SAP

hardinho

I don't think OP is right but I also don't think you are (but the truth is closer to your side). There is a certain chunk of enterprise apps that will get eaten by this. Support doesn't matter if you can diy it much cheaper and have someone give support for it and other apps. People can't imagine how much money companies pay for certain software. And while I said you Statement is true it'll might not target all of what a company like SAP is selling but parts of their portiofolio. That's why they try to close their apis to customers because they know this will happen

CurrentAirline9065

$FPS GEV $AVGO $NOW $SAP to da moon as y'all say

CurrentAirline9065

$NOW $SAP much better businesses than $CRM and $TEAM to me. Also like $WDAY

CurrentAirline9065

$SAP looks beautiful right now

PastelCollaborator

I trimmed my position a bit after that run-up, felt like the market was pricing in a flawless cloud transition which enterprise software never is. Still holding a core chunk because you're right about the stickiness, nobody gets fired for running their P&L out of SAP.

SirBuysHighALott

Sold Netflix at a loss. Lesson learned. One whole year of profit through SAP, ServiceNow, Microsoft, Amazon and Reddit wiped away because of Netflix. The house won. Again

scramjetmode

MongoDB, Reddit, SAP, Micron, Forgent, Garmin

CMDR_Shepard96

Ofc ADBE/CRM/INTU/SAP/SHOP give up basically their entire pump within an hour

wileyfox91

This would be true for something like SAP, but which big company did integrate Gemini in their workflow that it would cost millions to change the system? Even Microsoft can switch with copilot the LLM behind it

adx

SAP hasn't had QA for 3 decades.

PatrickSebast

Software Engineering is going to take a major blow as an elite silicon valley career over the next decade. AI is going to eat a ton of those jobs. The field won't die though - a lot of mid size businesses can now consider local software development and support as viable - and customer apps generally far exceed the value provided by SaaS 'one size fits all' efforts. This means a lot of those super high paying jobs are gone but new middle management level roles in manufacturing companies at the low six figure rate will become very accessible. It also means companies like SAP and all their weird silo'd options and add-ons are going to face pressure to open up their platforms or come crashing down as the local software guys declare them to be more of a hurdle than a support. Anyone who isn't getting into high customization options for ERP systems should be considered a major risk to your portfolio.

PassableForAWombat

There’s too much money tied up in SAP for full-death, but growth is a big doubt here. There’s still room to fall for them.

Low_Plastic363

Puts on guys who know how to craft proper SAP queries...

DeanXeL

I just had a wonderful example of a C-level suit being happy about an AI-implementation in our company, for a task that used to take 'so many man hours'. Dude, it was a simple automation on a database to pull x amount of parameters for y amount of clients and drop it all in a nice personalized file per client. If it was such a time waster, they could've automated this with a proper SAP query years ago. But no, now AI did it, so we all should use more AI! AI is here to stay! Invest, buy, use, inevitable!

A55BAG

started shorting SAP as the new OpenAi model gains momentum and put a long on IFX and STM (powersemis)

garvens

Can someone tell me is SAP a good buy?

garvens

SAP a good buy?

Weak-Pomegranate-435

Yeah, I bought a lot of SAAS stock in June and July because they were cheap compared to semiconductors. And now they all have ran so much so they have given me some between 50% to 200% returns each. and now most of them are above fair value but only some of them are at their fair value, such as MSFT, CRM, WDAY, ADBE, INTU. Already sold out of PATH, TEAM, NOW, SAP, ZETA, ESTC, ADBE and INTU bcz of their overvaluation or sustainability issues. And only holding onto MSFT, CRM and WDAY. Simply because they are still slightly below their fair value. But none of those stocks even come close to where semiconductors such as AVGO are trading, AVGO is trading at half the value of the cheapest SAAS stock right now. So no SAAS is definitely not the answer. The closest competitor would be the industrials. But I don’t think even that beats the semiconductor valuations right now.

