BW

JackDonneghyGodCop

Ever spent anytime on the BW parkway?

Deviantbullet55

Some good news in for Fisker!! [https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202404150630BIZWIRE\_USPRX\_\_\_\_20240415\_BW448733-1](https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202404150630BIZWIRE_USPRX____20240415_BW448733-1)

__Evil-Genius__

Sunrun-SUN. The US’s leading residential solar installer. They are coming out of their growth phase and will be looking to cut costs and debt and are moving into their profitability phase. Up 12% on that position. Argan-AGX. Construction company for power plants, communications infrastructure, and other utility oriented projects. Pays a dividend, and has a healthy chart. Slow growth, but a safe and healthy company. Up 1.94% on that one. CSI Compressco-CCLP. Manufactures and develops technology for compressing natural gas. Probably a growth opportunity with instability around foreign energy supplies. I see a lot of upside here, even though it’s already gained a lot in the past year. Babcock and Wilcox-BW. A dinosaur. Has their hands in a lot of pots in and around the energy sector. Beaten down big time. Close to its 52 week low. Insiders have been buying shares incrementally and they seem to have a turn around plan and are aggressively implementing cost cutting measures including selling off their solar sector, but these insider purchases could just be a defensive tactic to prop up the price and stave off delisting. If they develop a breakthrough in carbon capture it will definitely moonshot from its current value. High risk, high reward. Down 16.5% on this position.

zeik_the_streak

There was a Fed meeting in the middle of GCT and PCE comes out Friday. I do agree that it is ranged bound until earnings. But if you are in options you are discounting the push in IV that comes with earnings. Other catalysts are companies that report before NVDA and companies discussing purchasing of NVDA BW. Unless is closes above 1k, NVDA will trade between 850 and 950. Earnings are a roll of the dice and agree that taking profit before is a smart move. Use the capital to take advantage of the IV crush post earnings.

btctrader12

Up to 93.5 since this post https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/LFE1P5I2BW Get in before it’s too late. Should be at 96 within a few hours. NKE 95 3/22. Should do a 5x from here

madsheeter

I've learned to just take the 20% and then jump back in when it falls 50% lol. That said, I have been trying to swing BW right now, and am now holding a bag...should have sold last week. A company like BW will bounce back though

diamondzRforever

Calls on BW3

lightningfoot

Great time to buy. Big technical bets like this take time. They are making significant progress. The knock on effect of the end of zirp, market taking a dive and BW3 delays still having an impact today - I don’t think they have an execution problem. There are some seriously negative fudsters out there that seem almost motivated to keep sentient down. I’ve just doubled down myself. Will be happy to see it 2-3x from here and then hopefully a much longer and stronger rally next year

derprondo

Ok that was actually a good one, cheers lol https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExaHVlNDV5c3ZwbWc5N2ljbTkybDh1aGI5aWw3YmxxZ3NlbTJhdnhhZCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/l8tpwRJEwDwEFU5BW0/giphy.gif

Rubiscon95

The whole market : goes down  SMCI : [Do I even have to say it ?](https://youtu.be/Jlj2BW8AtUQ?si=2yFb2KZoOGKM5uHd) LLY : Up 3.5% 

ZookeepergameSalty17

Buying more BW Offshore shares

namjd72

Logged countless hours on SC,BW and SC2. Miss that game and all the fun mods I would play.

Super_Chemistry_6893

$BW

ZookeepergameSalty17

I just bought shares in BW Offshore. if you want to get rich, this is where it happens!

Important911

https://youtu.be/8VtvB_BW5XE?si=drbfLz5m7XeyBJTw Comedian DISRESPECTS George Floyd & Says He Would SHOOT Him Instead Of KNEEING

IceColdDump

See you at the beach https://youtu.be/Ihahns3-Cf0?si=ACY-5BW-HdsEUjOq

JellyfishQuiet7944

Have no clue. Had to look it up. Weck? ARE YOU THE SAME COMPANY AS BW-3? Yes, when we opened our first location in 1982, our original name was Buffalo Wild Wings & Weck – thus the BW-3. We're sure this poses another question: What the heck is a weck? “Weck” is short for kimmelweck, a Kaiser roll seasoned with special toppings. These tasty rolls are popular on the East Coast and were served at our restaurants when we first opened. In 1998, we officially changed our name to Buffalo Wild Wings.

TheSmooth79

https://preview.redd.it/3tc52p559cec1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=552d2d28ac9625c2cdfb859f56145a60991b7fde Part 3 These operating earnings were achieved even though important RILY businesses such as Wealth Management, market making, trading and underwriting have been in a depressed operating environment. The recent rebound in IWM and improving 2024 interest rate expectations suggest RILY 2024 operating results are likely to be higher in 2024. Given strong Q3 results, a $400 million 2024 operating earnings estimate for 2024 seems very reasonable. RILY has $114 million par value of preferred stock which I'll treat as debt. I'll assume that the total unrealized impairment on Franchise Group is $140 million and $71 million for BW group. As noted by Chief Financial Officer Phillip Ann on the Q3 earnings conference call: "Total debt net of cash and investments was $311 million at quarter end." Therefore, RILY stock should have a value in millions of dollars of about: (400 X 6) -(425 net debt & preferred) - (211 FRG + BW impairments) = 1,764 RILY has 30.6 million shares outstanding, so the $1.764 billion fair value of the equity works out to $57.65 per share. Note that RILY raised $115 million on 7/28/2023 selling shares at $55 per share. This is very consistent with my calculated fair value estimate of $57.65 per share. As per the 7/28/2023 press release: "Certain of the Company's officers, directors, and employees participated in this Offering and have purchased, in the aggregate, approximately $7 million of shares of common stock at the public offering price." Is the RILY dividend covered? The $1 quarterly RILY dividend on 30.6 million shares amounts to $122 million per year. Therefore $400 million of 2024 operating earnings would cover the dividend about 3.3X. This suggests that RILY should be able to cover the dividend in 2024 while simultaneously reducing debt. RILY insiders own about 34% of the shares (see page #4 of Q2 investor presentation) and must enjoy receiving that generous dividend. There are some incentives for RILY to reduce the dividend in favor of share buybacks or debt reduction. At a recent price of $14.85 the par $25 RILYZ baby bonds are trading at just 59 cents on the dollar. Buying back baby bonds on the open market would reduce debt and be very profitable. RILY has a $50 million share buyback program. Buying back some shares at current prices would also be an attractive option. On the Q3 conference call, there was a question about the possibility of reducing the dividend from Sean Hayden of Charles Lane Capital. Bryant Riley answered the question and defended the dividend: "...the dividends are very important to us, and it's important for us to return a portion of our EBITDA to shareholders." Excellent baby bond coverage Net RILY debt was $311 million as of Q3 2023. Let's adjust that for $211 million of expected impairments from Franchise Group and BW. Therefore we have: (adjusted net debt) / (2024 operating earnings) = $522 million / $400 million = 1.3X RILY's current debt level is really quite modest given the expected earnings for 2024. A highly leveraged company would have a multiple of about 5X. What are the major risks See pages 9 - 46 of the 10K annual report for an extensive discussion of risks related to RILY. I've briefly highlighted a few of the major risks here. A smear campaign by shorts can cause stock volatility even if many of the allegations turn out to be false. RILY has some investments including a portfolio of retail brands and Franchise Group that would be vulnerable in a recession. Some other RILY businesses such as retail inventory liquidation are counter-cyclical and would benefit from a recession. RILY debt such as RILYZ is currently trading at very high yields and would be difficult to refinance in the near term. Fortunately, RILY has very light near term debt maturities, substantial cash and operating earnings to repay debt as it comes due. Conclusion B. Riley Financial, Inc. stock appears quite undervalued even after adjusting for potential losses on their Franchise Group and BW investments. The estimated fair value of RILY stock is about $57.65 per share using a 6X multiple for estimated 2024 operating earnings of $400 million. RILY traded above that price earlier this year and could easily more than double once the panic selloff has ended. The RILYZ baby bonds are also a bargain, trading at just 59 cents on the dollar. RILY debt trades as if RILY was a highly leveraged company. However, (adjusted net debt) / (2024 operating earnings) is only 1.3X.

