Reddit Posts
1 Month Update/Retrospective on broken wing butterfly/condor strategy.
How to find a business partner? Is it worth to do business with a coworker?
Pomegranates are bullish for airlines
I'm a professional regard and these are my notes 19/12
$BA Yolo update - Withdrew $15k to pay off student debt and buy Christmas gifts. Did I sell more? Nah used the rest of my BP for more calls.
Frec - Low Cost (0.10%) S&P500 Direct Indexing Startup
BP buys $100 million worth of Tesla chargers | CNN Business
My Israel-Hamas conflict play: $PBR "Hey dummy, you're looking at the wrong continent."
Stocks Overlooked and trading at a Discount---$MIGI, $SING, $SDIG. $BITF
Buying strangles not increasing Options BP anymore (margin call)
Tritium (DCFC) Amazing Earnings & Margins Released Today!!!
BP CEO Looney to resign after personal relationships with colleagues - FT
How are brokers like Lightspeed or Dash Prime for portfolio margin buying power?
Turkish Lira situation after the 750 BP interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Turkey.
Conviction Buy List of Goldman Sachs. Which recommendation is your favorite?
Tritium (DCFC) (Electric Vehicle Charger Manufacturer)
Is the rate hike tomorrow already priced into the market?
‘OilyFans’ billboards show BP chief executive topless after earning £10 million
Tritium (DCFC) Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
Diversifying a portfolio that is heavily correlated with SPY
Tritium (DCFC) Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
Tritium (DCFC) (Electric Vehicle Charging Stations)
BP Attributes a 12% Year-on-Year Reduction in Operating Expense to Palantir's Software Implementation Amid an Inflationary Environment🌟🚀
🚨🚨 BP Engineer Hyped on Palantir's Future - Screenshot Reveals 26 App Explosion! 🛢️🔮
How do we feel about going long on oil?!? BP,XOM, CVX, SHEL maybe even OXY
Federal Officials Trade Stock in Companies Their Agencies Oversee
Meet BP's Board Members | I wrote this article yesterday for those interested in BP stock
Digital Age for Big Oil using Big Tech $HAL & $MSFT ; $AMZN & $BP, $SHEL
To raise or not to raise? How does the Fed choose as banks blow up and hit hyperinflation? What do you think?
$AIM Try to name another bio stock in trials with $BMY $MRK $AZN and PFE.
BP buys TA 1.3 Billion why would BP buy a Truck Stop
Government Money Going To Be Released Tritium in the catbird seat
BP's pullback from green commitments angers some, but investors lift shares 19% (NYSE:BP)
BP CEO says company will stay firm on investment strategy~?
BP’s Value Tops £100 Billion for the First Time in Three Years
Oil and water don't mix. Therefore should Big Oil and EV go together?
2023-02-08 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Not Beyond Petroleum after all — BP says it's increasing investment in oil and gas as much as it's boosting renewable spending
Earnings week ahead: PepsiCo, Disney, BP, Chipotle and more (NYSE:DIS)
Oil and water don't mix. Therefore should Big Oil and EV go together?
We have finally reached 410… 2-1-23 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Daily Market Analysis (and FOMC review)
BP to cut back on renewable energy, oil company figures out what it is... to late.
Why Do Regarded Retail Think JPOW Will Hike Anything More than 25 BP Tomorrow When Every Other Indicator Says No?
Ukraine war to help speed shift away from oil and gas, BP says (NYSE:BP)
BP Cuts Long-Term Oil and Gas Demand Outlook. It’s Good News for Renewables.
2023-01-20 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
here is my analysis on Indo. Please let me know what you think
Here is my analysis on Indo. Please let me know what you think??
Here is my analysis on Indo. Please let me know what you think
I have $1k in BP, top comment decides what I do with it.
30.12% SI. 1.29bn M Cap. 1.3bn Cash. 2.6bn cash + Assets. NVAX
Why can't I see a steady profit maker, is this the norm?
Mentions
That you are using Fidelity for options raises a lot of Red Flags. Not something they do well. That you let options expire also raises a lot of flags. Basically you are Buying back your Option and in the same trade Selling another Put further out in time For MORE MONEY, and thus a credit. Ideally the platform would help you set this up, but your basic objective is to do the trade for a credit. You should be able to create the trade (a buy and sell) submit it , and if not taken after a minute cancel replace and lower the credit. If you have do this 20 times who cares, your objective is to get the most money you can. If Fidelity makes this type of trade difficult then go to Tso, Tasty , or another broker. If I am not mistaken I think Tasty lets you do this off the position page , click on the current option and pick a new one, but I am not currently using them so cannot say for sure. Also why are you using Cash Secured Puts ? I know people on Reddit talk about it endlessly but it is terrible leverage. You have to have all the Cash tied up in one trade. If you have over 50k in your trading account think about Tasty they give everybody in a margin account the ability to Sell Options. The Buying Power for selling Puts , Calls , or both on Amzn, Appl,Googl, Coin,Bidu, Nvda, is in the 4k-6k range. However remember the objective is to Sell the Option, and close it before expiration for a profit, not end up with the stock. You are unsure of what Buying Power is ... I think Fidelity hides it , while Schwab-Tos and Tasty show it as you setup the trade. Here are some Tasty vids on BP. Getting approved to sell options at Schwab is tougher . [https://www.tastylive.com/shows/tasty-extras/episodes/a-refresher-on-bpr-06-29-2020](https://www.tastylive.com/shows/tasty-extras/episodes/a-refresher-on-bpr-06-29-2020) A Refresher on BPR Jun 29, 2020 [https://ontt.tv/3jAf4Ba](https://ontt.tv/3jAf4Ba) Buying Power Factors Oct 28, 2020 [https://ontt.tv/2CLbOjn](https://ontt.tv/2CLbOjn) What Affects Buying Power? Nov 14, 2019 [https://ontt.tv/JeGVN](https://ontt.tv/JeGVN) Short Puts vs Covered Calls vs Poor Mans Covered Call Jul 9,2024
I have $64 left in BP today what play do I make
probably the most common UK export people use on a daily basis is going to fill up at their local BP gas station, or if you wear contact lenses, you'd know Bauch&Lomb as a brand.
