CSCO

Brilliant_Guidance65

CSCO 🚀 To the moon.

they_paid_for_it

$CSCO calls!

neverseengreen

I have been burned so bad these last couple weeks on AI stocks I have reverted back to CSCO. Hopefully they can return to an ATH after earnings

TheseHandsDoHaze

$75 call on $CSCO is crazy that’s their 52 week high basically. No chance it goes that high

Bagholder147

CSCO for earnings. It's a gamble. Revaluation already in progress. Saying fair value is $71. Price target $88 and guidance should be wonderful. https://preview.redd.it/5m8uw2j2qi0g1.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=6867be9b190626efc3c55210cef441f23e051339 Best I got. Pure gamble. But it's worked before. Do some googling on it.

Technical_Scheme4308

CSCO calls a month or 2 out?

naked_space_chimp

Alright! you beautiful losers... I'm back with my shitty trades & you are going to love it. We are staring at a potential end of the government shutdown but saw consumer sentiment hit near 3.5-year lows last week, with a record job layoff year since 2009 and to top that last week we saw S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April. Bearish, right? But you know what the fck up is... markets are trading near all-time highs with valuations stretched to the moon, mega-cap concentration at record levels & everyone's still betting on a year-end Santa rally fueled by Fed rate cuts and high on AI euphoria. So here we go... * 🐂 **DIS — Nov 29, $105 CALL** — Theme park + streaming momentum. Position for post-earnings drift. * 🐂 **CSCO — Nov 29, $75 CALL** — AI networking, capital returns, solid guidance. Buy after earnings pop. * 🐻 **AMAT — Nov 29, $220 PUT** — ITM trade as semi cracks, inventory warnings, fading hot money. These trades are around 4 trading weeks out on expiration but you get to play through earnings which are volatile so be there or be squared. Fight enough to live another day, stay solvent as the market will stay regarded. Market doesn't give a fck about your feelings so trade carefully. Now go and make some monies & make yourself less sufferable. Later Alligator!

Bagholder147

I'm thinking CSCO. Being re valued after A.I shift and new price targets https://preview.redd.it/i20kemy3x90g1.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=2aeabbc3119755622ebcc9e7f2976c1cf2a66c75

Bagholder147

I agree with you. Think about CSCO for this very reason https://preview.redd.it/x8mr3vvww90g1.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=69b23167b1f55898e2106a5ca0dc3926189e9d1e

Bagholder147

Got WULF calls and thinking about CSCO target raised to $80. Shifted to A.I so calls.

stickman07738

Doubtful, the smart people just saw it as a repeat of the Internet build out in the late 1990s-early 2000s when QCOM, CSCO and other skyrocketing due to its build out, circular financing of other companies and then leveled out as demand peaked and replace equipment more back to steady-state. With AI, GPU build out is probably 20-40% done but really depends on how many data centers will be completed. As with many technologies today, the TAM is wildly exaggerated in my opinion - a perfect example is charging stations.

Brilliant_Guidance65

CSCO 🚀

jamieperkins9999

RGTI - down CRWV - down ASTS - down NBIS - down OKLO - down CRCL - down CSCO - down BITF - down Looks like im a bear next week.

landspeed

AMOD - very lightly reported because it's new, they just won a settlement against CSCO - Cisco

shutterdoc

I agree and in fact NVDA PE is very far from say the ORCL / CSCO 200X before the dot com bubble burst. Plus the gov is just going to keep printing and bubbling up our assets...

Plane_Musician_706

When people start saying it’s different this time…it is time to ask what happened to CSCO or INTL or AOL or heck pets.com

Gbank1111

Yeah…. No. INTC, CSCO, MSFT, BRCM, AOL - they were the “REAL” darlings of the dot com bubble. They all had profits before the bubble and then suffered immensely when the bubble burst. Now, 25 years later, they’ve recovered and prospered. The pets.com companies were a stupid concept which most intelligent investors wouldn’t touch. What is NOT APPARENT in a bubble is the degree of interdependency the “high quality” companies have on the “low quality” ones. For example - NVDA/AMD makes money by selling chips to META - last week META crashed when investors saw the horrible ROI their huge AI spending has yielded. See how this is a problem for both companies?

