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Expected Moves this Week: SPY, QQQ into Fed. Earnings from Oracle, Adobe and more.
What are we looking at in the week ahead!
Over/Undervalued Options for earnings releases this week
Expected moves this week. SPY, QQQ, Amazon, Alphabet, Docusign, NIO and more.
U.S. stock futures are flat ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting
$COUP update: from +15k to -33k overnight. I am sick of this shit.
$COUP update: from +15k to -33k today. I’m sick of this shit.
$COUP update: from +15k yesterday to -33k today. I’m sick of this shit.
Oops shoulda scooped the $COUP, sold my calls AND puts at a loss, don't try this at home.
$COUP YOLO of the year: 30k in weekly puts. Growth grade: Negative. Quality grade: Negative. Valuation grade: Negative. P/E ratio: -109.45 (negative, lol). That’s DOCU 2.0, folks.
Shorting the Software/Service stocks
COUPA SOFTWARE REPORTS SECOND QUARTER FISCAL 2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS
The forecast for two very strong companies that are potential for growth🚀
Time to look at the COUP chart? Coupa Software
Most notable stock upgrades and downgrades June 8, 202
Most notable stock upgrades and downgrades June 8, 202
Expected moves for this week: Meme stocks, SPY, Earnings in COUP, CHWY, FCEL, MRVL and more
Mentions
Tried it with COUP. Bought at 50$ (was at 40$ 5 minutes later) and sold at about 30$ two days later. I was at the very beginning of my investment « career ». I certainly did something wrong. And by the way. COUP was reaching 200$ in 2021…. Well….
Discuss playing calls on COUP?
COUP traded at 40x sales in 2021. Now it is being bought for 8x sales. Your profits in software companies bought at 20x+ sales are not coming back.
### 6. Premarket Mid & Large Cap Movers: Coupa Software Inc. COUP 26.82% Horizon Therapeutics PLC HZNP 14.81% F5 Inc. FFIV 5.00% Planet Fitness Inc. Cl A PLNT 4.99% AECOM ACM 4.95% Extra Space Storage Inc. EXR 4.66% Smartsheet Inc. SMAR -5.00% Hyatt Hotels Corp. H -4.61% Leggett & Platt Inc. LEG -4.00% ### 5. Upgrades/Downgrades From the Best Analysts: [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f\_auto,q\_auto:good,fl\_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb9a229f-4754-42fa-92c5-0d1b27ac32bd\_426x765.png](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb9a229f-4754-42fa-92c5-0d1b27ac32bd_426x765.png)
### 1. Market Sentiment at the Open: Markets likely to remain choppy till the two events on Tuesday and Wednesday. Eagerly awaited consumer price index is due on Tuesday.That report is quickly followed on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve's next rate revision and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. This will decide the direction of the market for rest of the month. Lighter than expected inflation data isn't expected to deter officials from raising their benchmark policy rate by the projected 0.50% but vice-versa could be true; if inflation data is not to the liking, rates could be higher than 0.50% The Securities and Exchange Commission signaled plans to issue four proposals next week that aim to help small investors get better prices on their stock trades- good for small investors. #### Bears may like this COVID-19 cases spread in China after government eases restrictions High Debt Levels Could Pressure Developing Countries as Global Economy Slows #### Stock Specific TSMC bucks broader chip slump with 50% revenue surge, helped by iPhone orders MSFT taking a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange Group as part of a new, 10-year partnership. Over that period, LSEG has agreed to spend at least $2.8 billion on Microsoft’s cloud-related products. Rivian pauses plans to make electric vans in Europe with Mercedes-Benz Amgen confirms to acquire Horizon Therapeutics in cash deal valued at about $27.8 billion ### 2. Significant Events Calendar: ##### Time >>>>> Event >>>>>>> Interpreting the report (Oversimplified) 14:00 ET >>> Treasury Budget >>> Low impact on market ### 3. Anticipated Earnings: Before the Bell None of significance After the bell Oracle Corporation ORCL Coupa Software Incorporated COUP Fluence Energy, Inc. FLNC ### 4. Futures Data: * Dow Jones Mini +0.2 * S&P 500 Mini +0.3 * Nasdaq 100 Mini +0.3
$COUP - TOS shows reported earnings @ $0.15 vs -$0.623 (est).
