ASML

No_Current3675

fuk it bruh might pick up more ASML on open. Still on discount.

Icy_Pay7280

Here's the thing, when China comes out with a fully functional EUV machine in 5 years the media will say, oh EUV is already known technology, the west did all the hard work to pave the path and the parts and principles of how they work were all publically available knowledge (which is true). Then people who just watched a few veritasium videos and think they understand the semiconductor industry will realize it's overblown how difficult EUV is to achieve once the supply chains and institutional knowledge is built up. What China has proved with this domestic DUV mass production (if the news is actually real, still a chance it's fake news btw), is they have matured a domestic supply chain and strong institutions with a vast talent pipeline. No one who seriously works in the industry thinks china can't achieve EUV given the pressure put on them, that's why I'm not touching ASML stock with a 10 foot pole.

coolkavo

Yes. Overreaction indeed. People and institutions can’t get it out of their head that DUV does not equal to EUV. Social media makes it out that China is leapfrogging ASML…

No_Current3675

KLAC ASML LRCX amazing values

IBUYVOTES

Tomorrow? Going bargain hunting in semiconductors. There is value there if you look for it. AVGO is hanging out at 23x NTM, NVDA is 19x, ASML is \~28x, TSM is \~17x. Very attractive entry for some very strong moats.

CUbuffGuy

Lots of tech names in the portfolio getting hammered. AMAT, ASML, SOXX is a big holding. Then there were some high beta names I sold earlier the month but still took a hit on, APLD, RCAT, OUST to name a few

i_am_not_your_puppet

thesis Hyperscalers every hyperscaler in their earnings reports say they are capacity constrained GOOGLE, MSFT, we will see for AMZN in a few days Anthropic Anthropic is begging META for compute to rent, has already signed deal for capex capacity with SPCX OpenAi Codex subs went up to 10 million (3x what they were just a few months ago). They are allegedly training larger modles. Larger models need more capex and memory to support. SpaceX ngmi META probably ngmi and end up a cloud company China China is bulding out it's own capacity, it's chips are years behind, its wannabe ASML is estimated to be 5 years behind; and Moonshot, etc are buying all of their own production. They aren't producing excess supply. Remember K3 kimi ? it lasted about two days and had to stop signing up clients because of capacity constraints. China is far behind it's capex buiild and looking to catch up. by 2030 there is a chance that we will be seeing up to a trillion spend on capex per year none of the TSMC, ASML, Sk Hynix, Meta, MSFT, earnings reported changed any of this. A stock price dropping literally does not change any of the above. My thesis holds strong. This is why I'm bullish on MU.

BurnBabyBurrrn

Chinese companies aren't new to the game man, it's just now people are hearing about them. Their memory sucks for the price it sells at. Their ASML killer is nothing but a PR stunt (see Deepseek replacing NVDA months ago). China aint shxt you're just gullible. It's just Market manipulators taking shares from retail.

ihopethisworksfornow

Gonna just give this the ol’ repost in light of the past hour or so of news Predictions: 1.) Quarter point raise at the next meeting. 2.) Mango talks shit about Warsh before September is over. 3.) Iran war continues indefinitely. 4.) Tech earnings disappoint 5.) Steady bear market through the middle of next year 6.) Lame duck congress after mid-terms (technically good for the markets?) 7.) Huge disruption to tech from China. ASML loses 50% value. U.S. frontier labs start to fall behind open source Chinese models 8.) Aliens obliterate the city of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. They leave with no explanation. 9.) China doesn’t invade Taiwan but institutes a blockade of their ports for “National Security”. China cites U.S. blockades of Iran and Cuba as similar actions. Calls US a hypocrite. Tensions rise. 10.) Elon Musk fatally overdoses on Ketamine at a child’s birthday party. 11.) U.S. personal debt reaches crisis levels and cascading defaults wreck the economy. 12.) Complete economic collapse 13.) People get really into Hackey Sack for a summer, once again. 14.) Widow’s Bay Season 2 will be good but won’t be quite as well received as the first season 15.) Mitch McConnell does not die 16.) Microsoft prints eventually

