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$CAKE $OWL $ET $MRO Todays YOLO bets for Earnings BULLISH
Blue $Owl | Professional Sports Minority Investments Commenced | 2021 AUM: $0.2 billion
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things that will be impacted by the closure of the strait of hormuz outside of oil - nat gas, fertilizers, helium. next would be vix calls. give yourself some runway for volatility. spy puts. inverse etfs - FAZ for banks (read abt private credit, OWL puts), TSLQ (reading nothing but bad news for tsla). i’m bearish on ai, but trying to time the bubble might be hard. my pick for a winner out of this is google. CRWV and ORCL are full of hot air so i have puts for 2027. MSTZ bc i cant stand michael saylor lol. pretty cheap rn if you wanna gamble on them. his house of cards will come crumbling in time. otherwise cash. wait for market to dump more bc of this war and buy the companies you like at a discount.
Hi guys I was out with my real life acquaintances How are my internet colleagues doing? TLDR on tonight? Did Voldemort sent an announcement via OWL that night tank the markets?
What do you think is causing redemption requests in private equity companies like OWL. Software AI scare where they have risky loans on the books? But if software companies are not as disaffected by AI wouldn’t this cause these stocks to bounce back. I agree it’s complicated but they seem to have gotten excessively beaten down by OWL’s recent problems and contagion fears.
I yolo’d into $OWL today. Pray 4 me
Black Rock and Morgan Stanley are BOTH! now rejecting Withdrawal Redemptions. Tickers being heavily shorted are $OWL and $BIZD which is a Private Credit ETF and has options. You know what to do WSB!
Too much greed for OWL. Hoping it will fall more and more…
While there's a lot of risk in private credit right now, picking up a stock like OWL below its IPO price with a 9.5% dividend is VERY tempting. Maybe a better selection would be to buy call options: less money up front, so you can't get as hurt if the proverbial knife keeps falling.
private credit is at a cliff, and the global stagflation slide will shove it over. OWL is still in for a lot of pain.
Tell me why I shouldn’t full port OWL
The recent moves by BlackRock (early March 2026) and now Morgan Stanley (March 11, 2026) to impose or tighten redemption limits on flagship private credit funds highlight growing liquidity stress in the $1.8–2 trillion private credit sector. This isn't isolated—it's part of a broader wave of investor anxiety, redemption surges, and structural mismatches in semi-liquid/open-ended private credit vehicles (e.g., non-traded BDCs and evergreen funds).BlackRock (HPS Corporate Lending Fund / HLEND) * What happened: Investors requested 9.3% redemptions ($1.2B) in Q1 2026; BlackRock enforced the standard 5% quarterly cap, paying out only \~$620M (per fund letter and Reuters/Bloomberg reports). * Why: First time HLEND (acquired via 2024 HPS deal) has gated since inception. Reflects broader unease over lending standards, software/AI exposure risks, and illiquidity in private credit. * Market reaction: BLK shares fell \~7–8% on the news (late morning March 6), contributing to a weak start for 2026 among alt managers. Morgan Stanley (North Haven Private Income Fund or similar) * What happened: Investors sought to redeem \~11% of shares outstanding; MS restricted redemptions (likely to 5% or similar cap), returning far less than requested (filing showed partial payouts). * Why: Echoes the same redemption pressure seen at BlackRock, Blackstone (BCRED raised cap to 7% after 7.9% requests + internal cash injection), Blue Owl (halted some redemptions), and others. * Context: MS private credit funds (part of MSIM's alternatives platform) face the same illiquidity mismatch: quarterly liquidity promises vs. long-duration, hard-to-sell loans. Broader Implications & Analysis * Structural problem: Private credit funds (especially retail-accessible BDCs) offer periodic redemptions (often 5% quarterly) to attract wealth investors, but underlying assets are illiquid. When requests exceed caps, managers gate to avoid forced sales at discounts → protects remaining investors but erodes confidence. * Why now?: * Rising defaults/restructurings (PIK interest, software sector stress from AI disruption). * Geopolitical/macro fears (Iran war → oil spikes → inflation/stagflation → Fed paralysis → higher borrowing costs). * Retail/wealth outflows: Wealth platforms pulled back after high-profile issues (e.g., First Brands/Tricolor bankruptcies). * Sector contagion risk: Gates at big names (BlackRock, MS) can trigger more redemptions elsewhere (fear of missing liquidity window). Could pressure asset prices, widen spreads, and slow new commitments. * Critical minerals tie-in: Private credit funds often finance mining/exploration (e.g., juniors in rare earths/scandium like NioCorp/IBC peers). Tighter liquidity → less capital for projects → delays in domestic supply chains (e.g., Elk Creek, Araxá analogs). Positive side: forced discipline may favor stronger balance sheets and proven projects. Bottom LineThis is a classic liquidity crunch moment in private credit—not a systemic crisis yet, but a warning sign. Gates protect funds short-term but can accelerate outflows if trust erodes. Watch for: * More managers following (e.g., Blackstone/Blue Owl updates). * Impact on alt manager stocks (BLK, MS, BX, OWL down sharply). * Potential Fed/SEC scrutiny on semi-liquid structures.
OWL is below $9. Something that the insiders know but we don’t?
So many ill informed people surrounding private credit and evergreen funds. Default rates in middle market private credit, historically have been lower than BSL or HY. The asset class benefits from smaller club (lenders) that can work strategically with the portfolio company/sponsor should the business underperform. Gates and redemption limits are explicitly detailed in offering docs and investors sign up knowing very well they are buying into funds primarily invested in illiquid assets. I’m long BX, OWL, and ARCC. Those mgmt fees aren’t going away and the underlying collateral quality seems to still be sound. AI and software disruption is real - but definitely a bit overblown as it relates to many of the businesses these PC managers lended to.
Why OWL going down again? Perhaps something insiders know but we don’t.
Fear is not a good reason to sell but is the most common reason. BLK is fine. OWL is fine. Fear can still hurt them but I’m holding because there is nothing actually wrong except fear. Now if one of these companies stops raking in billions I’ll start to worry.
Hmm... Guess U weren't around in 2008, huh? # No safety net: Why private credit faces it first real moment of truth **Provided by Dow Jones** \- Private credit is easy to enter but hard to exit. Retail investors suddenly seeking their money back could trigger a financial crisis. A spiral of illiquidity, forced selling, markdowns, and intense risk deleveraging could emerge. Sound familiar? It happened with securitization markets during the **2007-08 financial crisis**. The recent selloff of Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) stock after a redemption at one of its retail private-credit funds has become the poster child for increasing anxiety about the health of the private-credit market. Private credit has grown rapidly in recent years - approaching $2 trillion - and it has never been tested through a full recession or highly volatile financial-market stress. Private credit does not have the financial backstop of the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve, unlike most banks. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned after a pair of private credit-backed companies declared bankruptcy that problems in private credit are rarely isolated. **Wall Street braces for a private credit meltdown** The fault line exposed now is that private credit is being offered to retail investors and wealthy individuals whose investment objectives are very different from sophisticated institutional investors. These new investors will quickly line up to get their money back, effectively forcing sales of illiquid assets, as in the case of Blue Owl. Shares of Blue Owl hit a 52-week low earlier this month, as did shares of Blackstone (BX). Other major firms including Carlyle Group (CG), KKR (KKR), Apollo Global Management (APO) and Ares Management (ARES) were also caught in the selloff. Private credit-related defaults, particularly among private equity-backed companies, have accelerated significantly in 2025 and early 2026. According to a March 6, 2026, report from Fitch Ratings, the U.S. Private Credit Default Rate hit a **record 9.2%** in 2025, following a previous record of 8.1% in 2024, with 38 defaults recorded among 28 different borrowers.