Livueta_Zakalwe

In the late 90s, there a lot of small internet companies with incredibly high valuations making no money - and a few really big companies like MSFT, INTC and CSCO etc who were overvalued making $ hand over fist. Today there are a lot of small AI related companies with incredibly high valuations making no money, and a few really big companies like MSFT, AMZN, Google etc who are overvalued making $ hand over fist. Wait, what was the difference again?

wafflepiezz

Made $1.6k on $TOST calls today. Next play: Bought $4.5k into $CSCO calls. ER next week. Looks like big boys are gonna be pumping this up on the run up imo.

AggieDem

Smash cut to some Boomer holding CSCO since March 2000.

AdPotential773

I think Intel is a better example even if it wasn't as hyped as Cisco. Cisco was pure hype (they did have a business going on, but their P/E ratio peaked in the hundreds), while the intel and Nvidia P/E ratios are/were very high, but not CSCO's level of pure euphoric delusion.

RKO_Films

When bubbles pop everything drops. Look at the dot com bubble popping: we know with he benefit of hindsight that AAPL and AMZN were good investments but they still crashed along with CSCO, JDSU and Pets.com all the same.

Livueta_Zakalwe

I’m 99% sure that PLTR and NVDA are going to crash hard at some point, like down 90%. But I’ve thought that for a year and look where we are now. It’s like shorting TSLA, which *should* trade at about 10% its current price - but look at it go! I’m waiting for a sign - one of GOOG or AMZN or someone like that to announce they’re not buying any more chips because they’re not getting any ROI and they’ve got plenty, thanks - what happened to CSCO, Intel and many others in 2000 (IWT) - and I’m going to short the shit out of the QQQ. It’s so obvious it’s going to happen - but shorting now, just because they’re bubbles, is nuts.

Brilliant_Guidance65

CSCO

AggieDem

[CSCO is outperforming QQQ.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-wT7sijLIs)

Brilliant_Guidance65

Don't sleep on CSCO.

RonMexico16

Even better. Look at CSCO. There are even parallels b/w NVDA in the AI bubble and CSCO in the dot com bubble as the shovel sellers in the gold rush.

Brilliant_Guidance65

CSCO is the play. No high volatility, pays dividends, is valued right, is in Ai, data center, cybersecurity, etc. CSCO is both.

option-trader

The other crazy part is it needs to reach a market cap of $10T just to match CSCO’s 2000 market cap/net income ratio. 

gatovision

Most expensive large cap of all time, nothing, even in the .com, is even in the same galaxy. $500B on $4B revenue per year. currently 125x p/s. AOL and CSCO were maybe 30xs sales at their peak. On top of that , governments have strict spending budgets. But bulls have been right over and over again for years so who knows.

wafflepiezz

Got $3k into $CSCO calls, seems like big boys want to pump this to ATHs on the run-up to earnings.

DarkestPabu

Ask CSCO stockholders if they feel the same way

pamdathebear

Nvidia 10T is like CSCO 1T back in 2000. This bubble is just beginning.

sirzoop

If its actually a bubble like you describe, it will go up to a 200 forward P/E ratio just like CSCO did right before the dot com bubble crash. For NVDA to get to a 200 forward P/E ratio the stock would have to go up another 645% from here.

Rav_3d

That’s a lot of energy to argue with a bull market. If earnings are good, and the Mag 7 can afford these insane investments, who are we to say it’s not justified? AI is the new frontier, they have to build build build. If it translates to earnings growth the valuations are reasonable. NVDA still trading at less than 40 forward PE while in the midst of the dot-com bubble CSCO was trading 100+. No doubt, we’re overdue for a correction, and it might be a doozy when it comes. But it will likely be a major buying opportunity.

