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I think Trump is Getting Ready to Fire Musk - But #teslatakedown Continues
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Picked up another 5000 shares of grown rogue, see the following summary from Grok 4: GRUSF is deeply undervalued on fundamentals (trading <8× EV/aEBITDA while already profitable and cash-flow positive). Near-term price movement will be driven far more by macro sentiment and federal catalysts than by company-specific news. The risk/reward remains heavily skewed to the upside for patient investors — a move above $1.00 in 2026 is very achievable with even moderate reform progress or simple peer re-rating. Position sizing remains critical given OTC liquidity and sector volatility. Adopted
People will clown on Burry as usual but keep in mind that if his thesis is correct, he can keep rolling until it pays off. Someone will eventually knock NVDA off their 80% margins -- GOOG announced today they trained Gemini 3 using in house TPUs instead of NVDA GPUs. It's plausible he's a year or two early but so what if he is? you can roll it for multiple years and the asymmetry of the payoff makes it EV positive as a trade as long as it happens in the next 5 years. I also have NVDA put leaps and figure if I'm early I'll just keep rolling. I can stay solvent longer than the market can remain rational.
I mean I can’t stand Elmo and hope TSLA burns to the ground but they posted their highest-ever revenue last earnings. They still make a ton by selling EV tax credits, and their battery storage sector is expanding rapidly and are making a ton of money. Add the fact there are a ton of Elmo stans who believe he going to mars and somehow his shit FSD taxi aren’t gonna be shit and a million cyber sex dolls are gonna hit the market soon, TSLA still has a ton of retail investors and too make brokerage firms are invested in TSLA in their retirement mutual funds or their etf’s. Elmo also plugged back in with Trump and gov again so expect some kickbacks there. Nice tho on the comeback
Sorry but these comments have little actual content to them. Elon has been “executing” Tesla AI for a long time now and it’s lead nowhere. They’ve executed a lot of money on in-house custom chips only to put the project to ice, because it didn’t deliver actual value, and start buying nvidia like everyone else. And now they’re executing to just keep up with the competition. Freaking dinosaurs like VW now have maybe more decent autopilots, and i say that even though i drive a Tesla. At this point likely the best course for Tesla would actually be if Elon left to do something else. He’s good at finding new opportunities and executing on them very quickly, faster than others even realise the opportunity exists. However, the EV market as well as AI are no longer such fields. I’m still likely not going to short Tesla or at least not with a big amount. Even if we suspect the company is going to deprecate, predicting when and how that happens is whole another story…
Walmart earnings tomorrow: - Trading at 18.2x EV/EBITDA (most expensive in 15 years) - E-comm +25%, ads +46%… but one hiccup on margins or guidance = instant 10-15% drop - EPS vs stock reaction basically random last 2 years Full DD + charts (why I’m NOT selling puts this time): https://x.com/premiumhunterr/status/1991240808155214035?s=46
Walmart earnings tomorrow: - Trading at 18.2x EV/EBITDA (most expensive in 15 years) - E-comm +25%, ads +46%… but one hiccup on margins or guidance = instant 10-15% drop - EPS vs stock reaction basically random last 2 years Full DD + charts (why I’m NOT selling puts this time): https://x.com/premiumhunterr/status/1991240808155214035?s=46
Walmart earnings tomorrow: - Trading at 18.2x EV/EBITDA (most expensive in 15 years) - E-comm +25%, ads +46%… but one hiccup on margins or guidance = instant 10-15% drop - EPS vs stock reaction basically random last 2 years Full DD + charts (why I’m NOT selling puts this time): https://x.com/premiumhunterr/status/1991240808155214035?s=46
fully loaded Porsche Cayenne Turbo EV costs $230,000. Holy shit, that is some people's house cost lol
ODD raising 2025 guidance is baller. There are 6 weeks left in the year, and they're raising. Guiding $2.10/share on the low end. $12 cash per share, no debt. That was 11.9x EV/Earnings leading into this report. Growing 25% annually.
Giving a shit about the planet but shorting the largest EV maker on the planet? ( its well known that for a period of time bill gates had a large short position in tesla). Seems a bit contradictory…
Ian Bizek posted that ASR bought the rights to operate some new airport rights at 10 EV/EBITDA. CAAP trades at 6.5x right now, with much higher quality assets. Should easily trade over $30, just to achieve parity on valuation.
I will double down on your statements here. Tesla is not better than, never mind the best, in each category: EV (BYD), Driverless (Waymo), Solar and Storage (Any number of Chinese), AI (OpenAI and Google). Tesla might as well light billions on fire establishing a fab. There are many many car companies on earth. There is only one TSMC that can yield at sub- 2 nm. Just ask Intel, who’s been in the game for half-a-century. There is one potential scenario, which is to partner with US Gov’ and enforce export control on all things semiconductor, making Tesla de-facto US fab.
