MSTR

lithe_silhouette

This is the second post over the weekend of someone riding $1 mil to zero on MSTR calls.

Electrical-Fold-748

Puts on MSTR it is

No_Collection_3104

The average analyst's MSTR price target is 520, that's a 220% upside

Desperate-Meat3477

Add MSTR -62%

F705TY

Let's be honest. MSTR is a retarded concept. They produce literally nothing of value. You played music chair with alot of money and lost.

WhoRuleTheWorld

Why is MSTR not that play but these other ones are?

elegance78

Dotcom MSTR would like to have a word...

SignificanceThis1265

Is MSTR a real company or a crypto meme ?

staygold-ne

MSTR calls?

MikeMikeGaming

MSTR holds BTC they generally don't sell

Professional-Math843

Naw strategy has a legit business plan if you were smart enough to look deeper into it the problem is your too early MSTR calls are for the bull market or the period preceding it no reason to buy calls this late in the game bro should have been buying puts after MSTR failed to achieve meaningful ath after Bitcoin did. Give it six to ten months and try again strategy is gonna crush it in a few years it’s no Ponzi scheme even if it does admittedly look a bit like one

staygold-ne

Im bullish MSTR.

blitzroyale

U deserve to lose not selling at those gains. I mean everyone knows MSTR is legalized ponzi scheme essentially and you don't take profit Yeah that's on you bud

elegance78

Could have just googled MSTR and what happened in dotcom bubble. Not their first "fraudish" (technically settled out of court) rodeo...

Adventurous-Sir444

Man, people are making bank off of MSTR and it's not you nor Saylor 😅

rainkloud

I listen to Adami and Nathan and one of the common narratives they've been pitching is that if the price of corn goes below MSTR's average price of $74k it could not only cause a precipitous fall in MSTR but also do a not inconsiderable amount of collateral damage to the wider market.

Ok-Amoeba4472

Womp Womp bro, anyone who deserves to make money would've sold MSTR long time ago, the dip just keeps dipping. HODLL

uj7895

What happens when MSTR gets booted from the index January 15th? And what happens to bitcoin when all the reverse merger DT’s get booted right behind them? That looks like it’s pretty much a certainty at this point.

sportingpool

it might be the Japanese bond market. its moving. but it isnt supposed to, because its too big at 10tn. attached to it is the Yen carry trade, and furthe rdown the line risky assets. this can put MSTR out of business within 2 month. bitcoin would be free again :-)

Evening-Nobody-7674

sort term bounce. MSTR could easily drop if btc hit $75k over the weekend too.

WSB-Rizzler

Are you talking about the recent one, or the guy last year who made 1 million on MSTR fds and then lost it all in a week?

Jebusfreek666

You forgot MSTR lol

Normal-Meringue7592

Literally spend 5 more minutes researching what is likley to happen to MSTR in January. They are possibly getting of the Nasdaq 100. 28 billion in outflows… this thing is going to 50 bucks

cohibababy

MSTR, but I'll pass...

Mjkzeus

Just so I understand this correctly. You put everything you had on 1 thing? 1 thing that happened to be the most risky, “Options” On top of the fact it was crypto? MSTR Calls? I’m not going to sugar coat this cause you honestly are either absolutely mentally handicapped or a psychotic idiot. Asking for a job?? You got some balls kid…..

jraiv420

Is it true that MSTR might get dropped from index funds?

usually_guilty99

Mine looks like that or close - but I have recovered back two times over - first time it was about 800K and this time about 660K - I am not that worried. I am in MSTR CRWV COIN CRCL shit!!!

sovereign_MD

Yes, MSTR will either go up or down and thus calls or puts will be profitable

AdeptnessPlus6860

Why wouldn’t btc just go to 1$ us? Everyone would agree MSTR delisting looks rational too

TheoryInttro

Bears will be eating crypto bro faces, one can hope. MSTR to 0

RareEurf

I’m convinced MSTR & 🌽 will rally beyond like what we’ve never seen, never seen this much hate before.

butterchurning

Please be cautious with crypto assets until BTC has bottomed.. it's going to at least 74k if not lower. There's a short term bounce possibility but expect lower after that. I expect that many of these pennystocks won't survive. MSTR going to sub-$100.

