BYD

gnocchicotti

In the 3 years since last peak, Elon pissed off about 90% of Tesla customers by being Elon, and he paid $250M to help a guy get elected who pushes a narrative that climate change is fake and Tesla's only market doesn't need subsidies. And in CA, the state where EVs make the most sense, they are proposing subsidies only for newer entrants to EV market and not Tesla. Oh and BYD overtook Tesla in global sales. The only realistic bull case I see is Elon fires everyone in NHTSA etc and force them to allow Tesla FSD everywhere even though it doesn't work. Even if FSD gets permitted and is the best in the industry (doubt), if there is no climate policy or subsidies then most people will want a gas or hybrid car with Tesla FSD which doesn't exist and won't exist. I don't get how the company has any fundamental value and that's exactly why I won't short it.

SLXDK

I ChatGPT’d that for you sir: “Please describe Tesla to an amateur investor, who experienced the stock price go up 60+ points during the past week, who wants to get in on the action, but is petrified at doing so” Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a major player in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, known for producing innovative EVs, energy products like solar panels, and battery storage solutions. It’s also led by Elon Musk, a high-profile CEO who often drives market sentiment with his bold vision and unpredictable statements. Tesla is more than just a car company—it’s positioned as a technology and energy company, which has helped maintain a strong growth narrative. Understanding the Recent Stock Surge The stock price surge of over 60 points in a week may be due to a combination of factors: 1. Positive News or Announcements: Tesla’s stock is highly reactive to news—new product releases, favorable EV policies, or expansion into new markets often drive significant upward momentum. 2. Short Squeezes: Tesla is known for attracting short-sellers, and sudden price surges can sometimes be fueled by shorts covering their positions. 3. Investor Sentiment: The market’s excitement about EVs and clean energy can cause Tesla’s stock to rally disproportionately. 4. Market Rotation: If the overall market sentiment shifts toward growth stocks or technology, Tesla often benefits due to its strong brand in those categories. Should You Buy Now? It’s important to approach this carefully, especially since you’re feeling both excited and petrified. Tesla is a high-volatility stock, meaning its price can swing significantly up or down in short periods. Here’s what to consider: 1. Current Valuation: Tesla’s valuation often seems disconnected from traditional metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. The market prices it as a growth stock, reflecting expectations of substantial future success. This means it can be overvalued based on fundamentals. 2. Timing and Emotions: Buying into a stock just because it has gone up sharply is often risky. This kind of fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) can lead to poor decision-making. Stocks can pull back just as quickly as they rise. 3. Your Risk Tolerance: Can you handle potential volatility? Tesla’s stock can easily drop 10–15% in a day if market sentiment changes or bad news emerges. If this kind of fluctuation would stress you out, it might not be the right time to jump in. What to Do Next • Research the Fundamentals: Understand Tesla’s revenue growth, profitability trends, and market potential in the EV and renewable energy sectors. • Consider Dollar-Cost Averaging: If you’re determined to invest, you could spread your purchase over weeks or months. This reduces the risk of buying at a peak. • Define Your Goals: Are you investing for the short term or long term? Tesla is a long-term growth story but can be challenging for short-term trading due to its volatility. • Evaluate the Competition: Tesla operates in a rapidly growing EV market with strong competitors like Rivian, Lucid, traditional automakers like Ford and GM, and global brands like BYD and Volkswagen. Final Advice Tesla can be an exciting investment, but its volatility requires a steady hand. Don’t let recent price action cloud your judgment. Instead, take the time to assess whether Tesla aligns with your risk tolerance and long-term goals. If you’re still unsure, consider starting with a small position to ease into it and see how the volatility feels for you. So.. YW i guess?

tim3k

First half of 2024 numbers: || || |Ranking| BrandsChinese | VolumeSales | |1|BYD|1.607 million| |2|Chery|1.057 million| |3|Geely|955,000| |4|Changan|809,000| |5|FAW-Volkswagen|754,000| |6|SAIC-Volkswagen|512,000| |7|Great Wall Motor|467,400| |8|Tesla China|426,000| |9|GAC-Toyota|336,000| |10|SAIC|331,500| |11|SAIC-GM-Wuling|331,000| |12|Dongfeng-Nissan|328,000| |13|Brilliance Auto|316,000| |14|FAW-Toyota|308,000| |15|Beijing Benz|278,000| |16|Dongfeng-Honda|236,000| |17|SAIC-GM|225,000| |18|GAC-Honda|207,000| |19|FAW Hongqi|201,000| |20|Li Auto|188,000 |

