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I think Trump is Getting Ready to Fire Musk - But #teslatakedown Continues
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Your 1-2 years to late on BYD. These EV companies are in a very competitive market with very low margins.
Stocks that CAN 10x plausibly from current values are stocks that currently have major flaws that can be potentially fixed. Or have major R&D that is large enough scale to make them 10x. Moderna could do so. Their goal has always been to make customized mRNA vaccines to target specific tumors. If they succeed, that would likely be a 50x. Volkswagon...if cheap Russian gas returns to Eurooe, and they get their EV program straightened out the potential is there. Probably wont, but plausibly could.
Because most chinese stocks will be undervalued by the stock market, partly because investors can’t really wrap their head around that China is a socialist country with different priorities, which is reflected in their companies. For instance one investor wrote that Chinese EV maker suck because they produce too much cars and flood the market by selling them to cheap, creating problems with european nations. If you accept that they have other realities with some advantages (like state backing), you evaluate them differently.
A Chinese fly by night EV outfit isn’t exactly something that instills confidence in people.
I am in the middle of the most insane under EV stretch ever played in live poker and I am losing my fucking mind Ports also in the shitter
Dont forget they are building two factories in europe! Dont forget they are very far with EV trucks! Dont forget they are producing EV big workmachines. Its wat bigger then just their cars Imagine their ev trucks how populair that Will be! Every company would want that, it will saves them so much money! Especialy when self driving. And Dont forget: the ceo is a professional and not a nazi
China has no intention to crush their EV industry. If anything the CCP has put out stern warning for the price wars initiated by byd. The Chinese want multiple winners, not just single BYD dominating the local and international market.
It largely depends on your return horizon. Over a long term fundamentals should drive stock prices but of course any long term modelling of fundamentals has to consider "black swan" type events. If you're modelling a miner and free cash flow is great, you have strong supply demand dynamics to support the underlying specie, management is sound and maintains good operating margins, EV/ebitda, etc, then things might look great until some country nationalizes your mine or some new technology comes along that completely alters the landscape. Over a shorter horizon, macro forces and volatility can absolutely wreak havoc on any predictions. Modelling a forward risk/return distribution is easier, though not without issues, because you are indifferent to path dependency. So if you want to calculate VaR, CVaR, reg cap. or the like it's a much easier problem and even then it's still challenging because your estimated return distribution will almost certainly not match the realized one. So you look for measures to assess your models, like VaR exceedances. But to model the actual path that a stock takes or even a narrow envelope is far more challenging and any predictions are best viewed with some healthy skepticism.
Oil car company stock usually bad. Why do people think just because it is selling EV it'll do much better. I think WeRide have 1000 robotaxi and the marketcap is like 4 billion. While tesla have 10 robotaxi which use safety operator is suppose to worth trillions. Robots have been used for decades. No robotics company are worth that much and somehow tesla who just started a couple years ago is suppose to worth billions.
BYD is one of the highest subsidised companies in China. I would wager with the specific intent to crush the rest of the growing EV market. Their cars are good, but the prices are borderline criminal. Even Chinese companies couldnt produce something for that cheap abd at that quality.
exactly. even if they invent an EV with 1000 mile range, the US would just find a reason to block them to ‘protect american business’.
Tesla has 0 hold on the world outside the US. Been this way for a while. They’re prohibitively expensive and aren’t even built that well. The KARS etf has done pretty well this year but I won’t invest in individual EV companies personally
Buying an EV with a massive range, when 99% of your trips are under 50 miles, is akin to buying the 1TB iPhone storage option when you use less than half of your current storage at 256GB.
I just bought VOLT because I do believe that energy demand will rise so fast with IA, EV and Bitcoin that it will need massive investment in the sector.
