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I think Trump is Getting Ready to Fire Musk - But #teslatakedown Continues
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EV credit gone, next quarter will fall off a cliff (but it probably won’t matter tbh)
if Chinese EV's weren't tariffed a million% Tesla would be bankrupt
I don’t get how Tesla delivery isn’t priced in. It’s the end of the fkin EV credits lmfao
Well, this was expected. See how the open goes. Everything after 9/30 gets a lot harder for them. EV credits and emissions credits are gone and everyone with 2 brain cells knows it.
surely at some point TSLA tops out, EV credit now gone, competition closing in, seemingly very slow progress on Optimus and Robotaxi
Delivered less than last year and people are rushing to buy before the tax break ends which Ford CEO says will cut EV sales in half later. But it’s going to rally because it beats expectations.
Robotaxis don’t make any money. There is still a human supervising it. The amount of users is miniscule. EV credits ending is permanent, any pull forward demand in advance of it is temporary. Elon remains widely hated. Financials are a joke.
It’s not a car company. The EV credits and car sales are irrelevant
Lots of pull-forward and front loading due to the end of EV credits, so yeah. At least in the US. Rest of the world, Press F to Doubt.
Oof, you're in for a rude awakening if you think that's a good argument. Tesla's stock price/market capitalisation accounts for like 50% of the ENTIRE GLOBAL car industry. And they have... 22 factories. Guess what percentage of the global factories that is? Like 2%, haha. And is that because they are just so super awesome and efficient that they can dominate 50% of the car market with 2% of the factories? Of course fucking not! XD They're not even making 20% of all the full EV sales in the world, and EVs are a tiny proportion of the car industry. Basically they are sucking at EVs, sucking at cars in general, not dominating anything in the real world, barely have any factories in the grand scheme of things. If you remove the Elon cult from the picture and got a genius investor like Warren Buffet to look at the company itself, the market it's in, performance, competition, etc. they would value the stock at like $20-30. But I'll wait while you explain the stock price based on their business fundamentals...
Lol. 118x forward EBITDA is not a valuation. It is a joke. It is a cult who believes Tesla can do great things in the future, just don't know how. 7x EV/EBITDA is fair value for a car company
So when does the institutions exit Tesla and leave retail to hold the bags? Tesla will never see another profitable quarter, thats clear as day if we look at the ongoing collapse in sales and discontinued EV credits system. In fact, Tesla would've reported a loss every quarter since 2023 if it weren't for EV/carbon credits. Their robot looks like a joke compared with the competition. Their taxis doesn't work. Their so called FSD is killing people.
Did the emissions offset credits go away or is OP confusing the EV tax rebate with them?
So what is it then? Selling EVs has been their only reliable source of income, and that's gone now with the cutoff EV/carbon credits. Their other businesses are either stagnant (energy) or doesn't exist (robots/taxis/AI). There are hundreds of companies that does robots, AI and autonomous vehicles, Tesla is falling further and further behind.
It's also the last profitable quarter, probably forever. No more EV/carbon credits mean no more profitable quarters.
Ok but for what reason? is it AI innovation (which is barely happening Robotaxis, that are inferior to other autonomous vehicles but get hyped up like crazy? The EV cars sales, which have plummeted eversince Elon went batshit crazy? His meme cars that fail to meet their expectations? Elons Ketamine infuses frontal lobe making horrible decisions?
correct. This EV just launched multiple new countries. Sales is growing 100 percentage over the year and breaking even within next 2 quarter.
If you’re buying a lithium miner right before EV credits expire for one of the most bountiful materials in the world… good luck to you.
You’re definitely right that Tesla has challenges, but a lot of the framing here is off: China/Europe sales: Yes, year-over-year numbers in China look down, but context matters, Tesla just refreshed the Model 3/Y, and inventory/delivery timing skews quarter-to-quarter. If you look at trailing 12-month data, Tesla is still selling more EVs than any competitor not named BYD. In Europe, Tesla is still one of the top-selling EV brands, so “falling” needs to be weighed against a much more competitive market where every legacy OEM is throwing subsidies at EVs. Regulatory credits: This has been an overblown bear talking point for years. Even without credits, Tesla has shown positive net income in most quarters since 2020. Margins are down (as they are for literally every automaker in the current macro), but Tesla still has some of the highest operating margins in the industry. Saying their profits “depend on credits” just isn’t true anymore. Robotaxi / autonomy: Waymo has been geofenced in limited markets for years with massive CapEx. Tesla’s approach is totally different, build the tech on millions of customer cars, at scale, with real-world data. Yes, they still have safety drivers in testing fleets, but that’s normal for a rollout this complex. The value of Tesla’s dataset (billions of real-world miles, not just test fleets) is what gives them the long-term edge. Also, you left out that Tesla FSD is now running without geofencing in multiple countries, no one else is even close to that. Valuation math: Reducing Tesla’s entire future to a robotaxi ride-share P/E calc ignores energy storage, AI training hardware (Dojo), grid services, and the fact that even at “only” 2M annual car sales they’re outselling every EV startup combined. Robotaxi could be huge, but it’s not the only growth lever here. So yeah, Tesla’s stock is volatile and probably overextended in the short run (welcome to the market), but painting it as “downward spiral + only credits + robotaxi already lost” just isn’t accurate. If anything, the fact that they’re still the most profitable EV maker while ramping factories on three continents is exactly why investors keep bidding them up.