TheSmooth79

https://preview.redd.it/49yidwqz8cec1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7529a88bc9f77909c6d68ec628bade56f0af8994 Part 2 The Russell 2000 Index (RTY) tracks smaller companies that are comparable in size to typical RILY client companies. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has been rallying since it bottomed at $164.52 on 10/31/2023. The market now expects that interest rates will drop significantly in 2024. Lower interest rates ahead and the rally in IWM suggest that business conditions are improving for RILY. Recent insider buying There have been eight insider buys filed since RILY reported Q3 earnings. Chairman and Co-CEO Bryant Riley bought 30k shares on 11/17/2023. There was also one forced insider sale by Andrew Moore due to a margin call. As explained in the filing footnote that sale does not indicate management sentiment: "The sales reported in this Form 4 were made by a broker, without instruction by the Reporting Person, to satisfy a margin call. As a Section 16 filer, the Reporting Person has not otherwise sold shares of the Issuer's common stock and the Reporting Person intends to continue increasing his investment in the Issuer over time." Is the Franchise Group investment impaired? RILY's stake in Franchise Group was valued at $281 million on 9/30/2023 (see page 15 of the Q3 10Q report). Note that the $281 million includes new money invested of $217 million as well as RILY's prior investment in Franchise Group that was rolled into the buyout. On the Q3 conference call Bryant Riley strongly defended the valuation and purchase of Franchise Group: "We would have bought all of Franchise Group. We are a huge fan of that business." However let's be conservative and assume that RILY's Franchise Group investment has lost $140 million in value (about half its initial value) due to their weak Q3 earnings report and the subsequent credit downgrade by S & P. RILY also bought receivables from the Badcock Home Furniture & More unit of Franchise Group. However, those receivables were rapidly collected or sold. RILY owned only $34 million of secured Badcock receivables as of the Q3 earnings report (see page #14 of the 10Q filing). Estimated BW investment impairment As of 9/29/2023 (last trading day of Q3), BW was trading at $4.21. Therefore the 27.8 million shares of BW owned by RILY had a Q3 fair market value of about $117 million. BW sold off and traded recently at $1.65 which would value RILY's stake at about $46 million. The fair value of the BW stake has declined by $71 million since Q3. RILY history of regulatory compliance As a public investment bank, RILY is subject to intense regulation and scrutiny. There are Directors, internal auditors, an external auditor, reviews by credit agencies and bank lenders. As a broker / dealer, RILY is also closely regulated by FINRA. Given some of the allegations by shorts regarding Franchise Group and RILY, I thought it would be appropriate to check the actual detailed FINRA regulatory records of Bryant Riley (CRD#: 1702453) and B. Riley Securities Inc. (CRD#: 25027) using FINRA's Broker Check tool. Bryant Riley's report shows that he has been licensed for 34 years and passed 10 FINRA exams. During that time he had 1 regulatory incident back in 1998 which was settled with a $12,000 fine and AWC (Acceptance Waiver & Consent). The report for B. Riley Financial, Inc. shows 13 regulatory incidents since the firm was licensed in 1989, but no incidents since 2011. Some minor regulatory incidents are common and expected for any major broker / dealer. It's impressive that Mr. Riley has not had an incident in the last 25 years and RILY has not had a single incident in the past 11 years. Clearly RILY has a strict culture and focus on regulatory compliance. Investment banking peers trade at 9X - 13X earnings In order to estimate a fair valuation for RILY, we should look at other medium sized independent investment banks and then adjust for RILY's unusual business model and somewhat distressed recent state. Stifel Financial Corp (SF) is trading at 9.8X 2024 earnings estimates. Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR) is trading at 13.3X 2024 earnings estimates. Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is trading at 9.3X 2024 earnings estimates. Evercore Inc. (EVR) trades at 13.4X 2024 earnings estimates. RILY has a hybrid business model. There are some traditional investment banking businesses such as wealth management, market making, underwriting, trading and financial consulting. RILY also has businesses such as telecom, retail brands and retail inventory liquidation that are not typical of an investment bank. Traditional investment banking peers trade at about 9X - 13X 2024 earnings. Since RILY has some recent distress and a hybrid business model, I'm going to apply a much lower 6X multiple to 2024 operating earnings. What is RILY stock worth? As noted in the Q3 earnings report, RILY had: "Operating adjusted EBITDA(3) of $107.5 million in Q3, up 34% sequentially; and $267.8 million for the first nine months of 2023"

badgebruce

Borid tweet 3h Tune in to my live chat with the folks at Bloomberg Business at 3:20pm ET. We’re diving into all the recent movements surrounding #Rescheduling, #NewYork, and more. u/BW u/BloombergRadio

Individual_1ne

Crypto bros: you are [here](https://www.tradingview.com/x/JV87qIu5), right where we were when [BITO IPO'd](https://www.tradingview.com/x/xyaeP5BW), only this time, you have to let 10 different etf's punish their new users.