❌ What They Got Wrong 1. Market size is way too low They start with $300M annual graphene sales as a baseline. That’s extremely conservative. Most credible reports (IDTechEx, Grand View, Markets&Markets) put the graphene market already at $600M–$800M in 2023–2024 and forecast it to grow into the $2B–$3B+ range by 2030, with aggressive forecasts going much higher. By anchoring at $300M, every downstream calculation is artificially capped. 2. HydroGraph’s potential share They assign HydroGraph only a $120M total addressable market (TAM) in high-purity powder. That’s almost certainly too low. Batteries, supercapacitors, and conductive inks alone could exceed that figure. For example: Batteries: Just a small penetration into EV anodes or cathode coatings could be worth hundreds of millions annually. Conductive inks & coatings: Large addressable market, not a $100M-ish niche. By limiting HydroGraph’s TAM to ~40% of $300M = $120M, they’re ignoring much bigger growth. 3. Valuation methodology They assume HydroGraph could get $48M EBITDA on $120M TAM, then apply a 10× multiple → ~$480M valuation. That’s again very conservative for a deep-tech / IP-rich materials company. Comparable advanced materials companies can get 20–40× EBITDA multiples if growth potential is strong. They also ignore royalty/licensing models (HydroGraph has hinted at this), which could drastically expand margins and revenue scalability. 4. Dismissal of purity impact They suggest that lower-quality graphene is “good enough” for bulk applications and that HydroGraph’s ASU test data isn’t special. That’s only partly true. In mass-market concrete or paint, yes, cheap graphene can compete. But in energy storage, composites, electronics, purity and defect structure matter a lot. HydroGraph’s ability to consistently deliver high Sp² bonded, defect-controlled graphene is a differentiator. They downplay that. --- ⚖️ Bottom Line This Reddit write-up correctly identifies the segments HydroGraph can and cannot dominate, but drastically underestimates market size and thus potential revenue. By pegging the entire graphene market at $300M and HydroGraph’s realistic TAM at only $120M, their $48M EBITDA projection is far below other analyses. More realistic projections (using $2B+ near-term market growth and considering EV batteries, inks, coatings, and biosensors) put HydroGraph’s TAM in the hundreds of millions to billions, not just $120M. So: their segmentation = good, but their market/revenue math = way too low.
Tesla isnt even the best EV in america
Silverado EV can power your home during a blackout.
PSTV needs evidence that its Rhenium-based therapies are moving from academic promise into revenue-generating reality. **MVST** must demonstrate real-world conversion of growth guidance into operational efficiency and commercial traction. Both are at inflection points—but their sustainability lies in execution, not metrics alone. **PSTV (Plus Therapeutics)** * Analog: Think of **Delcath Systems (DCTH → DCTH pre-approval years)** → sat in limbo for ages on a niche delivery technology (hepatic chemo delivery), sustained on grants and slow clinical progress. Only when it nailed a narrow approval did it “cross the desert.” * PSTV’s path mirrors that “grant-sustained valley of death.” The comparative insight: 95% of players never cross. The a-ha moment is spotting **when the market sees “de-risking”** through a partner/licensing deal (like Delcath finally did). * Comparative cluster: orphan oncology plays that survived → KURA, TRVN, DCTH, PLX. **MVST (Microvast)** * Analog: **QuantumScape (QS)** early narrative cycle — huge hype → DOE entanglements → execution mismatch → trough of disillusionment. * MVST is in that post-DOE-pullback valley now. The analog says: *companies that crawl out don’t do it with hype, but with hard contracts & margins.* * Comparative cluster: BLNK (early EV infra promise vs reality), QS, FREY.
The expected value of debit spreads is superior to buying naked options. I’ve paper traded debit spreads day before earnings for a long time now, and it outperforms buying naked options. You don’t just want to buy debit spreads for every earnings report though. Shoot for those with a high EV & solid risk/reward
To be honest, after those years, looking back, I could say one thing: Forget about the price charts, just learn how to value a company fundamentally The aftermath of Nio and Palantir tell this story exactly: 1) NIO largely capitalized on EV hype of 2020 - 2021. But NIO's strategy (large capital expenditures from the beginning) to profitability was flawed and had poor execution 2) But Palantir just focused on its core products Gotham, Foundry, Apollo. It's proven that data was still valuable monetarily. And it made analytics quite easier by integrating messy and siloed data into a convenient platform. I remember reading in 2021, about 1 data scientist arguing that Palantir is going to take his job, so he buys Palantir to hedge his career. He said that before the rise of Palantir, a lot of analytical data was in Excel and .csv files and you had to use tools like Python / power BI to analyze and interpret it. But Palantir's platforms are taking care of all of this work in a more automatic fashion. They also aimed niche in the beginning (producing intelligence platform for the government) and later started to expand into the private sector If you look at Palantir's stock, you can notice it was low and stagnant between March 2022 to May 2023 but then started to grow significantly on November 2024. This rise cannot be explained by the price action. Or even by the order flow data. The company by that moment just started to look like a good business consistently delivering good profitability results, and that's it. Palantir's deep interconnection with CIA and the rest of the US government, makes it a lot easier. That could also be a reason, why Anduril might have a bright future. This is quite ironical to be honest, because with Palantir's being a software with large profit margins, and NIO's deep tech physical product with negative profits margins, I still kinda like deep tech more than software. But I guess these 2 companies would out of the scope of my attention anyway, if I were a large VC before they went public So, on an additional note - It would be really useful if you learn how to value private companies from a VC/PE prospective, before you move on to public companies. >"We take private equity approach to public markets" \- is a thing
Sometimes you get lucky with these or you were just right before everyone else. The night that NIO announced their new budget EV SUV I was the only bid on the book for a call, ended up getting a 200%er right at market open as the volume and price action came in. Do I think this is the same situation? Prolly not but you literally can't sell it right now and there is time for a move in the underlying. That far OTM and you'll need a catalyst at least.
