Reddit Posts
$HTZ DD: The $3 wall is structural, not sentimental
BNPL Degen Returns: Why $KLAR will double from here
Iran Headlines, 19 Fed Speakers and Quarter-End Flows Put SPY Under Pressure
JP Morgan gives IREN a double upgrade
$DELL — Am I crazy or is a $20 call actually a steal going into earnings?
NVDA Confirms the Memory Bottleneck, PCE Stays Mechanically Hot & Positioning Turns Bullish Into Jackson Hole
Just handed 100k to my trading agent after running evals
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - August 12, 2026 📈 📉
Hookers (304) and blow. I checked my clock and it said it’s that time
Capital One ($COF) says it closed Trump Organization's accounts after anti-money laundering probe
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - July 28, 2026 📈 📉
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - July 27, 2026 📈 📉
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - July 24, 2026 📈 📉
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - July 15, 2026 📈 📉
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - July 14, 2026 📈 📉
If hyperscalers like MSFT, ORCL, META, AMZN, etc are down 30-40% semi conductor stocks can’t continue to go up! Says JPM’s Chairman of an investment Strategy Michael Cembalest.
How to pump WEN renevue for free and get some free food in the process
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - June 25, 2026 📈 📉
SpaceX signs computing power deal with open-source AI startup Reflection worth up to $6.3 billion
Top stocks hitting 52-Week Highs/Lows - June 17, 2026 📈 📉
Four different Fiserv ($FISV) insiders just bought over $1M in stock on the exact same day.
I pulled this tape from Friday. It reads like a Bay Street directory.
JP Morgan Upgrades from Sell>Neutral and Raises PT from $145>$475 1 Week From the SpaceX IPO
$500 to $5mil Project - NKE $50C Jul17 + ABT $100C Jul17 - Full DDs
The Story of Foxtrot: A Messy Private Restructuring Highlighting Successor Liability Questions
WSB Weekly Outlook | The Week Ahead (6/1/26 - 6/5/26)
AI trade is carrying the entire market on its back again.
JPM boss lady Hajdini counter sues banker Rana for defamation and ruining her life. Also her role is at JPM is "VP of leveraged finance".
Has US Justice system become bribe operated? JPM Research shows, Trump DoJ terminated without prosecution, around three times as many cases of fraud than prior administrations. There was also about 90% increase in terminated cases for white-collar and organized crime.
DD: SK Telecom ($SKM) Gives A Free Stake in $4T Anthropic. Short-Dated Calls
I have a list of energy/industrials companies but each one has their flaws.
Fuck Al - I have a list of energy/industrials companies but each one has their flaws. Would value your perspective.
Wanting to get sexually harassed at JPM is back on the menu!
Calls/Puts on JPM. Bubble About to Burst
POV You’re a new hire at JPM and your manager wants to discuss the terms of your promotion
JPM dude sneaking out of the boss's office after being forced to see cannons
JPM Exec Allegedly Turned a Broker Into Her Personal Sex Slave
Jamie Dimon warns of ‘some kind of bond crisis’ ahead as global debt risks build
NRED at $37M EV vs a Potential 3.3B lb Copper System - Why the Market Might Be Early Here
Updated - J.P Morgan's Top Stock Picks for 2026 - +7.40% YTD
Every $0.50/lb Copper Move Adds $1.85B to a CMM-Scale System. Here Are the Levels.
JPM beat, Citi beat, and the reactions were different. Is earnings season mostly about expectations now?
Are we here yet? Bear huddle 🌈🐻
JPMorgan cites complex economic risk, downward revision for 2026 guidance
My perspective on oil prices from now until the end of 2026. Information compiled from multiple reputable news sources
The Strait of Hormuz Premium: Why the Tape is Trading on Vibes, Not Volumes (CPI 3.3% Breakdown)
Dealing with some regret amidst "missed opportunity" to have invested more a month ago and in the past few weeks. Any constructive thoughts?
Do you think the guys at JPM are worried right now?
Looking to expand my stock picks...are AMZN, PEP and MCD good picks?
Markets are glowing green today… but is this the calm before something bigger?
Xtreme One Entertainment Secures Temporary Restraining Order Against Lender Williamsburg Venture Holdings, Halting Alleged Fraudulent Transfer and Sale of $XONI Stock
Big bank earnings are coming up and prediction markets look pretty bullish on the group
Market Screener: BAC, JPM, and MRK looking cheap? 📈
Where can I track BofA / JPM / GS index targets (S&P 500, Gold) in one place?
