GM

Jimq45

They’ve never made a profit, now they have more competition from a well known name. Not only is GM a well known name - Carvana and Vroom are relative leaders in the space…never heard of Shift.

shicken684

In regards to Tesla, I think a lot of people are going to be shocked at how quickly they're shoved to the side. Every single car manufacture is about to absolutely unload in the EV sector the next two years. Many of which have already caught up or surpassed Tesla in areas. New Ioniq 5 can charge twice as fast as a Model Y, and likely has all it needs for autopilot on the highways. Ford is going to beat them to market with the Lightning. VW has a ton of offerings in the pipeline, Hyundai/Kia will be pushing out model after model with their new system. GM has the Ultium system coming online with multiple battery plants going online this year. It is going to be VERY competitive by the end of 2022, and if Tesla can't fix their fit and finish by then they're going to be crash and burn fast.

LargeMain

Wow sad how you got two down votes on that lol, this isn’t the sub for crypto I guess these guys like their GM and WMT stocks😂

sirideletereddit

Owned 2 BTC at one point. Don’t now. Had GME calls at oct of 2020, sold during the initial pump to $32. Had 50 GM calls that were bought in April of 2020 would all be worth over 2k each now if I didn’t sell them all for a 50% gain. Had F calls similar to the above, but would equate to an even higher number now. Had SHIB, sold during a pump much below the top, didn’t even bother to equate how much that would have been. If you’re doing it right your biggest mistakes won’t be losses, they’ll be missed opportunities.

upsidevalue

No way 3-4 (god forbid more or just one massive hike in March) rate hikes are priced in yet. GM DIS might be okay. But the other ones will see continued downward movement.

IAmInTheBasement

Just a couple of points. I wouldn't exactly say their factory works more efficient. Fremont is larger now than it was when it was a Toyota and GM factory. Shanghai is approaching a 700,000 unit run rate, which is pretty good. Austin and Berlin are next generation and even larger. Also as Austin and Berlin ramp to their production targets and Shanghai continues to expand Tesla will pass forward in terms of global production by 2026, hardly a decade away.

Dmoan

Here are some beaten down stocks from last week that I have added and are worth looking at: DIS, SQ, DKS, MS, AMD, DOC, SONO, TWTR, BBY and GM

David_Buzzard

Not only is Tesla way over priced, but Ford has the electric F-150 and Mustang coming out, GM has a truck, VW is working on updated batteries, etc, etc. All that is going to take a huge bite out of Tesla’s market share.

separatethegame

>Oh, and dont dare look up the crate engine GM is dropping Q3 for retrofitting cars with a 5.7l engine mount. idek what this means tesla > whatever the hell a 5.7l crate engine is

jomama823

Didn’t you hear Elon, the cybertruck is dead. He’ll keep pushing it out year to year until he finally cancels it. Just like his 35k car that, amazing, keeps going up in price. And his self driving is getting surpassed by GM and Ford. But hey, self driving taxis and stuff!

RedneckId1ot

TSLA also has all those pesky software issues, recalls, failing battery packs in cold conditions, failing heat pumps.... This is just in the last 2 months. I've turned wrenches on those piles of shit for *3 years*, I can *keep going* with quality issues I've seen. TSLA is the apple of cars right now, a fad that few can afford while fanboys drool at Elons feet. They got in first, thats about all they have had going for them. Oh, and dont look up the crate engine GM is dropping Q3 for retrofitting cars with a 5.7l engine mount. *it just might make you shit your pants and hop off Elons cock*. Bye now.

rideincircles

GM sold 26 EV's last quarter. One Hummer and 25 Bolts. Every Bolt they made need a battery replacement because they outsourced critical components of the supply chain without properly defining the requirements. Meanwhile Tesla completely redesigned the 4680 battery from the ground up with a tables design for ease of manufacturing, new easy to source materials with a new chemistry, and are going all in on structural battery packs for their 3rd generation of battery hardware. They even fine tuned the old design to make the fastest production car on the planet with the plaid model S. The competition isn't coming anywhere close to catching up to Tesla on EV's. They have a 10 year headstart on battery management, and that's a critical components too many other manufacturers are just getting started on.

Yoga_butts

BB come home to the Giants. We need a coach and GM

Tensoneu

Can you please explain why insiders of AMC unloaded practically majority of their shares last year and including this year? Here's my [source.](http://openinsider.com/search?q=Amc) Let's remove your thesis theory. Without the thesis would you still invest in AMC? I went to the subreddit for AMC and it's just poorly put together (with just numbers 1,2,3,4,...) with sources pointing to DD's from GME and correlating it with AMC. If majority of the sources came from DD's from GME why wouldn't you just invest in GME? That's like me going into Tesla investor subreddit, read the news, and choose to invest in GM ticker because it's cheaper than Tesla.

