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Paradise for Novavax according to Politico
Quick and dirty way to burn some shorts and deliver them an unhappy new year
$NVAX current price $159 (100%+ ROI upside) buying opportunity in the next 2 days. Short squeeze coming.
Bullish Thesis on Novavax and Conspiracy Theory Behind Current Share Price
COVAVAX as the long-awaited FAILURE. Buy Puts Novavax, read why.
SII-this is the uranium way, low float/volume they are buying all the u308
Nvax DD (7x potential, 10-15 billion in revenue in 2022, low float)
NVAX DD (Low Float, 7x price potential, revenue for 2023 10-15 billion)
Mentions
Wow, what a fantastic post! I agree with everything he said. We should be taught about investing in first grade. It relates to self control. Also, you don't to be a trader or an invest and forget guy. You can give the market however much time and attention you want and invest accordingly risk-wise. Also, metals and mining have always been valuable. I like SII Sprott Inc. They have many great etfs but you can just buy stock in the company and be astride the mining world. Good luck out there.
Still SII, so I don't have to research miners and metals and 2x etfs of the roaring memory stocks.
Hycroft again after getting out in top. They're sitting on a pile of money and so am I. Also Sprott Inc, SII.
10,000 not so heavy. Half of that in ASTS, SII, and a few others. Do you feel like any of these are good investments and if not what do you see in them that so many other large groups and individuals miss? What's a stock that you feel is a better guarantee of earnings, if you know any?
You can own PSLV parent co SII, which earns more fees as people pile into various metals/mining etfs. Otherwise, I think PSLV is a fine choice as options go.
SII Is 39% ytd. I think it had excellent fullmatket coverage. From metals to miners to physical.
Not saying buy it today, because it's rallied 50% this year... SII- sprott. They have funds for all precious metals, as well as copper and uranium. They also hold physical assets. Almost like a royalty play.
It's beyond just gold imo - look at all the metals/mining etfs. SETM +132% in the last year. Copper names up huge. Metals fund manager SII +200% in the last year. Real assets are mooning.
This company is great. I have a few of their etfs and I'm about to just start investing in SII Sprott Inc stock because they cover all metals and minerals far and wide with a brilliant, successful financial/mining genius running the place. Just wish I had more rubles to throw at his feet :(.
The market may be waiting for confirmation that higher silver/gold prices are hear to stay before miners catch up. If you already have conviction that they are, it might be easier to invest in miners at this point. I've had conviction that gold miners were undervalued and gold was going higher for over a year. Enough conviction to start investing in leveraged EFTs (NUGT/GDXU). These ETFs are volatile and not designed to be held long term, but my theory was any losses from decay would be more than offset by gains. It's worked out so far. I paid less attention to silver and only got into it mid last year. I've used AGQ (2x futures) to boost returns initially and currently have positions in PSLV, AG, and LEAPs in AG, HL, CDE and SILJ. Copper companies that generate silver as a byproduct may be worth a look as well. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of mining something else (e.g. lead, zinc, gold, copper). Copper prices are not doing too bad either right now. Another way to play this is Sprott (SII). As more money pours into commodity related funds their AUM will increase. I added that a month ago and it's up 33%. If you think other people will be investing in commodities that's a way to gain exposure without the volatility of going into metals themselves or miners. (I've read and relied heavily on research reports from [gorozen.com](http://gorozen.com) for the last five years. They identified very early on topics that I've been seeing come up on Youtube commentators more recently including precious metals/miners prices, financial system reset, and end of the carry trade)
Yep, have a small position in SII. Sprott Resources was a small public/private vehicle many years ago that never caught on/did particularly well and eventually was reverse merged into something else, then eventually bought. I think it was repurposed into a lending vehicle at some point along the way, as well. FRMO is where it was 20 years ago and down 50% in the last 5. Could have done a lot better (+90%) in their flagship mutual fund which doesn't have the same holdings but certainly does share similarities (TPL/bitcoin emphasis.) The holding company hasn't done well in the last 5 years but it feels like what has gone right in FRMO's holdings in the last 5 years hasn't registered at all. At some point should just wind it down or sweep it under the holdco rug.
Sprott (SII) has actually had a great run. It's a wonderful play on commodities! I'm familiar with FRMO. Agree that it's a bit messy. Sort of an HK hodgepodge fun.
"This time I’m focusing on growth stocks that have a shot at outperforming the S&P" Optimally, a list to do this would include at least some things that are the "next" things, not a list of largely the same things you see on many Reddit lists today. GOOG doing well and AMZN probably near a bounce, but the default to Mag 7 as the tech exposure for an increasing amount of lists on here feels like there wasn't an attempt to research beyond the most obvious household names. I wouldn't own RIVN even though I think it probably is one of one or two EV names out of all the EV garbage that went public in 2020/21 that lasts. With few exceptions the automobile industry is not a good investment. RIVN will probably never get back to the post-IPO high. People still seem to treat the EV theme as if its 2020/21 when the market is telling you that it's not. Just as charging co CHPT, down about 70% in the last year and -99% from the peak. "PAAS" How about SII on a pullback? Rather than one mining company, the largest nat resource financial company. If more people pile into their physical and stock ETFs (as for the latter, SETM certainly has done well) and AUM goes up, more fees. A broader play on silver/gold/resources than one mine. Good luck and hope you do well, but I would refine the list some.
Yeah, they're one of the better miners. You still get mine risk. Look what happened to FCX, one of their biggest copper mines just went offline. Miners also potentially have to deal with rising costs for labor, fuel, vehicles, etc. That's not to say the miners, even barrick, won't out perform. Heck, I have a junior gold miner up 400% this year. SII is just a different risk profile.
There is probably more torque to the upside in a miner, but a lot more risk as well. You have to worry about day to day operating risk as well as cost inflation. Junior miners offer even more upside, but even riskier. SII and barrick have performed basically equally over the last year. Also, SII gets you copper, uranium, and silver.
It still amazes me how little attention SII gets. They half physical assets, and operate funds in gold, silver, copper, uranium...and more. Basically the ultimate metals play, but cheaper than a royalty streamer and no operating risk like miners. Just a beast.
It still amazes me how little discussion some names get. SII is a beast with huge margins. It has levered exposure to gold, uranium, metals, and ETF flows. And never gets talked about.