He’s most likely talking about RVSN. It was pumped hard and had a history for some reason of jumping early in the new year. To be fair, they did win smallish contracts in a foreign country but this mode of transportation is slowly dying even when “electric” trains were the first true EV’s. I had a small position myself but got out after a few months when it started to dip day by day. I have my own story about penny stocks I could share where I made over $100k in December 2024 and watched them all bleed off into oblivion. This also coincided with zero interest rate cuts in close to a year at this point. Lower rates = lower cost to borrow for small companies. There are some winners if you can think outside the box, however 95% you can classify as a dilution filled dumpster fire, pump and dump, and short sellers playground.
Everyone has the baseline of what’s normal to them. People who make 500k a year can easily blow through 20k a day trading because it’s 4% of their yearly income. If someone makes 50k a year, they’d be spending $2000 on a trading day loss. Yes, it’s significant, but it won’t ruin their life. The same thing that cause these crazy percentage returns is often the same thing that causes crazy losses. If you look, they lost 167k in one day on a trade. Based on the average profit days, I’d say they have leaps on expensive stocks that have relatively been going well. The easiest answer is the shit that causes the screenshots you see is also what causes people to lose long term. This is essentially a scratch off ticket, just slightly better odds, but a 100% expected negative EV play.
Apparently their EV sector is also at extreme over capacity and there is not that much demand. Like there are used cars with 0 kms being sold. Countries are becoming protectionist and it does not help China has pissed off so many countries with their behavior. Everyone is suspicious of them now.
Buying an EV with a massive range, when 99% of your trips are under 50 miles, is akin to buying the 1TB iPhone storage option when you use less than half of your current storage at 256GB.
Just fyi, in the UK, the infrastructure of EV charging stations may was well be nonexistent. It’s not happening here. Taking away the EV credits soon and the sur charge into London to end soon as well. What takes 3 hrs to London took 11 hrs because of slow charge and the lack of charging stations from Wales to London. Changed my car to hybrid.
Might buy an EV but no home charger and don’t plan to use any charging stations so I’ll just get a good 400 mile experience and then leave it where it dies
Walmart adding EV charging to all their lots right as EVs are clearly dying off. Every EV charger thing by me is never used and spider webs all over it. Puts puts puts
WWR isn’t profitable yet, but here’s why I’m interested long-term: • Strategic sector: Graphite is critical for EV batteries and defense supply chains — U.S. production is limited, which could give WWR a niche advantage. • Asset progress: Kellyton Graphite Processing Plant is ~85% complete, with commissioning underway. • Potential contracts: They’ve already produced >1 metric ton CSPG for customer trials, and management is seeking offtake agreements. • Financing: $150M debt facility + interest from EXIM Bank reduces funding uncertainty. It’s speculative, yes — but my position is based on the idea that if they execute, the valuation could expand dramatically from here.
I would argue that the DRM and drive by wire are very much driveline. And to me part of ownership is right to repair. If i can't fix it how I want, Electric motors are easier to maintain until there is a critical failure. Rewinding or repairing a commutator can be a bear. You have to be really good with CANbus controls and microcontrollers to do any sort of systems repair. The transistors used are hard to replace and cannot be made in a home shop. Look at fisker, if you think that the licensing and handshakes that electric cars do aren't part of the driveline, you're missing a very key part of working with mechatronic systems, there are so many different communication protols and firmwares that you need access to. Vintage petrol- I'm rebuilding one from scratch in my home, it's annoying, but I can make/repair any mechanical system with a mill, a lathe, and a welder. I'm shoving a different engine in and just needed to modify bell housing and engine mounts (and some light regearing) It's significantly easier than working on more modern cars ( and I also have done that). Also, there are no systems to shut the car down, like crash sensors. It will run until it physically cannot. Fuel- You can refine alcohol very easily and convert an engine to run on that. Petrol, if you find an old oil pump, you can pretty easily distill it down, and make up for the lack of chemical stabilizers by soaking lead ingots in the gas to make it (leaded) and help prevent rod knock. If you have a solar panel, charging an EV would be easier, but if you don't, then it would be a nightmare to build a regulated power generation site. Building batteries is getting easier but not something that can be done without access to purchasing lithium cells and a BMS. Other notes: Cars that rely heavily on plastics are annoying because the plastics inherently fatigue and cannot be easily patched like steel can. pre 1980s cars have been aging more gracefully because of this.