Yep, looks like that private credit problem is starting to get out of control... # BlackRock shares tumble over 7% after firm limits withdrawals from private credit fund **Forbes 2hrs ago** \- BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK), the world’s largest asset manager, saw its shares slide over 7% on Friday after the company capped withdrawals from one of its private credit funds, sending its stock to a low point not seen since May 2025. The firm’s stock closed down 7.2% on Friday to $955.45, continuing a string of losses that began last week. BlackRock has restricted withdrawals from its private credit fund after a surge in redemption requests, becoming the latest to be highlighted in the broader private credit issue. In February, Blue Owl Capital (OWL) permanently restricted withdrawals from a $1.6B private credit vehicle and sold $1.4B in loans to pension funds and its own insurance company. The news comes amid growing concerns about systemic risks in the $1.8T private credit market. 
it's concerning because multiple funds have been doing it around the same time and outside the communicated withdrawal structure for their investors. OWL did the same
OWL and ARES leap poots
$OWL is going bankrupt from billions in toxic subprime debts they have no way of paying back to their creditors- easiest short of my generation. Anyone who isn't short Blue Owl is an idiot
$OWL is going bankrupt from billions in toxic subprime debts they have no way of paying back to their creditors- easiest short of my generation. Anyone who isn't short Blue Owl is an idiot
Out of all software stocks to rotate into… you pick DUOL… not CRM, NOW… even OWL another owl stock you pick DUOL…. you deserve to get pooped on. 💃💃💃🤣
Just a narrative.. KKR, OWL's own management is loading up on their stocks like crazy
Is this a bigger problem or just for OWL bagholders?
>Wall Street opened the week under heavy pressure as risk sentiment deteriorated on AI-related credit concerns and fresh trade uncertainty amid the feud between President Donald Trump and the Supreme Court. >The blue-chip index was weighed down by sharp losses in financial names. A wave of selling hit asset managers after concerns emerged around a private credit fund managed by Blue Owl Capital Inc. (NYSE:OWL). The firm announced it is liquidating $1.4 billion in assets to raise money to pay out individual investors Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE:APO) sank 6.6% on the day, marking its worst session since Liberation Day. Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) slid 6.7% and has now dropped 16% over the past three sessions, its steepest three-day decline since March 2020, touching the lowest level since late 2023. Ares Management Corp. (NYSE:ARES) fell 6.3% KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) tumbled 8.3%, extending its monthly loss to 20%, the worst stretch since 2015. The weakness spilled into established financial heavyweights. American Express (NYSE:AXP) dropped 7.4%, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) lost 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) retreated 4.5%. For the broader Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) it’s the worst day since early April 2025.
Nobody gives a fuck about Blue OWL, bruh. BRUH
Didn't OWL go public via SPAC? Hasn't been the greatest investment before this and there's considerable risk - names like this are always going to be 10 slow steps forward 7-8 quick steps backwards. I'd rather KKR near April 2025 lows if I wanted private equity names.
I disagree. The private credit market began falling apart when the Fed started raising rates. That's what broke OWL and their competitors - the sudden and precipitous drop in loan values and the rapid widening of spreads to historic levels. It was interest rate INCREASES that did that. And the fallout the private credit market is experiencing now is the end result of those increases finally filtering their way throughout the economcy. Bringing interest rates down further will help to restore loan values and tighten spreads. All good things for the private credit market.
Fuck Blue Owl, all my homies hate $OWL: https://preview.redd.it/i31049jbblkg1.png?width=695&format=png&auto=webp&s=586228952ca0a80e08c370ab311d07c8f8caec81
You realize that when the new fed chair takes office - if rates goes down - bdc's go down faster. I'm not saying Warsh is a Trump yes.man but I did see his name in some Epstein related posts recently. The only reason bdc's did so well the past few years were rising/higher for longer interest rates. When rates go down OWL be fuk.d
I think we’re at or near bottom. The whole private credit sector has been punished now for a solid year and longer. The market’s so pessimistic that any meaningful good news will cause a quick snap back for the sector and stocks like OWL specifically. I’m going to start by opening a position, maybe like $2500 or $5000. Then wait for the next leg up or leg down before making another move.