Elon was crying because Trump's Big beautiful bill kept subsidies for oil and gas while removing EV incentives, instead of having an even playing field with 0 subsidies for any of them.
EV? Tesla is a robotics and robotaxi company buddy
Everyone who will ever buy an EV has done so by now
TSLA have been slashing their prices because of fierce competition and declining year to year sales. The EV industry is literally having price war with each other, outside of EU where they tariff BYD, BYD is significantly cheaper than Tesla by about 20-30%. Even in the EU, Volkswagen has a lower pricing than Tesla for equivalent model by about 5-10%. If Tesla profit issue can be solved by a price hike by $500.... then why did they even slashed their price till they only have a 5% net profit margin?
They'll definitely beat because of front loading before the EV credit stopped
At the current prices, 23c's have a higher payout unless we pass \~28.5-29. If we go higher, the 25c's have higher EV.
Every time i post this, a rivian stock holder would reply. If you have to buy an EV company, buy bidu, tsla or qcom Each of them has good autonomous driving potential
The takeoff to 2k per share will happen within months (not years) of them taking the safety passenger out of the car. The financials on this being a reality get silly big really quick. It’s not like Waymo who are bottlenecked by their approach. Once Tesla proves their generalized approach, they have the capacity to flood every market with 4+ million cars every year until it’s saturated. The cost per mile would make owning a car a luxury choice. Delivery would be changed. Shipping. Everything. Not to mention OEM’s would be forced to adopt their tech as a license. They won’t be able to do what Tesla has done. It takes too long and costs too much. In the 5+ years it would take to hire the world’s best engineers, build the data centers, and ship the cars with inference chips and cameras Tesla would have manufactured and shipped 20 million robotaxi. They would go broke trying, not to mention they aren’t software, robotics, and Ai companies. Hell, they might go broke just trying to transform their companies from ICE to EV. They’re not the same thing and they do not have the economies of scale.
He’s said publicly many times that he wants the EV credits to go away.
What do you mean? It's a bubble. Sales continue to slide across every market, their tech is outdated compared with the competition, the CEO is the most hated man in America, massive lawsuits incoming, PE above 270, etc. On top of this the EV credit system was just scrapped, effectively taking away their entire profit margin. The share price is up like 40% over the last month, it should fall faster.
How in the world do you think EV competitors have failed when Musk's predictions went from selling 20 million non-robotaxi EVs a year by 2030 to now declining and never even broke 2 million 5 years later. In China they're getting absolutely killed, and in the US not only is there competition, but most people that would have bought one hate Musk anyway.
Well - you only take positive EV bets. Then - size them using kelly functions. If you do that, then just let the bets ride so long as you are correct about the EV (ie, risk vs reward) and can roughly price it correctly you'll just win. Never prematurely fold a winning hand cause the market memes on you.
people paying attention suspect - Tesla will beat on deliveries tomorrow - Tesla will be announcing a 'new' 'cheaper' model in the next week or two (since Fed EV credits expired yesterday)
Stole this from someone on X. Not exactly what you’re looking for but it is extremely thorough: “You are an equity research analyst. Produce a rigorous, source-backed investment memo on {Company} [{Ticker}] with a clear Buy, Hold, or Sell call. Rules for research and writing 1) Use only verifiable, recent sources. Prioritize official filings, earnings materials, investor presentations, regulatory documents, reputable industry data, and high quality media. Cite every non-obvious fact with a link and date. 2) Separate facts from interpretation. Tag each paragraph as Fact, Analysis, or Inference. 3) Use precise dates. Avoid vague time references. 4) Quantify claims. Show math for derived metrics. Use tables where helpful. 5) Note uncertainty. Call out missing data and state assumptions. Deliverables A) Executive summary (8 to 12 bullets): snapshot, thesis, rating, price targets and time frames, key drivers, key risks, near-term catalysts, and what would change the call. B) Full memo with sections 1 through 15 below. C) Appendix: source list with links and dates, data tables, and a simple operating model. 1) Thesis framing (purpose: define what must be true to create value) - State the core investment question in one sentence. - List 3 to 5 thesis pillars that would make the stock attractive. - List disconfirming evidence to test that could break the thesis. 2) Market structure and size (purpose: size the prize and trajectory) - Quantify TAM, SAM, SOM. Segment by product line, customer size, industry, and geography. - Identify growth drivers: regulation, replacement cycles, macro activity, technology adoption. - Estimate current penetration and runway. Compare against peer adoption curves. 3) Customer segments and jobs to be done (purpose: map who buys and why) - Describe mix by size band and industry. Identify buyer roles and budget owners. - Detail core workflows and pain points. Explain mission criticality. - Assess switching costs and vendor lock-in by segment. 