General Motors Company
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Rivian Puts usually make me money. Do you guys really think Rivian can survive in the brutal car industry??? People who buy trucks are super picky,traditional, and are usually loyal to a certain brand. Ford, GM, and Ram(Stellantis) DOMINATE the industry. They are introducing electric trucks.
Let's do some simple math then, let's assume Tesla will maintain a 50% CAGR on net income this decade. It'll likely be a lot higher in the next 2-4 years, and lower near the end, but on average 50% seems likely. 5.5 * 1.5 ^ 8 = $141B Meanwhile GM is at $6.4B and will decline throughout the decade and probably become negative as they switch to EVs. They also have a serious risk of bankruptcy as their $100B in net debt (more than their market cap) is collateralized by EVs which will lose value throughout the decade. It's not strange that Tesla is 12x more expensive when GM will at best be doing 1/22th Tesla's net income by the end of the decade, at worst they'll be bankrupt.
Lol, your arrogance while being wrong is telling how smart you actually are. Telling others they don't know what PE is, while earnings came out AH yesterday and hasn't been updated is hilarious. You should short Tesla and go long on GM. Do you have any skin in the game or just blowing hot air?
Tesla's PE is not 250 anymore, it's now 100. Its dropped from 1000 to 100 in the space of a year because of how fast they are growing earnings. That will continue and so their PE will continue to drop. You don't invest in a company that's going to go bankrupt (GM, _et al_), you invest in the company that is growing earnings and is going to overtake even Apple.
I don’t quite agree with your comparison. If that was the case then we’d see market share move from TSLA into GM, F, RVN, NIO, etc.. Sure, that may have been the general case a few months ago when this EV craze was at its peak, however, all of these other names are down even worse than TSLA. TSLA will always be the market leader in EV & I think other EVs imitate TSLAs behavior.
Yeah, agreed! It’s one of the incredibly annoying things of the digital world (at least it’s annoying for me)! Addressing the 250k part first. No, I definitely don’t think the conversion is going to be 1m orders to 250k deliveries. Sorry if that’s what my response seemed to suggest. The 250k number came from the earnings call today; Elon said that is what they were targeting for production per year. That seems to be an ambitious number for first year production, and seemed to be the production goal after ramp (could be wrong but that’s what it seemed like he was saying on the call). However, my take is that number of 250k is way to small once Austin has ramped. In terms of conversion on a numbers basis, not strictly a specific order to sale but rather total sales versus order book before production starts, I’d realistically expect at least a 75% conversion. The Maverick seems to be a neat truck and has received positive reviews, however, it’s in a completely different market segment, and don’t think it is a meaningful competitor to vehicles in the larger truck segment so I don’t expect it to be stealing sales. I have a hard time seeing a buyer interested in a Cybertruck going to a Maverick. Personally, I think Rivian is going to experience a lot of difficulty, and despite being first to market with a relatively small number of vehicles it’s going to struggle delivering any meaningful numbers within the next two years before the Ford and Tesla are producing the Lightning and the Cybertruck in six digit volumes. I think in the high interest environment we’re headed, Rivian is going to have a hard time raising the capital it needs to continue operations and expanding, especially in light of its cash burn and it’s market cap coming back to earth. So, I don’t think Rivian is going to be doing much in the space either numbers wise, despite being first to sell electric pickups. Ford I think has its act relatively together with the Lightning, and is really going all out with it. They’ve put some great features into it, and are targeting meaningful numbers. I think it’s going to be the closest competitor to Tesla in terms of unit sales against the Cybertruck. It will be interesting to see how dealers behave and if they’re going to play nice, and whether Ford itself will be able to hit its target numbers. It helps that the F-150 already has the clout it does in the US so I expect positive things from the F150, including as a function of how they’re positioning the vehicle, which includes leverage their product segment experience and making the vehicle attractive to fleet customers. Regarding GM, I’m more pessimistic about them. Personally, I think the Hummer is a giant joke, no pun intended. The Silverado has some neat features, particularly with the cargo area, however, it’s a little confusing who they’re actually targeting with the truck. It seems to be straddling some weird middle ground between a lifestyle truck and a work truck, without nailing either. Its also hard to believe GM’s numbers based on their track record and all round approach to EVs. They’ve announced twenty odd models by 2025 and a target of 1 million vehicles. So they’re planning on selling how many Silverados? What’s the point of the other models? As Tesla pointed out on their call, increasing the number of new models has a negative impact on the total amount of units they can produce because it saps resources in too many directions at once. Ford is pushing the Mach-e and the Lightning while GM seems to be chasing who knows what. So with that said, I expect the Lightning to be there alongside the Cybertruck in meaningful numbers. I think the market segment is so large that there’s way more demand than manufactures can produce. In terms of the Cybertruck specifically, I think it’s going to attract both existing truck people and also people who haven’t owned a truck before, such as myself. The Cybertruck is going to expand truck market even further in the US, in my opinion. Over the years we’ve seen buyer move from minivans to SUVs, and in the past few years we’ve seen people move from SUVs into trucks.