Great episode of [value hive](https://open.spotify.com/episode/34tgJgOeUduQGrnWS6HIOE?si=MUFAxZQER3uX8Yn2WKTXBA) with Kuppy as the guest. Discussion went all over including emerging markets, materials, and macro. They talked about sprott (SII) as one of the best plays on materials, which I'm totally on board with. This might be one of my biggest regrets on not buying when I looked at it at $40, but it's still not that expensive for what it is. High priority on a pullback. Value hive generates some great ideas. This year I heard NBIS pitched around $20, IDR at $10, and AMTM at $17. Really solid show.
Gotcha. Thanks. I've seen claims that SII makes no sense and won't happen because it's virtually the same thing as SI and therefore a pointless move. Always thought that was an rather wesk rebuttal but don't really understand the classifications well enough to speak otherwise.
I sold a reasonable portion of etfs at 600 yesterday. Absolutely reasonable to expect a bounce from that top, and with volatility of whatever is in this bill, it’s a good idea. I did buy SII, hold GLD and took profits on some recent gainers. No fomo here. Market is showing cracks, if I’m wrong, I have cash to invest in high potential equities when I find out what the market looks like, and when a more obvious trajectory is forming.
Anyone own/look into SII (Sprott)? They run a lot of commodity funds backed by physical assets (uranium trust has been on a tear).
That's interesting. I know nothing about NVCR, but IBRX has been on my watchlist for a while. I've been following the saga of whether Anktiva sales will increase significantly since the FDA has approved it in combination with BCG[ for treating BCG-](https://ir.immunitybio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/immunitybio-announces-fda-approval-anktivar-first-class-il-15)unresponsive NIMBC. I've been held back by a few headwinds - the current shortage of BGC - hopefully to be addressed by SII - (the Serum Institute of India), the fact that IBRX could run out of money in a couple of quarters and the fairly significant short interest (I try not to pay too much attention to short interest, but sometimes you can't help but take a look). How confident are you that IBRX will come out on top of these, before they run out of cash? Do you think they'll have to dilute their shares?
The deal was negotiated for NVX-CoV2373(1 dose and done). The SII/NVAX cooped one was SII-NVX-CoV2373(2 doses per person). Could just be a random shortening but when it comes to such technical things I find the names are not synonymous so it makes me think its specifically for the newer vaccine. Again idk terribly much here I'm just debating a small position on the off chance that this thing jumps (I stress) a little. 4 or 5x jump instead of the crazy near 50x it has had in the past.
In order for NVAX to make any sense from an investment standpoint, you need to know whether the vaccines that got approval are from their Maryland production line or if its from their Serum Institute of India (SII) deal. It matters because the profit margins are VERY different. Previously NVAX only had approval for the SII produced vaccines and thus even when they got their orders they weren't making much money due to payments to SII. Good luck op.
https://youtube.com/shorts/iRVAznX3SII?si=-gjNVIW9huDkgHwa
NVAX. Flu/covid combo preliminary data released at world vaccine conference made it rise a lot last week even though shorts were trying to hold it down. Full data will be presented on 16th April in Copenhagen and on 17th booster on top of Sinopharm presentation. India cases are increasing rapidly and NVAX covovax SII is likely one of the 2 manufacturers along with Bharat that will get orders if they start a booster campaign India is now neck and neck with China for worlds largest population. Malaria phase 3 is still coming too. At one point up 9% in pre market already and rising steady all last week. I was early on this but it looks like it's happening.
NVAX short borrow rate 47.4%.... there was an emergency meeting in India today too as the cases are going through the roof and it's only NVAX/SII and Bharat Biotech that are approved if they do a booster campaign. Coiled spring.
Sigh. No. SVB was highly allocated to one sector, tech. Tech does poorly in high IR environments. SVB was also poorly levered with 10 year treasuries that were declining with the higher IR environment. Then, a VC caused a panic since most startups that can't raise capital right now keep their deposits in SVB. So, he told people to withdraw their money. This is also ignoring the roll back of Dodd-Frank that would have classified SVB as a SII where, none of this would have happened to begin with. So, yeah, people know why it shit the bed.
Look at the costs to borrow. Very similar to GME and AMC. I've been very early in this and it's taken a pounding but they look up R21 Malaria Matrix M too. They are supplying the adjuvant for that it's phase 3 and the WHO have already committed to 200m doses per year minimum. It's Oxford, SII and NVAX. Interestingly in the recent 10 K from NVAX they will not only get a royalty on the 200m doses. They have the exclusive rights to sell in high income countries for travellers. Then you have nanoflu and they are miles in front of the flu/covid combo. The fails to deliver are over 1m shares some days this hasn't just been shorted to oblivion I'm sure it's been naked shorted. Check who has a huge short position you guessed it Citadel amongst others.
I tend to go along with Buffet on that. I tend to invest in things I can get my mind wrapped around. I used to use Investors Business Daily, and I would rule out companies on the list if they were in a business I felt was fickle, volatile, or didn't "make something" (take inputs and make outputs). I've gotten a bit better with this as I have learned certain industries (including Restaurants). I had a professor once, who had something he called the "SII". The SII stood for "shitty industry index". He would rule them out altogether, or, he would demand a higher rate of return for investing in them because of that, or the risks(s). I recently came across a guy, who was holding his entire portfolio in Real Estate - because he "knew" and "felt comfortable" with Real Estate. I had another woman who had all of her stock in Big Orange and I had to explain to her, that most executives, when they get stock grants or exercise options, sell off at least *some* of the stock so they can diversify the risk of holding all of that equity in a single symbol (there are requirements for them to hold certain amounts when you get to those levels).
People are sleeping on NVAX. SI is up to around 38% now. Covovax has just been approved in India for this round of boosters and is their preference. The orders from India should be enormous. Adar Poonawalla from SII also speaking with the Chinese about NVAX/Covovax and states it's the best out there. Malaria vaccine is coming. Flu/Covid hybrid is in phase 2 testing now. A load of negative info coming out now about mRNA vaccines. This is a steal at this price IMO. New CEO coming in too. This is primed to pop.
