FV

Ok_Cartoonist6749

HMR SP=0.86 MC=50M Rev=55M EV=82M Debt=0 (good) cash=18M float=5.5M 90%insider 0.2% Institute (Not good). FV/BV=0.18 as EV>MC. (40 veseels?? Not sure) They have cash whereas IMPP deployed in buying Vessels. Price of Vessels r going to-go up as alot of ships r burnt.

Ok_Cartoonist6749

SP=4.30 IMPP MC=155M REV=161M EV=64M NO DEBT. 22 Vessels booked 2026/27 n their FV=14 as per the Assets they have. They beat QTR over QTR ER N stunning 2026/27 for them due to geopolitical issues. Float=11M 29% insider n 37% Institute

ChillinInTheCorridor

> SPY's current "Book Value" is $125 per share. Historically SPY traded at 2 times its book value so its fair value is $250 per share. Today it’s typically closer to ~4x+, not 2x. So FV would be roughly $500, roughly 30% off where we are today. Room to fall.

I_HopeThat_WasFart

[https://www.amazon.com/Option-Volatility-Pricing-Strategies-Techniques/dp/0071818774/ref=sr\_1\_1?adgrpid=186698310695&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.kRWtdJmT\_nc9J7DuJpda9d7e3OvIpR24mtdeWK6b3iokuIn4xx-KqtfH9a040JQ\_W4zgVrCO-ftpGpLZgCasKK6bNCvbjV2FV38kvGU2xrAOZTnGJgLRrICoqSTNQ8Bqustf8dXaM1OibmOKFPkEvKotcKCrvzFPipfOOUCVBKQ8aL8BhyCUrTepB1irAlMMi0EZzj1s589iZN4VXjlsbdWDdv80k4xq38aFiMTyjCM.2Uj8tpLB4rEYD9LWeeFX6gMCwgJJPevA6qY-WMxgHRU&dib\_tag=se&hvadid=779644457039&hvdev=c&hvexpln=0&hvlocphy=9027782&hvnetw=g&hvocijid=6820874281191973523--&hvqmt=e&hvrand=6820874281191973523&hvtargid=kwd-307606037734&hydadcr=18493\_13717444\_2332429&keywords=options+volatility+and+pricing&mcid=798e8a8e0ce53dc5aae9437496909de7&qid=1774623194&sr=8-1](https://www.amazon.com/Option-Volatility-Pricing-Strategies-Techniques/dp/0071818774/ref=sr_1_1?adgrpid=186698310695&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.kRWtdJmT_nc9J7DuJpda9d7e3OvIpR24mtdeWK6b3iokuIn4xx-KqtfH9a040JQ_W4zgVrCO-ftpGpLZgCasKK6bNCvbjV2FV38kvGU2xrAOZTnGJgLRrICoqSTNQ8Bqustf8dXaM1OibmOKFPkEvKotcKCrvzFPipfOOUCVBKQ8aL8BhyCUrTepB1irAlMMi0EZzj1s589iZN4VXjlsbdWDdv80k4xq38aFiMTyjCM.2Uj8tpLB4rEYD9LWeeFX6gMCwgJJPevA6qY-WMxgHRU&dib_tag=se&hvadid=779644457039&hvdev=c&hvexpln=0&hvlocphy=9027782&hvnetw=g&hvocijid=6820874281191973523--&hvqmt=e&hvrand=6820874281191973523&hvtargid=kwd-307606037734&hydadcr=18493_13717444_2332429&keywords=options+volatility+and+pricing&mcid=798e8a8e0ce53dc5aae9437496909de7&qid=1774623194&sr=8-1)

Rhyux

Is this bait? Note 4 shows 2024 alongside 2025 from which you should be able to add/substract to extract values for FY effects per loan type. As you said, realized gains means cash, in which case then again there's a cash flow statement that substracts FV adjustments from earnings as those are not cash. Once again, simple math can show you the relationship between FV adjustments per loan type and data reported on the earnings and cash flow statements. Do you expect a loan by loan full on report in the 10k and if not you call for lack of transparency? That's clearly not the purpose of financial statements reporting. Nothing is going to say to you if a model is right or wrong until it goes to market and as you yourself said on a comment below, SoFi is selling at par which means the model is working.

bnewhard

Tell me where in the cash flow statement you can see "fair value changes in loans held for sale." That would tell you the precise amount of unrealized fair value adjustments on SoFi's personal loans. Personal loans are "held for sale." Whatever that number is, it is aggregated with a bunch of other numbers in another line item. Note 4 doesn't tell you the breakdown of realized/unrealized gains as they flow into earnings. It just shows the cumulative amount of fair value adjustments. That is a useful number, but not the same thing. The cumulative number won't tell you if the model has been right or wrong. It won't tell you when the fair value adjustment flowed into earnings during a particular period- since it is cumulative (i.e. inclusive of fair value adjustments from prior periods without a breakdown). The number required by GAAP is important because it tells you specifically this period/this year, how much of the FV earnings were a model based adjustment, and how much of the FV earnings turned into cash (realized). If model based are positive, and realized are negative, you know your model has been wrong and needs to be tweaked. That way you can evaluate this period's earnings more rigorously. Nothing in Note 4 can give you that information. GAAP has a great easy solution to give visibility into earnings quality when earnings are driven by model based FV adjustments. Again, why is SoFi not doing it? Their auditor Deloitte's handbook says it should be done that way. Check out big bank SEC filings, like Chase. They do it the exact way Deloitte recommends. Why is more transparency bad?