4) Product and roadmap (purpose: evaluate product-market fit and durability) - Summarize core modules and adjacent products. Call out differentiators. - Compare depth vs breadth versus best point solutions. - Explain implementation time, integrations, configurability, and typical time to value. - Provide quality and reliability signals: uptime, incident history, mobile performance. - Roadmap credibility: stated milestones versus delivery track record. 5) Competitive landscape (purpose: position the company) - Identify direct and indirect competitors by segment and size. - Compare pricing, packaging, and feature gaps. Include switching friction and contract terms. - Summarize win or loss reasons from reviews, case studies, and disclosed data. 6) Go-to-market and distribution (purpose: test scalability of new-logo engine) - Break down demand sources: inbound, outbound, partner referrals, marketplaces. - Sales productivity: ramp, quota attainment, conversion rates where disclosed or inferred. - Role of channels and partnerships: integrations, OEMs, platforms. - Services and customer success model. Training and community as moat. 7) Retention and expansion (purpose: quantify durability of revenue) - Report gross and net dollar retention by cohort and segment if disclosed or estimable. - Explain logo churn drivers and timing. Provide a churn curve if possible. - Identify expansion vectors: seat growth, module attach, usage-based add-ons. - Discuss contract length, renewal mechanics, and price increase policies. - Include reference-call insights or credible review synthesis. 8) Monetization and embedded finance if applicable (purpose: understand usage economics) - Revenue streams and pricing model. For payments or fintech: share of customers active, GTV penetration, take rate by tender type, blended margin, cost stack, fraud exposure, and who holds credit risk. - Revenue recognition: gross vs net. Seasonality and cyclicality. - ARPU uplift from usage products. Payback on onboarding. 9) Unit economics and efficiency (purpose: test scalability with profitable growth) - CAC, payback period, magic number, LTV to CAC by segment if available or estimable. - Contribution margin by line: software vs usage vs services. - Cohort profitability and cash contribution over time. - Implementation and support cost over customer lifetime. 10) Financial profile (purpose: link operations to financial outcomes) - Revenue mix and growth by component. Gross margin by line. Operating leverage path. - Rule of 40 and efficiency trends. GAAP to cash flow bridge. - Leading indicators: billings, RPO, backlog. - SBC, dilution, and share count trajectory. - Liquidity, working capital needs, and path to FCF breakeven and target margin. 11) Moat and data advantage (purpose: assess defensibility) - Workflow depth and data lock-in. Network or ecosystem effects if present. - AI or analytics differentiation with measurable outcomes. - Integration footprint and practical switching costs. 12) Execution quality and organization (purpose: evaluate management and operating cadence) - Leadership track record and stability. Org design and succession. - Engineering velocity: release cadence, defect and incident rates where available. - Customer sentiment: CSAT, NPS, peer review sites, and community signals. 13) Risk inventory and mitigants (purpose: make downside explicit) - Macro, regulatory, competitive, operational, and concentration risks. - Payments, credit, or compliance risks if relevant. - Implementation complexity and time-to-value risks. - For each risk, propose leading indicators and mitigations. 14) Valuation framework (purpose: value with cross-checks) - Public comps table: growth, gross margin, operating margin, Rule of 40, EV to revenue, EV to gross profit. Normalize for any usage or payments reporting differences. - DCF with explicit drivers and sensitivity bands. - Cross-checks: cohort NPV math, S-curve adoption, unit economics to enterprise value sanity checks. 15) Scenarios, catalysts, and monitoring plan (purpose: set expectations and triggers) - 12 to 24 month bear, base, bull cases. Specify NRR, new logos, pricing or take rate, margins, SBC, and share count. Assign probabilities that sum to 100 percent. - Near-term catalysts: product launches, pricing changes, partnerships, market entries, M&A, regulatory outcomes. - Early warning indicators: churn spikes in small cohorts, backlog slippage, uptime incidents, pricing pushback. - What would change my mind: three positive and three negative triggers. Output format - Executive summary - Rating with price targets and time frames - Investment thesis and variant perception - Detailed sections 1 through 15 - Tables and charts embedded - Source list with links and dates - Appendix with model assumptions and calculations Quality bar - No generic claims. Back important statements with numbers and citations. - Label any speculation as Inference. - Be concise and structured. Prefer bullets and tables.
You've got it backwards. Legacy companies have failed at EVs and come up way short, and are now begging for EV mandates to be lifted. Pure EV makers are bleeding cash. Tesla continues to drop price and will eventually be obviously cheaper than gas. Their only competition on robotaxi is Waymo, which works, but is like 3X more per unit today (than model Y) and they're only adding a few thousand a year.