Let's say a million people want electric trucks period. How much capacity is being built to satisfy demand across all makers? 2022 I estimate 100k e-trucks being produced (mainly based on Ford pledging 140k and not hitting that target due to battery constraints). 2023 GM may produce 50k, Tesla hits 100k, Ford actually delivers 140k. 2024 Tesla hits 250k, Ford may hit 200k, and GM may produce 100k. I'm being generous to F and GM here as I don't think they'll have three batteries or institutional fortitude to ramp EVs (unions, dealerships, and legacy thinking are all headwinds for them on top of batteries) but even in this scenario, Tesla is going exponential while legacy can go linear at best. To sum up, I think 250k sales commitments is conservative, and will be realized by end of 2025.
Oh, I didnt realize Tesla and China had the lithium market cornered. How silly of me to think GM and F already have suppliers lined up. Who knew the mining CEOs were just going to laugh them away. Well, everyone should just surrender. That's it. No lithium to go around.
LMAO. You are ignoring that GM was already at 10s if thousands per year before they had to take the bolt off the market. Also, GMs number is a hope and a dream that they may or may not hit vs Teslas sales targets are automatic. More importantly are you going to ignore all the supply chain shit I just told you and move the goal posts like a child?
It's getting there. But Tesla is strained to produce 1 million cars . And doing so used up all the resources at their disposal. Pushing the truck and Semi out indefinitely. GM and F will be adding a million cars per year as a side project essentially.
So in 5 years , GM will go from 26 cars to a million. And then it doubles up every 2.5 years after as they bring new factories online. How long did it take Musk blundering his way through mass production to get to a million cars ? 2 decades ?
Agreed, but Tesla's market cap is 941 B. while GM's 76B. Tesla's margins are great but still has less net income than GM while being 12x more expensive. Maybe I can't see the full picture here but I really have a hard time justifying theses numbers.
GM has already failed. The whole reason we are here is because they thought a new kid on the block was a joke. How exactly does GM or Ford plan to catch up to Tesla? Imagine if GM or Ford came out and said they plan on overtaking VW and Toyota; they’d get laughed at. However, apparently they’re going to overtake Tesla? How? If you’re response is “they’ve been making cars for longer,” you have little appreciation for how change works.
The thing is. Both F and GM will increase productivity exponentially the minute the newest factories come online. You can be a Tesla fan all you want. I am. But to dismiss the expertise in mass production of legacy automakers is just tuning out facts you don't like.
Another point, Companies like Ford, GM, VW and Bentley are going to only increase the demand for semiconductors due to higher demand for EV. TSLA as an energy company won't be in full fruition until supply chain distruptions subside.
Everything tesla does is great - I can't argue against that. They kick ass and will continue to their competitors' kick asses. Nobody will catch them soon. My point is that there is only so much ass they can kick. If they were overvalued 10-fold but were a dinky startup with tons of room to grow one could optimistically expect them to grow into their valuation. But they're already valued several times more than any other car company. If they grew into Ford's or GM's sales numbers they'd still be overvalued several times. If you plot the best-case, ass-kicking arc and look at where they'd be in 5 or 10 years you can't possibly justify a trillion dollar valuation. Again, I'm not hating on Elon, EVs, or TSLA - they're all remarkable. I'm saying the market has placed *way* too much value on even the best-case earnings future TSLA could hope to have.
Beating earnings justifiably bolsters the optimism for the company. But their market cap is as big as the next 10 combined (and that includes other wildly inflated stinker EV companies). Would you rather have 1% of tesla's profits for the next 50 years or 1% of the combined profits of GM, Ford, Honda, Toyota, Daimler, VW, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan Subaru, and BMW? I didn't crunch the numbers so I could be over or under a bit, but you get the drift. Remember, other companies are fast getting into the EV and self-driving space. Tesla has a significant headstart and is clearly the leader but do you think they'll beat the entire industry by *that* much? Again, I love the company, what they do, and how they've done it. It's simply not a trillion dollar company.