SI is up to around 38% now. Covovax has just been approved in India for this round of boosters and is their preference. The orders from India could be enormous. Adar Poonawalla from SII also speaking with the Chinese about NVAX/Covovax and states it's the best out there. Malaria vaccine is coming. Flu/Covid hybrid is in phase 2 testing now. A load of negative info coming out now about mRNA vaccines. This is a steal at this price IMO
Massively undervalued stock. FDA and CDC have both identified a link to stroke with PFE. Both PFE and MRNA have said their endemic price will be 130 USD per shot. If I owned one of the pharmacies, why pay enormous energy bills for deep freeze when you could just stick NVAX in a normal refrigerator. Lower emissions, too. The sooner it turns from government purchasing to private then its advantage Novavax. Phase 3 R21 Matrix M Malaria Jenner NVAX SII JV results have leaked already and the WHO will be buying 200m doses per year of that. Flu will come as will the Flu/covid hybrid, which has started phase 2 in Australia. Covid will end up like flu a yearly booster market for the elderly and people with other conditions or obese. A market cap of 1bn with over 1bn in cash on hand is ridiculous. The shorts have pigged out. I suspect that they have shorted on margin, and their profits on NVAX are offsetting losses on their long positions. It's the only thing that makes sense to me as to why they wouldn't cover. They have to by 23.47m shares at some point and I really don't know where they will get them from but they are crafty so who knows I still think the stock by itself is Massively undervalued. The short interest reeks of Citadel being involved somewhere or one of their stooges.
I get it. They were way over in thr heads. They tried so many avenues to scale up the production. If SII wasn't in the picture they might have gone bankrupt. They recently had a CEO change. He comes with a lot of experience. But again wall street favored moderna from the beginning. Fda and politicians r all moderna. Even after the new reports that said moderna didnt have enough data for boosters. This part I don't understand how come novavax had to go through rigorous testing compared to mrna. I guess rules didn't apply to big biotech. I still believe through marketing and management change they can do a lot better.
I'm holding 6000. It's massively undervalued, IMO. I may add some more in the next week or so. My Spidey senses are tingling, and the Fauci Twitter files might be pretty damning for mRNA vaccines. Regardless, R21 Matrix M Malaria will change them from a covid company to a bonafide Pharma, and that is coming. It's passed phase 3, and the WHO will order 200m doses a year of that. Oxford, NVAX, and SII will be a good team for that. Then, you have phase 2 of the Covid Flu hybrid. That's started in Australia and NZ. Imagine if they had the only covid flu vaccine in the world. They wouldn't be able to produce enough. They have managed to break through and are so far in front that they could practically walk home for the touchdown. I'm not saying they won't mess it up, but think how attractive they are to a BP at the moment with those products. A buyout or a big order could come at any time.
Tax loss harvesting is probably exasperating problems at the moment. It's unlikely we will either get the exact bottom or top of the SP to enter or exit, but as long as we are close enough, then that's enough to make plenty. One potential catalyst is in the Q3 report NVAX committed to releasing Phase 3 data for R21 Matrix M Malaria by the end of 22. They have 2 days left, so unless they miss the deadline, then they should release this. We know from the Economic Times on their article on SII that it passed phase 3 and should enter production in 2023 for 200m doses to the WHO. After Share issuance and subsequent increase of the float SI appears a few per cent less, but it's actually 1m shares more.
Regarding the Malaria vaccine R21 Matrix M candidate. There was a press on this a couple of weeks ago that the phase 3 study was passed and that it's expected to enter production next year. Jenner Institute and NVAX (Matrix M) are supplying the tech, and SII has committed to manufacture the 200m doses required by the WHO annually. https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.economictimes.com/news/new-updates/oxford-serum-institute-of-india-new-anti-malaria-vaccine-trial-over-authorization-next-year/amp_articleshow/96080054.cms I suspect we will see a press release from NVAX of their own prior to year end. If you check on their investor hub and check their Q3 earnings, then you can clearly see that the Malaria vaccine was in Phase 3, and the results were to be released by the end of Q4. The only reason I don't think they have yet was the Convertible note capital raise and stock sale. Perhaps they were limited legally in what they could say prior to those being fully subscribed which they are now so good news should be on its way. https://ir.novavax.com/ Merry Christmas Everyone!
R21 Matrix M Malaria vaccine completed phase 3 trials this week. NVAX owns the patent for Matrix M. Oxford Jenner Institute and SII have partnered on it with Matrix M as the adjuvant. This will be the malaria vaccine used and should be 100s of millions of doses per year. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/oxford-serum-initiative-anti-malaria-vaccine-s-phase-3-trials-conclude-101670295509486-amp.html
Yes, I was shocked by the convertible debt offering today, too. That was garbage news. The malaria vaccine looks great, and hundreds of millions are affected by it per year, so the potential market is huge. The WHO and all those kinds of organisations will be behind it so financially it will have plenty of backing, Oxford and SII have the capacity to bring it to fruition and it gives NVAX Matrix M its day in the sun as an Adjuvant. 80% efficacy and 2 year duration knocks the GSK one out of the park so the long time licensing potential for Matrix M is massive. They could partner with Big Pharmas on all kinds of new vaccines with that. Nothing has changed for me with the convertible debt offering today. It was just unnecessary they would have been better off bringing in a JV partner on Nanoflu and raised money that way/leveraged a Big Pharmas contact in the FDA, etc. Yes they may have to give up half. But it's hardly hurt BNTX with their partnership with PFE
R21-Matrix M is a Malaria vaccine that passed phase 2 already and showed an efficacy of 80% with a duration of 2 years. It's a JV with Oxford University, SII and NVAX supplying their patented Matrix M Adjuvant. There is a huge need for a Malaria vaccine and the only one that came close from GSK had way too low efficacy
NVAX is at 30.12% SI with 1.3bn cash, assets totalling 2.6bn, yet a market cap of only 1.36bn. Aside from their Covid Vax, their Nanoflu phase 3 data has been submitted via clinical trials, and as per all, the data was superior to the most popular flu vax by Sanofi. Their Matrix M is also being used in phase 3 Oxford SII Malaria vax, which looks like a game changer, too. The shorts are pigging out, and all kinds of manipulation is happening. Over a third of the stock trades in dark pool every day. mRNA vaccine every 2 months isn't a viable strategy.... NVAX last long they just don't seem to be donating correctly to get the same treatment as the 2 mRNA's
NVAX is at 30.12% SI with 1.3bn cash, assets totalling 2.6bn, yet a market cap of only 1.36bn. Aside from their Covid Vax, their Nanoflu phase 3 data has been submitted via clinical trials, and as per all, the data was superior to the most popular flu vax by Sanofi. Their Matrix M is also being used in phase 3 Oxford SII Malaria vax, which looks like a game changer, too. The shorts are pigging out, and all kinds of manipulation is happening. Over a third of the stock trades in dark pool every day.