bnewhard

There is nothing in the 10-K showing realized and unrealized gains as to loans that I've seen. Please let me know where. Due to aggregation, the cash flow statement lacks information on unrealized gains on SoFi's loans held for sale, which is all of its personal loans and the large majority of all loans owned by SoFi. You can see FV changes only for loans held for investment which are Student Loans. https://preview.redd.it/mxuqyomb89rg1.png?width=869&format=png&auto=webp&s=33e391595a7fc6a8aac2813411591db54f5550c6 Any time I post social media screenshots, I get in trouble with the moderators. Feel free to do a search on [x.com](http://x.com) and scroll through Anthony Noto's replies and comments directed to him. Not going to share or get into detail on e-mail conversations with others.

bnewhard

This is a common misconception. SoFi frequently states that it has a loan execution percentage of 104-105%. If you look closely, the entire gain comes from the servicing asset being recognized when loans are sold and not from an actual payment above par. The loans themselves are basically sold at par. For instance,  in 2025,, SoFi sold $1.6 billion worth of loans, received $1.6 billion worth of cash, and recognized a $98 million servicing asset, which represented more than the entire $95 million gain on the sale. And recall that there are some pretty serious FV issues with the servicing assets. What can possibly explain negative net servicing income, when gross servicing income has increased by 50%? The only explanation that makes sense is that overvalued servicing assets are producing losses as they amortize. https://preview.redd.it/x7bqmf9v08rg1.png?width=923&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a17a6b5b2a8918b5dac4279c16b7c5596936fec

Dramatic-Load-6569

Welcome to the world of trading where retail traders are the guppies in this game. The only way to attempt to compete is to use algos from your broker but even then, you’ll struggle against the market making firm grown algos. One of my old shops turned over hardware every three months, ran algos on GPU cards and that was 15yrs ago. You showing up inside the spread will force them to compete for the top of the book inside their FV calcs, but those will widen when you disappear. My bigger issue is when you try to get inside and still lose the orders that show up on that side to the pros. In my opinion, equity markets are worse when it comes to this stuff.

MitchCurry

Trailing PE is a bad metric for NOW right now. It doesn't capture their economic transition from seat-based pricing to hybrid, what margins will do as that shift occurs, M&A results (decreased earnings due to recent spending spree), or RPO acceleration (26% overall and 26% on cRPO). Run a DCF and it shows an implied FV of \~$145B EV which is an upside of \~30% on today's share price.

bnewhard

I hope this will not be taken as hyperbole, but I think SoFi is a Enron type situation. Specifically that it is held up by inflated earnings/assets consisting of incorrect FV models. (That was the primary thing that brought Enron down. The amount of red flags there is endless. 1. What bank doesn't pay payroll taxes - repeatedly? That can have criminal consequences for control persons, as payroll taxes are considered trust funds of government SoFi and its affiliates have 30+ tax liens dating back to 2017 - what a lot of them in last few years - including a California tax lien this year! 2. There are multiple extreme statistical outliers about SoFi do not make sense without serious accounting issues. Like the fact that gross servicing revenue is way up, but servicing income is trending down. It is only explainable by bad fair value earnings getting reversed over time. 3. About 15% of SoFi's revenue consists of purely model driven fair value adjustments existing entirely on paper. Every quarter, SoFi marks its loans up or down according to what SoFi deems is the fair value of the loans. The fair value is supposed to reflect the bona fide, marketplace value of the loan as though it was sold to a third party. I found like ten different independent reasons to disbelieve the validity of those adjustments. SoFi's peers show their loans having basically a slight discount less than face value. SoFi's models have a fairly substantial premium over face value, continuously since 2021. SoFi's fair value modeling treats SoFi loans (unsecured consumer and student loans) as though they had risk profiles LESS risky than investment grade corporate bonds. Which is absurd obviously. And while SoFi touts that its borrowers are super-prime, credit rating reports from neutral third parties like Fitch have noted underperformance for SoFi loans in recent years. Particularly remarkable is how SoFi values student loans. They are low coupon rate, long duration. In 2022, similar profile treasury bonds had their worst year ever due to rapid inflation. No one wants to buy a 3% bond with a 20 year pay back period when you can buy a risk free treasury bond at 5%. Well SoFi had tons and tons of these low coupon, long duration student loans on its books - and according to SoFi, they were valued ABOVE face value - when long duration low interest risk free treasury bonds were losing 20%+ value in 2022! SoFi has sold hardly any student loans since Covid, yet another indication of lack of value, yet somehow, someway SoFi insists they are worth more than face value. The accounting issues have been flagged before somewhat in 2022/2023, but mostly are ignored now. Well, same thing happened to Enron. People called out their fair value models in the mid-90s, but it didn't implode until 2001. SoFi successfully has papered over the fair value issues by originating more and more loans every year. SoFi inevitably takes a loss when an overvalued loan fails to reach an expected value when it is sold or when it is paid off. But a newly originated loan will generate new earnings to mask the loss on old loans. Obviously there is a lot more to it than this, but that's it at a high level.