OWL is proof positive that liquidity is getting pulled from private credit firms - the structure propping up this bubble - and y'all are more worried about fake PCE readings.
We really not talking about OWL?
I'm the guy getting F'D by the OWL collapse. AMA
I must have been living in a barn, but I have no clue what $OWL was till i read this post.
All in on OWL. Not sure if puts or calls. Split the difference
Meta has strapped OWL down with a.i. debt at the same time commercial real estate defaults are spiking Avoid that one
Yes OWL took a close look and backed out...which is why I'm buying the dip on OWL. Smart management.
Last 10 days I got HOOD, more RDDT, OWL & thought about SPOT but I already had some (facepalm). Everything is going to plan so far. I had a ton of cash.
Virtually everything is down right now, but some I'd investigate are: FBYD - Falcon Beyond Global Janux OWL CRMD
I'll go to my grave clenching all 13.3954 shares of OWL. They have a bonkers dividend 🦉
Private credit KKR OWL in shambles and CRWV barely down for the day? What else are these private credit funds doing besides datacenter anyway?
why is OWL down so much ive never seen stocks swing so much in my entire life
Check their SEC filings, they have a prospectus on hand, probably for their "execution" phase of builidng. No revenue coming in and no hyperscaler partner. It's great for the OWL partnership, but now they need cash to build the actual facility
Nuai news from Friday night New Era, Primary Digital to build 1GW+ Texas campus | OWL Stock News https://share.google/kOR98WOFOc4dYkfzI
NUAI big news!! Partnership with OWL, opens up big opportunity to large hyperscaler partnerships, think NVIDIA, AWS, Oracle, etc… could fly on Tuesday https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/26/01/b49982992/new-era-energy-digital-partners-with-primary-digital-infrastructure-to-co-develop-up-to-1-gigawatt
OWL is (or was) a private capital bucket. Perhaps they are not out of AI business yet. "Blue Owl Capital pulls out from funding Oracle’s $10 billion data center." [https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/blue-owl-opts-not-to-fund-oracles-10bn-michigan-data-center/](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/blue-owl-opts-not-to-fund-oracles-10bn-michigan-data-center/)
# Blue Owl BDC Allows for 17% Redemptions as Investors Storm Exit [Blue Owl Capital Inc.](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OWL:US) is dramatically increasing the amount of money investors can pull from one of its private credit funds after being hit with a deluge of redemption requests last month. [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/blue-owl-bdc-allows-for-17-redemptions-as-investors-storm-exit](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/blue-owl-bdc-allows-for-17-redemptions-as-investors-storm-exit)
> Oracle (ORCL) stock fell more than 5% Wednesday after the Financial Times reported that private lender Blue Owl Capital (OWL) will not back a $10 billion deal for its next data center The bonds are losing before they could even be printed. Lol
BLUE OWL WILL NOT BACK $10B DEAL FOR ORACLE DATA CENTER - FT Is it finally happening?!