NVAX is at 30.12% SI with 1.3bn cash assets totalling 2.6bn yet a market cap of only 1.36bn. Aside from their Covid Vax, their Nanoflu phase 3 data has been submitted via clinical trials, and as per all, the data was superior to the most popular flu vax by Sanofi. Their Matrix M is also being used in phase 3 Oxford SII Malaria vax, which looks like a game changer, too. The shorts are pigging out, and all kinds of manipulation is happening. Over a third of the stock trades in dark pool every day.
I am a bot. You submitted a picture of a banned ticker, SII. The market cap of SII is **0** This check will fire if you included unnecessary pictures that have bad keywords/phrases. Repost with the useless pictures omitted if you did that.
Their cash and assets are above their market cap now so it's literally at asset stripping price. People in the EU saying their boosters are from the Czech Republic facility which is 100% theirs so no need to split revenue in half with SII. No financial advice or anything but just advise anyone to check their financials as part of DD as I think the shorts are about to cover. If their was a buyout then would be stuck.
PSLV. And if you want to own actual companies, AUY, AMRK, and SII.
What an entry point this week, stock is oversold setting up short term double. \-Thailand Just granted EUA, momentum coming in April: \-Combo trial data coming out in April 🦠 \-India approval for 7-11 & expanded orders 🇮🇳 April \-EMA adolescent approval 🇪🇺 \-FDA 🇺🇸 Soon (but not even factor into analysts targets) \-Japan BLA approval 🇯🇵 4/18 + Takeda ramps up manufacturing and shipping, real Pro \-possible Switzerland approval 🇨🇭 \- Combo SII, Takeda, BK, + momentum builds in production and shipping AND MORE IMPORATNTLY - The most positive news is under the radar - SII CEO reported they have 100M doses stockpiled. Novavax India distribution will start in 10-14 days. Shipping to COVAX to start soon. Seems they have figured out how to make it at scale.... (SII has stopped making Astra to focus on Novavax)
This guy is sharp and really plugged in with what is going on with mfg at SII - https://www.yahoo.com/now/novavax-stock-could-hit-315-230525135.html
**Conclusion: Strong buy, highly undervalued** The vaccine is selling for $20 to $21 to high-income countries, $3 to $6 to low-income countries and in the middle for middle-income countries. I think the average will be $11 to $12. But to be somewhat conservative, let's use $10. From there, I think pretty much all back-of-the-envelope calculations and complex valuation models that are reasonable result in a share price that's far higher than now. For example, 2.5 billion doses at $10 would be $25B in revenues. At a 60% margin, this would be $15B in 2022 earnings. At a 50% margin, it would be $12.5B in earnings. At a 40% margin, $10B in earnings. If you cap EU doses at 50 million and estimate only 150 million for India and 100 million for the other countries, that plus the APA sales would be 2 billion doses. That times $10 is $20B in revenues. At a 60% margin, it would be $12B in 2022 earnings. At a 50% margin, $10B in earnings. At a 40% margin, $8B in earnings. Vaccine sales already increased its cash position from $100M in early 2020 to about $2B now. Its valuation is now only $10.9B. So its cash at the end of 2022 should be close to the current market cap. You also need to factor in future Covid sales, Nanoflu sales and likely sales of its combination Covid-flu vaccine and its RSV vaccines. Also adjuvant revenues from the malaria vaccine that's launching in 1 1/2 years. The 1 billion extra doses per year by SII are being bought on a contracted fee per dose basis, so Novavax keeps 100% of the profits. Even on the licensed doses, Novavax gets 50% of the profits with pretty much no expense or effort. In the numbers above, for simplicity sake I'm using the price countries are paying, then showing different levels of average profit margins for your consideration. Novavax is keeping all profits on all sales to high-income countries except Japan and Korea. At a production cost of $2 to $4 depending on the location, and a sale price of $20.5, Novavax makes $16.5 to $18.5 per dose on those sales, with the exception of the US, which is paying $17.6 per dose. That's a gross profit margin of 80% to 90%. That covers a lot of expenses and gives a strong net margin. Therefore, I think a net margin of 50% is reasonable, and my base case is them making $12.5B in earnings on sales of 2.5 billion doses at an average price of $10. If margins come in 5% to 10% lower than 50%, I think this could be offset by the average selling price possibly coming in 5% to 10% higher than $10, with the same total earnings. The previously strongest flu vaccine, Fluzone, had $2.9B in flu revenues in 2020. As the strongest flu vaccine and with SII producing it at low cost and selling it worldwide, I forecast Nanoflu will have a third of the $9.5B 2027 market, which is $3.17B. Biotechs on average trade at a price to sales multiple of about 8. So Novavax's valuation on Nanoflu alone could be about $25.4B, more than double its current valuation. The cash from 2022 Covid earnings could add another $8B to $15B in valuation. Add in the value of future Covid sales. Related, a multivalent vaccine is increasingly likely to be needed, and I think Novavax would be the leader there because its technology is ideally suited for it. Add some value for likely future RSV sales. I'm not even going to add all of the above up because the number would be so high it would look incredible. For now, I will simply maintain my price target of $442 because that's a high enough return for a very bullish outlook. Likewise, if you apply the same 2022 sales or earnings multiples to Novavax as Moderna or BionTech have, the share price would be between 300% and 800% higher than now. Even if you add in no Covid sales past 2022, the Novavax valuation should be higher than now based on the cash they'll have by late December and their pipeline that is close to commercializing Nanoflu. Therefore, Novavax's large number of APAs plus pipeline gives it an excellent safety net. As investors start to figure that out, and as they realize that production is far more on track than they think, I think the stock price will go dramatically higher. I recommend being very overweight now so you can take some profits as it goes higher.