bnewhard

I am putting together a deep dive into SoFi. I should be posting full thing this evening. Interested in any initial feedback. ·       **Fair Value.** SoFi uses models to value its loan inventory. Non-cash adjustments over par go straight to earnings. SoFi used to get a lot of heat for this back in 2022/2023 (since the adjustments were all on paper, and SoFi’s models showed that its loans were far more valuable than peers). Problem has not gone away. Historically and currently SoFi’s loan valuation model treats its unsecured consumer and student loans as less risky than investment grade corporate bonds. SoFi papered over these issues by originating more and more new loans (with artificial model gains) to wash out paper losses being taken on older overvalued loans as they pay off or are sold. There are lots of subtle indications of this: o   Servicing volume/gross income up while net servicing income trends down and turns negative (2025). (Full data only available due to Federal Reserve filings, omitted in SEC filings). Servicing assets are valued at fair value like loans, this data is consistent with a “bleed back” of overvalued assets o   Federal Reserve fillings show $700M ($547M, removing $173M in hedges) in FV adjustments flowing straight to earnings. That’s more than the $482M in net income for 2025. This full data is also omitted in SoFi’s SEC filings o   Based on all the serious FV model issues, there is very good reason to believe that there should be $0  or negative FV adjustments, i.e. wiping out all profit and then some. Same situation for last year. This is extremely dangerous for SoFi’s regulatory capital situation, as these “earnings” flowed through to equity, and loans in inventory make up a huge portion (70%) of SoFi’s asset base. ·       **Sky High Customer Acquisition Costs, Low Return.** SoFi’s central strategy is to be a diverse, one stop shop of consumer finance – banking, investments, loans, financial advice, etc. In fact, SoFi’s business is about 81% loans (interest earned, selling loans, servicing loans). SoFi has paid a very heavy price acquiring marginal customers to grow its “one shop” initiatives and has industry high customer acquisition costs, undermining its “nimble/efficient” depiction of itself. o   SoFi’s high CAC can be seen just by comparing financial data across SEC filings. I did so through Q3 2025, and SoFi’s spend on CAC was higher than peers Upstart, LendingClub, Pagay, Oportun, and Capital One. o   Federal Reserve BHCPR data confirms that SoFi’s basic efficiency metrics sit beyond the 95th percentile of its peer group across multiple measures. Example: total overhead is 7.37% of avg assets vs 4.20% at the 95th percentile peer. That’s 75% ABOVE 95th percentile peer. On an income basis, overhead is 85.98% of adjusted operating income vs 76.61% at the 95th percentile o   FFEIC (bank regulatory data) shows that SoFi’s bank deposit size metrics are comically low compared to peers ($3.5k vs $17k at Synchrony, $24 at Ally Bank, $38k at Lending Club, $43k at American Express, etc. o   ADV forms filed with SEC show that SoFi Wealth’s assets under management metrics show the same pattern: lots of small accounts - average size of $5.2K. More akin to a micro-brokerage like an Acorn ($2.1k) or Stash ($1.8k) than full service brokerages (e.g. Betterment: 47k, Wealthfront $66.8k, Vanguard $429k) **Tech Platform.** SoFi spent $2B+ acquiring tech companies. Tech is only about 9% of the company’s revenue. And the Tech Platform is a money-loser. The Tech Platform’s earnings have become increasingly reliant on increasing “intercompany fees,” which is SoFi’s other segments “paying” the Tech Platform. The fees don’t flow through to consolidated earnings. Without intercompany fees, and without a one time $33M cancellation fee from Chime in Q4, the Tech Platform would have lost money in Q4 2025. Yet SoFi refused to take an impairment.Comically, SoFi’s CEO repeatedly told investors the tech platform was monetizing existing clients with new deals, using identical language, in call after call. The footnotes in SoFi’s filings showed otherwise. https://preview.redd.it/9iqax77tqgmg1.png?width=618&format=png&auto=webp&s=349f5834c3b3809e7896650db74b47b4676455d6 I found an interesting quote from an early 2000’s NYT profile on CEO Anthony Noto (in bold) that I kept coming back to as I did my DD. **Some of those mistakes were noticed by Goldman Sachs's own technology bankers, who made tough-minded critiques of Mr. Noto in an evaluation of his work from August 1999 to July 2000, a period that included the early months of the Nasdaq collapse. In the evaluation, a managing director in Goldman's corporate finance division said that "Anthony undermines his credibility by appearing as more of an advocate/defender (or at worst a company spokesman) for his companies' success rather than as an unbiased analyst." Mr. Noto declined to comment on the evaluation.** My position: short via puts. More details to come tonight in a standalone post. PS SoFi options trade weekly. Lots of OI, liquidity out there.

Street_Dimension_689

As this piece has been divisive , thought I’d share another piece by Ben Thompson that rebuts’s a few points in the Citrini piece https://stratechery.com/2026/another-viral-ai-doomer-article-the-fundamental-error-doordashs-ai-advantages/?access_token=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsImtpZCI6InN0cmF0ZWNoZXJ5LnBhc3Nwb3J0Lm9ubGluZSIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.YfCVwDBPe6Mh--3hWUlNnfZcL9EvhCMnGSYpwmX6s_2ITD-_44DusKoV3jM-loyegp2UJ8xusWmRzLAPHY-bGyR6rCcFGxnNAlWipbTBFiO3yJfAf9SimiWqeQ_pq0v-w7OZK8KHsTEQSl5gs8EIsyvOUW7YdUcL_IgOLb7llsjSHi0OPaEOuUYUUq_mlpGLOviQwjSwca_BXMcoG1RTKsxsPBfwy-93gpd0EVJwnqZnae0r7h0ktJ28Fh0Zj1DXH0k90puCLE4R5FV0xCisAJVDiO0Pw4XcrOOiaYaxoPXkByBR9KunIObszbz0c2awaG25P5aCD3_fdBGh5NJ6tQ

therossboss

yes and MSFT FV 600 is a goofy ahh opinion rn

taimoor2

8 years of $1424 per month at 6% will lead to a FV of $136k. This can be used to create a perpetual cash flow of $680 for life. At end of life, your beneficiaries have $136k in cash. Take it early.

Electrical-Craft-571

they stated they have no plans to change the stock anytime soon and they have until april to submit a plan which is more than enough time. i think the mm will pump this stock as well heavy before any dilution as the CEO awarded shares and its trading well below FV at 16 usd. I don't think this is a long term hold at all, but my thesis is that the hype + time crunch + news will create increased volume and anticipation for a "last big spike" throughout this week which can be a good opportunity to ride the wave before a dilution

Pure_Composer_9236

I believe FV is around 55 to 60.

dietcoke2765

I mean more like the market just took a correction and hood and pltr were just pretty highly overvalued. Obviously hindsight is 2020 but stocks that have a super high beta that way above their FV will be more like to be the first to shake down when the market has a hiccup. IMO

RealWICheese

Taking it on the chin today. It’s still above FV IMHO but the investment thesis remains the same. Still holding.