luxury goods and specialty foods (Burburry etc), fuel and petroleum byproducts (BP etc), pharmaceuticals (AstraZenaca, Bauch&Lomb etc), transportation (freight and cargo containers etc)
Going to take a really bet on the BP/Shell deal making some progress. At these oil prices that might fall hard on my feet, but equities scare me at the moment by pricing in zero slow down to growth so special sits is all I really feel comfortable doing. Few puts here and there but those are also expensive as fuck. Long dated Palantir puts from yesterday I'll hold even after retail pushes that up, but I might buy some equity to ride the inflow at the same time.
Yeah it helps, I'll look at premiums and try to close early. I was just trying to capitalize on inflated IV anyway, plus this play is taking up much of my availabl3 BP and there's other earnings I wanna play this week
>And if it’s that cheap and plentiful, why the fuck are we fracking in the first place? Politics and optics of environmental concerns. Fracking doesn't impact anything surface level so out of sight out of mind assuming you ignore the flaming faucets and sinkholes. Drilling off the coast has always been cheaper but the environmental risk are pretty high which can have negative impacts to gulf state industries like fishing and tourism (beaches/seafood). California doesn't really even fuck around with offshore drilling but that coast is a borderline untapped black gold. BP oil disaster was a bad look on offshore drilling and lead to leases being cut by the president for the sake of optics. Now with EV vehicles continuing to not be able to demonstrate practicality we are probably going to see a resurgence in offshore drilling support. Hybrids will not go anywhere but this EV future is getting cooked in the US until you can tow a 6500 trailer 100 miles without needing recharge.
Only $40 BP left. What options play can I make (Serious)
So is shell is down nearly the exact about BP is up, I assume from the news Shell might acquire BP?
No judgement here bro. I'd be selling strangles if I had the BP. And I'd never presume to tell another how to trade their book. Nice gains, cheers!
I have a margin account with Robinhood though, not a cash account. I did check Tasty and it seems the BP requirement for this trade would be around $11k. Not sure why Robinhood requires 5x that much for the same trade.
That is what a Cash account would require ANYWHERE. A margin Reg t account 6k-10k depending on broker. This really is not hard stuff .... you are selling a naked Put in Spy, you could add a naked Call without increasing BP.
Interesting! 1) I never think about the equivalent positions (though I'm aware of them), 2) When buying stock I never think about margin reducing the BP (because I almost never buy stock). So I just plotted them both out on OptionStrat, and of course you're absolutely right: same P&L graph. With Reddit at 113.79 over this weekend, 100 shares at 25% BP cost $2,845. The 90P costs 2,640, so add those to get $5,485. The 90C costs $5,628, so like you said, **the** ***synthetic*** **Call is cheaper!** PLUS, you get the dividend (if any), like you said. Thanks, I'll keep this in mind next time I'm buying a long Call.
I have found that the big companies move relatively close together and they almost always follow the commodity price. Juniors are another story. If oil goes up $5 next week, all the big boys will be green and their increases will be relatively close to each other. Trending that's valuable for options plays. Long term, I agree that they are vastly different. XOM, SHEL vs BP, CVX Good luck
OXY, COP, and BP. Love/ Hate with BP. They always seem so close to turning things around, but often let me down again. OXY seems to be the love of Buffett and others. It's probably my biggest oil holding right now. COP just to track the average/ trend. I sold a Put on OXY recently. Will probably do a few more. My huge energy play now is Uranium. It's an odd market with more volatility, but it's fun and I have a lot of confidence in Uranium long term. It's the only answer, in my opinion, for a world that wants lower emissions and higher consumption.
Distraction from other terrible things they are doing, and making libs hair constantly on fire, so that there’s just a constant stream of controversy and normies tune it out. The “flood the zone” Bannon/Russia tactic. It works. Kamala lost because she wasn’t visible as BP, some people didn’t like her laugh, didn’t have enough time to campaign, basically stood for status quo in voters minds (maybe racism/sexism too). But the point is, her real or perceived flaws could be counted on your fingers. Orange guy is an endless stream of outrages so they just become a blur to the average voter. Similar to crying wolf. The very few things they perceive him doing well, they remember, much like Kamala’s, or his primary opponents, perceived flaws.