Where can I track BofA / JPM / GS index targets (S&P 500, Gold) in one place?
Dow Jones & NASDAQ Composite close in -10% correction territory
Dow Jones & NASDAQ Composite close in -10% correction territory
$GRAB: The "Super App" Finally Breaks Out of its Cage
An Exodus of Money Endangers Wall Street’s Private-Credit Craze
Morgan Stanley restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge
CRCL 150 6/18/26 Calls I forgot I had
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH) Update: Asset-Level Inflection, Debt Arbitrage, and Valuation Upside
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH) Update: Asset-Level Inflection, Debt Arbitrage, and Valuation Upside
The Payrolls Bomb, the Oil Shock, and the Wall Street Shouting Match That Followed
HIMS Leadership Just Pulled Off the Greatest Corporate Bear Trap in Modern Healthcare History 🚀🐻
Honest question: what's your actual process for forming a rates view before a Fed meeting?
What to Invest in from the following - portfolio breakdown I want to diversify from Tech
Looking for a calculator/ website to tell me the approximate closing price of proprietary mutual funds ahead of the close
JPM Earnings: Big Profit, Big Warning
JPMorgan says Trump’s $5 billion suit 'Falsely’ includes Dimon
ATM Gone + Institutional Build = Structural Shift?
When the Largest Asset Manager Increases in a Microcap, It Is About Exposure
BlackRоck +92 Percent While Price Is Compressed Is Classic Pre-Expansion Behavior
From Geode to BlackRock: The Institutional Wall Is Building
Mentions
I got 300 more JPM today cuz imma bitch
When Fed want higher interest rate & collapse economy even remain silent at 10 yr 5.33%, all media appearances AI-vibe collapse next. At extreme high leverage debt, options gambling is routine nowadays. Q3-earnings time start with banks just days away, $C $BAC $JPM $GS $MS $XLF
Low PE? Not utilities. Maybe finance companies like JPM
For breakfast at the $ JPM $WEN dumpster begging behind gate D13... We have Gourmet bacon and Ribeye Corned Beef Sandwiches with a Tuscan Olive Oil, Champagne Rosé Reduction AU Jus with Shaved Harvati & Dill. *webull step back... @Citadel knows you can't afford this. How did you even buy a ticket? Spirit-Frontier Airlines? Figures. Where are you going? Destin? Figures. Well, enjoy your fight. Imma fly in any other direction cause you are definitely a Nimrod. Translation: biblical strike from lightning because your wouldn't take God's page and Noah was getting tired of waking up Raphael.
Same with Jamie Doom-on. Bro gets on camera and warns about yields continuing to go up. Yet, JPM’s trading desk is loading up on Treasuries.
**The discussion around an impending economic downturn or a stock market "everything bubble" centers on specific macroeconomic and valuation metrics.** While traditional data like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to show steady growth (around 2%), critics argue that current asset pricing has drifted heavily from economic realities. \[1, 2, 3\] Below are the primary technical indicators used by analysts to argue that the U.S. economy faces hidden recessionary friction, alongside specific valuation tools pointing toward a historic market bubble. **1. Indicators of Hidden Recessionary Friction** While the U.S. has not officially entered a technical recession (traditionally marked by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), specific leading indicators track underlying economic weakness. \[4\] **The Sahm Rule Volatility:** The [Sahm Rule Recession Indicator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME) triggers when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.50 percentage points above its 12-month low. While it spiked earlier, it sits around **-0.07% to 0.00% as of late 2026**. However, the newer **Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm-style (SOS) Indicator**—which tracks *insured* unemployment claims—continues to signal caution regarding labor market deceleration. \[4, 5, 6, 7\] **Corporate Credit Spreads & Debt Roll-Over:** Private corporate debt has reached record levels. Because interest rates remain elevated, companies can no longer easily roll over expiring debt into cheap new loans. Rising default rates in private credit signal that the restrictive monetary environment is squeezing businesses from the bottom up.\[2, 8\] **Vanishing Equity Risk Premium:** The extra return investors expect for holding stocks over safe government bonds has completely flattened or turned negative. This structural imbalance indicates that investors are taking on extreme equity risks without receiving the historic "safety premium" over risk-free U.S. Treasuries. \[1\] **2. Indicators of Market Overvaluation & "Bubble" Territory** When analyzing whether the stock market is experiencing a speculative bubble (specifically driven by the Artificial Intelligence and technology arms race), macro-valuation metrics have reached levels seen only once or twice in modern history. \[2, 9\] **The Shiller CAPE Ratio (Price-to-Earnings):** Developed by Robert Shiller, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio measures today's stock prices against 10 years of inflation-adjusted corporate earnings. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio sits at roughly **41x**. This is more than double its historical average of 17x. In 145 years of data, it has only been higher once: at the absolute peak of the **1999 dot-com bubble** (44.2x). **The Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP):** Warren Buffett’s preferred macro-valuation model divides the entire value of the U.S. stock market by annualized GDP. It currently reads at an astonishing **237% to 244%**. Historically, a reading between 70% and 90% represents fair value. The current level is about 2.6 standard deviations above its long-term trend line, indicating extreme historical overvaluation. **Skyrocketing Margin Debt:** Speculative bubbles are funded by leverage. Total FINRA margin debt (money borrowed by investors against their portfolios to buy more stock) surged to **$1.1 trillion**, making up a highly volatile slice of total S&P 500 market value. Highly leveraged markets are highly sensitive to sudden downward shocks. **Capex Concentration Risk:** A core fundamental metric of a bubble is capital expenditure concentration. Historically, massive "hyperscaler" tech companies spent 4 to 5 cents of every dollar on infrastructure capital expenditures. Today, that capital expenditure has accelerated to **40 cents per dollar**. If the monetized Return on Investment (ROI) of the AI infrastructure expansion fails to match Wall Street's lofty expectations, it threatens to trigger a sharp contraction across the tech sector. \[1, 2, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18\] **Core Technical Comparison** **Valuation Indicator** **Historical Norm / Fair Value** **Late 2026 Reading** **Historical Precedent** **Shiller CAPE Ratio** \~17x **\~41x** Exceeded only by the Dot-Com Peak (44.2x) **Buffett Indicator** 70% – 90% **237% – 244%** All-time historic record high **FINRA Margin Debt** Modest relative to cap **$1.1 Trillion** Record high funding speculative leverage Are you trying to evaluate these signals to **rebalance a retirement portfolio**, or are you looking to use these indicators for short-term **options/shorting strategies**? Let me know so we can model the right risk framework. \[1\] [https://thehub.ca](https://thehub.ca/2026/05/29/the-everything-bubble-a-twice-in-145-year-valuation-peak-with-no-place-to-hide/) \[2\] [https://www.reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1wzdr0a/why_do_people_keep_spouting_its_a_bubble_when/) \[3\] [https://www.morningstar.com](https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/blog/leading-recession-indicators) \[4\] [https://www.td.com](https://www.td.com/ca/en/investing/direct-investing/articles/recession-indicators) \[5\] [https://fred.stlouisfed.org](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME) \[6\] [https://www.richmondfed.org](https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/sos_recession_indicator) \[7\] [https://tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/real-time-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-fed-data.html) \[8\] [https://www.theglobeandmail.com](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/motley/3809532/history-says-these-3-warning-signs-precede-major-stock-market-crashes-all-3-are-flashing-red-right-now/) \[9\] [https://www.theglobeandmail.com](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/JPM/pressreleases/4868726/the-market-just-hit-a-risky-milestone-history-says-investors-should-make-this-1-move/) \[10\] [https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com](https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php) \[11\] [https://fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2026/04/19/what-is-the-buffett-indicator-stock-market-crash-overvalued/) \[12\] [https://www.gurufocus.com](https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php) \[13\] [https://www.chamberlinfinancial.com](https://www.chamberlinfinancial.com/blog/the-shiller-cape-ratio-what-it-means-and-why-its-flashing-red-in-2026) \[14\] [https://finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/this-stock-market-indicator-just-flashed-a-warning-not-seen-since-the-dot-com-bubble-165540336.html) \[15\] [https://ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/look-key-signs-stock-market-162133841.html) \[16\] [https://ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-just-flashed-rare-141000531.html) \[17\] [https://threestreamsfinancial.com](https://threestreamsfinancial.com/shiller-cape-ratio-elevated/) \[18\] [https://www.theglobeandmail.com](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/motley/4899831/will-the-stock-market-crash-history-gives-a-95-reason-to-stay-calm/)
Since its IPO 5 years ago, it is basically flat (down like 5-10%). In that same period, JPM is up 100% but but but "it's a fintech"
I understand savings but why are checking accounts so bad at Chase? Free unlimited ATM reimbursement, free (standard) checks, local branches everywhere, etc.? Shy of an alternative like Fidelity CMA, this seems pretty competitive if you park some investments with JPM.