ihopethisworksfornow

Predictions: 1.) Quarter point raise at the next meeting. 2.) Mango talks shit about Warsh before September is over. 3.) Iran war continues indefinitely. 4.) Tech earnings disappoint 5.) Steady bear market through the middle of next year 6.) Lame duck congress after mid-terms (technically good for the markets?) 7.) Huge disruption to tech from China. ASML loses 50% value. U.S. frontier labs start to fall behind open source Chinese models 8.) Aliens obliterate the city of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. They leave with no explanation. 9.) China doesn’t invade Taiwan but institutes a blockade of their ports for “National Security”. China cites U.S. blockades of Iran and Cuba as similar actions. Calls US a hypocrite. Tensions rise. 10.) Elon Musk fatally overdoses on Ketamine at a child’s birthday party. 11.) U.S. personal debt reaches crisis levels and cascading defaults wreck the economy. 12.) Complete economic collapse 13.) People get really into Hackey Sack for a summer, once again. 14.) Widow’s Bay Season 2 will be good but won’t be quite as well received as the first season 15.) Mitch McConnell does *not* die 16.) Microsoft prints eventually

Icy-Regular-4557

“One company supplied” CXMT challenges that case. Only racists and rubes don’t think they’ll eventually catch up with ASML.  “their inventory purchased”  For planned data centers that might not get built. Half of all data center projects in 2025 got cancelled. Why is that? So what happens to all this inventory?  “companies are committing” Yeah Alphabet looks especially stupid after announcing that, getting dumped on, and then next week seeing the AI trade start to unravel. We’ll see if Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon follow like lemmings or which one of them decides to run for the door first. If they all keep committing capex, even that isn’t a guarantee the economy stays hospitable to those efforts. Now imagine all the hyperscalers *in this environment* truly continue capex. They do so using liquidity, which is not and never has been unlimited (though often in history there arises the notion it is, and that’s the moment before the market corrects them). Liquidity is already being pressured by much bigger world forces— the sovereigns, the world’s countries. Oil blockade? Liquidity crunch. Japan Yen Carry unwind? Liquidity crunch. KOSPI crash? Liquidity crunch. This edges towards a scarier phrase, a credit crunch. Creditors hunt after debtors (Peters) because everybody needs to pay their own Paul.  So you may assume that the hyperscalers will make a choice like that, to jump in at a time like this, push all their cash that way. Maybe they can prop things up for a few days, or maybe even a few weeks. But don’t think that they’re the world’s big powers and can hold up the world themselves. Demand will crash, because finance will crash. Because overproduction is an inherent tendency of this economy, especially by monopolies (each crash mentioned in my previous comment featured monopolies and overproduction…and dumbasses talking about how “everything is fine, this time is different.”)

_Sunshine_17

I don’t see any logic behind this. I see Wall Street finance gurus talking on TV mumbo jumbo about AI but being unable to tell the difference between a CPU and a GPU. The technological innovations that led to the AI revolution are immensely complicated. For example it took ASML 20 years of hardcore quantum physics research to be able to manipulate matter at an the scale of a few atoms and produce the EUV lithography. China is not going to replace that in a few months. In the long run I believe it’s all going to be about how effectively these companies are going to integrate AI into their workflow. A professional illustrator needs vectors to work with and the future would possibly be a copilot analogue for dealing with these vectors. I myself work in scientific HPC and AI has changed the landscape in my field a lot.

Anonymous_Lurker_1

Profit taking, the war, concerns over "AI bubbles".... also, China have now announced their version of ASML's DUV machines. However, these DUV machines are not little bits of kit. They're the size of a bus. China are planning on building 5. Next year they're building 20... ASML build 130. These arent production line machines, theyre ultra precise, expertly built. This has happened before when Huawei announced their new chips within their smartphones. Initial panic lasted 2 months. Once earnings were revealed and it came out that 50%> of the chips were binned, the market recovered. Im anticipating a santa-rally.

No_Current3675

Picked up some ASML at 1540. May put in another order for 1500.

Main_Ad3943

Using TWS, can't see them on any platform though. Not sure if it's because I just enabled permissions for them or what. I can see SSF's for ASML though so, not sure. If you can see them maybe I just need to wait

CUbuffGuy

The more notable thing is that they are a post-fab provider. Which means they basically sell things for fabs already made at the non-cutting edge level (old stuff). They only work with the bigger chips. This is big because the biggest fear right now is China making their own shitty chips, which slashes the demand for 12+nm chips. It effects places like klac and gfs the most because they don’t have any other revenue lines for the newer chips China can’t make. The fact it’s popping means the riskiest and most direct threat vector is seeing green, which bodes very well for more specialized vendors like AMAT, ASML, etc, who actually make the newer chips too.