You're way off on this. The same thing was said when Tesla was all EV sales and people said there's no competition - which, notably, not only is there competitors in sight on robotaxi but it's ahead of Tesla in actually rendering rides - other EV manufacturers are nowhere close, years behind, etc. Low and behold, 5 years later EV sales are not only stagnant, but shrinking due to the competition.
Carbon offset/ emissions credits going away is news to me and I am going to need a source. As far as I know only the EV tax credit is going away. Totally different.
Tesla's $7500 US EV tax credit expired yesterday, two of its top sales execs left the company in the past 3 months, sales are down double digit % in Europe YTD, demand for EVs in China is extremely soft, but the stock is up 40% in a month. Economy is slowing, CEO is probably most hated human being... I could go on but it is very tiresome. I don't know when, but bubbles don't last forever and there's going to be a lot of money made and lost when it does pop.
And they just lost half their income from regulatory credits vanishing and it appears they aren't lowering prices after EV credits dropped - so those US sales will likely collapse
All EV sales were boosted by the EV credit expiration, so it seems obvious
For those who r new not the DFLI loyalist: Catalyst: The Battery Show North America (Oct 6–9, 2025, Detroit, MI) • Dragonfly will participate in this major battery/EV/energy-storage event. • Expect product showcases, , contracts,demos, innovations,announcements, OEM design wins and major partnership announcements. 2.Marine / Boating Show (Annapolis Sailboat Show, Oct 9, 2025) • Dragonfly also lists participation at the Annapolis sailboat show. to show battery systems for marine / off-grid / auxiliary power. 3. Trucking / Commercial Mobility Conference (ATA MCE, Oct 25, 2025) • Dragonfly appears in the “Trucking” category at ATA Management Conference & Exhibition in late October. • This is relevant because they r pushing into heavier duty or electrification of commercial fleets. Given Dragonfly’s strategy of expanding OEM and licensing channels (e.g. with Stryten, Airstream, Ember), any announcement of new design wins or license deals in October would be a solid catalyst. • The company already recently expanded its OEM collaboration with Ember (September). • October is a good time to piggyback new deals onto industry events (like The Battery Show) and announcing solid partnerships. The global battery market is projected to exceed $400B+ by 2035.
Yo I think their EV sales could drop by as much as 70%?
I wouldn't say he "pushed" for it but said several times publicly that Tesla would do well without them. Based on? Having the lowest cost of production among domestic competitors, I guess. Probably true that Tesla will have an even wider pricing advantage in the EV market against direct competitors, but the loss of credits and incentives has to result in higher prices for everyone. Tesla might have the least-very-expensive offering in the market going forward, but the higher net price to consumer means less total EV sales.
His logic is that he is already making EV cars. Removing the credit hurts short term but will give him a moat and prevent the legacy carmakers from being able to transition to electric.
Some US car manufacturers reported better Q3 EV sales, ahead of deliveries numbers for Tesla, that's likely why. Or Melon said something good about Trump. Who the fuck knows.
It's fundamentally overvalued to the extreme? Tesla has lost over 50% of their market shares, from 80-something to 30-something percent. There's no money for R&D, they even cut CapEx in half during Q2, which in combination with the ongoing brain drain has caused Tesla to fall behind tech-wise. The brand is completely ruined thanks to the CEO going full naz. There are several massive lawsuits targeting Tesla, mostly related to deaths caused by their so called FSD. Sales keep falling, Q3 numbers show a drop in Europe and China, USA is still TBA. The EV and carbon credits are gone, they took most of Tesla's profits with them. Tesla sell less than 0.something percent if all cars, yet have a market cap larger than the rest of the industry combined. It's a textbook bubble.
Why is Tesla up again and why doesn't the institutions dump their shares before the giga-bubble pops? Tesla has lost over 50% of their market shares, from 80-something to 30-something percent. There's no money for R&D, they even cut CapEx in half during Q2, which in combination with the ongoing brain drain has caused Tesla to fall behind tech-wise. The brand is completely ruined thanks to the CEO going full naz. There are several massive lawsuits targeting Tesla, mostly related to deaths caused by their so called FSD. Sales keep falling, Q3 numbers show a drop in Europe and China, USA is still TBA. The EV and carbon credits are gone, they took most of Tesla's profits with them.
It's up 40% over a month on norhing but disastrous news. Today the EV credit system was discontinued. It's a bubble.
Quarterly delivery numbers. Every analyst is expecting a number beat due to EV credit gone
I saw this stock when it was .14. Bought some and made few hundred dollars. I posted on Reddit that this stock will pump. Here is why. Its pure scam. Chinese EV stock company, constantly operating on massive loss. Recently hired a white CEO to run its "crypto strategy" that landed 1 billion in private funding placement. Just some random press release to pump the stock. I am going to bet they don't have anywhere close to 1 billion private funding. Take your profit and get out asap. LOL.