Let me make a less snarky comment. Let's say someone is a true believer of Elon and Tesla (I know it's hard but they exist). Tally up all the initiatives Elon claims to be pursuing, now including chip fab. Now, look at how much money it took similar companies to get up and running (e.g., Uber). So, if Elon is about to launch the best (which all the analysts agree it will be), AI company, robotaxi company, humanoid robot company, and chip fab company, all while running the whole side hustle EV thing Tesla has going on, think of how much money they would be spending right now? Then one must realize, the spending is nowhere near where it should be if these were truly being pursued. This is how you know it's a scam.
EV is not for everyone & everyone who wants one has one, used EV market is nadda. Robots & xA.I. is the new Tesla growth lane. Deal
Lets get real. None of that buzzword shit you just dropped matters. Tesla is an electrical grid juggernaut in the making. Nobody cares about robots or FSD. Its the solar panels, batteries, and charging stations and EV patents that matter. I am not a Tesla investor, but I am explaining to you why comparing them to GM in regards to PE is incorrect.
Ahhh yes. Tesla. The "everything company". So, they are now an EV, humanoid robot, AI, semi truck, solar panel, energy storage, and taxi service that runs diners? What can you really buy from Tesla? A hamburger and outdated EV or a new but hideously ugly truck looking monstrosity? Or maybe a power storage product that catches fire?
A slight devils advocate to Nvidia, (which I agree is extremely overvalued), is that at least they are exploring unchartered territory where people are investing off speculation of new technology. Tesla isn't exploring new technology. It's exploring a modest improvement over existing technology that every other car manufacturer has (automated driving, and EV) and have a very low barrier of entry to research and develop (self driving). Does that mean it's also not in a bubble? Of course not. But at least it's speculative compared to sheer ignorance.
Not a single industry depends on Tesla. It is directly selling to end users. If Tesla would bankrupt tomorrow, only the EV suppliers would feel the gap, Tesla has an 8% market share, would hurt the market, but not badly. So the Too Big To Fail argument is pretty weak. In reality the impact of disappearence of Tesla would have similar impact as Renault maybe. Or a bit more.
They’ve reached a point where everyone that can buy an EV has already bought theirs. So growth will be limited.
Underdog bettor, EV outweighs the cost.
My pick currently is betsson AB PE 8,6. PE for 2026: 7,7 10-15% estimated EPS growth + 5% dividend EV/EBIT: 6 (superhealthy balance sheet) PEGY ratio of 0,4-0,5 Olympic games and world cup in football coming up soon.
The price for the cars is also high, not to mention now they are responsible for maintenance. Sure its an EV but there are maintenance stuff in them still. Estimates put the car at $150k - $300k per car. Big range but still a lot for a single car.
Reminds me of Toyota with the whole EV hype situation lol
Can't wait for Americans to see their first Chinese EV, probably coming from the Canadian border. TSLA will dump so fucking hard.
Could you walk us through your assumptions in your DCF? If DUOL reaches $5B in revenues by 2035, they will likely be doing 35% FCF margins, no change from today, which is very conservative. The current EV is $7.5B. If they are still growing mid-teens at that time, fair value is more like $35B, excluding all the cash generation during the next decade. But that assumes 17% growth for a decade, whereas it's more likely to be frontloaded for the next 3-5 years and come in higher. This also excludes ARPU growth / further monetization. So today's valuation basically gives value for current users only. Seems mispriced.
Did they learn this from the Chinese EV companies that "sells" themselves cars or did the Chinese learn it from NVDA?
Stop drilling for oil! EV is the way, drill team six go away!
I know there's a joke here, but I don't get it. I'll be getting into my Kia EV in a bit and contemplating how a Lambo might be harder to drive in traffic.
Bruh, a 30k coin flip? That's an Expected Value of $15k. That's crazy EV to give up on a free roll.