tim3k

First half of 2024 numbers: || || |**Ranking**|**Chinese** **Brands**|**Sales** **Volume**| |1|BYD|1.607 million| |2|Chery|1.057 million| |3|Geely|955,000| |4|Changan|809,000| |5|FAW-Volkswagen|754,000| |6|SAIC-Volkswagen|512,000| |7|Great Wall Motor|467,400| |8|Tesla China|426,000| |9|GAC-Toyota|336,000| |10|SAIC|331,500| |11|SAIC-GM-Wuling|331,000| |12|Dongfeng-Nissan|328,000| |13|Brilliance Auto|316,000| |14|FAW-Toyota|308,000| |15|Beijing Benz|278,000| |16|Dongfeng-Honda|236,000| |17|SAIC-GM|225,000| |18|GAC-Honda|207,000| |19|FAW Hongqi|201,000| |20|Li Auto|188,000|

tim3k

First half of 2024 numbers: || || |**Ranking**|**Chinese** **Brands**|**Sales** **Volume**| |1|BYD|1.607 million| |2|Chery|1.057 million| |3|Geely|955,000| |4|Changan|809,000| |5|FAW-Volkswagen|754,000| |6|SAIC-Volkswagen|512,000| |7|Great Wall Motor|467,400| |8|Tesla China|426,000| |9|GAC-Toyota|336,000| |10|SAIC|331,500| |11|SAIC-GM-Wuling|331,000| |12|Dongfeng-Nissan|328,000| |13|Brilliance Auto|316,000| |14|FAW-Toyota|308,000| |15|Beijing Benz|278,000| |16|Dongfeng-Honda|236,000| |17|SAIC-GM|225,000| |18|GAC-Honda|207,000| |19|FAW Hongqi|201,000| |20|Li Auto|188,000|

dvdmovie1

I'd sell the cruise stuff into strength. Yes, you've gotten varying degrees of bounce off the covid bottom but long-term it's not a great business and it's highly cyclical. "ARKG: 3.5K" No. Just no. "NIO: 33K" No. Too much in EVs and if you feel you need to own Chinese EV names for some reason I'd rather BYD.

beginner75

The US could blacklist BYD in retaliation ban it from using any US technology and ban any company that sells to BYD.

beginner75

That’s right, the US could ban chips to China and this would cripple BYD, Tesla’s biggest competitor.

Foreign-Repeat9813

BYD is crushing Tesla in China and soon the world. Xi Jinping is extremely nationalistic and views U.S. companies as merely opportunities for raiding intellectual property and know-how. The communists are pushing homegrown EVs (BYD) and phones (Huawei). In my opinion, for too long U.S. executives have been arrogant and believed that the CCP would be content with their citizens performing low paying manufacturing jobs in poor working conditions. The communists had other ideas all along. Further, the CCP doesn't need the massive military their building to wave the welcome flag.

Consistent-Sport-284

I can see this if they apply the tariff on BYD on the existing EV tariff

Lopsided_Nobody1393

The real problem is their labor costs are insanely low. Tesla will never be able to compete with that (short of making ca s in China themselves like they currently do). that still doesn't allow them to bring them to the states to sell them without letting the LI and BYD cars also come. you can forget about legacy automakers when it comes to EV. they first need to develop (or more likely buyout) the tech, then they need to compete with China on labor.

sinisark

Where does it say BYD gets paid like that? A subsidy is a subsidy and the US pays orders of magnitude more in subsidies to its car companies than China pays to its own. Look at some facts and stop making crap up and spreading misinformation. https://preview.redd.it/3ncv0fr4nx5e1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=33d32f40500db2e55bf24754ee98389e699e8fd4 [https://archive.ph/2024.11.03-231013/https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-03/china-can-t-cut-electric-vehicle-subsidies-it-isn-t-paying](https://archive.ph/2024.11.03-231013/https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-03/china-can-t-cut-electric-vehicle-subsidies-it-isn-t-paying)

Smart_Mention_3306

The Chinese claim to be a level above us. I think they referred to a Cadillac EV as a gasoline car with an electric engine. The only reason I don't drive BYD is because they don't sell them here (that and my license got suspended some time ago).

Smart_Mention_3306

I sold my $TSLA and bought $BYD the day Elon declared his political support for Trump. I don't regret (yet) my decision :-)

YarisAutonomics_9

Why buy a BYD or change anything in the US when we know that the ChiCom manufacturing sector will be cinders (that get extinguished by an inland Tsunami from the Three Gorges Dam). Wait until the war is over and let's see what makes sense then.

glenhh

Tesla is selling more cars in China 2024 than 2023. Who is hit most are German manufacturers. It was obvious at least 9 years ago when my dumb ass realized it and bought BYD and Tesla shares. (up 2200%)

