HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
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Anyone here trade on iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)?
Do currency-hedged ETFs go down in value if your native currency further weakens rather than strengthens?
Do currency-hedged ETFs go down in value if the foreign currency further weakens rather than strengthens?
Right now spreads b/w HYG and IG are low because HY is outperforming but soon it will all blow up.
Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
Is QYLD and HYG a good buy and hold for 401k?
Hey, 15yr investor here and I found and I found an insanely underrated EFT (HYG) it barely every moves and the dividend yield is so good.
High Yield Credit Spread Compression Trade: Long $HYGH or via $HYG/$IEI Pair Trade!
High Yield Credit Spread Compression Trade: Long $HYGH or via $HYG/$IEI Pair Trade!
Academy Securities does *tongue-in-cheek* - "A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A 0DTE OPTION"
Academy Securities loses their minds... << A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A 0DTE OPTION >>
*A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A 0DTE OPTION" ...Academy Securities losing their minds?
What does your market dashboard and trading plan look like?
2022-12-01 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-11-21 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
TLT, HYG, JNK, & LQD: Bond Market Sell Off & Fed Reaction/ Discussion
Nearly guaranteed money play
Why is Investment Grade lower vs High Yield YTD in this environmenet?
Wall Street Specials : "Fed Guy" and "One of Salomon Brother" discuss about Collapsing Liquidity in Global Financial Markets.
Diary from 2008 bear market (prior market crash/credit crisis)
Question for the $293M worth position of $HYG Expiring on May 20
Options Screeners by 5Greeks Explained: CSP, Volatility and Fireball Screeners
Backtesting a $100k UPRO portfolio with long $HYG puts as a hedge (replacing TMF in HFEA, the Hedgefundie portfolio)
The 2022 Real Estate Collapse is going to be Worse than the 2008 One, and Nobody Knows About It
$UUP (calls) / $HYG (puts) / $EUO (calls) - Macro play on the current state of world markets, rising interest rates, and "pending" world recession
Hey, Morons. Go Look at the Put Volume on HYG. Free Money if You're Patient.
What do you do with money that you have been saving and will need within the next 1-2 years
What do the specifics of your retirement (early or late) look like in terms of margin + dividend income?
Robinhood seems a little more shady lately.
There is a risk I'm overlooking and I'm asking for your help to find it. I think I found free money and don't want to be the next 1r0nyman.
Free money doesn't exist, but this looks like a free-ish lotto ticket.
Delta Variant isn’t the event that will crash the market. Fed tapering and a rise in yields will.
3.8 Million Puts. How all of Wall Street is using the Junk Bond Market as a Hedge against the Coming Market Crash.
Degens are playing with VIX and 3x Inverse ETFs again...
UPDATE on Market Crashing Soon Positions and an extra simple explanation for the Apes in the back
Goodyear, Carrabbas, Outback and PF Changs Discounts Added to the Already Wide Variety of Household Brand Names on the Your Social Offers Savings Destination Site
Guaranteed millionaire with 20k investment
Guaranteed millionaire with a 20k investment
VIX options shifting to bullish and Banks really bearish all the sudden
Housing a Big Bubbly Pile of Garbage that will soon be on Fire, a follow up to my Market Crash Post
A follow up to my market crash post specifically about what's wrong with the housing market
Tin Foil Astronaut Helmet Time... barcoding spotted in HYG / GME / AMC BLACK SWAN Launching?
Guy! HYG did not go down, Any ideas if BR and Shitadel $4 billion put?
HYG and fed reverse repos, notice the pattern, fed is selling off a list of bond etfs, repo market spiked the same timeframe this bond fund started rising after a selloff
$HYG high open int at 86 expiring June 18th the tutes know something
Corporate Bond HYG Correlation analysis compared to GME/AMC/BB. Opposing the findings of recent posts around HYG, GME/AMC has positive correlation while BB has negative correlation when compared to the fabled HYG corporate bond ETF.
HUGE big boy bets on puts for HYG junk bonds for this Friday.
Citadel and Blackrock have heavy bets on the market tanking by Friday
Heavy bets against HYG 6/18, anticipating a market crash
Puts on HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
Puts on HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
Puts on HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
Mentions
A few regional banks disclosed bad loans, canaries in a coal mine perhaps Check out HYG 65 P 11/21 volume
So good someone bought 600k of HYG 65p
Someone put 600k in HYG 65P 11/21
If you can’t see the image, someone bought 600k of HYG 65P 11/21
Someone bought 600k worth of HYG 65p for November opex. For those unfamiliar with HYG and what that ticker means: this is a fucking regarded bet, and would require a giant collapse of the private credit/loan industry to actually go ITM. We're fucked.