As we saw with more recent isolated bubbles during the EV and green energy craze, the garbage stocks will crash back down pretty quickly, the good ones might correct a bit but anyone expecting 2000 destruction is just peddling fear
I got like 10% of my portfolio in BTC. Part of me is skeptical, but honestly I feel like it’s positive EV. I’d rather have a portion of my portfolio in it, if BTC goes up great, if not, not the end of the world
Well most people will have negative EV forever so yoloing with 50% of your account is probably more effective lmfao
Stellantis, formerly Fiat-Chrysler. They posted a $3b loss recently, and make a bunch of relatively junk products, while also making no effort to comply with upcoming emissions regulations. Jeep's only good vehicle is the ever-unreliable wrangler, losing market to the Bronco and arguable the Defender/Grenadier. All of their small vehicles have gotten a reputation as junk and their Wagoneer S EV is laughable. Chrysler is down to just the Pacifica, which I expect is low margin based on how competitive the segment is. Dodge has the....Charger? When's the last time you saw one? Also the Hornet crossover, a rebadged Alfa Tonale Ram is still out there making trucks, but almost exclusively US market, and will be in big trouble as emissions regs continue to tighten. Very few people buy them because they're good. Their commercial/fleet vehicles are not great either, generally expensive for what they are. Fiat is a shell of what it was, but still exists in Europe. Alfa Romeo is basically dead
Kodak is actually doing rather well as a company through the licensing of the name. With that aside I see a majority of these new EV companies going belly up or merging within the next decade. Their business models aren’t really sustainable and I believe that with all the resources going into renewable fuels for internal combustion engines we’re going to see more and more improvements in that area and fewer in EVs. Also the batteries add weight to vehicles which ruin tires and are costly to replace as they age where as you can run a traditional ICE vehicle with a renewable fuel with minimal if any alterations to existing design.
They do not, and never will, have more potential than NVDA. Tesla is not becoming the largest power company in the world. EV infrastructure has seen profit margins fall every single year. Tesla's promises of Robotaxi's are decades away while Waymo already is operating along with others. They will never be producing robots at any meaningful scale to drive profits. Even if they do, profit margins in cars, electricity, and industrial machinery are very low. Tesla is not even close to being in the same league to NVDA.
But it also has much bigger potential with trillions of dollars being invested in renewable energy and there's a lot of money in EV infrastructure. They're becoming the largest power company in the world and the margins are much higher than they are on gasoline.
Funko(pop), already warned. AMC Theatres (in their current guise) along with most of the MemeStonk companies (BYND, FFAI, BINI, etc..). Harley/CrackerBarrel/JCPenny/KrispyKreme/any other business who's customers are almost solely boomers and who haven't managed to find a way to attract younger generations. Basically, any company built on a singular trend - or - any company that is heavily reliant on Boomer's (and unable/incapable of re-creating themselves) will be gone or reborn. Also a whole slew of EV companies that have just been huge black holes of money, as well as a pile of SPAC backed companies that were never a viable company to begin with.
Yeah, it’s the same in the EV space, lots of innovation, pumping out new tech, new models, scaling, prices coming down. So where’s the problem? They compete so hard their distorting even their own market, that their national government is telling them to stop. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/08/whats-new-about-involution?lang=en https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/05/china-warns-ev-makers-stop-price-cutting-production-involution
Jeep EV. By the laws of arithmetic, doubling the negatives may actually give them a home run here
Nissan. They make such undesirable cars. Not sure if Nissan financial is making money with their repossession stigma the have going on. IMO their saving grace would be really good EV/ but I don’t think they have the money for it. I think the Japanese govt put together a merger with Honda but supposedly the deal fell through when Nissan management wanted to stay on.
**Before adopting intelligent monitoring, Ford’s EV battery testing facility** MSAI is just asking to use testing environments to study their IR tech combined with licenses AI/ML-tools (not their own AI/ML tech, just bought)
German car makers, almost all of them! They won’t survive EV age.
$3K+ for \~20 miles/day of solar range sounds steep unless you’re living in the exact right conditions full sun, parked outside, consistent commute. But I think you somehow nailed it with the disaster zone or off-grid camper angle, the real value might not be in day-to-day commuting alone, but in resilience. For folks without access to reliable chargers like renters, rural areas, times of grid outages, that trickle of independent power can be the difference between stuck and mobile. On the business side, I actually see GoSun playing the long game. They've spent years building portable solar products, and it seems like they’re starting with the edge use cases first early adopters who will pay more for the autonomy and then iterating down into broader markets once scale kicks in. They’re crowdfunding via StartEngine to support that, which makes sense if they want to build around a community vs just pitch to VCs. As for future upgrades yeah ! durability could be a double-edged sword. But if they layer in modularity or trade-in programs, they might sidestep the 'iPad problem.' It’ll be interesting to see how much of this becomes infrastructure vs accessory, especially as grid constraints get worse and EV adoption keeps rising.
only non-BYD sector contender with as solid a growth pattern as NIO, will be one of a handful of survivors when the great chinese EV purge strikes.
It's essentially the same thing and often the scratch-off has better EV.
Yeah I’m fully aware. How’s GM and Ford doing in the EV space? Literally produce garbage EVs. You can complain about him but can’t argue that he’s led successful companies
You should take a look at HPQ Silicon. They’re reinventing how silicon and fumed silica are made, cleaner, cheaper, and way more efficient than the old processes. This matters because silicon is essential for batteries, solar, EVs, and electronics. They’re not just talking, they’ve already produced commercial-grade material, and the Canadian government has backed them financially, which says a lot. With huge EV and battery plants being built here, Canada needs local suppliers, HPQ is positioned right in that gap. In short: big market, real tech, government support, and massive upside.