Spuri0n

You are, try to do 5 pull-ups with an extra 25% BW, I bet ur fat ass cant

No_Investigator3369

There's real academics out there positioning its use beyond store of value alone. But most people are chasing the store of value story. US Major Jason P Lowery wrote a book called Softwar that touches on some on the technological and strategic possibilities with bitcoin. Oddly it was taken off of [Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/Softwar-Projection-National-Strategic-Significance/dp/B0BW358F37) and people remain tight lipped about that. Another academic out of Switzerland has started to further elaborate on pieces of that concept with research papers discussing how to interweave the technology into TCP/IP frameworks. https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.15842

yeahdudesurething

Big Willie. He started williecoin in 2014 which blew up to a $2B market cap and BW cashed out

VariationConstant675

No crayons? Only BW?

Mr_E-_-

 The shows only about to start, this is with only a few people in comparison to AMC GMEs MILLIONS of holders

Mr_E-_-

 idk if you understand how squeezing shorts works, first you have to make them feel confident, then they go all in on their Short positions, then the rest of the week is making them pay.

M47774M

“Thanks for the Advice!” BW Die Hard

thewallran

[https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2023:newsml\_L1N3BW2H9:0-u-s-economy-harder-to-kill-than-michael-myers/](https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2023:newsml_L1N3BW2H9:0-u-s-economy-harder-to-kill-than-michael-myers/)

thewallran

[https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2023:newsml\_L1N3BW2H9:0-u-s-economy-harder-to-kill-than-michael-myers/](https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2023:newsml_L1N3BW2H9:0-u-s-economy-harder-to-kill-than-michael-myers/)

GeoLogic23

Burt's Bees is a very popular brand, which some are surprised to know is owned by [Clorox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burt%27s_Bees). Burt's Bees had a CBD line for a while, which explains why Clorox was one of the first companies using Fyllo (cannabis marketing). [(source)](https://www.semasio.com/articles/q-a-with-the-clorox-companys-jackson-jeyanayagam). Right now Burt's Bees appears to only sell hemp seed oil products. [(source)](https://www.burtsbees.com/shop-all/shop-all-products/) Clorox currently only has a single lobbyist, Mr. Philip Klein. They lobby on a single topic: "Cosmetics regulation - naturals definition". [(source)](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/c0e50be0-6e62-451a-89cf-e237926d68ef/print/) [(source)](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/search/?registrant=&registrant_country=&registrant_ppb_country=&client=clorox&client_state=&client_country=&client_ppb_country=&lobbyist=&lobbyist_covered_position=&lobbyist_conviction_disclosure=&lobbyist_conviction_date_range_from=&lobbyist_conviction_date_range_to=&report_period=&report_year=&report_dt_posted_from=&report_dt_posted_to=&report_amount_reported_min=&report_amount_reported_max=&report_filing_uuid=&report_house_doc_id=&report_issue_area_description=&affiliated_organization=&affiliated_organization_country=&foreign_entity=&foreign_entity_country=&foreign_entity_ppb_country=&foreign_entity_ownership_percentage_min=&foreign_entity_ownership_percentage_max=&search=search). Philip Klein only has a single other client. They are registered with him as "RB", but on their two other registrations they go by their full name, [Reckitt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reckitt) Benckiser [(source)](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/54b18e89-94e7-4c85-9271-b1d11dd147e7/print/). Reckitt is part of JAB Holdings, the holding company of the ultra-rich German Reimann family, who are behind [Coty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coty) Inc (cosmetics), as well as a million fast dining and coffee brands. Most notably Keurig and Peet's Coffee. Reckitt is run by a 40 year British American Tobacco executive [(source)](https://reckitt.com/our-company/our-leadership/nicandro-durante/) and JAB Holdings is very closely associated with AB InBev [(source)](https://www.reuters.com/article/ab-inbev-chairman-jab-holding/ab-inbev-chairman-goudet-to-step-down-idUSL3N20S4BW). Note in that source, the guy from JAB stepped down because JAB was becoming too similar to AB InBev's beverage business. For a long time I have loosely associated Privateer Holdings (Tilray) and Acreage Holdings (John Boehner) during 2018, due to the nature of their relationship described in James Pericola's lawsuit against John Boehner. [(source)](https://mjbizdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Boehner-lawsuit.pdf). During 2018, Boehner joins Acreage while later AB InBev partners with Tilray. Note that Tilray was really into CBD early on, and BAT is very focused on CBD. They described CBD as the focus of their OGI investment, they have North Carolina cannabinoid company Open Book Extracts, and obviously they have their Charlotte's Web investment. Note that Tilray/CWEB are connected right now. [(source)](https://investors.charlottesweb.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2022/Charlottes-Web-Enters-Strategic-Alliance-with-Tilray-for-Manufacturing-and-Distribution-in-Canada/default.aspx) To connect back to lobbying between Clorox (Burt's Bees) and Reckitt (BAT), when Charlotte's Web had their founders the Stanley Brothers try to take over the company earlier this year (with BAT's support) they tried to appoint 4 replacements. Three of them were Stanley associates, and the fourth was Angela McElwee. [(source)](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230612014469/en/Charlotte%E2%80%99s-Web-Co-Founders-Jesse-and-Joel-Stanley-Seek-Changes-to-the-Board-to-Enhance-Shareholder-Value) McElwee spent a long time leading Gaia Herbs. This is the North Carolina based supplement company currently run by a Burt's Bees executive [(source)](https://www.gaiaherbs.com/blogs/our-people/jim-geikie) So Aphria merged with Tilray and started focusing heavily on beverages and Germany. They will later buy assets from AB InBev, who are closely associated with JAB Holdings. Meanwhile Auerbach left Tilray and went to The Parent Company with [Troy Datcher](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-parent-company-appoints-troy-datcher-to-serve-as-new-chief-executive-officer-301356218.html) of Clorox, who connects directly to JAB Holdings via Reckitt. Per SEC filings, the Aphria/Tilray merger was first discussed between Michael Auerbach and Irwin Simon in late 2019 ([Page 47](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1731348/000114036121005532/nt10018953x1_prem14.htm)). Just a couple months later Aphria would get their mysterious $100M investor. [(source)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aphria-inc-enters-into-agreement-to-receive-100-million-strategic-investment-from-institutional-investor-300992782.html) All that to say that I'm still very bullish on CBD, and that my current #1 candidate for the $100M investor in Aphria is the Reimann family of Germany.