Doctor here, bottom definitely dropping out faster than a patient’s BP after a ruptured AAA.
There’s no way a takeover of BP would ever be approved on anti-competitive grounds right??
the cheapest gas I could find is a BP in Texas @223 (how ironic lol) gallon so unless this dumb fucks brain is stuck in like 2005 he must have drove past a Costco in Teaxs or something on his was to his 5th golf trip on the day
I mean give me a watch that can measure BP, glucose or any other health measurement, and make it work…. And i will recommend the fucking watch to everyone under the sun
Buying back its own shares does the same thing at Shell's valuation (slightly better, even) and you're not buying up BP's capital intensive garbage investments. The whole point of the past 5 years' outperformance vs BP was that Shell divested of that.
I bought some Rio tinto shares for their dividend, I think is spent about £10k, ended up shooting to £33k just as I was looking to remortgage. Ended up being a (very lucky) home owner before I was 30. I also owned shares in a small company (I won’t say the name). I was sold them at a 25% discount. The small company was eventually bought by a very large company. They let us move our shares over and invest in the larger company, obviously the acquisition caused shares to sky rocket and I ended up doubling my money on my £9k investment. Again, very lucky… And now a loss… I invested loads into BP; a company notorious for its massive dividend which they’d not cut since WWII… Covid hit, petrol shares were hit badly (obviously nobody’s driving) and they dropped the dividend before I even received it. I sold at a huge loss. Then post covid the shares made a massive recovery and began paying dividend all over again. I’d been so hurt by the experience I didn’t have the balls to buy these shares at bargain basement prices (to be fair there were moments where I thought I’d be stranded in my house until I died, so perhaps it wasn’t as cautious as it felt at the time). I’m out of investing now, it’s been a fun ride which I’ll come back to one day… just not now.
Honestly? I think BlackRock is evil enough. They are mainly just apathetic, realist, and self-interested. They actually make very few investments themselves but create offerings the market wants. In short they just go with the flow. They were all for ESG a few years ago when there was demand for it, but then go into crypto when it's offered even though their own CEO thinks it's stupid. As for stock? Blackrock actually does pretty well investors of BLK. Maybe something like BP? Destroys the world by lying about climate change in the 60-80s, continues to pump fossil fuels, pushes bogus science regarding climate change, [skimps on investments/regulations/hiring/checks which leads to the BP oil spill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill), destroy the gulf of Mexico for generations, require huge cleanup effort, ruin the lives of those that live there, and ALSO CRATER INVESTOR EQUITY (BP is down over -82% since 2007 peaks).
Just shorted BP 2 hours ago. Holding some of my positions for other stocks the rest sitting in cash waiting for new lows to come out
I’m shorting BP waiting for it to strike below $26
They have more exposure to tariff risk than people realize, but they have commodity price exposure that GM doesn't have. Of course, BP can just fire 40% of their workforce if they need to, unlike GM.
Even BP, the most terribly run company of the oil majors, who missed earnings are still doing $750m buyback this quarter 😂😂😂😂
What? Buybacks are great for shareholder value, but only if the sentiment is that the money couldn't be spend in a better way. Generally speaking buyback > dividend but not at the expanse of growth (acquisitions, innovation etc.). Bad case example is BP
Based on TAM for addressable market. There are 2 assets, one in phase 3 (GPS), the other in phase 2(sls009). Both have multiple indications, but will take a lot of time to run all the trials. Most who are familiar think that bc GPS is tackling the worst case scenario of AML— it will grab the attention of BP. Sls009 has already been a homerun, but cohort groups 4 and 5 due 1st half of 2025. 1-3 data is amazing though. No doubt both assets will be grandslams. Only question is timing.
I hear you about the better buying power doing iron condors while retaining the ability to craft delta neutral/positive/negative outlooks. And yes, this strategy would benefit from volatility crush just like an iron condor. For whatever reason, this "put ratio + call spread" strategy seems to have a faster exit. I think it's because the combination of the call spread and long put gets you to your profit target quicker when the underlying drops, and when the underlying doesn't go up too fast, the 2 short puts (which is where most of your initial income came from) decay faster than the long put and you exit the trade relatively fast. I have also toyed with giving a longer duration to the long put, which helps increase theta even more on the overall position... but you get a smaller initial credit. So, I think the niche scenario for this is a basically like an iron condor with a faster exit (and thereby reduced risk) profile, even though you're using more BP. I don't worry so much about BP as long as I'm meeting my weekly target. Perhaps I should try this strategy in addition to an iron condor on the same underlying and see what happens!