Fearless-Gate6303

Betting against Tesla isn’t insane—it’s a calculated move based on market realities. Musk brands himself as a free speech absolutist, but his actions after buying Twitter (now X) paint a different picture. He has actively silenced critics and dissenting voices: • Banning Journalists: Musk suspended several prominent journalists, including from outlets like CNN and The New York Times, for covering his private jet tracking, even when the information was public. • ElonJet Incident: He banned the @ElonJet account, which tracked his private jet using public data, despite initially claiming he wouldn’t interfere with it. • Twitter Account Suppressions: Multiple users have reported account throttling or bans for posting critiques of Musk or Tesla, suggesting a clear pattern of censorship. • Employee Firings: Musk reportedly fired Twitter employees who publicly criticized him or his decisions on the platform itself. If Musk were truly committed to free speech, he wouldn’t take such heavy-handed actions to silence his critics or dissenters. This hypocrisy undermines the argument that Musk is some kind of defender of free expression. Claiming Reddit is a “communist-dominated platform” or has “anti-capitalist motivations” is baseless. Reddit is a diverse platform with thousands of subreddits catering to all kinds of ideologies, including capitalist, pro-business, and pro-Musk communities. The critiques of Musk and Tesla come from legitimate concerns about overvaluation, broken promises, and Musk’s erratic behavior—not some grand anti-capitalist agenda. The argument that shorting Tesla is inherently foolish ignores the current macroeconomic and competitive landscape: • Macroeconomic Challenges: High interest rates, quantitative tightening, and a slowing economy make speculative growth stocks like Tesla more vulnerable. • Intensifying Competition: Tesla’s market share is under attack from competitors like BYD, Volkswagen, Ford, and others. Betting against Tesla now could be a rational play given its valuation remains far above industry norms. • Hype Fatigue: Tesla’s valuation relies heavily on the narrative of endless growth and technological superiority. If that narrative falters—e.g., delays in FSD, Cybertruck failures, or missed targets—the stock could decline sharply. While shorting Tesla has historically been risky, the current environment creates legitimate opportunities for bears, especially as its fundamentals come under pressure. Tesla has repeatedly failed to meet its ambitious targets: • FSD Delays: Full Self-Driving has been promised for years but remains in beta, far from achieving true autonomy. • Cybertruck Delays: Years of delays have eroded confidence in Tesla’s ability to deliver on time. • Competition in EV Market: Other automakers have rapidly closed the gap in EV technology and production capacity, which could impact Tesla’s growth trajectory. These broken promises are more than just minor hiccups—they risk eroding investor confidence and exposing Tesla to significant downside risks.

Fearless-Gate6303

SpaceX’s government contracts don’t directly benefit Tesla. SpaceX operates in aerospace and defense, while Tesla is in automotive and energy. Success in one doesn’t guarantee insulation for the other, especially when Tesla faces mounting competition in the EV market and macroeconomic headwinds that no government favor can erase. Even if Elon Musk aligns Tesla and SpaceX with government interests, his influence isn’t unchecked. Regulatory bodies like the SEC, NHTSA, and Congress don’t simply roll over because someone has contracts or political connections. Policies, particularly those involving federal jobs or contractor transitions, are shaped by competing interests, public opinion, and legal frameworks—not by a single individual. The suggestion that Musk can single-handedly restructure federal jobs is unrealistic and ignores institutional checks and balances. Elon Musk doesn’t have “immunity” just because he supports certain politicians. History shows that even the wealthiest and most powerful individuals face scrutiny. Musk has already dealt with multiple investigations (e.g., the SEC and DOJ), and his political connections won’t shield Tesla from market realities, regulatory enforcement, or public backlash. His wealth and influence might buy him attention, but they don’t grant him carte blanche for four years. There’s no concrete evidence that DOGE—or any similar initiative—will actually materialize in a way that restructures federal jobs or makes sweeping changes benefiting Musk. The idea of an entire department being created, funded, and empowered to dismantle federal structures or turn jobs into private contracts is highly unlikely. Government bureaucracy isn’t that simple, and such a move would face enormous resistance from Congress, unions, and the public. Even under an administration sympathetic to Musk, DOGE’s authority would be limited by Congress, courts, and oversight bodies. Federal agencies and contractors must adhere to strict procurement rules and compliance standards, which prevents favoritism or cronyism on the scale suggested. Even if Musk benefits indirectly from government contracts or influence, Tesla’s success still depends on macroeconomic factors like interest rates, demand for EVs, competition, and technological execution. Government backing won’t shield Tesla from competition (e.g., BYD, legacy automakers) or from its valuation being heavily tied to speculative growth narratives. If Musk were to push for something like DOGE that blatantly favors him or privatizes federal jobs, it would generate massive public backlash. His brand relies on being perceived as an innovator, not as someone using government influence to manipulate markets or enrich himself. Aligning too closely with any administration risks alienating Tesla’s customer base and damaging its global reputation. The idea that DOGE would grant Elon Musk unchecked power or immunity is rooted in speculation and misunderstanding of how government functions. Musk and Tesla are still subject to market forces, regulatory oversight, and public accountability. DOGE, if it ever becomes real, is unlikely to have the transformative power suggested, and Tesla’s long-term success depends on fundamentals, not speculative narratives about political influence.

