Reddit Posts
My Oil/Shipping play that no one (but everyone) is talking about
I am a ex-prop trader trading US equities and these are the stocks on my watchlist (1/8).
2023-03-13 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Non-Boomer Portfolio Management for The Highly Regarded
Frontline Oil Tanker Merging with Euronav $FRO
HOW ARE WE GETTING OUR GOODS ? MAYBE IT'S TIME WE TALK ABOUT MARITIME TRANSPORT STOCKS!
Short term tanker stocks for Suez Canal blockage shipping disruptions (NAT)
Tanker gang (NAT and DHT) is back with the Suez Canal blockage
Suez Canal blockage, is the tanker gang back?
There is a massive ship blocking the Suez canal. What it means for shipping stocks.
I'm gonna fly the tanker🚀🚀 FRO FRO FRO to the moon
Mentions
I’ve said it before and I will say it again: Epstein files released>military action in Venezuela to distract>disruption in oil production & shipping>oil shipping day rates spike. Cheap calls on NAT, FRO, & TNK.
Most of my holdings are in long-range slow growth; gold, silver, industrial equipment, farm equipment. In my efforts to pick money-makers, I have worked off the assumption that when government is selling something that people don't need, or shorting something that they do need, I am not fast enough to capitalize off of the artificial bubble. So my strategy is to do the opposite of what government claims will be the winners and wants to be the winners. I've avoided playing with the big bad pharmeceutical companies or big tech, in part from lack of confidence in my ability to ride bubbles, and in part from the simple ethical quaesion of what is right to invest in -- and for me, that means those things that regular folks use to live thier lives as they are right now, or might realistically make those lives better in the near future. I've been betting on FRO (Frontline; oil tankers) since Early lockdown days (Nov 2020) when valued about $7 -- the harder the US government has worked to keep the US government has worked to keep people from producing oil, the more certain I was that in order to survive winters and get to work people would need to ship in oil. It's gone during that time from $7.50 to $23, with a high of $27. I still have money in Frontline, but not as much since other stocks have caught my eye. In August 23 I started betting on YPF - The Argentine state-run oil company, immediately after Millei's election. And it's done quite well for a while but hasn't yet been privatised; it's moved from about $11 to $25 over the course of a year, has gone as $45 but is back to \~$25. I'm still holding some, but I moved a lot out, as the possibility of full privatisation began to look like itwould only happen further in the future. I moved a lot into IONQ (quantum computing) in April and so far it's moved from \~$25 to \~$75.
I'm no financial expert, but i chose FRO,TEM,PLTR for a small portion of my savings earlier this year.
FRO puts or calls in the morning what do yall think?
i have hopes for FRO and BABA
GLD, ITA, HAL, FRO, KBR to name a few
I'm looking at FRO and NAT
Too late for tanker stonk puts? FRO, STNG, etc.
Higher tanker rates benefit everyone but FRO exclusively has VLCC which is the largest carrier type and best for long range voyages. TNK’s largest ship is a Suezmax. VLCC is the cheapest per barrel to transport.
I like the sound of both of these but why would FRO benefit from Russia specifically?
Looks like a good time to buy, but also one thing to consider is that since 2023 they’ve paid almost $5 in dividends. This is a safe harbour stock that will greatly benefit from trade routes being rewritten (in less efficient manners). Looking at 50% increase in the next 6 months with built in inflation protection. For Russia in particular if that shipping opens up there are maybe better plays involving VlCC’s like FRO.