Good post. I think that fully diluted, the warrants and OS would be more like 150million—so your marketcap/bo prices are a little off, but broadly correct. Personal opinion—BO offer will come 2-4 weeks after 80th event is announced. There will be several BP wanting the assets. It is going to be huge
There are a bunch of ways to splice it, but if I'm reading it correctly it's basically a put ratio spread + a call credit spread. I've traded plenty of call credit spreads, but never a put ratio spread. You're managing far enough out that pin risk shouldn't be an issue with the put ratio spread. Closest thing I've experimented with was a naked short call at 12delta combined with an OTM put debit spread at 20-30delta where my sentiment was that the underlying would move down. But I have no crystal ball so with that strategy even if the underlying trades sideways or slightly up it still profits. And if I was right on direction it max profits. Another way to splice your method would be to nest this strategy (delta negative) with a "gapped" synthetic long on either side (delta positive). It seems like the strategy is a fine delta neutral to delta negative strategy, albeit a lot of contracts (and contract fees). I guess the real question is what niche case is this targeting? If delta neutral and/or trading volatility just trade iron condors or short strangles. If directional, trade directional spreads or condors that are not delta neutral. I think you'll also get better margin/BP efficiency.
I mean investors have been happy to take Exxons money or BP Mobile for decades after we knew what they were doing to everyone. Markets have no morals.
OK SPARKY. Calm down, now you have to do the hard work. Before you do any Naked Selling, sign up at [Tastylive.com](http://Tastylive.com) and start reviewing or the vids. They are on 8am-4pm Et . Everything is recorded . Give yourself a few months to figure out stuff. Some key points , understand Selling Options. Yeah I sell Puts, but you need twice the BP when you make the trade. Since the BP doubled in the recent Tariff mess, if you did not have the increased BP needed to hold the Put , it would have been closed and you would have had to buy the Put back. So for an ITM Put by 10 if assigned only loses you the $10 \*100 =1000, but if you had to buy that Put since you did not have the BP you might lose another $2000 because of the extrinsic (theta) value in the option. If this is not clear now take your time until you understand it. The reason Tasty can give you the works , since they understand BP and collect (put dibs on) enough so that even if you lose they do not. Big firms , have Big lawyers, Lawyers always avoid risk, even when they do not understand risk. Also Lawyers think they know everyone else's business , they rarely do. Also keep your Tos account. I find the analyze page better than the Tasty one. Also the Thinkback is also nice. I am not big on Selling Calls (that could be changing). Here are some Tasty vids on how they roll. See if Tasty will send you Julia's book, if not get it. Unlucky Investors Guide to Options. Strangles [http://ontt.tv/2dMq2De](http://ontt.tv/2dMq2De) Portfolio Allocation for Strangles: Part 2 Oct 3, 2016 [http://ontt.tv/2dDMvVk](http://ontt.tv/2dDMvVk) Portfolio Allocation for Strangles (Part 3) Oct 10, 2016 [http://ontt.tv/29UTPKb](http://ontt.tv/29UTPKb) Allocating Capital For Strangles Jul 18, 2016 [http://ontt.tv/2arkzzb](http://ontt.tv/2arkzzb) Managing Strangles - Performance Aug 5, 2016 [https://ontt.tv/Cb9kJ](https://ontt.tv/Cb9kJ) Probability of Reaching 50 Percent Profit Sep 6, 2023 [https://ontt.tv/ZhM7S](https://ontt.tv/ZhM7S) How to Manage Trades in IV Drops and Peaks Sep 20, 2024 [https://ontt.tv/2B7hMgt](https://ontt.tv/2B7hMgt) Strangle Analysis Aug 13, 2018
An EV car company with a manic ketamine addicted CEO with subpar products and increasing competitors edge reducing their moat, about $150. Even then that's high for a company with one of the worst worldwide brand damages next to Enron and BP during the oil spill. Most parts of the Europe refer to Teslas as Swasticar.
They filed SEC paperwork around transfers of stock shares upon acquisition in DEC. They also hired Stifel and 2 new board members who handled M&A. Further, the sentiment from most people is BO. Almost no one has spoken about them bringing this to market internally or externally. With the type of drugs it is and how versatile they are , 20 forms of cancer it can treat.... BP would be dumb not to buy out right the entire company.
Spotify? Red Bull? BP oil and Shell? Bosch? DHL? Siemens? Volkswagen? Renault? Heineken? Nokia? Lego? Surely you have heard of these.
BP is still hated by a lot of people here lol. People have not forgotten. And what Elon has done is arguably worse and more broad-reaching. BP oil spill severely affected the gulf coast. What Elon did affects all of us.
He's the ceo dude. Reputation risk is one of the biggest risk factors for businesses. Trying to do a what-aboutism with BP doesn't make him hurt the business reputation. BP is like trying to boycot your local electricity. Tesla has a lot of elasticity where Oil companies not so much.
You don't buy "BP", you buy oil or gas and its a pretty generic commodity. Tesslers on the other hand send a bit of a message atm.
I don’t know…. I think his branding is now permanent. The people who would buy the vehicle will not forget the nazi salute and the chainsaw antics. BP wasn’t as personally offensive, so more forgettable. No…. I don’t see Tesla as a viable corporation anymore.