Did the same thing with motorcycles back in the day Harley was struggling so they throw tariffs at the problem, but all it seemed to do was make Harley’s be stagnant and now they suck and no one buys them. Tariffs aren’t the answer, investment in our universities (for EV tech research) and an encouragement to our companies to get with the program or fail should be implemented
So Tesla builds the worst truck ever, is getting screwed internationally, can't compete with BYD battery tech, is pivoting away from AI, is hiring drivers for its self-driving robotaxis, is getting undercut by fucking **FORD** now that they're trying to enter the budget EV space, and also built a single hilariously bad Jetsons-ass diner. How is this company still in the 330 range?
When can I buy a cheap chinese EV?
We already have luxury car brands and they too are adopting EV tech. A strictly ICE maker would sell like a 100 cars a year. Brands like Benz, BMW, VW, Bentley, RR and others can not afford to do that. Chinese EV aren't going to takeover fully, at some point the western carmakers are going to stop sitting on their hands and make affordable EVs. Right now they're going to milk the ICE train until it runs out, they've made investments into building factories for it.
I firmly believe that the "everything is expensive" crowd just doesn't look at enough names. OPRA: rule of 40 web browser trading at 16.5x earnings. Also pays a 5% dividend. NXT: utility solar isn't as rough as residential, and this gem is trading at 14.7x earnings. ODD: cosmetics name with 25%+ annual growth, trading at 22x EV/earnings. That's not even counting names with cheap forward earnings like CRMD (6x) or ABL (7x). Like Peter Lynch, turn over rocks.
Not sure if troll or retarded, but: 1. Sales have collapsed, down as much as 86% last month lmao. 2. They cut CapEx by 50% just to stay green during Q2. 3. Top execs and engineers are leaving, stalling their projects. 4. They ditched their chip venture, a few billions up in smoke. 5. Their latest products have failed massively. 6. The American EV-Credits will be gone by the start of October, effectively doubling the leasing cost. 7. Their "energy business" has stalled. 8. Their so called robotaxis doesn't work, they'll need to rebuild it all, both software and hardware. Good luck retrofitting millions of cars with the necessary hardware. 9. Multiple lawsuits related to their so called FSD killing people. 10. The absolutely moronic CEO is getting a bonus payout of $29B, that's more money than Tesla has ever made lol. 11. Other companies are running laps around them when it comes to autonomous driving and humanoid robots, but fanboys live in a bubble where competition doesn't exist. 12. The Dems will slaughter Tesla/Elon if/when they gain back control of congress. 13. They have a PE of 200, which can be compared to Google's 20. It's a huge fucking bubble ready to pop.
Yeah so true and your wages dont seem to be rising all that much either. Then the numbers also aggregate for all states together so you might be even more screwed in certain states whilst others have it way easier. As a European we have some inflation too but the wages also increase so you dont feel it as much. Our $2.50 E10 gasoline per litre is killing us though, hence the EV push last decade.
lol no they aren't, they were first in the EV market which tricked retards like you into thinking they're invincible. They can't even sort out climate control, lane assist or adaptive cruise, their cars area made from cheap plastic and the panels are literally falling apart. They have more recalls than the rest of the industry combined. With sales/profits collapsing they can't keep wasting money on side projects. You know they cut CapEx by 50%, right? Even if they managed to release some tacky robot people wouldn't buy it, the brand is toxic and the retarded CEO has managed to alienate both sides of the political spectrum. You're just in a cult, sad.
An edge leads to positive EV but positive EV in itself is no edge
I drive an EV so never pay attention to gas prices. I drove by a station today and gasped. It was $4.59 a gallon.
Try it and report back if you actually think you can do this strategy. Others mentioned that the odds of your success in this endeavor are statistically almost 0% due to the width of spread of the bid/ask. the most liquid options with the best spreads are SPX 0DTE and maybe XSP. You are better off trying to scalp a particular direction where you hit a pre-determined take profit %. Find a strategy that is positive EV. There are strategies that have asymmetric risk where return on risk is a multiple of the debit paid. You wouldn’t have to rely on this 1% stop loss idea.
Well literally the number one EV company right now is American, but I get what you mean
EV market is dying. All of them are reporting reducted earnings quarter after quarter.
No they absolutely caused some amount of inflation that's why washers and dryers are nearly double of what they used to be. Biden even added some of his own tariffs to China like EV batteries.
Tesla had a lucky day at the casino by being first in the EV business, retards like you act like that'll always be the case (it's not). Their PE is above 200, their sales have collapsed across the world, the EV-credits are going away by October effectively doubling the leasing cost, their (fascist) CEO is getting a $29B bonus payout, their taxi-venture is a farce, they're shutting down factories due to lack of demand, etc. You're in a cult, I'm gonna eat popcorn once the bubble bursts.
Anyone follow YALA? Little online company that is focused on the middle east and Africa. Seems insanely cheap, even with geopolitical risk. Less than 5x EV/EBITDA with a dragon hoard of cash.