Good quarter overall but I think market liked this more than anything else >Now I want to provide a little more context on our two strategic projects that we announced in the quarter. Firstly, in October, we announced OWL, our next-generation monitoring fleet, to continue our unique broad area monitoring mission currently serviced by the SuperDove fleet, but improving the resolution to one-meter class, lowering the latency, and significantly upgrading the onboard compute to incorporate NVIDIA GPUs. OWL is designed from the ground up to address expanded applications ranging from security to disaster response to rapid change detection. The first tech demo is slated for launch later in calendar year 2026, and we're incredibly excited about the future of our daily monitoring solutions. Secondly, we've recently announced a funded R&D initiative with Google called Project SunCatcher. >Will Marshall >CEO, Chairperson, and Co-Founder >0:11:19 >SunCatcher aims to enable scaled AI computing in space by putting Google's Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, on purpose-designed satellites where they can leverage the energy of the sun and shed excess heat into the natural coldness of space. This was a competitive win for Planet, and our strong track record of building, launching, and operating over 600 satellites to date, together with our collaboration on AI-enabled solutions, represents a competitive edge underlying the depth of our experience and our Agile Aerospace approach. SunCatcher aligns well with our technology development roadmap for Owl, leveraging the same satellite bus and is therefore highly synergistic. As previously announced, we're planning to deploy two prototype satellites in early 2027. We're excited to be working with our long-term partner, Google, to develop this promising new technology.
What is going on with PE firms like APO, KKR, OWL, and BX?
Kicking myself for not getting OWL puts back in March.
Read away. Alot of options trades in the note. 1. Oracle (ORCL) Strategy: Long Puts Expiry: January 2026 Thesis: Credit & Capital Expenditure Risks: Betting on credit deterioration driven by aggressive capital expenditures. Context: Concerns center on the massive infrastructure spend required for AI ambitions, which may pressure free cash flow and credit metrics over the next 12–18 months. 2. Blue Owl (OWL) Strategy: Long Puts Rationale: Tactical Short Dividend Avoidance: Blue Owl pays a high dividend yield (typically ~6-9%). Shorting the stock directly would require paying this dividend to the lender (negative cost of carry). Option Advantage: Buying puts provides downside exposure without the obligation to pay the dividend, improving the risk/reward profile of the bearish bet. 3. Structured Note: "The Santa Claus Shark Fin" Underlying: S&P 500 (SPX) or Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Tenor: 12 Months Downside Protection: 100% Principal Protection (at maturity) Payoff Structure Upside Participation: 150% (1.5x leverage) on positive returns. Barrier (Knock-Out): +15% Condition: If the underlying index rises by more than 15% at any point (or at maturity, depending on specific terms), the participation feature is eliminated. Rebate: 4.00% Fixed Coupon Trigger: Paid only if the barrier is breached (i.e., if the index goes up too much). Scenario Analysis Market Move Outcome Payoff Calculation Moderate Bull (+10%) Participation Active Principal + (10% × 1.5) = 15.0% Return Strong Bull (+20%) Knock-Out Hit Principal + 4.0% Rebate (Upside lost) Bear / Flat (-5%) Principal Protected 0% Return (Principal returned fully) Structural Composition Long: Zero-Coupon Bond (funds the principal protection). Long: 1.5x At-The-Money (ATM) Call Options. Short: 1.5x Out-of-The-Money (OTM) Knock-Out Barrier Options (at the +15% strike). Note: The sale of the barrier option funds the leverage (1.5x) on the ATM call.
For the love of God, get out of chips and into small caps or dividend studs. OWL is the best! And I think I own 10% of them by now. Now if I only knew what they actually do
If you ever feel stupid, just know today somebody is going to invest in AMD and/or NVDA instead of OWL. 🤤 / 🦉
How tf did you make an entire sub out of this. Only stock that matters is OWL. It's on the mat right now, but beloved. CEO has the most perfect egghead with horseshoe hair and offers a dividend that would make even Warren Buffett hard. 🦉
OWL looks fine despite the hysteria going around.
It kind of does though. Those two things are still in the AI trade. Like nuclear is pumping because of the power needs and thought that it will power data centers. It's possible to have certain parts of the AI trade be a bubble while the whole thing isn't. Just like I would also be worried about stuff like OWL that does the financing. I'm not worried about like some of the biggest companies in the world during a lot of Capex.
