ASML

ZacTheBlob

Designs won't help much when they don't have the ASML machines to make them or the access to the ecosystem which is literally the whole reason Nvidia is worth what it is.

CMDR_Shepard96

So, I'm down 30% on my MSFT calls. Kinda ready to give up on this turd. Do I switch to ASML?

Over-Stage827

I share daily, data-driven analysis of the U.S. stock market after the market close using a proprietary trading system. Below is one example from recent real results: 🔹 ASML moved from $1,163 to $1,277 in two weeks (≈ +9.8%). I publish these analyses consistently and transparently. 📌 Follow the account here: https://www.tiktok.com/@blackdolphin58

Over-Stage827

I share daily, data-driven analysis of the U.S. stock market after the market close using a proprietary trading system. Below is one example from recent real results: 🔹 ASML moved from $1,163 to $1,277 in two weeks (≈ +9.8%). I publish these analyses consistently and transparently. 📌 Follow the account here: https://www.tiktok.com/@blackdolphin58

TomorrowSavings7579

Yeah, but ASML has one of the biggest moats in the world!  Both great companies!

Ancient_Sort5820

MELI, ASML (highly dependent on US so kinda irrelevant) and RYCEY. They are also 3 of my 4 biggest winners over the past few years

TomorrowSavings7579

Buy $AMD, $GOOGL, or $ASML?!!!

WolfetoneRebel

Both + ASML

Amazing_Bat_1498

They havent though ASML development of EUV litho followed this rough timeline: 1990's - First experiments Early 2000's - Micro-exposure tools late 2000's - ASML's Alpha Demo Tool mid 2010's - First "test" mass production tools Early 2020's - Ready for HVM China is currently on the Micro-exposure tool stage. I am not saying it will take 20 more years as china does have the advantage of copying and relying on ASML data, but still i would not call it promising at this point. We are at least 10 years away from china competing with current low EUV ASML machines and by then i would guess ASML has moved over to hyper NA-EUV machines set to be ready by 2030-2032. Also they have not shown any proof of concept. No one has seen their machine. Everything is hersay from chineese officials at this point. And if we go by what they are telling us, they are still way behind. This is not the type of technology you will be able to copy from simply hiring a couple of former ASML employees. You need the more than 5000 subcontracters and all the other employees at ASML. We are talking about machines weghing 180-200 tones and consisting of more than 100 000 different parts. It took them decades to make cars that are not the laughing stock of the world and still they have not been able to manufacture an airliner that is even close to Boeing or Airbus despite having access to the same subcontractors as Boeing and airbus. In this case they are cut from all the ASML suppliers because of export restrictions and this techonology is way more complex than anything that goes on in any type of airplane.

Amazing_Bat_1498

«Again, everyone thought China/SMIC was 5-10 years behind, but they just released (I think within the last month or two) a EUV prototype with poor yields but solid proof of concept. Pretty sure they hired former ASML engineers and they have been poaching TSMc engineers for a long time.» China is from everything we know about it at this point way more behind than 5-10 years. As matter of fact they have not shown any proof of concept for anyone to see. Everything is hersay at this point. The reports are they have been able to finally develop an EUV lightsource. But there are so many hurdles left at this point that it would not even be worth talking about it if it was not for this being refered to as the chineese manhattan project which they are spending an insane amount of money on. Also they have not been able to produce any yields at all and they hope they can have something that would be able to produce the first chips in 2030. From there, there is a long way ahead to compete with current asml machines that have been optimized for a more than a decade by then since the firs EUV machine in 2018 from real world data. Also different chinese companies have tried to copy DUV machines made by ASML for a decade now and their DUV machines are not even close on yields. This does however seem as a way more coordinated effort. So who knows. At this point i am not worried at all. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/

Bronze_Rager

China just released their EUV prototype with poor yields but proof of a working concept. They hired previous ASML engineers and designers and have made really promising progress.

Amazing_Bat_1498

Yes it is very expensive and obivously no one wants to be enitirely dependent on a monopoly but i would not frame it as them looking to move away from ASML as this would imply they have this as an option they are pursuing which they currently dont. If anyone makes anything that comes even close to ASML i am sure TSMC will be all over it. This goes without saying.

Bronze_Rager

"TSMC dont have any other options besides ASML. They are like 99% dependent on ASML for all the chips they would want to produce and **will produce in the forseeable future** even without any AI." \-We disagree on this point. Again, everyone thought China/SMIC was 5-10 years behind, but they just released a EUV prototype with poor yields but solid proof of concept.