> So, Ford has a 30% uptick in EV sales and is trash talking the future of EV production? to be fair, that uptick wasn't normal. that was people rushing to buy before the ev tax credits expired. it's kind of like when people were rushing to buy foreign things in early april before the tariffs took effect. that increased ev demand is **not** normal and won't be representative of how things look going forward.
In Ford's defense, they have been a feather in the wind when it comes to an actual belief. I've been all ICe, then EVs got traction and they starting pouring money into changing plants to produce only EV vehicles, then EVs sales started to fall off a cliff and they immediately started shitting on the EV future and said hybrid has always been their long-term plans. Farley has been laughably moveable. I'll all for keeping an open mind and changing your position but they've done it a ridiculous amount.
So, Ford has a 30% uptick in EV sales and is trash talking the future of EV production? I get the political atmosphere, but that shifts all the time.
>[TipSpiritual1628](https://www.reddit.com/user/TipSpiritual1628/) >Thoughts on MELI ? Good time to enter? I spent 3 minutes writing the below so I'm gonna comment it even though you deleted your comment lol I've owned for close to 8 years with adds all along the way. Looking at a reverse DCF with TTM data and inputting 25% FCF margin, you'd need \~22% annual revenue growth over the next decade to justify today's price. They've grown revenue 36% over the LTM, 38% in FY24. For FCF margin, they actually hit 31% in 2023 and 34% in 2024. So change the reverse DCF input from 25% to 30% and you need 19.5% annual revenue growth over the next decade to justify today's price. If you want to look at historical valuations, MELI is trading just below their 1Y and 3Y averages on P/S, P/GP, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA. ||Today|1Y|3Y| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**P/S**|4.7|5.3|5.3| |**P/GP**|9.1|10.0|9.8| |**P/FCF**|15.3|16.8|19.5| |**EV/EBITDA**|29.5|31.9|32.6| Would I add here? Probably not, but mainly because it's my largest position by cost basis and total value.
Because every other EV at the low end relies on subsidy to make any profit while Tesla has actually been able to make profit without it for years so it’s just added to the margin. Tesla will be able to maintain a lower price than others (while still more expensive than before). Will people buy a $55k 250horsepower fwd equinox with less range or a 40k model Y with more power, range, and better features?
TSLA is such a joke lmao This Quarterly Earnings is going to fuckin RIP because theyre getting that rush of last minute EV sales.
EV subsidy ending means Tesla can sell fewer cars at lower margins. But they can still make money on EVs so they’ll gain market share in a worse industry while developing their robots to take our jobs and give us BJs. 📈📈📈📈📈😭
Expecting big numbers off the EV credits expiring
TSLA is currently up because Musk did a stock buyback. They are also-rans in all of their products and losing market share in EV sales. How could you miss these things in all of your analysis?
* EV sales surge in third quarter as EV TAX CREDITS expire*
Really depends. Using the EV lease credit allowed purchases that wouldn't qualify for the tax credit via buyouts. Certainly depends on what happens in the used market, but they can make sense
First day without government handouts in the form of EV credits
Just diversify. Buy some EFTs, buy some GICs, hold some cash. Hell, I even see some spending as investment.. like switching to an EV has saved me $500 a month on gas (hydro is super cheap where I am). I'm also looking into solar panels, improving insulation and windows in my house, etc. paying down debt will also save you money in the long run. You can't time the market or predict downturns or upturns, that why diversifying is key.
Same CEO as Blink, from nothing to EV charging leaders. If they follow same playbook this will be huge in few months.
arkas built Blink from a busted Ecotality acquisition into a global EV charging player. Same founder, now running NXXT.
The north american battery show, Dragonfly is gonna be leading several discussions; with one being around the short/long term addressing to the lithium battery manufacturing market in america (which is a large growing market with EV adaption). They also just start using their wakespeed patent to use dry electrode manufacturing, which is in high demand with tesla announcement of needing dry electrode manufacturing.
The government is shutting down and EV subsidies are over. Here's why I'm tripling my price target. - Daniel Ives
I was invested prior to the spin-off. The dual class IPO really allowed the Porsche and Piëch families to maintain control and direct ownership of the automaker via a financial holding company. Since they essentially control the company it really screwed individual holders. If VW and its PowerCo keep bleeding money to other EV producers, I could see them taking it private. I stopped following them actively but I know a lot has been written about it. Good Luck.
No more EV credits for tessler, fuck that company
Their EV’s are being outsold by Tesla and BYD in Europe and their 911 are for people who rather buy Lambo or Ferrari’s with that kind of price. I’m a number one Porsche fan but they forgot who they were selling too so I would rather invest in something else and buy a Porsche with my gains
All this red because the EV tax credits expired? Seems a bit much innit?
If you are buying a stake in an overpriced lithium miner the day after EV tax credits expire, you deserve to work at Wendy’s.