AMountainOfAlpha

https://preview.redd.it/swtagmyl5kfg1.png?width=2882&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f6503cb966824f011140d3b16e82c265f849737 [JNJ going to $200](https://www.amountainofalpha.com/chart/3FV4yDmWxF) \- thanks Cramer!

Saboteurial

Don't need to. The point that needs to be understood is the price you're paying for the FV that doesn't track. The risk you undertake for so little. It's increasing quickly due to hype so people are buying on the upswing.

Saboteurial

Investors and traders alike will compare within the sector/industry and will pay what they believe the FV will be greater than. AVAV is a midcap stock which I already understand so less share in circulation than GOOGL so its easier to drive the price up. As of RN, they (whoever they \[algos and people\] are) believe the FV of AVAV is justifiable given the current state of its business and potential future prospects. However, it has yet to prove itself as it has been losing money recently. Additionally, its margins are very low. I am not comparing industry to industry, which I get is how others invest. I look at risk by price and compare it against metrics to determine likelihood of success on a bet.

Accurate_Pay_2242


Acceptable-Squash491

They actually get away with not FV their homes based on quarterly report

SeattleDave0

Yeah, 6 months is perfectly adequate for a working professional with a stable career. The 60-month cushion I'm talking about is for a retired person who is dependent on their investment portfolio as their main source of income. The worst thing you can do during a downturn is to sell your stocks when the stock market is down. Having enough in fixed-income investments to ride out a recession is essential for a comfortable retirement. For example, let's say a retired person has a budget of $5,000 per month, $60,000 per year. They'd likely need an investment portfolio of $1,500,000 to fund that lifestyle. Having $30,000 (6 months) in savings would be wise for any emergencies. Let's say they can get an average yield of 4% per year in the bond market. A [TVM calculator](https://www.fncalculator.com/financialcalculator?type=tvmCalculator) shows that they'd need around $195,000 in bonds to have enough to cover them in a 5-year recession (inputs of $30,000 pmt, $0 FV, 4% annual rate, 7 semiannual periods). That's slightly less than 7 times $30,000 ($210,000) because the 4% per year will generate some returns over those 5 years. With that much set aside, they can comfortably invest the rest in the stock market knowing that ~~if~~ when a downturn comes, they can ride it out. Essentially, I'm just explaining how a retired person could justify having an allocation of 2% in cash ($30k / $1500k), 13% in bonds ($195k,$1500k), and 85% in stocks. That's actually quite an aggressive allocation compared to what most professionals recommend.

Critical-Werewolf-53

It’s three at most calculations you’re too lazy to do. 1) FV calc your current investments 2) FV calc your your investments after a house 3) FV calc rental income after expenses That’s it. You just suck at knowing how to look at your money. It’s not about opinions. It boils down to what you want not what Reddit would do. The faster you realize that the better. As for me I’m just fine selling two rental properties in the next three years each between 7-10 million. So yeah I’m good. But you need to ask the hard questions that you’re avoiding. What is it they you actually. Really. Want.

_TheGoogz

I have like $500 FV in quarters that I've collected since I was a kid and over the years and it just hurts my brain thinking about what it's worth. I feel like I should hit pause on silver and slam the Bid on ammo next...

crazybutthole

if your real emergency fund is $50k - you could invest lets say $20-25k of it split sveral ways to diversify so if shut hits the fan and you have to sell not every thing goes down at once. say for example - if you dont need the dividends $15-20k in BOXX (box spread ETF that pays better than most treasuries and does not pay dividends) $5k SPYM $5k IEFA (or similar international fund) $3k SBUG (or similar gold fund) $3k UTES (utilities) $3k FV (sector fund that avoids tech) $3k XLV (healthcare) $3k RDVY (rising dividend fund) with the exception of SPYM - i think at least a few of these will maintain their value or go up when SPYM drops. just my opinion. not financial advice.

timtam_z28

Pay yourself first (DCA into your 401k match or Roth IRA, doesn't matter, just do something, at least 5%). But the real concept that many don't realize, is understanding the future value of money. Every dollar I spend now vs investing it comes at an enormous cost. Just a $100 pair of shoes, what is $100 over 40 years with 7% annual interest? FV=100×(1+0.07)40≈$1,497.45 Say in one month in my 20s, I spend some money I really don't have to spend...I treat myself a bit...$100 (shoes)+$100 (clothes)+$200 (eating out)=$400. The compounded growth of this $400 over 40 years at a 7% annual interest rate is **$5,989.78**. Problem is, once I realized this I really struggled to spend any money, but I'm getting better about it. You do have to have balance. You do have to live now.

_TheGoogz

I saved rolls of Pre 1964 silver quarters when I was a kid and have \~$500 FV. The fact that shit is now $20k+ is doing serious damage to my brain. I need a drink.

BrisklyBrusque

Let’s math out how a 0.65% expense ratio versus 0.03% can erode a lifetime of earnings. Assumptions: - Annual contribution: $10,000 - Time horizon: 40 years - Market return before fees: 7% - Low-cost ER: 0.03% - High-cost ER: 0.65% Net annual returns: - Low-cost: 6.97% - High-cost: 6.35% Using the standard future value formula of annual contributions, FV = C * [((1+r)^n - 1) / r], you get: Low-cost fund (6.97%): (1.0697)^40 ≈ 11.99 FV ≈ $1,577,000 High-cost fund (6.35%): (1.0635)^40 ≈ 10.00 FV ≈ $1,417,000 Difference: about $160,000 lost to higher fees over the same 40-year period, even though both investors contributed the same amount and earned the same market return before expenses. This is the “tyranny of compounding costs”. Jack Bogle said it best: > Costs matter. A difference of even one percentage point per year can reduce your final wealth by two-thirds over a lifetime.