Amazing_Bat_1498

I don’t now about Intel. Considering how much support they are getting from US government from both parties i would not bet against them, though i would not bet on them either. If AI is a bust i think there will be a lot of pain for the entire industry. No company in this industry can justify those valuations without the expectations people have for AI. TSMC dont have any other options besides ASML. They are like 99% dependent on ASML for all the chips they would want to produce and will produce in the forseeable future even without any AI. For full disclosure i am invested in ASML. I think it has a bright future but obvously it has started to get really expensive at this point. Also i agree it is labour intensive. This is not the company you invest in if you want to see 5x or 10x gains in the matter of years. This is the company with an insane moat you invest in, in the off chance AI ends up «taking over the world» like everyone is saying and you want to see some steady gains from it without beeing too exposed if AI suddenly turned out to be a fad like you would with for example NVIDIA or even to some extent TSMC.

Bronze_Rager

And TSMc **is** looking to move away from ASML... They have stated that its pretty expensive. If they can find similar from China, they will most likely head that route.

Amazing_Bat_1498

All those are bear cases yes, my response was to you saying that TSMC are looking to move away from ASML. One way or the other TSMC will need many more machines from ASML for their founderies under construction, if not High NA-EUV certainly low EUV. Also considering the backlog in demand for RAM and Chips these days i think it is safe to assume that demand for new ASML machines also will increase. All this is without taking in to account the surge in demand that is expected during the next years.

Amazing_Bat_1498

If you could provide me a single source where TSMC is considering dropping all ASML machines I will shut up. «They aren't. The whole point of the topic was for a bear case of ASML, which was that the few companies that ASML supplies litho. is considering other options. Which is clear they are as they don't need it to develop previous gen chips...» - I understand what you mean. Companies not getting any utility from high na-euv is obviously a bear case but the way you write can easily be interpreted as TSMC have other alternatives outside of ASML machines, which they dont. «You're a weird one. I have no idea how you jumped to the conclusion that I said that tsmc is considering making litho machines...» - Se original post, if you mean something else ok, but i am not the only one to have interpreteded it that way. «Considering other alternatives outside of using litho. is something that TSMC has said...» -Any source for this? How can they consider something that is science fiction at this point.

elgrandorado

Ten holdings. GOOG, SPGI, HWKN, FICO, NTDOY, ASML, AMZN, CSU, MELI, & MCO

OverheadPress69

That’s so not true. Yes, Google & Apple are performing well. NVIDIA has been kinda flat. Microsoft pulling back. Amazon kinda flat. Meta flat. Tesla is Tesla. The real opportunity in the market is the second-tier, non-MAG7 stocks: Taiwan Semi, ASML, Micron, AMD, Applied Materials, KLA, Lam, Amphenol, RTX, Lockheed, Northrop, Exxon, GEV, etc.

Bronze_Rager

"egardless will push them to buy more low EUV machines from ASML. This may however change for their a10 node that is due in 2029-2030 because at some point High NA-EUV will make sense as the number of extra masking steps will increase for making more dense chips, adding cost and at some point in time the cost of those extra masking steps will offset the cost of buying new High-NA-EUV machines." \-Yes, this is the case, if the entire tech industry is doing well with their AI. Its not guaranteed, although most signs point to AI being successful. There are always people who don't believe that and they have legitimacy in their case. Thats 2030, if all things go smoothly, which again, is in the future. And regardless, so what if TSMc just sustains for a brief period. Intel and samsung are so far behind that it doesn't matter if they focus on economics rather than R&D. I'm a huge Intel bear for full transparency btw, so if you're an intel bull, we're probably going to disagree on the fundamentals.

Bronze_Rager

"What they are saying is that for the time being they dont need High NA-EUV for A14-node and that they can make these nodes with low euv machines from ASML by using extra masking steps," \-Yes... That's a bear case for ASML... Again, if TSMc can develop extra process steps with similar results, that's a bear case for ASML.... How hard is it to understand that? That's literally in the title...

Bronze_Rager

This is high na euv, so they are still going to use ASMLs low euv instead. TSMC is not making its own lithography machine. \-absolutely. Can you provide me any source that TSMC is planning to enter the lithography business? No? I never made that claim and I'm unsure how you got the jump there from what I said at any point at all. ASML spent multiple decades developing EUV machines, and China the worlds second largest economy has thrown everything it has at copying ASML yet they are still far behind but somehow TSMC has figured it out. Again, at no point did I ever say that TSMC was going into the lith business... If you could provide me a single source where TSMC is considering dropping all ASML machines I will shut up. They aren't. The whole point of the topic was for a bear case of ASML, which was that the few companies that ASML supplies litho. is considering other options. Which is clear they are as they don't need it to develop previous gen chips... You're a weird one. I have no idea how you jumped to the conclusion that I said that tsmc is considering making litho machines... Considering other alternatives outside of using litho. is something that TSMC has said...