Everyone’s always asking about dilution! Yes, if all warrants are exercised, MGOL shareholders’ ownership drops slightly from 5.66% to 5.09%. But even after full dilution, MGOL still looks undervalued. 🔹 How I Value Heidmar: • I looked at publicly traded shipping companies like DHT, STNG, FRO, and TK, which trade at 4x-8x EV/EBITDA multiples. • If Heidmar’s EBITDA is around $50M-$60M, a fair valuation using these comps would be $400M-$500M+. 🔹 How That Affects MGOL’s Value: • At a $400M Heidmar valuation, MGOL’s 5.09% stake would be worth $20.36M, implying a ~$0.73 fair price per share pre-merger. • Even at just $300M, MGOL should be ~$0.55 per share—still higher than today’s price. • At $500M, MGOL could be worth ~$0.91 per share. So while dilution slightly reduces MGOL’s stake, the market is still underpricing it. The argument that MGOL is now “stuck” at $0.18-$0.33 ignores the fact that it’s still trading well below its proportional value in Heidmar. Some shorts might be using the dilution argument as a scare tactic, but the math still favors MGOL holders. 🚀
If you are a boomer and want an upside play with income as well, look into FRO. One of the larger marine transportation companies in the world, shipping natural gas and oil and could benefit greatly from increased sanctions on Iran and Russia
Yes, mom. I'm bringing home NAT and FRO. Where's my tanker boys at from covid times?
I’m not a financial advisor so this is NOT financial advice so you need to do the work or subscribe to a good inexpensive financial newsletter like income factory By Steven Bavaria with returns In the 8 to 12% anual returns. I’d like to give you some of his picks but I’d probably get my sub canceled. You can look at dividend aristocrats which raise their dividends year in and year out like ETF NOBL. Another more expensive newsletter is capital Exploits by Chris Macintosh which focuses out of favor stocks ie asymmetrical bets to the upside that can takes several years to payoff but they also have a high dividend list as well. If you’re young, you also have to have the stomach to withstand the ups and downs of the market. As long as the dividends/distributions remain good and you’re reinvesting those returns, you can buy more shares at a lower price. For example, I bought FRO at $14 and it went to 24 but now it’s down to 15. I don’t care, it’s still paying me around 12% and the fundamentals are still great and I can buy more shares at a lower price. I have a 5 year investment horizon so what happens week to week or month to month is not something I worry about. To quote Wayne Gretzky, I don’t skate where the puck is, I skate, where the puck is going. Might look at PTY or MFIC as examples of CEFs. Good luck, Bill.
I stupidly bought some FRO calls for earnings. I have no idea what they do. We shall see
Anyone invested in FRO?
Crude ripping on Iran ..Buying $FRO here for catch up
FRO. When it was $13 a share the dividends were awesome.
Container shipping stocks and bulk carrier stocks. Ex. ZIM, SBLK, ASC, GNK, GOGL, FRO. Baltic dry index recently is going up again. Container freight price is nearing covid highs.
My top 10 individual stocks by position size. As I approach retirement I am converting my portfolio from growth to income and growth, so some are less well-known names. 1. NVDA (Information Technology) 2. SHOP (Information Technology) 3. **KNSL** (Financials) 4. TRMD (Energy) 5. FRO (Energy) 6. PBR (Energy) 7. ABR (Financials) 8. LPG (Energy) 9. CGBD (Financials) 10. AMZN (Consumer Discretionary)
I fucking wish I pulled the trigger on FRO months ago. It's up like 20% over the last month.
Some dude with a huge FRO is representing us regards on Bloomberg? Who TF is this dood?
Some dude with a huge FRO is representing us regards on Bloomberg? Who TF is this dood?
What’s the move with FRO and Zim?
$FRO frontline LTD . OIL TANKER VESSELS with its services being provided by EVERY COUNTRY. SO YOU CAN SEE WHY IT WILL TOUCH ATH SOON :))))
YES. $FRO….. Play the rumor :)
$FRO … ZIM overbought but there’s other oil plays like it…..
I’m in FRO and it CLOSELY follows ZIM as the biggest tanker fleet in the world (one of)
I’ve been holding EURN and FRO since 2020 and they have doubled/tripled while paying out significant dividends. Granted, I’d rather be holding NVDA but buying into the supercycle has been great. Probably a little late to hop in now (at least for eurn and fro) expecting big gains.