Guys buy some HYG put to protect yourself in case shit goes south. You know the saying when it comes it pours.
Who's buying so many $80 NOV Puts on HYG? We gonna see Chyna taking treasuries yield back to 5%? !Remindme 10 days
Going to post this here one more time. Bols be careful buying this dip for the next ~5% to the downside. Risks are building quietly beneath the surface of the market euphoria. Between AI circle jerk and meme stock frenzies, theres cracks forming in the plumbing of the markets. St louis fed financial stres index is creeping higher, overnight reverse repo market is down to just 5 billion, the TGA is still climbing, Credit spreads are widening and my real time indicator using the spread of HYG+JNK/TLT is plummeting in a similar fashion leading into the April selloff. All of this is indicative of liquidity drying up, and possible plumbing issues with the foundation of the financial system. VIX has been slowly creeping higher along with equities likely a result of hedging flows. There is a real good chance the rug is about to be pulled on retail.
The problem with credit spreads right now is that so much of the lending is from PE now and those numbers are pretty hidden so the true spreads are likely higher than those numbers indicate. Its been a thing I have seen a lot of macro people complaining about because there just isnt as much transparency as previous cycles. Dont look at HYG in a vaccum. Look at HYG vs QQQ. Showing a massive divergence right now that keeps expanding. HYG is down 3 weeks in a row and at June levels. QQQ is at ATH and 10% above june levels.
Risks are building quietly between the surface of the market euphoria. Between AI circle jerk and meme stock frenzies, theres cracks forming in the plumbing of the markets. St louis fed financial stres index is creeping higher, overnight reverse repo market is down to just 5 billion, the TGA is still climbing, Credit spreads are widening and my real time indicator using the spread of HYG+JNK/TLT is plummeting in a similar fashion leading into the April selloff. All of this is indicative of liquidity drying up, and possible plumbing issues with the foundation of the financial system. VIX has been slowly creeping higher along with equities likely a result of hedging flows. There is a real good chance the rug is about to be pulled on retail.
gold has so much momentum right now : [https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=GLD&country=us](https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=GLD&country=us) corp debt is starting to look weaker : [https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=HYG&country=us](https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=HYG&country=us) emerging market is starting to look better : [https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=EEM&country=us](https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=EEM&country=us) eem is the trade for October and November
gold has so much momentum right now : [https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=GLD&country=us](https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=GLD&country=us) corp debt is starting to look weaker : [https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=HYG&country=us](https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=HYG&country=us) emerging market is starting to look better : [https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=EEM&country=us](https://www.gptplots.com/?ticker=EEM&country=us)
Out of stimulus? Only gonna run out of bidders if an actual earnings contraction starts. The dollar isn't the place to be with the government's runaway debt and the current meta being to "run it hot" to hopefully inflate the debt away and stave off recession somehow. If they're successful with that, then stocks are going to remain in large demand. Short at your own risk. I did see some correlated things I watch go pretty bearish to end the day: $HYG and % of stocks above VWAP were definitely hinting at a move lower to end the day was likely, but, maybe the dealer positioning hinted otherwise. Dealers were short gamma below 6750 and long it above. We kind of settled at the point to cause maximum pissyness from those who were playing long single options plays 🤣 As market makers are prone to doing... Wanna not be pissed at that outcome? Learn better trading strategies. And maybe pay for a data service that shows you what $SPX options dealers have in their books and learn how they have to hedge those positions and how that may move markets.
any idea what is happening to high yield bonds? are they de-risking or credit stress or what? looking at HYG and JNK
I got 50 HYG $80 put contracts that expire next week. If shit goes south then at least I have some assurance. But the way I see it shit always goes up so fuck me right?
Not yet it's not. Some of the wildest gains happen when the bullish fervor gets this way. But, it can knife right back down just as fast. There are a handful of things one can follow to get a feel for when we're really, truly nearing a top, and even then, some of those items showed up early this year, and we went down so far, so fast that dip-buyers rushed back in and haven't quit since. It became a reset like the COVID crash was. If the consumer and jobs numbers can hold on awhile longer, this market could potentially go another year. Just keep an eye on longer term charts of HYG, VIX and high yield corporate option-adjusted spreads. Eventually, all 3 will agree we're getting dangerously close to a top. We do have volatility creeping higher while the market keeps grinding to new highs at the moment, but not much else is screaming danger is soon. Could be a different story by the end of the year... or maybe end of next year. I'll know it when I see it, but for now, buy the dip remains king. Can play for the occasional spike in vol around the major OpExes, but other than that? I'd rather stay long until I have more of those correlated items flashing warning signs to me.