greyenlightenment

MSTR chart looks like lahman in 2008 lol

chriswasmyboy

Doug Kass put the kibosh on MSTR 3 months ago, asserting that investors were paying an absurd premium for MSTR’s bitcoin holdings. Kass was dead right and made a killing going long bitcoin and short MSTR in equal dollar amounts. MSTR is down from $420 when Kass did that, bitcoin was $110,000. So no, MSTR will not triple from here unless bitcoin goes north of $150,000. Investors learned a hard lesson how overvalued stocks like MSTR can get destroyed simply because they were hugely overvalued.

zachspornaccount

If we go into a serious recession/depression starting right now, ignore what I'm about to say. If markets continue sideways to up like they usually do what I'm about to say is incredibly relevant. You're showing up probably somewhere around the 8th or 9th inning of a move. I believe it's down about 65-70% from all time highs. The time to go short is when it's high. It is now almost a quarter or what it was. At that point I'd be more apt to take the other side of the trade and go long MSTR. Stocks can go down like 90% but it's rare. This is just anecdotal but in my experience most companies that fall out of favor (weed stocks, oil, tech, etc) drops about 70% and then distributes for a long long time just trading sideways before people remember weed stocks are interesting and then it starts to ramp back up. Go look up how far Google and Amazon and Cisco dropped after the dotcom. I would be it's like 70-80% probably not 95. So microstrategy has dropped 70% in what like 6 weeks? And maybe it goes completely bust and drops 95 or 100 but at this point there's not much meat left on the bone unless they completely go bankrupt. Furthermore, the market discounts leverage and debt. I.e. when oil is very low (like 20-40/barrel in a recession) all the oil companies with big debt drop the MOST because of uncertainty. (What if they go bankrupt?). And then if oil prices increase like 20% suddenly "oh! That debt laden company probably isn't going bankrupt because the oil margins came back!" These companies generally outperform by a lot. Oil goes up 20%, Exxon goes up 50% and the debt laden almost dead companies go up 100-150%. (But it was risky they were almost bankrupt). So all that is to say microstrategy seems to be on a speed run of that process I just described. They have the most debt and the most Bitcoin. Bitcoin just dropped 30%, kind of a big move for a currency/commodity. If it has a dead cat bounce to 95 or even trades sideways at 100k for a year, expect microstrategy to rip because 1) all of their holdings went up in value 25% 2) the debt becomes less dangerous/questionable in the eyes of the market 3) they probably bought some of the dip that we're in right now and will look very smart Your decision and maybe you're right and they go fully bankrupt, but after such a big move I wouldn't press shorts now.

Megg187

Only puts of MSTR it’s 💩

BernedTendies

This has got to be one of the dumbest ones I’ve seen in a decade of being in this subreddit. MSTR is a Ponzi scheme you dingus

Plus_Seesaw2023

Why not ?!? The same people said the same thing about BTC when it was at $45,000!!! The same people also said the same thing about NVDA when the stock was at $50! The same people said the same thing about TSM at $80. MSTR will return to its ATH sooner or later, just as BTC always has...

Plus_Seesaw2023

Exactly. And people are throwing trillions at NVDA, ORCL, and OpenAI like it’s a magic money printer, while households end up paying for the grid upgrades their servers guzzle. Mega-corporation-funded utopia? More like a bubble powered by our bills. NB. This guy took calls on MSTR. He should have just bought some BTC or ETH and gone on vacation. Because sooner or later... we all know how the story ends...

Theleniel

he‘s probably waiting for what he considers the true dip and then will announce „MSTR has acquired 1 more billion $ of btc“

friedbymoonlight

No position, npr analyst claimed it was run down by assignment of futures contracts.  If it’s not moving, maybe the process ended but buyers skittish. Maybe MSTR was selling puts 

Educational_Pride404

Bro MSTR fucked me too. Once I did some DD I stopped playing it. You should too. So here’s the DD. Originally they were the first btc treasury company, so their price was correlated to btc. It rose dramatically from two factors, one obviously btc price increase, but two investors buying the stock to get btc exposure. However, now btc is down. Not only that there’s more than one option for btc derivatives and access to btc directly is widely available. So they’ve lost their competitive edge. I don’t see this stock rebounding to ATH for a long while unless btc goes ham, or they have some huge earnings report and great guidance on some new big thing the company is doing.