PlutosGrasp

Not sure why you wouldn’t zoom out and show something beyond 1 day. You didn’t mention starting capital or total additions either. 650k mortgage paid off as a 650k chunk or your starting mortgage was 650k and it was paid off to zero in 2022? FV=1.3+0.651 n=12, i=10% PV=620k OP did you start with 620k?

Tough_Plant_5680

Hell yeah AVLNF 

elScorXXo


Happy_Discussion_536

Game store is still overvalued. FV is around $15. It's worth buying below then.

Happy_Discussion_536

GME is still overvalued. FV is around $15. It's worth buying below then.

wtbpolariscookbook

I bought GOOG near April lows, was my largest position but trimmed at bit at 220 and most of it at 280. It’s a great business so feel good about owning the remainder but would probably exit if it realizes considerable upside beyond here and things overheat even more. There is no fear baked in to the stock price, it’s trading in line with peers and probably close to FV. The easy money here was made when it was irrationally mispriced in April. And really the prospects of the business, save for the antitrust ruling, haven’t changed since then. And it’s not a “hedge” against anything. I’m not a permabear or an AI Luddite but the current market environment closely mirrors speculative regimes like 2020-2021. It is highly probable that tech as a sector will experience a correction/drawdown that will similarly affect all of the MAG7. People trying to call tops or bubbles are idiots, all you can do as an individual investor is to be conscious of the risks you are taking and assess whether they are being adequately compensated. If you wanted to actually hedge against a tech drawdown, you should gradually de-risk your portfolio so you have cash to deploy if/when it happens. Or go long defensive quality type sectors that have been overlooked for the past year or so that will get rotated in to.

daviddjg0033

I am not sure what FV is of this stock after the dilution

SmallCapsOnly

Sure you could, but your extra payments would work for you more if invested in equities over the life of the loan. You would need to pay $1,300 extra per month to pay off the 50 year loan in 15 years. Those same $1,300 payments(15,600 annually) if instead invested in the market would grow to a value of $12,432,000(adjusted for inflation) over a 50 year period assuming 12% return on average assuming 3% avg inflation But now you’re thinking “okay but after I pay the loan off in 15 years I can put all that cashflow going to the mortgage and extra payments into the house into the market instead and that would be better” no it won’t. N: 35 years (not 50 because you spent 15 pumping into the mortgage instead) I: 8.7% (12% growth avg adjusted down for 3% annual inflation) PV: 0 PMTS: $40,864($15,600 from the additional $1,300 monthly payment and $20,264 from the mortgage payments excluding prop taxes and insurance cuz you still gotta pay that shit) FV: $8,953,000 So no it was still better to put that additional $1,300 to work and pay the mortgage down normally over 50 years. Thank you for reading my Ted talk. Also, buy $LENZ if you made it this far 😘

blueberrysmasher

Moot discussion as Tesla's FV targets are nearly improbable. Probable if Chinese EVs weren't dominating foreign markets at they have been doing.

Pocket_Juice_

me when the 100x PE ratio and FV companies in a staglflating economy aren’t infinitely going up💔💔

xk2600

every “bubble” flows differently. This really isn’t a bubble as much as a loop of dependency. Comparing AI bubble to dotcom is bad form IMHO. More like mortgage backed security and swaps exposure in 2008 as the comparable. The problem is right now all the risk is hedged by investors that only see FUTURE VALUE. Nvidia is so worried they’re going to undersell hardware or miss out on the future revenues they are trading discounts on current chips limiting their immediate margin on mostly guaranteed losses for ownership of investment in these AI companies in the hopes that one will win big and pay for all the failures. This effectively makes NVIDIA, Oracle, and Microsoft some of the largest angel investors in AI. Keep in mind AI is the product, not the Chip. All this FV leaves venture capital and banks more than willing to overvalue the future especially when everyone “knows” this will change everything… they just arent sure how yet. Granted, there will be companies that fail big from overplaying their hand with the possibilities of such potential. Personally, I do believe retail traders will hold the bag on this one and private equity will come out unscathed. This rollercoaster is far from over.

Canamerican726

PV = FV / (1+r)\^n; FV = 128 r = 0.088 n = 2 PV = 128 / 1.1664 = 109.77 Bad rounding lol, $110 I guess.

Puzzled_Giraffe6625

Hey! Wealthsimple is giving away a $1M home! Use my link to get $25 when you join, and enter the giveaway in the app. Terms and conditions apply. 8FV4YA https://wealthsimple.com/invite/8FV4YA 🎁

tlmarcott

I love both but dont need to model that often with OS. Always tracking portfolio and screening new opportunities with FV.

pythonTuxedo

You are correct that this is not interest. The price increasing at a rate of 7% per year looks exactly like compound growth. If you start with $100, at the end of year 1 you will have $107, at the end of year 2 you will have $114.49. You can work out how much you will have after n years using FV=PV(1+r)^(n)

St3w1e0

There's some even cheaper ones. 9361 is logistics related, 0.4x FV and the space has been getting takeovers. 7898 owns loads of New Zealand forest (actually one of the only ways to own NZ land as a foreign investor) yet trades at 0.25-0.5x fair value.

LiveLifeLevered

FV function in excel dawg.