NoResult486

BYD sales numbers can’t be trusted. We don’t know how many of those sales were from the Chinese government propping up industry. They play games with high profile numbers like this.

pillkrush

no because BYD is the one leading the market

Sori-tho

They also subsidize BYD lol not a good comparison

grizzly_teddy

It's dependent on tariffs - and even with tariffs, BYD might decide to manufacture cars in the US and sell them here (without tariffs). They will be able to compete on price with everyone except maybe Tesla.

grizzly_teddy

> That's incorrect. Tesla's margins have been going down since Q1 2022: https://www.statista.com/chart/29774/tesla-gross-margin-and-deliveries/ they say > then below 15 percent in the second quarter of 2024 (14.6 percent). This is the lowest profit margin recorded by the company in over five years. Went up in Q3. Go look it up. > Incorrect as well. Companies like Porsche and Ferrari have higher margins You really comparing Tesla to FERRARI? A high margin, extremely low quantity, supercar company? > and now Toyota, Kia and several other car makers are almost the same profit margin as Tesla. Patently false. They are all around the 6-11% range. Toyota was 10.1% in Q2 for example. 50% lower margin than Tesla, and these margins are about to drop for Toyota as well. > as they don't have a lot of movement downward when it comes to cost unless like you said, they can radically redesign and make a cheaper (for the company) car that can continue to have high margin. You mean like literally what they are doing? Unboxed process? They increased their margins last quarter literally because they lowered their costs. Battery prices still falling. Tesla bots deployed in factories next year. > As other players like BYD come in though, with cars at 1/3 the cost And at literally zero margin. There is not a BYD vehicle that is 1/3rd the cost that is the same or close to a model 3. A tiny 2 door vehicle with a small range? Sure. But also keep in mind BYD is zero to no margin on their EVs. Do remember Tesla sells a shitload of Teslas in China, despite BYD selling their near zero margin government subsidized EVs. > That's likely why Tesla keeps saying now that they aren't a car company but a 'software' company Because they aren't? Their energy division conservatively at this point is worth more than all of Ford. > Saying they will have half the parts (and lower costs), does not mean they actually will though Uh huh because Tesla never removed hundreds of parts on their cars before when they said they would, that's like, unprecedented? Lol. Pretty much everything you said is unbelievable stupid or flat out wrong. I like how your one source doesn't even prove your point.

bruce_kwillis

> Yes. Hence their lowers cost 'model 2' that will be cheaper than the model 3. And for example the robotaxi has about half the parts of a model 3, smaller battery, less labor, smaller factory footprint. Tesla is redoing how they assemble cars (google "unboxed process") which will lead to a big decrease in cost. Saying they will have half the parts (and lower costs), does not mean they actually will though, until those cars are in production and on the street. A lot was said about how the Cybertruck was going to be inexpensive as well, turns out that was a big fat lie. > Their margins literally went up last quarter, their margin is still double that of the ICE industry. That's incorrect. Tesla's margins have been going down since Q1 2022: https://www.statista.com/chart/29774/tesla-gross-margin-and-deliveries/ > Their margins literally went up last quarter, their margin is still double that of the ICE industry. Incorrect as well. Companies like Porsche and Ferrari have higher margins, and now Toyota, Kia and several other car makers are almost the same profit margin as Tesla. That's likely why Tesla keeps saying now that they aren't a car company but a 'software' company, as they quickly having to find ways to differentiate themselves in the market and keep 'hype up' as they don't have a lot of movement downward when it comes to cost unless like you said, they can radically redesign and make a cheaper (for the company) car that can continue to have high margin. As other players like BYD come in though, with cars at 1/3 the cost, it won't matter as they don't have to lower costs, they just need to keep being subsidized by eh government. Conspiracy theory, that may be the same thing Elon wants by getting cozy with the US government, to first keep Byd banned from the US (BYD is working on producing cars in Mexico for the US audience), and to end electric subsidies so cars are more expensive, but to Tesla's benefit.

Accurate_Data3791

There cars BYD sold are not just EVs they have other type of cars and no innovation is not the only reason BYD can afford to sell their cars that cheap

Puzzled-Weekend595

The tech matters more, and Tesla is already a battery maker. They can likely just get a production license and pay a percentage, while every other automaker in the US is locked from importing CATL. Tesla's research wing for batteries is far smaller than either CATL and BYD, but they already have facilities to roll out new batteries. Elon Musk supporting auto tariffs is pretty manipulative.

