$-0.15 (-0.26%) Today
52 Week High
52 Week Low
7 Days Mentions
>When they were buying is this the buying that made the DOW gain like 200-300 points past 3pm a majority of the days starting in March of 2020? When they were buying is this the buying that made the DOW gain like 200-300 points past 3pm a majority of the days starting in March of 2020?
Several decades with 0 growth? I'm guessing you mean periods like the great depression in the 1920s-1930s? And with that decade you just compare the point of highest peak right before before the depression hit and when the stock market hit that peak again in 1930s? You're right if you just lump summed all your money RIGHT at the peak before the depression and then afterwards never invested again. But that's not reality. First of all we only looked at the DOW index back then as "the stock market". Which consists of 30 companies. IBM for example wasn't included in that index and was one of the best performing companies during that time. Secondly, the advice is to just keep DCA-ing during such depression. If you did that in world ETFs (which didn't exist back then), you would've only needed a year or 4-5 to break even. Not to mention you probably already invested before the great depression hit which already gave you unrealised gains. At least, I assumed you meant the great depression. If you mean another time period, like 2000 - 2013, please share. Because the same explanation of keeping up with monthly DCA applies here as well.
>NASDAQ UP 335.24 POINTS, OR 2.48 PERCENT, AT 13,874.54 AFTER MARKET OPEN \>DOW JONES UP 293.31 POINTS, OR 0.86 PERCENT, AT 34,591.04 AFTER MARKET OPEN \>S&P 500 UP 63.47 POINTS, OR 1.46 PERCENT, AT 4,419.92 AFTER MARKET OPEN ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-01-26 ^09:32:16 ^EST-0500
The one thing that study after study confirms is that timing is ***the*** most important factor when buying stocks (note that this is distinct from timing the market). The issue is in how people time things. And study after study confirms that there is one effective method for timing: purchasing stocks that have low valuations and holding them. Buy stocks that have low valuations and hold them. I don't know if the stock will go up or down, but if the stock is selling at low valuations, the probability it will rise increases greatly. Through diversification, you can average down well. This is why my portfolio is made up of things like ABBV, DOW, GSK, HPQ, HMC, IBM, LYB, TAK, etc. None of these are flashy stocks. But they meet a few basic criteria: 1. They pay a dividend 2. They're all fairly large and well-established 3. They're in industries without obvious threat of obsolescence 4. I bought them when they were trading as low multiples (typically, I like Price-to-FCF)
The DOW went into correction territory over a month ago. Then tons of SP500 companies started getting hit. The mega-caps were holding everything up. If they fell, it would resonate throughout the market. Then they started falling. This was not unpredicable.
>Markets ≠ economy. Until we actually see unemployment increasing, GDP turning negative, businesses slowing/ failing, there really shouldn't be a worry that this market correction is anything but transitory. This statement is contradictory. You say markets ≠ economy, but then point to economic signifiers to make a point about the stability of the market. As you pointed out (markets ≠ economy) it does not take a bad economy to signal an impending market crash, quite the contrary. Unemployment prior to the 2008 financial crises was very low, \~4.5%. It wasn't until after the crash that unemployment skyrocketed \~10% in 2009-2010 ([https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE)) . Same with GDP ([https://www.futuresbuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/GDP\_08162019.png](https://www.futuresbuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/GDP_08162019.png)) . In 2001, GDP, unemployment, business growth (the real ones not the pumped dot com names) were turning record profits. The point is a recession doesn't precede a crash (in most cases). The economy usually is seemingly functioning completely fine until one day it just isn't. Signs of a cracking start to show in macro areas and eventually fester until they wreak havoc in the markets. Once the markets react (fall) a recession usually follows. This can be seen in any historical graph of indexes overlaid with recessions, like this one: [https://www.google.com/search?q=historical+s%26p+chart+with+recessions&rlz=1C1CHBF\_enUS911US911&sxsrf=AOaemvIMBqRgwo7ACI\_3IgihP1xOHeO\_Ng:1643148537928&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjc3Kmn9c31AhWNUt8KHRZ\_AuMQ\_AUoAnoECAEQBA&biw=2558&bih=1218&dpr=1#imgrc=D\_DRtK6xcAQB8M](https://www.google.com/search?q=historical+s%26p+chart+with+recessions&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS911US911&sxsrf=AOaemvIMBqRgwo7ACI_3IgihP1xOHeO_Ng:1643148537928&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjc3Kmn9c31AhWNUt8KHRZ_AuMQ_AUoAnoECAEQBA&biw=2558&bih=1218&dpr=1#imgrc=D_DRtK6xcAQB8M) ) Another thing worth pointing out by looking at is the image in the link below. A bear market (20% drop in an index) generally occurs simultaneously with a recession. Going back to the 1920s, there are only a handful of bear markets that occurred without a recession also occurring. The problem? The crash usually occurs before the recession, so you won't know until you're in it. So if we start nearing a 20% decline in the S&P and DOW then a longer recovery may be in store. [https://www.kaydanwealthmanagement.com/history-of-u-s-bear-bull-markets-since-1926/](https://www.kaydanwealthmanagement.com/history-of-u-s-bear-bull-markets-since-1926/)
Yes, it will. But also it will recover and once again to all time highs. Look at chart from beginning of DOW consistently higher. I’m not seeing an end of US economy scenario yet. This is a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Not financial advice cause I don’t know if we have found the bottom just yet.