Yea. BP dumped ships full of oil into the sea. Musk made a hand gesture. It's telling how far the simulation has drifted that the good guys defined one now and attack the other. And feel morally superior about it.
Zoom out bro. People will forget about all this shit eventually, the same way they forgot about BP and all the terrible things they’ve done. See? Yall gotta Google it to even know what tf I’m talking about.
Thanks for doing the leg work, but Honestly confused. $250k margin for a $200k box? Then what is the point of it? Or is it that PM would give you access to the funds and count towards your borrowing? Otherwise it seems like you’re just reducing your BP by putting on a box in Reg T. Full disclosure I’ve not spent much time on how your bp, margin requirements are affected when you throw boxes into your account. I’m also considering moving to PM. Reg T is just too restrictive.
Where are you getting that inflation is high? March CPI came in at 2.4%, by the way you’re talking it sounds like inflation is 6-7% They literally just cut rates at the end of last year. Not sure why it’s unachievable that they could do it again. A cut of quarter BP would have the market soaring. Again, market wants to go up. Not sure why people on Reddit are so biased to think the world is ending.
Short OTM Put and Call is a Strangle. No they are not big on on Covered Anything. The guys who do this ARE NOT HERE. Tune in Tastylive they have thousands of videos on this after 15 years. If you do not have at least 25k for a Margin Account forget it. Here are some of there vids on BP. [https://www.tastylive.com/shows/tasty-extras/episodes/a-refresher-on-bpr-06-29-2020](https://www.tastylive.com/shows/tasty-extras/episodes/a-refresher-on-bpr-06-29-2020) A Refresher on BPR Jun 29, 2020 [https://ontt.tv/3jAf4Ba](https://ontt.tv/3jAf4Ba) Buying Power Factors Oct 28, 2020 [https://ontt.tv/2CLbOjn](https://ontt.tv/2CLbOjn) What Affects Buying Power? Nov 14, 2019 [https://ontt.tv/JeGVN](https://ontt.tv/JeGVN) Short Puts vs Covered Calls vs Poor Mans Covered Call Jul 9,2024
Fuck it last of my BP on 7 day spy Poots.
Webull doesn't, but they open positions using the credit for the option sale as part of your collateral, which skews your return on cash. Ex: just opened WOLF June 20 $2 puts for .50 premium. $150 BP+50 credit used as collateral for each of them. Return on cash skews from 25% to 33% because of cost to open being lowered.
Can you sell options with 2k BP?
I have 2,000 BP what should i get?
Because there are far bigger players who take longer to get moving in the energy sector and they are beginning to get going. Tesla had an advantage here from 2015-2022 they could have leveraged much more to make themselves the BP of grid scale energy systems, but I see that window for them to become that player having closed. Panasonic, Energizer, GE Vernova, Fluence (Siemens and AES). There are others, but when you see big names like GE and Siemens getting involved and starting to ramp up, and forming partnerships with other providers, that doesn't bode well for Tesla being the big dog in the long run in this area. GE and Siemens have decades of trust from utility providers, and an understanding of the needs there, that's not an easy change. And the issue of Elon being as polarizing as he is, as long as he's associated with Tesla, there are going to be a lot of local and state governments and utility providers hesitant to work with them because of the backlash they may face.
Wtf happened to oil? BP was up 5% and now it's red? ¿Que?
- unrealized losses so $80k ish was $70-75k Monday before this rally. I fucked up big time last week and had to buy UNH (United Healthcare) @ a much larger price than current mkt price. W out that I’d be closer to $100k I almost only sell options. Rarely buy. I love selling far OTM, playing both sides, and collecting premiums. NFLX has been a HUGE $ money maker. I sell 100-150 pts away usually & get a few bucks per contract, sell like 5-10+ contracts, it depends what my BP is. NFLX has been my main stock that brings income every week. I sell next week expiration prior week. I’ll sell the puts when stock is down, and the calls when stock is up. The premiums are MUCH LARGER when u sell on Wednesday for example prior week compared to Monday the next week. Even Friday to Monday is a huge drop due to theta over the weekend.
Just FYI. There is an IPO today. One that I can see. Called FCHL so if anyone is using a cash account I would suggest keeping some BP just in case. Always a gamble but if it works out its a GREAT gamble. Personally I will probably be putting 100% portfolio into it if I see the bid/ask increasing before if releases and getting out at the first halt down ,no later
Well if you have 1000$ and 10.000$ in buying power - 1:10 margin. You buy 10000$ worth of stock (whole margin). Stock goes down 10% - to 9000$. If you sell now, how much money will be in your account? Correct, 0. You will not lose 100 of yours and 900 of brokers. You lose your 1000$. Your position will be liquidated even before stock loses 10%, as your BP and liquidity required will be tanking as stock/market moves down. Brokers protect their assets. What you want to do, is in addition leverage it with short dates options. So market movements are even more amplified. Let me rephrase it. Don’t trade options until you know what you are doing. Send money to charity instead. You trying to trade advanced strategies, that people advise you against (you don’t even want to listen!) without understanding the basics.