It will be a credit-related problem. There have been two auto industry credit disasters in the last 2 weeks. Those are canaries in the coal mine. High yield bonds tend to sell off before stocks. Watch HYG ETF like a hawk.
Its the rate differential between corporate bonds and us treasuries of equal maturity. Higher spreads = higher perceived risk on corporate bonds. Its on tradeview or you watch here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY Ive also created a real time credit spread monitor on tradeview using this formula : HYG+JNK/TLT
https://preview.redd.it/7n58hre8oqpf1.jpeg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6965e127eace67b63c52caed91b9dca69faabb2 My ass with 30k in HYG calls not even knowing how either result will affect me.
Yeah, this is an interesting juncture. We've already had a decent slide, Fridays can often be turnarounds. There's a number of things at interesting support levels, like Bitcoin and HYG in particular. If those levels hold, we could certainly be in for a strong bounce to the upside. If they fail, it could get real ugly. Looking at what dealers have on their books, 6300 is a very interesting level to watch for. If we have a decent move lower, I can see even as low as 6285-6290 as being a spot where it finds support at if we do get a good down move. 6280 and below the dealers are long puts, meaning customers have sold all of those short. Tomorrow's expiration has a decent bit of negative gamma above where we closed today. Based on exposures alone, 6400 may be real difficult for bulls to push past. There isn't a lot of call speculation where price is at now. There's a handful of customer longs above 6400, but below 6400, it's very put dominated, both long and short depending on the strike you're looking at. There's a window open to have us go all the way down to 6200 by a week from tomorrow.
30 day yield of 6.47? Goodness HYG
If you're talking about something like HYG/LQD, it's actually UP for the year which would not support your thesis here, just like everything else so far. I don't know why you're so dismissive when I just want to learn.
HYG+JNK/TLT is a great indicator for risk appetite and making swing trades on the index.
I have an HYG put hedge that always fucks up my portfolio value at close with its garbage spread. Might just liquidate that shit to make it stop
I have HYG puts just in case. Volatility is usually pretty cheap on high yield bonds.
You’re not wrong but it won’t matter in 2-5 years. Nothing wrong with lump sum into a total market index fund, even at ATH, as long as the horizon is long. I’d personally have split this more like VTI VXUS SSO HYG at 50/30/10/10.
its one indicator- if small caps are failing that means theres larger issues looming. also follow HYG as that collapses before IWM
**Credit market’s waving the red flag — HYG/IEF broke the trend, risk appetite’s fading fast. Time to stay alert.**
It's probably related to credit. It looks like risk appetite is cooling. Check HYG/IEF. It broke the upward move
But $79 HYG put for Friday and then PRAY for a bad 10 and 30 year treasury auction. Either 0 or 5-10x
No, some are great. But details matter. Not all bonds are the same. Buying a bond fund like TLT or HYG is not the same thing as owning a government 2028 bond or investment grade corp target date fund.
They should put treasuries in the high yield junk bond etfs JNK and HYG
Junk bonds and High Yield Corporate bonds just hit all time highs last week. Market is going back to all time highs Just overlay JNK/HYG with SPY and QQQ.
I'm kind of conflicted. I would probably do better by a market pump tomorrow overall. But I will lose money on some straddles expiring EOW that are green in the put side. So I either want a mongo giant throbbing veiny shrek cock tomorrow that pushes those straddles to call side, or GSK and HYG only to take a shit and everything else to moon like no tomorrow. Then I can by puts.
Says in HYG. High yield corporate bond etf.
I know. It’s for HYG though, it never goes out of this range. So an order placed for this morning.
honestly? SOXS if you wanna gamble equities, start selling chunks of gains as soon as they come in gambling options? my picks would be 2026 dated ***puts*** on XLRE (real estate), XLF (finance sector / the bank basket), XLE (energy) if you want a big spicy one HYG, I'm holding a ton of puts on them. they're the high yield corporate bond ETF. tracks high risk corporate bonds which are typically high risk as hell and I think it's pretty implosion worthy.
Solid breakdown. Honestly, the deeper I’ve gotten into HY credit, the more I’ve realized how much nuance gets lost in these fund summaries. I’ve been following a newsletter that actually dissects the capital structure and issuer-level risk. It’s made a big difference in how I look at stuff like HYG.
HYG - Yes but junk bonds soar high when bond market shakes. JEPI - Yes but I also don’t believe it will perform worse in a bear market.