Lol 😂 $JPM is pinned at 0.03% going into a TUESDAY IN THIS CLOWN ECONOMY. LOL
Cathie Wood is so cooked. Calls on $QCOM. Major puts on $ARM. Hedge with $JPM $GLD AND $GOOGL
I bought 200 shares of JPM and it’s sideways.. sadge
today the day to buy JPMorgan (JPM) Oct 06, 2026 1.65 dividend
Honestly, the stock markets stellar performance has confused a lot of experts too. I mean 30 year bond yields are over 5.6%... normally this would cause a mass rotation out of stocksv causing a massive selloff. We are looking at rising inflation/stagflation that's, endless tariff threats, a horrible jobs market, sky high valuations similar to pre dot com levels and the potential AI bubble could burst at any time. The fact that the market has continued to perform the way it has has completely baffled a lot of experts. Some of us who are more conspiracy minded believe that Trump has activated the Plunge Protection Team aka presidents working group on financial markets... Which brings the Fed, the Treasury, and futures trading commission together, and theoretically, allows them to work with large investment groups like Schwab and JPM to buy mass amounts of leveraged index futures to pump the market.
Did this JPM analyst travel over there with cash and cigars?
What’re the 🆕 JPM☃️ Collar🎗️Trade levels❓ Pls & thx
Oh come on MU even shitty JPM. Is doing better than you
Can they pump this week. These guys are acting like JPM is doing a bear Stern
hmm i wanna play JPM earnings but they got high expectations
The last post of wall st engine is real? That will be bullish for memory stocks this week? **JPMorgan sees memory supply remaining tight through 2028, with customer order discussions already extending into 2031. Its estimates point to: • HBM bit demand growth: +63% • Non-HBM server DRAM: +37% • CY27 HBM blended ASP: +54% YoY JPM also believes Micron’s >35% revenue coverage under long-term supply agreements through 2030 could prove conservative, noting Asian memory peers have LTAs covering 50%+ of capacity.
IT’S JPM FOR THE LAST TIME!!! :screech:
Does anyone know the updated JPM☃️ Collar🎗️Trade❓
JPM report. We´ll see what heppens over the weekend.
i told you retards last night JPM was gonna be green dick
Best advice I can give you is to be VERY aware of the content and from whom you consume content. Many Bots and People alike reflect narrow, short term views that primarily support their specific objective. Follow people who can consume data from both sides, conduct additional research, form logical opinions... There is a HUGE difference between Trading (extremely short term) and Investing (long term). When you Invest, you have to conduct unbiased research into all aspects of the Companies you uncover. Once found, you have to have conviction in your analysis. When you do, buy and hold them forever. Some that I previously came across 15+ years ago (not recommending in 2026) and began INVESTING in were JPM, Apple, Nextel (now TMUS). VTI, VT or VOO should be 1 fund in any long term investor portfolios (age would dictate weighting bias). These had their ups/downs however their returns have met/exceeded S&P500 return. 3 different sectors but the companies all have solid businesses. We need a new Warren Buffett for this current environment where Private Equity and Tech lead Imaginary (at super inflated levels) valuations and an SEC that let's such companies enter people's IRAs ,401ks... People need to also be similarly aware of WH Administration related changes as they tend to drive short term Market moves (more for Trading). I don't post much at all but saw your opening and thought I would send something.
If nothing else this is a fuckload better than I ever got from the financial "advisors" at JPM. This doesn't stop me buying high selling low, but still have an updoot.
For "The House" to work correctly, there has to be a critical mass of intelligent and capable people running things. Even during GFC, Bush was a bona fide retard but enough people under him were considered incredibly smart, hard-working and competent. Hank Paulson was a highly respected banker that personally believed in small government. But push comes to shove, none of that shit mattered, they had to rescue the system. Despite conspiracy theories, he lost a lot of sleep, worked himself to the bone and genuinely tried to be fair and do the right thing. He desperately tried to get Bear Stearns sold for $2 a share to prevent the appearance that Federal Reserve was rescuing shareholders at the expense of everyone else. In the end Jamie Dimon pushed for $10 and actually pay more, just to get the deal done. In the end, the headaches, fines, losses ended up being not worth it at all for JPM. The taxpayers netted $2.5B though from that deal. Today we have dudes like Bessent, Pulte, Patel. Literally nepo babies and the dumbest people. So yea, "The House" is going to lose.