VonLoewe

I don't think that's really true. Whether the AI bubble pops, smaller and better semiconductors will always be in demand. ASML doesn't depend on high chip demand since their customers are the fabs.

Diddly_eyed_Dipshite

Also been pondering this, Nebius is my largest holding and I feel is well positioned for this, otherwise ASML seems safe, SAP SE of course, and maybe Siemens. As underlying bets though, I've some money on European Energy/Electricity and European banks. I have the STOXX 600 but interested in having a sectoral ETF like ESIN or SXNPEX for more industrials and services but not decided yet

Amazing_Bat_1498

Move to who? You don’t know what you are talking about. It’s either ASML or nothing. They have monopoly in the EUV space and 99,999% market share in DUV machines for anything that requires semi-advanced chips. There is not a single person in TSMC that is saying they are looking to move away from ASML. What they are saying is that for the time being they dont need High NA-EUV for A14-node and that they can make these nodes with low euv machines from ASML by using extra masking steps, which regardless will push them to buy more low EUV machines from ASML. This may however change for their a10 node that is due in 2029-2030 because at some point High NA-EUV will make sense as the number of extra masking steps will increase for making more dense chips, adding cost and at some point in time the cost of those extra masking steps will offset the cost of buying new High-NA-EUV machines. If you can provide me a single source where TSMC says they are looking to move away from ASML I will shut up.

Amazing_Bat_1498

This is high na euv, so they are still going to use ASMLs low euv instead. TSMC is not making its own lithography machine. Can you provide me any source that TSMC is planning to enter the lithography business? ASML spent multiple decades developing EUV machines, and China the worlds second largest economy has thrown everything it has at copying ASML yet they are still far behind but somehow TSMC has figured it out. If you could provide me a single source where TSMC is considering dropping all ASML machines I will shut up.

elgrandorado

He had a streak where every time he would complain, the markets would mostly reverse their daily movement. That bottom call during Mangomania was breathtaking. I should have put everything on my AI related picks (ASML, GOOG) that morning.

Master-Koala5476

What's their talent their portfolios are the same wheres the pedigree in buying up Microsoft, ASML, Nvidia, Tesla etc etc ??? The truly talented are the ones who buy them when they are penny stocks.

gizamo

No you didn't. You are either ignorantly or disingenuously misrepresenting that article. It is clearly a PR statement from TSMC that is directed at ASML to basically say, "your price is too high; bring it down, or we'll delay build out." It's telling that you didn't quote the very next lines from the article: > A key reason for TSMC’s delay in adoption could be the extreme price tag placed on the tools by monopoly supplier ASML Holding NV. The price of the high-NA EUV exposure machine is said to be about US$380 million or more than twice the approximately US$180 million of the previous generation lower-NA EUV machines. > TSMC has apparently calculated that it is more cost-efficient to use multiple patterning using low-NA EUVL and experience slightly longer dwell times in line. In addition, it will benefit from superior well-established yields using the current generation of equipment. Nothing in that entire article says that they are developing any alternatives. Instead, they are claiming that they'll use older, worse, and vastly larger technology while plainly stating that they're only doing that because of ASML pricing—with the obvious implication that if ASML lowers their pricing, TSMC will keep buying.

Bronze_Rager

[https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tsmc-shuns-high-na-euv-lithography/#:\~:text=Foundry%20TSMC%20does%20not%20need,monopoly%20supplier%20ASML%20Holding%20NV](https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tsmc-shuns-high-na-euv-lithography/#:~:text=Foundry%20TSMC%20does%20not%20need,monopoly%20supplier%20ASML%20Holding%20NV). Already did many times...

Bronze_Rager

[https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tsmc-shuns-high-na-euv-lithography/#:\~:text=Foundry%20TSMC%20does%20not%20need,monopoly%20supplier%20ASML%20Holding%20NV](https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tsmc-shuns-high-na-euv-lithography/#:~:text=Foundry%20TSMC%20does%20not%20need,monopoly%20supplier%20ASML%20Holding%20NV).

gizamo

China is still trying to knock off a decent DUV. That said, DUV is half of ASML's revenue. Eventually, China will require all Chinese semis companies to use their own DUV knock off companies.

dansdansy

Yes, they have been steadily making progress. To catch up it'll take them continued effort as well as ASML fumbling the bag. Think Intel and AMD the past 20 years.

dansdansy

Bear case- ASML's tech progress doesn't keep making exponential improvements and they plateau, while China gets an EUV machine up that is scalable and close to par on precision. That machine undercuts ASML prices and is given preference in mainland china. Taiwan fabs and ASML steadily lose china demand. That and the development of completely new ways to do computing that don't require uber precise lithography, which seems like an unlikely tail risk.