It’s literally the only profitable EV company in America and spacex is the most coveted private company. Things fail until they don’t
What Tesla's issues probably most immediately mean for the US market is less about a BYD panic and more about opportunities for non-US manufacturers to make inroads in our domestic EV market. Especially since the Big 3 seem to be fumbling the ball right now.
Tesla is an Enron level (probably higher) collapse going to happen. But Enron was in a few (2?) billion on shareholder value. Tesla is currently around 1.4 TRILLION...its just day trader greed at this point trying to ride Musk's hype. As a company, it has so many red flags...questionable business practices, out of control ceo, terrible reputation with consumers, insulted its core base (ev/green buyers), and absolutely massive EV competition now with China. This era (trump 2nd term administration) is going to have a whole aisle in the library dedicated to the legal, social, political, economic issues occurring, but Tesla is going to have a special place for many years on the broad impacts (post legal and economic policies) as well as wiping out massive investment from groups. Too lazy to look it up...but I hope pensions and retiree accounts are not heavily parked in Tesla, i'd be suing them to pull out.
Yeah you got a good point, SpaceX is way way up ahead than "product that function" And if put aside those political things and Chinese national favor things (I am a Chinese descendent) Tasla is the one and only EV I would buy
That's what I'm asking. What exactly happened that you are referring to? All I know about is the end of the EV subsidies. That would imply the opposite of what is being proposed
I do LOL. But my trade is closer to somewhat positive EV trade with some leverage. Beats the market, crazy risk adjusted return (sharpe 3-5 range).
Tesla got the lead initially in EV, but eventually lost to Chinese companies. History will repeat itself on robots !
Sure, paying low rent rather than high mortgage lets you save more. Guess what, if you get an even shittier rental with roommates, you can save even more. And if you live for free under the bridge, unlimited savings! That's like saying: I did the math! McDonalds is cheaper than eating out at other restaurants. You can save so much money by not going to other restaurants! No shit Sherlock - but you're also eating McDonalds. Joking aside, some people have specific requirements for their home. If you want nice and SFH, it's probably not possible to rent. Renting is not available in many neighborhoods. If nice houses are for rent, it's typically a temporary deal while the owner is figuring out selling. Let's assume you're able to rent the same kind of house you'd want and it's in the right neighborhood and it's not temporary. You don't have the freedom to decide on upgrades and remodels. Necessary major repairs? If you own, they can happen on your schedule and you can schedule around them. Renting? Probably means the end of your lease. If you want to rent a new build, it would be a mass produced apartment or townhome in an apartment complex. You can never influence floorplans, countertops, or really anything else in a rental. No solar power, no upgrades to EV outlet in the garage, no replacing the water heater to tankless. No adding a carport for your outdoor toys. Can't change the landscaping. Certain pets will not be allowed in any rental.
I don't think Elon is as good as you think he is. If it wasn't for the government first funding his business, and then making sure his monopoly was protected from foreign competition, he would have crashed and burned already. If the barriers of trade are lifted Tesla would crash and burn overnight. Their total deliveries for 2024 were 1.79m units. Chinese BYD alone sold 4.27m. The number two, number three, and number four Chinese EV manufacturers also outsold Tesla by a wide margin (2.18m, 4.6m, and 2.68m units). BYD also out earned Tesla by a wide margin. Most Tesla models are horribly outdated, something that is easy to miss because the competition is kept from entering the market. And to fix that we have Elon blowing up more smoke up people asses by making more empty promises he'll fail to fulfill.
You probably know more than me on these but my assumption was oklo won't be producing much till later in the decade. Their price is high for that kind of wait, but I love anything power and data center related so if you believe then you have my blessing. Truthfully I'm just a Tesla hater. I don't believe they can achieve all they say they will and i think Elon is just good at hyping things. I feel like he is building a house of cards with their expectations and he has a history of moving the goal posts. Also their EV business is threatening to be undercut by Chinese manufacturing because it turns out EVs are easier to make than they used to be. I've been proved wrong so far but I'm just staying away personally.
It’ll never happen. There’s a reason BYD is the best selling EV in Europe but most Americans have never seen or heard of a BYD
Well, depends on what you are looking for and mean by that. Company hasn't been around long, couple years so hard to tell if its an emerging company going through growth pains or some other deal going on. As far as what they do, they make some synthetic graphite to be used to power EV companies, drone batteries, and data centers. Some small contracts so far. I'm not the guy to marry but a few stocks, I hope they make millions off of it, I just want to make enough I don't have to work at wendys.