Icy_Pay7280

YOU have no idea what you're talking about. They absolutely manufacture most of the parts domestically, no other country is close to being able to do this, not even ASML itself, DUV is a miracle in of itself, the hardest part of EUV is literally the light source and precision mirrors, both of which China could crack in the next few years, everything else is quite trivial to overcome, it's not like the technology and methodology is unknown, EUV is not something miraculously more difficult than DUV.

reality_hijacker

It's not about beating ASML, it's about being able to domestically produce without reliance on ASML.

Late-Photograph-1954

You exiting ASML, Korean DRAM, Chinese AI?

Jerikolol

is it too soon for ASML? they had 20% of their revenue from china selling well their cheaper DUV. Idk if the markets priced losing that out already/analyst downgrades. Like in 2-3 years, for sure, ASML wont be doing 20% in china anymore, not with new competition

A55BAG

Decent entry for European semi tools ASML, ASM, BESI, AIXA is being offered

notintelligentidiot

Why do you goofy goobers talk so confidently about things you obviously know little about? China does not build DUV machines “entirely on their own”, quick research shows they rely on specialized subcomponents precision motion controls, and high-grade materials imported from mostly from Japan… which are kind of, you know, critical when producing chips, especially the precision motion control part. DUV, while a cool technology, is vastly less marvelous an engineering feat than EUV lithography is and the science a lot less complicated (in relative terms, of course). ASML sold its first DUV machine 1998 with far less sophisticated technology than what China is working with today. Its DUV machines also still lag behind in scale and performance. I don’t think people like yourself understand how big a jump EUV is from DUV. It took ASML 12 years to jump from DUV to EUV, and that’s with decades of EUV tech know how from America’s national laboratory. To get to EUV, China not only has to do all of the research that took America & Co. decades, but also manage to achieve all of the engineering feats of an extremely complicated global web of specialized suppliers. EUV tech is not vehicle assembly. You can’t will your way into producing EUV tech.

notintelligentidiot

You don’t know what you’re talking about, you’re so out of your depth and it’s annoying how many of you retards exist on this website. China did not achieve a “EUV prototype years ago”, they created a machine just last year that produced EUV light. That’s literally it But creating actual chips goes far beyond just EUV light, in case you did not know. EUV machines contain 100,000 components from 5,000 different companies around the world, all of which specialize in very specific things. The US/West control the vast majority of these firms and China would have to replicate it all or most of it internally to achieve EUV lithography done by ASML. This is not something that China can will its way into, like vehicle manufacturing. This is frontier shit that China will have to work its way into by funding decades of physics research that American labs started 5 decades ago. While China is working on matching current ASML/Western capabilities, western firms will already be years ahead still because it’s not like ASML isn’t investing billions of its own dollars into research as well as America’s national labs (which were the zenith of EUV tech)

vandalizethethief

No comment on MRVL except great company with ASIC chips. They make their chips out of old running shoes hence the term ASIC. Good business to great but Jensen bubbled it. I would avoid all semis and any AI related play from CAT to Corning to Lumentum to ASML until a bottom is formed. You don’t have to be the hero who bottom ticks a dead cat bounce in semis.

No_Current3675

KLAC LRCX ASML my top 3.

Actual_Difference617

52w high for ASML is $1999.96 lol. Whoever had the limit sell at $2000 might have to wait some time.

IBUYVOTES

The drawdown on ASML looks like a good entry on one of the best moats around.