**10 advantages of Novavax's vaccine should lead to additional orders** As of now, no countries in Latin America, the Caribbean or Middle East have placed orders. Many Asian countries also have not. When estimating the size of orders from India and other countries, we should consider the many advantages of the Novavax vaccine including: 1) The highest efficacy against the original strain: 96.4% to 100%; 2) Strong cross-protection, resulting in the highest efficacy against variants: 90% to 93%; 3) The highest level of neutralizing antibodies, which is a sizable factor in how many months a vaccine's protection lasts. 4) Low rates of temporary side effects; 5) Milder side effects; 6) No safety problems. The RNA vaccines have rates of myocarditis that are far above average levels in people under 30. The adeno vaccines have two types of blood clots, anaphylaxis, hypersensitivity and Guillain Barre Syndrome. 7) Doesn't require frozen transport or frozen storage; 8) Very easy to administer. No mixing by pharmacists is needed. 9) Far lower cost to produce than RNA vaccines. 10) It uses a tried-and-true traditional approach that is more appealing to the vaccine-hesitant. Some countries are not allowing people under 30 to receive RNA vaccines due to the heart risk. Experts in other countries are recommending that people under 30 not use RNA for the same reason. Moreover, 50% of the world is less than 30 years old. So for half of the market, RNA vaccines are not a good approach when an equally effective protein vaccine is available without that problem. Vaccines that require cold-chain storage including Sputnik and RNA vaccines like the vaccine by Pfizer are a poor fit for developing countries. For this reason, many hospitals in India have cancelled their orders for Sputnik. Clinics and doctor's offices are even less able to do cold storage. RNA vaccines are also not cost-competitive in low and middle-income countries (LIMCs), where SII can produce traditional vaccines like Novavax for far less. Also, SII has long-term pre-existing sales and distribution relationships with most of the LIMCs. Orders for AstraZeneca have dried up due to its subpar efficacy, weak durability and blood clotting. I think the same will occur to the Chinese vaccines due to their weak efficacy and durability. Therefore, I expect that some middle-income countries that have used AstraZeneca and Chinese vaccines so far will place orders in the coming months. I also expect many of the high-income countries that have not yet placed Novavax orders (such as the oil-producing Arab states) to place orders. Good candidates are Brazil, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, Mexico, Thailand, Pakistan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt). The combined population of those countries is 1.18 billion. I forecast they and other countries will place orders that total about 400 million doses. If only the countries above were to order 400 million, it would vaccinate 200 million people, or 17% of their people. Of course, doses will probably be used for a combination of primary vaccinations and boosters. Many will be getting some Novavax doses via Covax, but those are split among 160 countries, so each country will get only a limited amount. If new countries order 400 million, India orders the same and the EU gets 100 million, the total would be 2.58 billion. My total estimate is a little below that at 2.5 billion. Between SII making 2 billion, and Novavax's 8 other antigen factories, I think they'll be able to make much more than 2.5 billion in 2022. Plus I expect they made at least 300 million last year. If you want to revise my estimate of 2.5 billion doses in sales, you can take the 1.7 billion of 2022 APA doses, and do estimates for: a) India b) EU doses above the minimum; and c) all new countries.
**Monster 2022 revenues** Most countries in the world accept authorizations by any one of the 4 major drug agencies: the EU, the UK or the WHO. Novavax has already received it from the WHO and the EU, so I expect the majority of other countries to do the same soon. India's EUA for its 1.3 billion people means 30% of the world is already directly authorized for it. Another 36% have access through the WHO's EUL. A full breakdown is here. India's recent approval for SII to ship large amounts of doses to Australia and New Zealand indicates they will also give EUA soon. Some bears and short-sellers claim the ability of Novavax to sell doses is a major risk. But as the chart below shows, there are already orders for 2.07 billion doses. 100 million of the EU order would be for 2023 and about 10 to 20 million doses probably shipped to Indonesia last year, so the total for 2022 is about 1.95 billion doses. About 1.7 billion of these are Advance Purchase Agreements (APAs) between buyers and Novavax or its partners. These usually can't be cancelled except in highly unusual situations such as cases of fraud, acts of God or material breach of contract. For the latter, usually the buyer must give the seller written notice of the breach, and the seller has 30 days to remedy it. Some APAs have a maximum delivery date, but the majority do not. For those that do, based on when Novavax signed its APAs, I think it will be able to meet those, plus countries can agree to extend them. Also, most APAs include significant up-front payments to go towards at-risk manufacturing. Even if a vaccine is never approved, the company only has to refund money it hasn't yet spent. I will delve into APAs more deeply in the future, including with links to APAs. The only large order listed below that's not an APA is India. But India has already given EUA to Novavax, and numerous reports have said India has placed an initial order for 200 million Novavax doses. Novavax has 3 markets in India: 1) Primary shots for people over 18 who have not been vaccinated; 2) Primary shots for people under 18. 3) Boosters for all ages. Recently India's Covid vaccine advisory body had a preliminary consensus that boosters should be of a vaccine different from any of the vaccines India used in 2021 for the first two doses. A health official said Covovax (the Novavax vaccine) is "a leading contender to become a booster dose for those who have been administered Covishield (the AstraZeneca vaccine)." This week one of India's health ministers said because domestic data has not come in yet on mixing vaccines, it will initially do boosters for the most vulnerable people using matched boosting. He said they'd make further assessments on mixing later. When the data comes in, I think there's a fair likelihood they'll do mixing for multiple reasons including: a) Data from the EU, UK and Canada as well as US data shows mixing provides better immunity; b) It's far easier logistically. c) It's less confusing. E.g. If a clinic has one vaccine but not another, they'll have to turn people away. d) Some people forget which vaccine they got or lose their records. e) The countries that are the leaders in health have gone with mixing. f) Many Indian experts favor mixing. A recent UK study showed Novavax and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) were the