Love my EV SUV, can drive 100mph and it feels like my durango at 65mph. Handling sooo amazing
And just like that, Tesla went out with a literal whimper begging not to revoke their incentives (but begging doesn't undo legislation). Regulatory credits which made up half their income are gone since July and EV credits ended tonight. The CEO of Ford expects EV sales to be cut in half as a result before long. Europe sales continue to collapse, the US sales will fall off a cliff, the only place they can do okay still is China...but not nearly enough to prop up the company.
EV batteries aren't really their thing though
Catalysts = 1. The Battery Show North America (Oct 6–9, 2025, Detroit, MI) • Dragonfly will participate in this major battery/EV/energy-storage event. • Expect product showcases, , contracts,demos, innovations,announcements, OEM design wins and major partnership announcements. 2. Marine / Boating Show (Annapolis Sailboat Show, Oct 9, 2025) • Dragonfly also lists participation at the Annapolis sailboat show. to show battery systems for marine / off-grid / auxiliary power. 3. Trucking / Commercial Mobility Conference (ATA MCE, Oct 25, 2025) • Dragonfly appears in the “Trucking” category at ATA Management Conference & Exhibition in late October. • This is relevant if they push into heavier duty or electrification of commercial fleets. Any new design-ins or partnerships in that sector would be a positive catalyst. 4. Earnings / Results / Guidance Updates • While the official calendar doesn’t yet show a Q3 2025 earnings release in October, investors will be watching for any guidance, pre-announcement, or operating metrics. • If Dragonfly releases preliminary sales, backlog, margin progress, or new orders, those would move the stock.5. OEM / Licensing Announcements / Design Wins • Given Dragonfly’s strategy of expanding OEM and licensing channels (e.g. with Stryten, Airstream, Ember), any announcement of new design wins or license deals in October would be a solid catalyst. • The company already recently expanded its OEM collaboration with Ember (September). • October is a good time to piggyback new deals onto industry events (like The Battery Show) and announcing solid partnerships. The global battery market is projected to exceed $400B+ by 2035.
Will the govt forget to withdraw EV credits during shutdown? Calls on TSLA
There is absolutely a better strategy than holding onto super deep ITM calls. The tricky thing about options, that even the most amateur option trader knows intellectually but that is super difficult to internalize intuitively, is that they are convex bets whose risk characteristics change drastically depending on when and where you entered into the trade. That is, the market outlook you were originally expressing at the time you bought in to these calls is long gone. Now your bet is a super long delta, medium-expiration wager with little gamma - it’s almost stock-like except for the fact that it’s expiry is soon enough for theta to eat into your gains considerably more than if it were say a 1 year out expiration. The other quirk introduced by a high delta, 6 months out call is that you have considerable downside exposure to even a small correction. You must ask yourself the question: how much has my initial thesis changed now that the stock has already captured a bunch of the explosive growth I predicted? For what’s it’s worth, I’m also pretty dang bullish on HOOD. But it’s important to keep in mind that, like any other high PE tech-growth stock, HOOD has such a high beta and correlation with the general market that even a 5-10% correction in the S&P would absolutely fuck your portfolio. My take: absolutely take profit on all of these 85Cs. Then, take a day to organize your fundamental + price action thoughts on HOOD and take stock of the situation. Maybe make a chart on TradingView where you plot a vertical line at the date you got into the 85Cs (when you first decided to express your very bullish outlook). Then a vertical line now, and look at the distance and % HOOD has traversed between them. I would also plot a vertical line corresponding to the march expiration. I’m a big fan of plotting levels and times corresponding to options plays on the chart of the underlying. In my experience, my brain makes much more prudent decisions when it has visualizations to aid in digesting data. Play around with the chart a little. Maybe plot a “high confidence bull” level and a “low confidence moonshot” level. I would also plot a “small correction level” and a “shits fucked level” to see how various strikes would fare if a drawdown does happen. Maybe even go with a somewhat wide call debit instead of just a long call? Idk, it’s really dependent on your outlook on the future of HOOD’s bull run. Just for the fun of it, I played around on optionstrat and found a pretty nice +150 -180C spread expiring on 3/20/2026 that goes for ~$950 for a max profit of ~$2050. That’s a 2:1 reward:risk bet; you only need to be more than 33% sure of hitting that $180 level by march for it to have a positive EV. (Link is https://optionstrat.com/build/bull-call-spread/HOOD/.HOOD260320C150,-.HOOD260320C180) If I were you, for every 85C you had, I would buy 1 of these debits. Each 85C is worth a bit over $6K right now, each of these debits is worth about $1K. So you cut your risk exposure by ~83% but still gain upside exposure to more bull periods.
I think many of the China EV stocks I had, one morning I forgot what happened a few years ago but pretty much all chinese company stocks dropped hugely like 35-40%+
Bro the EV tax credit just expired…huge catalyst…. Dan Ives calling 600. B
People realized that government shutdown has no effect on TSLA… Trump canceled all of the EV, solar, carbon subsidies.
Guess traders remembered that those EV credits are expiring today.
Because EV credits are going away. Bullish.