Did I tell you? I can’t decide between “sexy Lorna Hajdini” from JPM or “sexy Ben Rickert” from the Big Short for my Halloween costume this year
JPM is the apple of banks
JPM is flat af for 3 months and the stripper i got with had a chase sapphire, seriously calls on jpm
I fucked a stripper and now my pp hurts, calls on JPM
Does JPM have prediction market trading desk? I think i can get hired for it. I will prob make so much money for them.
Thinking about puts on MU just because JPM is haussing it
Buy Treasuries maturing in 7 years - 5% guaranteed JPM preferred for 6%+ (though you take call risk) Infrastructure funds will get you 7%+ but then you start taking underlying asset price risk
JPM collar today always spicy eod ⬆️ or down
I have eyes on most the top players at blackrock, JPM, Jane street. If we hear them agree to tank the market this sub will be the first to know
If the story was JPM expects MU to miss consensus everyone would be running to dump their shares. The comments in here are the usual WSB both-good-and-bad-news-are-bad-news syndrome.
My queries have told meto expect more tomorrow. In fact the last one told me to watch the tape on JPM at open for a drop and a lift. I guess we will see what happens tomorrow.
PCE and JPM carry trade and month end rebalancing? Yes, baby
okay sure HBM is cool and everyone is talking about bandwidth like its the new oil or whatever BUT JPM saying 2k?? bro are you drunk? i mean yeah maybe we get some tech hype pump but 2000 per share is literally insane. feels like they want us to buy high so they can exit clean. i dont care if hbm3e is magic, that target is a joke. sus af. 🤡
JPM sees turnaround coming for Bear Stearns
yeah, bac and JPM tend to be wrong 100% of time, unless they want to make Leopold double down
Uh oh. If JPM is bullish publicly then it's time to inverse.
lol I sold puts on cvna it’s been heavy support at $59 for 3 months will change my mind if it crosses over, NFLX and JPM are good 6 month out calls tho
JPM is getting to an attractive price if it can hold 330
JPM had the US on track to default within 10 years, 2 years ago, lol Hence why I’m keeping lots of gold and silver
Where did the JPM bots go?
But there is. Walmart, Fed Ex, HOOD, NU, MELI, JPM, APP, and others have all confirmed AI has made them revenue.
Yo JPM is down, should i all in 90k?
I have like twenty different options that are like right at the ITM/ATM boundry and literally NOTHING is moving. Not a single option moving an inch. 337.5 JPM put just AFK for literally 5 minutes its unreal. Ive never seen such blatant options manipulation
Today is the day the entire global financial system unravels, and all it took was a .6% drop in SPY LOL. JPM and all banking stocks plummeting all week. Its COOKED.
hey i went and found half of my brain thanks for the suggestion. the datacenter buildout has been covered extensively (and more rigorously) by semianalysis, the first public report coming shortly after the JPM release. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/stop-saying-half-of-2026-us-datacenter https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/us-grid-constraints-towards-40gw https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/everyone-says-datacenter-moratoriums > If the data center hasn’t been built yet then the GPUs associated are not deployed because there is no where to put them. New GPUs come out annually making the ones collecting dust more and more obsolete. Buying GPUs for datacenters they dont have would be quite the story. I've seen speculation around this before based on chains of assumptions that don't match the real state of the public GPU market and model availability. considering its become easier and more available to rent the newest GPUs over the past 6-9 months, its pretty clear that capacity is coming online. Model providers have decreased prices and increased availability for models with the highest compute burden.
Pre-ipo SpaceX I thought it would be cool to be a part of it and wear a space x shirt or something. That and fomo because my buddies were getting in. My thesis against it was that Elon will never take anything public again (at the time, he was fighting Tesla for his comp package) About 11x on that. But my lockup period is a year so who knows. Might be 1x. Might be 20x JPM at $139: my buddy worked there. I wanted to tell him “you work for me” and generally troll him. 2.5x or so on that. Moral of the story: Regard is my strength.
I've only connected my Robinhood that I use for research. I trade on JPM and WFC as well.