5 years ago so many ppl chasing EV stocks, zoom, mrna, roku, upst. Look at where they are now? It’s all about hype. 5 years later we’re gonna hype something else and forget about the data centers.
This is reminiscent of end of 2021. Back then we had EV hype, stocks like Lucid and Rivian mooned, before they came crashing down and bleeding out for years later. We're at the same point here with all these AI adjacent companies that mooned and have now been crashing down and will continue to bleed out for years to come.
The bull thesis is that they're about to release a proper EV SUV at a much more "real-world" price point - about $50k for the kind of trim that your average person would want. By all accounts, the R1S and R1T are awesome vehicles, but just too expensive for mass adoption. Tesla alienating lots of EV buyers in the biggest EV markets (blue cities) is just icing on the cake. If people start seeing R2s everywhere mid-to-late 2026 and the company has sorted their scaling and service models, I could see the momentum snowballing for them. So, for me, this is a long-term speculative gamble. Price target is $100 by mid-27. FWIW I was an early buyer of TSLA and I absolutely called it. Sold early once I realized that Elon was a headcase. I don't see RIVN launching into the memosphere the way TSLA has, but I think 5x current market cap is absolutely in play in the next two years. 🤷♂️
The only 2 holdings I have a lost on is VIVK, and DFLI. Healthcare, and REITs generally speaking had a good day; can't wait for tbe energy market to start its catch up aswell so I can see DFLI, and VIVK profits. Not matter what one will have to explode, ether with a push of the EV mandate to slow oil consumption; or a major boom in Oil percurement. Which lowkey is what America does every other generation.
Over 2 decades in the NYSE/Nasdaq... and I've even commented on Enron on this post. I've also written about AMD for years, on reddit and other platforms... writing articles asking people to buy when it was single & double digits (you can see the posts in my profile). There's a slight yet important difference between Trump and Musk... in contrast with Karp. Karp is not a convincing person when challenged. He even admits it during this interview. He's absolutely aware he can't build convincing arguments... so he misdirects. Trump and Musk are sales people. Karp is not good at selling anything. He's just a mouthpiece... and his job is to misdirect, cause PLTR siphons money from the US tax payer, without providing any tangible results. He brags about the military, without showing any results. Iraq, Afghanistan... and the Houthis?... Did he serve in the military?... NO. He's a shyster from New York, who studied law. He knows nothing about AI, nor engineering, nor software design and development, etc. Yet he portrays himself as an AI expert. He's completely unqualified, so he needs to misdirect. He twice mentioned "*welders, plumbers and truck drivers*" during the interview... pretending to care for them, clearly confirming he's using talking points to create a pseudo-populist stance. Karp got a PhD in Germany. He's got nothing in common with the cohort of people he pretends care for. Tesla is the #1 EV company in the Western world, with the potential for full autonomous driving. Palantir is a government contractor involved in non-kosher activities. It's NOT the same. These people are trying to convince us that we must give them more money to keep us safe. The truth is, they are a menace.
Not yet, but China is eating Tesla's lunch with EV car production so as other companies encroach SpaceX's functional monopoly with their own rocket delivery systems Musk won't have the corner on that market to himself anymore.
I'd buy it for $15 They have some cool solutions for EV batteries and for solar, even if their cars suck ass.
Look up AI sector and see if any of those companies are profitable. Look at the revenue of companies. GDP grew and it had nothing to do with AI. People are pouring billions of dollars and I dont see any growth supporting it. Very early stages. Ai is going to take over but its going to take a while to take off. People forget EV was out back in early 2000s and noone gave a shit until now
Elon Musk's charm has been eroded by his Nazi salutes and whacked behavior, while China keeps eating up his EV and Robotics market share and Chat GPT as well as Anthropic keep eclipsing his AI ambitions. The most recent rocket launches by Bezos and RKLB will also squeeze SpaceX market share. Legacy Tesla Fan Club is the only thing keeping the hype alive. That however is not sustainable.
EV:s are not the problem. The data centers are.
As another commenter said, the air conditioner load is a big problem because it is spiky. Look at the things OP listed: > A city full of electric vehicles, smart traffic systems, sensors, and always-on data centers cannot rely on a single, fragile, centralized grid. Besides electric vehicles, these are just increases in the baseline load which is easiest thing in the world for electric grids to deal with, I don't care how old it is. And there are two important points about EVs: 1. Even with everyone coming home after rush hour and potentially plugging their EVs in, they aren't spiky to the same degree as A/C. Unlike an A/C unit, charging an EV doesn't require an immediate high load as soon as you plug it in, it can change its draw over time and doesn't need a high minimum at short notice to "be useful". And besides, a lot of EV owners and some chargers will only charge at night, when electricity rates are lowest, which actually helps smooth out the demand over time, so the load is less volatile and stays more consistently in a narrower channel. Which translates to just increase base load, which again, super easy for the electric grid to deal with. 2. EVs plugged into chargers can actually support the grid, by working as a massive distributed battery, charging when there is too much supply and discharging when there it too little. If all plugged in EVs use the top 10% of their battery capacity this way, that's pretty significant. IDK how common this is in practice yet, but since OP is already looking to a future with much higher EV adoption plus smart sensors and such everywhere, lets assume this boost to the grid is realistic too.