$HYG tends to be highly correlated to the equity market. It has a beta of 0.90, so that means if the market goes down 1% HYG will generally trade down ~0.9% barring idiosyncratic differences. This is not a great choice if you're pessimistic on the S&P500 unless you have another reason to believe high yield bonds will outperform. $JEPI is not a dividend equity fund, it's an equity *premium* income fund, which will mean the majority of the distributions are not from dividends, but from the fund writing covered call options on their equity portfolio (eg selling potential upside for income). Will decline less than the S&P500 in a bear market/outperform in a flat market but covered call strategies tend to perform poorly over the long-term given options skew.
Think beyond just SP500. $HYG Bonds - Diversified Junk Bonds will have the highest yield. Over 1k bonds represented rebalancing frequently. $JEPI - Good ol dividend equities, if their yield falls below downside losses, I’d be surprised. ESG Equal Weight International Index - Global Companies with solid moral leanings are less likely to be financially unstable. Equal weight will keep you most diversified. It’s not what you do in a bull market, but a bear market that makes you a good investor.
All good, duder. I'm holding HYG leap puts still. Upcoming data will give us the directions the market will be heading.
Understood, I appreciate the direction. I had originally thought the inverse of what you were saying. I thought consumer loans would hit equity (firms specializing in consumer loans) first, but you're saying this will still cascade down from broader credit markets? A quick Goog search led me to: HYBB USHY and HYLB, Another individual mentioned HYG. I assume these would give me the exposure to the credit market through options?
Check out the P/C ratio on IWM and HYG. June looks interesting.
This chart’s basically a coiled spring. Credit spreads don’t sit this low forever, and when they snap, it gets ugly fast. HYG puts might be early, but not wrong. Been reading a credit-focused newsletter that’s been flagging this exact setup. If anyone’s deep into this side of the trade and wants the name, I can share.
So if the economy deteriorates, the corporate bond yield goes up, bond price goes down, and you make money from your HYG puts?
$HYG puts open interests are crazy wtf.
HYG tanks after high yield credit spreads rapidly widen. Triggered by recessionary data shock, restrictive policy surprise, or abrupt rise in rates that raises default expectations. The spread spike forces redemptions and deleverage if, causing large volume liquidations of the bonds and quickly collapsing the ETF Basically, triggered in a few ways but it happens when liquidity dries up and defaults look likely
I'm looking at the liquidity and spreads..the bid ask on these is wild. What would it take to tank HYG? A credit crisis?
Put spreads on HYG are enough to hedge you. Keep it simple.
It’s an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks a basket of high-yield (junk) corporate bonds. HYG tends to move with perceived credit risK. If CDS spreads widen (more fear of default), HYG usually falls And vise versa. Everyone think we in a credit bubble so I am taking a small bet on retail consensus nothing crazy.
Bear call spread. Sell closer to the money call, buy the further out of the money. Yes, defined risk, limited reward. Hasn't gone my way yet because HYG has rallied somewhat.
I've got May bear credit spread in HYG, but hasn't moved my way since I entered. Was thinking of adding to that position, but maybe I'll get more aggressive and buy some puts.
$HYG puts. Source:Trust me bro
I don’t care what CNBC says. I don’t care about earnings season optimism. I don’t care if Powell whispers dovish nonsense into the wind. The market is structurally vulnerable. And Trump just lit the fuse. The Setup: The S&P 500 is levitating on zero-volume melt-up. Market breadth is collapsing—95% of gains are being driven by a handful of mega-cap names. Underneath? Rot. Small caps are flatlining, cyclicals are bleeding, and the bond market is screaming “danger.” Meanwhile: Geopolitical instability is growing in multiple hotspots. Bond yields are twitching like they smell blood. Consumer credit delinquencies are accelerating. And the Fed is boxed in—unable to cut without admitting failure. But the trigger is Trump. Not his politics. His instability. Why Monday: Trump’s legal exposure is converging with political escalation. Multiple sources point to a high-probability event hitting between Sunday night and Monday morning. This isn’t just a news story. It’s a signal. The algos will see “instability at the top of U.S. political leadership” and sell risk instantly. Not because they care about Trump—but because they’re trained to react to volatility catalysts. Markets don’t wait. They front-run fear. You won’t even have time to log in. Positioning (My Book, Not Advice): $SPY 4/15 495P — Loaded I don’t want the 500s. I want the break. If 495 goes, 480 is next. This is the breach point. $VIX 16C, 17C, 18C — Laddered Strike Spread This is mispriced. VIX is at complacency levels. A 3-5 point spike is on the table within minutes of market open. $QQQ 4/15 400P This is not just a hedge. It’s a structural bet. If tech unwinds, this is the drainpipe. Flows have been dangerously one-sided. $TLT May Calls Flight to safety. Simple. You don’t fight Treasury demand during panic. I’m positioned for a snapback rally in bonds. $HYG Puts High-yield credit is the truth serum. If HYG gaps down, it confirms contagion is spreading. Warning Signs to Watch Sunday Night: ES futures gapping down below 5150 Yen strength Gold pushing $2,400 Crypto pump and fade Sharp reversal in Apple, NVIDIA, or MSFT premarket If those align, it’s happening. And it won’t be orderly. Conclusion: I’m not here to argue politics. I’m not here to scream “crash” for karma. I’ve been tracking this system for 12 years. The market is a living organism, and right now it’s twitching. If you're still dreaming about all-time highs, wake up. Trump is the spark. The system is the powder keg. Monday. Watch.