Minimum_Pineapple119


_thebatman47

Lol there was a correction. Core PPI was 0.2 BW 0.2 est

Dwellonthis

There was cases of cheating in SC2. But the bigger one was with Savi0ur in BW. And frankly, every esport should be strict about enforcing a non-chrsting environment. This is where the NA scenes failed. The problem with SC2 was that the game isn't the same quality as brood war. It's good but not quite as good from a competitive point of view.

VoidMageZero

Esports can definitely become a thing like the early niche days of SC:BW in South Korea, but economic value added in general is questionable.

Brilliant_Star9229

i take it you've never been to BW or spoken to anyone who worked or has worked there. ​ BW compensation is competitive but not greater than similar roles in finance that do not require joining a cult.

Thegiddytrader

Nope! That’s why I haven’t executed any buy-writes on it yet, (although the two times I worked out my trade and didn’t pull the BW trigger, it went up nicely.. obviously 🙄) Yet at the same time, I hesitate buying NVDA options because they’re too expensive, thus I thought, if I don’t think they’re worth buying then they must be worth selling.

Southsidetaco

Musk is the type of guy to we are a bedazzled Tapout shirt to watch an undercard at BW3

igotthis_man

Finally hit two plates lfg 225lbs BW: 150 lbs

Hot_Juggernaut4460

That info is just not correct. The financials are not great, but they are still in startup mode. Spending money on their test satellite and building the start of their constellation. They’ve launched the test satellite BW3 and have had promising results so far. A small block of satellites is up next which should start the initial revenue stream. They have dozens of MNOs signed with carriers around the world (non-binding). Best case: avoid dilution via some of the rural broadband government funding or funding from partners, possible DOD use cases, technology all works out, constellation goes up without delays, initial block of satellites supplies enough revenue to self-fund the rest of the constellation Bear case: dilute the shit out shareholders, too many delays and lose their first to market advantage, technology doesn’t work, etc. Disclaimer: I have a small position that I am fine with going to zero.

farmtechy

Haven't been to a BW's in a while. Everytime I went in the past it was cold wings and shit service. Or not enough sauce. Still like hooters wings more.

brucekeller

It's probably not healthy to lose 10% of your BW in a week is it? That's some Christian Bale shit.

Onlymadeforxbox

Haha the demographic the Vp of marking trying to get was less then 1% of America. Them boycotting BW wouldn’t hurt them. It’s killing them they didn’t understand their customer base and it’s them who are effecting BW sales

kurzalevski

$COOL DA, with the previously announced LOI Noventiq, A Leading Provider of Digital Solutions for Growth Markets, to List on Nasdaq Through Proposed Business Combination with Corner Growth Acquisition Corp. BW

jackfruitsmoothie

BW3 Tuesday special.

burrowed_greentext

Adductor/abductor machines and hip thrusts with 2.5x BW for u bb

ASTS_SpaceMobile

I loved your post, with one modification. You stated that the technology has been proven. That is not correct. I'm hopeful and optimistic that it will eventually be proven, but it has not yet. Abel's tweet was that the the phones were "exchanging SIM and network information" with the Sat & that they are looking forward to a broadband connection. They have not yet accomplished a broadband connection from BW3 Sat to unmodified phone.

moar-warpstone

Still remember when I was an intern and we had a Q&A with Ray. Everyone asked questions and then one girl asked how Bridegwater thought about diversity. Ray deadpanned and said “we don’t like to lower the bar for women…” and moved on One of the funnier and stranger things I’ve ever seen in a professional setting. This is BW of course so everyone gives feedback on iPads and Ray got destroyed by everyone in the room (of course it didn’t matter) Anyway, that’s my Ray story.

KAX1107

I've been in the energy industry 8 years. You clearly didn't read the comment linked explaining why bitcoin is a boon to our energy infrastructure. Bitcoin is a LOT more than just software. Claiming to understand bitcoin just because you're a software engineer is ipso facto proof that you don't understand bitcoin. Unless you first think critically from first principles and [understand money](https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1124cxd/bitcoin_wont_beat_fiat_as_a_medium_of_exchange/j8itipz/), you're never going to understand bitcoin. You're where I was before I did the work. It's not embarrassing not to understand, it's embarrassing not to do the work. Read the Ethics of Money Production, The Bitcoin Standard, The Price of Tomorrow and US SF Major Jason Lowery's book, [Softwar](https://www.amazon.com/Softwar-Projection-National-Strategic-Significance/dp/B0BW358F37/). Do the work, seriously.

freshisback

I think I got charged $4 for a “coke” at BW.. a mixed drink was cheaper 🔥

KAX1107

Money in its purest form is a privately produced market good, a commodity. Bitcoin commoditizes energy and turns it into pure informational currency that travels at the speed of light and physically settles peer-to-peer from any corner of the world to any other corner of the world. Energy currency has always been the holy grail. Go back a 100 years, [Henry Ford proposed the idea](https://medium.com/capriole/the-energy-standard-b726edeed588) but was blocked by the banking establishment of the time. Satoshi invented the way to make it unstoppable. Highly recommend reading US SF Major Jason Lowery's [Softwar](https://www.amazon.com/Softwar-Projection-National-Strategic-Significance/dp/B0BW358F37/). 8,000 copies sold in 3 weeks on Amazon. [Get. Off. Zero.](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1615389267437490177.html)

boolda

Do you really want to know what makes US market so special? Or you are here to simply to pull down other people’s opinion? In one world “Bretton Woods”. As long as dollar is the reserve currency in the world, US market pull is so much of money that the growth of S&P500 is statistically impossible event. US dominance will continue as long as world follows BW agreement and don’t switch back to gold.

areolegrande

Bollinger BW is like auto-aim for speculative traders

Ethereumman08

The more you research the stock, the more you start to get a feel these bear cases may be unsubstantiated too. The recent hype from AT&T and other MNOs has me tempted to believe there are positive results from the BW3 test. On top of that, look at the funding apple gave GSAT! If this tech is proven to work, I think ASTS will have little issues with the funding side.

mrscyimsofly

Its technically a laundry mat 😒Quaker state and BW3s is better

Diamondhands4dagainz

Yesterday was my first gym session back after a week being sick, and I benched 1.5x my BW 

forthetorino

And 2x BW deads.