CMDR_Shepard96

I bought an Feb expiry ASML 1300C on Friday just after open and thought I was the smartest trader ever by close Looks like most of those gains are gone 😆 My MSFT and SPY calls are headed toward worthlessness

Mlenais

MU, ASML, Amazon, Google.

Primary_Job_751

The government can’t help TSMC succeed anymore in the real problem. We can’t protect their supply chain. And it’s a massive globe spanning network that includes the 6000 companies ASML owns that make up their business, the government will just let TSMC fail and Intel is the only foundry game left. Nvidia and Apple has like choice left but ask Intel to make their products and you better hope or the whole market is screwed beyond screwed. 

Primary_Job_751

It’s been relatively stable around 40$ a share a while now up almost 100% for the year I bought in at 20$ and yes trumo tweets and drives up the price 10%. But every win I’ve ever made in the stock markets analysts crap on it until it turns around and the herd stil buying more Nvidia eventually catch on and the early investors win the most. AI is the nations security issue our time it’s the atom bomb and Chinese are the soviets.  The US can’t rely on any non domestic companies for military supply chains and Taiwan won’t be a great place to get chips for missiles and satellites when there’s war with China. The US has purchased a stake in Intel, it forced nvidia to do so as well, then you see TSMC suing Intel for hiring their former execs and stealing trade secrets and sends the price up.  Look I see the problems but the newest chips after EUV will be high-NA EUV and you know who the only company on earth is with the newest high NA chip fabs in their foundry? Intel. By 2030 the US will force TSMC into submission and purely for selfish political reasons ASML will go along with it as well. There is not much anyone can do if the us exerts maximum economic pressure when it views something as critical to national security. Then there’s the silicon used for these wafers that comes from one mine on earth, in north Carolina and TSMC won’t be getting a supply once China tries taking Taiwan,  it’s self destructive.  Intel will become a leader not even because it will have the best tech but because the global supply chain needs to make the most advanced chips is closing off parts of the world and countries are becoming selfish with their resources. No one country can make chips except for possibly the US.  ASML is global conglomerate that has like 5-60000 companies mostly only making one thing for one customer, ASML. Many of these companies will not be able to keep supplying ASML reliably because they either rely on dictators in the east for materials or are located there altogether. Globalism where you can cheaply ship items the world over is, well over. At least China and Russian are grabbing up their little spheres of influence to try to control and suddenly TSMC and ASML start having continuous covid like supply chain disruptions and we already know the response will be a heavy handed sanctioning of China with counter sanctions and China crumbles because it’s an export country that needs western markets to dump products and suddenly the whole system stops working. And this is what trumps return to the Monroe doctrine and Biden’s chips act was about we know this is coming. Michael Burry said the same thing, the worst we will see is losing a few years of chip advances that will catch back up with time and go back to the 2021 iPhone level at first. That’s what Intel is making the M1 chips. Now who does nvidia turn to? TSMC won’t be functional at least not for 5 years but Intel will.  These aren’t predictions as much as this is the western worlds plan globalization is over as China is running out of people and western countries lose consumers and Asian companies especially in Taiwan and China become impossible to access so you now see South Korea sucking up to China now announcing al kinds of partnerships, Japan is with the US. And Intel will be the only game in town because the US will not be helping anyone else make chips to destroy us with. I get what you think are intels problems but the global landscape is closing half the world to us. The west and the east will not be partners. The US won’t even need oil from the Middle East if we stop exporting the light sweet crude and refine it here. And we may have Venezuelan oil reserves in our hands soon too. Cuba is being beaten into submission without electricity provided by Venezuela oil that’s not available now. Hard to run a country in the dark, literally. These things the government are doing were planned for decades ago we knew the population collapses were coming. Without consumers in Europe we’re not interested in fighting their wars either. TSMC is so dependent on the us to protect their supply chain and we’re not just not able to anymore. Apple announcing they won’t be making new phones every year anymore, coincidence? Not really. New chips will take quite a while. If I’m wrong it wouldn’t even matter the political landscape is changing globally too. There is just no way foreign companies can be or will be trusted with the bleeding edge computing tech on a scale like TSMC that close to our greatest enemy anymore. It’s over. 