Deshen87

I loaded up on Service Now at 88 dollars. That drop in NOW, CRM and SAP earlier this year was really dumb.

encony

Wait, you tell me enterprises didn't start to vibe code their own SAP??

gmehra

I agree thats wrong, complex companies that make it hard for you to switch with a huge MOAT such as SAP are not going to get killed by vibe coding.

ShootsnLadders

I backed up the truck on $SAP in the $145 range, what a steal.

CMDR_Shepard96

I've got 3x Jan15 230C on CRM.. 2x Oct16 350C on INTU 1x Mar19 200C on SAP 😮‍💨 Was doing pretty well up until yesterday tbh

alteraltissimo

Same goes for SAP, i have no clue who willingly chooses to pay for this stuff

TldrDev

Just to expand on what youre saying for the guy youre replying to: Most industries handle thing like sales, accounting, manufacturing and BOMs, change management, and case management the same way at a macro level. There are industry standard ways those concepts are dealt with. This is what I was calling the "books of knowledge" in my previous comment elsewhere in this thread. Salesforce has developed common patterns into software around an enormous amount of industries. The idea is a company can just buy Salesforce and have almost everything they need, and Salesforce maintains a partnership network for the last mile implementations. Those implementations are, just as an example, integrating with partner systems. For example, if you manufacture and sell to Macy's or Nordstroms, they have an internal ordering system that they expect their manufacturing partners to interface with. You might need to tell them "We have received your order for 200 purses shipped to store 123, and confirm they will be delivered in 100 boxes, shipped out 3 weeks from now. We will include a barcode in the box to confirm delivery.," Which will then kick off this style of automation at Nordstroms such that when they receive the item, they can confirm they received the shipment. If they do not, or they have an issue, it will automatically do a charge back, which on the manufacturing side, creates an accounting case that needs to be managed. At the level at which you need one of these systems, youre typically a well established company with departments and revenue and you start to get bogged down with the logistics of running the company rather than just running the company. 4-400m in revenue is usually where I, the consultant and partner for these types of systems, get involved. Companies also have legal requirements. Food stuffs might follow FDA safe manufacturing guidelines. Public companies need to pass IT audits and SOX compliance. After Enron, laws were passed around approvals and accounting workflows. Companies dont want to have to pay to develop that. They will buy an off the shelf product like netsuite, dynamics, servicenow, SharePoint, SAP, etc, and then slightly customize it for their own partner integrations and legal requirements. The issue with salesforce is that their customer acquisition model was to get Companies into their platform the second they had a few customers and cases, and then would progressively add apps and costs for integrations, where costs very typically are ~50k/mo for larger orgs. Often times companies will have several types of these applications. You might have a company that uses Salesforce, ServiceNow, SharePoint, and other applications running in conjunction with eachother to solve specific workflows in the company, and each of those are 5 figure per month commitments. They get their claws into them, and the system becomes too complex due to the fact you can only ever interact with them with how Salesforce allows you to, that companies can essentially never move off Salesforce, and they are locked in. Salesforce turns the screws on them. The value of salesforce was the knowledge behind all the apps and company workflows that fit the entire industry. That knowledge and integrations are hard to come by. Odoo fully open sourced it. Its better than Salesforce, even. Its been brewing for decades. Now that LLMs are good at this type of software, and all that knowledge has effectively been exported, salesforce's position in the market is seriously diminished. Now, me, the partner, can cut Salesforce out of that 5 figure commitment. I get it instead.

No_Feeling920

You would have to be either insane or insanely huge/rich as a corporation, to actually build and support an entire ERP system in-house. The breadth of areas and problems it captures is immense (from business/customer cases, to inventory, to assets/depreciations, to employee management/hours booking/salaries/social security/income tax/health insurance, invoices, accounting of everything + gazillion corporate/management reports, production blueprints and process tracking, bank account operations, and many more features). And you need to constantly update the system for incoming legislature and regulations changes (accounting/labour/business/international trade/etc. laws). Like, you really don't want to do all this from scratch (green field). That's decades of work in some cases (SAP).