FormalBee3802

Congrats to china on making its own DUV they are almost 10 years behind ASML 🎉

3brcuse

i was bearish MU/ASML/TSMC/GOOGL/INTC earnings beat or lose based on positioning. same pov is much better now for SKHY

SpiderWil

By the time the Chinese is ready, the AI war is already won by the West. By assuming the Chinese can produce the same quality and quantity of memory made by ASML equipment is the same thing that saying the only ASML maker in the world will go bankrupt in 3-4 years. what a thesis.

playstationjeans

Their machine is nearly twice the size of one ASML machine 😂😂😂 Who in the fuck would ever buy the Temu Lithography machine!? Even ASML lithography machines break down and require full stop maintenance from time to time. Imagine this Tony Stark cave invention breaking down. So now we have to have a team of Chinese engineers on staff? When will the parts get there? It's a fucking nightmare. Just makes the entire AI buildout even more bullish if we're even considering using this shit.

OptionsHuduga

here we go with the "STX will make or break memory" moment and fairy tales. just like TSM and ASML saved semi's right? yeah remember that? yeah that was fun.

cupofchupachups

Jensen started 30 years ago. Thinking that China will never do this or that has proven to be false over and over. Feels like it's only a matter of time before they dethrone ASML for example. 

Ordinary_Pen_5605

Why dont you guys calm down? I am an old, old portfolio manager (starting to work in 1987 on the trading floor). So I have some experience with situations like we have had the last days. That happened to me maybe 20 or 30 times. I retired ten years ago. But still love the markets and invest. I sold my memory stocks during the last eight weeks. Mostly a few days to early, but I kept the cash until today respectively jumped on catastrophies like IBM, SAP and so on. (I will make nice money on it). Today was the day, I started to buyback Micron, SK Hynix and ASML. If I am to early, I will double the position within the next days. SK numbers coming, FED coming, Microsoft coming. A lot of less experienced investors are in panic and sold yesterday and today. Seems to be a good time to buy. By the way, I am not a bull, nor a bear. That changes usually three or four times a year. With a bit more discipline and without that stupid "all-in" chatter you can build up a nice portfolio. On the long run. Not within some weeks or months. That is about impossible. Best Regards from an Europoor, who actually isn´t that poor.

_Mido

ASML

Detonate-Ralph

Sure but they'll start competing with some of the ASML and TSMC market as a lot of things don't require state-of-the-art chips, which means less profit, which means very bad for stock

Exfortress

China’s goal is to be completely independent of ASML. ASML’s China sales will go to 0 in a few years, whether 3, 5, or 7. Market has not baked that in.

Jzeeee

It's saying, China is now only country that can produce it's own advance lithography machines without relying or depending on other countries. This is a pretty big deal. Dutch/ASML still need permission from US.

Flag_Shagger

I mean just think about the fud on memory: \- interest rate hikes (the same hike has been priced in 6 times already - wtf?) \- cxmt: valued at $500b and can’t even match mu supply, can’t compete in hbm, will not even satisfy the chinese market. how is this story derailing the memory narrative yet its the most valued company on the chinese mainland? \- open source models: just deepseek 2.0, this reignites the race & demand for semis, its bullish if anything because it improves the ROI for end users & increases adoption -> higher demand for memory \- earnings miss: fud about SK Hynix gonna miss opearnings by 8%, seriously wtf? \- chinese DUV machines: wow so they can build the same machines they’re already importing? they are bottlenecked the exact same way, nothing about the story has changed except ASML loss DUV sales.

Ordinary_Pirate9926

The U.S. already restricts or scrutinizes products in strategic industries because of national security concerns. Why would it suddenly become dependent on Chinese memory? China can’t even meet its own domestic demand for leading-edge memory. They don’t have access to EUV lithography, and they aren’t producing cutting-edge HBM at the same level as companies like SK Hynix, Micron, or Samsung. HBM is one of the most complex semiconductor products in the world. You’re manufacturing structures measured in nanometers and stacking and processing layers through hundreds of incredibly precise steps. The reason companies like SK Hynix, TSMC, ASML, and others remain so far ahead is because the global semiconductor ecosystem is built on decades of collaboration, specialized equipment, and expertise. China doesn’t have access to much of that ecosystem because of export controls and other restrictions. There’s also the security issue. Even if the technical risk of embedding malicious hardware is difficult and heavily scrutinized, no country wants to make itself dependent on critical components from a geopolitical rival when there’s even a possibility of hardware tampering or hidden vulnerabilities. Governments spend enormous resources reducing supply-chain risk for exactly that reason. The idea that the U.S. would willingly replace trusted suppliers with Chinese memory ignores both the technological reality and the national security concerns.