Highborn_Hellest

To dethrone ASML you'd need 10s if not 100s of Billions of dollars of research + likely goverment backing. Alternatively a total paradign shift. This, also assumes, that ASML, doesn't invest. The reason ASML has a monopoly, isn't that they're anti-competetive. It's because they won the decades long EUV race, and when they cracked the non-trivial issue of shooting few molecule big tin droplets with lasers in a vaccuume, everybody else capitulated.

disaster_story_69

ASML was on my christmas list, as was PNG.V

12destroyer21

Aren’t F-35’s serially produced? Based purely on R&D cost, those are a lot more complex than ASML’s machines

ShittyUsernane1222

can TSMC and ASML pls merge and vertically integrate / buy up NVDA, Intel, AMD? middleman premiums are ridiculous rn.

slamajamabro

Tbh depending on the quantum of your portfolio, his picks are rather decent. Of course always exercise your own judgement. When it comes to NFLX GOOG and ASML, I tend to agree with his thesis so I have those 3 in my portfolio.

Ok_Buddyyy

So should SAP, Nestle, and ASML 🤓

CrabKates

In all in on ASML

Amazing_Bat_1498

I agree on this post. If anyone is to dethrone ASML it would be some sort of state funded technology from a superpower like China or the US and even if that would be the case it would be from some sort of new techonlogy beyond anything related to EUV as i highly doubet anyone will be able to beat ASML at their own game by now, considering their head start.

Amazing_Bat_1498

Shot term based on expected growth over the next couple of years definitely. Long term i think ASML is better. ASML is not dependent on TSMC, but TSMC is dependent on ASML. TSMC got to where they are today by being the first ones to gamble on EUV machines. Their field of expertise is being the best at extracting everything from EUV machines, sure i know there are other processes, but still lithography is the most important one by far. So if ASML cant keep theiir technological lead, most probably another company would take TSMCs place that are better at using that specific techonology for making chips. In the other hand if Taiwan was suddenly about to be invaded by China, sure ASML would be hit hard short term as well, but imaging the surge in demand in the medium to long term considering most EUV capacity would have been wiped by this time.

Amazing_Bat_1498

Nanoimprint has been worked on for many decades by now without any significant breakthrough. Most people in the field dont believe that nanoimprint will ever work and is today considered more of a gimmick than in theory makes senst but in practice probably will never work. But i agree, i dont think anyone will beat ASML at their own game the biggest danger to ASML would be some sort of new technology, but even then it would take decades for this new technology to replace ASML as most founderies and processes to chip making today rely on some sort of light source. Replacing or rebuliding those factories to transition them to new techonlogy would cost an insane amount of money and take many years, potentially decades.

No-Understanding9064

my point is TSM is a better business, really one of the best businesses. ASML is fine, but not worth the current price

Bronze_Rager

https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tsmc-shuns-high-na-euv-lithography/#:\~:text=Foundry%20TSMC%20does%20not%20need,monopoly%20supplier%20ASML%20Holding%20NV.

Bronze_Rager

Lol I know this. Again, I do not know the hidden R&D TSMc has. All I know is several people at TSMc have said that they are looking to move away from ASML due to their products being pretty expensive. Either way, that's still a bear case for ASML that the major chip fabs are using their old machines longer and looking for other sources. ASML doesn't have that many companies that can afford their prices. Even a couple of major players using their older machines for longer has negative consequences for ASML

Amazing_Bat_1498

Would agree if it weren't for the impending chinese invasion. Sure short term it would be devasting for ASML aswell, but medium to long term it would be a gold mine as most EUV capacity would be wiped out, which would result in a crazy demand for those machines. If i knew Taiwan would be safe i would invest in TSMC in a heartbeat.

Amazing_Bat_1498

By which point they would still rely on ASML DUV machines considering that ASML has a 100% penetration there as well. Also if anything, EUV is proving to be even more important for ram than previously assumed. If you have followed the stock for the last couple of weeks its growth has been linked to RAM-companies turning to EUV machines even though most analysts thought EUV wouldn't be a able to penetrate in to the RAM-market anytime soon.

Amazing_Bat_1498

This is pure nonsense . Of course they are exploring different options, that is a given, but i would be really interested in any source that points them to developing own lithougraphy machines when the foundries they currenty are spending many billions of dollars building are custom tailored to ASML machines.