2020 tanker gang checking in. Tanker super cycle + Middle East unrest  EURN and FRO going to have a good year
FRO is a quality company. Their fleet is second probably only to STNG. Zoom way out in the chart, like 20 yr. A little higher and it goes a lot higher imo. Dude this operation Prosperity Guardian is a joke! Have you been following the clown show? We are still early innings on this. I got trolls saying why didn't post earlier. You had it posted last week!
Nice! The other one I'm playing is FRO
What's up with oil? XOM, WTI, and FRO all flopping down.
FRO is paying a near 12% dividend, broke out of a near decade long range to the upside, and has the Israel-Hamas war as a catalyst to keep driving it higher. The war will likely drive shipping rates up (the CEO of the company originally got rich during the Iran-Iraq war because of shipping rates going through the roof during that conflict).
For the most part I went the high dividend and high growth rate on the things you really need in recession like energy and food. My FRO stock is up 82%while paying an almost 12% dividend currently
DAME !!! SLUMS OF MUMBYE !!! MONDAY 9:30 am soon WE READY FRO THESE CAWK SUCKAS ITS TIME TO DODDODOD DULE YUGIOH!!!
Neither. Go with companies that are solid, have a good track record, and pay out 10 - 16 percent based on their stock price. Here are a few: LPG FLNG RC CALM FRO
Im tied down to $FRO and feeling comfy at the moment but $VLO is on sale right now.
I'm in $FRO. It's up 1% in post market, so it will be down 2% in pre market.
Being 1.5% up on $TMO feels like being up 20% up on a day like this. Maybe I'll get my red tomorrow. Looking at $KDP or $FRO if I sell tomorrow.
$FRO good dividend for it's price with great upside
Oh, I feel so burned. And intimidated by you, the master world traveler. FRO
Don’t do puts on FRO like I did
Goddam ridiculous. I assume the OP also has similar ""moral hesitation"" about investing in companies like AAPL or GOOG that are actually destroying western civilization? No? Just defense companies? All the rest of its just fine? ​ FRO with that shit
Just got home. I looked at my journal. As it turns out, I am a liar, but an honest one. The questions were sincere in spite of everyone's assessment that I was being egotistical. When I looked at the market this morning, I coulda swore I had comparisons from options purchased in Jan 2023. Then I thought it would be interesting to discuss why a very similar contract merely time shifted three months would be so much more pricey. Those options I had in mind turned out to be 13,14, and 15 calls and those were only as low as $.49, specifically FRO230317C15. That was $1.06 in the money at my open with underlying at $13.94 on Jan 30. I closed at $1.80 for a tidy 261% gain on 2/13. This gain seemed very much like the (incorrect) change in price from January to this morning that I held in my mind's eye. So then I posed the questions in the original post. Did my gains cause the human(s) on the other side of the contract to re-price? Given the very low volume in FRO options, it's not unreasonable to think that very few people are writing on the sell side. If I was on the sell side and I took a haircut, I would increase my prices. Is that such a strange question? Upon looking at my history as it is actually written down, prices are roughly equivalent today to what they were in January. (Which is good. Maybe I can score again.) The entire discussion was formulated poorly and based on a bad premise to start with. If you've got some crow, I'll take an extra helping. Thanks for sticking with me, Duckats. Cleaning up the last bits... ATM: at the money. Equal to or reasonably close to the strike price. Intrinsic: Stock price - strike price for calls else 0 if negative, opposite for puts. Extrinsic: the time value, zero at expiration, premium - intrinsic prior to expiration.
Sure: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FRO/options?p=FRO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FRO/options?p=FRO) 16 calls are 1.55 as of this writing. and also the similar contract with the March 17 expiration purchased early in the year for about $.30. I don't have my spreadsheet in front of me. Not sure how to pull up an option chain for an expired contract.
FRO moved in line as other tankers, too. You just were lucky.