Hornpub

I live in Norway bruh, in Oslo, the capital.  Norway is the second largest marked for Tesla after the US, despite only having 5 million inhabitants.  Norwegians love electric cars, especially cheap chinese ones. The marked is absolutely flooded with them. Brands like BYD, Hongqi, Xpeng etc.  With Brands like Volvo and Mercedes moving away from their "all electric by 2030 goals" I think that China is late to the electric car gold rush. This is a classic error, thinking that a steep rise in something proven by "muh" data means that the curve will keep rising at that rate ad nauseum.  Data isn't the word of god, and plenty of data is wrong lol, presenting "data" as some sort of be all end all prediction for the future is regarded. The data "proved" that millions would perish due to Covid, but that didn't happen lol.  Off all subreddits I would have thought someone on here would understand that a sharp rise in sales isn't "data" proving future success... "WHAT DO YOU MEAN THE MONEY IS GONE, THE STOCK WAS UP 10% DAILY WHEN I BOUGHT IT, THE DATA PROVED THAT IT WAS GOING TO SUCCESSFUL"

grizzly_teddy

> Is there room to get prices lower? Yes. Hence their lowers cost 'model 2' that will be cheaper than the model 3. And for example the robotaxi has about **half** the parts of a model 3, smaller battery, less labor, smaller factory footprint. Tesla is redoing how they assemble cars (google "unboxed process") which will lead to a big decrease in cost. > Tesla is rapidly approaching as low as they can go Their margins literally went up last quarter, their margin is still double that of the ICE industry. > the real competition is someone like BYD with the government subsidizing the cars Despite that, BYD likely makes almost nothing on EVs. Most if not all their profit comes from Hybrids.

Puzzled-Weekend595

EVs are primarily a battery business, and Tesla has deals with both CATL and BYD, who are locked indirectly in a price war. More supply options + benefitting from R&D directly and indirectly. Tesla can easily just turn around and use Chinese battery and electronics tech to dominate US cars, while Chinese brands are locked out.

TheRealJakeMalloy

Can you even get BYD here in the US even with a 100% tariff?

hivemind_disruptor

In Brazil you'll see Uber drivers on BYD's, and electric Renaults. The cheapest electric is cheaper than a mid range gas car. Buildings, malls, all of it has electric charging. At the same time I have never seen a Tesla outside a computer or smartphone screen. Ford closed it's last factory in Brazil because it can't compete with other companies producing here. After absolutely dominating the car industry in Brazil with GMs, Fords, I can barely see an US car anymore. In fact, it think the few US made stuff that I see are some hard to find components that can't be made locally due to demand.

bruce_kwillis

Is there room to get prices lower? It seems Tesla is rapidly approaching as low as they can go and all other US manufacturers are either losing money on EVs or scrapping bottom of the barrel. Even Rivian with their next generation isn’t going to get low enough to get as much interest or sales as Tesla has, so it seems the real competition is someone like BYD with the government subsidizing the cars massively and destroying the competition. Hell even with all the discounts Ford basically has to give away the F-150 Lightning and at $40k with current discounts it has little value to most who would buy a truck.

Siren_NL

Yeah and BYD has an 85 billion dollar hole they need to dig out of.

dragoon7201

do you hear yourself? if you don't have data to backup your claim, then the facts don't fit YOUR narrative, YOU are coping. I'm long BYD so I am interested in hearing why my bullish thesis might be wrong. But all you got is "I guess only time will tell". LMAO why bother even saying anything.

Exact_Mastodon_7803

The Chinese auto industry overnight success has been 25 years in the making… not least of which through ~~stolen~~ shared technology and massive government subsidies. Now the real challenge begins. Even BYD is operating on razor-thin margins. Almost everyone else is still in the red.

EventAccomplished976

Good thing is tesla is already producing in china and exporting from there to most of the world… actually fun fact, after BYD tesla got the second most support from the Chinese government of all the EV companies having factories there!

cvandyke01

Having ridden in a BYD and a NIO, these cars are quality and innovative. The NIO suv would be a huge winner in the US

AcidUrine

One of the main reason's Tesla does so well in US is because there are massive tariffs on Chinese EVs in US (EU also considering the same). Biden just signed a tariff of 100% on Chinese EVs - absolutely absurd. Go to any other county globally and BYDs are everywhere. People can buy decent $30k EVs outside of US that people in the US have to pay 60K for. Rather than looking internally and thinking 'what can we do to compete', the US just stamps tariffs on things. 'They're the problem not us'. They are completely losing the race to affordable EVs and can only control the US market. Tesla have sold 1.3m EVs in 2024. BYD have sold 3.7m. Not to mention Tesla are made in China too...

will_macomber

Their cars are high quality and 20% the cost of American cars. BYD is so popular that American had to levy a 100% tax on them and all other Chinese EVs. I was going to buy their Rolls Royce SUV copy because it was 30k and had great reviews out of Europe, and a 600 mile range.