Amazing_Bat_1498

Come on now this is absolute bullshit news curently. They have tried to copy DUV for decades and it is first now they are starting to get somwhere, even though their best DUV-machine are still miles of ASML best DUV machine. EUV is even more complicated. There is no way they wil have that prototype up and running before 2030-2035 which almost certainly will end up being worse than current low NA EUV machine by ASML as ASML has optimized their machines since 2018 in tight cooperation with their cutomers.. In addtion to this ASML will most likely have moved to hyper NA-EUV by that point. Also even if they were to develop machines able to compete with ASML there is no way in hell western hemisphere ig going to accept being dependent on China for such critical tech.

Disastrous_Ad3779

ASML

Forgetwhatitoldyou

I'd been looking at AMAT, ASML, MU, Tokyo Electron, and KLA on Thursday.  I didn't pull the trigger.  I wanted to cry on Friday... 

xbinary

Agreed, A large costs overhead US FABs have are due to R&M. Second source parts and competition will increase the market while also reducing the current costs from ASML.

Academic_Librarian75

Temu version of ASML.

Uncategorizedl

I'm not?... I have only invested in stocks like Amazon, Google, ASML, Visa and some swedish stocks, with a near majority of my portfolio being in index-funds. I guess I've just bought and sold at good moments, but I don't get why you assume options trading

kigglepig

Nearly all my gains were from holding WSB classics ASTS BTC ASML and swing trading 3mo calls on them

autopilot6236

Yeah ASML will sell anyone the full machine. But it so robust and technologically difficult to operate that it’s doesn’t really matter. That’s my understanding at least.

PracticeOwn2339

ASML sounds like sound language. I'm in.

Spl00ky

It could be argued that even the bear case where China develops their own EUV might not even really be a bear case. ASML make about 26% of their revenue just from servicing machines. It's possible that ASML could concede that China has made their own EUV machines with mostly ASML parts, so ASML could offer to service those machines.

Spacekip

That's not really true. Tmsc makes such an insane amount of profit, ASML could charge double of what they currently do, and tsmc would still buy them.

Natural_Level_7593

China has hired away a lot of the engineers and leads from ASML with the aim of building their own. They just tested a prototype EUV last month. The yield is nowhere close, but it worked as a proof of concept. China isn't nearly as far behind as we thought even 6 months ago, and they are making massive investments to close the lead.

cogit2

1. China is reverse-engineering ASML machines right now, so future competition likely 2. If China attacks Taiwan, the fiscal damage to TSMC includes a scenario where ASML loses one of its biggest customers 3. In spite of having a monopoly on DUV / EUV lithography, AMSL's stock price hasn't done much. Only up 150% in the past 5 years? I've been watching ASML for years as well but I never bought its stock performance is abysmal for a company with an alleged monopoly.

InteractionHorror407

Top signal is in - jokes aside, while the bear case as others pointed out is either new architectures, materials or China cracking the EUV technology, ASML growth is physically capped by their production capacity and almost entirely dependent on 1 customer (tsmc), this makes the current valuation based on earnings and revenue growth a little stretched (zoom out it’s a cyclical). It’s a compounder not a growth stock. I love asml and have invested in them in the past

Citizen_of_Danksburg

What? How? And ASML is one of the most solid, legitimate, and fucking awesome companies on this earth. They do actual science-fiction shit basically. Their chip fabrication machines are so fucking cool.

acies-

Yields are going to be much lower and partnership benefits lower on the tech advancement side, but Nvidia can exist without TSMC. They're not the only foundry. Without ASML they're fucked though.

zordonbyrd

I bought a bunch on ASML it July (hallelujah!) and while I plan to hold for some time, I think there's a bear case - this company isn't as scalable as, say, Nvidia and there's generally good forecasts about its business so not much surprise - that being said, it's never priced in, or I should say good news isn't priced in for long. There will be long periods of consolidation but that trajectory has only been up

pogosticx

Sorry, I don't agree. ASML and TSMC they both need each other. And NVDIA is worthless without them both.

Timmeh_Taco

Yep, GCA was dominant in the 80s and basically invented modern optical lithography but then Nikon and Canon overtook it. ASML seems untouchable today but lithography doninance has flipped before when industry won by pushing lithography itself

Historical_Air_8997

TSM slowed their manufacturing expansion I think in 2024, but the orders for these machines are often made many years in advance. I read TSM had one of asmls most advanced machines delivered at the end of 2024, but they placed the order in 2018. Anyway, they *can* afford more machines but expressed concerns awhile ago about future demand for high end chips. They don’t publicly announce orders, but after 2025s performance and continued AI investments globally I think they may be more motivated to purchase machines. TSM profits like $65B a year, an ASML euv machine is less than $400m and generally are in use for 10 years. So affordability isn’t a concern, demand is. Over the long term though chip demand isn’t going to decrease.