I don’t care what CNBC says. I don’t care about earnings season optimism. I don’t care if Powell whispers dovish nonsense into the wind. The market is structurally vulnerable. And Trump just lit the fuse. The Setup: The S&P 500 is levitating on zero-volume melt-up. Market breadth is collapsing—95% of gains are being driven by a handful of mega-cap names. Underneath? Rot. Small caps are flatlining, cyclicals are bleeding, and the bond market is screaming “danger.” Meanwhile: Geopolitical instability is growing in multiple hotspots. Bond yields are twitching like they smell blood. Consumer credit delinquencies are accelerating. And the Fed is boxed in—unable to cut without admitting failure. But the trigger is Trump. Not his politics. His instability. Why Monday: Trump’s legal exposure is converging with political escalation. Multiple sources point to a high-probability event—either indictment fallout, asset seizures, or a federal gag order violation—hitting between Sunday night and Monday morning. This isn’t just a news story. It’s a signal. The algos will see “instability at the top of U.S. political leadership” and sell risk instantly. Not because they care about Trump—but because they’re trained to react to volatility catalysts. Markets don’t wait. They front-run fear. You won’t even have time to log in. Positioning (My Book, Not Advice): 1. $SPY 4/15 495P — Loaded I don’t want the 500s. I want the break. If 495 goes, 480 is next. This is the breach point. 2. $VIX 16C, 17C, 18C — Laddered Strike Spread This is mispriced. VIX is at complacency levels. A 3-5 point spike is on the table within minutes of market open. 3. $QQQ 4/15 400P This is not just a hedge. It’s a structural bet. If tech unwinds, this is the drainpipe. Flows have been dangerously one-sided. 4. $TLT May Calls Flight to safety. Simple. You don’t fight Treasury demand during panic. I’m positioned for a snapback rally in bonds. 5. $HYG Puts High-yield credit is the truth serum. If HYG gaps down, it confirms contagion is spreading. Warning Signs to Watch Sunday Night ES futures gapping down below 5150 Yen strength Gold pushing $2,400 Crypto pump and fade Sharp reversal in Apple, NVIDIA, or MSFT premarket If those align, it’s happening. And it won’t be orderly. Conclusion: I’m not here to argue politics. I’m not here to scream “crash” for karma. I’ve been tracking this system for 12 years. The market is a living organism, and right now it’s twitching. If you're still dreaming about all-time highs, wake up. Trump is the spark. The system is the powder keg. Monday. Watch.
I don’t care what CNBC says. I don’t care about earnings season optimism. I don’t care if Powell whispers dovish nonsense into the wind. The market is structurally vulnerable. And Trump just lit the fuse. The Setup The S&P 500 is levitating on zero-volume melt-up. Market breadth is collapsing—95% of gains are being driven by a handful of mega-cap names. Underneath? Rot. Small caps are flatlining, cyclicals are bleeding, and the bond market is screaming “danger.” Meanwhile: Geopolitical instability is growing in multiple hotspots. Bond yields are twitching like they smell blood. Consumer credit delinquencies are accelerating. And the Fed is boxed in—unable to cut without admitting failure. But the trigger is Trump. Not his politics. His instability. Why Monday Trump’s legal exposure is converging with political escalation. Multiple sources point to a high-probability event—either indictment fallout, asset seizures, or a federal gag order violation—hitting between Sunday night and Monday morning. This isn’t just a news story. It’s a signal. The algos will see “instability at the top of U.S. political leadership” and sell risk instantly. Not because they care about Trump—but because they’re trained to react to volatility catalysts. Markets don’t wait. They front-run fear. You won’t even have time to log in. Positioning (My Book, Not Advice) 1. $SPY 4/15 495P — Loaded I don’t want the 500s. I want the break. If 495 goes, 480 is next. This is the breach point. 2. $VIX 16C, 17C, 18C — Laddered Strike Spread This is mispriced. VIX is at complacency levels. A 3-5 point spike is on the table within minutes of market open. 3. $QQQ 4/15 400P This is not just a hedge. It’s a structural bet. If tech unwinds, this is the drainpipe. Flows have been dangerously one-sided. 4. $TLT May Calls Flight to safety. Simple. You don’t fight Treasury demand during panic. I’m positioned for a snapback rally in bonds. 5. $HYG Puts High-yield credit is the truth serum. If HYG gaps down, it confirms contagion is spreading. Warning Signs to Watch Sunday Night ES futures gapping down below 5150 Yen strength Gold pushing $2,400 Crypto pump and fade Sharp reversal in Apple, NVIDIA, or MSFT premarket If those align, it’s happening. And it won’t be orderly. Conclusion: I’m not here to argue politics. I’m not here to scream “crash” for karma. I’ve been tracking this system for 12 years. The market is a living organism, and right now it’s twitching. If you're still dreaming about all-time highs, wake up. Trump is the spark. The system is the powder keg. Monday. Watch.