Real Estate: Zillow -Z Oil: Tidewater - TDW Oil Tanker: Teekay- TNK & Frontline FRO Dividend: CTO Reality Growth - CTO Consumer Lending: Lendingtree - TREE Uber Google Amazon Wayfair
I did FRO and SDOW and I’m hurting
With the latest Alaska oil drilling news and Saudi china Iran relations hitting all time high. China started to purchase Saudi oil big time. Frontline $FRO oil tanker is the way to go. China just booked them to carry Saudi oil.
The US02Y, IN05Y, and IN02Y bonds are all down today. The CN02Y bond is also down, but not by as much. JPO2y is up slightly. However, EU02Y and DEO2y are both down significantly (by over 15%). ESO2y and ITO2y are also both down by around 9%. AUO2y is only down by 4.5%. FRO2y is similarly down by over 15%.
At the current time: Favorite 5 Long Positions: GDXJ, WBA, ARCH, SWBI, FRO ​ Favorite 5 Short Positions: LEN, KBH, DHI, TSLA, META
First rule that was told to me as I started out was "Own the pipes and find the money". So in your context of the shovels sellers AMT comes to mind. ET as truly owning the pipes. Right now FRO as an oil transporter. Unfortunately most of these are ring high at the time of this post.
PBR, VALE, ABEV are great value stocks with good dividends that will outperform if not nationalized. Position size appropriately that if they drop to zero you‘ll be able to stomach the loss. PBR is trading at 2x earnings. I think there’s rules against tickers of sub $1B companies but there’s only two publicly traded firearms companies in the US, they are market cap around 700M. They’ve been hit hard in the last few months. I loaded up on more. WBA Walgreens looks cheap And nice diversifier from my otherwise commodity producers. I’m keeping an eye on Kohls KSS because it looks cheap but has run up a bunch lately so I’d like to be a pull back. It may not happen and I may miss it but I am okay missing stuff. I want to buy $1 for to cents, rather than buy $1 for $2 and hope it goes to $3. From a macro level, shoppers will be forced to downgrade. Target shoppers go to Walmart. And I think Kohls is a lower tier kind of place in the middle class realm. I can see new shoppers downgrading from something better down to kohls. Also there’s the bullwhip effect and I think lots of apparel and home goods places are overstocked. So they might offload stuff to kohls cheaper than usual. I really like gold miners like GDXJ but it’s run up 30% in recent weeks so it’s tough to say it’s as good of a deal as when I got in, but I think 2x or 3x over a year is possible. If the fed pivots, GDXJ could soar. Gold is at 1750 now. It was over $2000 in early 2020 before we got 30% debasement of the dollar supply. It \*should\* be $3,000 an ounce now. Gold miners are a leveraged play in that if gold doubles, then miners might 5x or 10x. But it works both ways if gold goes down. Miners use diesel as input cost so being long oil stocks is a good internal hedge. Speaking of oil. I loaded up on tanker stocks when the pipeline magically exploded and they’re up 40% in a couple months. FRO is my fav but it’s run up a bit so Id wait to see if it drops down back to 10 before entering.
These tanker charts are ridiculously good FRO DHT etc
Energy stocks have been consistently showing up in OlivePicks portfolios all year. Just today I see 7/11 picks are energy ([UNG](https://share.oliveinvest.com/018477e3-5ce0-335e-a2c5-9be09ee7a96e), [TNP](https://share.oliveinvest.com/018477e3-5ce0-8115-d28a-0884a8c92e73), DK, FRO, ET, CVE, CTRA)
FLNG, STNG, FRO. Adjacent would be LNG
Only have EQNR.NYSE/OL and FRO.NYSE/OL Bought this summer with 45% of my total cash
Barbell strategy in the Oil&Gas sector with $NOG as the high risk/high reward play and $OVV and $MTDR low risk/value (50%) You can balance that with 20% allocation in short term duration treasury bonds $SHY ( after the next meeting of the FED) just in case the worst happens (markets crash followed by an economic depression) 20% in precious metals $PHYS or a physical Platinum ETF just in case the proxy war between NATO and Russia gets totally out of control 10% in $FRO. A sure bet if the EU effectively sanctions Russian oil.