>US starting to really rip into the close \>\#DOW 34583.93 +0.64% \#SPX 4410.13 0.00% \#NDX 14404.7 -0.72% \#RTY 2030.72 -0.14% \#VIX 29.27 -0.63 [twitter.com/IGSquawk/statu…](https://t.co/DrlDwLsvRS) ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2022-01-25 ^15:00:16 ^EST-0500
>NASDAQ DOWN 248.19 POINTS, OR 1.79 PERCENT, AT 13,606.94 AFTER MARKET OPEN \>S&P 500 DOWN 63.63 POINTS, OR 1.44 PERCENT, AT 4,346.50 AFTER MARKET OPEN \>DOW JONES DOWN 377.19 POINTS, OR 1.10 PERCENT, AT 33,987.31 AFTER MARKET OPEN ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-01-25 ^09:32:01 ^EST-0500
Primarily due to the wild market swings. I want to keep my available buying power sidelined to use in defense of existing positions. Just yesterday I had to roll down many calls, then later that afternoon roll up many puts. Most of my trades are on both sides of the market (calls and puts) so adding new positions when the market moves +/-5% intraday isn't my style. NASDAQ had a \~700 point swing intraday, DOW had a \~1000 point swing intraday... at no point did I ever feel like there was a trade to put on. Option bid/ask were wide, fills were slow, short delta positions were not offsetting longs b/c of the IVR spike. Many factors. /VX is always on my watchlist, it's a good indicator that option premium is rich or cheap. IVR on individual equities is a good check as well; above 20 I will sell premium, but over 60 I tend to pass. Anything below 20, it's debit spreads and calendars. I also close premium positions when the IVR drops below 15 (win or lose I'm out). As for qualitative, the number 1 factor is liquidity. I want an underlying to have millions in daily volume, a tight bid/ask option price, and 10K open interest around ATM contracts. A poor liquidity example of an interesting play for me is VMW (VMWare). I like the price, product, etc, but it's illiquid with >$.50 bid/ask. I can put in an offer to sell a contract at the mid price, and it will sit all day and not get filled. Now what happens when the market is going wild? Those markets get even wider... When I want delta's, I want them RIGHT NOW, not at the end of the day. Hope that helps, Good luck.
YOLO'd all my savings (7k at the time) with DOW CFD puts during the first days of the crash in 2008, like a true retard. But, I used maximum leverage I was allowed, but I didn't understand margin calls since it was one of my first trades ever, and my account got blown up from a small upward correction. Then the DOW crashed for the rest of the day/week/month, etc... I would've made millions if it wasn't for this god damn correction, or even if I used a lower leverage. Good times.
> Futures were lightly positive. Then bloodbath: DOW -1000pts, NASDAQ -4.9%, etc. Only indexes that were positive were China, Taiwan, and Nikkei. The VIX was at 30%+. Europe’s STOXX 600 saw it finally inheriting the headwinds from US -> China -(to finally)-> Europe. Now with the mkt closed we see DOW, SPX, NASDAQ all positive. They were positive before the close. They were hugely down and rallied late in the day to end up for the day.
If you got thrashed by the insanity today, don't beat yourself up too bad. To put in context, this was the biggest intraday reversal for: - the DOW since 3/19/2020 - the S&P 500 since 11/13/2008 - the Nasdaq since 10/10/2008 If you won on the way down but fucked the way up, you're deffo not alone.
Today the DOW was down about 800pts. By the time I was done recording some option trades, I looked up and the DOW was then down about 1100 pts. Yowza!! Today I actually bought to close several of my Covered Call options and rolled up the strikes …. a couple of times. Today was clearly a sign of capitulation in the markets and “puking” occurred on weak hands. The DOW rallied to close 100 pts above Friday’s close. I didn’t puke but I have a helluva a headache this afternoon. Is this a dead cat bounce? We’re in for a volatile week. Hang in there, friends. You may want to trade some weekly options in ATM and even ITM Covered Calls to cover your positions while things shake out. Live to trade another day and follow Warren’s advice “don’t lose money.” Best of luck to us all.
Since 1971 money printing and more government debt is the answer to everything. Any question, any slight hint of an economic downturn, the sun rising yet another day. More debt. More BRRRRRRRRRR. Look at M1. Or M3. Doesn't matter. Government debt? Tomato soup inflation index? Housing prices? DOW? Gold itself? Everything's up at least 50 times over 50 years. Oh, except your salary of course. Sorry bout that... This crisis also didn't start with a virus in Feb 2020, it started with a 4.5 trillion Repo crisis in 2019. Barely anyone noticed or cared. Blaming a virus was more convenient anyways...
>Insane bounce into the close \>US Closing Prices: \#DOW 34366.67 +0.30% \#SPX 4410.5 +0.29% \#NDX 14509.5 +0.49% \#RTY 2033.51 +2.29% \#VIX 29.8 +0.95 ^IGSquawk ^[@IGSquawk](http://twitter.com/IGSquawk) ^at ^2022-01-24 ^16:00:46 ^EST-0500
Member when the DOW hit 20K a few years ago and it was absolutely insane that it got that high and then it went straight up to 30K and now we’re supposed to think 30K is somehow new normal? It’s not normal. It’s still very new. Shit is trading at 100x earnings. Almost all the FED stimulus measures went straight into equities, not into the economy. We put fake dollars into fake stock prices and called it the real economy, but now the real economy wants to get fucking paid.
Probably not. The shorts are selling like crazy. Banking stock fell too much for no reason, when they go back up this week, the DOW and SPX will follow. The weather is better, COVID subsides in local hospitals, so "recovery" stocks should get a boost.