Fair-Ad6257

Is GM gonna run or nah?

MasterDebator691269

I do this for a living too granted I don’t work in Wall Street per se. I did work at a hedge fund so I copy all their best practices and discard their god complexes. But if you do work in finance as you say, then you should know just as well as I do that most publicly traded companies today are way shittier than Ford. It’s not a question of whether or not a company sucks because they all suck including Tesla spending money like there’s no tomorrow; it’s a question of whether it sucks less and Ford sucks less than Rivian, Lucid, Nikola, Lordstown, and yes Tesla and GM. Even if I was a long-term investor, which I think is retarded in the worst way and about as outdated as 60/40 stock/bonds portfolio, I still would know that the price of a stock has nothing to do with the value of the company in the short term. (So you’re not adding anything new there.) But how is that any different from Tesla primarily going up because of an eccentric CEO and the free marketing his Twitter affords his personal piggy bank, i.e., Tesla shareholders? They’re all being played like a drum. There are many great companies that don’t have the retail following that Tesla does. So I don’t want to hear some pre-internet, late 20th century vindication of intrinsic value. I’m only in it for the money, not making the world a better place just like all your friends in finance I should add, and if retards want to pump up Ford stock just like retards pumped up a money-losing, government-dependent Tesla for years and years, then so be it. I don’t give a shit about the underlying company so naturally I don’t care if it’s dog shit, bird shit or cat shit. I’m playing on the psychology of all the dumb asses in the market today. I know Warren Buffett’s history forwards and backwards but his vision of the world, which you seem to subscribe to, no longer applies to today’s financial markets. All that matters today is: is a stock going up and what are the odds it will keep going up. The odds are at least 51% for Ford. The odds are well below that for its competitors including GM which is bloated and doesn’t have that cachet and Tesla which is so big it has to fail soon. Don’t worry I’ll buy puts soon enough and post my profits from them just like my profits on Ford

Careless-Pin-2852

What are your positions. Do you have spy puts? And why are you just saying the market? Even during the great depression individual companies went up. Hell there where a few whole industries that went up. You say Interest rates are bad. Um ok how is it bad for Apple? No one buys a phone in credit. Tesla they don’t really offer financing on there cars. Tesla might have problems but they won’t have a finance arm fall apart like GM did. So what stock will be destroyed by 0.25% interest rates 6 months from now? Positions please Do you have puts? Do you own shares and are selling leap calls that you think wont hit? Are you holding cash hopping to buy Apple at $150. Those are reasonable things to do if you are expecting a correction. What are you doind My position is the market will bounce up and down. And eek out 5-15% return for the year. If the market drops 3 days in a row i buy SPY calls Currently i have SPY calls i bought near the bottom yesterday. I am expecting a 1-2% bounce Tuesday or Wednesday. [positions ](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1U2EThcWdIEd040lOeht1fbpuA9GKdYAC/view?usp=drivesdk)

Purple_Break6841

How is he going to have any answer on why a stock he bought goes up or down lol…that’s a useless and short term focused strategy….just buy the companies that are a part of your everyday life and forget about it….GM, TGT, WMT, AAPL, V and so on…

paintball6818

Anyone that believes in a Tony Seba like S curve adoption for EVs and sees Ford and GM plans out to 2030 should probably be shorting them.