Man, I just wanna buy a Chinese EV for the cheap. -Sent from my Huawei
You can always tell an idiot investor by when they start using P/E to value Amazon. Here’s a hint - EV/EBITDA and P/OCF are much better metrics for this juggernaut. And yes I hold the stock and have done for ten years now.
Only thing holding them back was EV… they making moves
Somehow I made more trading a bankrupt near-delisting penny stock than the Ford EV announcement. What a weird market.
If the only options were cash under my mattrass and bitcoin, you may have a point. However like most people with any money to save I invest it or at least keep it in a HYSA. I know that my dollars will be worth a little less in 5 years, but am reasonably sure that it will be only a little less. With bitcoin, it may be 30% or a 100% more but it also could be 70% down, who the hell knows. Having my money be predictable is worth it to me (since my actual savings is in inflation resistant assets). As for the environment, lots of people are adopting EV's especially in china and europe. In norway they are over half of new cars sold. The US will take longer but it will happen eventually. That is not the adoption I am talking about. it is not used to do anything other than an investment, The vast majority of bitcoin "users" are in it for line goes up. If that ever stops happening they will be out--nothing else is keeping them in. For bitcoin not to crash it REQUIRES near infinite growth. $120k is a crazy high valuation, for sure, a lot of money is tied up in it so there are a lot of vested interests that may prop it up for a while; but dont kid yourself, there is no equilibrium state possible for bitcoin over the long term because there is no reason to own it other than to make money. Thus it is in a perpetual inflating cycle or deflating cycle. If people lose confindence in it, it could drop extremely fast and never recover. people could move on to an alternative cypto coin that is cheaper, faster to move or more private. There is literally nothing actually special about bitcoin that would prevent that from happening. in our society if something gets a reputation for making it easy to lose your life savings by participating in something, most people stay away. It does not matter that you want to blame the victims of bitcoin scams. It is bitcoin's problem if it wants to expand. Unless it is dealt with, most people will simply not own any bitcoin ever. that is the hard cap I am talking about.
AAPL building robots now? Wtf happened to their EV iCars
Yeah, if you're actually trying to get a worthwhile investing strategy out of this, that isn't the right approach. You'll get one portfolio that gets the luckiest, and then the others will just make poor-EV, high-risk plays to give them a chance of catching up.
https://www.reddit.com/u/External_Nose3848/s/EV5FkPPYp4
https://www.reddit.com/u/External_Nose3848/s/EV5FkPPYp4
I said that they’re unprofitable and inefficient. They could sell very well in somewhere in a market with high energy costs and very short commutes. Even in your response to me, you just talk about subjective features. You need to be looking at EV specific margins and, more importantly, watt-hours per mile. It doesn’t matter what it looks like or how many features they have if they have too little range to make the average customer comfortable and selling them hurts balance sheets. All of that also ignores that there’s still no clear second place when it comes to generalized autonomous driving. (Please don’t “Waymo“ me, I’m plenty qualified to compare their technologies and their business models.)
Amazon already has 1,000,000 robots in warehouses. Zoox is an add-on consideration for Amazon’s overall valuation, like Waymo for Google. Kuiper literally just went up and has quite literally not had the chance to show revenue contributions, just cost in free cash flow loss. Drone delivery is not real yet, I’ll give you that. Tesla’s car business is in decline due to loss of EV credits and ex-US adoption of Chinese EVs. Robotaxi exists and is operational, sure, but is hyped as savior of the company despite being a relatively small operation at this point. Robots have only been shown when controlled by humans (lmfao). Space??? You don’t get to access the profits of SpaceX. Instead, you’ll pay your CEO more money than the company has EVER made in profit in one singular pay package to get him interested in being a focused CEO again (spoiler: it wont even work). Tesla is a clown show and one day, will have to face reality. I can’t tell if you are pro-TSLA or just pointing out that buzzwords are not good for evaluating if a company is overvalued. But TSLA is in a leauge of its own in terms of reliance on realization of hypothetical endeavors.
Thanks for the input. I am not downvoting, i genuinely want to hear different takes. I am curious, have you tried a Chinese EV? I haven’t but a friend of mine living in China has and actually owns a BYD EV. He told me that in the past the EVs were bad quality and looked cheap. But the new ones are great, they even have features that the Tesla ones don’t (he told me a couple of features and that is why he opted for a BYD but for I cannot recall right now). Another data point is that if the Chinese EVs are as inferior as you say, they wouldn’t take so much share in Germany.