Lord_Tywin_Goldstool

Quite possibly. Same thing happened during the liberation day BTC crash. MSTR went up 75% over a month.

AnonymousOtter9124

MSTR short squeeze?

ExtremeHamster

You had a mill and live in Toronto.. I too live in Toronto. I could've told you not to get anywhere near MSTR and we could've been riding on 3% profits a month or something (maybe). Damn shame

TamingOfTheChoon

Just play long dated MSTR calls at the bottom of the bear market in 2027 and you’ll be right back baby

CaptainGreenwich

It's not over until it's over! More MSTR Calls!!

thatGUY2220

Pretty brutal OP sorry about these losses. I have to question the thought process though about loading up on MSTR calls without any corresponding hedge. Someone smart enough to accumulate this amount of money surely could’ve thought about what would happen if it did not go his way. IBKR has a risk navigator tool that could’ve helped avoid total destruction.

Ante_social_music

I know it’s been said before, but these corn treasury companies might actually be one of the biggest risk factor for the entire market. BTC is meant to circumvent and undermine corporations, not empower them. It’s funny because it might actually fulfill that purpose anyways since when one entity has to sell their entire treasury, the next biggest will have to as well, and so forth untill it hits MSTR and goes nuclear.

Regardedcontrarianx

MSTR down 63%

pmotiveforce

MSTR is literally just a Gamblers Fallacy ETF. See, even if BTC goes down you just double down and buy more. Since it will always go back up (to $300k by EO 2026) that means no matter what you are safe. First sentence 100% true. Second sentence 100% false.

AnxiousSeason

Lost 70% myself. Went from like 200k to 45k. Two years worth of savings - pissed away because MSTR and Saylor kept top blasting and ATMing. I felt sick to my stomach for three days. Finally took a long walk. Cried. Said sorry to myself. Identified what I did wrong. Took ownership. Took a breath. Then headed back home. I’m still raw. But healing. We will bounce back. But we learned a lot of lessons, didn’t we?

CoC_Axis_of_Evil

Why would Vanguard hold MSTR when there are a bunch of ETFs now? Are they a bunch of braindead boomers over there, what are they doing

StonkBr0ker

Just think about the shorts on the other side of the MSTR trade and how amazing you made their lives. It's almost like charity. You're a regular mother theresa

13rockPurdy

MSTR calls? Yeah you should just stick to bank directed 401k

dathwathup

“Hey guys I lost all my money playing MSTR, please hook me up with a lucrative SWE job because I’m sad and you should feel bad for me” 😭

Bigbuttyman

MSTR follows crypto, crypto bros will tell you the 4 year cycle has ended and its going into a bear, whether thats true or not, the market will still be a self fulfilling prophecy of people front running the cycle end and selling thus dropping the price of bitcoin, if anything you could have sold puts and got paid to buy shares then wait for it to recover I feel your pain though, I traded 200k to 1.7m in crypto, then the tariffs hit and i lost 50%, then a revenge trade dropped me to 300k, a few months later i got it back to 800k to then only get wiped on October 10th flash crash and now I am down to 200k. Its painful, but we need to learn what we did wrong to prevent it happening again, you'll get a lot of what if moments but the past is gone, there is not point mentally torturing yourself, we can only move forward so take into account what went wrong, so you can improve and learn to trade better.

Lord_Tywin_Goldstool

Exactly, most hated on wsb: 🌽, MSTR and TSLA. The hatred sustains them.

ExtremeAddict

Why not MSTR puts?

Hephaestus4

BMNR, CRCL and MSTR will likely in single digit stock price nexr year. I am just playing the bounce and bail.

brucekeller

Just remember that the smaller the company, the more they are going to end up diluting to try and buy more BTC. In this regard, MSTR looks a lot better since they've already done a bunch of that dilution. I'd stay away from NAKA, that's for sure. Pretty sure the exec team of that has a non-extradition country in their future lol.