Puts. Elon isnt focused on EV anymore. He wants to work on robots and stupid shit. The guy has no idea what he is doing.
Not really. The company is getting kicked out of the EV market
Tesla dropping 7% isn’t shocking the stock still trades like a hyper-growth tech name, so anything negative hits harder. The Powerwall recall is the bigger issue since “fire hazard” and home batteries is not a great combo. CarPlay testing is interesting too because Tesla has resisted it for years, which makes it feel like a quiet admission that customers actually want it. Macro-wise, EV demand is softer, margins are tighter, and competition is heavier. Even people who track the consumer side like Andrew Zatlin (not sure if you know who that is, just someone i follow) have been saying big-ticket demand is cooling off. Tesla’s not collapsing, but this is what happens when a high-valuation stock finally has to deal with normal automaker problems.
This is the part that almost always gets glossed over. Everyone debates EV range, AI chip wars, Tesla vs. whoever… but none of that matters if the underlying grid can’t handle the load. The U.S. grid was literally designed for a world with fewer electronics, fewer air conditioners, no data-center-level compute, and basically zero distributed generation. It’s old, centralized, and fragile and the outage stats prove it. EVs alone are a huge demand spike. Add AI data centers (which are absolute power hogs) and “smart city” infrastructure that needs constant uptime, and you’re stacking modern expectations on top of 1960s-1970s hardware. There’s a reason utilities are warning about multi-year delays for new data-center hookups. The grid is at its limit already, before the exponential part of AI growth even hits. That’s why microgrids are getting so much attention behind the scenes. Local solar + local storage + local control is the only way to avoid cascading failures. You can’t run a city full of EV chargers, sensors, and compute clusters off a single brittle backbone. And yeah, funds are absolutely positioning for this NXXT is one name that keeps popping up, but there are others in the distributed energy / grid-modernization bucket. It’s funny because even newsletters like Ian King Strategic Fortunes have been poking at this theme from the “energy transition meets decentralization” angle. The message is basically: if AI and EVs keep scaling, the grid has to evolve with them or everything else breaks first. We’re building a futuristic tech stack on a power system that predates the internet. Something’s gotta give.
> I was just pointing out this was not true anywhere. EVs pull a lot of power, more than most home solar systems could handle, let alone the cost. I think you're vastly overestimating how much energy an EV uses daily. Most people aren't putting in 200-300 miles of daily driving.
> Level 2 charging is about 7000W every hour, that's like a 24 panel system. That's not normal for anywhere in the US The average daily commute is 24 miles. Since the average EV consumes [308 Wh/mile](https://ev-database.org/imp/cheatsheet/energy-consumption-electric-car), that means an EV only needs to charge on level 2 for about an hour each day at 7000W. Most Level 2 chargers can also lower their total power output as well, if that puts any strain on the breaker. It's never once been a problem for me.
So if we go to war DFLI, VIVK, CTM, ONDS, DNN, ELBM are gonna explode DFLI (as more then half our EV batteries are imported) VIVK (as oil production during this war time in the Permian basin will likely explode) CTM (Navy Cyber security, as the largest fleet based ship we have is posted off the coast of Venezuela) ONDS (War drones duh) DNN, ELBM (Nuclear, and lithium scaling rare earth materials)
SP PE is high. Its also a load of bullshit as EPS gets pumped with creative accounting. Compare EV to FCF and we are only like 15% below dot com high and that was notorious for being the most overvalued market ever and it aint even close.
I happen to be adjacent to this subject. The short answer is no. Longer answer: Southern CA is more ready than most other areas from what I’ve seen (utility facility maps). SCE in particular has been upgrading for EV for years now. All the other utilities are still using older (smaller) wire and have just started upgrading. But this is EV. AI data centers are a different story. Their load estimates are massive compared to EV and really start to test the substation and even transmission level. Since these centers require new substations anywhere they go, it’s cheaper to build them in cheaper areas. If you want to invest in this, look for the companies that contract to build new transmission lines and substations.
They've cleared 80 million in debt, and secured 4 different partnerships, aswell as was recognized by both its markets community; and the state as a innovater/tech leader in their market. So with 47% of all EV batteries being imported, I'd argue that DFLI has a very intresting hold rn. Aswell as they expanded production, and legitimacy of the battery they plan to showcase in December. The EV mandate is gonna happen its just a matter of when it'll hit fully (2035-2050). So my money is they'll implement their tech in a variety of feilds like ondas did, and storm the market in the upcoming years. However I been with them since .25 early September as a shareholder, and I have loved their tech since 2024; and it was just a concept. Also Steve-o uses battle born batteries, aswell as a few other celebrities; its slowly getting major traction.