ryzetard

yes it is. its nothing new, china was barred from importing EUV anyway, their tech is comparable to 2006-2008 ASML tech and their production output projected to be like 4% of ASML in 2027. sure, big news, asml is dying!!!11

shaun5pais

China - ASML is nose diving the entire semis market lol

Haunting-Cow9376

Sir please read [https://www.reddit.com/r/ASML/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASML/), they let go R&D middle management, Scrum masters, PO and team architect roles. That the workers union has a strong sentiment against any layoffs is understandable but certainly not a strong argument

xbinary

Chinese companies do not need TSMC or intel to use their tools, it was to use curb export restrictions to maintain manufacturing capability. ASML have export controls where they have limited or strictly unable to service/sell their tools to chinese manufacturers. Chinese companies are also unable to sell their memory ships to US companies, or even sell their equipment to TSMC/intel.

OptionsHuduga

my ASML likes this - go on.

seemsLetschat

Funfact: They are partnering with ASML to achieve this. And the CEO studied in the US and used german patents of a bankrupt company. From first sketch to production in only three years is also very impressive.

GalwayBogger

I don't know where you get this info from. The employees staged multiple walkouts in response, all of the senior engineers in product development, known as architects, were demoted or made redundant. See [here ](https://www.fnv.nl/nieuwsbericht/sectornieuws/metaal/2026/03/fnv-kritisch-op-reorganisatie-asml) from one of the unions (dutch): > In March and April, thousands of employees mobilized. 'About three thousand colleagues participated in a walk-out at building four in their own time. That was a powerful signal: we are not a cost center.' > An ASML employee phrased it this way during the protest: 'I work here with heart and soul, but right now I mainly feel insecure and unheard.' > Peter: 'That hits exactly the core. It is not just about jobs, but about dignity and security.' The action had an effect. Internally, trust turned out to be historically low, according to research by ASML itself. [ASML are already trying to walk back the layoffs, and are offering employees a massive share package](https://nltimes.nl/2026/07/17/asml-promises-employees-shares-worth-eu20000-keep-jobs-till-2030) Indeed they say only managers will be layed off, but the senior engineers have already been demoted, they don't include this since they are technically still employed there... but their careers are screwed.

shaun5pais

Everyone selling ASML lol

Deep-Ad5028

The reason ASML DUV aren't capacity constrained is because there are a lot of customers that ASML could not sell to. Instead of ASML alone, the entire Western semiconductor industry is going to experience heightened competition.

SteveStacks

ASML was literally asking for it.

Haunting-Cow9376

Indeed they did, OP post is utter bs. Engineers were celebrating the move by ASML

SteveStacks

ASML is eventually going to get disrupted

realribsnotmcfibs

Time can be 2030 for all you know. They have built a EUV prototype years ago. Not only that but have poached high up researchers from ASML who were credited for some breakthroughs. People keep talking about “catching up” when they really just need a mediocre machine that somewhat can produce. Even if it had half the yield it would be cheaper or at the vary least another source to put pressure on existing manufacturing. Or better yet all that is needed for China to be willing to tip Taiwan over and plant their flag. Underestimating a billion people and a long term dictatorship with a goal is crazy. Even more so as they rapidly eat our lunch in fields they couldn’t compete in a decade ago.

Icy_Pay7280

ASML cannot make a DUV machine from scratch, they can only assembly parts sourced from dozens of countries into a DUV machine, China can make the whole thing entirely by themselves, thats the difference

ryzetard

they are going to shit out like 5% of ASML's output comparable to ASML's 20 year old tech. ASML IS DYIIIIIING CHIPS ARE WORTHLESS GYNA GOING TO EAT THE WHOLE MARKET GUUUUH they are still leagues behind

ryzetard

4% and basically comparable to what ASML shat out 20 years ago - maybe those fucking retards that told the algos to sell will develop reading skills one day

No-Paint-5726

Geez China producing not even 10% of what DUV ASML produces in a year and the market is scared lol.