LMFAO I was curious and fed the latest Gemini model the mango scenario we're currently seeing : >The economy would likely enter a deep stagflationary recession. Inflation could reach double digits, driven by tariffs and the collapsing dollar. GDP would contract significantly due to plummeting consumer spending and business investment. Financial markets would experience high volatility, with likely sharp declines in equity prices and ongoing dysfunction in the bond market where yields remain stubbornly high due to inflation and risk concerns. The dollar's rapid decline would exacerbate domestic inflation and could trigger broader financial stress. The lack of domestic production capacity means shortages of certain goods could appear alongside generally higher prices. The situation would be extremely difficult to manage with standard monetary or fiscal policy tools, risking a downward spiral. This scenario is derived directly from applying standard economic models (like IS-LM-BP framework variations, Phillips Curve analysis under supply shocks, models of exchange rate determination, and effects of trade policy) to the severe initial conditions outlined in your prompt. JPow gonna have an aneurysm... Cataclysmic scenario inbound if no reversal
Give an example why is your max loss only $50? It shouldn’t be requiring more BP than the debit you are paying for the long call
Just statically speaking (check on AI if you want the build out), BP will not wait for SLS009 to complete phase 3 if GPS has. Price just goes up, and bidding for war happens. Would drive price up. No reason for Sellas to sit on GPS.
I normally sit tight and when a great company stock takes a dive due to headlines, I’ll buy 1000 or 2000 shares then wait for a 2 point rise and write covered calls about 2 weeks out. Go look at the BP chart over the last 10 days. Beautiful. Plush they pay a 5.5 % dividend if I catch one of those
Yay now we can invest in Vodafone, BP, and British tobacco 🥳🥳. Tech is the future. America not going anywhere. So many doomers on Reddit lol
This is SOLID advice: Stay overweight the European versus US stock market, until the US valuation premium unwinds from its current 50 percent to a ‘fair value’ 25 percent, is very solid advice, plenty of UK companies going for a song right now see for example BP ITV
Here’s my criticism of this garbage study published in a garbage journal with an impact factor of 0.4: -It’s a Narrative review only: no defined search strategy, protocol, or PRISMA flow; high risk of cherry‑picking. -No quality/risk‑of‑bias grading: animal studies , case reports and RCTs lumped together without weighting. -Heterogeneous exposures merged: e‑cigs, water‑pipes, and heated tobacco treated as the same “vaping.” -No quantitative synthesis: makes strong claims without pooled effect sizes or CIs. -Out‑dated / overstated toxicology: repeats debunked nicotine LD₅₀ (30 mg) and early‑generation device data. -Short‑term physiology ⇒ long‑term disease: acute BP/HR changes equated to chronic smoking mortality. -Ignores dual‑use & dose–response: doesn’t separate exclusive vapers from former/dual smokers. -Funding/COI opaque: where is the fucking funding?
If only BP hadn't bought out Travel Centers of America in 2023 that would be the put play. https://investsnips.com/list-of-publicly-traded-trucking-and-transportation-companies/#:~:text=With%20approximately%2020%20publicly%20traded,choices%20for%20investors%20to%20contemplate. Maybe Ryder $R too, announces quarterly on Wednesday the 23rd and not trading that far down yet. They are the flexible overflow company, when you have more demand than owned trucks available Ryder will rent one at a high price.
I am actually technically doing that, but with different indicators. It essentially amounts to what I’m doing though. I haven’t perfected exactly where the best entry point is yet, but I think I got a good lead the other day. It’s going to severely reduce the number of trades I make, but it should increase the WR about 10%, which is crazy because as you said it’s already at around 70. I think it should be fine though because it will just open up more simultaneous instruments I can use, I’m kind of maxed out around 15 right now with my BP and frequency of trades.
Literally hate you for making me look at this. My BP jumped up like 30 points.
How is fortifying the border pitting the military against US citizens? Theres hundreds of BP agents there and theyre still stretched paper thin. Have you seen the scale of that country?
There's not enough BP left for that move!
This man also cried on air asking the Fed for a 75 BP emergency rate cut bc stocks dropped a few percent.
6’3”, 225, BF 19%, BP exactly in normal range, and he’s in the thousand pound club for the big three.
New south park episode incoming. Coon and friends part 2 only that this time it won't be BP releasing Cthulhu
WSJ says 4.32 after a brief stint at 4.45 — this print must be a glitch (fake news?) a 50 BP daily spike would be like the end of the world “In summary, a 50 basis point one-day jump in the 3-month T-bill yield would likely cause significant market disruption, prompt policy attention, and signal acute financial stress or a major shift in economic oulook” to put it mildly
This is like bragging about the BP Oil spill… it was the most tremendous oil clean up in history. (They cleaned up about 25% of it.)
XOM Puts. Should be some money coming out of XOM and into BP/CHV with the gulf oil news
BP found a new oil deposit in Gulf I believe
Someone bought 19,000 31C on BP. 🤔📈
i couldnt take that risk. esp not having a whole lotta BP
Here’s hoping. I would love it if BP closed at $20 next week haha
*Cries in silence holding 4/25 expiry BP puts…*
Even so, ftse index 100/250 is terrible. You are better investing in specific companies. Shell, Bunzl, RR, previously BP, Barlcays/HSBC. Games workshop was good as well.