Sanpaku

Doubt NVDA will be in the top 10 in 2030. It's the CSCO of the AI bubble. CSCO is still a major company, but its hovered outside the top 30 in the S&P 500 for two decades. Am I going to short it? No. There are other, better prospects.

sirzoop

NVDA is trading at a 2027 29 P/E. Very far from CSCO's 200 forward P/E during the dot com bubble. NVDA's price would have to 6x from here to be valued the same as CSCO during the dot com bubble

BetaDeltic

It is hard to see, because they all just seem like Musk's pipedreams to keep the hype going. FSD has been next-year item for over a decade now. Humanoid robots seem completely laughable, because humans are not some sort of perfect form and there are a lot of companies who have been working on same goals for a lot longer and have deeper know-how. In terms of battery tech - Lucid got them beat and new compatition from China also keeps coming. They might acquire some company that could help them, but even then - it's already priced-in and then some. Just because a company is detached from their fundamentals, doesn't mean it stays like that forever (see CSCO, for example)

stickman07738

That is the flaccid as I lost over $300K on QCOM, CSCO and others in early 2000. Just go look at the charts. ***Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.***

uslashuname

Is it a good play to bet on a 4.5 trillion dollar market cap company to leap to 6T practically overnight? If they absorb AMD, NFLX, IBM, CSCO, TMUS, and ARM in the next 2 weeks then you’ll profit.

Ok-Basis7126

Selling any stock that could did not make money today or after close I'm looking at you $CSCO

Anxious_Cheetah5589

It probably will change history! CSCO (among others) was going to change history 25 years ago (and did!), but it's only now around all-time highs set a quarter century ago.

mayorolivia

I listen to their ER and follow them pretty closely. The way to think about ALAB, CRDO, ANET, CSCO, and other networkers like NVDA, AVGO, MRVL is they will benefit from number of chips deployed. Nvidia for example has gone from 8 GPUs fused together to 72. Their next generation called Rubin will fuse 144 GPUs together. As this continues, the hyperscalers will need more Ethernet cables, AECs, switches, etc. Again, I hold all 3. If I were to rank them on safety, it would be Anet, followed by Crdo, then Alab. ALAB has stiff competition from Nvidia themselves as well as Broadcom and Marvell. Crdo has 70% market share in their space and don’t really compete with the big guns. If I were to tank them on growth potential I would say ALAB, followed by CRDO, and lastly ANET. ALAB is going through a blip due to analyst fears about more competition however the networking TAM is growing so rapidly they will continue to do well. They have 2 major catalysts in the next 2 weeks. First, Amazon reports next week which will help the stock since they are ALAB’s main customer. Then they will beat and raise again in their November 4 ER.

Such_Coin

Jeopardy time! Answer: AAPL, GOOG, META, NVDA, TSLA, CSCO Question: which California companies are driving the whole fucking economy of our country?

D74248

>...There are some companies that are actually innovating There is a difference between the viability of the business and its stock market valuation. Look at the chart for CSCO from 1/1/2000 to today. Two things can be true at the same time. In this case, AI is promising and will deliver great change. AI companies are seriously overvalued. Both may be true.

NorCalAthlete

NVDA, TSLA, CSCO, GME, GOOG, AAPL, PLTR are my biggest holdings besides options. There are a few rocket / drone / AI / energy companies that I either have my eye on or have already started accumulating. I’m up almost 100% YOY on SMR, for example. It more than makes up for being down a few points on SRUUF, and I’m also up over 100% on URA.

mandarkatong

Adding two dogs of the dot.com boom, $INTC and $CSCO... making a bet on geopolitics.

MasterpieceLiving738

Companies are also making way more than back then 😂 CSCO was making around $8B in revenue annually at the peak of the DotCom bubble and had $500B market cap. NVDA will do almost $200B in revenue this year, with a $4.3T market cap. CSCO’s P/S during the DotCom bubble was 62.5, NVDA’s today is around 22. One is not like the other.