Berry-Reasonable

A diversified strategy seems more important than ever but if I were betting I would say Ai is early innings. The Saspocalypse is probably overplayed. I think perhaps the safest plays in these areas are reliable energy (GEV, Constellation Energy), niche manufacturing within the stack (ASML), as well as software with a moat, like Intuit, that has trusted links to the revenue agencies may be some ideas. Trust and expertise are super important for software companies now. Not saying these are best ideas in the quick thesis but you probably get what I mean. Now is probably not the safest time to chase cyclical hardware stocks or maybe even semis but long term or after enough pullback those will be leaders again I am sure. Healthcare, defence and aerospace good hedges.

sentientshadeofgreen

Okay. Whatever. Still lightyears behind ASML and TSMC.

edweirdmuybridge

No one buys Nikon’s DUV scanner because it doesn’t have machine matched overlay. How do you achieve overlay control equivalent to ASML? You have to process tens of millions of wafers. There is no shortcut.

Phantasmalicious

Both ASML and TSMC still benefit from DUV (20-30%). That is still a big part of the market. Not to mention that even if China brute forces 7 and 5 nm DUV, that is still better than having no access whatsoever. With their automotive sector exploding, having homegrown 14/28 nm chips is definitely worth it if they can make them substantially cheaper. But this does no mean imply that they would use it to suddenly start printing 2 or 3 nm. Not to mention that ASML is already moving on to the next stage in EUV.

im-buster

It's hard to make chips mix and matching tool sets. You almost have to do all your DUV and EUV layers on the same tools. You don't have enough scibe real estate to be putting down multiple tool alignment marks, let alone correcting for alignment errors between tools. So if a fab has EUV ASML tools, it's highly likely they will continue to use their DUV tools

Front_Arm2047

The fact is, if ASML's equipment could be sold to China freely, its market position would be virtually unchallengeable, and China would never have committed itself to developing alternative technologies — that would have been economically foolish. But now this issue is a matter of life and death for China. China can only assume that the sales restrictions will only become harsher, so it has no choice but to invest massive resources into developing substitutes. In that sense, the restrictions on ASML equipment have been successful — they have forced China to waste a great deal of resources that it otherwise would not have needed to spend. Life will always find a way.

kaenyne_

Do you even know what a semiconductor is? Cleanroom? Fabs are hard to build and have very punishing unit economics. China competition is straight dogshit. They just announced the “new” development of DUV which is equivalent spec to ASML’s 2008 duv machine. Semiconductors are significantly harder to make than solar panels

grapejuicesushi

google asml engineers claiming that the chinese bros would break the machines and then inspect how the ASML engineers fixed them.

ajn63

The engineer in question is a Chinese native who over many years helped develop many of ASML designs and left when offered a better deal that included the opportunity to develop his own engineering team. Poaching talent is a constant and common business practice. One of my relatives is a high level engineer who is always getting approached by competitors for his talent by multinational companies both domestic and from overseas. Sometimes there no reason to “steal r&d when the person you hire has the knowledge and skills to develop systems and processes that don’t involve patent conflict.

Accomplished-Fix-763

No one's buying these except Chinese companies. But realistically, NVDA, ASML may have to forecast 0 sales to China in the long run. China will just be less efficient and use more resources to achieve the same output. China has a lot of smart people and if they know something is possible, with time and money they will figure it out.

bigfatjuicyeyeball

I can confirm the reorganization is happening, but the details I've heard differ a bit regarding who was actually let go. FOAF who has been at ASML for 10+ years told me that the majority of the layoffs weren't their 'top engineers,' but actually employees on the business management track. Many were folks who took advantage of the company's free master's/education incentives to go into management instead of staying specialized in technical roles like dropper engineering. To some degree it sounds like a management trim rather than a loss of core engineering talent.

lolwut778

You act like ASML has some sort of magical spells protecting it. Everything is a function of resource allocation, research and time. China has both the resources and the engineers to make this work eventually, and they already have several simultaneous projects to push for EUV.

labwerk

yeah, and ASML has a some of the companies below on that ecosystem locked up, the ones that produce the components that are needed to make the machines

PeaBig9855

only taking apart and DUV or EUV machine from ASML and put it back together 🤣 just like they took apart an Airbus for 10yrs and came out with a Comac, but the Comac still uses 70% of western parts 🤣

fthesemods

Actually no it refers to building an indigenous immersion DUV. *Whether China can indigenize photolithography machines is one of the central questions for future US-China competition over compute and AI. This piece uses the experience of ASML as a reference to argue that the late 2030s should be the anchor point for any forecast of when China produces commercial-scale EUV machines, and the mid 2030s for immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV).*