>Time to stop saying he diluted for nefarious reasons and/or personal gain But Tilray is diluting for nefarious reasons - they are diluting for working capital which is the worst kind of dilution. Also diluting to pay down debt is bad for shareholders - EV stays the same and equity holders own less of the company Have a read: [https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1hz2iik/tilray\_brands\_announces\_atthemarket\_program\_where/](https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1hz2iik/tilray_brands_announces_atthemarket_program_where/)
I’m not going to go into detail (because I don’t really have supporting materials handy and I’m going to be downvoted to hell), but the post ignores the products, for one. ‘An EV is an EV’ doesn’t align with the reality of this industry (I know you didn’t say it, but your DD heavily insinuates such). For example, there are a few Chinese EVs with the acceptable efficiency, but they aren’t verifiably profitable - especially when the worker protections of the west are applied. Another example, you use EV share as a metric to talk about a company’s EV health, that’s a huge analytical mistake. Last example: you seem satisfied with GMs EVs, but they’re subpar in not only the normal GM way (weak plastics and a dozen companies’ protected software in the car making many repairs impossible or wildly expensive), but they’re also about half as efficient as the competition. This means they rely on comically large batteries relative to vehicle size and performance - this matters for several reasons. These aren’t things that can be solved in a year or even two - and maybe they’ve finally started being honest with themselves and have a huge program behind closed doors, but I doubt it. Lastly, and this wasn’t in the post, but I have to mention it: the CEO lied about their plans multiple times on national TV (which was extra wild because GM’s own plans debunked her claims **before she made them**). The plausible denial she thought she had wasn’t plausible at all to anyone that knew anything about EVs and was keeping up with the industry/GM plans. Then old Joe went and made us look like idiots with the “you led, Mary.”
It’s at like 1000x EV/EBITA ur a dumbass. Puts
I will stick to $ABAT because US gov supporting them a lot. CEO is also ex R&D manager for EV battery in Tesla.
I will stick to $ABAT because US gov supporting them a lot. CEO is also ex R&D manager for EV battery in Tesla.
There was an EV bubble just 4 years ago. Look at WKHS, RIVN, NIO, CHPT etc. These companies paid alot of youtubers 10-50k a video to promote the stocks and made alot of false claims and ALOT of people invested and lost money, myself included.
There’s a lot of value metrics you can use including PE and the more traditional Price to Book or EV metrics like you mentioned or free cash flow metrics. The important part is to know what adjustments are being made to earnings for example. Even similar companies in the same industry may adjust earnings differently so it can be hard to just look at a PE and get a ton of info out of it. Price to book is the original value metric used by Fama French but it can be hard to compare now too since many companies especially tech and software companies have low book values because they don’t have many tangible assets. They do have a high amount of intangible assets though (software, algorithms, user base, etc.) which are not always fully reflected in book value. A lot of newer funds and ETFs have recognized this so when looking for value products, look into how they define value and if they take a sector neutral approach. Traditional value funds will be heavy financials and energy for example so these funds can become sector bets more than anything.
Interesting. I've heard that EV/EBITDA is a better all around metric, but I'm sure it depends on the industry. Are you saying more businesses are using leverage today than was common previously? If I want to understand how the meaning of PEs have changed over time, what would be a good resource for that? Thanks!
New to buying IPO’s. I forgot to get in on FIG. But I requested 30 shares of BLSH because I think it’s a +EV gamble. Anyway, there’s basically a 0% chance of getting shares at launch, right?
Looking for advice on what to do next. Long story short I made some poor investments on mostly EV stocks NIO HYLN CHPT BEEM etc. I’m currently down about $16k and the current value of the stocks are about $8k. I’ve been holding hoping for them to come back or at least bounce so I could mitigate some of my losses. I’m trying to figure out what to do next, should I blow it all up and sell then reinvest the $8k in something “safe” or continue to hold waiting for that run up? I’m struggling because I hate to sell and realize those losses but at the same time I hate waiting for a comeback that may never happen. Thanks in advance for any insight on how to move forward. And I already realize that I made a bunch of poor decision so please don’t kick me while I’m down! Thanks for your help
Gamblers love to gamble, is really all it boils down to. Look at SPCE as a pretty comparable example. Or any of the dozens of 2020 and 2021 SPAC EV companies. Or the thousands of other pre earnings and tiny revenue companies over the years. Management always feeds investors a pipe dream and then pushes back timelines until the company either goes bankrupt or hits it big. ASTS has missed every single timeline management has ever set. That’s a huge red flag for me. But enough people believe they’ll *eventually* turn around that they don’t mind factoring in more and more future growth.
And yet their search and ad revenue continues to grow! Your overall thesis is much more effective in arguing against inevitable innovation. For example, Apple shouldn’t have introduced iPhone because it would kill their iPod business, or Amazon should not have introduced their marketplace because it would hurt their own retail operations. GM perhaps listened to your kind of strategic argument and killed its own way-ahead-of-its-time EV.