They've spent decades cutting costs and outsourcing their production to their suppliers. They do 'mass assembly', not 'mass production'. They are scrambling to build an EV supply chain instead... GM sold less than 30 EVs last year. Redditors told us 5 years ago that Tesla was doomed because GM would crush them.
They are still growing at a rapid rate. People who think that the competition can churn out EVs will match Tesla are dreaming. Tesla is finally clicking on all cylinders while GM is producing 26 EVs last quarter and Rivian is producing 1000 a year. By the time the competition catches up, Tesla will be producing multiple models including a sub $30k that will replace all the Camries.
Tesla still relies upon Panasonic cells. All that Tesla has is the charging network and the efficiency. That is huge for Tesla and is what keeps them dominating the market along with hype. However, when it comes to quality and price, Tesla is not it at all. Tesla is marketing their card as luxury but they do not compete in the luxury market at all and the Model 3 is marketed as affordable but MSRP is $45k. As competitors improve 3rd party charging and manufacturers such as Ford and GM come out with better EVs Tesla dominance is going to be under at a huge risk. That being said $TSLA is probably still bullish for at least 5+ years because combustion engines are so cheap cheap that adoption of electric and an electric charging network will take way longer than any of the ones hating on $TSLA will say. Screw the vehicles, superchargers will maintain TSLA as a market leader for a while.
Not even close to the same thing lol. No big companies execs lobby the front desk clerk at a random public company. The general manager at best buy isn't making legislation relevant to the industry. A car salesman at GM isn't connected to hundreds of big time insiders that can give him tips about upcoming activity. And the NFL players betting on games is due to an obvious conflict of interest - same with people who make the laws betting on the things their laws impact.
Ok Google said around 55% made in America is the norm for the new f150s. My ram says 72% of this vehicle was made in usa. And it's a 2010. Just keep doubting if you want, but more and more of the parts and supplies are coming from china. Sorry to burst your bubble. I applaud GM for wanting to manufacture their own battery cells. That's a good way to keep the percentage usa up, but even the "us manufacturers" have been sourcing cheap parts for years
Here’s why I think Tesla will pop 10-15% AH from earnings: they’ll post record profits from record deliveries, give great guidance from expected model Y growth outperforming model 3 by 2023 and expected record deliveries of cybertruck reservations, and Elon mass tweeting is bullish. he also tweeted “😉” when Jim Farley tweeted GM is leading the EV revolution.
Ford is but a baby in EV. They have many hurdles to jump through - evident by all the recalls. Not only that, their EV sales make up <5% of all their sales. They are still boomers. Different than say Tesla that have already figured out the intricacies of EV auto making. Not only that, they have in house, kick ass engineers as opposed to companies like Ford who contract out and have trouble with out of house programming and coding. Puts on Ford and GM.
I got 2 positions: 1. Am balls deep into $LCID puts ( (Lucid has big losses, almost no sales (P/S: 91000 - you read that correctly, and a $60B market cap. The luxury EV competition is brutal (Porsche, Jaguar, Mercedes, BMW, Cadillac, Audi, etc). Competitors have developed awesome new tech like solid state batteries (Toyota) and self-driving cars (GM/Cruise). 2. Cash. Here I am worried about more tension with China after the Beijing Winter Olympics ends. Russia is already flexing. But China could also start soon. Any thoughts on my 2 positions?
>on What the other guys said, plus that market sentiment could become more bearish. So you could end up having: 1. Macro: Higher rates (because the FED has to fight inflation) - this will crush the valuation of companies that have yearly big losses, almost no sales and P/S over 10. Even a small increase of 1% can drive valuations 20+% for many growth stocks. Example: Companies like LCID that have a forward P/E below 0, and a P/S of 91000 - will get crushed. 2. Macro: A FED that starts reducing its balance sheet (because the FED has to fight inflation) - this will also hit company valuations of our days Dotcom companies anyone with a high P/S and a high P/E. Again, if the company doesn't have a forward P/E above 0, and a high P/S, then they will get crushed. 3. Sentiment: Many small investors did well last year. But now that they keep seeing daily losses we could see a sell-off. The assetts that fall the most will likely be the ones that are sold the most. 4. Sentiment: We now have bitcoin under $40k which I think is a sign that the sentiment is turning bearish. If the fall continues, that signals real fear in the market. 5. Finally we are seeing increased geopolitical tension. I think that not only Russia, but also China will start flexing its muscle after the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics (2/20/2022). If the Russia conflict does not resolve. Or if China starts making moves on Taiwan, then the sentiment will be affected. All in all, not my favorite environment to buy stocks. I also don't like to profit from war. Disclaimer: I am a retard. I myself am balls deep in LCID puts (almost no sales, huge losses, $60B market cap and competitors have awesome tech like solid state batteries(Toyota) and self-driving cars (GM/cruise). I am also sitting on cash.