two strongest boosters for people who received AstraZeneca, as they gave "far higher levels of neutralising antibodies and T-cells." Novavax gave the highest level of T-cells. Moderna requires frozen transport and frozen storage, and so is not suitable for developing countries. Also, Moderna shots in the study used double the dose of their actual booster shot, so real life immune responses will likely be much lower for Moderna than the study showed. Thus, many Indian experts favor using Novavax/Covovax to boost AstraZeneca recipients, including a member of the government's Covid working group and also the former head of the advisory group to the Indian SARS-COV-2 Genomics Consortia. About 1.17 billion (90%) of the 1.3 billion doses given in India so far have been AstraZeneca, which achieved only 63% efficacy in trials. Realizing how weak the shots are, the UK is not using AstraZeneca for boosting at all. It is switching entirely to other vaccines. The people eligible early on for boosters in India make up only about 6% of the people who already received two doses. Also, 40% of India is under 18, and most are not yet eligible for vaccination. India has 465 million people aged 2 to 18. Due to the big size of this market, SII has been doing a comprehensive Novavax domestic trial in 3 age groups from 2 to 18 since mid-2021. The CEO of SII expects to capture a large amount of those age markets using Novavax, and that they should not get AstraZeneca. He said Novavax has "shown excellent data" in those age groups. In September, he said the vaccine might be approved for the oldest group 12 to 18 by January or February because the trial started with that group. 3 months is the minimum period of Indian pediatric trials. In November and December, he said in under 6 months the vaccine would be available for all 3 groups. India requires companies to do domestic trials for those groups, and most other companies haven't started them. For those and other reasons I describe below, I think the India total for 2022 will be more than 400 million, but you're welcome to plug in your own estimate. The chart of existing orders has 200 million since that's what been reported so far. If SII gets 33% of people 2 to 18, it would be 153.5 people and 307 million doses. SII got 90% of the over 18 market using a lower efficacy vaccine, so I think it will likely get at least 40% of the under 18 market, which is 186 million people and 372 million doses. The total doses in APAs for 2022 is about 1.7 billion, as not all of the EU doses are guaranteed. Numerous EU countries have recently said they've placed orders for Novavax and people say they are eager for them including here, here, and here. The Novavax supply is split among the 27 EU countries on a per capita basis. If any EU country doesn't place an order that uses up their allotment, other countries can take their supply for their own use or to donate.
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**Conclusion: Strong buy, highly undervalued** The vaccine is selling for $20 to $21 to high-income countries, $3 to $6 to low-income countries and in the middle for middle-income countries. I think the average will be $11 to $12. But to be somewhat conservative, let's use $10. From there, I think pretty much all back-of-the-envelope calculations and complex valuation models that are reasonable result in a share price that's far higher than now. For example, 2.5 billion doses at $10 would be $25B in revenues. At a 60% margin, this would be $15B in 2022 earnings. At a 50% margin, it would be $12.5B in earnings. At a 40% margin, $10B in earnings. If you cap EU doses at 50 million and estimate only 150 million for India and 100 million for the other countries, that plus the APA sales would be 2 billion doses. That times $10 is $20B in revenues. At a 60% margin, it would be $12B in 2022 earnings. At a 50% margin, $10B in earnings. At a 40% margin, $8B in earnings. Vaccine sales already increased its cash position from $100M in early 2020 to about $2B now. Its valuation is now only $10.9B. So its cash at the end of 2022 should be close to the current market cap. You also need to factor in future Covid sales, Nanoflu sales and likely sales of its combination Covid-flu vaccine and its RSV vaccines. Also adjuvant revenues from the malaria vaccine that's launching in 1 1/2 years. The 1 billion extra doses per year by SII are being bought on a contracted fee per dose basis, so Novavax keeps 100% of the profits. Even on the licensed doses, Novavax gets 50% of the profits with pretty much no expense or effort. In the numbers above, for simplicity sake I'm using the price countries are paying, then showing different levels of average profit margins for your consideration. Novavax is keeping all profits on all sales to high-income countries except Japan and Korea. At a production cost of $2 to $4 depending on the location, and a sale price of $20.5, Novavax makes $16.5 to $18.5 per dose on those sales, with the exception of the US, which is paying $17.6 per dose. That's a gross profit margin of 80% to 90%. That covers a lot of expenses and gives a strong net margin. Therefore, I think a net margin of 50% is reasonable, and my base case is them making $12.5B in earnings on sales of 2.5 billion doses at an average price of $10. If margins come in 5% to 10% lower than 50%, I think this could be offset by the average selling price possibly coming in 5% to 10% higher than $10, with the same total earnings. The previously strongest flu vaccine, Fluzone, had $2.9B in flu revenues in 2020. As the strongest flu vaccine and with SII producing it at low cost and selling it worldwide, I forecast Nanoflu will have a third of the $9.5B 2027 market, which is $3.17B. Biotechs on average trade at a price to sales multiple of about 8. So Novavax's valuation on Nanoflu alone could be about $25.4B, more than double its current valuation. The cash from 2022 Covid earnings could add another $8B to $15B in valuation. Add in the value of future Covid sales. Related, a multivalent vaccine is increasingly likely to be needed, and I think Novavax would be the leader there because its technology is ideally suited for it. Add some value for likely future RSV sales. I'm not even going to add all of the above up because the number would be so high it would look incredible. For now, I will simply maintain my price target of $442 because that's a high enough return for a very bullish outlook. Likewise, if you apply the same 2022 sales or earnings multiples to Novavax as Moderna or BionTech have, the share price would be between 300% and 800% higher than now. Even if you add in no Covid sales past 2022, the Novavax valuation should be higher than now based on the cash they'll have by late December and their pipeline that is close to commercializing Nanoflu. Therefore, Novavax's large number of APAs plus pipeline gives it an excellent safety net. As investors start to figure that out, and as they realize that production is far more on track than they think, I think the stock price will go dramatically higher. I recommend being very overweight now so you can take some profits as it goes higher.