Lazy-Gene-7284

Exactly not even close. If you want to doom scroll be my guest, many people do just don’t make up additional hyperbole. 1999-2000 had TONS of companies with infinite PE’s, and CSCO at a 220PE

chatrep

My indicator for peak AI bubble is NVDA PE 500. (See CSCO dot com). I’ll exit before bubble pops when NVDA is at 300+ PE :)

Money_Law7344

One would hope that CSCO will join this party at some stage? Crickets?

mettur7

Well put OP. Assuming one invests and continues to invest established and profitable businesses, I would think they will recover over some time. In 2000 when dot com bubble burst those who chased the internet mania did not recover well from the burst. But many other tech companies, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN and others recovered. Sure CSCO, Yahoo, Global crossing who relied on the frenzy did not recover. I am thinking same thing will happen again. OpenAI, Coreweave will vanish and NVDA which is feeding them will have very difficult time to recover. But META (ad business) MSFT (SW & cloud) will take longer to recover due to heavy spending. AAPL will recover sooner. If someone is counting on AI primarily for business (NVDA, PLTR, CRVW etc) will suffer big.

gamjatang111

My point is it is nearly impossible to time bubbles. Everyone thought BTC is a bubble yet it is still going strong. Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance in december 1996 and Nasdaq didnt peek until 2000. CSCO has continuously made M&As throughout the late 90s.

shasta747

An older colleague at my company says this is exactly what CSCO did back in dot com bubble when Silicon Valley was obsessed with networking technologies. CSCO did a lot of 'investments' just like NVDA. Hope it will be different this time.

BrownshoeElden

Like CSCO. If you held it from early 2000 through today… it’s real dollar value is down 43%. And that one survived!

WillTheGreat

All these 2000s name resurfacing in the AI space. Look out for CSCO to make some all time highs

proudziggy

!banbet CSCO 75 7d

gummybear728

CSCO!!

Rav_3d

I see many parallels to the dot-com era, just replace "Internet" with "AI", CSCO with NVDA. I just differ from most on where on the cycle we are. The large cap technology companies cannot get enough capacity. They realize the future of AI and need to build the platform, perhaps even overbuild. The big difference between AI and Internet is that AI has far more potential to increase productivity across the board, and this will lead to increased profit margins and earnings growth. Couple this with a Fed lowering interest rates and we have a bullish backdrop that can remain in place for years to come. Eventually, the spending will stop, there will be a realization that they overbuilt, and the market will tank. But when that happens, and how much higher we will go before then, is anyone's guess.

xmod3563

I've been digging into this lately, and while the AI hype is all over Nvidia and the big tech giants, I think there are some solid plays that are flying under the radar and look pretty undervalued right now. Take Intel (INTC) for starters, they've got a massive footprint in chip manufacturing, and with their push into AI accelerators and data center tech, they're set to capture a ton of the backend infrastructure growth as more companies roll out AI. Sure, they've had some bumps, but their established fabs and partnerships mean they're basically a safe bet for steady gains as AI scales up globally, without the wild volatility of newer players. Another one I'm eyeing is IBM (IBM). They've been in the AI game forever with Watson, and now they're leveraging that for enterprise solutions like hybrid cloud and analytics that businesses actually need for real-world AI adoption. It's not flashy, but their focus on practical AI integration for big corps positions them perfectly for long-term revenue streams, especially since their stock price doesn't reflect the embedded value in their services division yet. And don't sleep on Cisco (CSCO), networking is the unsung hero of AI, handling all that massive data flow between devices and clouds. With their hardware and security edge, they're undervalued compared to the demand spike coming from AI-driven IoT and edge computing, making them a no-brainer for patient investors looking at the next decade.

Successful-Tea-5733

Yes we discussed this elsewhere. Amazon, Microsoft and other successful companies also saw their stock values collapse at that time. CSCO survived but they had more competition so thats why it took 20 years for them to recover.  Will see if NVDA can stay ahead of the competition. But people been calling them CSCO for 3 years. So far hasn't mattered. 

Alone_Owl8485

NVDA is like CSCO. In the dot.com bubble, CSCO had $12bn in annual revenue and a 55% growth rate but their stock price still dropped 80%. https://www.ft.com/content/81a03045-86f7-4e57-afbd-5ff83679615f

Fancy-Lavishness9034

holding the bag on the CSCO top for 25 years to see it finally go green lmao

Successful-Tea-5733

Absoultely not a myth lol. CSCO isn't the reason that 2000 happened. I'm talking about [pets.com](http://pets.com), webvan, and the like. Companies that's valuations were tied to future earnings and either were making no money or losing money. That wasn't "overvaluing profitable companies" that was overvaluing companies that made no money. CSCO made money. The bigger issue with CSCO and the reason it didn't rebound faster is because they had good competition. Now, does that mean NVDA "could" go the same was as CSCO? Maybe. But it appears to me that NVDA is really broadening their base specifically for this reason, so

Weak_Ostrich459

People comparing NVDA to CSCO as if we're at the top rn, CSCOs P/E was like 200 in early 2000, NVDAs P/E is around 50, if we're comparing shit based on that we're just at the beginning of the euphoria phase and got lots of room before a "pop".