00Anonymous

You have a great notion, though the execution needs a little work. To start off, this will be a 2 step process. The first step is to use a tvm calculator to determine our retirement nest egg goal. The second step will plot the way to achieving it.  Step 1: determining the total we need for retirement.  Here we take our desired annual income and multiply it by the number of years we expect to need it.  In this example, lets assume we retire at age 75 and expect to need 20 years of income and our required income is 100k per year.  >20×100,000 = 2 million  We need 2 million of today's money to cover retirement. To account for inflation we now need to use the tvm calculator to increase our goal number by our estimate for the future average rate of inflation between now and retirement.  >To do this we enter 2 million in the PV field, and enter some estimate of inflation in the interest rate field - in this case let's put 5%. In the payment field we put zero.  Then, we set the number of periods to the number of years to retirement multplied 12 months (inflation is measured monthly), let's use 20 ×12=240. Lastly, we solve for FV and get a total of 5,425,280.57, which is our nominal target to ensure we have the buying power of 2 million of today's money 20 years into the future.  Step 2 How to get to target Option A: the Bogglehead Calculation If you intend to VOO and chill, we can use the tvm calculator to figure out how much we need to buy each month to reach our goal of 5,425,280.57. First we change the interest rate to 8% (reflecting long term average s&p 500 returns). Then we set the PV to zero or the actual value of what you have invested so far. For this example we assume zero investments.  The number of periods stays the same. Lastly we leave payment blank and hit the pmt button to solve. This leaves us with 9,210.68 that we must invest in voo each month over the next 20 years to reach our target.  Option B: Figuring a target rate of return If you don't have a spare 9k each month to invest, all is not lost. We can use the tvm to solve for a target rate of return, using a payment number that works with our current budget. Assuming we can invest 1k per month, what rate of return do we need to reach goal in time?  We replace the 9k payment with 1k and leave the interest rate blank and hit the int button to solve. We get a target annual rate of return of 23.633%. So we'll  need a much more aggresive strategy than voo and chill or we need to find a way to increase our monthly contribution! Now that you have the hang if it you can model out different inflation and investment contribution levels to tailor your financial plan to your investment strategy. Easzy peezy! Note on interest rates: some tvm calculators want annualized interest rates and allow you to specify the frequency of compounding (ie monthly in this case) and some expect you to divide the annualized rate by the number of compounding periods per year, which in this example is 12. Likewise, when solving for INT some tvm calculators will return and annual rate and others will return the periodic rate and you'll have to multiply by the number of periods per year to get the annual rate. So be sure to read the how-to or manual for your calculator.  Note on sign conventions: the way the math works is that PV and FV must have opposite signs. This is just an artifact of the formula. When reporting PV and FV, be sure to take their absolute values to prevent confusion. Personally, I prefer the PV to be positive (unsigned) and the FV to be negative signed. 

ArthurDent4200

If you have excel, or probably just about any spreadsheet available. 2500 Monthly Deposit 120 number of months 9% Yearly growth =FV(0.09/12,120,-2500) or if the above three numbers are starting at A1: =FV(A3/12,A2,-A1) Result at 9% is $483,786 Of course, with the SP500 your 10 year average could be much higher or lower. Art

Happy_Discussion_536

Don't shoot me. I'm not an ape. I don't own any shares. But game company might actually be undervalued if they can sustain their current SGA levels. They also grew net sales an insane amount. I'm genuinely curious how. With bond income, their current earnings suggest it is worth $10B-$11B now. Which is what it's trading at now. Add in a little premium for the meme status and it might be FV or cheap.

Happy_Discussion_536

Not shorting at all. I'll buy at $15 I think it's FV there.

Critical_Concert_689

AFAIK, they have no moat. And their customers are fleeing in droves. And they have no new products yet - though they said they're redesigning like...30% of their entire product line ("desperation"). Every international expansion is seeing trouble. Trouble in China. Trouble in India. FV is like $100. ...So it'll probably rebound to the moon.

s_nes

Use your own jokes https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/6YQ3FV0grg

mklomp7

Well many analysts have LULUs FV anywhere from $315-$350/share. Tariffs have been priced in from the first massive dump & their business adaptation overseas should definitely outperform the minor setbacks within the US from tariff regulations. Therefore, should go up but that being said I’m not smart or rich.. hopefully this changes both of those setbacks.

Happy_Discussion_536

It seems to have hit a floor. But it's so overvalued (IMO FV is around $7.5B) that I don't see how they can get the price up a lot without grifting and hype.

Happy_Discussion_536

I honestly don't think so. But FV of company is around $7.5B. I'd buy it if it went there.

rackoblack

Morningstar has them at three stars, a hold. Their FV price is $120, so their barely undervalued. Their strong buy (\*\*\*\*\*) price is $72. Read their writeups if you want to see why (Premium is free at the library or subscribe yourself).

rackoblack

Morningstar has them at 80% of FV, four star buy.

rackoblack

NVO is four stars, fair value (FV) share price is $71

Happy_Discussion_536

What is the actual FV of game store? I say it's somewhere around $12-$13. They have net cash of $10/share and cash flow positive, no more bleeding. So it is minimum worth that.

IncidentSome4403

Just another retard but 40 is about where I’ve got FV rn

groceriesN1trip

They’ve had this FV estimate for a while now

WPG_Strong

blows my mind how a ghey bear can look at a 20 billion profit generating power house trading at 50% FV and think this is a good stock to short

ConfidentTapwater

🤣 nah FV is $1,000

Marko-2091

Next step in the meme play: the D-FV guy posts some sort of meme. Elon already did, it is only that other guy

tired_ani

I love their FV and basic summary of the company. Such a nice starting point.

elgrandorado

Morningstar switching Analysts and jacking up their fair value estimate on Constellation Software is really funny to me. I like looking at their FV estimates for low growth and their analyst reports in general. The problem I have is the way their analysts estimate FV for high growth companies is often SO conservative.

sundubone

VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) 500 of the largest U.S. companies or VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) which is about 100% of the U.S. stock market. VTI is more diversified so more risk. Conservative scenario would be around 8% total returns less expenses with dividends reinvested so 175k invested for 15 years; future value would be roughly $550K Optimistic is around 12% so FV is estimated to be about 1 million. Use a future value calculator and play with the numbers

Rando1ph

I did one trade and made a spreadsheet; I've got the data. 10 shares at 100.27. filled 1002.70 1:12 PM. Sold 10 shares at 100.28 filled 1002.80 at 2:45 PM. So yeah, just a dime on a grand... so 50 cents a day, Which gives me 133.90 a year compounding (=FV(13.39%,1,0,1000)\*-1) I mean it is there, if someone wants to put in the effort.