MSTR is the JPM of Bitcoin
Damn what happened fo JPM
Why are $JPM and $SCHW dumping
Man I have 50k in JPM I’m in pain right now
Just sold JPM for a huge loss. Tired of huge loss every day now
You can't possibly forecast it with the war being a multi-month series of "ceasefires" followed up 24 hrs. later by "target bombed." I guess the only thing you can forecast is whether inventories are steady and whether boats are getting through. I can't see that shit, but I'm sure JPM and GS can and do.
$RBLX ---> $JPM still neutral rating but the tide is turning 'JPMorgan says Roblox's viral engagement inflected higher this past weekend. Peak platform concurrent users reached 28.7M on Saturday, the highest level since mid-December of last year'
These are the real questions we need asked. @Axios, can you report on the market odds of a #TACO. How many basis points we talking? What's the ignored downside and the rational upside? Will JPM be underwriting a Kalshi bet using Robinhood? Can we get some actual fucking news?
Brother, totally, specifically for this year 3/27, 3/30, 3/31 was the test. U literally are done trading for the year if u slammed it like a double down on the blackjack tables. A second day is July 28-31 which I call the Leopold day aka deleveraging event. Wall street ganged up and knew his port was levered in certain ways so the AI traded rotated out to AAPL, JPM, etc and he got margin called (but up 80% at least!) Cheers to the patient ones here waiting to pounce. Let's effing go! S&P and chill. FWIW: SPYM, IVV, VOO all have cheaper fees than SPY.
The one-day move is useful as a map of changed expectations, not a verdict on bank fundamentals. For JPM I’d separate three timelines: (1) the policy surprise, which was small because 25 bps was broadly anticipated; (2) the yield-curve and forward-path reaction, which can matter more to net interest income than the headline direction alone; and (3) company evidence—credit quality, deposit mix and pricing, capital, and loan growth. Unless the third bucket changed, I wouldn’t treat the day’s price move as proof that the underlying business changed. The interesting question is what the market repriced about the path, not simply “rates up = banks up.”
Have you read this memo in its entirety? I'm seeing only this quote on Twitter and reported elsewhere, with some scant additional claims from the memo like "In short, there is still enough dry powder to keep prices contained—for now." reported at Reuters: [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/jp-morgan-says-it-has-no-clear-oil-market-endgame-iran-conflict-drags-2026-09-17/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/jp-morgan-says-it-has-no-clear-oil-market-endgame-iran-conflict-drags-2026-09-17/) My argument was that JPM does have internal models, and if they're lying, they're lying and saying they don't have internal models that they do in fact have. I think it's more likely now that I've read the Reuters article that sensational reporting is half-assedly picking quotes from a JPM memo we don't have full access to
Not a JPM customer, but in the long term I'd trust someone who is willing to admit they don't know over someone who lies and says they do....
That's a good point and it could be JPM hedging on their part so they don't commit to a directional claim, but I imagine JPM's clients, if this even was a real internal memo sent to their clients, and if JPM didn't say anything more than this, don't like uncertainty and don't like hearing "idk" from analysts. In this case it probably would have been better to deliver all their analyses to their clients, since it doesn't make sense to assume they don't have ANY internal analysis at all in any direction. Otherwise, what are these analysts doing all day? Fire them and hire analysts that make claims.
I'm arguing against the status quo. I think there's 100% chance of a fold and I think it's more likely Iran that's going to do the folding. My main point was that "We simply don’t know how to model..." was unprofessional on JPM's part to claim to clients because if it's true then it calls attention to the fact that their analysts don't have a predictive model, which I also already argued that they don't have, and that their clients should also already know they don't have.
Okay bud. So you're smarter than JPM's entire commodity team? I guess you must be rich from trading commodities then right?
What I mean is that it's now and always has been a predictable scenario that Iran attacks tankers and shuts down the strait for a prolonged period of time. The events leading up to the shutdown shouldn't matter - US or international action, regional war, internal politics in Iran, civil war in Iran, rogue actor, etc. The fact that analysts don't have a general model or even opinion for prolonged disruption of oil traffic in one of the highest traffic places in the world is probably bullshit, and it's also probably bullshit that they don't have an opinion about this specific scenario, or JPM wouldn't have hired them. In fact I would argue that Iran is in probably the most desperate position that it could be out of all the above scenarios because of it and it's allies weak economies, weak militaries, dwindling military supplies, massive internal inflation in Iran, sanctions, and the fact that the last time there was internal unrest they had to kill like 30k people just to get the country back under control. Iran and the only countries who might reasonable bail them out (Russia and China) are under an incredible amount of pressure from economic problems with no viable militaries or force projection.