Ever see the movie Platoon when that guy said, voice quivering, "I got a bad feeling about this man" and then they got lit up by the Viet Cong hours later. Yeah, that's these momentum stocks about to fold, hard, en masse. Get out, drop in the steady dividend snores. PG, VZ, OWL, O, etc. Save yourselves!
The dominoes are falling in this shit hurricane and NVDA is in the eye of it. Crwv -> Nvda OWL -> other scam ai infra startups Owl -> crwv To name a few And nvda has 7 years of crwv support in its plans and books and has stake in crwv.
Just read on which entities are exposed via stake in CRWV, WULF, CIFR, OWL Holy fuck, gfc was a grain of rice compared to this entire fucking sack
Based on previous crashes, it's the credit market where this thing finally breaks. I'm guessing that the first place you'll see the insanity of the AI boom hit corporate bottom lines is in the $$ being laid out for datacenter capacity. For the all hype, very few organizations are moving to use AI at anything like enterprise scale. But tech's big players have gone all-in on building out the capacity to delivery AI infrastructure. A huge portion of the data center capacity built over the past couple of years is sitting dark. Demand just doesn't exist and won't exist for a very long time. I'm keeping a close eye on Blue Owl Capital NYSE: OWL as a potential crash warning. Blue Owl has been doing a lot of data center financing. It's a shady investment group that went public through a SPAC. They've been making huge investments in financing data center buildouts. When companies start reneging on those contracts, they'll be one of the first to get hit. Interestingly, they're way down during a huge year for the markets, despite massive revenue growth.
Demand. SOFR is still a market-set rate. It is generally not supposed to go above IORB for long, because when it does banks can arbitrage them back to parity, so IORB is considered a ceiling. SOFR spikes above IORB when there is high demand for cash or collateral. SOFR has been going above IORB at quarter ends for "window-dressing"---essentially everyone trying to get a good balance sheet snapshot for their 10-Qs. The spike in mid-Sept was to pay corporate taxes. But now? There is no obvious innocuous explanation, so it's probably related to regional banks and private credit: JEF, FITB, ZION, WAL, OWL, KKR, BX, etc.
You know what else is dumping - private credit and regional banks KKR, OWL down, WAL down big
OWL got a deal with Qatar (3 billion dollars)
$DUOL is gonna hit $1000 by the end of the year. THAT BASTARD OWL WOULD NEVER FAIL ME
Solid! I can never figure out OWL. If it's legit, that's a great buy. Why would WM be a stagflation hedge, out of curiosity? Wouldn't higher wage pressures put pressure on their margins, which can only be renegotiated periodically? Just curious as I hadn't really thought of them in that fashion.
Fair enough, I'm looking at buying more WM as a stagflation hedge. Already picked up some OXY when it was in the doldrums too. Bought a bit of OWL as a speculative buy for long term, I think there's opportunity for alternative assets when all these 401ks get opened up to them and they have good management.
Is anyone here invested in Blue Owl Capital (OWL) and can tell me something about it? Trump owns 5-25 million $ worth of this stock [https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/President-Donald-J.-Trump.pdf](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/President-Donald-J.-Trump.pdf) (page 7)
So glad I went hard into OWL last night. There's definitely still room for smaller private equities to grow if y'all want in.
"IT consultancy Gartner predicts that more than 40 percent of agentic AI projects will be cancelled by the end of 2027 due to rising costs, unclear business value, or insufficient risk controls. Using two agent frameworks – OpenHands CodeAct and OWL-Roleplay – the CMU boffins put the following models through their paces and evaluated them based on the task success rates. The results were underwhelming. Gemini-2.5-Pro (30.3 percent) Claude-3.7-Sonnet (26.3 percent) Claude-3.5-Sonnet (24 percent) Gemini-2.0-Flash (11.4 percent) GPT-4o (8.6 percent) o3-mini (4.0 percent) Gemini-1.5-Pro (3.4 percent) Amazon-Nova-Pro-v1 (1.7 percent) Llama-3.1-405b (7.4 percent) Llama-3.3-70b (6.9 percent)" Just thought some ppl need to see this.