BuilderRemarkable242

We'll see. As far as I'm aware, even TSMC can't even afford their ASML's current model -- its a huge bet, even for China -- if they can't produce state of the art chips with that knowledge, its gonna hurt their wallets real bad

TheEniGmA1987

If you really believe ASML has no competition then you aren't paying attention to the space. NIL is getting better and better lately, making features just a generation behind the top nodes currently. NIL is FAR cheaper as well, and easier to get set up without having to wait for your machine order to be completed by ASML. Asml will be top dog for 2-3 more years for sure, unless some radical breakthrough happens. However, they were a nobody 10 years ago and have strong potential to be a nobody in 10 more years from now as well. ASML has better be using their money wisely while they have a monopoly on tooling, and push the R&D hard on what's next. 

Reasonable-Load3326

As I said, I love ASML. I just think TSMC stock is currently the better value to buy right now 09-01-26.

Chagrinnish

But I also think China is seeing their dependence on ASML as a national security risk given all of the recent embargoes. They have very good reason to make the effort.

Historical_Air_8997

Well you gotta start somewhere, a country should be thinking decades ahead and it isn’t impossible to eventually close the gap or even make a new industry changing discovery. But as an investor I don’t need to care if China will catch up in 10-20 years, there will be plenty of warning as they get closer. Also asmls new machines can do “2nm” (really layered 8nm) but still a huge range between “5nm” and “2nm”. The layering at the precision ASML has is the really difficult thing to get to. So China has the benefit of riding asmls coattails and copying (stealing, borrowing?) their tech, but ASML isn’t standing still and already working on the next “1nm” machine. ASML has the bent of already knowing how their machines work so it’s just improving that. As a side note: my closest friend is an RF scientist/engineer at one of the most prestigious institutions researching new ways to improve chips. He has some publications for his masters and is currently working on his phd in the field. I’m just a dropout so my understanding of his work is VERY limited, but from what I’m hearing/seeing is that there’s some real potential for the future. His focus is from a research standpoint (nonprofit type), so the things he’s creating isn’t necessarily cost effective and/or mass producible (yet). But the fact there are potential efficiencies chips can get without just being small is super bullish for me. Since the work I know of is published I’ll butcher it and say some of it researched a way SAW devices can combine piezoelectric and superconducting materials to semiconductors. The main thing he found is potential to alleviate the diffraction losses associated with SAW, a potential alternative to photonic Chrystal’s used in SAW, annnd there’s more that I am unable to translate into laymen terms as o barely understand it in the big big words. Point is there that the industry can continue to advance and ASML is in place to put this research to use.

Frankopotomous

ASML vibes

ChainOfThot

ASML?

ChainOfThot

Whoa I didn't even realize that Tesla is building its own fab, Tera Fab, this year. They are targeting production of their own wafers by 2028. **2026 (The Construction Year):** This is the year Tesla is expected to break ground or begin heavy equipment installation for its own fab, likely near **Giga Texas** (where preparatory land work was spotted in early January 2026). **2027 (The Tooling Year):** Tesla will likely spend most of 2027 installing ASML lithography machines and calibrating their "dirty fab" isolation systems. **2028 (The First Wafers):** Industry experts believe the earliest Tesla could produce a functional, in-house silicon wafer is **late 2028**. So now Tesla is a fab play as well.

dami_starfruit

China is playing catch up behind ASML and is not a meaningful competitor at this time. What would kill ASML’s business is innovation from another company that renders the DUV/EUV devices obsolete. Japan is working on Nanoimprint Lithography (NIL) and China is working on Photonic chip tech & Thin-Film Lithium Niobate (TFLN) material. Both are promising but not liked to dislodge ASML soon.

Historical_Air_8997

To add to the other guys comment and yours: it took china years (maybe decades) to come up with this prototype, and that’s with ex-ASML engineers reverse engineering an actual ASML machine. That took YEARS to back engineer an actual machine using engineers that built it in the first place. Anyway that should still put them on a faster track than AsML had. China is estimating this prototype to produce its first working chip in 2028 (experts are suggesting 2030 at the earliest). So “working prototype” but still needs 2 years to make a working product. Then they’ll have to begin scaling and tuning. I haven’t seen any solid sources on Chinas EUV machine prototype’s like quality. Is it going to match ASMLs next “hyper NA” model? Is it even going to match asmls current model or is it an older one? It seems to me that at BEST China is still 12 years behind ASML maybe more if their prototype is like one of asml’s first models

african_cheetah

ASML in Netherlands also has geographic security. TSMC has the China threat but ASML major threat is themselves. They make machines at the limit of physics. Only bear case is China cracking EUV and making chips competitive with best US semi conductor companies.