>$COUP to Be Acquired by Thoma Bravo for $8 Billion, $81 Per Share ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-12-12 ^07:01:57 ^EST-0500
>$COUP Halted due to pending news [twitter.com/DeItaone/statu…](https://t.co/TJidzmyA4w) ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-12-12 ^06:22:42 ^EST-0500
$COUP up 20% premarket before earnings. Puts or pass?
>COUPA SOFTWARE INC'S SHARES JUMP 23.3% PREMARKET ON REPORT THOMA BRAVO IN ADVANCED TALKS TO BUY CO $COUP ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-12-12 ^05:29:50 ^EST-0500
💀💀💀💀 "retail trading attempt at a coup" 💀💀💀💀💀 WHO DID THEY TRY TO COUP 😭😭🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
COUP at 250. Made some money before now in dumps.
I agree, Coupa Software Incorporated (COUP) is a great company and their stock has been on the rise lately. I believe that they will continue to be successful in the future and their stock price will continue to increase. ^^[**Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse) ^^[BanBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) ^^VoteBot ^^[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/votebot/) ^^[Leaderboard](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/leaderboard/) ^^- ^^[**Keep_VM_Alive**](https://www.patreon.com/visualmod)
To me the trap is: all investors should answer this - what makes a company successful? Answer) Its products being competitive in the market (or services). Surprisingly many investors will do anything NOT to research how good a company's products are, and if anything is changing on that front. They would rather look at stock charts and make decisions on what they think they see. Maybe they are really smart and look at valuation ratios. I am guilty of this also. People wonder why trades go bad, but the answer is right in front of them the entire time. Read Consumer Reports; ask yourself if you use the company's products or if the company you work at uses the products. Two Toyotas are in our garage. So I own TM stock, etc. All investors should be able to immediately articulate exactly why the company they own stock in has products that are competitive. I had to learn this new purchasing method using Coupa at work. I had never heard of it before, but now my company is buying it. It is easy to use and clever. Stock symbol COUP, and I bought it this fall. Lastly watching when things were going well but start to go bad. Case in point TSLA. Everyone and their brother will be making a battery powered all electric car. Elon has taken to distraction with Twitter. Competition is a very bad thing when it is abundant. So avoid TSLA. You are smart. You can change
Last year into the beginning of this year was the time to short. I was shorting everything i possibly could last year in cloud software and other junk like CVNA, W, MRNA, etc. I think the overvalued stocks are not scraping the bottom of hype stocks. That’s how people got owned shorting GME, trying to bet on a bankruptcy that wasn’t happening. I’m out of most of my shorts but I think oil majors are becoming way overpriced, XOM, CVX, COP, etc. Revenue will drop off cliff if gas keeps plummeting. Also there’s some renewable bubbles like ENPH. Other than that I’d say DDOG, NOW, SNOW and a couple others in software but I wouldn’t start puts/shorts on much else. Been too beatdown, look at COUP last week, eventually value is found in the wreckage.
Hindsight Trading weekly total- (somebody correct my math)- $100 into MMS calls up 1433% on Tuesday. = $1433 $1433 into COUP $50 calls up 11,633% Wednesday = $166,700 $166,700 into ATVI $75 puts up 8350 % (shortly after open) today = $13,919,524
COUP will pump more next week or pullback?
Serious question: What do you guys think of COUP? Will it continue to pump Monday or will it pull back?
I don’t support a COUP at this time.
Hindsight Trading daily update: If any of you fools had the balls to but into the COUP $50 calls for Friday you be up a sweet 11,633% So what’s your excuse?
there’s a $COUP option that’s up 15,000% today. Why couldn’t I have had that
>PUTIN: WE HAD TO START OPERATION, WHY DID THEY STAGE COUP IN UKRAINE IN 2014? || SAYS THE COUP LED TO TODAY'S TRAGIC EVENTS \>PUTIN ALSO CITES MURDER OF DONBAS SEPARATIST LEADER ZAKHARCHENKO ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-10-27 ^11:17:39 ^EDT-0400
amazing how much have a lot of them fallen. some are even near to the IPO price or -85% from the ATH (COUP).
>PUTIN: WE WILL ALWAYS REMEMBER THOSE WHO DID NOT PUT UP WITH NEO-NAZI COUP IN UKRAINE IN 2014 ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-09-30 ^08:21:05 ^EDT-0400
Just woke up - I had a crazy vivid dream that I opened of drudge and the headline was CHINA COUP 🚨 - I clicked on the headline and it showed a car deliberately crashing and people getting out and running away from police. I don’t remember anything else. China has been acting really odd for a long time. The zero Covid policy is some Sort of a cover for locking people down. There’s something fishy going on guys. Last time I had a vivid dream like this was January and was similar a vivid dream of me finding a video of a line of APCs crossing into Ukraine
$COUP is oversold potential up side look it up.