United-Dot-6129

That’d be SAP. I think they’re talking about Hubspot/Zoho etc.

Additional-Job-49

I work at the global scale leading deployments in various ERP technologies. ERP software is one of the strongholds that constantly need human intervention to maintain systems that are stabilizing procedures while showcasing potential short/long term issues and increasing global efficiency. You’d be surprised how many huge companies are purely operational instead of optimizational (made up word but it fits). Most systems aren’t capable of integrating the AI tech these start up firms are offering, and on the flip side, the tech firms aren’t rooted enough in legacy system config to make integration and system continuity easy. I think SAP going to be stable for now due to the above, but I’m waiting for a firm to come up with a product package that utilizes AI to come up with a “standard” framework that will allow companies with legacy custom systems to integrate with newer tech while identifying and eliminating redundant or outdated system builds safely during implementation. It’ll have to be a highly adaptable, yet stable model for a broad range of customers to use, and it’ll require white paper documentation before it blows up, but that’s what I’m looking to invest in, instead of the AI replacements for SAP.

Terrorzwergi

Google, Kraken Robotics, SK Hynix, SAP, Allianz

BuzLightbeerOfBarCmd

What is the risk exactly? Every company develops its own in-house Figma, ServiceNow, SAP, etc.? Or AI-first startups build cheaper/better competitors? The former is obviously absurd, the latter - why can't the existing companies utilise AI as well as the hypothetical startups?

BentoMan

What happened to SAP? Looks like a slide

PathSeeker101

SAP is pumping

KingStyllama

Mainly, yeah, but a lot of the picks and shovels comes from other parts of the world and those companies don't want to miss contracts and are in the race as well against other companies. Also these have their backs covered. Europe won't let companies fail like SAP, ASML, ...

KingStyllama

I see a few things so far, first of all, it's an arms race between continents and companies. Governments are backing up every part of the sector to keep evolving. Nobody wants to fall behind in this race. Indiciduals are using one form or another of LLM in everyday life. & Most of them free at this point. Remember Uber? If all the companies suddenly decide to charge money monthly, this will be a huge income, and this is just from an individal perspective. Next to that you have the companies, Microsoft, SAP, ... are implementing simple, but het complex to program automatisation in everyday workflow. If a client asks a quotation for a product by mail, boom it's documented in your ERP program and sent out without any human interference. Need a code for a Siemens controller. Boom, week worth of programming put out in 10 minutes. Need to find a mistake in a huge complex program code? Boom, AI got your back. We're already on a point the classic administration becomes obsolete. We already are in this irreplaceble state of AI. A lot of companies are already implementing this because nobody wants to fall behind. This is also a recurrent monthly revenue + most of the AI works with tokens for more complex tasks. Next to that, for easier implementation those software companies force you to use cloud based operating for easier implantation. No need for internal servers any more, another monthly income for AI. AI is already replacing the most basic, but complex to hardcode, tasks like finance, administration, logistics, programming, ... Its super easy to implement into your company and super easy to form it to your liking by just "talking" to it. No need for any experience in coding, networking or other complex stuff. This is becoming huge and we're just the start of the peak.

LargeShirt2863

Unfortunately, there is no one-size-fits-all approach. Right solution for your business depends on employee count, geographic footprint, number of countries where payroll needs to be processed, and the complexity of functions such as benefits, time tracking, recruiting, performance management, etc. In general, it's like a Lego set - all these components can be supported by different products that are interconnected. Among the major players, SAP SuccessFactors is biggest competitor. They offer heavy discounts if you are already using their ERP products of Finance, Supply Chain, Inventory etc. For smaller and mid-sized businesses, BambooHR, Gusto, and ADP make more sense. They don't offer the same depth or global capabilities, but they do the job and are cost-effective.