Leuris_Khan

Here in Brazil they sent hundreds of thousands of cars that they themselves bought, BYD, it is counted as an import, but the cars remain in the yards near the ports because nobody wants these cars, people continue to buy their old combustion cars from Toyota, Honda, FIAT, Hyundai, etc. - there is something very wrong.

anonymous9828

Tesla's made a bunch of missteps incl. Cybertruck and that leaves an opening for BYD and other cheaper rivals to come in

TessierHackworth

It’s amazing how everyone talks about govt subsidies etc, I think it’s a simpler problem of legacy vs new and who leads each. The classic US auto industry leadership has been incompetent about innovation for the last two decades. All three outsourced most of their software and systems to other suppliers in the chase for efficiency without innovation and relied on marketing + financing to keep volumes up. Tesla (leave aside Musk and his policies) was the only one which actually spent time investing into software and systems that internally drove efficiency. BYD took this even further. While you can argue about who is funding more etc, the fundamental problem was a legacy leading to rot issue. Till today, none of the other automakers are able to do this - the experience still sucks on their latest EVs. Everything else can be fixed - but we have many decades of b-school manifested “leadership” that just cannot take risks. Even our tech industry is getting there …

allahakbau

Sales is not mediocre, it’s supply chain limited since BYD is supplying the low end battery and is stuck there. 

iampatmanbeyond

It's not just the fact it's cheaper to build. The companies in China are in very heated competition for the home market which is very health. The problem everyone else is having is that they expanded the fight outside of China. So before they were making really good profit outside of China which offset their war at home, but then the recession began and Xi wants people working. Again that's perfectly reasonable until you get to the automotive sector who's just using the stimulus to add gas to the price war. If it was just BYD coming in hot like the next Toyota it would be OK. This isn't that this is more like when China destroyed the iron industry in the rest of the world by dumping excess production into the global market

SlayBoredom

no it doesn't apply to hongkong, that regarded argument always comes from americans, that only seem to be able to buy from local exchanges. I own BYD, I own BABA, not some cayman-island-turtle, just straight up stocks. Also Tencent and luckin Coffee.

Appropriate_Ant_4629

> a 50$ increase in 2 days this last week was not easy to see coming lol He has a number of projects in the pipeline that could trigger various increases. * His informal government positions -- which may influence regulation of the auto industry (increased tariffs on competitors; increased incentives for his projects). * His "unboxed" manufacturing process - if that works (["slash costs in half" to quote Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/tesla-s-tsla-new-unboxed-manufacturing-process-aims-to-cut-costs-50)) it's huge. And this project seems likely to work. * FSD - Even if it only kinda works, and is only deployed on specific routes for Tesla Semis, it's meaningful. And if he can ever bring it to market at scale, before [others that seem to be ahead](https://np.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1bdqb2m/chinas_best_selfdriving_car_platforms_tested_and/) .... well... that's too speculative and dreaming about that probably counts as more gambling. * Optimus - Sure, the walking humanoid is totally a PR stunt and technology exercise and maybe patent farm that won't pay off for a decade --- but if he even gets 1 optimus arm and 1 optimus eyeball working on his assembly line this year, it could reduce costs. * His cheap car - Well, BYD's $10k car's already here, so I think he missed that boat (unless both Unboxed and Optimius exceed expectations and he can get in that price range too) It's certainly not a guaranteed sure thing like VT or VTI. But it's kinda like a pharm company with an interesting pipeline -- no guarantees, but multiple projects that could make the stock jump ... making it dangerous to short.

WendysDumpsterOffice

The BYD seal looks kind of dated. It's a 2025 car that looks like a 2013 model.

Terrapins1990

Replace tesla with BYD

ginosesto100

BYD has a plant in socal for busses....

DazingF1

Honestly? Nope, Tesla is still way ahead in terms of value for range and comfort. I've been in a lot of Chinese EV's, I even "owned" a BYD Seal (company lease), and the model 3 is still the best bang for the buck by a long shot. A 75kwh battery for €40k? Or get a second hand one with 50k miles, and still a 4 year warranty, for €25k. If you want an EV and have €20-40k to spend than nothing beats the model 3.

Several-Sea3838

You can't get a 10k Chibese EV 😂 Gasoline cars are cheaper than EVs on average. A BYD Dolphin costs $46k in my country and within 1-2 years the range on that car during winter is like 200-250km. Meanwhile, a Skoda Fabia costs $25k and has a range of 600km all year and even after 12 years

fanchameng

Nah, in terms of relations with the CCP, BYD, Huawei, and Geely are the top players, and NIO has never been among them.