ElDueno

Lmao bro asking for job connections on here after showing your huge lack of self control and inability to make responsible decisions is next level delusional behavior. On the bright side that massive loss saved you a bunch in taxes. Don’t forget you can’t make any MSTR trades for the next 30 days or you won’t lock on that loss on your 2025 taxes

Ok-Needleworker1964

You are better to buy puts on Semler Scientific SMLR they are also leveraged bitcoin play but unlike MSTR are way overvalued. They have basically gave up on their medical business and have secured financing to buy BTC above 100k and have excessive legal costs i have done some basic research see below Legal actions and expected cash costs - DOJ/HHS settlement: A large, near-term cash obligation (commonly cited around the low‑$30M range). Timing in late 2025 tightened liquidity precisely as operating performance was weakening. - Class actions and defense costs: Additional exposure likely in the mid‑eight figures when combining potential damages and defense/admin expenses. Even if ultimate damages land lower, cash defense costs are real and front‑loaded. - Merger-related litigation: Incremental legal spend adds friction to already limited cash resources, raising the aggregate legal burden. - Bear implication: Legal cash outflows arrive ahead of or regardless of operating recovery, creating forced liquidity events (BTC sales or financing) during unfavorable market windows. --- Bitcoin position and unrealized losses - Holdings concentration: BTC dominates the asset base; holdings scaled rapidly in 2025 via convertibles and ATM issuance. - Average purchase cost: New 2025 tranches clustered near the high‑$90Ks to ~$100K per BTC. That’s materially above long‑run Bitcoin acquisition averages seen at peers. - Current mark vs. cost: At BTC in the mid‑$80Ks USD, unrealized losses accumulate in the tens of millions (commonly estimated around $50M–$65M depending on tranche weighting and exact holdings). - Earnings impact: Fair‑value changes run through the P&L, adding volatility and potential headline risk when BTC trades below cost basis. - Bear implication: High-cost BTC plus fair‑value accounting amplifies drawdowns, weakens reported results, and increases the chance of selling into weakness to meet cash needs. --- Insider sales and governance signals - Insider selling: Management has filed and executed notable sales, including authorizations suggesting intent to reduce exposure. - Ownership concentration: Institutions dominate the float; concentrated holders can accelerate downside via block sales or reduced support. - Bear implication: Insider divestment during stress periods undermines confidence in near‑term recovery and increases perceived governance risk. --- Merger outlook and strategic execution risk - Likely failed merger narrative: Ongoing legal scrutiny, liquidity strain, and market skepticism point to low probability of successful, value‑accretive merger execution. - Integration and distraction risk: Even if a deal were pursued, legal overhangs and treasury volatility impair focus and balance‑sheet flexibility. - Bear implication: Without merger relief, Semler remains a leveraged BTC proxy with shrinking healthcare revenue contribution, limiting strategic optionality. --- Cash flow profile and liquidity stress - Operating revenue vs. expenses: Healthcare revenue trends are soft; quarterly revenue (~single‑digit millions) has been barely covering operating expenses (SG&A + R&D + COGS). - Cash balance: Around ~$10M mid‑2025, insufficient for legal settlements plus ongoing operations. - Debt service: Convertible notes at 4.25% imply ~$4.25M annual interest, paid semiannually (~$2.125M). With conversion far out‑of‑the‑money, cash repayment obligation persists. - Runway math: Combining operating burn, interest, and legal outflows yields > $50M cash need in H2 2025 into early 2026, far exceeding on‑hand cash. - Bear implication: Liquidity gap necessitates asset sales (BTC), further dilution (ATM), or expensive refinancing—each negative for equity holders. --- Debt structure and creditor dynamics - Instrument: Convertible senior notes due 2030, issued to fund BTC acquisitions, held by institutional buyers. - Conversion economics: Initial conversion near ~$76/share; with stock around ~$19, conversion is deeply out‑of‑the‑money. - Creditor options: Hold for coupon, trade notes at a discount if credit risk rises, or negotiate early exchanges/buybacks if liquidity tightens. - Bear implication: Equity is structurally subordinated to cash debt service; in stress, creditors gain leverage while equity faces dilution or forced BTC sales. --- Likely BTC sales to meet obligations - Estimated liquidation need (Jul 2025–Jan 2026): Roughly ~625–720 BTC at an average ~$86.5K price to fund interest, operating expenses, and legal settlement cash calls, assuming minimal external financing. - Sensitivity: At $80K BTC, sales rise toward ~750–800 BTC; at $90K BTC, sales could drop toward ~600 BTC. - Bear implication: Forced selling into weakness compounds unrealized losses, reduces treasury optionality, and may trigger negative feedback loops in reported results. --- Bear thesis triggers and monitoring signals - Near-term cash events: Confirmation of payment timing for large settlements; any 8‑K signaling added financing or asset sales. - Debt market signals: Pricing of the convertibles in secondary markets; indications of exchange offers or covenant pressure. - Insider and institutional flows: Additional insider selling; large holders reducing positions. - BTC price sensitivity: Sustained trading below the company’s blended cost increases P&L volatility and liquidation needs. - Operational traction: Any continued decline in healthcare revenue widens the cash burn and heightens reliance on treasury maneuvers. --- Counterpoints to pressure-test the thesis - BTC rally: A sustained move above the company’s blended cost (~$100K) flips unrealized losses to gains, improving optics and potentially enabling opportunistic financing. - Financing access: Successful, non‑punitive refinancing or sizable ATM proceeds could bridge cash needs without heavy BTC sales. - Legal resolution below expectations: Lower-than-feared damages or extended payment schedules reduce immediate liquidity strain. --- Bottom line The bear case centers on stacked liquidity stress: high-cost BTC with sizable unrealized losses, insider selling, a weak probability of merger relief, and legal cash outflows colliding with limited operating cash and debt service obligations. In practice, that means ongoing BTC sales, dilution via ATM, or costly refinancing—each unfavorable for equity holders unless BTC materially rallies or legal burdens ease.