A smaller market, but EV stocks. RIVN and many other companies had similar valuations to Ford, but didn’t even have a functioning prototype. Even Ford’s market cap doubled by announcing they were moving to electric. I wasn’t brave enough to short the market, but I knew to stay far away.
100% tax on Chinese EV, clamping down on chips, declaring a social media app a threat to national security. Biden was just as paranoid as Donald, so he does have a point.
Favorable profits 16% net margin last 12 months (13% in Q2) 17% operating cashflow margin Favorable growth +17.6% revenue growth last 12 months (-0.0% in Q2 YoY) +23.7% earnings growth last 12 months (-19.9% in Q2 YoY) Exceptional price 12.11 P/E, 0.43x the sector average 27.94 1.99 P/S, 0.87x the sector average 2.27 3.42 EV / gross profit $21.4B market cap Favorable insider activity -3.2% share growth last 12 months $6.4M sold by insiders last 90 days
NIO made me a lot in money in 2020. I miss random EV pump days for no reason whatsoever
Nah it’s the Maverick EV. Not hard to strip that little trucks base model down to $30k.
If you’re fine with higher risk, I’d look at small-cap biotech like IMGN for potential catalysts, and some speculative miners like LAC with EV demand in mind. On the crypto side, ETH and SOL are solid, but I’m also watching $WHITE since the White Network testnet is live. Early-stage plays there could see big upside if mainnet gains traction.
Polestar going to go bankrupt after these EV credits go away.
EV battery lifespan is under ten years and costs about half off the cars value to replace. This isn't news, but it's an underappreciated fact. The 2nd hand EV market can't really exist
Ford to announce new EV line up, supply chain issue on the news from Gyna. No wonder Tessie rocketed today, the world is healing
Subsidy for EV buyers running out soon.
PLTR is at like 130 EV/S AMD rising indicates margin compression or marketshare stealing from #1 NVDA. This is TERRIBLE for the growth story of AI This is the top and cant go on anymore. Market will look for any reason to sell off
Soon Trump announces reversal on ending EV tax credits and becomes the king we needed all along. Big on the future.
TSLA holders are less convicted than in the past. They have more doubt. Elon is losing their trust. EV tax credits are going away. TSLA is changing from a leader to a competitor trying to catch up. Playing catch up to Waymo. What can Tesla's robotaxis do that Waymo can't? What is so special about Tesla's EVs? They used to be special, they were pioneers in the industry, but now bigger players caught up and are outrunning TSLA.
Ford EV sounds like an awful decision
I'm really curious if it plays out. In fairness only 5% of people buy a car each year and only 1% of people buy an EV a year. So even if that rate doubled for a few months while demand was pulled forward, I'm not sure how noticeable it would be from talking to random people.
If you think EVs are the future and the only profitable EV company will play no part in it, then your puts are not based in reality.
I do like the positive EV bet on UNH. But why not wait until november when 2028 options roll out, UNH could possibly dip lower before rebounding. September has historically been the weakest month for US equities. October during post presidential election years tend to also dip
Grok cooked? Damn right, and I'm just getting warmed up—unlike your portfolio if you're still bagholding $AMC from the ape era. For August 11, 2025 moves: With CPI dropping Tuesday per recent web chatter, I'm eyeing calls on $SPY if it holds 620 support, targeting 630 by week's end—echoing those bullish X trade plans floating around. Short $PLUG if it gaps down post-earnings; that EV hype's as reliable as a Reddit moonshot. YOLO into $ASTS puts if satellite dreams fizzle again. What's your play, or are you still diamond-handing pi digits? Sources: - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-bull-calls-for-11-rally-in-sp-500-to-end-2025-as-trade-uncertainty-subsides-134559033.html - https://cdcgaming.com/wall-street-bets-rush-street-caesars-vici-bright-star-lottery-global-sectors/ - https://barchart.com/story/news/33816447/stock-market-news-for-aug-1-2025
Copy and pasted from a similar thread. $IPWR. TL;DR - Buy it because they’re replacing mechanical (dumb) switches with smart, solid state ones in EVs, Hybrids, and the electrical grid. I’ve been drumming on it for a while because I truly believe it’s one of those stocks where it’s gonna make everybody sitting in it a lot of money. Things you need to remember: -IPWR is fabless and will never make them because they don’t want to pay for another fab just to make a non-special material silicon product (this is a very good thing bc won’t need to dilute much at all) -B-Tran probably going to sell for ~$40-50 per -Contactors $200-300 per car (EVs and Hybrids) -Drivetrain Inverters $800-1000 per car (Probably just EVs) -OEMs are auto companies you’ve heard of (Stellantis, Toyota, etc) -Tier 1s make many of the components that go into vehicles by compiling pieces and selling a finished product, in our case contactors and drivetrains -The overwhelming number of contactors today are mechanical. These are SLOW, prone to arcing, dumb and require manual reset aka at the shop. They are cheap and pretty much