2 of these worked well for me this week. COUP & DOCU. I look forward to these earnings releases weekly. Market is green today, why is everyone so upset on this sub?
>FORMER 49ERS/BRONCOS LINEBACKER BILL ROMANOWSKI TO BE NAMED KING OF ENGLAND AFTER SUCCESSFUL COUP ATTEMPT > >^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-09-08 ^11:54:07 ^EDT-0400
What we thinking about COUP tomorrow.. want to hold my 66C
I am guessing COUP will hit 45 AH. Then again. It could hit 70 AH
thoughts on COUP into earnings?
GME puts, east shit apes. What will you say when cash on hand is less than a billion, what's the plan now? GTLB bear spreads, why is this company worth anything, COUP and PATH aren't any good either, but too close to 52wk lows and anything could cause a sharp bounce. And of course, the Ol' Reliable DOCU bear spreads, people aren't signing mortgages with rates above 6%.
I own COUP, SPOT, SAP, BABA and GOOGL. Obviously my picks are awful, but you asked for tech stocks. (I honestly believe all of these are seriously undervalued, but clearly the market disagrees).
So COUP had basically no reaction at ER. Those with puts are screwed just as much as those with calls Disclaimer: Honestly don't care about COUP...has disappointed too much in past
Let's just have a moment for anyone holding $COUP options for earnings...160% IV and the move is +0.62%
Coupa (COUP) has entered the chat
SPOT COUP SAP (not really growth but hugely undervalued below 100).
🇷🇺🇺🇦 PUTIN COUP IS UNDERWAY AND 'IMPOSSIBLE TO STOP': UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE -BI Their intelligence probably uses doves with letters to gather info
>PUTIN COUP IS UNDERWAY AND 'IMPOSSIBLE TO STOP': UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE -BI ^FXHedge ^[@Fxhedgers](http://twitter.com/Fxhedgers) ^at ^2022-05-14 ^11:38:20 ^EDT-0400
DIS, FORD, NXE, SPY, COUP Those are my biggest plays at least.
SPOT, COUP, SAP, RKLB, BABA. <<add portfolio here>>
Tues AH/Wed PM; COIN, SOFI, RBLX, PSFE Wed AH/Thu PM: RIVN, BYND, COUP... Not very familiar with the Thursday morning reports Thu AH/Fri PM: AFRM, Toast, Aurora All of those are in the wheelhouse as "overpriced speculative tech" plays. Not all will crater further, but they all have potential.
Tues AH/Wed PM; COIN, SOFI, RBLX, PSFE Wed AH/Thu PM: RIVN, BYND, COUP... Not very familiar with the Thursday morning reports Thu AH/Fri PM: AFRM, Toast, Aurora?
There are several stocks below covid lows. PYPL, NFLX, COUP to name a few of many. Not sure if I’m buying into your covid low thesis here.
About 15. COUP SPOT RKLB A bunch more non growth ranked 4-10. But you asked my top 3 lol.
Some are oversold yes, but all in all there is still a lot of room. I bought SPOT and COUP because they were below 2019 levels. But others like AAPL and TSLA have hardly gone down at all (until last week). The market as a whole still has a lot of downward room. Even if some individual stocks have crashed. What I think is curious is that the cashflow positive growth stocks seem to suffer the most. I cannot explain that.