God bless I stayed on my healthcare job instead of becoming daytrader, I would had a 200/120 BP right now
IBKR only shows one BP number and it's 360k. I know if doesn't sound like, which is why I'm seeking advice. Yeah VT is pretty close to SPY cause it's like 60% SPY, but still is a bit less volatile. I'm happy to sell less put options as long as I can keep holding VT and keep rolling XSP without getting liquidated. How do you write Tom? And why would he reply to me? I'd give it a try though.
Is that 360k buying power or Stock Margin . If you only are using 260 shares then your BP for Selling Options is only going to be 260\*533\* .5 = 69k, so I am not seeing 360k. I do see 280k as margin buying power which I never use. The VT chart seems about the same as Spy (with different numbers). I think it is a BAD IDEA. You may be familiar with most of those vids concepts. Tasty did address how big you could get a couple of times this last week , when they went to all callin mode 8am-11am ET. You best bet would be just write Tom@ and explain what you have and ask what that would support . My rule is just keep whatever BP shows for the position as backup.
For a CFA, you are not telling us much info, just how you feel. So you have 150k in Spy. So how much BP do you get, I will guess only 50% which is 75k . Trouble is your 150k in Spy dropped in value. I will guess you had 250 shares valued at 150k at 612 per share. Shares at 480, so 120k, half 60k . So your 75k BP fell to 60k BP. I am pretty sure your BP per option hit 10k or more. Assignment would have been way better , but when they closed you out you were hit with all the extrinsic value (theta). So your problem was your BP was in Spy , if it had been in Sgov you would have been fine , but you got a double whammy, Spy Puts BP doubled while your BP went down. The rule is have the same amount of BP in reserve as the original option requires. You would have know this if you followed Tastylive. I do not think you got decent advice from IB. That said I totally agree with your outlook of selling Puts. Tune in Tastylive everything is recorded and free. Here is a sample. [https://www.tastylive.com/shows/tasty-extras/episodes/a-refresher-on-bpr-06-29-2020](https://www.tastylive.com/shows/tasty-extras/episodes/a-refresher-on-bpr-06-29-2020) A Refresher on BPR Jun 29, 2020 [https://ontt.tv/3jAf4Ba](https://ontt.tv/3jAf4Ba) Buying Power Factors Oct 28, 2020 [https://ontt.tv/2CLbOjn](https://ontt.tv/2CLbOjn) What Affects Buying Power? Nov 14, 2019 [https://ontt.tv/JeGVN](https://ontt.tv/JeGVN) Short Puts vs Covered Calls vs Poor Mans Covered Call Jul 9,2024
So you are selling CSP, but that is a lousy use of your money if you just want to trade options. You will do a CSP on Spy , so you have over 50k tied up either in cash . In a Margin account you could invest the cash in say Sgov, get interest ($200+ a month) and get 70%+ Buying Power. Sell a 15/20 Delta every month and keep half the premium before closing . Right now the 16May 488 Put 20 Delta shows $8. The BP is 7k leaving you with plenty of spare BP as backup if we fall.
Right, so then back to gambling... Again my point was gambling/betting with options vs using them to protect your holdings or port. You could also just buy leaps calls and sell shorter term calls against them. Or you can just naked short, but you're either going to be putting up collateral (BP), or go uber gamble using margin.
There is no need to own the stock to collect premium on options...waste of BP.
Total Bull and just shows you have bought into the Reddit Hype . You should have at least 50k, but I have done it with 25k. Next question if you do not have 50k who will let you Sell options ... Tasty. So how does the broker protect themselves ? Buying Power ( cash or cash like) stuff in your account. Here is the rub , while you may be able to Sell a 20 Delta Put in Amzn, Appl,Googl, Coin,Bidu, Nvda, for 2k-4k BP, that can double if you go ITM, which has happened. So what happens to your P/L , well it looks really bad, since say that 545 Spy Put for 4.75 on Mar 25 is now selling for $25 , so that is $2000 DOWN. But here is the real story, if exercised the dummy Reddit who exercised will lose half of that 25 since the stock is OTM by $12 , the rest is extrinsic value. The Seller was forced to use 4k for the original order , which did go to 8k but if assigned the loss is only 12-4.70 = 7.30, call it 7.50 or 750, hardly the end of the world for a 25-50k account. Of course if you do not have the backup BP for a margin call, you will have to pay 25-4.7 = $2100 loss which will hurt. If you are going to do this have at least the same BP has backup as the original order required, so if 4k to open have 4-5k as backup maybe more.
I'll admit I screwed up with EL but I'm in too deep at this point. BP's dividend yield is incredible, 6% plus. I'm definitely not doing Ford as a longterm play, just a short term to juice dividends. I thought it was worth taking a risk on WBD given their P/S ratio is something absurdly suppressed like 0.5.