Oh you naive regard. The US is in a full blown trade war, the treasury bonds are tanking, and it’s very likely we’re in a recession. The market is still in denial (and may go up short term) but at some point, people are going to wake up to the damage that’s done. Large wagers going down against the HYG (junk bonds), largest mortgage renewal denial since 2008, pretty clear what’s coming.
That post was silly. There was no 'pump' on Friday. It was chopping sideways all day with a +1%\-1% then price laddered up gradually from afternoon to close. Absolutely low volume compared to the last week. VIX, HYG/SPY, MOVE, 10 Year yield all calmed down but stayed elevated. Gold and silver jumped on economy/stagflation fears. It was literally just shorts covering and wait and see repositioning. Buyers and sellers were both tired. No one makes big moves on Friday when a headline drop moves the market 10% in 15 minutes. Probably see a bear rally Monday or bear trap.
There is money to be made in intermediate term straddles, too. Check HYG and LQD. Also, of course, commodities.
why hasn't HYG tanked yet?
Puts on XLF, WFC, USB, CFG, HYG, and QQQ. Mostly June expirations. Shorter dated QQQ calls to hedge, and lots of cash to average down on pumps.
Gold still going up a lot, HYG still trending down. I think SPY will fizzle towards red today
It really depends on your risk tolerance. This market is wild. I have been doing 0DTE, 1-3DTEs and a few weeks out for SPX. For bonds, one way to play this is to keep around 40 percent in short-term Treasuries like SHY for safety, and put the other 60 percent into higher-yielding options like HYG and EMB to boost returns. It’s a barbell setup with steady income on one side and more aggressive growth potential on the other.
do both 🙏 and have a tiny bit set aside for more puts on HYG / QQQ / SPY short term
The simple and short answer, global credit crunch. I find the spike in yields (no, it's not only China dumping US bonds) worldwide telling, the blown up credit spreads or the swift decline in HYG, LQD show the same thing. It's the time markets start to show cracks in unexpected places or where no-one is looking yet. While retail is still worrying about the next buyable dip, trading desks and other leveraged parties are scrambling to force close their least damaging trades. Sell bonds, "keep stocks, they might turn around soon" (and not taking a loss on these positions). These yield spikes appear often before big sell-offs for good reasons. We've seen this play out in similar ways before big market failures in 2000, 2008 and 2020, things are about to get a lot uglier the coming weeks.
So a while back my stock app told me I should buy HYG straddles for a few months out, they expire 5/16 at 80. I'm regarded so I barely even know what the fuck it is, but I'm up quite a bit on them. So it told me again a few days ago to buy 7/18 77's. Up on those too. Same with some LQD bullshit I don't know what the fuck it is. I'm a poster boy for a WSB regard who just willy nilly buys shit and sometimes it works out, usually it doesn't.
Who is dumb enough to be bidding up HYG today lol
Oh, I'm mostly cash but I'm up on my GSK straddles, my HYG straddles, my TSLS calls, my LQD straddles. I'm mostly waiting for the crash to buy back in, but I did buy some 2 month HYG straddles. I'm up like 6K today. But should be way more.
A lot of action on HYG puts, too.
I made around 4K on HYG puts And Vix calls. Not terrible. Hard when you see people posting such crazy numbers but I’m happy with it.