Puts on COUP, NET and ROKU printing for me though
NET puts, will be adding COUP puts at open
My take: If you are exiting a profitable position, you did something wrong. The rules are simple: when you exit a position, you have to split any profits with Uncle Sam. The best course of action is to give your Uncle Sam all the losers and keep the winners for yourself. The numbers are too big. We're not talking about a 2% tax rate. When everything is accounted for, your profits are taxed at 30% - and do you think the rates will go up or down? You got a million in profits? Ship $300k to the government. Mathematically, you HAVE to take the losses first. If you lose $100k then make $100k, you are break even. But if you make $100k and then lose $100k, you don't get that $30k in taxes paid back. You get to apply that to future gains (IF there are any of course). Find yourself with too big a position due to a runaway market? Good problems to have for sure, but you messed up by taking too big of an initial position, or didn't diversify well enough. Does it hurt when it goes against you? Yes. I bought the $85 COUP calls in \~2019 for a song when the stock was under $60. Took delivery of the shares, watched it go to $370, thought I was a genius. I puked it out last week under $80 (its back over $100 of course). In 30 days, I'll add it back to potential stocks. But sometimes profits keep going. My basis in GME is $8, ENPH $3, NVAX $3, plenty more. These positions are rare, but completely normal and attainable to the average investor. Churn and burn the losers. In the last 5 years I've had thousands of losing trades, with maybe a handful of profitable ones - mostly due to cash takeovers. If I need cash? Again, good problems to have, but I messed up somewhere. I invested too much. I'll sell from my losers first, then the smallest winners (and lean towards the smallest long term gains when applicable). Leverage: Always know how much you need to sell to cover. I like to keep my leverage amount to a zero-tax amount (for example, I leverage up by $X, I can cover this by selling all losers and an amount of winners so that I don't have a liability) LIFO is your friend. Keep adding to your profits as necessary, you can dump the new shares when they go against you. Overall, take the losses first. You get to invest the tax liability for yourself, and get to sell when it works best for YOU.
COUP and AFRM will save us in the end.
For some of these it’s not too late, but if you’re gonna go short now you missed 50% gains since Nov. Would not short DOCU, COUP, SHOP, CRWD, U, OKTA, at these levels because they could run DDOG, BILL, TEAM, MDB, ZS, SNOW and a couple others still over valued. Keep an eye on em for otm puts far out or if you can stomach shorting shares.
Is it too late to buy COUP since financials are out?
I also bet big on COUP. aside from my shitty AMD puts, this morning will be swell.
Tough to be overall red on a day I hit COUP earnings but here I am.
I lost 8k yesterday after not setting a stop loss. Bought 10 COUP puts yesterday at close. Woke up to 11k gain. Phew.
I don’t have a bunch of capital I’m investing with first off lol im a retard at heart. Just started doing options about 3 weeks ago but yea further out expiry is good for sure I learned that lesson after goin down quite a bit. I’ve got the following though 2-COUP 2-BABA 5-SPY 2-RIVN 3-MGM 2-NFLX 2-VZ And I bought 3 calls for AMD and LMT. All expiring like 4/1 - 4/18 I don’t ever exercise my options though-idk if that’s dumb but I sell it ones I get up on decent profits and rinse and repeat for the next day if I’m feelin extra 🐻. No strategy here really besides just watching news and thinkin about geopolitics lol but it’s been workin
Sold 3/4 of my COUP puts before close yesterday and it hurts
Anyone else holding COUP puts?
Gonna $ROPE after calling COUP, deciding it was way too obvious, and spreading my money to shit plays.
My dumb ass is using robinhood (I know) lol but anyways I had puts on COUP-it crashes hard af after hours but like 10 min ago a huge green dildo shows up. Is that an accurate candle or am I chillin?
Yo so COUP crashed hard after close but just beat the smack out of earnings. Are my puts safe till tm morning lmao
Most of the gains came from SE puts, CRWD calls, and COUP puts
2.1k-->9k on my puts-only gambling account for the past 2 weeks. (im counting my COUP puts before they hatch) I'll take it
COUP just another reminder that the market still has a long way to go
Who the fuck didn't tell me COUP was going to be a 15 bagger after hours. Couldv'e put a downpayment on a house with those gains
smol gambling port still alive. https://i.imgur.com/cZk7JFO.jpg In big boy port, I opened COUP put. https://imgur.com/a/zpwxWqS
COUP just got sent back to the stone age.
I sold all of my COUP $96 puts lol
Lmao bought puts on COUP
Hopefully these COUP puts print
Fuck! Sold my COUP puts too early lol
Sold most of my $96 and $95 and $90 COUP put contracts as it already more than tripled my entire portfolio lmao... holding some for the lols
COUP puts or nah folks?? I don’t know shit bout them
Do I hold my COUP puts or nah
Idk what COUP does but apparently it's software and my investment thesis is simple: I see the word 'software', I short
Cashflow positive, not GAAP profitable yet: - SPOT - COUP Hammered by FUD: - BABA Coming close: - SAP - INTC - TNET (Belgian Comcast) - NFLX (I do not own but follow) To be honest with you I thought there were more… so I guess there is still good margin to drop more.