Meh, there's so much gas vehicles to replace, companies like GM and Ford aiming for 1 million vehicles by 2025 (which some wont even reach) is not going to affect Tesla. Tesla will sell every car they can make this decade. Tesla will already be selling 5-6M vehicles by 2025. Also, Tesla has 30% margins right now on their vehicles and it's going to go up to 35-40% in 2 years. Legacy automakers barely make any profit or even lose money on their electric vehicles. Good luck if Telsa decides to lower their margins a little to make their prices more competitive.
It’s market cap is 3x Toyota 17x Honda 13x GM 12x Ford 9x VW TSLA has a P/E of 304 Even taking into consideration their growth, they have a PEG ratio of 2.8 The only reason sites like Zacks have it ranked as a buy is momentum and technicals. Buy it because everyone else is. It is no doubt a profitable company, but there is no way I am paying that much for them.
Really? What good news are you seeing? We're sending 8.5k troops to NATO, inflation is bad (people are spending more on essentials less on non-essential), interest rates are going to be increased, GM reporting really bad supply chain issues. I dunno. I think we're in for at least a fairly bad state of affairs. To chalk it up to, "oh, people are just worried about inflation", is a gross mischaracterization of market sentiment.
Literally just today GM announced they're building a $7 billion battery facility. That's just one example out of hundreds of companies coming for Tesla. It's undeniable that there will be tons of competition moving into the future. Personally, my money is on Ford.
> Even with their green energy products they should not be valued at more than 400 billion max, especially since the cars are the main business and they are about to get massive competition. What makes you think a PE of 33 would be reasonable for a company growing unit sales by 90%, revenues by 70%, net income by 700% last year with no signs of slowing down. That's a PEG ratio of between 0.1 and 0.25. Makes no sense. > GM just announced a 6 billion investment in EV cars to try and dethrone Tesla as #1 in that space. I don't think you've been paying attention. Even if GM hits their own targets for 2025, they'll be at 1M EV sales. Tesla already has a higher annual capacity than that TODAY, and they're expected to 4M+ by 2025. > and even then they still don't deserve a 100-300 PE. ALmost no company does. I'm sorry, but this is the dumbest thing I've heard around here in weeks. A company that's growing earnings 300% per year ABSOLUTELY deserves a PE of 300. Even more so, there's not a single large cap ($1T+) in the world with a lower PEG ratio than 1.
Tesla reminds me of a large scale "Oculus" Great idea, first to market in a real way, take the world by storm, other larger more money "real" companies think "HUH..." and then given enough time, they do it better, for cheaper, and with all their spread...and then people go "Oh yeah..Oculus, didn't they have the first mainstream VR headset?" you think VW group can't do this....GM.......Ford....come on. Tesla isn't going anywhere anytime soon, but them as king of the EV mountain isn't going to last forever. I mean Ford is 20 bucks a share.
I just bought a in the money call option on GM, to try and sell covered calls (or poor mans covered calls) but when i try and do that Robinhood is telling me i don't have enough collateral. as far as i understood, you can sell covered calls, once you bought the call option. Thanks guys
Even with their green energy products they should not be valued at more than 400 billion max, especially since the cars are the main business and they are about to get massive competition. GM just announced a 6 billion investment in EV cars to try and dethrone Tesla as #1 in that space. This reminds me of Netflix. They had the big headstarter and huge multiple based on the fact that for years they had little competition, but now the competition is starting to eat their lunch. It is therefore not a sure thing that TSLA can continue growing much and in this market climate when all the high fliers are being taken to the woodshed, watch out below for TSLA unless they can knock it out of the park on multiple fronts, and even then they still don't deserve a 100-300 PE. ALmost no company does.