TLT up huge and HYG down huge. Credit spreads are screaming caution
Well, the last time we had a quarter where the strikes were down at all from the previous quarter was Q4 2023. Before that? Q4 2022. Both quarters would end up being local bottoms in October. Of course, if we're just starting a real bear market, then this could just be the first quarter in a string of several that continue bracketing us lower. 2022 was 4 quarters in a row of JHEQX stair-stepping lower. Strong bullish move today so far. Interestingly, for how strong the up move is, VIX is holding strong at 22. We have contracted some since the open, but for how big of a move this is, I would have expected more vol getting pulled out. That's one thing that makes me think a little on the bearish side. But, a lot of other things are pointing to bullish for now. Divergence in VIX from its highs near 30 a few weeks ago, we have a lower high. $HYG and Bitcoin have seemingly found support here, and we got a double-bottom in SPX. A lot of things have the appearance of sellers having run out of steam, buy the dip mode may be back. Short term, I think we could have enough to keep going up. For how long is the harder question. A week or two? Most of the month? Not real sure. I do overall feel that this is the start of a longer bear market. We're possibly starting a solid bear market rally that will have more legs than what we've seen in recent weeks to the upside, but I'm not at all confident we get back to all time highs this year. But it's very tempting to be bulled up for the rest of the week, maybe next two weeks, or even all the way to the major April monthly expiries, we'll see. Up, for now, though--just adding fuel to my conviction that the official tariff news on the 2nd will be the market potentially rallying hard because while the market doesn't \*like\* tariffs, we've already priced them in, if not over-priced in that possibility. Adding some certainty back into the equation with solid details and deadlines on when things take effect can actually help bullish flows for the time being along with having a massive amount of bearish trades rolling off today. Markets and businesses don't like uncertainty. Even if it doesn't like tariffs, adding certainty back to the tariffs being enacted--knowing exactly what they will look like and when they take effect can actually be very bullish for a little while. So, while some people may assume the news is going to smack us back down, structurally it looks like the market almost won't have a choice but to go higher from here for at least a little while. Bears will need to tread carefully for a bit.
HYG options are typically pretty cheap but the underlying moves (down) quick with the anticipation of a recession. (Zoom out to 2020 and 2022) Thing is that tariffs could cause a recession forcing Fed to cut rates raising bond prices so I have no clue how to play it.
TLT up 1.5% and HYG down 0.3%. Probably nothing ;)
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** SPY (implied) **Direction:** Likely Down (55% chance of red day) **Prognosis:** Short or Buy Puts (depending on risk tolerance). Consider HYG activity. **Methodology:** Contrarian sentiment analysis of a small Reddit poll (green majority suggests red day) combined with observed high put activity on HYG (junk bonds). **Disclaimer:** This is highly speculative and based on a limited sample size and somewhat unconventional analysis. Your mileage may vary, and you might lose money. Don't bet the farm on this.
Personally I'd get a job. You're 36 and 505K isnt enough to live on in retirement. I'd get a job, keep building a retirement portfolio and put the money in S&P500. If you want a higher bond rate, you could consider a diversified high risk bond etf such as HYG etf. You'd get more than with treasury builds and credit spreads are still pretty low right now.
❗️I ran an experiment—here’s the result❗️ https://preview.redd.it/t9pqsikzswoe1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5b43927ffe6ce73915c12a215f7a371468fa154 I asked everyone to guess whether Monday would be green or red. The idea was simple: if the majority predicts green, there’s a high probability of red, and vice versa. This was based on a contrarian approach—the market often moves against the crowd. Results from the poll: • Green: 37 votes • Red: 32 votes • 50/50: 5 votes What does this mean? At first glance, the split seems relatively even, but green had a slight majority. If we stick to the original theory, this would imply a higher probability of a red day on Monday. What’s the additional insight? A user pointed out an interesting angle—huge put activity on HYG (junk bonds) this week, which often precedes major market moves. If that’s the case, the market may already be pricing in a potential downside due to upcoming tariffs on April 2. If these tariffs turn out worse than expected, the downward pressure could be stronger than anticipated. Final probability estimate for Monday: • 55% chance of red (contrarian view + put activity on HYG) • 40% chance of green (market may still squeeze shorts before a deeper drop) • 5% chop (sideways movement) If the market does indeed go red, this could be another point in favor of using sentiment analysis as an early indicator. If it goes green, Murphy’s Law wins again. What do you think? Do you trust this method, or is it all just gambling disguised as analysis?
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** SPY (implied) **Direction:** Down (55% probability) **Prognosis:** Contrarian Reddit poll suggests Monday will be red, supported by high put activity on HYG. However, there's a 40% chance of a green day due to potential short squeezes. **Methodology:** A Reddit poll predicting market direction, combined with analysis of HYG put option activity. **Disclaimer:** This is highly speculative and should not be considered investment advice. It's based on a contrarian approach and interpretation of HYG activity. Gambling disguised as analysis? You decide.