Medical_Button_7933

The problem is not the quality. ASML is at least a decade ahead in that regard and they always keep innovating. The problem is quantity, with enough of them you can match new hardware in terms of performance, if you put enough of them in a cluster. Plus innovation brings innovation and China is showing that they have a lot of brain power nowadays, if you for example look at AI, together also joined by extremely robust production capabilities makes you think twice how fast they are progressing

Tom18558

ASML does in fact sell DUV machines into the Chinese market. ASML has a roundabout 80% market share for DUV. The other guys are Nikon and Canon (who now fancy NIL), though neither competes on the kind of chips which you find in your Laptop. ASML has a quasi DUV monopoly. And it appears that they might loose it.

Ballaroz

The selloff is not because of the DUV of China; it is all about profit taking of ASML. Seriously, ASML is not too long ago at 52 weeks all time high and now trending down.

mm_newsletter

The talent piece is hard to ignore. Recreating that whole supply chain is a huge job, so ASML’s lead isn’t disappearing overnight. I still wouldn’t assume the gap stays this wide forever.

JustAsianThingz

I have learned a lot about fruit flies, more than off ASML. Did not expect.

Laughing-Comanche

Gay bears screaming at the end of western semi conductor industry obviously helps. Retards can simply hold ASML for a year through FUD with fries & still be up >100% at market close today.

Icy-Box6155

Independent technical detail on the specific machine involved in today’s news: reporting describes the Chinese immersion DUV tool as resembling ASML’s Twinscan NXT:1950i from **2008** — an 18-year-old design, originally built for 32nm-class processes. Even if the tool could theoretically stretch to 7nm/5nm, ASML’s current-generation NXT:2000i is generations ahead, and matching sub-10nm production would require redesigned scanners and years of further development.

Icy-Box6155

Independent technical detail on the specific machine involved in today’s news: reporting describes the Chinese immersion DUV tool as resembling ASML’s Twinscan NXT:1950i from **2008** — an 18-year-old design, originally built for 32nm-class processes. Even if the tool could theoretically stretch to 7nm/5nm, ASML’s current-generation NXT:2000i is generations ahead, and matching sub-10nm production would require redesigned scanners and years of further development.

Feeling_Efficiency93

I saw that ASML dip I instantly took a position. Random ass Chinese rumour that dips a top tier stock 10%? That's about as cheap as free money gets.

hakim37

They've had non-immersion DUV for years I posted this down the thread but this immersion machine is actually like 5 years delayed: [https://www.verdict.co.uk/china-chips-manufacture-technology/](https://www.verdict.co.uk/china-chips-manufacture-technology/) Yes it's good for China that they might have cracked immersion DUV but realistically they also had ASML machines on tap to try reverse engineer and it still took them 5 years longer than expected.

Knowhedge

But ASML still sold 279 DUV units last year, and 48 EUV units. It’s a still a big part of their business so you’d expect some reaction [https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025](https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025)

Puzzleheaded_Base302

Japan led DUV litho tools, not immersion DUV litho. ASML took the throne, when they achieved immersion DUV. The most difficult part of advanced process is not the light source, but between layer registration, which is on the motion stage control and calibration process. EUV is a nice and fancy name, newspaper wants to report on. But it is not the hardest part. Reporting on the precision motion control is not sexy, so no media does that.

Comfortable_Thing611

Wtf is wrong with RMBS? Isnt it like the ASML of RAM?

babarryan

EVs are baby tech in comparison. China likes to present itself as the tech superpower that can do everything, but reality is they still suck at the kind of ultra precision manufacturing required to compete with ASML. A better analogy than EVs would be jet engines. Guess what China's market share is for that? Zeeeeeero.