Itchy-Ambition-1171

I set automation workflows in finance using UIPath's RPA... If SAP has even a small issue, whole workflows break requiring me to rewrite them entirely. To be frank, my VBA scripts are more reliable than RPA.

lambchop516

Yeah I mean if you’re an engineer sounds like you’re in a manufacturing environment… should have gone with SAP lol

PathSeeker101

SAP also popped

scramjetmode

SAP is doing ok. A Europoor here :)

SomePolack

Idk feels like the Ellisons are using it as their personal bank and they’ve been doing crazy big layoffs  I’ve seen a lot more movement to SAP and the sentiment seems very negative on ORCL but hey I could be wrong that’s a huge backlog 

kaiserx7

you guys better buy SAP, shit is only surging thanks to IA trash being done

Deshen87

Big rally in software stocks like SAP, Servicenow and Salesforce coming today. Atlassian surged after earnings and further strenghte d the case that critical Enterprise software companies are strenghted not hurt by AI.

Legendary-Lemon

Holy Guacamole. My SAP calls are already ITM

MarginCall94

SAP, play of the year

steady_compounder

I would frame SAP less as an easy-money rebound story and more as a question of how much slow, sticky enterprise quality you want to pay for. The moat is real, but so is the risk that the rerating already pulled forward a lot of the benefit from the cloud transition. If I were buying here, it would be because I trust the durability of the business, not because I expect another quick leg up.

Sensitive-Talk9616

It took my last company several years to just go from excel to Jira. In the software team we already used it. But the rest of the company, HW, even support, still relied on random power point presentations, excel sheets, emails, and teams convos. It was insane. Even with the clear benefits of having some sort of ticketing and product management software, it took some departments over a year to transfer everything to Jira. If tomorrow Atlassian announced a 100% price hike, I don't think management would bat an eye. They had to hire a full-time employee just for a SAP migration. In management's thinking, hiring a "Jira migration expert" or whatever would cost much more than whatever we pay Atlassian. At my current employer, we even have the old legace on-prem Jira instance, which is abused for such things as time and vacation tracking, or CRM. Could they use an HR software, and hubspot for CRM? Sure. But does anyone actually want to do it? No, because the current system "works", so why fix it?

kaiserx7

Just buy some SAP guys, SaaS is back

Wide-Contribution-29

Anyone holding Japanese and European OTC stocks? I have a few and they’re doing a lot better than my memory and other semi stocks. The top four are European defense and SAP has also been on a tear. 

EnSaneZ

Since serviceNOW reports, all software stocks have gone up post ER. NOW, MSFT, SAP, PLTR, SHOP. I expect the same for APP and DDOG but maybe I’m just delusional no idea but I have calls for APP as I had played calls for all the other software stocks

FalseDiamond7930

So they are like SAP but less evil?

Deshen87

Futures are up nicely but Memory and AI names are selling off. Meanwhile software names are surging premarket. The excellent earnings from Service Now, SAP and Microsoft was the starting point of a big surge and Bullmarket in Software stocks I believe.

scramjetmode

I think we are on the verge of something incredibly positive for SAP and Europe’s public cloud deployment.

Deshen87

It was up because there where excellent earnings from Servicenow and SAP. Today was a pullback, I think due to stampede into memory and momentum. The rally will commence and more violently then before.

Bakermonster

I too work at FAANG. Quoting myself: “I’m not saying IBM has the relevancy it had in the 20th century- it doesn’t.” In other words: I see it more as a direct comp to the likes of Oracle or SAP than I do FAANG. At the same time, OSS support, whether directly via something like RedHat or indirectly via IaaS that uses OSS at its core, does have its similarities. Let’s not forget just how much revenue Microsoft makes from LTSBs of Windows Server and SQL Server. Not exactly innovating there, and it’s a significant source of revenue.

Wide-Contribution-29

Look at SaaS stocks down today. Intuit, service now or SAP did great when memory was tanking 

CMDR_Shepard96

ADBE, CRM, SAP & SHOP once again, ruining my port

PathSeeker101

SAP

MythicArc

SAP up almost 20% in less than a week wasn't on my bingo card but I'll take it

A-Money-Lover

CRM SAP Intuit

Agecom3

Yeah I'm not going to lie my entire depot is currently kept alive by SAP

Nuclearmonkee

We are so so far away from allowing financial software or anything beholden to significant regulatory compliance being vibe coded. ServiceNow, SAP and other stuff like that ain't going away. Its all the dumb garbage software shoved into enterprises everywhere that is at risk.