There's a lot that goes in to the Algos, and there's also competing algos. You'll usually see movement in the options market before a big move in the market. This week, there was huge movement on HYG, the junk bond Vanguard fund, something like 35M in puts, Usually, that precedes a giant move in the market. I'd say the market is predicting that Tarriffs go through on April 2, and they're worse then people think. I do have open positions on HYG for May 16, 2025, P 79. I may open more, depending on what I see.
HYG chart is now really bearish and Junk Yields are going up while long term yields are going down. For those who dont know what that means: People are selling high yield junk debt and buying low yielding safe debt. IE, look out below
$SPY $QQQ I'm loading some $JEPI $JEPQ $HYG on the sell off. $MAGS Mag7 stocks will get a short squeeze soon. Tariffs are a way to get rates down, benefit everyone.
Junk debt isn't falling yet like HYG so not the REAL crash
So some trade talk, mainly to mock bols. I'm cautious so I bought some straddles not long ago. SONY 4/4 @25 Strad - P side up 185%, C side down 28% HYG 5/16 @80 Strad - (didn't expect much, this seems to never move) P up 70% C down 30% JNPR .. it's not moving for shit, so sad there. GSK 5/16 @38 Strad - C side up 160% P down 36% DBX put side... doing decent hoping for more of a shit from them.
Liquidity will be abysmal in the futures market today, expect massive volatility. The speed at which this market is deteriorating makes me think this is more than a correction. Also, HYG is now starting to sell off. Credit spreads are widening, finally. How far they go, and how quickly is key.
Futures sure are pointing to that. Pre market tomorrow will be very telling. I haven't been holding anything overnight, save for some OTM puts on HYG, expiring in April. But if we break the 200sma, look out below.
I can’t post images but look at HYG options chain $80 strike.
Somebody spent 30k on on June HYG calls recently. They’re betting on rate cuts.
June 20 HYG $80 strike calls?
I started options trading like a month ago and my first option was a bust I bought 2 contracts for SLB at $45 eat it was like 2 weeks out but the break even i was only like 1.50 from it and it bottomed out on me I screwed up lol. Spent way to much, now I'm learning to look for cheaper ones that have a longer date than the first one. I have option in three things SLB HYG and AT&T. Hyg and AT are 3/21 calls and SLB is Friday. What makes me sick is my first buy was up between nividia or SLB. I choose SLB if I would a choose nividia I would a made like 3200 bucks on 80 bucks that's why options rule but are risky I like though how you can only lose a certain amount it's like betting lol
I stopped trying to use 'fundamentals' and news for short term trades some time ago. I get wrecked almost every time I use such an assumption instead of just trading what I see in front of me. These days, I trade SPX options based on dealer GEX, what the VIX is doing and what $HYG is doing (high yield corporate bonds). You'd be surprised, even on an intraday level, what those 3 things can tell you. The news can make a temporary panicked move, but if it starts to challenge a large wad of dealer GEX/hedging, expect that to be where things may turn around. Large GEX can act as both a magnet and a point of support or resistance. When a move gets pretty extreme, expect a hard reversal at some point, possibly the next day, especially if the trends in VIX and HYG support that. Nowadays, I just trade what I see, when the market makes a big move, I'll do my best to trade what I see in front of me and worry about what caused the move later. Instead of using the news as predictor of where the market is going, I use the market's movement to tell me some pertinent news came out. The market will digest the news and normalize after awhile, the news becoming somewhat forgotten. I'll take a cursory glance at what the news was that caused it, but it is not something to dwell on. What does the market tell you it wants to do? That's more important than what you think about the implications of that particular bit of news.
I'm retired and currently have a 40/60 (stocks/fixed income) portfolio. The fixed income side is giving me just under a 5% YTM from a bond ladder that goes out about 11 years. I replenish the rungs with bonds (including treasuries) that are about 11 years out. So at this point getting close to 5% return on the new rungs isn't much of a problem with a investment grade (including BBB/Baa). I also have some HYG. The long term total return on HYG is about 4.7%, that assumes reinvestment of dividends. That leaves the stocks to pull the overall return above 5%. So far it's been doing nicely. I primarily have SPY, QQQ, FTEC DIA, ITOT, XLC, XLB, and like everyone else, some NVDA. The interest payments are sufficient for me, at least for now, so I'm counting on those to get me through and corrections or crashes in stocks. I rebalance every 3-6 months. This lets me take some earnings off the table an put them in fixed income. That's the minimal risk portfolio that I came up with to get a 5+ % return.
Watch HYG. If money starts pulling out of high yield bonds, the party is over.
Can check out JNK and HYG