Sodium batteries are likely much better than Lithium when it comes to energy storage. This is because all of it's disadvantages (more weight, less energy density) aren't much of an issue for a stationary battery. For an EV on the other hand where weight is an issue it's drawbacks are much more of a problem.
No it was never designed for such a huge increase in demand. Sure 50 years ago their was plenty of excess capacity for industrial use.. When most of the jobs went over seas and home and office demand increased. It evened out over a long period of time. However AI farms, Trucking recharging stations, home heating, cooling and cooking, EV's for the masses.. All of that right now would crush the power grid. People forget the majority of your energy needs are met with Natural gas, gasoline, and or heating oil. Electricity was always the smaller source of energy. We kept using fossil fuels for homes because it was the best cheap option. Also people forget when transporting electricity the power grid loses about 30% of the energy from the generation point to the outlet in your room. That goes for EV's also. 30% of the energy is gone by the time it reaches your charger for your car. Fossil fuels are more efficient in terms of getting the energy to your house. I wish people would study the entire energy flow from the point of harvest to the point of usage and how much is lost just transporting it to the point of use. Fossil fuels are hands down still the best option.
Can't handle everyone having an EV, alone. It's part of the bear case for EVs. They're building out power for AI. We'll see what it looks like when the dust settles...
Swing and long term 80% to stocks Space: RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, BKSY AI & Defense: BBAI, CTM EV: RIVN (closer to 13-15 levels though) Data Centers: TSSI 10% to an ETF tracking the market 10% to cash
Net sales down 127M from 144.8M 12% down. Gross Profit down to 42M compare to 51M 33% down. Operating Expense:52.M down by 60.3 M down. NET LOSS 10.9M 35M cash and Debt of 25M MC=26M EV=53M over valued FAIR VALUE=0.25??
One of my smallest EV infrastructure plays ($PPSI) is reporting earnings tomorrow...expecting a flat response, bigger Q4.
Actually with the EV credit expiring there were more sales than normal... Is that baked into their EPS and revenue forecast for earnings? They may have not captured much revenue from that yet but forward guidance will be stronger
It´s what we´re heading for in my opinion. EV is the future but the boom people expected hasn´t come in the speed companies have invested for. Now there are to many EV companies for the market and especially in China several will have to disappear. Those companies which survive will dominate the auto sector in 5 to 10 years. Just like the companies like Amazon and Google who were the winners of the Dotcom crash are now part of the Mag 7. It´s what happens in every technologic revolution. BYD has a deflated stock price, but it makes money, It is the balloon which will suck up all the air when the other debt filled bubbles burst. Even now in the worst depth of a cutthroat price battle (Which is indicating the bubble and which the Beijing regime has started to reign in at) and without access to the us market BYD has earnings per share which are decent. When the dinosaurs die, the dragon will fly. Let´s hope the west can rise to meet that challenge.
What makes them overvalued? NVIDIA has a massive backlog and objectively is the leader in AI hardware. AAPL doesn’t have an AI play. Amazon prints money from AWS and is expanding in Ads, and has a solid retail business. Google and Meta print money from ads. Tesla has the best selling EV (Model Y). All these businesses have real cash flow. You can argue that the investments in data centers or infrastructure won’t pan out, but they all have real businesses at their core.
Go pull up a chart of the EV hype stocks in 2022. This thing can go down another 70%
nothing to do with NUAI. USCTF's investor presentation transaction summary link above uses a share price of $0.12 when valuing their deal with SharonAI at a $73M EV. They are issuing 691M shares. Maybe that is where UCTF was trading after they held their vote to liquidate the trust?
They’re a worldwide electric car company that has just reported revenue growth? IMO it’s a good price at the moment as I can’t see it going anywhere and with less people wanting to buy Teslas because of Elon, then one of the next high end EV down the list is Polestar
Just about every company, not just tech company, is leveraging AI in some way. Some are doing it badly or finding it's not really useful and some are using it as their entire business model. I work tech adjacent and in a space that is filled with start-ups and scaling companies. ALL of them use AI and not for mundane things like writing e-mails, or making pictures or scheduling meetings or whatever. They are using it to inspect infrastructure, improve EV charging, dynamic pricing, interior design layouts, etc, etc. Will some companies fail during this boom? Without a doubt but AI/LLMs are here to stay and they really are game changing for every company if they find the right or new ways to use them. The average person sees AI as chatbot, note-taker or making videos/pics. Not how AI is being used at all in the actual business/tech who are going all in on it.