Jangelly

Go look at a long term stock chart for Cisco Systems (ticker CSCO).

gummybear728

Someone give me their opinion on CSCO

Top-Meaning2626

[ORCL will be the new CSCO IN THE DOT COM ANNIHILATION](https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1972144218651926753?s=19)

ThetaHedge

Great write-up - a couple quick add-ons from the seller’s angle: * **Always check both present & historical premiums.** Sometimes IVP looks “cheap” but the actual % yield on puts/calls is still attractive. * **Vol isn’t uniform across expiries.** Like you pointed out with CSCO, 30DTE might look tame while 60DTE is screaming - matters a lot if you’re wheeling or selling further out. * **Practical takeaway:** for income strategies, IVP is usually more useful than IVR, but it’s best to look at both side-by-side with actual % returns to strike. Bottom line: IV isn’t just a number - you’ve got to match it to your trade, timeframe, and whether you’re buying or selling vol.

sharpetwo

Good points on IVR being noisy because indeed one outlier and the rank is warped for a year. That is definitely a trap new traders fall into. But IVP is not a magic fix either. It is still just a rear-view mirror: “where have we been in the past 12 months?” It tells you nothing about the forward surface you are actually trading. The windshield is term structure, skew, and RV vs IV. That is where the real edge sits. Sticking to your CSCO example: 30 day IVP at 47% looks “mid,” but if you are trading 60 day options you care about that line, not the 30 day anchor. Often the best VRP harvests are when IVP looks low, because realized is even lower and the carry is fat. We have a perfect examples in US indices lately with VIX (low) at 15/16 but realized at 8/10 and selling options has been perfect for 4 months now. So IVR misleads, IVP cleans it up a bit, but both are static. If you are putting on trades, you want to be looking forward, not just percentile marks of the past.

Late-Band-151

100% that is what’s happening. If it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck and walks up to you and tells you it’s a fucking duck, then it’s probably CSCO during dot com 🫧

OkAnt7573

It took CSCO 20+ years to recover, think that is the concern being voiced 

Weak_Ostrich459

Another thing with tech, specifically the MAG7, they are bringing in profits and advancing technology incredibly quickly which is why they outpaced the market, unlike CSCO with the dot com bubble, profits from these new technologies are being brought in. The problem that arose from the dot com era was people were expecting the internet to instantly revolutionize everything and immediately start reigning in profits, when it showed that some of these small companies could not profit off of the internet they caused an implosion, we dont see nearly as much of that today because most companies using AI are using it to cut costs which drive revenue. Hell if you wanted to call everything that outpaced the S&P a bubble, start shorting them lmao.

tropicalia84

I mean NVDA p/s higher than CSCO p/s during 2000 and the market is at the highest valuations and the highest market cap/GDP in the history of the market ever but go on queen. My point is about the upcoming bubble.