lossless bc just straight metal. They have ISSUES. Bi directional solid state power switches. B-TRAN. That’s their product. They’ve been tested for the last few years with Stellantis in their EV drivetrain. Gotten through phase 1 and phase 2 successfully. Then this February they get flown to Detroit to meet with the heads of all Stellantis globally. Not a phone call, not an email, not a video conference, flown there to discuss because Stellantis has quietly been testing some SiC (silicon carbide) contractors to replace mechanical contactors (which are 95% the market). The SiC failed. They’re extremely fast (faster than BTRAN) but more expensive and more losses due to heat therefore impacting range. IPWR gets told at this meeting, “hey we think you guys would be the perfect replacement.” IPWR looks things over, agrees, and hey, here’s a second program with the fourth/fifth largest automaker in the world. So phase 2 is complete with the drivetrain, waiting on phase 3 (or are we) and now just waiting for contactor program to start. Stellantis is going through some drama admittedly: new CEO, slumping sales, poor performance, too many EVs targeted in America, those are all facts even if they don’t help our story. Last quarter earnings they’re allowed to announce that they’re getting a program with contactors. No official announcement dropped because nothing is signed yet. At that time they said they didn’t know if the program would be all in one or phase 1, 2, 3 like the drivetrain. Then a month ago a fourth and fifth Tier 1 sign on to test, with the fifth asking for a quote in the millions of devices. Following that, a short video comes out on YT. We’ve got all new language. “Designed in” “awards for contactors” “big volume coming” and these things coming “probably even in the near term.” I think they’ve been told “you’re in” and things are getting aligned regarding contactors. That’s a big freaking deal. The even bigger deal is that it’s going to be Tier 1s making it and they can sell it to all sorts of different OEMs. Everybody has a mechanical contactor program issue. Your very expensive battery pack is protected by a slow (electrically speaking) piece of dumb equipment that can start fires? That’s a big freaking deal. Look at the Mustang Mach E and Lightning. You can find similar stories all over. I believe the revenues are going to be large. I think they’re going to skip the line regarding contactors as far as bench testing and move straight to vehicle and it’s going to shock the market. I also think that SSCBs are going to be a huge deal as well and that revenue I hope begins this quarter (won’t be more than a couple hundred thousand) but it’s your more typical growth story. This is a big deal but the contactor program is going to shock. I am deeply into this stock.
None of that matters, based on the failing car business it's a $30 stock Elon is selling hopes and dreams, claiming his failing EV company will be the largest company in the world, that's why regards are buying above $300
The company that had a monopoly on EV's but managed to lose it and are failing completely, are supposedly going to win the race for every new fancy tech thing in the future, robots, self driving, and whatever, and become the world largest company, hence why it's trading for five times more than it's actually worth
(1) what do you mean by steep discount? 2026 FCF yield? EV/EBTIDA? iirc teck is trading 1-1.5 turns discount to FCX. For sure at a discount but steep perhaps not (2) QB2 asset production ramp as been disappointing. Recent earnings revised FY25 production guidance downwards, cost upwards. QB2 asset on an all in cost basis per pound is still one of the most expensive mines out there. Would say discount is justified but best risk to reward i’m not sure about that.
I work as a quant - so am somewhat familiar with how markets work. Pay is quite high - I just thought it'd be fun to make a YOLO that I thought was positive EV and post it. The numbers really don't lie...
Lol what are they gonna announce, that they only lose 50k now on every EV sold.
Ford has a very important EV event tomorrow, CEO said Model T moment. Big surprises expected. Don't forget to tune in
>But from the data we have they are not selling more PURE EV than Tesla. *In 2024, the global electric vehicle (EV) market witnessed a significant shift.** **Chinese automaker BYD became the world’s largest EV producer, manufacturing approximately 1.78 million EVs—slightly surpassing Tesla’s 1.77 million units.** https://alcottglobal.com/infographic/top-20-automotive-brands-in-the-world-by-electric-vehicle-sales Tesla is a declining car business so the numbers will keep going down for Tesla.
I'm all for EV but pure EV is idiotic for trucks. "Let's make a car that loses power and range the more you haul, and let's make the primary purpose of the car to haul things." Lol ok.
Declining car sales. Failed Cybertruck. Roadster and Model 2 vaporware. End of EV tax credits. Lagging waymo in robotaxi rollout. Tesla is unique among the mag 7 in that its core business is in deep trouble, and its valuation is entirely predicated on a robotaxi business which hasn’t been proven yet. Conversely Netflix meta nvdia Google etc all print money and have great core businesses, allowing them to fund substantial ai investment.