HunterMichael92

You realize the document is completely fabricated pulling together results from different studies into one SAP. The results are real. The patients saw actual clinical improvement and more so than ever before.

theplague1245

Saas stocks are still a screaming buy. Comparing CRM, NOW, SAP to thier ATH's, most are still down over 50% while the business has grown considerably and cashflow / margins are improving.

Ordinary_Pen_5605

Why dont you guys calm down? I am an old, old portfolio manager (starting to work in 1987 on the trading floor). So I have some experience with situations like we have had the last days. That happened to me maybe 20 or 30 times. I retired ten years ago. But still love the markets and invest. I sold my memory stocks during the last eight weeks. Mostly a few days to early, but I kept the cash until today respectively jumped on catastrophies like IBM, SAP and so on. (I will make nice money on it). Today was the day, I started to buyback Micron, SK Hynix and ASML. If I am to early, I will double the position within the next days. SK numbers coming, FED coming, Microsoft coming. A lot of less experienced investors are in panic and sold yesterday and today. Seems to be a good time to buy. By the way, I am not a bull, nor a bear. That changes usually three or four times a year. With a bit more discipline and without that stupid "all-in" chatter you can build up a nice portfolio. On the long run. Not within some weeks or months. That is about impossible. Best Regards from an Europoor, who actually isn´t that poor.

Schmidisl_

SAP, Netflix and MSFT

Schmidisl_

SAP, Netflix and MSFT

Legendary-Lemon

SAP is cooking

MarginCall94

Oracle, do it like SAP!!!

jeffjeffitoldyoujeff

I could vibe code SAP in about a week. 

SirBuysHighALott

I get that semis are down and people are panicking. But why there’s no excitement because software is going to make a come back? SAP NOW Salesforce all pumped since last week

PathSeeker101

SAP To the moon

CMDR_Shepard96

Has the market finally realised that SAP, Adobe, Salesforce and Shopify aren't going out of business?

Boring_Ad7277

SAP up 18% in 3 days after earnings NOW up 10% in 2 days after earnings. MSFT will finally push up again. Software will be back.

PoliticsIsDepressing

SAP cannot be replaced and if proposed will mostly be laughed at in most companies. They are implemented AI, but due to being an ERP tool have to do it strategically.

MarginCall94

SAP !!!

ArduousHamper

SAP’s software itself is incredibly non-user friendly and ugly looking. So calls or something.

One_Hope_9573

therte is no company in the world who can replace SAP now. I think SAP can only be damaged from inside thru incompetent management

WillSwimWithToasters

My company uses SAP. It’s a software for ancient companies. No one new is using this dogshit. I practically feel like I have a degree in SAP. I hate this shit.

ShootsnLadders

$IGV has everything but $SAP since it’s North American only.

Virtual_Secretary_98

Guys what is the best SaaS ETF? I want it to have NOW, CRM, SAP, TEAM etc.

Virtual_Secretary_98

Guys what is the best SaaS ETF? I want it to have NOW, CRM, SAP, TEAM etc.

Virtual_Secretary_98

Guys what is the best SaaS ETF? I want it to have NOW, CRM, SAP, TEAM etc.

steady_compounder

The interesting part is the stock being up despite softer profit guidance. The market is probably rewarding the cloud mix shift more than the near-term margin wobble. For SAP the bigger question is whether cloud growth stays strong enough that the quality of revenue keeps improving from here.

goobervision

Deepmind, ARM, ​Infineon, SAP, Amadeus, Dassault, Spotify, Mistral and many more.

demaraje

Sure, but what is the competition? I assume you're talking about SAP. Are there any vibecoded SAP alternatives? AI doesn't provide an alternative