duffy62

1. GM is "more" American 2. GM donates more to lobbyists

RoPrime12

There are a few problems on first sight. If Tesla produces 12M cars, they would be the biggest car company ever. In that case, the company would be ex-growth. So 50 P/E is unlikely. It would be more among the lines of VW and Toyota. So 10 PE. That would bring the price down significantly. The second problem is your $12,000 gap earnings per EV. Assuming a 20% margin (which would be double of Toyota - the most efficient car maker in the world). That would assume an average car price of $60,000. As VW average price per car is $30,000 and Toyota's is $27,000, that number is unlikely baring huge inflation (which would decrease the margins). You can't sell that many cars. $60,000 is just too a high of a price for most of the world to pay. The third problem is the 50% growth rate. Once you hit a certain number it is incredibly hard to scale up as many factories and production lines. ​ >2aii) Dropping battery costs is basically Wright's Law (Cathie was right about this). That is wrong. Batteries efficiency does not increase as fast as the Wright's Law would suggest. If input costs rise (and they do, cobalt etc are getting more expensive), battery prices will increase. Also sinkinig battery costs will not benefit Tesla, but the consumer - as companies will pass on savings to the consumer, if it allows them to take market share. ​ ​ >2aiii) "Tesla isn't profitable!" we heard for years. This is because they were burning cash for R&D. They've made their manufacturing incredibly efficient, and with 2 new factories we'll see even more benefits from Economies of Scale: They are a car company. They don't benefit from the Economies of Scale in the same vein as other companies do. They are profitable at the moment. But look at the R&D costs of Tesla. VW alone is spending 10x yearly as Tesla. Sure Tesla is ahead, but it is difficult to beat a competitor who can spent 10x your money. ​ ​ > 2bi) Competition. Tesla has always had competition. They had competition in 2013 to their Model S, and the have competition today. It's the ICE car, and Tesla is winning. A couple points to make here: They had no competition until 2019. EVs were to unprofitable and unliked. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ > My next point is that the EV market is expanding.. rapidly. New EV models will not take sales from Tesla. They will take sales from the Toyota Corolla, RAV4, Camry, Honda Civic, Accord, Hyundai cars, Volkwagen cars, etc. BTW: we've already begun to see this :) whispers Tesla IS the chip shortage Look at the numbers from Europe. You will see that they do take sales from Tesla. EV market is expanding, but Volkswagen already sells more EVs in Europe then Tesla (even if Tesla has the best selling models). Tesla didn't have the chip shortage, because they produce much fewer cars. GM produced 4x times the cars in 2021 as Tesla did. Of course they are more affected by the chip shortage. ​ ​ ​ ​ > I believe (assuming a bull market) that there will still be enough frenzy surrounding Tesla to see a 100 P/E in 2027. The conservative side of me calculates these numbers with 50. By the time the S-Curve flattens, the P/E could be 30.. or maybe 60 like Amazon? It's hard to say where Tesla will be in 2030, but I have a feeling they will be selling things we're not talking about today. I don't think so. Tesla has shown nothing that would suggest a dominance in solar (they don't even produce solar panels, they just install them) or energy. Being conservative would put that number at 10, as they would be ex-growth and would trade more in line with other car companies. ​ > > >I do know one thing though; Tesla should never be trading at Toyota, Ford, or GM's P/E ratios. The ICE car is a dead technology, not dropping in price like the EV, and is proving to be far inferior to EVs in every way. It just took Elon investing billions in a company that burned cash for a decade to bring down those battery costs. The world will see soon enough. They will if they sell 12m cars. There is a upper bound for demand. Please go into any other country other than Europe and the US. There is no chance in hell that they have the infrastructure to support a lot of EVs. Hell even in Europe the infrastructure isn't there. Many people don't have houses were they can change their cars, and with how slow goverments operate atm, they wouldn't have built out the charging structure needed. Elon did not bring down battery costs alone. Investments from Panasonic and other companies did as well. To be honest, I don't think that we will even see 50% in EV. ​ $12,000 gaap earnings per EV \* 12,100,000 EVs delivered \* 50 P/E = $7260/share ​ Here is my more realistic counter point. Keep in mind. It would still require Tesla to become the biggest car company in the world. $6,000 gaap eearnings per EV (assuming a $30,000 price point per car. Either you have high prices per car or high sales, both are not possible) \* 12,100,000 \* 10 P/E (they would be ex growth) = $897.40/share. Again. That assumes that they become the biggest car maker in 5 years. (and i doubt it).

i_like_dolphins_

GM has higher profit margins than Tesla. Both are horrible though (8.5% and 7.5%).

mowgli1703

>Look for Tesla’s EV dominance to wane over the next few years as the legacy companies all go EV. This is an issue for the legacy automakers, not Tesla. Ford and GM currently have like 2% of their revenues from EV sales. They need to drastically increase that without impacting their current revenue streams and also ensuring that there is not excess inventory, in order to make any meaningful dent into Tesla's market share. In addition to that, Tesla isn't sitting around doing nothing. Their battery tech, which is already miles ahead of the competition, is getting better every day. They have more data than anyone else which is the single most important thing for AI and FSD. Also, they actually have a proven product with market dominant sales. So if I were to bet, it would be Tesla. The others showed up too late in the game.