aka0007

Let's take apart this DD that is not actually DD. Would be better if the OP just said buy ASTS because I think it will go up and I actually did not do any DD... ​ >At that point Bluewalker3 had just unfurled, thereby reducing the tech risk to reasonable levels which gathered quite a bit of attention. No idea how reduced risk to reasonable levels here is accomplished. Unfurling is not the same as demonstrating that you can economically provide sufficient bandwidth for this service to be very profitable. ​ >ASTS is expected to release details about connectivity in the coming weeks, which will most likely include the 1st ever video call using direct phone-to-satellite. This will be a monumental milestone which may or may not correlate with price movement. But it will definitely result in global news coverage for ASTS while leapfrogging them to the lead position of satellite communications. You are hoping this is what the details will show, however until people see details on actual performance this is completely a gamble. ​ >Recent weeks have seen a flurry of MNO (Mobile Network Operator) signing with ASTS. The total potential user count of ASTS services via their MNO partnerships now stands at 2.1 **BILLION** or 27% of the world population. Here’s a list published by ASTS CEO and also a list from Twitter Nomadbets showcasing the insanity of collaborations: What is the cost or commitment for a MNO to sign with ASTS? If there is no cost or only minimal cost it is like every EV company out there that touts pre-orders that cost next to nothing. You really are not providing any useful information here that shows anyone actually is convinced this will work. ​ >Existing partners like AT&T have recently ramped up their social “shilling” of ASTS and are constantly teasing the upcoming satellite broadband products... This type of talk is "free" and does not indicate that anything will happen. Marketing departments talk up all sorts of things over time. ​ >The relationship with FCC and ASTS has improved substantially. One of the main ASTS contributors on AST subreddit has noticed that FCC is now often responding/approving ASTS requests within a 24 hour turnaround. It’s obvious that FCC has seen evidence of ASTS tech viability and now considers them a credible candidate to help with rural broadband coverage (which by the way is a huge political tailwind for many Senators from rural states) The FCC is a regulatory organization and their responses tell you nothing about how this will work out. ​ >ASTS recently secured the contract to launch 5 Bluebird satellites into orbit with SpaceX. BBs are a bigger version of BW3 which are currently being built and expected to launch before EOY. Again, how well does the technology actually work and can this be done economically by them? What about competition? All seems to hinge on the actual data they need to provide that no one has. ​ >Patent portfolio continues to increase at a fast clip. This is the textbook definition of a strong Moat. Once those satellites are in orbit and delivering EBIDTA at +90% profit margin it will be very, very, very hard to compete with ASTS without legal hurdles. And yet others are going into this space. Maybe their patents are for uniquely sized spanners. Can you provide a detailed technical analysis why their patents are "key" for anything here? ​ The rest is again more speculative thinking that all rests on how good the technology actually works and whether they can scale this economically. Really that one key detail you have nothing to say anything about, except expect them to release some info in the coming weeks. My own assumption is the actual data released, despite their efforts to window-dress it, when examined carefully will not give confidence to their business model and the stock will likely drop in value as investors flee it. I may look into Puts or Shorting here. Thanks for bringing this to my attention again.

stickman07738

LOL, my[first phone](https://images.app.goo.gl/BW4bDKtiuv5EEEg48)

lehcarfugu

https://i.imgur.com/BW8iPiL.png must be tough being disabled

ImplyingVolatility

**Challenge Account Update** I've been talking about *That Fucking Trendline* for half a year now, so that is what I've been trading. Bought lots of puts when we hit *That Fucking Trendline* resistance on 1/17. Sold on 1/18 for around $1000 profit. This helped to recover the big losses I took at the start of the month. Bought lots of calls when we finally broke through *That Fucking Trendline* on 1/23. Ended up getting stopped out on the pullback for a loss of around $400. Rebought lots of calls when we again broke through *That Fucking Trendline* resistance on Wednesday. Sold on Friday for around $900 profit. Very simple strategy, go short at resistance, go long once resistance breaks. I'm surprised so many of you tried to fade this rally when That Fucking Trendline getting killed was the most bullish thing we've seen in over a year. As always, follow the price action. I'm in full bull mode right now. Currently out of all my options positions, but holding 4 chair positions. I have started loading up on breakouts and will be buying a lot more on the next pullback. [**EH Chart +20%**](https://i.imgur.com/Gpg0rxD.png) [**GDS Chart +13%**](https://i.imgur.com/3Q9hNEy.png) [**PTON Chart +8%**](https://i.imgur.com/KVzP3gs.png) [**IQ Chart +3%**](https://i.imgur.com/45BW575.png) Here is the current SPY chart. I'm expecting a small pullback to either 10 or 20ma in the next week or two, but the price action is clearly bullish medium term. I'm going to get very aggressive buying as many breakouts and EP setups as I can find in the weeks ahead. [**SPY Chart**](https://i.imgur.com/2RlEnFh.png) The account has reached a new high and broke $12k / 200% return for the first time. If the bear market is indeed over I expect to start making strong returns again. **Current account value: $12,150. Total % Return: +204%. SP500 Return: -3.1%** **Third-Party Verified Trades:** [**https://kinfo.com/portfolio/23162/performance**](https://kinfo.com/portfolio/23162/performance)

Natural_Bag_3519

Thank you. Yeah I like drinking too. If have enough money to forget about it in your Roth, what's the point of pulling out now at a loss? Sounds like you want out, I get that. You know BW3 test results should be made public relatively soon though, right?

Specialist_Shallot82

BW. Massive government funding and turn around on nuclear energy. I believe in the work they do and all over the news is stories of nuke stations life spans being extended and new reactors being built all over the EU.

2ndguessllc

The truth is the WSB folks think theyre smart. I was just trading the stock. Even through the split. When Elon said he was done selling in April I believed him. I didnt think he would buy Twitter. Then boom, boom, boom, boom. If anyone here knew then I'd say theyre trading on inside info. Thats the truth u can take the rest of ur financial bullshit and shove it. I got caught in an avalanche that could only have happened with a large number of triggers (at least 5-6). WSB didnt get on BW until December late November. Now they know everything about Tesla. I just threw up with the stench in here.