Financial analysts, throughout every downturn, have been unable to give banks any edge over losses, so any claims about their incompetence don't surprise me. But the fact that JPM's commodities team doesn't have anything to say about a completely predictable scenario of war in the middle east involving Iran, one of the most unstable countries in the world, attacking ships directly off their coast, is laughable. If they really did release this statement it's either a lie or someone is getting fired over it.
They won't give me one. Fuck you JPM. Gave Leopold all my credit expansion.
Till 2018 to 2021 it was like going full port etf but once I understood about the individual companies I started buying stonks like Meta (avg $98) JPM ($101) and this year it was TEAM 100k becomes over 1 mill in few years. No complains
JPM yesterday: "Stocks will go up 1-2% if the Fed hikes, they will go down 1-2% if they don't hike" Lmao, you couldn't make this shit up
It’s because of the repo market. If the fed increases the over night funds rate it increases the interest rate at which banks borrow from each other (or from the fed) to meet reserve requirements and fund last minute liquidity needs. Banks try to have as close to zero cash at the end of the day as possible banks want to loan every dollar that they have available right up to the very last dollar required to meet their reserve requirements. Say Bank of America has extra cash at the end of the day, they turn to the repo market and see if there are any other banks out there who are going to miss their reserve requirement and are asking to borrow. Maybe JPM is about to miss their reserve requirement and wants for borrow some money. Bank of America has a choice to make. Do I loan the money to JPM overnight or do I buy some 10Y notes (because buying 10Y notes are the next best thing since it’s considered risk free money) Bank of America will compare the interest rate that JPM is willing to pay to the interest rate that they can get on a 10Y note. At the same time, JPM won’t be willing to pay Bank of America much more than the overnight federal funds rate, because again JPM can turn around and borrow from the fed instead. If Bank of America decides the overnight rate is too low, they will turn around and buy 10Y notes. And JPM will go bid on overnight funds at the fed. This exact scenario happens so often and at such high volume that it effectively ties the federal funds rate directly to the 10Y note interest rate. If the federal funds rate goes up, Bank of America can demand more from JPM on the repo market, and Bank of America is less likely to buy 10Y notes. So the 10Y rate goes up. If the fed cuts rates, then Bank of America is more likely to buy 10Y notes instead and this drives 10Y interest rates down. The entire economy looks towards the 10Y note as the benchmark for risk free return. So any other investment has to beat the 10Y note on a risk adjusted basis. If the 10Y treasury is paying more interest, then equities become less attractive investments because equities are risky. Likewise B2B loans are less attractive because why loan B2B when you can get a risk free 10Y note? Borrowing becomes more expensive for borrowers when the 10Y yield goes up.
I've never seen these JPM notes play out as they wrote it
I use Robinhood for research. JPM to make money. WFC to hedge.
new Magnificent Seven announced: XOM, LLY, JPM, JNJ, UNH, BRK, V
And they were right. Every claim was settled. You better believe a conservative financial fortress like JPM or Blackrock would get bailed out if they went under. We're talking far worse than GD2 if they were allowed to fail. But even if they were failing, no one would have access to the Treasuries backing the tokens except token holders.
Mfers at JPM said no rate hike would cause the market to drop 1-2% 🤣
JPM - JPMorgan's Kinexys unit with Ripple, Ondo Finance and Mastercard just completed near-real-time cross-border settlement of **tokenized U.S. Treasuries** — flagged as "a tangible step toward fee-generating tokenization services" that lifted the stock.
A managed account fee is not based on percentage of profit. It's based on AUM or assets under management. At 21 - you probably don't need a managed account from an investment advisor. It is unlikely that you have the complexity where you benefit from using an adviser. If you don't know how to invest - use a robo-advisor. However - JPM/Chase recently shut down their roboadvisor services. Look at services from places like Fidelity/Schwab/Vanguard for low cost robo-advisors. Alternatively - just invest it yourself using broad index funds - scroll up - look at the Getting Started link for educational resources.
I hate Bank of America. They make Charlotte miserable, they make banking miserable, they make me miserable and I dropped them 15 years ago. This shit sucks. Probably working with Leo now that JPM said no.
Awesome bought some JPM calls and it literally just took a giant shit lol
Sure, higher rates are bullish for JPM
$JPM with the Double Secret upgrade $JPM upgrades $IREN to Overweight from Underweight - raises PT to $65 from $46