Rando1ph

I did one trade and made a spreadsheet; I've got the data. 10 shares at 100.27. filled 1002.70 1:12 PM. Sold 10 shares at 100.28 filled 1002.80 at 2:45 PM. So yeah, just a dime on a grand... so 50 cents a day, Which gives me 133.90 a year compounding (=FV(13.39%,1,0,1000)\*-1) I mean it is there, if someone wants to put in the effort.

uqubar

MP News... [https://www.investors.com/news/mp-materials-stock-soars-pentagon-launches-rare-earths-war-china/?mod=IBD\_FV](https://www.investors.com/news/mp-materials-stock-soars-pentagon-launches-rare-earths-war-china/?mod=IBD_FV)

SukaSupreme

I've mostly bet on small cap and often pre-profit companies hoping for eventual high returns. Especially bullish on Scandium Canada (SCD.TO), and I'm up a high double digit on Aclara Resources (ARA.TO). Also in MILI Military Metals and FV Frontier Lithium.

Extra_Progress_7449

Fixed-Income ETFs are good but DO require cyclical management....they are not set and forget; they are also not Value-Based products, meaning the Value is not in the strike but the Distributions. Almost all the good ones are 1x Leveraged...the great ones are 2-3x but annual distributions (so Day-trader products). \---- If you want comfort without management, look into Preferred Stocks (no DRIP)....make sure you buy in less than its Face Value (FV). For instance, >$STRK is currently at a $5-6 Premium ($105.68/sh), it has a $100 FV; however, it pays $8/yr (8% \* FV) with a quarter distribution of $2; Technically you would have recovered the Premium after the 3rd quarter and it is Perpetual with no real Call Data, it has a Earliest Call Date. >$SOJD is currently at a $5+/- Discount ($19.93/sh), it has a $25 FV, pays out 1.2375 (4.95% \* FV) each year with distributions quarterly (0.309375/qtr); It has a Call Date of 1/30/2080, yes 2-0-8-0 You need to assess your own risk and ability to manage, that will identify which instruments you choose. LETFs can exceed 70% ROI in a single year; MSTY is on track to be 130-160% Yield.....Their caveat is NAV erosion if mismanaged or their strategy is too weak for the holdings IV.

Stonktraderr69420

Yes this is the compound interest formula. Future Value equals the principle or initial deposit. Multiplied by one plus the annual interest rate divided by the number of times the interest compounds per year. Risen to the times interest compounds times the number of years. FV: Future Value P: Principal investment R: Annual interest rate as decimal ie 9%=.09 N: Number of times interest compounds per year T: Number of years money is invested for Example: FV=1000(1+.05/4)^(4*15) FV would equal $2107.18. So this is i invest 1000 over 15 years at a 5% annual interest rate and in this instance compounding 4x per year. Compounding rates will differ depending on different investment products/vehicles. This formula also doesn't account for dollar cost averaging so this FV amount can substantially change due to consistent investments. I am not a financial advisor, and all investments are subject to market loss.

Stonktraderr69420

FV=P(1+r/n)^(nt)

VegasBjorne1

To make a point, use this math equation as to compounded returns… Future Value = Contribution x (1 + *i*)^n, where *i* = average rate of return, n = number of years invested. For example: Let’s assume $6,000 IRA contribution, 8% average annual stock market return and 45 years to retirement. The FV equals $207,493. That’s just one year of a single contribution! Use the same numbers, but delay 20 years and only 25 years of investment time. The FV equals only $49,091! It is only a quarter of the size! Using that same formula allows one to play “what-if” on returns, contributions and investment years. It’s a good tool to understand the importance of investing early.

St3w1e0

All the modelling I've run gets me to $200-250 as a base case scenario. Discounting back at 10% that gets a FV of $100-150 depending on whether you think ASTS can reach scale in 5-10 years. So I would be a seller in that range.

Scrapper_John

I just used a time value of money calculator. PV:-395,340.74 PMT: -1,958.33 APR: 7% 300 months = FV 3,849,878.77027 Then for your 8 years of no payment PV: -3,849,878.77027 PMT: 0 APR: 7% 84 months = FV 6,275,279.50442.

Jeff__Skilling

All gas turbine manufacturers are - think most are trading in the high teens / low twenties on an FV / 2025E EBITDA basis OP essentially asked "Hey guys, where's the free lunch I'm looking for w/r/t electrification?"

AnyPortInAHurricane

did you calculate the FV at the time of your buy fill. I suspect it was way off

VegasBjorne1

The entire economy is predicated upon growth, as an obvious example of the GDP, and by extension, publicly traded companies and their stocks. As companies grow, then so does their stock price. Reasonable investors will advocate an index fund such as VOO as it diversifies risks while providing better net returns than actively managed funds. A simple formula to play around with future values with a one-time contribution would be FV = (1+*i*)^n * P, where *i* = average rate of return, n = years invested and P = Principle. Play around with average returns and years invested, and the impact becomes huge.

ArthurDent4200

The value of projection is to assure yourself that you are saving enough. I see posts from people who think that putting $200/month will leave them with a healthy retirement nest egg. A quick self education on the "=FV()" function in Excel would be a good idea for anyone starting their journey. This is also a good idea for people who plow money into their IRAs not thinking about what will happen when the RMDs come around (me). To do a projection while buying individual stocks is somewhat pointless but a diversified portfolio or index fund with a decent history can be enlightening. Art

RelevantHelicopter82

Compass and AMD. Both reached their FV targets.