MechanicalDan1

Sort of. US couldn't compete with cheap Japanese cars in the 70s. BYD Seagull vs Chevy Bolt. Chevy labor costs for management, engineers, consultants, QHSE, administration and then union labor for assembly are just higher than in China. We are 1st world country. Those GM/Chevy labor costs are twice BYD labor costs. It's not a rigged China, they just have cheaper labor, which is why US sent manufacturing to China for decades. US created this problem. It happened before with Japanese auto industry. Then the US allowed Japanese auto manufacturers to set up manufacturing factories in US with US labor costs. . Now Toyota builds big ass Tundras in Texas and Texans don't care about Japs anymore. BYD in Texas in 2040? Other than the battery costs, EVs have less parts and are cheaper to manufacture. Battery costs are falling fast, and then cheaper cost wins consumers.

EatTacosGetMoney

I'll still take BYD over any other electric car

notgaynotbear

You can't buy BYD stocks.

enrycochet

buy BYD?

DevelopmentOk3627

The EU just reconfirmed the ban on sales of ICE cars from 2035. While Mercedes won't compete with cheap Chinese EVs, it will compete with the more expensive ones like BYD.

DevelopmentOk3627

The EU just reconfirmed the ban on sales of ICE cars from 2035. While Mercedes won't compete with cheap Chinese EVs, it will compete with the more expensive ones like BYD.

dorkstafarian

Nah, I googled Optimus Prime and it totally already exists bro. Apparently it's a truck that can Transform into a humanoid robot when you're not driving it. Sadly, there's already competition known as "decepticons" — probably from BYD . </S>

elpresidentedeljunta

Long term Nat West, MPS, Morgan Stanley, BYD, Baidu, Elbit, McDonalds, Luckin Coffee, VW, ASML, TSMC. That is with prospect beyond 2025. If I had to invest now, I´d likely look at more Camtek. But I am a n00b. So it may be better not to copy my homework... ;)

Onnimation

BYD cars are better in every aspect than a Tesla. I've test drove both multiple times. They can drive much longer on a full charge as well and it's more luxurious/techie + can't beat the price.

DrexlSpiveySR

BYD has exceeded Tesla in every way.

Fearless-Gate6303

Tesla having a monopoly is an unrealistic fantasy. The EV market is already hyper-competitive, with BYD, Volkswagen, and others scaling faster than Tesla globally. Tariffs might hurt foreign competitors, but they won’t erase them, especially as many are already localizing production in the U.S. (e.g., Hyundai, Toyota). As for demand and margins, Tesla’s gross margin has already dropped to 18.25%—and that’s with price cuts to stimulate demand. Tariffs won’t magically solve slowing sales or rising competition. Markets can price in speculation, but fundamentals eventually win, and Tesla’s reliance on cheap manufacturing, eroding tech leadership, and shrinking dominance in autonomy tell a much harsher story.

miata_only

$TSLA will be at interstellar💫 levels by the end of next week. Melon🍉 is playing his 420 dimensional chess♟ and everyone that's bearish is stuck in their plain old X, Y, and Z axes. We're about to see the new Giga DC factory cranking out Cybertrucks faster than a falcon Heavy could launch your mom into geosynchronous orbit🚀🚀. ALSO rumor has it battery day 🔋 in Jan is going to unveil a new LiPo powered dildo (Plaid edition) that charges in 69 seconds AND comes with full self-dildoing and Cheetah mode. PLUS unlike companies in Gyna...cough cough BYD(eez nuts) 🥜...Easy E-Muskrat knows how to run a capitalist business (aka cook the books 👨‍🍳📚).

dorkstafarian

Believing Tesla is not dramatically overhyped isn't regarded, but plain stupid. - 🥭 didn't need Musk's help to win. - It took 4 years for the CyberTruck to develop, and CyberTaxi was only just revealed. - Subsidies going away are NOT good news for years. This will eat into margins. - China numbers disappointed recently. Europe numbers disappointed on the gear. - BYD, Geely and other China competition is catching up fast. - Whatever happens at SpaceX and xAI has no bearing on Tesla. (Really.)

PleasantAnomaly

What's the cartel gotta do with Chinese car makers like BYD making factories in Mexico ?

Katnisshunter

I think if CA finds away to let BYD in through Mexico. Tsla will be toast.

Lost_Percentage_5663

BYD vs Volks, STLA NFLX vs RBLX COST vs AMZN PATH vs PLTR vs Open AI Trump vs Kim Jung Eun Musk vs Altman

Avid_Hiker69

What makes you more bullish on NIO instead of LI or XPEV or BYD?

RonTom24

If you have seen some of the cars Xpeng, BYD and even Xoimi are coming out with and the price they sell for in China it's no wonder Tesla's sales are declining there. Some of the latest Chinese EV models have ludicrous tech and a far better finish than Teslas boring "minimalist" design.