**10 advantages of Novavax's vaccine should lead to additional orders** As of now, no countries in Latin America, the Caribbean or Middle East have placed orders. Many Asian countries also have not. When estimating the size of orders from India and other countries, we should consider the many advantages of the Novavax vaccine including: 1) The highest efficacy against the original strain: 96.4% to 100%; 2) Strong cross-protection, resulting in the highest efficacy against variants: 90% to 93%; 3) The highest level of neutralizing antibodies, which is a sizable factor in how many months a vaccine's protection lasts. 4) Low rates of temporary side effects; 5) Milder side effects; 6) No safety problems. The RNA vaccines have rates of myocarditis that are far above average levels in people under 30. The adeno vaccines have two types of blood clots, anaphylaxis, hypersensitivity and Guillain Barre Syndrome. 7) Doesn't require frozen transport or frozen storage; 8) Very easy to administer. No mixing by pharmacists is needed. 9) Far lower cost to produce than RNA vaccines. 10) It uses a tried-and-true traditional approach that is more appealing to the vaccine-hesitant. Some countries are not allowing people under 30 to receive RNA vaccines due to the heart risk. Experts in other countries are recommending that people under 30 not use RNA for the same reason. Moreover, 50% of the world is less than 30 years old. So for half of the market, RNA vaccines are not a good approach when an equally effective protein vaccine is available without that problem. Vaccines that require cold-chain storage including Sputnik and RNA vaccines like the vaccine by Pfizer are a poor fit for developing countries. For this reason, many hospitals in India have cancelled their orders for Sputnik. Clinics and doctor's offices are even less able to do cold storage. RNA vaccines are also not cost-competitive in low and middle-income countries (LIMCs), where SII can produce traditional vaccines like Novavax for far less. Also, SII has long-term pre-existing sales and distribution relationships with most of the LIMCs. Orders for AstraZeneca have dried up due to its subpar efficacy, weak durability and blood clotting. I think the same will occur to the Chinese vaccines due to their weak efficacy and durability. Therefore, I expect that some middle-income countries that have used AstraZeneca and Chinese vaccines so far will place orders in the coming months. I also expect many of the high-income countries that have not yet placed Novavax orders (such as the oil-producing Arab states) to place orders. Good candidates are Brazil, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, Mexico, Thailand, Pakistan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt). The combined population of those countries is 1.18 billion. I forecast they and other countries will place orders that total about 400 million doses. If only the countries above were to order 400 million, it would vaccinate 200 million people, or 17% of their people. Of course, doses will probably be used for a combination of primary vaccinations and boosters. Many will be getting some Novavax doses via Covax, but those are split among 160 countries, so each country will get only a limited amount. If new countries order 400 million, India orders the same and the EU gets 100 million, the total would be 2.58 billion. My total estimate is a little below that at 2.5 billion. Between SII making 2 billion, and Novavax's 8 other antigen factories, I think they'll be able to make much more than 2.5 billion in 2022. Plus I expect they made at least 300 million last year. If you want to revise my estimate of 2.5 billion doses in sales, you can take the 1.7 billion of 2022 APA doses, and do estimates for: a) India b) EU doses above the minimum; and c) all new countries.
**Monster 2022 revenues** Most countries in the world accept authorizations by any one of the 4 major drug agencies: the EU, the UK or the WHO. Novavax has already received it from the WHO and the EU, so I expect the majority of other countries to do the same soon. India's EUA for its 1.3 billion people means 30% of the world is already directly authorized for it. Another 36% have access through the WHO's EUL. A full breakdown is here. India's recent approval for SII to ship large amounts of doses to Australia and New Zealand indicates they will also give EUA soon. Some bears and short-sellers claim the ability of Novavax to sell doses is a major risk. But as the chart below shows, there are already orders for 2.07 billion doses. 100 million of the EU order would be for 2023 and about 10 to 20 million doses probably shipped to Indonesia last year, so the total for 2022 is about 1.95 billion doses. About 1.7 billion of these are Advance Purchase Agreements (APAs) between buyers and Novavax or its partners. These usually can't be cancelled except in highly unusual situations such as cases of fraud, acts of God or material breach of contract. For the latter, usually the buyer must give the seller written notice of the breach, and the seller has 30 days to remedy it. Some APAs have a maximum delivery date, but the majority do not. For those that do, based on when Novavax signed its APAs, I think it will be able to meet those, plus countries can agree to extend them. Also, most APAs include significant up-front payments to go towards at-risk manufacturing. Even if a vaccine is never approved, the company only has to refund money it hasn't yet spent. I will delve into APAs more deeply in the future, including with links to APAs. The only large order listed below that's not an APA is India. But India has already given EUA to Novavax, and numerous reports have said India has placed an initial order for 200 million Novavax doses. Novavax has 3 markets in India: 1) Primary shots for people over 18 who have not been vaccinated; 2) Primary shots for people under 18. 3) Boosters for all ages. Recently India's Covid vaccine advisory body had a preliminary consensus that boosters should be of a vaccine different from any of the vaccines India used in 2021 for the first two doses. A health official said Covovax (the Novavax vaccine) is "a leading contender to become a booster dose for those who have been administered Covishield (the AstraZeneca vaccine)." This week one of India's health ministers said because domestic data has not come in yet on mixing vaccines, it will initially do boosters for the most vulnerable people using matched boosting. He said they'd make further assessments on mixing later. When the data comes in, I think there's a fair likelihood they'll do mixing for multiple reasons including: a) Data from the EU, UK and Canada as well as US data shows mixing provides better immunity; b) It's far easier logistically. c) It's less confusing. E.g. If a clinic has one vaccine but not another, they'll have to turn people away. d) Some people forget which vaccine they got or lose their records. e) The countries that are the leaders in health have gone with mixing. f) Many Indian experts favor mixing. A recent UK study showed Novavax and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) were the two strongest boosters for people who received AstraZeneca, as they gave "far higher levels of neutralising antibodies and T-cells." Novavax gave the highest level of T-cells. Moderna requires frozen transport and frozen storage, and so is not suitable for developing countries. Also, Moderna shots in the study used double the dose of their actual booster shot, so real life immune responses will likely be much lower for Moderna than the study showed. Thus, many Indian experts favor using Novavax/Covovax to boost AstraZeneca recipients, including a member of the government's Covid working group and also the former head of the advisory group to the Indian SARS-COV-2 Genomics Consortia. About 1.17 billion (90%) of the 1.3 billion doses given in India so far have been AstraZeneca, which achieved only 63% efficacy in trials. Realizing how weak the shots are, the UK is not using AstraZeneca for boosting at all. It is switching entirely to other vaccines. The people eligible early on for boosters in India make up only about 6% of the people who already received two doses. Also, 40% of India is under 18, and most are not yet eligible for vaccination. India has 465 million people aged 2 to 18. Due to the big size of this market, SII has been doing a comprehensive Novavax domestic trial in 3 age groups from 2 to 18 since mid-2021. The CEO of SII expects to capture a large amount of those age markets using Novavax, and that they should not get AstraZeneca. He said Novavax has "shown excellent data" in those age groups. In September, he said the vaccine might be approved for the oldest group 12 to 18 by January or February because the trial started with that group. 3 months is the minimum period of Indian pediatric trials. In November and December, he said in under 6 months the vaccine would be available for all 3 groups. India requires companies to do domestic trials for those groups, and most other companies haven't started them. For those and other reasons I describe below, I think the India total for 2022 will be more than 400 million, but you're welcome to plug in your own estimate. The chart of existing orders has 200 million since that's what been reported so far. If SII gets 33% of people 2 to 18, it would be 153.5 people and 307 million doses. SII got 90% of the over 18 market using a lower efficacy vaccine, so I think it will likely get at least 40% of the under 18 market, which is 186 million people and 372 million doses. The total doses in APAs for 2022 is about 1.7 billion, as not all of the EU doses are guaranteed. Numerous EU countries have recently said they've placed orders for Novavax and people say they are eager for them including here, here, and here. The Novavax supply is split among the 27 EU countries on a per capita basis. If any EU country doesn't place an order that uses up their allotment, other countries can take their supply for their own use or to donate.