blevster

Interesting post, but I think some of your assumptions are very aggressive. Toyota and VW currently hold around ~8% global market share of the automotive market. TSLA is just over 1%. Assuming your 80mm unit number and market growth of 5% per year for the next 5-7 years (itself an aggressive assumption), you get to around 100mm sales per year globally. So your model is assuming TSLA moves from a smaller market share than BMW to holding a market share of ~12% (12mm sales in 100mm market), roughly 50% larger than either Toyota or VW. They would be accomplishing this with their current offering, which does not include a true compact offering, a true low cost offering (Model 3 is still over $30K), or a true utility/truck offering (cyber truck and Model X’s are not going to be used as utility vehicles on European construction sites or Chinese farms). On your margin assumptions, your model is not accounting for the increase in SG&A that will come with building out operations globally. Not every market works like the US and in order to be viable around the world, TSLA will need to build out service operations, parts distribution, meaningful vehicle inventory, storage, and a sales force. I get that their model is currently different, but again, TSLA is still sub scale compared to the likes of VW and Toyota. You will also likely see costs of inputs and component parts (such as lithium) begin to rise as more EVs are produced across the market, thereby partially offsetting the reduction in battery costs, but battery costs probably will continue to come down. Having driven several EVs, TSLA is not the easy winner in the space from a quality perspective, even among the luxury segment. As Ford, GM, Toyota, and VW begin to sell EVs, TSLA will have true direct competition. While the billions of cash burn was a significant investment for TSLA, all of these companies could easily underwrite such an investment, especially since TSLA has proven the viability of the market. If TSLA has true luxury EV competitors among Porsche, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, and Lexus, and true middle market competitors in Toyota and VW, I’d be incredibly impressed if they could continue to put up 20% annual revenue growth. So, if they were able to do what you say, TSLA would absolutely garner an extreme multiple (50 -100x PE), but that is an incredibly unlikely outcome. And if it does not occur, their multiple and margins will likely contract considerably. I don’t short stocks and don’t own TSLA or any other automaker. I was a sell-side analyst for a number of years.

ThatKarmaWhore

I think the PE issues people have is mostly due to a false comparison with legacy auto. Legacy auto built a nuts and bolts ICE vehicle that has an engine and a lot in common with a washing machine. Roughly the same level of software sophistication as well. Teslas (and other EVs from up and coming EV names) have no engine, and rely on very sophisticated batteries to power the other components. They are also increasingly sophisticated with their software. It might be more accurate to think of “cars” as giant iPads that you can drive. In this sense they command a PE more in line with other tech stocks. It looks like the market largely agrees, since if you look at GM and F since they started going “all in on EVs” (at least in the media lol) their PE has absolutely soared. F has never traded this high in its history, and they just had a pretty objectively horrible year.

whereisizzy

I totally agree that lithium is the white gold with more countries having targets of going %100 electric vehicles in near future, lots of batteries, charging stations, accessories and soon paying for charging (not going to charge for free for ever ) these are all good long-term investment ideas EV car manufacturers like of course Tesla ,ford, GM , Rivian , Lucid, Nio etc.. all going to need batteries for their EV plus cell phones and pretty much every Gadget and Gizmos uses rechargeable battery These stocks and companies are in the business off lithium and batteries leading and just starting big and small And don't worry if they are Canadian!!! Most of USA bought and owned by Chinese investors states owned or private , Canadians should be your least worry they are Americans best Bud up north just without guns and free healthcare 😲 Lithium stocks worth monitoring and DD LTHM ALB PLL LAC SQM ENR QS

yangminded

Long TSLA was expected. You being short F and GM is interesting though.

gravityCaffeStocks

there's plenty of room in the automotive market for every EV manufacturer to sell every EV they make this decade. There's 80M in automobile sales a year. I'm only assuming Tesla will sell 12M for this valuation. Rivian, Lucid, F and GM can sell 40M together, and there's still room for more sales by all of them. EVs will be in premium demand all decade.

legobis

More EV announcements than EVs in 2022 from GM.

growawaybro

But I heard the President recently say that GM is the leader in EV’s, what is your rebuttal to this statement?

trail34

Ford, followed closely behind by GM. I bought both at the covid dip. Up over 100%. I sold off 10% of my Ford holding yesterday because I think it’s getting a high from a string of positive news and is bound to fall on the next piece of bad news. I used to be way up on PYPL and SQ too but now that they have plummeted I learned to take a little profit when I can. Biggest losers are Zillow and BABA.

Tyr312

Nothing has changed. The only reason the stock increased is due to Tesla and the EV chase. You don’t believe me? Look at the charts for other car companies. WV / GM / etc. Ford has a ton of financial obligations - those costs aren’t going anywhere.

szaero

Tell that to the people that owned General Motors before 2010. My friend averaged down through their entire bankruptcy and corporate restructure. He thought that there's no way that GM doesn't come back. It's over 100 years old! Joke was on him when they just renamed the ticker to MTLQQ and issued new stock as GM. The ticker was delisted and traded OTC for a while before becoming totally worthless.

MarketOracle

I would invest in F or GM instead of these smaller boutique companies.