superbilliam

Well, the competition is very very hot for that. They have loads of direct competition and some indirect, but still focused enough to keep market share away from NTSK. Some examples (yes, it is an AI list, but I did read over it and they all apply and then some). I could find many more: * Fortinet (FTNT): While known for their firewall and network security products, Fortinet has been expanding their offerings to include a SASE (Secure Access Service Edge) platform that competes directly with Netskope. They leverage their existing customer base and broad portfolio. * Cloudflare (NET): Known for its content delivery network (CDN), Cloudflare has aggressively moved into the cybersecurity and SASE market with its "Cloudflare One" platform. Their global network gives them a unique advantage in terms of speed and performance. * Check Point Software (CHKP): This is another long-established cybersecurity company that offers a comprehensive suite of security solutions, including SASE products. They are a major player with a focus on a unified security approach. * Microsoft (MSFT): With its massive Azure cloud platform, Microsoft is a formidable competitor. Their integrated security solutions like Microsoft Defender for Cloud and Microsoft 365 security offerings can be a strong alternative for companies already heavily invested in the Microsoft ecosystem. * Broadcom (AVGO): Following its acquisition of Symantec's enterprise security business, Broadcom is now a significant player in the market, particularly in data loss prevention (DLP) and cloud access security broker (CASB) solutions, which are core to Netskope's platform. * Zscaler (ZS): Zscaler is a major player in the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) and Security Service Edge (SSE) markets, which are key areas for Netskope. They are often cited as a direct and significant competitor. * Palo Alto Networks (PANW): A leading cybersecurity company, Palo Alto Networks offers a broad suite of products, including their Prisma Access SASE platform, which directly competes with Netskope's offerings. * Cisco Systems (CSCO): With their extensive portfolio of security products, including Cisco Umbrella, Cisco is a formidable competitor. They have a massive installed base and brand recognition. * Forcepoint: A global cybersecurity company specializing in data-first SASE and other security solutions. Their focus on data protection and user behavior analysis makes them a direct competitor in the cloud security space. * Cato Networks: This company is a key competitor in the SASE market, offering a converged networking and security platform from the cloud. They are known for their integrated approach to security and networking.

rcantu314

Full porting leaps on IBM CSCO and Sony, one of these boomer stocks has to hit again right?

Successful_Source365

CSCO looking real good rn

Jballer200k

what would happen to CSCO stock if they get a 5b investment?

Jballer200k

CSCO has to be next.

Infamous_Ad8730

??? MSFT, AMZN, CSCO, GOOGL, and many others came out of the dot com era, and are kinda' profitable. Nearly exactly like AI is doing now (AI is not profitable right now for any real companies but has huge upside). WHY am I arguing investment history with a 19 Y.O. anyway?? 🤣

RadarDataL8R

Depends on how you want to play it. Personally I use LEAPS to add leverage to low IV stocks or ETFs. I've found XME, XLU and GDX to be great. I also love using LEAPS on dividend stocks, because although you dont get the dividend, the dividends effects on the extrinsic value is such that you can buy LEAPS with basically no theta, which in turn means you can aggressively sell against them, knowing at any point you can exercise for close to nothing and allow the shares to be called away and start again. BTI, CSCO and HPQ have been solid choices with that tactic for me, although it should work with any dividend stock you like that pays over 4-ish% yield.

Western_Objective209

My grandfather died in the early 2000s, his etrade account was mostly Enron and CSCO shares. His statement showed like 2,000 or whatever shares of Enron valued at $0.00, and his CSCO was down like 90%. Complete regard

Samjabr

Could CSCO really be a next mini-ORCL?

SteevieJanowski

You could also go w an IT sector fund like XLK or FTEC and get good exposure to both plus MSFT, AAPL, ORCL, PLTR, AMD, CSCO, CRM and more.

Successful-Tea-5733

OP has no idea what a bubble is so no point in engaging in discussion.  Hint, the tech bubble 25 years ago was because companies with bo sales and no earnings had huge valuation. That pushed up the ones like CSCO who did have earnings, but overinflated their value. Companies like NVDA, TSMC, ORCL and the like, they all have huge earnings. Every market correction is not a bubble burst. 

Jballer200k

CSCO has a very similar path of growth over the last year that ORCL had before it became a millionaire maker. The calls are incredibly inexpensive. I’m going for it. CSCO has the blueprint.

Steve_Petrov

ADBE could go either way tbh. They could miss or hit the analysts’ expectations. Or they could hit expectations and drop like CSCO Or miss expectations and pop like ORCL 🤷‍♂️

2Hosslovescash

So CSCO $150 calls are the play since we’re back to 2000 again with ORCL?