COUP has earnings but SNOW doesn't lol, and i'm only here to play earnings. COUP is more comparable to WDAY and CRM (similar range of multiples, but COUP has the highest at the moment). COUP is also the least profitable, has a higher debt ratio, and higher price/sales ratio. Only thing they have going for them is higher growth %. But yes, SNOW is one of the most if not the most overvalued SaaS company.
COUP to $60 next week would make me cum
COUP puts for earnings next week gonna print... right?
COUP puts for earnings next week, you heard it here first.
COUP D ET IN BELARUS AGAINST RUSSIA!! Holy shit. https://mobile.twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996?s=20&t=-9x2IMpPcSGGMBwg_Fg2dQ
>US SHARES FRESH CLAIMS OF MOSCOW COUP PLOT FOR UKRAINE: FT ^FXHedge ^[@Fxhedgers](http://twitter.com/Fxhedgers) ^at ^2022-02-15 ^00:58:49 ^EST-0500
I'm so tempted to buy COUP, but two things holding me back... 1) it's still not that cheap even on a p/s multiple. 2) there CAC payback period is sub par for a SAAS company (approx 4 years by my calculations)
COUP is below covid lows. SPLK is right there.
FUCKING GAG ORDER UNITED STATES ISRAEL GOVERNMENT collaboration with the Sudanese Jewish tribes 📲FUCKING UNITED NATIOS new green deal benifits Jewish owned BANKS OVER SEAS NEW YORK DELI LEDGERS chedder cheese plattar 🤤NATIONALLY OWNED UNITED NATIONS WALL STREET STOCKS owned by Jacob RothBERG(((Stein))) $€£¥ אני לא מבין לזה DEMONIC CULTISTS dovahkiin Los variin AL QUEDA BACKED MILITIA Israeli funded Bank of America QANON ALLIEGANCE PACT 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇮🇱🚨“acne scars” INSIDE JOB INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE EXAMINE the rite aid (((bandage))) isle 👃👃👃👃👃 OUR GREATEST ALLY black lives mattar JEWISH POLICE FUNDING race mixing eugenics Using cetaphil has imporoved my skin overall VENEZULA COUP OMAHA NEBRASKA INCIDENT 1985 pizzagate MKULTRA ELISA LAMB CASE APRIL 30TH 1991 chemtrails are real Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 NEW COKE george soros Üst akıl Israel animal spying FEMA DEEP STATE fluoridation GLOBAL WARMING HOAX as the elder scrolls foretold
Honestly, I'd say 65% of the time or better. I've lost on MTN, COUP, and BIG earnings, but with the strangle, I will mainly break even at worst. I've had 1000% plays on others, but noted specifically my best success stories. I always kick myself for not going heavier, but I will only play 5% of my port on an ER play, because it truly is a gamble It's important to note that the timing is everything. If you buy after the IV spike, you're going to lose more likely than not. And playing ER's before Thursday is typically going to be a lot higher risk. I really wanted to play ADBE puts for ER, but too expensive for puts on a Monday. The other side of the token is. You can inverse the movement within a day or two after earnings. I played ORCL puts last week after it ran. Usually the direction doesn't continue.
I play them if they report earnings on Thursday. I seen returns of 2000% on ZM 200p, 1500% on MRVL 85c, 5000% on DOCU 200p, 3200% on ABNB 195c, and 5000% on ORCL 102.5c My strategy is that I buy on Thursday at open before the IV spike. The reason I only pay ER on Thursdays is because it's essentially a 1DTE lotto and you don't pay a lot for the contracts. I'll do as much research as possible and I'll go heavier to the side I believe it will move, but enough to the opposite side to cover my losses. I've looked at most of the stocks, and they will typically make a 10-20% move after earnings, (which is absolutely insane), so I typically try to take 10-15% OTM for low r/r. I mean on Oracle, I paid .08 per 102.5c and DOCU I paid 1.25 per 200p. Admittedly, I was wrong on DOCU, so I wasn't heavy to the put side, but safe to say they more than covered my calls. This strategy doesnt always work either. If the ticker stats flat, you'll lose on both ends, BUT if you buy before the IV spike, you can see massive gains also. I lost 1500 on COUP because it stayed flat, but I bought COUP puts at open and literally sold for 100% profit 10 minutes later when I kicked in. I do have screenshots of all of these plays, but it's been doing well for me.