...in addition to BRK.A , MKL , & OWL
OWL is where BRK.A & MKL were once. Except, its special is dividends. Those are Infinity Stones for the few real humans here. Our autism knows no bounds!
OWL is where BRK.A & MKL were once. Except, it's special is dividends. Those are real people Infinity Stones
I'm awful at options. Down -$22k over life, mostly done, but still sometimes play. My IRA holdings are GREAT though. (+18% & +20% YTD) Here's one 'not financial advice' picks from both. Traditional, for steady 'bluechip'/steady dividend studs: OWL Roth, for discretionary speculative growth studs: VITL OWL is venture credit with CEO with perfect horseshoe hair. VITL does 'responsible' farming/pricey eggs, but delicious. You're welcome. Remember me! 🤠👍
Why is OWL moving after hours?
Look at OWL How the fuck does 145 share move a stock over 2 dollars!?
Listen to me if you want to make money: Buy REITS they are extremely undervalued and have dividends dates soon COLD DOC OWL VICI DLR
I'm betting the private credit market will crash by September. Puts on APO, ARES and OWL
https://preview.redd.it/6men8ajden1f1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcb6bd9e4d577ac4e67b1f5f487ddb449bea971d HIMS bots, and their masters, hate this guy. It's the OWL CEO. And you know there's no way an egghead like this doesn't know his sh\*t. He's an alternative capital king tailor made for Mark Cuban (who knows he needs this guy) and his Cost Plus Drugs when it goes public. HIMS is on borrowed time with its gas station dick pills and faux fat jabs. As aside, OWL is phenomenal firm, with a better dividend 🦉😃
XLRE / VNQ underperforming vs the market recovery, housing market showing cracks XLF is a different story. not as confident about this anymore as I'm afraid whatever exposure could be covered by the meme-market pumps. IMO if history remains true in the future SOMEBODY has to default and that's why I'm going short on the basket itself, not just individual banks, but I have them too (OWL, ZION, APO, ARES, JPM, BAC, WFC) just in smaller portions and again deep OTM far expiry All in I will lose about $6,000 by 2027 if we don't see some sort of recession by then, but I think the majority of WSB/ Americans are ignoring the warning signs for a **global** recession and are short sighted by the value of american tech / drunk off the bull party
I know just about everything is up today. But really happy with the PE firm sector APO, KKR, OWL, BX, CG etc. Really glad I bought a couple names when the tarrif stuff brought back the FUD of them going bankrupt from either people pulling out money from them or their private credit blowing up on them.
Sold KKR for a loss 2 weeks ago and immediately reinvested equally in APO and OWL for same reasons
I spent a few years learning a TA system called OWL. All my setups come from that framework, with trades being made on a 5min chart. I buy puts/calls on large cap names and will swing shares in low cap names or names that only have an OpEx option. Typically, the size of options position is 1/10th of what I use for shares. I started using an options calculator prior to trades to ensure my cover point was at no more than a 30% loss. At this point I have a typical option price I’m looking for and trade tight, meaning my cover pt is usually half a %pt from my entry. If more I size less. I have absolutely zero predictive ability or directional bias, I just try to read the tape to the best of my ability which certainly creates a sense of humility and keeps me going. I focus on individual charts more than macros but being in tune with the economic calendar and whenever J Powell speaks, anywhere, is key as we saw on Wed.
If you want to do this and harvest losses - you can sell the security and buy something similar. I would not sell to hold cash and try to time the market because you risk losing out if things flip back upward. But for example - I sold my KKR at a loss and reinvested it in APO and OWL which trade in pretty close. Tandem w/ KKR. Locked in a loss to offset some capital gains but don’t lose exposure so I don’t miss out on potential upside. Don’t try to time the market - that’s is why retail investors underperform.