DoubleFamous5751

SAP getting assassinated on earnings and sparking WW3 is the only story arc I’m here for https://preview.redd.it/gypzdl38nafh1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c181a6606b0cc8addfcf022790b62aefcccf1c6

tachyonvelocity

Basically zero comments by retail. No retail interest = high future return, buy more SAP

ok_read702

SAP is getting hammered because investors are expecting it to lose more and more ground to AI alternatives.

teddy3143

Welcome to business my uneducated friend, you are thinking of hardware alone. SAP isn't exactly unknown to the more employed US individuals.

ShootsnLadders

It’s my largest bet out of the SaaS massacre, my company just migrated to SAP cloud and expanded our subscription. Can’t help but think it’s undervalued here, even after the earnings bump.

zion-messenger

Dude.... you are missing the point. All your calculations are based on users. Forget about it! Humans using AI is not the point, it is not the bulk on AI consumption. Do you think a user on SAP responsible for procurement , using AI is that relevant? Now eliminate most of Procurement workers, all personal that checks accounting, validate sales orders etc..... those will all be replaced by Automations with Agents. it will be AI Agents generating demand to other AI Agents. it is exponentially more than your estimates.

ashparkway

Yes I can. The statement might sound hyperbole, but the point I'm trying to make is very real truth about enterprise IT. Oracle is the foundation backbone for majority of the worlds most critical, large-scale systems. It doesn't literally mean 100% of all companies run on Oracle - there're tons of startups, mid-cap business and tech companies that run entirely on opensource - but when you look at, for example, fortune 500, global banks, healthcare, telecom and gov't agencies, Oracle has a massive footprint. The point I'm trying to highlight: 1. For financial services, telecom and gov't entities Oracle was the gold standard for decades. 2. And saying "everyone runs on oracle" references how hard it is to leave, and the cost of switching is expensive, risky and labor-intensive. 3. Historically, Oracle is pretty much the enterprise database for almost all companies, virtually non-negotiable until the 2010's. 4. The present: Oracle remains dominant but the landscape has broadened to include others like MSFT, IBM, SAP, Postgre, Cloud-Natives...etc. So while my statement exaggerates by saying every single company runs on Oracle, it accurately reflects just how central Oracle is to the global economy's back-end infrastructure.

CMDR_Shepard96

Feels like this has been my port all year. MSFT, GOOGL, META, ADBE, CRM, INTU, SAP, SHOP. I picked ALL the winners at the exact right time (not)

noobc4k3

Undervalued, been slowly buying. SAP is a massive cash cow vendor locked all over the world, they ain't going anywhere anytime soon and gen AI is not really a threat to their business model imo.

Purple_Bearkat

The CIO is certainly not replacing SAP with vibe coded slop.

RioAncho

"imagine what a senior scrum team of 5-6 engineers at a large enterprise organization can do" - go insane at the thought of having to implement every single segment of the organization and then connect all of it together lol.... Like it or not it's ludicrous and insane that you think that a ERP for large organization that might span multiple locations/countries/continents can be implemented and maintained by 5-6 engineers + Claudio, and i'm saying this having worked with SAP for 7 years and trust me it can drive u insane but there's a reason they all use it

PurpleFilth

Bro listen to yourself he built a probably shitty app for a 10 person factory, i suppose that means SAP will be out of business soon lmao.

CMDR_Shepard96

Literally every position I've bought this year has shat itself to zero. MSFT, GOOGL, AEM, CRM, NOW, SAP, SHOP, SPCX (I'm an idiot). Not one good choice.

barebackguy7

Is that your first RFP? Are you the client evaluating? Do you already have SAP? There is way too much unknown here to make any sort of broad statement.

barebackguy7

SAP is too expensive? SAP throws their asset management system in to their ERP clients. If anything Maximo is expensive, and it is indeed expensive. But clients buy it anyway. Sorry your experience has been awful but that’s not the overwhelming sentiment toward Maximo