# Tickers of Interest **Gamma Max Cross** * [FRO](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FRO) 10/21 13C for $0.65 or less * [SARK](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SARK) 10/21 60P for $2.70 or less * [AES](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AES) 10/21 24P for $0.45 or less * [VET](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#VET) 10/21 20P for $0.60 or less * [FAZ](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FAZ) 10/21 26.5P for $1.65 or less **Delta Neutral Cross** * [AAPL](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#AAPL) 10/21 155C for $3.50 or less * [LVS](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#LVS) 10/21 36C for $1.70 or less * [JNJ](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#JNJ) 10/21 165P for $3.05 or less * [MET](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#MET) 10/21 64C for $1.85 or less * [SNOW](https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#SNOW) 10/21 85C for $10.45 or less # Trading Thesis Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today. This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0. For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both. It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals. The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV. # Notes * If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Someone knows something that I don't know. * Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion. * I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in. * The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. # FAQ * These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear? * No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level. * Are you entering all these plays? * No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
No one wants to hear this but tankers continue to be strong. Frontline went up 8.89% yesterday. So probably buying and selling out of call plays in STNG, FRO, EURN and TNP. Still working though so can't be that active today.
Suez max tankers and clean tankers had freight rate increases in June 2022. Check out the monthly OPEC report. NAT, STNG, ASC, FRO, DHT!
Continue to accumulate product tankers. Probably buying Hafnia / Ardmore tomorrow as my favorite STNG is getting sort of expensive. I like the sector a lot. Though it's shot up a bit ytd I think we're at the beginning of a bull cycle in product. Rates on MR and LR ships are at their highest rates since the contango of 2020. But these rates are due mainly to tonne mileage increases from the war in Russa / Ukraine and Chinese refinery capacity being used for exports rather than domestically. Current tanker position (other positions not included): 2300 STNG 206 Fro 1 FRO $9.00 call 7/15 1 Fro $9.00 8/19 EURN 170 Been playing options both ways on these to accumulate and possibly get some premium theta wise. STNG is too hot to do covered calls on atm. It's hotter than the surface of the sun some days.
Good for the tankers! STNG, EURN, FRO. Ah who rhe fuck am I kidding I'm all Scorpio Tankers. The youngest and largest product fleet in the world right before the boom. Yes we have experienced a 163% increase. But it can go higher.
I'm still in oil tankers. Up 143% on my 2100 STNG shares. Been buying and selling options on STNG, FRO, DHT, and EURN. Looking at 7/15 calls on Eurn at $13.00. Probably buying five of those on Monday. I think we're still about a year to 18 months out from the super cycle.
>FED'S BOSTIC: UKRAINE WAR HAS NOT CHANGED THINKING ON BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION, WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN QUICKLY, FASTER THAN LAST TIME \>FED'S BOSTIC: HAVE NOT SETTLED ON APPROPRIATE PACE FRO BALANCE SHEET RUNOFF, BUT EXPECT 'SYMMETRY OF SCALE' RELATIVE TO LAST TIME ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-03-21 ^09:30:22 ^EDT-0400
Right now most Iranian oil is black market and traded on “hidden” ships usually owned by Iran. The best way to play it, in my opinion, is tankers. It’s also a good pair trade to be long both producers and tankers. If oil supply increases tankers should do better and producers down and vice versa. Right now tanker market isn’t great due to the oil cuts, but really improved due to that war. If oil comes back legally from iran then those “hidden” ships most likely start going to scrap as most buyers will need insured and ships up to date on ballast treatments. This is also a play on the Russia/Ukraine war not getting any better as some of the only buyers of Russian crude will be India and China which increases ton miles compared to EU. Best tankers are eco or ones with scrubbers. Many say the best is OET, the companies with older ships that may need to buy new ships as opposed to shareholder returns are ones like TNK and TNP. Best for upside in the product market is STNG. And then a way undervalued shipper (due to poor management) is NMM with tons of containers already locked in to give them profit this year without any contributions from their bulk and tankers. EURN is considered one of the safest but also not a ton of upside and also needs new ships. FRO is pretty highly regarded but again limited upside and then DHT who has some pretty decent long term charters. There is some great ship Twitter accounts and info if you want to dig in further
Yup, I remember the shipping craze. FRO was a name I was in for a bit. They got absolutely destroyed by the recession and most never recovered. Very risky.