Severe_Set5371

The entire market seems to be in a trading channel right now, easy to tell when to start buying. I’ve been playing ITM calls on GM, doing pretty good with them.

lenraleigh

I strongly disagree on Thacker Pass being priced in. If/when cleared, most likely in early March, there is almost definitely going to be a significant spike in the price. Many investors are waiting for this to clear as it paves the way for LAC to become a major producer. It probably won't be long after approval until a partner is announced in TP and many speculate it will be Tesla. If it isn't Tesla, it will likely be Ford, GM or another major manufacturer. If/when approved, production would be in 2 years. Not 10+. The water is not a problem and there is actually more water available than they need. They will also recycle it. This is well documented. The Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) is expected to issue their water permit in the near future. This is on their website. ;) You're absolutely correct about Caucharí. Indeed, this "DD" lacks a lot. It also omits LAC's recent purchase of Millennial Lithium and their continuing investments in Arena Minerals, located near Caucharí. If OP likes LAC based on his above DD he will love them when he learns more about them.

paulJ1963

Ford stock is doing so well because they are making vehicles people want both ICE and EV. Bronco, Maverick, Mustang Mach E, F150 Lightning, Transit EV all sold out for the foreseeable future. They are currently the smartest company in the auto industry. They traded high interest bonds for zero percent bonds last year. Fords bond debt is all associated with the financing division and is profitable. They invested Rivian, Argo Ai and Solid Power. The only piece they are missing is the supercharger network. At least in the short term Ford is in better position for growth and stock price appreciation than GM or VW.

drew-gen-x

Goodyear is definitely the industry leader in trucking. I guess in Ag they let $TWI sell tires under the Goodyear Farm brand. Michelin & Goodyear are obviously the Coke/Pepsi of normal car tires. Goodyear's advantage is all the Goodyear tire repair shops. If you own a business you are buying & using Goodyear repair shops and not messing around with the discount tire or Walmarts. Blue Collar guys are very brand loyal similar to the AMD vs Intel fanboys. However Blue collar skilled workers tend to buy and work for the brands their dad and grandfathers used, so the talent goes to the legacy brands like Cat, Deere, Ford/GM, Dewalt, Goodyear etc. It's almost the exact opposite of the tech world. My 2 cents.

josh198989

It is back by American - regulatory and policy making by the USA back it. It also will receive USA subsidies: The Government Wants Lithium Looking past the trendy word crafting, we can see the Biden administration is behind lithium much like the Trump administration was. Looking at the December 13th, 2021 statement we see the following highlights: 1. "The Department of Energy (DOE) and Department of Transportation (DOT) will establish a Joint Office of Energy and Transportation focused on deploying EV infrastructure." 2. $5 billion in funding for a national charging network. 3. $2.5 billion in additional charger funding. 4. Target of 50% EV penetration by 2030. 5. DOT will publish standards for EV chargers. 6. "Increase domestic manufacturing of EV batteries and components and advance environmentally responsible domestic sourcing and recycling of critical minerals." 7. "$17 billion in loan authority in the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program (ATVM) to support the domestic battery supply chain. LPO will leverage full statutory authority to finance key strategic areas of development and fill deficits in the domestic supply chain capacity. This will include the ATVM program making loans to manufacturers of advanced technology vehicle battery cells and packs for re-equipping, expanding or establishing such manufacturing facilities in the United States." 8. "Leverage $13 million in FEMP's Assisting Federal Facilities with Energy Conservation Technologies grants to unlock an estimated $260 million or more in project investments, including battery storage projects." 9. "Funded two dozen teams to expand sourcing of lithium from geothermal brines and approved a permit for the Nevada-based Thacker Pass lithium mine." 10. "Automakers are also signing contracts that leverage domestic supply, including Ford sourcing lithium from recycled content through Redwood Materials, GM sourcing lithium from geothermal brines in the Salton Sea with Controlled Thermal Resources, and Tesla sourcing lithium from a Piedmont project in North Carolina." 11. "$7 billion in funding to accelerate innovations and facilities across the battery supply chain from battery materials refining, processing and manufacturing to battery manufacturing, including components, to battery recycling and reuse. These investments will support the development of a North American battery supply chain, help expand manufacturing and recycling facilities in the United States and substantially advance the battery recycling through research, development and demonstration projects in collaboration with retailers as well as state and local governments."

lacrimosaofdana

All talk and no walk. Just because he says it doesn’t mean it will happen. Look at all the trouble GM, Lucid, and Rivian are having. None of them are able to scale up to those kinds of numbers.

Stonk_noob

Also I wish you luck with Lucid. I don’t know what the future holds. But I am going with Ford, GM, and Toyota as the winners along with Tesla and NIO(maybe) . Average people will end up buying EV cars from brands they know.