trustmeimshady

Ok so there’s these thing called RGTI and MSTR (I also like the rare earth minerals hype but sadly inverse doesn’t exist) but direxion/ defiance has these inverse funds. The case for MSTR is it is super already leveraged, debt, public etc so if bitcoin goes stagnant or even sees a 20-25% haircut to a healthier level then MSTZ easily triples. Same thing with RGTI has an inverse RGTZ. RGTI financials are based on something that doesn’t even exist. When the market is stagnant at the bubble top these are interesting plays. (Definitely don’t hold an inverse more than 3 months tho as inverse leveraged etfs get murdered due to decay)

Ahzmer

MSTR calls or puts. Corn volatility is guaranteed, but hard to say which direction at this point - when we are already in extreme fear territory. It could recover fast, screwing calls, or keep dropping and make fast 2-10 bagger. While there are many volatile stocks that will either rally or jump off a cliff, crypto isnt as closely linked to sp500 anymore, giving you a slight edge imo.

Aromatic_Union9246

I mean MSTR is gonna keep dropping, I haven’t looked at the options chain in a. Minute but a lot of it probably priced in because it’s had high volume swings recently. I personally wouldn’t touch it at the moment. I’m a long term MSTR holder started buying in 2020. And I sold like 75% of my stack 3 months ago. I’m gonna try to swing trade and get as close to the bottom that I can but I think it’s got a ways to go down.

trustmeimshady

Ok so there’s these thing called RGTI and MSTR (I also like the rare earth minerals hype but sadly inverse doesn’t exist) but direxion/ defiance has these inverse funds. The case for MSTR is it is super already leveraged, debt, public etc so if bitcoin goes stagnant or even sees a 20-25% haircut to a healthier level then MSTZ doubles. Same thing with RGTI has an inverse RGTZ. RGTI financials are based on something that doesn’t even exist. When the market is stagnant at the bubble bubble top these are interesting plays. (Definitely don’t hold an inverse more than 3 months tho as inverse leveraged etfs get murdered due to decay)

NewLifeInAfghanistan

MSTR is still trading at a premium to nav, since btc intrinsic value is zero 😎

caeru1ean

I was printing money with MSTR puts this week lol

Tehsillz

the problem so far is that if BTC does a slight bump, then MSTR goes +8% in minutes or even seconds, for reasons.

onion76

I mean, judging by how MSTR fell over the past while, making calls is way too risky for my taste. If you're gonna make a contract, at least buy puts over a long period (so you have time to sell if you make a profit) or buy MSTZ. Still risky, but it's way better than betting calls on something that declined 50% this past year.

onion76

My real question is, why the heck would you dabble in MSTR calls when it's been declining over the last few months???

brucekeller

It's pretty wild that Norway's sovereign wealth fund invested in MSTR lol.