I am with you man. But I strongly believe that there will be a come back. As soon as SII starts to deliver to the Indian government it is gonna go up to 250 I believe.
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This has been trading on “buy the rumor, sell the new”. The rumor is that SII will be used for FDA filing. I have read the source news comments and the CEO did not directly say that. I have also spoken to someone with much experience here who also doubts that was the meaning. It could be that SII is used for FDA, but there is significant probability that is not the case. If the FDA filing has surprises, it will break the trend if there is any sanity left.
Fear and hysetria aside let's talk about some opportunities: Looking at the current situation and where we are heading isn't Novovax (NVAX) a good bet: To all those countries which administered AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccine two doses, there is a possibility that Novovax will be recommended based on immune response and related research. Reason being if you get two doses of AZ vaccine there is a high chance your body will be immune against the ChAdOx1 vector in AZ (anti-vector immunity takes place as homologous vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine is applied and interferes with vaccine efficacy) won't boost your immune response as required (which booster dose is supposed to do). Now manufacture of Novovax has been licenced to Serum Institue of India (SII privately held) under the brand name Covovax. Novovax might get EU approval mostly by next week or by end of this month Variants and mutation will keep emerging which is natural and is part of Virus life cycle. Hopefully the mutation don't lead to a new strain.
Their most optimistic capacity estimates are more like 150M a month. Whether or not they can sell 150M when SII is selling their AZ knockoff to COVAX for like $3 remains to be seen.
SII was not in reference to any Ticker, but has been removed anyways.
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Its 3am and few people, ima share a secret Sprott $SII is the play. Its gonna be $100 in a couple of months, guaranteed 10-50 bagger. It broke resistance and trending up. Sii calls if you like tendies
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SII Looking kinda good...
Right. Just bought 11 shares of SII. I guess we'll see how this goes.
Since the guidelines and auto mods keep f*cking taking this down, and all I want are some freaking answers: What tf are calls and puts??? Concept seems simple, but I don’t understand why my SII call was going well today, but then dropped down to $.01… I’ve got no idea
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I'm looking at the SII Etf. Confused about what. Looking at this play. Id go with equity over Etf.
**Ticker SII** Spam: True Last Seen Market Cap: 0 Is SPAC: None
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[https://qz.com/india/2004105/serums-adar-poonawalla-has-left-india-amid-a-raging-pandemic/](https://qz.com/india/2004105/serums-adar-poonawalla-has-left-india-amid-a-raging-pandemic/) "Ponawalla, the CEO of Serum Institute of India (SII) that manufactures the AstraZeneca vaccine, has moved to the UK with his family for “an extended period of time,” according to [an interview in The Times](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/adar-poonawalla-aggression-over-covid-vaccines-is-overwhelming-everyone-expects-to-get-theirs-first-bfqbgcm96) (paywall) today (May 1). He did so just as the [UK put India on its “red list”](https://qz.com/1998580/will-other-countries-copy-the-uks-india-travel-ban/) and banned all travellers from the country. Poonawalla said he made the move because there was a grave threat to his life in India." WTAF
Would be surprised by that...has to be covid related and EUA in USA, UK or EU, or production with SII related?
Oh snap, missed that. Care to share the context? India/SII, j&j alternative, soemthing else?
Sprott is just a much of a “scam” as SLV. You think they don’t also take inverse positions to remain market neutral to the spot price of silver? Look at $SII Sprott, Inc. and you’ll see huge spikes in the stock anytime the spot price of silver dips. This is not a play to make money, but a desperate attempt to crash FIAT currency by deranged Qanon fools. It isn’t going to work for a number of reasons and a tour through any of the silver subs will show you most of them don’t even understand what the silver squeeze pipe dream will actually do to their lives. This is not a play to make money.
Isn’t that just Novavax’s vaccine but manufactured by SII?
NASA disagrees with you: Hydrogen has a very broad f lammability range—a 4 percent to 74 percent concentration in air and 4 percent to 94 percent in oxygen; therefore, keeping air or oxygen from mixing with hydrogen inside confined spaces is very important. Also, it requires only 0.02 millijoules of energy to ignite the hydrogen–air mixture, which is less than 7 percent of the energy needed to ignite natural gas. That is why a burn pond using a 1-in. water seal was considered safer than a flare stack. Experience over the next several years showed us that keeping air out of the vent system was difficult and required strict procedural control and maintenance. More often than not, fears about the potential for explosions were justified. Designers at Kennedy Space Center were concerned about using a hydrogen flare stack to manage waste hydrogen because they believed air could enter it and lead to an explosion. During the developmental testing of the SII stage of the Saturn V moon rocket at the Mississippi Test Facility (now Stennis Space Center), their concern was validated.
>PSLV, SILJ, SII > >Are any of these "preferred" ?
I have a few just because I hate selling options to rotate into other things due to the terrible bid/ask. Since then I've bought shares and calls on PSLV, SILJ, SIL, and even SII