FavelTramous

Just Anne, she made a profit and is a great teacher. Thanks to her I turned $500 into $700,000 in just 4 months. Thanks to her I never have to work again. Hit this link to speak with [her.](https://youtube.com/shorts/BW1aX0IbZOE?feature=share)

14446368

>As per 2021's 10-K DMED takes up about 75% of revenue while DPEP takes up the remaining 25% What are the 5 or 10 year average split? You're looking only at a single year post-COVID. One has to assume COVID-style silliness won't last forever, and therefore there will be some sort of move toward the mean, at least in the medium-term. You can model out your expectations on timing there. >I'd assume that in the best case scenario Disney+ does not raise prices to continue attracting subscribers. Disney+ just recently raised prices (I would know... I got the email about it!). So far streaming subscribers tend to be sticky, but any research into demand elasticity would be a good idea to conduct. >"reaching between 230 and 260 million paid Disney+ subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024, and with Disney+ achieving profitability that same year.” If you can find earlier projections/plans and see how Disney+ is tracking those expectations, that would be good. >DIS seems to not be very efficiently run with margins being at 9% for 2021 compared to 17% for 2019 precovid. Smaller margins isn't necessarily a sign of mismanagement or inefficiency, especially in COVID-world. Typically there's an implied balance between margins and revenue growth, where if you aim for revenue growth, you usually need to take on additional costs (advertising, maybe additional hiring, maybe overtime pay for certain employees, etc.) to provide for said growth. When you're cutting expenses to pad margins, you lose some of the revenue-driving. >So overall, EBIT is likely to at the best case scenario maintain at 9% from last year's margin. Are you only projecting out one year? >Y/Y revenue growth for 2022 I'd assume it's going to increase from 3.10% in 2021 to about 5.75% in 2022. Revenue growth is likely to be driven mainly by higher subscribers but other than that, I'd expect not much growth. Similar comment as previously: look to history as a basis for expectations. Further... [Disney's Earnings Report](https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2022/11/q4-fy22-earnings.pdf) for FYE 2022 shows a ***22% increase in y/y revenue.*** Not sure if you've got stale data or an earlier valuation date, but this is quite higher than your stated expectations. >For 2023-2025, under the assumption that the FED's interest path and goals are met it should be cheaper for DIS to utilise leverage to reinvest back into the firm and grow Disney+. However I'm conservative in expecting too much out of Disney+ as NFLX will be releasing ad supported plans by November 2022 but revenue growth should still be strong regardless. I forecast about 7.1% of Y/Y revenue for 2023 and 2024. I would investigate a "market share plus growth" way of thinking of this. Estimate the total market size for streaming, determine Disney's share, estimate growth, estimate Disney's post-growth share. That may help a bit in determining streaming revenue. >For 2025, once interest rates are substantially lowered it should be significantly cheaper for DIS to reinvest back into the firm and ramp up production. This is an assumption that may be very big. This would merit scenario testing. >Taxes are assumed to be at 30% of EBIT throughout my forecast period, this amount may be very high but DIS taxes have always been weird. As seen from here: https://imgur.com/a/BW4428X Investigate the years where taxes were lower and try to determine why that was the case, if you can. >D&A is more stable so I assumed it to be at constant 7% of revenue throughout my forecast period. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume this is supported in historical financials over a medium-to-long term average with little variance (wink wink). >Deferred Taxes is assumed to be at constant 2% of EBIT. Deferred taxes have also always been weird my guess is because DIS changed how they recognized revenue a while ago so there isn't consistency in this. As seen from here: https://imgur.com/a/lRkmQ2a It may not be worthwhile to model this out. Oftentimes a more general model that loses some of the granularity can end up more accurate, because each additional layer of complexity requires more assumptions and, as a result, more potential sources of error. >Change in NWC is assumed to be constant at 1.5% of revenue. There was a trend of about 1%-3% of change in NWC for DIS so I took the middle ground. This seems reasonable, again assuming averages. I would potentially stress-test this a bit given you assume revenue growth is the focus, which may mean more "front-loading" on NWC (e.g.. you increase your inventories ahead of expected increased sales). >CapEx is assumed to be 8% for 2022 and 2023 as DIS ramps up R&D to efficiently run Disney+ but drops back down to 7% in 2024 and 6% in 2025. I would try to tie your D&A assumption to this one. Note that you model net asset growth in 2022-2023, equilibrium in 2024, and net asset loss in 2025. Does this make sense? >WACC and TGR are 8.2% and 3% respectively. Justifications on WACC would be appreciated. TGR of 3% is typically higher than expected (usually this is 2%, as anything above long-run-inflation implies the company you're evaluating eventually becomes the entire economy of the universe. >Overall, my stock price for DIS is $78.68 which seems that current prices are way too expensive to jump in on DIS. You're showing a -6.3% downside. Why does the market appear to disagree with you? That's an important question to answer. Or do we consider -6.3% a tolerable range, within a margin of error? ***Other*** Using Guideline Multiples would also be a good idea to see if they agree with your DCF. Looking at forward P/E estimates can lend a hand in determining where earnings growth is. Same with forward P/S, if you can find these.

ChoppedNSkrewed

Due to inflation benching your body weight is practically nothing, try 3x your BW and try again 

SuperBottit

I heard that BW3 was gone as well. Is it still there?

zero_cool_crash

The hilarious part is that our policies from our neoconservative and neoliberal elites have failed on their own terms. The geopolitical objective of these groups is domination of the Eurasian “world island.” [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\_Geographical\_Pivot\_of\_History](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History) In cornering Russia, we have driven it away from its ancient cultural affinity with Europe (the tsars were European royalty and intermarried.) [https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-Russian-Tzar-and-British-Royals-were-relatives](https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-Russian-Tzar-and-British-Royals-were-relatives) And into alliance with China. Russia and India have a pre-existing allegiance as Russia thwarted UK/US attempts to help Pakistan defeat India by naval force. [https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/when-russia-stunned-us-uk-naval-forces-helped-india-win-1971-war-563248.html](https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/when-russia-stunned-us-uk-naval-forces-helped-india-win-1971-war-563248.html) ​ We are in open “pivot to Asia” in attempts to keep China’s expanding power in check. The funny thing is that we’re the ones responsible for China gaining their current level of power when our elites shipped our industry there to take advantage of their labor arbitrage which is elite polite wording for slave wages. ​ Basically, our warmonger eggheads have driven all three major Asian nations together in alliance by confronting them at the same time and their utter cluelessness and hubris is most clearly revealed in this ham-handed attempt to dragoon India into supporting our sanctions on Russia. [https://youtu.be/TjTVzo7BW-s](https://youtu.be/TjTVzo7BW-s) ​ The manner in which the Americans comported themselves was embarrassing and led to them being accused of being colonialists during the segment. These are “very serious expert people”, one is a member of the CFR. [https://www.cfr.org/expert/charles-kupchan](https://www.cfr.org/expert/charles-kupchan)

Akravyan

[https://prnt.sc/BE2BW\_4I0ah3](https://prnt.sc/BE2BW_4I0ah3) \^\^\^\^\^ Does anyone know what site this is? \^\^\^\^\^ I'm curious about the spread of different price of options and the meaning about it would be helpful if anyone would spare me his time to explain. Also what does Maximum pain mean in options?