LVMH is a great company but 31% imo is rather excessive. Would keep that at a smaller size, would keep BP given Elliott activist campaign, would keep Amazon. ASML is fine. Perhaps Apple but less and have to hope that everything going on works out perfectly. IMO: Definitely no to Ford, would not be interested in Comcast, WBD is not a good business (with an absurdly overpaid CEO.) DIS/EL are "well, they're not going away" but that doesn't mean they can't continue to be not great investments for the foreseeable future - I mean, EL's continued decline is almost impressive at this point. What is the catalyst within a reasonable time frame for these to really turn around? CMCSA has media/theme parks/broadband. Broadband is competing with 5g to the home, media is not in good shape. I mean, the cable channels used to be a decent business, now all of them are being spun out aside from Bravo while PARA and WBD take massive write-offs on the value of theirs. The movie business is looking less and less appealing, network TV is a melting ice cube, etc. At some point with theme parks (both DIS/CMCSA) you're starting to price out more and more of the population.
Very true. I’m reminded of George Soros’ theory of market reflexivity. People don’t trade logically based off of fact. They trade based off of their perception of reality. It likely took a few days for people to wrap their heads around the implications of the oil spill. Looking at the chart, it looks like volume steadily increased on BP throughout the week of the spill. The stock gapped down at least one day, and traded flat for two. That Friday was a decent Green Day. Then of course as people had the weekend to process the news beyond just “oh that looks bad, wonder what the next bad thing to happen will be” the stock started plummeting on Monday. All of which is why I think we have so much volatility in the market today. 70 million people (and shrinking) think everything Trump does is 5D chess and that he can do no wrong. They’re the ones buying the dips and either turning those profits or else getting obliterated on the downswings. Another huge (and growing) chunk of the country feel the opposite. And then a bunch of people are just content to sit around and watch TikTok videos and instagram reels and don’t really give a shit. Then amplify that by the rest of the world. All the millions upon millions of individual investments made in US stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. Some of those people hate Trump. Some love him. And when Trump declared Tariff delays for most of the world, it stands to reason that most of the world breathed a sigh of relief and took their finger off the proverbial button. Be that the sell button, or other. The more subjective the news, the more prone to interpretation, the less clarity, the more disparity there will be between “reality” (terrible consumer sentiment, insane trade war with China that’s escalating daily, etc) and what many people consider reality, (“yeah the trade war with China is bad, but things could have been so much worse! And look, the bond market didn’t implode on Wednesday! We might still be in a storm, but it’s no longer a category 5 economic hurricane. Smoother waters must be right around the corner”.)
It's surprising how frequently bad news hangs around before the market moves sharply down though. The BP oil spill was news for days before BP's stock was significantly impacted. The "liberation day" tarrifs were known for weeks and the market acted like it was a surprise. Yes, the market prices in stuff like the hope that the BP spill was actually small news, or that DJT would act rationally. But often these cliffs are easy to spot miles ahead if you're willing to take some risk.
LVMH (MC)-31.42% Disney (DIS)-17.03% Apple (AAPL)-15.23% ASML (ASML)- 8.65% Amazon (AMZN)-7.23% Ford (F)-5.13% Estee Lauder (EL)-4.98% Comcast (CMCSA)-3.60% BP (BP)-3.21% Shell (SHEL)-2.02% WBD (WBD)-1.50%
Yeah I was thinking that. Or do 50% of my BP on 1 and 50% on another and both at -5+5?
Put credit spreads, as in with a long tail to cap BP requirement
Been here since the C.O.M.A days. Just returned from a distant far southern rum punched Atlantic island, not with Bob on the Job. Due to a possible post strep infection condition and/ or foolish sibling property bickering stress ,my BP spiked from 124/82 to 170/105. Two medical appts, swabs, M.Arts breathing techniques, and a yet to be reported blood test results, have not corrected this serious crisis. Due to travel and this medical issue(s), I paused taking my homemade oils. Last night, took a few mls of THC oil and my blood pressure plunged top and bottom by 40 mmHg or more if the BP machine is correct. Perhaps what some people term as “ greening out”. Well, I support the ideology that “ reality is for people who can’t handle some drugs“ not judging. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, which I mostly stopped years ago, except for” free range” hash, when introduced to vapes. For what it’s worth , turned 13k into 70k with Canopy and have watched 4-5 other companies burn out or completely fade away. Finally, some shout outs that may get me banned, don’t care. I miss south Detroit Blue, secretly wishing that he had had the opportunity to work as a CFO for either a LP or MSO putting his expertise where his tent grown bud was, the Chartman, learning some and still confused by most of his sage monologues , and, finally, but, not by any means the least ,the “Spaceman- Ziggy” fan with his sound grounded counsel! Turn on, tune in , drop out “ Flash Backs “. Signed A Most Comfortably Numb traveller of both Space&Time.
I should've bought puts on OXY!! damn. I went for BP instead
We did trade a little to venezuala because the big boys like Chevron and BP have interests in the oil fields, but the prez ended that a month or so ago.
Yeah I did. Sort of. With my BP on RH. RH is my "spare" Buying Power. I use it to invest long term in shit, however sometimes I randomly buy day trade stock. But shit happens.