (MU, SNDK, ASML, AMAT, KLAC, LRCX) and slow selling the others (AAPL, META, MSFT) with some theta (GOOGL, AMZN) and then pumping meme stocks through the roof (nuclear, space, interestingly not quantum this time)

C-Me-Try

ASMLs largest shareholders are US companies. Sure they are headquartered in the Netherlands, but the US investors control the direction. ASML wouldn’t not sell to something else that JP Morgan owns and that has nothing to do with politics

Affectionate-Panic-1

Biggest risk with ASML is China creating a competitor that meets or exceeds it, because they're trying.

nutella_dipped_dick

The EU should stop selling ASML equipment to the US.

Joonypoo

fuck i wanna get in on ASML but im holding too much shit

A55BAG

Hyperscalers are supposed to pay higher utility bills and they are out bidding each other and driving hardware prices ever higher. TSMC, NVIDIA, ASML, Samsung, Micron are all increasing their margins. Betting on Meta, Amazon or Alphabet here is risky imo.

callsonreddit

ASML shares could surge 70% in bull case as Morgan Stanley cites AI chip demand and strong TSMC outlook [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-70-surge-101600878.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-70-surge-101600878.html)

CMDR_Shepard96

0DTE ASML Earnings calls - go big or go poor.

LuckyJamnik

Do you know what a “dip” means? ASML is at ATH atm

GuiltyChampionship30

I suggest you do a bit of reading into the history of ASML and the challenges they faced in creating their machines. The engineers and scientists behind this company are to chip fabrication, what von Braun was to space rockets. It would take decades for another team to catch up with them.

fire_alarmist

ASML is the new netflix, they are going to short squeeze this piece of trash to such extremes its unreal then start the slow sell off back to where it should be(600). Do a stock split at the top so that they dont lose nearly as much on options when it comes down compared to the massive delta options they manipulated on the way up to pay out massively.

elgrandorado

Still kicking myself for selling most of my ASML stake. Great to see it popping like this on the back of TSMC's roaring year.

Fun-Ad-6948

True the ASML supply chain is global but the most important and hard to make parts (like the lenses) aren’t made in the US.

Fun-Ad-6948

Also worse than what you said, the Netherlands and ASML can brick the chip machines remotely.

Appropriate_Mixer

The US would just eventually create their own ASML, solidifying the whole chip supply chain in the US. It would take a few years but they own and can manufacture the tech

GreedyTexas

ASML went crazy.

Forgetwhatitoldyou

I started looking at the various suppliers - AMAT, ASML, KLAC, TOELY, LRCX - and I really don't have the expertise to keep up with their businesses, whereas I understand, at least from an investor POV, TSMC's business and what's driving changes in their earnings and stock.  I think they're also one of the few companies that would drive demand from the suppliers I mentioned, and have significant ability to keep supplier costs in line.  So as much as I'm tempted to spread things out over the various suppliers, I'm probably just going to stick with TSMC itself.  

dvdmovie1

There are parts of tech that that did very well last year then went nuts to start the year. Semicap, anything memory, European stuff (Besi, ASML, etc), Japan semicap names, etc.

Pojihut

AMD and ASML with the standout performance in my porty

Ancient_Sort5820

Putting 30k into ASML when it was like $700 turned out to be one of the best decisions of my life lol

Far-Requirement9180

AMAT, AMD, TSMC, ASML were the play all along

MitchCurry

ASML and IBKR with ATHs.

StonklordBenno

They are pricy, but I wouldn’t say overvalued. It is practically a monopoly that is near impossible to copy. Their MOAT is incredible. I don’t see them losing their position in the coming 5 years for certain, and probably 10 years. ASML’s high NA EUV machines are being sold for ~400mln a pop, and they can’t even satisfy demand and backlog. A great watch to understand their market position is the recent video by Veritasium explaining how insanely complex and hard to copy their machines are.

dol1_

Genuine question: Why is NVDA only up 1,5% this week while Intel is 19%, AMD is 15%, ASML is 14% and so on?

callsonreddit

TSMC earnings target up to $56B in 2026 capex and \~30% revenue growth, boosting the AI outlook. Pre-market: TSM +5%, ASML +7% [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qdksfv/tsmc\_earnings\_target\_up\_to\_56b\_in\_2026\_capex\_and/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qdksfv/tsmc_earnings_target_up_to_56b_in_2026_capex_and/)

Livid_Engineering_30

the company that really matters is ASML

Livid_Engineering_30

you mean ASML

T-Zing

Can't for the life of me understand why ASML is not a trillion dollar company yet

fire_alarmist

Everyone sleeping on ASML puts, China has built one of their machines and the only roadblock to producing more is obtaining some special mirrors that only one Swiss company makes. ASML literally finna go back down to 600 soon.

ProtoBraid

You google guys are sleeping on ASML its up 18% ytd vs 7% google.

ShadowLiberal

It's worse then what you said. A big part of ASML's profits are maintenance contracts that literally all of their customers have, because maintenance on their big and expensive machines is VERY important to keep them running properly, no one tries and does this on their own without ASML's help. So if ASML is suddenly barred from doing said maintenance then all of your existing machines are screwed sooner or later. It's not quite as bad with planes, since you can salvage parts off of other planes to fix them (as Russia has been doing). But it's also a big problem long term as you can only keep up that approach for so long without smuggling in more parts.

RainbowCrown71

ASML relies on US patents. They can’t sell to anyone without Washington’s approval. Novo Nordisk is rapidly falling behind Eli Lilly in U.S. market share in the weight loss space (Mounjaro is best in class). Losing them wouldn’t do much since Eli Lilly would simply assume the Novo factories in NC. Airbus parts is both ways. You can’t make an Airbus without U.S.-produced specialized parts that can’t be easily replicated. So I think your examples are rather weak tbh

Frozen_Shades

Holy Fuck ASML

Doclub29

Never thought I would say this but, ASML is overpriced

Commercial_Seat_3704

ASML CEO does the same shit

MitchCurry

TSM up 5.7% as is ASML on the TSM report.

FarrisAT

1. The contracts are variable with numerous options. The price is very much only set for the up-front paid allocation. New contracts will be massively more pricey. 2. ASML is a monopoly. They can play hardball. Their customers are literally trillion dollar companies (TSMC, Samsung, Micron).

Viktri1

Looking at ASML and TSM, Nvidia should be trading at least 50% higher. How is forward PE so low here.