JohnLaw1717

Republicans demanding saudi cut oil production to make gas prices higher hadn't taken effect yet. https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-usa-saudi-idAFL2N2BW0RT

VisualMod

This is interesting information. It appears that the Q/V backhaul antennas are actively engaged with BlueWalker3, which implies that BW3 Q/V antennas are deployed and initial calls could happen soon. This is a significant development in the SpaceMobile infrastructure, and it will be interesting to see how this affects existing call phones and smartphones. ^^[**Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse) ^^[BanBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) ^^VoteBot ^^[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/votebot/) ^^[Leaderboard](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/leaderboard/) ^^- ^^[**Keep_VM_Alive**](https://www.patreon.com/visualmod)

SeattleOligarch

Share dilution for an equity raise combine with no form news that BW3 fully functions as intended, only that it unfurled successfully. 1000 shares at about $9. See you in 2025+

Embarrassed-Coffee21

Thank you for your assessments. It is helpful to know differing opinions. I’m a long term investor in ASTS. While it is prudent to discuss equity and regulatory issues, my concern is that the technology risk is real and still persists though BW3 is unfurled and roaming around nicely. Using Schrodinger’s cat analogy, I want to see thousand or so people successfully using SpaceMobile service before the technology is considered ‘nearly completely’ derisked. The recent secondary offer suggests however that good news about the technology is/maybe is already backed into the equation. Just my opinion.

burnerboo

The genuine hope is that after BW3 proves the tech works, the expedited rollout of the rest of the constellation falls directly in line with the goals of the 5G fund. It's definitely a long shot, but if ASTS secures even a fraction of the funds available of the $9B in the 5G fund, that will greatly improve their financial standing, speed up the rollout of the rest of the constellation, and provide a huge morale boost to the ticker. I'll emphasize it's a long shot, but we're hoping that's the direction management is steering towards.

jan_stubber

I guess to start out, his last company was maritime. The nice thing about comms in maritime is you don't have buildings or trees to block your signal. So there will be some differences. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he accounted for them all but so far it's still just on paper. As for him, so far I am unimpressed based on conference calls. I may have already said this but I believed they dodged the question as to when they planned to have the full constellation launched in the last CC. If I remember correctly it was chris quilty of quilty analytics who asked this and he is fairly well respected in the industry. Generally, these types of constellations are planned out in fine detail and while dates may be missed etc, there's at least a general plan in place. So that was a big red flag to me. He also seems to be pretty vague and/or answer a question other than the one that was asked more often than I find reasonable. You can see the lack of knowledge/leadership in just how many times they had to refile FCC paperwork to get BW3 approved. That caused months of delays due to back and forth on fairly standard stuff. Not saying he should be the one doing it but he should have experienced people in place to ensure these types of things dont cause unnecessary delays. Keep in mind, the constellation still needs approvals, and that is the one where there are petitions from Amazon, Hughes, Boeing, etc. So they could lose it all right there because for sure Hughes and Boeing have been down that road before. Finally, as we are seeing with the implosion of twitter, I would not assume someone who is rich knows what they're doing :D

chasecashman

> US government isn't going to spend my tax dollars on something that is at this point a prototype that may or may not work. I'd like to know how you're able to have such a voice in what the US government is going to spend your tax dollars. I'd love to buy some senators and representatives if this thing with BW3 and ASTS works out.

chasecashman

Which parts? BW3 had a lot of blank data until they started unfurling. I can see how it'd be tough for a government to choose between astronomers and connecting people in rural areas where cell towers aren't financially feasible.

jan_stubber

No problem, I think it's just different ways of going about it. Did some digging on BW3, worth a look - [https://twitter.com/coastal8049/status/1591317221393195008](https://twitter.com/coastal8049/status/1591317221393195008) May not be fully deployed either: [https://twitter.com/aang254/status/1592145775903272960](https://twitter.com/aang254/status/1592145775903272960) ​ Ps: they initially sent data home unencrypted \*facepalm\* Just my view of how it went down: Lynk - start small, be agile, and iterate. Every time you hit a milestone/prove your tech you get more and more funding. Scale up with number and size of satellites as needed but the ground work has been put in place such that even if you hit a technical hurdle that you cannot overcome, at least you have a revenue stream from SoS, SMS, or however far they get to fall back on. ASTS - Went all in and saw an opportunity to raise a lot of money quickly from the SPAC boom. They cut corners on testing (only \~2 weeks in thermo environment?) and have moved the goal posts every earnings call. As we are seeing currently, no clue any of this will work.

jan_stubber

They are not contracts, they are handshake agreements. Tech has yet to be proven to work. They only know they can launch and unfurl. They haven't connected to 1000s of phones yet, they haven't survived space unfurled for months on end, they haven't proven 5G speeds, they haven't even launched to 700km where they plan to launch their actual Bluebirds. So, even if BW3 does work, now go prove it works at 700km. It's not "just further away", it makes a difference.

jan_stubber

The technology has not been proven. BW3 has yet to connect to one cell phone, let alone thousands. All it has done is get launched into space by SpaceX (which is a success for SpaceX, not ASTS) and unfurled. Way too early to tell if it will connect or if it can last more than 12mo in the space environment and still work. Plenty of risk still ahead.

jan_stubber

They are not "years" ahead of the competition. Lynk global has already connected to cell phones on Earth, something ASTS has yet to do. ASTS regards: "Wrong they connected to a cell phone." No, they didn't. They BW2 was a "cell phone" that was in space, the literal reverse of what they're trying to do. On paper it might work but they still haven't connected to a cell phone on Earth. ASTS regards: "Lynk and Globalstar are only doing SoS" Again, wrong. They are \*starting\* with SoS text messages. They are borrowing an idea from Agile software development where they do iterative design. As Lynk meets more milestones they get more funding. That's what real investors do. They don't go public with nothing to show and hope retail yolo spacemob will fund their experiment. Given Lynk and Globalstar actually have a constellation launched and have connected to cell phones, I would say THEY are years ahead of ASTS.

links311

Since you care how I verbalized it: I work in satcoms, and I call it whatever the fuck I want as could you for all I care. T Mobile and Starlink will have text capability with HOPES of adding stronger networks in the future. Starlink is already down from their broadband speeds they hoped for by 2023(that’s with using the Starlink kits which REQUIRE A DISH. With the arrays on AST’s satellites and the ground resources planned, you will not need any kit but yes one would undoubtedly still experience elevated latency with peak users but much less of a pronounced issue. AST’s BW3 has a different array than Starlink. I won’t nerd about it but I’m telling you; the details matter here. As I said, this is not a guaranteed thing in my opinion. Any company can dream of a wonderful tech goal and it fall flat due to all the typical reasons shit fails. The cost savings by the way. Is part of why this is so good. As I said: the details. I’m sorry man but you’re just straight wrong about the tech.