EV extinction event? Please elaborate
KDK warrant strike was reduced to $9.28, so I wouldn't use that as a comparison. Einride is an EV truck manufacturer, in addition to providing autonomous driving, and has pre-existing commercial contracts, so maybe it'll trade higher in that regard. Someone knew about the target & was buying those warrants. If they're long, they might buy more. We'll see. Lots of institutions in this one as well.
Perfect — here’s a one-page investment memo for PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) as of November 2025, summarizing the company’s latest financials, strategic momentum, valuation view, and key risks. 📄 Investment Memo: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Date: November 2025 Analyst: ChatGPT (GPT-5) Sector: Fintech / Payments Ticker: PYPL | Market Cap: ~$75B Recent Price (Nov 2025): ~$68–70 52-Week Range: ~$50 – $82 🧾 Investment Thesis PayPal is executing a credible turnaround under CEO Alex Chriss, transitioning from stagnation toward profitable, diversified growth. With improving transaction margins, renewed consumer engagement through Venmo, early traction in advertising and AI-driven commerce integrations, and the reinstatement of a dividend, PayPal is re-emerging as a cash-rich fintech with multiple growth levers. Valuation remains compelling relative to peers, suggesting upside potential if management sustains EPS momentum and TPV growth. 💰 Recent Performance (Q3 2025 Highlights) Revenue: $8.42 B (+7% YoY) Non-GAAP EPS: $1.34 (+12% YoY) TPV: $458 B (+8% YoY) Free Cash Flow: $1.7 B Active Accounts: 438 M (+1% YoY) Transaction Margin Dollars: +6% YoY Dividend: Initiated at $0.14 / quarter (first in company history) Buybacks: $1.5 B repurchased Q3 alone Outlook: FY25 non-GAAP EPS $5.35–5.39 (raised). Management emphasizes “quality growth” and cost discipline. 🚀 Key Catalysts & Positives 1. Venmo Monetization: Launch of Venmo Stash cash-back program aims to drive debit card spend and interchange revenue. Venmo card penetration now a key monetization vector. 2. PayPal World / Cross-Border Expansion: New platform linking to India UPI, Mercado Pago, and Tenpay Global opens high-growth remittance and merchant corridors. 3. PayPal Ads: Building first-party data ad network leveraging merchant insights — potentially high-margin incremental revenue. 4. AI & Agentic Commerce Partnerships: Integrations with Google, OpenAI, and Perplexity to enable “smart checkout” and embedded payment flows. 5. Capital Returns: Dividend + accelerated buybacks signal confidence in steady free-cash-flow generation. 6. Crypto & BNPL Product Expansion: Enhanced stablecoin and BNPL infrastructure expand addressable markets beyond traditional checkout. ⚙️ Financial Health Net Cash Position: ~$3 B (cash – debt) Free Cash Flow Yield: ~9–10% Operating Margin: ~23% (non-GAAP) ROE: ~21% No material near-term debt maturities 📊 Valuation Snapshot (as of Nov 2025) Metric PYPL Peers (Avg: V, MA, SQ, ADYEN) Forward P/E ~12× ~21× EV/EBITDA ~9× ~16× FCF Yield ~9–10% ~5% Fair Value Estimate: $85–95 / share (≈25–35% upside) Assumes sustained mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins, and continued capital returns. ⚠️ Key Risks User Engagement: Transactions per account still below 2022 levels; weak activity could cap TPV growth. Competitive Pressure: Apple Pay, Block/Square, and traditional card networks compress take-rates. Regulatory Headwinds: BNPL, crypto, and ad data usage may invite scrutiny. Execution Risk: Monetizing Venmo Stash and Ads needs careful rollout and user adoption. Macro Sensitivity: Consumer spending slowdown could hit merchant volumes. 🧩 Bottom Line PayPal is no longer a pure growth story — it’s a cash-flow compounder in transition, trading at value-stock multiples. Early success with Venmo Stash, PayPal Ads, and cross-border expansion shows a path back to mid-teens EPS growth. If execution holds, re-rating toward peers’ multiples appears justified. 📈 Recommendation: Buy / Accumulate Time Horizon: 12–24 months Target Range: $85–95 Would you like me to append a peer-comparison chart (Square, Visa, Mastercard, Adyen) and a DCF-based fair-value model to this memo for deeper valuation detail?
Your nvo is my BYD. Then again I believe BYD is one of the companies to survive the EV extinction event and so I have some hope left.
Longterm investor lol The stock is so low that you might as well by more now to average down you cost. I bought at 13 and for months it was testing around 12. I’m banking on R2 but trimmed half my position with the small pop for a small profit to reduce risk given the loss of EV credits . Holding the other half for now