Duckboy_Flaccidpus

For starters, she needs to lower that expense ratio. She's not a hedge fund, bring that puppy down around 25 basis poiints and maybe we'll talk. Secondly, she can talk a big game and almost conviced me the other day of her team's thesis but lady, you can't shit talk ford and GM, they out here in the trenches leading the pack - get with the program and be more realistic with your assertions as well as a tough look in the mirror.

dfaen

You appreciate the quote regarding 600k vehicles does not in any way mean they’re making 600k electric cars in 2 years, right? It clearly states that within two years they’ll have the “capacity” to produce 600k cars. So in year three they’ll have the capacity to produce 600k cars. This is an important distinction. Next, let’s consider margins. Ford is not selling anywhere near the same volume of Lightning trucks for the same margins as it’s ICE F-150 range unless it sells them at significantly higher prices. It remains to be seen just how many trucks they can sell at $80k+ a year. Tesla’s position in China with the Model Y over Ford and the Mach E is pretty hilarious. That you genuinely think the Mach E is going to compete globally against Tesla with the Model Y being produced in Austin, Shanghai, and Berlin is pretty amazing - good luck with that. The prevailing reason for buying a Tesla is because it’s the best electric platform for customers. No one else offers the software side that Tesla has from the perspective of cars being a computer on wheels not the charging network reliability. Further, you underestimate the strong disdain many people have for interacting with dealers. Guess Ford needs to get in line after GM. Mary has clearly stated GM is going to be the leader.

Severe_Set5371

They are still trading significantly over their book value per share which is 4.56. I think it still has room to go down. GM has a book value of 37.30 and isn’t even trading one time over that and they have a very high ROE. The market has not awarded them with a 10x yet, so you need to think why PTON should. Just giving you a different perspective so you don’t fall victim to confirmation bias. Hope it works out for you.

dfaen

They have the production capacity? What capacity and when? Next thing you’ll tell us is that GM has capacity too.

Wfdeacon88

Ok made my money on puts, Roku, GM long it is.

deadjawa

The funny thing about this whole rotation is this: the companies that are going up or sideways are the companies most reliant on debt (value companies) ie, GM, F. The companies that are going down are complete unreliant on debt. Ie, SQ, ZM. This market is very disconnected to the way the economy works right now.

StickToSports

Can a sensible investment strategy include a 3x levered ETF? Hi guys, I’ve been putting some thought into this strategy and would like to hear your opinions on it. My current portfolio is about 25% $SPY, $25% $XLU and the rest is a few different individual stocks (GM, DLR, TSM, USB, etc). Nothing too crazy. However, i am starting to hold a bit more cash as I am a little less sure of markets. (Wouldn’t call myself a bear, but not exactly as bullish as I was say a year ago). When the market does become a bull market, whether that’s some point his year or some point 4 years from now, is there something inherently reckless about change my cash and SPY holdings to the 3x S&P tracker? My thought process: wait for a bear market, which I would describe as a 20%-25% decrease. At that point, the market is at somewhat of a discount, so make my cash and SPY 3x levered. I wouldn’t expect to pull out for another 5 years at least. If the market becomes bullish again, I would start converting the 3x levered back to SPY again to taper off risk after 2 years of a bullish market. I’m young and am fortunate to have a decent income and savings so it’s fairly safe I would run into liquidity issues where I’d have to prematurely pull out of the market. My thinking is that I’m buy at a discount (small or large idk) and then over the course of 5-10 years isn’t almost certain I’d be better off 3x levered in the market over that span? I ask because I feel 3x levered ETFs are often viewed as kinda crazy and I wonder if this implementation of them is more calculated. Please let me know what you think and if you disagree or can poke holes in it. Thanks!

Drtsauce

I bought all 3 of the Detroit boys at the end of January last year. F: +129% STLA: +42% GM: +22% But I’m a true Ape, portfolio is (10%)

LastPotato1214

Not sure about Sft, but the used car industry has issues. Used car prices peaked in November, Increased venues for it, GM just launched a site for themas well. People are driving less, and holding onto their cars longer, mix of EV and WFH changes.

peter-doubt

2008 was high stress. But high opportunity, too. Once the Auto companies went bankrupt (Ford didn't, but they were heavily in debt) you could discount the poor ones I bought ford and rode it from 2 to 12. Just a few hundred, but a nest egg for my IRA. A month later, got GE.. rode from 7 to 25. Never close your eyes because ... Fear. . But don't grab for the falling knife (GM was that, then)

Desmater

A lot of people say Ford is overvalued because debt and they sell ICE. But 90% of that debt is the financial arm that makes money off auto loans. GM even had one too. But spun it off during the GFC. It is Ally financial now. Not to mention their Rivian stake. I think it will be a $40 stock by 2024. Only way they don't get that is if they can't keep their production timeline. If they can make 200,000 F150 Lightnings like they promise. Easily get there with their ICE sales.

Crypto556

Because new automakers (Rivian, Lordstown, lucid, etc) aren’t really that much of a threat. Ford pulled out of its development partnership with Rivian but still has made billions on paper from its equity holdings. Ford has the ability to produce cars on such a massive scale. They are going to be pumping out hundreds of millions of F150 lightnings per year. And they’re pretty lean compared to other OEMs. They focus heavily on trucks and only have Ford/Lincoln comped to the several that GM/Stelantis have. Long term people know EV prices will decrease. As development and validation becomes cheaper. Prices will fall but so will costs.

jhwaldo

Walmart was smart at CES to announce a partnership with a company that can definitely deliver the vehicles, but it doesn’t mean the WMT/GM relationship is exclusive. Would not be a surprise to see Canoo on the roster once they can prove that they are production-ready.