>GM to spend $6.6 billion on EV plant investments in bid to dethrone Tesla in electric car sales by 2025 \>[cnbc.com/2022/01/25/gm-…](https://t.co/h7GxdSI6v4) ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2022-01-25 ^11:05:00 ^EST-0500
>\*GM to Convert Suburban Detroit Factory for Production of Electric Pickup Trucks -- WSJ \> \*GM Plans to Spend $4 Billion to Convert Orion Assembly Factory \>\*GM to Split $2.6 Billion Cost of Battery Plant With LG Energy Solution $GM ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-01-25 ^11:01:01 ^EST-0500
>GM ACCELERATES DRIVE TO LEAD EV INDUSTRY WITH $7 BLN INVESTMENT IN MICHIGAN, CREATING 4,000 NEW JOBS AND RETAINING 1,000 $GM ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2022-01-25 ^11:00:23 ^EST-0500
Ford cannot make EVs at a profit so the consumer will go where there is production. I have zero doubt ford will sell all their lightnings. They just cannot make very many of them because they don’t have ev capacity or the willingness to bleed their core profitable business for one that is not profitable or for which they have no clue how to adequately supply batteries to meet the demand. Your naive assumption that fleets will not buy Tesla’s is false and rather inconsequential. If a fleet operator realizes $1M in savings from lower cost of fuel and zero maintenance of EVs. And Ford and GM have inferior products that cannot be purchased because they have limited manufacturing capacity, the fleets will buy Teslas. This is already demonstrated with Hertz buying every model 3 at full price that Tesla can deliver. You just have broken thinking. No stres though because you are not alone. Investment firms were certain that no serious person would buy an iPhone over a blackberry. That was fu+king wrong. Just like you are.
You ought to actually learn something about Tesla. Imagine that a new segment of a market is growing exponentially yet only one firm can make this product for this new segment profitably. As competitive firms try to move into this segment they are constrained by losses on this new segment. All the while the profitable firm can fund its growth from cash flows, which are enormous. The cash flows from the competitive firm come from the shrinking segment and as the exponentially growing segment increases those cash flows decrease. 100% of the time the firm profitably delivering the desired product will destroy the firms trying to fund a transition to new product with shrinking cash flows. If you own $F or $GM right now you should not own individual stocks.
Tesla is, very simply, in front of everybody else. Not only in the technology they have now, but in the way they work: total excellence in hiring, extreme stinginess in spending, consequent vertical integration, and innovation as a way of life. There is no way Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford or those muppets at GM can keep pace.
Ford and GM aren't growing their earnings at anywhere near the same pace as Tesla. [This is from Q3](https://twitter.com/forwardcap/status/1464961280138174466?s=20), and Tesla's Q4 will be even better... What real numbers have Tesla's EPS at 4.2 by year-end 2022? They did 1.44 in Q3 and will do ~2.5 in Q4. Even if you annualized the Q3 figure they'd still be higher than your 4.2. Do you think Tesla, a company that sells every vehicle they make, in a year with two new massive factories coming online, will shrink in 2022? A 10 EPS for 2022 is very conservative, which would put the forward PE under 100 today. Note: there are people that track deliveries for Tesla (you can check their track record if you'd like), see what they're saying for Q1 2022. Don't sleep on Tesla.
Yes you should, don't overthink it. The S&P peaked around $4800. If you are a long term investor you should expect the index to far exceed that in the future so every dollar you can buy under $4800 is a discount. Sure there is the risk you buy more at $4200 and then it stops to $4000 but remember you're still buying under the ATH so its still a discount. Note this applies to index investing but not stocks. A stock that goes down isn't necessarily going to rebound. If you bought Ford on sale for $29 in 1999 you are still underwater on that stock. If you bought GM in 1999 you lost everything due to bankruptcy.
Well, no. But even if it was, Ford's is 9.6 and GM's is 7.8. Analysts that have it under 100 had it around 100 a year ago, too. I'll keep using real numbers. For them to have a P/E of 100 in a year, the stock price needs to drop under 420. They're not going to just magically get huge increases in margins with increasing competition.
Im all about puts on PTON at 25 for sure, wait for Powell to talk on Wednesday for direction of the market. Love Sofi for the long haul. GM sleeping giant may wanna keep that on watch buying as much as I can when I can. I see white gold in their future....good luck in your investments fellow trader don't forget to do your own DD!
Do you know how debt GM has from their old rediculous pensions? That's why the stock will never be worth much. Ford too. Ford got lucky it got picked up by retail memeing. I would head for the exit on GM even though I like the future of the company and really like Mary Barra