I don’t know this one and am not well versed in shipping. Would be interested to hear thoughts from someone who follows this closely. Is it basically just tied to container shipping rates and so does it get destroyed if rates normalize? OP, take a look at the chart for FRO. This was a shipper that was all the rage back before the Great Recession. Offered an incredible dividend. And just got fucking demolished when shipping conditions changed.
Haha thanks, I’ve been following this sector a while, the secular set up is amazing, ships take a long time to build and in the dry bulk space none are on the horizon, oil tankers hit that same situation next year, and with all the expected changes to come on federal rules on emissions next year, everyone is scared to put in orders til they know what they need to comply with. It’s a gongshow. ZIM SBLK FRO GRIN OB STNG will all benefit. Only thing that sideswipes this is a global recession, which is not out of the cards. But these stocks as so cheap, downside should be contained.SBLK Has a 30% div yield that’s fully backed by earnings and only trades at 5x earnings. Find that anywhere else in the market
$FRO = green dildos do what you want with this info
NAT me. Sorry if that STNGs - FRO real. DHT quote me on that though. EURN a lot of trouble if you do.
Pipelines ( SHLX, ET, etc ). Tankers ( TNK, NAT, STNG, FRO ). LONG
FRO looking tasty right now though
Main risk is further variants/shutdowns/lockdowns. Add to that labor issues potentially worsening, and I'm not sure dry bulk will outperform something like tankers or containerships simply due to margins. Demurrage eats everyone alive, so essentially when you make this bet you're buying a put on time to normalcy around the world. Compare this with more containership focused companies (i.e SFL) or tanker/VLCC focused fleets (i.e FRO), the aforementioned are more hedged against the pandemic.
Always be careful in any stock. DO your DD and ignore EVERYTHING OCE. YOU FOUND YOUR STOCK PICK. EVEN FRO. THIS SUB.
$FRO has been one of my biggest gains this year. They do gas and other energy tanker shipping. Everyone thought Biden + the pandemic were gonna be terrible for energy but I bought at a bargain. Before the rona they had one of the highest dividend yields on the market, and they still havent resumed them so theres still probably room for more gain.
Right on, there is nothing wrong with investing in FRO at all, especially if you're looking for their high dividend. But for what it's worth MRO has increased their dividend this year and they will most likely do it again. Granted the dividend isn't something to write home about, but it is growing.
You’re right, FRO mainly ships and transports the oil, where as MRO extracts it. I suppose the price of oil and the transportation of it isn’t necessarily correlated. I also have FRO for the large dividend yield. Yes, I’m a dividend investor but love me some WSB gambles here and there
The only thing I know about FRO is that they are a large tanker company. With that said, I see tanker companies as an essential tool for oil and gas and I'm sure that they will do just fine but I don't see how they would be able to capitalize on these elevated prices at the same level of a company who gets paid to actually extract it from the ground. So in my opinion, MRO would absolutely be a better play (based on my limited knowledge of FRO). I hope that helps, thanks for the question and adding to the discussion, cheers.
Was thinking about moving half my position from FRO to MRO. Currently have 300 shares of FRO, y’all think MRO has more potential?