KIitComander

That aint No GM, Sell it... LOL

niftyifty

I have family working for GM and their opinion is also that the charging network is their biggest hurdle. They have been working on EV projects for years but kept pushing them to the back burner until recently.

TrioxinTwoFortyFive

Whooooooosh! You must not be up on the news where the President congratulated GM's CEO for leading the way on EVs. Yup, not Tesla. GM! BTW, the sold 26 EVs because they recalled their crappy EV and stopped selling them until they fixed the battery. It is not an indication of their market share during a regular quarter.

bigstonkguy

Exactly RIVN HAD A LARGER VALUATION THAN GM AND FORD COMBINED

Applepushtoken1

If I was in charge of buying vehicles at Amazon, I wouldn't buy all my vehicles from one company. Especially a bunch of startup companies. You diversify so that a flaw, defect or recall doesn't impact your entire fleet. This is why you might see a police department that replaces a portion of their vehicles with a different model each year. They might buy Ford one year, GM the next, and Dodge the next year. They might buy two different models from the same company, maybe a sedan and an SUV. While usage is a factor in what they buy, having different models means a recall means they can keep a minimum number of cars on the roads.

thejumpingsheep2

Quick note: Fords fPE is betwen 7 and 11 based on estimates for 2022. GM's PE is not expected to change much.

teslapp

Ford, GM suck high time with execution and quality. Ford, GM trucks are going to disappoint high time with battery life time. DYS.

_subgenius

I work manufacturing parts for Ford, Mercedes, GM and we're usually just keeping up or behind and right now we're stocked full, kicked back all day relatively speaking, parts aren't going out with any kind of speed

deadjawa

The market right now is severely mispricing growth assets vs value assets because it’s confused about the fed messaging and where inflation is going. So ford and GM are going up relative to other stocks. Meanwhile, the fundamentals behind these companies are incredibly bearish. Used car inventories are soaring just as production (squeezed by the chip shortage) is coming back online. EV demand is also increasing, with the F-150 lightning increasing its production capacity. This is super bearish …where do people think this demand is coming from? It’s coming from buyers of traditional F-150’s which make up most of ford’s profits! Yet the stock is going up because the algo traders are positioning for a 2001-style growth crash which won’t materialize. So, the economy is going to slow down, inflation is going to slow down, fed won’t be able to raise rates as aggressively as they have positioned for, used car prices will crash, pricing power for new ICEV’s will crash, and the profitability of cyclicals like GM and F will nosedive. You don’t want to be in these companies when this happens. It could be a complete investor wipeout.

Erenio69

I am bearish on Ford and believe they are overvalued. By ER it will go back to 21$. Do not compare Ford with TSLA. TSLA produced 1m EV vehicles in 2021 when Ford is targeting 650,000 by 2024. You need to compare Ford with legacy automakers Toyota , GM, Daimler, VW. Ford PE 34 compared to Toyota 11 Daimler 5 , GM 8 , VW 6.

Own-Flan738

I have been bullish on Ford for a while. I know the regular car market doesn’t peak anyones interest as much as EVs. There is always a Ford in my driveway. I have been a customer for years, mostly Explorers but I have owned Navigators, Expeditions and Edges. This past Wednesday I picked up my first ever EV, the Mach E4X. It’s only 2 days but I love it!!! I am thinking of ordering the F150 lighting but I really don’t have a need for a pickup truck. I may wait until they produce a Navigator EV. I am sure it’s not far off. The biggest difference in my opinion from the EVs of past (Bolt/S10 etc) is the technology. The Mach E may not be on par with a Tesla yet but it’s damn close. I got right on the highway and turned on Blue Cruise and it worked fine. The programming options are cool. I am yet to play with all the features yet. What I will say about Ford/Chevy/GM is that no matter where you drive across the country you will find a dealership. The new EV companies will not have any real estate/footprint for years. With the major car companies footprints they can build a charging network to compete with Tesla. In my opinion the charging network is Teslas biggest strength. I also read Ford is developing a charging cable that is liquid cooled and it can charge a car to 100 percent in the same time it would be to fill your tank with gas.