Virtual_Secretary_98

Overreaction on ASML, buy the dip

Ok-Blood4340

I would argue it does not put a damper on future ASML DUV sales… because the important difference is that ASML also provides updates and upgrades to the DUV machines, as well as maintenance. When a company spends millions of dollars for a single machine, they want to keep that machine running forever (economically forever anyway, so as long as it is financially viable.) The question a company will ask is, in the long run, does saving a couple of million upfront by buying a Chinese DUV machine make economic sense? Without knowing what Chinese aftermarket support looks like, the money saved upfront may not matter, especially amortized out over a decade plus. What it could do is allow companies that otherwise could not afford ASMLs machines to purchase the Chinese machines, and obviously China will be the biggest buyer of the Chinese machines (but as far as I know, ASML is currently guiding $0 for sales to China due to export restrictions, so I don’t believe this will affect the bottom line for ASML, but correct me if I’m wrong here.) Neither of those two issues are issues for ASML, since they are not sales ASML would have gotten anyway. This all assumes that the Chinese machines will be of equal quality to ASML, and the only difference is price… and possibly/probably support. If the machine is not of the same quality, then for sure only China and countries that couldn’t afford the ASML machines to begin with will be buyers.

ArtComprehensive7403

Near-term shipment share is probably the wrong denominator. Five machines won't dent ASML's volume, but a credible domestic tool can change how investors price the terminal value of its China DUV franchise long before it takes share. The useful things to watch are overlay, throughput and uptime at customer sites, plus whether domestic fabs reorder after the first batch. Until those data exist, both ‘ASML is finished’ and ‘nothing changed’ seem premature.

Doodl3s

All fair. But we're restating the same thing. The gap may not close but translate... china makes new DUV so ASML comes out with a more efficient EUV in 2-3 years making their DUV-push obsolete, china then gets EUV in 5 to 10 years, etc, cycle continues... China has always been in catch up. Im bullish that companies like nvda, asml, amat, tsm will continue to move that goal post forward (kind of a moores law scenario) and China will keep copying older technologies to catch up.

deezee72

Of course the US and ASML will continue to innovate. But: First, you asked me how long I thought it might take China to catch up. I gave you an answer. Second, obviously there is a lot of long term guess work that's baked into that answer. But I think it's pretty clear that the gap in semiconductor technology between the US and China is narrowing, not growing. China is already pretty competitive in semiconductor areas like NAND and analogy that don't require lithography. Lithography is really the main missing piece in China's semiconductor technology portfolio. As a result, China has made it a priority to catch up in lithography, and now those efforts seem to be making progress. Obviously there is still a long way for China to go before it can fully catches up, but I don't see why we are being so dismissive, especially on long time horizons. Third, obviously it is easier to close the technology gap by copying than it is to take the lead by innovating. But in technology, companies almost always start by copying and switch to innovating once they run out of stuff to copy. Taiwan did in logic chips, Korea did it in memory, and China has done it in batteries. Why wouldn't the same approach work again?

Tofudebeast

ASML has been making DUV emersion lithography tools since at least 2007 when I left the industry. This doesn't put China any closer to cutting edge EUV litho tools.

Badweightlifter

I don't see China or any company in the world ever replicating an EUV. Not even about manufacturing the machines, it's solving multiple scientific physics problems to get them to work. It's like ASML already created a flying car and mass produced it. While the rest of the world is still stuck on EV cars.

AdditionalSpeaker303

ASML is a dutch company...

TheTideRider

This is huge. Immersion DUV is not easy to make. There are only two companies in the whole world that can make it: ASML and Nikon. If China can make it, it is huge. China will ramp up production and dump them into the international market. Other countries will be able to buy them and make cheaper chips. Although it does not affect EUV market, it will affect the chip industry overall.

Nordisksnow

Naa, ASML have had millions of attacks from China, been so for a long time. The Dutch government had to classify the company as military relevance to fight the theft.

Wide-Contribution-29

Is this China DUV development a real breakthrough or a deepseek buy the dip moment?  I mean ASML is getting absolutely fucked today (as are most semis). It’s down like 7% last I saw, 

ajn63

They didn’t. They’re using different process to achieve similar results - a process that ASML tried many years ago and couldn’t master so they went a different route. Also, one of ASML’s top engineers is from ASML.

tradetofi

Is the one in the news the same as the 28nm one? ASML is down 7% .

zerefdragneel1314

Not so sure about overreaction because ASML is top dog and with all top dawgs so it’s hard to keep the lead and they’re only going to lose market share since they’re the only one the field currently. if China Pooh bear prioritizes AI, those China duv lite machines will catch up quick. China is king of copying.