michal939

To be fair it 13 years between first ASML prototype to first commercial product with EUV chips. The Chinese will have it easier for them as they don't have to reinvent everything but still, there is a long way from prototype to actual chips (source: [https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-lab-to-fab](https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/making-euv-lab-to-fab) )

DistributionBroad173

Not an expert on how Europeans invest in America. Or the taxes on Europeans for investing in America. If Mom is scared, do not throw her into the sharks right off the bat. Go with the S&P 500 ETF from Vanguard or Fidelity. The S&P 500 Indexes will pay her a small dividend on top of the growth. If in Europe, right now the European markets are crushing my yank holdings. My small international mutual fund was up 30% last year. Since you are European, and you love chip stocks, why not ASML? A virtual monopoly.

r2k-in-the-vortex

Yes, obviously, a big one too. Their revenue and earnings have gone up significantly in past years due to increased investment in semiconductor manufacturing. If AI bubble goes pop, then that investment is going to drastically reduce for a while. And ASML current PE is already 45. So obviously it can lose a lot of value if it's earnings fail to grow and meet expectations or even worse, if they drop due to halted investments. It doesn't matter that ASML is clearly going to stay around for quite some time, the question is if the valuation can drop, and the answer is absolutely yes.

geneticdeadender

Technology stocks will crash.  It will violate NATO alliance and Netherlands will halt all sales of ASML lithography equipment. It will tank the chip industry and AI stocks will crash the market. We'll be looking at the next Great Depression.  Defense stocks will also crash. Europe has been rearming and there are 100s of billions in orders that will be forever canceled. US bases will be seized and troops imprisoned. If they decide to fight it will be WWIII.  If Trump starts a war he will soon be fighting one at home. I can't think of a more brain dead move, but at this point I am starting to think he is capable of it. Denmark already let's us do what we want there. They have never denied us anything. It is asinine to want to buy what we are already getting for free and to also incur all the costs of maintaining a far off territory.

Spacekip

ASML doesnt (isn't allowed to) sell any EUV to China though

BlueComet210

85% of ASML's revenue is from Asia. The US does not buy EUV machines that much.

SuperRedHulk1

They wouldn’t, and they wouldn’t want to if they could. ASML makes the best but China doesn’t need the best, they just need something. The main thing is that it would cut ASML off of 20% of their revenue

Independent-Watch-41

High valuation and declining growth 6 months ago ASML was -42% from ATH because sales were slowing down 2 years ago most semi equipment producers(i am including also memory/analog) were having either negative growth or low single digit growth, those stocks are now +100-300% Isn't like 6 months ago ASML was more/less important, so you can have a valuation-led bear market Also, the current semiconductor cycle is powered by the hyperscalers capex, the real question here is if they will keep this level of spending, even a smal decline in the capex will put serious presure on all semiconductors industry, including ASML

No-Understanding9064

I agree, ASML is on the wrong side of the pipeline to really exploit the boom. With intel and Samsung's future in fab being less certain that is pressure on asml while TSM has the keys to the kingdom. With no challenge to their fab dominace they can control the pace of nodes and milk older machines longer

bulldogsm

ASML essentially makes 1 thing and sells to single digit number of real customers on a years ahead of time cycle although not strictly true it is practically true thus no biz buzz, no earning surprise, no viral increase in customers or market they make a critical expensive state of the art thing with no current peer competition but everyone who wants one has one or is in line already and thats pretty much the whole story

Bekabam

OP, I don't think the majority of people even understand the difference between ASML and a end chip producer. The real competitor is a fundamentally new design. You're talking about tens of billions and decades of physics research and experimentation. It would have to be a cohort of countries and private companies (much like the current EUV development). Easy buzzword would be "China". I don't see anyone close to dethroning ASML, but I don't read research papers all day to see who's working on the next big theoretical breakthrough 

IDreamtIwokeUp

China. They are investing big time into 2nm/3nm EUV lithography. The government is subsidizing this big time...they're even calling it the "Mount Everest Project". SMIC and Huawei should be selling 3nm chips by 2026-2027, and we could see 2nm chips from SMEE in 2028-2030. For this reason, I have zero interest in investing in ASML.

Bronze_Rager

TSMc is exploring and developing outside of ASML products

Bekabam

TSMC doesn't manufacture their own lithography machines. They buy them from [drumroll] ASML

MrOaiki

China figuring out how to make their own EUV machine Other company figuring out a different more effective way to make chips, ASML’s tech becomes obsolete War or accident wipes our years of work in ASML