Erenio69

Ford is overvalued. By ER it will go back to 21$. Do not compare Ford with TSLA. TSLA produced 1m EV vehicles in 2021 when Ford is targeting 650,000 by 2024. You need to compare Ford with legacy automakers Toyota , GM, Daimler, VW. Ford PE 34 compared to Toyota 11 Daimler 5 , GM 8 , VW 6. Buy puts.

etphonetrome

GM

Erenio69

Comparing Tesla and Ford lmao? You need to compare Ford with Toyota , GM, Daimler, VW. Not fucking Tesla. Ford PE 34 compared to Toyota 11 Daimler 5 , GM 8 , VW 6.

subredditsummarybot

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anthonyjh21

Not a chance in hell I'd touch either Ford GM. People are greatly understanding how expensive it'll be to transition while simultaneously overestimating their tangible/intangible assets. Looking back on this decade I think this [2007 cover page](https://i0.wp.com/nokiamob.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Nokia-Forbes.png?fit=1000%2C1299&ssl=1) questioning if anyone can catch Nokia will be a stark reminder that technology changes faster than we think. I'm not convinced legacy ICE manufacturers will successfully transition (unless the government bails them out).

razch31

What is the % of EV for Ford/GM out of their sales? I can tell you...nothing...but for sure their ICE sales can only go down. If you buy GM now for sure you will be 6-12m ahead.... of the rug pull. Tesla just opened two new factories. What do you think will be the inpact of that?

guachi01

Tetra Technologies (TTI). Oil and gas service. I had 45k in my 401K and about $2k in my IRA. Bought it at $25 in 2007 so about 80 shares. Went to $35 and then sank. I sold half as it dropped for around $10 but I still kept some. I rarely looked at my IRA as I was just putting money into my 401k at that time. By 2012 I finally had more in my IRA and that's when I bought the other stocks I mentioned (AAPL & GM). A bad choice that turned into a good choice (at least the shares I sold did). The other half I still own I decided to keep there when I saw it at $0.30 in 2020. It's gone up 10x since then from $12 to $120. It didn't seem worth it to sell the remaining shares for $12.

dacreativeguy

GM sold 26 EVs in Q4. Not 2600. Not 26000. Twenty six.

Jumpy-Imagination-81

Yeah, I own F, GM, BMWYY, VWAGY, TSLA, RIVN, NIO, XPEV LCID to cover the major players in the electric vehicle industry,

RockChalkWalk

I bought at 13... and have no plans to sell at 25. Cathie Woods called the 'runup' on F and GM ridiculous. GM P/E =~8 F P/E = ~35 TSLA P/E =~335 LOL.

sf_warriors

It is running on sentiment than technicals, their wild card is F150 lighting and the stock will continue to run and after F150 debuts this year. F and GM also benefiting from low inventory as they not offering any discounts and selling at MSRP or more thus retaining the margins. Both F and gm will continue to do better in 2022 as the inventories are tighter and evs launches from respectively. F -$45 and GM -$90 by year end

Responsible-Salad-82

I already knew the basics about them. My dad has been a shareholder for a decade or longer. I just noticed that it seems to be on the up and up, and it feels like there might still be plenty of momentum with the stock. Out of the American automakers, they have been my favorite cars to personally drive. That and the GM trucks.

Goddess_Peorth

While I do believe that if you bought Ford before it went up that was a great play, I would like to remind newcomers to auto-industry investing to look into how much bonds a company has issued before deciding what you think the market cap is, because realistically you need to combine the capitalizations from stock market and bond market to value the company. Also... Ford didn't really "move first." GM had an electric S-10 pickup in the 80s. They had the EV-1 in the 90s. The only metric by which Ford is "first" is that they're first to advertise to young stock traders who've never paid attention to automotive "boomer stocks." (Note from Gen X: Boomers built the system and pulled up the ladder. That doesn't imply they're financially stupid) The Chevy Bolt has been around for a long time. There is an electric Hummer that is a real thing. There is a Silvarado pickup with pretty good specs. With a fast charger the Cadillac Lyriq gains 76 miles of range in 10 minutes. F is a great company, and the stock has done amazingly well recently. But remember to do your research, and look at the full chart, and look at how steep the recent tend line is, compared to their long-term trend. And remember that if they're ahead of GM or VW, that's measured in months. They have no "moat," they have no special advantage over their competitors.👼

Flakey_Felatio

Out of all the autos (in NA) they are the worst with electrical systems. If I don't trust them to hook a battery to my engine, why would I want a wholly electric vehicle from them? I wouldn't trust a GM EV as far as I can throw it.

SomethingRandom98

They’re the only other company activity testing, obtaining licenses, and close to launching a full self driving taxi service. Really one of the bigger disappointments (for some investors) is GM hasn’t spun cruise out entirely. Instead, the company is trying to utilize that expertise for ultra/super cruise for production vehicles

Nezaret

I did a masters degree project on Ford over a year ago. Fell in love with their plan yet I didn't buy. Seems like GM in the same spot now that Ford was then. I'm not buying Ford this high. Not that brave...