ArchegosCapitalCEO

What’s next? CSCO up 40%?

jhonnylasagna

I think the question is not a good one. I wouldn’t necessarily plan on holding any individual stocks for 15 plus years. Maybe, just maybe. But I definitely would not buy a stock and start a position with that long of time frame in mind. Things change. That’s why quarterly reevaluations are common when financial planning and portfolio adjustments made in response to changing times and conditions. Nobody thought a lowly video game company would instead morph into the cornerstone of the AI revolution. But NVDA did. If I was to focus on that long of time frame for holding a position it would be an index tracking ETF. The index it tracks is actively managed and so is the ETF. Laggards are booted and replaced with the hottest up and coming players. It’s not uncommon for a stock to rip and perform well, for a period of time, then give all the gains back and do little for years afterwards. I remember trading CSCO in then late ‘90s Internet boom. It was the darling of its time. When the popped in March 2000, so did CSCO. It took many years for it to return to its all-time high after that.

Dinkmers

People were getting bullish on CSCO, then INTC, and now ORCL. What dotcom era shit stock is going to inexplicably surge next? My money's on Kozmo.com

Rav_3d

During the Internet bubble, no analyst was publishing reports about a bubble. Sounds more like 1996-1997 when they were saying the Internet was just a fad and people would stop using it and CSCO and all those other high fliers were about to burst. We then had 3 more spectacular years in the stock market.

Fauster

Right now we are in the cloud/data-center buildout wave of AI. Current small LLMs are mostly useless. Only the apple studio M3 max ultra can run not-entirely-useless deepseek models, which could have applications if custom-trained with better hardware. So, when will the buildout stop? Everyone is looking for signs of weakening demand, reduced capex, so when it happens you will hear all about it. I think everyone will go back to CSCO. Using 1998-2000 as a guidepost, CSCO started crashing when it had roughly 15% YoY growth. That's great for most companies, not great for a company with a backward PE of 200. I think if NVDA and companies see decreasing growth and it is around 4% sequential quarter growth, it's time meaningfully reduce holdings and look for boring dividend stocks like BEN. Maybe we've got another year left, maybe more. The hyperscalers are spending enormous sums on talent and facilities and these are multi-year projects, so demand is not going to collapse overnight. But, all kinds of things can go wrong in the interim. Inflation numbers are coming out Friday and all the last prints have been bad. There is a bear steepener and treasuries are priced with the expectation that the future fed won't be an inflation hawk. The fed can lower the short end, but it's the long end that determines most loan rates. If the world has no confidence in the Fed's willingness to make tough decisions to fight inflation, then lowering the short end won't juice the economy as much as it should. But, that's not a reason to be a bear. The last time inflation was hot, it was good to be in stocks. Not investment advice, yada yada. There are no cheap stocks growth stocks in this market. The semis have had huge selloffs from 2023 to near-ATH levels now, and that will continue going forward. I've also had metals as ballast, GLD, SIVR, FCX. But in a future crisis that will come at an unknown time, nothing will be completely safe.

Slightlybadpicks

Everything green except CSCO boomer ass 😤

Virtual-Moose5921

LLM’s r the CSCO Thong Song, next wave is PLTR and whatever lizard-boy throws money at

floo82

That advice works for indexes, not necessarily individual stocks. CSCO still down from its high at the dot com era, and it's a large important tech company. NVDA could very easily be the same.

Anxious_Cheetah5589

My BIL managed a group of brokers at a regional bank at the time. He was a "true believer. " I'm naturally skeptical and a student of stock market history, and saw that valuations were way out of whack. I remember a conversation just before the bubble popped. He said, "companies like Cisco, they're NEVER going down. " CSCO peaked at $80 (p/e 150) in March 2020, then lost 90% of its value in the next 2 years. It's still trading below that all time high 25 years later. Today's AI buzz reminds me of that conversation, these companies are NEVER going down.

foo-bar-nlogn-100

You NVDA bulls are dumb. China is only buying Huawei chips. US slowdown and tariff will stop hyperscalers from buying GPU. Ie hyperscalers cant recycle cash into GPU. Get out now. Its like owning CSCO at the height before bubble popped.

lipmanz

My prediction is NVDA pumps because it’s CSCO circa 95 not 2000

moorhound

Google will one day be the real life Weyland-Yutani. But for a while they're gonna be the boomer stock of tech along with MSFT, CSCO and ORCL