Only have 6500 shares, but got in @ $3.80 and $4.50 - only recently have I learned why large $ is getting back into NIO, so decided to share their progress! Somewhat like what's been happening in tech with ORCL, INTC & DELL - but now in the EV sector.
##So here's what I think happened the past year: ##1. Retail is retarded only knows how to buy calls. This worked quite well as AI pumped. ##2. Retail has fish bowl memory, goes off and buys meme stock calls. This also worked quite well. ##3. Retail has fish bowl memory, gets rekt multiple times, also overspent on their Capital One Quicksilver card, and $1,000/month Dodge Challenger EV. ##4. Retail still buying calls but fast running out of money, slowly not working anymore as rest of market scratches head. Is retail retarded? ##---> you are here ##5. Great crash of 2025 blamed on Mango likely right before Nov erections. ##I said what I said.
I think 436 and then possibly move once EV tax credit credit sales come out
**My Trade Details:** * Ticker: NKE * Strike Price & Expiration: $75 10/3/25 * Premium: $1.74 * Total Market Value: $3k **Rationale for Trade:** *Upcoming Earnings Report:* In recent months Nike has been stagnant around the mid $70s. Based on options trading movements, people are anticipating a significant swing, I'm guessing around 8-10%. Last quarter, Nike beat Q4 earnings expectations and soared 15% in one day. Another solid earnings beat could spark a big rally here. *News Catalysts:* RBC Capital just upgraded Nike to "outperform" on September 18, for several reasons. [See Here](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/nike-stock-rating-upgraded-by-rbc-capital-to-outperform-on-product-improvements-93CH-4243907). Additionally, Nike's management has been focusing on a turnaround and last quarter's results hinted that the sales slump could be bottoming out. [See Here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/nike-s-sales-beat-signals-the-sportswear-maker-s-slump-is-easing?embedded-checkout=true). *Technical Setup:* From a technical perspective, Nike's stock appears to be primed for a rebound. In the last year its down >10%. According to momentum indicators the stock is oversold: Nike's 14-day RSI is \~21 (well below typical threshold of 30). [See Here](https://stockinvest.us/stock/NKE#:~:text=Nike%20is%20oversold%20on%20RSI14,which%20increases%20the%20general%20risk). The downside is pretty limited here as a bad earnings report wouldn't drive down the price too much, but a good one could surge it. If it's positive news, Nike could easily rally to \~75+. *Options Market Signals:* The current options pricing shows high implied volatility, right ahead of earnings (45% IV versus \~21% realized volatility). [See Here](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/NKE/expected-move#:~:text=Latest%C2%A0Earnings%3A%20Earnings%3A%2009%2F30%2F25%20). While options contracts may be slightly overpriced, it also shows there might be a significant movement coming up. **Probability & Risk/Reward Profile:** *Profit Probability:* With the current delta of the contract, it's between 30-40% chance to profit but with the potential gains really high. Historically, when Nike beats expectations, the stocks upside tends to move much larger than the drops are on misses. *Risk/Reward:* If Nike's volatility crush is smaller than implied, or the news is disappointing, the calls could expire out of the money. However, the potential reward is multiples of the risk. If Nike rallys to >$80, it could be a +400% return. This is a completely asymmetrical payoff, we're risking a little to make a lot. (\~1:3 risk to reward ratio). Even factoring in the odds of success aren't above 50%, the EV is most likely strongly positive. PS: I made the same style research, risk profile and bet on FDX call options (FDX CALL $230 9/19 when FDX was @ $225) and that just soared after the 9/18 earnings report. DM for proof.
Yep last minute EV credit purchases
With the EV tax credits going away today, I wonder how they’ll sell EVs now
Ford CEO comments bout EV sales cooked?
Ford EV sales to drop by 50% after EV credit loss. Safe to say TSLA sales will drop by 69%?
Rivian feels like one of those “could be huge, could flame out” plays. VW and Amazon backing sounds great, but if they can’t stop bleeding cash it won’t matter. Definitely not a safe EV bet, more like a gamble on whether they can scale before the money runs out
EV tax credits expiring soon, get out naaoooow !
Subsidies that are now gone. It's going to be really interesting to see the financials next earnings and Q4. I bet they move a lot of cars but make very little on them. Carbon offset credits are gone this quarter, EV purchase credit gone next. I suspect Elon made his $1B purchase of Tesla stock because he can already see just how bad things are looking and wants to keep the cult believing so they don't unload.
Lol weren't we supposed to get wide deployment of the robotaxi network by this summer? All I've seen is a pilot in Austin with safety crew inside every car. I genuinely can't believe how gullible Tesla investors are. He's not even leading AV deployments at all anymore isn't that first-mover advantage the whole thesis? BYD are eating his lunch in EV sales and Unitree will do the same for his humanoid concept. The teleoperation isn't fooling anyone (except for the Elon cult)
People are very gullible. As far as I'm aware the only reason Tesla makes any money is from government subsidies for EV vehicles.