McKoijion

The average price of a new car in America is $48,000. https://www.moneygeek.com/living/driving/average-price-of-a-new-car/ BYD sells $10,000 EVs https://electrek.co/2024/03/22/byds-new-ev-starting-under-10000-stoking-fear-rivals/ American consumers have to more to prop up the wages of union autoworkers in rust belt swing states.

Nice-Sundae-8638

I’m shorting Tesla when it gets to 400 and buying BYD at 25 p/e. Tesla Fsd is not worth 10 to 20 times the value of Uber that’s software sells 10bn rides a day. Just gambling for fun and contrary sake.

FunnyShabba

> BEIJING, Dec 3 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla's (TSLA.O), opens new tab's sales of China-made electric vehicles fell 4.3% year-on-year to 78,856 in November, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Tuesday. Deliveries of China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles recorded a 15.5% increase from the previous month. Chinese rival BYD (002594.SZ), opens new tab, with its Dynasty and Ocean lineups of EVs and plug-in hybrids, hit yet another monthly record high with passenger vehicle sales up 67.2% year-on-year to 504,003 units last month.

boomama2112

Typical muskrat fan being disingenuous about musk past. What a brilliant idea to build a one way underground road that needs a person to drive the car with no emergency or fire escape. Or when he wrote himself as a founder on a company he did not find and instead invested. Using ideas from NASA and passing it off as his own innovative ideas. Mars. next year for sure. Lies about their crash data. State subsidies up the ass just to move states when he didn’t get his way. To then use the federal government to stop said subsidies to other companies. Gave away his only market differentiator to competitors (BYD) just to have (and then lose) a foothold in said county. FSD. Next year for sure. Robotaxi. Next year for sure. They already started in SF for a couple years now (oh wait that’s waymo) Roadster. Next year for sure. Free speech “absolutist” (can’t say cisgender) Talks about having more kids or the world will end. (His kids call him deadbeat for not being around. Giving tesla paid gpu to privately owned company Xitter.

saudiaramcoshill

It isn't influencing their decision because they're not competitors. It'd be like saying P66 is competing with EOG because they're both in oil and gas. Or Ferrari is a competitor to BYD. Or Walmart is a competitor to Gucci. They're in the same broad industry but do not compete with each other because they have different target customers.

mjd5139

My neighbor actually owns a couple of Honda dealerships and his quote was "The Accord used to be a great car but then they added too much crap to it so no one can afford it." I read an article where Jeep prices have exceeded the spending power of their consumer base. This is just bad top down decision making by the manufacturers. To me this seems like the 80s where US manufacturers got fat and happy selling ever bigger and more expensive cars and then got crushed by VW and the Japanese entering the market. I don't trust Chinese stocks, but even with tariffs, I don't see how BYD isn't a huge winner from all of this.

bkbikeberd

BYD is a much safer bet. I’m losing money on NIO

Monsjoex

Ive been holding since 2018 or so but sold 1/3rd now. I dont see how this valuation holds. Its purely euphory because of trump being voted in. Self driving is years away from achieving the last 0.9999 % that is needed to not be doing stupid mistakes. Additionally i dont really believe it will generate the margins that the models predict. Sales are down yoy because of musk's antics. BYD and other chinese manufacturers will take a large part of the market. Which is fine because the market will be huge. But tesla will lose its competitive edge to the chinese players. Robots? Tesla wont be the only one doing this. in fact there are already lots of companies making robots for factories. Tesla just tries to look like they invented the wheel. Sort of how apple makes it look like they only invented the smartphone yet it was purely multiple cost curves going down.  The valuation only holds up if tesla becomes an AI player that is able to capture a market like google/amazon have.

5256chuck

It'll take Rivian expanding to more than just an electric auto manufacturer for Rivian to hit $100 in the near future. It's going to have to show some impressive software capabilities, too, and maybe some unique battery technology. I do believe they'll hit $100 eventually. I have accumulated a few shares that I've been buying for the past 3 years on a recurring basis, as well as a few leaps, betting that there would be at least two solid domestic EV producers, with TSLA being the other, once all is said and done. Also maintain a small stake in BYD.

No-Environment-5762

That would make it over 100b valuation. Thats same as BYD. Toyota and Ferrari is around 80s and most others like vw or ford is around 40. I really doubt 100 but if they get enough volumes which they might id imagine 40 50 bn which would translate to 40 per share if you’re very bullish.

Timbershoe

>Bmw literally cannot make affordable cars Yes they can. They simply don’t. They have had 15 years to copy manufacturers like Tesla or BYD. Instead they focus on luxury over price. >There literally isn‘t demand even for „affordable“ EVs, because an affordable EV is 32k€ And what’s the cheapest BMW EV? 70k€? Do you see the problem?

romt_25

Xpeng just announced it produced over 10k P7+ EV in the last 20 days after launch. Xpeng and BYD are gonna have crazy delivery numbers in 2025. 

Dannytuk1982

BYD