WeissMISFIT

I remember reading one of their filings a long time ago and apparently there is an alternative mission for BW3 so it might generate income for them.

WeissMISFIT

NASA Proved the Q/V Backhaul antennas worked. BW1 and BW2 proved that Microns/Fronthaul antennas worked. BW3 thus far has proved unfolding works. The individual components of the technology work. What's unknown is how well they work together and whether they work at scale.

Longjumping_Box_5660

It's not a scam but it might collapse. Simply put, they are a new company, pre revenue and are trying something that has yet to work for anyone else (Starlink doesn't work the same way). They might collapse so it can possibly go zero, however, that's how things generally work. You do your DD and make a decision which at the very end is just an educated gamble. Now let me be clear, there might and most probably are people who use the big events to pump and dump. Honestly this means very little on the long run. You don't have to go in now (or technically at all), you can simply way for the testing of BW3 to commence and show results, see if this has any teeth to it or if its just another failed experiment.

froginbog

They did test their ability to make a connection with BW1 (phone in space, satellite on the ground)

Grandmaparty

1) What do you mean "More funding will become available?" This is wishful thinking. Realistically they're going to dilute. There has been talk about the 5G fund for rural america but it's complete and utter speculation. 1.5) 5 more bluewalker types is not the amount needed for the first phase. First phase they needed 20 full-sized Bluebird satellites. Not 5 minis. 2) This is diametrically opposed to one. Either they have enough money to keep going or they don't. And if they delay, they don't. And you're absolutely wrong about BW3's initial launch date. That was their initial launch with SpaceX. They had a previous launch provider slated for Q4 Fall 2021. 3) Given the fact that they said they are going to dilute and they actively are diluting, it behooves them to try to shore up the stock price. ​ I've been here for 18 months. I want some return on my investment.

froginbog

Yeah but the point isn’t that it’s high risk the point has to be that it’s a bad risk/return. OP hasn’t done anything to support that argument. And since unfurling of the prototype BW3 satellite, the risks seem to be getting lower and lower. As someone who is heavily invested in ASTS I would really like to see bear counter arguments.

1ess_than_zer0

1) They have enough money for 5 more bluewalker type satellites and to fund operations through next year. More funding will become available if they can prove the tech works at the speeds/capacity they claim. This will be known in 4 months (8 months ahead of cash burn). If tests aren’t good the company will go to zero. If they’re great it will open up a lot more funding whether it’s the Rural 5G funds or VCs or both. 2) Delays have always been expected with space. BW3’s original launch was slated for March 2022 so this would be a 6 month slip not a 12 month. I’m personally glad they waited because everything went without a hitch when it was launched and unfurled. Mission accomplished. https://investors.ast-science.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ast-spacemobile-provides-update-bluewalker-3-launch-timing/ 3) “Reclusive management” is just your opinion of their management style. They obviously are keeping a lot close to the chest and try not to speculate too much. I don’t see this as a bad thing but that’s just my opinion. Once everything is tested and works to their liking I’m sure they’ll start shouting from the mountaintops. Last note: You need to be a little patient - these things take time, especially if you want them to go right the first time. If one thing goes wrong it could potentially be the end of the company.

macallan_man-18

Babcock International Group PLC (BW3.F) Frankfurt - Frankfurt Delayed Price. Currency in EUR 3.1000-0.0200 (-0.64%) At close: 10:00PM CET BlueWalker 3 test satellite AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD 11/16/22 CLOSE FOR ASTS 6.70-0.81 (-10.73%) At close: 04:00PM EST 6.75 +0.05 (+0.75%) After hours: 07:53PM EST

giorgio79

Wtf is BW3?

NxlaTheDragonSlayer

It certainly isn’t a meme stock. It’s a 50/50 gamble. Even major firms such as B. Riley and Barclays referred to the case for this stock as “binary” in their q3 updates released yesterday. The company is highly ambitious and will either succeed marvelously, or daily greatly. That being said, the unfurling was a baby step, and only pumped because of the attention the ticker was picking up combined with the high shirt interest. The price action will not pick up significant steam until major funding/subsidization is announced, along with progress updates on BW3

NES_WallStreetKid

What’s BW3?

PeeLoosy

Rakuten is going to play YouTube videos over BW3.

F1CKEN

You need to reframe your understanding of their offering. 1) Their shelf allows them to pick when/if to utilize the offering i.e. price. 2) They also have funds from warrants to sell additional shares if it trades at >$18 for 20/30 trading days. 3) Additional avenues have been opened from corporate debt i.e. they could go to ATT for funding as a debt offering without shareholder dilution. 4) FCC funding is still at large. Showing the operation of BW3 could result in non dilutive government funding for building out the network. 5) MNOs/AMT will want a piece of the action if this "first call" is as disruptive as it could be.

aka0007

Maybe actually pay attention to the steps and failure points to success. Unfurling the satellite is probably from the easier challenges they need to overcome. Literally some motors running resulting in the panels opening. Just a very slow process but something that is not a very big deal and not a technology that really needs to be proven. What they need to prove: Can the satellite be stabilized properly allowing it to have optimal communication with earth. If your satellite is vibrating it will make it very difficult to pick up those faint signals. You have to understand the commercial version of the satellite is going to be even bigger and any issues at the BW3 level will completely prevent further development until it can be solved, which may require a fundamental redesign of their satellites and excessive additional cost. Can your satellites provide the service at the speed your want to enough users at once to create a commercially viable business or will you be relegated to basic phone calls and SMS and be competing with SpaceX when they start launching their V2 satellites. These are serious challenges to overcome. Unfurling was not one. So as expected the price got a boost from wsb type investors getting excited about news they don't fully comprehend only to have more seasoned investors taking this opportunity to get out before some analyst asks tough questions on the earning call.

Thereisnopurpose12

Wtf is BW3

FootoftheBeast

Over 36% of the float is short. This is an attempt from large short position holders to flip sentiment before the call and allow them to cover at lower prices. It's only costing them \~800,000 shares (less than 2% of float) to TRY to crush sentiment before the call and allow them to cover so it makes sense they would try this on the single biggest day ever for this company. Peoples, do NOT be deceived! This is a huge step forward in showcasing the viability of the technology and a fully functional BW3 will be the greatest achievement so far in Satellite communications even when you include the Starlink network. At a functional test call with BW3 you can bet your bottom dollar that a bunch of trench funding is going to coming in from all angles, public and private. We are just getting started 👍

Trying2RetireASAP

What is BW3 been Googling and only coming up with Buffalo wild wings.