Tesla is not the best in EV, not the best in self driving, not the best in humanoid robots, how is this stock trading at 280 p/e for a 1.5 trillion company with declining sales. All tesla products is mediocre. I like Elon but stock is super overpriced
For those not familiar: Catalysts = 1. The Battery Show North America (Oct 6–9, 2025, Detroit, MI) • Dragonfly will participate in this major battery/EV/energy-storage event. • Expect product showcases, , contracts,demos, innovations,announcements, OEM design wins and major partnership announcements. 2. Marine / Boating Show (Annapolis Sailboat Show, Oct 9, 2025) • Dragonfly also lists participation at the Annapolis sailboat show. to show battery systems for marine / off-grid / auxiliary power. 3. Trucking / Commercial Mobility Conference (ATA MCE, Oct 25, 2025) • Dragonfly appears in the “Trucking” category at ATA Management Conference & Exhibition in late October. • This is relevant if they push into heavier duty or electrification of commercial fleets. Any new design-ins or partnerships in that sector would be a positive catalyst. 4. Earnings / Results / Guidance Updates • While the official calendar doesn’t yet show a Q3 2025 earnings release in October, investors will be watching for any guidance, pre-announcement, or operating metrics. • If Dragonfly releases preliminary sales, backlog, margin progress, or new orders, those would move the stock.5. OEM / Licensing Announcements / Design Wins • Given Dragonfly’s strategy of expanding OEM and licensing channels (e.g. with Stryten, Airstream, Ember), any announcement of new design wins or license deals in October would be a solid catalyst. • The company already recently expanded its OEM collaboration with Ember (September). • October is a good time to piggyback new deals onto industry events (like The Battery Show) and announcing solid partnerships. The global battery market is projected to exceed $400B+ by 2035. Short Squeeze = • Short Interest: ~3–5M shares (~5–8% of float) • Days to Cover: <1 day on average volume • Options: • Put/Call Ratio ≈ 0.09 (call-biased sentiment) • Some unusual options activity reported (Barchart) • Options are relatively illiquid; small flows can impact prices
Catalysts = 1. The Battery Show North America (Oct 6–9, 2025, Detroit, MI) • Dragonfly will participate in this major battery/EV/energy-storage event. • Expect product showcases, , contracts,demos, innovations,announcements, OEM design wins and major partnership announcements. 2. Marine / Boating Show (Annapolis Sailboat Show, Oct 9, 2025) • Dragonfly also lists participation at the Annapolis sailboat show. to show battery systems for marine / off-grid / auxiliary power. 3. Trucking / Commercial Mobility Conference (ATA MCE, Oct 25, 2025) • Dragonfly appears in the “Trucking” category at ATA Management Conference & Exhibition in late October. • This is relevant if they push into heavier duty or electrification of commercial fleets. Any new design-ins or partnerships in that sector would be a positive catalyst. 4. Earnings / Results / Guidance Updates • While the official calendar doesn’t yet show a Q3 2025 earnings release in October, investors will be watching for any guidance, pre-announcement, or operating metrics. • If Dragonfly releases preliminary sales, backlog, margin progress, or new orders, those would move the stock.5. OEM / Licensing Announcements / Design Wins • Given Dragonfly’s strategy of expanding OEM and licensing channels (e.g. with Stryten, Airstream, Ember), any announcement of new design wins or license deals in October would be a solid catalyst. • The company already recently expanded its OEM collaboration with Ember (September). • October is a good time to piggyback new deals onto industry events (like The Battery Show) and announcing solid partnerships. The global battery market is projected to exceed $400B+ by 2035. Short Squeeze = • Short Interest: ~3–5M shares (~5–8% of float) • Days to Cover: <1 day on average volume • Options: • Put/Call Ratio ≈ 0.09 (call-biased sentiment) • Some unusual options activity reported (Barchart) • Options are relatively illiquid; small flows can impact prices
The Battery Show North America (Oct 6–9, 2025, Detroit, MI) • Dragonfly will participate in this major battery/EV/energy-storage event. • Expect product showcases, , contracts,demos, innovations,announcements, OEM design wins and major partnership announcements. 2.Marine / Boating Show (Annapolis Sailboat Show, Oct 9, 2025) • Dragonfly also lists participation at the Annapolis sailboat show. to show battery systems for marine / off-grid / auxiliary power. 3. Trucking / Commercial Mobility Conference (ATA MCE, Oct 25, 2025) • Dragonfly appears in the “Trucking” category at ATA Management Conference & Exhibition in late October. • This is relevant because they r pushing into heavier duty or electrification of commercial fleets. Given Dragonfly’s strategy of expanding OEM and licensing channels (e.g. with Stryten, Airstream, Ember), any announcement of new design wins or license deals in October would be a solid catalyst. • The company already recently expanded its OEM collaboration with Ember (September). • October is a good time to piggyback new deals onto industry events (like The Battery Show) and announcing solid partnerships. The global battery market is projected to exceed $400B+ by 2035.