Jeff__Skilling

> How can they be unrealistic if the board’s own analysis showed that Tesla is projected to achieve the metrics? Because the rise in price didn't come from incremental cash flow vs expectations. They came from [unbelievable multiple expansion](https://imgur.com/a/eQrbs8d) -- going from mid-20.0x FV / NTM EBITDA multiple in 2018 to over 80.0x at it's peak in ~2ish years later would be a pretty unrealistic assumption, short of TSLA figuring out cold fusion or owning a monopoly on self driving cars. The rise in market cap is fairly impossible to achieve, **assuming that TLSA's valuation multiple remained fairly steady over that period**. The cashflow math just doesn't work out. But if you're NTM EBITDA multiple quadruples during that period of time? Fairly easy to hit.

radduder

$SMCI VS $PLTR: Supermicro’s 2024 yearly revenue was $14.99B. 😯 $42 stock + 22 P/E. Palantir’s 2024 yearly revenue was a measly $2.7B. 🫤 $130 stock + 560 P/E. Supermicro just announced an additional $20B revenue stream making FV $200. 🤯 https://preview.redd.it/zrpu7hheao0f1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=130413840f6b8e47278305d07dae94ae32135162

Updraft999

Recession is not even very likely lol On Monday, after that threat eased, Oxford Economics cut its recession probability to 35% from better-than-even odds previously. Oxford also increased its full-year GDP forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3% in 2025, saying tariffs, supply-chain stress and uncertainty will all lead to the economy growing below its potential.  “Good things are in the pipeline for the economy next year from deregulation, fiscal stimulus, and less policy uncertainty,” Oxford chief economist Ryan Sweet said in a research note https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/what-the-u-s-china-tariff-rollback-means-for-the-american-economy-7bfc05f6?st=u1C3FV&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Crazy_Donkies

Thank you. His broad generalization and textbook definitions don't seem to meet my "measure of return." Most financial models (IRR, NPV, DCF, PV, FV) require a period of time. Yes Im sure his definitions are correct. Yes stocks only go up. However, in practice measurements are time bound.

Soft_Walrus_3605

Their calc seems to take that into account, though they don't say it. $400 mil today is like $60 mill in 1974 dollars. At about 11% annual growth of the S&P500 while reinvesting dividends, he'd have FV≈60,000,000×(1.11)^50=11.0 billion dollars Someone else check my math

mom_of_stiffler

I've found it under 6FV.F (in €).

elpresidentedeljunta

You can´t make this shit up. [The guy, who just taunted and humiliated all the nations enquiring over trade deals begs China to make him an offer...](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-presses-china-tariff-offer-182344161.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALhHqEGuHEzmEw293GkE1dWFMtYIU86MFwMIAPQ56RTo8igA4tmiNV9WWT8ZL7LuRyz3upd_I3AwP4CK8GLHyfpVJBOYZkWKyHI949IY5RWxGq4FV2SA-XYsJ-HnDtMLibZJqi1Oi5AL6lAfojGwkL9iO6L6bMCujXgGBKRprdIK)

ShortRevolution6368

Tariffs\_policy\_FV15\_FINAL\_FINAL\_EDIT.pdf

CardiologistEqual336

Tariffs_policy_FV15_FINAL2_EDIT.pdf

Wyldefire6

Tariffs_policy_FV15_FINAL2_EDIT.pdf ftfy

FriedRice2682

Tariffs_policy_FV15.pdf

FriedRice2682

Tariffs_policy_FV15.pdf

Spare-Dingo-531

DADDY TRUMP IS HOME!!! Remember, [the tariffs hurt Daddy just as much as they hurt you](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6Ms6FV2J28E).

_moonbear

Why isn’t this the play? 350k FV at 30 years is $3.5M for 8% interest, FV for payments at $15,609 ($1,300 rent each month) a year for 30 years is $1.8M, so from a liquidity perspective selling is the right choice. That doesn’t factor in the house value though, which if it grows 4% annually would be at $1.1M. Still less than selling it, but close enough it becomes closer to even especially when you factor in tax considerations Personally I would keep the house because it gives you more freedom if you have to slow down payments, as well for protection against rent increases if you live in an area that blows up in popularity. The ironic thing is keeping the house is actually much riskier investment than holding an ETF because you could see the opposite, a large event that destroys your house value either through weather/economics.

OutlandishnessOk3310

I think a large amount of the sell is driven from political or moral differences with the way Mr Mush has conducted himself recently. The sales drops in most Western countries are not going to simply rebound overnight regardless of any tune change or price drop you might see. The impact will last a number of years with people tied into PCP, PCH or lease contracts gagging to send the cars back but currently unable to. This is going to he cataclysmic to 2nd hand tesla values and subsequently put more pressure on new car pricing. I'm not sure what his game is but alienating yourself from core market segment is not smart. I genuinely believe that this will go down as the all time great of people who successfully destroyed their company by doing/saying something stupid. I don't think there is much that he can say that is going to reassure hedge funds that there isn't more downside risk. I have FV around $125~$150 range, and will be playing puts until at least $175 (THE PREMIUMS ARE NUTS)

rosaparkus

Tough to see losses. You don’t want be day trading in your TFSA as if you were to have huge wins they may still tax you. Several cases where it’s been ruled as business income rather than investment account. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tfsa-red-flags-canadians-broke-021500446.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACLuTtsrOAlt0XJiLxMcR6iggn3pY6hYzSGEAIgJSzcZXVqRXr_D3FV_SbgZGE2SlaUjl7ZlGc4NSf_4CVp6rzAMcbQQIyH6xrmGiKqqOydjMtMXsvMlYgsCoxGyMSYVBoVzgX_XEw-RdwobbQbr-zp6j9mrhPXFnNr6bL5VU7AK