Ill-Program-2980

See you Monday morning when market opens! Degenerate gambling is a helluva drug! Go all in on 0DTE to make up the losses! MSTR calls!

dataCollector42069

I need corn to rise just to short MSTR at a better price again

Specialist_Fig9458

MSTR puts

thupkt

What was your favorite way to trade MSTR long calls during its biggest pants shitting ever? As often as possible? I’ve been there man. I took ten years off trading. It helps.

RelevantEmergency707

MSTR will be liquidated if there is a dip to 70k then the whole thing will collapse

Guilty_Fishing8229

He knows the money can be remade. Just needs to buy some more MSTR calls.

Temlehgib

I only play ODTE MSTR calls…

EquipmentFew882

Hello OP, Sorry to see that you accumulated losses on MSTR. I'm very skeptical about MSTR as a business model . I noticed that subreddit communities like MSTR , BITCOIN and even BUTTCOIN are aggressively banning, censoring and muting users of Reddit -- from commenting about the viability of Bitcoin or of MSTR. I think we need transparency and truth to Protect our Investment Savings. Best wishes and good luck to everyone.

Not_Bed_

You're telling me you made 700k with MSTR options AND still managed to lose it all? https://preview.redd.it/fc3t2s4r4t2g1.jpeg?width=128&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=930bac8ef3b21efb37449ed2e2707c0a233f66a2

gopoohgo

Sometimes I feel bad for not parking $200k in NVDA five years ago.  Then I see smooth brained posts about gambling $800k CAD on MSTR calls and I don't feel as bad 

Basic-Kale3169

MSTR is a leveraged bitcoin proxy. The stock itself already acts like call options on BTC.

TearConsistent

My green flag is that I know I would have done the same as you. Not gambling on MSTR but yea essentially gambling all gains to win more.

Intelligent-End2483

MSTR calls really turned that chart into a horror movie

stupidber

There was that one guy last year who went from $1k to $1M buying MSTR calls. But then he lost it all so point taken

Specific_Welcome1253

I can feel your pain man i just lost 300 bucks on MSTR too

Initial_Ad2228

Should have tried MSTR puts

Cracked_Tendies

Good insight. Most won't realize that there's no way to escape investing. You're either investing in SGOV (USD) or something with a risk premium Also, nice job holding that MSTR/BTC pairs trade I closed my MSTR short at the very peak of MSTR price and I still made money lol Was my first time shorting anything and idk if I like the feeling enough to do it again. Completely different vibe than vanilla long investing

MikeMikeGaming

I am smiling from ear to ear seeing BTC's non-stop collapse knowing full fell I am balls deep in MSTR puts for January

Boeington

It is the principe of MSTR. It drop around 40 weeks before BTC. Cycle is always the same 152 weeks up 52 weeks down... restart *

throwaway0845reddit

Would you say keeping the MSTR stock long term (not options) is also a bad bet?

GirthyLeviathan

It’s enough to buy one share of MSTR.

Firm_Afternoon_8463

Bought MSTR in my roth at 450$, glad i took the loss at 350$

Icy-Video-3643

Trying to trade MSTR options is just handing your money to the volatility gods. This is a brutal but necessary lesson learned the hard way.

ispooler

Are you still playing those 22k? Maybe you wanna buy 20k on short dated MSTR puts

Affectionate-Drop689

i learn my lesson last year when it got pumped then some guy said they open a short position on MSTR left that shit in the back since

Gorgenapper

Reminder that while you're bagging those fries, some retard lost $742k CAD on short dated MSTR calls

mustang37116

And he’d promptly blow it all on MSTR calls